@book{LeeT;SpeichS.LorenzoniL;ChibaS;Muller-KargerF.E;DaiM;Kabo-BahA.T.;SiddornJ;ManleyJ;SnoussiM;Chai2019,
doi = {10.3389/978-2-88963-118-6},
editor = {Lee, T. and Speich, S. and Lorenzoni, L and Chiba, S and Muller-Karger, F. E and Dai, M and Kabo-Bah, A. T. and Siddorn, J and Manley, J and Snoussi, M and Chai, F},
pages = {783},
publisher = {Frontiers Media},
title = {{OceanObs'19: An Ocean of Opportunity. Volume 1}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/8224/oceanobs19-an-ocean-of-opportunity},
year = {2019}
}
@book{Bruckner2000,
address = {Dordrecht, The Netherlands},
doi = {10.1007/978-94-015-9612-1},
editor = {Stehr, Nico and von Storch, Hans},
isbn = {978-0-7923-6128-2},
pages = {338},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Eduard Br{\"{u}}ckner – The Sources and Consequences of Climate Change and Climate Variability in Historical Times}},
year = {2000}
}
@book{Williams1978,
abstract = {Carbon Dioxide, Climate and Society contains the proceedings of a workshop organized by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis on February 21-24, 1978. The papers explore the potential consequences of carbon dioxide for climate and society and considers {\ldots}},
address = {Oxford, UK},
annote = {Times cited: 117},
doi = {http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/821/1/XB-78-502.pdf},
editor = {Williams, Jill},
pages = {332},
publisher = {Pergamon Press},
title = {{Carbon Dioxide, Climate and Society: Proceedings of a IIASA Workshop cosponsored by WMO, UNEP, and SCOPE, February 21-24, 1978}},
url = {http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/821/1/XB-78-502.pdf},
year = {1978}
}
@book{Heymann2017,
address = {Abingdon, Oxon, UK and New York, NY, USA},
editor = {Heymann, M and Gramelsberger, G and Mahony, M},
isbn = {9781315406282},
pages = {272},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science: Epistemic and Cultural Shifts in Computer-based Modelling and Simulation}},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Angstrom1900,
author = {{\AA}ngstr{\"{o}}m, Knut},
doi = {10.1002/andp.19003081208},
journal = {Annalen der Physik},
number = {12},
pages = {720--732},
title = {{{\"{U}}ber die Bedeutung des Wasserdampfes und der Kohlens{\"{a}}ure bei der Absorption der Erdatmosph{\"{a}}re}},
volume = {308},
year = {1900}
}
@article{Angstrom1964,
author = {{\AA}ngstr{\"{o}}m, Anders},
doi = {10.3402/tellusa.v16i1.8885},
issn = {0040-2826},
journal = {Tellus},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {64--75},
title = {{The parameters of atmospheric turbidity}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/tellusa.v16i1.8885},
volume = {16},
year = {1964}
}
@article{Angstrom1929,
author = {{\AA}ngstr{\"{o}}m, Anders},
doi = {10.1080/20014422.1929.11880498},
issn = {2001-4422},
journal = {Geografiska Annaler},
month = {aug},
number = {2},
pages = {156--166},
title = {{On the Atmospheric Transmission of Sun Radiation and on Dust in the Air}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20014422.1929.11880498},
volume = {11},
year = {1929}
}
@article{Abraham2013a,
abstract = {The evolution of ocean temperature measurement systems is presented with a focus on the development and accuracy of two critical devices in use today (expendable bathythermographs and conductivity-temperature-depth instruments used on Argo floats). A detailed discussion of the accuracy of these devices and a projection of the future of ocean temperature measurements are provided. The accuracy of ocean temperature measurements is discussed in detail in the context of ocean heat content, Earth's energy imbalance, and thermosteric sea level rise. Up-to-date estimates are provided for these three important quantities. The total energy imbalance at the top of atmosphere is best assessed by taking an inventory of changes in energy storage. The main storage is in the ocean, the latest values of which are presented. Furthermore, despite differences in measurement methods and analysis techniques, multiple studies show that there has been a multidecadal increase in the heat content of both the upper and deep ocean regions, which reflects the impact of anthropogenic warming. With respect to sea level rise, mutually reinforcing information from tide gauges and radar altimetry shows that presently, sea level is rising at approximately 3 mm yr-1 with contributions from both thermal expansion and mass accumulation from ice melt. The latest data for thermal expansion sea level rise are included here and analyzed. Key Points Oceanographic techniques and analysis have improved over many decadesThese improvements allow more accurate Earth-energy balance estimatesUnderstanding of ocean heat content and sea-level rise has also increased {\textcopyright}2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Abraham, J. P. and Baringer, M. and Bindoff, N. L. and Boyer, T. and Cheng, L. J. and Church, J. A. and Conroy, J. L. and Domingues, C. M. and Fasullo, J. T. and Gilson, J. and Goni, G. and Good, S. A. and Gorman, J. M. and Gouretski, V. and Ishii, M. and Johnson, G. C. and Kizu, S. and Lyman, J. M. and Macdonald, A. M. and Minkowycz, W. J. and Moffitt, S. E. and Palmer, M. D. and Piola, A. R. and Reseghetti, F. and Schuckmann, K. and Trenberth, K. E. and Velicogna, I. and Willis, J. K.},
doi = {10.1002/rog.20022},
issn = {87551209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {Argo float,Earth energy balance,expendable bathythermograph,global warming,ocean heat content,thermosteric sea level rise},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {450--483},
title = {{A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/rog.20022},
volume = {51},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Abram2016,
author = {Abram, Nerilie J. and McGregor, Helen V. and Tierney, Jessica E. and Evans, Michael N. and McKay, Nicholas P. and Kaufman, Darrell S. and {PAGES 2k Consortium}},
doi = {10.1038/nature19082},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {aug},
number = {7617},
pages = {411--418},
title = {{Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature19082},
volume = {536},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Abram2019,
author = {Abram, Nerilie and Gattuso, Jean-Pierre and Prakash, Anjal and Cheng, Lijing and Chidichimo, Mar{\'{i}}a Paz and Crate, Susan and Enomoto, Hiroyuki and Garschagen, Matthias and Gruber, Nicolas and Harper, Sherilee},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-1-framing-and-context-of-the-report},
editor = {P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegr{\'{i}}a, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {73--129},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Framing and Context of the Report}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-1-framing-and-context-of-the-report},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Abramowitz2019,
author = {Abramowitz, G and Herger, N and Gutmann, E and Hammerling, D and Knutti, R and Leduc, M and Lorenz, R and Pincus, R and Schmidt, G A},
doi = {10.5194/esd-10-91-2019},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {91--105},
title = {{ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/91/2019/},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Adler2014,
author = {Adler, Carolina E. and {Hirsch Hadorn}, Gertrude},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.297},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {5},
pages = {663--676},
title = {{The IPCC and treatment of uncertainties: topics and sources of dissensus}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.297},
volume = {5},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Aguilera-Betti2017,
author = {Aguilera-Betti, Isabella and Mu{\~{n}}oz, Ariel A and Stahle, Daniel and Figueroa, Gino and Duarte, Fernando and Gonz{\'{a}}lez-Reyes, {\'{A}}lvaro and Christie, Duncan and Lara, Antonio and Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Mauro E and Sheppard, Paul R and Sauchyn, David and Moreira-Mu{\~{n}}oz, Andr{\'{e}}s and Toledo-Guerrero, Isadora and Olea, Mat{\'{i}}as and Apaz, Pablo and Fernandez, Alfonso},
doi = {10.3959/1536-1098-73.1.53},
journal = {Tree-Ring Research},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {53--56},
title = {{The First Millennium-Age Araucaria Araucana in Patagonia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3959/1536-1098-73.1.53},
volume = {73},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ahn2017,
author = {Ahn, Min-Seop and Kim, Daehyun and Sperber, Kenneth R. and Kang, In-Sik and Maloney, Eric and Waliser, Duane and Hendon, Harry},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3558-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {11-12},
pages = {4023--4045},
title = {{MJO simulation in CMIP5 climate models: MJO skill metrics and process-oriented diagnosis}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3558-4},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@book{GreatBritainMeteorologicalOffice1920,
address = {London, UK},
author = {{Air Ministry – Meteorological Office}},
pages = {iii--vii},
publisher = {H.M. Stationery Office},
title = {{R{\'{e}}seau Mondial, 1914: Monthly and Annual Summaries of Pressure, Temperature, and Precipitation At Land Stations}},
year = {1921}
}
@article{Aitken1889,
abstract = {The solid matter floating in our atmosphere is every day becoming of greater and greater interest as we are gradually realising the important part it plays in the economy of nature, whether viewed as to its physical, physiological, or meteorological aspects. One fundamental point on which we have at present very little information of anything like a definite character, is as to the number of solid particles present in our atmosphere. We know that they are very numerous, and it seems probable that the number varies under different conditions of weather; but what number of particles are really present under any conditions, and how the number varies, we have at present very little idea. In this field of research the physiologists are far in advance of the physicists, as they have devised means of counting the number of live germs floating in our atmosphere, and already we have a good deal of information as to how the number varies under different conditions.},
author = {Aitken, John},
doi = {10.1017/S0080456800017592},
issn = {0080-4568},
journal = {Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--19},
title = {{I. – On the Number of Dust Particles in the Atmosphere}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0080456800017592/type/journal{\_}article},
volume = {35},
year = {1889}
}
@article{ALBRECHT1989,
author = {Albrecht, B. A.},
doi = {10.1126/science.245.4923.1227},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {sep},
number = {4923},
pages = {1227--1230},
title = {{Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.245.4923.1227},
volume = {245},
year = {1989}
}
@article{Alexander2011,
author = {Alexander, Clarence and Bynum, Nora and Johnson, Elizabeth and King, Ursula and Mustonen, Tero and Neofotis, Peter and Oettl{\'{e}}, Noel and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Sakakibara, Chie and Shadrin, Vyacheslav and Vicarelli, Marta and Waterhouse, Jon and Weeks, Brian},
doi = {10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.10},
issn = {1525-3244},
journal = {BioScience},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {477--484},
title = {{Linking Indigenous and Scientific Knowledge of Climate Change}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-lookup/doi/10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.10},
volume = {61},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Alexander2020,
author = {Alexander, Lisa V and Bador, Margot and Roca, R{\'{e}}my and Contractor, Steefan and Donat, Markus G and Nguyen, Phuong Loan},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab79e2},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {055002},
title = {{Intercomparison of annual precipitation indices and extremes over global land areas from {\textless}i{\textgreater}in situ{\textless}/i{\textgreater} , space-based and reanalysis products}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab79e2},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Alkhayuon2019a,
abstract = {The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show multi-stability across a range of models of different complexity. The simplest models find a bifurcation associated with the AMOC ‘on' state losing stability that is a saddle node. Here, we study a physically derived global oceanic model of Wood et al. with five boxes, that is calibrated to runs of the FAMOUS coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. We find the loss of stability of the ‘on' state is due to a subcritical Hopf for parameters from both pre-industrial and doubled CO 2 atmospheres. This loss of stability via subcritical Hopf bifurcation has important consequences for the behaviour of the basin of attraction close to bifurcation. We consider various time-dependent profiles of freshwater forcing to the system, and find that rate-induced thresholds for tipping can appear, even for perturbations that do not cross the bifurcation. Understanding how such state transitions occur is important in determining allowable safe climate change mitigation pathways to avoid collapse of the AMOC.},
author = {Alkhayuon, Hassan and Ashwin, Peter and Jackson, Laura C. and Quinn, Courtney and Wood, Richard A.},
doi = {10.1098/rspa.2019.0051},
issn = {1364-5021},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {2225},
pages = {20190051},
title = {{Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2019.0051},
volume = {475},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Allan2020,
abstract = {Abstract Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7{\%}/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ?2?3{\%}/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337},
author = {Allan, Richard P and Barlow, Mathew and Byrne, Michael P and Cherchi, Annalisa and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Fowler, Hayley J and Gan, Thian Y and Pendergrass, Angeline G and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Swann, Abigail L S and Wilcox, Laura J and Zolina, Olga},
doi = {10.1111/nyas.14337},
issn = {0077-8923},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {climate change,land surface,precipitation,radiative forcing,water cycle},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {49--75},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337},
volume = {1472},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Allan2011,
abstract = {No abstract available.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/2011BAMS3218.1},
author = {Allan, Rob and Brohan, Philip and Compo, Gilbert P and Stone, Roger and Luterbacher, Juerg and Br{\"{o}}nnimann, Stefan},
doi = {10.1175/2011BAMS3218.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {1421--1425},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The International Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) Initiative}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3218.1},
volume = {92},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Allen2002,
author = {Allen, Myles R. and Ingram, William J.},
doi = {10.1038/nature01092},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {sep},
number = {6903},
pages = {228--232},
title = {{Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature01092},
volume = {419},
year = {2002}
}
@article{Allen2016,
abstract = {Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of 'cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus' short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP 100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP 100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to "well below 2 °C" (ref.). The GWP 100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2 -equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.},
author = {Allen, Myles R. and Fuglestvedt, Jan S. and Shine, Keith P. and Reisinger, Andy and Pierrehumbert, Raymond T. and Forster, Piers M.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2998},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {773--776},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants}},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Allen2009,
author = {Allen, Myles R. and Frame, David J. and Huntingford, Chris and Jones, Chris D. and Lowe, Jason A. and Meinshausen, Malte and Meinshausen, Nicolai},
doi = {10.1038/nature08019},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {apr},
number = {7242},
pages = {1163--1166},
title = {{Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08019 http://www.nature.com/articles/nature08019},
volume = {458},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Anagnostou2020b,
abstract = {Despite recent advances, the link between the evolution of atmospheric CO2 and climate during the Eocene greenhouse remains uncertain. In particular, modelling studies suggest that in order to achieve the global warmth that characterised the early Eocene, warmer climates must be more sensitive to CO2 forcing than colder climates. Here, we test this assertion in the geological record by combining a new high-resolution boron isotope-based CO2 record with novel estimates of Global Mean Temperature. We find that Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) was indeed higher during the warmest intervals of the Eocene, agreeing well with recent model simulations, and declined through the Eocene as global climate cooled. These observations indicate that the canonical IPCC range of ECS (1.5 to 4.5 °C per doubling) is unlikely to be appropriate for high-CO2 warm climates of the past, and the state dependency of ECS may play an increasingly important role in determining the state of future climate as the Earth continues to warm.},
author = {Anagnostou, E and John, E H and Babila, T L and Sexton, P F and Ridgwell, A and Lunt, D J and Pearson, P N and Chalk, T B and Pancost, R D and Foster, G L},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-17887-x},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {4436},
title = {{Proxy evidence for state-dependence of climate sensitivity in the Eocene greenhouse}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17887-x},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Anav2013,
author = {Anav, A. and Friedlingstein, P. and Kidston, M. and Bopp, L. and Ciais, P. and Cox, P. and Jones, C. and Jung, M. and Myneni, R. and Zhu, Z.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00417.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {6801--6843},
title = {{Evaluating the Land and Ocean Components of the Global Carbon Cycle in the CMIP5 Earth System Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00417.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{ANCHUKAITIS20171,
abstract = {Climate field reconstructions from networks of tree-ring proxy data can be used to characterize regional-scale climate changes, reveal spatial anomaly patterns associated with atmospheric circulation changes, radiative forcing, and large-scale modes of ocean-atmosphere variability, and provide spatiotemporal targets for climate model comparison and evaluation. Here we use a multiproxy network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct spatially resolved warm season (May–August) mean temperatures across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (40-90°N) using Point-by-Point Regression (PPR). The resulting annual maps of temperature anomalies (750–1988 CE) reveal a consistent imprint of volcanism, with 96{\%} of reconstructed grid points experiencing colder conditions following eruptions. Solar influences are detected at the bicentennial (de Vries) frequency, although at other time scales the influence of insolation variability is weak. Approximately 90{\%} of reconstructed grid points show warmer temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly when compared to the Little Ice Age, although the magnitude varies spatially across the hemisphere. Estimates of field reconstruction skill through time and over space can guide future temporal extension and spatial expansion of the proxy network.},
author = {Anchukaitis, Kevin J and Wilson, Rob and Briffa, Keith R and B{\"{u}}ntgen, Ulf and Cook, Edward R and D'Arrigo, Rosanne and Davi, Nicole and Esper, Jan and Frank, David and Gunnarson, Bj{\"{o}}rn E and Hegerl, Gabi and Helama, Samuli and Klesse, Stefan and Krusic, Paul J and Linderholm, Hans W and Myglan, Vladimir and Osborn, Timothy J and Zhang, Peng and Rydval, Milos and Schneider, Lea and Schurer, Andrew and Wiles, Greg and Zorita, Eduardo},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.020},
issn = {0277-3791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
keywords = {Common Era,Last millennium,Northern Hemisphere,Reconstruction,Spatial,Summer temperatures,Tree-rings},
pages = {1--22},
title = {{Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117301592},
volume = {163},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Anderson2017,
author = {Anderson, Ashley A. and Huntington, Heidi E.},
doi = {10.1177/1075547017735113},
issn = {1075-5470},
journal = {Science Communication},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {598--620},
title = {{Social Media, Science, and Attack Discourse: How Twitter Discussions of Climate Change Use Sarcasm and Incivility}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1075547017735113},
volume = {39},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Andre2014,
author = {Andr{\'{e}}, Jean-Claude and Aloisio, Giovanni and Biercamp, Joachim and Budich, Reinhard and Joussaume, Sylvie and Lawrence, Bryan and Valcke, Sophie},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00098.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {5},
pages = {ES97--ES100},
title = {{High-Performance Computing for Climate Modeling}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00098.1},
volume = {95},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Andrews2010,
author = {Andrews, Timothy and Forster, Piers M. and Boucher, Olivier and Bellouin, Nicolas and Jones, Andy},
doi = {10.1029/2010GL043991},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {hydrological sensitivity,precipitation,radiative forcing},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {L14701},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2010GL043991},
volume = {37},
year = {2010}
}
@article{amt-10-4845-2017,
author = {Angerer, B and Ladst{\"{a}}dter, F and Scherllin-Pirscher, B and Schw{\"{a}}rz, M and Steiner, A K and Foelsche, U and Kirchengast, G},
doi = {10.5194/amt-10-4845-2017},
journal = {Atmospheric Measurement Techniques},
number = {12},
pages = {4845--4863},
title = {{Quality aspects of the Wegener Center multi-satellite GPS radio occultation record OPSv5.6}},
url = {https://www.atmos-meas-tech.net/10/4845/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{esd-8-211-2017,
author = {Annan, J D and Hargreaves, J C},
doi = {10.5194/esd-8-211-2017},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {211--224},
title = {{On the meaning of independence in climate science}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/211/2017/},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{ANTERRIEU201676,
abstract = {The SMOS mission is a European Space Agency project aimed at global monitoring of surface Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity from radiometric L-band observations. Although the L-band is a protected band, the data collected by SMOS are contaminated by radio frequency interferences (RFI) which degrade the performance of the mission. A precise location of the RFI emitters is required for switching off illegal transmissions or for fixing malfunctioning equipments. This work is concerned with the geolocation of such sources with a sub-kilometric accuracy from SMOS interferometric data themselves. Such a precise location has never been reached by any other published methods using only SMOS measurements.},
annote = {Special Issue: ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity Mission - Achievements and Applications},
author = {Anterrieu, Eric and Khazaal, Ali and Cabot, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Kerr, Yann},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2016.02.007},
issn = {0034-4257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {Microwave radiometry,Radio-frequency interference,Source geolocation},
pages = {76--84},
title = {{Geolocation of RFI sources with sub-kilometric accuracy from SMOS interferometric data}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716300359},
volume = {180},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Anthes2011,
abstract = {Abstract. The launch of the proof-of-concept mission GPS/MET (Global Positioning System/Meteorology) in 1995 began a revolution in profiling Earth's atmosphere through radio occultation (RO). GPS/MET; subsequent single-satellite missions CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload), SAC-C (Satellite de Aplicaciones Cientificas-C), GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), METOP-A, and TerraSAR-X (Beyerle et al., 2010); and the six-satellite constellation, FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (Formosa Satellite mission {\{}{\#}{\}}3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) have proven the theoretical capabilities of RO to provide accurate and precise profiles of electron density in the ionosphere and refractivity, containing information on temperature and water vapor, in the stratosphere and troposphere. This paper summarizes results from these RO missions and the applications of RO observations to atmospheric research and operational weather analysis and prediction.},
author = {Anthes, R. A.},
doi = {10.5194/amt-4-1077-2011},
issn = {1867-8548},
journal = {Atmospheric Measurement Techniques},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1077--1103},
title = {{Exploring Earth's atmosphere with radio occultation: contributions to weather, climate and space weather}},
url = {https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/4/1077/2011/},
volume = {4},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Arnold1949,
abstract = {Accessed: 21-12-2017 16:28 UTC JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.},
author = {Arnold, J. R. and Libby, W. F.},
doi = {10.1126/science.110.2869.678},
issn = {00368075},
journal = {Science},
pages = {678--680},
title = {{Age determinations by radiocarbon content: Checks with samples of known age}},
volume = {110},
year = {1949}
}
@article{Arora2020,
author = {Arora, V K and Katavouta, A and Williams, R G and Jones, C D and Brovkin, V and Friedlingstein, P and Schwinger, J and Bopp, L and Boucher, O and Cadule, P and Chamberlain, M A and Christian, J R and Delire, C and Fisher, R A and Hajima, T and Ilyina, T and Joetzjer, E and Kawamiya, M and Koven, C D and Krasting, J P and Law, R M and Lawrence, D M and Lenton, A and Lindsay, K and Pongratz, J and Raddatz, T and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, R and Tachiiri, K and Tjiputra, J F and Wiltshire, A and Wu, T and Ziehn, T},
doi = {10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
number = {16},
pages = {4173--4222},
title = {{Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models}},
url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/4173/2020/},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@book{Arrhenius1908,
address = {New York, NY, USA and London, UK},
annote = {V{\"{a}}rldarnas utveckling (Stockholm: 1906)},
author = {Arrhenius, Svante},
pages = {230},
publisher = {Harper {\&} Brothers Publishers},
title = {{Worlds in the Making: The Evolution of the Universe}},
year = {1908}
}
@article{doi:10.1080/14786449608620846,
author = {Arrhenius, Svante},
doi = {10.1080/14786449608620846},
journal = {The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science},
number = {251},
pages = {237--276},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/14786449608620846},
volume = {41},
year = {1896}
}
@article{Asay-Davis2017,
abstract = {Recent advances in both ocean modeling and melt parameterization in ice-sheet models point the way toward coupled ice sheet–ocean modeling, which is needed to quantify Antarctic mass loss and the resulting sea-level rise. The latest Antarctic ocean modeling shows that complex interactions between the atmosphere, sea ice, icebergs, bathymetric features, and ocean circulation on many scales determine which water masses reach ice-shelf cavities and how much heat is available to melt ice. Meanwhile, parameterizations of basal melting in standalone ice-sheet models have evolved from simplified, depth-dependent functions to more sophisticated models, accounting for ice-shelf basal topography, and the evolution of the sub-ice-shelf buoyant flow. The focus of recent work has been on better understanding processes or adding new model capabilities, but a broader community effort is needed in validating models against observations and producing melt-rate projections. Given time, community efforts in coupled ice sheet–ocean modeling, already underway, will tackle the considerable challenges involved in building, initializing, constraining, and performing projections with coupled models, leading to reduced uncertainties in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise.},
author = {Asay-Davis, Xylar S and Jourdain, Nicolas C and Nakayama, Yoshihiro},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-017-0071-0},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
number = {4},
pages = {316--329},
title = {{Developments in Simulating and Parameterizing Interactions Between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Ice Sheet}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0071-0},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@book{Ashton1997,
address = {Oxford, UK},
author = {Ashton, T.S},
isbn = {9780192892898},
pages = {162},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {{The Industrial Revolution 1760-1830}},
url = {https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-industrial-revolution-1760-1830-9780192892898?cc=im{\&}lang=en{\&}},
year = {1997}
}
@article{Ashwin2012a,
author = {Ashwin, P. and Wieczorek, S. and Vitolo, R. and Cox, P.},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2011.0306},
issn = {1364-503X},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {1962},
pages = {1166--1184},
title = {{Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system}},
url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/doi/10.1098/rsta.2011.0306},
volume = {370},
year = {2012}
}
@article{ATAMPUGRE2019100,
abstract = {Ghana faces numerous risks due to severe variability in climate and extremes. This is particularly true for the northern savannah belts of the country, where rain-fed agriculture is the predominant source of livelihood. Using drought risk in Sudan Savannah Zone as a proxy, the study employed geospatial techniques to assess the spatial distribution of climate risks in semi-arid Ghana, highlighting the probable implications for food security and agriculture-related livelihoods. Drought risk was spatially mapped in ArcGIS 10.5, using data on indicators such as precipitation, temperature, vegetation, soil, land use/cover, and proximity to water bodies. The results showed that two-thirds of the study area had either moderate or high probability of experiencing droughts in every farming season. The implication is that smallholder farm-households in these hotspots could expect moderate to high losses and damages in relation to crop loss, increased food insecurity, and a general loss of livelihood. The paper demonstrates that identifying risk level and its distribution could promote a paradigm shift from emergency response to climate risk adaptation. The use of spatial mapping for climate risk assessment at subnational level enhances decision-support systems by facilitating effective planning, implementation and monitoring of adaptation strategies.},
author = {Atampugre, Gerald and Nursey-Bray, Melissa and Adade, Richard},
doi = {10.1016/j.rsase.2019.01.006},
issn = {2352-9385},
journal = {Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment},
keywords = {Climate risks,Droughts,Food security,Geospatial techniques,Northern Ghana},
pages = {100--107},
title = {{Using geospatial techniques to assess climate risks in savannah agroecological systems}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352938518302908},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{gmd-8-2465-2015,
author = {Aumont, O and Eth{\'{e}}, C and Tagliabue, A and Bopp, L and Gehlen, M},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-8-2465-2015},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {8},
pages = {2465--2513},
title = {{PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/8/2465/2015/},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Baccini230,
abstract = {Are tropical forests a net source or net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide? As fundamental a question as that is, there still is no agreement about the answer, with different studies suggesting that it is anything from a sizable sink to a modest source. Baccini et al. used 12 years of MODIS satellite data to determine how the aboveground carbon density of woody, live vegetation has changed throughout the entire tropics on an annual basis. They find that the tropics are a net carbon source, with losses owing to deforestation and reductions in carbon density within standing forests being double that of gains resulting from forest growth.Science, this issue p. 230The carbon balance of tropical ecosystems remains uncertain, with top-down atmospheric studies suggesting an overall sink and bottom-up ecological approaches indicating a modest net source. Here we use 12 years (2003 to 2014) of MODIS pantropical satellite data to quantify net annual changes in the aboveground carbon density of tropical woody live vegetation, providing direct, measurement-based evidence that the world{\{}$\backslash$textquoteright{\}}s tropical forests are a net carbon source of 425.2 {\{}$\backslash$textpm{\}} 92.0 teragrams of carbon per year (Tg C year{\{}$\backslash$textendash{\}}1). This net release of carbon consists of losses of 861.7 {\{}$\backslash$textpm{\}} 80.2 Tg C year{\{}$\backslash$textendash{\}}1 and gains of 436.5 {\{}$\backslash$textpm{\}} 31.0 Tg C year{\{}$\backslash$textendash{\}}1. Gains result from forest growth; losses result from deforestation and from reductions in carbon density within standing forests (degradation or disturbance), with the latter accounting for 68.9{\%} of overall losses.},
author = {Baccini, A and Walker, W and Carvalho, L and Farina, M and Sulla-Menashe, D and Houghton, R A},
doi = {10.1126/science.aam5962},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
number = {6360},
pages = {230--234},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Tropical forests are a net carbon source based on aboveground measurements of gain and loss}},
url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6360/230},
volume = {358},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bador2020,
abstract = {Abstract Finer grids in global climate models could lead to an improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes. We assess the influence on model performance of increasing spatial resolution by evaluating pairs of high- and low-resolution forced atmospheric simulations from six global climate models (generally the latest CMIP6 version) on a common 1° ? 1° grid. The differences in tuning between the lower and higher resolution versions are as limited as possible, which allows the influence of higher resolution to be assessed exclusively. We focus on the 1985?2014 climatology of annual extremes of daily precipitation over global land, and models are compared to observations from different sources (i.e., in situ-based and satellite-based) to enable consideration of observational uncertainty. Finally, we address regional features of model performance based on four indices characterizing different aspects of precipitation extremes. Our analysis highlights good agreement between models that precipitation extremes are more intense at higher resolution. We find that the spread among observations is substantial and can be as large as intermodel differences, which makes the quantitative evaluation of model performance difficult. However, consistently across the four precipitation extremes indices that we investigate, models often show lower skill at higher resolution compared to their corresponding lower resolution version. Our findings suggest that increasing spatial resolution alone is not sufficient to obtain a systematic improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes, and other improvements (e.g., physics and tuning) may be required.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032184},
author = {Bador, Margot and Bo{\'{e}}, Julien and Terray, Laurent and Alexander, Lisa V and Baker, Alexander and Bellucci, Alessio and Haarsma, Rein and Koenigk, Torben and Moine, Marie-Pierre and Lohmann, Katja and Putrasahan, Dian A and Roberts, Chris and Roberts, Malcolm and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Schiemann, Reinhard and Seddon, Jon and Senan, Retish and Valcke, Sophie and Vanniere, Benoit},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD032184},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {global climate models for CMIP6 and HighResMIP,multimodel and multiproduct of observations framew,performance of the models,precipitation extremes,sensitivity to atmospheric spatial resolution},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {e2019JD032184},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Impact of Higher Spatial Atmospheric Resolution on Precipitation Extremes Over Land in Global Climate Models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032184},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{gmd-11-3659-2018,
author = {Balaji, V and Taylor, K E and Juckes, M and Lawrence, B N and Durack, P J and Lautenschlager, M and Blanton, C and Cinquini, L and Denvil, S and Elkington, M and Guglielmo, F and Guilyardi, E and Hassell, D and Kharin, S and Kindermann, S and Nikonov, S and Radhakrishnan, A and Stockhause, M and Weigel, T and Williams, D},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-3659-2018},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {9},
pages = {3659--3680},
title = {{Requirements for a global data infrastructure in support of CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/3659/2018/},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Balaji2017,
author = {Balaji, V and Maisonnave, E and Zadeh, N and Lawrence, B N and Biercamp, J and Fladrich, U and Aloisio, G and Benson, R and Caubel, A and Durachta, J and Foujols, M.-A. and Lister, G and Mocavero, S and Underwood, S and Wright, G},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-19-2017},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {1},
pages = {19--34},
title = {{CPMIP: measurements of real computational performance of Earth system models in CMIP6}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/10/19/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Balco2020a,
abstract = {Surface exposure dating using cosmic-ray-produced nuclides has been applied to determine the age of thousands of landforms produced by alpine glaciers in mountain areas worldwide. These data are potentially an extensive, easily accessible, and globally distributed paleoclimate record. In particular, exposure-dated glacier chronologies are commonly applied to study the dynamics of massive, abrupt climate changes characteristic of the transition between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present interglacial climate. This article reviews developments in exposure dating from the perspective of whether this goal is achievable and concludes that ( a) individual exposure-dated landforms cannot, in general, be associated with millennial-scale climate events at high confidence, but ( b) dating uncertainties appear to be geographically and temporally unbiased, so the data set as a whole can be used to gain valuable insight into regional and global paleoclimate dynamics. Future applications of exposure-age chronologies of glacier change should move away from reliance on individual dated landforms and toward synoptic analysis of the global data set.},
author = {Balco, Greg},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-earth-081619-052609},
issn = {0084-6597},
journal = {Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {21--48},
title = {{Glacier Change and Paleoclimate Applications of Cosmogenic-Nuclide Exposure Dating}},
url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-earth-081619-052609},
volume = {48},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Balco2020,
abstract = {Abstract. Geologic dating methods for the most part do not directly measure ages. Instead, interpreting a geochemical observation as a geologically useful parameter – an age or a rate – requires an interpretive middle layer of calculations and supporting data sets. These are the subject of active research and evolve rapidly, so any synoptic analysis requires repeated recalculation of large numbers of ages from a growing data set of raw observations, using a constantly improving calculation method. Many important applications of geochronology involve regional or global analyses of large and growing data sets, so this characteristic is an obstacle to progress in these applications. This paper describes the ICE-D (Informal Cosmogenic-Nuclide Exposure-age Database) database project, a prototype computational infrastructure for dealing with this obstacle in one geochronological application – cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating – that aims to enable visualization or analysis of diverse data sets by making middle-layer calculations dynamic and transparent to the user. An important aspect of this concept is that it is designed as a forward-looking research tool rather than a backward-looking archive: only observational data (which do not become obsolete) are stored, and derived data (which become obsolete as soon as the middle-layer calculations are improved) are not stored but instead calculated dynamically at the time data are needed by an analysis application. This minimizes “lock-in” effects associated with archiving derived results subject to rapid obsolescence and allows assimilation of both new observational data and improvements to middle-layer calculations without creating additional overhead at the level of the analysis application.},
author = {Balco, Greg},
doi = {10.5194/gchron-2-169-2020},
issn = {2628-3719},
journal = {Geochronology},
month = {jul},
number = {2},
pages = {169--175},
title = {{Technical note: A prototype transparent-middle-layer data management and analysis infrastructure for cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating}},
url = {https://gchron.copernicus.org/articles/2/169/2020/},
volume = {2},
year = {2020}
}
@article{doi:10.1080/1755876X.2015.1022329,
author = {Balmaseda, M A and Hernandez, F and Storto, A and Palmer, M D and Alves, O and Shi, L and Smith, G C and Toyoda, T and Valdivieso, M and Barnier, B and Behringer, D and Boyer, T and Chang, Y-S. and Chepurin, G A and Ferry, N and Forget, G and Fujii, Y and Good, S and Guinehut, S and Haines, K and Ishikawa, Y and Keeley, S and K{\"{o}}hl, A and Lee, T and Martin, M J and Masina, S and Masuda, S and Meyssignac, B and Mogensen, K and Parent, L and Peterson, K A and Tang, Y M and Yin, Y and Vernieres, G and Wang, X and Waters, J and Wedd, R and Wang, O and Xue, Y and Chevallier, M and Lemieux, J-F. and Dupont, F and Kuragano, T and Kamachi, M and Awaji, T and Caltabiano, A and Wilmer-Becker, K and Gaillard, F},
doi = {10.1080/1755876X.2015.1022329},
journal = {Journal of Operational Oceanography},
number = {sup1},
pages = {s80--s97},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{The Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1022329},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bamber2018,
author = {Bamber, Jonathan L and Westaway, Richard M and Marzeion, Ben and Wouters, Bert},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f0},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {063008},
title = {{The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=6/a=063008?key=crossref.a29d19ff8e92d45a021c6aca08d2c874},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Banerjee2020b,
abstract = {Observations show robust near-surface trends in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation towards the end of the twentieth century, including a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet1,2, a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode1,3–6 and an expansion of the Hadley cell7,8. It has been established that these trends were driven by ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere due to emissions of ozone-depleting substances9–11. Here we show that these widely reported circulation trends paused, or slightly reversed, around the year 2000. Using a pattern-based detection and attribution analysis of atmospheric zonal wind, we show that the pause in circulation trends is forced by human activities, and has not occurred owing only to internal or natural variability of the climate system. Furthermore, we demonstrate that stratospheric ozone recovery, resulting from the Montreal Protocol, is the key driver of the pause. Because pre-2000 circulation trends have affected precipitation12–14, and potentially ocean circulation and salinity15–17, we anticipate that a pause in these trends will have wider impacts on the Earth system. Signatures of the effects of the Montreal Protocol and the associated stratospheric ozone recovery might therefore manifest, or have already manifested, in other aspects of the Earth system.},
author = {Banerjee, Antara and Fyfe, John C. and Polvani, Lorenzo M. and Waugh, Darryn and Chang, Kai Lan},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2120-4},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7800},
pages = {544--548},
pmid = {32214266},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{A pause in Southern Hemisphere circulation trends due to the Montreal Protocol}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2120-4},
volume = {579},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Banks2002,
abstract = {A coupled climate model has been used to provide preliminary guidance on which ocean observations will be most useful for early detection of anthropogenic climate change. Given the sparsity of historical ocean measurements, early detection may need to be based on the differences between two snapshots of the ocean. This is the basis for this analysis. Sea surface temperature is shown to give a particularly good signal-to-noise ratio, justifying the use of surface temperature in almost all detection studies to date. Meridional heat transports are unlikely to be useful for detection of anthropogenic change, while measurements of the thermohaline circulation may require continuous time series. Previously subsurface temperature has been used in a integrated way to detect change. It is shown that subsurface temperature and salinity have the potential for detecting anthropogenic change on both pressure and density surfaces over 30 years. These results highlight the potential high signal-to-noise ratio in particular areas of the ocean: the Arctic and Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. Given that there already are historical measurements of the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity, this suggests that, in terms of detection of change in the ocean, monitoring of these should probably be one of the highest priorities and there should be an attempt to monitor regions (such as the Southern Ocean) that are historically data sparse. The results of this work will be of interest to observationalists and policy makers looking for an objective assessment of where to measure the ocean.},
author = {Banks, Helene and Wood, Richard},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0879:WTLFAC>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {879--891},
title = {{Where to Look for Anthropogenic Climate Change in the Ocean}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015{\%}3C0879:WTLFAC{\%}3E2.0.CO;2},
volume = {15},
year = {2002}
}
@article{Barnett1987,
author = {Barnett, Tim P. and Schlesinger, Michael E.},
doi = {10.1029/JD092iD12p14772},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {D12},
pages = {14772},
title = {{Detecting changes in global climate induced by greenhouse gases}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/JD092iD12p14772},
volume = {92},
year = {1987}
}
@article{Barrett2018,
author = {Barrett, Hannah G. and Jones, Julie M. and Bigg, Grant R.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3797-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3131--3152},
title = {{Reconstructing El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1815–1854. Part II: Comparisons with existing ENSO reconstructions and implications for reconstructing ENSO diversity}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3797-4},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bathiany2020,
abstract = {The most discernible and devastating impacts of climate change are caused by events with temporary extreme conditions (“extreme events”) or abrupt shifts to a new persistent climate state (“tipping points”). The rapidly growing amount of data from models and observations poses the challenge to reliably detect where, when, why, and how these events occur. This situation calls for data-mining approaches that can detect and diagnose events in an automatic and reproducible way. Here, we apply a new strategy to this task by generalizing the classical machine-vision problem of detecting edges in 2D images to many dimensions (including time). Our edge detector identifies abrupt or extreme climate events in spatiotemporal data, quantifies their abruptness (or extremeness), and provides diagnostics that help one to understand the causes of these shifts. We also publish a comprehensive toolset of code that is documented and free to use. We document the performance of the new edge detector by analyzing several datasets of observations and models. In particular, we apply it to all monthly 2D variables of the RCP8.5 scenario of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). More than half of all simulations show abrupt shifts of more than 4 standard deviations on a time scale of 10 years. These shifts are mostly related to the loss of sea ice and permafrost in the Arctic. Our results demonstrate that the edge detector is particularly useful to scan large datasets in an efficient way, for example multimodel or perturbed-physics ensembles. It can thus help to reveal hidden “climate surprises” and to assess the uncertainties of dangerous climate events.},
author = {Bathiany, Sebastian and Hidding, Johan and Scheffer, Marten},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0449.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {6399--6421},
title = {{Edge Detection Reveals Abrupt and Extreme Climate Events}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/15/6399/346908/Edge-Detection-Reveals-Abrupt-and-Extreme-Climate},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Batten2019,
abstract = {Plankton are the base of marine food webs, essential to sustaining fisheries and other marine life. Continuous Plankton Recorders (CPRs) have sampled plankton for decades in both hemispheres and several regional seas. CPR research has been integral to advancing understanding of plankton dynamics and informing policy and management decisions. We describe how the CPR can contribute to global plankton diversity monitoring, being cost-effective over large scales and providing taxonomically resolved data. At OceanObs09 an integrated network of regional CPR surveys was envisaged and in 2011 the existing surveys formed the Global Alliance of CPR Surveys (GACS). GACS first focused on strengthening the dataset by identifying and documenting CPR best practices, delivering training workshops, and developing an integrated database. This resulted in the initiation of new surveys and manuals that enable regional surveys to be standardized and integrated. GACS is not yet global, but it could be expanded into the remaining oceans; tropical and Arctic regions are a priority for survey expansion. The capacity building groundwork is done, but funding is required to implement the GACS vision of a global plankton sampling program that supports decision-making for the scientific and policy communities. A key step is an analysis to optimize the global sampling design. Further developments include expanding the CPR for multidisciplinary measurements via additional sensors, thus maximizing the ship-of-opportunity platform. For example, defining pelagic ecoregions based on plankton and ancillary data could support high seas Marine Protected Area design. Fulfillment of Aichi Target 15, the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals, and delivering the Essential Ocean Variables and Essential Biodiversity Variables that the Global Ocean Observing System and Group on Earth Observation's Biodiversity Observation Network have, respectively, defined requires the taxonomic resolution, spatial scale and time-series data that the CPR approach provides. Synergies with global networks exploiting satellite data and other plankton sensors could be explored, realizing the Survey's capacity to validate earth observation data and to ground-truth emerging plankton observing platforms. This is required for a fully integrated ocean observing system that can understand global ocean dynamics to inform sustainable marine decision-making.},
author = {Batten, Sonia D and Abu-Alhaija, Rana and Chiba, Sanae and Edwards, Martin and Graham, George and Jyothibabu, R and Kitchener, John A and Koubbi, Philippe and McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail and Muxagata, Erik and Ostle, Clare and Richardson, Anthony J and Robinson, Karen V and Takahashi, Kunio T and Verheye, Hans M and Wilson, Willie},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00321},
isbn = {2296-7745},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
month = {jun},
pages = {321},
title = {{A Global Plankton Diversity Monitoring Program}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00321 https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00321/full},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Baumberger2017,
abstract = {Climate model projections are used to inform policy decisions and constitute a major focus of climate research. Confidence in climate projections relies on the adequacy of climate models for those projections. The question of how to argue for the adequacy of models for climate projections has not gotten sufficient attention in the climate modeling community. The most common way to evaluate a climate model is to assess in a quantitative way degrees of ?model fit?; that is, how well model results fit observation-based data (empirical accuracy) and agree with other models or model versions (robustness). However, such assessments are largely silent about what those degrees of fit imply for a model's adequacy for projecting future climate. We provide a conceptual framework for discussing the evaluation of the adequacy of models for climate projections. Drawing on literature from philosophy of science and climate science, we discuss the potential and limits of inferences from model fit. We suggest that support of a model by background knowledge is an additional consideration that can be appealed to in arguments for a model's adequacy for long-term projections, and that this should explicitly be spelled out. Empirical accuracy, robustness and support by background knowledge neither individually nor collectively constitute sufficient conditions in a strict sense for a model's adequacy for long-term projections. However, they provide reasons that can be strengthened by additional information and thus contribute to a complex non-deductive argument for the adequacy of a climate model or a family of models for long-term climate projections. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e454. doi: 10.1002/wcc.454 This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling {\textgreater} Knowledge Generation with Models},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/wcc.454},
author = {Baumberger, Christoph and Knutti, Reto and {Hirsch Hadorn}, Gertrude},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.454},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {e454},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.454},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Beck2018b,
author = {Beck, Hylke E and Zimmermann, Niklaus E and McVicar, Tim R and Vergopolan, Noemi and Berg, Alexis and Wood, Eric F},
doi = {10.1038/sdata.2018.214},
journal = {Scientific Data},
month = {oct},
number = {1},
pages = {180214},
publisher = {The Author(s)},
title = {{Present and future K{\"{o}}ppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.214 http://10.0.4.14/sdata.2018.214},
volume = {5},
year = {2018}
}
@article{hess-21-589-2017,
author = {Beck, H E and van Dijk, A I J M and Levizzani, V and Schellekens, J and Miralles, D G and Martens, B and de Roo, A},
doi = {10.5194/hess-21-589-2017},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {1},
pages = {589--615},
title = {{MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25{\textordmasculine} global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/589/2017/},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Beck2018a,
author = {Beck, Jonas and Bock, Michael and Schmitt, Jochen and Seth, Barbara and Blunier, Thomas and Fischer, Hubertus},
doi = {10.5194/bg-15-7155-2018},
issn = {1726-4189},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
keywords = {Beck2018b},
month = {nov},
number = {23},
pages = {7155--7175},
title = {{Bipolar carbon and hydrogen isotope constraints on the Holocene methane budget}},
url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/15/7155/2018/},
volume = {15},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Becker2013,
abstract = {Abstract. The availability of highly accessible and reliable monthly gridded data sets of global land-surface precipitation is a need that was already identified in the mid-1980s when there was a complete lack of globally homogeneous gauge-based precipitation analyses. Since 1989, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) has built up its unique capacity to assemble, quality assure, and analyse rain gauge data gathered from all over the world. The resulting database has exceeded 200 yr in temporal coverage and has acquired data from more than 85 000 stations worldwide. Based on this database, this paper provides the reference publication for the four globally gridded monthly precipitation products of the GPCC, covering a 111-yr analysis period from 1901–present. As required for a reference publication, the content of the product portfolio, as well as the underlying methodologies to process and interpolate are detailed. Moreover, we provide information on the systematic and statistical errors associated with the data products. Finally, sample applications provide potential users of GPCC data products with suitable advice on capabilities and constraints of the gridded data sets. In doing so, the capabilities to access El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) sensitive precipitation regions and to perform trend analyses across the past 110 yr are demonstrated. The four gridded products, i.e. the Climatology (CLIM) V2011, the Full Data Reanalysis (FD) V6, the Monitoring Product (MP) V4, and the First Guess Product (FG), are publicly available on easily accessible latitude/longitude grids encoded in zipped clear text ASCII files for subsequent visualization and download through the GPCC download gate hosted on ftp://ftp.dwd.de/pub/data/gpcc/html/download{\_}gate.html by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach, Germany. Depending on the product, four (0.25°, 0.5°, 1.0°, 2.5° for CLIM), three (0.5°, 1.0°, 2.5°, for FD), two (1.0°, 2.5° for MP) or one (1.0° for FG) resolution is provided, and for each product a DOI reference is provided allowing for public user access to the products. A preliminary description of the scope of a fifth product – the Homogenized Precipitation Analysis (HOMPRA) – is also provided. Its comprehensive description will be submitted later in an extra paper upon completion of this data product. DOIs of the gridded data sets examined are as follows: doi:10.5676/DWD{\_}GPCC/CLIM{\_}M{\_}V2011{\_}025, doi:10.5676/DWD{\_}GPCC/CLIM{\_}M{\_}V2011{\_}050, doi:10.5676/DWD{\_}GPCC/CLIM{\_}M{\_}V2011{\_}100, doi:10.5676/DWD{\_}GPCC/CLIM{\_}M{\_}V2011{\_}250, doi:10.5676/DWD{\_}GPCC/FD{\_}M{\_}V6{\_}050, doi:10.5676/DWD{\_}GPCC/FD{\_}M{\_}V6{\_}100, doi:10.5676/DWD{\_}GPCC/FD{\_}M{\_}V6{\_}250, doi:10.5676/DWD{\_}GPCC/MP{\_}M{\_}V4{\_}100, doi:10.5676/DWD{\_}GPCC/MP{\_}M{\_}V4{\_}250, doi:10.5676/DWD{\_}GPCC/FG{\_}M{\_}100.},
author = {Becker, A. and Finger, P. and Meyer-Christoffer, A. and Rudolf, B. and Schamm, K. and Schneider, U. and Ziese, M.},
doi = {10.5194/essd-5-71-2013},
issn = {1866-3516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {71--99},
title = {{A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901–present}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/5/71/2013/},
volume = {5},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Belda2016,
annote = {10.3354/cr01418},
author = {Belda, M and Holtanov{\'{a}}, E and Kalvov{\'{a}}, J and Halenka, T},
doi = {10.3354/cr01418},
journal = {Climate Research},
number = {1},
pages = {17--31},
title = {{Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections}},
url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v71/n1/p17-31/},
volume = {71},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Belda2015,
annote = {10.3354/cr01316},
author = {Belda, M and Holtanov{\'{a}}, E and Halenka, T and Kalvov{\'{a}}, J and Hl{\'{a}}vka, Z},
doi = {10.3354/cr01316},
journal = {Climate Research},
number = {3},
pages = {201--212},
title = {{Evaluation of CMIP5 present climate simulations using the K{\"{o}}ppen–Trewartha climate classification}},
url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v64/n3/p201-212/},
volume = {64},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Belda2014a,
abstract = {ABSTRACT: The analysis of climate patterns can be performed separately for each climatic variable or the data can be aggregated, for example, by using a climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution, in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. Thus, climatic classifications also represent a convenient tool for the validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. Basic concepts are presented by applying climate classification to the global Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS 3.1 global dataset. We focus on definitions of climate types according to the K{\"{o}}ppen-Trewartha climate classification (KTC) with special attention given to the distinction between wet and dry climates. The distribution of KTC types is compared with the original K{\"{o}}ppen classification (KCC) for the period 1961-1990. In addition, we provide an analysis of the time development of the distribution of KTC types throughout the 20th century. There are observable changes identified in some subtypes, especially semi-arid, savanna and tundra.},
author = {Belda, M and Holtanov{\'{a}}, E and Halenka, T and Kalvov{\'{a}}, J},
doi = {10.3354/cr01204},
issn = {0936-577X},
journal = {Climate Research},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {1--13},
title = {{Climate classification revisited: from K{\"{o}}ppen to Trewartha}},
url = {http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v59/n1/p1-13/},
volume = {59},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Bellenger2014,
author = {Bellenger, H. and Guilyardi, E. and Leloup, J. and Lengaigne, M. and Vialard, J.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1783-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {1999--2018},
title = {{ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-013-1783-z},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Benveniste2018,
annote = {Times cited: 10},
author = {Benveniste, H{\'{e}}l{\`{e}}ne and Boucher, Olivier and Guivarch, C{\'{e}}line and Treut, Herv{\'{e}} Le and Criqui, Patrick},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaa0b9},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {NDCs},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {014022},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa0b9 http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=1/a=014022?key=crossref.0425f40986caf3dddd8a8239f781d78b},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bereiter2015,
author = {Bereiter, Bernhard and Eggleston, Sarah and Schmitt, Jochen and Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph and Stocker, Thomas F. and Fischer, Hubertus and Kipfstuhl, Sepp and Chappellaz, Jerome},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL061957},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {542--549},
title = {{Revision of the EPICA Dome C CO2 record from 800 to 600 kyr before present}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL061957},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{BERGER1977,
author = {Berger, A. L.},
doi = {10.1038/269044a0},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {sep},
number = {5623},
pages = {44--45},
title = {{Support for the astronomical theory of climatic change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/269044a0},
volume = {269},
year = {1977}
}
@article{Berger1978,
author = {Berger, Andr{\'{e}} L.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:LTVODI>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0022-4928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {2362--2367},
title = {{Long-Term Variations of Daily Insolation and Quaternary Climatic Changes}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469{\%}281978{\%}29035{\%}3C2362{\%}3ALTVODI{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {35},
year = {1978}
}
@article{Berner2016,
abstract = {AbstractThe last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range, and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to represent model inadequacy better and to improve the quantification of forecast uncertainty. Developed initially for numerical weather prediction, the inclusion of stochastic parameterizations not only provides better estimates of uncertainty, but it is also extremely promising for reducing long-standing climate biases and is relevant for determining the climate response to external forcing. This article highlights recent developments from different research groups that show that the stochastic representation of unresolved processes in the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere of comprehensive weather and climate models 1) gives rise to more reliable probabilistic forecasts of weather and climate and 2) reduces systematic model bias. We make a case that the use of mathematically stringent methods for the derivation of stochastic dynamic equations will lead to substantial improvements in our ability to accurately simulate weather and climate at all scales. Recent work in mathematics, statistical mechanics, and turbulence is reviewed; its relevance for the climate problem is demonstrated; and future research directions are outlined.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00268.1},
author = {Berner, Judith and Achatz, Ulrich and Batt{\'{e}}, Lauriane and Bengtsson, Lisa and de la C{\'{a}}mara, Alvaro and Christensen, Hannah M and Colangeli, Matteo and Coleman, Danielle R B and Crommelin, Daan and Dolaptchiev, Stamen I and Franzke, Christian L E and Friederichs, Petra and Imkeller, Peter and J{\"{a}}rvinen, Heikki and Juricke, Stephan and Kitsios, Vassili and Lott, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Lucarini, Valerio and Mahajan, Salil and Palmer, Timothy N and Penland, C{\'{e}}cile and Sakradzija, Mirjana and von Storch, Jin-Song and Weisheimer, Antje and Weniger, Michael and Williams, Paul D and Yano, Jun-Ichi},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00268.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {565--588},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Stochastic Parameterization: Toward a New View of Weather and Climate Models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00268.1},
volume = {98},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Berner1995,
author = {Berner, Robert A},
doi = {10.2475/ajs.295.5.491},
journal = {American Journal of Science},
number = {5},
pages = {491--495},
title = {{A. G. H{\"{o}}gbom and the development of the concept of the geochemical carbon cycle}},
volume = {295},
year = {1995}
}
@article{Bernie2008a,
abstract = {Coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (GCM) are typically coupled once every 24 h, excluding the diurnal cycle from the upper ocean. Previous studies attempting to examine the role of the diurnal cycle of the upper ocean and particularly of diurnal SST variability have used models unable to resolve the processes of interest. In part 1 of this study a high vertical resolution ocean GCM configuration with modified physics was developed that could resolve the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean. In this study it is coupled every 3 h to atmospheric GCM to examine the sensitivity of the mean climate simulation and aspects of its variability to the inclusion of diurnal ocean-atmosphere coupling.},
author = {Bernie, D J and Guilyardi, E and Madec, G and Slingo, J M and Woolnough, S J and Cole, J},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-008-0429-z},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {7},
pages = {909--925},
title = {{Impact of resolving the diurnal cycle in an ocean–atmosphere GCM. Part 2: A diurnally coupled CGCM}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0429-z},
volume = {31},
year = {2008}
}
@article{BESSHO2016,
author = {Bessho, Kotaro and Date, Kenji and Hayashi, Masahiro and Ikeda, Akio and Imai, Takahito and Inoue, Hidekazu and Kumagai, Yukihiro and Miyakawa, Takuya and Murata, Hidehiko and Ohno, Tomoo and Okuyama, Arata and Oyama, Ryo and Sasaki, Yukio and Shimazu, Yoshio and Shimoji, Kazuki and Sumida, Yasuhiko and Suzuki, Masuo and Taniguchi, Hidetaka and Tsuchiyama, Hiroaki and Uesawa, Daisaku and Yokota, Hironobu and Yoshida, Ryo},
doi = {10.2151/jmsj.2016-009},
journal = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Series II},
number = {2},
pages = {151--183},
title = {{An Introduction to Himawari-8/9 – Japan's New-Generation Geostationary Meteorological Satellites}},
volume = {94},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bethke2017,
author = {Bethke, Ingo and Outten, Stephen and Otter{\aa}, Odd Helge and Hawkins, Ed and Wagner, Sebastian and Sigl, Michael and Thorne, Peter},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3394},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {799--805},
title = {{Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3394},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Beusch2020,
abstract = {Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are invaluable tools to study the climate system's response to specific greenhouse gas emission pathways. Large single-model initial-condition and multi-model ensembles are used to investigate the range of possible responses and serve as input to climate impact and integrated assessment models. Thereby, climate signal uncertainty is propagated along the uncertainty chain and its effect on interactions between humans and the Earth system can be quantified. However, generating both single-model initial-condition and multi-model ensembles is computationally expensive. In this study, we assess the feasibility of geographically explicit climate model emulation, i.e., of statistically producing large ensembles of land temperature field time series that closely resemble ESM runs at a negligible computational cost. For this purpose, we develop a modular emulation framework which consists of (i) a global mean temperature module, (ii) a local temperature response module, and (iii) a local residual temperature variability module. Based on this framework, MESMER, a Modular Earth System Model Emulator with spatially Resolved output, is built. We first show that to successfully mimic single-model initial-condition ensembles of yearly temperature from 1870 to 2100 on grid-point to regional scales with MESMER, it is sufficient to train on a single ESM run, but separate emulators need to be calibrated for individual ESMs given fundamental inter-model differences. We then emulate 40 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to create a “superensemble”, i.e., a large ensemble which closely resembles a multi-model initial-condition ensemble. The thereby emerging ESM-specific emulator parameters provide essential insights on inter-model differences across a broad range of scales and characterize core properties of each ESM. Our results highlight that, for temperature at the spatiotemporal scales considered here, it is likely more advantageous to invest computational resources into generating multi-model ensembles rather than large single-model initial-condition ensembles. Such multi-model ensembles can be extended to superensembles with emulators like the one presented here.},
author = {Beusch, Lea and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-11-139-2020},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {139--159},
title = {{Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/139/2020/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Beusch2020a,
abstract = {Abstract The newest generation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exhibits a larger spread in temperature projections at the end of the 21st century than the previous generation. Here, a modular Earth System Model emulator is used to evaluate the realism of the warming signal in CMIP6 models on both global and regional scales, by comparing their global trends and regional response parameters to observations. Subsequently, the emulator is employed to derive large ?crossbred? multimodel initial-condition ensembles of regionally optimized land temperature projections by combining observationally constrained global mean temperature trend trajectories with observationally constrained local parameters. In the optimized ensembles, the warmest temperature projections are generally reduced and for the coolest projections both higher and lower values are found, depending on the region. The median shows less changes in large parts of the globe. These regional differences highlight the importance of a geographically explicit evaluation of Earth System Model projections.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086812},
author = {Beusch, Lea and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Seneviratne, Sonia I},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086812},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {e2019GL086812},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Crossbreeding CMIP6 Earth System Models With an Emulator for Regionally Optimized Land Temperature Projections}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086812},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Bindoff2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Bindoff, N L and Stott, P A and AchutaRao, K M and Allen, M R and Gillett, N and Gutzler, D and Hansingo, K and Hegerl, G and Hu, Y and Jain, S and Mokhov, I I and Overland, J and Perlwitz, J and Sebbari, R and Zhang, X},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {10},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.022},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {867--952},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Birkel2018b,
author = {Birkel, Sean D. and Mayewski, Paul A. and Maasch, Kirk A. and Kurbatov, Andrei V. and Lyon, Bradfield},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-018-0036-6},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {24},
title = {{Evidence for a volcanic underpinning of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0036-6},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bishop2013,
author = {Bishop, Craig H. and Abramowitz, Gab},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1610-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {885--900},
title = {{Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1610-y},
volume = {41},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Bishop2016,
abstract = {The Southern Ocean's Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and meridional overturning circulation (MOC) response to increasing zonal wind stress is, for the first time, analyzed in a high-resolution (0.1° ocean and 0.25° atmosphere), fully coupled global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model. Results from a 20-yr wind perturbation experiment, where the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind stress is increased by 50{\%} south of 30°S, show only marginal changes in the mean ACC transport through Drake Passage—an increase of 6{\%} [136–144 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1)] in the perturbation experiment compared with the control. However, the upper and lower circulation cells of the MOC do change. The lower cell is more affected than the upper cell with a maximum increase of 64{\%} versus 39{\%}, respectively. Changes in the MOC are directly linked to changes in water mass transformation from shifting surface isopycnals and sea ice melt, giving rise to changes in surface buoyancy forcing. The increase in transport of the lower cell leads to upwelling of warm and salty Circumpolar Deep Water and subsequent melting of sea ice surrounding Antarctica. The MOC is commonly supposed to be the sum of two opposing components: a wind- and transient-eddy overturning cell. Here, the transient-eddy overturning is virtually unchanged and consistent with a large-scale cancellation of localized regions of both enhancement and suppression of eddy kinetic energy along the mean path of the ACC. However, decomposing the time-mean overturning into a time- and zonal-mean component and a standing-eddy component reveals partial compensation between wind-driven and standing-eddy components of the circulation.},
author = {Bishop, Stuart P and Gent, Peter R and Bryan, Frank O and Thompson, Andrew F and Long, Matthew C and Abernathey, Ryan},
doi = {10.1175/JPO-D-15-0177.1},
issn = {0022-3670},
journal = {Journal of Physical Oceanography},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {1575--1592},
title = {{Southern Ocean Overturning Compensation in an Eddy-Resolving Climate Simulation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0177.1},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Biskaborn2015,
author = {Biskaborn, B K and Lanckman, J.-P. and Lantuit, H and Elger, K and Streletskiy, D A and Cable, W L and Romanovsky, V E},
doi = {10.5194/essd-7-245-2015},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
number = {2},
pages = {245--259},
title = {{The new database of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P)}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/7/245/2015/},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@book{Bjerknes1910,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Bjerknes, Vilhelm Friman Koren and Sandstr{\"{o}}m, Johan Wilhelm and Hesselberg, Theodor and Devik, Olak Martin},
keywords = {Meteorology.,Ocean.},
pages = {2 v.},
publisher = {Carnegie Institution of Washington},
title = {{Dynamic Meteorology and Hydrography}},
year = {1910}
}
@book{Bjerknes1906,
address = {New York, NY, USA},
author = {Bjerknes, Vilhelm Friman Koren},
keywords = {Electromagnetic theory,Hydrodynamics},
pages = {160},
publisher = {Columbia University Press},
title = {{Fields of force; supplementary lectures, applications to meteorology; a course of lectures in mathematical physics delivered December 1 to 23, 1905}},
year = {1906}
}
@article{Blackwell2014a,
abstract = {The synergistic use of microwave and hyperspectral infrared sounding observations gives rise to a rich array of signal processing challenges. Of particular interest are the following elements which are combined for the first time in the retrieval technique presented here: (1) radiance noise filtering and redundancy removal (compression) using principal components transforms and canonical correlations, (2) data fusion (infrared plus microwave at possibly different spatial and spectral resolutions) and stochastic cloud clearing (SCC), and (3) geophysical product retrieval from spectral radiance measurements using neural networks. In this paper, we describe the algorithm and demonstrate performance using the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). We show that performance is improved by approximately 25{\%}-50{\%} using the neural network method relative to other common techniques. Furthermore, we quantify the improvement in the vertical resolution of the retrieved products.},
author = {Blackwell, W J and Milstein, A B},
doi = {10.1109/JSTARS.2014.2304701},
issn = {2151-1535 VO  - 7},
journal = {IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing},
keywords = {Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit,Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU),Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS),Artificial neural networks,Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS),Atmospheric Infrared Sounder,Atmospheric measurements,Clouds,Geophysical measurements,Microwave measurement,Microwave theory and techniques,atmospheric techniques,canonical correlations,clouds,cloudy atmospheres,data fusion,geophysical product retrieval,geophysics computing,high-resolution profiling,humidity,hyperspectral,hyperspectral infrared sounding observations,infrared,inversion,microwave,microwave observations,moisture,neural nets,neural network retrieval technique,neural networks (NNs),principal component analysis,principal component transforms,principal components,radiance noise filtering,redundancy,redundancy removal,retrieval,retrieval technique,sensor fusion,signal processing,sounding,spatial resolutions,spectral radiance measurements,spectral resolutions,stochastic cloud clearing,stochastic processes,temperature},
number = {4},
pages = {1260--1270},
title = {{A Neural Network Retrieval Technique for High-Resolution Profiling of Cloudy Atmospheres}},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2017GL076829,
abstract = {Abstract Multimodel ensembles are the main way to deal with model uncertainties in climate projections. However, the interdependencies between models that often share entire components make it difficult to combine their results in a satisfactory way. In this study, how the replication of components (atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice) between climate models impacts the proximity of their results is quantified precisely, in terms of climatological means and future changes. A clear relationship exists between the number of components shared by climate models and the proximity of their results. Even the impact of a single shared component is generally visible. These conclusions are true at both the global and regional scales. Given available data, it cannot be robustly concluded that some components are more important than others. Those results provide ways to estimate model interdependencies a priori rather than a posteriori based on their results, in order to define independence weights.},
author = {Bo{\'{e}}, Julien},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076829},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,model independence,model weighting,multimodel,probabilistic projection},
number = {6},
pages = {2771--2779},
title = {{Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL076829},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Boe2020,
abstract = {Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951-2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends.},
author = {Bo{\'{e}}, Julien and Terray, Laurent and Moine, Marie Pierre and Valcke, Sophie and Bellucci, Alessio and Drijfhout, Sybren and Haarsma, Rein and Lohmann, Katja and Putrasahan, Dian A. and Roberts, Chris and Roberts, Malcom and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Seddon, Jon and Senan, Retish and Wyser, Klaus},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {article is available online,atmospheric circulation,climate change,europe,model evaluation,summer warming,supplementary material for this,trends},
number = {8},
pages = {084038},
title = {{Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation}},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032321,
abstract = {Abstract More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past, present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) to assess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5. While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperature between 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperature increase, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperature record of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surface temperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models and high-resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long-standing biases. Some improvements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions, and root-mean-square errors for selected fields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread and higher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6 ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possible reason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in stronger shortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions.},
annote = {e2019JD032321 2019JD032321},
author = {Bock, L and Lauer, A and Schlund, M and Barreiro, M and Bellouin, N and Jones, C and Meehl, G A and Predoi, V and Roberts, M J and Eyring, V},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD032321},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CMIP,climate model,evaluation},
number = {21},
pages = {e2019JD032321},
title = {{Quantifying Progress Across Different CMIP Phases With the ESMValTool}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD032321},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Bodas-Salcedo2019,
abstract = {Abstract We analyze the atmospheric processes that explain the large changes in radiative feedbacks between the two latest climate configurations of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental model. We use a large set of atmosphere-only climate change simulations (amip and amip-p4K) to separate the contributions to the differences in feedback parameter from all the atmospheric model developments between the two latest model configurations. We show that the differences are mostly driven by changes in the shortwave cloud radiative feedback in the midlatitudes, mainly over the Southern Ocean. Two new schemes explain most of the differences: the introduction of a new aerosol scheme and the development of a new mixed-phase cloud scheme. Both schemes reduce the strength of the preexisting shortwave negative cloud feedback in the midlatitudes. The new aerosol scheme dampens a strong aerosol-cloud interaction, and it also suppresses a negative clear-sky shortwave feedback. The mixed-phase scheme increases the amount of cloud liquid water path (LWP) in the present day and reduces the increase in LWP with warming. Both changes contribute to reducing the negative radiative feedback of the increase of LWP in the warmer climate. The mixed-phase scheme also enhances a strong, preexisting, positive cloud fraction feedback. We assess the realism of the changes by comparing present-day simulations against observations and discuss avenues that could help constrain the relevant processes.},
author = {Bodas-Salcedo, A and Mulcahy, J P and Andrews, T and Williams, K D and Ringer, M A and Field, P R and Elsaesser, G S},
doi = {10.1029/2019MS001688},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {HadGEM3,cloud feedbacks},
number = {6},
pages = {1735--1758},
title = {{Strong Dependence of Atmospheric Feedbacks on Mixed-Phase Microphysics and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in HadGEM3}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001688},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bodeker2016,
abstract = {The three main objectives of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) are to provide long-term high-quality climate records of vertical profiles of selected essential climate variables (ECVs), to constrain and calibrate data from more spatially comprehensive global networks, and to provide measurements for process studies that permit an in-depth understanding of the properties of the atmospheric column. In the five years since the first GRUAN implementation and coordination meeting and the printing of an article (Seidel et al.) in this publication, GRUAN has matured to become a functioning network that provides reference-quality observations to a community of users.This article describes the achievements within GRUAN over the past five years toward making reference-quality observations of upper-air ECVs. Milestones in the evolution of GRUAN are emphasized, including development of rigorous criteria for site certification and assessment, the formal certification of the first GRUAN sites, salient aspects of the GRUAN manual and guide to operations, public availability of GRUAN's first data product, outcomes of a network expansion workshop, and key results of scientific studies designed to provide a sound scientific foundation for GRUAN operations.Two defining attributes of GRUAN are 1) that every measurement is accompanied by a traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty and 2) that data quality and continuity are maximized because network changes are minimized and managed. This article summarizes how these imperatives are being achieved for existing and planned data products and provides an outlook for the future, including expected new data streams, network expansion, and critical needs for the ongoing success of GRUAN.},
author = {Bodeker, G E and Bojinski, S and Cimini, D and Dirksen, R J and Haeffelin, M and Hannigan, J W and Hurst, D F and Leblanc, T and Madonna, F and Maturilli, M and Mikalsen, A C and Philipona, R and Reale, T and Seidel, D J and Tan, D G H and Thorne, P W and V{\"{o}}mel, H and Wang, J},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00072.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {123--135},
title = {{Reference Upper-Air Observations for Climate: From Concept to Reality}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00072.1},
volume = {97},
year = {2016}
}
@misc{Boden2017,
address = {Oak Ridge, TN, USA},
author = {Boden, T. and Marland, G. and Andres, R. J.},
doi = {10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2017},
publisher = {Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)},
title = {{Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (1751 – 2014) (V. 2017)}},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Boer2016,
abstract = {The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.},
author = {Boer, George J and Smith, Douglas M and Cassou, Christophe and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco and Danabasoglu, Gokhan and Kirtman, Ben and Kushnir, Yochanan and Kimoto, Masahide and Meehl, Gerald A and Msadek, Rym and Mueller, Wolfgang A and Taylor, Karl E. and Zwiers, Francis and Rixen, Michel and Ruprich-Robert, Yohan and Eade, Rosie},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016},
isbn = {1991-9603},
issn = {19919603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {10},
pages = {3751--3777},
title = {{The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6}},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bohr2017,
author = {Bohr, Jeremiah},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-1934-z},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {may},
number = {1-2},
pages = {271--285},
title = {{Is it hot in here or is it just me? Temperature anomalies and political polarization over global warming in the American public}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-1934-z},
volume = {142},
year = {2017}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00047.1,
abstract = { Climate research, monitoring, prediction, and related services rely on accurate observations of the atmosphere, land, and ocean, adequately sampled globally and over sufficiently long time periods. The Global Climate Observing System, set up under the auspices of United Nations organizations and the International Council for Science to help ensure the availability of systematic observations of climate, developed the concept of essential climate variables (ECVs). ECV data records are intended to provide reliable, traceable, observation-based evidence for a range of applications, including monitoring, mitigating, adapting to, and attributing climate changes, as well as the empirical basis required to understand past, current, and possible future climate variability. The ECV concept has been broadly adopted worldwide as the guiding basis for observing climate, including by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), WMO, and space agencies operating Earth observation satellites. This paper describes the rationale for these ECVs and their current selection, based on the principles of feasibility, relevance, and cost effectiveness. It also provides a view of how the ECV concept could evolve as a guide for rational and evidence-based monitoring of climate and environment. Selected examples are discussed to highlight the benefits, limitations, and future evolution of this approach. The article is intended to assist program managers to set priorities for climate observation, dataset generation and related research: for instance, within the emerging Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). It also helps the observation community and individual researchers to contribute to systematic climate observation, by promoting understanding of ECV choices and the opportunities to influence their evolution. },
author = {Bojinski, Stephan and Verstraete, Michel and Peterson, Thomas C and Richter, Carolin and Simmons, Adrian and Zemp, Michael},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00047.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {9},
pages = {1431--1443},
title = {{The Concept of Essential Climate Variables in Support of Climate Research, Applications, and Policy}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00047.1},
volume = {95},
year = {2014}
}
@article{doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1970.tb00508.x,
abstract = {Six years of measurements (1963–1968) of carbon dioxide in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere are presented. The data reveal an average annual increase of the CO2-content of 0.7 ± 0.1 ppm/year, while during this time the annual industrial output has increased from about 1.9 ppm to 2.3 ppm/year. Thus the increase in the atmosphere is about 1/3 of the total output. Considerations of the possible increase of vegetative assimilation due to the higher CO2-content of the atmosphere reveals that this is at most 1/4 of the output, probably considerably less. The net transfer to the oceans thus is at least equal to 1/2 of the industrial output. The transfer rate across the sea surface seems effective enough not to represent an appreciable resistance and the decisive factor for determining this transfer therefore is the ocean circulation or turn over rate. The figures quoted indicate that 20–25{\%} of the world oceans must have been available during the time of rapid increase of the industrial output of CO2 (the last 30–50 years) to explain the rather large amount that has been withdrawn from the atmosphere. Still a continued increase of the fossil fuel combustion as forecast by OECD implies that the CO2-content of the atmosphere at the end of the century will be between 370 ppm and 395 ppm as compared with 320 ppm, the average value for 1968. The amplitude of the seasonal variation is found to be about 6.5 ppm at 2 km and 3.5 ppm in the uppermost part of the troposphere. The phase shift of the seasonal variation between these two levels is 25–30 days. On the basis of these data a vertical eddy diffusivity K = 2{\textperiodcentered}105 cm2 sec−1 is derived. The amplitude of the seasonal variation in the lower stratosphere, 11–12 km, is less than 1 ppm and the phase is delayed at least 1 1/2 month as compared with the upper troposphere.},
author = {Bolin, Bert and Bischof, Walter},
doi = {10.1111/j.2153-3490.1970.tb00508.x},
issn = {00402826},
journal = {Tellus},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {431--442},
title = {{Variations of the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/tellusa.v22i4.10236 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1970.tb00508.x http://tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/10236},
volume = {22},
year = {1970}
}
@article{Bony2015,
author = {Bony, Sandrine and Stevens, Bjorn and Frierson, Dargan M. W. and Jakob, Christian and Kageyama, Masa and Pincus, Robert and Shepherd, Theodore G. and Sherwood, Steven C. and Siebesma, A. Pier and Sobel, Adam H. and Watanabe, Masahiro and Webb, Mark J.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2398},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {261--268},
title = {{Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2398},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Boo2011,
author = {Boo, Kyung-On and Martin, Gill and Sellar, Alistair and Senior, Catherine and Byun, Young-Hwa},
doi = {10.1029/2010JD014737},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jan},
number = {D1},
pages = {D01109},
title = {{Evaluating the East Asian monsoon simulation in climate models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2010JD014737},
volume = {116},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Booth2017,
abstract = {Uncertainty in the behavior of the carbon cycle is important in driving the range in future projected climate change. Previous comparisons of model responses with historical CO 2 observations have suggested a strong constraint on simulated projections that could narrow the range considered plausible. This study uses a new 57-member perturbed parameter ensemble of variants of an Earth system model for three future scenarios, which 1) explores a wider range of potential climate responses than before and 2) includes the impact of past uncertainty in carbon emissions on simulated trends. These two factors represent a more complete exploration of uncertainty, although they lead to a weaker constraint on the range of future CO 2 concentrations as compared to earlier studies. Nevertheless, CO 2 observations are shown to be effective at narrowing the distribution, excluding 30 of 57 simulations as inconsistent with historical CO 2 changes. The perturbed model variants excluded are mainly at the high end of the future projected CO 2 changes, with only 8 of the 26 variants projecting RCP8.5 2100 concentrations in excess of 1100 ppm retained. Interestingly, a minority of the high-end variants were able to capture historical CO 2 trends, with the large-magnitude response emerging later in the century (owing to high climate sensitivities, strong carbon feedbacks, or both). Comparison with observed CO 2 is effective at narrowing both the range and distribution of projections out to the mid-twenty-first century for all scenarios and to 2100 for a scenario with low emissions.},
author = {Booth, Ben B. B. and Harris, Glen R. and Murphy, James M. and House, Jo I. and Jones, Chris D. and Sexton, David and Sitch, Stephen},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-16-0178.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {3039--3053},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Narrowing the Range of Future Climate Projections Using Historical Observations of Atmospheric CO2}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{asr-13-151-2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Hourly and monthly mean wind speed and wind speed variability from the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 is analysed in the range of 10 to 116 m height above ground. Comparisons with independent wind mast measurements performed between 2001 and 2010 over Northern Germany over land (Lindenberg), the North Sea (FINO platforms), and The Netherlands (Cabauw) show that the COSMO-REA6 wind fields are realistic and at least as close to the measurements as the global atmospheric reanalyses (ERA20C and ERA-Interim) on the monthly scale. The median wind profiles of the reanalyses were found to be consistent with the observed ones. The mean annual cycles of variability are generally reproduced from 10 up to 116 m in the investigated reanalyses. The mean diurnal cycle is represented qualitatively near the ground by the reanalyses. At 100 m height, there is little diurnal cycle left in the global and regional reanalyses, though a diurnal cycle is still present in the measurements over land. Correlation coefficients between monthly means of the observations and the reanalyses range between 0.92 at 10 m and 0.99 at 116 m, with a slightly higher correlation of the regional reanalyses at Lindenberg at 10 m height which is significant only at a lower than 95 {\%} significance level. Correlations of daily means tend to be higher for the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6. Increasing temporal resolution further, reduces this advantage of the regional reanalysis. At around 100 m, ERA-Interim yields a higher correlation at Lindenberg and Cabauw, whereas COSMO-REA6 yields a higher correlation at FINO1 and FINO2.},
author = {Borsche, Michael and Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea K and Kaspar, Frank},
doi = {10.5194/asr-13-151-2016},
issn = {1992-0636},
journal = {Advances in Science and Research},
month = {nov},
pages = {151--161},
title = {{Wind speed variability between 10 and 116 m height from the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 compared to wind mast measurements over Northern Germany and the Netherlands}},
url = {https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/13/151/2016/},
volume = {13},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Boucher2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Boucher, O and Randall, D and Artaxo, P and Bretherton, C and Feingold, G and Forster, P and Kerminen, V.-M. and Kondo, Y and Liao, H and Lohmann, U and Rasch, P and Satheesh, S K and Sherwood, S and Stevens, B and Zhang, X Y},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {7},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.016},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {571--658},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Clouds and Aerosols}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Boucher2020,
abstract = {This study presents the global climate model IPSL-CM6A-LR developed at Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) to study natural climate variability and climate response to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This article describes the different model components, their coupling, and the simulated climate in comparison to previous model versions. We focus here on the representation of the physical climate along with the main characteristics of the global carbon cycle. The model's climatology, as assessed from a range of metrics (related in particular to radiation, temperature, precipitation, and wind), is strongly improved in comparison to previous model versions. Although they are reduced, a number of known biases and shortcomings (e.g., double Intertropical Convergence Zone [ITCZ], frequency of midlatitude wintertime blockings, and El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation [ENSO] dynamics) persist. The equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response have both increased from the previous climate model IPSL-CM5A-LR used in CMIP5. A large ensemble of more than 30 members for the historical period (1850–2018) and a smaller ensemble for a range of emissions scenarios (until 2100 and 2300) are also presented and discussed.},
author = {Boucher, Olivier and Servonnat, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Albright, Anna Lea and Aumont, Olivier and Balkanski, Yves and Bastrikov, Vladislav and Bekki, Slimane and Bonnet, R{\'{e}}my and Bony, Sandrine and Bopp, Laurent and Braconnot, Pascale and Brockmann, Patrick and Cadule, Patricia and Caubel, Arnaud and Cheruy, Frederique and Codron, Francis and Cozic, Anne and Cugnet, David and D'Andrea, Fabio and Davini, Paolo and de Lavergne, Casimir and Denvil, S{\'{e}}bastien and Deshayes, Julie and Devilliers, Marion and Ducharne, Agnes and Dufresne, Jean Louis and Dupont, Eliott and {\'{E}}th{\'{e}}, Christian and Fairhead, Laurent and Falletti, Lola and Flavoni, Simona and Foujols, Marie Alice and Gardoll, S{\'{e}}bastien and Gastineau, Guillaume and Ghattas, Josefine and Grandpeix, Jean Yves and Guenet, Bertrand and {Guez, Lionel}, E. and Guilyardi, Eric and Guimberteau, Matthieu and Hauglustaine, Didier and Hourdin, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Idelkadi, Abderrahmane and Joussaume, Sylvie and Kageyama, Masa and Khodri, Myriam and Krinner, Gerhard and Lebas, Nicolas and Levavasseur, Guillaume and L{\'{e}}vy, Claire and Li, Laurent and Lott, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Lurton, Thibaut and Luyssaert, Sebastiaan and Madec, Gurvan and Madeleine, Jean Baptiste and Maignan, Fabienne and Marchand, Marion and Marti, Olivier and Mellul, Lidia and Meurdesoif, Yann and Mignot, Juliette and Musat, Ionela and Ottl{\'{e}}, Catherine and Peylin, Philippe and Planton, Yann and Polcher, Jan and Rio, Catherine and Rochetin, Nicolas and Rousset, Cl{\'{e}}ment and Sepulchre, Pierre and Sima, Adriana and Swingedouw, Didier and Thi{\'{e}}blemont, R{\'{e}}mi and Traore, Abdoul Khadre and Vancoppenolle, Martin and Vial, Jessica and Vialard, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Viovy, Nicolas and Vuichard, Nicolas},
doi = {10.1029/2019MS002010},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {CMIP6,IPSL-CM6A-LR,climate metrics,climate model,climate sensitivity},
number = {7},
title = {{Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Climate Model}},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EA000428,
abstract = {Abstract Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) is a multinational program initiated in 1997 in the tropical Atlantic to improve our understanding and ability to predict ocean-atmosphere variability. PIRATA consists of a network of moored buoys providing meteorological and oceanographic data transmitted in real time to address fundamental scientific questions as well as societal needs. The network is maintained through dedicated yearly cruises, which allow for extensive complementary shipboard measurements and provide platforms for deployment of other components of the Tropical Atlantic Observing System. This paper describes network enhancements, scientific accomplishments and successes obtained from the last 10 years of observations, and additional results enabled by cooperation with other national and international programs. Capacity building activities and the role of PIRATA in a future Tropical Atlantic Observing System that is presently being optimized are also described.},
author = {Bourl{\`{e}}s, Bernard and Araujo, Moacyr and McPhaden, Michael J and Brandt, Peter and Foltz, Gregory R and Lumpkin, Rick and Giordani, Herv{\'{e}} and Hernandez, Fabrice and Lef{\`{e}}vre, Nathalie and Nobre, Paulo and Campos, Edmo and Saravanan, Ramalingam and Trotte-Duh{\`{a}}, Janice and Dengler, Marcus and Hahn, Johannes and Hummels, Rebecca and L{\"{u}}bbecke, Joke F and Rouault, Mathieu and Cotrim, Leticia and Sutton, Adrienne and Jochum, Markus and Perez, Renellys C},
doi = {10.1029/2018EA000428},
journal = {Earth and Space Science},
number = {4},
pages = {577--616},
title = {{PIRATA: A Sustained Observing System for Tropical Atlantic Climate Research and Forecasting}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018EA000428},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bowen2015a,
author = {Bowen, Gabriel J. and Maibauer, Bianca J. and Kraus, Mary J. and R{\"{o}}hl, Ursula and Westerhold, Thomas and Steimke, Amy and Gingerich, Philip D. and Wing, Scott L. and Clyde, William C.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2316},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {44--47},
title = {{Two massive, rapid releases of carbon during the onset of the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2316},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Boyle1987a,
author = {Boyle, Edward A. and Keigwin, Lloyd},
doi = {10.1038/330035a0},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {nov},
number = {6143},
pages = {35--40},
title = {{North Atlantic thermohaline circulation during the past 20,000 years linked to high-latitude surface temperature}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/330035a0},
volume = {330},
year = {1987}
}
@article{Bronnimann2019a,
abstract = {Instrumental meteorological measurements from periods prior to the start of national weather services are designated “early instrumental data.” They have played an important role in climate research as they allow daily to decadal variability and changes of temperature, pressure, and precipitation, including extremes, to be addressed. Early instrumental data can also help place twenty-first century climatic changes into a historical context such as defining preindustrial climate and its variability. Until recently, the focus was on long, high-quality series, while the large number of shorter series (which together also cover long periods) received little to no attention. The shift in climate and climate impact research from mean climate characteristics toward weather variability and extremes, as well as the success of historical reanalyses that make use of short series, generates a need for locating and exploring further early instrumental measurements. However, information on early instrumental series has never been electronically compiled on a global scale. Here we attempt a worldwide compilation of metadata on early instrumental meteorological records prior to 1850 (1890 for Africa and the Arctic). Our global inventory comprises information on several thousand records, about half of which have not yet been digitized (not even as monthly means), and only approximately 20{\%} of which have made it to global repositories. The inventory will help to prioritize data rescue efforts and can be used to analyze the potential feasibility of historical weather data products. The inventory will be maintained as a living document and is a first, critical, step toward the systematic rescue and reevaluation of these highly valuable early records. Additions to the inventory are welcome.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0040.1},
author = {Br{\"{o}}nnimann, Stefan and Allan, Rob and Ashcroft, Linden and Baer, Saba and Barriendos, Mariano and Br{\'{a}}zdil, Rudolf and Brugnara, Yuri and Brunet, Manola and Brunetti, Michele and Chimani, Barbara and Cornes, Richard and Dom{\'{i}}nguez-Castro, Fernando and Filipiak, Janusz and Founda, Dimitra and Herrera, Ricardo Garc{\'{i}}a and Gergis, Joelle and Grab, Stefan and Hannak, Lisa and Huhtamaa, Heli and Jacobsen, Kim S and Jones, Phil and Jourdain, Sylvie and Kiss, Andrea and Lin, Kuanhui Elaine and Lorrey, Andrew and Lundstad, Elin and Luterbacher, J{\"{u}}rg and Mauelshagen, Franz and Maugeri, Maurizio and Maughan, Nicolas and Moberg, Anders and Neukom, Raphael and Nicholson, Sharon and Noone, Simon and Nordli, {\O}yvind and {\'{O}}lafsd{\'{o}}ttir, Krist{\'{i}}n Bj{\"{o}}rg and Pearce, Petra R and Pfister, Lucas and Pribyl, Kathleen and Przybylak, Rajmund and Pudmenzky, Christa and Rasol, Dubravka and Reichenbach, Delia and Řezn{\'{i}}{\v{c}}kov{\'{a}}, Ladislava and Rodrigo, Fernando S and Rohr, Christian and Skrynyk, Oleg and Slonosky, Victoria and Thorne, Peter and Valente, Maria Ant{\'{o}}nia and Vaquero, Jos{\'{e}} M and Westcottt, Nancy E and Williamson, Fiona and Wyszy{\'{n}}ski, Przemys{\l}aw},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0040.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {ES389--ES413},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Unlocking Pre-1850 Instrumental Meteorological Records: A Global Inventory}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0040.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/12/bams-d-19-0040.1.xml},
volume = {100},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bronnimann2019,
author = {Br{\"{o}}nnimann, Stefan and Franke, J{\"{o}}rg and Nussbaumer, Samuel U. and Zumb{\"{u}}hl, Heinz J. and Steiner, Daniel and Trachsel, Mathias and Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Schurer, Andrew and Worni, Matthias and Malik, Abdul and Fl{\"{u}}ckiger, Julian and Raible, Christoph C.},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0402-y},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {650--656},
title = {{Last phase of the Little Ice Age forced by volcanic eruptions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0402-y},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@book{Bruckner2018,
address = {Vienna and Olm{\"{u}}tz},
author = {Br{\"{u}}ckner, Eduard},
pages = {324},
publisher = {Eduard H{\"{o}}lzel},
title = {{Klima-Schwankungen Seit 1700, Nebst Bemerkungen {\"{u}}ber Die Klimaschwankungen Der Diluvialzeit}},
year = {1890}
}
@article{BraZdil2005,
abstract = {This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the "Medieval Warm Period" and the "Little Ice Age", synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts. {\textcopyright} Springer 2005.},
author = {Br{\'{a}}zdil, Rudolf and Pfister, Christian and Wanner, Heinz and Storch, Hans Von and Luterbacher, J{\"{u}}rg},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-005-5924-1},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {363--430},
title = {{Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-005-5924-1},
volume = {70},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Bracegirdle2013,
author = {Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Stephenson, David B.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00537.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {669--678},
title = {{On the Robustness of Emergent Constraints Used in Multimodel Climate Change Projections of Arctic Warming}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00537.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@book{Bradley2015a,
abstract = {Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing Climates of the Quaternary, Third Edition, provides a thorough overview of the methods of paleoclimatic reconstruction and of the historical changes in climate during the past three million years. This thoroughly updated and revised edition systematically examines each type of proxy and elucidates the major attributes and the limitations of each. Paleoclimatology, Third Edition provides necessary context for those interested in understanding climate changes at present and how current trends in climate compare with changes that have occurred in the past. The text is richly illustrated and includes an extensive bibliography for further research. {\textcopyright} 2015 Raymond S. Bradley Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.},
address = {San Diego, CA, USA},
author = {Bradley, Raymond S.},
doi = {10.1016/C2009-0-18310-1},
isbn = {9780123869135},
issn = {0096-3941},
pages = {675},
pmid = {3176},
publisher = {Academic Press},
title = {{Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing Climates of the Quaternary (Third Edition)}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/C20090183101},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Brasseur2016,
abstract = {This perspective paper reviews progress made in the last decades to enhance the communication and use of climate information relevant to the political and economic decision process. It focuses, specifically, on the creation and development of climate services, and highlights a number of difficulties that have limited the success of these services. Among them are the insufficient awareness by societal actors of their vulnerability to climate change, the lack of relevant products and services offered by the scientific community, the inappropriate format in which the information is provided, and the inadequate business model adopted by climate services. The authors suggest that, to be effective, centers should host within the same center a diversity of staff including experts in climate science, specialists in impact, adaptation, and vulnerability, representatives of the corporate world, agents of the public service as well as social managers and communication specialists. The role and importance of environmental engineering is emphasized.},
author = {Brasseur, Guy P. and Gallardo, Laura},
doi = {10.1002/2015EF000338},
isbn = {2328-4277},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {Climate Services,Evaluation,International collaboration},
number = {3},
pages = {79--89},
title = {{Climate services: Lessons learned and future prospects}},
volume = {4},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Braun2019,
author = {Braun, Matthias H. and Malz, Philipp and Sommer, Christian and Far{\'{i}}as-Barahona, David and Sauter, Tobias and Casassa, Gino and Soruco, Alvaro and Skvarca, Pedro and Seehaus, Thorsten C.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0375-7},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {130--136},
title = {{Constraining glacier elevation and mass changes in South America}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0375-7},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Breakey2016,
abstract = {The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims to tackle the consequences of 'dangerous' climate impacts. 1 The Convention entered into effect in 1994, influenced by the dominant discourses of what might be termed 'the technological fix'and neo–liberalism, epitomized by market-based approaches, including the 'flexible mechanisms' of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol (KP). These mechanisms consisted of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), joint implementation (JI) and international emissions {\ldots}},
address = {London, UK},
annote = {Times cited: 13},
author = {Breakey, Hugh and Cadman, Tim and Sampford, Charles},
booktitle = {Governing the Climate Change Regime: Institutional Integrity and Integrity Systems},
doi = {10.4324/9781315442365},
editor = {Cadman, Tim and Maguire, Rowena and Sampford, Charles},
isbn = {9781315442365},
pages = {34--62},
publisher = {Routledge},
title = {{Governance values and institutional integrity}},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Broecker1975,
author = {Broecker, W. S.},
doi = {10.1126/science.189.4201.460},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {4201},
pages = {460--463},
title = {{Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.189.4201.460},
volume = {189},
year = {1975}
}
@article{Broecker1985,
abstract = {The climate record obtained from two long Greenland ice cores reveals several brief climate oscillations during glacial time. The most recent of these oscillations, also found in continental pollen records, has greatest impact in the area under the meteorological influence of the northern Atlantic, but none in the United States. This suggests that these oscillations are caused by fluctuations in the formation rate of deep water in the northern Atlantic. As the present production of deep water in this area is driven by an excess of evaporation over precipitation and continental runoff, atmospheric water transport may be an important element in climate change. Changes in the production rate of deep water in this sector of the ocean may push the climate system from one quasi-stable mode of operation to another.},
author = {Broecker, Wallace S. and Peteet, Dorothy M. and Rind, David},
doi = {10.1038/315021a0},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
month = {may},
number = {6014},
pages = {21--26},
title = {{Does the ocean–atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/315021a0 http://www.nature.com/articles/315021a0},
volume = {315},
year = {1985}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2005JD006548,
abstract = {The historical surface temperature data set HadCRUT provides a record of surface temperature trends and variability since 1850. A new version of this data set, HadCRUT3, has been produced, benefiting from recent improvements to the sea surface temperature data set which forms its marine component, and from improvements to the station records which provide the land data. A comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates has been derived to accompany the data: Estimates of measurement and sampling error, temperature bias effects, and the effect of limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been made. Since the mid twentieth century the uncertainties in global and hemispheric mean temperatures are small, and the temperature increase greatly exceeds its uncertainty. In earlier periods the uncertainties are larger, but the temperature increase over the twentieth century is still significantly larger than its uncertainty.},
author = {Brohan, P and Kennedy, J J and Harris, I and Tett, S F B and Jones, P D},
doi = {10.1029/2005JD006548},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {D12},
pages = {D12106},
title = {{Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2005JD006548},
volume = {111},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Brown2012,
author = {Brown, Andrew and Milton, Sean and Cullen, Mike and Golding, Brian and Mitchell, John and Shelly, Ann},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00018.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1865--1877},
title = {{Unified Modeling and Prediction of Weather and Climate: A 25-Year Journey}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00018.1},
volume = {93},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Brulle2012,
author = {Brulle, Robert J. and Carmichael, Jason and Jenkins, J. Craig},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-012-0403-y},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {sep},
number = {2},
pages = {169--188},
title = {{Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002–2010}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-012-0403-y},
volume = {114},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Brulle2019,
abstract = {The climate change countermovement (CCCM) in the United States has exerted an important influence on delaying efforts to address climate change. Analyses of this countermovement have primarily focused on the role of conservative think tanks. Expanding this research, this article initiates an examination of the structure of key political coalitions that worked to oppose climate action. In conjunction with their allied trade associations, these coalitions have served as a central coordination mechanism in efforts opposed to mandatory limits on carbon emissions. These coalitions pool resources from a large number of corporations and execute sophisticated political and cultural campaigns designed to oppose efforts to address climate change. Through an analysis of twelve prominent CCCM coalitions from 1989 to 2015, I show that over 2,000 organizations were members of these coalitions and that a core of 179 organizations belonged to multiple coalitions. Organizations from the coal and electrical utility sectors were the most numerous and influential organizations in these coalitions. The article concludes with suggestions for further research to expand understanding of complex social movements and countermovements.},
author = {Brulle, Robert J.},
doi = {10.1111/soin.12333},
issn = {0038-0245},
journal = {Sociological Inquiry},
month = {oct},
pages = {soin.12333},
title = {{Networks of Opposition: A Structural Analysis of U.S. Climate Change Countermovement Coalitions 1989–2015}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/soin.12333},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bryan1975,
abstract = {Abstract A numerical experiment has been carried out with a joint model of the ocean and atmosphere. The 12-level model of the world ocean predicts the fields of horizontal velocity, temperature and salinity. It includes the effects of bottom topography, and a simplified model of polar pack ice. The numerical experiment allows the joint ocean-atmosphere model to seek an equilibrium over the equivalent of 270 years in the ocean time scale. The initial state of the ocean is uniform stratification and complete rest. Although the final temperature distribution is more zonal than it should be, the major western boundary currents and the equatorial undercurrent are successfully predicted. The calculated salinity field has the correct observed range, and correctly indicates that the Atlantic is saltier than the Pacific. It also predicts that the surface waters of the North Pacific are less saline than the surface waters of the South Pacific in accordance with observations. The pack ice model predicts heavy ice i...},
author = {Bryan, Kirk and Manabe, Syukuro and Pacanowski, Ronald C.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0485(1975)005<0030:AGOACM>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0022-3670},
journal = {Journal of Physical Oceanography},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {30--46},
title = {{A Global Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model. Part II. The Oceanic Circulation}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0485{\%}281975{\%}29005{\%}3C0030{\%}3AAGOACM{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {5},
year = {1975}
}
@incollection{Bryson1970,
address = {Dordrecht, The Netherlands},
author = {Bryson, Reid A. and Wendland, Wayne M.},
booktitle = {Global Effects of Environmental Pollution: A Symposium Organized by the American Association for the Advancement of Science Held in Dallas, Texas, December 1968},
doi = {10.1007/978-94-010-3290-2_14},
editor = {Singer, S. Fred},
isbn = {978-94-010-3290-2},
pages = {139--147},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Climatic effects of atmospheric pollution}},
year = {1970}
}
@article{Budescu2009,
author = {Budescu, David V. and Broomell, Stephen and Por, Han-Hui},
doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02284.x},
issn = {0956-7976},
journal = {Psychological Science},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {299--308},
title = {{Improving Communication of Uncertainty in the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02284.x},
volume = {20},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Budescu2014,
author = {Budescu, David V. and Por, Han-Hui and Broomell, Stephen B. and Smithson, Michael},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2194},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {508--512},
title = {{The interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2194},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Budescu2012,
author = {Budescu, David V. and Por, Han-Hui and Broomell, Stephen B.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0330-3},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {2},
pages = {181--200},
title = {{Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0330-3},
volume = {113},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Budyko1969,
abstract = {It follows from the analysis of observation data that the secular variation of the mean temperature of the Earth can be explained by the variation of short-wave radiation, arriving at the surface of the Earth. In connection with this, the influence of long-term changes of radiation, caused by variations of atmospheric transparency on the thermal regime is being studied. Taking into account the influence of changes of planetary albedo of the Earth under the development of glaciations on the thermal regime, it is found that comparatively small variations of atmospheric transparency could be sufficient for the development of quaternary glaciations.},
author = {Budyko, M. I.},
doi = {10.3402/tellusa.v21i5.10109},
issn = {0040-2826},
journal = {Tellus},
month = {jan},
number = {5},
pages = {611--619},
title = {{The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/tellusa.v21i5.10109},
volume = {21},
year = {1969}
}
@article{tc-14-2387-2020,
abstract = {Abstract. The observational uncertainty in sea ice concentration estimates from remotely sensed passive microwave brightness temperatures is a challenge for reliable climate model evaluation and initialization. To address this challenge, we introduce a new tool: the Arctic Ocean Observation Operator (ARC3O). ARC3O allows us to simulate brightness temperatures at 6.9 GHz at vertical polarization from standard output of an Earth System Model. To evaluate sources of uncertainties when applying ARC3O, we compare brightness temperatures simulated by applying ARC3O on three assimilation runs of the MPI Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), assimilated with three different sea ice concentration products, with brightness temperatures measured by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) from space. We find that the simulated and observed brightness temperatures differ up to 10 K in the period between October and June, depending on the region and the assimilation run. We show that these discrepancies between simulated and observed brightness temperature can be attributed mainly to the underlying observational uncertainty in sea ice concentration and, to a lesser extent, to the data assimilation process, rather than to biases in ARC3O itself. In summer, the discrepancies between simulated and observed brightness temperatures are larger than in winter and locally reach up to 20 K. This is caused by the very large observational uncertainty in summer sea ice concentration and the melt pond parametrization in MPI-ESM, which is not necessarily realistic. ARC3O is therefore capable of realistically translating the simulated Arctic Ocean climate state into one observable quantity for a more comprehensive climate model evaluation and initialization.},
author = {Burgard, Clara and Notz, Dirk and Pedersen, Leif T and Tonboe, Rasmus T},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-2387-2020},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {2387--2407},
title = {{The Arctic Ocean Observation Operator for 6.9 GHz (ARC3O) – Part 2: Development and evaluation}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/2387/2020/},
volume = {14},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Burkett2014,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Burkett, V.R. and Suarez, A.G. and Bindi, M. and Conde, C. and Mukerji, R. and Prather, M.J. and {St. Clair}, A.L. and Yohe, G.W.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415379.006},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Dokken, D.J. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058071},
pages = {169--194},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Point of departure}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Burn2015a,
abstract = {Hurricanes are a persistent socio-economic hazard for countries situated in and around the Main Development Region (MDR) of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Climate-model simulations have attributed their interdecadal variability to changes in solar and volcanic activity, Saharan dust flux, anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and heat transport within the global ocean conveyor belt. However, the attribution of hurricane activity to specific forcing factors is hampered by the short observational record of Atlantic storms. Here, we present the Extended Hurricane Activity (EHA) index, the first empirical reconstruction of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the last millennium, derived from a high-resolution lake sediment geochemical record from Jamaica. The EHA correlates significantly with decadal changes in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs; r = 0.68; 1854–2008), the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE; r = 0.90; 1851–2010) and two annually-resolved coral-based SST reconstructions (1773–2008) from within the MDR. Our results corroborate evidence for the increasing trend of hurricane activity during the Industrial Era; however, we show that contemporary activity has not exceeded the range of natural climate variability exhibited during the last millennium.},
author = {Burn, Michael J and Palmer, Suzanne E},
doi = {10.1038/srep12838},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {12838},
title = {{Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12838},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Burrows2018,
author = {Burrows, Susannah M. and Dasgupta, Aritra and Reehl, Sarah and Bramer, Lisa and Ma, Po-Lun and Rasch, Philip J. and Qian, Yun},
doi = {10.1007/s00376-018-7300-x},
issn = {0256-1530},
journal = {Advances in Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1101--1113},
title = {{Characterizing the Relative Importance Assigned to Physical Variables by Climate Scientists when Assessing Atmospheric Climate Model Fidelity}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00376-018-7300-x},
volume = {35},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Burton2013,
author = {Burton, M. R. and Sawyer, G. M. and Granieri, D.},
doi = {10.2138/rmg.2013.75.11},
issn = {1529-6466},
journal = {Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {323--354},
title = {{Deep Carbon Emissions from Volcanoes}},
url = {https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/rimg/article/75/1/323-354/140959},
volume = {75},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Butler2018,
abstract = {Continuation of historical trends in crop yield are critical to meeting the demands of a growing and more affluent world population. Climate change may compromise our ability to meet these demands, but estimates vary widely, highlighting the importance of understanding historical interactions between yield and climate trends. The relationship between temperature and yield is nuanced, involving differential yield outcomes to warm (9 − 29◦C) and hot ({\textgreater} 29◦C) temperatures and differing sensitivity across growth phases. Here, we use a crop model that resolves temperature responses according to magnitude and growth phase to show that US maize has benefited from weather shifts since 1981. Improvements are related to lengthening of the growing season and cooling of the hottest temperatures. Furthermore, current farmer cropping schedules are more beneficial in the climate of the last decade than they would have been in earlier decades, indicating statistically significant adaptation to a changing climate of 13 kg{\textperiodcentered}ha−1{\textperiodcentered}decade−1. All together, the better weather experienced by US maize accounts for 28{\%} of the yield trends since 1981. Sustaining positive trends in yield depends on whether improvements in agricultural climate continue and the degree to which farmers adapt to future climates.},
author = {Butler, Ethan E. and Mueller, Nathaniel D. and Huybers, Peter},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1808035115},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Adaptation,Agriculture,Climate,Maize,Trends},
number = {47},
pages = {11935--11940},
pmid = {30397143},
title = {{Peculiarly pleasant weather for US maize}},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Cain2019,
abstract = {Anthropogenic global warming at a given time is largely determined by the cumulative total emissions (or stock) of long-lived climate pollutants (LLCPs), predominantly carbon dioxide (CO2), and the emission rates (or flow) of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) immediately prior to that time. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), reporting of greenhouse gas emissions has been standardised in terms of CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) emissions using Global Warming Potentials (GWP) over 100-years, but the conventional usage of GWP does not adequately capture the different behaviours of LLCPs and SLCPs, or their impact on global mean surface temperature. An alternative usage of GWP, denoted GWP*, overcomes this problem by equating an increase in the emission rate of an SLCP with a one-off “pulse” emission of CO2. We show that this approach, while an improvement on the conventional usage, slightly underestimates the impact of recent increases in SLCP emissions on current rates of warming because the climate does not respond instantaneously to radiative forcing. We resolve this with a modification of the GWP* definition, which incorporates a term for each of the short-timescale and long-timescale climate responses to changes in radiative forcing. The amended version allows “CO2-warming-equivalent” (CO2-we) emissions to be calculated directly from reported emissions. Thus SLCPs can be incorporated directly into carbon budgets consistent with long-term temperature goals, because every unit of CO2-we emitted generates approximately the same amount of warming, whether it is emitted as a SLCP or a LLCP. This is not the case for conventionally derived CO2-e.},
author = {Cain, Michelle and Lynch, John and Allen, Myles R. and Fuglestvedt, Jan S. and Frame, David J. and Macey, Adrian H},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-019-0086-4},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {29},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
title = {{Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants}},
volume = {2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Caldwell2014,
author = {Caldwell, Peter M. and Bretherton, Christopher S. and Zelinka, Mark D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL059205},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {1803--1808},
title = {{Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL059205},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Caldwell2018,
author = {Caldwell, Peter M. and Zelinka, Mark D. and Klein, Stephen A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0631.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {3921--3942},
title = {{Evaluating Emergent Constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0631.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Callendar1949,
author = {Callendar, G S},
doi = {10.1002/j.1477-8696.1949.tb00952.x},
journal = {Weather},
number = {10},
pages = {310--314},
title = {{Can Carbon Dioxide Influence Climate?}},
volume = {4},
year = {1949}
}
@article{Callendar1938,
abstract = {By fuel combustion man has added about 150,000 million tons of carbon dioxide to the air during the past half century. The author estimates from the best available data that approximately three quarters of this has remained in the atmosphere.The radiation absorption coefficients of carbon dioxide and water vapour are used to show the effect of carbon dioxide on “sky radiation.” From this the increase in mean temperature, due to the artificial production of carbon dioxide, is estimated to be at the rate of 0.003°C. per year at the present time.The temperature observations a t zoo meteorological stations are used to show that world temperatures have actually increased at an average rate of 0.005°C. per year during the past half century.},
author = {Callendar, G. S.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.49706427503},
isbn = {0035-9009},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {sep},
number = {275},
pages = {223--240},
pmid = {22035306},
title = {{The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.49706427503},
volume = {64},
year = {1938}
}
@article{Callendar1961,
author = {Callendar, G S},
doi = {10.1002/qj.49708737102},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
number = {371},
pages = {1--12},
title = {{Temperature Fluctuations and Trends over the Earth}},
volume = {87},
year = {1961}
}
@article{Canonico2019,
abstract = {The diversity of life in the sea is critical to the health of ocean ecosystems that support living resources and therefore essential to the economic, nutritional, recreational, and health needs of billions of people. Yet there is evidence that the biodiversity of many marine habitats is being altered in response to a changing climate and human activity. Understanding this change, and forecasting where changes are likely to occur, requires monitoring of organism diversity, distribution, abundance, and health. It requires a minimum of measurements including productivity and ecosystem function, species composition, allelic diversity, and genetic expression. These observations need to be complemented with metrics of environmental change and socio-economic drivers. However, existing global ocean observing infrastructure and programs often do not explicitly consider observations of marine biodiversity and associated processes. Much effort has focused on physical, chemical and some biogeochemical measurements. Broad partnerships, shared approaches, and best practices are now being organized to implement an integrated observing system that serves information to resource managers and decision-makers, scientists and educators, from local to global scales. This integrated observing system of ocean life is now possible due to recent developments among satellite, airborne, and in situ sensors in conjunction with increases in information system capability and capacity, along with an improved understanding of marine processes represented in new physical, biogeochemical, and biological models.},
author = {Canonico, Gabrielle and Buttigieg, Pier Luigi and Montes, Enrique and Muller-Karger, Frank E and Stepien, Carol and Wright, Dawn and Benson, Abigail and Helmuth, Brian and Costello, Mark and Sousa-Pinto, Isabel and Saeedi, Hanieh and Newton, Jan and Appeltans, Ward and Bednar{\v{s}}ek, Nina and Bodrossy, Levente and Best, Benjamin D and Brandt, Angelika and Goodwin, Kelly D and Iken, Katrin and Marques, Antonio C and Miloslavich, Patricia and Ostrowski, Martin and Turner, Woody and Achterberg, Eric P and Barry, Tom and Defeo, Omar and Bigatti, Gregorio and Henry, Lea-Anne and Ramiro-S{\'{a}}nchez, Berta and Dur{\'{a}}n, Pablo and Morato, Telmo and Roberts, J Murray and Garc{\'{i}}a-Alegre, Ana and Cuadrado, Mar Sacau and Murton, Bramley},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00367},
isbn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {367},
title = {{Global Observational Needs and Resources for Marine Biodiversity}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00367},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Cardona2012,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Cardona, Omar-Dario and van Aalst, Maarten K. and Birkmann, J{\"{o}}rn and Fordham, Maureen and McGregor, Glenn and Perez, Rosa and Pulwarty, Roger S. and Schipper, E. Lisa F. and Sinh, Bach Tan and D{\'{e}}camps, Henri and Keim, Mark and Davis, Ian and Ebi, Kristie L. and Lavell, Allan and Mechler, Reinhard and Murray, Virginia and Pelling, Mark and Pohl, J{\"{u}}rgen and Smith, Anthony-Oliver and Thomalla, Frank},
booktitle = {Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781139177245.005},
editor = {Field, Christopher B. and Barros, Vicente and Stocker, Thomas F. and Dahe, Qin},
isbn = {9781107025066},
pages = {65--108},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/managing-the-risks-of-extreme-events-and-disasters-to-advance-climate-change-adaptation},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Carslaw2017,
abstract = {We assess the current understanding of the state and behaviour of aerosols under pre-industrial conditions and the importance for climate.},
author = {Carslaw, Kenneth S. and Gordon, Hamish and Hamilton, Douglas S. and Johnson, Jill S. and Regayre, Leighton A. and Yoshioka, M. and Pringle, Kirsty J.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-017-0061-2},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {1--15},
title = {{Aerosols in the Pre-industrial Atmosphere}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-017-0061-2},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Castles2003,
abstract = {This article restates and extends our critique of the economic and statistical work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including in particular the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We respond to the article in the previous issue of Energy and Environment, in which 15 authors associated with the SRES argued against the case we had made there. We give reasons for rejecting their view that market exchange rates (MERs) should be used in deriving cross-country measures of economic growth, and note that in its handling of this and related issues they and others involved in the IPCC process are not professionally representative. We show how the mistaken use of MER-based comparisons, together with questionable assumptions about ‘closing the gap' between rich countries and poor, have imparted an upward bias to projections of economic growth in developing countries, and hence to projections of total world emissions. We list actions that could be taken now, in the context of the IPC...},
author = {Castles, Ian and Henderson, David},
doi = {10.1260/095830503322364430},
issn = {0958-305X},
journal = {Energy {\&} Environment},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {415--435},
publisher = {SAGE PublicationsSage UK: London, England},
title = {{Economics, Emissions Scenarios and the Work of the IPCC}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1260/095830503322364430},
volume = {14},
year = {2003}
}
@misc{CCMI2021,
author = {CCMI},
publisher = {International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) / Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)},
title = {{IGAC/SPARC CCMI Ozone Database and Nitrogen-Deposition Fields in Support of CMIP6}},
url = {https://blogs.reading.ac.uk/ccmi/forcing-databases-in-support-of-cmip6/},
urldate = {2021-03-08},
year = {2021}
}
@techreport{ClimateandDevelopmentKnowledgeNetwork2017,
abstract = {The Raising Risk Awareness (RRA) project uses the latest advances in climate science to understand the role of climate change in the occurrence of extreme events such as flooding, droughts and heatwaves in developing countries. Having a better understanding of whether and how climate change might affect the likelihood and severity of extreme events in a particular location is important when managing future climate risk. The project analyses the role of climate change in recent droughts in Ethiopia and Kenya, and recent flooding and heatwave events in India. In Bangladesh, the project examines the risk of coastal flooding as a result of sea level rise induced by climate change, using the Surging Seas tool. The project also considers how such information is communicated between those who undertake the analyses (scientists), those who disseminate the information (media and communicators) and those who ultimately incorporate this information in decision-making (policy-makers). More detailed information underpinning this summary can be found on the project websites},
author = {CDKN},
doi = {https://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/RRA-project-synthesis-report.pdf},
file = {::},
pages = {30},
publisher = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN)},
title = {{Building capacity for risk management in a changing climate: A synthesis report from the Raising Risk Awareness project}},
url = {https://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/RRA-project-synthesis-report.pdf},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ceballos2017,
abstract = {The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth's sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high—even in “species of low concern.” In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32{\%} (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30{\%} or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40{\%} of the species have experienced severe population declines ({\textgreater}80{\%} range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a “biological annihilation” to highlight the current magnitude of Earth's ongoing sixth major extinction event.},
author = {Ceballos, Gerardo and Ehrlich, Paul R. and Dirzo, Rodolfo},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1704949114},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {jul},
number = {30},
