18.104.22.168 Petroleum fuels
Conventional oil products extracted from crude oil-well bores and processed by primary, secondary or tertiary methods represent about 37% of total world energy consumption (Figure 4.4 and Table 4.2) with major resources concentrated in relatively few countries. Two thirds of proven crude oil reserves are located in the Middle East and North Africa (IEA, 2005a).
Known or proven reserves are those extractable at today’s prices and technologies. Additional probable and possible resources are based on historical experience in geological basins. While new discoveries have lagged behind production for more than 20 years, reserve additions from all sources including discoveries, extensions, revisions and improvements in oil recovery continue to outpace production (IEA, 2005b).
Various studies and models have been used to forecast future oil production (US EIA, 2004; Bentley, 2005). Geological models take into consideration the volume and quality of hydrocarbons but do not include economic effects on price, which in turn has a direct effect on supply and the overall rate of recovery. Mathematical models generally use the historical as well as the observed patterns of production to estimate a peak (or several peaks) reached when half the reserves are consumed.
Assessments of the amount of oil consumed, the amount remaining for extraction, and whether the peak oil tipping point is close or not, have been very controversial (Hirsch et al., 2005). Estimates of the ultimate extractable resource (proven + probable + possible reserves) with which the world was endowed have varied from less than 5730 EJ to 34,000 EJ (1000 to 6000 Gbbl), though the more recent predictions have all ranged between 11,500–17,000 EJ (2000–3000 Gbbl) (Figure 4.8). Over time, the prediction trend showed increasing resource estimates in the 1940s and 1950s as more fields were discovered. However, the very optimistic estimates of the 1970s were later discredited and a relatively constant estimate has since been observed.
Figure 4.8: Estimates of the global ultimate extractable conventional oil resource by year of publications.
Specific analyses include Bentley (2002b), who concluded that 4870 EJ had been consumed by 1998 and that 6300 EJ will have been extracted by 2008. The US Geological Survey (USGS, 2000) the World Petroleum Congress and the IFP agreed that approximately 4580 EJ (800 Gbbl) have been consumed in the past 150 years and 5730 EJ (1000 Gbbl) of proven reserves remain. Other detailed analyses (e.g. USGS, 2000) also estimated there are 4150 EJ of probable and possible resources still available for extraction. Thus, the total available potential proven reserves plus resources of around 10,000 EJ (BP, 2004; WEC, 2004b) should be sufficient for about 70 years’ supply at present rates of consumption. Since consumption rates will continue to rise, however, 30 to 40 years’ supply is a more reasonable estimate (Hallock et al., 2004). Burning this amount of petroleum resources would release approximately 700 GtCO2 (200 GtC) into the atmosphere, about two thirds the amount released to date from all fossil-fuel consumption. Opportunities for energy-efficiency improvements in oil refineries and associated chemical plants are covered in Chapter 7.