Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

The decision to prepare a Fifth Assessment Report was taken by the IPCC at its 28th Panel Session in April 2008. The IPCC has started work on the preparation of the AR5 and is currently looking for experts who can act as authors and review editors for the contributions of the three Working Groups to the AR5.

At the 31st Session of the IPCC (26-29 October 2009 • Bali, Indonesia), the outlines and schedule for the contributions of the three Working Groups to the Fifth Assessment Report were agreed. The outlines were developed through a scoping process involving climate change experts from all relevant disciplines and users of IPCC reports, in particular representatives from governments, who gathered for the Scoping Meeting in July 2009 in Venice, Italy.

AR5 NOMINATION PROCESS

Governments and participating organizations are invited to nominate experts who can act as Coordinating Lead Authors (CLA), Lead Authors (LA)  and  Review Editors (RE) for the AR5. The nomination period is open from: 15 January to 12 March 2010.

  Letter to Governments (PDF)

  Letter to Organizations (PDF)

The task of IPCC authors is a demanding one and requires the appropriate expertise. We largely rely on focal points to identify the best experts in their country or organization. LAs are responsible for the production of designated sections of the reports on the basis of the best scientific, technical and socio-economic information available. CLAs take the overall responsibility for coordinating major sections of a Report and REs ensure that all substantive expert and government review comments are afforded appropriate consideration. The selection of experts will be carried out by the Working Group Bureaux and finalized at the next Session of the IPCC Bureau in May 2010. Governments will then be informed about the list of those chosen for each chapter. 

If you wish to nominate experts please follow this link

If you are interested in contributing to the IPCC AR5 but do not know who is the Focal Point for your country or organization, please contact IPCC-Sec@wmo.int, indicating clearly in the subject line “enquiry about AR5 nomination”. However, please do not submit any applications to that mailbox.

For a detailed description of procedures and nomination process, please consult:

  Principles Governing IPCC work (PDF)

  Procedures for the Preparation of IPCC Reports (PDF)

Simplified guidance document for Focal Points (PDF)

AR5 SCHEDULE, OUTLINES AND RELEVANT GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS

  Working Group I Outline: The Physical Science Basis (PDF)

  Working Group II Outline: Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability (PDF)

  Working Group III Outline: Mitigation of Climate Change (PDF)

  Concept notes on cross-cutting issues agreed by the Panel (PDF)

  AR5 Expert Meetings and Workshops planned in support of the assessment process (PDF)

The Working Group I report is scheduled to be finalized in September 2013, the Working Group II report in March 2014 and the Working Group III report in April 2014. The scope and content of the AR5 Synthesis Report will be developed in the course of the year 2010. The Synthesis Report is scheduled to be finalized in September 2014.

A short summary description of the AR5 outline, as well as of new features and areas of emphasis is provided in this AR5 leaflet (PDF).

Further information about the AR5 scoping process and other Panel decisions can be found in documentation for and reports of recent Panel Sessions.

Special Reports

Two Special Reports are currently under preparation. As far all Special Reports, their preparation follows the same procedures as for the Assessment Reports.

The Special Report on “Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation” is carried out under the leadership of the IPCC Working Group III and will be released in 2010. The first Lead authors meeting has been held in January 2009 in San Jose, Brazil, and a second one will convene at the end of August.
 
This Special Report aims to provide a better understanding and broader information on the mitigation potential of renewable energy sources: technological feasibility, economic potential and market status, economic and environmental costs&benefits, impacts on energy security, co-benefits in achieving sustainable development, opportunities and synergies, options and constraints for integration into the energy supply systems and in the societies. It will also assess resources by region and impacts of climate change on these resources.

The report is structured with technology chapters - bio-energy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy - which will feed into the overarching chapters. A system integration chapter will be a key one, bringing all different aspects of energy demand and supply together. The report will finally consider the policy options, outcomes and conditions for effectiveness, and how the accelerated deployment could be achieved in a sustainable manner. Capacity building, technology transfer and financing in different regions will be assessed.

For more information, please consult the report of the scoping meeting (Luebeck, Germany, January 2008) and Working Group III webpages (outline and list of lead authors).

The preparation of the Special Report on “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” commenced as its outline was approved by the Panel at its 30th Session last April.

This Special Report will consider three types of extreme events: the ones for which climate change has or will amplify occurrence - as floods and droughts; the ones in which trends outside the domain of climate will increase exposure or vulnerability to climate-related extremes - for instance coastal development increasing exposure to storm surges; and new kinds of potentially hazardous events and conditions that may occur as a result of climate change - such as glacial lakes outburst. The report will include 9 chapters. Three of them will focus on  managing the risk at different levels in the society: community based responses; national scale and international responses. Two main case studies will be carried out throughout all chapters, while the last chapter will be entirely dedicated to case studies. The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) will participate in the preparation of the report which is planned to be released in 2011.
 
