@misc{AMS2020,
address = {Boston, MA, USA},
author = {AMS},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society (AMS)},
title = {{Glossary of Meteorology}},
url = {http://glossary.ametsoc.org/},
year = {2021}
}
@techreport{ArcticCouncil2016,
abstract = {The Arctic Resilience Assessment (ARA) is an Arctic Council project led by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. It builds on collaboration with Arctic countries and Indigenous Peoples in the region, as well as several Arctic scientific organizations. The ARA (previously Arctic Resilience Report) was approved as an Arctic Council project at the Senior Arctic Officials meeting in November 2011. The ARA was initiated by the Swedish Ministry of the Environment as a priority for the Swedish Chairmanship of the Arctic Council (May 2011 to May 2013) and is being delivered under the US Chairmanship of the Arctic Council.},
address = {Stockholm, Sweden},
author = {{Arctic Council}},
editor = {Carson, M. and Peterson, G.},
pages = {218},
publisher = {Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre},
title = {{Arctic Resilience Report 2016}},
url = {https://oaarchive.arctic-council.org/handle/11374/1838},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Blunier2001,
abstract = {A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in Antarctica preceded the onset of Greenland warmings by 1500 to 3000 years. In general, Antarctic temperatures increased gradually while Greenland temperatures were decreasing or constant, and the termination of Antarctic warming was apparently coincident with the onset of rapid warming in Greenland. This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a “bipolar see-saw” in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales.},
author = {Blunier, Thomas and Brook, Edward J},
doi = {10.1126/science.291.5501.109},
journal = {Science},
month = {jan},
number = {5501},
pages = {109 LP  -- 112},
title = {{Timing of Millennial-Scale Climate Change in Antarctica and Greenland During the Last Glacial Period}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/291/5501/109.abstract},
volume = {291},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Bond1995,
abstract = {High-resolution studies of North Atlantic deep sea cores demonstrate that prominent increases in iceberg calving recurred at intervals of 2000 to 3000 years, much more frequently than the 7000-to 10,000-year pacing of massive ice discharges associated with Heinrich events. The calving cycles correlate with warm-cold oscillations, called Dansgaard-Oeschger events, in Greenland ice cores. Each cycle records synchronous discharges of ice from different sources, and the cycles are decoupled from sea-surface temperatures. These findings point to a mechanism operating within the atmosphere that caused rapid oscillations in air temperatures above Greenland and in calving from more than one ice sheet.},
author = {Bond, Gerard C and Lotti, Rusty},
doi = {10.1126/science.267.5200.1005},
journal = {Science},
month = {feb},
number = {5200},
pages = {1005 LP  -- 1010},
title = {{Iceberg Discharges into the North Atlantic on Millennial Time Scales During the Last Glaciation}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/267/5200/1005.abstract},
volume = {267},
year = {1995}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1029/97PA03707,
abstract = {Hughen et al. [1998] have documented that during the first 200 years of Younger Dryas time the 14C content of atmospheric CO2 increased by ∼50‰ and that during the remainder of this 1200-year-duration cold event it steadily declined. The initial increase in 14C/C was likely the result of a reduction in the Atlantic's conveyor circulation. However, were the subsequent radiocarbon decline due to the rejuvenation of this potent heat pump, then it is difficult to understand why the climate conditions in the northern Atlantic basin remained cold throughout the Younger Dryas. Modeling exercises by Stocker and Wright [1996], Mikolajewicz [1998], and Schiller et al. [1998] show that if the conveyor is terminated, the transfer of radiocarbon into the deep sea shifts to the Southern Ocean, thereby stabilizing the atmospheric 14C/C ratio. Paleoclimatic evidence from the Antarctic continent suggests that this model-based scenario might have been played out in the real world. While the Younger Dryas cooling has been documented in many places around the world, including New Zealand [Denton and Hendy, 1994], Sowers and Bender [1995], using their 18O in O2-based correlation between the ice core 18O in ice records for Antarctica and Greenland, have demonstrated that in Antarctica the Younger Dryas was a time of maximum warming. The point of this paper is that the steep rise in 18O rise in Antarctic ice which commenced close to the onset of the Younger Dryas might have been caused by heat released to the atmosphere in response to an increase in deep-sea ventilation in the Southern Ocean.},
author = {Broecker, Wallace S},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/97PA03707},
journal = {Paleoceanography},
number = {2},
pages = {119--121},
title = {{Paleocean circulation during the Last Deglaciation: A bipolar seesaw?}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/97PA03707},
volume = {13},
year = {1998}
}
@article{doi:10.1126/science.1172873,
author = {Clark, Peter U and Dyke, Arthur S and Shakun, Jeremy D and Carlson, Anders E and Clark, Jorie and Wohlfarth, Barbara and Mitrovica, Jerry X and Hostetler, Steven W and McCabe, A Marshall},
doi = {10.1126/science.1172873},
journal = {Science},
number = {5941},
pages = {710--714},
title = {{The Last Glacial Maximum}},
volume = {325},
year = {2009}
}
@techreport{Cogley2011,
address = {Paris, France},
author = {Cogley, J.G. and Hock, R. and Rasmussen, L.A. and Arendt, A.A. and Bauder, A. and Braithwaite, R.J. and Jansson, P. and Kaser, G. and M{\"{o}}ller, M. and Nicholson, L. and Zemp, M.},
pages = {114},
publisher = {IHP-VII Technical Documents in Hydrology No. 86, IACS Contribution No. 2, UNESCO-IHP},
