18.104.22.168 Dynamics of technology
R&D, technological learning, and spillovers are the three broad categories of drivers behind technological change. These are discussed in Chapter 2, Section 2.7, and Chapter 11, Section 11.5. The main conclusion is that, on the whole, all three of the sources of induced technological change (ITC) play important roles in technological advance. Here, we focus on the dynamics of technology and ITC in emissions and stabilization scenarios.
Emissions scenarios generally treat technological change as an exogenous assumption about costs, market penetration and other technology characteristics, with some notable exceptions such as in Gritsevskyi and Nakicenovic (2000). Hourcade and Shukla (2001), in their review of scenarios from top-down models, indicate that technology assumptions are a critical factor that affects the timing and cost of emission abatement in the models. They identify widely differing costs of stabilization at 550 ppmv by 2050, of between 0.2 and 1.75% of GDP, mainly influenced by the size of the emissions in the baseline.
The International Modelling Comparison Project (IMCP) (Edenhofer et al., 2006) compared the treatment relating to technological change in many models covering a wide range of approaches. The economies for technological change were simulated in three groups: effects through R&D expenditures, learning-by-doing (LBD) or specialization and scale. IMCP finds that ITC reduces costs of stabilization, but in a wide range, depending on the flexibility of the investment decisions and the range of mitigation options in the models. It should be noted, however, that induced technological change is not a ‘free lunch’, as it requires higher upfront investment and deployment of new technologies in order to achieve cost-reductions thereafter. This can lead to lower overall mitigation costs.
All models indicate that real carbon prices for stabilization targets rise with time in the early years, with some models showing a decline in the optimal price after 2050 due to the accumulated effects of LBD and positive spillovers on economic growth. Another robust result is that ITC can reduce costs when models include low carbon energy sources (such as renewables, nuclear, and carbon capture and sequestration), as well as energy efficiency and energy savings. Finally, policy uncertainty is seen as an issue. Long-term and credible abatement targets and policies will reduce some of the uncertainties around the investment decisions and are crucial to the transformation of the energy system.
ITC broadens the scope of technology-related policies and usually increases the benefits of early action, which accelerates deployment and cost-reductions of low-carbon technologies (Barker et al., 2006; Sijm, 2004; Gritsevskyi and Nakicenovic, 2000). This is due to the cumulative nature of ITC as treated in the new modelling approaches. Early deployment of costly technologies leads to learning benefits and lower costs as diffusion progresses. In contrast, scenarios with exogenous technology assumptions imply waiting for better technologies to arrive in the future, though this too may result in reduced costs of emission reduction (European Commission, 2003).
Other recent work also confirms these findings. For example, Manne and Richels (2004) and Goulder (2004) also found that ITC lowers mitigation costs and that more extensive reductions in GHGs are justified than with exogenous technical change. Nakicenovic and Riahi (2003) noted how the assumption about the availability of future technologies was a strong driver of stabilization costs. Edmonds et al. (2004a) studied stabilization at 550 ppmv CO2 in the SRES B2 world using the MiniCAM model and showed a reduction in costs of a factor of 2.5 in 2100 using a baseline incorporating technical change. Edmonds et al. consider advanced technology development to be far more important as a driver of emission reductions than carbon taxes. Weyant (2004) concluded that stabilization will require the large-scale development of new energy technologies, and that costs would be reduced if many technologies are developed in parallel and there is early adoption of policies to encourage technology development.
The results from the bottom-up and more technology-specific modelling approaches give a different perspective. Following the work of the IIASA in particular, models investigating induced technical change emerged during the mid- and late-1990s. These models show that ITC can alter results in many ways. In the previous sections of this chapter the authors have also illustrated that the baseline choice is crucial in determining the nature (and by implication also the cost) of stabilization. However, this influence is itself largely due to the different assumptions made about technological change in the baseline scenarios. Gritsevskyi and Nakicenovic (2000) identified some 53 clusters of least-cost technologies, allowing for endogenous technological learning with uncertainty. This suggests that a decarbonized economy may not cost any more than a carbon-intensive one, if technology learning curves are taken into account. Other key findings are that there is a large diversity across alternative energy technology strategies, a finding that was confirmed in IMCP (Edenhofer et al., 2006). These results suggest that it is not possible to choose an ‘optimal’ direction for energy system development. Some modelling reported in the TAR suggests that a reduction (up to 5 GtC a year) by 2020 (some 50% of baseline projections) might be achieved by current technologies, half of the reduction at no direct cost, the other half at direct costs of less than 100 US$/tC-equivalent (27 US$/tCO2-eq).