Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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Figure 12.4: (a) Observed microwave sounding unit (MSU) global mean temperature in the lower strato sphere, shown as dashed line, for channel 4 for the period 1979 to 97 compared with the average of several atmosphere-ocean GCM simulations starting with different atmospheric conditions in 1979 (solid line). The simulations have been forced with increasing greenhouse gases, direct and indirect forcing by sulphate aerosols and tropospheric ozone forcing, and Mt. Pinatubo volcanic aerosol and stratospheric ozone variations. The model simula-tion does not include volcanic forcing due to El Chichon in 1982, so it does not show stratospheric warming then. (b) As for (a), except for 2LT temperature retrievals in the lower troposphere. Note the steady response in the stratosphere, apart from the volcanic warm periods, and the large variability in the lower troposphere (from Bengtsson et al., 1999).

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