Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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Figure 11.11: Global average sea level rise 1990 to 2100 for the IS92a scenario, including the direct effect of sulphate aerosols. Thermal expansion and land ice changes were calculated from AOGCM experiments, and contributions from changes in permafrost, the effect of sediment deposition and the long-term adjustment of the ice sheets to past climate change were added. For the models that project the largest (CGCM1) and the smallest (MRI2) sea level change, the shaded region shows the bounds of uncertainty associated with land ice changes, permafrost changes and sediment deposition. Uncertainties are not shown for the other models, but can be found in Table 11.14. The outermost limits of the shaded regions indicate our range of uncertainty in projecting sea level change for the IS92a scenario.

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