@article{Aadhar2020,
author = {Aadhar, Saran and Mishra, Vimal},
doi = {10.1029/2020JD033587},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CMIP6,Drought,Multimodel,PET,South Asia,Water Availability},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {e2020JD033587},
title = {{On the Projected Decline in Droughts Over South Asia in CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD033587},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Abbott2021,
abstract = {Cloud-aerosol interactions remain a major obstacle to understanding climate and severe weather. Observations suggest that aerosols strengthen ("invigorate") updrafts in tropical thunderstorms; past research, motivated by the importance of understanding aerosol impacts on clouds, has proposed several mechanisms that could explain that observed link. Here, we show that high-resolution atmospheric simulations can reproduce the observed link between aerosols and updraft speeds. However, we also show that previously proposed mechanisms are unable to explain the invigoration. Examining underlying processes reveals that, in our simulations, high aerosol concentrations increase environmental humidity by producing clouds that mix more condensed water into the surrounding air. In turn, higher humidity favors stronger updrafts. Our results provide a novel physical reason to expect stronger thunderstorms in high-aerosol regions of the tropics.},
author = {Abbott, Tristan and Cronin, Timothy},
doi = {10.1126/science.abc5181},
journal = {Science},
keywords = {Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics},
month = {jan},
number = {6524},
pages = {83--85},
title = {{Aerosol invigoration of atmospheric convection through increases in humidity}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6524/83.abstract},
volume = {371},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Abbott2019,
abstract = {Human water use, climate change and land conversion have created a water crisis for billions of individuals and many ecosystems worldwide. Global water stocks and fluxes are estimated empirically and with computer models, but this information is conveyed to policymakers and researchers through water cycle diagrams. Here we compiled a synthesis of the global water cycle, which we compared with 464 water cycle diagrams from around the world. Although human freshwater appropriation now equals half of global river discharge, only 15{\%} of the water cycle diagrams depicted human interaction with water. Only 2{\%} of the diagrams showed climate change or water pollution—two of the central causes of the global water crisis—which effectively conveys a false sense of water security. A single catchment was depicted in 95{\%} of the diagrams, which precludes the representation of teleconnections such as ocean–land interactions and continental moisture recycling. These inaccuracies correspond with specific dimensions of water mismanagement, which suggest that flaws in water diagrams reflect and reinforce the misunderstanding of global hydrology by policymakers, researchers and the public. Correct depictions of the water cycle will not solve the global water crisis, but reconceiving this symbol is an important step towards equitable water governance, sustainable development and planetary thinking in the Anthropocene.},
author = {Abbott, Benjamin W. and Bishop, Kevin and Zarnetske, Jay P. and Minaudo, Camille and Chapin, F. S. and Krause, Stefan and Hannah, David M. and Conner, Lafe and Ellison, David and Godsey, Sarah E. and Plont, Stephen and Mar{\c{c}}ais, Jean and Kolbe, Tamara and Huebner, Amanda and Frei, Rebecca J. and Hampton, Tyler and Gu, Sen and Buhman, Madeline and {Sara Sayedi}, Sayedeh and Ursache, Ovidiu and Chapin, Melissa and Henderson, Kathryn D. and Pinay, Gilles},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0374-y},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {Climate sciences,Ecology,Environmental sciences,Hydrology,Water resources},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {533--540},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media {\{}LLC{\}}},
title = {{Human domination of the global water cycle absent from depictions and perceptions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0374-y http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0374-y},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Abdel-Lathif2018,
abstract = {A single-column model (SCM) approach is used to assess the CNRM climate model (CNRM-CM) version 6 ability to represent the properties of the apparent heat source (Q 1 ) and moisture sink (Q 2 ) as observed during the 3 month CINDY2011/DYNAMO field campaign, over its Northern Sounding Array (NSA). The performance of the CNRM SCM is evaluated in a constrained configuration in which the latent and sensible heat surface fluxes are prescribed, as, when forced by observed sea surface temperature, the model is strongly limited by the underestimate of the surface fluxes, most probably related to the SCM forcing itself. The model exhibits a significant cold bias in the upper troposphere, near 200 hPa, and strong wet biases close to the surface and above 700 hPa. The analysis of the Q 1 and Q 2 profile distributions emphasizes the properties of the convective parameterization of the CNRM-CM physics. The distribution of the Q 2 profile is particularly challenging. The model strongly underestimates the frequency of occurrence of the deep moistening profiles, which likely involve misrepresentation of the shallow and congestus convection. Finally, a statistical approach is used to objectively define atmospheric regimes and construct a typical convection life cycle. A composite analysis shows that the CNRM SCM captures the general transition from bottom-heavy to mid-heavy to top-heavy convective heating. Some model errors are shown to be related to the stratiform regimes. The moistening observed during the shallow and congestus convection regimes also requires further improvements of this CNRM-CM physics.},
author = {Abdel-Lathif, Ahmat Younous and Roehrig, Romain and Beau, Isabelle and Douville, Herv{\'{e}}},
doi = {10.1002/2017MS001077},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {CINDY2011/DYNAMO field campaign,single-column modeling,statistical analysis,subgrid-scale (SGS) parameterization,tropical },
number = {3},
pages = {578--602},
title = {{Single-Column Modeling of Convection During the CINDY2011/DYNAMO Field Campaign With the CNRM Climate Model Version 6}},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Abell2021,
abstract = {The prevailing mid-latitude westerly winds, known as the westerlies, are a fundamental component of the climate system because they have a crucial role in driving surface ocean circulation1 and modulating air–sea heat, momentum and carbon exchange1–3. Recent work suggests that westerly wind belts are migrating polewards in response to anthropogenic forcing4,5. Reconstructing the westerlies during past warm periods such as the Pliocene epoch, in which atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was about 350 to 450 parts per million6 and temperatures were about 2 to 4 degrees Celsius higher than today7, can improve our understanding of changes in the position and strength of these wind systems as the climate continues to warm. Here we show that the westerlies were weaker and more poleward during the warm Pliocene than during glacial periods after the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (iNHG), which occurred around 2.73 million years ago8. Our results, which are based on dust and export productivity reconstructions, indicate that major ice sheet development during the iNHG was accompanied by substantial increases in dust fluxes in the mid-latitude North Pacific Ocean, especially compared to those in the subarctic North Pacific. Following this shift, changes in dust and productivity largely track the glacial–interglacial cycles of the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene epochs. On the basis of this pattern, we infer that shifts in the westerlies were primarily driven by variations in Plio-Pleistocene thermal gradients and ice volume. By combining this relationship with other dust records9–11 and climate modelling results12, we find that the proposed changes in the westerlies were globally synchronous. If the Pliocene is predictive of future warming, we posit that continued poleward movement and weakening of the present-day westerlies in both hemispheres can be expected.},
annote = {westerlies were weaker and more poleward during the warm Pliocene},
author = {Abell, Jordan T. and Winckler, Gisela and Anderson, Robert F. and Herbert, Timothy D.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-03062-1},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7840},
pages = {70--75},
title = {{Poleward and weakend westerlies during Pliocene warmth}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03062-1},
volume = {589},
year = {2021}
}
@article{10.1175/WAF-D-19-0209.1,
abstract = {The relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the northern basins of the Western Hemisphere is examined. All rapid intensification events in the part of the Western Hemisphere north of the equator and the MJO phase and amplitude are compiled from 1974 to 2015. Rapid intensification events and the MJO tend to move in tandem with each other from west to east across the hemisphere, though rapid intensification appears most likely during a neutral MJO phase. The addition of this information to an operational statistical rapid intensification forecasting scheme does not significantly improve forecasts.},
author = {Aberson, Sim D and Kaplan, J},
doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-19-0209.1},
issn = {0882-8156},
journal = {Weather and Forecasting},
number = {5},
pages = {1865--1870},
title = {{The Relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0209.1},
volume = {35},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Abish2013,
abstract = {Recent research has reported that the tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) of the boreal summer monsoon season is weakening. The analysis herein using 60 yr (1950–2009) of data reveals that this weakening of the TEJ is due to the decreasing trend in the upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient over the area covered by the TEJ. During this period, the upper troposphere over the equatorial Indian Ocean has warmed due to enhanced deep moist convection associated with the rapid warming of the equatorial Indian Ocean. At the same time, a cooling of the upper troposphere has taken place over the Northern Hemisphere subtropics including the Tibetan anticyclone. The simultaneous cooling of the subtropics and the equatorial heating has caused a decrease in the upper tropospheric meridional thermal gradient. The consequent reduction in the strength of the easterly thermal wind has resulted in the weakening of the TEJ.},
author = {Abish, B. and Joseph, P. V. and Johannessen, Ola M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00440.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Atmospheric circulation,Climate change,Hadley circulation,Monsoons,Upper troposphere},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {9408--9414},
title = {{Weakening Trend of the Tropical Easterly Jet Stream of the Boreal Summer Monsoon Season 1950–2009}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00440.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Abram2020,
abstract = {The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1–4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the twentieth century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6. However, confidence in predictions of future IOD change is limited by known biases in IOD models7 and the lack of information on natural IOD variability before anthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is strong and unambiguous, to produce a semi- continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of the last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were rare before 1960. However, the most extreme event on record (1997) is not unprecedented, because at least one event that was approximately 27 to 42 per cent larger occurred naturally during the seventeenth century. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between the variability of the IOD and the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was characterized by weak interannual variability before approximately 1590, which probably altered teleconnection patterns, and by anomalously strong variability during the seventeenth century, which was associated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency towards clustering of positive IOD events is evident in our reconstruction, which—together with the identification of extreme IOD variability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling—may have implications for improving seasonal and decadal predictions and managing the climate risks of future IOD variability.},
author = {Abram, Nerilie J. and Wright, Nicky M. and Ellis, Bethany and Dixon, Bronwyn C. and Wurtzel, Jennifer B. and England, Matthew H. and Ummenhofer, Caroline C. and Philibosian, Belle and Cahyarini, Sri Yudawati and Yu, Tsai-Luen and Shen, Chuan-Chou and Cheng, Hai and Edwards, R. Lawrence and Heslop, David},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2084-4},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {mar},
number = {7799},
pages = {385--392},
title = {{Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2084-4},
volume = {579},
year = {2020}
}
@article{adam_et_al_2018,
abstract = {Current climate models represent the zonal- and annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position in a biased way, with an unrealistic double precipitation peak straddling the equator in the ensemble mean over the models. This bias is seasonally and regionally localized. It results primarily from two regions: the eastern Pacific and Atlantic (EPA), where the ITCZ in boreal winter and spring is displaced farther south than is observed; and the western Pacific (WP), where a more pronounced and wider than observed double ITCZ straddles the equator year-round. Additionally, the precipitation associated with the ascending branches of the zonal overturning circulations (e.g., Walker circulation) in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors is shifted westward. We interpret these biases in light of recent theories that relate the ITCZ position to the atmospheric energy budget. WP biases are associated with the well known Pacific cold tongue bias, which, in turn, is linked to atmospheric net energy input biases near the equator. In contrast, EPA biases are shown to be associated with a positive bias in the cross-equatorial divergent atmospheric energy transport during boreal winter and spring, with two potential sources: tropical biases associated with equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical low clouds, and extratropical biases associated with Southern Ocean clouds and north Atlantic SST. The distinct seasonal and regional characteristics of WP and EPA biases and the differences in their associated energy budget biases suggest that the biases in the two sectors involve different mechanisms and potentially different sources.},
author = {Adam, Ori and Schneider, Tapio and Brient, Florent},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3909-1},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atmospheric energy budget,CMIP5 models,Double- bias},
number = {1-2},
pages = {101--117},
title = {{Regional and seasonal variations of the double-ITCZ bias in CMIP5 models}},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Adames2017,
author = {Adames, {\'{A}}ngel F. and Kim, Daehyun and Sobel, Adam H. and {Del Genio}, Anthony and Wu, Jingbo},
doi = {10.1002/2017MS001040},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {dec},
number = {8},
pages = {2946--2967},
title = {{Characterization of Moist Processes Associated With Changes in the Propagation of the MJO With Increasing CO2}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017MS001040},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Adames2017a,
author = {Adames, {\'{A}}ngel F. and Kim, Daehyun and Sobel, Adam H. and {Del Genio}, Anthony and Wu, Jingbo},
doi = {10.1002/2017MS000913},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {1251--1268},
title = {{Changes in the structure and propagation of the MJO with increasing CO2}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017MS000913},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Adler2017,
abstract = {Global precipitation variations over the satellite era are reviewed using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly, globally complete analyses, which integrate satellite and surface gauge information. Mean planetary values are examined and compared, over ocean, with information from recent satellite programs and related estimates, with generally positive agreements, but with some indication of small underestimates for GPCP over the global ocean. Variations during the satellite era in global precipitation are tied to ENSO events, with small increases during El Ninos, and very noticeable decreases after major volcanic eruptions. No overall significant trend is noted in the global precipitation mean value, unlike that for surface temperature and atmospheric water vapor. However, there is a pattern of positive and negative trends across the planet with increases over tropical oceans and decreases over some middle latitude regions. These observed patterns are a result of a combination of inter-decadal variations and the effect of the global warming during the period. The results reviewed here indicate the value of such analyses as GPCP and the possible improvement in the information as the record lengthens and as new, more sophisticated and more accurate observations are included.},
author = {Adler, Robert F. and Gu, Guojun and Sapiano, Matthew and Wang, Jian-Jian and Huffman, George J.},
doi = {10.1007/s10712-017-9416-4},
issn = {0169-3298},
journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {679--699},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Global Precipitation: Means, Variations and Trends During the Satellite Era (1979–2014)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-017-9416-4 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10712-017-9416-4},
volume = {38},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Adusumilli2021,
abstract = {Estimating the relative contributions of the atmospheric and dynamic components of ice sheet mass balance is critical for improving projections of future sea level rise. Existing estimates of changes in Antarctic ice-sheet height, which can be used to infer changes in mass, are only accurate at multi-year time scales. However, NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry mission now allows us to accurately measure changes in ice-sheet height at sub-annual time scales. Here, we use ICESat-2 data to estimate height changes over Antarctica between April 2019 and June 2020. These data show widespread increases in surface height over West Antarctica during the 2019 austral winter. Using climate reanalysis data, we show that 41{\%} of increases in height during winter were from snow accumulation via extreme precipitation events ? 63{\%} of these events were associated with landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) which occurred only 5.1{\%} of the time. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091076},
author = {Adusumilli, Susheel and Fish, Meredith and Fricker, Helen Amanda and Medley, Brooke},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL091076},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {feb},
number = {5},
pages = {e2020GL091076},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Atmospheric River Precipitation Contributed to Rapid Increases in Surface Height of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in 2019}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091076},
volume = {48},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Adusumilli2019,
abstract = {Abstract Increased climate variability is driving changes in water storage across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Improved observational estimates of these storage changes are important for validation of hydrological models and predicting future water availability. We estimate CONUS terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) from 2007-2017 using Global Positioning System displacements, constrained by lower-resolution TWSA observations from satellite gravity -- a novel combination that provides higher spatiotemporal resolution than current estimates. The relative contribution of seasonal, interannual, and sub-seasonal TWSA varies widely across CONUS watersheds, with implications for regional water security. Separately, we find positive correlation between TWSA and the El Ni{\~{n}}o/Southern Oscillation in the southeastern Texas-Gulf and South-Atlantic Gulf watersheds and an unexpected negative correlation in the southwest. In the western USA, atmospheric rivers (ARs) drive a large fraction of sub-seasonal TWSA, with the top 5{\%} of ARs contributing 73{\%} of total AR-related TWSA increases.},
author = {Adusumilli, S and Borsa, A A and Fish, M A and McMillan, H K and Silverii, F},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL085370},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {13006--13015},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A Decade of Water Storage Changes Across the Contiguous United States From GPS and Satellite Gravity}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085370 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085370},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{aghakouchak2015water,
author = {AghaKouchak, Amir and Feldman, David and Hoerling, Martin and Huxman, Travis and Lund, Jay},
doi = {10.1038/524409a},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {aug},
number = {7566},
pages = {409--411},
title = {{Water and climate: Recognize anthropogenic drought}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/524409a},
volume = {524},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Agudelo2018,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Several studies have identified a recent lengthening of the dry season over the southern Amazon during the last three decades. Some explanations to this lengthening suggest the influence of changes in the regional circulation over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, whereas others point to the influence of vegetation changes over the Amazon rainforest. This study aims to understand the implications of more frequent long dry seasons in this forest on atmospheric moisture transport toward northern South America and the Caribbean region. Using a semi-Langrangian model for water vapor tracking, results indicate that longer dry seasons in the southern Amazon relate to reductions of water vapor content over the southern and eastern Amazon basin, due to significant reductions of evaporation and recycled precipitation rates in these regions, especially during the transition from dry to wet conditions in the southern Amazon. On the other hand, longer dry seasons also relate to enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Caribbean and northern South America regions, mainly due to increased contributions of water vapor from oceanic regions and the increase of surface moisture convergence over the equatorial region. This highlights the importance of understanding the relative role of regional circulation and local surface conditions on modulating water vapor transport toward continental regions.},
author = {Agudelo, Jhoana and Arias, Paola A. and Vieira, Sara C. and Mart{\'{i}}nez, J. Alejandro},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4285-1},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Northern South America,Southern Amazon dry season,Water vapor tracking,Water vapor transport},
month = {mar},
number = {5-6},
pages = {2647--2665},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Influence of longer dry seasons in the Southern Amazon on patterns of water vapor transport over northern South America and the Caribbean}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4285-1 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4285-1},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ahn2020a,
abstract = {Many climate models struggle with a poor simulation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), especially its propagation across the Maritime Continent (MC). This study quantitatively evaluates the robustness of MJO propagation over the MC in climate models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) with a newly developed MC propagation metric. The results show that the CMIP6 models simulate MJO propagation over the MC more realistically than the CMIP5 models. Lower free‐tropospheric moisture budget analysis highlights that the greater horizontal moisture advection is responsible for the enhanced MJO propagation over the MC. The increase in horizontal moisture advection in the CMIP6 models is mainly attributed to the steeper horizontal mean state moisture gradient around the MC, which is associated with the reduction of the equatorial dry bias.},
author = {Ahn, Min‐Seop and Kim, Daehyun and Kang, Daehyun and Lee, Jiwoo and Sperber, Kenneth R. and Gleckler, Peter J. and Jiang, Xianan and Ham, Yoo‐Geun and Kim, Hyemi},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL087250},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {e2020GL087250},
title = {{MJO Propagation Across the Maritime Continent: Are CMIP6 Models Better Than CMIP5 Models?}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL087250},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ahn2020,
abstract = {The Maritime Continent (MC) region is known as a “barrier” in the life cycle of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). During boreal winter, the MJO detours the equatorial MC land region southward and propagates through the oceanic region. Also, about half of the MJO events that initiate over the Indian Ocean cease around the MC. The mechanism through which the MC affects MJO propagation, however, has remained unanswered. The current study investigates the MJO–MC interaction with a particular focus on the role of MC land convection. Using a global climate model that simulates both mean climate and MJO realistically, we performed two sensitivity experiments in which updraft plume radius is set to its maximum and minimum value only in the MC land grid points, making convective top deeper and shallower, respectively. Our results show that MC land convection plays a key role in shaping the 3D climatological moisture distribution around the MC through its local and nonlocal effects. Shallower and weaker MC land convection results in a steepening of the vertical and meridional mean moisture gradient over the MC region. The opposite is the case when MC land convection becomes deeper and stronger. The MJO's eastward propagation is enhanced (suppressed) with the steeper (lower) mean moisture gradient. The moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MJO reveals the vertical and meridional advection of the mean MSE by MJO wind anomalies as the key processes that are responsible for the changes in MJO propagation characteristics. Our results pinpoint the critical role of the background moisture gradient on MJO propagation.},
author = {Ahn, Min-Seop and Kim, Daehyun and Ham, Yoo-Geun and Park, Sungsu},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0342.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {1659--1675},
title = {{Role of Maritime Continent Land Convection on the Mean State and MJO Propagation}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/5/1659/347154/Role-of-Maritime-Continent-Land-Convection-on-the},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ahn2017a,
author = {Ahn, Min-Seop and Kim, Daehyun and Sperber, Kenneth R. and Kang, In-Sik and Maloney, Eric and Waliser, Duane and Hendon, Harry},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3558-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {11-12},
pages = {4023--4045},
title = {{MJO simulation in CMIP5 climate models: MJO skill metrics and process-oriented diagnosis}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3558-4},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{apfypl18,
abstract = {Several new satellite-derived and long-term surface water datasets at high-spatial resolution have recently become available at the global scale, showing different characteristics and abilities. They are either based on visible imagery from Landsat – the Global 3-second Water Body Map (G3WBM) and the Global Surface Water Explorer (GSWE) – or on the merging of passive/active microwave and visible observations – Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellite (GIEMS-D3) – that has been downscaled from a native resolution of 25 km × 25 km to the 90 m × 90 m resolution. The objective of this paper is to perform a thorough comparison of the different water surface estimates in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches and propose a strategy for future developments of high-resolution surface water databases. Results show that due to their very high spatial resolution (30 m) the Landsat-based datasets are well suited to retrieve open water surfaces, even at very small size. GIEMS-D3 has a better ability to detect water under vegetation and during the cloudy season, and it shows larger seasonal dynamics. However, its current version overestimates surface water extent on water-saturated soils, and due to its low original (i.e. before downscaling) spatial resolution, it is under-performing at detecting small water bodies. The permanent waters for G3WBM, GSWE, GIEMS-D3 and GLWD represent respectively: 2.76, 2.05, 3.28, and 3.04 million km2. The transitory waters shows larger discrepancies: 0.48, 3.72, 10.39 and 8.81 million km2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data (from ENVIronment SATellite (ENVISAT), Sentinel and soon the Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT)) would be a good complementary information because they have a high nominal spatial resolution and are less sensitive to clouds than visible measurements. However, global SAR datasets are still not available due to difficulties in developing a retrieval scheme adequate at the global scale. In order to improve our estimates of global wetland extents at high resolution and over long-term records, three interim lines of action are proposed: (1) extend the temporal record of GIEMS-D3 to exploit the full time series of microwave observations (from 1978 to present), (2) develop an approach to fuse the GSWE and GIEMS-D3 datasets leveraging the strengths of both, and (3) prepare for the release of SAR global datasets.},
author = {Aires, Filipe and Prigent, Catherine and Fluet-Chouinard, Etienne and Yamazaki, Dai and Papa, Fabrice and Lehner, Bernhard},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2018.06.015},
issn = {00344257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {Landsat,Passive microwaves,Remote sensing,Wetlands and Inundation},
pages = {427--441},
title = {{Comparison of visible and multi-satellite global inundation datasets at high-spatial resolution. Remote sensing of environment}},
volume = {216},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Akinsanola2018,
abstract = {The West African summer monsoon (WASM) rainfall is of significant socioeconomic importance. Therefore, its response to climate change is of great concern to climate scientists. Based on observations, reanalysis, and multi-model ensemble mean (EnsMean) simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the responses of WASM rainfall, as well as some relevant atmospheric features, to global warming are investigated. Results from the historical period (1980–2005) indicate that EnsMean reasonably reproduced the characteristics of WASM rainfall, and the strength and position of the upper- level Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and mid-level African Easterly Jet (AEJ). Under global warming, EnsMean exhibits localized future changes in spatial rainfall pattern; specifically, a statistically significant increase (decrease) is evident over the central- eastern (western) Sahel subregion. Similarly, the annual cycle exhibits a decrease (increase) in pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) rainfall over the region, evident over the Sahel subregion. Increased surface evaporation and enhanced atmospheric moisture convergence are notable over the region of increasing WASM rainfall, while a weakened and possible alteration of large-scale atmospheric circulation features is evident over the study area.},
author = {Akinsanola, A. A. and Zhou, Wen},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2516-3},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {may},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1021--1031},
title = {{Ensemble-based CMIP5 simulations of West African summer monsoon rainfall: current climate and future changes}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-018-2516-3},
volume = {136},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Akinsanola2020c,
abstract = {West African Summer Monsoon (WASM) rainfall exhibits large variability at interannual and decadal timescales, causing droughts and floods in many years. Therefore it is important to investigate the major tropospheric features controlling the WASM rainfall and explore its potential to develop an objective monsoon index. In this study, monthly mean reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and monthly rainfall data from three gridded observations during the 65-year period of 1950–2014 were employed. Dry and wet rainfall years were identified using a standardized precipitation index. In a composite analysis of wet and dry years, the dynamical features controlling the WASM exhibit an obvious contrast between these years, and a weaker (stronger) African Easterly Jet (Tropical Easterly Jet) is observed during the wet years. Also, a well-developed and deep low-level westerly flow at about 850 hPa is evident in wet years while an obvious reversal is observed in dry years. Considering this, the main regions of the two easterly jet streams and low-level westerly wind are proposed for objectively defining an effective WASM index (WASMI). The results indicate that the WASMI defined herein can reflect variations in June–September rainfall over West Africa. The index exhibits most of the variabilities observed in the rainfall series, with high (low) index values occurring in the 1950–1960s (1970–1980s), suggesting that the WASMI is skilled in capturing the respective wet and dry rainfall episodes over the region. Also, the WASMI is significantly correlated (r = 0.8) with summer monsoon rainfall, which further affirms that it can indicate not only variability but also the intensity of WASM rainfall.},
author = {Akinsanola, Akintomide Afolayan and Zhou, Wen},
doi = {10.3390/atmos11030309},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {309},
title = {{Understanding the Variability of West African Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Contrasting Tropospheric Features and Monsoon Index}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/3/309},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Akinsanola2018b,
abstract = {This study presents evaluation of the ability of Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4) driven by nine global circulation models (GCMs), to skilfully reproduce the key features of rainfall climatology over West Africa for the period of 1980-2005. The seasonal climatology and annual cycle of the RCA4 simulations were assessed over three homogenous subregions of West Africa (Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and evaluated using observed precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Furthermore, the model output was evaluated using a wide range of statistical measures. The interseasonal and interannual variability of the RCA4 were further assessed over the subregions and the whole of the West Africa domain. Results indicate that the RCA4 captures the spatial and interseasonal rainfall pattern adequately but exhibits a weak performance over the Guinea coast. Findings from the interannual rainfall variability indicate that the model performance is better over the larger West Africa domain than the subregions. The largest difference across the RCA4 simulated annual rainfall was found in the Sahel. Result from the Mann–Kendall test showed no significant trend for the 1980–2005 period in annual rainfall either in GPCP observation data or in the model simulations over West Africa. In many aspects, the RCA4 simulation driven by the HadGEM2-ES perform best over the region. The use of the multimodel ensemble mean has resulted to the improved representation of rainfall characteristics over the study domain.},
author = {Akinsanola, A.A. and Ajayi, V.O. and Adejare, A.T. and Adeyeri, O.E. and Gbode, I.E. and Ogunjobi, K.O. and Nikulin, G. and Abolude, A.T.},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-017-2087-8},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {apr},
number = {1-2},
pages = {437--450},
title = {{Evaluation of rainfall simulations over West Africa in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 global circulation models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-017-2087-8},
volume = {132},
year = {2018}
}
@article{cli7050069,
abstract = {Salinity intrusion through the estuaries in low-lying tide-dominated deltas is a serious threat that is expected to worsen in changing climatic conditions. This research makes a comparative analysis on the impact of salinity intrusion due to a reduced upstream discharge, a sea level rise, and cyclonic conditions to find which one of these event dominates the salinity intrusion. A calibrated and validated salinity model (Delft3D) and storm surge model (Delft Dashboard) are used to simulate the surface water salinity for different climatic conditions. Results show that the effects of the reduced upstream discharge, a sea level rise, and cyclones cause different levels of impacts in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta along the Bangladesh coast. Reduced upstream discharge causes an increased saltwater intrusion in the entire region. A rising sea level causes increased salinity in the shallower coast. The cyclonic impact on saltwater intrusion is confined within the landfall zone. These outcomes suggest that, for a tide dominated delta, if a sea level rise (SLR) or cyclone occurred, the impact would be conditional and local. However, if the upstream discharge reduces, the impact would be gradual and along the entire coast.},
author = {Akter, Rabeya and Asik, Tansir Zaman and Sakib, Mohiuddin and Akter, Marin and Sakib, Mostofa Najmus and {Al Azad}, A S M Alauddin and Maruf, Montasir and Haque, Anisul and Rahman, Md. Munsur},
doi = {10.3390/cli7050069},
issn = {2225-1154},
journal = {Climate},
number = {5},
title = {{The Dominant Climate Change Event for Salinity Intrusion in the GBM Delta}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/5/69},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Alessandri2017,
abstract = {The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2 m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration. {\textcopyright} 2016 The Author(s)},
author = {Alessandri, Andrea and Catalano, Franco and {De Felice}, Matteo and {Van Den Hurk}, Bart and {Doblas Reyes}, Francisco and Boussetta, Souhail and Balsamo, Gianpaolo and Miller, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3372-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate prediction,Climate simulation,Earth system modeling,Land-climate interactions,Multi-scale prediction enhancement,Vegetation dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {1215--1237},
title = {{Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3372-4},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Alessandri2008,
author = {Alessandri, Andrea and Navarra, Antonio},
doi = {10.1029/2007GL032415},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {L02718},
title = {{On the coupling between vegetation and rainfall inter-annual anomalies: Possible contributions to seasonal rainfall predictability over land areas}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2007GL032415},
volume = {35},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Alessandri2014SciRep,
abstract = {The warm-temperate regions of the globe characterized by dry summers and wet winters (Mediterranean climate; MED) are especially vulnerable to climate change. The potential impact on water resources, ecosystems and human livelihood requires a detailed picture of the future changes in this unique climate zone. Here we apply a probabilistic approach to quantitatively address how and why the geographic distribution of MED will change based on the latest-available climate projections for the 21st century. Our analysis provides, for the first time, a robust assessment of significant northward and eastward future expansions of MED over both the Euro-Mediterranean and western North America. Concurrently, we show a significant 21st century replacement of the equatorwardMEDmargins by the arid climate type. Moreover, future winters will become wetter and summers drier in both the old and newly established MED zones. Should these projections be realized, living conditions in some of the most densely populated regions in the world will be seriously jeopardized},
author = {Alessandri, Andrea and {De Felice}, Matteo and Zeng, Ning and Mariotti, Annarita and Pan, Yutong and Cherchi, Annalisa and Lee, June-Yi Yi and Wang, Bin and Ha, Kyung-Ja Ja and Ruti, Paolo and Artale, Vincenzo},
doi = {10.1038/srep07211},
isbn = {2045-2322 (Electronic) 2045-2322 (Linking)},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {7211},
pmid = {25448867},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21stcentury}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/srep07211 http://www.nature.com/articles/srep07211},
volume = {4},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Alexander2016a,
abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX) in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.},
author = {Alexander, Lisa V.},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2015.10.007},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Data issues,Heatwaves,Heavy rainfall,Intergovernmental panel on climate change},
pages = {4--16},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.10.007},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Algarra2020,
abstract = {One of the most robust signals of climate change is the relentless rise in global mean surface temperature, which is linked closely with the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere. A more humid atmosphere will lead to enhanced moisture transport due to, among other factors, an intensification of atmospheric rivers (ARs) activity, which are an important mechanism of moisture advection from subtropical to extra-tropical regions. Here we show an enhanced evapotranspiration rates in association with landfalling atmospheric river events. These anomalous moisture uptake (AMU) locations are identified on a global scale. The interannual variability of AMU displays a significant increase over the period 1980-2017, close to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling, at 7 {\%} per degree of surface temperature rise. These findings are consistent with an intensification of AR predicted by future projections. Our results also reveal generalized significant increases in AMU at the regional scale and an asymmetric supply of oceanic moisture, in which the maximum values are located over the region known as the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) centred on the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.},
author = {Algarra, Iago and Nieto, Raquel and Ramos, Alexandre M and Eiras-Barca, Jorge and Trigo, Ricardo M and Gimeno, Luis},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-18876-w},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {5082},
title = {{Significant increase of global anomalous moisture uptake feeding landfalling Atmospheric Rivers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18876-w},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ali2018GRL,
abstract = {Using global station‐based observations of precipitation, near‐surface air temperature (SAT), and dew point temperature (DPT), we show that the negative scaling relationship found between extreme daily precipitation and SAT over the tropics is associated with the low seasonality in temperature. When using a binning technique (BT) or quantile regression (QR) not accounting for seasonality in temperature produces a negative scaling for the majority of stations in the tropics, with higher temperatures associated with smaller precipitation extremes. After removing temperature seasonality, we find that most locations show a positive (median 5.2{\%}/K) scaling with SAT and 96{\%} of global locations exhibit positive (median 6.1{\%}/K) scaling with DPT. Moreover, about 33{\%} (22{\%}) of locations show super C‐C scaling (higher than 7{\%}/K) with DPT (SAT). Our results show that the impact of warming on extreme precipitation (especially over the tropics) may be higher than previously thought.},
annote = {Most tropical locations show a positive (median 5.2{\%}/K) scaling with surface air temperature and 96{\%} of global locations exhibit positive (median 6.1{\%}/K) scaling with dew point temperature.},
author = {Ali, Haider and Fowler, Hayley J. and Mishra, Vimal},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL080557},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Air temperature,Binning,Dew Point Temperature,Extreme Quantile Regression,Scaling},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {12320--12330},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL080557 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080557},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ali2009,
author = {Ali, Abdou and Lebel, Thierry},
doi = {10.1002/joc.1832},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Sahel,decadal variability,drought,rainfall index,scale issues,spatial variability},
month = {oct},
number = {12},
pages = {1705--1714},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The Sahelian standardized rainfall index revisited}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.1832},
volume = {29},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Allan2014,
author = {Allan, Richard P and Liu, Chunlei and Zahn, Matthias and Lavers, David A and Koukouvagias, Evgenios and Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro},
doi = {10.1007/s10712-012-9213-z},
journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
pages = {533--552},
title = {{Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations}},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2{\&}SrcAuth=ORCID{\&}SrcApp=OrcidOrg{\&}DestLinkType=FullRecord{\&}DestApp=WOS{\_}CPL{\&}KeyUT=WOS:000333700700004{\&}KeyUID=WOS:000333700700004},
volume = {35},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Allan2020,
abstract = {Short Title: Expected water cycle response to climate change Abstract Globally, thermodynamics explains an increases in atmospheric water vapour with warming of around 7{\%} per o C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at {\~{}}2-3{\%} per o C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change are already a significant component of regional water cycle change and are expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.},
author = {Allan, Richard P. and Barlow, Mathew and Byrne, Michael P. and Cherchi, Annalisa and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Fowler, Hayley J. and Gan, Thian Y. and Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Swann, Abigail L. S. and Wilcox, Laura J. and Zolina, Olga},
doi = {10.1111/nyas.14337},
issn = {0077-8923},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {49--75},
title = {{Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nyas.14337},
volume = {1472},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Allen2014,
abstract = {The tropical belt has expanded by several degrees latitude over the past 30 years, following an earlier period of contraction. Climate simulations indicate that tropical belt width is controlled by multidecadal sea surface temperature variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and anthropogenic aerosols.},
author = {Allen, Robert J. and Norris, Joel R. and Kovilakam, Mahesh},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2091},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {270--274},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width}},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Allen2014JGR,
abstract = {Large uncertainty in the direct radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) exists, with published estimates ranging from 0.25 to 0.9 W m−2. A significant source of this uncertainty relates to the vertical distribution of BC, particularly relative to cloud layers. We first compare the vertical distribution of BC in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to aircraft measurements and find that models tend to overestimate upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric (UT/LS) BC, particularly over the central Pacific from Hiaper Pole-to-Pole Observations Flight 1 (HIPPO1). However, CMIP5 generally underestimates Arctic BC from the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites campaign, implying a geographically dependent bias. Factors controlling the vertical distribution of BC in CMIP5 models, such as wet and dry deposition, precipitation, and convective mass flux (MC), are subsequently investigated. We also perform a series of sensitivity experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, including prescribed meteorology, enhanced vertical resolution, and altered convective wet scavenging efficiency and deep convection. We find that convective mass flux has opposing effects on the amount of black carbon in the atmosphere. More MC is associated with more convective precipitation, enhanced wet removal, and less BC below 500 hPa. However, more MC, particularly above 500 hPa, yield more BC aloft due to enhanced convective lofting. These relationships—particularly MC versus BC below 500 hPa—are generally stronger in the tropics. Compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, most CMIP5 models overestimate MC, with all models overestimating MC above 500 hPa. Our results suggest that excessive convective transport is one of the reasons for CMIP5 overestimation of UT/LS BC.},
author = {Allen, Robert J. and Landuyt, William},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD021595},
issn = {21562202},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {4808--4835},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The vertical distribution of black carbon in CMIP5 models: Comparison to observations and the importance of convective transport}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2014jd021595},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Allen2016c,
abstract = {Atmospheric aerosols are of significant environmental importance, due to their effects on air quality, as well as their ability to alter the planet's radiative balance. Recent studies characterizing the effects of climate change on air quality and the broader distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere show significant, but inconsistent results, including the sign of the effect. Using a suite of state-of-the-art climate models, we show that climate change is associated with a negative aerosol-climate feedback of -0.02 to -0.09 W m -2 K -1 for direct radiative effects, with much larger values likely for indirect radiative effects. This is related to an increase in most aerosol species, particularly over the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, largely due to a decrease in wet deposition associated with less large-scale precipitation over land. Although simulation of aerosol processes in global climate models possesses uncertainty, we conclude that climate change may increase aerosol burden and surface concentration, which may have implications for future air quality.},
author = {Allen, Robert J. and Landuyt, William and Rumbold, Steven T.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2827},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {269--274},
title = {{An increase in aerosol burden and radiative effects in a warmer world}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2827},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Allen2015JClim,
abstract = {Through the latter half of the twentieth century, meridional shifts in tropical precipitation have been associated with severe droughts. Although linked to a variety of causes, the origin of these shifts remains elusive. Here, it is shown that they are unlikely to arise from internal variability of the climate system alone, as simulated by coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models. Similar to previous work, the authors find that anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols are the dominant drivers of simulated twentieth-century tropical precipitation shifts. Models that include the cloud-albedo and lifetime aerosol indirect effects yield significantly larger shifts than models that lack aerosol indirect effects and also reproduce most of the southward tropical precipitation shift in the Pacific. However, all models significantly underestimate the magnitude of the observed shifts in the Atlantic sector, unless driven by observed SSTs. Mechanistically, tropical precipitation shifts are driven by interhemispheric sea surface temperature variations, which are associated with hemispherically asymmetric changes in low-latitude surface pressure, winds, and low clouds, as well as the strength, location, and cross-equatorial energy transport of the Hadley cells. Models with a larger hemispheric aerosol radiative forcing gradient yield larger hemispheric temperature contrasts and, in turn, larger meridional precipitation shifts. The authors conclude that aerosols are likely the dominant driver of the observed southward tropical precipitation shift in the Pacific. Aerosols are also significant drivers of the Atlantic shifts, although one cannot rule out a contribution from natural variability to account for the magnitude of the observed shifts.},
author = {Allen, Robert J. and Evan, Amato T. and Booth, Ben B. B.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0148.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Circulation/Dynamics,Climate models,Hydrologic cycle,Model evaluation/performance,Models and modeling,Trends,Tropical variability,Variability},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {8219--8246},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Interhemispheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Tropical Precipitation Shifts during the Late Twentieth Century}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2Fjcli-d-15-0148.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0148.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{aww10,
author = {Allen, D M and Whitfield, P H and Werner, A},
doi = {10.1002/hyp.7757},
issn = {08856087},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
month = {nov},
number = {23},
pages = {3392--3412},
title = {{Groundwater level responses in temperate mountainous terrain: regime classification, and linkages to climate and streamflow}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.7757},
volume = {24},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Allen:2015,
abstract = {Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broadscale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures-"hotter drought", an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene-are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortalityrelevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally.We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.},
author = {Allen, Craig D. and Breshears, David D. and McDowell, Nate G.},
doi = {10.1890/ES15-00203.1},
isbn = {2150-8925},
issn = {21508925},
journal = {Ecosphere},
keywords = {CO2 fertilization,Carbon starvation,Climate change,Drought,ESA centennial paper,Extreme events,Forest die-off,Forests,Hydraulic failure,Insect pests,Pathogens,Tree mortality,Woodlands},
number = {8},
pages = {1--55},
publisher = {Ecological Society of America},
title = {{On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00203.1},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Almazroui2021,
abstract = {The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45{\%}, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30{\%} over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40{\%} over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.},
author = {Almazroui, Mansour and Islam, M. Nazrul and Saeed, Fahad and Saeed, Sajjad and Ismail, Muhammad and Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar and Diallo, Ismaila and O'Brien, Enda and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Mart{\'{i}}nez-Castro, Daniel and Cavazos, Tereza and Cerezo-Mota, Ruth and Tippett, Michael K. and Gutowski, William J. and Alfaro, Eric J. and Hidalgo, Hugo G. and Vichot-Llano, Alejandro and Campbell, Jayaka D. and Kamil, Shahzad and Rashid, Irfan Ur and Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Stephenson, Tannecia and Taylor, Michael and Barlow, Mathew},
doi = {10.1007/s41748-021-00199-5},
issn = {2509-9434},
journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
keywords = {Caribbean,Central America,Climate change,Precipitation,Temperature,United States},
number = {1},
pages = {1--24},
title = {{Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00199-5},
volume = {5},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Almazroui2020a,
abstract = {This paper presents the changes in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula for the twenty-first century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset. The changes are obtained by analyzing the multimodel ensemble from 31 CMIP6 models for the near (2030–2059) and far (2070–2099) future periods, with reference to the base period 1981–2010, under three future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Observations show that the annual temperature is rising at the rate of 0.63 ˚C decade–1 (significant at the 99{\%} confidence level), while annual precipitation is decreasing at the rate of 6.3 mm decade–1 (significant at the 90{\%} confidence level), averaged over Saudi Arabia. For the near (far) future period, the 66{\%} likely ranges of annual-averaged temperature is projected to increase by 1.2–1.9 (1.2–2.1) ˚C, 1.4–2.1 (2.3–3.4) ˚C, and 1.8–2.7 (4.1–5.8) ˚C under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Higher warming is projected in the summer than in the winter, while the Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) is projected to warm more than Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP), by the end of the twenty-first century. For precipitation, a dipole-like pattern is found, with a robust increase in annual mean precipitation over the SAP, and a decrease over the NAP. The 66{\%} likely ranges of annual-averaged precipitation over the whole Arabian Peninsula is projected to change by 5 to 28 (–3 to 29) {\%}, 5 to 31 (4 to 49) {\%}, and 1 to 38 (12 to 107) {\%} under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively, in the near (far) future. Overall, the full ranges in CMIP6 remain higher than the CMIP5 models, which points towards a higher climate sensitivity of some of the CMIP6 climate models to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as compared to the CMIP5. The CMIP6 dataset confirmed previous findings of changes in future climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets. The results presented in this study will be useful for impact studies, and ultimately in devising future policies for adaptation in the region.},
author = {Almazroui, Mansour and Islam, M Nazrul and Saeed, Sajjad and Saeed, Fahad and Ismail, Muhammad},
doi = {10.1007/s41748-020-00183-5},
issn = {2509-9434},
journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
number = {4},
pages = {611--630},
title = {{Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00183-5},
volume = {4},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Almazroui2020,
abstract = {We analyze data of 27 global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the African continent during the twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation changes are computed for two future time slices, 2030–2059 (near term) and 2070–2099 (long term), relative to the present climate (1981–2010), for the entire African continent and its eight subregions. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projected a continuous and significant increase in the mean annual temperature over all of Africa and its eight subregions during the twenty-first century. The mean annual temperature over Africa for the near (long)-term period is projected to increase by 1.2 °C (1.4 °C), 1.5 °C (2.3 °C), and 1.8 °C (4.4 °C) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for weak, moderate, and strong forcing, referenced as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The future warming is not uniform over Africa and varies regionally. By the end of the twenty-first century, the largest rise in mean annual temperature (5.6 °C) is projected over the Sahara, while the smallest rise (3.5 °C) is over Central East Africa, under the strong forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected boreal winter and summer temperature patterns for the twenty-first century show spatial distributions similar to the annual patterns. Uncertainty associated with projected temperature over Africa and its eight subregions increases with time and reaches a maximum by the end of the twenty-first century. On the other hand, the precipitation projections over Africa during the twenty-first century show large spatial variability and seasonal dependency. The northern and southern parts of Africa show a reduction in precipitation, while the central parts of Africa show an increase, in future climates under the three reference scenarios. For the near (long)-term periods, the area-averaged precipitation over Africa is projected to increase by 6.2 (4.8){\%}, 6.8 (8.5){\%}, and 9.5 (15.2){\%} under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The median warming simulated by the CMIP6 model ensemble remains higher than the CMIP5 ensemble over most of Africa, reaching as high as 2.5 °C over some regions, while precipitation shows a mixed spatial pattern.},
author = {Almazroui, Mansour and Saeed, Fahad and Saeed, Sajjad and {Nazrul Islam}, M and Ismail, Muhammad and Klutse, Nana Ama Browne and Siddiqui, Muhammad Haroon},
doi = {10.1007/s41748-020-00161-x},
issn = {2509-9434},
journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
number = {3},
pages = {455--475},
title = {{Projected Change in Temperature and Precipitation Over Africa from CMIP6}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00161-x},
volume = {4},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Almazroui2020b,
abstract = {The latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset was analyzed to examine the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over six South Asian countries during the twenty-first century. The CMIP6 model simulations reveal biases in annual mean temperature and precipitation over South Asia in the present climate. In the historical period, the median of the CMIP6 model ensemble systematically underestimates the annual mean temperature for all the South Asian countries, while a mixed behavior is shown in the case of precipitation. In the future climate, the CMIP6 models display higher sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions over South Asia compared with the CMIP5 models. The multimodel ensemble from 27 CMIP6 models projects a continuous increase in the annual mean temperature over South Asia during the twenty-first century under three future scenarios. The projected temperature shows a large increase (over 6 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario) over the northwestern parts of South Asia, comprising the complex Karakorum and Himalayan mountain ranges. Any large increase in the mean temperature over this region will most likely result in a faster rate of glacier melting. By the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean temperature (uncertainty range) over South Asia is projected to increase by 1.2 (0.7–2.1) °C, 2.1 (1.5–3.3) °C, and 4.3 (3.2–6.6) °C under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to the present (1995–2014) climate. The warming over South Asia is also continuous on the seasonal time scale. The CMIP6 models projected higher warming in the winter season than in the summer over South Asia, which if verified will have repercussions for snow/ice accumulations as well as winter cropping patterns. The annual mean precipitation is also projected to increase over South Asia during the twenty-first century under all scenarios. The rate of change in the projected annual mean precipitation varies considerably between the South Asian countries. By the end of the twenty-first century, the country-averaged annual mean precipitation (uncertainty range) is projected to increase by 17.1 (2.2–49.1){\%} in Bangladesh, 18.9 (−4.9 to 72){\%} in Bhutan, 27.3 (5.3–160.5){\%} in India, 19.5 (−5.9 to 95.6){\%} in Nepal, 26.4 (6.4–159.7){\%} in Pakistan, and 25.1 (−8.5 to 61.0){\%} in Sri Lanka under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The seasonal precipitation projections also shows large variability. The projected winter precipitation reveals a robust increase over the western Himalayas, with a corresponding decrease over the eastern Himalayas. On the other hand, the summer precipitation shows a robust increase over most of the South Asia region, with the largest increase over the arid region of southern Pakistan and adjacent areas of India, under the high-emission scenario. The results presented in this study give detailed insights into CMIP6 model performance over the South Asia region, which could be extended further to develop adaptation strategies, and may act as a guideline document for climate change related policymaking in the region.},
author = {Almazroui, Mansour and Saeed, Sajjad and Saeed, Fahad and Islam, M. Nazrul Nazrul and Ismail, Muhammad and Almazroui et al. and Almazroui, Mansour and Saeed, Sajjad and Saeed, Fahad and Islam, M. Nazrul Nazrul and Ismail, Muhammad and Almazroui et al. and Almazroui, Mansour and Saeed, Sajjad and Saeed, Fahad and Islam, M. Nazrul Nazrul and Ismail, Muhammad},
doi = {10.1007/s41748-020-00157-7},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {25099434},
journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
keywords = {CMIP6,Future changes,Precipitation,Temperature},
number = {2},
pages = {297--320},
publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
title = {{Projections of Precipitation and Temperature over the South Asian Countries in CMIP6}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00157-7},
volume = {4},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Almeida2017,
author = {Almeida, C. T. and Oliveira-J{\'{u}}nior, J. F. and Delgado, R. C. and Cubo, P. and Ramos, M. C.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4831},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {2013--2026},
title = {{Spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature trends throughout the Brazilian Legal Amazon, 1973–2013}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4831},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Alter2015NGeo,
abstract = {Land-use and land-cover changes have significantly modified regional climate patterns around the world1,2 . In particular, the rapid development of large-scale cropland irrigation over the past century has been investigated in relation to possible modification of regional rainfall3–14 . In regional climate simulations of the West African Sahel, hypothetical large-scale irrigation schemes inhibit rainfall over irrigated areasbutenhancerainfall remotely13,14 .However, the simulated influence of large-scale irrigation schemes on precipitation patterns cannot be substantiated without direct comparison to observations15 . Herewe present two complementary analyses: numerical simulations using a regional climate model over an actual, large-scale irrigation scheme in the East African Sahel—the Gezira Scheme—and observational analyses over the same area. The simulations suggest that irrigation inhibits rainfall over the Gezira Scheme and enhances rainfall to the east. Observational analyses of rainfall, temperature and streamflow in the same region support the simulated results. The findings are consistent with a mechanistic framework in which irrigation decreases surface air temperature, causing atmospheric subsidence over the irrigated area and clockwise wind anomalies (in background southwesterly winds) that increase upward vertical motion to the east. We conclude that irrigation development can consistently modify rainfall patterns in and around irrigated areas, warranting fur- ther examination of potential agricultural, hydrologic and economic implications},
annote = {large-scale irrigation can influence weather patterns including precipitation},
author = {Alter, Ross E. and Im, Eun Soon and Eltahir, Elfatih A.B.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2514},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {sep},
number = {10},
pages = {763--767},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Rainfall consistently enhanced around the Gezira Scheme in East Africa due to irrigation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fngeo2514},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Alvarez2017,
author = {Alvarez, Mariano and Vera, Carolina and Kiladis, George},
doi = {10.3390/atmos8120232},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
month = {nov},
number = {12},
pages = {232},
title = {{MJO Modulating the Activity of the Leading Mode of Intraseasonal Variability in South America}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/8/12/232},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Anderegg2016,
abstract = {Drought-induced tree mortality has been observed globally and is expected to increase under climate change scenarios, with large potential consequences for the terrestrial carbon sink. Predicting mortality across species is crucial for assessing the effects of climate extremes on forest community biodiversity, composition, and carbon sequestration. However, the physiological traits associated with elevated risk of mortality in diverse ecosystems remain unknown, although these traits could greatly improve understanding and prediction of tree mortality in forests. We performed a meta-analysis on species' mortality rates across 475 species from 33 studies around the globe to assess which traits determine a species' mortality risk. We found that species-specific mortality anomalies from community mortality rate in a given drought were associated with plant hydraulic traits. Across all species, mortality was best predicted by a low hydraulic safety margin—the difference between typical minimum xylem water potential and that causing xylem dysfunction—and xylem vulnerability to embolism. Angiosperms and gymnosperms experienced roughly equal mortality risks. Our results provide broad support for the hypothesis that hydraulic traits capture key mechanisms determining tree death and highlight that physiological traits can improve vegetation model prediction of tree mortality during climate extremes.},
author = {Anderegg, William R. L. and Klein, Tamir and Bartlett, Megan and Sack, Lawren and Pellegrini, Adam F. A. and Choat, Brendan and Jansen, Steven},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1525678113},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Biodiversity,Carbon cycle,Climate change,Climate extremes,Meta-analysis},
month = {may},
number = {18},
pages = {5024--5029},
pmid = {27091965},
title = {{Meta-analysis reveals that hydraulic traits explain cross-species patterns of drought-induced tree mortality across the globe}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1525678113},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Andreae2004,
author = {Andreae, Meinrat O and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Artaxo, Pedro and Costa, A A and Frank, G P and Longo, K M and Silva-Dias, M A F},
doi = {10.1126/science.1092779},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {feb},
number = {5662},
pages = {1337--1342},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Smoking Rain Clouds over the Amazon}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1092779},
volume = {303},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Andrews2010GRL,
abstract = {Radiative forcing is a useful tool for predicting equilibrium global temperature change. However, it is not so useful for predicting global precipitation changes, as changes in precipitation strongly depend on the climate change mechanism and how it perturbs the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Here a suite of climate model experiments and radiative transfer calculations are used to quantify and assess this dependency across a range of climate change mechanisms. It is shown that the precipitation response can be split into two parts: a fast atmospheric response that strongly correlates with the atmospheric component of radiative forcing, and a slower response to global surface temperature change that is independent of the climate change mechanism, {\&}{\#}8764;2-3{\%} per unit of global surface temperature change. We highlight the precipitation response to black carbon aerosol forcing as falling within this range despite having an equilibrium response that is of opposite sign to the radiative forcing and global temperature change.},
author = {Andrews, Timothy and Forster, Piers M. and Boucher, Olivier and Bellouin, Nicolas and Jones, Andy},
doi = {10.1029/2010GL043991},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {L14701},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl043991},
volume = {37},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Andrews2015,
abstract = {AbstractExperiments with CO2 instantaneously quadrupled and then held constant are used to show that the relationship between the global-mean net heat input to the climate system and the global-mean surface air temperature change is nonlinear in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The nonlinearity is shown to arise from a change in strength of climate feedbacks driven by an evolving pattern of surface warming. In 23 out of the 27 AOGCMs examined, the climate feedback parameter becomes significantly (95{\%} confidence) less negative (i.e., the effective climate sensitivity increases) as time passes. Cloud feedback parameters show the largest changes. In the AOGCM mean, approximately 60{\%} of the change in feedback parameter comes from the tropics (30°N–30°S). An important region involved is the tropical Pacific, where the surface warming intensifies in the east after a few decades. The dependence of climate feedbacks on an evolving p...},
author = {Andrews, Timothy and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Webb, Mark J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00545.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {4},
pages = {1630--1648},
title = {{The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Annamalai2017a,
abstract = {Forecasting monsoon rainfall using dynamical climate models has met with little success, partly due to models' inability to represent the monsoon climatological state accurately. In this article the nature and dynamical causes of their biases are investigated. The approach is to analyze errors in multimodel-mean climatological fields determined from CMIP5, and to carry out sensitivity experiments using a coupled model [the Coupled Model for the Earth Simulator (CFES)] that does represent the monsoon realistically. Precipitation errors in the CMIP5 models persist throughout the annual cycle, with positive (negative) errors occurring over the near-equatorial western Indian Ocean (South Asia). Model errors indicate that an easterly wind stress bias $\Delta$$\tau$ along the equator begins during April–May and peaks during November; the severity of the $\Delta$$\tau$ is that the Wyrtki jets, eastward-flowing equatorial currents during the intermonsoon seasons (April–May and October–November), are almost eliminated. An erroneous east–west SST gradient (warm west and cold east) develops in June. The structure of the model errors indicates that they arise from Bjerknes feedback in the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO). Vertically integrated moisture and moist static energy budgets confirm that warm SST bias in the western EIO anchors moist processes that cause the positive precipitation bias there. In CFES sensitivity experiments in which $\Delta$$\tau$ or warm SST bias over the western EIO is artificially introduced, errors in the EIO are similar to those in the CMIP5 models; moreover, precipitation over South Asia is reduced. An overall implication of these results is that South Asian rainfall errors in CMIP5 models are linked to errors of coupled processes in the western EIO, and in coupled models correct representation of EIO coupled processes (Bjerknes feedback) is a necessary condition for realistic monsoon simulation.},
author = {Annamalai, H. and Taguchi, Bunmei and McCreary, Julian P and Nagura, Motoki and Miyama, Toru},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0573.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {20},
pages = {8159--8178},
title = {{Systematic Errors in South Asian Monsoon Simulation: Importance of Equatorial Indian Ocean Processes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0573.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Apaestegui2014,
abstract = {Abstract. In this paper we explore a speleothem $\delta$18O record from Palestina cave, northwestern Peru, at a site on the eastern side of the Andes cordillera, in the upper Amazon Basin. The $\delta$18O record is interpreted as a proxy for South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) intensity and allows the reconstruction of its variability during the last 1600 years. Two periods of anomalous changes in the climate mean state corresponding to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) periods identified in the Northern Hemisphere are recognized in the record, in which decreased and increased SASM activity, respectively, have been documented. Variations in SASM activity between the MCA and the LIA seem to be larger over the northern part of the continent, suggesting a latitudinal dependence of the MCA footprint. Our results, based on time series, composite and wavelet analyses, suggest that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) plays an relevant role for SASM modulation on multidecadal scales ({\&}sim;65 years), especially during dry periods such as the MCA. Composite analyses, applied to evaluate the influence of the AMO on the Palestina cave $\delta$18O and other $\delta$18O-derived SASM reconstructions, allow insight into the spatial footprints of the AMO over tropical South America and highlight differences between records during key studied periods. This work also reveals that replicating regional climate signals from different sites, and using different proxies is absolutely essential for a comprehensive understanding of past changes in SASM activity.},
author = {Apa{\'{e}}stegui, J. and Cruz, F. W. and Sifeddine, A. and Vuille, M. and Espinoza, J. C. and Guyot, J. L. and Khodri, M. and Strikis, N. and Santos, R. V. and Cheng, H. and Edwards, L. and Carvalho, E. and Santini, W.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-10-1967-2014},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {6},
pages = {1967--1981},
title = {{Hydroclimate variability of the northwestern Amazon Basin near the Andean foothills of Peru related to the South American Monsoon System during the last 1600 years}},
volume = {10},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Araya-Melo2015,
abstract = {Abstract. The sensitivity of the Indian monsoon to the full spectrum of climatic conditions experienced during the Pleistocene is estimated using the climate model HadCM3. The methodology follows a global sensitivity analysis based on the emulator approach of Oakley and O'Hagan (2004) implemented following a three-step strategy: (1) development of an experiment plan, designed to efficiently sample a five-dimensional input space spanning Pleistocene astronomical configurations (three parameters), CO2 concentration and a Northern Hemisphere glaciation index; (2) development, calibration and validation of an emulator of HadCM3 in order to estimate the response of the Indian monsoon over the full input space spanned by the experiment design; and (3) estimation and interpreting of sensitivity diagnostics, including sensitivity measures, in order to synthesise the relative importance of input factors on monsoon dynamics, estimate the phase of the monsoon intensity response with respect to that of insolation, and detect potential non-linear phenomena. By focusing on surface temperature, precipitation, mixed-layer depth and sea-surface temperature over the monsoon region during the summer season (June-July-August-September), we show that precession controls the response of four variables: continental temperature in phase with June to July insolation, high glaciation favouring a late-phase response, sea-surface temperature in phase with May insolation, continental precipitation in phase with July insolation, and mixed-layer depth in antiphase with the latter. CO2 variations control temperature variance with an amplitude similar to that of precession. The effect of glaciation is dominated by the albedo forcing, and its effect on precipitation competes with that of precession. Obliquity is a secondary effect, negligible on most variables except sea-surface temperature. It is also shown that orography forcing reduces the glacial cooling, and even has a positive effect on precipitation. As regards the general methodology, it is shown that the emulator provides a powerful approach, not only to express model sensitivity but also to estimate internal variability and detect anomalous simulations.},
author = {Araya-Melo, P. A. and Crucifix, M. and Bounceur, N.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-11-45-2015},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {45--61},
title = {{Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene}},
url = {https://www.clim-past.net/11/45/2015/},
volume = {11},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Arheimer2017,
abstract = {River flow is mainly controlled by climate, physiography and regulations, but their relative importance over large landmasses is poorly understood. Here we show from computational modelling that hydropower regulation is a key driver of flow regime change in snow-dominated regions and is more important than future climate changes. This implies that climate adaptation needs to include regulation schemes. The natural river regime in snowy regions has low flow when snow is stored and a pronounced peak flow when snow is melting. Global warming and hydropower regulation change this temporal pattern similarly, causing less difference in river flow between seasons. We conclude that in snow-fed rivers globally, the future climate change impact on flow regime is minor compared to regulation downstream of large reservoirs, and of similar magnitude over large landmasses. Our study not only highlights the impact of hydropower production but also that river regulation could be turned into a measure for climate adaptation to maintain biodiversity on floodplains under climate change.},
author = {Arheimer, B. and Donnelly, C. and Lindstr{\"{o}}m, G.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-00092-8},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {1--8},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Regulation of snow-fed rivers affects flow regimes more than climate change}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00092-8},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Arias2012,
author = {Arias, Paola A. and Fu, Rong and Mo, Kingtse},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00140.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {12},
pages = {4258--4274},
title = {{Decadal Variation of Rainfall Seasonality in the North American Monsoon Region and Its Potential Causes}},
volume = {25},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Arias2015a,
author = {Arias, Paola A. and Fu, Rong and Vera, Carolina and Rojas, Maisa},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2533-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {11},
pages = {3183--3203},
title = {{A correlated shortening of the North and South American monsoon seasons in the past few decades}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2533-1},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Armour2013,
abstract = {The sensitivity of global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms of the global climate feedback—the global radiative response per degree of global annualmeansurface temperature change. While the global climate feedback is often assumed to be constant, its value—diagnosed from global climate models—shows substantial time variation under transient warming. Here a reformulation of the global cli- mate feedback in terms of its contributions from regional climate feedbacks is proposed, providing a clear physical insight into this behavior. Using (i) a state-of-the-art global climate model and (ii) a low-order energy balance model, it is shown that the global climate feedback is fundamentally linked to the geographic pattern of regional climate feedbacks and the geographic pattern of surface warming at any given time. Time variation of the global climate feedback arises naturally when the pattern of surface warming evolves, actuating feedbacks of different strengths in different regions. This result has substantial implications for the ability to constrain future climate changes from observations of past and present climate states. The regional climate feedbacks formulation also reveals fundamental biases in a widely used method for diagnosing climate sen- sitivity, feedbacks, and radiative forcing—the regression of the global top-of-atmosphere radiation flux on global surface temperature. Further, it suggests a clear mechanism for the ‘‘efficacies'' of both ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing.},
author = {Armour, Kyle C. and Bitz, Cecilia M. and Roe, Gerard H.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00544.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {13},
pages = {4518--4534},
pmid = {22296712},
title = {{Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks}},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Arnell2016,
abstract = {? 2014, The Author(s).This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 ? 0.5?, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40?{\%} of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187?{\%} over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31?450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between ?9 and +376?{\%}. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.},
author = {Arnell, Nigel W. and Gosling, Simon N.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {387--401},
title = {{The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale}},
volume = {134},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Arnold2015,
author = {Arnold, Nathan P. and Branson, Mark and Kuang, Zhiming and Randall, David A. and Tziperman, Eli},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00494.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {2706--2724},
title = {{MJO Intensification with Warming in the Superparameterized CESM}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00494.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Arnold2013,
author = {Arnold, Nathan P. and Kuang, Zhiming and Tziperman, Eli},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00272.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {988--1001},
title = {{Enhanced MJO-like Variability at High SST}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00272.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Arora2020,
author = {Arora, Vivek K and Katavouta, Anna and Williams, Richard G and Jones, Chris D and Brovkin, Victor and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Schwinger, J{\"{o}}rg and Bopp, Laurent and Boucher, Olivier and Cadule, Patricia and Chamberlain, Matthew A and Christian, James R. and Delire, Christine and Fisher, Rosie A. and Hajima, Tomohiro and Ilyina, Tatiana and Joetzjer, Emilie and Kawamiya, Michio and Koven, Charles D. and Krasting, John P. and Law, Rachel M. and Lawrence, David M. and Lenton, Andrew and Lindsay, Keith and Pongratz, Julia and Raddatz, Thomas and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland and Tachiiri, Kaoru and Tjiputra, Jerry F. and Wiltshire, Andy and Wu, Tongwen and Ziehn, Tilo},
doi = {10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020},
issn = {1726-4189},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {4173--4222},
title = {{Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models}},
url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/4173/2020/},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Arvor2017,
abstract = {Satellite-derived estimates of precipitation are essential to compensate for missing rainfall measurements in regions where the homogeneous and continuous monitoring of rainfall remains challenging due to low density rain gauge networks. The Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) is a relatively new product (released in 2013) but that contains data since 1983, thus enabling long-term rainfall analysis. In this work, we used three decades (1983-2014) of PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall data to characterize precipitation patterns in the southern part of the Amazon basin, which has been drastically impacted in recent decades by anthropogenic activities that exacerbate the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall regimes. We computed metrics for the rainy season (onset date, demise date and duration) on a pixel-to-pixel basis for each year in the time series. We identified significant trends toward a shortening of the rainy season in the southern Amazon, mainly linked to earlier demise dates. This work thus contributes to monitoring possible signs of climate change in the region and to assessing uncertainties in rainfall trends and their potential impacts on human activities and natural ecosystems.},
author = {Arvor, Damien and Funatsu, Beatriz M. and Michot, V{\'{e}}ronique and Dubreui, Vincent},
doi = {10.3390/rs9090889},
issn = {20724292},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
keywords = {Amazon,Demise,Onset,PERSIANN-CDR,Rainy season,Validation},
number = {9},
pages = {889},
title = {{Monitoring rainfall patterns in the southern amazon with PERSIANN-CDR data: Long-term characteristics and trends}},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{As-syakur2014,
author = {As-syakur, Abd. Rahman and Adnyana, I Wayan Sandi and Mahendra, Made Sudiana and Arthana, I Wayan and Merit, I Nyoman and Kasa, I Wayan and Ekayanti, Ni Wayan and Nuarsa, I Wayan and Sunarta, I Nyoman},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3939},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {dec},
number = {15},
pages = {3825--3839},
title = {{Observation of spatial patterns on the rainfall response to ENSO and IOD over Indonesia using TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3939},
volume = {34},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Asadieh2017,
abstract = {Abstract. Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multi-model mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37 {\%} of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 {\%}), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43 {\%} of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 {\%}), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10 {\%} of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 {\%} of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4° warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2° warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncertainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing scenarios, there is high model agreement for increases in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and consequent increases in the freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean, while subtropical arid areas experience a reduction in streamflow.},
author = {Asadieh, Behzad and Krakauer, Nir Y.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-21-5863-2017},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {5863--5874},
title = {{Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/5863/2017/},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ashfaq2020a,
abstract = {We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.},
author = {Ashfaq, Moetasim and Cavazos, Tereza and Reboita, Michelle Sim{\~{o}}es and Torres-Alavez, Jos{\'{e}} Abraham and Im, Eun-Soon and Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola and Alves, Lincoln and Key, Kesondra and Adeniyi, Mojisola O and Tall, Moustapha and Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Mehmood, Shahid and Zafar, Qudsia and Das, Sushant and Diallo, Ismaila and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1463--1488},
title = {{Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2 https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2},
volume = {57},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Asoka2018,
abstract = {Groundwater is a lifeline for millions of people in India, which is affected by the year‐to‐year variability of precipitation amount and characteristics (low and high intensity). Precipitation intensity has been observed and projected to change in India. However, the crucial impact of precipitation intensity on groundwater recharge in India remains unknown. Here we use in situ data from more than 5,800 groundwater wells to show that precipitation intensity is strongly linked with groundwater recharge in India. In the northwest and north central India, the monsoon season groundwater recharge is linked with the low‐intensity precipitation, while in South India high‐intensity precipitation is a major driver of groundwater recharge. Observed long‐term changes in precipitation characteristics show a decline in the low‐intensity rain in the northwest and north central India that are strongly driven by sea surface temperature over the Pacific Ocean. Increases in the high‐intensity precipitation in South India are linked with the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. Our results highlight the importance of precipitation intensity for the monsoon season groundwater recharge in India, which can provide insights to sustainably manage rapidly declining groundwater resources in India.},
author = {Asoka, Akarsh and Wada, Yoshihide and Fishman, Ram and Mishra, Vimal},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078466},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate variability,groundwater intensity,recharge},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5536--5544},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Strong Linkage Between Precipitation Intensity and Monsoon Season Groundwater Recharge in India}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL078466},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Asoka2017,
abstract = {The depletion of groundwater resources threatens food and water security in India. However, the relative influence of groundwater pumping and climate variability on groundwater availability and storage remains unclear. Here we show from analyses of satellite and local well data spanning the past decade that long-term changes in monsoon precipitation are driving groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. We find that groundwater storage has declined in northern India at the rate of 2 cm yr−1 and increased by 1 to 2 cm yr−1 in southern India between 2002 and 2013. We find that a large fraction of the total variability in groundwater storage in north-central and southern India can be explained by changes in precipitation. Groundwater storage variability in northwestern India can be explained predominantly by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is in turn influenced by changes in precipitation. Declining precipitation in northern India is linked to Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognized teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage.},
author = {Asoka, Akarsh and Gleeson, Tom and Wada, Yoshihide and Mishra, Vimal},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2869},
isbn = {1752-0894 1752-0908},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {109--117},
title = {{Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2869},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Atwood2020,
abstract = {We evaluate the longitudinal variation in meridional shifts of the tropical rainbelt in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings using a large suite of coupled climate model simulations. We find that the energetic framework of the zonal mean Hadley cell is generally not useful for characterizing shifts of the rainbelt at regional scales, regardless of the characteristics of the forcing. Forcings with large hemispheric asymmetry such as extratropical volcanic forcing and meltwater forcing give rise to robust zonal mean shifts of the rainbelt, however the direction and magnitude of the shift varies strongly as a function of longitude. Even the Pacific rainband doesn't shift uniformly under any forcing considered. Forcings with weak hemispheric asymmetry such as CO2 and mid‐Holocene forcing give rise to zonal mean shifts that are small or absent, but the rainbelt does shift regionally in coherent ways across models that may have important dynamical consequences.},
author = {Atwood, Alyssa R and Donohoe, Aaron and Battisti, David S and Liu, Xiaojuan and Pausata, Francesco S R},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL088833},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate models,rainfall,tropics,zonal asymmetry},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {e2020GL088833},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Robust Longitudinally Variable Responses of the ITCZ to a Myriad of Climate Forcings}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL088833},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ault2013,
abstract = {The distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here power spectra and power laws ($\beta$) are estimated from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). The significance of the estimates of spectral densities and $\beta$ are tested against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (nonclimate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly time scale. Although tree-ring-based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of $\beta$ calculated from long moisture-sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions) and other types of hydroclimate proxies exceed null expectations. Therefore it may be argued that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are consistent with the null hypothesis and appear unable to generate variance in hydroclimate commensurate with paleoclimate records. Consequently, at decadal-to-multidecadal time scales there is more variability in instrumental and proxy data than in the models, suggesting that the risk of prolonged droughts under climate change may be underestimated by CMIP5 simulations of the future.},
author = {Ault, Toby R. and Cole, Julia E. and Overpeck, Jonathan T. and Pederson, Gregory T. and {St. George}, Scott and Otto-Bliesner, Bette and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Deser, Clara},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00732.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {5863--5878},
title = {{The Continuum of Hydroclimate Variability in Western North America during the Last Millennium}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00732.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Ault2012,
abstract = {We assess the magnitude of decadal to multidecadal$\backslash$n(D2M) variability in Climate Model Intercomparison$\backslash$nProject 5 (CMIP5) simulations that will be used to$\backslash$nunderstand, and plan for, climate change as part of$\backslash$nthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 5th$\backslash$nAssessment Report. Model performance on D2M$\backslash$ntimescales is evaluated using metrics designed to$\backslash$ncharacterize the relative and absolute magnitude of$\backslash$nvariability at these frequencies. In observational$\backslash$ndata, we find that between 10{\%} and 35{\%} of the$\backslash$ntotal variance occurs on D2M timescales. Regions$\backslash$ncharacterized by the high end of this range include$\backslash$nAfrica, Australia, western North America, and the$\backslash$nAmazon region of South America. In these areas D2M$\backslash$nfluctuations are especially prominent and linked to$\backslash$nprolonged drought. D2M fluctuations account for$\backslash$nconsiderably less of the total variance (between 5{\%}$\backslash$nand 15{\%}) in the CMIP5 archive of historical$\backslash$n(1850{\&}{\#}8211;2005) simulations. The discrepancy$\backslash$nbetween observation and model based estimates of D2M$\backslash$nprominence reflects two features of the CMIP5$\backslash$narchive. First, interannual components of$\backslash$nvariability are generally too energetic. Second,$\backslash$ndecadal components are too weak in several key$\backslash$nregions. Our findings imply that projections of the$\backslash$nfuture lack sufficient decadal variability,$\backslash$npresenting a limited view of prolonged drought and$\backslash$npluvial risk.},
author = {Ault, T. R. and Cole, J. E. and {St. George}, S.},
doi = {10.1029/2012GL053424},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {L21705},
title = {{The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012GL053424},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Ault2014a,
abstract = {AbstractProjected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50{\%}; the analysis herein suggests that the risk is at least 80{\%}, and may be higher than 90{\%} in certain areas. The likelihood of longer-lived events ({\textgreater}35 yr) is between 20{\%} and 50{\%}, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5{\%}?10{\%}). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought?worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years?would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.},
author = {Ault, Toby R. and Cole, Julia E. and Overpeck, Jonathan T. and Pederson, Gregory T. and Meko, David M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {20},
pages = {7529--7549},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Assessing the Risk of Persistent Drought Using Climate Model Simulations and Paleoclimate Data}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Ayantika9999,
abstract = {There is growing evidence of the influence of northern hemisphere (NH) anthropogenic aerosols (AA) on the observed regional climate change over Asia in the recent few decades. While the radiative effects of AA can regionally offset the greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, their combined impacts on the South Asian monsoon (SAM) are not adequately understood. The present study examines the individual and combined effects of GHG and AA forcing on the SAM precipitation response, based on numerical experiments conducted using the IITM Earth System Model version2 (IITM-ESMv2). We performed the following three sets of 50-year simulations based on the CMIP6 forcing (a) AER: where the atmospheric CO2 concentration is fixed to the pre-industrial level (i.e., year 1850) and AA levels correspond to the year 2005 (b) GHG: CO2 concentration corresponds to the year 2005 and AA levels correspond to the year 1850 (c) COMB: Both CO2 concentration and AA levels correspond to the year 2005. The three experiments are compared against the pre-industrial control (PICTL) run of the IITM-ESMv2. An intensification of SAM precipitation is noted in GHG relative to PICTL, whereas AER exhibits a decrease of SAM precipitation and weakening of monsoon circulation in response to the AA forcing. The results show that absorption of shortwave radiation above the atmospheric boundary layer over the Asian region creates surface radiation deficit and stabilizes the lower troposphere, leading to a slowdown of monsoonal winds, reduced evaporation over the Indian Ocean and decreased moisture convergence over South and Southeast Asia. A striking finding from our analysis is the reinforced suppression of SAM precipitation and organized monsoon convection in COMB, which results from an enhanced inter-hemispheric asymmetry in radiative forcing under the combined influence of the elevated CO2 and AA forcing. Furthermore, both the AER and COMB experiments reveal a widespread suppression of large-scale organized monsoon convective activity on sub-seasonal time-scales over South and Southeast Asia.},
author = {Ayantika, Dey Choudhury and Krishnan, Raghavan and Singh, Manmeet and Swapna, P and Sandeep, N and Prajeesh, A G and Vellore, Ramesh},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05551-5},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {mar},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1643--1662},
title = {{Understanding the combined effects of global warming and anthropogenic aerosol forcing on the South Asian monsoon}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05551-5 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05551-5},
volume = {56},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Aygun2019,
abstract = {Cold region hydrology is conditioned by distinct cryospheric and hydrological processes. While snowmelt is the main contributor to both surface and subsurface flows, seasonally frozen soil also influences the partition of meltwater and rain between these flows. Cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have been shown to be sensitive to climate change. Assessing the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of this region is therefore crucial, as it supports a significant amount of population relying on hydrological services and subjected to changing hydrological risks. We present an exhaustive review of the literature on historical and projected future changes on cold region hydrology in response to climate change. Changes in snow, soil, and streamflow key metrics were investigated and summarized at the hemispheric scale, down to the basin scale. We found substantial evidence of both historical and projected changes in the reviewed hydrological metrics. These metrics were shown to display different sensitivities to climate change, depending on the cold season temperature regime of a given region. Given the historical and projected future warming during the 21st century, the most drastic changes were found to be occurring over regions with near-freezing air temperatures. Colder regions, on the other hand, were found to be comparatively less sensitive to climate change. The complex interactions between the snow and soil metrics resulted in either colder or warmer soils, which led to increasing or decreasing frost depths, influencing the partitioning rates between the surface and subsurface flows. The most consistent and salient hydrological responses to both historical and projected climate change were an earlier occurrence of snowmelt floods, an overall increase in water availability and streamflow during winter, and a decrease in water availability and streamflow during the warm season, which calls for renewed assessments of existing water supply and flood risk management strategies.},
author = {Ayg{\"{u}}n, Okan and Kinnard, Christophe and Campeau, St{\'{e}}phane},
doi = {10.1177/0309133319878123},
issn = {0309-1333},
journal = {Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment},
month = {oct},
number = {3},
pages = {338--375},
publisher = {SAGE Publications Ltd},
title = {{Impacts of climate change on the hydrology of northern midlatitude cold regions}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133319878123},
volume = {44},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ayliffe2013,
abstract = {Recent studies have proposed that millennial-scale reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere circulation drives increased upwelling in the Southern Ocean, leading to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ice age terminations. Southward migration of the global monsoon is thought to link the hemispheres during deglaciation, but vital evidence from the southern sector of the vast Australasian monsoon system is yet to emerge. Here we present a 230thorium-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope record of millennial-scale changes in Australian-Indonesian monsoon rainfall over the last 31,000 years. The record shows that abrupt southward shifts of the Australian-Indonesian monsoon were synchronous with North Atlantic cold intervals 17,600-11,500 years ago. The most prominent southward shift occurred in lock-step with Heinrich Stadial 1 (17,600-14,600 years ago), and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our findings show that millennial-scale climate change was transmitted rapidly across Australasia and lend support to the idea that the 3,000-year-long Heinrich 1 interval could have been critical in driving the last deglaciation.},
author = {Ayliffe, Linda K. and Gagan, Michael K. and Zhao, Jian-xin Xin and Drysdale, Russell N. and Hellstrom, John C. and Hantoro, Wahyoe S. and Griffiths, Michael L. and Scott-Gagan, Heather and Pierre, Emma St and Cowley, Joan A. and Suwargadi, Bambang W.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms3908},
isbn = {2041-1723 (Electronic)$\backslash$r2041-1723 (Linking)},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
pages = {2908},
pmid = {24309539},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.},
title = {{Rapid interhemispheric climate links via the Australasian monsoon during the last deglaciation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms3908 http://10.0.4.14/ncomms3908 https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms3908{\#}supplementary-information},
volume = {4},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Bodai2020,
abstract = {We study the teleconnection between El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon (IM) in large ensemble simulations, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). We characterize ENSO by the June–August Ni{\~{n}}o-3 box-average SST and the IM by the June–September average precipitation over India, and define their teleconnection in a changing climate as an ensemble-wise correlation. To test robustness, we also consider somewhat different variables that can characterize ENSO and the IM. We utilize ensembles converged to the system's snapshot attractor for analyzing possible changes in the teleconnection . Our main finding is that the teleconnection strength is typically increasing on the long term in view of appropriately revised ensemble-wise indices. Indices involving a more western part of the Pacific reveal, furthermore, a short-term but rather strong increase in strength followed by some decrease at the turn of the century. Using the station-based Southern Oscillation index (SOI) as opposed to area-based indices leads to the identification of somewhat more erratic trends, but the turn-of-the-century “bump” is well detectable with it. All this is in contrast, if not in contradiction, to the discussion in the literature of a weakening teleconnection in the late twentieth century. We show here that this discrepancy can be due to any of three reasons: 1) ensemble-wise and temporal correlation coefficients used in the literature are different quantities; 2) the temporal moving correlation has a high statistical variability but possibly also persistence; or 3) MPI-ESM does not represent the Earth system faithfully.},
author = {B{\'{o}}dai, Tam{\'{a}}s and Dr{\'{o}}tos, G{\'{a}}bor and Herein, M{\'{a}}ty{\'{a}}s and Lunkeit, Frank and Lucarini, Valerio},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0341.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2163--2182},
title = {{The Forced Response of the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation–Indian Monsoon Teleconnection in Ensembles of Earth System Models}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0341.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Bador2018JClim,
annote = {projected increase in precipitation extremes strongest in wet regions and seasons and simulated responses dependent on physics shared across models},
author = {Bador, Margot and Donat, Markus G. and Geoffroy, Olivier and Alexander, Lisa V.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0683.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6505--6525},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Assessing the Robustness of Future Extreme Precipitation Intensification in the CMIP5 Ensemble}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0683.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bador9999,
abstract = {Abstract Finer grids in global climate models could lead to an improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes. We assess the influence on model performance of increasing spatial resolution by evaluating pairs of high- and low-resolution forced atmospheric simulations from six global climate models (generally the latest CMIP6 version) on a common 1°x1° grid. The differences in tuning between the lower and higher resolution versions are as limited as possible, which allows the influence of higher resolution to be assessed exclusively. We focus on the 1985-2014 climatology of annual extremes of daily precipitation over global land, and models are compared to observations from different sources (i.e. in situ-based and satellite-based) to enable consideration of observational uncertainty. Finally, we address regional features of model performance based on four indices characterizing different aspects of precipitation extremes. Our analysis highlights good agreement between models that precipitation extremes are more intense at higher resolution. We find that the spread among observations is substantial and can be as large as inter-model differences, which makes the quantitative evaluation of model performance difficult. However, consistently across the four precipitation extremes indices that we investigate, models often show lower skill at higher resolution compared to their corresponding lower resolution version. Our findings suggest that increasing spatial resolution alone is not sufficient to obtain a systematic improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes, and other improvements (e.g. physics, tuning) may be required.},
author = {Bador, Margot and Bo{\'{e}}, Julien and Terray, Laurent and Alexander, Lisa V. and Baker, Alexander and Bellucci, Alessio and Haarsma, Rein and Koenigk, Torben and Moine, Marie‐Pierre M.‐P. Marie‐Pierre Pierre and Lohmann, Katja and Putrasahan, Dian A. and Roberts, Chris and Roberts, Malcolm and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Schiemann, Reinhard and Seddon, Jon and Senan, Retish and Valcke, Sophie and Vanniere, Benoit and Boe', J. and Terray, Laurent and Alexander, Lisa V. and Bellucci, Alessio and Haarsma, Rein and Koenigk, Torben and Moine, Marie‐Pierre M.‐P. Marie‐Pierre Pierre and Lohmann, Katja and Putrasahan, Dian A. and Roberts, Chris and Roberts, Malcolm and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Schiemann, Reinhard and Seddon, Jon and Senan, Retish and Valcke, Sophie and Vanniere, Benoit and Bo{\'{e}} and J. and Terray, Laurent and Alexander, Lisa V. and Bellucci, Alessio and Haarsma, Rein and Koenigk, Torben and Moine, Marie‐Pierre M.‐P. Marie‐Pierre Pierre and Lohmann, Katja and Putrasahan, Dian A. and Roberts, Chris and Roberts, Malcolm and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Schiemann, Reinhard and Seddon, Jon and Senan, Retish and Valcke, Sophie and Vanniere, Benoit},
doi = {10.1029/2019jd032184},
isbn = {0000000339766},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {global climate  for CMIP6 and HighResMIP,multimodel and multiproduct of observations framew,performance of the  sensitivity to atmospheric spatial },
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {e2019JD032184},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Impact of higher spatial atmospheric resolution on precipitation extremes over land in global climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032184},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Baker2018,
annote = {direct CO2 effect on extreme tropical precipitation independent of global warming (due to changes in land sea contrast)},
author = {Baker, Hugh S and Millar, Richard J and Karoly, David J and Beyerle, Urs and Guillod, Benoit P. and Mitchell, Dann and Shiogama, Hideo and Sparrow, Sarah and Woollings, Tim and Allen, Myles R},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0190-1},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {604--608},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0190-1 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0190-1},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bakker2016b,
abstract = {The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090--2100, the AMOC weakens by 18{\%} [-3{\%}, -34{\%}; 90{\%} probability] in an intermediate greenhouse-gas mitigation scenario and by 37{\%} [-15{\%}, -65{\%}] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to -74{\%} [+4{\%}, -100{\%}] by 2290--2300, with a 44{\%} likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.},
author = {Bakker, P. and Schmittner, A. and Lenaerts, J. T. M. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Bi, D. and van den Broeke, M. R. and Chan, W.-L. and Hu, A. and Beadling, R. L. and Marsland, S. J. and Mernild, S. H. and Saenko, O. A. and Swingedouw, D. and Sullivan, A. and Yin, J.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL070457},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,climate change,general circulation model},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {12252--12260},
title = {{Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL070457},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bala2010,
author = {Bala, Govindasamy and Caldeira, K. and Nemani, R.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-009-0583-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {2-3},
pages = {423--434},
title = {{Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle}},
volume = {35},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Bala2008,
abstract = {The rapidly rising CO(2) level in the atmosphere has led to proposals of climate stabilization by "geoengineering" schemes that would mitigate climate change by intentionally reducing solar radiation incident on Earth's surface. In this article we address the impact of these climate stabilization schemes on the global hydrological cycle. By using equilibrium climate simulations, we show that insolation reductions sufficient to offset global-scale temperature increases lead to a decrease in global mean precipitation. This occurs because solar forcing is more effective in driving changes in global mean evaporation than is CO(2) forcing of a similar magnitude. In the model used here, the hydrological sensitivity, defined as the percentage change in global mean precipitation per degree warming, is 2.4{\%} K(-1) for solar forcing, but only 1.5{\%} K(-1) for CO(2) forcing. Although other models and the climate system itself may differ quantitatively from this result, the conclusion can be understood based on simple considerations of the surface energy budget and thus is likely to be robust. For the same surface temperature change, insolation changes result in relatively larger changes in net radiative fluxes at the surface; these are compensated by larger changes in the sum of latent and sensible heat fluxes. Hence, the hydrological cycle is more sensitive to temperature adjustment by changes in insolation than by changes in greenhouse gases. This implies that an alteration in solar forcing might offset temperature changes or hydrological changes from greenhouse warming, but could not cancel both at once.},
author = {Bala, G. and Duffy, P. B. and Taylor, K. E.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0711648105},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {jun},
number = {22},
pages = {7664--7669},
title = {{Impact of geoengineering schemes on the global hydrological cycle}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0711648105},
volume = {105},
year = {2008}
}
@article{BALME2006,
abstract = {R{\'{e}}sum{\'{e}} Le d{\'{e}}ficit de pluie des 30 derni{\`{e}}res ann{\'{e}}es au Sahel est le plus souvent analys{\'{e}} de mani{\`{e}}re globale, ce qui ne permet pas d'en {\'{e}}tudier l'impact sur le cycle hydrologique. L'{\'{e}}tude conjointe de donn{\'{e}}es fournies par le Centre R{\'{e}}gional AGRHYMET et d'un jeu de donn{\'{e}}es haute r{\'{e}}solution collect{\'{e}}es dans le cadre de l'observatoire AMMA-CATCH Niger permet d'analyser ici quels sont les facteurs les plus marquants qui diff{\'{e}}rencient ann{\'{e}}es humides et ann{\'{e}}es s{\`{e}}ches au Sahel. Cette analyse explore la variabilit{\'{e}} des pluies {\`{a}} diff{\'{e}}rentes {\'{e}}chelles temporelles pour des ann{\'{e}}es s{\`{e}}ches et humides: {\`{a}} l'{\'{e}}chelle annuelle, {\`{a}} travers la sensibilit{\'{e}} de l'indice pluviom{\'{e}}trique {\`{a}} la taille du domaine consid{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}; {\`{a}} l'{\'{e}}chelle de l'{\'{e}}v{\'{e}}nement, par la variation de deux param{\`{e}}tres d{\'{e}}finissant le r{\'{e}}gime pluviom{\'{e}}trique ({\`{a}} savoir la hauteur moyenne de pluie par {\'{e}}v{\'{e}}nement et le nombre moyen d'{\'{e}}v{\'{e}}nements par jour); et au pas de temps inf{\'{e}}rieur, en {\'{e}}tudiant les distributions des intensit{\'{e}}s de pluie.},
author = {Balme, Maud and Lebel, Thierry and Amani, Abou},
doi = {10.1623/hysj.51.2.254},
issn = {0262-6667},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
keywords = {Sahel,West African Monsoon,drought,mousson ouest-africaine,rain events,s{\'{e}}cheresse,{\'{e}}v{\'{e}}nements pluvieux},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {254--271},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis Group},
title = {{Ann{\'{e}}es s{\`{e}}ches et ann{\'{e}}es humides au Sahel: quo vadimus?}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1623/hysj.51.2.254},
volume = {51},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Bamba2015,
abstract = {The decadal variability of rainfall and vegetation over West Africa have been studied over the last three decades, 1981-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 denoted as 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Climate Research Unit (CRU) monthly precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), all covering the period 1981-2010 have been used. This study aimed to assess the changes in the land surface condition and the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall over West Africa region. The relationship between rainfall and vegetation indices over this region was determined using Pearson's correlation. Also, the decadal comparison between rainfall and NDVI over the region was based on the significant t-test and the Pearson's correlation. Results showed that significant return to wet conditions is observed between decade 1980s and decade 1990s over West Africa, and also during decade 2000s with the exception of central Benin and the western Nigeria. Meanwhile, a regreening of the central Sahel and Sudano-Sahel regions is noted. From 1990s to 2000s, this regreening belt is located in the South and the coastal areas: the Guinea Coast, Sudano-Guinea and western Sahel regions. A northward displacement of this re-greening belt is also detected. Thus, a linear relationship occurs between rainfall and NDVI in the Sudanian savannah region, but it is not the case in the rest of West Africa. This may suggest that the re-growth of vegetation in the Sudanian savannah region may be linked to rainfall supplies. Therefore, re-greening over Sahel region in 1990s is related to rainfall recovery. However, this re-greening was not sustained in the decade 2000s due to a slight decrease in rainfall.},
author = {Bamba, Adama and Dieppois, Bastien and Konar{\'{e}}, Abdourahamane and Pellarin, Thierry and Balogun, Ahmed and Dessay, Nadine and Kamagat{\'{e}}, Bamory and Savan{\'{e}}, Issiaka and Di{\'{e}}dhiou, Arona},
doi = {10.4236/acs.2015.54028},
issn = {2160-0414},
journal = {Atmospheric and Climate Sciences},
number = {4},
pages = {367--379},
publisher = {Scientific Research Publishing},
title = {{Changes in Vegetation and Rainfall over West Africa during the Last Three Decades (1981–2010)}},
url = {http://www.scirp.org/journal/doi.aspx?DOI=10.4236/acs.2015.54028},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Ban2015,
abstract = {Climate models project that heavy precipitation events intensify with climate change. It is generally accepted that extreme day-long events will increase at a rate of about 6–7{\%} per degree warming, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, recent studies suggest that subdaily (e.g., hourly) precipitation extremes may increase at about twice this rate. Conventional climate models are not suited to assess such events, due to the limited spatial resolution and the need to parametrize convective precipitation (i.e., thunderstorms and rain showers). Here we employ a convection-resolving model using a horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km across an extended region covering the Alps and its larger-scale surrounding from northern Italy to northern Germany. Consistent with previous results, projections using a Representative Concentration Pathways version 8.5 greenhouse gas scenario reveal a significant decrease of mean summer precipitation. However, unlike previous studies, we find that both extreme day-long and hour-long precipitation events asymptotically intensify with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Differences to previous studies might be due to the model or region considered, but we also show that it is inconsistent to extrapolate from present-day precipitation scaling into the future.},
author = {Ban, Nikolina and Schmidli, Juerg and Sch{\"{a}}r, Christoph},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL062588},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {4},
pages = {1165--1172},
title = {{Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?}},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bao_2017,
abstract = {Models and physical reasoning predict that extreme precip- itation will increase in a warmer climate due to increased atmospheric humidity1–3 . Observational tests using regression analysis have reported a puzzling variety of apparent scaling ratesincludingstrongratesinmidlatitudelocationsbutweakor negative rates in the tropics4,5 . Here we analyse daily extreme precipitation events in several Australian cities to show that temporary local cooling associated with extreme events and associated synoptic conditions reduces these apparent scaling rates, especially in warmer climatic conditions. A regional climate projection ensemble6 for Australia, which implicitly includes these effects, accurately and robustly reproduces the observed apparent scaling throughout the continent for daily precipitation extremes. Projections from the same model show future daily extremes increasing at rates faster than those inferred from observed scaling. The strongest extremes (99.9th percentile events) scale significantly faster than near-surface water vapour, between 5.7–15{\%}◦C−1 depending on model details. This scaling rate is highly correlated with the change in water vapour, implying a trade-off between a more arid future climate or one with strong increases in extreme precipitation. These conclusions are likely to generalize to other regions.},
annote = {accounting for local cooling {\&} synoptic conditions during storms, super-Clausius Clapeyron scaling of future precipitation extremes found},
author = {Bao, Jiawei and Sherwood, Steven C. and Alexander, Lisa V. and Evans, Jason P.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3201},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {128--132},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fnclimate3201},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bao2018JAMES,
abstract = {Abstract The impacts of convective self‐aggregation on extreme precipitation and updraft velocity are investigated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model in the idealized setting of radiative‐convective equilibrium with a 3‐km horizontal resolution. Aggregated and unaggregated states are achieved by conducting simulations with fully interactive and fixed radiation, respectively. We find that convective self‐aggregation has a negligible impact on extreme instantaneous precipitation but weakens the extreme updrafts and condensation, indicating a negative dynamical contribution from aggregation to extreme instantaneous precipitation. However, this is balanced by higher precipitation efficiency to maintain the same extreme instantaneous precipitation. This balance occurs because updrafts decrease mainly above the freezing level, suppressing graupel production. As graupel has a longer residence time than rain, less graupel formation with aggregation implies enhanced instantaneous local precipitation efficiency. Peak updraft velocity scales with the vertical integral of buoyancy, measured with respect to the local prestorm environment. This local environment is warmer and moister at middle and high levels when convection is aggregated compared to when it is unaggregated, reducing the buoyancy and updraft velocity. Unlike extreme instantaneous precipitation, extreme daily precipitation is stronger in aggregated states, as self‐aggregation localizes and sustains updrafts and condensation in relatively fixed locations. Our results imply that extreme instantaneous precipitation is more sensitive to microphysical processes while extreme daily precipitation is more linked to the degree of aggregation.},
author = {Bao, Jiawei and Sherwood, Steven C.},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001503},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {convective updraft  efficiency,radiative-convective equilibrium,self-aggregation},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {19--33},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The Role of Convective Self‐Aggregation in Extreme Instantaneous Versus Daily Precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029{\%}2F2018ms001503 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018MS001503},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Barbero_2017,
abstract = {Although it has been documented that daily precipitation extremes$\backslash$nare increasing worldwide, faster increases may be expected for sub-daily$\backslash$nextremes. Here, after a careful quality control procedure, we compared$\backslash$ntrends in hourly and daily precipitation extremes using a large network$\backslash$nof stations across the United-States (US) within the 1950?2011 period.$\backslash$nA greater number of significant increasing trends in annual and seasonal$\backslash$nmaximum precipitation were detected from daily extremes, with the$\backslash$nprimary exception of wintertime. Our results also show that the mean$\backslash$npercentage change in annual maximum daily precipitation across the$\backslash$nUS per global warming degree is {\~{}}6.9{\%} �C?1 (in agreement with the$\backslash$nClausius-Clapeyron rate) while lower sensitivities were observed$\backslash$nfor hourly extremes, suggesting that changes in the magnitude of$\backslash$nsub-daily extremes in response to global warming emerge more slowly$\backslash$nthan those for daily extremes in the climate record.},
annote = {precipitation intensification with warming in USA more detectable for daily than hourly observations},
author = {Barbero, R. and Fowler, H. J. and Lenderink, G. and Blenkinsop, S.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071917},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,hourly  s,trends},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {974--983},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Is the intensification of precipitation extremes with global warming better detected at hourly than daily resolutions?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2016gl071917},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Barbero2019,
abstract = {Climatological features of observed annual maximum hourly precipitation have not been documented systematically compared to those on daily timescales due to observational limitations. Drawing from a quality-controlled database of hourly records sampling different climatic regions including the United States, Australia, the British Isles, Japan, India and peninsular Malaysia over the 1950–2016 period, we examined climatological features of annual maximum precipitation (AMP) across timescales ranging from 1-hr (AMP1−hr) to 24-hr (AMP24−hr). Our analysis reveals strong relations between the magnitude of AMP and the climatological average annual precipitation (AAP), with geographic variations in the magnitude of AMP24−hr across topographic gradients not evident in AMP1−hr. Most AMP1−hr are found to be embedded within short-duration storms ({\textgreater}70{\%} of AMP1−hr are embedded within 1–5 h storms), especially in regions with low AAP and in the tropical zone. Likewise, most AMP24−hr are found to be the accumulation of a very limited number of wet hours in the 24-h period ({\textgreater}80{\%} of AMP24−hr are due to storms lasting {\textless}15 h) across many parts of the sampled regions, highlighting the added-value of hourly data in estimating the actual precipitation intensities. The seasonal distribution of AMP may change across different timescales at a specific location, reflecting the prevalence of different seasonal triggering mechanisms. We also find that most AMP1−hr occur preferentially in late afternoon to late evening, slightly later than the usual mid-to-late afternoon peak in the mean precipitation. Finally, analysis of atmospheric instability, realized through the convection available potential energy (CAPE), reveals that CAPE is higher before AMP1−hr with respect to AMP24−hr, although the response of precipitation intensity seems to saturate at higher CAPE levels, a feature evident both in the tropical and extratropical zones. This study provides insights on climatological features of hourly precipitation extremes and how they contrast with the daily extremes examined in most studies.},
author = {Barbero, Renaud and Fowler, Hayley J. and Blenkinsop, Stephen and Westra, Seth and Moron, Vincent and Lewis, Elizabeth and Chan, Steven and Lenderink, Geert and Kendon, Elizabeth and Guerreiro, Selma and Li, Xiao-Feng and Villalobos, Roberto and Ali, Haider and Mishra, Vimal},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2019.100219},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {CAPE,Daily Diurnal cycle,Hourly Precipitation duration,Precipitation intensity,Seasonal cycle},
pages = {100219},
title = {{A synthesis of hourly and daily precipitation extremes in different climatic regions}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209471930091X},
volume = {26},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Barcikowska2018b,
abstract = {Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2 ∘C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25∘ not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2 ∘C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5 ∘C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east of Newfoundland, experience an increase in the mean as well as daily and sub-daily precipitation, wind extremes and storminess, suggesting an important influence of increasing storm activity in these regions in response to global warming.},
author = {Barcikowska, Monika J. and Weaver, Scott J. and Feser, Frauke and Russo, Simone and Schenk, Frederik and Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} A. and Wehner, Michael F. and Zahn, Matthias},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-679-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {679--699},
title = {{Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios}},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Barichivich2018,
abstract = {The Amazon basin is the largest watershed on Earth. Although the variability of the Amazon hydrological cycle has been increasing since the late 1990s, its underlying causes have remained elusive. We use water levels in the Amazon River to quantify changes in extreme events and then analyze their cause. Despite continuing research emphasis on droughts, the largest change over recent decades is a marked increase in very severe floods. Increased flooding is linked to a strengthening of the Walker circulation, resulting from strong tropical Atlantic warming and tropical Pacific cooling. Atlantic warming due to combined anthropogenic and natural factors has contributed to enhance the change in atmospheric circulation. Whether this anomalous increase in flooding will last depends on the evolution of the tropical inter-ocean temperature difference.},
author = {Barichivich, Jonathan and Gloor, Emanuel and Peylin, Philippe and Brienen, Roel J. W. and Sch{\"{o}}ngart, Jochen and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Pattnayak, Kanhu C.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aat8785},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {eaat8785},
title = {{Recent intensification of Amazon flooding extremes driven by strengthened Walker circulation}},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aat8785},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Barkhordarian2018GRL,
abstract = {A decline in dry season precipitation over tropical South America has a large impact on ecosystem health of the region. Results here indicate that the magnitude of negative trends in dry season precipitation in the past decades exceeds the estimated range of trends due to natural variability of the climate system defined in both the preindustrial climate and during the 850–1850 millennium. The observed drying is associated with an increase in vapor pressure deficit. The univariate detection analysis shows that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing has a systematic influence in negative 30‐year trends of precipitation ending in 1998 and later on. The bivariate attribution analysis demonstrates that forcing by elevated GHG levels and land‐use change are attributed as key causes for the observed drying during 1983–2012 over the southern Amazonia and central Brazil. We further show that the effect of GS signal (GHG and sulfate aerosols) based on RCP4.5 scenario already has a detectable influence in the observed drying. Thus, we suggest that the recently observed “drier dry season” is a feature which will continue and intensify in the course of unfolding anthropogenic climate change. Such change could have profound societal and ecosystem impacts over the region.},
annote = {drier dry season over tropical South America linked to GHG forcing and land use changes and is likely to intensify in future},
author = {Barkhordarian, Armineh and von Storch, Hans and Behrangi, Ali and Loikith, Paul C. and Mechoso, Carlos R. and Detzer, Judah},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078041},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {6262--6271},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Simultaneous Regional Detection of Land-Use Changes and Elevated GHG Levels: The Case of Spring Precipitation in Tropical South America}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029{\%}2F2018gl078041},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Barlow2019a,
abstract = {This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than 1 week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating the model dynamics associated with extremes.},
author = {Barlow, Mathew and Gutowski, William J. and Gyakum, John R. and Katz, Richard W. and Lim, Young Kwon and Schumacher, Russ S. and Wehner, Michael F. and Agel, Laurie and Bosilovich, Michael and Collow, Allison and Gershunov, Alexander and Grotjahn, Richard and Leung, Ruby and Milrad, Shawn and Min, Seung Ki},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04958-z},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {11},
pages = {6835--6875},
title = {{North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04958-z},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Francis2012GRL,
abstract = {Previous studies have suggested that Arctic amplification has caused planetary‐scale waves to elongate meridionally and slow down, resulting in more frequent blocking patterns and extreme weather. Here trends in the meridional extent of atmospheric waves over North America and the North Atlantic are investigated in three reanalyses, and it is demonstrated that previously reported positive trends are likely an artifact of the methodology. No significant decrease in planetary‐scale wave phase speeds are found except in October‐November‐December, but this trend is sensitive to the analysis parameters. Moreover, the frequency of blocking occurrence exhibits no significant increase in any season in any of the three reanalyses, further supporting the lack of trends in wave speed and meridional extent. This work highlights that observed trends in midlatitude weather patterns are complex and likely not simply understood in terms of Arctic amplification alone.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50880},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = { amplification,Rossby waves,blocking,sea ice},
month = {mar},
number = {17},
pages = {4734--4739},
pmid = {24439530},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051000},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{bdmw14,
abstract = {Observed blocking trends are diagnosed to test the hypothesis that recent Arctic warming and sea ice loss has increased the likelihood of blocking over the Northern Hemisphere. To ensure robust results, we diagnose blocking using three unique blocking identification methods from the literature, each applied to four different reanalyses. No clear hemispheric increase in blocking is found for any blocking index, and while seasonal increases and decreases are found for specific isolated regions and time periods, there is no instance where all three methods agree on a robust trend. Blocking is shown to exhibit large interannual and decadal variability, highlighting the difficulty in separating any potentially forced response from natural variability.},
author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne and Masato, Giacomo and Woollings, Tim},
doi = {10.1002/2013GL058745},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Arctic amplification,observed trends,sea ice loss},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {638--644},
pmid = {22519510},
title = {{Exploring recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058745 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013GL058745},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Barreiro2014a,
abstract = {This study uses experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to address the role of the oceans and the effect of land–atmosphere coupling on the predictability of summertime rainfall over northern Argentina focusing on interdecadal time scales during 1901–2006. Ensembles of experiments where the AGCM is forced with historical sea surface temperature (SST) in the global, Pacific and tropical-North Atlantic domains are used. The role of land–atmosphere interaction is assessed comparing the output of simulations with active and climatological soil moisture. A maximum covariance analysis between precipitation and SST reveals the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the equatorial–tropical South Atlantic on rainfall over northern Argentina. Model simulations further show that while the dominant influence comes from the Pacific basin, the Atlantic influence can explain a large transition from dry to wet decades over northern Argentina during the beginning of the 1970s. Analysis of anomalies before and after the transition reveals an upper level anticyclonic circulation off the Patagonian coast with barotropic structure. This circulation enhances the moisture transport and convergence in northern Argentina and, together with enhanced evaporation, increased the rainfall after 1970. The SST pattern is dominated by cold conditions in the equatorial Atlantic and warm eastern Pacific and South Atlantic. We also found that land–atmosphere interaction leads to a representation of the long term rainfall evolution over northern Argentina that is closer to the observed one. Moreover, it leads to a smaller dispersion among ensemble members, thus resulting in a larger signal-to-noise ratio.},
author = {Barreiro, Marcelo and D{\'{i}}az, Nicolas and Renom, Madeleine},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2088-6},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {7},
pages = {1733--1753},
title = {{Role of the global oceans and land–atmosphere interaction on summertime interdecadal variability over northern Argentina}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2088-6},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Barreiro2019,
author = {Barreiro, Marcelo and Sitz, Lina and de Mello, Santiago and Franco, Ramon Fuentes and Renom, Madeleine and Farneti, Riccardo},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5865},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {1104--1116},
title = {{Modelling the role of Atlantic air–sea interaction in the impact of Madden–Julian Oscillation on South American climate}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5865},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@book{Barry2020,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Barry, R.G. and Gan, T. Y.},
edition = {2nd},
isbn = {978-0-521-76981-5},
pages = {498},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{The Global Cryosphere: Past, Present and Future}},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Bartlett2015,
abstract = {The Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) was modified to correct an underestimation of the winter albedo in evergreen needleleaf forests. Default values for the visible and near-infrared albedo of a canopy with intercepted snow, $\alpha$VIS,cs and $\alpha$NIR,cs, respectively, were too small, and the fraction of the canopy covered with snow, fsnow, increased too slowly with interception, producing a damped albedo response. A new model for fsnow is based on zI*, the effective depth of newly intercepted snow required to increase the canopy albedo to its maximum, which corresponds in the model with fsnow=1. Snow unloading rates were extracted from visual assessments of photographs and modelled based on relationships with meteorological variables, replacing the time-based method employed in CLASS. These parameterizations were tested in CLASS version 3.6 at boreal black spruce and jack pine forests in Saskatchewan, Canada, a subalpine Norway spruce and silver fir forest at Alptal, Switzerland, and a boreal maritime forest at Hitsujigaoka, Japan. Model configurations were assessed based on the index of agreement, d, relating simulated and observed daily albedo. The new model employs $\alpha$VIS,cs=0.27, $\alpha$NIR,cs=0.38 and zI*=3cm. The best single-variable snow unloading algorithm, determined by the average cross-site d, was based on wind speed. Two model configurations employing ensemble averages of the unloading rate as a function of total incoming radiation and wind speed, and air temperature and wind speed, respectively, produced larger minimum cross-site d values but a smaller average. The default configuration of CLASS 3.6 produced a cross-site average d from October to April of 0.58. The best model employing a single parameter (wind speed at the canopy top) for modelling the unloading rate produced an average d of 0.86, while the two-parameter ensemble-average unloading models produced a minimum d of 0.81 and an average d of 0.84.},
author = {Bartlett, Paul A. and Verseghy, Diana L.},
doi = {10.1002/hyp.10431},
issn = {10991085},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
keywords = {Albedo,CLASS,Forest,Snow interception,Unloading albedo feedback},
number = {14},
pages = {3208--3226},
title = {{Modified treatment of intercepted snow improves the simulated forest albedo in the Canadian Land Surface Scheme}},
volume = {29},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Barton2019,
abstract = {This article presents a land–atmosphere case-study for a single day during monsoon onset, incorporating data from a research aircraft, satellite products and model outputs. The unique aircraft observations reveal temperature and humidity contrasts of up to 5 K and 4 g/kg in the planetary boundary layer induced by spatial variations in soil moisture. Both antecedent rain and irrigation were found to be drivers of this atmospheric variability. There is also evidence of soil moisture-induced mesoscale circulations above some surfaces. This is the first time such responses have been observed in situ over India. Soil moisture-driven temperature anomalies are larger than those found in previous observational studies in the African Sahel. Moreover, irrigation in the region is extensive, unlike in the Sahel, and has a similar atmospheric effect to antecedent rainfall. This implies that historical changes in irrigation practices are likely to have had an important influence on mesoscale processes within the Indian monsoon. We also examine evidence linking soil moisture and cloud formation. Above wetter soils we observed a suppression of shallow cloud, whilst the initiation of deep convection occurred mostly in areas affected by wet–dry soil moisture boundaries. To investigate the impact of soil moisture heterogeneity on large-scale wind flow, three model depictions of the day are assessed: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses, and a high-resolution (1.5 km) simulation generated using the Indian National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting regional convection-permitting Unified Model. We find evidence indicating surface flux uncertainties in the models lead to ∼3.5 hPa anomalies in the monsoon trough. This does affect the simulation of monsoon circulation and rainfall. Better representation of mesoscale land–atmosphere coupling is likely to improve the depiction of convection within weather and climate models over India.},
author = {Barton, Emma J. and Taylor, Christopher M. and Parker, Douglas J. and Turner, Andrew G. and Belu{\v{s}}i{\'{c}}, Danijel and B{\"{o}}ing, Steven J. and Brooke, Jennifer K. and Harlow, R. Chawn and Harris, Phil P. and Hunt, Kieran and Jayakumar, A. and Mitra, Ashis K.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3538},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {n monsoon,aircraft observations,irrigation,land–atmosphere coupling,monsoon trough,planetary boundary layer},
month = {jul},
number = {731},
pages = {2891--2905},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A case‐study of land–atmosphere coupling during monsoon onset in northern India}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3538 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3538 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.3538},
volume = {146},
year = {2020}
}
@techreport{BatesB.C.Z.W.Kundzewicz2009,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {Bates, B.C. and Kundzewicz, Z.W. and Wu, S. and Palutikof, JP.},
editor = {Bates, B.C. and Kundzewicz, Z.W. and Wu, S. and Palutikof, JP.},
isbn = {9789291691234},
keywords = {Klima,Wasser},
pages = {210},
publisher = {IPCC Secretariat},
title = {{Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/climate-change-and-water-2},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Bathiany2013,
abstract = {Early warning signals (EWS) have become a popular statistical tool to infer stability properties of the climate system. In Part 1 of this two-part paper we have presented a diagnostic method to find the hotspot of a sudden transition as opposed to regions that experience an externally induced tipping as a mere response. Here, we apply our method to the atmosphere–vegetation model PlanetSimulator (PlaSim) – VECODE using a regression model. For each of two vegetation collapses in PlaSim-VECODE, we identify a hotspot of one particular grid cell. We demonstrate with additional experiments that the detected hotspots are indeed a particularly sensitive region in the model and give a physical explanation for these results. The method can thus provide information on the causality of sudden transitions and may help to improve the knowledge on the vulnerability of certain subsystems in climate models.},
author = {Bathiany, S and Claussen, M and Fraedrich, K},
doi = {10.5194/esd-4-79-2013},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
pages = {79--93},
title = {{Detecting hotspots of atmosphere–vegetation interaction via slowing down – Part 2: Application to a global climate model}},
volume = {4},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Bathiany2014,
abstract = {The existence and productivity of vegetation is the basis for food and energy supply in the Sahel. Past changes in climate and vegetation abundance have raised the question whether the region could become greener in the future as a result of higher CO2 levels. By analyzing three Earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with dynamic vegetation, the authors demonstrate why an answer to this question remains elusive in contrast to more robust projections of vegetation cover in the extratropics. First, it depends on the location and the time scale whether vegetation expands or retreats. Until the end of the twenty-first century, the three models agree on a substantial greening in the central and eastern Sahel due to increased CO2 levels. This trend is reversed thereafter, and vegetation retreats in particular in the western Sahel because the beneficial effect of CO2 fertilization is short lived compared to climate change. Second, the vegetation cover changes are driven by different processes in different models (most importantly, precipitation change and CO2 fertilization). As these processes tend to oppose each other, the greening and browning trends are not a reliable result despite the apparent model agreement. The authors also find that the effect of vegetation dynamics on the surface energy balance crucially depends on the location. In contrast to the results of many previous studies, the Sahel appears as a hotspot where the physiological effects of CO2 can exert a cooling because vegetation structure and distribution overcompensate for the decreased stomatal conductance.},
author = {Bathiany, Sebastian and Claussen, Martin and Brovkin, Victor},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00528.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {7163--7184},
title = {{CO2-Induced Sahel Greening in Three CMIP5 Earth System Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00528.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Battisti2014,
author = {Battisti, D. S. and Ding, Qinghua and Roe, G. H.},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD021960},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11997--12020},
title = {{Coherent pan-Asian climatic and isotopic response to orbital forcing of tropical insolation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD021960},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Bayr2014,
abstract = {This study investigates the global warming response of the Walker Circulation and the other zonal circulation cells (represented by the zonal stream function), in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models. The changes in the mean state are presented as well as the changes in the modes of variability. The mean zonal circulation weakens in the multi model ensembles nearly everywhere along the equator under both the RCP4.5 and SRES A1B scenarios. Over the Pacific the Walker Circulation also shows a significant eastward shift. These changes in the mean circulation are very similar to the leading mode of interannual variability in the tropical zonal circulation cells, which is dominated by El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation variability. During an El Ni{\~{n}}o event the circulation weakens and the rising branch over the Maritime Continent shifts to the east in comparison to neutral conditions (vice versa for a La Ni{\~{n}}a event). Two-thirds of the global warming forced trend of the Walker Circulation can be explained by a long-term trend in this interannual variability pattern, i.e. a shift towards more El Ni{\~{n}}o-like conditions in the multi-model mean under global warming. Further, interannual variability in the zonal circulation exhibits an asymmetry between El Ni{\~{n}}o and La Ni{\~{n}}a events. El Ni{\~{n}}o anomalies are located more to the east compared with La Ni{\~{n}}a anomalies. Consistent with this asymmetry we find a shift to the east of the dominant mode of variability of zonal stream function under global warming. All these results vary among the individual models, but the multi model ensembles of CMIP3 and CMIP5 show in nearly all aspects very similar results, which underline the robustness of these results. The observed data (ERA Interim reanalysis) from 1979 to 2012 shows a westward shift and strengthening of the Walker Circulation. This is opposite to what the results in the CMIP models reveal. However, 75 {\%} of the trend of the Walker Circulation can again be explained by a shift of the dominant mode of variability, but here towards more La Ni{\~{n}}a-like conditions. Thus in both climate change projections and observations the long-term trends of the Walker Circulation seem to follow to a large part the pre-existing dominant mode of internal variability.},
author = {Bayr, Tobias and Dommenget, Dietmar and Martin, Thomas and Power, Scott B.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2091-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Asymmetry of ENSO,Changes in the modes of variability,ENSO variability,Global warming,Walker Circulation,Zonal atmospheric circutlation},
month = {nov},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2747--2763},
title = {{The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2091-y},
volume = {43},
year = {2014}
}
@article{bkjdlrvb08,
author = {Bechtold, Peter and K{\"{o}}hler, Martin and Jung, Thomas and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco and Leutbecher, Martin and Rodwell, Mark J and Vitart, Frederic and Balsamo, Gianpaolo},
doi = {10.1002/qj.289},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {jul},
number = {634},
pages = {1337--1351},
title = {{Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.289},
volume = {134},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Bechtold2014,
abstract = {A new diagnostic convective closure, which is dependent on convective available potential energy (CAPE), is derived under the quasi-equilibrium assumption for the free troposphere subject to boundary layer forcing. The closure involves a convective adjustment time scale for the free troposphere and a coupling coefficient between the free troposphere and the boundary layer based on different time scales over land and ocean. Earlier studies with the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) have already demonstrated the model's ability to realistically represent tropical convectively coupled waves and synoptic variability with use of the "standard" CAPE closure, given realistic entrainment rates. A comparison of low-resolution seasonal integrations and high-resolution short-range forecasts against complementary satellite and radar data shows that with the extended CAPE closure it is also possible, independent of model resolution and time step, to realistically represent nonequilibrium convection such as the diurnal cycle of convection and the convection tied to advective boundary layers, although representing the late night convection over land remains a challenge.Amore in-depth regional analysis of the diurnal cycle and the closure is provided for the continental United States and particularly Africa, including comparison with data from satellites and a cloud-resolving model (CRM). Consequences for global numerical weather prediction (NWP) are not only a better phase representation of convection, but also better forecasts of its spatial distribution and local intensity. {\textcopyright} 2014 American Meteorological Society.},
author = {Bechtold, Peter and Semane, Noureddine and Lopez, Philippe and Chaboureau, Jean Pierre and Beljaars, Anton and Bormann, Niels},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-13-0163.1},
issn = {00224928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
number = {2},
pages = {734--753},
title = {{Representing equilibrium and nonequilibrium convection in large-scale models}},
volume = {71},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Beck2017,
abstract = {Abstract. We undertook a comprehensive evaluation of 22 gridded (quasi-)global (sub-)daily precipitation (P) datasets for the period 2000–2016. Thirteen non-gauge-corrected P datasets were evaluated using daily P gauge observations from 76 086 gauges worldwide. Another nine gauge-corrected datasets were evaluated using hydrological modeling, by calibrating the HBV conceptual model against streamflow records for each of 9053 small to medium-sized (},
author = {Beck, Hylke E. and Vergopolan, Noemi and Pan, Ming and Levizzani, Vincenzo and van Dijk, Albert I. J. M. and Weedon, Graham P. and Brocca, Luca and Pappenberger, Florian and Huffman, George J. and Wood, Eric F.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {6201--6217},
title = {{Global-scale evaluation of 22 precipitation datasets using gauge observations and hydrological modeling}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/6201/2017/},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Behera2005,
author = {Behera, Swadhin K. and Luo, Jing-Jia and Masson, Sebastien and Delecluse, Pascale and Gualdi, Silvio and Navarra, Antonio and Yamagata, Toshio},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI3541.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {4514--4530},
title = {{Paramount Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: A CGCM Study}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3541.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Behrangi2016a,
abstract = {Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are often associated with extreme precipitation, which can lead to flooding or alleviate droughts. A decade (2003–12) of landfalling ARs impacting the North American west coast (between 32.5° and 52.5°N) is collected to assess the skill of five commonly used satellite-based precipitation products [T3B42, T3B42 real-time (T3B42RT), CPC morphing technique (CMORPH), PERSIANN, and PERSIANN–Cloud Classification System (CCS)] in capturing ARs' precipitation rate and pattern. AR detection was carried out using a database containing twice-daily satellite-based integrated water vapor composite observations. It was found that satellite products are more consistent over ocean than land and often significantly underestimate precipitation rate over land compared to ground observations. Incorrect detection of precipitation from IR-based methods is prevalent over snow and ice surfaces where microwave estimates often show underestimation or missing data. Bias adjustment using ground observation is found very effective to improve satellite products, but it also raises concern regarding near-real-time applicability of satellite products for ARs. The analysis using individual case studies (6–8 January and 13–14 October 2009) and an ensemble of AR events suggests that further advancement in capturing orographic precipitation and precipitation over cold and frozen surfaces is needed to more reliably quantify AR precipitation from space.},
author = {Behrangi, Ali and Guan, Bin and Neiman, Paul J and Schreier, Mathias and Lambrigtsen, Bjorn},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-15-0061.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {369--382},
title = {{On the Quantification of Atmospheric Rivers Precipitation from Space: Composite Assessments and Case Studies over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean and the Western United States}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0061.1},
volume = {17},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bell2006,
abstract = {Abstract Since the late 1960s, the West African Sudan–Sahel zone (10°–18°N) has experienced persistent and often severe drought, which is among the most undisputed and largest regional climate changes in the last half-century. Previous documentation of the drought generally has used monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall totals and departures, in a standard “climate” approach that overlooks the underlying weather system variability. Most Sudan–Sahel rainfall occurs during June–September and is delivered by westward-propagating, linear-type, mesoscale convective systems [disturbance lines (DLs)] that typically have much longer north–south (102–103 km) than east–west (10–102 km) dimensions. Here, a large set of daily rainfall data is analyzed to relate DL and regional climate variability on intraseasonal-to-multidecadal time scales for 1951–98. Rain gauge–based indices of DL frequency, size, and intensity are evaluated on a daily basis for four 440-km square “catchments” that extend across most of the West ...},
author = {Bell, Michael A. and Lamb, Peter J. and Bell, Michael A. and Lamb, Peter J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI4020.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Africa,Climate change,Observational studies},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {5343--5365},
title = {{Integration of Weather System Variability to Multidecadal Regional Climate Change: The West African Sudan–Sahel Zone, 1951–98}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI4020.1},
volume = {19},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Belmecheri2016,
abstract = {To the Editor — California is currently experiencing a record-setting drought that started in 2012 and recently culminated in the first ever mandatory state-wide water restriction. The snowpack conditions in the Sierra Nevada mountains present an ominous sign of the severity of this drought: the 1 April 2015 snow water equivalent{\ldots}},
author = {Belmecheri, Soumaya and Babst, Flurin and Wahl, Eugene R. and Stahle, David W. and Trouet, Valerie},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2809},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {2--3},
title = {{Multi-century evaluation of Sierra Nevada snowpack}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2809},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Belyazid2019,
abstract = {Climate change will bring about a consistent increase in temperatures. Annual precipitation rates are also expected to increase in boreal countries, but the seasonal distribution will be uneven, and several areas in the boreal zone will experience wetter winters and drier summers. This study uses the dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE to estimate the combined effect of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest carbon stocks in Sweden. The model is used to simulate carbon stock changes in 544 productive forest sites from the Swedish National Forest Inventory. Forest carbon stocks under two alternative climate scenarios are compared to stocks under a hypothetical scenario of no climate change (baseline). Results show that lower water availability in the future can cause a significant reduction in tree carbon compared to a baseline scenario, particularly expressed in the southern and eastern parts of Sweden. In contrast, the north-western parts will experience an increase in tree carbon stocks. Results show also that summer precipitation is a better predictor of tree carbon reduction than annual precipitation. Finally, the change in soil carbon stock is less conspicuous than in tree carbon stock, showing no significant change in the north and a relatively small but consistent decline in the south. The study indicates that the prospect of higher water deficit caused by climate change cannot be ignored in future forest management planning.},
author = {Belyazid, Salim and Giuliana, Zanchi},
doi = {10.1007/s10342-019-01168-4},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {16124669},
journal = {European Journal of Forest Research},
keywords = {Climate change,Dynamic modelling,ForSAFE,Forest carbon stock,Sweden,Water deficiency},
number = {2},
pages = {287--297},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Water limitation can negate the effect of higher temperatures on forest carbon sequestration}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-019-01168-4},
volume = {138},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bender2012,
author = {Bender, Frida A.M. and Ramanathan, V. and Tselioudis, George},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-011-1065-6},
issn = {09307575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2037--2053},
title = {{Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983–2008: Observational support for a poleward shift}},
volume = {38},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Benestad2019,
abstract = {We test an equation for the probability of heavy 24 h precipitation amounts Pr(X {\textgreater} x) as a function of the wet-day frequency and the wet-day mean precipitation. The expression was evaluated against 9817 daily rain gauge records world-wide and was subsequently used to derive mathematical expressions for different rainfall statistics in terms of the wet-day frequency and the wet-day mean precipitation. This framework comprised expressions for probabilities, mean, variance, and return-values. We differentiated these statistics with respect to time and compared them to trends in number of rainy days and the mean rainfall intensity based on 1875 rain gauge records with more than 50 years of valid data over the period 1961-2018. The results indicate that there has been a general increase in the probability of precipitation exceeding 50 mm/day. The main cause for this increase has been a boost in the intensity of the rain, but there were also some cases where it has been due to more rainy days. In some limited regions there has also been an increase in Pr(X {\textgreater} 50 mm/day) that coincided with a decrease in the number of rainy days. We also found a general increasing trend in the variance and the 10-year return-value over 1961-2018 due to increasing wet-day frequency and wet-day mean precipitation.},
author = {Benestad, Rasmus E. and Parding, Kajsa M. and Erlandsen, Helene B. and Mezghani, Abdelkader},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab2bb2},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {heavy rainfall,probability,rain gauge data,rainfall statistics,trend,wet-day frequency,wet-day mean precipitation},
month = {jul},
number = {8},
pages = {084017},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{A simple equation to study changes in rainfall statistics}},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{beniston2018european,
abstract = {Abstract. The mountain cryosphere of mainland Europe is recognized to have important impacts on a range of environmental processes. In this paper, we provide an overview on the current knowledge on snow, glacier, and permafrost processes, as well as their past, current, and future evolution. We additionally provide an assessment of current cryosphere research in Europe and point to the different domains requiring further research. Emphasis is given to our understanding of climate–cryosphere interactions, cryosphere controls on physical and biological mountain systems, and related impacts. By the end of the century, Europe's mountain cryosphere will have changed to an extent that will impact the landscape, the hydrological regimes, the water resources, and the infrastructure. The impacts will not remain confined to the mountain area but also affect the downstream lowlands, entailing a wide range of socioeconomical consequences. European mountains will have a completely different visual appearance, in which low- and mid-range-altitude glaciers will have disappeared and even large valley glaciers will have experienced significant retreat and mass loss. Due to increased air temperatures and related shifts from solid to liquid precipitation, seasonal snow lines will be found at much higher altitudes, and the snow season will be much shorter than today. These changes in snow and ice melt will cause a shift in the timing of discharge maxima, as well as a transition of runoff regimes from glacial to nival and from nival to pluvial. This will entail significant impacts on the seasonality of high-altitude water availability, with consequences for water storage and management in reservoirs for drinking water, irrigation, and hydropower production. Whereas an upward shift of the tree line and expansion of vegetation can be expected into current periglacial areas, the disappearance of permafrost at lower altitudes and its warming at higher elevations will likely result in mass movements and process chains beyond historical experience. Future cryospheric research has the responsibility not only to foster awareness of these expected changes and to develop targeted strategies to precisely quantify their magnitude and rate of occurrence but also to help in the development of approaches to adapt to these changes and to mitigate their consequences. Major joint efforts are required in the domain of cryospheric monitoring, which will require coordination in terms of data av{\ldots}},
author = {Beniston, Martin and Farinotti, Daniel and Stoffel, Markus and Andreassen, Liss M. and Coppola, Erika and Eckert, Nicolas and Fantini, Adriano and Giacona, Florie and Hauck, Christian and Huss, Matthias and Huwald, Hendrik and Lehning, Michael and L{\'{o}}pez-Moreno, Juan-Ignacio and Magnusson, Jan and Marty, Christoph and Mor{\'{a}}n-Tej{\'{e}}da, Enrique and Morin, Samuel and Naaim, Mohamed and Provenzale, Antonello and Rabatel, Antoine and Six, Delphine and St{\"{o}}tter, Johann and Strasser, Ulrich and Terzago, Silvia and Vincent, Christian and Others},
doi = {10.5194/tc-12-759-2018},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {Cryosphere},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {759--794},
title = {{The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges}},
volume = {12},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Berg2013,
abstract = {Precipitation changes can affect society more directly than variations in most other meteorological observables 1–3 , but precipitation is difficult to characterize because of fluctuations on nearly all temporal and spatial scales. In addition, the intensity of extreme precipitation rises markedly at higher temperature 4–9 , faster than the rate of increase in the at-mosphere's water-holding capacity 1,4 , termed the Clausius– Clapeyron rate. Invigoration of convective precipitation (such as thunderstorms) has been favoured over a rise in stratiform precipitation (such as large-scale frontal precipitation) as a cause for this increase 4,10 , but the relative contributions of these two types of precipitation have been difficult to disentan-gle. Here we combine large data sets from radar measurements and rain gauges over Germany with corresponding synoptic ob-servations and temperature records, and separate convective and stratiform precipitation events by cloud observations. We find that for stratiform precipitation, extremes increase with temperature at approximately the Clausius–Clapeyron rate, without characteristic scales. In contrast, convective precipi-tation exhibits characteristic spatial and temporal scales, and its intensity in response to warming exceeds the Clausius– Clapeyron rate. We conclude that convective precipitation re-sponds much more sensitively to temperature increases than stratiform precipitation, and increasingly dominates events of extreme precipitation. The Clausius–Clapeyron relation describes the rate of change of saturation vapour pressure of approximately 7{\%} • C −1 at typical surface temperatures, and thereby sets a scale for increases in precipitation extremes 1 . Recent studies on extreme precipitation have indeed found that high precipitation percentiles on short observational timescales generally increase with temperature 4–9,11 . For the Netherlands, increases of extreme precipitation intensity roughly commensurate with the Clausius–Clapeyron rate at low temperatures but beyond this rate at temperatures above 12 • C were first reported in 2008 (ref. 4). Remarkably, similar observations were subsequently made for other mid-latitude 7,9 and tropical regions 8,9 for short timescales. However, the difficulty of identifying precipitation types 12,13 —namely stratiform and convective rain— and relatively limited data 11 have made unequivocal attribution of the high rate above 12 • C to either of the types unfeasible. Even statistical effects have been suggested to explain the super-Clausius–Clapeyron rate 11,14 . The basic hypothesis is that precipitation intensity changes may be tied to the change in saturation vapour pressure. It hinges on the assumption that precipitation intensity should be proportional to changes in the mixing ratio at cloud base. Everything else held constant, condensation should increase accordingly. Atmospheric temperature changes may however alter other quantities—such as the moist adiabatic lapse rate—thereby affecting the actual rate of condensation 15–17 . With persistent uncertainties and dependence on parameteri-zations in precipitation simulated by global climate models 18–20 , a promising path towards a better statistical characterization of precipitation are convection-resolving models. Although no sup-port for intensity increases beyond the Clausius–Clapeyron rate was gained from some studies 15,16 , others found that extreme rainfall at high temperatures may increase beyond the Clausius–Clapeyron rate, when the life cycle of individual storms is monitored 10 . The difficulty in reaching final agreement on the mechanism of the scaling with temperature in simulations 10,15,16 may partially be due to their idealized set-up, acting on relatively small scales. Observed variability in the mesoscale and synoptic conditions, required as at-mospheric boundary conditions, cannot be fully taken into account. These uncertainties call for direct observational demonstration of the scaling for the different types. Precipitation is most directly measured by ground-based gauges. We use a large, temporally and spatially dense network of gauges in southwestern Germany (Fig. 1a), comprising 90 gauges with five-minute temporal resolution over an eight-year-long time period. This provides approximately 700 years of aggregated data. The gauge data are complemented by extensive radar measurements, providing five-minute instantaneous radar reflectivity fields covering Germany (Fig. 1a) over two years. All precipitation records are matched with daily temperature measurements for the corresponding time periods. Convective and stratiform types are separated using three-hourly synoptic observations over Germany (Fig. 1a). At any given time, the precipitation measurements from both data sets are separated into convective and stratiform types depending on the observed clouds 11 . Examples are depicted in Fig. 1b,c (see Methods for details). Figure 2a shows the intensity distribution function for both precipitation types for the five-minute temporal intervals (gauge records). Only non-zero (≥0.1 mm/5 min) measurements were used, corresponding to approximately 3{\%} of the data (see Supplementary Fig. S2d). The stratiform type shows power-law behaviour for intensities above 4 mm h −1 , with an exponent $\gamma$ ≈ −3. This implies a well-defined mean but divergent higher-order statistics of the distribution. Conversely, for convective precipitation, the distribution follows a completely different},
annote = {Meteorological type important in determining precipitation response to warming.},
author = {Berg, Peter and Moseley, Christopher and Haerter, Jan O.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1731},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {17520894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {thermo},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {181--185},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1731},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Berg2016,
abstract = {The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface's response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.},
annote = {Land-atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming},
author = {Berg, Alexis and Findell, Kirsten and Lintner, Benjamin and Giannini, Alessandra and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and {Van Den Hurk}, Bart and Lorenz, Ruth and Pitman, Andy and Hagemann, Stefan and Meier, Arndt and Cheruy, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}rique and Ducharne, Agn{\`{e}}s and Malyshev, Sergey and Milly, P. C.D.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3029},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {869--874},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3029},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Berg2018,
abstract = {We review the extensive and sometimes conflicting recent literature on drought changes under global warming. We focus on soil moisture deficits, which are indicative of associated impacts on ecosystems. Soil moisture is a key state variable of the land surface, reflecting complex interactions between the water, energy, and carbon cycles.},
author = {Berg, Alexis and Sheffield, Justin},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0095-0},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Climate change,Drought,Soil moisture,climate change},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {180--191},
title = {{Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-018-0095-0},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Berg2017,
abstract = {Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, total, and layer-by-layer soil moisture. We identify a robust vertical gradient of projected mean soil moisture changes, with more negative changes near the surface. Some regions of the northern middle to high latitudes exhibit negative annual surface changes but positive total changes. We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget. This vertical pattern implies that the extensive drying predicted by off-line drought metrics, while consistent with the projected decline in surface soil moisture, will tend to overestimate (negatively) changes in total soil water availability.},
author = {Berg, Alexis and Sheffield, Justin and Milly, P. C.D.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071921},
isbn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,drought,hydrology,soil moisture,water cycle},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {236--244},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL071921},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Berg2015,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Abstract. A new treatment of cloud effects on aerosol and trace gases within parameterized shallow and deep convection, and aerosol effects on cloud droplet number, has been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) version 3.2.1 that can be used to better understand the aerosol life cycle over regional to synoptic scales. The modifications to the model include treatment of the cloud droplet number mixing ratio; key cloud microphysical and macrophysical parameters (including the updraft fractional area, updraft and downdraft mass fluxes, and entrainment) averaged over the population of shallow clouds, or a single deep convective cloud; and vertical transport, activation/resuspension, aqueous chemistry, and wet removal of aerosol and trace gases in warm clouds. These changes have been implemented in both the WRF-Chem chemistry packages as well as the Kain–Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization that has been modified to better represent shallow convective clouds. Testing of the modified WRF-Chem has been completed using observations from the Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS). The simulation results are used to investigate the impact of cloud–aerosol interactions on regional-scale transport of black carbon (BC), organic aerosol (OA), and sulfate aerosol. Based on the simulations presented here, changes in the column-integrated BC can be as large as −50{\%} when cloud–aerosol interactions are considered (due largely to wet removal), or as large as +40{\%} for sulfate under non-precipitating conditions due to sulfate production in the parameterized clouds. The modifications to WRF-Chem are found to account for changes in the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) and changes in the chemical composition of cloud droplet residuals in a way that is consistent with observations collected during CHAPS. Efforts are currently underway to port the changes described here to the latest version of WRF-Chem, and it is anticipated that they will be included in a future public release of WRF-Chem.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Berg, L. K. and Shrivastava, M. and Easter, R. C. and Fast, J. D. and Chapman, E. G. and Liu, Y. and Ferrare, R. A.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-8-409-2015},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {409--429},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{A new WRF-Chem treatment for studying regional-scale impacts of cloud processes on aerosol and trace gases in parameterized cumuli}},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Berg2018b,
abstract = {AbstractSoil moisture–atmosphere coupling is a key process underlying climate variability and change over land. The control of soil moisture (SM) on evapotranspiration (ET) is a necessary condition for soil moisture to feedback onto surface climate. Here we investigate how this control manifests across simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble, using correlation analysis focusing on the interannual (summertime) time scale. Analysis of CMIP5 historical simulations indicates significant model diversity in SM-ET coupling, both in terms of patterns and magnitude. We investigate the relationship of this spread with model differences in background simulated climate and climate variability. Mean precipitation is found to be an important driver of model spread in SM-ET coupling, but does not explain all of the model differences, presumably because of model differences in the treatment of land hydrology. Compared to observations, some land regions appear consistently biased dry and thus likely overly soil moisture-limit...},
author = {Berg, Alexis and Sheffield, Justin},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0757.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere,Atmosphere-land interaction,Climate change,Evapotranspiration,Land surface,Soil moisture},
number = {12},
pages = {4865--4878},
title = {{Soil moisture–evapotranspiration coupling in CMIP5 models: Relationship with simulated climate and projections}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Berg2017d,
abstract = {Sierra Nevada climate and snowpack is simulated during the period of extreme drought from 2011 to 2015 and compared to an identical simulation except for the removal of the twentieth century anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic warming reduced average snowpack levels by 25{\%}, with middle-to-low elevations experiencing reductions between 26 and 43{\%}. In terms of event frequency, return periods associated with anomalies in 4 year 1 April snow water equivalent are estimated to have doubled, and possibly quadrupled, due to past warming. We also estimate effects of future anthropogenic warmth on snowpack during a drought similar to that of 2011–2015. Further snowpack declines of 60–85{\%} are expected, depending on emissions scenario. The return periods associated with future snowpack levels are estimated to range from millennia to much longer. Therefore, past human emissions of greenhouse gases are already negatively impacting statewide water resources during drought, and much more severe impacts are likely to be inevitable.},
author = {Berg, Neil and Hall, Alex},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL072104},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Sierra Nevada,drought,snowpack,warming,water resources},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2511--2518},
title = {{Anthropogenic warming impacts on California snowpack during drought}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL072104},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Berghuijs2019,
abstract = {nferring the mechanisms causing river flooding is key to understanding past, present and future flood risk. However, a quantitative spatially distributed overview of the mechanisms that drive flooding across Europe is currently unavailable. In addition, studies that classify catchments according to their flood‐driving mechanisms often identify a single mechanism per location, although multiple mechanisms typically contribute to flood risk. We introduce a new method that uses seasonality statistics to estimate the relative importance of extreme precipitation, soil moisture excess, and snowmelt as flood drivers. Applying this method to a European dataset of maximum annual flow dates in several thousand catchments reveals that from 1960 to 2010 relatively few annual floods were caused by annual rainfall peaks. Instead, most European floods were caused by snowmelt and by the concurrence of heavy precipitation with high antecedent soil moisture. For most catchments, the relative importance of these mechanisms has not substantially changed during the past five decades. Exposing the regional mechanisms underlying Europe's most costly natural hazard is a key first step in identifying the processes that require most attention in future flood research. Key Points We estimate the importance of extreme precipitation, soil moisture excess, and snowmelt as flood drivers, using dates of annual flow peaks. In Europe, most annual floods are caused by sub‐extreme precipitation with high antecedent soil moisture, not by annual peak rainfall. The relative importance of these flood‐generating mechanisms has not changed substantially from 1960 to 2010.},
author = {Berghuijs, Wouter R. and Harrigan, Shaun and Molnar, Peter and Slater, Louise J. and Kirchner, James W.},
doi = {10.1029/2019WR024841},
issn = {19447973},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {catchment,extreme event,flood,processes,rain,snow},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {4582--4593},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The Relative Importance of Different Flood-Generating Mechanisms Across Europe}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024841},
volume = {55},
year = {2019}
}
@book{bwh14,
abstract = {In a warming climate, precipitation is less likely to occur as snowfall1,2 . A shift from a snow- towards a rain-dominated regime is currently assumed not to influence the mean stream- flow significantly1,3–5 . Contradicting the current paradigm, we argue that mean streamflow is likely to reduce for catchments that experience significant reductions in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow.With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population depending on meltwater for their water supply3 and ecosystems that can be sensitive to streamflow alterations6 , the socio-economic consequences of a reduction in streamflowcanbesubstantial.By applying theBudykowater balance framework7 to catchments located throughout the contiguousUnitedStateswedemonstratethatahigherfraction of precipitation falling as snowis associated with higher mean streamflow, compared to catchments with marginal or no snowfall. Furthermore,we showthat the fraction of each year's precipitation falling as snowfall has a significant influence on theannualstreamflowwithin individual catchments.Thisstudy is limited to introducing these observations; process-based understanding at the catchment scale is not yet provided. Given the importance of streamflow for society, further studies are required to respond to the consequences of a temperature-induced precipitation shift from snow to rain.},
author = {Berghuijs, W. R. and Woods, R. A. and Hrachowitz, M. and Hrachowitz, R},
booktitle = {Nature Climate Change},
doi = {10-1038/nclimate2246},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {583--586},
publisher = {Nature Climate Change},
title = {{A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow}},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Bernstein2016,
author = {Bernstein, Diana N. and Neelin, J. David},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL069022},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {deep  parameterization,global warming hydrological cycle change,parameter sensitivity,perturbed physics ensemble,regional precipitation change quantification},
number = {11},
pages = {5841--5850},
title = {{Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters}},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Berthou2019b,
abstract = {The West African climate is unique and challenging to reproduce using standard resolution climate models as a large proportion of precipitation comes from organised deep convection. For the first time, a regional 4.5 km convection permitting simulation was performed on a pan-African domain for a period of 10 years (1997–2006). The 4.5 km simulation (CP4A) is compared with a 25 × 40 km convection-parameterised model (R25) over West Africa. CP4A shows increased mean precipitation, which results in improvements in the mature phase of the West African monsoon but deterioration in the early and late phases. The distribution of precipitation rates is improved due to more short lasting intense rainfall events linked with mesoscale convective systems. Consequently, the CP4A model shows a better representation of wet and dry spells both at the daily and sub-daily time-scales. The diurnal cycle of rainfall is improved, which impacts the diurnal cycle of monsoon winds and increases moisture convergence in the Sahel. Although shortcomings were identified, with implications for model development, this convection-permitting model provides a much more reliable precipitation distribution than its convection-parameterised counterpart at both daily and sub-daily time-scales. Convection-permitting scales will therefore be useful to address the crucial question of how the precipitation distribution will change in the future.},
author = {Berthou, S{\'{e}}gol{\`{e}}ne and Rowell, David P. and Kendon, Elizabeth J. and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Stratton, Rachel A. and Crook, Julia A. and Wilcox, Catherine},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04759-4},
isbn = {0038201904759},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1991--2011},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Improved climatological precipitation characteristics over West Africa at convection-permitting scales}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04759-4},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Berthou2019,
abstract = {Abstract Monsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection-parameterised regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5 km resolution convection-permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in the Sahel. By comparing the climate change signals of CP4A and a standard RCM (R25), we find that changes in mean rainfall and wet day frequency are linearly related. However, rainfall intensity changes are independent. Intensification of rainfall is larger in CP4A and happens in regions of both increasing and decreasing mean rainfall. Rainfall from extreme events increases by a factor of 5 to 10 in CP4A, compared to 2 to 3 in R25. CP4A also shows larger changes in intraseasonal rainfall variability, dry spells and short and long duration extreme rainfall than R25, all of which are relevant for hydrology and agriculture.},
author = {Berthou, S and Kendon, E J and Rowell, D P and Roberts, M J and Tucker, S and Stratton, R A},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083544},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate change,West Africa-permitting model rainfall,rainfall intensification},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {13299--13307},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083544 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083544},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bethke2017,
author = {Bethke, Ingo and Outten, Stephen and Otter{\aa}, Odd Helge and Hawkins, Ed and Wagner, Sebastian and Sigl, Michael and Thorne, Peter},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3394},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {799--805},
title = {{Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3394},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Betts2015,
abstract = {A new generation of an Earth system model now includes a number of land-surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run. This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from an impacts perspective - specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and water resources - for four different scenarios following the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013, 2014). Over the 21st century, simulated changes in global and continental-scale terrestrial ecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs, even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st century ranges from 2°C in the lowest scenario to 5.5° in the highest. A warming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaf trees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in a poleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in all scenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenarios of greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise at regional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic land cover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warming results in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a large expansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increase across extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of CO2 and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing with mean temperature at the end of the 21st century at the global scale and in North America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, the relationship with climate warming and CO2 rise is less clear, probably as a result of land cover change exerting a dominant effect in those regions.},
author = {Betts, R. A. and Golding, N. and Gonzalez, P. and Gornall, J. and Kahana, R. and Kay, G. and Mitchell, L. and Wiltshire, A.},
doi = {10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015},
isbn = {1726-4189},
issn = {17264189},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
number = {5},
pages = {1317--1338},
title = {{Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways}},
volume = {12},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bevacqua2019,
abstract = {In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future.},
author = {Bevacqua, E and Maraun, D and Vousdoukas, M I and Voukouvalas, E and Vrac, M and Mentaschi, L and Widmann, M},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {eaaw5531},
title = {{Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change}},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaaw5531.abstract},
volume = {5},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Beven2018,
abstract = {Core Ideas In the 20th century there was a general denial of the evidence for preferential flow. The development of models of preferential flow is reviewed. Some critical areas for future research in this field are identified. This review provides a historical summary of the development of knowledge on preferential and non-equilibrium flows in soils, particularly in the period 1864 to 1984. It is pointed out that preferential flows were recognized long before the equilibrium concepts of Edgar Buckingham and Lorenzo A. Richards were developed and became the dominant underpinnings of soil physics in the 20th century, effectively in denial of all the evidence that the Buckingham?Richards theory was inadequate to deal with water flows in field soils. Summaries of evidence from soil microscopy, tracing and breakthrough curve experiments, infiltration and throughflow observations, and studies of natural pipes are presented. Approaches to modeling preferential flows at soil profile and hillslope responses are also reviewed, including viscous flow theory and particle tracking methods. Further research is required into the integration of viscosity and capillarity-dominated flows, into nonlaminar flows in larger pores, and into upscaling from core and profile experiments to larger hillslope scales. Also, more rigorous hypothesis testing is required in soil physics and hillslope hydrology using both flow and tracer data. This might lead to a new paradigm in representing the detail complexity of flow in soils in applications at larger scales.},
author = {Beven, Keith},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2018.08.0153},
issn = {1539-1663},
journal = {Vadose Zone Journal},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {180153},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A Century of Denial: Preferential and Nonequilibrium Water Flow in Soils, 1864–1984}},
url = {10.2136/vzj2018.08.0153},
volume = {17},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bhattacharya_2017,
annote = {large-scale dynamics and convective scale changes alter precipitation extremes scaling with warming and are sensitive to convection schemes in aqua planet experiments},
author = {Bhattacharya, Ritthik and Bordoni, Simona and Teixeira, Jo{\~{a}}o},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073121},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {aquaplanet,convection  },
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3374--3383},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Tropical precipitation extremes: Response to SST-induced warming in aquaplanet simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017gl073121},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bhattacharya2017,
abstract = {The North American Monsoon (NAM) provides critical water resources to the U.S. southwest and northwestern Mexico. Despite its importance to regional hydrology, the mechanisms that shape this monsoon are not fully understood. In this paper, we use model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka B.P.) to assess the sensitivity of the NAM to glacial boundary conditions and shed light on its fundamental dynamics. We find that atmospheric changes induced by ice sheet albedo reduce NAM intensity at the LGM. The high albedo of the Laurentide ice sheet cools the surface and drives anomalous northwesterly winds that reduce the monsoon circulation and import cold, dry air into the core NAM region. Our work emphasizes the role of ice sheet albedo rather than topography in driving the atmospheric changes that modulate the glacial NAM, and ties our understanding of the NAM to broader theories of monsoon systems.},
author = {Bhattacharya, Tripti and Tierney, Jessica E. and DiNezio, Pedro},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073632},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {North American Monsoon,albedio,ice sheet,paleoclimate,ventilation},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5113--5122},
title = {{Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073632},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bhattacharya2018,
abstract = {The North American monsoon, the dominant source of rainfall for much of the arid US Southwest, remains one of the least understood monsoon systems. The late Pleistocene evolution of this monsoon is poorly constrained, largely because glacial changes in winter rainfall obscure summer monsoon signatures in many regional proxy records. Here, we develop deglacial records of monsoon strength from isotopic analyses of leaf wax biomarkers in marine sediment cores. Reconstructions indicate a regional decrease in monsoon rainfall during the Last Glacial Maximum, and that the deglacial trajectory of the North American monsoon closely tracks changes in North American ice cover. In climate model simulations, North American ice cover shifts the westerlies southwards, favouring the mixing of cold, dry air into the US Southwest. This process, known as ventilation, weakens the monsoon by diluting the energy fluxes required for convection. As the ice sheet retreats northwards, the monsoon strengthens, and local ocean conditions may play a larger role in regulating its intensity. We conclude that on glacial–interglacial timescales, ice-sheet-induced reorganizations of atmospheric circulation have a dominant influence on the North American monsoon.},
author = {Bhattacharya, Tripti and Tierney, Jessica E. and Addison, Jason A. and Murray, James W.},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-018-0220-7},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {848--852},
title = {{Ice-sheet modulation of deglacial North American monsoon intensification}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0220-7},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Biasutti2019a,
abstract = {The Tropical Rain bands with an Annual cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP) ensemble—a multi-model ensemble of slab-ocean simulations in idealized configurations—provides a test of the relationship between the zonal mean ITCZ and the cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transports (AHT eq ). In a gross sense, the ITCZ position is linearly related to AHT eq , as expected from the energetic framework. Yet, in many aspects, the TRACMIP model simulations do not conform to the framework. Throughout the annual cycle there are large excursions in the ITCZ position unrelated to changes in the AHT eq and, vice-versa, substantial variations in the magnitude of the AHT eq while the ITCZ is stationary at its northernmost position. Variations both in the net vertical energy input at the ITCZ location and in the vertical profile of ascent play a role in setting the model behavior apart from the conceptual framework. Nevertheless, a linear fit to the ITCZ/AHT eq relationship captures a substantial fraction of the seasonal variations in these quantities as well as the inter-model or across-climate variations in their annual mean values. The slope of the ITCZ/AHT eq linear fit for annual mean changes across simulations with different forcings and configurations varies in magnitude and even sign from model to model and we identify variations in the vertical profile of ascent as a key factor. A simple sea surface temperature based index avoids the complication of changes in the vertical structure of the atmospheric circulation and provides a more reliable diagnostic for the ITCZ position.},
author = {Biasutti, Michela and Voigt, Aiko},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-19-0602.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {dec},
number = {7},
pages = {2853--2870},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Seasonal and CO2-induced shifts of the ITCZ: testing energetic controls in idealized simulations with comprehensive models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0602.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Biasutti2013,
abstract = {The simulations of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) strengthen previous assessments of a substantial role of anthropogenic emissions in driving precipitation changes in the Sahel, the semiarid region at the southern edge of the Sahara. Historical simulations can capture the magnitude of the centennial Sahel drying over the span of the 20th century and confirm that anthropogenic forcings have contributed substantially to it. Yet, the models do not reproduce the amplitude of observed oscillations at multidecadal timescales, suggesting that either oscillations in the forcing or the strength of natural variability are underestimated. Projections for Sahel rainfall are less robust than the 20th century hindcast and outlier projections persist, but overall the CMIP5 models confirm the CMIP3 results in many details and reaffirm the prediction of a rainy season that is more feeble at its start, especially in West Africa, and more abundant at its core across the entire Sahel. Out of 20 models, four buck this consensus. Idealized simulations from a subset of the CMIP5 ensemble - simulations designed to separate the fast land-atmosphere response to increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the slow response mediated through changes in sea surface temperature (SST) - confirm that the direct effect of CO2 is to enhance the monsoon, while warmer SST induce drying over the Sahel. At the same time, these simulations suggest that the seasonal evolution of the rainfall trends in the scenario simulations, spring drying and fall wetting, is an inherently coupled response, not captured by the linear superposition of the fast and slow response to CO2. Key PointsAnthropogenic forcing contributed to past drought in the Sahel.Projections are converging on a delay and intensification of the rainy season.land-ocean interactions are important for the response {\textcopyright} 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Biasutti, M.},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50206},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CMIP5,Sahel,climate change,monsoon},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1613--1623},
title = {{Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jgrd.50206},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Biasutti2019,
abstract = {Sahel rainfall is dynamically linked to the global Hadley cell and to the regional monsoon circulation. It is therefore susceptible to forcings from remote oceans and regional land alike. Warming of the oceans enhances the stability of the tropical atmosphere and weakens deep ascent in the Hadley circulation. Warming of the Sahara and of the nearby oceans changes the structure and position of the regional shallow circulation and allows more of the intense convective systems that determine seasonal rain accumulation. These processes can explain the observed interannual to multidecadal variability. Sea surface temperature anomalies were the dominant forcing of the drought of the 1970s and 1980s. In most recent decades, seasonal rainfall amounts have partially recovered, but rainy season characteristics have changed: rainfall is more intense and intermittent and wetting is concentrated in the late rainy season and away from the west coast. Similar subseasonal and subregional differences in rainfall trends characterize the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. While uncertainty in future projections remains, confidence in them is encouraged by the recognition that seasonal mean rainfall depends on large-scale drivers of atmospheric circulations that are well resolved by current climate models. Nevertheless, observational and modeling efforts are needed to provide more refined projections of rainfall changes, expanding beyond total accumulation to metrics of intraseasonal characteristics and risk of extreme events, and coordination between climate scientists and stakeholders is needed to generate relevant information that is useful even under deep uncertainty. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends {\textgreater} Modern Climate Change.},
author = {Biasutti, Michela},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.591},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
keywords = {climate change,drought,sahel},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {1--22},
title = {{Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.591},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Biasutti2018,
abstract = {Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the inter- tropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, dispa- rate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.},
author = {Biasutti, Michela and Voigt, Aiko and Boos, William R. and Braconnot, Pascale and Hargreaves, Julia C. and Harrison, Sandy P. and Kang, Sarah M. and Mapes, Brian E. and Scheff, Jacob and Schumacher, Courtney and Sobel, Adam H. and Xie, Shang-Ping and Biasutti},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-018-0137-1},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {392--400},
title = {{Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0137-1},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bierkens2015,
abstract = {Between 15 and 17 March 2010, a workshop was held at Princeton University entitled `Meeting a Grand Challenge to Hydrology: The Global Monitoring of Earth's Terrestrial Water'. The goal of this workshop was to assess the need for developing hyper-resolution (0.1-1 km) global hydrology and land surface models and to make an inventory on what obstacles need to be overcome to make hyper-resolution models a reality. The primary output from this workshop was a position paper formulating a number of science questions that would benefit from hyper-resolution modelling and key challenges to overcome to make this possible (see Wood et al., 2011).},
author = {Bierkens, Marc F. P. and Bell, Victoria A. and Burek, Peter and Chaney, Nathaniel and Condon, Laura E. and David, C{\'{e}}dric H. and de Roo, Ad and D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and Drost, Niels and Famiglietti, James S. and Fl{\"{o}}rke, Martina and Gochis, David J. and Houser, Paul and Hut, Rolf and Keune, Jessica and Kollet, Stefan and Maxwell, Reed M. and Reager, John T. and Samaniego, Luis and Sudicky, Edward and Sutanudjaja, Edwin H. and van de Giesen, Nick and Winsemius, Hessel and Wood, Eric F.},
doi = {10.1002/hyp.10391},
isbn = {1099-1085},
issn = {08856087},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {310--320},
title = {{Hyper-resolution global hydrological modelling: what is next?}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.10391},
volume = {29},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bierkens2019ERL,
abstract = {Population growth, economic development, and dietary changes have drastically increased the demand for food and water. The resulting expansion of irrigated agriculture into semi-arid areas with limited precipitation and surface water has greatly increased the dependence of irrigated crops on groundwater withdrawal. Also, the increasing number of people living in mega-cities without access to clean surface water or piped drinking water has drastically increased urban groundwater use. The result of these trends has been the steady increase of the use of non-renewable groundwater resources and associated high rates of aquifer depletion around the globe. We present a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art in research on non-renewable groundwater use and groundwater depletion. We start with a section defining the concepts of non-renewable groundwater, fossil groundwater and groundwater depletion and place these concepts in a hydrogeological perspective. We pay particular attention to the interaction between groundwater withdrawal, recharge and surface water which is critical to understanding sustainable groundwater withdrawal. We provide an overview of methods that have been used to estimate groundwater depletion, followed by an extensive review of global and regional depletion estimates, the adverse impacts of groundwater depletion and the hydroeconomics of groundwater use. We end this review with an outlook for future research based on main research gaps and challenges identified. This review shows that both the estimates of current depletion rates and the future availability of non-renewable groundwater are highly uncertain and that considerable data and research challenges need to be overcome if we hope to reduce this uncertainty in the near future.},
author = {Bierkens, Marc F P and Wada, Yoshihide},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab1a5f},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {6},
pages = {63002},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Non-renewable groundwater use and groundwater depletion: a review}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2Fab1a5f},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{IPCCDetectionAttributionBindoff2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Bindoff, N L and Stott, P.A. A and AchutaRao, K M and Allen, Myles R. and Gillett, N and Gutzler, D and Hansingo, K and Hegerl, G and Hu, Y and Jain, S and Mokhov, Igor I. and Overland, J and Perlwitz, Judith and Sebbari, R and Zhang, X. and Hu, S and Mokhov, Igor I. and Overpeck, J. and Perlwitz, Judith and Sebbari, R and Zhang, X.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {10},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.022},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {867--952},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional}},
type = {Book Section},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Bintanja2014,
abstract = {Precipitation changes projected for the end of the twenty-first century show an increase of more than 50 per cent in the Arctic regions. This marked increase, which is among the highest globally, has previously been attributed primarily to enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes. Here we use state-of-the-art global climate models to show that the projected increases in Arctic precipitation over the twenty-first century, which peak in late autumn and winter, are instead due mainly to strongly intensified local surface evaporation (maximum in winter), and only to a lesser degree due to enhanced moisture inflow from lower latitudes (maximum in late summer and autumn). Moreover, we show that the enhanced surface evaporation results mainly from retreating winter sea ice, signalling an amplified Arctic hydrological cycle. This demonstrates that increases in Arctic precipitation are firmly linked to Arctic warming and sea-ice decline. As a result, the Arctic mean precipitation sensitivity (4.5 per cent increase per degree of temperature warming) is much larger than the global value (1.6 to 1.9 per cent per kelvin). The associated seasonally varying increase in Arctic precipitation is likely to increase river discharge and snowfall over ice sheets (thereby affecting global sea level), and could even affect global climate through freshening of the Arctic Ocean and subsequent modulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.},
author = {Bintanja, R. and Selten, F. M.},
doi = {10.1038/nature13259},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7501},
pages = {479--482},
pmid = {24805239},
title = {{Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat}},
volume = {509},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Bintanja2017,
abstract = {Climate models project a strong increase in Arctic precipitation over the coming century 1 , which has been attributed primarily to enhanced surface evaporation associated with sea-ice retreat 2. Since the Arctic is still quite cold, especially in winter, it is often (implicitly) assumed that the additional precipitation will fall mostly as snow 3. However, little is known about future changes in the distributions of rainfall and snowfall in the Arctic. Here we use 37 state-of-the-art climate models in standardized twenty-first-century (2006-2100) simulations 4 to show a decrease in average annual Arctic snowfall (70 •-90 • N), despite the strong precipitation increase. Rain is projected to become the dominant form of precipitation in the Arctic region (2091-2100), as atmospheric warming causes a greater fraction of snowfall to melt before it reaches the surface, in particular over the North Atlantic and the Barents Sea. The reduction in Arctic snowfall is most pronounced during summer and autumn when temperatures are close to the melting point, but also winter rainfall is found to intensify considerably. Projected (seasonal) trends in rainfall and snowfall will heavily impact Arctic hydrology (for example, river discharge, permafrost melt) 5-7 , climatology (for example, snow, sea-ice albedo and melt) 8,9 and ecology (for example, water and food availability) 5,10. Changes in surface evaporation, atmospheric water vapour content and moisture transports modulate precipitation rates. Globally, precipitation is projected to increase at only about 2{\%} per degree warming owing mainly to infrared radiation constraints 11. Regional precipitation changes, however, can diverge considerably from this global value. In the Arctic, for instance, precipitation rates have been shown to increase much faster than the global rate (4.5{\%} per degree) 2. This has been attributed primarily to sea-ice retreat, with open water allowing more evaporation, cloud formation and precipitation. Increased moisture transport from southerly latitudes was found to be of secondary importance, but both contributions (local and remote) exhibit considerable seasonal variations 2,12. In any case, projected increases in Arctic precipitation of over 50{\%} (model-mean value) during the coming century (see Supplementary Information) are conclusively linked to amplified Arctic warming 2. All current climate models depict an increase in Arctic precipitation (albeit at different magnitude), which can thus be regarded as a robust feature of projected climate change. Therefore, potentially broad and long-lasting impacts of increased Arctic precipitation on hydrology 13 , climate feedbacks 9 , ice-sheet mass balance and flow speed 14 , sea ice, ocean circulation 2 and biology/ecosystems 5 should be taken into consideration. The issue of increased Arctic precipitation and its possible consequences is complicated, however, by the fact that in cold regions such as the Arctic, precipitation can fall as either rain or snow, depending primarily on the ambient atmospheric temperature 6,9. With projected Arctic warming varying considerably with season (strong in winter, moderate in summer) 15 , the seasonally varying fraction of rain/snow will inevitably change as well. Whereas increased precipitation leads to more snowfall, higher atmospheric temperatures tend to reduce snowfall 16. Because of these opposing mechanisms, whose magnitude varies with location and season, it is a priori unclear whether Arctic warming will reduce or enhance total Arctic snowfall. In any case, a changing ratio of liquid to solid Arctic precipitation may have broad and wide-ranging consequences for: hydrology, as it governs the seasonality of snow cover 17 as well as snow melt and runoff 6 (thereby modulating Arctic Ocean salin-ity 2,18); climatology, for instance because it affects the surface reflec-tivity of snow-covered regions and of sea ice (snowfall increases the snow albedo, whereas rain will reduce the albedo by increasing the snow grain size 19 , and reinforce snowmelt), and because it reinforces ice-sheet melt rates and flow speeds 14 ; biology/ecosystems, since for instance winter rainfall and icing have been shown to inhibit reindeer food availability 10 , causing a dramatic population decline and associated strong fluctuations in the fragile Arctic ecosystem; economy, with more frequent icing conditions causing infrastructural and related problems 20. For these and other reasons, it is of vital importance to quantify future changes in Arctic precipitation in terms of the rain/snow fraction. Here we use output from 37 state-of-the-art global climate models within the framework of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercom-parison Project, phase 5) 4 to analyse projected seasonally varying trends in Arctic (70 •-90 • N) precipitation, including the subdivision between rainfall and snowfall. For this purpose we use standardized simulations for the period 2006-2100 based on intermediate and strong forcing scenarios 4 (see Methods). In the current climate (2006-2015), snowfall governs precipitation in the frigid central Arctic and in the high-elevation expanses of Greenland with 70 to 100{\%} of the annual precipitation falling as snow (Fig. 1a). The annual snowfall fraction, defined as the ratio of snowfall and total precipitation, drops to 40{\%} in the milder peripheral regions of the Arctic. Nevertheless, the majority of annual and total Arctic precipitation currently falls as snow 21. Towards the end of the twenty-first century (2091-2100), however, with Arctic precipitation rates increasing by 50 to 60{\%} (Supplementary Information), the simulated snowfall fraction reduces dramatically with only Greenland continuing to experience snowfall fractions over 80{\%} (Fig. 1b). In the central Arctic, the snowfall fraction barely remains larger than 50{\%}, and precipitation will be dominated by rainfall in much of the Arctic. The most dramatic reductions in snowfall fraction will occur over the North Atlantic and especially the Barents Sea (Fig. 1c) 22 , where most climate models project strong twenty-first-century surface warming (Supplementary Information). With Arctic warming causing a ubiquitous increase in precipitation as well as an overall decrease in snowfall fraction, the question is how, according to the climate models, these opposing effects translate into twenty-first-century trends in Arctic rainfall and snowfall.},
author = {Bintanja, R. and Andry, O.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3240},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {263--267},
title = {{Towards a rain-dominated Arctic}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3240},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Birch2015a,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2015 American Meteorological Society. There are some long-established biases in atmospheric models that originate from the representation of tropical convection. Previously, it has been difficult to separate cause and effect because errors are often the result of a number of interacting biases. Recently, researchers have gained the ability to run multiyear global climate model simulations with grid spacings small enough to switch the convective parameterization off, which permits the convection to develop explicitly. There are clear improvements to the initiation of convective storms and the diurnal cycle of rainfall in the convection-permitting simulations, which enables a new process-study approach to model bias identification. In this study, multiyear global atmosphere-only climate simulations with and without convective parameterization are undertaken with the Met Office Unified Model and are analyzed over the Maritime Continent region, where convergence from sea-breeze circulations is key for convection initiation. The analysis shows that, although the simulation with parameterized convection is able to reproduce the key rain-forming sea-breeze circulation, the parameterization is not able to respond realistically to the circulation. A feedback of errors also occurs: the convective parameterization causes rain to fall in the early morning, which cools and wets the boundary layer, reducing the land-sea temperature contrast and weakening the sea breeze. This is, however, an effect of the convective bias, rather than a cause of it. Improvements to how and when convection schemes trigger convection will improve both the timing and location of tropical rainfall and representation of sea-breeze circulations.},
author = {Birch, Cathryn E. and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Garcia-Carreras, Luis and Ackerley, Duncan and Reeder, Michael J. and Lock, Adrian P. and Schiemann, Reinhard},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00850.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atm/Ocean Structure/Phenomena,Convective parameterization,Diurnal effects,General circulation models,Geographic location/entity,Maritime Continent,Models and modeling,Precipitation,Sea breezes,Variability},
number = {20},
pages = {8093--8108},
title = {{Sea-breeze dynamics and convection initiation: The influence of convective parameterization in weather and climate model biases}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bird2011,
abstract = {Decadal and centennial mean state changes in South American summer monsoon (SASM) precipitation during the last 2,300 years are detailed using an annually resolved authigenic calcite record of precipitation $\delta$18O from a varved lake in the Central Peruvian Andes. This unique sediment record shows that $\delta$18O peaked during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) from A.D. 900 to 1100, providing evidence that the SASM weakened considerably during this period. Minimum $\delta$18O values occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA) between A.D. 1400 and 1820, reflecting a prolonged intensification of the SASM that was regionally synchronous. After the LIA, $\delta$18O increased rapidly, particularly during the current warm period (CWP; A.D. 1900 to present), indicating a return to reduced SASM precipitation that was more abrupt and sustained than the onset of the MCA. Diminished SASM precipitation during the MCA and CWP tracks reconstructed Northern Hemisphere and North Atlantic warming and a northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Atlantic, and likely the Pacific. Intensified SASM precipitation during the LIA follows reconstructed Northern Hemisphere and North Atlantic cooling, El Ni{\~{n}}o-like warming in the Pacific, and a southward displacement of the ITCZ over both oceans. These results suggest that SASM mean state changes are sensitive to ITCZ variability as mediated by Western Hemisphere tropical sea surface temperatures, particularly in the Atlantic. Continued Northern Hemisphere and North Atlantic warming may therefore help perpetuate the recent reductions in SASM precipitation that characterize the last 100 years, which would negatively impact Andean water resources.},
author = {Bird, Broxton W and Abbott, Mark B and Vuille, Mathias and Rodbell, Donald T and Stansell, Nathan D and Rosenmeier, Michael F},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1003719108},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {21},
pages = {8583--8588},
title = {{A 2,300-year-long annually resolved record of the South American summer monsoon from the Peruvian Andes}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/108/21/8583.abstract},
volume = {108},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Bird2011a,
abstract = {Oxygen isotope ratios of authigenic calcite ($\delta$18Ocal) measured at annual to decadal resolution from Laguna Pumacocha document Andean precipitation variability during the last 11,200years. Modern limnological data show that Pumacocha $\delta$18Ocal reflects the average annual isotopic composition of the lake's surface waters ($\delta$18Olw), and that $\delta$18Olw tracks the isotopic composition of precipitation ($\delta$18Oprecip), which is largely controlled by the intensity of the South American summer monsoon (SASM). Based on these relationships we use down-core $\delta$18Ocal measurements as a proxy for $\delta$18Oprecip that varies with the intensity of SASM precipitation. Pumacocha $\delta$18Ocal increased rapidly between 11,200 and 10,300yrB.P. from -14.5{\%} to -10.5{\%}, reaching a maximum of -10.3{\%} by 9800yrB.P. After 9800yrB.P., $\delta$18Ocal underwent a long-term decrease that tracked increasing Southern Hemisphere summer insolation, suggesting that enhanced SASM precipitation was linked to precessional forcing. Higher-frequency trends did not follow insolation and therefore represent other variability in the climate system. Millennial-scale trends from Pumacocha strongly resemble those from lower-resolution tropical Andean ice and lake core isotopic records, particularly the Huascaran ice core, and low elevation speleothems. These relationships suggest that tropical Andean isotopic records reflect variations in precipitation intensity related to precessional forcing rather than tropical temperatures. They also demonstrate a coherent pattern of SASM variability, although with differences between low elevation and Andean records during the late Glacial to Holocene transition and the late Holocene. Centennial and decadal SASM precipitation variability is also apparent. Reduced SASM rainfall occurred from 10,000-9200, 7000-5000, 1500-900yrB.P. and during the last 100years. Intensifications of the SASM occurred at 5000, 2200-1500, and 550-130yrB.P. with the amplitude of variability increasing after 2200yrB.P. These periods may represent SASM responses to ocean-atmosphere variability related to orbital and radiative forcing (e.g., El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone). {\textcopyright} 2011 Elsevier B.V.},
author = {Bird, Broxton W. and Abbott, Mark B. and Rodbell, Donald T. and Vuille, Mathias},
doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2011.08.040},
issn = {0012821X},
journal = {Earth and Planetary Science Letters},
keywords = {Abrupt climate change,Lake sediments,Oxygen isotopes,Precessional forcing,South American summer monsoon},
number = {3-4},
pages = {192--202},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Holocene tropical South American hydroclimate revealed from a decadally resolved lake sediment $\delta$18O record}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.08.040},
volume = {310},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Bischoff2014,
abstract = {The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) can shift meridionally on seasonal and longer time scales. Previous studies have shown that the latitude of the ITCZ is negatively correlated with cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport. For example, the ITCZ shifts southward as the Northern Hemisphere cools and the northward cross-equatorial energy transport strengthens in response. It has remained unclear what controls the sensitivity of the ITCZ position to cross-equatorial energy transport and what other factors may lead to shifts of the ITCZ position. Here it is shown that the sensitivity of the ITCZ position to cross-equatorial energy transport depends on the net energy input to the equatorial atmosphere: the net radiative energy input minus any energy uptake by the oceans. Changes in this energy input can also lead to ITCZ shifts. The cross-equatorial energy transport is related through a series of approximations to interhemispheric asymmetries in the near-surface temperature distribution. The resulting theory of the ITCZ position is tested in idealized general circulation model simulations with a slab ocean as lower boundary condition. In the simulations, cross-equatorial energy transport increases under global warming (primarily because extratropical latent energy fluxes strengthen), and this shifts the ITCZ poleward. The ITCZ shifts equatorward if primarily the tropics warm in response to an increased net energy input to the equatorial atmosphere. The results have implications for explaining the varied response of the ITCZ to global or primarily tropical changes in the atmospheric energy balance, such as those that occur under global warming or El Ni{\~{n}}o.},
author = {Bischoff, Tobias and Schneider, Tapio},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00650.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Climate change,Energy transport,Fluxes,Large-scale motions,Precipitation},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {4937--4951},
title = {{Energetic Constraints on the Position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00650.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Bloschl2019,
abstract = {Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results—arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far—suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.},
author = {Bl{\"{o}}schl, G{\"{u}}nter and Hall, Julia and Viglione, Alberto and Perdig{\~{a}}o, Rui and Parajka, Rui and Merz, Bruno and Lun, David and Arheimer, Berit and Aronica, Giuseppe and Bilibashi, Ardian and Boh{\'{a}}{\v{c}}, Miloň and Bonacci, Ognjen and Borga, Marco and {\v{C}}anjevac, Ivan and Castellarin, Attilio and Chirico, Giovanni and Claps, Pierluigi and Frolova, Natalia and Ganora, Daniele and Gorbachova, Liudmyla and G{\"{u}}l, Ali and Hannaford, Jamie and Harrigan, Shaun and Kireeva, Maria and Kiss, Andrea and Kjeldsen, Thomas and Kohnov{\'{a}}, Silvia and Koskela, Jarkko and Ledvinka, Ondrej and Macdonald, N and Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria and Mediero, Luis and Merz, Ralf and Molnar, Peter and Montanari, Alberto and Murphy, Conor and Osuch, Marzena and Ovcharuk, Valeryia and Radevski, Ivan and Salinas, Jos{\'{e}} and Sauquet, Eric and {\v{S}}raj, Mojca and Szolgay, Jan and Volpi, Elena and Wilson, Donna and Zaimi, Klodian and {\v{Z}}ivkovi{\'{c}}, Nenad},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7772},
pages = {108--111},
title = {{Changing climate both increases and decreases European floods}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6},
volume = {573},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Blunden2020,
abstract = {In 2019, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere continued to increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface was 409.8 ± 0.1 ppm, an increase of 2.5 ± 0.1 ppm over 2018, and the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contributed 3.14 W m−2 to radiative forcing, representing a 45{\%} increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65{\%} of this radiative forcing. The annual net global uptake of {\~{}}2.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide by oceans was the highest in the record dating to 1982 and 33{\%} higher than the 1997–2017 average. A weak El Ni{\~{n}}o at the beginning of 2019 transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions by mid-year. Even so, the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the three highest in records dating to the mid- to late 1800s. July 2019 was Earth's hottest month on record. Well over a dozen countries across Africa, Europe, Asia, Australia, and the Caribbean reported record high annual temperatures. In North America, Alaska experienced its warmest year on record, while the high northern latitudes that encompass the Arctic were second warmest, behind only 2016. Stations in several countries, including Vietnam, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, and the United Kingdom, set new all-time daily high temperature records for their nations. Australia set a new nationally averaged daily maximum temperature record of 41.9°C on 18 December, breaking the previous record set in 2013 by 1.6°C. Daily temperatures surpassed 40°C for the first time in Belgium and the Netherlands. Lake temperatures increased on average across the globe in 2019; observed lakes in the Northern Hemisphere were covered in ice seven days fewer than the 1981–2010 average, according to phenological indicators. Over land, the growing season was an average of eight days longer than the 2000–10 average in the NH. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third highest to record high, and the lower stratosphere temperature was third lowest to record low, depending on the dataset analyzed. Middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures were lowest on record since satellite records began in 1979. In September, Antarctica experienced a dramatic upper-atmosphere warming event that led to the smallest ozone hole since the early 1980s. Below-average Ant{\ldots}},
author = {Blunden, J. and Arndt, D.S},
doi = {10.1175/2019BAMSStateoftheClimate.1},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {9},
pages = {Si--S429},
title = {{State of the climate in 2019}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/8/2020BAMSStateoftheClimate.xml},
volume = {100},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Boe2014c,
abstract = {Abstract. In this article, multi-decadal variations in the French hydroclimate are investigated, with a specific focus on river flows. Based on long observed series, it is shown that river flows in France generally exhibit large multi-decadal variations in the instrumental period (defined in this study as the period from the late 19th century to the present), especially in spring. Differences of means between 21yr periods of the 20th century as large as 40{\%} are indeed found for many gauging stations. Multi-decadal spring river flow variations are associated with variations in spring precipitation and temperature. These multi-decadal variations in precipitation are themselves found to be driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation, more precisely by a multi-decadal oscillation in a sea level pressure dipole between western Europe and the eastern Atlantic. It is suggested that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, the main mode of multi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic–Europe sector, controls those variations in large-scale circulation and is therefore the main ultimate driver of multi-decadal variations in spring river flows. Potential multi-decadal variations in river flows in other seasons, and in particular summer, are also noted. As they are not associated with significant surface climate anomalies (i.e. temperature, precipitation) in summer, other mechanisms are investigated based on hydrological simulations. The impact of climate variations in spring on summer soil moisture, and the impact of soil moisture in summer on the runoff-to-precipitation ratio, could potentially play a role in multi-decadal summer river flow variations. The large amplitude of the multi-decadal variations in French river flows suggests that internal variability may play a very important role in the evolution of river flows during the next decades, potentially temporarily limiting, reversing or seriously aggravating the long-term impacts of anthropogenic climate change.},
author = {Bo{\'{e}}, J. and Habets, F.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-18-691-2014},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {691--708},
title = {{Multi-decadal river flow variations in France}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/691/2014/},
volume = {18},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Boe2020a,
abstract = {We assess the differences of future climate changes over Europe in summer as projected by state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCM, from the EURO-Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) and by their forcing global climate models (GCM, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and study the associated physical mechanisms. We show that important discrepancies at large-scales exist between global and regional projections. The RCMs project at the end of the 21st century over a large area of Europe a summer warming 1.5–2 K colder, and a much smaller decrease of precipitation of 5{\%}, versus 20{\%} in their driving GCMs. The RCMs generally simulate a much smaller increase in shortwave radiation at surface, which directly impacts surface temperature. In addition to differences in cloud cover changes, the absence of time-varying anthropogenic aerosols in most regional simulations plays a major role in the differences of solar radiation changes. We confirm this result with twin regional simulations with and without time-varying anthropogenic aerosols. Additionally, the RCMs simulate larger increases in evapotranspiration over the Mediterranean sea and larger increases/smaller decreases over land, which contribute to smaller changes in relative humidity, with likely impacts on clouds and precipitation changes. Several potential causes of these differences in evapotranspiration changes are discussed. Overall, this work suggests that the current EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble does not capture the upper part of the climate change uncertainty range, with important implications for impact studies and the adaptation policies that they inform.},
author = {Bo{\'{e}}, Julien and Somot, Samuel and Corre, Lola and Nabat, Pierre},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Anthropogenic aerosols,Climate change,Europe,Evapotranspiration,Regional climate},
month = {mar},
number = {5-6},
pages = {2981--3002},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2887-3 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Bodian2016,
abstract = {R{\'{E}}SUM{\'{E}}L'objectif de cet article est d'analyser {\`{a}} l'{\'{e}}chelle du bassin du fleuve S{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}gal l'{\'{e}}volution de quatre classes de pr{\'{e}}cipitations journali{\`{e}}res, le nombre de jours de pluie et la dur{\'{e}}e de la saison des pluies. La m{\'{e}}thode consiste {\`{a}} appliquer des tests statistiques d'homog{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}it{\'{e}} aux s{\'{e}}ries de pluies annuelles sur la p{\'{e}}riode 1950–1998 pour d{\'{e}}tecter des ruptures et caract{\'{e}}riser l'{\'{e}}volution de ces six variables de part et d'autre des dates de rupture. Les s{\'{e}}ries de pluie annuelle pr{\'{e}}sentent une rupture entre 1966 et 1970. Les d{\'{e}}ficits de jours pluvieux de la p{\'{e}}riode apr{\`{e}}s rupture par rapport {\`{a}} celle d'avant varient entre 6,2{\%} {\`{a}} K{\'{e}}dougou et 38,6{\%} {\`{a}} Saint Louis. La classe de pluie de plus de 50 mm (P4) pr{\'{e}}sente les d{\'{e}}ficits les plus importants qui varient entre 14,8{\%} {\`{a}} la station de Mamou et 66,6{\%} {\`{a}} la station de Nioro du Sahel.},
author = {Bodian, A. and Ndiaye, O. and Dacosta, H.},
doi = {10.1080/02626667.2014.950584},
issn = {0262-6667},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
keywords = {Senegal River,classe pluviom{\'{e}}trique,climate variability,drought,fleuve S{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}gal,rainfall class,s{\'{e}}cheresse,tests d'homog{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}it{\'{e}},tests of homogeneity,variabilit{\'{e}} climatique},
month = {feb},
number = {5},
pages = {905--913},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Evolution des caract{\'{e}}ristiques des pluies journali{\`{e}}res dans le bassin versant du fleuve S{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}gal: Aavant et apr{\`{e}}s rupture}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2014.950584},
volume = {61},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Boers2017,
abstract = {The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40{\%} in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback},
author = {Boers, Niklas and Marwan, Norbert and Barbosa, Henrique M.J. and Kurths, J{\"{u}}rgen},
doi = {10.1038/srep41489},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {December 2016},
pages = {1--9},
pmid = {15541862},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep41489},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Boisier2016,
abstract = {Within large uncertainties in the precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing, the Southeast Pacific drying stands out as a robust signature within climate models. A precipitation decline, of consistent direction but of larger amplitude than obtained in simulations with historical climate forcing, has been observed in central Chile since the late 1970s. To attribute the causes of this trend, we analyze local rain gauge data and contrast them to a large ensemble of both fully coupled and sea surface temperature-forced simulations. We show that in concomitance with large-scale circulation changes, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation explains about half of the precipitation trend observed in central Chile. The remaining fraction is unlikely to be driven exclusively by natural phenomena but rather consistent with the simulated regional effect of anthropogenic climate change. We particularly estimate that a quarter of the rainfall deficit affecting this region since 2010 is of anthropogenic origin. An increased persistence and recurrence of droughts in central Chile emerges then as a realistic scenario under the current socioeconomic pathway.},
author = {Boisier, Juan Pablo and Rondanelli, Roberto and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} D. and Mu{\~{n}}oz, Francisca},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL067265},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Pacific Decadal Oscillation,Southeast Pacific,central Chile,climate change attribution,drought,precipitation},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {413--421},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Southeast Pacific precipitation decline and recent megadrought in central Chile}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067265 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL067265 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015GL067265},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Boisier2015,
abstract = {The vulnerability of Amazonian rainforest, and the ecological services it provides, depends on an adequate supply of dry-season water, either as precipitation or stored soil moisture. How the rain-bearing South American monsoon will evolve across the twenty-first century is thus a question of major interest. Extensive savanization, with its loss of forest carbon stock and uptake capacity, is an extreme although very uncertain scenario. We show that the contrasting rainfall projections simulated for Amazonia by 36 global climate models (GCMs) can be reproduced with empirical precipitation models, calibrated with historical GCM data as functions of the large-scale circulation. A set of these simple models was therefore calibrated with observations and used to constrain the GCM simulations. In agreement with the current hydrologic trends, the resulting projection towards the end of the twenty-first century is for a strengthening of the monsoon seasonal cycle, and a dry-season lengthening in southern Amazonia. With this approach, the increase in the area subjected to lengthy - savannah-prone - dry seasons is substantially larger than the GCM-simulated one. Our results confirm the dominant picture shown by the state-of-the-art GCMs, but suggest that the {\^{a}} € model democracy'view of these impacts can be significantly underestimated.},
author = {Boisier, Juan P. and Ciais, Philippe and Ducharne, Agn{\`{e}}s and Guimberteau, Matthieu},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2658},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {7},
pages = {656--660},
title = {{Projected strengthening of Amazonian dry season by constrained climate model simulations}},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Boisier2018,
abstract = {The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30-48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend's seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures.},
author = {Boisier, Juan P. and Alvarez-Garret{\'{o}}n, Camila and Cordero, Ra{\'{u}}l R. and Damiani, Alessandro and Gallardo, Laura and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} D. and Lambert, Fabrice and Ramallo, Cinthya and Rojas, Maisa and Rondanelli, Roberto and Alvarez-Garreton, Camila and Cordero, Ra{\'{u}}l R. and Damiani, Alessandro and Gallardo, Laura and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} D. and Lambert, Fabrice and Ramallo, Cinthya and Rojas, Maisa and Rondanelli, Roberto and Alvarez-Garret{\'{o}}n, Camila and Cordero, Ra{\'{u}}l R. and Damiani, Alessandro and Gallardo, Laura and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} D. and Lambert, Fabrice and Ramallo, Cinthya and Rojas, Maisa and Rondanelli, Roberto},
doi = {10.1525/elementa.328},
issn = {2325-1026},
journal = {Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene},
keywords = {Chile,Climate change,Drought,Drying trends,Greenhouse gas and ozone depletion,Southern annular mode},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {74},
title = {{Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations}},
url = {https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.328/},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bolch2010,
abstract = {We report on a glacier inventory for the Canadian Cordillera south of 60°N, across the two western provinces of British Columbia and Alberta, containing {\~{}}30,000km2 of glacierized terrain. Our semi-automated method extracted glacier extents from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes for 2005 and 2000 using a band ratio (TM3/TM5). We compared these extents with glacier cover for the mid-1980s from high-altitude, aerial photography for British Columbia and from Landsat TM imagery for Alberta. A 25m digital elevation model (DEM) helped to identify debris-covered ice and to split the glaciers into their respective drainage basins. The estimated mapping errors are 3–4{\%} and arise primarily from seasonal snow cover. Glaciers in British Columbia and Alberta respectively lost −10.8±3.8{\%} and −25.4{\%}±4.1{\%} of their area over the period 1985–2005. The region-wide annual shrinkage rate of −0.55{\%} a−1 is comparable to rates reported for other mountain ranges in the late twentieth century. Least glacierized mountain ranges with smaller glaciers lost the largest fraction of ice cover: the highest relative ice loss in British Columbia (−24.0±4.6{\%}) occurred in the northern Interior Ranges, while glaciers in the northern Coast Mountains declined least (−7.7±3.4{\%}).},
author = {Bolch, Tobias and Menounos, Brian and Wheate, Roger},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.015},
issn = {0034-4257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {Band ratio,Glacier inventory,Glacier recession,Image classification,Landsat TM,Scaling method,Western Canada},
number = {1},
pages = {127--137},
title = {{Landsat-based inventory of glaciers in western Canada, 1985–2005}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425709002661},
volume = {114},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Bollasina2011,
abstract = {Observations show that South Asia underwent a widespread summertime drying during the second half of the 20th century, but it is unclear whether this trend was due to natural variations or human activities. We used a series of climate model experiments to investigate the South Asian monsoon response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. We find that the observed precipitation decrease can be attributed mainly to human-influenced aerosol emissions. The drying is a robust outcome of a slowdown of the tropical meridional overturning circulation, which compensates for the aerosol-induced energy imbalance between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These results provide compelling evidence of the prominent role of aerosols in shaping regional climate change over South Asia.},
author = {Bollasina, Massimo A. and Ming, Yi and Ramaswamy, V.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1204994},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {oct},
number = {6055},
pages = {502--505},
pmid = {21960529},
title = {{Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian Summer Monsoon}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1204994},
volume = {334},
year = {2011}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2013GL058183,
abstract = {Abstract The late twentieth century response of the South Asian monsoon to changes in anthropogenic aerosols from local (i.e., South Asia) and remote (i.e., outside South Asia) sources was investigated using historical simulations with a state-of-the-art climate model. The observed summertime drying over India is replaced by widespread wettening once local aerosol emissions are kept at preindustrial levels while all the other forcings evolve. Constant remote aerosol emissions partially suppress the precipitation decrease. While predominant precipitation changes over India are thus associated with local aerosols, remote aerosols contribute as well, especially in favoring an earlier monsoon onset in June and enhancing summertime rainfall over the northwestern regions. Conversely, temperature and near-surface circulation changes over South Asia are more effectively driven by remote aerosols. These changes are reflected into northward cross-equatorial anomalies in the atmospheric energy transport induced by both local and, to a greater extent, remote aerosols.},
author = {Bollasina, Massimo A and Ming, Yi and Ramaswamy, V and Schwarzkopf, M Daniel and Naik, Vaishali},
doi = {10.1002/2013GL058183},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Anthropogenic Aerosols,Local and remote sources,South Asian Monsoon},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {680--687},
title = {{Contribution of local and remote anthropogenic aerosols to the twentieth century weakening of the South Asian Monsoon}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2013GL058183 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013GL058183},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@techreport{Meteorology2020,
abstract = {The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO play an important role in monitoring, analysing and communicating observed and future changes in Australia's climate. This sixth biennial State of the Climate report draws on the latest climate research, encompassing observations, analyses and projections to describe year-to-year variability and longer-term changes in Australia's climate. The report is a synthesis of the science informing our understanding of climate in Australia and includes new information about Australia's climate of the past, present and future. The science informs a range of economic, environmental and social decision-making by governments, industries and communities. Observations, reconstructions and climate modelling paint a consistent picture of ongoing, long-term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability. Associated changes in weather and climate extremes—such as extreme heat, heavy rainfall and coastal inundation, fire weather and drought—have a large impact on the health and wellbeing of our communities and ecosystems. They affect the lives and livelihoods of all Australians. Australia needs to plan for and adapt to the changing nature of climate risk now and in the decades ahead. Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions will lead to less warming and fewer impacts in the future.},
author = {BoM and CSIRO},
isbn = {978-1-4863-1509-3},
pages = {24},
publisher = {Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)},
title = {{State of the Climate}},
url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Bonan2014,
abstract = {The empirical Ball–Berry stomatal conductance model is commonly used in Earth system models to simulate biotic regulation of evapotranspiration. However, the dependence of stomatal conductance (gs) on vapor pressure deficit (Ds) and soil moisture must both be empirically parameterized. We evaluated the Ball–Berry model used in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and an alternative stomatal conductance model that links leaf gas exchange, plant hydraulic constraints, and the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum (SPA) to numerically optimize photosynthetic carbon gain per unit water loss while preventing leaf water potential dropping below a critical minimum level. We evaluated two alternative optimization algorithms: intrinsic water-use efficiency ($\Delta$ An/$\Delta$ gs, the marginal carbon gain of stomatal opening) and water-use efficiency ($\Delta$ An/$\Delta$ El, the marginal carbon gain of water loss). We implemented the stomatal models in a multi-layer plant canopy model, to resolve profiles of gas exchange, leaf water potential, and plant hydraulics within the canopy, and evaluated the simulations using: (1) leaf analyses; (2) canopy net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and gross primary production at six AmeriFlux sites spanning 51 site–years; and (3) parameter sensitivity analyses. Without soil moisture stress, the performance of the SPA stomatal conductance model was generally comparable to or somewhat better than the Ball–Berry model in flux tower simulations, but was significantly better than the Ball–Berry model when there was soil moisture stress. Functional dependence of gs on soil moisture emerged from the physiological theory linking leaf water-use efficiency and water flow to and from the leaf along the soil-to-leaf pathway rather than being imposed a priori, as in the Ball–Berry model. Similar functional dependence of gs on Ds emerged from the water-use efficiency optimization. Sensitivity analyses showed that two parameters (stomatal efficiency and root hydraulic conductivity) minimized errors with the SPA stomatal conductance model. The critical stomatal efficiency for optimization ($\iota$) was estimated from leaf trait datasets and is related to the slope parameter (g1) of the Ball–Berry model. The optimized parameter value was consistent with this estimate. Optimized root hydraulic conductivity was consistent with estimates from literature surveys. The two central concepts embodied in the stomatal model, that plants account for both water-use efficiency and for hydraulic safety in regulating stomatal conductance, imply a notion of optimal plant strategies and provide testable model hypotheses, rather than empirical descriptions of plant behavior.},
author = {Bonan, G. B. and Williams, M. and Fisher, R. A. and Oleson, K. W.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-7-2193-2014},
isbn = {1991-9603},
issn = {19919603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {5},
pages = {2193--2222},
title = {{Modeling stomatal conductance in the earth system: Linking leaf water-use efficiency and water transport along the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum}},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{bonan2018climate,
abstract = {Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources.},
author = {Bonan, Gordon B. and Doney, Scott C.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aam8328},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {10959203},
journal = {Science},
number = {6375},
pages = {eaam8328},
pmid = {29420265},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models}},
volume = {359},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bonfils2017,
abstract = {AbstractThe 2011-2016 Californian drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the 21st century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the aridity changes driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming-induced increased evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions in which aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO, and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range caused by ENSO variability. Insights into the drivers of these aridity changes are obtained in simulations with incremental addition of three different factors to current climate: ocean warming, vegetation response to elevated CO2 levels, and intensified CO2 radiative forcing. The effect of ocean warming overwhelms the ra...},
annote = {aridity increases in {\~{}}70{\%} of regions where aridity sensitive to ENSO, but only 40{\%} when aridity indicator for soil moisture used due to physiological effects for enhanced CO2},
author = {Bonfils, C{\'{e}}line and Anderson, Gemma and Santer, Benjamin D. and Phillips, Thomas J. and Taylor, Karl E. and Cuntz, Matthias and Zelinka, Mark D. and Marvel, Kate and Cook, Benjamin I. and Cvijanovic, Ivana and Durack, Paul J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0005.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-land interaction,Climate models,Climate variability,Drought,ENSO,Teleconnections},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6883--6904},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Competing influences of anthropogenic warming, ENSO, and plant physiology on future terrestrial aridity}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0005.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bonfils2015,
abstract = {El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.},
author = {Bonfils, C{\'{e}}line J. W. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Phillips, Thomas J. and Marvel, Kate and Leung, L. Ruby and Doutriaux, Charles and Capotondi, Antonietta},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0341.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {9997--10013},
title = {{Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0341.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bonfils9999,
abstract = {Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach1,2 to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, FM1(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns3 and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, FM2(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast4,5, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone6–9 and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California10, the Sahel11,12 and India. FM2(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.},
author = {Bonfils, C{\'{e}}line J.W. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Fyfe, John C. and Marvel, Kate and Phillips, Thomas J. and Zimmerman, Susan R.H. H.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0821-1},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {8},
pages = {1--6},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity}},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Bonini2014,
abstract = {Deforestation may have effects on the hydrological cycle, directly reflecting in the rainfall rates. Therefore, studies pointing out evidence of climate changes caused by deforestation are extremely important, because they help understanding the way how these changes are related to forms of using and occupying the territory, as well as to the way how information obtained can to be useful for mitigating their effects. In this context, this paper aimed to analyze rainfall variations occurring in the municipality of Col{\'{i}}der, Mato Grosso, southern Amazon,Brazil, within a temporal scale of 28 years (daily data), correlating them to the regional and local deforestation patterns by determining Spearman's $\rho$ coefficient. Annual rainfall presented a large variation, with a minimum of 1,296 mm in 1987 and a maximum of 2,492.8 mm in 1990. The rainy season was concentrated between October and April, and the driest period was within June and August. Spearman's coefficient pointed out negative correlations between regional and local deforestation and local rainfall, showing that the larger the deforested area, the lower the rainfall rate observed.},
author = {Bonini, Isabelle and Rodrigues, Cleverson and Dallacort, Rivanildo and Hur, B E N and Junior, Marimon and Ant{\^{o}}nio, Marco and Carvalho, Camillo},
doi = {10.1590/0102-778620130665},
isbn = {0102778620},
journal = {Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia},
keywords = {a destrui{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o das florestas,arc of deforestation,ciclo hidrol{\'{o}}gico,col{\'{i}}der,de,gamma probability,no munic{\'{i}}pio de,pode ter efeitos no,precipita{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o pluviom{\'{e}}trica e desmatamento,rainfall variability,refletindo diretamente nas taxas,resumo,sul da amaz{\^{o}}nia,vegetation removal},
pages = {483--493},
title = {{Rainfall and deforestation in the municipality of Col{\'{i}}der, Southern Amazon}},
volume = {29},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Bonnet2017a,
author = {Bonnet, R. and Bo{\'{e}}, J. and Dayon, G. and Martin, E.},
doi = {10.1002/2017WR020596},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {8366--8382},
title = {{Twentieth-Century Hydrometeorological Reconstructions to Study the Multidecadal Variations of the Water Cycle Over France}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017WR020596},
volume = {53},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bony2013NGeo,
abstract = {Predicting the response of tropical rainfall to climate change remains a challenge1. Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide are expected to affect the hydrological cycle through increases in global mean temperature and the water vapour content of the atmosphere2–4. However, regional precipitation changes also closely depend on the atmospheric circulation, which is expected to weaken in a warmer world4–6. Here, we assess the effect of a rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on tropical circulation and precipitation by analysing results from a suite of simulations from multiple state-of-the-art climate models, and an operational numerical weather prediction model. In a scenario in which humans continue to use fossil fuels unabated, about half the tropical circulation change projected by the end of the twenty-first century, and consequently a large fraction of the regional precipitation change, is independent of global surfacewarming. Instead, these robust circulation and precipitation changes are a consequence of the weaker net radiative cooling of the atmosphere associated with higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, which affects the strength of atmospheric vertical motions. This implies that geo-engineering schemes aimed at reducing global warming without removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere would fail to fully mitigate precipitation changes in the tropics. Strategies that may help constrain rainfall projections are suggested},
annote = {Robust circulation responses to CO2 forcing related to fast adjustment and slow thermodynamical response},
author = {Bony, Sandrine and Bellon, Gilles and Klocke, Daniel and Sherwood, Steven and Fermepin, Solange and Denvil, S{\'{e}}bastien},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1799},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {17520894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {apr},
number = {6},
pages = {447--451},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1799},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Boos2016NGeo,
abstract = {Shifts in the latitude of the intertropical convergence zone[mdash]a region of intense tropical rainfall[mdash]have often been explained through changes in the atmospheric energy budget, specifically through theories that tie rainfall to meridional energy fluxes. These quantitative theories can explain shifts in the zonal mean, but often have limited relevance for regional climate shifts, such as a period of enhanced precipitation over Saharan Africa during the mid-Holocene. Here we present a theory for regional tropical rainfall shifts that utilizes both zonal and meridional energy fluxes. We first identify a qualitative link between zonal and meridional energy fluxes and rainfall variations associated with the seasonal cycle and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. We then develop a quantitative theory based on these fluxes that relates atmospheric energy transport to tropical rainfall. When applied to the orbital configuration of the mid-Holocene, our theory predicts continental rainfall shifts over Africa and Southeast Asia that are consistent with complex model simulations. However, the predicted rainfall over the Sahara is not sufficient to sustain vegetation at a level seen in the palaeo-record, which instead requires an additional large energy source such as that due to reductions in Saharan surface albedo. We thus conclude that additional feedbacks, such as those involving changes in vegetation or soil type, are required to explain changes in rainfall over Africa during the mid-Holocene.},
annote = {zonal+meridional energy fluxes determine regional ITCZ shifts; feedbacks also required to explain green Sahara in mid-holocene},
author = {Boos, William R. and Korty, Robert L.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2833},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {nov},
number = {12},
pages = {892--897},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Regional energy budget control of the intertropical convergence zone and application to mid-Holocene rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2833},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Boos2016,
abstract = {Abstract Theoretical models have been used to argue that seasonal mean monsoons will shift abruptly and discontinuously from wet to dry stable states as their radiative forcings pass a critical threshold, sometimes referred to as a “tipping point.” Further support for a ...$\backslash$n},
author = {Boos, William R. and Storelvmo, Trude},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1517143113},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {6},
pages = {1510--1515},
title = {{Near-linear response of mean monsoon strength to a broad range of radiative forcings}},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Booth2018,
abstract = {The representation of extratropical cyclone (ETC) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim (ERAI), GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km-resolution WRF Model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with the GISS model generating the most, followed by ERAI and then the GFDL model. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC's life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed.},
author = {Booth, James F. and Naud, Catherine M. and Willison, Jeff},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0308.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate models,Extratropical cyclones,Precipitation},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2345--2360},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Evaluation of extratropical cyclone precipitation in the North Atlantic basin: An analysis of ERA-Interim, WRF, and two CMIP5 models}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Borodina_2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2017. American Geophysical Union. Model projections of regional changes in heavy rainfall are uncertain. On timescales of few decades, internal variability plays an important role and therefore poses a challenge to detect robust model response in heavy rainfall to rising temperatures. We use spatial aggregation to reduce the major role of internal variability and evaluate the heavy rainfall response to warming temperatures with observations. We show that in the regions with high rainfall intensity and for which gridded observations exist, most of the models underestimate the historical scaling of heavy rainfall and the land fraction with significant positive heavy rainfall scalings during the historical period. The historical behavior is correlated with the projected heavy rainfall intensification across models allowing to apply an observational constraint, i.e., to calibrate multimodel ensembles with observations in order to narrow the range of projections. The constraint suggests a substantially stronger intensification of future heavy rainfall than the multimodel mean.},
annote = {Observations indicate climate projections may underestimate extratropical heavy rainfall response to global warming},
author = {Borodina, Aleksandra and Fischer, Erich M. and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074530},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {GCMs,Heavy rainfall,emerging constraint,hydrological cycle},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {7401--7409},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Models are likely to underestimate increase in heavy rainfall in the extratropical regions with high rainfall intensity}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017gl074530},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bosmans2018,
author = {Bosmans, J.H.C. and Erb, M.P. and Dolan, A.M. and Drijfhout, S.S. and Tuenter, E. and Hilgen, F.J. and Edge, D. and Pope, J.O. and Lourens, L.J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.025},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
month = {may},
pages = {121--135},
title = {{Response of the Asian summer monsoons to idealized precession and obliquity forcing in a set of GCMs}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379117302147},
volume = {188},
year = {2018}
}
@inproceedings{Bouchaou2013,
abstract = {This study aims to determine the surface water and groundwater interconnection in the Souss catchment of western Morocco by applying multiple isotopic tracers such as $\delta$18O, $\delta$2H, 3H, Ra, 14C, 87Sr/86Sr and CFCs Stable water isotope data indicate that the High Atlas Mountains, with their high rainfall and low $\delta$18O and $\delta$2H values, constitute the major source of recharge to the Souss-Massa aquifer Carbon-14 activities (34-94 pMC) and 3H indicate a long residence time of groundwater in some areas The high 14C activities measured in the Ifni spring located at 2158 m asl and the Tiar spring at 711 m asl indicate a modern contribution, which is consistent with recharge from the High Atlas tributaries In the upstream mountainous section, the mass balance mixing model suggest that groundwater contribution to stream flow is about 72{\%} during the wet season and 36{\%} during the dry season In the downstream plain, 80{\%} of surface flow infiltrates to the aquifer 226Ra and 87Sr/86Sr variations were indistinguishable for surface waters and groundwater (author)},
address = {Vienna, Austria},
author = {Bouchaou, L and Tagma, T and Boutaleb, S and Hsissou, Y and Nathaniel, W and Vengosh, A and Michelot, J L and Massault, M and Elfaskaoui, M},
booktitle = {Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change Studies, Vol. 2. Proceedings of the International Symposium},
isbn = {978-92-0-135610-9},
pages = {169--175},
publisher = {International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)},
title = {{Isotopic Composition and Age of Surface Water as Indicators of Groundwater Sustainability in a Semiarid Area: Case of the Souss Basin (Morocco)}},
url = {http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/SupplementaryMaterials/Pub1580{\_}vol2{\_}web.pdf},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Boulton:2017aa,
annote = {doi: 10.1111/gcb.13733},
author = {Boulton, Chris A and Booth, Ben B B and Good, Peter},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13733},
isbn = {1354-1013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Amazon rainforest,HadCM3C,climate uncertainty,committed response,physics-perturbed ensemble},
number = {12},
pages = {5032--5044},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13733},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Boyaj2020,
abstract = {Abstract Through an analysis of land use land cover (LULC) data for the years 2005 and 2017 from the Advanced Wide Field Sensor onboard the Indian Remote Sensing satellite, we find considerable changes in the LULC in three major states of South India, namely, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Kerala. This change is mainly due to increasing urbanization, in addition to the change of prevalent mixed forest into deciduous needle/leaf forest in Kerala. Motivated by this finding, we study the impact of these LULC changes over a decade on the extremity of twelve heavy rainfall events in these states through several sensitivity experiments with a convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model, by changing the LULC boundary conditions. We particularly focus on three representative heavy rainfall events, specifically, over (i) Chennai (December 01, 2015), (ii) Telangana (September 24, 2016), and (iii) Kerala (August 15, 2018). The simulated rainfall patterns of the three heavy rainfall events are found to be relatively better with the use of the 2017 LULC boundary conditions. The improvement is statistically significant in the case of the Chennai and Kerala events. On analysis of these simulations, and outputs from additional simulations we have conducted for nine other heavy rainfall events, we suggest that the recent LULC changes result in higher surface temperatures, sensible heat fluxes, and a deeper and moist boundary layer. This causes a relatively higher convective available potential energy and, consequently, heavier rainfall. We find the LULC changes in the three states, mainly dominated by the increasing urbanization in Telangana and Tamil Nadu, enhance the rainfall during the heavy rainfall events by 20{\%} - 25{\%}. This is the first extensive investigation of multiple and multi-regional cases over the Indian region.},
author = {Boyaj, Alugula and Dasari, Hari Prasad and Hoteit, Ibrahim and Ashok, Karumuri},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3826},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {WRF model,heavy rainfall events and land cover,south urbanization},
month = {oct},
number = {732},
pages = {3064--3085},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Increasing heavy rainfall events in south India due to changing land use and land cover}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3826 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.3826},
volume = {146},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Boysen2020,
abstract = {Abstract. Changes in forest cover have a strong effect on climate through the alteration of surface biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties that affect energy, water and carbon exchange with the atmosphere. To quantify biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of deforestation in a consistent setup, nine Earth system models (ESMs) carried out an idealized experiment in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6). Starting from their pre-industrial state, models linearly replace 20×106 km2 of forest area in densely forested regions with grasslands over a period of 50 years followed by a stabilization period of 30 years. Most of the deforested area is in the tropics, with a secondary peak in the boreal region. The effect on global annual near-surface temperature ranges from no significant change to a cooling by 0.55 ∘C, with a multi-model mean of -0.22±0.21 ∘C. Five models simulate a temperature increase over deforested land in the tropics and a cooling over deforested boreal land. In these models, the latitude at which the temperature response changes sign ranges from 11 to 43∘ N, with a multi-model mean of 23∘ N. A multi-ensemble analysis reveals that the detection of near-surface temperature changes even under such a strong deforestation scenario may take decades and thus longer than current policy horizons. The observed changes emerge first in the centre of deforestation in tropical regions and propagate edges, indicating the influence of non-local effects. The biogeochemical effect of deforestation are land carbon losses of 259±80 PgC that emerge already within the first decade. Based on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) this would yield a warming by 0.46 ± 0.22 ∘C, suggesting a net warming effect of deforestation. Lastly, this study introduces the “forest sensitivity” (as a measure of climate or carbon change per fraction or area of deforestation), which has the potential to provide lookup tables for deforestation–climate emulators in the absence of strong non-local climate feedbacks. While there is general agreement across models in their response to deforestation in terms of change in global temperatures and land carbon pools, the underlying changes in energy and carbon fluxes diverge substantially across models and geographical regions. Future analyses of the global deforestation experiments could further explore the effect on changes in seasonality of the climate response as well as large-scale circulation changes to advance our understanding and quantification of deforestation effects in the ESM frameworks.},
author = {Boysen, Lena R. and Brovkin, Victor and Pongratz, Julia and Lawrence, David M. and Lawrence, Peter and Vuichard, Nicolas and Peylin, Philippe and Liddicoat, Spencer and Hajima, Tomohiro and Zhang, Yanwu and Rocher, Matthias and Delire, Christine and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland and Arora, Vivek K and Nieradzik, Lars and Anthoni, Peter and Thiery, Wim and Lagu{\"{e}}, Marysa M. and Lawrence, Deborah and Lo, Min-Hui},
doi = {10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020},
issn = {1726-4189},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {5615--5638},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{Global climate response to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models}},
url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/5615/2020/},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Bozkurt2019,
abstract = {This study evaluates hindcast simulations performed with a regional climate model (RCM, RegCM4) driven by reanalysis data (ERA-Interim) over the Pacific coast and Andes Cordillera of extratropical South America. A nested domain configuration at 0. 44 ∘ (∼ 50 km) and 0. 09 ∘ (∼ 10 km) spatial resolutions is used for the simulations. RegCM4 is also driven by a global climate model (GCM, MPI-ESM-MR) on the same domain configuration to asses the added values for temperature and precipitation (historical simulations). Overall, both 10 km hindcast and historical simulation results are promising and exhibit a better representation of near-surface air temperature and precipitation variability compared to the 50 km simulations. High-resolution simulations suppress an overestimation of precipitation over the Andes Cordillera of northern Chile found with the 50 km simulations. The simulated daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices from 10 km hindcast simulation show a closer estimation of the observed fields. A persistent warm bias (∼+4∘C) over the Atacama Desert in 10 km hindcast simulation reveals the complexity in representing land surface and radiative processes over the desert. Difficulties in capturing the temperature trend in northern Chile are notable for both hindcast simulations. Both resolutions exhibit added values for temperature and precipitation over large parts of Chile, in particular, the 10 km resolves the coastal-valley Andes transitions over central Chile. Our results highlight that resolutions coarser than 50 km (e.g., GCMs and reanalysis) miss important climate gradients imposed by complex topography. Given that the highest spatial resolution of the current regional simulations over the South America is about 50 km, higher resolutions are important to improve our understanding of the dynamical processes that determine climate over complex terrain and extreme environments.},
author = {Bozkurt, Deniz and Rojas, Maisa and Boisier, Juan Pablo and Rondanelli, Roberto and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} and Gallardo, Laura},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04959-y},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atacama Desert,Chile,Climate variability,Model evaluation,Patagonia,Temporal-spatial scale analysis},
number = {11},
pages = {6745--6767},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Dynamical downscaling over the complex terrain of southwest South America: present climate conditions and added value analysis}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04959-y},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2017JD027796,
abstract = {Abstract A record-setting temperature of 17.5°C occurred on 24 March 2015 at the Esperanza station located near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). We studied the event using surface station data, satellite imagery, reanalysis data, and numerical simulations. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Antarctic Ice Shelf Image Archive provides clear evidence for disintegration and advection of sea ice, as well as the formation of melt ponds on the ice sheet surface at the base of the AP mountain range. A deep low-pressure center over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea and a blocking ridge over the southeast Pacific provided favorable conditions for the development of an atmospheric river with a northwest-southeast orientation, directing warm and moist air toward the AP, and triggering a widespread foehn episode. A control simulation using a regional climate model shows the existence of local topographically induced warming along the northern tip of the AP (∼60{\%} of the full temperature signal) and the central part of the eastern AP ({\textgreater}90{\%} of the full temperature signal) with respect to a simulation without topography. These modeling results suggest that more than half of the warming experienced at Esperanza can be attributed to the foehn effect (a local process), rather than to the large-scale advection of warm air from the midlatitudes. Nevertheless, the local foehn effect also has a large-scale advection component, since the atmospheric river provides water vapor for orographic precipitation enhancement and latent heat release, which makes it difficult to completely disentangle the role of local versus large-scale processes in explaining the extreme event.},
author = {Bozkurt, D and Rondanelli, R and Mar{\'{i}}n, J C and Garreaud, R},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027796},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {atmospheric river,climate variability,extreme high temperature,foehn wind,meteorology,regional climate modeling},
number = {8},
pages = {3871--3892},
title = {{Foehn Event Triggered by an Atmospheric River Underlies Record-Setting Temperature Along Continental Antarctica}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017JD027796},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bronnimann2015,
abstract = {The width of the tropical belt affects the subtropical dry zones and has expanded since 1980. Analyses of observations and climate–chemistry model simulations suggest that the northern tropical edge retracted between 1945 and 1980.},
author = {Br{\"{o}}nnimann, Stefan and Fischer, Andreas M. and Rozanov, Eugene and Poli, Paul and Compo, Gilbert P. and Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2568},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {969--974},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Southward shift of the northern tropical belt from 1945 to 1980}},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{BracegirdleT.J.HolmesC.R.HoskingJ.S.MarshallG.J.OsmanM.PattersonM.andRackow,
abstract = {One of the major globally relevant systematic biases in previous generations of climate models has been an equatorward bias in the latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude tropospheric eddy driven westerly jet. The far-reaching implications of this for Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake and Antarctic land and sea ice are key reasons why addressing this bias is a high priority. It is therefore of primary importance to evaluate the representation of the SH westerly jet in the latest generation of global climate and earth system models that comprise the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In this paper we assess the representation of major indices of SH extratropical atmospheric circulation in CMIP6 by comparison against both observations and the previous generation of CMIP5 models. Indices assessed are the latitude and speed of the westerly jet, variability of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and representation of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL). These are calculated from the historical forcing simulations of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 for time periods matching available observational and reanalysis data sets. From the 39 CMIP6 models available at the time of writing there is an overall reduction in the equatorward bias of the annual mean westerly jet from 1.9° in CMIP5 to 0.4° in CMIP6 and from a seasonal perspective the reduction is clearest in austral spring and summer. This is accompanied by a halving of the bias of SAM decorrelation timescales compared to CMIP5. However, no such overall improvements are evident for the ASL.},
author = {Bracegirdle, T. J. and Holmes, C. R. and Hosking, J. S. and Marshall, G. J. and Osman, M. and Patterson, M. and Rackow, T.},
doi = {10.1029/2019EA001065},
issn = {2333-5084},
journal = {Earth and Space Science},
keywords = {Amundsen Sea Low,Antarctic,CMIP5,CMIP6,Southern Ocean,westerly jet},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {e2019EA001065},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EA001065},
volume = {7},
year = {2020}
}
@article{BracegirdleT.J.KrinnerG.TonelliM.HaumannF.A.NaughtenK.A.RackowT.RoachL.andWainer,
abstract = {Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of how the Antarctic climate system would behave under a range of scenarios of future external climate forcing are thus a high priority. Output from new model simulations coordinated as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides an opportunity for a comprehensive analysis of the latest generation of state-of-the-art climate models following a wider range of experiment types and scenarios than previous CMIP phases. Here the main broad-scale 21st century Antarctic projections provided by the CMIP6 models are shown across four forcing scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. End-of-century Antarctic surface-air temperature change across these scenarios (relative to 1995–2014) is 1.3, 2.5, 3.7 and 4.8°C. The corresponding proportional precipitation rate changes are 8, 16, 24 and 31{\%}. In addition to these end-of-century changes, an assessment of scenario dependence of pathways of absolute and global-relative 21st century projections is conducted. Potential differences in regional response are of particular relevance to coastal Antarctica, where, for example, ecosystems and ice shelves are highly sensitive to the timing of crossing of key thresholds in both atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Overall, it is found that the projected changes over coastal Antarctica do not scale linearly with global forcing. We identify two factors that appear to contribute: (a) a stronger global-relative Southern Ocean warming in stabilisation (SSP2-4.5) and aggressive mitigation (SSP1-2.6) scenarios as the Southern Ocean continues to warm and (b) projected recovery of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric ozone and its effect on the mid-latitude westerlies. The major implication is that over coastal Antarctica, the surface warming by 2100 is stronger relative to the global mean surface warming for the low forcing compared to high forcing future scenarios.},
author = {Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Krinner, Gerhard and Tonelli, Marcos and Haumann, F. Alexander and Naughten, Kaitlin A. and Rackow, Thomas and Roach, Lettie A. and Wainer, Ilana},
doi = {10.1002/asl.984},
issn = {1530-261X},
journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
keywords = {Antarctic,CMIP6,Southern Ocean,climate,projection,westerlies},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {e984},
title = {{Twenty first century changes in Antarctic and Southern Ocean surface climate in CMIP6}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.984},
volume = {21},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Braconnot2008,
author = {Braconnot, P. and Marzin, C. and Gr{\'{e}}goire, L. and Mosquet, E. and Marti, O.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-4-281-2008},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {nov},
number = {4},
pages = {281--294},
title = {{Monsoon response to changes in Earth's orbital parameters: comparisons between simulations of the Eemian and of the Holocene}},
url = {http://www.clim-past.net/4/281/2008/},
volume = {4},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Braconnot2019,
abstract = {Abstract Particularly dry or wet boreal summer monsoon seasons are major hazards affecting societal vulnerability in India and Africa. Several factors affect monsoon rainfall amount and limit the understanding of possible linkages between monsoon variability and mean climate changes. Here we characterize the multiscale variability of Indian and West African monsoon rain from two simulations of the last 6000 years. Changes in Earth's orbit cause long-term monsoon drying trend in India and Africa, but the Indian monsoon is more sensitive to anthropogenic CO2. Variability is characterized by two major ranges of chaotic variability, each related to specific ocean-atmosphere modes present throughout the period. Combination of random 50-500 and 2-20 year variability leads to large events occurring at millennium scale. However, the two regions exhibit opposite trends in rainfall variability due to changes in teleconnection with Pacific SST for India and Atlantic SST for West Africa at interannual to decadal timescales.},
author = {Braconnot, P and Cr{\'{e}}tat, J and Marti, O and Balkanski, Y and Caubel, A and Cozic, A and Foujols, M.-A. and Sanogo, S},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084797},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Earth system modeling,Monsoon,climate change,multiscall },
month = {nov},
number = {23},
pages = {14021--14029},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Impact of multiscale variability on last 6000 years Indian and West African monsoon rain}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084797},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Brando2014,
abstract = {Climate change alone is unlikely to drive severe tropical forest degradation in the next few decades, but an alternative process associated with severe weather and forest fires is already operating in southeastern Amazonia. Recent droughts caused greatly elevated fire-induced tree mortality in a fire experiment and widespread regional forest fires that burned 5{\{}$\backslash$textendash{\}}12{\%} of southeastern Amazon forests. These results suggest that feedbacks between fires and extreme climatic conditions could increase the likelihood of an Amazon forest {\{}$\backslash$textquotedblleft{\}}dieback{\{}$\backslash$textquotedblright{\}} in the near-term. To secure the integrity of seasonally dry Amazon forests, efforts to end deforestation must be accompanied by initiatives that reduce the accidental spread of land management fires into neighboring forest reserves and effectively suppress forest fires when they start.Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462{\%}) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31{\%}) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30{\%}) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63{\%}), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW.m-1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5{\%} of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with {\textless}1{\%} in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of glob{\ldots}},
author = {Brando, Paulo Monteiro and Balch, Jennifer K and Nepstad, Daniel C and Morton, Douglas C and Putz, Francis E and Coe, Michael T and Silv{\'{e}}rio, Divino and Macedo, Marcia N and Davidson, Eric A and N{\'{o}}brega, Caroline C and Alencar, Ane and Soares-Filho, Britaldo S},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1305499111},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions}},
year = {2014}
}
@misc{Braun2019,
abstract = {Excluding the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, glaciers in South America are large contributors to sea-level rise1. Their rates of mass loss, however, are poorly known. Here, using repeat bi-static synthetic aperture radar interferometry over the years 2000 to 2011/2015, we compute continent-wide, glacier-specific elevation and mass changes for 85{\%} of the glacierized area of South America. Mass loss rate is calculated to be 19.43 ± 0.60 Gt a−1 from elevation changes above ground, sea or lake level, with an additional 3.06 ± 1.24 Gt a−1 from subaqueous ice mass loss not contributing to sea-level rise. The largest contributions come from the Patagonian icefields, where 83{\%} mass loss occurs, largely from dynamic adjustments of large glaciers. These changes contribute 0.054 ± 0.002 mm a−1 to sea-level rise. In comparison with previous studies2, tropical and out-tropical glaciers — as well as those in Tierra del Fuego — show considerably less ice loss. These results provide basic information to calibrate and validate glacier-climate models and also for decision-makers in water resource management3.},
author = {Braun, Matthias H. and Malz, Philipp and Sommer, Christian and Far{\'{i}}as-Barahona, David and Sauter, Tobias and Casassa, Gino and Soruco, Alvaro and Skvarca, Pedro and Seehaus, Thorsten C.},
booktitle = {Nature Climate Change},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0375-7},
issn = {17586798},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {130--136},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Constraining glacier elevation and mass changes in South America}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0375-7},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Breshears2013,
author = {Breshears, David D. and Adams, Henry D. and Eamus, Derek and McDowell, Nate G. and Law, Darin J. and Will, Rodney E. and Williams, A. Park and Zou, Chris B.},
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2013.00266},
issn = {1664-462X},
journal = {Frontiers in Plant Science},
title = {{The critical amplifying role of increasing atmospheric moisture demand on tree mortality and associated regional die-off}},
url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpls.2013.00266/abstract},
volume = {4},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Brierley2020,
abstract = {Abstract. The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.},
author = {Brierley, Chris M. and Zhao, Anni and Harrison, Sandy P. and Braconnot, Pascale and Williams, Charles J. R. and Thornalley, David J. R. and Shi, Xiaoxu and Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves and Ohgaito, Rumi and Kaufman, Darrell S. and Kageyama, Masa and Hargreaves, Julia C. and Erb, Michael P. and Emile-Geay, Julien and D'Agostino, Roberta and Chandan, Deepak and Carr{\'{e}}, Matthieu and Bartlein, Partrick J. and Zheng, Weipeng and Zhang, Zhongshi and Zhang, Qiong and Yang, Hu and Volodin, Evgeny M. and Tomas, Robert A. and Routson, Cody and Peltier, W. Richard and Otto-Bliesner, Bette and Morozova, Polina A. and McKay, Nicholas P. and Lohmann, Gerrit and Legrande, Allegra N. and Guo, Chuncheng and Cao, Jian and Brady, Esther and Annan, James D. and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako},
doi = {10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {1847--1872},
title = {{Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/1847/2020/},
volume = {16},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Broccoli2006a,
abstract = {[2] The importance of tropical influences on the climate of the extratropics is well-recognized in the context of interannual variability, and the tropics have been postulated as a driving force behind changes in extratropical climate on longer time scales as well. In contrast, ... $\backslash$n},
author = {Broccoli, Anthony J and Dahl, Kristina A and Stouffer, Ronald J},
doi = {10.1029/2005GL024546},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {L01702},
title = {{Response of the ITCZ to Northern Hemisphere cooling}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2005GL024546},
volume = {33},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Brogli2019a,
abstract = {Future mean precipitation in the Mediterranean is projected to decrease year-round in response to global warming, threatening to aggravate water stress in the region, which can cause social and economic difficulties. We investigate possible causes of the Mediterranean drying in regional climate simulations. To test the influence of multiple large-scale drivers on the drying, we sequentially add them to the simulations. We find that the causes of the Mediterranean drying depend on the season. The summer drying results from the land-ocean warming contrast, and from lapse-rate and other thermodynamic changes, but only weakly depends on circulation changes. In contrast, to reproduce the simulated Mediterranean winter drying, additional changes in the circulation and atmospheric state have to be represented in the simulations. Since land-ocean contrast, thermodynamic and lapse-rate changes are more robust in climate simulations than circulation changes, the uncertainty associated with the projected drying should be considered smaller in summer than in winter.},
author = {Brogli, Roman and S{\o}rland, Silje Lund and Kr{\"{o}}ner, Nico and Sch{\"{a}}r, Christoph},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab4438},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {11},
pages = {114017},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Causes of future Mediterranean precipitation decline depend on the season}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4438},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Brovkin:1998,
author = {Brovkin, Victor and Claussen, Martin and Petoukhov, Vladimir and Ganopolski, Andrey},
doi = {10.1029/1998JD200006},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {D24},
pages = {31613--31624},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{On the stability of the atmosphere-vegetation system in the Sahara/Sahel region}},
volume = {103},
year = {1998}
}
@article{Brown_2017,
abstract = {Changes in tropical rainfall variability in future climate will pose challenges for adaptation. To evaluate changes in Asian-Australian regional monsoon wet season rainfall, daily data from historical and future (RCP8.5 scenario) coupled climate simulations is band-pass-filtered to isolate variability on near-daily, weekly, monthly, intraseasonal, annual, interannual and decadal time scales. This method is used to quantify changes in variability from 35 CMIP5 models for each time scale over the Australian, South Asian and East Asian monsoon domains. The role of increased atmospheric moisture is examined by estimating the change due to an idealized thermodynamic enhancement. This produces larger increases in variability than the projected change for the Australian monsoon on all time scales, while the South Asian and East Asian monsoon response is smaller or larger than projections for different time scales.},
annote = {increased daily to decadal variability in rainfall explained by thermodynamic factors},
author = {Brown, Josephine R. and Moise, Aurel F. and Colman, Robert A.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073217},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,modelss},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5683--5690},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Projected increases in daily to decadal variability of Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017gl073217},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{bmcz16,
author = {Brown, J R and Moise, A F and Colman, R and Zhang, H},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0695.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
pages = {4577--4596},
title = {{Will a warmer world mean a wetter or drier Australian monsoon?}},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Brown2016a,
abstract = {El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation is the major source of interannual rainfall variability in the Australian region, with the strongest influence over eastern Australia. The strength of this regional ENSO–rainfall teleconnection varies in the observational record. Climate model simulations of the “last millennium” (850–1850 C.E.) can be used to quantify the natural variability of the relationship between ENSO and Australian rainfall on decadal and longer time scales, providing a baseline for evaluating future projections. In this study, historical and last millennium (LM) simulations from six models were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. All models reproduce the observed negative correlation between September to February (SONDJF) eastern Australian rainfall and the NINO3.4 index, with varying skill. In the LM simulations, all models produce decadal-scale cooling over eastern Australia in response to volcanic forcing, as well as a long-term cooling trend. Rainfall variability over the same region is not strongly driven by external forcing, with each model simulating rainfall anomalies of different phase and magnitude. SONDJF eastern Australian rainfall is strongly correlated with ENSO in the LM simulations for all models, although some models simulate periods when the teleconnection weakens substantially for several decades. Changes in ENSO variance play a role in modulating the teleconnection strength, but are not the only factor. The long-term average spatial pattern of the ENSO–Australian rainfall teleconnection is similar in the LM and historical simulations, although the spatial pattern varies over time in the LM simulations.},
author = {Brown, Josephine R. and Hope, Pandora and Gergis, Joelle and Henley, Benjamin J.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2824-6},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {79--93},
title = {{ENSO teleconnections with Australian rainfall in coupled model simulations of the last millennium}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2824-6 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2824-6},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{br10,
abstract = {Abstract. An update is provided of Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring (March, April) snow cover extent (SCE) over the 1922–2010 period incorporating the new climate data record (CDR) version of the NOAA weekly SCE dataset, with annual 95{\%} confidence intervals estimated from regression analysis and intercomparison of multiple datasets. The uncertainty analysis indicates a 95{\%} confidence interval in NH spring SCE of ±5–10{\%} over the pre-satellite period and ±3–5{\%} over the satellite era. The multi-dataset analysis shows larger uncertainties monitoring spring SCE over Eurasia (EUR) than North America (NA) due to the more complex regional character of the snow cover variability and larger between-dataset variability over northern Europe and north-central Russia. Trend analysis of the updated SCE series provides evidence that NH spring snow cover extent has undergone significant reductions over the past {\~{}}90 yr and that the rate of decrease has accelerated over the past 40 yr. The rate of decrease in March and April NH SCE over the 1970–2010 period is {\~{}}0.8 million km2 per decade corresponding to a 7{\%} and 11{\%} decrease in NH March and April SCE respectively from pre-1970 values. In March, most of the change is being driven by Eurasia (NA trends are not significant) but both continents exhibit significant SCE reductions in April. The observed trends in SCE are being mainly driven by warmer air temperatures, with NH mid-latitude air temperatures explaining {\~{}}50{\%} of the variance in NH spring snow cover over the 89-yr period analyzed. However, there is also evidence that changes in atmospheric circulation around 1980 involving the North Atlantic Oscillation and Scandinavian pattern have contributed to reductions in March SCE over Eurasia.},
author = {Brown, R. D. and Robinson, D. A.},
doi = {10.5194/tc-5-219-2011},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {219--229},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922–2010 including an assessment of uncertainty}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/5/219/2011/},
volume = {5},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Brun2017a,
author = {Brun, Fanny and Berthier, Etienne and Wagnon, Patrick and K{\"{a}}{\"{a}}b, Andreas and Treichler, D{\'{e}}sir{\'{e}}e},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2999},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {668--673},
title = {{A spatially resolved estimate of High Mountain Asia glacier mass balances from 2000 to 2016}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2999},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Brunke2016,
abstract = {AbstractOne of the recognized weaknesses of land surface models as used in weather and climate models is the assumption of constant soil thickness due to the lack of global estimates of bedrock depth. Using a 30 arcsecond global dataset for the thickness of relatively porous, unconsolidated sediments over bedrock, spatial variation in soil thickness is included here in version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). The number of soil layers for each grid cell is determined from the average soil depth for each 0.9° latitude × 1.25° longitude grid cell. The greatest changes in the simulation with variable soil thickness are to baseflow, with the annual minimum generally occurring earlier. Smaller changes are seen in latent heat flux and surface runoff primarily due to an increase in the annual cycle amplitude. These changes are related to soil moisture changes which are most substantial in locations with shallow bedrock. Total water storage (TWS) anomalies are not strongly affected over most river basins...},
author = {Brunke, Michael A. and Broxton, Patrick and Pelletier, Jon and Gochis, David and Hazenberg, Pieter and Lawrence, David M. and Leung, L. Ruby and Niu, Guo Yue and Troch, Peter A. and Zeng, Xubin},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0307.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Land surface model,Models and modeling},
number = {9},
pages = {3441--3461},
title = {{Implementing and evaluating variable soil thickness in the Community Land Model, version 4.5 (CLM4.5)}},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bucak2017,
abstract = {Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and changes in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. Additionally, considering climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region, increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation are anticipated, leading to dramatic declines in lake water levels as well as severe water scarcity problems. The study site, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is – like other Mediterranean lakes – threatened by climatic changes and over-abstraction of water for irrigated crop farming. Therefore, implementation of strict water level management policies is required. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to predict the future water levels of Lake Beyşehir in response to potential future changes in climate and land use. Water level estimation was performed by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Regression model ($\epsilon$-SVR). The projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation based on the climate change models led to an enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff. On the other hand, the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment appeared to be comparatively insignificant. According to the $\epsilon$-SVR model results, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction for all scenarios. Moreover, the MPI-ESM-MR General Circulation Model outputs produced the most dramatic results by predicting that Lake Beyşehir may dry out by the 2040s with the current outflow regime. The results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and losing their ecosystem values in the near future if the current intensity of water abstraction is not reduced. In addition, the results also demonstrate that outflow management and sustainable use of water sources are vital to sustain lake ecosystems in water-limited regions.},
author = {Bucak, Tuba and Trolle, Dennis and Andersen, Hans Estrup and Thodsen, Hans and Erdoğan, Şeyda and Levi, Eti E. and Filiz, Nur and Jeppesen, Erik and Beklioğlu, Meryem and Bucak, Tuba},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.149},
issn = {18791026},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
keywords = {Climate change,Drying out,Land use,Outflow,Water level,$\epsilon$-SVR},
month = {mar},
pages = {413--425},
pmid = {28069301},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Future water availability in the largest freshwater Mediterranean lake is at great risk as evidenced from simulations with the SWAT model}},
volume = {581-582},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Buckley2010,
abstract = {The "hydraulic city" of Angkor, the capitol of the Khmer Empire in Cambodia, experienced decades-long drought interspersed with intense monsoons in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries that, in combination with other factors, contributed to its eventual demise. The climatic evidence comes from a seven-and-a-half century robust hydroclimate reconstruction from tropical southern Vietnamese tree rings. The Angkor droughts were of a duration and severity that would have impacted the sprawling city's water supply and agricultural productivity, while high-magnitude monsoon years damaged its water control infrastructure. Hydroclimate variability for this region is strongly and inversely correlated with tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, indicating that a warm Pacific and El Ni{\~{n}}o events induce drought at interannual and interdecadal time scales, and that low-frequency variations of tropical Pacific climate can exert significant influence over Southeast Asian climate and society.},
author = {Buckley, B. M. and Anchukaitis, K. J. and Penny, D. and Fletcher, R. and Cook, E. R. and Sano, M. and Nam, L. C. and Wichienkeeo, A. and Minh, T. T. and Hong, T. M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0910827107},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {15},
pages = {6748--6752},
title = {{Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor, Cambodia}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0910827107},
volume = {107},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Buckley2016a,
abstract = {This is a review about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), its mean structure, temporal variability, controlling mechanisms, and role in the coupled climate system. The AMOC plays a central role in climate through its heat and freshwater transports. Northward ocean heat transport achieved by the AMOC is responsible for the relative warmth of the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere and is thought to play a role in setting the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone north of the equator. The AMOC is a key means by which heat anomalies are sequestered into the ocean's interior and thus modulates the trajectory of climate change. Fluctuations in the AMOC have been linked to low-frequency variability of Atlantic sea surface temperatures with a host of implications for climate variability over surrounding landmasses. On intra-annual timescales, variability in AMOC is large and primarily reflects the response to local wind forcing; meridional coherence of anomalies is limited to that of the wind field. On interannual to decadal timescales, AMOC changes are primarily geostrophic and related to buoyancy anomalies on the western boundary. A pacemaker region for decadal AMOC changes is located in a western "transition zone" along the boundary between the subtropical and subpolar gyres. Decadal AMOC anomalies are communicated meridionally from this region. AMOC observations, as well as the expanded ocean observational network provided by the Argo array and satellite altimetry, are inspiring efforts to develop decadal predictability systems using coupled atmosphere-ocean models initialized by ocean data.},
author = {Buckley, Martha W. and Marshall, John},
doi = {10.1002/2015RG000493},
issn = {8755-1209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,climate variability},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {5--63},
title = {{Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015RG000493},
volume = {54},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bui2019,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2018 The Author(s) This study examined the impacts of model horizontal resolution on vertical structures of convection in the tropics by performing sensitivity experiments with the NCAR CESM1. It was found that contributions to the total precipitation between top-heavy and bottom-heavy convection are different among various resolutions. A coarser resolution tends to produce a greater contribution from top-heavy convection and, as a result, stronger precipitation in the western Pacific ITCZ; while there is less contribution from bottom-heavy convection and weaker precipitation in the eastern Pacific ITCZ. In the western Pacific ITCZ, where the convection is dominated by a top-heavy structure, the stronger precipitation in coarser resolution experiments is due to changes in temperature and moisture profiles associated with a warmer environment (i.e., thermodynamical effect). In the eastern Pacific ITCZ, where the convection is dictated by a bottom-heavy structure, the stronger precipitation in finer resolution experiments comes from changes in convection structure (i.e., dynamic effect) which favors a greater contribution of bottom-heavy convection as the model resolution goes higher. The moisture budget analysis further suggested that the very different behavior in precipitation tendencies in response to model resolution changes between the western and eastern Pacific ITCZs are determined mainly by changes in convective structure rather than changes in convective strength. This study pointed out the importance of model spatial resolution in reproducing a reasonable contribution to the total precipitation between top-heavy and bottom-heavy structure of convection in the tropical Pacific ITCZs.},
author = {Bui, Hien Xuan and Yu, Jia Yuh and Chou, Chia},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4125-3},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1-2},
pages = {15--27},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Impacts of model spatial resolution on the vertical structure of convection in the tropics}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4125-3},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bui2018,
author = {Bui, Hien X. and Maloney, Eric D.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078504},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {7148--7155},
title = {{Changes in Madden–Julian Oscillation Precipitation and Wind Variance Under Global Warming}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL078504},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bukovsky2015a,
abstract = {This study presents climate change results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite of dynamically downscaled simulations for the North American monsoon system in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The focus is on changes in precipitation and the processes driving the projected changes from the regional climate simulations and their driving coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models. The effect of known biases on the projections is also examined. Overall, there is strong ensemble agreement for a large decrease in precipitation during the monsoon season; however, this agreement and the magnitude of the ensemble-mean change is likely deceiving, as the greatest decreases are produced by the simulations that are the most biased in the baseline/current climate. Furthermore, some of the greatest decreases in precipitation are being driven by changes in processes/phenomena that are less credible (e.g., changes in El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation, when it is initially not simulated well). In other simulations, the processes driving the precipitation change may be plausible, but other biases (e.g., biases in low-level moisture or precipitation intensity) appear to be affecting the magnitude of the projected changes. The most and least credible simulations are clearly identified, while the other simulations are mixed in their abilities to produce projections of value.},
author = {Bukovsky, Melissa S. and Carrillo, Carlos M. and Gochis, David J. and Hammerling, Dorit M. and McCrary, Rachel R. and Mearns, Linda O.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00695.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Monsoons,North America,Precipitation,Regional models},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6707--6728},
title = {{Toward Assessing NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Credibility for the North American Monsoon: Future Climate Simulations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00695.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bunde2013,
abstract = {Nature Climate Change | Correspondence Print Email Share/bookmark Is there memory in precipitation? Armin Bunde, Ulf B{\"{u}}ntgen, Josef Ludescher, J{\"{u}}rg Luterbacher {\&} Hans von Storch Affiliations Corresponding author Nature Climate Change 3, 174–175 (2013) doi:10.1038/nclimate1830 Published online 26 February 2013 Article tools PDF Citation Reprints Rights {\&} permissions Metrics Subject terms: Databases Detection and Attribution Earth sciences Meteorology Modelling and statistics Projection and prediction To the Editor Variability in the total amounts of precipitation is known to affect ecological systems, agricultural yields and human societies among various spatial and temporal scales1. Characterizing and understanding the persistence of wet and dry conditions in the distant past gives new perspectives on contemporary climate change and its causes. Such insights should also help in devising hydro-climatological adaptation and mitigation strategies for the future. The time span of systematic meteorological measurements at the global scale is, however, mainly restricted to the 20th century2, and only a few stations have continuous records dating further back in time. Pre-instrumental information on precipitation variability therefore mainly derives from proxy-based reconstructions and output from climate model simulations, with both lines of independent evidence ideally covering the past millennium. Here we address whether these sources reflect a consistent picture of historical variability in precipitation — in fact, they do not.},
