2.2.5 Sequential decision-making
Uncertainty is a steadfast companion when analyzing the climate system, assessing future GHG emissions or the severity of climate change impacts, evaluating these impacts over many generations or estimating mitigation costs. The typology of uncertainties is explored fully in Section 2.3 below. Uncertainties of differing types exist in key socio-economic factors and scientific phenomena.
The climate issue is a long-term problem requiring long-term solutions. Policymakers need to find ways to explore appropriate long-term objectives and to make judgments about how compatible short-term abatement options are with long-term objectives. There is an increased focus on non-conventional (robust) decision rules (see Section 2.2.7 below), which preserve future options by avoiding unacceptable risks.
Climate change decision-making is not a once-and-for-all event. Rather it is a process that will take place over decades and in many different geographic, institutional and political settings. Furthermore, it does not occur at discrete intervals but is driven by the pace of the scientific and political process. Some uncertainties will decrease with time – for example in relation to the effectiveness of mitigation actions and the availability of low-emission technologies, as well as with respect to the science itself. The likelihood that better information might improve the quality of decisions (the value of information) can support increased investment in knowledge accumulation and its application, as well as a more refined ordering of decisions through time. Learning is an integral part of the decision-making process. This is also referred to as ‘act then learn, then act again’ (Manne and Richels, 1992; Valverde et al., 1999).
Uncertainties about climate policies at a decadal scale are a source of concern for many climate-relevant investments in the private sector (for example power generation), which have long expected economic lives.
It is important to recognize, however, that some level of uncertainty is unavoidable and that at times the acquisition of knowledge can increase, not decrease, uncertainty. Decisions will nevertheless have to be made.