220.127.116.11 Methodological approaches to the assessment of mitigation strategies
A variety of methods is used in the literature to identify response strategies that may avoid potential key vulnerabilities or DAI (see also Fisher et al., 2007, Section 3.5.2). These methods can be characterised according to the following dimensions.
- Targeted versus non-targeted
In this section, targeted approaches refer to the determination of policy strategies that attempt to avoid exceeding pre-defined targets for key vulnerabilities or DAI thresholds, whereas non-targeted approaches determine the implications for key vulnerabilities or DAI of emissions or concentration pathways selected without initial consideration of such targets or thresholds. Targeted approaches are sometimes referred to as ‘inverse’ approaches, as they are working backwards from a specified outcome (e.g., an impact threshold not to be exceeded) towards the origin of the cause–effect chain that links GHG emissions with climate impacts.
- Deterministic versus set-based versus probabilistic
Deterministic analyses are based on best-guess estimates for uncertain parameters, whereas probabilistic analyses explicitly consider key uncertainties of the coupled socio-natural system by describing one or more parameters in terms of probability distributions. Uncertainty can also be treated discretely by set-based methods that select different possible values without specifying any probability distribution across the members of that set. For a more detailed discussion of the role of uncertainty in the assessment of response strategies, see Box 19.3.
- Optimising versus adaptive versus non-optimising
Optimising analyses determine recommended policy strategies based on a pre-defined objective, such as cost minimisation; whereas non-optimising analyses do not require the specification of such an objective function. Adaptive analyses optimise near-term decisions under the assumption that future decisions will consider new information as and when it materialises.
Box 19.3. Uncertainties in the assessment of response strategies
Climate change assessments and the development of response strategies face multiple uncertainties and unknowns (see Fourth Assessment Working Group II Chapter 2 and Working Group III Chapter 2). The most relevant sources of uncertainty in this context are:
(i) Natural randomness,
(ii) Lack of scientific knowledge,
(iii) Social choice (reflexive uncertainty),
(iv) Value diversity.
Some sources of uncertainty can be reasonably represented by probabilities, whereas others are more difficult to characterise probabilistically. The natural randomness in the climate system can be characterised by frequentist (or objective) probabilities, which describe the relative frequency (sometimes referred to as ‘likelihood’) of a repeatable event under known circumstances. There are, however, limitations to the frequentist description, given that the climate system is non-stationary at a range of scales and that past forcing factors cannot be perfectly known. The reliability of knowledge about uncertain aspects of the world (such as the ‘true’ value of climate sensitivity) cannot be empirically represented by frequentist probabilities alone. It is possible to construct probability distributions of climate sensitivity that look like frequency representations, but they will always have substantial elements of subjectivity embedded (Morgan and Keith, 1995; Allen et al., 2001). The inherent need for probabilistic analyses in a risk-management framework becomes problematic when some analysts object in principle to even assessing probabilities in situations of considerable lack of data or other key ingredients for probabilistic assessment. To help bridge this philosophical conflict, it has been suggested that making subjective elements transparent is an essential obligation of assessments using such an approach (e.g., Moss and Schneider, 2000). One method of characterising uncertainty due to a lack of scientific knowledge is by Bayesian (or subjective) probabilities, which refer to the degree of belief of experts in a particular statement, considering the available data. Another approach involves non-probabilistic representations such as imprecise probabilities (e.g., Hall et al., 2006). Whether probabilities can be applied to describe future social choice, in particular uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions, has also been the subject of considerable scientific debate (e.g., Allen et al., 2001; Grubler and Nakićenović, 2001; Lempert and Schlesinger, 2001; Pittock et al., 2001; Reilly et al., 2001; Schneider, 2001, 2002). Value diversity (such as different attitudes towards risk or equity) cannot be meaningfully addressed through an objective probabilistic description. It is often assessed through sensitivity analysis or scenario analysis, in which different value systems are explicitly represented and their associated impacts contrasted.
The probabilistic analyses of DAI reported in this section draw substantially on (subjective) Bayesian probabilities to describe key uncertainties in the climate system, such as climate sensitivity, the rate of oceanic heat uptake, current radiative forcing, and indirect aerosol forcing. See WGI Chapter 9 (Hegerl et al., 2007) and Chapter 10 (Meehl et al., 2007) for a more detailed discussion. While these uncertainties prevent the establishment of a high-confidence, one-to-one linkage between atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and global mean temperature increase, probabilistic analyses can assign a subjective probability of exceeding certain temperature thresholds for given emissions scenarios or concentration targets (e.g., Meinshausen, 2005; Harvey, 2007).
Table 19.2 characterises the main methods applied in the relevant literature based on two of the three dimensions defined above, because deterministic, set-based and probabilistic approaches can be applied to each of these methods. The remainder of Section 19.4 reviews literature pertaining to these methods that examines mitigation strategies to avoid key vulnerabilities or DAI.
Table 19.2. Methods to identify climate policies to avoid key vulnerabilities or DAI.
|Method ||Description ||Optimising approach? ||Targeted approach? |
|Scenario analysis, analysis of stabilisation targets ||Analyse the implications for temperature increase of specific concentration stabilisation levels, concentration pathways, emissions scenarios, or other policy scenarios. ||No ||No |
|Guardrail analysis ||Derive ranges of emissions that are compatible with predefined constraints on temperature increase, intolerable climate impacts, and/or unacceptable mitigation costs. ||No ||Yes |
|Cost–benefit analysis including key vulnerabilities and DAI ||Include representations of key vulnerabilities or DAI in a cost-optimising integrated assessment framework. ||Yes ||No |
|Cost-effectiveness analysis ||Identify cost-minimising emissions pathways that are consistent with pre-defined constraints for GHG concentrations, climate change or climate impacts. ||Yes ||Yes |