pages = {E6089--E6096},
title = {{Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1704949114},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cesana2016,
author = {Cesana, G. and Waliser, D. E.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL070515},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {10,538--10,546},
title = {{Characterizing and understanding systematic biases in the vertical structure of clouds in CMIP5/CFMIP2 models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL070515},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Chahine2006,
abstract = {The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and its two companion microwave sounders, AMSU and HSB were launched into polar orbit onboard the NASA Aqua Satellite in May 2002. NASA required the sounding system to provide high-quality research data for climate studies and to meet NOAA's requirements for improving operational weather forecasting. The NOAA requirement translated into global retrieval of temperature and humidity profiles with accuracies approaching those of radiosondes. AIRS also provides new measurements of several greenhouse gases, such as CO2, CO, CH4, O3, SO2, and aerosols.The assimilation of AIRS data into operational weather forecasting has already demonstrated significant improvements in global forecast skill. At NOAA/NCEP, the improvement in the forecast skill achieved at 6 days is equivalent to gaining an extension of forecast capability of six hours. This improvement is quite significant when compared to other forecast improvements over the last decade. In addition to NCEP, ECMWF and the Met Office have also reported positive forecast impacts due AIRS.AIRS is a hyperspectral sounder with 2,378 infrared channels between 3.7 and 15.4 $\mu$m. NOAA/NESDIS routinely distributes AIRS data within 3 hours to NWP centers around the world. The AIRS design represents a breakthrough in infrared space instrumentation with measurement stability and accuracies far surpassing any current research or operational sounder..The results we describe in this paper are “work in progress,” and although significant accomplishments have already been made much more work remains in order to realize the full potential of this suite of instruments.},
author = {Chahine, Moustafa T. and Pagano, Thomas S. and Aumann, Hartmut H. and Atlas, Robert and Barnet, Christopher and Blaisdell, John and Chen, Luke and Divakarla, Murty and Fetzer, Eric J. and Goldberg, Mitch and Gautier, Catherine and Granger, Stephanie and Hannon, Scott and Irion, Fredrick W. and Kakar, Ramesh and Kalnay, Eugenia and Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H. and Lee, Sung-Yung and Marshall, John Le and Mcmillan, W. Wallace and Mcmillin, Larry and Olsen, Edward T. and Revercomb, Henry and Rosenkranz, Philip and Smith, William L. and Staelin, David and Strow, L. Larrabee and Susskind, Joel and Tobin, David and Wolf, Walter and Zhou, Lihang},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-87-7-911},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {911--926},
title = {{AIRS: Improving Weather Forecasting and Providing New Data on Greenhouse Gases}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-7-911},
volume = {87},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Chamberlin1898,
author = {Chamberlin, Thomas C},
doi = {10.1086/608185},
journal = {Journal of Geology},
pages = {609--621},
title = {{The Influence of Great Epochs of Limestone Formation upon the Constitution of the Atmosphere}},
volume = {6},
year = {1898}
}
@article{Chamberlin1897,
author = {Chamberlin, Thomas C},
doi = {10.1086/607921},
journal = {Journal of Geology},
pages = {653--683},
title = {{A Group of Hypotheses Bearing on Climatic Changes}},
volume = {5},
year = {1897}
}
@article{CHARLSON1992,
author = {Charlson, R. J. and Schwartz, S. E. and Hales, J. M. and Cess, R. D. and Coakley, J. A. and Hansen, J. E. and Hofmann, D. J.},
doi = {10.1126/science.255.5043.423},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jan},
number = {5043},
pages = {423--430},
title = {{Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.255.5043.423},
volume = {255},
year = {1992}
}
@article{Charlson1987,
author = {Charlson, Robert J. and Lovelock, James E. and Andreae, Meinrat O. and Warren, Stephen G.},
doi = {10.1038/326655a0},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {apr},
number = {6114},
pages = {655--661},
title = {{Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric sulphur, cloud albedo and climate}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/326655a0},
volume = {326},
year = {1987}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/jgrd.50125,
abstract = {We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high-top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low-top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low-top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low-top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high-top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low-top models affects their stratosphere-troposphere coupling, resulting in short-lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long-lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low-top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high-top models compared to the low-top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions.},
author = {Charlton-Perez, Andrew J and Baldwin, Mark P and Birner, Thomas and Black, Robert X and Butler, Amy H and Calvo, Natalia and Davis, Nicholas A and Gerber, Edwin P and Gillett, Nathan and Hardiman, Steven and Kim, Junsu and Kr{\"{u}}ger, Kirstin and Lee, Yun-Young and Manzini, Elisa and McDaniel, Brent A and Polvani, Lorenzo and Reichler, Thomas and Shaw, Tiffany A and Sigmond, Michael and Son, Seok-Woo and Toohey, Matthew and Wilcox, Laura and Yoden, Shigeo and Christiansen, Bo and Lott, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Shindell, Drew and Yukimoto, Seiji and Watanabe, Shingo},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50125},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CMIP5,Climate,Stratosphere,Validation},
number = {6},
pages = {2494--2505},
title = {{On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jgrd.50125},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{CHARNEY1950,
author = {Charney, J. G. and Fj{\"{o}}rtoft, R. and Neumann, J.},
doi = {10.1111/j.2153-3490.1950.tb00336.x},
issn = {00402826},
journal = {Tellus},
month = {nov},
number = {4},
pages = {237--254},
title = {{Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation}},
volume = {2},
year = {1950}
}
@article{Checa-Garcia2018a,
abstract = {Abstract We calculate ozone radiative forcing (RF) and stratospheric temperature adjustments for the period 1850?2014 using the newly available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ozone data set. The CMIP6 total ozone RF (1850s to 2000s) is 0.28 ± 0.17 W m?2 (which is 80{\%} higher than our CMIP5 estimation), and 0.30 ± 0.17 W m?2 out to the present day (2014). The total ozone RF grows rapidly until the 1970s, slows toward the 2000s, and shows a renewed growth thereafter. Since the 1990s the shortwave RF exceeds the longwave RF. Global stratospheric ozone RF is positive between 1930 and 1970 and then turns negative but remains positive in the Northern Hemisphere throughout. Derived stratospheric temperature changes show a localized cooling in the subtropical lower stratosphere due to tropospheric ozone increases and cooling in the upper stratosphere due to ozone depletion by more than 1 K already prior to the satellite era (1980) and by more than 2 K out to the present day (2014).},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076770},
author = {Checa-Garcia, Ramiro and Hegglin, Michaela I and Kinnison, Douglas and Plummer, David A and Shine, Keith P},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076770},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP6,ozone,radiative forcing,stratosphere,stratospheric adjusted temperatures,troposphere},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3264--3273},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Historical Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing Using the CMIP6 Database}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076770},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chen2018,
author = {Chen, Dake and Smith, Neville and Kessler, William},
doi = {10.1093/nsr/nwy137},
issn = {2095-5138},
journal = {National Science Review},
number = {6},
pages = {805--807},
title = {{The evolving ENSO observing system}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwy137},
volume = {5},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chen2018,
abstract = {The acceleration of sea-level rise continues, but this has not been clear in the short altimeter record. This study closes the sea-level rise budget for 1993–2014 and illustrates the increased contribution from the Greenland ice sheet.},
author = {Chen, Xianyao and Zhang, Xuebin and Church, John A and Watson, Christopher S and King, Matt A and Monselesan, Didier and Legresy, Benoit and Harig, Christopher},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3325},
issn = {1758-6798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {7},
pages = {492--495},
title = {{The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3325},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cheng2016c,
abstract = {The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia's hydroclimate variability from Tonnel'naya cave, Uzbekistan and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel'naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia.},
author = {Cheng, Hai and Sp{\"{o}}tl, Christoph and Breitenbach, Sebastian F M and Sinha, Ashish and Wassenburg, Jasper A and Jochum, Klaus Peter and Scholz, Denis and Li, Xianglei and Yi, Liang and Peng, Youbing and Lv, Yanbin and Zhang, Pingzhong and Votintseva, Antonina and Loginov, Vadim and Ning, Youfeng and Kathayat, Gayatri and Edwards, R Lawrence},
doi = {10.1038/srep36975},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {36975},
title = {{Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/srep36975},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Cheng2013c,
author = {Cheng, Hai and {Lawrence Edwards}, R. and Shen, Chuan-Chou and Polyak, Victor J. and Asmerom, Yemane and Woodhead, Jon and Hellstrom, John and Wang, Yongjin and Kong, Xinggong and Sp{\"{o}}tl, Christoph and Wang, Xianfeng and {Calvin Alexander}, E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2013.04.006},
issn = {0012821X},
journal = {Earth and Planetary Science Letters},
month = {jun},
pages = {82--91},
title = {{Improvements in 230Th dating, 230Th and 234U half-life values, and U–Th isotopic measurements by multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012821X13001878},
volume = {371-372},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Chepfer2018,
author = {Chepfer, H. and Noel, V. and Chiriaco, M. and Wielicki, B. and Winker, D. and Loeb, N. and Wood, R.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027742},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5433--5454},
title = {{The Potential of a Multidecade Spaceborne Lidar Record to Constrain Cloud Feedback}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017JD027742},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chevallier2017,
abstract = {Ocean–sea ice reanalyses are crucial for assessing the variability and recent trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. This is especially true for sea ice volume, as long-term and large scale sea ice thickness observations are inexistent. Results from the Ocean ReAnalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP) are presented, with a focus on Arctic sea ice fields reconstructed by state-of-the-art global ocean reanalyses. Differences between the various reanalyses are explored in terms of the effects of data assimilation, model physics and atmospheric forcing on properties of the sea ice cover, including concentration, thickness, velocity and snow.Amongst the 14 reanalyses studied here, 9 assimilate sea ice concentration, and none assimilate sea ice thickness data. The comparison reveals an overall agreement in the reconstructed concentration fields, mainly because of the constraints in surface temperature imposed by direct assimilation of ocean observations, prescribed or assimilated atmospheric forcing and assimilation of sea ice concentration. However, some spread still exists amongst the reanalyses, due to a variety of factors. In particular, a large spread in sea ice thickness is found within the ensemble of reanalyses, partially caused by the biases inherited from their sea ice model components. Biases are also affected by the assimilation of sea ice concentration and the treatment of sea ice thickness in the data assimilation process. An important outcome of this study is that the spatial distribution of ice volume varies widely between products, with no reanalysis standing out as clearly superior as compared to altimetry estimates. The ice thickness from systems without assimilation of sea ice concentration is not worse than that from systems constrained with sea ice observations. An evaluation of the sea ice velocity fields reveals that ice drifts too fast in most systems. As an ensemble, the ORA-IP reanalyses capture trends in Arctic sea ice area and extent relatively well. However, the ensemble can not be used to get a robust estimate of recent trends in the Arctic sea ice volume. Biases in the reanalyses certainly impact the simulated air–sea fluxes in the polar regions, and questions the suitability of current sea ice reanalyses to initialize seasonal forecasts.},
author = {Chevallier, Matthieu and Smith, Gregory C and Dupont, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Lemieux, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Forget, Gael and Fujii, Yosuke and Hernandez, Fabrice and Msadek, Rym and Peterson, K Andrew and Storto, Andrea and Toyoda, Takahiro and Valdivieso, Maria and Vernieres, Guillaume and Zuo, Hao and Balmaseda, Magdalena and Chang, You-Soon and Ferry, Nicolas and Garric, Gilles and Haines, Keith and Keeley, Sarah and Kovach, Robin M and Kuragano, Tsurane and Masina, Simona and Tang, Yongming and Tsujino, Hiroyuki and Wang, Xiaochun},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-2985-y},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {1107--1136},
title = {{Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean–sea ice reanalyses from the ORA-IP project}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-2985-y},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Christensen2018,
abstract = {Forecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010–2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1{\%} per year, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.1 percentage points, indicating substantially higher uncertainty than is implied in existing forecasts. The larger range of growth rates implies a greater likelihood of extreme climate change outcomes than is currently assumed and has important implications for social insurance programs in the United States.},
author = {Christensen, P. and Gillingham, K. and Nordhaus, W.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1713628115},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {21},
pages = {5409--5414},
title = {{Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1713628115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Church2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Church, J A and Clark, P U and Cazenave, A and Gregory, J M and Jevrejeva, S and Levermann, A and Merrifield, M A and Milne, G A and Nerem, R S and Nunn, P D and Payne, A J and Pfeffer, W T and Stammer, D and Unnikrishnan, A S},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {13},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.026},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {1137--1216},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Sea Level Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{CHUVIECO201945,
abstract = {Fire has a diverse range of impacts on Earth's physical and social systems. Accurate and up to date information on areas affected by fire is critical to better understand drivers of fire activity, as well as its relevance for biogeochemical cycles, climate, air quality, and to aid fire management. Mapping burned areas was traditionally done from field sketches. With the launch of the first Earth observation satellites, remote sensing quickly became a more practical alternative to detect burned areas, as they provide timely regional and global coverage of fire occurrence. This review paper explores the physical basis to detect burned area from satellite observations, describes the historical trends of using satellite sensors to monitor burned areas, summarizes the most recent approaches to map burned areas and evaluates the existing burned area products (both at global and regional scales). Finally, it identifies potential future opportunities to further improve burned area detection from Earth observation satellites.},
author = {Chuvieco, Emilio and Mouillot, Florent and van der Werf, Guido R and Miguel, Jes{\'{u}}s San and Tanase, Mihai and Koutsias, Nikos and Garc{\'{i}}a, Mariano and Yebra, Marta and Padilla, Marc and Gitas, Ioannis and Heil, Angelika and Hawbaker, Todd J and Giglio, Louis},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.013},
issn = {0034-4257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {Burned area,Climate change,Fire,Fire impacts,Lidar,Radar},
pages = {45--64},
title = {{Historical background and current developments for mapping burned area from satellite Earth observation}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425719300689},
volume = {225},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chuwah2013,
author = {Chuwah, Clifford and van Noije, Twan and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Hazeleger, Wilco and Strunk, Achim and Deetman, Sebastiaan and Beltran, Angelica Mendoza and van Vliet, Jasper},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.07.008},
issn = {13522310},
journal = {Atmospheric Environment},
month = {nov},
pages = {787--801},
title = {{Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231013005293},
volume = {79},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Ciais2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Ciais, P and Sabine, C and Bala, G and Bopp, L and Brovkin, V and Canadell, J and Chhabra, A and DeFries, R and Galloway, J and Heimann, M and Jones, C and {Le Quéré}, C and Myneni, R B and Piao, S and Thornton, P},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {6},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.015},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {465--570},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Clark2016,
author = {Clark, Peter U. and Shakun, Jeremy D. and Marcott, Shaun A. and Mix, Alan C. and Eby, Michael and Kulp, Scott and Levermann, Anders and Milne, Glenn A. and Pfister, Patrik L. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Schrag, Daniel P. and Solomon, Susan and Stocker, Thomas F. and Strauss, Benjamin H. and Weaver, Andrew J. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Archer, David and Bard, Edouard and Goldner, Aaron and Lambeck, Kurt and Pierrehumbert, Raymond T. and Plattner, Gian-Kasper},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2923},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {360--369},
title = {{Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2923},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Claussen2002,
author = {Claussen, M and Mysak, LA and Weaver, AJ and Crucifix, M and Fichefet, T and Loutre, MF and Weber, SL and Alcamo, J and Alexeev, VA and Berger, A and Calov, R and Ganopolski, A and Goosse, H and Lohmann, G and Lunkeit, F and Mokhov, II and Petoukhov, V and Stone, P and Wang, Z},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-001-0200-1},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {mar},
number = {7},
pages = {579--586},
title = {{Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-001-0200-1},
volume = {18},
year = {2002}
}
@article{rs8030263,
abstract = {In- land surface models, which are used to evaluate the role of vegetation in the context of global climate change and variability, LAI and FAPAR play a key role, specifically with respect to the carbon and water cycles. The AVHRR-based LAI/FAPAR dataset offers daily temporal resolution, an improvement over previous products. This climate data record is based on a carefully calibrated and corrected land surface reflectance dataset to provide a high-quality, consistent time-series suitable for climate studies. It spans from mid-1981 to the present. Further, this operational dataset is available in near real-time allowing use for monitoring purposes. The algorithm relies on artificial neural networks calibrated using the MODIS LAI/FAPAR dataset. Evaluation based on cross-comparison with MODIS products and in situ data show the dataset is consistent and reliable with overall uncertainties of 1.03 and 0.15 for LAI and FAPAR, respectively. However, a clear saturation effect is observed in the broadleaf forest biomes with high LAI ({\textgreater}4.5) and FAPAR ({\textgreater}0.8) values.},
author = {Claverie, Martin and Matthews, Jessica L and Vermote, Eric F and Justice, Christopher O},
doi = {10.3390/rs8030263},
issn = {2072-4292},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
number = {3},
pages = {263},
title = {{A 30+ Year AVHRR LAI and FAPAR Climate Data Record: Algorithm Description and Validation}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/8/3/263},
volume = {8},
year = {2016}
}
@book{Clayton1927,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
annote = {UniM ERC B 551.5 WORL : 1971-80
UniM EarthSci 551.5 WORL : 1941/50},
author = {Clayton, H H},
keywords = {Meteorology Observations Periodicals.},
pages = {1199},
publisher = {Smithsonian Institution},
series = {Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections Vol. 79},
title = {{World Weather Records}},
url = {https://repository.si.edu/handle/10088/24035},
year = {1927}
}
@article{cp-16-699-2020,
author = {Cleator, S F and Harrison, S P and Nichols, N K and Prentice, I C and Roulstone, I},
doi = {10.5194/cp-16-699-2020},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {2},
pages = {699--712},
title = {{A new multivariable benchmark for Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/699/2020/},
volume = {16},
year = {2020}
}
@article{McIntyre1976,
abstract = {Quantitative geologic evidence is used to reconst boundary conditions for the climate 18,000 years ago.},
author = {{CLIMAP Project Members} and McIntyre, A. and Moore, T. C. and Andersen, B. and Balsam, W. and B{\'{e}}, A. and Brunner, C. and Cooley, J. and Crowley, T. and Denton, G. and Gardner, J. and Geitzenauer, K. and Hays, J. D. and Hutson, W. and Imbrie, J. and Irving, G. and Kellogg, T. and Kennett, J. and Kipp, N. and Kukla, G. and Kukla, H. and Lozano, J. and Luz, B. and Mangion, S. and Matthews, R. K. and Mayewski, P. and Molfino, B. and Ninkovich, D. and Opdyke, N. and Prell, W. and Robertson, J. and Ruddiman, W. F. and Sachs, H. and Saito, T. and Shackleton, N. and Thierstein, H. and Thompson, P.},
doi = {10.1126/science.191.4232.1131},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {mar},
number = {4232},
pages = {1131--1137},
title = {{The Surface of the Ice-Age Earth}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.191.4232.1131},
volume = {191},
year = {1976}
}
@book{Coen2018,
address = {Chicago, IL, USA},
author = {Coen, Deborah R.},
doi = {10.7208/chicago/9780226555027.001.0001},
pages = {423},
publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
title = {{Climate in Motion: Science, Empire, and the Problem of Scale}},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{TheAdventofClimateScience,
address = {Oxford, UK},
author = {Coen, Deborah R.},
booktitle = {Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science},
doi = {10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.716},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {{The Advent of Climate Science}},
url = {https://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-716},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cohen2018,
abstract = {Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species 1-5 . Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level 1, latitude 6 and how phenological responses are measured 7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.},
author = {Cohen, Jeremy M. and Lajeunesse, Marc J. and Rohr, Jason R.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0067-3},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {224--228},
title = {{A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0067-3},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Collins2013a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Collins, M and Knutti, R and Arblaster, J and Dufresne, J.-L. and Fichefet, T and Friedlingstein, P and Gao, X and Gutowski, W J and Johns, T and Krinner, G and Shongwe, M and Tebaldi, C and Weaver, A J and Wehner, M},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {12},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {1029--1136},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Collins2017,
abstract = {Abstract. The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifically near-term climate forcers (NTCFs: methane, tropospheric ozone and aerosols, and their precursors), nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting halocarbons. The aim of AerChemMIP is to answer four scientific questions. 1. How have anthropogenic emissions contributed to global radiative forcing and affected regional climate over the historical period? 2. How might future policies (on climate, air quality and land use) affect the abundances of NTCFs and their climate impacts? 3.How do uncertainties in historical NTCF emissions affect radiative forcing estimates? 4. How important are climate feedbacks to natural NTCF emissions, atmospheric composition, and radiative effects? These questions will be addressed through targeted simulations with CMIP6 climate models that include an interactive representation of tropospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry. These simulations build on the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, the CMIP6 historical simulations, and future projections performed elsewhere in CMIP6, allowing the contributions from aerosols and/or chemistry to be quantified. Specific diagnostics are requested as part of the CMIP6 data request to highlight the chemical composition of the atmosphere, to evaluate the performance of the models, and to understand differences in behaviour between them.},
author = {Collins, William J. and Lamarque, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Schulz, Michael and Boucher, Olivier and Eyring, Veronika and Hegglin, Michaela I. and Maycock, Amanda and Myhre, Gunnar and Prather, Michael and Shindell, Drew and Smith, Steven J.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {585--607},
title = {{AerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/585/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Collins2019,
author = {Collins, William J and Frame, David J. and Fuglestvedt, Jan S and Shine, Keith Peter},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab6039},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {024018},
title = {{Stable climate metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species – combining steps and pulses}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6039},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@misc{ColombA.ConilS.DelmotteM.HeliaszM.HermannsenO.HolstJ.Yver-Kwok2018,
author = {Colomb, A. and Conil, S. and Delmotte, M. and Heliasz, M. and Hermannsen, O. and Holst, J. and Keronen, P. and Kom{\'{i}}nkov{\'{a}}, K. and Kubistin, D. and Laurent, O. and Lehner, I. and Levula, J. and Lindauer, M. and Lunder, C. and {Lund Myhre}, C. and Marek, M. and Marklund, P. and M{\"{o}}lder, M. and {Ottosson L{\"{o}}fvenius}, M. and Pichon, J.-M. and Pla{\ss}-D{\^{u}}lmer, C. and Ramonet, M. and Schumacher, M. and Steinbacher, M. and V{\'{i}}tkov{\'{a}}, G. and Weyrauch, D. and Yver-Kwok, C.},
doi = {10.18160/RHKC-VP22},
publisher = {Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) – European Research Infrastructure Consortium (ERIC)},
title = {{ICOS Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Mole Fractions of CO2, CH4, CO, 14CO2 and Meteorological Observations 2016-2018, final quality controlled Level 2 data}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.18160/RHKC-VP22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{quat2010007,
abstract = {Isotopic records from speleothems are an important source of information about past climates and, given the increase in the number of isotope-enabled climate models, are likely to become an important tool for climate model evaluation. SISAL (Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis) have created a global database of isotopic records from speleothems in order to facilitate regional analyses and data-model comparison. The papers in this Special Issue showcase the use of the database for regional analyses. In this paper, we discuss some of the important issues underpinning the use of speleothems and how the existence of this database assists palaeoclimate research. We also highlight some of the lessons learned in the creation of the SISAL database and outline potential research going forward.},
author = {Comas-Bru, Laia and Harrison, Sandy P},
doi = {10.3390/quat2010007},
issn = {2571-550X},
journal = {Quaternary},
number = {1},
pages = {7},
title = {{SISAL: Bringing Added Value to Speleothem Research}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-550X/2/1/7},
volume = {2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Compo2011,
abstract = {The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate model simulations of the twentieth century on all time-scales, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess' fields supplied by an ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis.$\backslash$r$\backslash$n$\backslash$r$\backslash$nThe 20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time-varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6-hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three-day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half-century of these surface-based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper-air and satellite data are equally encouraging.$\backslash$r$\backslash$n$\backslash$r$\backslash$nIt is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Compo, G. P. and Whitaker, J. S. and Sardeshmukh, P. D. and Matsui, N. and Allan, R. J. and Yin, X. and Gleason, B. E. and Vose, R. S. and Rutledge, G. and Bessemoulin, P. and BroNnimann, S. and Brunet, M. and Crouthamel, R. I. and Grant, A. N. and Groisman, P. Y. and Jones, P. D. and Kruk, M. C. and Kruger, A. C. and Marshall, G. J. and Maugeri, M. and Mok, H. Y. and Nordli, O. and Ross, T. F. and Trigo, R. M. and Wang, X. L. and Woodruff, S. D. and Worley, S. J.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.776},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {0035-9009},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {Data assimilation,Ensemble Kalman Filter,Sea-level pressure,State estimation,Surface pressure},
number = {654},
pages = {1--28},
pmid = {20167801},
title = {{The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project}},
volume = {137},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Cook2015,
abstract = {Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.},
author = {Cook, Edward R and Seager, Richard and Kushnir, Yochanan and Briffa, Keith R and B{\"{u}}ntgen, Ulf and Frank, David and Krusic, Paul J and Tegel, Willy and van der Schrier, Gerard and Andreu-Hayles, Laia and Baillie, Mike and Baittinger, Claudia and Bleicher, Niels and Bonde, Niels and Brown, David and Carrer, Marco and Cooper, Richard and {\v{C}}ufar, Katarina and Dittmar, Christoph and Esper, Jan and Griggs, Carol and Gunnarson, Bj{\"{o}}rn and G{\"{u}}nther, Bj{\"{o}}rn and Gutierrez, Emilia and Haneca, Kristof and Helama, Samuli and Herzig, Franz and Heussner, Karl-Uwe and Hofmann, Jutta and Janda, Pavel and Kontic, Raymond and K{\"{o}}se, Nesibe and Kyncl, Tom{\'{a}}{\v{s}} and Levani{\v{c}}, Tom and Linderholm, Hans and Manning, Sturt and Melvin, Thomas M and Miles, Daniel and Neuwirth, Burkhard and Nicolussi, Kurt and Nola, Paola and Panayotov, Momchil and Popa, Ionel and Rothe, Andreas and Seftigen, Kristina and Seim, Andrea and Svarva, Helene and Svoboda, Miroslav and Thun, Terje and Timonen, Mauri and Touchan, Ramzi and Trotsiuk, Volodymyr and Trouet, Valerie and Walder, Felix and Wa{\.{z}}ny, Tomasz and Wilson, Rob and Zang, Christian},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1500561},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {nov},
number = {10},
pages = {e1500561},
title = {{Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era}},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/10/e1500561.abstract},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Coppola2019,
abstract = {A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes.},
author = {Coppola, Erika and Sobolowski, Stefan and Pichelli, E and Raffaele, F and Ahrens, B and Anders, I and Ban, N and Bastin, S and Belda, M and Belusic, D and Caldas-Alvarez, A and Cardoso, R M and Davolio, S and Dobler, A and Fernandez, J and Fita, L and Fumiere, Q and Giorgi, F and Goergen, K and G{\"{u}}ttler, I and Halenka, T and Heinzeller, D and Hodnebrog, {\O} and Jacob, D and Kartsios, S and Katragkou, E and Kendon, E and Khodayar, S and Kunstmann, H and Knist, S and Lav{\'{i}}n-Gull{\'{o}}n, A and Lind, P and Lorenz, T and Maraun, D and Marelle, L and van Meijgaard, E and Milovac, J and Myhre, G and Panitz, H.-J. and Piazza, M and Raffa, M and Raub, T and Rockel, B and Sch{\"{a}}r, C and Sieck, K and Soares, P M M and Somot, S and Srnec, L and Stocchi, P and T{\"{o}}lle, M H and Truhetz, H and Vautard, R and de Vries, H and Warrach-Sagi, K},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {3--34},
title = {{A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8},
volume = {55},
year = {2020}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.100,
abstract = {Abstract A new data set of Night Marine Air Temperature (NMAT) is presented that builds on the HadNMAT2 data set, which was released in 2013. In a similar manner to HadNMAT2, the new data set (CLASSnmat) provides uninterpolated, monthly global values at a 5° resolution back to 1880. In addition to being extended to the end of 2019, four main developments are made in CLASSnmat: (1) the NMAT values are extracted from the most recent version of the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS Release 3) and a revised method of eliminating duplicated observations is used; (2) values of NMAT are adjusted to 2m and 20m heights in addition to the 10 m height used in HadNMAT2; (3) a refinement is made to the corrections necessary during World War 2, which uses more of the NMAT observations and hence results in a more extensive spatial coverage for this period than was possible in HadNMAT2; (4) an updated gridding method is used that allows for an improved propagation of uncertainty from the individual NMAT values through to the gridded estimates. In this paper, the method used to construct CLASSnmat (version 1.0.0.0) is described.},
author = {Cornes, Richard C and Kent, Elizabeth.C. and Berry, David.I. and Kennedy, John J},
doi = {10.1002/gdj3.100},
journal = {Geoscience Data Journal},
keywords = {NMAT,climate change,global surface temperature,marine,observations},
number = {2},
pages = {170--184},
title = {{CLASSnmat: A global night marine air temperature data set, 1880–2019}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/gdj3.100},
volume = {7},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cornford2016,
abstract = {At least in conventional hydrostatic ice-sheet models, the numerical error associated with grounding line dynamics can be reduced by modifications to the discretization scheme. These involve altering the integration formulae for the basal traction and/or driving stress close to the grounding line and exhibit lower – if still first-order – error in the MISMIP3d experiments. MISMIP3d may not represent the variety of real ice streams, in that it lacks strong lateral stresses, and imposes a large basal traction at the grounding line. We study resolution sensitivity in the context of extreme forcing simulations of the entire Antarctic ice sheet, using the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice-sheet model with two schemes: the original treatment, and a scheme, which modifies the discretization of the basal traction. The second scheme does indeed improve accuracy – by around a factor of two – for a given mesh spacing, but        {\$}\backslashlesssim 1{\$}     km resolution is still necessary. For example, in coarser resolution simulations Thwaites Glacier retreats so slowly that other ice streams divert its trunk. In contrast, with       {\$}\backslashlesssim 1{\$}     km meshes, the same glacier retreats far more quickly and triggers the final phase of West Antarctic collapse a century before any such diversion can take place.},
author = {Cornford, S L and Martin, D F and Lee, V and Payne, A J and Ng, E G},
doi = {DOI: 10.1017/aog.2016.13},
edition = {2016/05/13},
issn = {0260-3055},
journal = {Annals of Glaciology},
keywords = {ice dynamics,ice streams,ice-sheet modelling},
number = {73},
pages = {1--9},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Adaptive mesh refinement versus subgrid friction interpolation in simulations of Antarctic ice dynamics}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/adaptive-mesh-refinement-versus-subgrid-friction-interpolation-in-simulations-of-antarctic-ice-dynamics/E4C4E3039F1A310AF74EBF9C77A2447E},
volume = {57},
year = {2016}
}
@techreport{Medicine2009,
abstract = {Book Description: The scientific research enterprise is built on a foundation of trust. Scientists trust that the results reported by others are valid. Society trusts that the results of research reflect an honest attempt by scientists to describe the world accurately and without bias. But this trust will endure only if the scientific community devotes itself to exemplifying and transmitting the values associated with ethical scientific conduct. On Being a Scientist was designed to supplement the informal lessons in ethics provided by research supervisors and mentors. The book describes the ethical foundations of scientific practices and some of the personal and professional issues that researchers encounter in their work. It applies to all forms of research--whether in academic, industrial, or governmental settings-and to all scientific disciplines. This third edition of On Being a Scientist reflects developments since the publication of the original edition in 1989 and a second edition in 1995. A continuing feature of this edition is the inclusion of a number of hypothetical scenarios offering guidance in thinking about and discussing these scenarios. On Being a Scientist is aimed primarily at graduate students and beginning researchers, but its lessons apply to all scientists at all stages of their scientific careers.},
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
annote = {{\$}14.88
Used Price: {\$}0.98
Paperback},
author = {COSEPUP},
doi = {https://www.nap.edu/read/12192},
isbn = {0309119707},
pages = {63},
publisher = {Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP), National Academy of Science, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine of the National Academies. The National Academies Press},
title = {{On Being a Scientist: A Guide to Responsible Conduct in Research (3rd Edition)}},
url = {https://www.nap.edu/read/12192},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Covey2003,
author = {Covey, Curt and AchutaRao, Krishna M. and Cubasch, Ulrich and Jones, Phil and Lambert, Steven J. and Mann, Michael E. and Phillips, Thomas J. and Taylor, Karl E.},
doi = {10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00193-5},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
month = {jun},
number = {1-2},
pages = {103--133},
title = {{An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818102001935},
volume = {37},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Covey2016,
author = {Covey, Curt and Gleckler, Peter J. and Doutriaux, Charles and Williams, Dean N. and Dai, Aiguo and Fasullo, John and Trenberth, Kevin and Berg, Alexis},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0664.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4461--4471},
title = {{Metrics for the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: Toward Routine Benchmarks for Climate Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0664.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Cowtan2014,
abstract = {Incomplete global coverage is a potential source of bias in global temperature reconstructions if the unsampled regions are not uniformly distributed over the planet's surface. The widely used HadCRUT4 dataset covers on average about 84{\%} of the globe ... $\backslash$n},
author = {Cowtan, Kevin and Way, Robert G.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2297},
isbn = {1477-870X},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {Coverage bias,Instrumental temperature record,Temperature trends},
month = {jul},
number = {683},
pages = {1935--1944},
title = {{Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2297},
volume = {140},
year = {2014}
}
@incollection{Cramer2014,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Cramer, W. and G.W.Yohe and Auffhammer, M. and Huggel, C. and Molau, U. and da Solva, M.A.F. and Solow, A. and Stone, D.A. and Tibing, L.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415379.023},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Dokken, D.J. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058071},
pages = {979--1037},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Detection and attribution of observed impacts}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Crawford1997,
author = {Crawford, Elizabeth},
doi = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/4314543},
journal = {AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment},
number = {1},
pages = {6--11},
title = {{Arrhenius' 1896 Model of the Greenhouse Effect in Context}},
url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/4314543},
volume = {26},
year = {1997}
}
@article{Crutzen2000,
author = {Crutzen, P.J. and Stoermer, E.F.},
doi = {http://www.igbp.net/download/18.316f18321323470177580001401/1376383088452/NL41.pdf},
journal = {IGBP Newsletter},
number = {41},
pages = {17--18},
title = {{The “Anthropocene”}},
url = {http://www.igbp.net/download/18.316f18321323470177580001401/1376383088452/NL41.pdf},
year = {2000}
}
@incollection{Cubasch2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Cubasch, U and Wuebbles, D and Chen, D and Facchini, M C and Frame, D and Mahowald, N and Winther, J.-G.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {1},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.007},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {978-1-107-66182-0},
pages = {119--158},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Introduction}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Cucchi2020,
abstract = {Abstract. The WFDE5 dataset has been generated using the WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) methodology applied to surface meteorological variables from the ERA5 reanalysis. The WFDEI dataset had previously been generated by applying the WFD methodology to ERA-Interim. The WFDE5 is provided at 0.5∘ spatial resolution but has higher temporal resolution (hourly) compared to WFDEI (3-hourly). It also has higher spatial variability since it was generated by aggregation of the higher-resolution ERA5 rather than by interpolation of the lower-resolution ERA-Interim data. Evaluation against meteorological observations at 13 globally distributed FLUXNET2015 sites shows that, on average, WFDE5 has lower mean absolute error and higher correlation than WFDEI for all variables. Bias-adjusted monthly precipitation totals of WFDE5 result in more plausible global hydrological water balance components when analysed in an uncalibrated hydrological model (WaterGAP) than with the use of raw ERA5 data for model forcing. The dataset, which can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.20d54e34 (C3S, 2020b), is distributed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) through its Climate Data Store (CDS, C3S, 2020a) and currently spans from the start of January 1979 to the end of 2018. The dataset has been produced using a number of CDS Toolbox applications, whose source code is available with the data – allowing users to regenerate part of the dataset or apply the same approach to other data. Future updates are expected spanning from 1950 to the most recent year. A sample of the complete dataset, which covers the whole of the year 2016, is accessible without registration to the CDS at https://doi.org/10.21957/935p-cj60 (Cucchi et al., 2020).},
author = {Cucchi, Marco and Weedon, Graham P. and Amici, Alessandro and Bellouin, Nicolas and Lange, Stefan and {M{\"{u}}ller Schmied}, Hannes and Hersbach, Hans and Buontempo, Carlo},
doi = {10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
keywords = {Climate change,Environmental science,Forcing (mathematics),Interpolation,Meteorology,Precipitation,Source code,Spatial variability,Temporal resolution,Water balance},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {2097--2120},
title = {{WFDE5: bias-adjusted ERA5 reanalysis data for impact studies}},
url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2097/2020/},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{cp-15-1099-2019,
author = {Cuesta-Valero, F J and Garcia-Garcia, A and Beltrami, H and Zorita, E and Jaume-Santero, F},
doi = {10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {3},
pages = {1099--1111},
title = {{Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) database as a complement for GCM preindustrial simulations}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/15/1099/2019/},
volume = {15},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Cui2017,
abstract = {AbstractAtmospheric reanalyses have been used in many studies to investigate the variabilities and trends of precipitation because of their global coverage and long record; however, their results must be properly analyzed and their uncertainties must be understood. In this study, precipitation estimates from five global reanalyses [ERA-Interim; MERRA, version 2 (MERRA2); JRA-55; CFSR; and 20CR, version 2c (20CRv2c)] and one regional reanalysis (NARR) are compared against the CPC Unified Gauge-Based Analysis (CPCUGA) and GPCP over the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the period 1980?2013. Reanalyses capture the variability of the precipitation distribution over the CONUS as observed in CPCUGA and GPCP, but large regional and seasonal differences exist. Compared with CPCUGA, global reanalyses generally overestimate the precipitation over the western part of the country throughout the year and over the northeastern CONUS during the fall and winter seasons. These issues may be associated with the difficulties models have in accurately simulating precipitation over complex terrain and during snowfall events. Furthermore, systematic errors found in five global reanalyses suggest that their physical processes in modeling precipitation need to be improved. Even though negative biases exist in NARR, its spatial variability is similar to both CPCUGA and GPCP; this is anticipated because it assimilates observed precipitation, unlike the global reanalyses. Based on CPCUGA, there is an average decreasing trend of ?1.38 mm yr?1 over the CONUS, which varies depending on the region with only the north-central to northeastern parts of the country having positive trends. Although all reanalyses exhibit similar interannual variation as observed in CPCUGA, their estimated precipitation trends, both linear and spatial trends, are distinct from CPCUGA.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-17-0029.1},
author = {Cui, Wenjun and Dong, Xiquan and Xi, Baike and Kennedy, Aaron},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-17-0029.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {jun},
number = {8},
pages = {2227--2248},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Evaluation of Reanalyzed Precipitation Variability and Trends Using the Gridded Gauge-Based Analysis over the CONUS}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0029.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cullen1993,
abstract = {The reasons for adopting a unified forecast/climate model are discussed. The model is described and related to previous forecast and climate models in use in the Meteorological Office. The software system used to implement it is also briefly described. Examples of its performance are shown in global and limited area forecasts, long range forecasts, climate simulations, and upper atmosphere forecasts.},
author = {Cullen, MJP},
doi = {https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/1991/8836-unified-forecastclimate-model.pdf},
journal = {Meteorological Magazine},
number = {1449},
pages = {81--94},
title = {{The unified forecast/climate model}},
url = {https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/1991/8836-unified-forecastclimate-model.pdf},
volume = {122},
year = {1993}
}
@inproceedings{Cushman2004,
author = {Cushman, Gregory T.},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the International Commission on History of Meteorology 1.1},
pages = {65--74},
publisher = {International Commission on the History of Meteorology},
title = {{Enclave Vision: Foreign Networks in Peru and the Internationalization of El Ni{\~{n}}o Research during the 1920s}},
url = {https://journal.meteohistory.org/index.php/hom/article/download/14/14},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Dorries2006,
author = {D{\"{o}}rries, Matthias},
doi = {10.1525/hsps.2006.37.1.87},
issn = {08909997},
journal = {Historical Studies in the Physical and Biological Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {1},
pages = {87--125},
title = {{In the public eye: Volcanology and climate change studies in the 20th century}},
url = {http://hsns.ucpress.edu/cgi/doi/10.1525/hsps.2006.37.1.87},
volume = {37},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Dakos2008a,
author = {Dakos, V. and Scheffer, M. and van Nes, E. H. and Brovkin, V. and Petoukhov, V. and Held, H.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0802430105},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {38},
pages = {14308--14312},
title = {{Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0802430105},
volume = {105},
year = {2008}
}
@article{DalGesso2015,
author = {{Dal Gesso}, S. and Siebesma, A. P. and de Roode, S. R.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2398},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {688},
pages = {819--832},
title = {{Evaluation of low-cloud climate feedback through single-column model equilibrium states}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2398},
volume = {141},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Dangendorf2019,
abstract = {Previous studies reconstructed twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) from sparse tide-gauge records to understand whether the recent high rates obtained from satellite altimetry are part of a longer-term acceleration. However, these analyses used techniques that can only accurately capture either the trend or the variability in GMSL, but not both. Here we present an improved hybrid sea-level reconstruction during 1900–2015 that combines previous techniques at time scales where they perform best. We find a persistent acceleration in GMSL since the 1960s and demonstrate that this is largely ({\~{}}76{\%}) associated with sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic. We show that the initiation of the acceleration in the 1960s is tightly linked to an intensification and a basin-scale equatorward shift of Southern Hemispheric westerlies, leading to increased ocean heat uptake, and hence greater rates of GMSL rise, through changes in the circulation of the Southern Ocean.},
author = {Dangendorf, S{\"{o}}nke and Hay, Carling and Calafat, Francisco M. and Marcos, Marta and Piecuch, Christopher G. and Berk, Kevin and Jensen, J{\"{u}}rgen},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {705--710},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s}},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dansgaard1954,
abstract = {Fresh water of various origins as distinct from ocean water shows great variations in O 18-abundance. Proceeding from the temperate towards the colder climates a considerable decrease is noticeable. It is demonstrated that the O 18-abundance in atmospheric water �},
author = {Dansgaard, W},
doi = {10.1016/0016-7037(54)90003-4},
journal = {Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta},
number = {5-6},
pages = {241--260},
title = {{The O18-abundance in fresh water}},
volume = {6},
year = {1954}
}
@article{Dansgaard1969,
abstract = {A correlation of time with depth has been evaluated for the Camp Century, Greenland, 1390 meter deep ice core. Oxygen isotopes in approximately 1600 samples throughout the core have been analyzed. Long-term variations in the isotopic composition of the ice reflect the climatic changes during the past nearly 100,000 years. Climatic oscillations with periods of 120, 940, and 13,000 years are observed.},
author = {Dansgaard, W and Johnsen, S J and M{\"{o}}ller, J and Langway, C C},
doi = {10.1126/science.166.3903.377},
journal = {Science},
number = {3903},
pages = {377--380},
title = {{One thousand centuries of climatic record from Camp Century on the Greenland ice sheet}},
volume = {166},
year = {1969}
}
@article{10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0862.1,
abstract = {A comprehensive analysis of the representation of winter and summer Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in global climate simulations in both present and future climate is presented. Three generations of climate models are considered: CMIP3 (2007), CMIP5 (2012), and CMIP6 (2019). All models show common and extended underestimation of blocking frequencies, but a reduction of the negative biases in successive model generations is observed. However, in some specific regions and seasons such as the winter European sector, even CMIP6 models are not yet able to achieve the observed blocking frequency. For future decades the vast majority of models simulate a decrease of blocking frequency in both winter and summer, with the exception of summer blocking over the Urals and winter blocking over western North America. Winter predicted decreases may be even larger than currently estimated considering that models with larger blocking frequencies, and hence generally smaller errors, show larger reduction. Nonetheless, trends computed over the historical period are weak and often contrast with observations: this is particularly worrisome for summer Greenland blocking where models and observations significantly disagree. Finally, the intensity of global warming is related to blocking changes: wintertime European and North Pacific blocking are expected to decrease following larger global mean temperatures, while Ural summer blocking is expected to increase.},
author = {Davini, Paolo and D'Andrea, Fabio},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0862.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {23},
pages = {10021--10038},
title = {{From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0862.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Davis2010a,
abstract = {Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide–emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO 2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3°C (1.1° to 1.4°C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO 2 -emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives.},
author = {Davis, Steven J. and Caldeira, Ken and Matthews, H. Damon},
doi = {10.1126/science.1188566},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {sep},
number = {5997},
pages = {1330--1333},
title = {{Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1188566},
volume = {329},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Davy2017,
author = {Davy, Richard and Esau, Igor and Chernokulsky, Alexander and Outten, Stephen and Zilitinkevich, Sergej},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4688},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {79--93},
title = {{Diurnal asymmetry to the observed global warming}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4688},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dayrell2019,
abstract = {Given the crucial role of the mass media in influencing public
discourse, this study examines the discourses around climate change
within the Brazilian press, covering the time period of 2003-2013.
Survey evidence has shown that Brazilians' degree of concern about
climate change is higher than almost anywhere else, with nine out of 10
Brazilians considering climate change a serious problem. The primary
purpose of this study is to investigate how the press engendered
Brazilians' striking level of climate change concern, with special
attention to how the discourse developed over time. To this end, I
undertake a corpus-assisted discourse analysis to examine the most
dominant linguistic patterns in the discourse, presenting evidence on an
unprecedented scale and with considerable depth. The corpus consists of
19,686 newspaper texts (11.4 million words) published by 12 Brazilian
broadsheet papers. The results are interpreted in the light of available
opinion polls on the public's perception of climate change as well as
Brazil's national context and environmental governance.},
author = {Dayrell, Carmen},
doi = {10.1177/1750481318817620},
issn = {17504821},
journal = {Discourse and Communication},
keywords = {Brazil,climate change,corpus discourse analysis,global warming,media discourse,media representations},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {149--171},
title = {{Discourses around climate change in Brazilian newspapers: 2003–2013}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1750481318817620},
volume = {13},
year = {2019}
}
@article{DeBruijn2016,
author = {de Bruijn, K. M. and Lips, N. and Gersonius, B. and Middelkoop, H.},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-015-2074-2},
issn = {0921-030X},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {99--121},
title = {{The storyline approach: a new way to analyse and improve flood event management}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-015-2074-2},
volume = {81},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{IPCC2018,
author = {de Coninck, H. and Revi, A. and Babiker, M. and Bertoldi, P. and Buckeridge, M. and Cartwright, A. and Dong, W. and Ford, J. and Fuss, S. and Hourcade, J.-C. and Ley, D. and Mechler, R. and Newman, P. and Revokatova, A. and Schultz, S. and Steg, L. and Sugiyama, T. and {de Coninck, H., A. Revi, M. Babiker, P. Bertoldi, M. Buckeridge, A. Cartwright, W. Dong, J. Ford, S. Fuss, J.-C. Hourcade, D. Ley, R. Mechler, P. Newman, A. Revokatova, S. Schultz, L. Steg}, and T. Sugiyama},
booktitle = {Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,},
chapter = {4},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-4/},
editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P.R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and P{\'{e}}an, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M.I. and Lonnoy, E. and Maycock, T. and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.},
pages = {313--443},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-4/},
year = {2018}
}
@article{deJong2018,
annote = {Deep convection is a key process in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but because it acts at small scales, it remains poorly resolved by climate models. The occurrence of deep convection depends on weak initial stratification and strong surface buoyancy forcing, conditions that are satisfied in only a few ocean basins. In 2014, one of the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) global arrays was installed close to the Central Irminger Sea (CIS) and the Long-term Ocean Circulation Observations (LOCO) moorings in the central Irminger Sea. These programs' six moorings are located in the center of an area of deep convection and are distributed within a 50 km radius, thus offering detailed insight into spatial differences during the strong convection events that occurred during the winters of 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Deep mixed layers, down to approximately 1,600 m, formed during both winters. The properties of the convectively renewed water mass at each mooring converge to a common temperature and salinity before restratification sets in at the end of winter. The largest differences in onset (or timing) of convection and restratification are seen between the northernmost and southernmost moorings. High-resolution atmospheric reanalysis data show there is higher atmospheric forcing at the northernmost mooring due to a more favorable position with respect to the Greenland tip jet. Nevertheless, earlier onset, and more continuous cooling and deepening of mixed layers, occurs at the southernmost mooring, while convection at the northern mooring is frequently interrupted by warm events. We propose that these warm events are associated with eddies and filaments originating from the Irminger Current off the coast of Greenland and that convection further south benefits from cold inflow from the southwest.},
author = {de Jong, M Femke and Oltmanns, Marilena and Karstensen, Johannes and de Steur, Laura},
doi = {10.5670/oceanog.2018.109},
issn = {10428275},
journal = {Oceanography},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {50--59},
title = {{Deep Convection in the Irminger Sea Observed with a Dense Mooring Array}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.109 https://tos.org/oceanography/article/deep-convection-in-the-irminger-sea-observed-with-a-dense-mooring-array},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{acp-18-4935-2018,
author = {{De Mazi{\`{e}}re}, M and Thompson, A M and Kurylo, M J and Wild, J D and Bernhard, G and Blumenstock, T and Braathen, G O and Hannigan, J W and Lambert, J.-C. and Leblanc, T and McGee, T J and Nedoluha, G and Petropavlovskikh, I and Seckmeyer, G and Simon, P C and Steinbrecht, W and Strahan, S E},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-4935-2018},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {7},
pages = {4935--4964},
title = {{The Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC): history, status and perspectives}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/18/4935/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dee2011,
abstract = {ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF},
author = {Dee, D. P. and Uppala, S. M. and Simmons, A. J. and Berrisford, P. and Poli, P. and Kobayashi, S. and Andrae, U. and Balmaseda, M. A. and Balsamo, G. and Bauer, P. and Bechtold, P. and Beljaars, A. C.M. and van de Berg, L. and Bidlot, J. and Bormann, N. and Delsol, C. and Dragani, R. and Fuentes, M. and Geer, A. J. and Haimberger, L. and Healy, S. B. and Hersbach, H. and H{\'{o}}lm, E. V. and Isaksen, L. and K{\aa}llberg, P. and K{\"{o}}hler, M. and Matricardi, M. and Mcnally, A. P. and Monge-Sanz, B. M. and Morcrette, J. J. and Park, B. K. and Peubey, C. and de Rosnay, P. and Tavolato, C. and Th{\'{e}}paut, J. N. and Vitart, F.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.828},
isbn = {1477-870X},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {4D-Var,ERA-40,Forecast model,Hydrological cycle,Observations,Stratospheric circulation},
number = {656},
pages = {553--597},
pmid = {25657484},
title = {{The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system}},
volume = {137},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Dee2015,
author = {Dee, S. and Emile-Geay, J. and Evans, M. N. and Allam, A. and Steig, E. J. and Thompson, D.M.},
doi = {10.1002/2015MS000447},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {1220--1247},
title = {{PRYSM: An open-source framework for PRoxY System Modeling, with applications to oxygen-isotope systems}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015MS000447},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Dellink2017,
abstract = {Long-term economic scenarios (up to 2100) are needed as a basis to explore possible different futures for major environmental challenges, including climate change. Given the high level of uncertainty involved, such scenarios would need to span a wide range of possible growth trajectories. The recently developed storylines of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) provide a basis for making such projections. This paper describes a consistent methodology to derive (per capita) GDP trend pathways on a country basis. The methodology is based on a convergence process and places emphasis on the key drivers of economic growth in the long run: population, total factor productivity, physical capital, employment and human capital, and energy and fossil fuel resources (specifically oil and gas). The paper uses this methodology to derive country-level economic growth projections for 184 countries. The paper also investigates the influence of short-term growth rate estimates on the long-term income levels in various countries. It does so by comparing long-term projections based on short-term forecasts from 2011 with the projections based on forecasts from 2013. This highlights the effects of the recent economic crisis and uncertainty in short term developments on longer term growth trends. The projections are subject to large uncertainties, particularly for the later decades, and disregard a wide range of country-specific drivers of economic growth that are outside the narrow economic framework, such as external shocks, governance barriers and feedbacks from environmental damage. Hence, they should be interpreted with sufficient care and not be treated as predictions.},
author = {Dellink, Rob and Chateau, Jean and Lanzi, Elisa and Magn{\'{e}}, Bertrand},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {jan},
pages = {200--214},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378015000837 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378015000837},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Denniston2016a,
abstract = {The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial and marine biodiversity and home to 40{\%} of people on Earth. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1400–1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the LIA, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Here we show that the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted numerous times over multi-decadal to centennial scales during the last 3,000 yr. By integrating precisely-dated stalagmite records of tropical hydroclimate from southern China with a newly enhanced stalagmite time series from northern Australia, our study reveals a previously unidentified coherence between the austral and boreal summer monsoon. State-of-the-art climate model simulations of the last millennium suggest these are linked to changes in the structure of the regional manifestation of the atmosphere's meridional circulation.},
author = {Denniston, Rhawn F and Ummenhofer, Caroline C and Wanamaker, Alan D and Lachniet, Matthew S and Villarini, Gabriele and Asmerom, Yemane and Polyak, Victor J and Passaro, Kristian J and Cugley, John and Woods, David and Humphreys, William F},
doi = {10.1038/srep34485},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {34485},
title = {{Expansion and Contraction of the Indo-Pacific Tropical Rain Belt over the Last Three Millennia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/srep34485},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Deser2012,
author = {Deser, Clara and Knutti, Reto and Solomon, Susan and Phillips, Adam S.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1562},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {775--779},
title = {{Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1562},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Dessai2018,
author = {Dessai, Suraje and Bhave, Ajay and Birch, Cathryn and Conway, Declan and Garcia-Carreras, Luis and Gosling, John Paul and Mittal, Neha and Stainforth, David},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdd},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {074005},
title = {{Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=7/a=074005?key=crossref.9e76c6557d8d93b24e1cb707d973ef85},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dessler2018,
author = {Dessler, A. E. and Forster, P. M.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD028481},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {8634--8645},
title = {{An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018JD028481},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Detenber2016,
author = {Detenber, B. and Rosenthal, S. and Liao, Y. and Ho, S.},
journal = {International Journal of Communication},
pages = {4736--4758},
title = {{Audience Segmentation for Campaign Design: Addressing Climate Change in Singapore}},
url = {https://ijoc.org/index.php/ijoc/article/view/4696},
volume = {10},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Dewulf2013,
abstract = {The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially far‐reaching implications for the shape and success of adaptation projects. From the available literature on how the meaning of climate change adaptation is constructed and debated, three key dimensions of frame differences were identified: (1) the tension between adaptation and mitigation as two contrasting but interrelated perspectives on climate change; (2) the contrast between framing climate change adaptation as a tame technical problem, and framing climate change as a wicked problem of governance; and (3) the framing of climate change adaptation as a security issue, contrasting state security frames with human security frames. It is argued that the study of how climate change adaptation gets framed could be enriched by connecting these dimensions more closely with the following themes in framing research: (1) how decision‐making biases that to framing issues as structured technical problems; (2) the process of scale framing by which issues are situated at a particular scale level; and (3) the challenge of dealing with the variety of frames in adaptation processes.},
author = {Dewulf, Art},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.227},
issn = {17577799},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {321--330},
title = {{Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.227},
volume = {4},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Diffenbaugh2011,
author = {Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Scherer, Martin},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {615--624},
title = {{Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y},
volume = {107},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Diffenbaugh2019,
abstract = {Understanding the causes of economic inequality is critical for achieving equitable economic development. To investigate whether global warming has affected the recent evolution of inequality, we combine counterfactual historical temperature trajectories from a suite of global climate models with extensively replicated empirical evidence of the relationship between historical temperature fluctuations and economic growth. Together, these allow us to generate probabilistic country-level estimates of the influence of anthropogenic climate forcing on historical economic output. We find very high likelihood that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased economic inequality between countries. For example, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been reduced 17–31{\%} at the poorest four deciles of the population-weighted country-level per capita GDP distribution, yielding a ratio between the top and bottom deciles that is 25{\%} larger than in a world without global warming. As a result, although between-country inequality has decreased over the past half century, there is ∼90{\%} likelihood that global warming has slowed that decrease. The primary driver is the parabolic relationship between temperature and economic growth, with warming increasing growth in cool countries and decreasing growth in warm countries. Although there is uncertainty in whether historical warming has benefited some temperate, rich countries, for most poor countries there is {\textgreater}90{\%} likelihood that per capita GDP is lower today than if global warming had not occurred. Thus, our results show that, in addition to not sharing equally in the direct benefits of fossil fuel use, many poor countries have been significantly harmed by the warming arising from wealthy countries' energy consumption.},
author = {Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Burke, Marshall},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1816020116},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {20},
pages = {9808--9813},
title = {{Global warming has increased global economic inequality}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1816020116},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dittus,
author = {Dittus, Andrea J. and Hawkins, Ed and Wilcox, Laura J. and Sutton, Rowan T. and Smith, Christopher J. and Andrews, Martin B. and Forster, Piers M.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL085806},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {e2019GL085806},
title = {{Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085806},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{cp-14-1851-2018,
author = {Dolman, A M and Laepple, T},
doi = {10.5194/cp-14-1851-2018},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {12},
pages = {1851--1868},
title = {{Sedproxy: a forward model for sediment-archived climate proxies}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/14/1851/2018/},
volume = {14},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Doney2009,
author = {Doney, Scott C. and Fabry, Victoria J. and Feely, Richard A. and Kleypas, Joan A.},
doi = {10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834},
issn = {1941-1405},
journal = {Annual Review of Marine Science},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {169--192},
title = {{Ocean Acidification: The Other CO2 Problem}},
url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834},
volume = {1},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Donnelly2015,
author = {Donnelly, Jeffrey P. and Hawkes, Andrea D. and Lane, Philip and MacDonald, Dana and Shuman, Bryan N. and Toomey, Michael R. and van Hengstum, Peter J. and Woodruff, Jonathan D.},
doi = {10.1002/2014EF000274},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {49--65},
title = {{Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014EF000274},
volume = {3},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{Dooley2016,
abstract = {The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims to tackle the consequences of 'dangerous' climate impacts. 1 The Convention entered into effect in 1994, influenced by the dominant discourses of what might be termed 'the technological fix'and neo–liberalism, epitomized by market-based approaches, including the 'flexible mechanisms' of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol (KP). These mechanisms consisted of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), joint implementation (JI) and international emissions {\ldots}},
address = {London, UK},
annote = {Times cited: 13},
author = {Dooley, Kate and Parihar, Gita},
booktitle = {Governing the Climate Change Regime: Institutional Integrity and Integrity Systems},
doi = {10.4324/9781315442365},
editor = {Cadman, Tim and Maguire, Rowena and Sampford, Charles},
pages = {136--154},
publisher = {Routledge},
title = {{Human rights and equity: Governing values for the international climate regime}},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Dorigo2017a,
abstract = {Climate Data Records of soil moisture are fundamental for improving our understanding of long-term dynamics in the coupled water, energy, and carbon cycles over land. To respond to this need, in 2012 the European Space Agency (ESA) released the first multi-decadal, global satellite-observed soil moisture (SM) dataset as part of its Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. This product, named ESA CCI SM, combines various single-sensor active and passive microwave soil moisture products into three harmonised products: a merged ACTIVE, a merged PASSIVE, and a COMBINED active+passive microwave product. Compared to the first product release, the latest version of ESA CCI SM includes a large number of enhancements, incorporates various new satellite sensors, and extends its temporal coverage to the period 1978–2015. In this study, we first provide a comprehensive overview of the characteristics, evolution, and performance of the ESA CCI SM products. Based on original research and a review of existing literature we show that the product quality has steadily increased with each successive release and that the merged products generally outperform the single-sensor input products. Although ESA CCI SM generally agrees well with the spatial and temporal patterns estimated by land surface models and observed in-situ, we identify surface conditions (e.g., dense vegetation, organic soils) for which it still has large uncertainties. Second, capitalising on the results of {\textgreater}100 research studies that made use of the ESA CCI SM data we provide a synopsis of how it has contributed to improved process understanding in the following Earth system domains: climate variability and change, land-atmosphere interactions, global biogeochemical cycles and ecology, hydrological and land surface modelling, drought applications, and meteorology. While in some disciplines the use of ESA CCI SM is already widespread (e.g. in the evaluation of model soil moisture states) in others (e.g. in numerical weather prediction or flood forecasting) it is still in its infancy. The latter is partly related to current shortcomings of the product, e.g., the lack of near-real-time availability and data gaps in time and space. This study discloses the discrepancies between current ESA CCI SM product characteristics and the preferred characteristics of long-term satellite soil moisture products as outlined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and provides important directions for future ESA CCI SM product improvements to bridge these gaps.},
author = {Dorigo, Wouter and Wagner, Wolfgang and Albergel, Clement and Albrecht, Franziska and Balsamo, Gianpaolo and Brocca, Luca and Chung, Daniel and Ertl, Martin and Forkel, Matthias and Gruber, Alexander and Haas, Eva and Hamer, Paul D and Hirschi, Martin and Ikonen, Jaakko and de Jeu, Richard and Kidd, Richard and Lahoz, William and Liu, Yi Y and Miralles, Diego and Mistelbauer, Thomas and Nicolai-Shaw, Nadine and Parinussa, Robert and Pratola, Chiara and Reimer, Christoph and van der Schalie, Robin and Seneviratne, Sonia I and Smolander, Tuomo and Lecomte, Pascal},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.001},
issn = {0034-4257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {Biogeochemistry,Climate Data Record,Climate change,Earth observation,Earth system modelling,Essential Climate Variable,Microwave remote sensing,Soil moisture},
pages = {185--215},
title = {{ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding: State-of-the art and future directions}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425717303061},
volume = {203},
year = {2017}
}
@book{Douglas2009,
abstract = {The role of science in policymaking has gained unprecedented stature in the United States, raising questions about the place of science and scientific expertise in the democratic process. Some scientists have been given considerable epistemic authority in shaping policy on issues of great moral and cultural significance, and the politicizing of these issues has become highly contentious. Since World War II, most philosophers of science have purported the concept that science should be “value-free.” In Science, Policy and the Value-Free Ideal, Heather E. Douglas argues that such an ideal is neither adequate nor desirable for science. She contends that the moral responsibilities of scientists require the consideration of values even at the heart of science. She lobbies for a new ideal in which values serve an essential function throughout scientific inquiry, but where the role values play is constrained at key points, thus protecting the integrity and objectivity of science. In this vein, Douglas outlines a system for the application of values to guide scientists through points of uncertainty fraught with moral valence. Following a philosophical analysis of the historical background of science advising and the value-free ideal, Douglas defines how values should-and should not-function in science. She discusses the distinctive direct and indirect roles for values in reasoning, and outlines seven senses of objectivity, showing how each can be employed to determine the reliability of scientific claims. Douglas then uses these philosophical insights to clarify the distinction between junk science and sound science to be used in policymaking. In conclusion, she calls for greater openness on the values utilized in policymaking, and more public participation in the policymaking process, by suggesting various models for effective use of both the public and experts in key risk assessments.},
address = {Pittsburgh, PA, USA},
annote = {{\$}32.95
Used Price: {\$}27.65
Paperback},
author = {Douglas, Heather E.},
isbn = {9780822960263},
pages = {256},
publisher = {University of Pittsburgh Press},
title = {{Science, Policy, and the Value-Free Ideal}},
year = {2009}
}
@book{Douglass1919,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
annote = {Times cited: 580},
author = {Douglass, Andrew Ellicott},
pages = {126},
publisher = {Carnegie Institution of Washington},
title = {{Climatic cycles and tree-growth. A study of the annual rings of trees in relation to climate and solar activity}},
year = {1919}
}
@article{Douglass1922,
abstract = {{\ldots} can be read in the growth rings of trees, for the tree ring itself is a climatic product {\ldots} the moisturethey can use, as in north Europe about the Baltic Sea anct other wet climates, we look {\ldots} Thus, theArizona trees are related to the weather and the weather is related in a degree at least {\ldots}},
annote = {Times cited: 12},
author = {Douglass, Andrew Ellicott},
journal = {The Scientific Monthly},
number = {1},
pages = {5--21},
publisher = {JSTOR},
title = {{Some aspects of the use of the annual rings of trees in climatic study}},
url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/6253},
volume = {15},
year = {1922}
}
@article{Douglass1914,
abstract = {{\ldots} as exist in Arizona, is likely to be very different from one operating in moist climates and perpetually {\ldots}A basis for long distance prediction is now generally sought in climatic cycles {\ldots} a knowledge oftbe existing system is important, and so for the purpose of weather prediction we {\ldots}},
annote = {Times cited: 126},
author = {Douglass, Andrew E},
doi = {10.2307/201814},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Geographical Society},
number = {5},
pages = {321--335},
title = {{A method of estimating rainfall by the growth of trees}},
volume = {46},
year = {1914}
}
@book{Dove1853,
address = {London, UK},
annote = {1852},
author = {Dove, Heinrich Wilhelm},
keywords = {Atmospheric temperature},
pages = {27},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
title = {{The Distribution of Heat over the Surface of the Globe: Illustrated by Isothermal, Thermic Isabnormal, and Other Curves of Temperature}},
year = {1853}
}
@article{essd-10-1491-2018,
author = {Driemel, A and Augustine, J and Behrens, K and Colle, S and Cox, C and Cuevas-Agull{\'{o}}, E and Denn, F M and Duprat, T and Fukuda, M and Grobe, H and Haeffelin, M and Hodges, G and Hyett, N and Ijima, O and Kallis, A and Knap, W and Kustov, V and Long, C N and Longenecker, D and Lupi, A and Maturilli, M and Mimouni, M and Ntsangwane, L and Ogihara, H and Olano, X and Olefs, M and Omori, M and Passamani, L and Pereira, E B and Schmith{\"{u}}sen, H and Schumacher, S and Sieger, R and Tamlyn, J and Vogt, R and Vuilleumier, L and Xia, X and Ohmura, A and K{\"{o}}nig-Langlo, G},
doi = {10.5194/essd-10-1491-2018},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
number = {3},
pages = {1491--1501},
title = {{Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN): structure and data description (1992–2017)}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/1491/2018/},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Drijfhout2015a,
author = {Drijfhout, Sybren and Bathiany, Sebastian and Beaulieu, Claudie and Brovkin, Victor and Claussen, Martin and Huntingford, Chris and Scheffer, Marten and Sgubin, Giovanni and Swingedouw, Didier},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1511451112},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {43},
pages = {E5777--E5786},
title = {{Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1511451112},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Duan2019,
abstract = {Land surface temperature (LST) is an important physical quantity at the land-atmosphere interface. Since 2016 the Collection 6 (C6) MODIS LST product is publicly available, which includes three refinements over bare soil surfaces compared to the Collection 5 (C5) MODIS LST product. To encourage the use of the C6 MODIS LST product in a wide range of applications, it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the C6 MODIS LST product. In this study, we validated the C6 MODIS LST product using temperature-based method over various land cover types, including grasslands, croplands, cropland/natural vegetation mosaic, open shrublands, woody savannas, and barren/sparsely vegetated. In situ measurements were collected from various sites under different atmospheric and surface conditions, including seven SURFRAD sites (BND, TBL, DRA, FPK, GCM, PSU, and SXF) in the United States, three KIT sites (EVO, KAL, and GBB) in Portugal and Namibia, and three HiWATER sites (GBZ, HZZ, and HMZ) in China. The spatial representativeness of the in situ measurements at each site was separately evaluated during daytime and nighttime using all available clear-sky ASTER LST products at 90 m spatial resolution. Only six sites during daytime are selected as sufficiently homogeneous sites despite the usually high spatial thermal heterogeneity, whereas during nighttime most sites can be considered to be thermally homogeneous and have similar LST and air temperature. The C6 MODIS LST product was validated using in situ measurements from the selected homogeneous sites during daytime and nighttime: except for the GBB site, large RMSE values ({\textgreater}2 K) were obtained during daytime. However, if only satellite LST with a high spatial thermal homogeneity on the MODIS pixel scale are used for LST validation, the best daytime accuracy (RMSE {\textless}1.3 K) for the C6 MODIS LST product is achieved over the BND and DRA sites. Except for the DRA site, the RMSE values during nighttime are {\textless}2 K at the selected homogeneous sites. Furthermore, the accuracy of the C6 MODIS LST product was compared with that of the C5 MODIS LST product during nighttime at the selected homogeneous sites. Except for the GBB site, there are only small differences ({\textless}0.4 K) between the RMSE values for the C5 and C6 MODIS LST products.},
author = {Duan, Si-Bo and Li, Zhao-Liang and Li, Hua and G{\"{o}}ttsche, Frank-M. and Wu, Hua and Zhao, Wei and Leng, Pei and Zhang, Xia and Coll, C{\'{e}}sar},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.020},
issn = {0034-4257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {In situ measurements,Land surface temperature,MODIS,Split-window algorithm,Temperature-based validation method},
pages = {16--29},
title = {{Validation of Collection 6 MODIS land surface temperature product using in situ measurements}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425719300756},
volume = {225},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dumitru2019,
abstract = {Reconstructing the evolution of sea level during past warmer epochs such as the Pliocene provides insight into the response of sea level and ice sheets to prolonged warming1. Although estimates of the global mean sea level (GMSL) during this time do exist, they vary by several tens of metres2–4, hindering the assessment of past and future ice-sheet stability. Here we show that during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, which was on average two to three degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial period5, the GMSL was about 16.2 metres higher than today owing to global ice-volume changes, and around 17.4 metres when thermal expansion of the oceans is included. During the even warmer Pliocene Climatic Optimum (about four degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels)6, our results show that the GMSL was 23.5 metres above the present level, with an additional 1.6 metres from thermal expansion. We provide six GMSL data points, ranging from 4.39 to 3.27 million years ago, that are based on phreatic overgrowths on speleothems from the western Mediterranean (Mallorca, Spain). This record is unique owing to its clear relationship to sea level, its reliable U–Pb ages and its long timespan, which allows us to quantify uncertainties on potential uplift. Our data indicate that ice sheets are very sensitive to warming and provide important calibration targets for future ice-sheet models7.},
author = {Dumitru, Oana A and Austermann, Jacqueline and Polyak, Victor J and Forn{\'{o}}s, Joan J and Asmerom, Yemane and Gin{\'{e}}s, Joaqu{\'{i}}n and Gin{\'{e}}s, Angel and Onac, Bogdan P},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1543-2},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7777},
pages = {233--236},
title = {{Constraints on global mean sea level during Pliocene warmth}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1543-2},
volume = {574},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dunlap2013,
abstract = {The conservative movement and especially its think tanks play a critical role in denying thereality and significance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), especially by manufacturinguncertainty over climate science. Books denying AGW are a crucial means of attacking climate scienceand scientists, and we examine the links between conservative think tanks (CTTs) and 108 climatechange denial books published through 2010. We find a strong link, albeit noticeably weaker for thegrowing number of self-published denial books. We also examine the national origins of the books andthe academic backgrounds of their authors or editors, finding that with the help of American CTTsclimate change denial has spread to several other nations and that an increasing portion of denialbooks are produced by individuals with no scientific training. It appears that at least 90{\%} ofdenial books do not undergo peer review, allowing authors or editors to recycle scientificallyunfounded claims that are then amplified by the conservative movement, media, and politicalelites. {\textcopyright} 2013 SAGE Publications.},
author = {Dunlap, Riley E. and Jacques, Peter J.},
doi = {10.1177/0002764213477096},
issn = {0002-7642},
journal = {American Behavioral Scientist},
keywords = {climate change denial,conservative movement,conservative think tanks,denial books},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {699--731},
title = {{Climate Change Denial Books and Conservative Think Tanks}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0002764213477096},
volume = {57},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Durack2018,
abstract = {A new initiative collects, archives, and documents climate forcing data sets to support coordinated modeling activities that study past, present, and future climates.},
author = {Durack, Paul and Taylor, Karl and Eyring, Veronika and Ames, Sasha and Hoang, Tony and Nadeau, Denis and Doutriaux, Charles and Stockhause, Martina and Gleckler, Peter},
doi = {10.1029/2018EO101751},
issn = {2324-9250},
journal = {Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union},
month = {jul},
title = {{Toward Standardized Data Sets for Climate Model Experimentation}},
url = {https://eos.org/project-updates/toward-standardized-data-sets-for-climate-model-experimentation},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dutton2015a,
author = {Dutton, A. and Carlson, A. E. and Long, A. J. and Milne, G. A. and Clark, P. U. and DeConto, R. and Horton, B. P. and Rahmstorf, S. and Raymo, M. E.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaa4019},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jul},
number = {6244},
pages = {aaa4019},
title = {{Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aaa4019},
volume = {349},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Easterling2016,
abstract = {We present an overview of practices and challenges related to the detection and attribution of observed changes in climate extremes. Detection is the identification of a statistically significant change in the extreme values of a climate variable over some period of time. Issues in detection discussed include data quality, coverage, and completeness. Attribution takes that detection of a change and uses climate model simulations to evaluate whether a cause can be assigned to that change. Additionally, we discuss a newer field of attribution, event attribution, where individual extreme events are analyzed for the express purpose of assigning some measure of whether that event was directly influenced by anthropogenic forcing of the climate system.},
author = {Easterling, David R. and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and Wehner, Michael F. and Sun, Liqiang},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.001},
isbn = {2212-0947},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Attribution,Detection,Extremes,Observed climate change},
pages = {17--27},
title = {{Detection and attribution of climate extremes in the observed record}},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ebita2011,
author = {Ebita, Ayataka and Kobayashi, Shinya and Ota, Yukinari and Moriya, Masami and Kumabe, Ryoji and Onogi, Kazutoshi and Harada, Yayoi and Yasui, Soichiro and Miyaoka, Kengo and Takahashi, Kiyotoshi and Kamahori, Hirotaka and Kobayashi, Chiaki and Endo, Hirokazu and Soma, Motomu and Oikawa, Yoshinori and Ishimizu, Takahisa},
doi = {10.2151/sola.2011-038},
journal = {SOLA},
pages = {149--152},
title = {{The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis “JRA-55”: An Interim Report}},
volume = {7},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Eby2013,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater} and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater} experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater} forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater} between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Eby, M. and Weaver, A. J. and Alexander, K. and Zickfeld, K. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Cimatoribus, A. A. and Crespin, E. and Drijfhout, S. S. and Edwards, N. R. and Eliseev, A. V. and Feulner, G. and Fichefet, T. and Forest, C. E. and Goosse, H. and Holden, P. B. and Joos, F. and Kawamiya, M. and Kicklighter, D. and Kienert, H. and Matsumoto, K. and Mokhov, I. I. and Monier, E. and Olsen, S. M. and Pedersen, J. O. P. and Perrette, M. and Philippon-Berthier, G. and Ridgwell, A. and Schlosser, A. and {Schneider von Deimling}, T. and Shaffer, G. and Smith, R. S. and Spahni, R. and Sokolov, A. P. and Steinacher, M. and Tachiiri, K. and Tokos, K. and Yoshimori, M. and Zeng, N. and Zhao, F.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {1111--1140},
title = {{Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity}},
url = {https://www.clim-past.net/9/1111/2013/},
volume = {9},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Eddy1976,
author = {Eddy, J. A.},
doi = {10.1126/science.192.4245.1189},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jun},
number = {4245},
pages = {1189--1202},
title = {{The Maunder Minimum}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.192.4245.1189},
volume = {192},
year = {1976}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.95,
abstract = {Abstract The history of climate modeling begins with conceptual models, followed in the 19th century by mathematical models of energy balance and radiative transfer, as well as simple analog models. Since the 1950s, the principal tools of climate science have been computer simulation models of the global general circulation. From the 1990s to the present, a trend toward increasingly comprehensive coupled models of the entire climate system has dominated the field. Climate model evaluation and intercomparison is changing modeling into a more standardized, modular process, presenting the potential for unifying research and operational aspects of climate science. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 128–139 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.95 This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture {\textgreater} Technological Aspects and Ideas Climate Models and Modeling {\textgreater} Knowledge Generation with Models},
author = {Edwards, Paul N},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.95},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {128--139},
title = {{History of climate modeling}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.95 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.95},
volume = {2},
year = {2011}
}
@book{Edwards2010,
address = {Cambridge. MA, USA},
author = {Edwards, Paul N},
isbn = {9780262013925},
keywords = {KI,cdi},
pages = {552},
publisher = {MIT Press},
title = {{A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming}},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Edwards2012,
author = {Edwards, Paul N.},
doi = {10.1177/0096340212451574},
issn = {0096-3402},
journal = {Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {28--40},
title = {{Entangled histories: Climate science and nuclear weapons research}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1177/0096340212451574},
volume = {68},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Ekholm1901,
abstract = {THIS paper is a revised and enlarged translation of a paper in Swedish, Om klimatets iindringar i geologisk och historisk tid samt deras orsaker,” published in Ymer (a journal edited by the Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geology), Stockholm, 1899, p. 353. It ...},
annote = {Times cited: 30},
author = {Ekholm, Nils},
doi = {10.1002/qj.49702711702},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
number = {117},
pages = {1--62},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{On the variations of the climate of the geological and historical past and their causes}},
url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49702711702/abstract},
volume = {27},
year = {1901}
}
@article{amt-10-549-2017,
author = {Eldering, A and O'Dell, C W and Wennberg, P O and Crisp, D and Gunson, M R and Viatte, C and Avis, C and Braverman, A and Castano, R and Chang, A and Chapsky, L and Cheng, C and Connor, B and Dang, L and Doran, G and Fisher, B and Frankenberg, C and Fu, D and Granat, R and Hobbs, J and Lee, R A M and Mandrake, L and McDuffie, J and Miller, C E and Myers, V and Natraj, V and O'Brien, D and Osterman, G B and Oyafuso, F and Payne, V H and Pollock, H R and Polonsky, I and Roehl, C M and Rosenberg, R and Schwandner, F and Smyth, M and Tang, V and Taylor, T E and To, C and Wunch, D and Yoshimizu, J},
doi = {10.5194/amt-10-549-2017},
journal = {Atmospheric Measurement Techniques},
number = {2},
pages = {549--563},
title = {{The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2: first 18 months of science data products}},
url = {https://www.atmos-meas-tech.net/10/549/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@book{Elliott2017,
abstract = {Book Description: The role of values in scientific research has become an important topic of discussion in both scholarly and popular debates. Pundits across the political spectrum worry that research on topics like climate change, evolutionary theory, vaccine safety, and genetically modified foods has become overly politicized. At the same time, it is clear that values play an important role in science by limiting unethical forms of research and by deciding what areas of research have the greatest relevance for society. Deciding how to distinguish legitimate and illegitimate influences of values in scientific research is a matter of vital importance. Recently, philosophers of science have written a great deal on this topic, but most of their work has been directed toward a scholarly audience. This book makes the contemporary philosophical literature on science and values accessible to a wide readership. It examines case studies from a variety of research areas, including climate science, anthropology, chemical risk assessment, ecology, neurobiology, biomedical research, and agriculture. These cases show that values have necessary roles to play in identifying research topics, choosing research questions, determining the aims of inquiry, responding to uncertainty, and deciding how to communicate information. Kevin Elliott focuses not just on describing roles for values but also on determining when their influences are actually appropriate. He emphasizes several conditions for incorporating values in a legitimate fashion, and highlights multiple strategies for fostering engagement between stakeholders so that value influences can be subjected to careful and critical scrutiny.},
address = {Oxford, UK},
annote = {{\$}105.00
Hardcover},
author = {Elliott, Kevin C},
isbn = {9780190260804},
pages = {224},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {{A Tapestry of Values: An Introduction to Values in Science}},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Emiliani1955,
abstract = {Oxygen isotopic analyses of pelagic Foraminifera from Atlantic, Caribbean, and Pacific deep-sea cores indicate that the temperature of superficial waters in the equatorial Atlantic and Caribbean underwent periodic oscillations during the Pleistocene with an amplitude of about 6{\&}{\#}xb0; C. The temperature record of the Pacific cores was much affected by local oceanographic conditions. Seven complete temperature cycles are shown by a Caribbean core. By extrapolating rates of sedimentation based on radiocarbon data, an age of about 280,000 years is obtained for the earliest temperature minimum. Correlation with continental events suggests that the earliest temperature minimum corresponds to the first major glaciation. The chronology of Pacific cores proposed by Arrhenius (1952) must be modified if correspondence with the chronology of Atlantic and Caribbean cores is desired. In one Pacific core which extends to the Pliocene, the 610-cm. level below top is believed to represent the Plio-Pleistocene boundary. About fifteen complete temperature cycles occur above this level, and the length of Pleistocene time is estimated at about 600,000 years. The so-called pre-G{\&}{\#}xfc;nzian stages appear to span a time interval about as long as the Giinz and post-Giinzian stages. A glacial lowering of sea-level of about 100 m. is indicated. Closely spaced samples from short pilot cores furnish a detailed temperature record for postglacial times. A continuous temperature increase from about 16,500 to about 6,000 years ago is indicated, followed by a small temperature decrease. The temperature maximum at about 6,000 years ago is correlated with the "Climatic Optimum." Isotopic analyses of calcareous benthonic Foraminifera show that the temperature of bottom water in the equatorial Pacific during glacial ages was similar to the present, but in the eastern equatorial Atlantic it was about 2.1{\&}{\#}xb0; C. lower. This difference resulted from the large amount of marine ice present in the North Atlantic. Interglacial bottom temperature in the equatorial Pacific was not more than about 0.8{\&}{\#}xb0; C. higher than glacial temperatures; interglacial data for the equatorial Atlantic are inconclusive with respect to temperature but indicate an influx of ice meltwater along the bottom larger than at present. Correspondence in time between temperature variations in the low latitudes, as shown by the cores, and glacial events in the high northern latitudes indicates close correspondence between glacial or interglacial phases and wet or dry phases, respectively. Good correlation exists between times of temperature minima as indicated by extrapolated rates of sedimentation and times of insolation minima in high northern latitudes. Control of world climate during the Pleistocene by insolation in the high northern latitudes is indicated. A retardation of about 5,000 years occurred between temperature and insolation cycles. Complete revision of current correlations between the insolation curve and continental events is necessary. The glacial epoch and its ages may be explained by a theory combining topographical and insolation effects. Conditions may be suitable for the beginning of a new ice age in about 10,000 years.},
author = {Emiliani, Cesare},
doi = {10.1086/626295},
isbn = {00221376},
issn = {0022-1376},
journal = {The Journal of Geology},
month = {nov},
number = {6},
pages = {538--578},
title = {{Pleistocene Temperatures}},
url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/626295},
volume = {63},
year = {1955}
}
@article{EPICACommunityMembers2006,
author = {{EPICA Community Members}},
doi = {10.1038/nature05301},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {nov},
number = {7116},
pages = {195--198},
title = {{One-to-one coupling of glacial climate variability in Greenland and Antarctica}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature05301},
volume = {444},
year = {2006}
}
@article{EPICACommunityMembers2004,
author = {{EPICA Community Members}},
doi = {10.1038/nature02599},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jun},
number = {6992},
pages = {623--628},
title = {{Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature02599},
volume = {429},
year = {2004}
}
@misc{ESGF2021,
author = {ESGF},
publisher = {Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)},
title = {{input4MIPs Data Search on Earth System Grid Federation}},
url = {https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/},
urldate = {2021-03-08},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Estrada2013,
abstract = {The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term. {\textcopyright} 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited.},
author = {Estrada, Francisco and Perron, Pierre and Mart{\'{i}}nez-L{\'{o}}pez, Benjam{\'{i}}n},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1999},
issn = {17520894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {Attribution,Climate,change mitigation},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1050--1055},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1999},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Evans2013,
author = {Evans, M.N. and Tolwinski-Ward, S.E. and Thompson, D.M. and Anchukaitis, K.J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
month = {sep},
pages = {16--28},
title = {{Applications of proxy system modeling in high resolution paleoclimatology}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379113002011},
volume = {76},
year = {2013}
}
@article{gmd-13-3383-2020,
author = {Eyring, V and Bock, L and Lauer, A and Righi, M and Schlund, M and Andela, B and Arnone, E and Bellprat, O and Br{\"{o}}tz, B and Caron, L.-P. and Carvalhais, N and Cionni, I and Cortesi, N and Crezee, B and Davin, E L and Davini, P and Debeire, K and de Mora, L and Deser, C and Docquier, D and Earnshaw, P and Ehbrecht, C and Gier, B K and Gonzalez-Reviriego, N and Goodman, P and Hagemann, S and Hardiman, S and Hassler, B and Hunter, A and Kadow, C and Kindermann, S and Koirala, S and Koldunov, N and Lejeune, Q and Lembo, V and Lovato, T and Lucarini, V and Massonnet, F and M{\"{u}}ller, B and Pandde, A and P{\'{e}}rez-Zan{\'{o}}n, N and Phillips, A and Predoi, V and Russell, J and Sellar, A and Serva, F and Stacke, T and Swaminathan, R and Torralba, V and Vegas-Regidor, J and von Hardenberg, J and Weigel, K and Zimmermann, K},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {7},
pages = {3383--3438},
title = {{Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3383/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Eyring2016,
abstract = {By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever- expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to re- vise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide com- munity consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP his- torical simulations (1850–near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of mod- els across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will fa- cilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characteriza- tion of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP- Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the sci- entific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participat- ing in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by in- dividual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of theWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: – How does the Earth system respond to forcing? – What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? – How can we assess future climate changes given inter- nal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and ra- tionale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.},
author = {Eyring, Veronika and Bony, Sandrine and Meehl, Gerald A. and Senior, Catherine A. and Stevens, Bjorn and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Taylor, Karl E.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016},
isbn = {1991-9603},
issn = {19919603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {5},
pages = {1937--1958},
title = {{Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization}},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Eyring2019,
author = {Eyring, Veronika and Cox, Peter M. and Flato, Gregory M. and Gleckler, Peter J. and Abramowitz, Gab and Caldwell, Peter and Collins, William D. and Gier, Bettina K. and Hall, Alex D. and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Hurtt, George C. and Jahn, Alexandra and Jones, Chris D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Krasting, John P. and Kwiatkowski, Lester and Lorenz, Ruth and Maloney, Eric and Meehl, Gerald A. and Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Pincus, Robert and Ruane, Alex C. and Russell, Joellen L. and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Sherwood, Steven C. and Simpson, Isla R. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Williamson, Mark S.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {102--110},
title = {{Taking climate model evaluation to the next level}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0355-y},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@book{Faria2018,
address = {Berlin and Heidelberg, Germany},
author = {Faria, S.H. and Kipfstuhl, S. and Lambrecht, A.},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-662-55308-4},
isbn = {978-3-662-55308-4},
pages = {305},
publisher = {Springer-Verlag},
title = {{The EPICA-DML Deep Ice Core: A Visual Record}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Faria2014a,
abstract = {An important feature of natural ice, in addition to the obvious relevance of glaciers and ice sheets for climate-related issues, is its ability to creep on geological time scales and low deviatoric stresses at temperatures very close to its melting point, without losing its polycrystalline character. This fact, together with its strong mechanical anisotropy and other notable properties, makes natural ice an interesting model material for studying the high-temperature creep and recrystallization of rocks in Earth's interior. After having reviewed the major contributions of deep ice coring to the research on natural ice microstructures in Part I of this work (Faria etal., 2014), here in Part II we present an up-to-date view of the modern understanding of natural ice microstructures and the deformation processes that may produce them. In particular, we analyze a large body of evidence that reveals fundamental flaws in the widely accepted tripartite paradigm of polar ice microstructure (also known as the "three-stage model," cf. Part I). These results prove that grain growth in ice sheets is dynamic, in the sense that it occurs during deformation and is markedly affected by the stored strain energy, as well as by air inclusions and other impurities. The strong plastic anisotropy of the ice lattice gives rise to high internal stresses and concentrated strain heterogeneities in the polycrystal, which demand large amounts of strain accommodation. From the microstructural analyses of ice cores, we conclude that the formation of many and diverse subgrain boundaries and the splitting of grains by rotation recrystallization are the most fundamental mechanisms of dynamic recovery and strain accommodation in polar ice. Additionally, in fine-grained, high-impurity ice layers (e.g. cloudy bands), strain may sometimes be accommodated by diffusional flow (at low temperatures and stresses) or microscopic grain boundary sliding via microshear (in anisotropic ice sheared at high temperatures). Grain boundaries bulged by migration recrystallization and subgrain boundaries are endemic and very frequent at almost all depths in ice sheets. Evidence of nucleation of new grains is also observed at various depths, provided that the local concentration of strain energy is high enough (which is not seldom the case). As a substitute for the tripartite paradigm, we propose a novel dynamic recrystallization diagram in the three-dimensional state space of strain rate, temperature, and mean grain size, which summarizes the various competing recrystallization processes that contribute to the evolution of the polar ice microstructure. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier Ltd.},
author = {Faria, S{\'{e}}rgio H. and Weikusat, Ilka and Azuma, Nobuhiko},
doi = {10.1016/j.jsg.2013.11.003},
issn = {01918141},
journal = {Journal of Structural Geology},
keywords = {Creep,Fabric,Glacier,Grain growth,Ice,Ice sheet,Mechanics,Microstructure,Recrystallization,Texture},
month = {apr},
pages = {21--49},
title = {{The microstructure of polar ice. Part II: State of the art}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0191814113002009},
volume = {61},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Fawcett2015,
author = {Fawcett, A. A. and Iyer, G. C. and Clarke, L. E. and Edmonds, J. A. and Hultman, N. E. and McJeon, H. C. and Rogelj, J. and Schuler, R. and Alsalam, J. and Asrar, G. R. and Creason, J. and Jeong, M. and McFarland, J. and Mundra, A. and Shi, W.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aad5761},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {dec},
number = {6265},
pages = {1168--1169},
title = {{Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aad5761},
volume = {350},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Feng2014,
author = {Feng, Song and Hu, Qi and Huang, Wei and Ho, Chang-Hoi and Li, Ruopu and Tang, Zhenghong},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.11.002},
issn = {0921-8181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {CMIP5,Global warming,K{\"{o}}ppen–Trewartha climate classification,RCP scenarios},
pages = {41--52},
title = {{Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113002403},
volume = {112},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Feng2020a,
author = {Feng, Leyang and Smith, Steven J. and Braun, Caleb and Crippa, Monica and Gidden, Matthew J. and Hoesly, Rachel and Klimont, Zbigniew and van Marle, Margreet and van den Berg, Maarten and van der Werf, Guido R.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-461-2020},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {461--482},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{The generation of gridded emissions data for CMIP6}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/461/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ferraro2015,
author = {Ferraro, Robert and Waliser, Duane E. and Gleckler, Peter and Taylor, Karl E. and Eyring, Veronika},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00216.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {ES131--ES133},
title = {{Evolving Obs4MIPs to Support Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00216.1},
volume = {96},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Ferrel1856,
author = {Ferrel, William},
journal = {Nashville Journal of Medicine and Surgery},
number = {4-5},
pages = {287--301,375--389},
title = {{An Essay on the Winds and Currents of the Ocean}},
volume = {11},
year = {1856}
}
@article{Feulner2010,
abstract = {The current exceptionally long minimum of solar activity has led to the suggestion that the Sun might experience a new grand minimum in the next decades, a prolonged period of low activity similar to the Maunder minimum in the late 17th century. The Maunder minimum is connected to the Little Ice Age, a time of markedly lower temperatures, in particular in the Northern hemisphere. Here we use a coupled climate model to explore the effect of a 21st-century grand minimum on future global temperatures, finding a moderate temperature offset of no more than −0.3°C in the year 2100 relative to a scenario with solar activity similar to recent decades. This temperature decrease is much smaller than the warming expected from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century.},
author = {Feulner, Georg and Rahmstorf, Stefan},
doi = {10.1029/2010GL042710},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {L05707},
title = {{On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2010GL042710},
volume = {37},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Fiedler2017,
abstract = {Abstract Despite efforts to accurately quantify the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol, the historical evolution of ERF remains uncertain. As a further step toward a better understanding of ERF uncertainty, the present study systematically investigates the sensitivity of the shortwave ERF at the top of the atmosphere to model-internal variability and spatial distributions of the monthly mean radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosol. For this, ensembles are generated with the atmospheric model ECHAM6.3 that uses monthly prescribed optical properties and changes in cloud-droplet number concentrations designed to mimic that associated with the anthropogenic aerosol using the new parameterization MACv2-SP. The results foremost highlight the small change in our best estimate of the global averaged all-sky ERF associated with a substantially different pattern of anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects from the mid-1970s (?0.51 Wm?2) and present day (?0.50 Wm?2). Such a small change in ERF is difficult to detect when model-internal year-to-year variability (0.32 Wm?2 standard deviation) is considered. A stable estimate of all-sky ERF requires ensemble simulations, the size of which depends on the targeted precision, confidence level, and the magnitude of model-internal variability. A larger effect of the pattern of the anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects on the globally averaged all-sky ERF (15{\%}) occurs with a strong Twomey effect through lowering the background aerosol optical depth in regions downstream of major pollution sources. It suggests that models with strong aerosol-cloud interactions could show a moderate difference in the global mean ERF associated with the mid-1970s to present-day change in the anthropogenic aerosol pattern.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/2017MS000932},
author = {Fiedler, S and Stevens, B and Mauritsen, T},
doi = {10.1002/2017MS000932},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {CMIP6,ECHAM,Twomey effect,anthropogenic aerosol,natural variability,radiative forcing},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {1325--1341},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{On the sensitivity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing to model-internal variability and parameterizing a Twomey effect}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS000932},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Fischer2013b,
author = {Fischer, E M and Beyerle, U and Knutti, R},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2051},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
pages = {1033},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2051 http://10.0.4.14/nclimate2051 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2051{\#}supplementary-information},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Fischer2014,
author = {Fischer, E. M. and Sedl{\'{a}}{\v{c}}ek, J. and Hawkins, E. and Knutti, R.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL062018},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {8554--8562},
title = {{Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL062018},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Fischer2018,
author = {Fischer, Hubertus and Meissner, Katrin J. and Mix, Alan C. and Abram, Nerilie J. and Austermann, Jacqueline and Brovkin, Victor and Capron, Emilie and Colombaroli, Daniele and Daniau, Anne-Laure and Dyez, Kelsey A. and Felis, Thomas and Finkelstein, Sarah A. and Jaccard, Samuel L. and McClymont, Erin L. and Rovere, Alessio and Sutter, Johannes and Wolff, Eric W. and Affolter, St{\'{e}}phane and Bakker, Pepijn and Ballesteros-C{\'{a}}novas, Juan Antonio and Barbante, Carlo and Caley, Thibaut and Carlson, Anders E. and Churakova, Olga and Cortese, Giuseppe and Cumming, Brian F. and Davis, Basil A. S. and de Vernal, Anne and Emile-Geay, Julien and Fritz, Sherilyn C. and Gierz, Paul and Gottschalk, Julia and Holloway, Max D. and Joos, Fortunat and Kucera, Michal and Loutre, Marie-France and Lunt, Daniel J. and Marcisz, Katarzyna and Marlon, Jennifer R. and Martinez, Philippe and Masson-Delmotte, Valerie and Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph and Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. and Raible, Christoph C. and Risebrobakken, Bj{\o}rg and {S{\'{a}}nchez Go{\~{n}}i}, Mar{\'{i}}a F. and Arrigo, Jennifer Saleem and Sarnthein, Michael and Sjolte, Jesper and Stocker, Thomas F. and {Velasquez Alv{\'{a}}rez}, Patricio A. and Tinner, Willy and Valdes, Paul J. and Vogel, Hendrik and Wanner, Heinz and Yan, Qing and Yu, Zicheng and Ziegler, Martin and Zhou, Liping},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {474--485},
title = {{Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0146-0},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Fischer2018a,
author = {Fischer, E. M. and Beyerle, U. and Schleussner, C. F. and King, A. D. and Knutti, R.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079176},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {8500--8509},
title = {{Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL079176},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Fischlin2017,
address = {Oxford, UK},
author = {Fischlin, A},
booktitle = {The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Analysis and Commentary},
editor = {Klein, Daniel and Carazo, Mar{\'{i}}a P{\'{i}}a and Doelle, Meinhard and Bulmer, Jane and Higham, Andrew},
isbn = {9780198789338},
pages = {3--16},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {{Background and role of science}},
url = {https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-paris-agreement-on-climate-change-9780198789338},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Fisher2017,
abstract = {Abstract The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR020175},
author = {Fisher, Joshua B and Melton, Forrest and Middleton, Elizabeth and Hain, Christopher and Anderson, Martha and Allen, Richard and McCabe, Matthew F and Hook, Simon and Baldocchi, Dennis and Townsend, Philip A and Kilic, Ayse and Tu, Kevin and Miralles, Diego D and Perret, Johan and Lagouarde, Jean-Pierre and Waliser, Duane and Purdy, Adam J and French, Andrew and Schimel, David and Famiglietti, James S and Stephens, Graeme and Wood, Eric F},
doi = {10.1002/2016WR020175},
issn = {0043-1397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {agriculture,climate,ecosystem,evapotranspiration,global,satellite,water resources},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {2618--2626},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The future of evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR020175},
volume = {53},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Fløttum2017,
author = {Fl{\o}ttum, Kjersti and Gjerstad, {\O}yvind},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.429},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {e429},
title = {{Narratives in climate change discourse}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.429},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Flato2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Flato, G and Marotzke, J and Abiodun, B and Braconnot, P and Chou, S C and Collins, W and Cox, P and Driouech, F and Emori, S and Eyring, V and Forest, C and Gleckler, P and Guilyardi, E and Jakob, C and Kattsov, V and Reason, C and Rummukainen, M},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {9},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.020},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {741--866},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Evaluation of Climate Models}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/wcc.148,
abstract = {Abstract Earth System models (ESMs) are global climate models with the added capability to explicitly represent biogeochemical processes that interact with the physical climate and so alter its response to forcing such as that associated with human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases. Representing the global carbon cycle allows for feedbacks between the physical climate and the biological and chemical processes in the ocean and on land that take up some of the emitted carbon dioxide and so act to reduce warming. The sulfur cycle is also important in that both natural and human emissions of sulfur contribute to the production of sulfate aerosols which reflect incoming solar radiation (a direct cooling effect) and alter cloud properties (an indirect cooling effect). Other components such as ozone are also being incorporated into some ESMs. Evaluating the physical component of an ESM is becoming increasingly comprehensive and sophisticated, but the evaluation of the biogeochemical components suffer somewhat from a lack of comprehensive global-scale observational data. Nevertheless, such models provide valuable insight into climate variability and change, and the role of human activities and possible mitigation actions on future climate change. Internationally coordinated experiments are increasingly important in providing a multimodel ensemble of climate simulations, thereby taking advantage of some ‘cancellation of errors' and allowing better quantification of uncertainty. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:783–800. doi: 10.1002/wcc.148 This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling {\textgreater} Earth System Models},
author = {Flato, Gregory},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.148},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
number = {6},
pages = {783--800},
title = {{Earth system models: an overview}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.148},
volume = {2},
year = {2011}
}
@book{Fleming2007,
address = {Boston, MA, USA},
annote = {James Rodger Fleming
ill. ; 24 cm
The early years to 1930 -- A family man -- Steam engineering -- Defense work -- Global warming and anthropogenic CO?b2?s -- Callendar's legacy},
author = {Fleming, James R.},
isbn = {978-1-878220-76-9},
keywords = {1898-1964,Atmospheric carbon dioxide,Callendar,Engineers Great Britain,Global warming,Guy Stewart,Scientists Great Britain},
pages = {155},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society (AMS)},
title = {{The Callendar Effect: The Life and Work of Guy Stewart Callendar (1898–1964), the Scientist Who Established the Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change}},
year = {2007}
}
@book{Fleming1998a,
address = {New York, NY, USA and Oxford, UK},
author = {Fleming, James Rodger},
isbn = {0-19-518973-6},
keywords = {Climatic changes Europe History.,Climatic changes United States History.,Global environmental change History.},
pages = {194},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {{Historical Perspectives on Climate Change}},
year = {1998}
}
@incollection{Fleurbaey2014,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Fleurbaey, M. and Kartha, S. and Bolwig, S. and Chee, Y. L. and Chen, Y. and Corbera, E. and Lecocq, F. and Lutz, W. and Muylaert, M. S. and Norgaard, R. B. and Okereke, C. and Sagar, A. D.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415416.010},
editor = {Edenhofer, O. and Pichs-Madruga, R. and Sokona, Y. and Farahani, E. and Kadner, S. and Seyboth, K. and Adler, A. and Baum, I. and Brunner, S. and Eickemeier, P. and Kriemann, B. and Savolainen, J. and Schl{\"{o}}mer, S. and von Stechow, C. and Zwickel, T. and Minx, J.C.},
isbn = {9781107058217},
pages = {283--350},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Sustainable Development and Equity}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Foelsche2008,
author = {Foelsche, Ulrich and Kirchengast, Gottfried and Steiner, Andrea K. and Kornblueh, Luis and Manzini, Elisa and Bengtsson, Lennart},
doi = {10.1029/2007JD009231},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jun},
number = {D11},
pages = {D11108},
title = {{An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occultation data: Setup and test bed study}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2007JD009231},
volume = {113},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Foote1856,
author = {Foote, Eunice},
journal = {The American Journal of Science and Arts},
number = {65},
pages = {382--383},
title = {{Circumstances affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays}},
volume = {22},
year = {1856}
}
@article{Forster2020,
author = {Forster, Piers M. and Forster, Harriet I. and Evans, Mat J. and Gidden, Matthew J. and Jones, Chris D. and Keller, Christoph A. and Lamboll, Robin D. and Qu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}, Corinne Le and Rogelj, Joeri and Rosen, Deborah and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Richardson, Thomas B. and Smith, Christopher J. and Turnock, Steven T.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {2,Atmospheric chemistry,Climate,Climate and Earth system modelling,CoV,Projection and prediction,SARS,change mitigation},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {913--919},
title = {{Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0883-0},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Forster2013,
author = {Forster, Piers M. and Andrews, Timothy and Good, Peter and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Jackson, Lawrence S. and Zelinka, Mark},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50174},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1139--1150},
title = {{Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50174},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Foster2017b,
author = {Foster, Gavin L and Royer, Dana L and Lunt, Daniel J},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms14845},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {apr},
pages = {14845},
publisher = {The Author(s)},
title = {{Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14845 http://10.0.4.14/ncomms14845 https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14845{\#}supplementary-information},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@book{Fourier1822,
address = {Paris, France},
author = {Fourier, Jean Baptiste Joseph},
keywords = {Heat},
pages = {639},
publisher = {Firmin Didot},
title = {{Th{\'{e}}orie Analytique de la Chaleur}},
year = {1822}
}
@article{Fowle1917,
author = {Fowle, Frederick E},
journal = {Smithsonian Miscellaneous Collections},
number = {8},
pages = {1--68},
title = {{Water-Vapor Transparency to Low-Temperature Radiation}},
url = {https://repository.si.edu/handle/10088/23570},
volume = {68},
year = {1917}
}
@article{Frolicher2015,
author = {Fr{\"{o}}licher, Thomas L and Paynter, David J},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075002},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {075002},
title = {{Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=7/a=075002?key=crossref.8cb7d3783a439ed998be56b6dce26f25},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@book{Frakes1992,
address = {Cambridge, UK},
author = {Frakes, Lawrence A. and Francis, Jane E. and Syktus, Jozef I.},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9780511628948},
pages = {274},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate modes of the Phanerozoic}},
year = {1992}
}
@article{Frame2017,
author = {Frame, Dave and Joshi, Manoj and Hawkins, Ed and Harrington, Luke J. and de Roiste, Mairead},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3297},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {6},
pages = {407},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3297 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3297 http://10.0.4.14/nclimate3297 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3297{\#}supplementary-information},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Frame2020,
abstract = {Hurricane Harvey is one of the costliest tropical cyclones in history. In this paper, we use a probabilistic event attribution framework to estimate the costs associated with Hurricane Harvey that are attributable to anthropogenic influence on the climate system. Results indicate that the “fraction of attributable risk” for the rainfall from Harvey was likely about at least a third with a preferable/best estimate of three quarters. With an average estimate of damages from Harvey assessed at about US{\$}90bn, applying this fraction gives a best estimate of US{\$}67bn, with a likely lower bound of at least US{\$}30bn, of these damages that are attributable to the human influence on climate. This “bottom-up” event-based estimate of climate change damages contrasts sharply with the more “top-down” approach using integrated assessment models (IAMs) or global macroeconometric estimates: one IAM estimates annual climate change damages in the USA to be in the region of US{\$}21.3bn. While the two approaches are not easily comparable, it is noteworthy that our “bottom-up” results estimate that one single extreme weather event contributes more to climate change damages in the USA than an entire year by the “top-down” method. Given that the “top-down” approach, at best, parameterizes but does not resolve the effects of extreme weather events, our findings suggest that the “bottom-up” approach is a useful avenue to pursue in future attempts to refine estimates of climate change damages.},
author = {Frame, David and Wehner, Michael F. and Noy, Ilan and Rosier, Suzanne M.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02692-8},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Economic cost,Event Attribution,Hurricane Harvey},
number = {2},
pages = {271--281},
publisher = {Climatic Change},
title = {{The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change}},
volume = {160},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Franke2017,
abstract = {Climatic variations at decadal scales such as phases of accelerated warming or weak monsoons have profound effects on society and economy. Studying these variations requires insights from the past. However, most current reconstructions provide either time series or fields of regional surface climate, which limit our understanding of the underlying dynamics. Here, we present the first monthly paleo-reanalysis covering the period 1600 to 2005. Over land, instrumental temperature and surface pressure observations, temperature indices derived from historical documents and climate sensitive tree-ring measurements were assimilated into an atmospheric general circulation model ensemble using a Kalman filtering technique. This data set combines the advantage of traditional reconstruction methods of being as close as possible to observations with the advantage of climate models of being physically consistent and having 3-dimensional information about the state of the atmosphere for various variables and at all points in time. In contrast to most statistical reconstructions, centennial variability stems from the climate model and its forcings, no stationarity assumptions are made and error estimates are provided.},
author = {Franke, J{\"{o}}rg and Br{\"{o}}nnimann, Stefan and Bhend, Jonas and Brugnara, Yuri},
doi = {10.1038/sdata.2017.76},
issn = {2052-4463},
journal = {Scientific Data},
number = {1},
pages = {170076},
title = {{A monthly global paleo-reanalysis of the atmosphere from 1600 to 2005 for studying past climatic variations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.76},
volume = {4},
year = {2017}
}
@article{FrappartF.;Ramillien2018,
author = {Frappart, F. and Ramillien, G},
doi = {10.3390/rs10060829},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
number = {6},
pages = {829},
title = {{Monitoring Groundwater Storage Changes Using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Satellite Mission: A Review}},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Freeman2017,
abstract = {We highlight improvements to the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) in the latest Release 3.0 (R3.0; covering 1662–2014). ICOADS is the most widely used freely available collection of surface marine observations, providing data for the construction of gridded analyses of sea surface temperature, estimates of air–sea interaction and other meteorological variables. ICOADS observations are assimilated into all major atmospheric, oceanic and coupled reanalyses, further widening its impact. R3.0 therefore includes changes designed to enable effective exchange of information describing data quality between ICOADS, reanalysis centres, data set developers, scientists and the public. These user-driven innovations include the assignment of a unique identifier (UID) to each marine report – to enable tracing of observations, linking with reports and improved data sharing. Other revisions and extensions of the ICOADS' International Maritime Meteorological Archive common data format incorporate new near-surface oceanographic data elements and cloud parameters. Many new input data sources have been assembled, and updates and improvements to existing data sources, or removal of erroneous data, made. Coupled with enhanced ‘preliminary' monthly data and product extensions past 2014, R3.0 provides improved support of climate assessment and monitoring, reanalyses and near-real-time applications.},
author = {Freeman, Eric and Woodruff, Scott D. and Worley, Steven J. and Lubker, Sandra J. and Kent, Elizabeth C. and Angel, William E. and Berry, David I. and Brohan, Philip and Eastman, Ryan and Gates, Lydia and Gloeden, Wolfgang and Ji, Zaihua and Lawrimore, Jay and Rayner, Nick A. and Rosenhagen, Gudrun and Smith, Shawn R.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4775},
isbn = {1097-0088},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {buoy data,humidity,marine meteorological data,metadata,ocean,sea-level pressure,sea-surface temperature,ship data},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {2211--2232},
title = {{ICOADS Release 3.0: a major update to the historical marine climate record}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4775},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Freund2019a,
abstract = {El Ni{\~{n}}o events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Ni{\~{n}}o events have sea surface temperature anomalies that are strongest in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas peak ocean warming occurs further west during Central Pacific El Ni{\~{n}}o events. The event types differ in their impacts on the location and intensity of temperature and precipitation anomalies globally. Evidence is emerging that Central Pacific El Ni{\~{n}}o events have become more common, a trend that is projected by some studies to continue with ongoing climate change. Here we identify spatial and temporal patterns in observed sea surface temperatures that distinguish the evolution of Eastern and Central Pacific El Ni{\~{n}}o events in the tropical Pacific. We show that these patterns are recorded by a network of 27 seasonally resolved coral records, which we then use to reconstruct Central and Eastern Pacific El Ni{\~{n}}o activity for the past four centuries. We find a simultaneous increase in Central Pacific events and a decrease in Eastern Pacific events since the late twentieth century that leads to a ratio of Central to Eastern Pacific events that is unusual in a multicentury context. Compared to the past four centuries, the most recent 30 year period includes fewer, but more intense, Eastern Pacific El Ni{\~{n}}o events.},
author = {Freund, Mandy B and Henley, Benjamin J and Karoly, David J and McGregor, Helen V and Abram, Nerilie J and Dommenget, Dietmar},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0353-3},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {6},
pages = {450--455},
title = {{Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Ni{\~{n}}o events in recent decades relative to past centuries}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0353-3},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Friedlingstein2014,
author = {Friedlingstein, Pierre and Meinshausen, Malte and Arora, Vivek K. and Jones, Chris D. and Anav, Alessandro and Liddicoat, Spencer K. and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00579.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {511--526},
title = {{Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00579.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Frieler2012,
abstract = {AbstractA new approach to probabilistic projections of regional climate change is introduced. It builds on the already established quasi-linear relation between global-mean temperature and regional climate change found in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The new approach simultaneously 1) takes correlations between temperature- and precipitation-related uncertainty distributions into account, 2) enables the inclusion of predictors other than global-mean temperature, and 3) checks for the interscenario and interrun variability of the scaling relationships. This study tests the effectiveness of SOx and black carbon emissions and greenhouse gas forcings as additional predictors of precipitation changes. The future precipitation response is found to deviate substantially from the linear relationship with global-mean temperature change in some regions; thereby, the two main limitations of a simple linear scaling approach, namely having to rely on exogenous aerosol experiments (or ignoring ...},
author = {Frieler, Katja and Meinshausen, Malte and Mengel, Matthias and Braun, Nadine and Hare, William and Frieler, Katja and Meinshausen, Malte and Mengel, Matthias and Braun, Nadine and Hare, William},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00199.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate prediction,Ensembles,Model output statistics,Precipitation,Regression analysis,Statistical techniques},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3117--3144},
title = {{A Scaling Approach to Probabilistic Assessment of Regional Climate Change}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00199.1},
volume = {25},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Fu1994,
author = {Fu, Lee-Lueng and Christensen, Edward J. and Yamarone, Charles A. and Lefebvre, Michel and M{\'{e}}nard, Yves and Dorrer, Michel and Escudier, Philippe},
doi = {10.1029/94JC01761},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
month = {dec},
number = {C12},
pages = {24369},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{TOPEX/POSEIDON mission overview}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/94JC01761},
volume = {99},
year = {1994}
}
@article{Fujimori2019,
abstract = {The costs of climate change mitigation policy are one of the main concerns in decarbonizing the economy. The macroeconomic and sectoral implications of policy interventions are typically estimated by economic models, which tend be higher than the additional energy system costs projected by energy system models. Here, we show the extent to which policy costs can be lower than those from conventional economic models by integrating an energy system and an economic model, applying Japan's mid-century climate mitigation target. The GDP losses estimated with the integrated model were significantly lower than those in the conventional economic model by more than 50{\%} in 2050. The representation of industry and service sector energy consumption is the main factor causing these differences. Our findings suggest that this type of integrated approach would contribute new insights by providing improved estimates of GDP losses, which can be critical information for setting national climate policies.},
author = {Fujimori, Shinichiro and Oshiro, Ken and Shiraki, Hiroto and Hasegawa, Tomoko},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-12730-4},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {4737},
title = {{Energy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12730-4},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Fuss2018,
author = {Fuss, Sabine and Lamb, William F and Callaghan, Max W and Hilaire, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Creutzig, Felix and Amann, Thorben and Beringer, Tim and {de Oliveira Garcia}, Wagner and Hartmann, Jens and Khanna, Tarun and Luderer, Gunnar and Nemet, Gregory F and Rogelj, Joeri and Smith, Pete and Vicente, Jos{\'{e}} Luis Vicente and Wilcox, Jennifer and {del Mar Zamora Dominguez}, Maria and Minx, Jan C},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {063002},
title = {{Negative emissions – Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Fyfe2017,
abstract = {Peak runoff in streams and rivers of the western United States is strongly influenced by melting of accumulated mountain snowpack. A significant decline in this resource has a direct connection to streamflow, with substantial economic and societal impacts. Observations and reanalyses indicate that between the 1980s and 2000s, there was a 10–20{\%} loss in the annual maximum amount of water contained in the region's snowpack. Here we show that this loss is consistent with results from a large ensemble of climate simulations forced with natural and anthropogenic changes, but is inconsistent with simulations forced by natural changes alone. A further loss of up to 60{\%} is projected within the next 30 years. Uncertainties in loss estimates depend on the size and the rate of response to continued anthropogenic forcing and the magnitude and phasing of internal decadal variability. The projected losses have serious implications for the hydropower, municipal and agricultural sectors in the region.},
author = {Fyfe, John C and Derksen, Chris and Mudryk, Lawrence and Flato, Gregory M and Santer, Benjamin D and Swart, Neil C and Molotch, Noah P and Zhang, Xuebin and Wan, Hui and Arora, Vivek K and Scinocca, John and Jiao, Yanjun},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms14996},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {14996},
title = {{Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14996},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gartner-Roer2014a,
author = {G{\"{a}}rtner-Roer, I. and Naegeli, K. and Huss, M. and Knecht, T. and Machguth, H. and Zemp, M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.09.003},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