title = {{Glossary of Glacier Mass Balance and Related Terms}},
url = {https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000192525},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Dansgaard1993,
abstract = {RECENT results1,2 from two ice cores drilled in central Greenland have revealed large, abrupt climate changes of at least regional extent during the late stages of the last glaciation, suggesting that climate in the North Atlantic region is able to reorganize itself rapidly, perhaps even within a few decades. Here we present a detailed stable-isotope record for the full length of the Greenland Ice-core Project Summit ice core, extending over the past 250 kyr according to a calculated timescale. We find that climate instability was not confined to the last glaciation, but appears also to have been marked during the last interglacial (as explored more fully in a companion paper3) and during the previous Saale–Holstein glacial cycle. This is in contrast with the extreme stability of the Holocene, suggesting that recent climate stability may be the exception rather than the rule. The last interglacial seems to have lasted longer than is implied by the deep-sea SPECMAP record4, in agreement with other land-based observations5,6. We suggest that climate instability in the early part of the last interglacial may have delayed the melting of the Saalean ice sheets in America and Eurasia, perhaps accounting for this discrepancy.},
author = {Dansgaard, W and Johnsen, S J and Clausen, H B and Dahl-Jensen, D and Gundestrup, N S and Hammer, C U and Hvidberg, C S and Steffensen, J P and Sveinbj{\"{o}}rnsdottir, A E and Jouzel, J and Bond, G},
doi = {10.1038/364218a0},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {6434},
pages = {218--220},
title = {{Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/364218a0},
volume = {364},
year = {1993}
}
@article{Duplessy1981,
abstract = {Isotopic, micropaleontologic and pollen analyses of deep-sea cores from the Bay of Biscay and the northeastern Atlantic Ocean show that the deglacial warming of this oceanic area was closely correlated with the paleoclimatic evolution of the adjacent European continent. Temperatures were at least as warm as those of today in the Bay of Biscay between 13 300 and 11 000 B.P. coinciding with the combined B{\o}lling/Aller{\o}d warm continental events. A major spread of polar water occurred between 11 000 and 10 000 B.P. During this event which coincides with the Younger Dryas continental cold event, marine temperatures were almost as low as those of the last glacial maximum. The final deglacial warming of the norteastern Atlatntic Ocean occurred during the following 3000 yr. {\textcopyright} 1981.},
author = {Duplessy, J. C. and Delibrias, G. and Turon, J. L. and Pujol, C. and Duprat, J.},
doi = {10.1016/0031-0182(81)90096-1},
issn = {00310182},
journal = {Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology},
month = {jan},
number = {C},
pages = {121--144},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Deglacial warming of the northeastern Atlantic ocean: correlation with the paleoclimatic evolution of the european continent}},
volume = {35},
year = {1981}
}
@article{Fairbanks1989,
abstract = {Coral reefs drilled offshore of Barbados provide the first continuous and detailed record of sea level change during the last deglaciation. The sea level was 121 ± 5 metres below present level during the last glacial maximum. The deglacial sea level rise was not monotonic; rather, it was marked by two intervals of rapid rise. Varying rates of melt-water discharge to the North Atlantic surface ocean dramatically affected North Atlantic deep-water production and oceanic oxygen isotope chemistry. A global oxygen isotope record for ocean water has been calculated from the Barbados sea level curve, allowing separation of the ice volume component common to all oxygen isotope records measured in deep-sea cores.},
author = {Fairbanks, Richard G},
doi = {10.1038/342637a0},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {6250},
pages = {637--642},
title = {{A 17,000-year glacio-eustatic sea level record: influence of glacial melting rates on the Younger Dryas event and deep-ocean circulation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/342637a0},
volume = {342},
year = {1989}
}
@unpublished{FAO2007,
address = {Rome, Italy},
author = {FAO},
pages = {124},
publisher = {Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO)},
series = {Land and Water Discussion Paper 6},
title = {{Land evaluation: Towards a revised framework}},
url = {https://www.fao.org/nr/lman/docs/lman{\_}070601{\_}en.pdf},
year = {2007}
}
@incollection{Gbeckor-Kove1989,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {Gbeckor-Kove, N.},
booktitle = {Drought and Desertification},
pages = {41--73},
publisher = {World Meteorological Organization (WMO)},
series = {WMO/TD-No.286},
title = {{Lectures on Drought and Desertification Delivered at the Training Session in Agrometeorology (Crop–Weather Modelling) – 14–24 November 1988, Munoz, Nueva Ecija, Philippines, by Mr. N. Gbeckor-Kove, WMO Secretariat}},
url = {https://library.wmo.int/doc{\_}num.php?explnum{\_}id=9500},
year = {1989}
}
@misc{Giardino2011,
address = {Dordrecht, The Netherlands},
author = {Giardino, John R and Regmi, Netra R and Vitek, John D},
booktitle = {Encyclopedia of Snow, Ice and Glaciers},
doi = {10.1007/978-90-481-2642-2_453},
editor = {Singh, Vijay P and Singh, Pratap and Haritashya, Umesh K},
isbn = {978-90-481-2642-2},
pages = {943--948},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Rock Glaciers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2642-2{\_}453},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Gowan2021,
