Article 2 of the Convention and mitigation
Article 2 of the UNFCCC requires that dangerous interference with the climate system be prevented and hence the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at levels and within a time frame that would achieve this objective. The criteria in Article 2 that specify (risks of) dangerous anthropogenic climate change include: food security, protection of ecosystems and sustainable economic development. Implementing Article 2 implies dealing with a number of complex issues:
What level of climate change is dangerous?
Decisions made in relation to Article 2 would determine the level of climate change that is set as the goal for policy, and have fundamental implications for emission-reduction pathways as well as the scale of adaptation required. Choosing a stabilization level implies balancing the risks of climate change (from gradual change and extreme events, and irreversible change of the climate, including those to food security, ecosystems and sustainable development) against the risks of response measures that may threaten economic sustainability. Although any judgment on ‘dangerous interference’ is necessarily a social and political one, depending on the level of risk deemed acceptable, large emission reductions are unavoidable if stabilization is to be achieved. The lower the stabilization level, the earlier these large reductions have to be realized (high agreement, much evidence) [1.2].
Projected anthropogenic climate change appears likely to adversely affect sustainable development, with the effects tending to increase with higher GHG concentrations (WGII AR4, Chapter 19). Properly designed climate change responses can be an integral part of sustainable development and the two can be mutually reinforcing. Mitigation of climate change can conserve or enhance natural capital (ecosystems, the environment as sources and sinks for economic activities) and prevent or avoid damage to human systems and, thereby contribute to the overall productivity of capital needed for socio-economic development, including mitigative and adaptive capacity. In turn, sustainable development paths can reduce vulnerability to climate change and reduce GHG emissions (medium agreement, much evidence) [1.2].
Climate change is subject to a very asymmetric distribution of present emissions and future impacts and vulnerabilities. Equity can be elaborated in terms of distributing the costs of mitigation or adaptation, distributing future emission rights and ensuring institutional and procedural fairness. Because the industrialized nations are the source of most past and current GHG emissions and have the technical and financial capability to act, the Convention places the heaviest burden for the first steps in mitigating climate change on them. This is enshrined in the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ (high agreement, much evidence) [1.2].
Due to the inertia of both climate and socio-economic systems, the benefits of mitigation actions initiated now may result in significant avoided climate change only after several decades. This means that mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have medium- and longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies (high agreement, much evidence) [1.2].
Mitigation and adaptation:
Adaptation and mitigation are two types of policy response to climate change, which can be complementary, substitutable or independent of each other. Irrespective of the scale of mitigation measures, adaptation measures will be required anyway, due to the inertia in the climate system. Over the next 20 years or so, even the most aggressive climate policy can do little to avoid warming already ‘loaded’ into the climate system. The benefits of avoided climate change will only accrue beyond that time. Over longer time frames, beyond the next few decades, mitigation investments have a greater potential to avoid climate change damage and this potential is larger than the adaptation options that can currently be envisaged (medium agreement, medium evidence) [1.2].
Risk and uncertainty:
An important aspect in the implementation of Article 2 is the uncertainty involved in assessing the risk and severity of climate change impacts and evaluating the level of mitigation action (and its costs) needed to reduce the risk. Given this uncertainty, decision-making on the implementation of Article 2 would benefit from the incorporation of risk-management principles. A precautionary and anticipatory risk-management approach would incorporate adaptation and preventive mitigation measures based on the costs and benefits of avoided climate change damage, taking into account the (small) chance of worst-case outcomes (medium agreement, medium evidence) [1.2].