IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change Hydroelectricity

Large (>10 MW) hydroelectricity systems accounted for over 2800 TWh of consumer energy in 2004 (BP, 2006) and provided 16% of global electricity (90% of renewable electricity). Hydro projects under construction could increase the share of electricity by about 4.5% on completion (WEC, 2004d) and new projects could be deployed to provide a further 6000 TWh/yr or more of electricity economically (BP, 2004; IEA, 2006a), mainly in developing countries. Repowering existing plants with more powerful and efficient turbine designs can be cost effective whatever the plant scale. Where hydro expansion is occurring, particularly in China and India, major social disruptions, ecological impacts on existing river ecosystems and fisheries and related evaporative water losses are stimulating public opposition. These and environmental concerns may mean that obtaining resource permits is a constraint.

Small (<10 MW) and micro (<1 MW) hydropower systems, usually run-of-river schemes, have provided electricity to many rural communities in developing countries such as Nepal. Their present generation output is uncertain with predictions ranging from 4 TWh/yr (WEC, 2004d) to 9% of total hydropower output at 250 TWh/yr (Martinot et al., 2006). The global technical potential of small and micro hydro is around 150–200 GW with many unexploited resource sites available. About 75% of water reservoirs in the world were built for irrigation, flood control and urban water-supply schemes and many could have small hydropower generation retrofits added. Generating costs range from 20 to 90 US$/MWh but with additional costs needed for power connection and distribution. These costs can be prohibitive in remote areas, even for mini-grids, and some form of financial assistance from aid programmes or governments is often necessary.

The high level of flexibility of hydro plants enables peak loads in electricity demand to be followed. Some schemes, such as the 12.6 GW Itaipu plant in Brazil/Paraguay, are run as baseload generators with an average capacity factor of >80%, whereas others (as in the 24 GW of pumped storage plant in Japan) are used mainly as fast-response peaking plants, giving a factor closer to 40% capacity. Evaluations of hybrid hydro/wind systems, hydro/hydrogen systems and low-head run-of-river systems are under review (IEA, 2006d).

GHG emissions vary with reservoir location, power density (W capacity per m2 flooded), flow rate, and whether dam or run-or-river plant. Recently, the GHG footprint of hydropower reservoirs has been questioned (Fearnside, 2004; UNESCO, 2006). Some reservoirs have been shown to absorb CO2 at their surface, but most emit small amounts as water conveys carbon in the natural carbon cycle (Tremblay, 2005). High emissions of CH4 have been recorded at shallow, plateau-type tropical reservoirs where the natural carbon cycle is most productive (Delmas, 2005). Deep water reservoirs at similar low latitudes tend to exhibit lower emissions. Methane from natural floodplains and wetlands may be suppressed if they are inundated by a new reservoir since the methane is oxidized as it rises through the covering water column (Huttunen, 2005; dos Santos, 2005). Methane formation in freshwater produces by-product carbon compounds (phenolic and humic acids) that effectively sequester the carbon involved (Sikar, 2005). For shallow tropical reservoirs, further research is needed to establish the extent to which these may increase methane emissions.

Several Brazilian hydro-reservoirs were compared using life-cycle analyses with combined-cycle natural gas turbine (CCGT) plants of 50% efficiency (dos Santos et al., 2004). Emissions from flooded reservoirs tended to be less per kWh generated than those produced from the CCGT power plants. Large hydropower complexes with greater power density had the best environmental performance, whereas those with lower power density produced similar GHG emissions to the CCGT plants. For most hydro projects, life-cycle assessments have shown low overall net GHG emissions (WEC, 2004a; UNESCO, 2006). Since measuring the incremental anthropogenic-related emissions from freshwater reservoirs remains uncertain, the Executive Board of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has excluded large hydro projects with significant water storage from the CDM. The IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories (2006) recommended using estimates for induced changes in the carbon stocks.

Whether or not large hydro systems bring benefits to the poorest has also been questioned (Collier, 2006; though this argument is not exclusive to hydro). The multiple benefits of hydro-electricity, including irrigation and water-supply resource creation, rapid response to grid-demand fluctuations due to peaks or intermittent renewables, recreational lakes and flood control, need to be taken into account for any given development. Several sustainability guidelines and an assessment protocol have been produced by the industry (IHA, 2006; Hydro Tasmania, 2005; WCD, 2000).