abstract = {The evolution of past global ice sheets is highly uncertain. One example is the missing ice problem during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26 000-19 000 years before present) – an apparent 8-28 m discrepancy between far-field sea level indicators and modelled sea level from ice sheet reconstructions. In the absence of ice sheet reconstructions, researchers often use marine $\delta$18O proxy records to infer ice volume prior to the LGM. We present a global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years, called PaleoMIST 1.0, constructed independently of far-field sea level and $\delta$18O proxy records. Our reconstruction is compatible with LGM far-field sea-level records without requiring extra ice volume, thus solving the missing ice problem. However, for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (57 000-29 000 years before present) - a pre-LGM period - our reconstruction does not match proxy-based sea level reconstructions, indicating the relationship between marine $\delta$18O and sea level may be more complex than assumed.},
author = {Gowan, Evan J and Zhang, Xu and Khosravi, Sara and Rovere, Alessio and Stocchi, Paolo and Hughes, Anna L C and Gyllencreutz, Richard and Mangerud, Jan and Svendsen, John-Inge and Lohmann, Gerrit},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-21469-w},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {1199},
title = {{A new global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21469-w},
volume = {12},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Gregory2019,
abstract = {Changes in sea level lead to some of the most severe impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Consequently, they are a subject of great interest in both scientific research and public policy.This paper defines concepts and terminology associated with sea level and sea-level changes in order to facilitate progress in sea-level science, in which communication is sometimes hindered by inconsistent and unclear language.We identify key terms and clarify their physical and mathematical meanings, make links between concepts and across disciplines, draw distinctions where there is ambiguity, and propose new terminology where it is lacking or where existing terminology is confusing. We include formulae and diagrams to support the definitions.},
author = {Gregory, Jonathan M and Griffies, Stephen M and Hughes, Chris W and Lowe, Jason A and Church, John A and Fukimori, Ichiro and Gomez, Natalya and Kopp, Robert E and Landerer, Felix and Cozannet, Gon{\'{e}}ri Le and Ponte, Rui M and Stammer, Detlef and Tamisiea, Mark E and van de Wal, Roderik S W},
doi = {10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z},
issn = {1573-0956},
journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
month = {nov},
number = {6},
pages = {1251--1289},
title = {{Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z},
volume = {40},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{Harris1988,
address = {Ottawa, ON, Canada},
author = {Harris, S.A. and French, H.M. and Heginbottom, J.A. and Johnston, G.H. and Ladanyi, B. and Sego, D.C. and van Everdingen, R.O.},
doi = {10.4224/20386561},
isbn = {0-660-125404},
pages = {159},
publisher = {Permafrost Subcommittee, Associate Committee on Geotechnical Research, National Research Council of Canada},
series = {Technical Memorandum No. 142},
title = {{Glossary of Permafrost and Related Ground-Ice Terms}},
year = {1988}
}
@article{Hawkins2012,
author = {Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.},
doi = {10.1029/2011GL050087},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
title = {{Time of emergence of climate signals}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011GL050087},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Haywood2016,
abstract = {Abstract. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data–model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land–ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.},
author = {Haywood, Alan M. and Dowsett, Harry J. and Dolan, Aisling M. and Rowley, David and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Otto-Bliesner, Bette and Chandler, Mark A. and Hunter, Stephen J. and Lunt, Daniel J. and Pound, Matthew and Salzmann, Ulrich},
doi = {10.5194/cp-12-663-2016},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {663--675},
title = {{The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design}},
url = {https://www.clim-past.net/12/663/2016/},
volume = {12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hewitt2012,
abstract = {There is a growing and urgent need to improve society's resilience to climate-related hazards and better manage the risks and opportunities arising from climate variability and climate change.},
author = {Hewitt, Chris and Mason, Simon and Walland, David},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1745},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {831--832},
title = {{The Global Framework for Climate Services}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1745},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@techreport{IPA2005,
author = {IPA},
editor = {van Everdingen, Robert O.},
pages = {159},
publisher = {International Permafrost Association (IPA)},
title = {{Multi-language Glossary of Permafrost and Related Ground-Ice Terms}},
url = {https://globalcryospherewatch.org/reference/glossary{\_}docs/Glossary{\_}of{\_}Permafrost{\_}and{\_}Ground-Ice{\_}IPA{\_}2005.pdf},
year = {2005}
}
@techreport{IPA-RG2020,
address = {Longyearbyen, Svalbard},
author = {IPA-RG},
editor = {Delaloye, R. and Echelard, T.},
pages = {13},
publisher = {International Permafrost Association (IPA) Action Group Rock glacier inventories and kinematics},
title = {{Towards standard guidelines for inventorying rock glaciers: Baseline concepts (Version 4.0)}},
url = {https://bigweb.unifr.ch/Science/Geosciences/Geomorphology/Pub/Website/IPA/Guidelines/V4/200117{\_}Baseline{\_}Concepts{\_}Inventorying{\_}Rock{\_}Glaciers{\_}V4.pdf},
year = {2020}
}
@techreport{IPCC2019e,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {IPCC},
editor = {{Calvo Buendia}, E. and Tanabe, K. and Kranjc, A. and Baasansuren, J. and Fukuda, M. and Ngarize, S. and Osako, A. and Pyrozhenko, Y. and Shermanau, P. and Federici, S.},