month = {nov},
pages = {330--344},
title = {{A database of worldwide glacier thickness observations}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818114001878},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Gutschow2018,
annote = {Times cited: 2},
author = {G{\"{u}}tschow, Johannes and Jeffery, Mairi Louise and Schaeffer, Michiel and Hare, Bill},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000781},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {NDCs},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1242--1259},
publisher = {Wiley},
title = {{Extending Near-Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000781 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017EF000781},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{tc-10-2779-2016,
abstract = {Abstract. In 2011 four ice cores were extracted from the summit of Alto dell'Ortles (3859 m), the highest glacier of South Tyrol in the Italian Alps. This drilling site is located only 37 km southwest from where the Tyrolean Iceman, ∼ 5.3 kyrs old, was discovered emerging from the ablating ice field of Tisenjoch (3210 m, near the Italian–Austrian border) in 1991. The excellent preservation of this mummy suggested that the Tyrolean Iceman was continuously embedded in prehistoric ice and that additional ancient ice was likely preserved elsewhere in South Tyrol. Dating of the ice cores from Alto dell'Ortles based on 210Pb, tritium, beta activity and 14C determinations, combined with an empirical model (COPRA), provides evidence for a chronologically ordered ice stratigraphy from the modern glacier surface down to the bottom ice layers with an age of ∼ 7 kyrs, which confirms the hypothesis. Our results indicate that the drilling site has continuously been glaciated on frozen bedrock since ∼ 7 kyrs BP. Absence of older ice on the highest glacier of South Tyrol is consistent with the removal of basal ice from bedrock during the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum (6–9 kyrs BP), the warmest interval in the European Alps during the Holocene. Borehole inclinometric measurements of the current glacier flow combined with surface ground penetration radar (GPR) measurements indicate that, due to the sustained atmospheric warming since the 1980s, an acceleration of the glacier Alto dell'Ortles flow has just recently begun. Given the stratigraphic–chronological continuity of the Mt. Ortles cores over millennia, it can be argued that this behaviour has been unprecedented at this location since the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum.},
author = {Gabrielli, Paolo and Barbante, Carlo and Bertagna, Giuliano and Bert{\'{o}}, Michele and Binder, Daniel and Carton, Alberto and Carturan, Luca and Cazorzi, Federico and Cozzi, Giulio and {Dalla Fontana}, Giancarlo and Davis, Mary and {De Blasi}, Fabrizio and Dinale, Roberto and Drag{\`{a}}, Gianfranco and Dreossi, Giuliano and Festi, Daniela and Frezzotti, Massimo and Gabrieli, Jacopo and Galos, Stephan P and Ginot, Patrick and Heidenwolf, Petra and Jenk, Theo M and Kehrwald, Natalie and Kenny, Donald and Magand, Olivier and Mair, Volkmar and Mikhalenko, Vladimir and Lin, Ping Nan and Oeggl, Klaus and Piffer, Gianni and Rinaldi, Mirko and Schotterer, Ulrich and Schwikowski, Margit and Seppi, Roberto and Spolaor, Andrea and Stenni, Barbara and Tonidandel, David and Uglietti, Chiara and Zagorodnov, Victor and Zanoner, Thomas and Zennaro, Piero},
doi = {10.5194/tc-10-2779-2016},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {nov},
number = {6},
pages = {2779--2797},
title = {{Age of the Mt. Ortles ice cores, the Tyrolean Iceman and glaciation of the highest summit of South Tyrol since the Northern Hemisphere Climatic Optimum}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/10/2779/2016/},
volume = {10},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Galbraith8199,
abstract = {The elemental ratios of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon in marine phytoplankton can diverge significantly from the {\{}$\backslash$textquotedblleft{\}}Redfield ratio,{\{}$\backslash$textquotedblright{\}} but the underlying reasons have been hard to elucidate. As a result, global biogeochemical models often ignore this stoichiometric variability. Here we show that, hidden within the noise of a large dataset of particulate measurements, a surprisingly consistent relationship exists between community P:C and dissolved phosphate concentrations. The plasticity of ecosystem stoichiometry in the face of nutrient scarcity, with greater plasticity for P relative to N, appears to explain the main divergences from the Redfield ratio. When included in a simple model, the relationship implies a more important role for low latitude nutrient cycling in the biological pump than is commonly assumed.It is widely recognized that the stoichiometry of nutrient elements in phytoplankton varies within the ocean. However, there are many conflicting mechanistic explanations for this variability, and it is often ignored in global biogeochemical models and carbon cycle simulations. Here we show that globally distributed particulate P:C varies as a linear function of ambient phosphate concentrations, whereas the N:C varies with ambient nitrate concentrations, but only when nitrate is most scarce. This observation is consistent with the adjustment of the phytoplankton community to local nutrient availability, with greater flexibility of phytoplankton P:C because P is a less abundant cellular component than N. This simple relationship is shown to predict the large-scale, long-term average composition of surface particles throughout large parts of the ocean remarkably well. The relationship implies that most of the observed variation in N:P actually arises from a greater plasticity in the cellular P:C content, relative to N:C, such that as overall macronutrient concentrations decrease, N:P rises. Although other mechanisms are certainly also relevant, this simple relationship can be applied as a first-order basis for predicting organic matter stoichiometry in large-scale biogeochemical models, as illustrated using a simple box model. The results show that including variable P:C makes atmospheric CO2 more sensitive to changes in low latitude export and ocean circulation than a fixed-stoichiometry model. In addition, variable P:C weakens the relationship between preformed phosphate and atmospheric CO2 while implying a more important role for the nitrogen cycle.},
author = {Galbraith, Eric D and Martiny, Adam C},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1423917112},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {27},
pages = {8199--8204},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{A simple nutrient-dependence mechanism for predicting the stoichiometry of marine ecosystems}},
url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/112/27/8199},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Gao2020,
abstract = {Bomb cyclones are explosively intensifying extratropical cyclones that can cause severe damage to life and property. However, the poor ability of coarse-resolution climate models to simulate bomb cyclones, including underestimation of the frequency of bomb cyclones, remains a problem. In this study, the dependence of bomb cyclone characteristics on horizontal resolution from 135 to 18 km is investigated by analyzing the outputs of HighResMIP historical simulations of atmospheric general circulation models and four reanalysis datasets. Robust resolution dependence of bomb cyclone characteristics is identified for both the models and the reanalyses. Finer horizontal resolution significantly increases the frequency of bomb cyclones and reduces their average horizontal size. A regression analysis indicates that bomb cyclone frequency is roughly doubled from 140 km to 25 km resolution. The overall increase in bomb cyclone number is associated with a large increase in small bomb cyclones and a moderate decrease in large ones. Bomb cyclones in higher-resolution models are also accompanied by a higher maximum wind speed and more extreme wind events, which is probably related to the increased pressure gradients due to the smaller size of the bomb cyclones. These results imply that high-resolution models should be used for evaluating the impacts of bomb cyclones.},
author = {Gao, Jiaxiang and Minobe, Shoshiro and Roberts, Malcolm J and Haarsma, Rein and Putrasahan, Dian and Roberts, Christopher D and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Terray, Laurent and Vanni{\`{e}}re, Beno$\backslash${\^{}}$\backslash$it and Vidale, Pier Luigi},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab88fa},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {8},
pages = {84001},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Influence of model resolution on bomb cyclones revealed by HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2Fab88fa},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Gasser2017,
abstract = {This paper provides a comprehensive description of OSCAR v2.2, a simple Earth system model. The general philosophy of development is first explained, followed by a complete description of the model's drivers and various modules. All components of the Earth system necessary to simulate future climate change are represented in the model: the oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycles-including a book-keeping module to endogenously estimate land-use change emissions-so as to simulate the change in atmospheric carbon dioxide; the tropospheric chemistry and the natural wetlands , to simulate that of methane; the stratospheric chemistry , for nitrous oxide; 37 halogenated compounds; changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone; the direct and indirect effects of aerosols; changes in surface albedo caused by black carbon deposition on snow and land-cover change; and the global and regional response of climate-in terms of temperature and precipitation-to all these climate forcers. Following the probabilistic framework of the model, an ensemble of simulations is made over the historical period (1750-2010). We show that the model performs well in reproducing observed past changes in the Earth system such as increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases or increased global mean surface temperature.},
author = {Gasser, Thomas and Ciais, Philippe and Boucher, Olivier and Quilcaille, Yann and Tortora, Maxime and Bopp, Laurent and Hauglustaine, Didier},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
pages = {271--319},
title = {{The compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2: description and first results}},
url = {www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/271/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gates1999,
author = {Gates, W. Lawrence and Boyle, James S. and Covey, Curt and Dease, Clyde G. and Doutriaux, Charles M. and Drach, Robert S. and Fiorino, Michael and Gleckler, Peter J. and Hnilo, Justin J. and Marlais, Susan M. and Phillips, Thomas J. and Potter, Gerald L. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Sperber, Kenneth R. and Taylor, Karl E. and Williams, Dean N.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0029:AOOTRO>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {29--55},
title = {{An Overview of the Results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP I)}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477{\%}281999{\%}29080{\%}3C0029{\%}3AAOOTRO{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {80},
year = {1999}
}
@article{Ge2008,
author = {Ge, Quansheng and Zheng, Jingyun and Tian, Yanyu and Wu, Wenxiang and Fang, Xiuqi and Wang, Wei-Chyung},
doi = {10.1002/joc.1552},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {accepted 25 march 2007,china,climatic reconstruction,coherence,historical documents,received 30 may 2006,revised 11 march 2007},
month = {jun},
number = {8},
pages = {1007--1024},
title = {{Coherence of climatic reconstruction from historical documents in China by different studies}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.1552},
volume = {28},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Gearheard2010,
author = {Gearheard, Shari and Pocernich, Matthew and Stewart, Ronald and Sanguya, Joelie and Huntington, Henry P.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-009-9587-1},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {267--294},
title = {{Linking Inuit knowledge and meteorological station observations to understand changing wind patterns at Clyde River, Nunavut}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-009-9587-1},
volume = {100},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Gelaro2017,
abstract = {AbstractThe Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), is the latest atmospheric reanalysis of the modern satellite era produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). MERRA-2 assimilates observation types not available to its predecessor, MERRA, and includes updates to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and analysis scheme so as to provide a viable ongoing climate analysis beyond MERRA's terminus. While addressing known limitations of MERRA, MERRA-2 is also intended to be a development milestone for a future integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) currently under development at GMAO. This paper provides an overview of the MERRA-2 system and various performance metrics. Among the advances in MERRA-2 relevant to IESA are the assimilation of aerosol observations, several improvements to the representation of the stratosphere including ozone, and improved representations of cryospheric processes. Other improvements in the quality of M...},
author = {Gelaro, Ronald and McCarty, Will and Su{\'{a}}rez, Max J. and Todling, Ricardo and Molod, Andrea and Takacs, Lawrence and Randles, Cynthia A. and Darmenov, Anton and Bosilovich, Michael G. and Reichle, Rolf and Wargan, Krzysztof and Coy, Lawrence and Cullather, Richard and Draper, Clara and Akella, Santha and Buchard, Virginie and Conaty, Austin and da Silva, Arlindo M. and Gu, Wei and Kim, Gi Kong and Koster, Randal and Lucchesi, Robert and Merkova, Dagmar and Nielsen, Jon Eric and Partyka, Gary and Pawson, Steven and Putman, William and Rienecker, Michele and Schubert, Siegfried D. and Sienkiewicz, Meta and Zhao, Bin},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1},
isbn = {0894-8755
1520-0442},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Aerosols,Data assimilation,Numerical analysis/modeling,Reanalysis data,Satellite observations},
number = {14},
pages = {5419--5454},
title = {{The modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gerber2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Diagnostics of atmospheric momentum and energy transport are needed to investigate the origin of circulation biases in climate models and to understand the atmospheric response to natural and anthropogenic forcing. Model biases in atmospheric dynamics are one of the factors that increase uncertainty in projections of regional climate, precipitation and extreme events. Here we define requirements for diagnosing the atmospheric circulation and variability across temporal scales and for evaluating the transport of mass, momentum and energy by dynamical processes in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). These diagnostics target the assessments of both resolved and parameterized dynamical processes in climate models, a novelty for CMIP, and are particularly vital for assessing the impact of the stratosphere on surface climate change.},
author = {Gerber, Edwin P. and Manzini, Elisa},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3413-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3413--3425},
title = {{The Dynamics and Variability Model Intercomparison Project (DynVarMIP) for CMIP6: assessing the stratosphere–troposphere system}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3413/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Gettelman2016,
annote = {Times cited: 11},
author = {Gettelman, A and Sherwood, S C},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-016-0052-8},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
number = {4},
pages = {179--189},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Processes Responsible for Cloud Feedback}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0052-8},
volume = {2},
year = {2016}
}
@article{gettelman2019,
abstract = {The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. ECS is an emergent property of both climate feedbacks and aerosol forcing. The increase in ECS over the previous version (CESM1) is the result of cloud feedbacks. Interim versions of CESM2 had a land model that damped ECS. Part of the ECS change results from evolving the model configuration to reproduce the long‐term trend of global and regional surface temperature over the twentieth century in response to climate forcings. Changes made to reduce sensitivity to aerosols also impacted cloud feedbacks, which significantly influence ECS. CESM2 simulations compare very well to observations of present climate. It is critical to understand whether the high ECS, outside the best estimate range of 1.5–4.5 K, is plausible. The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) has an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K ECS change is mostly due to atmospheric cloud feedbacks, with land surface impacts in intermediate versions Processes that impact ECS through cloud feedbacks also impact aerosol forcing of climate},
author = {Gettelman, A and Hannay, C and Bacmeister, J T and Neale, R B and Pendergrass, A G and Danabasoglu, G and Lamarque, J.‐F. and Fasullo, J T and Bailey, D A and Lawrence, D M and Mills, M J},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083978},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {14},
pages = {8329--8337},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083978},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gidden2019,
author = {Gidden, Matthew J. and Riahi, Keywan and Smith, Steven J. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Luderer, Gunnar and Kriegler, Elmar and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and van den Berg, Maarten and Feng, Leyang and Klein, David and Calvin, Katherine and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Frank, Stefan and Fricko, Oliver and Harmsen, Mathijs and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Hilaire, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Hoesly, Rachel and Horing, Jill and Popp, Alexander and Stehfest, Elke and Takahashi, Kiyoshi},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1443--1475},
title = {{Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/1443/2019/},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gidden2018,
author = {Gidden, Matthew J. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and van den Berg, Maarten and Klein, David and Smith, Steven J. and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Riahi, Keywan},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.04.002},
issn = {13648152},
journal = {Environmental Modelling {\&} Software},
month = {jul},
pages = {187--200},
title = {{A methodology and implementation of automated emissions harmonization for use in Integrated Assessment Models}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364815217307867},
volume = {105},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gillett2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Detection and attribution (D{\&}A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D{\&}A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D{\&}A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.},
author = {Gillett, Nathan P. and Shiogama, Hideo and Funke, Bernd and Hegerl, Gabriele and Knutti, Reto and Matthes, Katja and Santer, Benjamin D. and Stone, Daithi and Tebaldi, Claudia},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {3685--3697},
title = {{The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3685/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Gillett2003a,
author = {Gillett, Nathan P. and Zwiers, Francis W. and Weaver, Andrew J. and Stott, Peter A.},
doi = {10.1038/nature01487},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {mar},
number = {6929},
pages = {292--294},
title = {{Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature01487},
volume = {422},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Gillett2021a,
abstract = {Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.},
author = {Gillett, Nathan P. and Kirchmeier-Young, Megan and Ribes, Aur{\'{e}}lien and Shiogama, Hideo and Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Knutti, Reto and Gastineau, Guillaume and John, Jasmin G. and Li, Lijuan and Nazarenko, Larissa and Rosenbloom, Nan and Seland, {\O}yvind and Wu, Tongwen and Yukimoto, Seiji and Ziehn, Tilo},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {207--212},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00965-9},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2017MS001242,
abstract = {Abstract ICON-A is the new icosahedral nonhydrostatic (ICON) atmospheric general circulation model in a configuration using the Max Planck Institute physics package, which originates from the ECHAM6 general circulation model, and has been adapted to account for the changed dynamical core framework. The coupling scheme between dynamics and physics employs a sequential updating by dynamics and physics, and a fixed sequence of the physical processes similar to ECHAM6. To allow a meaningful initial comparison between ICON-A and the established ECHAM6-LR model, a setup with similar, low resolution in terms of number of grid points and levels is chosen. The ICON-A model is tuned on the base of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment aiming primarily at a well balanced top-of atmosphere energy budget to make the model suitable for coupled climate and Earth system modeling. The tuning addresses first the moisture and cloud distribution to achieve the top-of-atmosphere energy balance, followed by the tuning of the parameterized dynamic drag aiming at reduced wind errors in the troposphere. The resulting version of ICON-A has overall biases, which are comparable to those of ECHAM6. Problematic specific biases remain in the vertical distribution of clouds and in the stratospheric circulation, where the winter vortices are too weak. Biases in precipitable water and tropospheric temperature are, however, reduced compared to the ECHAM6. ICON-A will serve as the basis of further development and as the atmosphere component to the coupled model, ICON-Earth system model (ESM).},
author = {Giorgetta, M A and Brokopf, R and Crueger, T and Esch, M and Fiedler, S and Helmert, J and Hohenegger, C and Kornblueh, L and K{\"{o}}hler, M and Manzini, E and Mauritsen, T and Nam, C and Raddatz, T and Rast, S and Reinert, D and Sakradzija, M and Schmidt, H and Schneck, R and Schnur, R and Silvers, L and Wan, H and Z{\"{a}}ngl, G and Stevens, B},
doi = {10.1029/2017MS001242},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {ICON-A,atmospheric GCM,model description,model tuning},
number = {7},
pages = {1613--1637},
title = {{ICON-A, the Atmosphere Component of the ICON Earth System Model: I. Model Description}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2017MS001242},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Giorgi2009,
abstract = {[1] The Time Of Emergence (TOE) of 14 greenhouse gas (GHG) ‐ forced precipitation change hotspots (PSPOTs) is identified from the CMIP3 multi‐model ensemble. The TOE is defined as the time in 21st century...},
author = {Giorgi, Filippo and Bi, Xunqiang},
doi = {10.1029/2009GL037593},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {653--656},
title = {{Time of emergence (TOE) of GHG-forced precipitation change hot-spots}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2009GL037593 papers3://publication/doi/10.1029/2009GL037593},
volume = {36},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Giorgi2015,
abstract = {We review the challenges and future perspectives of regional climate model (RCM), or dynamical downscaling, activities. Among the main technical issues in need of better understanding are those of selection and sensitivity to the model domain and resolution, techniques for providing lateral boundary conditions, and RCM internal variability. The added value (AV) obtained with the use of RCMs remains a central issue, which needs more rigorous and comprehensive analysis strategies. Within the context of regional climate projections, large ensembles of simulations are needed to better understand the models and characterize uncertainties. This has provided an impetus for the development of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the first international program offering a common protocol for downscaling experiments, and we discuss how CORDEX can address the key scientific challenges in downscaling research. Among the main future developments in RCM research, we highlight the development of coupled regional Earth system models and the transition to very high-resolution, cloud-resolving models.},
annote = {doi: 10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217},
author = {Giorgi, Filippo and Gutowski, William J},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217},
issn = {1543-5938},
journal = {Annual Review of Environment and Resources},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {467--490},
publisher = {Annual Reviews},
title = {{Regional Dynamical Downscaling and the CORDEX Initiative}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217},
volume = {40},
year = {2015}
}
@article{amt-2019-417,
author = {Gleisner, Hans and Lauritsen, Kent B and Nielsen, Johannes K and Syndergaard, Stig},
doi = {10.5194/amt-13-3081-2020},
issn = {1867-8548},
journal = {Atmospheric Measurement Techniques},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {3081--3098},
title = {{Evaluation of the 15-year ROM SAF monthly mean GPS radio occultation climate data record}},
url = {https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/3081/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Gobron2009,
address = {London, UK},
author = {Gobron, Nadine and Verstraete, Michel M. and Pinty, Bernard and Taberner, Malcolm and Aussedat, Oph{\'{e}}lie},
booktitle = {Recent Advances in Remote Sensing and Geoinformation Processing for Land Degradation Assessment},
chapter = {5},
doi = {10.1201/9780203875445},
editor = {Roeder, Achim and Joachim, Hill},
pages = {89--102},
publisher = {CRC Press},
title = {{Potential of long time series of FAPAR products for assessing and monitoring land surface changes: Examples in Europe and the Sahel}},
url = {https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.1201/9780203875445-11/potential-long-time-series-fapar-products-assessing-monitoring-land-surface-changes-examples-europe-sahel-nadine-gobron-michel-verstraete-bernard-pinty-malcolm-taberner-oph{\'{e}}lie-aussedat?},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Goelzer2018,
abstract = {Abstract. Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.},
author = {Goelzer, Heiko and Nowicki, Sophie and Edwards, Tamsin and Beckley, Matthew and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Aschwanden, Andy and Calov, Reinhard and Gagliardini, Olivier and Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien and Golledge, Nicholas R. and Gregory, Jonathan and Greve, Ralf and Humbert, Angelika and Huybrechts, Philippe and Kennedy, Joseph H. and Larour, Eric and Lipscomb, William H. and Le clec{\&}apos;h, S{\'{e}}bastien and Lee, Victoria and Morlighem, Mathieu and Pattyn, Frank and Payne, Antony J. and Rodehacke, Christian and R{\"{u}}ckamp, Martin and Saito, Fuyuki and Schlegel, Nicole and Seroussi, Helene and Shepherd, Andrew and Sun, Sainan and van de Wal, Roderik and Ziemen, Florian A.},
doi = {10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1433--1460},
title = {{Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison}},
url = {https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1433/2018/},
volume = {12},
year = {2018}
}
@article{golaz2019 doi:10.1029/2018MS001603,
abstract = {Abstract This work documents the first version of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) new Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). We focus on the standard resolution of the fully coupled physical model designed to address DOE mission-relevant water cycle questions. Its components include atmosphere and land (110-km grid spacing), ocean and sea ice (60 km in the midlatitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles), and river transport (55 km) models. This base configuration will also serve as a foundation for additional configurations exploring higher horizontal resolution as well as augmented capabilities in the form of biogeochemistry and cryosphere configurations. The performance of E3SMv1 is evaluated by means of a standard set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations consisting of a long preindustrial control, historical simulations (ensembles of fully coupled and prescribed SSTs) as well as idealized CO2 forcing simulations. The model performs well overall with biases typical of other CMIP-class models, although the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weaker than many CMIP-class models. While the E3SMv1 historical ensemble captures the bulk of the observed warming between preindustrial (1850) and present day, the trajectory of the warming diverges from observations in the second half of the twentieth century with a period of delayed warming followed by an excessive warming trend. Using a two-layer energy balance model, we attribute this divergence to the model's strong aerosol-related effective radiative forcing (ERFari+aci = −1.65 W/m2) and high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS = 5.3 K).},
author = {Golaz, Jean-Christophe and Caldwell, Peter M and {Van Roekel}, Luke P and Petersen, Mark R and Tang, Qi and Wolfe, Jonathan D and Abeshu, Guta and Anantharaj, Valentine and Asay-Davis, Xylar S and Bader, David C and Baldwin, Sterling A and Bisht, Gautam and Bogenschutz, Peter A and Branstetter, Marcia and Brunke, Michael A and Brus, Steven R and Burrows, Susannah M and Cameron-Smith, Philip J and Donahue, Aaron S and Deakin, Michael and Easter, Richard C and Evans, Katherine J and Feng, Yan and Flanner, Mark and Foucar, James G and Fyke, Jeremy G and Griffin, Brian M and Hannay, C{\'{e}}cile and Harrop, Bryce E and Hoffman, Mattthew J and Hunke, Elizabeth C and Jacob, Robert L and Jacobsen, Douglas W and Jeffery, Nicole and Jones, Philip W and Keen, Noel D and Klein, Stephen A and Larson, Vincent E and Leung, L Ruby and Li, Hong-Yi and Lin, Wuyin and Lipscomb, William H and Ma, Po-Lun and Mahajan, Salil and Maltrud, Mathew E and Mametjanov, Azamat and McClean, Julie L and McCoy, Renata B and Neale, Richard B and Price, Stephen F and Qian, Yun and Rasch, Philip J and {Reeves Eyre}, J E Jack and Riley, William J and Ringler, Todd D and Roberts, Andrew F and Roesler, Erika L and Salinger, Andrew G and Shaheen, Zeshawn and Shi, Xiaoying and Singh, Balwinder and Tang, Jinyun and Taylor, Mark A and Thornton, Peter E and Turner, Adrian K and Veneziani, Milena and Wan, Hui and Wang, Hailong and Wang, Shanlin and Williams, Dean N and Wolfram, Phillip J and Worley, Patrick H and Xie, Shaocheng and Yang, Yang and Yoon, Jin-Ho and Zelinka, Mark D and Zender, Charles S and Zeng, Xubin and Zhang, Chengzhu and Zhang, Kai and Zhang, Yuying and Zheng, Xue and Zhou, Tian and Zhu, Qing},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001603},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
number = {7},
pages = {2089--2129},
title = {{The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Overview and Evaluation at Standard Resolution}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018MS001603},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Goni2019,
author = {Goni, Gustavo J. and Sprintall, Janet and Bringas, Francis and Cheng, Lijing and Cirano, Mauro and Dong, Shenfu and Domingues, Ricardo and Goes, Marlos and Lopez, Hosmay and Morrow, Rosemary and Rivero, Ulises and Rossby, Thomas and Todd, Robert E. and Trinanes, Joaquin and Zilberman, Nathalie and Baringer, Molly and Boyer, Tim and Cowley, Rebecca and Domingues, Catia M. and Hutchinson, Katherine and Kramp, Martin and Mata, Mauricio M. and Reseghetti, Franco and Sun, Charles and {Bhaskar TVS}, Udaya and Volkov, Denis},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00452},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
month = {jul},
pages = {452},
title = {{More Than 50 Years of Successful Continuous Temperature Section Measurements by the Global Expendable Bathythermograph Network, Its Integrability, Societal Benefits, and Future}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00452/full},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Good2013a,
author = {Good, Peter and Jones, Chris and Lowe, Jason and Betts, Richard and Gedney, Nicola},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00366.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {495--511},
title = {{Comparing Tropical Forest Projections from Two Generations of Hadley Centre Earth System Models, HadGEM2-ES and HadCM3LC}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00366.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Gottschalk2018,
abstract = {Radiocarbon ( 14 C) measurements of foraminifera often provide the only absolute age constraints in marine sediments. However, they are often challenging as their reliability and accuracy can be compromised by reduced availability of adequate sample material. New analytical advances using the MIni CArbon DAting System (MICADAS) allow 14 C dating of very small samples, circumventing size limitations inherent to conventional 14 C measurements with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Here we use foraminiferal samples and carbonate standard material to assess the reproducibility and precision of MICADAS 14 C analyses, quantify contamination biases, and determine foraminiferal 14 C blank levels. The reproducibility of conventional 14 C ages for our planktic (benthic) foraminiferal samples from gas measurements is 200 (130) yr, and has good precision as illustrated by the agreement between both standards and their reference values as well as between small gas- and larger graphitized foraminiferal samples (within 100±60 yr). We observe a constant contamination bias and slightly higher 14 C blanks for foraminifera than for carbonate reference materials, limiting gas (graphite) 14 C age determinations for foraminifera from our study sites to {\~{}}38 ({\~{}}42) kyr. Our findings underline the significance of MICADAS gas analyses for 14 C on smaller-than-conventional sized foraminiferal samples for paleoclimate reconstructions and dating.},
author = {Gottschalk, Julia and Szidat, S{\"{o}}nke and Michel, Elisabeth and Mazaud, Alain and Salazar, Gary and Battaglia, Michael and Lippold, J{\"{o}}rg and Jaccard, Samuel L},
doi = {10.1017/RDC.2018.3},
issn = {0033-8222},
journal = {Radiocarbon},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {469--491},
title = {{Radiocarbon Measurements of Small-Size Foraminiferal Samples with the Mini Carbon Dating System (MICADAS) at the University of Bern: Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0033822218000036/type/journal{\_}article},
volume = {60},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gould2003,
author = {Gould, John},
doi = {10.5670/oceanog.2003.05},
issn = {10428275},
journal = {Oceanography},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {24--30},
title = {{WOCE and TOGA—The Foundations of the Global Ocean Observing System}},
url = {https://tos.org/oceanography/article/woce-and-togathe-foundations-of-the-global-ocean-observing-system},
volume = {16},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Gramelsberger2020a,
abstract = {Abstract We explore three questions about Earth system modeling that are of both scientific and philosophical interest: What kind of understanding can be gained via complex Earth system models? How can the limits of understanding be bypassed or managed? How should the task of evaluating Earth system models be conceptualized?},
author = {Gramelsberger, G and Lenhard, J and Parker, W S},
doi = {10.1029/2019MS001720},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
number = {1},
pages = {e2019MS001720},
title = {{Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding}},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Grant2019,
abstract = {Earth is heading towards a climate that last existed more than three million years ago (Ma) during the ‘mid-Pliocene warm period'1, when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were about 400 parts per million, global sea level oscillated in response to orbital forcing2,3 and peak global-mean sea level (GMSL) may have reached about 20 metres above the present-day value4,5. For sea-level rise of this magnitude, extensive retreat or collapse of the Greenland, West Antarctic and marine-based sectors of the East Antarctic ice sheets is required. Yet the relative amplitude of sea-level variations within glacial–interglacial cycles remains poorly constrained. To address this, we calibrate a theoretical relationship between modern sediment transport by waves and water depth, and then apply the technique to grain size in a continuous 800-metre-thick Pliocene sequence of shallow-marine sediments from Whanganui Basin, New Zealand. Water-depth variations obtained in this way, after corrections for tectonic subsidence, yield cyclic relative sea-level (RSL) variations. Here we show that sea level varied on average by 13 ± 5 metres over glacial–interglacial cycles during the middle-to-late Pliocene (about 3.3–2.5 Ma). The resulting record is independent of the global ice volume proxy3 (as derived from the deep-ocean oxygen isotope record) and sea-level cycles are in phase with 20-thousand-year (kyr) periodic changes in insolation over Antarctica, paced by eccentricity-modulated orbital precession6 between 3.3 and 2.7 Ma. Thereafter, sea-level fluctuations are paced by the 41-kyr period of cycles in Earth's axial tilt as ice sheets stabilize on Antarctica and intensify in the Northern Hemisphere3,6. Strictly, we provide the amplitude of RSL change, rather than absolute GMSL change. However, simulations of RSL change based on glacio-isostatic adjustment show that our record approximates eustatic sea level, defined here as GMSL unregistered to the centre of the Earth. Nonetheless, under conservative assumptions, our estimates limit maximum Pliocene sea-level rise to less than 25 metres and provide new constraints on polar ice-volume variability under the climate conditions predicted for this century.},
author = {Grant, G R and Naish, T R and Dunbar, G B and Stocchi, P and Kominz, M A and Kamp, P J J and Tapia, C A and McKay, R M and Levy, R H and Patterson, M O},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1619-z},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7777},
pages = {237--241},
title = {{The amplitude and origin of sea-level variability during the Pliocene epoch}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1619-z},
volume = {574},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Grassi2017,
author = {Grassi, Giacomo and House, Jo and Dentener, Frank and Federici, Sandro and den Elzen, Michel and Penman, Jim},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3227},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {220--226},
title = {{The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3227},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Green2010,
abstract = {Although the last 200 years of colonisation has brought radical changes in economic and governance structures for thousands of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders living in remote areas of northern Australia, many of these Indigenous people still rely upon, and live closely connected to, their natural environment. Over millennia, living 'on country', many of these communities have developed a sophisticated appreciation of their local ecosystems and the climatic patterns associated with the changes in them. Some of this knowledge is {\ldots}},
annote = {Times cited: 119},
author = {Green, Donna and Billy, Jack and Tapim, Alo},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-010-9803-z},
isbn = {0165-0009},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {ITK},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {337--354},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Indigenous Australians' knowledge of weather and climate}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-010-9803-z.pdf http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-010-9803-z},
volume = {100},
year = {2010}
}
@misc{Green2020,
address = {Palisades, NY, USA},
author = {Green, C. and Carlisle, D. and O'Neill, B. C. and van Ruijven, B. J. and Boyer, C. and Ebi, K.},
doi = {10.7927/HN96-9703},
publisher = {National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)},
title = {{Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Literature Database, Version 1, 2014–2019}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.7927/HN96-9703},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Gregory2016a,
author = {Gregory, J. M. and Andrews, T. and Good, P. and Mauritsen, T. and Forster, P. M.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3055-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {3979--3991},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3055-1},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Gregory2016,
abstract = {Abstract. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sea-level rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.},
author = {Gregory, Jonathan M. and Bouttes, Nathaelle and Griffies, Stephen M. and Haak, Helmuth and Hurlin, William J. and Jungclaus, Johann and Kelley, Maxwell and Lee, Warren G. and Marshall, John and Romanou, Anastasia and Saenko, Oleg A. and Stammer, Detlef and Winton, Michael},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {3993--4017},
title = {{The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3993/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Gregory2004,
author = {Gregory, J. M. and Ingram, W. J. and Palmer, M. A. and Jones, J.S. and Stott, P.A and Thorpe, R.B. and Lowe, J. A. and Johns, T. C. and Williams, K. D.},
doi = {10.1029/2003GL018747},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {3},
pages = {L03205},
title = {{A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2003GL018747},
volume = {31},
year = {2004}
}
@article{gmd-9-3231-2016,
abstract = {Abstract. The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is an endorsed project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses CMIP6 science questions, investigating the origins and consequences of systematic model biases. It does so by providing a framework for evaluating (including assessment of systematic biases), understanding, and improving ocean, sea-ice, tracer, and biogeochemical components of climate and earth system models contributing to CMIP6. Among the WCRP Grand Challenges in climate science (GCs), OMIP primarily contributes to the regional sea level change and near-term (climate/decadal) prediction GCs. OMIP provides (a) an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing; and (b) a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) detailing methods for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II (Interannual Forcing) have become the standard methods to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP, HighResMIP (High Resolution MIP), as well as the ocean/sea-ice OMIP simulations.},
author = {Griffies, Stephen M and Danabasoglu, Gokhan and Durack, Paul J and Adcroft, Alistair J and Balaji, V and B{\"{o}}ning, Claus W and Chassignet, Eric P and Curchitser, Enrique and Deshayes, Julie and Drange, Helge and Fox-Kemper, Baylor and Gleckler, Peter J and Gregory, Jonathan M and Haak, Helmuth and Hallberg, Robert W and Heimbach, Patrick and Hewitt, Helene T and Holland, David M and Ilyina, Tatiana and Jungclaus, Johann H and Komuro, Yoshiki and Krasting, John P and Large, William G and Marsland, Simon J and Masina, Simona and McDougall, Trevor J and Nurser, A J George and Orr, James C and Pirani, Anna and Qiao, Fangli and Stouffer, Ronald J and Taylor, Karl E and Treguier, Anne Marie and Tsujino, Hiroyuki and Uotila, Petteri and Valdivieso, Maria and Wang, Qiang and Winton, Michael and Yeager, Stephen G},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3231--3296},
title = {{OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3231/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Grose2017a,
abstract = {The perception of the accuracy of regional climate projections made in the early 1990s about climate change by 2030 may be influenced by how the temperature trend has changed in the 25 years since their publication. However, temperature trends over this period were influenced not only by external forcings such as greenhouse gases but also natural variations. The temperature of Southern Australia, the Sahel, South Asia and Southern Europe are currently within the warming estimates from statements in the early 1990s from the IPCC and CSIRO, assuming a linear trend between 1990 and 2030. However, northern Australia and central North America are currently at the lower limit or below these projections, having featured areas of mult i-year regional cooling during global warming, sometimes called ‘warming holes' . Recent climate model simulations suggest that cooling can be expected in the rec ent past and near future in some regions, including in Australia and the US, and that cooling is less likely over 1990 – 2030 than in 1990 – 2015, bringing observations closer to the IPCC and CSIRO warming estimates by 2030. Cooling at the 25-year scale in some regions can be associated with cyclic variability such as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, or low trend such as in the Southern Ocean. Explicitly communicating the variability in regional warming rates in climate projections, including the possibility of regional warming ‘ holes ' (or the opposite of ‘surges' or ‘peaks' ) would help to set more reliable expectations by users of those projections.},
author = {Grose, Michael R. and Risbey, James S. and Whetton, Penny H.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1840-9},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Climate projections,Climate variability,Regional climate change},
number = {2},
pages = {307--322},
title = {{Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes'}},
volume = {140},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Grose2018a,
author = {Grose, Michael R. and Gregory, Jonathan and Colman, Robert and Andrews, Timothy},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075742},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1559--1566},
title = {{What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL075742},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Grose2019,
abstract = {Tasmania saw a warm and very dry spring and summer in 2015–16, including a record dry October, which had significant, wide-ranging impacts. A previous study using two probabilistic event-attribution techniques found a small but statistically significant increase in the likelihood of the record dry October due to anthropogenic influence. Given the human signal was less clear amid natural variability for rainfall compared to temperature extremes, here we provided further evidence and context for this finding. An additional attribution method supported the October rainfall finding, and the median attributable risk to human influence in the three methods was {\~{}}25{\%}, 48{\%} and 75{\%}. The results suggested that human influence on rainfall was partly through increased sea level pressure in the mid-latitudes associated with fewer rainbearing systems, a circulation driver that was consistent with recent trends that have been attributed to human influence. Dry conditions were also driven by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El Ni{\~{n}}o at the time, but this study could not reliably estimate the effect of human influence on these phenomena, as each model gave a different estimate of the ocean warming pattern. Along with rainfall, attribution modelling showed a role for human influence in higher temperature and evaporation through October 2015, as well as a high drought index throughout spring. Confidence in the attribution of a human signal on this extreme dry event increased as multiple attribution methods agreed, a plausible atmospheric circulation driver was identified, and temperature and evaporation also showed an anthropogenic signal.},
author = {Grose, Michael R. and Black, Mitchell T. and Wang, Guomin and King, Andrew D. and Hope, Pandora and Karoly, David J.},
doi = {10.1071/es19011},
file = {::},
issn = {2206-5865},
journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science},
number = {1},
pages = {183},
title = {{The warm and extremely dry spring in 2015 in Tasmania contained the fingerprint of human influence on the climate}},
volume = {69},
year = {2019}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2019GL083906,
abstract = {The El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate variability. While earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here, we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of {\~{}}20{\%} from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is {\~{}}25{\%} stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.},
author = {Grothe, Pamela R and Cobb, Kim M and Liguori, Giovanni and {Di Lorenzo}, Emanuele and Capotondi, Antonietta and Lu, Yanbin and Cheng, Hai and Edwards, R Lawrence and Southon, John R and Santos, Guaciara M and Deocampo, Daniel M and Lynch‐Stieglitz, Jean and Chen, Tianran and Sayani, Hussein R and Thompson, Diane M and Conroy, Jessica L and Moore, Andrea L and Townsend, Kayla and Hagos, Melat and O'Connor, Gemma and Toth, Lauren T},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083906},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Anthropogenic Climate Change,Coral Paleoclimate,El-Nino Southern Oscillation,Holocene Climate Change,Mid-Holocene},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {e2019GL083906},
title = {{Enhanced El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083906},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@book{Grove1995,
address = {Cambridge, UK},
author = {Grove, Richard H},
isbn = {9780521403856},
pages = {540},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Green Imperialism: Colonial Expansion, Tropical Island Edens and the Origins of Environmentalism, 1600-1860}},
year = {1995}
}
@article{Gryspeerdt2012,
author = {Gryspeerdt, Edward and Stier, Philip},
doi = {10.1029/2012GL053221},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {L21802},
title = {{Regime-based analysis of aerosol-cloud interactions}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012GL053221},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Guan2017,
author = {Guan, Bin and Waliser, Duane E.},
doi = {10.1002/2016JD026174},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5556--5581},
title = {{Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multimodel, global evaluation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016JD026174},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Guanter2014,
abstract = {Global food and biofuel production and their vulnerability in a changing climate are of paramount societal importance. However, current global model predictions of crop photosynthesis are highly uncertain. Here we demonstrate that new space-based observations of chlorophyll fluorescence, an emission intrinsically linked to plant biochemistry, enable an accurate, global, and time-resolved measurement of crop photosynthesis, which is not possible from any other remote vegetation measurement. Our results show that chlorophyll fluorescence data can be used as a unique benchmark to improve our global models, thus providing more reliable projections of agricultural productivity and climate impact on crop yields. The enormous increase of the observational capabilities for fluorescence in the very near future strengthens the relevance of this study.Photosynthesis is the process by which plants harvest sunlight to produce sugars from carbon dioxide and water. It is the primary source of energy for all life on Earth; hence it is important to understand how this process responds to climate change and human impact. However, model-based estimates of gross primary production (GPP, output from photosynthesis) are highly uncertain, in particular over heavily managed agricultural areas. Recent advances in spectroscopy enable the space-based monitoring of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from terrestrial plants. Here we demonstrate that spaceborne SIF retrievals provide a direct measure of the GPP of cropland and grassland ecosystems. Such a strong link with crop photosynthesis is not evident for traditional remotely sensed vegetation indices, nor for more complex carbon cycle models. We use SIF observations to provide a global perspective on agricultural productivity. Our SIF-based crop GPP estimates are 50–75{\%} higher than results from state-of-the-art carbon cycle models over, for example, the US Corn Belt and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, implying that current models severely underestimate the role of management. Our results indicate that SIF data can help us improve our global models for more accurate projections of agricultural productivity and climate impact on crop yields. Extension of our approach to other ecosystems, along with increased observational capabilities for SIF in the near future, holds the prospect of reducing uncertainties in the modeling of the current and future carbon cycle.},
author = {Guanter, Luis and Zhang, Yongguang and Jung, Martin and Joiner, Joanna and Voigt, Maximilian and Berry, Joseph A and Frankenberg, Christian and Huete, Alfredo R and Zarco-Tejada, Pablo and Lee, Jung-Eun and Moran, M Susan and Ponce-Campos, Guillermo and Beer, Christian and Camps-Valls, Gustavo and Buchmann, Nina and Gianelle, Damiano and Klumpp, Katja and Cescatti, Alessandro and Baker, John M and Griffis, Timothy J},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1320008111},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {14},
pages = {E1327-- E1333},
title = {{Global and time-resolved monitoring of crop photosynthesis with chlorophyll fluorescence}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/111/14/E1327.abstract},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Guilyardi2016a,
author = {Guilyardi, Eric and Wittenberg, Andrew and Balmaseda, Magdalena and Cai, Wenju and Collins, Matthew and McPhaden, Michael J and Watanabe, Masahiro and Yeh, Sang-Wook},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00287.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {dec},
number = {5},
pages = {817--820},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Fourth CLIVAR Workshop on the Evaluation of ENSO Processes in Climate Models: ENSO in a Changing Climate}},
volume = {97},
year = {2016}
}
@article{GutowskiJr.2016,
abstract = {Abstract. The COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic model intercomparison project (MIP) in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates and assess sources of uncertainties in the projections, all of which can potentially be distilled into climate change information for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies. CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies advance regional downscaling by targeting one or more of the CORDEX Regional Challenges. A CORDEX-CORE framework is planned that will produce a baseline set of homogeneous high-resolution, downscaled projections for regions worldwide. In CMIP6, CORDEX coordinates with ScenarioMIP and is structured to allow cross comparisons with HighResMIP and interaction with the CMIP6 VIACS Advisory Board.},
author = {{Gutowski Jr.}, William J. and Giorgi, Filippo and Timbal, Bertrand and Frigon, Anne and Jacob, Daniela and Kang, Hyun-Suk and Raghavan, Krishnan and Lee, Boram and Lennard, Christopher and Nikulin, Grigory and O{\&}apos;Rourke, Eleanor and Rixen, Michel and Solman, Silvina and Stephenson, Tannecia and Tangang, Fredolin},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {4087--4095},
title = {{WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/4087/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hogbom1894,
author = {H{\"{o}}gbom, Arvid},
journal = {Svensk Kemisk Tidskrift},
pages = {169--177},
title = {{Om sannolikheten f{\"{o}}r sekul{\"{a}}ra f{\"{o}}r{\"{a}}ndringar i atmosf{\"{a}}rens kolsyrehalt}},
volume = {4},
year = {1894}
}
@article{Haarsma2016,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. {\textless}br{\textgreater}{\textless}br{\textgreater} However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). {\textless}br{\textgreater}{\textless}br{\textgreater} Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. {\textless}br{\textgreater}{\textless}br{\textgreater} The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950–2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Haarsma, Reindert J. and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Senior, Catherine A. and Bellucci, Alessio and Bao, Qing and Chang, Ping and Corti, Susanna and Fu{\v{c}}kar, Neven S. and Guemas, Virginie and von Hardenberg, Jost and Hazeleger, Wilco and Kodama, Chihiro and Koenigk, Torben and Leung, L. Ruby and Lu, Jian and Luo, Jing-Jia and Mao, Jiafu and Mizielinski, Matthew S. and Mizuta, Ryo and Nobre, Paulo and Satoh, Masaki and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Semmler, Tido and Small, Justin and von Storch, Jin-Song},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {4185--4208},
title = {{High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/4185/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hadley1735,
author = {Hadley, George},
doi = {10.1098/rstl.1735.0014},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London},
keywords = {http://www.jstor.org/journals/02607085.html},
pages = {58--62},
publisher = {Royal Society of London, JSTOR (Organization),},
title = {{Concerning the Cause of the General Trade-Winds}},
volume = {39},
year = {1735}
}
@article{Haimberger2012a,
abstract = {AbstractThis article describes progress in the homogenization of global radiosonde temperatures with updated versions of the Radiosonde Observation Correction Using Reanalyses (RAOBCORE) and Radiosonde Innovation Composite Homogenization (RICH) software packages. These are automated methods to homogenize the global radiosonde temperature dataset back to 1958. The break dates are determined from analysis of time series of differences between radiosonde temperatures (obs) and background forecasts (bg) of climate data assimilation systems used for the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the ongoing interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim).RAOBCORE uses the obs−bg time series also for estimating the break sizes. RICH determines the break sizes either by comparing the observations of a tested time series with observations of neighboring radiosonde time series (RICH-obs) or by comparing their background departures (RICH-$\tau$). Consequently RAOBCORE results may b...},
author = {Haimberger, Leopold and Tavolato, Christina and Sperka, Stefan},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00668.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climatology},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {8108--8131},
title = {{Homogenization of the global radiosonde temperature dataset through combined comparison with reanalysis background series and neighboring stations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00668.1},
volume = {25},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Hajima2014,
author = {Hajima, Tomohiro and Kawamiya, Michio and Watanabe, Michio and Kato, Etsushi and Tachiiri, Kaoru and Sugiyama, Masahiro and Watanabe, Shingo and Okajima, Hideki and Ito, Akinori},
doi = {10.1186/s40645-014-0029-y},
journal = {Progress in Earth and Planetary Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {29},
title = {{Modeling in Earth system science up to and beyond IPCC AR5}},
url = {http://www.progearthplanetsci.com/content/1/1/29},
volume = {1},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Hakim2016,
abstract = {Abstract An ?offline? approach to DA is used, where static ensemble samples are drawn from existing CMIP climate-model simulations to serve as the prior estimate of climate variables. We use linear, univariate forward models (?proxy system models (PSMs)?) that map climate variables to proxy measurements by fitting proxy data to 2 m air temperature from gridded instrumental temperature data; the linear PSMs are then used to predict proxy values from the prior estimate. Results for the LMR are compared against six gridded instrumental temperature data sets and 25{\%} of the proxy records are withheld from assimilation for independent verification. Results show broad agreement with previous reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere mean 2 m air temperature, with millennial-scale cooling, a multicentennial warm period around 1000 C.E., and a cold period coincident with the Little Ice Age (circa 1450?1800 C.E.). Verification against gridded instrumental data sets during 1880?2000 C.E. reveals greatest skill in the tropics and lowest skill over Northern Hemisphere land areas. Verification against independent proxy records indicates substantial improvement relative to the model (prior) data without proxy assimilation. As an illustrative example, we present multivariate reconstructed fields for a singular event, the 1808/1809 ?mystery? volcanic eruption, which reveal global cooling that is strongly enhanced locally due to the presence of the Pacific-North America wave pattern in the 500 hPa geopotential height field.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/2016JD024751},
author = {Hakim, Gregory J and Emile-Geay, Julien and Steig, Eric J and Noone, David and Anderson, David M and Tardif, Robert and Steiger, Nathan and Perkins, Walter A},
doi = {10.1002/2016JD024751},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {data assimilation,paleoclimate,proxies,volcanic eruption},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {6745--6764},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016JD024751},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@misc{Hall2019,
abstract = {In recent years, an evaluation technique for Earth System Models (ESMs) has arisen—emergent constraints (ECs)—which rely on strong statistical relationships between aspects of current climate and future change across an ESM ensemble. Combining the EC relationship with observations could reduce uncertainty surrounding future change. Here, we articulate a framework to assess ECs, and provide indicators whereby a proposed EC may move from a strong statistical relationship to confirmation. The primary indicators are verified mechanisms and out-of-sample testing. Confirmed ECs have the potential to improve ESMs by focusing attention on the variables most relevant to climate projections. Looking forward, there may be undiscovered ECs for extremes and teleconnections, and ECs may help identify climate system tipping points.},
author = {Hall, Alex and Cox, Peter and Huntingford, Chris and Klein, Stephen},
booktitle = {Nature Climate Change},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6},
issn = {17586798},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {269--278},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change}},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hall2012,
author = {Hall, Margaux J. and Weiss, David C.},
doi = {https://www.yjil.yale.edu/volume-37-issue-2},
journal = {Yale Journal of International Law},
number = {2},
pages = {310--366},
title = {{Avoiding Adaptation Apartheid: Climate Change Adaptation and Human Rights Law}},
url = {https://www.yjil.yale.edu/volume-37-issue-2},
volume = {37},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Halley1686,
author = {Halley, Edmond},
doi = {10.1098/rstl.1686.0026},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London},
number = {183},
pages = {153--168},
title = {{An Historical Account of the Trade Winds, and Monsoons, Observable in the Seas between and Near the Tropicks, with an Attempt to Assign the Phisical Cause of the Said Winds}},
volume = {1},
year = {1686}
}
@article{Halsnæs2018,
author = {Halsn{\ae}s, Kirsten and Kaspersen, Per Skougaard},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2323-y},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {dec},
number = {3-4},
pages = {491--506},
title = {{Decomposing the cascade of uncertainty in risk assessments for urban flooding reflecting critical decision-making issues}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2323-y},
volume = {151},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hamilton2013,
author = {Hamilton, Lawrence C. and Stampone, Mary D.},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00048.1},
issn = {1948-8327},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {112--119},
title = {{Blowin' in the Wind: Short-Term Weather and Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00048.1},
volume = {5},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hamilton2018,
author = {Hamilton, D. S. and Hantson, S. and Scott, C. E. and Kaplan, J. O. and Pringle, K. J. and Nieradzik, L. P. and Rap, A. and Folberth, G. A. and Spracklen, D. V. and Carslaw, K. S.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05592-9},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {3182},
title = {{Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05592-9},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hanna2020,
abstract = {Recent research shows increasing decadal ice mass losses from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and more generally from glaciers worldwide in the light of continued global warming. Here, in an update of our previous ISMASS paper (Hanna et al., 2013), we review recent observational estimates of ice sheet and glacier mass balance, and their related uncertainties, first briefly considering relevant monitoring methods. Focusing on the response to climate change during 1992–2018, and especially the post-IPCC AR5 period, we discuss recent changes in the relative contributions of ice sheets and glaciers to sea-level change. We assess recent advances in understanding of the relative importance of surface mass balance and ice dynamics in overall ice-sheet mass change. We also consider recent improvements in ice-sheet modelling, highlighting data-model linkages and the use of updated observational datasets in ice-sheet models. Finally, by identifying key deficiencies in the observations and models that hamper current understanding and limit reliability of future ice-sheet projections, we make recommendations to the research community for reducing these knowledge gaps. Our synthesis aims to provide a critical and timely review of the current state of the science in advance of the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report that is due in 2021.},
author = {Hanna, Edward and Pattyn, Frank and Navarro, Francisco and Favier, Vincent and Goelzer, Heiko and van den Broeke, Michiel R and Vizcaino, Miren and Whitehouse, Pippa L and Ritz, Catherine and Bulthuis, Kevin and Smith, Ben},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102976},
issn = {0012-8252},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
pages = {102976},
title = {{Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – Progress since AR5 and challenges}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825219303848},
volume = {201},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hansen1987,
abstract = {We analyze surface air temperature data from available meteorological stations with principal focus on the period 1880-1985. The temperature changes at mid- and high latitude stations separated by less than 1000 km are shown to be highly correlated; at low latitudes the correlation falls off more rapidly with distance for nearby stations. We combine the station data in a way which is designed to provide accurate long-term variations. Error estimates are based in part on studies of how accurately the actual station distributions are able to reproduce temperature change in a global data set produced by a three- dimensional general circulation model with realistic variability. We find that meaningful global temperature change can be obtained for the past century, despite the fact that the meteorological stations are confined mainly to continental and island locations. The results indicate a global warming of about 0.5{\o}-0.7{\o}C in the past century, with warming of similar magnitude in both hemispheres; the northern hemisphere result is similar to that found by several other investigators. A strong warming trend between 1965 and 1980 raised the global mean temperature in 1980 and 1981 to the highest level in the period of instrumental records. The warm period in recent years differs qualitatively from the earlier warm period centered about 1940; the earlier warming was focused at high northern latitudes, while the recent warnting is more global. We present selected graphs and maps of the temperature change in each of the eight latitude zones. A computer tape of the derived regional and global temperature changes is available from the authors.},
author = {Hansen, James and Lebedeff, Sergej},
doi = {10.1029/JD092iD11p13345},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {D11},
pages = {13345},
title = {{Global trends of measured surface air temperature}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/JD092iD11p13345},
volume = {92},
year = {1987}
}
@article{Hansen1988,
abstract = {We use a three-dimensional climate model, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model II with 8 {\o} by 10 {\o} horizontal resolution, to simulate the global climate effects of time-dependent variations of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Horizontal heat transport by the ocean is fixed at values estimated for today's climate, and the uptake of heat perturbations by the ocean beneath the mixed layer is approximated as vertical diffusion. We make a 100-year control run and perform experiments for three scenarios of atmospheric composition. These experiments begin in 1958 and include measured or estimated changes in atmospheric CO2, CH4, N20 , chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and stratospheric aerosols for the period from 1958 to the present. Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumes a reduced linear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000. Principal results from the experiments are as follows: (1) Global warnting to the level attained at the peak of the current interglacial and the previous interglacial occurs in all three scenarios; however, there are dramatic differences in the levels of future warming, depending on trace gas growth. (2) The greenhouse warnting should be clearly identifiable in the 1990s; the global warnting within the next several years is predicted to reach and maintain a level at least three standard deviations above the climatology of the 1950s. (3) Regions where an unambiguous warming appears earliest are low-latitude oceans, China and interior areas in Asia, and ocean areas near Antarctica and the north pole; aspects of the spatial and temporal distribution of predicted warming are clearly model-dependent, implying the possibility of model discrimination by the 1990s and thus improved predictions, if appropriate observations are acquired. (4) The temperature changes are sufficiently large to have major impacts on people and other parts of the biosphere, as shown by computed changes in the frequency of extreme events and by comparison with previous climate trends. (5) The model results suggest some near-term regional climate variations, despite the fixed ocean heat transport which suppresses many possible regional climate fluctuations; for example, during Ihe late 1980s and in the 1990s there is a tendency for greater than average warming in the southeastern and central Unit{\ldots}},
author = {Hansen, J and Fung, I and Lacis, A and Rind, D and Lebedeff, S and Ruedy, R and Russell, G. and Stone, P.},
doi = {10.1029/JD093iD08p09341},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {D8},
pages = {9341},
title = {{Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/JD093iD08p09341},
volume = {93},
year = {1988}
}
@article{Hansen2016a,
abstract = {Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.},
author = {Hansen, Gerrit and Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} and Auffhammer, Maximilian and Huggel, Christian and Cramer, Wolfgang},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-015-0760-y},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
keywords = {Attribution,Human and managed systems,Impact detection,Multiple drivers,Observed impacts of climate change},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {527--541},
title = {{Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-015-0760-y},
volume = {16},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hansen1981a,
abstract = {The global temperature rose by 0.2°C between the middle 1960's and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions In North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage. Copyright {\textcopyright} 1981 AAAS.},
author = {Hansen, J. and Johnson, D. and Lacis, A. and Lebedeff, S. and Lee, P. and Rind, D. and Russell, G.},
doi = {10.1126/science.213.4511.957},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {4511},
pages = {957--966},
title = {{Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.213.4511.957},
volume = {213},
year = {1981}
}
@article{Hansen2013b,
abstract = {Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO 2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1 ° C for a 4 W m −2 CO 2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4 ° C for a 4 W m −2 CO 2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO 2 , amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.},
author = {Hansen, James and Sato, Makiko and Russell, Gary and Kharecha, Pushker},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2012.0294},
issn = {1364-503X},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {2001},
pages = {20120294},
title = {{Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2012.0294},
volume = {371},
year = {2013}
}
@article{HARADA2016,
abstract = {ABSTRACT This study investigates the quality of the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), which is the second global reanalysis constructed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), comparing with other reanalyses and observational datasets. Improvements were found in the representation of atmospheric circulation on the isentropic surface and in the consistency of momentum budget based on the mass-weighted isentropic zonal mean (MIM) method. The representation of climate variability in several regions was also examined. In the tropics, the frequencies of high spatial correlations with precipitation estimated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) are clearly higher in JRA-55 than in JRA-25. The results indicate that JRA-55 generally improved the representation of phenomena on a wide range of space鈥搕ime scales, such as equatorial waves, and transient eddies in the storm track regions, compared with JRA-25 during the satellite era, and improved the temporal consistency compared with the older reanalyses throughout the reanalysis period. In the stratosphere, we found larger discrepancies between reanalyses for the extra-tropical stratosphere during the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter. Comparisons with radiosonde temperature revealed that JRA-55 has a smaller bias in temperature than the other reanalyses in the extra-tropical SH winter before 1979. Some issues in JRA-55 were also identified. The amplitude of equatorial waves and the Madden鈥揓ulian oscillation (MJO) in JRA-55 is weaker than the other reanalyses. JRA-55 shows unrealistic strong cooling in South America and Australia, although the spatial distribution of the long-term temperature trends in JRA-55 is the closest to an observational dataset of global historical surface temperature.},
author = {Harada, Yayoi and Kamahori, Hirotaka and Kobayashi, Chiaki and Endo, Hirokazu and Kobayashi, Shinya and Ota, Yukinari and Onoda, Hirokatsu and Onogi, Kazutoshi and Miyaoka, Kengo and Takahashi, Kiyotoshi},
doi = {10.2151/jmsj.2016-015},
issn = {0026-1165},
journal = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Series II},
keywords = {atmospheric circulation,climate variability,reanalysis,verification},
number = {3},
pages = {269--302},
title = {{The JRA-55 Reanalysis: Representation of Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Variability}},
url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/94/3/94{\_}2016-015/{\_}article},
volume = {94},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Harcourt2019,
abstract = {Animal telemetry is a powerful tool for observing marine animals and the physical environments that they inhabit, from coastal and continental shelf ecosystems to polar seas and open oceans. Satellite-linked biologgers and networks of acoustic receivers allow animals to be reliably monitored over scales of tens of meters to thousands of kilometers, giving insight into their habitat use, home range size, the phenology of migratory patterns and the biotic and abiotic factors that drive their distributions. Furthermore, physical environmental variables can be collected using animals as autonomous sampling platforms, increasing spatial and temporal coverage of global oceanographic observation systems. The use of animal telemetry, therefore, has the capacity to provide measures from a suite of essential ocean variables (EOVs) for improved monitoring of Earth's oceans. Here we outline the design features of animal telemetry systems, describe current applications and their benefits and challenges, and discuss future directions. We describe new analytical techniques that improve our ability to not only quantify animal movements but to also provide a powerful framework for comparative studies across taxa. We discuss the application of animal telemetry and its capacity to collect biotic and abiotic data, how the data collected can be incorporated into ocean observing systems, and the role these data can play in improved ocean management.},
author = {Harcourt, Rob and Sequeira, Ana M M and Zhang, Xuelei and Roquet, Fabien and Komatsu, Kosei and Heupel, Michelle and McMahon, Clive and Whoriskey, Fred and Meekan, Mark and Carroll, Gemma and Brodie, Stephanie and Simpfendorfer, Colin and Hindell, Mark and Jonsen, Ian and Costa, Daniel P and Block, Barbara and Muelbert, M{\^{o}}nica and Woodward, Bill and Weise, Mike and Aarestrup, Kim and Biuw, Martin and Boehme, Lars and Bograd, Steven J and Cazau, Dorian and Charrassin, Jean-Benoit and Cooke, Steven J and Cowley, Paul and de Bruyn, P J Nico and {Jeanniard du Dot}, Tiphaine and Duarte, Carlos and Egu{\'{i}}luz, V{\'{i}}ctor M and Ferreira, Luciana C and Fern{\'{a}}ndez-Gracia, Juan and Goetz, Kimberly and Goto, Yusuke and Guinet, Christophe and Hammill, Mike and Hays, Graeme C and Hazen, Elliott L and H{\"{u}}ckst{\"{a}}dt, Luis A and Huveneers, Charlie and Iverson, Sara and Jaaman, Saifullah Arifin and Kittiwattanawong, Kongkiat and Kovacs, Kit M and Lydersen, Christian and Moltmann, Tim and Naruoka, Masaru and Phillips, Lachlan and Picard, Baptiste and Queiroz, Nuno and Reverdin, Gilles and Sato, Katsufumi and Sims, David W and Thorstad, Eva B and Thums, Michele and Treasure, Anne M and Trites, Andrew W and Williams, Guy D and Yonehara, Yoshinari and Fedak, Mike A},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00326},
isbn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {326},
title = {{Animal-Borne Telemetry: An Integral Component of the Ocean Observing Toolkit}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00326},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@book{10.2307/j.ctt5hhddq,
abstract = {For much of the first half of the twentieth century, meteorology was more art than science, dependent on an individual forecaster's lifetime of local experience. In Weather by the Numbers, Kristine Harper tells the story of the transformation of meteorology from a "guessing science" into a sophisticated scientific discipline based on physics and mathematics. What made this possible was the development of the electronic digital computer; earlier attempts at numerical weather prediction had foundered on the human inability to solve nonlinear equations quickly enough for timely forecasting. After World War II, the combination of an expanded observation network developed for military purposes, newly trained meteorologists, savvy about math and physics, and the nascent digital computer created a new way of approaching atmospheric theory and weather forecasting. This transformation of a discipline, Harper writes, was the most important intellectual achievement of twentieth-century meteorology, and paved the way for the growth of computer-assisted modeling in all the sciences.},
address = {Cambridge, MA, USA},
author = {Harper, Kristine C},
isbn = {9780262517355},
pages = {320},
publisher = {MIT Press},
title = {{Weather by the Numbers: The Genesis of Modern Meteorology}},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt5hhddq},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Harries2001,
author = {Harries, John E. and Brindley, Helen E. and Sagoo, Pretty J. and Bantges, Richard J.},
doi = {10.1038/35066553},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {mar},
number = {6826},
pages = {355--357},
title = {{Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/35066553},
volume = {410},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Harrington2016,
abstract = {Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world's poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO 2 emissions.},
author = {Harrington, Luke J and Frame, David J and Fischer, Erich M and Hawkins, Ed and Joshi, Manoj and Jones, Chris D},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {055007},
title = {{Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=5/a=055007 http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=5/a=055007?key=crossref.477f55eb444e412d7b6db31d0ce2788b},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Harrington2018,
abstract = {Understanding how continuing increases in global mean temperature will exacerbate societal exposure to extreme weather events is a question of profound importance. However, determining population exposure to the impacts of heat extremes at 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C of global mean warming requires not only (1) a robust understanding of the physical climate system response, but also consideration of (2) projected changes to overall population size, as well as (3) changes to where people will live in the future. This analysis introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA). Our results reveal that, when population is kept at 2015 levels, exposure to heat considered severe in the present decade across SAEA will increase by a factor of 4.1 (2.4–9.6) and 15.8 (5.0–135) under a 1.5◦- and 2.0◦-warmer world, respectively. Furthermore, projected population changes by the end of the century under an SSP1 and SSP2 scenario can further exacerbate these changes by a factor of 1.2 (1.0–1.3) and 1.5 (1.3–1.7), respectively. However, a large fraction of this additional risk increase is not related to absolute increases in population, but instead attributed to changes in which regions exhibit continued population growth into the future. Further, this added impact of population redistribution will be twice as significant after 2.0 ◦C of warming, relative to stabilisation at 1.5 ◦C, due to the non-linearity of increases in heat exposure. Irrespective of the population scenario considered, continued African population expansion will place more people in locations where emergent changes to future heat extremes are exceptionally severe.},
author = {Harrington, Luke J. and Otto, Friederike E L},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa99},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate change emergence,Heat extremes,Paris agreement,Population exposure},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {034011},
title = {{Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa99},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Harris2013,
abstract = {Tackling climate change is a global challenge and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the organisation charged with communicating the risks, dangers and mechanisms underlying climate change to both policy makers and the general public. The IPCC has traditionally used words (e.g., ‘likely') in place of numbers (‘70 {\%} chance') to communicate risk and uncertainty information. The IPCC assessment reports have been published in six languages, but the consistency of the interpretation of these words cross-culturally has yet to be investigated. In two studies, we find considerable variation in the interpretation of the IPCC's probability expressions between the Chinese and British public. Whilst British interpretations differ somewhat from the IPCC's prescriptions, Chinese interpretations differ to a much greater degree and show more variation. These results add weight to continuing calls for the IPCC to make greater use of numbers in its forecasts.},
author = {Harris, Adam J L and Corner, Adam and Xu, Juemin and Du, Xiufang},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0975-1},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {2},
pages = {415--425},
title = {{Lost in translation? Interpretations of the probability phrases used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in China and the UK}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0975-1},
volume = {121},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Hartmann2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Hartmann, D L and {Klein Tank}, A M G and Rusticucci, M and Alexander, L V and Brönnimann, S and Charabi, Y and Dentener, F J and Dlugokencky, E J and Easterling, D R and Kaplan, A and Soden, B J and Thorne, P W and Wild, M and Zhai, P M},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {2},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.008},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {159--254},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Observations: Atmosphere and Surface}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Hasselmann1979,
address = {Bracknell, UK},
author = {Hasselmann, Klaus},
booktitle = {Meteorology Over the Tropical Oceans},
editor = {Shaw, D. B.},
pages = {251--259},
publisher = {Royal Meteorological Society},
title = {{On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies}},
year = {1979}
}
@article{Hassol2016,
author = {Hassol, Susan Joy and Torok, Simon and {Lewis Patrick}, Sophie Luganda},
doi = {https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/unnatural-disasters-communicating-linkages-between-extreme-events-and-climate},
journal = {WMO Bulletin},
number = {2},
title = {{(Un)Natural Disasters: Communicating Linkages Between Extreme Events and Climate Change}},
url = {https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/unnatural-disasters-communicating-linkages-between-extreme-events-and-climate},
volume = {65},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hattermann2018,
author = {Hattermann, F F and Vetter, T and Breuer, L and Su, Buda and Daggupati, P and Donnelly, C and Fekete, B and Fl{\"{o}}rke, F and Gosling, S N and Hoffmann, P and Liersch, S and Masaki, Y and Motovilov, Y and M{\"{u}}ller, C and Samaniego, L and Stacke, T and Wada, Y and Yang, T and Krysnaova, V},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {015006},
title = {{Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=1/a=015006?key=crossref.4072d6959b8e3cc09f052bbc93345592},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Haug2001,
author = {Haug, G. H. and Hughen, K.A. and Sigman, D.M. and Peterson, L.C. and R{\"{o}}hl, U.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1059725},
issn = {00368075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {5533},
pages = {1304--1308},
title = {{Southward Migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone Through the Holocene}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1059725},
volume = {293},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Haughton2015,
author = {Haughton, Ned and Abramowitz, Gab and Pitman, Andy and Phipps, Steven J},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2531-3},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {11-12},
pages = {3169--3181},
title = {{Weighting climate model ensembles for mean and variance estimates}},
url = {https://www.stevenphipps.com/publications/haughton2015.pdf http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2531-3},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Haunschild2016,
author = {Haunschild, Robin and Bornmann, Lutz and Marx, Werner},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0160393},
editor = {Glanzel, Wolfgang},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {e0160393},
title = {{Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics}},
url = {http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0160393},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hauser2016,
abstract = {The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probabilistic event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. The dry 2010 soil moisture alone has increased the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia sixfold, while climate change from 1960 to 2000 has approximately tripled it. The combined effect of climate change and 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk.We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed a necessary basis for the extreme heatwave.},
author = {Hauser, Mathias and Orth, Ren{\'{e}} and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL068036},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Russia 2010,event attribution,soil moisture},
number = {6},
pages = {2819--2826},
title = {{Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia}},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hausfather2019,
author = {Hausfather, Zeke and Drake, Henri F. and Abbott, Tristan and Schmidt, Gavin A.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL085378},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
pages = {e2019GL085378},
title = {{Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085378},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hausfather2020,
author = {Hausfather, Zeke and Peters, Glen P.},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jan},
number = {7792},
pages = {618--620},
title = {{Emissions – the ‘business as usual' story is misleading}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3},
volume = {577},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hausfather2020a,
author = {Hausfather, Zeke and Peters, Glen P.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2017124117},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {45},
pages = {27791--27792},
title = {{RCP8.5 is a problematic scenario for near-term emissions}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.2017124117},
volume = {117},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Haustein2017,
abstract = {We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.},
author = {Haustein, K. and Allen, M. R. and Forster, P. M. and Otto, F. E.L. L and Mitchell, D. M. and Matthews, H. D. and Frame, D. J.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {15417},
title = {{A real-time Global Warming Index}},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hawkins,
author = {Hawkins, E. and Frame, D. and Harrington, L.J. and Joshi, M. and King, A. and Rojas, M and Sutton, R.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086259},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {e2019GL086259},
title = {{Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086259},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hawkins2016a,
abstract = {Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth's mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations, it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. For example, observed global temperatures over the past decade are toward the lower end of the range of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations irrespective of what reference period is used, but exactly where they lie in the model distribution varies with the choice of reference period. Additionally, we demonstrate that projections of when particular temperature levels are reached, for example, 2 K above “preindustrial,” change by up to a decade depending on the choice of reference period. In this article, we discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections. We highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) choice to use a 1986–2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.},
author = {Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00154.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {963--980},
title = {{Connecting Climate Model Projections of Global Temperature Change with the Real World}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00154.1},
volume = {97},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hawkins2017,
abstract = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process agreed in Paris to limit global surface temperature rise to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.” But what period is preindustrial? Somewhat remarkably, this is not defined within the UNFCCC's many agreements and protocols. Nor is it defined in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in the evaluation of when particular temperature levels might be reached because no robust definition of the period exists. Here we discuss the important factors to consider when defining a preindustrial period, based on estimates of historical radiative forcings and the availability of climate observations. There is no perfect period, but we suggest that 1720–1800 is the most suitable choice when discussing global temperature limits. We then estimate the change in global average temperature since preindustrial using a range of approaches based on observations, radiative forcings, global climate model simulations, and proxy evidence. Our assessment is that this preindustrial period was likely 0.55°–0.80°C cooler than 1986–2005 and that 2015 was likely the first year in which global average temperature was more than 1°C above preindustrial levels. We provide some recommendations for how this assessment might be improved in the future and suggest that reframing temperature limits with a modern baseline would be inherently less uncertain and more policy relevant.},
author = {Hawkins, Ed and Ortega, Pablo and Suckling, Emma and Schurer, Andrew and Hegerl, Gabi and Jones, Phil and Joshi, Manoj and Osborn, Timothy J. and Masson-Delmotte, Val{\'{e}}rie and Mignot, Juliette and Thorne, Peter and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1841--1856},
title = {{Estimating Changes in Global Temperature since the Preindustrial Period}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1},
volume = {98},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hawkins2013,
abstract = {In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar was the first to demonstrate that the Earth's land surface was warming. Callendar also suggested that the production of carbon dioxide by the combustion of fossil fuels was responsible for much of this modern change in climate. This short note marks the 75th anniversary of Callendar's landmark study and demonstrates that his global land temperature estimates agree remarkably well with more recent analyses. {\textcopyright} 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.},
author = {Hawkins, Ed and Jones, Phil. D.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2178},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {Global temperatures,Guy Stewart Callendar,History},
month = {oct},
number = {677},
pages = {1961--1963},
title = {{On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2178},
volume = {139},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hawkins2012,
abstract = {The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Here we present a methodology for estimating ToE for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of ToE for surface air temperature (SAT) based on the CMIP3 global climate models. Consistent with previous studies we show that the median ToE occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. We also show that the median ToE in the Arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. A key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in ToE that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. The uncertainty in ToE is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. Alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median ToE (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. The SRES B1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in ToE in some regions. Our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2011GL050087},
author = {Hawkins, E and Sutton, R},
doi = {10.1029/2011GL050087},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate variability,temperature change,time of emergence},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {L01702},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Time of emergence of climate signals}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050087},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Hawkins2019,
abstract = {Abstract Weather observations taken every hour during the years 1883?1904 on the summit of Ben Nevis (1345 m above sea level) and in the town of Fort William in the Scottish Highlands have been transcribed from the original publications into digital form. More than 3,500 citizen scientist volunteers completed the digitization in less than 3 months using the WeatherRescue.org website. Over 1.5 million observations of atmospheric pressure, wet- and dry-bulb temperatures, precipitation and wind speed were recovered. These data have been quality controlled and are now made openly available, including hourly values of relative humidity derived from the digitized dry- and wet-bulb temperatures using modern hygrometric algorithms. These observations are one of the most detailed weather data collections available for anywhere in the UK in the Victorian era. In addition, 374 observations of aurora borealis seen by the meteorologists from the summit of Ben Nevis have been catalogued and this has improved the auroral record for studies of space weather.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/gdj3.79},
author = {Hawkins, Ed and Burt, Stephen and Brohan, Philip and Lockwood, Michael and Richardson, Harriett and Roy, Marjory and Thomas, Simon},
doi = {10.1002/gdj3.79},
issn = {2049-6060},
journal = {Geoscience Data Journal},
keywords = {Ben Nevis,Fort William,Scotland,atmospheric science,citizen science,climate,mountain climate,weather},
month = {nov},
number = {2},
pages = {160--173},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Hourly weather observations from the Scottish Highlands (1883–1904) rescued by volunteer citizen scientists}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.79 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gdj3.79},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hawkins2016,
abstract = {Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 {\%}/year compound increase in {\$}{\$}$\backslash$hbox {\{}CO{\}}{\_}2{\$}{\$}CO2levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified.},
author = {Hawkins, Ed and Smith, Robin S and Gregory, Jonathan M and Stainforth, David A},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {3807--3819},
title = {{Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hawkins2009,
author = {Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan},
doi = {10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {1095--1108},
title = {{The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1},
volume = {90},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Hays1976,
author = {Hays, J. D. and Imbrie, J. and Shackleton, N. J.},
doi = {10.1126/science.194.4270.1121},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {dec},
number = {4270},
pages = {1121--1132},
title = {{Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.194.4270.1121},
volume = {194},
year = {1976}
}
@article{cp-12-663-2016,
author = {Haywood, A M and Dowsett, H J and Dolan, A M and Rowley, D and Abe-Ouchi, A and Otto-Bliesner, B and Chandler, M A and Hunter, S J and Lunt, D J and Pound, M and Salzmann, U},
doi = {10.5194/cp-12-663-2016},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {3},
pages = {663--675},
title = {{The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design}},
url = {https://www.clim-past.net/12/663/2016/},
volume = {12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hazeleger2015,
abstract = {Projections and predictions of future climate today generally rely on ensembles of climate model simulations. This Perspective advocates a radically different approach, using numerical weather predictions and knowledge of past weather events.},
author = {Hazeleger, W. and van den Hurk, B.J.J.M. and Min, E. and van Oldenborgh, G.J. and Petersen, A.C. and Stainforth, D.A. and Vasileiadou, E. and Smith, L.A.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2450},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Projection and prediction},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {107--113},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Tales of future weather}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2450},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Head2014,
author = {Head, Lesley and Adams, Michael and Mcgregor, Helen V and Toole, Stephanie},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.255},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
number = {April},
pages = {175--197},
title = {{Climate change and Australia}},
volume = {5},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Hegdahl,
abstract = {The aim of this study is to investigate extreme precipitation events caused by atmospheric rivers and compare their flood impact in a warmer climate to current climate using an event-based storyline approach. The study was set up by selecting four high-precipitation events from 30 years of present and future climate simulations of the high-resolution global climate model EC-Earth. The two most extreme precipitation events within the selection area for the present and future climate were identified, and EC-Earth was rerun creating 10 perturbed realizations for each event. All realizations were further downscaled with the regional weather prediction model, AROME-MetCoOp. The events were thereafter used as input to the operational Norwegian flood-forecasting model for 37 selected catchments in western Norway, and the magnitude and the spatial pattern of floods were analyzed. The role of the hydrological initial conditions, which are important for the total flooding, were analyzed with a special emphasis on snow and soil moisture excess. The results show that the selected future extreme precipitation events affected more catchments with larger floods, compared to the events from present climate. In addition, multiple realizations of the meteorological forcing and four different hydrological initial conditions, for example, soil saturation and snow storage, were important for the estimation of the maximum flood level. The meteorological forcing (e.g., the internal variability/perturbed output) accounts for the highest contribution to the spread in flood magnitude; however, for some events and catchments the hydrological initial conditions affected the magnitudes of floods more than the meteorological forcing.},
author = {Hegdahl, Trine J. and Engeland, Kolbj{\o}rn and M{\"{u}}ller, Malte and Sillmann, Jana},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-19-0071.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {2003--2021},
title = {{An Event-Based Approach to Explore Selected Present and Future Atmospheric River-Induced Floods in Western Norway}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jhm/article/21/9/2003/346479/An-EventBased-Approach-to-Explore-Selected-Present},
volume = {21},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hegerl1997,
author = {Hegerl, G. C. and Hasselmann, K. and Cubasch, U. and Mitchell, J. F. B. and Roeckner, E. and Voss, R. and Waszkewitz, J.},
doi = {10.1007/s003820050186},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {613--634},
publisher = {Springer-Verlag},
title = {{Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s003820050186},
volume = {13},
year = {1997}
}
@incollection{Hegerl2010,
address = {Bern, Switzerland},
author = {Hegerl, G.C. and Hoegh-Guldberg, O. and Casassa, G. and Hoerling, M.P. and Kovats, R.S. and Parmesan, C. and Pierce, D.W. and Stott, P.A.},
booktitle = {Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change},
doi = {https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/ipcc_good_practice_guidance_paper_anthropogenic.pdf},
editor = {Stocker, T.F. and Field, C.B. and Qin, D. and Barros, V. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Midgley, P.M. and Ebi, K.L.},
pages = {1--8},
publisher = {IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, University of Bern},
title = {{Good Practice Guidance Paper on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthropogenic Climate Change}},
url = {https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/ipcc{\_}good{\_}practice{\_}guidance{\_}paper{\_}anthropogenic.pdf},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Hegerl2011,
author = {Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Luterbacher, Juerg and Gonz{\'{a}}lez-Rouco, Fidel and Tett, Simon F. B. and Crowley, Thomas and Xoplaki, Elena},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1057},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {99--103},
title = {{Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1057},
volume = {4},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Hegerl1996,
author = {Hegerl, Gabriele C. and von Storch, Hans and Hasselmann, Klaus and Santer, Benjamin D. and Cubasch, Ulrich and Jones, Philip D.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2281:DGGICC>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {2281--2306},
title = {{Detecting Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change with an Optimal Fingerprint Method}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442{\%}281996{\%}29009{\%}3C2281{\%}3ADGGICC{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {9},
year = {1996}
}
@article{10.3389/fmars.2019.00055,
abstract = {In 1999, the consortium on Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) set out to synthesize the hydrographic data collected by the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and the satellite sea surface height measurements into a complete and coherent description of the ocean, afforded by an ocean general circulation model. Twenty years later, the versatility of ECCO's estimation framework enables the production of global and regional ocean and sea-ice state estimates, that incorporate not only the initial suite of data and its successors, but nearly all data streams available today. New observations include measurements from Argo floats, marine mammal-based hydrography, satellite retrievals of ocean bottom pressure and sea surface salinity, as well as ice-tethered profiled data in polar regions. The framework also produces improved estimates of uncertain inputs, including initial conditions, surface atmospheric state variables, and mixing parameters. The freely available state estimates and related efforts are property-conserving, allowing closed budget calculations that are a requisite to detect, quantify, and understand the evolution of climate-relevant signals, as mandated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) protocol. The solutions can be reproduced by users through provision of the underlying modeling and assimilation machinery. Regional efforts have spun off that offer increased spatial resolution to better resolve relevant processes. Emerging foci of ECCO are on a global sea level changes, in particular contributions from polar ice sheets, and the increased use of biogeochemical and ecosystem data to constrain global cycles of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen. Challenges in the coming decade include provision of uncertainties, informing observing system design, globally increased resolution, and moving toward a coupled Earth system estimation with consistent momentum, heat and freshwater fluxes between the ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere and land.},
author = {Heimbach, Patrick and Fukumori, Ichiro and Hill, Christopher N and Ponte, Rui M and Stammer, Detlef and Wunsch, Carl and Campin, Jean-Michel and Cornuelle, Bruce and Fenty, Ian and Forget, Ga{\"{e}}l and K{\"{o}}hl, Armin and Mazloff, Matthew and Menemenlis, Dimitris and Nguyen, An T and Piecuch, Christopher and Trossman, David and Verdy, Ariane and Wang, Ou and Zhang, Hong},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00055},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {55},
title = {{Putting It All Together: Adding Value to the Global Ocean and Climate Observing Systems With Complete Self-Consistent Ocean State and Parameter Estimates}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00055},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Held2010,
abstract = {Abstract The fast and slow components of global warming in a comprehensive climate model are isolated by examining the response to an instantaneous return to preindustrial forcing. The response is characterized by an initial fast exponential decay with an e-folding time smaller than 5 yr, leaving behind a remnant that evolves more slowly. The slow component is estimated to be small at present, as measured by the global mean near-surface air temperature, and, in the model examined, grows to 0.4°C by 2100 in the A1B scenario from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), and then to 1.4°C by 2300 if one holds radiative forcing fixed after 2100. The dominance of the fast component at present is supported by examining the response to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 and by the excellent fit to the model?s ensemble mean twentieth-century evolution with a simple one-box model with no long times scales.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3466.1},
author = {Held, Isaac M and Winton, Michael and Takahashi, Ken and Delworth, Thomas and Zeng, Fanrong and Vallis, Geoffrey K},
doi = {10.1175/2009JCLI3466.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {9},
pages = {2418--2427},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Probing the Fast and Slow Components of Global Warming by Returning Abruptly to Preindustrial Forcing}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3466.1},
volume = {23},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Herger2018a,
author = {Herger, Nadja and Ang{\'{e}}lil, Oliver and Abramowitz, Gab and Donat, Markus and Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} and Lehmann, Karsten},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD028549},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5988--6004},
title = {{Calibrating Climate Model Ensembles for Assessing Extremes in a Changing Climate}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018JD028549},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Herger2018,
abstract = {Abstract. End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used. ]]{\textgreater}},
author = {Herger, Nadja and Abramowitz, Gab and Knutti, Reto and Ang{\'{e}}lil, Oliver and Lehmann, Karsten and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-135-2018},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {135--151},
title = {{Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/135/2018/},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Herger2015,
author = {Herger, Nadja and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL063569},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3486--3494},
title = {{Improved pattern scaling approaches for the use in climate impact studies}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL063569},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{10.3389/fmars.2019.00355,
abstract = {The Indian Ocean is warming faster than any of the global oceans and its climate is uniquely driven by the presence of a landmass at low latitudes, which causes monsoonal winds and reversing currents. The food, water, and energy security in the Indian Ocean rim countries and islands are intrinsically tied to its climate, with marine environmental goods and services, as well as trade within the basin, underpinning their economies. Hence, there are a range of societal needs for Indian Ocean observation arising from the influence of regional phenomena and climate change on, for instance, marine ecosystems, monsoon rains, and sea-level. The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), is a sustained observing system that monitors basin-scale ocean-atmosphere conditions, while providing flexibility in terms of emerging technologies and scientificand societal needs, and a framework for more regional and coastal monitoring. This paper reviews the societal and scientific motivations, current status, and future directions of IndOOS, while also discussing the need for enhanced coastal, shelf, and regional observations. The challenges of sustainability and implementation are also addressed, including capacity building, best practices, and integration of resources. The utility of IndOOS ultimately depends on the identification of, and engagement with, end-users and decision-makers and on the practical accessibility and transparency of data for a range of products and for decision-making processes. Therefore we highlight current progress, issues and challenges related to end user engagement with IndOOS, as well as the needs of the data assimilation and modeling communities. Knowledge of the status of the Indian Ocean climate and ecosystems and predictability of its future, depends on a wide range of socio-economic and environmental data, a significant part of which is provided by IndOOS.},
author = {Hermes, J C and Masumoto, Y and Beal, L M and Roxy, M K and Vialard, J and Andres, M and Annamalai, H and Behera, S and D'Adamo, N and Doi, T and Feng, M and Han, W and Hardman-Mountford, N and Hendon, H and Hood, R and Kido, S and Lee, C and Lee, T and Lengaigne, M and Li, J and Lumpkin, R and Navaneeth, K N and Milligan, B and McPhaden, M J and Ravichandran, M and Shinoda, T and Singh, A and Sloyan, B and Strutton, P G and Subramanian, A C and Thurston, S and Tozuka, T and Ummenhofer, C C and Unnikrishnan, A S and Venkatesan, R and Wang, D and Wiggert, J and Yu, L and Yu, W},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00355},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {355},
title = {{A Sustained Ocean Observing System in the Indian Ocean for Climate Related Scientific Knowledge and Societal Needs}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00355},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hernandez2020b,
abstract = {Modes of climate variability affect global and regional climates on different spatio-temporal scales, and they have important impacts on human activities and ecosystems. As these modes are a useful tool for simplifying the understanding of the climate system, it is crucial that we gain improved knowledge of their long-term past evolution and interactions over time to contextualise their present and future behaviour. We review the literature focused on proxy-based reconstructions of modes of climate variability during the Holocene (i.e., the last 11.7 thousand years) with a special emphasis on i) proxy-based reconstruction methods; ii) available proxy-based reconstructions of the main modes of variability, i.e., El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole; iii) major interactions between these modes; and iv) external forcing mechanisms related to the evolution of these modes. This review shows that modes of variability can be reconstructed using proxy-based records from a wide range of natural archives, but these reconstructions are scarce beyond the last millennium, partly due to the lack of robust chronologies with reduced dating uncertainties, technical issues related to proxy calibration, and difficulty elucidating their stationary impact (or not) on regional climates over time. While for each mode the available reconstructions tend to agree at mutidecadal timescales, they show notable disagreement on shorter timescales beyond the instrumental period. The reviewed evidence suggests that the intrinsic variability of modes can be modulated by external forcing, such as orbital, solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic forcing. The review also highlights some modes experience higher variability over the instrumental period, which is partly ascribed to anthropogenic forcing. These features stress the paramount importance of further studying their past variations using long climate-proxy records for the progress of climate science.},
author = {Hern{\'{a}}ndez, Armand and Martin-Puertas, Celia and Moffa-S{\'{a}}nchez, Paola and Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo and Ortega, Pablo and Blockley, Simon and Cobb, Kim M and Comas-Bru, Laia and Giralt, Santiago and Goosse, Hugues and Luterbacher, J{\"{u}}rg and Martrat, Belen and Muscheler, Raimund and Parnell, Andrew and Pla-Rabes, Sergi and Sjolte, Jesper and Scaife, Adam A and Swingedouw, Didier and Wise, Erika and Xu, Guobao},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286},
issn = {0012-8252},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
keywords = {AMO,Climate changes,ENSO,Holocene,IOD,Modes of variability,NAO,PDO,Palaeoclimatology,Proxy-based reconstructions,SAM},
pages = {103286},
title = {{Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825220303329},
volume = {209},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Herring2021,
abstract = {Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2019 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here . Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.},
author = {Herring, Stephanie C. and Christidis, Nikolaos and Hoell, Andrew and Hoerling, Martin P. and Stott, Peter A.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2019.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {S1--S116},
title = {{Explaining Extreme Events of 2019 from a Climate Perspective}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/1/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2019.1.xml},
volume = {102},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Hersbach2020a,
abstract = {Within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF is producing the ERA5 reanalysis which, once completed, will embody a detailed record of the global atmosphere, land surface and ocean waves from 1950 onwards. This new reanalysis replaces the ERA-Interim reanalysis (spanning 1979 onwards) which was started in 2006. ERA5 is based on the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) Cy41r2 which was operational in 2016. ERA5 thus benefits from a decade of developments in model physics, core dynamics and data assimilation. In addition to a significantly enhanced horizontal resolution of 31 km, compared to 80 km for ERA-Interim, ERA5 has hourly output throughout, and an uncertainty estimate from an ensemble (3-hourly at half the horizontal resolution). This paper describes the general set-up of ERA5, as well as a basic evaluation of characteristics and performance, with a focus on the dataset from 1979 onwards which is currently publicly available. Re-forecasts from ERA5 analyses show a gain of up to one day in skill with respect to ERA-Interim. Comparison with radiosonde and PILOT data prior to assimilation shows an improved fit for temperature, wind and humidity in the troposphere, but not the stratosphere. A comparison with independent buoy data shows a much improved fit for ocean wave height. The uncertainty estimate reflects the evolution of the observing systems used in ERA5. The enhanced temporal and spatial resolution allows for a detailed evolution of weather systems. For precipitation, global-mean correlation with monthly-mean GPCP data is increased from 67{\%} to 77{\%}. In general, low-frequency variability is found to be well represented and from 10 hPa downwards general patterns of anomalies in temperature match those from the ERA-Interim, MERRA-2 and JRA-55 reanalyses.},
author = {Hersbach, Hans and Bell, Bill and Berrisford, Paul and Hirahara, Shoji and Hor{\'{a}}nyi, Andr{\'{a}}s and Mu{\~{n}}oz‐Sabater, Joaqu{\'{i}}n and Nicolas, Julien and Peubey, Carole and Radu, Raluca and Schepers, Dinand and Simmons, Adrian and Soci, Cornel and Abdalla, Saleh and Abellan, Xavier and Balsamo, Gianpaolo and Bechtold, Peter and Biavati, Gionata and Bidlot, Jean and Bonavita, Massimo and Chiara, Giovanna and Dahlgren, Per and Dee, Dick and Diamantakis, Michail and Dragani, Rossana and Flemming, Johannes and Forbes, Richard and Fuentes, Manuel and Geer, Alan and Haimberger, Leo and Healy, Sean and Hogan, Robin J. and H{\'{o}}lm, El{\'{i}}as and Janiskov{\'{a}}, Marta and Keeley, Sarah and Laloyaux, Patrick and Lopez, Philippe and Lupu, Cristina and Radnoti, Gabor and Rosnay, Patricia and Rozum, Iryna and Vamborg, Freja and Villaume, Sebastien and Th{\'{e}}paut, Jean‐No{\"{e}}l},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3803},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {Copernicus Climate Change Service,ERA5,climate reanalysis,data assimilation,historical observations},
month = {jul},
number = {730},
pages = {1999--2049},
title = {{The ERA5 global reanalysis}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3803},
volume = {146},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Hewitson2014,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Hewitson, B. and Janetos, A.C. and Carter, T.R. and Giorgi, F. and Jones, R.G. and Kwon, W.-T. and Mearns, L.O. and Schipper, E.L.F. and van Aalst, M.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {21},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415386.001},
editor = {Barros, V.R. and Field, C.B. and Dokken, D.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Mach, K.J. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058163},
pages = {1133--1197},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Regional context}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Hewitt2012,
author = {Hewitt, Chris D. and Mason, Simon and Walland, David},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1745},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {831--832},
title = {{The Global Framework for Climate Services}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1745},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Hewitt2017,
author = {Hewitt, Helene T and Bell, Michael J and Chassignet, Eric P and Czaja, Arnaud and Ferreira, David and Griffies, Stephen M and Hyder, Pat and McClean, Julie L and New, Adrian L and Roberts, Malcolm J},
doi = {10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.11.002},
issn = {14635003},
journal = {Ocean Modelling},
keywords = {Atmosphere,Coupled,Ocean,Parameterisation,Resolution},
month = {dec},
pages = {120--136},
title = {{Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1463500317301774 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1463500317301774},
volume = {120},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hewitt2017a,
abstract = {To enable society to better manage the risks and opportunities arising from changes in climate, engagement between the users and the providers of climate information needs to be much more effective and should better link climate information with decision-making. T here is growing acceptance that the climate is changing, and increasing recognition and realization of the socio-economic benefits arising from using climate information to better inform decisions and policies across a wide range of sectors 1–3 . Climate services are being developed worldwide for an expanding group of decision-makers and policymakers to enable society to better manage the risks and opportunities arising from changes in climate, especially for those who are most vulnerable to climate-related hazards. The global community is actively addressing this through the United Nation's Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) 4,5 . An essential element of any climate service is for there to be effective engagement between the users and the providers of the service. However, there is growing recognition that this interface between the users and providers is the least-developed aspect of climate services 5 , and therefore urgently needs improving. An international team of experts has been enlisted under the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Commission for Climatology to both provide recommendations for good practice and successful strategies for effective and improved engagement. The recommendations were made by gathering and assessing examples of good uptake and use of climate information through effective user– provider engagement. Each example was documented using a common structure, identifying who is involved in the engagement, how the engagement is conducted, what it aims to achieve, and any recommendations for good practice. The examples represent a variety of approaches adopted across key climate-sensitive sectors, and across a range of timescales (the past and the future on timescales from monthly and seasonal through to multi-decadal) and spacial scales (global, regional, national and local, with wide geographic spread globally). A subset of examples was assessed in detail (Table 1; full descriptions in forthcoming WMO report Good Practices for Climate Services User Engagement) to lead to the recommendations presented below, with three broad categories of engagement (Fig. 1) identified and described in the following sections.},
author = {Hewitt, Chris D. and Stone, Roger C. and Tait, Andrew B.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3378},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {9},
title = {{Improving the use of climate information in decision-making}},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hidy2019,
author = {Hidy, G. M.},
doi = {10.1007/s41810-019-00039-0},
issn = {2510-375X},
journal = {Aerosol Science and Engineering},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {1--20},
title = {{Atmospheric Aerosols: Some Highlights and Highlighters, 1950 to 2018}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41810-019-00039-0},
volume = {3},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hine2015,
author = {Hine, Donald W. and Phillips, Wendy J. and Cooksey, Ray and Reser, Joseph P. and Nunn, Patrick and Marks, Anthony D.G. and Loi, Natasha M. and Watt, Sue E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.11.002},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {jan},
pages = {1--11},
title = {{Preaching to different choirs: How to motivate dismissive, uncommitted, and alarmed audiences to adapt to climate change?}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378015300662},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ho2019c,
author = {Ho, Emily and Budescu, David V. and Bosetti, Valentina and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Keller, Klaus},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02500-y},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {545--561},
title = {{Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-019-02500-y},
volume = {155},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hochman2017,
abstract = {Global food security requires that grain yields continue to increase to 2050, yet yields have stalled in many developed countries. This disturbing trend has so far been only partially explained. Here, we show that wheat yields in Australia have stalled since 1990 and investigate the extent to which climate trends account for this observation. Based on simulation of 50 sites with quality weather data, that are representative of the agro-ecological zones and of soil types in the grain zone, we show that water-limited yield potential declined by 27{\%} over a 26 year period from 1990 to 2015. We attribute this decline to reduced rainfall and to rising temperatures while the positive effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations prevented a further 4{\%} loss relative to 1990 yields. Closer investigation of three sites revealed the nature of the simulated response of water-limited yield to water availability, water stress and maximum temperatures. At all three sites, maximum temperature hastened time from sowing to flowering and to maturity and reduced grain number per m2 and average weight per grain. This 27{\%} climate-driven decline in water-limited yield is not fully expressed in actual national yields. This is due to an unprecedented rate of technology-driven gains closing the gap between actual and water-limited potential yields by 25 kg ha-1 yr-1 enabling relative yields to increase from 39{\%} in 1990 to 55{\%} in 2015. It remains to be seen whether technology can continue to maintain current yields, let alone increase them to those required by 2050.},
author = {Hochman, Zvi and Gobbett, David L. and Horan, Heidi},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13604},
isbn = {1354-1013},
issn = {13652486},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {agricultural technology advance,atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration,climate change,crop yield,food security,yield trends},
number = {5},
pages = {2071--2081},
title = {{Climate trends account for stalled wheat yields in Australia since 1990}},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hoegh-Guldberg2010,
author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, O. and Bruno, J. F.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1189930},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jun},
number = {5985},
pages = {1523--1528},
title = {{The Impact of Climate Change on the World's Marine Ecosystems}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1189930},
volume = {328},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Hoegh-Guldberg2019,
abstract = {Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.},
author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, O. and Jacob, D. and Taylor, M. and {Guill{\'{e}}n Bola{\~{n}}os}, T. and Bindi, M. and Brown, S. and Camilloni, I. A. and Diedhiou, A. and Djalante, R. and Ebi, K. and Engelbrecht, F. and Guiot, J. and Hijioka, Y. and Mehrotra, S. and Hope, C. W. and Payne, A. J. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Seneviratne, S. I. and Thomas, A. and Warren, R. and Zhou, G.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaw6974},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {sep},
number = {6459},
pages = {eaaw6974},
title = {{The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aaw6974},
volume = {365},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hoekstra2003,
author = {Hoekstra, Rutger and van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M.},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00059-2},
issn = {01409883},
journal = {Energy Economics},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {39--64},
title = {{Comparing structural decomposition analysis and index}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140988302000592},
volume = {25},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Hoesly2018,
abstract = {Abstract. We present a new data set of annual historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon – BC, and organic carbon – OC), and CO2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.},
author = {Hoesly, Rachel M. and Smith, Steven J. and Feng, Leyang and Klimont, Zbigniew and Janssens-Maenhout, Greet and Pitkanen, Tyler and Seibert, Jonathan J. and Vu, Linh and Andres, Robert J. and Bolt, Ryan M. and Bond, Tami C. and Dawidowski, Laura and Kholod, Nazar and Kurokawa, June-ichi and Li, Meng and Liu, Liang and Lu, Zifeng and Moura, Maria Cecilia P. and O'Rourke, Patrick R. and Zhang, Qiang},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {369--408},
title = {{Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/11/369/2018/},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hoffmann2019a,
abstract = {The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF's) next-generation reanalysis ERA5 provides many improvements, but it also confronts the community with a "big data" challenge. Data storage requirements for ERA5 increase by a factor of ∼80 compared with the ERA-Interim reanalysis, introduced a decade ago. Considering the significant increase in resources required for working with the new ERA5 data set, it is important to assess its impact on Lagrangian transport simulations. To quantify the differences between transport simulations using ERA5 and ERA-Interim data, we analyzed comprehensive global sets of 10-day forward trajectories for the free troposphere and the stratosphere for the year 2017. The new ERA5 data have a considerable impact on the simulations. Spatial transport deviations between ERA5 and ERA-Interim trajectories are up to an order of magnitude larger than those caused by parameterized diffusion and subgrid-scale wind fluctuations after 1 day and still up to a factor of 2-3 larger after 10 days. Depending on the height range, the spatial differences between the trajectories map into deviations as large as 3 K in temperature, 30 {\%} in specific humidity, 1.8 {\%} in potential temperature, and 50 {\%} in potential vorticity after 1 day. Part of the differences between ERA5 and ERA-Interim is attributed to the better spatial and temporal resolution of the ERA5 reanalysis, which allows for a better representation of convective updrafts, gravity waves, tropical cyclones, and other meso- to synoptic-scale features of the atmosphere. Another important finding is that ERA5 trajectories exhibit significantly improved conservation of potential temperature in the stratosphere, pointing to an improved consistency of ECMWF's forecast model and observations that leads to smaller data assimilation increments. We conducted a number of downsampling experiments with the ERA5 data, in which we reduced the numbers of meteorological time steps, vertical levels, and horizontal grid points. Significant differences remain present in the transport simulations, if we downsample the ERA5 data to a resolution similar to ERA-Interim. This points to substantial changes of the forecast model, observations, and assimilation system of ERA5 in addition to improved resolution. A comparison of two Lagrangian trajectory models allowed us to assess the readiness of the codes and workflows to handle the comprehensive ERA5 data and to demonstrate the consistency of the simulation results. Our results will help to guide future Lagrangian transport studies attempting to navigate the increased computational complexity and leverage the considerable benefits and improvements of ECMWF's new ERA5 data set.},
author = {Hoffmann, Lars and G{\"{u}}nther, Gebhard and Li, Dan and Stein, Olaf and Wu, Xue and Griessbach, Sabine and Heng, Yi and Konopka, Paul and M{\"{u}}ller, Rolf and Vogel, B{\"{a}}rbel and Wright, Jonathon S.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-19-3097-2019},
issn = {16807324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {3097--3214},
title = {{From ERA-Interim to ERA5: The considerable impact of ECMWF's next-generation reanalysis on Lagrangian transport simulations}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/3097/2019/},
volume = {19},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hollis2019,
author = {Hollis, Christopher J. and {Dunkley Jones}, Tom and Anagnostou, Eleni and Bijl, Peter K. and Cramwinckel, Margot J. and Cui, Ying and Dickens, Gerald R. and Edgar, Kirsty M. and Eley, Yvette and Evans, David and Foster, Gavin L. and Frieling, Joost and Inglis, Gordon N. and Kennedy, Elizabeth M. and Kozdon, Reinhard and Lauretano, Vittoria and Lear, Caroline H. and Littler, Kate and Lourens, Lucas and Meckler, A. Nele and Naafs, B. David A. and P{\"{a}}like, Heiko and Pancost, Richard D. and Pearson, Paul N. and R{\"{o}}hl, Ursula and Royer, Dana L. and Salzmann, Ulrich and Schubert, Brian A. and Seebeck, Hannu and Sluijs, Appy and Speijer, Robert P. and Stassen, Peter and Tierney, Jessica and Tripati, Aradhna and Wade, Bridget and Westerhold, Thomas and Witkowski, Caitlyn and Zachos, James C. and Zhang, Yi Ge and Huber, Matthew and Lunt, Daniel J.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-3149-2019},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {3149--3206},
title = {{The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: methodologies for selection, compilation and analysis of latest Paleocene and early Eocene climate proxy data, incorporating version 0.1 of the DeepMIP database}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/3149/2019/},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00254.1,
abstract = { Observations of Earth from space have been made for over 40 years and have contributed to advances in many aspects of climate science. However, attempts to exploit this wealth of data are often hampered by a lack of homogeneity and continuity and by insufficient understanding of the products and their uncertainties. There is, therefore, a need to reassess and reprocess satellite datasets to maximize their usefulness for climate science. The European Space Agency has responded to this need by establishing the Climate Change Initiative (CCI). The CCI will create new climate data records for (currently) 13 essential climate variables (ECVs) and make these open and easily accessible to all. Each ECV project works closely with users to produce time series from the available satellite observations relevant to users' needs. A climate modeling users' group provides a climate system perspective and a forum to bring the data and modeling communities together. This paper presents the CCI program. It outlines its benefit and presents approaches and challenges for each ECV project, covering clouds, aerosols, ozone, greenhouse gases, sea surface temperature, ocean color, sea level, sea ice, land cover, fire, glaciers, soil moisture, and ice sheets. It also discusses how the CCI approach may contribute to defining and shaping future developments in Earth observation for climate science. },
author = {Hollmann, R and Merchant, C J and Saunders, R and Downy, C and Buchwitz, M and Cazenave, A and Chuvieco, E and Defourny, P and de Leeuw, G and Forsberg, R and Holzer-Popp, T and Paul, F and Sandven, S and Sathyendranath, S and van Roozendael, M and Wagner, W},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00254.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {10},
pages = {1541--1552},
title = {{The ESA Climate Change Initiative: Satellite Data Records for Essential Climate Variables}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00254.1},
volume = {94},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Honisch2012a,
abstract = {Ocean acidification may have severe consequences for marine ecosystems; however, assessing its future impact is difficult because laboratory experiments and field observations are limited by their reduced ecologic complexity and sample period, respectively. In contrast, the geological record contains long-term evidence for a variety of global environmental perturbations, including ocean acidification plus their associated biotic responses. We review events exhibiting evidence for elevated atmospheric CO2, global warming, and ocean acidification over the past {\~{}}300 million years of Earth's history, some with contemporaneous extinction or evolutionary turnover among marine calcifiers. Although similarities exist, no past event perfectly parallels future projections in terms of disrupting the balance of ocean carbonate chemistry—a consequence of the unprecedented rapidity of CO2 release currently taking place.},
author = {Honisch, B. and Ridgwell, Andy and Schmidt, Daniela N and Thomas, Ellen and Gibbs, Samantha J and Sluijs, Appy and Zeebe, Richard and Kump, Lee and Martindale, Rowan C and Greene, Sarah E and Kiessling, Wolfgang and Ries, Justin and Zachos, James C and Royer, Dana L and Barker, Stephen and Marchitto, Thomas M and Moyer, Ryan and Pelejero, Carles and Ziveri, Patrizia and Foster, Gavin L and Williams, Branwen},
doi = {10.1126/science.1208277},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {mar},
number = {6072},
pages = {1058--1063},
title = {{The Geological Record of Ocean Acidification}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/335/6072/1058.abstract https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1208277},
volume = {335},
year = {2012}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1,
abstract = {AbstractThe process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate modeling community. In climate models, the variety and complexity of physical processes involved, and their interplay through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, must be summarized in a series of approximate submodels. Most submodels depend on uncertain parameters. Tuning consists of adjusting the values of these parameters to bring the solution as a whole into line with aspects of the observed climate. Tuning is an essential aspect of climate modeling with its own scientific issues, which is probably not advertised enough outside the community of model developers. Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections. Here, we present the definition and rationale behind model tuning, review specific methodological aspects, and survey the diversity of tuning approaches used in current climate models. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called objective methods in climate model tuning. We discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.},
author = {Hourdin, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Mauritsen, Thorsten and Gettelman, Andrew and Golaz, Jean-Christophe and Balaji, Venkatramani and Duan, Qingyun and Folini, Doris and Ji, Duoying and Klocke, Daniel and Qian, Yun and Rauser, Florian and Rio, Catherine and Tomassini, Lorenzo and Watanabe, Masahiro and Williamson, Daniel},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {3},
pages = {589--602},
title = {{The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1},
volume = {98},
year = {2017}
}
@article{House1986a,
abstract = {We review here the history of satellite missions and their measurements of the earth radiation budget from the beginning of the space age until the present time. The survey emphasizes the early struggle to develop instrument systems to monitor reflected shortwave and emitted long-wave exitances from the earth and the problems associated with the interpretation of these observations from space. In some instances, valuable data sets were developed from satellite measurements whose instruments were not specifically designed for earth radiation budget observations. The effort of understanding the earth radiation budget has been the work of many people from different countries of the world, an effort of proud accomplishment.},
author = {House, Frederick B. and Gruber, Arnold and Hunt, Garry E. and Mecherikunnel, Ann T.},
doi = {10.1029/RG024i002p00357},
issn = {8755-1209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
number = {2},
pages = {357--377},
title = {{History of satellite missions and measurements of the Earth Radiation Budget (1957–1984)}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/RG024i002p00357},
volume = {24},
year = {1986}
}
@article{Howe2015,
author = {Howe, Peter D. and Mildenberger, Matto and Marlon, Jennifer R. and Leiserowitz, Anthony},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2583},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {596--603},
title = {{Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2583},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Howell2013,
abstract = {This exploratory mixed-methods study uses in-depth interviews to investigate the values, motivations, and routes to engagement of UK citizens who have adopted lower-carbon lifestyles. Social justice, community, frugality, and personal integrity were common themes that emerged from the transcripts. Concern about 'the environment' per se is not the primary motivation for most interviewees' action. Typically, they are more concerned about the plight of poorer people who will suffer from climate change. Although biospheric values are important to the participants, they tended to score altruistic values significantly higher on a survey instrument. Thus, it may not be necessary to promote biospheric values to encourage lower-carbon lifestyles. Participants' narratives of how they became engaged with climate action reveal links to human rights issues and groups as much as environmental organisations and positive experiences in nature. Some interviewees offered very broad (positive) visions of what 'a low-carbon lifestyle' means to them. This, and the fact that 'climate change' is not necessarily seen as interesting even by these highly engaged people, reveals a need for climate change mitigation campaigns to promote a holistic view of a lower-carbon future, rather than simply offering a 'to do' list to 'combat climate change'. {\textcopyright} 2012 Elsevier Ltd.},
author = {Howell, Rachel A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.015},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
keywords = {Climate change mitigation,Environmentally responsible behaviour,Lower-carbon lifestyles,Motivations,Pro-environmental behaviour,Values},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {281--290},
title = {{It's not (just) “the environment, stupid!” Values, motivations, and routes to engagement of people adopting lower-carbon lifestyles}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378012001288},
volume = {23},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Huang2017,
abstract = {The monthly global 2° × 2° Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) has been revised and updated from version 4 to version 5. This update incorporates a new release of ICOADS release 3.0 (R3.0), a decade of near-surface data from Argo floats, and a new estimate of centennial sea ice from HadISST2. A number of choices in aspects of quality control, bias adjustment, and interpolation have been substantively revised. The resulting ERSST estimates have more realistic spatiotemporal variations, better representation of high-latitude SSTs, and ship SST biases are now calculated relative to more accurate buoy measurements, while the global long-term trend remains about the same. Progressive experiments have been undertaken to highlight the effects of each change in data source and analysis technique upon the final product. The reconstructed SST is systematically decreased by 0.077°C, as the reference data source is switched from ship SST in ERSSTv4 to modern buoy SST in ERSSTv5. Furthermore, high-latitude SSTs are decreased by 0.1°–0.2°C by using sea ice concentration from HadISST2 over HadISST1. Changes arising from remaining innovations are mostly important at small space and time scales, primarily having an impact where and when input observations are sparse. Cross validations and verifications with independent modern observations show that the updates incorporated in ERSSTv5 have improved the representation of spatial variability over the global oceans, the magnitude of El Ni{\~{n}}o and La Ni{\~{n}}a events, and the decadal nature of SST changes over 1930s–40s when observation instruments changed rapidly. Both long- (1900–2015) and short-term (2000–15) SST trends in ERSSTv5 remain significant as in ERSSTv4.},
author = {Huang, Boyin and Thorne, Peter W. and Banzon, Viva F. and Boyer, Tim and Chepurin, Gennady and Lawrimore, Jay H. and Menne, Matthew J. and Smith, Thomas M. and Vose, Russell S. and Zhang, Huai-Min},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {8179--8205},
