Climate Change 2001:
Synthesis Report
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Figure SPM-8: Projections of GDP losses and marginal costs in Annex II countries in the year 2010 from global models: (a) GDP losses and (b) marginal costs. The reductions in projected GDP are for the year 2010 relative to the models' reference case GDP. These estimates are based on results from nine modeling teams that participated in an Energy Modeling Forum study. The projections reported in the figure are for four regions that constitute Annex II. The models examined two scenarios. In the first, each region makes the prescribed reduction with only domestic trading in carbon emissions. In the second, Annex B trading is permitted, and thereby marginal costs are equal across regions. For each case or region, the maximum, minimum, and median values across all models of the estimated marginal costs are shown. For the key factors, assumptions, and uncertainties underlying the studies, see Table 7-3 and Box 7-1 in the underlying report.

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