Box 10.1, Figure 1: Analysis
of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming (warming relative to each
model’s global warming). Regions are classified as showing either agreement
on warming in excess of 40% above the global average (Much greater than
average warming’), agreement on warming greater than the global average (Greater
than average warming’), agreement on warming less than the global average
(Less than average warming’), or disagreement amongst models on the
magnitude of regional relative warming (Inconsistent magnitude of warming’).
There is also a category for agreement on cooling (which never occurs). A consistent
result from at least seven of the nine models is deemed necessary for agreement.
The global annual average warming (DJF and JJA combined) of the models used span
1.2 to 4.5°C for A2 and 0.9 to 3.4°C for B2, and therefore a regional
40% amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to 6.3°C for A2 and 1.3
to 4.7°C for B2.