author = {Bunde, Armin and B{\"{u}}ntgen, Ulf and Ludescher, Josef and Luterbacher, J{\"{u}}rg and von Storch, Hans},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1830},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {174--175},
title = {{Is there memory in precipitation?}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1830},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Burdanowitz2019ACP,
annote = {Hourly ship-based rainfall shows super-Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 99th percentile hourly extremes (above 8.5{\%}/K) over the ocean are found using ship-based observations with no reduction in duration at higher temperatures. Scaling is weaker in the ERA5 reanalysis (4.5{\%}/K) with a local minimum at 26oC explained by local subsidence.},
author = {Burdanowitz, J{\"{o}}rg and Buehler, Stefan A. and Bakan, Stephan and Klepp, Christian},
doi = {10.5194/acp-19-9241-2019},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {9241--9252},
publisher = {Copernicus {\{}GmbH{\}}},
title = {{The sensitivity of oceanic precipitation to sea surface temperature}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/9241/2019/},
volume = {19},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Burls2017,
abstract = {During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO 2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO 2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO 2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).},
author = {Burls, Natalie J. and Fedorov, Alexey V.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1703421114},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Climate change,Hydrological cycle,Pliocene,Subtropical aridity},
month = {dec},
number = {49},
pages = {12888--12893},
title = {{Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/114/49/12888.abstract},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Byrne2016,
abstract = {AbstractClimate models simulate a strong land-ocean contrast in the response of near-surface relative humidity to global warming: relative humidity tends to increase slightly over oceans but decrease substantially over land. Surface energy balance arguments have been used to understand the response over ocean but are difficult to apply over more complex land surfaces. Here, a conceptual box model is introduced, involving atmospheric moisture transport between the land and ocean and surface evapotranspiration, to investigate the decreases in land relative humidity as the climate warms. The box model is applied to simulations with idealized and full-complexity (CMIP5) general circulation models, and it is found to capture many of the features of the simulated changes in land humidity. The simplest version of the box model gives equal fractional increases in specific humidity over land and ocean. This relationship implies a decrease in land relative humidity given the greater warming over land than ocean and...},
annote = {greater warming over land combined with enhanced evapotranspiration explains reductions in relative humidity, further amplified by vegetation responses},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {1605.00380},
author = {Byrne, Michael P. and O'Gorman, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0351.1},
eprint = {1605.00380},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere- interaction,Climate change,Evapotranspiration,Humidity,Land surface,Water budget},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {9045--9061},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Understanding decreases in land relative humidity with global warming: Conceptual model and GCM simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0351.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Byrne2015,
abstract = {Simulations with climate models show a land-ocean contrast in the response of P - E (precipitation minus evaporation or evapotranspiration) to global warming, with larger changes over ocean than over land. The changes over ocean broadly follow a simple thermodynamic scaling of the atmospheric moisture convergence: the so-called wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier mechanism. Over land, however, the simple scaling fails to give any regions with decreases in P - E, and it overestimates increases in P - E compared to the simulations. Changes in circulation cause deviations from the simple scaling, but they are not sufficient to explain this systematic moist bias. It is shown here that horizontal gradients of changes in temperature and fractional changes in relative humidity, not accounted for in the simple scaling, are important over land and high-latitude oceans. An extended scaling that incorporates these gradients is shown to better capture the response of P - E over land, including a smaller increase in global-mean runoff and several regions with decreases in P - E. In the zonal mean over land, the gradient terms lead to a robust drying tendency at almost all latitudes. This drying tendency is shown to relate, in part, to the polar amplification of warming in the Northern Hemisphere, and to the amplified warming over continental interiors and on the eastern side of midlatitude continents.},
annote = {dry get drier does not apply over land, drying responses can relate to temperature and moisture gradients},
author = {Byrne, Michael P. and O'Gorman, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0369.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atm/Ocean Structure/Phenomena,Atmospheric circulation,Circulation/Dynamics,Climate change,General circulation models,Hydrologic cycle,Models and modeling,Moisture/moisture budget,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Precipitation},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {8078--8092},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The response of precipitation minus evapotranspiration to climate warming: Why the “Wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier” scaling does not hold over land}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0369.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Byrne2018CCCR,
abstract = {Purpose of Review The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is a planetary-scale band of heavy precipitation close to the equator. Here, we consider the response of the ITCZ structure to climate change using observations, simulations, and theory. We focus on the substantial yet underappreciated projected changes in ITCZ width and strength, and highlight an emerging conceptual framework for understanding these changes. Recent Findings Satellite observations and reanalysis data show a narrowing and strengthening of precipitation in the ITCZ over recent decades in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, but little change in ITCZ location. Consistent with observations, coupled climate models predict no robust change in the zonal-mean ITCZ location over the twenty-first century. However, the majority of models project a narrowing of the ITCZ and weakening mean ascent. Interestingly, changes in ITCZ width and strength are strongly anti-correlated across models. Summary The ITCZ has narrowed over recent decades yet its location has remained approximately constant. Climate models project further narrowing and a weakening of the average ascent within the ITCZ as the climate continues to warm. Following intense work over the last ten years, the physical mechanisms controlling the ITCZ location are now well understood. The development of complementary theories for ITCZ width and strength is a current research priority. Outstanding challenges include understanding the ITCZ response to past climate changes and over land versus ocean regions, and better constraining all aspects of the ITCZ structure in model projections.},
author = {Byrne, Michael P. and Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Rapp, Anita D. and Wodzicki, Kyle R.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0110-5},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Climate change,Intertropical convergence zone,Models,Observations,Theory,Tropical precipitation,climate change,intertropical convergence zone,observations,spheric dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {355--370},
publisher = {Springer Nature America, Inc},
title = {{Response of the Intertropical Convergence Zone to Climate Change: Location, Width, and Strength}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007{\%}2Fs40641-018-0110-5 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-018-0110-5},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Byrne2018PNAS,
abstract = {In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.},
author = {Byrne, Michael P. and O'Gorman, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1722312115},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {19},
pages = {4863--4868},
pmid = {29686095},
publisher = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1722312115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Byrne2016GRL,
abstract = {The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) narrows in response to global warming in both observations and climate models. However, a physical understanding of this narrowing is lacking. Here we show that the narrowing of the ITCZ in simulations of future climate is related to changes in the moist static energy (MSE) budget. MSE advection by the mean circulation and MSE divergence by transient eddies tend to narrow the ITCZ, while changes in net energy input to the atmosphere and the gross moist stability tend to widen the ITCZ. The narrowing tendency arises because the meridional MSE gradient strengthens with warming, whereas the largest widening tendency is due to increasing shortwave heating of the atmosphere. The magnitude of the ITCZ narrowing depends strongly on the gross moist stability and clouds, emphasizing the need to better understand these fundamental processes in the tropical atmosphere.},
author = {Byrne, Michael P. and Schneider, Tapio},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL070396},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = { narrowing,atmospheric energy budget,climate change,physical mechanisms},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11350--11357},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Narrowing of the ITCZ in a warming climate: Physical mechanisms}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2016gl070396 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL070396},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Caballero2013,
abstract = {Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow "Earth system" feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or "Charney" climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature.},
author = {Caballero, R. and Huber, M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1303365110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {aug},
number = {35},
pages = {14162--14167},
title = {{State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1303365110},
volume = {110},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Cai2012,
abstract = {Since the late 1970s, Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions such as southern-coastal Chile, southern Africa, and southeastern Australia have experienced a drying trend in austral autumn, predominantly during April and May. The rainfall reduction coincides with a poleward expansion of the tropical belt and subtropical dry zone by around 2°-3° in the same season. This has raised questions as to whether the regional rainfall reductions are attributable to this poleward expansion. Here we show that the impact of the poleward subtropical dry-zone shift is not longitudinally uniform: A clear shift occurs south of Africa and across southern Australia, but there is no evidence of a poleward shift in the southern Chilean sector. As such, a poleward shift of climatological April-May rainfall can explain most of the southeastern Australia rainfall decline, a small portion of the southern Africa rainfall trend, but not the autumn drying over southern Chile.},
author = {Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim and Thatcher, Marcus},
doi = {10.1038/srep00702},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {702},
title = {{Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: The role of subtropical dry zone expansion}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep00702},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Cai2014f,
abstract = { AbstractThe Australian decade-long “Millennium Drought” broke in the summer of 2010/11 and was considered the most severe drought since instrumental records began in the 1900s. A crucial question is whether climate change played a role in inducing the rainfall deficit. The climate modes in question include the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), affecting southern Australia in winter and spring; the southern annular mode (SAM) with an opposing influence on southern Australia in winter to that in spring; and El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation, affecting northern and eastern Australia in most seasons and southeastern Australia in spring through its coherence with the IOD. Furthermore, the poleward edge of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell, which indicates the position of the subtropical dry zone, has possible implications for recent rainfall declines in autumn. Using observations and simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), it is shown that the drought over southwest Western Australia is partly attributable to a long-term upward SAM trend, which contributed to half of the winter rainfall reduction in this region. For southeast Australia, models simulate weak trends in the pertinent climate modes. In particular, they severely underestimate the observed poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zone and associated impacts. Thus, although climate models generally suggest that Australia's Millennium Drought was mostly due to multidecadal variability, some late-twentieth-century changes in climate modes that influence regional rainfall are partially attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse warming. },
author = {Cai, Wenju and Purich, Ariaan and Cowan, Tim and van Rensch, Peter and Weller, Evan},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00322.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {9},
pages = {3145--3168},
title = {{Did Climate Change–Induced Rainfall Trends Contribute to the Australian Millennium Drought?}},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Cai2021,
abstract = {A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) induces weather extremes such as the 2019 Australian bushfires and African floods. The impact is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST), yet models disagree on how pIOD SST may respond to greenhouse warming. Here we find increased SST variability of strong pIOD events, with strong equatorial eastern Indian Ocean cool anomalies, but decreased variability of moderate pIOD events, dominated by western warm anomalies. This opposite response is detected in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) climate models that simulate the two pIOD regimes. Under greenhouse warming, the lower troposphere warms faster than the surface, limiting Ekman pumping that drives the moderate pIOD warm anomalies; however, faster surface warming in the equatorial western region favours atmospheric convection in the west, strengthening equatorial nonlinear advection that forces the strong pIOD cool anomalies. Climate extremes seen in 2019 are therefore likely to occur more frequently under greenhouse warming.},
author = {Cai, Wenju and Yang, Kai and Wu, Lixin and Huang, Gang and Santoso, Agus and Ng, Benjamin and Wang, Guojian and Yamagata, Toshio},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-00943-1},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {27--32},
title = {{Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00943-1},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Cai2020,
abstract = {The climate of South America (SA) has long held an intimate connection with El Ni{\~{n}}o, historically describing anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures off the coastline of Peru. Indeed, throughout SA, precipitation and temperature exhibit a substantial, yet regionally diverse, relationship with the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example, El Ni{\~{n}}o is typically accompanied by drought in the Amazon and north-eastern SA, but flooding in the tropical west coast and south-eastern SA, with marked socio-economic effects. In this Review, we synthesize the understanding of ENSO teleconnections to SA. Recent efforts have sought improved understanding of ocean–atmosphere processes that govern the impact, inter-event and decadal variability, and responses to anthropogenic warming. ENSO's impacts have been found to vary markedly, affected not only by ENSO diversity, but also by modes of variability within and outside of the Pacific. However, while the understanding of ENSO–SA relationships has improved, with implications for prediction and projection, uncertainty remains in regards to the robustness of the impacts, inter-basin climate interactions and interplay with greenhouse warming. A coordinated international effort is, therefore, needed to close the observational, theoretical and modelling gaps currently limiting progress, with specific efforts in extending palaeoclimate proxies further back in time, reducing systematic model errors and improving simulations of ENSO diversity and teleconnections. The El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation exerts a strong influence on the global climate, including South America, where understanding of the phenomenon first emerged. This Review outlines the impacts of the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation on South America, focusing on the mechanisms and diversity of resulting teleconnections.},
author = {Cai, Wenju and McPhaden, Michael J. and Grimm, Alice M. and Rodrigues, Regina R. and Taschetto, Andr{\'{e}}a S. and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} D. and Dewitte, Boris and Poveda, Germ{\'{a}}n and Ham, Yoo-Geun and Santoso, Agus and Ng, Benjamin and Anderson, Weston and Wang, Guojian and Geng, Tao and Jo, Hyun-Su and Marengo, Jos{\'{e}} A. and Alves, Lincoln M. and Osman, Marisol and Li, Shujun and Wu, Lixin and Karamperidou, Christina and Takahashi, Ken and Vera, Carolina},
doi = {10.1038/s43017-020-0040-3},
issn = {2662-138X},
journal = {Nature Reviews Earth {\&} Environment},
number = {4},
pages = {215--231},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Climate impacts of the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation on South America}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0040-3},
volume = {1},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Caillaud2021,
abstract = {Modelling the rare but high-impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) at climate scale remains a largely open scientific challenge. The issue is adressed here by running a 38-year-long continuous simulation of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model (CP-RCM) at a 2.5 km horizontal resolution and over a large pan-Alpine domain. First, the simulation is evaluated through a basic Eulerian statistical approach via a comparison with selected high spatial and temporal resolution observational datasets. Northwestern Mediterranean fall extreme precipitation is correctly represented by CNRM-AROME at a daily scale and even better at an hourly scale, in terms of location, intensity, frequency and interannual variability, despite an underestimation of daily and hourly highest intensities above 200 mm/day and 40 mm/h, respectively. A comparison of the CP-RCM with its forcing convection-parameterised 12.5 km Regional Climate Model (RCM) demonstrates a clear added value for the CP-RCM, confirming previous studies. Secondly, an object-oriented Lagrangian approach is proposed with the implementation of a precipitating system detection and tracking algorithm, applied to the model and the reference COMEPHORE precipitation dataset for twenty fall seasons. Using French Mediterranean HPEs as objects, CNRM-AROME's ability to represent the main characteristics of fall convective systems and tracks is highlighted in terms of number, intensity, area, duration, velocity and severity. Further, the model is able to simulate long-lasting and severe extreme fall events similar to observations. However, it fails to reproduce the precipitating systems and tracks with the highest intensities (maximum intensities above 40 mm/h) well, and the model's tendency to overestimate the cell size increases with intensity.},
author = {Caillaud, C{\'{e}}cile and Somot, Samuel and Alias, Antoinette and Bernard-Bouissi{\`{e}}res, Isabelle and Fumi{\`{e}}re, Quentin and Laurantin, Olivier and Seity, Yann and Ducrocq, V{\'{e}}ronique},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CNRM-AROME,COMEPHORE,Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model,Heavy Precipitation Events,Mediterranean,Object-oriented,Tracking,cnrm-arome,comephore,convection-permitting regional climate model,heavy precipitation events,mediterranean,object-,oriented,tracking},
month = {mar},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1717--1752},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y},
volume = {56},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Caillouet2017,
abstract = {Abstract. The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989–1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.},
author = {Caillouet, Laurie and Vidal, Jean-Philippe and Sauquet, Eric and Devers, Alexandre and Graff, Benjamin},
doi = {10.5194/hess-21-2923-2017},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {2923--2951},
title = {{Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2923/2017/},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Caldwell2019a,
abstract = {This study provides an overview of the coupled high-resolution Version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and documents the characteristics of a 50-year-long high-resolution control simulation with time-invariant 1950 forcings following the HighResMIP protocol. In terms of global root-mean-squared error metrics, this high-resolution simulation is generally superior to results from the low-resolution configuration of E3SMv1 (due to resolution, tuning changes, and possibly initialization procedure) and compares favorably to models in the CMIP5 ensemble. Ocean and sea ice simulation is particularly improved, due to better resolution of bathymetry, the ability to capture more variability and extremes in winds and currents, and the ability to resolve mesoscale ocean eddies. The largest improvement in this regard is an ice-free Labrador Sea, which is a major problem at low resolution. Interestingly, several features found to improve with resolution in previous studies are insensitive to resolution or even degrade in E3SMv1. Most notable in this regard are warm bias and associated stratocumulus deficiency in eastern subtropical oceans and lack of improvement in El Ni{\~{n}}o. Another major finding of this study is that resolution increase had negligible impact on climate sensitivity (measured by net feedback determined through uniform +4K prescribed sea surface temperature increase) and aerosol sensitivity. Cloud response to resolution increase consisted of very minor decrease at all levels. Large-scale patterns of precipitation bias were also relatively unaffected by grid spacing.},
author = {Caldwell, Peter M. and Mametjanov, Azamat and Tang, Qi and {Van Roekel}, Luke P. and Golaz, Jean Christophe and Lin, Wuyin and Bader, David C. and Keen, Noel D. and Feng, Yan and Jacob, Robert and Maltrud, Mathew E. and Roberts, Andrew F. and Taylor, Mark A. and Veneziani, Milena and Wang, Hailong and Wolfe, Jonathan D. and Balaguru, Karthik and Cameron-Smith, Philip and Dong, Lu and Klein, Stephen A. and Leung, L. Ruby and Li, Hong Yi and Li, Qing and Liu, Xiaohong and Neale, Richard B. and Pinheiro, Marielle and Qian, Yun and Ullrich, Paul A. and Xie, Shaocheng and Yang, Yang and Zhang, Yuying and Zhang, Kai and Zhou, Tian},
doi = {10.1029/2019MS001870},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
number = {12},
pages = {4095--4146},
title = {{The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Description and Results at High Resolution}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001870},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Camponogara2018,
abstract = {Abstract. High aerosol loadings are discharged into the atmosphere every year by biomass burning in the Amazon and central Brazil during the dry season (July–December). These particles, suspended in the atmosphere, can be carried via a low-level jet toward the La Plata Basin, one of the largest hydrographic basins in the world. Once they reach this region, the aerosols can affect mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), whose frequency is higher during the spring and summer over the basin. The present study is one of the first that seeks to understand the microphysical effects of biomass burning aerosols from the Amazon Basin on mesoscale convective systems over the La Plata Basin. We performed numerical simulations initialized with idealized cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) profiles for an MCS case observed over the La Plata Basin on 21 September 2010. The experiments reveal an important link between CCN number concentration and MCS dynamics, where stronger downdrafts were observed under higher amounts of aerosols, generating more updraft cells in response. Moreover, the simulations show higher amounts of precipitation as the CCN concentration increases. Despite the model's uncertainties and limitations, these results represent an important step toward the understanding of possible impacts on the Amazon biomass burning aerosols over neighboring regions such as the La Plata Basin.},
author = {Camponogara, Gl{\'{a}}uber and {da Silva Dias}, Maria Assun{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o Faus and Carri{\'{o}}, Gustavo G.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-2081-2018},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {2081--2096},
title = {{Biomass burning CCN enhance the dynamics of a mesoscale convective system over the La Plata Basin: a numerical approach}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/2081/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Campos2019,
abstract = {Continental and marine paleoclimate archives from northwestern and northeastern South America recorded positive precipitation anomalies during Heinrich Stadials (HS). These anomalies have been classically attributed to enhanced austral summer (monsoon) precipitation. However, the lack of marine paleoclimate records off eastern South America as well as inconsistencies between southeastern South American continental and marine records hamper a comprehensive understanding of the mechanism responsible for (sub-) tropical South American hydroclimate response to HS. Here we investigate piston core M125-95-3 collected off eastern South America (10.94°S) and simulate South American HS conditions with a high-resolution version of an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Further, meridional changes in precipitation over (sub-) tropical South America were assessed with a thorough compilation of previously available marine paleorecords. Our ln(Ti/Ca) and ln(Fe/K) data show increases during HS6-Younger Dryas. It is the first core off eastern South America and the southernmost from the Atlantic continental margin of South America that unequivocally records HS-related positive precipitation anomalies. Based on our new data, model results and the compilation of available marine records, we propose a new mechanism for the positive precipitation anomalies over tropical South America during HS. The new mechanism involves austral summer precipitation increases only over eastern South America while the rest of tropical South America experienced precipitation increases during the winter, challenging the widely held assumption of a strengthened monsoon. South American precipitation changes were triggered by dynamic and thermodynamic processes including a stronger moisture supply from the equatorial North Atlantic (tropical South Atlantic) in austral winter (summer).},
author = {Campos, Mar{\'{i}}lia C. and Chiessi, Cristiano M. and Prange, Matthias and Mulitza, Stefan and Kuhnert, Henning and Paul, Andr{\'{e}} and Venancio, Igor M. and Albuquerque, Ana Luiza S. and Cruz, Francisco W. and Bahr, Andr{\'{e}}},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105990},
issn = {0277-3791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
keywords = {Heinrich Stadials,Inorganic geochemistry,Paleoclimatology,Precipitation,Quaternary,South America,X-ray fluorescence},
pages = {105990},
title = {{A new mechanism for millennial scale positive precipitation anomalies over tropical South America}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379119307589},
volume = {225},
year = {2019}
}
@article{CamposBraga2017,
abstract = {We have investigated how aerosols affect the height above cloud base of rain and ice hydrometeor initiation and the subsequent vertical evolution of cloud droplet size and number concentrations in growing convective cumulus. For this purpose we used in situ data of hydrometeor size distributions measured with instruments mounted on HALO aircraft during the ACRIDICON–CHUVA campaign over the Amazon during September 2014. The results show that the height of rain initiation by collision and coalescence processes (Dr, in units of meters above cloud base) is linearly correlated with the number concentration of droplets (Nd in cm−3) nucleated at cloud base (Dr ≈ 5 ⋅ Nd). Additional cloud processes associated with Dr, such as GCCN, cloud, and mixing with ambient air and other processes, produce deviations of  ∼ 21{\%} in the linear relationship, but it does not mask the clear relationship between Dr and Nd, which was also found at different regions around the globe (e.g., Israel and India). When Nd exceeded values of about 1000cm−3, Dr became greater than 5000m, and the first observed precipitation particles were ice hydrometeors. Therefore, no liquid water raindrops were observed within growing convective cumulus during polluted conditions. Furthermore, the formation of ice particles also took place at higher altitudes in the clouds in polluted conditions because the resulting smaller cloud droplets froze at colder temperatures compared to the larger drops in the unpolluted cases. The measured vertical profiles of droplet effective radius (re) were close to those estimated by assuming adiabatic conditions (rea), supporting the hypothesis that the entrainment and mixing of air into convective clouds is nearly inhomogeneous. Additional CCN activation on aerosol particles from biomass burning and air pollution reduced re below rea, which further inhibited the formation of raindrops and ice particles and resulted in even higher altitudes for rain and ice initiation.},
author = {{Campos Braga}, Ramon and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Weigel, Ralf and Jurkat, Tina and Andreae, Meinrat O. and Wendisch, Manfred and P{\"{o}}schl, Ulrich and Voigt, Christiane and Mahnke, Christoph and Borrmann, Stephan and Albrecht, Rachel I. and Molleker, Sergej and Vila, Daniel A. and Machado, Luiz A.T. and Grulich, Lucas and Braga, R. C. and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Weigel, Ralf and Jurkat, Tina and Andreae, Meinrat O. and Wendisch, Manfred and P{\"{o}}schl, Ulrich and Voigt, Christiane and Mahnke, Christoph and Borrmann, Stephan and {Campos Braga}, Ramon and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Weigel, Ralf and Jurkat, Tina and Andreae, Meinrat O. and Wendisch, Manfred and P{\"{o}}schl, Ulrich and Voigt, Christiane and Mahnke, Christoph and Borrmann, Stephan and Albrecht, Rachel I. and Molleker, Sergej and Vila, Daniel A. and Machado, Luiz A.T. and Grulich, Lucas and Braga, R. C. and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Weigel, Ralf and Jurkat, Tina and Andreae, Meinrat O. and Wendisch, Manfred and P{\"{o}}schl, Ulrich and Voigt, Christiane and Mahnke, Christoph and Borrmann, Stephan and {Campos Braga}, Ramon and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Weigel, Ralf and Jurkat, Tina and Andreae, Meinrat O. and Wendisch, Manfred and P{\"{o}}schl, Ulrich and Voigt, Christiane and Mahnke, Christoph and Borrmann, Stephan and Albrecht, Rachel I. and Molleker, Sergej and Vila, Daniel A. and Machado, Luiz A.T. and Grulich, Lucas and Braga, R. C. and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Weigel, Ralf and Jurkat, Tina and Andreae, Meinrat O. and Wendisch, Manfred and P{\"{o}}schl, Ulrich and Voigt, Christiane and Mahnke, Christoph and Borrmann, Stephan},
doi = {10.5194/acp-17-14433-2017},
issn = {16807324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {23},
pages = {14433--14456},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Further evidence for CCN aerosol concentrations determining the height of warm rain and ice initiation in convective clouds over the Amazon basin}},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cannon2015a,
author = {Cannon, Forest and Carvalho, Leila M. V. and Jones, Charles and Bookhagen, Bodo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2248-8},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {441--455},
title = {{Multi-annual variations in winter westerly disturbance activity affecting the Himalaya}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2248-8},
volume = {44},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Cantu2018,
author = {Cant{\'{u}}, Anselmo Garc{\'{i}}a and Frieler, Katja and Reyer, Christopher P O and Ciais, Philippe and Chang, Jinfeng and Ito, Akihiko and Nishina, Kazuya and Fran{\c{c}}ois, Louis and Henrot, Alexandra-Jane and Hickler, Thomas and Steinkamp, J{\"{o}}rg and Rafique, Rashid and Zhao, Fang and Ostberg, Sebastian and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Tian, Hanqin and Pan, Shufen and Yang, Jia and Morfopoulos, Catherine and Betts, Richard},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac63c},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {075002},
title = {{Evaluating changes of biomass in global vegetation models: the role of turnover fluctuations and ENSO events}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=7/a=075002?key=crossref.d12c439641b9eea04aeb2b7f00e9ecc6},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Cao2012ERL,
author = {Cao, Long and Bala, Govindasamy and Caldeira, Ken},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034015},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {34015},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2F7{\%}2F3{\%}2F034015},
volume = {7},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Cao2020,
abstract = {Abstract The projected monsoon hydrological sensitivity, namely, the precipitation change rate per kelvin of global warming, shows substantial intermodel spread among 40 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. The hydrological sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is negatively correlated with that of the Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon. The intermodel spread of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon hydrological sensitivity is mainly attributed to the projected interhemispheric temperature gradients and the associated low-level cross-equatorial flows. The intermodel spread of the Afro-Asia summer monsoon sensitivity is rooted in the projected continent-ocean thermal gradients, while the spread of the North American monsoon sensitivity is related to the projected sea surface temperature pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic. These findings suggest that further constraining monsoon hydrological sensitivity requires a better projection of the warming rate between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and between the land and ocean, and the sea surface warming pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic.},
author = {Cao, Jian and Wang, Bo Bin Bo Bin and Wang, Bo Bin Bo Bin and Zhao, Haikun and Wang, Chao and Han, Ying},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL089560},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {global hydrological sensitivity circulation},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {e2020GL089560},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Sources of the inter‐model spread in projected global monsoon hydrological sensitivity}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL089560},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{CAO2016260,
abstract = {Summary
Unsustainable groundwater development shown by rapid groundwater depletion in the North China Plain (NCP) underscores the need to quantify spatiotemporal variability in groundwater recharge for improved management of the resource. The objective of this study was to assess spatiotemporal variability in recharge in response to thickening of the unsaturated zone in the NCP. Recharge was estimated by linking a soil water balance (SWB) model, on the basis of monthly meteorological data, irrigation applications, and soil moisture monitoring data (1993–2008), to the water table using a deep unsaturated zone flow model. The dynamic bottom boundary (water table) position was provided by the saturated zone flow component, which simulates regional pumping. The model results clearly indicate the effects of unsaturated zone thickening on both temporal distribution and magnitude of recharge: smoothing temporal variability in recharge, and increasing unsaturated storage and lag time between percolation and recharge. The thickening unsaturated zone can result in average recharge reduction of up to ∼70{\%} in loam soils with water table declines ⩾30m. Declining groundwater levels with irrigation sourced by groundwater converts percolation to unsaturated zone storage, averaging 14mm equivalent water depth per year in mostly loam soil over the study period, accounting for ∼30{\%} of the saturated groundwater storage depletion. This study demonstrates that, in thickening unsaturated zones, modeling approaches that directly equate deep drainage with recharge will overestimate the amount and underestimate the time lag between percolation and recharge, emphasizing the importance of more realistic simulation of the continuity of unsaturated and saturated storage to provide more reliable estimates of spatiotemporal variability in recharge.},
author = {Cao, Guoliang and Scanlon, Bridget R and Han, Dongmei and Zheng, Chunmiao},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.049},
issn = {0022-1694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Groundwater recharge,North China Plain,Soil water balance,Unsaturated flow},
pages = {260--270},
title = {{Impacts of thickening unsaturated zone on groundwater recharge in the North China Plain}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169416301548},
volume = {537},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Carlson2016,
author = {Carlson, Henrik and Caballero, Rodrigo},
doi = {10.1002/2015MS000615},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {304--318},
title = {{Enhanced MJO and transition to superrotation in warm climates}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015MS000615},
volume = {8},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Carmona2014,
abstract = {We test for the existence of long-term trends in 25- to 50-year long series of monthly rainfall, average river discharges, and minimum air temperatures in Colombia. The Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used as a mathematical filter to decompose a given time series into a finite number of intrinsic mode functions, assuming the coexistence of different frequency oscillatory modes in the series, and that the residual captures the likely existing long-term trends. The Mann-Kendall test for autocorrelated data is used to assess the statistical significance of the identified trends, and the Sen test is used to quantify their magnitudes. Results show that 62 {\%} of river discharge series exhibit significant decreasing trends between 0.01-1.92 m 3 s -1 per year, which are highly consistent downstream albeit with different ratios between the trend magnitudes and mean discharges. Most minimum temperature series (87 {\%}) exhibit increasing trends (0.01-0.08 °Cyr -1). Results for precipitation series are inconclusive owing to the mixing between increasing trends (41 {\%}, between 0.1-7.0 mm yr -1) and decreasing trends (44 {\%}, between 0.1-7.4 mm yr -1), with no clear-cut geographical pattern, except for the increasing trend identified along the Pacific region, consistent with the increasing trend identified in the strength of the Choc{\'{o}} low-level wind jet off the Pacific coast of Colombia, an important moisture source of continental precipitation. Our results contribute to discerning between signals of climate change and climate variability in tropical South America. {\textcopyright} 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.},
author = {Carmona, Alejandra M. and Poveda, Germ{\'{a}}n},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-1046-3},
isbn = {1058401310463},
issn = {01650009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate variability,Colombia,Empirical Mode Decomposition,Long term trends},
number = {2},
pages = {301--313},
title = {{Detection of long-term trends in monthly hydro-climatic series of Colombia through Empirical Mode Decomposition}},
volume = {123},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Carre2019,
author = {Carr{\'{e}}, Matthieu and Azzoug, Moufok and Zaharias, Paul and Camara, Abdoulaye and Cheddadi, Rachid and Lazareth, Claire E and Mignot, Juliette and Mitma, Nancy and Nicolas, Garc{\'{i}}a and Oc{\'{e}}ane, Patris and Malick, Perrot},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4311-3},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {1949--1964},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Modern drought conditions in western Sahel unprecedented in the past 1600 years}},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Cassou2018,
author = {Cassou, Christophe and Kushnir, Yochanan and Hawkins, Ed and Pirani, Anna and Kucharski, Fred and Kang, In-Sik and Caltabiano, Nico},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0286.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {479--490},
title = {{Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0286.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Catalano2016,
abstract = {The variance of soil moisture, vegetation and evapotranspiration over land has been recognized to be strongly connected to the variance of precipitation. However, the feedbacks and couplings between these variables are still not well understood and quantified. Furthermore, soil moisture and vegetation processes are associated to a memory and therefore they may have important implications for predictability. In this study we apply a generalized linear method, specifically designed to assess the reciprocal forcing between connected fields, to the latest available observational datasets of global precipitation, evapotranspiration, vegetation and soil moisture content. For the first time a long global observational dataset is used to investigate the spatial and temporal land variability and to characterize the relationships and feedbacks between land and precipitation. The variables considered show a significant coupling among each other. The analysis of the response of precipitation to soil moisture evidences a robust coupling between these two variables. In particular, the first two modes of variability of the precipitation forced by soil moisture appear to have a strong link with volcanic eruptions and ENSO cycles, respectively, and these links are modulated by the effects of evapotranspiration and vegetation. It is suggested that vegetation state and soil moisture provide a biophysical memory of ENSO and major volcanic eruptions, revealed through delayed feedbacks on rainfall patterns. The third mode of variability reveals a trend very similar to the trend of the inter-hemispheric contrast in SST and appears to be connected to greening/browning trends of vegetation over the last three decades.},
author = {Catalano, Franco and Alessandri, Andrea and {De Felice}, Matteo and Zhu, Zaichun and Myneni, Ranga B.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-7-251-2016},
issn = {21904987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {251--266},
title = {{Observationally based analysis of land–atmosphere coupling}},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Cattiaux2016,
abstract = {Global warming is expected to affect midlatitude atmospheric dynamics through changes in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. While the latitudinal expansion of the tropics would induce both a poleward shift and reinforcement of the westerlies, Arctic changes might counterbalance this effect. Beyond position and speed, potential changes in the flow waviness are crucial for midlatitude weather. Here we investigate such changes through an intuitive metric characterizing the flow sinuosity at 50°N. We find that despite a slight increase in recent reanalyses, the midlatitude sinuosity is projected to decrease in response to climate change according to CMIP5 simulations. Recent trends could therefore result from internal variability or different timings of tropical and polar influences. Future uncertainties are dominated by model discrepancies and partially linked to the dispersion in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient response. Our results support the hypothesis that a faster westerly flow is expected to be less sinuous (and vice-versa).},
author = {Cattiaux, Julien and Peings, Yannick and Saint-Martin, David and Trou-Kechout, Nadege and Vavrus, Stephen J.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL070309},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Arctic amplification,atmospheric dynamics,climate change,midlatitude circulation,sinuosity},
number = {15},
pages = {8259--8268},
title = {{Sinuosity of midlatitude atmospheric flow in a warming world}},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Catto2016,
abstract = {Extratropical cyclones have long been known to be important for midlatitude weather. It is therefore important that our current state‐of‐the‐art climate models are able to realistically represent these features, in order that we can have confidence in how they are projected to change in a warming climate. Despite the observation that these cyclones are extremely variable in their structure and features, there have, over the years, been numerous attempts to classify or group them. Such classifications can provide insight into the different cloud structures, airflows, and dynamical forcing mechanisms within the different cyclone types. This review collects and details as many classification techniques as possible, and may therefore act as a reference guide to classifications. These classifications offer the opportunity to improve the way extratropical cyclone evaluation in climate models is currently done by giving more insight into the dynamical and physical processes that occur in climate models (rather than just evaluating the mean state over a broad region as is often done). Examples of where these ideas have been used, or could be used, are reviewed. Finally, the potential impacts of future climate changes on extratropical cyclones are detailed. The ways in which the classification techniques could improve our understanding of future changes in extratropical cyclones and their impacts are given.},
author = {Catto, J. L.},
doi = {10.1002/2016RG000519},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {486--520},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016RG000519},
volume = {54},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Catto2015,
abstract = {Much of the day‐to‐day variability of rainfall in the midlatitudes is controlled by the passage of extratropical cyclones and their related fronts. A good representation of fronts and their associated rainfall in climate models is essential to have confidence in future projections of midlatitude precipitation. An objective front identification method has been applied to the data from ERA‐Interim and 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5) models and the fronts linked with daily precipitation estimates to investigate how winter front‐related precipitation is represented in the models. While the front frequency is well represented, the frequency of frontal precipitation is too high and the intensity is too low, thus adding little bias to the rainfall total. Although the intensity of the modeled frontal precipitation is too low, the intensity of other precipitation is even lower; thus, the ratio of frontal precipitation to total precipitation is higher in the models than in the reanalysis.},
author = {Catto, J. L. and Jakob, C. and Nicholls, N.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL066015},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {8596--8604},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Can the CMIP5 models represent winter frontal precipitation?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL066015},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{cjn12,
author = {Catto, J. L. and Jakob, C and Nicholls, N},
doi = {10.1029/2012JD017472},
issn = {01480227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {may},
number = {D10},
pages = {D10102},
title = {{The influence of changes in synoptic regimes on north Australian wet season rainfall trends}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012JD017472},
volume = {117},
year = {2012}
}
@book{Cavalcante2019,
abstract = {The hydrological effects of forest cover loss are difficult to discern in the case of large-scale basins with gradual changes and difficult to isolate when climate variability is also present. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of climate variability and human activity on the annual streamflow in a basin in the Amazon arc of deforestation. We statistically analyzed the components of the annual water balance and monthly streamflow and used the currently used Tomer-Schilling, elasticity, and decomposition of Budyko-type curve methods to separate climate-induced changes and anthropogenic effects. Annual series of the monthly maximum and minimum streamflow, total streamflow, and total reference evapotranspiration presented statistically significant increasing trends. No significant trend was observed for precipitation. The greatest change in the average annual runoff coefficient was observed between the first (1973–1984) and second (1985–1994) analyzed periods. Even with the continuous reduction in the forested area, the third (1994–2004) and fourth analyzed periods (2003–2016) showed only relatively small changes, most likely due to the intensity of slash-and-burn activities and vegetation regrowth. The methods showed that deforestation was the primary cause of the streamflow changes, but with different intensities, and a small recuperation was observed in the last analyzed period. On average, the annual water yield would increase between 26{\%} and 58{\%} after the first time interval without the opposite effect of climate variability, which must be considered in basin management. Future research should focus on analyzing the water storage and the dependence of the precipitation-runoff relationship from the climate.},
author = {Cavalcante, R. B.L. and Pontes, P. R.M. and Souza-Filho, P. W.M. and de Souza, E. B.},
booktitle = {Water Resources Research},
doi = {10.1029/2019WR025083},
isbn = {0000000302},
issn = {19447973},
keywords = {Budyko hypothesis,Itacai{\'{u}}nas River basin,climate change,deforestation,streamflow changes,trend detection},
number = {4},
pages = {3092--3106},
title = {{Opposite Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Annual Water Balance in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation}},
volume = {55},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Cavazos2020,
abstract = {Abstract An intercomparison of three regional climate models (RCMs) (PRECIS-HadRM3P, RCA4, and RegCM4) was performed over the Coordinated Regional Dynamical Experiment (CORDEX)?Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico (CAM) domain to determine their ability to reproduce observed temperature and precipitation trends during 1980?2010. Particular emphasis was given to the North American monsoon (NAM) and the mid-summer drought (MSD) regions. The three RCMs show negative (positive) temperature (precipitation) biases over the mountains, where observations have more problems due to poor data coverage. Observations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and ERA-Interim show a generalized warming over the domain. The most significant warming trend (≥0.34°C/decade) is observed in the NAM, which is moderately captured by the three RCMs, but with less intensity; each decade from 1970 to 2016 has become warmer than the previous ones, especially during the summer (mean and extremes); this warming appears partially related to the positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). CRU, GPCP, and CHIRPS show significant decreases of precipitation (less than ?15{\%}/decade) in parts of the southwest United States and northwestern Mexico, including the NAM, and a positive trend (5?10{\%}/decade) in June?September in eastern Mexico, the MSD region, and northern South America, but longer trends (1950?2017) are not statistically significant. RCMs are able to moderately simulate some of the recent trends, especially in winter. In spite of their mean biases, the RCMs are able to adequately simulate inter-annual and seasonal variations. Wet (warm) periods in regions affected by the MSD are significantly correlated with the +AMO and La Ni{\~{n}}a events (+AMO and El Ni{\~{n}}o). Summer precipitation trends from GPCP show opposite signs to those of CRU and CHIRPS over the Mexican coasts of the southern Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Cuba, possibly due to data limitations and differences in grid resolutions.},
author = {Cavazos, Tereza and Luna-Ni{\~{n}}o, Rosa and Cerezo-Mota, Ruth and Fuentes-Franco, Ram{\'{o}}n and M{\'{e}}ndez, Mat{\'{i}}as and {Pineda Mart{\'{i}}nez}, Luis Felipe and Valenzuela, Ernesto},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6276},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {CORDEX-CAM,MSD,Mexico,NAM,climatic trends,model intercomparison,regional climate models},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1396--1420},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Climatic trends and regional climate models intercomparison over the CORDEX-CAM (Central America, Caribbean, and Mexico) domain}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6276},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ceppi2017,
abstract = {AbstractThe projected response of the atmospheric circulation to the radiative changes induced by CO2 forcing and climate feedbacks is currently uncertain. In this modeling study, the impact of CO2-induced climate feedbacks on changes in jet latitude and speed is assessed by imposing surface albedo, cloud, and water vapor feedbacks as if they were forcings in two climate models, CAM4 and ECHAM6. The jet response to radiative feedbacks can be broadly interpreted through changes in midlatitude baroclinicity. Clouds enhance baroclinicity, favoring a strengthened, poleward-shifted jet; this is mitigated by surface albedo changes, which have the opposite effect on baroclinicity and the jet, while water vapor has opposing effects on upper- and lower-level baroclinicity with little net impact on the jet. Large differences between the CAM4 and ECHAM6 responses illustrate how model uncertainty in radiative feedbacks causes a large spread in the baroclinicity response to CO2 forcing. Across the CMIP5 models, differ...},
author = {Ceppi, Paulo and Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0189.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric Climate models,Clouds,Feedback,Jets,Model comparison},
number = {22},
pages = {9097--9118},
title = {{Contributions of climate feedbacks to changes in atmospheric circulation}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ceppi2017b,
abstract = {Climate feedbacks generally become smaller in magnitude over time under CO2 forcing in coupled climate models, leading to an increase in the effective climate sensitivity, the estimated global-mean surface warming in steady state for doubled CO2. Here, we show that the evolution of climate feedbacks in models is consistent with the effect of a change in tropospheric stability, as has recently been hypothesized, and the latter is itself driven by the evolution of the pattern of sea-surface temperature response. The change in climate feedback is mainly associated with a decrease in marine tropical low cloud (a more positive shortwave cloud feedback) and with a less negative lapse-rate feedback, as expected from a decrease in stability. Smaller changes in surface albedo and humidity feedbacks also contribute to the overall change in feedback, but are unexplained by stability. The spatial pattern of feedback changes closely matches the pattern of stability changes, with the largest increase in feedback occurring in the tropical East Pacific. Relationships qualitatively similar to those in the models among sea-surface temperature pattern, stability, and radiative budget are also found in observations on interannual time scales. Our results suggest that constraining the future evolution of sea-surface temperature patterns and tropospheric stability will be necessary for constraining climate sensitivity.},
author = {Ceppi, Paulo and Gregory, Jonathan M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1714308114},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate feedbacks,Climate sensitivity,Clouds,Radiative budget},
month = {dec},
number = {50},
pages = {13126--13131},
title = {{Relationship of tropospheric stability to climate sensitivity and Earth's observed radiation budget}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/114/50/13126.abstract},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ceppi2018,
abstract = {Poleward shifts of the extratropical atmospheric circulation are a common response to CO2 forcing in global climate models (GCMs), but little is known about the time dependence of this response. Here it is shown that in coupled climate models, the long-term evolution of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) induces two distinct time scales of circulation response to steplike CO2 forcing. In most GCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project as well as in the multimodel mean, all of the poleward shift of the midlatitude jets and Hadley cell edge occurs in a fast response within 5–10 years of the forcing, during which less than half of the expected equilibrium warming is realized. Compared with this fast response, the slow response over subsequent decades to centuries features stronger polar amplification (especially in the Antarctic), enhanced warming in the Southern Ocean, an El Ni{\~{n}}o–like pattern of tropical Pacific warming, and weaker land–sea contrast. Atmosphere-only GCM experiments demonstrate that the SST evolution drives the difference between the fast and slow circulation responses, although the direct radiative effect of CO2 also contributes to the fast response. It is further shown that the fast and slow responses determine the long-term evolution of the circulation response to warming in the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. The results imply that shifts in midlatitude circulation generally scale with the radiative forcing, rather than with global-mean temperature change. A corollary is that time slices taken from a transient simulation at a given level of warming will considerably overestimate the extratropical circulation response in a stabilized climate.},
author = {Ceppi, Paulo and Zappa, Giuseppe and Shepherd, Theodore G. and Gregory, Jonathan M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0323.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Climate change,Climate models,Jets,Radiative forcing},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1091--1105},
title = {{Fast and Slow Components of the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to CO2 Forcing}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0323.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chadburn2015b,
abstract = {It is important to correctly simulate permafrost in global climate models, since the stored carbon represents the source of a potentially important climate feedback. This carbon feedback depends on the physical state of the permafrost. We have therefore included improved physical permafrost processes in JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator), which is the land-surface scheme used in the Hadley Centre climate models. The thermal and hydraulic properties of the soil were modified to account for the presence of organic matter, and the insulating effects of a surface layer of moss were added, allowing for fractional moss cover. These processes are particularly relevant in permafrost zones. We also simulate a higher-resolution soil column and deeper soil, and include an additional thermal column at the base of the soil to represent bedrock. In addition, the snow scheme was improved to allow it to run with arbitrarily thin layers. Point-site simulations at Samoylov Island, Siberia, show that the model is now able to simulate soil temperatures and thaw depth much closer to the observations. The root mean square error for the near-surface soil temperatures reduces by approximately 30{\%}, and the active layer thickness is reduced from being over 1 m too deep to within 0.1 m of the observed active layer thickness. All of the model improvements contribute to improving the simulations, with organic matter having the single greatest impact. A new method is used to estimate active layer depth more accurately using the fraction of unfrozen water. Soil hydrology and snow are investigated further by holding the soil moisture fixed and adjusting the parameters to make the soil moisture and snow density match better with observations. The root mean square error in near-surface soil temperatures is reduced by a further 20{\%} as a result.},
author = {Chadburn, S. and Burke, E. and Essery, R. and Boike, J. and Langer, M. and Heikenfeld, M. and Cox, P. and Friedlingstein, P.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015},
issn = {19919603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {5},
pages = {1493--1508},
title = {{An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land-surface model}},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Chadwick_2013,
abstract = {Changes in the patterns of tropical precipitation (P) and circulation are analyzed in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. A robust weakening of the tropical circulation is seen across models, associated with a divergence feedback that acts to reduce convection most in areas of largest climatological ascent. This is in contrast to the convergence feedback seen in interannual variability of tropical precipitation patterns. The residual pattern of convective mass-flux change is associated with shifts in convergence zones due to mechanisms such as SST gradient change, and this is often locally larger than the weakening due to the divergence feedback. A simple framework is constructed to separate precipitation change into components based on different mechanisms and to relate it directly to circulation change. While the tropical mean increase in precipitation is due to the residual between the positive thermodynamic change due to increased specific humidity and the decreased convective mass flux due to the weakening of the circulation, the spatial patterns of these two components largely cancel each other out. The rich-get-richer mechanism of greatest precipitation increases in ascent regions is almost negated by this cancellation, explaining why the spatial correlation between climatological P and the climate change anomaly Delta P is only 0.2 over the tropics for the CMIP5 multimodel mean. This leaves the spatial pattern of precipitation change to be dominated by the component associated with shifts in convergence zones, both in the multimodel mean and intermodel uncertainty, with the component due to relative humidity change also becoming important over land.},
annote = {wet get wetter response negated by slowing tropical circulation, spatial patterns of precipitation change dominated by shifts in convergence zones with changes in relative humidity becoming important over land},
author = {Chadwick, Robin and Boutle, Ian and Martin, Gill},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00543.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {3803--3822},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: Why the rich do not get richer in the tropics}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2Fjcli-d-12-00543.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Chadwick2015,
abstract = {Many tropical countries are exceptionally vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, with floods or droughts often severely affecting human life and health, food and water supplies, ecosystems and infrastructure1. There is widespread disagreement among climate model projections of how and where rainfall will change over tropical land at the regional scales relevant to impacts2,3,4, with different models predicting the position of current tropical wet and dry regions to shift in different ways5,6. Here we show that despite uncertainty in the location of future rainfall shifts, climate models consistently project that large rainfall changes will occur for a considerable proportion of tropical land over the twenty-first century. The area of semi-arid land affected by large changes under a higher emissions scenario is likely to be greater than during even the most extreme regional wet or dry periods of the twentieth century, such as the Sahel drought of the late 1960s to 1990s. Substantial changes are projected to occur by mid-century—earlier than previously expected2,7—and to intensify in line with global temperature rise. Therefore, current climate projections contain quantitative, decision-relevant information on future regional rainfall changes, particularly with regard to climate change mitigation policy.},
annote = {despite uncertainty in location of future rainfall shifts, climate models consistently project large rainfall changes will occur for considerable proportions of tropical land over 21st century.},
author = {Chadwick, Robin and Good, Peter and Martin, Gill and Rowell, David P.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2805},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {2},
pages = {177--181},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Large rainfall changes consistently projected over substantial areas of tropical land}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fnclimate2805},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Chadwick2016,
abstract = {AbstractA simple conceptual model of surface specific humidity change over land is described, based on the effect of increased moisture advection from the oceans in response to sea surface temperature (SST) warming. In this model, future q over land is determined by scaling the present-day pattern of land q by the fractional increase in the oceanic moisture source. Simple model estimates agree well with climate model projections of future (mean spatial correlation coefficient 0.87), so over both land and ocean can be viewed primarily as a thermodynamic process controlled by SST warming. Precipitation change is also affected by , and the new simple model can be included in a decomposition of tropical precipitation change, where it provides increased physical understanding of the processes that drive over land. Confidence in the thermodynamic part of extreme precipitation change over land is increased by this improved understanding, and this should scale approximately with Clausius–Clapeyron oceanic q incre...},
author = {Chadwick, Robin and Good, Peter and Willett, Kate},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0241.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Humidity,Hydrologic cycle,Hydrology,Moisture/moisture budget},
number = {21},
pages = {7613--7632},
title = {{A simple moisture advection model of specific humidity change over land in response to SST warming}},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Chadwick2017,
abstract = {A set of atmosphere-only timeslice experiments are described, designed to examine the processes that cause regional climate change and inter-model uncertainty in coupled climate model responses to CO2 forcing. The timeslice experiments are able to reproduce the pattern of regional climate change in the coupled models, and are applied here to two cases where inter-model uncertainty in future projections is large: the tropical hydrological cycle, and European winter circulation. In tropical forest regions, the plant physiological effect is the largest cause of hydrological cycle change in the two models that represent this process. This suggests that the CMIP5 ensemble mean may be underestimating the magnitude of water cycle change in these regions, due to the inclusion of models without the plant effect. SST pattern change is the dominant cause of precipitation and circulation change over the tropical oceans, and also appears to contribute to inter-model uncertainty in precipitation change over tropical land regions. Over Europe and the North Atlantic, uniform SST increases drive a poleward shift of the storm-track. However this does not consistently translate into an overall polewards storm-track shift, due to large circulation responses to SST pattern change, which varies across the models. Coupled model SST biases influence regional rainfall projections in regions such as the Maritime Continent, and so projections in these regions should be treated with caution.},
author = {Chadwick, Robin and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Skinner, Christopher B.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3488-6},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate model European winter circulation,Regional climate change,Tropical hydrological cycle},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3011--3029},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Timeslice experiments for understanding regional climate projections: applications to the tropical hydrological cycle and European winter circulation}},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Chadwick2014,
author = {Chadwick, Robin and Good, Peter and Andrews, Timothy and Martin, Gill},
doi = {10.1002/2013GL058504},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {610--615},
title = {{Surface warming patterns drive tropical rainfall pattern responses to CO2 forcing on all timescales}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013GL058504},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Chadwick2013a,
abstract = {Using a traceable framework of idealized General Circulation Model experiments, a nonlinear dependence of tropical precipitation pattern change on CO2 forcing is identified. These nonlinearities are relatively large and widespread throughout the tropics and so should not be neglected in projections of future precipitation change. This has implications for the use of pattern scaling and simple climate models to produce precipitation projections and for physical understanding of precipitation change across forcing scenarios. The nonlinearities can be understood by considering that processes which cause precipitation change, such as increasing moisture, a weakening circulation, and convergence zone shifts, interact in a nonlinear manner even when individual processes are quasi-linear. Three driver interactions are identified: “warm-shift”, “warm-weak”, and “shift-weak”. Combined with Clausius-Clapeyron nonlinearity in moisture increase, these interactions drive the nonlinear pattern change. A strong convergence feedback response substantially amplifies the nonlinearity. This analysis is limited to ocean regions, as mechanisms are simpler than over land.},
author = {Chadwick, Robin and Good, Peter},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50932},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {4911--4915},
title = {{Understanding nonlinear tropical precipitation responses to CO2 forcing}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50932},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Chan_2016,
abstract = {Flash flooding is often caused by sub-hourly rainfall extremes. Here, we examine southern UK sub-hourly 10 min rainfall from Met Office state-of-the-art convective-permitting model simulations for the present and future climate. Observational studies have shown that the duration of rainfall can decrease with temperature in summer in some regions. The duration decrease coincides with an intensification of sub-hourly rainfall extremes. This suggests that rainfall duration and sub-hourly rainfall intensity may change in future under climate change with important implications for future changes in flash flooding risk. The simulations show clear intensification of sub-hourly rainfall, but we fail to detect any decrease in rainfall duration. In fact, model results suggest the opposite with a slight (probably insignificant) lengthening of both extreme and non-extreme rainfall events in the future. The lengthening is driven by rainfall intensification without clear changes in the shape of the event profile. Other metrics are also examined, including the relationship between intense 10 min rainfall and temperature, and return levels changes; all are consistent with results found for hourly rainfall. No evaluation of model performance at the sub-hourly timescale is possible, highlighting the need for high-quality sub-hourly observations. Such sub-hourly observations will advance our understanding of the future risks of flash flooding.},
annote = {characteristics of summer sub-hourly rainfall over southern UK in high-resolution convective permitting model},
author = {Chan, S. C. and Kendon, E. J. and Roberts, N. M. and Fowler, H. J. and Blenkinsop, S.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094024},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {convective permitting model,rainfall,regional climate model,sub-hourly rainfall},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {94024},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{The characteristics of summer sub-hourly rainfall over the southern UK in a high-resolution convective permitting model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2F11{\%}2F9{\%}2F094024},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Chan2018a,
abstract = {AbstractMidlatitude extreme precipitation events are caused by well-understood meteorological drivers, such as vertical instability and low pressure systems. In principle, dynamical weather and climate models behave in the same way, although perhaps with the sensitivities to the drivers varying between models. Unlike parameterized convection models (PCMs), convection-permitting models (CPMs) are able to realistically capture subdaily extreme precipitation. CPMs are computationally expensive; being able to diagnose the occurrence of subdaily extreme precipitation from large-scale drivers, with sufficient skill, would allow effective targeting of CPM downscaling simulations. Here the regression relationships are quantified between the occurrence of extreme hourly precipitation events and vertical stability and circulation predictors in southern United Kingdom 1.5-km CPM and 12-km PCM present- and future-climate simulations. Overall, the large-scale predictors demonstrate skill in predicting the occurrence o...},
author = {Chan, Steven C. and Kendon, Elizabeth J. and Roberts, Nigel and Blenkinsop, Stephen and Fowler, Hayley J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0404.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere,Climate models,Europe,Mesoscale models,Model comparison,Regression analysis},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2115--2131},
title = {{Large-Scale Predictors for Extreme Hourly Precipitation Events in Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0404.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chan2019,
abstract = {The local tropical-cyclone-related rainfall totals largely depend on the rain rate near the center and the translation speed of a tropical cyclone. Understanding how they respond to a changing climate has been a hot topic. A recent astounding study reported a 10{\%} slowdown in global tropical-cyclone translation speed over the past 68 years (1949–2016) and implicitly related this to the weakening of tropical circulation forced by the anthropogenic warming. It thereby suggested that it might result in more local rainfall totals in a warming climate. However, here this study shows that no robust and significant observational and modeling evidences reveal that they are. The data artefacts introduced by the changes in measurement practices, particularly the introduction of satellite capabilities since the 1970s, are likely the main source of heterogeneities leading to such disagreement. The global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed becomes indeterminate and a significant global speedup trend is even found over land if the records in more reliable satellite sensing era period starting from 1970 are examined, where this period is also the most pronounced warming period in the last half-century. The relationship between the slowdown of tropical cyclones and anthropogenic warming is therefore not apparent and the relevant potential increase in local rainfall totals in the future warming climate is suspicious.},
author = {Chan, Kelvin T F},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab4031},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {10},
pages = {104015},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Are global tropical cyclones moving slower in a warming climate?}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4031},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chandan2020,
abstract = {Abstract The African Humid Period (?11,000?5,000?years before present) was the most recent of several precessionally paced wet intervals during which an increase in the Northern Hemisphere summer incoming solar radiation intensifies the West African Monsoon leading to dramatic changes over northern Africa. However, insolation anomaly alone is not sufficient and feedbacks are essential for further amplification of the monsoon. The most significant feedbacks derive from the land surface, arising from changes to vegetation, soil properties, and distribution of surface water. We show that in contrast to previous studies that have explored the individual impacts of these feedbacks, a modern climate model yields a much greater increase in precipitation in response to their collective effect. Agreement with proxies is improved while the desert-steppe transition is pushed further northward than in any previous study. In the West African Sahel, intensities of summer daily mean and extreme precipitation increase by 150{\%} and 90{\%}, respectively.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088728},
author = {Chandan, Deepak and Peltier, W. Richard},
doi = {10.1029/2020gl088728},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {n Humid Period,Green Sahara,West n Monsoon,mid-Holocene},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {e2020GL088728},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{African Humid Period Precipitation Sustained by Robust Vegetation, Soil, and Lake Feedbacks}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088728},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{ChandanaK.R.BanerjiU.S.2018,
abstract = {Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is critical to understandtheglobal hydrological and carbon cycles and acts as amajor driving force of earth's climate system. Paleoclimatic evidences however, suggests episodic weakening and intensification of ISM in the past since its initiation. The weather system and socio-economy of Indian subcontinent depends on the ISM strength;thus,it is important to comprehend the centennial and millennial scale variabilityof ISM on northern Indian Ocean. Thepaper attemptsto review the response of two basins in the northern Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal) towards changing ISM intensities since Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Further, we also tried to reconcile the knowledge gaps thatneed to be addressed in the paleoclimatic reconstruction of ISM from marine records whichwill reinvigoratemodelers and policy makers to have prospects of amended predictions with imperative and robust strategies.},
author = {Chandana, K.R. and Banerji, U.S. and Bhushan, R.},
journal = {Earth Science India},
number = {1},
pages = {71--84},
title = {{Review on Indian summer monsoon (ISM) reconstructions since LGM from Northern Indian Ocean}},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chandran2016,
author = {Chandran, Alisha and Basha, Ghouse and Ouarda, T. B. M. J.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4339},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {225--235},
title = {{Influence of climate oscillations on temperature and precipitation over the United Arab Emirates}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4339},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Chang2013,
abstract = {The climatological storm-track activity simulated by 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)/phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models is compared to that in the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). Nearly half of the models show significant biases in storm-track amplitude: four models simulate storm tracks that are either significantly ({\textgreater}20{\%}) too strong or too weak in both hemispheres, while four other models have interhemispheric storm-track ratios that are biased by over 10{\%}. Consistent with previous studies, storm-track amplitude is found to be negatively correlated with grid spacing. The interhemispheric ratio of storm-track activity is highly correlated with the interhemispheric ratio of mean available potential energy, and this ratio is biased in some model simulations due to biases in the midlatitude temperature gradients. In terms of geographical pattern, the storm tracks in most CMIP3 models exhibit an equatorward bias in both hemispheres. For the seasonal cycle, most models can capture the equatorward migration and strengthening of the storm tracks during the cool season, but some models exhibit biases in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. Possible implications of model biases in storm-track climatology have been investigated. For both hemispheres, models with weak storm tracks tend to have larger percentage changes in storm-track amplitudes over the seasonal cycle. Under global warming, for the NH, models with weak storm tracks tend to project larger percentage changes in storm-track amplitude whereas, for the SH, models with large equatorward biases in storm-track latitude tend to project larger poleward shifts. Preliminary results suggest that CMIP5 model projections also share these behaviors.},
author = {Chang, Edmund K M and Guo, Yanjuan and Xia, Xiaoming and Zheng, Minghua},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00707.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {1},
pages = {246--260},
title = {{Storm-track activity in IPCC AR4/CMIP3 model simulations}},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Chang2016a,
abstract = {Extratropical cyclones cause much of the high-impact weather over$\backslash$nthe midlatitudes. With increasing greenhouse gases, enhanced high-latitude$\backslash$nwarming will lead to weaker cyclone activity. Here we show that between$\backslash$n1979 and 2014, the number of strong cyclones in Northern Hemisphere$\backslash$nin summer has decreased at a rate of 4{\%} per decade, with even larger$\backslash$ndecrease found near northeastern North America. Climate models project$\backslash$na decrease in summer cyclone activity, but the observed decreasing$\backslash$nrate is near the fastest projected. Decrease in summer cyclone activity$\backslash$nwill lead to decrease in cloud cover, giving rise to higher maximum$\backslash$ntemperature, potentially enhancing the increase in maximum temperature$\backslash$nby 0.5?K or more over some regions. We also show that climate models$\backslash$nmay have biases in simulating the positive relationship between cyclone$\backslash$nactivity and cloud cover, potentially underestimating the impacts$\backslash$nof cyclone decrease on accentuating the future increase in maximum$\backslash$ntemperature.},
author = {Chang, Edmund K. M. and Ma, Chen‐Geng and Zheng, Cheng and Yau, Albert M. W.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL068172},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2200--2208},
title = {{Observed and projected decrease in Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity in summer and its impacts on maximum temperature}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068172},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Chang2018,
abstract = {Most land surface models (LSMs) used in Earth System Models produce a lower ratio of transpiration (T) to evapotranspiration (ET) than field observations, degrading the credibility of Earth System Model-projected ecosystem responses and feedbacks to climate change. To interpret this model deficiency, we conducted a pair of model experiments using a three-dimensional, process-based ecohydrological model in a subhumid, mountainous catchment. One experiment (CTRL) describes lateral water flow, topographic shading, leaf dynamics, and water vapor diffusion in the soil, while the other (LSM like) does not explicitly describe these processes to mimic a conventional LSM using artificially flattened terrain. Averaged over the catchment, CTRL produced a higher T/ET ratio (72{\%}) than LSM like (55{\%}) and agreed better with an independent estimate (79.79 ± 27{\%}) based on rainfall and stream water isotopes. To discern the exact causes, we conducted additional model experiments, each reverting only one process described in CTRL to that of LSM like. These experiments revealed that the enhanced T/ET ratio was mostly caused by lateral water flow and water vapor diffusion within the soil. In particular, terrain-driven lateral water flows spread out soil moisture to a wider range along hillslopes with an optimum subrange from the middle to upper slopes, where evaporation (E) was more suppressed by the drier surface than T due to plant uptake of deep soil water, thereby enhancing T/ET. A more elaborate representation of water vapor diffusion from a dynamically changing evaporating surface to the height of the surface roughness length reduced E and increased the T/ET ratio.},
author = {Chang, Li Ling and Dwivedi, Ravindra and Knowles, John F. and Fang, Yuan Hao and Niu, Guo Yue and Pelletier, Jon D. and Rasmussen, Craig and Durcik, Matej and Barron-Gafford, Greg A. and Meixner, Thomas},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD029159},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = { partitioning,complex mountain terrain,land surface models (LSMs),lateral surface and subsurface flows,soil surface evaporation,three-dimensional process-based ecohydrological mo},
number = {17},
pages = {9109--9130},
title = {{Why Do Large-Scale Land Surface Models Produce a Low Ratio of Transpiration to Evapotranspiration?}},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chang2018a,
abstract = {In this study, 19 simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been analyzed to examine how winter cyclones producing extreme near-surface winds are projected to change. Extreme wind thresholds correspond to a top 5 or top 1 cyclone per winter month in the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH). The results show that CMIP5 models project a significant decrease in the number of such cyclones, with a 19-model mean decrease of about 17{\%} for the entire NH toward the end of the twenty-first century, under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario. The projected decrease is larger in the Atlantic (about 21{\%}). Over the Pacific, apart from an overall decrease (about 13{\%}), there is a northeastward shift in the extreme cyclone activity. Less decrease is found in the frequency of cyclones producing extreme winds at 850 hPa (about 5{\%} hemisphere-wide), with models mainly projecting a northeastward shift in the Pacific. These results suggest that 850-hPa wind changes may not be a good proxy for near-surface wind changes. These results contrast with those for the Southern Hemisphere, in which the frequency of cyclones with extreme winds are projected to significantly increase in all four seasons.},
author = {Chang, Edmund Kar Man},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0899.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Extratropical cyclones,Extreme events,Northern Hemisphere,Wind},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6527--6542},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{CMIP5 projected change in Northern Hemisphere winter cyclones with associated extreme winds}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chang2016b,
abstract = {In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction--National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 {\{}{\%}{\}} or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by {\textless}10 {\{}{\%}{\}}. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic.},
author = {Chang, Edmund K.M. and Yau, Albert M.W.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2911-8},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1435--1454},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets}},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Charney:1975,
author = {Charney, Jule G},
doi = {10.1002/qj.49710142802},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {428},
pages = {193--202},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49710142802},
volume = {101},
year = {1975}
}
@article{Chauvin2017,
abstract = {Water budgets in tropical cyclones (TCs) are computed in the ERA-interim (ERAI) re-analysis and the CNRM-CM5 model for the late 20th and 21st centuries. At a 6-hourly timescale and averaged over a 5∘× 5∘box around a TC center, the main contribution to rainfall is moisture convergence, with decreasing contribution of evaporation for increasing rainfall intensities. It is found that TC rainfall in ERAI and the model are underestimated when compared with the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM), probably due to underestimated TC winds in ERAI vs. observed TCs. It is also found that relative increase in TC rainfall between the second half of the 20th and 21st centuries may surpass the rate of change suggested by the Clausius–Clapeyron formula. It may even reach twice this rate for reduced spatial domains corresponding to the highest cyclonic rainfall. This is in agreement with an expected positive feedback between TC rainfall intensity and dynamics.},
author = {Chauvin, Fabrice and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Ribes, Aur{\'{e}}lien},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3559-3},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atlantic tropical cyclone,Clausius–Clapeyron,Climate change,Water budget},
number = {11-12},
pages = {4009--4021},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Atlantic tropical cyclones water budget in observations and CNRM-CM5 model}},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Chegwidden2019,
abstract = {Methodological choices can have strong effects on projections of climate change impacts on hydrology. In this study, we investigate the ways in which four different steps in the modeling chain influence the spread in projected changes of different aspects of hydrology. To form the basis of these analyses, we constructed an ensemble of 160 simulations from permutations of two Representative Concentration Pathways, 10 global climate models, two downscaling methods, and four hydrologic model implementations. The study is situated in the Pacific Northwest of North America, which has relevance to a diverse, multinational cast of stakeholders. We analyze the effects of each modeling decision on changes in gridded hydrologic variables of snow water equivalent and runoff, as well as streamflow at point locations. Results show that the choice of representative concentration pathway or global climate model is the driving contributor to the spread in annual streamflow volume and timing. On the other hand, hydrologic model implementation explains most of the spread in changes in low flows. Finally, by grouping the results by climate region the results have the potential to be generalized beyond the Pacific Northwest. Future hydrologic impact assessments can use these results to better tailor their modeling efforts.},
author = {Chegwidden, Oriana S. and Nijssen, Bart and Rupp, David E. and Arnold, Jeffrey R. and Clark, Martyn P. and Hamman, Joseph J. and Kao, Shih Chieh and Mao, Yixin and Mizukami, Naoki and Mote, Philip W. and Pan, Ming and Pytlak, Erik and Xiao, Mu},
doi = {10.1029/2018EF001047},
isbn = {0000000221},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {Pacific Northwest,climate impacts,hydroclimatology,hydrologic ensemble spread},
number = {6},
pages = {623--637},
title = {{How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections? Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates}},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chemke2020b,
abstract = {Abstract The projected weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell will have large climatic impacts at low latitudes. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this weakening. In order to isolate and assess their relative importance, we here use the abrupt 4 ?CO2 experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, as this forcing separates the different mechanisms which respond on different time scales. We find that the Hadley circulation responds relatively quickly to quadrupling CO2 concentrations, reaching its steady-state value after less than a decade. This fast response demonstrates that the weakening could not be solely due to the much slower increase in surface temperature. In addition, we show that the Hadley cell's weakening results from a combination of an increase in tropical static stability, partially offset by an increase in the latitudinal gradient of latent heating.},
annote = {Projected weakening of northen hemisphere Hadley Cell driven by fast responses to CO2 radiative forcing},
author = {Chemke, R and Polvani, L M},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090348},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {3},
pages = {e2020GL090348},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for Hadley cell weakening under 4 × CO2 forcing}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090348},
volume = {48},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Chemke2019JCLim,
abstract = {Future emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are projected to result in significant circulation changes. One of the most important changes is the widening of the tropical belt, which has great societal impacts. Several mechanisms (changes in surface temperature, eddy phase speed, tropopause height, and static stability) have been proposed to explain this widening. However, the coupling between these mechanisms has precluded elucidating their relative importance. Here, the abrupt quadrupled-CO2 simulations of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to examine the proposed mechanisms. The different time responses of the different mechanisms allow us to disentangle and evaluate them. As suggested by earlier studies, the Hadley cell edge is found to be linked to changes in subtropical baroclinicity. In particular, its poleward shift is accompanied by an increase in subtropical static stability (i.e., a decrease in temperature lapse rate) with increased CO2 concentrations. These subtropical changes also affect the eddy momentum flux, which shifts poleward together with the Hadley cell edge. Transient changes in tropopause height, eddy phase speed, and surface temperature, however, were found not to accompany the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edge. The widening of the Hadley cell, together with the increase in moisture content, accounts for most of the expansion of the dry zone. Eddy moisture fluxes, on the other hand, are found to play a minor role in the expansion of the dry zone.},
author = {Chemke, Rei and Polvani, Lorenzo M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0330.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric Climate change,General  Hadley Meridional overturning },
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {859--875},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Exploiting the abrupt 4 × CO2 scenario to elucidate tropical expansion mechanisms}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2Fjcli-d-18-0330.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chen2018c,
author = {Chen, Xi and Wang, Shanshan and Hu, Zengyun and Zhou, Qiming and Hu, Qi},
doi = {10.1007/s11442-018-1529-2},
issn = {1009-637X},
journal = {Journal of Geographical Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1341--1368},
title = {{Spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal precipitation and their relationships with ENSO in Central Asia during 1901–2013}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11442-018-1529-2},
volume = {28},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chen2008,
abstract = {The extratropical annular-mode-like atmospheric responses to ENSO and global warming and the internal variability of annular modes are associated with similar, yet distinct, dynamical characteristics. In particular, La Ni{\~{n}}a, global warming, and the positive phase of annular modes are all associated with a poleward shift of midlatitude jet streams and surface westerlies. To improve understanding of these phenomena, the authors identify and compare patterns of interannual variability and global warming trends in the midlatitude surface westerlies and the space–time spectra of associated eddy momentum fluxes by analyzing simulations of the present climate in an atmosphere-only climate model, in which the ENSO-induced extratropical response is validated with that in reanalysis data, and by projection of future climate changes using a coupled atmosphere–ocean model.},
author = {Chen, Gang and Lu, Jian and Frierson, Dargan M. W.},
doi = {10.1175/2008JCLI2306.1},
issn = {1520-0442},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {5942--5959},
title = {{Phase Speed Spectra and the Latitude of Surface Westerlies: Interannual Variability and Global Warming Trend}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2008JCLI2306.1},
volume = {21},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Chen2007,
abstract = {The poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere surface westerlies in recent decades is examined in reanalysis data and in the output of coupled atmosphere-ocean and uncoupled atmospheric models. The space-time spectra of the eddy momentum fluxes in the upper troposphere reveal a trend that marks an increase in the eastward phase speed of the tropospheric eddies accompanied by a poleward displacement of the region of wave breaking in the subtropics. A dynamical mechanism is suggested that may help explain the connections among the lower stratospheric wind anomalies, the increased eastward propagation of tropospheric eddies and the poleward shift of the tropospheric circulation.},
author = {Chen, Gang and Held, Isaac M.},
doi = {10.1029/2007GL031200},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {L21805},
title = {{Phase speed spectra and the recent poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere surface westerlies}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2007GL031200},
volume = {34},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Chen2017c,
author = {Chen, Huopo and Sun, Jianqi},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.11.044},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {jan},
pages = {306--318},
title = {{Anthropogenic warming has caused hot droughts more frequently in China}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169416307508},
volume = {544},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Chen2018e,
abstract = {For East Asia, circulation responses to anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing dominate aerosol-precipitation interactions. To gain insights, this study analyzed CESM simulated circulation changes related to the ‘north drought and south flood' pattern caused by aerosol increases between two cases. One case was driven by the year-1850 global emission inventory, whereas the other used identical emissions for all regions except East Asia where anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors of the year-2000 were imposed. Results show that the cooling caused by increased aerosols, which peaks at the middle latitudes, induces two intervened anomalous circulations in the troposphere. Near the surface, the increased land pressure weakens the southerlies and reduces the moisture transport for the entire eastern China. Meanwhile, in the free troposphere, the anomalous circulation exhibits remarkable meridional variations. While convergence occurs over 25°–45°N which partially compensates the decrease of moisture transport from lower levels, divergence develops over regions to the north which enhances the moisture deficiency. In addition, the southward shift of the jet stream stimulates anomalous rising and sinking motions over the south and north of 32°N. The combination of these changes leads to precipitation increase in the Yangtze River Valley but decrease over North China.},
author = {Chen, Guoxing and Wang, Wei Chyung and Chen, Jen Ping},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4267-3},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Aerosol climate forcing,East Asia,Jet stream,Summer monsoon},
number = {11-12},
pages = {3973--3984},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Circulation responses to regional aerosol climate forcing in summer over East Asia}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4267-3},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chen2017JEnvMan,
abstract = {Highlights$\backslash$r$\backslash$n•$\backslash$r$\backslash$nThe normalized average annual runoff depth from urban land of U.S. was assessed.$\backslash$r$\backslash$n•$\backslash$r$\backslash$nUrban expansion and intensification serve as drivers altering surface runoff.$\backslash$r$\backslash$n•$\backslash$r$\backslash$nNational annual runoff volume increased 10{\%} from 2001 to 2011 due to urbanization.$\backslash$r$\backslash$n•$\backslash$r$\backslash$nPopulation change alone is inadequate to analyze the increase in urban development.$\backslash$r$\backslash$n•$\backslash$r$\backslash$nThe L-THIA Tabular Tool is capable of assessing urbanization impacts on runoff.},
annote = {Urbanisation tends to decrease permeability of the surface, leading to increased surface runoff},
author = {Chen, Jingqiu and Theller, Lawrence and Gitau, Margaret W. and Engel, Bernard A. and Harbor, Jonathan M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.11.017},
isbn = {0301-4797},
issn = {10958630},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
keywords = {Hydrologic impact,Hydrologic modeling,Hydrology,Population,Runoff,Urbanization},
month = {feb},
pages = {470--481},
publisher = {Elsevier {\{}BV{\}}},
title = {{Urbanization impacts on surface runoff of the contiguous United States}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016{\%}2Fj.jenvman.2016.11.017},
volume = {187},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Chen2019b,
abstract = {Multi-member ensembles of climate models are used to study the role of internal climate variability and its potential impact on climate change impact studies. The reliability of such ensembles with respect to representing the internal climate vari- ability is generally implicitly accepted. Using the latest version of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) data set as a baseline, this study verifies the reliability of multi-member ensembles in estimating the internal precipitation and temperature variability at the multi-decadal scale. To achieve this, multi-decadal variability cal- culated using climate model multi-member ensembles is first compared to that cal- culated using CRU data. The inter-member variability of a single climate model is then compared to the multi-decadal variability of CRU precipitation and tempera- ture. Three climate models, with the number of members ranging between 5 and 40, are used to investigate whether the reliability is dependent upon the number of members of a climate model. The results show that multi-member ensembles are capable of capturing the observed spatial pattern of multi-decadal variability for both precipitation and temperature at the global scale. However, multi-member ensembles perform better over regions with smaller variability. For the variables and timescale investigated, all three multi-member ensembles show similar perfor- mances, suggesting that a five-member ensemble may be sufficient to estimate the internal multi-decadal climate variability for the chosen variables. Overall, this study indicates that the multi-member ensemble of a climate model can be used to estimate the internal climate variability of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature at the multi-decadal and regional scales, if long historical records are not available.},
author = {Chen, Jie and Brissette, Fran{\c{c}}ois P.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5846},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {843--856},
title = {{Reliability of climate model multi-member ensembles in estimating internal precipitation and temperature variability at the multi-decadal scale}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5846},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chen2019a,
author = {Chen, Di and Dai, Aiguo},
doi = {10.1029/2018ms001536},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {aug},
number = {7},
pages = {2352--2374},
title = {{Precipitation Characteristics in the Community Atmosphere Model and Their Dependence on Model Physics and Resolution}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018MS001536},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chen2020c,
abstract = {Abstract Changes in global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation determine the local water resource, affecting two-thirds of global population. The future changes in GLM summer precipitation and the sources of projection uncertainty under four scenarios are investigated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The GLM summer precipitation is projected to increase by 1.76±1.57{\%} (2.54±2.22{\%}), 1.33±1.97{\%} (3.52±3.05{\%}), 0.96±2.04{\%} (3.51±4.97{\%}), 1.71±2.38{\%} (5.75±5.92{\%}) in the near-term (long-term) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The enhancement is caused by thermodynamic responses due to increased moisture, which is partly offset by dynamic responses due to weakened circulation. The uncertainty in GLM precipitation projection is the largest in SSP5-8.5 long-term projection. The uncertainty of sub-monsoon precipitation projections is larger than that in GLM precipitation. The uncertainty of monsoon precipitation projection arises from the circulation changes, which can be partly explained by model-dependent response to uniform sea surface temperature warming.},
author = {Chen, Ziming and Zhou, Tianjun and Zhang, Lixia and Chen, Xiaolong and Zhang, Wenxia and Jiang, Jie},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086902},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Global Inter-model uncertainty,Precipitation projection,Thermodynamic and dynamic effect},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {e2019GL086902},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes in CMIP6 Projections}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086902 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086902},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Chen2019c,
abstract = {Based on 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming experiments of Community Earth System Model, this study documents futurechanges in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and associated monsoon precipitation. The model reproducesreasonably well the climatology of East Asian summer rainfall. All ensemble means show an increase in EASM intensityand associated precipitation over most parts of the East Asian region in 1.5 °CBnever-exceed{\^{}}(1.5degNE), 1.5 °CBovershoot{\^{}}(1.5degOS), and 2.0 °C (2.0degNE) experiments. There is no significant difference in the future changes inEASM intensity, EASM precipitation, and its location among the three scenarios. A moisture budget analysis demonstratesthat the increased precipitation over East Asia in three scenarios should be ascribed to the changes in evaporation, verticalmotion, and humidity. The contributions of these three dominant terms increase sequentially under 1.5degNE, 1.5degOS,and 2degNE scenarios. However, the differences among the three scenarios are quite small in three dominant terms. OverEast Asia, the contributions of evaporation and vertical motion are generally larger than that of humidity to the domain-averaged EASM rainfall in each scenario.},
author = {Chen, Lin and Qu, Xia and Huang, Gang and Gong, Yuanfa},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2720-1},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {2187--2201},
title = {{Projections of East Asian summer monsoon under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming goals}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-018-2720-1},
volume = {137},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chen2020,
abstract = {Atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) is expected to increase under greenhouse gas–induced global warming, but a recent regional study also suggests enhanced convective inhibition (CIN) over land although its cause is not well understood. In this study, a global climate model is first evaluated by comparing its CAPE and CIN with reanalysis data, and then their future changes and the underlying causes are examined. The climate model reasonably captures the present-day CAPE and CIN patterns seen in the reanalysis, and projects increased CAPE almost everywhere and stronger CIN over most land under global warming. Over land, the cases or times with medium to strong CAPE or CIN would increase while cases with weak CAPE or CIN would decrease, leading to an overall strengthening in their mean values. These projected changes are confirmed by convection-permitting 4-km model simulations over the United States. The CAPE increase results mainly from increased low-level specific humidity, which leads to more latent heating and buoyancy for a lifted parcel above the level of free convection (LFC) and also a higher level of neutral buoyancy. The enhanced CIN over most land results mainly from reduced low-level relative humidity (RH), which leads to a higher lifting condensation level and a higher LFC and thus more negative buoyancy. Over tropical oceans, the near-surface RH increases slightly, leading to slight weakening of CIN. Over the subtropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, the impact of reduced low-level atmospheric lapse rates overshadows the effect of increased specific humidity, leading to decreased CAPE.},
author = {Chen, Jiao and Dai, Aiguo and Zhang, Yaocun and Rasmussen, Kristen L.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-19-0461.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Buoyancy,CAPE,Climate models,Humidity,Temperature,Thermodynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {6},
pages = {2025--2050},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Changes in Convective Available Potential Energy and Convective Inhibition under Global Warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0461.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Chen2018GRL,
abstract = {Many climate models from the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) predictdecreasesin precipitationinCentral America and northern South Americaby the year 2100 for the RepresentativeConcentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Here we show that the CMIP5 models able to more accurately simulate warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the present climate (strong AMOC models) are more likely to project a larger precipitation decrease. Drought amplification from the slowdown ofAMOC is more significant duringthe wet season inthe northern hemisphere, with a SST‐constrainedmodel estimate yielding a 73{\%} larger decrease in precipitation (‐1.11 mm/day) than the multi‐model mean (‐0.64 mm/day). Since most Earth system models underestimate contemporary SSTs in the North Atlantic,the use of the multi‐model mean for impact analysis likely underestimates drought stress and the vulnerability of neotropical forests to increasing drought from climate change.},
author = {Chen, Y. and Langenbrunner, B. and Randerson, J. T.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL077953},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {AMOC,CMIP5,emergent constraint,teleconnection},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {9226--9235},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Future Drying in Central America and Northern South America Linked With Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL077953 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL077953},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chen2018,
author = {Chen, Fengrui and Gao, Yongqi},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4080-z},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {PERSIANN,Precipitation trends,Satellite-gauge precipitation data,TRMM},
month = {nov},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3311--3331},
title = {{Evaluation of precipitation trends from high-resolution satellite precipitation products over Mainland China}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4080-z},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chen2014c,
abstract = {Satellite gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provides quantitative measures of terrestrial water storage (TWS) change at large spatial scales. Combining GRACE-observed TWS changes and model estimates of water storage changes in soil and snow at the surface offers a means for measuring groundwater storage change. In this study, we re-assess long-term groundwater storage variation in the Northwest India (NWI) region using an extended record of GRACE time-variable gravity measurements, and a fully unconstrained global forward modeling method. Our new assessments based on the GRACE release-5 (RL05) gravity solutions indicate that during the 10year period January 2003 to December 2012, the NWI groundwater depletion remains pronounced, especially during the first 5years (01/2003–12/2007). The newly estimated depletion rates are {\~{}}20.4±7.1 Gigatonne (Gt)/yr averaged over the 10year period, and 29.4±8.4 Gt/yr during the first 5years. The yearly groundwater storage changes in the NWI region are strongly correlated with yearly precipitation anomalies. In 2009, the driest season of the decade, the groundwater depletion reaches nearly 80 Gt, while in the two relatively wet seasons, 2008 and 2011, the groundwater storages even see net increases of about 24 and 35 Gt, respectively. The estimated mean groundwater depletion rates for the first 5years are significantly higher than previous assessments. The larger depletion rates may reflect the benefits from improved data quality of GRACE RL05 gravity solutions, and improved data processing method, which can more effectively reduce leakage error in GRACE estimates. Our analysis indicates that the neighboring Punjab Province of Pakistan (especially Northern Punjab) apparently also experiences significant groundwater depletion during the same period, which has partly contributed to the new regional groundwater depletion estimates.},
author = {Chen, Jianli and Li, Jin and Zhang, Zizhan and Ni, Shengnan},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.02.007},
issn = {0921-8181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {GRACE,Northwest India,depletion,groundwater,satellite gravity},
pages = {130--138},
title = {{Long-term groundwater variations in Northwest India from satellite gravity measurements}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818114000526},
volume = {116},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Chen2020f,
abstract = {Changes in hydrological cycle under 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming is highly concerned on the post-Paris Agreement agenda. In particular, the annual range of precipitation, i.e. the difference between the wet and dry seasons, is important to society and ecosystem. This study examines the changes of precipitation annual range using the Community Earth System Model low-warming (CESM-LW) experiment, designed to assess climate change at stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels. To reflect the exact annual range in different regions, wet and dry seasons are defined for each grid-point and year. Based on this metric, the precipitation annual range would increase by 3.90{\%} (5.27{\%}) under 1.5°C (2.0°C) warming. The additional 0.5°C of warming would increase by 1.37{\%}. The enhancement is seen globally, except in some regions around the subtropics. Under the additional 0.5°C of warming, a significant increase in the annual range occurs over 15{\%} (22{\%}) of the ocean (land) region. The increase is associated with the enhanced precipitation during wet season. Moisture budget analysis shows the enhancement in annual range is dominated by vertical moisture advection, which includes thermodynamic (TH, moisture) and climate dynamic (CD, circulation changes) terms. The TH term plays a dominant role, while the CD term partly offsets the effects of the TH term. The TH term dominates over most regions except for part of the tropical ocean and some of the land region, where the CD term are also remarkable. Thus, the enhancement of the annual range of precipitation is mainly caused by the increase of moisture.},
author = {Chen, Ziming and Zhou, Tianjun and Zhang, Wenxia and Li, Puxi and Zhao, Siyao},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001435},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {e2019EF001435},
title = {{Projected Changes in the Annual Range of Precipitation Under Stabilized 1.5°C and 2.0°C Warming Futures}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019EF001435},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Chen2020e,
abstract = {We have investigated changes of western North Pacific land-falling tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics due to warmer climate conditions, using the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) technique. Historical simulations of three intense TCs making landfall in Pearl River Delta (PRD) were first conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The same cases were then re-simulated by superimposing near- (2015–2039) and far- (2075–2099) future temperature and humidity changes onto the background climate; these changes were derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model projections according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Peak intensities of TCs (maximum surface wind in their lifetimes) are expected to increase by {\~{}} (3) 10{\%} in the (near) far future. Further experiments indicate that surface warming alone acts to intensify TCs by enhancing sea surface heat flux, while warmer atmosphere acts in the opposite way by increasing the stability. In the far future, associated storm surges are also estimated to increase by about 8.5{\%}, computed by the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. Combined with sea level rise and estimated land vertical displacement, TC-induced storm tide affecting PRD will increase by {\~{}}1 m in the future 2075–2099 period.},
author = {Chen, Jilong and Wang, Ziqian and Tam, Chi-Yung and Lau, Ngar-Cheung and Lau, Dick-Shum Dickson and Mok, Hing-Yim},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-58824-8},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
title = {{Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-58824-8},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Chen,
address = {Boston MA},
author = {Chen, Ruyan and Simpson, Isla R and Deser, Clara and Wang, Bin},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1004.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {23},
pages = {9985--10002},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Model Biases in the Simulation of the Springtime North Pacific ENSO Teleconnection}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/23/jcliD191004.xml},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@misc{Chen2020d,
abstract = {Land use and climate change are recognized as two major drivers affecting surface streamflow. On the Chinese Loess Plateau, implementation of several land restoration projects has changed land cover in recent decades. The main objectives of this study were to understand how streamflow evolved on the Loess Plateau and how land use and climate change have contributed to this change. In this study, we selected 22 hydrological modelling studies covering 25 different watersheds in the Loess Plateau and we performed a meta-analysis by using the hydrological and meteorological data collected from these studies. The results indicate a streamflow decrease in 41 of a total of 52 case studies whereas precipitation change was found to be non-significant in the majority of the cases. Streamflow reduction was estimated to be −0.46 mm/year by meta-analysis across all case studies. Land use change was estimated to have 63.52{\%} impact on the streamflow reduction whereas climate change accounted for 36.48{\%} of the impact. Using meta-regression, an increasing soil and water conservation area was found to be positively correlated to streamflow reduction. We conclude that in the Chinese Loess Plateau, streamflow shows a decreasing trend and land restoration is the major cause of this reduction. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first study that estimates streamflow dynamics across many watersheds on the entire Loess Plateau.},
author = {Chen, Hao and Fleskens, Luuk and Baartman, Jantiene and Wang, Fei and Moolenaar, Simon and Ritsema, Coen},
booktitle = {Science of the Total Environment},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134989},
issn = {18791026},
keywords = {Climate change,Land restoration,Meta-regression,Streamflow reduction},
month = {feb},
pages = {134989},
pmid = {31734503},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Impacts of land use change and climatic effects on streamflow in the Chinese Loess Plateau: A meta-analysis}},
volume = {703},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cheng2016a,
abstract = {Oxygen isotope records from Chinese caves characterize changes in both the Asian monsoon and global climate. Here, using our new speleothem data, we extend the Chinese record to cover the full uranium/thorium dating range, that is, the past 640,000 years. The record's length and temporal precision allow us to test the idea that insolation changes caused by the Earth's precession drove the terminations of each of the last seven ice ages as well as the millennia-long intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall associated with each of the terminations. On the basis of our record's timing, the terminations are separated by four or five precession cycles, supporting the idea that the ‘100,000-year' ice age cycle is an average of discrete numbers of precession cycles. Furthermore, the suborbital component of monsoon rainfall variability exhibits power in both the precession and obliquity bands, and is nearly in anti-phase with summer boreal insolation. These observations indicate that insolation, in part, sets the pace of the occurrence of millennial-scale events, including those associated with terminations and ‘unfinished terminations'.},
author = {Cheng, Hai and Edwards, R. Lawrence and Sinha, Ashish and Sp{\"{o}}tl, Christoph and Yi, Liang and Chen, Shitao and Kelly, Megan and Kathayat, Gayatri and Wang, Xianfeng and Li, Xianglei and Kong, Xinggong and Wang, Yongjin and Ning, Youfeng and Zhang, Haiwei},
doi = {10.1038/nature18591},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jun},
number = {7609},
pages = {640--646},
pmid = {27357793},
title = {{The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature18591},
volume = {534},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Cheng2012,
author = {Cheng, Hai and Sinha, Ashish and Wang, Xianfeng and Cruz, Francisco W. and Edwards, R. Lawrence},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1363-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5},
pages = {1045--1062},
title = {{The Global Paleomonsoon as seen through speleothem records from Asia and the Americas}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1363-7},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Cheng2017a,
abstract = {Quantifying the responses of the coupled carbon and water cycles to current global warming and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is crucial for predicting and adapting to climate changes. Here we show that terrestrial carbon uptake (i.e. gross primary production) increased significantly from 1982 to 2011 using a combination of ground-based and remotely sensed land and atmospheric observations. Importantly, we find that the terrestrial carbon uptake increase is not accompanied by a proportional increase in water use (i.e. evapotranspiration) but is largely (about 90{\%}) driven by increased carbon uptake per unit of water use, i.e. water use efficiency. The increased water use efficiency is positively related to rising CO2 concentration and increased canopy leaf area index, and negatively influenced by increased vapour pressure deficits. Our findings suggest that rising atmospheric CO2 concentration has caused a shift in terrestrial water economics of carbon uptake.},
author = {Cheng, Lei and Zhang, Lu and Wang, Ying-Ping and Canadell, Josep G. and Chiew, Francis H. S. and Beringer, Jason and Li, Longhui and Miralles, Diego G. and Piao, Shilong and Zhang, Yongqiang},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-00114-5},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {110},
pmid = {28740122},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Recent increases in terrestrial carbon uptake at little cost to the water cycle}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00114-5 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00114-5},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Chernokulsky2019,
abstract = {Long-term changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia (NE) over the last five decades are estimated. Different types of precipitation are separated according to their genesis using routine meteorological observations of precipitation, weather conditions, and morphological cloud types for the period 1966–2016. From an initial 538 stations, the main analysis is performed for 326 stations that have no gaps and meet criteria regarding the artificial discontinuity absence in the data. A moderate increase in total precipitation over the analyzed period is accompanied by a relatively strong growth of convective precipitation and a concurrent decrease in stratiform precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation totals, precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation sums depict major changes in summer, while the relative contribution of the two precipitation types to the total precipitation (including the contribution of heavy rain events) show the strongest trends in transition seasons. The contribution of heavy convective showers to the total precipitation increases with the statistically significant trend of 1{\%}–2{\%} per decade in vast NE regions, reaching 5{\%} per decade at a number of stations. The largest increase is found over the southern Far East region, mostly because of positive changes in convective precipitation intensity with a linear trend of more than 1 mm/day/decade, implying a 13.8{\%} increase per 1 °C warming. In general, stratiform precipitation decreases over the majority of NE regions in all seasons except for winter. This decrease happens at slower rates in comparison to the convective precipitation changes. The overall changes in the character of precipitation over the majority of NE regions are characterized by a redistribution of precipitation types toward more heavy showers.},
author = {Chernokulsky, Alexander and Kozlov, Fedor and Zolina, Olga and Bulygina, Olga and Mokhov, Igor I. and Semenov, Vladimir A.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aafb82},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {convective showers extremes types,regional climate changes,stratiform surface observation},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {45001},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades}},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Cheung2017,
author = {Cheung, Anson H. and Mann, Michael E. and Steinman, Byron A. and Frankcombe, Leela M. and England, Matthew H. and Miller, Sonya K.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0712.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4763--4776},
title = {{Comparison of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability in CMIP5 Models and Observations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0712.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cheung2018,
author = {Cheung, Richard Ching Wa and Yasuhara, Moriaki and Mamo, Briony and Katsuki, Kota and Seto, Koji and Takata, Hiroyuki and Yang, Dong-Yoon and Nakanishi, Toshimichi and Yamada, Katsura and Iwatani, Hokuto},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL077978},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {7711--7718},
title = {{Decadal- to Centennial-Scale East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability Over the Past Millennium: An Oceanic Perspective}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL077978},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chevuturi2018,
author = {Chevuturi, Amulya and Klingaman, Nicholas P and Turner, Andrew G and Hannah, Shaun},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000734},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {+1.5degree signC Warming,+2.0degree signC Warming,10.1002/2017EF000734 and Climate Change,Asian-Australian Monsoon Region,Precipitation,Temperature},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {339--358},
title = {{Projected Changes in the Asian–Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000734},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chiang2012,
abstract = {Recent studies suggest the existence of a global atmospheric teleconnection of extratropical cooling to the tropical rainfall climate, mediated through the development of a thermal contrast between the hemispheres—an interhemispheric thermal gradient. This teleconnection has been largely motivated by studies that show a global synchronization of rapid climate change during abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period, in addition to attribution studies of twentieth-century Sahel drought and studies that examined the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols. This research has led to interesting developments in atmospheric dynamics of the underlying mechanisms and in applications toward understanding past and present tropical climate change. The emerging teleconnection hypothesis promises to offer new insights into understanding future patterns of tropical rainfall changes due to interhemispheric thermal gradients from greenhouse warming, aerosols, and land-use change.},
author = {Chiang, John C.H. and Friedman, Andrew R.},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105545},
issn = {0084-6597},
journal = {Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {383--412},
title = {{Extratropical Cooling, Interhemispheric Thermal Gradients, and Tropical Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105545},
volume = {40},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Chiang2005,
abstract = {We investigate the causes for a strong high latitude imposed ice (land or sea) influence on the marine Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Community Climate Model version 3 coupled to a 50-m slab ocean. The marine ITCZ in all the ocean basins shift meridionally away from the hemisphere with an imposed added ice cover, altering the global Hadley circulation with an increased tropical subsidence in the hemisphere with imposed ice and uplift in the other. The effect appears to be independent of the longitudinal position of imposed ice. The anomalous ice induces a rapid cooling and drying of the air and surface over the entire high- and midlatitudes; subsequent progression of cold anomalies occurs in the Pacific and Atlantic northeasterly trade regions, where a wind-evaporation- sea surface temperature (SST) feedback initiates pro- gression of a cold SST ‘front' towards the ITCZ lati- tudes. Once the cooler SST reaches the ITCZ latitude, the ITCZ shifts southwards, aided by positive feedbacks associated with the displacement. The ITCZ displace- ment transports moisture away from the colder and drier hemisphere into the other hemisphere, resulting in a pronounced hemispheric asymmetric response in anomalous specific humidity; we speculate that the atmospheric humidity plays a central role in the hemi- spheric asymmetric nature of the climate response to high latitude ice cover anomalies. From an energy bal- ance viewpoint, the increased outgoing radiative flux at the latitudes of the imposed ice is compensated by an increased radiative energy flux at the tropical latitudes occupied by the displaced ITCZ, and subsequently transported by the altered Hadley and eddy circulations to the imposed ice latitudes. The situation investigated here may be applicable to past climates like the Last Glacial Maximum where hemispheric asymmetric changes to ice cover occurred. Major caveats to the conclusions drawn include omission of interactive sea ice physics and ocean dynamical feedback and sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameterizations across different models.},
author = {Chiang, John C. H. and Bitz, Cecilia M.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-005-0040-5},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {477--496},
title = {{Influence of high latitude ice cover on the marine Intertropical Convergence Zone}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-005-0040-5},
volume = {25},
year = {2005}
}
@article{ccw13,
abstract = {Multidecadal and longer changes to the Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature gradient (AITG) in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) historical simulations are investigated. Observations show a secular trend to this gradient over most of the twentieth century, with the southern lobe warming faster relative to its northern counterpart. A previous study of phase 3 of the CMIP (CMIP3) suggests that this trend is partially forced by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. This analysis collectively confirms the partially forced trend for the CMIP5 and by anthropogenic aerosols. Like the CMIP3, the CMIP5 also simulates a reversal in the AITG trend in the late 1970s, which was attributed to a leveling off of the anthropogenic aerosol influence and increased influence of greenhouse gases in the late twentieth century. Two (of 25) CMIP5 models, however, systematically simulate a twentieth-century trend opposite to observed, leading to some uncertainty regarding the forced nature of the AITG trend. The observed AITG also exhibits a pronounced multidecadal modulation on top of the trend, associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Motivated by a recent suggestion that the AMO is a forced response to aerosols, the causes of this multidecadal behavior were also examined. A few of the CMIP5 models analyzed do produce multidecadal AITG variations that are correlated to the observed AMO-like variation, but only one, the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 (HadGEM2), systematically simulates AMO-like behavior with both the requisite amplitude and phase. The CMIP5 simulations thus point to a robust aerosol influence on the historical AITG trend but not to the AMO-like multidecadal behavior.},
author = {Chiang, John C. H. and Chang, C.-Y. and Wehner, M. F.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00487.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {8628--8640},
title = {{Long-Term Behavior of the Atlantic Interhemispheric SST Gradient in the CMIP5 Historical Simulations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00487.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Choobari2014,
abstract = {Mineral dust aerosols, the tiny soil particles suspended in the atmosphere, have a key role in the atmospheric radiation budget and hydrological cycle through their radiative and cloud condensation nucleus effects. Current understanding of spatial and temporal variations of mineral dust, as well as its impacts on the climate system and cloud properties is outlined. Mineral dust aerosols are blown into the atmosphere mainly from arid and semi-arid regions where annual rainfall is extremely low and substantial amounts of alluvial sediment have been accumulated over long periods. They are subject to long-range transport of an intercontinental scale, including North African dust plumes over the Atlantic Ocean, summer dust plumes from the Arabian Peninsula over the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean and spring dust plumes from East Asia over the Pacific Ocean. Mineral dust aerosols influence the climate system and cloud microphysics in multiple ways. They disturb the climate system directly by scattering and partly absorbing shortwave and longwave radiation, semi-directly by changing the atmospheric cloud cover through evaporation of cloud droplets (i.e. the cloud burning effect), and indirectly by acting as cloud and ice condensation nuclei, which changes the optical properties of clouds (i.e. the first indirect effect), and may decrease or increase precipitation formation (i.e. the second indirect effect). Radiative forcing by mineral dust is associated with changes in atmospheric dynamics that may change the vertical profile of temperature and wind speed, through which a feedback effect on dust emission can be established. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier B.V.},
author = {Choobari, O. Alizadeh and Zawar-Reza, P. and Sturman, A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.11.007},
isbn = {01698095},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Climate system,Cloud microphysics,Indirect effect,Mineral dust aerosols,Radiative forcing,Semi-directly},
month = {mar},
pages = {152--165},
title = {{The global distribution of mineral dust and its impacts on the climate system: A review}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809513003281},
volume = {138},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Chou2012a,
abstract = {Global warming mechanisms that cause changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation in the tropics are examined in climate model simulations. Under global warming, tropical precipitation tends to be more frequent and intense for heavy precipitation but becomes less frequent and weaker for light precipitation. Changes in precipitation frequency and intensity are both controlled by thermodynamic and dynamic components. The thermodynamic component is induced by changes in atmospheric water vapor, while the dynamic component is associated with changes in vertical motion. A set of equations is derived to estimate both thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation, especially for heavy precipitation. In the thermodynamic contribution, increased water vapor reduces the magnitude of the required vertical motion to generate the same strength of precipitation, so precipitation frequency increases. Increased water vapor also intensifies precipitation due to the enhancement of water vapor availability in the atmosphere. In the dynamic contribution, the more stable atmosphere tends to reduce the frequency and intensity of precipitation, except for the heaviest precipitation. The dynamic component strengthens the heaviest precipitation in most climate model simulations, possibly due to a positive convective feedback.},
author = {Chou, Chia and Chen, Chao-An and Tan, Pei-Hua and Chen, Kuan Ting},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00239.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3291--3306},
title = {{Mechanisms for Global Warming Impacts on Precipitation Frequency and Intensity}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00239.1},
volume = {25},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Chou_2013,
abstract = {Global temperatures have risen over the past few decades. The water vapour content of the atmosphere has increased as a result, strengthening the global hydrological cycle. This, in turn, has led to wet regions getting wetter, and dry regions drier. Climate model simulations suggest that a similar intensification of existing patterns may also apply to the seasonal cycle of rainfall. Here, we analyse regional and global trends in seasonal precipitation extremes over the past three decades, using a number of global and land-alone observational data sets. We show that globally the annual range of precipitation has increased, largely because wet seasons have become wetter. Although the magnitude of the shift is uncertain, largely owing to limitations inherent in the data sets used, the sign of the tendency is robust. On a regional scale, the tendency for wet seasons to get wetter occurs over climatologically rainier regions. Similarly, the tendency for dry season to get drier is seen in drier regions. Even if the total amount of annual rainfall does not change significantly, the enhancement in the seasonal precipitation cycle could have marked consequences for the frequency of droughts and floods.},
author = {Chou, Chia and Chiang, John C. H. and Lan, Chia-Wei and Chung, Chia-Hui and Liao, Yi-Chun and Lee, Chia-Jung},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1744},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {263--267},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Increase in the range between wet and dry season precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fngeo1744 http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1744},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Chou2014,
abstract = {Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.},
author = {Chou, Sin Chan and Lyra, Andr{\'{e}} and Mour{\~{a}}o, Caroline and Dereczynski, Claudine and Pilotto, Isabel and Gomes, Jorge and Bustamante, Josiane and Tavares, Priscila and Silva, Adan and Rodrigues, Daniela and Campos, Diego and Chagas, Diego and Sueiro, Gustavo and Siqueira, Gracielle and Marengo, Jos{\'{e}}},
doi = {10.4236/ajcc.2014.35043},
issn = {2167-9495},
journal = {American Journal of Climate Change},
number = {5},
pages = {512--527},
title = {{Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling Scenarios}},
url = {http://www.scirp.org/journal/doi.aspx?DOI=10.4236/ajcc.2014.35043},
volume = {3},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Choudhury2018a,
abstract = {Midtropospheric cyclones (MTCs) are a distinct class of synoptic disturbances, characterized by quasi-stationary cyclonic circulation in midtropospheric levels, which often produce heavy rainfall and floods over western India during the summer monsoon. This study presents a composite and diagnostic process study of long-lived ({\textgreater} 5 days) midtropospheric cyclonic circulation events identified by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Reanalysis data confirm earlier studies in revealing that the MTC composite has its strongest circulation in the midtroposphere. Lagged composites show that these events co-occur with broader-scale monsoon evolution, including larger synoptic-scale low pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and east coast, and the active phase of regional-scale poleward-propagating intraseasonal rain belts, with associated drying ahead (north) of the convectively active area. Diabatic heating composites, in particular the TRMM latent heating and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)-derived radiative cooling in the dry inland areas of southwest Asia north of the rain belt, are used to drive a nonlinear multilayer dynamical model in a forced-damped reconstruction of the global circulation. Results show that the midlevel circulation is largely attributable to top-heavy latent heating, indicative of the prevalence of stratiform-type precipitation in mesoscale convective systems in these moist, active larger-scale settings. Both the west coast and BoB latent heating are important, while the radiative cooling over southwest Asia plays a modest role in sharpening some of the simulated features. A conceptual model encapsulates the paradigm based on this composite and diagnostic modeling, a diabatic update of early theoretical studies that emphasized hydrodynamic flow instabilities.},
author = {Choudhury, Ayantika Dey and Krishnan, R. and Ramarao, M. V.S. and Vellore, R. and Singh, M. and Mapes, B.},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-17-0356.1},
issn = {15200469},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
keywords = {Dynamics,Heating,Intraseasonal variability,Monsoons,Precipitation,Stratiform clouds},
number = {9},
pages = {2931--2954},
title = {{A Phenomenological Paradigm for Midtropospheric Cyclogenesis in the Indian Summer Monsoon}},
volume = {75},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{IPCCClimatePhenomenaChristensen2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg and {Krishna Kumar}, K and Aldrian, Edvin and An, S.-I. Soon Il and Cavalcanti, I F A and de Castro, Manuel and Dong, Wenjie and Goswami, Prashant and Hall, Alex and Kanyanga, Joseph Katongo and Kitoh, Akio and Kossin, James and Lau, N.-C. Ngar Cheung and Renwick, James and Stephenson, David B. and Xie, S.-P. Shang Ping and Zhou, Tianjun and Kanikicharla, Krishna Kumar and Aldrian, Edvin and An, S.-I. Soon Il and {Albuquerque Cavalcanti}, Iracema Fonseca and de Castro, Manuel and Dong, Wenjie and Goswami, Prashant and Hall, Alex and Kanyanga, Joseph Katongo and Kitoh, Akio and Kossin, James and Lau, N.-C. Ngar Cheung and Renwick, James and Stephenson, David B. and Xie, S.-P. Shang Ping and Zhou, Tianjun and Abraham, Libu and Ambrizzi, T{\'{e}}rcio and Anderson, Bruce and Arakawa, Osamu and Arritt, Raymond and Baldwin, Mark and Barlow, Mathew and Barriopedro, David and Biasutti, Michela and Biner, S{\'{e}}bastien and Bromwich, David and Brown, Josephine and Cai, Wenju and Carvalho, Leila V. and Chang, Ping and Chen, Xiaolong and Choi, Jung and Christensen, Ole B{\o}ssing and Deser, Clara and Emanuel, Kerry and Endo, Hirokazu and Enfield, David B. and Evan, Amato and Giannini, Alessandra and Gillett, Nathan and Hariharasubramanian, Annamalai and Huang, Ping and Jones, Julie and Karumuri, Ashok and Katzfey, Jack and Kjellstr{\"{o}}m, Erik and Knight, Jeff and Knutson, Thomas and Kulkarni, Ashwini and Kundeti, Koteswara Rao and Lau, William K. and Lenderink, Geert and Lennard, Chris and Leung, Lai yung Ruby and Lin, Renping and Losada, Teresa and Mackellar, Neil C. and Maga{\~{n}}a, Victor and Marshall, Gareth and Mearns, Linda and Meehl, Gerald and Men{\'{e}}ndez, Claudio and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Nath, Mary Jo and Neelin, J. David and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Olesen, Martin and Polcher, Jan and Qian, Yun and Ray, Suchanda and Reich, Katharine Davis and de Fonseca, Bel{\'{e}}n Rodriguez and Ruti, Paolo and Screen, James and Sedl{\'{a}}{\v{c}}ek, Jan and Solman, Silvina and Stendel, Martin and Stevenson, Samantha and Takayabu, Izuru and Turner, John and Ummenhofer, Caroline and Walsh, Kevin and Wang, Bin and Wang, Chunzai and Watterson, Ian and Widlansky, Matthew and Wittenberg, Andrew and Woollings, Tim and Yeh, Sang Wook and Zhang, Chidong and Zhang, Lixia and Zheng, Xiaotong and Zou, Liwei and {Krishna Kumar}, K and Aldrian, Edvin and An, S.-I. Soon Il and Cavalcanti, I F A and de Castro, Manuel and Dong, Wenjie and Goswami, Prashant and Hall, Alex and Kanyanga, Joseph Katongo and Kitoh, Akio and Kossin, James and Lau, N.-C. Ngar Cheung and Renwick, James and Stephenson, David B. and Xie, S.-P. Shang Ping and Zhou, Tianjun},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {14},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {1217--1308},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change}},
type = {Book Section},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Chua2020,
abstract = {Abstract Aerosols are postulated to alter moist convection by increasing cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). Cloud-resolving model simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium show that higher Nd leads to stronger convective mass flux, seemingly in line with a hypothesis that links the convective invigoration to delayed rain formation allowing more cloud liquid condensate to be frozen. Yet, the invigoration is also present in an alternative model configuration with warm-rain microphysics only, suggesting that ice microphysics is not central to the phenomenon. The key dynamical mechanism lies in the different vertical distributions of the increases in water vapor condensation and in cloud liquid re-evaporation, causing a dipole pattern favoring convection. This is further supported by a pair of mechanism-denial experiments in which an imposed weakening of cloud liquid re-evaporation tends to mute invigoration.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089134},
author = {Chua, Xin Rong and Ming, Yi},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL089134},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {e2020GL089134},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Convective Invigoration Traced to Warm‐Rain Microphysics}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089134 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL089134},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Chung2017,
abstract = {The contrasting rainfall between the wet tropics and the dry subtropics largely determines the climate of the tropical zones. A southward shift of these rain belts has been observed throughout the latter half of the twentieth century, with profound societal consequences. Although such large-scale shifts in rainfall have been linked to interhemispheric temperature gradients from anthropogenic aerosols, a complete understanding of this mechanism has been hindered by the lack of explicit information on aerosol radiative effects. Here we quantify the relative contributions of radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols to the interhemispheric asymmetry in temperature and precipitation change for climate change simulations. We show that in model simulations the vast majority of the precipitation shift does not result from aerosols directly through their absorption and scattering of radiation, but rather indirectly through their modification of cloud radiative properties. Models with larger cloud responses to aerosol forcing are found to better reproduce the observed interhemispheric temperature changes and tropical rain belt shifts over the twentieth century, suggesting that aerosol-cloud interactions will play a key role in determining future interhemispheric shifts in climate.},
annote = {indirect aerosol effects dominate inter-hemispheric climate shifts including Sahel drought in the 1980s},
author = {Chung, Eui-Seok and Soden, Brian J.},
doi = {10.1038/NGEO2988},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {jul},
number = {8},
pages = {566--571},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Hemispheric climate shifts driven by anthropogenic aerosol–cloud interactions}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2988},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Chung2014a,
abstract = {Precipitation changes over the Indo-Pacific during El Ni{\~{n}}o events are studied using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Linear increases in the amplitude of the El Ni{\~{n}}o SST anomaly pattern trigger nonlinear changes in precipitation amounts, resulting in shifts in the location and orientation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). In particular, the maximum precipitation anomaly along the ITCZ and SPCZ shifts eastwards, the ITCZ shifts south towards the equator, and the SPCZ becomes more zonal. Precipitation in the equatorial Pacific also increases nonlinearly. The effect of increasing CO2 levels and warming SSTs is also investigated. Global warming generally enhances the tropical Pacific precipitation response to El Ni{\~{n}}o. The precipitation response to El Ni{\~{n}}o is found to be dominated by changes in the atmospheric mean circulation dynamics, whereas the response to global warming is a balance between dynamic and thermodynamic changes. While the dependence of projected climate change impacts on seasonal variability is well-established, this study reveals that the impact of global warming on Pacific precipitation also depends strongly on the magnitude of the El Ni{\~{n}}o event. The magnitude and structure of the precipitation changes are also sensitive to the spatial structure of the global warming SST pattern. {\textcopyright} 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.},
author = {Chung, Christine T.Y. and Power, Scott B. and Arblaster, Julie M. and Rashid, Harun A. and Roff, Gregory L.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1892-8},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate variability,El-Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation,Global warming},
number = {7-8},
pages = {1837--1856},
title = {{Nonlinear precipitation response to El Ni{\~{n}}o and global warming in the Indo-Pacific}},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Chung2019NatureClim,
abstract = {A strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) over recent decades triggered an intense debate on the validity of model-projected weakening of the PWC in response to anthropogenic warming. However, limitations of in situ observations and reanalysis datasets have hindered an unambiguous attribution of PWC changes to either natural or anthropogenic causes. Here, by conducting a comprehensive analysis based on multiple independent observational records, including satellite observations along with a large ensemble of model simulations, we objectively determine the relative contributions of internal variability and anthropogenic warming to the emergence of long-term PWC trends. Our analysis shows that the satellite-observed changes differ considerably from the model ensemble-mean changes, but they also indicate substantially weaker strengthening than implied by the reanalyses. Furthermore, some ensemble members are found to reproduce the observed changes in the tropical Pacific. These findings clearly reveal a dominant role of internal variability on the recent strengthening of the PWC.},
author = {Chung, Eui-Seok and Timmermann, Axel and Soden, Brian J. and Ha, Kyung-Ja and Shi, Lei and John, Viju O.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0446-4},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {405--412},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media {\{}LLC{\}}},
title = {{Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0446-4},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chung2014,
abstract = {Water vapor in the upper troposphere strongly regulates the strength of water-vapor feedback, which is the primary process for amplifying the response of the climate system to external radiative forcings. Monitoring changes in upper-tropospheric water vapor and scrutinizing the causes of such changes are therefore of great importance for establishing the credibility of model projections of past and future climates. Here, we use coupled ocean–atmosphere model simulations under different climate-forcing scenarios to inves-tigate satellite-observed changes in global-mean upper-tropospheric water vapor. Our analysis demonstrates that the upper-tropospheric moistening observed over the period 1979–2005 cannot be explained by natural causes and results principally from an anthropogenic warming of the climate. By attributing the observed increase di-rectly to human activities, this study verifies the presence of the largest known feedback mechanism for amplifying anthropo-genic climate change. detection | attribution | long-term monitoring B ecause water vapor is the principal greenhouse gas, varia-tions in its concentration strongly influence the climate's re-sponse to both anthropogenic and natural forcings (1). Changes in the amount of water vapor in the upper troposphere play a particularly important role because the trapping of outgoing terrestrial radiation is proportional to the logarithm of water-vapor concentration (1, 2), and climate models predict enhanced moistening in the upper troposphere compared with the boundary layer (3). Although short-term fluctuations of upper-tropospheric water vapor are consistent among reanalysis datasets, decadal variations show substantial discrepancies even in sign (4, 5). Hence, long-term monitoring of upper-tropospheric water-vapor changes, and understanding causes responsible for such changes are essential for enhancing confidence in the prediction of future climate change (4, 6). Changes in upper-tropospheric water vapor have been exam-ined based on satellite-observed radiances of 6.7-$\mu$m water-vapor channels (3, 7, 8), which are closely related to the layer–mean relative humidity in the upper troposphere (9). Decadal trends in upper-tropospheric relative humidity exhibits distinct regional patterns associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation, but the decadal trends over larger domains are small due to opposing changes at regional scales (8). Analyzing the global-scale changes in 6.7-$\mu$m water-vapor radiances reveals little change over the past three decades. However, when the 6.7-$\mu$m radiances are examined relative to microwave radiance emissions from oxygen, a distinct radiative signature of upper-tropospheric moistening can be revealed (3). Although the presence of a moistening trend has been detected in the satellite record, the cause of this moistening has not been determined. Thus, it remains unclear whether the observed moistening could result from natural fluctuations in the climate system, or whether human activities have significantly contrib-uted to the trend. Because climate feedbacks can behave dif-ferently in response to natural climate variations compared with anthropogenic warming (10), fully validating the presence and strength of this feedback ultimately requires the detection of a change in upper-tropospheric water vapor that is directly at-tributable to human activities. Given the importance of upper-tropospheric water vapor, a direct verification of its feedback is critical to establishing the credibility of model projections of anthropogenic climate change. A new set of coordinated climate change experiments have been conducted for the fifth phase of the Coupled Model In-tercomparison Project (CMIP5; ref. 11). One of the climate change scenarios included in the CMIP5 is a historical experi-ment in which coupled ocean–atmosphere models are integrated with historical changes in forcing agents over the period 1850– 2005. Climate variability produced from the historical experi-ment can then be analyzed in more detail in combination with two related experiments: one integrated with only anthropogenic forcings from well-mixed greenhouse gases, and the other in-tegrated with only natural forcings from volcanoes and changes in solar activity. These two experiments can help identify the causes for recent changes in climate, provided the historical ex-periment with all forcings is capable of reproducing the observed trends. In this study, we use the historical climate change experi-ments from CMIP5 to demonstrate that the satellite-observed changes in upper-tropospheric water vapor are inconsistent with naturally forced variability and can only be explained by anthropogenic forcing.},
author = {Chung, Eui-Seok and Soden, Brian and Sohn, B. J. and Shi, Lei},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1409659111},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Attribution,Detection,Long-term monitoring},
number = {32},
pages = {11636--11641},
title = {{Upper-tropospheric moistening in response to anthropogenic warming}},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Ciasto2016,
abstract = {This study investigates the sensitivity of the North Atlantic storm track to future changes in local and global sea surface temperature (SST) and highlights the role of SST changes remote to the North Atlantic. Results are based on three related coupled climate models: the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) [CESM1(CAM5)], and the Norwegian Earth System Model, version 1 (intermediate resolution) (NorESM1-M). Analysis reveals noticeable intermodel differences in projected storm-track changes from the coupled simulations [i.e., the difference in 200-hPa eddy activity between the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and historical scenarios]. In the CCSM4 coupled simulations, the North Atlantic storm track undergoes a poleward shift and eastward extension. In CESM1(CAM5), the storm-track change is dominated by an intensification and eastward extension. In NorESM1-M, the storm-track change is characterized by a weaker intensification and slight eastward extension. Atmospheric experiments driven only by projected local (North Atlantic) SST changes from the coupled models fail to reproduce the magnitude and structure of the projected changes in eddy activity aloft and zonal wind from the coupled simulations. Atmospheric experiments driven by global SST and sea ice changes do, however, reproduce the eastward extension. Additional experiments suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations do not directly influence storm-track changes in the coupled simulations, although they do through GHG-induced changes in SST. The eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track is hypothesized to be linked to western Pacific SST changes that influence tropically forced Rossby wave trains, but further studies are needed to isolate this mechanism from other dynamical adjustments to global warming.},
author = {Ciasto, Laura M. and Li, Camille and Wettstein, Justin J. and Kvamst{\o}, Nils Gunnar},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0860.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {6973--6991},
title = {{North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature: Local versus Remote Influences}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0860.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{crj18,
author = {Clark, S and Reeder, M.J. and Jakob, C},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3217},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {711},
pages = {458--467},
publisher = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
title = {{Rainfall regimes over northwestern Australia}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.3217},
volume = {144},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Clarke2015,
abstract = {Retreat of mountain glaciers is a significant contributor to sea-level rise and a potential threat to human populations through impacts on water availability and regional hydrology. Like most of Earth's mountain glaciers, those in western North America are experiencing rapid mass loss. Projections of future large-scale mass change are based on surface mass balance models that are open to criticism, because they ignore or greatly simplify glacier physics. Here we use a high-resolution regional glaciation model, developed by coupling physics-based ice dynamics with a surface mass balance model, to project the fate of glaciers in western Canada. We use twenty-first-century climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations; the results indicate that by 2100, the volume of glacier ice in western Canada will shrink by 70 ± 10{\%} relative to 2005. According to our simulations, few glaciers will remain in the Interior and Rockies regions, but maritime glaciers, in particular those in northwestern British Columbia, will survive in a diminished state. We project the maximum rate of ice volume loss, corresponding to peak input of deglacial meltwater to streams and rivers, to occur around 2020–2040. Potential implications include impacts on aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, forestry, alpine tourism and water quality.},
author = {Clarke, Garry K C and Jarosch, Alexander H and Anslow, Faron S and Radi{\'{c}}, Valentina and Menounos, Brian},
doi = {10.1038/NGEO2407},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {apr},
pages = {372},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Projected deglaciation of western Canada in the twenty-first century}},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Claussen2003,
abstract = {By using a climate system model of intermediate complexity, we have simulated long-term natural climate changes occurring over the last 9000 years. The paleo-simulations in which the model is driven by orbital forcing only, i.e., by changes in insolation caused by changes in the Earth's orbit, are compared with sensitivity simulations in which various scenarios of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration are prescribed. Focussing on climate and vegetation change in northern Africa, we recapture the strong greening of the Sahara in the early and mid-Holocene (some 9000–6000 years ago), and we show that some expansion of grassland into the Sahara is theoretically possible, if the atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases well above pre-industrial values and if vegetation growth is not disturbed. Depending on the rate of CO 2 increase, vegetation migration into the Sahara can be rapid, up to 1/10th of the Saharan area per decade, but could not exceed a coverage of 45{\%}. In our model, vegetation expansion into today's Sahara is triggered by an increase in summer precipitation which is amplified by a positive feedback between vegetation and precipitation. This is valid for simulations with orbital forcing and greenhouse-gas forcing. However, we argue that the mid-Holocene climate optimum some 9000 to 6000 years ago with its marked reduction of deserts in northern Africa is not a direct analogue for future greenhouse-gas induced climate change, as previously hypothesized. Not only does the global pattern of climate change differ between the mid-Holocene model experiments and the greenhouse-gas sensitivity experiments, but the relative role of mechanisms which lead to a reduction of the Sahara also changes. Moreover, the amplitude of simulated vegetation cover changes in northern Africa is less than is estimated for mid-Holocene climate.},
author = {Claussen, Martin and Brovkin, Victor and Ganopolski, Andrey and Kubatzki, Claudia and Petoukhov, Vladimir},
doi = {10.1023/A:1022115604225},
isbn = {0165-0009},
issn = {01650009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
pages = {99--118},
title = {{Climate change in northern Africa: The past is not the future}},
volume = {57},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Claussen2013,
abstract = {he end of the African Humid Period between 6,000 and 4,000 years ago was associated with large changes in precipitation and vegetation cover. Sediment records from Lake Yoa, Chad, show a gradual decline in precipitation and fluctuation in vegetation over this interval, and have been suggested to demonstrate a weak interaction between climate and vegetation1–3. However, interpretation of these data has neglected the potential effects of plant diversity on the stability of the climate–vegetation system. Here we use a conceptual model that represents plant diversity in terms of moisture requirement. Some of the plant types simulated are sensitive to changes in precipitation, which alone would lead to an unstable system with the possibility of abrupt changes. Other plants are more resilient, resulting in a stable system that changes gradually.We demonstrate that plant diversity tends to attenuate the instability of the interaction between climate and sensitive plant types, whereas it reduces the stability of the interaction between climate and less-sensitive plant types. Hence, despite large sensitivities of individual plant types to precipitation, a gradual decline in precipitation and shift in mean vegetation cover can occur. However, we suggest that the system could become unstable if some plant types were removed or introduced, leading to an abrupt regime shift.},
author = {Claussen, M. and Bathiany, S. and Brovkin, V. and Kleinen, T.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1962},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {17520894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
pages = {954--958},
title = {{Simulated climate-vegetation interaction in semi-arid regions affected by plant diversity}},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Coats2016a,
abstract = {Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combination of spatiotemporal tree ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate to infer the atmosphere-ocean dynamics that coincide with megadroughts over the American West and find that these features are consistently associated with 10–30 year periods of frequent cold El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation conditions and not a centuries-long shift in the mean of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results suggest an important role for internal variability in driving past megadroughts. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, however, do not simulate a consistent association between megadroughts and internal variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with implications for our confidence in megadrought risk projections},
author = {Coats, S. and Smerdon, J. E. and Cook, B. I. and Seager, R. and Cook, E. R. and Anchukaitis, K. J.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL070105},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {9886--9894},
title = {{Internal ocean–atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL070105},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Coats2015,
abstract = {Multidecadal drought periods in the North American Southwest (25 8 –42.5 8 N, 125 8 –105 8 W), so-called mega- droughts, are a prominent feature of the paleoclimate record over the last millennium (LM). Six forced transient simulations of the LM along with corresponding historical (1850–2005) and 500-yr preindustrial control runs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed to determine if atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to simulate droughts that are similar in persistence and severity to the megadroughts in the proxy-derived North American Drought Atlas. Megadroughts are found in each of the AOGCM simulations of the LM, although there are intermodel differences in the number, persistence, and severity of these features. Despite these differences, a common feature of the simulated megadroughts is that they are not forced by changes in the exogenous forcing conditions. Furthermore, only the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), version 4, simulation contains megadroughts that are consistently forced by cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. These La Ni {\~{n}}a –like mean states are not accompanied by changes to the interannual variability of the El Ni {\~{n}}o –Southern Oscillation system and result from internal multidecadal vari- ability of the tropical Pacific mean state, of which the CCSM has the largest magnitude of the analyzed simu- lations. Critically, the CCSM is also found to have a realistic teleconnection between the tropical Pacific and North America that is stationary on multidecadal time scales. Generally, models with some combination of a realistic and stationary teleconnection and large multidecadal variability in the tropical Pacific are found to have the highest incidence of megadroughts driven by the tropical Pacific boundary conditions.},
author = {Coats, Sloan and Smerdon, Jason E. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Seager, Richard},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {124--142},
title = {{Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced?}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Coats2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.},
author = {Coats, S. and Karnauskas, K. B.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074622},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Pacific,SST,anthropogenic,climate,historical,trends},
pages = {9928--9937},
title = {{Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074622},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{cbc15,
author = {Colle, Brian A and Booth, James F and Chang, Edmund K M},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-015-0013-7},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {125--143},
title = {{A Review of Historical and Future Changes of Extratropical Cyclones and Associated Impacts Along the US East Coast}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-015-0013-7},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{c17,
author = {Collins, S},
pages = {23},
publisher = {British Geological Survey Open Report},
series = {OR/17/068},
title = {{Incorporating groundwater flow in land surface models: literature review and recommendations for further work}},
url = {http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/519389},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{IPCCLongtermProjectionsCollins2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Collins, Matthew and Knutti, Reto and Arblaster, Julie and Dufresne, Jean-Louis and Fichefet, Thierry and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Gao, Xuejie and Gutowski, William J and Johns, Tim and Krinner, Gerhard and Shongwe, Mxolisi and Tebaldi, Claudia and Weaver, Andrew J and Wehner, Michael},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {12},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.024},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {1029--1136},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility}},
type = {Book Section},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Colonia2017,
abstract = {Global warming causes rapid shrinking of mountain glaciers. New lakes can, thus, form in the future where overdeepenings in the beds of still-existing glaciers are becoming exposed. Such new lakes can be amplifiers of natural hazards to downstream populations, but also constitute tourist attractions, offer new potential for hydropower, and may be of interest for water management. Identification of sites where future lakes will possibly form is, therefore, an essential step to initiate early planning of measures for risk reduction and sustainable use as part of adaptation strategies with respect to impacts from climate change. In order to establish a corresponding knowledge base, a systematic inventory of glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes was compiled for the still glacierized parts of the Peruvian Andes using the 2003-2010 glacier outlines from the national glacier inventory and the SRTM DEM from the year 2000. The resulting inventory contains 201 sites with overdeepened glacier beds {\textgreater}1 ha (104 m2) where notable future lakes could form, representing a total volume of about 260 million m3. A rough classification was assigned for the most likely formation time of the possible new lakes. Such inventory information sets the stage for analyzing sustainable use and hazard/risk for specific basins or regions.},
author = {Colonia, Daniel and Torres, Judith and Haeberli, Wilfried and Schauwecker, Simone and Braendle, Eliane and Giraldez, Claudia and Cochachin, Alejo},
doi = {10.3390/w9050336},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {Climatic change,Future glacier lake,Glacier retreat,Outburst flood,Potential hazard},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {336},
publisher = {MDPI AG},
title = {{Compiling an Inventory of Glacier-Bed Overdeepenings and Potential New Lakes in De-Glaciating Areas of the Peruvian Andes: Approach, First Results, and Perspectives for Adaptation to Climate Change}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/5/336},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{clv16,
abstract = {Volcanic aerosols exert the most important natural radiative forcing of the last millennium. State-of-the-art paleoclimate simulations of this interval are typically forced with diverse spatial patterns of volcanic forcing, leading to different responses in tropical hydroclimate. Recently, theoretical considerations relating the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position to the demands of global energy balance have emerged in the literature, allowing for a connection to be made between the paleoclimate simulations and recent developments in the understanding of ITCZ dynamics. These energetic considerations aid in explaining the well-known historical, paleoclimatic, and modeling evidence that the ITCZ migrates away from the hemisphere that is energetically deficient in response to asymmetric forcing. Here we use two separate general circulation model (GCM) suites of experiments for the last millennium to relate the ITCZ position to asymmetries in prescribed volcanic sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere and related asymmetric radiative forcing. We discuss the ITCZ shift in the context of atmospheric energetics and discuss the ramifications of transient ITCZ migrations for other sensitive indicators of changes in the tropical hydrologic cycle, including global streamflow. For the first time, we also offer insight into the large-scale fingerprint of water isotopologues in precipitation ($\delta$18Op) in response to asymmetries in radiative forcing. The ITCZ shifts away from the hemisphere with greater volcanic forcing. Since the isotopic composition of precipitation in the ITCZ is relatively depleted compared to areas outside this zone, this meridional precipitation migration results in a large-scale enrichment (depletion) in the isotopic composition of tropical precipitation in regions the ITCZ moves away from (toward). Our results highlight the need for careful consideration of the spatial structure of volcanic forcing for interpreting volcanic signals in proxy records and therefore in evaluating the skill of Common Era climate model output.},
author = {Colose, Christopher M. and LeGrande, Allegra N. and Vuille, Mathias},
doi = {10.5194/esd-7-681-2016},
issn = {21904987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {681--696},
title = {{Hemispherically asymmetric volcanic forcing of tropical hydroclimate during the last millennium}},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Comas-Bru2014,
author = {Comas-Bru, Laia and McDermott, Frank},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2158},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {679},
pages = {354--363},
title = {{Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the European twentieth century NAO-winter climate relationship}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2158},
volume = {140},
year = {2014}
}
@article{COMTE2016179,
abstract = {Study region
Coastal areas of Kenya (Kilifi County), Tanzania (Kilwa district) and Comoros (Ngazidja island), East Africa.
Study focus
Research aimed to understand the physical and societal drivers of groundwater accessibility and identify critical aspects of groundwater access and knowledge gaps that require further monitoring and research. Interdisciplinary societal, environmental and hydrogeological investigations were consistently undertaken in the three areas considered as exemplars of the diversity of the coastal fringes of the wider region. This paper focuses on the hydrogeological outcomes of the research, framed within the principal socio-environmental issues identified.
New hydrological insights
Results confirm the fundamental importance of coastal groundwater resources for the development of the region and the urgent need to match groundwater development with demographic and economic growth. Hydrogeological knowledge is fragmented, groundwater lacks a long-term monitoring infrastructure and information transfer from stakeholders to users is limited. Current trends in demography, climate, sea-level and land-use are further threatening freshwater availability. Despite possessing high-productivity aquifers, water quality from wells and boreholes is generally impacted by saltwater intrusion. Shallow large-diameter wells, following the traditional model of these areas, consistently prove to be less saline and more durable than deeper small-diameter boreholes. However, promoting the use of large numbers of shallow wells poses a significant challenge for governance, requiring coherent management of the resource at local and national scales and the engagement of local communities.},
author = {Comte, Jean-Christophe and Cassidy, Rachel and Obando, Joy and Robins, Nicholas and Ibrahim, Kassim and Melchioly, Simon and Mjemah, Ibrahimu and Shauri, Halimu and Bourhane, Anli and Mohamed, Ibrahim and Noe, Christine and Mwega, Beatrice and Makokha, Mary and Join, Jean-Lambert and Banton, Olivier and Davies, Jeffrey},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.065},
issn = {2214-5818},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
keywords = {Coastal aquifer,Community engagement,Eastern Africa,Environmental change,Governance,Groundwater},
pages = {179--199},
title = {{Challenges in groundwater resource management in coastal aquifers of East Africa: Investigations and lessons learnt in the Comoros Islands, Kenya and Tanzania}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581815002232},
volume = {5},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Condon2020,
abstract = {A warmer climate increases evaporative demand. However, response to warming depends on water availability. Existing earth system models represent soil moisture but simplify groundwater connections, a primary control on soil moisture. Here we apply an integrated surface-groundwater hydrologic model to evaluate the sensitivity of shallow groundwater to warming across the majority of the US. We show that as warming shifts the balance between water supply and demand, shallow groundwater storage can buffer plant water stress; but only where shallow groundwater connections are present, and not indefinitely. As warming persists, storage can be depleted and connections lost. Similarly, in the arid western US warming does not result in significant groundwater changes because this area is already largely water limited. The direct response of shallow groundwater storage to warming demonstrates the strong and early effect that low to moderate warming may have on groundwater storage and evapotranspiration.},
author = {Condon, Laura E and Atchley, Adam L and Maxwell, Reed M},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-14688-0},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {873},
pmid = {32054857},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Evapotranspiration depletes groundwater under warming over the contiguous United States}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14688-0},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Conway2005,
author = {Conway, Declan and Allison, Edward and Felstead, Richard and Goulden, Marisa},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2004.1475},
editor = {Spencer, Tom and Laughton, Anthony S. and Flemming, Nic C.},
issn = {1364-503X},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {1826},
pages = {49--54},
title = {{Rainfall variability in East Africa: implications for natural resources management and livelihoods}},
url = {http://www.royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2004.1475},
volume = {363},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Cook2013,
author = {Cook, B. I. and Seager, R.},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50111},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1690--1699},
title = {{The response of the North American Monsoon to increased greenhouse gas forcing}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jgrd.50111},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{cook2015unprecedented,
author = {Cook, Benjamin I and Ault, Toby R and Smerdon, Jason E},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1400082},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {e1400082},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1400082},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Cook2013a,
abstract = {Tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These megadroughts had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events, but the causes remain uncertain. The authors conducted a suite of general circulation model experiments to test the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface forcing on the MCA megadroughts over the central plains. The land surface forcing is represented as a set of dune mobilization boundary conditions, derived from available geomorphological evidence and modeled as increased bare soil area and a dust aerosol source (32°–44°N, 105°–95°W). In the experiments, cold tropical Pacific SST forcing suppresses precipitation over the central plains but cannot reproduce the overall drying or persistence seen in the PDSI reconstruction. Droughts in the scenario with dust aerosols, however, are amplified and have significantly longer persistence than in other model experiments, more closely matching the reconstructed PDSI. This additional drying occurs because the dust increases the shortwave planetary albedo, reducing energy inputs to the surface and boundary layer. The energy deficit increases atmospheric stability, inhibiting convection and reducing cloud cover and precipitation over the central plains. Results from this study provide the first model-based evidence that dust aerosol forcing and land surface changes could have contributed to the intensity and persistence of the central plains megadroughts, although uncertainties remain in the formulation of the boundary conditions and the future importance of these feedbacks.},
author = {Cook, Benjamin I. and Seager, Richard and Miller, Ron L. and Mason, Joseph A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00022.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {4414--4430},
title = {{Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00022.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Cook2009,
abstract = {The "Dust Bowl" drought of the 1930s was highly unusual for North America, deviating from the typical pattern forced by "La Nina" with the maximum drying in the central and northern Plains, warm temperature anomalies across almost the entire continent, and widespread dust storms. General circulation models (GCMs), forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the 1930s, produce a drought, but one that is centered in southwestern North America and without the warming centered in the middle of the continent. Here, we show that the inclusion of forcing from human land degradation during the period, in addition to the anomalous SSTs, is necessary to reproduce the anomalous features of the Dust Bowl drought. The degradation over the Great Plains is represented in the GCM as a reduction in vegetation cover and the addition of a soil dust aerosol source, both consequences of crop failure. As a result of land surface feedbacks, the simulation of the drought is much improved when the new dust aerosol and vegetation boundary conditions are included. Vegetation reductions explain the high temperature anomaly over the northern U.S., and the dust aerosols intensify the drought and move it northward of the purely ocean-forced drought pattern. When both factors are included in the model simulations, the precipitation and temperature anomalies are of similar magnitude and in a similar location compared with the observations. Human-induced land degradation is likely to have not only contributed to the dust storms of the 1930s but also amplified the drought, and these together turned a modest SST-forced drought into one of the worst environmental disasters the U.S. has experienced.},
author = {Cook, B. I. and Miller, R. L. and Seager, R.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0810200106},
isbn = {1349975001},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {13},
pages = {4997--5001},
pmid = {19289836},
title = {{Amplification of the North American “Dust Bowl” drought through human-induced land degradation}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0810200106},
volume = {106},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Cook2004,
abstract = {The western United States is experiencing a severe multiyear drought that is unprecedented in some hydroclimatic records. Using gridded drought reconstructions that cover most of the western United States over the past 1200 years, we show that this drought pales in comparison to an earlier period of elevated aridity and epic drought in AD 900 to 1300, an interval broadly consistent with the Medieval Warm Period. If elevated aridity in the western United States is a natural response to climate warming, then any trend toward warmer temperatures in the future could lead to a serious long-term increase in aridity over western North America.},
author = {Cook, Edward R. and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Eakin, C. Mark and Meko, David M. and Stahle, David W.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1102586},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {nov},
number = {5698},
pages = {1015--1018},
pmid = {15472040},
title = {{Long-Term Aridity Changes in the Western United States}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1102586},
volume = {306},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Cook2015b,
abstract = {40 Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other " Old World " climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the " Old World Drought Atlas " (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.},
author = {Cook, Edward R. and Seager, Richard and Kushnir, Yochanan and Briffa, Keith R. and B{\"{u}}ntgen, Ulf and Frank, David and Krusic, Paul J. and Tegel, Willy and van der Schrier, Gerard and Andreu-Hayles, Laia and Baillie, Mike and Baittinger, Claudia and Bleicher, Niels and Bonde, Niels and Brown, David and Carrer, Marco and Cooper, Richard and {\v{C}}ufar, Katarina and Dittmar, Christoph and Esper, Jan and Griggs, Carol and Gunnarson, Bj{\"{o}}rn and G{\"{u}}nther, Bj{\"{o}}rn and Gutierrez, Emilia and Haneca, Kristof and Helama, Samuli and Herzig, Franz and Heussner, Karl-Uwe and Hofmann, Jutta and Janda, Pavel and Kontic, Raymond and K{\"{o}}se, Nesibe and Kyncl, Tom{\'{a}}{\v{s}} and Levani{\v{c}}, Tom and Linderholm, Hans and Manning, Sturt and Melvin, Thomas M. and Miles, Daniel and Neuwirth, Burkhard and Nicolussi, Kurt and Nola, Paola and Panayotov, Momchil and Popa, Ionel and Rothe, Andreas and Seftigen, Kristina and Seim, Andrea and Svarva, Helene and Svoboda, Miroslav and Thun, Terje and Timonen, Mauri and Touchan, Ramzi and Trotsiuk, Volodymyr and Trouet, Valerie and Walder, Felix and Wa{\.{z}}ny, Tomasz and Wilson, Rob and Zang, Christian},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1500561},
isbn = {2375-2548},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {nov},
number = {10},
pages = {e1500561},
pmid = {24889633},
title = {{Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1500561},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Cook2010a,
abstract = {A 1250 km2 3D seismic volume is used to provide a detailed spatial and geometrical analysis of fifteen Pleistocene tunnel valleys in the Danish North Sea. All the valleys are buried; they are up to 39 km long, 3-4 km wide and up to 350 m deep. The valleys are part of a vast tunnel valley province covering an area of some 0.5 million km2 of the formerly glaciated lowland areas of North West Europe. The valleys consist of non-branching, non-anastomosing troughs; they exhibit strongly undulating bottom profiles with numerous sub-basins and thresholds, and are characterised by adverse end slopes. Cross-cutting relationships and theoretical considerations suggest the occurrence of seven major episodes of valley incision attributed to ice marginal oscillations within a few glacials. Calculations considering the valley end gradients and theoretical ice-surface profiles suggest that the valleys were formed by pressurised subglacial meltwater erosion. Given a range of theoretical ice-surface profiles, the adverse end slopes are well beyond the supercooling threshold, which suggests that the water was not in thermal equilibrium with the basal ice and that flow was concentrated in substantial conduits with sufficient mass and flux to maintain water temperature well above the freezing point. Copyright {\textcopyright} 2007 John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd.},
author = {Cook, Edward R. and Seager, Richard and Heim, Richard R. and Vose, Russell S. and Herweijer, Celine and Woodhouse, Connie},
doi = {10.1002/jqs.1303},
issn = {02678179},
journal = {Journal of Quaternary Science},
keywords = {Hydroclimatic change,IPCC,Megadrought,North america,Palaeoclimate},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {48--61},
title = {{Megadroughts in North America: placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long-term palaeoclimate context}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jqs.1303},
volume = {25},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Cook2019a,
abstract = {In the mid-twentieth century (1948–57), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth-century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth-century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October–March) across the Southwest, southern plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April–September) in the southern plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, ≈3 K above preindustrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and southern plains and intensified in the Southeast, whereas during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas–forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and southern plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern United States, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas–forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.},
author = {Cook, Benjamin I. and Seager, Richard and Williams, A. Park and Puma, Michael J and McDermid, Sonali and Kelly, Maxwell and Nazarenko, Larissa},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-18-0832.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate models,Drought,North America},
number = {17},
pages = {5417--5436},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth Century North American Drought In a Warmer World}},
url = {http://10.0.4.151/jcli-d-18-0832.1 https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0832.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Cook2012a,
abstract = {Changes in growing seasons for 2041–2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20{\%} in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5–10{\%} increases. A longer growing season up to 30{\%} in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous mid-tropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5–15{\%} in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40–80{\%} reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean.},
author = {Cook, Kerry H. and Vizy, Edward K.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1324-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {2937--2955},
title = {{Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1324-1},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Cook2016c,
abstract = {Abstract Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003–2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010–2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December–January–February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500–2012 Common Era), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multidecadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March-April-May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased toward summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multiyear drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought.},
author = {Cook, Benjamin I. and Palmer, Jonathan G and Cook, Edward R and Turney, Chris S M and Allen, Kathryn and Fenwick, Pavla and O'Donnell, Alison and Lough, Janice M and Grierson, Pauline F and Ho, Michelle and Baker, Patrick J},
doi = {10.1002/2016JD024892},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {12820--12838},
title = {{The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD024892},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Cook9999,
author = {Cook, Benjamin I and Mankin, Justin S and Marvel, K and Williams, A Park and Smerdon, Jason E and Anchukaitis, Kevin J},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001461},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {e2019EF001461},
title = {{Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019EF001461},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cook2018,
abstract = {Drought is a complex and multivariate phenomenon influenced by diverse physical and biological processes. Such complexity precludes simplistic explanations of cause and effect, making investigations of climate change and drought a challenging task. Here, we review important recent advances in our understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future. Paleoclimate studies of drought variability over the last two millennia have progressed considerably through the development of new reconstructions and analyses combining reconstructions with process-based models. This work has generated new evidence for tropical Pacific forcing of megadroughts in Southwest North America, provided additional constraints for interpreting climate change projections in poorly characterized regions like East Africa, and demonstrated the exceptional magnitude of many modern era droughts. Development of high resolution proxy networks has lagged in many regions (e.g., South America, Africa), however, and quantitative comparisons between the paleoclimate record, models, and observations remain challenging. Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change consistent with long-term warming projections have been identified for droughts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Western North America, and the Mediterranean. In other regions (e.g., Southwest North America, Australia, Africa), however, the degree to which climate change has affected recent droughts is more uncertain. While climate change-forced declines in precipitation have been detected for the Mediterranean, in most regions, the climate change signal has manifested through warmer temperatures that have increased evaporative losses and reduced snowfall and snowpack levels, amplifying deficits in soil moisture and runoff despite uncertain precipitation changes. Over the next century, projections indicate that warming will increase drought risk and severity across much of the subtropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, a consequence of regional precipitation declines and widespread warming. For many regions, however, the magnitude, robustness, and even direction of climate change-forced trends in drought depends on how drought is defined, with often large differences across indicators of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and vegetation health. Increasing confidence in climate change projections of drought and the associated impacts will likely depend on resolving uncertainties in processes that are currently poorly constrained (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions, terrestrial vegetation) and improved consideration of the role for human policies and management in ameliorating and adapting to changes in drought risk.},
author = {Cook, Benjamin I. and Mankin, Justin S. and Anchukaitis, Kevin J.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0093-2},
isbn = {2198-6061},
issn = {21986061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Climate change,Detection and attribution,Drought,Paleoclimate},
number = {2},
pages = {164--179},
publisher = {Current Climate Change Reports},
title = {{Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future}},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Cook2016,
author = {Cook, Benjamin I. and Cook, Edward R. and Smerdon, Jason E. and Seager, Richard and Williams, A. Park and Coats, Sloan and Stahle, David W. and D{\'{i}}az, Jos{\'{e}} Villanueva},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.394},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {411--432},
title = {{North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations}},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Cook2016a,
abstract = {Recent Mediterranean droughts have highlighted concerns that climate change may be contributing to observed drying trends, but natural climate variability in the region is still poorly understood. We analyze 900 years (1100–2012) of Mediterranean drought variability in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a spatiotemporal tree ring reconstruction of the June-July-August self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. In the Mediterranean, the OWDA is highly correlated with spring precipitation (April–June), the North Atlantic Oscillation (January–April), the Scandinavian Pattern (January–March), and the East Atlantic Pattern (April–June). Drought variability displays significant east-west coherence across the basin on multidecadal to centennial timescales and north-south antiphasing in the eastern Mediterranean, with a tendency for wet anomalies in the Black Sea region (e.g., Greece, Anatolia, and the Balkans) when coastal Libya, the southern Levant, and the Middle East are dry, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent droughts are centered in the western Mediterranean, Greece, and the Levant. Events of similar magnitude in the western Mediterranean and Greece occur in the OWDA, but the recent 15 year drought in the Levant (1998–2012) is the driest in the record. Estimating uncertainties using a resampling approach, we conclude that there is an 89{\%} likelihood that this drought is drier than any comparable period of the last 900 years and a 98{\%} likelihood that it is drier than the last 500 years. These results confirm the exceptional nature of this drought relative to natural variability in recent centuries, consistent with studies that have found evidence for anthropogenically forced drying in the region.},
author = {Cook, Benjamin I. and Anchukaitis, Kevin J. and Touchan, Ramzi and Meko, David M. and Cook, Edward R.},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD023929},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2060--2074},
title = {{Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD023929},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Cook2015,
abstract = {Evaluation of three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP-2, and MERRA) and two observational datasets [CRU and Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)] for 1979–2012 demonstrates that the surface temperature of the Sahara Desert has increased at a rate that is 2–4 times greater than that of the tropical-mean temperature over the 34-yr time period. While the response to enhanced greenhouse gas forcing over most of the globe involves the full depth of the atmosphere, with increases in longwave back radiation increasing latent heat fluxes, the dryness of the Sahara surface precludes this response. Changes in the surface heat balance over the Sahara during the analysis period are primarily in the upward and downward longwave fluxes. As a result, the warming is concentrated near the surface, and a desert amplification of the warming occurs. The desert amplification is analogous to the polar amplification of the global warming signal, which is concentrated at the surface, in part, because of the vertical ...},
author = {Cook, Kerry H. and Vizy, Edward K. and Cook, Kerry H. and Vizy, Edward K.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00230.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Africa,Decadal variability,Heat budgets/fluxes,Heating,Subtropics,Surface observations},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6560--6580},
title = {{Detection and analysis of an amplified warming of the Sahara Desert}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00230.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Cook:2014,
abstract = {Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twenty-first century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman-Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of ≤−1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 {\%}. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of ≤−1; 11 to 44 {\%}), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.},
author = {Cook, Benjamin I. and Smerdon, Jason E. and Seager, Richard and Coats, Sloan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y},
isbn = {0930-7575},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CMIP5,Drought,Global warming,PDSI,SPEI},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2607--2627},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Global warming and 21st century drying}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y},
volume = {43},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Corona2018,
author = {Corona, Roberto and Montaldo, Nicola and Albertson, John D.},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-17-0078.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {485--498},
title = {{On the Role of NAO-Driven Interannual Variability in Rainfall Seasonality on Water Resources and Hydrologic Design in a Typical Mediterranean Basin}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0078.1},
volume = {19},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Correa2020,
author = {Correa, Isabel and Arias, Paola A. and Rojas, Maisa},
doi = {doi: 10.1002/joc.6880},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {international journal of climatology},
pages = {E2801--E2819},
title = {{Evaluation of multiple indices of the South American monsoon}},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Corvec2017,
abstract = {Abstract. The two components of the tropical overturning circulation, the meridional Hadley circulation (HC) and the zonal Walker circulation (WC), are key to the re-distribution of moisture, heat and mass in the atmosphere. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ∼ 3.3–3 Ma) is considered a very rough analogue of near-term future climate change, yet changes to the tropical overturning circulations in the mPWP are poorly understood. Here, climate model simulations from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) are analyzed to show that the tropical overturning circulations in the mPWP were weaker than preindustrial circulations, just as they are projected to be in future climate change. The weakening HC response is consistent with future projections, and its strength is strongly related to the meridional gradient of sea surface warming between the tropical and subtropical oceans. The weakening of the WC is less robust in PlioMIP than in future projections, largely due to inter-model variations in simulated warming of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). When the TIO warms faster (slower) than the tropical mean, local upper tropospheric divergence increases (decreases) and the WC weakens less (more). These results provide strong evidence that changes to the tropical overturning circulation in the mPWP and future climate are primarily controlled by zonal (WC) and meridional (HC) gradients in tropical–subtropical sea surface temperatures.},
author = {Corvec, Shawn and Fletcher, Christopher G.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-13-135-2017},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {135--147},
title = {{Changes to the tropical circulation in the mid-Pliocene and their implications for future climate}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/13/135/2017/},
volume = {13},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Costantino2010,
author = {Costantino, Lorenzo and Br{\'{e}}on, Fran{\c{c}}ois-Marie},
doi = {10.1029/2009GL041828},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {L11801},
title = {{Analysis of aerosol–cloud interaction from multi-sensor satellite observations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2009GL041828},
volume = {37},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Coumou2014a,
abstract = {The recent decade has seen an exceptional number of high-impact summer extremes in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Many of these events were associated with anomalous jet stream circulation patterns characterized by persistent high-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves. Two mechanisms have recently been proposed that could provoke such patterns: (i) a weakening of the zonal mean jets and (ii) an amplification of quasi-stationary waves by resonance between free and forced waves in midlatitude waveguides. Based upon spectral analysis of the midtroposphere wind field, we show that the persistent jet stream patterns were, in the first place, due to an amplification of quasi-stationary waves with zonal wave numbers 6-8. However, we also detect a weakening of the zonal mean jet during these events; thus both mechanisms appear to be important. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the anomalous circulation regimes lead to persistent surface weather conditions and therefore to midlatitude synchronization of extreme heat and rainfall events on monthly timescales. The recent cluster of resonance events has resulted in a statistically significant increase in the frequency of high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves of wave numbers 7 and 8 in July and August. We show that this is a robust finding that holds for different pressure levels and reanalysis products. We argue that recent rapid warming in the Arctic and associated changes in the zonal mean zonal wind have created favorable conditions for double jet formation in the extratropics, which promotes the development of resonant flow regimes.},
author = {Coumou, Dim and Petoukhov, Vladimir and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Petri, Stefan and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1412797111},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Arctic amplification,Climate change,Climate impact,Midlatitude weather,Planetary waves,climate change,climate impact,midlatitude weather,planetary waves},
month = {aug},
number = {34},
pages = {12331--12336},
pmid = {25114245},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25114245 www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1412797111},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{clb15,
abstract = {Has recent rapid warming in the Arctic affected weather elsewhere in the world? Coumou et al. find that some key measures of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere have weakened during the summer. This change has been caused by the reduction of the temperature difference between mid-latitudes and the North Pole. As summertime circulation has decreased in intensity, episodes of hot weather have become more persistent because there are fewer storms to bring cooler conditions.Science, this issue p. 324 Rapid warming in the Arctic could influence mid-latitude circulation by reducing the poleward temperature gradient. The largest changes are generally expected in autumn or winter, but whether significant changes have occurred is debated. Here we report significant weakening of summer circulation detected in three key dynamical quantities: (i) the zonal-mean zonal wind, (ii) the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), and (iii) the amplitude of fast-moving Rossby waves. Weakening of the zonal wind is explained by a reduction in the poleward temperature gradient. Changes in Rossby waves and EKE are consistent with regression analyses of climate model projections and changes over the seasonal cycle. Monthly heat extremes are associated with low EKE, and thus the observed weakening might have contributed to more persistent heat waves in recent summers.},
author = {Coumou, Dim and Lehmann, Jascha and Beckmann, Johanna},
doi = {10.1126/science.1261768},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
number = {6232},
pages = {324--327},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1261768},
volume = {348},
year = {2015}
}
@article{crrlckdgfd,
author = {Couvreux, F and Roehrig, R and Rio, C and Lefebvre, M.-P. and Caian, M and Komori, T and Derbyshire, S and Guichard, F and Favot, F and D'Andrea, F and Bechtold, P. and Gentine, P.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2517},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {jul},
number = {691},
pages = {2220--2236},
title = {{Representation of daytime moist convection over the semi-arid Tropics by parametrizations used in climate and meteorological models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2517},
volume = {141},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Cowan2020a,
abstract = {The severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socio-economic and ecological disaster over North America's Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world.},
author = {Cowan, Tim and Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Schurer, Andrew and Tett, Simon F. B. and Vautard, Robert and Yiou, Pascal and J{\'{e}}z{\'{e}}quel, Agla{\'{e}} and Otto, Friederike E. L. and Harrington, Luke J. and Ng, Benjamin},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16676-w},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {2870},
pmid = {32513943},
title = {{Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cox2004,
abstract = {The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a ''business as usual'' emissions scenario CO2 concentrations reached about 980 ppmv by 2100, which is about 280 ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO2 arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO2 in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model},
author = {Cox, Peter M. and Betts, R. A. and Collins, M. and Harris, P. P. and Huntingford, C. and Jones, C. D.},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4},
isbn = {0177-798X},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {jun},
number = {1-3},
pages = {137--156},
pmid = {18939997},
title = {{Amazonian forest dieback under climate–carbon cycle projections for the 21st century}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4},
volume = {78},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Creamean2013,
abstract = {Winter storms in California's Sierra Nevada increase seasonal snowpack and provide critical water resources and hydropower for the state. Thus, the mechanisms influencing precipitation in this region have been the subject of research for decades. Previous studies suggest Asian dust enhances cloud ice and precipitation, whereas few studies consider biological aerosols as an important global source of ice nuclei (IN). Here, we show that dust and biological aerosols transported from as far as the Sahara were present in glaciated high-altitude clouds coincident with elevated IN concentrations and ice-induced precipitation. This study presents the first direct cloud and precipitation measurements showing that Saharan and Asian dust and biological aerosols probably serve as IN and play an important role in orographic precipitation processes over the western United States.},
author = {Creamean, J.M. and Suski, K.J. and Rosenfeld, D. and Cazorla, A. and DeMott, P.J. and Sullivan, R.C. and White, A.B. and Ralph, F.M. and Minnis, P. and Comstock, J.M. and Tomlinson, J.M. and Prather, K.A.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1227279},
issn = {10959203},
journal = {Science},
number = {6127},
pages = {1572--1578},
title = {{Dust and biological aerosols from the Sahara and Asia influence precipitation in the Western U.S}},
volume = {340},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Crook2015,
abstract = {Earth radiation management has been suggested as a way to rapidly counteract global warming in the face of a lack of mitigation efforts, buying time and avoiding potentially catastrophic warming. We compare six different radiation management schemes that use surface, troposphere, and stratosphere interventions in a single climate model in which we projected future climate from 2020 to 2099 based on RCP4.5. We analyze the surface air temperature responses to determine how effective the schemes are at returning temperature to its 1986–2005 climatology and analyze precipitation responses to compare side effects. We find crop albedo enhancement is largely ineffective at returning temperature to its 1986–2005 climatology. Desert albedo enhancement causes excessive cooling in the deserts and severe shifts in tropical precipitation. Ocean albedo enhancement, sea-spray geoengineering, cirrus cloud thinning, and stratospheric SO2 injection have the potential to cool more uniformly, but cirrus cloud thinning may not be able to cool by much more than 1 K globally. We find that of the schemes potentially able to return surface air temperature to 1986–2005 climatology under future greenhouse gas warming, none has significantly less severe precipitation side effects than other schemes. Despite different forcing patterns, ocean albedo enhancement, sea-spray geoengineering, cirrus cloud thinning, and stratospheric SO2 injection all result in large scale tropical precipitation responses caused by Hadley cell changes and land precipitation changes largely driven by thermodynamic changes. Widespread regional scale changes in precipitation over land are significantly different from the 1986–2005 climatology and would likely necessitate significant adaptation despite geoengineering.},
author = {Crook, J. A. and Jackson, L. S. and Osprey, S. M. and Forster, P. M.},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD023269},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {9352--9373},
title = {{A comparison of temperature and precipitation responses to different Earth radiation management geoengineering schemes}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015JD023269},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Cruz2005,
abstract = {During the last glacial period, large millennial-scale temperature oscillations—the 'Dansgaard/Oeschger' cycles—were the primary climate signal in Northern Hemisphere climate archives from the high latitudes to the tropics1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. But whether the influence of these abrupt climate changes extended to the tropical and subtropical Southern Hemisphere, where changes in insolation are thought to be the main direct forcing of climate, has remained unclear. Here we present a high-resolution oxygen isotope record of a U/Th-dated stalagmite from subtropical southern Brazil, covering the past 116,200 years. The oxygen isotope signature varies with shifts in the source region and amount of rainfall in the area, and hence records changes in atmospheric circulation and convective intensity over South America. We find that these variations in rainfall source and amount are primarily driven by summer solar radiation, which is controlled by the Earth's precessional cycle. The Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles can be detected in our record and therefore we confirm that they also affect the tropical hydrological cycle, but that in southern subtropical Brazil, millennial-scale climate changes are not as dominant as they are in the Northern Hemisphere},
author = {Cruz, Francisco W. and Burns, Stephen J. and Karmann, Ivo and Sharp, Warren D. and Vuille, Mathias and Cardoso, Andrea O. and Ferrari, Jos{\'{e}} A. and {Silva Dias}, Pedro L. and Viana, Oduvaldo},
doi = {10.1038/nature03365},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {mar},
number = {7029},
pages = {63--66},
title = {{Insolation-driven changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 116,000 years in subtropical Brazil}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature03365},
volume = {434},
year = {2005}
}
@techreport{CSIRO2015,
address = {Australia},
author = {CSIRO and BoM},
doi = {10.4225/08/58518c08c4ce8},
isbn = {9781921232947},
pages = {222},
publisher = {CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology},
title = {{Climate Change in Australia. Projections for Australia's Natural Resource Management Regions: Technical Report}},
url = {https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP154327},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Cui2020,
abstract = {The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), as a dominant mode of tropical intra- seasonal oscillation, plays an important role in the variability of global weather and climate. However, current state-of-the-art atmospheric circulation models have dif- ficulty in reproduci ng observed MJO characteristics when forced by observed daily sea surface temperature alone. An important practical question is how much data a model needs in assimilation to reproduce real MJO events? By analysing ERA- 20C and NOAA-20CR reanalysis data, the authors tried to figure out whether a model could reproduce observed MJO events by assimilating the observed surface signal alone. The phase propagation and vertical structure associated with MJO were compared between the reanalysis data and observations during 1979–2010. A total skill score considering both temporal correlation and spatial standard devia- tion were defined. The result showed that both ERA-20C and NOAA-20CR could reproduce the observed MJO characteristics very well, with the former superior to the latter, regardless of MJO intensity. Thus, a minimum requirement for an opera- tional atmospheric model for MJO prediction is the assimilation of the observed surface signals},
author = {Cui, Jingxuan and Wang, Lu and Li, Tim and Wu, Bo},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6270},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {1279--1293},
title = {{Can reanalysis products with only surface variables assimilated capture Madden–Julian oscillation characteristics?}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6270},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cui2017,
abstract = {Atmospheric reanalyses have been used in many studies to investigate the variabilities and trends of precipitation because of their global coverage and long record; however, their results must be properly analyzed and their uncertainties must be understood. In this study, precipitation estimates from five global reanalyses [ERA-Interim; MERRA, version 2 (MERRA2); JRA-55; CFSR; and 20CR, version 2c (20CRv2c)] and one regional reanalysis (NARR) are compared against the CPC Unified Gauge-Based Analysis (CPCUGA) and GPCP over the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the period 1980–2013. Reanalyses capture the variability of the precipitation distribution over the CONUS as observed in CPCUGA and GPCP, but large regional and seasonal differences exist. Compared with CPCUGA, global reanalyses generally overestimate the precipitation over the western part of the country throughout the year and over the northeastern CONUS during the fall and winter seasons. These issues may be associated with the difficulties models have in accurately simulating precipitation over complex terrain and during snowfall events. Furthermore, systematic errors found in five global reanalyses suggest that their physical processes in modeling precipitation need to be improved. Even though negative biases exist in NARR, its spatial variability is similar to both CPCUGA and GPCP; this is anticipated because it assimilates observed precipitation, unlike the global reanalyses. Based on CPCUGA, there is an average decreasing trend of −1.38 mm yr−1 over the CONUS, which varies depending on the region with only the north-central to northeastern parts of the country having positive trends. Although all reanalyses exhibit similar interannual variation as observed in CPCUGA, their estimated precipitation trends, both linear and spatial trends, are distinct from CPCUGA.},
author = {Cui, Wenjun and Dong, Xiquan and Xi, Baike and Kennedy, Aaron},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-17-0029.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {2227--2248},
title = {{Evaluation of Reanalyzed Precipitation Variability and Trends Using the Gridded Gauge-Based Analysis over the CONUS}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0029.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cuthbert2019NClim,
abstract = {Groundwater, the largest available store of global freshwater1, is relied upon by more than two billion people2. It is therefore important to quantify the spatiotemporal interactions between groundwater and climate. However, current understanding of the global-scale sensitivity of groundwater systems to climate change3,4—as well as the resulting variation in feedbacks from groundwater to the climate system5,6—is limited. Here, using groundwater model results in combination with hydrologic data sets, we examine the dynamic timescales of groundwater system responses to climate change. We show that nearly half of global groundwater fluxes could equilibrate with recharge variations due to climate change on human ({\~{}}100 year) timescales, and that areas where water tables are most sensitive to changes in recharge are also those that have the longest groundwater response times. In particular, groundwater fluxes in arid regions are shown to be less responsive to climate variability than in humid regions. Adaptation strategies must therefore account for the hydraulic memory of groundwater systems, which can buffer climate change impacts on water resources in many regions, but may also lead to a long, but initially hidden, legacy of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on river flows and groundwater-dependent ecosystems.},
annote = {Combining groundwater models with hydrologic data sets, it is found that global groundwater fluxes can equilibrate with recharge variations due to climate change on 100 year timescales but longer where water tables are most sensitive to changes in recharge.},
author = {Cuthbert, M. O. and Gleeson, T. and Moosdorf, N. and Befus, K. M. and Schneider, A. and Hartmann, J. and Lehner, B.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0386-4},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {137--141},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Global patterns and dynamics of climate–groundwater interactions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0386-4},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Cuthbert2019,
abstract = {Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation1,2, maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets3. Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability—and their sensitivity to climatic variability—are poorly constrained4,5. Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region4 are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation–recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation–recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the ‘high certainty' consensus regarding decreasing water resources4 in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation–recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies.},
author = {Cuthbert, Mark O and Taylor, Richard G and Favreau, Guillaume and Todd, Martin C and Shamsudduha, Mohammad and Villholth, Karen G and MacDonald, Alan M and Scanlon, Bridget R and Kotchoni, D O Valerie and Vouillamoz, Jean-Michel and Lawson, Fabrice M A and Adjomayi, Philippe Armand and Kashaigili, Japhet and Seddon, David and Sorensen, James P R and Ebrahim, Girma Yimer and Owor, Michael and Nyenje, Philip M and Nazoumou, Yahaya and Goni, Ibrahim and Ousmane, Boukari Issoufou and Sibanda, Tenant and Ascott, Matthew J and Macdonald, David M J and Agyekum, William and Koussoub{\'{e}}, Youssouf and Wanke, Heike and Kim, Hyungjun and Wada, Yoshihide and Lo, Min-Hui and Oki, Taikan and Kukuric, Neno},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7768},
pages = {230--234},
title = {{Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7},
volume = {572},
year = {2019}
}
@article{DAgostino2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. The Hadley circulation (HC) extent and strength are analyzed in a wide range of simulated climates from the Last Glacial Maximum to global warming scenarios. Motivated by HC theories, we analyze how the HC is influenced by the subtropical stability, the near-surface meridional potential temperature gradient, and the tropical tropopause level. The su btropical static stability accounts for the bulk of the HC changes across the simulations. However, since it correlates strongly with global mean surface temperature, most HC changes can be attributed to global mean surface temperature changes. The HC widens as the climate warms, and it also weakens, but only robustly so in the Northern Hemisphere. On the other hand, the Southern Hemisphere strength response is uncertain, in part because subtropical static stability changes counteract meridional potential temperature gradient changes to various degrees in different models, with no consensus on the response of the latter to global warming.},
author = {D'Agostino, Roberta and Lionello, Piero and Adam, Ori and Schneider, Tapio},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074533},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Hadley circulation,PMIP3-CMIP5 climate models,climate change},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {8585--8591},
title = {{Factors controlling Hadley circulation changes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the 21st century}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL074533},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{DAgostino2020b,
abstract = {Abstract The Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes will be exposed to hydroclimatic risk in next coming decades because the subtropical expansion. However, it is not clear when the anthropogenic signal will emerge from the internal climate variability. For this purpose, we investigate the time-of-emergence (ToE) of the hemispheric and regional shift of Northern subtropical margins in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. For several indicators, the ToE of the shift of Northern subtropical margin will not occur by the end of the 21st century, neither at regional nor at hemispheric scale. The exceptions are the Mediterranean/Middle East and, to a lesser degree, Western Pacific, where the ToE would occur earlier. According to our results, given the fundamental role of the internal variability, trends of Northern Hemisphere subtropical shift that have been identified over last decades in reanalyses cannot be considered as robust signals of anthropogenic climate change.},
author = {D'Agostino, Roberta and Scambiati, Ascanio Luigi and Jungclaus, Johann and Lionello, Piero},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL089325},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Forced response,MPI-ESM Grand Ensemble,Natural variability,Northern Hemisphere Subtropics,Poleward shift,Time of Emergence},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {e2020GL089325},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Poleward Shift of Northern Subtropics in Winter: Time of Emergence of Zonal Versus Regional Signals}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089325 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL089325},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{DAgostino2020a,
abstract = {Past changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoons are less investigated than their northern counterpart because of relatively scarce paleodata. In addition, projections of SH monsoons are less robust than in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we use an energetic framework to shed lights on the mechanisms determining SH monsoonal response to external forcing: precession change at the mid-Holocene versus future greenhouse gas increase (RCP8.5). Mechanisms explaining the monsoon response are investigated by decomposing the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic components. SH monsoons weaken and contract in the multimodel mean of midHolocene simulations as a result of decreased net energy input and weakening of the dynamic component. In contrast, SH monsoons strengthen and expand in the RCP8.5 multimodel mean, as a result of increased net energy input and strengthening of the thermodynamic component. However, important regional differences on monsoonal precipitation emerge from the local response of Hadley and Walker circulations. In the midHolocene, the combined effect of Walker–Hadley changes explains the land–ocean precipitation contrast. Conversely, the increased local gross moist stability explains the increased local precipitation and net energy input under circulation weakening in RCP8.5.},
author = {D'Agostino, Roberta and Brown, Josephine R. and Moise, Aurel and Nguyen, Hanh and {Silva Dias}, Pedro L. and Jungclaus, Johann},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0672.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {9595--9613},
title = {{Contrasting Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Response: MidHolocene Orbital Forcing versus Future Greenhouse Gas–Induced Global Warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0672.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0672.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{DAgostino2019GRL,
abstract = {Precipitation and circulation patterns of Northern Hemisphere monsoons are investigated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations for mid‐Holocene and future climate scenario rcp8.5. Although both climates exhibit Northern Hemisphere warming and enhanced inter‐hemispheric thermal contrast in boreal summer, changes in the spatial extent and rainfall intensity in future climate are smaller than in mid‐Holocene for all Northern Hemisphere monsoons except the Indian monsoon. A decomposition of the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic contributions suggests that under future global warming the weaker response of the African, Indian and North American monsoons results from a compensation between both components. The dynamic component, primarily constrained by changes in net energy input over land, determines instead most of the mid‐Holocene land monsoonal rainfall response. Plain Language Summary Mechanisms mediating the response of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons are investigated in two different simulated warm climates: the mid‐Holocene driven by orbital perturbations and a future global warming scenario due to increased greenhouse gas concentration. In both climates, monsoons wetten and expand relative to present day. In general, they do so more in the past than in the future despite a large warming in the latter. To understand these different responses, we explore whether monsoon changes are mostly related to changes in the amount of water vapor held in the atmosphere or to changes in the mean atmospheric circulation. In the past, intensification of monsoons is due to the reinforcing effects of increased water vapor content and strengthening of the mean circulation. In the future, however, the mean circulation weakens, opposing the water vapor content increase and leading to an overall weaker response than in the past. Causes for this difference can be traced back to changes in the net energy input into the atmosphere: while, in the past, this energy input increases, notably over Northern Hemisphere land, it remains largely unchanged in the future climate. Our results highlight that mid‐Holocene is not an analogue for future global warming scenario.},
author = {D'Agostino, Roberta and Bader, J{\"{u}}rgen and Bordoni, Simona and Ferreira, David and Jungclaus, Johann},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081589},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Global warming,Hadley Circulation,Mid‐Holocene,Moisture budget decomposition,Monsoon,PMIP3 ‐ CMIP5},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1591--1601},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Response to Mid-Holocene Orbital Forcing and Greenhouse Gas-Induced Global Warming}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL081589 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081589},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{DAgostino2017a,
abstract = {This study analyzes the evolution of the Hadley Circulation (HC) during the twentieth century in ERA-20CM (AMIP-experiment) and ERA-20C (reanalysis). These two recent ECMWF products provide the opportunity for a new analysis of the HC trends and of their uncertainties. Further, the effect of sea surface temperature forcing (including its uncertainty) and data assimilation are investigated. Also the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim, for the period 1979–2010, is considered for a complementary analysis. Datasets present important differences in characteristics and trends of the HC. In ERA-20C HC is weaker (especially the Southern Hemisphere HC) and the whole Northern Hemisphere HC is located more southward than in ERA-20CM (especially in the boreal summer). In ERA-Interim HC is stronger and wider than both other simulations. In general, the magnitude of trends is larger and more statistically significant in ERA-20C than in ERA-20CM. The presence of large multidecadal variability across twentieth century raises doubts on the interpretation of recent behavior, such as the onset of sustained long term trends, particularly for the HC strength. In spite of this, the southward shift of the Southern Edge and widening of the Southern Hemisphere HC appear robust features in all datasets, and their trends have accelerated in the last three decades, but actual expansion rates remain affected by considerable uncertainty. Inconsistencies between datasets are attributed to the different reproduction of the links between the HC width and factors affecting it (such as mean global temperature, tropopause height, meridional temperature contrast and planetary waves), which appear more robust in ERA-20CM than in ERA-20C, particularly for the two latter factors. Further, in ERA-Interim these correlations are not statistically significant. These outcomes suggest that data assimilation degrades the links between the HC and features influencing its dynamics.},
author = {D'Agostino, Roberta and Lionello, Piero},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3250-0},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {ERA-20CM/C,ERA-Interim,Global warming,Hadley Circulation,Trends,Twentieth century},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3047--3060},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Evidence of global warming impact on the evolution of the Hadley Circulation in ECMWF centennial reanalyses}},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{DErrico2015,
author = {D'Errico, Miriam and Cagnazzo, Chiara and Fogli, Pier Giuseppe and Lau, William K. M. and Hardenberg, Jost and Fierli, Federico and Cherchi, Annalisa},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD023346},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {8712--8723},
title = {{Indian monsoon and the elevated-heat-pump mechanism in a coupled aerosol–climate model}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015JD023346},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{DOdorico2018,
abstract = {Water availability is a major factor constraining humanity's ability to meet the future food and energy needs of a growing and increasingly affluent human population. Water plays an important role in the production of energy, including renewable energy sources and the extraction of unconventional fossil fuels that are expected to become important players in future energy security. The emergent competition for water between the food and energy systems is increasingly recognized in the concept of the “food‐energy‐water nexus.” The nexus between food and water is made even more complex by the globalization of agriculture and rapid growth in food trade, which results in a massive virtual transfer of water among regions and plays an important role in the food and water security of some regions. This review explores multiple components of the food‐energy‐water nexus and highlights possible approaches that could be used to meet food and energy security with the limited renewable water resources of the planet. Despite clear tensions inherent in meeting the growing and changing demand for food and energy in the 21st century, the inherent linkages among food, water, and energy systems can offer an opportunity for synergistic strategies aimed at resilient food, water, and energy security, such as the circular economy.},
author = {D'Odorico, Paolo and Davis, Kyle Frankel and Rosa, Lorenzo and Carr, Joel A. and Chiarelli, Davide and Dell'Angelo, Jampel and Gephart, Jessica and Macdonald, Graham K. and Seekell, David A. and Suweis, Samir and Rulli, Maria Cristina},
doi = {10.1029/2017RG000591},
issn = {19449208},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {Circular Economy,FEW Nexus,Food Security,Food-water Water Security,Water Sustainability},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {1--76},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The Global Food–Energy–Water Nexus}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2017RG000591},
volume = {56},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Doll2016,
abstract = {Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater–surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.},
author = {D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and G{\"{u}}ntner, Andreas and {M{\"{u}}ller Schmied}, Hannes and Wada, Yoshihide and Doll, P and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Guntner, A and Schmied, H Muller and Wada, Yoshihide and D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and G{\"{u}}ntner, Andreas and {M{\"{u}}ller Schmied}, Hannes and Wada, Yoshihide and Doll, P and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Guntner, A and Schmied, H Muller and Wada, Yoshihide and D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and G{\"{u}}ntner, Andreas and {M{\"{u}}ller Schmied}, Hannes and Wada, Yoshihide},
doi = {10.1007/s10712-015-9343-1},
isbn = {978-3-319-32449-4},
issn = {15730956},
journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
keywords = {Calibration,Climate data,Global hydrological model,Model uncertainty,Remote sensing data,Water abstraction},
number = {2},
pages = {195--221},
title = {{Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects}},
volume = {37},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Doll2009,
abstract = {Climate change will lead to significant changes of groundwater recharge and thus renewable groundwater resources. Using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP, the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and the number of affected people was computed for four climate scenarios by two climate models. Vulnerability of humans to decreased groundwater resources depends on both the degree of decrease and the sensitivity of the human system to the decrease. For each grid cell, a sensitivity index composed of a water scarcity indicator, an indicator for dependence of water supply on groundwater and the Human Development Index was quantified. Combining per cent groundwater recharge decrease with the sensitivity index, global maps of vulnerability to the impact of decreased groundwater recharge in the 2050s were derived. In the A2 (B2) emissions scenario, 18.4-19.3{\%} (16.1-18.1{\%}) of the global population of 10.7 (9.1) billion would be affected by groundwater recharge decreases of at least 10{\%}, and 4.8-5.7{\%} (3.8-3.8{\%}) of the global population would be in the two highest vulnerability classes. The highest vulnerabilities are found at the North African rim of the Mediterranean Sea, in southwestern Africa, in northeastern Brazil and in the central Andes, which are areas of moderate to high sensitivity. For most of the areas with high population density and high sensitivity, model results indicate that groundwater recharge is unlikely to decrease by more than 10{\%} until the 2050s. However, a fifth to a third of the population may be affected by a groundwater recharge increase of more than 10{\%}, with negative impacts in the case of shallow water tables. The spatial distribution of vulnerability, even at the continental scale, differs more strongly between the two climate models than between the two emissions scenarios. {\textcopyright} 2009 IOP Publishing Ltd.},
author = {D{\"{o}}ll, Petra},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035006},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,global,groundwater,scenario,sensitivity index,vulnerability},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {035006},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: A global-scale assessment}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035006 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035006/meta},
volume = {4},
year = {2009}
}
@article{doll2012impact,
author = {D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and Hoffmann-Dobrev, Heike and Portmann, Felix T and Siebert, Stefan and Eicker, Annette and Rodell, Matthew and Strassberg, Gil and Scanlon, B R},
doi = {10.1016/j.jog.2011.05.001},
journal = {Journal of Geodynamics},
pages = {143--156},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Impact of water withdrawals from groundwater and surface water on continental water storage variations}},
volume = {59},
year = {2012}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2014WR015595,
abstract = {Abstract Groundwater depletion (GWD) compromises crop production in major global agricultural areas and has negative ecological consequences. To derive GWD at the grid cell, country, and global levels, we applied a new version of the global hydrological model WaterGAP that simulates not only net groundwater abstractions and groundwater recharge from soils but also groundwater recharge from surface water bodies in dry regions. A large number of independent estimates of GWD as well as total water storage (TWS) trends determined from GRACE satellite data by three analysis centers were compared to model results. GWD and TWS trends are simulated best assuming that farmers in GWD areas irrigate at 70{\%} of optimal water requirement. India, United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China had the highest GWD rates in the first decade of the 21st century. On the Arabian Peninsula, in Libya, Egypt, Mali, Mozambique, and Mongolia, at least 30{\%} of the abstracted groundwater was taken from nonrenewable groundwater during this time period. The rate of global GWD has likely more than doubled since the period 1960–2000. Estimated GWD of 113 km3/yr during 2000–2009, corresponding to a sea level rise of 0.31 mm/yr, is much smaller than most previous estimates. About 15{\%} of the globally abstracted groundwater was taken from nonrenewable groundwater during this period. To monitor recent temporal dynamics of GWD and related water abstractions, GRACE data are best evaluated with a hydrological model that, like WaterGAP, simulates the impact of abstractions on water storage, but the low spatial resolution of GRACE remains a challenge.},
author = {D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and {M{\"{u}}ller Schmied}, Hannes and Schuh, Carina and Portmann, Felix T and Eicker, Annette and Doell, P and Schmied, H M and Schuh, Carina and Portmann, Felix T and Eicker, Annette and D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and {M{\"{u}}ller Schmied}, Hannes and Schuh, Carina and Portmann, Felix T and Eicker, Annette},
doi = {10.1002/2014WR015595},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {GRACE,global,groundwater,groundwater depletion,irrigation,water use},
number = {7},
pages = {5698--5720},
title = {{Global-scale assessment of groundwater depletion and related groundwater abstractions: Combining hydrological modeling with information from well observations and GRACE satellites}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014WR015595},
volume = {50},
year = {2014}
}
@article{DollSchmied2018,
abstract = {To support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the newHAPPI ensemble of20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models, WaterGAP and LPJmL, for assessing freshwater-related hazards and risks in worlds approximately 1.5 ◦Cand 2 ◦C warmer than pre-industrial. Quasi-stationary HAPPI simulations are better suited than transient CMIP-like simulations for assessing hazards at the two targeted long-term global warming (GW) levels. We analyzed seven hydrological hazard indicators that characterize freshwater-related hazards for humans, freshwater biota and vegetation. Using a strict definition for significant differences, we identified for all but one indicator that areas with either significantly wetter or drier conditions (calculated as percent changes from 2006–2015) are smaller in the 1.5 ◦C world. For example, 7 day high flow is projected to increase significantly on 11{\%} and 21{\%} of the global land area at 1.5 ◦Cand 2 ◦C, respectively. However, differences between hydrological hazards at the two GW levels are significant on less than 12{\%} of the area. GW affects a larger area and more people by increases—rather than by decreases—ofmean annual and 1-in-10 dry year streamflow, 7 day high flow, and groundwater recharge. The opposite is true for 7 day low flow, maximum snow storage, and soil moisture in the driest month of the growing period. Mean annual streamflow shows the lowest projected percent changes of all indicators. Among country groups, low income countries and lower middle income countries are most affected by decreased low flows and increased high flows, respectively, while high income countries are least affected by such changes. The incremental impact between 1.5 ◦Cand 2 ◦C on high flows would be felt most by low income and lower middle income countries, the effect on soil moisture and low flows most by high income countries.},
author = {D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and Trautmann, Tim and Gerten, Dieter and Schmied, Hannes M{\"{u}}ller and Ostberg, Sebastian and Saaed, Fahad and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab792},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,global warming level,global water resources,hazard,risk},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {044038},
title = {{Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab792},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Diaz2017,
author = {D{\'{i}}az, Leandro B. and Vera, Carolina S},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5031},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {aug},
pages = {681--695},
title = {{Austral summer precipitation interannual variability and trends over Southeastern South America in CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5031},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Diaz2018,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Large climate variations have been detected from paleoclimatic records in some regions of South America during the last 500 years. Among them, the Altiplano and the subtropical Andes regions exhibited wetter-than-normal conditions during the 17th century within the paleoclimatic period known as Little Ice Age (LIA). On the other hand, both regions experienced drier-than-normal conditions in the second part of the 20th century in association with the recent global warming period (GWP). This study provides an assessment of the ability of four models of the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3)/fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) experiments in reproducing those regional rainfall changes and the associated large-scale circulation features. Climate models can represent qualitatively the temperature changes observed in South America in both periods, LIA and GWP, as compared to the control run, but they do not properly describe the associated precipitation changes. However, they can simulate, in some extent, the large-scale circulation changes that previous works identified as important in driving the precipitation changes in both regions. Therefore, the assessment allows to detect the following changes in LIA (GWP): (a) equatorwards (polewards) displacement of the southern branch of the Hadley cell, in turn associated with wetter (drier) conditions in subtropical south America; (b) negative (positive) upper-level zonal wind changes related with positive (negative) December, January and February (DJF) rainfall changes in the Altiplano; and (c) positive (negative) low-level zonal wind changes associated to positive (negative) JJA rainfall changes in the subtropical Andes, being in turn related to hemispheric wind changes resembling a negative (positive) phase of the southern annular mode.},
author = {D{\'{i}}az, Leandro B. and Vera, Carolina S.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5449},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Altiplano,PMIP3/CMIP5 models,paleoclimatic records,subtropical Andes},
number = {6},
pages = {2638--2650},
title = {{South American precipitation changes simulated by PMIP3/CMIP5 models during the Little Ice Age and the recent global warming period}},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dacre2019JHydromet,
abstract = {Extreme precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones can lead to flooding if cyclones track over land. However, the dynamical mechanisms by which moist air is transported into cyclones is poorly understood. In this paper we analyze airflows within a climatology of cyclones in order to understand how cyclones redistribute moisture stored in the atmosphere. This analysis shows that within a cyclone's warm sector the cyclone-relative airflow is rearwards relative to the cyclone propagation direction. This low-level airflow (termed the feeder airstream) slows down when it reaches the cold front, resulting in moisture flux convergence and the formation of a band of high moisture content. One branch of the feeder airstream turns toward the cyclone center, supplying moisture to the base of the warm conveyor belt where it ascends and precipitation forms. The other branch turns away from the cyclone center exporting moisture from the cyclone. As the cyclone travels, this export results in a filament of high moisture content marking the track of the cyclone (often used to identify atmospheric rivers). We find that both cyclone precipitation and water vapor transport increase when moisture in the feeder airstream increases, thus explaining the link between atmospheric rivers and the precipitation associated with warm conveyor belt ascent. Atmospheric moisture budgets calculated as cyclones pass over fixed domains relative to the cyclone tracks show that continuous evaporation of moisture in the precyclone environment moistens the feeder airstream. Evaporation behind the cold front acts to moisten the atmosphere in the wake of the cyclone passage, potentially preconditioning the environment for subsequent cyclone development.},
author = {Dacre, H. F. and Mart{\'{i}}nez-Alvarado, O. and Mbengue, C. O.},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-18-0175.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1183--1196},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Linking Atmospheric Rivers and Warm Conveyor Belt Airflows}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0175.1},
volume = {20},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dagan2017,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} Large eddy simulations (LESs) with bin microphysics are used here to study cloud fields' sensitivity to changes in aerosol loading and the time evolution of this response. Similarly to the known response of a single cloud, we show that the mean field properties change in a non-monotonic trend, with an optimum aerosol concentration for which the field reaches its maximal water mass or rain yield. This trend is a result of competition between processes that encourage cloud development versus those that suppress it. However, another layer of complexity is added when considering clouds' impact on the field's thermodynamic properties and how this is dependent on aerosol loading. Under polluted conditions, rain is suppressed and the non-precipitating clouds act to increase atmospheric instability. This results in warming of the lower part of the cloudy layer (in which there is net condensation) and cooling of the upper part (net evaporation). Evaporation at the upper part of the cloudy layer in the polluted simulations raises humidity at these levels and thus amplifies the development of the next generation of clouds (preconditioning effect). On the other hand, under clean conditions, the precipitating clouds drive net warming of the cloudy layer and net cooling of the sub-cloud layer due to rain evaporation. These two effects act to stabilize the atmospheric boundary layer with time (consumption of the instability). The evolution of the field's thermodynamic properties affects the cloud properties in return, as shown by the migration of the optimal aerosol concentration toward higher values.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Dagan, Guy and Koren, Ilan and Altaratz, Orit and Heiblum, Reuven H.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-17-7435-2017},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {7435--7444},
title = {{Time-dependent, non-monotonic response of warm convective cloud fields to changes in aerosol loading}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/7435/2017/},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dagan2019,
abstract = {Abstract Global mean precipitation changes due to climate change were previously shown to be relatively small and well constrained by the energy budget. However, local precipitation changes can be much more significant. In this paper we propose that for large enough scales, for which the water budget is closed (precipitation [P] roughly equals evaporation [E]), changes in P approach the small global mean value. However, for smaller scales, for which P and E are not necessarily equal and convergence of water vapor still plays a role, changes in P could be much larger due to dynamical contributions. Using 40 years of two reanalysis data sets, 39 CMIP5 models and additional numerical simulations, we identify the scale of transition in the importance of the different terms in the water budget to precipitation to be {\~{}}3500-4000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change.},
author = {Dagan, Guy and Stier, Philip and Watson‐Parris, Duncan},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084173},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Evaporation,Precipitation,Spatial scales,climate-change},
month = {sep},
number = {17-18},
pages = {10504--10511},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Analysis of the Atmospheric Water Budget for Elucidating the Spatial Scale of Precipitation Changes Under Climate Change}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL084173},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dagan2020,
abstract = {Global mean precipitation is expected to increase with increasing temperatures, a process which is fairly well understood. In contrast, local precipitation changes, which are key for society and ecosystems, demonstrate a large spread in predictions by climate models, can be of both signs and have much larger magnitude than the global mean change. Previously, two top-down approaches to constrain precipitation changes were proposed, using either the atmospheric water or energy budget. Here, using an ensemble of 27 climate models, we study the relative importance of these two budgetary constraints and present analysis of the spatial scales at which they hold. We show that specific geographical locations are more constrained by either one of the budgets and that the combination of water and energy budgets provides a significantly stronger constraint on the spatial scale of precipitation changes under anthropogenic climate change (on average about 3000 km, above which changes in precipitation approach the global mean change). These results could also provide an objective way to define the scale of ‘regional' climate change.},
author = {Dagan, Guy and Stier, Philip},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-020-00137-8},
issn = {23973722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
number = {1},
pages = {34},
title = {{Constraint on precipitation response to climate change by combination of atmospheric energy and water budgets}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00137-8},
volume = {3},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Dagan2019GRL,
abstract = {Precipitation plays a crucial role in the Earth's energy balance, the water‐cycle and the global atmospheric‐circulation. Aerosols, by direct interaction with radiation and by serving as cloud condensation nuclei, may affect clouds and rain formation. This effect can be examined in terms of energetic constraints, i.e. any aerosol‐driven diabatic heating/cooling of the atmosphere will have to be balanced by changes in precipitation, radiative‐fluxes or divergence of dry‐static‐energy. Using an aqua‐planet GCM we show that tropical and extra‐tropical precipitation have contrasting responses to aerosol perturbations. This behaviour can be explained by contrasting ability of the atmosphere to diverge excess dry static‐energy in the two different regions. It is shown that atmospheric heating in the tropics leads to large‐scale thermally‐driven circulation and a large increase in precipitation, whilst the excess energy from heating in the extra‐tropics, is constrained due to the effect of the Coriolis force, causing the precipitation to decrease.},
author = {Dagan, Guy and Stier, Philip and Watson‐Parris, Duncan},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083479},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Aerosol,Energy budget,Extra‐Precipitation,Tropics},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {7828--7837},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Contrasting Response of Precipitation to Aerosol Perturbation in the Tropics and Extratropics Explained by Energy Budget Considerations}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083479 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083479},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dagon2016,
abstract = {AbstractSolar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a form of geoengineering to reduce the climate effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Modeling studies have concluded that SRM, through a reduction in total solar irradiance by approximately 2{\%}, roughly compensates for global mean temperature changes from a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. This paper examines the impact of SRM on the terrestrial hydrologic cycle using the Community Land Model, version 4, coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, with reductions in solar radiation relative to simulations with present-day and elevated CO2 concentrations. There are significant global and regional impacts due to vegetation–climate interactions that are not compensated when reductions in total solar irradiance of 1{\%}, 2{\%}, and 3{\%} are imposed on top of a doubling of present-day CO2 concentrations. Water cycling slows down under SRM, including decreases in global mean precipitation and evapotranspiration. Changes in run...},
author = {Dagon, Katherine and Schrag, Daniel P.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0472.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-land interaction,Climate change,Evapotranspiration,Hydrologic cycle,Land surface model,Models and modeling,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Regional effects},
number = {7},
pages = {2635--2650},
title = {{Exploring the effects of solar radiation management on water cycling in a coupled land-atmosphere model}},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{dai2018climate,
author = {Dai, Aiguo and Zhao, Tianbao and Chen, Jiao},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0101-6},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {301--312},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Climate Change and Drought: a Precipitation and Evaporation Perspective}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-018-0101-6},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dai2021,
abstract = {Global hydroclimatic changes from 1950 to 2018 are analyzed using updated data of land precipitation, streamflow, and an improved form of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The historical changes are then compared with climate model-simulated response to external forcing to determine how much of the recent change is forced response. It is found that precipitation has increased from 1950 to 2018 over mid-high latitude Eurasia, most North America, Southeast South America, and Northwest Australia, while it has decreased over most Africa, eastern Australia, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and parts of East Asia, central South America, and the Pacific coasts of Canada. Streamflow records largely confirm these precipitation changes. The wetting trend over Northwest Australia and Southeast South America is most pronounced in austral summer while the drying over Africa and wetting trend over mid-high latitude Eurasia are seen in all seasons. Coupled with the drying caused by rising surface temperatures, these precipitation changes have greatly increased the risk of drought over Africa, southern Europe, East Asia, eastern Australia, Northwest Canada, and southern Brazil. Global land precipitation and continental freshwater discharge show large interannual and inter-decadal variations, with negative anomalies during El Ni{\~{n}}o and following major volcanic eruptions in 1963, 1982, and 1991; whereas their decadal variations are correlated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) with IPO's warm phase associated with low land precipitation and continental discharge. The IPO and Atlantic multidecadal variability also dominate multidecadal variations in land aridity, accounting for 90 {\%} of the multidecadal variance. CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean shows decreased precipitation and runoff and increased risk of drought during 1950–2018 over Southwest North America, Central America, northern and central South America (including the Amazon), southern and West Africa, the Mediterranean region, and Southeast Asia; while the northern mid-high latitudes, Southeast South America, and Northwest Australia see increased precipitation and runoff. The consistent spatial patterns between the observed changes and the model-simulated response suggest that many of the observed drying and wetting trends since 1950 may have resulted at least partly from historical external forcing. However, the drying over Southeast Asia and wetting over Northwest Australia are absent in the 21st century projections.},
author = {Dai, Aiguo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-021-05684-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jun},
number = {11-12},
pages = {4027--4049},
title = {{Hydroclimatic trends during 1950–2018 over global land}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05684-1 https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-021-05684-1},
volume = {56},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Dai2018,
abstract = {It is known that internal climate variability (ICV) can influence trends seen in observations and individual model simulations over a period of decades. This makes it difficult to quantify the forced response to external forcing. Here we analyze two large ensembles of simulations from 1950 to 2100 by two fully-coupled climate models, namely the CESM1 and CanESM2, to quantify ICV's influences on estimated trends in annual surface air temperature (Tas) and precipitation (P) over different time periods. Results show that the observed trends since 1979 in global-mean Tas and P are within the spread of the CESM1-simulated trends while the CanESM2 overestimates the historical changes, likely due to its deficiencies in simulating historical non-CO2 forcing. Both models show considerable spreads in the Tas and P trends among the individual simulations, and the spreads decrease rapidly as the record length increases to about 40 (50) years for global-mean Tas (P). Because of ICV, local and regional P trends may remain statistically insignificant and differ greatly among individual model simulations over most of the globe until the later part of the twenty-first century even under a high emissions scenario, while local Tas trends since 1979 are already statistically significant over many low-latitude regions and are projected to become significant over most of the globe by the 2030s. The largest influences of ICV come from the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and polar sea ice. In contrast to the realization-dependent ICV, the forced Tas response to external forcing has a temporal evolution that is similar over most of the globe (except its amplitude). For annual precipitation, however, the temporal evolution of the forced response is similar (opposite) to that of Tas over many mid-high latitude areas and the ITCZ (subtropical regions), but close to zero over the transition zones between the regions with positive and negative trends. The ICV in the transient climate change simulations is slightly larger than that in the control run for P (and other related variables such as water vapor), but similar for Tas. Thus, the ICV for P from a control run may need to be scaled up in detection and attribution analyses.},
author = {Dai, Aiguo and Bloecker, Christine E.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4132-4},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CESM1,CanESM2,Ensemble simulations,Internal Precipitation,Temperature,Trends,canesm2,cesm1,ensemble simulations,temperature,trends},
number = {1-2},
pages = {289--306},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4132-4 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4132-4},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Dai2016a,
abstract = {Summary Streamflow trends from 1948 to 2012 are statistically significant only in 55 (27.5{\%}, 29 negative vs. 26 positive) of the world's largest 200 rivers. Continental runoff decreased slightly from 1949 to 1993, it then recovered to slightly above the 1950–1980 mean. The streamflow and runoff changes are consistent with precipitation records, and they all show decreases from 1950 to 2012 over most Africa, East and South Asia, eastern Australia, the southeast and northwest United States; but increases over Argentina and Uruguay, central and northern Australia, the central and northeast United States, most of Europe, and Russia. These changes resulted partly from the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and other climate variations, with low (high) land precipitation and runoff during El Ni{\~{n}}o (La Ni{\~{n}}a) events. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, models project mean streamflow to increase in the 21st century by 5{\%}–80{\%} over most of Asia, northern Europe, northern and eastern North America, central and eastern Africa, southeastern and northwestern South America, and central and northern Australia; but decrease by 5{\%}–50{\%} over the Mediterranean region, southwestern North America and Central America, northern and southern South America, southern Africa, and southwestern and southeastern Australia. The projected change patterns in precipitation, runoff, and streamflow are similar, with a fairly constant runoff ratio during the 21st century.},
author = {Dai, Aiguo},
booktitle = {Terrestrial Water Cycle and Climate Change},
chapter = {2},
doi = {10.1002/9781118971772.ch2},
editor = {Tang, Qiuhong and Oki, Taikan},
isbn = {9781118971772},
month = {sep},
pages = {17--37},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},
title = {{Historical and Future Changes in Streamflow and Continental Runoff}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/9781118971772.ch2},
volume = {221},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Dallmeyer2020,
abstract = {Abstract. Enhanced summer insolation during the early and mid-Holocene drove increased precipitation and widespread expansion of vegetation across the Sahara during the African humid period (AHP). While changes in atmospheric dynamics during this time have been a major focus of palaeoclimate modelling efforts, the transient nature of the shift back to the modern desert state at the end of this period is less well understood. Reconstructions reveal a spatially and temporally complex end of the AHP, with an earlier end in the north than in the south and in the east than in the west. Some records suggest a rather abrupt end, whereas others indicate a gradual decline in moisture availability. Here we investigate the end of the AHP based on a transient simulation of the last 7850 years with the comprehensive Earth system model MPI-ESM1.2. The model largely reproduces the time-transgressive end of the AHP evident in proxy data, and it indicates that it is due to the regionally varying dynamical controls on precipitation. The impact of the main rain-bringing systems, i.e. the summer monsoon and extratropical troughs, varies spatially, leading to heterogeneous seasonal rainfall cycles that impose regionally different responses to the Holocene insolation decrease. An increase in extratropical troughs that interact with the tropical mean flow and transport moisture to the western Sahara during the mid-Holocene delays the end of the AHP in that region. Along the coast, this interaction maintains humid conditions for a longer time than further inland. Drying in this area occurs when this interaction becomes too weak to sustain precipitation. In the lower latitudes of west Africa, where the rainfall is only influenced by the summer monsoon dynamics, the end of the AHP coincides with the retreat of the monsoonal rain belt. The model results clearly demonstrate that non-monsoonal dynamics can also play an important role in forming the precipitation signal and should therefore not be neglected in analyses of north African rainfall trends.},
author = {Dallmeyer, Anne and Claussen, Martin and Lorenz, Stephan J. and Shanahan, Timothy},
doi = {10.5194/cp-16-117-2020},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {117--140},
title = {{The end of the African humid period as seen by a transient comprehensive Earth system model simulation of the last 8000 years}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/117/2020/},
volume = {16},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Danabasoglu2020a,
abstract = {An overview of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long preindustrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low-top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high-top” (130 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low-latitude precipitation and shortwave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; better El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation-related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low- and high-top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1–5.3 °C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2's transient climate response of 1.9–2.0 °C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and they represent CESM2's contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.},
author = {Danabasoglu, G. and Lamarque, J. F. and Bacmeister, J. and Bailey, D. A. and DuVivier, A. K. and Edwards, J. and Emmons, L. K. and Fasullo, J. and Garcia, R. and Gettelman, A. and Hannay, C. and Holland, M. M. and Large, W. G. and Lauritzen, P. H. and Lawrence, D. M. and Lenaerts, J. T.M. and Lindsay, K. and Lipscomb, W. H. and Mills, M. J. and Neale, R. and Oleson, K. W. and Otto-Bliesner, B. and Phillips, A. S. and Sacks, W. and Tilmes, S. and van Kampenhout, L. and Vertenstein, M. and Bertini, A. and Dennis, J. and Deser, C. and Fischer, C. and Fox-Kemper, B. and Kay, J. E. and Kinnison, D. and Kushner, P. J. and Larson, V. E. and Long, M. C. and Mickelson, S. and Moore, J. K. and Nienhouse, E. and Polvani, L. and Rasch, P. J. and Strand, W. G.},
doi = {10.1029/2019MS001916},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {Community Earth System Model (CESM),coupled model development and evaluation,global coupled Earth system modeling,preindustrial and historical simulations},
number = {2},
pages = {1--35},
title = {{The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)}},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Davidson2014,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}It has been frequently stated, but without provision of supporting evidence, that the world has lost 50{\%} of its wetlands (or 50{\%} since 1900 AD). This review of 189 reports of change in wetland area finds that the reported long-term loss of natural wetlands averages between 54–57{\%} but loss may have been as high as 87{\%} since 1700 AD. There has been a much (3.7 times) faster rate of wetland loss during the 20th and early 21st centuries, with a loss of 64–71{\%} of wetlands since 1900 AD. Losses have been larger and faster for inland than coastal natural wetlands. Although the rate of wetland loss in Europe has slowed, and in North America has remained low since the 1980s, the rate has remained high in Asia, where large-scale and rapid conversion of coastal and inland natural wetlands is continuing. It is unclear whether the investment by national governments in the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands has influenced these rates of loss. There is a need to improve the knowledge of change in wetland areas worldwide, particularly for Africa, the Neotropics and Oceania, and to improve the consistency of data on change in wetland areas in published papers and reports.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Davidson, Nick C.},
doi = {10.1071/MF14173},
issn = {1323-1650},
journal = {Marine and Freshwater Research},
keywords = {Ramsar Convention,coastal,conversion,inland,loss},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {934},
publisher = {CSIRO},
title = {{How much wetland has the world lost? Long-term and recent trends in global wetland area}},
url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=MF14173},
volume = {65},
year = {2014}
}
@article{dff18,
abstract = {Herein we review estimates of global and regional wetland area from 'bottom-up' approaches of site or national wetland inventories and 'top-down' approaches from global mapping and remote sensing. The trend for increasing wetland extent reported in the literature over time is a consequence of improved mapping technologies and methods rather than a real increase in wetland area, because a continuing trend for natural wetland loss and conversion is documented over the same time period. The most recent high-resolution estimate of global wetland area is in excess of 12.1×106km2, of which 54{\%} is permanently inundated and 46{\%} is temporarily inundated. Globally, 92.8{\%} of continental wetland area is inland and only 7.2{\%} is coastal. Regionally, the largest wetland areas are in Asia (31.8{\%}), North America (27.1{\%}) and Latin America and the Caribbean (Neotropics; 15.8{\%}), with smaller areas in Europe (12.5{\%}), Africa (9.9{\%}) and Oceania (2.9{\%}). It is likely that estimates of global wetland area published to date persist in underestimating the true wetland area. The 'grand challenge' of a global inventory integrating all types of permanent and temporary wetlands at high spatial resolution has yet to be fully achieved.},
author = {Davidson, N. C. and Fluet-Chouinard, E. and Finlayson, C. M.},
doi = {10.1071/MF17019},
issn = {13231650},
journal = {Marine and Freshwater Research},
keywords = {Ramsar Convention,inventory,remote sensing,wetland area},
number = {4},
pages = {620--627},
title = {{Global extent and distribution of wetlands: trends and issues. Marine and Freshwater Research}},
volume = {69},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Davie2013,
abstract = {Future changes in runoff can have important impli- cations for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter- comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Con- centration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a base- line period (1981–2010) to the future (2070–2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome mod- els differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. How- ever, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected dry- ing, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, al- though there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distri- bution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consis- tent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projec- tions from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change pro- jections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.},
author = {Davie, J. C.S. and Falloon, P. D. and Kahana, R. and Dankers, R. and Betts, R. and Portmann, F. T. and Wisser, D. and Clark, D. B. and Ito, A. and Masaki, Y. and Nishina, K. and Fekete, B. and Tessler, Z. and Wada, Y. and Liu, X. and Tang, Q. and Hagemann, S. and Stacke, T. and Pavlick, R. and Schaphoff, S. and Gosling, S. N. and Franssen, W. and Arnell, N.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-4-359-2013},
isbn = {2190-4987},
issn = {21904979},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {2},
pages = {359--374},
title = {{Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP}},
volume = {4},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Davini2017,
abstract = {The numerical simulation of atmospheric blocking, in particular over the Euro‐Atlantic region, still represents a main concern for the climate modeling community. We discuss the Northern Hemisphere winter...},
author = {Davini, P. and Corti, S. and D'Andrea, F. and Rivi{\`{e}}re, G. and von Hardenberg, J.},
doi = {10.1002/2017MS001082},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {EC-Earth,GCMs,high-},
number = {7},
pages = {2615--2634},
title = {{Improved Winter European Atmospheric Blocking Frequencies in High-Resolution Global Climate Simulations}},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Davini2016,
abstract = {AbstractThe correct simulation of midlatitude atmospheric blocking has always been a main concern since the earliest days of numerical modeling of Earth?s atmosphere. To this day blocking represents a considerable source of error for general circulation models from both a numerical weather prediction and a climate perspective. In the present work, 20 years of global climate model (GCM) developments are analyzed from the special point of view of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking simulation. Making use of a series of equivalent metrics, three generations of GCMs are compared. This encompasses a total of 95 climate models, many of which are different?successive?versions of the same model. Results from model intercomparison projects AMIP1 (1992), CMIP3 (2007), and CMIP5 (2012) are taken into consideration. Although large improvements are seen over the Pacific Ocean, only minor advancements have been achieved over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Some of the most recent GCMs still exhibit the same negative bias as 20 years ago in this region, associated with large geopotential height systematic errors. Some individual models, nevertheless, have improved and do show good performances in both sectors. Negligible differences emerge among ocean-coupled or atmosphere-only simulations, suggesting weak relevance of sea surface temperature biases. Conversely, increased horizontal resolution seems to be able to alleviate the Euro-Atlantic blocking bias.},
author = {Davini, Paolo and D'Andrea, Fabio},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0242.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Blocking,Climate models,Model comparison,Planetary waves,Wave breaking},
number = {24},
pages = {8823--8840},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking representation in global climate models: Twenty years of improvements?}},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Davini2020,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Davini, Paolo and D'Andrea, Fabio},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0862.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {23},
pages = {10021--10038},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/23/jcliD190862.xml},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Davis2016,
abstract = {Model simulations of future climates predict a poleward expansion of subtropical arid climates at the edges of earth's tropical belt, which would have significant environmental and societal impacts. This expansion may be related to the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edges, where subsidence stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses precipitation. Understanding the primary drivers of tropical expansion is hampered by the myriad forcing agents in most model projections of future climate. While many previous studies have examined the response of idealized models to simplified climate forcings and the response of comprehensive climate models to more complex climate forcings, none have examined how comprehensive climate models respond to simplified climate forcings. To shed light on robust processes associated with tropical expansion, here we examine how the tropical belt width, as measured by the Hadley cell edges, responds to simplified forcings in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The tropical belt expands in response to a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and contracts in response to a reduction in the solar constant, with a range of a factor of three in the response among nine models. Models with more surface warming and an overall stronger temperature response to quadrupled carbon dioxide exhibit greater tropical expansion, a robust result in spite of intermodel differences in the mean Hadley cell width, parameterizations, and numerical schemes. Under a scenario where the solar constant is reduced to offset an instantaneous quadrupling of carbon dioxide, the Hadley cells remain at their preindustrial width, despite the residual stratospheric cooling associated with elevated carbon dioxide levels. Quadrupled carbon dioxide produces greater tropical belt expansion in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. This expansion is strongest in austral summer and autumn. Ozone depletion has been argued to cause this pattern of changes in observations and model experiments, but the results here indicate that seasonally- and hemispherically-asymmetric tropical expansion can be a basic response of the general circulation to climate forcings.},
author = {Davis, Nicholas A. and Seidel, Dian J. and Birner, Thomas and Davis, Sean M. and Tilmes, Simone},
doi = {10.5194/acp-16-10083-2016},
issn = {16807324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {15},
pages = {10083--10095},
title = {{Changes in the width of the tropical belt due to simple radiative forcing changes in the GeoMIP simulations}},
volume = {16},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Day2018a,
abstract = {The topography and continental configuration of East Asia favor the year-round existence of storm tracks that extend thousands of kilometers from China into the northwestern Pacific Ocean, producing zonally elongated patterns of rainfall that we call "frontal rain events." In spring and early summer (known as "Meiyu Season"), frontal rainfall intensifies and shifts northward during a series of stages collectively known as the East Asian summer monsoon. Using a technique called the Frontal Rain Event Detection Algorithm, we create a daily catalog of all frontal rain events in east China during 1951-2007, quantify their attributes, and classify all rainfall on each day as either frontal, resulting from large-scale convergence, or nonfrontal, produced by local buoyancy, topography, or typhoons. Our climatology shows that the East Asian summer monsoon consists of a series of coupled changes in frontal rain event frequency, latitude, and daily accumulation. Furthermore, decadal changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall in east China are overwhelmingly due to changes in frontal rainfall. We attribute the "South Flood-North Drought" pattern observed beginning in the 1980s to changes in the frequency of frontal rain events, while the years 1994-2007 witnessed an uptick in event daily accumulation relative to the rest of the study years. This particular signature may reflect the relative impacts of global warming, aerosol loading, and natural variability on regional rainfall, potentially via shifting the East Asian jet stream.},
author = {Day, Jesse A and Fung, Inez and Liu, Weihan},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1715386115},
issn = {1091-6490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {East Asian monsoon,Meiyu front,monsoons,new methods,rainfall},
month = {feb},
number = {9},
pages = {2016--2021},
pmid = {29440414},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29440414 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC5834684},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{DeGraaf2019,
abstract = {Groundwater is the world's largest freshwater resource and is critically important for irrigation, and hence for global food security1–3. Already, unsustainable groundwater pumping exceeds recharge from precipitation and rivers4, leading to substantial drops in the levels of groundwater and losses of groundwater from its storage, especially in intensively irrigated regions5–7. When groundwater levels drop, discharges from groundwater to streams decline, reverse in direction or even stop completely, thereby decreasing streamflow, with potentially devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems. Here we link declines in the levels of groundwater that result from groundwater pumping to decreases in streamflow globally, and estimate where and when environmentally critical streamflows—which are required to maintain healthy ecosystems—will no longer be sustained. We estimate that, by 2050, environmental flow limits will be reached for approximately 42 to 79 per cent of the watersheds in which there is groundwater pumping worldwide, and that this will generally occur before substantial losses in groundwater storage are experienced. Only a small decline in groundwater level is needed to affect streamflow, making our estimates uncertain for streams near a transition to reversed groundwater discharge. However, for many areas, groundwater pumping rates are high and environmental flow limits are known to be severely exceeded. Compared to surface-water use, the effects of groundwater pumping are markedly delayed. Our results thus reveal the current and future environmental legacy of groundwater use.},
author = {de Graaf, Inge E M and Gleeson, Tom and van Beek, L P H and Sutanudjaja, Edwin H and Bierkens, Marc F P},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1594-4},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7776},
pages = {90--94},
title = {{Environmental flow limits to global groundwater pumping}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1594-4},
volume = {574},
year = {2019}
}
@article{DeGraaf2017,
abstract = {Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of freshwater to satisfy human water needs. Moreover, groundwater buffers variable precipitation rates over time, thereby effectively sustaining river flows in times of droughts and evaporation in areas with shallow water tables. In this study, building on previous work, we simulate groundwater head fluctuations and groundwater storage changes in both confined and unconfined aquifer systems using a global-scale high-resolution (5′) groundwater model by deriving new estimates of the distribution and thickness of confining layers. Inclusion of confined aquifer systems (estimated 6–20{\%} of the total aquifer area) improves estimates of timing and amplitude of groundwater head fluctuations and changes groundwater flow paths and groundwater-surface water interaction rates. Groundwater flow paths within confining layers are shorter than paths in the underlying aquifer, while flows within the confined aquifer can get disconnected from the local drainage system due to the low conductivity of the confining layer. Lateral groundwater flows between basins are significant in the model, especially for areas with (partially) confined aquifers were long flow paths crossing catchment boundaries are simulated, thereby supporting water budgets of neighboring catchments or aquifer systems. The developed two-layer transient groundwater model is used to identify hot-spots of groundwater depletion. Global groundwater depletion is estimated as 7013  km3 (137  km3y−1) over 1960–2010, which is consistent with estimates of previous studies.},
author = {de Graaf, Inge E M and van Beek, Rens L P H and Gleeson, Tom and Moosdorf, Nils and Schmitz, Oliver and Sutanudjaja, Edwin H and Bierkens, Marc F P},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.01.011},
issn = {0309-1708},
journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
pages = {53--67},
title = {{A global-scale two-layer transient groundwater model: Development and application to groundwater depletion}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030917081630656X},
volume = {102},
year = {2017}
}
@article{DeKauwe2013,
abstract = {Predicted responses of transpiration to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2 ) are highly variable amongst process-based models. To better understand and constrain this variability amongst models, we conducted an intercomparison of 11 ecosystem models applied to data from two forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments at Duke University and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We analysed model structures to identify the key underlying assumptions causing differences in model predictions of transpiration and canopy water use efficiency. We then compared the models against data to identify model assumptions that are incorrect or are large sources of uncertainty. We found that model-to-model and model-to-observations differences resulted from four key sets of assumptions, namely (i) the nature of the stomatal response to elevated CO2 (coupling between photosynthesis and stomata was supported by the data); (ii) the roles of the leaf and atmospheric boundary layer (models which assumed multiple conductance terms in series predicted more decoupled fluxes than observed at the broadleaf site); (iii) the treatment of canopy interception (large intermodel variability, 2-15{\%}); and (iv) the impact of soil moisture stress (process uncertainty in how models limit carbon and water fluxes during moisture stress). Overall, model predictions of the CO2 effect on WUE were reasonable (intermodel mu = approximately 28{\%} +/- 10{\%}) compared to the observations (mu = approximately 30{\%} +/- 13{\%}) at the well-coupled coniferous site (Duke), but poor (intermodel mu = approximately 24{\%} +/- 6{\%}; observations mu = approximately 38{\%} +/- 7{\%}) at the broadleaf site (Oak Ridge). The study yields a framework for analysing and interpreting model predictions of transpiration responses to eCO2 , and highlights key improvements to these types of models.},
author = {{De Kauwe}, Martin G. and Medlyn, Belinda E. and Zaehle, S{\"{o}}nke and Walker, Anthony P. and Dietze, Michael C. and Hickler, Thomas and Jain, Atul K. and Luo, Yiqi and Parton, William J. and Prentice, I. Colin and Smith, Benjamin and Thornton, Peter E. and Wang, Shusen and Wang, Ying-Ping and W{\aa}rlind, David and Weng, Ensheng and Crous, Kristine Y. and Ellsworth, David S. and Hanson, Paul J. and {Seok Kim}, Hyun and Warren, Jeffrey M. and Oren, Ram and Norby, Richard J.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.12164},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {CO2 fertilization,Climate change,Elevated CO2,FACE,Models,Plant physiology,Stomatal conductance,Water},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1759--1779},
title = {{Forest water use and water use efficiency at elevated CO2: a model-data intercomparison at two contrasting temperate forest FACE sites}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12164},
volume = {19},
year = {2013}
}
@article{de_Vrese2016GRL,
abstract = {Irrigation is not only vital for global food security but also constitutes an anthropogenic land use change, known to have strong effects on local hydrological and energy cycles. Using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model, we show that related impacts are not confined regionally but that possibly as much as 40{\%} of the present-day precipitation in some of the arid regions in Eastern Africa are related to irrigation-based agriculture in Asia. Irrigation in South Asia also substantially influences the climate throughout Southeast Asia and China via the advection of water vapor and by altering the Asian monsoon. The simulated impact of irrigation on remote regions is sensitive to the magnitude of the irrigation-induced moisture flux. Therefore, it is likely that a future extension or decline of irrigated areas due to increasing food demand or declining fresh water resources will also affect precipitation and temperatures in remote regions.},
annote = {irrigation in Asia may increase precipitation in Africa due to increased advection of moisture in the atmosphere},
author = {{De Vrese}, Philipp and Hagemann, Stefan and Claussen, Martin},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL068146},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate modeling},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {3737--3745},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Asian irrigation, African rain: Remote impacts of irrigation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2016gl068146},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{DeAngelis2016,
abstract = {In the current generation of climate models, the projected increase in global precipitation over the 21st century ranges from 2{\%} to 10{\%} under a high‐emission scenario. Some of this uncertainty can be traced to the rapid response to carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing. We analyze an ensemble of simulations to better understand model spread in this rapid response. A substantial amount is linked to how the land surface partitions a change in latent versus sensible heat flux in response to the CO2‐induced radiative perturbation; a larger increase in sensible heat results in a larger decrease in global precipitation. Model differences in the land surface response appear to be strongly related to the vegetation response to increased CO2, specifically, the closure of leaf stomata. Future research should thus focus on evaluation of the vegetation physiological response, including stomatal conductance parameterizations, for the purpose of constraining the fast response of Earth's hydrologic cycle to CO2 forcing.},
author = {DeAngelis, Anthony M. and Qu, Xin and Hall, Alex},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071392},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CO2forcing,fast response,model spread,precipitation,stomatal response,vegetation schemes},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {12550--12559},
title = {{Importance of vegetation processes for model spread in the fast precipitation response to CO2 forcing}},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Deangelis2015,
abstract = {Intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a key dimension of climate change, with substantial impacts on human and natural systems. A basic measure of hydrologic cycle intensification is the increase in global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming, which varies by a factor of three in current-generation climate models (about 1-3 per cent per kelvin). Part of the uncertainty may originate from atmosphere-radiation interactions. As the climate warms, increases in shortwave absorption from atmospheric moistening will suppress the precipitation increase. This occurs through a reduction of the latent heating increase required to maintain a balanced atmospheric energy budget. Using an ensemble of climate models, here we show that such models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of solar absorption to variations in atmospheric water vapour, leading to an underestimation in the shortwave absorption increase and an overestimation in the precipitation increase. This sensitivity also varies considerably among models due to differences in radiative transfer parameterizations, explaining a substantial portion of model spread in the precipitation response. Consequently, attaining accurate shortwave absorption responses through improvements to the radiative transfer schemes could reduce the spread in the predicted global precipitation increase per degree warming for the end of the twenty-first century by about 35 per cent, and reduce the estimated ensemble-mean increase in this quantity by almost 40 per cent.},
author = {DeAngelis, Anthony M. and Qu, Xin and Zelinka, Mark D. and Hall, Alex},
doi = {10.1038/nature15770},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7581},
pages = {249--253},
pmid = {26659186},
title = {{An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification}},
volume = {528},
year = {2015}
}
@article{DeBeer2016,
abstract = {Abstract. It is well established that the Earth's climate system has warmed significantly over the past several decades, and in association there have been widespread changes in various other Earth system components. This has been especially prevalent in the cold regions of the northern mid- to high latitudes. Examples of these changes can be found within the western and northern interior of Canada, a region that exemplifies the scientific and societal issues faced in many other similar parts of the world, and where impacts have global-scale consequences. This region has been the geographic focus of a large amount of previous research on changing climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological regimes in recent decades, while current initiatives such as the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) introduced in this review seek to further develop the understanding and diagnosis of this change and hence improve the capacity to predict future change. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the observed changes in various Earth system components and a concise and up-to-date regional picture of some of the temporal trends over the interior of western Canada since the mid- or late 20th century. The focus is on air temperature, precipitation, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers, permafrost, freshwater ice cover, and river discharge. Important long-term observational networks and data sets are described, and qualitative linkages among the changing components are highlighted. Increases in air temperature are the most notable changes within the domain, rising on average 2°C throughout the western interior since 1950. This increase in air temperature is associated with hydrologically important changes to precipitation regimes and unambiguous declines in snow cover depth, persistence, and spatial extent. Consequences of warming air temperatures have caused mountain glaciers to recede at all latitudes, permafrost to thaw at its southern limit, and active layers over permafrost to thicken. Despite these changes, integrated effects on stream flow are complex and often offsetting. Following a review of the current literature, we provide insight from a network of northern research catchments and other sites detailing how climate change confounds hydrological responses at smaller scales, and we recommend several priority research areas that will be a focus of continued work in CCRN. Given the complex interactions and process responses to climate change, it is argued that f{\ldots}},
author = {DeBeer, Chris M. and Wheater, Howard S. and Carey, Sean K. and Chun, Kwok P.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-20-1573-2016},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1573--1598},
title = {{Recent climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological changes over the interior of western Canada: a review and synthesis}},
volume = {20},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Debortoli2015,
author = {Debortoli, Nathan S. and Dubreuil, Vincent and Funatsu, Beatriz and Delahaye, Florian and de Oliveira, Carlos Henke and Rodrigues-Filho, Saulo and Saito, Carlos Hiroo and Fetter, Raquel},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1415-1},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {sep},
number = {2},
pages = {251--264},
title = {{Rainfall patterns in the Southern Amazon: a chronological perspective (1971–2010)}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-015-1415-1},
volume = {132},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Debortoli2016,
author = {Debortoli, Nathan S. and Dubreuil, Vincent and Hirota, Marina and Filho, Saulo Rodrigues and Lindoso, Diego P. and Nabucet, Jean},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4886},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
number = {6},
pages = {2889--2900},
title = {{Detecting deforestation impacts in Southern Amazonia rainfall using rain gauges}},
volume = {37},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Decharme2012,
abstract = {This study presents an off-line global evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP hydrological model including a two-way flood scheme. The flood dynamics is indeed described through the daily coupling between the ISBA land surface model and the TRIP river routing model including a prognostic flood reservoir. This reservoir fills when the river height exceeds the critical river bankfull height and vice versa. The flood interacts with the soil hydrology through infiltration and with the overlying atmosphere through precipitation interception and free water surface evaporation. The model is evaluated over a relatively long period (1986-2006) at 1 degrees resolution using the Princeton University 3-hourly atmospheric forcing. Four simulations are performed in order to assess the model sensitivity to the river bankfull height. The evaluation is made against satellite-derived global inundation estimates as well as in situ river discharge observations at 122 gauging stations. First, the results show a reasonable simulation of the global distribution of simulated floodplains when compared to satellite-derived estimates. At basin scale, the comparison reveals some discrepancies, both in terms of climatology and interannual variability, but the results remain acceptable for a simple large-scale model. In addition, the simulated river discharges are improved in term of efficiency scores for more than 50{\%} of the 122 stations and deteriorated for 4{\%} only. Two mechanisms mainly explain this positive impact: an increase in evapotranspiration that limits the annual discharge overestimation found when flooding is not taking into account and a smoothed river peak flow when the floodplain storage is significant. Finally, the sensitivity experiments suggest that the river bankfull depth is potentially tunable according to the river discharge scores to control the accuracy of the simulated flooded areas and its related increase in land surface evaporation. Such a tuning could be relevant at least for climate studies in which the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation are generally poorly represented.},
author = {Decharme, B. and Alkama, R. and Papa, F. and Faroux, S. and Douville, H. and Prigent, C.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-011-1054-9},
isbn = {0038201110549},
issn = {09307575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Evapotranspiration,Floodplains,Land surface hydrology,River discharges},
number = {7-8},
pages = {1389--1412},
title = {{Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP flood model}},
volume = {38},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Decharme2016,
abstract = {In this study we analyzed how an improved representation of snowpack processes and soil properties in the multilayer snow and soil schemes of the Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model impacts the simulation of soil temperature profiles over northern Eurasian regions. For this purpose, we refine ISBA's snow layering algorithm and propose a parameterization of snow albedo and snow compaction/densification adapted from the detailed Crocus snowpack model. We also include a dependency on soil organic carbon content for ISBA's hydraulic and thermal soil properties. First, changes in the snowpack parameterization are evaluated against snow depth, snow water equivalent, surface albedo, and soil temperature at a 10 cm depth observed at the Col de Porte field site in the French Alps. Next, the new model version including all of the changes is used over northern Eurasia to evaluate the model's ability to simulate the snow depth, the soil temperature profile, and the permafrost characteristics. The results confirm that an adequate simulation of snow layering and snow compaction/densification significantly impacts the snowpack characteristics and the soil temperature profile during winter, while the impact of the more accurate snow albedo computation is dominant during the spring. In summer, the accounting for the effect of soil organic carbon on hydraulic and thermal soil properties improves the simulation of the soil temperature profile. Finally, the results confirm that this last process strongly influences the simulation of the permafrost active layer thickness and its spatial distribution.},
author = {Decharme, Bertrand and Brun, Eric and Boone, Aaron and Delire, Christine and {Le Moigne}, Patrick and Morin, Samuel},
doi = {10.5194/tc-10-853-2016},
isbn = {1994-0424},
issn = {19940424},
journal = {Cryosphere},
number = {2},
pages = {853--877},
title = {{Impacts of snow and organic soils parameterization on northern Eurasian soil temperature profiles simulated by the ISBA land surface model}},
volume = {10},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Decharme2019,
abstract = {In recent years, significant efforts have been made to upgrade physical processes in the ISBA-CTRIP land surface system for use in fully coupled climate studies using the new CNRM-CM6 climate model or in stand-alone mode for global hydrological applications. Here we provide a thorough description of the new and improved processes implemented between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 versions of the model and evaluate the hydrology and thermal behavior of the model at the global scale. The soil scheme explicitly solves the one-dimensional Fourier and Darcy laws throughout the soil, accounting for the dependency of hydraulic and thermal soil properties on soil organic carbon content. The snowpack is represented using a multilayer detailed internal-process snow scheme. A two-way dynamic flood scheme is added in which floodplains interact with the soil hydrology through reinfiltration of floodwater and with the overlying atmosphere through surface free-water evaporation. Finally, groundwater processes are represented via a two-dimensional diffusive unconfined aquifer scheme allowing upward capillarity rises into the superficial soil. This new system has been evaluated in off-line mode using two different atmospheric forcings and against a large set of satellite estimates and in situ observations. While this study is not without weaknesses, its results show a real advance in modeling the physical aspects of the land surface with the new ISBA-CTRIP version compared to the previous system. This increases our confidence that the model is able to represent the land surface physical processes accurately across the globe and in turn contribute to several important scientific and societal issues.},
author = {Decharme, Bertrand and Delire, Christine and Minvielle, Marie and Colin, Jeanne and Vergnes, Jean Pierre and Alias, Antoinette and Saint-Martin, David and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland and S{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}si, St{\'{e}}phane and Voldoire, Aurore},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001545},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {hydrology,land surface processes,permafrost,snow},
number = {5},
pages = {1207--1252},
title = {{Recent Changes in the ISBA-CTRIP Land Surface System for Use in the CNRM-CM6 Climate Model and in Global Off-Line Hydrological Applications}},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dee2017,
abstract = {The spectral characteristics of paleoclimate observations spanning the last millennium suggest the presence of significant low-frequency (multi-decadal to centennial scale) variability in the climate system. Since this low-frequency climate variability is critical for climate predictions on societally-relevant scales, it is essential to establish whether General Circulation models (GCMs) are able to simulate it faithfully. Recent studies find large discrepancies between models and paleoclimate data at low frequencies, prompting concerns surrounding the ability of GCMs to predict long-term, high-magnitude variability under greenhouse forcing (Laepple and Huybers, 2014a, 2014b). However, efforts to ground climate model simulations directly in paleoclimate observations are impeded by fundamental differences between models and the proxy data: proxy systems often record a multivariate and/or nonlinear response to climate, precluding a direct comparison to GCM output. In this paper we bridge this gap via a forward proxy modeling approach, coupled to an isotope-enabled GCM. This allows us to disentangle the various contributions to signals embedded in ice cores, speleothem calcite, coral aragonite, tree-ring width, and tree-ring cellulose. The paper addresses the following questions: (1) do forward-modeled “pseudoproxies” exhibit variability comparable to proxy data? (2) if not, which processes alter the shape of the spectrum of simulated climate variability, and are these processes broadly distinguishable from climate? We apply our method to representative case studies, and broaden these insights with an analysis of the PAGES2k database (PAGES2K Consortium, 2013). We find that current proxy system models (PSMs) can help resolve model-data discrepancies on interannual to decadal timescales, but cannot account for the mismatch in variance on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. We conclude that, specific to this set of PSMs and isotope-enabled model, the paleoclimate record may exhibit larger low-frequency variability than GCMs currently simulate, indicative of incomplete physics and/or forcings.},
author = {Dee, S.G. and Parsons, L.A. and Loope, G.R. and Overpeck, J.T. and Ault, T.R. and Emile-Geay, J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2017.07.036},
issn = {0012821X},
journal = {Earth and Planetary Science Letters},
keywords = {climate variability,data-model comparison,general circulation models,paleoclimatology},
month = {oct},
pages = {34--46},
title = {{Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012821X1730420X},
volume = {476},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dee2020,
abstract = {The El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes global climate patterns yet its sensitivity to external climate forcing remains uncertain. Modeling studies suggest that ENSO is sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing associated with explosive volcanism but observational support for this effect remains ambiguous. Here, we used absolutely dated fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to gauge ENSO's response to large volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a weak tendency for an El Ni{\~{n}}o–like response in the year after an eruption, but this response is not statistically significant, nor does it appear after the outsized 1257 Samalas eruption. Our results suggest that those models showing a strong ENSO response to volcanic forcing may overestimate the size of the forced response relative to natural ENSO variability.},
author = {Dee, Sylvia G. and Cobb, Kim M. and Emile-Geay, Julien and Ault, Toby R. and Edwards, R. Lawrence and Cheng, Hai and Charles, Christopher D.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aax2000},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {mar},
number = {6485},
pages = {1477--1481},
pmid = {32217726},
title = {{No consistent ENSO response to volcanic forcing over the last millennium}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax2000},
volume = {367},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Defrance2017,
abstract = {The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agroecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.},
author = {Defrance, Dimitri and Ramstein, Gilles and Charbit, Sylvie and Vrac, Mathieu and Famien, Adjoua Mo{\"{i}}se and Sultan, Benjamin and Swingedouw, Didier and Dumas, Christophe and Gemenne, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Alvarez-Solas, Jorge and Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1619358114},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {jun},
number = {25},
pages = {6533--6538},
pmid = {28584113},
title = {{Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1619358114},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Deitch2017,
abstract = {The Mediterranean climate is principally characterized by warm, dry summers and cool, wet winters. However, there are large variations in precipitation dynamics in regions with this climate type. We examined the variability of precipitation within and among Mediterranean-climate areas, and classified the Mediterranean climate as wet, moderate, or dry based on annual precipitation; and strongly, moderately, or weakly seasonal based on percentage of precipitation during summer. Mediterranean biomes are mostly dry ({\textless}700 mm annually) but some areas are wet ({\textgreater}1300 mm annually); and many areas are weakly seasonal ({\textgreater}12{\%} of annual precipitation during summer). We also used NOAA NCDC climate records to characterize interannual variability of annual and dry-season precipitation, as well as trends in annual, winter, and dry-season precipitation for 337 sites that met the data quality criteria from 1975 to 2015. Most significantly, sites in many Mediterranean-climate regions show downward trends in annual precipitation (southern California, Spain, Australia, Chile, and Northern Italy); and most of North America, the Mediterranean basin, and Chile showed downward trends in summer precipitation. Variations in annual and summer precipitation likely contribute to the high biodiversity and endemism characteristic of Mediterranean-climate biomes; the data indicate trends toward harsher conditions over the past 40 years.},
author = {Deitch, Matthew and Sapundjieff, Michele and Feirer, Shane},
doi = {10.3390/w9040259},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {Dry season,Interannual Mann-Kendall  analysis climate,Precipitation seasonality,Spatial },
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {259},
title = {{Characterizing Precipitation Variability and Trends in the World's Mediterranean-Climate Areas}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/4/259},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Delworth2014,
abstract = {Precipitation in austral autumn and winter has declined over parts of southern and especially southwesternAustralia in the past few decades1–4 . According to observations and climate models, at least part of this decline is associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation1,2,5–14 , including a poleward movement of the westerly winds and increasing atmospheric surface pressure over parts of southernAustralia. Here we use a high-resolution global climate model to analyse the causes of this rainfall decline. In our simulations, many aspects of the observed regional rainfall decline over southern and southwest Australia are reproduced in response to anthropogenic changes in levels of greenhouse gases and ozone in the atmosphere, whereas anthropogenic aerosols do not contribute to the simulated precipitation decline. Simulations of futureclimatewith thismodelsuggestamplified winter drying over most parts of southern Australia in the coming decades in response to a high-end scenario of changes in radiative forcing. The drying is most pronounced over southwest Australia, with total reductions in austral autumn and winter precipitation of approximately 40{\%} by the late twenty-first century.},
author = {Delworth, Thomas L. and Zeng, Fanrong},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2201},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {583--587},
title = {{Regional rainfall decline in Australia attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and ozone levels}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2201},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Demaria2019GRL,
abstract = {As the atmosphere gets warmer, rainfall intensification is expected across the planet with anticipated impacts on ecological and human systems. In the southwestern USA and northwestern Mexico, the highly variable and localized nature of rainfall during the North American Monsoon makes it difficult to detect temporal changes in rainfall intensities in response to climatic change. This study addresses this challenge by using the dense, sub‐daily and daily observations from 59 rain gauges located in southeastern Arizona. We find an intensification of monsoon sub‐daily rainfall intensities starting in the mid 1970s that has not been observed in previous studies or simulated with high‐resolution climate models. Our results highlight the need for long‐term, high spatiotemporal observations to detect environmental responses to a changing climate in highly‐variable environments, and shows that analyses based on limited observations or gridded datasets fail to capture temporal changes potentially leading to erroneous conclusions.},
author = {Demaria, Eleonora M. C. and Hazenberg, Pieter and Scott, Russell L. and Meles, Menberu B. and Nichols, Mary and Goodrich, David},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL082461},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {North America Monsoon,climate,rainfall intensities,subdaily intensification},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {6839--6847},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long‐Term High‐Density Gauge Network}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082461 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL082461},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{demenocal2012green,
author = {DeMenocal, Peter B and Tierney, Jessica E},
journal = {Nature Education Knowledge},
number = {10},
pages = {12},
title = {{Green Sahara: African humid periods paced by Earth's orbital changes}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/green-sahara-african-humid-periods-paced-by-82884405/},
volume = {3},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Demory2014,
abstract = {The role of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) horizontal resolution in representing the global energy budget and hydrological cycle is assessed, with the aim of improving the understanding of model uncertainties in simulating the hydrological cycle. We use two AGCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM1-A at resolutions ranging from 270 to 60 km, and HadGEM3-A ranging from 135 to 25 km. The models exhibit a stable hydrological cycle, although too intense compared to reanalyses and observations. This over- intensity is explained by excess surface shortwave radia- tion, a common error in general circulation models (GCMs). This result is insensitive to resolution. However, as resolution is increased, precipitation decreases over the ocean and increases over the land. This is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land, which changes the partitioning of moisture fluxe that contribute to precipitation over land from less local to more non-local moisture sources. The results start to con- verge at 60-km resolution, which underlines the excessive reliance of the mean hydrological cycle on physical parametrization (local unresolved processes) versus model dynamics (large-scale resolved processes) in coarser Had- GEM1 and HadGEM3 GCMs. This finding may be valid for other GCMs, showing the necessity to analyze other chains of GCMs that may become available in the future with such a range of horizontal resolutions. Our finding supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in model parametrization is one of the underlying causes of model disagreement in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Pro- ject (CMIP) exercises. Keywords},
