IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change

Global and regional emission trends

With the exception of the countries in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia (where emissions declined post-1990 but are now rising again) and Europe (currently stable), carbon emissions have continued to rise. Business-as-usual emissions to 2030 will increase significantly. Without effective policy actions, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are predicted to rise at a minimum of more than 40%, from around 25 GtCO2-eq/yr (6.6 GtC-eq) in 2000 to 37-53 GtCO2-eq/yr (10-14 GtC-eq) by 2030 [4.2.3].

In 2004, emissions from power generation and heat supply alone were 12.7 GtCO2-eq (26% of total emissions) including 2.2 GtCO2eq from CH4. In 2030, according to the World Energy Outlook 2006 baseline, these will have increased to 17.7 GtCO2-eq. (high agreement, much evidence) [4.2.2].