Emission trends (global and regional)
Direct GHG emissions from industry are currently about 7.2 GtCO2-eq. As the mitigation options discussed in this chapter include measures aimed at reducing the industrial use of electricity, emissions including those from electricity use are important for comparison. Total industrial sector GHG emissions were about 12 GtCO2-eq in 2004, about 25% of the global total. CO2 emissions (including electricity use) from the industrial sector grew from 6.0 GtCO2 in 1971 to 9.9 GtCO2 in 2004. In 2004, developed nations accounted for 35% of total energy-related CO2 emissions, economies in transition for 11% and developing nations for 53% (see Figure TS.18). Industry also emits CO2 from non-energy uses of fossil fuels and from non-fossil fuel sources. In 2000, these were estimated to total 1.7 GtCO2 (high agreement, much evidence) [7.1.3].
Figure TS.18: Industrial sector energy-related CO2 emissions (GtCO2; including electricity use), 1971–2030. [Table 7.1, 7.2].
Note: Dark red – historic emissions; light red – projections according to SRES B2 scenario. Data extracted from Price et al. (2006).
EECCA = Countries of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Industrial processes also emit other GHGs, including HFC-23 from the manufacture of HCFC-22; PFCs from aluminium smelting and semiconductor processing; SF6 from use in flat panel screens (liquid crystal display) and semi-conductors, magnesium die casting, electrical equipment, aluminium melting, and others, and CH4 and N2O from chemical industry sources and food-industry waste streams. Total emission from these sources was about 0.4 GtCO2-eq in 2000 (medium agreement, medium evidence) [7.1.3].
The projections for industrial CO2 emissions for 2030 under the SRES-B22 scenarios are around 14 GtCO2 (including electricity use) (see Figure TS.18). The highest average growth rates in industrial-sector CO2 emissions are projected for developing countries. Growth in the regions of Central and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, and Developing Asia is projected to slow in both scenarios for 2000–2030. CO2 emissions are expected to decline in the Pacific OECD, North America and Western Europe regions for B2 after 2010. For non-CO2 GHG emissions from the industrial sector, emissions by 2030 are projected to increase globally by a factor of 1.4, from 470 MtCO2-eq. (130 MtC-eq) in 1990 to 670 MtCO2-eq (180 MtC-eq.) in 2030 assuming no further action is taken to control these emissions. Mitigation efforts led to a decrease in non-CO2 GHG emissions between 1990 and 2000, and many programmes for additional control are underway (see Table TS.9) (high agreement, medium evidence) [7.1.3].
Table TS.9: Projected industrial sector emissions of non-CO2 GHGs, MtCO2-eq/yr [Table 7.3].
|Region ||1990 ||2000 ||2010 ||2030 |
|Pacific OECD ||38 ||53 ||47 ||49 |
|North America ||147 ||117 ||96 ||147 |
|Western Europe ||159 ||96 ||92 ||109 |
|Central and Eastern Europe ||31 ||21 ||22 ||27 |
|EECCA ||37 ||20 ||21 ||26 |
|Developing Asia ||34 ||91 ||118 ||230 |
|Latin America ||17 ||18 ||21 ||38 |
|Sub Saharan Africa ||6 ||10 ||11 ||21 |
|Middle East and North Africa ||2 ||3 ||10 ||20 |
|World ||470 ||428 ||438 ||668 |
Description and assessment of mitigation technologies and practices, options and potentials, costs and sustainability
Historically, the industrial sector has achieved reductions in energy intensity and emission intensity through adoption of energy efficiency and specific mitigation technologies, particularly in energy-intensive industries. The aluminium industry reported >70% reduction in PFC-emission intensity over the period 1990–2004 and the ammonia industry reported that plants designed in 2004 have a 50% reduction in energy intensity compared with those designed in 1960. Continuing to modernize ammonia-production facilities around the world will result in further energy-efficiency improvements. Reductions in refining energy intensity have also been reported [7.4.2, 7.4.3, 7.4.4].
The low technical and economic capacity of SMEs pose challenges for the diffusion of sound environmental technology, though some innovative R&D is taking place in SMEs.