author = {Demory, Marie Estelle and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Berrisford, Paul and Strachan, Jane and Schiemann, Reinhard and Mizielinski, Matthew S.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1924-4},
isbn = {0930-7575},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atmospheric moisture transport,GCM,Horizontal Hydrological cycle,Moisture recycling,Precipitation},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2201--2225},
title = {{The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle}},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{DeMott2019,
abstract = {The response of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) to ocean feedbacks is studied with coupled and uncoupled simulations of four general circulation models (GCMs). Monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) from each coupled model is prescribed to its respective uncoupled simulation, to ensure identical SST mean‐state and low‐frequency variability between simulation pairs. Consistent with previous studies, coupling improves each model's ability to propagate MJO convection beyond the Maritime Continent. Analysis of the MJO moist static energy budget reveals that improved MJO eastward propagation in all four coupled models arises from enhanced meridional advection of column water vapor (CWV). Despite the identical mean‐state SST in each coupled and uncoupled simulation pair, coupling increases mean‐state CWV near the equator, sharpening equatorward moisture gradients and enhancing meridional moisture advection and MJO propagation. CWV composites during MJO and non‐MJO periods demonstrate that the MJO itself does not cause enhanced moisture gradients. Instead, analysis of low‐level subgrid‐scale moistening conditioned by rainfall rate (R ) and SST anomaly reveals that coupling enhances low‐level convective moistening for R {\textgreater} 5 mm day−1; this enhancement is most prominent near the equator. The low‐level moistening process varies among the four models, which we interpret in terms of their ocean model configurations, cumulus parameterizations, and sensitivities of convection to column relative humidity.},
author = {DeMott, Charlotte A. and Klingaman, Nicholas P. and Tseng, Wan‐Ling and Burt, Melissa A. and Gao, Yingxia and Randall, David A.},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD031015},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {11910--11931},
title = {{The Convection Connection: How Ocean Feedbacks Affect Tropical Mean Moisture and MJO Propagation}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD031015},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{DeMott2010,
abstract = {Knowledge of cloud and precipitation formation processes remains incomplete, yet global precipitation is predominantly produced by clouds containing the ice phase. Ice first forms in clouds warmer than -36 degrees C on particles termed ice nuclei. We combine observations from field studies over a 14-year period, from a variety of locations around the globe, to show that the concentrations of ice nuclei active in mixed-phase cloud conditions can be related to temperature and the number concentrations of particles larger than 0.5 microm in diameter. This new relationship reduces unexplained variability in ice nuclei concentrations at a given temperature from approximately 10(3) to less than a factor of 10, with the remaining variability apparently due to variations in aerosol chemical composition or other factors. When implemented in a global climate model, the new parameterization strongly alters cloud liquid and ice water distributions compared to the simple, temperature-only parameterizations currently widely used. The revised treatment indicates a global net cloud radiative forcing increase of approximately 1 W m(-2) for each order of magnitude increase in ice nuclei concentrations, demonstrating the strong sensitivity of climate simulations to assumptions regarding the initiation of cloud glaciation.},
author = {DeMott, P J and Prenni, A J and Liu, X and Kreidenweis, S M and Petters, M D and Twohy, C H and Richardson, M S and Eidhammer, T and Rogers, D C},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0910818107},
issn = {1091-6490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {jun},
number = {25},
pages = {11217--22},
pmid = {20534566},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Predicting global atmospheric ice nuclei distributions and their impacts on climate.}},
volume = {107},
year = {2010}
}
@article{DeMott2016,
abstract = {Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are vital for ice initiation in, and precipitation from, mixed-phase clouds. A source of INPs from oceans within sea spray aerosol (SSA) emissions has been suggested in previous studies but remained unconfirmed. Here, we show that INPs are emitted using real wave breaking in a laboratory flume to produce SSA. The number concentrations of INPs from laboratorygenerated SSA, when normalized to typical total aerosol number concentrations in the marine boundary layer, agree well with measurements from diverse regions over the oceans. Data in the present study are also in accord with previously published INP measurements made over remote ocean regions. INP number concentrations active within liquid water droplets increase exponentially in number with a decrease in temperature below 0 ° C, averaging an order of magnitude increase per 5 ° C interval. The plausibility of a strong increase in SSA INP emissions in association with phytoplankton blooms is also shown in laboratory simulations. Nevertheless, INP number concentrations, or active site densities approximated using "dry" geometric SSA surface areas, are a few orders of magnitude lower than corresponding concentrations or site densities in the surface boundary layer over continental regions. These findings have important implications for cloud radiative forcing and precipitation within low-level and midlevel marine clouds unaffected by continental INP sources, such as may occur over the Southern Ocean.},
author = {DeMott, Paul J. and Hill, Thomas C.J. and McCluskey, Christina S. and Prather, Kimberly A. and Collins, Douglas B. and Sullivan, Ryan C. and Ruppel, Matthew J. and Mason, Ryan H. and Irish, Victoria E. and Lee, Taehyoung and Hwang, Chung Yeon and Rhee, Tae Siek and Snider, Jefferson R. and McMeeking, Gavin R. and Dhaniyala, Suresh and Lewis, Ernie R. and Wentzell, Jeremy J.B. and Abbatt, Jonathan and Lee, Christopher and Sultana, Camille M. and Ault, Andrew P. and Axson, Jessica L. and Martinez, Myrelis Diaz and Venero, Ingrid and Santos-Figueroa, Gilmarie and Stokes, M. Dale and Deane, Grant B. and Mayol-Bracero, Olga L. and Grassian, Vicki H. and Bertram, Timothy H. and Bertram, Allan K. and Moffett, Bruce F. and Franc, Gary D.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1514034112},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {21},
pages = {5797--5803},
pmid = {26699469},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Sea spray aerosol as a unique source of ice nucleating particles}},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Deng2020,
abstract = {Understanding how humanity's influence on the climate affects rainfall seasonality around the world is immensely important for agriculture production, ecology protection, and freshwater resource management. In this study, we qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed the potential influence of anthropogenic forcing on rainfall seasonality in global land monsoon (GM) regions using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models. We discovered that anthropogenic forcing enhances rainfall seasonality over many parts of GM regions, and was evident in the South Asian and the most parts of the South American and the South African monsoon regions. Anthropogenic forcing partially but clearly contributed to the increasing trend of rainfall seasonality over many parts of GM regions from 1960 to 2012. Moreover, anthropogenic forcing also increased the probability of more pronounced rainfall seasonality in almost all GM regions. The results provide valuable information for agriculture, ecology, and freshwater resource management under climate warming induced by anthropogenic forcing.},
author = {Deng, Shulin and Sheng, Chen and Yang, Ni and Song, Lian and Huang, Qiuyan},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abafd3},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {10},
pages = {104057},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Anthropogenic forcing enhances rainfall seasonality in global land monsoon regions}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abafd3},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Deng2017,
abstract = {Abstract Snowfall is a critical part of the hydrological system in high-altitude regions and strongly impacted by climate change. This study uses a threshold temperature method to estimate spatial and temporal variations of snowfall at 71 stations across the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2014. Regional air temperature and precipitation have increased by 0.039°C/yr, and 1.43 mm/yr, respectively. While warming rates have been fairly uniform across the plateau, spatial variations in snowfall trends are large, with decreases in the eastern and northeastern areas but increases at higher elevations in the center and west. Region-wide snowfall increased during 1961?1990 and 1971?2000 but decreased in 1981?2010 and 1991?2014. Wintertime snowfall has increased, but summer snowfall has decreased. These divergent trends can be explained because maximum snowfall is recorded at temperatures between 1 and 2°C. Above/below this threshold snowfall usually decreases/increases with increased warming. Although maximum snowfall temperature is a key factor to understand future snowfall changes, concurrent influences such as changing moisture sources and atmospheric circulation patterns require further research.},
author = {Deng, Haijun and Pepin, N C and Chen, Yaning},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026524},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Tibetan Plateau,climate change,mountains,snowfall},
number = {14},
pages = {7323--7341},
title = {{Changes of snowfall under warming in the Tibetan Plateau}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026524},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Deng2018,
author = {Deng, Kaiqiang and Yang, Song and Ting, Mingfang and Tan, Yaheng and He, Shan},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0569.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6947--6966},
title = {{Global Monsoon Precipitation: Trends, Leading Modes, and Associated Drought and Heat Wave in the Northern Hemisphere}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0569.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Deng2019,
author = {Deng, Shulin and Yang, Ni and Li, Manchun and Cheng, Liang and Chen, Zhenjie and Chen, Yanming and Chen, Tan and Liu, Xiaoqiang},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04722-3},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {5},
pages = {3529--3546},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Rainfall seasonality changes and its possible teleconnections with global climate events in China}},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dennison2016,
abstract = {Abstract We investigate the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on tropospheric blocking in the Southern Hemisphere. Blocking events are identified using a persistent positive anomaly method applied to 500 hPa geopotential height. Using the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols chemistry-climate model, we compare reference runs that include forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances to sensitivity simulations in which ozone-depleting substances are fixed at their 1960 abundances and other sensitivity simulations with GHGs fixed at their 1960 abundances. Blocking events in the South Atlantic are shown to follow stratospheric positive anomalies in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index; this is not the case for South Pacific blocking events. This relationship means that summer ozone depletion, and corresponding positive SAM anomalies, leads to an increased frequency of blocking in the South Atlantic while having little effect in the South Pacific. Similarly, ozone recovery, having the opposite effect on the SAM, leads to a decline in blocking frequency in the South Atlantic, although this may be somewhat counteracted by the effect of increasing GHGs.},
author = {Dennison, Fraser W and McDonald, Adrian and Morgenstern, Olaf},
doi = {10.1002/2016JD025033},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {SAM,blocking,climate model,ozone},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {14358--14371},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The influence of ozone forcing on blocking in the Southern Hemisphere}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025033 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016JD025033},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{duwlvappcwh16,
abstract = {The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial and marine biodiversity and home to 40{\%} of people on Earth. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1400-1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the LIA, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Here we show that the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted numerous times over multi-decadal to centennial scales during the last 3,000 yr. By integrating precisely-dated stalagmite records of tropical hydroclimate from southern China with a newly enhanced stalagmite time series from northern Australia, our study reveals a previously unidentified coherence between the austral and boreal summer monsoon. State-of-the-art climate model simulations of the last millennium suggest these are linked to changes in the structure of the regional manifestation of the atmosphere's meridional circulation.},
author = {Denniston, Rhawn F. and Ummenhofer, Caroline C. and Wanamaker, Alan D. and Lachniet, Matthew S. and Villarini, Gabriele and Asmerom, Yemane and Polyak, Victor J. and Passaro, Kristian J. and Cugley, John and Woods, David and Humphreys, William F.},
doi = {10.1038/srep34485},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
pages = {34485},
title = {{Expansion and Contraction of the Indo-Pacific Tropical Rain Belt over the Last Three Millennia}},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Deryng2016,
abstract = {Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments and global crop models to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated [CO2] and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find CO2 effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]{\%}–27[7;37]{\%} (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]{\%} for rainfed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated [CO2] could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4–17{\%}). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modelling the effects of rising [CO2] across crop and hydrological modelling communities.},
author = {Deryng, Delphine and Elliott, Joshua and Folberth, Christian and M{\"{u}}ller, Christoph and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Boote, Kenneth J. and Conway, Declan and Ruane, Alex C. and Gerten, Dieter and Jones, James W. and Khabarov, Nikolay and Olin, Stefan and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Schmid, Erwin and Yang, Hong and Rosenzweig, Cynthia},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2995},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {786--790},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2995 http://10.0.4.14/nclimate2995 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2995{\#}supplementary-information},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Descroix2018,
abstract = {In the West African Sahel, two paradoxical hydrological behaviors have occurred during the last five decades. The first paradox was observed during the 1968{\&}ndash;1990s {\&}lsquo;Great Drought{\&}rsquo; period, during which runoff significantly increased. The second paradox appeared during the subsequent period of rainfall recovery (i.e., since the 1990s), during which the runoff coefficient continued to increase despite the general re-greening of the Sahel. This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on the drivers of these paradoxical behaviors, focusing on recent works in the West African Sahelo/Sudanian strip, and upscaling the hydrological processes through an analysis of recent data from two representative areas of this region. This paper helps better determine the respective roles played by Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCC), the evolution of rainfall intensity and the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in these hydrological paradoxes. Both the literature review and recent data converge in indicating that the first Sahelian hydrological paradox was mostly driven by LULCC, while the second paradox has been caused by both LULCC and climate evolution, mainly the recent increase in rainfall intensity.},
author = {Descroix, Luc and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Grippa, Manuela and Lambert, Laurent and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Mah{\'{e}}, Gil and Gal, Laetitia and Dardel, C{\'{e}}cile and Quantin, Guillaume and Kergoat, Laurent and Boua{\"{i}}ta, Yasmin and Hiernaux, Pierre and Vischel, Th{\'{e}}o and Pellarin, Thierry and Faty, Bakary and Wilcox, Catherine and {Malam Abdou}, Moussa and Mamadou, Ibrahim and Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre and Diongue-Niang, A{\"{i}}da and Ndiaye, Ousmane and San{\'{e}}, Youssouph and Dacosta, Honor{\'{e}} and Gosset, Marielle and Cass{\'{e}}, Claire and Sultan, Benjamin and Barry, Aliou and Amogu, Okechukwu and {Nka Nnomo}, Bernadette and Barry, Alseny and Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel and Descroix, Luc and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Grippa, Manuela and Lambert, Laurent A. and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Mah{\'{e}}, Gil and Gal, Laetitia and Dardel, C{\'{e}}cile and Quantin, Guillaume and Kergoat, Laurent and Boua{\"{i}}ta, Yasmin and Hiernaux, Pierre and Vischel, Th{\'{e}}o and Pellarin, Thierry and Faty, Bakary and Wilcox, Catherine and {Malam Abdou}, Moussa and Mamadou, Ibrahim and Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre and Diongue-Niang, A{\"{i}}da and Ndiaye, Ousmane and San{\'{e}}, Youssouph and Dacosta, Honor{\'{e}} and Gosset, Marielle and Cass{\'{e}}, Claire and Sultan, Benjamin and Barry, Aliou and Amogu, Okechukwu and {Nka Nnomo}, Bernadette and Barry, Alseny and Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel},
doi = {10.3390/w10060748},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {Sahel,climate change,greening,hydrological paradox,land use/land cover changes,re,water holding capacity},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {748},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Evolution of Surface Hydrology in the Sahelo-Sudanian Strip: An Updated Review}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/6/748},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Descroix2013,
abstract = {L'augmentation observ{\'{e}}e du ruissellement et des {\'{e}}coulements au Sahel depuis le d{\'{e}}but de la s{\'{e}}cheresse constitue le “paradoxe hydrologique du Sahel”. Il est attribu{\'{e}} depuis sa mise en {\'{e}}vidence dans les ann{\'{e}}es 1980 au changement d'usage des sols, la combinaison de la mise en cultures, du raccourcissement des jach{\`{e}}res et de la fragilisation des couverts v{\'{e}}g{\'{e}}taux par les pics de s{\'{e}}cheresse ayant conduit {\`{a}} un encro{\^{u}}tement des sols. Ce dernier est {\`{a}} l'origine de l'augmentation des coefficients de ruissellement. Mais on a r{\'{e}}cemment observ{\'{e}} une augmentation du nombre d'{\'{e}}v{\`{e}}nements pluviom{\'{e}}triques de fort cumul pr{\'{e}}cipit{\'{e}} au Sahel. On se propose ici de d{\'{e}}terminer si une telle {\'{e}}volution est perceptible sur le bassin moyen du fleuve Niger, et d'analyser, le cas {\'{e}}ch{\'{e}}ant, si elle est susceptible de contribuer {\`{a}} l'accroissement des volumes {\'{e}}coul{\'{e}}s observ{\'{e}}s. Cette r{\'{e}}gion est la partie sah{\'{e}}lienne du bassin, situ{\'{e}}e {\`{a}} cheval sur le Burkina Faso, le Mali et le Niger; cette zone semi-aride recevant de 250 {\`{a}} 800 mm de pluie a {\'{e}}t{\'{e}} s{\'{e}}v{\`{e}}rement touch{\'{e}}e par la s{\'{e}}cheresse apr{\`{e}}s 1968. Sa v{\'{e}}g{\'{e}}tation naturelle a {\'{e}}t{\'{e}} en grande partie d{\'{e}}truite et/ou remplac{\'{e}}e par des cultures. On utilise ici les donn{\'{e}}es des pr{\'{e}}cipitations journali{\`{e}}res class{\'{e}}es et par d{\'{e}}cennie pour analyser l'{\'{e}}volution des {\'{e}}v{\`{e}}nements de fort cumul pluviom{\'{e}}trique depuis 1951. Le paradoxe du Sahel est renforc{\'{e}} depuis la r{\'{e}}-augmentation partielle des pr{\'{e}}cipitations dans la fin des ann{\'{e}}es 1990 par une augmentation plus forte des {\'{e}}v{\`{e}}nements journaliers {\`{a}} fort cumul pluviom{\'{e}}trique.},
author = {Descroix, Luc and {Diongue Niang}, A{\"{i}}da and Dacosta, Honor{\'{e}} and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Quantin, Guillaume and Diedhiou, Arona},
doi = {10.4267/climatologie.78},
issn = {1996-3041},
journal = {Climatologie},
keywords = {Mots-cl{\'{e}}s : Sahel,changement d'usage des sols,crues,inondations,pr{\'{e}}cipitations extr{\^{e}}mes},
month = {oct},
pages = {37--49},
title = {{{\'{E}}volution des pluies de cumul {\'{e}}lev{\'{e}} et recrudescence des crues depuis 1951 dans le bassin du Niger moyen (Sahel)}},
url = {http://lodel.irevues.inist.fr/climatologie/docannexe/file/78/37{\_}descroix.pdf https://climatology.edpsciences.org/10.4267/climatologie.78},
volume = {10},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Descroix2015,
abstract = {La mousson ouest-africaine rythme le calendrier agricole de toute l'Afrique de l'Ouest; celui-ci est de plus en plus court au fur et {\`{a}} mesure que l'on se d{\'{e}}place vers le Nord, comme la dur{\'{e}}e et l'abondance de la mousson diminuent. Apr{\`{e}}s une p{\'{e}}riode de s{\'{e}}cheresse de 1968 {\`{a}} 1995, l'Afrique de l'Ouest conna{\^{i}}t plut{\^{o}}t depuis la fin du dernier mill{\'{e}}naire un retour {\`{a}} des conditions pluviom{\'{e}}triques plus humides; celles-ci, aux latitudes soudano-sah{\'{e}}liennes, sont similaires, en termes de moyenne et de variabilit{\'{e}} interannuelle, {\`{a}} celles qui ont {\'{e}}t{\'{e}} observ{\'{e}}es de 1900 {\`{a}} 1950. L'objectif est de montrer en quoi l'{\'{e}}volution pluviom{\'{e}}trique r{\'{e}}cente explique la dynamique hydrologique et agronomique de la r{\'{e}}gion ouest-africaine, en particulier l'occurrence accrue des inondations et le faible regain des rendements agricoles en d{\'{e}}pit du retour {\`{a}} une pluviom{\'{e}}trie plus favorable. Des m{\'{e}}thodes statistiques simples sont utilis{\'{e}}es dans deux sous-r{\'{e}}gions, la S{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}gambie et le bassin du Niger Moyen, pour mettre en {\'{e}}vidence l'{\'{e}}volution, sur la p{\'{e}}riode 1950-2013, des caract{\'{e}}ristiques de la mousson qui ont un int{\'{e}}r{\^{e}}t hydrologique et agronomique (cumuls annuels, pluies extr{\^{e}}mes, date de d{\'{e}}but et de fin et dur{\'{e}}e de la saison des pluies). On observe que les p{\'{e}}riodes 1900-1950 et 1995-2015 peuvent {\^{e}}tre consid{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}es comme des p{\'{e}}riodes de pluviom{\'{e}}trie moyenne, les p{\'{e}}riodes 1951-1967 et 1968-1995 {\'{e}}tant des p{\'{e}}riodes respectivement humides et s{\`{e}}ches. Par ailleurs, on observe une augmentation des jours de pluie de fort cumul bien plus rapide que celle de la pluie elle-m{\^{e}}me. Enfin, si la saison des pluies est {\`{a}} pr{\'{e}}sent sensiblement plus longue que durant la phase s{\`{e}}che, on observe pourtant ces derni{\`{e}}res ann{\'{e}}es dans le Sahel central un retour des « mauvais » hivernages au sens agronomique du terme.},
author = {Descroix, Luc and {Diongue Niang}, A{\"{i}}da and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Bodian, Ansoumana and Sane, Youssouph and Dacosta, Honor{\'{e}} and {Malam Abdou}, Moussa and Vandervaere, Jean-Pierre and Quantin, Guillaume},
doi = {10.4267/climatologie.1105},
issn = {1996-3041},
journal = {Climatologie},
keywords = {West Africa,agronomic monsoon,duration of rainy season,extreme rainfall,monsoon},
month = {mar},
pages = {25--43},
title = {{{\'{E}}volution r{\'{e}}cente de la pluviom{\'{e}}trie en Afrique de l'ouest {\`{a}} travers deux r{\'{e}}gions : la S{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}gambie et le bassin du Niger moyen}},
url = {http://lodel.irevues.inist.fr/climatologie/docannexe/file/1105/descroix{\_}et{\_}al{\_}climatologie{\_}2015{\_}pages{\_}25{\_}a{\_}43.pdf https://climatology.edpsciences.org/10.4267/climatologie.1105},
volume = {12},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Deser2018,
author = {Deser, Clara and Simpson, Isla R. and Phillips, Adam. S. and McKinnon, Karen A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0783.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {4991--5014},
title = {{How Well Do We Know ENSO's Climate Impacts over North America, and How Do We Evaluate Models Accordingly?}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0783.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Deser2017,
author = {Deser, Clara and Hurrell, James W. and Phillips, Adam S.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {nov},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3141--3157},
title = {{The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Deser2012a,
abstract = {Uncertainty in future climate change presents a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this study, uncer- tainty arising from internal climate variability is investi- gated using a new 40-member ensemble conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) under the SRES A1B greenhouse gas and ozone recovery forcing scenarios during 2000–2060. The contribution of intrinsic atmo- spheric variability to the total uncertainty is further exam- ined using a 10,000-year control integration of the atmospheric model component of CCSM3 under fixed boundary conditions. The global climate response is char- acterized in terms of air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure during winter and summer. The dominant source of uncertainty in the simulated climate response at middle and high latitudes is internal atmospheric variability associated with the annular modes of circulation variability. Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability plays a dominant role in the tropics, with attendant effects at higher latitudes via atmospheric teleconnections. Uncertainties in the forced response are generally larger for sea level pressure than precipitation, and smallest for air temperature. Accordingly, forced changes in air temperature can be detected earlier and with fewer ensemble members than those in atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Implications of the results for detection and attribution of observed climate change and for multi-model climate assessments are discussed. Internal variability is estimated to account for at least half of the inter-model spread in projected climate trends during 2005–2060 in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble.},
author = {Deser, Clara and Phillips, Adam and Bourdette, Vincent and Teng, Haiyan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {527--546},
title = {{Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x},
volume = {38},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Devers2020a,
abstract = {The knowledge of historical French weather has recently been improved through the development of the Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended (SCOPE) cli- mate reconstructions. This high-resolution ensemble daily reconstruction dataset of precipitation and temperature covers the period 1871–2012 and is derived through a statistical downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis. Historical surface observations – even though rather scarce and sparse – do exist from at least the beginning of the period considered, and this information does not currently feed SCOPE Climate. We propose to construct a new high-resolution surface reanaly- sis over France – called FYRE Climate (French hYdrometeorological REanalysis Climate) – by assimilating daily temperature and precipitation observations into SCOPE Climate through an offline Ensemble Kalman Filter. The goal of the study is to test methodological choices for developing the future FYRE Climate surface reanalysis. The data assimilation scheme is evaluated over the 2009–2012 period with an increasing assimilated observation density reproducing historical densi- ties. A consistent set of independent stations is retained for validation in terms of continuous ranked probability score, daily bias and daily correlation. Results high- light the importance of the localization as well as the Gaussian anamorphosis for precipitation. They show that: (a) the reanalysis has a lower uncertainty than the initial SCOPE Climate reconstructions, (b) its reliability is similar, and (c) the data assimilation allows reaching the performance of the reference Safran surface reanal- ysis over France, even for a density of observations as low as the one of 1950. These results thus pave the way for a full 140-year high-resolution precipitation and temperature surface reanalysis over France.},
author = {Devers, Alexandre and Vidal, Jean‐Philippe and Lauvernet, Claire and Graff, Benjamin and Vannier, Olivier},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3663},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {726},
pages = {153--173},
title = {{A framework for high‐resolution meteorological surface reanalysis through offline data assimilation in an ensemble of downscaled reconstructions}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3663},
volume = {146},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Dey2019c,
abstract = {There has been much attention given to the spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in mean and extreme rainfall over Australia during the past century. As Australia is the second driest continent on Earth, reliable projections around the trends and variability in future rainfall are crucial for policymakers and water resource management. This article comprehensively reviews the current published literature on trends in Australia's rainfall from pre-instrumental and instrumental records, the climatic drivers of Australia's rainfall variability, attribution of the long-term trends, extreme rainfall attribution methods with particular reference to a recent case study (2010?2012 east Australia rainfall event) and projected changes of mean and extreme rainfall over Australia during the 21st century. Notable trends in the observational record of rainfall in Australia are a decrease in mean rainfall in southwest and southeast Australia and an increase in northwest Australia since 1950. The general consensus of research into Australia's future rainfall is that mean rainfall will continue to decrease in southwest Australia in a warming world, while changes over northern and eastern Australia remain uncertain. There are still significant knowledge gaps around the causes of observed trends in rainfall both in the mean and extremes, the ability of climate models to accurately represent rainfall in the Australian region and future rainfall projections. These gaps are identified, and avenues for future research directions are proposed. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends {\textgreater} Modern Climate Change},
author = {Dey, Raktima and Lewis, Sophie C and Arblaster, Julie M and Abram, Nerilie J},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.577},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
keywords = {Australian rainfall,climate change,extreme trend,rainfall driver,rainfall projection},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {e577},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A review of past and projected changes in Australia's rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.577},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dey2019,
author = {Dey, Raktima and Lewis, Sophie C. and Abram, Nerilie J.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5788},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {112--127},
title = {{Investigating observed northwest Australian rainfall trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 detection and attribution experiments}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5788},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{di2018water,
author = {{Di Baldassarre}, Giuliano and Wanders, Niko and AghaKouchak, Amir and Kuil, Linda and Rangecroft, Sally and Veldkamp, Ted I E and Garcia, Margaret and van Oel, Pieter R and Breinl, Korbinian and {Van Loon}, Anne F},
doi = {10.1038/s41893-018-0159-0},
journal = {Nature Sustainability},
number = {11},
pages = {617--622},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Water shortages worsened by reservoir effects}},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{DiCapua2020,
abstract = {ThealternationofactiveandbreakphasesinIndiansummermonsoon(ISM)rainfallatintraseasonal timescales characterizes each ISM season. Both tropical and mid-latitude drivers influence this intraseasonal ISM variability. The circumglobal teleconnection observed in boreal summer drives intraseasonal variability across the mid-latitudes, and a two-way interaction between the ISM and the circumglobal teleconnection pattern has been hypothesized. We use causal discovery algorithms to test the ISM circumglobal teleconnection hypothesis in a causal framework. A robust causal link from the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the North Atlantic region to ISM rainfall is identified, and we estimate the normalized causal effect (CE) of this link to be about 0.2 (a 1 standard deviation shift in the circumglobal teleconnection causes a 0.2 standard deviation shift in the ISM rainfall 1 week later). The ISM rainfall feeds back on the circumglobal teleconnection pattern, however weakly. Moreover, we identify a negative feedback between strong updraft located over India and the Bay of Bengal and the ISM rainfall acting at a biweekly timescale, with enhanced ISM rainfall following strong updraft by 1 week. This mechanism is possibly related to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. The updraft has the strongest CE of 0.5, while the Madden–Julian oscillation variability has a CE of 0.2–0.3. Our results show that most of the ISM variability on weekly timescales comes from these tropical drivers, though the mid-latitude teleconnection also exerts a substantial influence. Identifying these local and remote drivers paves the way for improved subseasonal forecasts.},
author = {{Di Capua}, Giorgia and Kretschmer, Marlene and Donner, Reik V. and van den Hurk, Bart and Vellore, Ramesh and Krishnan, Raghavan and Coumou, Dim},
doi = {10.5194/esd-11-17-2020},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {17--34},
title = {{Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/17/2020/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{DiLuca2015,
abstract = {This paper summarises the current state of understanding with respect to the added value (AV) to be expected from one-way nested high-resolution regional climate simulations and projections. The reasons that lead to the development and the progress of regional climate models (RCMs) are first considered. The scientific basis sustaining the RCMs mission is then briefly reviewed. Based on recent publications of studies on the topic of AV, concepts related to the various definitions of AV are examined with the aim of clarifying their meaning and of bridging different schools of thought. The conditions under which AV can be expected, and in which variables and statistical moments, are also discussed.},
author = {{Di Luca}, Alejandro and de El{\'{i}}a, Ram{\'{o}}n and Laprise, Ren{\'{e}}},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-015-0003-9},
issn = {21986061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Added value,Boundary conditions,Climate change signal,Dynamical downscaling,Evaluation,Regional climate model},
number = {1},
pages = {10--21},
title = {{Challenges in the Quest for Added Value of Regional Climate Dynamical Downscaling}},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{DiVirgilio2020,
abstract = {Coarse resolution global climate models (GCMs) cannot resolve fine-scale drivers of regional climate, which is the scale where climate adaptation decisions are made. Regional climate models (RCMs) generate high-resolution projections by dynamically downscaling GCM outputs. However, evidence of where and when downscaling provides new information about both the current climate (added value, AV) and projected climate change signals, relative to driving data, is lacking. Seasons and locations where CORDEX-Australasia ERA-Interim and GCM-driven RCMs show AV for mean and extreme precipitation and temperature are identified. A new concept is introduced, ‘realised added value', that identifies where and when RCMs simultaneously add value in the present climate and project a different climate change signal, thus suggesting plausible improvements in future climate projections by RCMs. ERA-Interim-driven RCMs add value to the simulation of summer-time mean precipitation, especially over northern and eastern Australia. GCM-driven RCMs show AV for precipitation over complex orography in south-eastern Australia during winter and widespread AV for mean and extreme minimum temperature during both seasons, especially over coastal and high-altitude areas. RCM projections of decreased winter rainfall over the Australian Alps and decreased summer rainfall over northern Australia are collocated with notable realised added value. Realised added value averaged across models, variables, seasons and statistics is evident across the majority of Australia and shows where plausible improvements in future climate projections are conferred by RCMs. This assessment of varying RCM capabilities to provide realised added value to GCM projections can be applied globally to inform climate adaptation and model development.},
author = {{Di Virgilio}, Giovanni and Evans, Jason P. and {Di Luca}, Alejandro and Grose, Michael R. and Round, Vanessa and Thatcher, Marcus},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05250-1},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CORDEX-Australasia,Climate extremes,Climate impact adaptation,Precipitation,Regional climate modelling,Temperature},
number = {11-12},
pages = {4675--4692},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change}},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Diakhateetal2019,
abstract = {This article analyzes SST remote forcing on the interannual variability of Sahel summer (June–September) moderate (below 75th percentile) and heavy (above 75th percentile) daily precipitation events during the period 1981–2016. Evidence is given that interannual variability of these events is markedly different. The occurrence of moderate daily rainfall events appears to be enhanced by positive SST anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic and Mediterranean, which act to increase low-level moisture advection toward the Sahel from the equatorial and north tropical Atlantic (the opposite holds for negative SSTs anomalies). In contrast, heavy and extreme daily rainfall events seem to be linked to El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Mediterranean variability. Under La Ni{\~{n}}a conditions and a warmer Mediterranean, vertical atmospheric instability is increased over the Sahel and low-level moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic is enhanced over the area (the reverse is found for opposite-sign SST anomalies). Further evidence suggests that interannual variability of Sahel rainfall is mainly dominated by the extreme events. These results have implications for seasonal forecasting of Sahel moderate and heavy precipitation events based on SST predictors, as significant predictability is found from 1 to 4 months in advance.},
author = {Diakhat{\'{e}}, M. and Rodr{\'{i}}guez-Fonseca, B. and G{\'{o}}mara, I. and Mohino, E. and Dieng, A. L. and Gaye, A. T.},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-18-0035.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {397--410},
title = {{Oceanic Forcing on Interannual Variability of Sahel Heavy and Moderate Daily Rainfall}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0035.1},
volume = {20},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Diallo2016,
abstract = {We use two CORDEX-Africa simulations performed with the regional model RegCM4 to characterize the projected changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes associated with the West African Monsoon (WAM). RegCM4 was driven for the period 1970–2100 by the HadGEM2-ES and the MPI-ESM Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. RegCM4 accurately simulates the WAM characteristics in terms of seasonal mean, seasonal cycle, interannual variability and extreme events of rainfall. Overall, both RegCM4 experiments are able to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric circulation for the reference period (i.e. present-day), and in fact show improved performance compared to the driving GCMs in terms of precipitation mean climatology and extreme events, although different shortcomings in the various models are still evident. Precipitation is projected to decrease (increase) over western (eastern) Sahel, although with different spatial detail between RegCM4 and the corresponding driving GCMs. Changes in extreme precipitation events show patterns in line with those of the mean change. The models project different changes in water budget over the Sahel region, where the MPI projects an increased deficit in local moisture supply (E {\textless} P) whereas the rest of models project a local surplus (E {\textgreater} P). The E–P change is primarily precipitation driven. The precipitation increases over the eastern and/or central Sahel are attributed to the increase of moisture convergence due to increased water vapor in the boundary layer air column and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the projected dry conditions over the western Sahel are associated with the strengthening of moisture divergence in the upper level (850–300 hPa) combined to both a southward migration of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and a weakening of rising motion between the core of the AEJ and the Tropical Easterly Jet.},
author = {Diallo, Isma{\"{i}}la and Giorgi, Filippo and Deme, Abdoulaye and Tall, Moustapha and Mariotti, Laura and Gaye, Amadou T.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3052-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {3931--3954},
title = {{Projected changes of summer monsoon extremes and hydroclimatic regimes over West Africa for the twenty-first century}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3052-4},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Diatta2014,
author = {Diatta, Samo and Fink, Andreas H.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3912},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {West African monsoon,rainfall variability,teleconnections},
month = {oct},
number = {12},
pages = {3348--3367},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Statistical relationship between remote climate indices and West African monsoon variability}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3912},
volume = {34},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Diem2013a,
author = {Diem, Jeremy E.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3421},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {160--172},
title = {{Influences of the Bermuda High and atmospheric moistening on changes in summer rainfall in the Atlanta, Georgia region, USA}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3421},
volume = {33},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Diem2013,
author = {Diem, Jeremy E. and Brown, David P. and McCann, Jessie},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3576},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {jul},
number = {9},
pages = {2274--2279},
title = {{Multi-decadal changes in the North American monsoon anticyclone}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.3576 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3576},
volume = {33},
year = {2013}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2018WR023087,
abstract = {Abstract In the mountainous regions of western North America, snowmelt recharges groundwater and provides ecosystem-sustaining base flow during low-flow periods. Continued warming is expected to have large impacts on snowmelt hydrology and on low-flow regimes, but the relative impact of temperature and precipitation on low flows is unclear. To address this knowledge gap, the dominant climate controls on summer and winter season low flows in 63 near-natural catchments in mountainous ecoregions of western North America are identified with correlation analysis, and low-flow sensitivity to temperature and precipitation is quantified with multiple linear regression analysis. Results show that precipitation is the dominant control on the interannual variability of annual runoff and on the duration and severity of summer and winter low flows. The temperature sensitivity of low flows, however, can be as much as twice that of annual runoff. Warm winters correspond to significantly lower runoff; significantly longer, more severe summer low flows; and significantly shorter winter low flows. This highlights the importance of winter climate conditions for runoff and low flows in these mountain catchments and provides another line of evidence regarding the impacts of climate change on snowmelt hydrology.},
author = {Dierauer, Jennifer R and Whitfield, Paul H and Allen, Diana M},
doi = {10.1029/2018WR023087},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {climate controls,low flows,mountain catchments,snowmelt hydrology,streamflow sensitivity,western North America},
number = {10},
pages = {7495--7510},
title = {{Climate Controls on Runoff and Low Flows in Mountain Catchments of Western North America}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018WR023087},
volume = {54},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dijk2020,
abstract = {Earth's climate sensitivity, defined as the temperature increase for a doubling of partial pressure of carbon dioxide ({\$}{\$}p{\_}{\{}$\backslash$mathrm{\{}CO{\}}{\_}2{\}}{\$}{\$}pCO2), and the mechanisms responsible for amplification of high-latitude warming remain controversial. The latest Palaeocene/earliest Eocene (LPEE; 57–55 million years ago) is a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations peaked between 1,400 and 4,000 ppm, which allows us to evaluate the climatic response to high {\$}{\$}p{\_}{\{}$\backslash$mathrm{\{}CO{\}}{\_}2{\}}{\$}{\$}pCO2. Here we present a reconstruction of continental temperatures and oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation (reflective of specific humidity) based on clumped and oxygen isotope analysis of pedogenic siderites. We show that continental mean annual temperatures reached 41 °C in the equatorial tropics, and summer temperatures reached 23 °C in the Arctic. The oxygen isotope compositions of precipitation reveal that compared with the present day the hot LPEE climate was characterized by an increase in specific humidity and the average residence time of atmospheric moisture and by a decrease in the subtropical-to-polar specific humidity gradient. The global increase in specific humidity reflects the fact that atmospheric vapour content is more sensitive to changes in {\$}{\$}p{\_}{\{}$\backslash$mathrm{\{}CO{\}}{\_}2{\}}{\$}{\$}pCO2than evaporation and precipitation, resulting in an increase in the residence time of moisture in the atmosphere. Pedogenic siderite data from other super-greenhouse periods support the evidence that the spatial patterns of specific humidity and warmth are related, providing a new means to evaluate Earth's climate sensitivity.},
author = {Dijk, Joep Van and Fernandez, Alvaro and Bernasconi, Stefano M. and Rugenstein, Jeremy K. Caves and Passey, Simon R. and White, Tim},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-020-00648-2},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {11},
pages = {739--744},
title = {{Spatial pattern of super-greenhouse warmth controlled by elevated specific humidity}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00648-2},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Dinezio2011,
abstract = {The response of the Walker circulation to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) forcing is analyzed using an ensemble of six coordinated coupled climate model experiments. The tropical atmospheric overturning circulation strengthens in all models in a manner that is dictated by the response of the hydrological cycle to tropical cooling. This response arises from the same mechanism that has been found to explain the weakening of the tropical circulation in response to anthropogenic global warming but with opposite sign. Analysis of the model differences shows that the ascending branch of the Walker circulation strengthens via this mechanism but vertical motion also weakens over areas of the Maritime Continent exposed due to lower sea level. Each model exhibits a different balance between these two mechanisms, and the result is a Pacific Walker circulation response that is not robust. Further, even those models that simulate a stronger Walker circulation during the LGM do not simulate clear patterns of surface cooling, such as La Nia-like cooling or enhanced equatorial cooling, as proposed by previous studies. In contrast, the changes in the Walker circulation have a robust and distinctive signature on the tilt of the equatorial thermocline, as expected from zonal momentum balance. The changes in the Walker circulation also have a clear signature on the spatial pattern of the precipitation changes. A reduction of the east-west salinity contrast in the Indian Ocean is related to the precipitation changes resulting from a weakening of the Indian Walker circulation. These results indicate that proxies of thermocline depth and sea surface salinity can be used to detect actual LGM changes in the Pacific and Indian Walker circulations, respectively, and help to constrain the sensitivity of the Walker circulation to tropical cooling. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.},
author = {DiNezio, P. N. and Clement, A. and Vecchi, G. A. and Soden, B. and Broccoli, A. J. and Otto-Bliesner, B. L. and Braconnot, P.},
doi = {10.1029/2010PA002083},
isbn = {0883-8305},
issn = {08838305},
journal = {Paleoceanography},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {PA3217},
title = {{The response of the Walker circulation to Last Glacial Maximum forcing: Implications for detection in proxies}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2010PA002083},
volume = {26},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Dinezio2013,
abstract = {The Indo-Pacificwarm pool—the main source of heat and moisture to the global atmosphere—plays a prominent role in tropical and global climate variability. During the Last Glacial Maximum, temperatures within thewarm poolwere cooler than today and precipitation patterns were altered, but the mechanism responsible for these shifts remains unclear. Here we use a synthesis of proxy reconstructions of warm pool hydrology and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations to assess the drivers of these changes. The proxy data suggest drier conditions throughout the centre of the warm pool and wetter conditions in the western Indian and Pacific oceans. Only one model out of twelve simulates a pattern of hydroclimate change similar to our reconstructions, as measured by the Cohen's $\kappa$ statistic. Exposure of the Sunda Shelf by lower glacial sea level plays a key role in the hydrologic pattern simulated by this model, which results from changes in theWalker circulation driven by weakened convection over the warm pool. We therefore conclude that on glacial–interglacial timescales, the growth and decay of ice sheets exert a first-order influence on tropical climate through the associated changes in global sea level. T},
author = {DiNezio, Pedro N. and Tierney, Jessica E.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1823},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {17520894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {6},
pages = {485--491},
title = {{The effect of sea level on glacial Indo-Pacific climate}},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{dinezio2018glacial,
author = {DiNezio, Pedro N and Tierney, Jessica E and Otto-Bliesner, Bette L and Timmermann, Axel and Bhattacharya, Tripti and Rosenbloom, Nan and Brady, Esther},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aat9658},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {eaat9658},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Glacial changes in tropical climate amplified by the Indian Ocean}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aat9658},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{dh17,
author = {Dirmeyer, P A and Halder, S},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-16-0064.1},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
pages = {85},
title = {{Application of the Land–Atmosphere Coupling Paradigm to the Operational Coupled Forecast System, Version 2 (CFSv2)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0064.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{dcwshcbmksebdl18,
abstract = {This study compares four model systems in three configurations (LSM, LSM + GCM, and reanalysis) with global flux tower observations to validate states, surface fluxes, and coupling indices between land and atmosphere. Models clearly underrepresent the feedback of surface fluxes on boundary layer properties (the atmospheric leg of land–atmosphere coupling) and may overrepresent the connection between soil moisture and surface fluxes (the terrestrial leg). Models generally underrepresent spatial and temporal variability relative to observations, which is at least partially an artifact of the differences in spatial scale between model grid boxes and flux tower footprints. All models bias high in near-surface humidity and downward shortwave radiation, struggle to represent precipitation accurately, and show serious problems in reproducing surface albedos. These errors create challenges for models to partition surface energy properly, and errors are traceable through the surface energy and water cycles. The spatial distribution of the amplitude and phase of annual cycles (first harmonic) are generally well reproduced, but the biases in means tend to reflect in these amplitudes. Interannual variability is also a challenge for models to reproduce. Although the models validate better against Bowen-ratio-corrected surface flux observations, which allow for closure of surface energy balances at flux tower sites, it is not clear whether the corrected fluxes are more representative of actual fluxes. The analysis illuminates targets for coupled land–atmosphere model development, as well as the value of long-term globally distributed observational monitoring.},
author = {Dirmeyer, Paul A and Chen, Liang and Wu, Jiexia and Shin, Chul-Su and Huang, Bohua and Cash, Benjamin A and Bosilovich, Michael G and Mahanama, Sarith and Koster, Randal D and Santanello, Joseph A and Ek, Michael B and Balsamo, Gianpaolo and Dutra, Emanuel and Lawrence, David M},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-17-0152.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {375--392},
title = {{Verification of Land–Atmosphere Coupling in Forecast Models, Reanalyses, and Land Surface Models Using Flux Site Observations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0152.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0152.1},
volume = {19},
year = {2018}
}
@article{dgs18,
abstract = {tmospheric cloud radiative effects (ACRE) narrow the Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZs) in climate models. Some studies have attributed this to the upper tropospheric heating by deep clouds. We report two types of idealized aquaplanet experiments, one where ACRE in specific altitude ranges is removed and another where the ACRE associated with clouds in specific altitude ranges is removed. Lower tropospheric heating due to upper tropospheric clouds in the deep tropics exerts the greatest impact on the ITCZ width and meridional overturning, even though the heating is weaker than in the upper troposphere. It is argued that this is because radiatively driven changes in the shallow circulation drive a feedback via net import of MSE and make the ITCZ more unstable in its core, thereby forcing the ITCZ to contract. The radiative effects of clouds in the subsiding subtropics are found to be of secondary importance in driving the necessary circulation changes. Plain Language Summary The climate models do not simulate the latitudinal extent (the width) of the tropical oceanic rainbands, that is, the Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZs), accurately. This problem has been identified as a fundamental puzzle of climate science and is one of the major focus of WCRP's‐Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity project. Recent studies demonstrated that the cloud radiative heating effects reduce the ITCZ width. In this paper, we perform idealized experiments to identify the relative roles of upper versus lower and local versus remote clouds in changing ITCZ width. In our experiments, we either artificially alter the radiative heating of all clouds in specific atmospheric layers or alter the heating due to clouds in specific atmospheric layers. We found that the lower‐level heating due to upper‐level clouds within the ITCZ affects the lower‐level overturning circulation and hence the ITCZ width the most. The lower‐level overturning strengthens the moisture import in the ITCZ core and enhances the precipitation there. In response, the precipitation on the edges decreases and the ITCZ width reduces. The clouds remote to the ITCZ do not alter the ITCZ width significantly.},
author = {Dixit, Vishal and Geoffroy, Olivier and Sherwood, Steven C.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078292},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {ITCZ width,aquaplanet experiments,cloud radiative effects,double-ITCZ problem,gross moist stability,shallow meridional circulations},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5788--5797},
title = {{Control of ITCZ Width by Low‐Level Radiative Heating From Upper‐Level Clouds in Aquaplanet Simulations}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL078292},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Djehdian2019,
abstract = {Income and population growth increase demands for commodities such as food, energy, and water in cities. Water resources are used outside of cities to produce the food and energy goods that are eventually consumed in cities. In this way, urban water scarcity is impacted directly by local water shortages and indirectly by water scarcity in locations along the supply chain. Both direct and indirect water scarcity risks have important implications for urban water, food, and energy security. In this study, we develop a novel metric of the urban food–energy–water (FEW) nexus that quantifies both direct and indirect water scarcity exposure to urban areas. We quantify and visualize direct and indirect FEW water scarcity for 69 metropolitan statistical areas within the continental United States. We show that cities typically import commodities from nearby locations with similar water resource constraints, and generally have similar local and indirect water scarcity. In particular, cities in the western United States have scarce local water resources and also import commodities from other water-scarce western locations. This study improves our understanding of water scarcity exposure of critical food and energy resources in U.S. urban areas, enabling policy makers to improve the reliability of urban food and energy receipts.},
author = {Djehdian, Lucas A and Chini, Christopher M and Marston, Landon and Konar, Megan and Stillwell, Ashlynn S},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101621},
issn = {2210-6707},
journal = {Sustainable Cities and Society},
keywords = {Food–energy–water nexus,Urban water,Virtual water,Water scarcity},
pages = {101621},
title = {{Exposure of urban food–energy–water (FEW) systems to water scarcity}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210670718325654},
volume = {50},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Donat_2016,
abstract = {Intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to accompany a warming climate 1,2 . It has been suggested that changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation will amplify diierences between dry and wet regions 3,4 , but this has been disputed for changes over land 5–8 . Furthermore, precipitation changes may diier not only between regions but also between diierent aspects of precipitation, such as totals and extremes. Here we investigate changes in these two aspects in the world's dry and wet regions using observations and global climate models. Despite uncertainties in total precipitation changes, extreme daily precipitation averaged over both dry and wet regimes shows robust increases in both observations and climate models over the past six decades. Climate projections for the rest of the century show continued intensification of daily precipitation extremes. Increases in total and extreme precipitation in dry regions are linearly related to the model-specific global temperature change, so that the spread in projected global warming partly explains the spread in precipitation intensification in these regions by the late twenty-first century. This intensification has implications for the risk of flooding as the climate warms, particularly for the world's dry regions. Changes in global and regional precipitation characteristics are among the most relevant aspects of climate change in a warming world, yet there is little consensus on observed and expected changes in spatial precipitation patterns. In a warming climate, the global hydrological cycle is expected to intensify 1 , although increasing aerosol concentrations might counteract this effect 2 . Globally averaged, although no robust changes in precipitation totals could be observed 9 , detectable increases in precipitation extremes are found 10–12 , with further increases in extremes projected for the future 13,14 . However, spatial patterns of changes are heterogeneous, with different regions showing opposing trends 15 . It has been suggested that dry regions would become drier and the wet regions wetter when considering changes in the difference between precipitation and evaporation (P − E), because atmospheric moisture convergence and divergence are expected to increase in magnitude with increasing atmospheric moisture content in a warmer atmosphere 3 . This enhancement of the pattern of P − E with warming is found to hold in global climate model (GCM) simulations on large scales over the ocean 3 , consistent with observed changes in salinity 16 ; but it does not hold over land 7,8 , where surface moisture is limited, or locally over the ocean 7,17 . Furthermore, when classifying dry and wet regions by local precipitation amounts, such a wet-get-wetter–dry-get-drier pattern was not seen in observations over most global land areas 5,6 . Precipitation extremes may change differently from total precipitation. The simplest expectation is that precipitation extremes should scale with low-level atmospheric moisture content, which increases at a rate of about 6–7{\%} K −1 warming according to the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship 18 . However, the rate of increase of precipitation extremes is affected by multiple factors, including the vertical velocity profile and its changes 19 . Scaling of subdaily precipitation extremes in the current climate at higher rates than expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship has been reported for some locations 20 , but the extent to which this applies to climate change remains unclear. Global-mean changes in total precipitation, by contrast, are energetically constrained and expected to increase at a lower rate 1 . In simulations of global warming, extreme precipitation intensifies in both tropical and extratropical regions 14,19 . The rate of increase with warming remains uncertain in the tropics 21 , probably because of the sensitivity of simulated tropical rainfall extremes to the choice of convective parameterization 22 . Observations show that globally the number of heavy precipitation events has increased in more regions than it has decreased, although there is considerable variability in spatial trend patterns 12,15,23 . In preparation for possible future changes, it is important to understand how precipitation totals and extremes are changing in different regions. However, some degree of spatial aggregation or averaging is needed to find robust regional results, given large internal variability 24 . Instead of analysing changes for limited geographical regions 21,25 , or aggregating over latitude bands 26,27 , we focus on changes in spatial aggregations that represent different climatological characteristics of precipitation—focusing on the world's dry and wet regions. Similar approaches have been used previously for studying precipitation totals in wet and dry regions of the tropics 4,28 . This aggregation does not necessarily involve contiguous regions but rather includes grid cells depending on whether they are dry or wet regardless of their geographical location. Here we analyse changes in total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and annual-maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) in the HadEX2 observational data set 15 and in GCM simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. 29).},
annote = {more extreme rainfall in wet and dry regions when defined for 1950-1980 although this time period is unusual (large aerosol forcing) and changes in spatial pattern of wet/dry regions may be important [See critique by Sippel et al. (2016) HESS]},
author = {Donat, Markus G. and Lowry, Andrew L. and Alexander, Lisa V. and O'Gorman, Paul A. and Maher, Nicola},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2941},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {508--513},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fnclimate2941},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{dbwgkv16,
author = {Donchyts, Gennadii and Baart, Fedor and Winsemius, Hessel and Gorelick, Noel and Kwadijk, Jaap and van de Giesen, Nick},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3111},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {810--813},
title = {{Earth's surface water change over the past 30 years}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3111},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Dong2014JClim,
abstract = {AbstractIn this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model [the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2?Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)] has been used to investigate the impacts of regional anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions on boreal summer Sahel rainfall. The study focuses on the transient response of the West African monsoon (WAM) to a sudden change in regional anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions, including land surface feedbacks but without sea surface temperature (SST) feedbacks. The response occurs in two distinct phases: 1) fast adjustment of the atmosphere on a time scale of days to weeks (up to 3 weeks) through aerosol?radiation and aerosol?cloud interactions with weak hydrological cycle changes and surface feedbacks and 2) adjustment of the atmosphere and land surface with significant local hydrological cycle changes and changes in atmospheric circulation (beyond 3 weeks).European emissions lead to an increase in shortwave (SW) scattering by increased sulfate burden, leading to a decrease in surface downward SW radiation that causes surface cooling over North Africa, a weakening of the Saharan heat low and WAM, and a decrease in Sahel precipitation. In contrast, Asian emissions lead to very little change in sulfate burden over North Africa, but they induce an adjustment of the Walker circulation, which leads again to a weakening of the WAM and a decrease in Sahel precipitation. The responses to European and Asian emissions during the second phase exhibit similar large-scale patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and hydrological variables, suggesting a preferred response. The results support the idea that sulfate aerosol emissions contributed to the observed decline in Sahel precipitation in the second half of the twentieth century.},
annote = {Mechanistic modelling evidence that sulfate aerosol emissions contributed to the observed decline in Sahel precipitation in the second half of the twentieth century.},
author = {Dong, Buwen and Sutton, Rowan T. and Highwood, Ellie and Wilcox, Laura},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00769.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {7000--7017},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The impacts of European and Asian anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions on Sahel rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2Fjcli-d-13-00769.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Dong2017a,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Recent studies have shown considerable changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) since the early 1980s, but the causes of these changes remain unclear. In this study, the relative contributions of external climate forcing and internal climate variability to the recent ET changes are examined. Three datasets of global terrestrial ET and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean ET are analyzed, respectively, to quantify the apparent and externally-forced ET changes, while the unforced ET variations are estimated as the apparent ET minus the forced component. Large discrepancies of the ET estimates, in terms of their trend, variability, and temperature- and precipitation-dependence, are found among the three datasets. Results show that the forced global-mean ET exhibits an upward trend of 0.08 mm day −1 century −1 from 1982 to 2010. The forced ET also contains considerable multi-year to decadal variations during the latter half of the 20th century that are caused by volcanic aerosols. The spatial patterns and interannual variations of the forced ET are more closely linked to precipitation than temperature. After removing the forced component, the global-mean ET shows a trend ranging from −0.07 to 0.06 mm day −1 century −1 during 1982–2010 with varying spatial patterns among the three datasets. Furthermore, linkages between the unforced ET and internal climate modes are examined. Variations in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are found to be consistently correlated with ET over many land areas among the ET datasets. The results suggest that there are large uncertainties in our current estimates of global terrestrial ET for the recent decades, and the greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol external forcings account for a large part of the apparent trend in global-mean terrestrial ET since 1982, but Pacific SST and other internal climate variability dominate recent ET variations and changes over most regions.},
author = {Dong, Bo and Dai, Aiguo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3342-x},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CMIP5,Climate variability,ET trend,Evapotranspiration,IPO,Pacific SST},
number = {1-2},
pages = {279--296},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{The uncertainties and causes of the recent changes in global evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2010}},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dong2018b,
abstract = {Atmospheric blocking is a long standing structure stalled in the mid-troposphere which is often associated with extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves, flood and cold air outbreak. A striking atmospheric blocking is identified to persist over the US during 13-17 August 2007, exacerbating the existing drought over the Southeastern US. This pronounced blocking event not only intensified the concurrent drought conditions, but also led to a record-breaking heatwave over the Southeast of the US. The excessive heat observed during this heatwave is attributable to the subsidence-associated adiabatic warming as well as the dry-and-warm air advection over Alabama and the neighboring states. At the local scale, we choose Birmingham, AL, as the study area for exploring the blocking influence on urban heat island. Based on the remote sensing data, the surface (skin) urban heat island is found to be 8 °C in this area on the block-onset day. This provides partial evidences that the surface urban heat island intensity is likely amplified by the blocking-induced heat waves. The present work provides a unique case study in which blocking, drought, heatwave and urban heat island all occur concurrently, and interplay across a spectrum of spatial scales. We conclude that atmospheric blocking is capable of reinforcing droughts, initiating heatwaves, and probably amplifying the urban heat island intensity during the concurrent period.},
author = {Dong, Li and Mitra, Chandana and Greer, Seth and Burt, Ethan},
doi = {10.3390/ATMOS9010033},
issn = {20734433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
keywords = {Atmospheric blocking,Drought,Extreme weather events,Heatwaves,Multiple scale,Urban heat island},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {33},
publisher = {MDPI AG},
title = {{The dynamical linkage of atmospheric blocking to drought, heatwave and urban heat island in southeastern US: A multi-scale case study}},
url = {www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dong2018,
author = {Dong, Lu and Leung, L. Ruby and Song, Fengfei and Lu, Jian},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0062.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {8039--8058},
title = {{Roles of SST versus Internal Atmospheric Variability in Winter Extreme Precipitation Variability along the U.S. West Coast}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0062.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dong2015,
abstract = {Sahelian summer rainfall, controlled by the West African monsoon, exhibited large-amplitude multidecadal variability during the twentieth century. Particularly important was the severe drought of the 1970s and 1980s, which had widespread impacts1–6 . Research into the causes of this drought has identified anthropogenic aerosol forcing3,4,7 and changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs; refs 1,2,6,8–11) as the most important drivers. Since the 1980s, there has been some recovery of Sahel rainfall amounts2–6,11–14 , although not to the pre-drought levels of the 1940s and 1950s. Here we report on experiments with the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art global climate model to identify the causes of this recovery. Our results suggest that the direct influence of higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was the main cause, with an additional role for changes in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions. We find that recent changes in SSTs, although substantial, did not have a significant impact on the recovery. The simulated response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas and aerosol forcing is consistent with a multivariate fingerprint of the observed recovery, raising confidence in our findings. Although robust predictions are not yet possible, our results suggest that the recent recovery in Sahel rainfall amounts is most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term.},
author = {Dong, Buwen and Sutton, Rowan},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2664},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric science,Attribution,Hydrology},
month = {jun},
number = {8},
pages = {757--760},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2664 http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2664},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Dong2017,
author = {Dong, Buwen and Sutton, Rowan T. and Shaffrey, Len and Klingaman, Nicholas P.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0578.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6203--6223},
title = {{Attribution of Forced Decadal Climate Change in Coupled and Uncoupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model Experiments}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0578.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dong2019c,
abstract = {The mean precipitation along the U.S. West Coast exhibits a pronounced seasonality change under warming. Here we explore the characteristics of the seasonality change and investigate the underlying mechanisms, with a focus on quantifying the roles of moisture (thermodynamic) versus circulation (dynamic). The multimodel simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show a simple "wet-get-wetter" response over Washington and Oregon but a sharpened seasonal cycle marked by a stronger and narrower wet season over California. Moisture budget analysis shows that changes in both regions are predominantly caused by changes in the mean moisture convergence. The thermodynamic effect due to the mass convergence of increased moisture dominates the wet-get-wetter response over Washington and Oregon. In contrast, mean zonal moisture advection due to seasonally dependent changes in land-sea moisture contrast originating from the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relation dominates the sharpened wet season over California. More specifically, the stronger climatological land-sea thermal contrast in winter with warmer ocean than land results in more moisture increase over ocean than land under warming and hence wet advection to California. However, in fall and spring, the future change of land-sea thermal contrast with larger warming over land than ocean induces an opposite moisture gradient and hence dry advection to California. These results have important implications for projecting changes in the hydrological cycle of the U.S. West Coast.},
author = {Dong, Lu and Leung, L. Ruby and Lu, Jian and Song, Fengfei},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0093.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {15},
pages = {4681--4698},
title = {{Mechanisms for an amplified precipitation seasonal cycle in the u.s. west coast under global warming}},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Donohoe2017,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Donohoe, Aaron and Voigt, Aiko},
booktitle = {Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms},
doi = {10.1002/9781119068020.ch8},
editor = {Wang, S.-Y. Simon and Yoon, Jin-Ho and Funk, Christopher C. and Gillies, Robert R.},
month = {jun},
pages = {115--137},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},
title = {{Why Future Shifts in Tropical Precipitation Will Likely Be Small: The Location of the Tropical Rain Belt and the Hemispheric Contrast of Energy Input to the Atmosphere}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119068020.ch8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Donohoe2013,
abstract = {The authors quantify the relationship between the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the atmospheric heat transport across the equator (AHTEQ) in climate models and in observations. The observed zonal mean ITCZ location varies from 5.38S in the boreal winter to 7.28Nin the boreal summer with an annual mean position of 1.658Nwhile theAHTEQ varies from 2.1PWnorthward in the boreal winter to 2.3 PW southward in the boreal summer with an annual mean of 0.1 PW southward. Seasonal variations in the ITCZ location and AHTEQ are highly anticorrelated in the observations and in a suite of state-of-the-art coupled climate models with regression coefficients of22.78 and22.48PW21 respectively. It is also found that seasonal variations in ITCZ location and AHTEQ are well correlated in a suite of slab ocean aquaplanet simulations with varying ocean mixed layer depths. However, the regression coefficient between ITCZ location and AHTEQ decreases with decreasing mixed layer depth as a consequence of the asymmetry that develops between the winter and summer Hadley cells as the ITCZ moves farther off the equator. The authors go on to analyze the annual mean change in ITCZ location and AHTEQ in an ensemble of climate perturbation experiments including the response to CO2 doubling, simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, and simulations of the mid-Holocene. The shift in the annual average ITCZ location is also strongly anticorrelated with the change in annual meanAHTEQ with a regression coefficient of23.28PW21, similar to that found over the seasonal cycle.},
author = {Donohoe, Aaron and Marshall, John and Ferreira, David and Mcgee, David},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00467.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {11},
pages = {3597--3618},
title = {{The relationship between ITCZ location and cross-equatorial atmospheric heat transport: From the seasonal cycle to the last glacial maximum}},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Donohue2013,
abstract = {Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe over recent decades. The role in this greening of the "CO2 fertilization" effect-the enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levels-is yet to be established. The direct CO2 effect on vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14{\%} increase in atmospheric CO2 (1982-2010) led to a 5 to 10{\%} increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations, analyzed to remove the effect of variations in precipitation, show that cover across these environments has increased by 11{\%}. Our results confirm that the anticipated CO2 fertilization effect is occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the carbon cycle and that the fertilization effect is now a significant land surface process. Key Points We examine, for a set rainfall, the maximum foliage cover observable by satellite In warm, dry places, such maximum cover has risen by 11{\%} globally (1982-2010) We show a physical and quantitative link between this rise and CO2 fertilization {\textcopyright}2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Donohue, Randall J. and Roderick, Michael L. and McVicar, Tim R. and Farquhar, Graham D.},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50563},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {AVHRR,CO2 fertilisation,cover},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {3031--3035},
title = {{Impact of CO2 fertilization on maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/grl.50563},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{DosSantos2018,
abstract = {Accelerated land use changes in the Brazilian Amazonian region over the last four decades have raised questions about potential consequences for local hydrology. Under the hypothesis of a lack of frontier governance, projections of future changes in the Amazon basin suggest that 20–30{\%} or more of this basin could be deforested in the next 40 years. This could trigger a cascade of negative impacts on water resources. In this study, we examined how a future conversion of the forest into pasture would influence streamflow and water balance components by using a conceptual and semi-distributed hydrological model in a large (142,000 km2) forested basin: specifically, the Iriri River basin in the Brazilian Amazon. The results showed that the land use change could substantially alter the water balance components of the originally forested basin. For example, an increase of over 57{\%} in pasture areas increased a simulated annual streamflow by {\~{}}6.5{\%} and had a significant impact on evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and percolation. Our findings emphasize the importance of protected areas for conservation strategies in the Brazilian Amazonian region.},
author = {{Dos Santos}, Vanessa and Laurent, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Abe, Camila and Messner, Fran{\c{c}}ois},
doi = {10.3390/w10040429},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {Amazon,Land use change,SWAT model,Streamflow,Water balance components},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {429},
title = {{Hydrologic Response to Land Use Change in a Large Basin in Eastern Amazon}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/4/429},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dosio2015,
abstract = {satisfactorily the annual and sub-annual principal compo-nents of the precipitation time series over the Guinea Gulf, whereas the GCMs are in general not able to simulate the bimodal distribution due to the passage of the WAM and show a unimodal precipitation annual cycle. Furthermore, it is shown that CCLM is able to better reproduce the prob-ability distribution function of precipitation and some impact-relevant indices such as the number of consecutive wet and dry days, and the frequency of heavy rain events.},
author = {Dosio, Alessandro and Panitz, Hans-J{\"{u}}rgen and Schubert-Frisius, Martina and L{\"{u}}thi, Daniel},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2262-x},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Added value,CMIP5 GCMs,CORDEX-Africa,COSMO-CLM regional climate model},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2637--2661},
title = {{Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global circulation models over CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM: evaluation over the present climate and analysis of the added value}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2262-x},
volume = {44},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Dou2017,
author = {Dou, Juan and Wu, Zhiwei and Zhou, Yefan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3380-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {1257--1269},
title = {{Potential impact of the May Southern Hemisphere annular mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3380-4},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Douville2018,
abstract = {Assessing the ability of atmospheric models to capture observed climate variations when driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice concentration (SIC) and radiative forcings is a prerequisite for the feasibility of near term climate predictions. Here we achieve ensembles of global atmospheric simulations to assess and attribute the reproducibility of the boreal winter atmospheric circulation against the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA20C). Our control experiment is driven by the observed SST/SIC from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. It is compared to a similar ensemble performed with the ECMWF model as a first step toward ERA20C. Moreover, a two-tier methodology is used to disentangle externally-forced versus internal variations in the observed SST/SIC boundary conditions and run additional ensembles allowing us to attribute the observed atmospheric variability. The focus is mainly on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability which is more reproducible in our model than in the ECMWF model. This result is partly due to the simulation of a positive NAO trend across the full 1920--2014 integration period. In line with former studies, this trend might be mediated by a circumglobal teleconnection mechanism triggered by increasing precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Surprisingly, this response is mainly related to the internal SST variability and is not found in the ECMWF model driven by an alternative SST dataset showing a weaker TIO warming in the first half of the twentieth century. Our results may reconcile the twentieth century observations with the twenty-first century projections of the NAO. They should be however considered with caution given the limited size of our ensembles, the possible influence of other sources of NAO variability, and the uncertainties in the tropical SST trend and breakdown between internal versus externally-forced variability.},
author = {Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Ribes, A. and Tyteca, S.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4141-3},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Attribution,Multidecadal variability,North Atlantic oscillation,Reproducibility},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {29--48},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Breakdown of NAO reproducibility into internal versus externally-forced components: a two-tier pilot study}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4141-3 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4141-3},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Douville2020b,
abstract = {Projected changes in global to regional precipitation remain highly model-dependent and are driven by both fast atmospheric adjustments and slower ocean-mediated responses to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Understanding the relative influence of these multiple drivers is one of the main objectives of the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project. Here the focus is on the daily precipitation response to an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2, as simulated by the CNRM-CM6-1 global climate model. Extended atmosphere-only experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) are used to decompose the precipitation changes into separate responses to uniform SST warming, the pattern of SST anomalies, as well as fast radiative and physiological CO2 effects. The uniform SST warming dominates the global and regional changes in annual mean and annual maximum daily precipitation intensity. In contrast, the annual mean number of wet days and the annual maximum of consecutive dry days show a strong fast adjustment. They are also sensitive to the SST warming pattern that strongly influences changes in large-scale circulation. The increase in daily precipitation intensity drives the global-mean magnitude of the annual precipitation change. In contrast, the response of wet day frequency shapes the geographical distribution and interannual variability of the annual mean precipitation, especially in the subtropics, and is more sensitive to changes in near-surface relative humidity than in the total water column over land. Although the annual precipitation response does not seem highly sensitive to the base state, these results deserve further investigation and model intercomparison within CFMIP.},
annote = {Based on 4xCO2 CMIP6 simulations, warming drives increases in precipitation amount and mean intensity while frequency is dominated by rapid atmospheric adjustments to the radiative forcing.},
author = {Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and John, A.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05522-w},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate change,Drivers,Fre,Intensity,Precipitation,climate change,drivers,extremes,frequency,intensity},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1083--1104},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Fast adjustment versus slow SST-mediated response of daily precipitation statistics to abrupt 4xCO2}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05522-w},
volume = {56},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Douville2020a,
abstract = {Projected changes in near-surface relative humidity (RH) remain highly model-dependent over land and may have been underestimated by the former generation global climate models. Here the focus in on the recent CNRM-CM6-1 model, which shows an enhanced land surface drying in response to quadrupled atmospheric CO2 compared to its CNRM-CM5 predecessor. Atmosphere-only experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) are used to decompose the simulated RH changes into separate responses to uniform SST warming, pattern of SST anomalies, changes in sea-ice concentration, as well as direct radiative and physiological CO2 effects. Results show that the strong drying simulated by CNRM-CM6-1 is due to both fast CO2 effects and a SST-mediated response. The enhanced drying compared to CNRM-CM5 is partly due to the introduction of the physiological CO2 effect that was not accounted for in CNRM-CM5. The global ocean warming also contributes to the RH decline over land, in reasonable agreement with the moisture advection mechanism proposed by earlier studies which however does not fully capture the contrasted RH response between the two CNRM models. The SST anomaly pattern is a significant driver of changes in RH humidity at the regional scale, which are partly explained by changes in atmospheric circulation. The improved land surface model may also contribute to a stronger soil moisture feedback in CNRM-CM6-1, which can amplify the surface aridity induced by global warming and, thereby, lead to a non-linear response of RH.},
author = {Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Decharme, B. and Delire, C. and Colin, J. and Joetzjer, E. and Roehrig, R. and Saint-Martin, D. and Oudar, T. and Stchepounoff, R. and Voldoire, A.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05351-x},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate change,Drivers,Drying,Land,Relative humidity},
month = {jun},
number = {0123456789},
pages = {1613--1629},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Drivers of the enhanced decline of land near-surface relative humidity to abrupt 4xCO2 in CNRM-CM6-1}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05351-x},
volume = {55},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Douville2017,
abstract = {Early assessments of the hydrological impacts of global warming suggested both an intensification of the global water cycle and an expansion of dry areas. Yet these alarming conclusions were challenged...What will be the consequence of global warming on regional soil moisture at the end of the 21st century? The response found in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...},
author = {Douville, H. and Plazzotta, M.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075353},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {attribution,climate change,emerging constraint,land surface },
number = {19},
pages = {9967--9975},
title = {{Midlatitude Summer Drying: An Underestimated Threat in CMIP5 Models?}},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Douville2012,
author = {Douville, H and Ribes, A and Decharme, B and Alkama, R and Sheffield, J},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1632},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {59--62},
publisher = {Nature Climate Change},
title = {{Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1632},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Dowdy2019,
abstract = {Intense cyclones often result in severe impacts on mid-latitude coastal regions of southeastern Australia, including those due to associated natural hazards such as extreme winds, ocean waves, storm surges, precipitation, flooding, erosion, lightning and tornadoes in some cases. These low-pressure systems, known as east coast lows (ECLs), have been examined in a wide range of different studies, with considerable variations between such studies in what they consider to be an ECL, and their findings on the characteristics of these storm systems. Here we present reviews of literature and other information such as operational forecasting approaches, which are then used to produce a comprehensive synthesis of knowledge on ECLs and associated weather and ocean extremes. This includes aspects such as their definition, formation, meteorology, climatology and drivers of variability from short-term weather time scales up to long-term historical climate trends and future projections. Australian ECLs are also considered here in relation to similar phenomena from other regions of the world. A definition based on this synthesis of knowledge is as follows: ECLs are cyclones near southeastern Australia that can be caused by both mid-latitude and tropical influences over a range of levels in the atmosphere; Intense ECLs have at least one major hazard associated with their occurrence, including extreme winds, waves, rain or flooding. Knowledge gaps are examined and used to provide recommendations for future research priorities. This study is intended to lead to improved guidance and preparedness in relation to the impacts of these storms.},
author = {Dowdy, Andrew J. and Pepler, Acacia and {Di Luca}, Alejandro and Cavicchia, Leone and Mills, Graham and Evans, Jason P. and Louis, Simon and McInnes, Kathleen L. and Walsh, Kevin},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04836-8},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate,Cyclones,Extreme,Hazards,Weather},
number = {7},
pages = {4887--4910},
title = {{Review of Australian east coast low pressure systems and associated extremes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04836-8},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dowdy2020,
abstract = {The thunderstorm climatology of Australia is examined, including convective rainfall events. Lightning observations are used to train a systematic method for indicating thunderstorm activity, with the method applied to environmental variables obtained from reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016. A range of maps showing seasonal averages in thunderstorm conditions as well as associated rainfall are presented. Long-term climate change trends are also examined, as well as the influence of large-scale drivers such as the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode. Rainfall observations are examined for days on which thunderstorm activity is indicated based on this method, enabling new insight on convection-related rainfall. Low rainfall days are also used to examine the climatology of dry lightning as this is important for understanding the risk of wildfire ignitions. A long-term decrease in thunderstorm activity is indicated for many regions of Australia, as well as some regions of increase. The results also indicate a long-term increase in thunderstorm-related rainfall, noting implications for water availability, design standards and flood risk factors. The findings for northern Australia help provide insight on some aspects of the Australian monsoon, including based on a reduced frequency of days with convective environments as well as indicating an increased intensity of convective rainfall events. An increase in convective rainfall is indicated for both northern and southern Australia, while for non-convective rainfall the results indicate an increase in northern Australia and a decrease in southern Australia. Long-term changes in dry lightning events are also identified, depending on the region and season, noting implications for wildfire management.},
author = {Dowdy, Andrew J},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05167-9},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {5},
pages = {3041--3052},
title = {{Climatology of thunderstorms, convective rainfall and dry lightning environments in Australia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05167-9},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Drake2006,
abstract = {The Sahara Desert is the most extensive desert on Earth but during the Holocene it was home to some of the largest freshwater lakes on Earth; of these, palaeolake Megachad was the biggest. Landsat TM images and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital topographic data reveal numerous shorelines around palaeolake Megachad. At its peak sometime before 7000 years ago the lake was over 173 m deep with an area of at least 400 000 km 2 , bigger than the Caspian Sea, the biggest lake on Earth today. The morphology of the shorelines indicates two dominant winds, one northeasterly that is consistent with the present-day winds in the region. The other originated from the southwest. We attribute it to an enhanced monsoon caused by a precessionally driven increase in Northern Hemisphere insolation. Subsequent desiccation of the palaeolake is recorded by numerous regressive shorelines in the Sahara Desert.},
author = {Drake, Nick and Bristow, Charlie},
doi = {10.1191/0959683606hol981rr},
isbn = {0959-6836},
issn = {09596836},
journal = {Holocene},
keywords = {Beach ridges,Chad,DEM,Holocene,Lake,Remote sensing,Spits},
pages = {901--911},
title = {{Shorelines in the Sahara: Geomorphological evidence for an enhanced monsoon from palaeolake Megachad}},
volume = {16},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Drijfhout2015,
abstract = {Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occurmore often forwarming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.},
author = {Drijfhout, Sybren and Bathiany, Sebastian and Beaulieu, Claudie and Brovkin, Victor and Claussen, Martin and Huntingford, Chris and Scheffer, Marten and Sgubin, Giovanni and Swingedouw, Didier},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1511451112},
isbn = {0027-8424},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {43},
pages = {E5777--E5786},
pmid = {26460042},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26460042},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Driver2017,
author = {Driver, P. and Reason, C. J. C.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5022},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {aug},
pages = {570--581},
title = {{Variability in the Botswana High and its relationships with rainfall and temperature characteristics over southern Africa}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5022},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Drobinski2018b,
abstract = {In this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979–2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation across the various models, the change in precipitation extremes with respect to temperature is robust and consistent. The spatial variability of the temperature–precipitation extremes relationship displays a hook shape across the Mediterranean, with negative slope at high temperatures and a slope following Clausius–Clapeyron (CC)-scaling at low temperatures. The temperature at which the slope of the temperature–precipitation extreme relation sharply changes (or temperature break), ranges from about 20 °C in the western Mediterranean to {\textless}10 °C in Greece. In addition, this slope is always negative in the arid regions of the Mediterranean. The scaling of the simulated precipitation extremes is insensitive to ocean–atmosphere coupling, while it depends very weakly on the resolution at high temperatures for short precipitation accumulation times. In future climate scenario simulations covering the 2070–2100 period, the temperature break shifts to higher temperatures by a value which is on average the mean regional temperature change due to global warming. The slope of the simulated future temperature–precipitation extremes relationship is close to CC-scaling at temperatures below the temperature break, while at high temperatures, the negative slope is close, but somewhat flatter or steeper, than in the current climate depending on the model. Overall, models predict more intense precipitation extremes in the future. Adjusting the temperature–precipitation extremes relationship in the present climate using the CC law and the temperature shift in the future allows the recovery of the temperature–precipitation extremes relationship in the future climate. This implies negligible regional changes of relative humidity in the future despite the large warming and drying over the Mediterranean. This suggests that the Mediterranean Sea is the primary source of moisture which counteracts the drying and warming impacts on relative humidity in parts of the Mediterranean region.},
author = {Drobinski, Philippe and Silva, Nicolas Da and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Bastin, Sophie and Muller, Caroline and Ahrens, Bodo and Borga, Marco and Conte, Dario and Fosser, Giorgia and Giorgi, Filippo and G{\"{u}}ttler, Ivan and Kotroni, Vassiliki and Li, Laurent and Morin, Efrat and {\"{O}}nol, Bariş and Quintana-Segui, Pere and Romera, Raquel and Torma, Csaba Zsolt},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3083-x},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Clausius–Clapeyron scaling,Europe,HyMeX,MED-CORDEX,Mediterranean,Precipitation s,Regional climate},
number = {3},
pages = {1237--1257},
title = {{Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3083-x},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Drumond2014,
abstract = {Abstract. We used a Lagrangian model (FLEXPART) together with the 1979–2012 ERA-Interim reanalysis data to investigate the role of the moisture in the Amazon Basin in the regional hydrological budget over the course of the year. FLEXPART computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along forward and backward trajectories. The tropical Atlantic is the most important remote moisture source for the Amazon Basin. The tropical North Atlantic (NA) mainly contributed during the austral summer, while the contribution of the tropical South Atlantic (SA) prevailed for the remainder of the year. At the same time, the moisture contribution from the Amazon Basin itself is mainly for moisture supplying the southeastern South America. The 33-year temporal domain allowed the investigation of some aspects of the interannual variability of the moisture transport over the basin, such as the role of the El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) on the hydrological budget. During the peak of the Amazonian rainy season (from February to May, FMAM) the AMM is associated more with the interannual variations in the contribution from the tropical Atlantic sources, while the transport from the basin towards the subtropics responds more to the ENSO variability. The moisture contribution prevailed from the SA (NA) region in the years dominated by El Ni{\~{n}}o/positive AMM (La Ni{\~{n}}a/negative AMM) conditions. The transport from the Amazon towards the subtropics increased (reduced) during El Ni{\~{n}}o (La Ni{\~{n}}a) years.},
author = {Drumond, A. and Marengo, J. and Ambrizzi, T. and Nieto, R. and Moreira, L. and Gimeno, L.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-18-2577-2014},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {2577--2598},
title = {{The role of the Amazon Basin moisture in the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle: a Lagrangian analysis}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/18/2577/2014/},
volume = {18},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Dudley2017,
abstract = {Changes in snowmelt-related streamflow timing have implications for water availability and use as well as ecologically relevant shifts in streamflow. Historical trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing (winter-spring center volume date, WSCVD) were computed for minimally disturbed river basins in the conterminous United States. WSCVD was computed by summing daily streamflow for a seasonal window then calculating the day that half of the seasonal volume had flowed past the gage. We used basins where at least 30 percent of annual precipitation was received as snow, and streamflow data were restricted to regionally based winter-spring periods to focus the analyses on snowmelt-related streamflow. Trends over time in WSCVD at gages in the eastern U.S. were relatively homogenous in magnitude and direction and statistically significant; median WSCVD was earlier by 8.2 days (1.1 days/decade) and 8.6 days (1.6 days/decade) for 1940–2014 and 1960–2014 periods respectively. Fewer trends in the West were significant though most trends indicated earlier WSCVD over time. Trends at low-to-mid elevation ({\textless}1600 m) basins in the West, predominantly located in the Northwest, had median earlier WSCVD by 6.8 days (1940–2014, 0.9 days/decade) and 3.4 days (1960–2014, 0.6 days/decade). Streamflow timing at high-elevation (⩾1600 m) basins in the West had median earlier WSCVD by 4.0 days (1940–2014, 0.5 days/decade) and 5.2 days (1960–2014, 0.9 days/decade). Trends toward earlier WSCVD in the Northwest were not statistically significant, differing from previous studies that observed many large and (or) significant trends in this region. Much of this difference is likely due to the sensitivity of trend tests to the time period being tested, as well as differences in the streamflow timing metrics used among the studies. Mean February–May air temperature was significantly correlated with WSCVD at 100 percent of the study gages (field significant, p {\textless} 0.0001), demonstrating the sensitivity of WSCVD to air temperature across snowmelt dominated basins in the U.S. WSCVD in high elevation basins in the West, however, was related to both air temperature and precipitation yielding earlier snowmelt-related streamflow timing under warmer and drier conditions.},
author = {Dudley, R. W. and Hodgkins, G. A. and McHale, M. R. and Kolian, M. J. and Renard, B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.051},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Climate,Hydrology,Snowmelt,Streamflow,Trends},
month = {apr},
pages = {208--221},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing in the conterminous United States}},
volume = {547},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dufour2016,
abstract = {The atmospheric water cycle of the Arctic is evaluated via seven global reanalyses and in radiosonde observations covering the 1979-2013 period. In the regional moisture budget, evaporation and precipitation are the least consistent terms among different datasets. Despite the assimilation of radiosoundings, the reanalyses present a tendency to overestimate the moisture transport. Aside from this overestimation, the reanalyses exhibit a remarkable agreement with the radiosondes in terms of spatial and temporal patterns. The northern North Atlantic, subpolar North Pacific, and Labrador Sea stand out as the main gateways for moisture to the Arctic in all reanalyses. Because these regions correspond to the end of the storm tracks, the link between moisture transports and extratropical cyclones is further investigated by decomposing the moisture fluxes in the mean flow and transient eddy parts. In all reanalyses, the former term tends to cancel out when averaged over a latitude circle, leaving the latter to provide the bulk of the midlatitude moisture imports (89{\%}-94{\%} at 70°N). Although the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the world, the impact of these changes on its water cycle remains ambiguous. In most datasets, evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water increase in line with what is expected from a warming signal. At the same time, the moisture transports have decreased in all the reanalyses but not in the radiosonde observations, though none of these trends is statistically significant. The fluxes do not scale with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation because the increasing humidity is not correlated with the meridional wind, particularly near the surface.},
author = {Dufour, Ambroise and Zolina, Olga and Gulev, Sergey K.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0559.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Arctic,Circulation/ dynamics,Geographic location/entity,Hydrologic cycle,Models and modeling,Observational techniques and algorithms,Radiosonde observations,Reanalysis data,Transport},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {5061--5081},
title = {{Atmospheric Moisture Transport to the Arctic: Assessment of Reanalyses and Analysis of Transport Components}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0559.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Dunn2017ESD,
abstract = {Abstract. We compare the latest observational land surface humidity dataset, HadISDH, with the latest generation of climate models extracted from the CMIP5 archive and the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the period 1973 to present. The globally averaged behaviour of HadISDH and ERA-Interim are very similar in both humidity measures and air temperature, on decadal and interannual timescales. The global average relative humidity shows a gradual increase from 1973 to 2000, followed by a steep decline in recent years. The observed specific humidity shows a steady increase in the global average during the early period but in the later period it remains approximately constant. None of the CMIP5 models or experiments capture the observed behaviour of the relative or specific humidity over the entire study period. When using an atmosphere-only model, driven by observed sea surface temperatures and radiative forcing changes, the behaviour of regional average temperature and specific humidity are better captured, but there is little improvement in the relative humidity. Comparing the observed climatologies with those from historical model runs shows that the models are generally cooler everywhere, are drier and less saturated in the tropics and extra-tropics, and have comparable moisture levels but are more saturated in the high latitudes. The spatial pattern of linear trends is relatively similar between the models and HadISDH for temperature and specific humidity, but there are large differences for relative humidity, with less moistening shown in the models over the tropics and very little at high latitudes. The observed drying in mid-latitudes is present at a much lower magnitude in the CMIP5 models. Relationships between temperature and humidity anomalies (T–q and T–rh) show good agreement for specific humidity between models and observations, and between the models themselves, but much poorer for relative humidity. The T–q correlation from the models is more steeply positive than the observations in all regions, and this over-correlation may be due to missing processes in the models. The observed temporal behaviour appears to be a robust climate feature rather than observational error. It has been previously documented and is theoretically consistent with faster warming rates over land compared to oceans. Thus, the poor replication in the models, especially in the atmosphere-only model, leads to questions over future projections of impacts related to changes in surface relative humidity. It also precludes any formal detection and attribution assessment.},
author = {Dunn, Robert J.H. and Willett, Kate M. and Ciavarella, Andrew and Stott, Peter A.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-8-719-2017},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {719--747},
publisher = {Copernicus {\{}GmbH{\}}},
title = {{Comparison of land surface humidity between observations and CMIP5 models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194{\%}2Fesd-8-719-2017 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/719/2017/},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dunn-Sigouin2013a,
abstract = {Northern Hemisphere (NH) blocking climatology is examined using a subset of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Both historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 integrations are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the CMIP5 models and to identify possible changes in NH blocking frequency and duration in a warmer climate. Comparison with reanalysis data reveals that CMIP5 models can reproduce the NH blocking climatology reasonably well, although the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blockings, particularly those with relatively short duration, is significantly underestimated during the cold season. In most models, overestimation of the Pacific blocking frequency is also evident for all durations throughout the year. In comparison to historical integrations, RCP 8.5 integrations show significant decreases in blocking frequency over both the North Pacific and north Atlantic regions, with a hint of increasing blocking frequency over western Russia. However, there is no noticeable change in the duration of individual blocking events for all durations. Key PointsCMIP5 models underestimate Euro-Atlantic blocking frequencyCMIP5 models overestimate North Pacific blocking frequencyBoth Atlantic and Pacific blocking frequencies would decrease in a warm climate {\textcopyright}2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne and Son, Seok Woo},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50143},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {3},
pages = {1179--1188},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere blocking frequency and duration in the CMIP5 models}},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Dunning2018JClim,
abstract = {Changes in the seasonality of precipitation over Africa have high potential for detrimental socioeconomic impacts due to high societal dependence upon seasonal rainfall. Here, for the first time we conduct a continental-scale analysis of changes in wet season characteristics under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projection scenarios across an ensemble of CMIP5 models using an objective methodology to determine the onset and cessation of the wet season. A delay in the wet season over West Africa and the Sahel of over 5–10 days on average, and later onset of the wet season over southern Africa, is identified and associated with increasing strength of the Saharan heat low in late boreal summer and a northward shift in the position of the tropical rain belt over August–December. Over the Horn of Africa rainfall during the “short rains” season is projected to increase by over 100 mm on average by the end of the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Average rainfall per rainy day is projected to increase, while the number of rainy days in the wet season declines in regions of stable or declining rainfall (western and southern Africa) and remains constant in central Africa, where rainfall is projected to increase. Adaptation strategies should account for shorter wet seasons, increasing rainfall intensity, and decreasing rainfall frequency, which will have implications for crop yields and surface water supplies.},
author = {Durack, Paul J.},
doi = {10.5670/oceanog.2015.03},
issn = {10428275},
journal = {Oceanography},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {20--31},
publisher = {The Oceanography Society},
title = {{Ocean salinity and the global water cycle}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2015.03},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{durack_wijffels_2010,
abstract = {Using over 1.6 million profiles of salinity, potential temperature, and neutral density from historical archives and the international Argo Program, this study develops the three-dimensional field of multidecadal linear change for ocean-state properties. The period of analysis extends from 1950 to 2008, taking care to minimize the aliasing associated with the seasonal and major global El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation modes. Large, robust, and spatially coherent multidecadal linear trends in salinity to 2000-dbar depth are found. Salinity increases at the sea surface are found in evaporation-dominated regions and freshening in precipitation-dominated regions, with the spatial pattern of change strongly resembling that of the mean salinity field, consistent with an amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Subsurface salinity changes on pressure surfaces are attributable to both isopycnal heave and real water-mass modification of the temperature–salinity relationship. Subduction and circulation by the ocean's mean flow of surface salinity and temperature anomalies appear to account for most regional subsurface salinity changes on isopycnals. Broad-scale surface warming and the associated poleward migration of isopycnal outcrops drive a clear and repeating pattern of subsurface isopycnal salinity change in each independent ocean basin. Qualitatively, the observed global multidecadal salinity changes are thus consonant with both broad-scale surface warming and the amplification of the global hydrological cycle.},
author = {Durack, Paul J. and Wijffels, Susan E.},
doi = {10.1175/2010JCLI3377.1},
issn = {1520-0442},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {ENSO,Global warming,Salinity,Trends},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {4342--4362},
title = {{Fifty-Year Trends in Global Ocean Salinities and Their Relationship to Broad-Scale Warming}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2010JCLI3377.1},
volume = {23},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Dussaillant2019a,
abstract = {Andean glaciers are among the fastest shrinking and largest contributors to sea level rise on Earth. They also represent crucial water resources in many tropical and semi-arid mountain catchments. Yet the magnitude of the recent ice loss is still debated. Here we present Andean glacier mass changes (from 10° N to 56° S) between 2000 and 2018 using time series of digital elevation models derived from ASTER stereo images. The total mass change over this period was −22.9 ± 5.9 Gt yr−1 (−0.72 ± 0.22 m w.e. yr−1 (m w.e., metres of water equivalent)), with the most negative mass balances in the Patagonian Andes (−0.78 ± 0.25 m w.e. yr−1) and the Tropical Andes (−0.42 ± 0.24 m w.e. yr−1), compared to relatively moderate losses (−0.28 ± 0.18 m w.e. yr−1) in the Dry Andes. Subperiod analysis (2000–2009 versus 2009–2018) revealed a steady mass loss in the tropics and south of 45° S. Conversely, a shift from a slightly positive to a strongly negative mass balance was measured between 26 and 45° S. In the latter region, the drastic glacier loss in recent years coincides with the extremely dry conditions since 2010 and partially helped to mitigate the negative hydrological impacts of this severe and sustained drought. These results provide a comprehensive, high-resolution and multidecadal data set of recent Andes-wide glacier mass changes that constitutes a relevant basis for the calibration and validation of hydrological and glaciological models intended to project future glacier changes and their hydrological impacts.},
author = {Dussaillant, I and Berthier, E and Brun, F and Masiokas, M and Hugonnet, R and Favier, V and Rabatel, A and Pitte, P and Ruiz, L},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0432-5},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {10},
pages = {802--808},
title = {{Two decades of glacier mass loss along the Andes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0432-5},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dutt2015,
author = {Dutt, Som and Gupta, Anil K. and Clemens, Steven C. and Cheng, Hai and Singh, Raj K. and Kathayat, Gayatri and Edwards, R. Lawrence},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064015},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {5526--5532},
title = {{Abrupt changes in Indian summer monsoon strength during 33,800 to 5500 years B.P.}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL064015},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Dwyer_2017,
abstract = {Abstract Precipitation extremes intensify with climate warming in observations and simulations, but changes in their duration or spatial extent are not well understood. Here the duration and zonal length of midlatitude precipitation extremes are quantified in climate model simulations. Most comprehensive climate models project a decrease in duration over the 21st century, although the magnitude of the decrease with warming is less than 1{\%} K−1 in the multimodel mean. An advective time scale based on the mean zonal wind is shown to be linked to the duration in terms of spatial distribution, intermodel differences, and response to climate change. In simulations with an idealized climate model, a stronger meridional temperature gradient decreases the duration despite increases in the zonal length, and this is explained using the thermal wind relation and the Rossby deformation radius. However, the response of the zonal length to increasing mean temperature requires further study.},
annote = {more intense mid-latitude rainfall extremes with warming but shorter duration due to stronger westerly winds},
author = {Dwyer, J. G. and O'Gorman, P. A.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL072855},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Precipitation Extremes},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5863--5871},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Changing duration and spatial extent of midlatitude precipitation extremes across different climates}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017gl072855},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Earman2011,
abstract = {Groundwater is a vital resource for sustaining life. Changes in the Earth's climate have the potential to affect both the quality and quantity of available groundwater, primarily through impacts on recharge, evapotranspiration and (indirectly) on pumpage and abstraction. Groundwater is a major contributor to streamflow in areas with relatively shallow water tables, so changes in groundwater systems may also impact surface-water systems. As a result, understanding how climate change could affect groundwater systems is a vital component of sound long-term management of our water supplies. However, predicting how climate change could impact groundwater systems is difficult. Part of the difficulty is rooted in uncertainties in the predictions of future climate. However, even if we were certain regarding future climate, forecasting future groundwater conditions would still be difficult because of the complex combinations of processes that affect groundwater recharge, discharge and quality. Better observations, increased understanding of processes and modeling capabilities will be needed to assess the future of this vital resource in the face of projected climate changes.},
author = {Earman, Sam and Dettinger, Michael},
doi = {10.2166/wcc.2011.034},
issn = {2040-2244},
journal = {Journal of Water and Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Evapotranspiration,Groundwater,Monitoring modeling,Pumpage,Recharge,Streamflow,Water quality},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {213--229},
title = {{Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater resources – a global review}},
url = {https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article/2/4/213/3539/Potential-impacts-of-climate-change-on-groundwater},
volume = {2},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Easterling2016,
abstract = {We present an overview of practices and challenges related to the detection and attribution of observed changes in climate extremes. Detection is the identification of a statistically significant change in the extreme values of a climate variable over some period of time. Issues in detection discussed include data quality, coverage, and completeness. Attribution takes that detection of a change and uses climate model simulations to evaluate whether a cause can be assigned to that change. Additionally, we discuss a newer field of attribution, event attribution, where individual extreme events are analyzed for the express purpose of assigning some measure of whether that event was directly influenced by anthropogenic forcing of the climate system.},
author = {Easterling, David R. and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and Wehner, Michael F. and Sun, Liqiang},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.001},
isbn = {2212-0947},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Attribution,Detection,Extremes,Observed climate change},
month = {mar},
pages = {17--27},
title = {{Detection and attribution of climate extremes in the observed record}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094716300020},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Eekhout2018HESS,
abstract = {Abstract. An increase in extreme precipitation is projected for many areas worldwide in the coming decades. To assess the impact of increased precipitation intensity on water security, we applied a regional-scale hydrological and soil erosion model, forced with regional climate model projections. We specifically considered the impact of climate change on the distribution of water between soil (green water) and surface water (blue water) compartments. We show that an increase in precipitation intensity leads to a redistribution of water within the catchment, where water storage in soil decreases and reservoir inflow increases. This affects plant water stress and the potential of rainfed versus irrigated agriculture, and increases dependency on reservoir storage, which is potentially threatened by increased soil erosion. This study demonstrates the crucial importance of accounting for the fact that increased precipitation intensity leads to water redistribution between green and blue water, increased soil erosion, and reduced water security. Ultimately, this has implications for design of climate change adaptation measures, which should aim to increase the water holding capacity of the soil (green water) and to maintain the storage capacity of reservoirs (blue water), benefiting rainfed and irrigated agriculture. ]]{\textgreater}},
annote = {Modelling evidence indicates increases in precipitation intensity leads to a redistribution of water within the catchment, where reservoir inflow increases and water storage in soil decreases, affecting plant water stress and soil erosion.},
author = {Eekhout, Joris P. C. and Hunink, Johannes E. and Terink, Wilco and de Vente, Joris},
doi = {10.5194/hess-22-5935-2018},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {5935--5946},
publisher = {Copernicus {\{}GmbH{\}}},
title = {{Why increased extreme precipitation under climate change negatively affects water security}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/5935/2018/},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Eilander2020,
abstract = {Current global riverine flood risk studies assume a constant mean sea level boundary. In reality high sea levels can propagate up a river, impede high river discharge, thus leading to elevated water levels. Riverine flood risk in deltas may therefore be underestimated. This paper presents the first global scale assessment of the joint influence of riverine and coastal drivers of flooding in deltas. We show that if storm surge is ignored, flood depths are significantly underestimated for 9.3{\%} of the expected annual population exposed to riverine flooding. The assessment is based on extreme water levels at 3433 river mouth locations as modeled by a state-of-The-Art global river routing model, forced with a multi-model runoff ensemble and bounded by dynamic sea level conditions derived from a global tide and surge reanalysis. We first classified the drivers of riverine flooding at each location into four classes: surge-dominant, discharge-dominant, compound-dominant or insignificant. We then developed a model experiment to quantify the effect of surge on flood hazard and impacts. Drivers of riverine flooding are compound-dominant at 19.7{\%} of the locations analyzed, discharge-dominant at 69.2{\%}, and surge-dominant at 7.8{\%}. Compared to locations with either surge-or discharge-dominant flood drivers, locations with compound-dominant flood drivers generally have larger surge extremes and are located in basins with faster discharge response and/or flat topography. Globally, surge exacerbates 1-in-10 years flood levels at 64.0{\%} of the locations analyzed, with a mean increase of 11 cm. While this increase is generally larger at locations with compound-or surge-dominant flood drivers, flood levels also increase at locations with discharge-dominant flood drivers. This study underlines the importance of including dynamic downstream sea level boundaries in (global) riverine flood risk studies.},
author = {Eilander, Dirk and Couasnon, Ana{\"{i}}s and Ikeuchi, Hiroaki and Muis, Sanne and Yamazaki, Dai and Winsemius, Hessel C. and Ward, Philip J.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab8ca6},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {10},
pages = {104007},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{The effect of surge on riverine flood hazard and impact in deltas globally}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8ca6},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Eisner2017,
abstract = {The paper investigates climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality for a set of eleven representative large river basins covering all continents and a wide range of climatic and physiographic settings. Based on an ensemble of nine regional hydrological models driven by climate projections derived from five global circulation models under four representative concentration pathways, we analyzed the median and range of projected changes in seasonal streamflow by the end of the twenty-first century and examined the uncertainty arising from the different members of the modelling chain. Climate change impacts on the timing of seasonal streamflow were found to be small except for two basins. In many basins, we found an acceleration of the existing seasonality pattern, i.e. high-flows are projected to increase and/or low-flows are projected to decrease. In some basins the hydrologic projections indicate opposite directions of change which cancel out in the ensemble median, i.e., no robust conclusions could be drawn. In the majority of the basins, differences in projected streamflow seasonality between the low emission pathway and the high emission pathway are small with the exception of four basins. For these basins our results allow conclusions on the potential benefits (or adverse effects) of avoided GHG emissions for the seasonal streamflow regime.},
author = {Eisner, S. and Fl{\"{o}}rke, M. and Chamorro, A. and Daggupati, P. and Donnelly, C. and Huang, J. and Hundecha, Y. and Koch, H. and Kalugin, A. and Krylenko, I. and Mishra, V. and Piniewski, M. and Samaniego, L. and Seidou, O. and Wallner, M. and Krysanova, V.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {401--417},
publisher = {Climatic Change},
title = {{An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins}},
volume = {141},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ekholm2016,
abstract = {Solar radiation management (SRM) could provide a fast and low-cost option to mitigate global warming, but can also incur unwanted or unexpected climatic side-effects. As these side-effects involve substantial uncertainties, the optimal role of SRM cannot be yet determined. Here, we present probabilistic emission scenarios that limit global mean temper-ature increase to 2 °C under uncertainty on possible future SRM deployment. Three uncer-tainties relating to SRM deployment are covered: the start time, intensity and possible termination. We find that the uncertain SRM option allows very little additional GHG emissions before the SRM termination risk can be excluded, and the result proved robust over different hypothetical probability assumptions for SRM deployment. An additional CO 2 concentration constraint, e.g. to mitigate ocean acidification, necessitates CO 2 reductions even with strong SRM; but in such case SRM renders non-CO 2 reductions unnecessary. This illustrates how the framing of climatic targets and available mitigation measures affect strongly the optimal mitigation strategies. The ability of SRM to decrease emission reduction costs is diminished by the uncertainty in SRM deployment and the possible concentration constraint, and also depends heavily on the assumed emission reduction costs. By holding SRM deploy-ment time uncertain, we also find that carrying out safeguard emission reductions and delaying SRM deployment by 10 to 20 years increases reduction costs only moderately.},
author = {Ekholm, Tommi and Korhonen, Hannele},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1828-5},
isbn = {0165-0009},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3-4},
pages = {503--515},
publisher = {Climatic Change},
title = {{Climate change mitigation strategy under an uncertain Solar Radiation Management possibility}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1828-5},
volume = {139},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Emanuel2017,
abstract = {We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1{\%} in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18{\%} over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6{\%}, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.},
address = {114},
author = {Emanuel, Kerry},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1716222114},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {48},
pages = {12681--12684},
publisher = {Acad. Sci},
title = {{Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1716222114},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Emerton2017NComms,
abstract = {El Ni{\~{n}}o and La Ni{\~{n}}a events, the extremes of ENSO climate variability, influence river flow and flooding at the global scale. Estimates of the historical probability of extreme (high or low) precipitation are used to provide vital information on the likelihood of adverse impacts during extreme ENSO events. However, the nonlinearity between precipitation and flood magnitude motivates the need for estimation of historical probabilities using analysis of hydrological data sets. Here, this analysis is undertaken using the ERA-20CM-R river flow reconstruction for the twentieth century. Our results show that the likelihood of increased or decreased flood hazard during ENSO events is much more complex than is often perceived and reported; probabilities vary greatly across the globe, with large uncertainties inherent in the data and clear differences when comparing the hydrological analysis to precipitation.},
annote = {- nonlinearity between precipitation and flood magnitude
- clear differences when comparing the hydrological analysis to precipitation.
- likelihood of increased or decreased flood hazard during ENSO events is complex},
author = {Emerton, R. and Cloke, H. L. and Stephens, E. M. and Zsoter, E. and Woolnough, S. J. and Pappenberger, F.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms14796},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {mar},
pages = {14796},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fncomms14796},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Endo2018,
author = {Endo, Hirokazu and Kitoh, Akio and Ueda, Hiroaki},
doi = {10.2151/sola.2018-010},
issn = {1349-6476},
journal = {SOLA},
pages = {57--63},
title = {{A Unique Feature of the Asian Summer Monsoon Response to Global Warming: The Role of Different Land–Sea Thermal Contrast Change between the Lower and Upper Troposphere}},
url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/14/0/14{\_}2018-010/{\_}article},
volume = {14},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Endris2019,
author = {Endris, Hussen Seid and Lennard, Christopher and Hewitson, Bruce and Dosio, Alessandro and Nikulin, Grigory and Artan, Guleid A.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4239-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {2029--2053},
title = {{Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4239-7},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Engel2017,
abstract = {AbstractTwo extreme, high-impact events of heavy rainfall and severe floods in West African urban areas (Ouagadougou on 1 September 2009 and Dakar on 26 August 2012) are investigated with respect to their atmospheric causes and statistical return periods. In terms of the synoptic–convective dynamics, the Ouagadougou case is truly extraordinary. A succession of two slow-moving African easterly waves (AEWs) caused record-breaking values of tropospheric moisture. The second AEW, one of the strongest in recent decades, provided the synoptic forcing for the nighttime genesis of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Ouagadougou was hit by two MCSs within 6 h, as the strong convergence and rotation in the AEW-related vortex allowed a swift moisture refueling. An AEW was also instrumental in the overnight development of MCSs in the Dakar case, but neither the AEW vortex nor the tropospheric moisture content was as exceptional as in the Ouagadougou case. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 precipitation...},
author = {Engel, Thomas and Fink, Andreas H. and Knippertz, Peter and Pante, Gregor and Bliefernicht, Jan and Engel, Thomas and Fink, Andreas H. and Knippertz, Peter and Pante, Gregor and Bliefernicht, Jan},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-16-0218.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
keywords = {Africa,Atmosphere,Climate variability,Deep convection,Satellite observations,Time series},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {2937--2957},
title = {{Extreme Precipitation in the West African Cities of Dakar and Ouagadougou: Atmospheric Dynamics and Implications for Flood Risk Assessments}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0218.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{England2014,
abstract = {Despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth[rsquor]s global average surface air temperature has remained more or less steady since 2001. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to account for this slowdown in surface warming. A key component of the global hiatus that has been identified is cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperature, but it is unclear how the ocean has remained relatively cool there in spite of ongoing increases in radiative forcing. Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades[mdash]unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models[mdash]is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. The extra uptake has come about through increased subduction in the Pacific shallow overturning cells, enhancing heat convergence in the equatorial thermocline. At the same time, the accelerated trade winds have increased equatorial upwelling in the central and eastern Pacific, lowering sea surface temperature there, which drives further cooling in other regions. The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1-0.2 [deg]C, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001. This hiatus could persist for much of the present decade if the trade wind trends continue, however rapid warming is expected to resume once the anomalous wind trends abate.},
author = {England, Matthew H. and Mcgregor, Shayne and Spence, Paul and Meehl, Gerald A. and Timmermann, Axel and Cai, Wenju and Gupta, Alex Sen and Mcphaden, Michael J. and Purich, Ariaan and Santoso, Agus},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2106},
isbn = {1758-678X$\backslash$r1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {3},
pages = {222--227},
title = {{Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus}},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Espinoza_2018,
abstract = {Abstract A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. The projections indicate that while there will be {\~{}}10{\%} fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be {\~{}}25{\%} longer, {\~{}}25{\%} wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports (IVTs) under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (IVT strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: {\~{}}50{\%} (25{\%}) globally, {\~{}}50{\%} (20{\%}) in the northern midlatitudes, and {\~{}}60{\%} (20{\%}) in the southern midlatitudes. The models exhibit systematic low biases across the midlatitudes in replicating historical AR frequency ({\~{}}10{\%}), zonal IVT ({\~{}}15{\%}), and meridional IVT ({\~{}}25{\%}), with sizable intermodel differences. A more detailed examination of six regions strongly impacted by ARs suggests that the western United States, northwestern Europe, and southwestern South America exhibit considerable intermodel differences in projected changes in ARs.},
annote = {Atmospheric rivers (ARs) {\~{}}10{\%} fewer, {\~{}}25{\%} longer, {\~{}}25{\%} wider globally with stronger moisture transport under RCP8.5 future scenario; {\~{}}50-60{\%} more frequent {\&} transport {\~{}}20{\%} stronger in midlatitudes where most frequent.},
author = {Espinoza, Vicky and Waliser, Duane E. and Guan, Bin and Lavers, David A. and Ralph, F. Martin},
doi = {10.1029/2017GL076968},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,climate change,global,water vapor },
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {4299--4308},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029{\%}2F2017gl076968},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Espinoza2018,
abstract = {This study provides an updated analysis of the evolution of seasonal rainfall intensity in the Amazon basin, considering the 1981–2017 period and based on HOP (interpolated HYBAM observed precipitation) and CHIRPS (The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations) rainfall data sets. Dry and wet day frequencies as well as extreme percentiles are used in this analysis, producing the same results. Dry-day frequency (DDF) significantly increases in the Southern Amazon (p {\textless} 0.01), particularly during September–November (SON) in the Bolivian Amazon, central Peruvian Amazon and far southern Brazilian Amazon. Consistently, total rainfall in the southern Amazon during SON also shows a significant diminution (p {\textless} 0.05), estimated at 18{\%}. The increase in SON DDF in the southern Amazon is related to a warming of the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean and a weakening of water vapour flux from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The increase in DDF in the southern Amazon is related to enhanced wind subsidence (ascendance) over the 10°S–20°S (5°S–5°N) region and to a deficit (excess) of specific humidity at 1000–300 hPa south of 10°S (north of the 5°S), which suggest a reduction of deep convection over southern Amazonia. Subsidence over the southern Amazon shows a significant trend (p {\textless} 0.01), which can explain the significant increase in DDF. Wet-day frequency (WDF) significantly increases in the northern Amazon, particularly during the March–May (MAM) period (p {\textless} 0.01), producing an estimated rainfall increase during MAM of 17{\%} (p {\textless} 0.01) between 1981 and 2017. Significant changes in both WDF and rainfall in northern Amazon have been detected in 1998 (p {\textless} 0.01). After 1998, the increase in MAM WDF and rainfall is explained by enhanced moisture flux from the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and an increase in deep convection over the northern and northwestern Amazon. These evolutions in DDF and WDF and in the tropical atmosphere occur simultaneously with an increase in sea surface temperature in the northern Atlantic Ocean, particularly after the mid-1990s. These results provide new insight into rainfall variability and climatic features related to increasing dry season length in southern Amazonia. Severe recent droughts may be associated with the increase in DDF in the South. In addition, the increase in MAM rainfall intensity in northern Amazon after 1998 may be associated with several historical floods that occurred after this date.},
author = {Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Ronchail, Josyane and Marengo, Jos{\'{e}} Antonio and Segura, Hans},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4462-2},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {9-10},
pages = {1--22},
title = {{Contrasting North–South changes in Amazon wet-day and dry-day frequency and related atmospheric features (1981–2017)}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007{\%}2Fs00382-018-4462-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4462-2},
volume = {52},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Espinoza2019,
abstract = {Study region: Upper Madeira Basin (975,500 km2) in Southern Amazonia, which is suffering a biophysical transition, involving deforestation and changes in rainfall regime. Study focus: The evolution of the runoff coefficient (Rc: runoff/rainfall) is examined as an indicator of the environmental changes (1982–2017). New hydrological insights for the region: At an annual scale, the Rc at Porto Velho station declines while neither the basin-averaged rainfall nor the runoff change. During the low-water period Rc and runoff diminish while no changes are observed in rainfall. This cannot be explained by increase of evapotranspiration since the basin-averaged actual evapotranspiration decreases. To explain the decrease of Rc, a regional analysis is undertaken. While the characteristic rainfall-runoff time-lag (CT) at Porto Velho basin is estimated to 60 days, CT is higher (65–75 days) in the south and lower (50 days) over the Amazon-Andes transition regions. It is found that 1) the southern basin (south of 14 °S) best explains low-level Porto Velho runoff, 2) in the south, rainfall diminishes and the frequency of dry days increases. Both features explain the diminution of the runoff and the Rc in Porto Velho. Moreover, the increasing dryness in the south compensates for the rainfall and frequency of wet days ({\textgreater}10 mm) increase north of 14 °S and explains the lack of basin-averaged rainfall trends of the upper Madeira basin.},
author = {Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and S{\"{o}}rensson, Anna A. and Ronchail, Josyane and Molina-Carpio, Jorge and Segura, Hans and Gutierrez-Cori, Omar and Ruscica, Romina and Condom, Thomas and Wongchuig-Correa, Sly},
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100637},
issn = {22145818},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
keywords = {Atmosphere and land surface interactions,Rainfall trends,Runoff coefficient},
number = {September},
pages = {100637},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Regional hydro-climatic changes in the Southern Amazon Basin (Upper Madeira Basin) during the 1982–2017 period}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100637},
volume = {26},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Espinoza2016,
abstract = {This paper documents the spatiotemporal evolution of wet-day and dry-day frequency (WDF and DDF) in the western Amazon, its relationships with oceanic and atmospheric variability and possible impact on vegetation. WDF and DDF changed significantly during the 1980–2009 period (p{\textless}0.05). An increase in WDF is observed after 1995 over the northern part of the western Amazon (Mara{\~{}} n? on basin). The average annual value of WDF changed from 22 days/yr before 1995 to 34 days after that date (155{\%} after 1995). In contrast, DDF increased significantly over the central and southern part of this region (Ucayali basin) after 1986. Average annual DDF was 16.2 days before 1986 and 23.8 days afterward (147{\%} after 1986). Interannual variability in WDF appears to be modulated by changes in Pacific SST and the Walker cell during the November–March season. This mechanism enhances convective activity over the northern part of the western Amazon. The increase in DDF is related to warming of the North Tropical Atlantic SST, which produces changes in the Hadley cell and subsidence over the central and the southern western Amazon. More intense seasonal hydrological extremes in the western Amazon therefore appear to be related to changes in WDF and DDF that occurred in 1995 and 1986, respectively. During the 2001–2009 period, an index of vegetation condition (NDVI) appears negatively correlated with DDF (r520.95; p{\textless}0.0001). This suggests that vegetation in the western Amazon is mainly water limited, rather than light limited and indicates that the vegetation is highly sensitive to concentration of rainfall.},
author = {Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Segura, Hans and Ronchail, Josyane and Drapeau, Guillaume and Gutierrez-Cori, Omar},
doi = {10.1002/2016WR019305},
issn = {19447973},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {Amazon-Andes,Ecuador,Peru,rainfall,vegetation},
number = {11},
pages = {8546--8560},
title = {{Evolution of wet-day and dry-day frequency in the western Amazon basin: Relationship with atmospheric circulation and impacts on vegetation}},
volume = {52},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Estilow2015,
abstract = {Abstract. This paper describes the long-term, satellite-based visible snow cover extent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate data record (CDR) currently available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation. This environmental data product is developed from weekly Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent data that have been digitized from snow cover maps onto a Cartesian grid draped over a polar stereographic projection. The data have a spatial resolution of 190.6 km at 60° latitude, are updated monthly, and span the period from 4 October 1966 to the present. The data comprise the longest satellite-based CDR of any environmental variable. Access to the data is provided in Network Common Data Form (netCDF) and archived by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) under the satellite Climate Data Record Program (doi:10.7289/V5N014G9). The basic characteristics, history, and evolution of the data set are presented herein. In general, the CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability to its widely used predecessor product. Key refinements included in the CDR improve the product's grid accuracy and documentation and bring metadata into compliance with current standards for climate data records.},
author = {Estilow, T W and Young, A H and Robinson, D A},
doi = {10.5194/essd-7-137-2015},
issn = {1866-3516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {jun},
number = {1},
pages = {137--142},
title = {{A long-term Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent data record for climate studies and monitoring}},
url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/7/137/2015/},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Evan2015JClim,
abstract = {The Sahel region of West Africa experiences decadal swings between periods of drought and abundant rainfall, and a large body of work asserts that these variations in the West African monsoon are a response to changes in the temperatures of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. However, here it is shown that when forced by SST alone, most state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce a statistically significant upward trend in Sahelian precipitation over the last 30 years and that those models with a significant upward trend in rainfall seem to achieve this result for disparate reasons. Here the role of the Saharan heat low (SHL) in the recovery from the Sahelian drought of the 1980s is examined. Using observations and reanalyses, it is dem- onstrated that there has been an upward trend in SHL temperature that is coincident with the drought re- covery. A heat and moisture budget analysis of the SHL suggests that the rise in temperature is due to greenhouse warming by water vapor, but that changes in water vapor are strongly dependent upon the temperature of the SHL: a process termed the Saharan water vapor–temperature (SWAT) feedback. It is shown that the structure of the drought recovery is consistent with a warming SHL and is evidence of a fundamental, but not exclusive, role for the SHL in the recent increase in Sahelian monsoon rainfall.},
annote = {Water vapour feedback contributes to strengthening Sahara heat low in response to greenhouse gas forcing},
author = {Evan, Amato T. and Flamant, Cyrille and Lavaysse, Christophe and Kocha, C{\'{e}}cile and Saci, Azzedine},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00039.1},
isbn = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00039.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Africa,Climate variability,Monsoons,Water vapor},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {108--123},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Water vapor-forced greenhouse warming over the Sahara desert and the recent recovery from the Sahelian drought}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00039.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Falco2019,
abstract = {A new set of CORDEX simulations over South America (SA), together with their coarser-resolution driving GCMs (global climate models) are used to investigate added value (AV) of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing mean climate conditions over the continent. There are two types of simulations with different lateral boundary conditions: five hindcast simulations use re-analysis as boundary conditions, and five other historical simulations use GCMs outputs. The multi-model ensembles and individual simulations were evaluated against two or three observation-based gridded datasets for 2-meter surface air temperature and total precipitation. The analysis is performed for summer and winter, over a common period from 1990 to 2004. Results indicate that added value of RCMs is dependent on driving fields, surface properties of the area, season and variable considered. A robust added value for RCMs driven by ERA-Interim is obtained in reproducing the summer climatology of surface air temperature over tropical and subtropical latitudes. Mixed results can be seen, however, for summer precipitation climatology in both hindcast and historical experiments. For winter, there is no noticeable improvement in RCMs for the large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature climatology. To further understand the added value of RCMS, models deviations from observation are decomposed into different terms: errors from observational uncertainty, the representativeness error, and the interpolation error. Regions where these errors are not negligible, such as in complex terrain regions, among others, can be identified. There is a clear need for complementary assessment to understand better the real value added by RCMs.},
author = {Falco, Magdalena and Carril, Andrea F. and Men{\'{e}}ndez, Claudio G. and Zaninelli, Pablo G. and Laurent, Z.X. Li},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4412-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Added value,CORDEX,Model assessment,Seasonal climatology,South America},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {4771--4786},
title = {{Assessment of CORDEX simulations over South America: added value on seasonal climatology and resolution considerations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4412-z},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Fan2016,
author = {Fan, Jiwen and Wang, Yuan and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Liu, Xiaohong},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-16-0037.1},
issn = {0022-4928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {4221--4252},
title = {{Review of Aerosol–Cloud Interactions: Mechanisms, Significance, and Challenges}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0037.1},
volume = {73},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Fan2015,
abstract = {Extreme weather events have become more frequent and are likely linked to increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols, which alter the Earth's radiative balance and cloud processes. On 8–9 July 2013, a catastrophic flood devastated the mountainous area to the northwest of the Sichuan Basin. Atmospheric simulations at a convection-permitting scale with aerosols and chemistry included show that heavy air pollution trapped in the basin significantly enhances the rainfall intensity over the mountainous areas through “aerosol-enhanced conditional instability.” That is, aerosols suppress convection by absorbing solar radiation and increasing atmospheric stability in the basin during daytime. This allows excess moist air to be transported to the mountainous areas and orographically lifted, generating strong convection and extremely heavy precipitation at night. We show that reducing pollution in the Sichuan Basin can effectively mitigate floods. It is suggested that coupling aerosol with meteorology can be crucial to improve weather forecast in polluted regions.},
author = {Fan, Jiwen and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Yang, Yan and Zhao, Chun and {Ruby Leung}, L. and Li, Zhanqing},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064479},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {aerosol impacts,black carbon,extreme weather,flood,pollution},
number = {14},
pages = {6066--6075},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Substantial contribution of anthropogenic air pollution to catastrophic floods in Southwest China}},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Fan2014a,
abstract = {Abstract. Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and the Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations are carried out for two cloud cases (from the CalWater 2011 field campaign) with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on 16 February (FEB16) and 2 March (MAR02). In both cases, observations show the presence of dust and biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust and biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10–20{\%} from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a {\~{}}40{\%} increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by a few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present, but reduces precipitation by 5–8{\%} if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology, including cloud dynamics and the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental conditions for assessing aerosol effects on cold-season precipitation in California.},
author = {Fan, J. and Leung, L. R. and DeMott, P. J. and Comstock, J. M. and Singh, B. and Rosenfeld, D. and Tomlinson, J. M. and White, A. and Prather, K. A. and Minnis, P. and Ayers, J. K. and Min, Q.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-14-81-2014},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {81--101},
title = {{Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution versus long-range transported dust}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/14/81/2014/},
volume = {14},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Fan2020,
author = {Fan, Chongxing and Wang, Minghuai and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Zhu, Yannian and Liu, Jihu and Chen, Baojun},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086207},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {e2019GL086207},
title = {{Strong Precipitation Suppression by Aerosols in Marine Low Clouds}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL086207 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086207},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Fan2018,
abstract = {Aerosol-cloud interactions remain the largest uncertainty in climate projections. Ultrafine aerosol particles smaller than 50 nanometers (UAP{\textless}50) can be abundant in the troposphere but are conventionally considered too small to affect cloud formation. Observational evidence and numerical simulations of deep convective clouds (DCCs) over the Amazon show that DCCs forming in a low-aerosol environment can develop very large vapor supersaturation because fast droplet coalescence reduces integrated droplet surface area and subsequent condensation. UAP{\textless}50 from pollution plumes that are ingested into such clouds can be activated to form additional cloud droplets on which excess supersaturation condenses and forms additional cloud water and latent heating, thus intensifying convective strength. This mechanism suggests a strong anthropogenic invigoration of DCCs in previously pristine regions of the world.},
author = {Fan, Jiwen and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Zhang, Yuwei and Giangrande, Scott E and Li, Zhanqing and Machado, Luiz A. T and Martin, Scot T and Yang, Yan and Wang, Jian and Artaxo, Paulo and Barbosa, Henrique M. J and Braga, Ramon C. and Comstock, Jennifer M and Feng, Zhe and Gao, Wenhua and Gomes, Helber B and Mei, Fan and P{\"{o}}hlker, Christopher and P{\"{o}}hlker, Mira L and P{\"{o}}schl, Ulrich and de Souza, Rodrigo A. F},
doi = {10.1126/science.aan8461},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jan},
number = {6374},
pages = {411--418},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Substantial convection and precipitation enhancements by ultrafine aerosol particles}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aan8461},
volume = {359},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Fang1999,
abstract = {To simulate effects of projected climate change on water temperature characteristics of small lakes in the contiguous U.S., a deterministic, one-dimensional year-round water temperature model is applied. In cold regions the model simulates ice and snow cover on a lake. The lake parameters required as model input are surface area, maximum depth, and Secchi depth as a measure of radiation attenuation and trophic state. The model is driven by daily weather data. Weather records from 209 stations in the contiguous U.S. for the period 1961-1979 were used to represent present climate conditions. The projected climate change owing to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 was obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model. The simulated water temperature and ice characteristics are related to the geometric and trophic state lake characteristics and to geographic location. By interpolation, the sensitivity of lake water temperature characteristics to latitude, longitude, lake geometry and trophic status can therefore be quantified for small lakes in the contiguous U.S. The 2 x CO2 climate scenario is projected to increase maximum and minimum lake surface temperatures by up to 5.2 °C. (Maximum surface water temperatures in lakes near the northern and the southern border of the contiguous U.S. currently differ by up to 13 °C.) Maximum temperature differences between lake surface and lake bottom are projected to increase in average by only 1 to 2 °C after climate warming. The duration of seasonal summer stratification is projected to be up to 66 days longer under a 2 x CO2 climate scenario. Water temperatures of less than 8 °C are projected to occur on lake bottoms during a period which is on the order of 50 days shorter under a 2 x CO2 climate scenario. With water temperature change projected to be as high as 5.2 °C, ecological impacts such as shifts in species distributions and in fish habitat are most likely. Ice covers on lakes of northern regions would also be changed strongly.},
author = {Fang, Xing and Stefan, Heinz G.},
doi = {10.1023/A:1005431523281},
issn = {01650009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {2},
pages = {377--412},
title = {{Projections of Climate Change Effects on Water Temperature Characteristics of Small Lakes in the Contiguous U.S.}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1023/A:1005431523281},
volume = {42},
year = {1999}
}
@article{Farinotti2020,
author = {Farinotti, Daniel and Immerzeel, Walter W and de Kok, Remco J. and Quincey, Duncan J and Dehecq, Amaury},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0513-5},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {8--16},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Manifestations and mechanisms of the Karakoram glacier Anomaly}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0513-5},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Fasullo2019,
abstract = {Monsoon responses to eruptions over the last millennium (LM) are examined in an ensemble of climate simulations as a function of eruption hemisphere. A composite analysis reveals a particularly strong sensitivity of monsoon rainfall in the year following Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical eruptions. Additional analysis focusing on the 18th century eruption of Mt. Laki and idealized simulations representing an analogue Southern Hemisphere eruption (SH‐Laki) reveal monsoon responses that are approximately symmetric across hemispheres, despite exhibiting asymmetries in other aspects of the climate response. We conclude that 1) latitudinally mirrored eruptions result in approximately symmetric monsoon responses, 2) disproportionate weakening (strengthening) of NH (SH) monsoons by NH eruptions over the LM resulted in part from their relatively high latitudes, and 3) uncertainty in eruption latitude fundamentally limits our ability to accurately simulate associated monsoon and tropical precipitation responses in nature.},
author = {Fasullo, John T. and Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. and Stevenson, Samantha},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084377},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {12350--12359},
title = {{The Influence of Volcanic Aerosol Meridional Structure on Monsoon Responses over the Last Millennium}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL084377},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Fatichi2016,
author = {Fatichi, Simone and Ivanov, Valeriy Y. and Paschalis, Athanasios and Peleg, Nadav and Molnar, Peter and Rimkus, Stefan and Kim, Jongho and Burlando, Paolo and Caporali, Enrica},
doi = {10.1002/2015EF000336},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {10.1002/2015EF000336 and Climate change,Climate v},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {240--251},
title = {{Uncertainty partition challenges the predictability of vital details of climate change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015EF000336},
volume = {4},
year = {2016}
}
@article{fcmlbbl09,
author = {Favreau, G and Cappelaere, B and Massuel, S and Leblanc, M and Boucher, M and Boulain, N and Leduc, C},
doi = {10.1029/2007WR006785},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {W00A16},
title = {{Land clearing, climate variability, and water resources increase in semiarid southwest Niger: A review}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2007WR006785},
volume = {45},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Feng2013c,
author = {Feng, Wei and Zhong, Min and Lemoine, Jean-Michel and Biancale, Richard and Hsu, Hou-Tse and Xia, Jun},
doi = {10.1002/wrcr.20192},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {2110--2118},
title = {{Evaluation of groundwater depletion in North China using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and ground-based measurements}},
volume = {49},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Feng2013d,
abstract = {Global drylands encompassing hyper-arid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid areas cover about 41 percent of the earth's terrestrial surface and are home to more than a third of the world's population. By analyzing observations for 1948-2008 and climate model simulations for 1948-2100, we show that global drylands have expanded in the last sixty years and will continue to expand in the 21st∼century. By the end of this century, the world's drylands (under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario) are projected to be 5.8 × 106 km2 (or 10{\%}) larger than in the 1961-1990 climatology. The major expansion of arid regions will occur over southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia, while major expansions of semiarid regions will occur over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. The global dryland expansions will increase the population affected by water scarcity and land degradations. {\textcopyright} Author(s) 2013.},
author = {Feng, S. and Fu, Q.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-13-10081-2013},
isbn = {1680-7316},
issn = {16807316},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {19},
pages = {10081--10094},
title = {{Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate}},
url = {http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/10081/2013/},
volume = {13},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Fenta2017,
abstract = {Climate variability and human activities are two major drivers influencing changes in streamflow response of a watershed, and thus assessing their relative effect is essential for developing sustainable water resources planning and management strategies at watershed-scale. In this study, a runoff model driven by rainfall and potential evapotranspiration was established to estimate the effect of climate variability on the changes in annual streamflow of Agula watershed in northern Ethiopia. Significant decreasing trends were observed for annual and wet season streamflow between 1992 and 2012, while dry season streamflow showed an increasing trend. Analyses of seasonal and annual rainfall records showed no significant trends. The change-point test revealed that an abrupt change in annual streamflow occurred in 2000. In the period 2000–2012, the mean annual and wet season streamflow decreased by 36 and 49{\%}, respectively compared with 1992–1999, while dry season streamflow increased by 57{\%}. Climate variability was estimated to account for 22{\%} of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow, whereas human activities (e.g., proper watershed management practices and associated changes in land use/land cover among other factors) were responsible for 78{\%}; indicating that human activities were the major drivers of changes in the streamflow response. The results of this study point to the potential that reduced wet season flow and improved dry season water availability can be achieved by proper planning and implementation of appropriate watershed management practices.},
author = {Fenta, Ayele Almaw and Yasuda, Hiroshi and Shimizu, Katsuyuki and Haregeweyn, Nigussie},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-017-1103-y},
issn = {1436378X},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
keywords = {Climate variability,Ethiopia,Semiarid,Streamflow response,Trend analysis,Watershed management},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1229--1240},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{Response of streamflow to climate variability and changes in human activities in the semiarid highlands of northern Ethiopia}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-017-1103-y},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Fereday2018,
author = {Fereday, David and Chadwick, Robin and Knight, Jeff and Scaife, Adam A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0048.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {963--977},
title = {{Atmospheric Dynamics is the Largest Source of Uncertainty in Future Winter European Rainfall}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0048.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ferguson2018WRR,
abstract = {Abstract Changes in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the global water cycle will constitute some of the greatest challenges to socio-economic?environmental well-being in a warming world. Large multi-model, multi-scenario inter-comparisons such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment support our best estimates of projected climate change and associated uncertainty thereof. It is important to continually re-evaluate how this information is synthesized and communicated and at what point it becomes actionable. In this study, we demonstrate a systematic and holistic framework for synthesizing multi-model ensemble projections of water availability at large river basin scale?the scale at which water resources are both managed and monitored. We identify statistically significant shifts in: mean water availability at annual and monthly scales, its inter-annual variations, and its relative seasonality, as computed from CMIP5 historical (1976-2005) and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5; 2070-2099) scenario multi-model ensemble output. Water availability is addressed separately through the lens of meteorologists (precipitation), hydrologists (runoff), and agriculturalists (precipitation minus evapotranspiration). We illustrate limitations in CMIP5 model representativeness through comparisons of atmosphere-only model (AMIP) output against observational best estimates. And we find that warming-induced shifts in water availability projected by CMIP5 carbon-cycling Earth System Models (ESMs) are comparatively less substantial than those projected by traditional general circulation models (GCMs). As we show, knowing the seasonality of both projected changes and of the biased model background climatology onto which they are imposed is paramount to ensuring proper interpretation and ascribing confidence.},
annote = {Earth system models show weaker shifts in water availability than coupled climate models},
author = {Ferguson, C R and Pan, M and Oki, Taikan},
doi = {10.1029/2018WR022792},
issn = {0043-1397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {basin-scale water budget,climate variability and change,future changes in water availability,seasonality,water resources management},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {7791--7819},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The Effect of Global Warming on Future Water Availability: CMIP5 Synthesis}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022792 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018WR022792},
volume = {54},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ferguson2018ERL,
abstract = {Groundwater resources are being stressed from the top down and bottom up. Declining 7 32 water tables and near-surface contamination are driving groundwater users to construct 8 33 deeper wells in many US aquifer systems. This has been a successful short-term 9 34 mitigation measure where deep groundwater is fresh and free of contaminants. 10 35 Nevertheless, vertical salinity profiles are not well-constrained at continental-scales. In 11 36 many regions, oil and gas activities use pore spaces for energy production and waste 12 37 disposal. Here we quantify depths that aquifer systems transition from fresh-to-brackish 13 14 38 and where oil and gas activities are widespread in sedimentary basins across the United 15 39 States. Fresh-brackish transitions occur at relatively shallow depths over just a few 16 40 hundred meters, particularly in eastern US basins. We conclude that fresh groundwater is 17 41 less abundant in several key US basins than previously thought; therefore drilling deeper 18 42 wells to access fresh groundwater resources is not feasible extensively across the 19 43 continent. Our findings illustrate that groundwater stores are being depleted not only by 20 44 excessive withdrawals, but due to injection, and potentially contamination, from the oil 21 22 45 and gas industry in areas of deep fresh and brackish groundwater.},
annote = {Depletion and contamination of groundwater through human activituies has been identified over the USA.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1005.3839v1},
author = {Ferguson, Grant and McIntosh, Jennifer C. and Perrone, Debra and Jasechko, Scott},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aae6d8},
eprint = {arXiv:1005.3839v1},
isbn = {2158667087},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {enhanced oil recovery,hydraulic fracturing,injection wells,pore space competition,salinity},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {114013},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Competition for shrinking window of low salinity groundwater}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2Faae6d8},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{fw11,
author = {Ferguson, C R and Wood, E F},
doi = {10.1175/2011JHM1380.1},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
pages = {1221},
title = {{Observed Land–Atmosphere Coupling from Satellite Remote Sensing and Reanalysis}},
volume = {12},
year = {2011}
}
@article{fg12,
author = {Ferguson, Grant and Gleeson, Tom},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1413},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {342--345},
title = {{Vulnerability of coastal aquifers to groundwater use and climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1413},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Ferraro2014,
abstract = {Geoengineering by injection of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere has been proposed as a way to counteract the warming effect of greenhouse gases by reducing the intensity of solar radiation reaching the surface. Here, climate model simulations are used to examine the effect of geoengineering on the tropical overturning circulation. The strength of the circulation is related to the atmospheric static stability and has implications for tropical rainfall. The tropical circulation is projected to weaken under anthropogenic global warming. Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosol does not mitigate this weakening of the circulation. This response is due to a fast adjustment of the troposphere to radiative heating from the aerosol layer. This effect is not captured when geoengineering is modelled as a reduction in total solar irradiance, suggesting caution is required when interpreting model results from solar dimming experiments as analogues for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering},
author = {Ferraro, Angus J. and Highwood, Eleanor J. and Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014001},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {radiative transfer,stratospheric aerosol geoengineering,tropical overturning circulation},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {014001},
title = {{Weakened tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to geoengineering}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014001},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Feser2015,
abstract = {This review assesses storm studies over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe regarding the occurrence of potential long-term trends. Based on a systematic review of available articles, trends are classified according to different geographical regions, datasets, and time periods. Articles that used measurement and proxy data, reanalyses, regional and global climate model data on past and future trends are evaluated for changes in storm climate. The most important result is that trends in storm activity depend critically on the time period analysed. An increase in storm numbers is evident for the reanalyses period for the most recent decades, whereas most long-term studies show merely decadal variability for the last 100-150 years. Storm trends derived from reanalyses data and climate model data for the past are mostly limited to the last four to six decades. The majority of these studies find increasing storm activity north of about 55-60° N over the North Atlantic with a negative tendency southward. This increase from about the 1970s until the mid-1990s is also mirrored by long-term proxies and the North Atlantic Oscillation and constitutes a part of their decadal variability. Studies based on proxy and measurement data or model studies over the North Atlantic for the past which cover more than 100 years show large decadal variations and either no trend or a decrease in storm numbers. Future scenarios until about the year 2100 indicate mostly an increase in winter storm intensity over the North Atlantic and western Europe. However, future trends in total storm numbers are quite heterogeneous and depend on the model generation used.},
author = {Feser, F. and Barcikowska, M. and Krueger, O. and Schenk, F. and Weisse, R. and Xia, L.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2364},
issn = {1477870X},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {Extratropical cyclones,NAO,North Atlantic,Storm trends,Storms,Wind},
month = {jan},
number = {687},
pages = {350--382},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Ltd},
title = {{Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe – A review}},
volume = {141},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Ficklin2019a,
abstract = {Abstract Hydrologic intensity is often quantified using precipitation without directly incorporating atmospheric water demand. We develop a hydrologic intensity index called the Surplus Deficit Intensity Index (SDI) that accounts for variation in supply and demand. SDI is the standardized sum of standardized surplus intensity (mean of daily surplus when supply {\textgreater} demand) and deficit time (mean of consecutive days when demand {\textgreater} supply). Using an observational ensemble of global daily precipitation and atmospheric water demand during 1979-2017, we document widespread hydrologic intensification (SDI; +0.11 z-score/decade) driven primarily by increased surplus intensity. Using a climate model ensemble of the United States, hydrologic intensification is projected for the mid-21st century (+0.86 in z-score compared to 1971-2000), producing greater apparent intensification when compared to an index that does not explicitly incorporate demand. While incorporating demand had a minor effect on observed hydrologic intensification, it doubles hydrological intensification for the mid-21st century.},
author = {Ficklin, Darren L. and Abatzoglou, John T. and Novick, Kimberly A.},
doi = {10.1029/2019gl084015},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,hydrologic cycle},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {8114--8124},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A New Perspective on Terrestrial Hydrologic Intensity That Incorporates Atmospheric Water Demand}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084015},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ficklin2018,
abstract = {Changes in climate are driving an intensification of the hydrologic cycle and leading to alterations of natural streamflow regimes. Human disturbances such as dams, land-cover change, and water diversions are thought to obscure climate signals in hydrologic systems. As a result, most studies of changing hydro-climatic conditions are limited to areas with natural streamflow. Here, we compare trends in observed streamflow from natural and human-modified watersheds in the United States and Canada for the 1981–2015 water years to evaluate whether comparable responses to climate change are present in both systems. We find that patterns and magnitudes of trends in median daily streamflow, daily streamflow variability, and daily extremes in human-modified watersheds are similar to those from nearby natural watersheds. Streamflow in both systems show negative trends throughout the southern and western United States and positive trends throughout the northeastern United States, the northern Great Plains, and southern prairies of Canada. The trends in both natural and human-modified watersheds are linked to local trends in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, demonstrating that water management and land-cover change have not substantially altered the effects of climate change on human-modified watersheds compared with nearby natural watersheds.},
author = {Ficklin, Darren L. and Abatzoglou, John T. and Robeson, Scott M. and Null, Sarah E. and Knouft, Jason H.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1801026115},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Climate change,Human-modified flow regime,Natural flow regime,Streamflow trends,Watershed},
month = {aug},
number = {34},
pages = {8553--8557},
pmid = {30082407},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Natural and managed watersheds show similar responses to recent climate change}},
url = {www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1801026115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Fiedler2020,
abstract = {The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden-Julian oscillation and El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.},
author = {Fiedler, Stephanie and Crueger, Traute and D'Agostino, Roberta and Peters, Karsten and Becker, Tobias and Leutwyler, David and Paccini, Laura and Burdanowitz, J{\"{o}}rg and Buehler, Stefan A. and Cortes, Alejandro Uribe and Dauhut, Thibaut and Dommenget, Dietmar and Fraedrich, Klaus and Jungandreas, Leonore and Maher, Nicola and Naumann, Ann Kristin and Rugenstein, Maria and Sakradzija, Mirjana and Schmidt, Hauke and Sielmann, Frank and Stephan, Claudia and Timmreck, Claudia and Zhu, Xiuhua and Stevens, Bjorn},
doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1},
issn = {15200493},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
keywords = {CDR,Section8.4},
number = {9},
pages = {3653--3680},
title = {{Simulated tropical precipitation assessed across three major phases of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP)}},
volume = {148},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Finney2020a,
abstract = {Eastern Africa's fast-growing population is vulnerable to changing rainfall and extremes. Using the first pan-African climate change simulations that explicitly model the rainfall-generating convection, we investigate both the climate change response of key mesoscale drivers of eastern African rainfall, such as sea and lake breezes, and the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall responses. The explicit model shows widespread increases at the end of the century in mean ({\~{}}40{\%}) and extreme ({\~{}}50{\%}) rain rates, whereas the sign of changes in rainfall frequency has large spatial heterogeneity (from −50{\%} to over +90{\%}). In comparison, an equivalent parameterized simulation has greater moisture convergence and total rainfall increase over the eastern Congo and less over eastern Africa. The parameterized model also does not capture 1) the large heterogeneity of changes in rain frequency; 2) the widespread and large increases in extreme rainfall, which result from increased rainfall per humidity change; and 3) the response of rainfall to the changing sea breeze, even though the sea-breeze change is captured. Consequently, previous rainfall projections are likely inadequate for informing many climate-sensitive decisions—for example, for infrastructure in coastal cities. We consider the physics revealed here and its implications to be relevant for many other vulnerable tropical regions, especially those with coastal convection.},
author = {Finney, Declan L. and Marsham, John H. and Rowell, David P. and Kendon, Elizabeth J. and Tucker, Simon O. and Stratton, Rachel A. and Jackson, Lawrence S.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-19-0328.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {7},
pages = {2701--2718},
title = {{Effects of Explicit Convection on Future Projections of Mesoscale Circulations, Rainfall, and Rainfall Extremes over Eastern Africa}},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Finney2020,
abstract = {Variability of rainfall in East Africa has major impacts on lives and livelihoods. From floods to droughts, this variability is important on short daily time-scales to longer decadal time-scales, as is apparent from the devastating effects of droughts in East Africa over recent decades. Past studies have highlighted the Congo airmass in enhancing East African rainfall. Our detailed analysis of the feature shows that days with a westerly moisture flow, bringing the Congo air- mass, enhance rainfall by up to 100{\%} above the daily mean, depending on the time of year. Conversely, there is a suppression of rainfall on days with a strong easterly flow. Days with a westerly moisture flux are in a minority in all seasons but we show that long rains with more westerly days are wetter, and that dur- ing the most-recent decade which has had more frequent droughts (associated with the “Eastern African climate paradox”), there has been few days with such westerlies. We also investigate the influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclones, and their interaction with the westerly flow. We show that days of westerly moisture flux are more likely during phases 3 and 4 of the MJO and when there are one or more tropical cyclones present. In addition, tropical cyclones are more likely to form during these phases of the MJO, and more likely to be coincident with westerlies when forming to the east of Mada- gascar. Overall, our analysis brings together many different processes that have been discussed in the literature but not yet considered in complete combination. The results demonstrate the importance of the Congo airmass on daily to cli- mate time-scales, and in doing so offers useful angles of investigation for future studies into prediction of East African rainfall.},
author = {Finney, Declan L. and Marsham, John H. and Walker, Dean P. and Birch, Cathryn E. and Woodhams, Beth J. and Jackson, Lawrence S. and Hardy, Sam},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3698},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {727},
pages = {647--664},
title = {{The effect of westerlies on East African rainfall and the associated role of tropical cyclones and the Madden–Julian Oscillation}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3698},
volume = {146},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Fischer_2016,
abstract = {Environmental phenomena are often observed first, and then explained quantitatively. The complexity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes manifest themselves to first order in simple ways: heavy precipitation intensification is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and model predictions made decades ago. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts.},
annote = {review of progress in evaluation of heavy precipitation increases with warming},
author = {Fischer, E. M. and Knutti, R.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3110},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {986--991},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fnclimate3110},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Fischer2015,
abstract = {but also in weather extremes. For a few prominent heatwaves and heavy precipitation events a human contribution to their occurrence has been demonstrated1–5. Here we apply a similar framework but estimate what fraction of all globally occurring heavy precipitation and hot extremes is attributable to warming.We show that at the present-day warming of 0.85 C about 18{\%} of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence6. For 2 C of warming the fraction of precipitation extremes attributable to human influence rises to about 40{\%}. Likewise, today about 75{\%} of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming. It is the most rare and extreme events for which the largest fraction is anthropogenic, and that contribution increases nonlinearly with further warming. The approach introduced here is robust owing to its global perspective, less sensitive to model biases than alternative methods and informative for mitigation policy, and thereby complementary to single-event attribution. Combined with information on vulnerability and exposure, it serves as a scientific basis for assessment of global risk fromextremeweather, the discussion of mitigation targets, and liability considerations.},
author = {Fischer, E. M. and Knutti, R.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2617},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {6},
pages = {560--564},
title = {{Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes}},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Fischer2014,
abstract = {Observed trends in the intensity of hot and cold extremes as well as in dry spell length and heavy precipitation intensity are often not significant at local scales. However, using a spatially aggregated perspective, we demonstrate that the probability distribution of observed local trends across the globe for the period 1960-2010 is clearly different to what would be expected from internal variability. We detect a distinct intensification of heavy precipitation events and hot extremes. We show that CMIP5 models generally capture the observed shift in the trend distribution but tend to underestimate the intensification of heavy precipitation and cold extremes and overestimate the intensification in hot extremes. Using an initial condition experiment sampling internal variability, we demonstrate that much of the local to regional differences in trends of extremes can be explained by internal variability, which can regionally mask or amplify the forced long-term trends for many decades. {\textcopyright}2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Fischer, E. M. and Knutti, R.},
doi = {10.1002/2013GL058499},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate detection,heatwave,heavy },
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {547--554},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058499},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Fisher2018,
abstract = {Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). These developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. Here, we review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections but also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:physics/0608246v3},
author = {Fisher, Rosie A. and Koven, Charles D. and Anderegg, William R.L. and Christoffersen, Bradley O. and Dietze, Michael C. and Farrior, Caroline E. and Holm, Jennifer A. and Hurtt, George C. and Knox, Ryan G. and Lawrence, Peter J. and Lichstein, Jeremy W. and Longo, Marcos and Matheny, Ashley M. and Medvigy, David and Muller-Landau, Helene C. and Powell, Thomas L. and Serbin, Shawn P. and Sato, Hisashi and Shuman, Jacquelyn K. and Smith, Benjamin and Trugman, Anna T. and Viskari, Toni and Verbeeck, Hans and Weng, Ensheng and Xu, Chonggang and Xu, Xiangtao and Zhang, Tao and Moorcroft, Paul R.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13910},
eprint = {0608246v3},
isbn = {0000000311403},
issn = {13652486},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Earth System Model,carbon cycle,demographics,dynamic global  models,ecosystem},
number = {1},
pages = {35--54},
pmid = {27935037},
primaryClass = {arXiv:physics},
title = {{Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities}},
volume = {24},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Flaschner2016JClim,
abstract = {This paper assesses intermodel spread in the slope of global-mean precipitation change $\Delta$P with respect to surface temperature change. The ambiguous estimates in the literature for this slope are reconciled by analyzing four experiments from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) and considering different definitions of the slope. The smallest intermodel spread (a factor of 1.5 between the highest and lowest estimate) is found when using a definition that disentangles temperature-independent precipitation changes (the adjustments) from the slope of the temperature-dependent precipitation response; here this slope is referred to as the hydrological sensitivity parameter $\eta$. The estimates herein show that $\eta$ is more robust than stated in most previous work. The authors demonstrate that adjustments and $\eta$ estimated from a steplike quadrupling CO2 experiment serve well to predict $\Delta$P in a transient CO2 experiment. The magnitude of $\eta$ is smaller in the coupled ocean–atmosphere quadrupling CO2 experiment than in the noncoup...},
annote = {Understanding the Intermodel Spread in Global-Mean Hydrological Sensitivity},
author = {Fl{\"{a}}schner, Dagmar and Mauritsen, Thorsten and Stevens, Bjorn},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0351.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Circulation/Dynamics,Climate change,General circulation Heat budgets/fluxes,Hydrologic cycle,Model comparison,Models and modeling,Physical meteorology and climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {801--817},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Understanding the intermodel spread in global-mean hydrological sensitivity}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0351.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Fletcher2018,
author = {Fletcher, Michael-Shawn and Benson, Alexa and Bowman, David M.J.S. and Gadd, Patricia S. and Heijnis, Hendrik and Mariani, Michela and Saunders, Krystyna M. and Wolfe, Brent B. and Zawadzki, Atun},
doi = {10.1130/G39661.1},
issn = {0091-7613},
journal = {Geology},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {363--366},
title = {{Centennial-scale trends in the Southern Annular Mode revealed by hemisphere-wide fire and hydroclimatic trends over the past 2400 years}},
url = {https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/46/4/363/528308/Centennialscale-trends-in-the-Southern-Annular},
volume = {46},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Fogt2011,
author = {Fogt, Ryan L. and Bromwich, David H. and Hines, Keith M.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-010-0905-0},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {1555--1576},
title = {{Understanding the SAM influence on the South Pacific ENSO teleconnection}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-010-0905-0},
volume = {36},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Fontes2018,
abstract = {How plants respond physiologically to leaf warming and low water availability may determine how they will perform under future climate change. In 2015–2016, an unprecedented drought occurred across Amazonia with record-breaking high temperatures and low soil moisture, offering a unique opportunity to evaluate the performances of Amazonian trees to a severe climatic event. We quantified the responses of leaf water potential, sap velocity, whole-tree hydraulic conductance ( K wt ), turgor loss and xylem embolism, during and after the 2015–2016 El Ni{\~{n}}o for five canopy-tree species. Leaf/xylem safety margins (SMs), sap velocity and K wt showed a sharp drop during warm periods. SMs were negatively correlated with vapour pressure deficit, but had no significant relationship with soil water storage. Based on our calculations of canopy stomatal and xylem resistances, the decrease in sap velocity and K wt was due to a combination of xylem cavitation and stomatal closure. Our results suggest that warm droughts greatly amplify the degree of trees' physiological stress and can lead to mortality. Given the extreme nature of the 2015–2016 El Ni{\~{n}}o and that temperatures are predicted to increase, this work can serve as a case study of the possible impact climate warming can have on tropical trees.},
author = {Fontes, Clarissa G. and Dawson, Todd E. and Jardine, Kolby and McDowell, Nate and Gimenez, Bruno O. and Anderegg, Leander and Negr{\'{o}}n-Ju{\'{a}}rez, Robinson and Higuchi, Niro and Fine, Paul V. A. and Ara{\'{u}}jo, Alessandro C. and Chambers, Jeffrey Q.},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2018.0209},
issn = {0962-8436},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
keywords = {2015–2016 El Ni{\~{n}}o,Amazon rainforest,Drought,Leaf,Turgor loss point,Xylem embolism,Xylem safety margins},
month = {nov},
number = {1760},
pages = {20180209},
pmid = {30297481},
title = {{Dry and hot: the hydraulic consequences of a climate change–type drought for Amazonian trees}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2018.0209},
volume = {373},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Formayer2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2016 Royal Meteorological Society Possible changes in precipitation intensity, especially for extreme precipitation events, in a warming climate are of great societal concern. It is generally expected that heavy precipitation will become more intense. The relationship between precipitation intensity and temperature and other factors influencing precipitation is not fully understood yet. Still, a robust estimate for a possible increase in precipitation intensity is of great importance for many applications, such as the planning of flood control or adaptations in agricultural systems. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation, which explains the dependency of the water holding capacity on air temperature, has been proposed as a possible constraint. It would yield an increase of about 7{\%} K −1 warming (deemed the Clausius-Clapeyron rate). In this article, the relation between heavy 1-h precipitation and 2-m air temperature in observations from the recent past at the station in Vienna Austria is studied. Following a methodology outline in previous studies, this study will show that increases around the Clausius-Clapeyron rate are found with steeper increases towards the warm end. These findings confirm those of comparable studies. It remains unclear whether there is a limit to that scaling at a certain temperature because the results become unreliable at the warm end of the temperature range due to insufficient sample sizes. In a second step, the dependency of hourly precipitation extremes on the mean temperature between the 700 and 500 hPa layers is analysed in the same manner. A similar increase is found, but the results remain robust even in higher percentiles of the distribution of temperature values in the respective data sets.},
author = {Formayer, Herbert and Fritz, Alexandra},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4678},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Clausius-Clapeyron,climate change,cloud layer temperature hourly  intensity,temperature dependency},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--10},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Temperature dependency of hourly precipitation intensities – surface versus cloud layer temperature}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4678},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Forzieri2020,
abstract = {Changes in vegetation structure are expected to influence the redistribution of heat and moisture; however, how variations in the leaf area index (LAI) affect this global energy partitioning is not yet quantified. Here, we estimate that a unit change in LAI leads to 3.66 ± 0.45 and −3.26 ± 0.41 W m−2 in latent (LE) and sensible (H) fluxes, respectively, over the 1982–2016 period. Analysis of an ensemble of data-driven products shows that these sensitivities increase by about 20{\%} over the observational period, prominently in regions with a limited water supply, probably because of an increased transpiration/evaporation ratio. Global greening has caused a decrease in the Bowen ratio (B = H/LE) of −0.010 ± 0.002 per decade, which is attributable to the increased evaporative surface. Such a direct LAI effect on energy fluxes is largely modulated by plant functional types (PFTs) and background climate conditions. Land surface models (LSMs) misrepresent this vegetation control, possibly due to underestimation of the biophysical responses to changes in the water availability and poor representation of LAI dynamics.},
author = {Forzieri, Giovanni and Miralles, Diego G. and Ciais, Philippe and Alkama, Ramdane and Ryu, Youngryel and Duveiller, Gregory and Zhang, Ke and Robertson, Eddy and Kautz, Markus and Martens, Brecht and Jiang, Chongya and Arneth, Almut and Georgievski, Goran and Li, Wei and Ceccherini, Guido and Anthoni, Peter and Lawrence, Peter and Wiltshire, Andy and Pongratz, Julia and Piao, Shilong and Sitch, Stephen and Goll, Daniel S. and Arora, Vivek K. and Lienert, Sebastian and Lombardozzi, Danica and Kato, Etsushi and Nabel, Julia E.M.S. and Tian, Hanqin and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Cescatti, Alessandro},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0717-0},
isbn = {4155802007170},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {4},
pages = {356--362},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Increased control of vegetation on global terrestrial energy fluxes}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0717-0},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Fosser2017,
abstract = {To investigate the climate change in the next 30 years over a complex terrain in southwestern Germany, simulations performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at convection-permitting resolution are compared to simulations at 7 km resolution with parameterised convection. An earlier study has shown the main benefits of convection-permitting resolution in the hourly statistics and the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensities. Here, we investigate whether the improved simulation of precipitation in the convection-permitting model is affecting future climate projections in summer. Overall, the future scenario (ECHAM5 with A1B forcing) brings weak changes in mean precipitation, but stronger hourly intensities in the morning and less frequent but more intense daily precipitation. The two model simulations produce similar changes in climate, despite differences in their physical characteristics linked to the formation of convective precipitation. A significant increase in the morning precipitation probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, even the diurnal cycles of precipitation and convection-related indices are similar between resolutions, leading to the conclusion that the 7 km model sufficiently resolves the most extreme convective events. In this region and time periods, the 7 km resolution is deemed sufficient for most assessments of near future precipitation change. However, conclusions could be dependent on the characteristics of the region of investigation.},
author = {Fosser, G. and Khodayar, S. and Berg, P.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3186-4},
isbn = {0038201631},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atmospheric processes,COSMO-CLM,Climate change,Convection,Convection-permitting Regional climate model},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1987--2003},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?}},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Fowler2020,
abstract = {Short- duration (1–3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth's climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short- duration and long- duration ({\textgreater}1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture ({\~{}}7{\%} K−1), while in some regions, increases in short- duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large- scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short- duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks.},
author = {Fowler, Hayley J. and Lenderink, Geert and Prein, Andreas F. and Westra, Seth and Allan, Richard P. and Ban, Nikolina and Barbero, Renaud and Berg, Peter and Blenkinsop, Stephen and Do, Hong X. and Guerreiro, Selma and Haerter, Jan O. and Kendon, Elizabeth J. and Lewis, Elizabeth and Schaer, Christoph and Sharma, Ashish and Villarini, Gabriele and Wasko, Conrad and Zhang, Xuebin},
doi = {10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6},
isbn = {4301702000128},
issn = {2662-138X},
journal = {Nature Reviews Earth {\&} Environment},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {107--122},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6 http://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-00128-6},
volume = {2},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Fowler2020,
abstract = {The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is widely acknowledged for its ability to modulate Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs), but a complete understanding of the underlying mechanisms remains uncertain. Beyond established effects of the MJO's relative humidity envelope, other dynamical factors have recently been invoked via new genesis potential indices and high‐resolution modeling studies. Here we revisit the ability of the MJO to modulate West Pacific TCs through a quasi‐explicit cyclone downscaling strategy driven by composited observations, paired later with a genesis index to investigate regional drivers of modulation. We reveal two distinct spatial modes of TC modulation in which the MJO's dynamic and thermodynamic effects act in tandem to increase TCs. In the South China Sea, for instance, shear reductions associated with the MJO's circulation lead to increasing potential intensity ahead of the arrival of a positive humidity anomaly, all of which combine for an extended period of cyclogenesis favorability.},
author = {Fowler, M. D. and Pritchard, M. S.},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL087148},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {e2020GL087148},
title = {{Regional MJO Modulation of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones Driven by Multiple Transient Controls}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL087148},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Francis2012GRL,
abstract = {Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower‐tropospheric temperatures and in 1000‐to‐500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north‐south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper‐level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea‐ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high‐latitude land. Slower progression of upper‐level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid‐latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.},
annote = {Link between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude water cycle extremes},
author = {Francis, Jennifer A and Vavrus, Stephen J},
doi = {10.1029/2012gl051000},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {L06801},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051000},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{fv15,
abstract = {New metrics and evidence are presented that support a linkage between rapid Arctic warming, relative to Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, and more frequent high-amplitude (wavy) jet-stream configurations that favor persistent weather patterns. We find robust relationships among seasonal and regional patterns of weaker poleward thickness gradients, weaker zonal upper-level winds, and a more meridional flow direction. These results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm faster than elsewhere in response to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations, the frequency of extreme weather events caused by persistent jet-stream patterns will increase.},
author = {Francis, Jennifer A. and Vavrus, Stephen J.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Arctic amplification,extreme weather,jet stream},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {014005},
title = {{Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Frank2015,
abstract = {The Earth's carbon and hydrologic cycles are intimately coupled by gas exchange through plant stomata. However, uncertainties in the magnitude and consequences of the physiological responses of plants to elevated CO2 in natural environments hinders modelling of terrestrial water cycling and carbon storage. Here we use annually resolved long-term $\delta$13C tree-ring measurements across a European forest network to reconstruct the physiologically driven response of intercellular CO2 (Ci) caused by atmospheric CO2 (Ca) trends. When removing meteorological signals from the $\delta$13C measurements, we find that trees across Europe regulated gas exchange so that for one ppmv atmospheric CO2 increase, Ci increased by {\~{}}0.76 ppmv, most consistent with moderate control towards a constant Ci/Ca ratio. This response corresponds to twentieth-century intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) increases of 14 ± 10 and 22 ± 6{\%} at broadleaf and coniferous sites, respectively. An ensemble of process-based global vegetation models shows similar CO2 effects on iWUE trends. Yet, when operating these models with climate drivers reintroduced, despite decreased stomatal opening, 5{\%} increases in European forest transpiration are calculated over the twentieth century. This counterintuitive result arises from lengthened growing seasons, enhanced evaporative demand in a warming climate, and increased leaf area, which together oppose effects of CO2-induced stomatal closure. Our study questions changes to the hydrological cycle, such as reductions in transpiration and air humidity, hypothesized to result from plant responses to anthropogenic emissions.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Frank, D. C. and Poulter, B. and Saurer, M. and Esper, J. and Huntingford, C. and Helle, G. and Treydte, K. and Zimmermann, N. E. and Schleser, G. H. and Ahlstr{\"{o}}m, A. and Ciais, P. and Friedlingstein, P. and Levis, S. and Lomas, M. and Sitch, S. and Viovy, N. and Andreu-Hayles, L. and Bednarz, Z. and Berninger, F. and Boettger, T. and D'alessandro, C. M. and Daux, V. and Filot, M. and Grabner, M. and Gutierrez, E. and Haupt, M. and Hilasvuori, E. and Jungner, H. and Kalela-Brundin, M. and Krapiec, M. and Leuenberger, M. and Loader, N. J. and Marah, H. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Pazdur, A. and Pawelczyk, S. and Pierre, M. and Planells, O. and Pukiene, R. and Reynolds-Henne, C. E. and Rinne, K. T. and Saracino, A. and Sonninen, E. and Stievenard, M. and Switsur, V. R. and Szczepanek, M. and Szychowska-Krapiec, E. and Todaro, L. and Waterhouse, J. S. and Weigl, M.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2614},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {6},
pages = {579--583},
pmid = {24907466},
title = {{Water-use efficiency and transpiration across European forests during the Anthropocene}},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Frankcombe2018,
author = {Frankcombe, Leela M. and England, Matthew H. and Kajtar, Jules B. and Mann, Michael E. and Steinman, Byron A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0662.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {5681--5693},
title = {{On the Choice of Ensemble Mean for Estimating the Forced Signal in the Presence of Internal Variability}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0662.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Franke2013,
abstract = {External forcing and internal dynamics result in climate system variability ranging from sub-daily weather to multi-centennial trends and beyond1, 2. State-of-the-art palaeoclimatic methods routinely use hydroclimatic proxies to reconstruct temperature (for example, refs 3, 4), possibly blurring differences in the variability continuum of temperature and precipitation before the instrumental period. Here, we assess the spectral characteristics of temperature and precipitation fluctuations in observations, model simulations and proxy records across the globe. We find that whereas an ensemble of different general circulation models represents patterns captured in instrumental measurements, such as land–ocean contrasts and enhanced low-frequency tropical variability, the tree-ring-dominated proxy collection does not. The observed dominance of inter-annual precipitation fluctuations is not reflected in the annually resolved hydroclimatic proxy records. Likewise, temperature-sensitive proxies overestimate, on average, the ratio of low- to high-frequency variability. These spectral biases in the proxy records seem to propagate into multi-proxy climate reconstructions for which we observe an overestimation of low-frequency signals. Thus, a proper representation of the high- to low-frequency spectrum in proxy records is needed to reduce uncertainties in climate reconstruction efforts.},
author = {Franke, J{\"{o}}rg and Frank, David and Raible, Christoph C. and Esper, Jan and Br{\"{o}}nnimann, Stefan},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1816},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {360--364},
title = {{Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1816},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Franks2018,
abstract = {Earth system models (ESMs) rely on the calculation of canopy conductance in land surface models (LSMs) to quantify the partitioning of land surface energy, water, and CO2 fluxes. This is achieved by scaling stomatal conductance, gw, determined from physiological models developed for leaves. Traditionally, models for gw have been semi‐empirical, combining physiological functions with empirically determined calibration constants. More recently, optimization theory has been applied to model gw in LSMs under the premise that it has a stronger grounding in physiological theory and might ultimately lead to improved predictive accuracy. However, this premise has not been thoroughly tested. Using original field data from contrasting forest systems, we compare a widely used empirical type and a more recently developed optimization‐type gw model, termed BB and MED, respectively. Overall, we find no difference between the two models when used to simulate gw from photosynthesis data, or leaf gas exchange from a coupled photosynthesis‐conductance model, or gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration for a FLUXNET tower site with the CLM5 community LSM. Field measurements reveal that the key fitted parameters for BB and MED, g1B and g1M, exhibit strong species specificity in magnitude and sensitivity to CO2, and CLM5 simulations reveal that failure to include this sensitivity can result in significant overestimates of evapotranspiration for high‐CO2 scenarios. Further, we show that g1B and g1M can be determined from mean ci/ca (ratio of leaf intercellular to ambient CO2 concentration). Applying this relationship with ci/ca values derived from a leaf $\delta$13C database, we obtain a global distribution of g1B and g1M, and these values correlate significantly with mean annual precipitation. This provides a new methodology for global parameterization of the BB and MED models in LSMs, tied directly to leaf physiology but unconstrained by spatial boundaries separating designated biomes or plant functional types.},
author = {Franks, Peter J. and Bonan, Gordon B. and Berry, Joseph A. and Lombardozzi, Danica L. and Holbrook, N. Michele and Herold, Nicholas and Oleson, Keith W.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14445},
issn = {13652486},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Ball-Berry model,CLM,canopy conductance,forest CO2 response,land surface model,scaling stomatal conductance,stomatal conductance model},
number = {12},
pages = {5708--5723},
title = {{Comparing optimal and empirical stomatal conductance models for application in Earth system models}},
volume = {24},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Franks2017c,
abstract = {The colonization of land by plants and their interaction with biogeochemical and atmospheric processes transformed continental climate and hydrology. Stomata, which evolved to optimize the biological economics of plant carbon uptake in exchange for water loss, play a crucial role in large-scale},
author = {Franks, Peter J. and Berry, Joseph A. and Lombardozzi, Danica L. and Bonan, Gordon B.},
doi = {10.1104/pp.17.00287},
isbn = {0000000335577},
issn = {0032-0889},
journal = {Plant Physiology},
number = {2},
pages = {583--602},
pmid = {28446638},
title = {{Stomatal Function across Temporal and Spatial Scales: Deep-Time Trends, Land-Atmosphere Coupling and Global Models}},
url = {http://www.plantphysiol.org/lookup/doi/10.1104/pp.17.00287},
volume = {174},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Frans2015a,
abstract = {In many partially glacierized watersheds glacier recession driven by a warming climate could lead to complex patterns of streamflow response over time, often marked with rapid increases followed by sharp declines, depending on initial glacier ice cover and rate of climate change. Capturing such "phases" of hydrologic response is critical in regions where communities rely on glacier meltwater, particularly during low flows. In this paper, we investigate glacio-hydrologic response in the headwaters of the Zongo River, Bolivia, under climate change using a distributed glacio-hydrological model over the period of 1987-2100. Model predictions are evaluated through comparisons with satellite-derived glacier extent estimates, glacier surface velocity, in situ glacier mass balance, surface energy flux, and stream discharge measurements. Historically (1987-2010) modeled glacier melt accounts for 27{\%} of annual runoff, and 61{\%} of dry season (JJA) runoff on average. During this period the relative glacier cover was observed to decline from 35 to 21{\%} of the watershed. In the future, annual and dry season discharge is projected to decrease by 4{\%} and 27{\%} by midcentury and 25{\%} and 57{\%} by the end of the century, respectively, following the loss of 81{\%} of the ice in the watershed. Modeled runoff patterns evolve through the interplay of positive and negative trends in glacier melt and increased evapotranspiration as the climate warms. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the selection of model surface energy balance parameters greatly influences the trajectory of hydrological change projected during the first half of the 21st century. These model results underscore the importance of coupled glacio-hydrology modeling.},
author = {Frans, Chris and Istanbulluoglu, Erkan and Lettenmaier, Dennis P. and Naz, Bibi S. and Clarke, Garry K. C. and Condom, Thomas and Burns, Pat and Nolin, Anne W.},
doi = {10.1002/2014WR016728},
issn = {0043-1397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {9029--9052},
title = {{Predicting glacio-hydrologic change in the headwaters of the Zongo River, Cordillera Real, Bolivia}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014WR016728},
volume = {51},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Frappart2009,
abstract = {The Sahel is characterized by low and highly variable rainfall, which strongly affects the hydrology and the climate of the region and creates severe constraints for agriculture and water management. This study provides the first characterization of the rainfall regime for the Gourma region located in Mali, Central Sahel (14.5–17.5°N and 2–1°S). The rainfall regime is described using two datasets: the daily long term raingauge records covering the period 1950–2007, and the high frequency raingauge records collected under the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project between 2005 and 2008. The first rainfall dataset was used to analyse the interannual variability and the spatial distribution of the precipitation. The second dataset is used to analyse the diurnal cycle of precipitation and the nature of the rainfall. This study is complementary to previous analyses conducted in Sahelian areas located further south, where the influence of the continental Sahara heat low is expected to be less pronounced in summer. Rainfall regimes in the Gourma region present a succession of wet (1950–1969) and dry decades (1970–2007). The decrease of summer cumulative rainfall is explained by a reduction in the number of the rainy days in southern Gourma, and a decrease in both the number of rainy days and the daily rainfall in northern and central Gourma. This meridional difference may be related to the relative distances of the zones from the intertropical discontinuity, which is closer to the northern stations. The length of the rainy season has varied since the 1950s with two episodes of shorter rainy seasons: during the drought of the 1980s and also since 2000. However, this second episode is characterized by an increase in the daily rainfall, which suggests an intensification of rainfall events in the more recent years. High-frequency data reveal that a large fraction of the rainfall is produced by intense rain events mostly occurring in late evenings and early mornings during the core of the rainy season (July–September). Conversely, rainfall amounts are less around noon, and this mid-day damping is more pronounced in northern Gourma. All these characteristics have strong implications for agriculture and water resources management.},
author = {Frappart, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Hiernaux, Pierre and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Mougin, Eric and Arjounin, Marc and Lavenu, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Koit{\'{e}}, Mohamed and Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel},
doi = {10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2009.03.007},
issn = {0022-1694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {aug},
number = {1-2},
pages = {128--142},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Rainfall regime across the Sahel band in the Gourma region, Mali}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169409001553?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {375},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Fredriksen2020,
author = {Fredriksen, Hege‐Beate and Berner, Judith and Subramanian, Aneesh C. and Capotondi, Antonietta},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL090640},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {e2020GL090640},
title = {{How Does El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation Change Under Global Warming – A First Look at CMIP6}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL090640},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{French2018,
abstract = {Throughout the western United States and other semiarid mountainous regions across the globe, water supplies are fed primarily through the melting of snowpack. Growing populations place higher demands on water, while warmer winters and earlier springs reduce its supply. Water managers are tantalized by the prospect of cloud seeding as a way to increase winter snowfall, thereby shifting the balance between water supply and demand. Little direct scientific evidence exists that confirms even the basic physical hypothesis upon which cloud seeding relies. The intent of glaciogenic seeding of orographic clouds is to introduce aerosol into a cloud to alter the natural development of cloud particles and enhance wintertime precipitation in a targeted region. The hypothesized chain of events begins with the introduction of silver iodide aerosol into cloud regions containing supercooled liquid water, leading to the nucleation of ice crystals, followed by ice particle growth to sizes sufficiently large such that snow falls to the ground. Despite numerous experiments spanning several decades, no direct observations of this process exist. Here, measurements from radars and aircraft-mounted cloud physics probes are presented that together show the initiation, growth, and fallout to the mountain surface of ice crystals resulting from glaciogenic seeding. These data, by themselves, do not address the question of cloud seeding efficacy, but rather form a critical set of observations necessary for such investigations. These observations are unambiguous and provide details of the physical chain of events following the introduction of glaciogenic cloud seeding aerosol into supercooled liquid orographic clouds.},
author = {French, Jeffrey R and Friedrich, Katja and Tessendorf, Sarah A and Rauber, Robert M and Geerts, Bart and Rasmussen, Roy M and Xue, Lulin and Kunkel, Melvin L and Blestrud, Derek R},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1716995115},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {6},
pages = {1168--1173},
pmid = {29358387},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Precipitation formation from orographic cloud seeding}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1716995115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Freud2012,
abstract = {Coalescence of cloud droplets is essential for the production of small raindrops at a given vertical distance above the cloud base (Dp). The rate of droplet coalescence is determined mainly by droplet size, spectrum width and concentrations. The droplet condensational growth is determined by the number of activated CCN (Na) and height above cloud base. Here we show that when the droplet mean volume radius, rv, exceeds ∼13 $\mu$m, or when droplet effective radius (re) exceeds ∼14 $\mu$m, considerable precipitation mass ({\textgreater}0.03 g kg−1) is likely to be present in growing convective clouds. This is because the rate of droplet coalescence is proportional to ∼rv5 which practically implies the existence of a threshold rv above which efficient warm rain formation can occur, and also because the vertical profile of rv, even in diluted clouds, nearly follows the theoretical adiabatic condensational growth curve. The small observed deviations are mainly caused by deviations from purely inhomogeneous mixing which cause partial droplet evaporation. Consequently, Dp must theoretically change nearly linearly with Na. This is confirmed here observationally, where increasing Na by 100 per milligram (≈cm3 at cloud base) of air, resulted in an increase of ∼280 m in Dpfor both Israeli and Indian deep convective clouds. This means that in highly polluted clouds or where strong cloud‐base updrafts occur, clouds have to grow well above the freezing level, even in tropical atmosphere, before precipitation forms either by warm or by mixed‐phase processes.},
author = {Freud, E and Rosenfeld, D},
doi = {10.1029/2011JD016457},
issn = {01480227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jan},
number = {D2},
pages = {D02207},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Linear relation between convective cloud drop number concentration and depth for rain initiation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011JD016457},
volume = {117},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Freund2017a,
author = {Freund, M B and Henley, B J and Karoly, D J and Allen, K J and Baker, P J},
doi = {10.5194/cp-13-1751-2017},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {12},
pages = {1751--1770},
title = {{Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions}},
volume = {13},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Freund2020,
abstract = {Given the consequences and global significance of El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events it is essential to understand the representation of El Ni{\~{n}}o diversity in climate models for the present day and the future. In recent decades, El Ni{\~{n}}o events have occurred more frequently in the central Pacific (CP). Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni{\~{n}}o events have increased in intensity. However, the processes and future implications of these observed changes in El Ni{\~{n}}o are not well understood. Here, the frequency and intensity of El Ni{\~{n}}o events are assessed in models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and results are compared to extended instrumental and multicentury paleoclimate records. Future changes of El Ni{\~{n}}o are stronger for CP events than for EP events and differ between models. Models with a projected La Ni{\~{n}}a–like mean-state warming pattern show a tendency toward more EP but fewer CP events compared to models with an El Ni{\~{n}}o–like warming pattern. Among the models with more El Ni{\~{n}}o–like warming, differences in future El Ni{\~{n}}o can be partially explained by Pacific decadal variability (PDV). During positive PDV phases, more El Ni{\~{n}}o events occur, so future frequency changes are mainly determined by projected changes during positive PDV phases. Similarly, the intensity of El Ni{\~{n}}o is strongest during positive PDV phases. Future changes to El Ni{\~{n}}o may thus depend on both mean-state warming and decadal-scale natural variability.},
author = {Freund, Mandy B. and Brown, Josephine R. and Henley, Benjamin J. and Karoly, David J. and Brown, Jaclyn N.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0890.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {8237--8260},
title = {{Warming Patterns Affect El Ni{\~{n}}o Diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0890.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{friedman_et_al_2013,
abstract = {The temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres—the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA)—is an emerging indicator of global climate change, potentially relevant to the Hadley circulation and tropical rainfall. The authors examine the ITA in historical observations and in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) simulations. The observed annual-mean ITA (north minus south) has varied within a 0.8°C range and features a significant positive trend since 1980. The CMIP multimodel ensembles simulate this trend, with a stronger and more realistic signal in CMIP5. Both ensembles project a continued increase in the ITA over the twenty-first century, well outside the twentieth-century range. The authors mainly attribute this increase to the uneven spatial impacts of greenhouse forcing, which result in amplified warming in the Arctic and northern landmasses. The CMIP5 specific-forcing simulations indicate that, before 1980, the greenhouse-forced ITA trend was primarily countered by anthropogenic aerosols. The authors also identify an abrupt decrease in the observed ITA in the late 1960s, which is generally not present in the CMIP simulations; it suggests that the observed drop was caused by internal variability. The difference in the strengths of the northern and southern Hadley cells covaries with the ITA in the CMIP5 simulations, in accordance with previous findings; the authors also find an association with the hemispheric asymmetry in tropical rainfall. These relationships imply a northward shift in tropical rainfall with increasing ITA in the twenty-first century, though this result is difficult to separate from the response to global-mean temperature change.},
author = {Friedman, Andrew R and Hwang, Yen-Ting and Chiang, John C H and Frierson, Dargan M W},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00525.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {5419--5433},
title = {{Interhemispheric Temperature Asymmetry over the Twentieth Century and in Future Projections}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00525.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Friedrich2020,
abstract = {Climate change and population growth have increased demand for water in arid regions. For over half a century, cloud seeding has been evaluated as a technology to increase water supply; statistical approaches have compared seeded to nonseeded events through precipitation gauge analyses. Here, a physically based approach to quantify snowfall from cloud seeding in mountain cloud systems is presented. Areas of precipitation unambiguously attributed to cloud seeding are isolated from natural precipitation ({\textless}1 mm h−1). Spatial and temporal evolution of precipitation generated by cloud seeding is then quantified using radar observations and snow gauge measurements. This study uses the approach of combining radar technology and precipitation gauge measurements to quantify the spatial and temporal evolution of snowfall generated from glaciogenic cloud seeding of winter mountain cloud systems and its spatial and temporal evolution. The results represent a critical step toward quantifying cloud seeding impact. For the cases presented, precipitation gauges measured increases between 0.05 and 0.3 mm as precipitation generated by cloud seeding passed over the instruments. The total amount of water generated by cloud seeding ranged from 1.2 × 105 m3 (100 ac ft) for 20 min of cloud seeding, 2.4 × 105 m3 (196 ac ft) for 86 min of seeding to 3.4 x 105 m3 (275 ac ft) for 24 min of cloud seeding.},
author = {Friedrich, Katja and Ikeda, Kyoko and Tessendorf, Sarah A. and French, Jeffrey R. and Rauber, Robert M. and Geerts, Bart and Xue, Lulin and Rasmussen, Roy M. and Blestrud, Derek R. and Kunkel, Melvin L. and Dawson, Nicholas and Parkinson, Shaun},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1917204117},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {10},
pages = {5190--5195},
pmid = {32094189},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Quantifying snowfall from orographic cloud seeding}},
volume = {117},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Frierson2007,
abstract = {The width of the Hadley cell is studied over a wide range of climate regimes using both simple and comprehensive atmospheric general circulation models. Aquaplanet, fixed sea surface temperature lower boundary conditions are used in both models to study the response of the Hadley cell width to changes in both global mean temperature and pole-to-equator temperature gradient. The primary sensitivity of both models is a large expansion of the Hadley cell with increased mean temperature. The models also exhibit a smaller increase in width with temperature gradient. The Hadley cell widths agree well with a scaling theory by Held which assumes that the width is determined by the latitude where baroclinic eddies begin to occur. As surface temperatures are warmed, the latitude of baroclinic instability onset is shifted poleward due to increases in the static stability of the subtropics, which is increased in an atmosphere with higher moisture content.},
author = {Frierson, Dargan M. W. and Lu, Jian and Chen, Gang},
doi = {10.1029/2007GL031115},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {L18804},
title = {{Width of the Hadley cell in simple and comprehensive general circulation models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2007GL031115},
volume = {34},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Frierson2013,
abstract = {Rainfall in the tropics is largely focused in a narrow zonal band near the Equator, known as the intertropical convergence zone. On average, substantially more rain falls just north of the Equator. This hemispheric asymmetry in tropical rainfall has been attributed to hemispheric asymmetries in ocean temperature induced by tropical landmasses. However, the ocean meridional overturning circulation also redistributes energy, by carrying heat northwards across the Equator. Here, we use satellite observations of the Earth's energy budget, atmospheric reanalyses and global climate model simulations to study tropical rainfall using a global energetic framework. We show that the meridional overturning circulation contributes significantly to the hemispheric asymmetry in tropical rainfall by transporting heat from the Southern Hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere, and thereby pushing the tropical rain band north. This northward shift in tropical precipitation is seen in global climate model simulations when ocean heat transport is included, regardless of whether continents are present or not. If the strength of the meridional overturning circulation is reduced in the future as a result of global warming, as has been suggested, precipitation patterns in the tropics could change, with potential societal consequences.},
annote = {northward transport of energy in Atlantic explains present day position of ITCZ in northern hemisphere},
author = {Frierson, Dargan M.W. and Hwang, Yen Ting and Fu{\v{c}}kar, Neven S. and Seager, Richard and Kang, Sarah M. and Donohoe, Aaron and Maroon, Elizabeth A. and Liu, Xiaojuan and Battisti, David S.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1987},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {17520894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {oct},
number = {11},
pages = {940--944},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Contribution of ocean overturning circulation to tropical rainfall peak in the Northern Hemisphere}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1987},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Froidevaux2016QJRMS,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2016 Royal Meteorological Society Floods in mountainous regions like the Swiss Alps are still challenging to forecast because they result from very diverse hydrometeorological processes. A better understanding of large-scale flood precursors is therefore important. In this study the synoptic situations leading to 14 high-impact floods in Switzerland between 1987 and 2011 are analysed using the ERA-Interim dataset. In a first step, the flood-related synoptic flow situations are classified into four categories: (i) atmospheric rivers (ARs) with northwesterly flow associated with floods in northwest Switzerland; (ii) ARs with west to souhwesterly flow associated with floods in northern Switzerland; (iii) pivoting potential vorticity (PV) cut-offs associated with floods in northeast Switzerland and (iv) PV streamers associated with floods in southern Switzerland. The strong link between ARs and floods in northern Switzerland is demonstrated for the first time. The four synoptic categories are associated with very different flow patterns over Switzerland, but all categories correspond to intense integrated vapour transport (IVT) directed perpendicular to orography. In a second step, the episodes of intense IVT related to the 14 floods are compared to the local climatology in terms of IVT amplitude, direction and duration. Ten of the 14 flood events correspond to exceptionally intense IVT perpendicular to orography. Despite the enormous complexity of the involved hydrometeorological processes, applying four simple thresholds of IVT toward orography at particular grid points of ERA-Interim allows one to distinguish ten flood events from all non-flood situations with only six non-events captured and four missed flood events. The close relationship between large-scale IVT and highly destructive local flood events shown here motivates the use of IVT information for medium-range flood warning systems.},
annote = {exceptional moisture transport linked to Swiss flooding},
author = {Froidevaux, Paul and Martius, Olivia},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2793},
issn = {1477870X},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {atmospheric integrated vapour atmospheric river,flood warning,heavy  },
month = {may},
number = {698},
pages = {1997--2012},
publisher = {Wiley},
title = {{Exceptional integrated vapour transport toward orography: an important precursor to severe floods in Switzerland}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2793},
volume = {142},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Fromang2020,
abstract = {The aim of the paper is to investigate the influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using a quasigeostrophic model on the sphere. A simplified forcing based on potential vorticity anomalies in the tropics is used to mimic the MJO. The idealized nature of our setup allows us to determine the distinct roles played by stationary and synoptic waves. This is done by means of several series of almost 10 000 short runs of 30 days. Ensemble averages and a streamfunction budget analysis are used to study the modifications of the flow induced by the MJO. We find that a stationary Rossby wave is excited in the tropics during MJO phase 3. The western part of the Pacific jet is displaced poleward, which modifies the transient eddy activity in that basin. These changes create a ridge south of Alaska, which favors equatorward propagation of synoptic waves and larger poleward eddy momentum fluxes from the eastern Pacific toward the Atlantic, increasing the frequency of occurrence of the positive NAO events. The situation is essentially reversed following phase 6 of the MJO and conducive to the negative phase of the NAO. For a realistic MJO forcing amplitude, we find increases in both NAO phases to be around 30{\%}, in reasonable agreement with the observations given the model simplicity. Finally, we present a series of experiments to assess the relative importance of linear versus nonlinear effects.},
author = {Fromang, Sebastien and Rivi{\`{e}}re, Gwendal},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-19-0178.1},
issn = {0022-4928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {1613--1635},
title = {{The Effect of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the North Atlantic Oscillation Using Idealized Numerical Experiments}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jas/article/77/5/1613/345233/The-Effect-of-the-MaddenJulian-Oscillation-on-the},
volume = {77},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Fu2014JGR,
abstract = {The dryness of terrestrial climate can be measured by the ratio of annual precipitation (P)to potential evapotranspiration (PET), where the latter represents the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, which depends on the surface air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and available energy. This study examines how the terrestrial mean aridity responds to global warming in terms of P/PET using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 transient CO2 increase to 2×CO2 simulations. We show that the (percentage) increase (rate) in P averaged over land is {\~{}}1.7{\%}/°C ocean mean surface air temperature increase, while the increase in PET is 5.3{\%}/°C, leading to a decrease in P/PET (i.e., a drier terrestrial climate) by {\~{}}3.4{\%}/°C. Noting a similar rate of percentage increase in P over land to that in evaporation (E)over ocean, we propose a framework for examining the change in P/PET, in which we compare the change in PET over land and E over ocean, both expressed using the Penman–Monteith formula. We show that a drier terrestrial climate is caused by (i) enhanced land warming relative to the ocean, (ii) a decrease in relative humidity over land but an increase over ocean, (iii) part of increase in net downward surface radiation going into the deep ocean, and (iv) different responses of PET over land and E over ocean for given changes in atmospheric conditions (largely associated with changes in temperatures). The relative contributions to the change in terrestrial mean aridity from these four factors are about 35{\%}, 35{\%}, 15{\%}, and 15{\%}, respectively. The slight slowdown of the surface wind over both land and ocean has little impact on the terrestrial mean aridity.},
annote = {decrease in P/PET (drier terrestrial climate) by {\~{}}3.4{\%}/K},
author = {Fu, Qiang and Feng, Song},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD021608},
isbn = {2169-8996},
issn = {21562202},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {7863--7875},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Responses of terrestrial aridity to global warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2014jd021608},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Fu2013a,
author = {Fu, Rong and Yin, Lei and Li, Wenhong and Arias, Paola A. and Dickinson, Robert E. and Huang, Lei and Chakraborty, Sudip and Fernandes, Katia and Liebmann, Brant and Fisher, Rosie and Myneni, R. B.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1302584110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {45},
pages = {18110--18115},
title = {{Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1302584110},
volume = {110},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Fujita2018,
author = {Fujita, M and Mizuta, R and Ishii, M and Endo, H and Sato, T. and Okada, Y. and Kawazoe, S. and Sugimoto, S. and Ishihara, K. and Watanabe, S.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079885},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {435--442},
title = {{Precipitation Changes in a Climate With 2‐K Surface Warming From Large Ensemble Simulations Using 60-km Global and 20-km Regional Atmospheric Models}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL079885},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Fumiere2020,
abstract = {South-East France is a region often affected by heavy precipitating events the characteristics of which are likely to be significantly impacted in the future climate. In this study, cnrm-arome, a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model with a 2.5 km horizontal resolution is compared to its forcing model, the Regional Climate Model aladin-climate at a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km, self-driven by the era-interim reanalysis. An hourly observation dataset with a resolution of 1 km, comephore, is used in order to assess simulated surface precipitation from a seasonal to hourly scale. The representation of the spatial pattern of fall precipitation climatology is improved by cnrm-arome. It also shows a clear added value with respect to aladin-climate through the improvement of the localization and intensity of extreme rainfall on a daily and hourly time scale on both fine and coarse spatial scales (2.5, 12.5 and 50 km). cnrm-arome in particular is able to simulate intense rainfall on lowlands and makes sub-daily rainfall events more intense than aladin-climate. cnrm-arome still underestimates very extreme precipitation from above 30 mm/h or 230 mm/day.},
author = {Fumi{\`{e}}re, Quentin and D{\'{e}}qu{\'{e}}, Michel and Nuissier, Olivier and Somot, Samuel and Alias, Antoinette and Caillaud, C{\'{e}}cile and Laurantin, Olivier and Seity, Yann},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Added value,Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model,Heavy precipitating events,aladin-climate,cnrm-arome,comephore},
number = {1-2},
pages = {77--91},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8},
volume = {55},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Fuss2018,
abstract = {The most recent IPCC assessment has shown an important role for negative emissions technologies (NETs) in limiting global warming to 2 °C cost-effectively. However, a bottom-up, systematic, reproducible, and transparent literature assessment of the different options to remove CO2 from the atmosphere is currently missing. In part 1 of this three-part review on NETs, we assemble a comprehensive set of the relevant literature so far published, focusing on seven technologies: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation and reforestation, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, biochar, and soil carbon sequestration. In this part, part 2 of the review, we present estimates of costs, potentials, and side-effects for these technologies, and qualify them with the authors' assessment. Part 3 reviews the innovation and scaling challenges that must be addressed to realise NETs deployment as a viable climate mitigation strategy. Based on a systematic review of the literature, our best estimates for sustainable global NET potentials in 2050 are 0.5-3.6 GtCO2 yr-1 for afforestation and reforestation, 0.5-5 GtCO2 yr-1 for BECCS, 0.5-2 GtCO2 yr-1 for biochar, 2-4 GtCO2 yr-1 for enhanced weathering, 0.5-5 GtCO2 yr-1 for DACCS, and up to 5 GtCO2 yr-1 for soil carbon sequestration. Costs vary widely across the technologies, as do their permanency and cumulative potentials beyond 2050. It is unlikely that a single NET will be able to sustainably meet the rates of carbon uptake described in integrated assessment pathways consistent with 1.5 °C of global warming.},
author = {Fuss, Sabine and Lamb, William F. and Callaghan, Max W. and Hilaire, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Creutzig, Felix and Amann, Thorben and Beringer, Tim and {De Oliveira Garcia}, Wagner and Hartmann, Jens and Khanna, Tarun and Luderer, Gunnar and Nemet, Gregory F. and Rogelj, Joeri and Smith, Pete and Vicente, Jos{\'{e}}luis Vicente and Wilcox, Jennifer and {Del Mar Zamora Dominguez}, Maria and Minx, Jan C.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {carbon dioxide removal,climate change mitigation,negative emission technologies,scenarios},
number = {6},
pages = {063002},
title = {{Negative emissions – Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects}},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gaetani2020,
abstract = {The time of emergence (TOE) of climate change is defined as the time when a new climate state emerges from a prior one. TOE assessment is particularly relevant in West Africa, a region highly threatened by climate change and urgently needing trustworthy climate predictions. In this paper, the TOE of precipitation change in West Africa is assessed for the first time, by analyzing 6 precipitation metrics (cumulated precipitation, number of wet and very wet days, onset and length of the rainy season) computed from the output of 29 state-of-the-art climate models. In West Sahel, climate conditions characterized by reduced occurrence of wet days are likely to emerge before 2036, leading to the possible emergence of a dryer climate in 2028–2052. In East Sahel, a wetter precipitation regime characterized by increased occurrence of very wet days is likely to emerge before 2054. Results do not provide a clear indication about a possible climate shift in the onset and length of the rainy season. Although uncertainty in climate model future projections still limits the robust determination of TOE locally, this study provides reliable time constraints to the expected climate shift in West Africa at the sub-regional scale, supporting adaptation measures to the future change in the precipitation regime.},
author = {Gaetani, Marco and Janicot, Serge and Vrac, Mathieu and Famien, Adjoua Moise and Sultan, Benjamin},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-63782-2},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {7670},
title = {{Robust assessment of the time of emergence of precipitation change in West Africa}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63782-2},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Gallant2013a,
abstract = {Climatologies and variations in seasonal-scale droughts in Australia are quantified using four indices representing the characteristics of the lower tails of rainfall and soil moisture distributions. These indices estimate variations in drought frequency, duration and intensity from 1911 to 2009 across Australia and for five large-scale regions. Since 1911, large interdecadal variations in the characteristics of seasonal-scale droughts have overlain trends towards less frequent, shorter and less severe droughts across much of Australia, with the strongest trends in northwest Australia. Regional exceptions include increases in seasonal-scale drought frequency, duration and intensity in areas of southwest and southeast Australia. In parts of the west and southeast of the Murray-Darling Basin, the average duration of seasonal-scale droughts, defined as successive seasons in drought, statistically significantly increased by between 10 and 69{\%} during the second half of the 20th Century. Averaged across large-scale regions in southeast and northwest Australia, decades with longer-lasting and more intense soil moisture-based seasonal droughts had statistically significantly higher actual evaporation compared with other decades. These were combined with modest rainfall deficits, suggesting that evaporation may be an important process for regulating drought duration or intensity in these regions. However, other hydroclimatic processes that were not assessed here likely also influence soil moisture, making attribution difficult. {\textcopyright} 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.},
author = {Gallant, Ailie J. E. and Reeder, Michael J. and Risbey, James S. and Hennessy, Kevin J.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3540},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Australia,Climatology,Drought,Evaporation,Rainfall,Trends,Variability},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {1658--1672},
title = {{The characteristics of seasonal-scale droughts in Australia, 1911–2009}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3540},
volume = {33},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Gallego2017,
abstract = {A new bicentennial series of the Australian monsoon strength based on historical wind observations has allowed for the assessment of the variability of this system since the early 19th century. Our series covers a period in which the scarcity of meteorological observations in the area had precluded the evaluation of long-term climatic trends. Results indicate that the increase in precipitation over Northern Australia reported for the last 60 years is just a manifestation of a much longer lasting trend related to the strengthening of the Australian monsoon that has been occurring since at least 1816.},
author = {Gallego, David and Garc{\'{i}}a-Herrera, Ricardo and Pe{\~{n}}a-Ortiz, Cristina and Ribera, Pedro},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-16414-1},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {1--7},
pmid = {29170490},
title = {{The steady enhancement of the Australian Summer Monsoon in the last 200 years}},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{gw14,
author = {Gan, Bolan and Wu, Lixin},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2263},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {jul},
number = {683},
pages = {1945--1957},
title = {{Centennial trends in Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks over the twentieth century}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2263},
volume = {140},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Ganeshietal.2020,
author = {Ganeshi, Naresh G. and Mujumdar, Milind and Krishnan, R. and Goswami, Mangesh},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125183},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Generalized extreme value distribution,North-central India,Soil moisture memory,Soil moisture-temperature coupling,Surface energy partitioning,Temperature extremes,soil moisture memory,soil moisture-temperature coupling,temperature extremes},
month = {oct},
number = {June},
pages = {125183},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Understanding the linkage between soil moisture variability and temperature extremes over the Indian region}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125183 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169420306430},
volume = {589},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ganguli2019,
abstract = {Abstract We analyze trends in compound flooding resulting from high coastal water levels (HCWLs) and peak river discharge over northwestern Europe during 1901?2014. Compound peak discharge associated with 37 stream gauges with at least 70 years of record availability near the North and Baltic Sea coasts is used. Compound flooding is assessed using a newly developed index, compound hazard ratio, that compares the severity of river flooding associated with HCWL with the at-site, T-year (a flood with 1/T chance of being exceeded in any given year) fluvial peak discharge. Our findings suggest a spatially coherent pattern in the dependence between HCWL and river peaks and in compound flood magnitudes and frequency. For higher return levels, we find upward trends in compound hazard ratio frequency at midlatitudes (gauges from 47°N to 60°N) and downward trends along the high latitude ({\textgreater}60°N) regions of northwestern Europe.},
author = {Ganguli, Poulomi and Merz, Bruno},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084220},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {compound flood,dependence,northwestern risk modeling},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {10810--10820},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Trends in Compound Flooding in Northwestern Europe During 1901–2014}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084220 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084220},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gao2017,
abstract = {The climatic aftermath of the 1815 Tambora eruption in Europe suggests that large volcanic eruptions can introduce environmental and societal consequences in this region. Here, we analyse the European summer hydrological response to 31 tropical and 44 Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude eruptions over the past nine centuries, using a newly published reconstruction of global volcanism and a proxy record of hydrological conditions (Old World Drought Atlas) together with a superposed epoch analysis. Our results show a significant wetting response (at the 95{\%} confidence level) for year 0 and year +1 after tropical eruptions, followed by a significant drying in year +2. Spatially, wetting occurs in northeast and southern Europe, while a drying response develops in central and northwest Europe. Both the wetting and drying responses are more significant for the group of eruptions with higher sulphate injection magnitudes than the eruptions with low magnitudes. Large high latitude eruptions tend to cause a drying response in western-central Europe in year +2, which shifts south-eastwards in years +3 and +4. Correcting for the effects of El Nino does not noticeably change the response patterns. The response to eruptions counteracts the hydroclimate response to global warming in some regions, e.g. the Mediterranean, but exaggerates is in others, such as central Europe. Our results verify previous modelling studies from a longer term proxy perspective, and illuminate potential effects of stratospheric geoengineering in Europe.},
author = {Gao, Yujuan and Gao, Chaochao},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5054},
isbn = {08998418},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Europe,OWDA,hydroclimate response,volcanic eruptions},
number = {11},
pages = {4146--4157},
title = {{European hydroclimate response to volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries}},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gao2019,
author = {Gao, Junqiang and Xie, Zhenghui and Wang, Aiwen and Liu, Shuang and Zeng, Yujin and Liu, Bin and Li, Ruichao and Jia, Binghao and Qin, Peihua and Xie, Jinbo},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001399},
isbn = {0000000183},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {659--679},
title = {{A New Frozen Soil Parameterization Including Frost and Thaw Fronts in the Community Land Model}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018MS001399 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018MS001399},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{g15,
author = {Gao, Yang and Lu, Jian and Leung, L. Ruby and Yang, Qing and Hagos, Samson and Qian, Yun},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL065435},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {7179--7186},
title = {{Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL065435},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Garcia-Garcia2019,
abstract = {The relationships between air and ground surface temperatures across North America are examined in the historical and future projection simulations from 32 general circulation models (GCMs) included in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The difference between surface air (2 m) and ground surface (10 cm) temperatures is affected by simulated snow cover, vegetation cover, and precipitation by means of changes in soil moisture and soil properties. In winter, the differences between air and ground surface temperatures, for all CMIP5 simulations, are related to the insulating effect of snow cover and soil freezing phenomena. In summer, large leaf area index and large precipitation rates correspond to smaller differences between air and ground temperatures for the majority of simulations, likely due to induced changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes at the ground surface. Our results show that the representation of air-ground coupling, analyzed using the difference between ground and air surface temperatures as metric, differs from observations, the North American Regional Reanalysis product and among the CMIP5 GCM simulations, by amounts that depend on the employed land surface model. The large variability among GCMs and the marked dependence of the results on the choice of the land surface model illustrate the need for improving the representation of processes controlling the coupling of the lower atmosphere and the land surface in GCMs as a mean of reducing the variability in their representation of weather and climate phenomena.},
author = {Garc{\'{i}}a-Garc{\'{i}}a, Almudena and Cuesta-Valero, Francisco Jos{\'{e}} and Beltrami, Hugo and Smerdon, Jason E.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD030117},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CMIP5 GCMs,air-ground coupling,land surface model},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3903--3929},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Characterization of Air and Ground Temperature Relationships within the CMIP5 Historical and Future Climate Simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030117},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Garcia-Herrera2006,
abstract = {The interseasonal relationship between Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover and regional blocking patterns is explored for a 31-year data set. It is found that snow cover exerts an important influence on regional atmospheric blocking, which, in turn, modulates snow cover extent at subcontinental scales. Observational results provide strong evidence of two primary linkages in the seasonal snow cover-blocking relationship that support an interannual persistence cycle: The first one links winter blocking over the Atlantic and the subsequent spring (summer) Eurasian (North American) snow cover anomalies; the second one implies that spring (summer) Eurasian (North American) snow cover precedes an anomalous winter Atlantic blocking activity. We describe the temporal stages of the snow cover-blocking relationship in the framework of a six-step conceptual model. According to that, an enhanced Atlantic blocking activity in winter favors a later spring snow disappearance through an enhanced cold advection toward western Eurasia. The resulting snow cover anomalies partially force an opposite-sign blocking response over west and central Pacific which is sustained through spring and early summer, presumably because of the persistence of snow cover anomalies. This anomalous pattern seems to play a role in the propagation of snow cover anomalies from Eurasia in spring to the Hudson's Bay region of North America in summer. The excessive snow cover over this region induces an asymmetrical temperature distribution, which, in turn, favors blocking activity over Europe and the West Pacific. The connection between autumn and winter climates is not clear but it could be related with the ability of autumn high ATL blocking activity to determine an early snow cover appearance in October over western Eurasia. This linkage completes a snow cover-blocking cycle of interactions which identifies snow cover as a candidate for the recently observed blocking trends and a contributor to the interannual persistence of winter climate. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.},
author = {Garc{\'{i}}a-Herrera, Ricardo and Barriopedro, David},
doi = {10.1029/2005JD006975},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {blocking,snow cover},
month = {nov},
number = {D21},
pages = {D21104},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere snow cover and atmospheric blocking variability}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2005JD006975},
volume = {111},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Garcia-Martinez2020,
abstract = {The effects of increased North American sulphate aerosol emissions on the climate of Mexico and the United States (U.S.) during 1950-1975 are investigated by using two sets of transient coupled experiments with the Community Earth System Model, one with historically evolving emissions, and a second one where North American SO2 emissions are kept at their pre-industrial levels. The 1950-1975 increase in North American sulphate aerosols is found to have regional and remote impact. Over central U.S. and northern Mexico, the strengthening and westward expansion of the North Atlantic Subtropical High and subsequent intensification of the low-level easterlies, along with local aerosol interactions with radiation and clouds, cause a cooling trend and enhance precipitation. The interaction between the enhanced moisture transport across the Gulf of Mexico and the elevated topography of central Mexico favours positive rainfall on the Atlantic side while suppressing it on the Pacific side. These continental anomalies are embedded in a hemispheric-wide upper-tropospheric teleconnection pattern over the mid-latitudes, extending from the Pacific to the Atlantic basin. Details of the underlying mechanisms - in particular the prominent role of dynamical adjustments - are provided. With SO2 emissions considerably reduced in the U.S., and the expectation of a continued global decline throughout the 21st century, this study sheds light upon possible ongoing and future regional climate responses to changes in anthropogenic forcing.},
author = {Garc{\'{i}}a-Mart{\'{i}}nez, Ivonne M. and Bollasina, Massimo A. and Undorf, Sabine},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abbe45},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {anthropogenic aerosols,atmospheric circulation,hydroclimate change},
number = {11},
pages = {114051},
title = {{Strong large-scale climate response to North American sulphate aerosols in CESM}},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Garfinkel2020a,
abstract = {Climate models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) vary significantly in their ability to simulate the phase and amplitude of atmospheric stationary waves in the midlatitude Southern Hemisphere. These models also suffer from a double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), with excessive precipitation in the tropical eastern South Pacific, and many also suffer from a biased simulation of the dynamics of the Agulhas Current around the tip of South Africa. The intermodel spread in the strength and phasing of SH midlatitude stationary waves in the CMIP archive is shown to be significantly correlated with the double-ITCZ bias and biases in the Agulhas Return Current. An idealized general circulation model (GCM) is used to demonstrate the causality of these links by prescribing an oceanic heat flux out of the tropical east Pacific and near the Agulhas Current. A warm bias in tropical east Pacific SSTs associated with an erroneous double ITCZ leads to a biased representation of midlatitude stationary waves in the austral hemisphere, capturing the response evident in CMIP models. Similarly, an overly diffuse sea surface temperature gradient associated with a weak Agulhas Return Current leads to an equatorward shift of the Southern Hemisphere jet by more than 3° and weak stationary wave activity in the austral hemisphere. Hence, rectification of the double-ITCZ bias and a better representation of the Agulhas Current should be expected to lead to an improved model representation of the austral hemisphere.},
author = {Garfinkel, Chaim I. and White, Ian and Gerber, Edwin P. and Jucker, Martin},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-20-0195.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Boundary currents,Intertropical convergence zone,Stationary waves},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {9351--9374},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The Impact of SST Biases in the Tropical East Pacific and Agulhas Current Region on Atmospheric Stationary Waves in the Southern Hemisphere}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Gariano2016ESR,
abstract = {Warming of the Earth climate system is unequivocal. That climate changes affect the stability of natural and engineered slopes and have consequences on landslides, is also undisputable. Less clear is the type, extent, magnitude and direction of the changes in the stability conditions, and on the location, abundance, activity and frequency of landslides in response to the projected climate changes. Climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales, complicating the evaluation of the climate impacts on landslides. We review the literature on landslide-climate studies, and find a bias in their geographical distribution, with large parts of the world not investigated. We recommend to fill the gap with new studies in Asia, South America, and Africa. We examine advantages and limits of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records. We consider changes in temperature, precipitation, wind and weather systems, and their direct and indirect effects on the stability of single slopes, and we use a probabilistic landslide hazard model to appraise regional landslide changes. Our review indicates that the modelling results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the Global Circulation Models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. We advocate for constructing ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios, and to use carefully results from worst-case scenarios that may over/under-estimate landslide hazards and risk. We further advocate that uncertainties in the landslide projections must be quantified and communicated to decision makers and the public. We perform a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, and we present a global map of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance. Where global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, we predict an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk. Finally, we give recommendations for landslide adaptation and risk reduction strategies in the framework of a warming climate.},
annote = {An increasing frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events is expected to increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk although substantial model-related and scenario uncertainty exist.},
author = {Gariano, Stefano Luigi and Guzzetti, Fausto},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.011},
isbn = {0012-8252},
issn = {00128252},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate variables,Hazard,Landslide,Modelling,Risk},
month = {nov},
pages = {227--252},
pmid = {27475051},
publisher = {Elsevier {\{}BV{\}}},
title = {{Landslides in a changing climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016{\%}2Fj.earscirev.2016.08.011},
volume = {162},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Garreaud2020a,
abstract = {Abstract Central Chile, home to more than 10 million inhabitants, has experienced an uninterrupted sequence of dry years since 2010 with mean rainfall deficits of 20?40{\%}. The so-called Mega Drought (MD) is the longest event on record and with few analogues in the last millennia. It encompasses a broad area, with detrimental effects on water availability, vegetation and forest fires that have scaled into social and economical impacts. Observations and reanalysis data reveal that the exceptional length of the MD results from the prevalence of a circulation dipole-hindering the passage of extratropical storms over central Chile?characterized by deep tropospheric anticyclonic anomalies over the subtropical Pacific and cyclonic anomalies over the Amundsen?Bellingshausen Sea. El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major modulator of such dipole, but the MD has occurred mostly under ENSO-neutral conditions, except for the winters of 2010 (La Ni{\~{n}}a) and 2015 (strong El Ni{\~{n}}o). Climate model simulations driven both with historical forcing (natural and anthropogenic) and observed global SST replicate the south Pacific dipole and capture part of the rainfall anomalies. Idealized numerical experiments suggest that most of the atmospheric anomalies emanate from the subtropical southwest Pacific, a region that has experienced a marked surface warming over the last decade. Such warming may excite atmospheric Rossby waves whose propagation intensifies the circulation pattern leading to dry conditions in central Chile. On the other hand, anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases concentration increase and stratospheric ozone depletion) and the associated positive trend of the Southern Annular Mode also contribute to the strength of the south Pacific dipole and hence to the intensity and longevity of the MD. Given the concomitance of the seemingly natural (ocean sourced) and anthropogenic forcing, we anticipate only a partial recovery of central Chile precipitation in the decades to come.},
author = {Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} D. and Boisier, Juan P. and Rondanelli, Roberto and Montecinos, Aldo and Sep{\'{u}}lveda, Hector H. and Veloso-Aguila, Daniel},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6219},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Chile,ENSO,PDO,SAM,South America,climate change,drought},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {421--439},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The Central Chile Mega Drought (2010–2018): A climate dynamics perspective}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6219},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Gasse:2000,
author = {Gasse, Fran{\c{c}}oise},
doi = {10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00061-X},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
month = {jan},
number = {1-5},
pages = {189--211},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Hydrological changes in the African tropics since the Last Glacial Maximum}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S027737919900061X},
volume = {19},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Gastineau2009,
abstract = {Sea surface temperature (SST) changes constitute a major indicator and driver of climate changes induced by greenhouse gas increases. The objective of the present study is to investigate the role played by the detailed structure of the SST change on the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the distribution of precipitation. For that purpose, simulations from the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL-CM4) are used where the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is doubled. The response of IPSL-CM4 is characterized by the same robust mechanisms affecting the other coupled models in global warming simulations, that is, an increase of the hydrological cycle accompanied by a global weakening of the large-scale circulation. First, purely atmospheric simulations are performed to mimic the results of the coupled model. Then, specific simulations are set up to further study the underlying atmospheric mechanisms. These simulations use different prescribed SST anomalies, which correspond to a linear decomposition of the IPSL-CM4 SST changes in global, longitudinal, and latitudinal components. The simulation using a globally uniform increase of the SST is able to reproduce the modifications in the intensity of the hydrological cycle or in the mean upward mass flux, which also characterize the double CO2 simulation with the coupled model. But it is necessary (and largely sufficient) to also take into account the zonal-mean meridional structure of the SST changes to represent correctly the changes in the Hadley circulation strength or the zonal-mean precipitation changes simulated by the coupled model, even if these meridional changes by themselves do not change the mean thermodynamical state of the tropical atmosphere. The longitudinal SST anomalies of IPSL-CM4 also have an impact on the precipitation and large-scale tropical circulation and tend to introduce different changes over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The longitudinal SST changes are demonstrated to have a smaller but opposite effect from that of the meridional anomalies on the Hadley cell circulations. Results indicate that the uncertainties in the simulated meridional patterns of the SST warming may have major consequences on the assessment of the changes of the Hadley circulation and zonal-mean precipitation in future climate projections.},
author = {Gastineau, Guillaume and Li, Laurent and {Le Treut}, Herv{\'{e}}},
doi = {10.1175/2009JCLI2794.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {1520-0442},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {3993--4013},
pmid = {43675665},
title = {{The Hadley and Walker Circulation Changes in Global Warming Conditions Described by Idealized Atmospheric Simulations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2009JCLI2794.1},
volume = {22},
year = {2009}
}
@book{ghwbbc14,
abstract = {Anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere have the potential to affect regional-scale land hydrology through solar dimming1, 2. Increased aerosol loading may have reduced historical surface evaporation over some locations3, but the magnitude and extent of this effect is uncertain. Any reduction in evaporation due to historical solar dimming may have resulted in an increase in river flow. Here we formally detect and quantify the historical effect of changing aerosol concentrations, via solar radiation, on observed river flow over the heavily industrialized, northern extra-tropics. We use a state-of-the-art estimate of twentieth century surface meteorology4 as input data for a detailed land surface model5, and show that the simulations capture the observed strong inter-annual variability in runoff in response to climatic fluctuations. Using statistical techniques, we identify a detectable aerosol signal in the observed river flow both over the combined region, and over individual river basins in Europe and North America. We estimate that solar dimming due to rising aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere around 1980 led to an increase in river runoff by up to 25{\%} in the most heavily polluted regions in Europe. We propose that, conversely, these regions may experience reduced freshwater availability in the future, as air quality improvements are set to lower aerosol loading and solar dimming.},
author = {Gedney, N. and Huntingford, C. and Weedon, G. P. and Bellouin, N. and Boucher, O. and Cox, P. M.},
booktitle = {Nature Geoscience},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2263},
issn = {17520908},
number = {11},
pages = {796--800},
publisher = {Nature Geoscience},
title = {{Detection of solar dimming and brightening effects on Northern Hemisphere river flow}},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Geil2013,
abstract = {Precipitation, geopotential height, and wind fields from 21 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are examined to determine how well this generation of general circulation models represents the North American monsoon system (NAMS). Results show no improvement since CMIP3 in the magnitude (root-mean-square error and bias) of the mean annual cycle of monthly precipitation over a core monsoon domain, but improvement in the phasing of the seasonal cycle in precipitation is notable. Monsoon onset is early for most models but is clearly visible in daily climatological precipitation, whereas monsoon retreat is highly variable and unclear in daily climatological precipitation. Models that best capture large-scale circulation patterns at a low level usually have realistic representations of the NAMS, but even the best models poorly represent monsoon retreat. Difficulty in reproducing monsoon retreat results from an inaccurate representation of gradients in low-level geopotential height across the larger region, which causes an unrealistic flux of low-level moisture from the tropics into the NAMS region that extends well into the postmonsoon season. Composites of the models with the best and worst representations of the NAMS indicate that adequate representation of the monsoon during the early to midseason can be achieved even with a large-scale circulation pattern bias, as long as the bias is spatially consistent over the larger region influencing monsoon development; in other words, as with monsoon retreat, it is the inaccuracy of the spatial gradients in geopotential height across the larger region that prevents some models from realistic representation of the early and midseason monsoon system.},
author = {Geil, Kerrie L. and Serra, Yolande L. and Zeng, Xubin},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00044.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {General circulation models,Model comparison,Model evaluation/performance,Monsoons,Rainfall,Seasonal cycle},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {8787--8801},
title = {{Assessment of CMIP5 Model Simulations of the North American Monsoon System}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00044.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Gentine2018,
abstract = {Representing unresolved moist convection in coarse-scale climate models remains one of the main bottlenecks of current climate simulations. Many of the biases present with parameterized convection are strongly reduced when convection is explicitly resolved (i.e., in cloud resolving models at high spatial resolution approximately a kilometer or so). We here present a novel approach to convective parameterization based on machine learning, using an aquaplanet with prescribed sea surface temperatures as a proof of concept. A deep neural network is trained with a superparameterized version of a climate model in which convection is resolved by thousands of embedded 2-D cloud resolving models. The machine learning representation of convection, which we call the Cloud Brain (CBRAIN), can skillfully predict many of the convective heating, moistening, and radiative features of superparameterization that are most important to climate simulation, although an unintended side effect is to reduce some of the superparameterization{\{}$\backslash$textquoteright{\}}s inherent variance. Since as few as three months{\{}$\backslash$textquoteright{\}} high-frequency global training data prove sufficient to provide this skill, the approach presented here opens up a new possibility for a future class of convection parameterizations in climate models that are built {\{}$\backslash$textquotedblleft{\}}top-down,{\{}$\backslash$textquotedblright{\}} that is, by learning salient features of convection from unusually explicit simulations. Plain Language Summary The representation of cloud radiative effects and the atmospheric heating and moistening due to moist convection remains a major challenge in current generation climate models, leading to a large spread in climate prediction. Here we show that neural networks trained on a high-resolution model in which moist convection is resolved can be an appealing technique to tackle and better represent moist convection in coarse resolution climate models.},
author = {Gentine, P. and Pritchard, M. and Rasp, S. and Reinaudi, G. and Yacalis, G.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078202},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {clouds,machine learning},
number = {11},
pages = {5742--5751},
title = {{Could Machine Learning Break the Convection Parameterization Deadlock?}},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gentine2019a,
abstract = {The terrestrial carbon and water cycles are strongly coupled. As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases, climate and the coupled hydrologic cycle are modified, thus altering the terrestrial water cycle and the availability of soil moisture necessary for plants' carbon dioxide uptake. Concomitantly, rising surface carbon dioxide concentrations also modify stomatal (small pores at the leaf surface) regulation as well as biomass, thus altering ecosystem photosynthesis and transpiration rates. Those coupled changes have profound implications for the predictions of the carbon and water cycles. This paper reviews the main mechanisms behind the coupling of the terrestrial water and carbon cycles. We especially focus on the key role of dryness (atmospheric dryness and terrestrial water availability) on carbon uptake, as well as the predicted impact of rising carbon dioxide on the water cycle. Challenges related to this coupling and the necessity to constrain it based on observations are finally discussed.},
author = {Gentine, Pierre and Green, Julia K. and Gu{\'{e}}rin, Marceau and Humphrey, Vincent and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Zhang, Yao and Zhou, Sha},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d6},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {CO2,fluxes,soil moisture,vapor pressure deficit,water cycle,water use efficiency},
number = {8},
pages = {83003},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Coupling between the terrestrial carbon and water cycles – A review}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d6},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Genty2006,
abstract = {The last deglaciation and its climatic events, such as the B{\o}lling-Aller{\o}d (BA) and the Younger-Dryas (YD), have been clearly recorded in the $\delta$13C profiles of three stalagmites from caves from Southern France to Northern Tunisia. The three $\delta$13C records, dated by thermal ionization mass spectrometric uranium-thorium method (TIMS), show great synchroneity and similarity in shape with the Chinese cave $\delta$18O records and with the marine tropical records, leading to the hypothesis of an in-phase (between 15.5 and 16 ka ∼±0.5 ka) postglacial warming in the Northern Hemisphere, up to at least 45°N. The BA transition appears more gradual in the speleothem records than in the Greenland records and the Aller{\o}d seems warmer than the B{\o}lling, showing here close similarities with other marine and continental archives. A North-South gradient is observed in the BA trend: it cools in Greenland and warms in our speleothem records. Several climatic events are clearly recognizable: a cooler period at about 14 ka (Older Dryas (OD)); the Intra-Aller{\o}d Cold Period at about ∼13.3 ka; the YD cooling onset between 12.7 and 12.9±0.3 ka. Similar to the BA, the YD displays a gradual climate amelioration just after its onset at 12.75±0.25 ka, up to the Preboreal, and is punctuated by a short climatic event at 12.15 ka. Even though the Southern Hemisphere stalagmite records seem to indicate that the postglacial warming started about ∼3 ka±1.8 ka earlier in New Zealand (∼41 °S), and about ∼1 to ∼2 ka earlier in South Africa (24.1 °S), large age uncertainties, essentially due to slow growth rates, make the comparison still perilous. The overall $\delta$13C speleothem record seems to follow a baseline temperature increase controlled by the increase in insolation and punctuated by cold events possibly due to the N-America freshwater lake discharges. {\textcopyright} 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
author = {Genty, D. and Blamart, D. and Ghaleb, B. and Plagnes, V. and Causse, Ch and Bakalowicz, M. and Zouari, K. and Chkir, N. and Hellstrom, J. and Wainer, K.},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.01.030},
isbn = {0277-3791},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
month = {sep},
number = {17-18},
pages = {2118--2142},
pmid = {620731861},
title = {{Timing and dynamics of the last deglaciation from European and North African $\delta$13C stalagmite profiles – comparison with Chinese and South Hemisphere stalagmites}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379106000849},
volume = {25},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Gergis2017,
author = {Gergis, Jo{\"{e}}lle and Henley, Benjamin J.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3191-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2087--2105},
title = {{Southern Hemisphere rainfall variability over the past 200 years}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3191-7},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gergis2012,
abstract = {This study presents the first multi-proxy reconstruction of rainfall variability from the mid-latitude region of south-eastern Australia (SEA). A skilful rainfall reconstruction for the 1783--1988 period was possible using twelve annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from the Australasian region. An innovative Monte Carlo calibration and verification technique is introduced to provide the robust uncertainty estimates needed for reliable climate reconstructions. Our ensemble median reconstruction captures 33{\%} of inter-annual and 72{\%} of decadal variations in instrumental SEA rainfall observations. We investigate the stability of regional SEA rainfall with large-scale circulation associated with El Ni{\~{n}}o--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) over the past 206 years. We find evidence for a robust relationship with high SEA rainfall, ENSO and the IPO over the 1840--1988 period. These relationships break down in the late 18th--early 19th century, coinciding with a known period of equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling during one of the most severe periods of the Little Ice Age. In comparison to a markedly wetter late 18th/early 19th century containing 75{\%} of sustained wet years, 70{\%} of all reconstructed sustained dry years in SEA occur during the 20th century. In the context of the rainfall estimates introduced here, there is a 97.1{\%} probability that the decadal rainfall anomaly recorded during the 1998--2008 `Big Dry' is the worst experienced since the first European settlement of Australia.},
author = {Gergis, Jo{\"{e}}lle and Gallant, Ailie Jane Eyre and Braganza, Karl and Karoly, David John and Allen, Kathryn and Cullen, Louise and D'Arrigo, Rosanne and Goodwin, Ian and Grierson, Pauline and McGregor, Shayne},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0263-x},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {apr},
number = {3-4},
pages = {923--944},
title = {{On the long-term context of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry' in South-Eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0263-x},
volume = {111},
year = {2012}
}
@article{gscgpdlcpkr19,
author = {Gershunov, Alexander and Shulgina, Tamara and Clemesha, Rachel E S and Guirguis, Kristen and Pierce, David W and Dettinger, Michael D and Lavers, David A and Cayan, Daniel R and Polade, Suraj D and Kalansky, Julie and Ralph, F Martin},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {9944},
publisher = {submitted},
title = {{Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-46169-w},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{gershunov2017assessing,
author = {Gershunov, Alexander and Shulgina, Tamara and Ralph, F Martin and Lavers, David A and Rutz, Jonathan J},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074175},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {7900--7908},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Assessing the climate‐scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074175},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Giannini2010,
abstract = {Application of the moist static energy framework to analyses of vertical stability and net energy in the Sahel sheds light on the divergence of projections of climate change. Two distinct mechanisms are sketched. In one, anthropogenic warming changes continental climate indirectly: warming of the oceans increases moist static energy at upper levels, affecting vertical stability globally, from the top down, and driving drying over the Sahel, in a way analogous to the impact of El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation on the global tropical atmosphere. In the other, the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases drives a direct continental change: the increase in net terrestrial radiation at the surface increases evaporation, favoring vertical instability and near-surface convergence from the bottom up.},
author = {Giannini, Alessandra},
doi = {10.1175/2009JCLI3123.1},
issn = {1520-0442},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {743--756},
title = {{Mechanisms of Climate Change in the Semiarid African Sahel: The Local View}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2009JCLI3123.1},
volume = {23},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Giannini2013,
author = {Giannini, A and Salack, S and Lodoun, T and Ali, A and Gaye, A T and Ndiaye, O},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024010},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {024010},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/8/i=2/a=024010?key=crossref.8e32479b8572024e0091ed9c684a33a6},
volume = {8},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Giannini2019a,
abstract = {We exploit the multi-model ensemble produced by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to synthesize current understanding of external forcing of Sahel rainfall change, past and future, through the lens of oceanic influence. The CMIP5 multi-model mean simulates the twentieth century evolution of Sahel rainfall, including the mid-century decline toward the driest years in the early 1980s and the partial recovery since. We exploit a physical argument linking anthropogenic emissions to the change in the temperature of the sub-tropical North Atlantic Ocean relative to the global tropical oceans to demonstrate indirect attribution of late twentieth century Sahel drought to the unique combination of aerosols and greenhouse gases that characterized the post-World War II period. The subsequent reduction in aerosol emissions around the North Atlantic that resulted from environmental legislation to curb acid rain, occurring as global tropical warming continued unabated, is consistent with the current partial recovery and with projections of future wetting. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) applied to the above-mentioned sea surface temperature (SST) indices provides a succinct description of oceanic influence on Sahel rainfall and reveals the near-orthogonality in the influence of emissions between twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the independent effects of aerosols and greenhouse gases project on the difference of SST indices and explain past variation, while the dominance of greenhouse gases projects on their sum and explains future projection. This result challenges the assumption that because anthropogenic warming had a hand in past Sahel drought, continued warming will result in further drying. In fact, the twenty-first century dominance of greenhouse gases, unchallenged by aerosols, results in projections consistent with warming-induced strengthening of the monsoon, a response that has gained in coherence in CMIP5 compared to prior multi-model exercises.},
author = {Giannini, Alessandra and Kaplan, Alexey},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2341-9},
isbn = {1058401823},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3-4},
pages = {449--466},
publisher = {Climatic Change},
title = {{The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery}},
volume = {152},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gimeno2020a,
abstract = {The precipitation that falls on the continents defines the extent and nature of terrestrial ecosystems and human activity in them, all of which are adapted to and maintained by present-day precipitation. In essence, precipitation is supplied by moisture that either comes directly from the ocean, or is subsequently recycled from the continents themselves. Both the processes that control evaporation and the main mechanisms of moisture transport clearly differ between the ocean and the continent, thus within the context of a changing climate, it may be expected that the relationship between precipitation of oceanic and terrestrial origin varies globally and regionally, as will the influence of these two basic components of total precipitation on global and regional precipitation trends, especially in tropical regions. We describe an approach based on a Lagrangian technique for estimating the precipitation in a target region given the proportions of moisture transported from the two sources (ocean and continent) to reveal that the percentage of precipitation of oceanic origin has increased globally in the current climate (1980–2016). The greatest observed rate of increase is in the tropical regions; furthermore, the trends of precipitation in these regions are controlled by trends in precipitation for which the source of moisture is the ocean.},
author = {Gimeno, Luis and Nieto, Raquel and Sor{\'{i}}, Rogert},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-020-00133-y},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
number = {1},
pages = {27},
title = {{The growing importance of oceanic moisture sources for continental precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00133-y},
volume = {3},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Gimeno2010,
abstract = {About 9 out of 10 liters of water evaporated from the oceans every year precipitates back onto oceans. However, the remaining 10{\%} that get transported to continents play an irreplaceable role feeding the land branch of the hydrological cycle. Here we use an objective 3-D Lagrangian model (FLEXPART) to detect major oceanic moisture source areas and the associated continental regions significantly influenced by each moisture source. Our results reveal a highly asymmetrical supply of oceanic moisture to the continents, with the Northern Atlantic subtropical ocean source impacting the continents considerably more than the large Southern Indian and North Pacific sources. Also, the small Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea basins are important moisture sources for relatively large land areas. The Indian subcontinent receives moisture from six different major oceanic source regions. Future changes in meteorological conditions over the oceanic moisture source regions may have an impact on water availability for many river basins.},
author = {Gimeno, Luis and Drumond, Anita and Nieto, Raquel and Trigo, Ricardo M and Stohl, Andreas},
doi = {10.1029/2010GL043712},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {L13804},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{On the origin of continental precipitation}},
volume = {37},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Gimeno2012,
author = {Gimeno, Luis and Stohl, Andreas and Trigo, Ricardo M and Dominguez, Francina and Yoshimura, Kei and Yu, Lisan and Drumond, Anita and Dur{\'{a}}n-Quesada, Ana Mar{\'{i}}a and Nieto, Raquel},
doi = {10.1029/2012RG000389},
issn = {8755-1209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
month = {nov},
number = {4},
pages = {RG4003},
title = {{Oceanic and terrestrial sources of continental precipitation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012RG000389},
volume = {50},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Ginoux2012,
abstract = {Our understanding of the global dust cycle is limited by a dearth of information about dust sources, especially small-scale features which could account for a large fraction of global emissions. Here we present a global-scale high-resolution (0.1{\textordmasculine}) mapping of sources based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue estimates of dust optical depth in conjunction with other data sets including land use. We ascribe dust sources to natural and anthropogenic (primarily agricultural) origins, calculate their respective contributions to emissions, and extensively compare these products against literature. Natural dust sources globally account for 75{\%} of emissions; anthropogenic sources account for 25{\%}. North Africa accounts for 55{\%} of global dust emissions with only 8{\%} being anthropogenic, mostly from the Sahel. Elsewhere, anthropogenic dust emissions can be much higher (75{\%} in Australia). Hydrologic dust sources (e.g., ephemeral water bodies) account for 31{\%} worldwide; 15{\%} of them are natural while 85{\%} are anthropogenic. Globally, 20{\%} of emissions are from vegetated surfaces, primarily desert shrublands and agricultural lands. Since anthropogenic dust sources are associated with land use and ephemeral water bodies, both in turn linked to the hydrological cycle, their emissions are affected by climate variability. Such changes in dust emissions can impact climate, air quality, and human health. Improved dust emission estimates will require a better mapping of threshold wind velocities, vegetation dynamics, and surface conditions (soil moisture and land use) especially in the sensitive regions identified here, as well as improved ability to address small-scale convective processes producing dust via cold pool (haboob) events frequent in monsoon regimes.},
author = {Ginoux, Paul and Prospero, Joseph M. and Gill, Thomas E. and Hsu, N. Christina and Zhao, Ming},
doi = {10.1029/2012RG000388},
issn = {87551209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {RG3005},
title = {{Global-scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012RG000388},
volume = {50},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Giorgi_2016,
abstract = {Global climate projections consistently indicate a future decrease in summer precipitation over the European Alps 1–3 . However, topography can substantially modulate precipita-tion change signals. For example, the shadowing eeect by topographic barriers can modify winter precipitation change patterns 4,5 , and orographic convection might also play an important role 6,7 . Here we analyse summer precipitation over the Alpine region in an ensemble of twenty-first-century projections with high-resolution (∼12 km) regional climate models 8,9 driven by recent global climate model simulations 10 . A broad-scale summer precipitation reduction is projected by both model ensembles. However, the regional models simulate an increase in precipitation over the high Alpine elevations that is not present in the global simulations. This is associated with increased convective rainfall due to enhanced potential instability by high-elevation surface heating and moistening. The robustness of this signal, which is found also for precipitation extremes, is supported by the consistency across models and future time slices, the identification of an underlying mechanism (enhanced convection), results from a convection-resolving simulation 11 , the statistical significance of the signal and the consistency with some observed trends. Our results challenge the picture of a ubiquitous decrease of summer precipitation over the Alps found in coarse-scale projections. The hypothesis that topography might locally modify precipitation change patterns is particularly relevant for the European Alps, whose complex physiography is well known to strongly affect local climate characteristics 12 . Regional climate models (RCMs) are especially suitable tools to explore this issue since they can reach high horizontal resolutions, of the order of 10 km or less 8,11 . In this regard, an unprecedented ensemble of high-resolution (grid spacing of ∼12 km, or 0.11 •) RCM projections over the Mediterranean and European regions (both encompassing the Alps) have been completed as part of the CORDEX programme (COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment, ref. 13), and specifically the EURO-CORDEX 8 and MED-CORDEX 9 initiatives. In addition, a high-resolution (5 km) gridded observation data set is available for model assessment over the Alpine region 14 . These products thus provide optimal resources to investigate the issue of the impact of complex topography on precipitation change signals. Specifically, we here focus on summer precipitation over the Alps, which constitutes an important water source for the region 12,15 , in particular due to summer convection. While most global climate models (GCMs) project a ubiquitous decrease in summer precipitation over the Alps in response to global warming 1–3 , this response can be substantially affected by topography. Such a modulation would in fact point to the added value of using high-resolution models in regional climate projections. As shown in a previous study 15 the EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX RCMs can reproduce well the observed fine-scale summer precipitation patterns over the Alps (for example, Supplementary Fig. 2), in particular improving the corresponding patterns in the driving GCMs. A number of studies demonstrated the added value of RCMs in reproducing different characteristics of topographically forced precipitation 9,15–17 . However, whether the added value in reproducing present-day climate also results into more credible projections is still an open issue 18 . Here we use an ensemble of projections with 6 RCMs at ∼12 km grid spacing driven by 4 different GCMs (Supplementary Table 1) and analyse three future twenty-first-century time slices (near term, 2010–2039; mid-century, 2040–2069; late century, 2070–2099) under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway 19 with respect to the present-day period 1975–2004 (see Methods). The domain of analysis encompasses the Alpine chain and surrounding areas (Supplementary Fig. 1), and is defined by the coverage area of the observation data set 14 . Figure 1 shows the ensemble mean of the percentage change in summer precipitation for the three twenty-first-century time slices in the driving GCM and the RCM ensembles. The GCMs produce a large-scale drying signal over the region, which grows in magnitude throughout the twenty-first century and extends to the entire Alpine region in the mid-and late century time slices (Fig. 1a–c). This precipitation reduction is in line with previous GCM-based projec-tions 1–3 , and it is associated with an increase in anticyclonic circula-tion over the Mediterranean and central European areas that locally enhances downward motions and deflects storms northward 2,3 . Contrary to the GCMs, the RCMs produce an area of increased summer precipitation along the Alpine chain embedded in the large-scale regional drying (Fig. 1d–f). This area covers most of the Alps in the near-term and mid-century time slices, while it is more limited to the highest peaks in the late century. This precipitation increase is qualitatively consistent with positive trends in precipitation ob-servations found across the Alps in the late twentieth century (Sup-plementary Fig. 3), when substantial warming occurred over the region 12 , and in parts of the Swiss Alps 20 , although these observed increases could in principle also be due to natural variability. Figure 1 also presents the ensemble average of what we call downscaling signal (DS, see Methods), which identifies the difference between RCM and GCM changes after the region-mean change values are filtered out, and it is therefore a direct measure of the local signal obtained via the RCM downscaling. Figure 1g–i shows that the summer precipitation change DS is positive along the Alpine chain and negative in the surrounding},
annote = {Enhanced summer convective rainfall at Alpine high elevations in response to climate warming},
author = {Giorgi, Filippo and Torma, Csaba and Coppola, Erika and Ban, Nikolina and Sch{\"{a}}r, Christoph and Somot, Samuel},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2761},
isbn = {1752-0908},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {RCM,section5},
month = {jul},
number = {8},
pages = {584--589},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Enhanced summer convective rainfall at Alpine high elevations in response to climate warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fngeo2761},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Giraldez2020,
abstract = {Changes of the onset dates, end dates, and duration of the rainy season over central Peruvian Andes (Mantaro river basin, MRB) could severely affect water resources management and the main economic activities (e.g., rainfed agriculture, raising cattle, among others). Nonetheless, these changes have not been documented for the Tropical Andes. To asses that, we used daily datasets of observed rainfall during the 1965-2013 period. For this period, the average onset (end) date of the rainy season over the MRB occurs in the pentad 17 (19-23 September) [pentad 57 (7-11 April)]. The duration of the rainy season mainly is modulated by the onset dates due to it has higher variability than end dates. There is a reduction of 3 days/decade in the duration of wet season over the MRB for the last four decades due to the delay of the onset days. Furthermore, El Nino favors late-onset and early end of the rainy season, while La Nina favors early onset and late end of the rainy season in the MRB. Onset dates are related to the propagation of the convective region of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), from the Caribbean region toward the central Amazon basin. Early (late)-onset days are associated with a southward (northward) shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and weak (strong) convection over equatorial Atlantic that induces the southernmost propagation (eastward shift) of the SAMS.},
author = {Gir{\'{a}}ldez, Lucy and Silva, Yamina and Zubieta, Ricardo and Sulca, Juan},
doi = {10.3390/cli8020023},
issn = {22251154},
journal = {Climate},
keywords = {Central Peruvian Andes,Mantaro river basin,Onset and end dates,Rainfall seasonality,Rainy season duration},
number = {2},
pages = {23},
title = {{Change of the rainfall seasonality over central peruvian andes: Onset, end, duration and its relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation}},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Giuntoli2013,
author = {Giuntoli, I. and Renard, B. and Vidal, J.-P. and Bard, A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.038},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {mar},
pages = {105--118},
title = {{Low flows in France and their relationship to large-scale climate indices}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169412011213},
volume = {482},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Giuntoli2018,
abstract = {Abstract Projections of runoff from global multi-model ensembles provide a valuable basis for the estimation of future hydrological extremes. However, projections suffer from uncertainty that originates from different error sources along the modeling chain. Hydrological impact studies have generally partitioned these error sources into global impact and global climate model (GIM and GCM, respectively) uncertainties, neglecting other sources, including scenarios and internal variability. Using a set of GIMs driven by GCMs under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), this study aims to partition the uncertainty of future flows coming from GIMs, GCMs, RCPs, and internal variability over the CONterminous United States (CONUS). We focus on annual maximum, median, and minimum runoff, analyzed decadally over the twenty-first century. Results indicate that GCMs and GIMs are responsible for the largest fraction of uncertainty over most of the study area, followed by internal variability and to a smaller extent RCPs. To investigate the influence of the ensemble setup on uncertainty, in addition to the full ensemble, three ensemble configurations are studied using fewer GIMs (excluding least credible GIMs in runoff representation and GIMs accounting for vegetation and CO2 dynamics), and excluding intermediate RCPs. Overall, the use of fewer GIMs has a minor impact on uncertainty for low and medium flows, but a substantial impact for high flows. Regardless of the number of pathways considered, RCPs always play a very small role, suggesting that improvement of GCMs and GIMs and more informed ensemble selections can yield a reduction of projected uncertainties.},
author = {Giuntoli, Ignazio and Villarini, Gabriele and Prudhomme, Christel and Hannah, David M.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2280-5},
isbn = {1058401822805},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3-4},
pages = {149--162},
publisher = {Climatic Change},
title = {{Uncertainties in projected runoff over the conterminous United States}},
volume = {150},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Giuntoli2015,
abstract = {Abstract. Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources.},
author = {Giuntoli, I. and Vidal, J.-P. and Prudhomme, C. and Hannah, D. M.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-6-267-2015},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {267--285},
title = {{Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models}},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Glas2019,
abstract = {To better understand the effects of climate change on streamflow, the hydrologic response to both temperature and precipitation needs to be examined at the mesoscale. New York State provides a hydrologically diverse mesoscale region, where sub-regional clusters of watersheds may respond differently to changes in temperature and in seasonal precipitation rates. Connections between streamflow and climate were examined for 97 gaging stations across the state and surrounding areas, for a historical period of 56 years of daily average streamflow. Gages were grouped into clusters if their mean annual discharge rates were strongly correlated to one another. Within each cluster, sharp temporal changes in discharge, or change points, were identified. These change points clustered both spatially and by flow regime, with low, medium, and high flows increasing around 1970 for much of the state consistent with other studies in the region. A step increase in Catskill low flows in 2003 coincides with increases in summer precipitation, and is consistent with a positive correlation between summer precipitation and annual low flows. Our results support previous studies that have shown that streamflow at this mesoscale is strongly tied to precipitation, and the strength of that connection is modulated by land cover, geographic position, and seasonal moisture conditions. Across the state, the winter-spring center of volume date has moved earlier along with increasing January streamflow rates, the result of warmer winter temperatures and an increased proportion of precipitation as rain. The transition to a post-1970s pluvial period also coincided with more frequent peak over threshold flows statewide, and this wetter period has continued to the present day.},
author = {Glas, Robin and Burns, Douglas and Lautz, Laura},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.060},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Change point analysis,Climate change,Mesoscale hydrology,Streamflow trends},
month = {jul},
pages = {308--323},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Historical changes in New York State streamflow: Attribution of temporal shifts and spatial patterns from 1961 to 2016}},
volume = {574},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gloor2015,
abstract = {Recent analyses of Amazon runoff and gridded precipitation data suggest an intensification of the hydrological cycle over the past few decades in the following sense: wet season precipitation and peak river runoff (since ∼1980) as well as annual mean precipitation (since ∼1990) have increased, while dry season precipitation and minimum runoff have slightly decreased. There has also been an increase in the frequency of anomalously severe floods and droughts. To provide context for the special issue on Amazonia and its forests in a warming climate we expand here on these analyses. The contrasting recent changes in wet and dry season precipitation have continued and are generally consistent with changes in catchment-level peak and minimum river runoff as well as a positive trend of water vapor inflow into the basin. Consistent with the river records, the increased vapor inflow is concentrated to the wet season. Temperature has been rising by 0.7°C since 1980 with more pronounced warming during dry months. Suggestions for the cause of the observed changes of the hydrological cycle come from patterns in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Tropical and North Atlantic SSTs have increased rapidly and steadily since 1990, while Pacific SSTs have shifted during the 1990s from a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase with warm eastern Pacific temperatures to a negative phase with cold eastern Pacific temperatures. These SST conditions have been shown to be associated with an increase in precipitation over most of the Amazon except the south and southwest. If ongoing changes continue, we expect forests to continue to thrive in those regions where there is an increase in precipitation with the exception of floodplain forests. An increase in flood pulse height and duration could lead to increased mortality at higher levels of the floodplain and, over the long term, to a lateral shift of the zonally stratified floodplain forest communities. Negative effects on forests are mainly expected in the southwest and south, which have become slightly drier and hotter, consistent with tree mortality trends observed at the RAINFOR Amazon forest plot network established in the early 1980s consisting of approximately 150 regularly censused 1ha plots in intact forests located across the whole basin.},
author = {Gloor, M. and Barichivich, J. and Ziv, G. and Brienen, R. and Sch{\"{o}}ngart, J. and Peylin, P. and {Ladvocat Cintra}, B. Barcante and Feldpausch, T. and Phillips, O. and Baker, J. and {B. Barcante Ladvocat Cintra3, T. Feldpausch4, O. Phillips1}, and J. Baker and {Ladvocat Cintra}, B. Barcante and Feldpausch, T. and Phillips, O. and Baker, J.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GB005080},
issn = {19449224},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
keywords = {Amazon basin,climate,humid forests},
number = {9},
pages = {1384--1399},
title = {{Recent Amazon climate as background for possible ongoing and future changes of Amazon humid forests}},
volume = {29},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Gomes2019,
abstract = {Deforestation is currently the major threat to Amazonian tree species but climate change may surpass it in just a few decades. Here, we show that climate and deforestation combined could cause a decline of up to 58{\%} in Amazon tree species richness, whilst deforestation alone may cause 19–36{\%} and climate change 31–37{\%} by 2050. Quantification is achieved by overlaying species distribution models for current and future climate change scenarios with historical and projected deforestation. Species may lose an average of 65{\%} of their original environmentally suitable area, and a total of 53{\%} may be threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria; however, Amazonian protected area networks reduce these impacts. The worst-case combined scenario—assuming no substantial climate or deforestation policy progress—suggests that by 2050 the Amazonian lowland rainforest may be cut into two blocks: one continuous block with 53{\%} of the original area and another severely fragmented block. This outlook urges rapid progress to zero deforestation, which would help to mitigate climate change and foster biodiversity conservation.},
author = {Gomes, Vitor H. F. and Vieira, Ima C. G. and Salom{\~{a}}o, Rafael P. and ter Steege, Hans},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0500-2},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {547--553},
title = {{Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0500-2},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gonzales2019JGR,
