IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change

Chapter 3: Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context


3.1 Emissions scenarios

3.1.1 The definition and purpose of scenarios

3.1.2 Introduction to mitigation and stabilization scenarios

3.1.3 Development trends and the lock-in effect of infrastructure choices

3.1.4 Economic growth and convergence

3.1.5 Development pathways and GHG emissions

3.1.6 Institutional frameworks

3.2 Baseline scenarios

3.2.1 Drivers of emissions

3.2.2 Emissions

3.3 Mitigation scenarios

3.3.1 Introduction

3.3.2 Definition of a stabilization target

3.3.3 How to define substitution among gases

3.3.4 Emission pathways

3.3.5 Long-term stabilization scenarios

3.3.6 Characteristics of regional and national mitigation scenarios

3.4 The role of technologies in long-term mitigation and stabilization: research, development, deployment, diffusion and transfer

3.4.1 Carbon-free energy and decarbonization

3.4.2 RD&D and investment patterns

3.4.3 Dynamics and drivers of technological change, barriers (timing of technology deployment, learning)

3.5 Interaction between mitigation and adaptation, in the light of climate change impacts and decision-making under long-term uncertainty

3.5.1 The interaction between mitigation and adaptation, an iterative climate policy process

3.5.2 Linking emission scenarios to changes in global mean temperature, impacts and key vulnerabilities

3.5.3 Information for integrated assessment of response strategies

3.6 Links between short-term emissions trends, envisaged policies and long-term climate policy targets

3.6.1 Insights into the choice of a short-term hedging strategy in the context of long-term uncertainty

3.6.2 Evaluation of short-term mitigation opportunities in long-term stabilization scenarios


Coordinating Lead Authors:

Brian Fisher (Australia), Nebojsa Nakicenovic (Austria/Montenegro)

Lead Authors:

Knut Alfsen (Norway), Jan Corfee Morlot (France/USA), Francisco de la Chesnaye (USA), Jean-Charles Hourcade (France), Kejun Jiang (China), Mikiko Kainuma (Japan), Emilio La Rovere (Brazil), Anna Matysek (Australia), Ashish Rana (India), Keywan Riahi (Austria), Richard Richels (USA), Steven Rose (USA), Detlef Van Vuuren (The Netherlands), Rachel Warren (UK)

Contributing Authors:

Phillipe Ambrosi (France), Fatih Birol (Turkey), Daniel Bouille (Argentina), Christa Clapp (USA), Bas Eickhout (The Netherlands), Tatsuya Hanaoka (Japan), Michael D. Mastrandrea (USA), Yuzuru Matsuoko (Japan), Brian O’Neill (USA), Hugh Pitcher (USA), Shilpa Rao (India), Ferenc Toth (Hungary)

Review Editors:

John Weyant (USA), Mustafa Babiker (Kuwait)

This chapter should be cited as:

Fisher, B.S., N. Nakicenovic, K. Alfsen, J. Corfee Morlot, F. de la Chesnaye, J.-Ch. Hourcade, K. Jiang, M. Kainuma, E. La Rovere, A. Matysek, A. Rana, K. Riahi, R. Richels, S. Rose, D. van Vuuren, R. Warren, 2007: Issues related to mitigation in the long term context, In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.