IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Figure 2.8

Figure 2.8. Projected ranges of global mean annual temperature change during the 21st century for CO2-stabilisation scenarios (upper panel, based on the TAR) and for the six illustrative SRES scenarios (middle and lower panels, based on the WG I Fourth Assessment). Different approaches have been used to obtain the estimates shown in the three panels, which are not therefore directly comparable. Upper panel. Projections for four CO2-stabilisation profiles using a simple climate model (SCM) tuned to seven AOGCMs (IPCC, 2001c, Figure SPM-6; IPCC, 2001a, Figure 9.17). Broken bars indicate the projected mean (tick mark) and range of warming across the AOGCM tunings by the 2020s (brown), 2050s (blue) and 2080s (orange) relative to 1990. Time periods are based on calculations for 2025, 2055 and 2085. Approximate CO2-equivalent values – including non-CO2 greenhouse gases – at the time of CO2-stabilisation (ppm) are also shown. Middle panel. Best estimates (red dots) and likely range (red bars) of warming by 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 for all six illustrative SRES scenarios and best estimates (coloured dots) for SRES B1, A1B and A2 by 2020-2029, 2050-2059 and 2080-2089 (IPCC, 2007, Figure SPM.5). Lower panel. Estimates based on an SCM tuned to 19 AOGCMs for 2025 (representing the 2020s), 2055 (2050s) and 2085 (2080s). Coloured dots represent the mean for the 19 model tunings and medium carbon cycle feedback settings. Coloured bars depict the range between estimates calculated assuming low carbon cycle feedbacks (mean - 1 SD) and those assuming high carbon cycle feedbacks (mean + 1 SD), approximating the range reported by Friedlingstein et al., 2006. Note that the ensemble average of the tuned versions of the SCM gives about 10% greater warming over the 21st century than the mean of the corresponding AOGCMs. (Meehl et al., 2007, Figure 10.26 and Appendix 10.A.1). To express temperature changes relative to 1850-1899, add 0.5°C.