188.8.131.52 An iterative risk-management framework to articulate options
Previous IPCC reports conclude that climate change decision-making is not a once-and-for-all event, but an iterative risk-management process that is likely to take place over decades, where there will be opportunities for learning and mid-course corrections in the light of new information ( Lempert et al., 1994; Keller et al., 2006).
This iterative process can be described using a decision tree (Figure 3.37), where the square nodes represent decisions, the circles represent the reduction of uncertainty and the arrows indicate the range of decisions and outcomes. Some nodes summarize today’s options – how much should be invested in mitigation, in adaptation, in expanding mitigative and adaptive capacity, or in research to reduce uncertainty? Other nodes represent opportunities to learn and make mid-course corrections. This picture is a caricature of real decision processes, which are continuous, overlapping and iterative. However, it is useful to conceptually put the many determinants of any short-term strategy in a context of progressive resolution of uncertainty.
Figure 3.37: The Iterative Nature of the Climate Policy Process.