title = {{Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Huggel2015,
abstract = {The issue of climate related loss and damage (L{\&}D) has re-emerged and gained significant traction in international climate policy in recent years. However, many aspects remain unclear, including how aspects of liability and compensation in relation with L{\&}D will be treated under the UNFCCC, human rights and environmental law. Furthermore, the type of scientific evidence required to link climate change impacts for each of these L{\&}D mechanisms needs to be clarified. Here we analyze to which degree different types of scientific evidence can inform L{\&}D discussions and policies. We distinguish between (i) L{\&}D observation, (ii) understanding causation, and (iii) linking L{\&}D to anthropogenic emissions through attribution studies. We draw on three case studies from Australia, Colombia and Alaska to demonstrate the relevance of the different types of evidence. We then discuss the potential and limitations of these types of scientific evidence, in particular attribution, for informing current L{\&}D discussions and policies. Attribution (iii) sets the highest bar, but also provides the most complete set of information to support adaptation, risk reduction and L{\&}D policies. However, rather than suggesting that attribution is a necessary requirement for L{\&}D policies we want to highlight its potential for facilitating a more thematically structured, and thus hopefully a more constructive, policy and justice discussion.},
author = {Huggel, Christian and Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} and Eicken, Hajo and Hansen, Gerrit},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1441-z},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {453--467},
title = {{Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1441-z},
volume = {133},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hughes2018,
abstract = {Tropical reef systems are transitioning to a new era in which the interval between recurrent bouts of coral bleaching is too short for a full recovery of mature assemblages. We analyzed bleaching records at 100 globally distributed reef locations from 1980 to 2016. The median return time between pairs of severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years. As global warming has progressed, tropical sea surface temperatures are warmer now during current La Ni{\~{n}}a conditions than they were during El Ni{\~{n}}o events three decades ago. Consequently, as we transition to the Anthropocene, coral bleaching is occurring more frequently in all El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation phases, increasing the likelihood of annual bleaching in the coming decades.},
author = {Hughes, Terry P. and Anderson, Kristen D. and Connolly, Sean R. and Heron, Scott F. and Kerry, James T. and Lough, Janice M. and Baird, Andrew H. and Baum, Julia K. and Berumen, Michael L. and Bridge, Tom C. and Claar, Danielle C. and Eakin, C. Mark and Gilmour, James P. and Graham, Nicholas A. J. and Harrison, Hugo and Hobbs, Jean-Paul A. and Hoey, Andrew S. and Hoogenboom, Mia and Lowe, Ryan J. and McCulloch, Malcolm T. and Pandolfi, John M. and Pratchett, Morgan and Schoepf, Verena and Torda, Gergely and Wilson, Shaun K.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aan8048},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jan},
number = {6371},
pages = {80--83},
title = {{Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aan8048},
volume = {359},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hulme2018,
annote = {10.1215/22011919-4385599},
author = {Hulme, Mike},
doi = {10.1215/22011919-4385599},
issn = {2201-1919},
journal = {Environmental Humanities},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {330--337},
title = {{“Gaps” in Climate Change Knowledge}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/22011919-4385599 https://read.dukeupress.edu/environmental-humanities/article/10/1/330/134697/Gaps-in-Climate-Change-KnowledgeDo-They-Exist-Can},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@book{Hulme2009,
address = {Cambridge, UK},
annote = {Times cited: 403},
author = {Hulme, Mike},
isbn = {9780521727327},
pages = {432},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Why We Disagree about Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity}},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Huppmann2018,
author = {Huppmann, Daniel and Rogelj, Joeri and Kriegler, Elmar and Krey, Volker and Riahi, Keywan},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1027--1030},
title = {{A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0317-4},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hurrell2009,
author = {Hurrell, James and Meehl, Gerald A. and Bader, David and Delworth, Thomas L. and Kirtman, Ben and Wielicki, Bruce},
doi = {10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1819--1832},
title = {{A Unified Modeling Approach to Climate System Prediction}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1},
volume = {90},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Hurtt2019,
abstract = {50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.]]{\textgreater}},
author = {Hurtt, George C. and Chini, Louise and Sahajpal, Ritvik and Frolking, Steve and Bodirsky, Benjamin L. and Calvin, Katherine and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Fisk, Justin and Fujimori, Shinichiro and {Klein Goldewijk}, Kees and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Peter and Heinimann, Andreas and Humpen{\"{o}}der, Florian and Jungclaus, Johan and Kaplan, Jed O. and Kennedy, Jennifer and Krisztin, Tam{\'{a}}s and Lawrence, David and Lawrence, Peter and Ma, Lei and Mertz, Ole and Pongratz, Julia and Popp, Alexander and Poulter, Benjamin and Riahi, Keywan and Shevliakova, Elena and Stehfest, Elke and Thornton, Peter and Tubiello, Francesco N. and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Zhang, Xin},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {5425--5464},
title = {{Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/5425/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hurtt2011,
author = {Hurtt, G. C. and Chini, L. P. and Frolking, S. and Betts, R. A. and Feddema, J. and Fischer, G. and Fisk, J. P. and Hibbard, K. and Houghton, R. A. and Janetos, A. and Jones, C. D. and Kindermann, G. and Kinoshita, T. and {Klein Goldewijk}, Kees and Riahi, K. and Shevliakova, E. and Smith, S. and Stehfest, E. and Thomson, A. and Thornton, P. and van Vuuren, D. P. and Wang, Y. P.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {1-2},
pages = {117--161},
title = {{Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2},
volume = {109},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Hyder2018,
abstract = {The Southern Ocean is a pivotal component of the global climate system yet it is poorly represented in climate models, with significant biases in upper-ocean temperatures, clouds and winds. Combining Atmospheric and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP5/CMIP5) simulations, with observations and equilibrium heat budget theory, we show that across the CMIP5 ensemble variations in sea surface temperature biases in the 40–60°S Southern Ocean are primarily caused by AMIP5 atmospheric model net surface flux bias variations, linked to cloud-related short-wave errors. Equilibration of the biases involves local coupled sea surface temperature bias feedbacks onto the surface heat flux components. In combination with wind feedbacks, these biases adversely modify upper-ocean thermal structure. Most AMIP5 atmospheric models that exhibit small net heat flux biases appear to achieve this through compensating errors. We demonstrate that targeted developments to cloud-related parameterisations provide a route to better represent the Southern Ocean in climate models and projections.},
author = {Hyder, Patrick and Edwards, John M and Allan, Richard P and Hewitt, Helene T and Bracegirdle, Thomas J and Gregory, Jonathan M and Wood, Richard A and Meijers, Andrew J S and Mulcahy, Jane and Field, Paul and Furtado, Kalli and Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro and Williams, Keith D and Copsey, Dan and Josey, Simon A and Liu, Chunlei and Roberts, Chris D and Sanchez, Claudio and Ridley, Jeff and Thorpe, Livia and Hardiman, Steven C and Mayer, Michael and Berry, David I and Belcher, Stephen E},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {3625},
title = {{Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{ICONICS2021,
author = {ICONICS},
title = {{International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios}},
url = {http://iconics-ssp.org},
urldate = {2021-03-08},
year = {2021}
}
@techreport{InternationalEnergyAgency2020,
address = {Paris, France},
author = {IEA},
doi = {https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020},
keywords = {IEA2020},
pages = {461},
publisher = {International Energy Agency (IEA)},
title = {{World Energy Outlook 2020}},
url = {https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ingleby2021,
abstract = {Abstract Aircraft reports are an important source of information for numerical weather prediction (NWP). From March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a large loss of aircraft data but despite this it is difficult to see any evidence of significant degradation in the forecast skill of global NWP systems. This apparent discrepancy is partly because forecast skill is very variable, showing both day-to-day noise and lower frequency dependence on the mean state of the atmosphere. The definitive way to cleanly assess aircraft impact is using a data denial experiment, which shows that the largest impact is in the upper troposphere. The method used by Chen (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl088613) to estimate the impact of COVID-19 is oversimplistic. Chen understates the huge importance of satellite data for modern weather forecasts and raises more alarm than necessary about a drop in forecast accuracy.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090699},
author = {Ingleby, Bruce and Candy, Brett and Eyre, John and Haiden, Thomas and Hill, Christopher and Isaksen, Lars and Kleist, Daryl and Smith, Fiona and Steinle, Peter and Taylor, Stewart and Tennant, Warren and Tingwell, Christopher},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL090699},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {COVID-19,aircraft data,data assimilation,numerical weather prediction,observation impact,satellite data},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {e2020GL090699},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The Impact of COVID-19 on Weather Forecasts: A Balanced View}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090699},
volume = {48},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Inness2019,
abstract = {The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis is the latest global reanalysis dataset of atmospheric composition produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), consisting of three-dimensional time-consistent atmospheric composition fields, including aerosols and chemical species. The dataset currently covers the period 2003-2016 and will be extended in the future by adding 1 year each year. A reanalysis for greenhouse gases is being produced separately. The CAMS reanalysis builds on the experience gained during the production of the earlier Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis and CAMS interim reanalysis. Satellite retrievals of total column CO; tropospheric column NO2; aerosol optical depth (AOD); and total column, partial column and profile ozone retrievals were assimilated for the CAMS reanalysis with ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System. The new reanalysis has an increased horizontal resolution of about 80 km and provides more chemical species at a better temporal resolution (3-hourly analysis fields, 3-hourly forecast fields and hourly surface forecast fields) than the previously produced CAMS interim reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis has smaller biases compared with most of the independent ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and aerosol optical depth observations used for validation in this paper than the previous two reanalyses and is much improved and more consistent in time, especially compared to the MACC reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis is a dataset that can be used to compute climatologies, study trends, evaluate models, benchmark other reanalyses or serve as boundary conditions for regional models for past periods.},
author = {Inness, Antje and Ades, Melanie and Agust{\'{i}}-Panareda, Anna and Barr, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Benedictow, Anna and Blechschmidt, Anne Marlene and {Jose Dominguez}, Juan and Engelen, Richard and Eskes, Henk and Flemming, Johannes and Huijnen, Vincent and Jones, Luke and Kipling, Zak and Massart, Sebastien and Parrington, Mark and Peuch, Vincent Henri and Razinger, Miha and Remy, Samuel and Schulz, Michael and Suttie, Martin},
doi = {10.5194/acp-19-3515-2019},
issn = {16807324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {6},
pages = {3515--3556},
title = {{The CAMS reanalysis of atmospheric composition}},
volume = {19},
year = {2019}
}
@article{amt-9-3491-2016,
author = {Inoue, M and Morino, I and Uchino, O and Nakatsuru, T and Yoshida, Y and Yokota, T and Wunch, D and Wennberg, P O and Roehl, C M and Griffith, D W T and Velazco, V A and Deutscher, N M and Warneke, T and Notholt, J and Robinson, J and Sherlock, V and Hase, F and Blumenstock, T and Rettinger, M and Sussmann, R and Kyr{\"{o}}, E and Kivi, R and Shiomi, K and Kawakami, S and {De Mazi{\`{e}}re}, M and Arnold, S G and Feist, D G and Barrow, E A and Barney, J and Dubey, M and Schneider, M and Iraci, L T and Podolske, J R and Hillyard, P W and Machida, T and Sawa, Y and Tsuboi, K and Matsueda, H and Sweeney, C and Tans, P P and Andrews, A E and Biraud, S C and Fukuyama, Y and Pittman, J V and Kort, E A and Tanaka, T},
doi = {10.5194/amt-9-3491-2016},
journal = {Atmospheric Measurement Techniques},
number = {8},
pages = {3491--3512},
title = {{Bias corrections of GOSAT SWIR XCO2 and XCH4 with TCCON data and their evaluation using aircraft measurement data}},
url = {https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/9/3491/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Intemann2015,
author = {Intemann, Kristen},
doi = {10.1007/s13194-014-0105-6},
issn = {1879-4912},
journal = {European Journal for Philosophy of Science},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {217--232},
title = {{Distinguishing between legitimate and illegitimate values in climate modeling}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13194-014-0105-6},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{IPBES2019,
address = {Bonn, Germany},
author = {IPBES},
booktitle = {Global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.3553579},
editor = {D{\'{i}}az, S. and Settele, J. and Brond{\'{i}}zio, E. S. and Ngo, H. T. and Gu{\`{e}}ze, M. and Agard, J. and Arneth, A. and Balvanera, P. and Brauman, K. A. and Butchart, S. H. M. and Chan, K. M. A. and Garibaldi, L. A. and Ichii, K. and Liu, J. and Subramanian, S. M. and Midgley, G. F. and Miloslavich, P. and Moln{\'{a}}r, Z. and Obura, D. and Pfaff, A. and Polasky, S. and Purvis, A. and Razzaque, J. and Reyers, B. and Chowdhury, R. Roy and Shin, Y. J. and Visseren-Hamakers, I. J. and Willis, K. J. and Zayas, C. N.},
pages = {56},
publisher = {Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Secretariat},
title = {{Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services}},
url = {https://www.ipbes.net/global-assessment},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{IPCC2019,
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc},
editor = {P{\"{o}}rtner, Hans-Otto and Roberts, DC and Masson-Delmotte, V and Zhai, P and Tignor, M and Poloczanska, E and Mintenbeck, K and Alegr{\'{i}}a, A and Nicolai, M and Okem, A},
pages = {755},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{Houghton1992,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/climate-change-1992-the-supplementary-report-to-the-ipcc-scientific-assessment/},
editor = {Houghton, J.T. and Callander, B.A. and Varney, S.K.},
isbn = {0521438292},
keywords = {IP,climate change,global warming,greenhouse gas},
pages = {200},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/climate-change-1992-the-supplementary-report-to-the-ipcc-scientific-assessment/},
year = {1992}
}
@techreport{20172017,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/11/AR6-Chair-Vision-Paper.pdf},
pages = {44},
publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Secretariat},
series = {AR6-SCOP/Doc.2},
title = {{AR6 Scoping Meeting – Chair's Vision Paper}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/11/AR6-Chair-Vision-Paper.pdf},
year = {2017}
}
@techreport{IPCC2018,
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15},
editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P.R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and P{\'{e}}an, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M.I. and Lonnoy, E. and Maycock, T. and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.},
pages = {616},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{IPCC2014a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415379.003},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Dokken, D.J. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058071},
pages = {1--32},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Summary for Policymakers}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@incollection{IPCC2013b,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {SPM},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {3--29},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Summary for Policymakers}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@techreport{IPCC2005,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-uncertaintyguidancenote-1.pdf},
pages = {4},
publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Secretariat},
title = {{Guidance notes for lead authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on addressing uncertainties}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-uncertaintyguidancenote-1.pdf},
year = {2005}
}
@techreport{IPCC1990,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar1/wg1},
editor = {Houghton, J. T. and Jenkins, G. J. and Ephraums, J. J.},
isbn = {052140360X},
pages = {365},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar1/wg1},
year = {1990}
}
@techreport{IPCC1997,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/the-regional-impacts-of-climate-change-an-assessment-of-vulnerability},
editor = {Watson, R.T. and Zinyowera, M.C. and Moss, R.H.},
isbn = {0521632560},
pages = {517},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. A Special Report of IPCC Working Group II}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/the-regional-impacts-of-climate-change-an-assessment-of-vulnerability},
year = {1998}
}
@techreport{IPCC2007,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1},
editor = {Solomon, S and Qin, D and Manning, M and Chen, Z and Marquis, M and Averyt, K B and Tignor, M and Miller, H L},
isbn = {9780521880091},
pages = {996},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1},
year = {2007}
}
@techreport{Houghton2001,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/wg1},
editor = {Houghton, J. T. and Ding, Y. and Griggs, D. J. and Noguer, M. and van der Linden, P. J. and Dai, X. and Maskell, K. and Johnson, C. A.},
isbn = {0521807670},
pages = {881},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/wg1},
year = {2001}
}
@techreport{HoughtonJohnT.L.G.MeiraFilhoJamesP.BruceHoesungLeeBruceA.Callander1995,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/climate-change-1994-radiative-forcing-of-climate-change-and-an-evaluation-of-the-ipcc-is92-emission-scenarios-2},
editor = {Houghton, J.T. and Filho, L.G. Meira and Bruce, J. and Lee, Hoesung and Callander, B.A. and Haites, E. and Harris, N. and Maskell., K.},
isbn = {0521550556},
pages = {339},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/climate-change-1994-radiative-forcing-of-climate-change-and-an-evaluation-of-the-ipcc-is92-emission-scenarios-2},
year = {1995}
}
@techreport{IPCC1996,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar2/wg1},
editor = {Houghton, J.T. and Filho, L.G. Meira and Callander, B.A. and Harris, N. and Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K.},
isbn = {0521564336},
pages = {584},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar2/wg1},
year = {1996}
}
@techreport{IPCC2019c,
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl},
editor = {Shukla, P.R. and Skea, J. and Buendia, E. Calvo and Masson-Delmotte, V. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. C. and Zhai, P. and Slade, R. and Connors, S. and van Diemen, R. and Ferrat, M. and Haughey, E. and Luz, S. and Neogi, S. and Pathak, M. and Petzold, J. and Pereira, J. Portugal and Vyas, P. and Huntley, E. and Kissick, K. and Belkacemi, M. and Malley, J.},
pages = {896},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{IPCC2000a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/emissions-scenarios},
editor = {Naki{\'{c}}enovi{\'{c}}, Neboj{\v{s}}a and Swart, Robert},
isbn = {0521800811},
pages = {570},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/emissions-scenarios},
year = {2000}
}
@incollection{IPCC2019h,
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers},
editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {755},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Summary for Policymakers}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{IPCC2007a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1},
editor = {Solomon, S. and Qin, D. and Manning, M. and Chen, Z. and Marquis, M. and Averyt, K.B. and M.Tignor and Miller, H.L.},
isbn = {978-0-521-88009-1},
pages = {1--18},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Summary for Policymakers}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1},
year = {2007}
}
@incollection{IPCC2019a,
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers},
editor = {Shukla, P.R. and Skea, J. and Buendia, E. Calvo and Masson-Delmotte, V. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.- O. and Roberts, D. C. and Zhai, P. and Slade, R. and Connors, S. and van Diemen, R. and Ferrat, M. and Haughey, E. and Luz, S. and Neogi, S. and Pathak, M. and Petzold, J. and Pereira, J. Portugal and Vyas, P. and Huntley, E. and Kissick, K. and Belkacemi, M. and Malley, J.},
pages = {3--36},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Summary for Policymakers}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{IPCC1995,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar2/wg1/},
editor = {Houghton, J.T. and Filho, L.G. Meira and Callander, B.A. and Harris, N. and Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K.},
pages = {1--7},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Summary for Policymakers}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar2/wg1/},
year = {1995}
}
@techreport{IPCC2013h,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004},
editor = {Stocker, T.F. and Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Allen, S.K. and Boschung, J. and Nauels, A. and Xia, Y. and Bex, V. and Midgley, P.M.},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {1535},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{IPCC1990a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Report Prepared for IPCC by Working Group 1},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar1/wg1},
editor = {Houghton, J.T. and Jenkins, G.J. and Ephraums, J.J.},
pages = {XI--XXXIV},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Policymakers Summary}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar1/wg1},
year = {1990}
}
@incollection{IPCC2001,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/wg1},
editor = {Houghton, J.T. and Ding, Y. and Griggs, D.J. and Noguer, M. and van der Linden, P.J. and Dai, X. and Maskell, K. and Johnson, C.A.},
pages = {1--20},
title = {{Summary for Policymakers}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/wg1},
year = {2001}
}
@techreport{IPCC2012,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781139177245},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V. and Stocker, T.F. and Qin, D. and Dokken, D.J. and Ebi, K.L. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Mach, K.J. and Plattner, G.-K. and Allen, S.K. and Tignor, M. and Midgley, P.M.},
isbn = {9781107025066},
pages = {582},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/managing-the-risks-of-extreme-events-and-disasters-to-advance-climate-change-adaptation},
year = {2012}
}
@techreport{IPCC2014,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415379},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Dokken, D.J. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058071},
pages = {1132},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Iturbide2020,
abstract = {Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages).We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).},
author = {Iturbide, Maialen and Guti{\'{e}}rrez, Jos{\'{e}} M. and Alves, Lincoln M. and Bedia, Joaqu{\'{i}}n and Cerezo-Mota, Ruth and Cimadevilla, Ezequiel and Cofi{\~{n}}o, Antonio S. and Luca, Alejandro Di and Faria, Sergio Henrique and Gorodetskaya, Irina V. and Hauser, Mathias and Herrera, Sixto and Hennessy, Kevin and Hewitt, Helene T. and Jones, Richard G. and Krakovska, Svitlana and Manzanas, Rodrigo and Mart{\'{i}}nez-Castro, Daniel and Narisma, Gemma T. and Nurhati, Intan S. and Pinto, Izidine and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and van den Hurk, Bart and Vera, Carolina S.},
doi = {10.5194/essd-12-2959-2020},
issn = {18663516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {nov},
number = {4},
pages = {2959--2970},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets}},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Jezequel2018,
abstract = {Since 2015, the community of extreme event attribution (EEA) has witnessed a scientific controversy between what is called a " risk-based approach " — estimating how the probability of event occurrence correlates with climate change — and a " storyline approach " — evaluating the influence of climate change on thermodynamic processes leading to the event. We confront those two approaches to the methodologies used in a collection of 105 case studies from 5 BAMS special issues on extreme events. We find that the controversy fails to describe the 1 various ways to perform EEA. In order to go beyond the controversy, we define EEA, based on corpus of interviews conducted with researchers working in the field. EEA is the ensemble of scientific ways to interpret the question " is this event caused by climate change? " and answer it. In order to break down the subtleties of EEA, we decompose this initial question into three main problems a researcher has to deal with when framing an EEA case study. First, one needs to define the event of interest. Then, one has to determine the chain of causality behind the attribution, and the subsequent level of conditioning to parameters of interest. Finally, one has to determine how to represent climate change. We conjecture that the apparent dispute on EEA is connected to its perceived potential use by stakeholders outside of academia, and not to actual scientific practice.},
author = {J{\'{e}}z{\'{e}}quel, Agla{\'{e}} and D{\'{e}}poues, Vivian and Guillemot, H{\'{e}}l{\`{e}}ne and Trolliet, M{\'{e}}lodie and Vanderlinden, Jean Paul and Yiou, Pascal},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2252-9},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {367--383},
title = {{Behind the veil of extreme event attribution}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2252-9},
volume = {149},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Jack,
author = {Jack, Christopher David and Jones, Richard and Burgin, Laura and Daron, Joseph},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2020.100239},
issn = {22120963},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
pages = {100239},
title = {{Climate risk narratives: An iterative reflective process for co-producing and integrating climate knowledge}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212096320300292},
volume = {29},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Jackson2019a,
abstract = {Abstract The observational network around the North Atlantic has improved significantly over the last few decades with subsurface profiling floats and satellite observations and the recent efforts to monitor the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). These have shown decadal time scale changes across the North Atlantic including in heat content, heat transport, and the circulation. However, there are still significant gaps in the observational coverage. Ocean reanalyses integrate the observations with a dynamically consistent ocean model and can be used to understand the observed changes. However, the ability of the reanalyses to represent the dynamics must also be assessed. We use an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses to examine the time mean state and interannual-decadal variability of the North Atlantic ocean since 1993. We assess how well the reanalyses are able to capture processes and whether any understanding can be gained. In particular, we examine aspects of the circulation including convection, AMOC and gyre strengths, and transports. We find that reanalyses show some consistency, in particular showing a weakening of the subpolar gyre and AMOC at 50°N from the mid-1990s until at least 2009 (related to decadal variability in previous studies), a strengthening and then weakening of the AMOC at 26.5°N since 2000, and impacts of circulation changes on transports. These results agree with model studies and the AMOC observations at 26.5°N since 2005. We also see less spread across the ensemble in AMOC strength and mixed layer depth, suggesting improvements as the observational coverage has improved.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015210},
author = {Jackson, L C and Dubois, C and Forget, G and Haines, K and Harrison, M and Iovino, D and K{\"{o}}hl, A and Mignac, D and Masina, S and Peterson, K A and Piecuch, C G and Roberts, C D and Robson, J and Storto, A and Toyoda, T and Valdivieso, M and Wilson, C and Wang, Y and Zuo, H},
doi = {10.1029/2019JC015210},
issn = {2169-9275},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {9141--9170},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The Mean State and Variability of the North Atlantic Circulation: A Perspective From Ocean Reanalyses}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015210},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{James2019,
abstract = {Attribution has become a recurring issue in discussions about Loss and Damage (L{\&}D). In this highly-politicised context, attribution is often associated with responsibility and blame; and linked to debates about liability and compensation. The aim of attribution science, however, is not to establish responsibility, but to further scientific understanding of causal links between elements of the Earth System and society. This research into causality could inform the management of climate-related risks through improved understanding of drivers of relevant hazards, or, more widely, vulnerability and exposure; with potential benefits regardless of political positions on L{\&}D. Experience shows that it is nevertheless difficult to have open discussions about the science in the policy sphere. This is not only a missed opportunity, but also problematic in that it could inhibit understanding of scientific results and uncertainties, potentially leading to policy planning which does not have sufficient scientific evidence to support it. In this chapter, we first explore this dilemma for science-policy dialogue, summarising several years of research into stakeholder perspectives of attribution in the context of L{\&}D. We then aim to provide clarity about the scientific research available, through an overview of research which might contribute evidence about the causal connections between anthropogenic climate change and losses and damages, including climate science, but also other fields which examine other drivers of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Finally, we explore potential applications of attribution research, suggesting that an integrated and nuanced approach has potential to inform planning to avert, minimise and address losses and damages. The key messages are In the political context of climate negotiations, questions about whether losses and damages can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change are often linked to issues of responsibility, blame, and liability.Attribution science does not aim to establish responsibility or blame, but rather to investigate drivers of change.Attribution science is advancing rapidly, and has potential to increase understanding of how climate variability and change is influencing slow onset and extreme weather events, and how this interacts with other drivers of risk, including socio-economic drivers, to influence losses and damages.Over time, some uncertainties in the science will be reduced, as the anthropogenic clima{\ldots}},
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {James, Rachel A and Jones, Richard G and Boyd, Emily and Young, Hannah R and Otto, Friederike E L and Huggel, Christian and Fuglestvedt, Jan S},
booktitle = {Loss and Damage from Climate Change: Concepts, Methods and Policy Options},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_5},
editor = {Mechler, Reinhard and Bouwer, Laurens M and Schinko, Thomas and Surminski, Swenja and Linnerooth-Bayer, JoAnne},
isbn = {978-3-319-72026-5},
pages = {113--154},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Attribution: How Is It Relevant for Loss and Damage Policy and Practice?}},
year = {2019}
}
@article{James2017,
author = {James, Rachel A. and Washington, Richard and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Rogelj, Joeri and Conway, Declan},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.457},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {e457},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.457},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{James2015,
author = {James, Rachel A. and Washington, Richard and Jones, Richard},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD022513},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1221--1238},
title = {{Process-based assessment of an ensemble of climate projections for West Africa}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD022513},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0010.1,
abstract = {Weather observations from commercial aircraft constitute an essential component of the global observing system and have been shown to be the most valuable observation source for short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems over North America. However, the distribution of aircraft observations is highly irregular in space and time. In this study, we summarize the recent state of aircraft observation coverage over the globe and provide an updated quantification of its impact upon short-range NWP forecast skill. Aircraft observation coverage is most dense over the contiguous United States and Europe, with secondary maxima in East Asia and Australia/New Zealand. As of late November 2019, 665 airports around the world had at least one daily ascent or descent profile observation; 400 of these come from North American or European airports. Flight reductions related to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a 75$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} reduction in aircraft observations globally as of late April 2020. A set of data denial experiments with the latest version of the Rapid Refresh NWP system for recent winter and summer periods quantifies the statistically significant positive forecast impacts of assimilating aircraft observations. A special additional experiment excluding approximately 80$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} of aircraft observations reveals a reduction in forecast skill for both summer and winter amounting to 30$\backslash$$\backslash${\%}–60$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} of the degradation seen when all aircraft observations are excluded. These results represent an approximate quantification of the NWP impact of COVID-19-related commercial flight reductions, demonstrating that regional NWP guidance is degraded as a result of the decreased number of aircraft observations.},
author = {James, Eric P and Benjamin, Stanley G and Jamison, Brian D},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0010.1},
issn = {1558-8424},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
number = {11},
pages = {1809--1825},
title = {{Commercial-Aircraft-Based Observations for NWP: Global Coverage, Data Impacts, and COVID-19}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0010.1},
volume = {59},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Janzwood2020,
author = {Janzwood, Scott},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {may},
pages = {1655--1675},
title = {{Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x},
volume = {162},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Jasanoff2010,
author = {Jasanoff, Sheila},
doi = {10.1177/0263276409361497},
issn = {0263-2764},
journal = {Theory, Culture {\&} Society},
month = {mar},
number = {2-3},
pages = {233--253},
title = {{A New Climate for Society}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0263276409361497},
volume = {27},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Jaspal2014,
author = {Jaspal, Rusi and Nerlich, Brigitte},
doi = {10.1177/0963662512440219},
issn = {0963-6625},
journal = {Public Understanding of Science},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {122--141},
title = {{When climate science became climate politics: British media representations of climate change in 1988}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0963662512440219},
volume = {23},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Jaspal2014a,
author = {Jaspal, Rusi and Nerlich, Brigitte and Cinnirella, Marco},
doi = {10.1080/17524032.2013.846270},
issn = {1752-4032},
journal = {Environmental Communication},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {110--130},
title = {{Human Responses to Climate Change: Social Representation, Identity and Socio-psychological Action}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2013.846270},
volume = {8},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Jayne2017,
author = {Jayne, S.R. and Roemmich, D. and Zilberman, N. and Riser, S.C. and Johnson, K.S. and Johnson, G.C and Piotrowicz, S.R.},
doi = {10.5670/oceanog.2017.213},
journal = {Oceanography},
number = {2},
pages = {18--28},
title = {{The Argo Program: Present and Future}},
url = {10.5670/oceanog.2017.213},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Jermey2016,
abstract = {Precipitation is a critical aspect of climate. In Europe, extreme precipitation events are costly and represent a threat to life. Evidence suggests the frequency and intensity of these events is increasing in Europe and therefore long-period datasets that can represent such events accurately are required. Precipitation is challenging to represent in gridded models and therefore is not well trusted in relatively low-resolution global reanalyses. For the first time, the European Reanalyses and Observations For Monitoring (EURO4M) project has produced high-resolution atmospheric regional reanalyses of Europe that improve representation of precipitation. These are based on operational forecast systems at the Met Office and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (HIRLAM). The improvement of quality of precipitation in the regional reanalysis datasets over their parent global reanalysis is demonstrated here, together with a discussion on the difficulties of validation of gridded precipitation. It is shown that regional reanalyses show particular improvement in representing high-threshold events. It is also shown that higher resolution, time-varying data assimilation and direct assimilation of precipitation all contribute to improving representation of precipitation. Resolution is of particular importance when representing extreme events.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/qj.2733},
author = {Jermey, P M and Renshaw, R J},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2733},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {extreme events,precipitation,reanalysis,validation,verification},
month = {apr},
number = {696},
pages = {1300--1310},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Precipitation representation over a two-year period in regional reanalysis}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2733},
volume = {142},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Jiang2017,
abstract = {The new scenario process for climate change research includes the creation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describing alternative societal development trends over the coming decades. Urbanization is a key aspect of development that is relevant to studies of mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. Incorporating urbanization into the SSPs requires a consistent set of global urbanization projections that cover long time horizons and span a full range of uncertainty. Existing urbanization projections do not meet these needs, in particular providing only a single scenario over the next few decades, a period during which urbanization is likely to be highly dynamic in many countries. We present here a new, long-term, global set of urbanization projections at country level that cover a plausible range of uncertainty. We create SSP-specific projections by choosing urbanization outcomes consistent with each SSP narrative. Results show that the world continues to urbanize in each of the SSPs but outcomes differ widely across them, with urbanization reaching 60{\%}, 79{\%}, and 92{\%} by the end of century in SSP3, SSP2, and SSP1/SSP4/SSP5, respectively. The degree of convergence in urbanization across countries also differs substantially, with largely convergent outcomes by the end of the century in SSP1 and SSP5 and persistent diversity in SSP3. This set of global, country-specific projections produces urbanization pathways that are typical of regions in different stages of urbanization and development levels, and can be extended to further elaborate assumptions about the styles of urban growth and spatial distributions of urban people and land cover occurring in each SSP.},
author = {Jiang, Leiwen and O'Neill, Brian C.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.008},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {jan},
pages = {193--199},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378015000394 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378015000394},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Jiang2018,
author = {Jiang, Xianan and Adames, {\'{A}}ngel F. and Zhao, Ming and Waliser, Duane and Maloney, Eric},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0671.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {4215--4224},
title = {{A Unified Moisture Mode Framework for Seasonality of the Madden–Julian Oscillation}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0671.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Jimenez-de-la-Cuesta2019,
abstract = {Future global warming is determined by both greenhouse gas emission pathways and Earth's transient and equilibrium climate response to doubled atmospheric CO2. Energy-balance inference from the instrumental record typically yields central estimates for the transient response of around 1.3 K and the equilibrium response of 1.5–2.0 K, which is at the lower end of those from contemporary climate models. Uncertainty arises primarily from poorly known aerosol-induced cooling since the early industrialization era and a temporary cooling induced by evolving sea surface temperature patterns. Here we present an emergent constraint on post-1970s warming, taking advantage of the weakly varying aerosol cooling during this period. We derive a relationship between the transient response and the post-1970s warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We thereby constrain, with the observations, the transient response to 1.67 K (1.17–2.16 K, 5–95th percentiles). This is a 20{\%} increase relative to energy-balance inference stemming from previously neglected upper-ocean energy storage. For the equilibrium climate sensitivity we obtain a best estimate of 2.83 K (1.72–4.12 K) contingent on the temporary pattern effects exhibited by climate models. If the real world's surface temperature pattern effects are substantially stronger, then the upper-bound equilibrium sensitivity may be higher than found here.},
author = {Jim{\'{e}}nez-de-la-Cuesta, Diego and Mauritsen, Thorsten},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {902--905},
title = {{Emergent constraints on Earth's transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 from post-1970s global warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0463-y},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Jin2017a,
author = {Jin, Daeho and Oreopoulos, Lazaros and Lee, Dongmin},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3064-0},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {89--112},
title = {{Regime-based evaluation of cloudiness in CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3064-0},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Jones2000,
author = {Jones, Roger N.},
doi = {10.1023/A:1005551626280},
journal = {Climatic Change},
pages = {403--419},
title = {{Managing Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections – Issues for Impact Assessment}},
volume = {45},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Jones2013,
author = {Jones, Gareth S. and Stott, Peter A. and Christidis, Nikolaos},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50239},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {4001--4024},
title = {{Attribution of observed historical near-surface temperature variations to anthropogenic and natural causes using CMIP5 simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jgrd.50239},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Jones2016a,
abstract = {Abstract. Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks are potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 {\%} per year increases in CO2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This paper documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.},
author = {Jones, Chris D. and Arora, Vivek and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Bopp, Laurent and Brovkin, Victor and Dunne, John and Graven, Heather and Hoffman, Forrest and Ilyina, Tatiana and John, Jasmin G. and Jung, Martin and Kawamiya, Michio and Koven, Charlie and Pongratz, Julia and Raddatz, Thomas and Randerson, James T. and Zaehle, S{\"{o}}nke},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {2853--2880},
title = {{C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/2853/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Jones2009,
author = {Jones, P.D. and Briffa, K.R. and Osborn, T.J. and Lough, J.M. and van Ommen, T.D. and Vinther, B.M. and Luterbacher, J. and Wahl, E.R. and Zwiers, F.W. and Mann, M.E. and Schmidt, G.A. and Ammann, C.M. and Buckley, B.M. and Cobb, K.M. and Esper, J. and Goosse, H. and Graham, N. and Jansen, E. and Kiefer, T. and Kull, C. and K{\"{u}}ttel, M. and Mosley-Thompson, E. and Overpeck, J.T. and Riedwyl, N. and Schulz, M. and Tudhope, A.W. and Villalba, R. and Wanner, H. and Wolff, E. and Xoplaki, E.},
doi = {10.1177/0959683608098952},
issn = {0959-6836},
journal = {The Holocene},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {3--49},
title = {{High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0959683608098952},
volume = {19},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Jones1999,
author = {Jones, P. D. and New, M. and Parker, D. E. and Martin, S. and Rigor, I. G.},
doi = {10.1029/1999RG900002},
issn = {87551209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {173--199},
title = {{Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/1999RG900002},
volume = {37},
year = {1999}
}
@article{Jones_2020,
abstract = {To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement requires deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and depth of reductions. Earth system models provide a means to quantify the link from emissions to global climate change. Using the concept of TCRE—the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions—we can estimate the remaining carbon budget to achieve 1.5 or 2 °C. But the uncertainty is large, and this hinders the usefulness of the concept. Uncertainty in carbon budgets associated with a given global temperature rise is determined by the physical Earth system, and therefore Earth system modelling has a clear and high priority remit to address and reduce this uncertainty. Here we explore multi-model carbon cycle simulations across three generations of Earth system models to quantitatively assess the sources of uncertainty which propagate through to TCRE. Our analysis brings new insights which will allow us to determine how we can better direct our research priorities in order to reduce this uncertainty. We emphasise that uses of carbon budget estimates must bear in mind the uncertainty stemming from the biogeophysical Earth system, and we recommend specific areas where the carbon cycle research community needs to re-focus activity in order to try to reduce this uncertainty. We conclude that we should revise focus from the climate feedback on the carbon cycle to place more emphasis on CO2 as the main driver of carbon sinks and their long-term behaviour. Our proposed framework will enable multiple constraints on components of the carbon cycle to propagate to constraints on remaining carbon budgets.},
author = {Jones, Chris D and Friedlingstein, Pierre},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab858a},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {074019},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab858a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab858a},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Joos2013,
abstract = {The responses of carbon dioxide (CO 2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO 2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models , and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO 2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO 2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9 {\%} is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12 {\%} and the land the remainder (16 ± 14 {\%}). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 • C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 2794 F. Joos et al.: A multi-model analysis response in CO 2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency , is 92.5 × 10 −15 yr W m −2 per kg-CO 2. This value very likely (5 to 95 {\%} confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10 −15 yr W m −2 per kg-CO 2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO 2 published in the IPCC First, Second , and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15 {\%} during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO 2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties , the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO 2 and GWP is the time horizon.},
author = {Joos, F and Roth, R and Fuglestvedt, J S and Peters, G P and Enting, I G and {Von Bloh}, W and Brovkin, V and Burke, E J and Eby, M and Edwards, N R and Friedrich, T and {Fr{\"{o}}licher 11}, T L and Halloran, P R and Holden, P B and Jones, C and Kleinen, T and Mackenzie, F T and Matsumoto, K and Meinshausen, M and Plattner, G.-K and Reisinger, A and Segschneider, J and Shaffer, G and Steinacher, M and Strassmann, K and Tanaka, K and Timmermann, A and Weaver, A J},
doi = {10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
pages = {2793--2825},
title = {{Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis}},
url = {www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/2793/2013/},
volume = {13},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Joos2004,
author = {Joos, Fortunat and Gerber, Stefan and Prentice, I. C. and Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. and Valdes, Paul J.},
doi = {10.1029/2003GB002156},
issn = {08866236},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {GB2002},
title = {{Transient simulations of Holocene atmospheric carbon dioxide and terrestrial carbon since the Last Glacial Maximum}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2003GB002156},
volume = {18},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Joughin2014,
author = {Joughin, I. and Smith, B. E. and Medley, B.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1249055},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {may},
number = {6185},
pages = {735--738},
title = {{Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Under Way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1249055},
volume = {344},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Jouzel2013,
abstract = {For about 50 yr, ice cores have provided a wealth of information about past climatic and environmental changes. Ice cores from Greenland, Antarctica and other glacier-covered regions now encompass a variety of time scales. However, the longer time scales (e. g. at least back to the Last Glacial period) are covered by deep ice cores, the number of which is still very limited: seven from Greenland, with only one providing an undisturbed record of a part of the last interglacial period, and a dozen from Antarctica, with the longest record covering the last 800 000 yr. This article aims to summarize this successful adventure initiated by a few pioneers and their teams and to review key scientific results by focusing on climate (in particular water isotopes) and climate-related (e. g. greenhouse gases) reconstructions. Future research is well taken into account by the four projects defined by IPICS. However, it remains a challenge to get an intact record of the Last Interglacial in Greenland and to extend the Antarctic record through the mid-Pleistocene transition, if possible back to 1.5 Ma.},
author = {Jouzel, J.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-9-2525-2013},
isbn = {1814-9359},
issn = {18149324},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {6},
pages = {2525--2547},
title = {{A brief history of ice core science over the last 50 yr}},
volume = {9},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Jouzel2007a,
author = {Jouzel, J. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Cattani, O. and Dreyfus, G. and Falourd, S. and Hoffmann, G. and Minster, B. and Nouet, J. and Barnola, J. M. and Chappellaz, J. and Fischer, H. and Gallet, J. C. and Johnsen, S. and Leuenberger, M. and Loulergue, L. and Luethi, D. and Oerter, H. and Parrenin, F. and Raisbeck, G. and Raynaud, D. and Schilt, A. and Schwander, J. and Selmo, E. and Souchez, R. and Spahni, R. and Stauffer, B. and Steffensen, J. P. and Stenni, B. and Stocker, T. F. and Tison, J. L. and Werner, M. and Wolff, E. W.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1141038},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {5839},
pages = {793--796},
title = {{Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1141038},
volume = {317},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Juanchich2020,
abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) currently communicates uncertainty using a lexicon that features four negative verbal probabilities to convey extremely low to medium probabilities (e.g. unlikely). We compare a positive probability lexicon with the IPCC lexicon in a series of psychology experiments. We find that although the positive and negative lexicons convey a similar level of probability, the positive lexicon directs more attention towards the outcome occurrence and encourages more cautious decisions: in our role-playing experiment, it reduced the number of type 2 errors, i.e. failures to make needed precautionary interventions. Whilst participants considered the negative lexicon more useful in making a decision, they trusted the positive lexicon more and blamed information providers less after making an incorrect decision. Our results suggest that the negative verbal framing of probabilities used by the IPCC is not neutral and has implications for how climate information is interpreted by decision-makers.},
author = {Juanchich, Marie and Shepherd, Theodore G. and Sirota, Miroslav},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02737-y},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {oct},
number = {3},
pages = {1677--1698},
title = {{Negations in uncertainty lexicon affect attention, decision-making and trust}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02737-y https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02737-y},
volume = {162},
year = {2020}
}
@article{gmd-10-4005-2017,
author = {Jungclaus, J H and Bard, E and Baroni, M and Braconnot, P and Cao, J and Chini, L P and Egorova, T and Evans, M and Gonz{\'{a}}lez-Rouco, J F and Goosse, H and Hurtt, G C and Joos, F and Kaplan, J O and Khodri, M and {Klein Goldewijk}, K and Krivova, N and LeGrande, A N and Lorenz, S J and Luterbacher, J and Man, W and Maycock, A C and Meinshausen, M and Moberg, A and Muscheler, R and Nehrbass-Ahles, C and Otto-Bliesner, B I and Phipps, S J and Pongratz, J and Rozanov, E and Schmidt, G A and Schmidt, H and Schmutz, W and Schurer, A and Shapiro, A I and Sigl, M and Smerdon, J E and Solanki, S K and Timmreck, C and Toohey, M and Usoskin, I G and Wagner, S and Wu, C.-J. and Yeo, K L and Zanchettin, D and Zhang, Q and Zorita, E},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {11},
pages = {4005--4033},
title = {{The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 {\textless}i{\textgreater}past1000{\textless}/i{\textgreater} simulations}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/4005/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6354,
abstract = {Abstract Near-surface air temperature over the oceans is a relatively unused parameter in understanding the current state of climate, but is useful as an independent temperature metric over the oceans and serves as a geographical and physical complement to near-surface air temperature over land. Although one complete version of this dataset exists (HadNMAT2), it has been strongly recommended that various groups generate climate records independently, which is one motivation here. This University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) study began with the construction of monthly night-time marine air temperature (UAHNMATv1) values from the early-twentieth century through to the present era using air temperatures on ships. Data from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) Release 3.0 (R3.0) were used to compile a complete time series of gridded UAHNMATv1. The observations required detailed homogenization procedures since there are many biases to account for such as increasing ship height and changing observing practices. The UAHNMATv1 dataset, once homogenized, is gridded to 5.0° monthly anomalies from 1900 to 2018. This study will present results which quantify the variability and trends and compare to current trends of other related datasets that include HadNMAT2 and sea-surface temperatures (HadISST {\&} ERSSTv4). This new dataset has broad overall agreement both globally and regionally with HadNMAT2, HadISST, and ERSSTv4 datasets.},
author = {Junod, Robert A and Christy, John R},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6354},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {ICOADS,NMAT,UAHNMATv1},
number = {5},
pages = {2609--2623},
title = {{A new compilation of globally gridded night-time marine air temperatures: The UAHNMATv1 dataset}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6354},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Koppen1936,
address = {Berlin, Germany},
author = {K{\"{o}}ppen, Wladimir},
booktitle = {Handbuch der Klimatologie (Band I)},
pages = {43},
publisher = {Gebrueder Borntraeger},
title = {{Das geographische System der Klimate}},
year = {1936}
}
@article{Kadow2020c,
abstract = {Historical temperature measurements are the basis of global climate datasets like HadCRUT4. This dataset contains many missing values, particularly for periods before the mid-twentieth century, although recent years are also incomplete. Here we demonstrate that artificial intelligence can skilfully fill these observational gaps when combined with numerical climate model data. We show that recently developed image inpainting techniques perform accurate monthly reconstructions via transfer learning using either 20CR (Twentieth-Century Reanalysis) or the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) experiments. The resulting global annual mean temperature time series exhibit high Pearson correlation coefficients (≥0.9941) and low root mean squared errors (≤0.0547 °C) as compared with the original data. These techniques also provide advantages relative to state-of-the-art kriging interpolation and principal component analysis-based infilling. When applied to HadCRUT4, our method restores a missing spatial pattern of the documented El Ni{\~{n}}o from July 1877. With respect to the global mean temperature time series, a HadCRUT4 reconstruction by our method points to a cooler nineteenth century, a less apparent hiatus in the twenty-first century, an even warmer 2016 being the warmest year on record and a stronger global trend between 1850 and 2018 relative to previous estimates. We propose image inpainting as an approach to reconstruct missing climate information and thereby reduce uncertainties and biases in climate records.},
author = {Kadow, Christopher and Hall, David Matthew and Ulbrich, Uwe},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-020-0582-5},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {6},
pages = {408--413},
title = {{Artificial intelligence reconstructs missing climate information}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0582-5},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kageyama2018,
abstract = {Abstract. This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) – Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016). The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.},
author = {Kageyama, Masa and Braconnot, Pascale and Harrison, Sandy P. and Haywood, Alan M. and Jungclaus, Johann H. and Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. and Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Albani, Samuel and Bartlein, Patrick J. and Brierley, Chris and Crucifix, Michel and Dolan, Aisling and Fernandez-Donado, Laura and Fischer, Hubertus and Hopcroft, Peter O. and Ivanovic, Ruza F. and Lambert, Fabrice and Lunt, Daniel J. and Mahowald, Natalie M. and Peltier, W. Richard and Phipps, Steven J. and Roche, Didier M. and Schmidt, Gavin A. and Tarasov, Lev and Valdes, Paul J. and Zhang, Qiong and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1033--1057},
title = {{The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/1033/2018/},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kaiser-Weiss2019,
abstract = {Regional reanalyses constitute valuable new data sources for climatological applications by providing consistent meteorological parameter fields commonly requested, e.g., wind speed, solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Within the European project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional ReAnalyses (UERRA) three different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been employed to generate different European regional reanalyses and subsequent surface reanalysis products. The uncertainties of the individual reanalysis products and of the combined UERRA multi-model ensemble are investigated by comparing against observations. Here, we provide guidance on the meteorological parameters and spatial-temporal scales where regional reanalyses add value to global reanalyses. The reanalysis fields are compared to station measurements and derived gridded fields, as well as satellite data. In general, reanalyses are especially valuable in data sparse areas, where the NWP models are superior in transporting information compared to the traditional gridding procedures based on station observations. For wind speed at heights relevant for wind energy, where little conventional observations exist, regional reanalyses can provide higher resolution horizontally, vertically, and in time, adding value to global reanalyses. Solar radiation fields capture the variability in general, however, they are prone to model-dependent biases. Temperature fields were generally found to be in good agreement with station observations, with biases for the (moderately) extreme values causing potential pitfalls for threshold applications such as climate indices. Comparisons of the precipitation fields in different areas of Europe demonstrate that various reanalyses excel in different regions. The multi-model ensemble of regional reanalyses was found to provide better uncertainty estimates than an ensemble realisation from one reanalysis system alone. The freely available regional reanalyses provide a new, high resolution data source, which might be attractive for many applications, especially when conventional data are sparse or restricted by data policies.},
author = {Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea K and Borsche, Michael and Niermann, Deborah and Kaspar, Frank and Lussana, Cristian and Isotta, Francesco A and van den Besselaar, Else and van der Schrier, Gerard and Und{\'{e}}n, Per},
doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/ab2ec3},
journal = {Environmental Research Communications},
number = {7},
pages = {071004},
title = {{Added value of regional reanalyses for climatological applications}},
volume = {1},
year = {2019}
}
@article{asr-12-187-2015,
author = {Kaiser-Weiss, A K and Kaspar, F and Heene, V and Borsche, M and Tan, D G H and Poli, P and Obregon, A and Gregow, H},
doi = {10.5194/asr-12-187-2015},
journal = {Advances in Science and Research},
number = {1},
pages = {187--198},
title = {{Comparison of regional and global reanalysis near-surface winds with station observations over Germany}},
url = {https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/12/187/2015/},
volume = {12},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Karoly1994,
author = {Karoly, DJ and Cohen, JA and Meehl, GA and Mitchell, JFB and Oort, AH and Stouffer, RJ and Wetherald, RT},
doi = {10.1007/BF00210339},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {97--105},
title = {{An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF00210339},
volume = {10},
year = {1994}
}
@article{Karspeck2017a,
author = {Karspeck, A. R. and Stammer, D. and K{\"{o}}hl, A. and Danabasoglu, G. and Balmaseda, M. and Smith, D. M. and Fujii, Y. and Zhang, S. and Giese, B. and Tsujino, H. and Rosati, A.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2787-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {957--982},
title = {{Comparison of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between 1960 and 2007 in six ocean reanalysis products}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2787-7},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{asr-12-57-2015,
author = {Kaspar, F and Tinz, B and M{\"{a}}chel, H and Gates, L},
doi = {10.5194/asr-12-57-2015},
journal = {Advances in Science and Research},
number = {1},
pages = {57--61},
title = {{Data rescue of national and international meteorological observations at Deutscher Wetterdienst}},
url = {https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/12/57/2015/},
volume = {12},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Katsaros1991,
author = {Katsaros, Kristina B. and Brown, Robert A.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(1991)072<0967:LOTSMF>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {967--981},
title = {{Legacy of the Seasat Mission for Studies of the Atmosphere and Air-Sea-Ice Interactions}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477{\%}281991{\%}29072{\%}3C0967{\%}3ALOTSMF{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {72},
year = {1991}
}
@article{Kaufman2020b,
abstract = {A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51{\%}), marine sediment (31{\%}), peat (11{\%}), glacier ice (3{\%}), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format.},
author = {Kaufman, Darrell and McKay, Nicholas and Routson, Cody and Erb, Michael and Davis, Basil and Heiri, Oliver and Jaccard, Samuel and Tierney, Jessica and D{\"{a}}twyler, Christoph and Axford, Yarrow and Brussel, Thomas and Cartapanis, Olivier and Chase, Brian and Dawson, Andria and de Vernal, Anne and Engels, Stefan and Jonkers, Lukas and Marsicek, Jeremiah and Moffa-S{\'{a}}nchez, Paola and Morrill, Carrie and Orsi, Anais and Rehfeld, Kira and Saunders, Krystyna and Sommer, Philipp S and Thomas, Elizabeth and Tonello, Marcela and T{\'{o}}th, M{\'{o}}nika and Vachula, Richard and Andreev, Andrei and Bertrand, Sebastien and Biskaborn, Boris and Bringu{\'{e}}, Manuel and Brooks, Stephen and Caniup{\'{a}}n, Magaly and Chevalier, Manuel and Cwynar, Les and Emile-Geay, Julien and Fegyveresi, John and Feurdean, Angelica and Finsinger, Walter and Fortin, Marie-Claude and Foster, Louise and Fox, Mathew and Gajewski, Konrad and Grosjean, Martin and Hausmann, Sonja and Heinrichs, Markus and Holmes, Naomi and Ilyashuk, Boris and Ilyashuk, Elena and Juggins, Steve and Khider, Deborah and Koinig, Karin and Langdon, Peter and Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle and Li, Jianyong and Lotter, Andr{\'{e}} and Luoto, Tomi and Mackay, Anson and Magyari, Eniko and Malevich, Steven and Mark, Bryan and Massaferro, Julieta and Montade, Vincent and Nazarova, Larisa and Novenko, Elena and Pařil, Petr and Pearson, Emma and Peros, Matthew and Pienitz, Reinhard and P{\l}{\'{o}}ciennik, Mateusz and Porinchu, David and Potito, Aaron and Rees, Andrew and Reinemann, Scott and Roberts, Stephen and Rolland, Nicolas and Salonen, Sakari and Self, Angela and Sepp{\"{a}}, Heikki and Shala, Shyhrete and St-Jacques, Jeannine-Marie and Stenni, Barbara and Syrykh, Liudmila and Tarrats, Pol and Taylor, Karen and van den Bos, Valerie and Velle, Gaute and Wahl, Eugene and Walker, Ian and Wilmshurst, Janet and Zhang, Enlou and Zhilich, Snezhana},
doi = {10.1038/s41597-020-0445-3},
issn = {2052-4463},
journal = {Scientific Data},
number = {1},
pages = {115},
title = {{A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0445-3},
volume = {7},
year = {2020}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/JAS-D-18-0206.1,
abstract = {The impact of stratospheric representation is investigated using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MIROC-AGCM) run with different model-lid heights and stratospheric vertical resolutions, but unchanged horizontal resolutions ({\~{}}1.125°) and subgrid parameterizations. One-hundred-year integrations of the model were conducted using configurations with 34, 42, 72, and 168 vertical layers and model-lid heights of {\~{}}27 km (L34), 47 km (L42), 47 km (L72), and 100 km (L168). Analysis of the results focused on the Northern Hemisphere in winter. Compared with the L42 model, the L34 model produces a poorer simulation of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the lower stratosphere, with weaker polar downwelling and accompanying cold-pole and westerly jet biases. The westerly bias extends into the troposphere and even to the surface. The tropospheric westerlies and zone of baroclinic wave activity shift northward; surface pressure has negative (positive) biases in the high (mid-) latitudes, with concomitant precipitation shifts. The L72 and L168 models generate a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) while the L34 and 42 models do not. The L168 model includes the mesosphere, and thus resolves the upper branch of the BDC. The L72 model simulates stronger polar downwelling associated with the BDC than does the L42 model. However, experiments with prescribed nudging of the tropical stratospheric winds suggest differences in the QBO representation cannot account for L72 − L42 differences in the climatological polar night jet structure. The results show that the stratospheric vertical resolution and inclusion of the full middle atmosphere significantly affect tropospheric circulations.},
author = {Kawatani, Yoshio and Hamilton, Kevin and Gray, Lesley J and Osprey, Scott M and Watanabe, Shingo and Yamashita, Yousuke},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-18-0206.1},
issn = {0022-4928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {1203--1226},
title = {{The Effects of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere on the Simulated Boreal Winter Circulation in a Climate Model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0206.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0206.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0206.1},
volume = {76},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kay2015a,
abstract = {AbstractWhile internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920?2100) 30 times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 1000+-yr-long preindustrial control simulations (fully coupled, prognostic atmosphere and land only) allow assessment of internal climate variability in the absence of climate change. Comprehensive outputs, including many daily fields, are available as single-variable time series on the Earth System Grid for anyone to use. Early results demonstrate the substantial influence of internal climate variability on twentieth- to twenty-first-century climate trajectories. Global warming hiatus decades occur, similar to those recently observed. Internal climate variability alone can produce projection spread comparable to that in CMIP5. Scientists and stakeholders can use CESM-LE outputs to help interpret the observational record, to understand projection spread and to plan for a range of possible futures influenced by both internal climate variability and forced climate change.},
author = {Kay, J E and Deser, C and Phillips, A and Mai, A and Hannay, C and Strand, G and Arblaster, J M and Bates, S C and Danabasoglu, G and Edwards, J and Holland, M and Kushner, P and Lamarque, J.-F. and Lawrence, D and Lindsay, K and Middleton, A and Munoz, E and Neale, R and Oleson, K and Polvani, L and Vertenstein, M},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {nov},
number = {8},
pages = {1333--1349},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability}},
volume = {96},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kay2011,
author = {Kay, Jennifer E. and Holland, Marika M. and Jahn, Alexandra},
doi = {10.1029/2011GL048008},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {L15708},
title = {{Inter-annual to multi-decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011GL048008},
volume = {38},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Keeling1960,
author = {Keeling, Charles D.},
doi = {10.3402/tellusa.v12i2.9366},
issn = {0040-2826},
journal = {Tellus},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {200--203},
title = {{The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/tellusa.v12i2.9366},
volume = {12},
year = {1960}
}
@article{Keeling1992,
abstract = {Measurements of changes in atmospheric molecular oxygen using a new interferometric technique show that the O2 content of air varies seasonally in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and is decreasing from year to year. The seasonal variations provide a new basis for estimating global rates of biological organic carbon production in the ocean, and the interannual decrease constrains estimates of the rate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the oceans.},
author = {Keeling, Ralph F and Shertz, Stephen R},
doi = {10.1038/358723a0},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {6389},
pages = {723--727},
title = {{Seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric oxygen and implications for the global carbon cycle}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/358723a0},
volume = {358},
year = {1992}
}
@article{gmd-11-1133-2018,
author = {Keller, D P and Lenton, A and Scott, V and Vaughan, N E and Bauer, N and Ji, D and Jones, C D and Kravitz, B and Muri, H and Zickfeld, K},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {3},
pages = {1133--1160},
title = {{The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/1133/2018/},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Keller2008,
author = {Keller, Michael and Schimel, David S and Hargrove, William W and Hoffman, Forrest M},
doi = {10.1890/1540-9295(2008)6[282:ACSFTN]2.0.CO;2},
journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
number = {5},
pages = {282--284},
title = {{A continental strategy for the National Ecological Observatory Network}},
url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1890/1540-9295},
volume = {6},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Kemp2018a,
abstract = {Several processes contributing to coastal relative sea-level (RSL) change in the North Atlantic Ocean are observed and/or predicted to have distinctive spatial expressions that vary by latitude. To expand the latitudinal range of RSL records spanning the past ∼3000 years and the likelihood of recognizing the characteristic fingerprints of these processes, we reconstructed RSL at two sites (Big River and Placentia) in Newfoundland from salt-marsh sediment. Bayesian transfer functions established the height of former sea level from preserved assemblages of foraminifera and testate amoebae. Age-depth models constrained by radiocarbon dates and chronohorizons estimated the timing of sediment deposition. During the past ∼3000 years, RSL rose by ∼3.0 m at Big River and by ∼1.5 m at Placentia. A locally calibrated geotechnical model showed that post-depositional lowering through sediment compaction was minimal. To isolate and quantify contributions to RSL from global, regional linear, regional non-linear, and local-scale processes, we decomposed the new reconstructions (and those in an expanded, global database) using a spatio-temporal statistical model. The global component confirms that 20th century sea-level rise occurred at the fastest, century-scale rate in over 3000 years (P {\textgreater} 0.999). Distinguishing the contributions from local and regional non-linear processes is made challenging by a sparse network of reconstructions. However, only a small contribution from local-scale processes is necessary to reconcile RSL reconstructions and modeled RSL trends. We identified three latitudinally-organized groups of sites that share coherent regional non-linear trends and indicate that dynamic redistribution of ocean mass by currents and/or winds was likely an important driver of sea-level change in the North Atlantic Ocean during the past ∼3000 years.},
author = {Kemp, Andrew C and Wright, Alexander J and Edwards, Robin J and Barnett, Robert L and Brain, Matthew J and Kopp, Robert E and Cahill, Niamh and Horton, Benjamin P and Charman, Dan J and Hawkes, Andrea D and Hill, Troy D and van de Plassche, Orson},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.10.012},
issn = {0277-3791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
pages = {89--110},
title = {{Relative sea-level change in Newfoundland, Canada during the past ∼3000 years}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379118304980},
volume = {201},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kennedy2019,
author = {Kennedy, J. J. and Rayner, N. A. and Atkinson, C. P. and Killick, R. E.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD029867},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {7719--7763},
title = {{An Ensemble Data Set of Sea Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The Met Office Hadley Centre HadSST.4.0.0.0 Data Set}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD029867},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50152,
abstract = {An updated version of the Met Office Hadley Centre's monthly night marine air temperature data set is presented. It is available on a 5° latitude-longitude grid from 1880 as anomalies relative to 1961–1990 calendar-monthly climatological average night marine air temperature (NMAT). Adjustments are made for changes in observation height; these depend on estimates of the stability of the near surface atmospheric boundary layer. In previous versions of the data set, ad hoc adjustments were also made for three periods and regions where poor observational practice was prevalent. These adjustments are re-examined. Estimates of uncertainty are calculated for every grid box and result from measurement errors, uncertainty in adjustments applied to the observations, uncertainty in the measurement height, and under-sampling. The new data set is a clear improvement over previous versions in terms of coverage because of the recent digitization of historical observations from ships' logbooks. However, the periods prior to about 1890 and around World War II remain particularly uncertain, and sampling is still sparse in some regions in other periods. A further improvement is the availability of uncertainty estimates for every grid box and every month. Previous versions required adjustments that were dependent on contemporary measurements of sea surface temperature (SST); to avoid these, the new data set starts in 1880 rather than 1856. Overall agreement with variations of SST is better for the updated data set than for previous versions, supporting existing estimates of global warming and increasing confidence in the global record of temperature variability and change.},
author = {Kent, Elizabeth C and Rayner, Nick A and Berry, David I and Saunby, Michael and Moat, Bengamin I and Kennedy, John J and Parker, David E},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50152},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {marine air temperature},
number = {3},
pages = {1281--1298},
title = {{Global analysis of night marine air temperature and its uncertainty since 1880: The HadNMAT2 data set}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jgrd.50152},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{10.3389/fmars.2019.00441,
abstract = {Observations of conditions at the ocean surface have been made for centuries, contributing to some of the longest instrumental records of climate change. Most prominent is the climate data record (CDR) of sea surface temperature (SST), which is itself essential to the majority of activities in climate science and climate service provision. A much wider range of surface marine observations is available however, providing a rich source of data on past climate. We present a general error model describing the characteristics of observations used for the construction of climate records, illustrating the importance of multi-variate records with rich metadata for reducing uncertainty in CDRs. We describe the data and metadata requirements for the construction of stable, multi-century marine CDRs for variables important for describing the changing climate: SST, mean sea level pressure, air temperature, humidity, winds, clouds, and waves. Available sources of surface marine data are reviewed in the context of the error model. We outline the need for a range of complementary observations, including very high quality observations at a limited number of locations and also observations that sample more broadly but with greater uncertainty. We describe how high-resolution modern records, particularly those of high-quality, can help to improve the quality of observations throughout the historical record. We recommend the extension of internationally-coordinated data management and curation to observation types that do not have a primary focus of the construction of climate records. Also recommended is reprocessing the existing surface marine climate archive to improve and quantify data and metadata quality and homogeneity. We also recommend the expansion of observations from research vessels and high quality moorings, routine observations from ships and from data and metadata rescue. Other priorities include: field evaluation of sensors; resources for the process of establishing user requirements and determining whether requirements are being met; and research to estimate uncertainty, quantify biases and to improve methods of construction of CDRs. The requirements developed in this paper encompass specific actions involving a variety of stakeholders, including funding agencies, scientists, data managers, observing network operators, satellite agencies, and international co-ordination bodies.},
author = {Kent, Elizabeth C and Rayner, Nick A and Berry, David I and Eastman, Ryan and Grigorieva, Vika G and Huang, Boyin and Kennedy, John J and Smith, Shawn R and Willett, Kate M},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00441},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {441},
title = {{Observing Requirements for Long-Term Climate Records at the Ocean Surface}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00441},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Khan2019,
abstract = {Determining the rates, mechanisms, and geographic variability of relative sea-level (RSL) change following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides insight into the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change, the response of the solid Earth and gravity field to ice-mass redistribution, and constrains statistical and physical models used to project future sea-level rise. To do so in a scientifically robust way requires standardized datasets that enable broad spatial comparisons that minimize bias. As part of a larger goal to develop a unified, spatially-comprehensive post-LGM global RSL database, in this special issue we provide a standardized global synthesis of regional RSL data that resulted from the first ‘Geographic variability of HOLocene relative SEA level (HOLSEA)' meetings in Mt Hood, Oregon (2016) and St Lucia, South Africa (2017). The HOLSEA meetings brought together sea-level researchers to agree upon a consistent protocol to standardize, interpret, and incorporate realistic uncertainties of RSL data. This special issue provides RSL data from ten geographical regions including new databases from Atlantic Europe and the Russian Arctic and revised/expanded databases from Atlantic Canada, the British Isles, the Netherlands, the western Mediterranean, the Adriatic, Israel, Peninsular Malaysia, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean. In total, the database derived from this special issue includes 5634 (5290 validated) index (n = 3202) and limiting points (n = 2088) that span from ∼20,000 years ago to present. Progress in improving the standardization of sea-level databases has also been accompanied by advancements in statistical and analytical methods used to infer spatial patterns and rates of RSL change from geological data that have a spatially and temporally sparse distribution and geochronological and elevational uncertainties. This special issue marks the inception of a unified, spatially-comprehensive post-LGM global RSL database.},
author = {Khan, Nicole S and Horton, Benjamin P and Engelhart, Simon and Rovere, Alessio and Vacchi, Matteo and Ashe, Erica L and T{\"{o}}rnqvist, Torbj{\"{o}}rn E and Dutton, Andrea and Hijma, Marc P and Shennan, Ian},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.016},
issn = {0277-3791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
pages = {359--371},
title = {{Inception of a global atlas of sea levels since the Last Glacial Maximum}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379119306468},
volume = {220},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Khodri2017,
abstract = {Stratospheric aerosols from large tropical explosive volcanic eruptions backscatter shortwave radiation and reduce the global mean surface temperature. Observations suggest that they also favour an El Nin{\~{o}} within 2 years following the eruption. Modelling studies have, however, so far reached no consensus on either the sign or physical mechanism of El Nin{\~{o}} response to volcanism. Here we show that an El Nin{\~{o}} tends to peak during the year following large eruptions in simulations of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Targeted climate model simulations further emphasize that Pinatubo-like eruptions tend to shorten La Nin{\~{a}}s, lengthen El Nin{\~{o}}s and induce anomalous warming when occurring during neutral states. Volcanically induced cooling in tropical Africa weakens the West African monsoon, and the resulting atmospheric Kelvin wave drives equatorial westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific. This wind anomaly is further amplified by air-sea interactions in the Pacific, favouring an El Nin{\~{o}}-like response.},
author = {Khodri, Myriam and Izumo, Takeshi and Vialard, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Janicot, Serge and Cassou, Christophe and Lengaigne, Matthieu and Mignot, Juliette and Gastineau, Guillaume and Guilyardi, Eric and Lebas, Nicolas and Robock, Alan and McPhaden, Michael J.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-00755-6},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {778},
title = {{Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Ni{\~{n}}o by cooling tropical Africa}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00755-6},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kim2018,
author = {Kim, Who M. and Yeager, Stephen and Chang, Ping and Danabasoglu, Gokhan},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0193.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {787--813},
title = {{Low-Frequency North Atlantic Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0193.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kincer1933,
author = {Kincer, J. B.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(1933)61<251:IOCCAS>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0027-0644},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {251--259},
title = {{Is our climate changing? A study of long-time temperature trends}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0493(1933)61{\%}3C251:IOCCAS{\%}3E2.0.CO;2},
volume = {61},
year = {1933}
}
@article{King2017,
abstract = {Limiting warming to 1.5 °C is expected to lessen the risk of extreme events, relative to 2 °C. Considering Australia, this work shows a decrease of about 25{\%} in the likelihood of record heat, both air and sea surface, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C.},
author = {King, Andrew D. and Karoly, David J. and Henley, Benjamin J.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3296},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Attribution,Climate and Earth system modelling,Projection and prediction},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {412--416},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3296},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{King2015,
abstract = {Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means, due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change.},
author = {King, Andrew D. and Donat, Markus G. and Fischer, Erich M. and Hawkins, Ed and Alexander, Lisa V. and Karoly, David J. and Dittus, Andrea J. and Lewis, Sophie C. and Perkins, Sarah E.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,Central England temperature,attribution,precipitation,temperature},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {094015},
title = {{The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=9/a=094015?key=crossref.a935293534a16974fd91c08ca82ca603},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{King2018a,
abstract = {Given the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the target 1.5° and 2°C levels above preindustrial conditions. It is challenging to quantify changes across a small increment of global warming, so a pattern-scaling approach may be considered. Here we investigate the validity of such an approach by comprehensively examining how well local temperatures and warming trends in a 1.5°C world predict local temperatures at global warming of 2°C. Ensembles of transient coupled climate simulations from multiple models under different scenarios were compared and individual model responses were analyzed. For many places, the multimodel forced response of seasonal-average temperatures is approximately linear with global warming between 1.5° and 2°C. However, individual model results vary and large contributions from nonlinear changes in unforced variability or the forced response cannot be ruled out. In some regions, such as East Asia, models simulate substantially greater warming than is expected from linear scaling. Examining East Asia during boreal summer, we find that increased warming in the simulated 2°C world relative to scaling up from 1.5°C is related to reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Our findings suggest that, where forcings other than those due to greenhouse gas emissions change, the warming experienced in a 1.5°C world is a poor predictor for local climate at 2°C of global warming. In addition to the analysis of the linearity in the forced climate change signal, we find that natural variability remains a substantial contribution to uncertainty at these low-warming targets.},
author = {King, Andrew D. and Knutti, Reto and Uhe, Peter and Mitchell, Daniel M. and Lewis, Sophie C. and Arblaster, Julie M. and Freychet, Nicolas},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0649.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {7495--7514},
title = {{On the Linearity of Local and Regional Temperature Changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of Global Warming}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/31/18/7495/92110/On-the-Linearity-of-Local-and-Regional-Temperature},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{King2020,
author = {King, Andrew D. and Lane, Todd P. and Henley, Benjamin J. and Brown, Josephine R.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0658-7},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {42--47},
title = {{Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0658-7},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kirchmeier-Young2017,
author = {Kirchmeier-Young, Megan C. and Zwiers, Francis W. and Gillett, Nathan P.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {553--571},
title = {{Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{KirchmeierYoung2019,
author = {Kirchmeier‐Young, M. C. and Wan, H. and Zhang, X. and Seneviratne, S. I.},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001253},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {1192--1204},
title = {{Importance of Framing for Extreme Event Attribution: The Role of Spatial and Temporal Scales}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001253},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Kirtman2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Kirtman, B. and Power, S.B. and Adedoyin, J.A. and Boer, G.J. and Bojariu, R. and Camilloni, I. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. and Fiore, A.M. and Kimoto, M. and Meehl, G.A. and Prather, M. and Sarr, A. and Sch{\"{a}}r, C. and Sutton, R. and van Oldenborgh, G.J. and Vecchi, G. and Wang, H.J.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023},
editor = {Stocker, T.F. and Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Allen, S.K. and Boschung, J. and Nauels, A. and Xia, Y. and Bex, V. and Midgley, P.M.},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {953--1028},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Kistler2001a,
author = {Kistler, R and Kalnay, E and Collins, W and Saha, S and White, G and Woollen, J and Chelliah, M and Ebisuzaki, W and Kanamitsu, M and Kousky, V and van den Dool, H and Jenne, R and Fiorino, M},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0247:TNNYRM>2.3.CO;2},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
pages = {247--268},
title = {{The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation}},
volume = {74},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Klein2013,
author = {Klein, Stephen A. and Zhang, Yuying and Zelinka, Mark D. and Pincus, Robert and Boyle, James and Gleckler, Peter J.},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50141},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1329--1342},
title = {{Are climate model simulations of clouds improving? An evaluation using the ISCCP simulator}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jgrd.50141},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Klein2015,
abstract = {Emergent constraints are physically explainable empirical relationships between characteristics of the current climate and long-term climate prediction that emerge in collections of climate model simulations. With the prospect of constraining long-term climate prediction, scientists have recently uncovered several emergent constraints related to long-term cloud feedbacks. We review these proposed emergent constraints, many of which involve the behavior of low-level clouds, and discuss criteria to assess their credibility. With further research, some of the cases we review may eventually become confirmed emergent constraints, provided they are accompanied by credible physical explanations. Because confirmed emergent constraints identify a source of model error that projects onto climate predictions, they deserve extra attention from those developing climate models and climate observations. While a systematic bias cannot be ruled out, it is noteworthy that the promising emergent constraints suggest larger cloud feedback and hence climate sensitivity.},
author = {Klein, Stephen A and Hall, Alex},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-015-0027-1},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {276--287},
title = {{Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0027-1},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2119.1,
abstract = {Abstract Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled general circulation models, climate models of intermediate complexity, and simple models, and uncertainty ranges and probabilistic projections from various published methods and models are assessed. Despite substantial improvements in climate models, projections for given scenarios on average have not changed much in recent years. Recent progress has, however, increased the confidence in uncertainty estimates and now allows a better separation of the uncertainties introduced by scenarios, physical feedbacks, carbon cycle, and structural uncertainty. Projection uncertainties are now constrained by observations and therefore consistent with past observed trends and patterns. Future trends in global temperature resulting from anthropogenic forcing over the next few decades are found to be comparably well constrained. Uncertainties for projections on the century time scale, when accounting for structural and feedback uncertainties, are larger than captured in single models or methods. This is due to differences in the models, the sources of uncertainty taken into account, the type of observational constraints used, and the statistical assumptions made. It is shown that as an approximation, the relative uncertainty range for projected warming in 2100 is the same for all scenarios. Inclusion of uncertainties in carbon cycle–climate feedbacks extends the upper bound of the uncertainty range by more than the lower bound.},
author = {Knutti, R and Allen, M R and Friedlingstein, P and Gregory, J M and Hegerl, G C and Meehl, G A and Meinshausen, M and Murphy, J M and Plattner, G.-K. and Raper, S C B and Stocker, T F and Stott, P A and Teng, H and Wigley, T M L},
doi = {10.1175/2007JCLI2119.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {2651--2663},
title = {{A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2119.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2007JCLI2119.1},
volume = {21},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Knutti2010,
author = {Knutti, Reto and Furrer, Reinhard and Tebaldi, Claudia and Cermak, Jan and Meehl, Gerald A.},
doi = {10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {2739--2758},
title = {{Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI3361.1},
volume = {23},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Knutti2017,
author = {Knutti, Reto and Sedl{\'{a}}{\v{c}}ek, Jan and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Lorenz, Ruth and Fischer, Erich M. and Eyring, Veronika},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL072012},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {4},
pages = {1909--1918},
title = {{A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL072012},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Knutti2013,
author = {Knutti, Reto and Masson, David and Gettelman, Andrew},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50256},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {1194--1199},
title = {{Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/grl.50256},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Knutti2018,
abstract = {Philosophical perspectives on numerical models help us to understand concepts, but will not predict the climate in the future. Studying climate model results in isolation on the other hand may seduce us to believe what we simulate will actually happen. A model is neither correct nor wrong as such; it is simply more or less useful as a representational tool for a certain purpose. I argue that process understanding is the key to make judgments about when this tool is adequate for insight relevant to certain aspects of the real world. It is only through understanding the relationships in components and variables of the climate and their representation in models, combined with understanding what our models are supposed to do, that we can make better use of them.},
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Knutti, Reto},
booktitle = {Climate Modelling: Philosophical and Conceptual Issues},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_11},
editor = {{A. Lloyd}, Elisabeth and Winsberg, Eric},
isbn = {978-3-319-65058-6},
pages = {325--359},
publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan},
title = {{Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6{\_}11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Knutti2002,
author = {Knutti, Reto and Stocker, Thomas F. and Joos, Fortunat and Plattner, Gian-Kasper},
doi = {10.1038/416719a},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {apr},
number = {6882},
pages = {719--723},
title = {{Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/416719a},
volume = {416},
year = {2002}
}
@article{Kobayashi2015,
abstract = {The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) conducted the second Japanese global atmospheric reanalysis, called the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis or JRA-55. It covers the period from 1958, when regular radiosonde observations began on a global basis. JRA-55 is the first comprehensive reanalysis that has covered the last half-century since the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 45-year Reanalysis (ERA-40), and is the first one to apply four-dimensional variational analysis to this period. The main objectives of JRA-55 were to address issues found in previous reanalyses and to produce a comprehensive atmospheric dataset suitable for studying multidecadal variability and climate change. This paper describes the observations, data assimilation system, and forecast model used to produce JRA-55 as well as the basic characteristics of the JRA-55 product. JRA-55 has been produced with the TL319 version of JMA's operational data assimilation system as of December 2009, which was extensively improved since the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25). It also uses several newly available and improved past observations. The resulting reanalysis products are considerably better than the JRA-25 product. Two major problems of JRA-25 were a cold bias in the lower stratosphere, which has been diminished, and a dry bias in the Amazon basin, which has been mitigated. The temporal consistency of temperature analysis has also been considerably improved compared to previous reanalysis products. Our initial quality evaluation revealed problems such as a warm bias in the upper troposphere, large upward imbalance in the global mean net energy fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface, excessive precipitation over the tropics, and unrealistic trends in analyzed tropical cyclone strength. This paper also assesses the impacts of model biases and changes in the observing system, and mentions efforts to further investigate the representation of low-frequency variability and trends in JRA-55.},
author = {Kobayashi, Shinya and Ota, Yukinari and Harada, Yayoi and Ebita, Ayataka and Moriya, Masami and Onoda, Hirokatsu and Onogi, Kazutoshi and Kamahori, Hirotaka and Kobayashi, Chiaki and Endo, Hirokazu and Miyaoka, Kengo and Kiyotoshi, Takahashi},
doi = {10.2151/jmsj.2015-001},
issn = {00261165},
journal = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Series II},
keywords = {Data assimilation,Meteorological observation,Numerical weather prediction,Reanalysis},
number = {1},
pages = {5--48},
title = {{The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics}},
url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/93/1/93{\_}2015-001/{\_}article},
volume = {93},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Koch2019a,
author = {Koch, Alexander and Brierley, Chris and Maslin, Mark M. and Lewis, Simon L.},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.12.004},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
month = {mar},
pages = {13--36},
title = {{Earth system impacts of the European arrival and Great Dying in the Americas after 1492}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379118307261},
volume = {207},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Kolstad2014,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Kolstad, C. and Urama, K. and Broome, J. and Bruvoll, A. and {Cari{\~{n}}o Olvera}, M. and Fullerton, D. and Gollier, C. and Hanemann, W. M. and Hassan, R. and Jotzo, F. and Khan, M.R. and Meyer, L. and Mundaca, L.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415416.009},
editor = {Edenhofer, O. and Pichs-Madruga, R. and Sokona, Y. and Farahani, E. and Kadner, S. and Seyboth, K. and Adler, A. and Baum, I. and Brunner, S. and Eickemeier, P. and Kriemann, B. and Savolainen, J. and Schl{\"{o}}mer, S. and von Stechow, C. and Zwickel, T. and Minx, J.C.},
isbn = {9781107058217},
pages = {207--282},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3},
year = {2014}
}
@article{essd-12-2261-2020,
author = {Konecky, B L and McKay, N P and {Churakova (Sidorova)}, O V and Comas-Bru, L and Dassi{\'{e}}, E P and DeLong, K L and Falster, G M and Fischer, M J and Jones, M D and Jonkers, L and Kaufman, D S and Leduc, G and Managave, S R and Martrat, B and Opel, T and Orsi, A J and Partin, J W and Sayani, H R and Thomas, E K and Thompson, D M and Tyler, J J and Abram, N J and Atwood, A R and Cartapanis, O and Conroy, J L and Curran, M A and Dee, S G and Deininger, M and Divine, D V and Kern, Z and Porter, T J and Stevenson, S L and von Gunten, L and Members, Iso2k Project},
doi = {10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
number = {3},
pages = {2261--2288},
title = {{The Iso2k database: a global compilation of paleo-$\delta$18O and $\delta$2H records to aid understanding of Common Era climate}},
url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2261/2020/},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Konsta2016,
author = {Konsta, D. and Dufresne, J.-L. and Chepfer, H. and Idelkadi, A. and Cesana, G.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2900-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1263--1284},
title = {{Use of A-train satellite observations (CALIPSO-PARASOL) to evaluate tropical cloud properties in the LMDZ5 GCM}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2900-y},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Konsta2012,
author = {Konsta, Dimitra and Chepfer, Helene and Dufresne, Jean-Louis},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1533-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {nov},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2091--2108},
title = {{A process oriented characterization of tropical oceanic clouds for climate model evaluation, based on a statistical analysis of daytime A-train observations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1533-7},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Kopp2016,
author = {Kopp, Robert E. and Kemp, Andrew C. and Bittermann, Klaus and Horton, Benjamin P. and Donnelly, Jeffrey P. and Gehrels, W. Roland and Hay, Carling C. and Mitrovica, Jerry X. and Morrow, Eric D. and Rahmstorf, Stefan},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1517056113},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {11},
pages = {E1434--E1441},
title = {{Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1517056113},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2014EF000239,
abstract = {Abstract Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90{\%} probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.},
author = {Kopp, Robert E and Horton, Radley M and Little, Christopher M and Mitrovica, Jerry X and Oppenheimer, Michael and Rasmussen, D J and Strauss, Benjamin H and Tebaldi, Claudia},
doi = {10.1002/2014EF000239},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {climate change,coastal flooding,risk analysis,sea level,uncertainty quantification},
number = {8},
pages = {383--406},
title = {{Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014EF000239},
volume = {2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Kravitz2015,
abstract = {Abstract. We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.},
author = {Kravitz, B. and Robock, A. and Tilmes, S. and Boucher, O. and English, J. M. and Irvine, P. J. and Jones, A. and Lawrence, M. G. and MacCracken, M. and Muri, H. and Moore, J. C. and Niemeier, U. and Phipps, S. J. and Sillmann, J. and Storelvmo, T. and Wang, H. and Watanabe, S.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {3379--3392},
title = {{The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/8/3379/2015/},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kriegler2012,
author = {Kriegler, Elmar and O'Neill, Brian C. and Hallegatte, Stephane and Kram, Tom and Lempert, Robert J. and Moss, Richard H. and Wilbanks, Thomas},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {oct},
number = {4},
pages = {807--822},
title = {{The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378012000593},
volume = {22},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Kroeger2017,
author = {Kroeger, Kevin D. and Crooks, Stephen and Moseman-Valtierra, Serena and Tang, Jianwu},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-12138-4},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {11914},
title = {{Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12138-4},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@book{Kuhn1977,
address = {Chicago, IL, USA},
annote = {{\$}34.00
Used Price: {\$}6.60
Collectible Price: {\$}57.12},
author = {Kuhn, Thomas S},
isbn = {0226458067},
pages = {390},
publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
title = {{The Essential Tension: Selected Studies in Scientific Tradition and Change}},
year = {1977}
}
@article{Luthi2008,
author = {L{\"{u}}thi, Dieter and {Le Floch}, Martine and Bereiter, Bernhard and Blunier, Thomas and Barnola, Jean-Marc and Siegenthaler, Urs and Raynaud, Dominique and Jouzel, Jean and Fischer, Hubertus and Kawamura, Kenji and Stocker, Thomas F.},
doi = {10.1038/nature06949},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {may},
number = {7193},
pages = {379--382},
title = {{High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature06949},
volume = {453},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Lucio2016,
abstract = {There is a growing and urgent need to improve society's resilience to climate-related hazards and better manage the risks and opportunities arising from climate variability and climate change.},
author = {L{\'{u}}cio, Filipe Domingos Freires and Grasso, Veronica},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2016.09.001},
isbn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {comment,nion},
month = {sep},
pages = {52--53},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880716300541?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {2-3},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Løhre2019,
abstract = {The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide intervals are also less informative about what the outcome will be than narrow intervals, implying a lack of knowledge or subjective uncertainty in the forecaster. In six experiments, we investigate how laypeople perceive the (un)certainty associated with wide and narrow interval forecasts, and find that the preference for accuracy (seeing wide intervals as “objectively” certain) versus informativeness (seeing wide intervals as indicating “subjective” uncertainty) is influenced by contextual cues (e.g., question formulation). Most important, we find that people more commonly and intuitively associate wide intervals with uncertainty than with certainty. Our research thus challenges the wisdom of using wide intervals to construct statements of high certainty in climate change reports.},
author = {L{\o}hre, Erik and Juanchich, Marie and Sirota, Miroslav and Teigen, Karl Halvor and Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0136.1},
issn = {1948-8327},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {565--575},
title = {{Climate Scientists' Wide Prediction Intervals May Be More Likely but Are Perceived to Be Less Certain}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/wcas/article/11/3/565/344454/Climate-Scientists-Wide-Prediction-Intervals-May},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lacis2010,
author = {Lacis, A. A. and Schmidt, G. A. and Rind, D. and Ruedy, R. A.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1190653},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {oct},
number = {6002},
pages = {356--359},
title = {{Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth's Temperature}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1190653},
volume = {330},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Lacis2013,
author = {Lacis, Andrew A. and Hansen, James E. and Russell, Gary L. and Oinas, Valdar and Jonas, Jeffrey},
doi = {10.3402/tellusb.v65i0.19734},
issn = {1600-0889},
journal = {Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {19734},
title = {{The role of long-lived greenhouse gases as principal LW control knob that governs the global surface temperature for past and future climate change}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/tellusb.v65i0.19734},
volume = {65},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Laidler2006,
author = {Laidler, Gita J.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9064-z},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {sep},
number = {2-4},
pages = {407--444},
title = {{Inuit and Scientific Perspectives on the Relationship Between Sea Ice and Climate Change: The Ideal Complement?}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-006-9064-z},
volume = {78},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Laloyaux2018,
abstract = {CERA‐20C is a coupled reanalysis of the twentieth century which aims to reconstruct the past weather and climate of the Earth system including the atmosphere, ocean, land, ocean waves and sea ice. This reanalysis is based on the CERA coupled atmosphere‐ocean assimilation system developed at ECMWF. CERA‐20C provides a 10‐member ensemble of reanalyses to account for errors in the observational record as well as model error. It benefited from the prior experience of the retrospective atmospheric analysis ERA‐20C. The dynamical model and the data assimilation systems initially developed for NWP had been modified to take into account the evolution of the radiative forcing and the observing system. To limit the impact of changes in the observing system throughout the century, only conventional surface observations have been used in the atmosphere. CERA‐20C improves the specification of the background and the observation errors, two key elements to ensure a consistent weighting of the uncertainties across geophysical variables, space and time. The quality of CERA‐20C has been evaluated against other centennial reanalyses and independent observations. Although CERA‐20C inherits some limitations of ERA‐20C to represent correctly the tropical cyclones in the first part of the century, it shows significant improvements in the troposphere, compared to ERA‐20C and 20CRv2c (the 20th century reanalysis produced by NOAA/CIRES). A preliminary study of the climate variability in CERA‐20C has been carried out. CERA‐20C improves on the representation of atmosphere‐ocean heat fluxes and mean sea level pressure compared to previous uncoupled ocean and atmospheric historical reanalyses performed at ECMWF.},
author = {Laloyaux, Patrick and de Boisseson, Eric and Balmaseda, Magdalena and Bidlot, Jean Raymond and Broennimann, Stefan and Buizza, Roberto and Dalhgren, Per and Dee, Dick and Haimberger, Leopold and Hersbach, Hans and Kosaka, Yuki and Martin, Matthew and Poli, Paul and Rayner, Nick and Rustemeier, Elke and Schepers, Dinand},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001273},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {Climate reanalysis,Coupled assimilation,Earth system model},
number = {5},
pages = {1172--1195},
title = {{CERA-20C: A Coupled Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century}},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lamarque2011,
author = {Lamarque, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Kyle, G. Page and Meinshausen, Malte and Riahi, Keywan and Smith, Steven J. and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Conley, Andrew J. and Vitt, Francis},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {1-2},
pages = {191--212},
title = {{Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0},
volume = {109},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Lamb1965,
author = {Lamb, H.H.},
doi = {10.1016/0031-0182(65)90004-0},
issn = {00310182},
journal = {Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology},
month = {jan},
pages = {13--37},
title = {{The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0031018265900040},
volume = {1},
year = {1965}
}
@book{Lamb1995,
address = {London, UK},
annote = {Qc981 .l277 1995
551.6},
author = {Lamb, Hubert H},
isbn = {0-415-12734-3},
keywords = {Climatology},
pages = {464},
publisher = {Routledge},
title = {{Climate, History, and the Modern World}},
year = {1995}
}
@article{Lamboll2020,
author = {Lamboll, Robin D. and Nicholls, Zebedee R. J. and Kikstra, Jarmo S. and Meinshausen, Malte and Rogelj, Joeri},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-5259-2020},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {5259--5275},
title = {{Silicone v1.0.0: an open-source Python package for inferring missing emissions data for climate change research}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/5259/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Landsberg1961,
author = {Landsberg, H.E.},
doi = {10.1016/0038-092X(61)90051-2},
issn = {0038092X},
journal = {Solar Energy},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {95--98},
title = {{Solar radiation at the earth's surface}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0038092X61900512},
volume = {5},
year = {1961}
}
@misc{Lange2019,
author = {Lange, Stefan},
doi = {10.5880/pik.2019.023},
publisher = {GFZ Data Services},
title = {{WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5). V. 1.0}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2019.023},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{LangwayJr2008,
address = {Hanover, NH, USA},
author = {{Langway Jr}, Chester C},
doi = {https://hdl.handle.net/11681/5296},
pages = {47},
publisher = {U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL)},
series = {ERDC/CRREL TR-08-1},
title = {{The history of early polar ice cores}},
url = {https://hdl.handle.net/11681/5296},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Laskar et al. 1993,
author = {Laskar, J. and Joutel, F. and Boudin, F.},
journal = {Astronomy and Astrophysics},
pages = {522--533},
title = {{Orbital, precessional, and insolation quantities for the earth from -20 Myr to +10 Myr}},
volume = {270},
year = {1993}
}
@article{gmd-13-4205-2020,
abstract = {Abstract. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for evaluation and analysis of Earth system models (ESMs), is designed to facilitate a more comprehensive and rapid comparison of single or multiple models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The ESM results can be compared against observations or reanalysis data as well as against other models including predecessor versions of the same model. The updated and extended version (v2.0) of the ESMValTool includes several new analysis scripts such as large-scale diagnostics for evaluation of ESMs as well as diagnostics for extreme events, regional model and impact evaluation. In this paper, the newly implemented climate metrics such as effective climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) as well as emergent constraints for various climate-relevant feedbacks and diagnostics for future projections from ESMs are described and illustrated with examples using results from the well-established model ensemble CMIP5. The emergent constraints implemented include constraints on ECS, snow-albedo effect, climate–carbon cycle feedback, hydrologic cycle intensification, future Indian summer monsoon precipitation and year of disappearance of summer Arctic sea ice. The diagnostics included in ESMValTool v2.0 to analyze future climate projections from ESMs further include analysis scripts to reproduce selected figures of chapter 12 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and various multi-model statistics.},
author = {Lauer, Axel and Eyring, Veronika and Bellprat, Omar and Bock, Lisa and Gier, Bettina K and Hunter, Alasdair and Lorenz, Ruth and P{\'{e}}rez-Zan{\'{o}}n, N{\'{u}}ria and Righi, Mattia and Schlund, Manuel and Senftleben, Daniel and Weigel, Katja and Zechlau, Sabrina},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-4205-2020},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {4205--4228},
title = {{Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – diagnostics for emergent constraints and future projections from Earth system models in CMIP}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/4205/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lawrence2016a,
abstract = {Abstract. Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past–future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management strategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land–atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use. LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.},
author = {Lawrence, David M. and Hurtt, George C and Arneth, Almut and Brovkin, Victor and Calvin, Kate V and Jones, Andrew D and Jones, Chris D and Lawrence, Peter J and de Noblet-Ducoudr{\'{e}}, Nathalie and Pongratz, Julia and Seneviratne, Sonia I and Shevliakova, Elena},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {2973--2998},
title = {{The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/2973/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Laxon2003,
author = {Laxon, Seymour and Peacock, Neil and Smith, Doug},
doi = {10.1038/nature02050},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {oct},
number = {6961},
pages = {947--950},
title = {{High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature02050},
volume = {425},
year = {2003}
}
@article{gmd-12-2481-2019,
author = {Le clec'h, S and Quiquet, A and Charbit, S and Dumas, C and Kageyama, M and Ritz, C},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-2481-2019},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {6},
pages = {2481--2499},
title = {{A rapidly converging initialisation method to simulate the present-day Greenland ice sheet using the GRISLI ice sheet model (version 1.3)}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2481/2019/},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{essd-10-2141-2018,
author = {{Le Qu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}}, Corinne and Andrew, Robbie M. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Sitch, Stephen and Hauck, Judith and Pongratz, Julia and Pickers, Penelope A. and Korsbakken, Jan Ivar and Peters, Glen P. and Canadell, Josep G. and Arneth, Almut and Arora, Vivek K. and Barbero, Leticia and Bastos, Ana and Bopp, Laurent and Chevallier, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Chini, Louise P. and Ciais, Philippe and Doney, Scott C. and Gkritzalis, Thanos and Goll, Daniel S. and Harris, Ian and Haverd, Vanessa and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Hoppema, Mario and Houghton, Richard A. and Hurtt, George and Ilyina, Tatiana and Jain, Atul K. and Johannessen, Truls and Jones, Chris D. and Kato, Etsushi and Keeling, Ralph F. and Goldewijk, Kees Klein and Landsch{\"{u}}tzer, Peter and Lef{\`{e}}vre, Nathalie and Lienert, Sebastian and Liu, Zhu and Lombardozzi, Danica and Metzl, Nicolas and Munro, David R. and Nabel, Julia E. M. S. and Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro and Neill, Craig and Olsen, Are and Ono, Tsueno and Patra, Prabir and Peregon, Anna and Peters, Wouter and Peylin, Philippe and Pfeil, Benjamin and Pierrot, Denis and Poulter, Benjamin and Rehder, Gregor and Resplandy, Laure and Robertson, Eddy and Rocher, Matthias and R{\"{o}}denbeck, Christian and Schuster, Ute and Schwinger, J{\"{o}}rg and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland and Skjelvan, Ingunn and Steinhoff, Tobias and Sutton, Adrienne and Tans, Pieter P. and Tian, Hanqin and Tilbrook, Bronte and Tubiello, Francesco N. and van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. and van der Werf, Guido R. and Viovy, Nicolas and Walker, Anthony P. and Wiltshire, Andrew J. and Wright, Rebecca and Zaehle, S{\"{o}}nke and Zheng, Bo},
doi = {10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018},
issn = {1866-3516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {2141--2194},
title = {{Global Carbon Budget 2018}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/2141/2018/},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{LeQuere2020a,
abstract = {Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by –17{\%} (–11 to –25{\%} for ±1$\sigma$) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26{\%} on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4{\%} (–2 to –7{\%}) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7{\%} (–3 to –13{\%}) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO2 emissions path for decades.},
author = {{Le Qu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}}, Corinne and Jackson, Robert B and Jones, Matthew W and Smith, Adam J P and Abernethy, Sam and Andrew, Robbie M and De-Gol, Anthony J and Willis, David R and Shan, Yuli and Canadell, Josep G and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Creutzig, Felix and Peters, Glen P},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x},
issn = {1758-6798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {7},
pages = {647--653},
title = {{Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@book{LeRoyLadurie1967,
address = {Paris, France},
annote = {Times cited: 33},
author = {{Le Roy Ladurie}, Emmanuel},
pages = {376},
publisher = {Flammarion},
title = {{Histoire du climat depuis l'an mil}},
year = {1967}
}
@incollection{LeTreut2007,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {{Le Treut}, H. and Sommervile, R. and Cubasch, U. and Ding, Y. and Mauritzen, C. and Mokssit, A. and Peterson, T. and Prather, M.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1},
editor = {Solomon, S. and Qin, D. and Manning, M. and Chen, Z. and Marquis, M. and Averyt, K.B. and Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L.},
isbn = {9780521880091},
pages = {93--127},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Historical Overview of Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Leduc2019,
abstract = {The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE) consists of a dynamically downscaled version of the CanESM2 50-member initial-conditions ensemble (CanESM2-LE). The downscaling was performed at 12-km resolution over two domains, Europe (EU) and northeastern North America (NNA), and the simulations extend from 1950 to 2099, following the RCP8.5 scenario. In terms of validation, warm biases are found over the EU and NNA domains during summer, whereas during winter cold and warm biases appear over EU and NNA, respectively. For precipitation, simulations are generally wetter than the observations but slight dry biases also occur in summer. Climate change projections for 2080–99 (relative to 2000–19) show temperature changes reaching 8°C in summer over some parts of Europe, and exceeding 12°C in northern Qu{\'{e}}bec during winter. For precipitation, central Europe will become much dryer during summer (−2 mm day−1) and wetter during winter ({\textgreater}1.2 mm day−1). Similar changes are observed over NNA, although summer drying is not as prominent. Projected changes in temperature interannual variability were also investigated, generally showing increasing and decreasing variability during summer and winter, respectively. Temperature variability is found to increase by more than 70{\%} in some parts of central Europe during summer and to increase by 80{\%} in the northernmost part of Qu{\'{e}}bec during the month of May as the snow cover becomes subject to high year-to-year variability in the future. Finally, CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE are compared with respect to extreme precipitation, showing evidence that the higher resolution of CRCM5-LE allows a more realistic representation of local extremes, especially over coastal and mountainous regions.},
author = {Leduc, Martin and Mailhot, Alain and Frigon, Anne and Martel, Jean-Luc and Ludwig, Ralf and Brietzke, Gilbert B and Gigu{\`{e}}re, Michel and Brissette, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Turcotte, Richard and Braun, Marco and Scinocca, John},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0021.1},
issn = {1558-8424},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {663--693},
title = {{The ClimEx Project: A 50-Member Ensemble of Climate Change Projections at 12-km Resolution over Europe and Northeastern North America with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0021.1},
volume = {58},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lee2015,
author = {Lee, Tien Ming and Markowitz, Ezra M. and Howe, Peter D. and Ko, Chia-Ying and Leiserowitz, Anthony A.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2728},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1014--1020},
title = {{Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2728},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{acp-11-12253-2011,
author = {Lee, L A and Carslaw, K S and Pringle, K J and Mann, G W and Spracklen, D V},
doi = {10.5194/acp-11-12253-2011},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {23},
pages = {12253--12273},
title = {{Emulation of a complex global aerosol model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/12253/2011/},
volume = {11},
year = {2011}
}
@incollection{Legget1992,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Leggett, J and Pepper, W.J. and Swart, R.J.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/climate-change-1992-the-supplementary-report-to-the-ipcc-scientific-assessment},
editor = {Houghton, J.T. and Callander, B.A. and Varney, S.K.},
isbn = {0521438292},
pages = {69--95},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Emissions scenarios for the IPCC: an Update}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/climate-change-1992-the-supplementary-report-to-the-ipcc-scientific-assessment},
year = {1992}
}
@article{Lehner2017,
abstract = {Time of emergence of anthropogenic climate change is a crucial metric in risk assessments surrounding future climate predictions. However, internal climate variability impairs the ability to make accurate statements about when climate change emerges from a background reference state. None of the existing efforts to explore uncertainties in time of emergence has explicitly explored the role of internal atmospheric circulation variability. Here a dynamical adjustment method based on constructed circulation analogs is used to provide new estimates of time of emergence of anthropogenic warming over North America and Europe from both a local and spatially aggregated perspective. After removing the effects of internal atmospheric circulation variability, the emergence of anthropogenic warming occurs on average two decades earlier in winter and one decade earlier in summer over North America and Europe. Dynamical adjustment increases the percentage of land area over which warming has emerged by about 30{\%} and 15{\%} in winter (10{\%} and 5{\%} in summer) over North America and Europe, respectively. Using a large ensemble of simulations with a climate model, evidence is provided that thermodynamic factors related to variations in snow cover, sea ice, and soil moisture are important drivers of the remaining uncertainty in time of emergence. Model biases in variability lead to an underestimation (13{\%}–22{\%} over North America and {\textless}5{\%} over Europe) of the land fraction emerged by 2010 in summer, indicating that the forced warming signal emerges earlier in observations than suggested by models. The results herein illustrate opportunities for future detection and attribution studies to improve physical understanding by explicitly accounting for internal atmospheric circulation variability.},
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Deser, Clara and Terray, Laurent},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {7739--7756},
title = {{Toward a New Estimate of “Time of Emergence” of Anthropogenic Warming: Insights from Dynamical Adjustment and a Large Initial-Condition Model Ensemble}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lehner2015,
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Stocker, Thomas F.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2660},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {731--734},
title = {{From local perception to global perspective}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2660},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lehner,
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Deser, Clara and Maher, Nicola and Marotzke, Jochem and Fischer, Erich M. and Brunner, Lukas and Knutti, Reto and Hawkins, Ed},
doi = {10.5194/esd-11-491-2020},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {491--508},
title = {{Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/491/2020/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Leiserowitz2006,
author = {Leiserowitz, Anthony},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9059-9},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {aug},
number = {1-2},
pages = {45--72},
title = {{Climate Change Risk Perception and Policy Preferences: The Role of Affect, Imagery, and Values}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-006-9059-9},
volume = {77},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Lejeune2018,
abstract = {The effects of past land-cover changes on climate are disputed1–3. Previous modelling studies have generally concluded that the biogeophysical effects of historical deforestation led to an annual mean cooling in the northern mid-latitudes3,4, in line with the albedo-induced negative radiative forcing from land-cover changes since pre-industrial time reported in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report
5
. However, further observational and modelling studies have highlighted strong seasonal and diurnal contrasts in the temperature response to deforestation6–10. Here, we show that historical deforestation has led to a substantial local warming of hot days over the northern mid-latitudes—a finding that contrasts with most previous model results11,12. Based on observation-constrained state-of-the-art climate-model experiments, we estimate that moderate reductions in tree cover in these regions have contributed at least one-third of the local present-day warming of the hottest day of the year since pre-industrial time, and were responsible for most of this warming before 1980. These results emphasize that land-cover changes need to be considered when studying past and future changes in heat extremes, and highlight a potentially overlooked co-benefit of forest-based carbon mitigation through local biogeophysical mechanisms.},
author = {Lejeune, Quentin and Davin, Edouard L. and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Winckler, Johannes and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0131-z},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {386--390},
title = {{Historical deforestation locally increased the intensity of hot days in northern mid-latitudes}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0131-z},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{os-14-1093-2018,
author = {Lellouche, Jean-Michel and Greiner, Eric and {Le Galloudec}, Olivier and Garric, Gilles and Regnier, Charly and Drevillon, Marie and Benkiran, Mounir and Testut, Charles-Emmanuel and Bourdalle-Badie, Romain and Gasparin, Florent and Hernandez, Olga and Levier, Bruno and Drillet, Yann and Remy, Elisabeth and {Le Traon}, Pierre-Yves},
doi = {10.5194/os-14-1093-2018},
issn = {1812-0792},
journal = {Ocean Science},
month = {sep},
number = {5},
pages = {1093--1126},
title = {{Recent updates to the Copernicus Marine Service global ocean monitoring and forecasting real-time 1∕12° high-resolution system}},
url = {https://os.copernicus.org/articles/14/1093/2018/},
volume = {14},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lemos2014,
abstract = {While research focusing on how boundary organizations influence the use of climate information has expanded substantially in the past few decades, there has been relatively less attention to how these organizations innovate and adapt to different environments and users. This paper investigates how one boundary organization, the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), has adapted by creating “boundary chains” to diversify its client base while minimizing transaction costs, increasing scientific knowledge usability, and better meeting client climate information needs. In this approach, boundary organizations connect like links in a chain and together these links span the range between the production of knowledge and its use. Three main chain configurations are identified. In the key chain approach, GLISA has partnered with other organizations in a number of separate projects simultaneously, diversifying its client base without sacrificing customization. In the linked chain approach, GLISA is one of several linked boundary organizations that successively deepen the level of customization to meet particular users' needs. Finally, by partnering with multiple organizations and stakeholder groups in both configurations, GLISA may be laying the groundwork for enhancing their partners' own capacity to make climate-related decisions through a networked chain approach that facilitates cooperation among organizations and groups. Each of these approaches represents an adaptive strategy that both enhances the efficiency and effectiveness of participating boundary organizations' work and improves the provision of climate information that meets users' needs.},
author = {Lemos, Maria Carmen and Kirchhoff, Christine J. and Kalafatis, Scott E. and Scavia, Donald and Rood, Richard B.},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00044.1},
isbn = {1523-1739},
issn = {1948-8327},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {273--285},
pmid = {23574343},
title = {{Moving Climate Information off the Shelf: Boundary Chains and the Role of RISAs as Adaptive Organizations}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/wcas/article/6/2/273/897/Moving-Climate-Information-off-the-Shelf-Boundary},
volume = {6},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Lemos2005,
abstract = {This paper examines the use of interactive models of research in the US regional integrated scientific assessments (RISAS), using as a case study the climate assessment of the Southwest (CLIMAS). It focuses on three components of regional climate assessments: interdisciplinarity, interaction with stakeholders and production of usable knowledge, and on the role of three explanatory variables - the level of 'fit' between state of knowledge production and application, disciplinary and personal flexibility, and availability of resources - which affect the co-production of science and policy in the context of integrated assessments. It finds that although no single model can fulfill the multitude of goals of such assessments, it is in highly interactive models that the possibilities of higher levels of innovation and related social impact are most likely to occur. {\textcopyright} 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
author = {Lemos, Maria Carmen and Morehouse, Barbara J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.09.004},
isbn = {0959-3780},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
keywords = {Integrated assessment,Iterative model,Stakeholder interaction,Usable science},
month = {apr},
number = {1},
pages = {57--68},
title = {{The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378004000652},
volume = {15},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Lemos2012,
author = {Lemos, Maria Carmen and Kirchhoff, Christine J. and Ramprasad, Vijay},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1614},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {789--794},
title = {{Narrowing the climate information usability gap}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1614},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Lemos2018,
author = {Lemos, Maria Carmen and Arnott, James C. and Ardoin, Nicole M. and Baja, Kristin and Bednarek, Angela T. and Dewulf, Art and Fieseler, Clare and Goodrich, Kristen A. and Jagannathan, Kripa and Klenk, Nicole and Mach, Katharine J. and Meadow, Alison M. and Meyer, Ryan and Moss, Richard and Nichols, Leah and Sjostrom, K. Dana and Stults, Missy and Turnhout, Esther and Vaughan, Catherine and Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle and Wyborn, Carina},
doi = {10.1038/s41893-018-0191-0},
issn = {2398-9629},
journal = {Nature Sustainability},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {722--724},
title = {{To co-produce or not to co-produce}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0191-0},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lenton2008a,
author = {Lenton, T. M. and Held, H. and Kriegler, E. and Hall, J. W. and Lucht, W. and Rahmstorf, S. and Schellnhuber, H. J.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0705414105},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {6},
pages = {1786--1793},
title = {{Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0705414105},
volume = {105},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Leonard2014,
author = {Leonard, Michael and Westra, Seth and Phatak, Aloke and Lambert, Martin and van den Hurk, Bart and McInnes, Kathleen and Risbey, James and Schuster, Sandra and Jakob, Doerte and Stafford-Smith, Mark},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.252},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {113--128},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A compound event framework for understanding extreme impacts}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.252},
volume = {5},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Lewis2019a,
abstract = {Extreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders.},
author = {Lewis, Sophie C. and King, Andrew D. and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E. and Wehner, Michael F.},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001273},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {attribution,climate change,communication,extreme events},
number = {9},
pages = {1020--1026},
title = {{Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies}},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Li2020f,
author = {Li, Dawei and Yuan, Jiacan and Kopp, Robert E},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d04},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {6},
pages = {064003},
title = {{Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d04},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Liang2020,
abstract = {The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive includes larger ensembles, longer historical simulations, and models with a broader range of climate sensitivity than CMIP5. These features favor the application of observationally constrained climate projections. The 1970–2014 trend in global mean temperature is well-correlated with projected future warming across the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. We first evaluate an approach that weights simulations based on the realism and degree of independence of their 1970–2014 trends, by treating each historical simulation in turn as pseudo-observations, and using the other models and weighting method to predict 21st century warming in the model concerned. The method performs well based on correlation and probabilistic measures. Applying the method using the observed 1970–2014 warming trend results in only small changes in the mean and lower bound of CMIP6 projected warming but substantially reduces the upper bound of projected early-, mid- and late-21st century warming under all SSP scenarios.},
author = {Liang, Yongxiao and Gillett, Nathan P. and Monahan, Adam H.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086757},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {e2019GL086757},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086757},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lin2019,
abstract = {With two thirds of the total Indian population employed by the agriculture sector, changes in Indian monsoon precipitation have widespread implications for human welfare. Increased extreme precipitation since 1950 has been widely reported for central India. Major studies have relied upon the gridded daily precipitation observations provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which assimilate observations from a variable network of weather stations. Replicating the IMD's interpolation method on satellite-based precipitation observations, however, indicates that temporal changes in the observing weather station network introduce a jump in the record toward more extreme rainfall after 1975. Trends evaluated across this jump are suspect, and trends evaluated subsequent to it are insignificant (p {\textgreater} 0.1). This positive bias may also mask declines in average monsoon rainfall. Greater accuracy in these trends may resolve distinctions between climate model simulations of future changes. Access to the underlying data from IMD rain-gauges would facilitate improved rainfall reconstruction.},
author = {Lin, Marena and Huybers, Peter},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079709},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {South Asian monsoon,climate change,extreme events,floods,precipitation observations,trends},
number = {3},
pages = {1681--1689},
title = {{If Rain Falls in India and No One Reports It, Are Historical Trends in Monsoon Extremes Biased?}},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{Lindstrom2012,
address = {Paris, France},
author = {Lindstrom, Eric and Gunn, John and Fischer, Albert and McCurdy, Andrea and Glover, L K},
doi = {10.5270/OceanObs09-FOO},
pages = {28},
publisher = {United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)},
series = {IOC/INF-1284 rev.2},
title = {{A Framework for Ocean Observing}},
url = {https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000211260},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Lisiecki2005,
