Emissions Scenarios

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4.3.2. A2 Storyline and Scenario Family

The A2 scenario family represents a differentiated world. Compared to the A1 storyline it is characterized by lower trade flows, relatively slow capital stock turnover, and slower technological change. The A2 world "consolidates" into a series of economic regions. Self-reliance in terms of resources and less emphasis on economic, social, and cultural interactions between regions are characteristic for this future. Economic growth is uneven and the income gap between now-industrialized and developing parts of the world does not narrow, unlike in the A1 and B1 scenario families.

The A2 world has less international cooperation than the A1 or B1 worlds. People, ideas, and capital are less mobile so that technology diffuses more slowly than in the other scenario families. International disparities in productivity, and hence income per capita, are largely maintained or increased in absolute terms. With the emphasis on family and community life, fertility rates decline relatively slowly, which makes the A2 population the largest among the storylines (15 billion by 2100). Global average per capita income in A2 is low relative to other storylines (especially A1 and B1), reaching about US$7200 per capita by 2050 and US$16,000 in 2100. By 2100 the global GDP reaches about US$250 trillion. Technological change in the A2 scenario world is also more heterogeneous than that in A1. It is more rapid than average in some regions and slower in others, as industry adjusts to local resource endowments, culture, and education levels. Regions with abundant energy and mineral resources evolve more resource-intensive economies, while those poor in resources place a very high priority on minimizing import dependence through technological innovation to improve resource efficiency and make use of substitute inputs. The fuel mix in different regions is determined primarily by resource availability. High-income but resource-poor regions shift toward advanced post-fossil technologies (renewables or nuclear), while low-income resource-rich regions generally rely on older fossil technologies. Final energy intensities in A2 decline with a pace of 0.5 to 0.7% per year.

In the A2 world, social and political structures diversify; some regions move toward stronger welfare systems and reduced income inequality, while others move toward "leaner" government and more heterogeneous income distributions. With substantial food requirements, agricultural productivity in the A2 world is one of the main focus areas for innovation and research, development, and deployment (RD&D) efforts, and environmental concerns. Initial high levels of soil erosion and water pollution are eventually eased through the local development of more sustainable high-yield agriculture. Although attention is given to potential local and regional environmental damage, it is not uniform across regions. Global environmental concerns are relatively weak, although attempts are made to bring regional and local pollution under control and to maintain environmental amenities.

As in other SRES storylines, the intention in this storyline is not to imply that the underlying dynamics of A2 are either good or bad. The literature suggests that such a world could have many positive aspects from the current perspective, such as the increasing tendency toward cultural pluralism with mutual acceptance of diversity and fundamental differences. Various scenarios from the literature may be grouped under this scenario family. For example, "New Empires" by Schwartz (1991) is an example of a society in which most nations protect their threatened cultural identities. Some regions might achieve relative stability while others suffer under civil disorders (Schwartz, 1996). In "European Renaissance" (de Jong and Zalm, 1991; CPB, 1992), economic growth slows down because of a strengthening of protectionist trade blocks. In "Imperial Harmonization" (Lawrence et al., 1997), major economic blocs impose standards and regulations on smaller countries. The Shell scenario "Global Mercantilism" (1989, see Schwartz, 1991) explores the possibility of regional spheres of influence, whereas "Barricades" (Shell, 1993) reflects resistance to globalization and liberalization of markets. Noting the tensions that arise as societies adopt western technology without western culture, Huntington (1996) suggests that conflicts between civilizations rather than globalizing economies may determine the geo-political future of the world.

4.3.3. B1 Storyline and Scenario Family

The central elements of the B1 future are a high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development. Heightened environmental consciousness might be brought about by clear evidence that impacts of natural resource use, such as deforestation, soil depletion, over-fishing, and global and regional pollution, pose a serious threat to the continuation of human life on Earth. In the B1 storyline, governments, businesses, the media, and the public pay increased attention to the environmental and social aspects of development. Technological change plays an important role. At the same time, however, the storyline does not include any climate policies, to reflect the SRES terms of reference. Nevertheless, such a possible future cannot be ruled out.

