Climate Change 2001:
The Scientific Basis
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Figure 25: Projcted CO2 emissions permitting stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at different final values. Panel (a) shows the assumed trajectories of CO2 concentration (WRE scenarios) and panels (b) and (c) show the implied CO2 emissions, as projected with two fast carbon cycle models, Bern-CC and ISAM. The model ranges for ISAM were obtained by tuning the model to approximate the range of responses to CO2 and climate from model intercomparisons. This approach yields a lower bound on uncertainties in the carbon cycle response. The model ranges for Bern-CC were obtained by combining different bounding assumptions about the behaviour of the CO2 fertilisation effect, the response of heterotrophic respiration to temperature and the turnover time of the ocean, thus approaching an upper bound on uncertainties in the carbon cycle response. For each model, the upper and lower bounds are indicated by the top and bottom of the shaded area. Alternatively, the lower bound (where hidden) is indicated by a hatched line. [Based on Figure 3.13]

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