abstract = {Atmospheric rivers (ARs) often generate extreme precipitation, with AR temperature strongly influencing hydrologic impacts by altering the timing and magnitude of runoff. Long‐term changes in AR temperatures therefore have important implications for regional hydroclimate—especially in locations where a shift to more rain‐dominated AR precipitation could affect flood risk and/or water storage in snowpack. In this study, we provide the first climatology of AR temperature across five US West Coast sub‐regions. We then assess trends in landfalling AR temperatures for each sub‐region from 1980 to 2016 using three reanalysis products. We find AR warming at seasonal and monthly scales. Cool‐season warming ranges from 0.69°C to 1.65°C over the study period. We detect monthly‐scale warming of {\textgreater}2°C, with the most widespread warming occurring in November and March. To understand the causes of AR warming, we quantify the density of AR tracks from genesis to landfall, and analyze along‐track AR temperature for each month and landfall region. We investigate three possible influences on AR temperature trends at landfall: along‐track temperatures prior to landfall, background temperatures over the landfall region, and AR temperature over the coastal ocean adjacent to the region of landfall. Generally, AR temperatures at landfall more closely match coastal and background temperature trends than along‐track AR temperature trends. The seasonal asymmetry of the AR warming and the heterogeneity of influences have important implications for regional water storage and flood risk—demonstrating that changes in AR characteristics are complex, and may not be directly inferred from changes in the background climate.},
author = {Gonzales, Katerina R. and Swain, Daniel L. and Nardi, Kyle M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD029860},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Western United States,rain versus snow,rain vs. snow,regional climate change},
month = {may},
number = {13},
pages = {2018JD029860},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Recent warming of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the west coast of the United States}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD029860},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gonzalez2014a,
abstract = {On a hemispheric scale, it is now well estab- lished that stratospheric ozone depletion has been the principal driver of externally forced atmospheric circula- tion changes south of the Equator in the last decades of the 20th Century. The impact of ozone depletion has been felt over the entire hemisphere, as reflected in the poleward drift of the midlatitude jet, the southward expansion of the summertime Hadley cell and accompanying precipitation trends deep into the subtropics. On a regional scale, how- ever, surface impacts directly attributable to ozone deple- tion have yet to be identified. In this paper we focus on South Eastern South America (SESA), a region that has exhibited one of the largest wetting trends during the 20th Century. We study the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation using output from 6 different climate models, spanning a wide range of complexity. In all cases we contrast pairs of model integrations with and without ozone depletion, but with all other forcings identically specified. This allows for unambiguous attribution of the computed precipitation trends. All 6 climate models consistently reveal that stratospheric ozone depletion results in a sig- nificant wetting of SESA over the period 1960–1999. Taken as a whole, these model results strongly suggest that the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation has been as large as, and quite possibly larger than, the one caused by increasing greenhouse gases over the same period. Keywords},
author = {Gonzalez, Paula L M and Polvani, Lorenzo M. and Seager, Richard and Correa, Gustavo J P},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1777-x},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {7-8},
pages = {1775--1792},
title = {{Stratospheric ozone depletion: A key driver of recent precipitation trends in South Eastern South America}},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Good2016,
abstract = {For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.},
author = {Good, Peter and Booth, Ben B. B. and Chadwick, Robin and Hawkins, Ed and Jonko, Alexandra and Lowe, Jason A.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms13667},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {13667},
title = {{Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13667},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Good2016a,
abstract = {Abstract. nonlinMIP provides experiments that account for state-dependent regional and global climate responses. The experiments have two main applications: (1) to focus understanding of responses to CO2 forcing on states relevant to specific policy or scientific questions (e.g. change under low-forcing scenarios, the benefits of mitigation, or from past cold climates to the present day), or (2) to understand the state dependence (non-linearity) of climate change – i.e. why doubling the forcing may not double the response. State dependence (non-linearity) of responses can be large at regional scales, with important implications for understanding mechanisms and for general circulation model (GCM) emulation techniques (e.g. energy balance models and pattern-scaling methods). However, these processes are hard to explore using traditional experiments, which explains why they have had so little attention in previous studies. Some single model studies have established novel analysis principles and some physical mechanisms. There is now a need to explore robustness and uncertainty in such mechanisms across a range of models (point 2 above), and, more broadly, to focus work on understanding the response to CO2 on climate states relevant to specific policy/science questions (point 1). nonlinMIP addresses this using a simple, small set of CO2-forced experiments that are able to separate linear and non-linear mechanisms cleanly, with a good signal-to-noise ratio – while being demonstrably traceable to realistic transient scenarios. The design builds on the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) protocols, and is centred around a suite of instantaneous atmospheric CO2 change experiments, with a ramp-up–ramp-down experiment to test traceability to gradual forcing scenarios. In all cases the models are intended to be used with CO2 concentrations rather than CO2 emissions as the input. The understanding gained will help interpret the spread in policy-relevant scenario projections. Here we outline the basic physical principles behind nonlinMIP, and the method of establishing traceability from abruptCO2 to gradual forcing experiments, before detailing the experimental design, and finally some analysis principles. The test of traceability from abruptCO2 to transient experiments is recommended as a standard analysis within the CMIP5 and CMIP6 DECK protocols.},
author = {Good, Peter and Andrews, Timothy and Chadwick, Robin and Dufresne, Jean-Louis and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Lowe, Jason A. and Schaller, Nathalie and Shiogama, Hideo},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-4019-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {4019--4028},
title = {{nonlinMIP contribution to CMIP6: model intercomparison project for non-linear mechanisms: physical basis, experimental design and analysis principles (v1.0)}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/4019/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Good2020,
abstract = {Precipitation and atmospheric circulation are the coupled processes through which tropical ocean surface temperatures drive global weather and climate1–5. Local ocean surface warming tends to increase precipitation, but this local control is hard to disentangle from remote effects of conditions elsewhere. Such remote effects occur, for example, from El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the equatorial Pacific, which alter precipitation across the tropics. Atmospheric circulations associated with tropical precipitation are predominantly deep, extending up to the tropopause. Shallow atmospheric circulations6–8 impacting the lower troposphere also occur, but the importance of their interaction with precipitation is unclear. Uncertainty in precipitation observations9,10 and limited observations of shallow circulations11 further obstruct understanding of the ocean's influence on weather and climate. Despite decades of research, persistent biases remain in many numerical model simulations12–18, including excessively wide tropical rainbands14,18, the ‘double-intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) problem'12,16,17 and too-weak responses to ENSO15. These demonstrate stubborn gaps in our understanding, reducing confidence in forecasts and projections. Here we show that the real world has a high sensitivity of seasonal tropical precipitation to local sea-surface temperature. Our best observational estimate is 80{\%} precipitation change per g/kg change in the saturation specific humidity (itself a function of the ocean surface temperature). This observed sensitivity is higher than in 43 of the 47 climate models studied, and is associated with strong shallow circulations. Models with more realistic sensitivity have smaller biases across a wide range of metrics. Our results apply to both temporal and spatial variation, over regions where climatological precipitation is around 1 millimetre per day or greater. Novel analysis of multiple independent observations, physical constraints and model data, underpin these findings. The spread in model behaviour is further linked to differences in shallow convection, providing a focus for accelerated research, to improve seasonal forecasts through multidecadal climate projections.},
author = {Good, Peter and Chadwick, Robin and Holloway, Christopher E. and Kennedy, John and Lowe, Jason A. and Roehrig, Romain and Rushley, Stephanie S.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2887-3},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Article},
month = {jan},
number = {7842},
pages = {408--414},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{High sensitivity of tropical precipitation to local sea surface temperature}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2887-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2887-3},
volume = {589},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Good2015,
abstract = {When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. 1). There is a need to narrow uncertainty2 in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow—especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.},
author = {Good, Peter and Lowe, Jason A. and Andrews, Timothy and Wiltshire, Andrew and Chadwick, Robin and Ridley, Jeff K. and Menary, Matthew B. and Bouttes, Nathaelle and Dufresne, Jean Louis and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Schaller, Nathalie and Shiogama, Hideo},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2498},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {2},
pages = {138--142},
title = {{Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations}},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Goren2014,
abstract = {A method for separating the three components of the marine stratocumulus (MSC) aerosol cloud interactions radiative effects, i.e., the cloud cover, liquid water path (LWP) and cloud drop radius (Twomey), was developed and tested. It is based on the assumption that changes in MSC cloud regimes that occur at short distance in homogeneous meteorological conditions are related to respective changes in the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The method was applied to 50 cases of well defined transitions from closed to open cells. It was found that the negative cloud radiative effect (CRE) over the closed cells is on average higher by 109±18Wm−2 than that over the adjacent open cells. This large negative CRE is composed of the cloud cover (42±8{\%}), LWP (32±8{\%}) and Twomey (26±6{\%}) effects. This shows that the Twomey effect, which is caused by change in droplet concentration for a given LWP, contributes only a quarter of the difference in CRE, whereas the rest is contributed by added cloud water to the open cells both in the horizontal (cloud cover effect) and in the vertical (LWP effect) dimensions. The results suggest the possibility that anthropogenic aerosols that affect MSC-regime-changes might incur large negative radiative forcing on the global scale, mainly due to the cloud cover effect.},
author = {Goren, Tom and Rosenfeld, Daniel},
doi = {10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2013.12.008},
issn = {0169-8095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
month = {mar},
pages = {378--393},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Decomposing aerosol cloud radiative effects into cloud cover, liquid water path and Twomey components in marine stratocumulus}},
volume = {138},
year = {2014}
}
@article{g14,
abstract = {Recent, heavy snow accumulation events over Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica, contributed significantly to the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB). Here we combine in situ accumulation measurements and radar-derived snowfall rates from Princess Elisabeth station (PE), located in the DML escarpment zone, along with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis to investigate moisture transport patterns responsible for these events. In particular, two high-accumulation events in May 2009 and February 2011 showed an atmospheric river (AR) signature with enhanced integrated water vapor (IWV), concentrated in narrow long bands stretching from subtropical latitudes to the East Antarctic coast. Adapting IWV-based AR threshold criteria for Antarctica (by accounting for the much colder and drier environment), we find that it was four and five ARs reaching the coastal DML that contributed 74-80{\%} of the outstanding SMB during 2009 and 2011 at PE. Therefore, accounting for ARs is crucial for understanding East Antarctic SMB.},
author = {Gorodetskaya, Irina V. and Tsukernik, Maria and Claes, Kim and Ralph, Martin F. and Neff, William D. and {Van Lipzig}, Nicole P. M.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL060881},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6199--6206},
title = {{The role of atmospheric rivers in anomalous snow accumulation in East Antarctica}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL060881},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Gosling2016,
abstract = {This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2 °C, followed by stabilisation to 4 °C.},
author = {Gosling, Simon N. and Arnell, Nigel W.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x},
isbn = {0165-0009$\backslash$r1573-1480},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {371--385},
pmid = {15657820},
title = {{A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity}},
volume = {134},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Goswami2017,
abstract = {An outstanding problem of climate models is the persistent dry bias in simulating precipitation over the south Asian summer monsoon region. Guided by observations, it is hypothesized that the dry-bias in simulating precipitation by the models is related to underestimation of high pass variance by most models. An analysis of the simulated mean and variance in precipitation by 36 coupled models show that the dry bias in simulating the mean precipitation by the models is indeed proportional to the underestimation of the variance. Models also indicate that the underestimation of the high-pass variance arise due to the underestimation of the intense rainfall events by models. Further, it is found that the higher resolution models simulate increasingly reduced dry bias by simulating high-frequency variance better through better simulation probability of intense rainfall events. The robustness of our findings over different regions and during both boreal summer and winter seasons indicates the universality of the hypothesis.},
author = {Goswami, Bidyut N Bikash and Goswami, Bidyut N Bikash},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3439-2},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {5},
pages = {2025--2034},
title = {{A road map for improving dry-bias in simulating the South Asian monsoon precipitation by climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3439-2},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{grafton2018paradox,
author = {Grafton, R Q and Williams, J and Perry, C J and Molle, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Ringler, C and Steduto, P and Udall, B and Wheeler, S A and Wang, Y and Garrick, D and Allen, R. G.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aat9314},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {6404},
pages = {748--750},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{The paradox of irrigation efficiency}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aat9314},
volume = {361},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Grandey2016,
author = {Grandey, Benjamin S. and Cheng, Haiwen and Wang, Chien},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0555.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2849--2867},
title = {{Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0555.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Grell2014,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Abstract. A convective parameterization is described and evaluated that may be used in high resolution non-hydrostatic mesoscale models as well as in modeling system with unstructured varying grid resolutions and for convection aware simulations. This scheme is based on a stochastic approach originally implemented by Grell and Devenyi (2002). Two approaches are tested on resolutions ranging from 20 km to 5 km. One approach is based on spreading subsidence to neighboring grid points, the other one on a recently introduced method by Arakawa et al. (2011). Results from model intercomparisons, as well as verification with observations indicate that both the spreading of the subsidence and Arakawa's approach work well for the highest resolution runs. Because of its simplicity and its capability for an automatic smooth transition as the resolution is increased, Arakawa's approach may be preferred. Additionally, interactions with aerosols have been implemented through a cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) dependent autoconversion of cloud water to rain as well as an aerosol dependent evaporation of cloud drops. Initial tests with this newly implemented aerosol approach show plausible results with a decrease in predicted precipitation in some areas, caused by the changed autoconversion mechanism. This change also causes a significant increase of cloud water and ice detrainment near the cloud tops. Some areas also experience an increase of precipitation, most likely caused by strengthened downdrafts.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Grell, G. A. and Freitas, S. R.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-14-5233-2014},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5233--5250},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling}},
volume = {14},
year = {2014}
}
@article{ggsfm09,
author = {Gremaud, Vivian and Goldscheider, Nico and Savoy, Ludovic and Favre, G{\'{e}}rald and Masson, Henri},
doi = {10.1007/s10040-009-0485-4},
issn = {1431-2174},
journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
month = {dec},
number = {8},
pages = {1833--1848},
title = {{Geological structure, recharge processes and underground drainage of a glacierised karst aquifer system, Tsanfleuron-Sanetsch, Swiss Alps}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10040-009-0485-4},
volume = {17},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Greve2015,
author = {Greve, P and Seneviratne, S I},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064127},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {10.1002/2015GL064127 and climate change,CMIP5,dry gets drier,water availability,wet gets wetter},
pages = {5493--5499},
title = {{Assessment of future changes in water availability and aridity}},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Greve2019,
abstract = {Aridity is a complex concept that ideally requires a comprehensive assessment of hydroclimatological and hydroecological variables to fully understand anticipated changes. A widely used (offline) impact model to assess projected changes in aridity is the aridity index (AI) (defined as the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation), summarizing the aridity concept into a single number. Based on the AI, it was shown that aridity will generally increase under conditions of increased CO2 and associated global warming. However, assessing the same climate model output directly suggests a more nuanced response of aridity to global warming, raising the question if the AI provides a good representation of the complex nature of anticipated aridity changes. By systematically comparing projections of the AI against projections for various hydroclimatological and ecohydrological variables, we show that the AI generally provides a rather poor proxy for projected aridity conditions. Direct climate model output is shown to contradict signals of increasing aridity obtained from the AI in at least half of the global land area with robust change. We further show that part of this discrepancy can be related to the parameterization of potential evaporation. Especially the most commonly used potential evaporation model likely leads to an overestimation of future aridity due to incorrect assumptions under increasing atmospheric CO2. Our results show that AI-based approaches do not correctly communicate changes projected by the fully coupled climate models. The solution is to directly analyse the model outputs rather than use a separate offline impact model. We thus urge for a direct and joint assessment of climate model output when assessing future aridity changes rather than using simple index-based impact models that use climate model output as input and are potentially subject to significant biases.},
author = {Greve, Peter and Roderick, Michael and Ukkola, Anna M and Wada, Yoshihide},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab5046},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {12},
pages = {124006},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{The Aridity Index under global warming}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5046},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{esd-9-227-2018,
abstract = {Abstract. Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2K or (ii) 1.5K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability. ]]{\textgreater}},
author = {Greve, Peter and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-227-2018},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {227--240},
title = {{Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/227/2018/},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Greve2014,
abstract = {Changes in the hydrological conditions of the land surface have substantial impacts on society. Yet assessments of observed continental dryness trends yield contradicting results. The concept that dry regions dry out further, whereas wet regions become wetter as the climate warms has been proposed as a simplified summary of expected as well as observed changes over land, although this concept is mostly based on oceanic data. Here we present an analysis of more than 300 combinations of various hydrological data sets of historical land dryness changes covering the period from 1948 to 2005. Each combination of data sets is benchmarked against an empirical relationship between evaporation, precipitation and aridity. Those combinations that perform well are used for trend analysis. We find that over about three-quarters of the global land area, robust dryness changes cannot be detected. Only 10.8{\%} of the global land area shows a robust ‘dry gets drier, wet gets wetter' pattern, compared to 9.5{\%} of global land area with the opposite pattern, that is, dry gets wetter, and wet gets drier. We conclude that aridity changes over land, where the potential for direct socio-economic consequences is highest, have not followed a simple intensification of existing patterns.},
author = {Greve, Peter and Orlowsky, Boris and Mueller, Brigitte and Sheffield, Justin and Reichstein, Markus and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.1038/NGEO2247},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
language = {en},
month = {sep},
number = {10},
pages = {716--721},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2247},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{glrrs18,
abstract = {Extra-tropical cyclones in the subantarctic play a central role in the poleward transport of heat and moisture into Antarctica, with the latter being a key component of the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. As the climate in this region undergoes substantial changes, it is anticipated that the character of these synoptic features will change. There are a number of different methods used to identify and track cyclones, which can potentially lead to different conclusions as to cyclone variability and trends, and mechanisms which drive these features. Given this, it is timely to assess the level of consensus among 14 state-of-the-art cyclone identification and tracking methods. We undertake this comparison with the ERA-Interim data-set for the period 1979–2008 and find large differences in the number of tracks identified by different methods, but the spatial patterns of the system density broadly agree. Links between large-scale modes of variability, such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and subantarctic cyclones as suggested in the literature are confirmed by our analysis. Trends in the number of cyclone tracks show a more diverse picture. Robust trends are identified by almost all methods for austral summer over the region south to 60°S, mainly due to the strong relation to SAM, whereas in austral winter the methods disagree in the statistical significance of the trends. The agreement among the methods is greater when the comparison is confined to the stronger cyclones. This is confirmed by a moisture flux analysis associated with these strong synoptic systems. Our results indicate that multiple cyclone identification and tracking methods should be used to obtain robust conclusions for trends in cyclone characteristics as well as their relation to the large-scale circulation in the subantarctic region.},
author = {Grieger, Jens and Leckebusch, Gregor C. and Raible, Christoph C. and Rudeva, Irina and Simmonds, Ian},
doi = {10.1080/16000870.2018.1454808},
issn = {16000870},
journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
keywords = {Antarctica,IMILAST,Southern Ocean,cyclone identification,extra-tropical cyclones},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--18},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis Ltd.},
title = {{Subantarctic cyclones identified by 14 tracking methods, and their role for moisture transports into the continent}},
volume = {70},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Griffin2014,
abstract = {For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium. We demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years. Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability. The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures. Citation:},
author = {Griffin, Daniel and Anchukaitis, Kevin J.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL062433},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {drought,paleoclimate,tree rings},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {9017--9023},
title = {{How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL062433},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Grimm2006,
abstract = {Analyses of pollen and plant macrofossils from a new core spanning the past 60,000 years from Lake Tulane, Florida show a strong antiphase relationship in temperature between Florida and the North Atlantic region. During the Pleistocene, oak-scrub and prairie phases were coeval with long, intense Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadials (warm periods) that initiated Bond cycles. Pine phases were coeval with the North Atlantic long stadials (cold periods) that ended Bond cycles and were terminated by Heinrich events. Lake levels were higher during pine phases, and climate was wetter. However, climate in Florida was also warmer during these phases, which were cold periods in the North Atlantic. Perhaps diminution of thermohaline circulation before and during Heinrich events reduced northward heat transport and retained warmth in the subtropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. {\textcopyright} 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
author = {Grimm, Eric C. and Watts, William A. and {Jacobson Jr.}, George L. and Hansen, Barbara C.S. and Almquist, Heather R. and Dieffenbacher-Krall, Ann C.},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.04.008},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
month = {sep},
number = {17-18},
pages = {2197--2211},
title = {{Evidence for warm wet Heinrich events in Florida}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S027737910600165X},
volume = {25},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Grise2020,
abstract = {In response to increasing greenhouse gases, the subtropical edges of Earth's Hadley circulation shift poleward in global climate models. Recent studies have found that reanalysis trends in the Hadley cell edge over the past 30-40 years are within the range of trends simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and have documented seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in these trends. In this study, we evaluate whether these conclusions hold for the newest generation of models (CMIP6). Overall, we find similar characteristics of Hadley cell expansion in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. In both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edge in response to increasing greenhouse gases is 2-3 times larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), except during September-November. The trends from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models agree well with reanalyses, although prescribing observed coupled atmosphere-ocean variability allows the models to better capture reanalysis trends in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). We find two notable differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. First, while both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models contract the NH summertime Hadley circulation equatorward (particularly over the Pacific sector), this contraction is larger in CMIP6 models due to their higher average climate sensitivity. Second, in recent decades, the poleward shift of the NH annual-mean Hadley cell edge is slightly larger in CMIP6 models. Increasing greenhouse gases drive similar trends in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, so the larger recent NH trends in CMIP6 models point to the role of other forcings, such as aerosols.},
author = {Grise, Kevin M. and Davis, Sean M.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-20-5249-2020},
issn = {16807324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {5249--5268},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{Hadley cell expansion in CMIP6 models}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/5249/2020/ https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/5249/2020/acp-20-5249-2020.pdf},
volume = {20},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Grise2016a,
abstract = {The atmospheric response to increasing CO2 concentrations is often described in terms of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Yet the response to CO2 forcing in global climate models is not limited to an increase in global-mean surface temperature: for example, the midlatitude jets shift poleward, the Hadley circulation expands, and the subtropical dry zones are altered. These changes, which are referred to here as “dynamical sensitivity," may be more important in practice than the global-mean surface temperature. This study examines to what degree the intermodel spread in the dynamical sensitivity of 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models is captured by ECS. In the Southern Hemisphere, intermodel differences in the value of ECS explain {\~{}}60{\%} of the intermodel variance in the annual-mean Hadley cell expansion but just {\~{}}20{\%} of the variance in the annual-mean midlatitude jet response. In the Northern Hemisphere, models with larger values of ECS significantly expand the Hadley circulation more during winter months but contract the Hadley circulation more during summer months. Intermodel differences in ECS provide little significant information about the behavior of the Northern Hemisphere subtropical dry zones or midlatitude jets. The components of dynamical sensitivity correlated with ECS appear to be driven largely by increasing sea surface temperatures, whereas the components of dynamical sensitivity independent of ECS are related in part to changes in surface temperature gradients. These results suggest that efforts to narrow the spread in dynamical sensitivity across global climate models must also consider factors that are independent of global-mean surface temperature.},
author = {Grise, Kevin M. and Polvani, Lorenzo M.},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD024687},
issn = {21562202},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {atmospheric circulation,climate change,climate sensitivity},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5159--5176},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024687},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Grise2019a,
abstract = {Previous studies have documented a poleward shift in the subsiding branches of Earth's Hadley circulation since 1979 but have disagreed on the causes of these observed changes and the ability of global climate models to capture them. This synthesis paper reexamines a number of contradictory claims in the past literature and finds that the tropical expansion indicated by modern reanalyses is within the bounds of models' historical simulations for the period 1979–2005. Earlier conclusions that models were underestimating the observed trends relied on defining the Hadley circulation using the mass streamfunction from older reanalyses. The recent observed tropical expansion has similar magnitudes in the annual mean in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), but models suggest that the factors driving the expansion differ be- tween the hemispheres. In the SH, increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to tropical expansion over the late twentieth century, and if GHGs continue increasing, the SH tropical edge is projected to shift further poleward over the twenty-first century, even as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover. In the NH, the contribution of GHGs to tropical expansion is much smaller and will remain difficult to detect in a background of large natural variability, even by the end of the twenty-first century. To explain similar recent tropical expansion rates in the two hemispheres, natural variability must be taken into account. Recent coupled atmosphere–ocean variability, including the Pacific decadal oscillation, has contributed to tropical expansion. However, in models forced with observed sea surface temperatures, tropical expansion rates still vary widely because of internal atmospheric variability.},
author = {Grise, Kevin M. and Davis, Sean M. and Simpson, Isla R. and Waugh, Darryn W. and Fu, Qiang and Allen, Robert J. and Rosenlof, Karen H. and Ummenhofer, Caroline C. and Karnauskas, Kristopher B. and Maycock, Amanda C. and Quan, Xiao-Wei and Birner, Thomas and Staten, Paul W.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0444.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {1551--1571},
title = {{Recent Tropical Expansion: Natural Variability or Forced Response?}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0444.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Grise2014,
abstract = {This study explores the impact of Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion on extratropical cyclones. Output from the Community Atmosphere Model is combined with a Lagrangian cyclone-tracking algorithm to identify the response of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones to ozone and greenhouse gas forcings over the period 1960–2000. Stratospheric ozone depletion induces a significant poleward shift in cyclone frequency over the Southern Ocean, but has minimal influence on cyclone intensity and lifetime. The response of the cyclones to late 20th century greenhouse gas increases has similar characteristics, but falls within the range of natural variability in the model.},
author = {Grise, Kevin M. and Son, Seok Woo and Correa, Gustavo J.P. P and Polvani, Lorenzo M.},
doi = {10.1002/asl2.458},
isbn = {1530-261X},
issn = {1530261X},
journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
keywords = {Extratropical cyclones,Southern Hemisphere,Stratospheric ozone},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {29--36},
title = {{The response of extratropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere to stratospheric ozone depletion in the 20th century}},
volume = {15},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Grogan2020,
abstract = {The vernal window, or the winter-to-spring transition, is a key period for seasonally snow-covered, forested ecosystems. The events that open and close the vernal window shape the unique characteristics of spring hydrology that, in turn, influence both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem processes. Few studies have examined how climate change will alter the vernal window and thereby impact basic hydrology during this transitional period. We project that over the 21st century the vernal window will lengthen by +15 to +28 d in northeastern North America. Loss of snow cover under a high climate forcing scenario eliminates the vernal window across 59{\%} of the study domain, removing snow's influence on spring runoff in those areas. Spring runoff timing where the vernal window lengthens but does not disappear becomes similar to the southern, snow-free region where precipitation drives winter runoff, indicating a fundamental change in the hydrologic character of northeastern forests.},
annote = {Increase in length of snowmelt season with warming},
author = {Grogan, D S and Burakowski, E A and Contosta, A R},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abbd00},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {11},
pages = {114040},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Snowmelt control on spring hydrology declines as the vernal window lengthens}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbd00},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Grose2017a,
abstract = {Atmospheric circulation change is likely to be the dominant driver of multidecadal rainfall trends in the midlatitudes with climate change this century. This study examines circulation features relevant to southern Australian rainfall in January and July and explores emergent constraints suggested by the intermodel spread and their impact on the resulting rainfall projection in the CMIP5 ensemble. The authors find relationships between models' bias and projected change for four features in July, each with suggestions for constraining forced change. The features are the strength of the subtropical jet over Australia, the frequency of blocked days in eastern Australia, the longitude of the peak blocking frequency east of Australia, and the latitude of the storm track within the polar front branch of the split jet. Rejecting models where the bias suggests either the direction or magnitude of change in the features is implausible produces a constraint on the projected rainfall reduction for southern Australia. For RCP8.5 by the end of the century the constrained projections are for a reduction of at least 5{\%} in July (with models showing increase or little change being rejected). Rejecting these models in the January projections, with the assumption the bias affects the entire simulation, leads to a rejection of wet and dry outliers.},
author = {Grose, Michael R. and Risbey, James S. and Moise, Aurel F. and Osbrough, Stacey and Heady, Craig and Wilson, Louise and Erwin, Tim},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0142.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Australia,Blocking,Climate change,Climate models,Storm environments},
number = {1},
pages = {225--242},
title = {{Constraints on Southern Australian rainfall change based on atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 simulations}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Grose2015a,
abstract = {The subtropical ridge (STR) is the mean pressure ridge in the mid-latitudes, and is one of the key features affecting climate variability and change in southeast Australia. Changes to the STR and associated changes to rainfall in a warming climate are of strong interest, and the new Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model archive provides new opportunities to examine this. Here we show that the STR is projected to strengthen and move pole-ward under global warming, contributing to reduced rainfall in the cool season in southeast Australia. This result is largely consistent among 35 models examined, and CMIP5 shows a greater increase in intensity relative to position than CMIP3 did. We show that the simulation of the STR in the CMIP5 is similar to that of the previous CMIP3 in many respects, including the underestimation of both the historical trends in the STR intensity and the correlation between inter-annual STR intensity and southeast Australian rainfall. These issues mean we still have reduced confidence in regional rainfall projections for southeast Australia and suggest that CMIP5 rainfall projections for this region in April to October may be underestimates.},
author = {Grose, M. R. and Timbal, B. and Wilson, L. and Bathols, J. and Kent, D.},
journal = {Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal},
number = {1},
pages = {90--106},
title = {{The subtropical ridge in CMIP5 models, and implications for projections of rainfall in southeast Australia}},
url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/papers.php?year=2015},
volume = {65},
year = {2015}
}
@misc{Grossiord2020,
abstract = {Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure deficit (VPD). VPD has been identified as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought-induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in ‘next-generation' land-surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant- and global-scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long-term projections of climate impacts can be made.},
author = {Grossiord, Charlotte and Buckley, Thomas N. and Cernusak, Lucas A. and Novick, Kimberly A. and Poulter, Benjamin and Siegwolf, Rolf T.W. and Sperry, John S. and McDowell, Nate G.},
booktitle = {New Phytologist},
doi = {10.1111/nph.16485},
issn = {14698137},
keywords = {mortality,productivity,stomatal conductance,transpiration,warming},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1550--1566},
pmid = {32064613},
title = {{Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nph.16485},
volume = {226},
year = {2020}
}
@article{gjwes15,
author = {Gu, Hongping and Jin, Jiming and Wu, Yihua and Ek, Michael B and Subin, Zachary M},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0978-y},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {apr},
number = {3-4},
pages = {471--483},
title = {{Calibration and validation of lake surface temperature simulations with the coupled WRF-lake model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0978-y http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0978-y},
volume = {129},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Gu2018,
abstract = {AbstractTropical (30°N-30°S) interdecadal precipitation changes/trends are explored for the satellite era using GPCP monthly analyses and CMIP5 outputs and focusing on precipitation intensity distributions represented by percentiles (Pct) and other parameters. Positive trends occur for the upper percentiles (Pct≥70th), and become statistically significant for Pct≥80th. Negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles ({\~{}}20th-65th), and are statistically significant for 20th-40th. As part of these trends there is a decadal shift around 1998, indicating the presence of an interdecadal (Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]) signal. For the lower percentiles (Pct≤10th), positive trends occur, although weakly. The AMIP-type simulations generally show similar trend results for their respective time periods.Precipitation intensity changes are further examined using four precipitation categories based on the climatological percentiles: Wet (Pct≥70th), Intermediate (70th{\textgreater}Pct≥30th), Dry (30th{\textgreater}Pct≥5th), and No...},
author = {Gu, Guojun and Adler, Robert F.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0550.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4775--4790},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Precipitation Intensity Changes in the Tropics from Observations and Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0550.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gu2019,
abstract = {Anthropogenic impacts on widespread global soil moisture (SM) drying in the root zone layer during 1948‐2005 were evaluated based on the Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (GLDAS‐2) and Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) using trend analysis and optimal fingerprint methods. Both methods show agreement that natural forcing alone cannot drive significant SM drying. There is a high probability (≥90{\%}) that the anthropogenic climate change signal is detectable in global SM drying. Specifically, anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing can lead to global SM drying by 2.1×10‐3 m3/m3, which is comparable to the drying trend seen in GLDAS‐2 (2.4×10‐3 m3/m3) over the past 58 years. Global SM drying is expected to continue in the future, given continuous greenhouse gas emissions.},
author = {Gu, Xihui and Zhang, Qiang and Li, Jianfeng and Singh, Vijay P. and Liu, Jianyu and Sun, Peng and Cheng, Changxiu},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL080768},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Attribution,Human activities,Soil Moisture moisture},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2573--2582},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Attribution of Global Soil Moisture Drying to Human Activities: A Quantitative Viewpoint}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL080768 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080768},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gu2015ClimDyn,
abstract = {During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 1998/1999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal-scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDO's phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres, even though the PDO's net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well. However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes/trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors: anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific, including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDO's contributions. Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.},
author = {Gu, Guojun and Adler, Robert F. and Huffman, George J.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2634-x},
isbn = {0038201526},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,Global  and temperature change/variab,Pacific Decadal Oscillation,The effect of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas related},
month = {may},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1091--1105},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Long-term changes/trends in surface temperature and precipitation during the satellite era (1979–2012)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007{\%}2Fs00382-015-2634-x http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2634-x},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Gu2018d,
abstract = {The climate change impacts on droughts have received widespread attention in many recent studies. However, previous studies mainly attribute the changes in future droughts to human-induced climate change, while the impacts of internal climate variability (ICV) have not been addressed adequately. In order to specifically consider the ICV in drought impacts, this study investigates the changes in meteorological drought conditions for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) relative to a historical period (1971–2000) in China, using two multi-member ensembles (MMEs). These two MMEs include a 40-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and a 10-member ensemble of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Mark, version 3.6.0 (CSIRO-Mlk3.6.0). The use of MMEs significantly increases the sample size, which makes it possible to apply an empirical distribution to drought frequency analysis. The results show that in the near future period (2021–2050), the overall drought conditions represented by drought frequency of 30- and 50-year return periods of drought duration and drought severity in China will deteriorate. More frequent droughts will occur in western China and southwestern China with longer drought duration and higher drought severity. In the far future period (2071–2100), the nationwide drought conditions will be alleviated, but model uncertainty will also become significant. Deteriorating drought conditions will continue in southwestern China over this time period. Thus, future droughts in southwestern China should be given more attention and mitigation measures need to be carefully conceived in these regions. Overall, this study proposed a method of taking into account internal climate variability in drought assessment, which is of significant importance in climate change impact studies.},
author = {Gu, Lei and Chen, Jie and Xu, Chong-Yu and Wang, Hui-Min and Zhang, LiPing},
doi = {10.3390/w10111702},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1702},
title = {{Synthetic Impacts of Internal Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Change on Future Meteorological Droughts over China}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/11/1702},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Guan2012,
author = {Guan, Bin and Waliser, Duane E. and Molotch, Noah P. and Fetzer, Eric J. and Neiman, Paul J.},
doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-11-00087.1},
issn = {0027-0644},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {325--342},
title = {{Does the Madden–Julian Oscillation Influence Wintertime Atmospheric Rivers and Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada?}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00087.1},
volume = {140},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Guan2015,
abstract = {Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play important roles in the global water cycle and regional weather/hydrology. A technique is developed for objective detection of ARs on the global domain based on characteristics of the integrated water vapor transport (IVT). AR detection involves thresholding 6-hourly fields of ERA-Interim IVT based on the 85th percentile specific to each season and grid cell and a fixed lower limit of 100 kgm-1 s-1 and checking for the geometry requirements of length {\textgreater}2000 km, length/width ratio {\textgreater}2, and other considerations indicative of AR conditions. Output of the detection includes the AR shape, axis, landfall location, and basic statistics of each detected AR. The performance of the technique is evaluated by comparison to AR detection in the western North America, Britain, and East Antarctica with three independently conducted studies using different techniques, with over {\~{}}90{\%} agreement in AR dates. Among the parameters tested, AR detection shows the largest sensitivity to the length criterion in terms of changes in the resulting statistical distribution of AR intensity and geometry. Global distributions of key AR characteristics are examined, and the results highlight the global footprints of ARs and their potential importance on global and regional scales. Also examined are seasonal dependence of AR frequency and precipitation and their modulation by four prominent modes of large-scale climate variability. The results are in broad consistency with previous studies that focused on land falling ARs in the west coasts of North America and Europe.},
author = {Guan, Bin and Waliser, Duane E.},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD024257},
issn = {21562202},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {atmospheric river,climate modulation,climatology,detection,global characteristics,seasonality},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {12514--12535},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Detection of atmospheric rivers: Evaluation and application of an algorithm for global studies}},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Gudmundsson2016,
abstract = {Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is {\textgreater}95{\%} likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is {\textgreater}95{\%} likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures.},
author = {Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044005},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Europe,climate change,detection and attribution,drought,precipitation,risk},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {044005},
title = {{Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044005},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Gudmundsson2019GRL,
abstract = {This study investigates global changes in indicators of mean and extreme streamflow. The assessment is based on the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and focuses on time series of the annual minimum, the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles, the annual mean, and the annual maximum of daily streamflow. Trends are estimated using the Sen‐Theil slope and the significance of mean regional trends is established through bootstrapping. Changes in the indices are often regionally consistent, showing that the entire flow distribution is moving either upward or downward. In addition, the analysis confirms the complex nature of hydrological change where drying in some regions (e.g. in the Mediterranean) is contrasted by wetting in other regions (e.g. North Asia). Observed changes are discussed in the context of previous results and with respect to model estimates of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and human water management.},
author = {Gudmundsson, L. and Leonard, M. and Do, H. X. and Westra, S. and Seneviratne, S. I.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079725},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {discharge,droughts,floods,streamflow,trend,water resources},
month = {dec},
pages = {756--766},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Observed Trends in Global Indicators of Mean and Extreme Streamflow}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL079725},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gudmundsson2021,
author = {Gudmundsson, Lukas and Boulange, Julien and Do, Hong X. and Gosling, Simon N. and Grillakis, Manolis G. and Koutroulis, Aristeidis G. and Leonard, Michael and Liu, Junguo and {M{\"{u}}ller Schmied}, Hannes and Papadimitriou, Lamprini and Pokhrel, Yadu and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Satoh, Yusuke and Thiery, Wim and Westra, Seth and Zhang, Xuebin and Zhao, Fang},
doi = {10.1126/science.aba3996},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {mar},
number = {6534},
pages = {1159--1162},
title = {{Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aba3996},
volume = {371},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Guerreiro2018NatureCC,
abstract = {Temperature scaling studies suggest that hourly rainfall magnitudes might increase beyond thermodynamic expectations with global warming1,2,3; that is, above the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate of {\~{}}6.5{\%} °C−1. However, there is limited evidence of such increases in long-term observations. Here, we calculate continental-average changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme hourly and daily rainfall observations from Australia over the years 1990–2013 and 1966–1989. Observed changes are compared with the uncertainty from natural variability and expected changes from CC scaling as a result of global mean surface temperature change. We show that increases in daily rainfall extremes are consistent with CC scaling, but are within the range of natural variability. In contrast, changes in the magnitude of hourly rainfall extremes are close to or exceed double the expected CC scaling, and are above the range of natural variability, exceeding CC × 3 in the tropical region (north of 23° S). These continental-scale changes in extreme rainfall are not explained by changes in the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation or changes in the seasonality of extremes. Our results indicate that CC scaling on temperature provides a severe underestimate of observed changes in hourly rainfall extremes in Australia, with implications for assessing the impacts of extreme rainfall.},
author = {Guerreiro, Selma B and Fowler, Hayley J and Barbero, Renaud and Westra, Seth and Lenderink, Geert and Blenkinsop, Stephen and Lewis, Elizabeth and Li, Xiao-Feng},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0245-3},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {9},
pages = {803--807},
publisher = {Springer Nature America, Inc},
title = {{Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fs41558-018-0245-3},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Guerrieri2019,
abstract = {Multiple lines of evidence suggest that plant water-use efficiency (WUE)—the ratio of carbon assimilation to water loss—has increased in recent decades. Although rising atmospheric CO2 has been proposed as the principal cause, the underlying physiological mechanisms are still being debated, and implications for the global water cycle remain uncertain. Here, we addressed this gap using 30-y tree ring records of carbon and oxygen isotope measurements and basal area increment from 12 species in 8 North American mature temperate forests. Our goal was to separate the contributions of enhanced photosynthesis and reduced stomatal conductance to WUE trends and to assess consistency between multiple commonly used methods for estimating WUE. Our results show that tree ring-derived estimates of increases in WUE are consistent with estimates from atmospheric measurements and predictions based on an optimal balancing of carbon gains and water costs, but are lower than those based on ecosystem-scale flux observations. Although both physiological mechanisms contributed to rising WUE, enhanced photosynthesis was widespread, while reductions in stomatal conductance were modest and restricted to species that experienced moisture limitations. This finding challenges the hypothesis that rising WUE in forests is primarily the result of widespread, CO2-induced reductions in stomatal conductance.},
author = {Guerrieri, Rossella and Belmecheri, Soumaya and Ollinger, Scott V. and Asbjornsen, Heidi and Jennings, Katie and Xiao, Jingfeng and Stocker, Benjamin D. and Martin, Mary and Hollinger, David Y. and Bracho-Garrillo, Rosvel and Clark, Kenneth and Dore, Sabina and Kolb, Thomas and {William Munger}, J. and Novick, Kimberly and Richardson, Andrew D.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1905912116},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {AmeriFlux fertilization,Stable isotopes,Tree rings,Water-use efficiency},
month = {aug},
number = {34},
pages = {16909--16914},
title = {{Disentangling the role of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance on rising forest water-use efficiency}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/116/34/16909.abstract},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Guhathakurta2017,
abstract = {Meteorological drought during the southwest monsoon season and for the north east monsoon season over five meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1901-2015 has been examined using district and all India standardized precipitation index (SPI). Whenever all India southwest monsoon rainfall was less than -10{\%} or below normal, for those years all India SPI was found as -1 or less. Composite analysis of SPI for the below normal years viz less than -15{\%} and -20{\%} of normal rainfall years indicate that during those years more than 30 {\%} of country's area was under drought condition whenever all India Southwest monsoon rainfall was -15{\%} or less than normal. Trend analysis of monthly SPI for the monsoon months identified the districts experiencing significant increase in drought occurrences. Significant positive correlation has been found with the meteorological drought over most of the districts of central, northern and peninsular India while negative correlation being seen over the districts of eastern India with NINO 3.4 SST. For the first time meteorological drought analysis over districts and its association with equatorial pacific SST and probability analysis has been done for the north east monsoon over the affected regions of south peninsular India. Temporal correlation of all India southwest monsoon SPI and south peninsular India north east monsoon SPI has been done with the global SST to identify the teleconnection of drought in India with global parameters.},
author = {Guhathakurta, P. and Menon, Preetha and Inkane, P. M. and Krishnan, Usha and Sable, S. T.},
doi = {10.1007/s12040-017-0896-x},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0253-4126},
journal = {Journal of Earth System Science},
keywords = {Meteorological drought,Monsoon,Sea surface temperature,Standardized precipitation index},
month = {dec},
number = {8},
pages = {120},
publisher = {Springer India},
title = {{Trends and variability of meteorological drought over the districts of India using standardized precipitation index}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-017-0896-x http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12040-017-0896-x},
volume = {126},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gulizia2015a,
abstract = {ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of two sets of global climate models (GCMs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to represent the summer, winter, and annual precipitation mean patterns in South America south of the equator and in three particular sub-regions, between years 1960 and 1999. Different metrics (relative bias, spatial correlation, RMSE, and relative errors) were calculated and compared between both projects to determine if there has been improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5 models in the representation of regional rainfall. Results from this analysis indicate that for the analysed seasons, precipitation simulated by both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models' ensembles exhibited some differences. In DJF, the relative bias over Amazonia, central South America, eastern Argentina, and Uruguay is reduced in CMIP5 compared with CMIP3. In JJA, the same occurs in some areas of Amazonia. Annual precipitation is also better represented by the CMIP5 than CMIP3 GCMs as they underestimate precipitation to a lesser extent, although in NE Brazil the overestimation values are much larger in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 analysis. In line with previous studies, the multi-model ensembles show the best representation of the observed patterns in most seasons and regions. Only in some cases, single GCMs [MIROC3.2(hires) ? CMIP3? and MIROC4h ? CMIP5] presented better results than the ensemble. The high horizontal resolution of these models suggests that this could be a relevant issue for a more adequate estimation of rainfall at least in the analysed regions.},
author = {Gulizia, Carla and Camilloni, In{\'{e}}s},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4005},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {CMIP3,CMIP5,South America,evaluation,global climate models,precipitation},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {583--595},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Comparative analysis of the ability of a set of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models to represent precipitation in South America}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4005 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4005},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Guo2016a,
abstract = {AbstractThe HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulfur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, resulting in rainfall increases over northern India due to the elevated heat pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the premonsoon, and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Second, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However, the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the componen...},
author = {Guo, Liang and Turner, Andrew G. and Highwood, Eleanor J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0728.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Aerosols,Atm/Ocean structure/phenomena,Climate change,Monsoons,Physical meteorology and climatology,Precipitation},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {6937--6955},
title = {{Local and Remote Impacts of Aerosol Species on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in a GCM}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0728.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Guo2017,
author = {Guo, Jianping and Su, Tianning and Li, Zhanqing and Miao, Yucong and Li, Jing and Liu, Huan and Xu, Hui and Cribb, Maureen and Zhai, Panmao},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073533},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5700--5708},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Declining frequency of summertime local-scale precipitation over eastern China from 1970 to 2010 and its potential link to aerosols}},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Guo2017c,
abstract = {The coastal region of East Asia (EA) is one of the regions with the most frequent impacts from tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, rainfall and moisture transports related to TCs are measured over EA, and the contribution of TCs to the regional water budget is compared with other contributors, especially the mean circulation of the EA summer monsoon (EASM). Based on ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2012), the trajectories of TCs are identified using an objective feature tracking method. Over 60{\%} of TCs occur from July to October (JASO). During JASO, TC rainfall contributes 10{\%}–30{\%} of the monthly total rainfall over the coastal region of EA; this contribution is highest over the south/southeast coast of China in September. TCs make a larger contribution to daily extreme rainfall (above the 95th percentile): 50{\%}–60{\%} over the EA coast and as high as 70{\%} over Taiwan Island. Compared with the mean EASM, TCs transport less moisture over EA. However, as the peak of the mean seasonal cycle of TCs lags two months behind that of the EASM, the moisture transported by TCs is an important source for the water budget over the EA region when the EASM withdraws. This moisture transport is largely performed by westward-moving TCs. These results improve understanding of the water cycle of EA and provide a useful test bed for evaluating and improving seasonal forecasts and coupled climate models.},
author = {Guo, Liang and Klingaman, Nicholas P and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Turner, Andrew G and Demory, Marie-Estelle and Cobb, Alison},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0308.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {3853--3865},
title = {{Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to Atmospheric Moisture Transport and Rainfall over East Asia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0308.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Guo2019a,
abstract = {Detecting and attributing a human influence on observed rainfall trends is a major challenge due to the presence of large amplitude internal variability on all time scales and by limited temporal and spatial data coverage. Here we apply a “dynamical adjustment” methodology to a gridded archive of monthly precipitation to estimate an anthropogenic influence on long-term (1920–2015) trends over North America and Eurasia during winter (November–March). This empirical approach aims to remove atmospheric circulation influences from precipitation variability and trends, thereby revealing the thermodynamically induced component as a residual. The geographical pattern and amplitude of this observed thermodynamic residual precipitation trend are in good agreement with anthropogenically forced trends obtained from ensembles of historical climate model simulations. Such consistency helps to reconcile observations and models and provides compelling evidence for a human influence on century-scale precipitation trends over North America and Eurasia during the cold season.},
author = {Guo, Ruixia and Deser, Clara and Terray, Laurent and Lehner, Flavio},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081316},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {anthropogenic climate change,dynamical adjustment,precipitation trends},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {3426--3434},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Human Influence on Winter Precipitation Trends (1921–2015) over North America and Eurasia Revealed by Dynamical Adjustment}},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gusain2020,
abstract = {This study assesses the improvements in climate model (CM) simulations for indicative characteristics representing complex dynamics of Indian summer monsoon rainfall for period 1951–2005 in CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). To our knowledge, this is the first preliminary study which compares the performance of models available in CMIP5 and CMIP6 consortium and their multi-model average (MMA). We find a significant improvement in CMIP6 models in capturing the spatiotemporal pattern of monsoon over Indian landmass, especially in the Western Ghats and North-East foothills of Himalayas. We also show that present-day global warming of 0.6 °C over Indian landmass is remarkably consistent with the changes in annual maximum 1-day precipitation in MMA of CMIP6, which are in agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that added value in CMIP6 models precipitation simulations is not consistent within CMs used in present study. However, it still provides a precedent to the scientific community in performing future studies on climate change impact assessment.},
author = {Gusain, A. and Ghosh, S. and Karmakar, S.},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104680},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,CMIP models phase 6,General circulation models,ISMR characteristics,Multimodel average},
number = {June 2019},
pages = {104680},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Added value of CMIP6 over CMIP5 models in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104680},
volume = {232},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Gutenstein2020,
annote = {precipitation and evaporation of Rodell et al. (2015) was increased within quoted uncertainty (by 5 thousand km3/yr over land and 20 thousand km3/yr over ocean) based on assessment of energy budget constraints and observational evidence},
author = {Gutenstein, Marloes and Fennig, Karsten and Schr{\"{o}}der, Marc and Trent, Tim and Bakan, Stephan and Roberts, J. Brent and Robertson, Franklin R.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-25-121-2021},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {121--146},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{Intercomparison of freshwater fluxes over ocean and investigations into water budget closure}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/25/121/2021/},
volume = {25},
year = {2021}
}
@article{grlibdgfv18,
abstract = {Tropical cyclones have enormous costs to society through both loss of life and damage to infrastructure. There is good reason to believe that such storms will change in the future as a result of changes in the global climate system and that such changes may have important socioeconomic implications. Here a high-resolution regional climate modeling experiment is presented using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate possible changes in tropical cyclones. These simulations were performed for the period 2001–13 using the ERA-Interim product for the boundary conditions, thus enabling a direct comparison between modeled and observed cyclone characteristics. The WRF simulation reproduced 30 of the 32 named storms that entered the model domain during this period. The model simulates the tropical cyclone tracks, storm radii, and translation speeds well, but the maximum wind speeds simulated were less than observed and the minimum central pressures were too large. This experiment is then repeated after imposing a future climate signal by adding changes in temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speeds derived from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In the current climate, 22 tracks were well simulated with little changes in future track locations. These simulations produced tropical cyclones with faster maximum winds, slower storm translation speeds, lower central pressures, and higher precipitation rates. Importantly, while these signals were statistically significant averaged across all 22 storms studied, changes varied substantially between individual storms. This illustrates the importance of using a large ensemble of storms to understand mean changes.},
author = {Gutmann, Ethan D and Rasmussen, Roy M and Liu, Changhai and Ikeda, Kyoko and Bruyere, Cindy L and Done, James M and Garr{\`{e}}, Luca and Friis-Hansen, Peter and Veldore, Vidyunmala},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0391.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3643--3657},
title = {{Changes in Hurricanes from a 13-Yr Convection-Permitting Pseudo–Global Warming Simulation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0391.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0391.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Guzha2018,
abstract = {Region East Africa. Focus A review of catchment studies (n = 37) conducted in East Africa evaluating the impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) on discharge, surface runoff, and low flows. New hydrological insights Forest cover loss is accompanied by increased stream discharges and surface runoff. No significant difference in stream discharge is observed between bamboo and pine plantation catchments, and between cultivated and tea plantation catchments. Trend analyses show that despite forest cover loss, 63{\%} of the watersheds show non-significant changes in annual discharges while 31{\%} show increasing trends. Half of the watersheds show non-significant trends in wet season flows and low flows while 35{\%} reveal decreasing trends in low flows. Modeling studies estimate that forest cover loss increases annual discharges and surface runoff by 16 ± 5.5{\%} and 45 ± 14{\%}, respectively. Peak flows increased by a mean of 10 ± 2.8{\%} while low flows decreased by a mean of 7 ± 5.3{\%}. Increased forest cover decreases annual discharges and surface runoff by 13 ± 1.9{\%} and 25 ± 5{\%}, respectively. Weak correlations between forest cover and runoff (r = 0.42, p {\textless} 0.05), mean discharge (r = 0.63, p {\textless} 0.05) and peak discharge (r = 0.67, p {\textless} 0.05) indicate that forest cover alone is not an accurate predictor of hydrological fluxes in East African catchments. The variability in these results supports the need for long-term field monitoring to better understand catchment responses and to improve the calibration of currently used simulation models.},
author = {Guzha, A. C. and Rufino, M. C. and Okoth, S. and Jacobs, S. and N{\'{o}}brega, R. L.B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.11.005},
issn = {22145818},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
keywords = {Catchment studies,East Africa,Flow regimes,Land use and land cover changes,Modeling,River discharge,Trend analyses},
pages = {49--67},
title = {{Impacts of land use and land cover change on surface runoff, discharge and low flows: Evidence from East Africa}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581817302161},
volume = {15},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ha2020,
abstract = {Abstract Future greenhouse warming is expected to influence the characteristics of global monsoon systems. However, large regional uncertainties still remain. Here we use 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to determine how the length of the summer rainy season and precipitation extremes over the Asian summer monsoon domain will change in response to greenhouse warming. Over East Asia the models simulate on average on the earlier onset and later retreat; whereas over India, the retreat will occur later. The model simulations also show an intensification of extreme rainfall events, as well as an increase of seasonal drought conditions. These results demonstrate the high volatility of the Asian summer monsoon systems and further highlight the need for improved water management strategies in this densely populated part of the world.},
author = {Ha, Kyung‐Ja and Moon, Suyeon and Timmermann, Axel and Kim, Daeha},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL087492},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Asian regional s,CMIP6,extremes duration season},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {1--10},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Characteristics and Evaporative Demand Over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087492 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL087492},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Haarsma2016,
abstract = {Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest the possibility for significant changes in both large-scale aspects of circulation, as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high resolution global simulations at climate time scales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centers and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other MIPs. Increases in High Performance Computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enables a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the possibility to extend to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulation. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions: “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.},
author = {Haarsma, Reindert J. and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Catherine, A. and Bellucci, Alessio and Bao, Qing and Chang, Ping and Corti, Susanna and Fu{\v{c}}kar, Neven S. and Guemas, Virginie and {Von Hardenberg}, Jost and Hazeleger, Wilco and Kodama, Chihiro and Koenigk, Torben and Leung, L. Ruby and Lu, Jian and Luo, Jing Jia and Mao, Jiafu and Mizielinski, Matthew S. and Mizuta, Ryo and Nobre, Paulo and Satoh, Masaki and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Semmler, Tido and Small, Justin and {Von Storch}, Jin Song},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016},
isbn = {1991-9603},
issn = {19919603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {11},
pages = {4185--4208},
title = {{High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6}},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Haertel2018,
author = {Haertel, Patrick},
doi = {10.3390/cli6020045},
issn = {2225-1154},
journal = {Climate},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {45},
title = {{Sensitivity of the Madden Julian Oscillation to Ocean Warming in a Lagrangian Atmospheric Model}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/6/2/45},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Haerter2018,
abstract = {The observed increase of convective extreme precipitation intensities with temperature beyond the Clausius-Clapeyron rate has recently directed attention to nonequilibrium processes that might cause the increase. While out-of-equilibrium simulations with perturbed heating conditions show clear increases in convective precipitation intensities, it has so far remained unclear, to which extent precipitation intensities can increase, when the atmosphere is in “perpetual equilibrium” (PE). We use the term PE to describe periodically forced diurnal cycles that eventually yield an approximately repetitive atmospheric response from day to day. In PE, as defined here, precipitation extremes increase at rates beyond the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. When analyzing causes for the increase, we find the variance in near-surface temperature to increase significantly as precipitation builds up throughout the day and that this temperature variance is larger when surface heating is increased. We propose that enhanced rain evaporation may drive a feedback, by which cold pool activity, and the possible collision of cold pool gust fronts, is strengthened—thereby intensifying subsequent convective updrafts and their precipitation.},
author = {Haerter, Jan O. and Schlemmer, Linda},
doi = {10.1029/2017GL076874},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {cold pool,convection,feedback intensity,self-organization,super Clausius-Clapeyron},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {6299--6310},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Intensified Cold Pool Dynamics Under Stronger Surface Heating}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2017GL076874},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Haghtalab2020,
abstract = {Spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall are governed by complex interactions between climate and landscape perturbations including deforestation, fire, and drought. Previous research demonstrated that rainfall in portions of the Amazon Basin has intensified, resulting in more extreme droughts and floods. The basin has global impacts on climate and hydrologic cycles; thus, it is critical to understand how precipitation patterns and intensity are changing. Due to insufficient precipitation gauges, we analyzed the variability and seasonality of rainfall over the Amazon Basin from 1982 to 2018 using high-resolution gridded precipitation products. We developed several precipitation indices and analyzed their trends using the Mann–Kendall test (Mann 1945; Kendall, 1975) to identify significant changes in rainfall patterns over time and space. Our results show landscape scale changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall events. Specifically, wet areas of the western Basin have become significantly wetter since 1982, with an increase of 182 mm of rainfall per year. In the eastern and southern regions, where deforestation is widespread, a significant drying trend is evident. Additionally, local alterations to precipitation patterns were also observed. For example, the Tocantins region has had a significant increase in the number of dry days during both wet and dry seasons, increasing by about 1 day per year. Surprisingly, changes in rainfall amount and number of dry days do not consistently align. Broadly, over this 37-year period, wet areas are trending wetter and dry areas are trending drier, while spatial anomalies show structure at the scale of hundreds of kilometers.},
author = {Haghtalab, Nafiseh and Moore, Nathan and Heerspink, Brent Porter and Hyndman, David W.},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-019-03085-3},
issn = {14344483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
keywords = {Amazon Basin,Climate feedbacks,Extreme events,Precipitation indices,Precipitation variations,Rainfall seasonality},
number = {1-2},
pages = {411--427},
publisher = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
title = {{Evaluating spatial patterns in precipitation trends across the Amazon basin driven by land cover and global scale forcings}},
volume = {140},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hagos2019,
abstract = {CMIP5 models exhibit a mean dry bias and a large inter-model spread in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation but the origins of the bias and spread are not well understood. Using moisture and energy budget analysis that exploits the weak temperature gradients in the tropics, we derived a non-linear relationship between the normalized precipitation and normalized precipitable water that is similar to the non-linear relationship between precipitation and precipitable water found in previous observational studies. About half of the 21 models analyzed fall in the steep gradient of the non-linear relationship where small differences in the normalized precipitable water in the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) manifest in large differences in normalized precipitation in the region. Models with larger normalized precipitable water in the EIO during spring contribute disproportionately to the large inter-model spread and multi-model mean dry bias in monsoon precipitation through perturbations of the large-scale winds. Thus the intermodel spread in precipitable water over EIO leads to the dry bias in the multi-model mean South Asian monsoon precipitation. The models with high normalized precipitable water over EIO also project larger response to warming and dominate the inter-model spread in the multi-model projections of monsoon rainfall. Conversely, models on the flat side of the relationship between normalized precipitation and precipitable water are in better agreement with each other and with observations. On average these models project a smaller increase in the projected monsoon precipitation than that from multi-model mean. This study identified the normalized precipitable water over EIO, which is determined by the relationship between the profiles of convergence and moisture and therefore is an essential outcome of the treatment of convection, as a key metric for understanding model biases and differentiating model skill in simulating South Asian monsoon precipitation.},
author = {Hagos, Samson M. and Leung, L. Ruby and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Balaguru, Karthik},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4177-4},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1-2},
pages = {1049--1061},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{South Asian monsoon precipitation in CMIP5: a link between inter-model spread and the representations of tropical convection}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4177-4},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{hlylg16,
author = {Hagos, Samson M and Leung, L Ruby and Yoon, Jin‐Ho and Lu, Jian and Gao, Yang},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL067392},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1357--1363},
title = {{A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015GL067392},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ham2018NClim,
abstract = {Future changes in rainfall have serious impacts on human adaptation to climate change, but quantification of these changes is subject to large uncertainties in climate model projections. To narrow these uncertainties, significant efforts have been made to understand the intermodel differences in future rainfall changes. Here, we show a strong inverse relationship between present-day precipitation and its future change to possibly calibrate future precipitation change by removing the present-day bias in climate models. The results of the models with less tropical (40° S–40° N) present-day precipitation are closely linked to the dryness over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, and project weaker regional precipitation increase due to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing 1–6 with stronger zonal Walker circulation. This induces Indo-western Pacific warming through Bjerknes feedback, which reduces relative humidity by the enhanced atmospheric boundary-layer mixing in the future projection. This increases the air–sea humidity difference to enhance tropical evaporation and the resultant precipitation. Our estimation of the sensitivity of the tropical precipitation per 1 K warming, after removing a common bias in the present-day simulation, is about 50{\%} greater than the original future multi-model projection.},
annote = {models with more realsitic (low) east Pacific rainfall simulate strengthened Walker circulation, greater west Pacific warming through Bjerknes feedback and greater tropical precipitation overall due to evaporation responses and based on observations this implies projected tropical precipitation responses may be larger than simulated by the CMIP5 model ensemble mean},
author = {Ham, Yoo Geun and Kug, Jong Seong and Choi, Jun Young and Jin, Fei Fei and Watanabe, Masahiro},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-017-0033-5},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {64--69},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0033-5},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hamada2015,
abstract = {Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall is associated with the most intense storms, yet this relationship remains untested. Here, Hamada et al. analyse 11 years of radar observations from the topics and subtropics, and conclude that the heaviest rainfall is most commonly associated with less intense convection.},
annote = {most intense rainfall events are associated with less intense convection based on 11-years of satellite data},
author = {Hamada, Atsushi and Takayabu, Yukari N. and Liu, Chuntao and Zipser, Edward J.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms7213},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {6213},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Weak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms7213},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hamada2018a,
abstract = {The precipitation characteristics of extreme events in August determined from 13 years of satellite data around Japan in the TRMM observation region and their relationship with large-scale environmental conditions are examined. Two types of extreme events, extreme rainfall and extreme convective events, are defined in each analysis grid box using maximum near-surface rainfall and maximum 40-dBZ echo-top height in each event, respectively. There are clear differences in precipitation characteristics between the two types of extreme events. Extreme rainfall events are more organized precipitation systems than the extreme convective events, with relatively lower echo-top heights and very low lightning activity. There are also clear differences in the related environmental conditions, where the environments related to the extreme rainfall events are somewhat convectively stable and very humid in almost the entire troposphere. These facts are consistent with our previous studies and reinforce the importance of warm-rain processes in extremely intense precipitation productions. The environments related to the extreme rainfall events exhibit a zonally extended moist anomaly in the free troposphere from southern China to the east of Japan, indicating that the excessive moisture transported from the west by a large-scale flow may partially play a role in producing environmental conditions favorable for extreme rainfall. On the other hand, the environments related to extreme convective events are not associated with free-tropospheric moisture inflow. The relationships with the tropical cyclones and upper-tropospheric dynamical fields are also examined, and are found to be clearly different between the extreme rainfall events and extreme convective events.},
author = {Hamada, Atsushi and Takayabu, Yukari N.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0632.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Extreme events,Moisture/moisture budget,Rainfall,Satellite Summer/warm season,Synoptic-scale processes},
month = {jul},
number = {17},
pages = {6933--6945},
title = {{Large-scale environmental conditions related to midsummer extreme rainfall events around Japan in the TRMM region}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0632.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{han2017updates,
author = {Han, Jongil and Wang, Weiguo and Kwon, Young C and Hong, Song-You and Tallapragada, Vijay and Yang, Fanglin},
doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-17-0046.1},
issn = {0882-8156},
journal = {Weather and Forecasting},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {2005--2017},
title = {{Updates in the NCEP GFS Cumulus Convection Schemes with Scale and Aerosol Awareness}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0046.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Han2014,
abstract = {Weather and climate changes caused by human activities (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and urbanization) have received much attention because of their impacts on human lives as well as scientific interests. The detection, understanding, and future projection of weather and climate changes due to urbanization are important subjects in the discipline of urban meteorology and climatology. This article reviews urban impacts on precipitation. Observational studies of changes in convective phenomena over and around cities are reviewed, with focus on precipitation enhancement downwind of cities. The proposed causative factors (urban heat island, large surface roughness, and higher aerosol concentration) and mechanisms of urban-induced and/or urban-modified precipitation are then reviewed and discussed, with focus on downwind precipitation enhancement. A universal mechanism of urban-induced precipitation is made through a thorough literature review and is as follows. The urban heat island produces updrafts on the leeward or downwind side of cities, and the urban heat island-induced updrafts initiate moist convection under favorable thermodynamic conditions, thus leading to surface precipitation. Surface precipitation is likely to further increase under higher aerosol concentrations if the air humidity is high and deep and strong convection occurs. It is not likely that larger urban surface roughness plays a major role in urbaninduced precipitation. Larger urban surface roughness can, however, disrupt or bifurcate precipitating convective systems formed outside cities while passing over the cities. Such urban-modified precipitating systems can either increase or decrease precipitation over and/or downwind of cities. Much effort is needed for in-depth or new understanding of urban precipitation anomalies, which includes local and regional modeling studies using advanced numerical models and analysis studies of long-term radar data. {\textcopyright} The Korean Meteorological Society and Springer 2014.},
author = {Han, Ji Young and Baik, Jong Jin and Lee, Hyunho},
doi = {10.1007/s13143-014-0016-7},
issn = {19767951},
journal = {Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences},
keywords = {Aerosols,Precipitation,Surface roughness,Urban heat island,Urban impacts,Urbanization},
number = {1},
pages = {17--30},
title = {{Urban impacts on precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0016-7},
volume = {50},
year = {2014}
}
@article{hess-22-789-2018,
abstract = {Abstract. Humans abstract water from various sources to sustain their livelihood and society. Some global hydrological models (GHMs) include explicit schemes of human water abstraction, but the representation and performance of these schemes remain limited. We substantially enhanced the water abstraction schemes of the H08 GHM. This enabled us to estimate water abstraction from six major water sources, namely, river flow regulated by global reservoirs (i.e., reservoirs regulating the flow of the world's major rivers), aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, seawater desalination, renewable groundwater, and nonrenewable groundwater. In its standard setup, the model covers the whole globe at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, and the calculation interval is 1 day. All the interactions were simulated in a single computer program, and all water fluxes and storage were strictly traceable at any place and time during the simulation period. A global hydrological simulation was conducted to validate the performance of the model for the period of 1979–2013 (land use was fixed for the year 2000). The simulated water fluxes for water abstraction were validated against those reported in earlier publications and showed a reasonable agreement at the global and country level. The simulated monthly river discharge and terrestrial water storage (TWS) for six of the world's most significantly human-affected river basins were compared with gauge observations and the data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. It is found that the simulation including the newly added schemes outperformed the simulation without human activities. The simulated results indicated that, in 2000, of the 3628±75 km3 yr−1 global freshwater requirement, 2839±50 km3 yr−1 was taken from surface water and 789±30 km3 yr−1 from groundwater. Streamflow, aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, and seawater desalination accounted for 1786±23, 199±10, 106±5, and 1.8±0 km3 yr−1 of the surface water, respectively. The remaining 747±45 km3 yr−1 freshwater requirement was unmet, or surface water was not available when and where it was needed in our simulation. Renewable and nonrenewable groundwater accounted for 607±11 and 182±26 km3 yr−1 of the groundwater total, respectively. Each source differed in its renewability, economic costs for development, and environmental consequences of usage. The model is useful for performing global water resource assessments by considering the aspects of sustainability, economy, and environment.},
author = {Hanasaki, Naota and Yoshikawa, Sayaka and Pokhrel, Yadu and Kanae, Shinjiro},
doi = {10.5194/hess-22-789-2018},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {789--817},
title = {{A global hydrological simulation to specify the sources of water used by humans}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/22/789/2018/},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hanel2018,
abstract = {Early 21st-century droughts in Europe have been broadly regarded as exceptionally severe, substantially affecting a wide range of socio-economic sectors. These extreme events were linked mainly to increases in temperature and record-breaking heatwaves that have been influencing Europe since 2000, in combination with a lack of precipitation during the summer months. Drought propagated through all respective compartments of the hydrological cycle, involving low runoff and prolonged soil moisture deficits. What if these recent droughts are not as extreme as previously thought? Using reconstructed droughts over the last 250 years, we show that although the 2003 and 2015 droughts may be regarded as the most extreme droughts driven by precipitation deficits during the vegetation period, their spatial extent and severity at a long-term European scale are less uncommon. This conclusion is evident in our concurrent investigation of three major drought types - meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture) and hydrological (grid-scale runoff) droughts. Additionally, unprecedented drying trends for soil moisture and corresponding increases in the frequency of agricultural droughts are also observed, reflecting the recurring periods of high temperatures. Since intense and extended meteorological droughts may reemerge in the future, our study highlights concerns regarding the impacts of such extreme events when combined with persistent decrease in European soil moisture.},
author = {Hanel, Martin and Rakovec, Oldřich and Markonis, Yannis and M{\'{a}}ca, Petr and Samaniego, Luis and Kysel{\'{y}}, Jan and Kumar, Rohini},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-27464-4},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {9499},
pmid = {29934591},
title = {{Revisiting the recent European droughts from a long-term perspective}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-27464-4},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hanna2013,
abstract = {Correlation analysis of Greenland coastal weather station temperatures against the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices for the summer season (when Ice Sheet melt and runoff occur) reveals significant temporal variations over the last 100 years, with periods of strongest correlations in the early twentieth century and during recent decades. During the mid-twentieth century, temperature changes at the stations are not significantly correlated with these circulation indices. Greenland coastal summer temperatures and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff since the 1970s are more strongly correlated with the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) than with the NAO Index (NAOI), making the GBI a potentially useful predictor of ice-sheet mass balance changes. Our results show that the changing strength of NAOI-temperature relationships found in boreal winter also extends to summer over Greenland. Greenland temperatures and GrIS runoff over the last 30-40 years are significantly correlated with AMO variations, although they are more strongly correlated with GBI changes. GrIS melt extent is less significantly correlated with atmospheric and oceanic index changes than runoff, which we attribute to the latter being a more quantitative index of Ice Sheet response to climate change. Moreover, the four recent warm summers of 2007-2010 are characterised by unprecedented high pressure (since at least 1948-the start of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis record) in the tropospheric column. Our results suggest complex and changing atmospheric forcing conditions that are not well captured using the NAO alone, and support theories of an oceanic influence on the recent increases in Greenland temperatures and GrIS runoff. {\textcopyright} 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.},
author = {Hanna, Edward and Jones, Julie M. and Cappelen, John and Mernild, Sebastian H. and Wood, Len and Steffen, Konrad and Huybrechts, Philippe},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3475},
isbn = {1097-0088},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Atlantic multidecadal oscillation,Climate,Global warming,Greenland,Greenland Blocking Index,North Atlantic Oscillation},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {862--880},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The influence of North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic forcing effects on 1900–2010 Greenland summer climate and ice melt/runoff}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.3475 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.3475 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3475},
volume = {33},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hanna2018,
abstract = {Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950-2100. We find that the recent summer GBI increase lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models.},
author = {Hanna, Edward and Fettweis, Xavier and Hall, Richard J.},
doi = {10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018},
issn = {19940424},
journal = {Cryosphere},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {3287--3292},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models}},
volume = {12},
year = {2018}
}
@article{hansen2004small,
author = {Hansen, Zeynep K. and Libecap, Gary D.},
doi = {10.1086/383102},
issn = {0022-3808},
journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {665--694},
publisher = {The University of Chicago Press},
title = {{Small Farms, Externalities, and the Dust Bowl of the 1930s}},
url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/383102},
volume = {112},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Hari2020,
abstract = {Abstract Since 2002, there has been a clear increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). We demonstrate that this increase is associated with a change in the dynamics of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Using a recently-released reanalysis product from 1980-2016, we show that the ITCZ has strengthened and propagated northward since 2002. Analysis of the total energy-budget reveals an increase in energy divergence and atmospheric diabatic heating, which is consistent with the changes in the ITCZ. Although global aerosol optical depth shows a significant positive trend during 1980-2016, it has declined over many parts of India since 2002. We put forward the hypothesis that this is the driver of the changing characteristics of the ITCZ. Our results suggest that changes in the dynamics of the ITCZ, together with changes in the energy/moisture-budget, are responsible for the strengthening of ISMR since 2002, consistent with the emergence of a greenhouse-gas induced signal.},
author = {Hari, Vittal and Villarini, Gabriele and Karmakar, Subhankar and Wilcox, Laura J and Collins, Mat},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL089823},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {e2020GL089823},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Northward Propagation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Strengthening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089823 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL089823},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{harpold2017defining,
abstract = {Swings from snow drought to extreme winter rainfall make managing reservoirs, like the Oroville Dam, incredibly difficult. But what exactly is "snow drought"?},
author = {Harpold, Adrian and Dettinger, Michael and Rajagopal, Seshadri},
doi = {10.1029/2017EO068775},
issn = {2324-9250},
journal = {Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union},
month = {feb},
title = {{Defining Snow Drought and Why It Matters}},
url = {https://eos.org/opinions/defining-snow-drought-and-why-it-matters},
volume = {98},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Harris2016,
author = {Harris, Lucas M. and Lin, Shian-Jiann and Tu, ChiaYing},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0389.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {4293--4314},
title = {{High-Resolution Climate Simulations Using GFDL HiRAM with a Stretched Global Grid}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0389.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Harrison:2015,
author = {Harrison, S P and Bartlein, P J and Izumi, K and Li, G and Annan, J and Hargreaves, J and Braconnot, P and Kageyama, M},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2649},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {735--743},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2649},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Harrison2014,
abstract = {Past climates provide a test of models' ability to predict climate change. We present a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models against Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene climates, using reconstruc- tions of land and ocean climates and simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling and Coupled Modelling Inter- comparison Projects. Newer models do not perform better than earlier versions despite higher resolution and com- plexity. Differences in climate sensitivity only weakly account for differences in model performance. In the gla- cial, models consistently underestimate land cooling (especially in winter) and overestimate ocean surface cooling (especially in the tropics). In the mid-Holocene, models generally underestimate the precipitation increase in the northern monsoon regions, and overestimate summer warming in central Eurasia. Models generally capture large-scale gradients of climate change but have more limited ability to reproduce spatial patterns. Despite these common biases, some models perform better than others.},
author = {Harrison, S.P. and Bartlein, P.J. and Brewer, S. and Prentice, I. C. and Boyd, M. and Hessler, I. and Holmgren, K. and Izumi, K. and Willis, K.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1922-6},
isbn = {9788578110796},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate sensitivity,Climate-model evaluation,Last Glacial Maximum,Mid-Holocene monsoons,Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {671--688},
pmid = {25246403},
title = {{Climate model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-013-1922-6},
volume = {43},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Harrop2016,
abstract = {The relationship between the tropical circulation and cloud radiative effect is investigated. Output from the Clouds On–Off Klimate Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE) is used to examine the impact of cloud radiative effects on circulation and climate. In aquaplanet simulations with a fixed SST pattern, the cloud radiative effect leads to an equatorward contraction of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and a reduction of the double ITCZ problem. It is shown that the cloud radiative heating in the upper troposphere increases the temperature, weakens CAPE, and inhibits the onset of convection until it is closer to the equator, where SSTs are higher. Precipitation peaks at higher values in a narrower band when the cloud radiative effects are active, compared to when they are inactive, owing to the enhancement in moisture convergence. Additionally, cloud–radiation interactions strengthen the mean meridional circulation and consequently enhance the moisture convergence. Although the mean tropical precipitation decreases, the atmospheric cloud radiative effect has a strong meridional gradient, which supports stronger poleward energy flux and speeds up the Hadley circulation. Cloud radiative heating also enhances cloud water path (liquid plus ice), which, combined with the reduction in precipitation, suggests that the cloud radiative heating reduces precipitation efficiency in these models.},
author = {Harrop, Bryce E. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0521.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {CAPE,Circulation/ dynamics,Cloud radiative effects,Clouds,General circulation models,Hadley circulation,Models and modeling,Physical meteorology and climatology},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2741--2763},
title = {{The Role of Cloud Radiative Heating in Determining the Location of the ITCZ in Aquaplanet Simulations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0521.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{IPCCObservationsAtmosphereSurfaceHartmann2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Hartmann, Dennis L and {Klein Tank}, Albert M G and Rusticucci, Matilde and Alexander, Lisa V and Br{\"{o}}nnimann, Stefan and Charabi, Yassine Abdul-Rahman and Dentener, Frank J and Dlugokencky, Edward J and Easterling, David R and Kaplan, Alexey and Soden, Brian J and Thorne, Peter W and Wild, Martin and Zhai, Panmao M and Uk, Richard Allan Robert Allan and Uk, Richard Allan Robert Allan and Cooper, Owen and Canada, Fioletov and Uk, John Kennedy and Uk, Elizabeth Kent and Germany, Stefan Kinne and Uk, Christopher Merchant and Morice, Colin and Hartmann, Dennis L J L and {Klein Tank}, Albert M G and Rusticucci, Matilde and Alexander, Lisa V and Br{\"{o}}nnimann, Stefan and Charabi, Yassine Abdul-Rahman and Dentener, Frank J and Dlugokencky, Edward J and Easterling, David R and Kaplan, Alexey and Soden, Brian J and Thorne, Peter W and Wild, Martin and Zhai, Panmao M},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {2},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.008},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {159--254},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Observations: Atmosphere and Surface}},
type = {Book Section},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hartmann2017,
abstract = {Our environment is heterogeneous. In hydrological sciences, the heterogeneity of subsurface properties, such as hydraulic conductivities or porosities, exerts an important control on water balance. This notably includes groundwater recharge, which is an important variable for efficient and sustainable groundwater resources management. Current large-scale hydrological models do not adequately consider this subsurface heterogeneity. Here we show that regions with strong subsurface heterogeneity have enhanced present and future recharge rates due to a different sensitivity of recharge to climate variability compared with regions with homogeneous subsurface properties. Our study domain comprises the carbonate rock regions of Europe, Northern Africa, and the Middle East, which cover ∼25{\%} of the total land area. We compare the simulations of two large-scale hydrological models, one of them accounting for subsurface heterogeneity. Carbonate rock regions strongly exhibit “karstification,” which is known to produce particularly strong subsurface heterogeneity. Aquifers from these regions contribute up to half of the drinking water supply for some European countries. Our results suggest that water management for these regions cannot rely on most of the presently available projections of groundwater recharge because spatially variable storages and spatial concentration of recharge result in actual recharge rates that are up to four times larger for present conditions and changes up to five times larger for potential future conditions than previously estimated. These differences in recharge rates for strongly heterogeneous regions suggest a need for groundwater management strategies that are adapted to the fast transit of water from the surface to the aquifers.},
author = {Hartmann, Andreas and Gleeson, Tom and Wada, Yoshihide and Wagener, Thorsten},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1614941114},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {11},
pages = {2842--2847},
title = {{Enhanced groundwater recharge rates and altered recharge sensitivity to climate variability through subsurface heterogeneity}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1614941114},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hartmann2015,
abstract = {Drought-induced tree mortality has received much attention in the recent past. McDowell et al.'s (2008) hydraulic framework links tree hydraulics with carbon dynamics and proposes two non-exclusive mortality mechanisms: carbon starvation (CS) and hydraulic failure (HF). CS is often referred to as the (partial) depletion of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) in response to stomatal closure, reduced C assimilation and sustained C storage dependency during longer droughts. HF describes a lethal level of xylem dysfunction from runaway embolism during severe droughts. While HF can be readily inferred from the percentage loss of conductivity in vascular tissues at the time of death, CS is much more difficult to assess.Starvation is usually defined as a lack of food leading to suffering or death. In plants photosynthetic sugars play many functional roles, not only as a source of catabolic energy. For example, sugars are important for osmotic regulation of cell pressure and recent studies suggest a potential link between xylem parenchyma sugars and embolism repair following drought. Hence, carbon limitation could have a direct impact on tree hydraulics and HF; however, empirical evidence for such a mechanism is still inconclusive.Although HF appears to be predominant during drought mortality, our limited understanding of the roles of NSC in hydraulic function precludes any premature refutation of CS as a mechanism in drought-induced tree mortality.},
author = {Hartmann, Henrik},
doi = {10.20870/jph.2015.e005},
issn = {2426-413X},
journal = {Journal of Plant Hydraulics},
month = {nov},
pages = {e005},
title = {{Carbon starvation during drought-induced tree mortality – are we chasing a myth?}},
url = {https://jplanthydro.org/article/view/66},
volume = {2},
year = {2015}
}
@article{HarveyB.J.CookP.ShaffreyL.C.andSchiemann,
abstract = {Understanding and predicting how extratropical cyclones might respond to climate change is essential for assessing future weather risks and informing climate change adaptation strategies. Climate model simulations provide a vital component of this assessment, with the caveat that their representation of the present-day climate is adequate. In this study the representation of the NH storm tracks and jet streams and their responses to climate change are evaluated across the three major phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: CMIP3 (2007), CMIP5 (2012), and CMIP6 (2019). The aim is to quantity how present-day biases in the NH storm tracks and jet streams have evolved with model developments, and to further our understanding of their responses to climate change. The spatial pattern of the present-day biases in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 are similar. However, the magnitude of the biases in the CMIP6 models is substantially lower in the DJF North Atlantic storm track and jet stream than in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. In summer, the biases in the JJA North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks are also much reduced in the CMIP6 models. Despite this, the spatial pattern of the climate change response in the NH storm tracks and jet streams are similar across the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 ensembles. The SSP2-4.5 scenario responses in the CMIP6 models are substantially larger than in the corresponding RCP4.5 CMIP5 models, consistent with the larger climate sensitivities of the CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5.},
author = {Harvey, B. J. and Cook, Peter and Shaffrey, Leonard C. and Schiemann, Reinhard},
doi = {10.1029/2020JD032701},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {e2020JD032701},
title = {{The Response of the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams to Climate Change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Climate Models}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD032701},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{ht19,
abstract = {Straddling the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the Maritime Continent (MC) experiences substantial rainfall variations from diurnal to interannual and longer time scales. In this study, rainfall over Singapore and the wider MC region are analyzed using objectively identified weather regimes. Eight regional-scale weather regimes are derived by k- means clustering of local vertical profiles of zonal and meridional winds, temperature, and specific humidity extracted over Singapore from ERA-Interim data for the period December 1980–November 2014. The composite synoptic flow and rainfall patterns over the region show that the weather regimes correspond to the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) across the equator. For Singapore, the regimes depict seasonal rainfall variability by capturing the alternating dry and wet phases of the prevailing local monsoon and transition periods associated with the regional-scale ITCZ movement. Following previous work, the regimes are used to examine the annual rainfall trend by calculating the contributions due to 1) changes in regime frequency, indicating regional-scale circulation changes, and 2) changes in within-regime precipitation, indicating altered thermodynamic conditions. The overall trend observed at Singapore and many other MC locations is overwhelmingly due to changes in within-regime precipitation. However, the overall trend masks the larger contribution resulting from regime frequency changes as these circulation changes tend to offset one another in reality. In many MC areas (including Singapore), summed rainfall changes due to regime frequency changes outweigh those due to changes in within-regime rainfall, when aggregated in an absolute sense.},
author = {Hassim, Muhammad E. E. and Timbal, Bertrand},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0136.1},
issn = {1558-8424},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {365--384},
title = {{Observed Rainfall Trends over Singapore and the Maritime Continent from the Perspective of Regional-Scale Weather Regimes}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/58/2/jamc-d-18-0136.1.xml},
volume = {58},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hasson2014a,
abstract = {Abstract. In this study, we investigate how PCMDI/CMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs) represent the seasonal properties of the hydrological cycle in four major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong). First, we examine the skill of the GCMs by analysing their performance in simulating the 20th century climate (1961–2000 period) using historical forcing (20c3m experiment), and then we analyse the projected changes for the corresponding 21st and 22nd century climates under the SRESA1B scenario. The CMIP3 GCMs show a varying degree of skill in simulating the basic characteristics of the monsoonal precipitation regimes of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins, while the representation of the hydrological cycle over the Indus Basin is poor in most cases, with a few GCMs not capturing the monsoonal signal at all. While the model outputs feature a remarkable spread for the monsoonal precipitation, a satisfactory representation of the western mid-latitude precipitation regime is instead observed. Similarly, most of the models exhibit a satisfactory agreement for the basin-integrated runoff in winter and spring, while their spread is large for the runoff during the monsoon season. For the future climate scenarios, most models foresee a decrease in the winter P − E over all four basins, while agreement is found on the decrease of the spring P − E over the Indus and Ganges basins only. Such decreases in P − E are mainly due to the decrease in precipitation associated with the western mid-latitude disturbances. Consequently, for the Indus and Ganges basins, the runoff drops during the spring season while it rises during the winter season. Such changes indicate a shift from rather glacial and nival to more pluvial runoff regimes, particularly for the Indus Basin. Furthermore, the rise in the projected runoff, along with the increase in precipitation during summer and autumn, indicates an intensification of the summer monsoon regime for all study basins.},
author = {Hasson, S. and Lucarini, V. and Pascale, S. and B{\"{o}}hner, J.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-5-67-2014},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {67--87},
title = {{Seasonality of the hydrological cycle in major South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/5/67/2014/},
volume = {5},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Haszpra2020a,
abstract = {Abstract. The changes in the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and its precipitation-related teleconnections over the globe under climate change are investigated in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble from 1950 to 2100. For the investigation, a recently developed ensemble-based method, the snapshot empirical orthogonal function (SEOF) analysis, is used. The instantaneous ENSO pattern is defined as the leading mode of the SEOF analysis carried out at a given time instant over the ensemble. The corresponding principal components (PC1s) characterize the ENSO phases. By considering sea surface temperature (SST) regression maps, we find that the largest changes in the typical amplitude of SST fluctuations occur in the June–July–August–September (JJAS) season, in the Ni{\~{n}}o3–Ni{\~{n}}o3.4 (5∘ N–5∘ S, 170–90∘ W; NOAA Climate Prediction Center) region, and the western part of the Pacific Ocean; however, the increase is also considerable along the Equator in December–January–February (DJF). The Ni{\~{n}}o3 amplitude also shows an increase of about 20 {\%} and 10 {\%} in JJAS and DJF, respectively. The strength of the precipitation-related teleconnections of the ENSO is found to be nonstationary, as well. For example, the anticorrelation with precipitation in Australia in JJAS and the positive correlation in central and northern Africa in DJF are predicted to be more pronounced by the end of the 21th century. Half-year-lagged correlations, aiming to predict precipitation conditions from ENSO phases, are also studied. The Australian and Indonesian precipitation and that of the eastern part of Africa in both JJAS and DJF seem to be well predictable based on the ENSO phase, while the southern Indian precipitation relates to the half-year previous ENSO phase only in DJF. The strength of these connections increases, especially from the African region to the Arabian Peninsula.},
author = {Haszpra, T{\'{i}}mea and Herein, M{\'{a}}ty{\'{a}}s and B{\'{o}}dai, Tam{\'{a}}s},
doi = {10.5194/esd-11-267-2020},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {267--280},
title = {{Investigating ENSO and its teleconnections under climate change in an ensemble view – a new perspective}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/267/2020/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hattermann2018,
abstract = {Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.},
author = {Hattermann, F F and Vetter, T and Breuer, L and Su, Buda and Daggupati, P and Donnelly, C and Fekete, B and Fl{\"{o}}rke, F and Gosling, S N and Hoffmann, P and Liersch, S and Masaki, Y and Motovilov, Y and M{\"{u}}ller, C and Samaniego, L and Stacke, T and Wada, Y and Yang, T and Krysnaova, V},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {015006},
title = {{Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study}},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Haug2003,
abstract = {In the anoxic Cariaco Basin of the southern Caribbean, the bulk titanium content of undisturbed sediment reflects variations in riverine input and the hydrological cycle over northern tropical South America. A seasonally resolved record of titanium shows that the collapse of Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period occurred during an extended regional dry period, punctuated by more intense multiyear droughts centered at approximately 810, 860, and 910 A.D. These new data suggest that a century-scale decline in rainfall put a general strain on resources in the region, which was then exacerbated by abrupt drought events, contributing to the social stresses that led to the Maya demise.},
author = {Haug, Gerald H. and Günther, Detlef and Peterson, Larry C. and Sigman, Daniel M. and Hughen, Konrad A. and Aeschlimann, Beat},
doi = {10.1126/science.1080444},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {mar},
number = {5613},
pages = {1731--1735},
title = {{Climate and the Collapse of Maya Civilization}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1080444},
volume = {299},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Havel18HESS,
abstract = {Abstract. This study aims to understand the hydrologic responses to wildfires in mountainous regions at various spatial scales. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to evaluate the hydrologic responses of the upper Cache la Poudre Watershed in Colorado to the 2012 High Park and Hewlett wildfire events. A baseline SWAT model was established to simulate the hydrology of the study area between the years 2000 and 2014. A procedure involving land use and curve number updating was implemented to assess the effects of wildfires. Application of the proposed procedure provides the ability to simulate the hydrologic response to wildfires seamlessly through mimicking the dynamic of the changes due to wildfires. The wildfire effects on curve numbers were determined comparing the probability distribution of curve numbers after calibrating the model for pre- and post-wildfire conditions. Daily calibration and testing of the model produced “very good” results. No-wildfire and wildfire scenarios were created and compared to quantify changes in average annual total runoff volume, water budgets, and full streamflow statistics at different spatial scales. At the watershed scale, wildfire conditions showed little impact on the hydrologic responses. However, a runoff increase up to 75 {\%} was observed between the scenarios in sub-watersheds with high burn intensity. Generally, higher surface runoff and decreased subsurface flow were observed under post-wildfire conditions. Flow duration curves developed for burned sub-watersheds using full streamflow statistics showed that less frequent streamflows become greater in magnitude. A linear regression model was developed to assess the relationship between percent burned area and runoff increase in Cache la Poudre Watershed. A strong (R2 {\textgreater} 0.8) and significant (p {\textless} 0.001) positive correlation was determined between runoff increase and percentage of burned area upstream. This study showed that the effects of wildfires on hydrology of a watershed are scale-dependent. Also, using full streamflow statistics through application of flow duration curves revealed that the wildfires had a higher effect on peak flows, which may increase the risk of flash floods in post-wildfire conditions.},
author = {Havel, Aaron and Tasdighi, Ali and Arabi, Mazdak},
doi = {10.5194/hess-22-2527-2018},
issn = {16077938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {4},
pages = {2527--2550},
title = {{Assessing the hydrologic response to wildfires in mountainous regions}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/2527/2018/},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{hsnbwtcc18,
author = {Haverd, V and Smith, B and Nieradzik, L and Briggs, P R and Woodgate, W and Trudinger, C M and Canadell, J G and Cuntz, M},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
pages = {2995--3026},
title = {{A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4601) incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography, and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of photosynthesis}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2995-2018},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hawcroft2016,
abstract = {Extratropical cyclones produce the majority of precipitation in many regions of the extratropics. This study evaluates the ability of a climate model, HiGEM, to reproduce the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones. The model is evaluated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis and GPCP dataset. The analysis employs a cyclone centred compositing technique, evaluates composites across a range of geographical areas and cyclone intensities and also investigates the ability of the model to reproduce the climatological distribution of cyclone associated precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere. Using this phenomena centred approach provides an ability to identify the processes which are responsible for climatological biases in the model. Composite precipitation intensities are found to be comparable when all cyclones across the Northern Hemisphere are included. When the cyclones are filtered by region or intensity, differences are found, in particular, HiGEM produces too much precipitation in its most intense cyclones relative to ERA-Interim and GPCP. Biases in the climatological distribution of cyclone associated precipitation are also found, with biases around the storm track regions associated with both the number of cyclones in HiGEM and also their average precipitation intensity. These results have implications for the reliability of future projections of extratropical precipitation from the model.},
author = {Hawcroft, Matthew K. and Shaffrey, Len C. and Hodges, Kevin I. and Dacre, Helen F.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z},
isbn = {4411837870},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {679--695},
title = {{Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones?}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hawcroft2018ERL,
abstract = {For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in spite of this uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to warming, by analysing the behaviour of the storms (or extratropical cyclones) themselves, projections of change in the number of the most intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are substantial and consistent across models. In particular, we show large increases in the frequency of extreme extratropical cyclones (those above the present day 99th percentile of precipitation intensity) by the end of the century. In both Europe and North America, these intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are projected to more than triple in number by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are mitigated. Such changes in extratropical cyclone behaviour may have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are responsible for many large-scale flooding events, and associated severe economic losses, in these regions.},
author = {Hawcroft, Matt and Walsh, Ella and Hodges, Kevin and Zappa, Giuseppe},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,climate,climate change,climate impacts,climate models},
month = {nov},
number = {12},
pages = {124006},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2Faaed59},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hawkins2012b,
abstract = {The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Here we present a methodology for estimating ToE for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of ToE for surface air temperature (SAT) based on the CMIP3 global climate models. Consistent with previous studies we show that the median ToE occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. We also show that the median ToE in the Arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. A key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in ToE that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. The uncertainty in ToE is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. Alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median ToE (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. The SRES B1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in ToE in some regions. Our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss.},
author = {Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.},
doi = {10.1029/2011GL050087},
isbn = {00948276},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {L01702},
pmid = {916094050},
title = {{Time of emergence of climate signals}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011GL050087},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Hawkins2011,
abstract = {We separate and quantify the sources of$\backslash$r$\backslash$nuncertainty in projections of regional (*2,500 km) precipitation$\backslash$r$\backslash$nchanges for the twenty-first century using the$\backslash$r$\backslash$nCMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison$\backslash$r$\backslash$nwith a similar analysis for regional temperature changes.$\backslash$r$\backslash$nFor decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation,$\backslash$r$\backslash$ninternal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions$\backslash$r$\backslash$nof the first decade everywhere, and for many regions$\backslash$r$\backslash$nuntil the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally$\backslash$r$\backslash$nthe dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times.$\backslash$r$\backslash$nScenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for$\backslash$r$\backslash$nall regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles$\backslash$r$\backslash$nat the end of the century. For the global mean, model$\backslash$r$\backslash$nuncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise$\backslash$r$\backslash$nratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the$\backslash$r$\backslash$npoles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far$\backslash$r$\backslash$nlower than for temperature projections. In particular, the$\backslash$r$\backslash$ntropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest$\backslash$r$\backslash$nfor precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N' by$\backslash$r$\backslash$nassuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero,$\backslash$r$\backslash$nand show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N$\backslash$r$\backslash$nare fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few$\backslash$r$\backslash$ndecades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions$\backslash$r$\backslash$nwill need to be made in the context of high uncertainty$\backslash$r$\backslash$nconcerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential$\backslash$r$\backslash$nto narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is$\backslash$r$\backslash$nfar greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current$\backslash$r$\backslash$ngeneration of models; the real signal may be larger or$\backslash$r$\backslash$nsmaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that$\backslash$r$\backslash$nthe S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant$\backslash$r$\backslash$nfor many climate impacts, may be larger than for the$\backslash$r$\backslash$nseasonal mean precipitation considered here.},
author = {Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6},
isbn = {0930-7575},
issn = {09307575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Precipitation,Uncertainty},
number = {1},
pages = {407--418},
title = {{The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change}},
volume = {37},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Hawkins2020,
abstract = {Changes in climate are usually considered in terms of trends or differences over time. However, for many impacts requiring adaptation, it is the amplitude of the change relative to the local amplitude of climate variability which is more relevant. Here, we develop the concept of “signal‐to‐noise” in observations of local temperature, highlighting that many regions are already experiencing a climate which would be “unknown” by late 19th century standards. The emergence of observed temperature changes over both land and ocean is clearest in tropical regions, in contrast to the regions of largest change which are in the northern extratropics—broadly consistent with climate model simulations. Significant increases and decreases in rainfall have also already emerged in different regions with the United Kingdom experiencing a shift toward more extreme rainfall events, a signal which is emerging more clearly in some places than the changes in mean rainfall.},
author = {Hawkins, E. and Frame, D. and Harrington, L. and Joshi, M. and King, A. and Rojas, M. and Sutton, R.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086259},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {e2019GL086259},
title = {{Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL086259},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{doi:10.1111/gwat.12965,
abstract = {Abstract Groundwater discharge in alpine headwaters sustains baseflow in rivers originating in mountain ranges of the world, which is critically important for aquatic habitats, run-of-river hydropower generation, and downstream water supply. Groundwater storage in alpine watersheds was long considered negligible, but recent field-based studies have shown that aquifers are ubiquitous in the alpine zone with no soil and vegetation. Talus, moraine, and rock glacier aquifers are common in many alpine regions of the world, although bedrock aquifers occur in some geological settings. Alpine aquifers consisting of coarse sediments have a fast recession of discharge after the recharge season (e.g., snowmelt) or rainfall events, followed by a slow recession that sustains discharge over a long period. The two-phase recession is likely controlled by the internal structure of the aquifers. Spatial extent and distribution of individual aquifers determine the groundwater storage-discharge characteristics in first- and second-order watersheds in the alpine zone, which in turn govern baseflow characteristics in major rivers. Similar alpine landforms appear to have similar hydrogeological characteristics in many mountain ranges across the world, suggesting that a common conceptual framework can be used to understand alpine aquifers based on geological and geomorphological settings. Such a framework will be useful for parameterizing storage-discharge characteristics in large river hydrological models.},
author = {Hayashi, Masaki},
doi = {10.1111/gwat.12965},
journal = {Groundwater},
number = {4},
pages = {498--510},
title = {{Alpine Hydrogeology: The Critical Role of Groundwater in Sourcing the Headwaters of the World}},
url = {https://ngwa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gwat.12965},
volume = {58},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Haywood2013NClim,
abstract = {The Sahelian drought of the 1970s–1990s was one of the largest humanitarian disasters of the past 50 years, causing up to 250,000 deaths and creating 10 million refugees1. It has been attributed to natural variability2–5, over- grazing6 and the impact of industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide7,8. Each mechanism can influence the Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, which is strongly coupled to Sahelian precipitation2,3. We suggest that sporadic volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere also strongly influence this gradient and cause Sahelian drought. Using de-trended observations from 1900 to 2010, we show that three of the four driest Sahelian summers were preceded by substantial Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions. We use a state-of- the-art coupled global atmosphere–ocean model to simulate both episodic volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by continuous deliberate injection into the stratosphere. In either case, large asymmetric stratospheric aerosol loadings concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere are a harbinger of Sahelian drought whereas those concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere induce a greening of the Sahel. Further studies of the detailed regional impacts on the Sahel and other vulnerable areas are required to inform policymakers in developing careful consensual global governance before any practical solar radiation management geoengineering scheme is implemented.},
author = {Haywood, Jim M. and Jones, Andy and Bellouin, Nicolas and Stephenson, David},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1857},
isbn = {doi:10.1038/nclimate1857},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric science,Climate sciences,Environmental social sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {7},
pages = {660--665},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1857},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Haywood2013,
abstract = {Abstract. Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.},
author = {Haywood, A. M. and Hill, D. J. and Dolan, A. M. and Otto-Bliesner, B. L. and Bragg, F. and Chan, W.-L. and Chandler, M. A. and Contoux, C. and Dowsett, H. J. and Jost, A. and Kamae, Y. and Lohmann, G. and Lunt, D. J. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Pickering, S. J. and Ramstein, G. and Rosenbloom, N. A. and Salzmann, U. and Sohl, L. and Stepanek, C. and Ueda, H. and Yan, Q. and Zhang, Z.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-9-191-2013},
isbn = {1814-9324},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {191--209},
title = {{Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/191/2013/},
volume = {9},
year = {2013}
}
@article{He2017,
author = {He, Chao and Wu, Bo and Zou, Liwei and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0529.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6465--6479},
title = {{Responses of the Summertime Subtropical Anticyclones to Global Warming}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0529.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{He2018b,
abstract = {The driving of tropical precipitation by the variability of the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) plays a critical role in the atmospheric general circulation. To assess the precipitation sensitivity to SST variability, it is necessary to observe and understand the relationship between precipitation and SST. However, the precipitation-SST relationships from any coupled atmosphere-ocean system can be difficult to interpret given the challenge of disentangling the SST-forced atmospheric response and the atmospheric intrinsic variability. This study demonstrates that the two components can be isolated using uncoupled atmosphere-only simulations, which extract the former when driven by time-varying SSTs and the latter when driven by climatological SSTs. With a simple framework that linearly combines the two types of uncoupled simulations, the coupled precipitation-SST relationships are successfully reproduced. Such a framework can be a useful tool for quantitatively diagnosing tropical air-sea interactions. The precipitation sensitivity to SST variability is investigated with the use of uncoupled simulations with prescribed SST anomalies, where the influence of atmospheric intrinsic variability on SST is deactivated. Through a focus on local precipitation-SST relationships, the precipitation sensitivity to local SST variability is determined to be predominantly controlled by the local background SST. In addition, the strength of the precipitation response increases monotonically with the local background SST, with a very sharp growth at high SSTs. These findings are supported by basic principles of moist static stability, from which a simple formula for precipitation sensitivity to local SST variability is derived.},
author = {He, Jie and Johnson, Nathaniel C. and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Kirtman, Ben and Wittenberg, Andrew T. and Sturm, Stephan},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0262.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Convection,Coupled models,Precipitation,Sea surface temperature,Tropical variability},
number = {22},
pages = {9225--9238},
title = {{Precipitation sensitivity to local variations in tropical sea surface temperature}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{He2015a,
abstract = {AbstractThere is a lack of consensus on the physical mechanisms that drive the anthropogenic weakening of tropical circulation. This study investigates the relative roles of direct CO2 forcing, mean SST warming, and the pattern of SST change on the weakening of the tropical circulation using an ensemble of AMIP and aquaplanet simulations. In terms of the mean weakening of the tropical circulation, the SST warming dominates over the direct CO2 forcing through its control over the tropical mean hydrological cycle and tropospheric stratification. In terms of the spatial pattern of circulation weakening, however, the three forcing agents are all important contributors, especially over the ocean. The increasing CO2 weakens convection over ocean directly by stabilizing the lower troposphere and indirectly via the land–sea warming contrast. The mean SST warming drives strong weakening over the centers and edges of convective zones. The pattern of SST warming plays a crucial role on the spatial pattern of circula...},
author = {He, Jie and Soden, Brian J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0205.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Climate change,Climate models,Convection,Hydrologic cycle,Walker circulation},
number = {22},
pages = {8728--8742},
title = {{Anthropogenic weakening of the tropical circulation: The relative roles of direct CO2 forcing and sea surface temperature change}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{He2016,
abstract = {Projected decreases in subtropical rainfall have previously been attributed to enhanced moisture transport or atmospheric circulation changes. New research shows that neither is the key mechanism, and instead greater land–sea temperature contrast in response to direct radiative forcing dominates.},
author = {He, Jie and Soden, Brian J.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3157},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Attribution,Hydrology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {53--57},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{A re-examination of the projected subtropical precipitation decline}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3157},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Heede2020a,
abstract = {Different oceanic and atmospheric mechanisms have been proposed to describe the response of the tropical Pacific to global warming, yet large uncertainties persist on their relative importance and potential interaction. Here, we use idealized experiments forced with a wide range of both abrupt and gradual CO2 increases in a coupled climate model (CESM) together with a simplified box model to explore the interaction between, and time scales of, different mechanisms driving Walker circulation changes. We find a robust transient response to CO2 forcing across all simulations, lasting between 20 and 100 years, depending on how abruptly the system is perturbed. This initial response is characterized by the strengthening of the Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient and a westward shift of the Walker cell. In contrast, the equilibrium response, emerging after 50-100 years, is characterized by a warmer cold tongue, reduced zonal winds, and a weaker Walker cell. The magnitude of the equilibrium response in the fully coupled model is set primarily by enhanced extratropical warming and weaker oceanic subtropical cells, reducing the supply of cold water to equatorial upwelling. In contrast, in the slab ocean simulations, the weakening of the Walker cell is more modest and driven by differential evaporative cooling along the equator. The ''weaker Walker'' mechanism implied by atmospheric energetics is also observed for the midtroposphere vertical velocity, but its surface manifestation is not robust. Correctly diagnosing the balance between these transient and equilibrium responses will improve understanding of ongoing and future climate change in the tropical Pacific.},
author = {Heede, Ulla K. and Fedorov, Alexey V. and Burls, Natalie J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0690.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {14},
pages = {6101--6118},
title = {{Time Scales and Mechanisms for the Tropical Pacific Response to Global Warming: A Tug of War between the Ocean Thermostat and Weaker Walker}},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Heerspink2020,
abstract = {Study region The study region is the Amazon River Basin, which controls globally important water and energy fluxes. Study focus In the face of a changing climate and landscape, it is critical that we understand how, where, and why surface water resources are changing. Specifically, we must consider holistic changes to the water cycle to understand how water resources are affected by climate change and landscape alterations. In this study, we investigate changes to all major components of the water balance across the entire Amazon Basin. We seek to understand: 1) how changes to land cover and precipitation affect streamflow, 2) how these factors affect evapotranspiration and groundwater storage water balance components, and 3) how changes to the water balance partitioning may in turn alter streamflows. New hydrological insights We find significant changes to streamflow of ±9.5 mm/yr on average across the Amazon Basin. Streamflow alterations show a spatially variable pattern, with increasing discharge in the northern and western portions of the basin, and decreasing discharge in the southern and eastern basin. We also observe significant changes in evapotranspiration of ±29 mm/yr and groundwater storage increases of 7.1 mm/yr. Together, these results indicate that studies of streamflow change in the Amazon should consider changes to the whole water budget, including understudied aspects of groundwater storage across the Basin.},
author = {Heerspink, Brent Porter and Kendall, Anthony D and Coe, Michael T and Hyndman, David W},
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100755},
issn = {2214-5818},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
keywords = {Amazon River,Climate change,Deforestation,Evapotranspiration,Groundwater storage,Streamflow},
pages = {100755},
title = {{Trends in streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater storage across the Amazon Basin linked to changing precipitation and land cover}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581820302299},
volume = {32},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hegerl2015,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2015 American Meteorological Society.Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining longterm changes. In situ networks provide long time series over land, but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their longterm stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help crossvalidate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols and because of the large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.},
author = {Hegerl, G.C. and Black, E. and Allan, R.P. and Ingram, W.J. and Polson, D. and Trenberth, K.E. and Chadwick, R.S. and Arkin, P.A. and Sarojini, B.B. and Becker, A. and Dai, A. and Durack, P.J. and Easterling, D. and Fowler, H.J. and Kendon, E.J. and Huffman, G.J. and Liu, C. and Marsh, R. and New, M. and Osborn, T.J. and Skliris, N. and Stott, P.A. and Vidale, P.-L. and Wijffels, S.E. and Wilcox, L.J. and Willett, K.M. and Zhang, X. and Et al. and Black, E. and Allan, R.P. and Ingram, W.J. and Polson, D. and Trenberth, K.E. and Chadwick, R.S. and Arkin, P.A. and Sarojini, B.B. and Becker, A. and Dai, A. and Durack, P.J. and Easterling, D. and Fowler, H.J. and Kendon, E.J. and Huffman, G.J. and Liu, C. and Marsh, R. and New, M. and Osborn, T.J. and Skliris, N. and Stott, P.A. and Vidale, P.-L. and Wijffels, S.E. and Wilcox, L.J. and Willett, K.M. and Zhang, X. and Et al. and Black, E. and Allan, R.P. and Ingram, W.J. and Polson, D. and Trenberth, K.E. and Chadwick, R.S. and Arkin, P.A. and Sarojini, B.B. and Becker, A. and Dai, A. and Durack, P.J. and Easterling, D. and Fowler, H.J. and Kendon, E.J. and Huffman, G.J. and Liu, C. and Marsh, R. and New, M. and Osborn, T.J. and Skliris, N. and Stott, P.A. and Vidale, P.-L. and Wijffels, S.E. and Wilcox, L.J. and Willett, K.M. and Zhang, X. and Et al. and Black, E. and Allan, R.P. and Ingram, W.J. and Polson, D. and Trenberth, K.E. and Chadwick, R.S. and Arkin, P.A. and Sarojini, B.B. and Becker, A. and Dai, A. and Durack, P.J. and Easterling, D. and Fowler, H.J. and Kendon, E.J. and Huffman, G.J. and Liu, C. and Marsh, R. and New, M. and Osborn, T.J. and Skliris, N. and Stott, P.A. and Vidale, P.-L. and Wijffels, S.E. and Wilcox, L.J. and Willett, K.M. and Zhang, X. and Et al. and Black, E. and Allan, R.P. and Ingram, W.J. and Polson, D. and Trenberth, K.E. and Chadwick, R.S. and Arkin, P.A. and Sarojini, B.B. and Becker, A. and Dai, A. and Durack, P.J. and Easterling, D. and Fowler, H.J. and Kendon, E.J. and Huffman, G.J. and Liu, C. and Marsh, R. and New, M. and Osborn, T.J. and Skliris, N. and Stott, P.A. and Vidale, P.-L. and Wijffels, S.E. and Wilcox, L.J. and Willett, K.M. and Zhang, X. and Et al. and Black, E. and Allan, R.P. and Ingram, W.J. and Polson, D. and Trenberth, K.E. and Chadwick, R.S. and Arkin, P.A. and Sarojini, B.B. and Becker, A. and Dai, A. and Durack, P.J. and Easterling, D. and Fowler, H.J. and Kendon, E.J. and Huffman, G.J. and Liu, C. and Marsh, R. and New, M. and Osborn, T.J. and Skliris, N. and Stott, P.A. and Vidale, P.-L. and Wijffels, S.E. and Wilcox, L.J. and Willett, K.M. and Zhang, X. and Et al. and Black, E. and Allan, R.P. and Ingram, W.J. and Polson, D. and Trenberth, K.E. and Chadwick, R.S. and Arkin, P.A. and Sarojini, B.B. and Becker, A. and Dai, A. and Durack, P.J. and Easterling, D. and Fowler, H.J. and Kendon, E.J. and Huffman, G.J. and Liu, C. and Marsh, R. and New, M. and Osborn, T.J. and Skliris, N. and Stott, P.A. and Vidale, P.-L. and Wijffels, S.E. and Wilcox, L.J. and Willett, K.M. and Zhang, X.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {7},
pages = {1097--1115},
title = {{Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle}},
volume = {96},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hein2018,
author = {Hein, Annette and Condon, Laura and Maxwell, Reed},
doi = {10.5194/hess-23-1931-2019},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1931--1950},
title = {{Evaluating the relative importance of precipitation, temperature and land-cover change in the hydrologic response to extreme meteorological drought conditions over the North American High Plains}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/23/1931/2019/},
volume = {23},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Heinzeller2016a,
author = {Heinzeller, Dominikus and Junkermann, Wolfgang and Kunstmann, Harald},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0082.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {8471--8493},
title = {{Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions and Rainfall Decline in Southwestern Australia: Coincidence or Causality?}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0082.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Held2006,
abstract = {Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lower-tropospheric water vapor.},
author = {Held, Isaac M and Soden, Brian J},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI3990.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {1520-0442},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {5686--5699},
title = {{Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI3990.1},
volume = {19},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Herger2015,
author = {Herger, Nadja and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL063569},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3486--3494},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Improved pattern scaling approaches for the use in climate impact studies}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL063569},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{hdd15,
abstract = {Recent years (i.e., 2007–2014) have exhibited large declines in snow cover extent (SCE) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), marked by earlier snowmelt in the springtime. In Northern latitudes, the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) is most pronounced in the spring and may be contributing to these decreasing trends in SCE. Rising surface air temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns could also vary the declining trends in SCE depending on latitude and elevation. Previous trend analyses of NH SCE are extended here to cover the period 1 October 1971 to 30 September 2014 using observed data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration snow chart climate data record. Trends in snow coverage (significant when p {\textless} 0.05) with latitude and elevation are investigated using the Mann–Kendall test. Over the 43 year period, strong polar amplification of negative trends in snow cover are observed. The majority of statistically significant negative trends are found in the mid- to high-latitudes, reaching a maximum reduction at 75.5°N. There is also elevation dependence of SCE over time as statistically significant negative trends occur at most elevations, with the strongest observed at 3950 m a.s.l. These significant negative trends exhibited in the mid- to high-latitudes and mid- to high-elevations provide evidence of polar amplification and elevation dependence of trends in snow cover in a warming climate, suggesting a leading role of the SAF on the recent retreat of NH snow cover.},
author = {Hern{\'{a}}ndez-Henr{\'{i}}quez, Marco A. and D{\'{e}}ry, Stephen J. and Derksen, Chris},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044010},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {044010},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Polar amplification and elevation-dependence in trends of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent, 1971–2014}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044010},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hessl2018,
author = {Hessl, Amy E and Anchukaitis, Kevin J and Jelsema, Casey and Cook, Benjamin and Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa and Leland, Caroline and Nachin, Baatarbileg and Pederson, Neil and Tian, Hanqin and Hayles, Laia Andreu},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1701832},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {e1701832},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Past and future drought in Mongolia}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1701832},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{hewson2013exploring,
author = {Hewson, Michael and McGowan, Hamish and Phinn, Stuart and Peckham, Steven and Grell, Georg},
doi = {10.3390/cli1030120},
issn = {2225-1154},
journal = {Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {3},
pages = {120--147},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Exploring Aerosol Effects on Rainfall for Brisbane, Australia}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/1/3/120},
volume = {1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hill2017,
author = {Hill, Spencer A. and Ming, Yi and Held, Isaac M. and Zhao, Ming},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0785.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {5637--5660},
title = {{A Moist Static Energy Budget–Based Analysis of the Sahel Rainfall Response to Uniform Oceanic Warming}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0785.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{HIRASAWA2020,
abstract = {Sahel precipitation has undergone substantial multidecadal time scale changes during the twentieth century that have had severe impacts on the region's population. Using initial-condition large ensembles (LE) of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations from two institutions, forced multidecadal variability is found in which Sahel precipitation declines from the 1950s to 1970s and then recovers from the 1970s to 2000s. This forced variability has similar timing to, but considerably smaller magnitude than, observed Sahel precipitation variability. Isolating the response using single forcing simulations within the LEs reveals that anthropogenic aerosols (AA) are the primary driver of this forced variability. The roles of the direct-atmospheric and the ocean-mediated atmospheric responses toAAforcing are determined with the atmosphere-land GCM (AGCM) components of the LE coupled GCMs. The direct-atmospheric response arises from changes to aerosol and precursor emissions with unchanged oceanic boundary conditions while the ocean-mediated response arises from changes to AA-forced sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations diagnosed from the AAforced LE. In the AGCMs studied here, the direct-atmospheric response dominates the AA-forced 1970s 2 1950s Sahel drying. On the other hand, the 2000s 2 1970s wetting is mainly driven by the ocean-mediated effect, with some direct atmospheric contribution. Although the responses show differences, there is qualitative agreement between the AGCMs regarding the roles of the direct-atmospheric and ocean-mediated responses. Since these effects often compete and show nonlinearity, the model dependence of these effects and their role in the net aerosol-forced response of Sahel precipitation need to be carefully accounted for in future model analysis.},
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Hirasawa, Haruki and Kushner, Paul J. and Sigmond, MIichael and Fyfe, John and Deser, Clara},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0829.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Aerosols,Africa,Atmosphere-ocean interaction,General circulation models,Monsoons,Multidecadal variability},
language = {English},
number = {23},
pages = {10187--10204},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Anthropogenic aerosols dominate forced multidecadal sahel precipitation change through distinct atmospheric and oceanic drivers}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/23/jcliD190829.xml},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hirons2018,
author = {Hirons, Linda and Turner, Andrew},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0804.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6611--6631},
title = {{The Impact of Indian Ocean Mean-State Biases in Climate Models on the Representation of the East African Short Rains}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0804.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hock2019a,
abstract = {Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 ± 7{\%} (RCP2.6) to 36 ± 11{\%} (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 ± 25 and 200 ± 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of {\textgreater}3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant. Differences in glacier mass projections among the models are attributed to differences in model physics, calibration and downscaling procedures, initial ice volumes and varying ensembles of forcing GCMs.},
author = {Hock, Regine and Bliss, Andrew and Marzeion, Ben and Giesen, Rianne H. and Hirabayashi, Yukiko and Huss, Matthias and Radi{\'{c}}, Valentina and Slangen, Aim{\'{e}}e B. A.},
doi = {10.1017/jog.2019.22},
issn = {0022-1430},
journal = {Journal of Glaciology},
month = {jun},
number = {251},
pages = {453--467},
title = {{GlacierMIP – A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143019000224/type/journal{\_}article},
volume = {65},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Hock2019b,
author = {Hock, R. and Rasul, G. and Adler, C. and C{\'{a}}ceres, B. and Gruber, S. and Hirabayashi, Y. and Jackson, M. and K{\"{a}}{\"{a}}b, A. and Kang, S. and Kutuzov, S. and Milner, Al. and Molau, U. and Morin, S. and Orlove, B. and Steltzer, H.},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
chapter = {2},
editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {131--202},
title = {{High Mountain Areas}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hodges2011,
abstract = {Extratropical cyclones are identified and compared using data from four recent reanalyses for the winter periods in both hemispheres. Results show the largest differences occur between the older lower resolution 25-yr Japanese Reanalysis (JRA-25) when compared with the newer high resolution reanalyses, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Spatial differences between the newest reanalyses are small in both hemispheres and generally not significant except in some common regions associated with cyclogenesis close to orography. Differences in the cyclone maximum intensitites are generally related to spatial resolution except in the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA MERRA), which has larger intensities for several different measures. Matching storms between reanalyses shows the number matched between the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and the other reanalyses is similar in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In the SH the number matched between JRA-25 and ERAInterim is lower than in the NH; however, for NASA MERRA and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP CFSR), the number matched is similar to the NH. The mean separation of the identically same cyclones is typically less than 28 geodesic in both hemispheres for the latest reanalyses, whereas JRA-25 compared with the other reanalyses has a broader distribution in the SH, indicating greater uncertainty. The instantaneous intensity differences for matched storms shows narrow distributions for pressure, while for winds and vorticity the distributions are much broader, indicating larger uncertainty typical of smaller-scale fields. Composite cyclone diagnostics show that cyclones are very similar between the reanalyses, with differences being related to the intensities, consistent with the intensity results. Overall, results show NH cyclones correspond well between reanalyses, with a significant improvement in the SH for the latest reanalyses, indicating a convergence between reanalyses for cyclone properties. {\textcopyright} 2011 American Meteorological Society.},
author = {Hodges, K. I. and Lee, R. W. and Bengtsson, L.},
doi = {10.1175/2011JCLI4097.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Cyclones,Extratropical cyclones,Model comparison,Northern Hemisphere,Orographic effects,Southern Hemisphere},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {4888--4906},
title = {{A comparison of extratropical cyclones in recent reanalyses ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR, and JRA-25}},
volume = {24},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Hodnebrog2019c,
abstract = {While daily extreme precipitation intensities increase with global warming on average at approximately the same rate as the availability of water vapor (∼7{\%}/°C), a debated topic is whether sub-daily extremes increase more. Modelling at convection-permitting scales has been deemed necessary to reproduce extreme summer precipitation at local scale. Here we analyze multi-model ensembles and apply a 3 km horizontal resolution model over four regions across Europe (S. Norway, Denmark, Benelux and Albania) and find very good agreement with observed daily and hourly summer precipitation extremes. Projections show that daily extreme precipitation intensifies compared to the mean in all regions and across a wide range of models and resolutions. Hourly and 10 min extremes intensify at a higher rate in nearly all regions. Unlike most recent studies, we do not find sub-daily precipitation extremes increasing much more than 7{\%}/°C, even for sub-hourly extremes, but this may be due to robust summer drying over large parts of Europe. However, the absolute strongest local daily precipitation event in a 20 year period will increase by 10{\%}–20{\%}/°C. At the same time, model projections strongly indicate that summer drying will be more pronounced for extremely dry years.},
annote = {sub-daily and sub-hourly precipitation extremes do not increase much above 7{\%}/K in convection permitting experiments for the European summer season},
author = {Hodnebrog, {\O} and Marelle, L and Alterskj{\ae}r, K and Wood, R R and Ludwig, R and Fischer, E M and Richardson, T B and Forster, P M and Sillmann, J and Myhre, G},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab549c},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {12},
pages = {124050},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Intensification of summer precipitation with shorter time-scales in Europe}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab549c},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hodnebrog2019b,
author = {Hodnebrog, {\O}ivind and Myhre, Gunnar and Samset, Bj{\o}rn H and Alterskj{\ae}r, Kari and Andrews, Timothy and Boucher, Olivier and Faluvegi, Gregory and Fl{\"{a}}schner, Dagmar and Forster, Piers M and Kasoar, Matthew and Kirkev{\aa}g, Alf and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Olivi{\'{e}}, Dirk and Richardson, Thomas B and Shawki, Dilshad and Shindell, Drew and Shine, Keith P and Stier, Philip and Takemura, Toshihiko and Voulgarakis, Apostolos and Watson-Parris, Duncan},
doi = {10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {12887--12899},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/12887/2019/},
volume = {19},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{IPCC2018,
author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, O. and Jacob, D. and Taylor, M. and Bindi, M. and Brown, S. and Camilloni, I. and Diedhiou, A. and Djalante, R. and Ebi, K.L. and Engelbrecht, F. and Guiot, J. and Hijioka, Y. and Mehrotra, S. and Payne, A. and Seneviratne, S.I. I. and Thomas, A. and Warren, R. and Zhou, G. and {R. Djalante}, K. Ebi and Engelbrecht, F. and Guiot, J. and Hijioka, Y. and Mehrotra, S. and Payne, A. and Seneviratne, S.I. I. and Thomas, A. and Warren, R. and Zhou., G. and Djalante, R. and Ebi, K.L. and Engelbrecht, F. and Guiot, J. and Hijioka, Y. and Mehrotra, S. and Payne, A. and Seneviratne, S.I. I. and Thomas, A. and Warren, R. and Zhou, G. and {R. Djalante}, K. Ebi and Engelbrecht, F. and Guiot, J. and Hijioka, Y. and Mehrotra, S. and Payne, A. and Seneviratne, S.I. I. and Thomas, A. and Warren, R. and Zhou., G. and Djalante, R. and Ebi, K.L. and Engelbrecht, F. and Guiot, J. and Hijioka, Y. and Mehrotra, S. and Payne, A. and Seneviratne, S.I. I. and Thomas, A. and Warren, R. and Zhou, G.},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change.},
chapter = {3},
editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P.R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and P{\'{e}}an, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M.I. and Lonnoy, E. and Maycock, T. and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.},
pages = {175--311},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems}},
type = {Book Section},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hoell2017,
author = {Hoell, Andrew and Funk, Chris and Zinke, Jens and Harrison, Laura},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3220-6},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2529--2540},
title = {{Modulation of the Southern Africa precipitation response to the El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation by the subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3220-6},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hoell2018,
author = {Hoell, Andrew and Cheng, Linyin},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3801-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3219--3236},
title = {{Austral summer Southern Africa precipitation extremes forced by the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern oscillation and the subtropical Indian Ocean dipole}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3801-z},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hoell2017,
author = {Hoell, Andrew and Hoerling, Martin and Eischeid, Jon and Quan, Xiao-Wei and Liebmann, Brant},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0558.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {1939--1957},
title = {{Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0558.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Hoell2016,
abstract = {The dynamics and recent and possible future changes of the June–September rainfall associated with the North American Monsoon (NAM) are reviewed in this chapter. Our analysis as well as previous analyses of the trend in June–September precipitation from 1948 until 2010 indicate significant precipitation increases over New Mexico and the core NAM region, and significant precipitation decreases over southwest Mexico. The trends in June–September precipitation have been forced by anomalous cyclonic circulation centered at 15°N latitude over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The anomalous cyclonic circulation is responsible for changes in the flux of moisture and the divergence of moisture flux within the core NAM region. Future climate projections using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), support the observed analyses of a later shift in the monsoon season in the presence of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere under the RCP8.5 scenario. The CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario predict significant NAM-related rainfall decreases during June and July and predict significant NAM-related rainfall increases during September and October.},
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Hoell, Andrew and Funk, Chris and Barlow, Mathew and Shukla, Shraddhanand},
booktitle = {The Monsoons and Climate Change},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-21650-8_7},
editor = {de Carvalho, Leila Maria V{\'{e}}spoli and Jones, Charles},
pages = {149--162},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Recent and Possible Future Variations in the North American Monsoon}},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hoerling2012,
abstract = {The land area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea has experienced 10 of the 12 driest winters since 1902 in just the last 20 years. A change in wintertime Mediterranean precipitation toward drier conditions has likely occurred over 1902–2010 whose magnitude cannot be reconciled with internal variability alone. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are key attributable factors for this increased drying, though the external signal explains only half of the drying magnitude. Furthermore, sea surface temperature (SST) forcing during 1902–2010 likely played an important role in the observed Mediterranean drying, and the externally forced drying signal likely also occurs through an SST change signal.},
author = {Hoerling, Martin and Eischeid, Jon and Perlwitz, Judith and Quan, Xiaowei and Zhang, Tao and Pegion, Philip},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2146--2161},
title = {{On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1},
volume = {25},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Hohenegger2018,
abstract = {Convection-permitting simulations on an idealized land planet are performed to understand whether soil moisture acts to support or impede the organization of convection. Initially, shallow circulations driven by differential radiative cooling induce a self-aggregation of the convection into a single band, as has become familiar from simulations over idealized sea surfaces. With time, however, the drying of the nonprecipitating region induces a reversal of the shallow circulation, drawing the flow at low levels from the precipitating to the nonprecipitating region. This causes the precipitating convection to move over the dry soils and reverses the polarity of the circulation. The precipitation replenishes these soils with moisture at the expense of the formerly wet soils which dry, until the process repeats itself. On longer timescales, this acts to homogenize the precipitation field. By analyzing the strength of the shallow circulations, the surface budget with its effects on the boundary layer properties, and the shape of the soil moisture resistance function, we demonstrate that the soil has to dry out significantly, for the here-tested resistance formulations below 15{\%} of its water availability, to be able to alter the precipitation distribution. We expect such a process to broaden the distribution of precipitation over tropical land. This expectation is supported by observations which show that in drier years the monsoon rains move farther inland over Africa.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1408.1149},
author = {Hohenegger, Cathy and Stevens, Bjorn},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1718842115},
eprint = {arXiv:1408.1149},
isbn = {0891243208},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {CRM,Resolution,precipitation,section5},
number = {22},
pages = {5692--5697},
pmid = {29760083},
title = {{The role of the permanent wilting point in controlling the spatial distribution of precipitation}},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@book{Holloway2017,
abstract = {Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organi-zation, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observa-tional work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convec-tive organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are pre-sented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network.},
author = {Holloway, Christopher E. and Wing, Allison A. and Bony, Sandrine and Muller, Caroline and Masunaga, Hirohiko and L'Ecuyer, Tristan S. and Turner, David D. and Zuidema, Paquita},
booktitle = {Surveys in Geophysics},
doi = {10.1007/s10712-017-9419-1},
isbn = {1071201794},
issn = {15730956},
keywords = {Climate sensitivity,Cloud feedback,Convective organization,Self-aggregation,Tropical },
number = {6},
pages = {1199--1236},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Observing Convective Aggregation}},
volume = {38},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Holz2017,
author = {Holz, Andr{\'{e}}s and Paritsis, Juan and Mundo, Ignacio A. and Veblen, Thomas T. and Kitzberger, Thomas and Williamson, Grant J. and Ar{\'{a}}oz, Ezequiel and Bustos-Schindler, Carlos and Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Mauro E. and Grau, H. Ricardo and Quezada, Juan M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1705168114},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {36},
pages = {9552--9557},
title = {{Southern Annular Mode drives multicentury wildfire activity in southern South America}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1705168114},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hong2018,
abstract = {There has been no proxy climate record simultaneously showing the identified millennial-scale change events of the India summer monsoon (ISM) during the period from the Last Glacial period to the Holocene, although these abrupt changes have been shown in separate records. This deficiency prevents further understanding of the potentially different characteristics of the ISM rapid changes. Here, we present a 33,300-year record of the ISM reconstructed from the stable carbon isotopic composition of cellulose in peat deposits collected near the Tibetan Plateau, reflecting the millennial-scale history of abrupt changes in the ISM intensity from the cold late Last Glacial to the warm Holocene epoch. Our record shows that, corresponding to the abrupt cooling (warming) events that occur in the high northern latitudes, the ISM intensity abruptly decreases (increases), which provides additional evidence for the teleconnection between low-latitude monsoonal variability and the rapid tempera- ture fluctuation of high northern latitudes. However, this relationship behaves differently in the cold and warm stages. In the cold late Last Glacial period, a one-to-one response is often seen, but in the warm Holocene, the ISM often shows only partial responses to the rapid cooling events. In particular, more than half of the abruptly weakening events in the ISM occur in the Holocene, and the amplitudes of declines are larger in the warm stage than in the cold stage, which reveals that extreme change events in the ISM have occurred much more in the warm Holocene and may have once influenced the development of ancient civilizations. We consider that the various characteristics of the abrupt changes in the ISM during the warm and cold stages may have derived from different combinations of climatic drivers within the two stages. These results provide a historical record of the considerable changes in ISM and resultant effects on human society, and so provide a background for concerns over contemporary climate change.},
author = {Hong, Bing and Uchida, Masao and Hong, Yetang and Peng, Haijun and Kondo, Miyuki and Ding, Hanwei},
doi = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2018.01.033},
issn = {00310182},
journal = {Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology},
month = {may},
pages = {155--165},
title = {{The respective characteristics of millennial-scale changes of the India summer monsoon in the Holocene and the Last Glacial}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0031018217310325},
volume = {496},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hooper2018,
abstract = {Anthropogenic landuse, principally agriculture, has been shown to result in increased dust emissions from susceptible environments in a number of discrete studies. However, until now, there has been no broad-scale assessment of changes in dust emissions associated with human activity. Earth's surface has undergone a vast transition associated with the conversion of wildlands to agricultural landscapes. This included development of semi-arid and arid landscapes, which are highly sensitive to wind erosion, for agriculture. Much of this change occurred in the period between the late 19th and mid-20th Centuries. Therefore, they occurred prior to the beginning of scientific investigation of Earth systems and widespread environmental concern. As a result, empirically quantifying changes to dust emissions is problematic due to a lack of data from this time period, and consequently, the impact of these changes has been underappreciated. However, sedimentary archives, such as ice cores, which record dust deposition, both before, and following widespread landuse change, allow the magnitude of anthropogenic dust emissions to be estimated. In this paper we present a global compilation of data from sedimentary archives that allow an assessment of the change in dust emissions driven by human activity. Results show that globally dust emissions increased by a factor of 2.1 times after the Industrial Revolution (1750 CE). This change coincides with the development of ‘industrial agriculture' and the colonisation and development of new regions, e.g. Australia. Increases in anthropogenic dust are also shown by data compiled from other study types, such as remote sensing, airborne sediment sampling and meteorological station data. These additional studies, which don't predate the onset of industrial agriculture, and are more likely to be distorted by short term climate variability, suggest human activity has increased dust emissions by 1.3 to 45 times. Despite the uncertainties in these records and the limited number and spatial availably of sedimentary archive studies (n = 25), in combination they nevertheless imply that at least a doubling in dust emissions has occurred during the past {\~{}}250 years. The loss of soil associated with this change presents a serious challenge to soil security, while the increased dust load in the atmosphere is likely to have had a recognisable impact on biogeochemical cycles and climate. Consequently, the impact of changes both to, and from, global dust emissions warrants further investigation.},
author = {Hooper, James and Marx, Samuel},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.07.003},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
month = {oct},
pages = {70--91},
title = {{A global doubling of dust emissions during the Anthropocene?}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818118300481},
volume = {169},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hopcroft2017,
abstract = {During the Quaternary, the Sahara desert was periodically colonized by vegetation, likely because of orbitally induced rainfall increases. However, the estimated hydrological change is not reproduced in climate model simulations, undermining confidence in projections of future rainfall. We evaluated the relationship between the qualitative information on past vegetation coverage and climate for the mid-Holocene using three different dynamic vegetation models. Compared with two available vegetation reconstructions, the models require 500–800 mm of rainfall over 20°–25°N, which is significantly larger than inferred from pollen but largely in agreement with more recent leaf wax biomarker reconstructions. The magnitude of the response also suggests that required rainfall regime of the early to middle Holocene is far from being correctly represented in general circulation models. However, intermodel differences related to moisture stress parameterizations, biases in simulated present-day vegetation, and uncertainties about paleosoil distributions introduce uncertainties, and these are also relevant to Earth system model simulations of African humid periods. {\textcopyright}2017. The Authors.},
author = {Hopcroft, Peter O. and Valdes, Paul J. and Harper, Anna B. and Beerling, David J.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073740},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {6804--6813},
title = {{Multi vegetation model evaluation of the Green Sahara climate regime}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL073740},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hope2017,
abstract = {The characteristics of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spectra over the Last Millennium are examined to characterise variability over past centuries. Seven published palaeo-ENSO reconstructions and Nino3.4 from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 and Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project-Phase 3 (CMIP5–PMIP3) Last Millennium simulations were analysed. The corresponding Historical and pre-industrial Control CMIP5–PMIP3 simulations were also considered. The post-1850 spectrum of each modelled or reconstructed ENSO series captures aspects of the observed spectrum to varying degrees. We note that no single model or ENSO reconstruction completely reproduces the instrumental spectral characteristics. The spectral power across the 2–3 years (near biennial), 3–8 years (classical ENSO) and 8–25 years (decadal) periodicity bands was calculated in a sliding 50 year window, revealing temporal variability in the spectra. There was strong temporal variability in the spectral power of each periodicity band in observed Nino3.4 and SOI and for all reconstructions and simulations of ENSO. Significant peaks in spectral power such as observed in recent decades also occur in some of the reconstructed palaeo-ENSO (around 1600, the early 1700s and 1900) and modelled series (around the major volcanic eruptions of 1258 and 1452). While the recent increase in spectral power might be in response to enhanced greenhouse gas levels, the increase lies within the range of variability across the suite of ENSO reconstructions and simulations examined here. This study demonstrates that the analysis of a suite of ENSO reconstructions and model simulations can build a broader understanding of the time-varying nature of ENSO spectra, and how the nature of the past spectra of ENSO is to some extent dependant on the climate model or palaeo-ENSO reconstruction chosen.},
author = {Hope, Pandora and Henley, Benjamin J and Gergis, Joelle and Brown, Josephine and Ye, Hua},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3393-z},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {5},
pages = {1705--1727},
title = {{Time-varying spectral characteristics of ENSO over the Last Millennium}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3393-z},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hope2015,
author = {Hope, P and Grose, M and Timbal, B and Dowdy, A and Bhend, J and Katzfey, J and Bedin, T and Wilson, L and Whetton, P},
doi = {10.22499/2.6501.005},
journal = {Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {54--71},
title = {{Seasonal and regional signature of the projected southern Australian rainfall reduction}},
url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/docs/2015/hope1.pdf},
volume = {65},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Horinouchi2019,
abstract = {Through extensive modeling efforts, it has been established that the ongoing global warming will increase the overall precipitation associated with the East Asian summer monsoon, but the future change of its spatial distribution has not reached a consensus. In this study, meridional shifts of the mei-yu–baiu rainband are studied in association with the subtropical jet by using outputs from atmosphere–ocean coupled climate models provided by CMIP5. The models reproduce observed associations between the jet and precipitation over wide time scales from synoptic to interannual. The same relation is found in intermodel differences in simulated climatology, so that the meridional locations of the jet and baiu precipitation are positively correlated. The multimodel-mean projection suggests that the both are shifted southward by the late twenty-first century. This shift is not inconsistent with the projected tropical expansion, not only because the change is local but also because the projected tropical expansion occurs mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. No significant future change in the continental mei-yu precipitation location is identified, which might be because the jet change is weak there. For comparison, the summertime Atlantic jet position, which shifts northward, is investigated briefly. This study suggests that the future change of the subtropical jet is an important aspect to investigate possible future changes of the baiu rainband, and it prompts further studies including the role of the ocean.},
author = {Horinouchi, Takeshi and Matsumura, Shinji and Ose, Tomoaki and Takayabu, Yukari N},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0426.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2247--2259},
title = {{Jet–Precipitation Relation and Future Change of the Mei-Yu–Baiu Rainband and Subtropical Jet in CMIP5 Coupled GCM Simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0426.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{hjssrd15,
abstract = {Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the Earth's atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena1,2 have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing probability of extreme events3–5 . However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive6–8 . Here we identify statistically significant trends in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns, which partially explain observed trends in surface tem- perature extremes over seven mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Using self-organizing map cluster analysis9–12 ,we detect robust circulation pattern trends in a subset of these regions during both the satellite observation era (1979–2013) and the recent period of rapid Arctic sea-ice decline (1990–2013). Particularly substantial influences include the contribution of increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations to summer and autumn hot extremes over portions of Eurasia and North America, and the contribution of increasing trends in northerly flow to winter cold extremes over central Asia. Our results indicate that although a substantial portion of the observed change in extreme temperature occurrence has resulted from regional- and global-scale thermodynamic changes, the risk of extreme tempera- tures over some regions has also been altered by recent changes in the frequency, persistence and maximum duration of regional circulation patterns.},
author = {Horton, Daniel E. and Johnson, Nathaniel C. and Singh, Deepti and Swain, Daniel L. and Rajaratnam, Bala and Diffenbaugh, Noah S.},
doi = {10.1038/nature14550},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7557},
pages = {465--469},
pmid = {26108856},
title = {{Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14550},
volume = {522},
year = {2015}
}
@article{hgrbjcrfimdllr13,
author = {Hourdin, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Grandpeix, Jean-Yves and Rio, Catherine and Bony, Sandrine and Jam, Arnaud and Cheruy, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}rique and Rochetin, Nicolas and Fairhead, Laurent and Idelkadi, Abderrahmane and Musat, Ionela and Dufresne, Jean-Louis and Lahellec, Alain and Lefebvre, Marie-Pierre and Roehrig, Romain},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1343-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2193--2222},
title = {{LMDZ5B: the atmospheric component of the IPSL climate model with revisited parameterizations for clouds and convection}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1343-y},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hristova-Veleva2020,
abstract = {Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural phenomena with huge societal and economic impact. They form and evolve as the result of complex multiscale processes and nonlinear interactions. Even today the understanding and modeling of these processes is still lacking. A major goal of NASA is to bring the wealth of satellite and airborne observations to bear on addressing the unresolved scientific questions and improving our forecast models. Despite their significant amount, these observations are still underutilized in hurricane research and operations due to the complexity associated with finding and bringing together semicoincident and semicontemporaneous multiparameter data that are needed to describe the multiscale TC processes. Such data are traditionally archived in different formats, with different spatiotemporal resolution, across multiple databases, and hosted by various agencies. To address this shortcoming, NASA supported the development of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS)—a data analytic framework that integrates model forecasts with multiparameter satellite and airborne observations, providing interactive visualization and online analysis tools. TCIS supports interrogation of a large number of atmospheric and ocean variables, allowing for quick investigation of the structure of the tropical storms and their environments. This paper provides an overview of the TCIS's components and features. It also summarizes recent pilot studies, providing examples of how the TCIS has inspired new research, helping to increase our understanding of TCs. The goal is to encourage more users to take full advantage of the novel capabilities. TCIS allows atmospheric scientists to focus on new ideas and concepts rather than painstakingly gathering data scattered over several agencies.},
author = {Hristova-Veleva, Svetla M and Li, P Peggy and Knosp, Brian and Vu, Quoc and Turk, F Joseph and Poulsen, William L and Haddad, Ziad and Lambrigtsen, Bjorn and Stiles, Bryan W and Shen, Tsae-Pyng and Niamsuwan, Noppasin and Tanelli, Simone and Sy, Ousmane and Seo, Eun-Kyoung and Su, Hui and Vane, Deborah G and Chao, Yi and Callahan, Philip S and Dunbar, R Scott and Montgomery, Michael and Boothe, Mark and Tallapragada, Vijay and Trahan, Samuel and Wimmers, Anthony J and Holz, Robert and Reid, Jeffrey S and Marks, Frank and Vukicevic, Tomislava and Bhalachandran, Saiprasanth and Leighton, Hua and Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman and Navarro, Andres and Tapiador, Francisco J},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0020.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {E1718--E1742},
title = {{An Eye on the Storm: Integrating a Wealth of Data for Quickly Advancing the Physical Understanding and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0020.1},
volume = {101},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hsu2014,
abstract = {This review provides a summary of the major research progress in the variability of East Asian, Indochina and Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon. Time scales of the reviewed phenomena range from diurnal to interannual and interdecadal. Research results published in the past decades are the major sources for this review.},
author = {Hsu, Huang-Hsiung and Zhou, Tianjun and Matsumoto, Jun},
doi = {10.1007/s13143-014-0027-4},
issn = {1976-7633},
journal = {Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {45--68},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{East Asian, Indochina and Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon – An update}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13143-014-0027-4},
volume = {50},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Hu2003,
author = {Hu, Zeng-Zhen},
doi = {10.1029/2003JD003651},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {D19},
pages = {4614},
title = {{Long-term climate variations in China and global warming signals}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2003JD003651},
volume = {108},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Hu2018,
abstract = {The North American Dust Bowl drought during the 1930s had devastating environmental and societal impacts. Comprehending the causes of the drought has been an ongoing effort in order to better predict similar droughts and mitigate their impacts. Among the potential causes of the drought are sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and strengthened local sinking motion as a feedback to degradation of the land surface condition leading up to and during the drought. Limitations on these causes are the lack of a strong tropical SST anomaly during the drought and lack of local anomaly in moisture supply to undercut the precipitation in the U.S. Great Plains. This study uses high-resolution modeling experiments and quantifies an effect of the particular Great Plains land cover in the 1930s that weakens the southerly moisture flux to the region. This effect lowers the average precipitation, making the Great Plains more susceptible to drought. When drought occurs, the land-cover effect enhances its intensity and prolongs its duration. Results also show that this land-cover effect is comparable in magnitude to the effect of the 1930s large-scale circulation anomaly. Finally, analysis of the relationship of these two effects suggests that while lowering the precipitation must have contributed to the Dust Bowl drought via the 1930s land-cover effect, the initiation of and recovery from that drought would likely result from large-scale circulation changes, either of chaotic origin or resulting from combinations of weak SST anomalies and other forcing.},
author = {Hu, Qi and Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham and {Van Den Broeke}, Matthew S.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0515.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-land interaction,Drought,Dynamics},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4657--4667},
title = {{Land-Cover Change and the “Dust Bowl” Drought in the U.S. Great Plains}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0515.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{rs11161908,
abstract = {Under climate change and increasing water demands, groundwater depletion has become regional and global threats for water security, which is an indispensable target to achieving sustainable developments of human society and ecosystems, especially in arid and semiarid regions where groundwater is a major water source. In this study, groundwater depletion of 2003–2016 over Xinjiang in China, a typical arid region of Central Asia, is assessed using the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) satellite and the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) datasets. In the transition of a warm-dry to a warm-wet climate in Xinjiang, increases in precipitation, soil moisture and snow water equivalent are detected, while GRACE-based groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) exhibit significant decreasing trends with rates between-3.61 ± 0.85 mm/a of CSR-GWSA and −3.10 ± 0.91 mm/a of JPL-GWSA. Groundwater depletion is more severe in autumn and winter. The decreases in GRACE-based GWSA are in a good agreement with the groundwater statistics collected from local authorities. However, at the same time, groundwater abstraction in Xinjiang doubled, and the water supplies get more dependent on groundwater. The magnitude of groundwater depletion is about that of annual groundwater abstraction, suggesting that scientific exploitation of groundwater is the key to ensure the sustainability of freshwater withdrawals and supplies. Furthermore, GWSA changes can be well estimated by the partial least square regression (PLSR) method based on inputs of climate data. Therefore, GRACE observations provide a feasible approach for local policy makers to monitor and forecast groundwater changes to control groundwater depletion.},
author = {Hu, Zengyun and Zhou, Qiming and Chen, Xi and Chen, Deliang and Li, Jianfeng and Guo, Meiyu and Yin, Gang and Duan, Zheng},
doi = {10.3390/rs11161908},
issn = {2072-4292},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {1908},
title = {{Groundwater Depletion Estimated from GRACE: A Challenge of Sustainable Development in an Arid Region of Central Asia}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/16/1908},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hua2017ClimDyn,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Previous studies show that Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations may help to explain the observed long-term drought during April–May–June (AMJ) since the 1990s over Central equatorial Africa (CEA). However, the underlying physical mechanisms for this drought are still not clear due to observation limitations. Here we use the AMIP-type simulations with 24 ensemble members forced by observed SSTs from the ECHAM4.5 model to explore the likely physical processes that determine the rainfall variations over CEA. We not only examine the ensemble mean (EM), but also compare the “good” and “poor” ensemble members to understand the intra-ensemble variability. In general, EM and the “good” ensemble member can simulate the drought and associated reduced vertical velocity and anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere. However, the “poor” ensemble members cannot simulate the drought and associated circulation patterns. These contrasts indicate that the drought is tightly associated with the tropical Walker circulation and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. If the observational circulation patterns cannot b e reproduced, the CEA drought will not be captured. Despite the large intra-ensemble spread, the model simulations indicate an essential role of SST forcing in causing the drought. These results suggest that the long-term drought may result from tropical Indo-Pacific SST variations associated with the enhanced and westward extended tropical Walker circulation.},
annote = {central equatorial Africa April-June drought linked to internal variability in Indo-Pacific SST},
author = {Hua, Wenjian and Zhou, Liming and Chen, Haishan and Nicholson, Sharon E. and Jiang, Yan and Raghavendra, Ajay},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3665-2},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {AMIP,Central Equatorial Drought,Sea surface temperature},
month = {apr},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1115--1128},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Understanding the Central Equatorial African long-term drought using AMIP-type simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3665-2},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hua2019,
abstract = {By analyzing observations and model simulations, here we show that there exists a significant anticorrelation on interannual to multidecadal time scales between the Sahel and southeast Amazon rainfall during July‐August‐September. This rainfall seesaw, which is strongest on decadal to multidecadal scales, is due to an anomalous meridional gradient of sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic that pushes the Intertropical Convergence Zone and its associated rain belt toward the anomalously warm hemisphere. Large ensemble model simulations suggest that the seesaw pattern is likely caused by decadal changes in anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols, rather than internal climate variability. Our results suggest that the recent decadal to multidecadal climate variations in and around the North Atlantic basin are largely externally forced and that projected large North Atlantic warming could lead to a wetter Sahel but drier Amazon in the future.},
author = {Hua, Wenjian and Dai, Aiguo and Zhou, Liming and Qin, Minhua and Chen, Haishan},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081406},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {923--932},
title = {{An Externally Forced Decadal Rainfall Seesaw Pattern Over the Sahel and Southeast Amazon}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081406},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hua2016,
abstract = {Previous studies found that Central Equatorial Africa (CEA) has experienced a long-term drying trend over the past two decades. To further evaluate this finding, we investigate possible mechanisms for this drought by analyzing multiple sources of observations and reanalysis data. We examine the atmospheric circulation changes related to sea surface temperature (SST) variations that control the equatorial African rainfall. Our results indicate that the long-term drought during April, May and June over CEA may reflect the large-scale response of the atmosphere to tropical SST variations. Likely the drought results primarily from SST variations over Indo-Pacific associated with the enhanced and westward extended tropical Walker circulation. These are consistent with the weakened ascent over Central Africa that is associated with the reduced low-level moisture transport. The large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with a weaker West African monsoon also have some contribution. These results reinforce the notion that tropical SSTs have large impacts on rainfall over equatorial Africa and highlight the need to further distinguish the contribution of SSTs changes (e.g., La Nia-like pattern and Indian Ocean warming) due to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing to the drought.},
author = {Hua, Wenjian and Zhou, Liming and Chen, Haishan and Nicholson, Sharon E. and Raghavendra, Ajay and Jiang, Yan},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124002},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {drought,equatorial Africa,rainfall,sea surface temperature},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {124002},
title = {{Possible causes of the Central Equatorial African long-term drought}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124002},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Huang2016a,
abstract = {Realistic representation of vegetation's response to drought is important for understanding terrestrial carbon cycling. We evaluated nine Earth system models from the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 for the response of gross primary productivity (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) to hydrological anomalies. Hydrological anomalies were characterized by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and surface soil moisture anomalies (SMA). GPP and LAI in models were on average more responsive to SPI than in observations revealed through several indicators. First, we find higher mean correlations between global annual anomalies of GPP and SPI in models than observations. Second, the maximum correlation between GPP and SPI across 1–24 month time scales is higher in models than observations. And finally, we found stronger excursions of GPP to extreme dry or wet events. Similar to GPP, LAI responded more to SPI in models than observations. The over-response of models is smaller if evaluated based on SMA instead of SPI. LAI responses to SMA are inconsistent among models, showing both higher and lower LAI when soil moisture is reduced. The time scale of maximum correlation is shorter in models than the observation for GPP, and the markedly different response time scales among models for LAI indicate gaps in understanding how variability of water availability affects foliar cover. The discrepancy of responses derived from SPI and SMA among models, and between models and observations, calls for improvement in understanding the dynamics of plant-available water in addition to how vegetation responds to these anomalies.},
author = {Huang, Yuanyuan and Gerber, Stefan and Huang, Tongyi and Lichstein, Jeremy W.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GB005480},
issn = {19449224},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
keywords = {CMIP5,carbon cycle,carbon-water interactions,dynamic global vegetation extreme event,land },
number = {12},
pages = {1827--1846},
title = {{Evaluating the drought response of CMIP5 models using global gross primary productivity, leaf area, precipitation, and soil moisture data}},
volume = {30},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Huang2018ERL,
abstract = {This study assesses the flood characteristics (timing, magnitude and frequency) in the pre-industrial and historical periods, and analyzes climate change impacts on floods at the warming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level in four large river basins as required by the Paris agreement. Three well-established hydrological models (HMs) were forced with bias-corrected outputs from four global climate models (GCMs) for the pre-industrial, historical and future periods until 2100. The long pre-industrial and historical periods were subdivided into multiple 31-year subperiods to investigate the natural variability. The mean flood characteristics in the pre-industrial period were derived from the large ensemble based on all GCMs, HMs and 31-year subperiods, and compared to the ensemble means in the historical and future periods. In general, the variance of simulated flood characteristics is quite large in the pre-industrial and historical periods. Mostly GCMs and HMs contribute to the variance, especially for flood timing and magnitude, while the selection of 31-year subperiods is an important source of variance for flood frequency. The comparison between the ensemble means shows that there are already some changes in flood characteristics between the pre-industrial and historical periods. There is a clear shift towards earlier flooding for the Rhine (1.5 K scenario) and Upper Mississippi (3.0 K scenario). The flood magnitudes show a substantial increase in the Rhine and Upper Yellow only under the 3.0 K scenario. The floods are projected to occur more frequently in the Rhine under the 1.5 and 2.0 K scenarios, and less frequently in the Upper Mississippi under all scenarios.},
annote = {Combining hydrological models with bias corrected climate model outputs, there is evidence of projected earlier and increasing magnitude flooding in some but not all large river catchments.},
author = {Huang, Shaochun and Kumar, Rohini and Rakovec, Oldrich and Aich, Valentin and Wang, Xiaoyan and Samaniego, Luis and Liersch, Stefan and Krysanova, Valentina},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {12},
pages = {124005},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=12/a=124005?key=crossref.de3a1f3d4d5cc09561ed1dee2e74e4ef},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Huang2017c,
abstract = {In regional climate impact studies, good performance of regional models under present/historical climate conditions is a prerequisite for reliable future projections. This study aims to investigate the overall performance of 9 hydrological models for 12 large-scale river basins worldwide driven by the reanalysis climate data from the Water and Global Change},
author = {Huang, Shaochun and Kumar, Rohini and Fl{\"{o}}rke, Martina and Yang, Tao and Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa and Kraft, Philipp and Gao, Chao and Gelfan, Alexander and Liersch, Stefan and Lobanova, Anastasia and Strauch, Michael and van Ogtrop, Floris and Reinhardt, Julia and Haberlandt, Uwe and Krysanova, Valentina},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1841-8},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {381--397},
publisher = {Climatic Change},
title = {{Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide}},
volume = {141},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Huang2014,
abstract = {East Asia is a major dust source in the world. Mineral dusts in the$\backslash$natmosphere and their interactions with clouds and precipitation have$\backslash$ngreat impacts on regional climate in Asia, where there are large arid$\backslash$nand semiarid regions. In this review paper, we summarize the typical$\backslash$ntransport paths of East Asian dust, which affect regional and global$\backslash$nclimates, and discuss numerous effects of dust aerosols on clouds and$\backslash$nprecipitation primarily over East Asian arid and semiarid regions. We$\backslash$nhope to provide a benchmark of our present understanding of these$\backslash$nissues. Compared with the aerosols of Saharan dust, those of East Asian$\backslash$ndust are more absorptive of solar radiation, and its direct radiative$\backslash$nforcing at the top of atmosphere is nearly positive or nil. It means$\backslash$nthat aerosols of East Asian dust can influence the cloud properties not$\backslash$nonly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei (via first$\backslash$nindirect effect, second indirect effect, and invigoration effect) but$\backslash$nalso through changing the relative humidity and stability of the$\backslash$natmosphere (via semidirect effect). Converting visible light to thermal$\backslash$nenergy, dust aerosols can burn clouds to produce a warming effect on$\backslash$nclimate, which is opposite to the first and second indirect effects of$\backslash$naerosols. The net dust aerosol radiative effects are still highly$\backslash$nunclear. In addition, dust can inhibit or enhance precipitation under$\backslash$ncertain conditions, thus impacting the hydrological cycle. Over Asian$\backslash$narid and semiarid regions, the positive feedback loop in the$\backslash$naerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction may aggravate drought in its$\backslash$ninner land.},
author = {Huang, Jianping and Wang, Tianhe and Wang, Wencai and Li, Zhanqing and Yan, Hongru},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD021796},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {11398--11416},
title = {{Climate effects of dust aerosols over East Asian arid and semiarid regions}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD021796},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Huang2013,
abstract = {Tropical convection is an important factor in regional climate variability and change around the globe1,2. The response of regional precipitation to global warming is spatially variable, and state-of-the-art model projections suffer large uncertainties in the geographic distribution of precipitation changes3–5. Two views exist regarding tropical rainfall change: one predicts increased rainfall in presently rainy regions (wet-get-wetter)6–8, and the other suggests increased rainfall where the rise in sea surface temperature exceeds the mean surface warming in the tropics (warmer-get-wetter)9–12. Here we analyse simulations with 18 models fromtheCoupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and present a unifying view for seasonal rainfall change.We find that the pattern of ocean warming induces ascending atmospheric flow at the Equator and subsidence on the flanks, anchoring a band of annual mean rainfall increase near the Equator that reflects the warmer- get-wetter view.However, this climatological ascending motion marches back and forth across the Equator with the Sun, pumping moisture upwards from the boundary layer and causing seasonal rainfall anomalies to follow a wet-get-wetter pattern. The seasonal mean rainfall, which is the sum of the annual mean and seasonal anomalies, thus combines the wet-get-wetter and warmer-get-wetter trends. Given that precipitation climatology is well observed whereas the pattern of ocean surface warming is poorly constrained13,14, our results suggest that projections of tropical seasonal mean rainfall are more reliable than the annual mean},
author = {Huang, Ping and Xie, Shang-Ping and Hu, Kaiming and Huang, Gang and Huang, Ronghui},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1792},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {357--361},
title = {{Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1792},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Huang2020a,
abstract = {The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall affects a large population in South Asia. Observations show a decline in ISM rainfall from 1950-1999 and a recovery from 1999-2013. While the decline has been attributed to global warming, aerosol effects, deforestation, and a negative-to-positive phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the cause for the recovery remains largely unclear. Through analyses of a 57-member perturbed-parameter ensemble of model simulations, this study shows that the externally-forced rainfall trend is relatively weak and is overwhelmed by large internal variability during both 1950-1999 and 1999-2013. The IPO is identified as the internal mode that helps modulate the recent decline and recovery of the ISM rainfall. The IPO induces ISM rainfall changes through moisture convergence anomalies associated with an anomalous Walker circulation and meridional tropospheric temperature gradients and the resultant anomalous convection and zonal moisture advection. The negative-to-positive IPO phase transition from 1950-1999 reduces what would have been an externally-forced weak upward rainfall trend of 0.01 mm day -1 decade -1 to −0.15 mm day -1 decade -1 during that period, while the rainfall trend from 1999-2013 increases from the forced value of 0.42 to 0.68 mm day -1 decade -1 associated with a positive-to-negative IPO phase transition. Such a significant modulation of the historical ISM rainfall trends by the IPO is confirmed by another 100-member ensemble of simulations using perturbed initial conditions. Our findings highlight that the interplay between the effects of external forcing and the IPO needs be considered for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in South Asia.},
annote = {Decline of Indian summer monsoon 1950-1999 and recovery 1999-2013 dominated by internal climate variability},
author = {Huang, Xin and Zhou, Tianjun and Turner, Andrew and Dai, Aiguo and Chen, Xiaolong and Clark, Robin and Jiang, Jie and Man, Wenmin and Murphy, James and Rostron, John and Wu, Bo and Zhang, Lixia and Zhang, Wenxia and Zou, Liwei},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-19-0833.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {mar},
number = {12},
pages = {5035--5060},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The Recent Decline and Recovery of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Relative Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0833.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Huang2018,
abstract = {The uncertainty of global summer precipitation simulated by the 23 CMIP5 CGCMs and the possible impacts of model resolutions are investigated in this study. Large un- certainties exist over the tropical and subtropical regions, which can be mainly attributed to convective precipitation simulation. High-resolution models (HRMs) and low- resolution models (LRMs) are further investigated to demon- strate their different contributions to the uncertainties of the ensemble mean. It shows that the high-resolution model en- semble means (HMME) and low-resolution model ensemble mean (LMME) mitigate the biases between the MME and observation over most continents and oceans, respectively. The HMME simulates more precipitation than the LMME over most oceans, but less precipitation over some continents. The dominant precipitation category in the HRMs (LRMs) is the heavy precipitation (moderate precipitation) over the trop- ic regions. The combinations of convective and stratiform precipitation are also quite different: the HMME has much higher ratio of stratiform precipitation while the LMME has more convective precipitation. Finally, differences in precipi- tation between the HMME and LMME can be traced to their differences in the SST simulations via the local and remote air- sea interaction.},
author = {Huang, Danqing and Yan, Peiwen and Zhu, Jian and Zhang, Yaocun and Kuang, Xueyuan and Cheng, Jing},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-017-2078-9},
issn = {14344483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
number = {1-2},
pages = {55--69},
publisher = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
title = {{Uncertainty of global summer precipitation in the CMIP5 models: a comparison between high-resolution and low-resolution models}},
volume = {132},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Huang2020b,
abstract = {A reliable projection of future South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) benefits a large population in Asia. Using a 100-member ensemble of simulations by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and a 50-member ensemble of simulations by the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), we find that internal variability can overshadow the forced SASM rainfall trend, leading to large projection uncertainties for the next 15 to 30 years. We further identify that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is, in part, responsible for the uncertainties. Removing the IPO-related rainfall variations reduces the uncertainties in the near-term projection of the SASM rainfall by 13 to 15{\%} and 26 to 30{\%} in the MPI-ESM and CanESM2 ensembles, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the uncertainties in near-term projections of the SASM rainfall can be reduced by improving prediction of near-future IPO and other internal modes of climate variability.},
author = {Huang, Xin and Zhou, Tianjun and Dai, Aiguo and Li, Hongmei and Li, Chao and Chen, Xiaolong and Lu, Jingwen and Von storch, Jin-Song and Wu, Bo and Von, Jin-song and Wu, Bo and Von storch, Jin-Song and Wu, Bo},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aay6546},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {mar},
number = {11},
pages = {eaay6546},
title = {{South Asian summer monsoon projections constrained by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation}},
url = {https://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay6546},
volume = {6},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Huang2020c,
abstract = {The upper-level tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is a crucial component of the summer monsoon system and tropical general circulation. The simulation and projection of the TEJ, however, have not been assessed. Here we evaluate models' fidelity and assess the future change of the TEJ by utilizing 16 models that participated in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most of the models can reproduce the TEJ reasonably well in terms of climatology, seasonal evolution, and interannual variability. Nevertheless, underestimation of the TEJ's intensity and extent is identified, with the maximum bias occurring in the jet centers over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) and the tropical eastern Pacific (EP). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5, the multimodel ensemble projects a remarkable reduction in the central TEJ intensity by about 18{\%} over the IO and 77{\%} over the EP toward the end of the twenty-first century. The mean intensity of TEJ will weaken by about 11{\%}, and the extent will reduce by 6{\%}, suggesting a significantly weakened upper-level monsoon circulation in the future climate. The projected El Ni{\~{n}}o–like warming pattern over the tropical Pacific may play a critical role in the future weakening of the TEJ via inducing suppressed rainfall over the tropical eastern IO and Central America. The model uncertainties in the projected TEJ changes may arise from the uncertainties in the models' projected tropical EP warming. The sensitivity of future projections to model selection is also examined. Results show that the selection of models based on different physical considerations does not yield a significantly different projection.},
author = {Huang, Sihua and Wang, Bin and Wen, Zhiping},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1002.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {8439--8455},
title = {{Dramatic Weakening of the Tropical Easterly Jet Projected by CMIP6 Models}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/19/8439/353358/Dramatic-Weakening-of-the-Tropical-Easterly-Jet},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Huang2019,
author = {Huang, Ping and Zheng, Xiao-Tong and Ying, Jun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0847.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {3803--3818},
title = {{Disentangling the Changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole–Related SST and Rainfall Variability under Global Warming in CMIP5 Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0847.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hui2018,
author = {Hui, Chang and Zheng, Xiao-Tong},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4098-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {nov},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3597--3611},
title = {{Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4098-2},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hung2013a,
abstract = {This study evaluates the simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) in 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and compares the results with the simulation of CMIP phase 3 (CMIP3) models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The results show that the CMIP5 models exhibit an overall improvement over the CMIP3 models in the simulation of tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the MJO and several CCEWs. The CMIP5 models generally produce larger total intraseasonal (2–128 day) variance of precipitation than the CMIP3 models, as well as larger variances of Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), and eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) waves. Nearly all models have signals of the CCEWs, with Kelvin and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) and EIG waves being especially prominent. The phase speeds, as scaled to equivalent depths, are close to the observed value in 10 of the 20 models, suggesting that these models produce sufficient reduction in their effective static stability by diabatic heating. The CMIP5 models generally produce larger MJO variance than the CMIP3 models, as well as a more realistic ratio between the variance of the eastward MJO and that of its westward counterpart. About one-third of the CMIP5 models generate the spectral peak of MJO precipitation between 30 and 70 days; however, the model MJO period tends to be longer than observations as part of an overreddened spectrum, which in turn is associated with too strong persistence of equatorial precipitation. Only one of the 20 models is able to simulate a realistic eastward propagation of the MJO.},
author = {Hung, Meng-Pai and Lin, Jia-Lin and Wang, Wanqiu and Kim, Daehyun and Shinoda, Toshiaki and Weaver, Scott J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00541.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6185--6214},
title = {{MJO and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves Simulated by CMIP5 Climate Models}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/26/17/6185/34378/MJO-and-Convectively-Coupled-Equatorial-Waves},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Huntington2006,
abstract = {One of the more important questions in hydrology is: if the climate warms in the future, will there be an intensification of the water cycle and, if so, the nature of that intensification? There is considerable interest in this question because an intensification of the water cycle may lead to changes in water-resource availability, an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, floods, and droughts, and an amplification of warming through the water vapor feedback. Empirical evidence for ongoing intensification of the water cycle would provide additional support for the theoretical framework that links intensification with warming. This paper briefly reviews the current state of science regarding historical trends in hydrologic variables, including precipitation, runoff, tropospheric water vapor, soil moisture, glacier mass balance, evaporation, evapotranspiration, and growing season length. Data are often incomplete in spatial and temporal domains and regional analyses are variable and sometimes contradictory; however, the weight of evidence indicates an ongoing intensification of the water cycle. In contrast to these trends, the empirical evidence to date does not consistently support an increase in the frequency or intensity of tropical storms and floods.},
author = {Huntington, Thomas G.},
doi = {10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2005.07.003},
issn = {0022-1694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {mar},
number = {1-4},
pages = {83--95},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis}},
volume = {319},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Huss2018,
abstract = {Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1–4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (‘peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2{\%} ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10{\%} due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.},
author = {Huss, Matthias and Hock, Regine},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x},
isbn = {1758-678X 1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {2},
pages = {135--140},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hwang2013,
abstract = {In this paper, we demonstrate a global scale southward shift of the tropical rain belt during the latter half of the 20th century in observations and global climate models (GCMs). In rain gauge data, the southward shift maximizes in the 1980s and is associated with signals in Africa, Asia, and South America. A southward shift exists at a similar time in nearly all CMIP3 and CMIP5 historical simulations, and occurs on both land and ocean, although in most models the shifts are significantly less than in observations. Utilizing a theoretical framework based on atmospheric energetics, we perform an attribution of the zonal mean southward shift of precipitation across a large suite of CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs. Our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosol cooling of the Northern Hemisphere is the primary cause of the consistent southward shift across GCMs, although other processes affecting the atmospheric energy budget also contribute to the model-to-model spread.},
author = {Hwang, Yen‐Ting and Frierson, Dargan M.W. and Kang, Sarah M.},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50502},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change and variability,climate dynamics,clouds and aerosols,global climate models},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {2845--2850},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and the southward shift of tropical precipitation in the late 20th century}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/grl.50502 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50502},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Ibarra2018,
author = {Ibarra, Daniel E. and Oster, Jessica L. and Winnick, Matthew J. and Rugenstein, Jeremy K.Caves and Byrne, Michael P. and Chamberlain, C. Page and Chamberlain, Jeremy K. Caves Rugenstein and Byrne, Michael P. and Page, C. and Rugenstein, Jeremy K.Caves and Byrne, Michael P. and Chamberlain, C. Page},
doi = {10.1130/G39962.1},
issn = {19432682},
journal = {Geology},
number = {4},
pages = {355--358},
title = {{Warm and cold wet states in the western United States during the Pliocene–Pleistocene}},
volume = {46},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Iles2015,
author = {Iles, Carley E. and Hegerl, Gabriele C.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2545},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {838--842},
title = {{Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2545},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Iles2014,
abstract = {We examine the precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations compared to three observational datasets, including one with ocean coverage. Global precipitation decreases significantly following eruptions in CMIP5 models, with the largest decrease in wet tropical regions. This also occurs in observational land data, and ocean data in the boreal cold season. Monsoon rainfall decreases following eruptions in both models and observations. In response to individual eruptions, the ITCZ shifts away from the hemisphere with the greater concentration of aerosols in CMIP5. Models undergo a longer-lasting ocean precipitation response than over land, but the response in the short satellite record is too noisy to confirm this. We detect the influence of volcanism on precipitation in all three datasets in the cold season, although the models underestimate the size of the response. In the warm season the volcanic influence is only marginally detectable.},
author = {Iles, Carley E. and Hegerl, Gabriele C.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {104012},
title = {{The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Imfeld2020,
abstract = {Abstract In the southern Peruvian Andes, communities are highly dependent on climatic conditions due to the mainly rain-fed agriculture and the importance of glaciers and snow melt as a freshwater resource. Longer-term trends and year-to-year variability of precipitation or temperature severely affect living conditions. This study evaluates seasonal precipitation and temperature climatologies and trends in the period 1965/66?2017/18 for the southern Peruvian Andes using quality-controlled and homogenized station data and new observational gridded data. In this region, precipitation exhibits a strong annual cycle with very dry winter months and most of the precipitation falling from spring to autumn. Spatially, a northeast?southwest gradient in austral spring is observed, related to an earlier start of the rainy season in the northeastern part of the study area. Seasonal variations of maximum temperature are weak with an annual maximum in austral spring, which is related to reduced cloud cover in austral spring compared to summer. On the contrary, minimum temperatures show larger seasonal variations, possibly enhanced through changes in longwave incoming radiation following the precipitation cycle. Precipitation trends since 1965 exhibit low spatial consistency except for austral summer, when in most of the study area increasing precipitation is observed, and in austral spring, when stations in the central-western region of the study area register decreasing precipitation. All seasonal and annual trends in maximum temperature are larger than trends in minimum temperature. Maximum temperature exhibits strong trends in austral winter and spring, whereas minimum temperature trends are strongest in austral winter. We hypothesize, that these trends are related to precipitation changes, as decreasing (increasing) precipitation in spring (summer) may enhance maximum (minimum) temperature trends through changes in cloud cover. El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), however, has modifying effects onto precipitation and temperature, and thereby leads to larger trends in maximum temperatures.},
author = {Imfeld, Noemi and Sedlmeier, Katrin and Gubler, Stefanie and {Correa Marrou}, Kris and Davila, Cristina P and Huerta, Adrian and Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo and Rohrer, Mario and Scherrer, Simon C and Schwierz, Cornelia},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6645},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {agrometeorology,climate,mountains,observational data analysis,physical phenomenon,rainfall,seasonal},
month = {jan},
pages = {679--698},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A combined view on precipitation and temperature climatology and trends in the southern Andes of Peru}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6645},
volume = {41},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Immerzeel2020a,
abstract = {Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands1,2. They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change3,4, yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here we present a global water tower index (WTI), which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each water tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socio-economic changes. We conclude that the most important (highest WTI) water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountainous areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world's most important and vulnerable water towers.},
author = {Immerzeel, W W and Lutz, A F and Andrade, M and Bahl, A and Biemans, H and Bolch, T and Hyde, S and Brumby, S and Davies, B J and Elmore, A C and Emmer, A and Feng, M and Fern{\'{a}}ndez, A and Haritashya, U and Kargel, J S and Koppes, M and Kraaijenbrink, P D A and Kulkarni, A V and Mayewski, P A and Nepal, S and Pacheco, P and Painter, T H and Pellicciotti, F and Rajaram, H and Rupper, S and Sinisalo, A and Shrestha, A B and Viviroli, D and Wada, Y and Xiao, C and Yao, T and Baillie, J E M},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7790},
pages = {364--369},
title = {{Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y},
volume = {577},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ionita2020,
author = {Ionita, Monica and Nagavciuc, Viorica and Guan, Bin},
doi = {10.5194/hess-24-5125-2020},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {5125--5147},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{Rivers in the sky, flooding on the ground: the role of atmospheric rivers in inland flooding in central Europe}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/24/5125/2020/ https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/24/5125/2020/hess-24-5125-2020.pdf},
volume = {24},
year = {2020}
}
@book{IPCCWG1PhysicalStocker2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {1535},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
type = {Book},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Masson-Delmotte2018a,
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,},
chapter = {SPM},
editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P.R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and P{\'{e}}an, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M.I. and Lonnoy, E. and {T. Maycock} and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.},
pages = {1--30},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Summary for Policymakers}},
type = {Book Section},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Irvine2019,
abstract = {Solar geoengineering (SG) has the potential to restore average surface temperatures by increasing planetary albedo1–4, but this could reduce precipitation5–7. Thus, although SG might reduce globally aggregated risks, it may increase climate risks for some regions8–10. Here, using the high-resolution forecast-oriented low ocean resolution (HiFLOR) model—which resolves tropical cyclones and has an improved representation of present-day precipitation extremes11,12—alongside 12 models from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), we analyse the fraction of locations that see their local climate change exacerbated or moderated by SG. Rather than restoring temperatures, we assume that SG is applied to halve the warming produced by doubling CO2 (half-SG). In HiFLOR, half-SG offsets most of the CO2-induced increase of simulated tropical cyclone intensity. Moreover, neither temperature, water availability, extreme temperature nor extreme precipitation are exacerbated under half-SG when averaged over any Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Extremes (SREX) region. Indeed, for both extreme precipitation and water availability, less than 0.4{\%} of the ice-free land surface sees exacerbation. Thus, while concerns about the inequality of solar geoengineering impacts are appropriate, the quantitative extent of inequality may be overstated13.},
author = {Irvine, Peter and Emanuel, Kerry and He, Jie and Horowitz, Larry W and Vecchi, Gabriel and Keith, David},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0398-8},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {295--299},
title = {{Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0398-8 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0398-8},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ishizaki2013a,
abstract = {Pattern scaling is an efficient way to generate projections of regional climate change for various emission scenarios. This approach assumes that the spatial pattern of changes per degree of global warming (scaling pattern) is the same among emission scenarios. The hypothesis was tested for the scaling pattern of precipitation by focusing on the scenario dependence of aerosol scaling patterns. The scenario dependence of aerosol scaling patterns induced the scenario dependence of the surface shortwave radiation scaling pattern. The scenario dependence of the surface shortwave radiation scaling pattern over the ocean tended to induce the scenario dependence of evaporation scaling patterns. The scenario dependence of evaporation scaling patterns led to the scenario dependence of precipitation scaling patterns locally and downwind. Contrariwise, when the scenario dependence of aerosol scaling patterns occurred over land, the scenario dependence of surface shortwave radiation scaling patterns induced the scenario dependence of the scaling patterns of evaporation, surface longwave radiation, and sensible heat. Consequently, the scenario dependence of evaporation scaling patterns was smaller over land, and the scenario dependence of precipitation scaling patterns tended to be insignificant. Moreover, the scenario dependence of the southern annular mode and polar amplification caused some of the scenario dependence of precipitation scaling patterns. In this study, only one global climate mode was analyzed. In addition, sensitivity experiments that remove aerosol emissions from some regions or some kinds of aerosols are ideal to separate the impacts of aerosols. Thus, an analysis of the dependencies of precipitation scaling pattern among global climate models and the sensitivity experiments are required in future work. {\textcopyright} 2013 American Meteorological Society.},
author = {Ishizaki, Yasuhiro and Shiogama, Hideo and Emori, Seita and Yokohata, Tokuta and Nozawa, Toru and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Ogura, Tomoo and Yoshimori, Masakazu and Nagashima, Tatsuya},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00540.1},
isbn = {0894-8755$\backslash$r1520-0442},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate models},
number = {22},
pages = {8868--8879},
title = {{Dependence of precipitation scaling patterns on emission scenarios for representative concentration pathways}},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Jackson2016,
author = {Jackson, L. S. and Crook, J. A. and Forster, P. M.},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD024304},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {10.1002/2015JD024304 and geoengineering,cirrus cloud thinning,climate,evaporation,precipitation,temperature},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {6822--6840},
title = {{An intensified hydrological cycle in the simulation of geoengineering by cirrus cloud thinning using ice crystal fall speed changes}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015JD024304},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Jackson2015a,
abstract = {The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional$\backslash$nOverturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global$\backslash$nclimate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the$\backslash$nhighest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the$\backslash$nimpacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent$\backslash$nwith previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large$\backslash$nreduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling$\backslash$nthroughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less$\backslash$nprecipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in$\backslash$nprecipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic$\backslash$nstorm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution,$\backslash$nhas revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those$\backslash$nassociated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer$\backslash$nprecipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is$\backslash$nassociated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal.$\backslash$nWinter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric$\backslash$ncirculation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with$\backslash$nmore winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger$\backslash$nwesterly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while$\backslash$nweaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the$\backslash$nabsence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe's landmass$\backslash$nwould be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and$\backslash$natmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and$\backslash$nvegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability$\backslash$nand crop production.},
author = {Jackson, L. C. and Kahana, R. and Graham, T. and Ringer, M. A. and Woollings, T. and Mecking, J. V. and Wood, R. A.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2},
isbn = {1432-0894},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {AMOC,Climate,Impacts},
month = {dec},
number = {11-12},
pages = {3299--3316},
title = {{Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Jackson2020c,
abstract = {The Hadley circulation and tropical rain belt are dominant features of African climate. Moist convection provides ascent within the rain belt, but must be parameterized in climate models, limiting predictions. Here, we use a pan-African convection-permitting model (CPM), alongside a parameterized convection model (PCM), to analyze how explicit convection affects the rain belt under climate change. Regarding changes in mean climate, both models project an increase in total column water (TCW), a widespread increase in rainfall, and slowdown of subtropical descent. Regional climate changes are similar for annual mean rainfall but regional changes of ascent typically strengthen less or weaken more in the CPM. Over a land-only meridional transect of the rain belt, the CPM mean rainfall increases less than in the PCM (5{\%} vs 14{\%}) but mean vertical velocity at 500 hPa weakens more (17{\%} vs 10{\%}). These changes mask more fundamental changes in underlying distributions. The decrease in 3-hourly rain frequency and shift from lighter to heavier rainfall are more pronounced in the CPM and accompanied by a shift from weak to strong updrafts with the enhancement of heavy rainfall largely due to these dynamic changes. The CPM has stronger coupling between intense rainfall and higher TCW. This yields a greater increase in rainfall contribution from events with greater TCW, with more rainfall for a given large-scale ascent, and so favors slowing of that ascent. These findings highlight connections between the convective-scale and larger-scale flows and emphasize that limitations of parameterized convection have major implications for planning adaptation to climate change.},
author = {Jackson, Lawrence S and Finney, Declan L and Kendon, Elizabeth J and Marsham, John H and Parker, Douglas J. and Stratton, Rachel A. and Tomassini, Lorenzo and Tucker, Simon},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0322.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {8315--8337},
title = {{The Effect of Explicit Convection on Couplings between Rainfall, Humidity, and Ascent over Africa under Climate Change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0322.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0322.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Jacob2014,
abstract = {A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities. {\textcopyright} 2013 The Author(s).},
author = {Jacob, Daniela and Petersen, Juliane and Eggert, Bastian and Alias, Antoinette and Christensen, Ole B{\o}ssing and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Braun, Alain and Colette, Augustin and D{\'{e}}qu{\'{e}}, Michel and Georgievski, Goran and Georgopoulou, Elena and Gobiet, Andreas and Menut, Laurent and Nikulin, Grigory and Haensler, Andreas and Hempelmann, Nils and Jones, Colin and Keuler, Klaus and Kovats, Sari and Kr{\"{o}}ner, Nico and Kotlarski, Sven and Kriegsmann, Arne and Martin, Eric and van Meijgaard, Erik and Moseley, Christopher and Pfeifer, Susanne and Preuschmann, Swantje and Radermacher, Christine and Radtke, Kai and Rechid, Diana and Rounsevell, Mark and Samuelsson, Patrick and Somot, Samuel and Soussana, Jean Francois and Teichmann, Claas and Valentini, Riccardo and Vautard, Robert and Weber, Bj{\"{o}}rn and Yiou, Pascal},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2},
isbn = {1436-3798},
issn = {1436378X},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
keywords = {Dry spells,EURO-Heat wave,Heavy precipitation,Impact indices,Regional climate change},
number = {2},
pages = {563--578},
title = {{EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research}},
volume = {14},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Jakob2019,
abstract = {Radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) describes a balance between the cooling of the atmosphere by radiation and the heating through latent heat release and surface heat fluxes. While RCE is known to provide an energetic constraint on the atmosphere at the global scale, little is known about the proximity of the atmosphere to RCE at smaller spatial and temporal scales, despite the common use of RCE in idealized modeling studies. Here we provide the first observational evaluation of the scales at which the atmosphere is near RCE. We further use observations of cloud characteristics to investigate the role played by organized convection in the RCE state. While the tropical atmosphere as a whole is near RCE on daily time scales and longer, this is not the case for any given location. Rather, areas in excess of 5,000 × 5,000 km2 must be considered to ensure the atmosphere remains near RCE at least 80{\%} of the time, even for monthly averaged conditions. We confirm that RCE is established through the interplay of regions of active deep convection with high precipitation and weak radiative cooling and regions of subsiding motions leading to shallow cloud states that allow strong radiative cooling with no precipitation. The asymmetry in the maximum amount of radiative cooling and latent heating leads to the well-known ratio of small areas of precipitation and large regions of subsidence observed in the tropics. Finally, we show that organized deep convection does not occur when regions smaller than 1,000 × 1,000 km2 are near RCE.},
author = {Jakob, C. and Singh, M. S. and Jungandreas, L.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD030092},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {climate,radiation,tropics},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5418--5430},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Radiative Convective Equilibrium and Organized Convection: An Observational Perspective}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030092},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Jalihal2019,
abstract = {To predict how monsoons will evolve in the 21st century, we need to understand how they have changed in the past. In paleoclimate literature, the major focus has been on the role of solar forcing on monsoons but not on the amplification by feedbacks internal to the climate system. Here we have used the results from a transient climate simulation to show that feedbacks amplify the effect of change in insolation on the Indian summer monsoon. We show that during the deglacial (22 ka to 10 ka) monsoons were predominantly influenced by rising water vapor due to increasing sea surface temperature, whereas in the Holocene (10 ka to 0 ka) cloud feedback was more important. These results are consistent with another transient simulation, thus increasing confidence despite potential model biases. We have demonstrated that insolation drives monsoon through different pathways during cold and warm periods, thereby highlighting the changing role of internal factors.},
author = {Jalihal, Chetankumar and Srinivasan, Jayaraman and Chakraborty, Arindam},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-13754-6},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {5701},
pmid = {31836715},
title = {{Modulation of Indian monsoon by water vapor and cloud feedback over the past 22,000 years}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13754-6},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{James2017,
abstract = {The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warm-ing levels: well below 2 C and 1.5 C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5 C and 2 C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals asso-ciated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they consti-tute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub-selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2 C with 1.5 C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming incre-ments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechan-isms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time-lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways.},
author = {James, Rachel and Washington, Richard and Schleussner, Carl‐Friedrich and Rogelj, Joeri and Conway, Declan},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.457},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {e457},
title = {{Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.457},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Jansen2007,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Jansen, Eystein and Overpeck, Jonathan and Briffa, K R and Duplessy, J C and Joos, F and Masson-Delmotte, V and Olago, D and Otto-Bliesner, B and Peltier, W R and Rahmstorf, S and Others},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
editor = {Solomon, S and Qin, D and Manning, M and Chen, Z and Marquis, M and Averyt, K B and Tignor, M and Miller, H L},
isbn = {9780521880091},
pages = {434--497},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Palaeoclimate}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1},
year = {2007}
}
@article{jt15,
author = {Jasechko, S and Taylor, R G},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124015},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {12401},
pages = {5},
title = {{Intensive rainfall recharges tropical groundwaters}},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Jeevanjee2018PNAS,
abstract = {Global climate models robustly predict that global mean precipitation should increase at roughly 2–3{\%} K − 1 , but the origin of these values is not well understood. Here we develop a simple theory to help explain these values. This theory combines the well-known radiative constraint on precipitation, which says that condensation heating from precipitation is balanced by the net radiative cooling of the free troposphere, with an invariance of radiative cooling profiles when expressed in temperature coordinates. These two constraints yield a picture in which mean precipitation is controlled primarily by the depth of the troposphere, when measured in temperature coordinates. We develop this theory in idealized simulations of radiative–convective equilibrium and also demonstrate its applicability to global climate models.},
annote = {radiative constraint on global precipitation increases with warming linked to increased tropospheric depth using idealized simulations of radiative–convective equilibrium},
author = {Jeevanjee, Nadir and Romps, David M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1720683115},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {45},
pages = {11465--11470},
publisher = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Mean precipitation change from a deepening troposphere}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1720683115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Jefferson2015,
abstract = {Large-eddy simulation is used to study the sensitivity of trade wind cumulus clouds to pertur-bations in cloud droplet number concentrations. We find that the trade wind cumulus system approaches a radiative-convective equilibrium state, modified by net warming and drying from imposed large-scale advective forcing. The system requires several days to reach equilibrium when cooling rates are specified but much less time, and with less sensitivity to cloud droplet number density, when radiation depends real-istically on the vertical distribution of water vapor. The transient behavior and the properties of the near-equilibrium cloud field depend on the microphysical state and therefore on the cloud droplet number den-sity, here taken as a proxy for the ambient aerosol. The primary response of the cloud field to changes in the cloud droplet number density is deepening of the cloud layer. This deepening leads to a decrease in rel-ative humidity and a faster evaporation of small clouds and cloud remnants constituting a negative lifetime effect. In the near-equilibrium regime, the decrease in cloud cover compensates much of the Twomey effect, i.e., the brightening of the clouds, and the overall aerosol effect on the albedo of the organized pre-cipitating cumulus cloud field is small.},
author = {Jefferson, Jennifer L. and Maxwell, Reed M.},
doi = {10.1002/2014MS000398},
isbn = {0140917101},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {1075--1092},
pmid = {368739800014},
title = {{Evaluation of simple to complex parameterizations of bare ground evaporation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013MS000282 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014MS000398},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Jemai2018,
abstract = {This study examines spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Bizerte-Ichkeul Watershed. The basin, located in the extreme 2 north of Tunisia, covers an area of 3084 km . Thirteen rainfall stations, with continuous monthly precipitation records over the period (1970–2011), were considered in the analysis. Two methods were used. In the first, the dimensionless standardized precipitation ratio is applied to examine precipitation temporal variation. The second method is represented by continuous wavelet analysis for the precipitation spatial analysis and the identification of the origin of its variability. The study of temporal variability of annual rainfall showed severe persistent and recurrent drought episodes over the period (1977–2001). Wavelet analysis resulted in detecting the modes and origins of precipitation variability. Three energy bands were clearly identified: (1, 2– 4, and 4–8 years) for the entire watershed. The visualization of the power distribution showed that the observed modes of variability are different in their power distributions from one station to another. The approach adopted allowed the identification of two groups with the same precipitation frequency and temporal variation. These groups were defined according to the difference in occurrence of the frequency band for each station.},
author = {Jemai, Hiba and Ellouze, Manel and Abida, Habib and Laignel, Benoit},
doi = {10.1007/s12517-018-3482-x},
issn = {1866-7511},
journal = {Arabian Journal of Geosciences},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {177},
title = {{Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall: case of Bizerte-Ichkeul Basin (Northern Tunisia)}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12517-018-3482-x},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Jia2020a,
author = {Jia, G. and Shevliakova, E. and Artaxo, P. and Noblet-Ducoudr{\'{e}}, N. De and Houghton, R. and House, J. and Kitajima, K. and Lennard, C. and Popp, A. and Sirin, A. and Sukumar, R. and Verchot, L.},
booktitle = {Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems},
chapter = {2},
editor = {Shukla, P.R. and Skea, J. and {Calvo Buendia}, E. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Zhai, P. and Slade, R. and Connors, S. and van Diemen, R. and Ferrat, M. and Haughey, E. and Luz, S. and Neogi, S. and Pathak, M. and Petzold, J. and {Portugal Pereira}, J. and Vyas, P. and Huntley, E. and Kissick, K. and Belkacemi, M. and Malley, J.},
pages = {131--247},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Land–climate interactions}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Jiang2016a,
abstract = {Extreme precipitation has been reported to occur more frequently, and intensified extreme precipitation can cause considerable socioeconomic losses. Extreme precipitation can be measured by the concentration index (CI) and the precipitation concentration index (PCI). The former indicates the degree to which daily precipitation is unevenly distributed in the time domain, and the latter represents the degree to which monthly precipitation is unevenly distributed throughout the year. In this paper, we analyzed spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation by using CI and PCI and examined whether links exist between extreme precipitation and urban extent. We found that the spatial patterns of PCI and CI are different over China. The two are consistent in being high in Northeast China and low in Southwest China. However, they differ significantly; Northwest China is where CI is low but PCI is high, which indicates that precipitation is highly concentrated in a few months of the year, but daily precipitation is more evenly distributed during the wet season in Northwest China. The trends of both PCI and annual CI are spatially heterogeneous and are significant at the 90 {\{}{\%}{\}} confidence level for approximately 20 {\{}{\%}{\}} of China, and seasonal CI exhibits very different trends. Possible links between precipitation concentration and urbanization are investigated by analyzing the correlation coefficient between CI (PCI) and population density. Precipitation concentration is found positively correlated with urbanization at the 99 {\{}{\%}{\}} confidence level in the three selected regions.},
author = {Jiang, Peng and Wang, Dagang and Cao, Yongqiang},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-015-1393-2},
issn = {14344483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {757--768},
title = {{Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation concentration and their possible links to urban extent in China}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-015-1393-2},
volume = {123},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Jiang2015a,
author = {Jiang, Xianan and Waliser, Duane E. and Xavier, Prince K. and Petch, Jon and Klingaman, Nicholas P. and Woolnough, Steven J. and Guan, Bin and Bellon, Gilles and Crueger, Traute and DeMott, Charlotte and Hannay, Cecile and Lin, Hai and Hu, Wenting and Kim, Daehyun and Lappen, Cara-Lyn and Lu, Mong-Ming and Ma, Hsi-Yen and Miyakawa, Tomoki and Ridout, James A. and Schubert, Siegfried D. and Scinocca, John and Seo, Kyong-Hwan and Shindo, Eiki and Song, Xiaoliang and Stan, Cristiana and Tseng, Wan-Ling and Wang, Wanqiu and Wu, Tongwen and Wu, Xiaoqing and Wyser, Klaus and Zhang, Guang J. and Zhu, Hongyan},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD022375},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {4718--4748},
title = {{Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden–Julian oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD022375},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Jiang2020,
abstract = {Since its discovery in the early 1970s, the crucial role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the global hydrological cycle and its tremendous influence on high-impact climate and weather extremes have been well recognized. The MJO also serves as a primary source of predictability for global Earth system variability on subseasonal time scales. The MJO remains poorly represented in our state-of-the-art climate and weather forecasting models, however. Moreover, despite the advances made in recent decades, theories for the MJO still disagree at a fundamental level. The problems of understanding and modeling the MJO have attracted significant interest from the research community. As a part of the  this article provides a review of recent progress, particularly over the last decade, in observational, modeling, and theoretical study of the MJO. A brief outlook for near-future MJO research directions is also provided.},
author = {Jiang, Xianan and Adames, {\'{A}}ngel F. and Kim, Daehyun and Maloney, Eric D. and Lin, Hai and Kim, Hyemi and Zhang, Chidong and DeMott, Charlotte A. and Klingaman, Nicholas P.},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD030911},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jul},
number = {17},
pages = {e2019JD030911},
title = {{Fifty Years of Research on the Madden–Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD030911},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{JimenezCisneros2014,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {{Jim{\'{e}}nez Cisneros}, B.E. and Oki, T. and Arnell, N.W. and Benito, G. and Cogley, J.G. and D{\"{o}}ll, P. and Jiang, T. and Mwakalila, S.S.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415379.008},
editor = {Field, C B and Barros, V R and Dokken, D J and Mach, K J and Mastrandrea, M D and Bilir, T E and Chatterjee, M and Ebi, K L and Estrada, Y O and Genova, R C and Girma, B and Kissel, E S and Levy, A N and MacCracken, S and Mastrandrea, P R and White, L L},
isbn = {9781107058071},
pages = {229--269},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Freshwater resources}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Jin2017,
author = {Jin, Qinjian and Wang, Chien},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3348},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {8},
pages = {587--594},
title = {{A revival of Indian summer monsoon rainfall since 2002}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3348},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Jin2017a,
author = {Jin, Dachao and Guan, Zhaoyong},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0760.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6629--6643},
title = {{Summer Rainfall Seesaw between Hetao and the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River and Its Relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0760.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0236.1,
abstract = {An accurate prediction of land monsoon precipitation (LMP) is critical for the sustainable future of the planet as it provides water resources for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here, we show that the ensemble mean of 24 CMIP6 (phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models projects that, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5) scenario, summer LMP will very likely increase in South Asia ({\~{}}4.1$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} °C−1), likely increase in East Asia ({\~{}}4.6$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} °C−1) and northern Africa ({\~{}}2.9$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} °C−1), and likely decrease in North America ({\~{}}−2.3$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} °C−1). The annual mean LMP in three Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions will likely remain unchanged due to significantly decreased winter precipitation. Regional mean LMP changes are dominated by the change in upward moisture transport with moderate contribution from evaporation and can be approximated by the changes of the product of the midtropospheric ascent and 850-hPa specific humidity. Greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced thermodynamic effects increase moisture content and stabilize the atmosphere, tending to offset each other. The spatially uniform increase of humidity cannot explain markedly different regional LMP changes. Intermodel spread analysis demonstrates that the GHG-induced circulation changes (dynamic effects) are primarily responsible for the regional differences. The GHGs induce a warm land–cool ocean pattern that strengthens the Asian monsoon, and a warm North Atlantic and Sahara that enhances the northern African monsoon, as well as an equatorial central Pacific warming that weakens the North American monsoon. CMIP6 models generally capture realistic monsoon rainfall climatology, but commonly overproduce summer rainfall variability. The models' biases in projected regional SST and land–sea thermal contrast likely contribute to the models' uncertainties in the projected monsoon rainfall changes.},
author = {Jin, Chunhan and Wang, Bin and Liu, Jian},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0236.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {21},
pages = {9307--9326},
title = {{Future Changes and Controlling Factors of the Eight Regional Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0236.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Jing2017a,
author = {Jing, Xianwen and Suzuki, Kentaroh and Guo, Huan and Goto, Daisuke and Ogura, Tomoo and Koshiro, Tsuyoshi and M{\"{u}}lmenst{\"{a}}dt, Johannes},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027310},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11,806--11,824},
title = {{A Multimodel Study on Warm Precipitation Biases in Global Models Compared to Satellite Observations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017JD027310},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Joetzjer2014,
abstract = {While a majority of global climate models project drier and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC (Interaction Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere Carbon Cycle) land surface model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different water stress functions (WSFs) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentrations, the increased water-use efficiency (WUE) mitigates the sensitivity of ISBACC to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulations improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed.},
author = {Joetzjer, E. and Delire, C. and Douville, H. and Ciais, P. and Decharme, B. and Fisher, R. and Christoffersen, B. and Calvet, J. C. and {Da Costa}, A. C.L. and Ferreira, L. V. and Meir, P.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-7-2933-2014},
isbn = {1991-959X},
issn = {19919603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {6},
pages = {2933--2950},
title = {{Predicting the response of the Amazon rainforest to persistent drought conditions under current and future climates: A major challenge for global land surface models}},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Johnson2016b,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2015, The Author(s). The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world's population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200–40 km at the equator (N96–N512, 1.9°–0.35°). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution-related processes cause these changes, we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts.},
author = {Johnson, Stephanie J. and Levine, Richard C. and Turner, Andrew G. and Martin, Gill M. and Woolnough, Steven J. and Schiemann, Reinhard and Mizielinski, Matthew S. and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Demory, Marie Estelle and Strachan, Jane},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2614-1},
isbn = {0038201526},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {African highlands,Asian monsoon,High resolution,Maritime Continent,Monsoon depressions,Orography},
number = {3-4},
pages = {807--831},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35° AGCM}},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Jolly:1998,
author = {Jolly, Dominique and Prentice, I Colin and Bonnefille, Raymonde and Ballouche, Aziz and Bengo, Martin and Brenac, Patrice and Buchet, Guillaume and Burney, David and Cazet, Jean-Pierre and Cheddadi, Rachid and Others},
doi = {10.1046/j.1365-2699.1998.00238.x},
journal = {Journal of Biogeography},
number = {6},
pages = {1007--1027},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Biome reconstruction from pollen and plant macrofossil data for Africa and the Arabian peninsula at 0 and 6000 years}},
volume = {25},
year = {1998}
}
@article{Jones2013,
abstract = {The South American monsoon system (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America. This study focuses on the large-scale characteristics of the SAMS: seasonal amplitudes, onset and demise dates, and durations. Changes in the SAMS are investigated with the gridded precipitation. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations for two scenarios ["historical" and high-emission representative concentration pathways (rcp8.5)]. Oualitative comparisons with a previous study indicate that some CM1P5 models have significantly improved their representation of the S-AMS relative to their CMIP3 versions. Some models exhibit persistent deficiencies in simulating the SAMS. CMIP5 model simulations for the historical experiment show signals of climate change in South America. While the observational data show trends, the period used is too short for final conclusions concerning climate change. Future changes in the SAMS are analyzed with six CMIP5 model simulations of the rcp8.5 high-emission scenario. Most of the simulations show significant increases in sea- sonal amplitudes, early onsets, late demises, and durations of the SAMS. The simulations for this scenario project a 30{\%} increase in the amplitude from the current level by 2045-50. In addition, the rcp8.5 scenario projects an ensemble mean decrease of 14 days in the onset and 17-day increase in the demise date of the SAMS by 2045-50. The results additionally indicate lack of spatial agreement in model projections of changes in total wet-season precipitation over South America during 2070-2100. The most consistent CMIP5 pro- jections analyzed here are the increase in the total monsoon precipitation over southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina.},
author = {Jones, Charles and Carvalho, Leila M.V. V.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00412.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6660--6678},
title = {{Climate Change in the South American Monsoon System: Present Climate and CMIP5 Projections}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00412.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Friedlingstein2014JClim,
abstract = { AbstractIn the context of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, most climate simulations use prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore do not interactively include the effect of carbon cycle feedbacks. However, the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario has additionally been run by earth system models with prescribed CO2 emissions. This paper analyzes the climate projections of 11 earth system models (ESMs) that performed both emission-driven and concentration-driven RCP8.5 simulations. When forced by RCP8.5 CO2 emissions, models simulate a large spread in atmospheric CO2; the simulated 2100 concentrations range between 795 and 1145 ppm. Seven out of the 11 ESMs simulate a larger CO2 (on average by 44 ppm, 985 {\$}\backslashpm{\$} 97 ppm by 2100) and hence higher radiative forcing (by 0.25 W m−2) when driven by CO2 emissions than for the concentration-driven scenarios (941 ppm). However, most of these models already overestimate the present-day CO2, with the present-day biases reasonably well correlated with future atmospheric concentrations' departure from the prescribed concentration. The uncertainty in CO2 projections is mainly attributable to uncertainties in the response of the land carbon cycle. As a result of simulated higher CO2 concentrations than in the concentration-driven simulations, temperature projections are generally higher when ESMs are driven with CO2 emissions. Global surface temperature change by 2100 (relative to present day) increased by 3.9{\$}\backslash,{\^{}}{\{}\backslashcirc{\}}{\$} {\$}\backslashpm{\$} 0.9{\$}\backslash,{\^{}}{\{}\backslashcirc{\}}{\$}C for the emission-driven simulations compared to 3.7{\$}\backslash,{\^{}}{\{}\backslashcirc{\}}{\$} {\$}\backslashpm{\$} 0.7{\$}\backslash,{\^{}}{\{}\backslashcirc{\}}{\$}C in the concentration-driven simulations. Although the lower ends are comparable in both sets of simulations, the highest climate projections are significantly warmer in the emission-driven simulations because of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks. },
author = {Jones, Chris D. and Liddicoat, Spencer K. and Meinshausen, Malte and Knutti, Reto and Anav, Alessandro and Arora, Vivek K. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Meinshausen, Malte and Arora, Vivek K. and Jones, Chris D. and Anav, Alessandro and Liddicoat, Spencer K. and Knutti, Reto and Meinshausen, Malte and Knutti, Reto and Anav, Alessandro and Arora, Vivek K. and Friedlingstein, Pierre},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-12-00579.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {511--526},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2Fjcli-d-12-00579.1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00579.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Jones2013c,
author = {Jones, Andy and Haywood, Jim M and Alterskjaer, Kari and Boucher, Olivier and Cole, Jason N S and Curry, Charles L and Irvine, Peter J and Ji, Duoying and Kravitz, Ben and {Egill Kristj{\'{a}}nsson}, J{\'{o}}n and Moore, John C and Niemeier, Ulrike and Robock, Alan and Schmidt, Hauke and Singh, Balwinder and Tilmes, Simone and Watanabe, Shingo and Yoon, Jin-ho},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50762},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {9743--9752},
title = {{The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jgrd.50762},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Joseph2016,
abstract = {Abstract The measurement and simulation of water vapor isotopic composition has matured rapidly over the last decade, with long-term data sets and comprehensive modeling capabilities now available. Theories for water vapor isotopic composition have been developed by extending the theories that have been used for the isotopic composition of precipitation to include a more nuanced understanding of evaporation, large-scale mixing, deep convection, and kinetic fractionation. The technologies for in situ and remote sensing measurements of water vapor isotopic composition have developed especially rapidly over the last decade, with discrete water vapor sampling methods, based on mass spectroscopy, giving way to laser spectroscopic methods and satellite- and ground-based infrared absorption techniques. The simulation of water vapor isotopic composition has evolved from General Circulation Model (GCM) methods for simulating precipitation isotopic composition to sophisticated isotope-enabled microphysics schemes using higher-order moments for water and ice size distributions. The incorporation of isotopes into GCMs has enabled more detailed diagnostics of the water cycle and has led to improvements in its simulation. The combination of improved measurement and modeling of water vapor isotopic composition opens the door to new advances in our understanding of the atmospheric water cycle, in processes ranging from the marine boundary layer, through deep convection and tropospheric mixing, and into the water cycle of the stratosphere. Finally, studies of the processes governing modern water vapor isotopic composition provide an improved framework for the interpretation of paleoclimate proxy records of the hydrological cycle.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/2015RG000512},
author = {Joseph, Galewsky and Christian, Steen-Larsen Hans and D., Field Robert and John, Worden and Camille, Risi and Matthias, Schneider},
doi = {10.1002/2015RG000512},
issn = {8755-1209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {cavity ringdown spectroscopy,general circulation modeling,hydrologic cycle,remote sensing,stable isotopes,water vapor},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {809--865},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Stable isotopes in atmospheric water vapor and applications to the hydrologic cycle}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000512},
volume = {54},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Joshi2013a,
author = {Joshi, Manoj M and Turner, Andrew G and Hope, Chris},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0715-6},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {951--960},
title = {{The use of the land–sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0715-6},
volume = {117},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Jourdain2013,
author = {Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Gupta, Alexander Sen and Taschetto, Andr{\'{e}}a S. and Ummenhofer, Caroline C. and Moise, Aurel F. and Ashok, Karumuri},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1676-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {11-12},
pages = {3073--3102},
title = {{The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-013-1676-1},
volume = {41},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Jung2006,
abstract = {The sensitivity to horizontal resolution of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclone characteristics during the wintertime (December--March) is investigated using a set of seasonal forecasts (1982--2001) with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. Three different horizontal resolutions (TL95, TL159 and TL255) are employed. In order to test the realism of the simulations, the model results are compared with those obtained from ERA-40 re-analysis data. The cyclone tracking is accomplished by applying an automatic tracking scheme to six-hourly mean-sea-level pressure data. It is shown that many of the key characteristics of extratropical cyclones in the ECMWF model are highly sensitive to horizontal resolution, with the low-resolution version (TL95), for example, simulating only about 60{\%} of the re-analysed total number of extratropical cyclones. Regions found to be particularly sensitive include the northern Pacific, the Arctic, Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, as well as the Mediterranean Sea. For the latter region it is shown that even the relatively high-resolution version of the model (TL255) significantly underestimates the number of cases of Genoa cyclogenesis. Furthermore, it is shown that in some regions, such as the entrance regions of the major northern hemisphere storm tracks, model deficits are insensitive to increases in horizontal resolution. The same analysis has been repeated for the high-resolution operational ECMWF analysis (2000--2004), truncated at different total wave numbers (TL95, TL159, TL255 and TL511) in order to separate dynamical effects of differences in resolution from those due to pure spectral truncation. It is found that the dynamical effect of changing horizontal resolution dominates over the truncation effect for intense cyclones, whereas the truncation effect dominates for shallow cyclones. Copyright {\{}$\backslash$copyright{\}} 2006 Royal Meteorological Society},
author = {Jung, T. and Gulev, S. K. and Rudeva, I. and Soloviov, V.},
doi = {10.1256/qj.05.212},
isbn = {00359009 1477870X},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {Cyclogenesis,Cyclone frequencies,Cyclone tracking,ERA-40 re-analysis,Orography,Seasonal forecasting,Storm tracks,Systematic error},
month = {jul},
number = {619},
pages = {1839--1857},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Sensitivity of extratropical cyclone characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1256/qj.05.212},
volume = {132},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Junk2013,
abstract = {Wetlands cover at least 6 {\%} of the Earth's surface. They play a key role in hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, harbour a large part of the world's biodiversity, and provide multiple services to humankind. However, pressure in the form of land reclamation, intense resource exploitation, changes in hydrology, and pollution threaten wetlands on all continents. Depending on the region, 30-90 {\%} of the world's wetlands have already been destroyed or strongly modified in many countries with no sign of abatement. Climate change scenarios predict additional stresses on wetlands, mainly because of changes in hydrology, temperature increases, and a rise in sea level. Yet, intact wetlands play a key role as buffers in the hydrological cycle and as sinks for organic carbon, counteracting the effects of the increase in atmospheric CO2. Eight chapters comprising this volume of Aquatic Sciences analyze the current ecological situation and the use of the wetlands in major regions of the world in the context of global climate change. This final chapter provides a synthesis of the findings and recommendations for the sustainable use and protection of these important ecosystems. {\textcopyright} 2012 Springer Basel.},
author = {Junk, Wolfgang J. and An, Shuqing and Finlayson, C. M. and Gopal, Brij and Kv{\v{e}}t, Jan and Mitchell, Stephen A. and Mitsch, William J. and Robarts, Richard D.},
doi = {10.1007/s00027-012-0278-z},
issn = {1015-1621},
journal = {Aquatic Sciences},
keywords = {Climate change,Distribution,Management,Threats,Wetlands},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {151--167},
title = {{Current state of knowledge regarding the world's wetlands and their future under global climate change: a synthesis}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00027-012-0278-z},
volume = {75},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Kageyama2013,
abstract = {Fresh water hosing simulations, in which a fresh water flux is imposed in the North Atlantic to force fluctu-ations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, have been routinely performed, first to study the climatic signature of different states of this circulation, then, under present or future conditions, to investigate the potential im-pact of a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The most compelling examples of climatic changes potentially related to AMOC abrupt variations, however, are found in high res-olution palaeo-records from around the globe for the last glacial period. To study those more specifically, more and more fresh water hosing experiments have been performed under glacial conditions in the recent years. Here we com-pare an ensemble constituted by 11 such simulations run with 6 different climate models. All simulations follow a slightly different design, but are sufficiently close in their design to be compared. They all study the impact of a fresh water hosing imposed in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. Common fea-tures in the model responses to hosing are the cooling over the North Atlantic, extending along the sub-tropical gyre in the tropical North Atlantic, the southward shift of the At-lantic ITCZ and the weakening of the African and Indian monsoons. On the other hand, the expression of the bipo-lar see-saw, i.e., warming in the Southern Hemisphere, dif-fers from model to model, with some restricting it to the South Atlantic and specific regions of the southern ocean while others simulate a widespread southern ocean warm-ing. The relationships between the features common to most models, i.e., climate changes over the north and tropical At-lantic, African and Asian monsoon regions, are further quan-tified. These suggest a tight correlation between the temper-ature and precipitation changes over the extra-tropical North Atlantic, but different pathways for the teleconnections be-tween the AMOC/North Atlantic region and the African and Indian monsoon regions.},
author = {Kageyama, M. and Merkel, U. and Otto-Bliesner, B. and Prange, M. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Lohmann, G. and Ohgaito, R. and Roche, D. M. and Singarayer, J. and Swingedouw, D. and Zhang, X.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-9-935-2013},
isbn = {1814-9332},
issn = {18149324},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {2},
pages = {935--953},
pmid = {319840900003},
title = {{Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under last glacial Maximum conditions: A multi-model study}},
volume = {9},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Kageyama2018a,
abstract = {Abstract. This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) – Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016).The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.},
author = {Kageyama, Masa and Braconnot, Pascale and Harrison, Sandy P. and Haywood, Alan M. and Jungclaus, Johann H. and Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. and Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Albani, Samuel and Bartlein, Patrick J. and Brierley, Chris and Crucifix, Michel and Dolan, Aisling and Fernandez-Donado, Laura and Fischer, Hubertus and Hopcroft, Peter O. and Ivanovic, Ruza F. and Lambert, Fabrice and Lunt, Daniel J. and Mahowald, Natalie M. and Peltier, W. Richard and Phipps, Steven J. and Roche, Didier M. and Schmidt, Gavin A. and Tarasov, Lev and Valdes, Paul J. and Zhang, Qiong and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1033--1057},
title = {{The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/11/1033/2018/},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kalimeris2017,
author = {Kalimeris, Anastasios and Ranieri, Ezio and Founda, Dimitra and Norrant, Caroline},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.031},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
month = {dec},
pages = {56--80},
title = {{Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809517302934},
volume = {198},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kam2018,
abstract = {Over regions where snowmelt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snowmelt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by the brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, the detection/attribution of changes in midlatitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. Robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability are evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central United States, where winter-spring streamflows have been starting earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western United States/southwestern Canada and in the extreme northeastern United States/Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments.},
author = {Kam, Jonghun and Knutson, Thomas R. and Milly, P. C.D.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0813.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Anthropogenic effects,Hydrology,Model comparison,Model evaluation/performance,Trends},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {5581--5593},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0813.s1.},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kamae2019ERL,
abstract = {Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense water vapor transports associated with extra-tropical cyclones, frequently bring heavy rainfalls over mid-latitudes. Over East Asia, landfalling ARs result in major socio-economic impacts including widespread floods and landslides; for example, western Japan heavy rainfall in July 2018 killed more than 200 people. Using results of high-resolution atmospheric model ensemble simulations, we examine projected future change in summertime AR frequency over East Asia. Different sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns derived from six atmosphere–ocean coupled model simulations were assumed to represent uncertainty in future SST projections. The rate of increase in the frequency of landfalling ARs over summertime East Asia is on average 0.9{\%} K–1 and is dependent on SST warming patterns. Stronger warming over the North Indian Ocean and South China Sea or weaker warming over the tropical central Pacific produce more frequent landfalling ARs over East Asia. These patterns are similar to the co-variability of SST, atmospheric circulation, and ARs over the western North Pacific found on the interannual time scale. The results of this study suggest that the natural disaster risk related to landfalling ARs should increase over East Asia under global warming and SSTs over the Indo-Pacific region holds the key for a quantitative projection.},
annote = {1{\%} increase in frequency of atmospheric rivers affecting east Asia per oC of warming but this is strongly affected by the pattern of warming},
author = {Kamae, Youichi and Mei, Wei and Xie, Shang-Ping},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab128a},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {54019},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab128a},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kamae2017a,
abstract = {Atmospheric rivers (ARs), conduits of intense water vapor transport in the midlatitudes, are critically important for water resources and heavy rainfall events over the west coast of North America, Europe, and Africa. ARs are also frequently observed over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) during boreal summer but have not been studied comprehensively. Here the climatology, seasonal variation, interannual variability, and predictability of NWP ARs (NWPARs) are examined by using a large ensemble, high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulation and a global atmospheric reanalysis. The AGCM captures general characteristics of climatology and variability compared to the reanalysis, suggesting a strong sea surface temperature (SST) effect on NWPARs. The summertime NWPAR occurrences are tightly related to El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the preceding winter through Indo–western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effects. An enhanced East Asian summer monsoon and a low-level anticyclonic anomaly over the tropical western North Pacific in the post–El Ni{\~{n}}o summer reinforce low-level water vapor transport from the tropics with increased occurrence of NWPARs. The strong coupling with ENSO and IPOC indicates a high predictability of anomalous summertime NWPAR activity.},
author = {Kamae, Youichi and Mei, Wei and Xie, Shang-Ping and Naoi, Moeka and Ueda, Hiroaki},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0875.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {15},
pages = {5605--5619},
title = {{Atmospheric Rivers over the Northwestern Pacific: Climatology and Interannual Variability}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0875.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kanemaru2017,
abstract = {AbstractPrecipitation observation with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM's) precipitation radar (PR) lasted for more than 17 years. To study the changes in the water and energy cycle related to interannual and decadal variabilities of climate, homogeneity of long-term PR data is essential. The aim of the study is to develop a precipitation climate record from the 17-yr PR observation. The focus was on mitigating the discontinuities associated with the switching to redundant electronics in the PR in June 2009. In version 7 of the level-1 PR product, a discontinuity in noise power is found at this timing, indicating a change in the signal-to-noise ratio. To mitigate the effect of this discontinuity on climate studies, the noise power of the B-side PR obtained after June 2009 is artificially increased to match that of the A-side PR. Simulation results show that the storm height and the precipitation frequency detected by the PR relatively decrease by 2.17{\%} and 5.15{\%} in the TRMM coverage area (3...},
author = {Kanemaru, Kaya and Kubota, Takuji and Iguchi, Toshio and Takayabu, Yukari N. and Oki, Riko and Kanemaru, Kaya and Kubota, Takuji and Iguchi, Toshio and Takayabu, Yukari N. and Oki, Riko},
doi = {10.1175/JTECH-D-17-0026.1},
issn = {0739-0572},
journal = {Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology},
keywords = {Algorithms,Climate records,Satellite observations},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {2043--2057},
title = {{Development of a Precipitation Climate Record from Spaceborne Precipitation Radar Data. Part I: Mitigation of the Effects of Switching to Redundancy Electronics in the TRMM Precipitation Radar}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JTECH-D-17-0026.1},
volume = {34},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kang2013,
abstract = {The uncertainty arising from internal climate variability in climate change projections of the Hadley circulation (HC) is presently unknown. In this paper it is quantified by analyzing a 40-member ensemble of integrations of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario over the period 2000–60. An additional set of 100-yr-long time-slice integrations with the atmospheric component of the same model [Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.0 (CAM3)] is also analyzed.},
author = {Kang, Sarah M. and Deser, Clara and Polvani, Lorenzo M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00788.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Atmospheric circulation,Climate variability,Hadley circulation,Trends},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {7541--7554},
title = {{Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections of the Hadley Circulation: The Role of Internal Variability}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00788.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Kang2018,
author = {Kang, Shugang and Wang, Xulong and Roberts, Helen M. and Duller, Geoff A.T. and Cheng, Peng and Lu, Yanchou and An, Zhisheng},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.028},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
month = {may},
pages = {28--36},
title = {{Late Holocene anti-phase change in the East Asian summer and winter monsoons}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379117309745},
volume = {188},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kang2011,
author = {Kang, Sarah M. and Polvani, Lorenzo M.},
doi = {10.1175/2010JCLI4077.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {563--568},
title = {{The Interannual Relationship between the Latitude of the Eddy-Driven Jet and the Edge of the Hadley Cell}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI4077.1},
volume = {24},
year = {2011}
}
@article{kang_et_al_2008,
abstract = {Using a comprehensive atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean, experiments are performed to study the mechanism by which displacements of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) are forced from the extratropics. The northern extratropics are cooled and the southern extratropics are warmed by an imposed cross-equatorial flux beneath the mixed layer, forcing a southward shift in the ITCZ. The ITCZ displacement can be understood in terms of the degree of compensation between the imposed oceanic flux and the resulting response in the atmospheric energy transport in the tropics. The magnitude of the ITCZ displacement is very sensitive to a parameter in the convection scheme that limits the entrainment into convective plumes. The change in the convection scheme affects the extratropical-tropical interactions in the model primarily by modifying the cloud response. The results raise the possibility that the response of tropical precipitation to extratropical thermal forcing, important for a variety of problems in climate dynamics (such as the response of the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during glacial maxima or to variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation), may be strongly dependent on cloud feedback. The model configuration described here is suggested as a useful benchmark helping to quantify extratropical-tropical interactions in atmospheric models. {\textcopyright} 2008 American Meteorological Society.},
author = {Kang, Sarah M. and Held, Isaac M. and Frierson, Dargan M.W. and Zhao, Ming},
doi = {10.1175/2007JCLI2146.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {14},
pages = {3521--3532},
title = {{The response of the ITCZ to extratropical thermal forcing: Idealized slab-ocean experiments with a GCM}},
volume = {21},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Kang2016,
abstract = {With its headwaters in the water towers of the western Cordillera of North America, the Fraser River is one of the continent's mightiest rivers by annual flows, supplies vital freshwater resources to populous downstream locations, and sustains the world's largest stocks of sockeye salmon along with four other salmon species. Here we show the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model's ability to reproduce accurately observed trends in daily streamflow for the Fraser River's main stem and six of its major tributaries over 1949-2006 when air temperatures rose by 1.4 °C while annual precipitation amounts remained stable. Rapidly declining mountain snowpacks and earlier melt onsets result in a 10-day advance of the Fraser River's spring freshet with subsequent reductions in summer flows when up-river salmon migrations occur. Identification of the sub-basins driving the Fraser River's most significant changes provides a measure of seasonal predictability of future floods or droughts in a changing climate.},
author = {Kang, Do Hyuk and Gao, Huilin and Shi, Xiaogang and Islam, Siraj Ul and D{\'{e}}ry, Stephen J.},
doi = {10.1038/srep19299},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Climate and Earth system modelling,Cryospheric science,Hydrology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--8},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Impacts of a Rapidly Declining Mountain Snowpack on Streamflow Timing in Canada's Fraser River Basin}},
url = {www.nature.com/scientificreports},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Kanji2017,
abstract = {Ice particle formation in tropospheric clouds significantly changes cloud radiative and microphysical properties. Ice nucleation in the troposphere via homogeneous freezing occurs at temperatures lower than −38°C and relative humidity with respect to ice above 140{\%}. In the absence of these conditions, ice formation can proceed via heterogeneous nucleation aided by aerosol particles known as ice nucleating particles (INPs). In this chapter, new developments in identifying the heterogeneous freezing mechanisms, atmospheric relevance, uncertainties, and unknowns about INPs are described. The change in conventional wisdom regarding the requirements of INPs as new studies discover physical and chemical properties of these particles is explained. INP sources and known reasons for their ice nucleating properties are presented. The need for more studies to systematically identify particle properties that facilitate ice nucleation is highlighted. The atmospheric relevance of long-range transport, aerosol aging, and coating studies (in the laboratory) of INPs are also presented. Possible mechanisms for processes that change the ice nucleating potential of INPs and the corresponding challenges in understanding and applying these in models are discussed. How primary ice nucleation affects total ice crystal number concentrations in clouds and the discrepancy between INP concentrations and ice crystal number concentrations are presented. Finally, limitations of parameterizing INPs and of models in representing known and unknown processes related to heterogeneous ice nucleation processes are discussed.},
author = {Kanji, Zamin A. and Ladino, Luis A. and Wex, Heike and Boose, Yvonne and Burkert-Kohn, Monika and Cziczo, Daniel J. and Kr{\"{a}}mer, Martina},
doi = {10.1175/amsmonographs-d-16-0006.1},
issn = {0065-9401},
journal = {Meteorological Monographs},
month = {jan},
pages = {1.1--1.33},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Overview of Ice Nucleating Particles}},
volume = {58},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kanner2013,
abstract = {Stable oxygen isotope ($\delta$18O) measurements of two speleothems, collected from Huagapo Cave in the central Peruvian Andes and with overlapping age from 1.1 to 1.4ka, characterize tropical South American climate variability over the last 7150 years. In the study region, precipitation $\delta$18O ($\delta$18Op) is inversely correlated to rainfall amount upstream in the Amazon Basin and the intensity of convection associated with the South American summer monsoon (SASM). Speleothem long-axis profiles yield an average age resolution of five years and permit investigation of climate over orbital to decadal timescales. Variations in the isotopic composition of Huagapo Cave calcite ($\delta$18Oc) are in good agreement with several precipitation proxy records from ice cores, speleothems, and lake sediments from the central Peruvian Andes. From the mid-Holocene to today, $\delta$18Oc, a proxy for $\delta$18Op, tracks changes in local insolation and exhibits a {\~{}}2‰ decrease. In the Late Holocene, Huagapo Cave $\delta$18Oc is characterized by two periods of significant decline in SASM intensity (up to 1.5‰ increase in $\delta$18Oc) even when insolation is reaching a local maximum and the SASM would be expected to intensify. These millennial-scale reductions in SASM intensity could in part be influenced by a reduction in the zonal SST gradient of the Pacific Ocean, favoring El Ni{\~{n}}o-like development. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier Ltd.},
author = {Kanner, Lisa C. and Burns, Stephen J. and Cheng, Hai and Edwards, R. Lawrence and Vuille, Mathias},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.008},
isbn = {0277-3791},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
keywords = {El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation,Oxygen isotopes,Peruvian Andes,South American summer monsoon,Speleothem},
pages = {1--10},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{High-resolution variability of the South American summer monsoon over the last seven millennia: Insights from a speleothem record from the central Peruvian Andes}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.008},
volume = {75},
year = {2013}
}
@article{kapnick2012causes,
author = {Kapnick, Sarah and Hall, Alex},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-011-1089-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {1885--1899},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Causes of recent changes in western North American snowpack}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-011-1089-y},
volume = {38},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Karim2016a,
abstract = {Surface water connectivity between waterbodies in a river-floodplain system is considered one of the key determinants of habitat quality, biodiversity and ecological integrity. This manuscript presents results from an investigation into the potential changes in floodplain inundation and connectivity between wetlands and rivers under projected future climates, in a large river catchment in Western Australia. The study was conducted using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21), and the modelling domain included the floodplain reaches encompassing the ecologically important wetlands. A lumped rainfall-runoff model (SIMHYD) was used to estimate local runoff and inflows from ungauged catchments. A SRTM derived 30-m elevation data was used to parameterize land topography and stream networks in the hydrodynamic model. Hydraulic roughness parameters were estimated using a land cover map, which was developed using a combination of aerial photography, topographic maps and Google Earth imagery. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated using stream gauge data and flood inundation maps derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer imagery. Model simulated stage heights were combined with land topography to identify floodplain pathways that connect wetlands with rivers. The connectivity of 30 off-stream wetlands was evaluated under present and future climates. The duration of connection of the individual wetlands to the main river channel varied from 1 to 40days depending on flood magnitude and duration. Topographic relief, location on the floodplain and magnitude and duration of the flood were found to be key factors governing the level of connectivity, and the relationship between return period of flood and inundated area was found to be non-linear. Modelling under a drier future climate indicated that the duration of connectivity of wetlands could be up to 20{\%} less than under the current climate, whilst under a wetter climate the connectivity could be 5{\%} longer. The results of this study provide potential use for future studies on movement and recruitment patterns of aquatic biota, wetland habitat characteristics and water quality and wetland biodiversity assessment.},
author = {Karim, Fazlul and Petheram, Cuan and Marvanek, Steve and Ticehurst, Catherine and Wallace, Jim and Hasan, Masud},
doi = {10.1002/hyp.10714},
issn = {08856087},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
keywords = {Aquatic biota,Flood inundation,Hydrodynamic modelling,MIKE 21,MODIS,Wetlands},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {1574--1593},
title = {{Impact of climate change on floodplain inundation and hydrological connectivity between wetlands and rivers in a tropical river catchment}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.10714},
volume = {30},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Karmakar_2017,
abstract = {The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) shows quasi-rhythmic intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) manifested as alternate ‘active' phases of copious rainfall and quiescent phases of ‘break'. Within these periodic phases, the daily rainfall shows large variability and exhibits spatiotemporally sporadic extreme rainfall events. The recent decades have witnessed a significant increase in the number of these extreme rainfall events, especially in the quiescent phases. This increase is accompanied by a decreasing trend in the mean monsoon rainfall and a weakening variance of its low-frequency ISO (LF-ISO) cycle. However, any physical link between this apparent paradox of increased extreme rainfall events and weakened slower-time-scale components is not yet reported. Here, using observations and numerical model simulations, we show that the occurrence of extreme rainfall events, primarily in the break phase of an LF-ISO cycle, reduce the intensity of the following active phase by stabilizing the atmosphere. We found that extreme events in a monsoon break leads to a reduction in the vertical shear of zonal winds and an increase in the static stability of the atmosphere in the following break-to-active transition and active phases. These conditions oppose the initiation and development of an active phase and lessen its intensity. This reduces the LF-ISO intensity and mean ISM rainfall.},
annote = {increase in extreme rainfall events in monsoon break cycle reduces subsequent active phase, reducing intraseasonal variability},
author = {Karmakar, Nirupam and Chakraborty, Arindam and Nanjundiah, Ravi S.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-07529-6},
isbn = {4159801707529},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {aug},
number = {1},
pages = {7824},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Increased sporadic extremes decrease the intraseasonal variability in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-07529-6},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kasoar2018,
abstract = {Anthropogenic aerosol forcing is spatially heterogeneous, mostly localised around industrialised regions like North America, Europe, East and South Asia. Emission reductions in each of these regions will force the climate in different locations, which could have diverse impacts on regional and global climate. Here, we show that removing sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions from any of these northern-hemisphere regions in a global composition-climate model results in significant warming across the hemisphere, regardless of the emission region. Although the temperature response to these regionally localised forcings varies considerably in magnitude depending on the emission region, it shows a preferred spatial pattern independent of the location of the forcing. Using empirical orthogonal function analysis, we show that the structure of the response is tied to existing modes of internal climate variability in the model. This has implications for assessing impacts of emission reduction policies, and our understanding of how climate responds to heterogeneous forcings.},
author = {Kasoar, Matthew and Shawki, Dilshad and Voulgarakis, Apostolos},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-018-0022-z},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
keywords = {Atmospheric science,Climate and Earth system modelling,Projection and prediction},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {12},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Similar spatial patterns of global climate response to aerosols from different regions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0022-z},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kay2015,
author = {Kay, J. E. and Deser, C. and Phillips, A. and Mai, A. and Hannay, C. and Strand, G. and Arblaster, J. M. and Bates, S. C. and Danabasoglu, G. and Edwards, J. and Holland, M. and Kushner, P. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Lawrence, D. and Lindsay, K. and Middleton, A. and Munoz, E. and Neale, R. and Oleson, K. and Polvani, L. and Vertenstein, M.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {1333--1349},
title = {{The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1},
volume = {96},
year = {2015}
}
@article{kelley2015climate,
abstract = {Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.},
author = {Kelley, Colin P and Mohtadi, Shahrzad and Cane, Mark A and Seager, Richard and Kushnir, Yochanan},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1421533112},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {11},
pages = {3241--3246},
publisher = {National Acad Sciences},
title = {{Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1421533112},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kendon2017,
author = {Kendon, Elizabeth J. and Ban, Nikolina and Roberts, Nigel M. and Fowler, Hayley J. and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Chan, Steven C. and Evans, Jason P. and Fosser, Giorgia and Wilkinson, Jonathan M.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-15-0004.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {79--93},
title = {{Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-0004.1},
volume = {98},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kendon2019NComms,
abstract = {African society is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The representation of convection in climate models has so far restricted our ability to accurately simulate African weather extremes, limiting climate change predictions. Here we show results from climate change experiments with a convection-permitting (4.5 km grid-spacing) model, for the first time over an Africa-wide domain (CP4A). The model realistically captures hourly rainfall characteristics, unlike coarser resolution models. CP4A shows greater future increases in extreme 3-hourly precipitation compared to a convection-parameterised 25 km model (R25). CP4A also shows future increases in dry spell length during the wet season over western and central Africa, weaker or not apparent in R25. These differences relate to the more realistic representation of convection in CP4A, and its response to increasing atmospheric moisture and stability. We conclude that, with the more accurate representation of convection, projected changes in both wet and dry extremes over Africa may be more severe.},
author = {Kendon, Elizabeth J. and Stratton, Rachel A. and Tucker, Simon and Marsham, John H. and Berthou, S{\'{e}}gol{\`{e}}ne and Rowell, David P. and Senior, Catherine A.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09776-9},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature communications},
month = {apr},
number = {1},
pages = {1794},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09776-9},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kent2015,
abstract = {Projected changes in regional seasonal precipitation due to climate change are highly uncertain, with model disagreement on even the sign of change in many regions. Using a 20-member CMIP5 ensemble under the RCP8.5 scenario, the intermodel uncertainty of the spatial patterns of projected end-of-twenty-first-century change in precipitation is found not to be strongly influenced by uncertainty in global mean temperature change. In the tropics, both the ensemble mean and intermodel uncertainty of regional precipitation change are found to be predominantly related to spatial shifts in convection and convergence, associated with pro- cesses such as sea surface temperature (SST) pattern change and land–sea thermal contrast change. The authors hypothesize that the zonal-mean seasonal migration of these shifts is driven by 1) the nonlinear spatial response of convection to SST changes and 2) a general movement of convection from land to ocean in response to SST increases. Assessment of tropical precipitation model projections over East Africa highlights the complexity of regional rainfall changes. Thermodynamically driven moisture increases determine the magnitude of the long rains (March–May) ensemble mean precipitation change in this region, whereas model uncertainty in spatial shifts of convection accounts for almost all of the intermodel uncertainty. Moderate correlations are found across models between the long rains precipitation change and patterns of SST change in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Further analysis of the capability of models to represent present-day SST– rainfall links, and any relationship with model projections, may contribute to constraining the uncertainty in projected East Africa long rains precipitation.},
author = {Kent, Chris and Chadwick, Robin and Rowell, David P.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00613.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {4390--4413},
title = {{Understanding Uncertainties in Future Projections of Seasonal Tropical Precipitation}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Keune2019,
abstract = {Water resources and water scarcity are usually regarded as local aspects for which a watershed-based management appears adequate. However, precipitation, as a main source of freshwater, may depend on moisture supplied through land evaporation from outside the watershed. This notion of evaporation as a local “green water” supply to precipitation is typically not considered in hydrological water assessments. Here we propose the concept of a watershed precipitation recycling network, which establishes atmospheric pathways and links land surface evaporation as a moisture supply to precipitation, hence contributing to local but also remote freshwater resources. Our results show that up to 74{\%} of summer precipitation over European watersheds depends on moisture supplied from other watersheds, which contradicts the conventional consideration of autarkic watersheds. The proposed network approach illustrates atmospheric pathways and enables the objective assessment of freshwater vulnerability and water scarcity risks under global change. The illustrated watershed interdependence emphasizes the need for global water governance to secure freshwater availability.},
author = {Keune, J. and Miralles, D. G.},
doi = {10.1029/2019WR025310},
issn = {19447973},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {freshwater vulnerability-atmosphere feedbacks,precipitation recycling,water resources,watersheds},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {9947--9961},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A Precipitation Recycling Network to Assess Freshwater Vulnerability: Challenging the Watershed Convention}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025310},
volume = {55},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kidston2015,
abstract = {A powerful influence on the weather that we experience on the ground can be exerted by the stratosphere. This highly stratified layer of Earth's atmosphere is found 10 to 50 kilometres above the surface and therefore above the weather systems that develop in the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. The troposphere is dynamically coupled to fluctuations in the speed of the circumpolar westerly jet that forms in the winter stratosphere: a strengthening circumpolar jet causes a poleward shift in the storm tracks and tropospheric jet stream, whereas a weakening jet causes a shift towards the equator. Following a weakening of the stratospheric jet, impacts on the surface weather include a higher likelihood of extremely low temperature over northern Europe and the eastern USA. Eddy feedbacks in the troposphere amplify the surface impacts, but the mechanisms underlying these dynamics are not fully understood. The same dynamical relationships act at very different timescales, ranging from daily variations to longer-term climate trends, suggesting a single unifying mechanism across timescales. Ultimately, an improved understanding of the dynamical links between the stratosphere and troposphere is expected to lead to improved confidence in both long-range weather forecasts and climate change projections.},
author = {Kidston, Joseph and Scaife, Adam A. and Hardiman, Steven C. and Mitchell, Daniel M. and Butchart, Neal and Baldwin, Mark P. and Gray, Lesley J.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2424},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {433--440},
title = {{Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2424},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kiem2020,
