14.4.6 Human settlements
The economies of resource-dependent communities and indigenous communities in North America are particularly sensitive to climate change, with likely winners and losers controlled by impacts on important local resources (see Sections 14.4.1, 14.4.4 and 14.4.7). Residents of northern Canada and Alaska are likely to experience the most disruptive impacts of climate change, including shifts in the range or abundance of wild species crucial to the livelihoods and well-being of indigenous peoples (high confidence) (see Chapter 15 Sections 22.214.171.124 and 15.5) (Houser et al., 2001; NAST, 2001; Parson et al., 2001a; ACIA, 2005).
Infrastructure, climate trends and extreme events
Many of the impacts of climate change on infrastructure in North America depend on future changes in variability of precipitation and extreme events, which are likely to increase but with substantial uncertainty (Meehl et al., 2007: Section 10.5.1; Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3). Infrastructure in Alaska and northern Canada is known to be vulnerable to warming. Among the most sensitive areas are those affected by coastal erosion and thawing of ice-rich permafrost (see Chapter 15 Section 15.7.1) (NAST, 2001; Arctic Research Commission, 2003; ACIA, 2005). Building, designing, and maintaining foundations, pipelines and road and railway embankments will become more expensive due to permafrost thaw (ACIA, 2005). Examples where infrastructure is projected to be at ‘moderate to high hazard’ in the mid-21st century include Shishmaref, Nome and Barrow in Alaska, Tuktoyaktuk in the Northwest Territories, the Dalton Highway in Alaska, the Dempster Highway in the Yukon, airfields in the Hudson Bay region, and the Alaska Railroad (based on the ECHAM1-A, GFDL89 and UKTR climate models) (Nelson et al., 2002; Instanes et al., 2005).
Since the TAR, a few studies have projected increasing vulnerability of infrastructure to extreme weather related to climate warming unless adaptation is effective (high confidence). Examples include the New York Metropolitan Region (Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2001) (see Box 14.3), the mid-Atlantic Region (Fisher, 2000; Barron, 2001; Wu et al., 2002; Rygel et al., 2006) and the urban transportation network of the Boston metropolitan area (Suarez et al., 2005). For Boston, projections of a gradual increase (0.31%/yr) in the probability of the 100-year storm surge, as well as sea-level rise of 3 mm/yr, leads to urban riverine and coastal flooding (based on the CGCM1 climate model), but the projected economic damages do not justify the cost of adapting the transportation infrastructure to climate change.
Less reliable supplies of water are likely to create challenges for managing urban water systems as well as for industries that depend on large volumes of water (see Sections 14.2.1, 14.4.1). U.S. water managers anticipate local, regional or state-wide water shortages during the next ten years (GAO, 2003). Threats to reliable supply are complicated by the high population growth rates in western states where many water resources are at or approaching full utilisation (GAO, 2003) (see Section 14.4.1). Potential increases in heavy precipitation, with expanding impervious surfaces, could increase urban flood risks and create additional design challenges and costs for stormwater management (Kije Sipi Ltd., 2001).
Box 14.3. North American cities integrate impacts across multiple scales and sectors
Impacts of climate change in the metropolitan regions of North America will be similar in many respects. Los Angeles, New York and Vancouver are used to illustrate some of the affected sectors, including infrastructure, energy and water supply. Adaptation will need to be multi-decadal and multi-dimensional, and is already beginning (see Section 14.5).
Since most large North American cities are on tidewater, rivers or both, effects of climate change will likely include sea-level rise (SLR) and/or riverine flooding. The largest impacts are expected when SLR, heavy river flows, high tides and storms coincide (California Regional Assessment Group, 2002). In New York, flooding from the combination of SLR and storm surge could be several metres deep (Gornitz and Couch, 2001; Gornitz et al., 2001). By the 2090s under a strong warming scenario (the CGCM climate model with the CCGG emissions scenario), today’s 100-year flood level could have a return period of 3 to 4 years, and today’s 500-year flood could be a 1-in-50-year event, putting much of the region’s infrastructure at increased risk (Jacob et al., 2001; Major and Goldberg, 2001).
Energy supply and demand
Climate change will likely lead to substantial increases in electricity demand for summer cooling in most North American cities (see Section 14.4.8). This creates a number of conflicts, both locally and at a distance. In southern California, additional summer electricity demand will intensify inherent conflicts between state-wide hydropower and flood-control objectives (California Regional Assessment Group, 2002). Operating the Columbia River dams that supply 90% of Vancouver’s power would be complicated by lower flows and environmental requirements (see Box 14.2). In New York, supplying summer electricity demand could increase air pollutant levels (e.g., ozone) (Hill and Goldberg, 2001; Kinney et al., 2001; Knowlton et al., 2004) and health impacts could be further exacerbated by climate change interacting with urban heat island effects (Rosenzweig et al., 2005). Unreliable electric power, as in minority neighbourhoods during the New York heatwave of 1999, can amplify concerns about health and environmental justice (Wilgoren and Roane, 1999).
Water supply systems
North American city water supply systems often draw water from considerable distances, so climate impacts need not be local to affect cities. By the 2020s, 41% of the supply to southern California is likely to be vulnerable to warming from loss of Sierra Nevada and Colorado River basin snowpack (see Section 14.4.1). Similarly, less mountain snowpack and summer runoff could require that Vancouver undertakes additional conservation and water restrictions, expands reservoirs, and develops additional water sources (Schertzer et al., 2004). The New York area will likely experience greater water supply variability (Solecki and Rosenzweig, 2007). The New York system can likely accommodate this, but the region’s smaller systems may be vulnerable, leading to a need for enhanced regional water distribution protocols (Hansler and Major, 1999).
Many cities in North America have initiated ‘no regrets’ actions based on historical experience. In the Los Angeles area, incentive and information programmes of local water districts encourage water conservation (MWD, 2005). A population increase of over 35% (nearly one million people) since 1970 has increased water use in Los Angeles by only 7% (California Regional Assessment Group, 2002). New York has reduced total water consumption by 27% and per capita consumption by 34% since the early 1980s (City of New York, 2005). Vancouver’s ‘CitiesPLUS’ 100-year plan will upgrade the drainage system by connecting natural areas and waterways, developing locally resilient, smaller systems, and upgrading key sections of pipe during routine maintenance (Denault et al., 2002).