Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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Figure 12.9: (a) Observed surface air temperature trends for 1949 to 1997. (b) Simulated surface air temperature trends for the same period as estimated from a five-member greenhouse gas plus sulphate ensemble run with the GFDL R30 model. (c) Observed trends (in colour) that lie outside the 90% natural variability confidence bounds as estimated from the GFDL R30 control run. Grey areas show regions where the observed trends are consistent with the local 49-year temperature trends in the control run. (d) As for (c) but showing observed 1949 to 1997 trends (in colour) that are significantly different (as determined with a t-test at the 10% level) from those simulated by the greenhouse gas plus aerosol simulations performed with the GFDL R30 model (from Knutson et al., 2000). The larger grey areas in (d) than (c) indicate that the observed trends are consistent with the anthropogenic forced simulations over larger regions than the control simulations.

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