Working Group III: Mitigation

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3.5.6 Conclusions

It once again becomes clear that enhanced energy efficiency improvement remains the main option for emission reduction in the manufacturing industry. There are substantial differences in the level of energy efficiency between countries and also potentials differ. For most OECD countries and for a number of developing countries extended inventories of emission reduction options in industry exist. However, the focus is still very much on the heavy industrial sector. The total potential of energy efficiency improvement for the year 2010 can be estimated to be 300–500MtC for the year 2010. It seems possible to develop new technologies to sustain energy efficiency improvement in the longer term; if such innovations materialize the potential can be 700 - 900MtC for the year 2020. The larger part of these emission reductions can be attained at net negative costs.

A category of options to which only limited attention was paid in relation to greenhouse gas emission reduction is material efficiency improvement. It is clear that substantial technical potentials exist. These may be sufficient to attain emission reductions on the order of 600MtC in the year 2020 (UN, 1997). However, a significant effort is needed in selection, development, and implementation of such options. For the shorter term the potential will be substantially smaller (e.g., 200MtC), because of the complexity of introducing these options.

For virtually all sources of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in the manufacturing industry, options are available that can reduce emissions substantially, in some sectors to near zero. However, the total contribution to the emission reduction is limited: approximately 100MtCeq emission reduction is possible at a cost less than US$30/tCeq.

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