isbn = {978-4-88788-232-4},
publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)},
title = {{2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories}},
url = {https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2019rf/index.html},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{Edenhofer2011,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {IPCC},
editor = {Manning, M. R. and Petit, M. and Easterling, D. and Murphy, J. and Patwardhan, A. and Rogner, H.-H. and Swart, R. and Yohe, G.},
isbn = {9789291691364},
pages = {138},
publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)},
title = {{IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/event/ipcc-workshop-on-describing-scientific-uncertainties-in-climate-change-to-support-analysis-of-risk-and-of-options},
year = {2004}
}
@techreport{IPCC2013a,
address = {Stanford, California, United States of America},
author = {IPCC},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V. and Stocker, T.F. and Qin, D. and Mach, K.J. and Plattner, G.-K. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Tignor, M. and Ebi, K.L.},
pages = {164},
publisher = {IPCC Working Group II Technical Support Unit, Carnegie Institution},
title = {{Workshop Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Workshop on Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biology and Ecosystems}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-workshop-on-ocean-acidification-on-marine-biology-and-ecosystems},
year = {2011}
}
@techreport{IPCC2006,
address = {Hayama, Japan},
author = {IPCC},
editor = {Eggleston, H.S. and Buendia, L. and Miwa, K. and Ngara, T. and Tanabe, K.},
isbn = {4-88788-032-4},
publisher = {Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)},
title = {{2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme}},
url = {https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html},
year = {2006}
}
@misc{ISO2014,
author = {ISO},
publisher = {International Standards Organisation (ISO)},
title = {{ISO 16559:2014(en). Solid biofuels – Terminology, definitions and descriptions}},
url = {www.iso.org/obp/ui/{\#}iso:std:iso:16559:ed-1:v1:en.},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Johnsen1992,
abstract = {The Greenland ice sheet offers the most favourable conditions in the Northern Hemisphere for obtaining high-resolution continuous time series of climate-related parameters. Profiles of 18O/{\textless}16O ratio along three previous deep Greenland ice cores1–3 seemed to reveal irregular but well-defined episodes of relatively mild climate conditions (interstadials) during the mid and late parts of the last glaciation, but there has been some doubt as to whether the shifts in oxygen isotope ratio were genuine representations of changes in climate, rather than artefacts due to disturbed stratification. Here we present results from a new deep ice core drilled at the summit of the Greenland ice sheet, where the depositional environ-ment and the flow pattern of the ice are close to ideal for core recovery and analysis. The results reproduce the previous findings to such a degree that the existence of the interstadial episodes can no longer be in doubt. According to a preliminary timescale based on stratigraphic studies, the interstadials lasted from 500 to 2,000 years, and their irregular occurrence suggests complexity in the behaviour of the North Atlantic ocean circulation.},
author = {Johnsen, S J and Clausen, H B and Dansgaard, W and Fuhrer, K and Gundestrup, N and Hammer, C U and Iversen, P and Jouzel, J and Stauffer, B and Steffensen, J P},
doi = {10.1038/359311a0},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {6393},
pages = {311--313},
title = {{Irregular glacial interstadials recorded in a new Greenland ice core}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/359311a0},
volume = {359},
year = {1992}
}
@article{Kageyama2017,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Abstract. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Kageyama, Masa and Albani, Samuel and Braconnot, Pascale and Harrison, Sandy P. and Hopcroft, Peter O. and Ivanovic, Ruza F. and Lambert, Fabrice and Marti, Olivier and Peltier, W. Richard and Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves and Roche, Didier M. and Tarasov, Lev and Zhang, Xu and Brady, Esther C. and Haywood, Alan M. and LeGrande, Allegra N. and Lunt, Daniel J. and Mahowald, Natalie M. and Mikolajewicz, Uwe and Nisancioglu, Kerim H. and Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. and Renssen, Hans and Tomas, Robert A. and Zhang, Qiong and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Bartlein, Patrick J. and Cao, Jian and Li, Qiang and Lohmann, Gerrit and Ohgaito, Rumi and Shi, Xiaoxu and Volodin, Evgeny and Yoshida, Kohei and Zhang, Xiao and Zheng, Weipeng},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {4035--4055},
title = {{The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/4035/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kitoh2013,
abstract = {We provide a new view of global and regional monsoonal rainfall, and their changes in the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios as projected by 29 climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The model results show that the global monsoon area defined by the annual range in precipitation is projected to expand mainly over the central to eastern tropical Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean, and eastern Asia. The global monsoon precipitation intensity and the global monsoon total precipitation are also projected to increase. Indices of heavy precipitation are projected to increase much more than those for mean precipitation. Over the Asian monsoon domain, projected changes in extreme precipitation indices are larger than over other monsoon domains, indicating the strong sensitivity of Asian monsoon to global warming. Over the American and African monsoon regions, projected future changes in mean precipitation are rather