IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
Figure 6.5

Figure 6.5. The Last Glacial Maximum climate (approximately 21 ka) relative to the pre-industrial (1750) climate. (Top left) Global annual mean radiative influences (W m–2) of LGM climate change agents, generally feedbacks in glacial-interglacial cycles, but also specified in most Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations for the LGM. The heights of the rectangular bars denote best estimate values guided by published values of the climate change agents and conversion to radiative perturbations using simplified expressions for the greenhouse gas concentrations and model calculations for the ice sheets, vegetation and mineral dust. References are included in the text. A judgment of each estimate’s reliability is given as a level of scientific understanding based on uncertainties in the climate change agents and physical understanding of their radiative effects. Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 (PMIP-2) simulations shown in bottom left and right panels do not include the radiative influences of LGM changes in mineral dust or vegetation. (Bottom left) Multi-model average SST change for LGM PMIP-2 simulations by five AOGCMs (Community Climate System Model (CCSM), Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS), Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate System Model (IPSL-CM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)). Ice extent over continents is shown in white. (Right) LGM regional cooling compared to LGM global cooling as simulated in PMIP-2, with AOGCM results shown as red circles and EMIC (ECBilt-CLIO) results shown as blue circles. Regional averages are defined as: Antarctica, annual for inland ice cores; tropical Indian Ocean, annual for 15°S to 15°N, 50°E to 100°E; and North Atlantic Ocean, July to September for 42°N to 57°N, 35°W to 20°E. Grey shading indicates the range of observed proxy estimates of regional cooling: Antarctica (Stenni et al., 2001; Masson-Delmotte et al., 2006), tropical Indian Ocean (Rosell-Mele et al., 2004; Barrows and Juggins, 2005), and North Atlantic Ocean (Rosell-Mele et al., 2004; Kucera et al., 2005; de Vernal et al., 2006; Kageyama et al., 2006).