IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

14.2.1 Freshwater resources

Streamflow in the eastern U.S. has increased 25% in the last 60 years (Groisman et al., 2004), but over the last century has decreased by about 2%/decade in the central Rocky Mountain region (Rood et al., 2005). Since 1950, stream discharge in both the Colorado and Columbia river basins has decreased, at the same time annual evapotranspiration (ET) from the conterminous U.S. increased by 55 mm (Walter et al., 2004). In regions with winter snow, warming has shifted the magnitude and timing of hydrologic events (Mote et al., 2005; Regonda et al., 2005; Stewart et al., 2005). The fraction of annual precipitation falling as rain (rather than snow) increased at 74% of the weather stations studied in the western mountains of the U.S. from 1949 to 2004 (Knowles et al., 2006). In Canada, warming from 1900 to 2003 led to a decrease in total precipitation as snowfall in the west and Prairies (Vincent and Mekis, 2006). Spring and summer snow cover has decreased in the U.S. west (Groisman et al., 2004). April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has declined 15 to 30% since 1950 in the western mountains of North America, particularly at lower elevations and primarily due to warming rather than changes in precipitation (Figure 14.1a) (see Mote et al., 2003; Mote et al., 2005; Lemke et al., 2007: Section Whitfield and Cannon (2000) and Zhang et al. (2001) reported earlier spring runoff across Canada. Summer (May to August) flows of the Athabasca River have declined 20% since 1958 (Schindler and Donahue, 2006). Streamflow peaks in the snowmelt-dominated western mountains of the U.S. occurred 1 to 4 weeks earlier in 2002 than in 1948 (Stewart et al., 2005). Break up of river and lake ice across North America has advanced by 0.2 to 12.9 days over the last 100 years (Magnuson et al., 2000).

Vulnerability to extended drought is increasing across North America as population growth and economic development create more demands from agricultural, municipal and industrial uses, resulting in frequent over-allocation of water resources (Alberta Environment, 2002; Morehouse et al., 2002; Postel and Richter, 2003; Pulwarty et al., 2005). Although drought has been more frequent and intense in the western part of the U.S. and Canada, the east is not immune from droughts and attendant reductions in water supply, changes in water quality and ecosystem function, and challenges in allocation (Dupigny-Giroux, 2001; Bonsal et al., 2004; Wheaton et al., 2005).