For more information, please consult the Scoping Paper of the meeting (Oslo, Norway, March 2009) and Working Group II webpages (approved outline and list of lead authors)

Methodology Reports

Since 1992 the IPCC has been preparing methodologies and guidelines to assist Parties to the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol to prepare national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks. The last major publication was the “2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories”. Currently the Task Force on Inventories is developing software for the 2006 Guidelines and producing other material to assist users of the guidelines. It maintains also the Emissions Factor Database (EFDB).

TGICA and DDC

The Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA) facilitates distribution and application of climate change related data and scenarios. The TGICA oversees a Data Distribution Centre (DDC) which provides data sets, scenarios of climate change and other environmental and socio-economic conditions, and other materials (e.g., technical guidelines on the use of scenarios). The TGICA contributes to building capacity in the use of data and scenarios for climate-related research in developing and transition-economy regions and countries. The TGICA also convenes expert meetings on an as needed basis.

Since the TGICA was established in 1996, a great deal has changed regarding needs and services for data and scenarios. Most significantly, the community of users has evolved from a relatively small group of researchers focusing on global-scale modeling of the impacts of climate change, to a large and diverse set of actors all across the world, including national, state/provincial, and local entities, business and industry, non-governmental organizations, and community groups, as well as through the UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme on adaptation. The more diverse group of users has a far more diverse set of data and scenario needs, including data products more appropriate to settings with limited computational, communications, and research capacity. The process for preparation of scenarios has also changed, and has become a more open, interdisciplinary process with a larger number of interactions across the climate modeling, impacts/adaptation/vulnerability, and integrated assessment modeling communities. These changes provide new challenges and opportunities for the TGICA.

During the process of preparing the Fifth Assessment Report, the TGICA and DDC will provide a "one-stop repository" for data from IPCC sources, quality controlled and carefully vetted, and operating within a mandate from the IPCC. In addition, it will provide pointers to other centers and groups for data beyond its current holdings but needed for impacts, adaptation, and mitigation assessments. Specifically the Task Group and DDC will continue to focus on:  1. Archiving/distributing new data from scenarios on both long and intermediate-term projections as they come on line from the new scenario development process.

2. Pointing to high resolution observational data sets—with guidance on their use in observed impacts analyses.

3. Pointing to regional high-level resolution information beyond GCMs.

4. Providing and pointing to updated socio-economic information at scales needed for impacts, adaptation, and mitigation assessments.

5. Providing and pointing to other environmental information on sea level, storm surge, air pollution, and other issues.

6. Developing, providing, and pointing to resources such as technical guidelines and exemplar studies at different scales, showing how different assessments have been carried out.

7. Continuing to plan and hold expert meetings and workshops that advance the state of research and assessment, and that contribute to building an improved basis of information for future IPCC assessments.

Development of new Scenarios

Scenarios of potential future anthropogenic climate change, underlying driving forces, and response options have been an important component of IPCC work. In  the past the IPCC coordinated the process of developing scenarios for its assessments (see AR 1990, SR 1994 and SRES 2000). In 2006 the IPCC decided that rather than directly coordinating and approving scenarios the process of scenario development should be coordinated by the scientific community. The IPCC would catalyze the timely production of new scenarios for a possible use in its AR5. To this end an expert meeting was held from 19-21 September 2007 in Noorwijkerhout, the Netherlands (Report of the meeting) which considered the plans by the scientific community and agreed representative concentration pathways. The meeting was attended by experts on integrated assessment (IAM), impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research (IAV) and climate modelling (CM). The agreement on a parallel process for scenario development and the schedule for delivering products became important for the decision by the Panel on the schedule of the AR5.

Scenario development and user needs were also addressed in earlier meeting (Washington 2005, Laxenburg 2005, Seville 2006).

The early identification of a set of “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs) facilitates coordination of new integrated socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios. The main rationale for beginning with RCPs is to expedite the development of a broad literature of new and integrated scenarios by allowing the modeling of climate system responses to human activities to proceed in parallel to emissions scenario development. The timeline of key scenario development products is displayed here.  (CMC refers to the Climate Modeling Community)

Information and outreach activities

The IPCC is currently engaged in disseminating the findings of its Fourth Assessment Report among various audiences and regions. The IPCC Chairman. other Bureau members and IPCC experts are invited to make presentations in important national and international conferences and meetings. The IPCC also organizes outreach events, for example during COP 14 in Poznan last December and in Bonn during the Climate Change Talks last June. The IPCC is also happy to assist any academic, civil, business and international organization, local or national government to develop communication opportunities and information products based on the IPCC scientific findings.