Article 4 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
calls for the transfer of technologies, including those for adaptation, from
developed to developing countries (Climate Change Secretariat, 1992). Under
various sub-articles, it lays out ways by which such transfers could be supported
by the developed countries. Furthermore, at the Third session of the Conference
of the Parties to the UNFCCC in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997, three new mechanisms
of cooperative implementation were established (Climate Change Secretariat,
1998). The new mechanisms include transactions among Annex I Parties, international
emissions trading (IET), which provides for cooperation among the Annex B Parties,
and the clean development mechanism (CDM), which extends the scope of cooperation
to non-Annex I Parties.
Domestic actions, and those taken in cooperation with other countries, will
require an increased market penetration of environmentally sound technologies,
many of which are particularly important in their application to each sector.
What is the potential for the penetration of mitigation and adaptation technologies?
What barriers exist to the increased market penetration of such technologies?
Can these be overcome through the implementation of a mix of judicious policies,
programmes and other measures? What can we learn from past experience in promoting
these, or similar technologies? Is it better to intervene at the R&D stage
or during the end-use of fuels and technology? The chapters in this section
(Section II) address these questions using examples specific to each sector.
Technology transfer activities may be evaluated at three levels - macro or national,
sector-specific and project-specific. Many of the options explored in the Section
II chapters are at the latter two levels. We present criteria that authors have
used for the evaluation of what might constitute effective technology transfer
Greenhouse gas emissions from some sectors described in Section II are larger
than those from other sectors, and the importance of each greenhouse gas varies
across sectors and countries as well. Methane, for instance, is a much bigger
contributor to emissions from agricultural activity than, for instance, from
the industry sector. Table 6.1 shows the carbon emissions
from energy use in 1995. Emissions from electricity generation are allocated
to the respective consuming sector. Carbon emissions from the industrial sector
clearly constitute the largest share, while those derived from agricultural
energy use comprise the smallest share. In terms of growth rates of carbon emissions,
however, the fastest growing sectors are transport and buildings. With rapid
urbanisation promoting an increased use of fossil fuels for mobility and habitation,
these two sectors are likely to continue to grow faster than others in the future.
Carbon emissions from fossil fuels used to generate electricity amounted to
1,762 MtC of the total for all sectors in Table 6.1.
Chapters 7-9 examine technology
transfer opportunities in the energy demand sectors, and Chapter
10 focuses on energy supply options.
|Table 6.1 Carbon emissions from fossil
fuel combustion in Mt C (Price et al., 1998)
||CARBON EMISSIONS AND (%SHARE) 1995
||AVARAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)
Note: Emissions from energy use only; does not include feedstocks
or carbon dioxide from calcination in cement production. Biomass = no emissions.
* Includes emissions only from fuels used for electricity generation. Other
energy production and transformation activities discussed in
Chapter 10 are not included.
Carbon emissions from the forestry sector were estimated in
the IPCC Second Assessment Report at 0.9 +- 0.5 MtC for the 1980s (Watson
et al., 1996a). Tropical forests, as a whole, are estimated to be net emitters,
but temperate and boreal forests are net sequesters of carbon. Estimates of
emissions from the agricultural sector are not available. Carbon equivalent
emissions from waste disposal amounted to between 335-535 MtC. Chapters
11 and 12 focus on the technology transfer opportunities
in the agricultural and forestry sectors, and Chapter 13
focuses on the waste disposal sector.
Changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols are
projected to lead to regional and global changes in temperature, precipitation,
and other climate variables, such as soil moisture, an increase in global mean
sea level, and prospects for more severe extreme high-temperature events, floods,
and droughts in some places (Watson et al., 1998). Climate models based on alternative
IPCC emissions scenarios project that the mean annual global surface temperature
will increase by 1-3.5 degrees Celsius, and that the global mean sea level will
rise by 15-95 cm (IPCC, 1995).
Climate change represents an additional stress on systems already affected
by increased resource demands. In coastal areas, where a large part of the global
population lives, climate change can cause inundation of wetlands and lowlands,
erosion and degradation of shorelines and coral reefs, increased flooding and
salinisation of estuaries and freshwater aquifers. Health care systems may be
further stressed as diseases spread beyond their current domains, and vectors
migrate to other parts of the world and to different altitudes. Model projections
show that at the upper end of the range of projected temperature increase (3-5
degrees Celsius), the world's population exposed to malaria will increase from
45% to 60% by the latter half of the next century. Heat-stress mortality and
air pollution will create additional problems for health systems, particularly
those in urban areas. Technology transfer options for adapting to these consequences
are discussed in Chapters 14 and 15.
Technology transfer includes both within and between countries by actors who
are engaged in promoting the use of a particular technology along one or more
pathways. The market penetration of a technology may proceed from research,
development, and demonstration (RD&D), adoption, adaptation, replication
and development. At a project-specific level, the elements of the pathway are
different, and may proceed from project formulation, feasibility studies, loan
appraisals, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation and verification of carbon
benefits. The pathways may include many actors, starting with laboratories for
RD&D, manufacturers, financiers and project developers, and eventually the
customer whose welfare is presumably enhanced through their use. This presumption
needs to be carefully established through an assessment of the technology needs
of the consumer. A poor needs-assessment can result in barriers to technology
transfer that could have been avoided had the assessment fully captured the
social and other attributes of the technology. The actors may make specific
types of arrangements - joint ventures, public companies, licensing, etc. that
are mutually beneficial. These arrangements will define the particular pathway
chosen for technology transfer.
The transfer of a particular technology may proceed along one or more pathways,
as it evolves from R&D towards commercial application. The importance of
actors may change over time, as activities that were carried out earlier by
governments are turned over to private industry or to communities. On the other
hand, in times of crisis, the government role may become more prominent as national
or international interests become the primary drivers for taking action.
The spread of a technology may occur through transfer within a country and
then transfer to other countries, both may occur simultaneously, or transfer
between countries may precede that within a country. Generally, the spread of
a technology is more likely to proceed along the first option rather than the
other two, since the transfer of technologies to markets within a country is
likely to be less expensive given the proximity to the market, and lower barriers
to the penetration of that technology in the indigenous markets. Transfer of
technology from one country to another will generally face trade and other barriers,
both in the initiating and recipient country, which may dissuade manufacturers
and suppliers from implementing such transfer.
Many market barriers prevent the adoption of cost-effective mitigation options
in developing countries. In the energy sector these barriers include the high
initial cost of equipment, a lack of information on new technologies, the presence
of subsidies for electricity and fuels, and high tariffs on imported energy
technologies. In the forestry sector, barriers include pressures on land availability
for mitigation; absence of institutions to promote participation of local communities,
farmers and industry; risk of drought, fire, and pests; inadequate research
and development capacity in countries; and poorly developed reforestation and
sustainable forestry practices. Both sectors also suffer from an absence of
appropriate methods and institutions to monitor and verify carbon flows (Watson
et al., 1996b).
What conditions and policies are necessary to overcome these barriers and successfully
implement GHG mitigation options? The combination of barriers and actors in
each country creates a unique set of conditions, requiring "custom"
implementation strategies for mitigation options. Each chapter in this Section
discusses the barriers that are particularly important to a sector, such as
fuel and electricity price subsidies, weak institutional and legal frameworks,
lack of trained personnel, etc. Each chapter also provides examples and case
studies to highlight the barriers, and policies, programmes and measures that
were used, or could be developed, to overcome them.