author = {Lisiecki, Lorraine E. and Raymo, Maureen E.},
doi = {10.1029/2004PA001071},
issn = {08838305},
journal = {Paleoceanography},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {PA1003},
title = {{A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic $\delta$18O records}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2004PA001071},
volume = {20},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Liu2015c,
author = {Liu, Yi Y and van Dijk, Albert I J M and de Jeu, Richard A M and Canadell, Josep G and McCabe, Matthew F and Evans, Jason P and Wang, Guojie},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2581},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
pages = {470--474},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Recent reversal in loss of global terrestrial biomass}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2581 http://10.0.4.14/nclimate2581 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2581{\#}supplementary-information},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Liu2021,
abstract = {Due to concerns about radio frequency interference from emerging telecommunications technology, there have been intensive discussions on the changes to the international Radio Regula-tions around 24 GHz at the recent World Radiocommunication Conference in 2019. Although the sensitivity to total precipitable water (TPW) at 23.8 GHz over land is small, and in some cases close to zero, state-of-the-art retrieval systems with no dependence on real-time ancillary data (e.g., numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts), such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MiRS), have been producing reliable TPW products over both ocean and land, which implies that the microwave channel at 23.8 GHz is providing valuable information on TPW over land as well as over ocean. The contradiction between the zero or near-zero sensitivity and practical performance over land raises questions for the remote sensing community and public users of such data. In this study, we examine the underlying physics and include mathematical explanations, which address and clarify the apparent contradiction. The channel at 23.8 GHz is a direct measurement and indispensable for its combined use with microwave temperature and moisture sounding channels.},
author = {Liu, Quanhua Mark and Cao, Changyong and Grassotti, Christopher and Lee, Yong Keun},
doi = {10.3390/rs13030489},
issn = {20724292},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
keywords = {5G wireless business,Passive microwave sensors,Radio frequency interference,Total precipitable water},
number = {3},
pages = {1--10},
title = {{How can microwave observations at 23.8 GHz help in acquiring water vapor in the atmosphere over land?}},
volume = {13},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Lloyd2018,
author = {Lloyd, Elisabeth A. and Oreskes, Naomi},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000665},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {311--325},
title = {{Climate Change Attribution: When Is It Appropriate to Accept New Methods?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017EF000665},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Loarie2009,
author = {Loarie, Scott R. and Duffy, Philip B. and Hamilton, Healy and Asner, Gregory P. and Field, Christopher B. and Ackerly, David D.},
doi = {10.1038/nature08649},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {dec},
number = {7276},
pages = {1052--1055},
title = {{The velocity of climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature08649},
volume = {462},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Lomborg2016,
annote = {Times cited: 13},
author = {Lomborg, Bjorn},
doi = {10.1111/1758-5899.12295},
issn = {17585880},
journal = {Global Policy},
keywords = {NDCs},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {109--118},
publisher = {Wiley},
title = {{Impact of Current Climate Proposals}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12295 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/1758-5899.12295},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lorenz2018,
author = {Lorenz, Ruth and Herger, Nadja and Sedl{\'{a}}{\v{c}}ek, Jan and Eyring, Veronika and Fischer, Erich M. and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1029/2017JD027992},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {4509--4526},
title = {{Prospects and Caveats of Weighting Climate Models for Summer Maximum Temperature Projections Over North America}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2017JD027992},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lougheed2018,
abstract = {Abstract. Late-glacial palaeoclimate reconstructions from deep-sea sediment archives provide valuable insight into past rapid changes in ocean chemistry. Unfortunately, only a small proportion of the ocean floor with sufficiently high sediment accumulation rate (SAR) is suitable for such reconstructions using the long-standing age–depth model approach. We employ ultra-small radiocarbon (14C) dating on single microscopic foraminifera to demonstrate that the long-standing age–depth model method conceals large age uncertainties caused by post-depositional sediment mixing, meaning that existing studies may underestimate total geochronological error. We find that the age–depth distribution of our 14C-dated single foraminifera is in good agreement with existing bioturbation models only after one takes the possibility of Zoophycos burrowing into account. To overcome the problems associated with the age–depth paradigm, we use the first ever dual 14C and stable isotope ($\delta$18O and $\delta$13C) analysis on single microscopic foraminifera to produce a palaeoclimate time series independent of the age–depth paradigm. This new state of the art essentially decouples single foraminifera from the age–depth paradigm to provide multiple floating, temporal snapshots of ocean chemistry, thus allowing for the successful extraction of temporally accurate palaeoclimate data from low-SAR deep-sea archives. This new method can address large geographical gaps in late-glacial benthic palaeoceanographic reconstructions by opening up vast areas of previously disregarded, low-SAR deep-sea archives to research, which will lead to an improved understanding of the global interaction between oceans and climate.},
author = {Lougheed, Bryan C. and Metcalfe, Brett and Ninnemann, Ulysses S. and Wacker, Lukas},
doi = {10.5194/cp-14-515-2018},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {515--526},
title = {{Moving beyond the age–depth model paradigm in deep-sea palaeoclimate archives: dual radiocarbon and stable isotope analysis on single foraminifera}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/14/515/2018/},
volume = {14},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Louie2003,
author = {Louie, Kin-Sheun and Liu, Kam-Biu},
doi = {10.1006/jhge.2001.0453},
journal = {Journal of Historical Geography},
number = {3},
pages = {299--316},
title = {{Earliest historical records of typhoons in China}},
volume = {29},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Lozier2019,
abstract = {The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has a strong influence on climate, so it is important to understand how global warming may affect it. Lozier et al. report initial results from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) (see the Perspective by Rhein). OSNAP has been measuring the flux of water transported by overturning in the high latitudes in the North Atlantic. The measurements reveal the strong variability of transport in the region and show that deep water formation in the Labrador Sea may not, as previously believed, be the major determinant of AMOC variability.Science, this issue p. 516; see also p. 456To provide an observational basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections of a slowing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the 21st century, the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) observing system was launched in the summer of 2014. The first 21-month record reveals a highly variable overturning circulation responsible for the majority of the heat and freshwater transport across the OSNAP line. In a departure from the prevailing view that changes in deep water formation in the Labrador Sea dominate MOC variability, these results suggest that the conversion of warm, salty, shallow Atlantic waters into colder, fresher, deep waters that move southward in the Irminger and Iceland basins is largely responsible for overturning and its variability in the subpolar basin.},
author = {Lozier, M S and Li, F and Bacon, S and Bahr, F and Bower, A S and Cunningham, S A and de Jong, M F and de Steur, L and DeYoung, B and Fischer, J and Gary, S F and Greenan, B J W and Holliday, N P and Houk, A and Houpert, L and Inall, M E and Johns, W E and Johnson, H L and Johnson, C and Karstensen, J and Koman, G and {Le Bras}, I A and Lin, X and Mackay, N and Marshall, D P and Mercier, H and Oltmanns, M and Pickart, R S and Ramsey, A L and Rayner, D and Straneo, F and Thierry, V and Torres, D J and Williams, R G and Wilson, C and Yang, J and Yashayaev, I and Zhao, J},
doi = {10.1126/science.aau6592},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
number = {6426},
pages = {516--521},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic}},
url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6426/516},
volume = {363},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Luderer2018,
author = {Luderer, Gunnar and Vrontisi, Zoi and Bertram, Christoph and Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. and Pietzcker, Robert C. and Rogelj, Joeri and {De Boer}, Harmen Sytze and Drouet, Laurent and Emmerling, Johannes and Fricko, Oliver and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Havl{\'{i}}k, Petr and Iyer, Gokul and Keramidas, Kimon and Kitous, Alban and Pehl, Michaja and Krey, Volker and Riahi, Keywan and Saveyn, Bert and Tavoni, Massimo and {Van Vuuren}, Detlef P. and Kriegler, Elmar},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {626--633},
title = {{Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0198-6},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lund2020,
author = {Lund, Marianne T. and Aamaas, Borgar and Stjern, Camilla W. and Klimont, Zbigniew and Berntsen, Terje K. and Samset, Bj{\o}rn H.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-11-977-2020},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {nov},
number = {4},
pages = {977--993},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/977/2020/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lynch-Stieglitz2017,
author = {Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060415},
issn = {1941-1405},
journal = {Annual Review of Marine Science},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {83--104},
title = {{The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change}},
url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060415},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{ISI:000344598400025,
abstract = {Determining the time when the climate change signal from increasing greenhouse gases exceeds and thus emerges from natural climate variability (referred to as the time of emergence, ToE) is an important climate change issue(1). Previous ToE studies were mainly focused on atmospheric variables(2-7). Here, based on three regional sea-level projection products available to 2100, which have increasing complexity in terms of included processes, we estimate the ToE for sea-level changes relative to the reference period 1986-2005. The dynamic sea level derived from ocean density and circulation changes alone leads to emergence over only limited regions. By adding the global-ocean thermal expansion effect, 50{\%} of the ocean area will show emergence with rising sea level by the early-to-middle 2040s. Including additional contributions from land ice mass loss, land water storage change and glacial isostatic adjustment generally enhances the signal of regional sea-level rise (except in some regions with decreasing total sea levels), which leads to emergence over more than 50{\%} of the ocean area by 2020. The ToE for total sea level is substantially earlier than that for surface air temperature and exhibits little dependence on the emission scenarios, which means that our society will face detectable sea-level change and its potential impacts earlier than surface air warming.},
author = {Lyu, Kewei and Zhang, Xuebin and Church, John A and Slangen, Aim{\'{e}}e B A and Hu, Jianyu},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2397},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1006--1010},
title = {{Time of emergence for regional sea-level change}},
type = {Article},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2397},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Ma2019,
author = {Ma, Lei and Hurtt, George C. and Chini, Louise P. and Sahajpal, Ritvik and Pongratz, Julia and Frolking, Steve and Stehfest, Elke and {Klein Goldewijk}, Kees and O'Leary, Donal and Doelman, Jonathan C.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-3203-2020},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {3203--3220},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Global rules for translating land-use change (LUH2) to land-cover change for CMIP6 using GLM2}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3203/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ma2014,
author = {Ma, H.-Y. and Xie, S. and Klein, S. A. and Williams, K. D. and Boyle, J. S. and Bony, S. and Douville, H. and Fermepin, S. and Medeiros, B. and Tyteca, S. and Watanabe, M. and Williamson, D.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00474.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1781--1798},
title = {{On the Correspondence between Mean Forecast Errors and Climate Errors in CMIP5 Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00474.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{MacDougall2020,
abstract = {Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is −0.36 to 0.29 ∘C, with a model ensemble mean of −0.07 ∘C, median of −0.05 ∘C, and standard deviation of 0.19 ∘C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.},
author = {MacDougall, Andrew H. and Fr{\"{o}}licher, Thomas L. and Jones, Chris D. and Rogelj, Joeri and Matthews, H. Damon and Zickfeld, Kirsten and Arora, Vivek K. and Barrett, Noah J. and Brovkin, Victor and Burger, Friedrich A. and Eby, Micheal and Eliseev, Alexey V. and Hajima, Tomohiro and Holden, Philip B. and Jeltsch-Th{\"{o}}mmes, Aurich and Koven, Charles and Mengis, Nadine and Menviel, Laurie and Michou, Martine and Mokhov, Igor I. and Oka, Akira and Schwinger, J{\"{o}}rg and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland and Shaffer, Gary and Sokolov, Andrei and Tachiiri, Kaoru and Tjiputra, Jerry and Wiltshire, Andrew and Ziehn, Tilo},
doi = {10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020},
issn = {1726-4189},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {2987--3016},
title = {{Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2}},
url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/2020/},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Mach2017,
author = {Mach, Katharine J. and Mastrandrea, Michael D. and Freeman, Patrick T. and Field, Christopher B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.005},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {may},
pages = {1--14},
title = {{Unleashing expert judgment in assessment}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S095937801730211X},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Madden1980,
abstract = {The observed interannual variability of temperature at 60°N has been investigated. The results indicate that the surface warming due to increased carbon dioxide which is predicted by three-dimensional climate models should be detectable now. It is not, possibly because the predicted warming is being delayed more than a decade by ocean thermal inertia, or because there is a compensating cooling due to other factors. Further consideration of the uncertainties in model predictions and of the likely delays introduced by ocean thermal inertia extends the range of time for the detection of warming, if it occurs, to the year 2000. The effects of increasing carbon dioxide should be looked for in several variables simultaneously in order to minimize the ambiguities that could result from unrecognized compensating cooling. Copyright {\textcopyright} 1980 AAAS.},
author = {Madden, Roland A. and Ramanathan, V.},
doi = {10.1126/science.209.4458.763},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {4458},
pages = {763--768},
title = {{Detecting Climate Change due to Increasing Carbon Dioxide}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.209.4458.763},
volume = {209},
year = {1980}
}
@article{Maher2015,
abstract = {The effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions on Indo-Pacific tropical variability are investigated using 122 historical ensemble members from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere is found to increase the likelihood of a model climatic response that projects onto both the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Large eruptions are associated with co-occurring El Ni{\~{n}}o and positive IOD events in the ensemble means that peak 6-12 months after the volcanic forcing peaks, marking a significant increase in the likelihood of each event occurring in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) spring/summer posteruption. There is also an ensemble mean La Ni{\~{n}}a-like response in the third SH summer posteruption, which coincides with a significant increase in the likelihood of a La Ni{\~{n}}a occurring. Taken together with the initial cooling, this La Ni{\~{n}}a-like response may increase the persistence of the cool global average surface temperature anomaly after an eruption.},
author = {Maher, Nicola and McGregor, Shayne and England, Matthew H. and Gupta, Alexander Sen},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064751},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,ENSO,IOD,Pacific-Indian variability,surface air temperature,volcanic climate forcing},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {6024--6033},
title = {{Effects of volcanism on tropical variability}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL064751},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Maher2019 doi:10.1029/2019MS001639,
abstract = {Abstract The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) is the largest ensemble of a single comprehensive climate model currently available, with 100 members for the historical simulations (1850–2005) and four forcing scenarios. It is currently the only large ensemble available that includes scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and a 1{\%} CO2 scenario. These advantages make MPI-GE a powerful tool. We present an overview of MPI-GE, its components, and detail the experiments completed. We demonstrate how to separate the forced response from internal variability in a large ensemble. This separation allows the quantification of both the forced signal under climate change and the internal variability to unprecedented precision. We then demonstrate multiple ways to evaluate MPI-GE and put observations in the context of a large ensemble, including a novel approach for comparing model internal variability with estimated observed variability. Finally, we present four novel analyses, which can only be completed using a large ensemble. First, we address whether temperature and precipitation have a pathway dependence using the forcing scenarios. Second, the forced signal of the highly noisy atmospheric circulation is computed, and different drivers are identified to be important for the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Third, we use the ensemble dimension to investigate the time dependency of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability changes under global warming. Last, sea level pressure is used as an example to demonstrate how MPI-GE can be utilized to estimate the ensemble size needed for a given scientific problem and provide insights for future ensemble projects.},
author = {Maher, Nicola and Milinski, Sebastian and Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura and Botzet, Michael and Dobrynin, Mikhail and Kornblueh, Luis and Kr{\"{o}}ger, J{\"{u}}rgen and Takano, Yohei and Ghosh, Rohit and Hedemann, Christopher and Li, Chao and Li, Hongmei and Manzini, Elisa and Notz, Dirk and Putrasahan, Dian and Boysen, Lena and Claussen, Martin and Ilyina, Tatiana and Olonscheck, Dirk and Raddatz, Thomas and Stevens, Bjorn and Marotzke, Jochem},
doi = {10.1029/2019MS001639},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {MPI-GE,forced response,internal variability,large ensemble},
number = {7},
pages = {2050--2069},
title = {{The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001639},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Mahlstein2011,
abstract = {The Earth is warming on average, and most of the global warming of the past half-century can very likely be attributed to human influence. But the climate in particular locations is much more variable, raising the question of where and when local changes could become perceptible enough to be obvious to people in the form of local warming that exceeds interannual variability; indeed only a few studies have addressed the significance of local signals relative to variability. It is well known that the largest total warming is expected to occur in high latitudes, but high latitudes are also subject to the largest variability, delaying the emergence of significant changes there. Here we show that due to the small temperature variability from one year to another, the earliest emergence of significant warming occurs in the summer season in low latitude countries (≈25°S–25°N). We also show that a local warming signal that exceeds past variability is emerging at present, or will likely emerge in the next two decades, in many tropical countries. Further, for most countries worldwide, a mean global warming of 1 °C is sufficient for a significant temperature change, which},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Mahlstein, I. and Knutti, R. and Solomon, S. and Portmann, R. W.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034009},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {0165-0009},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {local detection},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {034009},
pmid = {10102984},
title = {{Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/6/i=3/a=034009?key=crossref.4f6f298120b5f9acd1127c399bd39515},
volume = {6},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Mahlstein2012,
author = {Mahlstein, Irina and Hegerl, Gabriele and Solomon, Susan},
doi = {10.1029/2012GL053952},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {L21711},
title = {{Emerging local warming signals in observational data}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012GL053952},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Mahony2014,
author = {Mahony, Martin},
doi = {10.1177/0306312713501407},
issn = {0306-3127},
journal = {Social Studies of Science},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {109--133},
title = {{The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0306312713501407},
volume = {44},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Mahony2015,
author = {Mahony, Martin},
doi = {10.1111/tran.12064},
issn = {00202754},
journal = {Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {153--167},
title = {{Climate change and the geographies of objectivity: the case of the IPCC's burning embers diagram}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/tran.12064},
volume = {40},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Maibach2011,
author = {Maibach, Edward W. and Leiserowitz, Anthony and Roser-Renouf, Connie and Mertz, C. K.},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0017571},
editor = {Moen, Jon},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {e17571},
title = {{Identifying Like-Minded Audiences for Global Warming Public Engagement Campaigns: An Audience Segmentation Analysis and Tool Development}},
url = {https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017571},
volume = {6},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Makondo2018,
author = {Makondo, Cuthbert Casey and Thomas, David S.G.},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.06.014},
issn = {14629011},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Policy},
month = {oct},
pages = {83--91},
title = {{Climate change adaptation: Linking indigenous knowledge with western science for effective adaptation}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901118300418},
volume = {88},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Manabe1975,
author = {Manabe, Syukuro and Bryan, Kirk and Spelman, Michael J},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0485(1975)005<0003:AGOACM>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0022-3670},
journal = {Journal of Physical Oceanography},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {3--29},
title = {{A Global Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model. Part I. The Atmospheric Circulation}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0485{\%}281975{\%}29005{\%}3C0003{\%}3AAGOACM{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {5},
year = {1975}
}
@article{Manabe1961,
author = {Manabe, Syukuro and M{\"{o}}ller, Fritz},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(1961)089<0503:OTREAH>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0027-0644},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {503--532},
title = {{On the Radiative Equilibrium and Heat Balance of the Atmosphere}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493{\%}281961{\%}29089{\%}3C0503{\%}3AOTREAH{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {89},
year = {1961}
}
@article{Manabe1993a,
abstract = {SEVERAL studies have addressed the likely effects of CO2-induced climate change over the coming decades1-10, but the longer-term effects have received less attention. Yet these effects could be very significant, as persistent increases in global mean temperatures may ultimately influence the large-scale processes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that are thought to play a central part in determining global climate. The thermohaline circulation is one such process - Broecker has argued11 that it may have undergone abrupt changes in response to rising temperatures and ice-sheet melting at the end of the last glacial period. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model to study the evolution of the world's climate over the next few centuries, driven by doubling and quadrupling of the concentration of atmospheric CO2. We find that the global mean surface air temperature increases by about 3.5 and 7 °C, respectively, over 500 years, and that sea-level rise owing to thermal expansion alone is about 1 and 2 m respectively (ice-sheet melting could make these values much larger). The thermal and dynamical structure of the oceans changes markedly in the quadrupled-CO2 climate - in particular, the ocean settles into a new stable state in which the thermohaline circulation has ceased entirely and the thermocline deepens substantially. These changes prevent the ventilation of the deep ocean and could have a profound impact on the carbon cycle and biogeochemistry of the coupled system. {\textcopyright} 1993 Nature Publishing Group.},
author = {Manabe, Syukuro and Stouffer, Ronald J.},
doi = {10.1038/364215a0},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jul},
number = {6434},
pages = {215--218},
title = {{Century-scale effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the ocean–atmosphere system}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/364215a0},
volume = {364},
year = {1993}
}
@article{Manabe1988,
abstract = {[Two stable equilibria have been obtained from a global model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of NOAA. The model used for this study consists of general circulation models of the atmosphere and the world oceans and a simple model of land surface. Starting from two different initial conditions, "asynchronous" time integrations of the coupled model, under identical boundary conditions, lead to two stable equilibria. In one equilibrium, the North Atlantic Ocean has a vigorous thermohaline circulation and relatively saline and warm surface water. In the other equilibrium, there is no thermohaline circulation, and an intense halocline exists in the surface layer at high latitudes. In both integrations, the air-sea exchange of water is adjusted to remove a systematic bias of the model that surpresses the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. Nevertheless, these results raise the intriguing possibility that the coupled system may have at least two equilibria. They also suggest that the thermohaline overturning in the North Atlantic is mainly responsible for making the surface salinity of the northern North Atlantic higher than that of the northern North Pacific. Finally, a discussion is made on the paleoclimatic implications of these results for the large and abrupt transition between the Aller{\"{o}}d and Younger Dryas events which occurred about 11 000 years ago.]},
author = {Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001<0841:TSEOAC>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {08948755, 15200442},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {841--866},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Two Stable Equilibria of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model}},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/44363910 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442{\%}281988{\%}29001{\%}3C0841{\%}3ATSEOAC{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {1},
year = {1988}
}
@article{Manabe1967a,
author = {Manabe, Syukuro and Wetherald, Richard T.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0469(1967)024<0241:TEOTAW>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0022-4928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {241--259},
title = {{Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469{\%}281967{\%}29024{\%}3C0241{\%}3ATEOTAW{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {24},
year = {1967}
}
@incollection{Manabe1970,
address = {Dordrecht, The Netherlands},
author = {Manabe, Syukuro},
booktitle = {Global Effects of Environmental Pollution: A Symposium Organized by the American Association for the Advancement of Science Held in Dallas, Texas, December 1968},
doi = {10.1007/978-94-010-3290-2_4},
editor = {Singer, S Fred},
pages = {25--29},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{The Dependence of Atmospheric Temperature on the Concentration of Carbon Dioxide}},
year = {1970}
}
@article{Mann2017,
author = {Mann, Michael E. and Miller, Sonya K. and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Steinman, Byron A. and Tingley, Martin},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074056},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {7936--7944},
title = {{Record temperature streak bears anthropogenic fingerprint}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL074056},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Maraun2013,
author = {Maraun, Douglas},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014004},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {014004},
title = {{When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge?}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014004},
volume = {8},
year = {2013}
}
@book{Maraun2018,
address = {Cambridge, UK},
author = {Maraun, Douglas and Widmann, Martin},
doi = {10.1017/9781107588783},
pages = {347},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Marcott2014,
author = {Marcott, Shaun A. and Bauska, Thomas K. and Buizert, Christo and Steig, Eric J. and Rosen, Julia L. and Cuffey, Kurt M. and Fudge, T. J. and Severinghaus, Jeffery P. and Ahn, Jinho and Kalk, Michael L. and McConnell, Joseph R. and Sowers, Todd and Taylor, Kendrick C. and White, James W. C. and Brook, Edward J.},
doi = {10.1038/nature13799},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {oct},
number = {7524},
pages = {616--619},
title = {{Centennial-scale changes in the global carbon cycle during the last deglaciation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature13799},
volume = {514},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Marjanac2017,
abstract = {Developments in attribution science are improving our ability to detect human influence on extreme weather events. By implication, the legal duties of government, business and others to manage foreseeable harms are broadening, and may lead to more climate change litigation.},
author = {Marjanac, Sophie and Patton, Lindene and Thornton, James},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo3019},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {616--619},
title = {{Acts of God, human influence and litigation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3019 http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3019},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{gmd-13-4159-2020,
abstract = {Climate reanalyses provide a plethora of global atmospheric and surface parameters in a consistent manner over multi-decadal timescales. Hence, they are widely used in many fields, and an in-depth evaluation of the different variables provided by reanalyses is a necessary means to provide feedback on the quality to their users and the operational centres producing these data sets, and to help guide their development. Recently, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) released the new state-of-the-art climate reanalysis ERA5, following up on its popular predecessor ERA-Interim. Different sets of variables from ERA5 were already evaluated in a handful of studies, but so far, the quality of land-surface energy partitioning has not been assessed. Here, we evaluate the surface energy partitioning over land in ERA5 and concentrate on the appraisal of the surface latent heat flux, surface sensible heat flux, and Bowen ratio against different reference data sets and using different modelling tools. Most of our analyses point towards a better quality of surface energy partitioning in ERA5 than in ERA-Interim, which may be attributed to a better representation of land-surface processes in ERA5 and certainly to the better quality of near-surface meteorological variables. One of the key shortcomings of the reanalyses identified in our study is the overestimation of the surface latent heat flux over land, which -although substantially lower than in ERA-Interim -still remains in ERA5. Overall, our results indicate the high quality of the surface turbulent fluxes from ERA5 and the general improvement upon ERA-Interim, thereby endorsing the efforts of ECMWF to improve their climate reanalysis and to provide useful data to many scientific and operational fields.},
author = {Martens, Brecht and Schumacher, Dominik L. and Wouters, Hendrik and Mu{\~{n}}oz-Sabater, Joaqu{\'{i}}n and Verhoest, Niko E.C. and Miralles, Diego G.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-4159-2020},
issn = {19919603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {9},
pages = {4159--4181},
title = {{Evaluating the land-surface energy partitioning in ERA5}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/4159/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Masina2017,
abstract = {A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993--2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state.},
author = {Masina, Simona and Storto, Andrea and Ferry, Nicolas and Valdivieso, Maria and Haines, Keith and Balmaseda, Magdalena and Zuo, Hao and Drevillon, Marie and Parent, Laurent},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2728-5},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {813--841},
title = {{An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2728-5},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Massey2015,
author = {Massey, N. and Jones, R. and Otto, F. E. L. and Aina, T. and Wilson, S. and Murphy, J. M. and Hassell, D. and Yamazaki, Y. H. and Allen, M. R.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2455},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {jul},
number = {690},
pages = {1528--1545},
title = {weather@home-development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2455},
volume = {141},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Masson2011,
author = {Masson, D. and Knutti, R.},
doi = {10.1029/2011GL046864},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {L08703},
title = {{Climate model genealogy}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011GL046864},
volume = {38},
year = {2011}
}
@incollection{Masson-Delmotte2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Masson-Delmotte, V and Schulz, M and Abe-Ouchi, A and Beer, J and Ganopolski, A and {González Rouco}, J F and Jansen, E and Lambeck, K and Luterbacher, J and Naish, T and Osborn, T and Otto-Bliesner, B and Quinn, T and Ramesh, R and Rojas, M and Shao, X and Timmermann, A},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {5},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.013},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {383--464},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Information from Paleoclimate Archives}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Mastrandrea2011b,
author = {Mastrandrea, Michael D. and Mach, Katharine J.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0177-7},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {oct},
number = {4},
pages = {659--673},
title = {{Treatment of uncertainties in IPCC Assessment Reports: past approaches and considerations for the Fifth Assessment Report}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0177-7},
volume = {108},
year = {2011}
}
@techreport{Mastrandrea2010,
author = {Mastrandrea, M D and Field, C B and Stocker, T F and Edenhofer, O and Ebi, K L and Frame, D J and Held, H and Kriegler, E and Mach, K J and Matschoss, P R and Plattner, G.-K. and Yohe, G W and Zwiers, F W},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/08/AR5_Uncertainty_Guidance_Note.pdf},
pages = {7},
publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)},
title = {{Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/08/AR5{\_}Uncertainty{\_}Guidance{\_}Note.pdf},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Mastrandrea2011a;Mastrandrea2011,
abstract = {Evaluation and communication of the relative degree of certainty in assessment findings are key cross-cutting issues for the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A goal for the Fifth Assessment Report, which is currently under development, is the application of a common framework with associated calibrated uncertainty language that can be used to characterize findings of the assessment process. A guidance note for authors of the Fifth Assessment Report has been developed that describes this common approach and language, building upon the guidance employed in past Assessment Reports. Here, we introduce the main features of this guidance note, with a focus on how it has been designed for use by author teams. We also provide perspectives on considerations and challenges relevant to the application of this guidance in the contribution of each Working Group to the Fifth Assessment Report. Despite the wide spectrum of disciplines encompassed by the three Working Groups, we expect that the framework of the new uncertainties guidance will enable consistent communication of the degree of certainty in their policy-relevant assessment findings. {\textcopyright} 2011 The Author(s).},
author = {Mastrandrea, Michael D. and Mach, Katharine J. and Plattner, Gian-Kasper Kasper and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Stocker, Thomas F. and Field, Christopher B. and Ebi, Kristie L. and Matschoss, Patrick R.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0178-6},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {oct},
number = {4},
pages = {675--691},
title = {{The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: A common approach across the working groups}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0178-6},
volume = {108},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Matthes2017,
abstract = {This paper describes the solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights in particular changes with respect to the CMIP5 recommendation. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, i.e., total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and F10.7 cm radio flux, as well as particle forcing, i.e., geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionisation rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing is provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing dataset is provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 Historical Simulation (1850{\&}ndash;2014), for the future (2015{\&}ndash;2300), including an additional extreme Maunder Minimum-like sensitivity scenario, as well as for a constant and a time-varying forcing for the preindustrial control simulation. The paper not only describes the forcing dataset, but also provides detailed recommendations for how to implement the different forcing components in climate models. The TSI and SSI time series are defined as averages of two (semi-) empirical solar irradiance models, namely the NRLTSI2/NRLSSI2 and SATIRE-TS. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar cycle-average is now 1361.0 W/m2. The slight negative trend in TSI during the last three solar cycles in CMIP6 is statistically indistinguishable from available observations and only leads to a small global radiative forcing of {\&}minus;0.04 W/m2. In the 200{\&}ndash;400 nm range, which is also important for ozone photochemistry, CMIP6 shows a larger solar cycle variability contribution to TSI than CMIP5 (50 {\%} as compared to 35 {\%}). The CMIP6 dataset is tested and compared to its CMIP5 predecessor using timeslice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The changes in the background SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, as compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates ({\&}minus;0.35 K/day at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures ({\&}minus;1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere ({\&}minus;3 {\%}), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 {\%} in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K/day at the stratopause), temperatures ({\~{}}1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 {\%} in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset. CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to use SSI, as well as solar-induced ozone signals, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. Monthly mean solar-induced ozone variations will also be incorporated into the CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are encouraged to use the particle forcing which will allow the potential long-term effect of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements of the representation of solar climate variability.},
author = {Matthes, Katja and Funke, Bernd and Andersson, Monika E. and Barnard, Luke and Beer, J{\"{u}}rg and Charbonneau, Paul and Clilverd, Mark A. and {Dudok De Wit}, Thierry and Haberreiter, Margit and Hendry, Aaron and Jackman, Charles H. and Kretzschmar, Matthieu and Kruschke, Tim and Kunze, Markus and Langematz, Ulrike and Marsh, Daniel R. and Maycock, Amanda C. and Misios, Stergios and Rodger, Craig J. and Scaife, Adam A. and Sepp{\"{a}}l{\"{a}}, Annika and Shangguan, Ming and Sinnhuber, Miriam and Tourpali, Kleareti and Usoskin, Ilya and {Van De Kamp}, Max and Verronen, Pekka T. and Versick, Stefan},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017},
issn = {19919603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {2247--2302},
title = {{Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)}},
url = {http://editor.copernicus.org/index.php/gmd-2016-91-RC1.pdf?{\_}mdl=msover{\_}md{\&}{\_}jrl=365{\&}{\_}lcm=oc108lcm109w{\&}{\_}acm=get{\_}comm{\_}file{\&}{\_}ms=50916{\&}c=108835{\&}salt=1272410751474882240 http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/gmd-2016-91/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Matthews2016,
abstract = {Contributions to historical climate change have varied substantially among nations. These differences reflect underlying inequalities in wealth and development, and pose a fundamental challenge to the implementation of a globally equitable climate mitigation strategy. This Letter presents a new way to quantify historical inequalities among nations using carbon and climate debts, defined as the amount by which national climate contributions have exceeded a hypothetical equal per-capita share over time. Considering only national CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, accumulated carbon debts across all nations from 1990 to 2013 total 250 billion tonnes of CO2, representing 40{\%} of cumulative world emissions since 1990. Expanding this to reflect the temperature response to a range of emissions, historical climate debts accrued between 1990 and 2010 total 0.11 °C, close to a third of observed warming over that period. Large fractions of this debt are carried by industrialized countries, but also by countries with high levels of deforestation and agriculture. These calculations could contribute to discussions of climate responsibility by providing a tangible way to quantify historical inequalities, which could then inform the funding of mitigation, adaptation and the costs of loss and damages in those countries that have contributed less to historical warming.},
author = {Matthews, H. Damon},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2774},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {1},
pages = {60--64},
title = {{Quantifying historical carbon and climate debts among nations}},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2018MS001400,
abstract = {A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM 1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation- and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multi-layer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model, and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyano-bacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions, and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low-level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over pre-industrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly non-linear global mean response to increasing CO2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two-layer model.},
author = {Mauritsen, Thorsten and Bader, J{\"{u}}rgen and Becker, Tobias and Behrens, J{\"{o}}rg and Bittner, Matthias and Brokopf, Renate and Brovkin, Victor and Claussen, Martin and Crueger, Traute and Esch, Monika and Fast, Irina and Fiedler, Stephanie and Fl{\"{a}}schner, Dagmar and Gayler, Veronika and Giorgetta, Marco and Goll, Daniel S and Haak, Helmuth and Hagemann, Stefan and Hedemann, Christopher and Hohenegger, Cathy and Ilyina, Tatiana and Jahns, Thomas and Jimen{\'{e}}z‐de‐la‐Cuesta, Diego and Jungclaus, Johann and Kleinen, Thomas and Kloster, Silvia and Kracher, Daniela and Kinne, Stefan and Kleberg, Deike and Lasslop, Gitta and Kornblueh, Luis and Marotzke, Jochem and Matei, Daniela and Meraner, Katharina and Mikolajewicz, Uwe and Modali, Kameswarrao and M{\"{o}}bis, Benjamin and M{\"{u}}ller, Wolfgang A and Nabel, Julia E M S and Nam, Christine C W and Notz, Dirk and Nyawira, Sarah-Sylvia and Paulsen, Hanna and Peters, Karsten and Pincus, Robert and Pohlmann, Holger and Pongratz, Julia and Popp, Max and Raddatz, Thomas J{\"{u}}rgen and Rast, Sebastian and Redler, Rene and Reick, Christian H and Rohrschneider, Tim and Schemann, Vera and Schmidt, Hauke and Schnur, Reiner and Schulzweida, Uwe and Six, Katharina D and Stein, Lukas and Stemmler, Irene and Stevens, Bjorn and Storch, Jin‐Song and Tian, Fangxing and Voigt, Aiko and Vrese, Philipp and Wieners, Karl-Hermann and Wilkenskjeld, Stiig and Winkler, Alexander and Roeckner, Erich},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001400},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {Climate sensitivity,Coupled climate model,Model development},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {998--1038},
title = {{Developments in the MPI‐M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI‐ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018MS001400 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018MS001400},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Mauritsen2012,
abstract = {During a development stage global climate models have their properties adjusted or tuned in various ways to best match the known state of the Earth's climate system. These desired properties are observables, such as the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere, the global mean temperature, sea ice, clouds and wind fields. The tuning is typically performed by adjusting uncertain, or even non-observable, parameters related to processes not explicitly represented at the model grid resolution. The practice of climate model tuning has seen an increasing level of attention because key model properties, such as climate sensitivity, have been shown to depend on frequently used tuning parameters. Here we provide insights into how climate model tuning is practically done in the case of closing the radiation balance and adjusting the global mean temperature for the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPIESM). We demonstrate that considerable ambiguity exists in the choice of parameters, and present and compare three alternatively tuned, yet plausible configurations of the climate model. The impacts of parameter tuning on climate sensitivity was less than anticipated. {\textcopyright} 2012. American Geophysical Union.},
author = {Mauritsen, Thorsten and Stevens, Bjorn and Roeckner, Erich and Crueger, Traute and Esch, Monika and Giorgetta, Marco and Haak, Helmuth and Jungclaus, Johann and Klocke, Daniel and Matei, Daniela and Mikolajewicz, Uwe and Notz, Dirk and Pincus, Robert and Schmidt, Hauke and Tomassini, Lorenzo},
doi = {10.1029/2012MS000154},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {M00A01},
title = {{Tuning the climate of a global model}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012MS000154},
volume = {4},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Mauritsen2020,
abstract = {Abstract A climate model's ability to reproduce observed historical warming is sometimes viewed as a measure of quality. Yet, for practical reasons it cannot be considered a purely empirical result of the modeling efforts because the desired result is known in advance and so is a potential target of tuning. Here we report how the latest edition of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Models (MPI-ESM1.2) atmospheric component (ECHAM6.3) had its sensitivity systematically tuned in order to improve the modeled match with the instrumental record. In practice, this was done by targeting an equilibrium climate sensitivity of about 3 K, slightly lower than in the previous model generation (MPI-ESM), which warmed more than observed, and in particular by addressing a climate sensitivity of about 7 K in an intermediate version of the model. In the process we identified several controls on cloud feedback, some of which confirm recently proposed hypotheses. We find the model exhibits excellent fidelity with the observed centennial global warming. We further find that an alternative approach with high climate sensitivity compensated by strong aerosol cooling instead would yield colder than observed results in the second half of the twentieth century.},
annote = {e2019MS002037 10.1029/2019MS002037},
author = {Mauritsen, Thorsten and Roeckner, Erich},
doi = {10.1029/2019MS002037},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {Climate,Modeling,Tuning},
number = {5},
pages = {e2019MS002037},
title = {{Tuning the MPI-ESM1.2 Global Climate Model to Improve the Match With Instrumental Record Warming by Lowering Its Climate Sensitivity}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS002037},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@book{Maury1860,
address = {New York, NY, USA},
author = {Maury, Matthew Fontaine},
keywords = {Ocean},
pages = {474},
publisher = {Harper {\&} Brothers Publishers},
title = {{The Physical Geography of the Sea, and its Meteorology}},
year = {1860}
}
@book{Maury1855,
address = {New York, NY, USA},
annote = {Gc11 .m445},
author = {Maury, Matthew Fontaine},
keywords = {Marine meteorology,Oceanography},
pages = {274},
publisher = {Harper {\&} Brothers Publishers},
title = {{The Physical Geography of the Sea}},
year = {1855}
}
@book{Maury1849,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Maury, Matthew Fontaine},
keywords = {Marine meteorology Atlantic Ocean Maps,Ocean currents Atlantic Ocean Maps,Oceanography Atlantic Ocean Charts,Winds Atlantic Ocean Maps,diagrams,etc},
pages = {31 maps},
publisher = {National Observatory},
title = {{Wind and Current Charts of the North and South Atlantic}},
year = {1849}
}
@article{Maycock2018,
author = {Maycock, Amanda C. and Randel, William J. and Steiner, Andrea K. and Karpechko, Alexey Yu and Christy, John and Saunders, Roger and Thompson, David W. J. and Zou, Cheng-Zhi and Chrysanthou, Andreas and {Luke Abraham}, N. and Akiyoshi, Hideharu and Archibald, Alex T. and Butchart, Neal and Chipperfield, Martyn and Dameris, Martin and Deushi, Makoto and Dhomse, Sandip and {Di Genova}, Glauco and J{\"{o}}ckel, Patrick and Kinnison, Douglas E. and Kirner, Oliver and Ladst{\"{a}}dter, Florian and Michou, Martine and Morgenstern, Olaf and O'Connor, Fiona and Oman, Luke and Pitari, Giovanni and Plummer, David A. and Revell, Laura E. and Rozanov, Eugene and Stenke, Andrea and Visioni, Daniele and Yamashita, Yousuke and Zeng, Guang},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078035},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {9919--9933},
title = {{Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL078035},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Maycock2015,
abstract = {It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme “Maunder Minimum-like” grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12{\%} compared to a reference Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause ({\~{}}1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.2 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small ({\~{}}-0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern Hemisphere wintertime, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to {\~{}}3-4 m s-1, with the largest changes occurring in January-February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian Low at the surface and an increase in blocking over Northern Europe and the North Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200-320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.},
author = {Maycock, A. C. and Ineson, S. and Gray, L. J. and Scaife, A. A. and Anstey, J. A. and Lockwood, M. and Butchart, N. and Hardiman, S. C. and Mitchell, D. M. and Osprey, S. M.},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD022022},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {grand solar minimum,solar influences on climate,stratosphere‐troposphere coupling},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {9043--9058},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014JD022022},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{hess-21-3879-2017,
author = {McCabe, M F and Rodell, M and Alsdorf, D E and Miralles, D G and Uijlenhoet, R and Wagner, W and Lucieer, A and Houborg, R and Verhoest, N E C and Franz, T E and Shi, J and Gao, H and Wood, E F},
doi = {10.5194/hess-21-3879-2017},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {7},
pages = {3879--3914},
title = {{The future of Earth observation in hydrology}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/3879/2017/},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mccarthy2019,
abstract = {Key Points The AMOC is a system of ocean currents that move heat and carbon around the planet and is predicted to decline in the future The AMOC has been directly measured since the 2000s, but we now have observation systems in place that can verify a future decline We look at how these systems might develop in the future and consider how they might fit in an optimized Atlantic observing system},
annote = {e2019RG000654 2019RG000654},
author = {McCarthy, G D and Brown, P J and Flagg, C N and Goni, G and Houpert, L and Hughes, C W and Hummels, R and Inall, M and Jochumsen, K and Larsen, K M H and Lherminier, P and Meinen, C S and Moat, B I and Rayner, D and Rhein, M and Roessler, A and Schmid, C and Smeed, D A},
doi = {10.1029/2019RG000654},
issn = {8755-1209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {AMOC,Ocean Circulation,Ocean Observing},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {e2019RG000654},
title = {{Sustainable Observations of the AMOC: Methodology and Technology}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019RG000654 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019RG000654},
volume = {58},
year = {2020}
}
@article{cp-16-1599-2020,
author = {McClymont, E L and Ford, H L and Ho, S L and Tindall, J C and Haywood, A M and Alonso-Garcia, M and Bailey, I and Berke, M A and Littler, K and Patterson, M O and Petrick, B and Peterse, F and Ravelo, A C and Risebrobakken, B and {De Schepper}, S and Swann, G E A and Thirumalai, K and Tierney, J E and van der Weijst, C and White, S and Abe-Ouchi, A and Baatsen, M L J and Brady, E C and Chan, W.-L. and Chandan, D and Feng, R and Guo, C and von der Heydt, A S and Hunter, S and Li, X and Lohmann, G and Nisancioglu, K H and Otto-Bliesner, B L and Peltier, W R and Stepanek, C and Zhang, Z},
doi = {10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {4},
pages = {1599--1615},
title = {{Lessons from a high-CO2 world: an ocean view from {\~{}}3million years ago}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/1599/2020/},
volume = {16},
year = {2020}
}
@article{McCright2016,
author = {McCright, Aaron M. and Marquart-Pyatt, Sandra T. and Shwom, Rachael L. and Brechin, Steven R. and Allen, Summer},
doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2016.08.003},
issn = {22146296},
journal = {Energy Research {\&} Social Science},
month = {nov},
pages = {180--189},
title = {{Ideology, capitalism, and climate: Explaining public views about climate change in the United States}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629616301864},
volume = {21},
year = {2016}
}
@article{McDowell2020,
abstract = {Forest dynamics are the processes of recruitment, growth, death, and turnover of the constituent tree species of the forest community. These processes are driven by disturbances both natural and anthropogenic. McDowell et al. review recent progress in understanding the drivers of forest dynamics and how these are interacting and changing in the context of global climate change. The authors show that shifts in forest dynamics are already occurring, and the emerging pattern is that global forests are tending toward younger stands with faster turnover as old-growth forest with stable dynamics are dwindling.Science, this issue p. eaaz9463BACKGROUNDForest dynamics arise from the interplay of chronic drivers and transient disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality. The resulting trajectories of vegetation development drive the biomass and species composition of terrestrial ecosystems. Forest dynamics are changing because of anthropogenic-driven exacerbation of chronic drivers, such as rising temperature and CO2, and increasing transient disturbances, including wildfire, drought, windthrow, biotic attack, and land-use change. There are widespread observations of increasing tree mortality due to changing climate and land use, as well as observations of growth stimulation of younger forests due to CO2 fertilization. These antagonistic processes are co-occurring globally, leaving the fate of future forests uncertain. We examine the implications of changing forest demography and its drivers for both future forest management and forecasting impacts of global climate forcing.ADVANCESWe reviewed the literature of forest demographic responses to chronic drivers and transient disturbances to generate hypotheses on future trajectories of these factors and their subsequent impacts on vegetation dynamics, with a focus on forested ecosystems. We complemented this review with analyses of global land-use change and disturbance datasets to independently evaluate the implications of changing drivers and disturbances on global-scale tree demographics. Ongoing changes in environmental drivers and disturbance regimes are consistently increasing mortality and forcing forests toward shorter-statured and younger stands, reducing potential carbon storage. Acclimation, adaptation, and migration may partially mitigate these effects. These increased forest impacts are due to natural disturbances (e.g., wildfire, drought, windthrow, insect or pathogen outbreaks) and land-use change, both of which are predicted to increase in magnitude in the future. Atmospherically derived estimates of the terrestrial carbon sink and remote sensing data indicate that tree growth and potentially recruitment may have increased globally in the 20th century, but the growth of this carbon sink has slowed. Variability in growth stimulation due to CO2 fertilization is evident globally, with observations and experiments suggesting that forests benefit from CO2 primarily in early stages of secondary succession. Furthermore, increased tree growth typically requires sufficient water and nutrients to take advantage of rising CO2. Collectively, the evidence reveals that it is highly likely that tree mortality rates will continue to increase, whereas recruitment and growth will respond to changing drivers in a spatially and temporally variable manner. The net impact will be a reduction in forest canopy cover and biomass.OUTLOOKPervasive shifts in forest vegetation dynamics are already occurring and are likely to accelerate under future global changes, with consequences for biodiversity and climate forcing. This conclusion is robust with respect to the abundant literature evidence and our global assessment of historical demographic changes, but it also forms the basis for hypotheses regarding the patterns and processes underlying the shifts in forest dynamics. These hypotheses will be directly testable using emerging terrestrial and satellite-based observation networks. The existing evidence and newly made observations provide a critical test of Earth system models that continue to improve in their ability to simulate forest dynamics and resulting climate forcing. Ultimately, forest managers and natural resource policies must confront the consequences of changing climate and disturbance regimes to ensure sustainable forests and accrue their associated benefits.A conceptual diagram of the components of forest dynamics and the disturbances that drive them.In the far-left panel, a mature ecosystem is responsive primarily to localized mortality, and the primary drivers of demography are chronically changing variables such as CO2, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). In the next panel, the system is disturbed by fire, insect outbreak, or another large-scale perturbation that removes most of the overstory trees, and species adapted to rapid postdisturbance recruitment become established. In the third panel, recruitment and growth dominate demographic processes, with mortality increasing over time as competition leads to self-thinning. In the last panel, a mature ecosystem is dominated by species that have replaced the original community in response to chronic environmental changes, leading to a novel ecosystem.Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recovery are shifting with global changes in climate and land use, altering these dynamics. Changes in environmental drivers, land use, and disturbance regimes are forcing forests toward younger, shorter stands. Rising carbon dioxide, acclimation, adaptation, and migration can influence these impacts. Recent developments in Earth system models support increasingly realistic simulations of vegetation dynamics. In parallel, emerging remote sensing datasets promise qualitatively new and more abundant data on the underlying processes and consequences for vegetation structure. When combined, these advances hold promise for improving the scientific understanding of changes in vegetation demographics and disturbances.},
author = {McDowell, Nate G and Allen, Craig D and Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina and Aukema, Brian H and Bond-Lamberty, Ben and Chini, Louise and Clark, James S and Dietze, Michael and Grossiord, Charlotte and Hanbury-Brown, Adam and Hurtt, George C and Jackson, Robert B and Johnson, Daniel J and Kueppers, Lara and Lichstein, Jeremy W and Ogle, Kiona and Poulter, Benjamin and Pugh, Thomas A M and Seidl, Rupert and Turner, Monica G and Uriarte, Maria and Walker, Anthony P and Xu, Chonggang},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaz9463},
journal = {Science},
month = {may},
number = {6494},
pages = {eaaz9463},
title = {{Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6494/eaaz9463.abstract},
volume = {368},
year = {2020}
}
@article{McGregor2015,
author = {McGregor, Helen V. and Evans, Michael N. and Goosse, Hugues and Leduc, Guillaume and Martrat, Belen and Addison, Jason A. and Mortyn, P. Graham and Oppo, Delia W. and Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig and Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine and Phipps, Steven J. and Selvaraj, Kandasamy and Thirumalai, Kaustubh and Filipsson, Helena L. and Ersek, Vasile},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2510},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {671--677},
title = {{Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2510},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{McGregor2015,
abstract = {An overview is provided of the design of the five currently-available variable-resolution global climate models. For producing high-resolution downscaled climate simulations from coupled global climate models, the models may be used in stand-alone mode, if modestly stretched, or be forced in one of a variety of ways by an intermediate simulation. The various downscaling methodologies are described along with examples of simulations that have been produced by these methods.},
author = {McGregor, John L},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0866-5},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {369--380},
title = {{Recent developments in variable-resolution global climate modelling}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0866-5},
volume = {129},
year = {2015}
}
@article{McKinnon2018,
abstract = {AbstractRecent observed climate trends result from a combination of external radiative forcing and internally generated variability. To better contextualize these trends and forecast future ones, it is necessary to properly model the spatiotemporal properties of the internal variability. Here, a statistical model is developed for terrestrial temperature and precipitation, and global sea level pressure, based upon monthly gridded observational datasets that span 1921?2014. The model is used to generate a synthetic ensemble, each member of which has a unique sequence of internal variability but with statistical properties similar to the observational record. This synthetic ensemble is combined with estimates of the externally forced response from climate models to produce an observational large ensemble (OBS-LE). The 1000 members of the OBS-LE display considerable diversity in their 50-yr regional climate trends, indicative of the importance of internal variability on multidecadal time scales. For example, unforced atmospheric circulation trends associated with the northern annular mode can induce winter temperature trends over Eurasia that are comparable in magnitude to the forced trend over the past 50 years. Similarly, the contribution of internal variability to winter precipitation trends is large across most of the globe, leading to substantial regional uncertainties in the amplitude and, in some cases, the sign of the 50-yr trend. The OBS-LE provides a real-world counterpart to initial-condition model ensembles. The approach could be expanded to using paleo-proxy data to simulate longer-term variability.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1},
author = {McKinnon, Karen A and Deser, Clara},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {17},
pages = {6783--6802},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Internal Variability and Regional Climate Trends in an Observational Large Ensemble}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{McSweeney2015,
abstract = {The unprecedented availability of 6-hourly data from a multi-model GCM ensemble in the CMIP5 data archive presents the new opportunity to dynamically downscale multiple GCMs to develop high-resolution climate projections relevant to detailed assessment of climate vulnerability and climate change impacts. This enables the development of high resolution projections derived from the same set of models that are used to characterise the range of future climate changes at the global and large-scale, and as assessed in the IPCC AR5. However, the technical and human resource required to dynamically-downscale the full CMIP5 ensemble are significant and not necessary if the aim is to develop scenarios covering a representative range of future climate conditions relevant to a climate change risk assessment. This paper illustrates a methodology for selecting from the available CMIP5 models in order to identify a set of 8–10 GCMs for use in regional climate change assessments. The selection focuses on their suitability across multiple regions—Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa. The selection (a) avoids the inclusion of the least realistic models for each region and (b) simultaneously captures the maximum possible range of changes in surface temperature and precipitation for three continental-scale regions. We find that, of the CMIP5 GCMs with 6-hourly fields available, three simulate the key regional aspects of climate sufficiently poorly that we consider the projections from those models ‘implausible' (MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and IPSL-CM5B-LR). From the remaining models, we demonstrate a selection methodology which avoids the poorest models by including them in the set only if their exclusion would significantly reduce the range of projections sampled. The result of this process is a set of models suitable for using to generate downscaled climate change information for a consistent multi-regional assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.},
author = {McSweeney, C. F. and Jones, R. G. and Lee, R. W. and Rowell, D. P.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2418-8},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CMIP5,Ensemble design,RCM,Uncertainty},
month = {jun},
number = {11-12},
pages = {3237--3260},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{Selecting CMIP5 GCMs for downscaling over multiple regions}},
volume = {44},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{Meadows1972,
address = {New York, NY, USA},
author = {Meadows, Donella H and Meadows, Dennis L and Randers, J{\o}rgen and {Behrens III}, William W},
isbn = {0-87663-165-0},
pages = {205},
publisher = {Universe Books},
title = {{The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind}},
year = {1972}
}
@article{Meehl2007,
author = {Meehl, Gerald A. and Covey, Curt and Delworth, Thomas and Latif, Mojib and McAvaney, Bryant and Mitchell, John F. B. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Taylor, Karl E.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1383--1394},
title = {{The WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383},
volume = {88},
year = {2007}
}
@incollection{Meehl2007a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Meehl, G. A. and Stocker, T. F. and Collins, W. D. and Friedlingstein, P. and Gaye, A. T. and Gregory, J. M. and Kitoh, A. and Knutti, R. and Murphy, J. M. and Noda, A. and Raper, S. C. B. and Watterson, I. G. and Weaver, A. J. and Zhao, Z.-C.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1},
editor = {Solomon, S and Qin, D and Manning, M and Chen, Z and Marquis, M and Averyt, K B and Tignor, M and Miller, H L},
isbn = {9780521880091},
pages = {747--846},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Global Climate Projections}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Meehl2000,
author = {Meehl, Gerald A. and Boer, George J. and Covey, Curt and Latif, Mojib and Stouffer, Ronald J.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0313:TCMIPC>2.3.CO;2},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {313--318},
title = {{The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477{\%}282000{\%}29081{\%}3C0313{\%}3ATCMIPC{\%}3E2.3.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {81},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Meehl2014,
abstract = {This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multimodel ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multimodel initialized predictions for near-term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6–9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.},
author = {Meehl, Gerald A. and Goddard, Lisa and Boer, George and Burgman, Robert and Branstator, Grant and Cassou, Christophe and Corti, Susanna and Danabasoglu, Gokhan and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco and Hawkins, Ed and Karspeck, Alicia and Kimoto, Masahide and Kumar, Arun and Matei, Daniela and Mignot, Juliette and Msadek, Rym and Navarra, Antonio and Pohlmann, Holger and Rienecker, Michele and Rosati, Tony and Schneider, Edwin and Smith, Doug and Sutton, Rowan and Teng, Haiyan and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Vecchi, Gabriel and Yeager, Stephen},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1},
issn = {1520-0477},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {243--267},
title = {{Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1},
volume = {95},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Meehl2020,
abstract = {For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2) is 1.8{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C to 5.6{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO2 doubling in a 1{\%} per year CO2 increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C (1.3{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C to 3.0{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.},
author = {Meehl, Gerald A and Senior, Catherine A and Eyring, Veronika and Flato, Gregory and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Stouffer, Ronald J and Taylor, Karl E and Schlund, Manuel},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aba1981},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {jun},
number = {26},
pages = {eaba1981},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models}},
url = {https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/26/eaba1981 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981},
volume = {6},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Meinshausen2017,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} Atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to the last 800{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}000 years. Those elevated GHG concentrations warm the planet and – partially offset by net cooling effects by aerosols – are largely responsible for the observed warming over the past 150 years. An accurate representation of GHG concentrations is hence important to understand and model recent climate change. So far, community efforts to create composite datasets of GHG concentrations with seasonal and latitudinal information have focused on marine boundary layer conditions and recent trends since the 1980s. Here, we provide consolidated datasets of historical atmospheric concentrations (mole fractions) of 43 GHGs to be used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments. The presented datasets are based on AGAGE and NOAA networks, firn and ice core data, and archived air data, and a large set of published studies. In contrast to previous intercomparisons, the new datasets are latitudinally resolved and include seasonality. We focus on the period 1850–2014 for historical CMIP6 runs, but data are also provided for the last 2000 years. We provide consolidated datasets in various spatiotemporal resolutions for carbon dioxide (CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}), methane (CH{\textless}sub{\textgreater}4{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}) and nitrous oxide (N{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}O), as well as 40 other GHGs, namely 17 ozone-depleting substances, 11 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 9 perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF{\textless}sub{\textgreater}6{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}), nitrogen trifluoride (NF{\textless}sub{\textgreater}3{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}) and sulfuryl fluoride (SO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}F{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}). In addition, we provide three equivalence species that aggregate concentrations of GHGs other than CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}, CH{\textless}sub{\textgreater}4{\textless}/sub{\textgreater} and N{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}O, weighted by their radiative forcing efficiencies. For the year 1850, which is used for pre-industrial control runs, we estimate annual global-mean surface concentrations of CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater} at 284.3{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}ppm, CH{\textless}sub{\textgreater}4{\textless}/sub{\textgreater} at 808.2{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}ppb and N{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}O at 273.0{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}ppb. The data are available at {\textless}a href="https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/" target="{\_}blank"{\textgreater}https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/{\textless}/a{\textgreater} and {\textless}a href="http://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/cmip6" target="{\_}blank"{\textgreater}http://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/cmip6{\textless}/a{\textgreater}. While the minimum CMIP6 recommendation is to use the global- and annual-mean time series, modelling groups can also choose our monthly and latitudinally resolved concentrations, which imply a stronger radiative forcing in the Northern Hemisphere winter (due to the latitudinal gradient and seasonality).{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Meinshausen, Malte and Vogel, Elisabeth and Nauels, Alexander and Lorbacher, Katja and Meinshausen, Nicolai and Etheridge, David M. and Fraser, Paul J. and Montzka, Stephen A. and Rayner, Peter J. and Trudinger, Cathy M. and Krummel, Paul B. and Beyerle, Urs and Canadell, Josep G. and Daniel, John S. and Enting, Ian G. and Law, Rachel M. and Lunder, Chris R. and O{\&}apos;Doherty, Simon and Prinn, Ron G. and Reimann, Stefan and Rubino, Mauro and Velders, Guus J. M. and Vollmer, Martin K. and Wang, Ray H. J. and Weiss, Ray},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {2057--2116},
title = {{Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/2057/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Meinshausen2011,
author = {Meinshausen, M. and Raper, S. C. B. and Wigley, T. M. L.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1417--1456},
title = {{Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration}},
url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/1417/2011/},
volume = {11},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Meinshausen2011a,
author = {Meinshausen, Malte and Smith, S. J. and Calvin, K. and Daniel, J. S. and Kainuma, M. L. T. and Lamarque, J-F. and Matsumoto, K. and Montzka, S. A. and Raper, S. C. B. and Riahi, K. and Thomson, A. and Velders, G. J. M. and van Vuuren, D.P. P.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {1-2},
pages = {213--241},
title = {{The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z},
volume = {109},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Meinshausen2020c,
author = {Meinshausen, Malte and Nicholls, Zebedee R. J. and Lewis, Jared and Gidden, Matthew J. and Vogel, Elisabeth and Freund, Mandy and Beyerle, Urs and Gessner, Claudia and Nauels, Alexander and Bauer, Nico and Canadell, Josep G. and Daniel, John S. and John, Andrew and Krummel, Paul B. and Luderer, Gunnar and Meinshausen, Nicolai and Montzka, Stephen A. and Rayner, Peter J. and Reimann, Stefan and Smith, Steven J. and van den Berg, Marten and Velders, Guus J. M. and Vollmer, Martin K. and Wang, Ray H. J.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {3571--3605},
title = {{The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3571/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@book{Merton1973,
address = {Chicago, IL, USA},
annote = {Q175.5 .m47
301.24/3},
author = {Merton, Robert King},
isbn = {9780226520926},
keywords = {Science Social aspects},
pages = {636},
publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
title = {{The Sociology of Science: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations}},
year = {1973}
}
@book{Milankovich1920,
address = {Paris, France},
annote = {Qc911 .m5},
author = {Milankovitch, Milutin},
keywords = {Solar radiation},
pages = {338},
publisher = {Gauthier-Villars et Cie},
title = {{Th{\'{e}}orie Math{\'{e}}matique des Ph{\'{e}}nom{\`{e}}nes Thermiques Produits par la Radiation Solaire}},
year = {1920}
}
@article{Millar2017,
author = {Millar, Richard J. and Fuglestvedt, Jan S. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Rogelj, Joeri and Grubb, Michael J. and Matthews, H. Damon and Skeie, Ragnhild B. and Forster, Piers M. and Frame, David J. and Allen, Myles R.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo3031},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {741--747},
title = {{Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3031},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{acp-17-7213-2017,
author = {Millar, R J and Nicholls, Z R and Friedlingstein, P and Allen, M R},
doi = {10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {11},
pages = {7213--7228},
title = {{A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/7213/2017/},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mills2014,
author = {Mills, Michael J and Toon, Owen B and Lee-Taylor, Julia and Robock, Alan},
doi = {10.1002/2013EF000205},
isbn = {23284277},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {nuclear winter},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {161--176},
title = {{Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013EF000205},
volume = {2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Min2011a,
abstract = {A significant effect of anthropogenic activities has already been detected in observed trends in temperature and mean precipitation. But to date, no study has formally identified such a human fingerprint on extreme precipitation — an increase in which is one of the central theoretical expectations for a warming climate. Seung-Ki Min and colleagues compare observations and simulations of rainfall between 1951 and 1999 in North America, Europe and northern Asia. They find a statistically significant effect of increased greenhouse gases on observed increases in extreme precipitation events over much of the Northern Hemisphere land area.},
author = {Min, Seung-Ki and Zhang, Xuebin and Zwiers, Francis W and Hegerl, Gabriele C},
doi = {10.1038/nature09763},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7334},
pages = {378--381},
title = {{Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09763},
volume = {470},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Mindlin2019,
author = {Mindlin, Julia and Shepherd, Theodore G. and Vera, Carolina S. and Osman, Marisol and Zappa, Giuseppe and Lee, Robert W. and Hodges, Kevin I.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05234-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {4399--4421},
title = {{Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05234-1},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ming2016,
abstract = {Even if humans stop discharging CO2 into the atmosphere, the average global temperature will still increase during this century. A lot of research has been devoted to prevent and reduce the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the atmosphere, in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is one of the technologies that might help to limit emissions. In complement, direct CO2 removal from the atmosphere has been proposed after the emissions have occurred. But, the removal of all the excess anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 will not be enough, due to the fact that CO2 outgases from the ocean as its solubility is dependent of its atmospheric partial pressure. Bringing back the Earth average surface temperature to pre-industrial levels would require the removal of all previously emitted CO2. Thus, the atmospheric removal of other greenhouse gases is necessary. This article proposes a combination of disrupting techniques to transform nitrous oxide (N2O), the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) in terms of current radiative forcing, which is harmful for the ozone layer and possesses quite high global warming potential. Although several scientific publications cite “greenhouse gas removal,” to our knowledge, it is the first time innovative solutions are proposed to effectively remove N2O or other GHGs from the atmosphere other than CO2.},
author = {Ming, Tingzhen and de Richter, Renaud and Shen, Sheng and Caillol, Sylvain},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-016-6103-9},
issn = {1614-7499},
journal = {Environmental Science and Pollution Research},
number = {7},
pages = {6119--6138},
title = {{Fighting global warming by greenhouse gas removal: destroying atmospheric nitrous oxide thanks to synergies between two breakthrough technologies}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-016-6103-9},
volume = {23},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Minx2018,
author = {Minx, Jan C and Lamb, William F and Callaghan, Max W and Fuss, Sabine and Hilaire, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Creutzig, Felix and Amann, Thorben and Beringer, Tim and {de Oliveira Garcia}, Wagner and Hartmann, Jens and Khanna, Tarun and Lenzi, Dominic and Luderer, Gunnar and Nemet, Gregory F and Rogelj, Joeri and Smith, Pete and {Vicente Vicente}, Jose Luis and Wilcox, Jennifer and {del Mar Zamora Dominguez}, Maria},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9b},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {063001},
title = {{Negative emissions – Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9b},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mitchell2003,
author = {Mitchell, Timothy D.},
doi = {10.1023/A:1026035305597},
issn = {01650009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {217--242},
publisher = {Kluwer Academic Publishers},
title = {{Pattern Scaling: An Examination of the Accuracy of the Technique for Describing Future Climates}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1023/A:1026035305597},
volume = {60},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Mitchell2000,
abstract = {The effect on climate of stabilising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at 550ppm and 750ppm is investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and compared with the response to a baseline case (1{\%} per year increase in carbon dioxide concentrations beyond 1990). Changes in other well-mixed greenhouse gases are not considered (although these are expected to increase in the future), so in practical terms the simulated changes in climate correspond to lower levels of carbon dioxide stabilisation. The global-mean warming between 1990 and 2100 is reduced by 40{\%} and 55{\%} respectively, in close agreement with estimates using energy balance models. Sea-level rise up to 2100 is also reduced, but in the longer stabilisation runs, unlike temperature, sea-level continues to rise throughout the simulations with little reduction of the rate of rise. The patterns of temperature and precipitation change are largely unchanged except that the southern hemisphere warms relative to the northern hemisphere. Changes over five subcontinental regions are considered in more detail. All of the regions, for all of the simulations, show a statistically significant warming by 2100. The reduction in annual-mean warming resulting from stabilisation is also significant by 2100. The seasonal changes in precipitation are significant by 2100 in the baseline simulation but the significance of differences in precipitation between the baseline and stabilisation simulations depends on location and season.},
author = {Mitchell, J F B and Johns, T C and Ingram, W J and Lowe, J A},
doi = {10.1029/1999GL011213},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Model,co2,doi:10.1029/1999GL011213,http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999GL011213},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {2977--2980},
title = {{The effect of stabilising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on global and regional climate change}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/1999GL011213 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/1999GL011213},
volume = {27},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Mitchell2017,
abstract = {Abstract. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations ({\textgreater} 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.},
author = {Mitchell, Daniel and AchutaRao, Krishna and Allen, Myles and Bethke, Ingo and Beyerle, Urs and Ciavarella, Andrew and Forster, Piers M. and Fuglestvedt, Jan and Gillett, Nathan and Haustein, Karsten and Ingram, William and Iversen, Trond and Kharin, Viatcheslav and Klingaman, Nicholas and Massey, Neil and Fischer, Erich and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Scinocca, John and Seland, {\O}yvind and Shiogama, Hideo and Shuckburgh, Emily and Sparrow, Sarah and Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} and Uhe, Peter and Wallom, David and Wehner, Michael and Zaaboul, Rashyd},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {571--583},
title = {{Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/10/571/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Miura2019,
abstract = {Spectral vegetation index time series data, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), from moderate resolution, polar-orbiting satellite sensors have widely been used for analysis of vegetation seasonal dynamics from regional to global scales. The utility of these datasets is often limited as frequent/persistent cloud occurrences reduce their effective temporal resolution. In this study, we evaluated improvements in capturing vegetation seasonal changes with 10-min resolution NDVI data derived from Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), one of new-generation geostationary satellite sensors. Our analysis was focused on continuous monitoring sites, representing three major ecosystems in Central Japan, where in situ time-lapse digital images documenting sky and surface vegetation conditions were available. The very large number of observations available with AHI resulted in improved NDVI temporal signatures that were remarkably similar to those acquired with in situ spectrometers and captured seasonal changes in vegetation and snow cover conditions in finer detail with more certainty than those obtained from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), one of the latest polar-orbiting satellite sensors. With the ability to capture in situ-quality NDVI temporal signatures, AHI “hypertemporal” data have the potential to improve spring and autumn phenology characterisation as well as the classification of vegetation formations.},
author = {Miura, Tomoaki and Nagai, Shin and Takeuchi, Mika and Ichii, Kazuhito and Yoshioka, Hiroki},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-52076-x},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {15692},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Improved Characterisation of Vegetation and Land Surface Seasonal Dynamics in Central Japan with Himawari-8 Hypertemporal Data}},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Mizuta2017,
abstract = {An unprecedentedly large ensemble of climate simulations with a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model and dynamical downscaling with a 20-km regional climate model has been performed to obtain probabilistic future projections of low-frequency local-scale events. The climate of the latter half of the twentieth century, the climate 4 K warmer than the preindustrial climate, and the climate of the latter half of the twentieth century without historical trends associated with the anthropogenic effect are each simulated for more than 5,000 years. From large ensemble simulations, probabilistic future changes in extreme events are available directly without using any statistical models. The atmospheric models are highly skillful in representing localized extreme events, such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. Moreover, mean climate changes in the models are consistent with those in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensembles. Therefore, the results enable the assessment of probabilistic change in localized severe events that have large uncertainty from internal variability. The simulation outputs are open to the public as a database called “Database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change” (d4PDF), which is intended to be utilized for impact assessment studies and adaptation planning for global warming.},
author = {Mizuta, Ryo and Murata, Akihiko and Ishii, Masayoshi and Shiogama, Hideo and Hibino, Kenshi and Mori, Nobuhito and Arakawa, Osamu and Imada, Yukiko and Yoshida, Kohei and Aoyagi, Toshinori and Kawase, Hiroaki and Mori, Masato and Okada, Yasuko and Shimura, Tomoya and Nagatomo, Toshiharu and Ikeda, Mikiko and Endo, Hirokazu and Nosaka, Masaya and Arai, Miki and Takahashi, Chiharu and Tanaka, Kenji and Takemi, Tetsuya and Tachikawa, Yasuto and Temur, Khujanazarov and Kamae, Youichi and Watanabe, Masahiro and Sasaki, Hidetaka and Kitoh, Akio and Takayabu, Izuru and Nakakita, Eiichi and Kimoto, Masahide},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0099.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {1383--1398},
title = {{Over 5,000 Years of Ensemble Future Climate Simulations by 60-km Global and 20-km Regional Atmospheric Models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0099.1},
volume = {98},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Moezzi2017,
author = {Moezzi, Mithra and Janda, Kathryn B. and Rotmann, Sea},
doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2017.06.034},
issn = {22146296},
journal = {Energy Research {\&} Social Science},
month = {sep},
pages = {1--10},
title = {{Using stories, narratives, and storytelling in energy and climate change research}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629617302050},
volume = {31},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Morales2020a,
abstract = {The SADA is an annually-resolved hydroclimate atlas in South America that spans the continent south of 12°S from 1400 to 2000 CE. Based on 286 tree ring records and instrumentally-based estimates of soil moisture, the SADA complements six drought atlases worldwide filling a geographical gap in the Southern Hemisphere. Independently validated with historical records, SADA shows that the frequency of widespread severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the 1960s is unprecedented. Major hydroclimate events expressed in the SADA are associated with strong El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies. Coupled ENSO-SAM anomalies together with subtropical low-level jet intensification due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions may cause more extreme droughts and pluvials in South America during the 21st century.South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.},
author = {Morales, Mariano S and Cook, Edward R and Barichivich, Jonathan and Christie, Duncan A and Villalba, Ricardo and LeQuesne, Carlos and Srur, Ana M and Ferrero, M Eugenia and Gonz{\'{a}}lez-Reyes, {\'{A}}lvaro and Couvreux, Fleur and Matskovsky, Vladimir and Aravena, Juan C and Lara, Antonio and Mundo, Ignacio A and Rojas, Facundo and Prieto, Mar{\'{i}}a R and Smerdon, Jason E and Bianchi, Lucas O and Masiokas, Mariano H and Urrutia-Jalabert, Rocio and Rodriguez-Cat{\'{o}}n, Milagros and Mu{\~{n}}oz, Ariel A and Rojas-Badilla, Moises and Alvarez, Claudio and Lopez, Lidio and Luckman, Brian H and Lister, David and Harris, Ian and Jones, Philip D and Williams, A Park and Velazquez, Gonzalo and Aliste, Diego and Aguilera-Betti, Isabella and Marcotti, Eugenia and Flores, Felipe and Mu{\~{n}}oz, Tom{\'{a}}s and Cuq, Emilio and Boninsegna, Jos{\'{e}} A},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2002411117},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {jul},
number = {29},
pages = {16816--16823},
title = {{Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/117/29/16816.abstract},
volume = {117},
year = {2020}
}
@article{10.5194/tc-15-1157-2021,
author = {Moreno, Ana and Bartolom{\'{e}}, Miguel and L{\'{o}}pez-Moreno, Juan Ignacio and Pey, Jorge and Corella, Juan Pablo and Garc{\'{i}}a-Orellana, Jordi and Sancho, Carlos and Leunda, Mar{\'{i}}a and Gil-Romera, Graciela and Gonz{\'{a}}lez-Samp{\'{e}}riz, Pen{\'{e}}lope and P{\'{e}}rez-Mej{\'{i}}as, Carlos and Navarro, Francisco and Otero-Garc{\'{i}}a, Jaime and Lapazaran, Javier and Alonso-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Esteban and Cid, Cristina and L{\'{o}}pez-Mart{\'{i}}nez, Jer{\'{o}}nimo and Oliva-Urcia, Bel{\'{e}}n and Faria, S{\'{e}}rgio Henrique and Sierra, Mar{\'{i}}a Jos{\'{e}} and Mill{\'{a}}n, Roc{\'{i}}o and Querol, Xavier and Alastuey, Andr{\'{e}}s and Garc{\'{i}}a-Ru{\'{i}}z, Jos{\'{e}} M.},
doi = {10.5194/tc-15-1157-2021},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {1157--1172},
title = {{The case of a southern European glacier which survived Roman and medieval warm periods but is disappearing under recent warming}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1157/2021/tc-15-1157-2021.html https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1157/2021/},
volume = {15},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Morice,
author = {Morice, C. P. and Kennedy, J. J. and Rayner, N. A. and Winn, J. P. and Hogan, E. and Killick, R. E. and Dunn, R. J. H. and Osborn, T. J. and Jones, P. D. and Simpson, I. R.},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD032361},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
title = {{An Updated Assessment of Near‐Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The HadCRUT5 Data Set}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD032361},
volume = {126},
year = {2021}
}
@techreport{Mormino1975,
annote = {Report
Td 1.20:76-41},
author = {Mormino, J and Sola, D and Patten, C},
doi = {hdl.handle.net/2027/mdp.39015039968873},
keywords = {Airplanes Environmental aspects,Stratosphere,Supersonic transport planes Environmental aspects},
pages = {206},
publisher = {U. S. Dept. of Transportation, Climatic Impact Assessment Program Office},
series = {DOT-TST-76-41},
title = {{Climatic Impact Assessment Program: Development and Accomplishments, 1971–1975}},
url = {hdl.handle.net/2027/mdp.39015039968873},
year = {1975}
}
@article{tc-14-1579-2020,
author = {Mortimer, C and Mudryk, L and Derksen, C and Luojus, K and Brown, R and Kelly, R and Tedesco, M},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-1579-2020},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
number = {5},
pages = {1579--1594},
title = {{Evaluation of long-term Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent products}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/1579/2020/},
volume = {14},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Moss2010,
author = {Moss, Richard H and Edmonds, Jae A and Hibbard, Kathy A and Manning, Martin R and Rose, Steven K and van Vuuren, Detlef P and Carter, Timothy R and Emori, Seita and Kainuma, Mikiko and Kram, Tom and Meehl, Gerald A and Mitchell, John F B and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Riahi, Keywan and Smith, Steven J and Stouffer, Ronald J and Thomson, Allison M and Weyant, John P and Wilbanks, Thomas J},
doi = {10.1038/nature08823},
journal = {Nature},
month = {feb},
pages = {747},
publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved},
title = {{The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08823 http://10.0.4.14/nature08823 https://www.nature.com/articles/nature08823{\#}supplementary-information},
volume = {463},
year = {2010}
}
@incollection{Moss2000,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {Moss, R H and Schneider, S H},
booktitle = {Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC},
editor = {Pachauri, R. and Taniguchi, T. and Tanaka, K.},
isbn = {4-9980908-0-1},
pages = {33--51},
publisher = {World Meteorological Organization (WMO)},
title = {{Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: Recommendations to lead authors for more consistent assessment and reporting}},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Mote2015,
abstract = {AbstractComputing resources donated by volunteers have generated the first superensemble of regional climate model results, in which the Hadley Centre Regional Model, version 3P (HadRM3P), and Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model, version 3P (HadAM3P), were implemented for the western United States at 25-km resolution. Over 136,000 valid and complete 1-yr runs have been generated to date: about 126,000 for 1960?2009 using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and 10,000 for 2030?49 using projected SSTs from a global model simulation. Ensemble members differ in initial conditions, model physics, and (potentially, for future runs) SSTs. This unprecedented confluence of high spatial resolution and large ensemble size allows high signal-to-noise ratio and more robust estimates of uncertainty. This paper describes the experiment, compares model output with observations, shows select results for climate change simulations, and gives examples of the strength of the large ensemble size.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1},
author = {Mote, Philip W and Allen, Myles R and Jones, Richard G and Li, Sihan and Mera, Roberto and Rupp, David E and Salahuddin, Ahmed and Vickers, Dean},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {203--215},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Superensemble Regional Climate Modeling for the Western United States}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1},
volume = {97},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Moy2019a,
abstract = {Glacial–interglacial changes in atmospheric CO2 are generally attributed to changes in seawater carbon chemistry in response to large-scale shifts in the ocean's biogeochemistry and general circulation. The Southern Ocean currently takes up more CO2 than any other and it is likely to have played a crucial role in regulating past atmospheric CO2. However, the physical, biological and chemical variables that control ocean–atmosphere CO2 exchange during glacial–interglacial cycles are not completely understood. Here we use boron isotopes and carbon isotopes in planktonic foraminifera and an alkenone-based proxy of temperature to reconstruct seawater pH and CO2 partial pressure in sub-Antarctic surface waters south of Tasmania over the past 25,000 years, and investigate the mechanisms that regulate seawater CO2. The new record shows that surface waters in this region were a sink for atmospheric CO2 during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our reconstruction suggests changes in the strength of the biological pump and the release of deep-ocean CO2 to surface waters contributed to the last deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2. These findings demonstrate that variations in upwelling intensity and the distribution of Southern Ocean water masses in this sector played a key role in regulating atmospheric CO2 during the last glacial–interglacial cycle.},
author = {Moy, Andrew D and Palmer, Martin R and Howard, William R and Bijma, Jelle and Cooper, Matthew J and Calvo, Eva and Pelejero, Carles and Gagan, Michael K and Chalk, Thomas B},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0473-9},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {12},
pages = {1006--1011},
title = {{Varied contribution of the Southern Ocean to deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0473-9},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{tc-14-2495-2020,
author = {Mudryk, L and Santolaria-Otin, M and Krinner, G and M{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}goz, M and Derksen, C and Brutel-Vuilmet, C and Brady, M and Essery, R},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
number = {7},
pages = {2495--2514},
title = {{Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/2495/2020/},
volume = {14},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Muller-Karger2018,
author = {Muller-Karger, Frank E. and Miloslavich, Patricia and Bax, Nicholas J. and Simmons, Samantha and Costello, Mark J. and {Sousa Pinto}, Isabel and Canonico, Gabrielle and Turner, Woody and Gill, Michael and Montes, Enrique and Best, Benjamin D. and Pearlman, Jay and Halpin, Patrick and Dunn, Daniel and Benson, Abigail and Martin, Corinne S. and Weatherdon, Lauren V. and Appeltans, Ward and Provoost, Pieter and Klein, Eduardo and Kelble, Christopher R. and Miller, Robert J. and Chavez, Francisco P. and Iken, Katrin and Chiba, Sanae and Obura, David and Navarro, Laetitia M. and Pereira, Henrique M. and Allain, Valerie and Batten, Sonia and Benedetti-Checchi, Lisandro and Duffy, J. Emmett and Kudela, Raphael M. and Rebelo, Lisa-Maria and Shin, Yunne and Geller, Gary},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2018.00211},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
month = {jun},
pages = {211},
title = {{Advancing Marine Biological Observations and Data Requirements of the Complementary Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) and Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) Frameworks}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2018.00211/full},
volume = {5},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{Murphy2018,
address = {Exeter, UK},
author = {Murphy, J.M. and Harris, G.R. and Sexton, D.M.H. and Kendon, E.J. and Bett, P.E. and Clark, R.T. and Eagle, K.E. and Fosser, G. and Fung, F. and Lowe, J.A. and McDonald, R.E. and McInnes, R.N. and McSweeney, C.F. and Mitchell, J.F.B. and Rostron, J.W. and Thornton, H.E. and Tucker, S. and Yamazaki, K.},
doi = {https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/ukcp18/science-reports/UKCP18-Land-report.pdf},
pages = {191},
publisher = {Met Office},
series = {00830/d},
title = {{UKCP18 Land Projections: Science Report}},
url = {https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/ukcp18/science-reports/UKCP18-Land-report.pdf},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Murphy2004a,
abstract = {Comprehensive global climate models are the only tools that account for the complex set of processes which will determine future climate change at both a global and regional level. Planners are typically faced with a wide range of predicted changes from different models of unknown relative quality, owing to large but unquantified uncertainties in the modelling process. Here we report a systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions constructed by varying model parameters. We estimate a probability density function for the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and obtain a 5-95 per cent probability range of 2.4-5.4 °C. Our probability density function is constrained by objective estimates of the relative reliability of different model versions, the choice of model parameters that are varied and their uncertainty ranges, specified on the basis of expert advice. Our ensemble produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of an individual simulation.},
author = {Murphy, James M. and Sexton, David M.H. and Barnett, David H. and Jones, Gareth S. and Webb, Mark J. and Collins, Matthew and Stainforth, David A.},
doi = {10.1038/nature02771},
issn = {00280836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Humanities and Social Sciences,Science,multidisciplinary},
month = {aug},
number = {7001},
pages = {768--772},
pmid = {15306806},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nature02771},
volume = {430},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Myers2020,
abstract = {Climate Matters is a localized climate change reporting resources program developed to support television (TV) weathercasters across the United States. Developed as a pilot test in one media market in 2010, it launched nationwide in 2013; in the autumn of 2019 more than 797 weathercasters were participating in the program. In this paper we present evidence of the impact of the Climate Matters program on Americans' science-based understanding of climate change. We analyzed three sets of data in a multilevel model: 20 nationally representative surveys of American adults conducted biannually since 2010 (n = 23 635), data on when and how frequently Climate Matters stories were aired in each U.S. media market, and data describing the demographic, economic, and climatic conditions in each media market. We hypothesized that 1) reporting about climate change by TV weathercasters will increase science-based public understanding of climate change and 2) this effect will be stronger for people who pay more attention to local weather forecasts. Our results partially support the first hypothesis: controlling for market-level factors (population size, temperature, political ideology, and economic prosperity) and individual-level factors (age, education, income, gender, and political ideology), there is a significant positive association between the amount of Climate Matters reporting and some key indicators of science-based understanding (including that climate change is occurring, is primarily human caused, and causes harm). However, there was no evidence for the second hypothesis. These findings suggest that climate reporting by TV weathercasters, as enabled by the Climate Matters program, may be increasing the climate literacy of the American people.},
author = {Myers, Teresa A. and Maibach, Edward W. and Placky, Bernadette Woods and Henry, Kimberly L. and Slater, Michael D. and Seitter, Keith L.},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0026.1},
issn = {1948-8327},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
month = {oct},
number = {4},
pages = {863--876},
title = {{Impact of the Climate Matters Program on Public Understanding of Climate Change}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/wcas/article/12/4/863/353498/Impact-of-the-Climate-Matters-Program-on-Public},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Myhre2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Myhre, Gunnar and Shindell, Drew T. and Breon, Francois-Marie and Collins, W. J. and Fuglestvedt, Jan S. and Huang, Jianping and Koch, Dorothy and Lamarque, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois J.-F. and Lee, David and Mendoza, Blanca and Nakajiama, Teruyuki and Robock, Alan and Stephens, Graeme and Takemura, Toshihiko and Zhang, Hua},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
pages = {44},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing Supplementary Material}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Mystakidis2016,
author = {Mystakidis, Stefanos and Davin, Edouard L. and Gruber, Nicolas and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13217},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {2198--2215},
title = {{Constraining future terrestrial carbon cycle projections using observation-based water and carbon flux estimates}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13217},
volume = {22},
year = {2016}
}
@techreport{NationalAcademiesofSciencesEngineeringandMedicine2016,
abstract = {As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Ni{\&}ntilde;o, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.},
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {{NA SEM}},
doi = {10.17226/21852},
isbn = {978-0-309-38094-2},
pages = {200},
publisher = {National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (NA SEM). The National Academies Press},
title = {{Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change}},
url = {http://www.nap.edu/catalog/21852},
year = {2016}
}
@book{Nakashima2012,
abstract = {When considering climate change, indigenous peoples and marginalized populations warrant particular attention. Impacts on their territories and communities are anticipated to be both early and severe due to their location in vulnerable environments, including small islands, high-altitude zones, desert margins and the circumpolar Arctic. Indeed, climate change poses a direct threat to many indigenous societies due to their continuing reliance upon resource-based livelihoods. Heightened exposure to negative impacts, however, is not the only reason for specific attention and concern. As many indigenous societies are socially and culturally distinct from mainstream society, decisions, policies and actions undertaken by the majority, even if well-intended, may prove inadequate, ill-adapted, and even inappropriate. There is therefore a need to understand the specific vulnerabilities, concerns, adaptation capacities and longer-term aspirations of indigenous peoples and marginalized communities throughout the world. Indigenous and traditional knowledge contribute to this broader understanding. Indigenous and rural peoples, however, are not only potential victims of global climate change. Attentiveness to environmental variability, shifts and trends is an integral part of their ways of life. Community-based and local knowledge may offer valuable insights into environmental change due to climate change, and complement broader-scale scientific research with local precision and nuance. Indigenous societies have elaborated coping strategies to deal with unstable environments, and in some cases, are already actively adapting to early climate change impacts. While the transformations due to climate change are expected to be unprecedented, indigenous knowledge and coping strategies provide a crucial foundation for community-based adaptation measures. Indigenous knowledge was acknowledged in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as ‘an invaluable basis for developing adaptation and natural resource management strategies in response to environmental and other forms of change' (IPCC, 2007). This recognition was reaffirmed at IPCC's 32nd Session (IPCC, 2010a) and consideration of traditional and indigenous knowledge was included as a guiding principle for the Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF) that was adopted by Parties at the 2010 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference in Cancun (UNFCCC, 2010). The outline of the IPCC's Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) includes local and traditional knowledge as a distinct topic within Chapter 12 on human security.},
address = {Paris, France and Darwin, Australia},
author = {Nakashima, D.J. and {Galloway McLean}, K. and Thulstrup, H.D. and {Ramos Castillo}, A. and Rubis, J.T.},
doi = {https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:1511},
isbn = {9789230010683},
keywords = {assessment and adaptation,change,traditional knowledge for climate,weathering uncertainty},
pages = {120},
publisher = {United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and United Nations University Traditional Knowledge Initiative},
title = {{Weathering Uncertainty: Traditional knowledge for climate change assessment and adaptation}},
url = {https://collections.unu.edu/view/UNU:1511},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Nakicenovic2014,
author = {Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Lempert, Robert J. and Janetos, Anthony C.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0982-2},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {351--361},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research: Introductory Essay}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0982-2},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Nauels2019,
abstract = {The main contributors to sea-level rise (oceans, glaciers, and ice sheets) respond to climate change on timescales ranging from decades to millennia. A focus on the 21st century thus fails to provide a complete picture of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on future sea-level rise and its long-term impacts. Here we identify the committed global mean sea-level rise until 2300 from historical emissions since 1750 and the currently pledged National Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement until 2030. Our results indicate that greenhouse gas emissions over this 280-y period result in about 1 m of committed global mean sea-level rise by 2300, with the NDC emissions from 2016 to 2030 corresponding to around 20 cm or 1/5 of that commitment. We also find that 26 cm (12 cm) of the projected sea-level-rise commitment in 2300 can be attributed to emissions from the top 5 emitting countries (China, United States of America, European Union, India, and Russia) over the 1991–2030 (2016–2030) period. Our findings demonstrate that global and individual country emissions over the first decades of the 21st century alone will cause substantial long-term sea-level rise.},
author = {Nauels, Alexander and G{\"{u}}tschow, Johannes and Mengel, Matthias and Meinshausen, Malte and Clark, Peter U. and Schleussner, Carl Friedrich},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1907461116},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Emission pledges,Paris Agreement,Sea-level rise},
number = {47},
pages = {23487--23492},
pmid = {31685608},
title = {{Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges}},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Navarro2017,
author = {Navarro, Laetitia M and Fern{\'{a}}ndez, N{\'{e}}stor and Guerra, Carlos and Guralnick, Rob and Kissling, W Daniel and Londo{\~{n}}o, Maria Cecilia and Muller-Karger, Frank and Turak, Eren and Balvanera, Patricia and Costello, Mark J and Delavaud, Aurelie and {El Serafy}, GY and Ferrier, Simon and Geijzendorffer, Ilse and Geller, Gary N and Jetz, Walter and Kim, Eun-Shik and Kim, HyeJin and Martin, Corinne S and McGeoch, Melodie A and Mwampamba, Tuyeni H and Nel, Jeanne L and Nicholson, Emily and Pettorelli, Nathalie and Schaepman, Michael E and Skidmore, Andrew and {Sousa Pinto}, Isabel and Vergara, Sheila and Vihervaara, Petteri and Xu, Haigen and Yahara, Tetsukazu and Gill, Mike and Pereira, Henrique M},
doi = {10.1016/j.cosust.2018.02.005},
issn = {18773435},
journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability},
month = {dec},
pages = {158--169},
title = {{Monitoring biodiversity change through effective global coordination}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1877343517301665},
volume = {29},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Naveau2018,
abstract = {Both climate and statistical models play an essential role in the process of demonstrating that the distribution of some atmospheric variable has changed over time and in establishing the most likely causes for the detected change. One statistical difficulty in the research field of detection and attribution resides in defining events that can be easily compared and accurately inferred from reasonable sample sizes. As many impacts studies focus on extreme events, the inference of small probabilities and the computation of their associated uncertainties quickly become challenging. In the particular context of event attribution, the authors address the question of how to compare records between the counterfactual "world as it might have been" without anthropogenic forcings and the factual "world that is." Records are often the most important events in terms of impact and get much media attention. The authors will show how to efficiently estimate the ratio of two small probabilities of records. The inferential gain is particularly substantial when a simple hypothesis-testing procedure is implemented. The theoretical justification of such a proposed scheme can be found in extreme value theory. To illustrate this study's approach, classical indicators in event attribution studies, like the risk ratio or the fraction of attributable risk, are modified and tailored to handle records. The authors illustrate the advantages of their method through theoretical results, simulation studies, temperature records in Paris, and outputs from a numerical climate model.},
author = {Naveau, Philippe and Ribes, Aur{\'{e}}lien and Zwiers, Francis and Hannart, Alexis and Tuel, Alexandre and Yiou, Pascal},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0752.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Changepoint analysis,Climate change,Extreme events,Risk assessment,Statistical techniques,Statistics},
number = {9},
pages = {3411--3422},
title = {{Revising return periods for record events in a climate event attribution context}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@book{Nebeker1995,
address = {San Diego, CA, USA},
author = {Nebeker, Frederik},
isbn = {0-12-515175-6},
pages = {265},
publisher = {Academic Press},
series = {International Geophysics Series Vol. 60},
title = {{Calculating the Weather: Meteorology in the 20th Century}},
year = {1995}
}
@article{Nehrbass-Ahles2020b,
abstract = {Pulse-like carbon dioxide release to the atmosphere on centennial time scales has only been identified for the most recent glacial and deglacial periods and is thought to be absent during warmer climate conditions. Here, we present a high-resolution carbon dioxide record from 330,000 to 450,000 years before present, revealing pronounced carbon dioxide jumps (CDJ) under cold and warm climate conditions. CDJ come in two varieties that we attribute to invigoration or weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated northward and southward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone, respectively. We find that CDJ are pervasive features of the carbon cycle that can occur during interglacial climate conditions if land ice masses are sufficiently extended to be able to disturb the AMOC by freshwater input.},
author = {Nehrbass-Ahles, C. and Shin, J. and Schmitt, J. and Bereiter, B. and Joos, F. and Schilt, A. and Schmidely, L. and Silva, L. and Teste, G. and Grilli, R. and Chappellaz, J. and Hodell, D. and Fischer, H. and Stocker, T. F.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aay8178},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {6506},
pages = {1000--1005},
title = {{Abrupt CO2 release to the atmosphere under glacial and early interglacial climate conditions}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aay8178},
volume = {369},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Neukom2019,
author = {Neukom, Raphael and Steiger, Nathan and G{\'{o}}mez-Navarro, Juan Jos{\'{e}} and Wang, Jianghao and Werner, Johannes P.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1401-2},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jul},
number = {7766},
pages = {550--554},
title = {{No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1401-2},
volume = {571},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Nicholls,
abstract = {Abstract. Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1 ∘C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2 ∘C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3 ∘C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23∘C(±0.12 ∘C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs.},
author = {Nicholls, Zebedee R. J. and Meinshausen, Malte and Lewis, Jared and Gieseke, Robert and Dommenget, Dietmar and Dorheim, Kalyn and Fan, Chen-Shuo and Fuglestvedt, Jan S. and Gasser, Thomas and Gol{\"{u}}ke, Ulrich and Goodwin, Philip and Hartin, Corinne and Hope, Austin P. and Kriegler, Elmar and Leach, Nicholas J. and Marchegiani, Davide and McBride, Laura A. and Quilcaille, Yann and Rogelj, Joeri and Salawitch, Ross J. and Samset, Bj{\o}rn H. and Sandstad, Marit and Shiklomanov, Alexey N. and Skeie, Ragnhild B. and Smith, Christopher J. and Smith, Steve and Tanaka, Katsumasa and Tsutsui, Junichi and Xie, Zhiang},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {oct},
number = {11},
pages = {5175--5190},
title = {{Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/5175/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Nieto2019,
author = {Nieto, Raquel and Gimeno, Luis},
doi = {10.1038/s41597-019-0068-8},
issn = {2052-4463},
journal = {Scientific Data},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {59},
title = {{A database of optimal integration times for Lagrangian studies of atmospheric moisture sources and sinks}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-019-0068-8},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@unpublished{Nordhaus1975a,
address = {Laxenberg, Austria},
author = {Nordhaus, William D.},
pages = {47},
publisher = {International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)},
series = {IIASA Working Paper WP-75-63},
title = {{Can We Control Carbon Dioxide?}},
url = {http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/365/},
year = {1975}
}
@unpublished{Nordhaus1977a,
address = {New Haven, CN, USA},
author = {Nordhaus, William D.},
pages = {79},
publisher = {Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics. Yale University},
series = {Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 443},
title = {{Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide}},
url = {https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d04/d0443.pdf},
year = {1977}
}
@article{gmd-9-3427-2016,
abstract = {Abstract. A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standard for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. In this contribution, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.},
author = {Notz, Dirk and Jahn, Alexandra and Holland, Marika and Hunke, Elizabeth and Massonnet, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Stroeve, Julienne and Tremblay, Bruno and Vancoppenolle, Martin},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3427-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3427--3446},
title = {{The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3427/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Notz2018,
abstract = {The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state.},
author = {Notz, Dirk and Stroeve, Julienne},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {407--416},
title = {{The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Notz 2015 doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0164,
abstract = {The usefulness of a climate-model simulation cannot be inferred solely from its degree of agreement with observations. Instead, one has to consider additional factors such as internal variability, the tuning of the model, observational uncertainty, the temporal change in dominant processes or the uncertainty in the forcing. In any model-evaluation study, the impact of these limiting factors on the suitability of specific metrics must hence be examined. This can only meaningfully be done relative to a given purpose for using a model. I here generally discuss these points and substantiate their impact on model evaluation using the example of sea ice. For this example, I find that many standard metrics such as sea-ice area or volume only permit limited inferences about the shortcomings of individual models.},
author = {Notz, Dirk},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2014.0164},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
number = {2052},
pages = {20140164},
title = {{How well must climate models agree with observations?}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rsta.2014.0164},
volume = {373},
year = {2015}
}
@article{gmd-9-4521-2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project {\&}ndash; phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheet{\&}ndash;climate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.},
author = {Nowicki, Sophie M J and Payne, Anthony and Larour, Eric and Seroussi, Helene and Goelzer, Heiko and Lipscomb, William and Gregory, Jonathan and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Shepherd, Andrew},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {4521--4545},
title = {{Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/4521/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@techreport{NationalResearchCouncil;AdHocStudyGrouponCarbonDioxideandClimate1979,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
annote = {Report to the Climate Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Science, National Research Council},
author = {NRC},
doi = {10.17226/12181},
pages = {34},
publisher = {National Research Council (NRC) Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate. The National Academies Press},
title = {{Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment}},
url = {http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12181},
year = {1979}
}
@techreport{NationalResearchCouncil1983,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
annote = {Times cited: 20},
author = {NRC},
doi = {10.17226/18714},
isbn = {978-0-309-03425-8},
month = {jan},
pages = {496},
publisher = {National Research Council (NRC). The National Academies Press},
title = {{Changing Climate: Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee}},
url = {http://www.nap.edu/catalog/18714},
year = {1983}
}
@incollection{NRCCommitteeonaNationalStrategyforAdvancingClimateModeling2012,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {NRC},
booktitle = {A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling},
chapter = {11},
doi = {10.17226/13430},
pages = {197--208},
publisher = {National Research Council (NRC) Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling. The National Academies Press},
title = {{Synergies Between Weather and Climate Modeling}},
url = {https://www.nap.edu/read/13430/chapter/16},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Nunn2016,
author = {Nunn, Patrick D. and Reid, Nicholas J.},
doi = {10.1080/00049182.2015.1077539},
issn = {0004-9182},
journal = {Australian Geographer},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {11--47},
title = {{Aboriginal Memories of Inundation of the Australian Coast Dating from More than 7000 Years Ago}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00049182.2015.1077539},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{ONeill2017a,
abstract = {Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change. The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future changes in climate and society to investigate climate impacts as well as options for mitigation and adaptation. One component of these new scenarios is a set of alternative futures of societal development known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The conceptual framework for the design and use of the SSPs calls for the development of global pathways describing the future evolution of key aspects of society that would together imply a range of challenges for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Here we present one component of these pathways: the SSP narratives, a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives as well as how these pathways are hypothesized to produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Development of the narratives drew on expert opinion to (1) identify key determinants of these challenges that were essential to incorporate in the narratives and (2) combine these elements in the narratives in a manner consistent with scholarship on their inter-relationships. The narratives are intended as a description of plausible future conditions at the level of large world regions that can serve as a basis for integrated scenarios of emissions and land use, as well as climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses.},
author = {O'Neill, Brian C. and Kriegler, Elmar and Ebi, Kristie L. and Kemp-Benedict, Eric and Riahi, Keywan and Rothman, Dale S. and van Ruijven, Bas J. and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Birkmann, Joern and Kok, Kasper and Levy, Marc and Solecki, William},
doi = {10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2015.01.004},
issn = {0959-3780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {jan},
pages = {169--180},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378015000060},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@article{ONeill2014,
abstract = {The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework.We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.},
author = {O'Neill, Brian C. and Kriegler, Elmar and Riahi, Keywan and Ebi, Kristie L. and Hallegatte, Stephane and Carter, Timothy R. and Mathur, Ritu and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and O'Neill, Brian C. and Kriegler, Elmar and Riahi, Keywan and Ebi, Kristie L. and Hallegatte, Stephane and Carter, Timothy R. and Mathur, Ritu and van Vuuren, Detlef P.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2},
isbn = {1553-7250},
issn = {01650009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {387--400},
pmid = {20402369},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{O&amp;apos;Neill2016a,
abstract = {Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.},
author = {O'Neill, Brian C. and Tebaldi, Claudia and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Eyring, Veronika and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Hurtt, George and Knutti, Reto and Kriegler, Elmar and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Lowe, Jason and Meehl, Gerald A. and Moss, Richard and Riahi, Keywan and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3461--3482},
title = {{The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3461/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{ONeill2020,
author = {O'Neill, Brian. C. and Carter, Timothy R. and Ebi, Kristie and Harrison, Paula A. and Kemp-Benedict, Eric and Kok, Kasper and Kriegler, Elmar and Preston, Benjamin L. and Riahi, Keywan and Sillmann, Jana and van Ruijven, Bas J. and van Vuuren, Detlef and Carlisle, David and Conde, Cecilia and Fuglestvedt, Jan and Green, Carole and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Leininger, Julia and Monteith, Seth and Pichs-Madruga, Ramon},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1074--1084},
title = {{Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00952-0},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{ONeill2017,
abstract = {The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary climate change metrics to global mean temperature change and better account for possible changes in social and ecological system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios of future climatic and societal conditions.},
author = {O'Neill, Brian C. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Warren, Rachel and Hallegatte, Stephane and Kopp, Robert E. and P{\"{o}}rtner, Hans O. and Scholes, Robert and Birkmann, Joern and Foden, Wendy and Licker, Rachel and MacH, Katharine J. and Marbaix, Phillippe and Mastrandrea, Michael D. and Price, Jeff and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and {Van Ypersele}, Jean-Pascal Pascal and Yohe, Gary},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3179},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {28--37},
title = {{IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3179},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{10.3389/fmars.2019.00580,
abstract = {Coral reefs are exceptionally biodiverse and human dependence on their ecosystem services is high. Reefs experience significant direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures, and provide a sensitive indicator of coastal ocean health, climate change, and ocean acidification, with associated implications for society. Monitoring coral reef status and trends is essential to better inform science, management and policy, but the projected collapse of reef systems within a few decades makes the provision of accurate and actionable monitoring data urgent. The Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network has been the foundation for global reporting on coral reefs for two decades, and is entering into a new phase with improved operational and data standards incorporating the Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) ({\textless}ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.goosocean.org/eov" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"{\textgreater}www.goosocean.org/eov{\textless}/ext-link{\textgreater}) and Framework for Ocean Observing developed by the Global Ocean Observing System. Three EOVs provide a robust description of reef health: hard coral cover and composition, macro-algal canopy cover, and fish diversity and abundance. A data quality model based on comprehensive metadata has been designed to facilitate maximum global coverage of coral reef data, and tangible steps to track capacity building. Improved monitoring of events such as mass bleaching and disease outbreaks, citizen science, and socio-economic monitoring have the potential to greatly improve the relevance of monitoring to managers and stakeholders, and to address the complex and multi- dimensional interactions between reefs and people. A new generation of autonomous vehicles (underwater, surface, and aerial) and satellites are set to revolutionize and vastly expand our understanding of coral reefs. Promising approaches include Structure from Motion image processing, and acoustic techniques. Across all systems, curation of data in linked and open online databases, with an open data culture to maximize benefits from data integration, and empowering users to take action, are priorities. Action in the next decade will be essential to mitigate the impacts on coral reefs from warming temperatures, through local management and informing national and international obligations, particularly in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals, climate action, and the role of coral reefs as a global indicator. Mobilizing data to help drive the needed behavior change is a top priority for coral reef observing systems.},
author = {Obura, David O and Aeby, Greta and Amornthammarong, Natchanon and Appeltans, Ward and Bax, Nicholas and Bishop, Joe and Brainard, Russell E and Chan, Samuel and Fletcher, Pamela and Gordon, Timothy A C and Gramer, Lew and Gudka, Mishal and Halas, John and Hendee, James and Hodgson, Gregor and Huang, Danwei and Jankulak, Mike and Jones, Albert and Kimura, Tadashi and Levy, Joshua and Miloslavich, Patricia and Chou, Loke Ming and Muller-Karger, Frank and Osuka, Kennedy and Samoilys, Melita and Simpson, Stephen D and Tun, Karenne and Wongbusarakum, Supin},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00580},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {580},
title = {{Coral Reef Monitoring, Reef Assessment Technologies, and Ecosystem-Based Management}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00580},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ohmura1998,
abstract = {To support climate research, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) initiated a new radiometric network, the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). The network aims at providing validation material for satellite radiometry and climate models. It further aims at detecting long-term variations in irradiances at the earth's surface, which are believed to play an important role in climate change. The network and its instrumentation are designed 1) to cover major climate zones, 2) to provide the accuracy required to meet the objectives, and 3) to ensure homogenized standards for a long period in the future. The limits of the accuracy are defined to reach these goals. The suitable instruments and instrumentations have been determined and the methods for observations and data management have been agreed on at all stations. Measurements of irradiances are at 1 Hz, and the 1-min statistics (mean, standard deviation, and extreme values) with quality flags are stored at a centralized data archive at the WCRP's World Radiation Monitoring Center (WRMC) in Zurich, Switzerland. The data are quality controlled both at stations and at the WRMC. The original 1-min irradiance statistics will be stored at the WRMC for 10 years, while hourly mean values will be transferred to the World Radiation Data Center in St. Petersburg, Russia. The BSRN, consisting of 15 stations, covers the earth's surface from 80°N to 90°S, and will soon be joined by seven more stations. The data are available to scientific communities in various ways depending on the communication environment of the users. The present article discusses the scientific base, organizational and technical aspects of the network, and data retrieval methods; shows various application possibilities; and presents the future tasks to be accomplished.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1998)0792.0.CO;2},
author = {Ohmura, Atsumu and Dutton, Ellsworth G and Forgan, Bruce and Fr{\"{o}}hlich, Claus and Gilgen, Hans and Hegner, Herman and Heimo, Alain and K{\"{o}}nig-Langlo, Gert and McArthur, Bruce and M{\"{u}}ller, Guido and Philipona, Rolf and Pinker, Rachel and Whitlock, Charlie H and Dehne, Klaus and Wild, Martin},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2115:BSRNBW>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {2115--2136},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN/WCRP): New Precision Radiometry for Climate Research}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079{\%}3C2115:BSRNBW{\%}3E2.0.CO http://0.0.0.2},
volume = {79},
year = {1998}
}
@article{OLIVA201664,
abstract = {European Space Agency's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission is perturbed by Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) that jeopardizes part of its scientific retrieval in certain areas of the world. Areas affected by RFI might experience data loss or underestimation of soil moisture and ocean salinity retrieval values. To alleviate this situation, the SMOS team has put several strategies into place that help improve the RFI situation, filter the SMOS data from RFI perturbed measurements and bring awareness to the RFI problem.},
annote = {Special Issue: ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity Mission - Achievements and Applications},
author = {Oliva, R and Daganzo, E and Richaume, P and Kerr, Y and Cabot, F and Soldo, Y and Anterrieu, E and Reul, N and Gutierrez, A and Barbosa, J and Lopes, G},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2016.01.013},
issn = {0034-4257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
pages = {64--75},
title = {{Status of Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) in the 1400–1427MHz passive band based on six years of SMOS mission}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716300141},
volume = {180},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Olonscheck2017,
abstract = {This paper introduces and applies a new method to consistently estimate internal climate variability for all models within a multimodel ensemble. The method regresses each model's estimate of internal variability from the preindustrial control simulation on the variability derived from a model's ensemble simulations, thus providing practical evidence of the quasi-ergodic assumption. The method allows one to test in a multimodel consensus view how the internal variability of a variable changes for different forcing scenarios. Applying the method to the CMIP5 model ensemble shows that the internal variability of global-mean surface air temperature remains largely unchanged for historical simulations and might decrease for future simulations with a large CO2 forcing. Regionally, the projected changes reveal likely increases in temperature variability in the tropics, subtropics, and polar regions, and extremely likely decreases in midlatitudes. Applying the method to sea ice volume and area shows that their respective internal variability likely or extremely likely decreases proportionally to their mean state, except for Arctic sea ice area, which shows no consistent change across models. For the evaluation of CMIP5 simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, the method confirms that internal variability can explain most of the models' deviation from observed trends but often not the models' deviation from the observed mean states. The new method benefits from a large number of models and long preindustrial control simulations, but it requires only a small number of ensemble simulations. The method allows for consistent consideration of internal variability in multimodel studies and thus fosters understanding of the role of internal variability in a changing climate.},
author = {Olonscheck, Dirk and Notz, Dirk},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0428.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate models,Climate variability,Ensembles,Model evaluation/performance,Sea ice,Surface temperature},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {9555--9573},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Consistently estimating internal climate variability from climate model simulations}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Oppenheimer2016,
author = {Oppenheimer, Michael and Little, Christopher M. and Cooke, Roger M.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2959},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {445--451},
title = {{Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2959},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@book{Oreskes2010,
abstract = {The U.S. scientific community has long led the world in research on such areas as public health, environmental science, and issues affecting quality of life. These scientists have produced landmark studies on the dangers of DDT, tobacco smoke, acid rain, and global warming. But at the same time, a small yet potent subset of this community leads the world in vehement denial of these dangers. Merchants of Doubt tells the story of how a loose-knit group of high-level scientists and scientific advisers, with deep connections in politics and industry, ran effective campaigns to mislead the public and deny well-established scientific knowledge over four decades. Remarkably, the same individuals surface repeatedly-some of the same figures who have claimed that the science of global warming is "not settled" denied the truth of studies linking smoking to lung cancer, coal smoke to acid rain, and CFCs to the ozone hole. "Doubt is our product," wrote one tobacco executive. These "experts" supplied it. Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway, historians of science, roll back the rug on this dark corner of the American scientific community, showing how ideology and corporate interests, aided by a too-compliant media, have skewed public understanding of some of the most pressing issues of our era.},
address = {New York, NY, USA},
author = {Oreskes, Naomi and Conway, Erik M.},
isbn = {978-1596916104},
pages = {368},
publisher = {Bloomsbury Press},
title = {{Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming}},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Orlove2010a,
author = {Orlove, Ben and Roncoli, Carla and Kabugo, Merit and Majugu, Abushen},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-009-9586-2},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {243--265},
title = {{Indigenous climate knowledge in southern Uganda: the multiple components of a dynamic regional system}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-009-9586-2},
