Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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Figure 12.11: Best-estimate contributions to global mean temperature change. Reconstruction of temperature variations for 1906 to 1956 (a and b) and 1946 to 1995 (c and d) for G and S (a and c) and GS and SOL (b and d). (G denotes the estimated greenhouse gas signal, S the estimated sulphate aerosol signal, GS the greenhouse gas / aerosol signal obtained from simulations with combined forcing, SOL the solar signal). Observed (thick black), best fit (dark grey dashed), and the uncertainty range due to internal variability (grey shading) are shown in all plots. (a) and (c) show contributions from GS (orange) and SOL (blue). (b) and (d) show contributions from G (red) and S (green). All time-series were reconstructed with data in which the 50-year mean had first been removed. (Tett et al., 1999).

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