abstract = {Study region: South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Study focus: Decision makers in the water sector need to deal with uncertainty about the impacts of climate variability and change. Identifying solutions for hydroclimatic risk adaptation strategies that are both optimal and robust in the presence of this uncertainty presents a difficult challenge. The instrumental hydroclimatic record in Australia is short (∼60−120 years depending on location and variable), and fails to encompass enough climate variability to allow the calculation of robust statistics around the baseline risk of extreme events (i.e. multi-year droughts, decadal periods with clustering of major flood events). This paper (i) demonstrates how palaeoclimate data can be used to better understand what is possible with respect to drought frequency and duration in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia and (ii) investigates some implications from palaeoclimate data for drought planning, drought management and water security decision making. New hydrological insights for the region: The instrumental period is not representative of the full range of past climate variability. Droughts worse than those in the instrumental record are not only possible, but likely, and the probability of conditions drier than the worst on instrumental record is not zero. This means that current drought risk estimates are at best misleading and probably convey a false sense of security that is not justified given the insights now available from palaeoclimate data.},
author = {Kiem, Anthony S. and Vance, Tessa R. and Tozer, Carly R. and Roberts, Jason L. and {Dalla Pozza}, Ramona and Vitkovsky, John and Smolders, Kate and Curran, Mark A.J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100686},
issn = {22145818},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate variability,Drought,Hydroclimatic risk,Palaeoclimate},
month = {jun},
pages = {100686},
title = {{Learning from the past – Using palaeoclimate data to better understand and manage drought in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S221458182030080X},
volume = {29},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Kim2017a,
address = {Singapore},
author = {Kim, Daehyun and Maloney, Eric D.},
booktitle = {The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast (3rd Edition)},
doi = {10.1142/9789813200913_0009},
editor = {Chang, Chih-Pei and Kuo, Hung-Chi and Lau, Ngar-Cheung and Johnson, Richard H and Wang, Bin and Wheeler, Matthew C},
month = {mar},
pages = {119--130},
publisher = {World Scientific},
title = {{Simulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Using General Circulation Models}},
url = {http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/9789813200913{\_}0009},
year = {2017}
}
@article{King2019ERL,
abstract = {How the pattern of the Earth's surface warming will change under global warming represents a fundamental question for our understanding of the climate system with implications for regional projections. Despite the importance of this problem there have been few analyses of nonlinear local temperature change as a function of global warming. Individual climate models project nonlinearities, but drivers of nonlinear local change are poorly understood. Here, I present a framework for the identification and quantification of local nonlinearities using a time-slice analysis of a multi-model ensemble. Accelerated local warming is more likely over land than ocean per unit global warming. By examining changes across the model ensemble, I show that models that exhibit summertime drying over mid-latitude land regions, such as in central Europe, tend to also project locally accelerated warming relative to global warming, and vice versa. A case study illustrating some uses of this framework for nonlinearity identification and analysis is presented for north-eastern Australia. In this region, model nonlinear warming in summertime is strongly connected to changes in precipitation, incoming shortwave radiation, and evaporative fraction. In north-eastern Australia, model nonlinearity is also connected to projections for El Ni{\~{n}}o. Uncertainty in nonlinear local warming patterns contributes to the spread in regional climate projections, so attempts to constrain projections are explored. This study provides a framework for the identification of local temperature nonlinearities as a function of global warming and analysis of associated drivers under prescribed global warming levels.},
annote = {Land surface feedbacks involving cloud, precipitation and summer drying can lead to (non-linear) accelleration of regional climate change},
author = {King, Andrew David},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab1976},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {6},
pages = {64005},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{The drivers of nonlinear local temperature change under global warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2Fab1976},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{King2019,
abstract = {Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have been linked with anomalously cold temperatures at the surface in the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere as climatological westerly winds in the stratosphere tend to weaken and turn easterly. However, previous studies have largely relied on reanalyses and model simulations to infer the role of SSWs on surface climate and SSW relationships with extremes have not been fully analyzed. Here, we use observed daily gridded temperature and precipitation data over Europe to comprehensively examine the response of climate extremes to the occurrence of SSWs. We show that for much of Scandinavia, winters with SSWs are on average at least 1 °C cooler, but the coldest day and night of winter is on average at least 2 °C colder than in non-SSW winters. Anomalously high pressure over Scandinavia reduces precipitation on the northern Atlantic coast but increases overall rainfall and the number of wet days in southern Europe. In the 60 days after SSWs, cold extremes are more intense over Scandinavia with anomalously high pressure and drier conditions prevailing. Over southern Europe there is a tendency toward lower pressure, increased precipitation and more wet days. The surface response in cold temperature extremes over northwest Europe to the 2018 SSW was stronger than observed for any SSW during 1979–2016. Our analysis shows that SSWs have an effect not only on mean climate but also extremes over much of Europe. Only with carefully designed analyses are the relationships between SSWs and climate means and extremes detectable above synoptic-scale variability.},
author = {King, Andrew D. and Butler, Amy H. and Jucker, Martin and Earl, Nick O. and Rudeva, Irina},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD030480},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Cold extremes,Europe,Rainfall extremes,SSWs,Snowfall,Temperature extremes},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {13943--13961},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Observed Relationships Between Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and European Climate Extremes}},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{kingston2015precipitation,
abstract = {Analysis of large-scale climate conditions associated with extreme river flow is an important first step in the development of predictive relationships for such events. The potential of this approach is demonstrated here for the Waitaki River (a river of national importance in terms of electricity generation), in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. Here, atmospheric circulation anomalies and air parcel trajectories associated with such events are investigated for the period 1960-2010, using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and HYSPLIT trajectory model. Results show that atmospheric circulation variation and air parcel trajectories associated with extreme high Waitaki river flow events typically follow two distinct patterns. These patterns are associated with differences in both New Zealand- and hemispheric-scale atmospheric circulation, but all occur under a similar pattern of monthly average pressure anomalies. As such, the results indicate that different precipitation generation mechanisms are captured by a single monthly climate anomaly pattern - providing substantial new understanding of the cascade of processes linking atmospheric to surface hydrological variation in the Southern Alps, and pointing the direction for future process-informed research on sources of predictability for Waitaki river flow.},
author = {Kingston, D. G. and McMecking, J.},
doi = {10.5194/piahs-369-19-2015},
issn = {01447815},
journal = {Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences},
pages = {19--24},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Precipitation delivery trajectories associated with extreme river flow for the Waitaki River, New Zealand}},
volume = {369},
year = {2015}
}
@article{KITOH2017,
author = {Kitoh, Akio},
doi = {10.2151/jmsj.2017-002},
issn = {0026-1165},
journal = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Series II},
keywords = {asian climate change,climate simulation,gcm,precipitation},
number = {1},
pages = {7--33},
title = {{The Asian Monsoon and its Future Change in Climate Models: A Review}},
url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/95/1/95{\_}2017-002/{\_}article},
volume = {95},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kitoh2013,
abstract = {We provide a new view of global and regional monsoonal rainfall, and their changes in the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios as projected by 29 climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The model results show that the global monsoon area defined by the annual range in precipitation is projected to expand mainly over the central to eastern tropical Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean, and eastern Asia. The global monsoon precipitation intensity and the global monsoon total precipitation are also projected to increase. Indices of heavy precipitation are projected to increase much more than those for mean precipitation. Over the Asian monsoon domain, projected changes in extreme precipitation indices are larger than over other monsoon domains, indicating the strong sensitivity of Asian monsoon to global warming. Over the American and African monsoon regions, projected future changes in mean precipitation are rather modest, but those in precipitation extremes are large. Models project that monsoon retreat dates will delay, while onset dates will either advance or show no change, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season. However, models' limited ability to reproduce the present monsoon climate and the large scatter among the model projections limit the confidence in the results. The projected increase of the global monsoon precipitation can be attributed to an increase of moisture convergence due to increased surface evaporation and water vapor in the air column although offset to a certain extent by the weakening of the monsoon circulation.},
author = {Kitoh, Akio and Endo, Hirokazu and {Krishna Kumar}, K. and Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A. and Goswami, Prashant and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50258},
isbn = {2169-8996},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {3053--3065},
title = {{Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global context}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jgrd.50258 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50258},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Klein2020,
abstract = {Soil moisture can feed back on rainfall through the impact of surface fluxes on the environment in which convection develops. The vast majority of previous research has focused on the initiation of convection, but in many regions of the world, the majority of rain comes from remotely triggered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Here we conduct a systematic observational analysis of soil moisture feedbacks on propagating MCSs anywhere in the world and show a strong positive impact of drier soils on convection within mature MCSs. From thousands of storms captured in satellite imagery over the Sahel, we find that convective cores within MCSs are favored on the downstream side of dry patches ≥200 km across. The effect is particularly strong during the afternoon–evening transition when convection reaches its diurnal peak in intensity and frequency, with dry soils accounting for an additional one in five convective cores. Dry soil patterns intensify MCSs through a combination of convergence, increased instability, and wind shear, all factors that strengthen organized convection. These favorable conditions tend to occur in the vicinity of a surface-induced anomalous displacement of the Sahelian dry line/intertropical discontinuity, suggesting a strong link between dry line dynamics and soil moisture state. Our results have important implications for nowcasting of severe weather in the Sahel and potentially in other MCS hotspot regions of the world.},
author = {Klein, Cornelia and Taylor, Christopher M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2007998117},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Mesoscale convective systems | propagating convect},
month = {sep},
number = {35},
pages = {21132--21137},
pmid = {32817526},
title = {{Dry soils can intensify mesoscale convective systems}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/117/35/21132.abstract},
volume = {117},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Klingaman2020,
abstract = {Atmosphere‐ocean feedbacks often improve the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) in climate models, but these improvements are balanced by mean state biases that can degrade the MJO through changing the basic state on which the MJO operates. The Super‐Parameterized Community Atmospheric Model (SPCAM3) produces perhaps the best representation of the MJO among contemporary models, which improves further in a coupled configuration (SPCCSM3) despite considerable mean state biases in tropical sea surface temperatures and rainfall. We implement an atmosphere‐ocean‐mixed‐layer configuration of SPCAM3 (SPCAM3‐KPP) and use a flux‐correction technique to isolate the effects of coupling and mean state biases on the MJO. When constrained to the observed ocean mean state, air‐sea coupling does not substantially alter the MJO in SPCAM3, in contrast to previous studies. When constrained to the SPCCSM ocean mean state, SPCAM3‐KPP fails to produce an MJO, in stark contrast to the strong MJO in SPCCSM3. Further KPP simulations demonstrate that the MJO in SPCCSM3 arises from an overly strong sensitivity to El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation events. Our results show that simulated interannual variability and coupled‐model mean state biases affect the perceived response of the MJO to coupling. This is particularly concerning in the context of internal variability in coupled models, as many previous MJO sensitivity studies in coupled models used relatively short (20‐ to 50‐year) simulations that undersample interannual‐decadal variability. Diagnosing the effects of coupling on the MJO requires simulations that carefully control for mean state biases and interannual variability.},
author = {Klingaman, N. P. and Demott, C. A.},
doi = {10.1029/2019MS001799},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {e2019MS001799},
title = {{Mean State Biases and Interannual Variability Affect Perceived Sensitivities of the Madden–Julian Oscillation to Air‐Sea Coupling}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019MS001799},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Klutse2018a,
abstract = {We examine the impact of +1.5 °C and +2 °C global warming levels above pre-industrial levels on consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD), two key indicators for extreme precipitation and seasonal drought. This is done using climate projections from a multi-model ensemble of 25 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCMs take boundary conditions from ten global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. We define CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount less than 1 mm and CWD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount more than 1 mm. The differences in model representations of the change in CDD and CWD, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, and based on the control period 1971−2000 are reported. The models agree on a noticeable response to both 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming for each index. Enhanced warming results in a reduction in mean rainfall across the region. More than 80{\%} of ensemble members agree that CDD will increase over the Guinea Coast, in tandem with a projected decrease in CWD at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. These projected changes may influence already fragile ecosystems and agriculture in the region, both of which are strongly affected by mean rainfall and the length of wet and dry periods.},
author = {Klutse, Nana Ama Browne and Ajayi, Vincent O and Gbobaniyi, Emiola Olabode and Egbebiyi, Temitope S and Kouadio, Kouakou and Nkrumah, Francis and Quagraine, Kwesi Akumenyi and Olusegun, Christiana and Diasso, Ulrich and Abiodun, Babatunde J and Lawal, Kamoru and Nikulin, Grigory and Lennard, Christopher and Dosio, Alessandro},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab37b},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {055013},
title = {{Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab37b},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Knauer2015,
abstract = {Stomatal conductance (gs) is a key variable in Earth system models as it regulates the transfer of carbon and water between the terrestrial biosphere and the lower atmosphere. Various approaches have been developed that aim for a simple representation of stomatal regulation applicable at the global scale. These models differ, among others, in their response to atmospheric humidity, which induces stomatal closure in a dry atmosphere. In this study, we compared the widely used empirical Ball-Berry and Leuning stomatal conductance models to an alternative empirical approach, an optimization-based approach, and a semimechanistic hydraulic model. We evaluated these models using evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) observations derived from eddy covariance measurements at 56 sites across multiple biomes and climatic conditions. The different models were embedded in the land surface model JSBACH. Differences in performance across plant functional types or climatic conditions were small, partly owing to the large variations in the observational data. The models yielded comparable results at low to moderate atmospheric drought but diverged under dry atmospheric conditions, where models with a low sensitivity to air humidity tended to overestimate gs. The Ball-Berry model gave the best fit to the data for most biomes and climatic conditions, but all evaluated approaches have proven adequate for use in land surface models. Our findings further encourage future efforts toward a vegetation-type-specific parameterization of gs to improve the modeling of coupled terrestrial carbon and water dynamics.},
author = {Knauer, J{\"{u}}rgen and Werner, Christiane and Zaehle, S{\"{o}}nke},
doi = {10.1002/2015JG003114},
isbn = {2169-8961},
issn = {21698961},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences},
keywords = {Canopy conductance,FLUXNET,atmospheric drought,land surface modeling},
number = {10},
pages = {1894--1911},
pmid = {8175305},
title = {{Evaluating stomatal models and their atmospheric drought response in a land surface scheme: A multibiome analysis}},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Knauer2017,
abstract = {* Ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE) is an important metric linking the global land carbon and water cycles. Eddy covariance-based estimates of WUE in temperate/boreal forests have recently been found to show a strong and unexpected increase over the 1992–2010 period, which has been attributed to the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on plant physiology.$\backslash$n$\backslash$n$\backslash$n* To test this hypothesis, we forced the observed trend in the process-based land surface model JSBACH by increasing the sensitivity of stomatal conductance (gs) to atmospheric CO2 concentration. We compared the simulated continental discharge, evapotranspiration (ET), and the seasonal CO2 exchange with observations across the extratropical northern hemisphere.$\backslash$n$\backslash$n$\backslash$n* The increased simulated WUE led to substantial changes in surface hydrology at the continental scale, including a significant decrease in ET and a significant increase in continental runoff, both of which are inconsistent with large-scale observations. The simulated seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 decreased over time, in contrast to the observed upward trend across ground-based measurement sites.$\backslash$n$\backslash$n$\backslash$n* Our results provide strong indications that the recent, large-scale WUE trend is considerably smaller than that estimated for these forest ecosystems. They emphasize the decreasing CO2 sensitivity of WUE with increasing scale, which affects the physiological interpretation of changes in ecosystem WUE.},
author = {Knauer, J{\"{u}}rgen and Zaehle, S{\"{o}}nke and Reichstein, Markus and Medlyn, Belinda E. and Forkel, Matthias and Hagemann, Stefan and Werner, Christiane},
doi = {10.1111/nph.14288},
issn = {14698137},
journal = {New Phytologist},
keywords = {continental discharge,evapotranspiration,leaf to ecosystem scaling,rising atmospheric  concentration,seasonal  exchange,water-use efficiency ()},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {1654--1666},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{The response of ecosystem water-use efficiency to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations: sensitivity and large-scale biogeochemical implications}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.14288},
volume = {213},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Knutson2020,
abstract = {Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that are projected to impact multiple regions. A 2°C anthropogenic global warming is projected to impact TC activity as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection is that sea level rise accompanying the warming will lead to higher storm inundation levels, assuming all other factors are unchanged. 2) For TC precipitation rates, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase globally, with a median projected increase of 14{\%}, or close to the rate of tropical water vapor increase with warming, at constant relative humidity. 3) For TC intensity, 10 of 11 authors had at least medium-to-high confidence that the global average will increase. The median projected increase in lifetime maximum surface wind speeds is about 5{\%} (range: 1{\%}-10{\%}) in available higher-resolution studies. 4) For the global proportion (as opposed to frequency) of TCs that reach very intense (category 4-5) levels, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase, with a median projected change of +13{\%}. Author opinion was more mixed and confidence levels lower for the following projections: 5) a further poleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North Pacific; 6) a decrease of global TC frequency, as projected in most studies; 7) an increase in global very intense TC frequency (category 4-5), seen most prominently in higher-resolution models; and 8) a slowdown in TC translation speed.},
author = {Knutson, Thomas R. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Chan, Johnny C.L. and Emanuel, Kerry and Ho, Chang Hoi and Kossin, James and Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay and Satoh, Masaki and Sugi, Masato and Walsh, Kevin and Wu, Liguang},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {E303--E322},
title = {{Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1},
volume = {101},
year = {2020}
}
@article{kccehkmssww19,
abstract = {An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable in observations and whether any changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Overall, historical data suggest detectable TC activity changes in some regions associated with TC track changes, while data quality and quantity issues create greater challenges for analyses based on TC intensity and frequency. A number of specific published conclusions (case studies) about possible detectable anthropogenic influence on TCs were assessed using the conventional approach of preferentially avoiding type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection). We conclude there is at least low to medium confidence that the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific is detectable, or highly unusual compared to expected natural variability. Opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence, or whether any other observed changes represent detectable changes. The issue was then reframed by assessing evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence while seeking to reduce the chance of type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection). For this purpose, we used a much weaker “balance of evidence” criterion for assessment. This leads to a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection) but which may be useful for risk assessment. Several examples of these alternative statements, derived using this approach, are presented in the report.},
annote = {Detection and attribution. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in review},
author = {Knutson, Thomas R. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Chan, Johnny C.L. L and Emanuel, Kerry and Ho, Chang-Hoi and Kossin, James and Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay and Satoh, Masaki and Sugi, Masato and Walsh, Kevin and Wu, Liguang},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {1987--2007},
title = {{Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/10/bams-d-18-0189.1.xml},
volume = {100},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Knutson2018,
abstract = {Precipitation trends for 1901–2010, 1951–2010, and 1981–2010 over relatively well-observed global land regions are assessed for detectable anthropogenic influences and for consistency with historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The CMIP5 historical all-forcing runs are broadly consistent with the observed trend pattern (1901–2010), but with an apparent low trend bias tendency in the simulations. Despite this bias, observed and modeled trends are statistically consistent over 59{\%} of the analyzed area. Over 20{\%} (9{\%}) of the analyzed area, increased (decreased) precipitation is partly attributable to anthropogenic forcing. These inferred human-induced changes include increases over regions of the north-central United States, southern Canada, Europe, and southern South America and decreases over parts of the Mediterranean region and northern tropical Africa. Trends for the shorter periods (1951–2010 and 1981–2010) do not indicate a prominent low trend bias in the models, as found for the 1901–2010 trends. An atmosphere-only model, forced with observed sea surface temperatures and other climate forcing agents, also underpredicts the observed precipitation increase in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics since 1901. The CMIP5 all-forcing ensemble's low bias in simulated trends since 1901 is a tentative finding that, if borne out in further studies, suggests that precipitation projections using these regions and models could overestimate future drought risk and underestimate future flooding risk, assuming all other factors equal.},
author = {Knutson, Thomas R. and Zeng, Fanrong},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0672.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Anthropogenic effects,Atmosphere,Climate change,Climate models,Precipitation},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4617--4637},
title = {{Model Assessment of Observed Precipitation Trends over Land Regions: Detectable Human Influences and Possible Low Bias in Model Trends}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0672.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{kp15,
abstract = {This paper examines changes in the strength of the Walker circulation (WC) using the pressure difference between the western and eastern equatorial Pacific. Changes in observations and in 35 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) are determined. On the one hand, 78{\%} of the models show a weakening of the WC over the twentieth century, consistent with the observations and previous studies using CMIP phase 3 (CMIP3) models. However, the observations also exhibit a strengthening in the last three decades (i.e., from 1980 to 2012) that is statistically significant at the 95{\%} level. The models, on the other hand, show no consensus on the sign of change, and none of the models shows a statistically significant strengthening over the same period. While the reasons for the inconsistency between models and observations is not fully understood, it is shown that the ability of the models to generate trends as large as the observed from internal variability is reduced because most models have weaker than observed levels of both multidecadal variability and persistence of interannual variability in WC strength.},
author = {Kociuba, Greg and Power, Scott B},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00752.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {20--35},
title = {{Inability of CMIP5 Models to Simulate Recent Strengthening of the Walker Circulation: Implications for Projections}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00752.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kodama2019,
abstract = {Abstract Extratropical cyclones, major contributors to precipitation in the midlatitudes, comprise mesoscale fronts and fine-scale convective storms. Intense oceanic cyclones pose natural hazards, making reliable projections of their changes with global warming of great interest. Here, we analyze the first ever global climate simulations to resolve such mesoscale dynamics of extratropical cyclones. The present-day structure, frequency, and precipitation of the oceanic extratropical cyclones compare well with reanalyses and new satellite datasets that resolve the multiscale cloud-precipitation system. Simulated precipitation from intense oceanic cyclones increases at a rate of 7{\%}/K1, following Clausius-Clapeyron, with warming. The same scaling is apparent also in the interhemispheric contrast, suggesting that the latter could serve as a predictor of the former. Projected changes in precipitation from intense oceanic cyclones with warming may thus be testable using a reliable global observation network of precipitation in the present day.},
author = {Kodama, C. and Stevens, B. and Mauritsen, T. and Seiki, T. and Satoh, M.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084001},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,climate simulation,cloud-system resolving model,extratropical cyclone,satellite observation},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {12435--12444},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A New Perspective for Future Precipitation Change from Intense Extratropical Cyclones}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084001 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084001},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kohyama2017,
abstract = {The majority of the models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global warming experiments warm faster in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean than in the west. GFDL-ESM2M is an exception among the state-of-the-art global climate models in that the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the west warms faster than in the east, and the Walker circulation strengthens in response to warming. This study shows that this “La Ni{\~{n}}a–like” trend simulated by GFDL-ESM2M could be a physically consistent response to warming, and that the forced response could have been detectable since the late twentieth century. Two additional models are examined: GFDL-ESM2G, which differs from GFDL-ESM2M only in the oceanic components, warms without a clear zonal SST gradient; and HadGEM2-CC exhibits a warming pattern that resembles the multimodel mean. A fundamental observed constraint between the amplitude of El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mean-state zonal SST gradient is reproduced well by GFDL-ESM2M but not by the other two models, which display substantially weaker ENSO nonlinearity than is observed. Under this constraint, the weakening nonlinear ENSO amplitude in GFDL-ESM2M rectifies the mean state to be La Ni{\~{n}}a–like. GFDL-ESM2M exhibits more realistic equatorial thermal stratification than GFDL-ESM2G, which appears to be the most important difference for the ENSO nonlinearity. On longer time scales, the weaker polar amplification in GFDL-ESM2M may also explain the origin of the colder equatorial upwelling water, which could in turn weaken the ENSO amplitude.},
author = {Kohyama, Tsubasa and Hartmann, Dennis L. and Battisti, David S.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0441.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Climate change,Climate models,Climate variability,ENSO,Trends},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {4207--4225},
title = {{La Ni{\~{n}}a–like Mean-State Response to Global Warming and Potential Oceanic Roles}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0441.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kok2018a,
abstract = {Feedbacks between the global dust cycle and the climate system might have amplified past climate changes. Yet, it remains unclear what role the dust-climate feedback will play in future anthropogenic climate change. Here, we estimate the direct dust-climate feedback, arising from changes in the dust direct radiative effect (DRE), using a simple theoretical framework that combines constraints on the dust DRE with a series of climate model results. We find that the direct dust-climate feedback is likely in the range of -0.04 to +0.02 Wm -2 K-1, such that it could account for a substantial fraction of the total aerosol feedbacks in the climate system. On a regional scale, the direct dust-climate feedback is enhanced by approximately an order of magnitude close to major source regions. This suggests that it could play an important role in shaping the future climates of Northern Africa, the Sahel, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and Central Asia.},
author = {Kok, Jasper F. and Ward, Daniel S. and Mahowald, Natalie M. and Evan, Amato T.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-02620-y},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {241},
title = {{Global and regional importance of the direct dust–climate feedback}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02620-y},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{ksttskecsvmm19,
author = {Kolusu, Seshagiri Rao and Shamsudduha, Mohammad and Todd, Martin C and Taylor, Richard G and Seddon, David and Kashaigili, Japhet J and Ebrahim, Girma Y and Cuthbert, Mark O and Sorensen, James P R and Villholth, Karen G and MacDonald, Alan M and MacLeod, Dave A},
doi = {10.5194/hess-23-1751-2019},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1751--1762},
title = {{The El Ni{\~{n}}o event of 2015–2016: climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/1751/2019/},
volume = {23},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Konapala2020a,
abstract = {Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of “seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable”. Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.},
author = {Konapala, Goutam and Mishra, Ashok K. and Wada, Yoshihide and Mann, Michael E.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {3044},
pmid = {32576822},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16757-w},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Konapala2017,
abstract = {This study investigated the anthropogenic influence on the temporal variability of annual precipitation for the period 1950-2005 as simulated by the CMIP5 models. The temporal variability of both annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) and intensity (SDII) was first measured using a metric of statistical dispersion called the Gini coefficient. Comparing simulations driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcing (ALL) with simulations of natural forcing only (NAT), we quantified the anthropogenic contributions to the changes in temporal variability at global, continental and sub-continental scales as a relative difference of the respective Gini coefficients of ALL and NAT. Over the period of 1950-2005, our results indicate that anthropogenic forcing have resulted in decreased uniformity (i.e. increase in unevenness or disparity) in annual precipitation amount and intensity at global as well as continental scales. In addition, out of the 21 sub-continental regions considered, 14 (PRCPTOT) and 17 (SDII) regions showed significant anthropogenic influences. The human impacts are generally larger for SDII compared to PRCTOT, indicating that the temporal variability of precipitation intensity is generally more susceptible to anthropogenic influence than precipitation amount. The results highlight that anthropogenic activities have changed not only the trends but also the temporal variability of annual precipitation, which underscores the need to develop effective adaptation management practices to address the increased disparity.},
author = {Konapala, Goutam and Mishra, Ashok and Leung, L. Ruby},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa568a},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {anthropogenic influence,climate change variability},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {024009},
title = {{Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa568a},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Konikow2011,
abstract = {Removal of water from terrestrial subsurface storage is a natural consequence of groundwater withdrawals, but global depletion is not well characterized. Cumulative groundwater depletion represents a transfer of mass from land to the oceans that contributes to sea-level rise. Depletion is directly calculated using calibrated groundwater models, analytical approaches, or volumetric budget analyses for multiple aquifer systems. Estimated global groundwater depletion during 1900?2008 totals ?4,500 km3, equivalent to a sea-level rise of 12.6 mm ({\textgreater}6{\%} of the total). Furthermore, the rate of groundwater depletion has increased markedly since about 1950, with maximum rates occurring during the most recent period (2000?2008), when it averaged ?145 km3/yr (equivalent to 0.40 mm/yr of sea-level rise, or 13{\%} of the reported rate of 3.1 mm/yr during this recent period).},
author = {Konikow, Leonard F},
doi = {10.1029/2011GL048604},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {depletion,groundwater,sea-level rise},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {L17401},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Contribution of global groundwater depletion since 1900 to sea-level rise}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048604},
volume = {38},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Konikow2005,
author = {Konikow, Leonard F. and Kendy, Eloise},
doi = {10.1007/s10040-004-0411-8},
issn = {14312174},
journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
keywords = {Groundwater depletion,Groundwater development,Groundwater managment,Over-abstraction},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {317--320},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Groundwater depletion: A global problem}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10040-004-0411-8},
volume = {13},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Konwar2012,
abstract = {Aircraft measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and microphysics of clouds at various altitudes were conducted over India during CAIPEEX (Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment) phase I and II in 2009 and 2010 respectively. As expected, greater CCN concentrations gave rise to clouds with smaller drops with greater number concentrations (Nc). The cloud drop effective radius (re) increased with distance above cloud base (D). Warm rain became detectable, i.e., rain water content {\textgreater}0.01 g/Kg, at the tops of growing convective clouds when re exceeded 12 $\mu$m. The re is determined by the number of activated CCN, Nad, and D. The Nad can be approximated by the maximum measured values of Nc. Higher Nc resulted in greater D for reaching the re threshold for onset of warm rain, re*, denoted as D*. In extreme cases of highly polluted and moist air that formed the monsoon clouds over the Indo‐Gangetic plains, D* exceeded 6 km, well above the 0°C isotherm level. The precipitation particles were initiated there as supercooled raindrops at a temperature of −8°C. Giant CCN reduced re* and D*, by initiating raindrops closer to cloud base. This effect was found mainly in dusty air masses over the Arabian Sea. Besides, the aerosol effect on D*, D* was found to decrease with increase in cloud water path.},
author = {Konwar, Mahen and Maheskumar, R S and Kulkarni, J R and Freud, E and Goswami, B N and Rosenfeld, D},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {D13},
pages = {D13204},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Aerosol control on depth of warm rain in convective clouds}},
volume = {117},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Kooperman:2018aa,
abstract = {Understanding how anthropogenic CO2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO2 increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO2 than Asian or African forests.},
author = {Kooperman, Gabriel J. and Chen, Yang and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Koven, Charles D. and Lindsay, Keith and Pritchard, Michael S. and Swann, Abigail L.S. S and Randerson, James T.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {5},
pages = {434--440},
title = {{Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Koren2014,
abstract = {Among all cloud-aerosol interactions, the invigoration effect is the most elusive. Most of the studies that do suggest this effect link it to deep convective clouds with a warm base and cold top. Here, we provide evidence from observations and numerical modeling of a dramatic aerosol effect on warm clouds. We propose that convective-cloud invigoration by aerosols can be viewed as an extension of the concept of aerosol-limited clouds, where cloud development is limited by the availability of cloud-condensation nuclei. A transition from pristine to slightly polluted atmosphere yields estimated negative forcing of {\~{}}15 watts per square meter (cooling), suggesting that a substantial part of this anthropogenic forcing over the oceans occurred at the beginning of the industrial era, when the marine atmosphere experienced such transformation.},
author = {Koren, Ilan and Dagan, Guy and Altaratz, Orit},
doi = {10.1126/science.1252595},
journal = {Science},
number = {6188},
pages = {1143--1146},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{From aerosol-limited to invigoration of warm convective clouds}},
volume = {344},
year = {2014}
}
@article{kornhuber2017evidence,
abstract = {Several recent northern hemisphere summer extremes have been linked to persistent high-amplitude wave patterns (e.g. heat waves in Europe 2003, Russia 2010 and in the US 2011, Floods in Pakistan 2010 and Europe 2013). Recently quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) was proposed as a mechanism that, when certain dynamical conditions are fulfilled, can lead to such high-amplitude wave events. Based on these resonance conditions a detection scheme to scan reanalysis data for QRA events in boreal summer months was implemented. With this objective detection scheme we analyzed the occurrence and duration of QRA events and the associated atmospheric flow patterns in 1979–2015 reanalysis data. We detect a total number of 178 events for wave 6, 7 and 8 and find that during roughly one-third of all high amplitude events QRA conditions were met for respective waves. Our analysis reveals a significant shift for quasi-stationary waves 6 and 7 towards high amplitudes during QRA events, lagging first QRA-detection by typically one week. The results provide further evidence for the validity of the QRA hypothesis and its important role in generating high amplitude waves in boreal summer.},
author = {Kornhuber, K and Petoukhov, V and Petri, S and Rahmstorf, S and Coumou, D},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3399-6},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1961--1979},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Evidence for wave resonance as a key mechanism for generating high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves in boreal summer}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3399-6},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Korolev2020,
abstract = {This study attempts a new identification of mechanisms of secondary ice production (SIP) based on the observation of small faceted ice crystals (hexagonal plates or columns) with typical sizes smaller than 100 $\mu$ m. Due to their young age, such small ice crystals can be used as tracers for identifying the conditions for SIP. Observations reported here were conducted in oceanic tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and midlatitude frontal clouds in the temperature range from 0 to-15 °C and heavily seeded by aged ice particles. It was found that in both MCSs and frontal clouds, SIP was observed right above the melting layer and extended to higher altitudes with colder temperatures. The roles of six possible mechanisms to generate the SIP particles are assessed using additional observations. In most observed SIP cases, small secondary ice particles spatially correlated with liquid-phase, vertical updrafts and aged rimed ice particles. However, in many cases, neither graupel nor liquid drops were observed in the SIP regions, and therefore, the conditions for an active Hallett-Mossop process were not met. In many cases, large concentrations of small pristine ice particles were observed right above the melting layer, starting at temperatures as warm as-0:5 °C. It is proposed that the initiation of SIP above the melting layer is stimulated by the recirculation of large liquid drops through the melting layer with convective turbulent updrafts. After re-entering a supercooled environment above the melting layer, they impact with aged ice, freeze, and shatter. The size of the splinters generated during SIP was estimated as 10 $\mu$ m or less. A principal conclusion of this work is that only the freezingdrop-shattering mechanism could be clearly supported by the airborne in situ observations.},
author = {Korolev, Alexei and Heckman, Ivan and Wolde, Mengistu and Ackerman, Andrew S. and Fridlind, Ann M. and Ladino, Luis A. and {Paul Lawson}, R. and Milbrandt, Jason and Williams, Earle},
doi = {10.5194/acp-20-1391-2020},
issn = {16807324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1391--1429},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{A new look at the environmental conditions favorable to secondary ice production}},
volume = {20},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kossin_2018,
abstract = {As the Earth's atmosphere warms, the atmospheric circulation changes. These changes vary by region and time of year, but there is evidence that anthropogenic warming causes a general weakening of summertime tropical circulation1–8. Because tropical cyclones are carried along within their ambient environmental wind, there is a plausible a priori expectation that the translation speed of tropical cyclones has slowed with warming. In addition to circulation changes, anthropogenic warming causes increases in atmospheric water-vapour capacity, which are generally expected to increase precipitation rates 9 . Rain rates near the centres of tropical cyclones are also expected to increase with increasing global temperatures10–12. The amount of tropical-cyclone-related rainfall that any given local area will experience is proportional to the rain rates and inversely proportional to the translation speeds of tropical cyclones. Here I show that tropical-cyclone translation speed has decreased globally by 10 per cent over the period 1949–2016, which is very likely to have compounded, and possibly dominated, any increases in local rainfall totals that may have occurred as a result of increased tropical-cyclone rain rates. The magnitude of the slowdown varies substantially by region and by latitude, but is generally consistent with expected changes in atmospheric circulation forced by anthropogenic emissions. Of particular importance is the slowdown of 30 per cent and 20 per cent over land areas affected by western North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones, respectively, and the slowdown of 19 per cent over land areas in the Australian region. The unprecedented rainfall totals associated with the ‘stall' of Hurricane Harvey13–15 over Texas in 2017 provide a notable example of the relationship between regional rainfall amounts and tropical-cyclone translation speed. Any systematic past or future change in the translation speed of tropical cyclones, particularly over land, is therefore highly relevant when considering potential changes in local rainfall totals.},
annote = {slowing tropical circulation may be reducing tropical cyclone speed with implications for extreme rainfall accumulations
see also responses to criticism in https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1224-1 Kossin (2019) Nature{\textless}/a{\textgreater}},
author = {Kossin, James P.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0158-3},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Atmospheric science,Environmental health,Natural hazards},
month = {jun},
number = {7708},
pages = {104--107},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0158-3},
volume = {558},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kossin2014,
abstract = {Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity1,2,3. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment4,5. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period6. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure3, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions6.},
author = {Kossin, James P. and Emanuel, Kerry A. and Vecchi, Gabriel A.},
doi = {10.1038/nature13278},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {may},
number = {7500},
pages = {349--352},
title = {{The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature13278},
volume = {509},
year = {2014}
}
@article{kvlabt19,
author = {Kotchoni, D. O. Valerie and Vouillamoz, Jean-Michel and Lawson, Fabrice M A and Adjomayi, Philippe and Boukari, Moussa and Taylor, Richard G},
doi = {10.1007/s10040-018-1806-2},
issn = {1431-2174},
journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {447--457},
title = {{Relationships between rainfall and groundwater recharge in seasonally humid Benin: a comparative analysis of long-term hydrographs in sedimentary and crystalline aquifers}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10040-018-1806-2},
volume = {27},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kraaijenbrink2017,
abstract = {Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia (HMA) make a substantial contribution to the water supply of millions of people 1,2 , and they are retreating and losing mass as a result of anthropogenic climate change 3 at similar rates to those seen elsewhere 4,5 . In the Paris Agreement of 2015, 195 nations agreed on the aspiration to limit the level of global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not known what an increase of 1.5 °C would mean for the glaciers in HMA. Here we show that a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C will lead to a warming of 2.1 ± 0.1 °C in HMA, and that 64 ± 7 per cent of the present-day ice mass stored in the HMA glaciers will remain by the end of the century. The 1.5 °C goal is extremely ambitious and is projected by only a small number of climate models of the conservative IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 ensemble. Projections for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 reveal that much of the glacier ice is likely to disappear, with projected mass losses of 49 ± 7 per cent, 51 ± 6 per cent and 64 ± 5 per cent, respectively, by the end of the century; these projections have potentially serious consequences for regional water management and mountain communities. Temperatures are rising faster in high-altitude regions, including HMA, than in low-lying plains 6 . Possible explanations for this elevation-dependent warming in mountains include the effects of snow albedo and surface-based feedback, water vapour changes and latent heat release, radiative flux changes, surface heat loss and temperature change, and aerosols. A global ensemble of 110 general circulation model (GCM) runs spanning the full range of radiative forcing defined in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 7},
author = {Kraaijenbrink, P. D.A. and Bierkens, M. F.P. and Lutz, A. F. and Immerzeel, W. W.},
doi = {10.1038/nature23878},
isbn = {1476-4687},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7671},
pages = {257--260},
pmid = {28905897},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's glaciers}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature23878},
volume = {549},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kravtsov2017b,
author = {Kravtsov, Sergey},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074016},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5749--5757},
title = {{Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL074016},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Krishnan2016,
abstract = {Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2886-5},
author = {Krishnan, R. and Sabin, T. P. and Vellore, R. and Mujumdar, M. and Sanjay, J. and Goswami, B. N. and Hourdin, F. and Dufresne, J. L. and Terray, P.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2886-5},
isbn = {0930-7575},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {High-resolution model simulations,Recent trends in the South Asian Monsoon,Regional hydroclimatic response to climate change},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1007--1027},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2886-5},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Krishnan2013,
abstract = {Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultra-high resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating. {\textcopyright} 2012 Springer-Verlag.},
author = {Krishnan, R. and Sabin, T. P. and Ayantika, D. C. and Kitoh, A. and Sugi, M. and Murakami, H. and Turner, A. G. and Slingo, J. M. and Rajendran, K. and Krishnan et al. and Krishnan, R. and Sabin, T. P. and Ayantika, D. C. and Kitoh, A. and Sugi, M. and Murakami, H. and Turner, A. G. and Slingo, J. M. and Rajendran, K.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1317-0},
isbn = {0930-7575},
issn = {09307575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Global climate change,Orographic precipitation response,South Asian monsoon,Stability of monsoon circulation,Western Ghats},
number = {1-2},
pages = {187--211},
title = {{Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?}},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Krishnan2018,
author = {Krishnan, R. and Sabin, T. P. and Madhura, R. K. and Vellore, R. K. and Mujumdar, M. and Sanjay, J. and Nayak, S. and Rajeevan, M.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4357-2},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {4091--4109},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Non-monsoonal precipitation response over the Western Himalayas to climate change}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4357-2 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4357-2},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kristjansson2015,
author = {Kristj{\'{a}}nsson, J{\'{o}}n Egill and Muri, Helene and Schmidt, Hauke},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL066795},
isbn = {9783885796053},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {10.1002/2015GL066795 and climate engineering,cirrus clouds,hydrological cycle},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {10807--10815},
title = {{The hydrological cycle response to cirrus cloud thinning}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL066795},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Krueger2013,
abstract = {AbstractGlobal atmospheric reanalyses have become a common tool for both validation of climate models and diagnostic studies, such as assessing climate variability and long-term trends. Presently, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), which assimilates only surface pressure reports, sea ice, and sea surface temperature distributions, represents the longest global reanalysis dataset available covering the period from 1871 to the present. Currently the 20CR dataset is extensively used for the assessment of climate variability and trends. Here, the authors compare the variability and long-term trends in northeast Atlantic storminess derived from 20CR and from observations. A well-established storm index derived from pressure observations over a relatively densely monitored marine area is used. It is found that both variability and long-term trends derived from 20CR and from observations are inconsistent. In particular, both time series show opposing trends during the first half of the twentieth century: both storm indices share a similar behavior only for the more recent periods. While the variability and long-term trend derived from the observations are supported by a number of independent data and analyses, the behavior shown by 20CR is quite different, indicating substantial inhomogeneities in the reanalysis, most likely caused by the increasing number of observations assimilated into 20CR over time. The latter makes 20CR likely unsuitable for the identification of trends in storminess in the earlier part of the record, at least over the northeast Atlantic. The results imply and reconfirm previous findings that care is needed in general when global reanalyses are used to assess long-term changes.},
author = {Krueger, Oliver and Schenk, Frederik and Feser, Frauke and Weisse, Ralf},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00309.1},
isbn = {0894-8755$\backslash$r1520-0442},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Decadal variability,Extratropical cyclones,Reanalysis data,Surface observations,Trends},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {868--874},
title = {{Inconsistencies between long-term trends in storminess derived from the 20CR reanalysis and observations}},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Krueger2019,
abstract = {Geostrophic wind speeds calculated from mean sea level pressure readings are used to derive time series of northeast Atlantic storminess. The technique of geostrophic wind speed triangles provides relatively homogeneous long-term storm activity data and is thus suited for statistical analyses. This study makes use of historical air pressure data available from the International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) complemented with data from the Danish and Norwegian Meteorological Institutes. For the first time, the time series of northeast Atlantic storminess is extended until the most recent year available, that is, 2016. A multidecadal increasing trend in storm activity starting in the mid-1960s and lasting until the 1990s, whose high storminess levels are comparable to those found in the late nineteenth century, initiated debate over whether this would already be a sign of climate change. This study confirms that long-term storminess levels have returned to average values in recent years and that the multidecadal increase is part of an extended interdecadal oscillation. In addition, new storm activity uncertainty estimates were developed and novel insights into the connection with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are provided.},
author = {Krueger, Oliver and Feser, Frauke and Weisse, Ralf},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0505.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Climate records,Climate variability,In situ atmospheric observations,Pressure,Surface pressure},
number = {6},
pages = {1919--1931},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Northeast Atlantic storm activity and its uncertainty from the late nineteenth to the twenty-first century}},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Krysanova2018,
abstract = {Two approaches can be distinguished in studies of climate change impacts on water resources when accounting for issues related to impact model performance: (1) using a multi-model ensemble disregarding model performance, and (2) using models after their evaluation and considering model performance. We discuss the implications of both approaches in terms of credibility of simulated hydrological indicators for climate change adaptation. For that, we discuss and confirm the hypothesis that a good performance of hydrological models in the historical period increases confidence in projected impacts under climate change, and decreases uncer- tainty of projections related to hydrological models. Based on this, we find the second approach more trustworthy and recommend using it for impact assessment, especially if results are intended to support adaptation strategies. Guidelines for evaluation of global- and basin-scale models in the historical period, as well as criteria for model rejection from an ensemble as an outlier, are also suggested.},
author = {Krysanova, Valentina and Donnelly, Chantal and Gelfan, Alexander and Gerten, Dieter and Arheimer, Berit and Hattermann, Fred and Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.},
doi = {10.1080/02626667.2018.1446214},
issn = {0262-6667},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {696--720},
title = {{How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change}},
volume = {63},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Kulkarni2020,
address = {Singapore},
author = {Kulkarni, Ashwini and Sabin, T P and Chowdary, Jasti S and Rao, K Koteswara and Priya, P and Gandhi, Naveen and Bhaskar, Preethi and Buri, Vinodh K and Sabade, S S and Pai, D S and Ashok, K and Mitra, A K and Niyogi, Dev and Rajeevan, M},
booktitle = {Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region: A Report of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India},
doi = {10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2_3},
editor = {Krishnan, R and Sanjay, J and Gnanaseelan, Chellappan and Mujumdar, Milind and Kulkarni, Ashwini and Chakraborty, Supriyo},
isbn = {978-981-15-4327-2},
pages = {47--72},
publisher = {Springer Singapore},
title = {{Precipitation Changes in India}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2{\_}3},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kumar2016,
abstract = {This study investigates a physical basis for heterogeneity in hydrological changes, which suggests a greater detectability in wet than dry regions. Wet regions are those where atmospheric demand is less than precipitation (energy limited), and dry regions are those where atmospheric demand is greater than precipitation (water limited). Long-term streamflow trends in western North America and an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models at global scales show geographically heterogeneous detectability of hydrological changes. We apply the Budyko framework and state-of-the-art climate model data from CMIP5 to quantify the sensitivity and detectability of terrestrial hydrological changes. The Budyko framework quantifies the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff components. We find that the terrestrial hydrological sensitivity is 3 times greater in regions where the hydrological cycle is energy limited rather than water limited. This additional source (the terrestrial part) contributes to 30–40{\%} greater detectability in energy-limited regions. We also quantified the contribution of changes in the catchment efficiency parameter that oppose the effects of increasing evaporative demand in global warming scenarios. Incorporating changes to the catchment efficiency parameter in the Budyko framework reduces dry biases in global runoff change projections by 88{\%} in the 21st century.},
annote = {terrestrial hydrological sensitivity is 3 times greater in regions where the hydrological cycle is energy limited rather than water limited},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {10.1002/2014WR016527},
author = {Kumar, Sanjiv and Zwiers, Francis and Dirmeyer, Paul A. and Lawrence, David M. and Shrestha, Rajesh and Werner, Arelia T.},
doi = {10.1002/2016WR018607},
eprint = {2014WR016527},
isbn = {6176273099},
issn = {19447973},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {Budyko framework,global warming,hydrological change surface,potential evapotranspiration},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {3127--3142},
pmid = {1000287943},
primaryClass = {10.1002},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Terrestrial contribution to the heterogeneity in hydrological changes under global warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016wr018607},
volume = {52},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Kumar2018,
abstract = {Characterization of climate uncertainty at regional scales over near-term planning horizons (0–30 years) is crucial for climate adaptation. Climate inter- nal variability (CIV) dominates climate uncertainty over decadal prediction horizons at stakeholders' scales (regional to local). In the literature, CIV has been characterized indi- rectly using projections of climate change from multi-model ensembles (MME) instead of directly using projections from multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE), primar- ily because adequate number of initial condition (IC) runs were not available for any climate model. Nevertheless, the recent availability of significant number of IC runs from one climate model allows for the first time to characterize CIV directly from climate model projections and perform a sen- sitivity analysis to study the dominance of CIV compared to model response variability (MRV). Here, we measure rela- tive agreement (a dimensionless number with values ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive; a high value indicates less vari- ability and vice versa) among MME and MICE and find that CIV is lower than MRV for all projection time horizons and spatial resolutions for precipitation and temperature. How- ever, CIV exhibits greater dominance over MRV for seasonal and annual mean precipitation at higher latitudes where signals of climate change are expected to emerge sooner. Furthermore, precipitation exhibits large uncertainties and a rapid decline in relative agreement from global to continen- tal, regional, or local scales for MICE compared to MME. The fractional contribution of uncertainty due to CIV is invariant for precipitation and decreases for temperature as lead time progresses towards the end of the century.},
author = {Kumar, Devashish and Ganguly, Auroop R.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3914-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {207--219},
title = {{Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3914-4},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kumar2015,
abstract = {A theoretically expected consequence of the intensification of the hydrological cycle under global warming is that on average, wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier (WWDD). Recent studies, however, have found significant discrepancies between the expected pattern of change and observed changes over land. We assess the WWDD theory in four climate models. We find that the reported discrepancy can be traced to two main issues: (1) unforced internal climate variability strongly affects local wetness and dryness trends and can obscure underlying agreement with WWDD, and (2) dry land regions are not constrained to become drier by enhanced moisture divergence since evaporation cannot exceed precipitation over multiannual time scales. Over land, where the available water does not limit evaporation, a ``wet gets wetter'' signal predominates. On seasonal time scales, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, trends in wet season becoming wetter and dry season becoming drier are also found.},
author = {Kumar, Sanjiv and Allan, Richard P. and Zwiers, Francis and Lawrence, David M. and Dirmeyer, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL066858},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {dryness index,global warming,hydroclimatology,intensification of hydrological cycle,internal variability,wetness and dryness trends over land},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {10867--10875},
title = {{Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015GL066858},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kumar2013,
abstract = {The authors have analyzed twentieth-century temperature and precipitation trends and long-term persistence from 19 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study is focused on continental areas (60°S–60°N) during 1930–2004 to ensure higher reliability in the observations. A nonparametric trend detection method is employed, and long-term persistence is quantified using the Hurst coefficient, taken from the hydrology literature. The authors found that the multimodel ensemble–mean global land–average temperature trend (0.07°C decade−1) captures the corresponding observed trend well (0.08°C decade−1). Globally, precipitation trends are distributed (spatially) at about zero in both the models and in the observations. There are large uncertainties in the simulation of regional-/local-scale temperature and precipitation trends. The models' relative performances are different for temperature and precipitation trends. The models capture the long-term persistence in temperature reasonably well. The areal coverage of observed long-term persistence in precipitation is 60{\%} less (32{\%} of land area) than that of temperature (78{\%}). The models have limited capability to capture the long-term persistence in precipitation. Most climate models underestimate the spatial variability in temperature trends. The multimodel ensemble–average trend generally provides a conservative estimate of local/regional trends. The results of this study are generally not biased by the choice of observation datasets used, including Climatic Research Unit Time Series 3.1; temperature data from Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit, version 4; and precipitation data from Global Historical Climatology Network, version 2.},
author = {Kumar, Sanjiv and Merwade, Venkatesh and Kinter, James L. and Niyogi, Dev},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00259.1},
isbn = {3034971389},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate models,Regional effects,Time series,Trends},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4168--4185},
title = {{Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Trends and Long-Term Persistence in CMIP5 Twentieth-Century Climate Simulations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00259.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Kumar2019JClim,
abstract = {AbstractSoil moisture anomalies within the root zone (roughly, soil depths down to ∼0.4m) typically persist only a few months. Consequently, land-surface related climate predictability research has often focused on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. However, in this study of multi-decadal in situ datasets and land data assimilation products, we find that root zone soil moisture anomalies can recur several or more seasons after they were initiated, indicating potential interannual predictability. Lead-lag correlations show that this recurrence often happens during one fixed season and also seems related to the greater memory of soil moisture anomalies within the layer beneath the root zone, with memory on the order of several months to over a year. That is, in some seasons, notably spring and summer when the vertical soil water potential gradient reverses sign throughout much of North America, deeper soil moisture anomalies appear to return to the surface, thereby restoring an earlier root zone anomaly ...},
author = {Kumar, Sanjiv and Newman, Matthew and Wang, Yan and Livneh, Ben},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-18-0540.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {2707--2734},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Potential reemergence of seasonal soil moisture anomalies in North America}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0540.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{kekgss12,
author = {Kunkel, K E and Easterling, D R and Kristovich, D A and Gleason, B and Stoecker, L and Smith, R},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-11-0108.1},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
pages = {1131--1141},
title = {{Meteorological causes of the secular variations in observed extreme precipitation events for the conterminous United States}},
volume = {13},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Kunkel2016,
abstract = {Recent studies of snow climatology show a mix of trends but a preponderance of evidence suggest an overall tendency toward decreases in several metrics of snow extremes. The analysis performed herein on maximum seasonal snow depth points to a robust negative trend in this variable for the period of winter 1960/1961--winter 2014/2015. This conclusion is applicable to North America. Maximum snow depth is also mostly decreasing for those European stations analyzed. Research studies show generally negative trends in snow cover extent and snow water equivalent across both North America and Eurasia. These results are mostly, but not fully, consistent with simple hypotheses for the effects of global warming on snow characteristics.},
author = {Kunkel, Kenneth E. and Robinson, David A. and Champion, Sarah and Yin, Xungang and Estilow, Thomas and Frankson, Rebekah M.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-016-0036-8},
issn = {21986061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Extremes,Snow,Snow cover,Snowdepth,Snowfall},
number = {2},
pages = {65--73},
publisher = {Current Climate Change Reports},
title = {{Trends and Extremes in Northern Hemisphere Snow Characteristics}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0036-8},
volume = {2},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Kunkel2010,
author = {Kunkel, Kenneth E and Easterling, David R and Kristovich, David A.R. and Gleason, Byron and Stoecker, Leslie and Smith, Rebecca},
doi = {10.1029/2010GL045164},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {L24706},
title = {{Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2010GL045164},
volume = {37},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Kushnir2017,
author = {Kushnir, Yochanan and Cassou, Christophe and {St George}, Scott},
doi = {10.22498/pages.25.1.1},
issn = {2411605X},
journal = {Past Global Changes Magazine},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {1},
title = {{Editorial: Decadal Climate Variability}},
url = {http://www.pastglobalchanges.org/products/pages-magazine/10516},
volume = {25},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kuss2014,
author = {Kuss, Amber Jean M. and Gurdak, Jason J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.069},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {nov},
pages = {1939--1952},
title = {{Groundwater level response in U.S. principal aquifers to ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169414007616},
volume = {519},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Kusunoki2018,
abstract = {The reproducibility of precipitation over East Asia (110{\{}$\backslash$textendash{\}}150{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}E, 20{\{}$\backslash$textendash{\}}50{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}N) by the Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 3.2 (MRI-AGCM3.2) was investigated and c},
author = {Kusunoki, Shoji},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3335-9},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Cumulus convection scheme,East Asia,Global atmospheric model,High horizontal Precipitation,The West Pacific Subtropical High},
number = {11-12},
pages = {4489--4510},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Is the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2 better than the CMIP5 atmospheric models in simulating precipitation over East Asia?}},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kusunoki2020,
abstract = {The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the ‘tipping year' Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).},
author = {Kusunoki, Shoji and Ose, Tomoaki and Hosaka, Masahiro},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61792-8},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {4802},
title = {{Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-61792-8},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kutzbach:1981,
author = {Kutzbach, John E},
journal = {Science},
number = {4516},
pages = {59--61},
title = {{Monsoon climate of the early Holocene: climate experiment with the Earth's orbital parameters for 9000 years ago}},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1687258},
volume = {214},
year = {1981}
}
@article{LHeureux2013NClim,
abstract = {The Pacific Walker circulation is a large overturning cell that spans the tropical Pacific Ocean, characterized by rising motion (lower sea-level pressure) over Indonesia and sinking motion (higher sea level-pressure) over the eastern Pacific1,2. Fluctuations in the Walker circulation reflect changes in the location and strength of tropical heating, so related circulation anomalies have global impacts3,4. On interannual timescales, the El Ni{\~{n}}o/Southern Oscillation accounts for much of the variability in the Walker circulation, but there is considerable interest in longer-term trends and their drivers, including anthropogenic climate change5–12. Here, we examine sea-level pressure trends in ten different data sets drawn from reanalysis, reconstructions and in situ measurements for 1900–2011. We show that periods with fewer in situ measurements result in lower signal-to-noise ratios, making assessments of sea-level pressure trends largely unsuitable before about the 1950s. Multidecadal trends evaluated since 1950 reveal statistically significant, negative values over the Indonesian region, with weaker, positive trends over the eastern Pacific. The overall trend towards a stronger, La Ni{\~{n}}alike Walker circulation is nearly concurrent with the observed increase in global average temperatures, thereby justifying closer scrutiny of how the Pacific climate system has changed in the historical record},
author = {L'Heureux, Michelle L. and Lee, Sukyoung and Lyon, Bradfield and L'Heureux, Michelle L. and Lee, Sukyoung and Lyon, Bradfield},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1840},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {571--576},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1840 https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fnclimate1840},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Laine2014,
abstract = {It has been pointed out that climatological- mean precipitation-evaporation difference (P–E) should increase under global warming mainly through the increasing saturation level of moisture. This study focuses on evaporation changes under global warming and their dependency on the direct warming effect, on the basis of future projections from the Coupled Model Intercompari- son Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Over most of the tropical, subtropical and midlatitude regions, the direct contribution from surface temperature increase is found to dominate the projected increase in evaporation. This contribution is nevertheless offset partially, especially over the oceans, by contributions from weakening surface winds and increasing near-surface relative humidity. Greater warming of surface air than of the sea surface also acts to reduce surface evaporation, by reducing both the exchange coefficient and humidity contrast at the surface. Though generally of secondary importance, this contribution is the dominant factor over the subpolar oceans. Over the polar oceans, the effect of sea-ice retreat dominantly contributes to the evaporation increase in winter, whereas the reduced exchange coefficient and surface humidity contrast coupled with the sea-ice retreat account for most of the response during summertime. Over the continents, changes in the surface exchange coefficient, reflecting changes in soil moisture and vegetation among other factors, are importan to modulate the direct effects of the warming and the generally reduced surface air relative humidity},
author = {La{\^{i}}n{\'{e}}, A. and Nakamura, H. and Nishii, K. and Miyasaka, T.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2087-7},
isbn = {0038201420877},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CMIP5,Climate change,Climate ing,Evaporation,Hydrological cycle,RCP45},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2745--2761},
title = {{A diagnostic study of future evaporation changes projected in CMIP5 climate models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2087-7},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Lachniet2013,
abstract = {The dominant controls on global paleomonsoon strength include summer insolation driven by precession cycles, ocean circulation through its influence on atmospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperatures. However, few records from the summer North American Monsoon system are available to test for a synchronous response with other global monsoons to shared forcings. In particular, the monsoon response to widespread atmospheric reorganizations associated with disruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the deglacial period remains unconstrained. Here, we present a high-resolution and radiometrically dated monsoon rainfall reconstruction over the past 22,000 y from speleothems of tropical southwestern Mexico. The data document an active Last Glacial Maximum (18-24 cal ka B.P.) monsoon with similar $\delta$(18)O values to the modern, and that the monsoon collapsed during periods of weakened AMOC during Heinrich stadial 1 (ca. 17 ka) and the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.5 ka). The Holocene was marked by a trend to a weaker monsoon that was paced by orbital insolation. We conclude that the Mesoamerican monsoon responded in concert with other global monsoon regions, and that monsoon strength was driven by variations in the strength and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which was forced by AMOC variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. The surprising observation of an active Last Glacial Maximum monsoon is attributed to an active but shallow AMOC and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The emergence of agriculture in southwestern Mexico was likely only possible after monsoon strengthening in the Early Holocene at ca. 11 ka.},
author = {Lachniet, Matthew S. and Asmerom, Yemane and Bernal, Juan Pablo and Polyak, Victor J. and Vazquez-Selem, Lorenzo},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222804110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {jun},
number = {23},
pages = {9255--9260},
title = {{Orbital pacing and ocean circulation-induced collapses of the Mesoamerican monsoon over the past 22,000 y}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222804110},
volume = {110},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Lafore2017,
author = {Lafore, Jean-Philippe and Beucher, Florent and Peyrill{\'{e}}, Philippe and Diongue-Niang, A{\"{i}}da and Chapelon, Nicolas and Bouniol, Dominique and Caniaux, Guy and Favot, Florence and Ferry, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Poan, Emmanuel and Roehrig, Romain and Vischel, Th{\'{e}}o},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3165},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {African easterly waves,West Africa,convection,high‐impact weather system},
month = {oct},
number = {709},
pages = {3094--3109},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A multi-scale analysis of the extreme rain event of Ouagadougou in 2009}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.3165},
volume = {143},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lambert2017,
abstract = {AbstractA compositing scheme that predicts changes in tropical precipitation under climate change from changes in near-surface relative humidity (RH) and temperature is presented. As shown by earlier work, regions of high tropical precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) are associated with high near-surface RH and temperature. Under climate change, it is found that high precipitation continues to be associated with the highest surface RH and temperatures in most CMIP5 GCMs, meaning that it is the “rank” of a given GCM grid box with respect to others that determines how much precipitation falls rather than the absolute value of surface temperature or RH change, consistent with the weak temperature gradient approximation. Further, it is demonstrated that the majority of CMIP5 GCMs are close to a threshold near which reductions in land RH produce large reductions in the RH ranking of some land regions, causing reductions in precipitation over land, particularly South America, and compensating incr...},
annote = {Land-Ocean Shifts in Tropical Precipitation Linked to Surface Temperature and Humidity Change},
author = {Lambert, F. Hugo and Ferraro, Angus J. and Chadwick, Robin},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0649.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Classification,Climate change,General circulation models,Hydrologic cycle,Precipitation,Tropics},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4527--4545},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Land–ocean shifts in tropical precipitation linked to surface temperature and humidity change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0649.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lambert:2013aa,
abstract = {We examine the global mean surface temperature and carbon cycle responses to the A1B emissions scenario for a new 57 member perturbed-parameter ensemble of simulations generated using the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-carbon cycle climate model HadCM3C. The model variants feature simultaneous perturbation to parameters that control atmosphere, ocean, land carbon cycle and sulphur cycle processes in this Earth system model, and is the first experiment of its kind. The experimental design, based on four earlier ensembles with parameters varied within each individual Earth system component, allows the effects of interactions between uncertainties in the different components to be explored. A large spread in response is obtained, with atmospheric CO2 at the end of the twenty-first century ranging from 615 to 1,100 ppm. On average though, the mean effect of the parameter perturbations is to significantly reduce the amount of atmospheric CO2 compared to that seen in the standard HadCM3C model. Global temperature change for 2090--2099 relative to the pre-industrial period ranges from 2.2 to 7.5 {\$}\backslash,{\^{}}{\{}\backslashcirc{\}}{\$}C, with large temperature responses occurring when atmospheric model versions with high climate sensitivities are combined with carbon cycle components that emit large amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere under warming. A simple climate model, tuned to reproduce the responses of the separate Earth system component ensembles, is used to demonstrate that interactions between uncertainties in the different components play a significant role in determining the spread of responses in global mean surface temperature. This ensemble explores a wide range of interactions and response, and therefore provides a useful resource for the provision of regional climate projections and associated uncertainties.},
author = {Lambert, F Hugo and Harris, Glen R and Collins, Matthew and Murphy, James M and Sexton, David M H and Booth, Ben B B},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1618-3},
isbn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {11},
pages = {3055--3072},
title = {{Interactions between perturbations to different Earth system components simulated by a fully-coupled climate model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1618-3},
volume = {41},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Lamontagne_Hall__2018,
abstract = {Permafrost thaw due to climate warming modifies hydrological processes by increasing hydrological connectivity between aquifers and surface water bodies and increasing groundwater storage. While previous studies have documented arctic river baseflow increases and changing wetland and lake distributions, the hydrogeological processes leading to these changes remain poorly understood. This study uses a coupled heat and groundwater flow numerical model with dynamic freezing and thawing processes and an improved set of boundary conditions to simulate the impacts of climate warming on permafrost distribution and groundwater discharge to surface water bodies. We show a spatial shift in groundwater discharge from upslope to downslope and a temporal shift with increasing groundwater discharge during the winter season due to the formation of a lateral supra-permafrost talik underlying the active layer. These insights into changing patterns of groundwater discharge help explain observed changes in arctic baseflow and wetland patterns and are important for northern water resources and ecosystem management.},
author = {Lamontagne-Hall{\'{e}}, Pierrick and McKenzie, Jeffrey M and Kurylyk, Barret L and Zipper, Samuel C},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aad404},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {84017},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Changing groundwater discharge dynamics in permafrost regions}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2Faad404},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lan2019,
abstract = {As the global atmosphere warms, water vapor concentrations increase with rising temperatures at a rate of 7{\%}/K. Precipitation change is associated with increased moisture convergence, which can be decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. Our previous studies involving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections have suggested that seasonal disparity in changes of global precipitation is primarily associated with the thermodynamic contribution. In this study, a vertically integrated atmospheric water budget analysis using multiple reanalysis datasets demonstrated that dynamic changes played a significant role in seasonal precipitation changes during 1979–2008, especially in the global average and ocean average. The thermodynamic component exhibited almost consistent magnitude in the contribution of seasonal precipitation changes during 1979–2008 in both CMIP5{\_}AMIP models and reanalysis datasets, whereas the dynamic component (related to the tendency of $\omega$ and water vapor climatology) made a lower or negative contribution in the CMIP5{\_}AMIP models compared with the reanalysis datasets. Strengthened (weakened) ascending and descending motions in the reanalysis datasets (CMIP5{\_}AMIP models), which were indicative of strengthened (weakened) seasonal mean circulation, tended to increase (reduce) precipitation in the wet season and reduce (increase) precipitation in the dry season during the study period. Vertical profiles of the tendency of moist static energy in the mid-to-upper troposphere suggested a trend toward stability in the CMIP5{\_}AMIP models and one toward instability in the reanalysis datasets. Such disagreement in stability might be related to the different warming tendency in the mid-to-upper troposphere over the tropics.},
author = {Lan, Chia-Wei and Lo, Min-Hui and Chen, Chao-An and Yu, Jia-Yuh},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04781-6},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {oct},
number = {7-8},
pages = {4173--4187},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{The mechanisms behind changes in the seasonality of global precipitation found in reanalysis products and CMIP5 simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04781-6 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-04781-6},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lanzante2019,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Nature, Published online: 05 June 2019; {\textless}a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1223-2"{\textgreater}doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1223-2{\textless}/a{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}Uncertainties in tropical-cyclone translation speed},
author = {Lanzante, John R.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1223-2},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7759},
pages = {E6--E15},
title = {{Uncertainties in tropical-cyclone translation speed}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1223-2},
volume = {570},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lau2017,
author = {Lau, William Ka-Ming and Kim, Kyu-Myong},
doi = {10.1007/s13143-017-0033-4},
issn = {1976-7633},
journal = {Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {181--194},
publisher = {Korean Meteorological Society},
title = {{Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13143-017-0033-4},
volume = {53},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lau2006,
abstract = {Preliminary observational evidences are presented showing that the Indian subcontinent and surrounding regions are subject to heavy loading of absorbing aerosols, i.e., dust and black carbon, which possess spatial and temporal variability that are closely linked to those of the Asian monsoon water cycle. Consistent with the Elevated Heat Pump hypothesis, we find that increased loading of absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic Plain in the pre-monsoon season is associated with a) increased heating of the upper troposphere, with the formation of a warm-core upper level anticyclone over the Tibetan Plateau in April?May, b) an advance of the monsoon rainy season in northern India in May, and c) subsequent increased rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, and decreased rainfall over East Asia in June?July.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2006GL027546},
author = {Lau, W. K.-M. and Kim, K.-M.},
doi = {10.1029/2006GL027546},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {aerosol,circulation,monsoon},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {L21810},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Observational relationships between aerosol and Asian monsoon rainfall, and circulation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027546},
volume = {33},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Lau2015a,
abstract = {In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness (suppressed rainfall and reduced tropospheric relative humidity) under CO 2 warming from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model projections. We find a strengthening of the HC manifested in a “deep-tropics squeeze” (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, enhanced ascent, increased high clouds, suppressed low clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200−100 hPa) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence and reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among various water-cycle parameters examined, global dryness is found to have the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide a physical basis for inferring that greenhouse warming is likely to contribute to the observed prolonged droughts worldwide in recent decades.},
author = {Lau, William K.-M. and Kim, Kyu-Myong},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1418682112},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {12},
pages = {3630--3635},
title = {{Robust Hadley Circulation changes and increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1418682112},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lau2020,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Lau, William K.-M. and Tao, Weichen},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0068.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {20},
pages = {8737--8749},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Precipitation–Radiation–Circulation Feedback Processes Associated with Structural Changes of the ITCZ in a Warming Climate during 1980–2014: An Observational Portrayal}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/20/jcliD200068.xml},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lavado2013,
abstract = {The hydroclimatology of the Peruvian Amazon-Andes basin (PAB) which surface corresponding to 7{\{}{\%}{\}} of the Amazon basin is still poorly documented. We propose here an extended and original analysis of the temporal evolution of monthly rainfall, mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) time series over two PABs (Huallaga and Ucayali) over the last 40years. This analysis is based on a new and more complete database that includes 77 weather stations over the 1965-2007 period, and we focus our attention on both annual and seasonal meteorological time series. A positive significant trend in mean temperature of 0.09°C per decade is detected over the region with similar values in the Andes and rainforest when considering average data. However, a high percentage of stations with significant Tmean positive trends are located over the Andes region. Finally, changes in the mean values occurred earlier in Tmax (during the 1970s) than in Tmin (during the 1980s). In the PAB, there is neither trend nor mean change in rainfall during the 1965-2007 period. However, annual, summer and autumn rainfall in the southern Andes presents an important interannual variability that is associated with the sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean while there are limited relationships between rainfall and El Ni{\{}{\~{n}}{\}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. {\textcopyright} 2012 John Wiley {\{}{\&}{\}} Sons, Ltd.},
author = {Lavado, Waldo Sven and Labat, David and Ronchail, Josyane and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Guyot, Jean Loup},
doi = {10.1002/hyp.9418},
isbn = {0885-6087},
issn = {08856087},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
keywords = {Amazon basin,Atlantic SST,Climate change,ENSO,Hydroclimatology,Peru,Rainfall and temperature trend},
number = {20},
pages = {2944--2957},
title = {{Trends in rainfall and temperature in the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin over the last 40 years (1965–2007)}},
volume = {27},
year = {2013}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2015GL064672,
abstract = {Abstract Global warming of the Earth's atmosphere is hypothesized to lead to an intensification of the global water cycle. To determine associated hydrological changes, most previous research has used precipitation. This study, however, investigates projected changes to global atmospheric water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)), the key link between water source and sink regions. Using 22 global circulation models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, we evaluate, globally, the mean, standard deviation, and the 95th percentiles of IVT from the historical simulations (1979–2005) and two emissions scenarios (2073–2099). Considering the more extreme emissions, multimodel mean IVT increases by 30–40{\%} in the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks and in the equatorial Pacific Ocean trade winds. An acceleration of the high-latitude IVT is also shown. Analysis of low-altitude moisture and winds suggests that these changes are mainly due to higher atmospheric water vapor content.},
author = {Lavers, David A and Ralph, F Martin and Waliser, Duane E and Gershunov, Alexander and Dettinger, Michael D},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064672},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,climate change,water vapor transport},
number = {13},
pages = {5617--5625},
title = {{Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015GL064672},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lavers2013,
abstract = {Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about {\$}1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding.We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing. Keywords:},
author = {Lavers, David A. and Allan, Richard P. and Villarini, Gabriele and Lloyd-Hughes, Benjamin and Brayshaw, David J. and Wade, Andrew J.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034010},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {3},
pages = {034010},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain}},
volume = {8},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Lawrence2015,
abstract = {Considerable evidence from both modeling and empirical studies indicate that 10 deforestation on many scales influences local, regional, and even global climate. Deforestation-­‐ 11 driven changes to water availability and climate variability could have strong implications for 12 agricultural production systems and food security in some regions. Here we present what is 13 known about the impacts of tropical deforestation on climate at a range of spatial scales from 14 global scale modeling studies to point measurements at the plot scale. We describe the 15 commonalities and major differences in deforestation impacts in the three major tropical 16 regions of Amazonia, Central Africa, and Southeast Asia. We also point out key gaps in our 17 understanding and areas of uncertainty where studies have come to conflicting conclusions. 18 Finally, we assess the potential impact of deforestation-­‐driven climatic change on agricultural 19 productivity.},
author = {Lawrence, Deborah and Vandecar, Karen},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2430},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {1},
pages = {27--36},
pmid = {11737866},
title = {{Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture}},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lazenby2018,
author = {Lazenby, Melissa J. and Todd, Martin C. and Chadwick, Robin and Wang, Yi},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0311.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4807--4826},
title = {{Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0311.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Barbe1997,
abstract = {In the Sahel, rainfall is the single most important factor conditioning the hydrology and the climate, but comprehensive statistical analyses of the rainfall climatology in the region are rare. Yet, even though in the Sahel rainfall data are scarce by the standards of the temperate countries, it is shown here that it is possible to obtain a reasonably good idea of what the rainfall has been over Sahelian Niger for the past 40 years, both in terms of interannual variability and spatial distribution. To that aim a statistical model is used, which decomposes the space-time fluctuations of long-term rainfall averages into the fluctuations of the mean event rainfall on the one hand, and of the mean number of rainfall events over any period of accumulation, on the other hand. This model is first applied to the analysis of monthly rainfall data over the whole of Niger. It is shown that the lasting drought which has affected Niger for more than 20 years is associated with a decrease in the number of rainy events, rather than to a decrease of the mean event rainfall, and that this decrease is more pronounced for the core of the rainy season. Because these fluctuations are not homogeneous over Niger, a 5° × 4° zone centred on the HAPEX-Sahel 1° × 1° square is selected in order to characterise more accurately the rainfall climatology of the HAPEX-Sahel area between 1950 and 1990. In comparison with what it was between 1950 and 1970, the average length of the rainy season has not changed significantly during the dry period 1970–1990. Rather, it is the decrease of rainfall in July and August that explains most of the diminution of the total annual rainfall over this part of the Sahel since 1970. The average number of rainy events in August was reduced by about 30{\%}, while the mean event rainfall remained roughly constant. Finally, the analysis of the daily rainfall series for Niamey (which constitutes the longes record available in Niger, starting in 1905) enables the comparison of four periods of 20 years between 1910 and 1990. The period 1970–1989 appears to be by far the longest and most severe dry spell of the past century. Almost 90{\%} of the annual rainfall decrease over this period is explained by the decrease of the mean number of rainfall events during July and August, while both the length of the rainy season and the mean event rainfall remained stable.},
author = {{Le Barb{\'{e}}}, L. and Lebel, T.},
doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03154-X},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {feb},
pages = {43--73},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Rainfall climatology of the HAPEX-Sahel region during the years 1950–1990}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216949603154X?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S002216949603154X},
volume = {188-189},
year = {1997}
}
@article{LeBarbe2002a,
abstract = {The study presented here makes use of about 300 daily rain gauges covering a 1 700 000 km2 area in order to characterize the rainfall regimes of West Africa at hydrological scales. The rainfall regime is analyzed as a combination of two variables, the average number of events over a given period of time (nT) and the average cumulative rainfall per event (h). These two parameters are a measure of the occurrence rate and magnitude of the convective storms that generate most of the rainfall in this region. They define the average water input to the hydrological systems and the average time available for this water to be redistributed into the continental hydrological cycle before a new input occurs. By analyzing for a period of 40 yr (1951–90), the space and time variations of these two parameters, it is possible to better understand how the intraseasonal to decadal rainfall variability may impact on the hydrological cycle. The analysis is carried out in two steps. First, the annual cycle and migrations of the weather zones characterizing the climate of West Africa are considered. This leads to evidence of a sudden and synchronous rain onset between 9° and 13°N, which does not follow the classic scheme of a progressive migration of the rain zones, north and south with the sun. Second, the differences in the rainfall regimes between the two succeeding subperiods of 20 yr are obtained, the subperiod P1 (1951–70) being wet and the subperiod P2 (1971–90) being dry. The difference—averaged over the 16° by 12° study region—of the mean interannual rainfall between the wet and the dry periods is 180 mm yr−1. This difference is relatively evenly distributed in space, with no clear meridional gradient. Between these two periods, the parameter nT displays a systematic decrease, which appears well correlated to the decrease of the mean interannual rainfall. The variations of h are, by contrast, smaller in amplitude and more erratically distributed in space. When looking at the intraseasonal scale, it appears that the rainfall deficit of the dry period is primarily linked to a deficit of the number of events occurring during the core of the rainy season over the Sahel, and during the first rainy season for the region extending south to 9°–10°N. It is also shown that, in the south, the dry period is characterized by a shift in time of the second rainy season. All these characteristics have strong implications in term of agricultural and water resources management. They {\ldots}},
author = {{Le Barb{\'{e}}}, Luc and Lebel, Thierry and Tapsoba, Dominique},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0187:RVIWAD>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {187--202},
title = {{Rainfall Variability in West Africa during the Years 1950–90}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015{\%}3C0187:RVIWAD{\%}3E2.0.CO http://0.0.0.2},
volume = {15},
year = {2002}
}
@article{Lebel2003,
author = {Lebel, Thierry and Diedhiou, Arona and Laurent, Henri},
doi = {10.1029/2001JD001580},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Sahel,West African Monsoon,convective systems,rainfall,seasonal cycle},
month = {apr},
number = {D8},
pages = {8389},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the Sahelian rainfall at hydrological scales}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2001JD001580},
volume = {108},
year = {2003}
}
@article{Ledru2013,
abstract = {Abstract. To better characterize the climate variability of the last millennium in the high Andes, we analyzed the pollen content of a 1150-yr-old sediment core collected in a bog located at 3800 m a.s.l. in the p{\'{a}}ramo in the eastern Cordillera in Ecuador. An upslope convective index based on the ratio between cloud transported pollen from the Andean forest to the bog (T) and Poaceae pollen frequencies, related to the edaphic moisture of the p{\'{a}}ramo (P), was defined. This index was used to distinguish changes in the atmospheric moisture from the soil moisture content of the p{\'{a}}ramo and their associated patterns of interdecadal El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and South American summer monsoon (SASM) activity. Results show that between 850 and 1250 AD, the Medieval Climate Anomaly interval was warm and moist with a high transported pollen/Poaceae pollen (T/P) index linked to high ENSO variability and weak SASM activity. Between 1250 and 1550 AD, a dry climate prevailed, characterized by an abrupt decrease in the T/P index and therefore no upslope cloud convection, related to lower ENSO variability and with significant impact on the floristic composition of the p{\'{a}}ramo. During the Little Ice Age, two phases were observed: first, a wet phase between 1550 and 1750 AD linked to low ENSO variability in the Pacific and warm south equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) favored the return of a wet p{\'{a}}ramo, and then a cold and dry phase between 1750 and 1800 AD associated with low ENSO variability and weak SASM activity resulted in drying of the p{\'{a}}ramo. The current warm period marks the beginning of a climate characterized by high convective activity – the highest in the last millennium – and weaker SASM activity modifying the water storage of the p{\'{a}}ramo. Our results show that the p{\'{a}}ramo is progressively losing its capacity for water storage and that the interdecadal variability of both tropical Pacific and Atlantic SSTs matter for Andean climate patterns, although many teleconnection mechanisms are still poorly understood.},
author = {Ledru, M.-P. and Jomelli, V. and Samaniego, P. and Vuille, M. and Hidalgo, S. and Herrera, M. and Ceron, C.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-9-307-2013},
isbn = {1814-9359},
issn = {1814-9359},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {1},
pages = {307--321},
title = {{The Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age in the eastern Ecuadorian Andes}},
volume = {9},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Lee2016,
author = {Lee, Seoung Soo and Guo, Jianping and Li, Zhanqing},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD024362},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {11,739--11,760},
title = {{Delaying precipitation by air pollution over the Pearl River Delta: 2. Model simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015JD024362},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lee2015,
abstract = {The Dust Bowl refers to a disaster focused in the Southern Great Plains of North America during the 1930s, when the region experienced extreme wind erosion. Dry farming techniques increased soil erodibility. Drought reduced both soil cohesion, making it more erodible, and land cover, leaving the soil less protected from wind action. Low crop prices (driven by the Great Depression), extremely poor harvests (driven by drought), and lack of knowledge of regionally-appropriate tillage practices left farmers unable to implement erosion control on their land. The 1930s drought was severe, but neither unusual in the region nor extreme in length from a climatological perspective. Sea-surface temperature changes in the Atlantic and Pacific forced changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation over North America. The result was persistent, intensifying drought within the Southern Great Plains for multiple years, causing a cascade of desiccation. Increased atmospheric dust and increased frequency of cyclones crossing the region may also have exacerbated Dust Bowl conditions. The Dust Bowl resulted from the simultaneous combination of drought and economic depression in a region where farmers had not yet learned effective land management techniques. Economic recovery, cessation of drought, and implementation of erosion control programs combined to end the Dust Bowl by the end of the 1930s. Many lessons were learned from the 1930s Dust Bowl regarding the physical and anthropogenic causes of dust storms and how to mitigate them. As a result, though dust storms continue on the Southern Great Plains, their severity is significantly reduced.},
author = {Lee, Jeffrey A. and Gill, Thomas E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.aeolia.2015.09.002},
issn = {18759637},
journal = {Aeolian Research},
keywords = {Dust Bowl,Dust storm,Great Plains,Wind erosion},
month = {dec},
pages = {15--36},
title = {{Multiple causes of wind erosion in the Dust Bowl}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1875963715000798},
volume = {19},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lee2018c,
author = {Lee, Donghyun and Min, Seung-Ki and Fischer, Erich and Shiogama, Hideo and Bethke, Ingo and Lierhammer, Ludwig and Scinocca, John F},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {044033},
title = {{Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=4/a=044033?key=crossref.71fa3711fb75e791bc04eb9cbb726a6d},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lee2013b,
author = {Lee, June-Yi and Wang, Bin and Wheeler, Matthew C. and Fu, Xiouhua and Waliser, Duane E. and Kang, In-Sik},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1544-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {493--509},
title = {{Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1544-4},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Lee2013c,
abstract = {This study assesses the capability of CMIP5 models in representing primary modes of boreal winter extratropical low-frequency variability. Rotated principal component analysis is applied to monthly mean output from historical simulations of 14 plus two variants models and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses (NNR) to isolate the leading patterns of variability in 500 hPa height. For each model data set, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like and Pacific-North American (PNA)-like patterns are identified using pattern correlation analysis (against NNR patterns). The relative pattern correspondence among CMIP5 models and reanalyses is further quantified via cluster analyses of the rotated empirical orthogonal function, NAO-like, and PNA-like patterns, respectively. For both NAO and PNA, 18.8{\%} of the model patterns lie within the same cluster as NNR. Composite structural differences among clusters chiefly consist of (a) spatial displacements of or (b) regional magnitude disparities in the primary anomaly features. While all models replicate the basic aspects of PNA, a small minority of models fails to replicate NAO pattern. Overall, the best performing model is the "GFDL-ESM2G." Interestingly, models having a well-resolved stratosphere generally perform more poorly than those without. Model biases in low-frequency mode structure have important consequences for the representation of associated regional anomalies in surface air temperature and storm track behavior. Those differences among clusters are linked to variations in dynamical structures and their relation to the climatological-mean flow. It is concluded that some state-of-the-art models have important deficiencies in representing low-frequency variability and some of these deficiencies are associated with the failure of models to adequately replicate the observed climatological stationary waves. Key Points Deficiencies of CMIP5 models in representing low frequency variability structure Biases in representing regional weather contribution Importance of replicating observed climatological stationary wave {\textcopyright}2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Lee, Yun-Young and Black, Robert X.},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50493},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Boreal extratropical low-frequency variability,Climatological stationary waves,North Atlantic Oscillation,Pacific-North American pattern,Performance of GCMs in CMIP5,Relation of low-frequency variability with climato},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {6891--6904},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Boreal winter low-frequency variability in CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jgrd.50493},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Lee2015b,
abstract = {Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fastdrying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species.},
author = {Lee, Se-Yeun and Ryan, Maureen E. and Hamlet, Alan F. and Palen, Wendy J. and Lawler, Joshua J. and Halabisky, Meghan},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0136385},
editor = {Richardson, Curtis J.},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {e0136385},
title = {{Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands}},
url = {https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136385},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lee2018d,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Abstract. This study examines the role played by aerosol in torrential rain that occurred in the Seoul area, which is a conurbation area where urbanization has been rapid in the last few decades, using cloud-system-resolving model (CSRM) simulations. The model results show that the spatial variability in aerosol concentrations causes the inhomogeneity of the spatial distribution of evaporative cooling and the intensity of associated outflow around the surface. This inhomogeneity generates a strong convergence field in which torrential rain forms. With the increases in the variability in aerosol concentrations, the occurrence of torrential rain increases. This study finds that the effects of the increases in the variability play a much more important role in the increases in torrential rain than the much-studied effects of the increases in aerosol loading. Results in this study demonstrate that for a better understanding of extreme weather events such as torrential rain in urban areas, not only changing aerosol loading but also changing aerosol spatial distribution since industrialization should be considered in aerosol–precipitation interactions.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Lee, Seoung Soo and Kim, Byung-Gon and Li, Zhanqing and Choi, Yong-Sang and Jung, Chang-Hoon and Um, Junshik and Mok, Jungbin and Seo, Kyong-Hwan},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-12531-2018},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {12531--12550},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Aerosol as a potential factor to control the increasing torrential rain events in urban areas over the last decades}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/12531/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lehner2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day. In the Mediterranean and central Europe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain.},
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Coats, Sloan and Stocker, Thomas F. and Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Raible, Christoph C. and Smerdon, Jason E.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074117},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate modeling,climate targets,drought,drought risk,projections},
number = {14},
pages = {7419--7428},
title = {{Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates}},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lehner2019,
abstract = {Increasingly, climate change impact assessments rely directly on climate models. Assessments of future water security depend in part on how the land model components in climate models partition precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff, and on the sensitivity of this partitioning to climate. Runoff sensitivities are not well constrained, with CMIP5 models displaying a large spread for the present day, which projects onto change under warming, creating uncertainty. Here we show that constraining CMIP5 model runoff sensitivities with observed estimates could reduce uncertainty in runoff projection over the western United States by up to 50{\%}. We urge caution in the direct use of climate model runoff for applications and encourage model development to use regional-scale hydrological sensitivity metrics to improve projections for water security assessments. Model estimates of future hydroclimate are uncertain, especially at the regional scale. This Perspective argues that constraining model runoff and its sensitivity to precipitation and temperature can greatly reduce this uncertainty and improve climate model utility in water resource applications.},
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Wood, Andrew W. and Vano, Julie A. and Lawrence, David M. and Clark, Martyn P. and Mankin, Justin S.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x},
isbn = {4155801906},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate sciences,Hydrology},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {926--933},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0639-x},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lehner2020a,
abstract = {Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from internal variability, model response uncertainty, and emissions scenarios has historically relied on making assumptions about forced changes in the mean and variability. With the advent of multiple Single-Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles (SMILEs), these assumptions can be scrutinized, as they allow a more robust separation between sources of uncertainty. Here, the iconic framework from Hawkins and Sutton (2009) for uncertainty partitioning is revisited for temperature and precipitation projections using seven SMILEs and the Climate Model Intercomparison Projects CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives. The original approach is shown to work well at global scales (potential method error {\textless}20{\%}), while at local to regional scales such as British Isles temperature or Sahel precipitation, there is a notable potential method error (up to 50{\%}) and more accurate partitioning of uncertainty is achieved through the use of SMILEs. Whenever internal variability and forced changes therein are important, the need to evaluate and improve the representation of variability in models is evident. The available SMILEs are shown to be a good representation of the CMIP5 model diversity in many situations, making them a useful tool for interpreting CMIP5. CMIP6 often shows larger absolute and relative model uncertainty than CMIP5, although part of this difference can be reconciled with the higher average transient climate response in CMIP6. This study demonstrates the added value of a collection of SMILEs for quantifying and diagnosing uncertainty in climate projections.},
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Deser, Clara and Maher, Nicola and Marotzke, Jochem and Fischer, Erich M. and Brunner, Lukas and Knutti, Reto and Hawkins, Ed},
doi = {10.5194/esd-11-491-2020},
issn = {2190-4979},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {1--28},
title = {{Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple Large Ensembles and CMIP5/6}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/491/2020/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lehner2018a,
abstract = {The U.S. Southwest experienced a strong hydroclimate trend from the 1980s to the 2010s, from cool and wet to warm and dry conditions. Attribution of this trend is challenging due to the influence of internal variability but desired by water managers eager to plan for robust signals of climate change in this water-scarce region. Here we use an empirical method based on constructed circulation analogues to assess the contribution of atmospheric circulation variability to the recent observed hydroclimate trend. Consistent with other studies, we find the observed precipitation trend from 1983 to 2012 to be mainly due to internal atmospheric circulation variability that is driven in part by decadal-scale tropical Pacific sea surface temperature changes. Removing this internal dynamical component brings the observed precipitation trend into closer agreement with the anthropogenically forced response in climate models, demonstrating progress toward an integrated perspective on climate change attribution.},
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Deser, Clara and Simpson, Isla R. and Terray, Laurent},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078312},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {attribution,circulation,climate,drought,precipitation,southwest},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {6251--6261},
title = {{Attributing the U.S. Southwest's Recent Shift Into Drier Conditions}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL078312},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lei2017GRL,
abstract = {The recent growth and deepening of inland lakes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may be a salient indicator of the consequences of climate change. The seasonal dynamics of these lakes is poorly understood despite this being potentially crucial for disentangling contributions from glacier melt and precipitation, which are all sensitive to climate, to lake water budget. Using in situ observations, satellite altimetry and gravimetry data, we identified two patterns of lake level seasonality. In the central, northern, and northeastern TP, lake levels are characterized by considerable increases during warm seasons and decreases during cold seasons, which is consistent with regional mass changes related to monsoon precipitation and evaporation. In the northwestern TP, however, lake levels exhibit dramatic increases during both warm and cold seasons, which deviate from regional mass changes. This appears to be more connected with high spring snowfall and large summer glacier melt. The variable lake level response to different drivers indicates heterogeneous sensitivity to climate change between the northwestern TP and other regions.},
author = {Lei, Yanbin and Yao, Tandong and Yang, Kun and Sheng, Yongwei and Kleinherenbrink, Marcel and Yi, Shuang and Bird, Broxton W. and Zhang, Xiaowen and Zhu, La and Zhang, Guoqing},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL072062},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Tibetan Plateau hydrolgoy,lake seasonality},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {892--900},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Lake seasonality across the Tibetan Plateau and their varying relationship with regional mass changes and local hydrology}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2016gl072062},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{LeiteFilho2019,
abstract = {Amazonian deforestation is causing notable changes in the hydrological cycle by altering important precipitation characteristics. This study uses daily rainfall time series data from 112 rain gauges and a recent yearly 1‐km land use data set covering the period from 1974 to 2012 to evaluate the effects of the extent of deforestation at different spatial scales on the onset of the rainy season and on the duration of dry spells in southern Amazonia. Correlation analyses indicate a delay in the onset of 0.12–0.17 days per percent increase in deforestation. Analysis of cumulative probability density functions emphasizes that the likelihood of rainy season onset occurring earlier than normal decreases as the local deforestation fraction increases. In addition, the probability of occurrence of dry spells in the early and late rainy season is higher in areas with greater deforestation. The delayed onset and longer dry spell events in highly deforested areas increase the climate risk to agriculture in the region.},
author = {Leite‐Filho, Argemiro Teixeira and {Sousa Pontes}, Ver{\^{o}}nica Yame{\^{e}} and Costa, Marcos Heil},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD029537},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Amazonia,dry spell,land‐atmosphere interaction,rainy season},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5268--5281},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Effects of Deforestation on the Onset of the Rainy Season and the Duration of Dry Spells in Southern Amazonia}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD029537},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lejeune2015,
abstract = {The extent of the Amazon rainforest is projected to drastically decrease in future decades because of land-use changes. Previous climate modelling studies have found that the biogeophysical effects of future Amazonian deforesta-tion will likely increase surface temperatures and reduce precipitation locally. However, the magnitude of these changes and the potential existence of tipping points in the underlying relationships is still highly uncertain. Using a regional climate model at a resolution of about 50 km over the South American continent, we perform four ERA-interim-driven simulations with prescribed land cover maps corresponding to present-day vegetation, two deforestation scenarios for the twenty-first century, and a totally-defor-ested Amazon case. In response to projected land cover changes for 2100, we find an annual mean surface temper-ature increase of 0:5 C over the Amazonian region and an annual mean decrease in rainfall of 0.17 mm/day compared to present-day conditions. These estimates reach 0:8 C and 0.22 mm/day in the total-deforestation case. We also com-pare our results to those from 28 previous (regional and global) climate modelling experiments. We show that the historical development of climate models did not modify the median estimate of the Amazonian climate sensitivity to deforestation, but led to a reduction of its uncertainty. Our results suggest that the biogeophysical effects of deforesta-tion alone are unlikely to lead to a tipping point in the evolution of the regional climate under present-day climate conditions. However, the conducted synthesis of the litera-ture reveals that this behaviour may be model-dependent, and the greenhouse gas-induced climate forcing and bio-geochemical feedbacks should also be taken into account to fully assess the future climate of this region.},
author = {Lejeune, Quentin and Davin, Edouard L. and Guillod, Benoit P. and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2203-8},
isbn = {0930-7575},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Amazonian Land-use and land-cover changes,Tipping points,Twenty-first century},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2769--2786},
title = {{Influence of Amazonian deforestation on the future evolution of regional surface fluxes, circulation, surface temperature and precipitation}},
volume = {44},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lemieux2020,
abstract = {Groundwater distribution and flow dynamics were studied in a small watershed located in the discontinuous permafrost zone near Umiujaq in Nunavik (Qu{\'{e}}bec), Canada, to assess the seasonal variations and perform a quantitative analysis of the water cycle in a subarctic watershed. Due to the complexity of the subsurface geology within the watershed, an integrated investigation was instrumental to provide a detailed understanding of the hydrogeological context as a basis for the water balance. Based on this water balance, for the two studied hydrological years of 2015 and 2016, the average values are 828 mm for precipitation, 337 mm for evapotranspiration, 46 mm for snow sublimation, 263 mm for runoff, 183 mm for groundwater exchange (losses with other aquifers outside the watershed), and 0 mm for change in water storage. Although these values likely have significant uncertainty and spatial variability, this water balance is shown to be plausible. It was also found that permafrost influences surface water and groundwater interaction, even if located in low-permeability sediments. It is expected that permafrost degradation will likely increase stream baseflow, especially in winter.},
author = {Lemieux, Jean-Michel and Fortier, Richard and Murray, Renaud and Dagenais, Sophie and Cochand, Marion and Delottier, Hugo and Therrien, Ren{\'{e}} and Molson, John and Pryet, Alexandre and Parhizkar, Masoumeh},
doi = {10.1007/s10040-020-02110-4},
issn = {1435-0157},
journal = {Hydrogeology Journal},
number = {3},
pages = {833--851},
title = {{Groundwater dynamics within a watershed in the discontinuous permafrost zone near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Canada)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02110-4},
volume = {28},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lemordant2018,
abstract = {Predicting how increasing atmospheric CO2 will affect the hydrologic cycle is of utmost importance for a range of applications ranging from ecological services to human life and activities. A typical perspective is that hydrologic change is driven by precipitation and radiation changes due to climate change, and that the land surface will adjust. Using Earth system models with decoupled surface (vegetation physiology) and atmospheric (radiative) CO2 responses, we here show that the CO2 physiological response has a dominant role in evapotranspiration and evaporative fraction changes and has a major effect on long-term runoff compared with radiative or precipitation changes due to increased atmospheric CO2. This major effect is true for most hydrological stress variables over the largest fraction of the globe, except for soil moisture, which exhibits a more nonlinear response. This highlights the key role of vegetation in controlling future terrestrial hydrologic response and emphasizes that the carbon and water cycles are intimately coupled over land.},
author = {Lemordant, L{\'{e}}o and Gentine, Pierre and Swann, Abigail S. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Scheff, Jacob},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1720712115},
isbn = {1720712115},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Climate change,Coupling,Hydrology,Land–atmosphere,Vegetation physiology,Water cycle},
number = {16},
pages = {4093--4098},
pmid = {29610293},
title = {{Critical impact of vegetation physiology on the continental hydrologic cycle in response to increasing CO2}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1720712115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lenderink2017,
abstract = {Present-day precipitation–temperature scaling relations indicate that hourly precipitation extremes may have a response to warming exceeding the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation; for the Netherlands the dependency on surface dewpoint temperature follows 2 times the CC relation (2CC). The authors' hypothesis—as supported by a simple physical argument presented here—is that this 2CC behavior arises from the physics of convective clouds. To further investigate this, the large-scale atmospheric conditions accompanying summertime afternoon precipitation events are analyzed using surface observations combined with a regional reanalysis. Events are precipitation measurements clustered in time and space. The hourly peak intensities of these events again reveal a 2CC scaling with the surface dewpoint temperature. The temperature excess of moist updrafts initialized at the surface and the maximum cloud depth are clear functions of surface dewpoint, confirming the key role of surface humidity on convective activity. Almost no differences in relative humidity and the dry temperature lapse rate were found across the dewpoint temperature range, supporting the theory that 2CC scaling is mainly due to the response of convection to increases in near-surface humidity, while other atmospheric conditions remain similar. Additionally, hourly precipitation extremes are on average accompanied by substantial large-scale upward motions and therefore large-scale moisture convergence, which appears to accelerate with surface dewpoint. Consequently, most hourly extremes occur in precipitation events with considerable spatial extent. Importantly, this event size appears to increase rapidly at the highest dewpoint temperature range, suggesting potentially strong impacts of climatic warming.},
author = {Lenderink, G. and Barbero, R. and Loriaux, J. M. and Fowler, H. J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0808.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Convection,Extreme events,Precipitation,Reanalysis data,Surface observations},
number = {15},
pages = {6037--6052},
title = {{Super-Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly convective precipitation and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lenderink2019,
author = {Lenderink, Geert and Belu{\v{s}}i{\'{c}}, Danijel and Fowler, Hayley J and Kjellstr{\"{o}}m, Erik and Lind, Petter and van Meijgaard, Erik and van Ulft, Bert and de Vries, Hylke},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab214a},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,convection-permitting regional,convective precipitation,precipitation extremes,sub-daily precipitation},
number = {7},
pages = {074012},
title = {{Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model}},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{lhtgl14,
author = {Leng, Guoyong and Huang, Maoyi and Tang, Qiuhong and Gao, Huilin and Leung, L},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-13-049.1},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
number = {957},
pages = {13--49},
title = {{Modeling the Effects of Groundwater-Fed Irrigation on Terrestrial Hydrology over the Conterminous United States}},
volume = {15},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Leng2015,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2015. The Authors. This study investigates the effects of irrigation on global water resources by performing and analyzing Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) simulations driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs). For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were performed: (1) a CTRL experiment in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an IRRIG experiment in which the irrigation module is activated using surface water (SW) to feed irrigation; and (3) a PUMP experiment in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater (GW) for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based water use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major effects: SW (GW) depletion in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW (GW), respectively. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting increased vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century, combined effect of increased irrigation water demand and amplified temporal-spatial variability of w ater supply may lead to severe local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our study highlights the need to account for irrigation effects and sources in assessing regional climate change impacts.},
author = {Leng, Guoyong and Huang, Maoyi and Tang, Qiuhong and Leung, L. Ruby},
doi = {10.1002/2015MS000437},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {CLM,global,groundwater pumping,irrigation,surface water/groundwater},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {1285--1304},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000437},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@article{lcbm19,
abstract = {In October 2000, a high‐impact lake flood event occurred in southern Switzerland. During the month prior to the flood event three heavy precipitation events (HPEs) occurred. The first two events preconditioned the catchment and brought the lake close to its flood level. During the third event the lake level rose above the flood threshold. At the same time, anomalously high blocking activity was observed in the northern North Atlantic/European region. This study describes the synoptic development during the month prior to the flood and investigates the role of atmospheric blocking in the formation of the HPEs using ERA‐Interim data. Atmospheric blocks are identified as persistent negative potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the upper troposphere. All three heavy precipitation events were forced by upper‐level equatorward elongated streams of stratospheric high‐PV air (PV streamers). These PV streamers formed in the strong deformation field upstream and downstream of single blocks or in between two blocks. During the third and most persistent heavy precipitation episode the eastward propagation of the PV streamer was prevented by a downstream block for several days leading to a stationary upper‐level northeastward flow and a prolonged period of heavy precipitation over the catchment. The study identifies and quantifies a potential feedback between heavy precipitation and blocks via diabatic depletion of PV. It is shown that a substantial fraction of the diabatically modified low‐PV air (63{\%}) that reached and strengthened the blocks over the Atlantic and Europe during this month experienced heating in HPE areas.},
author = {Lenggenhager, Sina and Croci‐Maspoli, Mischa and Br{\"{o}}nnimann, Stefan and Martius, Olivia},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3449},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {Switzerland dynamic processes,extratropical weather systems,floods,midlatitude rainfall,troposphere},
month = {jan},
number = {719},
pages = {530--545},
publisher = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
title = {{On the dynamical coupling between atmospheric blocks and heavy precipitation events: A discussion of the southern Alpine flood in October 2000}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3449 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.3449},
volume = {145},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lenton:2008,
author = {Lenton, Timothy M and Held, Hermann and Kriegler, Elmar and Hall, Jim W and Lucht, Wolfgang and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0705414105},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {6},
pages = {1786--1793},
publisher = {National Acad Sciences},
title = {{Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system}},
volume = {105},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Leutwyler2017,
abstract = {Convection-resolving models allow to explicitly resolve deep convection at horizontal grid spacings of O(1 km). On current supercomputers, refining the grid spacing to the kilometer scale is computationally still extremely demanding, and therefore, climate simulations at this resolution have so far largely been limited to subcontinental computational domains. However, new supercomputers that mix conventional multicore CPUs and accelerators possess properties beneficial for climate codes. Exploiting these capabilities allows expansion of the size of the computational domains to continental scales. Here we present such a convection-resolving climate simulation, using a version of the COSMO model, capable of exploiting GPU accelerators. The simulation has a grid spacing of 2.2 km, 1536 × 1536 × 60 grid points, covers the period 1999–2008, and is driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. An assessment of the 10-year-long simulation is conducted using a wide range of data sets, including several rain gauge networks, energy balance stations, and a remotely sensed lightning data set. Substantial improvements are found for the 2 km simulation in terms of the diurnal cycles of precipitation. This confirms results found in studies using smaller computational domains. However, the continental-scale simulations also reveal deficiencies such as substantial performance differences between regions with and without strong orographic forcing. Analysis of the statistical distribution of updrafts and downdrafts shows an increase of the amplitude in seasons with convection and a pronounced asymmetry between updrafts and downdrafts. Furthermore, the analysis of lightning data shows that the convection-resolving simulation is able to reproduce important features of the annual cycle of deep convection in Europe.},
author = {Leutwyler, David and L{\"{u}}thi, Daniel and Ban, Nikolina and Fuhrer, Oliver and Sch{\"{a}}r, Christoph},
doi = {10.1002/2016JD026013},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Convection-permitting resolution,model,section5},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5237--5258},
title = {{Evaluation of the convection-resolving climate modeling approach on continental scales}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016JD026013},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Levang2015,
abstract = {AbstractThe global water cycle is predicted to intensify under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Here we assess the nature and strength of the expected changes for the ocean in the coming century by examining the output of several CMIP5 model runs for the periods 1990-2000 and 2090-2100 and comparing them to a dataset built from modern observations. Key elements of the water cycle, such as the atmospheric vapor transport, the evaporation minus precipitation over the ocean and the surface salinity, show significant changes over the coming century. The intensification of the water cycle leads to increased salinity contrasts in the ocean, both within and between basins. Regional projections for several areas important to large-scale ocean circulation are presented, including the export of atmospheric moisture across the tropical Americas from Atlantic to Pacific, the freshwater gain of high latitude deepwater formation sites, and the basin averaged evaporation minus precipitation with implications for interbasin mass transports.},
author = {Levang, Samuel J. and Schmitt, Raymond W.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0143.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate prediction,Hydrologic cycle,Salinity,Water budget,Water vapor},
number = {16},
pages = {6489--6502},
title = {{Centennial changes of the global water cycle in CMIP5 models}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Levine19012016,
abstract = {Amazon forests, which store ∼50{\%} of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.},
author = {Levine, Naomi M and Zhang, Ke and Longo, Marcos and Baccini, Alessandro and Phillips, Oliver L and Lewis, Simon L and Alvarez-D{\'{a}}vila, Esteban and de Andrade, Ana Cristina and Brienen, Roel J W and Erwin, Terry L and Feldpausch, Ted R and {Monteagudo Mendoza}, Abel Lorenzo and {Nu{\~{n}}ez Vargas}, Percy and Prieto, Adriana and Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo and Malhi, Yadvinder and Moorcroft, Paul R},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1511344112},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {3},
pages = {793--797},
title = {{Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/113/3/793.abstract},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Levy2013,
abstract = {To the extent that deficiencies in GCM simulations of precipitation are due to persistent errors of location and timing, correcting the spatial and seasonal distribution of features would provide a physically based improvement in inter-model agreement on future changes. We use a tool for the analysis of medical images to warp the precipitation climatologies of 14 General Circulation Models (GCMs) closer to a reanalysis of observations, rather than adjusting intensities locally as in conventional bias correction techniques. These warps are then applied to the same GCMs' simulated changes in mean climate under a CO2 quadrupling experiment. We find that the warping process not only makes GCMs' historical climatologies more closely resemble reanalysis but also reduces the disagreement between the models' response to this external forcing. Developing a tool that is tailored for the specific requirements of climate fields may provide further improvement, particularly in combination with local bias correction techniques.},
author = {Levy, Adam A L and Ingram, William and Jenkinson, Mark and Huntingford, Chris and Lambert, F. Hugo and Allen, Myles},
doi = {10.1029/2012GL053964},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {2},
pages = {354--358},
title = {{Can correcting feature location in simulated mean climate improve agreement on projected changes?}},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Levy2018,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Nearly half of recent decades' global forest loss occurred in the Amazon and Cerrado (tropical savanna) biomes of Brazil, known as the arc of deforestation. Despite prior analysis in individual river basins, a generalizable empirical understanding of the effect of deforestation on streamflow across this region is lacking. We frame land use change in Brazil as a natural experiment and draw on in situ and remote sensing evidence in 324 river basins covering more than 3 × 106 km2to estimate streamflow changes caused by deforestation and agricultural development between 1950 and 2013. Deforestation increased dry season low flow by between 4 and 10 percentage points (relative to the forested condition), corresponding to a regional- and time-averaged rate of increase in specific streamflow of 1.29 mm/year2, equivalent to a 4.08 km3/year2increase, assuming a stationary climate. In conjunction with rainfall and temperature variations, the net (observed) average increase in streamflow over the same period was 0.76 mm/year2, or 2.41 km3/year2. Thus, net increases in regional streamflow in the past half century are 58{\%} of those that would have been experienced with deforestation given a stationary climate. This study uses a causal empirical analysis approach novel to the water sciences to verify the regional applicability of prior basin-scale studies, provides a proof of concept for the use of observational causal identification methods in the water sciences, and demonstrates that deforestation masks the streamflow-reducing effects of climate change in this region.},
author = {Levy, M. C. and Lopes, A. V. and Cohn, A. and Larsen, L. G. and Thompson, S. E.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076526},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Amazon,climate change,deforestation,hydrology,land use change},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {3520--3530},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Land Use Change Increases Streamflow Across the Arc of Deforestation in Brazil}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076526},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Li2018GRL,
abstract = {Anthropogenic aerosols are a major factor contributing to human-induced climate change, particularly over the densely populated Asian monsoon region. Understanding the physical processes controlling the aerosol-induced changes in monsoon rainfall is essential for reducing the uncertainties in the future projections of the hydrological cycle. Here we use multiple coupled and atmospheric general circulation models to explore the physical mechanisms for the aerosol-driven monsoon changes on different time scales. We show that anthropogenic aerosols induce an overall reduction in monsoon rainfall and circulation, which can be largely explained by the fast adjustments over land north of 20 ∘ N. This fast response occurs before changes in sea surface temperature (SST), largely driven by aerosol-cloud interactions. However, aerosol-induced SST feedbacks (slow response) cause substantial changes in the monsoon meridional circulation over the oceanic regions. Both the land-ocean asymmetry and meridional temperature gradient are key factors in determining the overall monsoon circulation response.},
annote = {reduction in monsoon rainfall and circulation from fast adjustment to aerosol-cloud interactions},
author = {Li, Xiaoqiong and Ting, Mingfang and Lee, Dong Eun},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076667},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {n  effect,fast adjustment},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {1001--1010},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Fast Adjustments of the Asian Summer Monsoon to Anthropogenic Aerosols}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076667},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Li2016,
abstract = {The increasing severity of droughts/floods and worsening air quality from increasing aerosols in Asia monsoon regions are the two gravest threats facing over 60{\%} of the world population living in Asian monsoon regions. These dual threats have fueled a large body of research in the last decade on the roles of aerosols in impacting Asian monsoon weather and climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on Asian aerosols, monsoons, and their interactions. The Asian monsoon region is a primary source of emissions of diverse species of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural origins. The distributions of aerosol loading are strongly influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes, which are, in turn, modulated by aerosol effects. On a continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land‐ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulations. The atmospheric thermodynamic state, which determines the formation of clouds, convection, and precipitation, may also be altered by aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and desert dust in Asian monsoon regions may also induce dynamical feedback processes, leading to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affecting the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of different monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol‐monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol‐monsoon climate system, subject to external forcing of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol‐monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long‐term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.},
author = {Li, Zhanqing and Lau, W. K.M. and Ramanathan, V. and Wu, G. and Ding, Y. and Manoj, M. G. and Liu, J. and Qian, Y. and Li, J. and Zhou, T. and Fan, J. and Rosenfeld, D. and Ming, Y. and Wang, Y. and Huang, J. and Wang, B. and Xu, X. and Lee, S. S. and Cribb, M. and Zhang, F. and Yang, X. and Zhao, C. and Takemura, T. and Wang, K. and Xia, X. and Yin, Y. and Zhang, H. and Guo, J. and Zhai, P. M. and Sugimoto, N. and Babu, S. S. and Brasseur, G. P.},
doi = {10.1002/2015RG000500},
isbn = {1944-9208},
issn = {19449208},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {Asia,aerosol,climate,environment,monsoon,pollution},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {866--929},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015RG000500},
volume = {54},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Li2013GRL,
abstract = {We investigate the scaling between precipitation and temperature changes in warm and cold climates using six models that have simulated the response to both increased CO2 and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) boundary conditions. Globally, precipitation increases in warm climates and decreases in cold climates by between 1.5{\%}/°C and 3{\%}/°C. Precipitation sensitivity to temperature changes is lower over the land than over the ocean and lower over the tropical land than over the extratropical land, reflecting the constraint of water availability. The wet tropics get wetter in warm climates and drier in cold climates, but the changes in dry areas differ among models. Seasonal changes of tropical precipitation in a warmer world also reflect this “rich get richer” syndrome. Precipitation seasonality is decreased in the cold-climate state. The simulated changes in precipitation per degree temperature change are comparable to the observed changes in both the historical period and the LGM.},
author = {Li, Guangqi and Harrison, Sandy P. and Bartlein, Patrick J. and Izumi, Kenji and {Colin Prentice}, I.},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50730},
isbn = {00948276},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Clausius-Clapeyron relationship,evaporation,global water cycle,land-surface modelclimate reconstructions scaling},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {4018--4024},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: An analysis of CMIP5 simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2Fgrl.50730},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Li2018Science,
abstract = {Energy generation by wind and solar farms could reduce carbon emissions and thus mitigate anthropogenic climate change. But is this its only benefit? Li et al. conducted experiments using a climate model to show that the installation of large-scale wind and solar power generation facilities in the Sahara could cause more local rainfall, particularly in the neighboring Sahel region. This effect, caused by a combination of increased surface drag and reduced albedo, could increase coverage by vegetation, creating a positive feedback that would further increase rainfall.Science, this issue p. 1019Wind and solar farms offer a major pathway to clean, renewable energies. However, these farms would significantly change land surface properties, and, if sufficiently large, the farms may lead to unintended climate consequences. In this study, we used a climate model with dynamic vegetation to show that large-scale installations of wind and solar farms covering the Sahara lead to a local temperature increase and more than a twofold precipitation increase, especially in the Sahel, through increased surface friction and reduced albedo. The resulting increase in vegetation further enhances precipitation, creating a positive albedo–precipitation–vegetation feedback that contributes {\~{}}80{\%} of the precipitation increase for wind farms. This local enhancement is scale dependent and is particular to the Sahara, with small impacts in other deserts.},
annote = {large-scale solar and wind farms in Sahel doubled precipitation when including dynamic vegetation in a modelling study},
author = {Li, Yan and Kalnay, Eugenia and Motesharrei, Safa and Rivas, Jorge and Kucharski, Fred and Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel and Bach, Eviatar and Zeng, Ning},
doi = {10.1126/science.aar5629},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {sep},
number = {6406},
pages = {1019--1022},
pmid = {30190404},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science ({\{}AAAS{\}})},
title = {{Climate Model Shows Large-Scale Wind and Solar Farms in the Sahara Increase Rain and Vegetation}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6406/1019.abstract},
volume = {361},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Li2018m,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2018 Royal Meteorological Society. Errors are quite large in the simulated carbon and water fluxes obtained by global models used for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and reducing those errors is important for improving our confidence about these models and their projections. Errors in model parameter values are a major cause of those large modelling errors but can be significantly reduced if model parameter values are optimized. While parameter optimizations have been carried out at local sites or regional scales, parameter optimizations have been rarely conducted at the global scale because of the high computing costs required to optimize a large ( {\textgreater} 100) number of model parameters. In this study, we used an adaptive surrogate modelling based optimization (ASMO) method to maximize the match between simulated monthly global gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat flux (LE) derived by two global land surface models (LSMs) and the model-data products for global GPP and LE from the 1982-2008 period generated by the Max Plank Institute. The ASMO method only required a few hundred model runs to find the optimal values of all optimized parameters for the two global LSMs [the Australian Community Atmosphere-Biosphere-Land Exchange (CABLE) and joint UK land environment simulator (JULES)]. Our results show that up to 65{\%} of the model errors can be reduced by parameter optimization for most of the plant functional types (PFTs) and that the model performances of CABLE and JULES are significantly improved at 72 and 93{\%} of the land points, respectively. At last, we discuss the limitations of this work and recommend that parameter optimization based on surrogate modelling using various observational data sets and acceptable prior information of uncertainties in model structure and observations should be considered as a key step in improving the performance of global LSMs or model intercomparisons.},
author = {Li, Jianduo and Duan, Qingyun and Wang, Ying Ping and Gong, Wei and Gan, Yanjun and Wang, Chen},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5428},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {carbon flux,global land surface modelling,parameter optimization,surrogate model,water flux},
number = {January},
pages = {e1016--e1031},
title = {{Parameter optimization for carbon and water fluxes in two global land surface models based on surrogate modelling}},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{llw13,
author = {Li, F and Levis, S and Ward, D S},
doi = {10.5194/bg-10-2293-2013},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
pages = {2293--2314},
title = {{Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system – Part 1: Improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2293-2013},
volume = {10},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Li2014,
abstract = {Current climate model projections do not exhibit a large change in the intensity of extratropical cyclones. However, there are concerns that current models represent moist processes poorly, and this provides motivation for investigating observational evidence for how cyclones behave in warmer climates. In the North Atlantic in particular, recent decades provide a clear contrast between warm and cold climates due to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In this paper we investigate these periods as analogues which may provide a guide to future cyclone behavior. While temperature and moisture rise in recent warm periods as in the projections, differences in energetics and temperature gradients imply that these periods are only partial analogues. The main result from current reanalyses is that while increased cyclone-associated precipitation is seen in the recent warm periods, there is no robust evidence of an increase in cyclone intensity by other measures, such as maximum wind speed or vorticity. A set of low- and high-resolution model simulations are also studied, suggesting that changes in cyclone intensity may be different in higher-resolution reanalyses.},
author = {Li, Muxingzi and Woollings, Tim and Hodges, Kevin and Masato, Giacomo},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL062186},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Atlantic Multidecadal Variability,climate change,storm tracks},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {8594--8601},
title = {{Extratropical cyclones in a warmer, moister climate: A recent Atlantic analogue}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014GL062186},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Li2019,
author = {Li, Yun and Tao, Hui and Su, Buda and Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. and Jiang, Tong},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.126},
issn = {00489697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
month = {feb},
pages = {2866--2873},
title = {{Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on winter snow depth in Central Asia}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969718340075},
volume = {651},
year = {2019}
}
@article{lcwf16,
abstract = {Abstract. The dramatic increase of global temperature since the year 2000 has a considerable impact on the global water cycle and vegetation dynamics. Little has been done about recent feedback of vegetation to climate in different parts of the world, and land evapotranspiration (ET) is the means of this feedback. Here we used the global 1 km MODIS net primary production (NPP) and ET data sets (2000–2014) to investigate their temporospatial changes under the context of global warming. The results showed that global NPP slightly increased in 2000–2014 at a rate of 0.06 PgC yr−2. More than 64 {\%} of vegetated land in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) showed increased NPP (at a rate of 0.13 PgC yr−2), while 60.3 {\%} of vegetated land in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) showed a decreasing trend (at a rate of −0.18 PgC yr−2). Vegetation greening and climate change promote rises of global ET. Specially, the increased rate of land ET in the NH (0.61 mm yr−2) is faster than that in the SH (0.41 mm yr−2). Over the same period, global warming and vegetation greening accelerate evaporation in soil moisture, thus reducing the amount of soil water storage. Continuation of these trends will likely exacerbate regional drought-induced disturbances and point to an increased risk of ecological drought, especially during regional dry climate phases.},
author = {Li, Zhi and Chen, Yaning and Wang, Yang and Fang, Gonghuan},
doi = {10.5194/hess-20-2169-2016},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {2169--2178},
title = {{Dynamic changes in terrestrial net primary production and their effects on evapotranspiration}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/20/2169/2016/},
volume = {20},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Li2017i,
abstract = {Land surface models (LSMs) are important tools for simulating energy, water and momentum transfer across the land-atmosphere interface. Many LSMs have been developed over the past 50 years, including the Common Land Model (CoLM), a LSM that has primarily been developed and maintained by Chinese researchers. CoLM has been adopted by several Chinese Earth System Models (GCMs) that will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, we evaluate the performance of CoLM with respect to simulating the water and energy budgets. We compare simulations using the latest version of CoLM (CoLM2014), the previous version of CoLM (CoLM2005) that was used in the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-GCM) for CMIP5, and the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) against global diagnostic data and observations. Our results demonstrate that CLM4.5 outperforms CoLM2005 and CoLM2014 in simulating runoff (R), although all three models overestimate runoff in northern Europe and underestimate runoff in North America and East Asia. Simulations of runoff and snow depth (SNDP) are substantially improved in CoLM2014 relative to CoLM2005, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated global energy budget is also substantially improved in CoLM2014 relative to CoLM2005. Simulations of sensible heat (SH) based on CoLM2014 compare favorably to those based on CLM4.5, while root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) in net surface radiation indicate that CoLM2014 (RMSE = 16.02 W m-2) outperforms both CoLM2005 (17.41 W m-2) and CLM4.5 (23.73W m-2). Comparisons at regional scales show that all three models perform poorly in the Amazon region but perform relatively well over the central United States, Siberia and the Tibetan Plateau. Overall, CoLM2014 is improved relative to CoLM2005, and is comparable to CLM4.5 with respect to many aspects of the energy and water budgets. Our evaluation confirms CoLM2014 is suitable for inclusion in Chinese GCMs, which will increase the diversity of LSMs considered during CMIP6.},
author = {Li, Chengwei and Lu, Hui and Yang, Kun and Wright, Jonathon S. and Yu, Le and Chen, Yingying and Huang, Xiaomeng and Xu, Shiming},
doi = {10.3390/atmos8080141},
issn = {20734433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
keywords = {CMIP6,Common Land Model (CoLM),Energy,Land surface models,Water},
number = {8},
pages = {141},
title = {{Evaluation of the Common Land Model (CoLM) from the perspective of water and energy budget simulation: Towards inclusion in CMIP6}},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Li2021a,
abstract = {This study outlines a framework for examining potential impacts of future climate change in Poyang Lake water levels using linked models. The catchment hydrological model (WATLAC) was used to simulate river runoffs from a baseline period (1986–2005) and near-future (2020–2035) climate scenarios based on eight global climate models (GCMs). Outputs from the hydrological model combined with the Yangtze River's effects were fed into a lake water-level model, developing in the back-propagation neural network. Model projections indicate that spring–summer water levels of Poyang Lake are expected to increase by 5–25{\%}, and autumn–winter water levels are likely to be lower and decrease by 5–30{\%}, relative to the baseline period. This amounts to higher lake water levels by as much as 2 m in flood seasons and lower water levels in dry seasons in the range of 0.1–1.3 m, indicating that the lake may be wet-get-wetter and dry-get-drier. The probability of occurrence for both the extreme high and low water levels may exhibit obviously increasing trends by up to 5{\%} more than at present, indicating an increased risk in the severity of lake floods and droughts. Projected changes also include possible shifts in the timing and magnitude of the lake water levels.},
author = {Li, Yunliang and Zhang, Qi and Tao, Hui and Yao, Jing},
doi = {10.2166/nh.2019.064},
issn = {0029-1277},
journal = {Hydrology Research},
keywords = {Poyang Lake,floods and droughts,hydrological projection,integrated model,| climate change},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {43--60},
publisher = {IWA Publishing},
title = {{Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on water-level dynamics in the large Poyang Lake (China)}},
url = {http://iwaponline.com/hr/article-pdf/52/1/43/846779/nh0520043.pdf},
volume = {52},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Li2020c,
abstract = {When a hurricane strikes land, the destruction of property and the environment and the loss of life are largely confined to a narrow coastal area. This is because hurricanes are fuelled by moisture from the ocean1–3, and so hurricane intensity decays rapidly after striking land4,5. In contrast to the effect of a warming climate on hurricane intensification, many aspects of which are fairly well understood6–10, little is known of its effect on hurricane decay. Here we analyse intensity data for North Atlantic landfalling hurricanes11 over the past 50 years and show that hurricane decay has slowed, and that the slowdown in the decay over time is in direct proportion to a contemporaneous rise in the sea surface temperature12. Thus, whereas in the late 1960s a typical hurricane lost about 75 per cent of its intensity in the first day past landfall, now the corresponding decay is only about 50 per cent. We also show, using computational simulations, that warmer sea surface temperatures induce a slower decay by increasing the stock of moisture that a hurricane carries as it hits land. This stored moisture constitutes a source of heat that is not considered in theoretical models of decay13–15. Additionally, we show that climate-modulated changes in hurricane tracks16,17 contribute to the increasingly slow decay. Our findings suggest that as the world continues to warm, the destructive power of hurricanes will extend progressively farther inland.},
author = {Li, Lin and Chakraborty, Pinaki},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2867-7},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7833},
pages = {230--234},
title = {{Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2867-7},
volume = {587},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Li2017l,
abstract = {While the method for estimating the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is now more closely aligned to key water balance components, a comprehensive assessment for measuring long-term droughts that recognizes meteorological, agro-ecological and hydrological perspectives and their attributions is still lacking. Based on physical approaches linked to potential evapotranspiration (PET), the PDSI in 1965-2014 showed a mixture of drying (42{\%} of the land area) and wetting (58{\%} of the land area) that combined to give a slightly wetting trend (0.0036 per year). Despite the smaller overall trend, there is a switch to a drying trend over the past decade (-0.023 per year). We designed numerical experiments and found that PDSI trend responding to the dramatic increase in air temperature and slight change in precipitation. The variabilities of meteorological and agro-ecological droughts were broadly comparable to various PDSI drought index. Interestingly, the hydrological drought was not completely comparable to the PDSI, which indicates that runoff in arid and semi-arid regions was not generated primarily from precipitation. Instead, fraction of glacierized areas in catchments caused large variations in the observed runoff changes.},
author = {Li, Zhi and Chen, Yaning and Fang, Gonghuan and Li, Yupeng},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-01473-1},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1316},
pmid = {28465559},
title = {{Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01473-1},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Li2012,
abstract = {Semi-permanent high-pressure systems over the subtropical oceans, known as subtropical highs, influence atmospheric circulation, as well as global climate. For instance, subtropical highs largely determine the location of the world's subtropical deserts, the zones of Mediterranean climate and the tracks of tropical cyclones. The intensity of two such high-pressure systems, present over the Northern Hemisphere oceans during the summer, has changed in recent years. However, whether such changes are related to climate warming remains unclear. Here, we use climate model simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, reanalysis data from the 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and an idealized general circulation model, to assess future changes in the intensity of summertime subtropical highs over the Northern Hemisphere oceans. The simulations suggest that these summertime highs will intensify in the twenty-first century as a result of an increase in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations. We further show that the intensification of subtropical highs is predominantly caused by an increase in thermal contrast between the land and ocean. We suggest that summertime near-surface subtropical highs could play an increasingly important role in regional climate and hydrological extremes in the future.},
author = {Li, Wenhong and Li, Laifang and Ting, Mingfang and Liu, Yimin},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1590},
issn = {17520894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {830--834},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Intensification of Northern Hemisphere subtropical highs in a warming climate}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1590 http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1590},
volume = {5},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Li2019a,
author = {Li, Donghuan and Zhou, Tianjun and Zhang, Wenxia},
doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/ab3971},
journal = {Environmental Research Communications},
number = {8},
pages = {085002},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Extreme precipitation over East Asia under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming targets: a comparison of stabilized and overshoot projections}},
volume = {1},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Li2016b,
author = {Li, Xiaofan and Hu, Zeng-zhen and Jiang, Xingwen and Li, Yueqing and Gao, Zongting and Yang, Song and Xingwen, Jiang and Yueqing, Li and Zongting, Dao and Song, Yang and Jieshun, Zhu and Bhaskar, Jha},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4592},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
number = {December 2015},
pages = {3781--3793},
title = {{Trend and seasonality of land precipitation in observations and CMIP5 model simulations}},
volume = {3793},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Li2011a,
author = {Li, W and Li, L and Fu, R and Deng, Y and Wang, H},
doi = {10.1175/2010JCLI3829.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {5},
pages = {1499--1506},
title = {{Changes to the North Atlantic Subtropical High and Its Role in the Intensification of Summer Rainfall Variability in the Southeastern United States}},
volume = {24},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Li2017d,
author = {Li, Ning and McGregor, Glenn Russell},
doi = {10.1002/hyp.11184},
issn = {08856087},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {2261--2276},
title = {{Linking interannual river flow river variability across New Zealand to the Southern Annular Mode, 1979-2011}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/hyp.11184},
volume = {31},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Li2017,
abstract = {Climate models typically predict an increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall with anthropogenic warming. Correcting for precipitation biases in the tropical western Pacific using an emergent constraint methodology, however, reduces the magnitude of these increases by ∼50{\%}.},
author = {Li, Gen and Xie, Shang Ping and He, Chao and Chen, Zesheng},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3387},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {10},
pages = {708--712},
title = {{Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall}},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Li2015e,
abstract = {The Asian monsoon‐ENSO (El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation) relationship in the 20th and 21st centuries is examined using observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. CMIP5 models can simulate the ENSO‐monsoon spatial structure reasonably well when using the multimodel mean. Running correlations show prominent decadal variability of the ENSO‐monsoon relationship in observations. The modeled ENSO‐monsoon relation shows large intermodel spread, indicating large variations across the model ensemble. The anthropogenically forced component of ENSO‐monsoon relationship is separated from the naturally varying component based on a signal‐to‐noise maximizing empirical orthogonal function analysis using global sea surface temperature (SST). Results show that natural variability plays a dominant role in the varied ENSO‐monsoon relationship during the 20th century. In the 21st century, the forced component is dominated by enhanced monsoon rainfall associated with SST warming, which may contribute to a slightly weakened ENSO‐monsoon relation in the future.},
author = {Li, Xiaoqiong and Ting, Mingfang},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL063557},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3502--3512},
title = {{Recent and future changes in the Asian monsoon-ENSO relationship: Natural or forced?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL063557},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{lfl12,
author = {Li, J and Feng, J and Li, Y},
doi = {10.1002/joc.2328},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
pages = {995--1005},
title = {{A possible cause of decreasing summer rainfall in northeast Australia}},
volume = {32},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Li2017h,
author = {Li, Yi and Ding, Yihui and Li, Weijing},
doi = {10.1007/s00376-017-6247-7},
issn = {0256-1530},
journal = {Advances in Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {833--846},
title = {{Interdecadal variability of the Afro-Asian summer monsoon system}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00376-017-6247-7},
volume = {34},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lian2018,
abstract = {The ratio of plant transpiration to total terrestrial evapotranspiration (T/ET) captures the role of vegetation in surface–atmosphere interactions. However, its magnitude remains highly uncertain at the global scale. Here we apply an emergent constraint approach that integrates CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) with 33 field T/ET measurements to re-estimate the global T/ET value. Our observational constraint strongly increases the original ESM estimates (0.41 ± 0.11) and greatly alleviates intermodel discrepancy, which leads to a new global T/ET estimate of 0.62 ± 0.06. For all the ESMs, the leaf area index is identified as the primary driver of spatial variations of T/ET, but to correct its bias generates a larger T/ET underestimation than the original ESM output. We present evidence that the ESM underestimation of T/ET is, instead, attributable to inaccurate representation of canopy light use, interception loss and root water uptake processes in the ESMs. These processes should be prioritized to reduce model uncertainties in the global hydrological cycle.},
annote = {ESM underestimate plant transpiration/total ET due to inaccurate representation of canopy light use, interception loss and root water uptake processes},
author = {Lian, Xu and Piao, Shilong and Huntingford, Chris and Li, Yue and Zeng, Zhenzhong and Wang, Xuhui and Ciais, Philippe and McVicar, Tim R and Peng, Shushi and Ottl{\'{e}}, Catherine and Yang, Hui and Yang, Yuting and Zhang, Yongqiang and Wang, Tao},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0207-9},
issn = {1758-6798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {640--646},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Partitioning global land evapotranspiration using CMIP5 models constrained by observations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0207-9},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Liang2020a,
abstract = {The Amazon river basin receives {\~{}}2000 mm of precipitation annually and contributes {\~{}}17{\%} of global river freshwater input to the oceans; its hydroclimatic variations can exert profound impacts on the marine ecosystem in the Amazon plume region (APR) and have potential far-reaching influences on hydroclimate over the tropical Atlantic. Here, we show that an amplified seasonal cycle of Amazonia precipitation, represented by the annual difference between maximum and minimum values, during the period 1979–2018, leads to enhanced seasonalities in both Amazon river discharge and APR ocean salinity. An atmospheric moisture budget analysis shows that these enhanced seasonal cycles are associated with similar amplifications in the atmospheric vertical and horizontal moisture advections. Hierarchical sensitivity experiments using global climate models quantify the relationships of these enhanced seasonalities. The results suggest that an intensified hydroclimatological cycle may develop in the Amazonia atmosphere-land-ocean coupled system, favouring more extreme terrestrial and marine conditions.},
author = {Liang, Yu Chiao and Lo, Min Hui and Lan, Chia Wei and Seo, Hyodae and Ummenhofer, Caroline C. and Yeager, Stephen and Wu, Ren Jie and Steffen, John D.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-18187-0},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {4390},
pmid = {32873800},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Amplified seasonal cycle in hydroclimate over the Amazon river basin and its plume region}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18187-0},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Liebmann2014,
author = {Liebmann, Brant and Hoerling, Martin P. and Funk, Chris and Blad{\'{e}}, Ileana and Dole, Randall M. and Allured, Dave and Quan, Xiaowei and Pegion, Philip and Eischeid, Jon K.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00714.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
pages = {8630--8645},
title = {{Understanding Recent Eastern Horn of Africa Rainfall Variability and Change}},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Lim2016,
author = {Lim, Eun-Pa and Hendon, Harry H. and Arblaster, Julie M. and Delage, Francois and Nguyen, Hanh and Min, Seung-Ki and Wheeler, Matthew C.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL069453},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {7160--7167},
title = {{The impact of the Southern Annular Mode on future changes in Southern Hemisphere rainfall}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL069453},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lin2018JGR,
abstract = {Abstract The sensitivity of precipitation extremes (PE) (i.e., the change in PE per degree of change in global mean surface temperature) to aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings is examined using the 20th-century historical multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5. We find a robustly larger sensitivity of PE to aerosols than GHGs across all available models. The aerosol/GHG-induced sensitivity ratios for globe-averaged monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day) and maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) in the MME are 1.6 and 1.4, respectively. Over land, the corresponding ratios for RX5day and RX1day are 2.3 and 1.8, respectively. In particular, the aerosol forcing leads to several times greater sensitivity than GHG forcing in west Africa, eastern China, South and Southeast Asia, northwestern South America, and Eastern Europe. The atmospheric energy balance, dynamical adjustment, and vertical structure of forcing, all contribute to the difference in the PE sensitivity to the two forcings. It is shown that the fast response primarily contributes to the greater-than-one aerosol-to-GHG ratios of the PE sensitivities, as for the mean precipitation. This is because of a stronger rainfall suppression effect induced by the GHG atmospheric forcing. We also find that the aerosol-to-GHG ratios of the PE sensitivities depend on the defined extreme precipitation indices. The aerosol-to-GHG sensitivity ratio is larger for more loosely defined PE, and it gradually converges to one for more severely defined PE. Our results further highlight the importance of considering the anthropogenic aerosol reduction in projecting the change in PE.},
author = {Lin, Lei and Wang, Zhili and Xu, Yangyang and Fu, Qiang and Dong, Wenjie},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD028821},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {8062--8073},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Larger Sensitivity of Precipitation Extremes to Aerosol Than Greenhouse Gas Forcing in CMIP5 Models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018JD028821},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lin2014,
abstract = {With the motivation to identify whether a reasonably simulated atmospheric circulation would necessarily lead to a successful reproduction of monsoon precipitation, the performances of five sets of reanalysis data {\{}[{\}}NCEP-U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (AMIP-II) reanalysis (NCEP-2), 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)] in reproducing the climatology, interannual variation, and long-term trend of global monsoon (GM) precipitation are comprehensively evaluated. To better understand the variability and long-term trend of GM precipitation, the authors also examined the major components of water budget, including evaporation, water vapor convergence, and the change in local column water vapor, based on the five reanalysis datasets. Results show that all five reanalysis datasets reasonably reproduce the climatology of GM precipitation. ERA-Interim (NCEP-2) shows the highest (lowest) skill among the five datasets. The observed GM precipitation shows an increasing tendency during 1979-2011 along with a strong interannual variability, which is reasonably reproduced by five reanalysis datasets. The observed increasing trend of GM precipitation is dominated by contributions from the Asian, North American, Southern African, and Australian monsoons. All five datasets fail in reproducing the increasing tendency of the North African monsoon precipitation. The wind convergence term in the water budget equation dominates the GM precipitation variation, indicating a consistency between the GM precipitation and the seasonal change of prevailing wind.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Lin, Renping and Zhou, Tianjun and Qian, Yun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00215.1},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {0894-8755; 1520-0442},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {3},
pages = {1271--1289},
pmid = {25246403},
title = {{Evaluation of global monsoon precipitation changes based on five reanalysis datasets}},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Linsbauer2016,
abstract = {Surface digital elevation models (DEMs) and slope-related estimates of glacier thickness enable modelling of glacier-bed topographies over large ice-covered areas. Due to the erosive power of glaciers, such bed topographies can contain numerous overdeepenings, which when exposed following glacier retreat may fill with water and form new lakes. In this study, the bed overdeepenings for ∼28000 glaciers (40 775km2) of the Himalaya-Karakoram region are modelled using GlabTop2 (Glacier Bed Topography model version 2), in which ice thickness is inferred from surface slope by parameterizing basal shear stress as a function of elevation range for each glacier. The modelled ice thicknesses are uncertain (±30{\%}), but spatial patterns of ice thickness and bed elevation primarily depend on surface slopes as derived from the DEM and, hence, are more robust. About 16 000 overdeepenings larger than 104m2 were detected in the modelled glacier beds, covering an area of ∼2200 km2 and having a volume of ∼120 km3 (3-4{\%} of present-day glacier volume). About 5000 of these overdeepenings (1800 km2) have a volume larger than 106m3. The results presented here are useful for anticipating landscape evolution and potential future lake formation with associated opportunities (tourism, hydropower) and risks (lake outbursts).},
author = {Linsbauer, A. and Frey, H. and Haeberli, W. and Machguth, H. and Azam, M. F. and Allen, S.},
doi = {10.3189/2016AoG71A627},
issn = {02603055},
journal = {Annals of Glaciology},
keywords = {Glacial geomorphology,Glaciological model experiments,Processes and landforms of glacial erosion},
number = {71},
pages = {119--130},
publisher = {International Glaciology Society},
title = {{Modelling glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes for the glaciers in the Himalaya–Karakoram region}},
volume = {57},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Little2019GRL,
abstract = {Abstract The role of atmospheric rivers (ARs) for extreme ablation and snowfall is examined at Brewster Glacier in the Southern Alps, the site of the longest glacier mass balance record in New Zealand. By global standards, New Zealand is strongly impacted by ARs. Here, it is shown for the first time (in New Zealand) that ARs strongly contribute to extreme snowfall and ablation, and thus mass balance overall. Vertically integrated water vapour transport (IVT) exceeds 1600 (800) kg m‐1 s‐1 for the largest ablation (snowfall) events, marking these as very strong ARs. The proximity to the freezing threshold during extreme snowfall events indicates the sensitivity of mass balance to temperature variation. Importantly, similarly high rates of IVT during some extreme ablation and snowfall events also occur outside of conventional AR spatial structures. This finding indicates that AR‐detection algorithms may substantially underestimate the importance of extreme IVT, for New Zealand and elsewhere. Plain Language Summary New Zealand glaciers are very sensitive to climate variation and change ‐ yet relatively little is known about the individual weather patterns that cause extreme ablation and accumulation events. Similarly, whilst the importance of atmospheric rivers (ARs) for extreme weather events in New Zealand is generally recognised, their importance for glacier mass balance has not been studied before. ARs are long, narrow corridors of very high atmospheric water vapour transport, with volumetric flow rates equivalent to the world's largest rivers. Here we show (for the first time) that ARs do play a key role for glacier mass balance in New Zealand. Importantly, we also show that some common methods for identifying ARs do not capture all of the most extreme ablation and melt events ‐ even though they are driven by water vapour transport rates equivalent to conventionally‐defined ARs. As such, past studies have likely underestimated the importance of AR‐type events, both in New Zealand and elsewhere.},
annote = {Glacier mass balance is found to be sensitive to atmospheric rivers and other high moisture transport events in New Zealand with the liklihood of extreme ablation or snowfall events highly sensitive to air temperature.},
author = {Little, K. and Kingston, D. G. and Cullen, N. J. and Gibson, P. B.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081669},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Atmospheric rivers,glacier mass balance},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2761--2771},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The Role of Atmospheric Rivers for Extreme Ablation and Snowfall Events in the Southern Alps of New Zealand}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL081669 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081669},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Liu2018d,
abstract = {Abstract. Much research is needed regarding the two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 and 2°C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity change and associated precipitation change under both warming targets are explored in this study. The multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5 and 2°C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR) method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective at tightening the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and Central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, reduced precipitation appears over 30–40°N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low levels and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5 and 2°C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference between 1.5 and 2°C, but a pronounced moisture increase during extra 0.5°C leads to enhanced EASM precipitation over large areas in East Asia at 2°C warming.},
author = {Liu, Jiawei and Xu, Haiming and Deng, Jiechun},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-427-2018},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {427--439},
title = {{Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/427/2018/},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Liu2017c,
abstract = {Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection.},
author = {Liu, Wei and Xie, Shang-Ping and Liu, Zhengyu and Zhu, Jiang},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1601666},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {e1601666},
title = {{Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1601666},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Liu2009a,
abstract = {We conducted the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the B{\o}lling-Aller{\o}d (BA) warming. Our model reproduces several major features of the deglacial climate evolution, suggesting a good agreement in climate sensitivity between the model and observations. In particular, our model simulates the abrupt BA warming as a transient response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden termination of freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic before the BA. In contrast to previous mechanisms that invoke AMOC multiple equilibrium and Southern Hemisphere climate forcing, we propose that the BA transition is caused by the superposition of climatic responses to the transient CO(2) forcing, the AMOC recovery from Heinrich Event 1, and an AMOC overshoot.},
author = {Liu, Z. and Otto-Bliesner, B. L. and He, F. and Brady, E. C. and Tomas, R. and Clark, P. U. and Carlson, A. E. and Lynch-Stieglitz, J. and Curry, W. and Brook, E. and Erickson, D. and Jacob, R. and Kutzbach, J. and Cheng, J.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1171041},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jul},
number = {5938},
pages = {310--314},
title = {{Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for B{\o}lling-Aller{\o}d Warming}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1171041},
volume = {325},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Liu2017e,
author = {Liu, Changhai and Ikeda, Kyoko and Rasmussen, Roy and Barlage, Mike and Newman, Andrew J and Prein, Andreas F and Chen, Fei and Chen, Liang and Clark, Martyn and Dai, Aiguo and Dudhia, Jimy and Eidhammer, Trude and Gochis, David and Gutmann, Ethan and Kurkute, Sopan and Li, Yanping and Thompson, Gregory and Yates, David},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3327-9},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Convection-permitting,Pseudo global warming,Regional climate simulation,Water cycle-permitting,pseudo global warming,regional climate,simulation,water cycle},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {71--95},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3327-9},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Liu2013,
abstract = {Global warming is expected to enhance fluxes of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere, causing wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier, with serious implications for water resource management. Defining the wet and dry regions as the upper 30{\%} and lower 70{\%} of the precipitation totals across the tropics (30° S–30° N) each month we combine observations and climate model simulations to understand changes in the wet and dry regions over the period 1850–2100. Observed decreases in precipitation over dry tropical land (1950–2010) are also simulated by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models (−0.3{\%}/decade) with trends projected to continue into the 21st century. Discrepancies between observations and simulations over wet land regions since 1950 exist, relating to decadal fluctuations in El Ni{\~{n}}o southern oscillation, the timing of which is not represented by the coupled simulations. When atmosphere-only simulations are instead driven by observed sea surface temperature they are able to adequately represent this variability over land. Global distributions of precipitation trends are dominated by spatial changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the tendency for already wet regions to become wetter (precipitation increases with warming by 3{\%} K −1 over wet tropical oceans) and the driest regions drier (precipitation decreases of −2{\%} K −1 over dry tropical land regions) emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming.},
author = {Liu, Chunlei and Allan, Richard P.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034002},
isbn = {1748-9326},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {034002,8,available from stacks,cmip5 simulations,erl,iop,mmedia,observations,org trends,s online supplementary data,wet and dry regions},
number = {3},
pages = {034002},
title = {{Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100}},
volume = {8},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Liu2020,
abstract = {Transpiration, the dominant component of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET), directly connects the water, energy and carbon cycles and is typically restricted by soil and atmospheric (for example, the vapour pressure deficit (VPD)) moisture stresses through plant hydraulic processes. These sources of stress are likely to diverge under climate change, with a globally enhanced VPD but more variable and uncertain changes in soil moisture. Here, using a model–data fusion approach, we demonstrate that the common empirical approach used in most Earth system models to evaluate the ET response to soil moisture and VPD, which neglects plant hydraulics, underestimates ET sensitivity to VPD and compensates by overestimating the sensitivity to soil moisture stress. A hydraulic model that describes water transport through the plant better captures ET under high VPD conditions for wide-ranging soil moisture states. These findings highlight the central role of plant hydraulics in regulating the increasing importance of atmospheric moisture stress on biosphere–atmosphere interactions under elevated temperatures.},
author = {Liu, Yanlan and Kumar, Mukesh and Katul, Gabriel G. and Feng, Xue and Konings, Alexandra G.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0781-5},
isbn = {4155802007},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {7},
pages = {691--695},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Plant hydraulics accentuates the effect of atmospheric moisture stress on transpiration}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0781-5},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Liu2019c,
abstract = {Aerosol effects on convective clouds and associated precipitation constitute an important open-ended question in climate research. Previous studies have linked an increase in aerosol concentration to a delay in the onset of rain, invigorated clouds and stronger rain rates. Here, using observational data, we show that the aerosol effect on convective clouds shifts from invigoration to suppression with increasing aerosol optical depth. We explain this shift in trend (using a cloud model) as the result of a competition between two types of microphysical processes: cloud-core-based invigorating processes vs. peripheral suppressive processes. We show that the aerosol optical depth value that marks the shift between invigoration and suppression depends on the environmental thermodynamic conditions. These findings can aid in better parameterizing aerosol effects in climate models for the prediction of climate trends.},
author = {Liu, Huan and Guo, Jianping and Koren, Ilan and Altaratz, Orit and Dagan, Guy and Wang, Yuan and Jiang, Jonathan H. and Zhai, Panmao and Yung, Yuk L.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44284-2},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {7809},
pmid = {31127137},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Non-Monotonic Aerosol Effect on Precipitation in Convective Clouds over Tropical Oceans}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44284-2},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Liu2012a,
abstract = {While the Arctic region has been warming strongly in recent decades, anomalously large snowfall in recent winters has affected large parts of North America, Europe, and east Asia. Here we demonstrate that the decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation that have some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation. This circulation change results in more frequent episodes of blocking patterns that lead to increased cold surges over large parts of northern continents. Moreover, the increase in atmospheric water vapor content in the Arctic region during late autumn and winter driven locally by the reduction of sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources, supporting increased heavy snowfall in Europe during early winter and the northeastern and midwestern United States during winter. We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters.},
author = {Liu, Jiping and Curry, Judith A. and Wang, Huijun and Song, Mirong and Horton, Radley M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1114910109},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {11},
pages = {4074--4079},
pmid = {22371563},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall}},
url = {www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1204582109},
volume = {109},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Liu2018c,
author = {Liu, Fei and Zhao, Tianlang and Wang, Bin and Liu, Jian and Luo, Wubian},
doi = {10.1029/2017JD027391},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {4060--4072},
title = {{Different Global Precipitation Responses to Solar, Volcanic, and Greenhouse Gas Forcings}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2017JD027391},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Liu2019a,
abstract = {Abstract The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) affects ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security of billions of people. In recent decades, ASM strength (as represented by precipitation) has been decreasing, but instrumental measurements span only a short period of time. The initiation and the dynamics of the recent trend are unclear. Here for the first time, we use an ensemble of ten tree‐ring width chronologies from the west‐central margin of ASM to reconstruct detail of ASM variability back to AD 1566. The reconstruction captures weak/strong ASM events and also reflects major locust plagues. Notably, we found an unprecedented 80‐year trend of decreasing ASM strength within the context of the 448‐year reconstruction, which is contrary to what is expected from greenhouse warming. Our coupled climate model shows that increasing anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions over the Northern Hemisphere could be the dominant factor contributing to the ASM decrease. Key Points A 448‐year Asian Summer Monsoon reconstruction that extends back to 1566 AD was developed using an ensemble of ten tree‐ring chronologies from northwest China. The recent 80‐year decreasing trend of the Asian Summer Monsoon was unprecedented over the past 448 years. Coupled climate models showed that the unprecedented decreasing trend was likely due to increasing anthropogenic aerosols.},
author = {Liu, L. and Shawki, D. and Voulgarakis, Apostolos and Kasoar, M. and Samset, B. H. and Myhre, G. and Forster, P. M. and Hodnebrog and Sillmann, J. and Aalbergsj{\o}, S. G. and Boucher, O. and Faluvegi, G. and Iversen, T. and Kirkev{\aa}g, A. and Lamarque, J. F. and Olivi{\'{e}}, D. and Richardson, T. and Shindell, D. and Takemura, T.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0439.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Aerosols,Atmosphere,Climate Energy budget/balance,Precipitation,Radiative forcing},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {4429--4447},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{A PDRMIP Multimodel study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0439.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Liu2016a,
abstract = {Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at di erent latitudes have distinctive e ects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classi ed into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced signi cantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensi cation is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more e cient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker e ects in weakening the o -equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do.},
author = {Liu, Fei and Chai, Jing and Wang, Bin and Liu, Jian and Zhang, Xiao and Wang, Zhiyuan},
doi = {10.1038/srep24331},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Climate change,Palaeoclimate},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {24331},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep24331},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Liu2019,
abstract = {The multi-satellite-retrieved (ESA CCI SM) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System-Noah-simulated (GLDAS-Noah) surface soil moisture (SM) datasets are compared for global drought analysis over a multi-decadal time period (1991–2015). Global drought events and their duration, frequency and severity are assessed on a grid basis with soil moisture anomaly percentage index (SMAPI). The results show that the ESA CCI SM and the GLDAS-Noah based SMAPI values are significantly (p {\textless} 0.05) correlated over most (83{\%}) of the study region, of seasonally dependent. Both datasets show similar global patterns in drought duration, drought frequency and drought severity. The droughts present generally longer duration, higher frequency and more severity in arid and semi-arid regions than humid and sub-humid regions. The ESA CCI SM droughts are relatively higher in frequency and more intense in severity than the GLDAS-Noah SM droughts in many regions of the globe, while the two datasets show considerable differences in drought duration over arid, semi-arid and highly vegetated regions. For long-term trend detection, both datasets show high consistency in spatial pattern of SMAPI, with major significant drying trends in arid and semi-arid regions. Part ({\~{}}20{\%}) trends are confirmed by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation dataset using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The two SM datasets exhibit large disparity in trending drought duration, drought frequency and drought severity. Despite that, both show major significant increasing trends in arid and semi-arid regions. Both soil moisture datasets are capable of identifying extreme drought events reported in southern China, North America, Europe and southern Africa. The ESA CCI SM dataset is more effective in determining the severity and spatial pattern of drought excluding densely vegetated regions, while the GLDAS-Noah dataset is more powerful in detecting drought occurrence, even over densely vegetated regions. Overall, the ESA CCI SM and GLDAS-Noah SM show potential in global drought analysis, yet cautions should be paid to arid and semi-arid regions where drying trends are prevalent and large discrepancy presents between two datasets.},
author = {Liu, Yongwei and Liu, Yuanbo and Wang, Wen},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2018.10.026},
issn = {00344257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {GLDAS-Noah,GPCC,Global droughts,Satellite datasets,Soil moisture},
number = {September 2018},
pages = {1--18},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Inter-comparison of satellite-retrieved and Global Land Data Assimilation System-simulated soil moisture datasets for global drought analysis}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.10.026},
volume = {220},
year = {2019}
}
@article{LIU2020,
abstract = {This research evaluated the ability of different coupled climate models to simulate the historical variability of potential evapotranspiration (PET) for the time period 1979–2017 in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively). Their projected future changes of PET under two emission scenarios for the 21st century were also compared. Results show that PET has an increasing trend of 0.2–0.6 mm d−1/50 yr over most land surfaces and that there are clear regional differences. The future value of PET is higher in the CMIP6 multi-model simulations than in the CMIP5 ones under the same emissions scenario, possibly because CMIP6 models simulate stronger warming for a given forcing or scenario. The contributions of each individual climate driver to future changes in PET were examined and revealed that the surface vapor pressure deficit makes a major contribution to changes in PET. Shortwave radiation increases PET in most terrestrial regions, except for northern Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and Australia; the effect of longwave radiation is the opposite to that of shortwave radiation. The contribution of surface wind speed to PET is small, but results in a slight reduction.},
author = {Liu, Xinlei and Li, Chunxiang and Zhao, Tianbao and Han, Lin},
doi = {10.1080/16742834.2020.1824983},
issn = {23766123},
journal = {Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,CMIP6,Potential evapotranspiration,contribution analysis,simulation evaluation},
number = {6},
pages = {568--575},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Future changes of global potential evapotranspiration simulated from CMIP5 to CMIP6 models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2020.1824983},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Liu2020a,
abstract = {Increasing atmospheric CO2 is both leading to climate change and providing a potential fertilisation effect on plant growth. However, southern Australia has also experienced a significant decline in rainfall over the last 30 years, resulting in increased vegetative water stress. To better understand the dynamics and responses of Australian forest ecosystems to drought and elevated CO2, the magnitude and trend in water use efficiency (WUE) of forests, and their response to drought and elevated CO2 from 1982 to 2014 were analysed, using the best available model estimates constrained by observed fluxes from simulations with fixed and time-varying CO2. The ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET) (WUEe) was used to identify the ecosystem scale WUE, while the ratio of GPP to transpiration (Tr) (WUEc) was used as a measure of canopy scale WUE. WUE increased significantly in northern Australia (p {\textless} 0.001) for woody savannas (WSA), whereas there was a slight decline in the WUE of evergreen broadleaf forests (EBF) in the southeast and southwest of Australia. The lag of WUEc to drought was consistent and relatively short and stable between biomes (≤3 months), but notably varied for WUEe, with a long time-lag (mean of 10 months). The dissimilar responses of WUEe and WUEc to climate change for different geographical areas result from the different proportion of Tr in ET. CO2 fertilization and a wetter climate enhanced WUE in northern Australia, whereas drought offset the CO2 fertilization effect in southern Australia.},
author = {Liu, Ning and Kala, Jatin and Liu, Shirong and Haverd, Vanessa and Dell, Bernard and Smettem, Keith R.J. and Harper, Richard J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jes.2019.11.020},
issn = {10010742},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Sciences},
keywords = {Australia,Carbon sequestration,Elevated CO2,Forest,Water use efficiency,drought},
month = {apr},
pages = {262--274},
title = {{Drought can offset potential water use efficiency of forest ecosystems from rising atmospheric CO2}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1001074219333807},
volume = {90},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Liu2018,
author = {Liu, Ting and Li, Jianping and Li, YanJie and Zhao, Sen and Zheng, Fei and Zheng, Jiayu and Yao, Zhixiong},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3753-3},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {11-12},
pages = {4095--4107},
title = {{Influence of the May Southern annular mode on the South China Sea summer monsoon}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3753-3},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Liu2019e,
abstract = {Recent climate modeling studies point to an increase in tropical cyclone rainfall rates in response to climate warming. These studies indicate that the percentage increase in tropical cyclone rainfall rates often outpaces the increase in saturation specific humidity expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation ({\~{}}7{\%} °C−1). We explore the change in tropical cyclone rainfall rates over all oceans under global warming using a high-resolution climate model with the ability to simulate the entire intensity spectrum of tropical cyclones. Consistent with previous results, we find a robust increase of tropical cyclone rainfall rates. The percentage increase for inner-core tropical cyclone rainfall rates in our model is markedly larger than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. However, when the impact of storm intensity is excluded, the rainfall rate increase shows a much better match with the Clausius-Clapeyron rate, suggesting that the “super Clausius-Clapeyron” scaling of rainfall rates with temperature increase is due to the warming-induced increase of tropical cyclone intensity. The increase of tropical cyclone intensity and environmental water vapor, in combination, explain the tropical cyclone rainfall rate increase under global warming.},
author = {Liu, Maofeng and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Smith, James A. and Knutson, Thomas R.},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-019-0095-3},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {38},
title = {{Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0095-3},
volume = {2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Llopart2018,
abstract = {One of the most important anthropogenic influences on climate is land use change (LUC). In particular, the Amazon (AMZ) basin is a highly vulnerable area to climate change due to substantial modifications of the hydroclimatology of the region expected as a result of LUC. However, both the magnitude of these changes and the physical process underlying this scenario are still uncertain. This work aims to analyze the simulated Amazon deforestation and its impacts on local mean climate. We used the Common Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 coupled with the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South America domain. We performed one simulation with the RegCM4 default land cover map (CTRL) and one simulation under a scenario of deforestation (LUC), i.e., replacing broadleaf evergreen trees with C3grass over the Amazon basin. Both simulations were driven by ERA Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2009. The climate change signal due to AMZ deforestation was evaluated by comparing the climatology of CTRL with LUC. Concerning the temperature, the deforested areas are about 2 °C warmer compared to the CTRL experiment, which contributes to decrease the surface pressure. Higher air temperature is associated with a decrease of the latent heat flux and an increase of the sensible heat flux over the deforested areas. AMZ deforestation induces a dipole pattern response in the precipitation over the region: a reduction over the west (about 7.9{\%}) and an increase over the east (about 8.3{\%}). Analyzing the water balance in the atmospheric column over the AMZ basin, the results show that under the deforestation scenario the land surface processes play an important role and drive the precipitation in the western AMZ; on the other hand, on the east side, the large scale circulation drives the precipitation change signal. Dipole patterns over scenarios of deforestation in the Amazon was also found by other authors, but the precipitation decrease on the west side was never fully explained. Using budget equations, this work highlights the physical processes that control the climate in the Amazon basin under a deforestation scenario.},
author = {Llopart, Marta and Reboita, Michelle and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo and da Rocha, Rosmeri and de Souza, Diego},
doi = {10.3390/w10020149},
isbn = {2073-4441},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {Amazon forest,Deforestation,Energy balance,Land use change,Water balance},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {149},
title = {{Land Use Change over the Amazon Forest and Its Impact on the Local Climate}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/2/149},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Loeb2015CLimDyn,
abstract = {Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHTEQ) and ocean (OHTEQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHTEQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHTEQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHTEQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHTEQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHTEQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds.},
annote = {Climate model biases in cross equatorial energy transports linked with precipitation biases.},
author = {Loeb, Norman G. and Wang, Hailan and Cheng, Anning and Kato, Seiji and Fasullo, John T. and Xu, Kuan Man and Allan, Richard P.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2766-z},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Energy budget,Heat transport,Latent heat,Precipitation,Radiation,Sensible heat},
month = {aug},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3239--3257},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007{\%}2Fs00382-015-2766-z},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lopez2014,
abstract = {Abstract Pattern scaling offers the promise of exploring spatial details of the climate system response to anthropogenic climate forcings without their full simulation by state- of-the-art Global ClimateModels. The circumstances in which pattern scaling methods are capable of delivering on this promise are explored by quantifying its performance in an ide- alized setting. Given a large ensemble that is assumed to sample the full range of variability and provide quantitative decision-relevant information, the soundness of applying the pat- tern scalingmethodology to generate decision relevant climate scenarios is explored. Pattern scaling is not expected to reproduce its target exactly, of course, and its generic limitations have been well documented since it was first proposed. In this work, using as a particular example the quantification of the risk of heat waves in Southern Europe, it is shown that the magnitude of the error in the pattern scaled estimates can be significant enough to dis- qualify the use of this approach in quantitative decision-support. This suggests that future application of pattern scaling in climate science should provide decision makers not just a restatement of the assumptions made, but also evidence that the methodology is adequate for purpose in practice for the case under consideration. 1},
author = {Lopez, Ana and Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-1022-y},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {4},
pages = {555--566},
title = {{Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support}},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Lora2018a,
abstract = {AbstractThis study examines the differences in the moisture budget over North America between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and modern, as simulated by nine models from phase 3 of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The results help elucidate the components and mechanisms of the LGM hydrologic cycle. The models predict substantial increases in winter precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) over the ice-free parts of western North America with respect to modern, primarily due to increases in moisture convergence by the mean flow. In summer, they predict P–E increases from the Great Plains to the southeastern margin of the ice sheet—driven by large decreases in E—that are due to a combination of increased convergence by the mean flow and transient eddies. In both seasons, the LGM–modern changes in P–E are dominated by changes in the circulation, rather than by changes in atmospheric water vapor. Compared to a proxy reconstruction of LGM–modern changes in P, the simulated P responses show mode...},
author = {Lora, Juan M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0544.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric Evaporation,Hydrologic cycle,Ice age,North America,Precipitation},
month = {jun},
number = {17},
pages = {7035--7051},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Components and mechanisms of hydrologic cycle changes over North America at the Last Glacial Maximum}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0544.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Loranty2014,
abstract = {The snow-masking effect of vegetation exerts strong control on albedo in northern high latitude ecosystems. Large-scale changes in the distribution and stature of vegetation in this region will thus have important feedbacks to climate. The snow-albedo feedback is controlled largely by the contrast between snow-covered and snow-free albedo ($\Delta$$\alpha$), which influences predictions of future warming in coupled climate models, despite being poorly constrained at seasonal and century time scales. Here, we compare satellite observations and coupled climate model representations of albedo and tree cover for the boreal and Arctic region. Our analyses reveal consistent declines in albedo with increasing tree cover, occurring south of latitudinal tree line, that are poorly represented in coupled climate models. Observed relationships between albedo and tree cover differ substantially between snow-covered and snow-free periods, and among plant functional type. Tree cover in models varies widely but surprisingly does not correlate well with model albedo. Furthermore, our results demonstrate a relationship between tree cover and snow-albedo feedback that may be used to accurately constrain high latitude albedo feedbacks in coupled climate models under current and future vegetation distributions.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Loranty, Michael M. and Berner, Logan T. and Goetz, Scott J. and Jin, Yufang and Randerson, James T.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.12391},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {3152287038},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Albedo,Arctic,Boreal forest,CMIP5,Climate feedback,Global change,Vegetation cover},
number = {2},
pages = {594--606},
pmid = {24039000},
title = {{Vegetation controls on northern high latitude snow-albedo feedback: Observations and CMIP5 model simulations}},
volume = {20},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Loriaux_2017,
abstract = {AbstractLarge eddy simulations with strong lateral forcing representative of precipitation over the Netherlands are performed to investigate the influence of stability, relative humidity, and moisture convergence on precipitation. Furthermore, a simple climate perturbation is applied to analyze the precipitation response to increasing temperatures. Precipitation is decomposed to distinguish between processes affecting the precipitating area and the precipitation intensity. It is shown that amplification of the moisture convergence and destabilization of the atmosphere both lead to an increase in precipitation, but due to different effects; Atmospheric stability mainly influences the precipitation intensity, while the moisture convergence mainly controls the precipitation area fraction. Extreme precipitation intensities show qualitatively similar sensitivities to atmospheric stability and moisture convergence. Precipitation increases with RH due to an increase in area fraction, despite a decrease in intensity. The precipitation response to the climate perturbation shows a stronger response for the precipitation intensity than the overall precipitation, with no clear dependency of changes in atmospheric stability, moisture convergence and relative humidity.},
annote = {large eddy simulations show stability controls precipitation intensity, moisture convergence controls area fraction and relative humidity increases intensity while slightly decreasing area fraction},
author = {Loriaux, Jessica M. and Lenderink, Geert and Siebesma, A. Pier},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0381.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Dynamics,Extreme events,Forcing,Precipitation},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {955--968},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Large-scale controls on extreme precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2Fjcli-d-16-0381.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Louf2019,
abstract = {Accurately representing the properties and impact of tropical convection in climate models requires an understanding of the relationships between the state of a convective cloud ensemble and the environment it is embedded in. We investigate this relationship using 13 years of radar observations in the tropics. Specifically, we focus on convective cell number and size and quantify their relationship to atmospheric stability, midtropospheric vertical motion and humidity. We find several key convective states embedded in their own unique environments. The most area-averaged rainfall occurs with a moderate number of moderate size convective cell in an environment of high humidity, strong vertical ascent, and moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN). The strongest rainfall intensities are found with few large cells. Those exist in a dry and subsiding environment with both high CAPE and CIN. Large numbers of convective cells are associated with small CAPE and CIN, weak ascent, and a moist midtroposphere.},
author = {Louf, Valentin and Jakob, Christian and Protat, Alain and Bergemann, Martin and Narsey, Sugata},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083964},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {large scale,radar,tropics},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {9203--9212},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The Relationship of Cloud Number and Size With Their Large-Scale Environment in Deep Tropical Convection}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083964},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lowry2019a,
abstract = {Future hydroclimate change is expected to generally follow a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier (WWDD) pattern, yet key uncertainties remain regionally and over land. It has been previously hypothesized that lake levels of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) could map a reverse analog to future hydroclimate changes due to reduction of CO2 levels at this time. Potential complications to this approach include, however, the confounding effects of factors such as the Laurentide Ice Sheet and lake evaporation changes. Using the ensemble output of six coupled climate models, lake energy and water balance models, an atmospheric moisture budget analysis, and additional CO2 sensitivity experiments, we assess the effectiveness of the LGM as a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes for a transect from the drylands of North America to southern South America. The model ensemble successfully simulates the general pattern of lower tropical lake levels and higher extratropical lake levels at LGM, matching 82{\%} of the lake proxy records. The greatest model-data mismatch occurs in tropical and extratropical South America, potentially as a result of underestimated changes in temperature and surface evaporation. Thermodynamic processes of the mean circulation best explain the direction of lake changes observed in the proxy record, particularly in the tropics and Pacific coasts of the extratropics, and produce a WWDD pattern. CO2 forcing alone cannot account for LGM lake level changes, however, as the enhanced cooling from the Laurentide ice sheet appears necessary to generate LGM dry anomalies in the tropics and to deepen anomalies in the extratropics. LGM performance as a reverse analog is regionally dependent as anti-correlation between LGM and future P − E is not uniformly observed across the study domain.},
author = {Lowry, Daniel P and Morrill, Carrie},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4385-y},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {7},
pages = {4407--4427},
title = {{Is the Last Glacial Maximum a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes in the Americas?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4385-y},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lu2007,
abstract = {[2] The Hadley cell (HC) plays a pivotal role in the earth's climate by transporting energy and angular momentum poleward and by organizing the three dimensional tropical atmospheric circulation. The locations of the large-scale subtropical dry zones and the major tropical/ ... $\backslash$n},
author = {Lu, Jian and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Reichler, Thomas},
doi = {10.1029/2006GL028443},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {L06805},
title = {{Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2006GL028443},
volume = {34},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Lu2021,
abstract = {Large-scale photovoltaic solar farms envisioned over the Sahara desert can meet the world's energy demand while increasing regional rainfall and vegetation cover. However, adverse remote effects resulting from atmospheric teleconnections could offset such regional benefits. We use state-of-the-art Earth-system model simulations to evaluate the global impacts of Sahara solar farms. Our results indicate a redistribution of precipitation causing Amazon droughts and forest degradation, and global surface temperature rise and sea-ice loss, particularly over the Arctic due to increased polarward heat transport, and northward expansion of deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere. We also identify reduced El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Ni{\~{n}}o variability and enhanced tropical cyclone activity. Comparison to proxy inferences for a wetter and greener Sahara ∼6,000 years ago appears to substantiate these results. Understanding these responses within the Earth system provides insights into the site selection concerning any massive deployment of solar energy in the world's deserts.},
annote = {Large scale solar farms over the Sahara could alter precipitation distributions globally},
author = {Lu, Zhengyao and Zhang, Qiong and Miller, Paul A. and Zhang, Qiang and Berntell, Ellen and Smith, Benjamin},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL090789},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {e2020GL090789},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Impacts of Large-Scale Sahara Solar Farms on Global Climate and Vegetation Cover}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090789},
volume = {48},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Lu2017,
abstract = {Climate warming causes changes in permafrost distribution, which affects the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle and carbon flux in cold regions. In this study, the Surface Frost Number model was applied to examine permafrost distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) under the four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The Kappa statistic was used to evaluate model results by comparing simulations of baseline permafrost distribution (1981–2010) with the existing frozen soil maps. The comparison shows that the Surface Frost Number model is suitable for simulating the general characteristics of permafrost distribution on the QTP. Simulated results suggest that areas of permafrost degradation would be the smallest in the near-term (2011‒2040) with the rates of 17.17{\%}, 18.07{\%}, 12.95{\%} and 15.66{\%} under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. The rate of permafrost degradation would be faster in the mid-term (2041‒2070), especially under the RCP8.5 scenario (about 41.42{\%}). Areas of permafrost degradation would be the largest in the long-term (2071‒2099) relative to baseline conditions, with a modelled 64.31{\%} decrease in permafrost distribution using the RCP8.5 scenario. Our results would help the decision‒making for engineering construction program on the QTP, and support local units in their efforts to adapt climate change.},
author = {Lu, Qing and Zhao, Dongsheng and Wu, Shaohong},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-04140-7},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {3845},
title = {{Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04140-7},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Luijendijk2020,
abstract = {The flow of fresh groundwater may provide substantial inputs of nutrients and solutes to the oceans. However, the extent to which hydrogeological parameters control groundwater flow to the world's oceans has not been quantified systematically. Here we present a spatially resolved global model of coastal groundwater discharge to show that the contribution of fresh groundwater accounts for {\~{}}0.6{\%} (0.004{\%}–1.3{\%}) of the total freshwater input and {\~{}}2{\%} (0.003{\%}–7.7{\%}) of the solute input for carbon, nitrogen, silica and strontium. However, the coastal discharge of fresh groundwater and nutrients displays a high spatial variability and for an estimated 26{\%} (0.4{\%}–39{\%}) of the world's estuaries, 17{\%} (0.3{\%}–31{\%}) of the salt marshes and 14{\%} (0.1–26{\%}) of the coral reefs, the flux of terrestrial groundwater exceeds 25{\%} of the river flux and poses a risk for pollution and eutrophication.},
author = {Luijendijk, Elco and Gleeson, Tom and Moosdorf, Nils},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15064-8},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {FGD,Figure 8.1,groundwater,rpallan,section 1},
number = {1},
pages = {1260},
title = {{Fresh groundwater discharge insignificant for the world's oceans but important for coastal ecosystems}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15064-8},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lund2019,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are expected to change drastically over the coming decades, with potentially significant climate implications. Using the most recent generation of harmonized emission scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as input to a global chemistry transport and radiative transfer model, we provide estimates of the projected future global and regional burdens and radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols under three contrasting pathways for air pollution levels: SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. We find that the broader range of future air pollution emission trajectories spanned by the SSPs compared to previous scenarios translates into total aerosol forcing estimates in 2100 relative to 1750 ranging from {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}−0.04{\textless}/span{\textgreater} in SSP1-1.9 to {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}−0.51{\textless}/span{\textgreater}{\&}thinsp;W{\&}thinsp;m{\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}{\textless}sup{\textgreater}−2{\textless}/sup{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater} in SSP3-7.0. Compared to our 1750–2015 estimate of {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}−0.55{\textless}/span{\textgreater}{\&}thinsp;W{\&}thinsp;m{\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}{\textless}sup{\textgreater}−2{\textless}/sup{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}, this shows that, depending on the success of air pollution policies and socioeconomic development over the coming decades, aerosol radiative forcing may weaken by nearly 95{\&}thinsp;{\%} or remain close to the preindustrial to present-day level. In all three scenarios there is a positive forcing in 2100 relative to 2015, from 0.51 in SSP1-1.9 to 0.04{\&}thinsp;W{\&}thinsp;m{\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}{\textless}sup{\textgreater}−2{\textless}/sup{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater} in SSP3-7.0. Results also demonstrate significant differences across regions and scenarios, especially in South Asia and Africa. While rapid weakening of the negative aerosol forcing following effective air quality policies will unmask more of the greenhouse-gas-induced global warming, slow progress on mitigating air pollution will significantly enhance the atmospheric aerosol levels and risk to human health in these regions. In either case, the resulting impacts on regional and global climate can be significant.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Lund, Marianne T. and Myhre, Gunnar and Samset, Bj{\o}rn H.},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019},
issn = {1680-7316},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
language = {English},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {13827--13839},
title = {{Anthropogenic aerosol forcing under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways}},
volume = {19},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Luo2019,
abstract = {In this paper, an extended nonlinear multiscale interaction model of blocking events in the equivalent barotropic atmosphere is used to investigate the effect of a slowly varying zonal wind in the meridional direction on dipole blocking that is regarded as a nonlinear Rossby wave packet. It is shown that the meridional gradient of potential vorticity (PVy =∂PV/∂y) prior to the blocking onset, which is related to the background zonal wind and its nonuniform meridional shear, can significantly affect the lifetime, intensity, and north–south asymmetry of dipole blocking, while the blocking dipole itself is driven by preexisting incident synoptic-scale eddies. The magnitude of the background PVy determines the energy dispersion and nonlinearity of blocking. It is revealed that a small background PVy is a prerequisite for strong and long-lived eddy-driven blocking that behaves as a persistent meandering westerly jet stream, while the blocking establishment further reduces the PVy within the blocking region, resulting in a positive feedback between blocking and PVy. When the core of the background westerly jet shifts from higher to lower latitudes, the blocking shows a northwest–southeast-oriented dipole with a strong anticyclonic anomaly to the northwest and a weak cyclonic anomaly to the southeast as its northern pole moves westward more rapidly and has weaker energy dispersion and stronger nonlinearity than its southern pole because of the smaller PVy in higher latitudes. The opposite is true when the background jet shifts toward higher latitudes. The asymmetry of dipole blocking vanishes when the background jet shows a symmetric double-peak structure. Thus, a small prior PVy is a favorable precursor for the occurrence of long-lived and large-amplitude blocking.},
author = {Luo, Dehai and Zhang, Wenqi and Zhong, Linhao and Dai, Aiguo},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-18-0324.1},
issn = {15200469},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
number = {8},
pages = {2399--2427},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{A nonlinear theory of atmospheric blocking: A potential vorticity gradient view}},
volume = {76},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Luong2017,
author = {Luong, Thang M. and Castro, Christopher L. and Chang, Hsin-I and Lahmers, Timothy and Adams, David K. and Ochoa-Moya, Carlos A.},
doi = {10.1175/jamc-d-16-0358.1},
issn = {1558-8424},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
number = {9},
pages = {2509--2529},
title = {{The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events}},
volume = {56},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lutz2014,
abstract = {Rivers originating in the high mountains of Asia are among the most meltwater-dependent river systems on Earth, yet large human populations depend on their resources downstream1 . Across High Asia's river basins, there is large variation in the contribution of glacier and snow melt to total runoff2 , which is poorlyquantified.Thelack ofunderstandingofthehydrological regimes of High Asia's rivers is one of the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change3 . Here we use a large-scale, high-resolution cryospheric–hydrological model to quantify the upstream hydrological regimes of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween and Mekong rivers. Subsequently, we analyse the impacts of climate change on future water availability in these basins using the latest climate model ensemble. Despite large differences in runoff composition and regimes between basins and between tributaries within basins, we project an increase in runoff at least until 2050 caused primarily by an increase in precipitation in the upper Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween and Mekong basins and from accelerated melt in the upper Indus Basin. These findings have immediate consequences for climate change policies where a transition towards coping with intra-annual shifts in water availability is desirable},
author = {Lutz, A. F. and Immerzeel, W. W. and Shrestha, A. B. and Bierkens, M. F.P.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2237},
isbn = {1758-678X$\backslash$r1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Climate and Earth system ling,Hydrology,Water resources,change impacts},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {587--592},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2237},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Lyon2012a,
abstract = {The successive failure of the East African short rains (typically October-December) and subsequent long rains (March-May) in 2010-11 plunged much of the region into severe drought, impacting millions of people and triggering a humanitarian crisis. While poor short rains in 2010 were generally anticipated given linkages with La Ni{\~{n}}a, the subsequent long rains do not exhibit similar predictability. Here we show the long rains failure in boreal spring of 2011 is consistent with a recurrent large-scale precipitation pattern that followed their abrupt decline around 1999. Using observations and climate model simulations, we show the abrupt decline in long rains precipitation is linked to similarly abrupt changes in sea surface temperatures, predominately in the tropical Pacific basin. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.},
author = {Lyon, Bradfield and Dewitt, David G.},
doi = {10.1029/2011GL050337},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
pages = {1--5},
title = {{A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains}},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Lyon2014,
abstract = {This paper provides a review of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) conditions that are associated with meteorological drought on the seasonal time scale in the Greater Horn of Africa (the region 10°S–15°N, 30°–52°E). New findings regarding a post-1998 increase in drought frequency during the March–May (MAM) “long rains” are also reported. The period 1950–2010 is emphasized, although rainfall and SST data from 1901–2010 are used to place the recent long rains decline in a multidecadal context. For the latter case, climate model simulations and isolated basin SST experiments are also utilized.},
author = {Lyon, Bradfield},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00459.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Africa,Decadal variability,Drought,Seasonal variability},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {7953--7975},
title = {{Seasonal Drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and Its Recent Increase during the March–May Long Rains}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00459.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Ma2018,
abstract = {This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributin...},
author = {Ma, Jian and Chadwick, Robin and Seo, Kyong-Hwan and Dong, Changming and Huang, Gang and Foltz, Gregory R. and Jiang, Jonathan H.},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-earth-082517-010102},
isbn = {978-0-8243-2046-1},
issn = {0084-6597},
journal = {Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {549--580},
publisher = {Annual Reviews},
title = {{Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle}},
url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-earth-082517-010102},
volume = {46},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ma2012,
abstract = {The annual-mean tropospheric circulation change in global warming is studied by comparing the response of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) to a spatial-uniform sea surface temperature (SST) increase (SUSI) with the response of a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM to increased greenhouse gas concentrations following the A1B scenario. In both simulations, tropospheric warming follows the moist adiabat in the tropics, and static stability increases globally in response to SST warming. A diagnostic framework is developed based on a linear baroclinic model (LBM) of the atmosphere. The mean advection of stratification change (MASC) by climatological vertical motion, often neglected in interannual variability, is an important thermodynamic term for global warming. Once MASC effect is included, LBM shows skills in reproducing GCM results by prescribing latent heating diagnosed from the GCMs.},
author = {Ma, Jian and Xie, Shang-Ping and Kosaka, Yu},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00048.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Atmospheric circulation,Climate change,Climate models,Climate prediction,Climate sensitivity},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2979--2994},
title = {{Mechanisms for Tropical Tropospheric Circulation Change in Response to Global Warming}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00048.1},
volume = {25},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Ma2017,
author = {Ma, Shuangmei and Zhou, Tianjun and Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} A. and Polson, Debbie and Dai, Aiguo and Stott, Peter A. and von Storch, Hans and Qian, Yun and Burke, Claire and Wu, Peili and Zou, Liwei and Ciavarella, Andrew},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0311.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1381--1396},
title = {{Detectable Anthropogenic Shift toward Heavy Precipitation over Eastern China}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0311.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{MacDonald2016,
abstract = {Increasing groundwater abstraction in the Indo-Gangetic Basin poses a threat to groundwater supplies. In situ observations reveal that sustainable groundwater in much of the region is limited more by contamination than depletion.},
author = {MacDonald, A. M. and Bonsor, H. C. and Ahmed, K. M. and Burgess, W. G. and Basharat, M. and Calow, R. C. and Dixit, A. and Foster, S. S. D. and Gopal, K. and Lapworth, D. J. and Lark, R. M. and Moench, M. and Mukherjee, A. and Rao, M. S. and Shamsudduha, M. and Smith, L. and Taylor, R. G. and Tucker, J. and van Steenbergen, F. and Yadav, S. K.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2791},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {762--766},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Groundwater quality and depletion in the Indo-Gangetic Basin mapped from in situ observations}},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{MacIntosh2016,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2016. The Authors.The precipitation response to radiative forcing (RF) can be decomposed into a fast precipitation response (FPR), which depends on the atmospheric component of RF, and a slow response, which depends on surface temperature change. We present the first detailed climate model study of the FPR due to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes. The FPR depends strongly on the altitude of ozone change. Increases below about 3 km cause a positive FPR; increases above cause a negative FPR. The FPR due to stratospheric ozone change is, per unit RF, about 3 times larger than that due to tropospheric ozone. As historical ozone trends in the troposphere and stratosphere are opposite in sign, so too are the FPRs. Simple climate model calculations of the time-dependent total (fast and slow) precipitation change, indicate that ozone's contribution to precipitation change in 2011, compared to 1765, could exceed 50{\%} of that due to CO2 change.},
annote = {Substantial influence of ozone radiative forcing on global precipitation response mainly because low-altitude ozone increases increases atmosphereic LW cooling. This tends to produce a rapid adjustment that increases precipitation which adds to the slow precipitation increase in response to resulting warming from radiative forcing},
author = {MacIntosh, C. R. and Allan, R. P. and Baker, L. H. and Bellouin, N. and Collins, W. and Mousavi, Z. and Shine, K. P.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL067231},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = { change,stratospheric ozone,tropospheric ozone},
number = {3},
pages = {1263--1271},
title = {{Contrasting fast precipitation responses to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone forcing}},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2{\&}SrcAuth=ORCID{\&}SrcApp=OrcidOrg{\&}DestLinkType=FullRecord{\&}DestApp=WOS{\_}CPL{\&}KeyUT=WOS:000372056600040{\&}KeyUID=WOS:000372056600040},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Mackintosh2017a,
abstract = {Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.},
author = {Mackintosh, Andrew N. and Anderson, Brian M. and Lorrey, Andrew M. and Renwick, James A. and Frei, Prisco and Dean, Sam M.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms14202},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {14202},
title = {{Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14202},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Madhura2014,
abstract = {The climate of the Western-Himalayan (WH) region is sensitively dependent on precipitation during the winter and early spring months (December-to-April, DJFMA) produced largely by synoptic weather-systems known as “Western Disturbances” (WD), which originate from the Mediterranean region and propagate eastward as troughs and cyclonic lows embedded in the sub-tropical westerlies. While the WH region has witnessed a significant rise in surface temperatures since the post-1950s, there are no major trends in the DJFMA seasonal precipitation. Past studies, based on station observations from the WH, have reported a significant increase in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in recent decades. Here, we have analyzed multi-source climate datasets to understand the increasing frequency of heavy precipitation events over WH. Our analysis suggests that pronounced warming trends over the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades, arising due to the elevation dependency of the climatic warming signal, have favored enhancement of meridional temperature gradients at middle and upper-tropospheric levels over the sub-tropics and mid-latitudes. The present findings indicate that the observed pattern of mid-tropospheric warming trend in recent decades over west-central Asia has led to increased baroclinic instability of the mean westerly winds, thereby favoring increased variability of WDs and higher propensity of heavy precipitation events over the WH.},
author = {Madhura, R. K. and Krishnan, R. and Revadekar, J. V. and Mujumdar, M. and Goswami, B. N.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2166-9},
isbn = {0038201421669},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate change,Precipitation extremes,Tibetan Plateau,Western Himalayas,Western disturbances},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1157--1168},
title = {{Changes in western disturbances over the Western Himalayas in a warming environment}},
volume = {44},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Magnin2020,
abstract = {De-glaciating high mountain areas result in new landscapes of bedrock and debris where permafrost can degrade, persist or even newly form in cases, and of new lakes in glacier bed overdeepenings (GBOs) becoming ice-free. These landscapes with new lakes in close neighborhood to over-steepened and perennially frozen slopes are prone to chain reaction processes (e.g. rock-ice avalanches into lakes triggering impact waves, dam breach or overtopping, and debris flows) with potentially far-reaching run-out distances causing valley floors devastation. The frequency, magnitude and zonation of hazards are shifting, requiring integrative approaches combining comprehensive information about landscape evolution and related processes to support stakeholders in their adaptation strategies. In this study, we intend to setup an essential baseline for such an integrative approach in the Mont Blanc massif (MBM), which is a typical high-mountain range affected by de-glaciation processes. We first (i) predict and (ii) detect potential GBOs by combining the GlabTop model with a visual analysis based on morphological indications of glacier flow through over-deepened bed parts. We then (iii) determine the level of confidence concerning the resulting information, and (iv) estimate the approximate time range under which potential lakes could form. The location of the predicted GBOs and the shape of glacier beds are evaluated against currently forming water bodies at retreating glacier snouts, and seismic and ice penetrating radar measurements on the Argenti{\`{e}}re glacier. This comparison shows that the location of predicted GBOs is quite robust whereas their morphometric characteristics (depth, volume) are highly uncertain and tend to be underestimated. In total, 48/80 of the predicted or detected GBOs have a high level of confidence. In addition to five recently formed water bodies at glacier snouts, one of the high confidence GBOs (Tal{\`{e}}fre glacier) which is also the most voluminous one could form imminently (during coming years), if not partially or totally drained through deeply incised gorges at the rock threshold. Twelve other lakes could form within the first half of the century under a constant or accelerated scenario of continued glacier retreat. Some of them are located below high and permanently frozen rock walls prone to destabilization and high-energy mass movements, hinting at possible hot spots in terms of hazards in the coming decades, where more detailed analysis would be required.},
author = {Magnin, F. and Haeberli, W. and Linsbauer, A. and Deline, P. and Ravanel, L.},
doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106913},
issn = {0169555X},
journal = {Geomorphology},
keywords = {De-glaciating landscapes,Glacier-bed overdeepenings,High mountains,Potential future lakes},
month = {feb},
pages = {106913},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Estimating glacier-bed overdeepenings as possible sites of future lakes in the de-glaciating Mont Blanc massif (Western European Alps)}},
volume = {350},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Mahajan2018,
author = {Mahajan, Salil and Evans, Katherine J. and Branstetter, Marcia L. and Tang, Qi},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD028594},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {11392--11409},
title = {{Model Resolution Sensitivity of the Simulation of North Atlantic Oscillation Teleconnections to Precipitation Extremes}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018JD028594},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Maher2018,
abstract = {Abstract Convective parameterizations are widely believed to be essential for realistic simulations of the atmosphere. However, their deficiencies also result in model biases. The role of convection schemes in modern atmospheric models is examined using Selected Process On/Off Klima Intercomparison Experiment simulations without parameterized convection and forced with observed sea surface temperatures. Convection schemes are not required for reasonable climatological precipitation. However, they are essential for reasonable daily precipitation and constraining extreme daily precipitation that otherwise develops. Systematic effects on lapse rate and humidity are likewise modest compared with the intermodel spread. Without parameterized convection Kelvin waves are more realistic. An unexpectedly large moist Southern Hemisphere storm track bias is identified. This storm track bias persists without convection schemes, as does the double Intertropical Convergence Zone and excessive ocean precipitation biases. This suggests that model biases originate from processes other than convection or that convection schemes are missing key processes.},
author = {Maher, Penelope and Vallis, Geoffrey K. and Sherwood, Steven C. and Webb, Mark J. and Sansom, Philip G.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076826},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {SPOOKIE parameterization},
number = {8},
pages = {3728--3736},
title = {{The Impact of Parameterized Convection on Climatological Precipitation in Atmospheric Global Climate Models}},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Maher2018a,
abstract = {Two large ensembles are used to quantify the extent to which internal variability can contribute to long-term changes in El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics. We diagnose changes that are externally forced and distinguish between multi-model simulation results that differ by chance and those that differ due to different model physics. The range of simulated ENSO amplitude changes in the large ensemble historical simulations encompasses 90{\%} of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 historical simulations and 80{\%} of moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) warming scenarios. When considering projected ENSO pattern changes, model differences are also important. We find that ENSO has high internal variability and that single realizations of a model can produce very different results to the ensemble mean response. Due to this variability, 30–40 ensemble members of a single model are needed to robustly compute absolute ENSO variance to a 10{\%} error when 30-year analysis periods are used.},
author = {Maher, N. and Matei, D. and Milinski, S. and Marotzke, J.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079764},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,MPI-GE,forced signal,internal variability,projections},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {11390--11398},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{ENSO Change in Climate Projections: Forced Response or Internal Variability?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL079764},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Maidment2015,
abstract = {Multiple observational data sets and atmosphere-only simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analyzed to characterize recent rainfall variability and trends over Africa focusing on 1983–2010. Data sets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in rain gauge density, were identified. The remaining observations display coherent increases in annual Sahel rainfall (29 to 43 mm yr {\`{A}}1 per decade), decreases in March–May East African rainfall ({\`{A}}14 to {\`{A}}65 mm yr {\`{A}}1 per decade), and increases in annual Southern Africa rainfall (32 to 41 mm yr {\`{A}}1 per decade). However, Central Africa annual rainfall trends vary in sign ({\`{A}}10 to +39 mm yr {\`{A}}1 per decade). For Southern Africa, observed and sea surface temperature (SST)-forced model simulated rainfall variability are significantly correlated (r{\~{}}0.5) and linked to SST patterns associated with recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation.},
annote = {SST patterns play a strong role in determining Africa-wide rainfall trends since 1983 while spurious rainfall trends linked to changes in gauge density over time. Increased southern Africa DJF rainfall is linked to negative phase Pacifc Decadal Variability index; this is expected to reverse following the change positive PDO around 2014.},
author = {Maidment, Ross I. and Allan, Richard P. and Black, Emily},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL065765},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {observations,simulations,variability},
number = {19},
pages = {8155--8164},
title = {{Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa}},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2{\&}SrcAuth=ORCID{\&}SrcApp=OrcidOrg{\&}DestLinkType=FullRecord{\&}DestApp=WOS{\_}CPL{\&}KeyUT=WOS:000363695500037{\&}KeyUID=WOS:000363695500037},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Malavelle2017,
abstract = {Investigations of an Icelandic volcanic eruption confirm that sulfate aerosols caused a discernible yet transient brightening effect, as predicted, but their effect on the liquid water path was unexpectedly negligible.},
author = {Malavelle, Florent F. and Haywood, Jim M. and Jones, Andy and Gettelman, Andrew and Clarisse, Lieven and Bauduin, Sophie and Allan, Richard P. and Karset, Inger Helene H. and Kristj{\'{a}}nsson, J{\'{o}}n Egill and Oreopoulos, Lazaros and Cho, Nayeong and Lee, Dongmin and Bellouin, Nicolas and Boucher, Olivier and Grosvenor, Daniel P. and Carslaw, Ken S. and Dhomse, Sandip and Mann, Graham W. and Schmidt, Anja and Coe, Hugh and Hartley, Margaret E. and Dalvi, Mohit and Hill, Adrian A. and Johnson, Ben T. and Johnson, Colin E. and Knight, Jeff R. and O'Connor, Fiona M. and Partridge, Daniel G. and Stier, Philip and Myhre, Gunnar and Platnick, Steven and Stephens, Graeme L. and Takahashi, Hanii and Thordarson, Thorvaldur},
doi = {10.1038/nature22974},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jun},
number = {7659},
pages = {485--491},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions}},
volume = {546},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Malhi2008,
abstract = {The forest biome of Amazonia is one of Earth's greatest biological treasures and a major component of the Earth system. This century, it faces the dual threats of deforestation and stress from climate change. Here, we summarize some of the latest findings and thinking on these threats, explore the consequences for the forest ecosystem and its human residents, and outline options for the future of Amazonia. We also discuss the implications of new proposals to finance preservation of Amazonian forests.},
author = {Malhi, Yadvinder and Roberts, J. Timmons and Betts, Richard A. and Killeen, Timothy J. and Li, Wenhong and Nobre, Carlos A.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1146961},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jan},
number = {5860},
pages = {169--172},
title = {{Climate Change, Deforestation, and the Fate of the Amazon}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1146961},
volume = {319},
year = {2008}
}
@article{malhi:2009,
author = {Malhi, Y and Arag{\~{a}}o, L.E.O.C. and Galbraith, D and Huntingford, C and Fisher, R and Zelazowski, P and Sitch, S and McSweeney, C and Meir, P},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0804619106},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {49},
pages = {20610},
publisher = {National Acad Sciences},
title = {{Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest}},
volume = {106},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Mallakpour2017,
author = {Mallakpour, Iman and Villarini, Gabriele},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-016-1881-z},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {oct},
number = {1-2},
pages = {345--363},
publisher = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
title = {{Analysis of changes in the magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of heavy precipitation over the contiguous USA}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-016-1881-z},
volume = {130},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Maloney2014,
abstract = {In part III of a three-part study on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, the authors examine projections of twenty-first-century climate in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects of North American climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regional manifestations of these climate variables. The authors also examine changes in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and North American intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistent with those previously published for CMIP3, although CMIP5 model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, including CMIP5 model agreement on increased central California precipitation. The paper also highlights uncertainties and limitations based on current results as priorities for further research. Although many projected changes in North American climate are consistent across CMIP5 models, substantial intermodel disagreement exists in other aspects. Areas of disagreement include projections of changes in snow water equivalent on a regional basis, summer Arctic sea ice extent, the magnitude and sign of regional precipitation changes, extreme heat events across the northern United States, and Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity.},
author = {Maloney, Eric D. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Chang, Edmund and Colle, Brian and Fu, Rong and Geil, Kerrie L. and Hu, Qi and Jiang, Xianan and Johnson, Nathaniel and Karnauskas, Kristopher B. and Kinter, James and Kirtman, Benjamin and Kumar, Sanjiv and Langenbrunner, Baird and Lombardo, Kelly and Long, Lindsey N. and Mariotti, Annarita and Meyerson, Joyce E. and Mo, Kingtse C. and Neelin, J. David and Pan, Zaitao and Seager, Richard and Serra, Yolande and Seth, Anji and Sheffield, Justin and Stroeve, Julienne and Thibeault, Jeanne and Xie, Shang-Ping and Wang, Chunzai and Wyman, Bruce and Zhao, Ming},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2230--2270},
title = {{North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments: Part III: Assessment of Twenty-First-Century Projections}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Maloney2013,
author = {Maloney, Eric D. and Xie, Shang-Ping},
doi = {10.1029/2012MS000171},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {32--47},
title = {{Sensitivity of tropical intraseasonal variability to the pattern of climate warming}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012MS000171},
volume = {5},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Maloney2019,
author = {Maloney, Eric D. and Adames, {\'{A}}ngel F. and Bui, Hien X.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0331-6},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {26--33},
title = {{Madden–Julian oscillation changes under anthropogenic warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0331-6},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Maloney2000,
author = {Maloney, Eric D. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1451:MOENPH>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {1451--1460},
title = {{Modulation of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes by the Madden–Julian Oscillation}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442{\%}282000{\%}29013{\%}3C1451{\%}3AMOENPH{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {13},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Mamalakis,
abstract = {Future changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; a narrow band of heavy precipitation in the tropics) with climate change could affect the livelihood and food security of billions of people. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on zonal-mean shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the-art climate models and document a robust zonally varying ITCZ response to the SSP3-7.0 scenario by 2100, with a northward shift over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and a southward shift in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The zonally varying response is consistent with changes in the divergent atmospheric energy transport and sector-mean shifts of the energy flux equator. Our analysis provides insight about mechanisms influencing the future position of the tropical rain belt and may allow for more-robust projections of climate change impacts.},
author = {Mamalakis, Antonios and Randerson, James T. and Yu, Jin-Yi and Pritchard, Michael S. and Magnusdottir, Gudrun and Smyth, Padhraic and Levine, Paul A. and Yu, Sungduk and Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-00963-x},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Inter convergence zone},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {143--151},
title = {{Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rain belt in response to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00963-x http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00963-x},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Mankin2018,
annote = {Simulated greening {\&} drying for 42{\%} of global vegetated land linked to warming, increased mean {\&} extreme precipitation {\&} CO2 fertilisation effects},
author = {Mankin, Justin S. and Seager, Richard and Smerdon, Jason E. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Williams, A. Park and Horton, Radley M.},
doi = {10.1002/2018GL077051},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CESM,drought,ecosystems,hydrology,runoff},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3115--3125},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Blue Water Trade-Offs With Vegetation in a CO2-Enriched Climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2018gl077051},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mankin:2017aa,
abstract = {AbstractClimate models project significant twenty-first-century declines in water availability over the American West from anthropogenic warming. However, the physical mechanisms underpinning this response are poorly characterized, as are the uncertainties from vegetation?s modulation of evaporative losses. To understand the drivers and uncertainties of future hydroclimate in the American West, a 35-member single model ensemble is used to examine the response of summer soil moisture and runoff to anthropogenic forcing. Widespread dry season soil moisture declines occur across the region despite increases in total water-year precipitation and ubiquitous increases in plant water-use efficiency. These modeled soil moisture declines are initially forced by significant snowpack losses that directly diminish summer soil water, even in regions where water-year precipitation increases. When snowpack priming is coupled with a warming- and CO2-induced shift in phenology and increased primary production, widespread increases in leaf area further reduces summer soil moisture and runoff by outpacing decreased stomatal conductance from high CO2. The net effects lead to the co-occurrence of both a ?greener? and ?drier? future across the western United States. Because simulated vegetation exerts a large influence on predicted changes in water availability in the American West, these findings highlight the importance of reducing the substantial uncertainties in the ecological processes increasingly incorporated into numerical Earth system models.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0213.1},
author = {Mankin, Justin S and Smerdon, Jason E and Cook, Benjamin I and Williams, A Park and Seager, Richard},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0213.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {21},
pages = {8689--8710},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The Curious Case of Projected Twenty-First-Century Drying but Greening in the American West}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0213.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mankin2019,
abstract = {Plants are expected to generate more global-scale runoff under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through their influence on surface resistance to evapotranspiration. Recent studies using Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ostensibly reaffirm this result, further suggesting that plants will ameliorate the dire reductions in water availability projected by other studies that use aridity metrics. Here we complicate this narrative by analysing the change in precipitation partitioning to plants, runoff and storage in multiple Earth system models under both high carbon dioxide concentrations and warming. We show that projected plant responses directly reduce future runoff across vast swaths of North America, Europe and Asia because bulk canopy water demands increase with additional vegetation growth and longer and warmer growing seasons. These runoff declines occur despite increased surface resistance to evapotranspiration and vegetation total water use efficiency, even in regions with increasing or unchanging precipitation. We demonstrate that constraining the large uncertainty in the multimodel ensemble with regional-scale observations of evapotranspiration partitioning strengthens these results. We conclude that terrestrial vegetation plays a large and unresolved role in shaping future regional freshwater availability, one that will not ubiquitously ameliorate future warming-driven surface drying.},
author = {Mankin, Justin S. and Seager, Richard and Smerdon, Jason E. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Williams, A. Park},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0480-x},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {12},
pages = {983--988},
title = {{Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0480-x},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Mann2017,
abstract = {Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.},
author = {Mann, Michael E. and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Kornhuber, Kai and Steinman, Byron A. and Miller, Sonya K. and Coumou, Dim},
doi = {10.1038/srep45242},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Atmospheric science,Climate change},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {45242},
pmid = {28345645},
publisher = {The Author(s)},
title = {{Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep45242 http://10.0.4.14/srep45242 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242{\#}supplementary-information www.nature.com/scientificreports},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Marciano2015,
abstract = {Previous studies investigating the impacts of climate change on extratropical cyclones have primarily fo- cused on changes in the frequency, intensity, and distribution of these events. Fewer studies have directly investigated changes in the storm-scale dynamics of individual cyclones. Precipitation associated with these events is projected to increase with warming owing to increased atmospheric water vapor content. This presents the potential for enhancement of cyclone intensity through increased lower-tropospheric diabatic potential vorticity generation. This hypothesis is tested using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to simulate individual wintertime extratropical cyclone events along the United States East Coast in present-day and future thermodynamic environments. Thermodynamic changes derived from an ensemble of GCMs for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) A2 emissions scenario are applied to analyzed initial and lateral boundary conditions of observed strongly developing cyclone events, holding relative humidity constant. The perturbed boundary conditions are then used to drive future simulations of these strongly developing events. Present-to-future changes in the storm-scale dynamics are assessed using Earth-relative and storm-relative compositing. Precipitation increases at a rate slightly less than that dictated by the Clausius–Clapeyron relation with warming. Increases in cyclone intensity are seen in the form of minimum sea level pressure decreases and a strengthened 10-m wind field. Amplification of the low-level jet occurs because of the en- hancement of latent heating. Storm-relative potential vorticity diagnostics indicate a strengthening of diabatic potential vorticity near the cyclone center, thus supporting the hypothesis that enhanced latent heat release is responsible for this regional increase in future cyclone intensity.},
author = {Marciano, Christopher G. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Robinson, Walter A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00418.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {2},
pages = {468--484},
title = {{Changes in U.S. East Coast cyclone dynamics with climate change}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Marengo2013a,
abstract = {Changes in rainfall extremes and flooding are becoming more frequent in many countries, particularly in large cities where people and assets are concentrated. In the Metropolitan Area of the city of S{\{}{\~{a}}{\}}o Paulo (MASP) region, heavy or extreme precipitation events have important effects on society. Flash floods and landslides, associated with intense, but often brief, rainfall events, may be the most destructive of extreme events. Observations since the mid-1930s in the MASP region have shown significant increases in total and heavy rainfall and decreases in light rain. This was probably due to natural climate variability, but with some signals of the urbanization effect, especially during the last 40 yr. Here projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in the MASP region were derived from the Eta-CPTEC 40 km regional model nested in the HadCM3 global model, with 4 available realizations of the global model for the A1B emissions scenario to the end of the 21st century. Trends were assessed for significance using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. Projections, based on percentiles and on the number of days with rainfall above a certain limit, suggested: (a) an increase in total precipitation, (b) an increase in heavy precipitation and in the contribution to total precipitation from more intense rainfall events, and (c) the possibility of longer dry periods separating days with intense rain in the MASP region. The trends were stronger and more significant in the second half of the 21st century. We are aware that dynamical downscaling may not provide information at the weather station level and that climate modeling does not resolve all uncertainties. However, we believe that this exercise enables climate assessments that, in time, can be used for general public information.},
author = {Marengo, Jose A. and Valverde, Maria C. and Obregon, Guillermo O.},
doi = {10.3354/cr01160},
issn = {0936577X},
journal = {Climate Research},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate modeling,Heavy precipitation,Metropolitan Area of S{\~{a}}o Paulo},
number = {1},
pages = {61--72},
title = {{Observed and projected changes in rainfall extremes in the Metropolitan Area of S{\~{a}}o Paulo}},
volume = {57},
year = {2013}
}
@unpublished{Marengo2014,
abstract = {This report investigates the climate of two target regions of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS): Central and South America (CA and SA, respectively). The report assesses the implications of climate change for agriculture, with a particular focus on those aspects of climate change that will have greatest impact on the crops currently grown in each region. The study investigated the ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and downscaled climate change scenarios to reproduce already observed climates, to establish the reliability of future climate projections, as well as projections of how associated crops might grow under future conditions.},
address = {Copenhagen, Denmark},
author = {Marengo, Jose A. and Chou, Sin Chan and Torres, Roger R. and Giarolla, Angelica and Alves, Lincoln M. and Lyra, Andre},
keywords = {Climate change,General Circulation Model,adaptation,agriculture,climate vulnerability,extremes,impacts},
pages = {91},
publisher = {CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)},
series = {CCAFS Working Paper no. 73},
title = {{Climate Change in Central and South America: Recent Trends, Future Projections, and Impacts on Regional Agriculture}},
url = {https://hdl.handle.net/10568/41912},
year = {2014}
}
@article{margulis2016landsat,
abstract = {A newly developed state-of-the-art snow water equivalent (SWE) reanalysis dataset over the Sierra Nevada (United States) based on the assimilation of remotely sensed fractional snow-covered area data over the Landsat 5–8 record (1985–2015) is presented. The method (fully Bayesian), resolution (daily and 90 m), temporal extent (31 years), and accuracy provide a unique dataset for investigating snow processes. The verified dataset (based on a comparison with over 9000 station years of in situ data) exhibited mean and root-mean-square errors less than 3 and 13 cm, respectively, and correlation greater than 0.95 compared with in situ SWE observations. The reanalysis dataset was used to characterize the peak SWE climatology to provide a basic accounting of the stored snowpack water in the Sierra Nevada over the last 31 years. The pixel-wise peak SWE volume over the domain was found to be 20.0 km3 on average with a range of 4.0–40.6 km3. The ongoing drought in California contains the two lowest snowpack years (water years 2014 and 2015) and three of the four driest years over the examined record. It was found that the basin-average peak SWE, while underestimating the total water storage in snowpack over the year, accurately captures the interannual variability in stored snowpack water. However, the results showed that the assumption that 1 April SWE is representative of the peak SWE can lead to significant underestimation of basin-average peak SWE both on an average (21{\%} across all basins) and on an interannual basis (up to 98{\%} across all basin years).},
author = {Margulis, Steven A and Cort{\'{e}}s, Gonzalo and Girotto, Manuela and Durand, Michael},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-15-0177.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1203--1221},
title = {{A Landsat-Era Sierra Nevada Snow Reanalysis (1985–2015)}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0177.1},
volume = {17},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Markonis2018,
abstract = {In recent years, there has been growing concern about the effect of global warming on water resources, especially at regional and continental scales. The last IPCC report on extremes states that there is medium confidence about an increase on European drought frequency during twentieth century. Here we use the Old World Drought Atlas palaeoclimatic reconstruction to show that when Europe's hydroclimate is examined under a millennial, multi-scale perspective, a significant decrease in dryness can be observed since 1920 over most of central and northern Europe. On the contrary, in the south, drying conditions have prevailed, creating an intense north-To-south dipole. In both cases, hydroclimatic conditions have shifted to, and in some regions exceeded, their millennial boundaries, remaining at these extreme levels for the longest period of the 1000-year-long record.},
author = {Markonis, Y. and Hanel, M. and M{\'{a}}ca, P. and Kysel{\'{y}}, J. and Cook, E. R.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04207-7},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1767},
pmid = {29720588},
title = {{Persistent multi-scale fluctuations shift European hydroclimate to its millennial boundaries}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04207-7},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Marlier2017,
abstract = {Washington State experienced widespread drought in 2015 and the largest burned area in the observational record, attributable in part to exceptionally low winter snow accumulation and high summer temperatures. We examine 2015 drought severity in the Cascade and Olympic mountains relative to the historical climatology (1950–present) and future climate projections (mid-21st century) for a mid-range global greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Although winter precipitation was near normal, the regional winter temperature anomaly was +2.1 °C (+2.0$\sigma$) in 2015, consistent with projections of a +2.3 °C (+2.2$\sigma$) temperature change and near normal precipitation in the future, relative to the climatology. April 1 snow water equivalent in 2015, −325 mm (−1.5$\sigma$), and the future, −252 mm (−1.1$\sigma$), were substantially lower than the climatology. Wildfire potential, as indicated by dead fuel moisture content, was higher in 2015 than mid-21st century mean projections. In contrast to most historical droughts, which have been driven by precipitation deficits, our results suggest that 2015 is a useful analog of typical conditions in the Pacific Northwest by the mid-21st century.},
author = {Marlier, Miriam E. and Xiao, Mu and Engel, Ruth and Livneh, Ben and Abatzoglou, John T. and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa8fde},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,drought,fire risk,hydrology},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {114008},
title = {{The 2015 drought in Washington State: a harbinger of things to come?}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8fde},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Marshall2017,
author = {Marshall, Gareth J. and Thompson, David W. J. and van den Broeke, Michiel R.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075998},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {11580--11589},
title = {{The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL075998},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Marshall2015b,
abstract = {Strong relationships exist between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and surface air temperature (SAT) across much of Antarctica. Changes in the SAM will have a profound influence on future Antarctic climate so it is important that the models used to predict climate change can accurately reproduce current SAM–SAT relationships. We analyse data from 50 Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 models to assess how well they reproduce the observed mean and variability of annual and seasonal SAM–SAT relationships at six Antarctic stations. Over-all, the models do better at reproducing these relationships when meridional flow has its largest influence on SAT, doing best (worst) in winter (autumn and summer). They are generally unable to replicate existing seasonal cycles in the strength of the SAM–SAT relationship and show much less spatial and especially temporal variability in the strength of these relationships than isobserved. Using an estimate of intrinsic variability to quantify the skill of the CMIP5 mod-els, their average ability to successfully replicate a seasonal SAM–SAT relationship at the six locations studied ranges from 16{\%} in autumn to 32{\%} in winter. The mean success rate of a single model across all four seasons is 24{\%}, rang-ing from 8 to 38{\%} (compared to a ‘perfect model' with 46{\%}). Analysing the different atmospheric circulation pat-terns associated with extreme SAM–SAT correlations in the models demonstrates the importance of correctly repro-ducing both the climatological mean and variability of the planetary longwaves at Southern Hemisphere high-latitudes (particularly wave-number 3), in order to accurately repro-duce observed SAM–SAT relationships across Antarctica.},
author = {Marshall, Gareth J. and Bracegirdle, Thomas J.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2406-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1513--1535},
title = {{An examination of the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic surface air temperatures in the CMIP5 historical runs}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2406-z},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Martin-Gomez2016,
abstract = {Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical oceans are able to generate extratropical atmospheric circulation anomalies that can induce rainfall variability and changes in the sources of moisture. The work reported here evaluates the interdecadal changes in the moisture sources for southeastern South America (SESA) during austral summer, and it is divided into two complementary parts. In the first part the authors construct a climate network to detect synchronization periods among the tropical oceans and the precipitation over SESA. Afterward, taking into account these results, the authors select two periods with different degrees of synchronization to compare the spatial distribution of the SESA moisture sources.},
author = {Mart{\'{i}}n-G{\'{o}}mez, Ver{\'{o}}nica and Hern{\'{a}}ndez-Garcia, Emilio and Barreiro, Marcelo and L{\'{o}}pez, Crist{\'{o}}bal},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0803.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {6751--6763},
title = {{Interdecadal Variability of Southeastern South America Rainfall and Moisture Sources during the Austral Summertime}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0803.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Martin-Gomez2016a,
abstract = {ABSTRACT Southeastern South America (SESA) rainfall is influenced by the tropical Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. At the same time, these tropical oceans interact with each other inducing sea surface temperature anomalies in remote basins through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections. In this study, we employ a tool from complex networks to analyse the collective influence of the three tropical oceans on austral spring rainfall variability over SESA during the 20th century. To do so we construct a climate network considering as nodes the observed Ni{\~{n}}o3.4, Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) indices, together with an observed and simulated precipitation (PCP) index over SESA. The mean network distance is considered as a measure of synchronization among all these phenomena during the 20th century. The approach allowed to uncover two main synchronization periods characterized by different interactions among the oceanic and precipitation nodes. Whereas in the 1930s El Ni{\~{n}}o and the TNA were the main tropical oceanic phenomena that influenced SESA precipitation variability, during the 1970s they were El Ni{\~{n}}o and the IOD. The influence of El Ni{\~{n}}o on SESA precipitation variability might be understood through an increase of the northerly transport of moisture in lower-levels and advection of cyclonic vorticity in upper-levels. On the other hand, the interaction between the IOD and PCP can be interpreted in two possible ways. One possibility is that both nodes (IOD and PCP) are forced by El Ni{\~{n}}o. Another possibility is that the Indian Ocean warming influences rainfall over SESA through the eastward propagation of Rossby waves as suggested previously. Finally, the influence of TNA on SESA precipitation persists even when the El Ni{\~{n}}o signal is removed, suggesting that SST anomalies in the TNA can directly influence SESA precipitation and further studies are needed to elucidate this connection.},
author = {Mart{\'{i}}n-G{\'{o}}mez, Ver{\'{o}}nica and Barreiro, Marcelo},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4428},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {climate variability,precipitation over SESA,synchronization events,tropic-extratropic teleconnections,tropical ocean teleconnections},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1344--1358},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Analysis of oceans' influence on spring time rainfall variability over Southeastern South America during the 20th century}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4428},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Martel2018,
abstract = {Climate change will impact both mean and extreme precipitation, having potentially significant consequences on water resources. The implementation of efficient adaptation measures must rely on the development of reliable projections of future precipitation and on the assessment of their related uncertainty. Natural climate variability is a key uncertainty component, which can result in apparent decadal trends that may be greater or lower than the long-term underlying anthropogenic climate change trend. The goal of the present study is to assess how natural climate variability affects the ability to detect the climate change signal for mean and extreme precipitation. Annual and seasonal total precipitation are used as indicators of the mean, whereas annual and seasonal maximum daily precipitation are used as indicators of extremes. This is done using the CanESM2 50-member and CESM1 40-member large ensembles of simulations over the 1950–2100 period. At the local scale, results indicate that natural climate variability will dominate the uncertainty for annual and seasonal extreme precipitation going up to the end of the century in many parts of the world. The climate change signal can, however, be reliably detected much earlier at the regional scale for extreme precipitation. In the case of annual and seasonal total precipitation, the climate change signal can be reliably detected at the local scale without resorting to a regional analysis. Nonetheless, natural climate variability can impede the detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal until the middle to late century in many parts of the world for mean and extreme precipitation.},
author = {Martel, Jean-Luc and Mailhot, Alain and Brissette, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Caya, Daniel},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0282.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {4241--4263},
title = {{Role of Natural Climate Variability in the Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change Signal for Mean and Extreme Precipitation at Local and Regional Scales}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0282.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Martens2018,
abstract = {Section8.3; ET},
author = {Martens, Brecht and Waegeman, Willem and Dorigo, Wouter A. and Verhoest, Niko E. C. and Miralles, Diego G.},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-018-0053-5},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {43},
title = {{Terrestrial evaporation response to modes of climate variability}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0053-5},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Martin2020,
abstract = {Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring–based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management.},
author = {Martin, Justin T. and Pederson, Gregory T. and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Cook, Edward R. and McCabe, Gregory J. and Anchukaitis, Kevin J. and Wise, Erika K. and Erger, Patrick J. and Dolan, Larry and McGuire, Marketa and Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu and Chase, Katherine J. and Littell, Jeremy S. and Gray, Stephen T. and {St. George}, Scott and Friedman, Jonathan M. and Sauchyn, David J. and St-Jacques, Jeannine-Marie and King, John},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1916208117},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Drought severity,Precipitation,Streamflow,Temperature,Water resources},
month = {may},
number = {21},
pages = {11328--11336},
pmid = {32393620},
title = {{Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States' largest river basin}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1916208117},
volume = {117},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Marty2017,
abstract = {Snow plays a critical role in the water cycle of many mountain regions and heavily populated areas downstream. In this study, changes of snow water equivalent (SWE) time series from long-term stations in five Alpine countries are analyzed. The sites are located between 500 and 3000 m above mean sea level, and the analysis is mainly based on measurement series from 1 February (winter) and 1 April (spring). The investigation was performed over different time periods, including the last six decades. The large majority of the SWE time series demonstrate a reduction in snow mass, which is more pronounced for spring than for winter. The observed SWE decrease is independent of latitude or longitude, despite the different climate regions in the Alpine domain. In contrast to measurement series from other mountain ranges, even the highest sites revealed a decline in spring SWE. A comparison with a 100-yr mass balance series from a glacier in the central Alps demonstrates that the peak SWEs have been on a record-low level since around the beginning of the twenty-first century at high Alpine sites. In the long term, clearly increasing temperatures and a coincident weak reduction in precipitation are the main drivers for the pronounced snow mass loss in the past.},
author = {Marty, Christoph and Tilg, Anna-Maria and Jonas, Tobias},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-16-0188.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1021--1031},
publisher = {Hydrometeorology},
title = {{Recent Evidence of Large-Scale Receding Snow Water Equivalents in the European Alps}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0188.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Marvel2017,
abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch between observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Ni{\~{n}}a–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. These changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.},
author = {Marvel, Kate and Biasutti, Michela and Bonfils, C{\'{e}}line and Taylor, Karl E. and Kushnir, Yochanan and Cook, Benjamin I.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0572.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Pattern detection,Precipitation,Satellite observations,Seasonal cycle},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {4983--4995},
title = {{Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0572.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{mcbdsw19,
author = {Marvel, Kate and Cook, Benjamin I. and Bonfils, C{\'{e}}line J. W. and Durack, Paul J. and Smerdon, Jason E. and Williams, A. Park},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {may},
number = {7754},
pages = {59--65},
title = {{Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1149-8},
volume = {569},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Marzeion2020,
abstract = {Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections.},
author = {Marzeion, Ben and Hock, Regine and Anderson, Brian and Bliss, Andrew and Champollion, Nicolas and Fujita, Koji and Huss, Matthias and Immerzeel, Walter W and Kraaijenbrink, Philip and Malles, Jan‐Hendrik and Maussion, Fabien and Radi{\'{c}}, Valentina and Rounce, David R and Sakai, Akiko and Shannon, Sarah and Wal, Roderik and Zekollari, Harry},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001470},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {glacier,modeling,projections,sea level rise,uncertainties},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {e2019EF001470},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Inc},
title = {{Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019EF001470},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Marzeion2018a,
author = {Marzeion, Ben and Kaser, Georg and Maussion, Fabien and Champollion, Nicolas},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0093-1},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {305--308},
title = {{Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0093-1},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Massei2017,
abstract = {In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological sci- entific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological vari- ables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating correlation between large and local scales, empirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and stream- flow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain addi- tional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: (i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and (ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the links between large and local scales were not necessarily constant accord- ing to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spa- tial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach, which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing monthly regional hydrometeorological processes (predictand: precipitation and stream- flow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector). This approach basically consisted in three steps: 1 – decomposing large-scale climate and hydrological signals (SLP field, precipitation or streamflow) using discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis, 2 – gen- erating a statistical downscaling model per time-scale, 3 – summing up all scale-dependent models in order to obtain a final reconstruction of the predictand. The results obtained revealed a significant improvement of the reconstructions for both precipitation and streamflow when using the multiresolu- tion ESD model instead of basic ESD. In particular, the multiresolution ESD model handled very well the significant changes in variance through time observed in either precipitation or streamflow. For instance, the post-1980 period, which had been characterized by particularly high amplitudes in interannual- to-interdecadal variability associated with alternating flood and extremely low-flow/drought periods (e.g., winter/spring 2001, summer 2003), could not be reconstructed without integrating wavelet multiresolution analysis into the model. In accordance with previous studies, the wavelet components detected in SLP, precipitation and streamflow on interannual to interdecadal time-scales could be interpreted in terms of influence of the Gulf-Stream oceanic front on atmospheric circulation.},
author = {Massei, N. and Dieppois, B. and Hannah, D.M. and Lavers, D.A. and Fossa, M. and Laignel, B. and Debret, M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.008},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {mar},
pages = {262--275},
title = {{Multi-time-scale hydroclimate dynamics of a regional watershed and links to large-scale atmospheric circulation: Application to the Seine river catchment, France}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169417300094},
volume = {546},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Massmann2019,
abstract = {Increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increases atmospheric demand for water. While increased evapotranspiration (ET) in response to increased atmospheric demand seems intuitive, plants are capable of reducing ET in response to increased VPD by closing their stomata. We examine which effect dominates the response to increasing VPD: atmospheric demand and increases in ET or plant response (stomata closure) and decreases in ET. We use Penman-Monteith, combined with semiempirical optimal stomatal regulation theory and underlying water use efficiency, to develop a theoretical framework for assessing ET response to VPD. The theory suggests that depending on the environment and plant characteristics, ET response to increasing VPD can vary from strongly decreasing to increasing, highlighting the diversity of plant water regulation strategies. The ET response varies due to (1) climate, with tropical and temperate climates more likely to exhibit a positive ET response to increasing VPD than boreal and arctic climates; (2) photosynthesis strategy, with C3 plants more likely to exhibit a positive ET response than C4 plants; and (3) plant type, with crops more likely to exhibit a positive ET response, and shrubs and gymniosperm trees more likely to exhibit a negative ET response. These results, derived from previous literature connecting plant parameters to plant and climate characteristics, highlight the utility of our simplified framework for understanding complex land-atmosphere systems in terms of idealized scenarios in which ET responds to VPD only. This response is otherwise challenging to assess in an environment where many processes coevolve together.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {1805.05444},
author = {Massmann, Adam and Gentine, Pierre and Lin, Changjie},
doi = {10.1029/2019MS001790},
eprint = {1805.05444},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {ecohydrology,ecosystem modeling,evapotranspiration,land-atmosphere interaction,stomatal conductance,vapor pressure deficit},
number = {10},
pages = {3305--3320},
title = {{When Does Vapor Pressure Deficit Drive or Reduce Evapotranspiration?}},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{IPCCPaleoclimateArchivesMasson-Delmotte2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Masson-Delmotte, V and Schulz, M and Abe-Ouchi, A and Beer, J and Ganopolski, A and {Gonz{\'{a}}lez Rouco}, J F and Jansen, E and Lambeck, K and Luterbacher, J and Naish, T and Osborn, T and Otto-Bliesner, B and Quinn, T and Ramesh, R and Rojas, M and Shao, X and Timmermann, A},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {5},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.013},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {383--464},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Information from Paleoclimate Archives}},
type = {Book Section},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{matthews2016cyclone,
author = {Matthews, T and Murphy, Conor and Wilby, Robert L and Harrigan, Shaun},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4425},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1299--1312},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{A cyclone climatology of the British-Irish Isles 1871–2012}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4425},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Mattingly2018JGR,
abstract = {Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss has accelerated since the turn of the twenty‐first century. Several recent episodes of rapid GrIS ablation coincided with intense moisture transport over Greenland by atmospheric rivers (ARs), suggesting that these events influence the evolution of GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). ARs likely provide melt energy through several physical mechanisms, and conversely, may increase SMB through enhanced snow accumulation. In this study, we compile a long‐term (1980–2016) record of moisture transport events using a conventional AR identification algorithm as well as a self‐organizing map classification applied to MERRA‐2 data. We then analyze AR effects on the GrIS using melt data from passive microwave satellite observations and regional climate model output. Results show that anomalously strong moisture transport by ARs clearly contributed to increased GrIS mass loss in recent years. AR activity over Greenland was above normal throughout the 2000s and early 2010s, and recent melting seasons with above‐average GrIS melt feature positive moisture transport anomalies over Greenland. Analysis of individual AR impacts shows a pronounced increase in GrIS surface melt after strong AR events. AR effects on SMB are more complex, as strong summer ARs cause sharp SMB losses in the ablation zone that exceed moderate SMB gains induced by ARs in the accumulation zone during summer and in all areas during other seasons. Our results demonstrate the influence of the strongest ARs in controlling GrIS SMB, and we conclude that projections of future GrIS SMB should accurately capture these rare ephemeral events.},
annote = {atmospheric river events important in determining melting of Greenland ice sheet},
author = {Mattingly, K. S. and Mote, T. L. and Fettweis, X.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD028714},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = { Ice Sheet,ice sheet,mass balance,poleward moisture transport,self‐organizing maps},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {8538--8560},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Atmospheric River Impacts on Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018JD028714},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Maurer2019,
abstract = {Himalayan glaciers supply meltwater to densely populated catchments in South Asia, and regional observations of glacier change over multiple decades are needed to understand climate drivers and assess resulting impacts on glacier-fed rivers. Here, we quantify changes in ice thickness during the intervals 1975–2000 and 2000–2016 across the Himalayas, using a set of digital elevation models derived from cold war–era spy satellite film and modern stereo satellite imagery. We observe consistent ice loss along the entire 2000-km transect for both intervals and find a doubling of the average loss rate during 2000–2016 [−0.43 ± 0.14 m w.e. year−1 (meters of water equivalent per year)] compared to 1975–2000 (−0.22 ± 0.13 m w.e. year−1). The similar magnitude and acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas suggests a regionally coherent climate forcing, consistent with atmospheric warming and associated energy fluxes as the dominant drivers of glacier change.},
author = {Maurer, J M and Schaefer, J M and Rupper, S and Corley, A},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aav7266},
issn = {23752548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {eaav7266},
pmid = {31223649},
title = {{Acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas over the past 40 years}},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/ https://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aav7266},
volume = {5},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Maxwell2016,
abstract = {Understanding freshwater fluxes at continental scales will help us better predict hydrologic response and manage our terrestrial water resources. The partitioning of evapotranspiration into bare soil evaporation and plant transpiration remains a key uncertainty in the terrestrial water balance. We used integrated hydrologic simulations that couple vegetation and land-energy processes with surface and subsurface hydrology to study transpiration partitioning at the continental scale. Both latent heat flux and partitioning are connected to water table depth, and including lateral groundwater flow in the model increases transpiration partitioning from 47 ± 13 to 62 ± 12{\%}. This suggests that lateral groundwater flow, which is generally simplified or excluded in Earth system models, may provide a missing link for reconciling observations and global models of terrestrial water fluxes.},
author = {Maxwell, Reed M. and Condon, Laura E.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaf7891},
issn = {10959203},
journal = {Science},
number = {6297},
pages = {377--380},
title = {{Connections between groundwater flow and transpiration partitioning}},
volume = {353},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Mayta2019,
abstract = {The relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the seasonal cycle of the intraseasonal rainfall variability in the Amazon Basin (AB) are analysed using band‐pass‐filtered gauge‐based gridded rainfall data for the 1980–2009 period. Intraseasonal events (IE) have been defined and selected based on extreme values of the first principal component (PC1) time series, which comes from the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to the filtered rainfall data over the AB. A total of 132 IEs were identified with an average of approximately five events per year. About 25{\%} of the total IEs in the Amazon region are not restricted to the eastwards propagating equatorially confined MJO and other mechanisms (e.g., through Rossby wave trains in the Southern Hemisphere) might play an important role. In addition, we find that the incomplete IEs (events that do not evolve through a complete life cycle) are associated with suppressed rainfall conditions over tropical South America. The development of the IEs over the AB, when compared with the different phases of the MJO index, shows a coherent relationship, where convective‐based indices are able to better account their evolution. On a global scale, the upper‐tropospheric patterns and the rainfall composites based on the PC1 time series show that the MJO is one of the main atmospheric modulator mechanisms of the intraseasonal rainfall variability over the Amazon region throughout the annual cycle. It is found that the intraseasonal variability is particularly important during the austral winter, when the percentage contribution with respect to the mean daily seasonal precipitation over some Amazon regions can reach 50{\%}.},
author = {Mayta, Victor C. and Ambrizzi, T{\'{e}}rcio and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and {Silva Dias}, Pedro L.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5810},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {343--360},
title = {{The role of the Madden–Julian oscillation on the Amazon Basin intraseasonal rainfall variability}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5810},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{McCabe2017,
abstract = {The upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) is one of the primary sources of water for the western United States, and increasing temperatures likely will elevate the risk of reduced water supply in the basin. Although variability in water-year precipitation explains more of the variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than water-year UCRB temperature, since the late 1980s, increases in temperature in the UCRB have caused a substantial reduction in UCRB runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation). These reductions in flow because of increasing temperatures are the largest documented temperature-related reductions since record keeping began. Increases in UCRB temperature over the past three decades have resulted in a mean UCRB water-year streamflow departure of −1306 million m3 (or −7{\%} of mean water-year streamflow). Additionally, warm-season (April through September) temperature has had a larger effect on variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than the cool-season (October through March) temperature. The greater contribution of warm-season temperature, relative to cool-season temperature, to variability of UCRB flow suggests that evaporation or snowmelt, rather than changes from snow to rain during the cool season, has driven recent reductions in UCRB flow. It is expected that as warming continues, the negative effects of temperature on water-year UCRB streamflow will become more evident and problematic.},
author = {McCabe, Gregory J. and Wolock, David M. and Pederson, Gregory T. and Woodhouse, Connie A. and McAfee, Stephanie},
doi = {10.1175/EI-D-17-0007.1},
issn = {1087-3562},
journal = {Earth Interactions},
keywords = {Climate variability,Hydrology,Hydrometeorology,Water budget},
month = {dec},
number = {10},
pages = {1--14},
title = {{Evidence that Recent Warming is Reducing Upper Colorado River Flows}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/EI-D-17-0007.1},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
@article{McClymont2020,
author = {McClymont, Erin L. and Ford, Heather L. and Ho, Sze Ling and Tindall, Julia C. and Haywood, Alan M. and Alonso-Garcia, Montserrat and Bailey, Ian and Berke, Melissa A. and Littler, Kate and Patterson, Molly O. and Petrick, Benjamin and Peterse, Francien and Ravelo, A. Christina and Risebrobakken, Bj{\o}rg and {De Schepper}, Stijn and Swann, George E. A. and Thirumalai, Kaustubh and Tierney, Jessica E. and van der Weijst, Carolien and White, Sarah and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Baatsen, Michiel L. J. and Brady, Esther C. and Chan, Wing-Le and Chandan, Deepak and Feng, Ran and Guo, Chuncheng and von der Heydt, Anna S. and Hunter, Stephen and Li, Xiangyi and Lohmann, Gerrit and Nisancioglu, Kerim H. and Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. and Peltier, W. Richard and Stepanek, Christian and Zhang, Zhongshi},
doi = {10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
keywords = {Climatology,Foraminifera,Geologic record,Geology,Interglacial,Latitude,Ocean current,Orbital forcing,Proxy (climate),Surface ocean},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {1599--1615},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{Lessons from a high-CO2 world: an ocean view from ∼3 million years ago}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/1599/2020/},
volume = {16},
year = {2020}
}
@article{McDowell2016,
abstract = {Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (pd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET pd, and 91{\%} of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50{\%} loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.},
author = {McDowell, N. G. and Williams, A. P. and Xu, C. and Pockman, W. T. and Dickman, L. T. and Sevanto, S. and Pangle, R. and Limousin, J. and Plaut, J. and Mackay, D. S. and Ogee, J. and Domec, J. C. and Allen, C. D. and Fisher, R. A. and Jiang, X. and Muss, J. D. and Breshears, D. D. and Rauscher, S. A. and Koven, C.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2873},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {295--300},
title = {{Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2873},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{McDowell2015,
abstract = {Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy's law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy's law indicates today's forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy's corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy's law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today's forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.},
author = {McDowell, Nathan G. and Allen, Craig D.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2641},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {669--672},
title = {{Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2641},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{McGee2014a,
abstract = {Tropical paleoclimate records provide important insights into the response of precipitation patterns and the Hadley circulation to past climate changes. Paleo-records are commonly interpreted as indicating north-south shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), with the ITCZ's mean position moving toward the warmer hemisphere in response to changes in cross-equatorial temperature gradients. Though a number of records in tropical Central and South America, North Africa, Asia and the Indo-Australian region are consistent with this interpretation, the magnitudes and regional variability of past ITCZ shifts are poorly constrained. Combining estimates of past tropical sea surface temperature (SST) gradients with the strong linear relationship observed between zonally averaged ITCZ position and tropical SST gradients in the modern seasonal cycle and in models of past climates, we quantify past shifts in zonally averaged ITCZ position. We find that mean ITCZ shifts are likely less than 1° latitude during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) and mid-Holocene (6 ka) climates, with the largest shift during HS1. The ITCZ's position is closely tied to heat transport between the hemispheres by the atmosphere and ocean; accordingly, these small mean ITCZ shifts are associated with relatively large ({\~{}}0.1-0.4 PW) changes in cross-equatorial atmospheric heat transport (AHTEQ). These AHTEQchanges point to changes in cross-equatorial ocean heat transport or net radiative fluxes of the opposite sign. During HS1, the increase in northward AHTEQis large enough to compensate for a partial or total shutdown in northward heat transport by the Atlantic Ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The large AHTEQresponse for small changes in mean ITCZ position places limits on the magnitude of past shifts in the globally averaged ITCZ. Large (≥5°) meridional displacements of the ITCZ inferred from regional compilations of proxy records must be limited in their zonal extent, and ITCZ shifts at other longitudes must be near zero, for the global mean shift to remain ≤1° as suggested by our results. Our examination of model results and modern observations supports variable regional and seasonal changes in ITCZ precipitation. This work thus highlights the importance of a dense network of tropical precipitation reconstructions to document the regional and seasonal heterogeneity of ITCZ responses to past climate changes. {\textcopyright} 2014 Elsevier B.V.},
author = {McGee, David and Donohoe, Aaron and Marshall, John and Ferreira, David},
doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2013.12.043},
issn = {0012821X},
journal = {Earth and Planetary Science Letters},
keywords = {Heat transport,Heinrich events,ITCZ,Last Glacial Maximum,Mid-Holocene},
month = {mar},
pages = {69--79},
title = {{Changes in ITCZ location and cross-equatorial heat transport at the Last Glacial Maximum, Heinrich Stadial 1, and the mid-Holocene}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012821X13007589},
volume = {390},
year = {2014}
}
@article{McGree,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {McGree, Simon and Herold, Nicholas and Alexander, Lisa and Schreider, Sergei and Kuleshov, Yuriy and Ene, Elifaleti and Finaulahi, Selu and Inape, Kasis and Mackenzie, Boyd and Malala, Hans and Ngari, Arona and Prakash, Bipendra and Tahani, Lloyd},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0748.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {16},
pages = {4919--4941},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Recent Changes in Mean and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation in the Western Pacific Islands}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/16/jcli-d-18-0748.1.xml},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{mtsemjc14,
author = {McGregor, Shayne and Timmermann, Axel and Stuecker, Malte F and England, Matthew H and Merrifield, Mark and Jin, Fei-Fei and Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2330},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {888--892},
