C.2 Observed Changes in Other Radiatively Important Gases
Atmospheric ozone (O3)
Ozone (O3) is an important greenhouse gas present in both the stratosphere
and troposphere. The role of ozone in the atmospheric radiation budget is
strongly dependent on the altitude at which changes in ozone concentrations occur.
The changes in ozone concentrations are also spatially variable. Further, ozone
is not a directly emitted species, but rather it is formed in the atmosphere from
photochemical processes involving both natural and human-influenced precursor
species. Once formed, the residence time of ozone in the atmosphere is relatively
short, varying from weeks to months. As a result, estimation of ozone's radiative
role is more complex and much less certain than for the above long-lived and globally
well-mixed greenhouse gases.
The observed losses of stratospheric ozone layer over the past two decades
have caused a negative forcing of 0.15 ± 0.1 Wm-2 (i.e., a
tendency toward cooling) of the surface troposphere system. It was reported
in Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment,
that depletion of the ozone layer by anthropogenic halocarbons introduces a
negative radiative forcing. The estimate shown in Figure
9 is slightly larger in magnitude than that given in the SAR, owing to the
ozone depletion that has continued over the past five years, and it is more
certain as a result of an increased number of modelling studies. Studies with
General Circulation Models indicate that, despite the inhomogeneity in ozone
loss (i.e., lower stratosphere at high latitudes), such a negative forcing does
relate to a surface temperature decrease in proportion to the magnitude of the
negative forcing. Therefore, this negative forcing over the past two decades
has offset some of the positive forcing that is occurring from the long-lived
and globally well-mixed greenhouse gases (Figure
9). A major source of uncertainty in the estimation of the negative forcing
is due to incomplete knowledge of ozone depletion near the tropopause. Model
calculations indicate that increased penetration of ultraviolet radiation to
the troposphere, as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion, leads to enhanced
removal rates of gases like CH4, thus amplifying the negative forcing
due to ozone depletion. As the ozone layer recovers in future decades because
of the effects of the Montreal Protocol, relative to the present, future radiative
forcing associated with stratospheric ozone is projected to become positive.
The global average radiative forcing due to increases in tropospheric ozone
since pre-industrial times is estimated to have enhanced the anthropogenic greenhouse
gas forcing by 0.35 ± 0.2 Wm-2. This makes tropospheric
ozone the third most important greenhouse gas after CO2 and CH4.
Ozone is formed by photochemical reactions and its future change will be determined
by, among other things, emissions of CH4 and pollutants (as noted
below). Ozone concentrations respond relatively quickly to changes in the emissions
of pollutants. On the basis of limited observations and several modelling studies,
tropospheric ozone is estimated to have increased by about 35% since the Pre-industrial
Era, with some regions experiencing larger and some with smaller increases.
There have been few observed increases in ozone concentrations in the global
troposphere since the mid-1980s at most of the few remote locations where it
is regularly measured. The lack of observed increase over North America and
Europe is related to the lack of a sustained increase in ozone-precursor emissions
from those continents. However, some Asian stations indicate a possible rise
in tropospheric ozone, which could be related to the increase in East Asian
emissions. As a result of more modelling studies than before, there is now an
increased confidence in the estimates of tropospheric ozone forcing. The confidence,
however, is still much less than that for the well-mixed greenhouse gases, but
more so than that for aerosol forcing. Uncertainties arise because of limited
information on pre-industrial ozone distributions and limited information to
evaluate modelled global trends in the modern era (i.e., post-1960).
Gases with only indirect radiative influences
Several chemically reactive gases, including reactive nitrogen species (NOx),
carbon monoxide (CO), and the volatile organic compounds (VOCs), control, in part,
the oxidising capacity of the troposphere, as well as the abundance of ozone.
These pollutants act as indirect greenhouse gases through their influence not
only on ozone, but also on the lifetimes of CH4 and other greenhouse gases. The
emissions of NOx and CO are dominated by human activities.
Carbon monoxide is identified as an important indirect greenhouse gas.
Model calculations indicate that emission of 100 Mt of CO is equivalent in terms
of greenhouse gas perturbations to the emission of about 5 Mt of CH4.
The abundance of CO in the Northern Hemisphere is about twice that in the Southern
Hemisphere and has increased in the second half of the 20th century along with
industrialisation and population.
The reactive nitrogen species NO and NO2, (whose sum is denoted
NOx), are key compounds in the chemistry of the troposphere, but
their overall radiative impact remains difficult to quantify. The importance
of NOx in the radiation budget is because increases in NOx concentrations
perturb several greenhouse gases; for example, decreases in methane and the
HFCs and increases in tropospheric ozone. Deposition of the reaction products
of NOx fertilises the biosphere, thereby decreasing atmospheric CO2.
While difficult to quantify, increases in NOx that are projected
to the year 2100 would cause significant changes in greenhouse gases.