Figure 10.34. (a) Atmospheric CO2, (b) global mean surface warming, (c) sea level rise from thermal expansion and (d) Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) calculated by eight EMICs for the SRES A1B scenario and stable radiative forcing after 2100, showing long-term commitment after stabilisation. Coloured lines are results from EMICs, grey lines indicate AOGCM results where available for comparison. Anomalies in (b) and (c) are given relative to the year 2000. Vertical bars indicate ±2 standard deviation uncertainties due to ocean parameter perturbations in the C-GOLDSTEIN model. The MOC shuts down in the BERN2.5CC model, leading to an additional contribution to sea level rise. Individual EMICs (see Table 8.3 for model details) treat the effect from non-CO2 greenhouse gases and the direct and indirect aerosol effects on radiative forcing differently. Despite similar atmospheric CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing among EMICs can thus differ within the uncertainty ranges currently available for present-day radiative forcing (see Chapter 2).