title = {{Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2330},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@incollection{McGregor2020,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {McGregor, Shayne and Khodri, Myriam and Maher, Nicola and Ohba, Masamichi and Pausata, Francesco S. R. and Stevenson, Samantha},
booktitle = {El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate},
doi = {10.1002/9781119548164.ch12},
editor = {McPhaden, Michael J. and Santoso, Agus and Cai, Wenju},
isbn = {9781119548164},
month = {nov},
pages = {267--287},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},
title = {{The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119548164.ch12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{McKenna2020,
abstract = {Accurately representing the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is crucial for reliable climate predictions and future projections. However, El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD interact, making it necessary to evaluate ENSO and IOD simultaneously. Using the historical simulation from 32 fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models and 34 CMIP6 models, here we find that there are some modest changes in the basic characteristics of the IOD and ENSO from CMIP5 to CMIP6. Firstly, there is a slight shift in the seasonality of IOD toward an earlier peak in September in CMIP6, from November in CMIP5. Secondly, inter-model spread in the frequency of ENSO and the IOD has reduced in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5. ENSO asymmetry is still underestimated in CMIP6, based on the skewness of the Ni{\~{n}}o3 index, while the IOD skewness has degraded from CMIP5. Finally, mean state SST biases impact on the strength of the IOD; the Pacific cold tongue mean state is important in CMIP5, but in CMIP6 the Pacific warm pool mean state is more important.},
author = {McKenna, Sebastian and Santoso, Agus and Gupta, Alexander Sen and Taschetto, Andr{\'{e}}a S. and Cai, Wenju},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-68268-9},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {11500},
title = {{Indian Ocean Dipole in CMIP5 and CMIP6: characteristics, biases, and links to ENSO}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-68268-9},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{McKinnon2018a,
abstract = {Recent observed climate trends result from a combination of external radiative forcing and internally generated variability. To better contextualize these trends and forecast future ones, it is necessary to properly model the spatiotemporal properties of the internal variability. Here, a statistical model is developed for terrestrial temperature and precipitation, and global sea level pressure, based upon monthly gridded observational datasets that span 1921–2014. The model is used to generate a synthetic ensemble, each member of which has a unique sequence of internal variability but with statistical properties similar to the observational record. This synthetic ensemble is combined with estimates of the externally forced response from climate models to produce an observational large ensemble (OBS-LE). The 1000 members of the OBS-LE display considerable diversity in their 50-yr regional climate trends, indicative of the importance of internal variability on multidecadal time scales. For example, unforced atmospheric circulation trends associated with the northern annular mode can induce winter temperature trends over Eurasia that are comparable in magnitude to the forced trend over the past 50 years. Similarly, the contribution of internal variability to winter precipitation trends is large across most of the globe, leading to substantial regional uncertainties in the amplitude and, in some cases, the sign of the 50-yr trend. The OBS-LE provides a real-world counterpart to initial-condition model ensembles. The approach could be expanded to using paleo-proxy data to simulate longer-term variability.},
author = {McKinnon, Karen A. and Deser, Clara},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6783--6802},
title = {{Internal Variability and Regional Climate Trends in an Observational Large Ensemble}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Medlyn2015,
author = {Medlyn, Belinda E. and Zaehle, S{\"{o}}nke and {De Kauwe}, Martin G. and Walker, Anthony P. and Dietze, Michael C. and Hanson, Paul J. and Hickler, Thomas and Jain, Atul K. and Luo, Yiqi and Parton, William and Prentice, I. Colin and Thornton, Peter E. and Wang, Shusen and Wang, Ying-Ping and Weng, Ensheng and Iversen, Colleen M. and McCarthy, Heather R. and Warren, Jeffrey M. and Oren, Ram and Norby, Richard J.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2621},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {528--534},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Using ecosystem experiments to improve vegetation models}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2621 http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2621},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Meehl2016,
author = {Meehl, Gerald A. and Hu, Aixue and Santer, Benjamin D. and Xie, Shang-Ping},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3107},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1005--1008},
title = {{Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3107},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Meixner2016,
abstract = {Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20{\%} in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.},
author = {Meixner, Thomas and Manning, Andrew H. and Stonestrom, David A. and Allen, Diana M. and Ajami, Hoori and Blasch, Kyle W. and Brookfield, Andrea E. and Castro, Christopher L. and Clark, Jordan F. and Gochis, David J. and Flint, Alan L. and Neff, Kirstin L. and Niraula, Rewati and Rodell, Matthew and Scanlon, Bridget R. and Singha, Kamini and Walvoord, Michelle A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.12.027},
isbn = {0022-1694},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Climate change,Groundwater recharge,Recharge mechanisms,Western United States},
month = {mar},
pages = {124--138},
title = {{Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169415009750},
volume = {534},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Mekonnen2016,
abstract = {Freshwater scarcity is increasingly perceived as a global systemic risk. Previous global water scarcity assessments, measuring water scarcity annually, have underestimated experienced water scarcity by failing to capture the seasonal fluctuations in water consumption and availability. We assess blue water scarcity globally at a high spatial resolution on a monthly basis. We find that two-thirds of the global population (4.0 billion people) live under conditions of severe water scarcity at least 1 month of the year. Nearly half of those people live in India and China. Half a billion people in the world face severe water scarcity all year round. Putting caps to water consumption by river basin, increasing water-use efficiencies, and better sharing of the limited freshwater resources will be key in reducing the threat posed by water scarcity on biodiversity and human welfare.},
author = {Mekonnen, Mesfin M and Hoekstra, Arjen Y},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1500323},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
keywords = {Introduction,Section 1,water shortages},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {e1500323},
title = {{Four billion people facing severe water scarcity}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1500323},
volume = {2},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Menonetal.2013,
abstract = {Abstract. The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3) showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models, a consistent increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises. All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to other RCPs. Most of the models show a northward shift in monsoon circulation by the end of the 21st century compared to the historic period under the RCP-8.5 scenario. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends.},
author = {Menon, A. and Levermann, A. and Schewe, J. and Lehmann, J. and Frieler, K.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-4-287-2013},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {2},
pages = {287--300},
title = {{Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/4/287/2013/},
volume = {4},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Meredith2019GRL,
abstract = {Short‐duration, high‐impact precipitation events in the extratropics are invariably convective in nature, typically occur during the summer, and are projected to intensify under climate change. The occurrence of convective precipitation is strongly regulated by the diurnal convective cycle, peaking in the late afternoon. Here we perform very‐high‐resolution (convection‐permitting) regional climate model simulations to study the scaling of extreme precipitation under climate change across the diurnal cycle. We show that the future intensification of extreme precipitation has a strong diurnal signal and that intra‐day scaling far in excess of overall scaling, and indeed thermodynamic expectations, is possible. We additionally show that, under a strong climate change scenario, the probability maximum for the occurrence of heavy to extreme precipitation may shift from late‐afternoon to the overnight/morning period. We further identify the thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms which modify future extreme environments, explaining both the future scaling's diurnal signal and departure from thermodynamic expectations.},
author = {Meredith, Edmund P. and Ulbrich, Uwe and Rust, Henning W.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL082385},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {7680--7689},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The Diurnal Nature of Future Extreme Precipitation Intensification}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL082385 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL082385},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Meredith2019a,
author = {Meredith, M. and M., Sommerkorn and Cassotta, S. and Derksen, C. and Ekaykin, A. and Hollowed, A. and Kofinas, G. and Mackintosh, A. and {Melbourne-Thomas, J. Muelbert}, M.M.C. and Ottersen, G. and Pritchard, H. and Schuur, E.A.G.},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
chapter = {3},
editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {203--320},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Polar Regions}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Merlis2015,
abstract = {Climate models robustly simulate weakened mean circulations of the tropical atmosphere in direct response to increased carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The direct response to CO 2 , defined by the response to radiative forcing in the absence of changes in sea surface temperature, affects tropical precipitation and tropical cyclone genesis, and these changes have been tied to the weakening of the mean tropical circulation. The mechanism underlying this direct CO 2 -forced circulation change has not been elucidated. Here, I demonstrate that this circulation weakening results from spatial structure in CO 2 's radiative forcing. In regions of ascending circulation, such as the intertropical convergence zone, the CO 2 radiative forcing is reduced, or “masked,” by deep-convective clouds and high humidity; in subsiding regions, such as the subtropics, the CO 2 radiative forcing is larger because the atmosphere is drier and deep-convective clouds are infrequent. The spatial structure of the radiative forcing reduces the need for the atmosphere to transport energy. This, in turn, weakens the mass overturning of the tropical circulation. The previously unidentified mechanism is demonstrated in a hierarchy of atmospheric general circulation model simulations with altered radiative transfer to suppress the cloud masking of the radiative forcing. The mechanism depends on the climatological distribution of clouds and humidity, rather than uncertain changes in these quantities. Masked radiative forcing thereby offers an explanation for the robustness of the direct circulation weakening under increased CO 2 .},
author = {Merlis, Timothy M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1508268112},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {43},
pages = {13167--13171},
pmid = {26460034},
title = {{Direct weakening of tropical circulations from masked CO2 radiative forcing}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1508268112},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Metcalfe2015,
abstract = {Evidence for climatic change across the North American Monsoon (NAM) and adjacent areas is reviewed, drawing on continental and marine records and the application of climate models. Patterns of change at 12,000, 9000, 6000 and 4000calyrBP are presented to capture the nature of change from the Younger Dryas (YD) and through the mid-Holocene. At the YD, conditions were cooler overall, wetter in the north and drier in the south, while moving into the Holocene wetter conditions became established in the south and then spread north as the NAM strengthened. Until c. 8000calyrBP, the Laurentide Ice Sheet influenced precipitation in the north by pushing the Bermuda High further south. The peak extent of the NAM seems to have occurred around 6000calyrBP. 4000calyrBP marks the start of important changes across the NAM region, with drying in the north and the establishment of the clear differences between the summer-rain dominated south and central areas and the north, where winter rain is more important. This differentiation between south and north is crucial to understanding many climate responses across the NAM. This increasing variability is coincident with the declining influence of orbital forcing. 4000calyrBP also marks the onset of significant anthropogenic activity in many areas. For the last 2000 years, the focus is on higher temporal resolution change, with strong variations across the region. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is characterised by centennial scale 'megadrought' across the southwest USA, associated with cooler tropical Pacific SSTs and persistent La Ni{\~{n}}a type conditions. Proxy data from southern Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean reveal generally wetter conditions, whereas records from the highlands of central Mexico and much of the Yucatan are typified by long -term drought. The Little Ice Age (LIA), in the north, was characterised by cooler, wetter winter conditions that have been linked with increased frequency of El Ni{\~{n}}o's. Proxy records in the central and southern regions reveal generally dry LIA conditions, consistent with cooler SSTs in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. This synthesis demonstrates that in some periods, one major forcing can dominate across the whole area (e.g. insolation in the early-mid Holocene), but at other times there is strong variability in patterns of change due to the differential impact of forcings such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on precipitation seasonality.},
author = {Metcalfe, Sarah E. and Barron, John A. and Davies, Sarah J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.04.004},
isbn = {0277-3791},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
keywords = {Climate modelling,Forcings,Holocene,North American Monsoon (NAM),Seasonality},
pages = {1--27},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{The Holocene history of the North American Monsoon: ‘known knowns' and ‘known unknowns' in understanding its spatial and temporal complexity}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.04.004},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Michaelis2017,
abstract = {The present study investigates changes in the location, frequency, intensity, and dynamical processes of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones with warming consistent with the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The modeling, analysis, and prediction (MAP) climatology of midlatitude storminess (MCMS) feature-tracking algorithm was utilized to analyze 10 cold-season high-resolution atmospheric simulations over the North Atlantic region in current and future climates. Enhanced extratropical cyclone activity is most evident in the northeast North Atlantic and off the U.S. East Coast. These changes in cyclone activity are offset from changes in eddy kinetic energy and eddy heat flux. Investigation of the minimum SLP reached at each grid point reveals a lack of correspondence between the strongest events in the current and future simulations, indicating the future simulations produced a different population of storms. Examination of the percent change of storms in the storm-track region shows a reduction in the number of strong storms (i.e., those reaching a minimum SLP perturbation of at least -51 hPa). Storm-relative composites of strong and moderate storms show an increase in precipitation, associated with enhanced latent heat release and strengthening of the 900-700-hPa layer-average potential vorticity (PV). Other structural changes found for cyclones in a future climate include weakened upper-level PV for strong storms and a weakened near-surface potential temperature anomaly for moderate storms, demonstrating a change in storm dynamics. Furthermore, the impacts associated with extratropical cyclones, such as strong near-surface winds and heavy precipitation, strengthen and become more frequent with warming.},
author = {Michaelis, Allison C. and Willison, Jeff and Lackmann, Gary M. and Robinson, Walter A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0697.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere,Climate change,Extratropical cyclones,North Atlantic Ocean},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6905--6925},
title = {{Changes in winter North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in high-resolution regional pseudo–global warming simulations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0697.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Micklin2016,
abstract = {The Aral Sea in 1960 was a huge brackish water lake (4th in the world in surface area) lying amidst the deserts of Central Asia. The sea supported a major fishery and functioned as a key regional transportation route. Since 1960, the Aral has undergone rapid desiccation and salinization, overwhelmingly the result of unsustainable expansion of irrigation that dried up its two tributary rivers the Amu Darya and Syr Darya and severely damaged their deltas. The desiccation of the Aral Sea has had severe negative impacts, including, among others, the demise of commercial fishing, devastation of the floral and faunal biodiversity of the native ecosystems of the Syr and Amu deltas, and increased frequency and strength of salt/dust storms. However, efforts have been and are being made to partially restore the sea's hydrology along with its biodiversity, and economic value. The northern part of the Aral has been separated from the southern part by a dike and dam, leading to a level rise and lower salinity. This allowed native fishes to return from the rivers and revitalized the fishing industry. Partial preservation of the Western Basin of the southern Aral Sea may be possible, but these plans need much further environmental and economic analysis. This paper, mainly utilizing hydrologic and other data as input to spreadsheet (Microsoft Excel)-based hydrologic and salinity models, examines the current efforts to restore the Aral and looks at several future scenarios of the Sea. It also delineates the most important lessons of the Aral Sea's drying.},
author = {Micklin, Philip},
doi = {10.1007/s12665-016-5614-5},
issn = {18666299},
journal = {Environmental Earth Sciences},
keywords = {Amu,Aral Sea,Irrigation,Large Aral Sea,Small Aral Sea,Syr,Water balance models},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {1--15},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{The future Aral Sea: hope and despair}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-016-5614-5},
volume = {75},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Mileham2009,
author = {Mileham, Lucinda and Taylor, Richard G. and Tood, Martin and Tindimugaya, Callist and Thompson, Julian},
doi = {10.1623/hysj.54.4.727},
issn = {0262-6667},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {727--738},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a humid, equatorial catchment: sensitivity of projections to rainfall intensity}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.4.727},
volume = {54},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Milly2016,
abstract = {By various measures (drought area1 and intensity2 , climatic aridity index3 , and climatic water deficits4 ), some observa- tional analyses have suggested that much of the Earth's land has been drying during recent decades, but such drying seems inconsistent with observations of dryland green- ing and decreasing pan evaporation5 . ‘Offline' analyses of climate-model outputs from anthropogenic climate change (ACC) experiments portend continuation of putative drying through the twenty-first century3,6–10 , despite an expected increase in global land precipitation9 . A ubiquitous increase in estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET), driven by atmospheric warming11 , underlies the drying trends4,8,9,12 , but may be a methodological artefact5 . Here we show that the PET estimator commonly used (the Penman–Monteith PET13 for either an open-water surface1,2,6,7,12 or a reference crop3,4,8,9,11 ) severely overpredicts the changes in non-water- stressed evapotranspiration computed in the climate models themselvesinACCexperiments.Thisoverpredictionispartially due to neglect of stomatal conductance reductions commonly induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in climate models5 . Our findings imply that historical and future tendencies towards continental drying, as characterized by offline-computed runoff, as well as other PET-dependent metrics, may be considerably weaker and less extensive than previously thought},
annote = {historical and future tendencies towards continental drying may be considerably weaker and less extensive than previously thought due to neglect of stomatal conductance reductions in response to rising CO2.},
author = {Milly, P.C.D. and Dunne, K. A.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3046},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {ET},
month = {jun},
number = {10},
pages = {946--949},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3046},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Milly2020,
abstract = {The sensitivity of river discharge to climate-system warming is highly uncertain, and the processes that govern river discharge are poorly understood, which impedes climate-change adaptation. A prominent exemplar is the Colorado River, where meteorological drought and warming are shrinking a water resource that supports more than 1 trillion dollars of economic activity per year. A Monte Carlo simulation with a radiation-aware hydrologic model resolves the longstanding, wide disparity in sensitivity estimates and reveals the controlling physical processes. We estimate that annual mean discharge has been decreasing by 9.3{\%} per degree Celsius of warming because of increased evapotranspiration, mainly driven by snow loss and a consequent decrease in reflection of solar radiation. Projected precipitation increases likely will not suffice to fully counter the robust, thermodynamically induced drying. Thus, an increasing risk of severe water shortages is expected.},
author = {Milly, P. C. D. and Dunne, K. A.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aay9187},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {mar},
number = {6483},
pages = {1252--1255},
title = {{Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aay9187},
volume = {367},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Milner2017,
abstract = {Glaciers cover ∼10{\%} of the Earth's land surface, but they are shrinking rapidly across most parts of the world, leading to cascading impacts on downstream systems. Glaciers impart unique footprints on river flow at times when other water sources are low. Changes in river hydrology and morphology caused by climate-induced glacier loss are projected to be the greatest of any hydrological system, with major implications for riverine and near-shore marine environments. Here, we synthesize current evidence of how glacier shrinkage will alter hydrological regimes, sediment transport, and biogeochemical and contaminant fluxes from rivers to oceans. This will profoundly influence the natural environment, including many facets of biodiversity, and the ecosystem services that glacier-fed rivers provide to humans, particularly provision of water for agriculture, hydropower, and consumption. We conclude that human society must plan adaptation and mitigation measures for the full breadth of impacts in all affected regions caused by glacier shrinkage.},
author = {Milner, Alexander M and Khamis, Kieran and Battin, Tom J and Brittain, John E and Barrand, Nicholas E and F{\"{u}}reder, Leopold and Cauvy-Frauni{\'{e}}, Sophie and G{\'{i}}slason, G{\'{i}}sli M{\'{a}}r and Jacobsen, Dean and Hannah, David M and Hodson, Andrew J and Hood, Eran and Lencioni, Valeria and {\'{O}}lafsson, J{\'{o}}n S and Robinson, Christopher T and Tranter, Martyn and Brown, Lee E},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1619807114},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {37},
pages = {9770--9778},
title = {{Glacier shrinkage driving global changes in downstream systems}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/114/37/9770.abstract http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1619807114},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mindlin2020a,
abstract = {As evidence of climate change strengthens, knowledge of its regional implications becomes an urgent need for decision making. Current understanding of regional precipitation changes is substantially limited by our understanding of the atmos-pheric circulation response to climate change, which to a high degree remains uncertain. This uncertainty is reflected in the wide spread in atmospheric circulation changes projected in multimodel ensembles, which cannot be directly interpreted in a probabilistic sense. The uncertainty can instead be represented by studying a discrete set of physically plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation changes. By mining CMIP5 model output, here we take this broader perspective and develop storylines for Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude circulation changes, conditioned on the degree of global-mean warm-ing, based on the climate responses of two remote drivers: the enhanced warming of the tropical upper troposphere and the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. For the three continental domains in the SH, we analyse the precipitation changes under each storyline. To allow comparison with previous studies, we also link both circulation and precipita-tion changes with those of the Southern Annular Mode. Our results show that the response to tropical warming leads to a strengthening of the midlatitude westerly winds, whilst the response to a delayed breakdown (for DJF) or strengthening (for JJA) of the stratospheric vortex leads to a poleward shift of the westerly winds and the storm tracks. However, the circula-tion response is not zonally symmetric and the regional precipitation storylines for South America, South Africa, South of Australia and New Zealand exhibit quite specific dependencies on the two remote drivers, which are not well represented by changes in the Southern Annular Mode.},
author = {Mindlin, Julia and Shepherd, Theodore G. and Vera, Carolina S. and Osman, Marisol and Zappa, Giuseppe and Lee, Robert W. and Hodges, Kevin I.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05234-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Climate change,Midlatitude precipitation,Southern Hemisphere,Storylines,Stratospheric polar vortex},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {4399--4421},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Storyline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05234-1},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Miralles2014,
author = {Miralles, Diego G. and van den Berg, Martinus J. and Gash, John H. and Parinussa, Robert M. and de Jeu, Richard A. M. and Beck, Hylke E. and Holmes, Thomas R. H. and Jim{\'{e}}nez, Carlos and Verhoest, Niko E. C. and Dorigo, Wouter A. and Teuling, Adriaan J. and {Johannes Dolman}, A.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2068},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {122--126},
title = {{El Ni{\~{n}}o–La Ni{\~{n}}a cycle and recent trends in continental evaporation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2068},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Miralles2019,
abstract = {Abstract Droughts and heatwaves cause agricultural loss, forest mortality, and drinking water scarcity, especially when they occur simultaneously as combined events. Their predicted increase in recurrence and intensity poses serious threats to future food security. Still today, the knowledge of how droughts and heatwaves start and evolve remains limited, and so does our understanding of how climate change may affect them. Droughts and heatwaves have been suggested to intensify and propagate via land?atmosphere feedbacks. However, a global capacity to observe these processes is still lacking, and climate and forecast models are immature when it comes to representing the influences of land on temperature and rainfall. Key open questions remain in our goal to uncover the real importance of these feedbacks: What is the impact of the extreme meteorological conditions on ecosystem evaporation? How do these anomalies regulate the atmospheric boundary layer state (event self-intensification) and contribute to the inflow of heat and moisture to other regions (event self-propagation)? Can this knowledge on the role of land feedbacks, when available, be exploited to develop geo-engineering mitigation strategies that prevent these events from aggravating during their early stages? The goal of our perspective is not to present a convincing answer to these questions, but to assess the scientific progress to date, while highlighting new and innovative avenues to keep advancing our understanding in the future.},
annote = {doi: 10.1111/nyas.13912},
author = {Miralles, Diego G and Gentine, Pierre and Seneviratne, Sonia I and Teuling, Adriaan J},
doi = {10.1111/nyas.13912},
issn = {0077-8923},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {drought,heatwave,land feedback,land–atmospheric interactions},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {19--35},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Land–atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13912},
volume = {1436},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Miralles2014a,
abstract = {"The recent European mega-heatwaves of 2003 and 2010 broke" "temperature records across Europe1–5 . Although events of this magnitude were unprecedented from a historical perspective, they are expected to become common by the end of the century6,7 . However, our understanding of extreme heatwave events is limited and their representation in climate models remains imperfect8 . Here we investigate the physical processes underlying recent mega-heatwaves using satellite and balloon measurements of land and atmospheric conditions from the summers of 2003 in France and 2010 in Russia, in combination with a soil–water–atmosphere model. We find that, in both events, persistent atmospheric pressure patterns induced land–atmosphere feedbacks that led to extreme temperatures. During daytime, heat was supplied by large-scale horizontal advection, warming of an increasingly desiccated land surface and enhanced entrainment of warm air into the atmospheric boundary layer. Overnight, the heat generated during the day was preserved in an anomalous kilometres-deep atmospheric layer located several hundred metres above the surface, available to re-enter the atmospheric boundary layer during the next diurnal cycle. This resulted in a progressive accumulation of heat over several days, which enhanced soil desiccation and led to further escalation in air temperatures. Our findings suggest that the extreme temperatures in mega-heatwaves can be explained by the combined multi-day memory of the land surface and the atmospheric boundary layer."},
author = {Miralles, Diego G. and Teuling, Adriaan J. and {Van Heerwaarden}, Chiel C. and {De Arellano}, Jordi Vil{\`{a}} Guerau},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2141},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {345--349},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2141 http://10.0.4.14/ngeo2141 https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2141{\#}supplementary-information},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Miralles2016,
abstract = {The WACMOS-ET project aims to advance the development of land evaporation estimates at global and regional scales. Its main objective is the derivation, validation and inter-comparison of a group of existing evaporation retrieval algorithms driven by a common forcing data set. Three commonly used process-based evaporation methodologies are evaluated: the Penman–Monteith algorithm behind the official Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) evaporation product (PM-MOD), the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), and the Priestley and Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory model (PT-JPL). The resulting global spatiotemporal variability of evaporation, the closure of regional water budgets and the discrete estimation of land evaporation components or sources (i.e. transpiration, interception loss and direct soil evaporation) are investigated using river discharge data, independent global evaporation data sets and results from previous studies. In a companion article (Part 1), Michel et al. (2015) inspect the performance of these three models at local scales using measurements from eddy-covariance towers, and include the assessment the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. In agreement with Part 1, our results here indicate that the Priestley and Taylor based products (PT-JPL and GLEAM) perform overall best for most ecosystems and climate regimes. While all three products adequately represent the expected average geographical patterns and seasonality, there is a tendency from PM-MOD to underestimate the flux in the tropics and subtropics. Overall, results from GLEAM and PT-JPL appear more realistic when compared against surface water balances from 837 globally-distributed catchments, and against separate evaporation estimates from ERA-Interim and the Model Tree Ensemble (MTE). Nonetheless, all products manifest large dissimilarities during conditions of water stress and drought, and deficiencies in the way evaporation is partitioned into its different components. This observed inter-product variability, even when common forcing is used, implies caution in applying a single data set for large-scale studies in isolation. A general finding that different models perform better under different conditions highlights the potential for considering biome- or climate-specific composites of models. Yet, the generation of a multi-product ensemble, with weighting based on validation analyses and uncertainty assessments, is proposed as the best way forward in our long-term goal to develop a robust observational benchmark data set of continental evaporation.},
author = {Miralles, D. G. and Jim{\'{e}}nez, C. and Jung, M. and Michel, D. and Ershadi, A. and Mccabe, M. F. and Hirschi, M. and Martens, B. and Dolman, A. J. and Fisher, J. B. and Mu, Q. and Seneviratne, S. I. and Wood, E. F. and Fern{\'{a}}ndez-Prieto, D.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-20-823-2016},
isbn = {1812-2116},
issn = {16077938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {2},
pages = {823--842},
title = {{The WACMOS-ET project – Part 2: Evaluation of global terrestrial evaporation data sets}},
volume = {20},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Mishra2020,
abstract = {Intensive irrigation in India has been demonstrated to decrease surface temperature, but the influence of irrigation on humidity and extreme moist heat stress is not well understood. Here we analysed a combination of in situ and satellite-based datasets and conducted meteorological model simulations to show that irrigation modulates extreme moist heat. We found that intensive irrigation in the region cools the land surface by 1 °C and the air by 0.5 °C. However, the decreased sensible heat flux due to irrigation reduces the planetary boundary layer height, which increases low-level moist enthalpy. Thus, irrigation increases the specific and relative humidity, which raises the moist heat stress metrics. Intense irrigation over the region results in increased moist heat stress in India, Pakistan, and parts of Afghanistan—affecting about 37–46 million people in South Asia—despite a cooler land surface. We suggest that heat stress projections in India and other regions dominated by semi-arid and monsoon climates that do not include the role of irrigation overestimate the benefits of irrigation on dry heat stress and underestimate the risks.},
author = {Mishra, Vimal and Ambika, Anukesh Krishnankutty and Asoka, Akarsh and Aadhar, Saran and Buzan, Jonathan and Kumar, Rohini and Huber, Matthew},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-020-00650-8},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {11},
pages = {722--728},
title = {{Moist heat stress extremes in India enhanced by irrigation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00650-8},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Mishra2012,
author = {Mishra, V. and Smoliak, B. V. and Lettenmaier, D. P. and Wallace, J. M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1119150109},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {19},
pages = {7213--7217},
title = {{A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1119150109},
volume = {109},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Mohtadi2016,
abstract = {Monsoons are the dominant seasonal mode of climate variability in the tropics and are critically important conveyors of atmospheric moisture and energy at a global scale. Predicting monsoons, which have profound impacts on regions that are collectively home to more than 70 per cent of Earth's population, is a challenge that is difficult to overcome by relying on instrumental data from only the past few decades. Palaeoclimatic evidence of monsoon rainfall dynamics across different regions and timescales could help us to understand and predict the sensitivity and response of monsoons to various forcing mechanisms. This evidence suggests that monsoon systems exhibit substantial regional character.},
author = {Mohtadi, Mahyar and Prange, Matthias and Steinke, Stephan},
doi = {10.1038/nature17450},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {may},
number = {7602},
pages = {191--199},
title = {{Palaeoclimatic insights into forcing and response of monsoon rainfall}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature17450},
volume = {533},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Moise2020,
abstract = {Abstract Indices derived from daily rainfall time series are used to measure ?burst? features of the northern Australia monsoon, corresponding to one or more days of heavy rainfall. These indices include number of burst days, numbers and durations of burst events, and average intensity. The results using observational data show how these features can vary from one year to the next, and how they can vary from the station scale (Darwin) to the regional scale (northern Australia). The results from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations under both historical and future greenhouse gas conditions have also been analysed and indicate how well models can capture these features and how they might change by the end of the 21st century under a high emissions scenario. While most models provide a reasonable simulation of present-day burst features, there is little consensus for a significant change to seasonal rainfall totals when looking at the full CMIP5 ensemble. A subset of models with detectable skills with respect to the Madden-Julian Oscillation shows evidence for an increase in the seasonal total rainfall amount and most other monsoon metrics, except a slight decrease in the number of burst events. This is consistent with a basic thermodynamic response to warming and consistent with findings elsewhere. However, the Australian monsoon is strongly influenced by the large-scale circulation and there remains some doubt about whether we can confidently diagnose all the changes to monsoon bursts that could occur given the limited ability of many of the current generation of models to simulate tropical cyclones, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and other relevant features.},
author = {Moise, Aurel and Smith, Ian and Brown, Josephine R. and Colman, Robert and Narsey, Sugata},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6334},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {climate models,monsoon,variability},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {2310--2327},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Observed and projected intra-seasonal variability of Australian monsoon rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6334},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Molina-Carpio2017,
abstract = {Rising in the Andes, the Madeira River drains the southwestern part of the Amazon basin, which is characterized by high geographical, biological and climatic diversity. This study uses daily records to assess the spatio-temporal runoff variability in the Madeira sub-basins. Results show that inter-annual variability of both discharge and rainfall differs between Andean and lowland tributaries. High-flow discharge variability in the Andean tributaries and the Guapor{\'{e}} River is mostly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific in austral summer, while tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST modulates rainfall and discharge variability in the lowlands. There also is a downward trend in the low-flow discharge of the lowland tributaries which is not observed in the Andes. Because low-flow discharge values at most lowland stations are negatively related to the SST in the tropical North Atlantic, these trends could be explained by the warming of this ocean since the 1970s.},
author = {Molina-Carpio, Jorge and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Vauchel, Philippe and Ronchail, Josyane and {Gutierrez Caloir}, Beatriz and Guyot, Jean Loup and Noriega, Luis},
doi = {10.1080/02626667.2016.1267861},
issn = {21503435},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
keywords = {Amazon basin,Madeira River,runoff trend,runoff variability,sea surface temperature},
number = {6},
pages = {911--927},
title = {{Hydroclimatology of the Upper Madeira River basin: spatio-temporal variability and trends}},
volume = {62},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mollier-Vogel2013,
abstract = {We present a high-resolution marine record of sediment input from the Guayas River, Ecuador, that reflects changes in precipitation along western equatorial South America during the last 18ka. We use log (Ti/Ca) derived from X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) to document terrigenous input from riverine runoff that integrates rainfall from the Guayas River catchment. We find that rainfall-induced riverine runoff has increased during the Holocene and decreased during the last deglaciation. Superimposed on those long-term trends, we find that rainfall was probably slightly increased during the Younger Dryas, while the Heinrich event 1 was marked by an extreme load of terrigenous input, probably reflecting one of the wettest period over the time interval studied. When we compare our results to other Deglacial to Holocene rainfall records located across the tropical South American continent, different modes of variability become apparent. The records of rainfall variability imply that changes in the hydrological cycle at orbital and sub-orbital timescales were different from western to eastern South America. Orbital forcing caused an antiphase behavior in rainfall trends between eastern and western equatorial South America. In contrast, millennial-scale rainfall changes, remotely connected to the North Atlantic climate variability, led to homogenously wetter conditions over eastern and western equatorial South America during North Atlantic cold spells. These results may provide helpful diagnostics for testing the regional rainfall sensitivity in climate models and help to refine rainfall projections in South America for the next century. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier Ltd.},
author = {Mollier-Vogel, Elfi and Leduc, Guillaume and B{\"{o}}schen, Tebke and Martinez, Philippe and Schneider, Ralph R.},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.06.021},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
keywords = {Deglaciation,Heinrich 1,Holocene,ITCZ,Speleothem,XRF,Younger Dryas},
pages = {29--38},
title = {{Rainfall response to orbital and millennial forcing in northern Peru over the last 18ka}},
volume = {76},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Molnar_2015,
abstract = {Extreme precipitation is thought to increase proportionally to the rise in the water vapor holding capacity of the air at roughly 7{\%} °C−1, the so called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate. We present an empirical study of the variability in the rates of increase in precipitation intensity with air temperature using 30 yr of hourly data from 50 stations in an Alpine environment. The analysis is conducted on storm events rather than fixed time resolutions, and divided into event subsets based on concurrent lightning strikes indicating the presence of convection. The average rates of increase in mean event intensity (7.4{\%} °C−1) and peak hourly intensity (5.1{\%} °C−1) for 90th percentiles are close to the CC rate expected under fully saturated conditions. Super-CC rates reported by other studies are an exception in our dataset. Events accompanied by lightning (convective events) exhibit significantly higher rates of increase than stratiform rain. Mixing of the two storm types exaggerates the relations to air temperature. The large spatial variability in scaling rates across Switzerland suggests that both local (orographic) and regional effects limit moisture availability and supply in Alpine environments especially in mountain valleys. A trend analysis shows that our estimate of the number of convective events across Switzerland has steadily increased in the last 30 yr. This significant shift towards more convective storms in a warming climate may as a consequence lead to stronger storm intensities and therefore higher risk connected with those events.},
author = {Molnar, P. and Fatichi, S. and Ga{\'{a}}l, L. and Szolgay, J. and Burlando, P.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-19-1753-2015},
isbn = {1189232014},
issn = {16077938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
keywords = {thermo},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1753--1766},
publisher = {Copernicus {\{}GmbH{\}}},
title = {{Storm type effects on super Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of intense rainstorm properties with air temperature}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194{\%}2Fhess-19-1753-2015},
volume = {19},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Monerie2020,
abstract = {The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation suffers from large uncertainties and is strongly model-dependent. In this study, we analyse sources of inter-model spread in Sahel precipitation change by decomposing precipitation into its dynamic and thermodynamic terms, using a large set of climate model simulations. Results highlight that model uncertainty is mostly related to the response of the atmospheric circulation to climate change (dynamic changes), while thermodynamic changes are less uncertain among climate models. Uncertainties arise mainly because the models simulate different shifts in atmospheric circulation over West Africa in a warmer climate. We linked the changes in atmospheric circulation to the changes in Sea Surface Temperature, emphasising that the Northern hemispheric temperature gradient is primary to explain uncertainties in Sahel precipitation change. Sources of Sahel precipitation uncertainties are shown to be the same in the new generation of climate models (CMIP6) as in the previous generation of models (CMIP5).},
author = {Monerie, Paul-Arthur and Wainwright, Caroline M and Sidibe, Moussa and Akinsanola, Akintomide Afolayan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1385--1401},
title = {{Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0 https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0},
volume = {55},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Moomaw2018,
abstract = {Part 1 of this review synthesizes recent research on status and climate vulnerability of freshwater and saltwater wetlands, and their contribution to addressing climate change (carbon cycle, adaptation, resilience). Peatlands and vegetated coastal wetlands are among the most carbon rich sinks on the planet sequestering approximately as much carbon as do global forest ecosystems. Estimates of the consequences of rising temperature on current wetland carbon storage and future carbon sequestration potential are summarized. We also demonstrate the need to prevent drying of wetlands and thawing of permafrost by disturbances and rising temperatures to protect wetland carbon stores and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services. Preventing further wetland loss is found to be important in limiting future emissions to meet climate goals, but is seldom considered. In Part 2, the paper explores the policy and management realm from international to national, subnational and local levels to identify strategies and policies reflecting an integrated understanding of both wetland and climate change science. Specific recommendations are made to capture synergies between wetlands and carbon cycle management, adaptation and resiliency to further enable researchers, policy makers and practitioners to protect wetland carbon and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services.},
author = {Moomaw, William R. and Chmura, G. L. and Davies, Gillian T. and Finlayson, C. M. and Middleton, B. A. and Natali, Susan M. and Perry, J. E. and Roulet, N. and Sutton-Grier, Ariana E.},
doi = {10.1007/s13157-018-1023-8},
issn = {0277-5212},
journal = {Wetlands},
keywords = {Carbon in wetlands,Carbon sink and sources,Climate adaptation,Climate change,Climate impacts on wetlands,Climate resiliency,Coastal wetland carbon,Coastal wetlands,Global Carbon cycle,Greenhouse gasses and wetlands,Inland wetlands carbon,Northern peatlands,Peatland carbon,Permafrost,Wetland conservation,Wetland protection,Wetland restoration,Wetland soils,Wetlands and climate policy},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {183--205},
title = {{Wetlands In a Changing Climate: Science, Policy and Management}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13157-018-1023-8},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Moon2019GRL,
abstract = {Soil moisture‐precipitation feedbacks in a large ensemble of global climate model simulations are evaluated. A set of three metrics is used to assess the sensitivity of afternoon rainfall occurrence to morning soil moisture in terms of their spatial, temporal and heterogeneity characteristics. Positive (negative) spatial feedback indicates that the afternoon rainfall occurs more frequently over wetter (drier) land surface than its surroundings. Positive (negative) temporal feedback indicates preference over temporally wetter (drier) conditions and positive (negative) heterogeneity feedback indicates preference over more spatially heterogeneous (homogeneous) soil moisture conditions. We confirm previous results highlighting a dominantly positive spatial feedback in the models as opposed to observations. On average, models tend to agree better with observations for temporal and heterogeneity feedback characteristics, although inter‐model variability is largest for these metrics. The collective influence of the three feedbacks suggests that they may lead to more localized precipitation persistence in models than in observations.},
annote = {Inaccurate positive soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks in climate models might contribute to unrealistic localized daily precipitation persistence},
author = {Moon, Heewon and Guillod, Benoit P. and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL080879},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Global climate Soil ‐ feedback,Subdaily },
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1861--1869},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Soil Moisture Effects on Afternoon Precipitation Occurrence in Current Climate Models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL080879 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080879},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Moon2019,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Nature, Published online: 05 June 2019; {\textless}a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1222-3"{\textgreater}doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1222-3{\textless}/a{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}Climate change and tropical cyclone trend},
author = {Moon, Il Ju and Kim, Sung Hun and Chan, Johnny C.L.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1222-3},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7759},
pages = {E3--E5},
title = {{Climate change and tropical cyclone trend}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1222-3},
volume = {570},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Moon2020,
author = {Moon, Suyeon and Ha, Kyung-Ja},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-020-00151-w},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {Climate and Atmospheric Science},
number = {45},
pages = {1--7},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation using CMIP6}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00151-w},
volume = {3},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Moore2013,
author = {Moore, G. W. K. and Renfrew, I. A. and Pickart, R. S.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00023.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2453--2466},
title = {{Multidecadal Mobility of the North Atlantic Oscillation}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00023.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Morales2012,
author = {Morales, Mariano S. and Christie, Duncan A. and Villalba, Ricardo and Argollo, Jaime and Pacajes, J. and Silva, J. S. and Alvarez, J.A. and Llancabure, J.C. and {Soliz Gamboa}, Claudia},
doi = {10.5194/cp-8-653-2012},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
pages = {653--666},
title = {{Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings}},
volume = {8},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Morales2020,
abstract = {South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.},
author = {Morales, Mariano S. and Cook, Edward R. and Barichivich, Jonathan and Christie, Duncan A. and Villalba, Ricardo and LeQuesne, Carlos and Srur, Ana M. and Ferrero, M. Eugenia and Gonz{\'{a}}lez-Reyes, {\'{A}}lvaro and Couvreux, Fleur and Matskovsky, Vladimir and Aravena, Juan C. and Lara, Antonio and Mundo, Ignacio A. and Rojas, Facundo and Prieto, Mar{\'{i}}a R. and Smerdon, Jason E. and Bianchi, Lucas O. and Masiokas, Mariano H. and Urrutia-Jalabert, Rocio and Rodriguez-Cat{\'{o}}n, Milagros and Mu{\~{n}}oz, Ariel A. and Rojas-Badilla, Moises and Alvarez, Claudio and Lopez, Lidio and Luckman, Brian H. and Lister, David and Harris, Ian and Jones, Philip D. and Williams, A. Park and Velazquez, Gonzalo and Aliste, Diego and Aguilera-Betti, Isabella and Marcotti, Eugenia and Flores, Felipe and Mu{\~{n}}oz, Tom{\'{a}}s and Cuq, Emilio and Boninsegna, Jos{\'{e}} A.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2002411117},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Drought atlas,Extreme hydroclimate events,Palaeoclimate reconstruction,South America hydroclimate,Southern Hemisphere climate modes},
month = {jul},
number = {29},
pages = {16816--16823},
pmid = {32632003},
title = {{Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.2002411117},
volume = {117},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Morrill2018,
abstract = {During the last glacial period, precipitation minus evaporation increased across the currently arid western United States. These pluvial conditions have been commonly explained for decades by a southward deflection of the jet stream by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Here analysis of state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate models shows that effects of the Laurentide Ice Sheet on the mean circulation were more important than storm track changes in generating wet conditions. Namely, strong cooling by the ice sheet significantly reduced humidity over land, increasing moisture advection in the westerlies due to steepened humidity gradients. Additionally, the removal of moisture from the atmosphere by mass divergence associated with the subtropical high was diminished at the Last Glacial Maximum compared to present. These same dynamic and thermodynamic factors, working in the opposite direction, are projected to cause regional drying in western North America under increased greenhouse gas concentrations, indicating continuity from past to future in the mechanisms altering hydroclimate.},
author = {Morrill, Carrie and Lowry, Daniel P. and Hoell, Andrew},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075807},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Laurentide Ice Sheet,lake level records,precipitation-evaporation,storm tracks,subtropical high,westerlies},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {335--345},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Thermodynamic and Dynamic Causes of Pluvial Conditions During the Last Glacial Maximum in Western North America}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075807},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{mote2018dramatic,
author = {Mote, Philip W and Li, Sihan and Lettenmaier, Dennis P and Xiao, Mu and Engel, Ruth},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-018-0012-1},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {2},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0012-1},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mote2016,
abstract = {Augmenting previous papers about the exceptional 2011–2015 California drought, we offer new perspectives on the “snow drought” that extended into Oregon in 2014 and Washington in 2015. Over 80{\%} of measurement sites west of 115°W experienced record low snowpack in 2015, and we estimate a return period of 400–1000 years for California's snowpack under the questionable assumption of stationarity. Hydrologic modeling supports the conclusion that 2015 was the most severe on record by a wide margin. Using a crowd-sourced superensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that both human influence and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies contributed strongly to the risk of snow drought in Oregon and Washington: the contribution of SST anomalies was about twice that of human influence. By contrast, SSTs and humans appear to have played a smaller role in creating California's snow drought. In all three states, the anthropogenic effect on temperature exacerbated the snow drought. 1.},
author = {Mote, Philip W. and Rupp, David E. and Li, Sihan and Sharp, Darrin J. and Otto, Friederike and Uhe, Peter F. and Xiao, Mu and Lettenmaier, Dennis P. and Cullen, Heidi and Allen, Myles R.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL069965},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {attribution,drought,regional climate model,snow drought,superensemble,weather@home},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {10980--10988},
title = {{Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069965},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Muchan2015Weather,
abstract = {Throughout the winter of 2013/2014, a succession of vigorous low pressure systems crossed the UK. This resulted in the wettest winter on record for the UK (since records began in 1910), by a considerable margin, and the stormiest for the UK and Ireland (Matthews et al., 2014). The persistent heavy rainfall, combined with strong winds, high tides and storm surge conditions, severely impacted many parts of the country. The winter was distinctive for the occurrence of multiple types of flooding. Pluvial, fluvial, groundwater and coastal flooding all affected the UK, sometimes simultaneously, although the relative importance of these sources of flooding varied geographically and over the course of the winter. The winter was also notable for the exceptional duration of flooding and the high profile that the severe weather impacts commanded. From late December until late February, flooding was at the forefront of the media spotlight and received a high level of public and political attention. This paper outlines the hydrological aspects of the 2013/2014 winter flooding in the UK, as well as the impacts. The episode is considered in a long‐term historical context and wider issues raised by the flood events are discussed briefly. Companion papers focus on the meteorological characteristics (Kendon and McCarthy, 2015) and coastal dimensions (Sibley et al., 2015) of the winter storms. Taken together, these papers provide a comprehensive overview of the winter weather patterns and their impacts on the UK.},
annote = {Example of persistent storms and associated flooding on larger rivers},
author = {Muchan, Katie and Lewis, Melinda and Hannaford, Jamie and Parry, Simon},
doi = {10.1002/wea.2469},
journal = {Weather},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {55--61},
publisher = {Wiley},
title = {{The winter storms of 2013/2014 in the UK: hydrological responses and impacts}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2Fwea.2469},
volume = {70},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Mudryk2020a,
abstract = {This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981-2018 are negative in all months and exceed-50 × 103 km2 yr-1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately-5 Gtyr-1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981-2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981-2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8 {\%} relative to the 1995-2014 level per degree Celsius of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast-response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near-surface permafrost extent.},
author = {Mudryk, Lawrence R. and Santolaria-Ot{\'{i}}n, Mar{\'{i}}a and Krinner, Gerhard and M{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}goz, Martin and Derksen, Chris and Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire and Brady, Mike and Essery, Richard},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {2495--2514},
title = {{Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/2495/2020/},
volume = {14},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Mudryk2017,
abstract = {The relationship between land surface temperature and snow cover extent trends is examined in three distinct types of ensembles over the 1981–2010 period: an observation-based ensemble, a representative selection of CMIP5 coupled climate model output, and two large initial condition coupled climate model ensembles. Observation-based estimates of snow cover sensitivity are stronger than simulated over midlatitude and alpine regions. Observed sensitivity estimates over Arctic regions are consistent with simulated values. Anomalous snow cover extend trends present in one data set, the NOAA climate record, obscure the relationship to surface temperature seen in the rest of the analyzed data. The spread in modeled snow cover trends reflects roughly equal contributions from intermodel variability and from natural variability. Together, the anomalous relationship between surface temperature and snow cover expressed in the NOAA climate record and the large influence of natural variability present in the simulations highlight the importance of ensemble-based approaches.},
author = {Mudryk, L. R. and Kushner, P. J. and Derksen, C. and Thackeray, C.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071789},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate sensitivity,climate variability,snow cover},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {919--926},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Snow cover response to temperature in observational and climate model ensembles}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016GL071789},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mueller2016,
abstract = {The amount of soil moisture affects water availability, the occurrence of droughts and floods, and the frequency and intensity of heat waves in many regions across the globe. Here, we evaluate historical trends in soil moisture estimated by land-surface models (LSMs) with observed atmospheric forcing and trends simulated by global climate models participating in the Coupled Models Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We classify northern hemispheric land into wet and dry regions and analyze soil moisture changes in these regions. We find a significant decrease in soil moisture from 1951 to 2005 in the northern hemispheric land areas, in particular in dry regions, both in LSM and CMIP5 model simulations. Soil moisture trends in wet regions are less consistent among simulations. The increase in the area affected by drought (defined as the area where soil moisture is below its 10th percentile) from 1951 to 2005 is estimated to be 20 {\%} (LSMs) and 30 {\%} (CMIP5 models). A comparison between soil moisture simulated by LSMs and CMIP5 model output under different external forcings suggests that anthropogenic forcing contributed significantly to the observed drying and could explain the increase in the area affected by drought. As increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will continue in the near future, dry areas are projected to become drier and larger in extent, which could negatively impact future water supply and food security.},
author = {Mueller, Brigitte and Zhang, Xuebin},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1499-7},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {1-2},
pages = {255--267},
title = {{Causes of drying trends in northern hemispheric land areas in reconstructed soil moisture data}},
volume = {134},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Krishnan2020,
abstract = {This open access book discusses the impact of human-induced global climate change on the Indian subcontinent and regional monsoon, the adjoining Indian Ocean and the Himalayas. It also examines the regional climate change projections based on the climate models used by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and national climate change modeling studies using the IITM Earth System Model (ESM) and CORDEX South Asia datasets. The IPCC assessment reports, published every 6-7 years, provide important reference material for major policy decisions on climate change, adaptation, and mitigation. While the IPCC assessment reports largely provide a global perspective on climate change, they offer limited information on the regional aspects of climate change. Regional climate change effects over the Indian subcontinent, especially relating to the Indian monsoon, are unique to the region, and in particular, the climate in this region is shaped by the Himalayas, Western Ghats, the Tibetan Plateau, the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal. Climatic variations in this region are influenced by (a) regional-scale interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere and biosphere on different time scales, (b) remote effects from natural phenomena such as the El Nino / Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Madden Julian Oscillation, and (c) human-induced climate change. This book presents policy-relevant information based on robust scientific analysis and assessments of the observed and projected future climate change over the Indian region.},
address = {Singapore},
author = {Mujumdar, M and Preethi, B and Ramarao, M.V.S and Uppara, U and Goswami, M and Borgaonkar, H and Chakraborty, S and Ram, Somaru},
booktitle = {Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region: A Report of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India},
doi = {10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2_6},
editor = {Krishnan, R. and Sanjay, J. and Gnanaseelan, Chellappan and Mujumdar, Milind and Kulkarni, Ashwini and Chakraborty, Supriyo},
isbn = {9789811543272},
keywords = {Atmospheric trace gases,Climate change,Droughts and floods,Himalayan cryosphere,Himalayas,Indian ocean,Indian subcontinent,Monsoon,Open access,Temperature changes},
pages = {117--141},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Droughts and Floods}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2{\_}6},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Mukherjee2018SciRep,
abstract = {In summer (pre-monsoon) of recent years, low water level among the last few decades, has been observed in several lower Indian reaches of the Ganges (or Ganga) river (with estimated river water level depletion rates at the range of −0.5 to −38.1 cm/year between summers of 1999 and 2013 in the studied reaches). Here, we show this Ganges river depletion is related to groundwater baseflow reduction caused by ongoing observed groundwater storage depletion in the adjoining Gangetic aquifers (Ganges basin, −0.30 ± 0.07 cm/year or −2.39 ± 0.56 km3/year). Our estimates show, 2016-baseflow amount ({\~{}}1.0 × 106 m3/d) has reduced by {\~{}}59{\%}, from the beginning of the irrigation-pumping age of 1970s (2.4 × 106 m3/d) in some of the lower reaches. The net Ganges river water reduction could jeopardize domestic water supply, irrigation water requirements, river transport, ecology etc. of densely populated northern Indian plains. River water reduction has direct impact on food production indicating vulnerability to more than 100 million of the population residing in the region. The results of this study could be used to decipher the groundwater-linked river water depletion as well as the regional water security in other densely populated parts of the globe.},
annote = {intensive irrigation abstracts more water than can be replenished by rainfall and surface or sub-surface flows, groundwater depletion will occur},
author = {Mukherjee, Abhijit and Bhanja, Soumendra Nath and Wada, Yoshihide},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-30246-7},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {aug},
number = {1},
pages = {12049},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Groundwater depletion causing reduction of baseflow triggering Ganges river summer drying}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fs41598-018-30246-7},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Muller2015,
author = {Muller, Caroline and Bony, Sandrine},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064260},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {10.1002/2015GL064260 and tropical cloud-resolving model,radiative-convective equilibrium,radiative-convective instability,self-aggregation},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {5626--5634},
title = {{What favors convective aggregation and why?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL064260},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Mundhenk2018,
author = {Mundhenk, Bryan D. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D. and Baggett, Cory F.},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-017-0008-2},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {20177},
title = {{Skillful empirical subseasonal prediction of landfalling atmospheric river activity using the Madden–Julian oscillation and quasi-biennial oscillation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-017-0008-2},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Murphy2020,
abstract = {Abstract Extreme rainfall and flood events are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. In UK upland areas, historical over-grazing and associated soil compaction have further exacerbated peak flood levels and flash-flood risk along many river catchments. As a result, the reinstatement of upland woodland is increasingly seen as a key component of an integrated suite of options forming part of Natural Flood Management (NFM) associated with a ?public money for public goods? approach to European agriculture. Nevertheless, understanding the impact of native woodland establishment on upland soil hydrology remains relatively poor. We compare physical and hydrological properties from the surface soils of establishing woodland and grazed pasture across four flood vulnerable upland headwater catchments in Dartmoor National Park, SW England. We show upland native woodland establishment is a viable soil recovery option, with a doubling of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, increased ?wetness threshold? and reduced surface soil compaction and bulk density within 15?years of establishment. Our study supports the establishment of native woodland as an effective tool to improve the hydrological functioning of soils in upland pastoral catchments and the provision of flash-flood mitigation ?ecosystem services?. We caution however, that land managers and policy makers must consider past and present management, soil type and catchment location when planning new NFM schemes if environmental benefits are to be maximised and ?public money for public goods? are to be commensurate with outcomes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
author = {Murphy, Thomas R and Hanley, Mick E and Ellis, Jon S and Lunt, Paul H},
doi = {10.1002/ldr.3762},
issn = {1085-3278},
journal = {Land Degradation {\&} Development},
keywords = {Climate Change,Native woodland,Natural Flood Management,Soil hydrology,Soil recovery Uplands},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {1034--1045},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Native woodland establishment improves soil hydrological functioning in UK upland pastoral catchments}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3762 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ldr.3762},
volume = {32},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Murray2012,
abstract = {The formation of ice particles in the Earth's atmosphere strongly affects the properties of clouds and their impact on climate. Despite the importance of ice formation in determining the properties of clouds, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) was unable to assess the impact of atmospheric ice formation in their most recent report because our basic knowledge is insufficient. Part of the problem is the paucity of quantitative information on the ability of various atmospheric aerosol species to initiate ice formation. Here we review and assess the existing quantitative knowledge of ice nucleation by particles immersed within supercooled water droplets. We introduce aerosol species which have been identified in the past as potentially important ice nuclei and address their ice-nucleating ability when immersed in a supercooled droplet. We focus on mineral dusts, biological species (pollen, bacteria, fungal spores and plankton), carbonaceous combustion products and volcanic ash. In order to make a quantitative comparison we first introduce several ways of describing ice nucleation and then summarise the existing information according to the time-independent (singular) approximation. Using this approximation in combination with typical atmospheric loadings, we estimate the importance of ice nucleation by different aerosol types. According to these estimates we find that ice nucleation below about −15 °C is dominated by soot and mineral dusts. Above this temperature the only materials known to nucleate ice are biological, with quantitative data for other materials absent from the literature. We conclude with a summary of the challenges our community faces. {\textcopyright} 2012 The Royal Society of Chemistry.},
author = {Murray, B. J. and O'Sullivan, D. and Atkinson, J. D. and Webb, M. E.},
doi = {10.1039/c2cs35200a},
issn = {14604744},
journal = {Chemical Society Reviews},
month = {sep},
number = {19},
pages = {6519--6554},
publisher = {Royal Society of Chemistry},
title = {{Ice nucleation by particles immersed in supercooled cloud droplets}},
volume = {41},
year = {2012}
}
@article{MurrayTortarolo2017,
abstract = {One consequence of climate change is the alteration of global water fluxes, both in amount and seasonality. As a result, the seasonal difference between dry- (p {\textless} 100 mm/month) and wet-season (p {\textgreater} 100 mm/month) precipitation (p) has increased over land during recent decades (1980–2005). However, our analysis expanding to a 60-year period (1950–2009) showed the opposite trend. This is, dry-season precipitation increased steadily, while wet-season precipitation remained constant, leading to reduced seasonality at a global scale. The decrease in seasonality was not due to a change in dry-season length, but in precipitation rate; thus, the dry season is on average becoming wetter without changes in length. Regionally, wet- and dry-season precipitations are of opposite sign, causing a decrease in the seasonal variation of the precipitation over 62{\%} of the terrestrial ecosystems. Furthermore, we found a high correlation (r = 0.62) between the change in dry-season precipitation and the trend in modelled net primary productivity (NPP), which is explained based on different ecological mechanisms. This trend is not found with wet-season precipitation (r = 0.04), These results build on the argument that seasonal water availability has changed over the course of the last six decades and that the dry-season precipitation is a key driver of vegetation productivity at the global scale.},
annote = {dry-season precipitation increased steadily, while wet-season precipitation remained constant over period 1950-2009 leading to reduced seasonality at a global scale, in contrast to more recent period but note that early period is influenced by quite complex radiative forcing-related atmospheric circulation changes; dry-season precipitation is a key driver of vegetation productivity at the global scale.},
author = {Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo and Jaramillo, V{\'{i}}ctor J. and Maass, Manuel and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Sitch, Stephen},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0190304},
editor = {Silva, Lucas C R},
isbn = {1111111111},
issn = {19326203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {e0190304},
publisher = {Public Library of Science ({\{}PLoS{\}})},
title = {{The decreasing range between dry- and wet-season precipitation over land and its effect on vegetation primary productivity}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0190304},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{MurrayTortarolo2016,
abstract = {We analyze the impacts of changing dry season length and intensity on vegetation productivity and biomass. Our results show a wetness asymmetry in dry ecosystems, with dry seasons becoming drier and wet seasons becoming wetter, likely caused by climate change. The increasingly intense dry seasons were consistently correlated with a decreasing trend in net primary productivity (NPP) and biomass from different products and could potentially mean a reduction of 10–13{\%} in NPP by 2100. We found that annual NPP in dry ecosystems is particularly sensitive to the intensity of the dry season, whereas an increase in precipitation during the wet season has a smaller effect. We conclude that changes in water availability over the dry season affect vegetation throughout the whole year, driving changes in regional NPP. Moreover, these results suggest that usage of seasonal water fluxes is necessary to improve our understanding of the link between water availability and the land carbon cycle.},
annote = {more intense dry seasons in arid regions 1989-2005 and linked to decreased NPP},
author = {Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Sitch, Stephen and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Fletcher, Imogen and Mueller, Brigitte and Greve, Peter and Anav, Alessandro and Liu, Yi and Ahlstr{\"{o}}m, Anders and Huntingford, Chris and Levis, Sam and Levy, Peter and Lomas, Mark and Poulter, Benjamin and Viovy, Nicholas and Zaehle, Sonke and Zeng, Ning},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL068240},
isbn = {00948276},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {drought,dry season length,land carbon cycle},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2632--2639},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The dry season intensity as a key driver of NPP trends}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl068240},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Musselman2018NatureCC,
abstract = {Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover1–6, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville Dam crisis in California7. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how such rain-on-snow (ROS) flood risk may respond to climate change. Here, daily ROS events with flood-generating potential8 are simulated over western North America for a historical (2000–2013) and future (forced under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.59) period with the Weather Research and Forecasting model; 4 km resolution allows the basin-scale ROS flood risk to be assessed. In the warmer climate, we show that ROS becomes less frequent at lower elevations due to snowpack declines, particularly in warmer areas (for example, the Pacific maritime region). By contrast, at higher elevations where seasonal snowcover persists, ROS becomes more frequent due to a shift from snowfall to rain. Accordingly, the water available for runoff10 increases for 55{\%} of western North American river basins, with corresponding increases in flood risk of 20–200{\%}, the greatest changes of which are projected for the Sierra Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Thus, flood control and water resource planning must consider ROS to fully quantify changes in flood risk with anthropogenic warming.},
annote = {Projected rain-on-snow events increase in frequency in higher elevations of western North America, resulting in a 20-200{\%} enhancement of flood risk.},
author = {Musselman, Keith N. and Lehner, Flavio and Ikeda, Kyoko and Clark, Martyn P. and Prein, Andreas F. and Liu, Changhai and Barlage, Mike and Rasmussen, Roy},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0236-4},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {aug},
number = {9},
pages = {808--812},
publisher = {Springer Nature America, Inc},
title = {{Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0236-4},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Musselman2017a,
abstract = {There is general consensus that projected warming will cause earlier snowmelt, but how snowmelt rates will respond to climate change is poorly known. We present snowpack observations from western North America illustrating that shallower snowpack melts earlier, and at lower rates, than deeper, later-lying snow-cover. The observations provide the context for a hypothesis of slower snowmelt in a warmer world. We test this hypothesis using climate model simulations for both a control time period and re-run with a future climate scenario, and find that the fraction of meltwater volume produced at high snowmelt rates is greatly reduced in a warmer climate. The reduction is caused by a contraction of the snowmelt season to a time of lower available energy, reducing by as much as 64{\%} the snow-covered area exposed to energy sufficient to drive high snowmelt rates. These results have unresolved implications on soil moisture deficits, vegetation stress, and streamflow declines.},
author = {Musselman, Keith N. and Clark, Martyn P. and Liu, Changhai and Ikeda, Kyoko and Rasmussen, Roy},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3225},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {214--219},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Slower snowmelt in a warmer world}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3225 http://10.0.4.14/nclimate3225},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Myhre2018,
abstract = {Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.},
annote = {Large effect of sensible heat on global precipitation changes in historical period due to compensating effects of CO2 atmospheric heating and enhanced radiative cooling of a slowly warming atmosphere. warming will dominate in future leading to increases in global precipitation.},
author = {Myhre, G. and Samset, B. H. and Hodnebrog, {\O}. and Andrews, T. and Boucher, O. and Faluvegi, G. and Fl{\"{a}}schner, D. and Forster, P. M. and Kasoar, M. and Kharin, V. and Kirkev{\aa}g, A. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Olivi{\'{e}}, D. and Richardson, T. B. and Shawki, D. and Shindell, D. and Shine, K. P. and Stjern, C. W. and Takemura, T. and Voulgarakis, A.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04307-4},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1922},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04307-4 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04307-4},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Myhre2018GRL,
abstract = {Different climate drivers influence precipitation in different ways. Here we use radiative kernels to understand the influence of rapid adjustment processes on precipitation in climate models. Rapid adjustments are generally triggered by the initial heating or cooling of the atmosphere from an external climate driver. For precipitation changes, rapid adjustments due to changes in temperature, water vapor, and clouds are most important. In this study we have investigated five climate drivers (CO2, CH4, solar irradiance, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols). The fast precipitation responses to a doubling of CO2 and a 10-fold increase in black carbon are found to be similar, despite very different instantaneous changes in the radiative cooling, individual rapid adjustments, and sensible heating. The model diversity in rapid adjustments is smaller for the experiment involving an increase in the solar irradiance compared to the other climate driver perturbations, and this is also seen in the precipitation changes.},
annote = {model diversity in rapid precipitation adjustments to radiative forcing smaller for solar irradiance changes than other drivers (CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate aerosols)},
author = {Myhre, G. and Kramer, R. J. and Smith, C. J. and Hodnebrog and Forster, P. and Soden, B. J. and Samset, B. H. and Stjern, C. W. and Andrews, T. and Boucher, O. and Faluvegi, G. and Fl{\"{a}}schner, D. and Kasoar, M. and Kirkev{\aa}g, A. and Lamarque, J. F. and Olivi{\'{e}}, D. and Richardson, T. and Shindell, D. and Stier, P. and Takemura, T. and Voulgarakis, A. and Watson-Parris, D.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079474},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {PDRMIP,climate drivers changes kernels},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {11399--11405},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029{\%}2F2018gl079474},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{nzg16,
author = {Najafi, M and Zwiers, F and Gillett, N},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1632-2},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3-4},
pages = {571--586},
title = {{Attribution of the spring snow cover extent decline in the Northern Hemisphere, Eurasia and North America to anthropogenic influence}},
volume = {136},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Nakano2015,
author = {Nakano, Masuo and Sawada, Masahiro and Nasuno, Tomoe and Satoh, Masaki},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL062479},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {565--571},
title = {{Intraseasonal variability and tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific simulated by a global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL062479},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0179.1,
author = {Nangombe, Shingirai and Zhou, Tianjun and Zhang, Lixia and Zhang, Wenxia},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0179.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {1},
pages = {S135--S140},
title = {{Attribution Of The 2018 October–December Drought Over South Southern Africa}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0179.1},
volume = {101},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Narsey2020,
abstract = {Abstract Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon have been highly uncertain in previous generations of coupled climate models. The new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble provides an opportunity to address the uncertainty in future projections for northern Australia. We find that the range in Australian monsoon projections from the available CMIP6 ensemble is substantially reduced compared to CMIP5, although models continue to disagree on the magnitude and direction of change. While previous CMIP5 studies identified warming in the western equatorial Pacific as important for Australian monsoon projections, here we show that the western Pacific is not strongly connected to northern Australian precipitation changes in the CMIP6 models. By comparing groups of models based on their future projections, we note that the model-to-model differences in Australian monsoon projections are congruent with the zonally averaged precipitation response in the Southern Hemisphere tropics within each model.},
author = {Narsey, S. Y. and Brown, J. R. and Colman, R. A. and Delage, F. and Power, S. B. and Moise, A. F. and Zhang, H.},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086816},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Australian monsoon,CMIP5,CMIP6,climate change,precipitation,rainfall},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {e2019GL086816},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Climate Change Projections for the Australian Monsoon From CMIP6 Models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086816 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086816},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Nash2017,
address = {Oxford, UK},
author = {Nash, David},
booktitle = {Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science},
doi = {10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.539},
month = {feb},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {{Changes in Precipitation Over Southern Africa During Recent Centuries}},
url = {http://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-539},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Naughton2019,
abstract = {Paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that the complex variability within the Greenland stadial 1 (GS-1) over western Europe was governed by coupled ocean and atmospheric changes. However, few works from the North Atlantic mid-latitudes document both the GS-1 onset and its termination, which are often considered as single abrupt transition events. Here, we present a direct comparison between marine (alkenone-based sea surface temperatures) and terrestrial (pollen) data, at very high resolution (28 years mean), from the southwestern Iberian shelf record D13882. Our results reveal a rather complex climatic period with internally changing conditions. The GS-1 onset (GS-1a: 12890-12720 yr BP) is marked by a progressive cooling and drying; GS-1b (12720-12390 yr BP) is the coldest and driest phase; GS-1c (12390-12030 yr BP) is marked by a progressive warming and increase in moisture conditions; GS-1 termination (GS-1d: 12030-11770 yr BP) is marked by rapid switches between cool wet, cold dry and cool wet conditions. Although hydroclimate response was very unsteady throughout the GS-1 and in particular during its termination phase, the persistence of an open temperate and Mediterranean forest in southwestern Iberia during the entire episode suggests that at least some moisture was delivered via the Westerlies. We propose coupled ocean and atmospheric mechanisms to reproduce these scenaria. Changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as well as variations in the North Atlantic sea-ice growth have favoured the displacement of the polar jet stream's latitudinal position and contributed to a complex spatial pattern and strength of the Westerlies across western Europe.},
author = {Naughton, F. and Costas, S. and Gomes, S.D. and Desprat, S. and Rodrigues, T. and {Sanchez Go{\~{n}}i}, M.F. and Renssen, H. and Trigo, R. and Bronk-Ramsey, C. and Oliveira, D. and Salgueiro, E. and Voelker, A.H.L. and Abrantes, F.},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.03.033},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
keywords = {Complex climate variability,Greenland stadial 1,Iberian margin,Jet stream,Moisture availability,North atlantic,Paleoclimate,Westerlies,Younger Dryas},
month = {may},
pages = {108--120},
title = {{Coupled ocean and atmospheric changes during Greenland stadial 1 in southwestern Europe}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379118309302},
volume = {212},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Neelin_2017,
abstract = {Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to {\textgreater}1,000{\%} in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.},
annote = {natural threshold for extreme precipitation increases with warming leading to 100s-1000{\%} increases in extreme accumulations with 3oC global warming by 2100},
author = {Neelin, J. David and Sahany, Sandeep and Stechmann, Samuel N. and Bernstein, Diana N.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1615333114},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {6},
pages = {1258--1263},
pmid = {28115693},
publisher = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1615333114},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Neelin2013,
abstract = {Projections of possible precipitation change in California under global warming have been subject to considerable uncertainty because California lies between the region anticipated to undergo increases in precipitation at mid-to-high latitudes and regions of anticipated decrease in the subtropics. Evaluation of the large-scale model experiments for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests a greater degree of agreement on the sign of the winter (December-February) precipitation change than in the previous such intercomparison, indicating a greater portion of California falling within the increased precipitation zone. While the resolution of global models should not be relied on for accurate depiction of topographic rainfall distribution within California, the precipitation changes depend substantially on largescale shifts in the storm tracks arriving at the coast. Significant precipitation increases in the region arriving at the California coast are associated with an eastward extension of the region of strong Pacific jet stream, which appears to be a robust feature of the large-scale simulated changes. This suggests that effects of this jet extension in steering storm tracks toward the California coast constitute an important factor that should be assessed for impacts on incoming storm properties for high-resolution regional model assessments. {\textcopyright} 2013 American Meteorological Society.},
author = {Neelin, J. David and Langenbrunner, Baird and Meyerson, Joyce E. and Hall, Alex and Berg, Neil},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00514.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6238--6256},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{California winter precipitation change under global warming in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 ensemble}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article-pdf/26/17/6238/4023608/jcli-d-12-00514{\_}1.pdf},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Neu2013,
abstract = {The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.},
author = {Neu, Urs and Akperov, Mirseid G. and Bellenbaum, Nina and Benestad, Rasmus and Blender, Richard and Caballero, Rodrigo and Cocozza, Angela and Dacre, Helen F. and Feng, Yang and Fraedrich, Klaus and Grieger, Jens and Gulev, Sergey and Hanley, John and Hewson, Tim and Inatsu, Masaru and Keay, Kevin and Kew, Sarah F. and Kindem, Ina and Leckebusch, Gregor C. and Liberato, Margarida L.R. and Lionello, Piero and Mokhov, Igor I. and Pinto, Joaquim G. and Raible, Christoph C. and Reale, Marco and Rudeva, Irina and Schuster, Mareike and Simmonds, Ian and Sinclair, Mark and Sprenger, Michael and Tilinina, Natalia D. and Trigo, Isabel F. and Ulbrich, Sven and Ulbrich, Uwe and Wang, Xiaolan L. and Wernli, Heini},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1},
isbn = {0003-0007},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {529--547},
title = {{IMILAST: A Community Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithms}},
volume = {94},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Neukom2015,
abstract = {Projected future trends in water availability are associated with large uncertainties in many regions of the globe. In mountain areas with complex topography, climate models have often limited capabilities to adequately simulate the precipitation variability on small spatial scales. Also, their validation is hampered by typically very low station density. In the Central Andes of South America, a semi-arid high-mountain region with strong seasonality, zonal wind in the upper troposphere is a good proxy for interannual precipitation variability. Here, we combine instrumental measurements, reanalysis and paleoclimate data, and a 57-member ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations to assess changes in Central Andes precipitation over the period AD 1000–2100. This new database allows us to put future projections of precipitation into a previously missing multi-centennial and pre-industrial context. Our results confirm the relationship between regional summer precipitation and 200 hPa zonal wind in the Central Andes, with stronger Westerly winds leading to decreased precipitation. The period of instrumental coverage (1965–2010) is slightly dryer compared to pre-industrial times as represented by control simulations, simulations from the past Millennium, ice core data from Quelccaya ice cap and a tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction. The model ensemble identifies a clear reduction in precipitation already in the early 21st century: the 10 year running mean model uncertainty range (ensemble 16–84{\%} spread) is continuously above the pre-industrial mean after AD 2023 (AD 2028) until the end of the 21st century in the RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Average precipitation over AD 2071–2100 is outside the range of natural pre-industrial variability in 47 of the 57 model simulations for both emission scenarios. The ensemble median fraction of dry years (defined by the 5th percentile in pre-industrial conditions) is projected to increase by a factor of 4 until 2071–2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the strong reduction of greenhouse gas emissions projected by the RCP2.6 scenario, the Central Andes will experience a reduction in precipitation outside pre-industrial natural variability. This is of concern for the Central Andes, because society and economy are highly vulnerable to changes in the hydrological cycle and already have to face decreases in fresh water availability caused by glacier retreat.},
author = {Neukom, Raphael and Rohrer, Mario and Calanca, Pierluigi and Salzmann, Nadine and Huggel, Christian and Acu{\~{n}}a, Delia and Christie, Duncan A and Morales, Mariano S},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084017},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {8},
pages = {84017},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000–2100}},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Neumann2019GRL,
abstract = {Abstract Methane emissions regulate the near‐term global warming potential of permafrost thaw, particularly where loss of ice‐rich permafrost converts forest and tundra into wetlands. Northern latitudes are expected to get warmer and wetter, and while there is consensus that warming will increase thaw and methane emissions, effects of increased precipitation are uncertain. At a thawing wetland complex in Interior Alaska, we found that interactions between rain and deep soil temperatures controlled methane emissions. In rainy years, recharge from the watershed rapidly altered wetland soil temperatures, warming the top {\~{}}80 cm of soil in spring and summer and cooling it in autumn. When soils were warmed by spring rainfall, methane emissions increased by {\~{}}30{\%}. The warm, deep soils early in the growing season likely supported both microbial and plant processes that enhanced emissions. Our study identifies an important and unconsidered role of rain in governing the radiative forcing of thawing permafrost landscapes. Plain Language Summary Because the world is getting warmer, permanently frozen ground around the arctic, known as permafrost, is thawing. When permafrost thaws, the ground collapses and sinks. Often a wetland forms within the collapsed area. Conversion of permanently frozen landscapes to wetlands changes the exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and atmosphere, which impacts global temperatures. Wetlands release methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas. The ability of methane to warm the Earth is 32 times stronger than that of carbon dioxide over a period of 100 years. In our study, we found that methane release from a thaw wetland in Interior Alaska was greater in rainy years when rain fell in spring. When spring rainwater entered the wetland, it rapidly warmed wetland soils. Rain has roughly the same temperature as the air, and during springtime in northern regions, the air is warmer than the ground. The microbial and plant processes that generate methane increase with temperature. Therefore, wetland soils, warmed by spring rainfall, supported more methane production and release. Northern regions are expected to receive more rainfall in the future. By warming soils and increasing methane release, this rainfall could increase near‐term global warming associated with permafrost thaw.},
annote = {More spring rainfall is expected to accelerate thawing of permafrost through heat advection by infiltration leading to increased methane emissions},
author = {Neumann, Rebecca B. and Moorberg, Colby J. and Lundquist, Jessica D. and Turner, Jesse C. and Waldrop, Mark P. and McFarland, Jack W. and Euskirchen, Eugenie S. and Edgar, Colin W. and Turetsky, Merritt R.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081274},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {bog peatboreal,heat transfer,thermokarst,watershed},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1393--1401},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Warming Effects of Spring Rainfall Increase Methane Emissions From Thawing Permafrost}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029{\%}2F2018gl081274 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL081274},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Neupane2013,
abstract = {The response over West Africa to uniform warming of the Atlantic Ocean is analyzed using idealized simulations with a regional climate model. With warming of 1 and 1.5 K, rainfall rates increase by 30{\%}–50{\%} over most of West Africa. With Atlantic warming of 2Kand higher, coastal precipitation increases but Sahel rainfall decreases substantially. This nonlinear response in Sahel rainfall is the focus of this analysis. Atlantic warming is accompanied by decreases in low-level geopotential heights in the Gulf of Guinea and in the large- scale meridional geopotential height gradient. This leads to easterly wind anomalies in the central Sahel. With Atlantic warming below 2K, these easterly anomalies support moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and precipitation increases. With Atlantic warming over 2K, the easterly anomalies reverse the westerly flow over the Sahel. The resulting dry air advection into the Sahel reduces precipitation. Increased low-level moisture provides moist static energy to initiate convection with Atlantic warming at 1.5K and below, while decreased moisture and stable thermal profiles suppress convection with additional warming. In all simula- tions, the southerly monsoon flow onto the Guinean coast is maintained and precipitation in that region increases. The relevance of these results to the global warming problem is limited by the focus on Atlantic warming alone. However, confident prediction of climate change requires an understanding of the physical processes of change, and this paper contributes to that goal.},
author = {Neupane, Naresh and Cook, Kerry H.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00475.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {18},
pages = {7080--7096},
title = {{A Nonlinear Response of Sahel Rainfall to Atlantic Warming}},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Neves2019,
author = {Neves, Maria C. and Jerez, Sonia and Trigo, Ricardo M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.11.054},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {jan},
pages = {1105--1117},
title = {{The response of piezometric levels in Portugal to NAO, EA, and SCAND climate patterns}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169418309090},
volume = {568},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ng2018a,
author = {Ng, Benjamin and Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim and Bi, Daohua},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-31842-3},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {13500},
title = {{Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-31842-3},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Nguyen2018,
abstract = {AbstractLittle dispute surrounds the observed global temperature changes over the past decades (Jones {\&} Moberg, 2003). As a result, there is widespread agreement that a corresponding response in the global hydrologic cycle must exist. However, exactly how such a response manifests remains unsettled. Here we use a unique recently developed long-term satellite-based record to assess changes in precipitation across spatial scales. We show that warm climate regions exhibit decreasing precipitation trends while arid and polar climate regions show increasing trends. At the country scale, precipitation seems to have increased in 96 countries, and decreased in 104. We also explore precipitation changes over 237 global major basins. Our results show opposing trends at different scales, highlighting the importance of spatial scale in trend analysis. Furthermore, while the increasing global temperature trend is apparent in observations, the same cannot be said for the global precipitation trend according to the high-resolution dataset PERSIANN-CDR used in this study.},
author = {Nguyen, Phu and Thorstensen, Andrea and Sorooshian, Soroosh and Hsu, Kuolin and AghaKouchak, Amir and Ashouri, Hamed and Tran, Hoang and Braithwaite, Dan},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0065.1},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {4},
pages = {689--697},
title = {{Global precipitation trends across spatial scales using satellite observations}},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Nguyen2015,
author = {Nguyen, H. and Lucas, C. and Evans, A. and Timbal, B. and Hanson, L.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0139.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {8067--8077},
title = {{Expansion of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell in Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0139.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Nguyen2018a,
abstract = {In order to understand the regional impacts of variations in the extent of the Hadley circulation in the Southern Hemisphere, regional Hadley circulations are defined in three sectors centered on the main tropical heat sources over Africa, Asia-Pacific (Maritime Continent) and the Americas. These regional circulations are defined by computing a streamfunction from the divergent component of the meridional wind. A major finding from this study is that year-to-year variability in the extent of the hemispheric Hadley circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is primarily governed by variations of the extent of the Hadley circulation in the Asia-Pacific sector, especially during austral spring and summer when there is little co-variability with the African sector, and the American sector exhibits an out of phase behavior. An expanded Hadley circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (both hemispherically and in the Asia-Pacific sector) is associated with La Ni{\~{n}}a conditions and a poleward expansion of the tropical wet zone in the Asia-Pacific sector. While La Ni{\~{n}}a also promotes expansion in the American and African sectors during austral winter, these tropical conditions tend to promote contraction in the two sectors during austral summer as a result of compensating convergence over the Americas and Africa sectors: a process driven by variations in the Walker circulation and Rossby wave trains emanating from the tropical Indian Ocean.},
author = {Nguyen, H. and Hendon, H. H. and Lim, E. P. and Boschat, G. and Maloney, E. and Timbal, B.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3592-2},
isbn = {0090-502X},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {129--142},
pmid = {24214698},
title = {{Variability of the extent of the Hadley circulation in the southern hemisphere: a regional perspective}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3592-2},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ni2018,
author = {Ni, Shengnan and Chen, Jianli and Wilson, Clark R. and Li, Jin and Hu, Xiaogong and Fu, Rong},
doi = {10.1007/s10712-017-9421-7},
issn = {0169-3298},
journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--22},
title = {{Global Terrestrial Water Storage Changes and Connections to ENSO Events}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10712-017-9421-7},
volume = {39},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Nicholson2013,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}The West African Sahel is well known for the severe droughts that ravaged the region in the 1970s and 1980s. Meteorological research on the region has flourished during the last decade as a result of several major field experiments. This paper provides an overview of the results that have ensued. A major focus has been on the West African monsoon, a phenomenon that links all of West Africa. The characteristics and revised picture of the West African monsoon are emphasized. Other topics include the interannual variability of rainfall, the atmospheric circulation systems that govern interannual variability, characteristics of precipitation and convection, wave activity, large-scale factors in variability (including sea-surface temperatures), and land-atmosphere relationships. New paradigms for the monsoon and associated ITCZ and for interannual variability have emerged. These emphasize features in the upper atmosphere, as well as the Saharan Heat Low. Feedback mechanisms have also been emphasized, especially the coupling of convection with atmospheric dynamics and with land surface characteristics. New results also include the contrast between the premonsoon and peak monsoon seasons, two preferred modes of interannual variability (a latitudinal displacement of the tropical rainbelt versus changes in its intensity), and the critical importance of the Tropical Easterly Jet.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Nicholson, Sharon E.},
doi = {10.1155/2013/453521},
issn = {2090-7524},
journal = {ISRN Meteorology},
month = {feb},
pages = {1--32},
publisher = {Hindawi},
title = {{The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability}},
url = {https://www.hindawi.com/archive/2013/453521/},
volume = {2013},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Nicholson2017,
author = {Nicholson, Sharon E.},
doi = {10.1002/2016RG000544},
issn = {87551209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {East Africa,rainfall variability},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {590--635},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Climate and climatic variability of rainfall over eastern Africa}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016RG000544},
volume = {55},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Nicholson2018a,
author = {Nicholson, Sharon E. and Fink, Andreas H. and Funk, Chris},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5530},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {aug},
number = {10},
pages = {3770--3786},
title = {{Assessing recovery and change in West Africa's rainfall regime from a 161-year record}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5530},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Nie_2018,
abstract = {Changes in precipitation extremes under climate change are subject to substantial uncertainty. Atmospheric moisture increases alone would make extreme rain events heavier at a well-understood rate of ∼7{\%}/K, but a component associated with storm dynamics is much less well-understood and can either amplify or reduce that moisture-driven intensification. This paper uses an idealized modeling framework to understand the coupling of these two components, simulating one actual heavy rain event in both the present climate and hypothetical perturbed climates. The increased heating due to increased moisture drives a dynamical increase in large-scale ascent, amplifying the moisture-driven response by as much as a factor of two for warmer climates. A useful starting hypothesis for predictions of changes in precipitation extremes with climate is that those extremes increase at the same rate as atmospheric moisture does, which is 7{\%}/K following the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. This hypothesis, however, neglects potential changes in the strengths of atmospheric circulations associated with precipitation extremes. As increased moisture leads to increased precipitation, the increased latent heating may lead to stronger large-scale ascent and thus, additional increase in precipitation, leading to a super-CC scaling. This study investigates this possibility in the context of the 2015 Texas extreme precipitation event using the Column Quasi-Geostrophic (CQG) method. Analogs to this event are simulated in different climatic conditions with varying surface temperature (Ts) given the same adiabatic quasigeostrophic forcing. Precipitation in these events exhibits super-CC scaling due to the dynamic contribution associated with increasing ascent due to increased latent heating, an increase with importance that increases with Ts. The thermodynamic contribution (attributable to increasing water vapor; assuming no change in vertical motion) approximately follows CC as expected, while vertical structure changes of moisture and diabatic heating lead to negative but secondary contributions to the sensitivity, reducing the rate of increase.},
author = {Nie, Ji and Sobel, Adam H. and Shaevitz, Daniel A. and Wang, Shuguang},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1800357115},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {38},
pages = {201800357},
publisher = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Dynamic amplification of extreme precipitation sensitivity}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1800357115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Nikumbh2019SciRep,
abstract = {Significant increase in the frequency of occurrences of rainfall extremes has been reported over several parts of the world. These extreme events were defined at individual grids without considering their spatial extent. Here, using ground-based observations over India during boreal summer, we show that the average size of spatially collocated rainfall extremes has been significantly increasing since 1980. However, the frequency of occurrences of such collocated extreme events remains unchanged. Around 90{\%} of the total number of large-sized events (area ≥ 70 × 103 km2) of our study period (1951 to 2015) have occurred after 1980. Some of the major floods in recent decades over India are attributed to these large events. These events have distinctive precursory planetary-scale conditions, unlike their smaller counterparts. As the underlying physical mechanisms of extremes rainfall events are size-dependent, their changing spatial extent needs to be considered to understand the observed trends correctly and obtain realistic future projections.},
author = {Nikumbh, Akshaya and Chakraborty, Arindam and Bhat, G S},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-46719-2},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {1--29},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media {\{}LLC{\}}},
title = {{Recent spatial aggregation tendency of rainfall extremes over India}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46719-2},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{NiranjanKumar2013,
abstract = {In the present study, the observed variability of monsoon droughts over India has been examined using a drought monitoring index, namely the Standardized Precipitation Evapo-transpiration Index (SPEI). For calculating the SPEI over different time periods, long term (1901-2010), high resolution, monthly gridded temperature and rainfall data sets have been used. The drought time series shows significant interannual, decadal and long term trends. The analysis suggests a general increase in the intensity and percent area affected by moderate droughts during the recent decades. In particular, the frequency of multi-year (24 months) droughts has shown a statistically significant increase, which is attributed to increase in surface air temperatures and thus drying of the atmosphere. The wavelet analysis of SPEI suggests significant spectral peaks at quasi-biennial (2-3 years), ENSO (5-7 years) and decadal (10-16 years) time scales, with significant multi-decadal variations. The variability of monsoon droughts over India is significantly influenced by the tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. The Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) suggests that the major portion of the drought variability is influenced by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Global warming, especially the warming of the equatorial Indian Ocean represents the second coupled mode and is responsible for the observed increase in intensity of droughts during the recent decades. {\textcopyright} 2013 The Authors.},
author = {{Niranjan Kumar}, K. and Rajeevan, M. and Pai, D. S. and Srivastava, A. K. and Preethi, B. and {Niranjan Kumar et al.} and {Niranjan Kumar}, K. and Rajeevan, M. and Pai, D. S. and Srivastava, A. K. and Preethi, B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2013.07.006},
isbn = {2212-0947},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Global warming,Indian Monsoon,Meteorological drought},
pages = {42--50},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{On the observed variability of monsoon droughts over India}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2013.07.006},
volume = {1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Norris2019,
abstract = {Projected changes in the frequency of major precipitation accumulations (hundreds of millimeters), integrated over rainfall events, over land in the late twenty-first century are analyzed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble, based on the RCP8.5 scenario. Accumulation sizes are sorted by the local average recurrence interval (ARI), ranging from 0.1 to 100 years, for the current and projected late-twenty-first-century climates separately. For all ARIs, the frequency of exceedance of the given accumulation size increases in the future climate almost everywhere, especially for the largest accumulations, with the 100-yr accumulation becoming about 3 times more frequent, averaged over the global land area. The moisture budget allows the impacts of individual factors—moisture, circulation, and event duration—to be isolated. In the tropics, both moisture and circulation cause large future increases, enhancing the 100-yr accumulation by 23{\%} and 13{\%} (average over tropical land), and are individually responsible for making the current-climate 100-yr accumulation 2.7 times and 1.8 times more frequent, but effects of shorter durations slightly offset these effects. In the midlatitudes, large accumulations become about 5{\%} longer in duration, but are predominantly controlled by enhanced moisture, with the 100-yr accumulation (land average) becoming 2.4 times more frequent, and 2.2 times more frequent due to moisture increases alone. In some monsoon-affected regions, the 100-yr accumulation becomes more than 5 times as frequent, where circulation changes are the most impactful factor. These projections indicate that changing duration of events is a relatively minor effect on changing accumulations, their future enhancement being dominated by enhanced intensity (the combination of moisture and circulation).},
author = {Norris, Jesse and Chen, Gang and Neelin, J. David},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0600.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere,Atmospheric Dynamics,Extreme events,General  models,Precipitation},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {5397--5416},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Changes in Frequency of Large Precipitation Accumulations over Land in a Warming Climate from the CESM Large Ensemble: The Roles of Moisture, Circulation, and Duration}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0600.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Norris2016Nature,
abstract = {Clouds substantially affect Earth's energy budget by reflecting solar radiation back to space and by restricting emission of thermal radiation to space1. They are perhaps the largest uncertainty in our understanding of climate change, owing to disagreement among climate models and observational datasets over what cloud changes have occurred during recent decades and will occur in response to global warming2,3. This is because observational systems originally designed for monitoring weather have lacked sufficient stability to detect cloud changes reliably over decades unless they have been corrected to remove artefacts4,5. Here we show that several independent, empirically corrected satellite records exhibit large- scale patterns of cloud change between the 1980s and the 2000s that are similar to those produced by model simulations of climate with recent historical external radiative forcing. Observed and simulated cloud change patterns are consistent with poleward retreat of mid-latitude storm tracks, expansion of subtropical dry zones, and increasing height of the highest cloud tops at all latitudes. The primary drivers of these cloud changes appear to be increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and a recovery from volcanic radiative cooling. These results indicate that the cloud changes most consistently predicted by global climate models are currently occurring in nature.},
author = {Norris, Joel R. and Allen, Robert J. and Evan, Amato T. and Zelinka, Mark D. and O'Dell, Christopher W. and Klein, Stephen A.},
doi = {10.1038/nature18273},
isbn = {1476-4687},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jul},
number = {7614},
pages = {72--75},
pmid = {27398619},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18273},
volume = {536},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Notaro2015,
abstract = {Projections of regional climate, net basin supply (NBS), and water levels are developed for the mid- and late twenty-first century across the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Two state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RCM) interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model, and then a hydrologic routing model is forced with time series of perturbed NBS. The dynamical downscaling and coupling with a lake model to represent the Great Lakes create added value beyond the parent GCM in terms of simulated seasonal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and surface fluxes. However, limitations related to this rudimentary treatment of the Great Lakes result in warm summer biases in lake temperatures, excessive ice cover, and an abnormally early peak in lake evaporation. While the downscaling of both GCMs led to consistent projections of increases in annual air temperature, precipitation, and all NBS components (overlake precipitation, basinwide runoff, and lake evaporation), the resulting projected water level trends are opposite in sign. Clearly, it is not sufficient to correctly simulate the signs of the projected change in each NBS component; one must also account for their relative magnitudes. The potential risk of more frequent episodes of lake levels below the low water datum, a critical shipping threshold, is explored.},
author = {Notaro, Michael and Bennington, Val and Lofgren, Brent},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00847.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atm/Ocean Structure/Phenomena,Climate change,Climate variability,Freshwater,Geographic location/entity,Hydrology,Inland seas/lakes,Models and modeling,Physical meteorology and climatology,Regional models,Variability},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {9721--9745},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Dynamical downscaling-based projections of great lakes water levels}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Novello2016,
author = {Novello, Valdir F. and Vuille, Mathias and Cruz, Francisco W. and Str{\'{i}}kis, Nicol{\'{a}}s M. and de Paula, Marcos Saito and Edwards, R. Lawrence and Cheng, Hai and Karmann, Ivo and Jaqueto, Pl{\'{i}}nio F. and Trindade, Ricardo I. F. and Hartmann, Gelvam A. and Moquet, Jean S.},
doi = {10.1038/srep24762},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {1--8},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Centennial-scale solar forcing of the South American Monsoon System recorded in stalagmites}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep24762},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Novello2017,
author = {Novello, Valdir F. and Cruz, Francisco W. and Vuille, Mathias and Str{\'{i}}kis, Nicol{\'{a}}s M. and Edwards, R. Lawrence and Cheng, Hai and Emerick, Suellyn and de Paula, Marcos S. and Li, Xianglei and Barreto, Eline de S. and Karmann, Ivo and Santos, Roberto V.},
doi = {10.1038/srep44267},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {1--8},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{A high-resolution history of the South American Monsoon from Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep44267},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Nurutami2016,
author = {Nur'utami, Murni Ngestu and Hidayat, Rahmat},
doi = {10.1016/j.proenv.2016.03.070},
issn = {18780296},
journal = {Procedia Environmental Sciences},
pages = {196--203},
title = {{Influences of IOD and ENSO to Indonesian Rainfall Variability: Role of Atmosphere–ocean Interaction in the Indo-pacific Sector}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1878029616002358},
volume = {33},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Nusbaumer2019,
abstract = {Abstract Understanding the atmospheric moisture budget of Greenland is critical for predicting future Greenland climate. However, past attempts to quantify the provenance of Greenland precipitation have been limited to certain seasons. Here we present an analysis of Greenland moisture sources using water tracers in the GISS climate model, which can provide source estimates for all time periods. The North Atlantic is found to be the dominant moisture source, except during summer when continental sources increase substantially. The variability is also found to be partially correlated with the Greenland Blocking Index. The key finding, however, is a long-term trend in the moisture source location for Northwest Greenland, with an increase in more locally-sourced moisture over time during non-summer months. This is at least partially related to sea ice loss in the Baffin Bay region, along with a larger increase in sea surface temperatures for the region relative to other locales.},
author = {Nusbaumer, Jesse and Alexander, Patrick M and LeGrande, Allegra N and Tedesco, Marco},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084633},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate Change,Climate Modeling,Moisture Sources},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {14723--14731},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Spatial Shift of Greenland Moisture Sources Related to Enhanced Arctic Warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084633 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084633},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Nygard2020,
abstract = {Along with the amplified warming and dramatic sea ice decline, the Arctic has experienced regionally and seasonally variable moistening of the atmosphere. Based on reanalysis data, this study demonstrates that the regional moistening patterns during the last four decades, 1979–2018, were predominantly shaped by the strong trends in horizontal moisture transport. Our results suggest that the trends in moisture transport were largely driven by changes in atmospheric circulation. Trends in evaporation in the Arctic had a smaller role in shaping the moistening patterns. Both horizontal moisture transport and local evaporation have been affected by the diminishing sea ice cover during the cold seasons from autumn to spring. Increases in evaporation have been restricted to the vicinity of the sea ice margin over a limited period during the local sea ice decline. For the first time we demonstrate that, after the sea ice has disappeared from a region, evaporation over the open sea has had negative trends due to the effect of horizontal moisture transport to suppress evaporation. Near the sea ice margin, the trends in moisture transport and evaporation and the cloud response to those have been circulation dependent. The future moisture and cloud distributions in the Arctic are expected to respond to changes in atmospheric pressure patterns; circulation and moisture transport will also control where and when efficient surface evaporation can occur.},
author = {Nyg{\aa}rd, Tiina and Naakka, Tuomas and Vihma, Timo},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0891.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {16},
pages = {6793--6807},
title = {{Horizontal Moisture Transport Dominates the Regional Moistening Patterns in the Arctic}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0891.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{OGorman2015,
abstract = {The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to better constrain the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to warming.},
annote = {Review},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {1503.07557v1},
author = {O'Gorman, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3},
eprint = {1503.07557v1},
isbn = {2198-6061},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {49--59},
pmid = {26312211},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{OGorman2009,
abstract = {Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.},
author = {O'Gorman, P. A. and Schneider, T.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0907610106},
isbn = {1091-6490 (Electronic)$\backslash$r1091-6490 (Linking)},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {35},
pages = {14773--14777},
pmid = {19706430},
title = {{The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0907610106},
volume = {106},
year = {2009}
}
@article{OGorman2018,
abstract = {The parameterization of moist convection contributes to uncertainty in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction. Machine learning (ML) can be used to learn new parameterizations directly from high-resolution model output, but it remains poorly understood how such parameterizations behave when fully coupled in a general circulation model (GCM) and whether they are useful for simulations of climate change or extreme events. Here, we focus on these issues using idealized tests in which an ML-based parameterization is trained on output from a conventional parameterization and its performance is assessed in simulations with a GCM. We use an ensemble of decision trees (random forest) as the ML algorithm, and this has the advantage that it automatically ensures conservation of energy and non-negativity of surface precipitation. The GCM with the ML convective parameterization runs stably and accurately captures important climate statistics including precipitation extremes without the need for special training on extremes. Climate change between a control climate and a warm climate is not captured if the ML parameterization is only trained on the control climate, but it is captured if the training includes samples from both climates. Remarkably, climate change is also captured when training only on the warm climate, and this is because the extratropics of the warm climate provides training samples for the tropics of the control climate. In addition to being potentially useful for the simulation of climate, we show that ML parameterizations can be interrogated to provide diagnostics of the interaction between convection and the large-scale environment.},
author = {O'Gorman, Paul A. and Dwyer, John G.},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001351},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {climate change,extreme events,machine learning,moist parameterization,subgrid ing},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {2548--2563},
title = {{Using Machine Learning to Parameterize Moist Convection: Potential for Modeling of Climate, Climate Change, and Extreme Events}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018MS001351},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{OGorman2012,
abstract = {Precipitation extremes increase in intensity over many regions of the globe in simulations of a warming climate1, 2, 3. The rate of increase of precipitation extremes in the extratropics is consistent across global climate models, but the rate of increase in the tropics varies widely, depending on the model used3. The behaviour of tropical precipitation can, however, be constrained by observations of interannual variability in the current climate4, 5, 6. Here I show that, across state-of-the-art climate models, the response of tropical precipitation extremes to interannual climate variability is strongly correlated with their response to longer-term climate change, although these responses are different. I then use satellite observations to estimate the response of tropical precipitation extremes to the interannual variability. Applying this observational constraint to the climate simulations and exploiting the relationship between the simulated responses to interannual variability and climate change, I estimate a sensitivity of the 99.9th percentile of daily tropical precipitation to climate change at 10{\%} per K of surface warming, with a 90{\%} confidence interval of 614{\%} K1. This tropical sensitivity is higher than expectations for the extratropics3 of about 5{\%} K1. The inferred percentage increase in tropical precipitation extremes is similar when considering only land regions, where the impacts of extreme precipitation can be severe.},
author = {O'Gorman, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1568},
isbn = {1752-0908},
issn = {17520894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {emergent },
number = {10},
pages = {697--700},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1568},
volume = {5},
year = {2012}
}
@article{OGorman2011SurvGeo,
abstract = {Energetic constraints on precipitation are useful for understanding the response of the hydrological cycle to ongoing climate change, its response to possible geoengineering schemes, and the limits on precipitation in very warm climates of the past. Much recent progress has been made in quantifying the different forcings and feedbacks on precipitation and in understanding how the transient responses of precipitation and temperature might differ qualitatively. Here, we introduce the basic ideas and review recent progress. We also examine the extent to which energetic constraints on precipitation may be viewed as radiative constraints and the extent to which they are confirmed by available observations. Challenges remain, including the need to better demonstrate the link between energetics and precipitation in observations and to better understand energetic constraints on precipitation at sub-global length scales.},
author = {O'Gorman, Paul A. and Allan, Richard P. and Byrne, Michael P. and Previdi, Michael},
doi = {10.1007/s10712-011-9159-6},
isbn = {0169-3298},
issn = {01693298},
journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
keywords = {Energetics,Global change,Precipitation},
month = {nov},
number = {3-4},
pages = {585--608},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Energetic Constraints on Precipitation Under Climate Change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007{\%}2Fs10712-011-9159-6},
volume = {33},
year = {2012}
}
@article{OGorman2014Nature,
abstract = {Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate(1-4). Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts(5-7). Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures(3,4). The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall overmany Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8{\%} in the multimodel median, compared to a 65{\%} reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as -9 degrees C, compared to -14 degrees C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain-snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.},
author = {O'Gorman, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1038/nature13625},
isbn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
month = {aug},
number = {7515},
pages = {416--418},
pmid = {25164753},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13625},
volume = {512},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Ogata2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. In this study, we compare the resolution sensitivity of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) in two Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs): the MRI-AGCM and the MetUM. We analyze the MetUM at three different resolutions, N96 (approximately 200-km mesh on the equator), N216 (90-km mesh) and N512 (40-km mesh), and the MRI-AGCM at TL95 (approximately 180-km mesh on the equator), TL319 (60-km mesh), and TL959 (20-km mesh). The MRI-AGCM and the MetUM both show decreasing precipitation over the western Pacific with increasing resolution, but their precipitation responses differ over the Indian Ocean. In MRI-AGCM, a large precipitation increase appears off the equator (5–20°N). In MetUM, this off-equatorial precipitation increase is less significant and precipitation decreases over the equator. Moisture budget analysis demonstrates that a changing in moisture flux convergence at higher resolution is related to the precipitation response. Orographic effects, intra-seasonal variability and the representation of the meridional thermal gradient are explored as possible causes of the resolution sensitivity. Both high-resolution AGCMs (TL959 and N512) can represent steep topography, which anchors the rainfall pattern over south Asia and the Maritime Continent. In MRI-AGCM, representation of low pressure systems in TL959 also contributes to the rainfall pattern. Furthermore, the seasonal evolution of the meridional thermal gradient appears to be more accurate at higher resolution, particularly in the MRI-AGCM. These findings emphasize that the impact of resolution is only robust across the two AGCMs for some features of the ASM, and highlights the importance of multi-model studies of GCM resolution sensitivity.},
author = {Ogata, Tomomichi and Johnson, Stephanie J. and Schiemann, Reinhard and Demory, Marie Estelle and Mizuta, Ryo and Yoshida, Kohei and {Osamu Arakawa}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3517-5},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {AMIP,Asian monsoon,High HighResMIP,Orography},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3345--3361},
title = {{The resolution sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon and its inter-model comparison between MRI-AGCM and MetUM}},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Oki2006,
abstract = {Water is a naturally circulating resource that is constantly recharged. Therefore, even though the stocks of water in natural and artificial reservoirs are helpful to increase the available water resources for human society, the flow of water should be the main focus in water resources assessments. The climate system puts an upper limit on the circulation rate of available renewable freshwater resources (RFWR). Although current global withdrawals are well below the upper limit, more than two billion people live in highly water-stressed areas because of the uneven distribution of RFWR in time and space. Climate change is expected to accelerate water cycles and thereby increase the available RFWR. This would slow down the increase of people living under water stress; however, changes in seasonal patterns and increasing probability of extreme events may offset this effect. Reducing current vulnerability will be the first step to prepare for such anticipated changes.},
author = {Oki, Taikan and Kanae, Shinjiro},
doi = {10.1126/science.1128845},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {5790},
pages = {1068--1072},
title = {{Global Hydrological Cycles and World Water Resources}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/313/5790/1068.abstract https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1128845},
volume = {313},
year = {2006}
}
@article{ok11,
author = {Okkonen, J and Kl{\o}ve, B},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.09.038},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
pages = {91--107},
title = {{A sequential modelling approach to assess groundwater–surface water resources in a snow dominated region of Finland}},
volume = {411},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Okumura2017,
author = {Okumura, Yuko M. and DiNezio, Pedro and Deser, Clara},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075034},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {11614--11623},
title = {{Evolving Impacts of Multiyear La Ni{\~{n}}a Events on Atmospheric Circulation and U.S. Drought}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL075034},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Oliver2012,
author = {Oliver, Eric C. J. and Thompson, Keith R.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00154.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {1996--2019},
title = {{A Reconstruction of Madden–Julian Oscillation Variability from 1905 to 2008}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00154.1},
volume = {25},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Oltmanns2018,
author = {Oltmanns, Marilena and Straneo, Fiammetta and Tedesco, Marco},
doi = {10.5194/tc-13-815-2019},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {815--825},
publisher = {Copernicus {\{}GmbH{\}}},
title = {{Increased Greenland melt triggered by large-scale, year-round cyclonic moisture intrusions}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/815/2019/},
volume = {13},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Orlowsky2013,
abstract = {Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agri- cultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipita- tion Index (SPI) of these events lies within the general range of observation-based SPI time series and simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In terms of magnitude, regional trends of SPI over the last decades remain mostly inconclusive in observation- based datasets and CMIP5 simulations, but Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMAs) in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions (e.g., the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon, North-East Brazil and South Africa). Also for the future, projections of changes in the magnitude of meteorological (SPI) and soil moisture (SMA) drought in CMIP5 display large spreads over all time frames, generally impeding trend detection. However, projections of changes in the frequencies of future drought events display more robust signal-to-noise ratios, with detectable trends to- wards more frequent drought before the end of the 21st cen- tury in the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central Amer- ica/Mexico. Other present-day hot spots are projected to be- come less drought-prone, or display non-significant changes in drought occurrence. A separation of different sources of uncertainty in projections of meteorological and soil mois- ture drought reveals that for the near term, internal climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulation of Global Climate Models (GCMs) generally becomes the dom- inant source of spread by the end of the 21st century, es- pecially for soil moisture drought. In comparison, the un- certainty from Green-House Gas (GHG) concentrations sce- narios is negligible for most regions. These findings stand in contrast to respective analyses for a heat wave index, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the main source of uncertainty. Our results highlight the inherent dif- ficulty of drought quantification and the considerable likeli- hood range of drought projections, but also indicate regions where drought is consistently found to increase. In other re- gions, wide likelihood range should not be equated with low drought risk, since potential scenarios include large drought increases in key agricultural and ecosystem regions.},
author = {Orlowsky, B. and Seneviratne, S. I.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013},
isbn = {1812-2116},
issn = {10275606},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {5},
pages = {1765--1781},
title = {{Elusive drought: Uncertainty in observed trends and short-and long-term CMIP5 projections}},
volume = {17},
year = {2013}
}
@article{o19,
author = {Ose, Tomoaki},
doi = {10.2151/jmsj.2019-018},
issn = {0026-1165},
journal = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Series II},
number = {2},
pages = {317--335},
title = {{Characteristics of Future Changes in Summertime East Asian Monthly Precipitation in MRI-AGCM Global Warming Experiments}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-018 https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/97/2/97{\_}2019-018/{\_}article},
volume = {97},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Oshima2017,
author = {Oshima, Kazuhiro and Yamazaki, Koji},
doi = {10.5817/CPR2017-2-17},
issn = {18050689},
journal = {Czech Polar Reports},
number = {2},
pages = {169--180},
title = {{Atmospheric hydrological cycles in the Arctic and Antarctic during the past four decades}},
url = {http://www.sci.muni.cz/CPR/LP722017/LP-7{\_}2-17.htm},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Oster2015,
abstract = {The hydroclimate history of North America includes the formation and desiccation of large inland lakes and the growth and ablation of glaciers throughout the Quaternary period. At the Last Glacial Maximum, expanded pluvial lakes in the south and aridity in the northwest suggest that the winter westerly storm track was displaced southwards and migrated northwards as the Laurentide Ice Sheetwaned. However, lake highstands do not occur synchronously along zonal bands, in conflict with this hypothesis. Here we compile a network of precipitation proxy reconstructions from lakes, speleothems, groundwater deposits, packrat middens and glaciers from the western and southwestern US, which we compare with an ensemble of climate simulations to identify the controls of regional hydroclimatic change. The proxy records suggest a precipitation dipole during the Last Glacial Maximum, with wetter than modern conditions in the southwest and drier conditions near the ice sheet, and a northwest–southeast trending transition zone across the northern Great Basin. The models that simulate a weaker and south-shifted Aleutian low-pressure system, a strong North Pacific high-pressure system, and a high above the ice sheet best reproduce this regional variation. We therefore conclude that rather than a uniformly south-shifted storm track, a stronger jet that is squeezed and steered across the continent by high-pressure systems best explains the observed regional hydroclimate patterns of the Last Glacial Maximum.},
author = {Oster, Jessica L. and Ibarra, Daniel E. and Winnick, Matthew J. and Maher, Katharine},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2365},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {201--205},
title = {{Steering of westerly storms over western North America at the Last Glacial Maximum}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2365},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Otkin2018,
abstract = {Given the increasing use of the term “flash drought” by the media and scientific community, it is prudent to develop a consistent definition that can be used to identify these events and to understand their salient characteristics. It is generally accepted that flash droughts occur more often during the summer owing to increased evaporative demand; however, two distinct approaches have been used to identify them. The first approach focuses on their rate of intensification, whereas the second approach implicitly focuses on their duration. These conflicting notions for what constitutes a flash drought (i.e., unusually fast intensification vs short duration) introduce ambiguity that affects our ability to detect their onset, monitor their development, and understand the mechanisms that control their evolution. Here, we propose that the definition for “flash drought” should explicitly focus on its rate of intensification rather than its duration, with droughts that develop much more rapidly than normal identified as flash droughts. There are two primary reasons for favoring the intensification approach over the duration approach. First, longevity and impact are fundamental characteristics of drought. Thus, short-term events lasting only a few days and having minimal impacts are inconsistent with the general understanding of drought and therefore should not be considered flash droughts. Second, by focusing on their rapid rate of intensification, the proposed “flash drought” definition highlights the unique challenges faced by vulnerable stakeholders who have less time to prepare for its adverse effects.},
author = {Otkin, Jason A. and Svoboda, Mark and Hunt, Eric D. and Ford, Trent W. and Anderson, Martha C. and Hain, Christopher and Basara, Jeffrey B.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0149.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {911--919},
title = {{Flash Droughts: A Review and Assessment of the Challenges Imposed by Rapid-Onset Droughts in the United States}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/5/bams-d-17-0149.1.xml},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Otkin2016,
abstract = {This study examines the evolution of several model-based and satellite-derived drought metrics sensitive to soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the extreme flash drought event that impacted major agricultural areas across the central U.S. during 2012. Standardized anomalies from the remote sensing based Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) and soil moisture anomalies from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) are compared to the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), surface meteorological conditions, and crop and soil moisture data compiled by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).Overall, the results show that rapid decreases in the ESI and NLDAS anomalies often preceded drought intensification in the USDM by up to 6. wk depending on the region. Decreases in the ESI tended to occur up to several weeks before deteriorations were observed in the crop condition datasets. The NLDAS soil moisture anomalies were similar to those depicted in the NASS soil moisture datasets; however, some differences were noted in how each model responded to the changing drought conditions. The VegDRI anomalies tracked the evolution of the USDM drought depiction in regions with slow drought development, but lagged the USDM and other drought indicators when conditions were changing rapidly. Comparison to the crop condition datasets revealed that soybean conditions were most similar to ESI anomalies computed over short time periods (2-4. wk), whereas corn conditions were more closely related to longer-range (8-12. wk) ESI anomalies. Crop yield departures were consistent with the drought severity depicted by the ESI and to a lesser extent by the NLDAS and VegDRI datasets.},
author = {Otkin, Jason A. and Anderson, Martha C. and Hain, Christopher and Svoboda, Mark and Johnson, David and Mueller, Richard and Tadesse, Tsegaye and Wardlow, Brian and Brown, Jesslyn},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.12.065},
issn = {01681923},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
keywords = {Agriculture,Crop impacts,Drought monitoring,Evapotranspiration,Flash drought,Satellite data,Soil moisture},
month = {mar},
pages = {230--242},
title = {{Assessing the evolution of soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the 2012 United States flash drought}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168192315300265},
volume = {218-219},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Otto2018ERL,
abstract = {In the period 2015–2017, the Western Cape region has suffered from three consecutive years of below average rainfall—leading to a prolonged drought and acute water shortages, most prominently in the city of Cape Town. After testing that the precipitation deficit is the primary driver behind the reduced surface water availability, we undertake a multi-method attribution analysis for the meteorological drought, defined in terms of a deficit in the 3 years running mean precipitation averaged over the Western Cape area. The exact estimate of the return time of the event is sensitive to the number of stations whose data is incorporated in the analysis but the rarity of the event is unquestionable, with a return time of more than a hundred years. Synthesising the results from five different large model ensembles as well as observed data gives a significant increase by a factor of three (95{\%} confidence interval 1.5–6) of such a drought to occur because of anthropogenic climate change. All the model results further suggest that this trend will continue with future global warming. These results are in line with physical understanding of the effect of climate change at these latitudes and highlights that measures to improve Cape Town's resilience to future droughts are an adaptation priority.},
author = {Otto, Friederike E L and Wolski, Piotr and Lehner, Flavio and Tebaldi, Claudia and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Hogesteeger, Sanne and Singh, Roop and Holden, Petra and Fu{\v{c}}kar, Neven S and Odoulami, Romaric C and New, Mark},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {12},
pages = {124010},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=12/a=124010?key=crossref.35ad5084aea266f5d9d87a469f223f30},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Otto-Bliesner2016,
abstract = {The climate of the past millennium provides a baseline for understanding the background of natural climate variability upon which current anthropogenic changes are superimposed. As this period also contains high data density from proxy sources (e.g., ice cores, stalagmites, corals, tree rings, and sediments), it provides a unique opportunity for understanding both global and regional-scale climate responses to natural forcing. Toward that end, an ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for the period 850–2005 (the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble, or CESM-LME) is now available to the community. This ensemble includes simulations forced with the transient evolution of solar intensity, volcanic emissions, greenhouse gases, aerosols, land-use conditions, and orbital parameters, both together and individually. The CESM-LME thus allows for evaluation of the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability to changes evident in the paleoclimate data record, as well as providing a longer-term perspective for understanding events in the modern instrumental period. It also constitutes a dynamically consistent framework within which to diagnose mechanisms of regional variability. Results demonstrate an important influence of internal variability on regional responses of the climate system during the past millennium. All the forcings, particularly large volcanic eruptions, are found to be regionally influential during the preindustrial period, while anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol changes dominate the forced variability of the mid- to late twentieth century.},
author = {Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. and Brady, Esther C. and Fasullo, John and Jahn, Alexandra and Landrum, Laura and Stevenson, Samantha and Rosenbloom, Nan and Mai, Andrew and Strand, Gary},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {735--754},
title = {{Climate Variability and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1},
volume = {97},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Otto-Bliesner2014,
author = {Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. and Russell, James M. and Clark, Peter U. and Liu, Zhengyu and Overpeck, Jonathan T. and Konecky, Bronwen and DeMenocal, Peter and Nicholson, Sharon E. and He, Feng and Lu, Zhengyao},
doi = {10.1126/science.1259531},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {dec},
number = {6214},
pages = {1223--1227},
title = {{Coherent changes of southeastern equatorial and northern African rainfall during the last deglaciation}},
volume = {346},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Oudar2020b,
abstract = {Understanding the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation response to CO2 forcing is challenging and complex due to the strong internal variability and the multiple potential CO2-induced effects. While a significant poleward shift of the jet is projected in summer, changes remain uncertain in winter. In this study, we investigate the boreal winter extratropical jet response to an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 in the CMIP6-generation global climate model CNRM-CM6-1. First, we show that the model performs better than the former generation CNRM-CM5 model in representing the atmospheric dynamics in the northern extratropics. Then, when atmospheric CO2 is quadrupled, CNRM-CM6-1 exhibits a strengthening and upward shift of the jet. A poleward shift is identified and robust in the Pacific in boreal winter. In the Atlantic, the jet response rather exhibits a squeezing, especially at the eastern part of the basin. It is found that changes are more robust across the Northern Hemisphere in early-winter than in late-winter season. Finally, the circulation response is broken down into individual contributions of various drivers. The uniform global mean component of the SST warming is found to explain most of the total atmospheric response to a quadrupling of CO2, with relatively smaller contributions from faster CO2 effects, the SST pattern change and the Arctic sea ice decline. The cloud radiative effect contribution is also assessed and found to be rather weak in the CNRM-CM6-1 model. This study highlights that long experiments are required to isolate the wintertime circulation response from the internal variability, and that idealized experimental setups are helpful to disentangle the physical drivers.},
author = {Oudar, Thomas and Cattiaux, Julien and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Geoffroy, Olivier and Saint-Martin, David and Roehrig, Romain},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-05113-4},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CNRM-CM6-1,CO2 increase,Eady growth rate,Jet position,Mid-latitude dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {2267--2285},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Robustness and drivers of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to a CO2-induced warming in CNRM-CM6-1}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05113-4 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-05113-4},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Oudar2020a,
abstract = {The wintertime midlatitude atmospheric circulation is evaluated in CMIP6 models. The biases have been reduced since CMIP5 although the low-level flow is still too zonal. CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections of 850 hPa zonal wind are then analyzed and are consistent under the RCP8.5 and the SSP5–8.5 scenarios, respectively. A poleward shift is identified in the Pacific, while a tripole structure is found in the North Atlantic: The zonal wind strengthens over Western Europe and decreases north and south. A multiple linear regression allows us to quantify the contribution of different drivers to the intermodel spread in zonal wind projections. It supports the importance of projected tropical warming and changes in the stratospheric vortex but also suggests a contribution of the asymmetry in the projected surface warming of the equatorial Pacific and of the present-day biases in the eddy-driven jet position. The North Atlantic warming hole plays a weaker role.},
author = {Oudar, Thomas and Cattiaux, Julien and Douville, Herv{\'{e}}},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086695},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {8},
pages = {1--9},
title = {{Drivers of the Northern Extratropical Eddy-Driven Jet Change in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models}},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Oueslati2016,
author = {Oueslati, Boutheina and Bony, Sandrine and Risi, Camille and Dufresne, Jean Louis},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-2998-6},
isbn = {0930-7575 1432-0894},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Cloud radiative effects,Evaporation,Precipitation  uncertainties},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2801--2815},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Interpreting the inter-model spread in regional precipitation projections in the tropics: role of surface evaporation and cloud radiative effects}},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Oueslati2015,
abstract = {The double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias still affects all the models that participate to CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5). As an ensemble, general circulation models have improved little between CMIP3 and CMIP5 as far as the double ITCZ is concerned. The present study proposes a new process-oriented metrics that provides a robust statistical relationship between atmospheric processes and the double ITCZ bias, additionally to the existing relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) and the double ITCZ bias. The SST contribution is examined using the THR-MLT index (Bellucci et al. in J Clim 5:1127-1145, ), which combines biases on the representation of local SSTs and the SST threshold leading to the onset of ascent in the double ITCZ region. As a metrics of a model's bias in simulating the interaction between circulation and precipitation, we propose to use the Combined Precipitation Circulation Error (CPCE). It is computed as the quadratic error on the contribution of each vertical regime to the total precipitation over the tropical oceans. CPCE is a global measure of the circulation-precipitation coupling that characterizes the model physical parameterizations rather than the regional characteristics of the eastern Pacific. A linear regression analysis shows that most of the double ITCZ spread among CMIP5 coupled ocean-atmosphere models is attributed to SST biases, and that the precipitation large-scale dynamics relationship explains a significant fraction of the bias in these models, as well as in the atmosphere-only models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]},
author = {Oueslati, Boutheina and Bellon, Gilles},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2468-6},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Coupled ocean–atmosphere feedbacks,Double },
number = {3-4},
pages = {585--607},
title = {{The double ITCZ bias in CMIP5 models: interaction between SST, large-scale circulation and precipitation}},
volume = {44},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Overland2016,
author = {Overland, James E. and Dethloff, Klaus and Francis, Jennifer A. and Hall, Richard J. and Hanna, Edward and Kim, Seong-Joong and Screen, James A. and Shepherd, Theodore G. and Vihma, Timo},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3121},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {992--999},
title = {{Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3121},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Overpeck:2013,
author = {Overpeck, Jonathan T},
doi = {10.1038/503350a},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {nov},
number = {7476},
pages = {350--351},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{The challenge of hot drought}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/503350a},
volume = {503},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Oyama2003,
abstract = {The existence of multiple climate-vegetation equilibria in Tropical South America is investigated under present-day climate conditions with the use of an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a potential vegetation model. Two stable equilibria were found. One corresponds to the current biome distribution. The second is a new equilibrium state: savannas replace eastern Amazonian forests and a semi-desert area appears in the driest portion of Northeast Brazil. If sustainable development and conservation policies were not able to halt the increasing environmental degradation in those areas, then land use changes could, per se, tip the climate-vegetation system towards this new alternative drier stable equilibrium state, with savannization of parts of Amazonia and desertification of the driest area of Northeast Brazil, and with potential adverse impacts on the rich species diversity in the former region and water resources in the latter.},
author = {Oyama, Marcos Daisuke and Nobre, Carlos Afonso},
doi = {10.1029/2003GL018600},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {2199},
title = {{A new climate–vegetation equilibrium state for Tropical South America}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2003GL018600},
volume = {30},
year = {2003}
}
@article{JoseDanielPabon-Caicedo1PaolaA.AriasAndreaF.CarrilJhanCarloEspinoza,
abstract = {The Andes is the most biodiverse region across the globe. In addition, some of the largest urban areas in South America are located within this region. Therefore, ecosystems and human population are affected by hydroclimate changes reported at global, regional and local scales. This paper summarizes progress of knowledge about long-term trends observed during the last two millennia over the entire Andes, with more detail for the period since the second half of the 20th century, and presents a synthesis of climate change projections by the end of the 21st century. In particular, this paper focuses on temperature, precipitation and surface runoff in the Andes. Changes in the Andean cryosphere are not included here since this particular topic is discussed in other paper in this Frontiers special issue, and elsewhere (e.g. IPCC,2019b). While previous works have reviewed the hydroclimate of South America and particular sectors (i.e., Amazon and La Plata basins, the Altiplano, Northern South America, etc.) this review includes for the first time the entire Andes region, considering all latitudinal ranges: tropical (North of 27°S), subtropical (27°S−37°S) and extratropical (South of 37°S). This paper provides a comprehensive view of past and recent changes, as well as available climate change projections, over the entire Andean range. From this review, the main knowledge gaps are highlighted and urgent research necessities in order to provide more mechanistic understanding of hydroclimate changes in the Andes and more confident projections of its possible changes in association with global climate change.},
author = {Pab{\'{o}}n-Caicedo, Jos{\'{e}} Daniel and Arias, Paola A. and Carril, Andrea F. and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Goubanova, Katerina and Lavado, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina A. and Villalba, Ricardo and Borrel, Llu{\'{i}}s Fita and Goubanova, Katerina and Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina A. and Villalba, Ricardo and Lavado, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina A. and Villalba, Ricardo and {Fita Borrel}, Llu{\'{i}}s and Goubanova, Katerina and Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina A. and Villalba, Ricardo and Lavado, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina A. and Villalba, Ricardo and Borrel, Llu{\'{i}}s Fita and Goubanova, Katerina and Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina A. and Villalba, Ricardo and Lavado, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina A. and Villalba, Ricardo and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Goubanova, Katerina and Lavado, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina A. and Villalba, Ricardo and {Fita Borrel}, Llu{\'{i}}s and Goubanova, Katerina and Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina A. and Villalba, Ricardo and Lavado, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina A. and Villalba, Ricardo},
doi = {10.3389/feart.2020.00061},
isbn = {2296-6463},
issn = {22966463},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
keywords = {climate change in the Andes,climate change scenarios for the Andes,global change in the Andes,hydroclimate of the Andes,hydroclimate projections of the Andes,hydroclimate trends in the Andes},
number = {61},
pages = {1--29},
title = {{Observed and Projected Hydroclimate Changes in the Andes}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2020.00061},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Padron2020,
abstract = {Human-induced climate change impacts the hydrological cycle and thus the availability of water resources. However, previous assessments of observed warming-induced changes in dryness have not excluded natural climate variability and show conflicting results due to uncertainties in our understanding of the response of evapotranspiration. Here we employ data-driven and land-surface models to produce observation-based global reconstructions of water availability from 1902 to 2014, a period during which our planet experienced a global warming of approximately 1 °C. Our analysis reveals a spatial pattern of changes in average water availability during the driest month of the year over the past three decades compared with the first half of the twentieth century, with some regions experiencing increased and some decreased water availability. The global pattern is consistent with climate model estimates that account for anthropogenic effects, and it is not expected from natural climate variability, supporting human-induced climate change as the cause. There is regional evidence of drier dry seasons predominantly in extratropical latitudes and including Europe, western North America, northern Asia, southern South America, Australia and eastern Africa. We also find that the intensification of the dry season is generally a consequence of increasing evapotranspiration rather than decreasing precipitation.},
author = {Padr{\'{o}}n, Ryan S. and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Decharme, Bertrand and Ducharne, Agn{\`{e}}s and Lawrence, David M. and Mao, Jiafu and Peano, Daniele and Krinner, Gerhard and Kim, Hyungjun and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-020-0594-1},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {7},
pages = {477--481},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Observed changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate change}},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Page2020,
abstract = {Abstract There is increased interest in the potential of tree planting to help mitigate flooding using nature-based solutions or natural flood management. However, many publications based upon catchment studies conclude that, as flood magnitude increases, benefit from forest cover declines and is insignificant for extreme flood events. These conclusions conflict with estimates of evaporation loss from forest plot observations of gross rainfall, through fall and stem flow. This study explores data from existing studies to assess the magnitudes of evaporation and attempts to identify the meteorological conditions under which they would be supported. This is achieved using rainfall event data collated from publications and data archives from studies undertaken in temperate environments around the world. The meteorological conditions required to drive the observed evaporation losses are explored theoretically using the Penman?Monteith equation. The results of this theoretical analysis are compared with the prevailing meteorological conditions during large and extreme rainfall events in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom to assess the likely significance of wet canopy evaporation loss. The collated dataset showed that event Ewc losses between approximately 2 and 38{\%} of gross rainfall (1.5 to 39.4?mm?day?1) have been observed during large rainfall events (up to 118?mm?day?1) and that there are few data for extreme events ({\textgreater}150?mm?day?1). Event data greater than 150?mm (reported separately) included similarly high percentage evaporation losses. Theoretical estimates of wet-canopy evaporation indicated that, to reproduce the losses towards the high end of these observations, relative humidity and the aerodynamic resistance for vapour transport needed to be lower than approximately 97.5{\%} and 0.5 to 2 s m?1 respectively. Surface meteorological data during large and extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom suggest that conditions favourable for high wet-canopy evaporation are not uncommon and indicate that significant evaporation losses during large and extreme events are possible but not for all events and not at all locations. Thus the disparity with the results from catchment studies remains.},
author = {Page, Trevor and Chappell, Nick A. and Beven, Keith J. and Hankin, Barry and Kretzschmar, Ann},
doi = {10.1002/hyp.13895},
issn = {0885-6087},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
keywords = {complex terrain,extreme events,interception loss,meteorological controls,natural flood management,upland United Kingdom,wet-canopy evaporation},
month = {nov},
number = {24},
pages = {4740--4754},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Assessing the significance of wet‐canopy evaporation from forests during extreme rainfall events for flood mitigation in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13895 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.13895},
volume = {34},
year = {2020}
}
@article{PAGESHydro2KConsortium2017,
abstract = {Abstract. Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy–model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy–model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy–model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.},
author = {{PAGES Hydro2K Consortium}},
doi = {10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1851--1900},
title = {{Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era}},
url = {https://www.clim-past.net/13/1851/2017/},
volume = {13},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Palerme2017b,
abstract = {On average, the models in the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project archive predict an increase in Antarctic precipitation from 5.5 to 24.5 {\%} between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099, depending on greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. This translates into a moderation of future sea level rise ranging from −19 to −71 mm between 2006 and 2099. However, comparison with CloudSat and ERA-Interim data show that almost all the models over-estimate current Antarctic precipitation, some by more than 100 {\%}. If only the models that agree with CloudSat data within 20 {\%} of error are considered, larger precipita-tion changes (from 7.4 to 29.3 {\%}) and impact on sea level (from −25 to −85 mm) are predicted. A common practice of averaging all models to evaluate climate projections thus leads to a significant underestimation of the contribution of Antarctic precipitation to future sea level. Models simulate, on average, a 7.4 {\%}/°C precipitation change with surface temperature warming. The models in better agreement with CloudSat observations for Antarctic snowfall predict, on average, larger temperature and Antarctic sea ice cover changes, which could explain the larger changes in Ant-arctic precipitation simulated by these models. The agree-ment between the models, CloudSat data and ERA-Interim is generally less in the interior of Antarctica than at the peripheries, but the interior is also where climate change will induce the smallest absolute change in precipitation. About three-quarters of the impact on sea level will result from precipitation change over the half most peripheral and lowest elevation part of the surface of Antarctica.},
author = {Palerme, Cyril and Genthon, Christophe and Claud, Chantal and Kay, Jennifer E. and Wood, Norman B. and L'Ecuyer, Tristan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3071-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {225--239},
title = {{Evaluation of current and projected Antarctic precipitation in CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3071-1},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pall2019,
abstract = {Rain-on-snow (ROS) events are multivariate hydrometeorological phenomena that require a combination of rain and snowpack, with complex processes occurring on and within the snowpack. Impacts include floods and landslides, and rain may freeze within the snowpack or on bare ground, potentially affecting vegetation, wildlife, and permafrost. ROS events occur mainly in high-latitude and mountainous areas, where sparse observational networks hinder accurate quantification—as does a scale mismatch between coarse-resolution (50–100 km) reanalysis products and localized events. Variability in the rain–snow temperature threshold and temperature sensitivity of snowmelt adds additional uncertainty. Here the high-resolution (1 km) seNorge hydrometeorological dataset, capturing complex topography and drainage networks, is utilized to produce the first large-scale climatology of ROS events for mainland Norway. For daily data spanning 1957–2016, suitable rain and snowpack thresholds for defining ROS events are applied to construct ROS climatologies for 1961–90 and 1981–2010 and to investigate trends. Differing ROS characteristics are found, reflecting Norway's diverse climates. Relative to 1961–90, events in the 1981–2010 period decrease most in the southwest low elevations in winter, southeast in spring, and north in summer (consistent with less snow cover in a warming climate) and increase most in the southwest high elevations, central mountains, and north in winter–spring (consistent with increased precipitation and/or more snow falling as rain in a warming climate). Winter–spring events also broadly correlate with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Scandinavia pattern—and more so with the Arctic Oscillation, particularly in the southern mountain region where long-term ROS trends are significant (+0.50 and +0.33 daily ROS counts per kilometer squared per decade for winter and spring).},
author = {Pall, Pardeep and Tallaksen, Lena M. and Stordal, Frode},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-18-0529.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {20},
pages = {6995--7016},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{A Climatology of Rain-on-Snow Events for Norway}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0529.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Palmer2015,
abstract = {Agricultural production across eastern Australia and New Zealand is highly vulnerable to drought, but there is a dearth of observational drought information prior to CE 1850. Using a comprehensive network of 176 drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies and one coral series, we report the first Southern Hemisphere gridded drought atlas extending back to CE 1500. The austral summer (December-February) Palmer drought sensitivity index reconstruction accurately reproduces historically documented drought events associated with the first European settlement of Australia in CE 1788, and the leading principal component explains over 50{\%} of the underlying variance. This leading mode of variability is strongly related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation tripole index (IPO), with a strong and robust antiphase correlation between (1) eastern Australia and the New Zealand North Island and (2) the South Island. Reported positive, negative, and neutral phases of the IPO are consistently reconstructed by the drought atlas although the relationship since CE 1976 appears to have weakened.},
author = {Palmer, Jonathan G. and Cook, Edward R and Turney, Chris S M and Allen, Kathy and Fenwick, Pavla and Cook, Benjamin I. and O'Donnell, Alison and Lough, Janice and Grierson, Pauline and Baker, Patrick},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO),eastern Australia,gridded summer drought atlas,multi-decadal hydroclimate variability,palaeoclimatology},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {124002},
title = {{Drought variability in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500–2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Paltan_2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2017. American Geophysical Union. While emerging regional evidence shows that atmospheric rivers (ARs) can exert strong impacts on local water availability and flooding, their role in shaping global hydrological extremes has not yet been investigated. Here we quantify the relative contribution of ARs variability to both flood hazard and water availability. We find that globally, precipitation from ARs contributes 22{\%} of total global runoff, with a number of regions reaching 50{\%} or more. In areas where their influence is strongest, ARs may increase the occurrence of floods by 80{\%}, while absence of ARs may increase the occurrence of hydrological droughts events by up to 90{\%}. We also find that {\~{}}300 million people are exposed to additional floods and droughts due the occurrence of ARs. ARs provide a source of hydroclimatic variability whose beneficial or damaging effects depend on the capacity of water resources managers to predict and adapt to them.},
annote = {Atmospheric Rivers contribute 22{\%} of total global runoff, increase the occurrence of floods by 80{\%}, whilst absence may increase the occurrence of hydrological droughts by up to 90{\%}},
author = {Paltan, Homero and Waliser, Duane and Lim, Wee Ho and Guan, Bin and Yamazaki, Dai and Pant, Raghav and Dadson, Simon},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074882},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {s,floods,water s},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {10387--10395},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Global Floods and Water Availability Driven by Atmospheric Rivers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017gl074882},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pan2015,
abstract = {Quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of the water lost to the atmosphere through land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for understanding the global hydrological cycle, but remains much uncertain. In this study, we use the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model to estimate the global terrestrial ET during 2000–2009 and project its changes in response to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 under two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2 and B1) during 2010–2099. Modeled results show a mean annual global terrestrial ET of about 549 (545–552) mm yr −1 during 2000–2009. Relative to the 2000s, global terrestrial ET for the 2090s would increase by 30.7 mm yr −1 (5.6{\%}) and 13.2 mm yr −1 (2.4{\%}) under the A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. About 60{\%} of global land area would experience increasing ET at rates of over 9.5 mm decade −1 over the study period under the A2 scenario. The Arctic region would have the largest ET increase (16{\%} compared with the 2000s level) due to larger increase in temperature than other regions. Decreased ET would mainly take place in regions like central and western Asia, north-ern Africa, Australia, eastern South America, and Greenland due to declines in soil moisture and changing rainfall patterns. Our results indicate that warming temperature and increasing precipitation would result in large increase in ET by the end of the 21st century, while increasing atmospheric CO 2 would be respon-sible for decrease in ET, given the reduction of stomatal conductance under elevated CO 2 .},
author = {Pan, Shufen and Tian, Hanqin and Dangal, Shree R.S. and Yang, Qichun and Yang, Jia and Lu, Chaoqun and Tao, Bo and Ren, Wei and Ouyang, Zhiyun},
doi = {10.1002/2014EF000263},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {climate change,evapotranspiration,terrestrial ecosystem modeling,terrestrial ecosystems},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {15--35},
title = {{Responses of global terrestrial evapotranspiration to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014EF000263},
volume = {3},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Pan2018,
author = {Pan, Xiaohua and Chin, Mian and Ichoku, Charles M. and Field, Robert D.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD028402},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {7974--7988},
title = {{Connecting Indonesian Fires and Drought With the Type of El Ni{\~{n}}o and Phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole During 1979–2016}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018JD028402},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Pan2019,
abstract = {Soil moisture (SM) is an important variable for the terrestrial surface system, as its changes greatly affect the global water and energy cycle. The description and understanding of spatiotemporal changes in global soil moisture require long time-series observation. Taking advantage of the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) combined SM dataset, this study aims at identifying the non-linear trends of global SM dynamics and their variations at multiple time scales. The distribution of global surface SM changes in 1979–2016 was identified by a non-linear methodology based on a stepwise regression at the annual and seasonal scales. On the annual scale, significant changes have taken place in about one third of the lands, in which nonlinear trends account for 48.13{\%}. At the seasonal scale, the phenomenon that “wet season get wetter, and dry season get dryer” is found this study via hemispherical SM trend analysis at seasonal scale. And, the changes in seasonal SM are more pronounced (change rate at seasonal scales is about 5 times higher than that at annual scale) and the areas seeing significant changes cover a larger surface. Seasonal SM fluctuations distributed in southwestern China, central North America and southern Africa, are concealed at the annual scale. Overall, non-linear trend analysis at multiple time scale has revealed more complex dynamics for these long time series of SM.},
author = {Pan, Ning and Wang, Shuai and Liu, Yanxu and Zhao, Wenwu and Fu, Bojie},
doi = {10.3390/w11050883},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {Multiple time scale,Nonlinear trend,Satellite data,Seasonal Time series},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {883},
title = {{Global Surface Soil Moisture Dynamics in 1979–2016 Observed from ESA CCI SM Dataset}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/5/883},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Panthou2014,
author = {Panthou, G. and Vischel, T. and Lebel, T.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3984},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Sahel,extreme rainfall,hydrological cycle intensification},
month = {dec},
number = {15},
pages = {3998--4006},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3984},
volume = {34},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Panthou2018,
author = {Panthou, G and Lebel, T and Vischel, T and Quantin, G and Sane, Y and Ba, A and Ndiaye, O and Diongue-Niang, A and Diopkane, M},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac334},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {064013},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: the Sahelian case}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=6/a=064013?key=crossref.97be9943c78ecacff82b3dcfa3e9c171},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Park2019,
abstract = {AbstractAs a contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), the global climate simulated by an atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM), the Seoul National University Atmosphere Model Version 0 with a Unified Convection Scheme (SAM0-UNICON), is compared with observation and climates simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) and Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1), on which SAM0-UNICON is based. Both SAM0-UNICON and CESM1 successfully reproduce observed global warming after 1970. The global mean climate simulated by SAM0-UNICON is roughly similar to that of CAM5/CESM1. However, SAM0-UNICON improves the simulations of the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, shortwave cloud forcing, near surface air temperature, aerosol optical depth, sea ice fraction, and sea surface temperature (SST), but is slightly poorer for the simulation of tropical relative humidity, Pacific surface wind stress, and ocean rainfall. Two important biases in the simulated mean c...},
author = {Park, Sungsu and Shin, Jihoon and Kim, Siyun and Oh, Eunsil and Kim, Yoonjae},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0796.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate models,Cloud parameterizations,Convective parameterization,Cumulus clouds},
number = {10},
pages = {2917--2949},
title = {{Global climate simulated by the Seoul National University Atmosphere Model version 0 with a unified convection scheme (SAM0-UNICON)}},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Park2020,
abstract = {Arctic river discharge increased over the last several decades, conveying heat and freshwater into the Arctic Ocean and likely affecting regional sea ice and the ocean heat budget. However, until now, there have been only limited assessments of riverine heat impacts. Here, we adopted a synthesis of a pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean model and a land surface model to quantify impacts of river heat on the Arctic sea ice and ocean heat budget. We show that river heat contributed up to 10{\%} of the regional sea ice reduction over the Arctic shelves from 1980 to 2015. Particularly notable, this effect occurs as earlier sea ice breakup in late spring and early summer. The increasing ice-free area in the shelf seas results in a warmer ocean in summer, enhancing ocean-atmosphere energy exchange and atmospheric warming. Our findings suggest that a positive river heat-sea ice feedback nearly doubles the river heat effect.},
author = {Park, Hotaek and Watanabe, Eiji and Kim, Youngwook and Polyakov, Igor and Oshima, Kazuhiro and Zhang, Xiangdong and Kimball, John S. and Yang, Daqing},
doi = {10.1126/SCIADV.ABC4699},
issn = {23752548},
journal = {Science Advances},
number = {45},
pages = {1--8},
pmid = {33158866},
title = {{Increasing riverine heat influx triggers Arctic sea ice decline and oceanic and atmospheric warming}},
volume = {6},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Parracho18ACP,
abstract = {Water vapour plays a key role in the climate system. However, its short residence time in the atmosphere and its high variability in space and time make it challenging when it comes to study trends and variability. There are several sources of water vapour data. In this work we use Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) estimated from GPS observations and atmospheric reanalyses. Monthly and seasonal means, interannual variability, and linear trends are analysed and compared for the period between 1995 and 2010. A general good agreement is found but this study highlights issues in both GPS and reanalysis data sets. In GPS, gaps and inhomogeneities in the time series are evidenced, which affect mainly variability and trend estimation. In ERA-Interim, too strong trends in certain regions (e.g. drying over northern Africa and Australia, and moistening over northern South America) were found. Representativeness differences in coastal areas and regions of complex topography (mountain ranges, islands) are also evidenced as limitations to the intercomparison of the point observations and reanalysis data. A general good agreement is found for the means and variabilities, with the exception of a few stations where representativeness issues are suspected. Monthly IWV trends are also found to be in good sign agreement, with the exception of a handful of stations where, in addition to representativeness errors, there might be inhomogeneities in the GPS time series. Seasonal trends are found to be different and more intense than monthly trends, which emphasizes the influence of atmospheric circulation on IWV trends. In order to assess strong trends over regions lacking GPS stations, a second reanalysis, MERRA-2, is introduced. The period of analysis is extended to 1980{\&}ndash;2016 (the longest period the reanalyses have in common) and differences with the shorter period are found. This exemplifies how much IWV trends are dependent on the time period at study and must be interpreted carefully. Temperature trends are also computed for both reanalyses. The Clausius-Clapeyron scaling ratio is found to not be a good humidity proxy at seasonal and regional scales. Regions over northern Africa and Australia, where ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 disagree, are investigated further. Dynamics at these regions is assessed by analyzing the wind fields at 925{\&}thinsp;hPa and is shown to be tightly linked with the trends and variability in IWV.},
author = {Parracho, Ana C. and Bock, Olivier and Bastin, Sophie},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-16213-2018},
issn = {16807324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {22},
pages = {16213--16237},
title = {{Global IWV trends and variability in atmospheric reanalyses and GPS observations}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/16213/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Parsons2014,
abstract = {We examine the response of the American Tropics to changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength using a set of water-hosing experiments with an Earth system model that explicitly simulates the global and regional carbon cycle. We find that a moderate weakening (27{\%}) of the AMOC, induced by a 0.1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s-1) freshwater addition in the northern North Atlantic, drives small but statistically significant drying in the South American monsoon region. By contrast, a complete shutdown of the AMOC, induced by a 1.0 Sv freshwater addition, acts to considerably shift the ITCZ southward, which changes the seasonal cycle of precipitation over Amazonia. Our results indicate that AMOC weakening can have a significant impact on the terrestrial primary productivity and carbon storage of the American Tropics.},
author = {Parsons, Luke A. and Yin, Jianjun and Overpeck, Jonathan T. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Malyshev, Sergey},
doi = {10.1002/2013GL058454},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Amazonia,Atlantic,carbon,freshening,hosing,precipitation},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {146--151},
title = {{Influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on the monsoon rainfall and carbon balance of the American tropics}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013GL058454},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Parsons2017,
abstract = {Accurate assessments of future climate impacts require realistic simulation of interannual–century-scale tem- perature and precipitation variability. Here, well-constrained paleoclimate data and the latest generation of Earth system model data are used to evaluate the magnitude and spatial consistency of climate variance distributions across interannual to centennial frequencies. It is found that temperature variance generally increases with time scale in patterns that are spatially consistent among models, especially over the mid- and high-latitude oceans. However, precipitation is similar to white noise across much of the globe. When Earth system model variance is compared to variance generated by simple autocorrelation, it is found that tropical temperature variability in Earth system models is difficult to distinguish from variability generated by simple autocorrelation. By contrast, both forced and unforced Earth system models produce variability distinct from a simple autoregressive process over most high-latitude oceans. This new analysis of tropical paleoclimate records suggests that low-frequency variance dominates the temperature spectrum across the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, but in many Earth system models, interannual variance dominates the simulated central and eastern tropical Pacific temperature spectrum, regardless of forcing. Tropical Pacific model spectra are compared to spectra from the instrumental record, but the short instrumental record likely cannot provide accurate multidecadal–centennial-scale variance estimates. In the coming decades, both forced and natural patterns of decade–century-scale variability will determine climate- related risks. Underestimating low-frequency temperature and precipitation variability may significantly alter our understanding of the projections of these climate impacts.},
author = {Parsons, Luke A. and Loope, Garrison R. and Overpeck, Jonathan T. and Ault, Toby R. and Stouffer, Ronald and Cole, Julia E.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0863.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {8885--8912},
title = {{Temperature and Precipitation Variance in CMIP5 Simulations and Paleoclimate Records of the Last Millennium}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0863.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Parsons2020,
author = {Parsons, L A},
doi = {10.1029/2020EF001608},
isbn = {0000000331470},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {10.1029/2020EF001608 and CMIP6,climate change,climate dynamics,climate model},
month = {sep},
number = {10},
pages = {e2020EF001608},
title = {{Implications of CMIP6 projected drying trends for 21st century Amazonian drought risk}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001608},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{parsons2018continuum,
abstract = {Drought has severe consequences for humans and their environment, yet we have a limited understanding of the drivers of drought across the full range of time scales on which it occurs. Here, the atmosphere and ocean conditions that drive this continuum of drought variability in southwestern North America (SWNA) are studied using the latest observationally based products, paleoclimate reconstructions, and state-of-the-art Earth system model simulations of the last millennium. A novel application of the self-organizing maps (SOM) methodology allows for a visualization of the continuum of climate states coinciding with thousands of droughts of varying lengths in last millennium simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS E2-R), and eight other members from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that most droughts are associated with a cool Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) pattern, but persistent droughts can coincide with a variety of ocean–atmosphere states, including time periods showing a warm PDO or weak ocean–atmosphere anomalies. Many CMIP5 models simulate similar SWNA teleconnection patterns, but the SOM analysis demonstrates that models simulate different continuums of ocean–atmosphere states coinciding with droughts of different lengths, suggesting fundamental differences in their drought dynamics. These findings have important implications for our understanding and simulation of the drivers of persistent drought, and for their potential predictability.},
author = {Parsons, Luke A and Coats, Sloan and Overpeck, Jonathan T},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0010.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {8627--8643},
title = {{The Continuum of Drought in Southwestern North America}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0010.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Pascale2017,
author = {Pascale, Salvatore and Boos, William R. and Bordoni, Simona and Delworth, Thomas L. and Kapnick, Sarah B. and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Zhang, Wei},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3412},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {oct},
number = {11},
pages = {806--812},
title = {{Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3412},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pascale2016,
abstract = {In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models participating to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions (southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia) and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to one month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over Northern Africa, Southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90 {\%} of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to two weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes.},
author = {Pascale, Salvatore and Lucarini, Valerio and Feng, Xue and Porporato, Amilcare and ul Hasson, Shabeh},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2648-4},
isbn = {0038201526},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CMIP5 models,Drought index,Monsoons,Rainfall seasonality indicators,Representative concentration pathways},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1331--1350},
title = {{Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2648-4},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Pascale202009144,
abstract = {Three consecutive dry winters (2015–2017) in southwestern South Africa (SSA) resulted in the Cape Town “Day Zero” drought in early 2018. The contribution of anthropogenic global warming to this prolonged rainfall deficit has previously been evaluated through observations and climate models. However, model adequacy and insufficient horizontal resolution make it difficult to precisely quantify the changing likelihood of extreme droughts, given the small regional scale. Here, we use a high-resolution large ensemble to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the probability of occurrence of multiyear SSA rainfall deficits in past and future decades. We find that anthropogenic climate change increased the likelihood of the 2015–2017 rainfall deficit by a factor of five to six. The probability of such an event will increase from 0.7 to 25{\%} by the year 2100 under an intermediate-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 [SSP2-4.5]) and to 80{\%} under a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). These results highlight the strong sensitivity of the drought risk in SSA to future anthropogenic emissions.},
author = {Pascale, Salvatore and Kapnick, Sarah B and Delworth, Thomas L and Cooke, William F},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2009144117},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {47},
pages = {29495--29503},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Increasing risk of another Cape Town “Day Zero” drought in the 21st century}},
url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/11/03/2009144117 http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.2009144117},
volume = {117},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pascale2019a,
abstract = {Purpose of Review: Understanding the details of the impact of global warming on the North and South America monsoons is of key importance for the well-being of a great number of inhabitants of the Americas. This review deals with the latest research on this topic. Recent Findings: Combined multiple datasets, high-resolution global climate models and regional convection–permitting models provide new insights on the evolution of the North and South American monsoons under global warming, suggesting a precipitation reduction in the North American Monsoon, the southward shift of the core of the South American Monsoon, and precipitation reduction in the Amazon Basin. These changes are accompanied by increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in both monsoon regions. Summary: Uncertainty in the response mechanisms to global warming remains high, especially for the North American monsoon. To make progress, the evaluation of local and remote drives is critical, for which we need a combined use of regional and global models.},
author = {Pascale, Salvatore and Carvalho, Leila M.V. and Adams, David K. and Castro, Christopher L. and Cavalcanti, Iracema F.A.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-019-00135-w},
issn = {21986061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Climate change,Glob,Global warming,North American monsoon,South American monsoon,climate change,global warming,north american monsoon,south american monsoon},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {125--144},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Current and Future Variations of the Monsoons of the Americas in a Warming Climate}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-019-00135-w},
volume = {5},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Pathirana2014,
abstract = {More than half of the humanity lives in cities and many cities are growing in size at a phenomenal rate. Urbanisation-driven landuse change influences the local hydrometeorological processes, changes the urban micro-climate and sometimes affects the precipitation significantly. Understanding the feedback of urbanisation driven micro-climatic changes on the rainfall process is a timely challenge. In this study we attempt to investigate the impact of urban growth driven landuse change on the changes in the extreme rainfall in and around cities, by means of sensitivity studies. We conduct three sets of controlled numerical experiments using a mesoscale atmospheric model coupled with a land surface model to investigate the hypothesis that the increasing urbanisation causes a significant increase of extreme rainfall values. First we conduct an ensemble of purely idealised simulations where we show that there is a significant increase of high intensity rainfall with the increase of urban landuse. Then four selected extreme rainfall events of different tropical cities were simulated with first current level of urbanisation and then (ideally) expanded urban areas. Three out of the four cases show a significant increase of local extreme rainfall when the urban area is increased. Finally, we conducted a focused study on the city of Mumbai, India: A landscape dynamics model Dinamica-EGO was used to develop a future urban growth scenario based on past trends. The predicted future landuse changes, with current landuse as control, were used as an input to the atmospheric model. The model was integrated for four historical cases which showed that, had these events occurred with the future landuse, the extreme rainfall outcome would have been significantly more severe. An analysis of extreme rainfall showed that hourly 10-year and 50-year rainfall would increase in frequency to 3-year and 22-year respectively. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier B.V.},
author = {Pathirana, Assela and Denekew, Hailu B. and Veerbeek, William and Zevenbergen, Chris and Banda, Allan T.},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.10.005},
isbn = {01698095},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Atmospheric model,Hydrometeorology,Landuse change,Urban growth,Urban heat island,Urbanisation},
month = {mar},
pages = {59--72},
pmid = {94692111},
title = {{Impact of urban growth-driven landuse change on microclimate and extreme precipitation – A sensitivity study}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809513002780},
volume = {138},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Patil2018,
abstract = {Recent studies point to combined effects of changes in regional land-use, anthropogenic aerosol forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) gradient on declining trends in the South Asian monsoon (SAM). This study attempted disentangling the effects produced by changes in SST gradient from those by aerosol levels in an atmospheric general circulation model. Two pairs of transient ensemble simulations were made, for a 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, with evolving versus climatological SSTs and with anthropogenic aerosol emissions fixed at 1971 versus 2010, in each case with evolution of the other forcing element, as well as GHGs. Evolving SST was linked to a widespread feedback on increased surface temperature, reduced land–sea thermal contrast and a weakened Hadley circulation, with weakening of cross-equatorial transport of moisture transport towards South Asia. Increases in anthropogenic aerosol levels (1971 versus 2010), led to an intensification of drying in the peninsular Indian region, through several regional pathways. Aerosol forcing induced north–south asymmetries in temperature and sea-level pressure response, and a cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal, leading to an easterly flow, which opposes the monsoon flow, suppressing moisture transport over peninsular India. Further, aerosol induced decreases in convection, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, evaporation flux and cloud fraction, in the peninsular region, were spatially congruent with reduced convective and stratiform rainfall. Overall, evolution of SST acted through a weakening of cross-equatorial moisture flow, while increases in aerosol levels acted through suppression of Arabian Sea moisture transport, as well as, of convection and vertical moisture transport, to influence the suppression of SAM rainfall.},
author = {Patil, Nitin and Venkataraman, Chandra and Muduchuru, Kaushik and Ghosh, Subimal and Mondal, Arpita},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4251-y},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Aerosol–cloud–rainfall interaction,Anthropogenic aerosols,ECHAM6-HAM,GCM simulations},
month = {may},
number = {3-4},
pages = {2287--2302},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Disentangling sea-surface temperature and anthropogenic aerosol influences on recent trends in South Asian monsoon rainfall}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4251-y},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Patterson2019,
abstract = {Many general circulation models fail to capture the observed frequency of atmospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere; however, few studies have examined models in the Southern Hemisphere and those studies that have, have often been based on only a few models. To provide a comprehensive view of how the current generation of coupled general circulation models performs in the Southern Hemisphere and how blocking frequency changes under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing, we examine the output of 23 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that models have differing biases during winter, when blocking occurrence is highest, though models underestimate blocking frequency south of Australia during summer. We show that models generally have a reduction in blocking frequency with future anthropogenic forcing, particularly in the Australia-New Zealand sector with the number of winter blocked days reduced by about one third by the end of the 21st century.},
author = {Patterson, Matthew and Bracegirdle, Thomas and Woollings, Tim},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083264},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Southern Hemisphere,atmospheric blocking,climate change},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {9281--9290},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking in CMIP5 and Future Changes in the Australia–New Zealand Sector}},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Paul2016,
abstract = {Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is traditionally linked with large-scale perturbations and circulations. However, the impacts of local changes in land use and land cover (LULC) on ISMR have yet to be explored. Here, we analyzed this topic using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data for the years 2000-2010 as a boundary condition and with LULC data from 1987 and 2005. The differences in LULC between 1987 and 2005 showed deforestation with conversion of forest land to crop land, though the magnitude of such conversion is uncertain because of the coarse resolution of satellite images and use of differential sources and methods for data extraction. We performed a sensitivity analysis to understand the impacts of large-scale deforestation in India on monsoon precipitation and found such impacts are similar to the observed changes in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude. We found that deforestation results in weakening of the ISMR because of the decrease in evapotranspiration and subsequent decrease in the recycled component of precipitation.},
author = {Paul, Supantha and Ghosh, Subimal and Oglesby, Robert and Pathak, Amey and Chandrasekharan, Anita and Ramsankaran, Raaj},
doi = {10.1038/srep32177},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Hydrology},
month = {oct},
number = {1},
pages = {32177},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall due to Changes in Land Use Land Cover}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep32177},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Pausata:2016,
author = {Pausata, Francesco S.R. and Messori, Gabriele and Zhang, Qiong},
doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2015.11.049},
issn = {0012821X},
journal = {Earth and Planetary Science Letters},
month = {jan},
pages = {298--307},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Impacts of dust reduction on the northward expansion of the African monsoon during the Green Sahara period}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012821X15007530},
volume = {434},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Pausata2020,
abstract = {In the future, the Sahara and Sahelian regions could experience more rainfall than today as a result of climate change. Wetter periods, termed African humid periods, occurred in the past and witnessed a mesic landscape in place of today's hyperarid and semiarid environment. Such large past changes raise the question of whether the near future might hold in store similar environmental transformations, particularly in view of the growing human-induced climate, land-use, and land-cover changes. In the last decades, geoengineering initiatives (in the form of active re-greening projects of the Sahara and Sahel) have been proposed and could have significant effects on the climate of the region. Here, we synthesize the literature on past and projected changes in the hydroclimate of the Sahelian-Saharan region and the associated feedbacks. We further address the current state of knowledge concerning Saharan and Sahelian afforestation projects and their consequences. Our review underscores the importance of vegetation in land-atmosphere-ocean feedback processes and the far-field impacts of northern African ecosystem changes.},
author = {Pausata, Francesco S.R. and Gaetani, Marco and Messori, Gabriele and Berg, Alexis and {Maia de Souza}, Danielle and Sage, Rowan F. and DeMenocal, Peter B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2020.03.002},
issn = {25903322},
journal = {One Earth},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {235--250},
title = {{The Greening of the Sahara: Past Changes and Future Implications}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2590332220301007},
volume = {2},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pausata2015,
author = {Pausata, Francesco S. R. and Chafik, Leon and Caballero, Rodrigo and Battisti, David S.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1509153112},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {45},
pages = {13784--13788},
title = {{Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1509153112},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Pausata2015a,
abstract = {Large volcanic eruptions have strong impacts on both atmospheric and ocean dynamics that can last for decades. Numerical models have attempted to reproduce the effects of major volcanic eruptions on climate; however, there are remarkable inter-model disagreements related to both short-term dynamical response to volcanic forcing and long-term oceanic evolution. The lack of robust simulated behaviour is related to various aspects from model formulation to simulated background internal variability to the eruption details. Here, we use the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 to calculate interactively the volcanic aerosol loading resulting from SO2 emissions of the second largest high-latitude volcanic eruption in historical time (the Laki eruption of 1783). We use two different approaches commonly used interchangeably in the literature to generate ensembles. The ensembles start from different background initial states, and we show that the two approaches are not identical on short-time scales ({\textless} 1 yr) in discerning the volcanic effects on climate, depending on the background initial state in which the simulated eruption occurred. Our results also show that volcanic eruptions alter surface climate variability (in general increasing it) when aerosols are allowed to realistically interact with circulation: Simulations with fixed volcanic aerosol show no significant change in surface climate variability. Our simulations also highlight that the change in climate variability is not a linear function of the amount of the volcanic aerosol injected. We then provide a tentative estimation of the ensemble size needed to discern a given volcanic signal on surface temperature from the natural internal variability on regional scale: At least 20-25 members are necessary to significantly detect seasonally averaged anomalies of 0.5°C; however, when focusing on North America and in winter, a higher number of ensemble members (35-40) is necessary.},
author = {Pausata, Francesco S. R. and Grini, Alf and Caballero, Rodrigo and Hannachi, Abdel and Seland, {\O}yvind},
doi = {10.3402/tellusb.v67.26728},
issn = {1600-0889},
journal = {Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {26728},
title = {{High-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Norwegian Earth System Model: the effect of different initial conditions and of the ensemble size}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/tellusb.v67.26728},
volume = {67},
year = {2015}
}
@article{pm15,
author = {Payne, Ashley E and Magnusdottir, Gudrun},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD023586},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11173--11190},
title = {{An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD023586},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Payne2020,
abstract = {Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are characterized by intense moisture transport, which, on landfall, produce precipitation which can be both beneficial and destructive. ARs in California, for example, are known to have ended drought conditions but also to have caused substantial socio-economic damage from landslides and flooding linked to extreme precipitation. Understanding how AR characteristics will respond to a warming climate is, therefore, vital to the resilience of communities affected by them, such as the western USA, Europe, East Asia and South Africa. In this Review, we use a theoretical framework to synthesize understanding of the dynamic and thermodynamic responses of ARs to anthropogenic warming and connect them to observed and projected changes and impacts revealed by observations and complex models. Evidence suggests that increased atmospheric moisture (governed by Clausius–Clapeyron scaling) will enhance the intensity of AR-related precipitation — and related hydrological extremes — but with changes that are ultimately linked to topographic barriers. However, due to their dependency on both weather and climate-scale processes, which themselves are often poorly constrained, projections are uncertain. To build confidence and improve resilience, future work must focus efforts on characterizing the multiscale development of ARs and in obtaining observations from understudied regions, including the West Pacific, South Pacific and South Atlantic. Due to their intense moisture transport, atmospheric rivers are associated with hydrological hazards such as extreme rainfall and flooding. This Review discusses how atmospheric-river characteristics and impacts may change with warming, synthesizing physical theory, observations and modelling.},
author = {Payne, Ashley E. and Demory, Marie-Estelle and Leung, L. Ruby and Ramos, Alexandre M. and Shields, Christine A. and Rutz, Jonathan J. and Siler, Nicholas and Villarini, Gabriele and Hall, Alex and Ralph, F. Martin},
doi = {10.1038/s43017-020-0030-5},
issn = {2662-138X},
journal = {Nature Reviews Earth {\&} Environment},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {143--157},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
title = {{Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0030-5},
volume = {1},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Peano2019,
abstract = {Vegetation phenology and its variability have substantial influence on land-atmosphere interaction, and changes in growing season length are additional indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems. For these reasons, global land surface models are routinely evaluated in order to assess their ability to reproduce the observed phenological variability. In this work, we present a new approach that integrates a wider spectrum of growing season modes, in order to better describe the observed variability in vegetation growing season onset and offset, as well as assess the ability of state-of-the-art land surface models to capture this variability at the global scale. The method is applied to the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) simulations and LAI3g satellite observation. The comparison between data and model outputs shows that CLM4.5 is capable of reproducing the growing season features in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude and high latitude, but also displays its limitations in areas where water availability acts as the main driver of vegetation phenological activity. Besides, the new approach allows evaluating land surface models in capturing multigrowing-season phenology. In this regard, CLM4.5 proves its ability in reproducing the two-growing-season cycles in the Horn of Africa. In general, the new methodology expands the area of analysis from northern midlatitude and high latitude to the global continental areas and allows to assess the vegetation response to the ongoing climate change in a larger variety of ecosystems, ranging from semiarid regions to rain forests, passing through temperate deciduous and boreal evergreen forests.},
author = {Peano, D. and Materia, S. and Collalti, A. and Alessandri, A. and Anav, A. and Bombelli, A. and Gualdi, S.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JG004881},
issn = {2169-8953},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences},
keywords = {CLM4.5,LAI3g,land surface model,plant phenology,validation},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {3569--3587},
title = {{Global Variability of Simulated and Observed Vegetation Growing Season}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JG004881},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Pechlivanidis2017,
abstract = {Weinvestigatesimulatedhydrologicalextremes(i.e.,highandlowflows)underthe present and future climatic conditions for five river basins worldwide: the Ganges, Lena, Niger, Rhine, and Tagus. Future projections are based on five GCMs and four emission scenarios. We analyse results from the HYPE, mHM, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 hydro- logical models calibrated and validated to simulate each river. The use of different impact models and future projections allows for an assessment of the uncertainty of future impacts. The analysis of extremes is conducted for four different time horizons: reference (1981–2010), early-century (2006–2035), mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099). In addi- tion, Sen's non-parametric estimator of slope is used to calculate the magnitude of trend in extremes, whose statistical significance is assessed by the Mann–Kendall test. Overall, the impact of climate change is more severe at the end of the century and particularly in dry regions. High flows are generally sensitive to changes in precipitation, however sensitivity varies between the basins. Finally, results show that conclusions in climate change impact studies can be highly influenced by uncertainty both in the climate and impact models, whilst the sensitivity to climate modelling uncertainty becoming greater than hydrological model uncertainty in the dry regions.},
author = {Pechlivanidis, I. G. and Arheimer, B. and Donnelly, C. and Hundecha, Y. and Huang, S. and Aich, V. and Samaniego, L. and Eisner, S. and Shi, P.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1723-0},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {apr},
number = {3},
pages = {467--481},
title = {{Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions}},
volume = {141},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pederson2014,
abstract = {Although many studies have associated the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate, few have investigated the connection between an ameliorating environment, surplus resources, energy, and the rise of empires. The 13th-century Mongol Empire was the largest contiguous land empire in world history. Although drought has been proposed as one factor that spurred these conquests, no high-resolution moisture data are available during the rapid development of the Mongol Empire. Here we present a 1,112-y tree-ring reconstruction of warm-season water balance derived from Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees in central Mongolia. Our reconstruction accounts for 56{\%} of the variability in the regional water balance and is significantly correlated with steppe productivity across central Mongolia. In combination with a gridded temperature reconstruction, our results indicate that the regional climate during the conquests of Chinggis Khan's (Genghis Khan's) 13th-century Mongol Empire was warm and persistently wet. This period, characterized by 15 consecutive years of above-average moisture in central Mongolia and coinciding with the rise of Chinggis Khan, is unprecedented over the last 1,112 y. We propose that these climate conditions promoted high grassland productivity and favored the formation of Mongol political and military power. Tree-ring and meteorological data also suggest that the early 21st-century drought in central Mongolia was the hottest drought in the last 1,112 y, consistent with projections of warming over Inner Asia. Future warming may overwhelm increases in precipitation leading to similar heat droughts, with potentially severe consequences for modern Mongolia.},
author = {Pederson, N. and Hessl, A. E. and Baatarbileg, N. and Anchukaitis, K. J. and {Di Cosmo}, N.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1318677111},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {12},
pages = {4375--4379},
title = {{Pluvials, droughts, the Mongol Empire, and modern Mongolia}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1318677111},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Pedron2017,
author = {Pedron, Isabel Tamara and {Silva Dias}, Maria A. F. and {de Paula Dias}, Sandra and Carvalho, Leila M. V. and Freitas, Edmilson D.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4773},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1250--1264},
title = {{Trends and variability in extremes of precipitation in Curitiba – Southern Brazil}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4773},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pei2016,
abstract = {AbstractIrrigation's effects on precipitation during an exceptionally dry summer (June–August 2012) in the United States were quantified by incorporating a novel dynamic irrigation scheme into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The scheme is designed to represent a typical application strategy for farmlands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) and a satellite-derived irrigation map was incorporated into the WRF-Noah-Mosaic module to realistically trigger the irrigation. Results show that this new irrigation approach can dynamically generate irrigation water amounts that are in close agreement with the actual irrigation water amounts across the high plains (HP), where the prescribed scheme best matches real-world irrigation practices. Surface energy and water budgets have been substantially altered by irrigation, leading to modified large-scale atmospheric circulations. In the studied dry summer, irrigation was found to strengthen the dominant interior high pressure system over the ...},
author = {Pei, Lisi and Moore, Nathan and Zhong, Shiyuan and Kendall, Anthony D. and Gao, Zhiqiu and Hyndman, David W.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0337.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Applications,Atmosphere-land interaction,Climate models,Land surface model,Land use,Model evaluation/performance,Models and modeling,Physical meteorology and climatology,Regional models},
month = {mar},
number = {10},
pages = {3541--3558},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Effects of irrigation on summer precipitation over the United States}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0337.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Peings2014,
abstract = {The wintertime Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric circulation response to current (2007–12) and projected (2080–99) Arctic sea ice decline is examined with the latest version of theCommunity Atmospheric Model (CAM5). The numerical experiments suggest that the current sea ice conditions force a remote at- mospheric response in late winter that favors cold land surface temperatures over midlatitudes, as has been observed in recent years. Anomalous Rossby waves forced by the sea ice anomalies penetrate into the stratosphere in February and weaken the stratospheric polar vortex, resulting in negative anomalies of the northern annular mode (NAM) that propagate downward during the following weeks, especially over the North Pacific. The seasonality of the response is attributed to timing of the phasing between the forced and climatological waves. When sea ice concentration taken from projections of conditions at the end of the twenty-first century is prescribed to the model, negative anomalies of theNAMare visible in the troposphere, both in early and late winter. This response is mainly driven by the large warming of the lower troposphere over the Arctic, as little impact is found in the stratosphere in this experiment. As a result of the thermal expansion of the polar troposphere, the westerly flow is decelerated and a weak but statistically significant increase of the midlatitude meanders is identified. However, the thermodynamical response extends beyond the Arctic and offsets the dynamical effect, such that the stronger sea ice forcing has limited impact on the intensity of cold extremes over midlatitudes. 1.},
author = {Peings, Yannick and Magnusdottir, Gudrun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00272.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {1},
pages = {244--264},
title = {{Response of the Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation to Current and Projected Arctic Sea Ice Decline: A Numerical Study with CAM5}},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{pcgb16,
author = {Pekel, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Cottam, Andrew and Gorelick, Noel and Belward, Alan S},
doi = {10.1038/nature20584},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {dec},
number = {7633},
pages = {418--422},
title = {{High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature20584},
volume = {540},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Pendergrass2014a,
abstract = {Changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall are an important potential impact of climate change. Two modes of change, a shift and an increase, are applied to simulations of global warming with models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The response to CO2 doubling in the multimodel mean of CMIP5 daily rainfall is characterized by an increase of 1{\%} K−1 at all rain rates and a shift to higher rain rates of 3.3{\%} K−1. In addition to these increase and shift modes of change, some models also show a substantial increase in rainfall at the highest rain rates called the extreme mode of response to warming. In some models, this extreme mode can be shown to be associated with increases in grid-scale condensation or gridpoint storms.},
author = {Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00183.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate models,Convective parameterization,Hydrologic cycle,Precipitation,Rainfall},
number = {22},
pages = {8372--8383},
title = {{Changes in the distribution of rain frequency and intensity in response to global warming}},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Pendergrass_2014,
abstract = {AbstractThe frequency and intensity of rainfall determine its character and may change with climate. A methodology for characterizing the frequency and amount of rainfall as functions of the rain rate is developed. Two modes of response are defined, one in which the distribution of rainfall increases in equal fraction at all rain rates and one in which the rainfall shifts to higher or lower rain rates without a change in mean rainfall.This description of change is applied to the tropical distribution of daily rainfall over ENSO phases in models and observations. The description fits observations and most models well, although some models also have an extreme mode in which the frequency increases at extremely high rain rates. The multimodel mean from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) agrees with observations in showing a very large shift of 14{\%}–15{\%} K−1, indicating large increases in the heaviest rain rates associated with El Ni{\~{n}}o. Models with an extreme mode response to global wa...},
annote = {rainfall changes decomosed into mean and shift changes in distribution: 14-15{\%}/K increase in heavy rain rates with warming associated to ENSO variability in models and observations},
author = {Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00182.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,ENSO,Hydrologic cycle,Precipitation,Rainfall},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {8357--8371},
pmid = {344774200005},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Two modes of change of the distribution of rain}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2Fjcli-d-14-00182.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Pendergrass_2016,
abstract = {The rate of increase of extreme precipitation in response to global warming varies dramatically across climate model simulations, particularly over the tropics, for reasons that have yet to be established. Here we propose one potential mechanism: changing organization of convection with climate. We analyze a set of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with an idealized global radiative-convective equilibrium configuration forced by fixed sea surface temperatures varying in 2{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}} increments from 285 to {\{}307{\~{}}K.{\}} In these simulations, convective organization varies from semiorganized in cold simulations, disorganized in warm simulations, and abruptly becomes highly organized at just over {\{}300{\~{}}K.{\}} The change in extreme precipitation with warming also varies across these simulations, including a large increase at the transition from disorganized to organized convection. We develop an extreme precipitation-focused metric for convective organization and use this to explore their connection.},
annote = {diversity in extreme precipitation response to warming linked to convective organisation
KEY REFERENCE},
author = {Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Reed, Kevin A. and Medeiros, Brian},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071285},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate modeling hydrologic sensitivity,organized },
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11445--11452},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The link between extreme precipitation and convective organization in a warming climate: Global radiative–convective equilibrium simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2016gl071285},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Pendergrass2015,
abstract = {The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree global-mean surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings and across emissions scenarios with differing composition of change in forcing. We investigate whether or not the rate of change of extreme precipitation also varies across the four emissions scenarios that force the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 multimodel ensemble. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily precipitation per degree global warming in the multimodel ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extratropical land. These results indicate that in contrast to mean precipitation, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario in most models.},
author = {Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Lehner, Flavio and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Xu, Yangyang},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL065854},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change global climate models},
number = {20},
pages = {8767--8774},
title = {{Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?}},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Pendergrass2019,
abstract = {The response of extreme precipitation to warming varies widely among climate models, especially in the tropics. In some models, there have been indications that the rate of response increases with warming—that the response is not linear. We investigate the evolution of extreme precipitation, quantified by the maximum accumulated precipitation in a day each year, in CESM1. We find that tropical‐ and global‐average extreme precipitation is related to global‐mean surface temperature quadratically. This behavior is associated with an increase in the large‐scale fraction of extreme precipitation and also strengthening circulation on extreme precipitation days. Compared to other CMIP5 models, the nonlinearity in CESM1 is among the largest. One implication is that the difference between CESM1 simulations with full forcing and with fixed aerosols cannot be used to isolate the response of extreme precipitation to aerosols, as the resulting climates are not equally warm.},
author = {Pendergrass, A. G. and Coleman, D. B. and Deser, C and Lehner, F and Rosenbloom, N and Simpson, I. R.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084826},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {17-18},
pages = {10551--10560},
title = {{Nonlinear Response of Extreme Precipitation to Warming in CESM1}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL084826 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084826},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Pendergrass2017,
abstract = {Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66{\%} of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4{\%} K−1 globally, 4–5{\%} K−1 over land and 2–4{\%} K−1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.},
author = {Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Knutti, Reto and Lehner, Flavio and Deser, Clara and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y},
isbn = {2045-2322},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {1--9},
pmid = {29269737},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pendergrass2020,
abstract = {Purpose of Review: What does recent work say about how changes in convective organization could lead to changes in extreme precipitation? Recent Findings: Changing convective organization is one mechanism that could explain variation in extreme precipitation increase through dynamics. In models, the effects of convective self-aggregation on extreme precipitation are sensitive to parameterization, among other factors. In both models and observations, whether or not convective organization influences extreme precipitation is sensitive to the time and space scales analyzed, affecting extreme precipitation on some scales but not others. While trends in observations in convective organization associated with mean precipitation have been identified, it has not yet been established whether these trends are robust or relevant for events associated with extreme precipitation. Summary: Recent work has documented a somewhat view of how changes in convective organization could affect extreme precipitation with warming, and it remains unclear whether or not they do.},
author = {Pendergrass, Angeline G.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-020-00157-9},
issn = {21986061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Climate change,Convective organization,Extreme precipitation},
number = {2},
pages = {47--54},
publisher = {Current Climate Change Reports},
title = {{Changing Degree of Convective Organization as a Mechanism for Dynamic Changes in Extreme Precipitation}},
volume = {6},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pendergrass2020a,
abstract = {Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.},
author = {Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Meehl, Gerald A. and Pulwarty, Roger and Hobbins, Mike and Hoell, Andrew and AghaKouchak, Amir and Bonfils, C{\'{e}}line J. W. and Gallant, Ailie J. E. and Hoerling, Martin and Hoffmann, David and Kaatz, Laurna and Lehner, Flavio and Llewellyn, Dagmar and Mote, Philip and Neale, Richard B. and Overpeck, Jonathan T. and Sheffield, Amanda and Stahl, Kerstin and Svoboda, Mark and Wheeler, Matthew C. and Wood, Andrew W. and Woodhouse, Connie A.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {191--199},
title = {{Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0709-0},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pendergrass2020b,
abstract = {We examine the response of globally averaged precipitation to global warming—the hydrologic sensitivity (HS)—in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble. Multi-model mean HS is 2.5{\%} K−1 (ranging from 2.1–3.1{\%} K−1 across models), a modest decrease compared to CMIP5 (where it was 2.6{\%} K−1). This new set of simulations is used as an out-of-sample test for observational constraints on HS proposed based on CMIP5. The constraint based on clear-sky shortwave absorption sensitivity to water vapor has weakened, and it is argued that a proposed constraint based on surface low cloud longwave radiative effects does not apply to HS. Finally, while a previously proposed mechanism connecting HS and climate sensitivity via low clouds is present in the CMIP6 ensemble, it is not an important factor for variations in HS. This explains why HS is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles.},
author = {Pendergrass, A. G.},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL089964},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP,climate change,climate models,climate sensitivity,emergent constraints},
month = {aug},
number = {17},
pages = {e2020GL089964},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The Global-Mean Precipitation Response to CO2-Induced Warming in CMIP6 Models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089964},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Peng2013b,
abstract = {Trends in the duration or extent of snow cover are expected to feedback to temperature trends. We analyzed trends in dates of onset and termination of snow cover in relation to temperature over the past 27 years (1980-2006) from over 636 meteorological stations in the Northern Hemisphere. Different trends in snow duration are observed over North America and Eurasia. Over North America, the termination date of snow cover remained stable during the 27 years, whereas over Eurasia it has advanced by 2.6 ± 5.6 d decade-1. Earlier snow cover termination is systematically correlated on a year-to-year basis with a positive temperature anomaly during the snowmelt month with a sensitivity of -0.077 °C d-1. These snow feedbacks to air temperature are more important in spring, because high net radiation is coupled with thin snow cover. {\textcopyright} 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.},
author = {Peng, Shushi and Piao, Shilong and Ciais, Philippe and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Zhou, Liming and Wang, Tao},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014008},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,climate feedback,global warming phenology},
number = {1},
pages = {014008},
title = {{Change in snow phenology and its potential feedback to temperature in the Northern Hemisphere over the last three decades}},
volume = {8},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Pepler2016,
abstract = {The east coast of Australia is regularly influenced by midlatitude cyclones known as East Coast Lows. These form in a range of synoptic situations and are both a cause of severe weather and an important contributor to water security. This paper presents the first projections of future cyclone activity in this region using a regional climate model ensemble, with the use of a range of cyclone identification methods increasing the robustness of results. While there is considerable uncertainty in projections of cyclone frequency during the warm months, there is a robust agreement on a decreased frequency of cyclones during the winter months, when they are most common in the current climate. However, there is a potential increase in the frequency of cyclones with heavy rainfall and those closest to the coast and accordingly those with potential for severe flooding.},
author = {Pepler, Acacia S and Luca, Alejandro Di and Ji, Fei and Alexander, Lisa V and Evans, Jason P and Sherwood, Steven C},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL067267},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {1},
pages = {334--340},
title = {{Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century}},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Perry2019,
abstract = {As the dominant driver of interannual climate variability globally, any changes in the remote impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to climate change are of considerable importance. Here we assess whether climate models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) project robust changes in ENSO's regional temperature and precipitation teleconnections in the late 21st century, comparing the historical simulations (between 1950 and 1999) and high-emission future simulations (between 2040 and 2089). In order to quantify the importance of internal variability in these projected changes, we examine an ensemble of coupled model simulations from the Max-Planck-Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE). Except for a few regions, the changes in ENSO's temperature and precipitation teleconnections for most regions are not significant across the majority of models. Exceptions include consistent projected changes to temperature teleconnections over equatorial South America and East Africa, which are robust during La Niña events. Despite this, by assessing all regions together, a significant amplification of the temperature teleconnections is identified for La Niña events. Additionally, we find an overall projected weakening relative to the historical precipitation teleconnection when analysis is limited to regions that correctly reproduce the observed precipitation teleconnections. It remains unclear to what extent a change in regional ENSO teleconnections will be apparent, as it is clear that the changes in ENSO's teleconnections are relatively small compared to the regional variability during the historical period.},
author = {Perry, S. J. and McGregor, S. and {Sen Gupta}, A. and England, M. H. and Maher, N.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-05006-6},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {395--412},
title = {{Projected late 21st century changes to the regional impacts of the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-05006-6},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pervez2015,
abstract = {Abstract. We evaluated the spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins as modulated by the El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes using Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) full data reanalysis of monthly global land-surface precipitation data from 1901 to 2010 with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. The GPCC monthly total precipitation climatology targeting the period 1951–2000 was used to compute gridded monthly anomalies for the entire time period. The gridded monthly anomalies were averaged for the years influenced by combinations of climate modes. Occurrences of El Ni{\~{n}}o alone significantly reduce (88{\%} of the long-term average (LTA)) precipitation during the monsoon months in the western and southeastern Ganges Basin. In contrast, occurrences of La Ni{\~{n}}a and co-occurrences of La Ni{\~{n}}a and negative IOD events significantly enhance (110 and 109{\%} of LTA in the Ganges and Brahmaputra Basin, respectively) precipitation across both basins. When El Ni{\~{n}}o co-occurs with positive IOD events, the impacts of El Ni{\~{n}}o on the basins' precipitation diminishes. When there is no active ENSO or IOD events (occurring in 41 out of 110 years), precipitation remains below average (95{\%} of LTA) in the agriculturally intensive areas of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Western Nepal in the Ganges Basin, whereas precipitation remains average to above average (104{\%} of LTA) across the Brahmaputra Basin. This pattern implies that a regular water deficit is likely, especially in the Ganges Basin, with implications for the agriculture sector due to its reliance on consistent rainfall for successful production. Historically, major droughts occurred during El Ni{\~{n}}o and co-occurrences of El Ni{\~{n}}o and positive IOD events, while major flooding occurred during La Ni{\~{n}}a and co-occurrences of La Ni{\~{n}}a and negative IOD events in the basins. This observational analysis will facilitate well-informed decision making in minimizing natural hazard risks and climate impacts on agriculture, and supports development of strategies ensuring optimized use of water resources in best management practice under a changing climate.},
author = {Pervez, M. S. and Henebry, G. M.},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-15-147-2015},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {147--162},
title = {{Spatial and seasonal responses of precipitation in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins to ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole modes: implications for flooding and drought}},
url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/147/2015/},
volume = {15},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Peters2018,
abstract = {Severe droughts in the Northern Hemisphere cause a widespread decline of agricultural yield, the reduction of forest carbon uptake, and increased CO2 growth rates in the atmosphere. Plants respond to droughts by partially closing their stomata to limit their evaporative water loss, at the expense of carbon uptake by photosynthesis. This trade-off maximizes their water-use efficiency (WUE), as measured for many individual plants under laboratory conditions and field experiments. Here we analyse the 13C/12C stable isotope ratio in atmospheric CO2 to provide new observational evidence of the impact of droughts on the WUE across areas of millions of square kilometres and spanning one decade of recent climate variability. We find strong and spatially coherent increases in WUE along with widespread reductions of net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere during severe droughts that affected Europe, Russia and the United States in 2001–2011. The impact of those droughts on WUE and carbon uptake by vegetation is substantially larger than simulated by the land-surface schemes of six state-of-the-art climate models. This suggests that drought-induced carbon–climate feedbacks may be too small in these models and improvements to their vegetation dynamics using stable isotope observations can help to improve their drought response.},
annote = {observed variations in plant water use efficiency suggests climate models underestimate drought-induced carbon-cycle feedbacks},
author = {Peters, Wouter and van der Velde, Ivar R. and van Schaik, Erik and Miller, John B. and Ciais, Philippe and Duarte, Henrique F. and van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. and van der Molen, Michiel K. and Scholze, Marko and Schaefer, Kevin and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Verhoef, Anne and W{\aa}rlind, David and Zhu, Dan and Tans, Pieter P. and Vaughn, Bruce and White, James W. C.},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-018-0212-7},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {744--748},
title = {{Increased water-use efficiency and reduced CO2 uptake by plants during droughts at a continental scale}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0212-7},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Peterson2000,
abstract = {Sedimentary time series of color reflectance and major element chemistry from the anoxic Cariaco Basin off the coast of northern Venezuela record large and abrupt shifts in the hydrologic cycle of the tropical Atlantic during the past 90,000 years. Marine productivity maxima and increased precipitation and riverine discharge from northern South America are closely linked to interstadial (warm) climate events of marine isotope stage 3, as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Increased precipitation at this latitude during interstadials suggests the potential for greater moisture export from the Atlantic to Pacific, which could have affected the salinity balance of the Atlantic and increased thermohaline heat transport to high northern latitudes. This supports the notion that tropical feedbacks played an important role in modulating global climate during the last glacial period.},
author = {Peterson, Larry C. and Haug, Gerald H. and Hughen, Konrad A. and Röhl, Ursula},
doi = {10.1126/science.290.5498.1947},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {dec},
number = {5498},
pages = {1947--1951},
title = {{Rapid Changes in the Hydrologic Cycle of the Tropical Atlantic During the Last Glacial}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.290.5498.1947},
volume = {290},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Petoukhov2016,
abstract = {In boreal spring-to-autumn (May-to-September) 2012 and 2013, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has experienced a large number of severe midlatitude regional weather extremes. Here we show that a considerable part of these extremes were accompanied by highly magnified quasistationary midlatitude planetary waves with zonal wave numbers m = 6, 7, and 8. We further show that resonance conditions for these planetary waves were, in many cases, present before the onset of high-amplitude wave events, with a lead time up to 2 wk, suggesting that quasiresonant amplification (QRA) of these waves had occurred. Our results support earlier findings of an important role of the QRA mechanism in amplifying planetary waves, favoring recent NH weather extremes.},
author = {Petoukhov, Vladimir and Petri, Stefan and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Coumou, Dim and Kornhuber, Kai and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1606300113},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {atmospheric dynamics,heat waves,planetary waves,waveguides,weather extremes},
month = {jun},
number = {25},
pages = {6862--6867},
pmid = {27274064},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Role of quasiresonant planetary wave dynamics in recent boreal spring-to-autumn extreme events}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27274064},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Petoukhov2013,
abstract = {In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere has suffered several devastating regional summer weather extremes, such as the European heat wave in 2003, the Russian heat wave and the Indus river flood in Pakistan in 2010, and the heat wave in the United States in 2011. Here, we propose a common mechanism for the generation of persistent longitudinal planetary-scale high-amplitude patterns of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Those patterns--with zonal wave numbers m = 6, 7, or 8--are characteristic of the above extremes. We show that these patterns might result from trapping within midlatitude waveguides of free synoptic waves with zonal wave numbers k ≈ m. Usually, the quasistationary dynamical response with the above wave numbers m to climatological mean thermal and orographic forcing is weak. Such midlatitude waveguides, however, may favor a strong magnification of that response through quasiresonance.},
author = {Petoukhov, Vladimir and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Petri, Stefan and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222000110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {14},
pages = {5336--5341},
pmid = {23457264},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222000110},
volume = {110},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Petrie2014,
abstract = {In the southwestern United States, monsoon precipitation can affect changes to the land surface, vegetation communities and ecosystem services. To better understand monsoon precipitation, we quantified change in precipitation properties from 1910 to 2010 at 22 sites across the northern Chihuahuan Desert using United States Historical Climatology Network daily data. We also assessed precipitation variability at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR) - located at the desert's ecological boundary - using daily data from a recent 10-year period. Evaluating precipitation at these locations allows for comparison of precipitation variability between ecologically-stable ecoregions and the less-stable boundaries where ecological change may be more likely to occur. Regional data from 1910 to 2010 show an increase in the number of precipitation events, a decrease in their magnitude, and also an increase in the length of extreme periods with and without precipitation. At the SNWR, total precipitation is influenced by a small number of large events, while the majority of events (65{\%}) have an insignificant effect. These analyses suggest that local variability in precipitation may be greater than is often attributed to the summer monsoon, and the difference between wet and dry monsoons depends on the occurrence of a small number of large events. •Precipitation events have become smaller and more numerous from 1910 to 2010.•Extreme periods of days with/without rain have increased in length from 1910 to 2010.•Locally, the largest 25{\%} of events drive total monsoon precipitation.•Variability in local precipitation is high and may rarely reflect long-term averages.•This local variability is likely not captured in Global Climate Model outputs. {\textcopyright} 2014 Elsevier Ltd.},
author = {Petrie, M. D. and Collins, S. L. and Gutzler, D. S. and Moore, D. M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.01.005},
issn = {01401963},
journal = {Journal of Arid Environments},
keywords = {Climate change,Extreme events,Sevilleta,Southwestern United States,Spatial and temporal scaling},
pages = {63--70},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Regional trends and local variability in monsoon precipitation in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, USA}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.01.005},
volume = {103},
year = {2014}
}
@misc{Petrova2018,
abstract = {Recent observational studies have demonstrated the relevance of soil moisture heterogeneity and the associated thermally-induced circulation on deep convection and rainfall triggering. However, whether this dynamical mechanism further influences rainfall properties{\&}mdash;such as rain volume or timing{\&}mdash;has yet to be confirmed by observational data. Here, we analyze 10 years of satellite-based sub-daily soil moisture and precipitation records and explore the potential of strong spatial gradients in morning soil moisture to influence the properties of afternoon rainfall in the North African region, at the 100-km scale. We find that the convective rain systems that form over locally drier soils and anomalously strong soil moisture gradients have a tendency to initiate earlier in the afternoon; they also yield lower volumes of rain, weaker intensity and lower spatial variability. The strongest sensitivity to antecedent soil conditions is identified for the timing of the rain onset; it is found to be correlated with the magnitude of the soil moisture gradient. Further analysis shows that the early initiation of rainfall over dry soils and strong surface gradients yet requires the presence of a very moist boundary layer on that day. Our findings agree well with the expected effects of thermally-induced circulation on rainfall properties suggested by theoretical studies and point to the potential of locally drier and heterogeneous soils to influence convective rainfall development. The systematic nature of the identified effect of soil moisture state on the onset time of rainstorms in the region is of particular relevance and may help foster research on rainfall predictability.},
author = {Petrova, Irina Y and Miralles, Diego G and {Van Heerwaarden}, Chiel C and Wouters, Hendrik},
booktitle = {Remote Sensing},
doi = {10.3390/rs10060969},
isbn = {2072-4292},
keywords = {convective rainfall initiation,semi-arid Sahel heterogeneity-precipitation coupling},
number = {6},
pages = {969},
title = {{Relation between Convective Rainfall Properties and Antecedent Soil Moisture Heterogeneity Conditions in North Africa}},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Pfahl2016,
abstract = {Extratropical precipitation is largely associated with the passage of cyclones. Here the relative importance of cyclone intensity and moisture availability for cyclone precipitation is investigated using reanalysis data. It is shown that 69{\%} of the event-to-event variability of precipitation in the cyclones' intensification phase is explained by a simple scaling relationship using as predictor the product of cyclone intensity (measured in terms of near-surface wind speed) and total column water vapor (TCWV) in the cyclone region. Differences in the correlation of cyclone intensity with precipitation before and after the time of maximum intensity are potentially related to effects of latent heating on cyclone intensification. For subtropical cyclones, intensity alone is a good predictor of the associated precipitation, whereas at higher latitudes, where moisture availability is more limited, TCWV is an important independent factor. The results from this study may be used to better understand and constrain future regional-scale precipitation changes.},
author = {Pfahl, S. and Sprenger, M.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL068018},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {extratropical cyclones,precipitation},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1752--1758},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{On the relationship between extratropical cyclone precipitation and intensity}},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Pfahl_2017,
abstract = {Regional projections of daily extreme precipitation are uncertain, but can be decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to improve understanding. While thermodynamics alone uniformly increase extreme precipitation, dynamical processes introduce regional variations.},
author = {Pfahl, S. and O'Gorman, P. A. and Fischer, E. M. and O'Gorman, P A and Fischer, E. M. and O'Gorman, P. A. and Fischer, E. M.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3287},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {thermo},
month = {may},
number = {6},
pages = {423--427},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fnclimate3287},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{pscgw15,
abstract = {Atmospheric blocking is a key component of extratropical weather variability 1 and can contribute to various types of extreme weather events 2–5 . Changes in blocking frequencies due to Arctic amplification and sea ice loss may enhance extreme events 6,7 , but the mechanisms potentially involved in such changes are under discussion 8–11 . Current theories for blocking are essentially based on dry dynamics and do not directly take moist processes into account 12–17 . Here we analyse a 21-year climatology of blocking from reanalysis data with a Lagrangian approach, to quantify the release of latent heat in clouds along the trajectories that enter the blocking systems. We show that 30 to 45{\%} of the air masses involved in Northern Hemisphere blocking are heated by more than 2 K—with a median heating of more than 7 K—in the three days before their arrival in the blocking system. This number increases to 60 to 70{\%} when considering a seven-day period. Our analysis reveals that, in addition to quasi-horizontal advection of air with low potential vorticity 12–15 , ascent from lower levels associated with latent heating in clouds is of first-order importance for the formation and maintenance of blocking. We suggest that this process should be accounted for when investigating future changes in atmospheric blocking. Atmospheric blocking refers to the formation of large-amplitude synoptic-scale quasi-stationary anticyclones in the extratropics, which typically extend vertically over the entire troposphere. Blocking influences local weather conditions and particularly the formation of extreme weather events in various ways. In summer over the continents between 50 • and 70 • N, blocking favours co-located warm temperature extremes mainly due to adiabatic warming in the regionally confined circulation and clear-sky radiative heating 4 . In winter, blocking can be important for the equatorward advection of polar air masses downstream and the subsequent occurrence of cold spells 2,3 . Dipolar configurations of blocking and surface cyclones are often associated with near-surface wind extremes 5 , and blocking can act as a precursor to heavy precipitation events downstream 2 . However, potential future changes of the frequency and location of blocking and related weather extremes are still largely uncertain 8–10 . Furthermore, climate models typically exhibit biases in the representation of blocking 18 and weather prediction models sometimes fail in accurately forecasting blocking onset, maintenance or decay 19 . It is thus essential to better understand and quantify the mechanisms leading to blocking formation. A variety of theories have been proposed that describe differ-ent mechanisms involved in blocking dynamics, but a complete theory of the blocking life cycle is still missing (see the overview in ref. 17). Planetary-scale theories focus on large-scale waves and their interaction with the topography. Local theories emphasize the role of wave breaking 16 and the isentropic advection of air with low potential vorticity (PV) into the blocking region 12–15 . All these theories are essentially based on dry atmospheric dynamics, and diabatic processes have been considered only in an indirect way, for example, through the triggering of Rossby waves by tropical convection 13 . There are only few studies pointing to direct diabatic effects on blocking: substantial diabatic contributions to the in-tensification of two blocking systems in the Southern Hemisphere have been identified in ref. 20, whereas diabatic effects have been found to be of secondary importance for blocking formation over Siberia in ref. 21. Backward trajectory calculations from North Atlantic blockings during selected winters presented in refs 22,23 indicate that latent heating is often involved in the upward transport of air with low PV into the upper-tropospheric blocking. In this study, again a combined PV and Lagrangian approach is used to systematically assess the relevance of this diabatic mechanism for Northern Hemisphere blocking based on 21 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Different indices have been developed to identify blocking based on geopotential height, potential temperature ($\theta$) or PV (see the methodological discussion in ref. 18). Here the approach of ref. 24 is applied, which identifies blocking as regions with anomalously low vertically integrated PV in the middle to upper troposphere that are quasi-stationary and exist for at least five days 4,24,25 (see Methods). This PV-based definition enables us to objectively identify air masses in the upper troposphere that are involved in blocking. Kinematic backward trajectories using three-dimensional reanalysis winds 26 are calculated to reconstruct the history of these air masses and determine the sources of the low-PV air. By tracing the evolution of $\theta$ and PV along more than 10 8 trajectories during the 21 years, we can discriminate between adiabatic PV advection (as described in the classical blocking theories 12–15) and cross-isentropic transport due to in-cloud latent heating, and climatologically assess the frequency of the two mechanisms. The robustness of our results with respect to the blocking identification is evaluated through comparison with a more classical blocking index based on geopotential height 27 . The PV-based index identifies blocking mainly over the North Pacific (40 • –60 • N) and North Atlantic (50 • –70 • N) in all seasons and over the Arctic in summer 4 (Supplementary Fig. 1). By design of the PV-based index, all blocking trajectories are characterized by negative PV anomalies (calculated as the deviation of the tra-jectory's PV from the seasonal climatology at the same location) at day 0—that is, at the time of arrival in the blocking region (black line in Supplementary Fig. 2). For the geopotential height index, the PV anomaly distribution at day 0 is very similar (dashed line in Supplementary Fig. 2), corroborating that the two indices identify dynamically comparable features. The key question now},
author = {Pfahl, S. and Schwierz, C. and Croci-Maspoli, M. and Grams, C. M. and Wernli, H.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2487},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {8},
pages = {610--614},
title = {{Importance of latent heat release in ascending air streams for atmospheric blocking}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2487},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Pfleiderer2018,
abstract = {Heat and rainfall extremes have intensified over the past few decades and this trend is projected to continue with future global warming1–3. A long persistence of extreme events often leads to societal impacts with warm-and-dry conditions severely affecting agriculture and consecutive days of heavy rainfall leading to flooding. Here we report systematic increases in the persistence of boreal summer weather in a multi-model analysis of a world 2 °C above pre-industrial compared to present-day climate. Averaged over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land area, the probability of warm periods lasting longer than two weeks is projected to increase by 4{\%} (2–6{\%} full uncertainty range) after removing seasonal-mean warming. Compound dry–warm persistence increases at a similar magnitude on average but regionally up to 20{\%} (11–42{\%}) in eastern North America. The probability of at least seven consecutive days of strong precipitation increases by 26{\%} (15–37{\%}) for the mid-latitudes. We present evidence that weakening storm track activity contributes to the projected increase in warm and dry persistence. These changes in persistence are largely avoided when warming is limited to 1.5 °C. In conjunction with the projected intensification of heat and rainfall extremes, an increase in persistence can substantially worsen the effects of future weather extremes.},
author = {Pfleiderer, Peter and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Coumou, Dim},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0},
issn = {1758-6798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {9},
pages = {666--671},
title = {{Boreal summer weather becomes more persistent in a warmer world}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Philip2018,
abstract = {In northern and central Ethiopia, 2015 was a very dry year. Rainfall was only from one-half to three-quarters of the usual amount, with both the "belg" (February-May) and "kiremt" rains (June-September) affected. The timing of the rains that did fall was also erratic. Many crops failed, causing food shortages for many millions of people. The role of climate change in the probability of a drought like this is investigated, focusing on the large-scale precipitation deficit in February-September 2015 in northern and central Ethiopia. Using a gridded analysis that combines station data with satellite observations, it is estimated that the return period of this drought was more than 60 years (lower bound 95{\%} confidence interval), with a most likely value of several hundred years. No trend is detected in the observations, but the large natural variability and short time series means large trends could go undetected in the observations. Two out of three large climate model ensembles that simulated rainfall reasonably well show no trend while the third shows an increased probability of drought. Taking the model spread into account the drought still cannot be clearly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, with the 95{\%} confidence interval ranging from a probability decrease between preindustrial and today of a factor of 0.3 and an increase of a factor of 5 for a drought like this one or worse. A soil moisture dataset also shows a nonsignificant drying trend. According to ENSO correlations in the observations, the strong 2015 El Ni{\~{n}}o did increase the severity of the drought.},
author = {Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah F. and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Otto, Friederike and O'Keefe, Sarah and Haustein, Karsten and King, Andrew and Zegeye, Abiy and Eshetu, Zewdu and Hailemariam, Kinfe and Singh, Roop and Jjemba, Eddie and Funk, Chris and Cullen, Heidi},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0274.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Africa,Climate change,Climate models,Drought,ENSO,Statistical techniques},
number = {6},
pages = {2465--2486},
title = {{Attribution analysis of the Ethiopian drought of 2015}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{pkmtxwcst17,
author = {Phillips, Thomas J and Klein, Stephen A and Ma, Hsi‐Yen and Tang, Qi and Xie, Shaocheng and Williams, Ian N and Santanello, Joseph A. and Cook, David R. and Torn, Margaret S},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027141},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11524--11548},
title = {{Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Climate Model Simulations of Land–Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027141 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD027141},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Phillips2015,
abstract = {Ocean acidification will likely result in a drop of 0.3–0.4 pH units in the surface ocean by 2100, assuming anthropogenic CO2 emissions continue at the current rate. Impacts of increasing atmospheric pCO2 on pH in freshwater systems have scarcely been addressed. In this study, the Laurentian Great Lakes are used as a case study for the potential for CO2-induced acidification in freshwater systems as well as for assessment of the ability of current water quality monitoring to detect pH trends. If increasing atmospheric pCO2 is the only forcing, pH will decline in the Laurentian Great Lakes at the same rate and magnitude as the surface ocean through 2100. High-resolution numerical models and one high-resolution time series of data illustrate that the pH of the Great Lakes has significant spatio-temporal variability. Because of this variability, data from existing monitoring systems are insufficient to accurately resolve annual mean trends. Significant measurement uncertainty also impedes the ability to assess trends. To elucidate the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 in the Great Lakes requires pH monitoring by collecting more accurate measurements with greater spatial and temporal coverage.},
author = {Phillips, Jennifer C. and McKinley, Galen A. and Bennington, Val and Bootsma, Harvey A. and Pilcher, Darren J. and Sterner, Robert W. and Urban, Noel R.},
doi = {10.5670/oceanog.2015.37},
issn = {10428275},
journal = {Oceanography},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {136--145},
publisher = {Oceanography Society},
title = {{The Potential for CO2-Induced Acidification in Freshwater: A Great Lakes Case Study}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Piazza2016,
abstract = {A high-resolution global atmospheric model is used to investigate the influence of the representation of small-scale North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the atmosphere during boreal winter. Two ensembles of forced simulations are performed and com- pared. In the first ensemble (HRES), the full spatial reso- lution of the SST is maintained while small-scale features are smoothed out in the Gulf Stream region for the second ensemble (SMTH). The model shows a reasonable clima- tology in term of large-scale circulation and air–sea inter- action coefficient when compared to reanalyses and satel- lite observations, respectively. The impact of small-scale SST patterns as depicted by differences between HRES and SMTH shows a strong meso-scale local mean response in terms of surface heat fluxes, convective precipitation, and to a lesser extent cloudiness. The main mechanism behind these statistical differences is that of a simple hydrostatic pressure adjustment related to increased SST and marine atmospheric boundary layer temperature gradient along the North Atlantic SST front. The model response to small- scale SST patterns also includes remote large-scale effects: upper tropospheric winds show a decrease downstream of the eddy-driven jet maxima over the central North Atlan- tic, while the subtropical jet exhibits a significant north- ward shift in particular over the eastern Mediterranean region. Significant changes are simulated in regard to the North Atlantic storm track, such as a southward shift of the storm density off the coast of North America towards the maximum SST gradient. A storm density decrease is also depicted over Greenland and the Nordic seas while a signif- icant increase is seen over the northern part of the Mediter- ranean basin. Changes in Rossby wave breaking frequen- cies and weather regimes spatial patterns are shown to be associated to the jets and storm track changes.},
author = {Piazza, Marie and Terray, Laurent and Bo{\'{e}}, Julien and Maisonnave, Eric and Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2669-z},
isbn = {0038201526},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Air–sea interaction,North Atlantic weather regimes,Rossby wave breaking,Storm track,The Gulf Stream},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1699--1717},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Influence of small-scale North Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns on the marine boundary layer and free troposphere: a study using the atmospheric ARPEGE model}},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Pires2013,
abstract = {Deforestation on Amazonia and central Brazil Cerrado could change regional climate, possibly shifting forest equilibrium into a bioclimatic envelope typical of savannas. Although impacts of climate change induced by deforestation are likely to vary subregionally, the potential geographic variation of these effects and the thresholds of rainforest and Cerrado removal that will affect Amazonian bioclimatic equilibrium remain unknown. We evaluate the effects of deforestation scenarios of increasing severity on the bioclimatic equilibrium of Amazon subregions. Results indicate that subregional precipitation responds in three distinct ways to progressive deforestation: a near-constant rate of reduction, a rapid drop for low deforestation levels, and a decrease after intermediate deforestation levels. Additionally, while inner forest regions remain inside rainforest bioclimatic envelope, outer forest regions may cross forest-savanna bioclimatic threshold even at low deforestation levels. We argue that at least 90{\%} of Amazonia and 40{\%} of Cerrado should be sustained to avoid subregional bioclimatic savannization.},
author = {Pires, Gabrielle Ferreira and Costa, Marcos Heil},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50570},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Amazon deforestation,Amazon equilibrium,Cerrado deforestation,Climate Change,Sub-regional climate},
number = {14},
pages = {3618--3623},
title = {{Deforestation causes different subregional effects on the Amazon bioclimatic equilibrium}},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Plesca2018JClim,
abstract = {Atmosphere-only CMIP5 idealized climate experiments with quadrupling of atmospheric CO 2 are analyzed to understand the fast response of the tropical overturning circulation to this forcing and the main mechanism of this response. A new metric for the circulation, based on pressure velocity in the subsidence regions, is defined, taking advantage of the dynamical stability of these regions and their reduced sensitivity to the GCM's cloud and precipitation parameterization schemes. This definition permits us to decompose the circulation change into a sum of relative changes in subsidence area, static stability, and heating rate. A comparative analysis of aqua- and Earth-like planet experiments reveals the effect of the land–sea contrast on the total change in circulation. On average, under the influence of CO 2 increase without surface warming, the atmosphere radiatively cools less, and this drives the 3{\%}–4{\%} slowdown of the tropical circulation. Even in an Earth-like planet setup, the circulation weakening is dominated by the radiatively driven changes in the subsidence regions over the oceans. However, the land–sea differential heating contributes to the vertical pattern of the circulation weakening by driving the vertical expansion of the tropics. It is further found that the surface warming would, independently of the CO 2 effect, lead to up to a 12{\%} slowdown in circulation, dominated by the enhancement of the static stability in the upper troposphere. The two mechanisms identified above combine in the coupled experiment with abrupt quadrupling, causing a circulation slowdown (focused in the upper troposphere) of up to 18{\%}. Here, the independent effect of CO 2 has a considerable impact only at time scales less than one year, being overtaken quickly by the impact of surface warming.},
annote = {Idealised global 4xCO2 experiments applying subsidence region vertical motion diagnostics identifies 3-4{\%} slowdown of tropical circulation, dominated by reduced tropospheric radiative cooling in ocean subsidence regions with land-sea differential heating contributing to vertical pattern of weakening through vertical expansion of the tropics. Surface warming subsequently leads to up to 12{\%} slowdown in circulation, dominated by the enhancement of the static stability in the upper troposphere.},
author = {Plesca, Elina and Buehler, Stefan A. and Gr{\"{u}}tzun, Verena},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0086.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {9903--9920},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The Fast Response of the Tropical Circulation to CO2 Forcing}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0086.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0086.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{phwk16,
author = {Pokhrel, Y N and Hanasaki, N and Wada, Y and Kim, H},
doi = {10.1002/wat2.1150},
journal = {WIREs Water},
pages = {548--574},
title = {{Recent progresses in incorporating human land–water management into global land surface models toward their integration into Earth system models}},
volume = {3},
year = {2016}
}
@article{pkyhlko15,
author = {Pokhrel, Yadu N and Koirala, Sujan and Yeh, Pat J.‐F. and Hanasaki, Naota and Longuevergne, Laurent and Kanae, Shinjiro and Oki, Taikan},
doi = {10.1002/2014WR015602},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {78--96},
title = {{Incorporation of groundwater pumping in a global Land Surface Model with the representation of human impacts}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014WR015602},
volume = {51},
year = {2015}
}
@article{pfsys17,
author = {Pokhrel, Yadu N and Felfelani, Farshid and Shin, Sanghoon and Yamada, Tomohito J. and Satoh, Yusuke},
doi = {10.1186/s40562-017-0076-5},
issn = {2196-4092},
journal = {Geoscience Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {10},
title = {{Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-017-0076-5 http://geoscienceletters.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40562-017-0076-5},
volume = {4},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Polade2017,
abstract = {In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-Tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California's more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.},
author = {Polade, Suraj D. and Gershunov, Alexander and Cayan, Daniel R. and Dettinger, Michael D. and Pierce, David W.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {10783},
pmid = {28883636},
title = {{Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11285-y},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Polade2014,
abstract = {Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.},
author = {Polade, Suraj D. and Pierce, David W. and Cayan, Daniel R. and Gershunov, Alexander and Dettinger, Michael D.},
doi = {10.1038/srep04364},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {mar},
pages = {1--8},
pmid = {24621567},
title = {{The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep04364},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Polk2017a,
abstract = {Receding mountain glaciers affect the hydrology of downslope ecosystems with consequences for drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower production. Here we combined land cover derived from satellite imagery and other environmental data from the northern Peruvian Andes into a first differencing regression model to assess wetland hydrologic connectivity. Wetland area was considered the response variable and a variety of land cover, climatic, and stream discharge explanatory variables were tested to evaluate effects of possible hydrologic connectivity. The results indicate that there were two primary spatial driving forces of wetland change in Peru's Cordillera Blanca from 1987 to 1995: 1) loss in glacier area was associated with increased wetland area, controlling for other factors; while 2) an increase in mean annual stream discharge in the previous 12 months increased wetland area. The general approach we used expands the ways that connectivity between landscape changes and hydrologic and ecosystem processes can be assessed.},
author = {Polk, Molly H. and Young, Kenneth R. and Baraer, Michel and Mark, Bryan G. and McKenzie, Jeffrey M. and Bury, Jeffrey and Carey, Mark},
doi = {10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.11.004},
issn = {01436228},
journal = {Applied Geography},
month = {jan},
pages = {94--103},
title = {{Exploring hydrologic connections between tropical mountain wetlands and glacier recession in Peru's Cordillera Blanca}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0143622816307329},
volume = {78},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Polson2016,
abstract = {Some of the most damaging impacts of climate change are a consequence of changes to the global water cycle. Atmospheric warming causes the water cycle to intensify, increasing both atmospheric water vapor concentrations and global precipitation and enhancing existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P − E ). This relationship between temperature and precipitation therefore makes understanding how precipitation has changed with global temperatures in the past crucial for projecting changes with future warming. In situ observations cannot readily estimate global precipitation sensitivity to temperature (d P /d T ), as land precipitation changes are affected by water limitation. Satellite observations of precipitation over ocean are only available after 1979, but studies based on them suggest a precipitation sensitivity over wet tropical (30N–30S) oceans that exceeds the Clausius–Clapeyron value. Here, we determine for the first time precipitation sensitivity using longer (1930–2005), island-based in situ observations to estimate d P /d T over islands. The records show a robust pattern of increasing precipitation in the tropics and decreasing precipitation in the subtropics, as predicted from physical arguments, and heavy precipitation shows a stronger sensitivity than mean precipitation over many islands. The pattern and magnitude of island-based d P /d T agree with climate models if masked to island locations, supporting model predictions of future changes.},
annote = {long island records confirm simulated tendencies for wet oceans regions to become wetter and low rainfall ocean regions drier with tropical warming},
author = {Polson, D. and Hegerl, G. C. and Solomon, S.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074024},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate models,islands,precipitation,precipitation sensitivity to temperature},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {74024},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074024},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Polson2013,
abstract = {While changes in land precipitation during the last 50 years have been attributed in part to human influences, results vary by season, are affected by data uncertainty and do not account for changes over ocean. One of the more physically robust responses of the water cycle to warming is the expected amplification of existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation. Here, precipitation changes in wet and dry regions are analyzed from satellite data for 1988–2010, covering land and ocean. We derive fingerprints for the expected change from climate model simulations that separately track changes in wet and dry regions. The simulations used are driven with anthropogenic and natural forcings combined, and greenhouse gas forcing or natural forcing only. Results of detection and attribution analysis show that the fingerprint of combined external forcing is detectable in observations and that this intensification of the water cycle is partly attributable to greenhouse gas forcing.},
author = {Polson, D. and Hegerl, G. C. and Allan, R. P. and Sarojini, B. Balan},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50923},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {detection and attribution,precipitation,water cycle},
number = {17},
pages = {4783--4787},
title = {{Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions?}},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Polson2017,
abstract = {The wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier paradigm (WWDD) is widely used to summarize the expected response of the hydrological cycle to global warming. While some studies find that changes in observations and climate models support the WWDD paradigm, others find that it is more complicated at local scales and over land. This discrepancy is partly explained by differences in model climatologies and by movement of the wet and dry regions. Here we show that by tracking changes in wet and dry regions as they shift over the tropics and vary in models, mean precipitation changes follow the WWDD pattern in observations and models over land and ocean. However, this signal is reduced and disappears in model dry regions, when these factors are not accounted for. Accounting for seasonal and interannual shifts of the regions and climatological differences between models reduces uncertainty in predictions of future precipitation changes and makes these changes detectable earlier.},
author = {Polson, D. and Hegerl, G. C.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071194},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,climate models,precipitation,satellite observations,tropics},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {365--373},
pmid = {335},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Strengthening contrast between precipitation in tropical wet and dry regions}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071194},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Polson2014,
abstract = {The Northern Hemisphere monsoons are an integral component of Earth's hydrological cycle and affect the lives of billions of people. Observed precipitation in the monsoon regions underwent substantial changes during the second half of the 20th century, with drying from the 1950s to mid-1980s and increasing precipitation in recent decades. Modeling studies suggest anthropogenic aerosols has been a key factor driving changes in tropical and monsoon precipitation. Here we apply detection and attribution methods to determine whether observed changes are driven by human influences using fingerprints of individual forcings (i.e. greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol and natural) derived from climate models. The results show that the observed changes can only be explained when including the influence of anthropogenic aerosols, even after accounting for internal climate variability. Anthropogenic aerosol, not greenhouse gas or natural forcing, has been the dominant influence on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation over the second half of the 20th century.},
author = {Polson, D. and Bollasina, M. and Hegerl, G. C. and Wilcox, L. J.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL060811},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6023--6029},
title = {{Decreased monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL060811},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Polyak2004,
abstract = {The Younger Dryas was one of the more dramatic climatic transitions ever recorded. How these types of climatic shifts are expressed in continental interiors is of primary scientific interest and of vital societal concern. Here we present a speleothem-based absolutely dated record (using uranium-series data) of climate change for the southwestern United States from growth chronology of multiple speleothems. The stalagmite growth represents the onset of wetter climate (12,500 yr B.P.) soon after the start of the Younger Dryas; the wetter climate persisted a millennium beyond the termination of the Younger Dryas. This wet cycle is likely related to a more southern positioning of the polar jet stream in response to cooler Northern Hemisphere climate. The end of the wet period coincides with the peak of the Holocene summer insolation maximum ca. 10,500 yr B.P. The Allerod (prior to the Younger Dryas), which corresponds to Clovis occupation in the southwestern United States, was drier in comparison and seems in line with a climatic contribution to megafauna extinction.},
author = {Polyak, Victor J. and Rasmussen, Jessica B.T. and Asmerom, Yemane},
doi = {10.1130/G19957.1},
isbn = {0091-7613},
issn = {0091-7613},
journal = {Geology},
keywords = {Carlsbad caverns,Paleoclimate,Stalagmite,U-series,Younger dryas},
number = {1},
pages = {5},
title = {{Prolonged wet period in the southwestern United States through the Younger Dryas}},
url = {https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/geology/article/32/1/5-8/129210},
volume = {32},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Pomposi2020,
abstract = {Prior research has shown that dry conditions tend to persist in the Sahel when El Ni{\~{n}}o develops. Yet, during the historic 2015 El Ni{\~{n}}o, Sahel summer precipitation was anomalously high, particularly in the second half of the season. This seeming inconsistency motivates a reexamination of the variability of precipitation during recent El Ni{\~{n}}o years. We identify and composite around two different outcomes for Sahel summer season: an anomalously wet season or an anomalously dry season as El Ni{\~{n}}o develops to its peak conditions over the observational record spanning 1950–2015. We find consistently cool temperatures across the global tropics outside the Ni{\~{n}}o-3.4 region when the Sahel is anomalously wet during El Ni{\~{n}}o years and a lack of cooling throughout the tropics when the Sahel is anomalously dry. The striking differences in oceanic surface temperatures between wet years and dry years are consistent with a rearrangement of the entire global circulation in favor of increased rainfall in West Africa despite the presence of El Ni{\~{n}}o.},
author = {Pomposi, Catherine and Kushnir, Yochanan and Giannini, Alessandra and Biasutti, Michela},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0219.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1193--1207},
title = {{Toward Understanding the Occurrence of Both Wet and Dry Sahel Seasons during El Ni{\~{n}}o: The Modulating Role of the Global Ocean}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/4/1193/346340/Toward-Understanding-the-Occurrence-of-Both-Wet},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Popp2017,
abstract = {A major bias in tropical precipitation over the Pacific in climate simulations stems from the models' tendency to produce two strong distinct intertropical convergence zones (ITCZs) too often. Several mechanisms have been proposed that may contribute to the emergence of two ITCZs, but current theories cannot fully explain the bias. This problem is tackled by investigating how the interaction between atmospheric cloud-radiative effects (ACREs) and the large-scale circulation influences the ITCZ position in an atmospheric general circulation model. Simulations are performed in an idealized aquaplanet setup and the longwave and shortwave ACREs are turned off individually or jointly. The low-level moist static energy (MSE) is shown to be a good predictor of the ITCZ position. Therefore, a mechanism is proposed that explains the changes in MSE and thus ITCZ position due to ACREs consistently across simulations. The mechanism implies that the ITCZ moves equatorward if the Hadley circulation strengthens because of the increased upgradient advection of low-level MSE off the equator. The longwave ACRE increases the meridional heating gradient in the tropics and as a response the Hadley circulation strengthens and the ITCZ moves equatorward. The shortwave ACRE has the opposite effect. The total ACRE pulls the ITCZ equatorward. This mechanism is discussed in other frameworks involving convective available potential energy, gross moist stability, and the energy flux equator. It is thus shown that the response of the large-scale circulation to the shortwave and longwave ACREs is a fundamental driver of changes in the ITCZ position.},
author = {Popp, Max and Silvers, Levi G.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0062.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Cloud radiative effects,Hadley circulation,Large-scale motions,Precipitation,Stability,Tropics},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {9147--9166},
title = {{Double and Single ITCZs with and without Clouds}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0062.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Portmann2013,
abstract = {Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to minimize climate change requires very significant societal effort. To motivate this effort, it is important to clarify the benefits of avoided emissions. To this end, we analysed the impact of four emissions scenarios on future renewable groundwater resources, which range from 1600 GtCO2 during the 21st century (RCP2.6) to 7300 GtCO2 (RCP8.5). Climate modelling uncertainty was taken into account by applying the bias-corrected output of a small ensemble of five CMIP5 global climate models (GCM) as provided by the ISI-MIP effort to the global hydrological modelWaterGAP. Despite significant climate model uncertainty, the benefits of avoided emissions with respect to renewable groundwater resources (i.e. groundwater recharge (GWR)) are obvious. The percentage of projected global population (SSP2 population scenario) suffering from a significant decrease of GWR of more than 10{\%} by the 2080s as compared to 1971–2000 decreases from 38{\%} (GCM range 27–50{\%}) for RCP8.5 to 24{\%} (11–39{\%}) for RCP2.6. The population fraction that is spared from any significant GWR change would increase from 29{\%} to 47{\%} if emissions were restricted to RCP2.6. Increases of GWR are more likely to occur in areas with below average population density, while GWR decreases of more than 30{\%} affect especially (semi)arid regions, across all GCMs. Considering change of renewable groundwater resources as a function of mean global temperature (GMT) rise, the land area that is affected by GWR decreases of more than 30{\%} and 70{\%} increases linearly with global warming from 0 to 3 ◦C. For each degree of GMT rise, an additional 4{\%} of the global land area (except Greenland and Antarctica) is affected by a GWR decrease of more than 30{\%}, and an additional 1{\%} is affected by a decrease of more than 70{\%}.},
author = {Portmann, Felix T. and D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and Eisner, Stephanie and Fl{\"{o}}rke, Martina},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024023},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5 climate scenarios,climate change,emissions scenarios,groundwater recharge},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {024023},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: Assessing the benefits of avoided greenhouse gas emissions using selected CMIP5 climate projections}},
volume = {8},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Potter2017GRL,
abstract = {We examine the influence of southern African orography on the Namibian stratocumulus deck, the South Atlantic ocean-to-atmosphere energy transport, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), using an atmosphere-only model and a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. For both models, a control simulation with realistic orography is compared to a simulation where the orography in southern Africa was removed. As in the previous studies, the removal of orography results in thinning of the Namibian stratocumulus deck. In the coupled model, the increased sea surface temperature in the southern Atlantic due to the reduction of low clouds forces the Atlantic ITCZ to shift southward toward the warmer hemisphere. However, changes in the ocean circulation cool the South Atlantic atmosphere, lessening the ITCZ shift and changing the structure of precipitation. These results show the importance of orography on shaping Atlantic rainfall and highlight the role of dynamical ocean processes in atmospheric dynamics.},
annote = {Namibian stratocumulus important in determining ITCZ position in idealised experiment},
author = {Potter, S. F. and Dawson, E. J. and Frierson, D. M.W.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073098},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Intertropical Convergence Zone,energy flux,equatorial Atlantic,interhemispheric energy balance,orography},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3283--3289},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Southern African orography impacts on low clouds and the Atlantic ITCZ in a coupled model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017gl073098},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pound2014,
author = {Pound, M J and Tindall, J and Pickering, S J and Haywood, A M and Dowsett, H J and Salzmann, U},
doi = {10.5194/cp-10-167-2014},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
pages = {167--180},
title = {{Late Pliocene lakes and soils: a global data set for the analysis of climate feedbacks in a warmer world}},
volume = {10},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Poveda2020,
abstract = {Owing to the extraordinary latitudinal extent, a strong orographic variability with very high mountain tops, and the presence of deep valleys and steep slopes, the Andes and the population of the region are highly prone and vulnerable to the impacts of a large suite of extreme weather events. Here we provide a review of the most salient events in terms of losses of human and animal lives, economic and monetary losses in costs and damages, and social disruption, namely: (1) extreme precipitation events and related processes (Mesoscale Convective Systems, lightning), (2) cold spells, frosts, and high winds, (3) the impacts of ENSO on extreme hydro-meteorological events, (4) floods, (5) landslides, mudslides, avalanches, and (6) droughts, heat waves and fires. For our purposes, we focus this review on three distinctive regions along the Andes: Northern tropical (north of 8°S), Southern tropical (8°S-27°S) and Extratropical Andes (south of 27°S). Research gaps are also identified and discussed at the end of this review. It is very likely that climate change will increase the vulnerability of the millions of inhabitants of the Andes, impacting their livelihoods and the sustainable development of the region into the twenty first century amidst urbanization, deforestation, air, soil and water pollution, and land use changes.},
author = {Poveda, Germ{\'{a}}n and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Zuluaga, Manuel D. and Solman, Silvina A. and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} and van Oevelen, Peter J.},
doi = {10.3389/feart.2020.00162},
issn = {22966463},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
keywords = {Andes,ENSO,droughts,extreme weather,fires,floods,landslides,storms},
number = {May},
pages = {1--32},
title = {{High Impact Weather Events in the Andes}},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Poveda2014a,
abstract = {We study the seasonal dynamics of the eastern Pacific (CHOCO) and Caribbean low-level jets (LLJ), and aerial rivers (AR) acting on tropical and subtropical South America. Using the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979-2012), we show that the convergence of both LLJs over the eastern Pacific-western Colombia contributes to the explanation of the region's world-record rainfall. Diverse variables involved in the transport and storage of moisture permit the identification of an AR over northern South America involving a midtropospheric easterly jet that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans across the Andes, with stronger activity in April to August. Other major seasonal AR pathways constitute part of a large gyre originating over the tropical North Atlantic, veering to the southeast over the eastern Andes and reaching regions of northern Argentina and southeastern Brazil. We illustrate the distribution of average seasonal precipitation along the LLJs and AR pathways with data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (1998-2011), combined with considerations of CAPE, topography, and land cover. In addition, the theory of the biotic pump of atmospheric moisture (BiPAM) is tested at seasonal time scales, and found to hold in 8 out of 12 ARs, and 22 out of 32 forest-covered tracks (64{\%} in distance) along the ARs. Deviations from BiPAM's predictions of rainfall distribution are explained by the effects of topography, orography, and land cover types different from forests. Our results lend a strong observational support to the BiPAM theory at seasonal time scales over South American forested flat lands. Key Points Seasonal march of South American low-level jets and aerial rivers Precipitation is fed from oceanic sources and land-atmosphere feedbacks Observational support for the biotic pump of atmospheric moisture concept {\textcopyright}2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Poveda, Germ{\'{a}}n and Jaramillo, Liliana and Vallejo, Luisa F.},
doi = {10.1002/2013WR014087},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {South America,aerial rivers,biotic pump,land-atmosphere feedbacks,low-level jets,precipitation},
number = {3},
pages = {98--118},
title = {{Seasonal precipitation patterns along pathways of South American low-level jets and aerial rivers}},
volume = {50},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Power2018,
abstract = {Increases in greenhouse gas emissions are expected to cause changes both in climatic variability in the Pacific linked to El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and in long-term average climate. While mean state and variability changes have been studied separately, much less is known about their combined impact or relative importance. Additionally, studies of projected changes in ENSO have tended to focus on changes in, or adjacent to, the Pacific. Here we examine projected changes in climatic conditions during El Ni{\~{n}}o years and in ENSO-driven precipitation variability in 36 CMIP5 models. The models are forced according to the RCP8.5 scenario in which there are large, unmitigated increases in greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. We examine changes over much of the globe, including 25 widely spread regions defined in the IPCC special report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). We confirm that precipitation variability associated with ENSO is projected to increase in the tropical Pacific, consistent with earlier research. We also find that the enhanced tropical Pacific variability drives ENSO-related variability increases in 19 SREX regions during DJF and in 18 during JJA. This externally forced increase in ENSO-driven precipitation variability around the world is on the order of 15{\%}–20{\%}. An increase of this size, although substantial, is easily masked at the regional level by internally generated multidecadal variability in individual runs. The projected changes in El Ni{\~{n}}o–driven precipitation variability are typically much smaller than projected changes in both mean state and ENSO neutral conditions in nearly all regions.},
author = {Power, Scott B. and Delage, Fran{\c{c}}ois P. D.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0138.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {6189--6207},
title = {{El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation and Associated Climatic Conditions around the World during the Latter Half of the Twenty-First Century}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0138.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Prado2013a,
abstract = {Abstract. The mid-Holocene (6000 calibrated years before present) is a key period in palaeoclimatology because incoming summer insolation was lower than during the late Holocene in the Southern Hemisphere, whereas the opposite happened in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the effects of the decreased austral summer insolation over South American climate have been poorly discussed by palaeodata syntheses. In addition, only a few of the regional studies have characterised the mid-Holocene climate in South America through a multiproxy approach. Here, we present a multiproxy compilation of mid-Holocene palaeoclimate data for eastern South America. We compiled 120 palaeoclimatological datasets, which were published in 84 different papers. The palaeodata analysed here suggest a water deficit scenario in the majority of eastern South America during the mid-Holocene if compared to the late Holocene, with the exception of northeastern Brazil. Low mid-Holocene austral summer insolation caused a reduced land–sea temperature contrast and hence a weakened South American monsoon system circulation. This scenario is represented by a decrease in precipitation over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone area, saltier conditions along the South American continental margin, and lower lake levels.},
author = {Prado, L. F. and Wainer, I. and Chiessi, C. M. and Ledru, M.-P. and Turcq, B.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-9-2117-2013},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {5},
pages = {2117--2133},
title = {{A mid-Holocene climate reconstruction for eastern South America}},
volume = {9},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Prado2013,
abstract = {The mean precipitation fields for eastern South America from eight mid-Holocene (6 ka) simulations, part of the third phase of Palaeoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), are evaluated. These simulations were compared to a new multiproxy compilation of 120 previously published records of changes in South American paleoclimate. Results show that when compared with modern conditions, mid-Holocene proxy data point to a drier Southern Brazil and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), but a wetter/similar Northeastern Brazil. This suggests a weaker South American Monsoon System during the mid-Holocene when compared with its modern strength. All analyzed model simulations indicate a similar pattern, with a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone during the mid-Holocene, related to a weaker South Atlantic subtropical high, and negative annual precipitation anomalies over the SACZ area. Regional differences between the analyzed models were clearly detected.},
author = {Prado, Luciana F. and Wainer, Ilana and Chiessi, Cristiano M.},
doi = {10.1177/0959683613505336},
isbn = {0959683613505},
issn = {09596836},
journal = {Holocene},
keywords = {CMIP5,PMIP3,South America,mid-Holocene,multiproxy compilation,precipitation},
number = {12},
pages = {1915--1920},
title = {{Mid-Holocene PMIP3/CMIP5 model results: Intercomparison for the South American Monsoon System}},
volume = {23},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Prajeesh2013,
author = {Prajeesh, A G and Ashok, K and Rao, D V Bhaskar},
doi = {10.1038/srep02989},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {2989},
title = {{Falling monsoon depression frequency: A Gray-Sikka conditions perspective}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep02989},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Preethi2017,
abstract = {Recent trends, variations and tele-connections between the two large regional sub-systems over the Asian domain, the South Asian and the East Asian monsoons are explored using data for the 1901–2014 period. Based on trend analysis a dipole-type configuration with north-drought and south-flood over South as well as East Asia is observed. Two regions over South Asia, one exhibiting a significant decreasing trend in summer monsoon rainfall over northeast India and the other significant increasing trend over the northern parts of the west coast of India are identified. Similarly two regions over East Asia, one over South Korea-southern parts of Japan and the other over South China are also identified both indicating a significant increasing trend in the summer monsoon rainfall. These trends are examined post 1970s. Possible factors associated with the recent trends are explored. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure and winds at lower troposphere indicates that the entire monsoon flow system appears to have shifted westwards, with the monsoon trough over South Asia indicating a westward shift by about 2–3° longitudes and the North Pacific Subtropical High over East Asia seems to have shifted by about 5–7° longitudes. These shifts are consistent with the recent rainfall trends. Furthermore, while the West Indian Ocean SSTs appear to be related with the summer monsoon rainfall over northern parts of India and over North China, the West Pacific SSTs appear to be related with the rainfall over southern parts of India and over South Korea- southern Japan sector.},
author = {Preethi, B. and Mujumdar, M. and Kripalani, R. H. and Prabhu, Amita and Krishnan, R.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3218-0},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {East Asia,Monsoon rainfall,South Asia,West Indian Ocean,West Pacific Ocean},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2489--2505},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Recent trends and tele-connections among South and East Asian summer monsoons in a warming environment}},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Prein2017,
abstract = {Extreme precipitation intensities have increased in all regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) and are expected to further increase with warming at scaling rates of about 7{\%} per degree Celsius (ref.), suggesting a significant increase of flash flood hazards due to climate change. However, the scaling rates between extreme precipitation and temperature are strongly dependent on the region, temperature, and moisture availability, which inhibits simple extrapolation of the scaling rate from past climate data into the future. Here we study observed and simulated changes in local precipitation extremes over the CONUS by analysing a very high resolution (4 km horizontal grid spacing) current and high-end climate scenario that realistically simulates hourly precipitation extremes. We show that extreme precipitation is increasing with temperature in moist, energy-limited, environments and decreases abruptly in dry, moisture-limited, environments. This novel framework explains the large variability in the observed and modelled scaling rates and helps with understanding the significant frequency and intensity increases in future hourly extreme precipitation events and their interaction with larger scales.},
author = {Prein, Andreas F. and Rasmussen, Roy M. and Ikeda, Kyoko and Liu, Changhai and Clark, Martyn P. and Holland, Greg J.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3168},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {1},
pages = {48--52},
title = {{The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes}},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Prein2015a,
abstract = {Regional climate modeling using convection-permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing 10 km). CPMs no longer rely on convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified as a major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, CPMs allow for a more accurate representation of surface and orography fields. The drawback of CPMs is the high demand on computational resources. For this reason, first CPM climate simulations only appeared a decade ago. In this study, we aim to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic. The most important components in CPMs such as physical parameterizations and dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview of weaknesses and an outlook on required future developments is provided. Most importantly, this review presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPM climate simulations compared to LSMs. Improvements are evident mostly for climate statistics related to deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. The climate change signals of CPM simulations suggest an increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs.},
author = {Prein, Andreas F. and Langhans, Wolfgang and Fosser, Giorgia and Ferrone, Andrew and Ban, Nikolina and Goergen, Klaus and Keller, Michael and T{\"{o}}lle, Merja and Gutjahr, Oliver and Feser, Frauke and Brisson, Erwan and Kollet, Stefan and Schmidli, Juerg and Lipzig, Nicole P. M. and Leung, Ruby},
doi = {10.1002/2014RG000475},
issn = {8755-1209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {10.1002/2014RG000475 and -permitting mod,added value,climate,cloud resolving,high nonhydrostatic modeling},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {323--361},
pmid = {27478878},
title = {{A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014RG000475},
volume = {53},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Prentice2015,
abstract = {Abstract. Land-surface models (LSMs) are increasingly called upon to represent not only the exchanges of energy, water and momentum across the land–atmosphere interface (their original purpose in climate models), but also how ecosystems and water resources respond to climate, atmospheric environment, land-use and land-use change, and how these responses in turn influence land–atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), trace gases and other species that affect the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere. However, the LSMs embedded in state-of-the-art climate models differ in how they represent fundamental aspects of the hydrological and carbon cycles, resulting in large inter-model differences and sometimes faulty predictions. These "third-generation" LSMs respect the close coupling of the carbon and water cycles through plants, but otherwise tend to be under-constrained, and have not taken full advantage of robust hydrological parameterizations that were independently developed in offline models. Benchmarking, combining multiple sources of atmospheric, biospheric and hydrological data, should be a required component of LSM development, but this field has been relatively poorly supported and intermittently pursued. Moreover, benchmarking alone is not sufficient to ensure that models improve. Increasing complexity may increase realism but decrease reliability and robustness, by increasing the number of poorly known model parameters. In contrast, simplifying the representation of complex processes by stochastic parameterization (the representation of unresolved processes by statistical distributions of values) has been shown to improve model reliability and realism in both atmospheric and land-surface modelling contexts. We provide examples for important processes in hydrology (the generation of runoff and flow routing in heterogeneous catchments) and biology (carbon uptake by species-diverse ecosystems). We propose that the way forward for next-generation complex LSMs will include: (a) representations of biological and hydrological processes based on the implementation of multiple internal constraints; (b) systematic application of benchmarking and data assimilation techniques to optimize parameter values and thereby test the structural adequacy of models; and (c) stochastic parameterization of unresolved variability, applied in both the hydrological and the biological domains.},
author = {Prentice, I. C. and Liang, X. and Medlyn, B. E. and Wang, Y.-P.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-15-5987-2015},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5987--6005},
title = {{Reliable, robust and realistic: the three R's of next-generation land-surface modelling}},
volume = {15},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Prestele2016,
abstract = {Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.},
author = {Prestele, Reinhard and Alexander, Peter and Rounsevell, Mark D. A. and Arneth, Almut and Calvin, Katherine and Doelman, Jonathan and Eitelberg, David A. and Engstr{\"{o}}m, Kerstin and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Humpen{\"{o}}der, Florian and Jain, Atul K. and Krisztin, Tam{\'{a}}s and Kyle, Page and Meiyappan, Prasanth and Popp, Alexander and Sands, Ronald D. and Schaldach, R{\"{u}}diger and Sch{\"{u}}ngel, Jan and Stehfest, Elke and Tabeau, Andrzej and {Van Meijl}, Hans and {Van Vliet}, Jasper and Verburg, Peter H.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13337},