modest, but those in precipitation extremes are large. Models project that monsoon retreat dates will delay, while onset dates will either advance or show no change, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season. However, models' limited ability to reproduce the present monsoon climate and the large scatter among the model projections limit the confidence in the results. The projected increase of the global monsoon precipitation can be attributed to an increase of moisture convergence due to increased surface evaporation and water vapor in the air column although offset to a certain extent by the weakening of the monsoon circulation. {\textcopyright}2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Kitoh, Akio and Endo, Hirokazu and {Krishna Kumar}, K. and Cavalcanti, Iracema F.A. and Goswami, Prashant and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50258},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
keywords = {CMIP5,Global Monsoon},
number = {8},
pages = {3053--3065},
title = {{Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global context}},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Lambeck2014,
abstract = {Several areas of earth science require knowledge of the fluctuations in sea level and ice volume through glacial cycles. These include understanding past ice sheets and providing boundary conditions for paleoclimate models, calibrating marine-sediment isotopic records, and providing the background signal for evaluating anthropogenic contributions to sea level. From {\~{}}1,000 observations of sea level, allowing for isostatic and tectonic contributions, we have quantified the rise and fall in global ocean and ice volumes for the past 35,000 years. Of particular note is that during the {\~{}}6,000 y up to the start of the recent rise {\~{}}100-150 y ago, there is no evidence for global oscillations in sea level on time scales exceeding {\~{}}200 y duration or 15-20 cm amplitude.The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet{\{}$\backslash$textquoteright{\}}s dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of {\~{}}1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of {\~{}}40 m in {\textless}2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum {\~{}}30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to -134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of {\~{}}52 {\{}$\backslash$texttimes{\}} 106 km3 greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from {\~{}}16.5 ka BP to {\~{}}8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m.ka-1 punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5{\{}$\backslash$textendash{\}}14.0 ka BP at {\textgreater}=40 mm.y-1 (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at {\~{}}11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to {\~{}}2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100{\{}$\backslash$textendash{\}}150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding {\~{}}15{\{}$\backslash$textendash{\}}20 cm in time intervals {\textgreater}=200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.},
author = {Lambeck, Kurt and Rouby, H{\'{e}}l{\`{e}}ne and Purcell, Anthony and Sun, Yiying and Sambridge, Malcolm},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1411762111},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {43},
pages = {15296--15303},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene}},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@techreport{Finegold2005,
address = {Santa Monica, CA, USA},
author = {Lempert, R.J. and Popper, S.W. and Bankes, S.C.},
isbn = {0-8330-3275-5},
pages = {186},
publisher = {RAND Corporation},
title = {{Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis}},
year = {2003}
}
@incollection{MEA2005,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
annote = {International-Union-of-Soil-Sciences Global Soil Carbon Conference, Madison, WI, JUN 03-06, 2013},
author = {MA},
booktitle = {Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Current States and Trends. Findings of the Condition and Trends Working Group},
editor = {Hassan, R. and Scholes, R. and Ash, N.},
isbn = {9781559632270},
pages = {893--900},
publisher = {Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). Island Press},
title = {{Appendix D: Glossary}},
url = {https://islandpress.org/books/ecosystems-and-human-well-being-current-state-and-trends},
year = {2005}
}
@techreport{IPCC2005,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {Mastrandrea, M.D. and Field, C.B. and Stocker, T.F. and Edenhofer, O. and Ebi, K.L. and Frame, D.J. and Held, H. and Kriegler, E. and Mach, K.J. and Matschoss, P.R. and Plattner, G.-K. and Yohe, G.W. and Zwiers, F.W.},
pages = {6},
publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)},
title = {{Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-cross-working-group-meeting-on-consistent-treatment-of-uncertainties},
year = {2010}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1029/PA001i001p00043,
abstract = {At least two modes of glacial-interglacial climate change have existed within the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the last 20,000 years. The first mode (defined by cold glacial and warm interglacial conditions) occurred symmetrically north and south of the equator and dominated the eastern boundary currents and tropical upwelling areas. This pattern suggests that mode 1 is driven by a glacial modification of surface winds in both hemispheres. The second mode of oceanic climate change, defined by temperature extremes centered on the deglaciation, was hemispherically asymmetrical, with the northern tropical Atlantic relatively cold and the southern tropical Atlantic relatively warm during deglaciation. A likely cause for this pattern of variation is a reduction of the presently northward cross-equatorial heat flux during deglaciation. No single mechanism accounts for all the data. Potential contributors to oceanic climate changes are linkage to high-latitude climates, modification of monsoonal winds by ice sheet and/or insolation changes, atmospheric CO2 and greenhouse effects, indirect effects of glacial meltwater, and variations in thermohaline overturn of the oceans.},
