Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

The decision to prepare a Fifth Assessment Report was taken by the IPCC at its 28th Panel Session in April 2008. The IPCC has started work on the preparation of the AR5 and is currently looking for experts who can act as authors and review editors for the contributions of the three Working Groups to the AR5.

SELECTION OF AUTHORS AND REVIEW EDITORS

Under IPCC procedures, Governments and participating organisations are invited to nominate experts that can serve as authors, expert reviewers and review editors for the particular report being prepared. The composition of lead author teams shall reflect a range of views, expertise and geographical representation. The nomination period for AR5 authors was open from 15 January to 12 March 2010.

Coordinating Lead Authors (CLA), Lead Authors (LA) and Review Editors (REs) were selected by the relevant Working Group Bureaux from the nominations received. The Bureaux also identified experts known through their publications and works. Click here for more information on the nomination process.

    IPCC WG I AR5 Authors List   (258 experts)     
    IPCC WG II AR5 Authors List   (302 experts)     
    IPCC WG III AR5 Authors List   (271 experts)     
 

AR5 SCHEDULE, OUTLINES AND RELEVANT GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS

  Working Group I Outline: The Physical Science Basis (PDF)

  Working Group II Outline: Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability (PDF)

  Working Group III Outline: Mitigation of Climate Change (PDF)

  Concept notes on cross-cutting issues agreed by the Panel (PDF)

  AR5 Expert Meetings and Workshops planned in support of the assessment process (PDF)

The Working Group I report is scheduled to be finalized in September 2013, the Working Group II report in March 2014 and the Working Group III report in April 2014. The scope and content of the AR5 Synthesis Report will be developed in the course of the year 2010. The Synthesis Report is scheduled to be finalized in September 2014.

A short summary description of the AR5 outline, as well as of new features and areas of emphasis is provided in this AR5 leaflet (PDF).

Further information about the AR5 scoping process and other Panel decisions can be found in documentation for and reports of recent Panel Sessions.

Special Reports

Two Special Reports are currently under preparation. As far all Special Reports, their preparation follows the same procedures as for the Assessment Reports.

Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation

At the 28th Session (9-10 April, 2008) the Panel approved the development of a Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) by Working Group III. Please see the SRREN outline and list of lead authors. For more information, please consult the report of the scoping meeting (Luebeck, Germany, January 2008) and the Working Group III webpages.

The Special Report on 'Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation' (SRREN) will be released in early 2011. The first Lead Authors meeting has been held from 26-30 January 2009 in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil, and a second convened in Oslo, Norway from 1-4 September 2009.

On March 2-5th, 2010 the IPCC Working Group III held the Third Lead Author Meeting (LA3) hosted by the University of Oxford, in Oxford, United Kingdom. During the LA3, Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors as well as Review Editors, discussed how expert review comments would be taken into account by each chapter to produce the Second Order Draft (SOD).

On 18 June 2010, the Second Order Draft (SOD) of the SRREN went out for Government and Expert Review. Governments will comment on the accuracy and completeness of the scientific/technical / socio-economic content and the overall scientific technical / socio-economic balance of the draft. They have an eight week period to submit comments, which will then be discussed and incorporated during the 4th SRREN Lead Author Meeting (LA4) to be held in Mexico from September 20th-24th, 2010. The deadline for submission of comments is 16 August 2010.

Following LA4, the final draft Report will be prepared and submitted for acceptance to the Working Group III Session in the United Arab Emirates, which will take place February 21-23rd, 2011.

This Special Report aims to provide a better understanding and broader information on the mitigation potential of renewable energy sources: technological feasibility, economic potential and market status, economic and environmental costs & benefits, impacts on energy security, co-benefits in achieving sustainable development, opportunities and synergies, options and constraints for integration into the energy supply systems and in the societies. It will also assess resources by region and impacts of climate change on these resources.

The report is structured with technology chapters - bio-energy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy - which will feed into the overarching chapters. A system integration chapter will be a key one, bringing all different aspects of energy demand and supply together. The report will finally consider the policy options, outcomes and conditions for effectiveness, and how the accelerated deployment could be achieved in a sustainable manner. Capacity building, technology transfer and financing in different regions will be assessed.

Special Report on 'Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation'

At its 30th Session (20-23 April 2009) the Panel of the IPCC decided to prepare this Special Report; see approved outline and list of lead authors for this Special Report. For more information, please consult the Scoping Paper, the Scoping Meeting Proceedings, and the IPCC Working Group II web pages.

The preparation of the Special Report on 'Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation' commenced when its outline was approved by the Panel at its 30th Session last April.