issn = {1354-1013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {land-use allocation,land-use change,land-use model uncertainty,map comparison,model intercomparison,model variation},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {3967--3983},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Hotspots of uncertainty in land‐use and land‐cover change projections: a global‐scale model comparison}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13337},
volume = {22},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Priestley2020,
abstract = {The representation of the winter and summer extratropical storm tracks in both hemispheres is evaluated in detail for the available models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The state of the storm tracks from 1979 to 2014 is compared to that in ERA5 using a Lagrangian objective cyclone tracking algorithm. It is found that the main biases present in the previous generation of models (CMIP5) still persist, albeit to a lesser extent. The equatorward bias around the SH is much reduced and there appears to be some improvement in mean biases with the higher-resolution models, such as the zonal tilt of the North Atlantic storm track. Low-resolution models have a tendency to underestimate the frequency of high-intensity cyclones with all models simulating a peak intensity that is too low for cyclones in the SH. Explosively developing cyclones are underestimated across all ocean basins and in both hemispheres. In particular the models struggle to capture the rapid deepening required for these cyclones. For all measures, the CMIP6 models exhibit an overall improvement compared to the previous generation of CMIP5 models. In the NH most improvements can be attributed to increased horizontal resolution, whereas in the SH the impact of resolution is less apparent and any improvements are likely a result of improved model physics.},
author = {Priestley, Matthew D. K. and Ackerley, Duncan and Catto, Jennifer L. and Hodges, Kevin I. and Mcdonald, Ruth E. and Lee, Robert W.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0928.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {6315--6343},
title = {{An Overview of the Extratropical Storm Tracks in CMIP6 Historical Simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19- https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/15/6315/346907/An-Overview-of-the-Extratropical-Storm-Tracks-in},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/qj.3733,
abstract = {Abstract Secondary cyclones are those that form in association with a pre-existing primary cyclone, typically along a trailing cold front. In previously studied cases they have been shown to cause extreme damage across Europe, particularly when multiple cyclones track over the same location in rapid succession (known as cyclone clustering). To determine the dynamical relationship between primary and secondary cyclones over the North Atlantic, a frontal identification algorithm is partnered with a cyclone identification method to objectively identify secondary cyclones in 35 extended winter periods using reanalysis data. Cyclones are grouped into “cyclone families” consisting of a single primary cyclone and one or more secondary cyclones. This paper aims to quantify the differences between secondary and primary cyclones over the North Atlantic, and how cyclone families contribute to episodes of cyclone clustering across western Europe. Secondary cyclones are shown to occur most frequently in the central and eastern North Atlantic, whereas primary cyclones are commonly found over the western North Atlantic. Cyclone families have their strongest presence over the North Atlantic Ocean and contribute more than 50{\%} of cyclones over the main North Atlantic storm track. A final category, solo cyclones, which are not associated with cyclogenesis on any connected fronts, are most commonly identified over continental regions as well as the Mediterranean Sea. Primary cyclones are associated with the development of an environment that is favourable for secondary cyclone growth. Enhanced Rossby wave breaking following primary cyclone development leads to an increase in the upper-level jet speed and a decrease in low-level stability. Secondary cyclogenesis commonly occurs in this region of anomalously low stability, close to the European continent. During periods of cyclone clustering, secondary cyclones are responsible for approximately 50{\%} of the total number of cyclones. The increase in jet speed and decrease in static stability initiated by the primary cyclones acts to concentrate the genesis region of secondary cyclones and direct the cyclones that form along a similar track. While there is an increase in the secondary cyclogenesis rate near western Europe during periods of European clustering, the basin-wide secondary cyclogenesis rate decreases during these periods. Thus the large-scale environment redistributes secondary cyclones during periods of clustering rather than increasing the total number of secondary cyclones.},
author = {Priestley, Matthew D K and Dacre, Helen F and Shaffrey, Len C and Schemm, Sebastian and Pinto, Joaquim G},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3733},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {clustering,cyclogenesis,cyclone family,secondary cyclone,windstorm},
number = {728},
pages = {1184--1205},
title = {{The role of secondary cyclones and cyclone families for the North Atlantic storm track and clustering over western Europe}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3733},
volume = {146},
year = {2020}
}
@article{plap16,
author = {Prigent, Catherine and Lettenmaier, Dennis P and Aires, Filipe and Papa, Fabrice},
doi = {10.1007/s10712-015-9339-x},
issn = {0169-3298},
journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {339--355},
title = {{Toward a High-Resolution Monitoring of Continental Surface Water Extent and Dynamics, at Global Scale: from GIEMS (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites) to SWOT (Surface Water Ocean Topography)}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10712-015-9339-x},
volume = {37},
year = {2016}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2019JD030711,
abstract = {Abstract A method has been developed to extend the Global Inundation Estimate from Multiple Satellites (GIEMS). The method presented here is based on retrieval principals similar to GIEMS but with an updated estimation of microwave emissivity in order to be less dependent on ancillary data and with some changes to the final surface water estimation to correct a known overestimation over low vegetation areas. The new methodology, GIEMS-2, provides monthly estimates of surface water extent, including open water, wetlands, or rice paddies, and it has been applied to the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder intercalibrated observations to produce a global data record of surface water extent from 1992 to 2015, on an equal area grid of 0.25° × 0.25° at the equator (∼25 km). The time series have been thoroughly evaluated: they are seamless and do not show any obvious artifact related to changes in satellite instrumentation over the ∼25 years. Comparisons with precipitation estimates show good agreement, displaying expected patterns related to surface conditions and precipitation regimes. The temporal variability of basin-averaged estimates has also been compared with altimeter river height, showing a reasonable agreement. Production will be continued up to current time as soon as the observations become available, with efforts to improve the spatial and temporal resolutions of the estimates currently underway.},
author = {Prigent, C and Jimenez, C and Bousquet, P},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD030711},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {remote sensing,surface water,wetlands},
number = {3},
pages = {e2019JD030711},
title = {{Satellite-Derived Global Surface Water Extent and Dynamics Over the Last 25 Years (GIEMS-2)}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD030711},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pritchard2019Nature,
abstract = {About 800 million people depend in part on meltwater from the thousands of glaciers in the high mountains of Asia. Water stress makes this region vulnerable to drought, but glaciers are a uniquely drought-resilient source of water. Here I show that seasonal glacier meltwater is equivalent to the basic needs of 221 ± 59 million people, or most of the annual municipal and industrial needs of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. During drought summers, meltwater dominates water inputs to the upper Indus, Aral and Chu/Issyk-Kul river basins. This reduces the risk of social instability, conflict and sudden migrations triggered by water scarcity, which is already associated with the large, rapidly growing populations and hydro-economies of these basins. Regional meltwater production is, however, unsustainably high—at 1.6 times the balance rate—and is expected to increase in future decades before ultimately declining. These results update and reinforce a previous publication in Nature on this topic, which was retracted after an inadvertent error was discovered.},
author = {Pritchard, Hamish D.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1240-1},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Cryospheric science,Hydrology,Natural hazards},
month = {may},
number = {7758},
pages = {649--654},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media {\{}LLC{\}}},
title = {{Asia's shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1240-1},
volume = {569},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Pritchard2016,
author = {Pritchard, Michael S. and Yang, Da},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0790.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {4995--5008},
title = {{Response of the Superparameterized Madden–Julian Oscillation to Extreme Climate and Basic-State Variation Challenges a Moisture Mode View}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0790.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Prospero2002,
abstract = {We use the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) sensor on the Nimbus 7 satellite to map the global distribution of major atmospheric dust sources with the goal of identifying common environmental characteristics. The largest and most persistent sources are located in the Northern Hemisphere, mainly in a broad “dust belt” that extends from the west coast of North Africa, over the Middle East, Central and South Asia, to China. There is remarkably little large-scale dust activity outside this region. In particular, the Southern Hemisphere is devoid of major dust activity. Dust sources, regardless of size or strength, can usually be associated with topographical lows located in arid re- gions with annual rainfall under 200–250 mm. Although the source regions themselves are arid or hyperarid, the action of water is evident from the presence of ephem- eral streams, rivers, lakes, and playas. Most major sources have been intermittently flooded through the Quaternary as evidenced by deep alluvial deposits. Many sources are associated with areas where human impacts are well documented, e.g., the Caspian and Aral Seas, Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, southwestern North America, and the loess lands in China. Nonetheless, the largest and most active sources are located in truly remote areas where there is little or no human activity. Thus, on a global scale, dust mobilization appears to be dominated by natural sources. Dust activity is extremely sensitive to many environmental parameters. The iden- tification of major sources will enable us to focus on critical regions and to characterize emission rates in response to environmental conditions. With such knowl- edge we will be better able to improve global dust models and to assess the effects of climate change on emissions in the future. It will also facilitate the inter- pretation of the paleoclimate record based on dust con- tained in ocean sediments and ice cores. INDEX},
author = {Prospero, Joseph M. and Ginoux, Paul and Torres, Omar and Nicholson, Sharon E. and Gill, Thomas E.},
doi = {10.1029/2000RG000095},
isbn = {8755-1209},
issn = {87551209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {Aerosols,Mineral dust,Remote sensing,Soils,TOMS},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {2--1--2--31},
title = {{Environmental characterization of global sources of atmospheric soil dust identified with the Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) absorbing aerosol product}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2000RG000095},
volume = {40},
year = {2002}
}
@article{Prudhomme2014,
author = {Prudhomme, Christel and Giuntoli, Ignazio and Robinson, Emma L and Clark, Douglas B and Arnell, Nigel W and Dankers, Rutger and Fekete, Bal{\'{a}}zs M and Franssen, Wietse and Gerten, Dieter and Gosling, Simon N and Hagemann, Stefan and Hannah, David M and Kim, Hyungjun and Masaki, Yoshimitsu and Satoh, Yusuke and Stacke, Tobias and Wada, Yoshihide and Wisser, Dominik},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222473110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {9},
pages = {3262--3267},
title = {{Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222473110},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Pryor2020,
abstract = {Impacts from current and future wind turbine (WT) deployments necessary to achieve 20{\%} electricity from wind are analyzed using high resolution numerical simulations over the eastern USA. Theoretical scenarios for future deployments are based on repowering (i.e. replacing with higher capacity WTs) thus avoiding competition for land. Simulations for the contemporary climate and current WT deployments exhibit good agreement with observed electricity generation efficiency (gross capacity factors (CF) from simulations = 45–48{\%}, while net CF for WT installed in 2016 = 42.5{\%}). Under the scenario of quadrupled installed capacity there is a small decrease in system-wide efficiency as indicated by annual mean CF. This difference is approximately equal to that from the two simulation years and may reflect saturation of the wind resource in some areas. WT modify the local near-surface climate in the grid cells where they are deployed. The simulated impact on near-surface climate properties at both the regional and local scales does not increase with increasing WT installed capacity. Climate impacts from WT are modest compared to regional changes induced by historical changes in land cover and to the global temperature perturbation induced by use of coal to generate an equivalent amount of electricity.},
author = {Pryor, S C and Barthelmie, R J and Shepherd, T J},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-57371-1},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {541},
title = {{20{\%} of US electricity from wind will have limited impacts on system efficiency and regional climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-57371-1},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pulliainen2020,
abstract = {Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover1–3. These changes in snow cover affect Earth's climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere4–6. In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking7–9. Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980–2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 ± 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40° N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433–3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846–3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)—a reduction in uncertainty from 33{\%} to 7.4{\%}. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia; both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth's energy, water and carbon budgets.},
author = {Pulliainen, Jouni and Luojus, Kari and Derksen, Chris and Mudryk, Lawrence and Lemmetyinen, Juha and Salminen, Miia and Ikonen, Jaakko and Takala, Matias and Cohen, Juval and Smolander, Tuomo and Norberg, Johannes},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2258-0},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7808},
pages = {294--298},
title = {{Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2258-0},
volume = {581},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Qasmi2017,
author = {Qasmi, Sa{\"{i}}d and Cassou, Christophe and Bo{\'{e}}, Julien},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074886},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11140--11149},
title = {{Teleconnection Between Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and European Temperature: Diversity and Evaluation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Models}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL074886},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Qasmi2020a,
abstract = {The response of the European climate to the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) remains difficult to isolate in observations because of the presence of strong internal variability and anthropogenically forced signals. Using model sensitivity experiments proposed within the CMIP6/Decadal Climate Prediction Project Component C (DCPP-C) framework, the wintertime AMV-Europe teleconnection is here investigated in large ensembles of pacemaker-type simulations conducted with the CNRM-CM5 global circulation model. To evaluate the sensitivity of the model response to the AMV amplitude, twin experiments with the AMV forcing pattern multiplied by 2 and 3 (2xAMV and 3xAMV, respectively) are performed in complement to the reference ensemble (1xAMV). Based on a flow analog method, we show that the AMV-forced atmospheric circulation tends to cool down the European continent, whereas the residual signal, mostly including thermodynamical processes, contributes to warming. In 1xAMV, both terms cancel each other, explaining the overall weak AMV-forced atmospheric signal. In 2xAMV and 3xAMV, the thermodynamical contribution overcomes the dynamical cooling and is responsible for milder and wetter conditions found at large scale over Europe. The thermodynamical term includes the advection of warmer and more humid oceanic air penetrating inland and the modification of surface radiative fluxes linked to both altered cloudiness and snow-cover reduction acting as a positive feedback with the AMV amplitude. The dynamical anomalous circulation combines 1) a remote response to enhanced diabatic heating acting as a Rossby wave source in the western tropical Atlantic and 2) a local response associated with warmer SST over the subpolar gyre favoring an anomalous high. The extratropical influence is reinforced by polar amplification due to sea ice melting in all the subarctic seas. The weight between the tropical-extratropical processes and associated feedbacks is speculated to partly explain the nonlinear sensibility of the response to the AMV forcing amplitude, challenging thus the use of the so-called pattern-scaling technique to evaluate teleconnectivity and related impacts associated with decadal variability.},
author = {Qasmi, Sa{\"{i}}d and Cassou, Christophe and Bo{\'{e}}, Julien},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0428.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {7},
pages = {2681--2700},
title = {{Teleconnection Processes Linking the Intensity of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to the Climate Impacts over Europe in Boreal Winter}},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Qian2009,
author = {Qian, Yun and Gong, Daoyi and Fan, Jiwen and Leung, L. Ruby and Bennartz, Ralf and Chen, Deliang and Wang, Weiguo},
doi = {10.1029/2008JD011575},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {aug},
number = {D7},
pages = {D00K02},
title = {{Heavy pollution suppresses light rain in China: Observations and modeling}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2008JD011575},
volume = {114},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Qian2014,
author = {Qian, Cheng and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00235.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1210--1222},
title = {{Multidecadal Variability of North China Aridity and Its Relationship to PDO during 1900–2010}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00235.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Qin2018,
abstract = {There is a strong influence on fatigue of preloaded bolted ring flange connections with geometric imperfections, as they are used for tubular steel towers of wind turbines. This can result in fatigue failure of the connections because the bolts could not take the high dynamic loads sufficiently. This paper is dealing with the results of in which the influence on fatigue of variing geometric imperfections at L-flanges was investigated numerically. The results of this thesis paper lead to a gener criteria, which can be very useful in order to rate geometric imperfections, as they appear in production line. It should be used to sensitize manufacturers and quality responsible staff in reason of allowable tolerances in the assembly process of windturbine towers. {\textcopyright} Ernst {\&} Sohn Verlag f{\"{u}}r Architektur und technische Wissenschaften GmbH {\&} Co. KG, Berlin.},
author = {Qin, Yi and Lin, Yanluan},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001343},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
keywords = {cloud scheme,double ITCZ,marine low clouds},
number = {9},
pages = {2318--2332},
title = {{Alleviated Double ITCZ Problem in the NCAR CESM1: A New Cloud Scheme and the Working Mechanisms}},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Qiu2016,
author = {Qiu, Bo and Guo, Weidong and Xue, Yongkang and Dai, Qiudan},
doi = {10.1002/2016JD025328},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {10.1002/2016JD025328 and generalized layered radia,SSiB,land surface parameterization scheme,two-stream radiative transfer method},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {12145--12163},
title = {{Implementation and evaluation of a generalized radiative transfer scheme within canopy in the soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016JD025328},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Rach2017,
abstract = {Abstract. Past climatic change can be reconstructed from sedimentary archives by a number of proxies. However, few methods exist to directly estimate hydrological changes and even fewer result in quantitative data, impeding our understanding of the timing, magnitude and mechanisms of hydrological changes. Here we present a novel approach based on $\delta$2H values of sedimentary lipid biomarkers in combination with plant physiological modeling to extract quantitative information on past changes in relative humidity. Our initial application to an annually laminated lacustrine sediment sequence from western Europe deposited during the Younger Dryas cold period revealed relative humidity changes of up to 15 {\%} over sub-centennial timescales, leading to major ecosystem changes, in agreement with palynological data from the region. We show that by combining organic geochemical methods and mechanistic plant physiological models on well characterized lacustrine archives it is possible to extract quantitative ecohydrological parameters from sedimentary lipid biomarker $\delta$2H data.},
author = {Rach, Oliver and Kahmen, Ansgar and Brauer, Achim and Sachse, Dirk},
doi = {10.5194/cp-13-741-2017},
isbn = {1814-9359},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {741--757},
title = {{A dual-biomarker approach for quantification of changes in relative humidity from sedimentary lipid D/H ratios}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/13/741/2017/},
volume = {13},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Rachmayani2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Using the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) including a dynamic global vegetation model, a set of 13 time slice experiments was carried out to study global climate variability between and within the Quaternary interglacials of Marine Isotope Stages (MISs) 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15. The selection of interglacial time slices was based on different aspects of inter- and intra-interglacial variability and associated astronomical forcing. The different effects of obliquity, precession, and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing on global surface temperature and precipitation fields are illuminated. In most regions seasonal surface temperature anomalies can largely be explained by local insolation anomalies induced by the astronomical forcing. Climate feedbacks, however, may modify the surface temperature response in specific regions, most pronounced in the monsoon domains and the polar oceans. GHG forcing may also play an important role for seasonal temperature anomalies, especially at high latitudes and early Brunhes interglacials (MIS 13 and 15) when GHG concentrations were much lower than during the later interglacials. High- versus low-obliquity climates are generally characterized by strong warming over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and slight cooling in the tropics during boreal summer. During boreal winter, a moderate cooling over large portions of the Northern Hemisphere continents and a strong warming at high southern latitudes is found. Beside the well-known role of precession, a significant role of obliquity in forcing the West African monsoon is identified. Other regional monsoon systems are less sensitive or not sensitive at all to obliquity variations during interglacials. Moreover, based on two specific time slices (394 and 615 ka), it is explicitly shown that the West African and Indian monsoon systems do not always vary in concert, challenging the concept of a global monsoon system on astronomical timescales. High obliquity can also explain relatively warm Northern Hemisphere high-latitude summer temperatures despite maximum precession around 495 ka (MIS 13). It is hypothesized that this obliquity-induced high-latitude warming may have prevented a glacial inception at that time.},
author = {Rachmayani, Rima and Prange, Matthias and Schulz, Michael},
doi = {10.5194/cp-12-677-2016},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {677--695},
title = {{Intra-interglacial climate variability: model simulations of Marine Isotope Stages 1, 5, 11, 13, and 15}},
url = {https://www.clim-past.net/12/677/2016/},
volume = {12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Radic2014,
abstract = {A large component of present-day sea-level rise is due to the melt of glaciers other than the ice sheets. Recent projections of their contribution to global sea-level rise for the twenty-first century range between 70 and 180 mm, but bear significant uncertainty due to poor gla-cier inventory and lack of hypsometric data. Here, we aim to update the projections and improve quantification of their uncertainties by using a recently released global inventory containing outlines of almost every glacier in the world. We model volume change for each glacier in response to transient spatially-differentiated temperature and precipitation projections from 14 global climate models with two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) prepared for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergov-ernmental Panel on Climate Change. The multi-model mean suggests sea-level rise of 155 ± 41 mm (RCP4.5) and 216 ± 44 mm (RCP8.5) over the period 2006–2100, reducing the current global glacier volume by 29 or 41 {\%}. The largest contributors to projected global volume loss are the glaciers in the Canadian and Russian Arctic, Alaska, and glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Although small contributors to global volume loss, glaciers in Central Europe, low-latitude South America, Caucasus, North Asia, and Western Canada and US are projected to lose more than 80 {\%} of their volume by 2100. However, large uncertainties in the projections remain due to the choice of global climate model and emission sce-nario. With a series of sensitivity tests we quantify addi-tional uncertainties due to the calibration of our model with sparsely observed glacier mass changes. This gives an upper bound for the uncertainty range of ±84 mm sea-level rise by 2100 for each projection.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {Radic2013},
author = {Radi{\'{c}}, Valentina and Bliss, Andrew and Beedlow, A. Cody and Hock, Regine and Miles, Evan and Cogley, J. Graham},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7},
eprint = {Radic2013},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Global climate models,Projections of sea level rise,Regional and global glacier mass changes},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {37--58},
title = {{Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Ragettli2016,
abstract = {Mountain ranges are the world's natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.},
author = {Ragettli, Silvan and Immerzeel, Walter W. and Pellicciotti, Francesca},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1606526113},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Climate change,Glaciers,High-altitude water cycle,Hydrological modeling,River flow},
month = {aug},
number = {33},
pages = {9222--9227},
pmid = {27482082},
title = {{Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1606526113},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Raible2018,
abstract = {Extratropical cyclones in winter and their characteristics are investigated in depth for the Atlantic European region, as they are responsible for a significant part of the rainfall and extreme wind and/or precipitation-induced hazards. The analysis is based on a seamless transient simulation with a state-of-the-art fully coupled Earth system model from 850 to 2100 CE. The Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario is used in the 21st century. During the Common Era, cyclone characteristics show pronounced variations on interannual and decadal timescales, but no external forcing imprint is found prior to 1850. Thus, variations of extratropical cyclone characteristics are mainly caused by internal variability of the coupled climate system. When anthropogenic forcing becomes dominant in the 20th century, a decrease of the cyclone occurrences mainly over the Mediterranean and a strong increase of extreme cyclone-related precipitation become detectable. The latter is due to thermodynamics as it follows the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. An important finding, though, is that the relation between temperature and extreme cyclone-related precipitation is not always controlled by the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, which suggests that dynamical processes can play an important role in generating extreme cyclone-related precipitation – for example, in the absence of anomalously warm background conditions. Thus, the importance of dynamical processes, even on decadal timescales, might explain the conundrum that proxy records suggest enhanced occurrence of precipitation extremes during rather cold periods in the past.},
author = {Raible, Christoph C. and Messmer, Martina and Lehner, Flavio and Stocker, Thomas F. and Blender, Richard},
doi = {10.5194/cp-14-1499-2018},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {1499--1514},
title = {{Extratropical cyclone statistics during the last millennium and the 21st century}},
url = {https://www.clim-past.net/14/1499/2018/},
volume = {14},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ralph2016,
abstract = {The variability of precipitation and water supply along the U.S. West Coast creates major challenges to the region's economy and environment, as evidenced by the recent California drought. This variability is strongly influenced by atmospheric rivers (ARs), which deliver much of the precipitation along the U.S. West Coast and can cause flooding, and by aerosols (from local sources and transported from remote continents and oceans) that modulate clouds and precipitation. A better understanding of these processes is needed to reduce uncertainties in weather predictions and climate projections of droughts and floods, both now and under changing climate conditions.},
author = {Ralph, F. Martin and Prather, K. A. and Cayan, D. and Spackman, J. R. and DeMott, P. and Dettinger, M. and Fairall, C. and Leung, R. and Rosenfeld, D. and Rutledge, S. and Waliser, D. and White, A. B. and Cordeira, J. and Martin, A. and Helly, J. and Intrieri, J.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00043.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {1209--1228},
title = {{CalWater Field Studies Designed to Quantify the Roles of Atmospheric Rivers and Aerosols in Modulating U.S. West Coast Precipitation in a Changing Climate}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00043.1},
volume = {97},
year = {2016}
}
@article{ralph2011storms,
author = {Ralph, F M and Dettinger, M D},
doi = {10.1029/2011EO320001},
issn = {0096-3941},
journal = {Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union},
month = {aug},
number = {32},
pages = {265--266},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Storms, floods, and the science of atmospheric rivers}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011EO320001},
volume = {92},
year = {2011}
}
@article{ralph2018defining,
abstract = {since the term "atmospheric river"(AR) first appeared in modern scientific literature in the early1990s, it has generated debate about the meaning of the concept. A common popular definition is something along the lines of a "river in the sky," albeit as a river of water vapor rather than of liquid.This general concept has come into regular use in the western United States and in some other regions affected by ARs, partly due to its use by media, and due to the intuitive nature of the concept. However, over the last 20 years there have been varying per-spectives on the term in the technical community. These perspectives range roughly from considering it duplicative of preexisting concepts, such as the warm conveyor belt(WCB), to arguments that the analogy to terrestrial rivers is inappropriate, to being a primary topic of focused research, applications, and usage by water managers.},
author = {Ralph, F. Martin and Dettinger, Mi Chae L.D. and Cairns, Mary M. and Galarneau, Thomas J. and Eylander, John},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0157.1},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {4},
pages = {837--839},
title = {{Defining “Atmospheric river": How the glossary of meteorology helped resolve a debate}},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ramarao2018,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2018 Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature In this study, a quantitative assessment of observed aridity variations over the semiarid regions of India is performed for the period 1951–2005 using a dimensionless ratio of annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), estimated from five different observed gridded precipitation data sets. The climatological values and changes of this aridity index are found to be sensitive to the choice of the precipitation observations. An assessment of P/PET estimated using the ensemble mean precipitation shows an increase in aridity over several semiarid regions of India, despite the sensitivity of P/PET variations across individual precipitation data sets. Our results indicate that precipitation variations over the semiarid regions of India are outpacing the changes in potential evapotranspiration and, thereby, influencing aridity changes in a significant manner. Our results further reveal a 10{\%} expansion in the area of the semiarid regions during recent decades relative to previous decades, thus highlighting the need for better adaptation strategies and mitigation planning for the semiarid regions in India. The sensitivity of aridity index to multiple PET data sets can be an additional source of uncertainty and will be addressed in a future study.},
author = {Ramarao, M. V. S. and Sanjay, J. and Krishnan, R. and Mujumdar, M. and Bazaz, Amir and Revi, Aromar},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2513-6},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {apr},
number = {1-2},
pages = {693--702},
title = {{On observed aridity changes over the semiarid regions of India in a warming climate}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-018-2513-6},
volume = {136},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ramarao2015,
abstract = {Abstract. Recent studies have drawn attention to a significant weakening trend of the South Asian monsoon circulation and an associated decrease in regional rainfall during the last few decades. While surface temperatures over the region have steadily risen during this period, most of the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) global climate models have difficulties in capturing the observed decrease of monsoon precipitation, thus limiting our understanding of the regional land surface response to monsoonal changes. This problem is investigated by performing two long-term simulation experiments, with and without anthropogenic forcing, using a variable resolution global climate model having high-resolution zooming over the South Asian region. The present results indicate that anthropogenic effects have considerably influenced the recent weakening of the monsoon circulation and decline of precipitation. It is seen that the simulated increase of surface temperature over the Indian region during the post-1950s is accompanied by a significant decrease of monsoon precipitation and soil moisture. Our analysis further reveals that the land surface response to decrease of soil moisture is associated with significant reduction in evapotranspiration over the Indian land region. A future projection, based on the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using the same high-resolution model indicates the possibility for detecting the summer-time soil drying signal over the Indian region during the 21st century in response to climate change. Given that these monsoon hydrological changes have profound socio-economic implications the present findings provide deeper insights and enhance our understanding of the regional land surface response to the changing South Asian monsoon. While this study is based on a single model realization, it is highly desirable to have multiple realizations to establish the robustness of the results.},
author = {Ramarao, M. V. S and Krishnan, R. and Sanjay, J. and Sabin, T. P.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-6-569-2015},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {2},
pages = {569--582},
title = {{Understanding land surface response to changing South Asian monsoon in a warming climate}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/6/569/2015/},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Ramos_2016,
abstract = {Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are elongated bands of high water vapor concentration extending to the midlatitudes, which can be associated with intense precipitation and floods over continental areas. We analyze ARs reaching Europe in simulations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) to quantify possible changes during the current century, with emphasis in five western European prone coastal areas. ARs are represented reasonably well in GCMs for recent climate conditions (1980–2005). Increased vertically integrated horizontal water transport is found for 2074–2099 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) compared to 1980–2005, while the number of ARs is projected to double on average for the same period. These changes are robust between models and are associated with higher air temperatures and thus enhanced atmospheric moisture content, together with higher precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones. This suggests an increased risk of intense precipitation and floods along the Atlantic European Coasts from the Iberian Peninsula to Scandinavia.},
annote = {doubling of strong Atmospheric Rivers reaching Europe from 1980-2005 to 2074-2099 in RCP8.5 due to increased temperature and moisture},
author = {Ramos, Alexandre M. and Tom{\'{e}}, Ricardo and Trigo, Ricardo M. and Liberato, Margarida L.R. and Pinto, Joaquim G.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL070634},
isbn = {0018-9294},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Atmospheric Rivers,CMIP5 Europe,climate extratropical cyclones},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {9315--9323},
pmid = {5775601},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Projected changes in atmospheric rivers affecting Europe in CMIP5 models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2016gl070634},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ramos2019,
abstract = {A Lagrangian analysis is applied to identify the main moisture source areas associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall along the west coast of South Africa during the extended austral winter months from 1980 to 2014. The results show that areas that provide the anomalous uptake of moisture can be categorized into four regions: (1) the South Atlantic Ocean between 10°S and 30°S, (2) a clear local maximum in the eastern South Atlantic, (3) a continental source of anomalous uptake to the north of the Western Cape, and (4) over South America at a distance of more than 7000 km from the target region. It emerges that the South American moisture source can be linked to a particular phase of the South American low-level jet, known as a no Chaco jet event (NCJE), which transports moisture to the western and central South Atlantic basin. Concisely, we provide strong evidence that the two margins of the South Atlantic Ocean appear connected by two meteorological structures, with the NCJE playing a key role of transporting moisture from South America to the western and central South Atlantic basin, feeding the AR that transports some of the moisture to the west coast of South Africa.},
author = {Ramos, Alexandre M. and Blamey, Ross C. and Algarra, Iago and Nieto, Raquel and Gimeno, Luis and Tom{\'{e}}, Ricardo and Reason, Chris J.C. and Trigo, Ricardo M.},
doi = {10.1111/nyas.13960},
issn = {17496632},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {South Africa,South American low-level jet,South Atlantic Ocean,atmospheric rivers,moisture sources},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {217--230},
pmid = {30295926},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Inc.},
title = {{From Amazonia to southern Africa: atmospheric moisture transport through low-level jets and atmospheric rivers}},
volume = {1436},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{Convention2018,
address = {Gland, Switzerland},
author = {{Ramsar Convention on Wetlands}},
pages = {84},
publisher = {Ramsar Convention Secretariat},
title = {{Global Wetland Outlook: State of the World's Wetlands and their Services to People}},
url = {https://medwet.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/ramsar{\_}gwo{\_}english{\_}web.pdf},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rasmussen2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2017 The Author(s) Novel high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the US employing the pseudo-global warming approach are used to investigate changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in a future climate. Two continuous 13-year simulations were conducted using (1) ERA-Interim reanalysis and (2) ERA-Interim reanalysis plus a climate perturbation for the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulations adequately reproduce the observed precipitation diurnal cycle, indicating that they capture organized and propagating convection that most climate models cannot adequately represent. This study shows that weak to moderate convection will decrease and strong convection will increase in frequency in a future climate. Analysis of the thermodynamic environments supporting convection shows that both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increase downstream of the Rockies in a future climate. Previous studies suggest that CAPE will increase in a warming climate, however a corresponding increase in CIN acts as a balancing force to shift the convective population by suppressing weak to moderate convection and provides an environment where CAPE can build to extreme levels that may result in more frequent severe convection. An idealized investigation of fundamental changes in the thermodynamic environment was conducted by shifting a standard atmospheric profile by ± 5 °C. When temperature is increased, both CAPE and CIN increase in magnitude, while the opposite is true for decreased temperatures. Thus, even in the absence of synoptic and mesoscale variations, a warmer climate will provide more CAPE and CIN that will shift the convective population, likely impacting water and energy budgets on Earth.},
author = {Rasmussen, K. L. and Prein, A. F. and Rasmussen, R. M. and Ikeda, K. and Liu, C.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-4000-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {383--408},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4000-7 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-4000-7},
volume = {55},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Rathore2020a,
abstract = {The long-term trend of sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals an intensification of the global hydrological cycle due to human-induced climate change. This study demonstrates that SSS variability can also be used as a measure of terrestrial precipitation on interseasonal to interannual time scales, and to locate the source of moisture. Seasonal composites during El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation/Indian Ocean dipole (ENSO/IOD) events are used to understand the variations of moisture transport and precipitation over Australia, and their association with SSS variability. As ENSO/IOD events evolve, patterns of positive or negative SSS anomaly emerge in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and are accompanied by atmospheric moisture transport anomalies toward Australia. During co-occurring La Ni{\~{n}}a and negative IOD events, salty anomalies around the Maritime Continent (north of Australia) indicate freshwater export and are associated with a significant moisture transport that converges over Australia to create anomalous wet conditions. In contrast, during co-occurring El Ni{\~{n}}o and positive IOD events, a moisture transport divergence anomaly over Australia results in anomalous dry conditions. The relationship between SSS and atmospheric moisture transport also holds for pure ENSO/IOD events but varies in magnitude and spatial pattern. The significant pattern correlation between the moisture flux divergence and SSS anomaly during the ENSO/IOD events highlights the associated ocean–atmosphere coupling. A case study of the extreme hydroclimatic events of Australia (e.g., the 2010/11 Brisbane flood) demonstrates that the changes in SSS occur before the peak of ENSO/IOD events. This raises the prospect that tracking of SSS variability could aid the prediction of Australian rainfall.},
author = {Rathore, Saurabh and Bindoff, Nathaniel L and Ummenhofer, Caroline C and Phillips, Helen E and Feng, Ming},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0579.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {15},
pages = {6707--6730},
title = {{Near-Surface Salinity Reveals the Oceanic Sources of Moisture for Australian Precipitation through Atmospheric Moisture Transport}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0579.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ratna2021,
abstract = {The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in 2019 was among the strongest on record, while the Indian Summer monsoon (ISM) was anomalously dry in June then very wet by September. We investigated the relationships between the IOD, Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and ISM rainfall during 2019 with an atmospheric general circulation model forced by observed SST anomalies. The results show that the extremely positive IOD was conducive to a wetter‐than‐normal ISM, especially late in the season when the IOD strengthened and was associated with anomalous low‐level divergence over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and convergence over India. However, a warm SST anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific contributed to low‐level divergence and decreased rainfall over India in June. These results help to better understand the influence of the tropical SST anomalies on the seasonal evolution of ISM rainfall during extreme IOD events.},
author = {Ratna, Satyaban B. and Cherchi, Annalisa and Osborn, Timothy J. and Joshi, Manoj and Uppara, Umakanth},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL091497},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {e2020GL091497},
title = {{The Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole of 2019 and Associated Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Response}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL091497},
volume = {48},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Rauber2019,
abstract = {This paper reviews research conducted over the last six decades to understand and quantify the efficacy of wintertime orographic cloud seeding to increase winter snowpack and water supplies...},
author = {Rauber, Robert M. and Geerts, Bart and Xue, Lulin and French, Jeffrey and Friedrich, Katja and Rasmussen, Roy M. and Tessendorf, Sarah A. and Blestrud, Derek R. and Kunkel, Melvin L. and Parkinson, Shaun and Rauber, Robert M. and Geerts, Bart and Xue, Lulin and French, Jeffrey and Friedrich, Katja and Rasmussen, Roy M. and Tessendorf, Sarah A. and Blestrud, Derek R. and Kunkel, Melvin L. and Parkinson, Shaun},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0341.1},
issn = {1558-8424},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {2117--2140},
title = {{Wintertime Orographic Cloud Seeding – A Review}},
volume = {58},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rauniyar,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Rauniyar, Surendra P and Power, Scott B},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0759.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {18},
pages = {8087--8106},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The Impact of Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Processes on Past, Present, and Future Rainfall over Victoria, Australia}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/18/jcliD190759.xml},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Reboita2014a,
abstract = {This study shows climate projections of air temperature and precipitation over South America (SA) from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) nested in ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global models. The projections consider the A1B scenario from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and three time-slices: present (1960–1990), near- (2010–2040), and far-future (2070–2100) climates. In the future, RegCM3 projections indicate general warming throughout all SA and seasons, which is more pronounced in the far-future period. In this late period the RegCM3 projections indicate that the negative trend of precipitation over northern SA is also higher. In addition, a precipitation increase over southeastern SA is projected, mainly during summer and spring. The lifecycle of the South American monsoon (SAM) was also investigated in the present and future climates. In the near-future, the projections show a slight delay (one pentad) of the beginning of the rainy season, resulting in a small reduction of the SAM length. In the far-future, there is no agreement between projections related to the SAM features.},
author = {Reboita, Michelle Sim{\~{o}}es and da Rocha, Rosmeri Porf{\'{i}}rio and Dias, C{\'{a}}ssia Gabriele and Ynoue, Rita Yuri},
doi = {10.1155/2014/376738},
issn = {1687-9309},
journal = {Advances in Meteorology},
pages = {376738},
title = {{Climate Projections for South America: RegCM3 Driven by HadCM3 and ECHAM5}},
url = {http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/376738/},
volume = {2014},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Reboita2015,
abstract = {This study investigated the annual and seasonal trend of the extratropical cyclones occurrence, from 1980 to 2012, considering the whole Southern Hemisphere (SH). The influence of El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the cyclones track density during the austral spring was also evaluated. Mean sea level pressure from National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis was used in an automatic scheme for cyclones tracking. The influence of the teleconnection patterns in the cyclones location is assessed through two methodologies: composite analysis and partial correlation technique. For whole SH and considering the total of cyclones and the stronger ones (with central pressure lower than 980 hPa in some period of their lifecycle) there is a statistically significant positive trend, while for weak cyclones the negative trend is not statistically significant. These patterns of trend occur along the year except in the spring. Regionally, the trend signal (positive or negative) of the cyclones occurrence varies spatially in each austral ocean. We suggested that the positive trend of the cyclones in high latitudes of the South Atlantic and South Pacific Oceans would be associated with the last decades global warming. The number of cyclones in the different phases of the ENSO, SAM and IOD is similar to that of neutral periods. However, these teleconnection patterns are important to modify the preferential regions of cyclones occurrence. The composite analysis of the cyclones track density during ENSO and SAM events is similar to that obtained in the partial correlation; but it is not true for IOD. Isolating ENSO and SAM effects in the cyclones track density, it is observed that the IOD positive phase contributes to the decrease in the cyclones density in large part of SH, particularly over the Indian and western South Pacific Oceans.},
author = {Reboita, Michelle Sim{\~{o}}es and da Rocha, Rosmeri Porf{\'{i}}rio and Ambrizzi, T{\'{e}}rcio and Gouveia, Carolina Daniel},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2447-3},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {ENSO,Extratropical cyclones,IOD,SAM,Southern Hemisphere,Teleconnection patterns,Trend},
month = {oct},
number = {7-8},
pages = {1929--1944},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{Trend and teleconnection patterns in the climatology of extratropical cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere}},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Rehfeld2020,
abstract = {Abstract. It is virtually certain that the mean surface temperature of the Earth will continue to increase under realistic emission scenarios, yet comparatively little is known about future changes in climate variability. This study explores changes in climate variability over the large range of climates simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3), including time slices of the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, and idealized experiments (1 {\%} CO2 and abrupt4×CO2). These states encompass climates within a range of 12 ∘C in global mean temperature change. We examine climate variability from the perspectives of local interannual change, coherent climate modes, and through compositing extremes. The change in the interannual variability of precipitation is strongly dependent upon the local change in the total amount of precipitation. At the global scale, temperature variability is inversely related to mean temperature change on intra-seasonal to multidecadal timescales. This decrease is stronger over the oceans, while there is increased temperature variability over subtropical land areas (40∘ S–40∘ N) in warmer simulations. We systematically investigate changes in the standard deviation of modes of climate variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode, with global mean temperature change. While several climate modes do show consistent relationships (most notably the Atlantic Zonal Mode), no generalizable pattern emerges. By compositing extreme precipitation years across the ensemble, we demonstrate that the same large-scale modes influencing rainfall variability in Mediterranean climates persist throughout paleoclimate and future simulations. The robust nature of the response of climate variability, between cold and warm climates as well as across multiple timescales, suggests that observations and proxy reconstructions could provide a meaningful constraint on climate variability in future projections.},
author = {Rehfeld, Kira and H{\'{e}}bert, Rapha{\"{e}}l and Lora, Juan M. and Lofverstrom, Marcus and Brierley, Chris M.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-11-447-2020},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {447--468},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/447/2020/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Reimi2016,
abstract = {Accurate paleo-latitudinal reconstructions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are necessary for understanding tropical hydroclimate and atmospheric circulation. Paleoclimate models and records suggest that as global temperatures increase, the ITCZ should migrate towards the warmer hemisphere. Many uncertainties remain regarding the magnitude of this migration, and few studies have focused on the Central Equatorial Pacific (CEP). Here, we use eolian dust records recovered from three locations in the CEP to address changes in dust provenance across the paleo ITCZ since the last glacial maximum (LGM). Radiogenic isotope compositions of Nd and Pb show that dust delivered to the CEP was sourced mainly from two regions: East Asia and South America. From these data we deduced that since Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 2 (MIS2) the ITCZ has migrated north to its modern position, being displaced by as much as 7°, to as little as 2.5°. We find that the ITCZ migrated further north during the early Holocene (∼9 kyr), reaching its position furthest north during the mid-Holocene warm interval (∼7 kyr), based on an increase in South American dust at the northernmost sites.},
author = {Reimi, Maria A. and Marcantonio, Franco},
doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2016.07.058},
issn = {0012821X},
journal = {Earth and Planetary Science Letters},
keywords = {Central Equatorial Pacific,ITCZ,Nd,Pb isotopes,dust provenance,last deglaciation},
month = {nov},
pages = {1--8},
title = {{Constraints on the magnitude of the deglacial migration of the ITCZ in the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012821X16304149},
volume = {453},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Reintges2017c,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin HeidelbergUncertainty in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is analyzed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections for the twenty-first century; and the different sources of uncertainty (scenario, internal and model) are quantified. Although the uncertainty in future projections of the AMOC index at 30°N is larger in CMIP5 than in CMIP3, the signal-to-noise ratio is comparable during the second half of the century and even larger in CMIP5 during the first half. This is due to a stronger AMOC reduction in CMIP5. At lead times longer than a few decades, model uncertainty dominates uncertainty in future projections of AMOC strength in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model ensembles. Internal variability significantly contributes only during the first few decades, while scenario uncertainty is relatively small at all lead times. Model uncertainty in future changes in AMOC strength arises mostly from uncertainty in density, as uncertainty arising from wind stress (Ekman transport) is negligible. Finally, the uncertainty in changes in the density originates mostly from the simulation of salinity, rather than temperature. High-latitude freshwater flux and the subpolar gyre projections were also analyzed, because these quantities are thought to play an important role for the future AMOC changes. The freshwater input in high latitudes is projected to increase and the subpolar gyre is projected to weaken. Both the freshening and the gyre weakening likely influence the AMOC by causing anomalous salinity advection into the regions of deep water formation. While the high model uncertainty in both parameters may explain the uncertainty in the AMOC projection, deeper insight into the mechanisms for AMOC is required to reach a more quantitative conclusion.},
author = {Reintges, Annika and Martin, Thomas and Latif, Mojib and Keenlyside, Noel S.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3180-x},
isbn = {0038201631},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC),Climate change uncertainty,Climate projections,North Atlantic Ocean},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1495--1511},
title = {{Uncertainty in twenty-first century projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3180-x},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Renssen2018,
abstract = {To analyze the global hydroclimate response during the Younger Dryas cold event, we evaluate climate model results that have been constrained with proxy-based temperatures from the North Atlantic region. We find that both the temperature and the hydroclimate response have a clear global signature. A marked cooling is simulated over the North Atlantic Ocean (more than 5 °C) and the downwind continents (2–4 °C). This response is related to the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under influence of meltwater discharges. The hydroclimate response is most expressed over Eurasia in a belt between 40 and 60°N, and over Northern Africa in the Sahel region. In both areas, a strong decrease in soil moisture is simulated (up to 20{\%} reduction). In contrast, a striking increase in moisture is found over southeastern North America (15{\%} increase), where southerly atmospheric flow brings moist air to the continent. Outside these areas that are clearly affected by the cold North Atlantic Ocean, the responses of temperature and moisture are decoupled, with different causes for these temperature and hydroclimate responses. In the tropics, the hydroclimate response is governed by the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) due to the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. This causes drier conditions north of the equator and wetter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics. The associated changes in soil moisture are relatively gradual here, taking up to two centuries to complete, suggesting that the impact of the ITCZ shift on the tropical hydroclimate is building up. Our experiment indicates that Southern Hemisphere continents experienced a small cooling (less than 0.5 °C) during the Younger Dryas, caused by the negative radiative forcing associated with reduced atmospheric methane concentrations and enhanced dust levels. In our simulation, the bi-polar seesaw mechanism is relatively weak, so that the associated warming of the South Atlantic Ocean is not overwhelming the reduction in radiative forcing. Our results thus indicate that in the tropics and/or Southern Hemisphere, the cooling is a response to the negative radiative forcing, while the hydroclimatic changes are predominantly resulting from ITCZ variations. Consequently, when interpreting hydroclimatic proxy records from these regions, data should not be compared directly to key records from high latitudes, such as Greenland ice core stable isotope records.},
author = {Renssen, Hans and Goosse, Hugues and Roche, Didier M. and Sepp{\"{a}}, Heikki},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.05.033},
isbn = {02773791},
issn = {02773791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
keywords = {Global,Paleoclimate modelling,Younger Dryas},
pages = {84--97},
title = {{The global hydroclimate response during the Younger Dryas event}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379118300623},
volume = {193},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rhoades2018GRL,
abstract = {The mountains of the Western United States provide a vital natural service through the storage and release of mountain snowpack, lessening impacts of seasonal aridity and satiating summer water demand. However, climate change continues to undermine these important processes. To understand how snowpack may change in the headwaters of California's major reservoirs, the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment is analyzed to assess peak water volume, peak timing, accumulation rate, melt rate, and snow season length across both latitudinal and elevational gradients. Under a high‐emissions scenario, end‐of‐century peak snowpack timing occurs 4 weeks earlier and peak water volume is 79.3{\%} lower. The largest reductions are above Shasta, Oroville, and Folsom and between 0‐ and 2,000‐m elevations. Regional climate model and global forcing data set choice is important in determining historical snowpack character, yet by end century all models show a significant and similar decline in mountain snowpack.},
annote = {Under a high‐emissions scenario, a 79{\%} decline in peak snow upstream of 40{\%} of California's reservoir storage is shown by 2100.},
author = {Rhoades, Alan M. and Jones, Andrew D. and Ullrich, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL080308},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,hydroclimate,mountain regional climate modeling,water resources},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {13008--13019},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The Changing Character of the California Sierra Nevada as a Natural Reservoir}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL080308 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL080308},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Richardson2016,
abstract = {? 2016 American Meteorological Society.Precipitation exhibits a significant rapid adjustment in response to forcing, which is important for understanding long-termclimate change. In this study, fixed sea surface temperature (SST) simulations are used to analyze the spatial pattern of the rapid precipitation response. Three different forcing scenarios are investigated using data obtained from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5): An abrupt quadrupling of CO2, an abrupt increase in sulfate, and an abrupt increase in all anthropogenic aerosol levels from preindustrial to present day. Analysis of the local energy budget is used to understand the mechanisms that drive the observed changes. It is found that the spatial pattern of the rapid precipitation response to forcing is primarily driven by rapid land surface temperature change, rather than the change in tropospheric diabatic cooling. As a result, the pattern of response due to increased CO2 opposes that due to sulfate and all anthropogenic aerosols, because of the opposing surface forcing.The rapid regional precipitation response to increased CO2 is robust among models, implying that the uncertainty in long-term changes is mainly associated with the response to SST-mediated feedbacks. Increased CO2 causes rapidwarming of the land surface,which destabilizes the troposphere, enhancing convection and precipitation over land in the tropics. Precipitation is reduced over most tropical oceans because of a weakening of overturning circulation and a general shift of convection to over land. Over most land regions in the midlatitudes, circulation changes are small. Reduced tropospheric cooling therefore leads to drying over many midlatitude land regions.},
author = {Richardson, Thomas B. and Forster, Piers M. and Andrews, Timothy and Parker, Doug J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0174.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Circulation/Dynamics,Climate change,Energy budget/balance,Hydrologic cycle,Physical meteorology and climatology,Radiative forcing},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {583--594},
title = {{Understanding the rapid precipitation response to CO2 and aerosol forcing on a regional scale}},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Richardson2018,
abstract = {Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO 2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO 2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO 2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.},
author = {Richardson, T. B. and Forster, P. M. and Andrews, T. and Boucher, O. and Faluvegi, G. and Fl{\"{a}}schner, D. and Kasoar, M. and Kirkev{\aa}g, A. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Myhre, G. and Olivi{\'{e}}, D. and Samset, B. H. and Shawki, D. and Shindell, D. and Takemura, T. and Voulgarakis, A.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076520},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2815--2825},
title = {{Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL076520},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Richardson2018b,
abstract = {Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. A new precipitation and meteorological drought climatology for the UK is presented here based on an objectively defined weather-pattern classification recently developed by the Met Office. Six weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several others linked to regional drought. This data set offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.},
author = {Richardson, Douglas and Fowler, Hayley J and Kilsby, Christopher G and Neal, Robert},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5199},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Lamb weather types,UK,climatology,drought severity index,meteorological drought,precipitation,standardized precipitation index,weather patterns},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {630--648},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5199},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Richardson2018JClim,
abstract = {The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO 2 , black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO 2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century.},
author = {Richardson, T. B. and Forster, P. M. and Andrews, T. and Boucher, O. and Faluvegi, G. and Fl{\"{a}}schner, D. and Hodnebrog, {\O} and Kasoar, M. and Kirkev{\aa}g, A. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Myhre, G. and Olivi{\'{e}}, D. and Samset, BH H. and Shawki, D. and Shindell, D. and Takemura, T. and Voulgarakis, A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0240.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Aerosols,Atmosphere,Greenhouse gases,Hydrologic cycle,Precipitation,Radiative },
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {9641--9657},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2Fjcli-d-17-0240.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0240.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ridley2015,
abstract = {The position of the intertropical convergence zone is an important control on the distribution of low-latitude precipitation. Its position is largely controlled by hemisphere temperature contrasts1, 2. The release of aerosols by human activities may have resulted in a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone since the early 1900s (refs 1, 3, 4, 5, 6) by muting the warming of the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere over this interval1, 7, 8, but this proposed shift remains equivocal. Here we reconstruct monthly rainfall over Belize for the past 456 years from variations in the carbon isotope composition of a well-dated, monthly resolved speleothem. We identify an unprecedented drying trend since AD 1850 that indicates a southward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone. This drying coincides with increasing aerosol emissions in the Northern Hemisphere and also marks a breakdown in the relationship between Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the position of the intertropical convergence zone observed earlier in the record. We also identify nine short-lived drying events since AD 1550 each following a large volcanic eruption in the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that anthropogenic aerosol emissions have led to a reduction of rainfall in the northern tropics during the twentieth century, and suggest that geographic changes in aerosol emissions should be considered when assessing potential future rainfall shifts in the tropics.},
author = {Ridley, Harriet E. and Asmerom, Yemane and Baldini, James U.L. L. and Breitenbach, Sebastian F.M. M. and Aquino, Valorie V. and Prufer, Keith M. and Culleton, Brendan J. and Polyak, Victor and Lechleitner, Franziska A. and Kennett, Douglas J. and Zhang, Minghua and Marwan, Norbert and Macpherson, Colin G. and Baldini, Lisa M. and Xiao, Tingyin and Peterkin, Joanne L. and Awe, Jaime and Haug, Gerald H.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2353},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {Hydrology,Palaeoclimate},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {195--200},
pmid = {23347591},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Aerosol forcing of the position of the intertropical convergence zone since AD 1550}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2353},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Rifai2019,
abstract = {The El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of seasonal and interannual climatic variability across the tropics. The 2015/16 El Ni{\~{n}}o event was one of the strongest El Ni{\~{n}}o events of the past century. Here we characterize the meteorological impacts of the 2015/16 El Ni{\~{n}}o event upon the terrestrial tropics, and place the severity of this event into context of previous strong events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Strong drought-inducing meteorological anomalies (≥2 s.d.) occurred across vast regions (20{\%}) of the terrestrial tropics, where the wet tropics (≥1200 mm yr−1) were more severely affected (33{\%}) than the drier tropics (6{\%}). Central and eastern Amazonia experienced the most sustained and spatially extensive drought inducing anomalies, while parts of the Congo basin and Insular Southeast Asia also experienced severe drought. Surprisingly, some regions of the tropics (e.g. the Guiana Shield) with well known ENSO teleconnections were only briefly affected by the 2015/16 El Ni{\~{n}}o event. 2015/16 El Ni{\~{n}}o soil water drought impacts affected 29{\%} of the terrestrial tropics, compared to 16{\%} and 18{\%} in 1982/83 and 1997/98, respectively. Maximum temperatures were particularly exacerbated compared to previous strong El Ni{\~{n}}os because they were amplified by the warming trend due to anthropogenic climate change. This also intensified positive anomalies of atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (the atmospheric demand for moisture), which had strongly negative consequences for vegetation productivity in the tropics. Even if El Ni{\~{n}}o events do not increase in intensity over coming decades, the pervasive long-term warming trend means that the atmospheric drought impact of each strong El Ni{\~{n}}o is becoming more severe, and many parts of the tropics will experience novel climate (temperature and VPD) conditions with each new strong El Ni{\~{n}}o event.},
author = {Rifai, Sami W and Li, Sihan and Malhi, Yadvinder},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab402f},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {105002},
title = {{Coupling of El Ni{\~{n}}o events and long-term warming leads to pervasive climate extremes in the terrestrial tropics}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab402f},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rinke2019,
abstract = {Arctic trends of integrated water vapor were analyzed based on four reanalyses and radiosonde data over 1979–2016. Averaged over the region north of 70°N, the Arctic experiences a robust moistening trend that is smallest in March (0.07 ± 0.06 mm decade−1) and largest in August (0.33 ± 0.18 mm decade−1), according to the reanalyses' median and over the 38 years. While the absolute trends are largest in summer, the relative ones are largest in winter. Superimposed on the trend is a pronounced interannual variability. Analyzing overlapping 30-yr subsets of the entire period, the maximum trend has shifted toward autumn (September–October), which is related to an accelerated trend over the Barents and Kara Seas. The spatial trend patterns suggest that the Arctic has become wetter overall, but the trends and their statistical significance vary depending on the region and season, and drying even occurs over a few regions. Although the reanalyses are consistent in their spatiotemporal trend patterns, they substantially disagree on the trend magnitudes. The summer and the Nordic and Barents Seas, the central Arctic Ocean, and north-central Siberia are the season and regions of greatest differences among the reanalyses. We discussed various factors that contribute to the differences, in particular, varying sea level pressure trends, which lead to regional differences in moisture transport, evaporation trends, and differences in data assimilation. The trends from the reanalyses show a close agreement with the radiosonde data in terms of spatiotemporal patterns. However, the scarce and nonuniform distribution of the stations hampers the assessment of central Arctic trends.},
author = {Rinke, A. and Segger, B. and Crewell, S. and Maturilli, M. and Naakka, T. and Nyg{\aa}rd, T. and Vihma, T. and Alshawaf, F. and Dick, G. and Wickert, J. and Keller, J.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-19-0092.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Reanalysis data,Trends,Water vapor},
month = {jul},
number = {18},
pages = {6097--6116},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Trends of vertically integrated water vapor over the Arctic during 1979–2016: Consistent moistening all over?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0092.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{rw17,
abstract = {Abstract Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Ni{\~{n}}o?Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8{\%} (best estimate of 37.7{\%}), which is larger than the 6?7{\%} associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. In a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.},
author = {Risser, Mark D. and Wehner, Michael F.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075888},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {412--457},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075888},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Rivera2018,
author = {Rivera, Juan Antonio and Araneo, Diego C. and Penalba, Olga C. and Villalba, Ricardo},
doi = {10.2166/nh.2017.207},
issn = {0029-1277},
journal = {Hydrology Research},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {134--149},
title = {{Regional aspects of streamflow droughts in the Andean rivers of Patagonia, Argentina. Links with large-scale climatic oscillations}},
url = {https://iwaponline.com/hr/article/49/1/134-149/37849},
volume = {49},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Roberts2020,
abstract = {Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.},
author = {Roberts, Malcolm John and Camp, Joanne and Seddon, Jon and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Hodges, Kevin and Vanni{\`{e}}re, Beno{\^{i}}t and Mecking, Jenny and Haarsma, Rein and Bellucci, Alessio and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Caron, Louis Philippe and Chauvin, Fabrice and Terray, Laurent and Valcke, Sophie and Moine, Marie Pierre and Putrasahan, Dian and Roberts, Christopher D. and Senan, Retish and Zarzycki, Colin and Ullrich, Paul and Yamada, Yohei and Mizuta, Ryo and Kodama, Chihiro and Fu, Dan and Zhang, Qiuying and Danabasoglu, Gokhan and Rosenbloom, Nan and Wang, Hong and Wu, Lixin},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL088662},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP6,future change,high model bias,tracking algorithms},
number = {14},
pages = {1--12},
title = {{Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble}},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Roberts2015b,
abstract = {The U.K. on Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe (PRACE) Weather-Resolving Simulations of Climate for Global Environmental Risk (UPSCALE) project, using PRACE resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3 (GA3) configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km), and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high-impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and northwestern Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African easterly waves and the African easterly jet. However, the intensity of the modeled tropical cyclones as measured by 10-m wind speed remains weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50{\%} in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, whereas in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more strong storms.},
author = {Roberts, Malcolm J. and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Mizielinski, Matthew S. and Demory, Marie Estelle and Schiemann, Reinhard and Strachan, Jane and Hodges, Kevin and Bell, Ray and Camp, Joanne},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00131.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {2},
pages = {574--596},
title = {{Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high-resolution global climate models}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Roberts2018a,
abstract = {The time scales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short time scales the combined effect of climate variability and change are both key drivers of extreme events, with decadal time scales also important for infrastructure planning. Hence, in order to assess climate risk on such time scales, we require climate models to be able to represent key aspects of both internally driven climate variability and the response to changing forcings. In this paper we argue that we now have the modeling capability to address these requirements—specifically with global models having horizontal resolutions considerably enhanced from those typically used in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises. The improved representation of weather and climate processes in such models underpins our enhanced confidence in predictions and projections, as well as providing improved forcing to regional models, which are better able to represent local-scale extremes (such as convective precipitation). We choose the global water cycle as an illustrative example because it is governed by a chain of processes for which there is growing evidence of the benefits of higher resolution. At the same time it comprises key processes involved in many of the expected future climate extremes (e.g., flooding, drought, tropical and midlatitude storms).},
author = {Roberts, M. J. and Vidale, P. L. and Senior, C. and Hewitt, H. T. and Bates, C. and Berthou, S. and Chang, P. and Christensen, H. M. and Danilov, S. and Demory, M.-E. and Griffies, S. M. and Haarsma, R. and Jung, T. and Martin, G. and Minobe, S. and Ringler, T. and Satoh, M. and Schiemann, R. and Scoccimarro, E. and Stephens, G. and Wehner, M. F.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00320.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {2341--2359},
title = {{The Benefits of Global High Resolution for Climate Simulation: Process Understanding and the Enabling of Stakeholder Decisions at the Regional Scale}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00320.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/11/bams-d-15-00320.1.xml},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Robertson2011,
address = {Singapore},
author = {Robertson, Andrew W. and Moron, Vincent and Qian, Jian-Hua and Chang, Chih-Pei and Tangang, Fredolin and Aldrian, Edvin and Koh, Tieh Yong and Liew, Juneng},
booktitle = {The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast (2nd Edition)},
doi = {10.1142/9789814343411_0006},
editor = {Chang, Chih-Pei and Ding, Yihui and Lau, Ngar-Cheung and Johnson, Richard H and Wang, Bin and Yasunari, Tetsuzo},
month = {apr},
pages = {85--98},
publisher = {World Scientific},
title = {{The Maritime Continent Monsoon}},
url = {http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/9789814343411{\_}0006},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Robertson2020a,
abstract = {Four state-of-the-art satellite-based estimates of ocean surface latent heat fluxes (LHFs) extending over three decades are analyzed, focusing on the interannual variability and trends of near-global averages and regional patterns. Detailed intercomparisons are made with other datasets including 1) reduced observation reanalyses (RedObs) whose exclusion of satellite data renders them an important independent diagnostic tool; 2) a moisture budget residual LHF estimate using reanalysis moisture transport, atmospheric storage, and satellite precipitation; 3) the ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5); 4) Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) single-sensor passive microwave and scatterometer wind speed retrievals; and 5) several sea surface temperature (SST) datasets. Large disparities remain in near-global satellite LHF trends and their regional expression over the 1990–2010 period, during which time the interdecadal Pacific oscillation changed sign. The budget residual diagnostics support the smaller RedObs LHF trends. The satellites, ERA5, and RedObs are reasonably consistent in identifying contributions by the 10-m wind speed variations to the LHF trend patterns. However, contributions by the near-surface vertical humidity gradient from satellites and ERA5 trend upward in time with respect to the RedObs ensemble and show less agreement in trend patterns. Problems with wind speed retrievals from Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder satellite sensors, excessive upward trends in trends in Optimal Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST AVHRR-Only) data used in most satellite LHF estimates, and uncertainties associated with poor satellite coverage before the mid-1990s are noted. Possibly erroneous trends are also identified in ERA5 LHF associated with the onset of scatterometer wind data assimilation in the early 1990s.},
address = {Boston MA},
author = {Robertson, Franklin R. and Roberts, Jason B. and Bosilovich, Michael G. and Bentamy, Abderrahim and Clayson, Carol Anne and Fennig, Karsten and Schr{\"{o}}der, Marc and Tomita, Hiroyuki and Compo, Gilbert P. and Gutenstein, Marloes and Hersbach, Hans and Kobayashi, Chiaki and Ricciardulli, Lucrezia and Sardeshmukh, Prashant and Slivinski, Laura C.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0954.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {19},
pages = {8415--8437},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Uncertainties in ocean latent heat flux variations over recent decades in satellite-based estimates and reduced observation reanalyses}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/19/jcliD190954.xml},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{robertson2016reconciling,
abstract = {Vertically integrated atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land [vertically integrated atmospheric moisture flux convergence (VMFC)] is a dynamic component of the global climate system but remains problematic in atmospheric reanalyses, with current estimates having significant multidecadal global trends differing even in sign. Continual evolution of the global observing system, particularly stepwise improvements in satellite observations, has introduced discrete changes in the ability of data assimilation to correct systematic model biases, manifesting as nonphysical variability. Land surface models (LSMs) forced with observed precipitation P and near-surface meteorology and radiation provide estimates of evapotranspiration (ET). Since variability of atmospheric moisture storage is small on interannual and longer time scales, VMFC = P − ET is a good approximation and LSMs can provide an alternative estimate. However, heterogeneous density of rain gauge coverage, especially the sparse coverage over tropical continents, remains a serious concern.},
author = {Robertson, Franklin R and Bosilovich, Michael G and Roberts, Jason B},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0379.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {8625--8646},
title = {{Reconciling Land−Ocean Moisture Transport Variability in Reanalyses with P − ET in Observationally Driven Land Surface Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0379.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{robertson2014consistency,
abstract = {Motivated by the question of whether recent interannual to decadal climate variability and a possible “climate shift” may have affected the global water balance, we examine precipitation minus evaporation (P – E) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land for the period 1979–2010 from three points of view—remotely sensed retrievals and syntheses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VMFC) over land, and land surface models (LSMs) forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation, and near-surface meteorology.},
author = {Robertson, F R and Bosilovich, M G and Roberts, J B and Reichle, R H and Adler, R and Ricciardulli, L and Berg, W and Huffman, G J},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00384.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6135--6154},
title = {{Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations over the Satellite Era}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00384.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Robeson:2015,
author = {Robeson, Scott M},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064593},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6771--6779},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Revisiting the recent California drought as an extreme value}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015GL064593},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Robock2008,
abstract = {Anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol production, so as to reduce solar insolation and cool Earth, has been suggested as an emergency response to geoengineer the planet in response to global warming. While volcanic eruptions have been suggested as innocuous examples of stratospheric aerosols cooling the planet, the volcano analog actually argues against geoengineering because of ozone depletion and regional hydrologic and temperature responses. To further investigate the climate response, here we simulate the climate response to both tropical and Arctic stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol precursors using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. We inject SO2 and the model converts it to sulfate aerosols, transports the aerosols and removes them through dry and wet deposition, and calculates the climate response to the radiative forcing from the aerosols. We conduct simulations of future climate with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B business-as-usual scenario both with and without geoengineering and compare the results. We find that if there were a way to continuously inject SO2 into the lower stratosphere, it would produce global cooling. Tropical SO2 injection would produce sustained cooling over most of the world, with more cooling over continents. Arctic SO2 injection would not just cool the Arctic. Both tropical and Arctic SO2 injection would disrupt the Asian and African summer monsoons, reducing precipitation to the food supply for billions of people. These regional climate anomalies are but one of many reasons that argue against the implementation of this kind of geoengineering.},
author = {Robock, Alan and Oman, Luke and Stenchikov, Georgiy L.},
doi = {10.1029/2008JD010050},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {aug},
number = {D16},
pages = {D16101},
title = {{Regional climate responses to geoengineering with tropical and Arctic SO2 injections}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2008JD010050},
volume = {113},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Roca2020,
abstract = {Water and energy cycles are linked to global warming through the water vapor feedback and heavy precipitation events are expected to intensify as the climate warms. For the mid-latitudes, extreme precipitation theory has been successful in explaining the observations, however, studies of responses in the tropics have diverged. Here we present an analysis of satellite-derived observations of daily accumulated precipitation and of the characteristics of convective systems throughout the tropics to investigate the relationship between the organization of mesoscale convective systems and extreme precipitation in the tropics. We find that 40{\%} of the days with more than 250 mm precipitation over land are associated with convective systems that last more than 24 hours, although those systems only represent 5{\%} of mesoscale convective systems overall. We conclude that long-lived mesoscale convective systems that are well organized contribute disproportionally to extreme tropical precipitation.},
author = {Roca, R{\'{e}}my and Fiolleau, Thomas},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-020-00015-4},
issn = {2662-4435},
journal = {Communications Earth {\&} Environment},
number = {1},
pages = {18},
title = {{Extreme precipitation in the tropics is closely associated with long-lived convective systems}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00015-4},
volume = {1},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Roca2019ERL,
abstract = {This study explores the tropical land distribution of precipitation and its extremes focusing on the daily 1°x1°scale. A common period of 5-year over the tropical belt (30°s-30°n) corresponding to more than 39 million data points, is used to highlight the robust (and non-robust) observed features. A set of 10 observational products is analyzed ranging from satellite only to rain gauges only products and various blended intermediates as well as a sub ensemble of satellite-based products relying upon microwave observations. Overall, the various datasets show a small diversity of response as far as tropical land mean precipitation is concerned. When sorted by surface temperature, the spread in mean rainfall is also well below 10{\%} over a large span of the surface temperature regime. The consistency between the surface temperature and the extreme precipitation is further investigated by computing the thermodynamic scaling of daily precipitation extreme with surface temperature. The wet days' 99.9th and 99th percentiles are considered and corresponds to “extreme” extremes ({\~{}}110 mm/d) and “moderate” extremes ({\~{}}60 mm/d), respectively. The analysis reveals three regimes over the 287K-305K 2-meters temperature range. In the cold regime, 287K-293K, extremes exhibit no dependence to surface temperature while in the warm regime, 299K to 305K, the extremes decrease with temperature as identified in previous studies. Over the 293K to 299K regime, the scaling of the sub ensemble of satellite products, for both the “extremes” and “moderate” extremes, is {\~{}}6.5K/{\%} and is robust throughout the sub ensemble. This analysis fills the regional gap of previous conventional data based studies and further confirms the Clausius-Clapeyron theoretical expectation for the tropical land regions.},
author = {Roca, R{\'{e}}my},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab35c6},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {95009},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Estimation of extreme daily precipitation thermodynamic scaling using gridded satellite precipitation products over tropical land}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab35c6},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{rochetin2014deep,
author = {Rochetin, Nicolas and Grandpeix, Jean-Yves and Rio, Catherine and Couvreux, Fleur},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
number = {2},
pages = {515--538},
title = {{Deep convection triggering by boundary layer thermals. Part II: Stochastic triggering parameterization for the LMDZ GCM}},
volume = {71},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Rochetin2014,
abstract = {This paper proposes a new formulation of the deep convection triggering for general circulation model convective parameterizations. This triggering is driven by evolving properties of the strongest boundary layer thermals. To investigate this, a statistical analysis of large-eddy simulation cloud fields in a case of transition from shallow to deep convection over a semiarid land is carried out at different stages of the transition from shallow to deep convection. Based on the dynamical and geometrical properties at cloud base, a new computation of the triggering is first proposed. The analysis of the distribution law of the maximum size of the thermals suggests that, in addition to this necessary condition, another triggering condition is required, that is, that this maximum horizontal size should exceed a certain threshold. This is explicitly represented stochastically. Therefore, the new formulation integrates the whole transition process from the first cloud to the first deep convective cell an...},
author = {Rochetin, Nicolas and Couvreux, Fleur and Grandpeix, Jean Yves and Rio, Catherine},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-12-0336.1},
issn = {00224928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
number = {2},
pages = {496--514},
title = {{Deep convection triggering by boundary layer thermals. Part I: LES analysis and stochastic triggering formulation}},
volume = {71},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Rodell2018,
annote = {FIGURE IDEA - like Rodell's Figure 1 but for main water cycle variables.},
author = {Rodell, M and Famiglietti, J S and Wiese, D N and Reager, J T and Beaudoing, H K and Landerer, F W and Lo, M.-H.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0123-1},
journal = {Nature},
month = {may},
number = {7707},
pages = {651--659},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Emerging trends in global freshwater availability}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0123-1},
volume = {557},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rodell2015,
abstract = {AbstractThis study quantifies mean annual and monthly fluxes of Earth?s water cycle over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the flux estimates are based on satellite measurements first and data-integrating models second. A careful accounting of uncertainty in the estimates is included. It is applied within a routine that enforces multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework in order to produce objectively determined optimized flux estimates. In the majority of cases, the observed annual surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10{\%} residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20{\%} in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are negligible. Fluxes were poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Many of the satellite systems that contributed data have been or will soon be lost or replaced. Models that integrate ground-based and remote observations will be critical for ameliorating gaps and discontinuities in the data records caused by these transitions. Continued development of such models is essential for maximizing the value of the observations. Next-generation observing systems are the best hope for significantly improving global water budget accounting.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Rodell, M. and Beaudoing, H. K. and L'Ecuyer, T. S. and Olson, W. S. and Famiglietti, J. S. and Houser, P. R. and Adler, R. and Bosilovich, M. G. and Clayson, C. A. and Chambers, D. and Clark, E. and Fetzer, E. J. and Gao, X. and Gu, G. and Hilburn, K. and Huffman, G. J. and Lettenmaier, D. P. and Liu, W. T. and Robertson, F. R. and Schlosser, C. A. and Sheffield, J. and Wood, E. F.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00555.1},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {9788578110796},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {21},
pages = {8289--8318},
pmid = {25246403},
title = {{The observed state of the water cycle in the early twenty-first century}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Rodell2009,
abstract = {Indirect evidence suggests that groundwater is being consumed faster than it is naturally being replenished in northwest India, but there has been no regional assessment of the rate of groundwater depletion. Terrestrial water storage-change observations and simulated soil-water variations from a modelling system are now used to show that groundwater is indeed being depleted and that its use for irrigation and other anthropogenic uses is likely to be the cause.},
author = {Rodell, Matthew and Velicogna, Isabella and Famiglietti, James S.},
doi = {10.1038/nature08238},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {aug},
number = {7258},
pages = {999--1002},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India}},
volume = {460},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Roderick2014,
abstract = {Climate models project increases in globally averaged atmospheric specific humidity that are close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) value of around 7{\%} K−1 whilst projections for mean annual global precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) are somewhat muted at around 2{\%} K−1. Such global projections are useful summaries but do not provide guidance at local (grid box) scales where impacts occur. To bridge that gap in spatial scale, previous research has shown that the "wet get wetter and dry get drier" relation, $\Delta$(P − E) {\&}propto; P − E, follows CC scaling when the projected changes are averaged over latitudinal zones. Much of the research on projected climate impacts has been based on an implicit assumption that this CC relation also holds at local (grid box) scales but this has not previously been examined. In this paper we find that the simple latitudinal average CC scaling relation does not hold at local (grid box) scales over either ocean or land. This means that in terms of P − E, the climate models do not project that the "wet get wetter and dry get drier" at the local scales that are relevant for agricultural, ecological and hydrologic impacts. In an attempt to develop a simple framework for local-scale analysis we found that the climate model output shows a remarkably close relation to the long-standing Budyko framework of catchment hydrology. We subsequently use the Budyko curve and find that the local-scale changes in P − E projected by climate models are dominated by changes in P while the changes in net irradiance at the surface due to greenhouse forcing are small and only play a minor role in changing the mean annual P − E in the climate model projections. To further understand the apparently small changes in net irradiance we also examine projections of key surface energy balance terms. In terms of global averages, we find that the climate model projections are dominated by changes in only three terms of the surface energy balance: (1) an increase in the incoming long-wave irradiance, and the respective responses (2) in outgoing long-wave irradiance and (3) in the evaporative flux, with the latter change being much smaller than the former two terms and mostly restricted to the oceans. The small fraction of the realised surface forcing that is partitioned into E explains why the hydrologic sensitivity (2{\%} K−1) is so much smaller than CC scaling (7{\%} K−1). Much public and scientific perception about changes in the water cycle has been based on the notion that temperature enhances E. That notion is partly true but has proved an unfortunate starting point because it has led to misleading conclusions about the impacts of climate change on the water cycle. A better general understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on water availability that are projected by climate models will surely be gained by starting with the notion that the greater the enhancement of E, the less the surface temperature increase (and vice versa). That latter notion is based on the conservation of energy and is an underlying basis of climate model projections.},
author = {Roderick, M. L. and Sun, F. and Lim, W. H. and Farquhar, G. D.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-18-1575-2014},
isbn = {1027-5606},
issn = {16077938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {1575--1589},
publisher = {Copernicus {\{}GmbH{\}}},
title = {{A general framework for understanding the response of the water cycle to global warming over land and ocean}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194{\%}2Fhess-18-1575-2014},
volume = {18},
year = {2014}
}
@article{RodriguezFonseca2015JClim,
abstract = {AbstractThe Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface?atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.},
author = {Rodr{\'{i}}guez-Fonseca, Belen and Mohino, Elsa and Mechoso, Carlos R. and Caminade, Cyril and Biasutti, Michela and Gaetani, Marco and Garcia-Serrano, J. and Vizy, Edward K. and Cook, Kerry and Xue, Yongkang and Polo, Irene and Losada, Teresa and Druyan, Leonard and Fontaine, Bernard and Bader, Juergen and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. and Goddard, Lisa and Janicot, Serge and Arribas, Alberto and Lau, William and Colman, Andrew and Vellinga, M. and Rowell, David P. and Kucharski, Fred and Voldoire, Aurore and Rodr{\'{i}}guez-Fonseca, Belen and Mohino, Elsa and Mechoso, Carlos R. and Caminade, Cyril and Biasutti, Michela and Gaetani, Marco and Garcia-Serrano, J. and Vizy, Edward K. and Cook, Kerry and Xue, Yongkang and Polo, Irene and Losada, Teresa and Druyan, Leonard and Fontaine, Bernard and Bader, Juergen and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. and Goddard, Lisa and Janicot, Serge and Arribas, Alberto and Lau, William and Colman, Andrew and Vellinga, M. and Rowell, David P. and Kucharski, Fred and Voldoire, Aurore},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00130.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate prediction,Climate variability,Monsoons,Teleconnections,Tropical variability},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {4034--4060},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Variability and predictability of west African droughts: A review on the role of sea surface temperature anomalies}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2Fjcli-d-14-00130.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00130.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Roehrig2020,
abstract = {The present study describes the atmospheric component of the sixth-generation climate models of the Centre National de Recherches M{\'{e}}t{\'{e}}orologiques (CNRM), namely, ARPEGE-Climat 6.3. It builds up on more than a decade of model development and tuning efforts, which led to major updates of its moist physics. The vertical resolution has also been significantly increased, both in the boundary layer and in the stratosphere. ARPEGE-Climat 6.3 is now coupled to the new version (8.0) of the SURFace EXternalis{\'{e}}e (SURFEX) surface model, in which several new features (e.g., floodplains, aquifers, and snow processes) improve the water cycle realism. The model calibration is discussed in depth. An amip-type experiment, in which the sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are prescribed, and following the CMIP6 protocol, is extensively evaluated, in terms of climate mean state and variability. ARPEGE-Climat 6.3 is shown to improve over its previous version (5.1) by many climate features. Major improvements include the top-of-atmosphere and surface energy budgets in their various components (shortwave and longwave, total and clear sky), cloud cover, near-surface temperature, precipitation climatology and daily-mean distribution, and water discharges at the outlet of major rivers. In contrast, clouds over subtropical stratocumulus decks, several dynamical variables (sea level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential height), are still significantly biased. The tropical intraseasonal variability and diurnal cycle of precipitation, though improved, remained area of concerns for further model improvement. New biases also emerge, such as a lack of precipitation over several tropical continental areas. Within the CMIP6 context, ARPEGE-Climat 6.3 is the atmospheric component of CNRM-CM6-1 and CNRM-ESM2-1.},
author = {Roehrig, Romain and Beau, Isabelle and Saint-Martin, David and Alias, Antoinette and Decharme, Bertrand and Gu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my, Jean Fran{\c{c}}ois and Voldoire, Aurore and Abdel-Lathif, Ahmat Younous and Bazile, Eric and Belamari, Sophie and Blein, Sebastien and Bouniol, Dominique and Bouteloup, Yves and Cattiaux, Julien and Chauvin, Fabrice and Chevallier, Matthieu and Colin, Jeanne and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Marquet, Pascal and Michou, Martine and Nabat, Pierre and Oudar, Thomas and Peyrill{\'{e}}, Philippe and Piriou, Jean Marcel and {Salas y M{\'{e}}lia}, David and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland and S{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}si, St{\'{e}}phane},
doi = {10.1029/2020MS002075},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
number = {7},
pages = {1--53},
title = {{The CNRM Global Atmosphere Model ARPEGE-Climat 6.3: Description and Evaluation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002075},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{rbghr13,
abstract = {The present assessment of the West African monsoon in the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) indicates little evolution since the third phase of CMIP (CMIP3) in terms of both biases in present-day climate and climate projections.},
author = {Roehrig, Romain and Bouniol, Dominique and Guichard, Francoise and Hourdin, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Redelsperger, Jean-Luc},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00505.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6471--6505},
title = {{The Present and Future of the West African Monsoon: A Process-Oriented Assessment of CMIP5 Simulations along the AMMA Transect}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00505.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Rojas2016,
abstract = {Abstract. In this paper we assess South American monsoon system (SAMS) variability in the last millennium as depicted by global coupled climate model simulations. High-resolution proxy records for the South American monsoon over this period show a coherent regional picture of a weak monsoon during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and a stronger monsoon during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Due to the small external forcing during the past 1000 years, model simulations do not show very strong temperature anomalies over these two specific periods, which in turn do not translate into clear precipitation anomalies, in contrast with the rainfall reconstructions in South America. Therefore, we used an ad hoc definition of these two periods for each model simulation in order to account for model-specific signals. Thereby, several coherent large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies are identified. The models feature a stronger monsoon during the LIA associated with (i) an enhancement of the rising motion in the SAMS domain in austral summer; (ii) a stronger monsoon-related upper-tropospheric anticyclone; (iii) activation of the South American dipole, which results in a poleward shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone; and (iv) a weaker upper-level subtropical jet over South America. The diagnosed changes provide important insights into the mechanisms of these climate anomalies over South America during the past millennium.},
author = {Rojas, Maisa and Arias, Paola A. and Flores-Aqueveque, Valentina and Seth, Anji and Vuille, Mathias},
doi = {10.5194/cp-12-1681-2016},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {8},
pages = {1681--1691},
title = {{The South American monsoon variability over the last millennium in climate models}},
volume = {12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Romps2016,
abstract = {By deriving analytical solutions to radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE), it is shown mathematically that convective available potential energy (CAPE) exhibits Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling over a wide range of surface temperatures up to 310 K. Above 310 K, CAPE deviates from CC scaling and even decreases with warming at very high surface temperatures. At the surface temperature of the current tropics, the analytical solutions predict that CAPE increases at a rate of about 6{\%}–7{\%} per kelvin of surface warming. The analytical solutions also provide insight on how the tropopause height and stratospheric humidity change with warming. Changes in the tropopause height exhibit CC scaling, with the tropopause rising by about 400 m per kelvin of surface warming at current tropical temperatures and by about 1–2 km K 21 at surface temperatures in the range of 320–340 K. The specific humidity of the stratosphere exhibits super-CC scaling at temperatures moderately warmer than the current tropics. With a surface temperature of the current tropics, the strato-spheric specific humidity increases by about 6{\%} per kelvin of surface warming, but the rate of increase is as high as 30{\%} K 21 at warmer surface temperatures.},
author = {Romps, David M.},
doi = {10.1175/jas-d-15-0327.1},
issn = {0022-4928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
number = {9},
pages = {3719--3737},
title = {{Clausius–Clapeyron Scaling of CAPE from Analytical Solutions to RCE}},
volume = {73},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ronchail2018,
abstract = {Study region The upper Amazon River, where the water level measured at the Tamshiyacu station (Peru) shows seasonal variability of seven meters. Study focus Key parameters for the flood recession period (beginning, end and duration of the low-water period, velocity of water falling and rising, and inversions in the direction of stage change known as “repiquete” events) are analyzed for the period 1985–2015, along with their relationship to rainfall integrated in the upper Amazon basin at Tamshiyacu. New hydrological insights The low-water period lasts about four months, beginning, on average, at the end of July and ending in early November. Since the late 1990s, the low-water period has tended to end later, last longer and the flood recession ends more abruptly than it used to. This may be related to the increased frequency of dry days during the austral winter in the central and southern part of the basin and to increased and more intense rainfall in late spring (November–December). Repiquete events are frequent, 8 each year on average, and sometimes very acute: 18 events with a water-level reversal greater than one meter were registered during the 1985–2015 period. They are related to unusual, intense and extended rainfall during the week preceding the repiquete. Extensions of this preliminary work are suggested, as well as possible implications for recessional agriculture.},
author = {Ronchail, Josyane and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Drapeau, Guillaume and Sabot, Manon and Cochonneau, G{\'{e}}rard and Schor, Tatiana},
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.11.008},
issn = {22145818},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
keywords = {Amazon river,Flood recession period,Peru,Rainfall,Water level},
number = {December 2017},
pages = {16--30},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{The flood recession period in Western Amazonia and its variability during the 1985–2015 period}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.11.008},
volume = {15},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rosenfeld2008,
abstract = {Aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and thus have a substantial effect on cloud properties and the initiation of precipitation. Large concentrations of human-made aerosols have been reported to both decrease and increase rainfall as a result of their radiative and CCN activities. At one extreme, pristine tropical clouds with low CCN concentrations rain out too quickly to mature into long-lived clouds. On the other hand, heavily polluted clouds evaporate much of their water before precipitation can occur, if they can form at all given the reduced surface heating resulting from the aerosol haze layer. We propose a conceptual model that explains this apparent dichotomy.},
author = {Rosenfeld, Daniel and Lohmann, Ulrike and Raga, Graciela B and O'Dowd, Colin D. and Kulmala, Markku and Fuzzi, Sandro and Reissell, Anni and Andreae, Meinrat O},
doi = {10.1126/science.1160606},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {sep},
number = {5894},
pages = {1309--1313},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Flood or Drought: How Do Aerosols Affect Precipitation?}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1160606},
volume = {321},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Rosenfeld2000,
abstract = {Direct evidence demonstrates that urban and industrial air pollution can completely shut off precipitation from clouds that have temperatures at their tops of about -10°C over large areas. Satellite data reveal plumes of reduced cloud particle size and suppressed precipitation originating from major urban areas and from industrial facilities such as power plants. Measurements obtained by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite reveal that both cloud droplet coalescence and ice precipitation formation are inhibited in polluted clouds. CR - Copyright {\&}{\#}169; 2000 American Association for the Advancement of Science},
author = {Rosenfeld, Daniel},
doi = {10.1126/science.287.5459.1793},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {00368075},
journal = {Science},
number = {5459},
pages = {1793--1796},
pmid = {10710302},
title = {{Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution}},
volume = {287},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Rosenfeld2019Science,
abstract = {Lack of reliable estimates of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) aerosols over oceans has severely limited our ability to quantify their effects on cloud properties and extent of cooling by reflecting solar radiation – a key uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing. Here we introduce a methodology for ascribing cloud properties to CCN and isolating the aerosol effects from meteorological effects. Its application showed that, for a given meteorology, CCN explains 3/4 of the variability in clouds radiative cooling effect, mainly through affecting shallow cloud cover and water path. This reveals a much greater sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing to CCN than previously reported, which means too much cooling if incorporated in present climate models. This hints to yet unknown compensating aerosol warming effects, possibly through deep clouds.},
author = {Rosenfeld, Daniel and Zhu, Yannian and Wang, Minghuai and Zheng, Youtong and Goren, Tom and Yu, Shaocai},
doi = {10.1126/science.aav0566},
isbn = {1665952016},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {feb},
number = {6427},
pages = {eaav0566},
pmid = {30655446},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science ({\{}AAAS{\}})},
title = {{Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav0566 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aav0566},
volume = {363},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rotstayn2013,
abstract = {Abstract. All the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) include declining aerosol emissions during the 21st century, but the effects of these declines on climate projections have had little attention. Here we assess the global and hemispheric-scale effects of declining anthropogenic aerosols in RCP4.5 in CSIRO-Mk3.6, a model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results from this model are then compared with those from other CMIP5 models. We calculate the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF, including indirect effects) in CSIRO-Mk3.6 relative to 1850, using a series of atmospheric simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SST). Global-mean aerosol ERF at the top of the atmosphere is most negative in 2005 (−1.47 W m−2). Between 2005 and 2100 it increases by 1.46 W m−2, i.e., it approximately returns to 1850 levels. Although increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and declining aerosols both exert a positive ERF at the top of the atmosphere during the 21st century, they have opposing effects on radiative heating of the atmosphere: increasing GHGs warm the atmosphere, whereas declining aerosols cool the atmosphere due to reduced absorption of shortwave radiation by black carbon (BC). We then compare two projections for 2006–2100, using the coupled atmosphere-ocean version of the model. One (RCP45) follows the usual RCP4.5; the other (RCP45A2005) has identical forcing, except that emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and precursors are fixed at 2005 levels. The global-mean surface warming in RCP45 is 2.3 °C per 95 yr, of which almost half (1.1 °C) is caused by declining aerosols. The warming due to declining aerosols is almost twice as strong in the Northern Hemisphere as in the Southern Hemisphere, whereas that due to increasing GHGs is similar in the two hemispheres. For precipitation changes, the effects of declining aerosols are larger than those of increasing GHGs due to decreasing atmospheric absorption by black carbon: 63{\%} of the projected global-mean precipitation increase of 0.16 mm per day is caused by declining aerosols. In the Northern Hemisphere, precipitation increases by 0.29 mm per day, of which 72{\%} is caused by declining aerosols. Comparing 13 CMIP5 models, we find a correlation of –0.54 (significant at 5{\%}) between aerosol ERF in the present climate and projected global-mean surface warming in RCP4.5; thus, models that have more negative aerosol ERF in the present climate tend to project stronger warming during 2006–2100. A similar correlation (–0.56) is found between aerosol ERF and projected changes in global-mean precipitation. These results suggest that aerosol forcing substantially modulates projected climate response in RCP4.5. In some respects, the effects of declining aerosols are quite distinct from those of increasing GHGs. Systematic efforts are needed to better quantify the role of declining aerosols in climate projections.},
author = {Rotstayn, L. D. and Collier, M. A. and Chrastansky, A. and Jeffrey, S. J. and Luo, J.-J.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-13-10883-2013},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {10883--10905},
title = {{Projected effects of declining aerosols in RCP4.5: unmasking global warming?}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/10883/2013/},
volume = {13},
year = {2013}
}
@article{rcl15,
author = {Rotstayn, L D and Collier, M A and Luo, J.-j.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044018},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {044018},
title = {{Effects of declining aerosols on projections of zonally averaged tropical precipitation}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044018},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Rotstayn2002,
abstract = {Abstract An atmospheric global climate model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model is used to study changes in tropical rainfall due to the indirect effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. The model is run to equilibrium for present-day (PD) and preindustrial (PI) sulfur emission scenarios. As in two other recent studies, the model generally gives a southward shift of tropical rainfall in the PD run relative to the PI run. This is largely due to a hemispheric asymmetry in the reduction of sea surface temperature (SST) induced by the perturbation of cloud albedo and lifetime. Observed precipitation trends over land for the period 1900–98 show a complex pattern in the Tropics, but when zonally averaged, a southward shift similar to (but weaker than) the modeled shift is clearly evident. The zonally averaged tropical trends are significant at the 5{\%} level in several latitude bands. The modeled present-day hemispheric contrast in cloud droplet effective radius (which affects cloud albedo) is well supported b...},
author = {Rotstayn, Leon D. and Lohmann, Ulrike and Rotstayn, Leon D. and Lohmann, Ulrike},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2103:TRTATI>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {2103--2116},
title = {{Tropical Rainfall Trends and the Indirect Aerosol Effect}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442{\%}282002{\%}29015{\%}3C2103{\%}3ATRTATI{\%}3E2.0.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {15},
year = {2002}
}
@article{Rotstayn2012,
abstract = {Abstract. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the drivers of trends in summer rainfall and circulation in the vicinity of northern Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we perform a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). To investigate the roles of different forcing agents, we also perform multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951–2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO{\_}AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO{\_}AA. CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong summer rainfall decrease over north-western Australia (NWA) in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weakly positive (but insignificant) during 1951–2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol-induced increase. Observations show a significant increase of summer rainfall over NWA during the last few decades. The large magnitude of the observed NWA rainfall trend is not captured by 440 unforced 60-yr trends calculated from a 500-yr pre-industrial control run, even though the model's decadal variability appears to be realistic. This suggests that the observed trend includes a forced component, despite the fact that the model does not simulate the magnitude of the observed rainfall increase in response to "all forcings" (HIST). We investigate the mechanism of simulated and observed NWA rainfall changes by exploring changes in circulation over the Indo-Pacific region. The key circulation feature associated with the rainfall increase in reanalyses is a lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA, which enhances the monsoonal flow. The model shows an aerosol-induced cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO{\_}AA, whereas GHGAS shows an anticyclonic circulation trend. This explains why the aerosol-induced effect is an increase of rainfall over NWA, and the greenhouse gas-induced effect is of opposite sign. Possible explanations for the cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation trend in HIST minus NO{\_}AA (GHGAS) involve changes in the Walker circulation or the local Hadley circulation. In either case, a plausible atmospheric mechanism is that the circulation anomaly is a Rossby wave response to convective heating anomalies south of the Equator. We also discuss the possible role of air-sea interactions, e.g. an increase (decrease) of sea-surface temperatures off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO{\_}AA (GHGAS). Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms and the extent to which these are model-dependent. In summary, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols may have "masked" greenhouse gas-induced changes in rainfall over NWA and in circulation over the wider Indo-Pacific region. Due to the opposing effects of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, future trends may be very different from trends observed over the last few decades.},
author = {Rotstayn, L. D. and Jeffrey, S. J. and Collier, M. A. and Dravitzki, S. M. and Hirst, A. C. and Syktus, J. I. and Wong, K. K.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-12-6377-2012},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {6377--6404},
title = {{Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/6377/2012/},
volume = {12},
year = {2012}
}
@article{rs17,
abstract = {Feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere can play an important role in the water cycle, and a number of studies have quantified land–atmosphere (LA) interactions and feedbacks through observations and prediction models. Because of the complex nature of LA interactions, the observed variables are not always available at the needed temporal and spatial scales. This work derives the Coupling Drought Index (CDI) solely from satellite data and evaluates the input variables and the resultant CDI against in situ data and reanalysis products. NASA's Aqua satellite and retrievals of soil moisture and lower-tropospheric temperature and humidity properties are used as input. Overall, the Aqua-based CDI and its inputs perform well at a point, spatially, and in time (trends) compared to in situ and reanalysis products. In addition, this work represents the first time that in situ observations were utilized for the coupling classification and CDI. The combination of in situ and satellite remote sensing CDI is unique and provides an observational tool for evaluating models at local and large scales. Overall, results indicate that there is sufficient information in the signal from simultaneous measurements of the land and atmosphere from satellite remote sensing to provide useful information for applications of drought monitoring and coupling metrics.},
author = {Roundy, Joshua K and Santanello, Joseph A},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-16-0171.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {863--877},
title = {{Utility of Satellite Remote Sensing for Land–Atmosphere Coupling and Drought Metrics}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0171.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0171.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Rowell2012,
author = {Rowell, David P},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-011-1210-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {precipitation {\'{a}} climate change,tropics {\'{a}} multi-model ensemble,{\'{a}}  {\'{a}}},
month = {oct},
number = {7-8},
pages = {1929--1950},
title = {{Sources of uncertainty in future changes in local precipitation}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-011-1210-2},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Rowell2015,
abstract = {The ‘‘long rains'' season of East Africa has recently experienced a series of devastating droughts, whereas the majority of climate models predict increasing rainfall for the coming decades. This has been termed the East African climate paradox and has implications for developing viable adaptation policies. A logical framework is adopted that leads to six key hypotheses that could explain this paradox. The first hypothesis that the recent observed trend is due to poor quality data is promptly rejected. An initial judgment on the second hypothesis that the projected trend is founded on poor modeling is beyond the scope of a single study. Analysis of a natural variability hypothesis suggests this is unlikely to have been the dominant driver of recent droughts, although it may have contributed. The next two hypotheses explore whether the balance between competing forcings could be changing. Regarding the possibility that the past trend could be due to changing anthropogenic aerosol emissions, the results of sensitivity experiments are highly model dependent, but some show a significant impact on the patterns of tropical SST trends, aspects of which likely caused the recent long rains droughts. Further experiments suggest land-use changes are unlikely to have caused the recent droughts. The last hypothesis that the response to CO2 emissions is nonlinear explains no more than 10{\%} of the contrast between recent and projected trends. In conclusion, it is recommended that research priorities now focus on providing a process-based expert judgment of the reliability of East Africa projections, improving the modeling of aerosol impacts on rainfall, and better understanding the relevant natural variability.},
author = {Rowell, David P. and Booth, Ben B.B. and Nicholson, Sharon E. and Good, Peter},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0140.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Africa,Anthropogenic effects,Atm/Ocean structure/Phenomena,Climate models,Climate variability,Drought,Geographic location/entity,Models and modeling,Physical meteorology and climatology,Rainfall,Variability},
number = {24},
pages = {9768--9788},
title = {{Reconciling past and future rainfall trends over East Africa}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Roxy_2017,
abstract = {Socioeconomic challenges continue to mount for half a billion residents of central India because of a decline in the total rainfall and a concurrent rise in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. Alongside a weakening monsoon circulation, the locally available moisture and the frequency of moisture-laden depressions from the Bay of Bengal have also declined. Here we show that despite these negative trends, there is a threefold increase in widespread extreme rain events over central India during 1950–2015. The rise in these events is due to an increasing variability of the low-level monsoon westerlies over the Arabian Sea, driving surges of moisture supply, leading to extreme rainfall episodes across the entire central subcontinent. The homogeneity of these severe weather events and their association with the ocean temperatures underscores the potential predictability of these events by two-to-three weeks, which offers hope in mitigating their catastrophic impact on life, agriculture and property.},
author = {Roxy, M. K. and Ghosh, Subimal and Pathak, Amey and Athulya, R. and Mujumdar, Milind and Murtugudde, Raghu and Terray, Pascal and Rajeevan, M.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {oct},
number = {1},
pages = {708},
pmid = {28974680},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fs41467-017-00744-9},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Roxy2015,
abstract = {here are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian summer monsoon, with several studies debating whether the monsoon is weakening or strengthening in a changing climate. Our analysis using multiple observed datasets demonstrates a significant weakening trend in summer rainfall during 1901–2012 over the central-east and northern regions of India, along the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins and the Himalayan foothills, where agriculture is still largely rain-fed. Earlier studies have suggested an increase in moisture availability and land-sea thermal gradient in the tropics due to anthropogenic warming, favouring an increase in tropical rainfall. Here we show that the land-sea thermal gradient over South Asia has been decreasing, due to rapid warming in the Indian Ocean and a relatively subdued warming over the subcontinent. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we provide compelling evidence that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land-sea thermal contrast, dampens the summer monsoon Hadley circulation, and thereby reduces the rainfall over parts of South Asia.},
author = {Roxy, Mathew Koll and Ritika, Kapoor and Terray, Pascal and Murtugudde, Raghu and Ashok, Karumuri and Goswami, B. N. and Roxy et al.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms8423},
isbn = {2041-1723 (Electronic) 2041-1723 (Linking)},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Ocean sciences,Physical oceanography},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {7423},
pmid = {26077934},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian ocean warming and a weakening land–sea thermal gradient}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8423 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Roxy2019a,
abstract = {The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most dominant mode of subseasonal variability in the tropics, characterized by an eastward-moving band of rain clouds. The MJO modulates the El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation1, tropical cyclones2,3 and the monsoons4–10, and contributes to severe weather events over Asia, Australia, Africa, Europe and the Americas. MJO events travel a distance of 12,000–20,000 km across the tropical oceans, covering a region that has been warming during the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries in response to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases11, and is projected to warm further. However, the impact of this warming on the MJO life cycle is largely unknown. Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 105 km2 (the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 105 km2 (the size of California) per year during 1981–2018. The changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the MJO are related to increased rainfall over southeast Asia, northern Australia, Southwest Africa and the Amazon, and drying over the west coast of the United States and Ecuador.},
author = {Roxy, M. K. and Dasgupta, Panini and McPhaden, Michael J. and Suematsu, Tamaki and Zhang, Chidong and Kim, Daehyun},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1764-4},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
month = {nov},
number = {7784},
pages = {647--651},
title = {{Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1764-4},
volume = {575},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Roy2019a,
author = {Roy, Indrani and Tedeschi, Renata G. and Collins, Matthew},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5999},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {may},
number = {6},
pages = {3031--3042},
title = {{ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon under changing climate}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5999 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5999},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ruiz-Vasquez2020,
abstract = {The water cycle over the Amazon basin is a regulatory mechanism for regional and global climate. The atmospheric moisture evaporated from this basin represents an important source of humidity for itself and for other remote regions. The deforestation rates that this basin has experienced in the past decades have implications for regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport. In this study, we analyzed the changes in atmospheric moisture transport towards tropical South America during the period 1961–2010, according to two deforestation scenarios of the Amazon defined by Alves et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 100(3-4):337–350, 2017). These scenarios consider deforested areas of approximately 28{\%} and 38{\%} of the Amazon basin, respectively. The Dynamic Recycling Model is used to track the transport of water vapor from different sources in tropical South America and the surrounding oceans. Our results indicate that under deforestation scenarios in the Amazon basin, continental sources reduce their contributions to northern South America at an annual scale by an average of between 40 and 43{\%} with respect to the baseline state. Our analyses suggest that these changes may be related to alterations in the regional Hadley and Walker cells. Amazon deforestation also induces a strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow that transports atmospheric moisture from the Tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea to tropical South America during the austral summer. A weakening of the cross-equatorial flow is observed during the boreal summer, reducing moisture transport from the Amazon to latitudes further north. These changes alter the patterns of precipitable water contributions to tropical South America from both continental and oceanic sources. Finally, we observed that deforestation over the Amazon basin increases the frequency of occurrence of longer dry seasons in the central-southern Amazon (by between 29 and 57{\%}), depending on the deforestation scenario considered, as previous studies suggest.},
author = {Ruiz-V{\'{a}}squez, Melissa and Arias, Paola A. and Mart{\'{i}}nez, J. Alejandro and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05223-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Amazon deforestation,Atmospheric circulation,Tropical South America,Water vapor transport},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {4169--4189},
title = {{Effects of Amazon basin deforestation on regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport towards tropical South America}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05223-4},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ruosteenoja2018a,
abstract = {Projections for near-surface soil moisture content in Europe for the 21st century were derived from simulations performed with 26 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). Two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were considered. Unlike in previous research in general, projections were calculated separately for all four calendar seasons. To make the moisture contents simulated by the various GCMs commensurate, the moisture data were normalized by the corresponding local maxima found in the output of each individual GCM. A majority of the GCMs proved to perform satisfactorily in simulating the geographical distribution of recent soil moisture in the warm season, the spatial correlation with an satellite-derived estimate varying between 0.4 and 0.8. In southern Europe, long-term mean soil moisture is projected to decline substantially in all seasons. In summer and autumn, pronounced soil drying also afflicts western and central Europe. In northern Europe, drying mainly occurs in spring, in correspondence with an earlier melt of snow and soil frost. The spatial pattern of drying is qualitatively similar for both RCP scenarios, but weaker in magnitude under RCP4.5. In general, those GCMs that simulate the largest decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature and solar radiation tend to produce the most severe soil drying. Concurrently with the reduction of time-mean soil moisture, episodes with an anomalously low soil moisture, occurring once in 10 years in the recent past simulations, become far more common. In southern Europe by the late 21st century under RCP8.5, such events would be experienced about every second year.},
author = {Ruosteenoja, Kimmo and Markkanen, Tiina and Ven{\"{a}}l{\"{a}}inen, Ari and R{\"{a}}is{\"{a}}nen, Petri and Peltola, Heli},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3671-4},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CMIP5 GCMs,Climate change,Model validation,Near-surface Representative concentration pathways (RCPs)},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1177--1192},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century}},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rupp2013,
abstract = {[1] Monthly temperature and precipitation data from 41 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were compared to observations for the 20th century, with a focus on the United States Pacific Northwest (PNW) and surrounding region. A suite of statistics, or metrics, was calculated, that included correlation and variance of mean seasonal spatial patterns, amplitude of seasonal cycle, diurnal temperature range, annual- to decadal-scale variance, long-term persistence, and regional teleconnections to El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Performance, or credibility, was assessed based on the GCMs' abilities to reproduce the observed metrics. GCMs were ranked in their credibility using two methods. The first simply treated all metrics equally. The second method considered two properties of the metrics: (1) redundancy of information (dependence) among metrics, and (2) confidence in the reliability of an individual metric for accurately ranking models. Confidence was related to how robust the estimate of the metric was to ensemble size, given that for most of the models only a small number of ensemble members (i.e., realizations of the 20th century) were available. A cursory comparison with 24 CMIP3 models revealed few differences between the two generations of models with respect to the statistics analyzed.},
author = {Rupp, David E. and Abatzoglou, John T. and Hegewisch, Katherine C. and Mote, Philip W.},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50843},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {20th century,CMIP5,Pacific Northwest,empirical orthogonal function},
number = {19},
pages = {10884--10906},
title = {{Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA}},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Ruprich-Robert2017a,
author = {Ruprich-Robert, Yohan and Msadek, Rym and Castruccio, Frederic and Yeager, Stephen and Delworth, Tom and Danabasoglu, Gokhan},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0127.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2785--2810},
title = {{Assessing the Climate Impacts of the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Using the GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR CESM1 Global Coupled Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0127.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sánchez2015,
abstract = {The results of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations over South America are presented. This is the first coordinated exercise of regional climate modelling studies over the continent, as part of the CLARIS-LPB EU FP7 project. The results of different future periods, with the main focus on (2071--2100) is shown, when forced by several global climate models, all using the A1B greenhouse gases emissions scenario. The analysis is focused on the mean climate conditions for both temperature and precipitation. The common climate change signals show an overall increase of temperature for all the seasons and regions, generally larger for the austral winter season. Future climate shows a precipitation decrease over the tropical region, and an increase over the subtropical areas. These climate change signals arise independently of the driving global model and the RCM. The internal variability of the driving global models introduces a very small level of uncertainty, compared with that due to the choice of the driving model and the RCM. Moreover, the level of uncertainty is larger for longer horizon projections for both temperature and precipitation. The uncertainty in the temperature changes is larger for the subtropical than for the tropical ones. The current analysis allows identification of the common climate change signals and their associated uncertainties for several subregions within the South American continent.},
author = {S{\'{a}}nchez, E and Solman, S and Remedio, A R C and Berbery, H and Samuelsson, P and {Da Rocha}, R P and Mour{\~{a}}o, C and Li, L and Marengo, J and de Castro, M and Jacob, D},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2466-0},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {oct},
number = {7},
pages = {2193--2212},
title = {{Regional climate modelling in CLARIS-LPB: a concerted approach towards twentyfirst century projections of regional temperature and precipitation over South America}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2466-0},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{TPSabinetal2013,
author = {Sabin, T.P. and Krishnan, R. and Ghattas, Josefine and Denvil, Sebastien and Dufresne, Jean-Louis and Hourdin, Frederic and Pascal, Terray},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1658-8},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {173--194},
title = {{High resolution simulation of the South Asian monsoon using a variable resolution global climate model}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1658-8},
volume = {41},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Saffioti2016a,
abstract = {Europe experienced a pronounced winter cooling of about −0.37°C/decade in the period 1989–2012, in contrast to the strong warming simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multimodel average during the same period. Even more pronounced discrepancies between observed and simulated short-term trends are found at the local scale, e.g., a strong winter cooling over Switzerland and a pronounced reduction in precipitation along the coast of Norway. We show that monthly sea level pressure variability accounts for much of the short-term variations of temperature over most of the domain and of precipitation in certain regions. Removing the effect of atmospheric circulation through a regression approach reconciles the observed temperature trends over Europe and Switzerland and the precipitation trend along the coast of Norway with the corresponding multimodel mean trends.},
author = {Saffioti, Claudio and Fischer, Erich M. and Scherrer, Simon C. and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL069802},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Europe,atmospheric circulation,dynamical adjustment,internal climate variability,precipitation trends,temperature trends},
number = {15},
pages = {8189--8198},
title = {{Reconciling observed and modeled temperature and precipitation trends over Europe by adjusting for circulation variability}},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Saha2014,
abstract = {Impacts of climate change on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the growing population pose a major threat to water and food security in India. Adapting to such changes needs reliable projections of ISMR by general circulation models. Here we find that, majority of new generation climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5 (CMIP5) fail to simulate the post-1950 decreasing trend of ISMR. The weakening of monsoon is associated with the warming of Southern Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic formation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We also find that these large-scale changes are not captured by CMIP5 models, with few exceptions, which is the reason of this failure. Proper representation of these highlighted geophysical processes in next generation models may improve the reliability of ISMR projections. Our results also alert the water resource planners to evaluate the CMIP5 models before using them for adaptation strategies.},
author = {Saha, Anamitra and Ghosh, Subimal and Sahana, A. S. and Rao, E. P.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL061573},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,Indian monsoon,model evaluation},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {7323--7330},
title = {{Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL061573},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Sahany_2018,
abstract = {Abstract We analyzed 113 years (1901–2013) of daily rainfall over India to investigate spatiotemporalvariability of rainfall seasonality. Rainfall seasonality and mean annual rainfall were found to be high overthe Western Ghats, central, and northeastern parts of India and over the Indo-Gangetic plains, and low overnorthwest, southern, and northernmost parts of India. Significant decreasing trends in seasonality coupledwith decreasing rainfall were found over parts of central India, the Indo-Gangetic plains, and parts of WesternGhats. Trends in timing of peak rainfall indicate later occurrence in the season, especially over southernIndo-Gangetic plains, by {\~{}}10–20 days per century. In addition, there is a general decrease in the wet-seasonduration throughout India by {\~{}}10–20 days per century. El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean seasurface temperatures were found to strongly influence seasonality and rainfall over large parts of India. Thechanges to rainfall and its seasonality will have profound socioeconomic implications for India.Plain Language Summary Daily rainfall data based on ground-based observations over India hasbeen analyzed for the period 1901–2013 to investigate rainfall seasonality. Rainfall seasonality is found tobe high over some parts of India and low over others. Analysis of trends in seasonality and total annual rainfallin the last 113 years reveal that there has been a significant decreasing trend in both over parts of centralIndia, the Indo-Gangetic plains, and parts of Western Ghats. The timing of peak rainfall shows a tendency forlater occurrence in the season, especially over southern Indo-Gangetic plains, by {\~{}}10–20 days per century.There is also a general decrease in the wet-season duration throughout India by {\~{}}10–20 days per century. ElNi{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillations and sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean were found to stronglyinfluence seasonality and rainfall over large parts of India. The changes to rainfall and its seasonality canpotentially have significant socioeconomic implications for India.},
annote = {Significant decreasing trends in rainfall, wet season duration and seasonality and rainfall over parts of India but affected strongly by internal variability},
author = {Sahany, Sandeep and Mishra, Saroj K. and Pathak, Raju and Rajagopalan, Balaji},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL077932},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate change,ENSO,IODn Monsoon,Seasonality},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {7140--7147},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Spatiotemporal Variability of Seasonality of Rainfall Over India}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029{\%}2F2018gl077932},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sahoo2016,
abstract = {Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m2/decade although the summer (May-October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m2/decade) during the period 1968-2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m2/decade and 8.66 kg/m2/decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014-2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.},
author = {Sahoo, G. B. and Forrest, A. L. and Schladow, S. G. and Reuter, J. E. and Coats, R. and Dettinger, M.},
doi = {10.1002/lno.10228},
issn = {00243590},
journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {496--507},
title = {{Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/lno.10228},
volume = {61},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Saide2015,
author = {Saide, P. E. and Spak, S. N. and Pierce, R. B. and Otkin, J. A. and Schaack, T. K. and Heidinger, A. K. and da Silva, A. M. and Kacenelenbogen, M. and Redemann, J. and Carmichael, G. R.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL062826},
issn = {1944-8007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {956--965},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Central American biomass burning smoke can increase tornado severity in the U.S.}},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Saint-Lu2020a,
abstract = {By comparing a Single Column Model (SCM) with closely related General Circulation Models (GCMs), precipitation changes that can be diagnosed from local changes in surface temperature ( T S ) and relative humidity ( RH S ) are separated from more complex responses. In the SCM set-up, the large-scale tropical circulation is parametrized to respond to the surface temperature departure from a prescribed environment, following the Weak Temperature Gradient (WTG) approximation and using the Damped Gravity Wave (DGW) parametrization. The SCM is also forced with moisture variations. First, it is found that most of the present-day mean tropical rainfall and circulation pattern is associated with T S and RH S patterns. Climate change experiments with the SCM are performed, imposing separately surface warming and CO 2 increase. The rainfall response to future changes in sea surface temperature patterns and plant physiology are successfully reproduced, suggesting that these are direct responses to local changes in convective instability. However, the SCM increases oceanic rainfall too much, and fails to reproduce the land rainfall decrease, that are both associated with uniform ocean warming. It is argued that remote atmospheric teleconnections play a crucial role in both weakening the atmospheric overturning circulation and constraining precipitation changes. Results suggest that the overturning circulation weakens, both as a direct local response to increased CO 2 and in response to energy-imbalance driven exchanges between ascent and descent regions.},
author = {Saint-Lu, Marion and Chadwick, Robin and Lambert, F. Hugo and Collins, Matthew and Boutle, Ian and Whitall, Michael and Daleu, Chimene},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-19-0450.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {10},
pages = {4045--4063},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Influences of local and remote conditions on tropical precipitation and its response to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0450.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sakschewski:2016aa,
author = {Sakschewski, Boris and von Bloh, Werner and Boit, Alice and Poorter, Lourens and Pe{\~{n}}a-Claros, Marielos and Heinke, Jens and Joshi, Jasmin and Thonicke, Kirsten},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3109},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1032--1036},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group SN -},
title = {{Resilience of Amazon forests emerges from plant trait diversity}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3109 http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3109},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Salazar2018,
abstract = {Many natural and social phenomena depend on river flow regimes that are being altered by global change. Understanding the mechanisms behind such alterations is crucial for predicting river flow regimes in a changing environment. Here we introduce a novel physical interpretation of the scaling properties of river flows, and show that it leads to a parsimonious characterization of the flow regime of any river basin. This allows to classify river basins as regulated or unregulated, and to identify a critical threshold between these states. We applied this framework to the Amazon river basin and found both states among its main tributaries. Then we introduce the forest reservoir concept to explain how forest loss can force the Amazonian river basins from regulated to unregulated states. Our results provide theoretical and applied foundations for predicting hydrological impacts of global change, including the detection of early-warning signals for critical transitions in river basins.},
author = {Salazar, Juan Fernando and Villegas, Juan Camilo and Rend{\'{o}}n, Angela Mar{\'{i}}a and Rodr{\'{i}}guez, Estiven and Hoyos, Isabel and Mercado-Bett{\'{i}}n, Daniel and Poveda, Germ{\'{a}}n},
doi = {10.5194/hess-22-1735-2018},
issn = {16077938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {3},
pages = {1735--1748},
title = {{Scaling properties reveal regulation of river flows in the Amazon through a “forest reservoir”}},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Salinger2014,
abstract = {Quality controlled and recently homogenised mean sea level pressure records for the South Pacific are used to specify the location and variability of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) during the austral warm season (November–April). The SPCZ is the world's largest rainfall band during the austral summer, when it dominates the climate of the South Pacific. A new index called the South Pacific convergence zone index (SPCZI) is derived, and is shown to be coherent with changes in low level wind convergence associated with the SPCZ. This index replaces the earlier SPCZ position index because it uses higher quality mean sea level pressure data than the superseded index and extends the time series further forward in time. The SPCZI allows interannual to decadal variability in the climate of the South Pacific to be tracked for more than a century from 1910/1911 to 2011/2012. During El Ni{\~{n}}o episodes the SPCZ is displaced by about 1°–3° east, and La Ni{\~{n}}a events 1°–3° west of the mean position on average. The index indicates a striking movement eastward for the period 1977/78–1998/99, compared with 1944/45–1976/77 in association with the Interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). The eastward movement of the SPCZ in the late twentieth century is related to significant precipitation trends in the South Pacific region. Since 1998/99 the SPCZ has regressed westward with the negative phase change of the IPO. The long-term trend in the SPCZI is very small relative to the interannual to decadal variability and is not statistically significant, suggesting that there has been little overall change in the mean position of the SPCZ over the past century.},
author = {Salinger, M J and McGree, Simon and Beucher, Florent and Power, Scott B and Delage, Fran{\c{c}}ois},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-2035-y},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {881--892},
title = {{A new index for variations in the position of the South Pacific convergence zone 1910/11–2011/2012}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2035-y},
volume = {43},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Salzmann2016SciAdv,
abstract = {Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2{\%} per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7{\%} K-1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.},
annote = {Aerosol cooling has supressed the warming related radiative cooling explaining why global precipitation changes so far have been small},
author = {Salzmann, Marc},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1501572},
issn = {23752548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {e1501572},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science ({\{}AAAS{\}})},
title = {{Global warming without global mean precipitation increase'}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501572},
volume = {2},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Salzmann2014,
abstract = {The representation of aerosol processes and the skill in simulating the Asian summer monsoon vary widely across climate models. Yet, for the second half of the twentieth century, the models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) show a robust decrease of average precipitation in the South and Southeast Asian (SSEA) continental region due to the increase of anthropogenic aerosols. When taking into account anthropogenic aerosols as well as greenhouse gases (GHGs), the 15 CMIP5 models considered in this study yield an average June–September precipitation least squares linear trend of −0.20 ± 0.20 mm d−1 (50 years)−1 , or −2.9{\%}, for all land points in the SSEA region (taken from 75 to 120◦E and 5 to 30◦N) in the years from 1950 to 1999 (multimodel average ± one standard deviation) in spite of an increase in the water vapor path of +0.99 ± 0.65 kg m−2 (50 years)−1 (+2.5{\%}). This negative precipitation trend differs markedly from the positive precipitation trend of +0.29 ± 0.14 mm d−1 (50 years)−1, or +4.1{\%}, which is computed for GHG forcing only. Taking into account aerosols both decreases the water vapor path and slows down the monsoon circulation as suggested by several previous studies. At smaller scales, however, internal variability makes attributing observed precipitation changes to anthropogenic aerosols more difficult. Over Northern Central India (NCI), the spread between precipitation trends from individual model realizations is generally comparable in magnitude to simulated changes due to aerosols, and the model results suggest that the observed drying in NCI might in part be explained by internal variability.},
author = {Salzmann, M. and Weser, H. and Cherian, R.},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD021783},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {11321--11337},
title = {{Robust response of Asian summer monsoon to anthropogenic aerosols in CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD021783},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Samaniego2017,
abstract = {Recent climate change impact studies studies have presented conflicting results regarding the largest source of uncertainty in essential hydrological variables, especially streamflow and derived characteristics that describe the evolution of drought events. Part of the problem arises from the lack of a consistent framework to address compatible initial conditions for the impact models and a set of standardized historical and future forc- ings. The ISI-MIP2 project provides a good opportunity to advance our understanding of the propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to century-long time series of drought characteristics using an ensemble of hydrological model (HM) projections across a broad range of climate scenarios and regions. To achieve this goal, we used six regional preconditioned hydrological models set up in seven large river basins: Upper-Amazon, Blue-Nile, Ganges, Upper-Niger, Upper-Mississippi, Rhine, and Upper-Yellow. These mod- els were forced with bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two extreme representative concentration pathway scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the period 1971-2099. The simulated streamflow was transformed into a monthly runoff index (RI) to analyze the attributions of the GCM and HM uncertain- ties on to drought magnitudes and durations over time. The results indicated that GCM uncertainty mostly dominated over HM uncertainty for the projections of runoff drought characteristics, irrespective of the selected RCP and region. In general, the overall uncer- tainty increased with time. The uncertainty in the drought characteristics increased as the radiative forcing of the RCP increased, but the propagation of the GCM uncertainty on to a drought characteristic depended largely upon the hydro-climatic regime. Although our study emphasizes the need for multi-model ensembles for the assessment of future drought projections, the agreement between the GCM forcings was still too weak to draw conclusive recommendations.},
author = {Samaniego, L. and Kumar, R. and Breuer, L. and Chamorro, A. and Fl{\"{o}}rke, M. and Pechlivanidis, I. G. and Sch{\"{a}}fer, D. and Shah, H. and Vetter, T. and Wortmann, M. and Zeng, X.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1778-y},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {apr},
number = {3},
pages = {435--449},
title = {{Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins}},
volume = {141},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Samanta2019GRL,
abstract = {The double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias remains a persistent problem in coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations. Due to the strong sea surface temperature (SST)‐convection relationship in the tropics, precipitation biases are sensitive to background SST. Using historical simulations of 24 CGCMs and an atmospheric general circulation model, we show that cold equatorial SST biases at least exacerbate double ITCZ biases in the Pacific. A linear regression model is used to demonstrate that improved predictability of precipitation trends is possible with such model‐dependent information as mean‐state SST biases accompanying projected SST trends. These results provide a better understanding of the root of the double ITCZ bias and a possible path to reduced uncertainty in future tropical precipitation trends.},
annote = {Unrealistic double ITCZ with excessive precipitation south of the equator in CMIP5 models is linked to an overly strong equatorial cold tongue that reduces realism of future projections in the water cycle},
author = {Samanta, Dhrubajyoti and Karnauskas, Kristopher B. and Goodkin, Nathalie F.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081363},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate s,cold tongue SST,double  es trends,tropical Pacific},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {2242--2252},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Tropical Pacific SST and ITCZ Biases in Climate Models: Double Trouble for Future Rainfall Projections?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL081363 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081363},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2019GL086237,
abstract = {Abstract La Ni{\~{n}}a years tend to provide increased Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. However, observations show 6–8{\%} reduction in ISM rainfall during post-1980 La Ni{\~{n}}as relative to pre-1980. Using a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments, we replicate this observed phenomenon and attribute it to a combination of weakening La Ni{\~{n}}a events themselves plus strongly warming tropical Indian Ocean. We demonstrate that half of the ISM rainfall reduction during post-1980 La Ni{\~{n}}as can be attributed to changes in the spatial pattern and intensity of La Ni{\~{n}}a within the tropical Pacific Ocean. Warmer eastern-equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures during post-1980 La Ni{\~{n}}as weaken the Walker circulation, resulting in large-scale anomalous subsidence over the Indian subcontinent, thereby inhibiting the deep convection that drives ISM rainfall. Further, we demonstrate the declining central ISM rainfall during La Ni{\~{n}}a years with increasing tropical Indian Ocean warming, which has several serious concerns for regional water resources and stability.},
author = {Samanta, Dhrubajyoti and Rajagopalan, Balaji and Karnauskas, Kristopher B and Zhang, Lei and Goodkin, Nathalie F},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086237},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {AGCM,ISM rainfall,Indian Ocean warming,La Ni{\~{n}}a-ISM teleconnection,Walker circulation,tropical Pacific},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {e2019GL086237},
title = {{La Ni{\~{n}}a's Diminishing Fingerprint on the Central Indian Summer Monsoon}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL086237 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086237},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Samset2016GRL,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.},
annote = {fast atmospheric adjustments and slow precipitation responses to temperature change for a range of forcings and models; Black Carbon produces large regional fast responses and many land regions dominated by fast responses related to circulation},
author = {Samset, B. H. and Myhre, G. and Forster, P. M. and Hodnebrog and Andrews, T. and Faluvegi, G. and Fl{\"{i}}¿½schner, D. and Kasoar, M. and Kharin, V. and Kirkev{\"{i}}¿½g, A. and Lamarque, J. F. and Olivi{\"{i}}¿½, D. and Richardson, T. and Shindell, D. and Shine, K. P. and Takemura, T. and Voulgarakis, A.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL068064},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {PDRMIP,climate drivers},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2782--2791},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl068064},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Samset2018a,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2018. The Authors. Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6{\%}. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.},
author = {Samset, B. H. and Sand, M. and Smith, C. J. and Bauer, S. E. and Forster, P. M. and Fuglestvedt, J. S. and Osprey, S. and Schleussner, C. F.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076079},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {s,black carbon,climate change,extreme weather,organic carbon,sulfate},
number = {2},
pages = {1020--1029},
title = {{Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions}},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Samset2017,
abstract = {We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2–3{\%} per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3–5{\%}/K, while the slow land HS is only 0–2{\%}/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator. Global warming leads to more rain – but little of the change occurs over land. An international team of researchers, led by Bj{\o}rn H. Samset at the Norwegian CICERO Center for Climate Research, used ten global climate models to study how precipitation changes when just one factor in the climate system was allowed to change at a time. While models tend to give very different predictions of future rainfall for realistic scenarios, changes due solely to greenhouse gases, aerosols, or the amount of incoming sunlight, give clearer results. Overall, the amount of rain over oceans increases by 4{\%} per degree Celsius, no matter what caused the surface warming. Over land, the increase is only 1–2{\%}. This difference helps explain why observed rainfall changes over land have so far been modest.},
annote = {Hydrological sensitivity to slow temperature responses is suppressed over land (0-2{\%}/oC) relative to the global mean, in particularly over subtropical regions due to tropical expansion and for Black Carbon aerosol radiative forcing},
author = {Samset, B. H. and Myhre, G. and Forster, P. M. and Hodnebrog, {\O}. and Andrews, T. and Boucher, O. and Faluvegi, G. and Fl{\"{a}}schner, D. and Kasoar, M. and Kharin, V. and Kirkev{\aa}g, A. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Olivi{\'{e}}, D. and Richardson, T. B. and Shindell, D. and Takemura, T. and Voulgarakis, A.},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-017-0005-5},
isbn = {4161201700055},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
number = {1},
pages = {3},
pmid = {22286332},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-017-0005-5},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sanap2015,
abstract = {The Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP), which hosts 1/7th of the world population, has undergone significant anomalous changes in hydrological cycle in recent decades. In present study, the role of aerosols in the precipitation changes over IGP region is investigated using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-5 (CMIP5) experiments with adequate representation of aerosols in state-of-the art climate models. The climatological sea surface temperature experiments are used to explore the relative impact of the aerosols. The diagnostic analysis on representation of aerosols and precipitation over Indian region was investigated in CMIP5 models. After the evaluation, multi-model ensemble was used for further analysis. It is revealed from the analysis that aerosol-forcing plays an important role in observed weakening of the monsoon circulation and decreased precipitation over the IGP region. The significant cooling of the continental Indian region (mainly IGP) caused by the aerosols leads to reduction in land sea temperature contrast, which further leads to weakening of monsoon overturning circulation and reduction in precipitation.},
author = {Sanap, S. D. and Pandithurai, G. and Manoj, M. G.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2516-2},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Aerosol effects,Aerosol monsoon interactions,CMIP-5 experiment,IGP rainfall},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2949--2961},
title = {{On the response of Indian summer monsoon to aerosol forcing in CMIP5 model simulations}},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Sand2020,
abstract = {Abstract Black carbon (BC) aerosols influence precipitation through a range of processes. The climate response to the presence of BC is however highly dependent on its vertical distribution. Here, we analyze the changes in the energy budget and precipitation impacts of adding a layer of BC at a range of altitudes in two independent global climate models. The models are run with atmosphere-only and slab ocean model setup to analyze both fast and slow responses, respectively. Globally, precipitation changes are tightly coupled to the energy budget. We decompose the precipitation change into contributions from absorption of solar radiation, atmospheric longwave radiative cooling, and sensible heat flux at the surface. We find that for atmosphere-only simulations, BC rapidly suppresses precipitation, independent of altitude, mainly because of strong atmospheric absorption. This reduction is offset by increased atmospheric radiative longwave cooling and reduced sensible heat flux at the surface, but not of sufficient magnitude to prevent reduced precipitation. On longer timescales, when the surface temperature is allowed to respond, we find that the precipitation increase associated with surface warming can compensate for the initial reduction, particularly for BC in the lower atmosphere. Even though the underlying processes are strikingly similar in the two models, the resulting change in precipitation and temperature by BC differ quite substantially.},
author = {Sand, M and Samset, B H and Tsigaridis, K and Bauer, S E and Myhre, G},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD032239},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {black carbon s,energy budget,precipitation,rapid adjustments},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {e2019JD032239},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Black Carbon and Precipitation: An Energetics Perspective}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032239},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sandeep2015,
author = {Sandeep, S. and Ajayamohan, R. S.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2261-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {337--351},
title = {{Poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon low level jetstream under global warming}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2261-y},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Sandeep2018,
author = {Sandeep, S. and Ajayamohan, R. S. and Boos, William R. and Sabin, T. P. and Praveen, V.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1709031115},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {11},
pages = {2681--2686},
title = {{Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1709031115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sandeep2018a,
author = {Sandeep, S. and Ajayamohan, R. S.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027263},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {198--210},
title = {{Modulation of Winter Precipitation Dynamics Over the Arabian Gulf by ENSO}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017JD027263},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sandeep2020,
abstract = {Observational records and climate model projections reveal a considerable decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Changes in the AMOC can have a significant impact on the global climate. Sustained warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions is projected to weaken the AMOC, which in turn can lead to changes in the loca-tion of Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), oceanic and atmospheric large-scale circulation, tropical precipitation and regional monsoons. Using proxy records, observations and CMIP6 simulations of IITM Earth System Model (IITM-ESM), we investigate the changes in the AMOC and associated changes in the large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns over the South Asian monsoon region. Transient CO2 simulation and additional model sensitivity experiments with real-istic surface heat and freshwater perturbation anomalies under the experimental protocol of Flux Anomaly Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) performed with IITM-ESM reveal a decline in the strength of AMOC. The weakening of AMOC is associated with enhanced heat and freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic resulting in the reduction of north-ward oceanic heat transport and an enhanced northward atmospheric heat transport. Changes in AMOC lead to weakening of large-scale north–south temperature gradient and regional land-sea thermal gradient, which in turn weaken the regional Hadley circulation and, monsoon circulation over the South Asian region. Both the FAFMIP and transient CO2 experiments reveal consistent results of weakening South Asian Monsoon circulation with a decline of AMOC, while precipitation exhibits contrasting responses as precipitation changes are dominated by the thermodynamic response. The suite of observational and numerical analysis provides a mechanistic hypothesis for the weakening of South Asian monsoon circulation concomitant with a weakening of AMOC in a warming climate.},
author = {Sandeep, N. and Swapna, P. and Krishnan, R. and Farneti, R. and Prajeesh, A. G. and Ayantika, D. C. and Manmeet, S.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05180-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {3507--3524},
title = {{South Asian monsoon response to weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05180-y},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sandeep2014,
abstract = {There is still considerable uncertainty con-cerning twentieth century trends in the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). In this paper, observational datasets, coupled (CMIP5) and uncoupled (AGCM) model simula-tions, and additional numerical sensitivity experiments are analyzed to investigate twentieth century changes in the PWC and their physical mechanisms. The PWC weakens over the century in the CMIP5 simulations, but strengthens in the AGCM simulations and also in the observational twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) dataset. It is argued that the weakening in the CMIP5 simulations is not a consequence of a reduced global convective mass flux expected from simple considerations of the global hydro-logical response to global warming, but is rather due to a weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. Further clarification is provided by additional uncoupled atmospheric general circulation model simulations in which the ENSO-unre-lated and ENSO-related portions of the observed SST changes are prescribed as lower boundary conditions. Both sets of SST forcing fields have a global warming trend, and both sets of simulations produce a weakening of the global convective mass flux. However, consistent with the strong role of the zonal SST gradient, the PWC strengthens in the simulations with the ENSO-unrelated SST forcing, which has a strengthening zonal SST gradient, despite the weakening of the global convective mass flux. Overall, our results suggest that the PWC strengthened during twentieth century global warming, but also that this strengthening was partly masked by a weakening trend associated with ENSO-related PWC variability.},
author = {Sandeep, S. and Stordal, Frode and Sardeshmukh, Prashant D. and Compo, Gilbert P.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2135-3},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Hydrological cycle,Pacific Walker Circulation},
number = {1-2},
pages = {103--117},
title = {{Pacific Walker Circulation variability in coupled and uncoupled climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2135-3},
volume = {43},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Sandler2020,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Abstract. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is expected to change considerably in the upcoming decades, and with it the interaction between Rossby waves and the jet stream. A common feature of midlatitude wintertime variability is upper-tropospheric quasi-stationary number 5 wave packets, which often propagate zonally along the jet. These are collectively referred to as the circumglobal teleconnection pattern (CTP). Their likeness seemingly emerges as a robust signal in future meridional wind trend projections in the Northern Hemisphere, which take the form of a zonal wave encompassing the midlatitudes. We attempt to elucidate this link across timescales (daily, monthly, and climatological), focusing on wave propagation in the jet waveguide in reanalysis and a 36-member ensemble of CMIP5 models. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on 300 hPa subseasonal V anomalies, we first establish the ensemble's skill in capturing the pattern. Then, by investigating EOF phase space, we characterize the CTP's behavior in present-day climatology and how it is projected to change. Under RCP8.5 forcing, most models develop a gradual preference for monthly-mean waves with certain longitudinal phases. The ensemble is thus divided into subgroups based on region of increased wave activity. For each model, this region corresponds to a more pronounced local trend, which helps explain the ensemble projection spread. Additionally, in two test-case models, this coincides with an increasing number of preferably phased wave packets at the synoptic scale. Some signs suggest that differences in CTP dynamics might stem from mean flow interaction, while no evidence was found for the role of tropical diabatic forcing. Thus, we conclude that this climate change response, seemingly a single large-scale wave, is actually comprised of several regional effects which are related to shifts in CTP phase distributions. The strong dynamical disagreement in the ensemble then manifests as significantly different circulation trends, which in turn might affect projected local temperature and precipitation patterns.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Sandler, Dor and Harnik, Nili},
doi = {10.5194/wcd-1-427-2020},
issn = {2698-4016},
journal = {Weather and Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {2},
pages = {427--443},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Future wintertime meridional wind trends through the lens of subseasonal teleconnections}},
url = {https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/427/2020/},
volume = {1},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sandvik2018,
abstract = {Using high resolution convective permitting simulations, we have investigated the sensitivity of historical orographically enhanced extreme precipitation events to idealized temperature perturbations. Our simulations were typical autumn and winter synoptic scale extreme precipitation events on the west coast of Norway. The response in daily mean precipitation was around 5{\{}{\%}{\}}/K for a 2{\{}$\backslash$thinspace{\}}{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C temperature perturbation with a clear topographical pattern. Low lying coastal regions experienced relative changes that were only about 1/3 of the changes at higher elevations. The largest changes were seen in the highest elevations of the near coastal mountain regions where the change was in order of +7.5{\{}{\%}{\}}/K. With a response around 5{\{}{\%}{\}}/K, our simulations had a precipitation response that was around 2{\{}{\%}{\}}/K lower than Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and 3{\{}{\%}{\}}/K lower than the water vapor change. The below Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in precipitation could not be explained by changes in vertical velocities, stability or relative humidity. We suggest that the lower response in precipitation is a result of a shift from the more efficient ice-phase precipitation growth to less effective rain production in a warmer atmosphere. A considerable change in precipitation phase was seen with a mean increase in rainfall of 16{\{}{\%}{\}}/K which was partly compensated by a reduction in snowfall of around 23{\{}{\%}{\}}/K. This change may have serious implications for flooding and geohazards.},
author = {Sandvik, Mari Ingeborg and Sorteberg, Asgeir and Rasmussen, Roy},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3593-1},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate sensitivity experiments,Extreme precipitation,Norway,Regional modeling,WRF},
number = {1-2},
pages = {143--157},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Sensitivity of historical orographically enhanced extreme precipitation events to idealized temperature perturbations}},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sanogo2015,
author = {Sanogo, Souleymane and Fink, Andreas H. and Omotosho, Jerome A. and Ba, Abdramane and Redl, Robert and Ermert, Volker},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4309},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {ETCCDI climate extreme indices,West Africa,empirical orthogonal function,onset and retreat dates,rainfall intensity,rainfall recovery,trend analysis},
month = {dec},
number = {15},
pages = {4589--4605},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Spatio-temporal characteristics of the recent rainfall recovery in West Africa}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4309},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{sdfftbegghrw18,
abstract = {Land–atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a main driver of Earth's surface water and energy budgets; as such, they modulate near-surface climate, including clouds and precipitation, and can influence the persistence of extremes such as drought. Despite their importance, the representation of L-A interactions in weather and climate models remains poorly constrained, as they involve a complex set of processes that are difficult to observe in nature. In addition, a complete understanding of L-A processes requires interdisciplinary expertise and approaches that transcend traditional research paradigms and communities. To address these issues, the international Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (GEWEX) Global Land–Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel has supported “L-A coupling” as one of its core themes for well over a decade. Under this initiative, several successful land surface and global climate modeling projects have identified hot spots of L-A coupling and helped quantify the role of land surface states in weather and climate predictability. GLASS formed the Local Land–Atmosphere Coupling (LoCo) project and working group to examine L-A interactions at the process level, focusing on understanding and quantifying these processes in nature and evaluating them in models. LoCo has produced an array of L-A coupling metrics for different applications and scales and has motivated a growing number of young scientists from around the world. This article provides an overview of the LoCo effort, including metric and model applications, along with scientific and programmatic developments and challenges.},
author = {Santanello, Joseph A and Dirmeyer, Paul A and Ferguson, Craig R and Findell, Kirsten L and Tawfik, Ahmed B and Berg, Alexis and Ek, Michael and Gentine, Pierre and Guillod, Benoit P and van Heerwaarden, Chiel and Roundy, Joshua and Wulfmeyer, Volker},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0001.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1253--1272},
title = {{Land–Atmosphere Interactions: The LoCo Perspective}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0001.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/6/bams-d-17-0001.1.xml},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Santer1990,
abstract = {The focus of this study is the control run performance of four general circulation models (GCMs): the Oregon State University (OSU) two-layer atmospheric GCM (AGCM), the OSU coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CGCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) nine-layer AGCM, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) T21 model. The analysis variable is monthly mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and model validation is performed for a limited domain (North America/Atlantic/Europe). The first part of the investigation deals with the magnitude and gross spatial structure of model errors in means and interannual variability (for January and July only). These errors are examined with the aid of maps of time-mean MSLP, difference fields, and local variance ratios. The significance of the local (grid point by grid point) differences in means and variances is then determined by performing univariate t- and F-tests. This information on the spatial structure of large-scale systematic errors is important for understanding the results of significance tests performed on the overall fields. In the second part of the investigation, the statistics recommended by Wigley and Santer (this issue) for use in model validation are applied to test the overall significance of observed/simulated differences in means, variances, and spatial patterns over the entire annual cycle. Significance levels are determined with the pool permutation procedure (PPP) introduced by Preisendorfer and Barnett (1983). Results indicate that all four models have highly significant errors in the mean field and spatial pattern over the entire annual cycle. Errors in the temporal variance are generally less significant, and significance levels for variance tests can depend critically on the choice of averaging period for observed validation data. The actual test statistic values show that there are considerable differences in model performance. The ECMWF T21 model simulates the spatial pattern and time-mean MSLP field with greater fidelity than the other models considered here.},
author = {Santer, B. D. and Wigley, T. M. L.},
doi = {10.1029/JD095iD01p00829},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {D1},
pages = {829},
title = {{Regional validation of means, variances, and spatial patterns in general circulation model control runs}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/JD095iD01p00829},
volume = {95},
year = {1990}
}
@article{Santolaria-Otin2020,
abstract = {Spatial and temporal patterns of snow cover extent (SCE) and snow water equivalent (SWE) over the terrestrial Arctic are analyzed based on multiple observational datasets and an ensemble of CMIP5 models during 1979–2005. For evaluation of historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, we used two reanalysis products, one satellite-observed product and an ensemble of different datasets. The CMIP5 models tend to significantly underestimate the observed SCE in spring but are in better agreement with observations in autumn; overall, the observed annual SCE cycle is well captured by the CMIP5 ensemble. In contrast, for SWE, the annual cycle is significantly biased, especially over North America, where some models retain snow even in summer, in disagreement with observations. The snow margin position (SMP) in the CMIP5 historical simulations is in better agreement with observations in spring than in autumn, when close agreement across the CMIP5 models is only found in central Siberia. Historical experiments from most CMIP5 models show negative pan-Arctic trends in SCE and SWE. These trends are, however, considerably weaker (and less statistically significant) than those reported from observations. Most CMIP5 models can more accurately capture the trend pattern of SCE than that of SWE, which shows quantitative and qualitative differences with the observed trends over Eurasia. Our results demonstrate the importance of using multiple data sources for the evaluation of snow characteristics in climate models. Further developments should focus on the improvement of both dataset quality and snow representation in climate models, especially ESM-SnowMIP.},
author = {Santolaria-Ot{\'{i}}n, Mar{\'{i}}a and Zolina, Olga},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05434-9},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {11},
pages = {2993--3016},
title = {{Evaluation of snow cover and snow water equivalent in the continental Arctic in CMIP5 models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05434-9},
volume = {55},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sarangi2018,
abstract = {Coupling of urban land use land cover (LULC) and aerosol loading on rainfall around cities in the Gangetic Basin (GB) is examined here. Long-term observations illustrate more rainfall at urban core and climatological downwind regions compared to the upwind regions of Kanpur, a metropolitan area located in central GB. In addition, analysis of a 15 day cloud resolving simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model also illustrated similar rainfall pattern around other major cities in the GB. Interestingly, the enhancement of downwind rainfall was greater than that over urban regions, and it was positively associated with both the urban area of the city and ambient aerosol loading during the propagating storm. Further, to gain a process-level understanding, a typical storm that propagated northwestward across Kanpur was simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting under three different scenarios. Case 1 has realistic LULC representation of Kanpur, while the grids representing the Kanpur urban region were replaced by cropland LULC pattern in Case 2. Comparison illustrated that urban heat island effect caused convergence of winds and moisture in the lower troposphere, which enhances convection over urban region and induced more rainfall over the urban core compared to upwind regions. Case 3 is similar to Case 1 but lower aerosol concentration (by a factor of 100) over the storm region. Analysis shows that aerosol-induced microphysical changes delay the initiation of warm rain (over the upwind region) but enhance ice phase particle formation in latter stages (over the urban and downwind regions) resulting in increase in downwind rainfall.},
author = {Sarangi, Chandan and Tripathi, S. N. and Qian, Yun and Kumar, Shailendra and {Ruby Leung}, L.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD028004},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Gangetic Basin,aerosol,cloud invigoration,microphysics,rainfall,urban land use},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3645--3667},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Aerosol and Urban Land Use Effect on Rainfall Around Cities in Indo-Gangetic Basin From Observations and Cloud Resolving Model Simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017JD028004},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sarangi2017,
abstract = {Abstract. Monsoonal rainfall is the primary source of surface water in India. Using 12 years of in situ and satellite observations, we examined the association of aerosol loading with cloud fraction, cloud top pressure, cloud top temperature, and daily surface rainfall over the Indian summer monsoon region (ISMR). Our results showed positive correlations between aerosol loading and cloud properties as well as rainfall. A decrease in outgoing longwave radiation and an increase in reflected shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere with an increase in aerosol loading further indicates a possible seminal role of aerosols in the deepening of cloud systems. Significant perturbation in liquid- and ice-phase microphysics was also evident over the ISMR. For the polluted cases, delay in the onset of collision–coalescence processes and an enhancement in the condensation efficiency allows for more condensate mass to be lifted up to the mixed colder phases. This results in the higher mass concentration of larger-sized ice-phase hydrometeors and, therefore, implies that the delayed rain processes eventually lead to more surface rainfall. A numerical simulation of a typical rainfall event case over the ISMR using a spectral bin microphysical scheme coupled with the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF-SBM) model was also performed. Simulated microphysics also illustrated that the initial suppression of warm rain coupled with an increase in updraft velocity under high aerosol loading leads to enhanced super-cooled liquid droplets above freezing level and ice-phase hydrometeors, resulting in increased accumulated surface rainfall. Thus, both observational and numerical analysis suggest that high aerosol loading may induce cloud invigoration, thereby increasing surface rainfall over the ISMR. While the meteorological variability influences the strength of the observed positive association, our results suggest that the persistent aerosol-associated deepening of cloud systems and an intensification of surface rain amounts was applicable to all the meteorological sub-regimes over the ISMR. Hence, we believe that these results provide a step forward in our ability to address aerosol–cloud–rainfall associations based on satellite observations over the ISMR.},
author = {Sarangi, Chandan and Tripathi, Sachchida Nand and Kanawade, Vijay P and Koren, Ilan and Pai, D Sivanand},
doi = {10.5194/acp-17-5185-2017},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {5185--5204},
title = {{Investigation of the aerosol–cloud–rainfall association over the Indian summer monsoon region}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/17/5185/2017/},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sarojini2016,
abstract = {Understanding how human influence on the climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipita- tion is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider new ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations.},
author = {Sarojini, Beena Balan and Stott, Peter A. and Black, Emily},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2976},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {669--675},
title = {{Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2976},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Saunois,
abstract = {Abstract. The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (∼ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 540–568. About 60 {\%} of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50–65 {\%}). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 596–884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 64 {\%} of the global budget,},
author = {Saunois, Marielle and Bousquet, Philippe and Poulter, Ben and Peregon, Anna and Ciais, Philippe and Canadell, Josep G and Dlugokencky, Edward J. and Etiope, Giuseppe and Bastviken, David and Houweling, Sander and Janssens-Maenhout, Greet and Tubiello, Francesco N. and Castaldi, Simona and Jackson, Robert B. and Alexe, Mihai and Arora, Vivek K. and Beerling, David J. and Bergamaschi, Peter and Blake, Donald R. and Brailsford, Gordon and Brovkin, Victor and Bruhwiler, Lori and Crevoisier, Cyril and Crill, Patrick and Covey, Kristofer and Curry, Charles and Frankenberg, Christian and Gedney, Nicola and H{\"{o}}glund-Isaksson, Lena and Ishizawa, Misa and Ito, Akihiko and Joos, Fortunat and Kim, Heon-Sook and Kleinen, Thomas and Krummel, Paul and Lamarque, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Langenfelds, Ray and Locatelli, Robin and Machida, Toshinobu and Maksyutov, Shamil and McDonald, Kyle C. and Marshall, Julia and Melton, Joe R. and Morino, Isamu and Naik, Vaishali and O'Doherty, Simon and Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. and Patra, Prabir K. and Peng, Changhui and Peng, Shushi and Peters, Glen P. and Pison, Isabelle and Prigent, Catherine and Prinn, Ronald and Ramonet, Michel and Riley, William J. and Saito, Makoto and Santini, Monia and Schroeder, Ronny and Simpson, Isobel J. and Spahni, Renato and Steele, Paul and Takizawa, Atsushi and Thornton, Brett F. and Tian, Hanqin and Tohjima, Yasunori and Viovy, Nicolas and Voulgarakis, Apostolos and van Weele, Michiel and van der Werf, Guido R. and Weiss, Ray and Wiedinmyer, Christine and Wilton, David J. and Wiltshire, Andy and Worthy, Doug and Wunch, Debra and Xu, Xiyan and Yoshida, Yukio and Zhang, Bowen and Zhang, Zhen and Zhu, Qiuan},
doi = {10.5194/essd-8-697-2016},
issn = {1866-3516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {dec},
number = {2},
pages = {697--751},
title = {{The global methane budget 2000–2012}},
url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/8/697/2016/},
volume = {8},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Saurral2017a,
abstract = {Southern South America (SSA), considered as the continental region south of 20°S, has experienced significant precipitation variability and trends in the last decades. This article uses monthly quality-controlled precipitation data from rainfall stations with continuous observations during at least 100 years to quantify long-term trends as well as interannual-to-centennial variability. Several statistical methods are applied to the data, primarily to detect jumps and look for changes due to relocation of the gauge stations, as well as to identify significant trends. Most of the regions have registered an increase in annual rainfall, largely attributable to changes in the warm season. On the other hand, during winter most stations in Argentina and Brazil do not have significant trends, although eastern Patagonia registered an increase in precipitation and Chile, a marked decrease in rainfall. In order to look into the physical mechanisms behind the observed variability, the changes in mean sea level pressure and precipitable water are quantified for different sub-periods. Also explored is the variability related to the Hadley cell width and strength over the region around SSA. Results show that the Hadley cell has shrunk and shifted towards the equator in winter over the area, which has caused an enhancement of the sinking motion over much of Argentina, Chile and Brazil, while likely increasing the baroclinicity (and associated precipitation) over Patagonia. In summer, the strength of the subsidence decreased and this was associated with an increase of the low-level moisture advection, favouring more rainfall. The observational evidence presented here suggests that the zonal asymmetry in the change of the Hadley cell position over SSA could be linked to the presence of the Andes Cordillera.},
author = {Saurral, Ramiro I. and Camilloni, Ines In{\'{e}}s A. and Barros, Vicente R.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4810},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Hadley cell,precipitation,southern South America,trends and variability},
number = {July 2016},
pages = {1774--1793},
title = {{Low-frequency variability and trends in centennial precipitation stations in southern South America}},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Scaff2020,
author = {Scaff, Lucia and Prein, Andreas F and Li, Yanping and Liu, Changhai and Rasmussen, Roy and Ikeda, Kyoko},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04754-9},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate change,Convection-permitting modeling,North America,Precipitation diurnal cycle,Pseudo global warming approach,Weather Research and Forecasting model,climate change-permitting modeling,forecasting model,north america,precipitation diurnal cycle,pseudo global warming approach,weather research and},
number = {1},
pages = {369--382},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Simulating the convective precipitation diurnal cycle in North America's current and future climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04754-9},
volume = {55},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Scanlon2018,
abstract = {Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60{\%} of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km 3 /y) and increasing (≥0.5 km 3 /y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km 3 /y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km 3 /y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km 3 /y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km 3 /y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated.},
author = {Scanlon, Bridget R. and Zhang, Zizhan and Save, Himanshu and Sun, Alexander Y. and {M{\"{u}}ller Schmied}, Hannes and van Beek, Ludovicus P. H. and Wiese, David N. and Wada, Yoshihide and Long, Di and Reedy, Robert C. and Longuevergne, Laurent and D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and Bierkens, Marc F. P.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1704665115},
isbn = {0027-8424},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {6},
pages = {E1080--E1089},
pmid = {29358394},
title = {{Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1704665115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Scanlon2019,
abstract = {Seasonal water storage fluctuations are critical for evaluating water scarcity linked to climate forcing and human intervention. Here we compare seasonal changes in land total water storage anomalies using seven global hydrologic and land surface models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and five GLDAS models) to GRACE satellite data in 183 river basins globally. This work builds on previous analysis that focused on total water storage anomaly trends. Results show that most models underestimate seasonal water storage amplitudes in tropical and (semi)arid basins and land surface models generally overestimate amplitudes in northern basins. Some models (CLM-5.0 and PCR-GLOBWB) agree better with GRACE than others. Causes of model-GRACE discrepancies are attributed to missing storage compartments (e.g., surface water and/or groundwater) and underestimation of modeled storage capacities in tropical basins and to variations in modeled fluxes in northern basins. This study underscores the importance of considering water storage, in addition to water fluxes, to improve global models.},
author = {Scanlon, B.R. and Zhang, Z. and Rateb, A. and Sun, A. and Wiese, D. and Save, H. and Beaudoing, H. and Lo, M.H. H. and M{\"{u}}ller-Schmied, H. and D{\"{o}}ll, P. and van Beek, R. and Swenson, S. and Lawrence, D. and Croteau, M. and Reedy, R.C. C. and M{\"{u}}ller‐Schmied, H. and D{\"{o}}ll, P. and Beek, R. and Swenson, S. and Lawrence, D. and Croteau, M. and Reedy, R.C. C. and M{\"{u}}ller-Schmied, H. and D{\"{o}}ll, P. and van Beek, R. and Swenson, S. and Lawrence, D. and Croteau, M. and Reedy, R.C. C.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081836},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {GRACE,GRACE satellite data,Global Seasonal water storage,global hydrologic global land surface satellite data,seasonal water storage},
month = {apr},
number = {10},
pages = {5254--5264},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Tracking Seasonal Fluctuations in Land Water Storage Using Global Models and GRACE Satellites}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081836},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Scanlon2012,
abstract = {Aquifer overexploitation could significantly impact crop production in the United States because 60{\%} of irrigation relies on groundwater. Groundwater depletion in the irrigated High Plains and California Central Valley accounts for {\~{}}50{\%} of groundwater depletion in the United States since 1900. A newly developed High Plains recharge map shows that high recharge in the northern High Plains results in sustainable pumpage, whereas lower recharge in the central and southern High Plains has resulted in focused depletion of 330 km(3) of fossil groundwater, mostly recharged during the past 13,000 y. Depletion is highly localized with about a third of depletion occurring in 4{\%} of the High Plains land area. Extrapolation of the current depletion rate suggests that 35{\%} of the southern High Plains will be unable to support irrigation within the next 30 y. Reducing irrigation withdrawals could extend the lifespan of the aquifer but would not result in sustainable management of this fossil groundwater. The Central Valley is a more dynamic, engineered system, with north/south diversions of surface water since the 1950s contributing to {\~{}}7× higher recharge. However, these diversions are regulated because of impacts on endangered species. A newly developed Central Valley Hydrologic Model shows that groundwater depletion since the 1960s, totaling 80 km(3), occurs mostly in the south (Tulare Basin) and primarily during droughts. Increasing water storage through artificial recharge of excess surface water in aquifers by up to 3 km(3) shows promise for coping with droughts and improving sustainability of groundwater resources in the Central Valley.},
author = {Scanlon, Bridget R and Faunt, Claudia C and Longuevergne, Laurent and Reedy, Robert C and Alley, William M and McGuire, Virginia L and McMahon, Peter B},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1200311109},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {jun},
number = {24},
pages = {9320--9325},
pmid = {22645352},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1200311109},
volume = {109},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Scheff2012,
abstract = {Robust subtropical precipitation declines have been a prominent feature of general circulation model (GCM) responses to future greenhouse warming. Recent work by the authors showed that for the models making up the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3), this drying was found mainly in the midlatitude-driven pre- cipitation poleward of the model subtropical precipitation minima. Here, using more comprehensive diagnostics, we extend that work to 36 new CMIP5 models, and find that CMIP5 robust precipitation declines are also found mainly between subtropical minima and midlatitude precipitation maxima, implicating dynamic poleward expansion of dry zones rather than thermodynamic amplification of dry-wet contrasts. We also give the full seasonal cycle of these pro- jected declines, showing that they are much more wide- spread in local spring than in local fall, and that for most of the year in the Northern Hemisphere they are entirely con- fined to the Atlantic side of the globe.},
annote = {robust precipitation declines are also found mainly between subtropical minima and midlatitude precipitation maxima, implicating dynamic poleward expansion of dry zones rather than thermodynamic amplification of dry-wet contrasts.},
author = {Scheff, Jack and Frierson, Dargan M W},
doi = {10.1029/2012GL052910},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {L18704},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Robust future precipitation declines in CMIP5 largely reflect the poleward expansion of model subtropical dry zones}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl052910},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Scheff2015,
abstract = {AbstractThe aridity of a terrestrial climate is often quantified using the dimensionless ratio of annual precipitation (P) to annual potential evapotranspiration (PET). In this study, the climatological patterns and greenhouse warming responses of terrestrial P, Penman?Monteith PET, and are compared among 16 modern global climate models. The large-scale climatological values and implied biome types often disagree widely among models, with large systematic differences from observational estimates. In addition, the PET climatologies often differ by several tens of percent when computed using monthly versus 3-hourly inputs.With greenhouse warming, land P does not systematically increase or decrease, except at high latitudes. Therefore, because of moderate, ubiquitous PET increases, decreases (drying) are much more widespread than increases (wetting) in the tropics, subtropics, and midlatitudes in most models, confirming and expanding on earlier findings. The PET increases are also somewhat sensitive to the time resolution of the inputs, although not as systematically as for the PET climatologies.The changes in the balance between P and PET are also quantified using an alternative aridity index, the ratio , which has a one-to-one but nonlinear correspondence with . It is argued that the magnitudes of changes are more uniformly relevant than the magnitudes of changes, which tend to be much higher in wetter regions. The ratio and its changes are also found to be excellent statistical predictors of the land surface evaporative fraction and its changes.},
author = {Scheff, Jacob and Frierson, Dargan M.W.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00480.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Anthropogenic effects,Climate change,Evapotranspiration,General circulation Hydrology,Precipitation},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {5583--5600},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Terrestrial aridity and its response to greenhouse warming across CMIP5 climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00480.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Scheff2014,
abstract = {Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a ter- restrial climate—of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and ‘‘business as usual'' future Penman–Monteith PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 13 modern global climate models. The percentage change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET percentage change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor deficit and increasing Clausius–Clapeyron slope). This direct-warming term accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times5{\%}–6{\%}8C21 (related to the Clausius–Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the intermodel spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed changes, which make smaller yet sub- stantial contributions to the full PET percentage change fields.},
author = {Scheff, Jacob and Frierson, Dargan M W},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00233.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {4},
pages = {1539--1558},
title = {{Scaling potential evapotranspiration with greenhouse warming}},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Scheff2017a,
abstract = {Past cold climates are often thought to have been “drier” than today on land, which appears to conflict with recent studies projecting widespread terrestrial drying with near-future warming. However, other work has found that over large portions of the continents, the conclusion of future “drying” vs. “wet- ting” strongly depends on the physical property of interest. Here, we show that this also holds in simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum: the conti- nents have generally wetter topsoils and higher values of standard climate- wetness metrics than in the preindustrial, as well as generally lower precipi- tation and ubiquitously lower photosynthesis (likely driven by the low CO2), with streamflow responses falling in between. Using a large existing global pollen and plant-fossil compilation, we also confirm that LGM grasslands and open woodlands grew at many sites of present-day forest, seasonal forests at many sites of present-day rainforest, and so forth, while changes in the opposite sense were few and spatially con- fined. These vegetation changes resemble the model photosynthesis responses but not the hydroclimate responses, while published lake-level changes resem- ble the latter but not the former. Thus, confidence in both the model hydro- logic and photosynthesis projections is increased, and there is no significant conflict. Instead, paleo- and modern climate researchers must carefully de- fine “wetting” and “drying,” and in particular should not assume hydrologic drying on the basis of vegetation decline, or vegetation stress on the basis of declines in hydroclimatic indicators.},
author = {Scheff, Jacob and Seager, Richard and Liu, Haibo and Coats, Sloan},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0854.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,General circulation models,Hydrologic cycle,Land surface,Paleoclimate,Vegetation},
number = {17},
pages = {6593--6609},
title = {{Are glacials dry? Consequences for paleoclimatology and for greenhouse warming}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Schemm2018,
abstract = {For nearly a century, the study of atmospheric dynamics in the midlatitudes has presented dichotomic perspectives on one of its focal points: the birth and life cycle of cyclones. In particular, the role of fronts has driven much of the historical discourse on cyclogenesis. In the 1910s–20s, the Bergen School of Meteorology postulated that cyclogenesis occurs on a preexisting front. This concept was later replaced by the baroclinic instability paradigm, which describes the development of a surface front as a consequence of the growing cyclone rather than its cause. However, there is ample observational evidence for cyclogenesis on well-marked fronts (frontal-wave cyclones) as well as for cyclogenesis in the absence of fronts in broader baroclinic zones. Thus, after a century of research on the link between extratropical cyclones and fronts, this study has the objective of climatologically quantifying their relationship. By combining identification schemes for cyclones and fronts, the fraction of cyclones with attendant fronts is quantified at all times during the cyclones' life cycle. The storm-track regions over the North Atlantic are dominated by cyclones that form on preexisting fronts. Over the North Pacific, the result more strongly depends on the front definition. Cyclones that acquire their fronts during the life cycle dominate over the continents and in the Mediterranean. Further, cyclones that develop attendant fronts during their life cycle typically do so around the time they attain maximum intensity. At the time of cyclolysis, at least 40{\%} of all cyclones are still associated with a front. The number of occluded fronts at lysis has not been considered.},
author = {Schemm, Sebastian and Sprenger, Michael and Wernli, Heini},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0261.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {149--165},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{When during Their Life Cycle Are Extratropical Cyclones Attended by Fronts?}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0261.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Schemm2018a,
abstract = {Abstract In contrast to Arctic sea ice extent, Antarctic sea ice extent has increased since 1979. On a regional scale, however, the trends exhibit high spatial variability and are even of the opposite sign. This study examines connections between sea ice extent and the frequencies of extratropical cyclones and blocks. Consideration is given to regions that exhibit long-term sea ice trends during spring and autumn. Significant connections exist in almost all examined regions. Typically, the region of maximum correlation is shifted upstream or downstream of the sea ice target region, which indicates that the 10-m wind associated with the examined weather systems is the chief thermodynamic and dynamic agent underlying sea ice variability. Along the ice edge of the Weddell and Ross Seas, the correlation between springtime sea ice extent and cyclone frequencies displays a wave number 3 pattern. Eastward of the Ross Sea, along the transition into the Amundsen Sea, spring sea ice extent is connected to cyclone and blocking frequencies during spring and the preceding autumn. Westward of the Ross Sea, autumn sea ice extent is strongly connected to blocking frequencies during the preceding spring. For the Bellingshausen Sea, an inverse relationship exists between autumn cyclone frequencies and autumn sea ice extent. Significant cyclone and blocking trends that are consistent with long-term sea ice trends exist in most examined regions. These findings point toward identifying regional trends in extratropical cyclone and blocking frequencies as a useful step toward a better understanding of couplings between Southern Hemisphere climate and regional trends in sea ice extent.},
author = {Schemm, Sebastian},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079109},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Antarctic sea ice,blocking,climate,cyclones,sea ice extent,trends},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {7165--7175},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Regional Trends in Weather Systems Help Explain Antarctic Sea Ice Trends}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079109},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{schepanski2018transport,
author = {Schepanski, Kerstin},
doi = {10.3390/geosciences8050151},
issn = {2076-3263},
journal = {Geosciences},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {151},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Transport of Mineral Dust and Its Impact on Climate}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/8/5/151},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Schewe2014,
abstract = {Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15{\%} of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity ({\&}lt;500 m3 per capita per year) by another 40{\%} (according to some models, more than 100{\%}) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.},
author = {Schewe, Jacob and Heinke, Jens and Gerten, Dieter and Haddeland, Ingjerd and Arnell, Nigel W and Clark, Douglas B and Dankers, Rutger and Eisner, Stephanie and Fekete, Bal{\'{a}}zs M and Col{\'{o}}n-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Felipe J and Gosling, Simon N and Kim, Hyungjun and Liu, Xingcai and Masaki, Yoshimitsu and Portmann, Felix T and Satoh, Yusuke and Stacke, Tobias and Tang, Qiuhong and Wada, Yoshihide and Wisser, Dominik and Albrecht, Torsten and Frieler, Katja and Piontek, Franziska and Warszawski, Lila and Kabat, Pavel},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222460110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {9},
pages = {3245--3250},
title = {{Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3245.abstract http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222460110},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Schewe2017,
abstract = {Abstract. Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 {\%} over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic–thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.},
author = {Schewe, Jacob and Levermann, Anders},
doi = {10.5194/esd-8-495-2017},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
keywords = {Nitrate},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {495--505},
pmid = {10466266},
title = {{Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10466266 https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/495/2017/},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Schiemann2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2017 American Meteorological Society. The aim of this study is to investigate if the representation of Northern Hemisphere blocking is sensitive to resolution in current-generation atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs). An evaluation is conducted of how well atmospheric blocking is represented in four AGCMs whose horizontal resolution is increased from a grid spacing of more than 100 km to about 25 km. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated overall more credibly at higher resolution (i.e., in better agreement with a 50-yr reference blocking climatology created from the reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The improvement seen with resolution depends on the season and to some extent on the model considered. Euro-Atlantic blocking is simulated more realistically at higher resolution in winter, spring, and autumn, and robustly so across the model ensemble. The improvement in spring is larger than that in winter and autumn. Summer blocking is found to be better simulated at higher resolution by one model only, with little change seen in the other three models. The representation of Pacific blocking is not found to systematically depend on resolution. Despite the improvements seen with resolution, the 25-km models still exhibit large biases in Euro-Atlantic blocking. For example, three of the four 25-km models underestimate winter northern European blocking frequency by about one-third. The resolution sensitivity and biases in the simulated blocking are shown to be in part associated with the mean-state biases in the models' midlatitude circulation.},
author = {Schiemann, Reinhard and Demory, Marie Estelle and Shaffrey, Len C. and Strachana, Jane and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Mizielinski, Matthew S. and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Matsueda, Mio and Wehner, Michael F. and Jung, Thomas and Jung, Thomas},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0100.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Blocking,Climate models,Climate variability,Ensembles,Model evaluation/performance,Reanalysis data},
number = {1},
pages = {337--358},
title = {{The resolution sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere blocking in four 25-km atmospheric global circulation models}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Schleussner2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 {\%} in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 {\%} by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 {\%} to 17 {\%} between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 {\%}. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50 cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 °C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 °C scenario. In a 1.5 °C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30 {\%} compared to a 2 °C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming.},
author = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Lissner, Tabea K. and Fischer, Erich M. and Wohland, Jan and Perrette, Mah{\'{e}} and Golly, Antonius and Rogelj, Joeri and Childers, Katelin and Schewe, Jacob and Frieler, Katja and Mengel, Matthias and Hare, William and Schaeffer, Michiel},
doi = {10.5194/esd-7-327-2016},
isbn = {2190-4987},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {327--351},
title = {{Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/7/327/2016/},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Schmid2017,
abstract = {AbstractThis study introduces a methodology to simulate how spatially heterogeneous urban aerosols modify a precipitating thunderstorm in a numerical weather model. An air quality model (Simple Photochemical Model, SPM) was coupled with a high resolution mesoscale weather model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling Systems, RAMS) and generated variable urban cloud condensation nuclei values consistent with those measured in previous field studies. The coupled emission model was used to simulate the passage of a synoptic low with embedded thunderstorms over an idealized city, using the Real Atmosphere Idealized Land surface (RAIL) method. Experiments were conducted to calibrate the surface formation of cloud-nucleating aerosols in an urban environment, then assess the specific response of different aerosol loads on simulated precipitation. The model response to aerosol heterogeneity reduced the total precipitation, but significantly increased simulated rain rates. High aerosol loading scenarios produced a peak ci...},
author = {Schmid, Paul E. and Niyogi, Dev},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0320.1},
issn = {15588432},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
keywords = {Aerosols,Cloud microphysics,Mesoscale models,Urban meteorology},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {2141--2153},
title = {{Modeling urban precipitation modification by spatially heterogeneous aerosols}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0320.1},
volume = {56},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Schmidt2017a,
abstract = {Numerous lines of observational evidence suggest that Earth's tropical belt has expanded over the past 30–40 years. It is natural to expect that this poleward displacement should be associated with drying on the poleward margins of the subtropics, but it is less clear to what degree the drying should be zonally symmetric. This study tests the degree to which poleward motion of the Hadley cell boundary is associated with changes in local precipitation or sea level pressure and the degree to which those changes are zonally symmetric. Evidence from both reanalysis data and global climate models reveals that the local changes associated with Hadley cell expansion are mostly confined to certain centers of action which lie primarily over oceans. Consequently, the tropical expansion measured by zonally averaged variables is not associated with systematic drying over subtropical land regions, as is often assumed.},
author = {Schmidt, Daniel F. and Grise, Kevin M.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075380},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Expansion,Precipitation,Sea Level Pressure},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {10573--10582},
title = {{The Response of Local Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure to Hadley Cell Expansion}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL075380},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Schneider2010,
abstract = {Water vapor is not only Earth's dominant greenhouse gas. Through the release of latent heat when it condenses, it also plays an active role in dynamic processes that shape the global circulation of the atmosphere and thus climate. Here we present an overview of how latent heat release affects atmosphere dynamics in a broad range of climates, ranging from extremely cold to extremely warm. Contrary to widely held beliefs, atmospheric circulation statistics can change nonmonotonic ally with global-mean surface temperature, in part because of dynamic effects of water vapor. For example, the strengths of the tropical Hadley cir culation and of zonally asymmetric tropical circulations as well as the kinetic energy of extratropical baroclinic eddies can be lower than they presently are both in much warmer climates and in much colder climates. We discuss how latent heat release is implicated in such circulation changes particularly through its effect on the atmospheric static stability and we illustrate the circulation changes through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. This allows us to explore a continuum of climates to constrain macroscopic laws governing this climatic continuum and to place past and possible future climate changes in a broader context. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {0908.4410},
author = {Schneider, Tapio and O'Gorman, Paul A. and Levine, Xavier J.},
doi = {10.1029/2009RG000302},
eprint = {0908.4410},
issn = {87551209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {climate change,doi:10.1029/2009RG000302,general circulation,http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000302,water vapor},
number = {1},
pages = {1--22},
title = {{Water vapor and the dynamics of climate changes}},
volume = {48},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Schneider2014,
abstract = {Rainfall on Earth is most intense in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a narrow belt of clouds centred on average around six degrees north of the Equator. The mean position of the ITCZ north of the Equator arises primarily because the Atlantic Ocean transports energy northward across the Equator, rendering the Northern Hemisphere warmer than the Southern Hemisphere. On seasonal and longer timescales, the ITCZ migrates, typically towards a warming hemisphere but with exceptions, such as during El Ni{\~{n}}o events. An emerging framework links the ITCZ to the atmospheric energy balance and may account for ITCZ variations on timescales from years to geological epochs.},
author = {Schneider, Tapio and Bischoff, Tobias and Haug, Gerald H.},
doi = {10.1038/nature13636},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {sep},
number = {7516},
pages = {45--53},
pmid = {25186899},
title = {{Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature13636},
volume = {513},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Schroder2019,
author = {Schr{\"{o}}der, Marc and Lockhoff, Maarit and Shi, Lei and August, Thomas and Bennartz, Ralf and Brogniez, Helene and Calbet, Xavier and Fell, Frank and Forsythe, John and Gambacorta, Antonia},
doi = {10.3390/rs11030251},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
pages = {1--28},
title = {{The GEWEX Water Vapor Assessment: Overview and Introduction to Results and Recommendations}},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Schubert2013,
author = {Schubert, Jonathan J. and Stevens, Bjorn and Crueger, Traute},
doi = {10.1029/2012MS000180},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {71--84},
title = {{Madden–Julian oscillation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model: Over the last and into the next millennium}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012MS000180},
volume = {5},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Schubert2016,
abstract = {Drought affects virtually every region of the world, and potential shifts in its character in a changing climate are a major concern. This article presents a synthesis of current understanding of meteorological drought, with a focus on the large-scale controls on precipitation afforded by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land surface feedbacks, and radiative forcings. The synthesis is primarily based on regionally focused articles submitted to the Global Drought Information System (GDIS) collection together with new results from a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments intended to integrate those studies into a coherent view of drought worldwide. On interannual time scales, the preeminence of ENSO as a driver of meteorological drought throughout much of the Americas, eastern Asia, Australia, and the Maritime Continent is now well established, whereas in other regions (e.g., Europe, Africa, and India), the response to ENSO is more ephemeral or nonexistent. Northern Eurasia, central Europe, and central and eastern Canada stand out as regions with few SST-forced impacts on precipitation on interannual time scales. Decadal changes in SST appear to be a major factor in the occurrence of long-term drought, as highlighted by apparent impacts on precipitation of the late 1990s "climate shifts" in the Pacific and Atlantic SST. Key remaining research challenges include (i) better quantification of unforced and forced atmospheric variability as well as land-atmosphere feedbacks, (ii) better understanding of the physical basis for the leading modes of climate variability and their predictability, and (iii) quantification of the relative contributions of internal decadal SST variability and forced climate change to long-term drought.},
author = {Schubert, Siegfried D. and Stewart, Ronald E. and Wang, Hailan and Barlow, Mathew and Berbery, Ernesto H. and Cai, Wenju and Hoerling, Martin P. and Kanikicharla, Krishna K. and Koster, Randal D. and Lyon, Bradfield and Mariotti, Annarita and Mechoso, Carlos R. and M{\"{u}}ller, Omar V. and Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen and Seager, Richard and Senevirante, Sonia I. and Zhang, Lixia and Zhou, Tianjun and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Zhang, Lixia and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0452.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atm/ocean structure/ phenomena,Climate variability,Decadal variability,Drought,Interannual variability,Precipitation,Sea surface temperature,Variability},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {3989--4019},
title = {{Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0452.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{swksg14,
abstract = {AbstractThis article reviews the understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5). Key new results are 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave); 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST; and 3) the quantification (via...},
author = {Schubert, Siegfried D. and Wang, Hailan and Koster, Randal D. and Suarez, Max J. and Groisman, Pavel Ya},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00360.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
pages = {3169--3207},
title = {{Northern Eurasian heat waves and droughts}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00360.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Schuerch2018a,
abstract = {The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services 1–3 . These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological 4–7 and socio-economic system feedbacks 8 . Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies 1–3 , we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.},
author = {Schuerch, Mark and Spencer, Tom and Temmerman, Stijn and Kirwan, Matthew L. and Wolff, Claudia and Lincke, Daniel and McOwen, Chris J. and Pickering, Mark D. and Reef, Ruth and Vafeidis, Athanasios T. and Hinkel, Jochen and Nicholls, Robert J. and Brown, Sally},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0476-5},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {sep},
number = {7722},
pages = {231--234},
title = {{Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0476-5},
volume = {561},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Schurer2020,
abstract = {Climate models predict a strengthening contrast between wet and dry regions in the tropics and subtropics (30°S-30°N), and data from the latest model intercomparison project (CMIP6) support this expectation. Rainfall in ascending regions increases, and in descending regions decreases in climate models, reanalyses, and observational data. This strengthening contrast can be captured by tracking the rainfall change each month in the wettest and driest third of the tropics and subtropics combined. Since wet and dry regions are selected individually every month for each model ensemble member, and the observations, this analysis is largely unaffected by biases in location of precipitation features. Blended satellite and in situ data from 1988-2019 support the CMIP6-model-simulated tendency of sharpening contrasts between wet and dry regions, with rainfall in wet regions increasing substantially opposed by a slight decrease in dry regions. We detect the effect of external forcings on tropical and subtropical observed precipitation in wet and dry regions combined, and attribute this change for the first time to anthropogenic and natural forcings separately. Our results show that most of the observed change has been caused by increasing greenhouse gases. Natural forcings also contribute, following the drop in wet-region precipitation after the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, while anthropogenic aerosol effects show only weak trends in tropic-wide wet and dry regions consistent with flat global aerosol forcing over the analysis period. The observed response to external forcing is significantly larger (p{\textgreater}0.95) than the multi-model mean simulated response. As expected from climate models, the observed signal strengthens further when focusing on the wet tail of spatial distributions in both models and data.},
author = {Schurer, Andrew P. and Ballinger, Andrew P and Friedman, Andrew R. and Hegerl, Gabriele C.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {10},
pages = {104026},
title = {{Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions}},
url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Scoccimarro_2015,
abstract = {AbstractHeavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency towards more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the sub-daily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and sub-daily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), considered as illustrative of a high rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations over this century. There are statistically significant differences in intense precipitation projections (up to 40{\%}) when comparing the results at the daily and sub-daily time scales. Over north-eastern Europe, projected precipitation intensification at the 3-hour scale is lower than at the daily scale. On the other hand, Spain and the western seaboard...},
author = {Scoccimarro, Enrico and Villarini, Gabriele and Vichi, Marcello and Zampieri, Matteo and Fogli, Pier Giuseppe and Bellucci, Alessio and Gualdi, Silvio},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00779.1},
isbn = {1520-0442},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate Extreme events,Model output statistics},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {6193--6203},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2Fjcli-d-14-00779.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Screen2013,
abstract = {This study examines observed changes (1979–2011) in atmospheric planetary-wave amplitude over northern mid-latitudes, which have been proposed as a possible mechanism linking Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather extremes. We use two distinct but equally-valid definitions of planetary-wave amplitude, termed meridional amplitude, a measure of north-south meandering, and zonal amplitude, a measure of the intensity of atmospheric ridges and troughs at 45°N. Statistically significant changes in either metric are limited to few seasons, wavelengths, and longitudinal sectors. However in summer, we identify significant increases in meridional amplitude over Europe, but significant decreases in zonal amplitude hemispherically, and also individually over Europe and Asia. Therefore, we argue that possible connections between Arctic amplification and planetary waves, and implications of these, are sensitive to how waves are conceptualized. The contrasting meridional and zonal amplitude trends have different and complex possible implications for midlatitude weather, and we encourage further work to better understand these.},
author = {Screen, James A. and Simmonds, Ian},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50174},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {5},
pages = {959--964},
title = {{Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather}},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Screen2014b,
abstract = {There has been an ostensibly large number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the past decade. An open question that is critically important for scientists and policy makers is whether any such increase in weather extremes is natural or anthropogenic in origin. One mechanism proposed to explain the increased frequency of extreme weather events is the amplification of mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves. Disproportionately large warming in the northern polar regions compared with mid-latitudes - and associated weakening of the north-south temperature gradient - may favour larger amplitude planetary waves, although observational evidence for this remains inconclusive. A better understanding of the role of planetary waves in causing mid-latitude weather extremes is essential for assessing the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts of future planetary wave changes. Here we show that months of extreme weather over mid-latitudes are commonly accompanied by significantly amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves. Conversely, months of near-average weather over mid-latitudes are often accompanied by significantly attenuated waves. Depending on geographical region, certain types of extreme weather (for example, hot, cold, wet, dry) are more strongly related to wave amplitude changes than others. The findings suggest that amplification of quasi-stationary waves preferentially increases the probabilities of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia. {\textcopyright} 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.},
author = {Screen, James A. and Simmonds, Ian},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2271},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Atmospheric science,Climate change},
month = {jun},
number = {8},
pages = {704--709},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2271},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Screen2018b,
author = {Screen, J. A. and Bracegirdle, T. J. and Simmonds, I.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0111-4},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {383--395},
title = {{Polar Climate Change as Manifest in Atmospheric Circulation}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-018-0111-4},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{Screen2013a,
abstract = {The Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have experienced frequent summer weather extremes in the last decade (1, 2). In a recent issue of PNAS, Petoukhov et al. (3) propose a single physical mechanism that could help explain the occurrence of these weather extremes. They suggest that such extremes are associated with well-developed synoptic-scale planetary waves, in particular large-amplitude quasi-stationary waves with zonal wave numbers of m = 6-8. If this proposed mechanism is indeed the cause of increased summer extremes, one might expect the amplitudes of wave numbers m = 6-8 to show an increase over time. However, Screen and Simmonds (4) show that this is not the case. Summer-mean daily amplitude trends of 500-hPa geopotential height (Z 500) at 45°N are negative for wave numbers m = 6 and 8 and only weakly positive for m = 7 (see figure 2b in ref. 4). To enable a more direct comparison with Petoukhov et al. (3), we repeated our analysis using monthly mean 300-hPa merid-ional wind (V 300) averaged over latitudes 37.5-57.5°N. The linear changes over 1979-2012, with associated two-tailed probabilities (P) in parentheses, are as follows: −0.07 (0.92), 0.04 (0.95), and −0.27 ms −1 (0.43) for m = 6, 7, and 8, respectively, in July and 0.27 (0.73), 0.58 (0.31), and 0.24 ms −1 (0.51), respectively, in August. None of these trends are statistically significant, and neither are equivalent trends for Z 500 (consistent with geostrophy). We also computed equivalent trends based on the longer period 1948-2012 using data from the same source as Petoukhov et al. (3). None of the 65-y trends are significant (at the P ≤ 0.1 level) for V 300 or Z 500. It is plausible that amplitude changes are nonlinear in time or have emerged only recently in response to accelerated Arctic warming (5). Petoukhov et al. (3) report more months with high-amplitude wave numbers m = 6-8 and fewer months with low-amplitude wave numbers m = 6-8 in the last 11-y period (2002-2012) than in the previous two periods (i.e., 1980-1990 and 1991-2001), but do not provide estimates of the statistical significance of these differences. We computed the mean amplitudes of wave numbers m = 6, 7, and 8 in the last 11-y period vs. the previous 23 y (1979-2001). The differences in epoch-mean amplitudes are as follows: 0.32 (P = 0.45), 0.07 (0.87), and −0.13 ms −1 (0.53) for m = 6, 7, and 8, respectively, in July and 0.11 (0.83), 0.06 (0.86), and 0.13 ms −1 (0.56) in August, respectively. None of the differences are statistically significant, nor are equivalent differences based on Z 500. Thus, there is neither a significant linear trend nor a recent significant shift in the amplitudes of quasista-tionary planetary waves with wave numbers m = 6-8. Further work is required to more fully test the hypotheses and interpretations of Petoukhov et al. (3), which the authors of that study acknowledge. However, ref. 4, this letter, and figure 3 in ref. 3 provide early indications that long-term change in planetary wave amplitudes, if present, are not statistically significant and emphasize the need for caution when linking the increased occurrence of weather extremes to amplified planetary waves. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank Randall Dole for useful discussions. The data used in this letter are freely available online from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory (www.esrl.noaa.gov/ psd/data/).},
author = {Screen, James A. and Simmonds, Ian},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1304867110},
issn = {00278424},
month = {jun},
number = {26},
pages = {E2327--E2327},
pmid = {23657013},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Caution needed when linking weather extremes to amplified planetary waves}},
url = {www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1304867110},
volume = {110},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Seager2014a,
author = {Seager, Richard and Neelin, David and Simpson, Isla and Liu, Haibo and Henderson, Naomi and Shaw, Tiffany and Kushnir, Yochanan and Ting, Mingfang and Cook, Benjamin},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00153.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {7921--7948},
title = {{Dynamical and Thermodynamical Causes of Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle over North America in Response to Global Warming}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00153.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Seager2014e,
abstract = {The hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean region, as well as its change over the coming decades, is investigated using the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) historical simulations and projections of the coming decades. The Mediterranean land regions have positive precipitation minus evaporation, P2E, in winter and negative P2E in summer. According to ERA-Interim, positive P2E over land in winter is sustained by transient eddy moisture convergence and opposed by mean flow moisture divergence. Dry mean flow advection is important for opposing the transient eddy moisture flux convergence in the winter half year and the mass divergent mean flow is a prime cause of negative P2E in the summer half year. These features are well reproduced in the CMIP5 ensemble. The models predict reduced P2E over the Mediterranean region in the future year-round. For both land and sea, a common cause of drying is increased mean flow moisture divergence. Changes in transient eddy moisture fluxes largely act diffusively and cause drying over the sea and moistening over many land areas to the north in winter and drying over western land areas and moistening over the eastern sea in summer. Increased mean flow moisture divergence is caused by both the increase in atmospheric humidity in a region of mean flow divergence and strengthening of the mass divergence. Increased mass divergence is related to increased high pressure over the central Mediterranean in winter and over the Atlantic and northern Europe in summer, which favors subsidence and low-level divergence over the Mediterranean region. {\textcopyright} 2014 American Meteorological Society.},
author = {Seager, Richard and Liu, Haibo and Henderson, Naomi and Simpson, Isla and Kelley, Colin and Shaw, Tiffany and Kushnir, Yochanan and Ting, Mingfang},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00446.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Europe,Hydrolo,Mediterranean Sea},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4655--4676},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Causes of Increasing Aridification of the Mediterranean Region in Response to Rising Greenhouse Gases}},
url = {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/may/14/spain.},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Seager2019NClim,
abstract = {As exemplified by El Ni{\~{n}}o, the tropical Pacific Ocean strongly influences regional climates and their variability worldwide1,2,3. It also regulates the rate of global temperature rise in response to rising GHGs4. The tropical Pacific Ocean response to rising GHGs impacts all of the world's population. State-of-the-art climate models predict that rising GHGs reduce the west-to-east warm-to-cool sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific5. In nature, however, the gradient has strengthened in recent decades as GHG concentrations have risen sharply5. This stark discrepancy between models and observations has troubled the climate research community for two decades. Here, by returning to the fundamental dynamics and thermodynamics of the tropical ocean–atmosphere system, and avoiding sources of model bias, we show that a parsimonious formulation of tropical Pacific dynamics yields a response that is consistent with observations and attributable to rising GHGs. We use the same dynamics to show that the erroneous warming in state-of-the-art models is a consequence of the cold bias of their equatorial cold tongues. The failure of state-of-the-art models to capture the correct response introduces critical error into their projections of climate change in the many regions sensitive to tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.},
author = {Seager, Richard and Cane, Mark and Henderson, Naomi and Lee, Dong-Eun and Abernathey, Ryan and Zhang, Honghai},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0505-x},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate-change impacts,Ocean sciences},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {517--522},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media {\{}LLC{\}}},
title = {{Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0505-x},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Seager2019a,
abstract = {Mediterranean-type climates are defined by temperate, wet winters, and hot or warm dry summers and exist at the western edges of five continents in locations determined by the geography of winter storm tracks and summer subtropical anticyclones. The climatology, variability, and long-term changes in winter precipitation in Mediterranean-type climates, and the mechanisms for model-projected near-term future change, are analyzed. Despite commonalities in terms of location in the context of planetary-scale dynamics, the causes of variability are distinct across the regions. Internal atmospheric variability is the dominant source of winter precipitation variability in all Mediterranean-type climate regions, but only in the Mediterranean is this clearly related to annular mode variability. Ocean forcing of variability is a notable influence only for California and Chile. As a consequence, potential predictability of winter precipitation variability in the regions is low. In all regions, the trend in winter precipitation since 1901 is similar to that which arises as a response to changes in external forcing in the models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. All Mediterranean-type climate regions, except in North America, have dried and the models project further drying over coming decades. In the Northern Hemisphere, dynamical processes are responsible: development of a winter ridge over the Mediterranean that suppresses precipitation and of a trough west of the North American west coast that shifts the Pacific storm track equatorward. In the Southern Hemisphere, mixed dynamic–thermodynamic changes are important that place a minimum in vertically integrated water vapor change at the coast and enhance zonal dry advection into Mediterranean-type climate regions inland.},
author = {Seager, Richard and Osborn, Timothy J. and Kushnir, Yochanan and Simpson, Isla R. and Nakamura, Jennifer and Liu, Haibo},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0472.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Climate change,Climate classification/regimes,Climate variability,Hydrologic cycle,Subtropics},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {2887--2915},
title = {{Climate Variability and Change of Mediterranean-Type Climates}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/10/jcli-d-18-0472.1.xml},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Segura2020,
abstract = {Analyzing December–February (DJF) precipitation in the southern tropical Andes—STA (12∘S–20∘S; {\textgreater} 3000 m.a.s.l) allows revisiting regional atmospheric circulation features accounting for its interannual variability over the past 35 years (1982–2018). In a region where in-situ rainfall stations are sparse, the CHIRPS precipitation product is used to identify the first mode of interannual DJF precipitation variability (PC1-Andes). A network of 98 rain-gauge stations further allows verifying that PC1-Andes properly represents the spatio-temporal rainfall distribution over the region; in particular a significant increase in DJF precipitation over the period of study is evident in both in-situ data and PC1-Andes. Using the ERA-Interim data set, we found that aside from the well-known relationship between precipitation and upper-level easterlies over the STA, PC1-Andes is also associated with upward motion over the western Amazon (WA), a link that has not been reported before. The ascent over the WA is a component of the meridional circulation between the tropical North Atlantic and western tropical South America—WTSA (80∘W–60∘W; 35∘S–10∘N). Indeed, the precipitation increase over the last 2 decades is concomitant with the strengthening of this meridional circulation. An intensified upward motion over the WA has moistened the mid-troposphere over WTSA, and as a consequence, a decreased atmospheric stability between the mid- and the upper troposphere is observed over this region, including the STA. We further show that, over the last 15 years or so, the year-to-year variability of STA precipitation (periodicity {\textless} 8 years) has been significantly associated with upward motion over the WA, while upper-level easterlies are no longer significantly correlated with precipitation. These observations suggests that the STA have experienced a transition from a dry to a wet state in association with a change in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation. In the former dominant state, zonal advection of momentum and moisture from the central Amazon, associated with upper-level easterlies, is necessary to develop convection over the STA. Since the beginning of the 21st century, DJF precipitation over the STA seems to respond directly and primarily to upward motion over the WA. Beyond improving our understanding of the factors influencing STA precipitation nowadays, these results point to the need of exploring their possible implications for the long-term evolution of precipitation in a context of global warming.},
author = {Segura, Hans and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Junquas, Clementine and Lebel, Thierry and Vuille, Mathias and Garreaud, Rene},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05132-6},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Altiplano precipitation,Amazon convection,Amazon-Andes connectivity,South America atmospheric },
number = {5-6},
pages = {2613--2631},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Recent changes in the precipitation-driving processes over the southern tropical Andes/western Amazon}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05132-6},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Seiler2013,
abstract = {Climate-related disasters in Bolivia are frequent, severe, and manifold$\backslash$nand affect large parts of the population, economy, and ecosystems.$\backslash$nPotentially amplified through climate change, natural hazards are of$\backslash$ngrowing concern. To better understand these events, homogenized daily$\backslash$nobservations of temperature (29 stations) and precipitation (68$\backslash$nstations) from 1960 to 2009 were analyzed in this study. The impact of$\backslash$nthe positive (+) and negative (-) phases of the three climate modes (i)$\backslash$nPacific decadal oscillation (PDO), (ii) El Nino-Southern Oscillation$\backslash$n(ENSO) with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) events, and (iii) Antarctic$\backslash$nOscillation (AAO) were assessed. Temperatures were found to be higher$\backslash$nduring PDO(+), EN, and AAO(+) in the Andes. Total amounts of rainfall,$\backslash$nas well as the number of extreme events, were higher during PDO(+), EN,$\backslash$nand LN in the lowlands. During austral summer {\{}[{\}}December-February$\backslash$n(DJF)], EN led to drier conditions in the Andes with more variable$\backslash$nprecipitation. Temperatures increased at a rate of 0.1 degrees C per$\backslash$ndecade, with stronger increases in the Andes and in the dry season.$\backslash$nRainfall totals increased from 1965 to 1984 {\{}[{\}}12{\%} in DJF and 18{\%} in$\backslash$nJune-August (JJA)] and decreased afterward (-4{\%} in DJF and -10{\%} in$\backslash$nJJA), following roughly the pattern of PDO. Trends of climate extremes$\backslash$ngenerally corresponded to trends of climate means. Findings suggest that$\backslash$nBolivia's climate will be warmer and drier than average in the near-term$\backslash$nfuture. Having entered PDO(-) in 2007, droughts and LN-related floods$\backslash$ncan be expected in the lowlands, while increasing temperatures suggest$\backslash$nhigher risks of drought in the Andes.},
author = {Seiler, Christian and Hutjes, Ronald W.A. and Kabat, Pavel},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0105.1},
issn = {15588424},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
number = {1},
pages = {130--146},
title = {{Climate Variability and Trends in Bolivia}},
volume = {52},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Semenov2015,
abstract = {The early 21st century was marked by several severe winters over Central Eurasia linked to a blocking anti-cyclone centered south of the Barents Sea. Severe winters in Central Eurasia were frequent in the 1960s when Arctic sea ice cover was anomalously large, and rare in the 1990s featuring considerably less sea ice cover; the 1960s being characterized by a low, the 1990s by a high phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the major driver of surface climate variability in Central Eurasia. We performed ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model using a set of multi-year Arctic sea ice climatologies corresponding to different periods during 1966–2012. The atmospheric response to the strongly reduced sea ice cover of 2005–2012 exhibits a statistically significant anti-cyclonic surface pressure anomaly which is similar to that observed. A similar response is found when the strongly positive sea ice cover anomaly of 1966–1969 drives the model. Basically no significant atmospheric circulation response was simulated when the model was forced by the sea ice cover anomaly of 1990–1995. The results suggest that sea ice cover reduction, through a changed atmospheric circulation, considerably contributed to the recent anomalously cold winters in Central Eurasia. Further, a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to shrinking sea ice cover is suggested that depends on the background sea ice cover.},
author = {Semenov, V. A. and Latif, M.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {5},
pages = {054020},
title = {{Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012}},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0645.1,
abstract = {Projected changes in the South American monsoon system by the end of the twenty-first century are analyzed using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). The wet season is shorter in LENS when compared to observations, with the mean onset occurring 19 days later and the mean retreat date 21 days earlier in the season. Despite a precipitation bias, the seasonality of rainfall over South America is reproduced in LENS, as well as the main circulation features associated with the development of the South American monsoon. Both the onset and retreat of the wet season over South America are delayed in the future compared to current climate by 3 and 7 days, respectively, with a slightly longer wet season. Central and southeastern Brazil are projected to get wetter as a result of moisture convergence from the strengthening of the South Atlantic low-level jet and a weaker South Atlantic subtropical high. The Amazon is projected to get drier by the end of the century, negatively affecting rain forest productivity. During the wet season, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is found over most of South America, and especially over northeastern and southern Brazil and La Plata. Meanwhile, during the dry season an increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days is found over northeastern Brazil and the northern Amazon.},
author = {Sena, Ana Claudia Thome and Magnusdottir, Gudrun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0645.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {18},
pages = {7859--7874},
title = {{Projected End-of-Century Changes in the South American Monsoon in the CESM Large Ensemble}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0645.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Seneviratne2012a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Seneviratne, Sonia I and Nicholls, Neville and Easterling, David and Goodess, Clare M and Kanae, Shinjiro and Kossin, James and Luo, Yali and Marengo, Jose and McInnes, Kathleen and Rahimi, Mohammad and Reichstein, Markus and Sorteberg, Asgeir and Vera, Carolina and Zhang, Xuebin and Rusticucci, Matilde and Semenov, Vladimir and Alexander, Lisa V. and Allen, Simon and Benito, Gerardo and Cavazos, Tereza and Clague, John and Conway, Declan and Della-Marta, Paul M. and Gerber, Markus and Gong, Sunling and Goswami, B. N. and Hemer, Mark and Huggel, Christian and van den Hurk, Bart and Kharin, Viatcheslav V. and Kitoh, Akio and Tank, Albert M.G. Klein and Li, Guilong and Mason, Simon and McGuire, William and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Orlowsky, Boris and Smith, Sharon and Thiaw, Wassila and Velegrakis, Adonis and Yiou, Pascal and Zhang, Tingjun and Zhou, Tianjun and Zwiers, Francis W.},
booktitle = {Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781139177245.006},
editor = {Field, C B and Barros, V and Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Dokken, D J and Ebi, K L and Mastrandrea, M D and Mach, K J and Plattner, G-.K. and Allen, S K and Tignor, M and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107025066},
pages = {109--230},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/managing-the-risks-of-extreme-events-and-disasters-to-advance-climate-change-adaptation/},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Seo2014,
abstract = {The CMIP5 21st century climate change simulations exhibit a robust (slight) weakening of the Hadley cell (HC) during the boreal winter (summer, respectively) season in the future climate. Using 30 different coupled model simulations, we investigate the main mechanisms for both the multi-model ensemble mean changes in the HC strength and its inter-model changes in response to global warming during these seasons. A simple scaling analysis relates the strength of the HC to three factors: the meridional potential temperature gradient, gross static stability, and tropopause height. We found that changes in the meridional potential temperature gradients across the subtropics in a warming climate play a crucial role in the ensemble mean changes and model-to-model variations in the HC strength for both seasons. A larger reduction in the meridional temperature gradient in the Northern Hemisphere in boreal winter leads to the larger reduction of the HC strength in that season.},
author = {Seo, Kyong-Hwan and Frierson, Dargan M W and Son, Jun-Hyeok},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL060868},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,Hadley cell,future change},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {5251--5258},
title = {{A mechanism for future changes in Hadley circulation strength in CMIP5 climate change simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL060868},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00726.1,
abstract = {Analyses of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) experiments show that the global monsoon is expected to increase in area, precipitation, and intensity as the climate system responds to anthropogenic forcing. Concurrently, detailed analyses for several individual monsoons indicate a redistribution of rainfall from early to late in the rainy season. This analysis examines CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions, using a moist static energy framework to evaluate competing mechanisms identified to be important in precipitation changes over land. In the presence of sufficient surface moisture, the local response to the increase in downwelling energy is characterized by increased evaporation, increased low-level moist static energy, and decreased stability with consequent increases in precipitation. A remote mechanism begins with warmer oceans and operates on land regions via a warmer tropical troposphere, increased stability, and decreased precipitation. The remote mechanism controls the projected changes during winter, and the local mechanism controls the switch to increased precipitation during summer in most monsoon regions. During the early summer transition, regions where boundary layer moisture availability is reduced owing to decreases in evaporation and moisture convergence experience an enhanced convective barrier. Regions characterized by adequate evaporation and moisture convergence do not experience reductions in early summer precipitation.This enhanced convective barrier leads to a redistribution of rainfall from early to late summer, and is robust in the American and African monsoons but muddled in Asia. As described here, viewing monsoons from their inherent ties to the annual cycle could help to fingerprint changes as they evolve.},
author = {Seth, Anji and Rauscher, Sara A and Biasutti, Michela and Giannini, Alessandra and Camargo, Suzana J and Rojas, Maisa},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00726.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {19},
pages = {7328--7351},
title = {{CMIP5 Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00726.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Seth2019a,
abstract = {Purpose of Review Knowledge of how monsoons will respond to external forcings through the twenty-first century has been confounded by incomplete theories of tropical climate and insufficient representation in climate models. This review highlights recent insights from past warm climates and historical trends that can inform our understanding of monsoon evolution in the context of an emerging energetic framework. Recent Findings Projections consistent with paleoclimate evidence and theory indicate expanded/wetter monsoons in Africa and Asia, with continued uncertainty in the Americas. Twentieth century observations are not congruent with expectations of monsoon responses to radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, due to the confounding effect of aerosols. Lines of evidence from warm climate analogues indicate that while monsoons respond in globally coherent and predictable ways to orbital forcing and inter-hemispheric thermal gradients, there are differences in response to these forcings and also between land and ocean. Summary Further understanding of monsoon responses to climate change will require refinement of the energetic framework to incorporate zonal asymmetries and the use of model hierarchies.},
author = {Seth, Anji and Giannini, Alessandra and Rojas, Maisa and Rauscher, Sara A. and Bordoni, Simona and Singh, Deepti and Camargo, Suzana J.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-019-00125-y},
issn = {21986061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
number = {2},
pages = {63--79},
title = {{Monsoon Responses to Climate Changes—Connecting Past, Present and Future}},
volume = {5},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Seviour2018,
author = {Seviour, William J. M. and Davis, Sean M. and Grise, Kevin M. and Waugh, Darryn W.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076335},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {1106--1113},
title = {{Large Uncertainty in the Relative Rates of Dynamical and Hydrological Tropical Expansion}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL076335},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Shakun2007,
author = {Shakun, Jeremy D. and Burns, Stephen J. and Fleitmann, Dominik and Kramers, Jan and Matter, Albert and Al-Subary, Abdulkarim},
doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2007.05.004},
issn = {0012821X},
journal = {Earth and Planetary Science Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {3-4},
pages = {442--456},
title = {{A high-resolution, absolute-dated deglacial speleothem record of Indian Ocean climate from Socotra Island, Yemen}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012821X07002968},
volume = {259},
year = {2007}
}
@article{esd-11-755-2020,
author = {Shamsudduha, M and Taylor, R G},
doi = {10.5194/esd-11-755-2020},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {755--774},
title = {{Groundwater storage dynamics in the world's large aquifer systems from GRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/755/2020/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Shanahan:2015,
author = {Shanahan, Timothy M and McKay, Nicholas P and Hughen, Konrad A and Overpeck, Jonathan T and Otto-Bliesner, Bette and Heil, Clifford W and King, John and Scholz, Christopher A and Peck, John},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2329},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {140--144},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The time-transgressive termination of the African Humid Period}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2329},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Shang2019,
abstract = {In this paper, we examined the spatial and temporal variations in precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in China based on daily precipitation data from 2050 weather stations from 1973 to 2016. We used two Markov chain parameters to quantify the wet persistence and dry persistence that characterizes the temporal pattern of wet and dry days, respectively. We found that China's annual precipitation changed little from 1973 to 2016, but varied dramatically from 524 to 688 mm yr-1, with an average of 592 mm yr-1, during this period. China's precipitation frequency, the number of days with effective precipitation ({\textgreater}0.1 mm day-1) in a year, significantly decreased at a rate of 0.9 days decade-1 from 1973 to 2016, but precipitation intensity significantly increased at a rate of 0.12 mm day-1 decade-1 during the same period. Of the changes in China's total precipitation amount, precipitation intensity played a dominant role, contributing 70.8{\%}, while precipitation frequency contributed the remaining 29.2{\%}. Little change was found in the wet persistence in China over the period of 1973–2016, but the dry persistence significantly increased with an average increasing trend of 1.62 × 10-3 probability per decade during the same period, and no significant correlations were found between these two variables. China's precipitation also changed nonuniformly in space, with increasing trends in precipitation amount, frequency, intensity, and wet persistence in western and northeastern China but decreasing trends in the Sichuan basin, northeast of Inner Mongolia, and the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region.},
author = {Shang, H. U.A. and Xu, Ming and Zhao, F. E.N. and Tijjani, Sadiya Baba},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-19-0032.1},
issn = {15257541},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
number = {11},
pages = {2215--2227},
title = {{Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation amount, frequency, intensity, and persistence in china, 1973–2016}},
volume = {20},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Shannon2019,
abstract = {Abstract. The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2{\&}deg;C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5{\&}deg;C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries, suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding +2{\&}deg;C global average warming relative to the preindustrial period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass balance model for the Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator (JULES). To do this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and un-glaciated surfaces that can exist at multiple heights within a single grid-box. Present day mass balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation and temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models which were downscaled using the high resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere only global climate model. The ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus/minus one standard deviation is, minus;64±5{\%} for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-model mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose more than 75{\%} of their initial volume by the end of the century are; Alaska, Western Canada and US, Iceland, Scandinavia, Russian Arctic, Central Europe, Caucasus, High Mountain Asia, Low Latitudes, Southern Andes and New Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea-level equivalent contribution is 215.2±21.3mm. The largest contributors to sea level rise are Alaska (44.6±1.1mm), Arctic Canada North and South (34.9±3.0mm), Russian Arctic (33.3±4.8mm), Greenland (20.1±4.4), High Mountain Asia (combined Central Asia, South Asia East and West), (18.0±0.8mm), Southern Andes (14.4±0.1mm) and Svalbard (17.0±4.6mm). Including parametric uncertainty in the calibrated mass balance parameters, gives an upper bound global volume loss of 247.3mm, sea-level equivalent by the end of the century. Such large ice losses will have inevitable consequences for sea-level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.},
author = {Shannon, Sarah and Smith, Robin and Wiltshire, Andy and Payne, Tony and Huss, Matthias and Betts, Richard and Caesar, John and Koutroulis, Aris and Jones, Darren and Harrison, Stephan},
doi = {10.5194/tc-13-325-2019},
issn = {19940424},
journal = {Cryosphere},
number = {1},
pages = {325--350},
title = {{Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios}},
volume = {13},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sharma2019a,
abstract = {Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), defined as narrow, transient corridors of strong moisture transport in the lower troposphere, are important phenomena for freshwater recharge and water resources, especially along the west coast of North America. This study presents the variability and trends of landfalling ARs (LARs) along the higher (53.5°?60.0°N) and lower (47.0°?53.5°N) latitudes of British Columbia and southeastern Alaska (BCSAK) during the 1948?2016 period. Moreover, we present the synoptic evolution and distribution of LARs in BCSAK during different phases of ocean?atmosphere climate variability using a six-hourly AR catalogue from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research. During 1948?2016, BCSAK averages 35?± 5 LARs annually, with the highest frequency during fall (13?± 2) and lowest during spring (5 ± 2). The frequency of LARs across BCSAK rises during the study period, and the increase between 1979 and 2016 is statistically significant (p {\textless}?.05). A strong ridge over the Pacific Northwest and BC and a trough over the Gulf of Alaska and the Northeastern Pacific Ocean favours AR landfalls at the higher and lower latitudes, respectively. BCSAK experiences greater numbers of LARs during neutral phases of El Ni{\~{n}}o/Southern Oscillation, the 2013/2014 Pacific oceanic blob, and during the positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Pacific North American Pattern.},
author = {Sharma, Aseem R. and D{\'{e}}ry, Stephen J.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6227},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {British Columbia,southeastern Alaska,synoptic evolution,trends},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {544--558},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Variability and trends of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the Pacific Coast of northwestern North America}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6227 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6227 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6227},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sharma2018,
abstract = {Despite evidence of increasing precipitation extremes, corresponding evidence for increases in flooding remains elusive. If anything, flood magnitudes are decreasing despite widespread claims by the climate community that if precipitation extremes increase, floods must also. In this commentary we suggest reasons why increases in extreme rainfall are not resulting in corresponding increases in flooding. Among the possible mechanisms responsible, we identify decreases in antecedent soil moisture, decreasing storm extent, and decreases in snowmelt. We argue that understanding the link between changes in precipitation and changes in flooding is a grand challenge for the hydrologic community and is deserving of increased attention.},
author = {Sharma, Ashish and Wasko, Conrad and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
doi = {10.1029/2018WR023749},
issn = {19447973},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {climate change,extreme precipitation magnitude risk,temperature sensitivity},
number = {11},
pages = {8545--8551},
title = {{If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing, Why Aren't Floods?}},
volume = {54},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sharma2019NCC,
abstract = {Ice provides a range of ecosystem services—including fish harvest 1 , cultural traditions 2 , transportation 3 , recreation 4 and regulation of the hydrological cycle 5 —to more than half of the world's 117 million lakes. One of the earliest observed impacts of climatic warming has been the loss of freshwater ice 6 , with corresponding climatic and ecological consequences 7 . However, while trends in ice cover phenology have been widely documented 2,6,8,9 , a comprehensive large-scale assessment of lake ice loss is absent. Here, using observations from 513 lakes around the Northern Hemisphere, we identify lakes vulnerable to ice-free winters. Our analyses reveal the importance of air temperature, lake depth, elevation and shoreline complexity in governing ice cover. We estimate that 14,800 lakes currently experience intermittent winter ice cover, increasing to 35,300 and 230,400 at 2 and 8 °C, respectively, and impacting up to 394 and 656 million people. Our study illustrates that an extensive loss of lake ice will occur within the next generation, stressing the importance of climate mitigation strategies to preserve ecosystem structure and function, as well as local winter cultural heritage.},
author = {Sharma, Sapna and Blagrave, Kevin and Magnuson, John J. and O'Reilly, Catherine M. and Oliver, Samantha and Batt, Ryan D. and Magee, Madeline R. and Straile, Dietmar and Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A. and Winslow, Luke and Woolway, R. Iestyn},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0393-5},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {3},
pages = {227--231},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere in a warming world}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fs41558-018-0393-5},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sharmila2018NatureClim,
abstract = {Recent research indicates that the annual-mean locations of tropical cyclones have migrated toward higher latitudes. Concurrently, an anthropogenically forced tropical expansion has been observed, yet the connection between the two processes remains little-explored. Here, using observational and reanalysis data, we investigate how large-scale dynamical effects, combined with coherent changes in the regional Hadley circulation, explain recent changes in regional tropical cyclone genesis over 1980–2014. We show that the recent anomalous upper-level weakening of the rising branch of the Hadley circulation in the deep tropics, possibly induced by the increased vertical stability, has likely suppressed the low-latitude tropical cyclone genesis in most ocean basins via anomalous large-scale subsidence. Regional Hadley circulation variations have also favoured a poleward displacement of tropical-cyclone-favourable climate conditions through poleward shift of the Hadley circulation's meridional extent. With projections indicating continued tropical expansion, these results indicate that tropical cyclone genesis will also continue to shift poleward, potentially increasing tropical-cyclone-related hazards in higher-latitude regions.},
annote = {poleward migration of tropical cyclones linked to expansion of Hadley cell and changes in atmospheric stability.},
author = {Sharmila, S. and Walsh, K. J.E.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {8},
pages = {730--736},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fs41558-018-0227-5},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sharmila2015,
abstract = {In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21stcentury indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming may notably modulate the ISM rainfall in future climate. Both extreme wet and dry episodes are likely to intensify and regionally extend in future climate with enhanced propensity of short active and long break spells. The SM (WM) could also be more wet (dry) in future due to the increment in longer active (break) spells. However, future changes in the spatial pattern during active/break phase of SM and WM are geographically inconsistent among the models. The results point out the growing climate-related vulnerability over Indian subcontinent, and further suggest the requisite of profound adaptation measures and better policy making in future.},
author = {Sharmila, S. and Joseph, S. and Sahai, A.K. and Abhilash, S. and Chattopadhyay, R.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.004},
isbn = {0921-8181},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {CMIP5,Climate change,Future projection,Monsoon variability},
month = {jan},
pages = {62--78},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.004 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818114002239},
volume = {124},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Shaw2016GRL,
abstract = {In Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) direct radiative forcing (increased CO2 with fixed sea surface temperature) is an imperfect concept because land temperatures are not fixed. Here the response to direct radiative forcing is decomposed into increased CO2 over ocean and land using an AGCM with spatially dependent CO2. The land versus ocean response is mostly linear. Consistent with previous work, ocean direct radiative forcing decreases ocean-averaged outgoing longwave radiation, precipitation, and tropical circulation intensity; however, it cannot explain the regional response to direct radiative forcing. Increased CO2 over land dominates the regional response via energy input over land, e.g., over deserts where there is no cloud and water vapor masking and a Rossby wave teleconnection. This mechanism operates across a range of climate perturbations, including decreased CO2. Previous AGCM decompositions involving direct radiative forcing and indirect sea surface temperature warming must be reinterpreted to include the importance of increased CO2 over land.},
annote = {changes in atmospheric energy budget over land dominates fast regional climate response to CO2 radiative forcing},
author = {Shaw, Tiffany A. and Voigt, Aiko},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071368},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Rossby waves,climate change},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11383--11391},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Land dominates the regional response to CO2 direct radiative forcing}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2016gl071368},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Shaw2018GRL,
abstract = {The atmospheric circulation exhibits robust responses to increased CO2 that emerge across the climate model hierarchy. Existing theoretical explanations of the circulation response can be grouped according to latitude. Here we test latitudinally dependent explanations of the circulation response to increased CO2 using slab ocean aquaplanet models with latitudinally dependent CO2 concentration. Quadrupling CO2 in the tropics (0–20°) accounts for the strengthening and upward shift of the subtropical jet but does not account for the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edge or extratropical circulation. The tropical response is dominated by regions of descent. When CO2 is quadrupled in high latitudes (60–90°), there is a negligible circulation response. The response to latitudinally dependent increased CO2 is mostly linear and increased CO2 in the midlatitudes (20–60°) dominates. Within the midlatitudes, the subtropics (20–40°) dominate. Thus, story lines explaining the circulation shift in response to increased CO2 should focus on the thermodynamic response in the subtropics.},
annote = {Idealised modelling study finds atmospheric circulation response to CO2 quadrupling is dominated by subtropical descent which drive poleward shift in Hadley Cell while response to CO2 increases in the tropics drives strengthening and upward shift of the subtropical jet and is negligible in response to high latitude CO2 increases.},
author = {Shaw, Tiffany A. and Tan, Zhihong},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078974},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {9861--9869},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Testing Latitudinally Dependent Explanations of the Circulation Response to Increased CO2 Using Aquaplanet Models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL078974 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL078974},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Shaw2019,
abstract = {State-of-the-art climate models predict the zonal mean mid-latitude circulation will undergo a poleward shift and seasonally and hemispherically dependent intensity changes in the future. Here I review the mechanisms put forward to explain the zonal mean mid-latitude circulation response to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. The mechanisms are grouped according to their thermodynamic starting point, which are thought to arise from processes independent of the zonal mean mid-latitude circulation response. There are 24 mechanisms and 8 thermodynamic starting points: (i) increased latent heat release aloft in the tropics, (ii) increased dry static stability and tropopause height outside the tropics, (iii) radiative cooling of the stratosphere, (iv) Hadley cell expansion, (v) increased specific humidity following the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, (vi) cloud radiative effect changes, (vii) turbulent surface heat flux changes, and (viii) decreased surface meridional temperature gradient. I argue progress can be made by testing the thermodynamic starting points. I review recent tests of the increased latent heat release aloft in the tropics starting point, i.e., prescribing diabatic perturbations, quantifying the transient response to an abrupt CO2 increase and imposing latitudinally dependent CO2 concentration. Finally, I provide a future outlook for improving our understanding of predicted changes in the zonal mean mid-latitude circulation.},
author = {Shaw, Tiffany A.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-019-00145-8},
issn = {21986061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Circulation,Climate change},
number = {4},
pages = {345--357},
publisher = {Current Climate Change Reports},
title = {{Mechanisms of Future Predicted Changes in the Zonal Mean Mid-Latitude Circulation}},
volume = {5},
year = {2019}
}
@misc{Shaw2016a,
abstract = {Extratropical cyclones are storm systems that are observed to travel preferentially within confined regions known as storm tracks. They contribute to precipitation, wind and temperature extremes in mid-latitudes. Cyclones tend to form where surface temperature gradients are large, and the jet stream influences their speed and direction of travel. Storm tracks shape the global climate through transport of energy and momentum. The intensity and location of storm tracks varies seasonally, and in response to other natural variations, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature. A hierarchy of numerical models of the atmosphere-ocean system [mdash] from highly idealized to comprehensive [mdash] has been used to study and predict responses of storm tracks to anthropogenic climate change. The future position and intensity of storm tracks depend on processes that alter temperature gradients. However, different processes can have opposing influences on temperature gradients, which leads to a tug of war on storm track responses and makes future projections more difficult. For example, as climate warms, surface shortwave cloud radiative changes increase the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient, but at the same time, longwave cloud radiative changes reduce this gradient. Future progress depends on understanding and accurately quantifying the relative influence of such processes on the storm tracks.},
author = {Shaw, T. A. and Baldwin, M. and Barnes, E. A. and Caballero, R. and Garfinkel, C. I. and Hwang, Y. T. and Li, C. and O'Gorman, P. A. and Rivi{\`{e}}re, G. and Simpson, I. R. and Voigt, A.},
booktitle = {Nature Geoscience},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2783},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {17520908},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Atmospheric science,Climate,Projection and prediction,change impacts},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {656--664},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2783},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Shean2020,
abstract = {High-mountain Asia (HMA) constitutes the largest glacierized region outside of the Earth's polar regions. Although available observations are limited, long-term records indicate sustained HMA glacier mass loss since {\~{}}1850, with accelerated loss in recent decades. Recent satellite data capture the spatial variability of this mass loss, but spatial resolution is coarse and some estimates for regional and HMA-wide mass loss disagree. To address these issues, we generated 5,797 high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from available sub-meter commercial stereo imagery (DigitalGlobe WorldView-1/2/3 and GeoEye-1) acquired over HMA glaciers from 2007 to 2018 (primarily 2013–2017). We also reprocessed 28,278 ASTER DEMs over HMA from 2000 to 2018. We combined these observations to generate robust elevation change trend maps and geodetic mass balance estimates for 99{\%} of HMA glaciers between 2000 and 2018. We estimate total HMA glacier mass change of −19.0 ± 2.5 Gt yr−1 (−0.19 ± 0.03 m w.e. yr−1). We document the spatial pattern of HMA glacier mass change with unprecedented detail, and present aggregated estimates for HMA glacierized sub-regions and hydrologic basins. Our results offer improved estimates for the HMA contribution to global sea level rise in recent decades with total cumulative sea-level rise contribution of {\~{}}0.7 mm from exorheic basins between 2000 and 2018. We estimate that the range of excess glacier meltwater runoff due to negative glacier mass balance in each basin constitutes {\~{}}12–53{\%} of the total basin-specific glacier meltwater runoff. These results can be used for calibration and validation of glacier mass balance models, satellite gravimetry observations, and hydrologic models needed for present and future water resource management.},
author = {Shean, David E and Bhushan, Shashank and Montesano, Paul and Rounce, David R and Arendt, Anthony and Osmanoglu, Batuhan},
doi = {10.3389/feart.2019.00363},
isbn = {2296-6463},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
pages = {363},
title = {{A Systematic, Regional Assessment of High Mountain Asia Glacier Mass Balance}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2019.00363},
volume = {7},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sheffield2013,
abstract = {AbstractThis is the first part of a three-part paper on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that evaluates the historical simulations of continental and regional climatology with a focus on a core set of 17 models. The authors evaluate the models for a set of basic surface climate and hydrological variables and their extremes for the continent. This is supplemented by evaluations for selected regional climate processes relevant to North American climate, including cool season western Atlantic cyclones, the North American monsoon, the U.S. Great Plains low-level jet, and Arctic sea ice. In general, the multimodel ensemble mean represents the observed spatial patterns of basic climate and hydrological variables but with large variability across models and regions in the magnitude and sign of errors. No single model stands out as being particularly better or worse across all analyses, although some models consistently outperform the others for certain variables across most regions and seasons and higher-resolution models tend to perform better for regional processes. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble shows a slight improvement relative to CMIP3 models in representing basic climate variables, in terms of the mean and spread, although performance has decreased for some models. Improvements in CMIP5 model performance are noticeable for some regional climate processes analyzed, such as the timing of the North American monsoon. The results of this paper have implications for the robustness of future projections of climate and its associated impacts, which are examined in the third part of the paper.},
author = {Sheffield, Justin and Barrett, Andrew P and Colle, Brian and {Nelun Fernando}, D and Fu, Rong and Geil, Kerrie L and Hu, Qi and Kinter, Jim and Kumar, Sanjiv and Langenbrunner, Baird and Lombardo, Kelly and Long, Lindsey N and Maloney, Eric and Mariotti, Annarita and Meyerson, Joyce E and Mo, Kingtse C and {David Neelin}, J and Nigam, Sumant and Pan, Zaitao and Ren, Tong and Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo and Serra, Yolande L and Seth, Anji and Thibeault, Jeanne M and Stroeve, Julienne C and Yang, Ze and Yin, Lei},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00592.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {23},
pages = {9209--9245},
title = {{North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Continental and Regional Climatology}},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Shepherd2014,
abstract = {The evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increas- ing. As a result, scientific interest is rapidly shifting from detection and attribution of global climate change to prediction of its impacts at the regional scale. However, nearly everything we have any confidence in when it comes to climate change is related to global patterns of surface temperature, which are primarily controlled by thermodynamics. In contrast, we have much less confidence in atmospheric circulation aspects of climate change, which are primarily controlled by dynamics and exert a strong control on regional climate. Model projections of circulation-related fields, including precipitation, show a wide range of pos- sible outcomes, even on centennial timescales. Sources of uncertainty include low-frequency chaotic variability and the sensi- tivity to model error of the circulation response to climate forcing. As the circulation response to external forcing appears to project strongly onto existing patterns of variability, knowledge of errors in the dynamics of variability may provide some con- straints on model projections. Nevertheless, higher scientific confidence in circulation-related aspects of climate change will be difficult to obtain. For effective decision-making, it is necessary to move to a more explicitly probabilistic, risk-based approach.},
author = {Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2253},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Projection and prediction},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {703--708},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2253},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Sherwood2015,
abstract = {The traditional forcing-feedback framework has provided an indispensable basis for discussing global climate changes. However, as analysis of model behavior has become more detailed, shortcomings and ambiguities in the framework have become more evident and physical effects unaccounted for by the traditional framework have become interesting. In particular, the new concept of adjustments, which are responses to forcings that are not mediated by the global mean temperature, has emerged. This concept, related to the older ones of climate efficacy and stratospheric adjustment, is a more physical way of capturing unique responses to specific forcings. We present a pedagogical review of the adjustment concept, why it is important, and how it can be used. The concept is particularly useful for aerosols, where it helps to organize what has become a complex array of forcing mechanisms. It also helps clarify issues around cloud and hydrological response, transient vs. equilibrium climate change, and geoengineering.},
author = {Sherwood, Steven C. and Bony, Sandrine and Boucher, Olivier and Bretherton, Chris and Forster, Piers M. and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Stevens, Bjorn},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00167.1},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {2},
pages = {217--228},
title = {{Adjustments in the forcing-feedback framework for understanding climate change}},
volume = {96},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Shi2015,
abstract = {Abstract. Changes in snow water equivalent (SWE) over Northern Hemisphere (NH) landmasses are investigated for the early (2016–2035), middle (2046–2065) and late (2080–2099) 21st century using a multi-model ensemble from 20 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The multi-model ensemble was found to provide a realistic estimate of observed NH mean winter SWE compared to the GlobSnow product. The multi-model ensemble projects significant decreases in SWE over the 21st century for most regions of the NH for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. This decrease is particularly evident over the Tibetan Plateau and North America. The only region with projected increases is eastern Siberia. Projected reductions in mean annual SWE exhibit a latitudinal gradient with the largest relative changes over lower latitudes. SWE is projected to undergo the largest decreases in the spring period where it is most strongly negatively correlated with air temperature. The reduction in snowfall amount from warming is shown to be the main contributor to projected changes in SWE during September to May over the NH.},
author = {Shi, H X and Wang, C H},
doi = {10.5194/tc-9-1943-2015},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {1943--1953},
title = {{Projected 21st century changes in snow water equivalent over Northern Hemisphere landmasses from the CMIP5 model ensemble}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/1943/2015/},
volume = {9},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Shi2017,
author = {Shi, Feng and Fang, Keyan and Xu, Chenxi and Guo, Zhengtang and Borgaonkar, H P},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3493-9},
isbn = {0038201634939},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Optimal info,South Asian summer monsoon,Tree rings,empirical mode decomposition,ensemble,interannual to centennial,optimal information extraction method,south asian summer monsoon,tree rings},
number = {7},
pages = {2803--2814},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Interannual to centennial variability of the South Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium}},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{sny17,
abstract = {AbstractRainfall over the coastal regions of western India [Western Ghats (WG)] and Myanmar [Arakan Yoma (AY)], two regions experiencing the heaviest rainfall during the Asian summer monsoon, is examined using a Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) dataset spanning 16 years. Rainfall maxima are identified on the upslope of the WG and the coastline of AY, in contrast to the offshore locations observed in previous studies. Continuous rain with slight nocturnal and afternoon–evening maxima occurs over the upslope of the WG, while an afternoon peak over the upslope and a morning peak just off the coast are found in AY, resulting in different locations of the rainfall maxima for the WG (upslope) and AY (coastline). Large rainfall amounts with small diurnal amplitudes are observed over the WG and AY under strong environmental flow perpendicular to the coastal mountains, and vice versa. Composite analysis of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) shows that the rain an...},
author = {Shige, Shoichi and Nakano, Yuki and Yamamoto, Munehisa K. and Shige, Shoichi and Nakano, Yuki and Yamamoto, Munehisa K.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0858.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Asia,Intraseasonal variability,Monsoons,Orographic effects,Rainfall,Satellite observations},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {9365--9381},
title = {{Role of orography, diurnal cycle, and intraseasonal oscillation in summer monsoon rainfall over Western Ghats and Myanmar coast}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0858.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0858.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Shimizu2016,
abstract = {Researches on the effects of the El Ni{\~{n}}o SouthernOscillation (ENSO) over precipitation and temperature, suchas drought, flood, and anomalous high or cold temperatures,have large importance because of the impacts on the environ-ment, society, and economy. Some recent studies, focusing onthe Northern Hemisphere, have indicated that the basic re-sponse of ENSO is dependent on the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The present work investigates thecombined response of the phases of these two distinct phe-nomena, ENSO and MJO, over South America. Our goal is toexplore the relative importance of the MJO to precipitationand temperature anomalies during each ENSO phase. A com-posite analysis with each combination of the phases of ENSOand MJO was performed to obtain the mean patterns of tem-perature and precipitation over South America for the monthsof November to March (austral summer) and May toSeptember (austral winter). The results showed that the pre-cipitation and temperature anomaly patterns observed duringthe ENSO phases, without the concurrent occurrence of theMJO, can be strengthened or weakened during events whereENSO and MJO occur simultaneously. Moreover, the effecton the anomaly patterns in these events depends on the MJOphase.},
author = {Shimizu, Mar{\'{i}}lia Harumi and Ambrizzi, T{\'{e}}rcio},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-015-1421-2},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {apr},
number = {1-2},
pages = {291--301},
title = {{MJO influence on ENSO effects in precipitation and temperature over South America}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-015-1421-2},
volume = {124},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Shine2015,
abstract = {Recent advances in understanding have made it possible to relate global precipitation changes more directly to emissions of particular gases and aerosols that influence climate. Using these advances, a new index is developed here called the Global Precipitation-change Potential (GPP), which measures the precipitation change per unit mass of emissions. It is recognised that precipitation changes are predicted to be highly variable in size and sign between different regions, and ultimately climate change impacts will be more dependent on these regional changes. Nevertheless, the GPP presents a useful measure of the global-mean role of emissions of individual forcing agents. Results are presented for pulse (GPPP) and sustained (GPPS) emissions for selected long- and short-lived forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, sulphate and black carbon – BC) using illustrative values of required parameters. The GPP can be used as a metric to compare the importance of emissions. This is akin to the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature-change potential (GTP) which are used to place emissions on a common scale. The GPP is further down the cause-effect chain from emissions to impacts than the GWP and GTP, and so provides an additional perspective. One key parameter needed for the GPP is the surface–atmosphere partitioning of radiative forcing. Few studies have presented results for this partitioning for different forcings, leading to more uncertainty in quantification of the GPP than the GWP or GTP. Using CO2 as references gas, the pulse and sustained GPP values for the non-CO2 species are larger than the corresponding GTP values, because the CO2 GPP is the sum of two quite strongly opposing terms. For BC emissions, the atmospheric forcing is sufficiently strong that the GPPS is opposite in sign to the GTPS. The choice of CO2 as a reference gas is problematic, especially for the GPPS at time horizons less than about 60 years, because the opposing terms make the CO2 GPPS particularly sensitive to uncertainties in input parameters. The GPP can also be used to evaluate the contribution of different emissions to precipitation change during or after a period of emissions. As an illustration, the precipitation changes resulting from emissions in 2008 (using the GPPP) and emissions sustained at 2008 levels (using the GPPS) are presented. These indicate that for periods of 20 years (after the 2008 emissions) and 50 years (for sustained emissions at 2008 levels) methane is the dominant driver of positive precipitation changes due to those emissions. For sustained emissions, the sum of the effect of the 5 species included here does not become positive until after 50 years, by which time the global surface temperature increase exceeds 1 K.},
annote = {Metric linking emissions to global precipitation change. Demonstrates why there is a delayed global precipitation response to current emissions.},
author = {Shine, K. P. and Allan, R. P. and Collins, W. J. and Fuglestvedt, J. S.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-6-525-2015},
issn = {21904987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {2},
pages = {525--540},
title = {{Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes}},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2{\&}SrcAuth=ORCID{\&}SrcApp=OrcidOrg{\&}DestLinkType=FullRecord{\&}DestApp=WOS{\_}CPL{\&}KeyUT=WOS:000365629400008{\&}KeyUID=WOS:000365629400008},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{ShortGianotti2014,
abstract = {Using weather station data, the parameters of a stationary stochastic weather model (SSWM) for daily precipitation over the contiguous United States are estimated. By construct, the model exactly captures the variance component of seasonal precipitation characteristics (intensity, occurrence, and total amount) arising from high-frequency variance. By comparing the variance of the lower-frequency accumulations (on the order of months) between the SSWM and the original measurements, potential predictability (PP) is estimated. Decomposing the variability into contributions from occurrence and intensity allows one to establish two contributing sources of total PP. Aggregated occurrence is found to have higher PP than either intensity or the seasonal total precipitation, and occurrence and intensity are found to interfere destructively when convolved into seasonal totals. It is recommended that efforts aimed at forecasting seasonal precipitation or attributing climate variability to particular processes should analyze occurrence and intensity separately to maximize signal-to-noise ratios. Significant geographical and seasonal variations exist in all PP components.},
author = {{Short Gianotti}, Daniel J. and Anderson, Bruce T. and Salvucci, Guido D.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00695.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {6904--6918},
title = {{The Potential Predictability of Precipitation Occurrence, Intensity, and Seasonal Totals over the Continental United States}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/27/18/6904/33814/The-Potential-Predictability-of-Precipitation},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{ShortGianotti2020,
abstract = {To determine hydrologic changes in a warmer climate, we impose precipitation and potential evaporation (Eo) perturbations on hydrologic response functions constructed from precipitation and satellite soil moisture observations across the United States. Despite nonlinearities in the evaporation (E) and drainage (D) responses and opposing-sign perturbations, changes in individual fluxes are superposable. Empirical frameworks (Budyko) can misrepresent changes in E/D partitioning by neglecting shifts/trends in hydrologic regime and subseasonal precipitation dynamics. E/D both increase to balance mean precipitation ((Formula presented.)) increases, and increased Eo reduces soil moisture. E and D are generally more elastic to changes in (Formula presented.) than Eo. The results suggest that (1) the impacts of regional hydrologic perturbations may allow for simple superposition/scaling, (2) changes in timing/intensity of precipitation may have substantial impacts on mean moisture states and fluxes, and (3) changes to the distribution of surface moisture states are likely more relevant for E/D partitioning than common aridity indices.},
author = {{Short Gianotti}, Daniel J. and Akbar, Ruzbeh and Feldman, Andrew F. and Salvucci, Guido D. and Entekhabi, Dara},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086498},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {aridification,climate change,hydroclimate,land atmosphere coupling},
month = {feb},
number = {5},
pages = {e2019GL086498},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Terrestrial Evaporation and Moisture Drainage in a Warmer Climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086498},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Shrestha2018,
author = {Shrestha, Sangam and Hoang, Ngoc Anh T. and Shrestha, Pallav Kumar and Bhatta, Binod},
doi = {10.30852/sb.2018.499},
isbn = {6625246425},
issn = {2185761X},
journal = {APN Science Bulletin},
number = {1},
pages = {41--51},
title = {{Climate change impact on groundwater recharge and suggested adaptation strategies for selected Asian cities}},
url = {https://www.apn-gcr.org/bulletin/?p=499},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Shugar2020,
abstract = {Glacial lakes are rapidly growing in response to climate change and glacier retreat. The role of these lakes as terrestrial storage for glacial meltwater is currently unknown and not accounted for in global sea level assessments. Here, we map glacier lakes around the world using 254,795 satellite images and use scaling relations to estimate that global glacier lake volume increased by around 48{\%}, to 156.5 km3, between 1990 and 2018. This methodology provides a near-global database and analysis of glacial lake extent, volume and change. Over the study period, lake numbers and total area increased by 53 and 51{\%}, respectively. Median lake size has increased 3{\%}; however, the 95th percentile has increased by around 9{\%}. Currently, glacial lakes hold about 0.43 mm of sea level equivalent. As glaciers continue to retreat and feed glacial lakes, the implications for glacial lake outburst floods and water resources are of considerable societal and ecological importance.},
author = {Shugar, Dan H. and Burr, Aaron and Haritashya, Umesh K. and Kargel, Jeffrey S. and Watson, C. Scott and Kennedy, Maureen C. and Bevington, Alexandre R. and Betts, Richard A. and Harrison, Stephan and Strattman, Katherine},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0855-4},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {10},
pages = {939--945},
title = {{Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0855-4},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{stj14,
author = {Siew, Jing Huey and Tangang, Fredolin T and Juneng, Liew},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3880},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {jul},
number = {9},
pages = {2872--2884},
title = {{Evaluation of CMIP5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models and projection of the Southeast Asian winter monsoon in the 21st century}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3880},
volume = {34},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Sigmond2016,
author = {Sigmond, Michael and Fyfe, John C.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3069},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {970--974},
title = {{Tropical Pacific impacts on cooling North American winters}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3069},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Siler2018JClim,
abstract = {Recent studies have shown that the change in poleward energy transport under global warming is well approximated by downgradient transport of near-surface moist static energy (MSE) modulated by the spatial pattern of radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake. Here we explore the implications of downgradient MSE transport for changes in the vertically integrated moisture flux and thus the zonal-mean pattern of evaporation minus precipitation ( E − P). Using a conventional energy balance model that we have modified to represent the Hadley cell, we find that downgradient MSE transport implies changes in E − P that mirror those simulated by comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), including a poleward expansion of the subtropical belt where E {\textgreater} P, and a poleward shift in the extratropical minimum of E − P associated with the storm tracks. The surface energy budget imposes further constraints on E and P independently: E increases almost everywhere, with relatively little spatial variability, while P must increase in the deep tropics, decrease in the subtropics, and increase in middle and high latitudes. Variations in the spatial pattern of radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake across GCMs modulate these basic features, accounting for much of the model spread in the zonal-mean response of E and P to climate change. Thus, the principle of downgradient energy transport appears to provide a simple explanation for the basic structure of hydrologic cycle changes in GCM simulations of global warming.},
annote = {extending thermodynamic contraint on P-E changes by including diffusive moist static energy transport into the tropics to represent the Hadley cell, subtropical expansion and poleward shift in storm tracks are predicted and attributed to Arctic surface warming amplification that is further modified by patterns in ocean heat uptake and local feedbacks. By applying a more physically-based estimate of evaporation, resulting precipitation changes also imply a narrowing of the ITCZ.},
author = {Siler, Nicholas and Roe, Gerard H. and Armour, Kyle C.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0081.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Eddies,Energy transport,Hadley circulation,Hydrologic cycle},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {7481--7493},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Insights into the Zonal-Mean Response of the Hydrologic Cycle to Global Warming from a Diffusive Energy Balance Model}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0081.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0081.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Siler2018ClimDyn,
abstract = {Climate models simulate an increase in global precipitation at a rate of approximately 1–3{\%} per Kelvin of global surface warming. This change is often interpreted through the lens of the atmospheric energy budget, in which the increase in global precipitation is mostly offset by an increase in net radiative cooling. Other studies have provided different interpretations from the perspective of the surface, where evaporation represents the turbulent transfer of latent heat to the atmosphere. Expanding on this surface perspective, here we derive a version of the Penman–Monteith equation that allows the change in ocean evaporation to be partitioned into a thermodynamic response to surface warming, and additional diagnostic contributions from changes in surface radiation, ocean heat uptake, and boundary-layer dynamics/relative humidity. In this framework, temperature is found to be the primary control on the rate of increase in global precipitation within model simulations of greenhouse gas warming, while the contributions from changes in surface radiation and ocean heat uptake are found to be secondary. The temperature contribution also dominates the spatial pattern of global evaporation change, leading to the largest fractional increases at high latitudes. In the surface energy budget, the thermodynamic increase in evaporation comes at the expense of the sensible heat flux, while radiative changes cause the sensible heat flux to increase. These tendencies on the sensible heat flux partly offset each other, resulting in a relatively small change in the global mean, and contributing to an impression that global precipitation is radiatively constrained.},
annote = {Surface energy perspective on global precipitation changes: thermodynamic increase in evaporation comes at the expense of the sensible heat flux, while radiative changes cause the sensible heat flux to increase, this offsetting resulting in a relatively small change in the global mean, and contributing to an impression that global precipitation is radiatively constrained.

The expected responses in surface evaporation can be understood in terms of the Penman–Monteith equation: warming leads to an increase in the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes due to an increase in the surface-air moisture gradient (required by the Clausius–Clapeyron equation), and a corresponding decrease in the surface-air temperature gradient (required by energy conservation) that predicts increases in evaporation with warming of around 1{\%}/K at low latitudes up to 5{\%}/K at high latitudes based upon 4xCO2 CMIP experiments (Siler et al., 2018b) that are initially offset by rapid adjustments and ocean heat uptake leading to a negative net available energy for evaporation.

