18.104.22.168. Scenarios that Consider Forest Change Only
In the IPCC, Land Use, Flexible, and Biome definitional scenarios, the harvest/regeneration
cycle does not create ARD land. ARD land is created only by changes between
forest and non-forest categories.
We assume that the definitions of forest in the IPCC, Land Use, Flexible, and
Biome scenarios are such that mature, unharvested stands in both the high- and
low-productivity forest are considered forest. For the Land Use scenario, we
assume that the observed change in forest cover is associated with an administrative
reclassification of land use. Table 3-11 summarizes
the human activities that create ARD land for each of the three groups of definitional
22.214.171.124. Scenarios in Which the Harvest/Regeneration
Cycle Creates ARD Land
In the FAO and Land Cover definitional scenarios, ARD land is created through
harvest/regeneration cycles, albeit for different reasons. In the FAO scenario,
harvest does not create ARD land; subsequent planting of forests in these areas
creates ARD land. Under the FAO scenario, naturally regenerated areas do not
create ARD land because, for illustrative purposes, we assume that natural regeneration
was not considered DHI. In both scenarios, harvested areas that undergo land-use
change are considered deforested and create ARD land.
In the Land Cover scenario, harvest causes the stand to cross the threshold
of forest cover that is used to define forest. Because any area below the threshold
is considered non-forest, harvest is considered deforestation and creates ARD
land. Thereafter, it does not matter whether a stand is established through
natural regeneration or through planting because the harvested area is already
classified as ARD land.
The definition of reforestation in the Land Cover scenario specifies that a
planted area becomes ARD land when the stand passes the threshold of forest
cover that defines forest (40 percent cover in our example). This definition
of reforestation will cause a delay between the planting activity and the creation
of ARD land. It ensures that no carbon credit or debit is obtained until the
planted area passes the threshold defining a forest.