A wide range of measures and technologies have the potential to reduce industrial GHG emissions. These technologies can be grouped into the categories of energy efficiency, fuel switching, power recovery, renewables, feedstock change, product change and material efficiency (Table TS.10). Within each category, some technologies, such as the use of more efficient electric motors, are broadly applicable across all industries, while others, such as top-gas pressure recovery in blast furnaces, are process-specific.
Table TS.10: Examples of industrial technology for reducing GHG emissions (not comprehensive). Technologies in italics are under demonstration or development [Table 7.5].
|Sector ||Energy efficiency ||Fuel switching ||Power recovery ||Renewables ||Feedstock change ||Product change ||Material efficiency ||Non-CO2 GHG ||CO2 capture and storage |
Benchmarking; Energy management systems; Efficient motor systems, boilers, furnaces, lighting and heating/ventilation/air conditioning;
Coal to natural gas and oil
Biomass, Biogas, PV, Wind turbines, Hydropower
Oxy-fuel combustion, CO2 separation from flue gas
Iron & steel
Smelt reduction, Near net shape casting, Scrap preheating, Dry coke quenching
Natural gas, oil or plastic injection into the BF
Top-gas pressure recovery, By-product gas combined cycle
High strength steel
Recycling, High strength steel, Reduction process losses
oxygen use in blast furnaces
Efficient cell designs
Recycling, thinner film and coating
Membrane separations, Reactive distillation
Pre-coupled gas turbine, Pressure recovery turbine, H2 recovery
Recycled plastics, bio-feedstock
Linear low density polyethylene, high-perf. plastics
Recycling, Thinner film and coating, Reduced process losses
N2O, PFCs, CFCs and HFCs control
CO2 storage from ammonia, ethylene oxide processes
Pressure recovery turbine, hydrogen recovery
(reduction in transport not included here)
Control technology for N2O/CH4
From hydrogen production
Precalciner kiln, Roller mill, fluidized bed kiln
Waste fuels, Biogas, Biomass
Drying with gas turbine, power recovery
Biomass fuels, Biogas
Oxyfuel combustion in kiln
Air bottoming cycle
Increased cullet use
High-strength thin containers
Pulp and paper
Efficient pulping, Efficient drying, Shoe press, Condebelt drying
Biomass, Landfill gas
Black liquor gasification combined cycle
Biomass fuels (bark, black liquor)
Recycling, Non-wood fibres
Fibre orientation, Thinner paper
Reduction cutting and process losses
Oxyfuel combustion in lime kiln
Efficient drying, Membranes
Biogas, Natural gas
Anaerobic digestion, Gasification
Biomass, By-products, Solar drying
Reduction process losses, Closed water use
Later in the period to 2030, there will be a substantial additional potential from further energy- efficiency improvements and application of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and non-GHG process technologies. Examples of such new technologies that are currently in the R&D phase include inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture and hydrogen for metal production (high agreement, much evidence) [7.2, 7.3, 7.4].
Mitigation potentials and costs in 2030 have been estimated in an industry-by-industry assessment of energy-intensive industries and an overall assessment of other industries. The approach yielded mitigation potentials of about 1.1 GtCO2-eq at a cost of <20 US$/tCO2 (74 US$/tC-eq); about 3.5 GtCO2-eq at costs below <50 US$/tCO2 (180 US$/tC-eq); and about 4 GtCO2-eq/yr (0.60–1.4 GtC-eq/yr) at costs <US$100/tCO2-eq (<US$370/tC-eq) under the B2 scenario. The largest mitigation potentials are in the steel, cement and pulp and paper industries, and in the control of non-CO2 gases, and much of the potential is available at <50 US$/tCO2-eq (<US$ 180/tC-eq). Application of CCS technology offers a large additional potential, albeit at higher cost.
A recently completed global study for nine groups of technologies indicates a mitigation potential for the industrial sector of 2.5-3.0 GtCO2-eq/yr (0.68-0.82 GtC-eq/yr) in 2030 at costs of <25 US$/tCO2 (< 92US$/tC) (2004$). While the estimate of mitigation potential is in the range found in this assessment, the estimate of mitigation cost is significantly lower (medium agreement, medium evidence) [7.5].