volume = {100},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Orlowsky2013,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) of these events lies within the general range of observation-based SPI time series and simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In terms of magnitude, regional trends of SPI over the last decades remain mostly inconclusive in observation-based datasets and CMIP5 simulations, but Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMAs) in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions (e.g., the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon, North-East Brazil and South Africa). Also for the future, projections of changes in the magnitude of meteorological (SPI) and soil moisture (SMA) drought in CMIP5 display large spreads over all time frames, generally impeding trend detection. However, projections of changes in the frequencies of future drought events display more robust signal-to-noise ratios, with detectable trends towards more frequent drought before the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central America/Mexico. Other present-day hot spots are projected to become less drought-prone, or display non-significant changes in drought occurrence. A separation of different sources of uncertainty in projections of meteorological and soil moisture drought reveals that for the near term, internal climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulation of Global Climate Models (GCMs) generally becomes the dominant source of spread by the end of the 21st century, especially for soil moisture drought. In comparison, the uncertainty from Green-House Gas (GHG) concentrations scenarios is negligible for most regions. These findings stand in contrast to respective analyses for a heat wave index, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the main source of uncertainty. Our results highlight the inherent difficulty of drought quantification and the considerable likelihood range of drought projections, but also indicate regions where drought is consistently found to increase. In other regions, wide likelihood range should not be equated with low drought risk, since potential scenarios include large drought increases in key agricultural and ecosystem regions.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Orlowsky, B. and Seneviratne, S. I.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {1765--1781},
title = {{Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/17/1765/2013/},
volume = {17},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Orr2017,
abstract = {Abstract. The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948–2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are founded on those from previous phases of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. They have been merged and updated to reflect improvements concerning gas exchange, carbonate chemistry, and new data for initial conditions and atmospheric gas histories. Code is provided to facilitate their implementation.},
author = {Orr, James C. and Najjar, Raymond G. and Aumont, Olivier and Bopp, Laurent and Bullister, John L. and Danabasoglu, Gokhan and Doney, Scott C. and Dunne, John P. and Dutay, Jean-Claude and Graven, Heather and Griffies, Stephen M. and John, Jasmin G. and Joos, Fortunat and Levin, Ingeborg and Lindsay, Keith and Matear, Richard J. and McKinley, Galen A. and Mouchet, Anne and Oschlies, Andreas and Romanou, Anastasia and Schlitzer, Reiner and Tagliabue, Alessandro and Tanhua, Toste and Yool, Andrew},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {2169--2199},
title = {{Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/2169/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Osborn2021,
abstract = {Abstract Climatic Research Unit temperature version 5 (CRUTEM5) is an extensive revision of our land surface air temperature data set. We have expanded the underlying compilation of monthly temperature records from 5,583 to 10,639 stations, of which those with sufficient data to be used in the gridded data set has grown from 4,842 to 7,983. Many station records have also been extended or replaced by series that have been homogenized by national meteorological and hydrological services. We have improved the identification of potential outliers in these data to better capture outliers during the reference period; to avoid classifying some real regional temperature extremes as outliers; and to reduce trends in outlier counts arising from climatic warming. Due to these updates, the gridded data set shows some regional increases in station density and regional changes in temperature anomalies. Nonetheless, the global-mean timeseries of land air temperature is only slightly modified compared with previous versions and previous conclusions are not altered. The standard gridding algorithm and comprehensive error model are the same as for the previous version, but we have explored an alternative gridding algorithm that removes the under-representation of high latitude stations. The alternative gridding increases estimated global-mean land warming by about 0.1°C over the course of the whole record. The warming from 1861?1900 to the mean of the last 5 years is 1.6°C using the standard gridding (with a 95{\%} confidence interval for errors on individual annual means of ?0.11 to +0.10°C in recent years), while the alternative gridding gives a change of 1.7°C.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032352},
author = {Osborn, T J and Jones, P D and Lister, D H and Morice, C P and Simpson, I R and Winn, J P and Hogan, E and Harris, I C},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD032352},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CRUTEM,climate change,global temperature,global warming,instrumental climate data,land air temperature},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {e2019JD032352},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Land Surface Air Temperature Variations Across the Globe Updated to 2019: The CRUTEM5 Data Set}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032352},
volume = {126},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Ostrom2012,
abstract = {each element acts with independence of other elements (see also Ostrom 2008a,b ... A polycentricsystem exists when multiple public and private organizations at multiple scales jointly ... The earlytheoretical work on polycentricity stimulated intensive research on the governance of ...},
annote = {Times cited: 23},
author = {Ostrom, Elinor},
doi = {10.1007/s00199-010-0558-6},
isbn = {0938-2259},
issn = {0938-2259},
journal = {Economic Theory},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {353--369},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Nested externalities and polycentric institutions: must we wait for global solutions to climate change before taking actions at other scales?}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00199-010-0558-6},
volume = {49},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Ostrom1996,
author = {Ostrom, Elinor},
doi = {10.1016/0305-750X(96)00023-X},
issn = {0305750X},
journal = {World Development},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1073--1087},
title = {{Crossing the great divide: Coproduction, synergy, and development}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0305750X9600023X},
volume = {24},
year = {1996}
}
@article{Ottera2010,
abstract = {Instrumental records, proxy data and climate modelling show that multidecadal variability is a dominant feature of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature variations, with potential impacts on regional climate. To understand the observed variability and to gauge any potential for climate predictions it is essential to identify the physical mechanisms that lead to this variability, and to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal variability modes. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to show that the phasing of the multidecadal fluctuations in the North Atlantic during the past 600 years is, to a large degree, governed by changes in the external solar and volcanic forcings. We find that volcanoes play a particularly important part in the phasing of the multidecadal variability through their direct influence on tropical sea-surface temperatures, on the leading mode of northern-hemisphere atmosphere circulation and on the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. We suggest that the implications of our findings for decadal climate prediction are twofold: because volcanic eruptions cannot be predicted a decade in advance, longer-term climate predictability may prove challenging, whereas the systematic post-eruption changes in ocean and atmosphere may hold promise for shorter-term climate prediction. {\textcopyright} 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.},
author = {Otter{\aa}, Odd Helge and Bentsen, Mats and Drange, Helge and Suo, Lingling},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo955},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {688--694},
title = {{External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo955},
volume = {3},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Otto2018,
abstract = {Abstract Increasing likelihoods of extreme weather events is the most noticeable and damaging manifestation of anthropogenic climate change. In the aftermath of an extreme event, policy makers are often called upon to make timely and sensitive decisions about rebuilding and managing present and future risks. Information regarding whether, where and how present-day and future risks are changing is needed to adequately inform these decisions. But, this information is often not available and when it is, it is often not presented in a systematic way. Here, we demonstrate a seamless approach to the science of extreme event attribution and future risk assessment by using the same set of model ensembles to provide such information on past, present and future hazard risks in four case studies on different types of events. Given the current relevance, we focus on estimating the change in future hazard risk under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean temperature rise. We find that this approach not only addresses important decision-making gaps, but also improves the robustness of future risk assessment and attribution statements alike.},
author = {Otto, Friederike E. L. and Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and Li, Sihan and King, Andrew and Cullen, Heidi},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2258-3},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {399--412},
title = {{Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales—a case study of four different types of events}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2258-3},
volume = {149},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Otto2017,
abstract = {Within the past decade, the attribution of extreme weather and climate events has emerged from a theoretical possibility into a subfield of climate science in its own right, providing scientific evidence on the role of anthropogenic climate change in individual extreme weather events, on a regular basis and using a range of approaches. Different approaches and thus different framings of the attribution question lead to very different assessments of the role of human-induced climate change. Although there is no right or wrong approach, the community is currently debating about the appropriate methodologies for addressing various stakeholder needs and scientific limitations. Tackling these limitations with more thorough model evaluation and meaningful bias corrections as well as going beyond the meteorological hazard and attributing the full impacts of extreme weather are the main challenges to face in the coming years.},
author = {Otto, Friederike E.L.},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060847},
isbn = {1020160608},
issn = {1543-5938},
journal = {Annual Review of Environment and Resources},
number = {1},
pages = {627--646},
title = {{Attribution of Weather and Climate Events}},
url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060847},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Otto2020,
author = {Otto, Friederike E. L. and Harrington, Luke J. and Frame, David and Boyd, Emily and Lauta, Kristian Cedervall and Wehner, Michael and Clarke, Ben and Raju, Emmanuel and Boda, Chad and Hauser, Mathias and James, Rachel A. and Jones, Richard G.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0027.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {E1972--E1979},
title = {{Toward an Inventory of the Impacts of Human-Induced Climate Change}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0027.1},
volume = {101},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Otto2017a,
author = {Otto, Friederike E L and Skeie, Ragnhild B and Fuglestvedt, Jan S and Berntsen, Terje and Allen, Myles R},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3419},
file = {::},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
pages = {757--759},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Assigning historic responsibility for extreme weather events}},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{gmd-10-3979-2017,
abstract = {Abstract. Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land–sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.},
author = {Otto-Bliesner, Bette L and Braconnot, Pascale and Harrison, Sandy P and Lunt, Daniel J and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Albani, Samuel and Bartlein, Patrick J and Capron, Emilie and Carlson, Anders E and Dutton, Andrea and Fischer, Hubertus and Goelzer, Heiko and Govin, Aline and Haywood, Alan and Joos, Fortunat and LeGrande, Allegra N and Lipscomb, William H and Lohmann, Gerrit and Mahowald, Natalie and Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph and Pausata, Francesco S R and Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves and Phipps, Steven J and Renssen, Hans and Zhang, Qiong},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {3979--4003},
title = {{The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/3979/2017/ https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/10/3979/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Owens2017,
author = {Owens, Mathew J. and Lockwood, Mike and Hawkins, Ed and Usoskin, Ilya and Jones, Gareth S. and Barnard, Luke and Schurer, Andrew and Fasullo, John},
doi = {10.1051/swsc/2017034},
issn = {2115-7251},
journal = {Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate},
month = {dec},
pages = {A33},
title = {{The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations}},
url = {http://www.swsc-journal.org/10.1051/swsc/2017034},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Emile-Geay2017; Pages2K2017,
author = {{PAGES 2k Consortium}},
doi = {10.1038/sdata.2017.88},
issn = {2052-4463},
journal = {Scientific Data},
month = {jul},
pages = {170088},
title = {{A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201788},
volume = {4},
year = {2017}
}
@article{PAGES2kConsortium2013,
author = {{PAGES 2k Consortium}},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1797},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {339--346},
title = {{Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1797},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Consortium2019,
abstract = {Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300–1800 ce) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.},
author = {{PAGES 2k Consortium}},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {643--649},
title = {{Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0400-0 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Painter2015,
author = {Painter, James},
doi = {10.7203/metode.85.4179},
issn = {2174-9221},
journal = {M{\`{E}}TODE Science Studies Journal},
month = {jun},
pages = {81--87},
title = {{Disaster, uncertainty, opportunity or risk? Key messages from the television coverage of the IPCC's 2013/2014 reports}},
url = {https://ojs.uv.es/index.php/Metode/article/view/4179},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{tc-8-1577-2014,
author = {Palerme, C and Kay, J E and Genthon, C and L'Ecuyer, T and Wood, N B and Claud, C},
doi = {10.5194/tc-8-1577-2014},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
number = {4},
pages = {1577--1587},
title = {{How much snow falls on the Antarctic ice sheet?}},
url = {https://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1577/2014/},
volume = {8},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Palmer2008,
abstract = {Trustworthy probabilistic projections of regional climate are essential for society to plan for future climate change, and yet, by the nonlinear nature of climate, finite computational models of climate are inherently deficient in their ability to simulate regional climatic variability with complete accuracy. How can we determine whether specific regional climate projections may be untrustworthy in the light of such generic deficiencies? A calibration method is proposed whose basis lies in the emerging notion of seamless prediction. Specifically, calibrations of ensemble-based climate change probabilities are derived from analyses of the statistical reliability of ensemble-based forecast probabilities on seasonal time scales. The method is demonstrated by calibrating probabilistic projections from the multimodel ensembles used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on reliability analyses from the seasonal forecast Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) dataset. The focus in this paper is on climate change projections of regional precipitation, though the method is more general.},
author = {Palmer, T. N. and Doblas-Reyes, F. J. and Weisheimer, A. and Rodwell, M. J.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-89-4-459},
isbn = {0003-0007},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {459--470},
pmid = {24574113},
title = {{Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-89-4-459},
volume = {89},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Palmer2017,
abstract = {Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0--300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993--2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997--2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997--2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0--700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization `shock' over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean ({\{}$\backslash$textpm{\}}1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 {\{}$\backslash$textpm{\}} 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth's surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 {\{}$\backslash$textpm{\}} 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth's energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends---especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.},
author = {Palmer, M D and Roberts, C D and Balmaseda, M and Chang, Y.-S. and Chepurin, G and Ferry, N and Fujii, Y and Good, S A and Guinehut, S and Haines, K and Hernandez, F and K{\"{o}}hl, A and Lee, T and Martin, M J and Masina, S and Masuda, S and Peterson, K A and Storto, A and Toyoda, T and Valdivieso, M and Vernieres, G and Wang, O and Xue, Y},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2801-0},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {909--930},
title = {{Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2801-0},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Palmer2014,
abstract = {We analyse a large number of multi-century pre-industrial control simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate relationships between: net top-of-atmosphere radiation (TOA), globally averaged surface temperature (GST), and globally integrated ocean heat content (OHC) on decadal timescales. Consistent with previous studies, we find that large trends (∼0.3 K dec-1) in GST can arise from internal climate variability and that these trends are generally an unreliable indicator of TOA over the same period. In contrast, trends in total OHC explain 95{\%} or more of the variance in TOA for two-thirds of the models analysed; emphasizing the oceans' role as Earth's primary energy store. Correlation of trends in total system energy (TE ≡ time integrated TOA) against trends in OHC suggests that for most models the ocean becomes the dominant term in the planetary energy budget on a timescale of about 12 months. In the context of the recent pause in global surface temperature rise, we investigate the potential importance of internal climate variability in both TOA and ocean heat rearrangement. The model simulations suggest that both factors can account for O (0.1 W m-2) on decadal timescales and may play an important role in the recently observed trends in GST and 0-700 m (and 0-1800 m) ocean heat uptake. {\textcopyright} 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd.},
author = {Palmer, M. D. and McNeall, D. J.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034016},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate variability,earths energy budget,heat content,surface temperature,topofatmosphere radiation},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {034016},
title = {{Internal variability of Earth's energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034016},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Palmer2019,
abstract = {Although the partial differential equations that describe the physical climate system are deterministic, there is an important reason why the computational representations of these equations should be stochastic: such representations better respect the scaling symmetries of these underlying differential equations, as described in this Perspective. This Perspective also surveys the ways in which introducing stochasticity into the parameterized representations of subgrid processes in comprehensive weather and climate models has improved the skill of forecasts and has reduced systematic model error, notably in simulating persistent flow anomalies. The pertinence of stochasticity is also discussed in the context of the question of how many bits of useful information are contained in the numerical representations of variables, a question that is critical for the design of next-generation climate models. The accuracy of fluid simulation may be further increased if future-generation supercomputer hardware becomes partially stochastic.},
author = {Palmer, T N},
doi = {10.1038/s42254-019-0062-2},
issn = {2522-5820},
journal = {Nature Reviews Physics},
number = {7},
pages = {463--471},
title = {{Stochastic weather and climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-019-0062-2},
volume = {1},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Palmer2019a,
abstract = {Given the slow unfolding of what may become catastrophic changes to Earth's climate, many are understandably distraught by failures of public policy to rise to the magnitude of the challenge. Few in the science community would think to question the scientific response to the unfolding changes. However, is the science community continuing to do its part to the best of its ability? In the domains where we can have the greatest influence, is the scientific community articulating a vision commensurate with the challenges posed by climate change? We think not.},
author = {Palmer, Tim N. and Stevens, Bjorn},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1906691116},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {dec},
number = {49},
pages = {24390--24395},
title = {{The scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/116/49/24390.abstract},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Palmer2021,
author = {Palmer, Matthew D and Domingues, Catia M. and Slangen, A B A and {Boeira Dias}, Fabio},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {044043},
title = {{An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec},
volume = {16},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Pandolfi2018,
author = {Pandolfi, Marco and Alados-Arboledas, Lucas and Alastuey, Andr{\'{e}}s and Andrade, Marcos and Angelov, Christo and Arti{\~{n}}ano, Bego{\~{n}}a and Backman, John and Baltensperger, Urs and Bonasoni, Paolo and Bukowiecki, Nicolas and {Collaud Coen}, Martine and Conil, S{\'{e}}bastien and Coz, Esther and Crenn, Vincent and Dudoitis, Vadimas and Ealo, Marina and Eleftheriadis, Kostas and Favez, Olivier and Fetfatzis, Prodromos and Fiebig, Markus and Flentje, Harald and Ginot, Patrick and Gysel, Martin and Henzing, Bas and Hoffer, Andras and {Holubova Smejkalova}, Adela and Kalapov, Ivo and Kalivitis, Nikos and Kouvarakis, Giorgos and Kristensson, Adam and Kulmala, Markku and Lihavainen, Heikki and Lunder, Chris and Luoma, Krista and Lyamani, Hassan and Marinoni, Angela and Mihalopoulos, Nikos and Moerman, Marcel and Nicolas, Jos{\'{e}} and O{\&}apos;Dowd, Colin and Pet{\"{a}}j{\"{a}}, Tuukka and Petit, Jean-Eudes and Pichon, Jean Marc and Prokopciuk, Nina and Putaud, Jean-Philippe and Rodr{\'{i}}guez, Sergio and Sciare, Jean and Sellegri, Karine and Swietlicki, Erik and Titos, Gloria and Tuch, Thomas and Tunved, Peter and Ulevicius, Vidmantas and Vaishya, Aditya and Vana, Milan and Virkkula, Aki and Vratolis, Stergios and Weingartner, Ernest and Wiedensohler, Alfred and Laj, Paolo},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-7877-2018},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {7877--7911},
title = {{A European aerosol phenomenology – 6: scattering properties of atmospheric aerosol particles from 28 ACTRIS sites}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/7877/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Papagiannopoulou2018,
author = {Papagiannopoulou, C and Miralles, D G and Demuzere, M and Verhoest, N E C and Waegeman, W},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-4139-2018},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {4139--4153},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{Global hydro-climatic biomes identified via multitask learning}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/11/4139/2018/ https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/11/4139/2018/gmd-11-4139-2018.pdf},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Parajuli2016,
author = {Parajuli, Sagar Prasad and Yang, Zong-Liang and Lawrence, David M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.aeolia.2016.02.002},
issn = {18759637},
journal = {Aeolian Research},
month = {jun},
pages = {21--35},
title = {{Diagnostic evaluation of the Community Earth System Model in simulating mineral dust emission with insight into large-scale dust storm mobilization in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1875963716300180},
volume = {21},
year = {2016}
}
@article{ParkE.G.BurrG.SlonoskyV.SieberR.&Podolsky2018,
author = {Park, Eun G. and Burr, Gordon and Slonosky, Victoria and Sieber, Renee and Podolsky, Lori},
doi = {10.1108/JD-10-2017-0150},
issn = {0022-0418},
journal = {Journal of Documentation},
month = {may},
number = {4},
pages = {763--780},
title = {{Data rescue archive weather (DRAW): Preserving the complexity of historical climate data}},
url = {https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JD-10-2017-0150/full/html},
volume = {74},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Parker2013,
abstract = {Abstract Many studies of future climate change take an ensemble modeling approach in which simulations of future conditions are produced with multiple climate models (or model versions), rather than just one. These ensemble studies are of two main types?perturbed-physics and multimodel?which investigate different sources of uncertainty about future climate change. Increasingly, methods are being applied which assign probabilities to future changes in climate on the basis of the set of projections (the ensemble) produced in a perturbed-physics or multimodel study. This has prompted debate over both the appropriate interpretation of ensembles as well as how best to communicate uncertainty about future climate change to decision makers; such communication is a primary impetus for ensemble studies. The intuition persists that agreement among ensemble members about the extent of future climate change warrants increased confidence in the projected changes, but in practice the significance of this robustness is difficult to gauge. Priority topics for future research include how to design ensemble studies that take better account of structural uncertainty, how to weight ensemble members and how to improve the process by which ensemble studies are synthesized with other information in expert assessments. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:213?223. doi: 10.1002/wcc.220 This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture {\textgreater} Ideas and Knowledge Climate Models and Modeling {\textgreater} Knowledge Generation with Models},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.220},
author = {Parker, Wendy S},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.220},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {213--223},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.220},
volume = {4},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Parker2018,
author = {Parker, Wendy S. and Winsberg, Eric},
doi = {10.1007/s13194-017-0180-6},
issn = {1879-4912},
journal = {European Journal for Philosophy of Science},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {125--142},
title = {{Values and evidence: how models make a difference}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13194-017-0180-6},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Parker2009,
abstract = {Lloyd (2009) contends that climate models are confirmed by various instances of fit between their output and observational data. The present paper argues that what these instances of fit might confirm are not climate models themselves, but rather hypotheses about the adequacy of climate models for particular purposes. This required shift in thinking—from confirming climate models to confirming their adequacy-for-purpose—may sound trivial, but it is shown to complicate the evaluation of climate models considerably, both in principle and in practice.},
author = {Parker, Wendy S},
doi = {10.1111/j.1467-8349.2009.00180.x},
issn = {0309-7013},
journal = {Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume},
number = {1},
pages = {233--249},
title = {{Confirmation and adequacy-for-purpose in climate modelling}},
volume = {83},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Parker2015,
abstract = {An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent's uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness . We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet these requirements. The first involves adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the representation of uncertainty, while the second involves failing to take account of the risk of surprises. In connection with the latter, we respond to the objection that it is impossible to account for the risk of genuine surprises. After outlining some steps that both scientists and the bodies who commission uncertainty assessments can take to help avoid these pitfalls, we explain why striving for faithfulness and completeness is important.},
author = {Parker, Wendy S. and Risbey, James S.},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2014.0453},
issn = {1364-503X},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {2055},
pages = {20140453},
title = {{False precision, surprise and improved uncertainty assessment}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2014.0453},
volume = {373},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Parker2020,
abstract = {According to an adequacy-for-purpose view, models should be assessed with respect to their adequacy or fitness for particular purposes. Such a view has been advocated by scientists and philosophers alike. Important details, however, have yet to be spelled out. This article attempts to make progress by addressing three key questions: What does it mean for a model to be adequate-for-purpose? What makes a model adequate-for-purpose? How does assessing a model's adequacy-for-purpose differ from assessing its representational accuracy? In addition, responses are given to some objections that might be raised against an adequacy-for-purpose view.},
author = {Parker, Wendy S},
doi = {10.1086/708691},
journal = {Philosophy of Science},
number = {3},
pages = {457--477},
title = {{Model Evaluation: An Adequacy-for-Purpose View}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1086/708691},
volume = {87},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Parmesan2003,
abstract = {Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.},
author = {Parmesan, Camille and Yohe, G},
doi = {10.1038/nature01286},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
pages = {37--42},
pmid = {12511946},
title = {{A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change}},
volume = {421},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Parmesan2013,
abstract = {There is increasing pressure from policymakers for ecologists to generate more detailed ‘attribution' analysesaimed at quantitatively estimating relative contributions of different driving forces, including anthropogenicclimate change (ACC), to observed biological changes. Here, we argue that this approach is not productivefor ecological studies. Global meta-analyses of diverse species, regions and ecosystems have already givenus ‘very high confidence' [sensu Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)] that ACC has impactedwild species in a general sense. Further, for well-studied species or systems, synthesis of experiments andmodels with long-term observations has given us similarly high confidence that they have been impacted byregional climate change (regardless of its cause). However, the role of greenhouse gases in driving theseimpacts has not been estimated quantitatively. Should this be an ecological research priority? We argue thatdevelopment of quantitative ecological models for this purpose faces several impediments, particularly theexistence of strong, non-additive interactions among different external factors. However, even with currentunderstanding of impacts of global warming, there are myriad climate change adaptation options alreadydeveloped in the literature that could be, and in fact are being, implemented now.},
author = {Parmesan, Camille and Burrows, Michael T and Duarte, Carlos M and Poloczanska, Elvira S and Richardson, Anthony J and Schoeman, David S and Singer, Michael C},
doi = {10.1111/ele.12098},
journal = {Ecology Letters},
keywords = {16,2013,58,71,anthropogenic climate change,biodiversity,biological projections,climate change,climate change attribu-,conservation planning,ecological modelling,ecology letters,global warming,ipcc,tion},
pages = {58--71},
title = {{Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research}},
volume = {16},
year = {2013}
}
@book{Parson2003,
address = {Oxford, UK},
author = {Parson, Edward A.},
doi = {10.1093/0195155491.001.0001},
isbn = {978-0195155495},
pages = {400},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {{Protecting the Ozone Layer: Science and Strategy}},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Parsons2019,
abstract = {Abstract Despite the importance of interdecadal climate variability, we have a limited understanding of which geographic regions are associated with global temperature variability at these timescales. The instrumental record tends to be too short to develop sample statistics to study interdecadal climate variability, and state-of-the-art climate models tend to disagree about which locations most strongly influence global mean interdecadal temperature variability. Here we use a new paleoclimate data assimilation product, the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), to examine where local variability is associated with global mean temperature variability at interdecadal timescales. The LMR framework uses an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation approach to combine the latest paleoclimate data and state-of-the-art model data to generate annually resolved field reconstructions of surface temperature, which allow us to explore the timing and dynamics of pre-instrumental climate variability in new ways. The LMR consistently shows that the mid- to high-latitude north Pacific, and the high-latitude North Atlantic tend to lead global temperature variability on interdecadal timescales. These findings have important implications for understanding the dynamics of low-frequency climate variability in the pre-industrial era.},
author = {Parsons, L.A. and Hakim, G.J.},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD030426},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {sep},
number = {17-18},
pages = {9905--9917},
title = {{Local Regions Associated With Interdecadal Global Temperature Variability in the Last Millennium Reanalysis and CMIP5 Models}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030426},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{gmd-2019-98,
author = {Pascoe, Charlotte and Lawrence, Bryan N and Guilyardi, Eric and Juckes, Martin and Taylor, Karl E},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-2149-2020},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {2149--2167},
title = {{Documenting numerical experiments in support of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/gmd-2019-98/ https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/2149/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{PastInterglacialsWorkingGroupofPAGES2016,
author = {{Past Interglacials Working Group of PAGES}},
doi = {10.1002/2015RG000482},
issn = {87551209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {162--219},
title = {{Interglacials of the last 800,000 years}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015RG000482},
volume = {54},
year = {2016}
}
@article{PastorelloG.Z.;PapaleD;ChuH;TrottaC;AgarwalD.A;CanforaE;BaldocchiD.D;Torn2017,
abstract = {FLUXNET15, the latest update of the longest global record of ecosystem carbon, water, and energy fluxes, features improved data quality, new data products, and more open data sharing policies.},
author = {Pastorello, G. and Papale, D and Chu, H and Trotta, C and Agarwal, D.A and Canfora, E and Baldocchi, D.D and Torn, M.S.},
doi = {10.1029/2017EO071597},
issn = {2324-9250},
journal = {Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union},
month = {apr},
title = {{A New Data Set to Keep a Sharper Eye on Land-Air Exchanges}},
url = {https://eos.org/project-updates/a-new-data-set-to-keep-a-sharper-eye-on-land-air-exchanges},
volume = {98},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pattyn2018a,
author = {Pattyn, Frank},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {2728},
title = {{The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05003-z},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2016MS000737,
abstract = {Abstract Nitrogen (N2) fixation is a major source of bioavailable nitrogen to the euphotic zone, thereby exerting an important control on ocean biogeochemical cycling. This paper presents the incorporation of prognostic N2 fixers into the HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model (HAMOCC), a component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Growth dynamics of N2 fixers in the model are based on physiological characteristics of the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium. The applied temperature dependency confines diazotrophic growth and N2 fixation to the tropical and subtropical ocean roughly between 40°S and 40°N. Simulated large-scale spatial patterns compare well with observations, and the global N2 fixation rate of 135.6 Tg N yr−1 is within the range of current estimates. The vertical distribution of N2 fixation also matches well the observations, with a major fraction of about 85{\%} occurring in the upper 20 m. The observed seasonal variability at the stations BATS and ALOHA is reasonably reproduced, with highest fixation rates in northern summer/fall. Iron limitation was found to be an important factor in controlling the simulated distribution of N2 fixation, especially in the Pacific Ocean. The new model component considerably improves the representation of present-day N2 fixation in HAMOCC. It provides the basis for further studies on the role of diazotrophs in global biogeochemical cycles, as well as on the response of N2 fixation to changing environmental conditions.},
author = {Paulsen, Hanna and Ilyina, Tatiana and Six, Katharina D and Stemmler, Irene},
doi = {10.1002/2016MS000737},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {global ocean biogeochemical model,nitrogen fixation,ocean biogeochemistry,phytoplankton},
number = {1},
pages = {438--464},
title = {{Incorporating a prognostic representation of marine nitrogen fixers into the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016MS000737},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pearce2019,
author = {Pearce, Warren and Niederer, Sabine and {\"{O}}zkula, Suay Melisa and {S{\'{a}}nchez Querub{\'{i}}n}, Natalia},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.569},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {e569},
title = {{The social media life of climate change: Platforms, publics, and future imaginaries}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.569},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Pearce2014,
author = {Pearce, Warren and Holmberg, Kim and Hellsten, Iina and Nerlich, Brigitte},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0094785},
editor = {Amblard, Frederic},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {e94785},
title = {{Climate Change on Twitter: Topics, Communities and Conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 Report}},
url = {http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0094785},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Pedersen2020,
abstract = {Long-term developments in carbon dioxide emissions have tracked the middle of projected emission scenario ranges over the past three decades. If this tendency continues, it seems increasingly less likely that future emissions will follow current high-emission scenarios. However, in the past, periods of slow and fast global emissions growth was observed, which have led to previous critiques of scenarios being too low or too high. In the light of such unpredictability and since scenarios are meant to explore plausible futures, we here argue that a broad range of emission scenarios continue to be considered input in scenario-based analyses of future climate change. Furthermore, we find substantial regional differences in emissions trends. Territorial emissions in OECD countries fall on the low side of emission scenario ranges, whereas non-OECD territorial emissions fell closer to the medium or high-end. Since non-OECD emissions will become increasingly important, we recommend further exploring the relationships between regional and global emissions to support scenario assumptions and climate policymaking.},
author = {Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Apar{\'{i}}cio, Bruno A. and Swart, Rob and Gupta, Joyeeta and Santos, Filipe Duarte},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-020-00045-y},
issn = {2662-4435},
journal = {Communications Earth {\&} Environment},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {41},
title = {{Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00045-y},
volume = {1},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pedro2018,
author = {Pedro, Joel B. and Jochum, Markus and Buizert, Christo and He, Feng and Barker, Stephen and Rasmussen, Sune O.},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.05.005},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
month = {jul},
pages = {27--46},
title = {{Beyond the bipolar seesaw: Toward a process understanding of interhemispheric coupling}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379117310351},
volume = {192},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Peel2007,
abstract = {Although now over 100 years old, the classification$\backslash$nof climate originally formulated by Wladimir K¨oppen$\backslash$nand modified by his collaborators and successors, is still in$\backslash$nwidespread use. It is widely used in teaching school and$\backslash$nundergraduate courses on climate. It is also still in regular$\backslash$nuse by researchers across a range of disciplines as a basis$\backslash$nfor climatic regionalisation of variables and for assessing the$\backslash$noutput of global climate models. Here we have produced a$\backslash$nnew global map of climate using the K¨oppen-Geiger system$\backslash$nbased on a large global data set of long-term monthly precipitation$\backslash$nand temperature station time series. Climatic variables$\backslash$nused in the K¨oppen-Geiger system were calculated at$\backslash$neach station and interpolated between stations using a twodimensional$\backslash$n(latitude and longitude) thin-plate spline with$\backslash$ntension onto a 0.1×0.1 grid for each continent. We discuss$\backslash$nsome problems in dealing with sites that are not uniquely$\backslash$nclassified into one climate type by the K¨oppen-Geiger system$\backslash$nand assess the outcomes on a continent by continent$\backslash$nbasis. Globally the most common climate type by land$\backslash$narea is BWh (14.2{\%}, Hot desert) followed by Aw (11.5{\%},$\backslash$nTropical savannah). The updated world K¨oppen-Geiger climate$\backslash$nmap is freely available electronically in the Supplementary$\backslash$nMaterial Section (http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/$\backslash$n11/1633/2007/hess-11-1633-2007-supplement.zip).},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {hal-00298818},
author = {Peel, M C and Finlayson, B L and McMahon, T. A.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-11-1633-2007},
eprint = {hal-00298818},
isbn = {09412948},
issn = {16077938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {5},
pages = {1633--1644},
pmid = {2614},
title = {{Updated world map of the K{\"{o}}ppen-Geiger climate classification}},
volume = {11},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Peel2018,
abstract = {In 2015, a Pakistani court in the case of Leghari v. Federation of Pakistan made history by accepting arguments that governmental failures to address climate change adequately violated petitioners' rights. This case forms part of an emerging body of pending or decided climate change-related lawsuits that incorporate rights-based arguments in several countries, including the Netherlands, the Philippines, Austria, South Africa, and the United States (US). These decisions align with efforts to recognize the human rights dimensions of climate change, which received important endorsement in the Paris Agreement. The decisions also represent a significant milestone in climate change litigation. Although there have been hundreds of climate-based cases around the world over the past two decades – especially in the US – past and much of the ongoing litigation focuses primarily on statutory interpretation avenues. Previous efforts to bring human rights cases have also failed to achieve formal success. The new cases demonstrate an increasing trend for petitioners to employ rights claims in climate change lawsuits, as well as a growing receptivity of courts to this framing. This ‘rights turn' could serve as a model or inspiration for rights-based litigation in other jurisdictions, especially those with similarly structured law and court access.},
author = {Peel, Jacqueline and Osofsky, Hari M.},
doi = {10.1017/S2047102517000292},
issn = {2047-1025},
journal = {Transnational Environmental Law},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {37--67},
title = {{A Rights Turn in Climate Change Litigation?}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2047102517000292/type/journal{\_}article},
volume = {7},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Pendergrass2017,
author = {Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Deser, Clara},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0684.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {5985--6003},
title = {{Climatological Characteristics of Typical Daily Precipitation}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0684.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{10.3389/fmars.2019.00391,
abstract = {Developments in observing system technologies and ocean data assimilation (DA) are symbiotic. New observation types lead to new DA methods and new DA methods, such as coupled DA, can change the value of existing observations or indicate where new observations can have greater utility for monitoring and prediction. Practitioners of DA are encouraged to make better use of observations that are already available, for example, taking advantage of strongly coupled DA so that ocean observations can be used to improve atmospheric analyses and vice versa. Ocean reanalyses are useful for the analysis of climate as well as the initialization of operational long-range prediction models. There are many remaining challenges for ocean reanalyses due to biases and abrupt changes in the ocean-observing system throughout its history, the presence of biases and drifts in models, and the simplifying assumptions made in DA solution methods. From a governance point of view, more support is needed to bring the ocean-observing and DA communities together. For prediction applications, there is wide agreement that protocols are needed for rapid communication of ocean-observing data on numerical weather prediction (NWP) timescales. There is potential for new observation types to enhance the observing system by supporting prediction on multiple timescales, ranging from the typical timescale of NWP, covering hours to weeks, out to multiple decades. Better communication between DA and observation communities is encouraged in order to allow operational prediction centers the ability to provide guidance for the design of a sustained and adaptive observing network.},
author = {Penny, Stephen G and Akella, Santha and Balmaseda, Magdalena A and Browne, Philip and Carton, James A and Chevallier, Matthieu and Counillon, Francois and Domingues, Catia and Frolov, Sergey and Heimbach, Patrick and Hogan, Patrick and Hoteit, Ibrahim and Iovino, Doroteaciro and Laloyaux, Patrick and Martin, Matthew J and Masina, Simona and Moore, Andrew M and de Rosnay, Patricia and Schepers, Dinand and Sloyan, Bernadette M and Storto, Andrea and Subramanian, Aneesh and Nam, SungHyun and Vitart, Frederic and Yang, Chunxue and Fujii, Yosuke and Zuo, Hao and O'Kane, Terry and Sandery, Paul and Moore, Thomas and Chapman, Christopher C},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00391},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {391},
title = {{Observational Needs for Improving Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis, S2S Prediction, and Decadal Prediction}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00391},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Pereira277,
author = {Pereira, H M and Ferrier, S and Walters, M and Geller, G N and Jongman, R H G and Scholes, R J and Bruford, M W and Brummitt, N and Butchart, S H M and Cardoso, A C and Coops, N C and Dulloo, E and Faith, D P and Freyhof, J and Gregory, R D and Heip, C and H{\"{o}}ft, R and Hurtt, G and Jetz, W and Karp, D S and McGeoch, M A and Obura, D and Onoda, Y and Pettorelli, N and Reyers, B and Sayre, R and Scharlemann, J P W and Stuart, S N and Turak, E and Walpole, M and Wegmann, M},
doi = {10.1126/science.1229931},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
number = {6117},
pages = {277--278},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Essential Biodiversity Variables}},
url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/339/6117/277},
volume = {339},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Permana2019,
abstract = {The glaciers near Puncak Jaya, Papua, Indonesia, the last tropical glaciers in the Western Pacific Warm Pool, have recently undergone a rapid pace of loss of ice cover and a 5.4-fold increase in the rate of thinning, augmented by the strong 2015–2016 El Ni{\~{n}}o. Ice cores recovered in 2010 record approximately the past half-century of tropical Pacific climate variability and reveal the effects of El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It appears that the regional warming has passed a threshold such that the next very strong ENSO event, which typically exacerbates the rising freezing levels and associated feedbacks such as reduced snow cover, could lead to the demise of the only remaining tropical glaciers between the Himalayas and the Andes.The glaciers near Puncak Jaya in Papua, Indonesia, the highest peak between the Himalayas and the Andes, are the last remaining tropical glaciers in the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Here, we report the recent, rapid retreat of the glaciers near Puncak Jaya by quantifying the loss of ice coverage and reduction of ice thickness over the last 8 y. Photographs and measurements of a 30-m accumulation stake anchored to bedrock on the summit of one of these glaciers document a rapid pace in the loss of ice cover and a ∼5.4-fold increase in the thinning rate, which was augmented by the strong 2015–2016 El Ni{\~{n}}o. At the current rate of ice loss, these glaciers will likely disappear within the next decade. To further understand the mechanisms driving the observed retreat of these glaciers, 2 ∼32-m-long ice cores to bedrock recovered in mid-2010 are used to reconstruct the tropical Pacific climate variability over approximately the past half-century on a quasi-interannual timescale. The ice core oxygen isotopic ratios show a significant positive linear trend since 1964 CE (0.018 ± 0.008‰ per year; P {\&}lt; 0.03) and also suggest that the glaciers' retreat is augmented by El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation processes, such as convection and warming of the atmosphere and sea surface. These Papua glaciers provide the only tropical records of ice core-derived climate variability for the WPWP.},
author = {Permana, Donaldi S and Thompson, Lonnie G and Mosley-Thompson, Ellen and Davis, Mary E and Lin, Ping-Nan and Nicolas, Julien P and Bolzan, John F and Bird, Broxton W and Mikhalenko, Vladimir N and Gabrielli, Paolo and Zagorodnov, Victor and Mountain, Keith R and Schotterer, Ulrich and Hanggoro, Wido and Habibie, Muhammad N and Kaize, Yohanes and Gunawan, Dodo and Setyadi, Gesang and Susanto, Raden D and Fern{\'{a}}ndez, Alfonso and Mark, Bryan G},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1822037116},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {dec},
number = {52},
pages = {26382--26388},
title = {{Disappearance of the last tropical glaciers in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (Papua, Indonesia) appears imminent}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/116/52/26382.abstract},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@article{petersen2019 doi:10.1029/2018MS001373,
abstract = {Abstract The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a new coupled Earth system model sponsored by the U.S Department of Energy. Here we present E3SM global simulations using active ocean and sea ice that are driven by the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments II (CORE-II) interannual atmospheric forcing data set. The E3SM ocean and sea ice components are MPAS-Ocean and MPAS-Seaice, which use the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework and run on unstructured horizontal meshes. For this study, grid cells vary from 30 to 60 km for the low-resolution mesh and 6 to 18 km at high resolution. The vertical grid is a structured z-star coordinate and uses 60 and 80 layers for low and high resolution, respectively. The lower-resolution simulation was run for five CORE cycles (310 years) with little drift in sea surface temperature (SST) or heat content. The meridional heat transport (MHT) is within observational range, while the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N is low compared to observations. The largest temperature biases occur in the Labrador Sea and western boundary currents (WBCs), and the mixed layer is deeper than observations at northern high latitudes in the winter months. In the Antarctic, maximum mixed layer depths (MLD) compare well with observations, but the spatial MLD pattern is shifted relative to observations. Sea ice extent, volume, and concentration agree well with observations. At high resolution, the sea surface height compares well with satellite observations in mean and variability.},
author = {Petersen, Mark R and Asay-Davis, Xylar S and Berres, Anne S and Chen, Qingshan and Feige, Nils and Hoffman, Matthew J and Jacobsen, Douglas W and Jones, Philip W and Maltrud, Mathew E and Price, Stephen F and Ringler, Todd D and Streletz, Gregory J and Turner, Adrian K and {Van Roekel}, Luke P and Veneziani, Milena and Wolfe, Jonathan D and Wolfram, Phillip J and Woodring, Jonathan L},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001373},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {climate,modeling,ocean,sea ice},
number = {5},
pages = {1438--1458},
title = {{An Evaluation of the Ocean and Sea Ice Climate of E3SM Using MPAS and Interannual CORE-II Forcing}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018MS001373},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Peterson2008,
abstract = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
annote = {Times cited: 1},
author = {Peterson, Thomas C and Connolley, William M and Fleck, John},
doi = {10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1325--1338},
title = {{The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Consensus}},
volume = {89},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Petit1999,
abstract = {The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial–interglacial cycles. The succession of changes through each climate cycle and termination was similar, and atmospheric and climate properties oscillated between stable bounds. Interglacial periods differed in temporal evolution and duration. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane correlate well with Antarctic air-temperature throughout the record. Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases seem to have been unprecedented during the past 420,000 years.},
author = {Petit, J R and Jouzel, J and Raynaud, D and Barkov, N I and Barnola, J.-M. and Basile, I and Bender, M and Chappellaz, J and Davis, M and Delaygue, G and Delmotte, M and Kotlyakov, V M and Legrand, M and Lipenkov, V Y and Lorius, C and P{\'{E}}pin, L and Ritz, C and Saltzman, E and Stievenard, M},
doi = {10.1038/20859},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {6735},
pages = {429--436},
title = {{Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/20859},
volume = {399},
year = {1999}
}
@article{Petzold2015,
author = {Petzold, Andreas and Thouret, Valerie and Gerbig, Christoph and Zahn, Andreas and Brenninkmeijer, Carl A M and Gallagher, Martin and Hermann, Markus and Pontaud, Marc and Ziereis, Helmut and Boulanger, Damien and Marshall, Julia and N{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}lec, Philippe and Smit, Herman G J and Friess, Udo and Flaud, Jean-Marie and Wahner, Andreas and Cammas, Jean-Pierre and Volz-Thomas, Andreas and TEAM, IAGOS},
doi = {10.3402/tellusb.v67.28452},
issn = {null},
journal = {Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {28452},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Global-scale atmosphere monitoring by in-service aircraft – current achievements and future prospects of the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v67.28452},
volume = {67},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Pfeffer2014,
abstract = {The Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) is a globally complete collection of digital outlines of glaciers, excluding the ice sheets, developed to meet the needs of the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for estimates of past and future mass balance. The RGI was created with limited resources in a short period. Priority was given to completeness of coverage, but a limited, uniform set of attributes is attached to each of the {\~{}}198 000 glaciers in its latest version, 3.2. Satellite imagery from 1999–2010 provided most of the outlines. Their total extent is estimated as 726 800 ± 34 000 km 2 . The uncertainty, about ±5{\%}, is derived from careful single-glacier and basin-scale uncertainty estimates and comparisons with inventories that were not sources for the RGI. The main contributors to uncertainty are probably misinterpretation of seasonal snow cover and debris cover. These errors appear not to be normally distributed, and quantifying them reliably is an unsolved problem. Combined with digital elevation models, the RGI glacier outlines yield hypsometries that can be combined with atmospheric data or model outputs for analysis of the impacts of climatic change on glaciers. The RGI has already proved its value in the generation of significantly improved aggregate estimates of glacier mass changes and total volume, and thus actual and potential contributions to sea-level rise.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {Pfeffer2014},
author = {Pfeffer, W. Tad and Arendt, Anthony A. and Bliss, Andrew and Bolch, Tobias and Cogley, J. Graham and Gardner, Alex S. and Hagen, Jon-Ove and Hock, Regine and Kaser, Georg and Kienholz, Christian and Miles, Evan S. and Moholdt, Geir and M{\"{o}}lg, Nico and Paul, Frank and Radi{\'{c}}, Valentina and Rastner, Philipp and Raup, Bruce H. and Rich, Justin and Sharp, Martin J.},
doi = {10.3189/2014JoG13J176},
eprint = {Pfeffer2014},
isbn = {9788578110796},
issn = {0022-1430},
journal = {Journal of Glaciology},
keywords = {Antarctic glaciology,Arctic glaciology,Glacier delineation,Glacier mapping,Remote sensing,Tropical glaciology},
month = {jul},
number = {221},
pages = {537--552},
title = {{The Randolph Glacier Inventory: a globally complete inventory of glaciers}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S002214300020600X/type/journal{\_}article},
volume = {60},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Pfister2017,
author = {Pfister, Patrik L. and Stocker, Thomas F.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075457},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {10643--10653},
title = {{State-Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL075457},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pfister2018,
author = {Pfister, Patrik L and Stocker, Thomas F},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaebae},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {124024},
title = {{The realized warming fraction: a multi-model sensitivity study}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=12/a=124024?key=crossref.324680d848cba020947fabed5a3f2057},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Pfister2016,
author = {Pfister, Patrik L and Stocker, Thomas F},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014010},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {014010},
title = {{Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=1/a=014010?key=crossref.3d965160120c9ce6bb88d77c52150aae},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Pfleiderer2018,
abstract = {International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2°C for a warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and an about 10{\%} increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.},
author = {Pfleiderer, Peter and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Mengel, Matthias and Rogelj, Joeri},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac319},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {064015},
title = {{Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aac319},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Philip2020,
abstract = {Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on the effect of global warming on recent extreme events. Many “event attribution” studies have now been performed, a sizeable fraction even within a few weeks of the event, to increase the usefulness of the results. In doing these analyses, it has become apparent that the attribution itself is only one step of an extended process that leads from the observation of an extreme event to a successfully communicated attribution statement. In this paper we detail the protocol that was developed by the World Weather Attribution group over the course of the last 4 years and about two dozen rapid and slow attribution studies covering warm, cold, wet, dry, and stormy extremes. It starts from the choice of which events to analyse and proceeds with the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis and ends with the communication procedures. This article documents this protocol. It is hoped that our protocol will be useful in designing future event attribution studies and as a starting point of a protocol for an operational attribution service.},
author = {Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Otto, Friederike and Vautard, Robert and van der Wiel, Karin and King, Andrew and Lott, Fraser and Arrighi, Julie and Singh, Roop and van Aalst, Maarten},
doi = {10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020},
issn = {23643587},
journal = {Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography},
number = {2},
pages = {177--203},
title = {{A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses}},
volume = {6},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Phillips2004,
author = {Phillips, Thomas J. and Potter, Gerald L. and Williamson, David L. and Cederwall, Richard T. and Boyle, James S. and Fiorino, Michael and Hnilo, Justin J. and Olson, Jerry G. and Xie, Shaocheng and Yio, J. John},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-85-12-1903},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1903--1916},
title = {{Evaluating Parameterizations in General Circulation Models: Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-85-12-1903},
volume = {85},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Pielke2008,
author = {Pielke, Roger and Wigley, Tom and Green, Christopher},
doi = {10.1038/452531a},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {apr},
number = {7187},
pages = {531--532},
title = {{Dangerous assumptions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/452531a},
volume = {452},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Pincus2016,
abstract = {Abstract. The phrasing of the first of three questions motivating CMIP6 – “How does the Earth system respond to forcing?” – suggests that forcing is always well-known, yet the radiative forcing to which this question refers has historically been uncertain in coordinated experiments even as understanding of how best to infer radiative forcing has evolved. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) endorsed by CMIP6 seeks to provide a foundation for answering the question through three related activities: (i) accurate characterization of the effective radiative forcing relative to a near-preindustrial baseline and careful diagnosis of the components of this forcing; (ii) assessment of the absolute accuracy of clear-sky radiative transfer parameterizations against reference models on the global scales relevant for climate modeling; and (iii) identification of robust model responses to tightly specified aerosol radiative forcing from 1850 to present. Complete characterization of effective radiative forcing can be accomplished with 180 years (Tier 1) of atmosphere-only simulation using a sea-surface temperature and sea ice concentration climatology derived from the host model's preindustrial control simulation. Assessment of parameterization error requires trivial amounts of computation but the development of small amounts of infrastructure: new, spectrally detailed diagnostic output requested as two snapshots at present-day and preindustrial conditions, and results from the model's radiation code applied to specified atmospheric conditions. The search for robust responses to aerosol changes relies on the CMIP6 specification of anthropogenic aerosol properties; models using this specification can contribute to RFMIP with no additional simulation, while those using a full aerosol model are requested to perform at least one and up to four 165-year coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations at Tier 1.},
author = {Pincus, Robert and Forster, Piers M. and Stevens, Bjorn},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3447-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3447--3460},
title = {{The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3447/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Planton2021,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Planton, Yann Y and Guilyardi, Eric and Wittenberg, Andrew T and Lee, Jiwoo and Gleckler, Peter J and Bayr, Tobias and McGregor, Shayne and McPhaden, Michael J and Power, Scott and Roehrig, Romain and Vialard, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Voldoire, Aurore},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0337.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
language = {English},
number = {2},
pages = {E193--E217},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Evaluating Climate Models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/2/BAMS-D-19-0337.1.xml},
volume = {102},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Plass1961,
author = {Plass, Gilbert N.},
doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.1961.tb50025.x},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
number = {1},
pages = {61--71},
title = {{The Influence of Infrared Absorptive Molecules on the Climate}},
volume = {95},
year = {1961}
}
@article{Plass1956,
annote = {Times cited: 17},
author = {Plass, Gilbert N},
doi = {10.1119/1.1934233},
journal = {American Journal of Physics},
number = {5},
pages = {376--387},
publisher = {AAPT},
title = {{Effect of Carbon Dioxide Variations on Climate}},
url = {http://link.aip.org/link/?AJPIAS/24/376/1},
volume = {24},
year = {1956}
}
@article{Plattner2008,
author = {Plattner, G.-K. and Knutti, R. and Joos, F. and Stocker, T. F. and von Bloh, W. and Brovkin, V. and Cameron, D. and Driesschaert, E. and Dutkiewicz, S. and Eby, M. and Edwards, N. R. and Fichefet, T. and Hargreaves, J. C. and Jones, C. D. and Loutre, M. F. and Matthews, H. D. and Mouchet, A. and M{\"{u}}ller, S. A. and Nawrath, S. and Price, A. and Sokolov, A. and Strassmann, K. M. and Weaver, A. J.},
doi = {10.1175/2007JCLI1905.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {2721--2751},
title = {{Long-Term Climate Commitments Projected with Climate–Carbon Cycle Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2007JCLI1905.1},
volume = {21},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Poli2016,
abstract = {AbstractThe ECMWF twentieth century reanalysis (ERA-20C; 1900–2010) assimilates surface pressure and marine wind observations. The reanalysis is single-member, and the background errors are spatiotemporally varying, derived from an ensemble. The atmospheric general circulation model uses the same configuration as the control member of the ERA-20CM ensemble, forced by observationally based analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice cover, atmospheric composition changes, and solar forcing. The resulting climate trend estimations resemble ERA-20CM for temperature and the water cycle. The ERA-20C water cycle features stable precipitation minus evaporation global averages and no spurious jumps or trends. The assimilation of observations adds realism on synoptic time scales as compared to ERA-20CM in regions that are sufficiently well observed. Comparing to nighttime ship observations, ERA-20C air temperatures are 1 K colder. Generally, the synoptic quality of the product and the agreement in terms of climat...},
author = {Poli, Paul and Hersbach, Hans and Dee, Dick P. and Berrisford, Paul and Simmons, Adrian J. and Vitart, Fr{\"{i}}¿½d{\"{i}}¿½ric and Laloyaux, Patrick and Tan, David G.H. and Peubey, Carole and Th{\"{i}}¿½paut, Jean No{\"{i}}¿½l and Tr{\"{i}}¿½molet, Yannick and H{\"{i}}¿½lm, El{\"{i}}¿½as V. and Bonavita, Massimo and Isaksen, Lars and Fisher, Michael},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0556.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Data assimilation,Interannual variability,Models and modeling,Reanalysis data,Variability},
number = {11},
pages = {4083--4097},
title = {{ERA-20C: An atmospheric reanalysis of the twentieth century}},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Poloczanska2013a,
abstract = {Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations, taxonomic groups and/or biological responses. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a meta-database of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81-83{\%} of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. Of the species responding to climate change, rates of distribution shifts were, on average, consistent with those required to track ocean surface temperature changes. Conversely, we did not find a relationship between regional shifts in spring phenology and the seasonality of temperature. Rates of observed shifts in species' distributions and phenology are comparable to, or greater, than those for terrestrial systems. {\textcopyright} 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved .},
author = {Poloczanska, Elvira S. and Brown, Christopher J. and Sydeman, William J. and Kiessling, Wolfgang and Schoeman, David S. and Moore, Pippa J. and Brander, Keith and Bruno, John F. and Buckley, Lauren B. and Burrows, Michael T. and Duarte, Carlos M. and Halpern, Benjamin S. and Holding, Johnna and Kappel, Carrie V. and O'Connor, Mary I. and Pandolfi, John M. and Parmesan, Camille and Schwing, Franklin and Thompson, Sarah Ann and Richardson, Anthony J.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1958},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {10},
pages = {919--925},
title = {{Global imprint of climate change on marine life}},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{doi:10.1111/gcb.13988,
abstract = {Abstract As the applications of Earth system models (ESMs) move from general climate projections toward questions of mitigation and adaptation, the inclusion of land management practices in these models becomes crucial. We carried out a survey among modeling groups to show an evolution from models able only to deal with land-cover change to more sophisticated approaches that allow also for the partial integration of land management changes. For the longer term a comprehensive land management representation can be anticipated for all major models. To guide the prioritization of implementation, we evaluate ten land management practices—forestry harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, crop harvest, crop species selection, irrigation, wetland drainage, fertilization, tillage, and fire—for (1) their importance on the Earth system, (2) the possibility of implementing them in state-of-the-art ESMs, and (3) availability of required input data. Matching these criteria, we identify “low-hanging fruits” for the inclusion in ESMs, such as basic implementations of crop and forestry harvest and fertilization. We also identify research requirements for specific communities to address the remaining land management practices. Data availability severely hampers modeling the most extensive land management practice, grazing and mowing harvest, and is a limiting factor for a comprehensive implementation of most other practices. Inadequate process understanding hampers even a basic assessment of crop species selection and tillage effects. The need for multiple advanced model structures will be the challenge for a comprehensive implementation of most practices but considerable synergy can be gained using the same structures for different practices. A continuous and closer collaboration of the modeling, Earth observation, and land system science communities is thus required to achieve the inclusion of land management in ESMs.},
author = {Pongratz, Julia and Dolman, Han and Don, Axel and Erb, Karl-Heinz and Fuchs, Richard and Herold, Martin and Jones, Chris and Kuemmerle, Tobias and Luyssaert, Sebastiaan and Meyfroidt, Patrick and Naudts, Kim},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13988},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Earth observations,Earth system models,climate,croplands,forestry,grazing,land management,land use},
number = {4},
pages = {1470--1487},
title = {{Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.13988},
volume = {24},
year = {2018}
}
@book{Popper1959,
address = {London, UK},
author = {Popper, Sir Karl R},
pages = {480},
publisher = {Hutchinson {\&} Co.},
title = {{The Logic of Scientific Discovery}},
year = {1959}
}
@misc{Porter2018,
author = {Porter, Claire and Morin, Paul and Howat, Ian and Noh, Myoung-Jon and Bates, Brian and Peterman, Kenneth and Keesey, Scott and Schlenk, Matthew and Gardiner, Judith and Tomko, Karen and Willis, Michael and Kelleher, Cole and Cloutier, Michael and Husby, Eric and Foga, Steven and Nakamura, Hitomi and Platson, Melisa and {Wethington, Michael}, Jr. and Williamson, Cathleen and Bauer, Gregory and Enos, Jeremy and Arnold, Galen and Kramer, William and Becker, Peter and Doshi, Abhijit and D'Souza, Cristelle and Cummens, Pat and Laurier, Fabien and Bojesen, Mikkel},
doi = {10.7910/DVN/OHHUKH},
publisher = {Harvard Dataverse},
title = {{ArcticDEM V1}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OHHUKH},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Porter2017,
author = {Porter, James J. and Dessai, Suraje},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2017.07.004},
issn = {14629011},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Policy},
month = {nov},
pages = {9--14},
title = {{Mini-me: Why do climate scientists' misunderstand users and their needs?}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901116308875},
volume = {77},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Prigent2020a,
abstract = {Abstract A method has been developed to extend the Global Inundation Estimate from Multiple Satellites (GIEMS). The method presented here is based on retrieval principals similar to GIEMS but with an updated estimation of microwave emissivity in order to be less dependent on ancillary data and with some changes to the final surface water estimation to correct a known overestimation over low vegetation areas. The new methodology, GIEMS-2, provides monthly estimates of surface water extent, including open water, wetlands, or rice paddies, and it has been applied to the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder intercalibrated observations to produce a global data record of surface water extent from 1992 to 2015, on an equal area grid of 0.25° ? 0.25° at the equator (?25 km). The time series have been thoroughly evaluated: they are seamless and do not show any obvious artifact related to changes in satellite instrumentation over the ?25 years. Comparisons with precipitation estimates show good agreement, displaying expected patterns related to surface conditions and precipitation regimes. The temporal variability of basin-averaged estimates has also been compared with altimeter river height, showing a reasonable agreement. Production will be continued up to current time as soon as the observations become available, with efforts to improve the spatial and temporal resolutions of the estimates currently underway.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030711},
author = {Prigent, C and Jimenez, C and Bousquet, P},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD030711},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {remote sensing,surface water,wetlands},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {e2019JD030711},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Satellite-Derived Global Surface Water Extent and Dynamics Over the Last 25 Years (GIEMS-2)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030711},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pulliainen2020,
abstract = {Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover1–3. These changes in snow cover affect Earth's climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere4–6. In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking7–9. Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980–2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 ± 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40° N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433–3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846–3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)—a reduction in uncertainty from 33{\%} to 7.4{\%}. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia; both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth's energy, water and carbon budgets.},
author = {Pulliainen, Jouni and Luojus, Kari and Derksen, Chris and Mudryk, Lawrence and Lemmetyinen, Juha and Salminen, Miia and Ikonen, Jaakko and Takala, Matias and Cohen, Juval and Smolander, Tuomo and Norberg, Johannes},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2258-0},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7808},
pages = {294--298},
title = {{Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2258-0},
volume = {581},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Rahmstorf2007,
author = {Rahmstorf, S. and Cazenave, A. and Church, J. A. and Hansen, J. E. and Keeling, R. F. and Parker, D. E. and Somerville, R. C. J.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1136843},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {may},
number = {5825},
pages = {709--709},
title = {{Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1136843},
volume = {316},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Rahmstorf2012,
author = {Rahmstorf, Stefan and Foster, Grant and Cazenave, Anny},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {044035},
title = {{Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/7/i=4/a=044035?key=crossref.c8d193b66d94e8b3e9454779b909f216},
volume = {7},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Rahmstorf2005,
abstract = {We present results from an intercomparison of 11 different climate models of intermediate complexity, in which the North Atlantic Ocean was subjected to slowly varying changes in freshwater input. All models show a characteristic hysteresis response of the thermohaline circulation to the freshwater forcing; which can be explained by Stommel's salt advection feedback. The width of the hysteresis curves varies between 0.2 and 0.5 Sv in the models. Major differences are found in the location of present-day climate on the hysteresis diagram. In seven of the models, present-day climate for standard parameter choices is found in the bi-stable regime, in four models this climate is in the mono-stable regime. The proximity of the present-day climate to the Stommel bifurcation point, beyond which North Atlantic Deep Water formation cannot be sustained, varies from less than 0.1 Sv to over 0.5 Sv.},
author = {Rahmstorf, Stefan and Crucifix, Michel and Ganopolski, Andrey and Goosse, Hugues and Kamenkovich, Igor and Knutti, Reto and Lohmann, Gerrit and Marsh, Robert and Mysak, Lawrence A. and Wang, Zhaomin and Weaver, Andrew J.},
doi = {10.1029/2005GL023655},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {23},
pages = {L23605},
title = {{Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: A model intercomparison}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2005GL023655},
volume = {32},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Ramanathan1975,
author = {Ramanathan, V.},
doi = {10.1126/science.190.4209.50},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {oct},
number = {4209},
pages = {50--52},
title = {{Greenhouse Effect Due to Chlorofluorocarbons: Climatic Implications}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.190.4209.50},
volume = {190},
year = {1975}
}
@article{Randall1997,
author = {Randall, David A. and Wielicki, Bruce A.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0399:MMOHIT>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {399--406},
title = {{Measurements, Models, and Hypotheses in the Atmospheric Sciences}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078{\%}3C0399:MMOHIT{\%}3E2.0.CO;2},
volume = {78},
year = {1997}
}
@article{Rao2017,
abstract = {Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions.},
author = {Rao, Shilpa and Klimont, Zbigniew and Smith, Steven J. and {Van Dingenen}, Rita and Dentener, Frank and Bouwman, Lex and Riahi, Keywan and Amann, Markus and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and {Aleluia Reis}, Lara and Calvin, Katherine and Drouet, Laurent and Fricko, Oliver and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Gernaat, David and Havlik, Petr and Harmsen, Mathijs and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Heyes, Chris and Hilaire, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Luderer, Gunnar and Masui, Toshihiko and Stehfest, Elke and Strefler, Jessica and van der Sluis, Sietske and Tavoni, Massimo},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
keywords = {Air pollution,Integrated assessment models,Scenarios},
month = {jan},
pages = {346--358},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways}},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Raper2001,
author = {Raper, S. C. B. and Gregory, J. M. and Osborn, T. J.},
doi = {10.1007/PL00007931},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {8},
pages = {601--613},
publisher = {Springer-Verlag},
title = {{Use of an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to simulate and diagnose A/OGCM results}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/PL00007931},
volume = {17},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Raskin2020,
author = {Raskin, Paul and Swart, Rob},
doi = {10.1186/s42055-020-00030-5},
issn = {2520-8748},
journal = {Sustainable Earth},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {8},
title = {{Excluded futures: the continuity bias in scenario assessments}},
url = {https://sustainableearth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s42055-020-00030-5},
volume = {3},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Rasool1971a,
abstract = {Effects on the global temperature of large increases in carbon dioxide and aerosol densities in the atmosphere of Earth have been computed. It is found that, although the addition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the surface temperature, the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For aerosols, however, the net effect of increase in density is to reduce the surface temperature of Earth. Because of the exponential dependence of the backscattering, the rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5°K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.},
author = {Rasool, S. I. and Schneider, S. H.},
doi = {10.1126/science.173.3992.138},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jul},
number = {3992},
pages = {138--141},
title = {{Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate}},
volume = {173},
year = {1971}
}
@article{Raupach2007,
author = {Raupach, M. R. and Marland, G. and Ciais, P. and {Le Quere}, C. and Canadell, J. G. and Klepper, G. and Field, C. B.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0700609104},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {jun},
number = {24},
pages = {10288--10293},
title = {{Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0700609104},
volume = {104},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Ray2015,
abstract = {Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ∼13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, {\textgreater}60{\%} of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (∼32-39{\%}) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.},
author = {Ray, Deepak K. and Gerber, James S. and MacDonald, Graham K. and West, Paul C.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms6989},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {5989},
pmid = {25609225},
title = {{Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms6989},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@book{Rayner1998,
abstract = {This book is Volume 1 of a four-volume set which assesses social science research that is relevant to global climate change from a wide-ranging interdisciplinary perspective. Attention is focused on the societal framework as it relates to climate change. This series is indispensable reading for scientists and engineers wishing to make an effective contribution to the climate change policy debate.},
address = {Columbus, OH, USA},
author = {Rayner, Steve and Malone, Elizabeth L.},
isbn = {978-1574770445},
keywords = {29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY,CLIMATIC CHANGE,DECISION MAKING,ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY,GLOBAL ASPECTS,MANUALS},
pages = {536},
publisher = {Battelle Press},
title = {{Human Choice and Climate Change: The Societal Framework}},
year = {1998}
}
@article{Rayner2006,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Rayner, N A and Brohan, P and Parker, D E and Folland, C K and Kennedy, J J and Vanicek, M and Ansell, T J and Tett, S F B},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI3637.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {3},
pages = {446--469},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Improved Analyses of Changes and Uncertainties in Sea Surface Temperature Measured In Situ since the Mid-Nineteenth Century: The HadSST2 Dataset}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/19/3/jcli3637.1.xml},
volume = {19},
year = {2006}
}
@article{RebmannCorinna;AubinetMarc;SchmidHape;ArrigaNicola;AurelaMika;BurbaGeorge;ClementRobert;DeLigneAnne;FratiniGerardo;GielenBert;GraceJohn;GrafAlexander;GrossPatrick;HaapanalaSami;HerbstMathias;Hor2018,
abstract = {The Integrated Carbon Observation System Research Infrastructure aims to provide long-term, continuous observations of sources and sinks of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and water vapour. At ICOS ecosystem stations, the principal technique for measurements of ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of GHGs is the eddy-covariance technique. The establishment and setup of an eddy-covariance tower have to be carefully reasoned to ensure high quality flux measurements being representative of the investigated ecosystem and comparable to measurements at other stations. To fulfill the requirements needed for flux determination with the eddy-covariance technique, variations in GHG concentrations have to be measured at high frequency, simultaneously with the wind velocity, in order to fully capture turbulent fluctuations. This requires the use of high-frequency gas analysers and ultrasonic anemometers. In addition, to analyse flux data with respect to environmental conditions but also to enable corrections in the post-processing procedures, it is necessary to measure additional abiotic variables in close vicinity to the flux measurements. Here we describe the standards the ICOS ecosystem station network has adopted for GHG flux measurements with respect to the setup of instrumentation on towers to maximize measurement precision and accuracy while allowing for flexibility in order to observe specific ecosystem features.},
author = {Rebmann, Corinna and Aubinet, Marc and Schmid, Hape and Arriga, Nicola and Aurela, Mika and Burba, George and Clement, Robert and {De Ligne}, Anne and Fratini, Gerardo and Gielen, Bert and Grace, John and Graf, Alexander and Gross, Patrick and Haapanala, Sami and Herbst, Mathias and H{\"{o}}rtnagl, Lukas and Ibrom, Andreas and Joly, Lilian and Kljun, Natascha and Kolle, Olaf and Kowalski, Andrew and Lindroth, Anders and Loustau, Denis and Mammarella, Ivan and Mauder, Matthias and Merbold, Lutz and Metzger, Stefan and M{\"{o}}lder, Meelis and Montagnani, Leonardo and Papale, Dario and Pavelka, Marian and Peichl, Matthias and Roland, Marilyn and Serrano-Ortiz, Pen{\'{e}}lope and Siebicke, Lukas and Steinbrecher, Rainer and Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka and Vesala, Timo and Wohlfahrt, Georg and Franz, Daniela},
doi = {10.1515/intag-2017-0044},
issn = {2300-8725},
journal = {International Agrophysics},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {471--494},
title = {{ICOS eddy covariance flux-station site setup: a review}},
url = {http://archive.sciendo.com/INTAG/intag.2017.32.issue-4/intag-2017-0044/intag-2017-0044.pdf},
volume = {32},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Reimer2020,
abstract = {Radiocarbon ( 14 C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14 C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14 C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14 C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14 C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14 C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.},
author = {Reimer, Paula J and Austin, William E N and Bard, Edouard and Bayliss, Alex and Blackwell, Paul G and {Bronk Ramsey}, Christopher and Butzin, Martin and Cheng, Hai and Edwards, R Lawrence and Friedrich, Michael and Grootes, Pieter M and Guilderson, Thomas P and Hajdas, Irka and Heaton, Timothy J and Hogg, Alan G and Hughen, Konrad A and Kromer, Bernd and Manning, Sturt W and Muscheler, Raimund and Palmer, Jonathan G and Pearson, Charlotte and van der Plicht, Johannes and Reimer, Ron W and Richards, David A and Scott, E Marian and Southon, John R and Turney, Christian S M and Wacker, Lukas and Adolphi, Florian and B{\"{u}}ntgen, Ulf and Capano, Manuela and Fahrni, Simon M and Fogtmann-Schulz, Alexandra and Friedrich, Ronny and K{\"{o}}hler, Peter and Kudsk, Sabrina and Miyake, Fusa and Olsen, Jesper and Reinig, Frederick and Sakamoto, Minoru and Sookdeo, Adam and Talamo, Sahra},
doi = {10.1017/RDC.2020.41},
issn = {0033-8222},
journal = {Radiocarbon},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {725--757},
title = {{The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0–55 cal kBP)}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0033822220000417/type/journal{\_}article},
volume = {62},
year = {2020}
}
@misc{Reis2012,
abstract = {Updated air pollution science and policies address human health, ecosystem effects, and climate change in Europe.},
author = {Reis, S. and Grennfelt, P. and Klimont, Z. and Amann, M. and ApSimon, H. and Hettelingh, J. P. and Holland, M. and LeGall, A. C. and Maas, R. and Posch, M. and Spranger, T. and Sutton, M. A. and Williams, M.},
booktitle = {Science},
doi = {10.1126/science.1226514},
issn = {10959203},
month = {nov},
number = {6111},
pages = {1153--1154},
pmid = {23197517},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{From acid rain to climate change}},
url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1153 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1153.abstract},
volume = {338},
year = {2012}
}
@techreport{Reisinger2020,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {Reisinger, Andy and Howden, Mark and Vera, Carolina and Garschagen, Matthias and Hurlbert, M. and Kreibiehl, Sylvia and Mach, Katharine J. and Mintenbeck, Katja and O'Neill, Brian and Pathak, M and Pedace, Roque and P{\"{o}}rtner, Hans-Otto and Poloczanska, Elvira and Corradi, Maisa Rojas and Sillmann, Jana and van Aalst, Maarten and Viner, D. and Jones, Richard and Ruane, Alex C. and Ranasinghe, Roshanka},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/event/guidance-note-concept-of-risk-in-the-6ar-cross-wg-discussions},
pages = {15},
publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)},
title = {{The concept of risk in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: a summary of cross-Working Group discussions}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/event/guidance-note-concept-of-risk-in-the-6ar-cross-wg-discussions},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Remedio2019,
abstract = {A new ensemble of climate and climate change simulations covering all major inhabited regions with a spatial resolution of about 25 km, from the WCRP CORDEX COmmon Regional Experiment (CORE) Framework, has been established in support of the growing demands for climate services. The main objective of this study is to assess the quality of the simulated climate and its fitness for climate change projections by REMO (REMO2015), a regional climate model of Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) and one of the RCMs used in the CORDEX-CORE Framework. The CORDEX-CORE REMO2015 simulations were driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and the simulations were evaluated in terms of biases and skill scores over ten CORDEX Domains against the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS version 4.02, from 1981 to 2010, according to the regions defined by the K{\&}ouml;ppen{\&}ndash;Trewartha (K{\&}ndash;T) Climate Classification types. The REMO simulations have a relatively low mean annual temperature bias (about {\&}plusmn; 0.5 K) with low spatial standard deviation (about {\&}plusmn; 1.5 K) in the European, African, North and Central American, and Southeast Asian domains. The relative mean annual precipitation biases of REMO are below {\&}plusmn; 50 {\%} in most domains; however, spatial standard deviation varies from {\&}plusmn; 30 {\%} to {\&}plusmn; 200 {\%}. The REMO results simulated most climate types relatively well with lowest biases and highest skill score found in the boreal, temperate, and subtropical regions. In dry and polar regions, the REMO results simulated a relatively high annual biases of precipitation and temperature and low skill. Biases were traced to: missing or misrepresented processes, observational uncertainty, and uncertainties due to input boundary forcing.},
author = {Remedio, Armelle Reca and Teichmann, Claas and Buntemeyer, Lars and Sieck, Kevin and Weber, Torsten and Rechid, Diana and Hoffmann, Peter and Nam, Christine and Kotova, Lola and Jacob, Daniela},
doi = {10.3390/atmos10110726},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
number = {11},
pages = {726},
title = {{Evaluation of New CORDEX Simulations Using an Updated K{\"{o}}ppen-Trewartha Climate Classification}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/11/726},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Reul2020,
abstract = {Operated since the end of 2009, the European Space Agency (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission is the first orbiting radiometer that collects regular and global observations from space of two Essential Climate Variables of the Global Climate Observing System: Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) and Soil Moisture. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aquarius mission, with the primary objective to provide global SSS measurements from space operated from mid-2011 to mid-2015. NASA's Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission, primarily dedicated to soil moisture measurements, but also monitoring SSS, has been operating since early 2015. The primary sensors onboard these three missions are passive microwave radiometers operating at 1.4 GHz (L-band). SSS is retrieved from radiometer measurements of the sea surface brightness temperature (TB). In this paper, we first provide a historical review of SSS remote sensing with passive L-band radiometry beginning with the discussions of measurement principles, technology, sensing characteristics and complementarities of the three aforementioned missions. The assessment of satellite SSS products is then presented in terms of individual mission characteristics, common algorithms, and measurement uncertainties, including the validation versus in situ data, and, the consideration of sampling differences between satellite SSS and in situ salinity measurements. We next review the major scientific achievements of the combined first 10 years of satellite SSS data, including the insights enabled by these measurements regarding the linkages of SSS with the global water cycle, climate variability, and ocean biochemistry. We also highlight the new ability provided by satellites to monitor mesoscale and synoptic-scale SSS features and to advance our understanding of SSS' role in air-sea interactions, constraining ocean models, and improving seasonal predictions. An overview of satellite SSS observation highlights during this first decade and upcoming challenges are then presented.},
author = {Reul, N and Grodsky, S A and Arias, M and Boutin, J and Catany, R and Chapron, B and D'Amico, F and Dinnat, E and Donlon, C and Fore, A and Fournier, S and Guimbard, S and Hasson, A and Kolodziejczyk, N and Lagerloef, G and Lee, T and {Le Vine}, D M and Lindstrom, E and Maes, C and Mecklenburg, S and Meissner, T and Olmedo, E and Sabia, R and Tenerelli, J and Thouvenin-Masson, C and Turiel, A and Vergely, J L and Vinogradova, N and Wentz, F and Yueh, S},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2020.111769},
issn = {0034-4257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {Aquarius/SAC-D,L-band,Ocean microwave remote sensing,Radiometer,SMAP,SMOS,Sea surface salinity},
pages = {111769},
title = {{Sea surface salinity estimates from spaceborne L-band radiometers: An overview of the first decade of observation (2010–2019)}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425720301395},
volume = {242},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Revelle1957,
author = {Revelle, Roger and Suess, Hans E},
doi = {10.1111/j.2153-3490.1957.tb01849.x},
journal = {Tellus},
number = {1},
pages = {18--27},
title = {{Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 during the Past Decades}},
volume = {9},
year = {1957}
}
@article{Riahi2017,
author = {Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Kriegler, Elmar and Edmonds, Jae and O'Neill, Brian C. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Bauer, Nico and Calvin, Katherine and Dellink, Rob and Fricko, Oliver and Lutz, Wolfgang and Popp, Alexander and Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo and KC, Samir and Leimbach, Marian and Jiang, Leiwen and Kram, Tom and Rao, Shilpa and Emmerling, Johannes and Ebi, Kristie and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Humpen{\"{o}}der, Florian and {Da Silva}, Lara Aleluia and Smith, Steve and Stehfest, Elke and Bosetti, Valentina and Eom, Jiyong and Gernaat, David and Masui, Toshihiko and Rogelj, Joeri and Strefler, Jessica and Drouet, Laurent and Krey, Volker and Luderer, Gunnar and Harmsen, Mathijs and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Baumstark, Lavinia and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Kainuma, Mikiko and Klimont, Zbigniew and Marangoni, Giacomo and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Tavoni, Massimo},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {jan},
pages = {153--168},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378016300681},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ribes2021a,
abstract = {Many studies have sought to constrain climate projections based on recent observations. Until recently, these constraints had limited impact, and projected warming ranges were driven primarily by model outputs. Here, we use the newest climate model ensemble, improved observations, and a new statistical method to narrow uncertainty on estimates of past and future human-induced warming. Cross-validation suggests that our method produces robust results and is not overconfident. We derive consistent observationally constrained estimates of attributable warming to date and warming rate, the response to a range of future scenarios, and metrics of climate sensitivity. We find that historical observations narrow uncertainty on projected future warming by about 50{\%}. Our results suggest that using an unconstrained multimodel ensemble is no longer the best choice for global mean temperature projections and that the lower end of previous estimates of 21st century warming can now be excluded.},
author = {Ribes, Aur{\'{e}}lien and Qasmi, Sa{\"{i}}d and Gillett, Nathan P.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.abc0671},
issn = {23752548},
journal = {Science Advances},
number = {4},
pages = {1--10},
title = {{Making climate projections conditional on historical observations}},
volume = {7},
year = {2021}
}
@book{Richardson1922,
address = {Cambridge, UK},
author = {Richardson, Lewis Fry},
pages = {236},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Weather Prediction by Numerical Process}},
year = {1922}
}
@article{Riedlinger2001,
abstract = {Despite much scientific research, a considerable amount of uncertainty exists concerning the rate and extent of climate change in the Arctic, and how change will affect regional climatic processes and northern ecosystems. Can an expanded scope of knowledge and inquiry augment understandings of climate change in the north? The extensive use of the land and the coastal ocean in Inuit communities provides a unique source of local environmental expertise that is guided by generations of experience. Environmental change {\ldots}},
annote = {Times cited: 325},
author = {Riedlinger, Dyanna and Berkes, Fikret},
doi = {10.1017/S0032247400017058},
isbn = {1475-3057},
journal = {Polar Record},
number = {203},
pages = {315--328},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Contributions of traditional knowledge to understanding climate change in the Canadian Arctic}},
volume = {37},
year = {2001}
}
@article{gmd-13-1179-2020,
author = {Righi, M and Andela, B and Eyring, V and Lauer, A and Predoi, V and Schlund, M and Vegas-Regidor, J and Bock, L and Br{\"{o}}tz, B and de Mora, L and Diblen, F and Dreyer, L and Drost, N and Earnshaw, P and Hassler, B and Koldunov, N and Little, B and {Loosveldt Tomas}, S and Zimmermann, K},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-13-1179-2020},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {3},
pages = {1179--1199},
title = {{Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – technical overview}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1179/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Rignot2006,
abstract = {Using satellite radar interferometry observations of Greenland, we detected widespread glacier acceleration below 66- north between 1996 and 2000, which rapidly expanded to 70- north in 2005. Accelerated ice discharge in the west and particularly in the east doubled the ice sheet mass deficit in the last decade from 90 to 220 cubic kilometers per year. As more glaciers accelerate farther north, the contribution of Greenland to sea-level rise will continue to increase.},
author = {Rignot, Eric and Kanagaratnam, Pannir},
doi = {10.1126/science.1121381},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {feb},
number = {5763},
pages = {986--990},
pmid = {16484490},
title = {{Changes in the Velocity Structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1121381},
volume = {311},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Rind1985,
abstract = {CLIMAP (1981, “Seasonal Reconstruction of the Earth's Surface at the Last Glacial Maximum,” Geological Society of America Map and Chart Series MC-36) boundary conditions were used as inputs to the GISS general circulation model, and the last glacial maximum (LGM) climate was simulated for six model years. The simulation was compared with snow line depression and pollen-inferred temperature data at low latitudes, specifically for Hawaii, Colombia, East Africa, and New Guinea. The model does not produced as much cooling at low latitudes as is implied by the terrestrial evidence. An alternative experiment in which the CLIMAP sea-surface temperatures were uniformly lowered by 2°C produces a better fit to the land data although in Hawaii model temperatures are still too warm. The relatively warm CLIMAP tropical sea-surface temperatures also provide for only a slight decrease in the hydrologic cycle in the model, in contrast to both evidence of LGM tropical aridity and the results of the experiment with colder ocean temperatures. With the CLIMAP sea-surface temperatures, the LGM global annual mean surface air temperature is 3.6°C colder than at present; if the ocean temperatures were allowed to cool in conformity with the model's radiation balance, the LGM simulation would be 5°–6°C colder than today, and in better agreement with the tropical land evidence.},
author = {Rind, D. and Peteet, D.},
doi = {10.1016/0033-5894(85)90080-8},
issn = {0033-5894},
journal = {Quaternary Research},
month = {jul},
number = {01},
pages = {1--22},
title = {{Terrestrial Conditions at the Last Glacial Maximum and CLIMAP Sea-Surface Temperature Estimates: Are They Consistent?}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0033589400017464/type/journal{\_}article},
volume = {24},
year = {1985}
}
@article{Ritchie2019,
author = {Ritchie, Paul and Karabacak, {\"{O}}zkan and Sieber, Jan},
doi = {10.1098/rspa.2018.0504},
issn = {1364-5021},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {2222},
pages = {20180504},
title = {{Inverse-square law between time and amplitude for crossing tipping thresholds}},
url = {http://www.royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2018.0504},
volume = {475},
year = {2019}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00320.1,
abstract = {The time scales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short time scales the combined effect of climate variability and change are both key drivers of extreme events, with decadal time scales also important for infrastructure planning. Hence, in order to assess climate risk on such time scales, we require climate models to be able to represent key aspects of both internally driven climate variability and the response to changing forcings. In this paper we argue that we now have the modeling capability to address these requirements—specifically with global models having horizontal resolutions considerably enhanced from those typically used in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises. The improved representation of weather and climate processes in such models underpins our enhanced confidence in predictions and projections, as well as providing improved forcing to regional models, which are better able to represent local-scale extremes (such as convective precipitation). We choose the global water cycle as an illustrative example because it is governed by a chain of processes for which there is growing evidence of the benefits of higher resolution. At the same time it comprises key processes involved in many of the expected future climate extremes (e.g., flooding, drought, tropical and midlatitude storms).},
author = {Roberts, M J and Vidale, P L and Senior, C and Hewitt, H T and Bates, C and Berthou, S and Chang, P and Christensen, H M and Danilov, S and Demory, M.-E. and Griffies, S M and Haarsma, R and Jung, T and Martin, G and Minobe, S and Ringler, T and Satoh, M and Schiemann, R and Scoccimarro, E and Stephens, G and Wehner, M F},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00320.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {2341--2359},
title = {{The Benefits of Global High Resolution for Climate Simulation: Process Understanding and the Enabling of Stakeholder Decisions at the Regional Scale}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00320.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/11/bams-d-15-00320.1.xml},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{gmd-12-4999-2019,
author = {Roberts, M J and Baker, A and Blockley, E W and Calvert, D and Coward, A and Hewitt, H T and Jackson, L C and Kuhlbrodt, T and Mathiot, P and Roberts, C D and Schiemann, R and Seddon, J and Vanni{\`{e}}re, B and Vidale, P L},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-4999-2019},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {12},
pages = {4999--5028},
title = {{Description of the resolution hierarchy of the global coupled HadGEM3-GC3.1 model as used in CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/4999/2019/},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Robock2007,
author = {Robock, Alan and Oman, Luke and Stenchikov, Georgiy L.},
doi = {10.1029/2006JD008235},
issn = {01480227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jul},
number = {D13},
pages = {D13107},
title = {{Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2006JD008235},
volume = {112},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Rodas2017,
abstract = {A m{\'{i}}dia, com seu papel de revigorar a esfera p{\'{u}}blica e criar um f{\'{o}}rum para o discurso p{\'{u}}blico, tem sido importante para a compreens{\~{a}}o p{\'{u}}blica das mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'{a}}ticas, incluindo suas incertezas, controv{\'{e}}rsias, riscos e amea{\c{c}}as, bem como as proje{\c{c}}{\~{o}}es futuras e as possibilidades de enfrentamento. Ao oferecer ao p{\'{u}}blico formas simb{\'{o}}licas de representa{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o da rela{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o dos indiv{\'{i}}duos com o fen{\^{o}}meno, a m{\'{i}}dia tem a responsabilidade de tentar representar as quest{\~{o}}es complexas que cercam as mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'{a}}ticas, relacionando-as {\`{a}}s experi{\^{e}}ncias da vida moderna. Compreender essa divulga{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o midi{\'{a}}tica e suas caracter{\'{i}}sticas {\'{e}} um importante desafio colocado aos pesquisadores que se debru{\c{c}}am sobre a tr{\'{i}}ade ci{\^{e}}ncia, comunica{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o e sociedade. Este artigo busca trazer contribui{\c{c}}{\~{o}}es para esse campo anal{\'{i}}tico, particularmente para uma lacuna que ainda existe em estudos sobre mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'{a}}ticas e cobertura midi{\'{a}}tica no Brasil, a partir da an{\'{a}}lise e da discuss{\~{a}}o de resultados de uma pesquisa que teve os seguintes objetivos: (i) compreender a divulga{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o de quest{\~{o}}es relacionadas {\`{a}}s mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'{a}}ticas e {\`{a}} energia, a partir da an{\'{a}}lise de not{\'{i}}cias publicadas em um jornal de grande circula{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o no Brasil, tendo como recorte temporal o per{\'{i}}odo 2000 a 2014; e (ii) compreender percep{\c{c}}{\~{o}}es dos jornalistas sobre a cobertura jornal{\'{i}}stica feita acerca desses temas, a partir da an{\'{a}}lise de conte{\'{u}}do das entrevistas realizadas com profissionais que cobrem esses assuntos em suas rotinas. Neste artigo, os resultados s{\~{a}}o apresentados e discutidos {\`{a}} luz de tr{\^{e}}s argumentos anal{\'{i}}ticos: (i) tend{\^{e}}ncia a uma cobertura jornal{\'{i}}stica mais centrada em eventos e acontecimentos pontuais; (ii) altera{\c{c}}{\~{o}}es na abordagem da cobertura sobre mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'{a}}ticas ao longo dos anos; (iii) ado{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o de crit{\'{e}}rios de noticiabilidade na sele{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o das informa{\c{c}}{\~{o}}es divulgadas e na cobertura sobre mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'{a}}ticas, incluindo senso de oportunidade, interesse (pelo) humano e conflito.},
author = {Rodas, Caroline De Ara{\'{u}}jo and {Di Giulio}, Gabriela Marques},
doi = {10.5380/dma.v40i0.49002},
issn = {2176-9109},
journal = {Desenvolvimento e Meio Ambiente},
month = {apr},
pages = {101--124},
title = {{M{\'{i}}dia brasileira e mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'{a}}ticas: uma an{\'{a}}lise sobre tend{\^{e}}ncias da cobertura jornal{\'{i}}stica, abordagens e crit{\'{e}}rios de noticiabilidade}},
url = {http://revistas.ufpr.br/made/article/view/49002},
volume = {40},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Roe2019,
abstract = {The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here we combine a review of modelled pathways and literature on mitigation strategies, and develop a land-sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector and deploying measures in agriculture, forestry, wetlands and bioenergy could feasibly and sustainably contribute about 30{\%}, or 15 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) per year, of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5 °C target, but it will require substantially more effort than the 2 °C target. Risks and barriers must be addressed and incentives will be necessary to scale up mitigation while maximizing sustainable development, food security and environmental co-benefits.},
author = {Roe, Stephanie and Streck, Charlotte and Obersteiner, Michael and Frank, Stefan and Griscom, Bronson and Drouet, Laurent and Fricko, Oliver and Gusti, Mykola and Harris, Nancy and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Hausfather, Zeke and Havl{\'{i}}k, Petr and House, Jo and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and Popp, Alexander and S{\'{a}}nchez, Mar{\'{i}}a Jos{\'{e}} Sanz and Sanderman, Jonathan and Smith, Pete and Stehfest, Elke and Lawrence, Deborah},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9},
issn = {1758-6798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {11},
pages = {817--828},
title = {{Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{10.3389/fmars.2019.00439,
abstract = {The Argo Program has been implemented and sustained for almost two decades, as a global array of about 4000 profiling floats. Argo provides continuous observations of ocean temperature and salinity versus pressure, from the sea surface to 2000 dbar. The successful installation of the Argo array and its innovative data management system arose opportunistically from the combination of great scientific need and technological innovation. Through the data system, Argo provides fundamental physical observations with broad societally-valuable applications, built on the cost-efficient and robust technologies of autonomous profiling floats. Following recent advances in platform and sensor technologies, even greater opportunity exists now than 20 years ago to (i) improve Argo's global coverage and value beyond the original design, (ii) extend Argo to span the full ocean depth, (iii) add biogeochemical sensors for improved understanding of oceanic cycles of carbon, nutrients, and ecosystems, and (iv) consider experimental sensors that might be included in the future, for example to document the spatial and temporal patterns of ocean mixing. For Core Argo and each of these enhancements, the past, present, and future progression along a path from experimental deployments to regional pilot arrays to global implementation is described. The objective is to create a fully global, top-to-bottom, dynamically complete, and multidisciplinary Argo Program that will integrate seamlessly with satellite and with other in situ elements of the Global Ocean Observing System ({\textless}xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B81"{\textgreater}Legler et al., 2015{\textless}/xref{\textgreater}). The integrated system will deliver operational reanalysis and forecasting capability, and assessment of the state and variability of the climate system with respect to physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystems parameters. It will enable basic research of unprecedented breadth and magnitude, and a wealth of ocean-education and outreach opportunities.},
author = {Roemmich, Dean and Alford, Matthew H and Claustre, Herv{\'{e}} and Johnson, Kenneth and King, Brian and Moum, James and Oke, Peter and Owens, W Brechner and Pouliquen, Sylvie and Purkey, Sarah and Scanderbeg, Megan and Suga, Toshio and Wijffels, Susan and Zilberman, Nathalie and Bakker, Dorothee and Baringer, Molly and Belbeoch, Mathieu and Bittig, Henry C and Boss, Emmanuel and Calil, Paulo and Carse, Fiona and Carval, Thierry and Chai, Fei and Conchubhair, Diarmuid {\'{O}} and D'Ortenzio, Fabrizio and Dall'Olmo, Giorgio and Desbruyeres, Damien and Fennel, Katja and Fer, Ilker and Ferrari, Raffaele and Forget, Gael and Freeland, Howard and Fujiki, Tetsuichi and Gehlen, Marion and Greenan, Blair and Hallberg, Robert and Hibiya, Toshiyuki and Hosoda, Shigeki and Jayne, Steven and Jochum, Markus and Johnson, Gregory C and Kang, KiRyong and Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas and K{\"{o}}rtzinger, Arne and Traon, Pierre-Yves Le and Lenn, Yueng-Djern and Maze, Guillaume and Mork, Kjell Arne and Morris, Tamaryn and Nagai, Takeyoshi and Nash, Jonathan and Garabato, Alberto Naveira and Olsen, Are and Pattabhi, Rama Rao and Prakash, Satya and Riser, Stephen and Schmechtig, Catherine and Schmid, Claudia and Shroyer, Emily and Sterl, Andreas and Sutton, Philip and Talley, Lynne and Tanhua, Toste and Thierry, Virginie and Thomalla, Sandy and Toole, John and Troisi, Ariel and Trull, Thomas W and Turton, Jon and Velez-Belchi, Pedro Joaquin and Walczowski, Waldemar and Wang, Haili and Wanninkhof, Rik and Waterhouse, Amy F and Waterman, Stephanie and Watson, Andrew and Wilson, Cara and Wong, Annie P S and Xu, Jianping and Yasuda, Ichiro},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00439},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {439},
title = {{On the Future of Argo: A Global, Full-Depth, Multi-Disciplinary Array}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00439},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Roemmich2012c,
author = {Roemmich, Dean and Gould, W. John and Gilson, John},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1461},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {425--428},
title = {{135 years of global ocean warming between the Challenger expedition and the Argo Programme}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1461},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@incollection{IPCC2018,
author = {Rogelj, J. and Shindell, D. and Jiang, K. and Fifita, S. and Forster, P. and Ginzburg, V. and Handa, C. and Kheshgi, H. and Kobayashi, S. and Kriegler, E. and Mundaca, L. and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, R. and Vilari{\~{n}}o, M.V. and Huppmann, D. and Kriegler, E. and Mundaca, L. and Smith, C. and Rogelj, J. and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, R.},
booktitle = {Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,},
chapter = {2},
doi = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2},
editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P.R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and P{\'{e}}an, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M.I. and Lonnoy, E. and Maycock, T. and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.},
pages = {93--174},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rogelj2017,
annote = {Times cited: 32},
author = {Rogelj, Joeri and Fricko, Oliver and Meinshausen, Malte and Krey, Volker and Zilliacus, Johanna J J and Riahi, Keywan},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms15748},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {NDCs},
number = {1},
pages = {15748},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
title = {{Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15748},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Rogelj2018,
author = {Rogelj, Joeri and Popp, Alexander and Calvin, Katherine V. and Luderer, Gunnar and Emmerling, Johannes and Gernaat, David and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Strefler, Jessica and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Marangoni, Giacomo and Krey, Volker and Kriegler, Elmar and Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Doelman, Jonathan and Drouet, Laurent and Edmonds, Jae and Fricko, Oliver and Harmsen, Mathijs and Havl{\'{i}}k, Petr and Humpen{\"{o}}der, Florian and Stehfest, Elke and Tavoni, Massimo},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {325--332},
title = {{Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0091-3},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rogelj2019a,
author = {Rogelj, Joeri and Forster, Piers M. and Kriegler, Elmar and Smith, Christopher J. and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jul},
number = {7765},
pages = {335--342},
title = {{Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1368-z},
volume = {571},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rogelj2016,
abstract = {The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.},
author = {Rogelj, Joeri and den Elzen, Michel and H{\"{o}}hne, Niklas and Fransen, Taryn and Fekete, Hanna and Winkler, Harald and Schaeffer, Roberto and Sha, Fu and Riahi, Keywan and Meinshausen, Malte},
doi = {10.1038/nature18307},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jun},
number = {7609},
pages = {631--639},
pmid = {27357792},
title = {{Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature18307},
volume = {534},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Muller2013,
author = {Rohde, Robert A. and Muller, Richard A. and Jacobsen, Robert and Muller, Elizabeth and Wickham, Charlotte},
doi = {10.4172/2327-4581.1000101},
isbn = {23274581},
issn = {23274581},
journal = {Geoinformatics {\&} Geostatistics: An Overview},
number = {1},
title = {{A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011}},
url = {http://www.scitechnol.com/2327-4581/2327-4581-1-101.php},
volume = {1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Rohde2020,
author = {Rohde, Robert A. and Hausfather, Zeke},
doi = {10.5194/essd-12-3469-2020},
issn = {1866-3516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {3469--3479},
title = {{The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature Record}},
url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/3469/2020/},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Rohrschneider2019,
abstract = {Global warming in response to external radiative forcing is determined by the feedback of the climate system. Recent studies have suggested that simple mathematical models incorporating a radiative response which is related to upper- and deep-ocean disequilibrium (ocean heat uptake efficacy), inhomogeneous patterns of surface warming and radiative feedbacks (pattern effect), or an explicit dependence of the strength of radiative feedbacks on surface temperature change (feedback temperature dependence) may explain the climate response in atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs) or can be useful for interpreting the instrumental record. We analyze a two-layer model with an ocean heat transport efficacy, a two-region model with region specific heat capacities and radiative responses; a one-layer model with a temperature dependent feedback; and a model which combines elements of the two-layer/region models and the state-dependent feedback parameter. We show that, from the perspective of the globally averaged surface temperature and radiative imbalance, the two-region and two-layer models are equivalent. State-dependence of the feedback parameter introduces a nonlinearity in the system which makes the adjustment timescales forcing-dependent. Neither the linear two-region/layer models, nor the state-dependent feedback model adequately describes the behavior of complex climate models. The model which combines elements of both can adequately describe the response of more comprehensive models but may require more experimental input than is available from single forcing realizations.},
author = {Rohrschneider, Tim and Stevens, Bjorn and Mauritsen, Thorsten},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04686-4},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {5},
pages = {3131--3145},
title = {{On simple representations of the climate response to external radiative forcing}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04686-4},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rojas2019,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability—the time of emergence (TOE)—is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early ({\textless}2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1–14{\%} (3–31{\%}) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Rojas, Maisa and Lambert, Fabrice and Ramirez-Villegas, Julian and Challinor, Andrew J.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1811463116},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {14},
pages = {6673--6678},
title = {{Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1811463116},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rosa2012,
author = {Rosa, Eugene A. and Dietz, Thomas},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1506},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
pages = {581--586},
title = {{Human drivers of national greenhouse-gas emissions}},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0391.1,
abstract = {AbstractThe downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this trend, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat than has been observed. However, this bias has been widely noted to have decreased in models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) compared with the previous generation of models (CMIP3). Here simulations are examined from both CMIP3 and CMIP5. It is found that simulated historical sea ice trends are influenced by volcanic forcing, which was included in all of the CMIP5 models but in only about half of the CMIP3 models. The volcanic forcing causes temporary simulated cooling in the 1980s and 1990s, which contributes to raising the simulated 1979–2013 global-mean surface temperature trends to values substantially larger than observed. It is shown that this warming bias is accompanied by an enhanced rate of Arctic sea ice retreat and hence a simulated sea ice trend that is closer to the observed value, which is consistent with previous findings of an approximately linear relationship between sea ice extent and global-mean surface temperature. Both generations of climate models are found to simulate Arctic sea ice that is substantially less sensitive to global warming than has been observed. The results imply that much of the difference in Arctic sea ice trends between CMIP3 and CMIP5 occurred because of the inclusion of volcanic forcing, rather than improved sea ice physics or model resolution.},
author = {Rosenblum, Erica and Eisenman, Ian},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0391.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {24},
pages = {9179--9188},
title = {{Faster Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to Volcanoes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0391.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0455.1,
abstract = {AbstractObservations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. However, in each hemisphere there is a small subset of model simulations that have sea ice trends similar to the observations. Based on this, a number of recent studies have suggested that the models are consistent with the observations in each hemisphere when simulated internal climate variability is taken into account. Here sea ice changes during 1979–2013 are examined in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), drawing on previous work that found a close relationship in climate models between global-mean surface temperature and sea ice extent. All of the simulations with 1979–2013 Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observations are found to have considerably more global warming than observations during this time period. Using two separate methods to estimate the sea ice retreat that would occur under the observed level of global warming in each simulation in both ensembles, it is found that simulated Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observations would occur less than 1{\%} of the time. This implies that the models are not consistent with the observations. In the Antarctic, simulated sea ice expansion as fast as observations is found to typically correspond with too little global warming, although these results are more equivocal. As a result, the simulations do not capture the observed asymmetry between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice trends. This suggests that the models may be getting the right sea ice trends for the wrong reasons in both polar regions.},
author = {Rosenblum, Erica and Eisenman, Ian},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0455.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {16},
pages = {6265--6278},
title = {{Sea Ice Trends in Climate Models Only Accurate in Runs with Biased Global Warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0455.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Rothman2014,
author = {Rothman, Dale S. and Romero-Lankao, Patricia and Schweizer, Vanessa J. and Bee, Beth A.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0907-0},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {495--507},
title = {{Challenges to adaptation: a fundamental concept for the shared socio-economic pathways and beyond}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0907-0},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Rothrock1999,
author = {Rothrock, D. A. and Yu, Y. and Maykut, G. A.},
doi = {10.1029/1999GL010863},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {3469--3472},
title = {{Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/1999GL010863},
volume = {26},
year = {1999}
}
@article{Rougier2007,
author = {Rougier, Jonathan},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3-4},
pages = {247--264},
title = {{Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9},
volume = {81},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Rounsevell2010,
author = {Rounsevell, Mark D. A. and Metzger, Marc J.},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.63},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {606--619},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.63},
volume = {1},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Ruane2016,
abstract = {Abstract. This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.},
author = {Ruane, Alex C. and Teichmann, Claas and Arnell, Nigel W. and Carter, Timothy R. and Ebi, Kristie L. and Frieler, Katja and Goodess, Clare M. and Hewitson, Bruce and Horton, Radley and Kovats, R. Sari and Lotze, Heike K. and Mearns, Linda O. and Navarra, Antonio and Ojima, Dennis S. and Riahi, Keywan and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Themessl, Matthias and Vincent, Katharine},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3493--3515},
title = {{The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3493/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{rubel2010,
address = {Stuttgart, Germany},
author = {Rubel, Franz and Kottek, Markus},
doi = {10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0430},
journal = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
number = {2},
pages = {135--141},
publisher = {Schweizerbart Science Publishers},
title = {{Observed and projected climate shifts 1901-2100 depicted by world maps of the K{\"{o}}ppen-Geiger climate classification}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0430},
volume = {19},
year = {2010}
}
@article{F.Ruddiman1981,
author = {Ruddiman, William F. and McIntyre, Andrew},
doi = {10.1016/0031-0182(81)90097-3},
issn = {00310182},
journal = {Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology},
pages = {145--214},
title = {{The North Atlantic Ocean during the last deglaciation}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0031018281900973},
volume = {35},
year = {1981}
}
@article{Ruddiman2001,
author = {Ruddiman, William F. and Thomson, Jonathan S.},
doi = {10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00067-1},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
month = {dec},
number = {18},
pages = {1769--1777},
title = {{The case for human causes of increased atmospheric CH4 over the last 5000 years}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379101000671},
volume = {20},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Ruiz2020,
author = {Ruiz, Itxaso and Faria, S{\'{e}}rgio H. and Neumann, Marc B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.020},
issn = {14629011},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Policy},
month = {jun},
pages = {112--120},
title = {{Climate change perception: Driving forces and their interactions}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901119309530},
volume = {108},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Russo2019,
author = {Russo, Simone and Sillmann, Jana and Sippel, Sebastian and Barcikowska, Monika J. and Ghisetti, Claudia and Smid, Marek and O'Neill, Brian},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {136},
title = {{Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08070-4},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ryan2018,
abstract = {AbstractOver much of the globe, the temporal extent of meteorological records is limited, yet a wealth of data remains in paper or image form in numerous archives. To date, little attention has been given to the role that students might play in efforts to rescue these data. Here we summarize an ambitious research-led, accredited teaching experiment in which undergraduate students successfully transcribed more than 1,300 station years of daily precipitation data and associated metadata across Ireland over the period 1860?1939. We explore i) the potential for integrating data rescue activities into the classroom, ii) the ability of students to produce reliable transcriptions and, iii) the learning outcomes for students. Data previously transcribed by Met {\'{E}}ireann (Ireland?s National Meteorological Service) were used as a benchmark against which it was ascertained that students were as accurate as the professionals. Details on the assignment, its planning and execution, and student-aids used are provided. The experience highlights the benefits that can accrue for data rescue through innovative collaboration between national meteorological services and academic institutions. At the same time, students have gained valuable learning outcomes and firsthand understanding of the processes that underpin data rescue and analysis. The success of the project demonstrates the potential to extend data rescue in the classroom to other universities, thus providing both an enriched learning experience for the students and a lasting legacy to the scientific community.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0147.1},
author = {Ryan, Ciara and Duffy, Catriona and Broderick, Ciaran and Thorne, Peter W and Curley, Mary and Walsh, S{\'{e}}amus and Daly, Conor and Treanor, Mair{\'{e}}ad and Murphy, Conor},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0147.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jun},
number = {9},
pages = {1757--1764},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Integrating Data Rescue into the Classroom}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0147.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Seferian2016,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}, NO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}3{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to-model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland and Gehlen, Marion and Bopp, Laurent and Resplandy, Laure and Orr, James C. and Marti, Olivier and Dunne, John P. and Christian, James R. and Doney, Scott C. and Ilyina, Tatiana and Lindsay, Keith and Halloran, Paul R. and Heinze, Christoph and Segschneider, Joachim and Tjiputra, Jerry and Aumont, Olivier and Romanou, Anastasia},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {1827--1851},
title = {{Inconsistent strategies to spin up models in CMIP5: implications for ocean biogeochemical model performance assessment}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/1827/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Saha2010a,
author = {Saha, Suranjana and Moorthi, Shrinivas and Pan, Hua Lu and Wu, Xingren and Wang, Jiande and Nadiga, Sudhir and Tripp, Patrick and Kistler, Robert and Woollen, John and Behringer, David and Liu, Haixia and Stokes, Diane and Grumbine, Robert and Gayno, George and Wang, Jun and Hou, Yu Tai and Chuang, Hui Ya and Juang, Hann Ming H. and Sela, Joe and Iredell, Mark and Treadon, Russ and Kleist, Daryl and {Van Delst}, Paul and Keyser, Dennis and Derber, John and Ek, Michael and Meng, Jesse and Wei, Helin and Yang, Rongqian and Lord, Stephen and {Van Den Dool}, Huug and Kumar, Arun and Wang, Wanqiu and Long, Craig and Chelliah, Muthuvel and Xue, Yan and Huang, Boyin and Schemm, Jae Kyung and Ebisuzaki, Wesley and Lin, Roger and Xie, Pingping and Chen, Mingyue and Zhou, Shuntai and Higgins, Wayne and Zou, Cheng Zhi and Liu, Quanhua and Chen, Yong and Han, Yong and Cucurull, Lidia and Reynolds, Richard W. and Rutledge, Glenn and Goldberg, Mitch},
doi = {10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {8},
pages = {1015--1057},
title = {{The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis}},
volume = {91},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Samir2017,
abstract = {This paper applies the methods of multi-dimensional mathematical demography to project national populations based on alternative assumptions on future, fertility, mortality, migration and educational transitions that correspond to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) storylines. In doing so it goes a significant step beyond past population scenarios in the IPCC context which considered only total population size. By differentiating the human population not only by age and sex—as is conventionally done in demographic projections—but also by different levels of educational attainment the most fundamental aspects of human development and social change are being explicitly addressed through modeling the changing composition of populations by these three important individual characteristics. The scenarios have been defined in a collaborative effort of the international Integrated Assessment Modeling community with the medium scenario following that of a major new effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OEAW, WU) involving over 550 experts from around the world. As a result, in terms of total world population size the trajectories resulting from the five SSPs stay very close to each other until around 2030 and by the middle of the century already a visible differentiation appears with the range between the highest (SSP3) and the lowest (SSP1) trajectories spanning 1.5 billion. The range opens up much more with the SSP3 reaching 12.6 billion in 2100 and SSP1 falling to 6.9 billion which is lower than today's world population.},
author = {Samir, K. C. and Lutz, Wolfgang},
doi = {10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2014.06.004},
issn = {0959-3780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {jan},
pages = {181--192},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014001095},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Samset2016a,
author = {Samset, B. H. and Myhre, G. and Forster, P. M. and Hodnebrog, {\O}. and Andrews, T. and Faluvegi, G. and Fl{\"{a}}schner, D. and Kasoar, M. and Kharin, V. and Kirkev{\aa}g, A. and Lamarque, J.‐F. and Olivi{\'{e}}, D. and Richardson, T. and Shindell, D. and Shine, K. P. and Takemura, T. and Voulgarakis, A.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL068064},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2782--2791},
title = {{Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016GL068064},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sanchez2016,
abstract = {The importance of probabilistic weather predictions and climate projections is growing. One of the key elements of the former is stochastic physics, schemes that perturb some uncertain processes in a general circulation model (GCM), such as physical parametrizations or diffusion. They help to increase the ensemble dispersion of ensemble prediction systems (EPS) and in some cases improve certain atmospheric processes by noise-induced drifts. We have developed a new configuration of stochastic physics schemes for the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). It consists of an improved Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter v2 (SKEB2), plus the Stochastic Perturbation of Tendencies (SPT). The improvements to SKEB2 remove spurious physical artefacts, e.g. a spurious wave caused by low-wave-number perturbations, and improve the resolution sensitivity of the scheme. The SPT produces a larger ensemble spread in the Tropics than present schemes, but its impact on long-term climate budgets makes the use of conservation constraints for water vapour and energy essential. The new configuration produces a higher impact in the Tropics, increasing the ensemble spread and improving some long-standing climate biases in areas of excessive convection, whilst minimizing the negative impact on tropical processes like tropical convective waves.},
author = {Sanchez, Claudio and Williams, Keith D and Collins, Matthew},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2640},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {climate modelling,ensemble prediction,stochastic physics,tropical biases},
number = {694},
pages = {147--159},
title = {{Improved stochastic physics schemes for global weather and climate models}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.2640},
volume = {142},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sanderson2017,
abstract = {We present a weighting strategy for use with the CMIP5 multi-model archive in the fourth National Climate Assessment, which considers both skill in the climatological performance of models over North America as well as the inter-dependency of models arising from common parame-terizations or tuning practices. The method exploits information relating to the climatological mean state of a number of projection-relevant variables as well as metrics representing long-term statistics of weather extremes. The weights, once computed can be used to simply compute weighted means and significance information from an ensemble containing multiple initial condition members from potentially co-dependent models of varying skill. Two parameters in the algorithm determine the degree to which model climatologi-cal skill and model uniqueness are rewarded; these parameters are explored and final values are defended for the assessment. The influence of model weighting on projected temperature and precipitation changes is found to be moderate, partly due to a compensating effect between model skill and uniqueness. However, more aggressive skill weighting and weighting by targeted metrics is found to have a more significant effect on inferred ensemble confidence in future patterns of change for a given projection.},
author = {Sanderson, Benjamin M and Wehner, Michael and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
pages = {2379--2395},
title = {{Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sanderson2015a,
author = {Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Knutti, Reto and Caldwell, Peter},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00362.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {5171--5194},
title = {{A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00362.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Sanderson2015,
author = {Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Knutti, Reto and Caldwell, Peter},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00361.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {5150--5170},
title = {{Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00361.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Santer2017a,
author = {Santer, Benjamin D and Fyfe, John C and Pallotta, Giuliana and Flato, Gregory M and Meehl, Gerald A and England, Matthew H and Hawkins, Ed and Mann, Michael E and Painter, Jeffrey F and Bonfils, C{\'{e}}line and Cvijanovic, Ivana and Mears, Carl and Wentz, Frank J and Po-Chedley, Stephen and Fu, Qiang and Zou, Cheng-Zhi},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2973},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {478--485},
title = {{Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ngeo2973 http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2973},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Santer2003,
author = {Santer, B. D.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1084123},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jul},
number = {5632},
pages = {479--483},
title = {{Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1084123},
volume = {301},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Santer2013,
author = {Santer, B. D. and Painter, J. F. and Bonfils, C. and Mears, C. A. and Solomon, S. and Wigley, T. M. L. and Gleckler, P. J. and Schmidt, G. A. and Doutriaux, C. and Gillett, N. P. and Taylor, K. E. and Thorne, P. W. and Wentz, F. J.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1305332110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {43},