author = {Mix, Alan C and Ruddiman, William F and McIntyre, Andrew},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/PA001i001p00043},
journal = {Paleoceanography},
number = {1},
pages = {43--66},
title = {{Late Quaternary paleoceanography of the Tropical Atlantic, 1: Spatial variability of annual mean sea-surface temperatures, 0–20,000 years B.P.}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/PA001i001p00043},
volume = {1},
year = {1986}
}
@article{MIX2001627,
abstract = {Knowledge of the state of the earth at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, an interval around 21,000 years ago) is an important benchmark for understanding the sensitivity of global environmental systems to change. Much progress in understanding climates of the LGM has occurred in the ∼20 years since the end of the CLIMAP project of the 1970s (Climate Long-range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction). Here we review this progress, based on presentations and discussion at a first open science meeting of the EPILOG project (Environmental Processes of the Ice age: Land, Oceans, Glaciers) held in Delmenhorst, Germany, May 1999. We outline key controversies and document protocols for EPILOG contributions, so that a new synthesis of the LGM Earth can emerge as an open project of the world's community of scientists.},
author = {Mix, Alan C and Bard, Edouard and Schneider, Ralph},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(00)00145-1},
issn = {0277-3791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
number = {4},
pages = {627--657},
title = {{Environmental processes of the ice age: land, oceans, glaciers (EPILOG)}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379100001451},
volume = {20},
year = {2001}
}
@incollection{IPCC2005,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {Moss, R.H. and Schneider, S.H.},
booktitle = {Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC},
editor = {Pachauri, R. and Taniguchi, T. and Tanaka, K.},
pages = {33--51},
publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)},
title = {{Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: Recommendations to Lead Authors for More Consistent Assessment and Reporting}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/guidance-papers-3rd-assessment.pdf},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Moss2010b,
annote = {10.1038/nature08823},
author = {Moss, Richard H and Edmonds, Jae A and Hibbard, Kathy A and Manning, Martin R and Rose, Steven K and van Vuuren, Detlef P and Carter, Timothy R and Emori, Seita and Kainuma, Mikiko and Kram, Tom and Meehl, Gerald A and Mitchell, John F B and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Riahi, Keywan and Smith, Steven J and Stouffer, Ronald J and Thomson, Allison M and Weyant, John P and Wilbanks, Thomas J},
doi = {10.1038/nature08823},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {feb},
number = {7282},
pages = {747--756},
publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved},
title = {{The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7282/suppinfo/nature08823{\_}S1.html},
volume = {463},
year = {2010}
}
@misc{NOAA2018,
author = {NOAA},
publisher = {National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). National Ocean Service website},
title = {{What is an iceberg?}},
url = {https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/iceberg.html},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Pongratz18,
author = {Pongratz, J. and Dolman, H. and Don, A. and Erb, K-H. and Fuchs, R. and Herold, M. and Jones, C. and Kuemmerle, T. and Luyssaert, S. and Meyfroidt, P. and Naudts, K.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13988},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
number = {4},
pages = {1470--1487},
title = {{Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models}},
volume = {24},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ralph2018,
author = {Ralph, F Martin and Dettinger, Michael D and Cairns, Mary M and Galarneau, Thomas J and Eylander, John},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {837--839},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Defining “Atmospheric River”: How the Glossary of Meteorology Helped Resolve a Debate}},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Schwartz1995,
author = {Schwartz, S.E. and Warneck, P.},
journal = {Pure and Applied Chemistry},
number = {8/9},
pages = {1377--1406},
title = {{Units for use in atmospheric chemistry (IUPAC Recommendations 1995)}},
url = {http://publications.iupac.org/pac/1995/pdf/6708x1377.pdf},
volume = {67},
year = {1995}
}
@article{Shepherd2018,
annote = {Cited By :1

Export Date: 28 January 2019},
author = {Shepherd, T G and Boyd, E and Calel, R A and Chapman, S C and Dessai, S and Dima-West, I M and Fowler, H J and James, R and Maraun, D and Martius, O and Senior, C A and Sobel, A H and Stainforth, D A and Tett, S F B and Trenberth, K E and van den Hurk, B.J.J.M. and Watkins, N W and Wilby, R L and Zenghelis, D A},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3-4},
pages = {555--571},
title = {{Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change}},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85056359200{\&}doi=10.1007{\%}2Fs10584-018-2317-9{\&}partnerID=40{\&}md5=0b6a8e3ac2a8ac1734e92df49ca67249},
volume = {151},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Steffen2016,
abstract = {applicability for this approach.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Steffen, Will and Leinfelder, Reinhold and Zalasiewicz, Jan and Waters, Colin N. and Williams, Mark and Summerhayes, Colin and Barnosky, Anthony D. and Cearreta, Alejandro and Crutzen, Paul and Edgeworth, Matt and Ellis, Erle C. and Fairchild, Ian J. and Galuszka, Agnieszka and Grinevald, Jacques and Haywood, Alan and {Ivar do Sul}, Juliana and Jeandel, Catherine and McNeill, J. R. and Odada, Eric and Oreskes, Naomi and Revkin, Andrew and Richter, Daniel de B. and Syvitski, James and Vidas, Davor and Wagreich, Michael and Wing, Scott L. and Wolfe, Alexander P. and Schellnhuber, H. J.},