Working Group II will oversee preparation of the assessment. The first Lead Authors Meeting was held at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (Panama City, Panama), 9-12 November 2009. The Second Lead Authors Meeting was held at the Vietnam National University (Hanoi, Vietnam), 22-25 March 2010. The expert review period will be 26 July to 20 September 2010 for the First Order Draft of the report. Then the Third Lead Authors Meeting will be held at the WMO (Geneva, Switzerland), 25-28 October 2010.

Methodology Reports

Since 1992 the IPCC has been preparing methodologies and guidelines to assist Parties to the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol to prepare national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks. The last major publication was the “2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories”.Currently the Task Force on Inventories is developing software for the2006 Guidelines and producing other material to assist users of theguidelines. It maintains also the Emissions Factor Database (EFDB).

TGICA and DDC

The Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA) facilitates distribution and application of climate change related data and scenarios. The TGICA oversees a Data Distribution Centre (DDC) which provides data sets, scenarios of climate change and other environmental and socio-economic conditions, and other materials (e.g., technical guidelines on the use of scenarios). The TGICA contributes to building capacity in the use of data and scenarios for climate-related research in developing and transition-economy regions and countries. The TGICA also convenes expert meetings on an as needed basis.

Since the TGICA was established in 1996, a great deal has changed regarding needs and services for data and scenarios. Most significantly, the community of users has evolved from a relatively small group of researchers focusing on global-scale modeling of the impacts of climate change, to a large and diverse set of actors all across the world, including national, state/provincial, and local entities, business and industry, non-governmental organizations, and community groups, as well as through the UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme on adaptation. The more diverse group of users has a far more diverse set of data and scenario needs, including data products more appropriate to settings with limited computational, communications, and research capacity. The process for preparation of scenarios has also changed, and has become a more open, interdisciplinary process with a larger number of interactions across the climate modeling, impacts/adaptation/vulnerability, and integrated assessment modeling communities. These changes provide new challenges and opportunities for the TGICA.

During the process of preparing the Fifth Assessment Report, the TGICAand DDC will provide a "one-stop repository" for datafrom IPCC sources, quality controlled and carefully vetted, andoperating within a mandate from the IPCC. In addition, it will providepointers to other centers and groups for data beyond its currentholdings but needed for impacts, adaptation, and mitigationassessments. Specifically the Task Group and DDC will continue to focuson:  1. Archiving/distributing new data from scenarios on both long andintermediate-term projections as they come on line from the newscenario development process.

2. Pointing to high resolution observational data sets—with guidance on their use in observed impacts analyses.

3. Pointing to regional high-level resolution information beyond GCMs.

4. Providing and pointing to updated socio-economic information at scales needed for impacts, adaptation, and mitigation assessments.

5. Providing and pointing to other environmental information on sea level, storm surge, air pollution, and other issues.

6. Developing, providing, and pointing to resources such as technical guidelines and exemplar studies at different scales, showing how different assessments have been carried out.

7. Continuing to plan and hold expert meetings and workshops that advance the state of research and assessment, and that contribute to building an improved basis of information for future IPCC assessments.

Development of new Scenarios

Scenarios of potential future anthropogenic climate change, underlying driving forces, and response options have been an important component of IPCC work. In  the past the IPCC coordinated the process of developing scenarios for its assessments (see AR 1990, SR 1994 and SRES 2000). In 2006 the IPCC decided that rather than directly coordinating and approving scenarios the process of scenario development should be coordinated by the scientific community. The IPCC would catalyze the timely production of new scenarios for a possible use in its AR5. To this end an expert meeting was held from 19-21 September 2007 in Noorwijkerhout, the Netherlands (Report of the meeting) which considered the plans by the scientific community and agreed representative concentration pathways. The meeting was attended by experts on integrated assessment (IAM), impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research (IAV) and climate modelling (CM). The agreement on a parallel process for scenario development and the schedule for delivering products became important for the decision by the Panel on the schedule of the AR5.

Scenario development and user needs were also addressed in earlier meeting (Washington 2005, Laxenburg 2005, Seville 2006).

The early identification of a set of“Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs) facilitates coordination ofnew integrated socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios. The mainrationale for beginning with RCPs is to expedite the development of a broadliterature of new and integrated scenarios by allowing the modeling of climatesystem responses to human activities to proceed in parallel to emissionsscenario development. The timeline of key scenario development products is displayed here.  (CMC refers to the Climate Modeling Community)

Information and outreach activities

The IPCC is currently engaged in disseminatingthe findings of its Fourth Assessment Report among various audiences andregions. The IPCC Chairman. other Bureau members and IPCC experts are invited to makepresentations in important national and international conferences andmeetings. The IPCC also organizes outreach events, for exampleduring COP 14 in Poznan last December and in Bonn during the Climate Change Talks last June. The IPCC is also happy to assist anyacademic, civil, business and international organization, local or nationalgovernment to develop communication opportunities and information productsbased on the IPCC scientific findings.