pages = {17235--17240},
title = {{Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1305332110},
volume = {110},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Santer1995,
author = {Santer, Benjamin D. and Taylor, Karl E. and Wigley, Tom M. L. and Penner, Joyce E. and Jones, Philip D. and Cubasch, Ulrich},
doi = {10.1007/BF00223722},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {2},
pages = {77--100},
title = {{Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF00223722},
volume = {12},
year = {1995}
}
@article{Santer2019,
abstract = {Large initial condition ensembles of a climate model simulation provide many different realizations of internal variability noise superimposed on an externally forced signal. They have been used to estimate signal emergence time at individual grid points, but are rarely employed to identify global fingerprints of human influence. Here we analyze 50- and 40-member ensembles performed with 2 climate models; each was run with combined human and natural forcings. We apply a pattern-based method to determine signal detection time t d in individual ensemble members. Distributions of t d are characterized by the median t d {\{} m {\}} and range t d {\{} r {\}} , computed for tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures over 1979 to 2018. Lower stratospheric cooling—primarily caused by ozone depletion—yields t d {\{} m {\}} values between 1994 and 1996, depending on model ensemble, domain (global or hemispheric), and type of noise data. For greenhouse-gas–driven tropospheric warming, larger noise and slower recovery from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to later signal detection (between 1997 and 2003). The stochastic uncertainty t d {\{} r {\}} is greater for tropospheric warming (8 to 15 y) than for stratospheric cooling (1 to 3 y). In the ensemble generated by a high climate sensitivity model with low anthropogenic aerosol forcing, simulated tropospheric warming is larger than observed; detection times for tropospheric warming signals in satellite data are within t d {\{} r {\}} ranges in 60{\%} of all cases. The corresponding number is 88{\%} for the second ensemble, which was produced by a model with even higher climate sensitivity but with large aerosol-induced cooling. Whether the latter result is physically plausible will require concerted efforts to reduce significant uncertainties in aerosol forcing.},
author = {Santer, Benjamin D. and Fyfe, John C. and Solomon, Susan and Painter, Jeffrey F. and Bonfils, C{\'{e}}line and Pallotta, Giuliana and Zelinka, Mark D.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1904586116},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {40},
pages = {19821--19827},
title = {{Quantifying stochastic uncertainty in detection time of human-caused climate signals}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1904586116},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sapiains2016,
author = {Sapiains, Rodolfo and Beeton, Robert J. S. and Walker, Iain A.},
doi = {10.1111/jasp.12378},
issn = {00219029},
journal = {Journal of Applied Social Psychology},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {483--493},
title = {{Individual responses to climate change: Framing effects on pro-environmental behaviors}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/jasp.12378},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sauer2021,
abstract = {Climate change affects precipitation patterns. Here, we investigate whether its signals are already detectable in reported river flood damages. We develop an empirical model to reconstruct observed damages and quantify the contributions of climate and socio-economic drivers to observed trends. We show that, on the level of nine world regions, trends in damages are dominated by increasing exposure and modulated by changes in vulnerability, while climate-induced trends are comparably small and mostly statistically insignificant, with the exception of South {\&} Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Asia. However, when disaggregating the world regions into subregions based on river-basins with homogenous historical discharge trends, climate contributions to damages become statistically significant globally, in Asia and Latin America. In most regions, we find monotonous climate-induced damage trends but more years of observations would be needed to distinguish between the impacts of anthropogenic climate forcing and multidecadal oscillations.},
author = {Sauer, Inga J. and Reese, Ronja and Otto, Christian and Geiger, Tobias and Willner, Sven N. and Guillod, Benoit P. and Bresch, David N. and Frieler, Katja},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-22153-9},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {climate change,climate signal,damages,fluvial,fluvial flood,hydrological simulation,precipitation patterns},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {2128},
title = {{Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22153-9},
volume = {12},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Scambos2004a,
abstract = {Ice velocities derived from five Landsat 7 images acquired between January 2000 and February 2003 show a two- to six-fold increase in centerline speed of four glaciers flowing into the now-collapsed section of the Larsen B Ice Shelf. Satellite laser altimetry from ICESat indicates the surface of Hektoria Glacier lowered by up to 38 � 6 m in a six-month period beginning one year after the break-up in March 2002. Smaller elevation losses are observed for Crane and Jorum glaciers over a later 5-month period. Two glaciers south of the collapse area, Flask and Leppard, show little change in speed or elevation. Seasonal variations in speed preceding the large post-collapse velocity increases suggest that both summer melt percolation and changes in the stress field due to shelf removal play a major role in glacier dynamics.},
author = {Scambos, T. A. and Bohlander, J. A. and Shuman, C. A. and Skvarca, P.},
doi = {10.1029/2004GL020670},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {1640 Global change: Remote sensing,1827 Hydrology: Glaciology (1863),1863 Hydrology: Snow and ice (1827)},
number = {18},
pages = {L18402},
pmid = {9844193},
title = {{Glacier acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2004GL020670},
volume = {31},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Schaller2016,
abstract = {A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and {\pounds}451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment's sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate.},
author = {Schaller, Nathalie and Kay, Alison L and Lamb, Rob and Massey, Neil R and {Van Oldenborgh}, Geert Jan and Otto, Friederike E.L. and Sparrow, Sarah N and Vautard, Robert and Yiou, Pascal and Ashpole, Ian and Bowery, Andy and Crooks, Susan M and Haustein, Karsten and Huntingford, Chris and Ingram, William J and Jones, Richard G and Legg, Tim and Miller, Jonathan and Skeggs, Jessica and Wallom, David and Weisheimer, Antje and Wilson, Simon and Stott, Peter A and Allen, Myles R},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2927},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {6},
pages = {627--634},
title = {{Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts}},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Schaller2018a,
author = {Schaller, N and Sillmann, J and Anstey, J and Fischer, E M and Grams, C M and Russo, S},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaba55},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {054015},
title = {{Influence of blocking on Northern European and Western Russian heatwaves in large climate model ensembles}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=5/a=054015?key=crossref.02f26083e85ea74962e5e3565e1be606},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Scheffer2012,
author = {Scheffer, M. and Carpenter, S. R. and Lenton, T. M. and Bascompte, J. and Brock, W. and Dakos, V. and van de Koppel, J. and van de Leemput, I. A. and Levin, S. A. and van Nes, E. H. and Pascual, M. and Vandermeer, J.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1225244},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {oct},
number = {6105},
pages = {344--348},
title = {{Anticipating Critical Transitions}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1225244},
volume = {338},
year = {2012}
}
@article{article,
author = {Schepers, Dinand and de Boisseson, Eric and Eresmaa, Reima and Lupu, Cristina and Rosnay, Patricia},
doi = {10.21957/sp619ds74g},
journal = {ECMWF Newsletter},
pages = {32--37},
title = {{CERA-SAT: A coupled satellite-era reanalysis}},
url = {https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/155/meteorology/cera-sat-coupled-satellite-era-reanalysis},
volume = {155},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Scherllin-Pirscher2017,
abstract = {Abstract High-resolution measurements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) provide atmospheric profiles with independent information on altitude and pressure. This unique property is of crucial advantage when analyzing atmospheric characteristics that require joint knowledge of altitude and pressure or other thermodynamic atmospheric variables. Here we introduce and demonstrate the utility of this independent information from RO and discuss the computation, uncertainty, and use of RO atmospheric profiles on isohypsic coordinates?mean sea level altitude and geopotential height?as well as on thermodynamic coordinates (pressure and potential temperature). Using geopotential height as vertical grid, we give information on errors of RO-derived temperature, pressure, and potential temperature profiles and provide an empirical error model which accounts for seasonal and latitudinal variations. The observational uncertainty of individual temperature/pressure/potential temperature profiles is about 0.7 K/0.15{\%}/1.4 K in the tropopause region. It gradually increases into the stratosphere and decreases toward the lower troposphere. This decrease is due to the increasing influence of background information. The total climatological error of mean atmospheric fields is, in general, dominated by the systematic error component. We use sampling error-corrected climatological fields to demonstrate the power of having different and accurate vertical coordinates available. As examples we analyze characteristics of the location of the tropopause for geopotential height, pressure, and potential temperature coordinates as well as seasonal variations of the midlatitude jet stream core. This highlights the broad applicability of RO and the utility of its versatile vertical geolocation for investigating the vertical structure of the troposphere and stratosphere.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025902},
author = {Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara and Steiner, Andrea K and Kirchengast, Gottfried and Schw{\"{a}}rz, Marc and Leroy, Stephen S},
doi = {10.1002/2016JD025902},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {atmospheric structure,different vertical coordinates,radio occultation,uncertainty},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1595--1616},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The power of vertical geolocation of atmospheric profiles from GNSS radio occultation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025902},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Scherrer2020,
author = {Scherrer, Simon C},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab702d},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {044005},
title = {{Temperature monitoring in mountain regions using reanalyses: lessons from the Alps}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702d},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Schiemann2020,
author = {Schiemann, R and Athanasiadis, P and Barriopedro, D and Doblas-Reyes, F and Lohmann, K and Roberts, M J and Sein, D V and Roberts, C D and Terray, L and Vidale, P L},
doi = {10.5194/wcd-1-277-2020},
journal = {Weather and Climate Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {277--292},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models: evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase{\~{}}5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution}},
url = {https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/277/2020/},
volume = {1},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Schleussner2016a,
abstract = {The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we present an overview of science and policy aspects related to this goal and analyse the implications for mitigation pathways. We show examples of discernible differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming. At the same time, most available low emission scenarios at least temporarily exceed the 1.5 °C limit before 2100. The legacy of temperature overshoots and the feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, or below, thus become central elements of a post-Paris science agenda. The near-term mitigation targets set by countries for the 2020–2030 period are insufficient to secure the achievement of the temperature goal. An increase in mitigation ambition for this period will determine the Agreement's effectiveness in achieving its temperature goal.},
author = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Rogelj, Joeri and Schaeffer, Michiel and Lissner, Tabea and Licker, Rachel and Fischer, Erich M. and Knutti, Reto and Levermann, Anders and Frieler, Katja and Hare, William},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3096},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {827--835},
title = {{Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3096},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Schleussner2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2{\&}deg;C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5{\&}deg;C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5{\&}deg;C and 2{\&}deg;C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5{\&}deg;C and 2{\&}deg;C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5{\&}deg;C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2{\&}deg;C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90{\%} in 2050 and projected to decline to 70{\%} by 2100 for a 1.5{\&}deg;C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9{\%} to 17{\%} between 1.5{\&}deg;C and 2{\&}deg;C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11{\%}. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2{\&}deg;C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5{\&}deg;C scenario. In a 1.5{\&}deg;C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30{\%} compared to a 2{\&}deg;C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5{\&}deg;C and 2{\&}deg;C warming.},
author = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Lissner, Tabea K. and Fischer, Erich M. and Wohland, Jan and Perrette, Mah{\'{e}} and Golly, Antonius and Rogelj, Joeri and Childers, Katelin and Schewe, Jacob and Frieler, Katja and Mengel, Matthias and Hare, William and Schaeffer, Michiel},
doi = {10.5194/esd-7-327-2016},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {327--351},
title = {{Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/7/327/2016/},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Schleussner2020,
author = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Fyson, Claire L.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0729-9},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {272--272},
title = {{Scenarios science needed in UNFCCC periodic review}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0729-9},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{gmd-10-3207-2017,
author = {Schmidt, G A and Bader, D and Donner, L J and Elsaesser, G S and Golaz, J.-C. and Hannay, C and Molod, A and Neale, R B and Saha, S},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-3207-2017},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {9},
pages = {3207--3223},
title = {{Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/3207/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Schneider1994,
author = {Schneider, S. H.},
doi = {10.1126/science.263.5145.341},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jan},
number = {5145},
pages = {341--347},
title = {{Detecting Climatic Change Signals: Are There Any “Fingerprints”?}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.263.5145.341},
volume = {263},
year = {1994}
}
@article{Schneider1975,
author = {Schneider, Stephen H.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<2060:OTCDC>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0022-4928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {2060--2066},
title = {{On the Carbon Dioxide–Climate Confusion}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469{\%}281975{\%}29032{\%}3C2060{\%}3AOTCDC{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {32},
year = {1975}
}
@article{Schneider2019,
abstract = {Stratocumulus clouds cover 20{\%} of the low-latitude oceans and are especially prevalent in the subtropics. They cool the Earth by shading large portions of its surface from sunlight. However, as their dynamical scales are too small to be resolvable in global climate models, predictions of their response to greenhouse warming have remained uncertain. Here we report how stratocumulus decks respond to greenhouse warming in large-eddy simulations that explicitly resolve cloud dynamics in a representative subtropical region. In the simulations, stratocumulus decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm. In addition to the warming from rising CO2 levels, this instability triggers a surface warming of about 8 K globally and 10 K in the subtropics. Once the stratocumulus decks have broken up, they only re-form once CO2 concentrations drop substantially below the level at which the instability first occurred. Climate transitions that arise from this instability may have contributed importantly to hothouse climates and abrupt climate changes in the geological past. Such transitions to a much warmer climate may also occur in the future if CO2 levels continue to rise.},
author = {Schneider, Tapio and Kaul, Colleen M and Pressel, Kyle G},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0310-1},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {3},
pages = {163--167},
title = {{Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0310-1},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Schurer2017,
abstract = {During the Paris conference in 2015, nations of the world strengthened the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to holding 'the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C' (ref.). However, 'pre-industrial' was not defined. Here we investigate the implications of different choices of the pre-industrial baseline on the likelihood of exceeding these two temperature thresholds. We find that for the strongest mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and a medium scenario RCP4.5, the probability of exceeding the thresholds and timing of exceedance is highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline; for example, the probability of crossing 1.5 °C by the end of the century under RCP2.6 varies from 61{\%} to 88{\%} depending on how the baseline is defined. In contrast, in the scenario with no mitigation, RCP8.5, both thresholds will almost certainly be exceeded by the middle of the century with the definition of the pre-industrial baseline of less importance. Allowable carbon emissions for threshold stabilization are similarly highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline. For stabilization at 2 °C, allowable emissions decrease by as much as 40{\%} when earlier than nineteenth-century climates are considered as a baseline.},
author = {Schurer, Andrew P. and Mann, Michael E. and Hawkins, Ed and Tett, Simon F. B. and Hegerl, Gabriele C.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3345},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {563--567},
title = {{Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3345},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Schuur2015b,
author = {Schuur, E. A. G. and McGuire, A. D. and Sch{\"{a}}del, C. and Grosse, G. and Harden, J. W. and Hayes, D. J. and Hugelius, G. and Koven, C. D. and Kuhry, P. and Lawrence, D. M. and Natali, S. M. and Olefeldt, D. and Romanovsky, V. E. and Schaefer, K. and Turetsky, M. R. and Treat, C. C. and Vonk, J. E.},
doi = {10.1038/nature14338},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {apr},
number = {7546},
pages = {171--179},
title = {{Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14338},
volume = {520},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Schwarber2019,
abstract = {Abstract. Simple climate models (SCMs) are numerical representations of the Earth's gas cycles and climate system. SCMs are easy to use and computationally inexpensive, making them an ideal tool in both scientific and decision-making contexts (e.g., complex climate model emulation, parameter estimation experiments, climate metric calculations, and probabilistic analyses). Despite their prolific use, the fundamental responses of SCMs are often not directly characterized. In this study, we use fundamental impulse tests of three chemical species (CO2, CH4, and black carbon – BC) to understand the fundamental gas cycle and climate system responses of several comprehensive (Hector v2.0, MAGICC 5.3, MAGICC 6.0) and idealized (FAIR v1.0, AR5-IR) SCMs. We find that while idealized SCMs are widely used, they fail to capture the magnitude and timescales of global mean climate responses under emissions perturbations, which can produce biased temperature results. Comprehensive SCMs, which have physically based nonlinear forcing and carbon cycle representations, show improved responses compared to idealized SCMs. Even the comprehensive SCMs, however, fail to capture the response timescales to BC emission perturbations seen recently in two general circulation models. Some comprehensive SCMs also generally respond faster than more complex models to a 4×CO2 concentration perturbation, although this was not evident for lower perturbation levels. These results suggest where improvements should be made to SCMs. Further, we demonstrate here a set of fundamental tests that we recommend as a standard evaluation suite for any SCM. Fundamental impulse tests allow users to understand differences in model responses and the impact of model selection on results.},
author = {Schwarber, Adria K. and Smith, Steven J. and Hartin, Corinne A. and Vega-Westhoff, Benjamin Aaron and Sriver, Ryan},
doi = {10.5194/esd-10-729-2019},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {nov},
number = {4},
pages = {729--739},
title = {{Evaluating climate emulation: fundamental impulse testing of simple climate models}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2018-63/ https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/729/2019/},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Schweizer2014,
author = {Schweizer, Vanessa J. and O'Neill, Brian C.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0908-z},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {431--445},
title = {{Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0908-z},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Scott2018,
abstract = {The aim of the paper is to present a story about the 2015 to early 2017 Windhoek drought in the context of climate change while using the narrative approach. The story that is presented here is derived from the engagement of participants in a transdisciplinary, co-productive workshop, the Windhoek Learning Lab 1 (March 2017), as part of the FRACTAL Research Programme. The results show that the story starts with the ‘complication' where the drought had reached crisis levels where the water demand increasingly exceeded the supply in the face of the drought. The City of Windhoek (CoW) was unable to address the problem, particularly the recharging of the Windhoek aquifer due to lack of funding. Phase 2 then shows four reactions to the drought: water conservation by water demand management; a Water Saving campaign; the Windhoek Managed Aquifer Recharge Scheme; and, the setting up of the Cabinet Technical Committee of Supply Security. The resolution of the story, Phase 4, is when the national government instructs NamWater to provide the funds for CoW to complete the recharging of the aquifer, which supplied water to the city at the last minute at the end of 2016. The final situation of the story is that ongoing collaborative work by CoW with FRACTAL on the city's burning issues is planned to integrate climate change into future decision making for the longer term. The main actors in the story are the Ministry of Agriculture and NamWater as hero and villain, and CoW a hero, with the victims of the story, the residents of informal settlements. The main learnings from this story are that the lack of decentralization of power and resources serve to exacerbate water crises at the local level and hamper climate adaptation, despite a proactive and innovative local municipality. The paper also shows that the narrative approach provides the thread of the story to simplify a very complex set of arrangements and contradictions.},
author = {Scott, Dianne and Iipinge, Kornelia and Mfune, John and Muchadenyika, Davison and Makuti, Olavi and Ziervogel, Gina},
doi = {10.3390/w10101366},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
month = {sep},
number = {10},
pages = {1366},
title = {{The Story of Water in Windhoek: A Narrative Approach to Interpreting a Transdisciplinary Process}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/10/1366},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sellar2019,
abstract = {Abstract We document the development of the first version of the U.K. Earth System Model UKESM1. The model represents a major advance on its predecessor HadGEM2-ES, with enhancements to all component models and new feedback mechanisms. These include a new core physical model with a well-resolved stratosphere; terrestrial biogeochemistry with coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles and enhanced land management; tropospheric-stratospheric chemistry allowing the holistic simulation of radiative forcing from ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide; two-moment, five-species, modal aerosol; and ocean biogeochemistry with two-way coupling to the carbon cycle and atmospheric aerosols. The complexity of coupling between the ocean, land, and atmosphere physical climate and biogeochemical cycles in UKESM1 is unprecedented for an Earth system model. We describe in detail the process by which the coupled model was developed and tuned to achieve acceptable performance in key physical and Earth system quantities and discuss the challenges involved in mitigating biases in a model with complex connections between its components. Overall, the model performs well, with a stable pre-industrial state and good agreement with observations in the latter period of its historical simulations. However, global mean surface temperature exhibits stronger-than-observed cooling from 1950 to 1970, followed by rapid warming from 1980 to 2014. Metrics from idealized simulations show a high climate sensitivity relative to previous generations of models: Equilibrium climate sensitivity is 5.4 K, transient climate response ranges from 2.68 to 2.85 K, and transient climate response to cumulative emissions is 2.49 to 2.66 K TtC−1.},
author = {Sellar, Alistair A and Jones, Colin G. and Mulcahy, Jane P and Tang, Yongming and Yool, Andrew and Wiltshire, Andy and O'Connor, Fiona M and Stringer, Marc and Hill, Richard and Palmieri, Julien and Woodward, Stephanie and Mora, Lee and Kuhlbrodt, Till and Rumbold, Steven T and Kelley, Douglas I and Ellis, Rich and Johnson, Colin E. and Walton, Jeremy and Abraham, Nathan Luke and Andrews, Martin B. and Andrews, Timothy and Archibald, Alex T and Berthou, S{\'{e}}gol{\`{e}}ne and Burke, Eleanor and Blockley, Ed and Carslaw, Ken and Dalvi, Mohit and Edwards, John and Folberth, Gerd A and Gedney, Nicola and Griffiths, Paul T and Harper, Anna B and Hendry, Maggie A and Hewitt, Alan J and Johnson, Ben and Jones, Andy and Jones, Chris D and Keeble, James and Liddicoat, Spencer and Morgenstern, Olaf and Parker, Robert J and Predoi, Valeriu and Robertson, Eddy and Siahaan, Antony and Smith, Robin S and Swaminathan, Ranjini and Woodhouse, Matthew T and Zeng, Guang and Zerroukat, Mohamed},
doi = {10.1029/2019MS001739},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {4513--4558},
title = {{UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth System Model}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001739 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001739},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/1520-0450,
abstract = {Abstract A relatively simple numerical model of the energy balance of the earth-atmosphere is set up and applied. The dependent variable is the average annual sea level temperature in 10° latitude belts. This is expressed basically as a function of the solar constant, the planetary albedo, the transparency of the atmosphere to infrared radiation, and the turbulent exchange coefficients for the atmosphere and the oceans. The major conclusions of the analysis are that removing the arctic ice cap would increase annual average polar temperatures by no more than 7C, that a decrease of the solar constant by 2–5{\%} might be sufficient to initiate another ice age, and that man's increasing industrial activities may eventually lead to a global climate much warmer than today.},
author = {Sellers, William D.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008<0392:AGCMBO>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0021-8952},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {392--400},
title = {{A Global Climatic Model Based on the Energy Balance of the Earth–Atmosphere System}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008{\%}3C0392:AGCMBO{\%}3E2.0.CO;2},
volume = {8},
year = {1969}
}
@article{Seneviratne2018,
abstract = {This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5C versus 2C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5C versus 2C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs ...},
author = {Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Wartenburger, Richard and Guillod, Benoit P. and Hirsch, Annette L. and Vogel, Martha M. and Brovkin, Victor and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Schaller, Nathalie and Boysen, Lena and Calvin, Katherine V. and Doelman, Jonathan and Greve, Peter and Havlik, Petr and Humpen{\"{o}}der, Florian and Krisztin, Tamas and Mitchell, Daniel and Popp, Alexander and Riahi, Keywan and Rogelj, Joeri and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Sillmann, Jana and Stehfest, Elke},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2016.0450},
issn = {1364-503X},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
keywords = {1.5C scenarios,climate extremes,climate projections,land-use changes,landclimate interactions,regional climate change},
month = {may},
number = {2119},
pages = {20160450},
publisher = {The Royal Society Publishing},
title = {{Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C}},
url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/lookup/doi/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450},
volume = {376},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Seneviratne2016,
abstract = {Targets for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide are related to regional changes in climate extremes rather than to changes in global mean temperature, in order to convey their urgency better to individual countries.},
author = {Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Donat, Markus G. and Pitman, Andy J. and Knutti, Reto and Wilby, Robert L.},
doi = {10.1038/nature16542},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Climate,Climate change,change impacts,change mitigation},
month = {jan},
number = {7587},
pages = {477--483},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature16542},
volume = {529},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Seneviratne2020,
author = {Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Hauser, Mathias},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001474},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {e2019EF001474},
title = {{Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019EF001474},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sera2020,
author = {Sera, Francesco and Hashizume, Masahiro and Honda, Yasushi and Lavigne, Eric and Schwartz, Joel and Zanobetti, Antonella and Tobias, Aurelio and I{\~{n}}iguez, Carmen and Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M. and Blangiardo, Marta and Armstrong, Ben and Gasparrini, Antonio},
doi = {10.1097/EDE.0000000000001241},
issn = {1044-3983},
journal = {Epidemiology},
month = {nov},
number = {6},
pages = {779--787},
title = {{Air Conditioning and Heat-related Mortality}},
url = {https://journals.lww.com/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001241},
volume = {31},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Setzer2019,
author = {Setzer, Joana and Vanhala, Lisa C.},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.580},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {e580},
title = {{Climate change litigation: A review of research on courts and litigants in climate governance}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.580},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sexton2019,
abstract = {The main aim of this two-part study is to use a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) to select plausible and diverse variants of a relatively expensive climate model for use in climate projections. In this first part, the extent to which climate biases develop at weather forecast timescales is assessed with two PPEs, which are based on 5-day forecasts and 10-year simulations with a relatively coarse resolution (N96) atmosphere-only model. Both ensembles share common parameter combinations and strong emergent relationships are found for a wide range of variables between the errors on two timescales. These relationships between the PPEs are demonstrated at several spatial scales from global (using mean square errors), to regional (using pattern correlations), and to individual grid boxes where a large fraction of them show positive correlations. The study confirms more robustly than in previous studies that investigating the errors on weather timescales provides an affordable way to identify and filter out model variants that perform poorly at short timescales and are likely to perform poorly at longer timescales too. The use of PPEs also provides additional information for model development, by identifying parameters and processes responsible for model errors at the two different timescales, and systematic errors that cannot be removed by any combination of parameter values.},
author = {Sexton, D M H and Karmalkar, A V and Murphy, J M and Williams, K D and Boutle, I A and Morcrette, C J and Stirling, A J and Vosper, S B},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04625-3},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {989--1022},
title = {{Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part 1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04625-3},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sexton2012a,
author = {Sexton, David M. H. and Murphy, James M. and Collins, Mat and Webb, Mark J.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-011-1208-9},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jun},
number = {11-12},
pages = {2513--2542},
title = {{Multivariate probabilistic projections using imperfect climate models part I: outline of methodology}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-011-1208-9},
volume = {38},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Shackleton1973,
abstract = {Core Vema 28-238 preserves an excellent oxygen isotope and magnetic stratigraphy and is shown to contain undisturbed sediments deposited continuously through the past 870,000 yr. Detailed correlation with sequences described by Emiliani in the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean is demonstrated. The boundaries of 22 stages representing alternating times of high and low Northern Hemisphere ice volume are recognized and dated. The record is interpreted in terms of Northern Hemisphere ice accumulation, and is used to estimate the range of temperature variation in the Caribbean.},
author = {Shackleton, Nicholas John and Opdyke, Neil D.},
doi = {10.1016/0033-5894(73)90052-5},
isbn = {0033-5894},
issn = {0033-5894},
journal = {Quaternary Research},
month = {jun},
number = {01},
pages = {39--55},
pmid = {1414},
title = {{Oxygen Isotope and Palaeomagnetic Stratigraphy of Equatorial Pacific Core V28-238: Oxygen Isotope Temperatures and Ice Volumes on a 105 Year and 106 Year Scale}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0033589400035766/type/journal{\_}article},
volume = {3},
year = {1973}
}
@article{Shan2020,
author = {Shan, Yuli and Ou, Jiamin and Wang, Daoping and Zeng, Zhao and Zhang, Shaohui and Guan, Dabo and Hubacek, Klaus},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-00977-5},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {200--206},
title = {{Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00977-5},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}
@techreport{Shapiro2010,
address = {Amsterdam, The Netherlands},
annote = {Times cited: 7},
author = {Shapiro, Harold T and Diab, R and {de Brito Cruz}, C H and Cropper, M L and Fang, J and Fresco, L O and Manabe, S and Mehta, G and Molina, M and Williams, P and Winnacker, E.-L. and Zakri, A H},
doi = {https://www.interacademies.org/publication/climate-change-assessments-review-processes-procedures-ipcc},
isbn = {9789069846170},
publisher = {InterAcademy Council},
title = {{Climate change assessments: Review of the processes and procedures of the IPCC}},
url = {https://www.interacademies.org/publication/climate-change-assessments-review-processes-procedures-ipcc},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Shepherd2018,
author = {Shepherd, Theodore G. and Boyd, Emily and Calel, Raphael A. and Chapman, Sandra C. and Dessai, Suraje and Dima-West, Ioana M. and Fowler, Hayley J. and James, Rachel and Maraun, Douglas and Martius, Olivia and Senior, Catherine A. and Sobel, Adam H. and Stainforth, David A. and Tett, Simon F. B. and Trenberth, Kevin E. and van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M. and Watkins, Nicholas W. and Wilby, Robert L. and Zenghelis, Dimitri A.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {dec},
number = {3-4},
pages = {555--571},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9},
volume = {151},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Shepherd2012,
abstract = {We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 T 49, +14 T 43, –65 T 26, and –20 T 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 T 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {NIHMS150003},
author = {Shepherd, Andrew and Ivins, Erik R. and {Geruo A} and Barletta, Valentina R. and Bentley, Mike J. and Bettadpur, Srinivas and Briggs, Kate H. and Bromwich, David H. and Forsberg, Ren{\'{e}} and Galin, Natalia and Horwath, Martin and Jacobs, Stan and Joughin, Ian and King, Matt A. and Lenaerts, J. T. M. and Li, Jilu and Ligtenberg, S. R. M. and Luckman, Adrian and Luthcke, Scott B. and McMillan, Malcolm and Meister, Rakia and Milne, Glenn and Mouginot, Jeremie and Muir, Alan and Nicolas, Julien P. and Paden, John and Payne, Antony J. and Pritchard, Hamish and Rignot, Eric and Rott, Helmut and Sorensen, L. S. and Scambos, Ted A. and Scheuchl, Bernd and Schrama, E. J. O. and Smith, Ben and Sundal, Aud V. and van Angelen, J. H. and van de Berg, W. J. and van den Broeke, M. R. and Vaughan, David G. and Velicogna, Isabella and Wahr, John and Whitehouse, Pippa L. and Wingham, Duncan J. and Yi, Donghui and Young, Duncan and Zwally, H. Jay},
doi = {10.1126/science.1228102},
eprint = {NIHMS150003},
isbn = {1095-9203 (Electronic)$\backslash$r0036-8075 (Linking)},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {nov},
number = {6111},
pages = {1183--1189},
pmid = {23197528},
title = {{A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1228102},
volume = {338},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Shepherd2016,
author = {Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {28--38},
title = {{A Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y},
volume = {2},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Shepherd2019,
author = {Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1098/rspa.2019.0013},
issn = {1364-5021},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {2225},
pages = {20190013},
title = {{Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2019.0013},
volume = {475},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Shepherd2020a,
abstract = {Climate change is a global problem, yet it is experienced at the local scale, in ways that are both place-specific and specific to the accidents of weather history. This article takes the dichotomy between the global and the local as a starting point to develop a critique of the normative approach within climate science, which is global in various ways and thereby fails to bring meaning to the local. The article discusses the ethical choices implicit in the current paradigm of climate prediction, how irreducible uncertainty at the local scale can be managed by suitable reframing of the scientific questions, and some particular epistemic considerations that apply to climate change in the global South. The article argues for an elevation of the narrative and for a demotion of the probabilistic from its place of privilege in the construction and communication of our understanding of global warming and its local consequences.},
author = {Shepherd, Theodore G. and Sobel, Adam H.},
doi = {10.1215/1089201X-8185983},
issn = {1089-201X},
journal = {Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {7--16},
title = {{Localness in Climate Change}},
url = {https://read.dukeupress.edu/cssaame/article/40/1/7/164150/Localness-in-Climate-Change},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Shepherd2020b,
author = {Shepherd, Andrew and Ivins, Erik and Rignot, Eric and Smith, Ben and van den Broeke, Michiel and Velicogna, Isabella and Whitehouse, Pippa and Briggs, Kate and Joughin, Ian and Krinner, Gerhard and Others},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {mar},
number = {7798},
pages = {233--239},
title = {{Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1855-2},
volume = {579},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Shepherd2018c,
author = {Shepherd, Andrew and Ivins, Erik and Rignot, Eric and Smith, Ben and van den Broeke, Michiel and Velicogna, Isabella and Whitehouse, Pippa and Briggs, Kate and Joughin, Ian and Krinner, Gerhard and Others},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jun},
number = {7709},
pages = {219--222},
title = {{Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0179-y},
volume = {558},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sherley2014a,
abstract = {Targeting messages to the different segments of a population is necessary to achieve support for policy addressing climate change. Finer segmentation and archetypal prototyping may be advantageous to provide an in-depth understanding of the most politically-salient segments. The research, conducted in Australia, used quantitative analysis to identify subsegments and prototypical respondents, followed by Jungian-style in-depth interviews to reveal the responses of segment representatives to different marketing stimuli. The results suggest that there are challenges in achieving majority support for action against climate change, but there are archetypal words and images that may garner action. {\textcopyright} Taylor {\&} Francis Group, LLC.},
author = {Sherley, Chris and Morrison, Mark and Duncan, Roderick and Parton, Kevin},
doi = {10.1080/10495142.2014.918792},
issn = {1049-5142},
journal = {Journal of Nonprofit {\&} Public Sector Marketing},
keywords = {climate change,environmental communications,prototypes,segmentation},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {258--280},
title = {{Using Segmentation and Prototyping in Engaging Politically-Salient Climate-Change Household Segments}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10495142.2014.918792},
volume = {26},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Sherwood2015a,
abstract = {AbstractThe traditional forcing–feedback framework has provided an indispensable basis for discussing global climate changes. However, as analysis of model behavior has become more detailed, shortcomings and ambiguities in the framework have become more evident, and physical effects unaccounted for by the traditional framework have become interesting. In particular, the new concept of adjustments, which are responses to forcings that are not mediated by the global-mean temperature, has emerged. This concept, related to the older ones of climate efficacy and stratospheric adjustment, is a more physical way of capturing unique responses to specific forcings. We present a pedagogical review of the adjustment concept, why it is important, and how it can be used. The concept is particularly useful for aerosols, where it helps to organize what has become a complex array of forcing mechanisms. It also helps clarify issues around cloud and hydrological response, transient versus equilibrium climate change, and ge...},
author = {Sherwood, Steven C. and Bony, Sandrine and Boucher, Olivier and Bretherton, Chris and Forster, Piers M. and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Stevens, Bjorn and Sherwood, Steven C. and Bony, Sandrine and Boucher, Olivier and Bretherton, Chris and Forster, Piers M. and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Stevens, Bjorn},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00167.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {217--228},
title = {{Adjustments in the Forcing-Feedback Framework for Understanding Climate Change}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00167.1},
volume = {96},
year = {2015}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2320.1,
abstract = { Abstract Results are presented from a new homogenization of data since 1959 from 527 radiosonde stations. This effort differs from previous ones by employing an approach specifically designed to minimize systematic errors in adjustment, by including wind shear as well as temperature, by seasonally resolving adjustments, and by using neither satellite information nor station metadata. Relatively few artifacts were detected in wind shear, and associated adjustments were indistinguishable from random adjustments. Temperature artifacts were detected most often in the late 1980s–early 1990s. Uncertainty was characterized from variations within an ensemble of homogenizations and used to test goodness of fit with satellite data using reduced chi squared. The meridional variations of zonally aggregated temperature trend since 1979 moved significantly closer to those of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) after data adjustment. Adjusted data from 5°S to 20°N continue to show relatively weak warming, but the error is quite large, and the trends are inconsistent with those at other latitudes. Overall, the adjusted trends are close to those of MSU for the temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT). For channel 2, they are consistent with two analyses (Remote Sensing Systems, p = 0.54, and the University of Maryland, p = 0.32) showing the strongest warming but not with the University of Alabama dataset (p = 0.0001). The troposphere warms at least as strongly as the surface, with local warming maxima at 300 hPa in the tropics and in the boundary layer of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (ENH). Tropospheric warming since 1959 is almost hemispherically symmetric, but since 1979 it is significantly stronger in ENH and weaker in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (ESH). ESH trends are relatively uncertain because of poor sampling. Stratospheric cooling also remains stronger than indicated by MSU and likely excessive. While this effort appears not to have detected all artifacts, trends appear to be systematically improved. Stronger warming is shown in the Northern Hemisphere where sampling is best. Several suggestions are made for future attempts. These results support the hypothesis that trends in wind data are relatively uncorrupted by artifacts compared to temperature, and should be exploited in future homogenization efforts. },
author = {Sherwood, Steven C. and Meyer, Cathryn L. and Allen, Robert J. and Titchner, Holly A.},
doi = {10.1175/2008JCLI2320.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {5336--5352},
title = {{Robust Tropospheric Warming Revealed by Iteratively Homogenized Radiosonde Data}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2320.1 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2320.1},
volume = {21},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Sherwood2020,
author = {Sherwood, S. C. and Webb, M. J. and Annan, J. D. and Armour, K. C. and Forster, P. M. and Hargreaves, J. C. and Hegerl, G. and Klein, S. A. and Marvel, K. D. and Rohling, E. J. and Watanabe, M. and Andrews, T. and Braconnot, P. and Bretherton, C. S. and Foster, G. L. and Hausfather, Z. and Heydt, A. S. and Knutti, R. and Mauritsen, T. and Norris, J. R. and Proistosescu, C. and Rugenstein, M. and Schmidt, G. A. and Tokarska, K. B. and Zelinka, M. D.},
doi = {10.1029/2019RG000678},
issn = {8755-1209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {e2019RG000678},
title = {{An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019RG000678},
volume = {58},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Shi2017b,
abstract = {Many institutions worldwide have developed ocean reanalyses systems (ORAs) utilizing a variety of ocean models and assimilation techniques. However, the quality of salinity reanalyses arising from the various ORAs has not yet been comprehensively assessed. In this study, we assess the upper ocean salinity content (depth-averaged over 0–700 m) from 14 ORAs and 3 objective ocean analysis systems (OOAs) as part of the Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project. Our results show that the best agreement between estimates of salinity from different ORAs is obtained in the tropical Pacific, likely due to relatively abundant atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The largest disagreement in salinity reanalyses is in the Southern Ocean along the Antarctic circumpolar current as a consequence of the sparseness of both atmospheric and oceanic observations in this region. The West Pacific warm pool is the largest region where the signal to noise ratio of reanalysed salinity anomalies is {\textgreater}1. Therefore, the current salinity reanalyses in the tropical Pacific Ocean may be more reliable than those in the Southern Ocean and regions along the western boundary currents. Moreover, we found that the assimilation of salinity in ocean regions with relatively strong ocean fronts is still a common problem as seen in most ORAs. The impact of the Argo data on the salinity reanalyses is visible, especially within the upper 500 m, where the interannual variability is large. The increasing trend in global-averaged salinity anomalies can only be found within the top 0–300 m layer, but with quite large diversity among different ORAs. Beneath the 300 m depth, the global-averaged salinity anomalies from most ORAs switch their trends from a slightly growing trend before 2002 to a decreasing trend after 2002. The rapid switch in the trend is most likely an artefact of the dramatic change in the observing system due to the implementation of Argo.},
author = {Shi, L and Alves, O and Wedd, R and Balmaseda, M A and Chang, Y and Chepurin, G and Ferry, N and Fujii, Y and Gaillard, F and Good, S A and Guinehut, S and Haines, K and Hernandez, F and Lee, T and Palmer, M and Peterson, K A and Masuda, S and Storto, A and Toyoda, T and Valdivieso, M and Vernieres, G and Wang, X and Yin, Y},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2868-7},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {1009--1029},
title = {{An assessment of upper ocean salinity content from the Ocean Reanalyses Inter-comparison Project (ORA-IP)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2868-7},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{esd-6-525-2015,
author = {Shine, K P and Allan, R P and Collins, W J and Fuglestvedt, J S},
doi = {10.5194/esd-6-525-2015},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {2},
pages = {525--540},
title = {{Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/6/525/2015/},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Shiogama2014,
abstract = {Abstract To explore both the parametric and structural uncertainties of climate sensitivity (CS), we have proposed a new general circulation model (GCM) ensemble termed the multi-parameter multi-physics ensemble (MPMPE). We used eight multi-physics ensemble (MPE) models in which the MIROC5 physics schemes were replaced by those of MIROC3. MPMPE consisted of perturbed-physics ensembles in which the parameter values were swept for each MPE model. MPMPE resulted in a wide range of CS, which was related to the shortwave cloud feedback (SWcld). Coupling between low- and mid-level clouds controlled the differences in the parametric spread of SWcld among the MPE models.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/asl2.472},
author = {Shiogama, Hideo and Watanabe, Masahiro and Ogura, Tomoo and Yokohata, Tokuta and Kimoto, Masahide},
doi = {10.1002/asl2.472},
issn = {1530-261X},
journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
keywords = {climate sensitivity,cloud feedback,ensemble},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {97--102},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Multi-parameter multi-physics ensemble (MPMPE): a new approach exploring the uncertainties of climate sensitivity}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.472},
volume = {15},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Siddall2003,
author = {Siddall, M. and Rohling, E. J. and Almogi-Labin, A. and Hemleben, Ch. and Meischner, D. and Schmelzer, I. and Smeed, D. A.},
doi = {10.1038/nature01690},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jun},
number = {6942},
pages = {853--858},
title = {{Sea-level fluctuations during the last glacial cycle}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature01690},
volume = {423},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Sillmann2013,
author = {Sillmann, J. and Kharin, V. V. and Zhang, X. and Zwiers, F. W. and Bronaugh, D.},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50203},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1716--1733},
title = {{Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jgrd.50203},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Sillmann2021,
author = {Sillmann, Jana and Shepherd, Theodore G. and van den Hurk, Bart and Hazeleger, Wilco and Martius, Olivia and Slingo, Julia and Zscheischler, Jakob},
doi = {10.1029/2020EF001783},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {e2020EF001783},
title = {{Event‐Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001783},
volume = {9},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Simmons2015,
author = {Simmons, Adrian J. and Poli, Paul},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2422},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {689},
pages = {1147--1162},
title = {{Arctic warming in ERA-Interim and other analyses}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2422},
volume = {141},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Skeie2017,
abstract = {The politically contentious issue of calculating countries' contributions to climate change is strongly dependent on methodological choices. Different principles can be applied for distributing efforts for reducing human-induced global warming. According to the 'Brazilian Proposal', industrialized countries would reduce emissions proportional to their historical contributions to warming. This proposal was based on the assumption that the political process would lead to a global top-down agreement. The Paris Agreement changed the role of historical responsibilities. Whereas the agreement refers to equity principles, differentiation of mitigation efforts is delegated to each country, as countries will submit new national contributions every five years without any international negotiation. It is likely that considerations of historical contributions and distributive fairness will continue to play a key role, but increasingly so in a national setting. Contributions to warming can be used as a background for negotiations to inform and justify positions, and may also be useful for countries' own assessment of what constitutes reasonable and fair contributions to limiting warming. Despite the fact that the decision from COP21 explicitly rules out compensation in the context of loss and damage, it is likely that considerations of historical responsibility will also play a role in future discussions. However, methodological choices have substantial impacts on calculated contributions to warming, including rank-ordering of contributions, and thus support the view that there is no single correct answer to the question of how much each country has contributed. There are fundamental value-related and ethical questions that cannot be answered through a single set of calculated contributions. Thus, analyses of historical contributions should not present just one set of results, but rather present a spectrum of results showing how the calculated contributions vary with a broad set of choices. Our results clearly expose some of the core issues related to climate responsibility.},
author = {Skeie, Ragnhild B. and Fuglestvedt, Jan and Berntsen, Terje and Peters, Glen P. and Andrew, Robbie and Allen, Myles and Kallbekken, Steffen},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa5b0a},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Brazilian proposal,Paris agreement,ethics,responsibility,short-lived climate forcers,time horizon},
number = {2},
pages = {024022},
title = {{Perspective has a strong effect on the calculation of historical contributions to global warming}},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Skelton2017,
author = {Skelton, Maurice and Porter, James J. and Dessai, Suraje and Bresch, David N. and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-017-1155-z},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
month = {dec},
number = {8},
pages = {2325--2338},
title = {{The social and scientific values that shape national climate scenarios: a comparison of the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-017-1155-z},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Slivinski2021,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Slivinski, L C and Compo, G P and Sardeshmukh, P D and Whitaker, J S and McColl, C and Allan, R J and Brohan, P and Yin, X and Smith, C A and Spencer, L J and Vose, R S and Rohrer, M and Conroy, R P and Schuster, D C and Kennedy, J J and Ashcroft, L and Br{\"{o}}nnimann, S and Brunet, M and Camuffo, D and Cornes, R and Cram, T A and Dom{\'{i}}nguez-Castro, F and Freeman, J E and Gergis, J and Hawkins, E and Jones, P D and Kubota, H and Lee, T C and Lorrey, A M and Luterbacher, J and Mock, C J and Przybylak, R K and Pudmenzky, C and Slonosky, V C and Tinz, B and Trewin, B and Wang, X L and Wilkinson, C and Wood, K and Wyszy{\'{n}}ski, P},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {4},
pages = {1417--1438},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/4/JCLI-D-20-0505.1.xml},
volume = {34},
year = {2021}
}
@article{SMAGORINSKY1965,
author = {Smagorinsky, Joseph and Manabe, Syukuro and Holloway, J. Leith},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(1965)093<0727:NRFANL>2.3.CO;2},
issn = {0027-0644},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {727--768},
title = {{Numerical results from a Nine-level General Circulation Model of the Atmosphere}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493{\%}281965{\%}29093{\%}3C0727{\%}3ANRFANL{\%}3E2.3.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {93},
year = {1965}
}
@techreport{StudyofMansImpactonClimate1971a,
address = {Cambridge, MA, USA},
author = {SMIC},
isbn = {9780262191012},
pages = {334},
publisher = {Study of Man's Impact on Climate (SMIC). MIT Press},
title = {{Inadvertent Climate Modification: Report of the Study of Man's Impact on Climate}},
year = {1971}
}
@article{Smith2019c,
abstract = {The role ships play in atmospheric, oceanic, and biogeochemical observations is described with a focus on measurements made near the ocean surface. Ships include merchant and research vessels; cruise liners and ferries; fishing vessels; coast guard, military, and other government-operated ships; yachts; and a growing fleet of automated surface vessels. The present capabilities of ships to measure essential climate/ocean variables and the requirements from a broad community to address operational, commercial, and scientific needs are described. The authors provide a vision to expand observations needed from ships to understand and forecast the exchanges across the ocean–atmosphere interface. The vision addresses (1) recruiting vessels to improve both spatial and temporal sampling, (2) conducting multivariate sampling on ships, (3) raising technology readiness levels of automated shipboard sensors and ship-to-shore data communications, (4) advancing quality evaluation of observations, and (5) developing a unified data management approach for observations and metadata that meet the needs of a diverse user community. Recommendations are made focusing on integrating private and autonomous vessels into the observing system, investing in sensor and communications technology development, developing an integrated data management structure that includes all types of ships, and moving toward a quality evaluation process that will result in a subset of ships being defined as mobile reference ships that will support climate studies. We envision a future where commercial, research, and privately owned vessels are making multivariate observations using a combination of automated and human-observed measurements. All data and metadata will be documented, tracked, evaluated, distributed, and archived to benefit users of marine data. This vision looks at ships as a holistic network, not a set of disparate commercial, research, and/or third-party activities working in isolation, to bring these communities together for the mutual benefit of all.},
author = {Smith, Shawn R and Alory, Ga{\"{e}}l and Andersson, Axel and Asher, William and Baker, Alex and Berry, David I and Drushka, Kyla and Figurskey, Darin and Freeman, Eric and Holthus, Paul and Jickells, Tim and Kleta, Henry and Kent, Elizabeth C and Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas and Kramp, Martin and Loh, Zoe and Poli, Paul and Schuster, Ute and Steventon, Emma and Swart, Sebastiaan and Tarasova, Oksana and de la Vill{\'{e}}on, Loic Petit and Vinogradova-Shiffer, Nadya},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00434},
isbn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {434},
title = {{Ship-Based Contributions to Global Ocean, Weather, and Climate Observing Systems}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00434},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Smith2018,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}![CDATA[{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able to replicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Larger ensembles can be produced, enabling a probabilistic view of future climate change. A simple emissions-based climate model, FAIR, is presented, which calculates atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone and other agents. Model runs are constrained to observed temperature change from 1880 to 2016 and produce a range of future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The constrained estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater} emissions (TCRE) are 2.86 (2.01 to 4.22){\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}K, 1.53 (1.05 to 2.41){\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}K and 1.40 (0.96 to 2.23){\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}K (1000{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}GtC){\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}{\textless}sup{\textgreater}−1{\textless}/sup{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater} (median and 5–95{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}{\%} credible intervals). These are in good agreement with the likely Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) range, noting that AR5 estimates were derived from a combination of climate models, observations and expert judgement. The ranges of future projections of temperature and ranges of estimates of ECS, TCR and TCRE are somewhat sensitive to the prior distributions of {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}ECS∕TCR{\textless}/span{\textgreater} parameters but less sensitive to the ERF from a doubling of {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}CO{\textless}sub{\textgreater}2{\textless}/sub{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater} or the observational temperature dataset used to constrain the ensemble. Taking these sensitivities into account, there is no evidence to suggest that the median and credible range of observationally constrained TCR or ECS differ from climate model-derived estimates. The range of temperature projections under RCP8.5 for 2081–2100 in the constrained FAIR model ensemble is lower than the emissions-based estimate reported in AR5 by half a degree, owing to differences in forcing assumptions and {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}ECS∕TCR{\textless}/span{\textgreater} distributions.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}]]{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Smith, Christopher J. and Forster, Piers M. and Allen, Myles and Leach, Nicholas and Millar, Richard J. and Passerello, Giovanni A. and Regayre, Leighton A.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {2273--2297},
title = {{FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/2273/2018/},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Smith2019,
abstract = {Abstract. Polar amplification – the phenomenon where external radiative forcing produces a larger change in surface temperature at high latitudes than the global average – is a key aspect of anthropogenic climate change, but its causes and consequences are not fully understood. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016) seeks to improve our understanding of this phenomenon through a coordinated set of numerical model experiments documented here. In particular, PAMIP will address the following primary questions: (1) what are the relative roles of local sea ice and remote sea surface temperature changes in driving polar amplification? (2) How does the global climate system respond to changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice? These issues will be addressed with multi-model simulations that are forced with different combinations of sea ice and/or sea surface temperatures representing present-day, pre-industrial and future conditions. The use of three time periods allows the signals of interest to be diagnosed in multiple ways. Lower-priority tier experiments are proposed to investigate additional aspects and provide further understanding of the physical processes. These experiments will address the following specific questions: what role does ocean–atmosphere coupling play in the response to sea ice? How and why does the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice depend on the pattern of sea ice forcing? How and why does the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice depend on the model background state? What have been the roles of local sea ice and remote sea surface temperature in polar amplification, and the response to sea ice, over the recent period since 1979? How does the response to sea ice evolve on decadal and longer timescales? A key goal of PAMIP is to determine the real-world situation using imperfect climate models. Although the experiments proposed here form a coordinated set, we anticipate a large spread across models. However, this spread will be exploited by seeking “emergent constraints” in which model uncertainty may be reduced by using an observable quantity that physically explains the intermodel spread. In summary, PAMIP will improve our understanding of the physical processes that drive polar amplification and its global climate impacts, thereby reducing the uncertainties in future projections and predictions of climate change and variability. ]]{\textgreater}},
author = {Smith, Doug M. and Screen, James A. and Deser, Clara and Cohen, Judah and Fyfe, John C. and Garc{\'{i}}a-Serrano, Javier and Jung, Thomas and Kattsov, Vladimir and Matei, Daniela and Msadek, Rym and Peings, Yannick and Sigmond, Michael and Ukita, Jinro and Yoon, Jin-Ho and Zhang, Xiangdong},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1139--1164},
title = {{The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/1139/2019/},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Smith2009,
author = {Smith, J. B. and Schneider, S. H. and Oppenheimer, M. and Yohe, G. W. and Hare, W. and Mastrandrea, M. D. and Patwardhan, A. and Burton, I. and Corfee-Morlot, J. and Magadza, C. H. D. and Fussel, H.-M. and Pittock, A. B. and Rahman, A. and Suarez, A. and van Ypersele, J.-P.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0812355106},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {11},
pages = {4133--4137},
title = {{Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0812355106},
volume = {106},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Smith2016f,
author = {Smith, Doug M. and Booth, Ben B. B. and Dunstone, Nick J. and Eade, Rosie and Hermanson, Leon and Jones, Gareth S. and Scaife, Adam A. and Sheen, Katy L. and Thompson, Vikki},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3058},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {936--940},
title = {{Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3058},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Smith2011,
abstract = {Policy-making is usually about risk management. Thus, the handling of uncertainty in science is central to its support of sound policy-making. There is value in scientists engaging in a deep conversation with policy-makers and others, not merely ‘delivering' results or analyses and then playing no further role. Communicating the policy relevance of different varieties of uncertainty, including imprecision, ambiguity, intractability and indeterminism, is an important part of this conversation. Uncertainty is handled better when scientists engage with policy-makers. Climate policy aims both to alter future risks (particularly via mitigation) and to take account of and respond to relevant remaining risks (via adaptation) in the complex causal chain that begins and ends with individuals. Policy-making profits from learning how to shift the distribution of risks towards less dangerous impacts, even if the probability of events remains uncertain. Immediate value lies not only in communicating how risks may change with time and how those risks may be changed by action, but also in projecting how our understanding of those risks may improve with time (via science) and how our ability to influence them may advance (via technology and policy design). Guidance on the most urgent places to gather information and realistic estimates of when to expect more informative answers is of immediate value, as are plausible estimates of the risk of delaying action. Risk assessment requires grappling with probability and ambiguity (uncertainty in the Knightian sense) and assessing the ethical, logical, philosophical and economic underpinnings of whether a target of ‘50 per cent chance of remaining under +2 ° C' is either ‘right' or ‘safe'. How do we better stimulate advances in the difficult analytical and philosophical questions while maintaining foundational scientific work advancing our understanding of the phenomena? And provide immediate help with decisions that must be made now?},
author = {Smith, Leonard A. and Stern, Nicholas},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2011.0149},
issn = {1364-503X},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
month = {dec},
number = {1956},
pages = {4818--4841},
title = {{Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2011.0149},
volume = {369},
year = {2011}
}
@article{10.3389/fmars.2019.00031,
abstract = {This paper reviews the design of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) and its governance and takes a forward look at prospective change. The initial findings of the TPOS 2020 Project embrace new strategic approaches and technologies in a user-driven design and the variable focus of the Framework for Ocean Observing. User requirements arise from climate prediction and research, climate change and the climate record, and coupled modeling and data assimilation more generally. Requirements include focus on the upper ocean and air-sea interactions, sampling of diurnal variations, finer spatial scales and emerging demands related to biogeochemistry and ecosystems. One aim is to sample a diversity of climatic regimes in addition to the equatorial zone. The status and outlook for meeting the requirements of the design are discussed. This is accomplished through integrated and complementary capabilities of networks, including satellites, moorings, profiling floats and autonomous vehicles. Emerging technologies and methods are also discussed. The outlook highlights a few new foci of the design: biogeochemistry and ecosystems, low-latitude western boundary currents and the eastern Pacific. Low latitude western boundary currents are conduits of tropical-subtropical interactions, supplying waters of mid to high latitude origin to the western equatorial Pacific and into the Indonesian Throughflow. They are an essential part of the recharge/discharge of equatorial warm water volume at interannual timescales and play crucial roles in climate variability on regional and global scales. The tropical eastern Pacific, where extreme El Ni{\~{n}}o events develop, requires tailored approaches owing to the complex of processes at work there involving coastal upwelling, and equatorial cold tongue dynamics, the oxygen minimum zone and the seasonal double Intertropical Convergence Zone. A pilot program building on existing networks is envisaged, complemented by a process study of the East Pacific ITCZ/warm pool/cold tongue/stratus coupled system. The sustainability of TPOS depends on effective and strong collaborative partnerships and governance arrangements. Revisiting regional mechanisms and engaging new partners in the context of a planned and systematic design will ensure a multi-purpose, multi-faceted integrated approach that is sustainable and responsive to changing needs.},
author = {Smith, Neville and Kessler, William S and Cravatte, Sophie and Sprintall, Janet and Wijffels, Susan and Cronin, Meghan F and Sutton, Adrienne and Serra, Yolande L and Dewitte, Boris and Strutton, Peter G and Hill, Katherine and {Sen Gupta}, Alex and Lin, Xiaopei and Takahashi, Ken and Chen, Dake and Brunner, Shelby},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00031},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {31},
title = {{Tropical Pacific Observing System}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00031},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Snyder2016,
author = {Snyder, Carolyn W.},
doi = {10.1038/nature19798},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {oct},
number = {7624},
pages = {226--228},
title = {{Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature19798},
volume = {538},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Solomina2015a,
abstract = {A global overview of glacier advances and retreats (grouped by regions and by millennia) for the Holocene is compiled from previous studies. The reconstructions of glacier fluctuations are based on 1) mapping and dating moraines defined by 14C, TCN, OSL, lichenometry and tree rings (discontinuous records/time series), and 2) sediments from proglacial lakes and speleothems (continuous records/time series). Using 189 continuous and discontinuous time series, the long-term trends and centennial fluctuations of glaciers were compared to trends in the recession of Northern and mountain tree lines, and with orbital, solar and volcanic studies to examine the likely forcing factors that drove the changes recorded. A general trend of increasing glacier size from the early–mid Holocene, to the late Holocene in the extra-tropical areas of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is related to overall summer temperature, forced by orbitally-controlled insolation. The glaciers in New Zealand and in the tropical Andes also appear to follow the orbital trend, i.e., they were decreasing from the early Holocene to the present. In contrast, glacier fluctuations in some monsoonal areas of Asia and southern South America generally did not follow the orbital trends, but fluctuated at a higher frequency possibly triggered by distinct teleconnections patterns. During the Neoglacial, advances clustered at 4.4–4.2ka, 3.8–3.4ka, 3.3–2.8ka, 2.6ka, 2.3–2.1ka, 1.5–1.4ka, 1.2–1.0ka, 0.7–0.5ka, corresponding to general cooling periods in the North Atlantic. Some of these episodes coincide with multidecadal periods of low solar activity, but it is unclear what mechanism might link small changes in irradiance to widespread glacier fluctuations. Explosive volcanism may have played a role in some periods of glacier advances, such as around 1.7–1.6ka (coinciding with the Taupo volcanic eruption at 232 ± 5 CE) but the record of explosive volcanism is poorly known through the Holocene. The compilation of ages suggests that there is no single mechanism driving glacier fluctuations on a global scale. Multidecadal variations of solar and volcanic activity supported by positive feedbacks in the climate system may have played a critical role in Holocene glaciation, but further research on such linkages is needed. The rate and the global character of glacier retreat in the 20th through early 21st centuries appears unusual in the context of Holocene glaciation, though the retreating glaciers in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere are still larger today than they were in the early and/or mid-Holocene. The current retreat, however, is occurring during an interval of orbital forcing that is favorable for glacier growth and is therefore caused by a combination of factors other than orbital forcing, primarily strong anthropogenic effects. Glacier retreat will continue into future decades due to the delayed response of glaciers to climate change.},
author = {Solomina, Olga N and Bradley, Raymond S and Hodgson, Dominic A and Ivy-Ochs, Susan and Jomelli, Vincent and Mackintosh, Andrew N and Nesje, Atle and Owen, Lewis A and Wanner, Heinz and Wiles, Gregory C and Young, Nicolas E},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.11.018},
issn = {0277-3791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
keywords = {Glacier variations,Global warming,Holocene,Holocene thermal maximum,Modern glacier retreat,Neoglacial,Orbital forcings,Solar activity,Volcanic forcings},
pages = {9--34},
title = {{Holocene glacier fluctuations}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379114004788},
volume = {111},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{Eyring2010,
author = {SPARC},
doi = {https://www.sparc-climate.org/publications/sparc-reports/sparc-report-no-5/},
editor = {Eyring, V and Shepherd, T G and Waugh, D W},
pages = {426},
publisher = {Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC)},
series = {SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-30/2010, WMO/TD – No. 40},
title = {{SPARC CCMVal Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models}},
url = {https://www.sparc-climate.org/publications/sparc-reports/sparc-report-no-5/},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Spratt2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) on seven records from 0 to 430ka and five records from 0 to 798ka. The first principal component, which we use as the stack, describes ∼ 80{\%} of the variance in the data and is similar using either five or seven records. After scaling the stack based on Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea level estimates, the stack agrees to within 5m with isostatically adjusted coral sea level estimates for Marine Isotope Stages 5e and 11 (125 and 400ka, respectively). Bootstrapping and random sampling yield mean uncertainty estimates of 9–12m (1$\sigma$) for the scaled stack. Sea level change accounts for about 45{\%} of the total orbital-band variance in benthic $\delta$18O, compared to a 65{\%} contribution during the LGM-to-Holocene transition. Additionally, the second and third principal components of our analyses reflect differences between proxy records associated with spatial variations in the $\delta$18O of seawater.},
author = {Spratt, Rachel M. and Lisiecki, Lorraine E.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-12-1079-2016},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1079--1092},
title = {{A Late Pleistocene sea level stack}},
url = {https://www.clim-past.net/12/1079/2016/},
volume = {12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{STAHLE201634,
abstract = {Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE–2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5° latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34°N and 75–120°W using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944–1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920–1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El A{\~{n}}o de Hambre in 1785–1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909–1910. The El Ni{\~{n}}o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense “All Mexico” droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.},
author = {Stahle, David W and Cook, Edward R and Burnette, Dorian J and Villanueva, Jose and Cerano, Julian and Burns, Jordan N and Griffin, Daniel and Cook, Benjamin I and Acu{\~{n}}a, Rodolfo and Torbenson, Max C A and Szejner, Paul and Howard, Ian M},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.06.018},
issn = {0277-3791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
keywords = {Climate reconstruction,Drought,El Nino,La Nina,Mexico,Palmer drought severity index,Pluvial,Social impacts,Tree-ring chronologies},
pages = {34--60},
title = {{The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-ring reconstructions of the soil moisture balance during the late pre-Hispanic, colonial, and modern eras}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116302244},
volume = {149},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Stammer2018,
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2018EF000979},
author = {Stammer, D and Bracco, A and Braconnot, P and Brasseur, G P and Griffies, S M and Hawkins, E},
doi = {10.1029/2018EF000979},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1498--1507},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Science Directions in a Post COP21 World of Transient Climate Change: Enabling Regional to Local Predictions in Support of Reliable Climate Information}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000979},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Staniforth2012,
abstract = {Abstract A latitude–longitude grid is used by almost all operational atmospheric forecast models, and many research models. However, it is expected that the advantages of a latitude–longitude grid will become outweighed on massively parallel computers by data-communication bottlenecks. There is therefore renewed interest in quasi-uniform alternatives. This review surveys and assesses previously proposed horizontal grids for modelling the atmosphere over the sphere. Aspects of numerical accuracy likely to be affected by grid structure are discussed; particular attention is paid to computational modes and grid imprinting. Computational modes are potentially very serious, since they may be excited in realistic applications by boundary conditions, nonlinearity, physical forcing, and data assimilation. The geometry of polyhedra is reviewed due to its relation to numerical degrees of freedom, and hence to numerical wave dispersion and the possible existence of computational modes. All grids proposed to date have known problems or issues that merit further investigation. Orthogonal logically rectangular grids may be generated using conformal maps, but these suffer from singularities and resolution clustering. Resolution clustering may be avoided by using overset grids, but there are potential issues associated with the overlap regions. Alternatively, resolution clustering may be avoided, whilst retaining a logically rectangular grid, by giving up orthogonality; however, existing numerical schemes exploit orthogonality to obtain various properties thought to be important for accuracy, and it is not yet known whether these can also be obtained on non-orthogonal grids. Quasi-uniformity and orthogonality can be obtained without resolution clustering or overlaps by using non-quadrilateral grid cells, such as triangles, or pentagons and hexagons. However, when a staggered placement of variables is used to minimise dispersion errors for fast waves, non-quadrilateral grids support computational modes. In view of the lack of a single ideal grid, several topics meriting further investigation are identified. Copyright {\textcopyright} 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office},
author = {Staniforth, Andrew and Thuburn, John},
doi = {10.1002/qj.958},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {computational mode,conformal mapping,grid imprinting,numerical dispersion,orthogonality,polyhedra},
number = {662},
pages = {1--26},
title = {{Horizontal grids for global weather and climate prediction models: a review}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.958},
volume = {138},
year = {2012}
}
@techreport{StatKnows-CR22019,
author = {StatKnows-CR2},
doi = {https://www.statknows.com/sk-and-cr2-cclatam-resultsreport},
pages = {30},
publisher = {StatKnows and the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2)},
title = {{International Survey on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.statknows.com/sk-and-cr2-cclatam-resultsreport},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Steen-Larsen2015,
abstract = {AbstractThe isotopic composition of near surface (or planetary boundary layer) water vapor on the south coast of Iceland (63.83°N, 21.47°W) has been monitored in situ between November 2011 and April 2013. The calibrated data set documents seasonal variations in the relationship between $\delta$18O and local humidity (ppmv) and between deuterium excess and $\delta$18O. These seasonal variations are attributed to seasonal changes in atmospheric transport. A strong linear relationship is observed between deuterium excess and atmospheric relative humidity calculated at regional sea surface temperature. Surprisingly, we find a similar relationship between deuterium excess and relative humidity as observed in the Bermuda Islands. During days with low amount of isotopic depletion (more enriched values), our data significantly deviate from the global meteoric water line. This feature can be explained by a supply of an evaporative flux into the planetary boundary layer above the ocean, which we show using a 1-d box model. Based on the close relationship identified between moisture origin and deuterium excess, we combine deuterium excess measurements performed in Iceland and south Greenland with moisture source diagnostics based on back trajectory calculations to establish the distribution of d-excess moisture uptake values across the North Atlantic. We map high deuterium excess in the Arctic and low deuterium excess for vapor in the subtropics and midlatitudes. This confirms the role of North Atlantic water vapor isotopes as moisture origin tracers.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023234},
author = {Steen-Larsen, H C and Sveinbj{\"{o}}rnsdottir, A E and Jonsson, Th. and Ritter, F and Bonne, J.-L. and Masson-Delmotte, V and Sodemann, H and Blunier, T and Dahl-Jensen, D and Vinther, B M},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD023234},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {deuterium excess,evaporation,isotopes,marine boundary layer,water vapor},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {5757--5774},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Moisture sources and synoptic to seasonal variability of North Atlantic water vapor isotopic composition}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023234},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Steffen2007,
author = {Steffen, Will and Crutzen, Paul J and McNeill, John R},
doi = {10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[614:TAAHNO]2.0.CO;2},
journal = {AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment},
number = {8},
pages = {614--621},
title = {{The Anthropocene: Are Humans Now Overwhelming the Great Forces of Nature}},
volume = {36},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Steffen2018,
abstract = {We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.},
author = {Steffen, Will and Rockstr{\"{o}}m, Johan and Richardson, Katherine and Lenton, Timothy M. and Folke, Carl and Liverman, Diana and Summerhayes, Colin P. and Barnosky, Anthony D. and Cornell, Sarah E. and Crucifix, Michel and Donges, Jonathan F. and Fetzer, Ingo and Lade, Steven J. and Scheffer, Marten and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1810141115},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Anthropocene,Biosphere feedbacks,Climate change,Earth system trajectories,Tipping elements},
month = {aug},
number = {33},
pages = {8252--8259},
title = {{Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1810141115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Steiger2018,
author = {Steiger, Nathan J. and Smerdon, Jason E. and Cook, Edward R. and Cook, Benjamin I.},
doi = {10.1038/sdata.2018.86},
issn = {2052-4463},
journal = {Scientific Data},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {180086},
title = {{A reconstruction of global hydroclimate and dynamical variables over the Common Era}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201886},
volume = {5},
year = {2018}
}
@article{amt-2019-358,
author = {Steiner, Andrea K and Ladst{\"{a}}dter, Florian and Ao, Chi O and Gleisner, Hans and Ho, Shu-Peng and Hunt, Doug and Schmidt, Torsten and Foelsche, Ulrich and Kirchengast, Gottfried and Kuo, Ying-Hwa and Lauritsen, Kent B and Mannucci, Anthony J and Nielsen, Johannes K and Schreiner, William and Schw{\"{a}}rz, Marc and Sokolovskiy, Sergey and Syndergaard, Stig and Wickert, Jens},
doi = {10.5194/amt-13-2547-2020},
issn = {1867-8548},
journal = {Atmospheric Measurement Techniques},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {2547--2575},
title = {{Consistency and structural uncertainty of multi-mission GPS radio occultation records}},
url = {https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/13/2547/2020/},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{gmd-10-433-2017,
abstract = {Abstract. A simple plume implementation of the second version (v2) of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, MACv2-SP, is described. MACv2-SP provides a prescription of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect. It was created to provide a harmonized description of post-1850 anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing for climate modeling studies. MACv2-SP has been designed to be easy to implement, change and use, and thereby enable studies exploring the climatic effects of different patterns of aerosol radiative forcing, including a Twomey effect. MACv2-SP is formulated in terms of nine spatial plumes associated with different major anthropogenic source regions. The shape of the plumes is fit to the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, version 2, whose present-day (2005) distribution is anchored by surface-based observations. Two types of plumes are considered: one predominantly associated with biomass burning, the other with industrial emissions. These differ in the prescription of their annual cycle and in their optical properties, thereby implicitly accounting for different contributions of absorbing aerosol to the different plumes. A Twomey effect for each plume is prescribed as a change in the host model's background cloud-droplet population density using relationships derived from satellite data. Year-to-year variations in the amplitude of the plumes over the historical period (1850–2016) are derived by scaling the plumes with associated national emission sources of SO2 and NH3. Experiments using MACv2-SP are performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The globally and annually averaged instantaneous and effective aerosol radiative forcings are estimated to be −0.6 and −0.5 W m−2, respectively. Forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (the Twomey effect) offsets the reduction of clear-sky forcing by clouds, so that the net effect of clouds on the aerosol forcing is small; hence, the clear-sky forcing, which is more readily measurable, provides a good estimate of the total aerosol forcing.},
author = {Stevens, Bjorn and Fiedler, Stephanie and Kinne, Stefan and Peters, Karsten and Rast, Sebastian and M{\"{u}}sse, Jobst and Smith, Steven J and Mauritsen, Thorsten},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {433--452},
title = {{MACv2-SP: a parameterization of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for use in CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/433/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Stevens2009,
abstract = {Atmospheric aerosol particles are crucial to the existence of clouds as we know them. It is thought that the aerosol can affect the ability of clouds to form precipitation and in turn cloudiness. But how, in detail, do clouds — and through them the radiative forcing of the global climate system — depend on the aerosol? Bjorn Stevens and Graham Feingold propose that past difficulties in untangling relationships between the aerosol, clouds and precipitation reflect in part a failure to take into account the many processes that act to buffer cloud and precipitation responses to aerosol perturbations. To counter this, say Stevens and Feingold, research needs to focus on understanding specific regimes of aerosol, cloud and precipitation.},
author = {Stevens, Bjorn and Feingold, Graham},
doi = {10.1038/nature08281},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7264},
pages = {607--613},
title = {{Untangling aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation in a buffered system}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08281},
volume = {461},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Stickler2010,
author = {Stickler, A. and Grant, A. N. and Ewen, T. and Ross, T. F. and Vose, R. S. and Comeaux, J. and Bessemoulin, P. and Jylh{\"{a}}, K. and Adam, W. K. and Jeannet, P. and Nagurny, A. and Sterin, A. M. and Allan, R. and Compo, G. P. and Griesser, T. and Br{\"{o}}nnimann, S.},
doi = {10.1175/2009BAMS2852.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {741--752},
title = {{The Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2009BAMS2852.1},
volume = {91},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Stjern2017,
author = {Stjern, Camilla Weum and Samset, Bj{\o}rn Hallvard and Myhre, Gunnar and Forster, Piers M. and Hodnebrog, {\O}ivind and Andrews, Timothy and Boucher, Olivier and Faluvegi, Gregory and Iversen, Trond and Kasoar, Matthew and Kharin, Viatcheslav and Kirkev{\aa}g, Alf and Lamarque, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Olivi{\'{e}}, Dirk and Richardson, Thomas and Shawki, Dilshad and Shindell, Drew and Smith, Christopher J. and Takemura, Toshihiko and Voulgarakis, Apostolos},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027326},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {black carbon,climate,rapid adjustments,semidirect},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11462--11481},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Rapid Adjustments Cause Weak Surface Temperature Response to Increased Black Carbon Concentrations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017JD027326},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Stock2014,
abstract = {Global-scale planktonic ecosystem models exhibit large differences in simulated net primary production (NPP) and assessment of planktonic food web fluxes beyond primary producers has been limited, diminishing confidence in carbon flux estimates from these models. In this study, a global ocean-ice-ecosystem model was assessed against a suite of observation-based planktonic food web flux estimates, many of which were not considered in previous modeling studies. The simulation successfully captured cross-biome differences and similarities in these fluxes after calibration of a limited number of highly uncertain yet influential parameters. The resulting comprehensive carbon budgets suggested that shortened food webs, elevated growth efficiencies, and tight consumer-resource coupling enable oceanic upwelling systems to support 45{\%} of pelagic mesozooplankton production despite accounting for only 22{\%} of ocean area and 34{\%} of NPP. In seasonally stratified regions (42{\%} of ocean area and 40{\%} of NPP), weakened consumer-resource coupling tempers mesozooplankton production to 41{\%} and enhances export below 100m to 48{\%} of the global total. In oligotrophic systems (36{\%} of ocean area and 26{\%} of NPP), the dominance of small phytoplankton and low consumer growth efficiencies supported only 14{\%} of mesozooplankton production and 17{\%} of export globally. Bacterial production, in contrast, was maintained in nearly constant proportion to primary production across biomes through the compensating effects of increased partitioning of NPP to the microbial food web in oligotrophic ecosystems and increased bacterial growth efficiencies in more productive areas. Cross-biome differences in mesozooplankton trophic level were muted relative to those invoked by previous work such that significant differences in consumer growth efficiencies and the strength of consumer-resource coupling were needed to explain sharp cross-biome differences in mesozooplankton production. Lastly, simultaneous consideration of multiple flux constraints supports a highly distributed view of respiration across the planktonic food web rather than one dominated by heterotrophic bacteria. The solution herein is unlikely unique in its ability to explain observed cross-biome energy flow patterns and notable misfits remain. Resolution of existing uncertainties in observed biome-scale productivity and increasingly mechanistic physical and biological model components should yield significant refinements to estimates herein.},
author = {Stock, Charles A and Dunne, John P and John, Jasmin G},
doi = {10.1016/j.pocean.2013.07.001},
issn = {00796611},
journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
month = {jan},
pages = {1--28},
title = {{Global-scale carbon and energy flows through the marine planktonic food web: An analysis with a coupled physical–biological model}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0079661113001079},
volume = {120},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Stocker2003,
author = {Stocker, Thomas F. and Johnsen, Sigf{\`{u}}s J.},
doi = {10.1029/2003PA000920},
issn = {08838305},
journal = {Paleoceanography},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {1087},
title = {{A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2003PA000920},
volume = {18},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Stone2021,
author = {Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} A. and Rosier, Suzanne M and Frame, David J},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-01012-x},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {276--278},
title = {{The question of life, the universe and event attribution}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01012-x},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Stone2013,
abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts.},
author = {Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} A. and Auffhammer, Maximilian and Carey, Mark and Hansen, Gerrit and Huggel, Christian and Cramer, Wolfgang and Lobell, David and Molau, Ulf and Solow, Andrew and Tibig, Lourdes and Yohe, Gary},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {2},
pages = {381--395},
title = {{The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6},
volume = {121},
year = {2013}
}
@article{gmd-11-3187-2018,
author = {Storkey, D and Blaker, A T and Mathiot, P and Megann, A and Aksenov, Y and Blockley, E W and Calvert, D and Graham, T and Hewitt, H T and Hyder, P and Kuhlbrodt, T and Rae, J G L and Sinha, B},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-3187-2018},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {8},
pages = {3187--3213},
title = {{UK Global Ocean GO6 and GO7: a traceable hierarchy of model resolutions}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/3187/2018/},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Storto2019a,
abstract = {Since 2016, the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) has produced and disseminated an ensemble of four global ocean reanalyses produced at eddy-permitting resolution for the period from 1993 to present, called GREP (Global ocean Reanalysis Ensemble Product). This dataset offers the possibility to investigate the potential benefits of a multi-system approach for ocean reanalyses, since the four reanalyses span by construction the same spatial and temporal scales. In particular, our investigations focus on the added value of the information on the ensemble spread, implicitly contained in the GREP ensemble, for temperature, salinity, and steric sea level studies. It is shown that in spite of the small ensemble size, the spread is capable of estimating the flow-dependent uncertainty in the ensemble mean, although proper re-scaling is needed to achieve reliability. The GREP members also exhibit larger consistency (smaller spread) than their predecessors, suggesting advancement with time of the reanalysis vintage. The uncertainty information is crucial for monitoring the climate of the ocean, even at regional level, as GREP shows consistency with CMEMS high-resolution regional products and complement the regional estimates with uncertainty estimates. Further applications of the spread include the monitoring of the impact of changes in ocean observing networks; the use of multi-model ensemble anomalies in hybrid ensemble-variational retrospective analysis systems, which outperform static covariances and represent a promising application of GREP. Overall, the spread information of the GREP product is found to significantly contribute to the crucial requirement of uncertainty estimates for climatic datasets.},
author = {Storto, Andrea and Masina, Simona and Simoncelli, Simona and Iovino, Doroteaciro and Cipollone, Andrea and Drevillon, Marie and Drillet, Yann and von Schuckman, Karina and Parent, Laurent and Garric, Gilles and Greiner, Eric and Desportes, Charles and Zuo, Hao and Balmaseda, Magdalena A. and Peterson, K. Andrew},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4585-5},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Hybrid data assimilation,Observation impact,Ocean synthesis,Uncertainty,reanalysis accuracy},
number = {1-2},
pages = {287--312},
title = {{The added value of the multi-system spread information for ocean heat content and steric sea level investigations in the CMEMS GREP ensemble reanalysis product}},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Storto2017a,
abstract = {Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 {\%} for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.},
author = {Storto, Andrea and Masina, Simona and Balmaseda, Magdalena and Guinehut, St{\'{e}}phanie and Xue, Yan and Szekely, Tanguy and Fukumori, Ichiro and Forget, Gael and Chang, You-Soon and Good, Simon A and K{\"{o}}hl, Armin and Vernieres, Guillaume and Ferry, Nicolas and Peterson, K Andrew and Behringer, David and Ishii, Masayoshi and Masuda, Shuhei and Fujii, Yosuke and Toyoda, Takahiro and Yin, Yonghong and Valdivieso, Maria and Barnier, Bernard and Boyer, Tim and Lee, Tony and Gourrion, J{\'{e}}rome and Wang, Ou and Heimback, Patrick and Rosati, Anthony and Kovach, Robin and Hernandez, Fabrice and Martin, Matthew J and Kamachi, Masafumi and Kuragano, Tsurane and Mogensen, Kristian and Alves, Oscar and Haines, Keith and Wang, Xiaochun},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2554-9},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {709--729},
title = {{Steric sea level variability (1993–2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2554-9},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Stott2010,
author = {Stott, Peter A. and Gillett, Nathan P. and Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Karoly, David J. and Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} A. and Zhang, Xuebin and Zwiers, Francis},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.34},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {192--211},
title = {{Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.34},
volume = {1},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Stott2016,
abstract = {Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers.},
author = {Stott, Peter A. and Christidis, Nikolaos and Otto, Friederike E.L. and Sun, Ying and Vanderlinden, Jean Paul and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Vautard, Robert and von Storch, Hans and Walton, Peter and Yiou, Pascal and Zwiers, Francis W.},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.380},
issn = {17577799},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {23--41},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events}},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Stouffer2017,
abstract = {Nature Climate Change | doi:10.1038/nclimate3224},
author = {Stouffer, Ronald J. and Manabe, Syukuro},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3224},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {163--165},
title = {{Assessing temperature pattern projections made in 1989}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3224},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2019JD030732,
abstract = {Abstract Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved subgrid-scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of stochastic physics has also been found to be beneficial for the model's long-term climate. In this paper, we demonstrate for the first time that the inclusion of a stochastic physics scheme can notably affect a model's projection of global warming, as well as its historical climatological global temperature. Specifically, we find that when including the “stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies” (SPPT) scheme in the fully coupled climate model EC-Earth v3.1, the predicted level of global warming between 1850 and 2100 is reduced by 10{\%} under an RCP8.5 forcing scenario. We link this reduction in climate sensitivity to a change in the cloud feedbacks with SPPT. In particular, the scheme appears to reduce the positive low cloud cover feedback and increase the negative cloud optical feedback. A key role is played by a robust, rapid increase in cloud liquid water with SPPT, which we speculate is due to the scheme's nonlinear interaction with condensation.},
author = {Strommen, K and Watson, P A G and Palmer, T N},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD030732},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {23},
pages = {12726--12740},
title = {{The Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization Scheme on Climate Sensitivity in EC-Earth}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD030732},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Stuiver1965,
author = {Stuiver, M.},
doi = {10.1126/science.149.3683.533},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jul},
number = {3683},
pages = {533--534},
title = {{Carbon-14 Content of 18th- and 19th-Century Wood: Variations Correlated with Sunspot Activity}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.149.3683.533},
volume = {149},
year = {1965}
}
@article{gmd-12-2049-2019,
author = {Su, C.-H. and Eizenberg, N and Steinle, P and Jakob, D and Fox-Hughes, P and White, C J and Rennie, S and Franklin, C and Dharssi, I and Zhu, H},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-2049-2019},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {5},
pages = {2049--2068},
title = {{BARRA v1.0: the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Reanalysis for Australia}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/2049/2019/},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Suess1955a,
author = {Suess, H. E.},
doi = {10.1126/science.122.3166.415-a},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {sep},
number = {3166},
pages = {415--417},
title = {{Radiocarbon Concentration in Modern Wood}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.122.3166.415-a},
volume = {122},
year = {1955}
}
@article{Sun2017,
author = {Sun, Y. and Frankenberg, C. and Wood, J. D. and Schimel, D. S. and Jung, M. and Guanter, L. and Drewry, D. T. and Verma, M. and Porcar-Castell, A. and Griffis, T. J. and Gu, L. and Magney, T. S. and K{\"{o}}hler, P. and Evans, B. and Yuen, K.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aam5747},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {oct},
number = {6360},
pages = {eaam5747},
title = {{OCO-2 advances photosynthesis observation from space via solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aam5747},
volume = {358},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sun2018,
abstract = {Abstract In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the data sources and estimation methods of 30 currently available global precipitation data sets, including gauge-based, satellite-related, and reanalysis data sets. We analyzed the discrepancies between the data sets from daily to annual timescales and found large differences in both the magnitude and the variability of precipitation estimates. The magnitude of annual precipitation estimates over global land deviated by as much as 300 mm/yr among the products. Reanalysis data sets had a larger degree of variability than the other types of data sets. The degree of variability in precipitation estimates also varied by region. Large differences in annual and seasonal estimates were found in tropical oceans, complex mountain areas, northern Africa, and some high-latitude regions. Overall, the variability associated with extreme precipitation estimates was slightly greater at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. The reliability of precipitation data sets is mainly limited by the number and spatial coverage of surface stations, the satellite algorithms, and the data assimilation models. The inconsistencies described limit the capability of the products for climate monitoring, attribution, and model validation.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/2017RG000574},
author = {Sun, Qiaohong and Miao, Chiyuan and Duan, Qingyun and Ashouri, Hamed and Sorooshian, Soroosh and Hsu, Kuo-Lin},
doi = {10.1002/2017RG000574},
issn = {8755-1209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {development,gauge-based,global precipitation,reanalysis,satellite-based,uncertainty},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {79--107},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and Intercomparisons}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000574},
volume = {56},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sunyer2014,
author = {Sunyer, Maria Antonia and Madsen, Henrik and Rosbjerg, Dan and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00589.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {7113--7132},
title = {{A Bayesian Approach for Uncertainty Quantification of Extreme Precipitation Projections Including Climate Model Interdependency and Nonstationary Bias}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00589.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{10.1117/1.JRS.8.084994,
author = {Susskind, Joel and Blaisdell, John M and Iredell, Lena},
doi = {10.1117/1.JRS.8.084994},
journal = {Journal of Applied Remote Sensing},
number = {1},
pages = {1--34},
publisher = {SPIE},
title = {{Improved methodology for surface and atmospheric soundings, error estimates, and quality control procedures: the atmospheric infrared sounder science team version-6 retrieval algorithm}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.8.084994},
volume = {8},
year = {2014}
}
@article{esd-9-1155-2018,
author = {Sutton, R T},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {4},
pages = {1155--1158},
title = {{ESD Ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/1155/2018/},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Swales2018,
abstract = {Abstract. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) gathers together a collection of observation proxies or satellite simulators that translate model-simulated cloud properties to synthetic observations as would be obtained by a range of satellite observing systems. This paper introduces COSP2, an evolution focusing on more explicit and consistent separation between host model, coupling infrastructure, and individual observing proxies. Revisions also enhance flexibility by allowing for model-specific representation of sub-grid-scale cloudiness, provide greater clarity by clearly separating tasks, support greater use of shared code and data including shared inputs across simulators, and follow more uniform software standards to simplify implementation across a wide range of platforms. The complete package including a testing suite is freely available.},
author = {Swales, Dustin J. and Pincus, Robert and Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-77-2018},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {77--81},
title = {{The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package: Version 2}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/77/2018/},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Swart2002,
author = {Swart, R and Mitchell, J and Morita, T and Raper, S},
doi = {10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00039-0},
issn = {0959-3780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {oct},
number = {3},
pages = {155--165},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Stabilisation scenarios for climate impact assessment}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378002000390},
volume = {12},
year = {2002}
}
@article{Swindles2018,
abstract = {Human-induced climate change is causing rapid melting of ice in many volcanically active regions. Over glacial-interglacial time scales changes in surface loading exerted by large variations in glacier size affect the rates of volcanic activity. Numerical models suggest that smaller changes in ice volume over shorter time scales may also influence rates of mantle melt generation. However, this effect has not been verified in the geological record. Furthermore, the time lag between climatic forcing and a resultant change in the frequency of volcanic eruptions is unknown. We present empirical evidence that the frequency of volcanic eruptions in Iceland was affected by glacial extent, modulated by climate, on multicentennial time scales during the Holocene. We examine the frequency of volcanic ash deposition over northern Europe and compare this with Icelandic eruptions. We identify a period of markedly reduced volcanic activity centered on 5.5-4.5 ka that was preceded by a major change in atmospheric circulation patterns, expressed in the North Atlantic as a deepening of the Icelandic Low, favoring glacial advance on Iceland. We calculate an apparent time lag of {\~{}}600 yr between the climate event and change in eruption frequency. Given the time lag identified here, increase in volcanic eruptions due to ongoing deglaciation since the end of the Little Ice Age may not become apparent for hundreds of years.},
author = {Swindles, Graeme T. and Watson, Elizabeth J. and Savov, Ivan P. and Lawson, Ian T. and Schmidt, Anja and Hooper, Andrew and Cooper, Claire L. and Connor, Charles B. and Gloor, Manuel and Carrivick, Jonathan L.},
doi = {10.1130/G39633.1},
issn = {0091-7613},
journal = {Geology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {47--50},
title = {{Climatic control on Icelandic volcanic activity during the mid-Holocene}},
url = {https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/geology/article-lookup?doi=10.1130/G39633.1},
volume = {46},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{Tans2019,
author = {Tans, P. and Keeling, R.F.},
publisher = {Global Monitoring Laboratory, National Oceanic {\&} Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratories (NOAA/ESRL)},
title = {{Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide}},
url = {www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/},
urldate = {2021-03-01},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Tapiador2020,
abstract = {Regional Climate Models (RCMs) emerged 30 years ago as a transient tool to provide detailed estimates of meteorological parameters (temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, and others) for regional applications. Their dynamic downscaling approach was intended to fill the gap between the global but coarse estimates of Global Climate/Circulation Models (GCMs), which typically had a 2.5° resolution, and practical requirements such as estimating precipitation for hydrologic operations in small basins under conditions of increased greenhouse gas emissions. Over the three decades, RCMs provided data to inform policies and helped to increase knowledge of the present climate and the impacts of global warming at regional level. This paper describes the major achievements of RCMs, critically reviewing the main issues and limitations that have been featured in the literature. It puts forward a controversial claim aimed at starting a debate in the climate community, namely, that the cycle of RCM research has reached an end for informing policies. This is because these models have recently been superseded for that purpose by high-resolution GCMs and Earth System Models (ESM).},
author = {Tapiador, Francisco J and Navarro, Andr{\'{e}}s and Moreno, Ra{\'{u}}l and S{\'{a}}nchez, Jos{\'{e}} Luis and Garc{\'{i}}a-Ortega, Eduardo},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104785},
issn = {0169-8095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
pages = {104785},
title = {{Regional climate models: 30 years of dynamical downscaling}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809519308403},
volume = {235},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Tapley2019,
abstract = {Time-resolved satellite gravimetry has revolutionized understanding of mass transport in the Earth system. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has enabled monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle, ice sheet and glacier mass balance, sea level change and ocean bottom pressure variations, as well as understanding responses to changes in the global climate system. Initially a pioneering experiment of geodesy, the time-variable observations have matured into reliable mass transport products, allowing assessment and forecast of a number of important climate trends, and improvements in service applications such as the United States Drought Monitor. With the successful launch of the GRACE Follow-On mission, a multi-decadal record of mass variability in the Earth system is within reach.},
author = {Tapley, Byron D and Watkins, Michael M and Flechtner, Frank and Reigber, Christoph and Bettadpur, Srinivas and Rodell, Matthew and Sasgen, Ingo and Famiglietti, James S and Landerer, Felix W and Chambers, Don P and Reager, John T and Gardner, Alex S and Save, Himanshu and Ivins, Erik R and Swenson, Sean C and Boening, Carmen and Dahle, Christoph and Wiese, David N and Dobslaw, Henryk and Tamisiea, Mark E and Velicogna, Isabella},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0456-2},
issn = {1758-6798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {5},
pages = {358--369},
title = {{Contributions of GRACE to understanding climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0456-2},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tardif2018,
abstract = {Abstract. The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) utilizes an ensemble methodology to assimilate paleoclimate data for the production of annually resolved climate field reconstructions of the Common Era. Two key elements are the focus of this work: the set of assimilated proxy records and the forward models that map climate variables to proxy measurements. Results based on an updated proxy database and seasonal regression-based forward models are compared to the LMR prototype, which was based on a smaller set of proxy records and simpler proxy models formulated as univariate linear regressions against annual temperature. Validation against various instrumental-era gridded analyses shows that the new reconstructions of surface air temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height are significantly improved (from 10 {\%} to more than 100 {\%}), while improvements in reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index are more modest. Additional experiments designed to isolate the sources of improvement reveal the importance of the updated proxy records, including coral records for improving tropical reconstructions, and tree-ring density records for temperature reconstructions, particularly in high northern latitudes. Proxy forward models that account for seasonal responses, and dependence on both temperature and moisture for tree-ring width, also contribute to improvements in reconstructed thermodynamic and hydroclimate variables in midlatitudes. The variability of temperature at multidecadal to centennial scales is also shown to be sensitive to the set of assimilated proxies, especially to the inclusion of primarily moisture-sensitive tree-ring-width records.},
author = {Tardif, Robert and Hakim, Gregory J. and Perkins, Walter A. and Horlick, Kaleb A. and Erb, Michael P. and Emile-Geay, Julien and Anderson, David M. and Steig, Eric J. and Noone, David},
doi = {10.5194/cp-15-1251-2019},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {1251--1273},
title = {{Last Millennium Reanalysis with an expanded proxy database and seasonal proxy modeling}},
url = {https://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2018-120/ https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/15/1251/2019/},
volume = {15},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Taylor2012,
author = {Taylor, Karl E. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Meehl, Gerald A.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {485--498},
title = {{An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1},
volume = {93},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Taylor2016a,
abstract = {Twenty-first–century climate change is projected to increase fire activity in California, but predictions are uncertain because humans can amplify or buffer fire–climate relationships. We combined a tree-ring–based fire history with 20th-century area burned data to show that large fire regime shifts during the past 415 y corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate variability. Climate amplified large-scale fire activity after Native American depopulation reduced the buffering effect of Native American burns on fire spread. Later Euro-American settlement and fire suppression buffered fire activity from long-term temperature increases. Our findings highlight a need to enhance our understanding of human–fire interactions to improve the skill of future projections of fire driven by climate change.Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire–climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600–2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring–based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire–climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation—following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)—reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire–climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire–climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California.},
author = {Taylor, Alan H and Trouet, Valerie and Skinner, Carl N and Stephens, Scott},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1609775113},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {48},
pages = {13684--13689},
title = {{Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/113/48/13684.abstract},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Tebaldi2013,
abstract = {Climate change mitigation acts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and thus curbing, or even reversing, the increase in their atmospheric concentration. This reduces the associated anthropogenic radiative forcing, and hence the size of the warming. Because of the inertia and internal variability affecting the climate system and the global carbon cycle, it is unlikely that a reduction in warming would be immediately discernible. Here we use 21st century simulations from the latest ensemble of Earth System Model experiments to investigate and quantify when mitigation becomes clearly discernible. We use one of the scenarios as a reference for a strong mitigation strategy, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and compare its outcome with either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5, both of which are less severe mitigation pathways. We analyze global mean atmospheric CO2, and changes in annually and seasonally averaged surface temperature at global and regional scales. For global mean surface temperature, the median detection time of mitigation is about 25-30 y after RCP2.6 emissions depart from the higher emission trajectories. This translates into detection of a mitigation signal by 2035 or 2045, depending on whether the comparison is with RCP8.5 or RCP4.5, respectively. The detection of climate benefits of emission mitigation occurs later at regional scales, with a median detection time between 30 and 45 y after emission paths separate. Requiring a 95{\%} confidence level induces a delay of several decades, bringing detection time toward the end of the 21st century.},
author = {Tebaldi, Claudia and Friedlingstein, Pierre},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1300005110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Climate variability,Regional climate change,Signal detection},
month = {oct},
number = {43},
pages = {17229--17234},
title = {{Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1300005110},
volume = {110},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Tebaldi2014,
author = {Tebaldi, Claudia and Arblaster, Julie M.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {459--471},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Tebaldi2021,
abstract = {Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 {\%}–95 {\%} envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.},
author = {Tebaldi, Claudia and Debeire, Kevin and Eyring, Veronika and Fischer, Erich and Fyfe, John and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Knutti, Reto and Lowe, Jason and O'Neill, Brian and Sanderson, Benjamin and van Vuuren, Detlef and Riahi, Keywan and Meinshausen, Malte and Nicholls, Zebedee and Tokarska, Katarzyna B. and Hurtt, George and Kriegler, Elmar and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Meehl, Gerald and Moss, Richard and Bauer, Susanne E. and Boucher, Olivier and Brovkin, Victor and Byun, Young-Hwa and Dix, Martin and Gualdi, Silvio and Guo, Huan and John, Jasmin G. and Kharin, Slava and Kim, YoungHo and Koshiro, Tsuyoshi and Ma, Libin and Olivi{\'{e}}, Dirk and Panickal, Swapna and Qiao, Fangli and Rong, Xinyao and Rosenbloom, Nan and Schupfner, Martin and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland and Sellar, Alistair and Semmler, Tido and Shi, Xiaoying and Song, Zhenya and Steger, Christian and Stouffer, Ronald and Swart, Neil and Tachiiri, Kaoru and Tang, Qi and Tatebe, Hiroaki and Voldoire, Aurore and Volodin, Evgeny and Wyser, Klaus and Xin, Xiaoge and Yang, Shuting and Yu, Yongqiang and Ziehn, Tilo},
doi = {10.5194/esd-12-253-2021},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {253--293},
title = {{Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/253/2021/},
volume = {12},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Tebaldi2018,
author = {Tebaldi, Claudia and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabef2},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {055006},
title = {{Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabef2},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Tebaldi2004,
author = {Tebaldi, C.},
doi = {10.1029/2004GL021276},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {24},
pages = {L24213},
title = {{Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2004GL021276},
volume = {31},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Thackeray2020,
author = {Thackeray, Stephen J. and Robinson, Sharon A. and Smith, Pete and Bruno, Rhea and Kirschbaum, Miko U. F. and Bernacchi, Carl and Byrne, Maria and Cheung, William and Cotrufo, M. Francesca and Gienapp, Phillip and Hartley, Sue and Janssens, Ivan and {Hefin Jones}, T. and Kobayashi, Kazuhiko and Luo, Yiqi and Penuelas, Josep and Sage, Rowan and Suggett, David J. and Way, Danielle and Long, Steve},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14978},
issn = {1354-1013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1042--1044},
title = {{Civil disobedience movements such as School Strike for the Climate are raising public awareness of the climate change emergency}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.14978},
volume = {26},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Thiery2020,
abstract = {Irrigation affects climate conditions – and especially hot extremes – in various regions across the globe. Yet how these climatic effects compare to other anthropogenic forcings is largely unknown. Here we provide observational and model evidence that expanding irrigation has dampened historical anthropogenic warming during hot days, with particularly strong effects over South Asia. We show that irrigation expansion can explain the negative correlation between global observed changes in daytime summer temperatures and present-day irrigation extent. While global warming increases the likelihood of hot extremes almost globally, irrigation can regionally cancel or even reverse the effects of all other forcings combined. Around one billion people (0.79–1.29) currently benefit from this dampened increase in hot extremes because irrigation massively expanded throughout the 20 {\$}{\$}{\{}{\}}{\^{}}{\{}th{\}}{\$}{\$} t h century. Our results therefore highlight that irrigation substantially reduced human exposure to warming of hot extremes but question whether this benefit will continue towards the future.},
author = {Thiery, Wim and Visser, Auke J. and Fischer, Erich M. and Hauser, Mathias and Hirsch, Annette L. and Lawrence, David M. and Lejeune, Quentin and Davin, Edouard L. and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-14075-4},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {290},
title = {{Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-14075-4},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Thomason2018,
abstract = {Abstract. We describe the construction of a continuous 38-year record of stratospheric aerosol optical properties. The Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology, or GloSSAC, provided the input data to the construction of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project stratospheric aerosol forcing data set (1979–2014) and we have extended it through 2016 following an identical process. GloSSAC focuses on the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) series of instruments through mid-2005, and on the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) data thereafter. We also use data from other space instruments and from ground-based, air, and balloon borne instruments to fill in key gaps in the data set. The end result is a global and gap-free data set focused on aerosol extinction coefficient at 525 and 1020nm and other parameters on an “as available” basis. For the primary data sets, we developed a new method for filling the post-Pinatubo eruption data gap for 1991–1993 based on data from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer. In addition, we developed a new method for populating wintertime high latitudes during the SAGE period employing a latitude-equivalent latitude conversion process that greatly improves the depiction of aerosol at high latitudes compared to earlier similar efforts. We report data in the troposphere only when and where it is available. This is primarily during the SAGE II period except for the most enhanced part of the Pinatubo period. It is likely that the upper troposphere during Pinatubo was greatly enhanced over non-volcanic periods and that domain remains substantially under-characterized. We note that aerosol levels during the OSIRIS/CALIPSO period in the lower stratosphere at mid- and high latitudes is routinely higher than what we observed during the SAGE II period. While this period had nearly continuous low-level volcanic activity, it is possible that the enhancement in part reflects deficiencies in the data set. We also expended substantial effort to quality assess the data set and the product is by far the best we have produced. GloSSAC version 1.0 is available in netCDF format at the NASA Atmospheric Data Center at https://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/. GloSSAC users should cite this paper and the data set DOI (https://doi.org/10.5067/GloSSAC-L3-V1.0). ]]{\textgreater}},
author = {Thomason, Larry W. and Ernest, Nicholas and Mill{\'{a}}n, Luis and Rieger, Landon and Bourassa, Adam and Vernier, Jean-Paul and Manney, Gloria and Luo, Beiping and Arfeuille, Florian and Peter, Thomas},
doi = {10.5194/essd-10-469-2018},
issn = {1866-3516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {469--492},
title = {{A global space-based stratospheric aerosol climatology: 1979–2016}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/469/2018/},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Thompson2008a,
abstract = {The record of global sea-surface temperatures spanning the past century provides key evidence for global warming and is much scrutinized with a view to distinguishing between anthropogenic and natural climate variability. It has been assumed that this record is now largely free of substantial uncorrected instrument biases. Not so, according to a team assembled from four of the world's leading climate research institutes. They have identified a pronounced discontinuity in the record — a sudden drop of about 0.3 °C in global sea-surface temperature in 1945 — that coincides with a significant change in the shipboard instrumentation used to collect the data. This discontinuity is 40{\%} as large as the century-long upward trend in temperatures, so correcting for it is likely to change the overall record and its interpretation substantially.},
author = {Thompson, David W. J. and Kennedy, John J. and Wallace, John M. and Jones, Phil D.},
doi = {10.1038/nature06982},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
month = {may},
number = {7195},
pages = {646--649},
title = {{A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature06982 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06982},
volume = {453},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Thorne2011,
abstract = {Changes in atmospheric temperature have a particular importance in climate research because climate models consistently predict a distinctive vertical profile$\backslash$r$\backslash$nof trends. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the surface and troposphere are consistently projected to warm, with an enhancement of that warming in the tropical upper troposphere. Hence, attempts to detect this distinct$\backslash$r$\backslash$n‘fingerprint' have been a focus for observational studies. The topic acquired heightened importance following the 1990 publication of an analysis of satellite data which challenged the reality of the projected tropospheric warming. This review documents the evolution over the last four decades of understanding of tropospheric temperature trends and their likely causes. Particular focus$\backslash$r$\backslash$nis given to the difficulty of producing homogenized datasets, with which to derive trends, from both radiosonde and satellite observing systems, because of the many systematic changes over time. The value of multiple independent analyses is demonstrated. Paralleling developments in observational datasets, increased computer power and improved understanding of climate forcing$\backslash$r$\backslash$nmechanisms have led to refined estimates of temperature trends from a wide range of climate models and a better understanding of internal variability. It is concluded that there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively},
author = {Thorne, Peter W. and Lanzante, John R. and Peterson, Thomas C. and Seidel, Dian J. and Shine, Keith P.},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.80},
isbn = {1757-7799},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {66--88},
title = {{Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.80},
volume = {2},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Thorne2010,
author = {Thorne, P. W. and Vose, R. S.},
doi = {10.1175/2009BAMS2858.1},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {3},
pages = {353--361},
title = {{Reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends}},
volume = {91},
year = {2010}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087232,
abstract = {Abstract The double-intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias is one of the most outstanding errors in all previous generations of climate models. Here, the annual double-ITCZ bias and the associated precipitation bias in the latest climate models for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 (CMIP6) are examined in comparison to their previous generations (CMIP Phase 3 [CMIP3] and CMIP Phase 5 [CMIP5]). All three generations of CMIP models share similar systematic annual multi-model ensemble mean precipitation errors in the tropics. The notorious double-ITCZ bias and its big inter-model spread persist in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. Based on several tropical precipitation bias indices, the double-ITCZ bias is slightly reduced from CMIP3 or CMIP5 to CMIP6. In addition, the annual equatorial Pacific cold tongue persists in all three generations of CMIP models, but its inter-model spread is reduced from CMIP3 to CMIP5 and from CMIP5 to CMIP6.},
annote = {e2020GL087232 2020GL087232},
author = {Tian, Baijun and Dong, Xinyu},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL087232},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP3,CMIP5,CMIP6,Climate Models,Double-ITCZ bias,Precipitation},
number = {8},
pages = {e2020GL087232},
title = {{The Double-ITCZ Bias in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Models Based on Annual Mean Precipitation}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL087232},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Tierney2015a,
abstract = {AbstractMost annually resolved climate reconstructions of the Common Era are based on terrestrial data, making it a challenge to independently assess how recent climate changes have affected the oceans. Here as part of the Past Global Changes Ocean2K project, we present four regionally calibrated and validated reconstructions of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, based on 57 published and publicly archived marine paleoclimate data sets derived exclusively from tropical coral archives. Validation exercises suggest that our reconstructions are interpretable for much of the past 400 years, depending on the availability of paleoclimate data within, and the reconstruction validation statistics for, each target region. Analysis of the trends in the data suggests that the Indian, western Pacific, and western Atlantic Ocean regions were cooling until modern warming began around the 1830s. The early 1800s were an exceptionally cool period in the Indo-Pacific region, likely due to multiple large tropical volcanic eruptions occurring in the early nineteenth century. Decadal-scale variability is a quasi-persistent feature of all basins. Twentieth century warming associated with greenhouse gas emissions is apparent in the Indian, West Pacific, and western Atlantic Oceans, but we find no evidence that either natural or anthropogenic forcings have altered El Ni{\~{n}}o?Southern Oscillation-related variance in tropical sea surface temperatures. Our marine-based regional paleoclimate reconstructions serve as benchmarks against which terrestrial reconstructions as well as climate model simulations can be compared and as a basis for studying the processes by which the tropical oceans mediate climate variability and change.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/2014PA002717},
author = {Tierney, Jessica E and Abram, Nerilie J and Anchukaitis, Kevin J and Evans, Michael N and Giry, Cyril and Kilbourne, K Halimeda and Saenger, Casey P and Wu, Henry C and Zinke, Jens},
doi = {10.1002/2014PA002717},
issn = {0883-8305},
journal = {Paleoceanography},
keywords = {climate reconstruction,corals,last millennium climate,paleoceanography},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {226--252},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Tropical sea surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2014PA002717},
volume = {30},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tierney2020c,
abstract = {The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), one of the best studied palaeoclimatic intervals, offers an excellent opportunity to investigate how the climate system responds to changes in greenhouse gases and the cryosphere. Previous work has sought to constrain the magnitude and pattern of glacial cooling from palaeothermometers1,2, but the uneven distribution of the proxies, as well as their uncertainties, has challenged the construction of a full-field view of the LGM climate state. Here we combine a large collection of geochemical proxies for sea surface temperature with an isotope-enabled climate model ensemble to produce a field reconstruction of LGM temperatures using data assimilation. The reconstruction is validated with withheld proxies as well as independent ice core and speleothem $\delta$18O measurements. Our assimilated product provides a constraint on global mean LGM cooling of −6.1 degrees Celsius (95 per cent confidence interval: −6.5 to −5.7 degrees Celsius). Given assumptions concerning the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases, ice sheets and mineral dust aerosols, this cooling translates to an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.4 degrees Celsius (2.4–4.5 degrees Celsius), a value that is higher than previous LGM-based estimates but consistent with the traditional consensus range of 2–4.5 degrees Celsius3,4.},
author = {Tierney, Jessica E and Zhu, Jiang and King, Jonathan and Malevich, Steven B and Hakim, Gregory J and Poulsen, Christopher J},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2617-x},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7822},
pages = {569--573},
title = {{Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2617-x},
volume = {584},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Tierney2020b,
abstract = {A major cause of uncertainties in climate projections is our imprecise knowledge of how much warming should occur as a result of a given increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Paleoclimate records have the potential to help us sharpen that understanding because they record such a wide variety of environmental conditions. Tierney et al. review the recent advances in data collection, statistics, and modeling that might help us better understand how rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide will affect future climate.Science, this issue p. eaay3701BACKGROUNDAnthropogenic emissions are rapidly altering Earth's climate, pushing it toward a warmer state for which there is no historical precedent. Although no perfect analog exists for such a disruption, Earth's history includes past climate states—“paleoclimates”—that hold lessons for the future of our warming world. These periods in Earth's past span a tremendous range of temperatures, precipitation patterns, cryospheric extent, and biospheric adaptations and are increasingly relevant for improving our understanding of how key elements of the climate system are affected by greenhouse gas levels. The rise of new geochemical and statistical methods, as well as improvements in paleoclimate modeling, allow for formal evaluation of climate models based on paleoclimate data. In particular, given that some of the newest generation of climate models have a high sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, there is a renewed role for paleoclimates in constraining equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and its dependence on climate background state.ADVANCESIn the past decade, an increasing number of studies have used paleoclimate temperature and CO2 estimates to infer ECS in the deep past, in both warm and cold climate states. Recent studies support the paradigm that ECS is strongly state-dependent, rising with increased CO2 concentrations. Simulations of past warm climates such as the Eocene further highlight the role that cloud feedbacks play in contributing to high ECS under increased CO2 levels. Paleoclimates have provided critical constraints on the assessment of future ice sheet stability and concomitant sea level rise, including the viability of threshold processes like marine ice cliff instability. Beyond global-scale changes, analyses of past changes in the water cycle have advanced our understanding of dynamical drivers of hydroclimate, which is highly relevant for regional climate projections and societal impacts. New and expanding techniques, such as analyses of single shells of foraminifera, are yielding subseasonal climate information that can be used to study how intra- and interannual modes of variability are affected by external climate forcing. Studies of extraordinary, transient departures in paleoclimate from the background state such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum provide critical context for the current anthropogenic aberration, its impact on the Earth system, and the time scale of recovery.A number of advances have eroded the “language barrier” between climate model and proxy data, facilitating more direct use of paleoclimate information to constrain model performance. It is increasingly common to incorporate geochemical tracers, such as water isotopes, directly into model simulations, and this practice has vastly improved model-proxy comparisons. The development of new statistical approaches rooted in Bayesian inference has led to a more thorough quantification of paleoclimate data uncertainties. In addition, techniques like data assimilation allow for a formal combination of proxy and model data into hybrid products. Such syntheses provide a full-field view of past climates and can put constraints on climate variables that we have no direct proxies for, such as cloud cover or wind speed.OUTLOOKA common concern with using paleoclimate information as model targets is that non-CO2 forcings, such as aerosols and trace greenhouse gases, are not well known, especially in the distant past. Although evidence thus far suggests that such forcings are secondary to CO2, future improvements in both geochemical proxies and modeling are on track to tackle this issue. New and rapidly evolving geochemical techniques have the potential to provide improved constraints on the terrestrial biosphere, aerosols, and trace gases; likewise, biogeochemical cycles can now be incorporated into paleoclimate model simulations. Beyond constraining forcings, it is critical that proxy information is transformed into quantitative estimates that account for uncertainties in the proxy system. Statistical tools have already been developed to achieve this, which should make it easier to create robust targets for model evaluation. With this increase in quantification of paleoclimate information, we suggest that modeling centers include simulation of past climates in their evaluation and statement of their model performance. This practice is likely to narrow uncertainties surrounding climate sensitivity, ice sheets, and the water cycle and thus improve future climate projections.Past climates provide context for future climate scenarios.Both past (top) and future (bottom) climates are colored by their estimated change in global mean annual surface temperature relative to preindustrial conditions, ranging from blue (colder) to red (warmer). “Sustainability,” “Middle road,” and “High emissions” represent the estimated global temperature anomalies at year 2300 from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. In both the past and future cases, warmer climates are associated with increases in CO2 (indicated by the arrow). Ma, millions of years ago.As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation—a practice that we argue should be widely adopted.},
