Figure 19: Simple model
results: estimated historical anthropogenic radiative forcing up to the year 2000
followed by radiative forcing for the six illustrative SRES scenarios. The shading
shows the envelope of forcing that encompasses the full set of thirty five SRES
scenarios. The method of calculation closely follows that explained in the chapters.
The values are based on the radiative forcing for a doubling of CO2
from seven AOGCMs. The IS92a, IS92c, and IS92e forcing is also shown following
the same method of calculation. [Based on Figure