14.4.9 Interacting impacts
Impacts of climate change on North America will not occur in isolation, but in the context of technological, economic (Naki?enovi? and Swart, 2000; Edmonds, 2004), social (Lebel, 2004; Reid et al., 2005) and ecological changes (Sala et al., 2000). In addition, challenges from climate change will not appear as isolated effects on a single sector, region, or group. They will occur in concert, creating the possibility of a suite of local, as well as long-distance, interactions, involving both impacts of climate change and other societal and ecosystem trends (NAST, 2001; Reid et al., 2005). In some cases, these interactions may reduce impacts or decrease vulnerability, but in others they may amplify impacts or increase vulnerability.
Effects of climate change on ecosystems do not occur in isolation. They co-occur with numerous other factors, including effects of land-use change (Foley et al., 2005), air pollution (Karnosky et al., 2005), wildfires (see Box 14.1), changing biodiversity (Chapin et al., 2000) and competition with invasives (Mooney et al., 2005). The strong dependence of ecosystem function on moisture balance (Baldocchi and Valentini, 2004), coupled with the greater uncertainty about future precipitation than about future temperature (Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3), further expands the range of possible futures for North American ecosystems.
People also experience climate change in a context that is strongly conditioned by changes in other sectors and their adaptive capacity. Interactions with changes in material wealth (Ikeme, 2003), the vitality of local communities (Hutton, 2001; Wall et al., 2005), the integrity of key infrastructure (Jacob et al., 2001), the status of emergency facilities and preparedness and planning (Murphy et al. 2005), the sophistication of the public health system (Kinney et al., 2001), and exposure to conflict (Barnett, 2003), all have the potential to either exacerbate or ameliorate vulnerability to climate change. Among the unexpected consequences of the population displacement caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 is the strikingly poorer health of storm evacuees, many of whom lost jobs, health insurance, and stable relationships with medical professionals (Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, 2006).
Little of the literature reviewed in this chapter addresses interactions among sectors that are all impacted by climate change, especially in the context of other changes in economic activity, land use, human population, and changing personal and political priorities. Similarly, knowledge of the indirect impacts on North America of climate change in other geographical regions is very limited.