doi = {10.1002/2016EF000379},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {9788578110796},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {Anthropocene,Earth System science,Stratigraphy},
number = {8},
pages = {324--345},
pmid = {25246403},
title = {{Stratigraphic and Earth System approaches to defining the Anthropocene}},
volume = {4},
year = {2016}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1029/2003PA000920,
abstract = {The simplest possible model is proposed to explain a large fraction of the millennial climate variability measured in the isotopic composition of Antarctic ice cores. The model results from the classic bipolar seesaw by coupling it to a heat reservoir. In this “thermal bipolar seesaw” the heat reservoir convolves northern time signals with a characteristic timescale. Applying the model to the data of GRIP and Byrd, we demonstrate that maximum correlation can be obtained using a timescale of about 1000–1500 years. Higher correlations are obtained by first filtering out the long-term variability which is due to astronomical and greenhouse gas forcing and not part of the thermal bipolar seesaw. The model resolves the apparent confusion whether northern and southern climate records are in or out of phase, synchronous, or time lagged.},
author = {Stocker, Thomas F and Johnsen, Sigf{\`{u}}s J},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2003PA000920},
journal = {Paleoceanography},
keywords = {Dansgaard-Oeschger events,bipolar seesaw,north-south connection,synchronization of Antarctic and Greenland ice co},
number = {4},
pages = {1087},
title = {{A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2003PA000920},
volume = {18},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Turkes1991,
author = {T{\"{u}}rkeş, M},
journal = {Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences},
pages = {363--380},
title = {{Vulnerability of Turkey to Desertification With Respect to Precipitation and Aridity Conditions}},
volume = {23},
year = {1999}
}
@incollection{UN1992,
author = {UN},
booktitle = {Convention on Biological Diversity},
pages = {3--4},
publisher = {United Nations (UN)},
title = {{Article 2: Use of Terms}},
url = {https://www.cbd.int/doc/legal/cbd-en.pdf},
year = {1992}
}
@misc{UN-OHRLLS2018,
author = {UN-OHRLLS},
publisher = {Office for the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS)},
title = {{Small Island Developing States: Country profiles}},
url = {http://unohrlls.org/about-sids/country-profiles/},
urldate = {2018-05-31},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{UN-OHRLLS2011,
address = {New York, NY, USA},
author = {UN-OHRLLS},
pages = {32},
publisher = {Office for the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS)},
title = {{Small Island Developing States: Small Islands Big(ger) Stakes}},
year = {2011}
}
@misc{UN-Water2013,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {UN-Water},
publisher = {UN-Water},
title = {{What is Water Security? Infographic}},
url = {https://www.unwater.org/publications/water-security-infographic/},
year = {2013}
}
@techreport{UNCCD1994,
author = {UNCCD},
pages = {58},
title = {{United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in countries experiencing serious drought and/or desertification, particularly in Africa}},
url = {https://treaties.un.org/doc/Treaties/1996/12/19961226 01-46 PM/Ch{\_}XXVII{\_}10p.pdf},
year = {1994}
}
@techreport{UNESCO/IASH/WMO1970,
address = {Paris, France},
author = {UNESCO/IASH/WMO},
pages = {38},
publisher = {United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)},
title = {{Seasonal snow cover: A guide for measurement, compilation and assemblage of data}},
year = {1970}
}
@techreport{UNFCCC1992a,
author = {UNFCCC},
pages = {24},
publisher = {United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)},
series = {FCCC/INFORMAL/84},
title = {{United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change}},
url = {https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf},
year = {1992}
}
@misc{UNF2021,
author = {UNFCCC},
publisher = {United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)},
title = {{Reporting and accounting of LULUCF activities under the Kyoto Protocol}},
url = {https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use-land-use-change-and-forestry-lulucf/reporting-and-accounting-of-lulucf-activities-under-the-kyoto-protocol},
year = {2021}
}
@misc{UNF2021,
author = {UNFCCC},
publisher = {United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)},
title = {{Reporting and Review under the Paris Agreement}},
url = {https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/transparency-and-reporting/reporting-and-review-under-the-paris-agreement},
year = {2021}
}
@techreport{UNGA2016,
author = {UNGA},
pages = {41},
publisher = {United Nations General Assembly (UNGA)},
series = {A/71/644},
title = {{Report of the open-ended intergovernmental expert working group on indicators and terminology relating to disaster risk reduction}},
url = {https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/852089},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Walker2019,