The "Conventional Worlds-Policy Reform" scenario by Gallopin et al. (1997) is a good example of such a future, although it includes climate policies. In "Ecotopia," Wilkerson (1995) describes a reaction to early decades of crime and chaos, in which community values triumph over individualist ones and lead to resource-friendly lifestyles based on clean and light technologies. This scenario includes a voluntary embrace of cohesion, cooperation, and reduced consumption, backed by legislation and even corporate policies (Wilkerson, 1995). In the normative "Human Development Success" (Glenn and Gordon, 1997), the world achieves an environmentally sustainable economy by 2050, primarily through education to develop human potential. In "Balanced Future" (de Jong and Zalm, 1991; CPB, 1992), economic equilibrium and innovation lead to sustainable development. The "Ecologically Driven" scenarios by WEC (1993) and IIASA-WEC (Nakic´enovic´ et al., 1998) - with accelerated efficiency improvements in resource use - share several of the characteristics of the B1 type of future, as does the egalitarian utopia scenario in the TARGETS approach (Rotmans and de Vries, 1997).

Many additional scenarios in the literature could be seen as examples of this family, but may describe the changes as more fundamental than those of B1. The "Transformed World" of Hammond (1998), based on the "Great Transitions" scenario of Gallopin et al. (1997), stresses the role of global technological innovation in addition to enlightened corporate actions, government policies, and empowerment of local groups. In "Shared Space" by the Millennium Institute (Glenn and Gordon, 1997), resources are shared more equitably to the benefit of all and the greater safety of humanity. The Shell scenario "Sustainable World" (1989, see Schwartz, 1991) and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development scenarios (WBCSD, 1998), "Geopolity" and "Jazz," examine sustainable futures.

Economic development in B1 is balanced, and efforts to achieve equitable income distribution are effective. As in A1, the B1 storyline describes a fast-changing and convergent world, but the priorities differ. Whereas the A1 world invests its gains from increased productivity and know-how primarily in further economic growth, the B1 world invests a large part of its gains in improved efficiency of resource use ("dematerialization"), equity, social institutions, and environmental protection.

A strong welfare net prevents social exclusion on the basis of poverty. However, counter-currents may develop and in some places people may not conform to the main social and environmental intentions of the mainstream in this scenario family. Massive income redistribution and presumably high taxation levels may adversely affect the economic efficiency and functioning of world markets.

Particular effort is devoted to increases in resource efficiency to achieve the goals stated above. Incentive systems, combined with advances in international institutions, permit the rapid diffusion of cleaner technology. To this end, R&D is also enhanced, together with education and the capacity building for clean and equitable development. Organizational measures are adopted to reduce material wastage by maximizing reuse and recycling. The combination of technical and organizational change yields high levels of material and energy saving, as well as reductions in pollution. Labor productivity also improves as a by-product of these efforts. Alternative scenarios considered within the B1 family include different rates of GDP growth and dematerialization (e.g., decline in energy and material intensities).

The demographic transition to low mortality and fertility occurs at the same rate as in A1, but for different reasons as it is motivated partly by social and environmental concerns. Global population reaches nine billion by 2050 and declines to about seven billion by 2100. This is a world with high levels of economic activity (a global GDP of around US$350 trillion by 2100) and significant and deliberate progress toward international and national income equality. Global income per capita in 2050 averages US$13,000, one-third lower than in A1. A higher proportion of this income is spent on services rather than on material goods, and on quality rather than quantity, because the emphasis on material goods is less and also resource prices are increased by environmental taxation.

The B1 storyline sees a relatively smooth transition to alternative energy systems as conventional oil and gas resources decline. There is extensive use of conventional and unconventional gas as the cleanest fossil resource during the transition, but the major push is toward post-fossil technologies, driven in large part by environmental concerns.

Given the high environmental consciousness and institutional effectiveness in the B1 storyline, environmental quality is high, as most potentially negative environmental aspects of rapid development are anticipated and effectively dealt with locally, nationally, and internationally. For example, transboundary air pollution (acid rain) is basically eliminated in the long term. Land use is managed carefully to counteract the impacts of activities potentially damaging to the environment. Cities are compact and designed for public and non-motorized transport, with suburban developments tightly controlled. Strong incentives for low-input, low-impact agriculture, along with maintenance of large areas of wilderness, contribute to high food prices with much lower levels of meat consumption than those in A1. These proactive local and regional environmental measures and policies also lead to relatively low GHG emissions, even in the absence of explicit interventions to mitigate climate change.

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