8.3.3 Regional trends
The Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa have the highest projected growth in emissions, with a combined 95% increase in the period 1990 to 2020 (US-EPA, 2006a). Sub-Saharan Africa is the one world region where per-capita food production is either in decline, or roughly constant at a level that is less than adequate (Scholes and Biggs, 2004). This trend is linked to low and declining soil fertility (Sanchez, 2002), and inadequate fertilizer inputs. Although slow, the rising wealth of urban populations is likely to increase demand for livestock products. This would result in intensification of agriculture and expansion to still largely unexploited areas, particularly in South and Central Africa (including Angola, Zambia, DRC, Mozambique and Tanzania), with a consequent increase in GHG emissions.
East Asia is projected to show large increases in GHG emissions from animal sources. According to FAO (FAOSTAT, 2006), total production of meat and milk in Asian developing countries increased more than 12 times and 4 times, respectively, from 2004 to 1961. Since the per-capita consumption of meat and milk is still much lower in these countries than in developed countries, increasing trends are expected to continue for a relatively long time. Accordingly, US-EPA (2006a) forecast increases of 153% and 86% in emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management, respectively, from 1990 to 2020. In South Asia, emissions are increasing mostly because of expanding use of N fertilizers and manure to meet demands for food, resulting from rapid population growth.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, agricultural products are the main source of exports. Significant changes in land use and management have occurred, with forest conversion to cropland and grassland being the most significant, resulting in increased GHG emissions from soils (CO2 and N2O). The cattle population has increased linearly from 176 to 379 Mhead between 1961 and 2004, partly offset by a decrease in the sheep population from 125 to 80 Mhead. All other livestock categories have increased in the order of 30 to 600% since 1961. Cropland areas, including rice and soybean, and the use of N fertilizers have also shown dramatic increases (FAOSTAT, 2006). Another major trend in the region is the increased adoption of no-till agriculture, particularly in the Mercosur area (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay). This technology is used on ~30 Mha every year in the region, although it is unknown how much of this area is under permanent no-till.
In the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, agricultural production is, at present, about 60-80% of that in 1990, but is expected to grow by 15-40% above 2001 levels by 2010, driven by the increasing wealth of these countries. A 10-14% increase in arable land area is forecast for the whole of Russia due to agricultural expansion. The widespread application of intensive management technologies could result in a 2 to 2.5-fold rise in grain and fodder yields, with a consequent reduction of arable land, but may increase N fertilizer use. Decreases in fertilizer N use since 1990 have led to a significant reduction in N2O emissions. But, under favourable economic conditions, the amount of N fertilizer applied will again increase, although unlikely to reach pre-1990 levels in the near future. US-EPA (2006a) projected a 32% increase in N2O emissions from soils in these two regions between 2005 and 2020, equivalent to an average rate of increase of 3.5 MtCO2-eq/yr.
OECD North America and OECD Pacific are the only developed regions showing a consistent increase in GHG emissions in the agricultural sector (18% and 21%, respectively between 1990 and 2020; Figure 8.2). In both cases, the trend is largely driven by non-CO2 emissions from manure management and N2O emissions from soils. In Oceania, nitrogen fertilizer use has increased exponentially over the past 45 years with a 5 and 2.5 fold increase since 1990 in New Zealand and Australia, respectively. In North America, in contrast, nitrogen fertilizer use has remained stable; the main driver for increasing emissions is management of manure from cattle, poultry and swine production, and manure application to soils. In both regions, conservation policies have resulted in reduced CO2 emissions from land conversion. Land clearing in Australia has declined by 60% since 1990 with vegetation management policies restricting further clearing, while in North America, some marginal croplands have been returned to woodland or grassland.
Western Europe is the only region where, according to US-EPA (2006a), GHG emissions from agriculture are projected to decrease to 2020 (Figure 8.2). This is associated with the adoption of a number of climate-specific and other environmental policies in the European Union, as well as economic constraints on agriculture, as discussed in Sections 8.7.1 and 8.7.2.
Figure 8.2: Estimated historical and projected N2O and CH4 emissions in the agricultural sector of the ten world regions during the period 1990-2020.
Source: Adapted from US-EPA, 2006a.