IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
Figure 10.1

Figure 10.1. Several steps from emissions to climate response contribute to the overall uncertainty of a climate model projection. These uncertainties can be quantified through a combined effort of observation, process understanding, a hierarchy of climate models, and ensemble simulations. In a comprehensive climate model, physical and chemical representations of processes permit a consistent quantification of uncertainty. Note that the uncertainty associated with the future emission path is of an entirely different nature and not addressed in Chapter 10. Bottom row adapted from Figure 10.26, A1B scenario, for illustration only.