author = {Tierney, Jessica E and Poulsen, Christopher J and Monta{\~{n}}ez, Isabel P and Bhattacharya, Tripti and Feng, Ran and Ford, Heather L and H{\"{o}}nisch, B{\"{a}}rbel and Inglis, Gordon N and Petersen, Sierra V and Sagoo, Navjit and Tabor, Clay R and Thirumalai, Kaustubh and Zhu, Jiang and Burls, Natalie J and Foster, Gavin L and Godd{\'{e}}ris, Yves and Huber, Brian T and Ivany, Linda C and {Kirtland Turner}, Sandra and Lunt, Daniel J and McElwain, Jennifer C and Mills, Benjamin J W and Otto-Bliesner, Bette L and Ridgwell, Andy and Zhang, Yi Ge},
doi = {10.1126/science.aay3701},
journal = {Science},
month = {nov},
number = {6517},
pages = {eaay3701},
title = {{Past climates inform our future}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6517/eaay3701.abstract},
volume = {370},
year = {2020}
}
@misc{Tilbrook2019,
abstract = {A successful integrated ocean acidification (OA) observing network must include (1) scientists and technicians from a range of disciplines from physics to chemistry to biology to technology development; (2) government, private, and intergovernmental support; (3) regional cohorts working together on regionally specific issues; (4) publicly accessible data from the open ocean to coastal to estuarine systems; (5) close integration with other networks focusing on related measurements or issues including the social and economic consequences of OA; and (6) observation-based informational products useful for decision making such as management of fisheries and aquaculture. The Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON), a key player in this vision, seeks to expand and enhance geographic extent and availability of coastal and open ocean observing data to ultimately inform adaptive measures and policy action, especially in support of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. GOA-ON works to empower and support regional collaborative networks such as the Latin American Ocean Acidification Network, supports new scientists entering the field with training, mentorship, and equipment, refines approaches for tracking biological impacts, and stimulates development of lower-cost methodology and technologies allowing for wider participation of scientists. GOA-ON seeks to collaborate with and complement work done by other observing networks such as those focused on carbon flux into the ocean, tracking of carbon and oxygen in the ocean, observing biological diversity, and determining short- and long-term variability in these and other ocean parameters through space and time.},
author = {Tilbrook, Bronte and Jewett, Elizabeth B and DeGrandpre, Michael D and Hernandez-Ayon, Jose Martin and Feely, Richard A and Gledhill, Dwight K and Hansson, Lina and Isensee, Kirsten and Kurz, Meredith L and Newton, Janet A and Siedlecki, Samantha A and Chai, Fei and Dupont, Sam and Graco, Michelle and Calvo, Eva and Greeley, Dana and Kapsenberg, Lydia and Lebrec, Marine and Pelejero, Carles and Schoo, Katherina L and Telszewski, Maciej},
booktitle = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00337},
isbn = {2296-7745},
pages = {337},
title = {{An Enhanced Ocean Acidification Observing Network: From People to Technology to Data Synthesis and Information Exchange}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00337},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tilling2018,
abstract = {Arctic sea ice is a major element of the Earth's climate system. It acts to regulate regional heat and freshwater budgets and subsequent atmospheric and oceanic circulation across the Arctic and at lower latitudes. Satellites have observed a decline in Arctic sea ice extent for all months since 1979. However, to fully understand how changes in the Arctic sea ice cover impact on our global weather and climate, long-term and accurate observations of its thickness distribution are also required. Such observations were made possible with the launch of the European Space Agency's (ESA's) CryoSat-2 satellite in April 2010, which provides unparalleled coverage of the Arctic Ocean up to 88°N. Here we provide an end-to-end, comprehensive description of the data processing steps employed to estimate Northern Hemisphere sea ice thickness and subsequent volume using CryoSat-2 radar altimeter data and complementary observations. This is a sea ice processor that has been under constant development at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) since the early 1990s. We show that there is no significant bias in our satellite sea ice thickness retrievals when compared with independent measurements. We also provide a detailed analysis of the uncertainties associated with our sea ice thickness and volume estimates by considering the independent sources of error in the retrieval. Each month, the main contributors to the uncertainty are snow depth and snow density, which suggests that a crucial next step in Arctic sea ice research is to develop improved estimates of snow loading. In this paper we apply our theory and methods solely to CryoSat-2 data in the Northern Hemisphere. However, they may act as a guide to developing a sea ice processing system for satellite radar altimeter data over the Southern Hemisphere, and from other Polar orbiting missions.},
author = {Tilling, Rachel L and Ridout, Andy and Shepherd, Andrew},
doi = {10.1016/j.asr.2017.10.051},
issn = {0273-1177},
journal = {Advances in Space Research},
keywords = {Arctic,Cryosphere,Remote sensing,Sea ice},
number = {6},
pages = {1203--1225},
title = {{Estimating Arctic sea ice thickness and volume using CryoSat-2 radar altimeter data}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117717307901},
volume = {62},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Tokarska2019,
author = {Tokarska, Katarzyna B. and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Rogelj, Joeri and Stolpe, Martin B. and Matthews, H. Damon and Pfleiderer, Peter and Gillett, Nathan P.},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0493-5},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {964--971},
title = {{Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0493-5},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tolwinski-Ward2011,
abstract = {We present a simple, efficient, process-based forward model of tree-ring growth, called Vaganov–Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite), that requires as inputs only latitude and monthly temperature and precipitation. Simulations of six bristlecone pine ring-width chronologies demonstrate the interpretability of model output as an accurate representation of the climatic controls on growth. Ensemble simulations by VS-Lite of two networks of North American ring-width chronologies correlate with observations at higher significance levels on average than simulations formed by regression of ring width on the principal components of the same monthly climate data. VS-Lite retains more skill outside of calibration intervals than does the principal components regression approach. It captures the dominant low- and high-frequency spatiotemporal ring-width signals in the network with an inhomogeneous, multivariate relationship to climate. Because continuous meteorological data are most widely available at monthly temporal resolution, our model extends the set of sites at which forward-modeling studies are possible. Other potential uses of VS-Lite include generation of synthetic ring-width series for pseudo-proxy studies, as a data level model in data assimilation-based climate reconstructions, and for bias estimation in actual ring-width index series.},
author = {Tolwinski-Ward, Susan E and Evans, Michael N and Hughes, Malcolm K and Anchukaitis, Kevin J},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-010-0945-5},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {11},
pages = {2419--2439},
title = {{An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0945-5},
volume = {36},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Toon1976,
author = {Toon, Owen B. and Pollack, James B.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0450(1976)015<0225:AGAMOA>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0021-8952},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {225--246},
title = {{A Global Average Model of Atmospheric Aerosols for Radiative Transfer Calculations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0450{\%}281976{\%}29015{\%}3C0225{\%}3AAGAMOA{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {15},
year = {1976}
}
@article{Touze-Peiffer2020,
abstract = {Abstract The results of the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) are currently being analyzed and will form the basis of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Since its creation in the mid-1990s, CMIP has had an increasing influence on climate research. While the principle behind it has always remained the same?comparing different climate models under similar conditions?its design and motivations have evolved significantly over the phases of the project. This evolution is closely linked to that of the IPCC since, historically as well as today, the results of CMIP have played a major role in the Panel's reports. This role increased the visibility of CMIP. Over time, more and more people started to be interested in CMIP and to analyze its results. Despite this success, the way CMIP is used today raises methodological issues. In fact, CMIP has promoted a particular way of doing climate research, centered on a single tool?Global Coupled Models (GCMs)?and creating a gap between model developers and model users. Due to the debates regarding the interpretation of multi-model ensembles and the validation of GCMs, whether the emphasis on this particular way of studying climate is serving the progress of climate science is questionable. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling {\textgreater} Knowledge Generation with Models},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.648},
author = {Touz{\'{e}}-Peiffer, Ludovic and Barberousse, Anouk and {Le Treut}, Herv{\'{e}}},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.648},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
keywords = {CMIP,IPCC,climate models,epistemology,numerical simulations},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {e648},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: History, uses, and structural effects on climate research}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.648},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Toyoda2017,
abstract = {The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948–2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.},
author = {Toyoda, Takahiro and Fujii, Yosuke and Kuragano, Tsurane and Kosugi, Naohiro and Sasano, Daisuke and Kamachi, Masafumi and Ishikawa, Yoichi and Masuda, Shuhei and Sato, Kanako and Awaji, Toshiyuki and Hernandez, Fabrice and Ferry, Nicolas and Guinehut, St{\'{e}}phanie and Martin, Matthew and {Andrew Peterson}, K and Good, Simon A and Valdivieso, Maria and Haines, Keith and Storto, Andrea and Masina, Simona and K{\"{o}}hl, Armin and Yin, Yonghong and Shi, Li and Alves, Oscar and Smith, Gregory and Chang, You-Soon and Vernieres, Guillaume and Wang, Xiaochun and Forget, Gael and Heimbach, Patrick and Wang, Ou and Fukumori, Ichiro and Lee, Tong and Zuo, Hao and Balmaseda, Magdalena},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2762-3},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {891--907},
title = {{Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2762-3},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Trenberth2016,
abstract = {An end-to-end comprehensive climate information system is needed to complement mitigation and adaptation as responses to the threat of human-induced climate change.},
author = {Trenberth, Kevin E. and Marquis, Melinda and Zebiak, Stephen},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3170},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1057--1059},
title = {{The vital need for a climate information system}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3170},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Trenberth2019,
abstract = {Ocean meridional heat transports (MHTs) are deduced as a residual using energy budgets to produce latitude versus time series for the globe, Indo-Pacific, and Atlantic. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation is combined with the vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence from atmospheric reanalyses to produce the net surface energy fluxes everywhere. The latter is then combined with estimates of the vertically integrated ocean heat content (OHC) tendency to produce estimates of the ocean heat divergence. Because seasonal sea ice and land runoffeffects are not fully considered, the mean annual cycle is incomplete, but those effects are small for interannual variability. However, there is a mismatch between 12-month inferred surface flux and the corresponding OHC changes globally, requiring adjustments to account for the Earth's global energy imbalance. Estimates are greatly improved by building in the constraint that MHT must go to zero at the northern and southern extents of the ocean basin at all times, enabling biases between the TOA and OHC data to be reconciled. Zonal mean global, Indo-Pacific, and Atlantic basin ocean MHTs are computed and presented as 12-month running means and for the mean annual cycle for 2000-16. For the Indo-Pacific, the tropical and subtropical MHTs feature a strong relationship with El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and in the Atlantic, MHT interannual variability is significantly affected by and likely influences the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, Atlantic and Pacific changes are linked, suggesting that the northern annular mode (as opposed to NAO) is predominant. There is also evidence of decadal variability or trends.},
author = {Trenberth, Kevin E. and Zhang, Yongxin and Fasullo, John T. and Cheng, Lijing},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0872.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Climate variability,ENSO,Energy budget/balance,North Atlantic Oscillation,Ocean circulation},
number = {14},
pages = {4567--4583},
title = {{Observation-based estimates of global and basin ocean meridional heat transport time series}},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Trewin2020,
abstract = {The World Meteorological Organization has developed a set of headline indicators for global climate monitoring. These seven indicators are a subset of the existing set of essential climate variables (ECVs) established by the Global Climate Observing System and are intended to provide the most essential parameters representing the state of the climate system. These indicators include global mean surface temperature, global ocean heat content, state of ocean acidification, glacier mass balance, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent, global CO 2 mole fraction, and global mean sea level. This paper describes how well each of these indicators are currently monitored, including the number and quality of the underlying datasets; the health of those datasets; observation systems used to estimate each indicator; the timeliness of information; and how well recent values can be linked to preindustrial conditions. These aspects vary widely between indicators. While global mean surface temperature is available in close to real time and changes from preindustrial levels can be determined with relatively low uncertainty, this is not the case for many other indicators. Some indicators (e.g., sea ice extent) are largely dependent on satellite data only available in the last 40 years, while some (e.g., ocean acidification) have limited underlying observational bases, and others (e.g., glacial mass balance) with data only available a year or more in arrears.},
author = {Trewin, Blair and Cazenave, Anny and Howell, Stephen and Huss, Matthias and Isensee, Kirsten and Palmer, Matthew D. and Tarasova, Oksana and Vermeulen, Alex},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0196.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {E20--E37},
title = {{Headline Indicators for Global Climate Monitoring}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/1/BAMS-D-19-0196.1.xml},
volume = {102},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Trouet2018,
abstract = {A recent increase in mid-latitude extreme weather events has been linked to Northern Hemisphere polar jet stream anomalies. To put recent trends in a historical perspective, long-term records of jet stream variability are needed. Here we combine two tree-ring records from the British Isles and the northeastern Mediterranean to reconstruct variability in the latitudinal position of the high-summer North Atlantic Jet (NAJ) back to 1725 CE. We find that northward NAJ anomalies have resulted in heatwaves and droughts in northwestern Europe and southward anomalies have promoted wildfires in southeastern Europe. We further find an unprecedented increase in NAJ variance since the 1960s, which co-occurs with enhanced late twentieth century variance in the Central and North Pacific Basin. Our results suggest increased late twentieth century interannual meridional jet stream variability and support more sinuous jet stream patterns and quasi-resonant amplification as potential dynamic pathways for Arctic warming to influence mid-latitude weather.},
author = {Trouet, V and Babst, F and Meko, M},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-02699-3},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {180},
title = {{Recent enhanced high-summer North Atlantic Jet variability emerges from three-century context}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02699-3},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Turner2017,
author = {Turner, John and Comiso, Josefino},
doi = {10.1038/547275a},
journal = {Nature},
pages = {275--277},
title = {{Solve Antarctica's sea-ice puzzle}},
volume = {547},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Twomey1991,
author = {Twomey, S.},
doi = {10.1016/0960-1686(91)90159-5},
issn = {09601686},
journal = {Atmospheric Environment. Part A. General Topics},
month = {jan},
number = {11},
pages = {2435--2442},
title = {{Aerosols, clouds and radiation}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0960168691901595},
volume = {25},
year = {1991}
}
@article{Twomey1959,
author = {Twomey, S.},
doi = {10.1007/BF01993560},
issn = {0033-4553},
journal = {Geofisica Pura e Applicata},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {243--249},
title = {{The nuclei of natural cloud formation part II: The supersaturation in natural clouds and the variation of cloud droplet concentration}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF01993560},
volume = {43},
year = {1959}
}
@article{Tyndall1861,
abstract = {pnedwards},
author = {Tyndall, John},
doi = {10.1098/rstl.1861.0001},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London},
pages = {1--36},
title = {{I. The Bakerian Lecture – On the absorption and radiation of heat by gases and vapours, and on the physical connexion of radiation, absorption, and conduction}},
volume = {151},
year = {1861}
}
@techreport{523249,
address = {New York, NY, USA},
annote = {Annexes (p. 69-77): 1. Report of the Credentials Committee -- 2. Report of the Working Group on the Declaration on the Human Environment -- 3. General principles for assessment and control of marine pollution -- 4. List of documents before the Conference --5. Table showing the correspondence between the numbers of the recommendations as they appear in the report and the numbers of the recommendations as adopted by the Conference.},
author = {UN},
doi = {http://digitallibrary.un.org/record/523249},
pages = {77},
publisher = {United Nations (UN)},
series = {A/CONF.48/14/Rev.1},
title = {{Report of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, Stockholm, 5-16 June 1972}},
url = {http://digitallibrary.un.org/record/523249},
year = {1973}
}
@techreport{UNDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs2015,
abstract = {The final text of the outcome document adopted at the Third Internatinal Conference on Financing for Development (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 13–16 July 2015) and endorsed by the General Assembly in its resolution 69/313 of 27 July 2015.},
author = {{UN DESA}},
doi = {https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/2051AAAA_Outcome.pdf},
pages = {61},
publisher = {UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA)},
title = {{Addis Ababa Action Agenda of the Third International Conference on Financing for Development (Addis Ababa Action Agenda)}},
url = {https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/2051AAAA{\_}Outcome.pdf},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Undorf2018c,
author = {Undorf, S. and Polson, D. and Bollasina, M. A. and Ming, Y. and Schurer, A. and Hegerl, G. C.},
doi = {10.1029/2017JD027711},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {4871--4889},
title = {{Detectable Impact of Local and Remote Anthropogenic Aerosols on the 20th Century Changes of West African and South Asian Monsoon Precipitation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2017JD027711},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{UNEP2016,
address = {Nairobi, Kenya},
author = {UNEP},
doi = {https://ozone.unep.org/sites/default/files/Consolidated-Montreal-Protocol-November-2016.pdf},
pages = {33},
publisher = {United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)},
title = {{The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer – as adjusted and amended up to 15 October 2016 (Kigali Agreement)}},
url = {https://ozone.unep.org/sites/default/files/Consolidated-Montreal-Protocol-November-2016.pdf},
year = {2016}
}
@techreport{UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeUNEP2019,
abstract = {This 9th edition of the UN Environment Emissions Gap Report assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas emissions and compares these with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between "where we are likely to be and where we need to be" is known as the 'emissions gap'. As in previous years, the report explores some of the most important options available for countries to bridge the gap.},
address = {Nairobi, Kenya},
annote = {Times cited: 6},
author = {UNEP},
doi = {https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018},
isbn = {978-92-807-3726-4},
pages = {112},
publisher = {United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)},
title = {{Emissions Gap Report 2018}},
url = {https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{UNEP2012,
address = {Nairobi, Kenya},
author = {UNEP},
doi = {https://www.ipbes.net/document-library-catalogue/unepipbesmi29},
pages = {26},
publisher = {United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)},
series = {UNEP/IPBES.MI/2/9},
title = {{Report of the second session of the plenary meeting to determine modalities and institutional arrangements for an intergovernmental science-policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services}},
url = {https://www.ipbes.net/document-library-catalogue/unepipbesmi29},
year = {2012}
}
@techreport{UNFCCC1992,
author = {UNFCCC},
doi = {https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf},
pages = {24},
publisher = {United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)},
series = {FCCC/INFORMAL/84},
title = {{United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change}},
url = {https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf},
year = {1992}
}
@techreport{UNFCCC2016,
abstract = {This synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the 161 intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) communicated by 189 Parties by 4 April 2016 provides estimates of the aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the implementation of those INDCs. Those levels are compared with the emission levels in 1990, 2000 and 2010 as well as with emission trajectories consistent with (1) action communicated by Parties for the pre-2020 period and (2) holding the average global temperature rise below 2 {\textordmasculine}C and 1.5 {\textordmasculine}C above pre-industrial levels. This document identifies and discusses trends that indicate opportunities for enhanced action to address climate change in the longer term. In addition, it synthesizes information relating to adaptation, which was included in the INDCs communicated by 137 Parties.},
author = {UNFCCC},
doi = {https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/docs/2016/cop22/eng/02.pdf},
pages = {75},
publisher = {United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)},
series = {FCCC/CP/2016/2},
title = {{Aggregate effect of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions: An Update – Synthesis Report by the Secretariat}},
url = {https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/docs/2016/cop22/eng/02.pdf},
year = {2016}
}
@techreport{UNFCCC2015a,
abstract = {This report summarizes the face-to-face dialogue between over 70 experts and Parties on: the adequacy of the long-term global goal in the light of the ultimate objective of the Convention; and the overall progress made towards achieving the long-term global goal, including a consideration of the commitments under the Convention. It includes a technical summary and a compilation of the summary reports on the four sessions of the structured expert dialogue (SED). The technical summary synthesizes the work done by the SED and includes 10 messages capturing the key findings from its sessions.},
author = {UNFCCC},
doi = {https://unfccc.int/documents/8707},
pages = {182},
publisher = {Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)},
series = {FCCC/SB/2015/INF.1},
title = {{Report on the Structured Expert Dialogue on the 2013–2015 Review. Note by the co-facilitators of the structured expert dialogue}},
url = {https://unfccc.int/documents/8707},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{UnitedNations2017,
abstract = {The New Urban Agenda was adopted at the United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development (Habitat III) in Quito, Ecuador, on 20 October 2016. It was endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly at its sixty-eighth plenary meeting of the seventy-first session on 23 December 2016.},
author = {{United Nations}},
doi = {https://unhabitat.org/about-us/new-urban-agenda},
isbn = {978-92-1-132731-1},
pages = {66},
publisher = {Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development (Habitat III) Secretariat},
series = {A/RES/71/256},
title = {{New Urban Agenda}},
url = {https://unhabitat.org/about-us/new-urban-agenda},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Uotila2019,
abstract = {Global and regional ocean and sea ice reanalysis products (ORAs) are increasingly used in polar research, but their quality remains to be systematically assessed. To address this, the Polar ORA Intercomparison Project (Polar ORA-IP) has been established following on from the ORA-IP project. Several aspects of ten selected ORAs in the Arctic and Antarctic were addressed by concentrating on comparing their mean states in terms of snow, sea ice, ocean transports and hydrography. Most polar diagnostics were carried out for the first time in such an extensive set of ORAs. For the multi-ORA mean state, we found that deviations from observations were typically smaller than individual ORA anomalies, often attributed to offsetting biases of individual ORAs. The ORA ensemble mean therefore appears to be a useful product and while knowing its main deficiencies and recognising its restrictions, it can be used to gain useful information on the physical state of the polar marine environment.},
author = {Uotila, Petteri and Goosse, Hugues and Haines, Keith and Chevallier, Matthieu and Barth{\'{e}}lemy, Antoine and Bricaud, Cl{\'{e}}ment and Carton, Jim and Fu{\v{c}}kar, Neven and Garric, Gilles and Iovino, Doroteaciro and Kauker, Frank and Korhonen, Meri and Lien, Vidar S and Marnela, Marika and Massonnet, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Mignac, Davi and Peterson, K Andrew and Sadikni, Remon and Shi, Li and Tietsche, Steffen and Toyoda, Takahiro and Xie, Jiping and Zhang, Zhaoru},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1613--1650},
title = {{An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Valdivieso2017,
abstract = {Sixteen monthly air–sea heat flux products from global ocean/coupled reanalyses are compared over 1993–2009 as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP). Objectives include assessing the global heat closure, the consistency of temporal variability, comparison with other flux products, and documenting errors against in situ flux measurements at a number of OceanSITES moorings. The ensemble of 16 ORA-IP flux estimates has a global positive bias over 1993–2009 of 4.2 ± 1.1 W m−2. Residual heat gain (i.e., surface flux + assimilation increments) is reduced to a small positive imbalance (typically, +1–2 W m−2). This compensation between surface fluxes and assimilation increments is concentrated in the upper 100 m. Implied steady meridional heat transports also improve by including assimilation sources, except near the equator. The ensemble spread in surface heat fluxes is dominated by turbulent fluxes ({\textgreater}40 W m−2 over the western boundary currents). The mean seasonal cycle is highly consistent, with variability between products mostly {\textless}10 W m−2. The interannual variability has consistent signal-to-noise ratio ({\~{}}2) throughout the equatorial Pacific, reflecting ENSO variability. Comparisons at tropical buoy sites (10°S–15°N) over 2007–2009 showed too little ocean heat gain (i.e., flux into the ocean) in ORA-IP (up to 1/3 smaller than buoy measurements) primarily due to latent heat flux errors in ORA-IP. Comparisons with the Stratus buoy (20°S, 85°W) over a longer period, 2001–2009, also show the ORA-IP ensemble has 16 W m−2 smaller net heat gain, nearly all of which is due to too much latent cooling caused by differences in surface winds imposed in ORA-IP.},
author = {Valdivieso, Maria and Haines, Keith and Balmaseda, Magdalena and Chang, You Soon and Drevillon, Marie and Ferry, Nicolas and Fujii, Yosuke and K{\"{o}}hl, Armin and Storto, Andrea and Toyoda, Takahiro and Wang, Xiaochun and Waters, Jennifer and Xue, Yan and Yin, Yonghong and Barnier, Bernard and Hernandez, Fabrice and Kumar, Arun and Lee, Tong and Masina, Simona and {Andrew Peterson}, K.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2843-3},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Assimilation fluxes,Flux comparisons with in situ buoy flux data,Flux variability,Ocean and coupled reanalyses,Surface heat fluxes},
number = {3},
pages = {983--1008},
title = {{An assessment of air–sea heat fluxes from ocean and coupled reanalyses}},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{VanAsselt1996,
author = {van Asselt, Marjolein and Rotmans, Jan},
doi = {10.1016/0959-3780(96)00015-5},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {121--157},
title = {{Uncertainty in perspective}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0959378096000155},
volume = {6},
year = {1996}
}
@article{VandenHurk2016,
abstract = {Abstract. The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth system models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems). The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (“LMIP”, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (“LFMIP”, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).},
author = {van den Hurk, Bart and Kim, Hyungjun and Krinner, Gerhard and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Derksen, Chris and Oki, Taikan and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Colin, Jeanne and Ducharne, Agn{\`{e}}s and Cheruy, Frederique and Viovy, Nicholas and Puma, Michael J. and Wada, Yoshihide and Li, Weiping and Jia, Binghao and Alessandri, Andrea and Lawrence, Dave M. and Weedon, Graham P. and Ellis, Richard and Hagemann, Stefan and Mao, Jiafu and Flanner, Mark G. and Zampieri, Matteo and Materia, Stefano and Law, Rachel M. and Sheffield, Justin},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {2809--2832},
title = {{LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: the Land Surface, Snow and Soil moisture Model Intercomparison Project – aims, setup and expected outcome}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/2809/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{VanderEnt2017,
abstract = {Abstract. This paper revisits the knowledge on the residence time of water in the atmosphere. Based on state-of-the-art data of the hydrological cycle we derive a global average residence time of 8.9 ± 0.4 days (uncertainty given as 1 standard deviation). We use two different atmospheric moisture tracking models (WAM-2layers and 3D-T) to obtain atmospheric residence time characteristics in time and space. The tracking models estimate the global average residence time to be around 8.5 days based on ERA-Interim data. We conclude that the statement of a recent study that the global average residence time of water in the atmosphere is 4–5 days, is not correct. We derive spatial maps of residence time, attributed to evaporation and precipitation, and age of atmospheric water, showing that there are different ways of looking at temporal characteristics of atmospheric water. Longer evaporation residence times often indicate larger distances towards areas of high precipitation. From our analysis we find that the residence time over the ocean is about 2 days less than over land. It can be seen that in winter, the age of atmospheric moisture tends to be much lower than in summer. In the Northern Hemisphere, due to the contrast in ocean-to-land temperature and associated evaporation rates, the age of atmospheric moisture increases following atmospheric moisture flow inland in winter, and decreases in summer. Looking at the probability density functions of atmospheric residence time for precipitation and evaporation, we find long-tailed distributions with the median around 5 days. Overall, our research confirms the 8–10-day traditional estimate for the global mean residence time of atmospheric water, and our research contributes to a more complete view of the characteristics of the turnover of water in the atmosphere in time and space.},
author = {van der Ent, Ruud J. and Tuinenburg, Obbe A.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-21-779-2017},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {779--790},
title = {{The residence time of water in the atmosphere revisited}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/779/2017/},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
@article{VanMarle2017a,
abstract = {Abstract. Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr−1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 {\%} of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.},
author = {van Marle, Margreet J. E. and Kloster, Silvia and Magi, Brian I. and Marlon, Jennifer R. and Daniau, Anne-Laure and Field, Robert D. and Arneth, Almut and Forrest, Matthew and Hantson, Stijn and Kehrwald, Natalie M. and Knorr, Wolfgang and Lasslop, Gitta and Li, Fang and Mangeon, St{\'{e}}phane and Yue, Chao and Kaiser, Johannes W. and van der Werf, Guido R.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3329--3357},
title = {{Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015)}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/10/3329/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{VanVuuren2011,
author = {van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Edmonds, Jae and Kainuma, Mikiko and Riahi, Keywan and Thomson, Allison and Hibbard, Kathy and Hurtt, George C. and Kram, Tom and Krey, Volker and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Masui, Toshihiko and Meinshausen, Malte and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Smith, Steven J. and Rose, Steven K.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {1-2},
pages = {5--31},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{The representative concentration pathways: an overview}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z},
volume = {109},
year = {2011}
}
@article{VanVuuren2008,
author = {van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Riahi, Keywan},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-008-9485-y},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {dec},
number = {3-4},
pages = {237--248},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Do recent emission trends imply higher emissions forever?}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-008-9485-y},
volume = {91},
year = {2008}
}
@article{VanVuuren2014,
author = {van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Kriegler, Elmar and O'Neill, Brian C. and Ebi, Kristie L. and Riahi, Keywan and Carter, Timothy R. and Edmonds, Jae and Hallegatte, Stephane and Kram, Tom and Mathur, Ritu and Winkler, Harald},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {373--386},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{VanVuuren2010,
author = {van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Edmonds, Jae and Smith, Steven J. and Calvin, Kate V. and Karas, Joseph and Kainuma, Mikiko and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Riahi, Keywan and van Ruijven, Bas J. and Swart, Rob and Thomson, Allison},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-010-9940-4},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {dec},
number = {3-4},
pages = {635--642},
title = {{What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-010-9940-4},
volume = {103},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Vanderkelen2020,
abstract = {Abstract Heat uptake is a key variable for understanding the Earth system response to greenhouse gas forcing. Despite the importance of this heat budget, heat uptake by inland waters has so far not been quantified. Here we use a unique combination of global-scale lake models, global hydrological models and Earth system models to quantify global heat uptake by natural lakes, reservoirs, and rivers. The total net heat uptake by inland waters amounts to 2.6 ± 3.2 ?1020 J over the period 1900?2020, corresponding to 3.6{\%} of the energy stored on land. The overall uptake is dominated by natural lakes (111.7{\%}), followed by reservoir warming (2.3{\%}). Rivers contribute negatively (-14{\%}) due to a decreasing water volume. The thermal energy of water stored in artificial reservoirs exceeds inland water heat uptake by a factor ?10.4. This first quantification underlines that the heat uptake by inland waters is relatively small, but non-negligible.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087867},
author = {Vanderkelen, I and van Lipzig, N P M and Lawrence, D M and Droppers, B and Golub, M and Gosling, S N and Janssen, A B G and Marc{\'{e}}, R and Schmied, H M{\"{u}}ller and Perroud, M and Pierson, D and Pokhrel, Y and Satoh, Y and Schewe, J and Seneviratne, S I and Stepanenko, V M and Tan, Z and Woolway, R I and Thiery, W},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL087867},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {heat uptake,inland waters,lakes,reservoirs,rivers},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {e2020GL087867},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Global Heat Uptake by Inland Waters}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087867},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Vanniere2014,
author = {Vanni{\`{e}}re, Beno{\^{i}}t and Guilyardi, Eric and Toniazzo, Thomas and Madec, Gurvan and Woolnough, Steve},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2051-6},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {oct},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2261--2282},
title = {{A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2051-6},
volume = {43},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Vaughan2014,
abstract = {Climate services involve the generation, provision, and contextualization of information and knowledge derived from climate researchfor decision making at all levels of society. These services are mainly targeted at informing adaptation to climate variability and change, widely recognized as an important challenge for sustainable development. This paper reviews the development of climate services, beginning with a historical overview, a short summary of improvements in climate information, and a description of the recent surge of interest in climate service development including, for example, the Global Framework for Climate Services, implemented by theWorld Meteorological Organization in October 2012. It also reviews institutional arrangements of selected emerging climate services across local, national, regional, and international scales. By synthesizing existing literature, the paper proposes four design elements of a climate services evaluation framework. These design elements include: problem identification and the decision-making context; the characteristics, tailoring, anddissemination of the climate information; the governance and structure of the service, including the process by which it is developed; and the socioeconomic value of the service. The design elements are intended to serve as a guide to organize future work regarding the evaluation of when and whether climate services are more or less successful. The paper concludes by identifying future research questions regarding the institutional arrangements that support climate services and nascent efforts to evaluate them.},
author = {Vaughan, Catherine and Dessai, Suraje},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.290},
isbn = {1757-7780 (Print)$\backslash$r1757-7780 (Linking)},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {5},
pages = {587--603},
pmid = {25798197},
title = {{Climate services for society: origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.290},
volume = {5},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Vautard2019,
abstract = {A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960–2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land–atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.},
author = {Vautard, Robert and Christidis, Nikolaos and Ciavarella, Andrew and Alvarez-Castro, Carmen and Bellprat, Omar and Christiansen, Bo and Colfescu, Ioana and Cowan, Tim and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco and Eden, Jonathan and Hauser, Mathias and Hegerl, Gabriele and Hempelmann, Nils and Klehmet, Katharina and Lott, Fraser and Nangini, Cathy and Orth, Ren{\'{e}} and Radanovics, Sabine and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Stott, Peter and Tett, Simon and Wilcox, Laura and Yiou, Pascal},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1-2},
pages = {1187--1210},
title = {{Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe}},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Verschuur2021,
abstract = {Climate-induced food production shocks, like droughts, can cause food shortages and price spikes, leading to food insecurity. In 2007, a synchronous crop failure in Lesotho and South Africa—Lesotho's sole trading partner—led to a period of severe food insecurity in Lesotho. Here, we use extreme event attribution to assess the role of climate change in exacerbating this drought, going on to evaluate sensitivity of synchronous crop failures to climate change and its implications for food security in Lesotho. Climate change was found to be a critical driver that led to the 2007 crisis in Lesotho, aggravating an ongoing decline in food production in the country. We show how a fragile agricultural system in combination with a large trade-dependency on a climatically connected trading partner can lead to a nonlinear response to climate change, which is essential information for building a climate-resilient food-supply system now and in the future.},
author = {Verschuur, Jasper and Li, Sihan and Wolski, Piotr and Otto, Friederike E. L.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-021-83375-x},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {3852},
title = {{Climate change as a driver of food insecurity in the 2007 Lesotho-South Africa drought}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83375-x},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Anonymous1901,
author = {Very, F.W. and Abbe, Cleveland},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(1901)29[268a:KAOAA]2.0.CO;2},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
number = {6},
pages = {268},
title = {{Knut Angstrom on Atmospheric Absorption}},
volume = {29},
year = {1901}
}
@article{Vicedo-Cabrera2018,
author = {Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M. and Sera, Francesco and Guo, Yuming and Chung, Yeonseung and Arbuthnott, Katherine and Tong, Shilu and Tobias, Aurelio and Lavigne, Eric and {de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho}, Micheline and {Hilario Nascimento Saldiva}, Paulo and Goodman, Patrick G. and Zeka, Ariana and Hashizume, Masahiro and Honda, Yasushi and Kim, Ho and Ragettli, Martina S. and R{\"{o}}{\"{o}}sli, Martin and Zanobetti, Antonella and Schwartz, Joel and Armstrong, Ben and Gasparrini, Antonio},
doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006},
issn = {01604120},
journal = {Environment International},
month = {feb},
pages = {239--246},
title = {{A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0160412017310346},
volume = {111},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vinogradova2019,
abstract = {Advances in L-band microwave satellite radiometry in the past decade, pioneered by ESA's SMOS and NASA's Aquarius and SMAP missions, have demonstrated an unprecedented capability to observe global sea surface salinity (SSS) from space. Measurements from these missions are the only means to probe the very-near surface salinity (top cm), providing a unique monitoring capability for the interfacial exchanges of water between the atmosphere and the upper-ocean, and delivering a wealth of information on various salinity processes in the ocean, linkages with the climate and water cycle, including land-sea connections, and providing constraints for ocean prediction models. The satellite SSS data are complimentary to the existing in situ systems such as Argo that provide accurate depiction of large-scale salinity variability in the open ocean but under-sample mesoscale variability, coastal oceans and marginal seas, and energetic regions such as boundary currents and fronts. In particular, salinity remote sensing has proven valuable to systematically monitor the open oceans as well as coastal regions up to approximately 40 km from the coasts. This is critical to addressing societally relevant topics, such as land-sea linkages, coastal-open ocean exchanges, research in the carbon cycle, near-surface mixing, and air-sea exchange of gas and mass. In this paper, we provide a community perspective on the major achievements of satellite SSS for the aforementioned topics, the unique capability of satellite salinity observing system and its complementarity with other platforms, uncertainty characteristics of satellite SSS, and measurement versus sampling errors in relation to in situ salinity measurements. We also discuss the need for technological innovations to improve the accuracy, resolution, and coverage of satellite SSS, and the way forward to both continue and enhance salinity remote sensing as part of the integrated Earth Observing System in order to address societal needs.},
author = {Vinogradova, Nadya and Lee, Tong and Boutin, Jacqueline and Drushka, Kyla and Fournier, Severine and Sabia, Roberto and Stammer, Detlef and Bayler, Eric and Reul, Nicolas and Gordon, Arnold and Melnichenko, Oleg and Li, Laifang and Hackert, Eric and Martin, Matthew and Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas and Hasson, Audrey and Brown, Shannon and Misra, Sidharth and Lindstrom, Eric},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00243},
isbn = {2296-7745},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
month = {may},
pages = {243},
title = {{Satellite Salinity Observing System: Recent Discoveries and the Way Forward}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00243},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Vizcaino2015,
author = {Vizcaino, Miren and Mikolajewicz, Uwe and Ziemen, Florian and Rodehacke, Christian B. and Greve, Ralf and van den Broeke, Michiel R.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL061142},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {3927--3935},
title = {{Coupled simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet and climate change up to A.D. 2300}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL061142},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Vogel2019,
author = {Vogel, M. M. and Zscheischler, J. and Wartenburger, R. and Dee, D. and Seneviratne, S. I.},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001189},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {692--703},
title = {{Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019EF001189},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Vonschuckmann2019,
author = {von Schuckmann, Karina and Traon, Pierre-Yves Le and (Chair), Neville Smith and Pascual, Ananda and Djavidnia, Samuel and Gattuso, Jean-Pierre and Gr{\'{e}}goire, Marilaure and Nolan, Glenn and Aaboe, Signe and Aguiar, Eva and Fanjul, Enrique {\'{A}}lvarez and Alvera-Azc{\'{a}}rate, Aida and Aouf, Lotfi and Barciela, Rosa and Behrens, Arno and Rivas, Maria Belmonte and Ismail, Sana Ben and Bentamy, Abderrahim and Borgini, Mireno and Brando, Vittorio E and Bensoussan, Nathaniel and Blauw, Anouk and Bry{\`{e}}re, Philippe and Nardelli, Bruno Buongiorno and Caballero, Ainhoa and Yumruktepe, Veli {\c{C}}ağlar and Cebrian, Emma and Chiggiato, Jacopo and Clementi, Emanuela and Corgnati, Lorenzo and de Alfonso, Marta and {de Pascual Collar}, {\'{A}}lvaro and Deshayes, Julie and Lorenzo, Emanuele Di and Dominici, Jean-Marie and Dupouy, C{\'{e}}cile and Dr{\'{e}}villon, Marie and Echevin, Vincent and Eleveld, Marieke and Enserink, Lisette and Sotillo, Marcos Garc{\'{i}}a and Garnesson, Philippe and Garrabou, Joaquim and Garric, Gilles and Gasparin, Florent and Gayer, Gerhard and Gohin, Francis and Grandi, Alessandro and Griffa, Annalisa and Gourrion, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Hendricks, Stefan and Heuz{\'{e}}, C{\'{e}}line and Holland, Elisabeth and Iovino, Doroteaciro and Juza, M{\'{e}}lanie and Kersting, Diego Kurt and Kipson, Silvija and Kizilkaya, Zafer and Korres, Gerasimos and K{\~{o}}uts, Mariliis and Lagemaa, Priidik and Lavergne, Thomas and Lavigne, Heloise and Ledoux, Jean-Baptiste and Legeais, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Lehodey, Patrick and Linares, Cristina and Liu, Ye and Mader, Julien and Maljutenko, Ilja and Mangin, Antoine and Manso-Narvarte, Ivan and Mantovani, Carlo and Markager, Stiig and Mason, Evan and Mignot, Alexandre and Menna, Milena and Monier, Maeva and Mourre, Baptiste and M{\"{u}}ller, Malte and Nielsen, Jacob Woge and Notarstefano, Giulio and Oca{\~{n}}a, Oscar and Pascual, Ananda and Patti, Bernardo and Payne, Mark R and Peirache, Marion and Pardo, Silvia and G{\'{o}}mez, Bego{\~{n}}a P{\'{e}}rez and Pisano, Andrea and Perruche, Coralie and Peterson, K Andrew and Pujol, Marie-Isabelle and Raudsepp, Urmas and Ravdas, Michalis and Raj, Roshin P and Renshaw, Richard and Reyes, Emma and Ricker, Robert and Rubio, Anna and Sammartino, Michela and Santoleri, Rosalia and Sathyendranath, Shubha and Schroeder, Katrin and She, Jun and Sparnocchia, Stefania and Staneva, Joanna and Stoffelen, Ad and Szekely, Tanguy and Tilstone, Gavin H and Tinker, Jonathan and Tintor{\'{e}}, Joaqu{\'{i}}n and Tranchant, Beno{\^{i}}t and Uiboupin, Rivo and der Zande, Dimitry Van and von Schuckmann, Karina and Wood, Richard and Nielsen, Jacob Woge and Zabala, Mikel and Zacharioudaki, Anna and Zuberer, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Zuo, Hao},
doi = {10.1080/1755876X.2019.1633075},
journal = {Journal of Operational Oceanography},
number = {sup1},
pages = {S1--S123},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 3}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2019.1633075},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{essd-12-2013-2020,
author = {von Schuckmann, K and Cheng, L and Palmer, M D and Hansen, J and Tassone, C and Aich, V and Adusumilli, S and Beltrami, H and Boyer, T and Cuesta-Valero, F J and Desbruy{\`{e}}res, D and Domingues, C and Garc$\backslash$'$\backslash$ia-Garc$\backslash$'$\backslash$ia, A and Gentine, P and Gilson, J and Gorfer, M and Haimberger, L and Ishii, M and Johnson, G C and Killick, R and King, B A and Kirchengast, G and Kolodziejczyk, N and Lyman, J and Marzeion, B and Mayer, M and Monier, M and Monselesan, D P and Purkey, S and Roemmich, D and Schweiger, A and Seneviratne, S I and Shepherd, A and Slater, D A and Steiner, A K and Straneo, F and Timmermans, M.-L. and Wijffels, S E},
doi = {10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
number = {3},
pages = {2013--2041},
title = {{Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?}},
url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2013/2020/},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wagman2018,
abstract = {A calibrated single-model ensemble (SME) derived from the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1, is used to test two hypothesized emergent constraints on cloud feedback and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The Fasullo and Trenberth relative humidity (RH) metric and the Sherwood et al. lower-tropospheric mixing (LTMI) metric are computed for the present-day climate of the SME, and the relationships between the metrics, ECS, and cloud and other climate feedbacks are examined. The tropical convergence zone relative humidity (RHM) and the parameterized lower-tropospheric mixing (LTMIS) are positively correlated to ECS, and each is associated with a different spatial pattern of tropical shortwave cloud feedback in the SME. However, neither of those metrics is linked to the type of cloud response hypothesized by its authors. The resolved lower-tropospheric mixing (LTMID) is positively correlated to ECS for a subset of the SME having LTMID over a threshold value. LTMI and the RH for the dry, descending branch of the Hadley cell (RHD) narrow and shift upward the posterior estimates of ECS in the SME, but the SME bias in RHD and concerns over poorly understood physical mechanisms suggest the narrowing could be spurious for both constraints. While calibrated SME results may not generalize to multimodel ensembles, they can enhance the process understanding of emergent constraints and serve as out-of-sample tests of robustness.},
author = {Wagman, Benjamin M and Jackson, Charles S},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0682.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {18},
pages = {7515--7532},
title = {{A Test of Emergent Constraints on Cloud Feedback and Climate Sensitivity Using a Calibrated Single-Model Ensemble}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0682.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{wahl2017,
address = {Stuttgart, Germany},
author = {Wahl, Sabrina and Bollmeyer, Christoph and Crewell, Susanne and Figura, Clarissa and Friederichs, Petra and Hense, Andreas and Keller, Jan D and Ohlwein, Christian},
doi = {10.1127/metz/2017/0824},
journal = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
number = {4},
pages = {345--361},
publisher = {Schweizerbart Science Publishers},
title = {{A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0824},
volume = {26},
year = {2017}
}
@article{MembersWAISDivideProject2015,
author = {{WAIS Divide Project Members} and Buizert, Christo and Adrian, Betty and Ahn, Jinho and Albert, Mary and Alley, Richard B. and Baggenstos, Daniel and Bauska, Thomas K. and Bay, Ryan C. and Bencivengo, Brian B. and Bentley, Charles R. and Brook, Edward J. and Chellman, Nathan J. and Clow, Gary D. and Cole-Dai, Jihong and Conway, Howard and Cravens, Eric and Cuffey, Kurt M. and Dunbar, Nelia W. and Edwards, Jon S. and Fegyveresi, John M. and Ferris, Dave G. and Fitzpatrick, Joan J. and Fudge, T. J. and Gibson, Chris J. and Gkinis, Vasileios and Goetz, Joshua J. and Gregory, Stephanie and Hargreaves, Geoffrey M. and Iverson, Nels and Johnson, Jay A. and Jones, Tyler R. and Kalk, Michael L. and Kippenhan, Matthew J. and Koffman, Bess G. and Kreutz, Karl and Kuhl, Tanner W. and Lebar, Donald A. and Lee, James E. and Marcott, Shaun A. and Markle, Bradley R. and Maselli, Olivia J. and McConnell, Joseph R. and McGwire, Kenneth C. and Mitchell, Logan E. and Mortensen, Nicolai B. and Neff, Peter D. and Nishiizumi, Kunihiko and Nunn, Richard M. and Orsi, Anais J. and Pasteris, Daniel R. and Pedro, Joel B. and Pettit, Erin C. and {Buford Price}, P. and Priscu, John C. and Rhodes, Rachael H. and Rosen, Julia L. and Schauer, Andrew J. and Schoenemann, Spruce W. and Sendelbach, Paul J. and Severinghaus, Jeffrey P. and Shturmakov, Alexander J. and Sigl, Michael and Slawny, Kristina R. and Souney, Joseph M. and Sowers, Todd A. and Spencer, Matthew K. and Steig, Eric J. and Taylor, Kendrick C. and Twickler, Mark S. and Vaughn, Bruce H. and Voigt, Donald E. and Waddington, Edwin D. and Welten, Kees C. and Wendricks, Anthony W. and White, James W. C. and Winstrup, Mai and Wong, Gifford J. and Woodruff, Thomas E.},
doi = {10.1038/nature14401},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {apr},
number = {7549},
pages = {661--665},
title = {{Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14401},
volume = {520},
year = {2015}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1931-0846.2016.12195.x,
abstract = {Abstract Arctic sea ice data from a variety of historical sources have been synthesized into a database extending back to 1850 with monthly time-resolution. The synthesis procedure includes interpolation to a uniform grid and an analog-based estimation of ice concentrations in areas of no data. The consolidated database shows that there is no precedent as far back as 1850 for the 21st century's minimum ice extent of sea ice on the pan-Arctic scale. A regional-scale exception to this statement is the Bering Sea. The rate of retreat since the 1990s is also unprecedented and especially large in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Decadal and multidecadal variations have occurred in some regions, but their magnitudes are smaller than that of the recent ice loss. Interannual variability is prominent in all regions and will pose a challenge to sea ice prediction efforts.},
author = {Walsh, John E and Fetterer, Florence and {Scott Stewart}, J and Chapman, William L},
doi = {10.1111/j.1931-0846.2016.12195.x},
journal = {Geographical Review},
keywords = {Arctic,climate change,ice extent,sea ice},
number = {1},
pages = {89--107},
title = {{A database for depicting Arctic sea ice variations back to 1850}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1931-0846.2016.12195.x},
volume = {107},
year = {2017}
}
@article{gmd-7-663-2014,
author = {Wang, Q and Danilov, S and Sidorenko, D and Timmermann, R and Wekerle, C and Wang, X and Jung, T and Schr{\"{o}}ter, J},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-7-663-2014},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {2},
pages = {663--693},
title = {{The Finite Element Sea Ice-Ocean Model (FESOM) v.1.4: formulation of an ocean general circulation model}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/7/663/2014/},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Wang2001,
abstract = {Oxygen isotope records of five stalagmites from Hulu Cave near Nanjing bear a remarkable resemblance to oxygen isotope records from Greenland ice cores, suggesting that East Asian Monsoon intensity changed in concert with Greenland temperature between 11,000 and 75,000 years before the present (yr. B.P.). Between 11,000 and 30,000 yr. B.P., the timing of changes in the monsoon, as established with Th-230 dates, generally agrees with the timing of temperature changes from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) core, which supports GISP2's chronology in this interval. Our record links North Atlantic climate with the meridional transport of heat and moisture from the warmest part of the ocean where the summer East Asian Monsoon originates.},
author = {Wang, Y. J. and Cheng, H. and Edwards, R. L. and An, Z. S. and Wu, J. Y. and Shen, C. C. and Dorale, J. A.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1064618},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {00368075},
journal = {Science},
number = {5550},
pages = {2345--2348},
pmid = {11743199},
title = {{A High-Resolution Absolute-Dated Late Pleistocene Monsoon Record from Hulu Cave, China}},
volume = {294},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Wang1976,
author = {Wang, W. C. and Yung, Y. L. and Lacis, A. A. and Mo, T. and Hansen, J. E.},
doi = {10.1126/science.194.4266.685},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {nov},
number = {4266},
pages = {685--690},
title = {{Greenhouse Effects due to Man-Made Perturbations of Trace Gases}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.194.4266.685},
volume = {194},
year = {1976}
}
@article{AnInitializedAttributionMethodforExtremeEventsonSubseasonaltoSeasonalTimeScales,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Wang, Guomin and Hope, Pandora and Lim, Eun-Pa and Hendon, Harry H and Arblaster, Julie M},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1021.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {4},
pages = {1453--1465},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{An Initialized Attribution Method for Extreme Events on Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scales}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/4/JCLI-D-19-1021.1.xml},
volume = {34},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Warszawski2014,
abstract = {The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up.},
author = {Warszawski, Lila and Frieler, Katja and Huber, Veronika and Piontek, Franziska and Serdeczny, Olivia and Schewe, Jacob},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1312330110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {climate data,multi-sector},
month = {mar},
number = {9},
pages = {3228--3232},
pmid = {24344316},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1312330110},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Wartenburger2017,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} This article extends a previous study Seneviratne et al. (2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global mean temperature targets, such as the 2 and 1.5° limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Wartenburger, Richard and Hirschi, Martin and Donat, Markus G. and Greve, Peter and Pitman, Andy J. and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-3609-2017},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3609--3634},
title = {{Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/3609/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Watson2015,
abstract = {This study identifies and corrects instrumental drift for satellite altimeter missions, which affects estimates of the rates of sea-level rise. Corrected data show an acceleration in the rate of rise, counter to previous estimates and in line with projections.},
author = {Watson, Christopher S and White, Neil J and Church, John A and King, Matt A and Burgette, Reed J and Legresy, Benoit},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2635},
issn = {1758-6798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {6},
pages = {565--568},
title = {{Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2635},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{acp-19-11765-2019,
author = {Watson-Parris, D and Schutgens, N and Reddington, C and Pringle, K J and Liu, D and Allan, J D and Coe, H and Carslaw, K S and Stier, P},
doi = {10.5194/acp-19-11765-2019},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {18},
pages = {11765--11790},
title = {{In situ constraints on the vertical distribution of global aerosol}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/11765/2019/},
volume = {19},
year = {2019}
}
@article{essd-10-1551-2018,
author = {{WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group}},
doi = {10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
number = {3},
pages = {1551--1590},
title = {{Global sea-level budget 1993–present}},
url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/10/1551/2018/},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@book{Weart2008,
address = {Cambridge, MA, USA},
author = {Weart, Spencer R},
edition = {2nd},
isbn = {9780674031890},
pages = {240},
publisher = {Harvard University Press},
title = {{The Discovery of Global Warming: Revised and Expanded Edition}},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Webb2017GMD,
abstract = {Abstract. The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud–climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions How does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO2 forcing and sea surface warming? CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations? What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models? Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds? How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?},
author = {Webb, Mark J and Andrews, Timothy and Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro and Bony, Sandrine and Bretherton, Christopher S and Chadwick, Robin and Chepfer, H{\'{e}}l{\`{e}}ne and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Good, Peter and Kay, Jennifer E and Klein, Stephen A and Marchand, Roger and Medeiros, Brian and Siebesma, A Pier and Skinner, Christopher B and Stevens, Bjorn and Tselioudis, George and Tsushima, Yoko and Watanabe, Masahiro},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-359-2017},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {359--384},
title = {{The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/359/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Weedon2014,
abstract = {The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set has been generated using the same methodology as the widely used WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) by making use of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We discuss the specifics of how changes in the reanalysis and processing have led to improvement over the WFD. We attribute improvements in precipitation and wind speed to the latest reanalysis basis data and improved downward shortwave fluxes to the changes in the aerosol corrections. Covering 1979-2012, the WFDEI will allow more thorough comparisons of hydrological and Earth System model outputs with hydrologically and phenologically relevant satellite products than using the WFD.},
author = {Weedon, Graham P. and Balsamo, Gianpaolo and Bellouin, Nicolas and Gomes, Sandra and Best, Martin J. and Viterbo, Pedro},
doi = {10.1002/2014WR015638},
issn = {19447973},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {Covers 1979-2012,Global three hourly meteorological forcing data at,Improvements compared to the WATCH forcing data},
number = {9},
pages = {7505--7514},
title = {{The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data}},
volume = {50},
year = {2014}
}
@incollection{Wehner2018a,
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Wehner, Michael F. and Zarzycki, Colin and Patricola, Christina},
booktitle = {Hurricane Risk},
chapter = {12},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_12},
editor = {Collins, Jennifer M. and Walsh, Kevin},
isbn = {978-3-030-02402-4},
pages = {235--260},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Estimating the human influence on tropical cyclone intensity as the climate changes}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Weijer2019,
author = {Weijer, W. and Cheng, W. and Drijfhout, S. S. and Fedorov, A. V. and Hu, A. and Jackson, L. C. and Liu, W. and McDonagh, E. L. and Mecking, J. V. and Zhang, J.},
doi = {10.1029/2019JC015083},
issn = {2169-9275},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {5336--5375},
title = {{Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JC015083},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Weitzman2011,
author = {Weitzman, M. L.},
doi = {10.1093/reep/rer006},
issn = {1750-6816},
journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {275--292},
title = {{Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/reep/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/reep/rer006},
volume = {5},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Wenzel2016,
author = {Wenzel, Sabrina and Eyring, Veronika and Gerber, Edwin P. and Karpechko, Alexey Yu.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0412.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {673--687},
title = {{Constraining Future Summer Austral Jet Stream Positions in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0412.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wigley2009,
author = {Wigley, T. M. L. and Clarke, L. E. and Edmonds, J. A. and Jacoby, H. D. and Paltsev, S. and Pitcher, H. and Reilly, J. M. and Richels, R. and Sarofim, M. C. and Smith, S. J.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-009-9585-3},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {1-2},
pages = {85--121},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Uncertainties in climate stabilization}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-009-9585-3},
volume = {97},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Wigley1996,
abstract = {THE ultimate goal of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to achieve ''stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations...at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference,vith the climate system''. With the concentration targets yet to be determined, Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change developed a set of illustrative pathways for stabilizing the atmospheric CO2 concentration at 350, 450, 550, 650 and 750 p.p.m.v. over the next few hundred years(1,2). But no attempt was made to determine whether the implied emissions might constitute a realistic transition away from the current heavy dependence on fossil fuels. Here me devise new stabilization profiles that explicitly (albeit qualitatively) incorporate considerations of the global economic system, estimate the corresponding anthropogenic emissions requirements, and assess the significance of the profiles in terms of global-mean temperature and sea level changes. Our findings raise a number of important issues for those engaged in climate-change policy making, particularly with regard to the optimal timing of mitigation measures.},
author = {Wigley, T. M.L. and Richels, R. and Edmonds, J. A.},
doi = {10.1038/379240a0},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {00280836},
journal = {Nature},
number = {6562},
pages = {240--243},
title = {{Economic and environmental choices in the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations}},
volume = {379},
year = {1996}
}
@article{Wigley1981,
abstract = {Although it is widely believed that increasing atmospheric CO2 levels will cause noticeable global warming, the effects are not yet detectable, possibly because of the 'noise' of natural climatic variability. An examination of the spatial and seasonal distribution of signal-to-noise ratio shows that the highest values occur in summer and annual mean surface temperatures averaged over the Northern Hemisphere or over mid-latitudes. The spatial and seasonal characteristics of the early twentieth century warming were similar to those expected from increasing CO2 based on an equilibrium response model. This similarity may hinder the early detection of CO2 effects on climate. {\textcopyright} 1981 Nature Publishing Group.},
author = {Wigley, T. M. L. and Jones, P. D.},
doi = {10.1038/292205a0},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jul},
number = {5820},
pages = {205--208},
title = {{Detecting CO2-induced climatic change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/292205a0},
volume = {292},
year = {1981}
}
@article{WilbyRobertL.;Dessai2010,
abstract = {Remote-sensing measurements of a hole-punch cloud or fall-streak hole are presented. The cloud was observed with a vertically pointing infrared ceilometer, Doppler lidar, sky camera and a polarimetric radar inclined at 45 degrees. The Doppler lidar and polarimetric radar observations show that the aircraft-induced fall streak was composed primarily of oriented thick plate crystals, and the vertical Doppler velocities suggest that vertical mixing may have been triggered by the large flux of ice into the dry air at the base of the virga.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {0907.4302},
author = {Wilby, Robert L. and Dessai, Suraje},
doi = {10.1002/wea.543},
eprint = {0907.4302},
isbn = {00431656$\backslash$n14778696},
issn = {00431656},
journal = {Weather},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {180--185},
title = {{Robust adaptation to climate change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wea.543},
volume = {65},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Wilcox2020,
author = {Wilcox, Laura J. and Liu, Zhen and Samset, Bj{\o}rn H. and Hawkins, Ed and Lund, Marianne T. and Nordling, Kalle and Undorf, Sabine and Bollasina, Massimo and Ekman, Annica M. L. and Krishnan, Srinath and Merikanto, Joonas and Turner, Andrew G.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {11955--11977},
title = {{Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/11955/2020/},
volume = {20},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wilkinson2016,
author = {Wilkinson, Mark D. and Dumontier, Michel and Aalbersberg, IJsbrand Jan and Appleton, Gabrielle and Axton, Myles and Baak, Arie and Blomberg, Niklas and Boiten, Jan-Willem and {da Silva Santos}, Luiz Bonino and Bourne, Philip E. and Bouwman, Jildau and Brookes, Anthony J. and Clark, Tim and Crosas, Merc{\`{e}} and Dillo, Ingrid and Dumon, Olivier and Edmunds, Scott and Evelo, Chris T. and Finkers, Richard and Gonzalez-Beltran, Alejandra and Gray, Alasdair J.G. and Groth, Paul and Goble, Carole and Grethe, Jeffrey S. and Heringa, Jaap and {'t Hoen}, Peter A.C and Hooft, Rob and Kuhn, Tobias and Kok, Ruben and Kok, Joost and Lusher, Scott J. and Martone, Maryann E. and Mons, Albert and Packer, Abel L. and Persson, Bengt and Rocca-Serra, Philippe and Roos, Marco and van Schaik, Rene and Sansone, Susanna-Assunta and Schultes, Erik and Sengstag, Thierry and Slater, Ted and Strawn, George and Swertz, Morris A. and Thompson, Mark and van der Lei, Johan and van Mulligen, Erik and Velterop, Jan and Waagmeester, Andra and Wittenburg, Peter and Wolstencroft, Katherine and Zhao, Jun and Mons, Barend},
doi = {10.1038/sdata.2016.18},
issn = {2052-4463},
journal = {Scientific Data},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {160018},
title = {{The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201618},
volume = {3},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Williams2015,
author = {Williams, Hywel T.P. and McMurray, James R. and Kurz, Tim and {Hugo Lambert}, F.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.006},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {may},
pages = {126--138},
title = {{Network analysis reveals open forums and echo chambers in social media discussions of climate change}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378015000369},
volume = {32},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Williams2009,
author = {Williams, K. D. and Webb, M. J.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-008-0443-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {141--157},
title = {{A quantitative performance assessment of cloud regimes in climate models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-008-0443-1},
volume = {33},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Williams2013,
author = {Williams, K. D. and Bodas-Salcedo, A. and D{\'{e}}qu{\'{e}}, M. and Fermepin, S. and Medeiros, B. and Watanabe, M. and Jakob, C. and Klein, S. A. and Senior, C. A. and Williamson, D. L.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00429.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {3258--3274},
title = {{The Transpose-AMIP II Experiment and Its Application to the Understanding of Southern Ocean Cloud Biases in Climate Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00429.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Wilson2016,
abstract = {Large-scale millennial length Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstructions have been progressively improved over the last 20 years as new datasets have been developed. This paper, and its companion (Part II, Anchukaitis et al. in prep), details the latest tree-ring (TR) based NH land air temperature reconstruction from a temporal and spatial perspective. This work is the first product of a consortium called N-TREND (Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring Network Development) which brings together dendroclimatologists to identify a collective strategy for improving large-scale summer temperature reconstructions. The new reconstruction, N-TREND2015, utilises 54 records, a significant expansion compared with previous TR studies, and yields an improved reconstruction with stronger statistical calibration metrics. N-TREND2015 is relatively insensitive to the compositing method and spatial weighting used and validation metrics indicate that the new record portrays reasonable coherence with large scale summer temperatures and is robust at all time-scales from 918 to 2004 where at least 3 TR records exist from each major continental mass. N-TREND2015 indicates a longer and warmer medieval period (∼900–1170) than portrayed by previous TR NH reconstructions and by the CMIP5 model ensemble, but with better overall agreement between records for the last 600 years. Future dendroclimatic projects should focus on developing new long records from data-sparse regions such as North America and eastern Eurasia as well as ensuring the measurement of parameters related to latewood density to complement ring-width records which can improve local based calibration substantially.},
author = {Wilson, Rob and Anchukaitis, Kevin and Briffa, Keith R and B{\"{u}}ntgen, Ulf and Cook, Edward and D'Arrigo, Rosanne and Davi, Nicole and Esper, Jan and Frank, Dave and Gunnarson, Bj{\"{o}}rn and Hegerl, Gabi and Helama, Samuli and Klesse, Stefan and Krusic, Paul J and Linderholm, Hans W and Myglan, Vladimir and Osborn, Timothy J and Rydval, Milo{\v{s}} and Schneider, Lea and Schurer, Andrew and Wiles, Greg and Zhang, Peng and Zorita, Eduardo},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005},
issn = {0277-3791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
keywords = {CMIP5 models,Last millennium,Northern hemisphere,Reconstruction,Summer temperatures,Tree-rings},
pages = {1--18},
title = {{Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379115301888},
volume = {134},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Winkler2019,
abstract = {Abstract. Recent research on emergent constraints (ECs) has delivered promising results in narrowing down uncertainty in climate predictions. The method utilizes a measurable variable (predictor) from the recent historical past to obtain a constrained estimate of change in an entity of interest (predictand) at a potential future CO2 concentration (forcing) from multi-model projections. This procedure first critically depends on an accurate estimation of the predictor from observations and models and second on a robust relationship between inter-model variations in the predictor–predictand space. Here, we investigate issues related to these two themes in a carbon cycle case study using observed vegetation greening sensitivity to CO2 forcing as a predictor of change in photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) for a doubling of preindustrial CO2 concentration. Greening sensitivity is defined as changes in the annual maximum of green leaf area index (LAImax) per unit CO2 forcing realized through its radiative and fertilization effects. We first address the question of how to realistically characterize the predictor of a large area (e.g., greening sensitivity in the northern high-latitude region) from pixel-level data. This requires an investigation into uncertainties in the observational data source and an evaluation of the spatial and temporal variability in the predictor in both the data and model simulations. Second, the predictor–predictand relationship across the model ensemble depends on a strong coupling between the two variables, i.e., simultaneous changes in GPP and LAImax. This coupling depends in a complex manner on the magnitude (level), time rate of application (scenarios), and effects (radiative and/or fertilization) of CO2 forcing. We investigate how each one of these three aspects of forcing can affect the EC estimate of the predictand ($\Delta$GPP). Our results show that uncertainties in the EC method primarily originate from a lack of predictor comparability between observations and models, the observational data source, and temporal variability of the predictor. The disagreement between models on the mechanistic behavior of the system under intensifying forcing limits the EC applicability. The discussed limitations and sources of uncertainty in the EC method go beyond carbon cycle research and are generally applicable in Earth system sciences.},
author = {Winkler, Alexander J. and Myneni, Ranga B. and Brovkin, Victor},
doi = {10.5194/esd-10-501-2019},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {501--523},
title = {{Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/501/2019/},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@book{Winsberg2018,
abstract = {Book Description: There continues to be a vigorous public debate in our society about the status of climate science. Much of the skepticism voiced in this debate suffers from a lack of understanding of how the science works - in particular the complex interdisciplinary scientific modeling activities such as those which are at the heart of climate science. In this book Eric Winsberg shows clearly and accessibly how philosophy of science can contribute to our understanding of climate science, and how it can also shape climate policy debates and provide a starting point for research. Covering a wide range of topics including the nature of scientific data, modeling, and simulation, his book provides a detailed guide for those willing to look beyond ideological proclamations, and enriches our understanding of how climate science relates to important concepts such as chaos, unpredictability, and the extent of what we know.},
address = {Cambridge, UK},
author = {Winsberg, Eric},
booktitle = {Philosophy and Climate Science},
doi = {10.1017/9781108164290},
isbn = {1316646920},
month = {apr},
pages = {270},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Philosophy and Climate Science}},
url = {https://www.amazon.com/Philosophy-Climate-Science-Eric-Winsberg/dp/1316646920},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Winski2018,
abstract = {Abstract Warming in high-elevation regions has societally important impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While a variety of paleoproxy records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually resolved temperature records from high elevations. Here we present a 400-year temperature proxy record based on the melt layer stratigraphy of two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in Denali National Park in the central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a sixtyfold increase in water equivalent total annual melt between the preindustrial period (before 1850 Common Era) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on weather station data from the ice core drill site and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming rate of at least 1.92 ± 0.31°C per century during the last 100 years, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low-elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p {\textless} 0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby wave-like pattern that enhances high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027539},
author = {Winski, Dominic and Osterberg, Erich and Kreutz, Karl and Wake, Cameron and Ferris, David and Campbell, Seth and Baum, Mark and Bailey, Adriana and Birkel, Sean and Introne, Douglas and Handley, Mike},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027539},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Alaska,ice core,melt layer,paleoclimate,temperature},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3594--3611},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A 400-Year Ice Core Melt Layer Record of Summertime Warming in the Alaska Range}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027539},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{Brunet2015;WMO2015,
abstract = {This book collects together White Papers that have been written to describe the state of the science and to discuss the major challenges for making further advances. The authors of each chapter have attempted to draw together key aspects of the science that was presented at WWOSC-2014. The overarching theme of this book and of WWOSC-2014 is 'Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from minutes to months'. The book is structured with chapters that address topics regarding: Observations and Data Assimilation; Predictability and Processes; Numerical Prediction of the Earth System; Weather-related Hazards and Impacts. This book marks a point in time and the knowledge that has been accumulating on weather science. It aims to point the way to future developments.},
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
annote = {Times cited: 11},
author = {WMO},
doi = {https://library.wmo.int/?lvl=notice_display&id=17276#.YGwvo9V1DIU},
editor = {Brunet, Gilbert and Jones, Sarah and Ruti, Paolo M.},
isbn = {978-92-63-11156-2},
pages = {471},
publisher = {World Meteorological Organization (WMO)},
series = {WMO-No. 1156},
title = {{Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: From Minutes to Months}},
url = {https://library.wmo.int/?lvl=notice{\_}display{\&}id=17276{\#}.YGwvo9V1DIU},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{GCOS2016,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {WMO},
doi = {https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=19838#.YG277tV1DIV},
pages = {315},
publisher = {Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Secretariat, World Meteorological Organization (WMO)},
series = {GCOS No. 200},
title = {{The Global Observing System for Climate: Implementation Needs}},
url = {https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice{\_}display{\&}id=19838{\#}.YG277tV1DIV},
year = {2016}
}
@techreport{WMO2017a,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {WMO},
doi = {https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=4217},
isbn = {978-92-63-11202-6},
pages = {20},
publisher = {World Meteorological Organization (WMO)},
series = {WMO-No. 1202},
title = {{Challenges in the Transition from Conventional to Automatic Meteorological Observing Networks for Long-term Climate Records}},
url = {https://library.wmo.int/doc{\_}num.php?explnum{\_}id=4217},
year = {2017}
}
@techreport{WMO2020a,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {WMO},
doi = {https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10385},
editor = {Cullmann, Johannes and Dilley, Maxx and Egerton, Paul and Fowler, Jonathan and Grasso, Veronica F. and Honor{\'{e}}, Cyrille and L{\'{u}}cio, Filipe and Luterbacher, J{\"{u}}rg and Nullis, Clare and Power, Mary and Rea, Anthony and Repnik, Markus and Stander, Johan},
isbn = {978-92-63-11252-2},
pages = {47},
publisher = {World Meteorological Organization (WMO)},
series = {WMO-No. 1252},
title = {{State of Climate Services 2020: Risk Information and Early Warning Systems}},
url = {https://library.wmo.int/doc{\_}num.php?explnum{\_}id=10385},
year = {2020}
}
@techreport{WMO2020,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {WMO},
doi = {https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21761#.YG2_XdV1DIU},
keywords = { monitoring},
pages = {25},
publisher = {World Meteorological Organization (WMO)},
title = {{United In Science: A multi-organization high-level compilation of the latest climate science information}},
url = {https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice{\_}display{\&}id=21761{\#}.YG2{\_}XdV1DIU},
year = {2020}
}
@techreport{WorldClimateProgramme1986,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
annote = {QC851 .W6445 no. 661 QC981.8.C5},
author = {WMO/UNEP/ICSU},
doi = {https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=6321#.YG3AINV1DIU},
isbn = {9263106614},
pages = {78},
publisher = {World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). WMO},
series = {WMO-No.661},
title = {{Report of the International Conference on the Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts, Villach, Austria, 9–15 October 1985}},
url = {https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice{\_}display{\&}id=6321{\#}.YG3AINV1DIU},
year = {1986}
}
@article{WOODGATE2018124,
abstract = {Year-round in situ Bering Strait mooring data (1990–2015) document a long-term increase (∼0.01 Sv/yr) in the annual mean transport of Pacific waters into the Arctic. Between 2002 and 2015, all annual mean transports (except 2005 and 2012) are greater than the previously accepted climatology (∼0.8 Sv). The record-length maximum (2014: 1.2 ± 0.1 Sv) is 70{\%} higher than the record-length minimum (2001: 0.7 ± 0.1 Sv), corresponding to a reduction in the flushing time of the Chukchi Sea (to ∼4.5 months from ∼7.5 months). The transport increase results from stronger northward flows (not fewer southward flow events), yielding a 150{\%} increase in kinetic energy, presumably with impacts on bottom suspension, mixing, and erosion. Curiously, we find no significant trends in annual mean flow in the Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC), although note that these data are only available 2002–2015. Record-length trends in annually integrated heat and freshwater fluxes (primarily driven by volume flux trends) are large (0.06 ± 0.05 × 1020 J/yr; 30 ± 20 km3/yr; relative to −1.9 °C and 34.8 psu), with heat flux lows in 2001 and 2012 (∼3 × 1020 J) and highs in 2007 and 2015 (∼5.5 × 1020 J), and a freshwater range of ∼2300 km3 (2001) to ∼3500 km3 (2014). High-flow year 2015 (volume transport ∼1.1 Sv) has the highest annual mean temperature recorded, ∼0.7 °C, astoundingly warmer than the record-length mean of 0.0 ± 0.2 °C, while low-flow year 2012 (∼0.8 Sv) is also remarkably cold (∼−0.6 °C), likely due to anomalously weak northward flow in January–March, partly driven by anomalously strong southward winds in March. A seasonal decomposition of properties of the main flow shows significant freshening in winter (∼0.03 psu/yr, January–March) likely due to sea-ice changes, but no trend (or perhaps salinization) in the rest of the year. A seasonal warming trend in the strait proper in May and June (∼0.04 °C/yr) is reflected in a trend to earlier arrival (0.9 ± 0.8 days/yr) of waters warmer than 0 °C. Contrastingly, no significant trend is found in the time of cooling of the strait. The strait's seasonal increasing transport trends (∼0.02 Sv/yr) are largest from May–November, likely due to the large wind-driven variability masking the signal in other months. We show that Ekman set-up of waters along the coast in the strait can explain the strong correlation of the water velocity with along-strait winds (as opposed to across-strait winds). We highlight the strong seasonality of this relationship (r ∼ 0.8 in winter, but only ∼0.4 in summer), which reflects the weak influence of the (seasonally weak) winds in summer. By separating the flow into portions driven by (a) the local wind and (b) a far-field (Pacific-Arctic “pressure-head”) forcing, we find the increase in the Bering Strait throughflow is primarily due to a strong increase in the far-field forcing, not changes in the wind. We propose a higher annual mean transport for the strait for the 2000s, (1.0 ± 0.05 Sv) based on recent flow increases, and present estimated seasonal climatologies for properties and fluxes for the strait and for the ACC. Heat and freshwater seasonalities are strongly influenced by the ACC and stratification. Finally we conclude that year-round in situ mooring are still the only currently viable way of obtaining accurate quantifications of the properties of the Pacific input to the Arctic.},
author = {Woodgate, Rebecca A},
doi = {10.1016/j.pocean.2017.12.007},
issn = {0079-6611},
journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
keywords = {Annual variations,Arctic Ocean,Arctic freshwater,Arctic heat,Bering Sea,Bering Strait,Chukchi Sea,Pacific Ocean,Seasonal variations,Water currents,Water properties},
pages = {124--154},
title = {{Increases in the Pacific inflow to the Arctic from 1990 to 2015, and insights into seasonal trends and driving mechanisms from year-round Bering Strait mooring data}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661117302215},
volume = {160},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Woodruff1998,
abstract = {The Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) has been updated through a cooperative U.S. project since 1981, including vital international contributions. Quality controlled marine surface observations from ships have been supplemented in more recent years to include moored environmental buoys, drifting buoys, and near-surface measurements from oceanographic profiles. The data set now covers 142 years, 1854-1995. Monthly statistics of pseudo-fluxes and basic marine variables are calculated for each year using observed data falling within 2°latitude x 2°longitude boxes (1°x 1°summaries are also available for 1960-93). Enhancements in data and metadata planned by the year 2000 as part of COADS Release 2 ({\~{}}1820-1997) will concentrate on the basic observational records. In addition to new data sources, which will augment flux estimates through expanded coverage, planned enhancements include: a) usage of selected metadata from WMO pub. No. 47 (ship instrumentation history) to improve the observational records back to about 1973; b) improvements in the reliability of the wind speed ('estimated/measured') indicator; and c) bias adjustments of wind speed Beaufort estimates and anemometer measurements.},
author = {Woodruff, S.D. and Diaz, H.F. and Elms, J.D. and Worley, S.J.},
doi = {10.1016/S0079-1946(98)00064-0},
isbn = {0079-1946},
issn = {00791946},
journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth},
keywords = {Air-sea interaction,Data set,Oceanography,Sea surface,Surface Flux},
month = {jan},
number = {5-6},
pages = {517--526},
title = {{COADS Release 2 data and metadata enhancements for improvements of marine surface flux fields}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0079194698000640},
volume = {23},
year = {1998}
}
@article{Woodruff1987,
author = {Woodruff, Scott D and Slutz, Ralph J and Jenne, Roy L and Steurer, Peter M},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(1987)068<1239:ACOADS>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {1239--1250},
title = {{A Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477{\%}281987{\%}29068{\%}3C1239{\%}3AACOADS{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {68},
year = {1987}
}
@article{Woodruff2005,
author = {Woodruff, Scott D and Diaz, Henry F and Worley, Steven J and Reynolds, Richard W and Lubker, Sandra J},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-005-3456-3},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {1-2},
pages = {169--194},
title = {{Early Ship Observational Data and Icoads}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-005-3456-3},
volume = {73},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Wu2016,
author = {Wu, Chenglai and Lin, Zhaohui and He, Juanxiong and Zhang, Minghua and Liu, Xiaohong and Zhang, Renjian and Brown, Hunter},
doi = {10.1002/2016MS000723},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {1432--1452},
title = {{A process-oriented evaluation of dust emission parameterizations in CESM: Simulation of a typical severe dust storm in East Asia}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016MS000723},
volume = {8},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wu2018e,
abstract = {Increasing atmospheric CO2 from man-made climate change is reducing surface ocean pH. Due to limited instrumental measurements and historical pH records in the world's oceans, seawater pH variability at the decadal and centennial scale remains largely unknown and requires documentation. Here we present evidence of striking secular trends of decreasing pH since the late nineteenth century with pronounced interannual to decadal–interdecadal pH variability in the South Pacific Ocean from 1689 to 2011 CE. High-amplitude oceanic pH changes, likely related to atmospheric CO2 uptake and seawater dissolved inorganic carbon fluctuations, reveal a coupled relationship to sea surface temperature variations and highlight the marked influence of El Ni{\~{n}}o/Southern Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. We suggest changing surface winds strength and zonal advection processes as the main drivers responsible for regional pH variability up to 1881 CE, followed by the prominent role of anthropogenic CO2 in accelerating the process of ocean acidification.},
author = {Wu, Henry C and Dissard, Delphine and Douville, Eric and Blamart, Dominique and Bordier, Louise and Tribollet, Aline and {Le Cornec}, Florence and Pons-Branchu, Edwige and Dapoigny, Arnaud and Lazareth, Claire E},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04922-1},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {2543},
title = {{Surface ocean pH variations since 1689 CE and recent ocean acidification in the tropical South Pacific}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04922-1},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wu2013,
abstract = {The 1987 Montreal Protocol regulating emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozonedepleting substances (ODSs) was motivated primarily by the harm to human health and ecosystems arising from increased exposure to ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation associated with depletion of the ozone layer. It is now known that the Montreal Protocol has helped reduce radiative forcing of the climate system since CFCs are greenhouse gases (GHGs), and that ozone depletion (which is now on the verge of reversing) has been the dominant driver of atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere in the last half century. This paper demonstrates that the Montreal Protocol also significantly protects Earth's hydroclimate. Using the Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (CAM3), coupled to a simple mixed layer ocean, it is shown that in the "world avoided" (i.e., with CFC emissions not regulated), the subtropical dry zones would be substantially drier, and the middle- and high-latitude regions considerably wetter in the coming decade (2020- 29) than in a world without ozone depletion. Surprisingly, these changes are very similar, in both pattern and magnitude, to those caused by projected increases in GHG concentrations over the same period. It is further shown that, by dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms, both the stratospheric ozone depletion and increased CFCs contribute to these changes. The results herein imply that, as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, changes in the hydrological cycle in the coming decade will be only half as strong as what they otherwise would be. {\textcopyright} 2013 American Meteorological Society.},
author = {Wu, Yutian and Polvani, Lorenzo M. and Seager, Richard},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00675.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Greenhouse gases,Hydrology,Ozone},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4049--4068},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The Importance of the Montreal Protocol in Protecting Earth's Hydroclimate}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/12/jcli-d-12-00675.1.xml},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Yang2015,
author = {Yang, Xi and Tang, Jianwu and Mustard, John F. and Lee, Jung-Eun and Rossini, Micol and Joiner, Joanna and Munger, J. William and Kornfeld, Ari and Richardson, Andrew D.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL063201},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2977--2987},
title = {{Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence that correlates with canopy photosynthesis on diurnal and seasonal scales in a temperate deciduous forest}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL063201},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Yang2011,
abstract = {The equilibrium response timescale of global oceans is estimated in a fully coupled climate model. In general, the equilibrium timescale increases with depth, except in the polar region. The timescale is approximately 200 years for the ocean for depths above 1 km, and it increases to 1500 years at a depth of 3 km. A layer with a rapid timescale change, referred to as a temporacline, is located at a depth of 1.5-2 km, which is analogous to the permanent thermocline in the ocean. The equilibrium timescale varies with the sign of the change in radiative forcing. The ocean response to surface cooling could be twice as fast as the surface warming because of enhanced vertical mixing, convection and overturning circulation. However, this phenomenon only occurs below the Atlantic temporacline. For the Atlantic upper ocean, the timescale is longer in the cooling case because of the readjustment of the upper ocean to the enhanced Atlantic overturning circulation. In the Pacific, the timescale change in the warming and cooling cases is not as significant as in the Atlantic because of the lack of deep convection. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.},
author = {Yang, Haijun and Zhu, Jiang},
doi = {10.1029/2011GL048076},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {response timescale},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {L14711},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Equilibrium thermal response timescale of global oceans}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011GL048076},
volume = {38},
year = {2011}
}
@misc{Yeager2017,
abstract = {Purpose of Review: Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems. Recent Findings: The AMOC—or more precisely, the buoyancy-forced thermohaline circulation (THC) that encompasses both overturning and gyre circulations—appears to underpin decadal timescale prediction skill in the subpolar North Atlantic in retrospective forecasts. Skill in predicting more wide-ranging climate variations, including those over land, is more limited, but there are indications this could improve with more advanced models. Summary: Preliminary successes in the field of initialized Atlantic climate prediction confirm the climate relevance of low-frequency Atlantic Ocean dynamics and suggest that useful decadal climate prediction is a realizable goal.},
author = {Yeager, S. G. and Robson, J. I.},
booktitle = {Current Climate Change Reports},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-017-0064-z},
issn = {21986061},
keywords = {AMOC,Atlantic multi-decadal variability,Climate prediction,Decadal prediction,Subpolar gyre,Thermohaline circulation},
title = {{Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability}},
year = {2017}
}
@article{20092009-041,
author = {Yokota, T and Yoshida, Y and Eguchi, N and Ota, Y and Tanaka, T and Watanabe, H and Maksyutov, S},
doi = {10.2151/sola.2009-041},
journal = {SOLA},
pages = {160--163},
title = {{Global Concentrations of CO2 and CH4 Retrieved from GOSAT: First Preliminary Results}},
volume = {5},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Yoon2009,
abstract = {Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential {\~{}}23 times that of carbon dioxide. Here, we describe the modeling of a biotrickling filtration system composed of methane-consuming bacteria, i.e., methanotrophs, to assess the utility of these systems in removing methane from the atmosphere. Model results indicate that assuming the global average atmospheric concentration of methane, 1.7 ppmv, methane removal is ineffective using these methanotrophic biofilters as the methane concentration is too low to enable cell survival. If the concentration is increased to 500–6,000 ppmv, however, similar to that found above landfills and in concentrated animal feeding operations (factory farms), 4.98–35.7 tons of methane can be removed per biofilter per year assuming biotrickling filters of typical size (3.66 m in diameter and 11.5 m in height). Using reported ranges of capital, operational, and maintenance costs, the cost of the equivalent ton of CO2 removal using these systems is {\$}90–{\$}910 ({\$}2,070–{\$}20,900 per ton of methane), depending on the influent concentration of methane and if heating is required. The use of methanotrophic biofilters for controlling methane emissions is technically feasible and, provided that either the costs of biofilter construction and operation are reduced or the value of CO2 credits is increased, can also be economically attractive.},
author = {Yoon, Sukhwan and Carey, Jeffrey N and Semrau, Jeremy D},
doi = {10.1007/s00253-009-1977-9},
issn = {1432-0614},
journal = {Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology},
number = {5},
pages = {949--956},
title = {{Feasibility of atmospheric methane removal using methanotrophic biotrickling filters}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00253-009-1977-9},
volume = {83},
year = {2009}
}
@inproceedings{Yousefvand2020,
abstract = {The 5G band allocated in the 26 GHz spectrum referred to as 3GPP band n258, has generated a lot of anxiety and concern in the meteorological data forecasting community including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Unlike traditional spectrum coexistence problems, the issue here stems from the leakage of n258 band transmissions impacting the observations of passive sensors (e.g. AMSU-A) operating at 23.8 GHz on weather satellites used to detect the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn affects weather forecasting and predictions. In this paper, we study the impact of 5G leakage on the accuracy of data assimilation based weather prediction algorithms by using a first order propagation model to characterize the effect of the leakage signal on the brightness temperature (atmospheric radiance) and the induced noise temperature at the receiving antenna of the passive sensor (radiometer) on the weather observation satellite. We then characterize the resulting inaccuracies when using the Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation model (WRFDA) to predict temperature and rainfall. For example, the impact of 5G leakage of -20dBW to -15dBW on the well-known Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak data set, affects the meteorological forecasting up to 0.9 mm in precipitation and 1.3 °C in 2m-temperature. We outline future directions for both improved modeling of 5G leakage effects as well as mitigation using cross-layer antenna techniques coupled with resource allocation.},
author = {Yousefvand, M and Wu, C -T. M and Wang, R -Q. and Brodie, J and Mandayam, N},
booktitle = {2020 IEEE 3rd 5G World Forum (5GWF)},
doi = {10.1109/5GWF49715.2020.9221472},
isbn = {VO -},
keywords = {3GPP band,5G,5G mobile communication,Doppler radar,Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak data,atmospheric boundary layer,atmospheric movements,atmospheric pressure,atmospheric radiance,atmospheric techniques,brightness temperature,data assimilation,frequency 23.8 GHz,frequency 26.0 GHz,improved modeling,induced noise temperature,leakage,leakage signal,meteorological data forecasting community,meteorological forecasting,meteorological radar,mmWave,n258 band,n258 band transmissions,order propagation model,passive sensor,radiance,rain,rainfall,receiving antennas,remote sensing by radar,traditional spectrum coexistence problems,water vapor,weather forecasting,weather observation satellite,weather prediction,weather prediction algorithms,weather satellites},
pages = {291--296},
title = {{Modeling the Impact of 5G Leakage on Weather Prediction}},
year = {2020}
}
@article{yukimoto2019 doi 10.2151/jmsj.2019-051,
author = {Yukimoto, Seiji and Kawai, Hideaki and Koshiro, Tsuyoshi and Oshima, Naga and Yoshida, Kohei and Urakawa, Shogo and Tsujino, Hiroyuki and Deushi, Makoto and Tanaka, Taichu and Hosaka, Masahiro and Yabu, Shokichi and Yoshimura, Hiromasa and Shindo, Eiki and Mizuta, Ryo and Obata, Atsushi and Adachi, Yukimasa and Ishii, Masayoshi},
doi = {10.2151/jmsj.2019-051},
journal = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Series II},
number = {5},
pages = {931--965},
title = {{The Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 2.0, MRI-ESM2.0: Description and Basic Evaluation of the Physical Component}},
volume = {97},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zaehle2014,
abstract = {AbstractCoupled carbon cycle?climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), Earth system model ensemble simulate the effects of changes in anthropogenic fossil-fuel emissions and ensuing climatic changes on the global carbon (C) balance but largely ignore the consequences of widespread terrestrial nitrogen (N) limitation. Based on plausible ranges of terrestrial C:N stoichiometry, this study investigates whether the terrestrial C sequestration projections of nine CMIP5 models for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are consistent with estimates of N supply from increased biological fixation, atmospheric deposition, and reduced ecosystem N losses. Discrepancies between the timing and places of N demand and supply indicated increases in terrestrial N implicit to the projections of all nine CMIP5 models under all scenarios that are larger than the estimated N supply. Omitting N constraints leads to an overestimation of land C sequestration in these models between the years 1860 and 2100 by between 97 Pg C (69?252 Pg C; RCP 2.6) and 150 Pg C (57?323 Pg C; RCP 8.5), with a large spread across models. The CMIP5 models overestimated the average 2006?2100 fossil-fuel emissions required to keep atmospheric CO2 levels on the trajectories described in the RCP scenarios by between 0.6 Pg C yr?1 (0.4?2.2 Pg C yr?1; RCP 2.6) and 1.2 Pg C yr?1 (0.5?3.3 Pg C yr?1; RCP 8.5). If unabated, reduced land C sequestration would enhance CO2 accumulation in the ocean and atmosphere, increasing atmospheric CO2 burden by 26 ppm (16?88 ppm; RCP 2.6) to 61 ppm (29?147 ppm; RCP 8.5) by the year 2100.},
author = {Zaehle, S{\"{o}}nke and Jones, Chris D and Houlton, Benjamin and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Robertson, Eddy},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00776.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {dec},
number = {6},
pages = {2494--2511},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Nitrogen Availability Reduces CMIP5 Projections of Twenty-First-Century Land Carbon Uptake}},
volume = {28},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Zanchettin2016,
abstract = {Abstract. The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol data set for each experiment to minimize differences in the applied volcanic forcing. It defines a set of initial conditions to assess how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically forced responses of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input data sets to be used.},
author = {Zanchettin, Davide and Khodri, Myriam and Timmreck, Claudia and Toohey, Matthew and Schmidt, Anja and Gerber, Edwin P. and Hegerl, Gabriele and Robock, Alan and Pausata, Francesco S. R. and Ball, William T. and Bauer, Susanne E. and Bekki, Slimane and Dhomse, Sandip S. and LeGrande, Allegra N. and Mann, Graham W. and Marshall, Lauren and Mills, Michael and Marchand, Marion and Niemeier, Ulrike and Poulain, Virginie and Rozanov, Eugene and Rubino, Angelo and Stenke, Andrea and Tsigaridis, Kostas and Tummon, Fiona},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {2701--2719},
title = {{The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/2701/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zanchettin2017a,
abstract = {The expanding interest in decadal climate variability, predictability, and prediction highlights the importance of understanding the sources and mechanisms of decadal and interdecadal climate fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to provide a critical review of our current understanding of externally forced decadal climate variability. In particular, proposed mechanisms determining decadal climate responses to variations in solar activity, stratospheric volcanic aerosols, and natural as well as anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols are discussed, both separately and in a unified framework. The review suggests that the excitation of internal modes of interdecadal climate variability, particularly centered in the Pacific and North Atlantic sectors, remains a paradigm to characterize externally forced decadal climate variability and to interpret the associated dynamics. Significant recent advancements are the improved understanding of the critical dependency of volcanically forced decadal climate variability on the relative phase of ongoing internal variability and on additional external perturbations, and the recognition that associated uncertainty may represent a serious obstacle to identifying the climatic consequences even of very strong eruptions. Particularly relevant is also the recent development of hypotheses about potential mechanisms (reemergence and synchronization) underlying solar forced decadal climate variability. Finally, outstanding issues and, hence, major opportunities for progress regarding externally forced decadal climate variability are discussed. Uncertain characterization of forcing and climate histories, imperfect implementation of complex forcings in climate models, limited understanding of the internal component of interdecadal climate variability, and poor quality of its simulation are some of the enduring critical obstacles on which to progress. It is suggested that much further understanding can be gained through identification and investigation of relevant periods of forced decadal climate variability during the preindustrial past millennium. Another upcoming opportunity for progress is the analysis of focused experiments with coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models within the umbrella of the next phase of the coupled model intercomparison project.},
author = {Zanchettin, Davide},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Climate modes,Climate reconstructions,Coupled climate models,Decadal climate variability,Forced decadal variability,Solar cycle,Tropospheric aerosol,Volcanic aerosol,Volcanic forcing},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {150--162},
title = {{Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zanna2019,
abstract = {Most of the excess energy stored in the climate system due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has been taken up by the oceans, leading to thermal expansion and sea-level rise. The oceans thus have an important role in the Earth's energy imbalance. Observational constraints on future anthropogenic warming critically depend on accurate estimates of past ocean heat content (OHC) change. We present a reconstruction of OHC since 1871, with global coverage of the full ocean depth. Our estimates combine timeseries of observed sea surface temperatures with much longer historical coverage than those in the ocean interior together with a representation (a Green's function) of time-independent ocean transport processes. For 1955–2017, our estimates are comparable with direct estimates made by infilling the available 3D time-dependent ocean temperature observations. We find that the global ocean absorbed heat during this period at a rate of 0.30 ± 0.06 W/m 2 in the upper 2,000 m and 0.028 ± 0.026 W/m 2 below 2,000 m, with large decadal fluctuations. The total OHC change since 1871 is estimated at 436 ± 91 × 10 21 J, with an increase during 1921–1946 (145 ± 62 × 10 21 J) that is as large as during 1990–2015. By comparing with direct estimates, we also infer that, during 1955–2017, up to one-half of the Atlantic Ocean warming and thermosteric sea-level rise at low latitudes to midlatitudes emerged due to heat convergence from changes in ocean transport.},
author = {Zanna, Laure and Khatiwala, Samar and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Ison, Jonathan and Heimbach, Patrick},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1808838115},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Climate change,Earth's energy imbalance,Ocean heat content,Ocean processes,Sea-level rise},
month = {jan},
number = {4},
pages = {1126--1131},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport}},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zannoni2019,
abstract = {The interaction between the different components of the water cycle at ecosystem scale is of great interest in hydroecology. Stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in the water molecule can be used to study these processes quantitatively due to their different physical properties. This study aims at quantifying the contribution of local moisture sources to the isotopic signature of water vapor in the specific estuary system of a coastal lagoon. Here we present a framework of the isotopic composition of the atmospheric water cycle components (water vapor and precipitation) for the coastal lagoon of Venice (Italy) and we discuss the interaction between the atmospheric component and the surface component of the local water cycle, i.e. the atmospheric moisture and the lagoon water. The Venetian Lagoon is an enclosed basin with low freshwater influx, resulting in the presence of large horizontal gradients of the isotopic composition of surface water. This feature allows to determine the sensitivity of the isotopic signal in near surface atmospheric moisture under a range of humidity conditions. We observed that when the lower atmosphere is close to water vapor saturation pressure condition, the isotopic composition of water vapor at the ground appears to be in isotopic equilibrium with lagoon surface water in a range of approximately 6–26 km from the sampling point. On the other hand, under unsaturated conditions, we estimated that lagoon evaporation flux accounts on average for ∼27{\%} to the daily (06–18 Local Sidereal Time) total evapotranspiration surface flux. This is the first study that discusses the spatio-temporal variability of water vapor, precipitation and surface water isotopic composition for a coastal lagoon, thus including the major components of the local water cycle in an estuarine system with the isotope approach.},
author = {Zannoni, Daniele and Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian and Rampazzo, Giancarlo and Dreossi, Giuliano and Stenni, Barbara and Bergamasco, Andrea},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.033},
issn = {0022-1694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Evapotranspiration,Lagoon,Precipitation,Stable isotopes,Surface water,Water vapor},
pages = {630--644},
title = {{The atmospheric water cycle of a coastal lagoon: An isotope study of the interactions between water vapor, precipitation and surface waters}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169419302380},
volume = {572},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zappa2017,
abstract = {There is increasing interest in understanding the regional impacts of different global warming targets. However, several regional climate impacts depend on the atmospheric circulation, whose response to climate change remains substantially uncertain and not interpretable in a probabilistic sense in multimodel ensemble projections. To account for these uncertainties, a novel approach where regional climate change is analyzed as a function of carbon emissions conditional on plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation change is here presented and applied to the CMIP5 models' future projections. The different storylines are determined based on the response in three remote drivers of regional circulation: the tropical and polar amplification of global warming and changes in stratospheric vortex strength. As an illustration of this approach, it is shown that the severity of the projected wintertime Mediterranean precipitation decline and central European windiness increase strongly depends on the storyline of circulation change. For a given magnitude of global warming, the highest impact storyline for these aspects of European climate is found for a high tropical amplification and a strengthening of the vortex. The difference in the precipitation and wind responses between the storylines is substantial and equivalent to the contribution from several degrees of global warming. Improving the understanding of the remote driver responses is thus needed to better bound the projected regional impacts in the European sector. The value of these storylines to represent the uncertainty in regional climate projections and to inform the selection of CMIP5 models in regional climate impact studies is discussed.},
author = {Zappa, Giuseppe and Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0807.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Climate change,Climate models,Europe,Extratropics,Regression analysis},
month = {jun},
number = {16},
pages = {6561--6577},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0807.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zappa2020,
abstract = {Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: a rapid adjustment to radiative forcing, followed by a slower response to surface warming. However, additional timescales exist in the surface-warming response, tied to the time evolution of the sea-surface-temperature (SST) response. Here, we show that in climate model projections, the rapid adjustment and surface mean warming are insufficient to explain the time evolution of the hydro-climate response in three key Mediterranean-like areas—namely, California, Chile, and the Mediterranean. The time evolution of those responses critically depends on distinct shifts in the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the existence of distinct fast and slow SST warming patterns. As a result, Mediterranean and Chilean drying are in quasiequilibrium with GHG concentrations, meaning that the drying will not continue after GHG concentrations are stabilized, whereas California wetting will largely emerge only after GHG concentrations are stabilized. The rapid adjustment contributes to a reduction in precipitation, but has a limited impact on the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In these Mediterranean-like regions, future hydro-climate–related impacts will be substantially modulated by the time evolution of the pattern of SST warming that is realized in the real world.},
author = {Zappa, Giuseppe and Ceppi, Paulo and Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1911015117},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {9},
pages = {4539--4545},
title = {{Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1911015117},
volume = {117},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zaval2014,
author = {Zaval, Lisa and Keenan, Elizabeth A. and Johnson, Eric J. and Weber, Elke U.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2093},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {143--147},
title = {{How warm days increase belief in global warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2093},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Zeebe2016b,
abstract = {Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources reached a record high of ∼10 Pg C yr−1 in 2014. Geologic analogues from past transient climate changes could provide invaluable constraints on the response of the climate system to such perturbations, but only if the associated carbon release rates can be reliably reconstructed. The Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is known at present to have the highest carbon release rates of the past 66 million years, but robust estimates of the initial rate and onset duration are hindered by uncertainties in age models. Here we introduce a new method to extract rates of change from a sedimentary record based on the relative timing of climate and carbon cycle changes, without the need for an age model. We apply this method to stable carbon and oxygen isotope records from the New Jersey shelf using time-series analysis and carbon cycle–climate modelling. We calculate that the initial carbon release during the onset of the PETM occurred over at least 4,000 years. This constrains the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate to less than 1.1 Pg C yr−1. We conclude that, given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. We suggest that such a ‘no-analogue' state represents a fundamental challenge in constraining future climate projections. Also, future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.},
author = {Zeebe, Richard E and Ridgwell, Andy and Zachos, James C},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2681},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {4},
pages = {325--329},
title = {{Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2681},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@misc{Zeldin-ONeill2019,
author = {Zeldin-O'Neill, Sophie},
booktitle = {The Guardian},
doi = {https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/16/guardian-language-changes-climate-environment},
title = {{‘It's a crisis, not a change': the six Guardian language changes on climate matters}},
url = {https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/16/guardian-language-changes-climate-environment},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zelinka2020,
abstract = {Abstract Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO doubling, has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This (statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo. Both of these are tied to the physical representation of clouds which in CMIP6 models lead to weaker responses of extratropical low cloud cover and water content to unforced variations in surface temperature. Establishing the plausibility of these higher sensitivity models is imperative given their implied societal ramifications.},
annote = {e2019GL085782 10.1029/2019GL085782},
author = {Zelinka, Mark D and Myers, Timothy A and McCoy, Daniel T and Po-Chedley, Stephen and Caldwell, Peter M and Ceppi, Paulo and Klein, Stephen A and Taylor, Karl E},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL085782},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {1},
pages = {e2019GL085782},
title = {{Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085782},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zemp2015a,
abstract = {Observations show that glaciers around the world are in retreat and losing mass. Internationally coordinated for over a century, glacier monitoring activities provide an unprecedented dataset of glacier observations from ground, air and space. Glacier studies generally select specific parts of these datasets to obtain optimal assessments of the mass-balance data relating to the impact that glaciers exercise on global sea-level fluctuations or on regional runoff. In this study we provide an overview and analysis of the main observational datasets compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). The dataset on glacier front variations (∼42 000 since 1600) delivers clear evidence that centennial glacier retreat is a global phenomenon. Intermittent readvance periods at regional and decadal scale are normally restricted to a subsample of glaciers and have not come close to achieving the maximum positions of the Little Ice Age (or Holocene). Glaciological and geodetic observations (∼5200 since 1850) show that the rates of early 21st-century mass loss are without precedent on a global scale, at least for the time period observed and probably also for recorded history, as indicated also in reconstructions from written and illustrated documents. This strong imbalance implies that glaciers in many regions will very likely suffer further ice loss, even if climate remains stable.},
author = {Zemp, Michael and Frey, Holger and G{\"{a}}rtner-Roer, Isabelle and Nussbaumer, Samuel U. and Hoelzle, Martin and Paul, Frank and Haeberli, Wilfried and Denzinger, Florian and Ahlstr{\o}m, Andreas P. and Anderson, Brian and Bajracharya, Samjwal and Baroni, Carlo and Braun, Ludwig N. and C{\'{a}}ceres, Bol{\'{i}}var E. and Casassa, Gino and Cobos, Guillermo and D{\'{a}}vila, Luzmila R. and {Delgado Granados}, Hugo and Demuth, Michael N. and Espizua, Lydia and Fischer, Andrea and Fujita, Koji and Gadek, Bogdan and Ghazanfar, Ali and {Ove Hagen}, Jon and Holmlund, Per and Karimi, Neamat and Li, Zhongqin and Pelto, Mauri and Pitte, Pierre and Popovnin, Victor V. and Portocarrero, Cesar A. and Prinz, Rainer and Sangewar, Chandrashekhar V. and Severskiy, Igor and Sigurđsson, Oddur and Soruco, Alvaro and Usubaliev, Ryskul and Vincent, Christian},
doi = {10.3189/2015JoG15J017},
issn = {0022-1430},
journal = {Journal of Glaciology},
month = {jul},
number = {228},
pages = {745--762},
title = {{Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143000202554/type/journal{\_}article},
volume = {61},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Zemp2019a,
abstract = {Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets cover an area of approximately 706,000 square kilometres globally1, with an estimated total volume of 170,000 cubic kilometres, or 0.4 metres of potential sea-level-rise equivalent2. Retreating and thinning glaciers are icons of climate change3 and affect regional runoff4 as well as global sea level5,6. In past reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, estimates of changes in glacier mass were based on the multiplication of averaged or interpolated results from available observations of a few hundred glaciers by defined regional glacier areas7–10. For data-scarce regions, these results had to be complemented with estimates based on satellite altimetry and gravimetry11. These past approaches were challenged by the small number and heterogeneous spatiotemporal distribution of in situ measurement series and their often unknown ability to represent their respective mountain ranges, as well as by the spatial limitations of satellite altimetry (for which only point data are available) and gravimetry (with its coarse resolution). Here we use an extrapolation of glaciological and geodetic observations to show that glaciers contributed 27 ± 22 millimetres to global mean sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016. Regional specific-mass-change rates for 2006–2016 range from −0.1 metres to −1.2 metres of water equivalent per year, resulting in a global sea-level contribution of 335 ± 144 gigatonnes, or 0.92 ± 0.39 millimetres, per year. Although statistical uncertainty ranges overlap, our conclusions suggest that glacier mass loss may be larger than previously reported11. The present glacier mass loss is equivalent to the sea-level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet12, clearly exceeds the loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet13, and accounts for 25 to 30 per cent of the total observed sea-level rise14. Present mass-loss rates indicate that glaciers could almost disappear in some mountain ranges in this century, while heavily glacierized regions will continue to contribute to sea-level rise beyond 2100.},
author = {Zemp, M and Huss, M and Thibert, E and Eckert, N and McNabb, R and Huber, J and Barandun, M and Machguth, H and Nussbaumer, S U and G{\"{a}}rtner-Roer, I and Thomson, L and Paul, F and Maussion, F and Kutuzov, S and Cogley, J G},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7752},
pages = {382--386},
title = {{Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0},
volume = {568},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2018,
author = {Zhang, Yuying and Xie, Shaocheng and Klein, Stephen A. and Marchand, Roger and Kollias, Pavlos and Clothiaux, Eugene E. and Lin, Wuyin and Johnson, Karen and Swales, Dustin and Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro and Tang, Shuaiqi and Haynes, John M. and Collis, Scott and Jensen, Michael and Bharadwaj, Nitin and Hardin, Joseph and Isom, Bradley},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0258.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {21--26},
title = {{The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0258.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhang2007b,
author = {Zhang, Xuebin and Zwiers, Francis W. and Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Lambert, F. Hugo and Gillett, Nathan P. and Solomon, Susan and Stott, Peter A. and Nozawa, Toru},
doi = {10.1038/nature06025},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jul},
number = {7152},
pages = {461--465},
title = {{Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature06025},
volume = {448},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Zhao2018,
author = {Zhao, M. and Golaz, J.-C. and Held, I. M. and Guo, H. and Balaji, V. and Benson, R. and Chen, J.-H. and Chen, X. and Donner, L. J. and Dunne, J. P. and Dunne, K. and Durachta, J. and Fan, S.-M. and Freidenreich, S. M. and Garner, S. T. and Ginoux, P. and Harris, L. M. and Horowitz, L. W. and Krasting, J. P. and Langenhorst, A. R. and Liang, Z. and Lin, P. and Lin, S.-J. and Malyshev, S. L. and Mason, E. and Milly, P. C. D. and Ming, Y. and Naik, V. and Paulot, F. and Paynter, D. and Phillipps, P. and Radhakrishnan, A. and Ramaswamy, V. and Robinson, T. and Schwarzkopf, D. and Seman, C. J. and Shevliakova, E. and Shen, Z. and Shin, H. and Silvers, L. G. and Wilson, J. R. and Winton, M. and Wittenberg, A. T. and Wyman, B. and Xiang, B.},
doi = {10.1002/2017MS001208},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {691--734},
title = {{The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 1. Simulation Characteristics With Prescribed SSTs}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017MS001208},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhou2016,
abstract = {Abstract. The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.},
author = {Zhou, Tianjun and Turner, Andrew G. and Kinter, James L. and Wang, Bin and Qian, Yun and Chen, Xiaolong and Wu, Bo and Wang, Bin and Liu, Bo and Zou, Liwei and He, Bian},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3589-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {3589--3604},
title = {{GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3589/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zhou2018,
abstract = {Reanalyses are widely used because they add value to routine observations by generating physically or dynamically consistent and spatiotemporally complete atmospheric fields. Existing studies include extensive discussions of the temporal suitability of reanalyses in studies of global change. This study adds to this existing work by investigating the suitability of reanalyses in studies of regional climate change, in which land-atmosphere interactions play a comparatively important role. In this study, surface air temperatures (Ta) from 12 current reanalysis products are investigated; in particular, the spatial patterns of trends in Ta are examined using homogenized measurements of Ta made at {\~{}}2200 meteorological stations in China from 1979 to 2010. The results show that {\~{}}80{\%} of the mean differences in Ta between the reanalyses and the in situ observations can be attributed to the differences in elevation between the stations and the model grids. Thus, the Ta climatologies display good skill, and these findings rebut previous reports of biases in Ta. However, the biases in theTa trends in the reanalyses diverge spatially (standard deviation = 0.15-0.30 °C decade-1 using 1° × 1° grid cells). The simulated biases in the trends in Ta correlate well with those of precipitation frequency, surface incident solar radiation (Rs) and atmospheric downward longwave radiation (Ld) among the reanalyses (r=-0:83, 0.80 and 0.77; p {\textless} 0.1) when the spatial patterns of these variables are considered. The biases in the trends in Ta over southern China (on the order of -0.07 °C decade-1) are caused by biases in the trends in Rs, Ld and precipitation frequency on the order of 0.10, -0.08 and -0.06 °C decade-1, respectively. The biases in the trends in Ta over northern China (on the order of -0.12 °C decade-1) result jointly from those in Ld and precipitation frequency. Therefore, improving the simulation of precipitation frequency and Rs helps to maximize the signal component corresponding to regional climate. In addition, the analysis of Ta observations helps represent regional warming in ERA-Interim and JRA- 55. Incorporating vegetation dynamics in reanalyses and the use of accurate aerosol information, as in the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), would lead to improvements in the modelling of regional warming. The use of the ensemble technique adopted in the twentieth-century atmospheric model ensemble ERA-20CM significantly narrows the uncertainties associated with regional warming in reanalyses (standard deviation=0.15 °C decade-1).},
author = {Zhou, Chunl{\"{u}}e and He, Yanyi and Wang, Kaicun},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-8113-2018},
issn = {16807324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {11},
pages = {8113--8136},
title = {{On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China}},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0702.1,
abstract = {Daytime (0800–2000 Beijing time) and nighttime (2000–0800 Beijing time) precipitation at approximately 2100 stations in China from 1979 to 2014 was used to evaluate eight current reanalyses. Daytime, nighttime, and nighttime–daytime contrast of precipitation were examined in aspects of climatology, seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and trends. The results show that the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), ERA-Interim/Land, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) can reproduce the observed spatial pattern of nighttime–daytime contrast in precipitation amount, exhibiting a positive center over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and a negative center over southeastern China. All of the reanalyses roughly reproduce seasonal variations of nighttime and daytime precipitation, but not always nighttime–daytime contrast. The reanalyses overestimate drizzle and light precipitation frequencies by greater than 31.5$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} and underestimate heavy precipitation frequencies by less than −30.8$\backslash$$\backslash${\%}. The reanalyses successfully reproduce interannual synchronizations of daytime and nighttime precipitation frequencies and amounts with an averaged correlation coefficient r of 0.66 against the observed data but overestimate their year-to-year amplitudes by approximately 64$\backslash$$\backslash${\%}. The trends in nighttime, daytime, and nighttime–daytime contrast of the observed precipitation amounts are mainly dominated by their frequencies (r = 0.85). Less than moderate precipitation frequency has exhibited a significant downward trend (−2.5$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} decade−1 during nighttime and −1.7$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} decade−1 during daytime) since 1979, which is roughly captured by the reanalyses. However, only JRA-55 captures the observed trend of nighttime precipitation intensity (2.4$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} decade−1), while the remaining reanalyses show negative trends. Overall, JRA-55 and CFSR provide the best reproductions of the observed nighttime–daytime contrast in precipitation intensity, although they have considerable room for improvement.},
author = {Zhou, Chunl{\"{u}}e and Wang, Kaicun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0702.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {16},
pages = {6443--6464},
title = {{Contrasting Daytime and Nighttime Precipitation Variability between Observations and Eight Reanalysis Products from 1979 to 2014 in China}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0702.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zickfeld2013b,
author = {Zickfeld, Kirsten and Eby, Michael and Weaver, Andrew J. and Alexander, Kaitlin and Crespin, Elisabeth and Edwards, Neil R. and Eliseev, Alexey V. and Feulner, Georg and Fichefet, Thierry and Forest, Chris E. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Goosse, Hugues and Holden, Philip B. and Joos, Fortunat and Kawamiya, Michio and Kicklighter, David and Kienert, Hendrik and Matsumoto, Katsumi and Mokhov, Igor I. and Monier, Erwan and Olsen, Steffen M. and Pedersen, Jens O. P. and Perrette, Mahe and Philippon-Berthier, Gwena{\"{e}}lle and Ridgwell, Andy and Schlosser, Adam and {Schneider Von Deimling}, Thomas and Shaffer, Gary and Sokolov, Andrei and Spahni, Renato and Steinacher, Marco and Tachiiri, Kaoru and Tokos, Kathy S. and Yoshimori, Masakazu and Zeng, Ning and Zhao, Fang},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {5782--5809},
title = {{Long-Term Climate Change Commitment and Reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Zommers2020,
author = {Zommers, Zinta and Marbaix, Philippe and Fischlin, Andreas and Ibrahim, Zelina Z. and Grant, Sean and Magnan, Alexandre K. and P{\"{o}}rtner, Hans-Otto and Howden, Mark and Calvin, Katherine and Warner, Koko and Thiery, Wim and Sebesvari, Zita and Davin, Edouard L. and Evans, Jason P. and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and O'Neill, Brian C. and Patwardhan, Anand and Warren, Rachel and van Aalst, Maarten K. and Hulbert, Margot},
doi = {10.1038/s43017-020-0088-0},
issn = {2662-138X},
journal = {Nature Reviews Earth {\&} Environment},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {516--529},
title = {{Burning embers: towards more transparent and robust climate-change risk assessments}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-0088-0},
volume = {1},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zuo2018,
abstract = {The impact of northern, tropical, and southern volcanic eruptions on the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the different response mechanisms arising due to differences in the volcanic forcing structure are investigated using the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). Analysis of the simulations indicates that the Pacific features a significant El Ni{\~{n}}o–like SST anomaly 5–10 months after northern and tropical eruptions, and with a weaker such tendency after southern eruptions, possibly reflective of the weaker magnitude of these eruptions. The Ni{\~{n}}o-3 index peaks with a lag of one and a half years after northern and tropical eruptions. Two years after all three types of volcanic eruptions, a La Ni{\~{n}}a–like SST anomaly pattern over the equatorial Pacific is observed, which seems to form an El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The westerly wind anomaly over the western to central Pacific plays an essential role in favoring the development of an El Ni{\~{n}}o following all three types of eruptions. Thus, the key point of the question is to find the causes of the westerly wind enhancement. The shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) can explain the El Ni{\~{n}}o–like response to northern eruptions, which is not applicable for tropical or southern eruptions. The ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism is the fundamental cause of the anomalous westerly wind for all three types of eruptions.},
author = {Zuo, Meng and Man, Wenmin and Zhou, Tianjun and Guo, Zhun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0571.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6729--6744},
title = {{Different Impacts of Northern, Tropical, and Southern Volcanic Eruptions on the Tropical Pacific SST in the Last Millennium}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0571.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{os-15-779-2019,
author = {Zuo, H and Balmaseda, M A and Tietsche, S and Mogensen, K and Mayer, M},
doi = {10.5194/os-15-779-2019},
journal = {Ocean Science},
number = {3},
pages = {779--808},
title = {{The ECMWF operational ensemble reanalysis–analysis system for ocean and sea ice: a description of the system and assessment}},
url = {https://os.copernicus.org/articles/15/779/2019/},
volume = {15},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zuo2017,
abstract = {A new eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis has been recently completed at ECMWF. It is called Ocean ReAnalysis Pilot 5 (ORAP5), and it spans the period 1979–2012. This work describes the new system, evaluates its performance, and investigates how the estimation of climate indices are affected by the assimilation system settings. ORAP5 introduces several upgrades with respect to its predecessor ORAS4, including increased horizontal and vertical resolution, an prognostic sea-ice component, new versions of the ocean and data assimilation system, revised surface fluxes, new version and treatment of satellite sea surface height data, and assimilation of sea-ice concentration, among others. ORAP5 shows similar performance to ORAS4, with improvements in the northern extratropics (especially in salinity), and slight degradation in the Southern Ocean, probably because the observations are insufficient to constrain the increased level of variability in ORAP5. The sensitivity experiments show that superobbing of altimeter data and correlation length-scales of the background errors have a visible impact on the time evolution of global steric height and its partition into thermo/halo-steric contributions. The sensitivities are especially large in the pre-Argo period, when there is the risk of producing unrealistic steric height variations by overfitting the altimeter data. Compared with a control run without data assimilation, all the assimilation experiments also show stronger variability in the halosteric component in the pre-Argo period. The results highlight the importance of sub-surface observations to assist the assimilation of altimeter data, and the need of using a variety of metrics for evaluating ocean reanalysis systems.},
author = {Zuo, Hao and Balmaseda, Magdalena A and Mogensen, Kristian},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2675-1},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {791--811},
title = {{The new eddy-permitting ORAP5 ocean reanalysis: description, evaluation and uncertainties in climate signals}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2675-1},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}