abstract = {The Holocene Series/Epoch is the most recent series/epoch in the geological timescale, spanning the interval from 11,700 yr to the present day. Together with the subadjacent Pleistocene, it comprises the Quaternary System/Period. The Holocene record contains diverse geomorphological, biological, climatological and archaeological evidence, within sequences that are often continuous and extremely well-preserved at decadal, annual and even seasonal resolution. As a consequence, the Holocene is perhaps the most intensively-studied series/epoch within the entire Geological Time Scale. Yet until recently little attention had been paid to a formal subdivision of the Holocene. Here we describe an initiative by the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy (SQS) of the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) to develop a formal stratigraphical subdivision of the Holocene, with three new stages/ages, two underpinned by Global Boundary Stratotype Sections and Points (GSSPs in an ice core, and a third in a speleothem. These stages/ages are defined together with their equivalent subseries/subepochs. The new stages/ages are the Greenlandian with its GSSP in the Greenland NGRIP2 ice core and dated at 11,700 yr b2k (before 2000 CE); the Northgrippian with its GSSP in the Greenland NGRIP1 ice core and dated to 8236 yr b2k; and the Meghalayan, with its GSSP in a speleothem from Mawmluh Cave, northeastern India, with a date of 4250 yr b2k. This subdivision was formally ratified by the Executive Committee of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) on 14th June 2018.},
author = {Walker, Mike and Gibbard, Phil and Head, Martin J and Berkelhammer, Max and Bj{\"{o}}rck, Svante and Cheng, Hai and Cwynar, Les C and Fisher, David and Gkinis, Vasilios and Long, Antony and Lowe, John and Newnham, Rewi and Rasmussen, Sune Olander and Weiss, Harvey},
doi = {10.1007/s12594-019-1141-9},
issn = {0974-6889},
journal = {Journal of the Geological Society of India},
number = {2},
pages = {135--141},
title = {{Formal Subdivision of the Holocene Series/Epoch: A Summary}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12594-019-1141-9},
volume = {93},
year = {2019}
}
@book{Wiener2009,
address = {Cambridge, MA, USA},
author = {Wiener, J.B. and Graham, J.D.},
editor = {Wiener, J.B. and Graham, J.D.},
pages = {352},
publisher = {Harvard University Press},
title = {{Risk vs Risk: Tradeoffs in Protecting Health and the Environment}},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Yokoyama2018,
abstract = {The approximately 10,000-year-long Last Glacial Maximum, before the termination of the last ice age, was the coldest period in Earth's recent climate history1. Relative to the Holocene epoch, atmospheric carbon dioxide was about 100 parts per million lower and tropical sea surface temperatures were about 3 to 5 degrees Celsius lower2,3. The Last Glacial Maximum began when global mean sea level (GMSL) abruptly dropped by about 40 metres around 31,000 years ago4 and was followed by about 10,000 years of rapid deglaciation into the Holocene1. The masses of the melting polar ice sheets and the change in ocean volume, and hence in GMSL, are primary constraints for climate models constructed to describe the transition between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene, and future changes; but the rate, timing and magnitude of this transition remain uncertain. Here we show that sea level at the shelf edge of the Great Barrier Reef dropped by around 20 metres between 21,900 and 20,500 years ago, to −118 metres relative to the modern level. Our findings are based on recovered and radiometrically dated fossil corals and coralline algae assemblages, and represent relative sea level at the Great Barrier Reef, rather than GMSL. Subsequently, relative sea level rose at a rate of about 3.5 millimetres per year for around 4,000 years. The rise is consistent with the warming previously observed at 19,000 years ago1,5, but we now show that it occurred just after the 20-metre drop in relative sea level and the related increase in global ice volumes. The detailed structure of our record is robust because the Great Barrier Reef is remote from former ice sheets and tectonic activity. Relative sea level can be influenced by Earth's response to regional changes in ice and water loadings and may differ greatly from GMSL. Consequently, we used glacio-isostatic models to derive GMSL, and find that the Last Glacial Maximum culminated 20,500 years ago in a GMSL low of about −125 to −130 metres.},
author = {Yokoyama, Yusuke and Esat, Tezer M and Thompson, William G and Thomas, Alexander L and Webster, Jody M and Miyairi, Yosuke and Sawada, Chikako and Aze, Takahiro and Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki and Okuno, Jun'ichi and Fallon, Stewart and Braga, Juan-Carlos and Humblet, Marc and Iryu, Yasufumi and Potts, Donald C and Fujita, Kazuhiko and Suzuki, Atsushi and Kan, Hironobu},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0335-4},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7715},
pages = {603--607},
title = {{Rapid glaciation and a two-step sea level plunge into the Last Glacial Maximum}},
volume = {559},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zscheischler2018,
abstract = {Floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts often result from a combination of interacting physical processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The combination of processes (climate drivers and hazards) leading to a significant impact is referred to as a ‘compound event'. Traditional risk assessment methods typically only consider one driver and/or hazard at a time, potentially leading to underestimation of risk, as the processes that cause extreme events often interact and are spatially and/or temporally dependent. Here we show how a better understanding of compound events may improve projections of potential high-impact events, and can provide a bridge between climate scientists, engineers, social scientists, impact modellers and decision-makers, who need to work closely together to understand these complex events.},
author = {Zscheischler, Jakob and Westra, Seth and van den Hurk, Bart J J M and Seneviratne, Sonia I and Ward, Philip J and Pitman, Andy and AghaKouchak, Amir and Bresch, David N and Leonard, Michael and Wahl, Thomas and Zhang, Xuebin},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3},
issn = {1758-6798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {6},
pages = {469--477},
title = {{Future climate risk from compound events}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}