changes in net surface radiation while of secondary importance to the overall change in ocean evaporation, account for most of the inter-model spread},
author = {Siler, Nicholas and Roe, Gerard H. and Armour, Kyle C. and Feldl, Nicole},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4359-0},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Global warming,Hydrologic cycle},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {3983--3995},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Revisiting the surface-energy-flux perspective on the sensitivity of global precipitation to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007{\%}2Fs00382-018-4359-0 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4359-0},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sillmann_2017,
abstract = {We are investigating the fast and slow responses of changes in mean and extreme precipitation to different climate forcing mechanisms, such as greenhouse gas and solar forcing, to understand whether rapid adjustments are important for extreme precipitation. To disentangle the effect of rapid adjustment to a given forcing on the overall change in extreme precipitation, we use a linear regression method that has been previously applied to mean precipitation. Equilibrium experiments with preindustrial CO2 concentrations and reduced solar constant were compared with a four times CO2 concentration experiment for 10 state-of-the-art climate models. We find that the two forcing mechanisms, greenhouse gases and solar, impose clearly different rapid adjustment signals in the mean precipitation, while such difference is difficult to discern for extreme precipitation due to large internal variability. In contrast to mean precipitation, changes in extreme precipitation scale with surface temperature trends and do not seem to depend on the forcing mechanism.},
annote = {changes in extreme precipitation scale with surface temperature and don't depend on the forcing mechanism},
author = {Sillmann, Jana and Stjern, Camilla Weum and Myhre, Gunnar and Forster, Piers M.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073229},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,climate change,climate  },
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {6383--6390},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Slow and fast responses of mean and extreme precipitation to different forcing in CMIP5 simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017gl073229},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Simpson2016,
abstract = {A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect precipitation around the world. Broadly speaking, warming increases atmospheric moisture holding capacity, intensifies moisture transports and makes sub-tropical dry regions drier and tropical and mid-to-high-latitude wet regions wetter1, 2. Extra-tropical precipitation patterns vary strongly with longitude, however, owing to the control exerted by the storm tracks and quasi-stationary highs and lows or stationary waves. Regional precipitation change will, therefore, also depend on how these aspects of the circulation respond. Current climate models robustly predict a change in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter stationary wave field that brings wetting southerlies to the west coast of North America, and drying northerlies to interior southwest North America and the eastern Mediterranean3, 4, 5. Here we show that this change in the meridional wind field is caused by strengthened zonal mean westerlies in the sub-tropical upper troposphere, which alters the character of intermediate-scale stationary waves. Thus, a robust and easily understood model response to global warming is the prime cause of these regional wind changes. However, the majority of models probably overestimate the magnitude of this response because of biases in their climatological representation of the relevant waves, suggesting that winter season wetting of the North American west coast will be notably less than projected by the multi-model mean.},
author = {Simpson, Isla R. and Seager, Richard and Ting, Mingfang and Shaw, Tiffany A.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2783},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric science,Climate and Earth system modelling,Hydrology,Projection and prediction},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {65--70},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2783},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Singarayer2017SciRep,
abstract = {The latitude of the tropical rainbelt oscillates seasonally but has also varied on millennial time-scales in response to changes in the seasonal distribution of insolation due to Earth's orbital configuration, as well as climate change initiated at high latitudes. Interpretations of palaeoclimate proxy archives often suggest hemispherically coherent variations, some proposing meridional shifts in global rainbelt position and the ‘global monsoon', while others propose interhemispherically symmetric expansion and contraction. Here, we use a unique set of climate model simulations of the last glacial cycle (120 kyr), that compares well against a compilation of precipitation proxy data, to demonstrate that while asymmetric extratropical forcings (icesheets, freshwater hosing) generally produce meridional shifts in the zonal mean rainbelt, orbital variations produce expansion/contractions in terms of the global zonal mean. This is primarily a dynamic response of the rainbelt over the oceans to regional interhemispheric temperature gradients, which is opposite to the largely local thermodynamic terrestrial response to insolation. The mode of rainbelt variation is regionally variable, depending on surface type (land or ocean) and surrounding continental configuration. This makes interpretation of precipitation-proxy records as large-scale rainbelt movement challenging, requiring regional or global data syntheses.},
annote = {orbital variations produce expansion/contractions in global zonal mean ITCZ rather than shifts which are regionally dependent},
author = {Singarayer, Joy S. and Valdes, Paul J. and Roberts, William H. G.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-09816-8},
isbn = {2045-2322},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {9382},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Ocean dominated expansion and contraction of the late Quaternary tropical rainbelt}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-09816-8 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09816-8},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Singh_2014,
abstract = {Simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with a cloud-system resolving model are used to investigate the scaling of high percentiles of the precipitation distribution (precipitation extremes) over a wide range of surface temperatures. At surface temperatures above roughly 295 K, precipitation extremes increase with warming in proportion to the increase in surface moisture, following what is termed Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. At lower temperatures, the rate of increase of precipitation extremes depends on the choice of cloud and precipitation microphysics scheme and the accumulation period, and it differs markedly from CC scaling in some cases. Precipitation extremes are found to be sensitive to the fall speeds of hydrometeors, and this partly explains the different scaling results obtained with different microphysics schemes. The results suggest that microphysics play an important role in determining the response of convective precipitation extremes to warming, particularly when ice- and mixed-phase processes are important.},
annote = {Key reference on how cloud microphysics can limit amplification of precipitation extremes},
author = {Singh, Martin S. and O'Gorman, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL061222},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6037--6044},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Influence of microphysics on the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2014gl061222},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Singh2016,
author = {Singh, Deepti},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2901},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {1},
pages = {20--22},
title = {{South Asian monsoon: Tug of war on rainfall changes}},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Singh2020,
abstract = {Plant response to elevated CO2 concentration is known to increase leaf-level water-use efficiency through a reduction in stomatal opening. Recent studies have emphasized that increased plant water-use efficiency can ameliorate the impact of drought due to climate change. However, there is a potentially counterbalancing impact due to the increased leaf area. We investigate long-term trends (1951 to 2015) of observed streamflow in the Southeastern United States (SE US) and quantify the contribution of major drivers of streamflow changes using single factor climate modeling experiments from Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5). The SE US streamflow observations do not exhibit a trend, which is in agreement with the CLM5 control experiment. Using the factorial set of CLM5 experiments, we find that increased leaf area under elevated CO2 leads to decreased runoff and completely counteracts increased runoff due to water-use efficiency gains under elevated CO2 and land-use change.},
author = {Singh, Arshdeep and Kumar, Sanjiv and Akula, Sathish and Lawrence, David M. and Lombardozzi, Danica L.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086940},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,climate models,land-use change,plant growth,water cycle,water-use efficiency},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {e2019GL086940},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Plant Growth Nullifies the Effect of Increased Water-Use Efficiency on Streamflow Under Elevated CO2 in the Southeastern United States}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086940},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Singh2013,
abstract = {Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is shown to increase rapidly with warming in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium over a wide range of surface temperatures. The increase in CAPE implies a systematic deviation of the thermal stratification from moist adiabatic that is non-negligible at high temperatures. However, cloud buoyancy remains much smaller than what CAPE would imply because entrainment is more effective in reducing buoyancy in warmer atmospheres. An entraining plume model in the limit of zero cloud buoyancy is shown to reproduce the increase in CAPE with warming if the entrainment rate is held fixed and increases in the vertical extent of convection are taken into account. These model results together with radiosonde observations are used to support a conceptual model in which entrainment plays a role in determining the thermal stratification of the tropical atmosphere. Key Points CAPE increases with warming in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium Cloud buoyancy remains small because of entrainment Observations suggest entrainment also influences tropical stratification. {\textcopyright} 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Singh, Martin S. and O'Gorman, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50796},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CAPE,entrainment},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {4398--4403},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Influence of entrainment on the thermal stratification in simulations of radiative–convective equilibrium}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50796},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Singh2020b,
abstract = {Coupling of the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon (IM) is central to seasonal summer monsoon rainfall predictions over the Indian subcontinent, although a nonstationary relationship between the two nonlinear phenomena can limit seasonal predictability. Radiative effects of volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere during large volcanic eruptions (LVEs) tend to alter ENSO evolution; however, their impact on ENSO-IM coupling remains unclear. Here, we investigate how LVEs influence the nonlinear behavior of the ENSO and IM dynamical systems using historical data, 25 paleoclimate reconstructions, last-millennium climate simulations, large-ensemble targeted climate sensitivity experiments, and advanced analysis techniques. Our findings show that LVEs promote a significantly enhanced phase-synchronization of the ENSO and IM oscillations, due to an increase in the angular frequency of ENSO. The results also shed innovative insights into the physical mechanism underlying the LVE-induced enhancement of ENSO-IM coupling and strengthen the prospects for improved seasonal monsoon predictions.},
author = {Singh, M and Krishnan, R and Goswami, B and Choudhury, A D and Swapna, P and Vellore, R and Prajeesh, A G and Sandeep, N and Venkataraman, C and Donner, R V and Marwan, N and Kurths, J},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aba8164},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {sep},
number = {38},
pages = {eaba8164},
title = {{Fingerprint of volcanic forcing on the ENSO–Indian monsoon coupling}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aba8164},
volume = {6},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Singh2019WCC,
abstract = {Abstract The South Asian summer monsoon is a complex coupled human‐natural system that poses unique challenges for understanding its evolution alongside increasing anthropogenic activities. Rapid and substantial changes in land‐use, land‐management and industrial activities over the subcontinent, and warming in the Indian Ocean, have influenced the South Asian summer monsoon. These might continue to be significant drivers in the near‐term along with rising global greenhouse gas emissions. Deciphering the region's vulnerability to climate change requires an understanding of how these anthropogenic activities, acting on a range of spatial scales, have shaped the monsoon spatially and temporally. This review summarizes historical changes in monsoon rainfall characteristics, associated mechanisms, and the role of anthropogenic forcings, focusing on subseasonal variability and extreme events. Several studies have found intensified subseasonal extremes across parts of India and an increase in spatial variability of rainfall despite an overall weakening of seasonal rainfall in the monsoon core. However, understanding these changes remains challenging because of uncertainties in observations and climate models. The mechanisms and relative influences of various anthropogenic activities, particularly on subseasonal extremes, remain relatively underexplored. Large biases in the representation of relevant processes in global climate models limit the ability to attribute historical changes and make reliable projections. Nevertheless, recent advances in modeling these processes using higher‐resolution modeling frameworks provide new tools to investigate the Indian summer monsoon's response to various anthropogenic forcings. There is an urgent need to understand how these forcings interact to shape climate variability and change in this vulnerable region.},
author = {Singh, Deepti and Ghosh, Subimal and Roxy, Mathew K. and McDermid, Sonali},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.571},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
keywords = {South Asian anthropogenic s,climate change attribution,extreme events,subseasonal variability},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {e571},
publisher = {Wiley},
title = {{Indian summer monsoon: Extreme events, historical changes, and role of anthropogenic forcings}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.571 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.571},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Singh2014,
abstract = {The South Asian summer monsoon directly affects the lives of more than 1/16th of the world's population. There is substantial variability within the monsoon season, including fluctuations between periods of heavy rainfall (wet spells) and low rainfall (dry spells). These fluctuations can cause extreme wet and dry regional conditions that adversely impact agricultural yields, wawter resources, infrastructure and human systems. Through a comprehensive statistical analysis of precipitation observations (1951-2011), we show that statistically significant decreases in peak-season precipitation over the core-monsoon region have co-occurred with statistically significant increases in daily-scale precipitation variability. Further, we find statistically significant increases in the frequency of dry spells and intensity of dry spells. These changes in extreme wet and dry spells are supported by increases in convective available potential energy and low-level moisture convergence, along with changes to the large-scale circulation aloft in the atmosphere. The observed changesin wet and dry extremes during the monsoon season are relevant for managing climate-related risks, with particular relevance for water resources, agriculture, disaster preparedness and infrastructure planning.},
author = {Singh, Deepti and Tsiang, Michael and Rajaratnam, Bala and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Singh et al.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2208},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {6},
pages = {456--461},
title = {{Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the south Asian summer monsoon season}},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Sinha2015,
author = {Sinha, Ashish and Kathayat, Gayatri and Cheng, Hai and Breitenbach, Sebastian F M and Berkelhammer, Max and Mudelsee, Manfred and Biswas, Jayant and Edwards, R L},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms7309},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {6309},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Trends and oscillations in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the last two millennia}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms7309 http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms7309},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Skinner2016,
abstract = {The early Holocene to mid-Holocene African Humid Period (AHP) is marked by widespread rainfall throughout the present-day arid Sahara. Here we simulate early Holocene and mid-Holocene climate with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 to explore the role of fall season dynamics in driving Saharan rainfall during the AHP. An enhanced summer monsoon during the AHP results in abundant fall season moisture throughout tropical Africa, particularly during the mid-Holocene. During the fall, extratropical troughs advect tropical moisture toward the Sahara in the form of concentrated plumes of water vapor and extend the Saharan rainy season into October. Fall season tropical plumes contribute up to 30{\%} of annual Saharan rainfall during the mid-Holocene. Our results suggest that tropical plumes serve as an important mechanism for enhancing Saharan rainfall during the late AHP and that further understanding of changes in tropical plumes through time may provide valuable insights into past African hydroclimate change.},
author = {Skinner, Christopher B. and Poulsen, Christopher J.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL066318},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {349--358},
title = {{The role of fall season tropical plumes in enhancing Saharan rainfall during the African Humid Period}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066318},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Skliris2016,
abstract = {Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate},
annote = {amplification of ocean salinity patterns below Clausius Clapeyron rate consistent with climate models},
author = {Skliris, Nikolaos and Zika, Jan D. and Nurser, George and Josey, Simon A. and Marsh, Robert},
doi = {10.1038/srep38752},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {38752},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius–Clapeyron rate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/srep38752 http://www.nature.com/articles/srep38752},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{skliris_et_al_2014,
author = {Skliris, Nikolaos and Marsh, Robert and Josey, Simon A. and Good, Simon A. and Liu, Chunlei and Allan, Richard P.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2131-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {709--736},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Salinity changes in the World Ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2131-7},
volume = {43},
year = {2014}
}
@misc{Smerdon2017,
abstract = {Six review articles published between 2011 and 2016 on groundwater and climate change are briefly summarized. This synopsis focuses on aspects related to predicting changes to groundwater recharge conditions, with several common conclusions between the review articles being noted. The uncertainty of distribution and trend in future precipitation from General Circulation Models (GCMs) results in varying predictions of recharge, so much so that modelling studies are often not able to predict the magnitude and direction (increase or decrease) of future recharge conditions. Evolution of modelling approaches has led to the use of multiple GCMs and hydrologic models to create an envelope of future conditions that reflects the probability distribution. The choice of hydrologic model structure and complexity, and the choice of emissions scenario, has been investigated and somewhat resolved; however, recharge results remain sensitive to downscaling methods. To overcome uncertainty and provide practical use in water management, the research community indicates that modelling at a mesoscale, somewhere between watersheds and continents, is likely ideal. Improvements are also suggested for incorporating groundwater processes within GCMs.},
author = {Smerdon, Brian D.},
booktitle = {Journal of Hydrology},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.047},
issn = {00221694},
keywords = {Climate change,Groundwater recharge},
month = {dec},
pages = {125--128},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{A synopsis of climate change effects on groundwater recharge}},
volume = {555},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Smith2020,
abstract = {Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 {\%} confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.},
author = {Smith, Christopher J and Kramer, Ryan J and Myhre, Gunnar and Alterskj{\ae}r, Kari and Collins, William and Sima, Adriana and Boucher, Olivier and Dufresne, Jean-louis and Nabat, Pierre and Michou, Martine and Yukimoto, Seiji and Cole, Jason and Paynter, David and Shiogama, Hideo and O'Connor, Fiona M. and Robertson, Eddy and Wiltshire, Andy and Andrews, Timothy and Hannay, C{\'{e}}cile and Miller, Ron and Nazarenko, Larissa and Kirkev{\aa}g, Alf and Olivi{\'{e}}, Dirk and Fiedler, Stephanie and Lewinschal, Anna and Mackallah, Chloe and Dix, Martin and Pincus, Robert and Forster, Piers M.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {9591--9618},
title = {{Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/9591/2020/},
volume = {20},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Smith2018,
abstract = {A multi-proxy paleo-data synthesis of 110 sites is presented, exploring the impact of mid- to late Holocene precipitation changes upon vegetation across Southern Hemisphere tropical South America. We show that the most significant vegetation changes occurred in southwest Amazonia and southeast Brazil, regions reliant on precipitation derived from the South American summer monsoon (SASM). A drier mid-Holocene in these regions, linked to a weaker SASM, favored more open vegetation (savannah/grasslands) than present, while increased late-Holocene precipitation drove expansion of humid forests (e.g., evergreen tropical forest in southwest Amazonia, Araucaria forests in southeast Brazil). The tropical forests of central, western and eastern Amazonia remained largely intact throughout this 6000-year period. Northeastern Brazil's climate is “antiphased” with the rest of tropical South America, but a lack of paleo-data limits our understanding of how vegetation responded to a wetter (drier) mid-(late) Holocene. From this paleo-data perspective, we conclude that ecotonal forests already close to their climatic thresholds are most vulnerable to predicted future drought, but the forest biome in the core of Amazonia is likely to be more resilient. Of greater concern are widespread deforestation and uncontrolled anthropogenic burning, which will decrease ecosystem resilience, making them more vulnerable than they might be without current anthropogenic pressures.},
author = {Smith, Richard J. and Mayle, Francis E.},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2017.89},
journal = {Quaternary Research},
number = {1},
pages = {134--155},
title = {{Impact of mid- to late Holocene precipitation changes on vegetation across lowland tropical South America: a paleo-data synthesis}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/quaternary-research/article/impact-of-mid-to-late-holocene-precipitation-changes-on-vegetation-across-lowland-tropical-south-america-a-paleodata-synthesis/6A1D56ED95A042F6B3F9207316CB690C},
volume = {89},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sniderman2019,
abstract = {Climate projections1,2,3 and observations over recent decades4,5 indicate that precipitation in subtropical latitudes declines in response to anthropogenic warming, with significant implications for food production and population sustainability. However, this conclusion is derived from emissions scenarios with rapidly increasing radiative forcing to the year 21001,2, which may represent very different conditions from both past and future ‘equilibrium' warmer climates. Here, we examine multi-century future climate simulations and show that in the Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying ceases soon after global temperature stabilizes. Our results suggest that twenty-first century Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying is not a feature of warm climates per se, but is primarily a response to rapidly rising forcing and global temperatures, as tropical sea-surface temperatures rise more than southern subtropical sea-surface temperatures under transient warming. Subtropical drying may therefore be a temporary response to rapid warming: as greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures stabilize, Southern Hemisphere subtropical regions may experience positive precipitation trends.},
author = {Sniderman, J. M. Kale and Brown, Josephine R. and Woodhead, Jon D. and King, Andrew D. and Gillett, Nathan P. and Tokarska, Katarzyna B. and Lorbacher, Katja and Hellstrom, John and Drysdale, Russell N. and Meinshausen, Malte},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0397-9},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {232--236},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0397-9},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Soares-Filho2006,
abstract = {Expansion of the cattle and soy industries in the Amazon basin has increased deforestation rates and will soon push all-weather highways into the region's core. In the face of this growing pressure, a comprehensive conservation strategy for the Amazon basin should protect its watersheds, the full range of species and ecosystem diversity, and the stability of regional climates. Here we report that protected areas in the Amazon basin--the central feature of prevailing conservation approaches--are an important but insufficient component of this strategy, based on policy-sensitive simulations of future deforestation. By 2050, current trends in agricultural expansion will eliminate a total of 40{\%} of Amazon forests, including at least two-thirds of the forest cover of six major watersheds and 12 ecoregions, releasing 32 +/- 8 Pg of carbon to the atmosphere. One-quarter of the 382 mammalian species examined will lose more than 40{\%} of the forest within their Amazon ranges. Although an expanded and enforced network of protected areas could avoid as much as one-third of this projected forest loss, conservation on private lands is also essential. Expanding market pressures for sound land management and prevention of forest clearing on lands unsuitable for agriculture are critical ingredients of a strategy for comprehensive conservation.},
author = {Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira and Nepstad, Daniel Curtis and Curran, Lisa M. and Cerqueira, Gustavo Coutinho and Garcia, Ricardo Alexandrino and Ramos, Claudia Azevedo and Voll, Eliane and McDonald, Alice and Lefebvre, Paul and Schlesinger, Peter},
doi = {10.1038/nature04389},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {mar},
number = {7083},
pages = {520--523},
title = {{Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature04389},
volume = {440},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Sobel2019,
abstract = {Aerosol cooling reduces tropical cyclone (TC) potential intensity (PI) more strongly, by about a factor of 2 per degree of sea surface temperature change, than greenhouse gas warming increases it. This study analyzes single-forcing and historical experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, aiming to understand the physical mechanisms behind this difference. Calculations are done for the tropical oceans of each hemisphere during the relevant TC seasons, emphasizing multimodel means. PI theory is used to interpret the difference in the PI response to aerosol and greenhouse gas forcings in terms of three factors. The net surface turbulent heat flux (sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes) explains half of the difference, thermodynamic efficiency explains at most a small fraction, and surface wind speed does not explain the remainder, perhaps because of the use of monthly mean data. Changes in turbulent surface heat fluxes are interpreted as responses to surface radiative flux changes in the context of the energy balance of the ocean mixed layer. Radiative kernels are used to estimate what fractions of the surface radiative flux changes are feedbacks due to temperature and water vapor changes. The greater effect of aerosol forcing occurs because shortwave forcing has a greater direct, temperature-independent component at the surface than does longwave forcing, for a forcing amplitude that provokes the same SST change. This conclusion recalls prior work on the response of precipitation to radiative forcing, and the similarities and differences between precipitation and potential intensity in this regard are discussed.},
author = {Sobel, Adam H. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Previdi, Michael},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-18-0357.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Aerosol radiative effect,Climate models,Extreme events,Greenhouse gases,Hurricanes,Tropical cyclones},
number = {17},
pages = {5511--5527},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Aerosol vs. Greenhouse Gas Effects on Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity and the Hydrologic Cycle}},
url = {http://10.0.4.151/jcli-d-18-0357.1 https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0357.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sofaer2016,
abstract = {Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.},
author = {Sofaer, Helen R. and Skagen, Susan K. and Barsugli, Joseph J. and Rashford, Benjamin S. and Reese, Gordon C. and Hoeting, Jennifer A. and Wood, Andrew W. and Noon, Barry R.},
doi = {10.1890/15-0750.1},
issn = {1051-0761},
journal = {Ecological Applications},
keywords = {Climate change impacts,Conservation planning,Hydrological projection,Prairie Pothole Region,Vulnerability assessment,Waterfowl},
month = {sep},
number = {6},
pages = {1677--1692},
title = {{Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/15-0750.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sohn2019,
abstract = {The spatial pattern of precipitation responses to CO 2 concentration increases significantly influences global weather and climate variability by altering the location of tropical heating in a warmer climate. In this study, we analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections of tropical Pacific rainfall response to quadrupled increase of CO 2 . We found that the precipitation changes to the CO 2 concentration increase cannot be interpreted by a weakening or strengthening of large-scale east–west coupling across the tropical Pacific basin, i.e., Walker circulation. By calculating the water vapor transport, we suggest instead that different responses of the Walker and Hadley circulations to the increasing CO 2 concentration shape the details of the spatial pattern of precipitation in the tropical Pacific. Therefore, more regionally perturbed circulations over the tropical Pacific, which is influenced by the mean state change in the tropical Pacific and the enhanced precipitation outside the tropical Pacific, lead to greater increases in precipitation in the western equatorial Pacific as compared to the eastern tropical Pacific in a warmer climate.},
author = {Sohn, Byung Ju and Yeh, Sang Wook and Lee, Ahreum and Lau, William K.M.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-08913-8},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {1108},
pmid = {30846694},
title = {{Regulation of atmospheric circulation controlling the tropical Pacific precipitation change in response to CO2 increases}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08913-8},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Solander2018,
abstract = {The Colorado River basin (CRB) is one of the most important watersheds for energy, water, and food security in the United States. CRB water supports 15{\%} of U.S. food production, more than 50 GW of electricity capacity, and one of the fastest growing populations in the United States. Energy–water–food nexus impacts from climate change are projected to increase in the CRB. These include a higher incidence of extreme events, widespread snow-to-rain regime shifts, and a higher frequency and magnitude of climate-driven disturbances. Here, we empirically show how the historical annual streamflow maximum and hydrograph centroid timing relate to temperature, precipitation, and snow. In addition, we show how these hydroclimatic relationships vary with elevation and how the elevation dependence has changed over this historical observational record. We find temperature and precipitation have a relatively weak relation (|r| {\textless} 0.3) to interannual variations in streamflow timing and extremes at low elevations ({\textless}1500 m), but a relatively strong relation (|r| {\textgreater} 0.5) at high elevations ({\textgreater}2300 m) where more snow occurs in the CRB. The threshold elevation where this relationship is strongest (|r| {\textgreater} 0.5) is moving uphill at a rate of up to 4.8 m yr−1 (p = 0.11) and 6.1 m yr−1 (p = 0.01) for temperature and precipitation, respectively. Based on these findings, we hypothesize where warming and precipitation-related streamflow changes are likely to be most severe using a watershed-scale vulnerability map to prioritize areas for further research and to inform energy, water, and food resource management in the CRB.},
author = {Solander, Kurt C. and Bennett, Katrina E. and Fleming, Sean W. and Gutzler, David S. and Hopkins, Emily M. and Middleton, Richard S.},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-18-0012.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate variability,Hydrology,Hydrometeorology,Regression analysis,Time series},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {1637--1650},
title = {{Interactions between Climate Change and Complex Topography Drive Observed Streamflow Changes in the Colorado River Basin}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0012.1},
volume = {19},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Solman2016b,
abstract = {In this study, a set of five reanalysis datasets [ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R2), MERRA, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)] is used to provide a robust estimation of precipitation change in the middle-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere during the last three decades. Based on several metrics accounting for the eddy activity and moisture availability, an attempt is also made to identify the dynamical mechanisms triggering these changes during extended summer and winter seasons. To that aim, a weighted reanalysis ensemble is built using the inverse of the variance as weighting factors for each variable. Results showed that the weighted reanalysis ensemble reproduced the observed precipitation changes at high and middle latitudes during the two seasons, as depicted by the GPCP dataset. For the extended summer season, precipitation changes were dynamically consistent with changes in the eddy activity, attributed mostly to ozone depletion. For the extended winter season, the eddy activity and moisture availability both contributed to the precipitation changes, with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases being the main driver of the climate change signal. In addition, output from a five-member ensemble of the high-resolution GFDL CM2.5 for the period 1979-2010 was used in order to explore the capability of the model in reproducing both the observed precipitation change and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The model was able to capture the rainfall change signal. However, the increased availability of moisture from the lower levels controls the precipitation change during both summer and winter.},
author = {Solman, Silvina A. and Orlanski, Isidoro},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0588.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atm/ocean structure/phenomena,Circulation/dynamics,Databases,Extratropical cyclones,Large-scale motions,Models and modeling,Observational techniques and algorithms,Precipitation,Reanalysis data,Trends,Variability},
number = {5},
pages = {1673--1687},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Climate change over the extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets}},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Solman2014,
abstract = {AbstractSeveral studies have documented the poleward shift of the midlatitude westerly jet of the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades of the twentieth century, mainly during the warm season. In this work the consistency between this change and the seasonal changes in frontal activity and precipitation are explored. The authors also attempt to identify the correlation between frontal activity and precipitation changes.Frontal activity is defined using the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset for the period 1962?2001 as the temperature gradient times the relative vorticity at 850 hPa. Considering cyclonic systems only, an enhancement of the frontal activity at high latitudes in the last two decades is apparent. However, the pattern of frontal activity change is not zonally symmetric, with the zonal asymmetries consistent with the climate change signal of the zonal anomaly of the 300-hPa geopotential height.The pattern of precipitation change, showing midlatitude drying and high-latitude moistening, is consistent with the pattern of the frontal activity change, explaining to a large extent both the zonal mean and asymmetric rainfall changes. This consistency is also found in terms of the year-to-year variability of the zonal mean at both mid- and high latitudes. However, the frontal activity has a complex relationship with rainfall (not every frontal system is associated with rainfall events), and this consistency is unclear over some specific regions.Results presented here highlight the robust link between the change in the asymmetric component of the upper-level circulation, the frontal activity, and rainfall over the mid- to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.},
author = {Solman, Silvina A. and Orlanski, Isidoro},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-13-0105.1},
issn = {0022-4928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {539--552},
title = {{Poleward Shift and Change of Frontal Activity in the Southern Hemisphere over the Last 40 Years}},
volume = {71},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Song2014,
author = {Song, Fengfei and Zhou, Tianjun and Qian, Yun},
doi = {10.1002/2013GL058705},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {596--603},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models}},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{sfr16,
abstract = {The multimodel Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) identified the semiarid Southern Great Plains (SGP) as a hotspot for land–atmosphere (LA) coupling and, consequently, land-derived temperature and precipitation predictability. The area including and surrounding the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) SGP Climate Research Facility has in particular been well studied in the context of LA coupling. Observation-based studies suggest a coupling signal that is much weaker than modeled, if not elusive. Using North American Regional Reanalysis and North American Land Data Assimilation System data, this study provides a 36-yr (1979–2014) climatology of coupling for ARM-SGP that 1) unifies prior interdisciplinary efforts and 2) isolates the origin of the (weak) coupling signal. Specifically, the climatology of a prominent convective triggering potential–low-level humidity index (CTP–HIlow) coupling classification is linked to corresponding synoptic–mesoscale weather and atmospheric moisture budget analyses. The CTP–HIlow classification defines a dry-advantage regime for which convective triggering is preferentially favored over drier-than-average soils as well as a wet-advantage regime for which convective triggering is preferentially favored over wetter-than-average soils. This study shows that wet-advantage days are a result of horizontal moisture flux convergence over the region, and conversely, dry-advantage days are a result of zonal and vertical moisture flux divergence. In this context, the role of the land is nominal relative to that of atmospheric forcing. Surface flux partitioning, however, can play an important role in modulating diurnal precipitation cycle phase and amplitude and it is shown that soil moisture and sensible heat flux are significantly correlated with both occurrence and intensity of afternoon peak precipitation.},
author = {Song, Hyo-Jong and Ferguson, Craig R and Roundy, Joshua K},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-15-0045.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {541--556},
title = {{Land–Atmosphere Coupling at the Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Field Site and Its Role in Anomalous Afternoon Peak Precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0045.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0045.1},
volume = {17},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Song2011,
abstract = {An efficient two-moment microphysics parameterization scheme for convective clouds is developed to improve the representation of convective clouds and its interactions with stratiform clouds and aerosol in global climate models (GCMs). The scheme explicitly treats mass mixing ratio and number concentration of four hydrometeor species (cloud water, cloud ice, rain, and snow) and describes several microphysical processes, including autoconversion, self-collection, collection between hydrometeor species, freezing, cloud ice nucleation, droplet activation, and sedimentation. Thus this physically based scheme is suitable for investigating the interaction between convection and aerosol and the indirect aerosol effect on climate. An evaluation of the scheme in the single-column version of NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 3.5 (CAM3.5) with the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) data shows that the simulation of cloud microphysical properties in convective core is significantly improved, indicating that the new parameterization describes the microphysical processes in convection reasonably well. The contribution from convective detrainment to large-scale cloud ice and liquid water budgets is enhanced greatly. With more realistic convective cloud microphysical properties and their detrainment, the surface stratiform precipitation, which is seriously underestimated in the model, is increased by a factor of roughly 2.5, and therefore is much closer to the observations. In addition, the simulations of net surface shortwave radiation flux, OLR, specific humidity, and temperature are also improved to some extent. Sensitivity experiments show that the microphysics scheme is moderately sensitive to model vertical resolution, updraft vertical velocity, and numerics, but less so to the lower boundary conditions of hydrometeor budget equations. The experiments with climatological aerosol distribution show that convective precipitation is suppressed with increasing aerosol amount, consistent with some available observations. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.},
author = {Song, Xiaoliang and Zhang, Guang J.},
doi = {10.1029/2010JD014833},
issn = {01480227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jan},
number = {D2},
pages = {D02201},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Microphysics parameterization for convective clouds in a global climate model: Description and single-column model tests}},
volume = {116},
year = {2011}
}
@article{doi:10.1177/0959683608095576,
abstract = {Sontakke and Singh (The Holocene 6, 315—31, 1996) developed instrumental period summer monsoon (June—September total) rainfall series (1813—1995) for six homogeneous zones and all of India using 306 raingauge stations. This reconstruction has been revised and updated. Besides reconstructing backward and updating to 2005 the longest possible summer monsoon rainfall series (1813—2005), post-monsoon (October— December total) and annual rainfall series have also been developed for seven homogeneous zones: North Mountainous India (NMI), Northwest India (NWI), North Central India (NCI), Northeast India (NEI), West Peninsular India (WPI), East Peninsular India (EPI), South Peninsular India (SPI), and the whole country using data from 316 well-spread stations. The different series are reported here. The underlying mechanism of the possible cause of the recent decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and increasing trend in post-monsoon rainfall is described.},
author = {Sontakke, N A and Singh, Nityanand and Singh, H N},
doi = {10.1177/0959683608095576},
journal = {The Holocene},
number = {7},
pages = {1055--1066},
title = {{Instrumental period rainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813–2005): revised reconstruction, update and analysis}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683608095576},
volume = {18},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Soong2020,
abstract = {Despite the fundamental importance of soil temperature for Earth's carbon and energy budgets, ecosystem functioning, and agricultural production, studies of climate change impacts on soil processes have mainly relied on air temperatures, assuming they are accurate proxies for soil temperatures. We evaluated changes in soil temperature, moisture, and air temperature predicted over the 21st century from 14 Earth system models. The model ensemble predicted a global mean soil warming of 2.3 ± 0.7 and 4.5 ± 1.1 °C at 100-cm depth by the end of the 21st century for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Soils at 100 cm warmed at almost exactly the same rate as near-surface ({\~{}}1 cm) soils. Globally, soil warming was slightly slower than air warming above it, and this difference increased over the 21st century. Regionally, soil warming kept pace with air warming in tropical and arid regions but lagged air warming in colder regions. Thus, air warming is not necessarily a good proxy for soil warming in cold regions where snow and ice impede the direct transfer of sensible heat from the atmosphere to soil. Despite this effect, high-latitude soils were still projected to warm faster than elsewhere, albeit at slower rates than surface air above them. When compared with observations, the models were able to capture soil thermal dynamics in most biomes, but some failed to recreate thermal properties in permafrost regions. Particularly in cold regions, using soil warming rather than air warming projections may improve predictions of temperature-sensitive soil processes.},
author = {Soong, Jennifer L. and Phillips, Claire L. and Ledna, Catherine and Koven, Charles D. and Torn, Margaret S.},
doi = {10.1029/2019JG005266},
issn = {21698961},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences},
keywords = {CMIP5,Deep s,Soil Moisture,Soil warming,Temperature},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {e2019JG005266},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005266},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sooraj2015a,
abstract = {circulation) on future ASM rainfall changes. The former component wins out over the later one and leads to the intensification of Indian monsoon rainfall in the CMIP5 projections. However, the diagnostics further show a con-siderable offset due to the dynamic component.},
author = {Sooraj, K. P. and Terray, Pascal and Mujumdar, M.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2257-7},
isbn = {0930-7575},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Asian summer monsoon,Atmospheric stability,Meridional gradient in deep tropospheric heating,Thermodynamic and dynamic components},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {233--252},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Global warming and the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation: assessments from the CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2257-7 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2257-7},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Souri2020,
abstract = {A number of human-induced elements contribute to influencing the intensity of tropical cyclones and prolonging their lifetime. Not only do ocean heat content, large-scale weather patterns, and surface properties affect the amount of release of energy, but the modulation from aerosol particles on cloud properties is also present. With Hurricane Harvey (2017) fairly isolated over Texas, there was a unique opportunity to study the indirect impact of aerosols on the amount of record-breaking rainfall over the greater Houston area. Due to the non-linear processes involved in clouds microstructure, aerosol properties and the variability associated with the atmospheric environment, the quantification of the response of storms to aerosols is complex. To this end, we first reproduce Harvey using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a 3D-var assimilation framework that incorporates satellites, radio occultation, dropsondes, and surface measurements. We then study the aerosol indirect impacts using spectral bin microphysics in conjunction with aerosol properties simulated from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) model leveraging online aerosol microphysics with anthropogenic emissions (SP) and without ones (SC). In the vicinity of Harvey's landfall, the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei at 1{\%} supersaturation using the anthropogenic emissions is found to be one order of magnitude (855 cm−3) larger than those simulated with only natural emissions (83 cm−3). We observed that a narrow plume of anthropogenic aerosols from western Texas was transported over the area at the moment when deep convection initiated, accelerating updrafts through releasing more latent heat, which in turn, resulted in an average enhancement of precipitation by 25 mm ({\~{}} 8{\%}) over the greater Houston area. We observed a second peak at the right tail of the distribution of differences between experiments, which is an indication of the presence of more extreme rainfall over the area. As such, studies on the impact of aerosol emissions controls on exacerbating severe weather should be more encouraged.},
author = {Souri, Amir H. and Choi, Yunsoo and Kodros, John K. and Jung, Jia and Shpund, Jacob and Pierce, Jeffrey R. and Lynn, Barry H. and Khain, Alexander and Chance, Kelly},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104965},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
month = {sep},
pages = {104965},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Response of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall to anthropogenic aerosols: A sensitivity study based on spectral bin microphysics with simulated aerosols}},
volume = {242},
year = {2020}
}
@article{stbsrl17,
abstract = {In this work we performed an analysis on the impacts of blocking episodes on seasonal and annual European precipitation and the associated physical mechanisms. Distinct domains were considered in detail taking into account different blocking center positions spanning between the Atlantic and western Russia. Significant positive precipitation anomalies are found for southernmost areas while generalized negative anomalies (up to 75 {\{}{\%}{\}} in some areas) occur in large areas of central and northern Europe. This dipole of anomalies is reversed when compared to that observed during episodes of strong zonal flow conditions. We illustrate that the location of the maximum precipitation anomalies follows quite well the longitudinal positioning of the blocking centers and discuss regional and seasonal differences in the precipitation responses. To better understand the precipitation anomalies, we explore the blocking influence on cyclonic activity. The results indicate a split of the storm-tracks north and south of blocking systems, leading to an almost complete reduction of cyclonic centers in northern and central Europe and increases in southern areas, where cyclone frequency doubles during blocking episodes. However, the underlying processes conductive to the precipitation anomalies are distinct between northern and southern European regions, with a significant role of atmospheric instability in southern Europe, and moisture availability as the major driver at higher latitudes. This distinctive underlying process is coherent with the characteristic patterns of latent heat release from the ocean associated with blocked and strong zonal flow patterns. We also analyzed changes in the full range of the precipitation distribution of several regional sectors during blocked and zonal days. Results show that precipitation reductions in the areas under direct blocking influence are driven by a substantial drop in the frequency of moderate rainfall classes. Contrarily, southwards of blocking systems, frequency increases in moderate to extreme rainfall classes largely determine the precipitation anomaly in the accumulated totals. In this context, we show the close relationship between the more intrinsic torrential nature of Mediterranean precipitation regimes and the role of blocking systems in increasing the probability of extreme events.},
author = {Sousa, Pedro M. and Trigo, Ricardo M. and Barriopedro, David and Soares, Pedro M.M. and Ramos, Alexandre M. and Liberato, Margarida L.R.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3132-5},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atmospheric blocking,Europe,PDF,Precipitation,Weather regimes},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1141--1160},
title = {{Responses of European precipitation distributions and regimes to different blocking locations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3132-5},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Spencer2016,
abstract = {The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA{\_}WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756 × 103 km2 (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-level rise. Three key drivers of wetland response to sea-level rise are considered: 1) rate of sea-level rise relative to tidal range; 2) lateral accommodation space; and 3) sediment supply. The model is tuned by expert knowledge, parameterised with quantitative data where possible, and validated against mapping associated with two large-scale mangrove and saltmarsh vulnerability studies. It is applied across 12,148 coastal segments (mean length 85 km) to the year 2100. The model provides better-informed macro-scale projections of likely patterns of future coastal wetland losses across a range of sea-level rise scenarios and varying assumptions about the construction of coastal dikes to prevent sea flooding (as dikes limit lateral accommodation space and cause coastal squeeze). With 50 cm of sea-level rise by 2100, the model predicts a loss of 46-59{\%} of global coastal wetland stocks. A global coastal wetland loss of 78{\%} is estimated under high sea-level rise (110 cm by 2100) accompanied by maximum dike construction. The primary driver for high vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is coastal squeeze, a consequence of long-term coastal protection strategies. Under low sea-level rise (29 cm by 2100) losses do not exceed ca. 50{\%} of the total stock, even for the same adverse dike construction assumptions. The model results confirm that the widespread paradigm that wetlands subject to a micro-tidal regime are likely to be more vulnerable to loss than macro-tidal environments. Countering these potential losses will require both climate mitigation (a global response) to minimise sea-level rise and maximisation of accommodation space and sediment supply (a regional response) on low-lying coasts.},
author = {Spencer, Thomas and Schuerch, Mark and Nicholls, Robert J. and Hinkel, Jochen and Lincke, Daniel and Vafeidis, A.T. and Reef, Ruth and McFadden, Loraine and Brown, Sally},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.12.018},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {Accommodation space,Sea-level rise,Tidal wetlands,Wetland loss,Wetland transitions,Wetland vulnerability},
month = {apr},
pages = {15--30},
title = {{Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818115301879},
volume = {139},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sperry2016,
abstract = {Ecosystem models have difficulty predicting plant drought responses, partially from uncertainty in the stomatal response to water deficits in soil and atmosphere. We evaluate a ‘supply–demand' theory for water-limited stomatal behavior that avoids the typical scaffold of empirical response functions. The premise is that canopy water demand is regulated in proportion to threat to supply posed by xylem cavitation and soil drying. The theory was implemented in a trait-based soil–plant–atmosphere model. The model predicted canopy transpiration (E), canopy diffusive conductance (G), and canopy xylem pressure (Pcanopy) from soil water potential (Psoil) and vapor pressure deficit (D). Modeled responses to D and Psoil were consistent with empirical response functions, but controlling parameters were hydraulic traits rather than coefficients. Maximum hydraulic and diffusive conductances and vulnerability to loss in hydraulic conductance dictated stomatal sensitivity and hence the iso- to anisohydric spectrum of regulation. The model matched wide fluctuations in G and Pcanopy across nine data sets from seasonally dry tropical forest and pi{\~{n}}on–juniper woodland with {\textless} 26{\%} mean error. Promising initial performance suggests the theory could be useful in improving ecosystem models. Better understanding of the variation in hydraulic properties along the root–stem–leaf continuum will simplify parameterization.},
author = {Sperry, John S. and Wang, Yujie and Wolfe, Brett T. and Mackay, D. Scott and Anderegg, William R. L. and McDowell, Nate G. and Pockman, William T.},
doi = {10.1111/nph.14059},
issn = {0028-646X},
journal = {New Phytologist},
keywords = {climate change drought,hydraulic limitation,modeling climate change impacts,plant drought responses,plant water transport,stomatal regulation,xylem cavitation,xylem transport},
month = {nov},
number = {3},
pages = {577--589},
pmid = {27329266},
title = {{Pragmatic hydraulic theory predicts stomatal responses to climatic water deficits}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nph.14059},
volume = {212},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Spracklen2015,
abstract = {Many modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation of Amazonia would lead to decreased rainfall. Geosynchronous visible and infrared satellite data over southwest Brazil are analyzed with respect to percent cloudiness, and rain estimates are analyzed from both the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Special Sensor Microwave Imager. The studies conclude that in the dry season, when the effects of the surface are not overwhelmed by synoptic-scale weather disturbances, shallow cumulus cloudiness, deep convective cloudiness, and rainfall occurrence all are larger over the deforested and nonforested (savanna) regions than over areas of dense forest. This paper speculates that this difference is in response to a local circulation initiated by the differential heating of the region's varying forestation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of cloudiness reveals a shift in the onset of convection toward afternoon hours in the deforested and toward the morning hours in the savanna regions when compared to the neighboring forested regions. Analysis of 14 years of monthly estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager data revealed that in August there was a pattern of higher monthly rainfall amounts over the deforested region. Analysis of available rain gauge data showed an increase in regional rainfall since deforestation began around 1978.},
author = {Spracklen, D. V. and Garcia-Carreras, L.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL066063},
isbn = {1520-0442},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate model,deforestation,rainfall},
number = {21},
pages = {9546--9552},
pmid = {22951966},
title = {{The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall}},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Sprenger2019,
abstract = {The time that water takes to travel through the terrestrial hydrological cycle and the critical zone is of great interest in Earth system sciences with broad implications for water quality and quantity. Most water age studies to date have focused on individual compartments (or sub-disciplines) of the hydrological cycle such as the unsaturated or saturated zone, vegetation, atmosphere, or rivers. However, recent studies have shown that processes at the interfaces between the hydrological compartments (e.g., soil-atmosphere or soil-groundwater) govern the age distribution of the water fluxes between these compartments and thus can greatly affect water travel times. The broad variation from complete to nearly absent mixing of water at these interfaces affects the water ages in the compartments. This is especially the case for the highly heterogeneous critical zone between the top of the vegetation and the bottom of the groundwater storage. Here, we review a wide variety of studies about water ages in the critical zone and provide (1) an overview of new prospects and challenges in the use of hydrological tracers to study water ages, (2) a discussion of the limiting assumptions linked to our lack of process understanding and methodological transfer of water age estimations to individual disciplines or compartments, and (3) a vision for how to improve future interdisciplinary efforts to better understand the feedbacks between the atmosphere, vegetation, soil, groundwater, and surface water that control water ages in the critical zone.},
author = {Sprenger, Matthias and Stumpp, Christine and Weiler, Markus and Aeschbach, Werner and Allen, Scott T. and Benettin, Paolo and Dubbert, Maren and Hartmann, Andreas and Hrachowitz, Markus and Kirchner, James W. and McDonnell, Jeffrey J. and Orlowski, Natalie and Penna, Daniele and Pfahl, Stephan and Rinderer, Michael and Rodriguez, Nicolas and Schmidt, Maximilian and Werner, Christiane},
doi = {10.1029/2018RG000633},
issn = {8755-1209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {critical Zone,stable isotopes,terrestrial water cycle,tracer hydrology,travel times,water ages},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {800--834},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},
title = {{The Demographics of Water: A Review of Water Ages in the Critical Zone}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018RG000633},
volume = {57},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Staal2018,
abstract = {Tree transpiration in the Amazon may enhance rainfall for downwind forests. Until now it has been unclear how this cascading effect plays out across the basin. Here, we calculate local forest transpiration and the subsequent trajectories of transpired water through the atmosphere in high spatial and temporal detail. We estimate that one-third of Amazon rainfall originates within its own basin, of which two-thirds has been transpired. Forests in the southern half of the basin contribute most to the stability of other forests in this way, whereas forests in the south-western Amazon are particularly dependent on transpired-water subsidies. These forest-rainfall cascades buffer the effects of drought and reveal a mechanism by which deforestation can compromise the resilience of the Amazon forest system in the face of future climatic extremes.},
author = {Staal, Arie and Tuinenburg, Obbe A. and Bosmans, Joyce H. C. and Holmgren, Milena and van Nes, Egbert H. and Scheffer, Marten and Zemp, Delphine Clara and Dekker, Stefan C.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0177-y},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {539--543},
title = {{Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0177-y},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Staal2015,
abstract = {The south-eastern Amazon rainforest is subject to ongoing deforestation and is expected to become drier due to climate change. Recent analyses of the distribution of tree cover in the tropics show three modes that have been interpreted as representing alternative stable states: forest, savanna and treeless states. This situation implies that a change in environmental conditions, such as in the climate, could cause critical transitions from a forest towards a savanna ecosystem. Shifts to savanna might also occur if perturbations such as deforestation exceed a critical threshold. Recovering the forest would be difficult as the savanna will be stabilized by a feedback between tree cover and fire. Here we explore how environmental changes and perturbations affect the forest by using a simple model with alternative tree-cover states. We focus on the synergistic effects of precipitation reduction and deforestation on the probability of regime shifts in the south-eastern Amazon rainforest. The analysis indicated that in a large part of the south-eastern Amazon basin rainforest and savanna could be two alternative states, although massive forest dieback caused by mean-precipitation reduction alone is unlikely. However, combinations of deforestation and climate change triggered up to 6.6 times as many local regime shifts than the two did separately, causing large permanent forest losses in the studied region. The results emphasize the importance of reducing deforestation rates in order to prevent a climate-induced dieback of the south-eastern Amazon rainforest.},
author = {Staal, Arie and Dekker, Stefan C. and Hirota, Marina and van Nes, Egbert H.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecocom.2015.01.003},
isbn = {1476-945X},
issn = {1476945X},
journal = {Ecological Complexity},
keywords = {Bistability,Climate change,Critical transitions,Fire,Regime shifts,Tipping points},
pages = {65--75},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Synergistic effects of drought and deforestation on the resilience of the south-eastern Amazon rainforest}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2015.01.003},
volume = {22},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Staal2020,
abstract = {Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks at different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resilience to deforestation and response to climate change. Here, we determine the emergent hysteresis from local-scale tipping points and regional-scale forest-rainfall feedbacks across the tropics under the recent climate and a severe climate-change scenario. By integrating remote sensing, a global hydrological model, and detailed atmospheric moisture tracking simulations, we find that forest-rainfall feedback expands the geographic range of possible forest distributions, especially in the Amazon. The Amazon forest could partially recover from complete deforestation, but may lose that resilience later this century. The Congo forest currently lacks resilience, but is predicted to gain it under climate change, whereas forests in Australasia are resilient under both current and future climates. Our results show how tropical forests shape their own distributions and create the climatic conditions that enable them.},
author = {Staal, Arie and Fetzer, Ingo and Wang-Erlandsson, Lan and Bosmans, Joyce H. C. and Dekker, Stefan C. and van Nes, Egbert H. and Rockstr{\"{o}}m, Johan and Tuinenburg, Obbe A.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-18728-7},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {4978},
pmid = {33020475},
title = {{Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18728-7},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Stanford2017,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Abstract. The High Altitude Ice Crystals – High Ice Water Content (HAIC-HIWC) joint field campaign produced aircraft retrievals of total condensed water content (TWC), hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSDs), and vertical velocity (w) in high ice water content regions of mature and decaying tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The resulting dataset is used here to explore causes of the commonly documented high bias in radar reflectivity within cloud-resolving simulations of deep convection. This bias has been linked to overly strong simulated convective updrafts lofting excessive condensate mass but is also modulated by parameterizations of hydrometeor size distributions, single particle properties, species separation, and microphysical processes. Observations are compared with three Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of an observed MCS using different microphysics parameterizations while controlling for w, TWC, and temperature. Two popular bulk microphysics schemes (Thompson and Morrison) and one bin microphysics scheme (fast spectral bin microphysics) are compared. For temperatures between −10 and −40 °C and TWC  {\textgreater}  1 g m−3, all microphysics schemes produce median mass diameters (MMDs) that are generally larger than observed, and the precipitating ice species that controls this size bias varies by scheme, temperature, and w. Despite a much greater number of samples, all simulations fail to reproduce observed high-TWC conditions ( {\textgreater}  2 g m−3) between −20 and −40 °C in which only a small fraction of condensate mass is found in relatively large particle sizes greater than 1 mm in diameter. Although more mass is distributed to large particle sizes relative to those observed across all schemes when controlling for temperature, w, and TWC, differences with observations are significantly variable between the schemes tested. As a result, this bias is hypothesized to partly result from errors in parameterized hydrometeor PSD and single particle properties, but because it is present in all schemes, it may also partly result from errors in parameterized microphysical processes present in all schemes. Because of these ubiquitous ice size biases, the frequently used microphysical parameterizations evaluated in this study inherently produce a high bias in convective reflectivity for a wide range of temperatures, vertical velocities, and TWCs.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Stanford, McKenna W. and Varble, Adam and Zipser, Ed and Strapp, J. Walter and Leroy, Delphine and Schwarzenboeck, Alfons and Potts, Rodney and Protat, Alain},
doi = {10.5194/acp-17-9599-2017},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {9599--9621},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{A ubiquitous ice size bias in simulations of tropical deep convection}},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Staten2019,
abstract = {The width of the tropical Hadley circulation (HC) has garnered intense interest in recent decades, owing to the emerging evidence for its expansion in observations and models and to the anticipated impacts on surface climate in its descending branches. To better clarify the causes and impacts of tropical widening, this work generalizes the zonal mean HC to the regional level by defining meridional overturning cells (RC) using the horizontally divergent wind. The edges of the RC are more closely connected to surface hydroclimate than more traditional metrics of regional tropical width (such as the sea level pressure ridge) or even than the zonal mean HC. Simulations reveal a robust weakening of the RC in response to greenhouse gas increases, along with a widening of the RC in some regions. For example, simulated widening of the zonal mean HC in the Southern Hemisphere appears to arise in large part from regional overturning anomalies over the Eastern Pacific, where there is no clear RC. Unforced interannual variability in the position of the zonal mean HC edge is associated with a more general regional widening. These distinct regional signatures suggest that the RCs may be well suited for the attribution of observed circulation trends. The spatial pattern of regional meridional overturning trends in reanalyses corresponds more closely to the pattern associated with unforced interannual variability than to the pattern associated with CO2 forcing, suggesting a large contribution of natural variability to the recent observed tropical widening trends.},
author = {Staten, Paul W. and Grise, Kevin M. and Davis, Sean M. and Karnauskas, Kristopher and Davis, Nicholas},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD030100},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Hadley cell,atmospheric dynamics,climate change,climate dynamics,climate variability,tropical width},
number = {12},
pages = {6104--6119},
title = {{Regional Widening of Tropical Overturning: Forced Change, Natural Variability, and Recent Trends}},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Stechmann2017,
abstract = {In the tropics, rainfall is coupled with atmospheric dynamics in ways that are not fully understood, and often different mechanisms are proposed to underlie different modes of variability. Here it is shown that a unified model with a simple form can produce many different modes of variability. In particular, this includes the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and convectively coupled equatorial waves. The model predicts the length scales, time scales, structures, and spatiotemporal variability of these modes reasonably well for a simple model. Furthermore, the model produces a background spectrum of rainfall that resembles spatiotemporal red noise and is only weakly coupled with wave dynamics. The full spectrum is also shown to be shaped by antiresonance, whereby rainfall oscillations are prevented from occurring at the oscillation frequencies of dry waves. To produce all of these aspects simultaneously, a key factor is differing roles of lower and middle tropospheric water vapor.},
author = {Stechmann, Samuel N. and Hottovy, Scott},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075754},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {10713--10724},
title = {{Unified Spectrum of Tropical Rainfall and Waves in a Simple Stochastic Model}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL075754},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Stephens2018,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This study provides observational evidence for feedbacks that amplify the short-term hydrological response associated with the warm phase of the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation. Our analyses make use of a comprehensive set of independent satellite observations collected over decades to show that much larger local changes to cloud ({\~{}}50{\%}/K) and precipitation ({\~{}}60{\%}/K) occur than would be expected from the guidance of Clausius-Clapeyron theory ({\~{}}7{\%}/K). This amplification comes from atmospheric feedbacks involving shifts in the patterns of latent and radiative heating that mutually act on the dynamics enhancing changes to the hydrological cycle. We also confirm the existence of an opposing negative flux feedback at the ocean surface, driven largely by solar radiation changes, that opposes the surface warming. Estimates of the strength of this and other feedback factors associated with warming in the Ni{\~{n}}o3 region are provided from observations. These observations are also used to examine comparative processes and feedbacks in model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.},
author = {Stephens, Graeme L. and Hakuba, Maria Z. and Webb, Mark J. and Lebsock, Matthew and Yue, Qing and Kahn, Brian H. and Hristova-Veleva, Svetla and Rapp, Anita D. and Stubenrauch, Claudia J. and Elsaesser, Gregory S. and Slingo, Julia},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL077598},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {4361--4370},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Regional Intensification of the Tropical Hydrological Cycle During ENSO}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl077598},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Stephens2015RevGeophys,
abstract = {• Reviews our understanding of the Earths albedo and factors that shape it • The albedo of Earth is highly regulated mostly by clouds • The regulation has surprising consequences, and the implications are discussed},
annote = {The albedo of Earth - hemispheric symmetry in albedo due to brighter northern hemisphere surface but more clouds in southern hemisphere; interhemispheric radiative imbalance of 0.6 Wm-2 explained by outgoing longwave (higher in north). Models do not consistently simulate the interhemispheric differences and represent unrealistic seasonal cycles in albedo and overestimate its interannual variability.},
author = {Stephens, Graeme L. and O'Brien, Denis and Webster, Peter J. and Pilewski, Peter and Kato, Seiji and Li, Jui Lin},
doi = {10.1002/2014RG000449},
isbn = {8755-1209},
issn = {19449208},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {141--163},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The albedo of earth}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2014rg000449},
volume = {53},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Stephens2018GRL,
abstract = {Abstract Decreases in pan evaporation (Epan) have been reported around the world despite increasing air temperatures; this was attributed to reductions in wind speed and solar radiation. Using 42 years (1975‐2016) of Australian Epan data, we re‐examined Epan trends, adding over a decade of observations to previous analyses. Flexible local linear regression models showed that many previously reported decreasing Epan trends have plateaued or reversed. Attribution analysis confirmed that 1975‐1994 Epan decreases in southern/western Australia were chiefly driven by decreasing wind speeds. Increasing vapor pressure deficit subsequently became dominant, resulting in 1994‐2016 Epan increases. Climate trend analyses should consider applying flexible statistical models to qualitatively understand temporal dynamics, complementing linear models that are able to provide quantitative assessments, especially when multiple drivers are involved. Plain Language Summary Evaporation pans measure atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) and are used to estimate water loss from storages (e.g. dams) and to provide inputs to hydrologic models and drought indices. In the late 20th century, a surprising trend in annual pan evaporation was found: although temperatures were increasing, pan evaporation was decreasing in many parts of the world (including Australia). Pan evaporation responds to multiple drivers: net radiation, air temperature, wind speed and vapor pressure deficit. In Australia, earlier studies showed that declining wind speeds (stilling) were chiefly responsible.We revisited the conclusions of these studies using an additional 12 years of pan evaporation data. Interestingly, we found that many previously decreasing pan evaporation trends are now increasing. Using a flexible regression technique in combination with linear regression, we showed that this change is due to increasing air temperature driving greater vapor pressure deficits. Possible reasons for increasing air temperatures include anthropogenic climate change and/or a period of drought (2000s) in Australia. Both of these factors likely contributed to increasing pan evaporation trends. Increased AED may reduce water security due to greater evaporative losses from storages.},
annote = {Pan evaporation decreases 1970s to mid‐2000s previously attributed to decreasing wind speeds actually reversed in the early 1990sdue to increasing vapor pressure deficit relating to warming},
author = {Stephens, Clare M. and McVicar, Tim R. and Johnson, Fiona M. and Marshall, Lucy A.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079332},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate change analysis,Local linear regression,Pan Radiation,Vapor pressure deficit,Wind speed},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {11164--11172},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Revisiting Pan Evaporation Trends in Australia a Decade on}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL079332 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079332},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Stephens2012,
abstract = {Climate change is governed by changes to the global energy balance. At the top of the atmosphere, this balance is monitored globally by satellite sensors that provide measurements of energy flowing to and from Earth. By contrast, observations at the surface are limited mostly to land areas. As a result, the global balance of energy fluxes within the atmosphere or at Earth's surface cannot be derived directly from measured fluxes, and is therefore uncertain. This lack of precise knowledge of surface energy fluxes profoundly affects our ability to understand how Earth's climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. In light of compilations of up-to-date surface and satellite data, the surface energy balance needs to be revised. Specifically, the longwave radiation received at the surface is estimated to be significantly larger, by between 10 and 17 Wm -2, than earlier model-based estimates. Moreover, the latest satellite observations of global precipitation indicate that more precipitation is generated than previously thought. This additional precipitation is sustained by more energy leaving the surface by evaporation - that is, in the form of latent heat flux - and thereby offsets much of the increase in longwave flux to the surface.},
author = {Stephens, Graeme L. and Li, Juilin and Wild, Martin and Clayson, Carol Anne and Loeb, Norman and Kato, Seiji and L'Ecuyer, Tristan and Stackhouse, Paul W. and Lebsock, Matthew and Andrews, Timothy},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1580},
issn = {17520894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {10},
pages = {691--696},
title = {{An update on Earth's energy balance in light of the latest global observations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1580},
volume = {5},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Sterling2013,
abstract = {Floods and droughts cause perhaps the most human suffering of all climate-related events; a major goal is to understand how humans alter the incidence and severity of these events by changing the terrestrial water cycle. Here we use over 1,500 estimates of annual evapotranspiration and a database of global land-cover change to project alterations of global scale terrestrial evapotranspiration (TET) from current anthropogenic land-cover change. Geographic modelling reveals that land-cover change reduces annual TET by approximately 3,500 km 3 yr -1 (5{\%}) and that the largest changes in evapotranspiration are associated with wetlands and reservoirs. Land surface model simulations support these evapotranspiration changes, and project increased runoff (7.6{\%}) as a result of land-cover changes. Next we create a synthesis of the major anthropogenic impacts on annual runoff and find that the net result is an increase in annual runoff, although this is uncertain. The results demonstrate that land-cover change alters annual global runoff to a similar or greater extent than other major drivers, affirming the important role of land-cover change in the Earth System. Last, we identify which major anthropogenic drivers to runoff change have a mean global change statistic that masks large regional increases and decreases: land-cover change, changes in meteorological forcing, and direct CO 2 effects on plants. {\textcopyright} 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.},
author = {Sterling, Shannon M. and Ducharne, Agn{\`{e}}s and Polcher, Jan},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1690},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Biogeochemistry,Hydrology},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {385--390},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The impact of global land-cover change on the terrestrial water cycle}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1690},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Stevens2009,
abstract = {It is thought that changes in the concentration of cloud-active aerosol can alter the precipitation efficiency of clouds, thereby changing cloud amount and, hence, the radiative forcing of the climate system. Despite decades of research, it has proved frustratingly difficult to establish climatically meaningful relationships among the aerosol, clouds and precipitation. As a result, the climatic effect of the aerosol remains controversial. We propose that the difficulty in untangling relationships among the aerosol, clouds and precipitation reflects the inadequacy of existing tools and methodologies and a failure to account for processes that buffer cloud and precipitation responses to aerosol perturbations.},
author = {Stevens, Bjorn and Feingold, Graham},
doi = {10.1038/nature08281},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {oct},
number = {7264},
pages = {607},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Untangling aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation in a buffered system}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature08281},
volume = {461},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Stevenson2015,
abstract = {The importance of interannual-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) influences on drought in the United States is examined using a suite of simulations conducted with the T31 3 3 resolution version of the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0.3). The model captures tropical Pacific teleconnections to North American precipitation reasonably well, although orographic features are somewhat enhanced at higher resolution. The contribution of SST anomalies is isolated by comparing two idealized, 1000-yr CESM1.0.3 experiments: a fully coupled control and an atmosphere-only (CAM4) run forced with the SST climatology from the control. Droughts are identified using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which is computed over four U.S. regions from the CESM1.0.3 experiments and compared with the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The CESM1.0.3 reproduces the persistence of NADA droughts quite well, although the model underestimates drought severity. Within the CESM1.0.3 framework, SST forcing does not sig- nificantly affect drought intensity or frequency of occurrence, even for very persistent ‘‘megadroughts'' of 15 yr or more in length. In both the CESM1.0.3 and NADA, with the exception of the Southeast United States, droughts in all regions have intensities, persistence lengths, and occurrence frequencies statistically consistent with a red noise null hypothesis. This implies that SST forcing is not the dominant factor in gen- erating drought and therefore that many decadal megadroughts are caused by a combination of internal atmospheric variability and coupling with the land surface, with SST anomalies playing only a secondary role.},
author = {Stevenson, Samantha and Timmermann, Axel and Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu and Langford, Sally and DiNezio, Pedro},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00689.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {1865--1880},
title = {{Stochastically Generated North American Megadroughts}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00689.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Stevenson2016,
abstract = {The hydroclimate response to volcanic eruptions depends both on volcanically induced changes to the hydrologic cycle and on teleconnections with the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), complicating the interpretation of offsets between proxy reconstructions and model output. Here, these effects are separated, using the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME), by examination of ensemble realizations with distinct posteruption ENSO responses. Hydroclimate anomalies in monsoon Asia and the western United States resemble the El Ni{\~{n}}o teleconnection pattern after “Tropical” and “Northern” eruptions, even when ENSO-neutral conditions are present. This pattern results from Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface cooling, which shifts the intertropical convergence zone equatorward, intensifies the NH subtropical jet, and suppresses the Southeast Asian monsoon. El Ni{\~{n}}o events following an eruption can then intensify the ENSO-neutral hydroclimate signature, and El Ni{\~{n}}o probability is enhanced two boreal winters following all eruption types. Additionally, the eruption-year ENSO response to eruptions is hemispherically dependent: the winter following a Northern eruption tends toward El Ni{\~{n}}o, while Southern volcanoes enhance the probability of La Ni{\~{n}}a events and Tropical eruptions have a very slight cooling effect. Overall, eruption-year hydroclimate anomalies in CESM disagree with the proxy record in both Southeast Asia and North America, suggesting that model monsoon representation cannot be solely responsible. Possible explanations include issues with the model ENSO response, the spatial or temporal structure of volcanic aerosol distribution, or data uncertainties.},
author = {Stevenson, Samantha and Otto-Bliesner, Bette and Fasullo, John and Brady, Esther},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0239.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2907--2921},
title = {{“El Ni{\~{n}}o Like” Hydroclimate Responses to Last Millennium Volcanic Eruptions}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0239.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Stjern2017JGR,
abstract = {We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by nine global coupled-climate models, producing a model median effective radiative forcing of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) W m −2 , and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 W m −2 based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (−0.64 W m −2 for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low-level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher-level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small median global warming of 0.47 K per W m −2 —about 20{\%} lower than the response to a doubling of CO 2 . Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present-day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K.},
author = {Stjern, Camilla Weum and Samset, Bj{\o}rn Hallvard and Myhre, Gunnar and Forster, Piers M. and Hodnebrog, {\O}ivind and Andrews, Timothy and Boucher, Olivier and Faluvegi, Gregory and Iversen, Trond and Kasoar, Matthew and Kharin, Viatcheslav and Kirkev{\aa}g, Alf and Lamarque, Jean Fran{\c{c}}ois and Olivi{\'{e}}, Dirk and Richardson, Thomas and Shawki, Dilshad and Shindell, Drew and Smith, Christopher J. and Takemura, Toshihiko and Voulgarakis, Apostolos},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027326},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {black carbon,climate,rapid adjustments,semidirect},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11462--11481},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Rapid Adjustments Cause Weak Surface Temperature Response to Increased Black Carbon Concentrations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017jd027326},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{IPCCSummaryStocker2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Alexander, L V and Allen, S K and Bindoff, N L and Br{\'{e}}on, F.-M. and Church, J A and Cubasch, U and Emori, S and Forster, P. and Friedlingstein, P and Gillett, N and Gregory, J M and Hartmann, D L and Jansen, E and Kirtman, B and Knutti, R and {Krishna Kumar}, K and Lemke, P and Marotzke, J and Masson-Delmotte, V and Meehl, G A and Mokhov, I I and Piao, S and Ramaswamy, V and Randall, D and Rhein, M and Rojas, M and Sabine, C and Shindell, D. and Talley, L D and Vaughan, D G and Xie, S.-P. and Allen, M.R. and de Coninck, H. and Dube, O.P. and Hoegh-Guldberg, O. and Jacob, D. and Jiang, K. and Revi, A. and Rogelj, J. and Roy, J. and Shindell, D. and Solecki, W. and Taylor, M. and Tschakert, P. and Waisman, H. and {Abdul Halim}, S. and Antwi-Agyei, P. and Arag{\'{o}}n-Durand, F. and Babiker, M. and Bertoldi, P. and Bindi, M. and Brown, S. and Buckeridge, M. and Camilloni, I. and Cartwright, A. and Cramer, W. and Dasgupta, P. and Diedhiou, A. and Djalante, R. and Dong, W. and Ebi, K.L. and Engelbrecht, F. and Fifita, S. and Ford, J. and Forster, P. and Fuss, S. and Ginzburg, V. and Guiot, J. and Handa, C. and Hayward, B. and Hijioka, Y. and Hourcade, J.-C. and Humphreys, S. and Kainuma, M. and Kala, J. and Kanninen, M. and Kheshgi, H. and Kobayashi, S. and Kriegler, E. and Ley, D. and Liverman, D. and Mahowald, N. and Mechler, R. and Mehrotra, S. and Mulugetta, Y. and Mundaca, L. and Newman, P. and Okereke, C. and Payne, A. and Perez, R. and Pinho, P.F. and Revokatova, A. and Riahi, K. and Schultz, S. and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, R. and Seneviratne, S.I. and Steg, L. and {Suarez Rodriguez}, A.G. and Sugiyama, T. and Thomas, A. and Vilari{\~{n}}o, M.V. and Wairiu, M. and Warren, R. and Zhou, G. and Zickfeld, K. and Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Alexander, L V and Allen, S K and Bindoff, N L and Br{\'{e}}on, F.-M. and Church, J A and Cubasch, U and Emori, S and Forster, P. and Friedlingstein, P and Gillett, N and Gregory, J M and Hartmann, D L and Jansen, E and Kirtman, B and Knutti, R and {Krishna Kumar}, K and Lemke, P and Marotzke, J and Masson-Delmotte, V and Meehl, G A and Mokhov, I I and Piao, S and Ramaswamy, V and Randall, D and Rhein, M and Rojas, M and Sabine, C and Shindell, D. and Talley, L D and Vaughan, D G and Xie, S.-P.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {TS},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.005},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {33--115},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Technical Summary}},
type = {Book Section},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Stott2016,
abstract = {Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.},
author = {Stott, Peter A. and Christidis, Nikolaos and Otto, Friederike E.L. and Sun, Ying and Vanderlinden, Jean Paul and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Vautard, Robert and von Storch, Hans and Walton, Peter and Yiou, Pascal and Zwiers, Francis W.},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.380},
isbn = {978-94-007-6691-4},
issn = {17577799},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
number = {1},
pages = {23--41},
pmid = {26877771},
title = {{Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events}},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Strikis2015,
abstract = {A substantial strengthening of the South American monsoon system (SAMS) during Heinrich Stadials (HS) points toward decreased cross-equatorial heat transport as the main driver of monsoonal hydroclimate variability at millennial time-scales. In order to better constrain the exact timing and internal structure of HS1 over tropical South America we assessed two precisely dated speleothem records from central-eastern and northeastern Brazil in combination with two marine records of terrestrial organic and inorganic matter input into the western equatorial Atlantic. During HS1 we recognize at least two events of widespread intensification of the SAMS across the entire region influenced by the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) at 16.11-14.69 kyr BP and 18.1-16.66 kyr BP (labeled as HS1a and HS1c, respectively), separated by a dry excursion from 16.66-16.11 kyr BP (HS1b). In view of the spatial structure of precipitation anomalies, the widespread increase of monsoon precipitation over the SACZ domain was termed 'Mega-SACZ'.},
author = {Str{\'{i}}kis, Nicol{\'{a}}s M. and Chiessi, Cristiano M. and Cruz, Francisco W. and Vuille, Mathias and Cheng, Hai and {De Souza Barreto}, Eline A. and Mollenhauer, Gesine and Kasten, Sabine and Karmann, Ivo and Edwards, R. Lawrence and Bernal, Juan Pablo and Sales, Hamilton Dos Reis},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064048},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Heinrich Stadial,South American Monsoon,South Atlantic Convergence Zone,paleoclimate,speleothems,stable isotope},
number = {13},
pages = {5477-- 5484},
pmid = {21645924},
title = {{Timing and structure of Mega-SACZ events during Heinrich Stadial 1}},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Strikis2018,
abstract = {Heinrich Stadials significantly affected tropical precipitation through changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient as a result of abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic. Here, we focus on changes in South American monsoon precipitation during Heinrich Stadials using a suite of speleothem records covering the last 85 ky B.P. from eastern South America. We document the response of South American monsoon precipitation to episodes of extensive iceberg discharge, which is distinct from the response to the cooling episodes that precede the main phase of ice-rafted detritus deposition. Our results demonstrate that iceberg discharge in the western subtropical North Atlantic led to an abrupt increase in monsoon precipitation over eastern South America. Our findings of an enhanced Southern Hemisphere monsoon, coeval with the iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic, are consistent with the observed abrupt increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during Heinrich Stadials.},
author = {Str{\'{i}}kis, Nicol{\'{a}}s M. and Cruz, Francisco W. and Barreto, Eline A. S. and Naughton, Filipa and Vuille, Mathias and Cheng, Hai and Voelker, Antje H. L. and Zhang, Haiwei and Karmann, Ivo and Edwards, R. Lawrence and Auler, Augusto S. and Santos, Roberto Ventura and Sales, Hamilton Reis},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1717784115},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {15},
pages = {3788--3793},
title = {{South American monsoon response to iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic}},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Stuart-Smith2020,
abstract = {A potential glacial lake outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) threatens Huaraz, a city of 120,000 people. In 1941, an outburst flood destroyed one-third of the city and caused at least 1,800 fatalities. Since pre-industrial times, Lake Palcacocha has expanded due to the retreat of Palcaraju glacier. Here we used observations and numerical models to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to the glacier's retreat and glacial lake outburst flood hazard. We found that the magnitude of human-induced warming equals between 85 and 105{\%} (5–95{\%} confidence interval) of the observed 1 °C warming since 1880 in this region. We conclude that it is virtually certain ({\textgreater}99{\%} probability) that the retreat of Palcaraju glacier to the present day cannot be explained by natural variability alone, and that the retreat by 1941 represented an early impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Our central estimate is that the overall retreat is entirely attributable to the observed temperature trend, and that the resulting change in the geometry of the lake and valley has substantially increased the outburst flood hazard.},
annote = {Retreat of Palcaraju glacier in Peru attributed to human-caused warming and has and that the resulting change in the geometry of the lake and increased the outburst flood hazard.},
author = {Stuart-Smith, R and Roe, GH and Li, S and Allen, M},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-021-00686-4},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {ffr},
number = {2},
pages = {85--90},
title = {{Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00686-4},
volume = {14},
year = {2020}
}
@article{studholme2018concurrent,
abstract = {Poleward trends in seasonal-mean latitudes of tropical cyclones (TCs) have been identified in direct observations from 1980 to the present. Paleoclimate reconstructions also indicate poleward–equatorward migrations over centennial–millennial time scales. Hadley circulation (HC) is often both implicitly and explicitly invoked to provide dynamical linkages to these shifts, although no direct analysis of concurrent changes in the recent period has been presented. Here, the observational TC record (1981–2016) and ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2 are studied to examine potential relationships between the two. A zonally asymmetric HC is defined by employing Helmholtz theory for vector decomposition, and this permits the derivation of novel HC diagnostics local to TC basins.},
author = {Studholme, Joshua and Gulev, Sergey},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0852.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {4367--4389},
title = {{Concurrent Changes to Hadley Circulation and the Meridional Distribution of Tropical Cyclones}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0852.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Stuecker2018NClim,
abstract = {The surface temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing displays a characteristic pattern of polar-amplified warming1–5, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The causes of this polar amplification (PA) are still debated. While some studies highlight the importance of the surface-albedo feedback6–8, others find larger contributions from longwave feedbacks9, specifically the local lapse-rate and Planck feedbacks4,10. Additionally, changes in atmo- spheric and oceanic heat transport are thought to play a role11–16. Here we perform climate model simulations with CO2 forcing prescribed in distinct geographical regions to determine the causes of PA. The sum of climate responses to regional forcings approximates well the re- sponse to global forcing, thus permitting an attribution of polar warming to local and remote processes. PA is found to be dominated by forcing in polar regions. While extra-polar forcing contributes to polar warming, it induces a largely uniform warming pattern due to enhanced poleward heat transport, thus contributing little to PA. The relative contributions of different processes to polar warming strongly depends on where CO2 forcing is applied. However, PA is primarily caused by direct CO2 forcing at the poles and positive local lapse-rate feedback, with ice-albedo and Planck feedbacks contributing to a lesser degree.},
author = {Stuecker, Malte F. and Bitz, Cecilia M. and Armour, Kyle C. and Proistosescu, Cristian and Kang, Sarah M. and Xie, Shang Ping and Kim, Doyeon and McGregor, Shayne and Zhang, Wenjun and Zhao, Sen and Cai, Wenju and Dong, Yue and Jin, Fei Fei},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0339-y},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {12},
pages = {1076--1081},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Polar amplification dominated by local forcing and feedbacks}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fs41558-018-0339-y},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Su2014,
author = {Su, Hui and Jiang, Jonathan H. and Zhai, Chengxing and Shen, Tsaepyng J. and Neelin, J. David and Stephens, Graeme L. and Yung, Yuk L.},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD021642},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5787--5805},
title = {{Weakening and strengthening structures in the Hadley Circulation change under global warming and implications for cloud response and climate sensitivity}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD021642},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Su2019CAS,
abstract = {Simulations of tropical atmospheric circulation response to surface warming vary substantially across models, causing large uncertainties in projections of regional precipitation change. Understanding the physical processes that drive the model spread in tropical circulation changes is critically needed. Here we employ the basic mass balance and energetic constraints on tropical circulation to identify the dominant factors that determine multidecadal circulation strength and area changes in climate models. We show that the models produce a robust weakening of descent rate under warming regardless of surface warming patterns; however, ascent rate change exhibits inter-model spread twice as large as descent rate because of diverse model responses in the radiative effects of clouds, water vapor, and aerosols. As ascent area change is dictated by the disparate descent and ascent rate changes due to the mass budget and the inter-model spread in descent rate change is small, the model spread in ascent area change is dominated by that of ascent rate change, resulting in a strong anti-correlation of –0.85 between the fractional changes of ascent strength and area across 77 climate model simulations. This anti-correlation leads to a corresponding inverse relationship between the rates of precipitation intensifying and narrowing of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), suggesting tropical ascent area change can be potentially used to constrain the ITCZ precipitation change. Longwave cloud radiative effect at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) in the convective region is identified to be a major source of uncertainties for tropical ascent rate change and thus for regional precipitation change.},
annote = {A weakening of tropical descent regardless of surface warming patterns is explained by robust mass balance and energetic constraints yet changes in ascent rates exhibits inter-model spread due to a diverse responses in the radiative effects of clouds, water vapor, and aerosols.},
author = {Su, Hui and Zhai, Chengxing and Jiang, Jonathan H. and Wu, Longtao and Neelin, J. David and Yung, Yuk L.},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-019-0066-8},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
keywords = {Atmospheric Climate and Earth system modelling},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {8},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{A dichotomy between model responses of tropical ascent and descent to surface warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0066-8},
volume = {2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Su2020,
abstract = {Abstract Climate models predict that the tropical ascending region should tighten under global warming, but observational quantification of the tightening rate is limited. Here we show that the observed spatial extent of the relatively moist, rainy and cloudy regions in the tropics associated with large-scale ascent has been decreasing at a rate of -1{\%}/decade (-5{\%}/K) from 1979 to 2016, resulting from combined effects of interdecadal variability and anthropogenic forcings, with the former contributing more than the latter. The tightening of tropical ascent is associated with an increase in the occurrence frequency of extremely strong ascent, leading to an increase in the average precipitation rate in the top 1{\%} of monthly rainfall in the tropics. At the margins of the convective zones such as the Southeast Amazonia region, the contraction of large-scale ascent is related to a long-term drying trend about -3.2{\%}/decade in the past 38 years.},
author = {Su, Hui and Wu, Longtao and Zhai, Chengxing and Jiang, Jonathan H and Neelin, J David and Yung, Yuk L},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL085809},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Ascent,Circulation,Drying,Precipitation,Tightening,thermo},
month = {jan},
number = {3},
pages = {e2019GL085809},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Observed Tightening of Tropical Ascent in Recent Decades and Linkage to Regional Precipitation Changes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085809},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Su2017NComms,
abstract = {The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dT s) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dT s and global-mean dP/dT s, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dT s all predict dP/dT s under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dT s from the 20 models analysed in this study.},
author = {Su, Hui and Jiang, Jonathan H. and Neelin, J. David and Shen, T. Janice and Zhai, Chengxing and Yue, Qing and Wang, Zhien and Huang, Lei and Choi, Yong Sang and Stephens, Graeme L. and Yung, Yuk L.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms15771},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {jun},
pages = {15771},
pmid = {28589940},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fncomms15771},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Subramanian2014,
author = {Subramanian, Aneesh and Jochum, Markus and Miller, Arthur J. and Neale, Richard and Seo, Hyodae and Waliser, Duane and Murtugudde, Raghu},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1846-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2019--2031},
title = {{The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-013-1846-1},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Sudeepkumar2018,
author = {Sudeepkumar, B.L. and Babu, C.A. and Varikoden, Hamza},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.12.020},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
month = {feb},
pages = {222--230},
title = {{Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S092181811730259X},
volume = {161},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sun2018,
author = {Sun, Chao and Liu, Li and Li, Li-Juan and Wang, Bin and Zhang, Cheng and Liu, Qun and Li, Rui-Zhe},
doi = {10.1002/asl.805},
issn = {1530261X},
journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {e805},
title = {{Uncertainties in simulated El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation arising from internal climate variability}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/asl.805},
volume = {19},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sun2019GRL,
abstract = {Abstract This study uses dynamical and statistical methods to understand end‐of‐century mean changes to Sierra Nevada snowpack. Dynamical results reveal that middle‐elevation watersheds experience considerably more rain than snow during winter, leading to substantial snowpack declines by spring. Despite some high‐elevation watersheds receiving slightly more snow in January and February, the warming signal still dominates across the wet season and leads to notable declines by springtime. A statistical model is created to mimic dynamical results for 1 April snowpack, allowing for an efficient downscaling of all available general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. For all general circulation models and emission scenarios, dramatic 1 April snowpack loss occurs at elevations below 2,500 m, despite increased precipitation in many general circulation models. Only 36{\%} (±12{\%}) of historical 1 April total snow water equivalent volume remains at the century's end under a “business‐as‐usual” emission scenario, with 70{\%} (±12{\%}) remaining under a realistic “mitigation” scenario. Plain Language Summary The Sierra Nevada is one of California's most beloved natural treasures, and mountain snowpack snow is an important water resource. As climate change continues, scientists and water managers have become increasingly concerned about the future of the frozen reservoir Californian depend on. Global climate models are the best tools we have for projecting future climate change. But they are too coarse in spatial resolution to accurately simulate future climate in topographically complex areas like the Sierra Nevada, where different elevations experience different climatic conditions. This study utilizes an innovative hybrid high‐resolution downscaling method to understand spatial and temporal patterns of snowpack changes for certain watersheds and different elevations in the Sierra Nevada. A full range of global climate models and future greenhouse emission scenarios are investigated to quantify the uncertainties. Dramatic decreases in total Sierra Nevada snowpack are projected by century's end, even under a realistic mitigation emission scenario. The results are intended to provide water resource and management agencies information to help plan for the impacts of future climate change on the reliability and inhomogeneity of water supplies.},
annote = {Projections for the Sierra Nevada show a 30{\%}±12{\%} reduction in snowpack and 30 days earlier spring melt under the RCP4.5 scenario.},
author = {Sun, Fengpeng and Berg, Neil and Hall, Alex and Schwartz, Marla and Walton, Daniel},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL080362},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Sierra Nevada,climate change,climate downscaling,regional climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {933--943},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Understanding End-of-century Snowpack Changes Over California's Sierra Nevada}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL080362},
volume = {46},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sun2015,
author = {Sun, Qiaohong and Miao, Chiyuan and Duan, Qingyun},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD022994},
isbn = {2169-8996},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {10.1002/2014JD022994 and CMIP3,CMIP5,China,temperature},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {4806--4824},
title = {{Comparative analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models for simulating the daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation over China}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD022994},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Sun2012a,
author = {Sun, Youbin and Clemens, Steven C. and Morrill, Carrie and Lin, Xiaopei and Wang, Xulong and An, Zhisheng},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1326},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {46--49},
title = {{Influence of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the East Asian winter monsoon}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1326},
volume = {5},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Sun2020,
abstract = {This paper provides an updated analysis of observed changes in extreme precipitation using high-quality station data up to 2018. We examine changes in extreme precipitation represented by annual maxima of 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation accumulations at different spatial scales and attempt to address whether the signal in extreme precipitation has strengthened with several years of additional observations. Extreme precipitation has increased at about two-thirds of stations and the percentage of stations with significantly increasing trends is significantly larger than that can be expected by chance for the globe, continents including Asia, Europe, and North America, and regions including central North America, eastern North America, northern Central America, northern Europe, the Russian Far East, eastern central Asia, and East Asia. The percentage of stations with significantly decreasing trends is not different from that expected by chance. Fitting extreme precipitation to generalized extreme value distributions with global mean surface temperature (GMST) as a covariate reaffirms the statistically significant connections between extreme precipitation and temperature. The global median sensitivity, percentage change in extreme precipitation per 1 K increase in GMST is 6.6{\%} (5.1{\%} to 8.2{\%}; 5{\%}–95{\%} confidence interval) for Rx1day and is slightly smaller at 5.7{\%} (5.0{\%} to 8.0{\%}) for Rx5day. The comparison of results based on observations ending in 2018 with those from data ending in 2000–09 shows a consistent median rate of increase, but a larger percentage of stations with statistically significant increasing trends, indicating an increase in the detectability of extreme precipitation intensification, likely due to the use of longer records.},
author = {Sun, Qiaohong and Zhang, Xuebin and Zwiers, Francis and Westra, Seth and Alexander, Lisa V.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0892.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {243--258},
title = {{A Global, Continental, and Regional Analysis of Changes in Extreme Precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0892.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/1/jcliD190892.xml},
volume = {34},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Supari2018,
author = {Supari and Tangang, Fredolin and Salimun, Ester and Aldrian, Edvin and Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena and Juneng, Liew},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-4028-8},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {oct},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2559--2580},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-4028-8},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sutton2019,
abstract = {For decision-makers, climate change is a problem in risk assessment and risk management. It is, therefore, surprising that the needs and lessons of risk assessment have not featured more centrally in the consideration of priorities for physical climate science research, or in the Working Group I contributions to the major assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This article considers the reasons, which include a widespread view that the job of physical climate science is to provide predictions and projections—with a focus on likelihood rather than risk—and that risk assessment is a job for others. This view, it is argued, is incorrect. There is an urgent need for physical climate science to take the needs of risk assessment much more seriously. The challenge of meeting this need has important implications for priorities in climate research, climate modeling, and climate assessments.},
author = {Sutton, Rowan T},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0280.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1637--1642},
title = {{Climate Science Needs to Take Risk Assessment Much More Seriously}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/9/bams-d-18-0280.1.xml},
volume = {100},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sutton2018a,
abstract = {The purpose of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to provide policy-relevant assessments of the scientific evidence about climate change. Policymaking necessarily involves risk assessments, so it is important that IPCC reports are designed accordingly. This paper proposes a specific idea, illustrated with examples, to improve the contribution of IPCC Working Group I to informing climate risk assessments.},
author = {Sutton, Rowan T.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018},
issn = {21904987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {4},
pages = {1155--1158},
title = {{ESD Ideas: A simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks}},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Suzuki2015,
abstract = {This study examines the warm rain formation process over the global ocean in global climate models. Methodologies developed to analyze CloudSat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations are employed to investigate the cloud-to-precipitation process of warm clouds and are applied to the model results to examine how the models represent the process for warm stratiform clouds. Despite a limitation of the present study that compares the statistics for stratiform clouds in climate models with those from satellite observations, including both stratiform and (shallow) convective clouds, the statistics constructed with the methodologies are compared between the models and satellite observations to expose their similarities and differences. A problem common to some models is that they tend to produce rain at a faster rate than is observed. These model characteristics are further examined in the context of cloud microphysics parameterizations using a simplified one-dimensional model of warm rain formation that isolates key microphysical processes from full interactions with other processes in global climate models. The one-dimensional model equivalent statistics reproduce key characteristics of the global model statistics when corresponding autoconversion schemes are assumed in the one-dimensional model. The global model characteristics depicted by the statistics are then interpreted as reflecting behaviors of the autoconversion parameterizations adopted in the models. Comparisons of the one-dimensional model with satellite observations hint at improvements to the formulation of the parameterization scheme, thus offering a novel way of constraining key parameters in autoconversion schemes of global models.},
author = {Suzuki, Kentaroh and Stephens, Graeme and Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro and Wang, Minghuai and Golaz, Jean-Christophe and Yokohata, Tokuta and Koshiro, Tsuyoshi},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-14-0265.1},
issn = {0022-4928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {3996--4014},
title = {{Evaluation of the Warm Rain Formation Process in Global Models with Satellite Observations}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jas/article/72/10/3996/27401/Evaluation-of-the-Warm-Rain-Formation-Process-in},
volume = {72},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Swann06092016,
abstract = {Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70{\%} of global land area. This area drops to 37{\%} with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.},
author = {Swann, Abigail L S and Hoffman, Forrest M and Koven, Charles D and Randerson, James T},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1604581113},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {36},
pages = {10019--10024},
title = {{Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/113/36/10019.abstract},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Swapna2012,
author = {Swapna, Panickal and Krishnan, R. and Wallace, J. M.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1787-8},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2439--2454},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Indian Ocean and monsoon coupled interactions in a warming environment}},
volume = {42},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Sylla2015,
abstract = {In this study, the response of the annual cycle of high-intensity daily precipitation events over West Africa to anthropogenic greenhouse gas for the late twenty-first century is investigated using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model experiments. For the present day, the RCM ensemble substantially improves the simulation of the annual cycle for various precipitation statistics compared to the driving Earth system models. The late-twenty-first-century projected changes in mean precipitation exhibit a delay of the monsoon season, consistent with previous studies. In addition, these projections indicate a prevailing decrease in frequency but increase in intensity of very wet events, particularly in the premonsoon and early mature monsoon stages, more pronounced over the Sahel and in RCP8.5 than the Gulf of Guinea and in RCP4.5. This is due to the presence of stronger moisture convergence in the boundary layer that sustains intense precipitation once convection is initiated. The premonsoon season experiences the largest changes in daily precipitation statistics, particularly toward an increased risk of drought associated with a decrease in mean precipitation and frequency of wet days and an increased risk of flood associated with very wet events. Both of these features can produce significant stresses on important sectors such as agriculture andwater resources at a time of the year (e.g., the monsoon onset)where such stresses can have stronger impacts. The results thus point toward the importance of analyzing changes of precipitation characteristics as a function of the regional seasonal and subseasonal cycles of rainfall.},
author = {Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Giorgi, Filippo and Pal, Jeremy S. and Gibba, Peter and Kebe, Ibourahima and Nikiema, Michel},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00854.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Africa,Climate change,Climate models,Ensembles,Extreme events,Seasonal cycle},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6475--6488},
title = {{Projected changes in the annual cycle of high-intensity precipitation events over West Africa for the late twenty-first century}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00854.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tachiiri2019,
abstract = {An Earth system model (ESM) was used to investigate the effect of reaching the target of 1.5 °C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) after overshooting to the 2 °C level with respect to selected global environment indicators. Two scenarios were compared that diverged after reaching the 2 °C level: One stayed at the 2 °C level, and the other cooled to the 1.5 °C level. Unlike the internationally coordinated model intercomparison projects, the scenarios were developed for a specific climatic model with emissions and land use scenarios consistent with socioeconomic projections from an integrated assessment model. The ESM output resulted in delayed realization of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets expected for 2100. The cumulative CO2 emissions for 2010-2100 (2300) were 358 (-53) GtCO2 in the 2 °C scenario and-337 (-936) GtCO2 in the 1.5 °C scenario. We examined the effect of overshooting on commonly used indicators related to surface air temperature, sea surface temperature and total ocean heat uptake. Global vegetation productivity at 2100 showed around a 5{\%} increase in the 2 °C scenario without overshooting compared with the 1.5 °C scenario with overshooting, considered to be caused by more precipitation and stronger CO2 fertilization. A considerable difference was found between the two scenarios in terms of Arctic sea ice, whereas both scenarios indicated few corals would survive past the 21st century. The difference in steric sea level rise, reflecting total cumulative ocean heat uptake, between the two scenarios was {\textless}2 cm in 2100, and around 9 cm in 2300 in the Pacific Island region. A large overshoot may reduce the eventual difference between targets (i.e. 1.5 °C in contrast to 2 °C), particularly in terms of the indicators related to total ocean heat uptake, and to sensitive biological thresholds.},
author = {Tachiiri, Kaoru and {Silva Herran}, Diego and Su, Xuanming and Kawamiya, Michio},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {1.5°ctarget,2°ctarget,Earth system model,Integrated assessment model,Overshoot,Stabilization},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {124063},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °C warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °C level}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{tg09,
author = {Tague, Christina and Grant, Gordon E},
doi = {10.1029/2008WR007179},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {W07421},
title = {{Groundwater dynamics mediate low-flow response to global warming in snow-dominated alpine regions}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2008WR007179},
volume = {45},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Takahashi2018,
abstract = {This study investigated the absolute values of column-integrated water vapor (precipitable water; PW) in the climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in terms of the relationships between PW and precipitation characteristics. We identified that global mean PW values are systematically much lower in CMIP5 models than in observations. This dry bias is most profound over the tropical ocean. The dry bias is partly due to biases in sea surface temperatures in the CMIP5-coupled climate models. However, the dry bias is also present in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiments, which implies the existence of other factors. The relationship between PW and rainfall characteristics shows that rainfall occurs when water vapor levels are lower than in observations, particularly in models with a relatively strong dry bias. This suggests that the reproducibility of rainfall characteristics may be associated with the dry bias.},
author = {Takahashi, Hiroshi G.},
doi = {10.2151/jmsj.2018-046},
issn = {0026-1165},
journal = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Series II},
keywords = {Climate variation,IPCC-AR5,Rainfall characteristics,Tropics,Water vapor},
number = {4},
pages = {415--423},
title = {{A Systematic Tropospheric Dry Bias in the Tropics in CMIP5 Models: Relationship between Water Vapor and Rainfall Characteristics}},
url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/96/4/96{\_}2018-046/{\_}article},
volume = {96},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Takahashi2015,
abstract = {The atmospheric circulation patterns that were responsible for the heavy flooding that occurred in Thailand in 2011 are examined. This paper also investigates the interannual variation in precipitation over Indochina over a 33-yr period from 1979–2011, focusing on the role of westward-propagating tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Asian monsoon region. Cyclonic anomalies and more westward-propagating TCs than expected from the climatology of the area were observed in 2011 along the monsoon trough from the northern Indian subcontinent, the Bay of Bengal, Indochina, and the western North Pacific, which contributed significantly to the 2011 Thai flood. The strength of monsoon westerlies was normal, which implies that the monsoon westerly was not responsible for the seasonal heavy rainfall in 2011. Similar results were also obtained from the 33-yr statistical analysis. The 5-month total precipitation over Indochina covaried interannually with that along the monsoon trough. In addition, above-normal precipitation over Indochina was observed when enhanced cyclonic circulation with more westward-propagating TCs along the monsoon trough was observed. Notably, the above-normal precipitation was not due to the enhanced monsoon westerly over Indochina. Therefore, the 2011 Thai flood was caused by the typical atmospheric circulation pattern for an above-normal precipitation year. It is noteworthy that the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing over the western North Pacific and the Ni{\~{n}}o-3.4 region on total precipitation during the summer rainy season over Indochina was unclear over the 33-yr period.},
author = {Takahashi, Hiroshi G. and Fujinami, Hatsuki and Yasunari, Tetsuzo and Matsumoto, Jun and Baimoung, Somchai},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00147.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {4},
pages = {1465--1476},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Role of tropical cyclones along the monsoon trough in the 2011 Thai flood and interannual variability}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00147.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Takahashi2019,
abstract = {This study estimated the sensitivity of rainfall characteristics (rainfall amount, rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall extremes based on 30-min intervals) to land-surface conditions over Southeast Asia, which has a wet land surface during the rainy season. To obtain the regional difference in sensitivity and simulate basic cloud-precipitation systems, we used a high-resolution regional climate model. To extract the systematic signals of sensitivity and exclude random errors, a series of six sensitivity experiments, which were driven by a reanalysis dataset and the observed sea surface temperature (SST), were conducted over the Indochina Peninsula. In our experiments, soil moisture was prescribed at 0.20, 0.25, 0.30, 0.35, 0.40, and 0.45 m3 m −3 over the whole domain and during the whole calculation period. More experiments would allow us to divide the responses into systematic signals and random noise. The slope of a meteorological variable as a function of the six prescribed soil moisture values was defined as the sensitivity. It was found that the sensitivity of rainfall frequency to soil moisture was positive overall, whereas the sensitivity of rainfall intensity was negative overall, although evapotranspiration (sensible heat flux) increased (decreased) in a manner similar to the increase in soil moisture over the whole domain. The sensitivity of rainfall amount to an increase in soil moisture was dependent on the location. This implies that the response of rainfall characteristics to soil moisture is not simple, suggesting that changes in rainfall characteristics are not solely determined by evapotranspiration. In addition, the sensitivity of rainfall characteristics displayed remarkable regional characteristics. The characteristics described above were noticeable over the inland flat plains. We also discussed the mechanism in the response of rainfall characteristics to soil moisture. The coupling of an increase in water vapor in the planetary boundary layer and a decrease of sensible heat flux can explain the response. The increase in water vapor in the planetary boundary layer was associated with a reduction of the development of deep convections and an increase of boundary layer clouds.},
author = {Takahashi, Hiroshi G. and Polcher, Jan},
doi = {10.1186/s40645-019-0272-3},
issn = {21974284},
journal = {Progress in Earth and Planetary Science},
keywords = {n Land surface condition,Rainfall characteristics,Regional climate model,Soil moisture,Soil-rainfall feedback},
number = {1},
pages = {26},
publisher = {Progress in Earth and Planetary Science},
title = {{Weakening of rainfall intensity on wet soils over the wet Asian monsoon region using a high-resolution regional climate model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-019-0272-3},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Takahashi2019a,
abstract = {The 1925 El Ni{\~{n}}o (EN) event was the third strongest in the twentieth century according to its impacts in the far-eastern Pacific (FEP) associated with severe rainfall and flooding in coastal northern Peru and Ecuador in February–April 1925. In this study we gathered and synthesised a large diversity of in situ observations to provide a new assessment of this event from a modern perspective. In contrast to the extreme 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 events, this very strong “coastal El Ni{\~{n}}o” in early 1925 was characterised by warm conditions in the FEP, but cool conditions elsewhere in the central Pacific. Hydrographic and tide-gauge data indicate that downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves had little role in its initiation. Instead, ship data indicate an abrupt onset of strong northerly winds across the equator and the strengthening/weakening of the intertropical convergence zones (ITCZ) south/north of the equator. Observations indicate lack of external atmospheric forcing by the Panama gap jet and the south Pacific anticyclone and suggest that the coupled ocean–atmosphere feedback dynamics associated with the ITCZs, northerly winds, and the north–south SST asymmetry in the FEP lead to the enhancement of the seasonal cycle that produced this EN event. We propose that the cold conditions in the western-central equatorial Pacific, through its teleconnection effects on the FEP, helped destabilize the ITCZ and enhanced the meridional ocean–atmosphere feedback, as well as helping produce the very strong coastal rainfall. This is indicated by the nonlinear relation between the Piura river record at 5°S and the SST difference between the FEP and the western-central equatorial Pacific, a stability proxy. In summary, there are two types of EN events with very strong impacts in the FEP, both apparently associated with nonlinear convective feedbacks but with very different dynamics: the very strong warm ENSO events like 1982–1983 and 1997–1998, and the very strong “coastal” EN events like 1925.},
author = {Takahashi, Ken and Mart{\'{i}}nez, Alejandra G},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3702-1},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {12},
pages = {7389--7415},
title = {{The very strong coastal El Ni{\~{n}}o in 1925 in the far-eastern Pacific}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3702-1},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Takahashi2018a,
author = {Takahashi, Hiroshi G. and Watanabe, Shingo and Nakata, Makiko and Takemura, Toshihiko},
doi = {10.1186/s40645-018-0197-2},
issn = {2197-4284},
journal = {Progress in Earth and Planetary Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {44},
title = {{Response of the atmospheric hydrological cycle over the tropical Asian monsoon regions to anthropogenic aerosols and its seasonality}},
url = {https://progearthplanetsci.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40645-018-0197-2},
volume = {5},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Takahashi2011,
author = {Takahashi, Chiharu and Sato, Naoki and Seiki, Ayako and Yoneyama, Kunio and Shirooka, Ryuichi},
doi = {10.2151/sola.2011-051},
issn = {1349-6476},
journal = {SOLA},
pages = {201--204},
title = {{Projected Future Change of MJO and its Extratropical Teleconnection in East Asia during the Northern Winter Simulated in IPCC AR4 Models}},
url = {http://joi.jlc.jst.go.jp/JST.JSTAGE/sola/2011-051?from=CrossRef},
volume = {7},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Talento2012,
abstract = {We use a coupled model to estimate the natural variability of summertime rainfall over South America and to determine the time horizon when anthropogenic forcing will start having an effect on it. We use a combination of three experiments: preindustrial, 20th century, and the projected changes under A1B scenario. The first empirical orthogonal function of rainfall in December–February is used to characterize summertime variability. The model can display two different regimes of natural variability of this mode. In one regime, there is a strong coupling between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and the Atlantic Ocean. In the other regime, the SACZ is dominated by internal atmospheric variability. The detection of the impact of anthropogenic forcing is calculated comparing the probability density functions (pdfs) of the preindustrial run with the one under the A1B scenario. We found that the detection strongly depends on the pdf used to characterize internal climate variability. If the pdf of the mode with coupling between the SACZ and the Atlantic Ocean is used, the anthropogenic influence is felt very early within the future scenario (in less than 30 years). On the contrary, with the pdf that characterizes an SACZ dominated by internal atmospheric variability, the forcing is detected only several (almost 50) years into the scenario.},
author = {Talento, Stefanie and Barreiro, Marcelo},
doi = {10.1155/2012/725343},
issn = {1687-9309},
journal = {Advances in Meteorology},
pages = {1--10},
title = {{Estimation of Natural Variability and Detection of Anthropogenic Signal in Summertime Precipitation over South America}},
url = {http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2012/725343/},
volume = {2012},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Talento2018,
abstract = {The response of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) to an extratropical thermal forcing is investigated in a series of simulations performed with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Three sets of experiments are performed, varying the extratropical forcing. In the first the forcing consists of warming of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and cooling of the Southern Hemisphere, with zero global average. In the second and third experiments, the former forcing is divided into its northern and southern components to asses their relative roles in affecting the SACZ. In all the cases realistic surface boundary conditions are implemented. We found that during its peak in austral summer the SACZ weakens in response to the extratropical forcing and that such weakening is mostly due to the NH component of the forcing. We found that 75{\%} of the SACZ signal in response to the forcing is linked to the generation of a secondary tropical convergence zone in the Atlantic Ocean around 20°N–30°N, which generates an anomalous Hadley circulation with subsidence over the SACZ. This mechanism appears to be dependent on the upper level changes and tropical ocean response, as it weakens significantly when the simulation is repeated not allowing the tropical sea surface temperatures to change in response to the forcing. The remaining 25{\%} of the signal can be explained through the development of a Walker-type of circulation between western tropical Africa and the SACZ, being this mechanism dependent on the African land surface temperature reaction to the remote forcing.},
author = {Talento, Stefanie and Barreiro, Marcelo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3647-4},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {885--900},
title = {{Control of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone by extratropical thermal forcing}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3647-4},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Talib2018JClim,
abstract = {AbstractStudies have shown that the location and structure of the simulated Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is sensitive to the treatment of sub-gridscale convection and cloud-radiation interactions. This sensitivity remains in idealised aquaplanet experiments with fixed surface temperatures. However, studies have not considered the role of cloud-radiative effects (CRE, atmospheric heating due to cloud-radiation interactions) in the sensitivity of the ITCZ to the treatment of convection. We use an atmospheric energy input (AEI) framework to explore how the CRE modulates the sensitivity of the ITCZ to convective mixing in aquaplanet simulations. Simulations show a sensitivity of the ITCZ to convective mixing, with stronger convective mixing favoring a single ITCZ. For simulations with a single ITCZ, the CRE maintains the positive, equatorial AEI. To explore the role of the CRE further, we prescribe the CRE as either zero or a meridionally and diurnally varying climatology. Removing the CRE is associa...},
author = {Talib, Joshua and Woolnough, Steven J. and Klingaman, Nicholas P. and Holloway, Christopher E.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0794.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6821--6838},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{The Role of the Cloud Radiative Effect in the Sensitivity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone to Convective Mixing}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0794.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Tamang2020,
abstract = {Snowfall is one of the primary drivers of the global cryosphere and is declining in many regions of the world with widespread hydrological and ecological consequences. Previous studies have shown that the probability of snowfall occurrence is well described by wet-bulb temperatures below 1°C (1.1°C) over land (ocean). Using this relationship, wet-bulb temperatures from three reanalysis products as well as multisatellite and reanalysis precipitation data are analyzed from 1979 to 2017 to study changes in potential snowfall areas, snowfall-torainfall transition latitude, snowfall amount, and snowfall-to-precipitation ratio (SPR). Results are presented at hemispheric scales, as well as for three K{\"{o}}ppen-Geiger climate classes and four major mountainous regions including the Alps, the western United States, High Mountain Asia (HMA), and the Andes. In all reanalysis products, while changes in the wet-bulb temperature over the Southern Hemisphere are mostly insignificant, significant positive trends are observed over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Significant reductions are observed in annual-mean potential snowfall areas over NH land (ocean) by 0.52 (0.34) million km2 decade-1 due to an increase of 0.34°C (0.35°C) decade-1 in wet-bulb temperature. The fastest retreat in NH transition latitudes is observed over Europe and central Asia at 0.78 and 0.458 decade-1. Among mountainous regions, the largest decline in potential snowfall areas is observed over the Alps at 3.64{\%} decade-1 followed by the western United States at 2.81{\%} and HMA at 1.85{\%} decade-1. This maximum decrease over the Alps is associated with significant reductions in annual snowfall of 20 mm decade-1 and SPR of 2{\%} decade-1},
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Tamang, Sagar K. and Ebtehaj, Ardeshir M. and Prein, Andreas F. and Heymsfield, Andrew J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0254.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {1},
pages = {39--59},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Linking global changes of snowfall and wet-bulb temperature}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/1/jcli-d-19-0254.1.xml},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Tamarin-Brodsky2017,
abstract = {Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability - often referred to as storm tracks - which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.},
author = {Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia and Kaspi, Yohai},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-017-0001-8},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {12},
pages = {908--913},
title = {{Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0001-8},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Tan2015SciRep,
abstract = {Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.},
annote = {observed decreases in stream flow during recent decades over 96 Canada catchments are explained by direct human impact that overwhelms increases due to climate change including glacier melt.},
author = {Tan, Xuezhi and Gan, Thian Yew},
doi = {10.1038/srep17767},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {17767},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fsrep17767},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tan2018,
abstract = {Global climate models suffer from a persistent shortcoming in their simulation of rainfall by producing too much drizzle and too little intense rain. This erroneous distribution of rainfall is a result of deficiencies in the representation of underlying processes of rainfall formation. In the real world, clouds are precursors to rainfall and the distribution of clouds is intimately linked to the rainfall over the area. This study examines the model representation of tropical rainfall using the cloud regime concept. In observations, these cloud regimes are derived from cluster analysis of joint-histograms of cloud properties retrieved from passive satellite measurements. With the implementation of satellite simulators, comparable cloud regimes can be defined in models. This enables us to contrast the rainfall distributions of cloud regimes in 11 CMIP5 models to observations and decompose the rainfall errors by cloud regimes. Many models underestimate the rainfall from the organized convective cloud regime, which in observation provides half of the total rain in the tropics. Furthermore, these rainfall errors are relatively independent of the model's accuracy in representing this cloud regime. Error decomposition reveals that the biases are compensated in some models by a more frequent occurrence of the cloud regime and most models exhibit substantial cancellation of rainfall errors from different regimes and regions. Therefore, underlying relatively accurate total rainfall in models are significant cancellation of rainfall errors from different cloud types and regions. The fact that a good representation of clouds does not lead to appreciable improvement in rainfall suggests a certain disconnect in the cloud-precipitation processes of global climate models.},
author = {Tan, Jackson and Oreopoulos, Lazaros and Jakob, Christian and Jin, Daeho},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3806-7},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CFMIP2,CMIP5,Cloud regimes,ISCCP,Model Model rainfall,Tropics},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3301--3314},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Evaluating rainfall errors in global climate models through cloud regimes}},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Tan2020a,
abstract = {The role of topography on a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event in the Maritime Continent (MC) is explored using a regional model. Four simulations are conducted: lower-resolution (12 km) simulations using cumulus parameterization in the presence (LR) and absence (LR-Flat) of topography, and higher-resolution (4 km) simulations without cumulus param-eterization in the presence (HR) and absence (HR-Flat) of topography. In the LR simulation, the MJO remains unorganized with no clear eastward propagation, while the LR-Flat simulation captures the MJO and its eastward propagation across the MC. In the absence of cumulus parameterization, both HR and HR-Flat capture the MJO and show several similarities and differences compared to the LR and LR-Flat simulations. To better understand these differences, a moisture budget analysis is conducted during the passage of the MJO. In the LR-Flat simulation, vertical advection of moisture is increased to the east of the islands, leading to continuity in MJO-associated convection, continuity that was not present in the LR simulation. The increase in vertical advection in the absence of topography is due to an increase in the mean moisture advection by the anomalous vertical winds. In the middle of the MC, horizontal advection seems to be the most important for an uninterrupted eastward propagation of the MJO. The increase in the horizontal advection in the absence of topography is primarily due to an increase in the anomalous moisture advection by the mean zonal winds. To what extent the MJO was influenced by the upstream effect from the New Guinea topography was also explored. These results indicate that the important physical processes for MJO-associated convection may be different in different parts of the MC. Further implications of these results in the context of other recent studies on MJO propagation across the MC are discussed.},
author = {Tan, Haochen and Ray, Pallav and Barrett, Bradford S. and Tewari, Mukul and Moncrieff, Mitchell W.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4275-3},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {295--314},
title = {{Role of topography on the MJO in the maritime continent: a numerical case study}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4275-3},
volume = {55},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Tan2020,
abstract = {Changes in precipitation seasonality or redistribution of precipitation could exert significant influences on regional water resources availability and the well-being of the ecosystem. However, due to the nonuniform distribution of precipitation stations and intermittency of precipitation, precise detection of changes in precipitation seasonality on the global scale is absent. This study identifies and inter-compares trends in precipitation seasonality within seven precipitation datasets during the past three decades, including two gauge-based datasets derived from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), one remote sensing-retrieval obtained from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), three reanalysis datasets obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis II (NCEP2), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), and Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA2), and one precipitation dataset merged from above three types, Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation Version 1.2 (MSWEP{\_}V1.2). Values of two indices representing the precipitation seasonality, the normal seasonality index (SI) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), are estimated for each land grid in each precipitation dataset. The results show that DSI is more sensitive to changes in the temporal distribution of precipitation as it considers both annual amount and monthly fluctuations of precipitation, compared to SI that only considers monthly fluctuations of precipitation. There are large differences in precipitation seasonality at annual and climatologic scales between precipitation datasets for both SI and DSI. Within the seven precipitation datasets, PERSIANN-CDR SI and DSI show high precipitation seasonality while CRU SI, and ERA-Interim and MERRA2 DSI show the low precipitation seasonality in all continental regions. During 1988–2013, PERSIANN-CDR, NCEP2 and ERA-Interim show more widespread, statistically significant trends in precipitation seasonality than other four precipitation datasets. PERSIANN-CDR and NCEP2 show statistically significant decreases in SI over Middle East and Central Asia, while ERA-Interim, MERRA2 and MSWEP{\_}V1.2 SI increase over Central and South Africa. Increases in SI over the most of South America are significant. Regions of Canada/Greenland/Iceland, East and South Africa show significant increases in precipitation seasonality, while South Europe/Mediterranean and Central Africa show significant decreases in precipitation seasonality in most datasets. Although time series of seasonality indices values fluctuate correlatively in recent three decades, there are no regions on which all precipitation datasets show a consistent, statistically significant, positive or negative trend in indices of precipitation seasonality. These inconsistent changes in precipitation seasonality within various precipitation datasets imply the importance of choosing dataset when studying changes in regional precipitation seasonality.},
author = {Tan, Xuezhi and Wu, Yi and Liu, Bingjun and Chen, Shiling},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05158-w},
isbn = {0038202005158},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate change,Global regions,Precipitation datasets,Precipitation Seasonality indices},
number = {5-6},
pages = {3091--3108},
title = {{Inconsistent changes in global precipitation seasonality in seven precipitation datasets}},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Tanaka2017,
author = {Tanaka, Akemi and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Shiogama, Hideo and Hanasaki, Naota and Masaki, Yoshimitsu and Ito, Akihiko and Noda, Hibiki and Hijioka, Yasuaki and Emori, Seita},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-1911-6},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {775--782},
publisher = {Climatic Change},
title = {{On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-1911-6},
volume = {141},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Tandon_2018,
abstract = {Abstract Climate model projections of extreme precipitation intensity depend heavily on the region: some regions will experience exceptionally strong increases in extreme precipitation intensity, while other regions will experience decreases in extreme precipitation intensity. These regional variations are closely related to regional changes in large-scale ascent during extreme precipitation events?that is, ?extreme ascent??but the drivers of extreme ascent changes remain poorly understood. Using output from a large ensemble of the Canadian Earth System Model version 2, we show that subtropical changes in extreme ascent likely result from changes in the horizontal scale of ascending anomalies, which are in turn associated with changes in vertical stability. Near the equator, changes in the seasonal mean circulation may be an important factor influencing extreme ascent, but this finding is model dependent.},
annote = {subtropical changes in extreme precipitation linked to changes in horizontal scale of ascending anomalies and vertical stability},
author = {Tandon, Neil F. and Zhang, Xuebin and Sobel, Adam H.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076361},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {atmospheric climate change },
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2870--2878},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Understanding the Dynamics of Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Intensity}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017gl076361},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Tang2018,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs). Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC) forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP) pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901–2010, roughly one-third (31±17{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}{\%}) of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol–cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and the economy in the Mediterranean region.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Tang, Tao and Shindell, Drew and Samset, Bj{\o}rn H. and Boucher, Olivi{\'{e}}r and Forster, Piers M. and Hodnebrog, {\O}ivind and Myhre, Gunnar and Sillmann, Jana and Voulgarakis, Apostolos and Andrews, Timothy and Faluvegi, Gregory and Fl{\"{a}}schner, Dagmar and Iversen, Trond and Kasoar, Matthew and Kharin, Viatcheslav and Kirkev{\aa}g, Alf and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Olivi{\'{e}}, Dirk and Richardson, Thomas and Stjern, Camilla W. and Takemura, Toshihiko},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {8439--8452},
title = {{Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/8439/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Tang2013Nature,
abstract = {The past decade has seen an exceptional number of unprecedented summer extreme weather events1–4 in northern mid-latitudes, along with record declines in both summer Arctic sea ice5,6 and snow cover on high-latitude land7. The underlying mechanisms that link the shrinking cryosphere with summer extreme weather, however, remain unclear8–12. Here,we combine satellite observations of early summer snow cover and summer sea-ice extent13 with atmospheric reanalysis data14 to demonstrate associations between summer weather patterns in mid-latitudes and losses of snow and sea ice. Results suggest that the atmospheric circulation responds differently to changes in the ice and snow extents, with a stronger response to sea-ice loss, even though its reduction is half as large as that for the snowcover.Atmospheric changes associated with the combined snow/ice reductions reveal widespread upper-level height increases, weaker upper-level zonal winds at high latitudes, a more amplified upper-level pattern, and a general northward shift in the jet stream. More frequent extreme summer heat events over mid-latitude continents are linked with reduced sea ice and snow through these circulation changes.},
author = {Tang, Qiuhong and Zhang, Xuejun and Francis, Jennifer A.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2065},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {45--50},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fnclimate2065},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Tang2015,
abstract = {Large-eddy simulation is used to study the sensitivity of trade wind cumulus clouds to pertur-bations in cloud droplet number concentrations. We find that the trade wind cumulus system approaches a radiative-convective equilibrium state, modified by net warming and drying from imposed large-scale advective forcing. The system requires several days to reach equilibrium when cooling rates are specified but much less time, and with less sensitivity to cloud droplet number density, when radiation depends real-istically on the vertical distribution of water vapor. The transient behavior and the properties of the near-equilibrium cloud field depend on the microphysical state and therefore on the cloud droplet number den-sity, here taken as a proxy for the ambient aerosol. The primary response of the cloud field to changes in the cloud droplet number density is deepening of the cloud layer. This deepening leads to a decrease in rel-ative humidity and a faster evaporation of small clouds and cloud remnants constituting a negative lifetime effect. In the near-equilibrium regime, the decrease in cloud cover compensates much of the Twomey effect, i.e., the brightening of the clouds, and the overall aerosol effect on the albedo of the organized pre-cipitating cumulus cloud field is small.},
author = {Tang, Jinyun and Riley, William J. and Niu, Jie},
doi = {10.1002/2015MS000484},
isbn = {0140917101},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {1828--1848},
pmid = {368739800014},
title = {{Incorporating root hydraulic redistribution in CLM4.5: Effects on predicted site and global evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and water storage}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013MS000282 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015MS000484},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tao2012,
author = {Tao, Wei-Kuo and Chen, Jen-Ping and Li, Zhanqing and Wang, Chien and Zhang, Chidong},
doi = {10.1029/2011RG000369},
issn = {87551209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {aerosols,convection,precipitation},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {RG2001},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Impact of aerosols on convective clouds and precipitation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011RG000369},
volume = {50},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Tao2015,
author = {Tao, Li and Zhao, Jiuwei and Li, Tim},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4258},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {nov},
number = {13},
pages = {3969--3978},
title = {{Trend analysis of tropical intraseasonal oscillations in the summer and winter during 1982–2009}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4258},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tapiador2016,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Disruptions of the spatiotemporal distribution of surface precipitation that are induced by global warming may affect Earth's climate more significantly than changes in the total precipitation amount. Identifying such disruptions at global scales is not straightforward, as it requires disentangling a weak signal from comprehensive, gapless data in a 5-D configuration space whose dimensions are latitude, longitude, time, power, and period. Drawing on reliable, state-of-the-art climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) experiments and using well-tested analytical methods, clear changes in the global precipitation cycles have been found for the simulated period 1862–2003. It has also been found that the disruptions may be attributable to anthropogenic forcing. The disruptions are relevant enough to envision significant changes in precipitation timing if human greenhouse gas emissions continue to accumulate in the future. It is noteworthy that the effects of anthropogenic forcings have been found not predominantly in the intra-annual cycles, i.e., in the short-term weather patterns that would be indicative of local effects, but rather in the interannual planetary long-term variability of the atmosphere. This suggests a global, distributed effect of the anthropogenic forcings on precipitation, which in turn is indicative of changes in the precipitation patterns linked with changes in the thermodynamics of the precipitation microphysics and to a lesser extent with the dynamical aspects of the precipitation processes.},
author = {Tapiador, Francisco J. and Behrangi, Ali and Haddad, Ziad S. and Katsanos, Dimitris and de Castro, Manuel},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD023406},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2161--2177},
title = {{Disruptions in precipitation cycles: Attribution to anthropogenic forcing}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015JD023406},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Tapiador2019b,
abstract = {Climate classifications based on temperature and precipitation measurements are increasingly being used for environmental and climate change studies. Using three classification methods (K{\"{o}}ppen, Extended K{\"{o}}ppen, and Holdridge) and one observational dataset for present climate (CRU, Climate Research Unit), we show that GCMs have bridged the gap that led to the emergence of RCMs thirty years ago, as GCMs can now provide global climate classifications whose accuracy and precision are comparable to those of regional outputs of the RCMs. Projections of high-resolution GCMs for future climates under the assumptions of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85) can therefore be used as a primary source for climate change and global warming studies at high resolution. This paper provides comprehensive, model-derived climate classifications for the entire planet, using RCMs and two GCMs for present and future climate-change scenarios, and discusses how well the models actually represent the climates of the world when compared with reference, ground validation data. It turns out that both GCMs and RCMs appear still limited to provide practical estimates of the world climates even for present climate conditions. The modeling of precipitation remains the Achilles' heel of models and thus of multidimensional indices, which are very sensitive to this variable. The conclusion is that model outputs at regional scale need to be taken with extreme caution without venturing into informing policies presenting potentially large societal impacts. Nonetheless, the role of models as privileged tools to advance our scientific knowledge of the Earth's system remains undisputed.},
author = {Tapiador, F. J. and Moreno, Ra{\'{u}}l and Navarro, Andr{\'{e}}s and S{\'{a}}nchez, Jos{\'{e}} Luis and Garc{\'{i}}a-Ortega, Eduardo},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.05.022},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Climate classifications,Earth System Models,Global Climate Models,Regional Climate Models},
number = {April},
pages = {107--121},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.05.022},
volume = {228},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tapiador2020,
abstract = {Regional Climate Models (RCMs) emerged 30 years ago as a transient tool to provide detailed estimates of meteorological parameters (temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, and others) for regional applications. Their dynamic downscaling approach was intended to fill the gap between the global but coarse estimates of Global Climate/Circulation Models (GCMs), which typically had a 2.5° resolution, and practical requirements such as estimating precipitation for hydrologic operations in small basins under conditions of increased greenhouse gas emissions. Over the three decades, RCMs provided data to inform policies and helped to increase knowledge of the present climate and the impacts of global warming at regional level. This paper describes the major achievements of RCMs, critically reviewing the main issues and limitations that have been featured in the literature. It puts forward a controversial claim aimed at starting a debate in the climate community, namely, that the cycle of RCM research has reached an end for informing policies. This is because these models have recently been superseded for that purpose by high-resolution GCMs and Earth System Models (ESM).},
author = {Tapiador, F. J. and Navarro, Andr{\'{e}}s and Moreno, Ra{\'{u}}l and S{\'{a}}nchez, Jos{\'{e}} Luis and Garc{\'{i}}a-Ortega, Eduardo},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104785},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
number = {October 2019},
pages = {104785},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Regional climate models: 30 years of dynamical downscaling}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104785},
volume = {235},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Tapiador2019a,
abstract = {The microphysics of precipitation has to be parameterized in Earth System Models (ESM), Global Circulation/Climate Models (GCMs), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs), Regional Climate Models (RCMs), and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models since the relevant physical processes operate at centimeter scale, thus well below the finest model grid size. While more than 20 bulk microphysics schemes have been described in the literature, they all have a number of empirical values and work under a set of reasonable assumptions that treat the problems in a simplified way. This paper discusses these choices in order to present a homogenous account of the physics within the parameterizations, and illustrates how observations can help improve our present understanding of precipitation physics. The Weather and Forecasting Research model (WRF), and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are used as prototypes of full-confidence models. This contribution can also help frame and advance research into the human-induced, ongoing climate change as those parameterizations are instrumental for the appropriate ESM modeling of future climates.},
author = {Tapiador, Francisco J. and S{\'{a}}nchez, Jos{\'{e}} Luis and Garc{\'{i}}a-Ortega, Eduardo},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.010},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
pages = {214--238},
title = {{Empirical values and assumptions in the microphysics of numerical models}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016980951830766X},
volume = {215},
year = {2019}
}
@article{tds15,
abstract = {This study extends the heated condensation framework (HCF) presented in Tawfik and Dirmeyer to include variables for describing the convective background state of the atmosphere used to quantify the contribution of the atmosphere to convective initiation within the context of land–atmosphere coupling. In particular, the ability for the full suite of HCF variables to 1) quantify the amount of latent and sensible heat energy necessary for convective initiation, 2) identify the transition from moistening advantage to boundary layer growth advantage, 3) identify locally originating convection, and 4) compare models and observations, directly highlighting biases in the convective state, is demonstrated. These capabilities are illustrated for a clear-sky and convectively active day over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Southern Great Plains central station using observations, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) operational model, and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The clear-sky day had a higher and unattainable convective threshold, making convective initiation unlikely. The convectively active day had a lower threshold that was attained by midafternoon, reflecting local convective triggering. Compared to observations, RUC tended to have the most difficulty representing the convective state and captured the threshold for the clear-sky case only because of compensating biases in the moisture and temperature profiles. Despite capturing the observed moisture profile very well, a stronger surface inversion in NARR returned overestimates in the convective threshold. The companion paper applies the HCF variables introduced here across the continental United States to examine the climatological behavior of convective initiation and local land–atmosphere coupling.},
author = {Tawfik, Ahmed B and Dirmeyer, Paul A and Santanello, Joseph A.},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-14-0117.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {1929--1945},
title = {{The Heated Condensation Framework. Part I: Description and Southern Great Plains Case Study}},
url = {10.1175/JHM-D-14-0117.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0117.1},
volume = {16},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tawfik2015,
abstract = {This is Part II of a two-part study introducing the heated condensation framework (HCF), which quantifies the potential convective state of the atmosphere in terms of land–atmosphere interactions. Part I introduced the full suite of HCF variables and applied them to case studies with observations and models over a single location in the southern Great Plains. It was shown in Part I that the HCF was capable of identifying locally initiated convection and quantifying energetically favorable pathways for initiation. Here, the HCF is applied to the entire conterminous United States and the climatology of convective initiation (CI) in relation to local land–atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is explored for 34 summers (June–August) using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and observations. NARR is found to be capable of capturing the convective threshold (buoyant mixing potential temperature $\theta$BM) and energy advantage transition (energy advantage potential temperature $\theta$adv) for most of the United States. However, there are compensating biases in the components of moisture qmix and temperature q*, resulting in low $\theta$BM biases for the wrong reason. The HCF has been used to show that local CI occurred over the Rocky Mountains and the southern Great Plains 35{\%}–65{\%} of the time. Finally, the LoCo process chain has been recast in light of the HCF. Both positive and negative soil moisture–convective feedbacks are possible, with negative feedbacks producing a stronger response in CI likelihood under weak convective inhibition. Positive feedbacks are present but weaker.},
author = {Tawfik, Ahmed B and Dirmeyer, Paul A and Santanello, Joseph A.},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-14-0118.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {1946--1961},
title = {{The Heated Condensation Framework. Part II: Climatological Behavior of Convective Initiation and Land–Atmosphere Coupling over the Conterminous United States}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0118.1},
volume = {16},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Taylor2013b,
abstract = {Feedback between soil moisture and precipitation influence climate variability in semiarid regions. However, serious concerns exist about the ability of coarse-scale global atmospheric models to depict one key aspect of the feedback loop, namely the sensitivity of daytime convection to soil moisture. Here we compare regional simulations using a single model, run at different spatial resolutions, and with convective parameterizations switched on or off against Sahelian observations. Convection-permitting simulations at 4 and 12 km capture the observed relationships between soil moisture and convective triggering, emphasizing the importance of surface-driven mesoscale dynamics. However, with the inclusion of the convection scheme at 12 km, the behavior of the model fundamentally alters, switching from negative to positive feedback. Similar positive feedback is found in 9 out of 10 Regional Climate Models run at 50 km. These results raise questions about the accuracy of the feedback in regional models based on current convective parameterizations.},
author = {Taylor, Christopher M. and Birch, Cathryn E. and Parker, Douglas J. and Dixon, Nick and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Nikulin, Grigory and Lister, Grenville M.S.},
doi = {10.1002/2013GL058511},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Sahel,convective initiation,land-atmosphere feedback,soil moisture},
number = {23},
pages = {6213--6218},
title = {{Modeling soil moisture–precipitation feedback in the Sahel: Importance of spatial scale versus convective parameterization}},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Taylor2015GRL,
abstract = {Feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are important for understanding hydroclimatic variability in many regions. However, much uncertainty remains about how land surface fluxes influence the initiation of deep convection locally. While some studies consider only atmospheric and soil profiles, in a one-dimensional sense, others have argued that horizontal variability in fluxes plays an important role in convective triggering, via mesoscale circulations. This paper presents the first comprehensive observational analysis over Europe linking convective initiation to soil moisture, based on satellite observations of cloud top and land surface temperature, and soil moisture. The results show that convective initiations are favored on the downwind side of dry surfaces, close to wetter areas. The signal is clearest following dry periods and under light winds, consistent with forcing by a mesoscale circulation. Overall, the detected signal in Europe is weaker than in previous Sahelian analysis, but key spatial characteristics are essentially the same.},
annote = {Over Europe, convective initiation favored on downwind side of dry surfaces, close to wetter areas, especially following dry periods and under light winds while the detected signal is consistent with but weaker than for the Sahel.},
author = {Taylor, Christopher M.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064030},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {convective initiation},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {4631--4638},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Detecting soil moisture impacts on convective initiation in Europe}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2015gl064030},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{ttkmnsm13,
abstract = {Groundwater recharge sustains the groundwater resources$\backslash$r$\backslash$non which there is global dependence for drinking water and$\backslash$r$\backslash$nirrigated agriculture1. For many communities, groundwater is$\backslash$r$\backslash$nthe only perennial source of water. Here, we present a newly$\backslash$r$\backslash$ncompiled 55-year record of groundwater-level observations in$\backslash$r$\backslash$nan aquifer of central Tanzania that reveals the highly episodic occurrence of recharge resulting from anomalously intense seasonal rainfall. Episodic recharge interrupts multiannual recessions in groundwater levels, maintaining the water security of the groundwater-dependent communities in this region. This long-term record of groundwater storage changes in the semi-arid tropics demonstrates a nonlinear relationship between rainfall and recharge wherein intense seasonal rainfall associated with the El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode of climate variability2,3 contributes disproportionately to recharge. Analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 and AR5 multi-model ensembles for the twenty-first century indicates that projected increases in extreme monthly rainfall, responsible for observed recharge, are of much greater magnitude than changes to$\backslash$r$\backslash$nmean rainfall. Increased use of groundwater may therefore$\backslash$r$\backslash$nprove a potentially viable adaptation to enhanced riability in surface-water resources and soil moisture resulting from climate change4–7. Uncertainty in the projected behaviour of the El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation and associated teleconnections remains, however, high8.},
author = {Taylor, R G and Todd, M C and Kongola, Lister and Maurice, Louise and Nahozya, Emmanuel and Sanga, Hosea and MacDonald, Alan M.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1731},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
pages = {374--378},
pmid = {23663506},
title = {{Evidence of the dependence of groundwater resources on extreme rainfall in East Africa}},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Taylor2017,
abstract = {Since 1982, extreme daily rainfall in the western Sahel has increased persistently, owing to a warmer Sahara which has led to increased wind shear and an increase in intense storms.},
author = {Taylor, Christopher M. and Belusic, Danijel and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Parker, Douglas J. and Vischel, Th{\'{e}}o and Bock, Olivier and Harris, Phil P. and Janicot, Serge and Klein, Cornelia and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Belu{\v{s}}i{\'{c}}, Danijel and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Parker, Douglas J. and Vischel, Th{\'{e}}o and Bock, Olivier and Harris, Phil P. and Janicot, Serge and Klein, Cornelia and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Belusic, Danijel and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Parker, Douglas J. and Vischel, Th{\'{e}}o and Bock, Olivier and Harris, Phil P. and Janicot, Serge and Klein, Cornelia and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Belu{\v{s}}i{\'{c}}, Danijel and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Parker, Douglas J. and Vischel, Th{\'{e}}o and Bock, Olivier and Harris, Phil P. and Janicot, Serge and Klein, Cornelia and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my},
doi = {10.1038/nature22069},
isbn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Atmospheric science,Hydrology},
month = {apr},
number = {7651},
pages = {475--478},
pmid = {24778244},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22069 http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature22069},
volume = {544},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Taylor2013,
abstract = {As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.$\backslash$nView full text},
author = {Taylor, Richard G. and Scanlon, Bridget and D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and Rodell, Matt and {Van Beek}, Rens and Wada, Yoshihide and Longuevergne, Laurent and Leblanc, Marc and Famiglietti, James S. and Edmunds, Mike and Konikow, Leonard and Green, Timothy R. and Chen, Jianyao and Taniguchi, Makoto and Bierkens, Marc F.P. and Macdonald, Alan and Fan, Ying and Maxwell, Reed M. and Yechieli, Yossi and Gurdak, Jason J. and Allen, Diana M. and Shamsudduha, Mohammad and Hiscock, Kevin and Yeh, Pat J.F. and Holman, Ian and Treidel, Holger},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1744},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {4},
pages = {322--329},
title = {{Ground water and climate change}},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@misc{Tebaldi2014,
abstract = {Abstract We review the ideas behind the pattern scaling technique, and focus on its value and limitations given its use for impact assessment and within integrated assessment models. We present estimates of patterns for temperature and precipitation change from the latest transient simulations available from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on multi-model mean patterns, and characterizing the sources of variability of these patterns across models and scenarios. The patterns are compared to those obtained from the previous set of experiments, under CMIP3. We estimate the significance of the emerging differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 results through a bootstrap exercise, while also taking into account the fundamental differences in scenario and model ensemble composition. All in all, the robustness of the geographical features in patterns of temperature and precipitation, when computed as multi-model means, is confirmed by this comparison. The intensity of the change (in both the warmer and cooler areas with respect to global temperature change, and the drier and wetter regions) is overall heightened per degree of global warming in the ensemble mean of the newsimulations. The presence of stabilized scenarios in the new set of simulations allows investigation of the performance of the technique once the system has gotten close to equilibrium. Overall, the well established validity of the technique in approximating the forced signal of change under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is confirmed. This},
author = {Tebaldi, Claudia and Arblaster, Julie M},
booktitle = {Climatic Change},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9},
isbn = {0165-0009 1573-1480},
issn = {01650009},
number = {3},
pages = {459--471},
title = {{Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations}},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Tebaldi2018,
abstract = {Global climate policy is increasingly debating the value of very low warming targets, yet not many experiments conducted with global climate models in their fully coupled versions are currently available to help inform studies of the corresponding impacts. This raises the question whether a map of warming or precipitation change in a world 1.5 °C warmer than preindustrial can be emulated from existing simulations that reach higher warming targets, or whether entirely new simulations are required. Here we show that also for this type of low warming in strong mitigation scenarios, climate change signals are quite linear as a function of global temperature. Therefore, emulation techniques amounting to linear rescaling on the basis of global temperature change ratios (like simple pattern scaling) provide a viable way forward. The errors introduced are small relative to the spread in the forced response to a given scenario that we can assess from a multi-model ensemble. They are also small relative to the noise introduced into the estimates of the forced response by internal variability within a single model, which we can assess from either control simulations or initial condition ensembles. Challenges arise when scaling inadvertently reduces the inter-model spread or suppresses the internal variability, both important sources of uncertainty for impact assessment, or when the scenarios have very different characteristics in the composition of the forcings. Taking advantage of an available suite of coupled model simulations under low-warming and intermediate scenarios, we evaluate the accuracy of these emulation techniques and show that they are unlikely to represent a substantial contribution to the total uncertainty.},
author = {Tebaldi, Claudia and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabef2},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {BRACE1.5,Paris agreement,benefits of mitigation,climate model emulation,low-warming scenarios},
number = {5},
pages = {055006},
title = {{Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets}},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{tegen2018climate,
author = {Tegen, Ina and Schepanski, Kerstin},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0086-1},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {1--10},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Climate Feedback on Aerosol Emission and Atmospheric Concentrations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-018-0086-1},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{Teng2019a,
abstract = {Purpose of Review: While the influence of climate change on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation remains uncertain, hypotheses based on linear waveguide dynamics have been proposed suggesting amplification of circumglobal quasi-stationary Rossby wave events, which may have led to persistent and high-impact extremes in recent boreal summers. It is thus useful to synthesize these hypotheses and to discuss limitations of this simplified dynamical framework for explaining observed features. Recent Findings: The hypothesis that climate change can alter the basic circulation state and thereby enhance circumglobal waveguide teleconnections by increasing their resonance has been proposed but has not yet been verified with models. Furthermore, there is no convincing evidence that the variability of disturbances within the waveguide will increase in future climates projected by the CMIP5 models. On the other hand, recent research indicates that enhanced diabatic heating, particularly that associated with increasing aridity in the mid-latitude, can stimulate the jet stream waveguides, thus suggesting an alternative mechanism which, if properly modeled, could lead to more high-amplitude circumglobal planetary wave events. Summary: There could be circumstances that lead to resonant amplification of waveguide Rossby waves in the boreal summer, but an alternative mechanism that involves changes in the forcing rather than the mean state deserves closer attention.},
author = {Teng, Haiyan and Branstator, Grant},
booktitle = {Current Climate Change Reports},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-019-00150-x},
issn = {21986061},
keywords = {Circumglobal teleconnection,Extremes,Quasi-stationary Rossby waves,Waveguide teleconnection},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {421--432},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Amplification of Waveguide Teleconnections in the Boreal Summer}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40641-019-00150-x},
volume = {5},
year = {2019}
}
@article{tc-6-1541-2012,
author = {Tennant, C and Menounos, B and Wheate, R and Clague, J J},
doi = {10.5194/tc-6-1541-2012},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
number = {6},
pages = {1541--1552},
title = {{Area change of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, 1919 to 2006}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/6/1541/2012/},
volume = {6},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Steege2015,
abstract = {Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36{\%} and up to 57{\%} of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22{\%}. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world's {\textgreater}40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century.},
author = {ter Steege, Hans and Pitman, Nigel C. A. and Killeen, Timothy J. and Laurance, William F. and Peres, Carlos A. and Guevara, Juan Ernesto and Salom{\~{a}}o, Rafael P. and Castilho, Carolina V. and Amaral, I{\^{e}}da Le{\~{a}}o and {de Almeida Matos}, Francisca Dion{\'{i}}zia and {de Souza Coelho}, Luiz and Magnusson, William E. and Phillips, Oliver L. and {de Andrade Lima Filho}, Diogenes and {de Jesus Veiga Carim}, Marcelo and Irume, Mariana Vict{\'{o}}ria and Martins, Maria Pires and Molino, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Sabatier, Daniel and Wittmann, Florian and L{\'{o}}pez, Dairon C{\'{a}}rdenas and {da Silva Guimar{\~{a}}es}, Jos{\'{e}} Renan and Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo and Vargas, Percy N{\'{u}}{\~{n}}ez and Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto and Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa and Terborgh, John and Casula, Katia Regina and Montero, Juan Carlos and Feldpausch, Ted R. and {Honorio Coronado}, Euridice N. and Montoya, Alvaro Javier Duque and Zartman, Charles Eugene and Mostacedo, Bonifacio and Vasquez, Rodolfo and Assis, Rafael L. and Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante and Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni and Andrade, Ana and Camargo, Jos{\'{e}} Lu{\'{i}}s and Laurance, Susan G. W. and Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendon{\c{c}}a and Marimon, Beatriz S. and Marimon, Ben-Hur and Costa, Fl{\'{a}}via and Targhetta, Natalia and Vieira, Ima C{\'{e}}lia Guimar{\~{a}}es and Brienen, Roel and Castellanos, Hern{\'{a}}n and Duivenvoorden, Joost F. and Mogoll{\'{o}}n, Hugo F. and Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez and {Aymard C.}, Gerardo A. and Comiskey, James A. and Damasco, Gabriel and D{\'{a}}vila, N{\'{a}}llarett and Garc{\'{i}}a-Villacorta, Roosevelt and Diaz, Pablo Roberto Stevenson and Vincentini, Alberto and Emilio, Thaise and Levis, Carolina and Schietti, Juliana and Souza, Priscila and Alonso, Alfonso and Dallmeier, Francisco and Ferreira, Leandro Valle and Neill, David and Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro and Arroyo, Luzmila and Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes and Souza, Fernanda Coelho and do Amaral, D{\'{a}}rio Dantas and Gribel, Rogerio and Luize, Bruno Garcia and Pansonato, Marcelo Petrati and Venticinque, Eduardo and Fine, Paul and Toledo, Marisol and Baraloto, Chris and Cer{\'{o}}n, Carlos and Engel, Julien and Henkel, Terry W. and Jimenez, Eliana M. and Maas, Paul and Mora, Maria Cristina Pe{\~{n}}uela and Petronelli, Pascal and Revilla, Juan David Cardenas and Silveira, Marcos and Stropp, Juliana and Thomas-Caesar, Raquel and Baker, Tim R. and Daly, Doug and Paredes, Marcos R{\'{i}}os and da Silva, Naara Ferreira and Fuentes, Alfredo and J{\o}rgensen, Peter M{\o}ller and Sch{\"{o}}ngart, Jochen and Silman, Miles R. and Arboleda, Nicol{\'{a}}s Casta{\~{n}}o and Cintra, Bruno Bar{\c{c}}ante Ladvocat and Valverde, Fernando Cornejo and {Di Fiore}, Anthony and Phillips, Juan Fernando and van Andel, Tinde R. and von Hildebrand, Patricio and Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques and {de Matos Bonates}, Luiz Carlos and de Castro, Deborah and {de Sousa Farias}, Emanuelle and Gonzales, Therany and Guillaumet, Jean-Louis and Hoffman, Bruce and Malhi, Yadvinder and {de Andrade Miranda}, Ires Paula and Prieto, Adriana and Rudas, Agust{\'{i}}n and Ruschell, Ademir R. and Silva, Natalino and Vela, C{\'{e}}sar I. A. and Vos, Vincent A. and Zent, Egl{\'{e}}e L. and Zent, Stanford and Cano, Angela and Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade and Oliveira, Alexandre A. and Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma and Ramos, Jos{\'{e}} Ferreira and Sierra, Rodrigo and Tirado, Milton and Medina, Maria Natalia Uma{\~{n}}a and van der Heijden, Geertje and Torre, Emilio Vilanova and Vriesendorp, Corine and Wang, Ophelia and Young, Kenneth R. and Baider, Claudia and Balslev, Henrik and de Castro, Natalia and Farfan-Rios, William and Ferreira, Cid and Mendoza, Casimiro and Mesones, Italo and Torres-Lezama, Armando and Giraldo, Ligia Estela Urrego and Villarroel, Daniel and Zagt, Roderick and Alexiades, Miguel N. and Garcia-Cabrera, Karina and Hernandez, Lionel and Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau and Milliken, William and Cuenca, Walter Palacios and Pansini, Susamar and Pauletto, Daniela and Arevalo, Freddy Ramirez and Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe and {Valderrama Sandoval}, Elvis H. and Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1500936},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {nov},
number = {10},
title = {{Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1500936},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Terray2012,
abstract = {AbstractChanges in the global water cycle are expected as a result of anthropogenic climate change, but large uncertainties exist in how these changes will be manifest regionally. This is especially the case over the tropical oceans, where observed estimates of precipitation and evaporation disagree considerably. An alternative approach is to examine changes in near-surface salinity. Datasets of observed tropical Pacific and Atlantic near-surface salinity combined with climate model simulations are used to assess the possible causes and significance of salinity changes over the late twentieth century. Two different detection methodologies are then applied to evaluate the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface salinity can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change.Basin-averaged observed changes are shown to enhance salinity geographical contrasts between the two basins: the Pacific is getting fresher and the Atlantic saltier. While the observed Pacific and interbasin-averaged sal...},
author = {Terray, Laurent and Corre, Lola and Cravatte, Sophie and Delcroix, Thierry and Reverdin, Gilles and Ribes, Aur{\'{e}}lien and Terray, Laurent and Corre, Lola and Cravatte, Sophie and Delcroix, Thierry and Reverdin, Gilles and Ribes, Aur{\'{e}}lien},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Coupled models,Hydrologic cycle,Pattern detection,Salinity},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {958--977},
title = {{Near-Surface Salinity as Nature's Rain Gauge to Detect Human Influence on the Tropical Water Cycle}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05025.1},
volume = {25},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Terray2018,
author = {Terray, P and Sooraj, K. P. and Masson, S. and Krishna, R. P. M. and Samson, G. and Prajeesh, A. G.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3812-9},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Deserts,Global coupled models,Heat low,Monsoons,Surface albedo,Tropical rainfall climatology,global coupled models,heat low,monsoons,tropical rainfall climatology},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3413--3439},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Towards a realistic simulation of boreal summer tropical rainfall climatology in state-of-the-art coupled models: role of the background snow-free land albedo}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3812-9 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3812-9},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Terray2021,
abstract = {Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall and El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit an inverse relationship during boreal summer, which is one of the roots of ISM interannual variability and its seasonal predictability. Here we document how current climate and seasonal prediction models simulate the timing and amplitude of this ISM-ENSO teleconnection. Many Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) do simulate a simultaneous inverse relationship between ENSO and ISM, though with a large spread. However, most of them show significant negative correlations before ISM, which are at odd with observations. Consistent with this systematic error, simulated Ni{\~{n}}o-3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability has erroneous high amplitude during boreal spring and ISM rainfall variability is also too strong during the first part of ISM. The role of the Indian Ocean (IO) in modulating the ISM-ENSO relationships is further investigated using dedicated experiments with the SINTEX-F2 CGCM. Decoupled tropical Pacific and IO experiments are conducted to assess the direct relationship between ISM and IO SSTs on one hand, and the specific role of IO feedback on ENSO on the other hand. The direct effect of IO SSTs on ISM is weak and insignificant at the interannual time scale in the Pacific decoupled experiment. On the other hand, IO decoupled experiments demonstrate that El Ni{\~{n}}o shifts rapidly to La Ni{\~{n}}a when ocean–atmosphere coupling is active in the whole IO or only in its western part. This IO negative feedback is mostly active during the decaying phase of El Ni{\~{n}}o, which is accompanied by a basin-wide warming in the IO, and significantly modulates the length of ENSO events in our simulations. This IO feedback operates through a modulation of the Walker circulation over the IO, which strengthens and shifts eastward an anomalous anticyclone centered on the Philippine Sea and associated easterly wind anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific during boreal winter. In turn, these atmospheric anomalies lead to a fast ENSO turnabout via oceanic adjustement processes mediated by eastward propagating upwelling Kelvin waves. An experiment in which only the SouthEast Indian Ocean (SEIO) is decoupled, demonstrates that the equatorial SST gradient in the IO during boreal winter plays a fundamental role in the efficiency of IO feedback. In this experiment, simulated ISM-ENSO lead-lag correlations match closely the observations. This success is associated with removal of erroneous SEIO SST variability during boreal winter in the SEIO decoupled experiment. Finally, it is illustrated that most CMIP5 CGCMs exhibit similar SST errors in the SEIO during boreal winter in addition to an exagerated SEIO SST variability during boreal fall.},
author = {Terray, Pascal and Sooraj, K. P. and Masson, S{\'{e}}bastien and Prodhomme, Chlo{\'{e}}},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05484-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {329--356},
title = {{Anatomy of the Indian Summer Monsoon and ENSO relationships in state-of-the-art CGCMs: role of the tropical Indian Ocean}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05484-z},
volume = {56},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Teuling2013,
abstract = {Drought is typically associated with a lack of precipitation, whereas the contribution of evapotranspiration and runoff to drought evolution is not well understood. Here we use unique long-term observations made in four headwater catchments in central and western Europe to reconstruct storage anomalies and study the drivers of storage anomaly evolution during drought. We provide observational evidence for the "drought-paradox" in that region: a consistent and significant increase in evapotranspiration during drought episodes, which acts to amplify the storage anomalies. In contrast, decreases in runoff act to limit storage anomalies. Our findings stress the need for the correct representation of evapotranspiration and runoff processes in drought indices. {\textcopyright} 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Teuling, Adriaan J. and {Van Loon}, Anne F. and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Lehner, Irene and Aubinet, Marc and Heinesch, Bernard and Bernhofer, Christian and Gr{\"{u}}nwald, Thomas and Prasse, Heiko and Spank, Uwe},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50495},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Europe,catchment,drought,evapotranspiration},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {2071--2075},
title = {{Evapotranspiration amplifies European summer drought}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/grl.50495},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Thackeray2015b,
author = {Thackeray, Chad W. and Fletcher, Christopher G. and Derksen, Chris},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD023325},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {10.1002/2015JD023325 and albedo,climate models,model skill,observations,seasonal cycle},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {5831--5849},
title = {{Quantifying the skill of CMIP5 models in simulating seasonal albedo and snow cover evolution}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015JD023325},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Thackeray2016b,
abstract = {Over the past decade, substantial progress has been made in improving our understanding of surface albedo feedbacks, where changes in surface albedo from warming (cooling) can cause increases (decreases) in absorbed solar radiation, amplifying the initial warming (cooling). The goal of this review is to synthesize and assess recent research into the feedback caused by changing continental snow cover, or snow albedo feedback (SAF). Four main topics are evaluated: (i) the importance of SAF to the global energy budget, (ii) estimates of SAF from various data sources, (iii) factors influencing the spread in SAF, and (iv) outstanding issues related to our understanding of the physical processes that control SAF (and their uncertainties). SAF is found to exert a small influence on a global scale, with amplitude of ? 0.1 Wm?2 K?1, roughly 7{\%} of the strength of water vapor feedback. However, SAF is an important driver of regional climate change over Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical land, where observation-based estimates show a peak feedback of around 1{\%} decrease in surface albedo per degree of warming during spring. Viewed collectively, the current generation of climate models represent this process accurately, but several models still use outdated parameterizations of snow and surface albedo that contribute to biases that impact the simulation of SAF. This discussion serves to synthesize and evaluate previously published literature, while highlighting promising directions being taken at the forefront of research such as high resolution modeling and the use of large ensembles.},
author = {Thackeray, Chad W. and Fletcher, Christopher G.},
doi = {10.1177/0309133315620999},
issn = {0309-1333},
journal = {Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {392--408},
publisher = {SAGE PublicationsSage UK: London, England},
title = {{Snow albedo feedback}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0309133315620999},
volume = {40},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Thackeray2018GRL,
abstract = {Abstract A highly uncertain aspect of anthropogenic climate change is the rate at which the global hydrologic cycle intensifies. The future change in global‐mean precipitation per degree warming, or hydrologic sensitivity, exhibits a threefold spread (1‐3{\%}K‐1) in current global climate models. In this study, we find that the intermodel spread in this value is associated with a significant portion of variability in future projections of extreme precipitation in the tropics, extending also into subtropical atmospheric river corridors. Additionally, there is a very tight intermodel relationship between changes in extreme and non‐extreme precipitation, whereby models compensate for increasing extreme precipitation events by decreasing weak‐moderate events. Another factor linked to changes in precipitation extremes is model resolution, with higher resolution models showing a larger increase in heavy extremes. These results highlight ways various aspects of hydrologic cycle intensification are linked in models and shed new light on the task of constraining precipitation extremes. Plain Language Summary The global water cycle is expected to intensify under climate change and can be generally characterized by greater rainfall and surface evaporation in the future. However, the rate at which the globally‐averaged precipitation increases is highly variable among different climate models. In this paper, we relate the intermodel variability in global water cycle intensification to differences in model projections of heavy precipitation in tropical and some extratropical regions. We also find that models consistently experience a trade‐off between increasing heavy and decreasing light‐moderate precipitation: Models with larger future increases in heavy precipitation exhibit greater compensating declines in light‐moderate rainfall. Differences in heavy precipitation changes are also tied to model resolution. Our study helps to provide new insight on the factors shaping projections of future precipitation extremes, which have strong implications for water resources, natural hazard risks associated with flooding, and ecosystem stability.},
author = {Thackeray, Chad W. and DeAngelis, Anthony M. and Hall, Alex and Swain, Daniel L. and Qu, Xin},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079698},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,extreme  climate models hydrologic model uncertainty},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {11343--11351},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL079698 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079698},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Thackeray2016a,
abstract = {AbstractProjections of twenty-first-century Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring snow cover extent (SCE) from two climate model ensembles are analyzed to characterize their uncertainty. Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble exhibits variability resulting from both model differences and internal climate variability, whereas spread generated from a Canadian Earth System Model–Large Ensemble (CanESM-LE) experiment is solely a result of internal variability. The analysis shows that simulated 1981–2010 spring SCE trends are slightly weaker than observed (using an ensemble of snow products). Spring SCE is projected to decrease by −3.7{\%} ± 1.1{\%} decade−1 within the CMIP5 ensemble over the twenty-first century. SCE loss is projected to accelerate for all spring months over the twenty-first century, with the exception of June (because most snow in this month has melted by the latter half of the twenty-first century). For 30-yr spring SCE trends over the twenty-first century, internal variability estimated from CanESM-LE is substantial, but smaller than intermodel spread from CMIP5. Additionally, internal variability in NH extratropical land warming trends can affect SCE trends in the near future (R2 = 0.45), while variability in winter precipitation can also have a significant (but lesser) impact on SCE trends. On the other hand, a majority of the intermodel spread is driven by differences in simulated warming (dominant in March–May) and snow cover available for melt (dominant in June). The strong temperature–SCE linkage suggests that model uncertainty in projections of SCE could be potentially reduced through improved simulation of spring season warming over land.},
author = {Thackeray, Chad W. and Fletcher, Christopher G. and Mudryk, Lawrence R. and Derksen, Chris},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0341.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate variability,General circulation models,Model evaluation/performance,Satellite observations,Snow cover,Trends},
number = {23},
pages = {8647--8663},
title = {{Quantifying the uncertainty in historical and future simulations of Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover}},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Thomas2015,
author = {Thomas, E R and Hosking, J S and Tuckwell, R R and Warren, R A and Ludlow, E C},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL065750},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {10.1002/2015GL065750 and snowfall,Amundsen Sea Low,West Antarctica,ice cores},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {9387--9393},
title = {{Twentieth century increase in snowfall in coastal West Antarctica}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL065750},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{cp-13-1491-2017,
abstract = {Here we present Antarctic snow accumulation variability at the regional scale over the past 1000 years. A total of 79 ice core snow accumulation records were gathered and assigned to seven geographical regions, separating the high-accumulation coastal zones below 2000 m of elevation from the dry central Antarctic Plateau. The regional composites of annual snow accumulation were evaluated against modelled surface mass balance (SMB) from RACMO2.3p2 and precipitation from ERA-Interim reanalysis. With the exception of the Weddell Sea coast, the low-elevation composites capture the regional precipitation and SMB variability as defined by the models. The central Antarctic sites lack coherency and either do not represent regional precipitation or indicate the model inability to capture relevant precipitation processes in the cold, dry central plateau. Our results show that SMB for the total Antarctic Ice Sheet (including ice shelves) has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt decadeg 1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of ∼ 0.02 mm decadeg 1 since 1800 and ∼ 0.04 mm decadeg 1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula (∼ 75 {\%}) where the annual average SMB during the most recent decade (2001-2010) is 123 ± 44 Gt yrg 1 higher than the annual average during the first decade of the 19th century. Only four ice core records cover the full 1000 years, and they suggest a decrease in snow accumulation during this period. However, our study emphasizes the importance of low-elevation coastal zones, which have been under-represented in previous investigations of temporal snow accumulation.},
author = {Thomas, Elizabeth R. and {Melchior Van Wessem}, J. and Roberts, Jason and Isaksson, Elisabeth and Schlosser, Elisabeth and Fudge, Tyler J. J and Vallelonga, Paul and Medley, Brooke and Lenaerts, Jan and Bertler, Nancy and {Van Den Broeke}, Michiel R. R and Dixon, Daniel A. A and Frezzotti, Massimo and Stenni, Barbara and Curran, Mark and Ekaykin, Alexey A. A and van Wessem, J M and Roberts, Jason and Isaksson, Elisabeth and Schlosser, Elisabeth and Fudge, Tyler J. J and Vallelonga, Paul and Medley, Brooke and Lenaerts, Jan and Bertler, Nancy and {Van Den Broeke}, Michiel R. R and Dixon, Daniel A. A and Frezzotti, Massimo and Stenni, Barbara and Curran, Mark and Ekaykin, Alexey A. A},
doi = {10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017},
issn = {18149332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {11},
pages = {1491--1513},
title = {{Regional Antarctic snow accumulation over the past 1000 years}},
url = {https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/13/1491/2017/},
volume = {13},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Thompson2015,
abstract = {Internal variability in the climate system gives rise to large uncertainty in projections of future climate. The uncertainty in future climate due to internal climate variability can be estimated from large ensembles of climate change simulations in which the experiment setup is the same from one ensemble member to the next but for small perturbations in the initial atmospheric state. However, large ensembles are invariably computationally expensive and susceptible to model bias. Here the authors outline an alternative approach for assessing the role of internal variability in future climate based on a simple analytic model and the statistics of the unforced climate variability. The analytic model is derived from the standard error of the regression and assumes that the statistics of the internal variability are roughly Gaussian and stationary in time. When applied to the statistics of an unforced control simulation, the analytic model provides a remarkably robust estimate of the uncertainty in future climate indicated by a large ensemble of climate change simulations. To the extent that observations can be used to estimate the amplitude of internal climate variability, it is argued that the uncertainty in future climate trends due to internal variability can be robustly estimated from the statistics of the observed climate.},
author = {Thompson, David W. J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Deser, Clara and Foust, William E. and Phillips, Adam S.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00830.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6443--6456},
title = {{Quantifying the Role of Internal Climate Variability in Future Climate Trends}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00830.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Thomson2011,
abstract = {Historical records are valuable for assessing glacier change in the Canadian High Arctic. Ommanney's (1969) detailed inventory of Axel Heiberg Island glaciers, based on photography from 1958–59, has been revisited, converted into digital format and compared to glacier extents mapped from 1999–2000 satellite imagery. Our results show that the island-wide ice coverage decreased by 15.92 km2 in the 42 year period, a loss of {\textless}1{\%}. However, two trends are apparent: one of advance or minor retreat from basins hosting outlet glaciers from M{\"{u}}ller and Steacie Ice Caps, and one of significant retreat, on the order of 50–80{\%}, for independent ice masses, which include valley glaciers, mountain glaciers, glacierets, and ice caps smaller than 25 km2. If the contributions to ice advance of only three surging glaciers are removed, then the island-wide ice loss approaches 60 km2. Furthermore, it is notable that 90{\%} of ice masses smaller than 0.2 km2 disappeared entirely during the 42 year study period, an observation confirmed by field studies. Successful predictions from the original inventory are highlighted and the likely mechanisms driving the observed advances and retreats are discussed.},
author = {Thomson, Laura I and Osinski, Gordon R and Ommanney, C Simon L},
doi = {10.3189/002214311798843287},
edition = {2017/09/08},
issn = {0022-1430},
journal = {Journal of Glaciology},
number = {206},
pages = {1079--1086},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Glacier change on Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, Canada}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/glacier-change-on-axel-heiberg-island-nunavut-canada/179791948CA6A5BB702785C4BE2907F4},
volume = {57},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Thornton2017,
abstract = {Using twelve years of high resolution global lightning stroke data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), we show that lightning density is enhanced by up to a factor of two directly over shipping lanes in the northeastern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea as compared to adjacent areas with similar climatological characteristics. The lightning enhancement is most prominent during the convectively active season, November-April for the Indian Ocean and April-December in the South China Sea, and has been detectable from at least 2005 to the present. We hypothesize that emissions of aerosol particles and precursors by maritime vessel traffic lead to a microphysical enhancement of convection and storm electrification in the region of the shipping lanes. These persistent localized anthropogenic perturbations to otherwise clean regions are a unique opportunity to more thoroughly understand the sensitivity of maritime deep convection and lightning to aerosol particles.},
author = {Thornton, Joel A. and Virts, Katrina S. and Holzworth, Robert H. and Mitchell, Todd P.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074982},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {17},
pages = {9102--9111},
title = {{Lightning enhancement over major oceanic shipping lanes}},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Tian2016IJC,
abstract = {In this study, fast climate system responses to CO 2 , aerosols and sulfate aerosols are studied based on simulations of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) atmospheric models. We demonstrate that the fast climate adjustments caused by CO 2 forcing lead to decreases in global annual mean cloud fractions, evaporation and precipitation and to increases in the global annual mean net radiative forcing and atmospheric water vapour content. The inhibition of rainfall is primarily caused by the reduced oceanic precipitation. Regionally, Africa, South Asia, East Asia and Australia exhibit pronounced increases in rainfall, which are presumably attributed to the strengthened summer monsoon caused by the increased land–sea thermal contrast. Aerosols and sulfate aerosols exhibit only a slight effect on the global hydrological cycle before global surface temperature changes. However, by affecting the land–sea thermal contrast, they can have profound effects on regional-scale hydrological cycles, such as those over southern Africa, South Asia and East Asia in the boreal summer. Moreover, the cloud fast feedback under the aerosol forcing is highly associated with the way of dealing with aerosols in the atmospheric model.},
annote = {Added as part of merge of Chapter 7 refrerences relating to global precipitation constraints and regional responses},
author = {Tian, Di and Dong, Wenjie and Gong, Daoyi and Guo, Yan and Yang, Shili},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4763},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {CMIP5,CO2,aerosols,fast climate response,sulfate aerosol},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {1156--1166},
publisher = {Wiley},
title = {{Fast responses of climate system to carbon dioxide, aerosols and sulfate aerosols without the mediation of SST in the CMIP5}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2Fjoc.4763},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Tian2018a,
abstract = {Since the mid-1990s precipitation trends over eastern China display a dipole pattern, characterized by positive anomalies in the south and negative anomalies in the north, named as the Southern-Flood-Northern-Drought (SFND) pattern. This work investigates the drivers of decadal changes of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the dynamical mechanisms involved, by using a coupled climate model (specifically an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean mixed layer model) forced by changes in (1) anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), (2) anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and (3) the combined effects of both GHG and AA (All Forcing) between two periods across the mid-1990s. The model experiment forced by changes in All Forcing shows a dipole pattern of response in precipitation over China that is similar to the observed SFND pattern across the mid-1990s, which suggests that anthropogenic forcing changes played an important role in the observed decadal changes. Furthermore, the experiments with separate forcings indicate that GHG and AA forcing dominate different parts of the SFND pattern. In particular, changes in GHG increase precipitation over southern China, whilst changes in AA dominate in the drought conditions over northern China. Increases in GHG cause increased moisture transport convergence over eastern China, which leads to increased precipitation. The AA forcing changes weaken the EASM, which lead to divergent wind anomalies over northern China and reduced precipitation.},
author = {Tian, Fangxing and Dong, Buwen and Robson, Jon and Sutton, Rowan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4105-7},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {nov},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3699--3715},
title = {{Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the roles of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4105-7},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Tian2015GRL,
abstract = {Despite decades of climate research and model development, two outstanding problems still plague the latest global climate models (GCMs): the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias and the 2−5°C spread of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Here we show that the double-ITCZ bias and ECS in 44 GCMs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3/5 are negatively correlated. The models with weak (strong) double-ITCZ biases have high (low)-ECS values of {\~{}}4.1(2.2)°C. This indicates that the double-ITCZ bias is a new emergent constraint for ECS based on which ECS might be in the higher end of its range ({\~{}}4.0°C) and most models might have underestimated ECS. In addition, we argue that the double-ITCZ bias can physically affect both cloud and water vapor feedbacks (thus ECS) and is a more easily measured emergent constraint for ECS than previous ones. It can be used as a performance metric for evaluating and comparing different GCMs.},
author = {Tian, Baijun},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064119},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5),double- bias,emergent constraint,equilibrium climate  (ECS),global climate models (GCMs)},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {4133--4141},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Spread of model climate sensitivity linked to double-Intertropical Convergence Zone bias}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2015gl064119},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tian2019,
abstract = {ChangesintheEastAsiansummermonsoon(EASM)during the mid-21st century relative to present dayare simulated in two related models GOML1 and GOML2. Both models are the atmospheric componentsof two state-of-the-art climate models coupled to a multi-level mixed-layer ocean model, following theRCP 4.5 scenario. Both show that the EASM is enhanced due to the amplified land-sea thermal contrast.Summer precipitation over northern China is projected to increase by 5{\%}–10{\%} in both models mainlydriven by enhancement of the monsoon circulation.Over south-eastern China the two models projectdifferent signs of precipitation change: a decrease in GOML1 with the maximum of about−1.0 mm d−1and an increase in GOML2 with a maximum of around 1.0 mm d−1. Though the thermal effect of climatewarming leads to a projected increase in precipitation over south-eastern China in both models,circulation changes are opposite and dominate the precipitation response. This indicates that uncertaintyin changes in projected precipitation largely arises from uncertainly in projected circulation changes. Thedifferent circulation changes in the two models are likely related to differences in projected Sea SurfaceTemperature(SST)in the Western tropical PacificandNorthPacific. In GOML1, the SST warming in thetropical Pacific is associated with an anomalous local Hadley circulation, characterized by anomalousascent in the tropics and southern subtropics, and anomalous descent with less precipitation over south-eastern China. In GOML2, the large decrease in the meridional SST gradient between the South China Seaand Western North Pacific is associated with an anomalous local Hadley circulation with anomalousascent at 20°N–30°N and anomalous descent at 5°N–15°N, leading to an anti-cyclonic circulationanomaly over the South China Sea and increased precipitation over south-eastern China.},
author = {Tian, Fangxing and Dong, Buwen and Robson, Jon and Sutton, Rowan and Tett, Simon F B},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab28a6},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {084038},
title = {{Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28a6},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tian2020,
abstract = {The double-intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias is one of the most outstanding errors in all previous generations of climate models. Here, the annual double-ITCZ bias and the associated precipitation bias in the latest climate models for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 (CMIP6) are examined in comparison to their previous generations (CMIP Phase 3 [CMIP3] and CMIP Phase 5 [CMIP5]). All three generations of CMIP models share similar systematic annual multi-model ensemble mean precipitation errors in the tropics. The notorious double-ITCZ bias and its big inter-model spread persist in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. Based on several tropical precipitation bias indices, the double-ITCZ bias is slightly reduced from CMIP3 or CMIP5 to CMIP6. In addition, the annual equatorial Pacific cold tongue persists in all three generations of CMIP models, but its inter-model spread is reduced from CMIP3 to CMIP5 and from CMIP5 to CMIP6.},
author = {Tian, Baijun and Dong, Xinyu},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL087232},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP3,CMIP5,CMIP6,Climate Models,Double-ITCZ bias,Precipitation},
number = {8},
pages = {1--11},
title = {{The Double-ITCZ Bias in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Models Based on Annual Mean Precipitation}},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Tierney2013,
abstract = {The timing and abruptness of the initiation and termination of the Early Holocene African Humid Period are subjects of ongoing debate, with direct consequences for our understanding of abrupt climate change, paleoenvironments, and early human cultural development. Here, we provide proxy evidence from the Horn of Africa region that documents abrupt transitions into and out of the African Humid Period in northeast Africa. Similar and generally synchronous abrupt transitions at other East African sites suggest that rapid shifts in hydroclimate are a regionally coherent feature. Our analysis suggests that the termination of the African Humid Period in the Horn of Africa occurred within centuries, underscoring the nonlinearity of the region's hydroclimate.},
author = {Tierney, Jessica E. and DeMenocal, Peter B.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1240411},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {nov},
number = {6160},
pages = {843--846},
title = {{Abrupt Shifts in Horn of Africa Hydroclimate Since the Last Glacial Maximum}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1240411},
volume = {342},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Tierney2017,
abstract = {During the “Green Sahara” period (11,000 to 5000 years before the present), the Sahara desert received high amounts of rainfall, supporting diverse vegetation, permanent lakes, and human populations. Our knowledge of rainfall rates and the spatiotemporal extent of wet conditions has suffered from a lack of continuous sedimentary records. We present a quantitative reconstruction of western Saharan precipitation derived from leaf wax isotopes in marine sediments. Our data indicate that the Green Sahara extended to 31°N and likely ended abruptly. We find evidence for a prolonged “pause” in Green Sahara conditions 8000 years ago, coincident with a temporary abandonment of occupational sites by Neolithic humans. The rainfall rates inferred from our data are best explained by strong vegetation and dust feedbacks; without these mechanisms, climate models systematically fail to reproduce the Green Sahara. This study suggests that accurate simulations of future climate change in the Sahara and Sahel will require improvements in our ability to simulate vegetation and dust feedbacks.},
author = {Tierney, Jessica E. and Pausata, Francesco S. R. and DeMenocal, Peter B.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1601503},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {e1601503},
title = {{Rainfall regimes of the Green Sahara}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1601503},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Tierney2015SciAdv,
abstract = {The recent decline in Horn of Africa rainfall during the March–May “long rains” season has fomented drought and famine, threatening food security in an already vulnerable region. Some attribute this decline to anthropogenic forcing, whereas others maintain that it is a feature of internal climate variability. We show that the rate of drying in the Horn of Africa during the 20th century is unusual in the context of the last 2000 years, is synchronous with recent global and regional warming, and therefore may have an anthropogenic component. In contrast to 20th century drying, climate models predict that the Horn of Africa will become wetter as global temperatures rise. The projected increase in rainfall mainly occurs during the September–November “short rains” season, in response to large-scale weakening of the Walker circulation. Most of the models overestimate short rains precipitation while underestimating long rains precipitation, causing the Walker circulation response to unrealistically dominate the annual mean. Our results highlight the need for accurate simulation of the seasonal cycle and an improved understanding of the dynamics of the long rains season to predict future rainfall in the Horn of Africa.},
author = {Tierney, Jessica E. and Ummenhofer, Caroline C. and DeMenocal, Peter B.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1500682},
isbn = {2375-2548},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
keywords = {Horn of climate change,drought,leaf waxes,paleoclimate},
month = {oct},
number = {9},
pages = {e1500682},
pmid = {26601306},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science ({\{}AAAS{\}})},
title = {{Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1126{\%}2Fsciadv.1500682 https://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1500682},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tierney2019,
abstract = {Abstract With CO2 concentrations similar to today (410 ppm), the Pliocene Epoch offers insights into climate changes under a moderately warmer world. Previous work suggested a low zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the tropical Pacific during the Pliocene, the so-called ?permanent El Ni{\~{n}}o.? Here, we recalculate SSTs using the alkenone proxy and find moderate reductions in both the zonal and meridional SST gradients during the mid-Piacenzian warm period. These reductions are captured by coupled climate model simulations of the Pliocene, especially those that simulate weaker Walker circulation. We also produce a spatial reconstruction of mid-Piacenzian warm period Pacific SSTs that closely resembles both Pliocene and future, low-emissions simulations, a pattern that is, to a first order, diagnostic of weaker Walker circulation. Therefore, Pliocene warmth does not require drastic changes in the climate system?rather, it supports the expectation that the Walker circulation will weaken in the future under higher CO2.},
author = {Tierney, Jessica E. and Haywood, Alan M. and Feng, Ran and Bhattacharya, Tripti and Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.},
doi = {10.1029/2019gl083802},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {15},
pages = {9136--9144},
title = {{Pliocene warmth consistent with greenhouse gas forcing}},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tilinina2013,
abstract = {AbstractCharacteristics of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity were compared for five concurrent reanalyses: the NCEP–U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (herein NCEP–DOE), the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR), for the period 1979–2010 using a single cyclone tracking algorithm. The total number of cyclones, ranging from 1400 to more than 1800 yr−1, was found to depend strongly on the spatial resolution of the respective reanalysis. The largest cyclone population was identified using NASA-MERRA data, which also showed the highest occurrence of very deep cyclones. Of the reanalyses, two (NCEP–DOE and ERA-Interim) are associated with statistically significant positive trends in the total number of cyclones from 1{\%} to 2{\%} decade−1. These trends ...},
author = {Tilinina, Natalia and Gulev, Sergey K. and Rudeva, Irina and Koltermann, Peter},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00777.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {17},
pages = {6419--6438},
title = {{Comparing cyclone life cycle characteristics and their interannual variability in different reanalyses}},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Tillman2017,
abstract = {... First published: 8 July 2016 Full publication history; DOI: 10.1002 / 2016GL069714 View/save citation; Cited by: 0 articles Check for new citationsCiting literature; Funding Information. Abstract. ... Article Information. DOI. 10.1002 / 2016GL069714 : View/save citation. Format Available. ...},
author = {Tillman, Fred D. and Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu and Pruitt, Tom},
doi = {10.1111/gwat.12507},
issn = {0017467X},
journal = {Groundwater},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {506--518},
title = {{Changes in Projected Spatial and Seasonal Groundwater Recharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gwat.12507},
volume = {55},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Tilmes2013,
abstract = {The hydrological impact of enhancing Earth's albedo by solar radiation management is investigated using simulations from 12 Earth System models contributing to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). We contrast an idealized experiment, G1, where the global mean radiative forcing is kept at preindustrial conditions by reducing insolation while the CO2 concentration is quadrupled to a 4×CO2 experiment. The reduction of evapotranspiration over land with instantaneously increasing CO2 concentrations in both experiments largely contributes to an initial reduction in evaporation. A warming surface associated with the transient adjustment in 4×CO2 generates an increase of global precipitation by around 6.9{\%} with large zonal and regional changes in both directions, including a precipitation increase of 10{\%} over Asia and a reduction of 7{\%} for the North American summer monsoon. Reduced global evaporation persists in G1 with temperatures close to preindustrial conditions. Global precipitation is reduced by around 4.5{\%}, and significant reductions occur over monsoonal land regions: East Asia (6{\%}), South Africa (5{\%}), North America (7{\%}), and South America (6{\%}). The general precipitation performance in models is discussed in comparison to observations. In contrast to the 4×CO2 experiment, where the frequency of months with heavy precipitation intensity is increased by over 50{\%} in comparison to the control, a reduction of up to 20{\%} is simulated in G1. These changes in precipitation in both total amount and frequency of extremes point to a considerable weakening of the hydrological cycle in a geoengineered world.},
author = {Tilmes, Simone and Fasullo, John and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Marsh, Daniel R. and Mills, Michael and Alterskjaer, Kari and Muri, Helene and Kristj{\'{a}}nsson, J{\'{o}}n E. and Boucher, Olivier and Schulz, Michael and Cole, Jason N. S. and Curry, Charles L. and Jones, Andy and Haywood, Jim and Irvine, Peter J. and Ji, Duoying and Moore, John C. and Karam, Diana B. and Kravitz, Ben and Rasch, Philip J. and Singh, Balwinder and Yoon, Jin-Ho and Niemeier, Ulrike and Schmidt, Hauke and Robock, Alan and Yang, Shuting and Watanabe, Shingo},
doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50868},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {GeoMIP,climate change,geoengineering,hydrological cycle,monsoon,solar radiation management},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {11036--11058},
title = {{The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jgrd.50868},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/joc.3492,
abstract = {Abstract During the 20th century and early 21st century, the subtropical ridge (STR) in the vicinity of eastern Australia has intensified significantly. While the position of the STR has often been the focus of past studies, its influence on rainfall across southern Australia is less pronounced than the influence of the intensity of the ridge. Most of the Australian continent has experienced above average rainfall from 1997 to 2009, but areas of below average rainfall, including southeastern Australia (SEA), exist and tend to match the pattern of the influence of the STR on Australian rainfall. The spatial extent makes the 1997–2009 rainfall deficit in SEA different from previous dry decades such as 1935–1945. It is also noted that the annual cycle of the rainfall deficiency centred on a continuum from March to October overlaps well with the time of the year when the STR intensity has a strong influence on rainfall. Using simple linear statistics, a rainfall decline for the period 1997–2009 equivalent to nearly two thirds of that observed can be inferred from the intensification of the ridge. The apparent southward shift of the ridge in certain seasons does not appear to have had an additional effect on SEA rainfall. During the 1935–1945 drought, almost a third of the rainfall decline can be attributed to the strengthening of the ridge. Finally, it was observed that the intensification of the STR was not monotonic during the 20th century but happened mostly during two extended periods: from 1900 to the 1940s, culminating at the time of the 1935–1945 dry decade, and from 1970 to 2010 culminating with the 1997–2009 rainfall deficit in SEA. That multidecadal behaviour is reminiscent of the global warming of the planet. Copyright {\textcopyright} 2012 Royal Meteorological Society},
author = {Timbal, B and Drosdowsky, W},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3492},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {South East Australia,rainfall,subtropical ridge},
number = {4},
pages = {1021--1034},
title = {{The relationship between the decline of Southeastern Australian rainfall and the strengthening of the subtropical ridge}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.3492},
volume = {33},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Toda2018,
abstract = {An effective mechanism for determining tropical rainfall patterns in response to sea surface temperature (SST) increases with varying magnitude and horizontal distribution has not been developed thus far in climate change studies. In order to examine changes in precipitation pattern with increasing SST, we conducted a series of atmospheric general circulation model experiments using a 30 year record of observed SST for which either globally uniform SST increases of 1 K, 2 K, and 4 K or El Ni{\~{n}}o/La Ni{\~{n}}a-like patterned SST anomaly has been imposed. Although the global-mean precipitation linearly increases with the SST increase irrespective of its spatial distribution, regional precipitation changes were found to occur nonlinearly depending on the magnitude of the uniform SST increase. Owing to nonlinearity in the atmospheric circulation response, the regional hydrological sensitivity was larger with a smaller increase in SST. The precipitation response to the SST pattern was, however, quasi-linear to the magnitude of the SST change and can be separated from the response to the uniform SST increase. This study thus emphasizes the importance of relative amplitudes of uniform and structured SST increases for future rainfall projection.},
author = {Toda, Masaki and Watanabe, Masahiro},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076745},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {GCM,global warming,hydrological cycle,sea surface temperature},
number = {3},
pages = {1551--1558},
title = {{Linear and Nonlinear Hydrological Cycle Responses to Increasing Sea Surface Temperature}},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{txdko12,
author = {Tokinaga, H and Xie, S P and Deser, C and Kosaka, Y and Okumura, Y M},
doi = {10.1038/nature11576},
journal = {Nature},
pages = {439--443},
title = {{Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming}},
volume = {491},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Toll2017,
author = {Toll, Velle and Christensen, Matthew and Gass{\'{o}}, Santiago and Bellouin, Nicolas},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075280},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {12,492--12,500},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Volcano and Ship Tracks Indicate Excessive Aerosol-Induced Cloud Water Increases in a Climate Model}},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Torres2014,
abstract = {This study identifies possible hotspots of climate change in South America through an examination of the spatial pattern of the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) over the region by the end of the twenty-first century. The RCCI is a qualitative index that can synthesize a large number of climate model projections, and it is suitable for identifying those regions where climate change could be more pronounced in a warmer climate. The reliability and uncertainties of the results are evaluated by using numerous state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) and forcing scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5. The results show that southern Amazonia and the central-western region and western portion of Minas Gerais state in Brazil are persistent climate change hotspots through different forcing scenarios and GCM datasets. In general, as the scenarios vary from low- to high-level forcing, the area of high values of RCCI increase and the magnitude intensify from central-western and southeast Brazil to northwest South America. In general, the climatic hotspots identified in this study are characterized by an increase of mean surface air temperature, mainly in the austral winter; by an increase of interannual temperature variability, predominantly in the austral summer; and by a change in the mean and interannual variability of precipitation during the austral winter. {\textcopyright} 2013 Springer-Verlag Wien.},
author = {Torres, Roger Rodrigues and Marengo, Jose Antonio},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-013-1030-x},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {579--587},
title = {{Climate change hotspots over South America: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 multi-model datasets}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-013-1030-x},
volume = {117},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Torres-Alavez2014,
abstract = {The hypothesis that global warming during the twenty-first century will increase the land-sea thermal contrast (LSTC) and therefore the intensity of early season precipitation of the North American monsoon (NAM) is examined. To test this hypothesis, future changes (2075-99 minus 1979-2004 means) in LSTC, moisture flux convergence (MFC), vertical velocity, and precipitation in the region are analyzed using six global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. A surface LSTC index shows that the continent becomes warmer than the ocean in May in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and in June in the mean ensemble of the GCMs (ens{\_}GCMs), and the magnitude of the positive LSTC is greater in the reanalyses than in the ens{\_}GCMs during the historic period. However, the reanalyses underestimate July-August precipitation in the NAM region, while the ens{\_}GCMs reproduces the peak season surprisingly well but overestimates it the rest of the year. The future ens{\_}GCMs projects a doubling of the magnitude of the positive surface LSTC and an earlier start of the continental summer warming in mid-May. Contrary to the stated hypothesis, however, the mean projection suggests a slight decrease of monsoon coastal precipitation during June-August (JJA), which is attributed to increased midtropospheric subsidence, a reduced midtropospheric LSTC, and reduced MFC in the NAM coastal region. In contrast, the future ens{\_}GCMs produces increased MFC and precipitation over the adjacent mountains during JJA and significantly more rainfall over the entire NAM region during September-October, weakening the monsoon retreat. {\textcopyright} 2014 American Meteorological Society.},
author = {Torres-Alavez, Abraham and Cavazos, Tereza and Turrent, Cuauhtemoc},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00557.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Atmospheric circulat},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4566--4580},
title = {{Land–Sea Thermal Contrast and Intensity of the North American Monsoon under Climate Change Conditions}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00557.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Torres-Batllo2020,
abstract = {Lake Poop{\'{o}} is located in the Andean Mountain Range Plateau or Altiplano. A general decline in the lake water level has been observed in the last two decades, coinciding roughly with an intensification of agriculture exploitation, such as quinoa crops. Several factors have been linked with the shrinkage of the lake, including climate change, increased irrigation, mining extraction and population growth. Being an endorheic catchment, evapotranspiration (ET) losses are expected to be the main water output mechanism and previous studies demonstrated ET increases using Earth observation (EO) data. In this study, we seek to build upon these earlier findings by analyzing an ET time series dataset of higher spatial and temporal resolution, in conjunction with land cover and precipitation data. More specifically, we performed a spatio-temporal analysis, focusing on wet and dry periods, that showed that ET changes occur primarily in the wet period, while the dry period is approximately stationary. An analysis of vegetation trends performed using 500 MODIS vegetation index products (NDVI) also showed an overall increasing trend during the wet period. Analysis of NDVI and ET across land cover types showed that only croplands had experienced an increase in NDVI and ET losses, while natural covers showed either constant or decreasing NDVI trends together with increases in ET. The larger increase in vegetation and ET losses over agricultural regions, strongly suggests that cropping practices exacerbated water losses in these areas. This quantification provides essential information for the sustainable planning of water resources and land uses in the catchment. Finally, we examined the spatio-temporal trends of the precipitation using the newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS-v2) product, which we validated with onsite rainfall measurements. When integrated over the entire catchment, precipitation and ET showed an average increasing trend of 5.2 mm yr−1 and 4.3 mm yr−1, respectively. This result suggests that, despite the increased ET losses, the catchment-wide water storage should have been offset by the higher precipitation. However, this result is only applicable to the catchment-wide water balance, and the location of water may have been altered (e.g., by river abstractions or by the creation of impoundments) to the detriment of the Lake Poop{\'{o}} downstream.},
author = {Torres-Batll{\'{o}}, Juan and Mart{\'{i}}-Cardona, Bel{\'{e}}n and Pillco-Zol{\'{a}}, Ramiro},
doi = {10.3390/rs12010073},
issn = {2072-4292},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
keywords = {CHIRPS,Catchment,Climate change,Evapotranspiration ET,Lake Poop{\'{o}},MODIS,NDVI,Precipitation,Water resources},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {73},
title = {{Mapping Evapotranspiration, Vegetation and Precipitation Trends in the Catchment of the Shrinking Lake Poop{\'{o}}}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/1/73},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Trenberth2011,
abstract = {An assessment is made of the global energy and hydrological cycles from eight current atmospheric reanalyses and their depiction of changes over time. A brief evaluation of the water and energy cycles in the latest version of the NCAR climate model referred to as CCSM4 is also given. The focus is on the mean ocean, land, and global precipitation P; the corresponding evaporation E; their difference corresponding to the surface freshwater flux E–P; and the vertically integrated atmospheric moisture transports. Using the model-based P and E, the time- and area-average E–P for the oceans, P–E for land, and the moisture transport from ocean to land should all be identical but are not close in most reanalyses, and often differ significantly from observational estimates of the surface return flow based on net river discharge into the oceans. Their differences reveal outstanding issues with atmospheric models and their biases, which are manifested as analysis increments in the reanalyses. The NCAR CCSM4, along with most reanalysis models, the exception being MERRA, has too-intense water cycling (P and E) over the ocean although ocean-to-land transports are very close to observed. Precipitation from reanalyses that assimilate moisture from satellite observations exhibits large changes identified with the changes in the observing system, as new and improved temperature and water vapor channels are assimilated and, while P improves after about 2002, E–P does not. Discrepancies among hydrological cycle components arise from analysis increments that can add or subtract moisture. The large-scale moisture budget divergences are more stable in time and similar across reanalyses than model-based estimates of E–P. Results are consistent with the view that recycling of moisture is too large in most models and the lifetime of moisture is too short. For the energy cycle, most reanalyses have spurious imbalances of {\~{}}10 W m−2 within the atmosphere, and {\~{}}5–10 W m−2 in net fluxes into the surface and to space. Major improvements are needed in model treatment and assimilation of moisture, and surface fluxes from reanalyses should only be used with great caution.},
annote = {info for Figure 1 schematic - R Allan -},
author = {Trenberth, Kevin E. and Fasullo, John T. and Mackaro, Jessica},
doi = {10.1175/2011JCLI4171.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Evaporation,Hydrologic cycle,Model evaluation/performance,Moisture,Precipitation,Transport},
number = {18},
pages = {4907--4924},
pmid = {7754995},
title = {{Atmospheric moisture transports from ocean to land and global energy flows in reanalyses}},
volume = {24},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Trenberth2011a,
abstract = {There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7{\%} per 1C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones, supplied with increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring, even where total precipitation is decreasing: it never rains but it pours! This increases the risk of flooding. The atmospheric and surface energy budget plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle, and also in the slower rate of change that occurs in total precipitation than total column water vapor. With modest changes in winds, patterns of precipitation do not change much, but result in dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in the mid- to high latitudes: the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. This pattern is simulated by climate models and is projected to continue into the future. Because, with warming, more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow and snow melts earlier, there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring, but increased risk of drought in summer, especially over continental areas. However, with more precipitation per unit of upward motion in the atmosphere, i.e. more bang for the buck, atmospheric circulation weakens, causing monsoons to falter. In the tropics and subtropics, precipitation patterns are dominated by shifts as sea surface temperatures change, with El Ni o a good example. The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to an unprecedented drop in land precipitation and runoff, and to widespread drought, as precipitation shifted from land to oceans and evaporation faltered, providing lessons for possible geoengineering. Most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity, resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short, which affects runoff and soil moisture.},
author = {Trenberth, Kevin E.},
doi = {10.3354/cr00953},
isbn = {0936-577X},
issn = {0936577X},
journal = {Climate Research},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate models,Drought,Extremes,Floods,Geoengineering,Precipitation,Storms},
number = {1-2},
pages = {123--138},
title = {{Changes in precipitation with climate change}},
volume = {47},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Trenberth2017,
abstract = {AbstractIntermittency is a core characteristic of precipitation, not well described by data and very poorly modeled. Detailed analyses are made of near-global gridded (about 1°) hourly or 3-hourly precipitation rates from two updated observational datasets [3-hourly TRMM 3B42, version 7, and hourly CMORPH, version 1.0, bias corrected (CRT)] and from special runs of CESM from January 1998 to December 2013 to obtain hourly values. The analyses explore the intermittency of precipitation: the frequency, intensity, duration, and amounts. A comparison is made for all products using several metrics with a focus on the duration of events, and a new metric is proposed based on the ratio of the frequency of precipitation at certain rates (0.2–2 mm h−1) for hourly versus 3-hourly versus daily data. For all seasons and rain rates, TRMM values are similar in pattern to CMORPH, but durations are about 80{\%}–85{\%}. It is mainly over land in the monsoons that CMORPH exceeds TRMM rain durations. Observed duration of precipita...},
author = {Trenberth, Kevin E. and Zhang, Yongxin and Gehne, Maria},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-16-0263.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
number = {5},
pages = {1393--1412},
title = {{Intermittency in Precipitation: Duration, Frequency, Intensity, and Amounts Using Hourly Data}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0263.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Trenberth2015b,
abstract = {There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.},
author = {Trenberth, Kevin E. and Fasullo, John T. and Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2657},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {725--730},
title = {{Attribution of climate extreme events}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2657},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{tcjzf18,
author = {Trenberth, Kevin E and Cheng, Lijing and Jacobs, Peter and Zhang, Yongxin and Fasullo, John},
doi = {10.1029/2018EF000825},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {730--744},
title = {{Hurricane Harvey Links to Ocean Heat Content and Climate Change Adaptation}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018EF000825},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Trigo2004,
abstract = {A comprehensive multivariable characterisation of the climatic impacts of winter blocking and strong zonal-flow (non-blocking) episodes over the Euro-Atlantic sector is presented here, using a 40-year (1958-97) consistent dataset from NCEP/NCAR. Anomaly fields of surface or low troposphere climate variables are then interpreted based on large-scale physical mechanisms, namely, the anomalous mean flow (characterised by the 500 hPa geopotential height and the surface wind) and the anomalous eddy activity (characterised by the surface vorticity and cyclonic activity). It is shown that the lower troposphere (850 hPa) temperature patterns are mainly controlled by the advection of heat by the anomalous mean flow. However, at the surface level, the anomaly patterns obtained for maximum and minimum temperatures present important asymmetries, associated with a different control mechanism, namely the modulation of shortwave and longwave radiation by cloud cover variations. It is shown that blocking and non-blocking episodes are typically associated with important meridional shifts in the location of maximum activity of transient eddies. The influence of persistent anomaly events in precipitable water is strongly related to the corresponding anomaly fields of lower troposphere temperature. The precipitation rate, however, appears to be essentially controlled by the surface vorticity field and preferred locations of associated cyclones. {\textcopyright} Springer-Verlag 2004.},
author = {Trigo, R. M. and Trigo, I. F. and DaCamara, C. C. and Osborn, T. J.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-004-0410-4},
issn = {09307575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climatology,Geophysics/Geodesy,Oceanography},
month = {aug},
number = {1},
pages = {17--28},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Climate impact of the European winter blocking episodes from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-004-0410-4},
volume = {23},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Tsanis2019,
abstract = {The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December–January–February–March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951–2000) and two future periods (2001–2050 and 2051–2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO.},
author = {Tsanis, I. and Tapoglou, E.},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2379-7},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {323--330},
publisher = {Springer Vienna},
title = {{Winter North Atlantic Oscillation impact on European precipitation and drought under climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-018-2379-7},
volume = {135},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tseng2019,
abstract = {The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) excites strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction. A previous study showed that particular MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential heights in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events, and demonstrated that this consistency is beneficial for extended numerical weather forecasts (i.e., lead times of two weeks to one month). In this study, we examine the physical mechanisms that lead some MJO phases to have more consistent teleconnections than others using a linear baroclinic model. The results show that MJO phases 2, 3, 6, and 7 consistently generate Pacific–North American (PNA)-like patterns on S2S time scales while other phases do not. A Rossby wave source analysis is applied and shows that a dipole-like pattern of Rossby wave source on each side of the subtropical jet can increase the pattern consistency of teleconnections due to the constructive interference of similar teleconnection signals. On the other hand, symmetric patterns of Rossby wave source can dramatically reduce the pattern consistency due to destructive interference. A dipole-like Rossby wave source pattern is present most frequently when tropical heating is found in the Indian Ocean or the Pacific warm pool, and a symmetric Rossby wave source is present most frequently when tropical heating is located over the Maritime Continent. Thus, the MJO phase-dependent pattern consistency of teleconnections is a special case of this mechanism.},
author = {Tseng, Kai-Chih and Maloney, Eric and Barnes, Elizabeth},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0211.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {531--548},
title = {{The Consistency of MJO Teleconnection Patterns: An Explanation Using Linear Rossby Wave Theory}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/32/2/531/89247/The-Consistency-of-MJO-Teleconnection-Patterns-An},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Turner2019GRL,
abstract = {Abstract Antarctic snowfall consists of frequent clear‐sky precipitation and heavier falls from intrusions of maritime airmasses associated with amplified planetary waves. We investigate the importance of different precipitation events using the output of the RACMO2 model. Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) consisting of the largest 10{\%} of daily totals are shown to contribute more than 40{\%} of the total annual precipitation across much of the continent, with some areas receiving in excess of 60{\%} of the total from these events. The greatest contribution of EPEs to the annual total is in the coastal areas and especially on the ice shelves, with the Amery Ice Shelf receiving 50{\%} of its annual precipitation in less than the 10 days of heaviest precipitation. For the continent as a whole, 70{\%} of the variance of the annual precipitation is explained by variability in precipitation from EPEs, with this figure rising to over 90{\%} in some areas. Plain Language Summary The Antarctic ice sheet is extremely important because of its possible contribution to sea level rise and through the climate records than can be reconstructed using chemical signals locked in the ice. The mass of the ice sheet is constantly changing because of the ice gained by snowfall and the loss of ice at the margins via iceberg calving and melt through contact with relatively warm water masses. The amount of snow falling on the Antarctic is highly variable and dependent on the meteorological conditions over the Southern Ocean and the penetration of marine air into the interior. We show that extreme snowfall events, defined at the heaviest 10{\%} of daily precipitation amounts, contribute a high percentage of the annual snowfall and are the main factor controlling the year‐to‐year variability of snowfall across the continent. This has implications for the reconstruction of past climate records using data from ice cores and the selection of future ice core drilling sites.},
annote = {Extreme precipitation events explain 70{\%} of the inter‐annual variance of Antarctic snowfall.},
author = {Turner, John and Phillips, Tony and Thamban, Meloth and Rahaman, Waliur and Marshall, Gareth J. and Wille, Jonathan D. and Favier, Vincent and Winton, V. Holly L. and Thomas, Elizabeth and Wang, Zaomin and Broeke, Michiel and Hosking, J. Scott and Lachlan‐Cope, Tom},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081517},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Precipitations,variability},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {3502--3511},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The Dominant Role of Extreme Precipitation Events in Antarctic Snowfall Variability}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL081517 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081517},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{TurnerandAnnamalai2012,
abstract = {The vagaries of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall on short and long timescales impact the lives of more than one billion people. Understanding how the monsoon will change in the face of global warming is a challenge for climate science, not least because our state-of-the-art general circulation models still have di!culty simulating the regional distribution of monsoon rainfall. However, we are beginning to understand more about processes driving the monsoon, its seasonal cycle and modes of variability. This gives us the hope that we can build better models and ultimately reduce the uncertainty in our projections of future monsoon rainfall.},
author = {Turner, Andrew G. and Annamalai, H.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1495},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {587--595},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1495},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Turner2017,
abstract = {We investigate variability and trends of the Southern Hemisphere quasi-stationary planetary waves over 1979–2013 using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalyses. The effects of tropical and extra-tropical forcing factors on the phase and amplitude of the planetary waves are identified. The amplitudes of wave numbers 1–3 exhibit an annual cycle with a minimum in summer and maximum over the extended austral winter period. The phase of wave number 1 has a semi-annual cycle, moving east in austral spring/autumn and west in summer/winter as a result of differences in the phase of the semi-annual oscillation across the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. The phase of wave number 3 has an annual cycle, being more eastward (westward) in summer (winter). Year-to-year variability of the amplitude of wave number 1 is found to be strongly associated with the Amundsen Sea Low, which in turn is known to be strongly influenced by the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation, with the consequence that the amplitude of wave number 1 is larger during the El Ni{\~{n}}o phase of the cycle. Regarding trends for the year as a whole, the amplitude of wave number 1 has decreased since 1979 (p {\textless} 0.1), while the amplitudes of wave numbers 2 and 3 have increased. These changes are consistent with the warming trends in sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical oceans. However, the factors associated with longer-term trends are less clear than for year-to-year variability.},
author = {Turner, John and Hosking, J. Scott and Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Phillips, Tony and Marshall, Gareth J.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4848},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Antarctica,Southern Ocean,atmospheric circulation,teleconnections},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {2325--2336},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Ltd},
title = {{Variability and trends in the Southern Hemisphere high latitude, quasi-stationary planetary waves}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4848},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Udall2017a,
abstract = {Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19{\%} below the 1906-1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906-99 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend towards greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20{\%} by mid-century and -35{\%} by end–century, with support for losses exceeding -30{\%} at mid-century and -55{\%} at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
author = {Udall, Bradley and Overpeck, Jonathan},
doi = {10.1002/2016WR019638},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {Colorado River Basin,Colorado River Compact,climate change,megadrought},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {2404--2418},
title = {{The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016WR019638},
volume = {53},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ukkola2016,
abstract = {Surface fluxes from land surface models (LSM) have traditionally been evaluated against monthly, seasonal or annual mean states. The limited ability of LSMs to reproduce observed evaporative fluxes under water-stressed conditions has been previously noted, but very few studies have systematically evaluated these models during rainfall deficits. We evaluated latent heat flux simulated by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) LSM across 20 flux tower sites at sub-annual to inter-annual time scales, in particular focusing on model performance during seasonal-scale rainfall deficits. The importance of key model processes in capturing the latent heat flux are explored by employing alternative representations of hydrology, leaf area index, soil properties and stomatal conductance. We found that the representation of hydrological processes was critical for capturing observed declines in latent heat during rainfall deficits. By contrast, the effects of soil properties, LAI and stomatal conductance are shown to be highly site-specific. Whilst the standard model performs reasonably well at annual scales as measured by common metrics, it grossly underestimates latent heat during rainfall deficits. A new version of CABLE, with a more physically consistent representation of hydrology, captures the variation in the latent heat flux during seasonal-scale rainfall deficits better than earlier versions but remaining biases point to future research needs. Our results highlight the importance of evaluating LSMs under water-stressed conditions and across multiple plant functional types and climate regimes.},
author = {Ukkola, Anna M. and Pitman, Andy J. and Decker, Mark and {De Kauwe}, Martin G. and Abramowitz, Gab and Kala, Jatin and Wang, Ying Ping},
doi = {10.5194/hess-20-2403-2016},
issn = {16077938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {6},
pages = {2403--2419},
title = {{Modelling evapotranspiration during precipitation deficits: Identifying critical processes in a land surface model}},
volume = {20},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ukkola2016a,
author = {Ukkola, Anna M. and Prentice, I. Colin and Keenan, Trevor F. and van Dijk, Albert I. J. M. and Viney, Neil R. and Myneni, Ranga B. and Bi, Jian},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2831},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {75--78},
title = {{Reduced streamflow in water-stressed climates consistent with CO2 effects on vegetation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2831},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ukkola2020,
abstract = {Quantifying how climate change drives drought is a priority to inform policy and adaptation planning. We show that the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations project coherent regional patterns in meteorological drought for two emissions scenarios to 2100. We find robust projected changes in seasonal drought duration and frequency (robust over {\textgreater}45{\%} of the global land area), despite a lack of agreement across models in projected changes in mean precipitation (24{\%} of the land area). Future drought changes are larger and more consistent in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. We find regionalized increases and decreases in drought duration and frequency that are driven by changes in both precipitation mean and variability. Conversely, drought intensity increases over most regions but is not simulated well historically by the climate models. The more robust projections of meteorological drought compared to mean precipitation in CMIP6 provides significant new opportunities for water resource planning.},
author = {Ukkola, Anna M. and {De Kauwe}, Martin G. and Roderick, Michael L. and Abramowitz, Gab and Pitman, Andrew J.},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL087820},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP6,climate change,drought,precipitation},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {e2020GL087820},
title = {{Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL087820},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hasson2016,
abstract = {We review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961-2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061-2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope - a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) - a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy - RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal hydroclimatology poses some caveats on their ability to represent correctly the climate change signal. Nevertheless, considering the majority-model agreement as a measure of robustness for the qualitative scale projected future changes, we find a slightly delayed onset, and a general increase in the RFA slope and in the extent of precipitation concentration (RE) for MPR. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement suggests an increase in the seasonality of MPR and a less intermittent WPR for all basins and for most of the study domain. The SI-based indicator of change in the monsoonal domain suggests its extension westward over northwest India and Pakistan and northward over China. These findings have serious implications for the food and water security of the region in the future.},
author = {ul Hasson, Shabeh and Pascale, Salvatore and Lucarini, Valerio and B{\"{o}}hner, J{\"{u}}rgen and Hasson-etal and ul Hasson, Shabeh and Pascale, Salvatore and Lucarini, Valerio and B{\"{o}}hner, J{\"{u}}rgen and Hasson-etal and ul Hasson, Shabeh and Pascale, Salvatore and Lucarini, Valerio and B{\"{o}}hner, J{\"{u}}rgen and Hasson-etal and ul Hasson, Shabeh and Pascale, Salvatore and Lucarini, Valerio and B{\"{o}}hner, J{\"{u}}rgen and Hasson-etal and ul Hasson, Shabeh and Pascale, Salvatore and Lucarini, Valerio and B{\"{o}}hner, J{\"{u}}rgen and Hasson and ul Hasson, Shabeh and Pascale, Salvatore and Lucarini, Valerio and B{\"{o}}hner, J{\"{u}}rgen},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.05.008},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {CMIP5 models,Relative entropy,Seasonal cycle of precipitation,South Asian monsoon,Westerly precipitation regime},
number = {November},
pages = {42--63},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Seasonal cycle of Precipitation over Major River Basins in South and Southeast Asia: A Review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.05.008},
volume = {180},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ummenhofer_2017,
abstract = {Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.},
author = {Ummenhofer, Caroline C. and Seo, Hyodae and Kwon, Young Oh and Parfitt, Rhys and Brands, Swen and Joyce, Terrence M.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL074188},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {British Islesan climate variability and change},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {8557--8566},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017gl074188},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ummenhofer2009,
author = {Ummenhofer, Caroline C. and {Sen Gupta}, Alexander and England, Matthew H. and Reason, Chris J. C.},
doi = {10.1175/2008JCLI2493.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {993--1013},
title = {{Contributions of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures to Enhanced East African Rainfall}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2493.1},
volume = {22},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Undorf2018,
abstract = {Anthropogenic aerosols are a key driver of changes in summer monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century. Here we apply detection and attribution methods to investigate causes of change in the West African and South Asian monsoons separately and identify the aerosol source regions that are most important for explaining the observed changes during 1920–2005. Historical simulations with the GFDL-CM3 model are used to derive fingerprints of aerosol forcing from different regions. For West Africa, remote aerosol emissions from North America and Europe (NAEU) are essential in order to detect the anthropogenic signal in observed monsoon precipitation changes. The changes are significantly underestimated in the model, however. While natural (volcanic) forcing seems to also play a role, the dominant contribution is found to come from aerosol-induced changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient and associated meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. For South Asia, in contrast, changes in observed monsoon precipitation cannot be explained without local emissions. Here the findings show a weakening of the monsoon circulation, driven by the increase of remote NAEU aerosol emissions until 1975, and since then by the increase in local emissions offsetting the decrease of NAEU emissions. The results show that the aerosol forcing from individual emission regions is strong enough to be detected over internal variability. They also underscore the importance of the spatial pattern of global-aerosol emissions, which is likely to continue to change throughout the expected near-future decline in global emissions.},
author = {Undorf, S. and Polson, D. and Bollasina, M. A. and Ming, Y. and Schurer, A. and Hegerl, G. C.},
doi = {10.1029/2017JD027711},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {20th century climate,Detection {\&} attribution,South Asian monsoon,West African monsoon,anthropogenic aerosols,precipitation changes},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {4871--4889},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Detectable Impact of Local and Remote Anthropogenic Aerosols on the 20th Century Changes of West African and South Asian Monsoon Precipitation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2017JD027711},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{undorf2018impacts,
abstract = {The impact of North American and European (NAEU) anthropogenic aerosol emissions on Eurasian summer climate during the twentieth century is studied using historical single- and all-forcing (including anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, and natural forcings) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Intermodel agreement on significant linear trends during a period of increasing NAEU sulfate emissions (1900–74) reveals robust features of NAEU aerosol impact, supported by opposite changes during the subsequent period of decreasing emissions. Regionally, these include a large-scale cooling and associated anticyclonic circulation, as well as a narrowing of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Eurasian midlatitudes. Remotely, NAEU aerosols induce a drying over the western African and northern Indian monsoon regions and a strengthening and southward shift of the subtropical jet consistent with the pattern of temperature change. Over Europe, the temporal variations of observed temperature, pressure, and DTR tend to agree better with simulations that include aerosols. Throughout the twentieth century, aerosols are estimated to explain more than a third of the simulated interdecadal forced variability of European near-surface temperature and more than half between 1940 and 1970. These results highlight the substantial aerosol impact on Eurasian climate, already identifiable in the first half of the twentieth century. This may be relevant for understanding future patterns of change related to further emission reductions.},
author = {Undorf, S and Bollasina, M A and Hegerl, G C},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0850.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {8381--8399},
title = {{Impacts of the 1900–74 Increase in Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions from North America and Europe on Eurasian Summer Climate}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0850.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vallis2015,
abstract = {This paper discusses the possible response of the large-scale atmospheric structure to a warmer climate. Using integrations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in conjunction with physical arguments, we try to identify what changes are likely to be robust and what the underlying mechanisms might be. We focus on the large-scale zonally-averaged circulation, in particular on height of the tropopause, the strength and position of the surface westerlies and the strength and extent of the Hadley Cell. We present analytic arguments and numerical calculations that suggest that under global warming the height of the tropopause will increase in both the transient response and final equilibrium state, and an increase is clearly found in all the comprehensive models in CMIP5. Upper stratospheric cooling is also found in the comprehensive models, and this too can be explained by a radiative argument. Regarding the circulation, most models show a slight expansion and weakening of the Hadley Cell, depending on season and hemisphere. The expansion is small and largely confined to winter but with some expansion in Southern Hemisphere summer. The weakening occurs principally in Northern Hemisphere but the intermodel scatter is large. There is also a general polewards shift in surface westerlies, but the changes are small and again are little larger than the inter-model variability in the change. This shift is positively correlated with the Hadley Cell expansion to a degree that depends somewhat on the metric chosen for the latter. There is a robust strengthening in the Southern Hemisphere surface winds across seasons. In the Northern Hemisphere there is a slight strengthening in the westerlies in most models in winter but a consistent weakening of the westerlies in summer. We present various physical arguments concerning these circulation changes but none that are both demonstrably correct and that account for the model results. We conclude that the above-mentioned large-scale thermodynamic/radiative changes in the large-scale atmospheric structure are generally robust, in the sense of being both well understood and consistently reproduced by comprehensive models. In that sense the dynamical changes are less robust given the current state of knowledge and simulation, although one cannot conclude that they are, in principle, unknowable or less predictable.},
author = {Vallis, Geoffrey K. and Zurita-Gotor, Pablo and Cairns, Cameron and Kidston, Joseph},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2456},
isbn = {1477-870X},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {Climate change,General circulation,Global warming,Westerlies},
month = {jul},
number = {690},
pages = {1479--1501},
pmid = {26750491},
title = {{Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2456},
volume = {141},
year = {2015}
}
@article{VanderEnt2013,
abstract = {Identifying the sources of continental precipitation has received increasing attention in recent years. With the use of various numerical methods, sources of precipitation have been identified from local to global scales. In this paper we identify the oceanic sources based on an atmospheric backtracking analysis of continental precipitation. We find that the strongest source areas are located close to the continents. In general, we define an oceanic area as a significant source when on average more than 20{\%} of the total evaporation, and at least 250 mm/yr of evaporation ends up as continental precipitation. We grouped these identified source areas into 15 regions and performed a forward tracking analysis of oceanic evaporation. We identified the areas on the adjacent continents that receive this oceanic moisture and whether this is nearby or remote. Moreover, we showed how the oceanic sources vary over the year in time and space. Furthermore, we correlated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the 15 source regions and the Ni{\~{n}}o 3.4 region with precipitation on all continents. For South America, we found that the El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (altering wind patterns) has a larger effect on precipitation than local SSTs. For West Africa, however, we show that SST in the source regions is strongly correlated with precipitation in the rainy season. In Australia, both local SST and the Ni{\~{n}}o 3.4 region appear to have a big influence on precipitation. As such this research provides new insight in the ocean-atmosphere-land coupling, which can be useful for studying seasonal weather predictions as well as climate change impact.},
author = {van der Ent, Rudi J and Savenije, Hubert H G},
doi = {10.1002/wrcr.20296},
issn = {0043-1397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {3993--4004},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Oceanic sources of continental precipitation and the correlation with sea surface temperature}},
volume = {49},
year = {2013}
}
@article{VanDerEnt2014,
abstract = {The contribution of land evaporation to local and remote precipitation (i.e. moisture recycling) is of significant importance to sustain water resources and ecosystems. But how important are different evaporation components in sustaining precipitation? This is the first paper to present moisture recycling metrics for partitioned evaporation. In the companion paper Wang-Erlandsson et al. (2014) (hereafter Part 1), evaporation was partitioned into vegetation interception, floor interception, soil moisture evaporation and open-water evaporation (constituting the direct, purely physical fluxes, largely dominated by interception), and transpiration (delayed, biophysical flux). Here, we track these components forward as well as backward in time. We also include age tracers to study the atmospheric residence times of these evaporation components. We present a new image of the global hydrological cycle that includes quantification of partitioned evaporation and moisture recycling as well as the atmospheric residence times of all fluxes. We demonstrate that evaporated interception is more likely to return as precipitation on land than transpired water. On average, direct evaporation (essentially interception) is found to have an atmospheric residence time of 8 days, while transpiration typically resides for 9 days in the atmosphere. The process scale over which evaporation recycles is more local for interception compared to transpiration; thus interception generally precipitates closer to its evaporative source than transpiration, which is particularly pronounced outside the tropics. We conclude that interception mainly works as an intensifier of the local hydrological cycle during wet spells and wet seasons. On the other hand, transpiration remains active during dry spells and dry seasons and is transported over much larger distances downwind, where it can act as a significant source of moisture. Thus, as various land-use types can differ considerably in their partitioning between interception and transpiration, our results stress that land-use changes (e.g. forest-to-cropland conversion) do not only affect the magnitude of moisture recycling, but could also influence the moisture recycling patterns and lead to a redistribution of water resources. As such, this research highlights that land-use changes can have complex effects on the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle.},
author = {{van Der Ent}, R J and Keys, P W and Savenije, H H G},
doi = {10.5194/esd-5-471-2014},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
pages = {471--489},
title = {{Contrasting roles of interception and transpiration in the hydrological cycle – Part 2: Moisture recycling}},
volume = {5},
year = {2014}
}
@article{van2016drought,
author = {{Van Loon}, Anne F and Gleeson, Tom and Clark, Julian and {Van Dijk}, Albert I J M and Stahl, Kerstin and Hannaford, Jamie and {Di Baldassarre}, Giuliano and Teuling, Adriaan J and Tallaksen, Lena M and Uijlenhoet, Remko and Hannah, David M. and Sheffield, Justin and Svoboda, Mark and Verbeiren, Boud and Wagener, Thorsten and Rangecroft, Sally and Wanders, Niko and {Van Lanen}, Henny A. J.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2646},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {89--91},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Drought in the Anthropocene}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2646},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{VanNes2005,
abstract = {Although alternative stable states are commonly found in simple models, it seems reasonable to assume that the response of real ecosystems to environmental change should often be smoothed by spatial heterogeneity and other stabilizing mechanisms. Here, we systematically explore the effect of spatial heterogeneity on regime shifts for three different models, which we run on a one-dimensional lattice with different spatial distributions of an environmental factor (e.g., soil fertility, water level). If dispersion between patches is negligible, the response to gradual change in some overall Stressor (e.g., precipitation, nutrient load) is straightforward. Because of the environmental heterogeneity, each patch shifts to the other stable state at different values of the overall control variable. Therefore, the response of the ecosystem as a whole is gradual (i.e., the average of many asynchronous small shifts) instead of catastrophic. However, in response to a reverse change in the global Stressor, the system always shows hysteresis, as each individual patch shifts back to the original state at a different value of the control parameter than the critical threshold for the forward shift. If dispersion between patches occurs, the response to change in the overall control parameter becomes dependent on the spatial pattern of environmental heterogeneity. If the environmental parameter is randomly distributed in space, the overall response tends to remain surprisingly catastrophic, and hysteresis is hardly reduced as compared to the homogeneous case. By contrast, in a smooth environmental gradient, the response of the overall system is gradual, and hysteresis is much smaller. In fact, hysteresis is largely reduced to the initial phases, in which none of the patches have shifted to the alternative state yet. As soon as the first patch shifts, a domino effect occurs, pushing over the neighboring patches. In conclusion, our results suggest that spatial heterogeneity may weaken the tendency for large-scale catastrophic regime shifts if dispersion is unimportant or if local environmental characteristics vary along a smooth gradient.},
author = {{Van Nes}, Egbert H. and Scheffer, Marten},
doi = {10.1890/04-0550},
isbn = {0012-9658},
issn = {00129658},
journal = {Ecology},
keywords = {Hysteresis,Lattice model,Mobile link organisms,Multiple attractors,Regime shifts,Spatial heterogeneity},
pages = {1797--1807},
pmid = {639},
title = {{Implications of spatial heterogeneity for catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems}},
volume = {86},
year = {2005}
}
@article{vwssaohlvc17,
abstract = {During August 25–30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26–28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy −1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5{\%} one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy −1 ) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12{\%} and 22{\%}, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15{\%} (8{\%}–19{\%}) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5–5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston's flood protection system.},
author = {van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and van der Wiel, Karin and Sebastian, Antonia and Singh, Roop and Arrighi, Julie and Otto, Friederike and Haustein, Karsten and Li, Sihan and Vecchi, Gabriel and Cullen, Heidi},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {124009},
title = {{Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Vanniere2018CD,
abstract = {This study undertakes a multi-model comparison with the aim to describe and quantify systematic changes of the global energy and water budgets when the horizontal resolution of atmospheric models is increased and to identify common factors of these changes among models. To do so, we analyse an ensemble of twelve atmosphere-only and six coupled GCMs, with different model formulations and with resolutions spanning those of state-of-the-art coupled GCMs, i.e. from resolutions coarser than 100 km to resolutions finer than 25 km. The main changes in the global energy budget with resolution are a systematic increase in outgoing longwave radiation and decrease in outgoing shortwave radiation due to changes in cloud properties, and a systematic increase in surface latent heat flux; when resolution is increased from 100 to 25 km, the magnitude of the change of those fluxes can be as large as 5 W m−2. Moreover, all but one atmosphere-only model simulate a decrease of the poleward energy transport at higher resolution, mainly explained by a reduction of the equator-to-pole tropospheric temperature gradient. Regarding hydrological processes, our results are the following: (1) there is an increase of global precipitation with increasing resolution in all models (up to 40 × 103 km3 year−1) but the partitioning between land and ocean varies among models; (2) the fraction of total precipitation that falls on land is on average 10{\%} larger at higher resolution in grid point models, but it is smaller at higher resolution in spectral models; (3) grid points models simulate an increase of the fraction of land precipitation due to moisture convergence twice as large as in spectral models; (4) grid point models, which have a better resolved orography, show an increase of orographic precipitation of up to 13 × 103 km3 year−1 which explains most of the change in land precipitation; (5) at the regional scale, precipitation pattern and amplitude are improved with increased resolution due to a better simulated seasonal mean circulation. We discuss our results against several observational estimates of the Earth's energy budget and hydrological cycle and show that they support recent high estimates of global precipitation.},
author = {Vanni{\`{e}}re, Beno{\^{i}}t and Demory, Marie-Estelle and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Schiemann, Reinhard and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Roberts, Christopher D. and Matsueda, Mio and Terray, Laurent and Koenigk, Torben and Senan, Retish},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4547-y},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Global energy budget,Global hydrological cycle,High- modelling,Sensitivity to model global energy budget,global hydrological cycle,high- modelling,sensitivity to model },
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {6817--6846},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Multi-model evaluation of the sensitivity of the global energy budget and hydrological cycle to resolution}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4547-y https://doi.org/10.1007{\%}2Fs00382-018-4547-y http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4547-y},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{v18,
abstract = {Contiguous time–height cloud objects at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are matched with surface condensation nuclei (CN) concentrations and retrieved thermodynamic and kinematic vertical profiles for warm-cloud-base, cold-cloud-top systems in convectively unstable environments. Statistical analyses show that previously published conclusions that increasing CN concentrations cause a decrease in minimum cloud-top temperature (CTT) at the SGP site through the aerosol convective invigoration effect are unfounded. The CN–CTT relationship is statistically insignificant, while correlations between convective available potential energy (CAPE), level of neutral buoyancy (LNB), and CN concentration account for most of the change in the CN–CTT positive correlation. Removal of clouds with minimum CTTs {\textgreater} −36°C from the analysis eliminates the CN–CTT correlation. Composited dirty conditions at the SGP have {\~{}}1°C-warmer low levels and {\~{}}1°C-cooler upper levels than clean conditions. This correlation between aerosol concentrations and thermodynamic profiles may be caused by an increase in regional rainfall preceding deep convective conditions as CN concentration decreases. Increased rainfall can be expected to increase wet deposition of aerosols, cool low-level temperatures, and warm upper-level temperatures. The masking of a potential aerosol effect by such small thermodynamic changes implies that the strategy of analyzing subsets of aerosol data by binned meteorological factor values is not a valid method for discerning an aerosol effect in some situations. These findings highlight the need for more careful, detailed, and strategic observations to confidently isolate and quantify an aerosol deep convective invigoration effect.},
author = {Varble, Adam},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-17-0217.1},
issn = {0022-4928},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1351--1368},
title = {{Erroneous Attribution of Deep Convective Invigoration to Aerosol Concentration}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0217.1},
volume = {75},
year = {2018}
}
@article{vajrfbg19,
author = {Varino, Filipa and Arbogast, Philippe and Joly, Bruno and Riviere, Gwendal and Fandeur, Marie-Laure and Bovy, Henry and Granier, Jean-Baptiste},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4176-5},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {1027--1048},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter cyclones variability over the 20th century derived from ERA-20C reanalysis}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4176-5 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4176-5},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{IPCCObservationsCryosphereVaughan2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Vaughan, D G and Comiso, J C and Allison, I and Carrasco, J and Kaser, G and Kwok, R and Mote, P and Murray, T and Paul, F and Ren, J and Rignot, E and Solomina, O and Steffen, K and Zhang, T},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
chapter = {4},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.012},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {317--382},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Observations: Cryosphere}},
type = {Book Section},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Vazifehkhah2018,
author = {Vazifehkhah, Saeed and Kahya, Ercan},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5680},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {oct},
number = {12},
pages = {4459--4475},
title = {{Hydrological drought associations with extreme phases of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations over Turkey and northern Iran}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5680},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vecchi2007,
abstract = {This study examines the response of the tropical atmospheric and oceanic circulation to increasing greenhouse gases using a coordinated set of twenty-first-century climate model experiments performed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The strength of the atmospheric overturning circulation decreases as the climate warms in all IPCC AR4 models, in a manner consistent with the thermodynamic scaling arguments of Held and Soden. The weakening occurs preferentially in the zonally asymmetric (i.e., Walker) rather than zonal-mean (i.e., Hadley) component of the tropical circulation and is shown to induce substantial changes to the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical oceans. Evidence suggests that the overall circulation weakens by decreasing the frequency of strong updrafts and increasing the frequency of weak updrafts, although the robustness of this behavior across all models cannot be confirmed because of the lack of data. As the climate warms, changes in both the atmospheric and ocean circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean resemble “El Ni{\~{n}}o–like” conditions; however, the mechanisms are shown to be distinct from those of El Ni{\~{n}}o and are reproduced in both mixed layer and full ocean dynamics coupled climate models. The character of the Indian Ocean response to global warming resembles that of Indian Ocean dipole mode events. The consensus of model results presented here is also consistent with recently detected changes in sea level pressure since the mid–nineteenth century.},
author = {Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Soden, Brian J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI4258.1},
isbn = {0894-8755$\backslash$n1520-0442},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {4316--4340},
title = {{Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/20/17/4316/31117/Global-Warming-and-the-Weakening-of-the-Tropical},
volume = {20},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Veldkamp2018,
author = {Veldkamp, T I E and Zhao, F and Ward, P J and de Moel, H and Aerts, J C J H and Schmied, H M{\"{u}}ller and Portmann, F T and Masaki, Y and Pokhrel, Y and Liu, X and Satoh, Y and Gerten, D and Gosling, S N and Zaherpour, J and Wada, Y},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab96f},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {055008},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improve estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=5/a=055008?key=crossref.46fc840eeb0783d0ba1428e968e1ac73},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vera2018,
author = {Vera, Carolina S. and Osman, Marisol},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5419},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {apr},
pages = {e1288--e1295},
title = {{Activity of the Southern Annular Mode during 2015–2016 El Ni{\~{n}}o event and its impact on Southern Hemisphere climate anomalies}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5419},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vera2019,
abstract = {Changes in the summer rainfall and 200-hPa zonal winds (U200) in the South American Altiplano are studied from 1902 to 2018 using three different reanalysis datasets and simulations from 14 climate models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). No significant trend in rainfall was identified from GPCC reanalysis data over that period. On the other hand, regional U200 trends estimated from 20C and ERA20C reanalyses and from CMIP5 Historical simulations are significant and positive over the 1902–2005 period. However, the trends seem to be dependent on the reanalysis dataset and period considered. While no significant U200 trend is detected in simulations forced only by external natural sources, the mean trend is positive and significant in simulations forced only by the increment of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, a signal associated with the anthropogenic forcing of climate change has been detected in U200 trends in the Altiplano, but it is weak as compared with the internal climate variability. Singular value decomposition analyses based on both reanalyzed and simulated data were performed to describe the co-variability between rainfall in the Altiplano, regional U200 and global sea surface temperature (SST). The analysis confirms that negative rainfall anomalies in the Altiplano, associated with positive U200 anomalies, are related with positive SST anomalies mainly in the tropical Pacific-Indian Oceans. Simulations can reproduce observed relationships and confirm that natural variability explains the observed year-to-year variability. Simulations also confirm that anthropogenic forcing is a necessary condition to explain the positive trends detected in the co-variability between tropical SST and regional U200 anomalies. However, the large influence exerted by the South American Monsoon over the region can also affect sign and magnitude of the changes in the Altiplano. No significant relationship was found from CMIP5 simulations between poleward displacements of the global Hadley cell and regional U200 changes. Instead, South American Hadley cell displacements are significantly correlated with regional U200 changes. The latter might be an additional evidence of the combined influence of both tropical surface ocean and South America Monsoon on the circulation changes in the Altiplano in the global warming context.},
author = {Vera, Carolina S and D{\'{i}}az, Leandro B and Saurral, Ramiro I},
doi = {10.3389/fenvs.2019.00087},
isbn = {2296-665X},
issn = {2296-665X},
journal = {Frontiers in Environmental Science},
month = {jun},
pages = {87},
title = {{Influence of Anthropogenically-Forced Global Warming and Natural Climate Variability in the Rainfall Changes Observed Over the South American Altiplano}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00087 https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00087/full},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Vera2015,
abstract = {Austral summer rainfall trends are analysed over South America from observations and simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 between 1902 and 2005. Positive trends in southeastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn) are the most significant observed features. Mean trends obtained from an ensemble of 59 simulations from 14 models for the historical experiment (including both natural and anthropogenic forcings) are able to reproduce those precipitation changes, although weaker than observed. Most of the simulations reproduce the right sign of the precipitation changes at both regions. However, associated uncertainty ranges (due to both inter-model dispersion and internal climate variability) are still large. Mean trends for the historical experiment are statistically distinguishable from those obtained for the natural-forcing-only experiment, which exhibit negligible mean values at both regions. Results allow concluding that the anthropogenic forcing has at least a partial contribution in explaining the precipitation changes observed in both SESA and SAn regions during the last century.},
author = {Vera, Carolina S. and D{\'{i}}az, Leandro},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4153},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Anthropogenic forcing,Climate change,Precipitation trends,South America},
month = {aug},
number = {10},
pages = {3172--3177},
title = {{Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4153},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Vergara-Temprado2020,
abstract = {The "gray zone" of convection is defined as the range of horizontal grid-space resolutions at which convective processes are partially but not fully resolved explicitly by the model dynamics (typically estimated from a few kilometers to a few hundred meters). The representation of convection at these scales is challenging, as both parameterizing convective processes or relying on the model dynamics to resolve them might cause systematic model biases. Here, a regional climate model over a large European domain is used to study model biases when either using parameterizations of deep and shallow convection or representing convection explicitly. For this purpose, year-long simulations at horizontal resolutions between 50- and 2.2-km grid spacing are performed and evaluated with datasets of precipitation, surface temperature, and top-of-theatmosphere radiation over Europe. While simulations with parameterized convection seem more favorable than using explicit convection at around 50-km resolution, at higher resolutions (grid spacing {\#} 25 km) models tend to perform similarly or even better for certain model skills when deep convection is turned off. At these finer scales, the representation of deep convection has a larger effect in model performance than changes in resolution when looking at hourly precipitation statistics and the representation of the diurnal cycle, especially over nonorographic regions. The shortwave net radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere is the variable most strongly affected by resolution changes, due to the better representation of cloud dynamical processes at higher resolutions. These results suggest that an explicit representation of convection may be beneficial in representing some aspects of climate over Europe at much coarser resolutions than previously thought, thereby reducing some of the uncertainties derived from parameterizing deep convection.},
author = {Vergara-Temprado, Jes{\'{u}}s and Ban, Nikolina and Panosetti, Davide and Schlemmer, Linda and Sch{\"{a}}r, Christoph},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0286.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {5},
pages = {1915--1933},
title = {{Climate models permit convection at much coarser resolutions than previously considered}},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Vergnes2014,
author = {Vergnes, J.-P. and Decharme, B. and Habets, F.},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD021573},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {10.1002/2015JD024595 and aerosol,cloud reflectivity,hygroscopicity,lapse rate,spectral width},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {11065--11086},
title = {{Introduction of groundwater capillary rises using subgrid spatial variability of topography into the ISBA land surface model}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013JD020225 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD021573},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{vm17,
abstract = {The Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), version 2, was run with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), version 3.6.1, in an offline regional test over western Canada. Forcing data were derived from ERA-Interim and downscaled using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). The forcing precipitation field was adjusted using monthly data from the Canadian Gridded Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD) observation-based dataset. The modeled surface air temperature was evaluated against CANGRD data, the modeled albedo against MODIS data, and the modeled snow water equivalent against Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) and Global Snow Monitoring for Climate Research (GlobSnow) data. The lake simulation itself was evaluated using the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) Reprocessing for Climate: Lake Surface Water Temperature and Ice Cover (ARC-Lake) dataset. Summer surface lake temperatures and the lake ice formation and breakup periods were well simulated, except for slight warm/cold summer/fall surface temperature biases, early ice breakup, and early ice formation, consistent with warm/cold biases in the climate simulation. Tests were carried out to investigate the sensitivity of the CSLM simulation to the default values assigned to the shortwave extinction coefficient and the average lake depth, and changing the former from 0.5 to 2.0 m−1 and the latter from 10.0 to 50.0 or 5.0 m had minimal effects on the simulation. Comparisons of the average annual variations of the simulated net shortwave radiation, turbulent fluxes, snowpack, and maximum and minimum daily surface temperatures between the land and the lake fractions for tundra, boreal, and southern regions showed patterns consistent with those expected. Finally, a test of the CSLM over the large resolved lakes in the model domain demonstrated a performance comparable to that for subgrid lakes.},
author = {Verseghy, Diana L and MacKay, Murray D},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-16-0272.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1563--1582},
title = {{Offline Implementation and Evaluation of the Canadian Small Lake Model with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme over Western Canada}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0272.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0272.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Viale2018,
abstract = {This study quantifies the impact of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on precipitation in southern South America. An AR detection algorithm was developed based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) from 6-hourly CFSR reanalysis data over a 16-yr period (2001–16). AR landfalls were linked to precipitation using a comprehensive observing network that spanned large variations in terrain along and across the Andes from 27° to 55°S, including some sites with hourly data. Along the Pacific (west) coast, AR landfalls are most frequent between 38° and 50°S, averaging 35–40 days yr−1. This decreases rapidly to the south and north of this maximum, as well as to the east of the Andes. Landfalling ARs are more frequent in winter/spring (summer/fall) to the north (south) of {\~{}}43°S. ARs contribute 45{\%}–60{\%} of the annual precipitation in subtropical Chile (37°–32°S) and 40{\%}–55{\%} along the midlatitude west coast (37°–47°S). These values significantly exceed those in western North America, likely due to the Andes being taller. In subtropical and midlatitude regions, roughly half of all events with top-quartile precipitation rates occur under AR conditions. Median daily and hourly precipitation in ARs is 2–3 times that of other storms. The results of this study extend knowledge of the key roles of ARs on precipitation, weather, and climate in the South American region. They enable comparisons with other areas globally, provide context for specific events, and support local nowcasting and forecasting.},
author = {Viale, Maximiliano and Valenzuela, Ra{\'{u}}l and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} D and Ralph, F Martin},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-18-0006.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {1671--1687},
title = {{Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Southern South America}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0006.1},
volume = {19},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vicente-Serrano2018,
abstract = {AbstractThis article developed and implemented a new methodology for calculating the standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI) globally based on the log-logistic distribution to fit the evaporation deficit (ED), the difference between actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and atmospheric evaporative demand (AED). Our findings demonstrate that, regardless of the AED dataset used, a log-logistic distribution most optimally fitted the ED time series. As such, in many regions across the terrestrial globe, the SEDI is insensitive to the AED method used for calculation, with the exception of winter months and boreal regions. The SEDI showed significant correlations (p {\textless} 0.05) with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) across a wide range of regions, particularly for short ({\textless}3 month) SPEI time scales. This work provides a robust approach for calculating spatially and temporally comparable SEDI estimates, regardless of the climate region and land surface conditions, and it assesses t...},
author = {Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. and Miralles, Diego G. and Dom{\'{i}}nguez-Castro, Fernando and Azorin-Molina, Cesar and {El Kenawy}, Ahmed and Mcvicar, Tim R. and Tom{\'{a}}s-Burguera, Miquel and Beguer{\'{i}}a, Santiago and Maneta, Marco and Pe{\~{n}}a-Gallardo, Marina},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0775.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate variability,Drought,Evapotranspiration,Hydrometeorology,Indices},
number = {14},
pages = {5371--5393},
title = {{Global assessment of the standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI) for drought analysis and monitoring}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vicente-Serrano2020,
abstract = {This review examines the role of the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) in drought. AED is a complex concept and here we discuss possible AED definitions, the subsequent metrics to measure and estimate AED, and the different physical drivers that control it. The complex influence of AED on meteorological, environmental/agricultural and hydrological droughts is discussed, stressing the important spatial differences related to the climatological conditions. Likewise, AED influence on drought has implications regarding how different drought metrics consider AED in their attempts to quantify drought severity. Throughout the article, we assess literature findings with respect to: (a) recent drought trends and future projections; (b) the several uncertainties related to data availability; (c) the sensitivity of current drought metrics to AED; and (d) possible roles that both the radiative and physiological effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations may play as we progress into the future. All these issues preclude identifying a simple effect of the AED on drought severity. Rather it calls for different evaluations of drought impacts and trends under future climate scenarios, considering the complex feedbacks governing the climate system. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends {\textgreater} Earth System Behavior.},
author = {Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. and McVicar, Tim R. and Miralles, Diego G. and Yang, Yuting and Tomas-Burguera, Miquel},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.632},
issn = {17577799},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
keywords = {atmospheric evaporative demand,evapotranspiration},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {e632},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.632},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Vicente-Serrano2014,
abstract = {We use high quality climate data from ground meteorological stations in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and robust drought indices to confirm that drought severity has increased in the past five decades, as a consequence of greater atmospheric evaporative demand resulting from temperature rise. Increased drought severity is independent of the model used to quantify the reference evapotranspiration. We have also focused on drought impacts to drought-sensitive systems, such as river discharge, by analyzing streamflow data for 287 rivers in the IP, and found that hydrological drought frequency and severity have also increased in the past five decades in natural, regulated and highly regulated basins. Recent positive trend in the atmospheric water demand has had a direct influence on the temporal evolution of streamflows, clearly identified during the warm season, in which higher evapotranspiration rates are recorded. This pattern of increase in evaporative demand and greater drought severity is probably applicable to other semiarid regions of the world, including other Mediterranean areas, the Sahel, southern Australia and South Africa, and can be expected to increasingly compromise water supplies and cause political, social and economic tensions among regions in the near future. {\textcopyright} 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd.},
author = {Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. and Lopez-Moreno, Juan-I and Beguer{\'{i}}a, Santiago and Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge and Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo and Garc{\'{i}}a-Ruiz, Jos{\'{e}} M. and Azorin-Molina, Cesar and Mor{\'{a}}n-Tejeda, Enrique and Revuelto, Jes{\'{u}}s and Trigo, Ricardo and Coelho, Fatima and Espejo, Francisco},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climatic change,evapotranspiration,streamflow,water resources},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {044001},
title = {{Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Vicente-Serrano2020b,
abstract = {We analysed long-term variability and trends in meteorological droughts across Western Europe using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Precipitation data from 199 stations spanning the period 1851–2018 were employed, following homogenisation, to derive SPI-3 and SPI-12 series for each station, together with indices on drought duration and severity. Results reveal a general absence of statistically significant long-term trends in the study domain, with the exception of significant trends at some stations, generally covering short periods. The largest decreasing trends in SPI-3 (i.e., increasing drought conditions) were found for summer in the British and Irish Isles. In general, drought episodes experienced in the last two or three decades have precedents during the last 170{\textperiodcentered}years, emphasizing the importance of long records for assessing change. The main characteristic of drought variability in Western Europe is its strong spatial diversity, with regions exhibiting a homogeneous temporal evolution. Notably, the temporal variability of drought in Western Europe is more dominant than long-term trends. This suggests that long-term drought trends cannot be confirmed in Western Europe using precipitation records alone. This study provides a long-term regional assessment of drought variability in Western Europe, which can contribute to better understanding of regional climate change during the past two centuries.},
author = {Vicente‐Serrano, Sergio M. and Dom{\'{i}}nguez‐Castro, Fernando and Murphy, Conor and Hannaford, Jamie and Reig, Fergus and Pe{\~{n}}a‐Angulo, Dhais and Tramblay, Yves and Trigo, Ricardo M. and {Mac Donald}, Neil and Luna, M. Yolanda and {Mc Carthy}, Mark and {Van der Schrier}, Gerard and Turco, Marco and Camuffo, Dario and Noguera, Ivan and Garc{\'{i}}a‐Herrera, Ricardo and Becherini, Francesca and {Della Valle}, Antonio and Tomas‐Burguera, Miquel and {El Kenawy}, Ahmed},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6719},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Mediterranean,Standardized Precipitation Index,Western Europe,drought,instrumental period,precipitation,trends},
month = {jan},
number = {S1},
pages = {E690--E717},
title = {{Long‐term variability and trends in meteorological droughts in Western Europe (1851–2018)}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6719},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Vicente-Serrano2019a,
abstract = {Abstract Attribution of trends in streamflow is complex, but essential, in identifying optimal management options for water resources. Disagreement remains on the relative role of climate change and human factors, including water abstractions and land cover change, in driving change in annual streamflow. We construct a very dense network of gauging stations (n=1874) from Ireland, the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Portugal for the period of 1961-2012 to detect and then attribute changes in annual streamflow. Using regression-based techniques, we show that climate (precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand) explains many of the observed trends in northwest Europe, while for southwest Europe human disturbances better explain both temporal and spatial trends. For the latter, large increases in irrigated areas, agricultural intensification and natural revegetation of marginal lands are inferred to be the dominant drivers of decreases in streamflow.},
author = {Vicente‐Serrano, S. M. and Pe{\~{n}}a‐Gallardo, M. and Hannaford, J. and Murphy, C. and Lorenzo‐Lacruz, J. and Dominguez‐Castro, F. and L{\'{o}}pez‐Moreno, J. I. and Beguer{\'{i}}a, S. and Noguera, I. and Harrigan, S. and Vidal, J.-P.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084084},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {10821--10833},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Climate, Irrigation, and Land Cover Change Explain Streamflow Trends in Countries Bordering the Northeast Atlantic}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL084084},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Vihma2016,
abstract = {Abstract Atmospheric humidity, clouds, precipitation, and evapotranspiration are essential components of the Arctic climate system. During recent decades, specific humidity and precipitation have generally increased in the Arctic, but changes in evapotranspiration are poorly known. Trends in clouds vary depending on the region and season. Climate model experiments suggest that increases in precipitation are related to global warming. In turn, feedbacks associated with the increase in atmospheric moisture and decrease in sea ice and snow cover have contributed to the Arctic amplification of global warming. Climate models have captured the overall wetting trend but have limited success in reproducing regional details. For the rest of the 21st century, climate models project strong warming and increasing precipitation, but different models yield different results for changes in cloud cover. The model differences are largest in months of minimum sea ice cover. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase in winter but in summer to decrease over the oceans and increase over land. Increasing net precipitation increases river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Over sea ice in summer, projected increase in rain and decrease in snowfall decrease the surface albedo and, hence, further amplify snow/ice surface melt. With reducing sea ice, wind forcing on the Arctic Ocean increases with impacts on ocean currents and freshwater transport out of the Arctic. Improvements in observations, process understanding, and modeling capabilities are needed to better quantify the atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle and its changes.},
author = {Vihma, Timo and Screen, James and Tjernstr{\"{o}}m, Michael and Newton, Brandi and Zhang, Xiangdong and Popova, Valeria and Deser, Clara and Holland, Marika and Prowse, Terry},
doi = {10.1002/2015JG003132},
issn = {2169-8953},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences},
keywords = {Arctic,air humidity,climate change,clouds,evaporation,precipitation},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {586--620},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003132},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Vihma2014,
author = {Vihma, Timo},
doi = {10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0},
issn = {0169-3298},
journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
month = {sep},
number = {5},
pages = {1175--1214},
title = {{Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0},
volume = {35},
year = {2014}
}
@article{dbakj14,
abstract = {The multi-satellite-retrieved (ESA CCI SM) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System-Noah-simulated (GLDAS-Noah) surface soil moisture (SM) datasets are compared for global drought analysis over a multi-decadal time period (1991–2015). Global drought events and their duration, frequency and severity are assessed on a grid basis with soil moisture anomaly percentage index (SMAPI). The results show that the ESA CCI SM and the GLDAS-Noah based SMAPI values are significantly (p {\textless} 0.05) correlated over most (83{\%}) of the study region, of seasonally dependent. Both datasets show similar global patterns in drought duration, drought frequency and drought severity. The droughts present generally longer duration, higher frequency and more severity in arid and semi-arid regions than humid and sub-humid regions. The ESA CCI SM droughts are relatively higher in frequency and more intense in severity than the GLDAS-Noah SM droughts in many regions of the globe, while the two datasets show considerable differences in drought duration over arid, semi-arid and highly vegetated regions. For long-term trend detection, both datasets show high consistency in spatial pattern of SMAPI, with major significant drying trends in arid and semi-arid regions. Part ({\~{}}20{\%}) trends are confirmed by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation dataset using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The two SM datasets exhibit large disparity in trending drought duration, drought frequency and drought severity. Despite that, both show major significant increasing trends in arid and semi-arid regions. Both soil moisture datasets are capable of identifying extreme drought events reported in southern China, North America, Europe and southern Africa. The ESA CCI SM dataset is more effective in determining the severity and spatial pattern of drought excluding densely vegetated regions, while the GLDAS-Noah dataset is more powerful in detecting drought occurrence, even over densely vegetated regions. Overall, the ESA CCI SM and GLDAS-Noah SM show potential in global drought analysis, yet cautions should be paid to arid and semi-arid regions where drying trends are prevalent and large discrepancy presents between two datasets.},
author = {Vilasa, L. and Miralles, D. G. and de Jeu, R. A. M. and Dolman, A. J. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Mankin, Justin S. and Anchukaitis, Kevin J. and Yuan, Shanshui and Quiring, Steven M. and Mueller, Brigitte and Zhang, Xuebin and Liu, Yuanbo Yongwei and Liu, Yuanbo Yongwei and Wang, Wen and Jia, Binghao and Liu, Jianguo and Xie, Zhenghui and Shi, Chunxiang and L'Heureux, Michelle L. and Lee, Sukyoung and Lyon, Bradfield and Sohn, B. J. and Yeh, Sang Wook and Schmetz, Johannes and Song, Hwan Jin and Xie, Shang Ping and Deser, Clara and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Ma, Jian and Teng, Haiyan and Wittenberg, Andrew T. and Soden, Brian J. and Wittenberg, Andrew T. and Held, Isaac M. and Leetmaa, Ants and Harrison, Matthew J. and Douville, H. and Plazzotta, M. and Ribes, A. and Decharme, B. and Alkama, R. and Sheffield, Justin and Berg, Alexis and Sheffield, Justin and Rodell, M and Famiglietti, J S and Wiese, D N and Reager, J T and Beaudoing, H K and Landerer, F W and Lo, M.-H. and Zhang, Q and Fan, K and Singh, V P and Song, C and Xu, C and Sun, P and Famiglietti, J S and Cazenave, A and Eicker, A and Reager, J T and Rodell, M and Velicogna, I and Fasullo, J and Lawrence, D and Swenson, S and Marvel, K and Cook, Benjamin I. and Bonfils, C and Durack, P and Smerdon, J and Williams, P and Bellomo, K and Clement, A C and Bordbar, M H and Martin, T and Latif, M and Park, W and de Boiss{\'{e}}son, E and Balmaseda, M A and Abdalla, S and K"all{\'{e}}n, E and Janssen, P A E M and Coats, S and Karnauskas, K B and Knutson, T R and Manabe, S and Kociuba, G and Power, S B and Kosaka, Y and Xie, Shang Ping and Kucharski, F and Kang, I.‐s. and Farneti, R and Feudale, L and Ma, S and Zhou, T and McGregor, S and Timmermann, A and Stuecker, M F and England, M H and Merrifield, M A and Jin, F.-f. and Chikamoto, Y and Meng, Q and Latif, M and Park, W and Keenlyside, N S and Semenov, V A and Martin, T and Merrifield, M A and Polvani, L and Bellomo, K and Power, S B and Kociuba, G and Sohn, B. J. and Park, S.-c. and Takahashi, C and Watanabe, M and Tokinaga, H and Xie, Shang Ping and Deser, Clara and Kosaka, Y and Okumura, Y M},
doi = {10.1175/2011JCLI4101.1},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate change over the tropics,Congenital ophthalmoplegia,Decadal variation,Detection and attribution,Drought,El Nino,Extraocular muscles,GLDAS-Noah,GPCC,Global s,Oculomotor nerve,Paleoclimate,Satellite datasets,Soil moisture,Trochlear nerve,Walker attribution,climate change,emerging constraint,land surface },
month = {may},
number = {4},
pages = {20--35},
pmid = {16672967},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013713 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074622 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072355 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065463 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0123-1 https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2F2009jcli3329.1 https://doi.org/10.1007{\%}25},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{v,
abstract = {This study investigates the changes in annual and seasonal maximum daily rainfall (RX1day) in Southeast Asia, obtained from gauge-based gridded precipitation data, to address the increasing concerns about climate change in the region. First, the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was employed to detect significant trends in RX1day. Then, maximum likelihood modeling, which allows the incorporation of covariates in the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, was conducted to determine whether the rising global mean temperature, as well as El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is influencing extreme rainfall over the region. The findings revealed that annual and seasonal RX1day is significantly increasing in Indochina and east-central Philippines while decreasing in most parts of the Maritime Continent during the past 57 yr (1951–2007). The trends in RX1day were further linked to the rising global mean temperature. It was shown that the location parameter of the GEV—and hence the RX1day on average—has significantly covaried with the annually averaged near-surface global mean temperature anomaly. Such covariation is pronouncedly observed over the regions where significant trends in RX1day were detected. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that, as ENSO develops in July–September, negative covariations between the location parameter of the GEV and the ENSO index, implying a higher (lower) likelihood of extreme rainfall during La Ni{\~{n}}a (El Ni{\~{n}}o), were observed over the Maritime Continent. Such conditions progress northward to the regions of Indochina and the Philippines as ENSO approaches its maturity in October–December and then retreat southward as the ENSO weakens in the ensuing seasons.},
author = {Villafuerte, Marcelino Q. and Matsumoto, Jun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00531.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Asia,Climate change,ENSO,Statistical techniques,Trends,Tropical variability},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {1905--1919},
title = {{Significant Influences of Global Mean Temperature and ENSO on Extreme Rainfall in Southeast Asia}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00531.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Vincent2015,
abstract = {Trends in Canada's climate are analyzed using recently updated data to provide a comprehensive view of climate variability and long-term changes over the period of instrumental record. Trends in surface air temperature, precipitation, snow cover, and streamflow indices are examined along with the potential impact of low-frequency variability related to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic oscillations on these trends. The results show that temperature has increased significantly in most regions of Canada over the period 1948–2012, with the largest warming occurring in winter and spring. Precipitation has also increased, especially in the north. Changes in other climate and hydroclimatic variables, including a decrease in the amount of precipitation falling as snow in the south, fewer days with snow cover, an earlier start of the spring high-flow season, and an increase in April streamflow, are consistent with the observed warming and precipitation trends. For the period 1900–2012, there are sufficient temperature and precipitation data for trend analysis for southern Canada (south of 60°N) only. During this period, temperature has increased significantly across the region, precipitation has increased, and the amount of precipitation falling as snow has decreased in many areas south of 55°N. The results also show that modes of low-frequency variability modulate the spatial distribution and strength of the trends; however, they alone cannot explain the observed long-term trends in these climate variables.},
author = {Vincent, Lucie A. and Zhang, X. and Brown, R. D. and Feng, Y. and Mekis, E. and Milewska, E. J. and Wan, H. and Wang, X. L.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00697.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate variability,Oscillations,Snow cover,Surface temperature,Trends},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {4545--4560},
title = {{Observed Trends in Canada's Climate and Influence of Low-Frequency Variability Modes}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00697.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Vishnu2016a,
author = {Vishnu, S and Francis, P A and Shenoi, S S C and Ramakrishna, S S V S},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014011},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {014011},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{On the decreasing trend of the number of monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014011},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Viste2013,
author = {Viste, Ellen and Korecha, Diriba and Sorteberg, Asgeir},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-012-0746-3},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
pages = {535--551},
title = {{Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia}},
volume = {112},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Vizy2017,
abstract = {AbstractPrior results indicate an amplified annual mean warming trend over the Sahara, with temperature trends that are 2–4 times that of the tropical mean rate. Trend analysis is conducted using five atmospheric reanalyses and three observational datasets to better understand the seasonality and physical processes of this amplified warming and the implications for Sahel precipitation. The seasonality of the amplified warming is maximum during July–October with a minimum during June. Two processes related to the amplified warming are identified. A “dry process” supports amplified warming over the Sahara when there is limited latent heating and/or evaporation to cool the surface and distribute heat to the atmosphere. In this mechanism, the warming results from changes in the upward longwave and downward longwave fluxes that are tightly coupled to each other. The second, termed a “wet process,” occurs during the summer West African monsoon season. In this mechanism there are increases in the low- and midlev...},
author = {Vizy, Edward K. and Cook, Kerry H. and Vizy, Edward K. and Cook, Kerry H.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0687.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Africa,Atmospheric circulation,Climate variability,Multidecadal variability,Trends,Tropical variability},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3073--3094},
title = {{Seasonality of the Observed Amplified Sahara Warming Trend and Implications for Sahel Rainfall}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0687.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Voelker2015,
abstract = {During the last deglaciation temperatures over midcontinental North America warmed dramatically through the B{\o}lling-Aller{\o}d, underwent a cool period associated with the Younger-Dryas and then reverted to warmer, near modern temperatures during the early Holocene. However, paleo proxy records of the hydroclimate of this period have presented divergent evidence. We reconstruct summer relative humidity (RH) across the last deglacial period using a mechanistic model of cellulose and leaf water $\delta$ 18 O and $\delta$D combined with a pollen-based temperature proxy to interpret stable isotopes of sub-fossil wood. Midcontinental RH was similar to modern conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum, progressively increased during the B{\o}lling-Aller{\o}d, peaked during the Younger-Dryas, and declined sharply during the early Holocene. This RH record suggests deglacial summers were cooler and characterized by greater advection of moisture-laden air-masses from the Gulf of Mexico and subsequent entrainment over the mid-continent by a high-pressure system over the Laurentide ice sheet. These patterns help explain the formation of dark-colored cumulic horizons in many Great Plains paleosol sequences and the development of no-analog vegetation types common to the Midwest during the last deglacial period. Likewise, reduced early Holocene RH and precipitation correspond with a diminished glacial high-pressure system during the latter stages of ice-sheet collapse.},
author = {Voelker, Steven L. and Stambaugh, Michael C. and Guyette, Richard P. and Feng, Xiahong and Grimley, David A. and Leavitt, Steven W. and Panyushkina, Irina and Grimm, Eric C. and Marsicek, Jeremiah P. and Shuman, Bryan and {Brandon Curry}, B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.yqres.2015.01.001},
isbn = {0033-5894},
issn = {0033-5894},
journal = {Quaternary Research},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,B{\o}lling-Aller{\o}d,Glacial,Holocene,No-analog vegetation,Precipitation,Relative humidity,Stable isotope,Younger Dryas},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {336--344},
title = {{Deglacial Hydroclimate of Midcontinental North America}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0033589400002659/type/journal{\_}article},
volume = {83},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Voss2013a,
author = {Voss, Katalyn A. and Famiglietti, James S. and Lo, MinHui and de Linage, Caroline and Rodell, Matthew and Swenson, Sean C.},
doi = {10.1002/wrcr.20078},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {904--914},
title = {{Groundwater depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with implications for transboundary water management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran region}},
volume = {49},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Vuille2012,
abstract = {Abstract. We review the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) over the past {\~{}}2000 yr based on high-resolution stable isotope proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments. Our review is complemented by an analysis of an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) for the past 130 yr. Proxy records from the monsoon belt in the tropical Andes and SE Brazil show a very coherent behavior over the past 2 millennia with significant decadal to multidecadal variability superimposed on large excursions during three key periods: the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warm period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM's mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative {\&}delta;18O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand, the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000-yr historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. Our climatic interpretation of these archives is consistent with our isotope-based GCM analysis, which suggests that these sites are sensitive recorders of large-scale monsoon variations. We hypothesize that these centennial-scale climate anomalies were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity (amount of rainfall upstream over the Amazon Basin). This interpretation is supported by several independent records from different proxy archives and modeling studies. Although ENSO is the main forcing for {\&}delta;18O variability over tropical South America on interannual time scales, our results suggest that its influence may be significantly modulated by North Atlantic climate variability on longer time scales. Finally, our analyses indicate that isotopic proxies, because of their ability to integrate climatic information on large spatial scales, could complement more traditional proxies such as tree rings or documentary evidence. Future climate reconstruction efforts could potentially benefit from including isotopic proxies as large-scale predictors in order to better constrain past changes in the atmospheric circulation.},
author = {Vuille, M. and Burns, S. J. and Taylor, B. L. and Cruz, F. W. and Bird, B. W. and Abbott, M. B. and Kanner, L. C. and Cheng, H. and Novello, V. F.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-8-1309-2012},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
number = {4},
pages = {1309--1321},
title = {{A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia}},
volume = {8},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Wada2013,
author = {Wada, Yoshihide and Wisser, Dominik and Eisner, Stephanie and Fl{\"{o}}rke, Martina and Gerten, Dieter and Haddeland, Ingjerd and Hanasaki, Naota and Masaki, Yoshimitsu and Portmann, Felix T. and Stacke, Tobias and Tessler, Zachary and Schewe, Jacob},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50686},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {4626--4632},
title = {{Multimodel projections and uncertainties of irrigation water demand under climate change}},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Wada2014,
abstract = {Overuse of surface water and an increasing reliance on nonrenewable groundwater resources have been reported over various regions of the world, casting significant doubt on the sustainable water supply and food production met by irrigation. To assess the limitations of global water resources, numerous indicators have been developed, but they rarely consider nonrenewable water use. In addition, surface water over-abstraction is rarely assessed in the context of human and environmental water needs. Here, we perform a transient assessment of global water use over the historical period 1960–2010 as well as the future projections of 2011–2099, using a newly developed indicator: the blue water sustainability index (BlWSI). The BlWSI incorporates both nonrenewable groundwater use and nonsustainable water use that compromises environmental flow requirements. Our results reveal an increasing trend of water consumed from nonsustainable surface water and groundwater resources over the historical period (∼30{\%}), and this increase is projected to continue further towards the end of this century (∼40{\%}). The global amount of nonsustainable water consumption has been increasing especially since the late 1990s, despite a wetter climate and increasing water availability during this period. The BlWSI is the first tool suitable for consistently evaluating the renewability and degradation of surface water and groundwater resources as a result of human water over-abstraction.},
author = {Wada, Yoshihide and Bierkens, Marc F.P.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104003},
isbn = {1748-9326},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {104003},
title = {{Sustainability of global water use: Past reconstruction and future projections}},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Wada2010,
abstract = {In regions with frequent water stress and large aquifer systems groundwater is often used as an additional water source. If groundwater abstraction exceeds the natural groundwater recharge for extensive areas and long times, overexploitation or persistent groundwater depletion occurs. Here we provide a global overview of groundwater depletion (here defined as abstraction in excess of recharge) by assessing groundwater recharge with a global hydrological model and subtracting estimates of groundwater abstraction. Restricting our analysis to sub-humid to arid areas we estimate the total global groundwater depletion to have increased from 126 (32) km 3 a -1 in 1960 to 283 (40) km 3 a -1 in 2000. The latter equals 39 (10){\%} of the global yearly groundwater abstraction, 2 (0.6){\%} of the global yearly groundwater recharge, 0.8 (0.1){\%} of the global yearly continental runoff and 0.4 (0.06){\%} of the global yearly evaporation, contributing a considerable amount of 0.8 (0.1) mm a -1 to current sea-level rise. {\textcopyright} 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.},
author = {Wada, Yoshihide and {Van Beek}, Ludovicus P.H. and {Van Kempen}, Cheryl M. and Reckman, Josef W.T.M. and Vasak, Slavek and Bierkens, Marc F.P.},
doi = {10.1029/2010GL044571},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {20},
pages = {1--5},
title = {{Global depletion of groundwater resources}},
volume = {37},
year = {2010}
}
@article{esd-5-15-2014,
author = {Wada, Y and Wisser, D and Bierkens, M F P},
doi = {10.5194/esd-5-15-2014},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {15--40},
title = {{Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/5/15/2014/},
volume = {5},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Wagner2010,
abstract = {Many regions of the world experienced abrupt climate variability during the last glacial period (75–15 thousand years ago). These changes probably arose from interactions between Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, but the rapid and widespread propagation of these changes requires a large-scale atmospheric response whose details remain unclear. Here we use an oxygen isotope record from a speleothem collected from the Cave of the Bells, Arizona, USA, to reconstruct aridity in the southwestern United States during the last glacial period and deglaciation. We find that, during this period, aridity in the southwestern United States and climate in the North Atlantic region show similar patterns of variability. Periods of warmth in the North Atlantic Ocean, such as interstadials and the B{\o}lling–Aller{\o}d warming, correspond to drier conditions in the southwestern United States. Conversely, cooler temperatures in the high latitudes are associated with increased regional moisture. We propose that interstadial warming of the North Atlantic Ocean diverted the westerly storm track northward, perhaps through weakening of the Aleutian Low, and thereby reduced moisture delivery to southwestern North America. A similar response to future warming would exacerbate aridity in this already very dry region.},
author = {Wagner, J. D M and Cole, J. E. and Beck, J. W. and Patchett, P. J. and Henderson, G. M. and Barnett, H. R.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo707},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {110--113},
title = {{Moisture variability in the southwestern United States linked to abrupt glacial climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo707},
volume = {3},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Wainwright2019,
abstract = {An observed decline in the Eastern African Long Rains from the 1980s to late 2000s appears contrary to the projected increase under future climate change. This “Eastern African climate paradox” confounds use of climate projections for adaptation planning across Eastern Africa. Here we show the decline corresponds to a later onset and earlier cessation of the long rains, with a similar seasonal maximum in area-averaged daily rainfall. Previous studies have explored the role of remote teleconnections, but those mechanisms do not sufficiently explain the decline or the newly identified change in seasonality. Using a large ensemble of observations, reanalyses and atmospheric simulations, we propose a regional mechanism that explains both the observed decline and the recent partial recovery. A decrease in surface pressure over Arabia and warmer north Arabian Sea is associated with enhanced southerlies and an earlier cessation of the long rains. This is supported by a similar signal in surface pressure in many atmosphere-only models giving lower May rainfall and an earlier cessation. Anomalously warm seas south of Eastern Africa delay the northward movement of the tropical rain-band, giving a later onset. These results are key in understanding the paradox. It is now a priority to establish the balance of mechanisms that have led to these trends, which are partially captured in atmosphere-only simulations.},
author = {Wainwright, Caroline M and Marsham, John H and Keane, Richard J and Rowell, David P and Finney, Declan L and Black, Emily and Allan, Richard P and Marsham, John H and Keane, Richard J and Rowell, David P and Finney, Declan L and Black, Emily and Allan, Richard P and Marsham, John H and Keane, Richard J and Rowell, David P},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
number = {1},
pages = {34},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{‘Eastern African Paradox' rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7},
volume = {2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Waliser_2017,
abstract = {Atmospheric rivers[mdash]long, narrow filaments of large integrated water vapour transport[mdash]are associated with weather and water extremes, such as precipitation extremes and flooding in western North America and northern Europe. Here we apply a global detection algorithm for atmospheric rivers to reanalysis data during 1997-2014 to investigate the impact of atmospheric rivers on wind extremes as well as precipitation extremes. We find that atmospheric rivers are associated with up to half of the extreme events in the top 2{\%} of the precipitation and wind distribution, across most mid-latitude regions globally. Landfalling atmospheric rivers are associated with about 40-75{\%} of extreme wind and precipitation events over 40{\%} of the world[rsquor]s coastlines. Atmospheric rivers are associated with a doubling or more of the typical wind speed compared to all storm conditions, and a 50-100{\%} increase in the wind and precipitation values for extreme events. We also find that the majority of extreme wind events catalogued between 1997 and 2013 over Europe with billion US dollar losses were associated with atmospheric rivers. We conclude that landfalling atmospheric rivers can represent a significant hazard around the globe, because of their association with not only extreme precipitation, but also extreme winds.},
annote = {Landfalling atmospheric rivers associated with 40-75{\%} of extreme wind and precipitation events over 40{\%} of the world's coastlines.},
author = {Waliser, Duane and Guan, Bin},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2894},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {179--183},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Extreme winds and precipitation during landfall of atmospheric rivers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038{\%}2Fngeo2894},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Walsh1981,
abstract = {Rainfall seasonality is clearly crucial to the hydrological, geomorphological, erosional, biological, ecological and agricultural impacts of a given annual precipitation total. However, meaningful comparisons of rainfall seasonality across space, or through time at single locations, can only be made if there is some quantification of this aspect of rainfall regimes. Many contemporary climate sources still only describe rainfall regimes and seasonality in qualitative terms. In this paper, a simple Seasonality Index (SI), designed to assess a key aspect of rainfall seasonality, is derived from monthly data and presented. Low seasonality areas attract SI values close to zero. Stations marked by extreme seasonality, with rainfall in 1-2 months only, return SI values at and above 1. It is shown by applications of this index across the world, including for the UK and Ireland (109 rainfall stations), Africa (224 stations) and also in central and South America and the Pacific, that it is possible quickly to analyse, categorise and plot spatial variations in rainfall seasonality (as for other climate variables) at local, national or continental scales. Such analyses can also help in pure or applied research to predict or interpret patterns of variables which may respond to rainfall seasonality specifically (e.g. river discharge; plant growth; crop yield and quality; habitats). RESULTS. Results for the UK show clear increases in rainfall seasonality towards the west and north of the country, and is strongly linked to absolute annual rainfall totals. The same positive relation between average annual precipitation and seasonality occurs for Ireland, with low rainfall seasonality in the east around Dublin, and clear increases in SI towards the west. In Guyana, however, the relationship between annual rainfall and rainfall seasonality is shown to be inverse. Africa returns high rainfall seasonality values in the North, low scores in tropical regions, before they rise again to moderate levels in southern areas. Another area of novelty in the paper, which adds a new dimension to global climate change research, is the analysis of CHANGE OVER TIME IN RAINFALL SEASONALITY, with respect to (a) the variability of the seasonal incidence of rainfall from year to year, and (b) long-term change and cyclicity in rainfall seasonality. Examples are discussed for Georgetown (Guyana) over an 80-year period.},
author = {Walsh, R.P.D. and Lawler, D.M.},
doi = {10.1002/j.1477-8696.1981.tb05400.x},
isbn = {00431656},
issn = {00431656},
journal = {Weather},
number = {7},
pages = {201--208},
title = {{Rainfall seasonality: description, spatial patterns and change through time (British Isles, Africa)}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1981.tb05400.x},
volume = {36},
year = {1981}
}
@article{Walsh2015,
abstract = {This article describes a unique field experiment on Severe Thunderstorms Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) jointly undertaken by eight South Asian countries. Several pilot field experiments have been conducted so far, and the results are analyzed. The field experiments will continue through 2016. The STORM programme was originally conceived for understanding the Severe Thunderstorms known as Nor'westers that affect West Bengal and the Northeastern parts of India during the pre- monsoon season. The Nor'westers cause loss of human lives and damage to properties worth millions of Dollars annually. Since the neighbouring south Asian countries are also affected by thunderstorms, the STORM programme is expanded to cover the South Asian countries under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). It covers all the SAARC countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) in 3 phases. Some of the science plans, viz., monitoring life cycle of Nor'westers/ severe thunderstorms, their three dimensional structure, to understand the interrelationship among dynamics, cloud microphysics and electrical properties in the thunderstorm environment are new to the severe weather research. This paper describes the general setting of the field experiment and discusses preliminary results based on the pilot field data. Typical lengths of the squall lines, 2 their intensity, and speed of movements, cloud top temperatures, and their heights are discussed based on the pilot field data. The SAARC STORM programme will complement the Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) of WMO. It would also generate large-scale interest for fuelling research among the scientific community, and broaden the perspectives of operational meteorologists and researchers.},
author = {Walsh, Kevin J.E. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Daloz, Anne Sophie and Elsner, James and Emanuel, Kerry and Horn, Michael and Lim, Young Kwon and Roberts, Malcolm and Patricola, Christina and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Sobel, Adam H. and Strazzo, Sarah and Villarini, Gabriele and Wehner, Michael and Zhao, Ming and Kossin, James P. and {La Row}, Tim and Oouchi, Kazuyoshi and Schubert, Siegfried and Wang, Hui and Bacmeister, Julio and Chang, Ping and Chauvin, Fabrice and Jablonowski, Christiane and Kumar, Arun and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Ose, Tomoaki and Reed, Kevin A. and Saravanan, Ramalingam and Yamada, Yohei and Zarzycki, Colin M. and {Luigi Vidale}, Pier and Jonas, Jeffrey A. and Henderson, Naomi},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00242.1},
isbn = {6038621628},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {6},
pages = {997--1017},
title = {{Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes}},
volume = {96},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Walters2017,
author = {Walters, David and Baran, Anthony J. and Boutle, Ian and Brooks, Malcolm and Earnshaw, Paul and Edwards, John and Furtado, Kalli and Hill, Peter and Lock, Adrian and Manners, James and Morcrette, Cyril and Mulcahy, Jane and Sanchez, Claudio and Smith, Chris and Stratton, Rachel and Tennant, Warren and Tomassini, Lorenzo and {Van Weverberg}, Kwinten and Vosper, Simon and Willett, Martin and Browse, Jo and Bushell, Andrew and Carslaw, Kenneth and Dalvi, Mohit and Essery, Richard and Gedney, Nicola and Hardiman, Steven and Johnson, Ben and Johnson, Colin and Jones, Andy and Jones, Colin and Mann, Graham and Milton, Sean and Rumbold, Heather and Sellar, Alistair and Ujiie, Masashi and Whitall, Michael and Williams, Keith and Zerroukat, Mohamed},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {1909--1963},
title = {{The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/1909/2019/},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Walvoord2016a,
abstract = {Where present, permafrost exerts a primary control on water fluxes, flowpaths, and distribution. Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change are expected to modify the distribution of permafrost, leading to changing hydrologic conditions, including alterations in soil moisture, connectivity of inland waters, streamflow seasonality, and the partitioning of water stored above and below ground. The field of permafrost hydrology is undergoing rapid advancement with respect to multiscale observations, subsurface characterization, modeling, and integration with other disciplines. However, gaining predictive capability of the many interrelated consequences of climate change is a persistent challenge due to several factors. Observations of hydrologic change have been causally linked to permafrost thaw, but applications of process-based models needed to support and enhance the transferability of empirical linkages have often been restricted to generalized representations. Limitations stem from inadequate baseline permafrost and unfrozen hydrogeologic characterization, lack of historical data, and simplifications in structure and process representation needed to counter the high computational demands of cryohydrogeologic simulations. Further, due in part to the large degree of subsurface heterogeneity of permafrost landscapes and the nonuniformity in thaw patterns and rates, associations between various modes of permafrost thaw and hydrologic change are not readily scalable; even trajectories of change can differ. This review highlights promising advances in characterization and modeling of permafrost regions and presents ongoing research challenges toward projecting hydrologic and ecologic consequences of permafrost thaw at time and spatial scales that are useful to managers and researchers.},
author = {Walvoord, Michelle A. and Kurylyk, Barret L.},
doi = {10.2136/vzj2016.01.0010},
isbn = {0034-4257},
issn = {1539-1663},
journal = {Vadose Zone Journal},
number = {6},
pages = {1--20},
pmid = {23836794},
title = {{Hydrologic Impacts of Thawing Permafrost – A Review}},
volume = {15},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wang2013a,
author = {Wang, Yuan and Khalizov, Alexei and Levy, Misti and Zhang, Renyi},
doi = {10.1016/J.ATMOSENV.2013.09.034},
issn = {1352-2310},
journal = {Atmospheric Environment},
month = {dec},
pages = {713--715},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{New Directions: Light absorbing aerosols and their atmospheric impacts}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S135223101300722X?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {81},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Wang2016d,
author = {Wang, Zhili and Zhang, Hua and Zhang, Xiaoye},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2912-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1455--1468},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Projected response of East Asian summer monsoon system to future reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2912-7},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wang2018f,
abstract = {Lake evaporation is a sensitive indicator of the hydrological response to climate change. Variability in annual lake evaporation has been assumed to be controlled primarily by the incoming surface solar radiation. Here we report simulations with a numerical model of lake surface fluxes, with input data based on a high-emissions climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). In our simulations, the global annual lake evaporation increases by 16{\%} by the end of the century, despite little change in incoming solar radiation at the surface. We attribute about half of this projected increase to two effects: periods of ice cover are shorter in a warmer climate and the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux decreases, thus channelling more energy into evaporation. At low latitudes, annual lake evaporation is further enhanced because the lake surface warms more slowly than the air, leading to more long-wave radiation energy available for evaporation. We suggest that an analogous change in the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes in the open ocean can help to explain some of the spread among climate models in terms of their sensitivity of precipitation to warming. We conclude that an accurate prediction of the energy balance at the Earth's surface is crucial for evaluating the hydrological response to climate change.},
annote = {Evaporation from lakes is expected to increase due to reduced ice cover and reduced longwave radiation loss due to slower surface warming than surrounding land.},
author = {Wang, Wei and Lee, Xuhui and Xiao, Wei and Liu, Shoudong and Schultz, Natalie and Wang, Yongwei and Zhang, Mi and Zhao, Lei},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-018-0114-8},
isbn = {4156101801148},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {6},
pages = {410--414},
title = {{Global lake evaporation accelerated by changes in surface energy allocation in a warmer climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0114-8},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wang2017b,
abstract = {The present paper addresses driving mechanisms of global monsoon (GM) variability and outstanding issues in GM science. This is the second synthesis of the PAGES GM Working Group following the first synthesis “The Global Monsoon across Time Scales: coherent variability of regional monsoons” published in 2014 (Climate of the Past, 10, 2007–2052). Here we introduce the GM as a planetary scale circulation system and give a brief accounting of why it exhibits regional structure. The primary driver of the GM is solar insolation, and the specific features in the underlying surface, such as land-sea distribution, topography, and oceanic circulations, are mainly responsible for the differences among regional monsoon systems. We then analyze the monsoon formation mechanisms, together with the major processes that drive monsoon variations at various timescales, including external forcings and internal feedbacks. On long time scales, external forcings often induce variability on a global scale, whereas short-term variability in regional monsoon systems is usually caused by internal feedbacks within the climate system. Finally, a number of debatable issues are discussed, with an emphasis on time scales beyond the instrumental record. These include the dual nature of the monsoon as wind and rain, the meaning of oxygen isotope in hydrological cycle, in particular of speleothem $\delta$18O, the role of ice-sheet in monsoon variations, etc. In general, the GM as a system comprises a hierarchy of regional and local monsoons with various degrees of similarity, though all show coherent variability driven by a common solar forcing. The goal of the GM concept, therefore, is by no means to replace or diminish research on the regional monsoons, but to help dissect the mechanisms and controlling factors of monsoon variability at various temporal-spatial scales.},
author = {Wang, Pin Xian and Wang, Bin and Cheng, Hai and Fasullo, John and Guo, ZhengTang and Kiefer, Thorsten and Liu, ZhengYu},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.006},
issn = {00128252},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
keywords = {Climate variability,Hydrological cycle,Monsoon,Monsoon mechanism,Precipitation,Solar insolation},
month = {nov},
pages = {84--121},
title = {{The global monsoon across time scales: Mechanisms and outstanding issues}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012825216302070},
volume = {174},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wang2017,
abstract = {An interdecadal weakening in the North Atlantic storm track (NAST) and a poleward shift of the North Pacific storm track (NPST) are found during October–March for the period 1979–2015. A significant warming of surface air temperature (Ts) over northeastern North America and a La Ni{\~{n}}a–like change in the North Pacific under the background of Arctic amplification are found to be the contributors to the observed changes in the NAST and the NPST, respectively, via modulation of local baroclinicity. The interdecadal change in baroclinic energy conversion is consistent with changes in storm tracks with an energy loss from eddies to mean flow over the North Atlantic and an energy gain over the North Pacific. The analysis of simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project, although with some biases in storm-track and Ts simulations, supports the observed relationship between the NAST and Ts over northeastern North America, as well as the link between the NPST and El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation. The near-future projections of Ts and storm tracks are characterized by a warmer planet under the influence of increasing greenhouse gases and a significant weakening of both the NAST and the NPST. The potential role of the NAST in redistributing changes in Ts over the surrounding regions is also examined. The anomalous equatorward moisture flux associated with the weakening trend of the NAST would enhance the warming over its upstream region and hinder the warming over its downstream region via modulation of the downward infrared radiation.},
author = {Wang, Jiabao and Kim, Hye-Mi and Chang, Edmund K. M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0650.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {3705--3724},
title = {{Changes in Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks under the Background of Arctic Amplification}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0650.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wang2013e,
abstract = {Abstract. Observation shows that eastern China experienced an interdecadal shift in the summer precipitation during the second half of the 20th century. The summer precipitation increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, whereas it decreased in northern China. Here we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model and multi-ensemble simulations to show that the interdecadal shift is mainly caused by the anthropogenic forcing. The rapidly increasing greenhouse gases induce a notable Indian Ocean warming, causing a westward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a southward displacement of the East Asia westerly jet (EAJ) on an interdecadal timescale, leading to more precipitation in Yangtze River valley. At the same time the surface cooling effects from the stronger convection, higher precipitation and rapidly increasing anthropogenic aerosols contribute to a reduced summer land–sea thermal contrast. Due to the changes in the WPSH, the EAJ and the land–sea thermal contrast, the East Asian summer monsoon weakened resulting in drought in northern China. Consequently, an anomalous precipitation pattern started to emerge over eastern China in the late 1970s. According to the model, the natural forcing played an opposite role in regulating the changes in WPSH and EAJ, and postponed the anthropogenically forced climate changes in eastern China. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature is crucial to the response, and acts as a bridge to link the external forcings and East Asian summer climate together on a decadal and longer timescales. Our results further highlight the dominant roles of anthropogenic forcing agents in shaping interdecadal changes of the East Asian climate during the second half of the 20th century.},
author = {Wang, T. and Wang, H. J. and Otter{\aa}, O. H. and Gao, Y. Q. and Suo, L. L. and Furevik, T. and Yu, L.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-13-12433-2013},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {12433--12450},
title = {{Anthropogenic agent implicated as a prime driver of shift in precipitation in eastern China in the late 1970s}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/12433/2013/},
volume = {13},
year = {2013}
}
@article{wzykg18,
author = {Wang, S-Y Simon and Zhao, Lin and Yoon, Jin-Ho and Klotzbach, Phil and Gillies, Robert R},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabb85},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {054014},
title = {{Quantitative attribution of climate effects on Hurricane Harvey's extreme rainfall in Texas}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aabb85},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wang2013c,
abstract = {The Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric stationary wave amplitude increased significantly in late spring and early summer during the last two decades of the twentieth century. A suite of chemistry climate model simulations are examined to explore the underlying cause and the separate effects of anthropogenic forcing from ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the past and projected SH stationary wave evolution. The model simulations produce trends in the wave amplitude similar to that ob- served, although somewhat weaker. In simulations with changing ODSs, this increase in amplitude is reproduced during the ozone depletion period and is reversed during the ozone recovery period. This re- sponse is related to changes in the strength and timing of the breakdown of the SH polar vortex associated with ozone depletion and recovery. GHG increases have little impact on the simulated stratospheric sta- tionary wave amplitude but are projected to induce an eastward phase shift of the waves. This phase shift is linked to the strengthening of the subtropical jets driven by GHG forcing via sea surface warming.},
author = {Wang, Lei and Kushner, Paul J. and Waugh, Darryn W.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00160.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {24},
pages = {10205--10217},
title = {{Southern hemisphere stationary wave response to changes of ozone and greenhouse gases}},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Wang2018m,
abstract = {Abstract. The effect of aerosols on lightning has been noted in many case studies, but much less is known about the long-term impact, relative importance of dynamics–thermodynamics versus aerosol, and any difference by different types of aerosols. Attempts are made to tackle all these factors, whose distinct roles are discovered by analyzing 11-year datasets of lightning, aerosol loading and composition, and dynamic–thermodynamic data from satellite and model reanalysis. Variations in the lightning rate are analyzed with respect to changes in dynamic–thermodynamic variables and indices such as the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and vertical wind shear. In general, lightning has strong diurnal and seasonal variations, peaking in the afternoon and during the summer. The lightning flash rate is much higher in moist central Africa than in dry northern Africa presumably because of the combined influences of surface heating, CAPE, relative humidity (RH), and aerosol type. In both regions, the lightning flash rate changes with aerosol optical depth (AOD) in a boomerang shape: first increasing with AOD, tailing off around AOD = 0.3, and then behaving differently, i.e., decreasing for dust and flattening for smoke aerosols. The deviation is arguably caused by the tangled influences of different thermodynamics (in particular humidity and CAPE) and aerosol type between the two regions. In northern Africa, the two branches of the opposite trends seem to echo the different dominant influences of the aerosol microphysical effect and the aerosol radiative effect that are more pronounced under low and high aerosol loading conditions, respectively. Under low-AOD conditions, the aerosol microphysical effect more likely invigorates deep convection. This may gradually yield to the suppression effect as AOD increases, leading to more and smaller cloud droplets that are highly susceptible to evaporation under the dry conditions of northern Africa. For smoke aerosols in moist central Africa, the aerosol invigoration effect can be sustained across the entire range of AOD by the high humidity and CAPE. This, plus a potential heating effect of the smoke layer, jointly offsets the suppression of convection due to the radiative cooling at the surface by smoke aerosols. Various analyses were done that tend to support this hypothesis.},
author = {Wang, Qianqian and Li, Zhanqing and Guo, Jianping and Zhao, Chuanfeng and Cribb, Maureen},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-12797-2018},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {12797--12816},
title = {{The climate impact of aerosols on the lightning flash rate: is it detectable from long-term measurements?}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/12797/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wang2020b,
abstract = {The destruction of the Aral Sea area constitutes one of the world's most infamous ecological disaster. However, the retreat of the Aral Sea has slowed down in recent years and the underlying reasons are not reported. In this work, based on the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method and the multiple linear regression model, we analyzed the changing of the Aral Sea from 1960 to 2018, and detected the time for slowdown of retreat, then explored the driving forces. The results show that the Aral Sea retreated rapidly from 1960 to 2004, and the shrinking rates of water surface area, water volume and water level were 1087.00 km2/year, 25.07 km3/year, and 0.56 m/year, respectively; the retreat has slowed since 2005, with the shrinking rates being 760.00 km2/year, 2.86 km3/year, and 0.38 m/year, respectively. At the same time, the area of water bodies surrounding the Aral Sea increased due to the agricultural drainage water. The oscillation periods of water level in the Aral Sea are 2.1a, 7.6a and 29.5a, of which 29.5a is the main period of oscillation. The trend residual RES indicates that water level shows a non-linear downward trend, and the degree of fluctuation has decreased significantly after 2005. The impact of human activities on the Aral Sea is more significant than that of climate change. Overall, the increased upstream runoff, reduced water withdrawal, and rise in water delivery to the Aral Sea has led to a slowing down of the sea's notorious shrinkage. The findings provide a scientific reference for the management and protection of the Aral Sea.},
author = {Wang, Xuanxuan and Chen, Yaning and Li, Zhi and Fang, Gonghuan and Wang, Fei and Liu, Haijun},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105125},
issn = {0169-8095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Dynamic change,Land cover,Runoff,Water withdrawal},
pages = {105125},
title = {{The impact of climate change and human activities on the Aral Sea Basin over the past 50 years}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809520310619},
volume = {245},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wang2015,
abstract = {In this study, a higher-order turbulence closure scheme, called Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB), is implemented into a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) model to improve low-cloud simulations. The performance of CLUBB in MMF simulations with two different microphysics configurations (one-moment cloud microphysics without aerosol treatment and two-moment cloud microphysics coupled with aerosol treatment) is evaluated against observations and further compared with results from the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 5 (CAM5) with conventional cloud parameterizations. CLUBB is found to improve low-cloud simulations in the MMF, and the improvement is particularly evident in the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition regions. Compared to the single-moment cloud microphysics, CLUBB with two-moment microphysics produces clouds that are closer to the coast and agrees better with observations. In the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition regions, CLUBB with two-moment cloud microphysics produces short-wave cloud forcing in better agreement with observations, while CLUBB with single-moment cloud microphysics overestimates short-wave cloud forcing. CLUBB is further found to produce quantitatively similar improvements in the MMF and CAM5, with slightly better performance in the MMF simulations (e.g., MMF with CLUBB generally produces low clouds that are closer to the coast than CAM5 with CLUBB). Improved low-cloud simulations in MMF make it an even more attractive tool for studying aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. Key Points: A higher-order closure is implemented in SPCAM5 CLUBB performs better in two-moment microphysics than in one-moment microphysics CLUBB produces quantitatively similar improvements in the MMF and CAM5},
author = {Wang, Minghuai and Larson, Vincent E. and Ghan, Steven and Ovchinnikov, Mikhail and Schanen, David P. and Xiao, Heng and Liu, Xiaohong and Rasch, Philip and Guo, Zhun},
doi = {10.1002/2014MS000375},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {484--509},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{A multiscale modeling framework model (superparameterized CAM5) with a higher-order turbulence closure: Model description and low‐cloud simulations}},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Wang2013f,
abstract = {An objective cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) 6-hourly mean sea level pressure fields for the period 1871-2010 to infer historical trends and variability in extra-tropical cyclone activity. The tracking algorithm is applied both to the ensemble-mean analyses and to each of the 56 ensemble members individually. The ensemble-mean analyses are found to be unsuitable for accurately determining cyclone statistics. However, pooled cyclone statistics obtained by averaging statistics from individual members generally agree well with statistics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses for 1951-2010, although 20CR shows somewhat weaker cyclone activity over land and stronger activity over oceans. Both reanalyses show similar cyclone trend patterns in the northern hemisphere (NH) over 1951-2010. Homogenized pooled cyclone statistics are analyzed for trends and variability. Conclusions account for identified inhomogeneities, which occurred before 1949 in the NH and between 1951 and 1985 in the southern hemisphere (SH). Cyclone activity is estimated to have increased slightly over the period 1871-2010 in the NH. More substantial increases are seen in the SH. Notable regional and seasonal variations in trends are evident, as is profound decadal or longer scale variability. For example, the NH increases occur mainly in the mid-latitude Pacific and high-latitude Atlantic regions. For the North Atlantic-European region and southeast Australia, the 20CR cyclone trends are in agreement with trends in geostrophic wind extremes derived from in-situ surface pressure observations. European trends are also consistent with trends in the mean duration of wet spells derived from rain gauge data in Europe.},
author = {Wang, Xiaolan L. and Feng, Y. and Compo, G. P. and Swail, V. R. and Zwiers, F. W. and Allan, R. J. and Sardeshmukh, P. D.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1450-9},
isbn = {0930-7575},
issn = {09307575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {11-12},
pages = {2775--2800},
title = {{Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis}},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Wang2018o,
abstract = {Amazonian rainfall plays a critical role in the global climate system and the hydrological cycle. It is thus important to quantify changes in the Amazonian rainfall and clarify its mechanism. Previous studies indicate that the interannual variability of Amazonian precipitation could be largely attributed to variabilities in the South American monsoon system and the El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation. However, the trend of the wet season tropical Amazonian precipitation during recent decades is not very well investigated. In this study, by combining both satellite and in situ observations, it is revealed that tropical Amazonian precipitation has significantly increased by ∼180 to 600 mm (in different datasets) in the wet season during the satellite era from 1979 to 2015. We then use a state-of-the-art atmospheric model to simulate the impact of the tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the precipitation changes. Results show that the multidecadal warming of the tropical Atlantic has contributed more than half of this precipitation change over the past three decades, while the east Pacific cooling plays a secondary role. We finally combine the simulation results and the reanalysis data to investigate the mechanisms of this process, i.e. the SST variability dramatically increases the convergence of the moisture transport over the Amazon region. The precipitation changes over the Amazon region largely impact on the local hydrological cycle and the ecosystem, and have important impacts on the global climate system by mediating the teleconnection between the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans. Our results show that the long-term change in the wet season Amazonian precipitation is important and deserves further investigation and discussion.},
author = {Wang, Xin Yue and Li, Xichen and Zhu, Jiang and Tanajura, Clemente A.S.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aadbb9},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {convective moisture convergence,tropical Atlantic},
number = {9},
pages = {94015},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{The strengthening of Amazonian precipitation during the wet season driven by tropical sea surface temperature forcing}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aadbb9},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wang2020a,
abstract = {Long-term winter and summer Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) trends in the past 138 years (1871–2008) were examined using National Oceanic and Atmo- spheric Administration (NOAA) 20th Century Reanalysis V2c dataset. It is found that MJO shows a distinctive different trend between boreal winter and summer. While the MJO intensity in both boreal winter and summ er has a ris- ing trend, the winter trend is much greater than the summer trend. As a result, the winter–summer difference shows a significant increasing trend. The dis- tinctive winter and summer trends are attributed to the difference of atmo- spheric background circulation (such as vertical velocity) and static stability responses to the global warming between boreal winter and summer over equatorial eastern Indian Ocean. In boreal winter, both the surface moistening and strengthened inter-tropical convergence zone convection contribute to an increase of MJO activity. This is in contrast to boreal summer when a greater static stability and anomalous subsidence tend to offset the moistening effect, leading to a relatively weaker increase of the MJO activity.},
author = {Wang, Ziyue and Li, Tim and Gao, Jianyun and Peng, Melinda},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6586},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {dec},
number = {15},
pages = {6369--6381},
title = {{Enhanced winter and summer trend difference of Madden–Julian Oscillation intensity since 1871}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.6586 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6586},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wang2018c,
author = {Wang, Ziqian and Yang, Song and Lau, Ngar-Cheung and Duan, Anmin},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0413.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6433--6444},
title = {{Teleconnection between Summer NAO and East China Rainfall Variations: A Bridge Effect of the Tibetan Plateau}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0413.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0993.1,
abstract = {Projecting future change of monsoon rainfall is essential for water resource management, food security, disaster mitigation, and infrastructure planning. Here we assess the future change and explore the causes of the changes using 15 models that participated in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multimodel ensemble projects that, under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, the total land monsoon rainfall will likely increase in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) by about 2.8$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} per one degree Celsius of global warming (2.8$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} °C−1) in contrast to little change in the Southern Hemisphere (SH; −0.3$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} °C−1). In addition, in the future the Asian–northern African monsoon likely becomes wetter while the North American monsoon becomes drier. Since the humidity increase is nearly uniform in all summer monsoon regions, the dynamic processes must play a fundamental role in shaping the spatial patterns of the global monsoon changes. Greenhouse gas (GHG) radiative forcing induces a “NH-warmer-than-SH” pattern, which favors increasing the NH monsoon rainfall and prolonging the NH monsoon rainy season while reducing the SH monsoon rainfall and shortening the SH monsoon rainy season. The GHG forcing induces a “land-warmer-than-ocean” pattern, which enhances Asian monsoon low pressure and increases Asian and northern African monsoon rainfall, and an El Ni{\~{n}}o–like warming, which reduces North American monsoon rainfall. The uncertainties in the projected monsoon precipitation changes are significantly related to the models' projected hemispheric and land–ocean thermal contrasts as well as to the eastern Pacific Ocean warming. The CMIP6 models' common biases and the processes by which convective heating drives monsoon circulation are also discussed.},
author = {Wang, Bin and Jin, Chunhan and Liu, Jian},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0993.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {15},
pages = {6471--6489},
title = {{Understanding Future Change of Global Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0993.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wang2018s,
abstract = {Realistic simulations of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by global climate models (GCMs) remain agreat challenge. To evaluate GCM simulations of the MJO, the U.S. CLIVAR MJO Working Groupdeveloped a standardized set of diagnostics, providing a comprehensive assessment of statistical properties ofthe MJO. Here, a suite of complementary diagnostics has been developed that provides discrimination andassessment of MJO simulations based on the perception that the MJO propagation has characteristic dynamicand thermodynamic structures. The new dynamics-oriented diagnostics help to evaluate whether a modelproduces eastward-propagating MJOs for the right reasons. The diagnostics include 1) the horizontal struc-ture of boundary layer moisture convergence (BLMC) that moistens the lower troposphere to the east of aconvection center, 2) the preluding eastward propagation of BLMC that leads the propagation of MJOprecipitation by about 5 days, 3) the horizontal structure of 850-hPa zonal wind and its equatorial asymmetry(Kelvin easterly versus Rossby westerly intensity), 4) the equatorial vertical–longitudinal structure of theequivalent potential temperature and convective instability index that reflects the premoistening and pre-destabilization processes, 5) the equatorial vertical–longitudinal distribution of diabatic heating that reflectsthe multicloud structure of the MJO, 6) the upper-level divergence that reflects the influence of stratiformcloud heating, and 7) the MJO available potential energy generation that reflects the amplification andpropagation of an MJO. The models that simulate better three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamicstructures of MJOs generally reproduce better eastward propagations. This evaluation identifies a number ofshortcomings in representing dynamical and heating processes relevant to the MJO simulation and revealspotential sources of the shortcomings.},
author = {Wang, Bin and Lee, Sun-Seon and Waliser, Duane E. and Zhang, Chidong and Sobel, Adam and Maloney, Eric and Li, Tim and Jiang, Xianan and Ha, Kyung-Ja},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0332.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {8},
pages = {3117--3135},
title = {{Dynamics-oriented diagnostics for the Madden–Julian Oscillation}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0332.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0332.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wang2017c,
abstract = {For many generations, models simulate an Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) that is overly large in amplitude. The possible impact of this systematic bias on climate projections, including a projected frequency increase in extreme positive IOD (pIOD) using a rainfall-based definition, has attracted attention. In particular, a recent study suggests that the increased frequency is an artifact of the overly large IOD amplitude. In contrast, here the opposite is found. Through intermodel ensemble regressions, the present study shows that models producing a high frequency in the present-day climate generate a small future frequency increase. The frequency is associated with the mean equatorial west-minus-east sea surface temperature (SST) gradient: the greater the gradient, the greater the frequency because it is easier to shift convection to the west, which characterizes an extreme pIOD. A greater present-day gradient is associated with a present-day shallower thermocline, lower SSTs, and lower rainfall in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO). Because there is an inherent limit for a maximum rainfall reduction and for the impact on surface cooling by a shallowing of an already shallow mean EEIO thermocline, there is a smaller increase in frequency in models with a shallower present-day EEIO thermocline. Given that a bias of overly shallow EEIO thermocline and overly low EEIO SSTs and rainfall is common in models, the future frequency increase should be underestimated, opposite to an implied overestimation resulting from the overly large IOD amplitude bias. Therefore, correcting the projected frequency from a single bias, without considering other biases that are present, is not appropriate and should be avoided.},
author = {Wang, Guojian and Cai, Wenju and Santoso, Agus},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0509.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2757--2767},
title = {{Assessing the Impact of Model Biases on the Projected Increase in Frequency of Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Events}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0509.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wang2014,
abstract = {Anthropogenic influence, due to greenhouse gases and aerosols, on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones is not well known. In this study, aerosols are shown to delay development, weaken intensity and cause early dissipation of storms, but also to increase precipitation across an enlarged rainband.},
author = {Wang, Yuan and Lee, Keun-Hee and Lin, Yun and Levy, Misti and Zhang, Renyi},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2144},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {368--373},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Distinct effects of anthropogenic aerosols on tropical cyclones}},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Wang2021,
abstract = {Monsoon rainfall has profound economic and societal impacts for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here we provide a review on past monsoon changes and their primary drivers, the projected future changes, and key physical processes, and discuss challenges of the present and future modeling and outlooks. Continued global warming and urbanization over the past century has already caused a significant rise in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in all monsoon regions (high confidence). Observed changes in the mean monsoon rainfall vary by region with significant decadal variations. Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall as a whole declined from 1950 to 1980 and rebounded after the 1980s, due to the competing influences of internal climate variability and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing (high confidence); however, it remains a challenge to quantify their relative contributions. The CMIP6 models simulate better global monsoon intensity and precipitation over CMIP5 models, but common biases and large intermodal spreads persist. Nevertheless, there is high confidence that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extreme rainfall events will increase, alongside an increasing risk of drought over some regions. Also, land monsoon rainfall will increase in South Asia and East Asia (high confidence) and northern Africa (medium confidence), decrease in North America, and be unchanged in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the rainfall variability is projected to increase on daily to decadal scales. The rainy season will likely be lengthened in the Northern Hemisphere due to late retreat (especially over East Asia), but shortened in the Southern Hemisphere due to delayed onset.},
author = {Wang, Bin and Biasutti, Michela and Byrne, Michael P. and Castro, Christopher and Chang, Chih-Pei and Cook, Kerry and Fu, Rong and Grimm, Alice M. and Ha, Kyung-Ja and Hendon, Harry and Kitoh, Akio and Krishnan, R. and Lee, June-Yi and Li, Jianping and Liu, Jian and Moise, Aurel and Pascale, Salvatore and Roxy, M. K. and Seth, Anji and Sui, Chung-Hsiung and Turner, Andrew and Yang, Song and Yun, Kyung-Sook and Zhang, Lixia and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0335.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {E1--E19},
title = {{Monsoons Climate Change Assessment}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/1/BAMS-D-19-0335.1.xml},
volume = {102},
year = {2021}
}
@misc{Wang2016,
abstract = {This study inter-compares extratropical cyclone activity in the following nine reanalysis datasets: the ERA-20C Reanalysis (ERA20C), the Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2c (20CR), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA55), the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the ERA-Interim Reanalysis (ERAint), the ERA40 Reanalysis, the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP1), and the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis (NCEP2). The inter-comparison is based on cyclones identified using an objective cyclone tracking algorithm. In general, reanalyses of higher horizontal resolutions show higher cyclone counts, with MERRA and 20CR showing the highest and lowest mean counts of all-cyclones, respectively. However, MERRA shows the highest mean intensity (i.e., geostrophic winds) of all-cyclones, and CFSR the lowest, although MERRA and CFSR share a similar horizontal resolution. MERRA is most different from the other datasets, showing many more cyclones of shallow-medium core pressures and much higher counts of cyclones of strong intensity than the others, while CFSR shows many more cyclones of moderate intensity than the others. MERRA cyclones tend to have weaker surface winds but stronger geostrophic winds than the corresponding CFSR cyclones. The track-to-track agreement between the datasets is better for moderate-deep cyclones than for shallow ones, better in the NH than in the SH, and better in winter than in summer in both hemispheres. There is more similarity in temporal trends and variability than in specific cyclone counts and intensity, and more similarity in deep-cyclone (core pressure ≤ 980 hPa) statistics than in all-cyclone statistics. In particular, all the four datasets that cover the period from 1958 to 2010 agree well in terms of trend direction and interannual variability in hemispheric counts of deep-cyclones, showing a general increase in both hemispheres over the past half century, although the magnitude of increase varies notably from dataset to dataset. The agreement in trends of deep-cyclone counts is generally better in winter than in summer, and better in the NH than in the SH, with nearly perfect agreement for the counts of NH winter deep-cyclones. However, the nine datasets do not agree well in terms of trend and interannual variability in the mean intensity of deep cyclones, especially in summer and in SH winter. The temporal homogeneity of cyclone statistics in each dataset wa{\ldots}},
author = {Wang, Xiaolan L. and Feng, Yang and Chan, Rodney and Isaac, Victor},
booktitle = {Atmospheric Research},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.06.010},
isbn = {0169-8095},
issn = {01698095},
keywords = {Cyclone trends and variability,Data homogeneity,Extra-tropical cyclones,Objective cyclone identification and tracking,Reanalysis data},
month = {nov},
pages = {133--153},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Inter-comparison of extra-tropical cyclone activity in nine reanalysis datasets}},
volume = {181},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wang2020d,
abstract = {We propose a set of MJO teleconnection diagnostics that enables an objective evaluation of model simulations, a fair model-to-model comparison, and a consistent tracking of model improvement. Various skill metrics are derived from teleconnection diagnostics including five performance-based metrics that characterize the pattern, amplitude, east–west position, persistence, and consistency of MJO teleconnections and additional two process-oriented metrics that are designed to characterize the location and intensity of the anomalous Rossby wave source (RWS). The proposed teleconnection skill metrics are used to compare the characteristics of boreal winter MJO teleconnections (500-hPa geopotential height anomaly) over the Pacific–North America (PNA) region in 29 global climate models (GCMs). The results show that current GCMs generally produce MJO teleconnections that are stronger, more persistent, and extend too far to the east when compared to those observed in reanalysis. In general, models simulate more realistic teleconnection patterns when the MJO is in phases 2–3 or phases 7–8, which are characterized by a dipole convection pattern over the Indian Ocean and western to central Pacific. The higher model skill for phases 2, 7, and 8 may be due to these phases producing more consistent teleconnection patterns between individual MJO events than other phases, although the consistency is lower in most models than observed. Models that simulate realistic RWS patterns better reproduce MJO teleconnection patterns.},
author = {Wang, Jiabao and Kim, Hyemi and Kim, Daehyun and Henderson, Stephanie A. and Stan, Cristiana and Maloney, Eric D.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0253.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1051--1067},
title = {{MJO Teleconnections over the PNA Region in Climate Models. Part I: Performance- and Process-Based Skill Metrics}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0253.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wang2016e,
author = {Wang, Libo and Cole, Jason N S and Bartlett, Paul and Verseghy, Diana and Derksen, Chris and Brown, Ross and Salzen, Knut},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD023824},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1104--1119},
title = {{Investigating the spread in surface albedo for snow‐covered forests in CMIP5 models}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD023824},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wang-Erlandsson2018,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} The effects of land-use change on river flows have usually been explained by changes within a river basin. However, land–atmosphere feedback such as moisture recycling can link local land-use change to modifications of remote precipitation, with further knock-on effects on distant river flows. Here, we look at river flow changes caused by both land-use change and water use within the basin, as well as modifications of imported and exported atmospheric moisture. We show that in some of the world's largest basins, precipitation was influenced more strongly by land-use change occurring outside than inside the basin. Moreover, river flows in several non-transboundary basins were considerably regulated by land-use changes in foreign countries. We conclude that regional patterns of land-use change and moisture recycling are important to consider in explaining runoff change, integrating land and water management, and informing water governance.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Wang-Erlandsson, Lan and Fetzer, Ingo and Keys, Patrick W. and {Van Der Ent}, Ruud J. and Savenije, Hubert H.G. and Gordon, Line J.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-22-4311-2018},
isbn = {1607-7938},
issn = {16077938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {8},
pages = {4311--4328},
title = {{Remote land use impacts on river flows through atmospheric teleconnections}},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wang-Erlandsson2016,
abstract = {Abstract. This study presents an "Earth observation-based" method for estimating root zone storage capacity {\&}ndash; a critical, yet uncertain parameter in hydrological and land surface modelling. By assuming that vegetation optimises its root zone storage capacity to bridge critical dry periods, we were able to use state-of-the-art satellite-based evaporation data computed with independent energy balance equations to derive gridded root zone storage capacity at global scale. This approach does not require soil or vegetation information, is model independent, and is in principle scale independent. In contrast to a traditional look-up table approach, our method captures the variability in root zone storage capacity within land cover types, including in rainforests where direct measurements of root depths otherwise are scarce. Implementing the estimated root zone storage capacity in the global hydrological model STEAM (Simple Terrestrial Evaporation to Atmosphere Model) improved evaporation simulation overall, and in particular during the least evaporating months in sub-humid to humid regions with moderate to high seasonality. Our results suggest that several forest types are able to create a large storage to buffer for severe droughts (with a very long return period), in contrast to, for example, savannahs and woody savannahs (medium length return period), as well as grasslands, shrublands, and croplands (very short return period). The presented method to estimate root zone storage capacity eliminates the need for poor resolution soil and rooting depth data that form a limitation for achieving progress in the global land surface modelling community.},
author = {Wang-Erlandsson, Lan and Bastiaanssen, Wim G M and Gao, Hongkai and J{\"{a}}germeyr, Jonas and Senay, Gabriel B and van Dijk, Albert I. J. M. and Guerschman, Juan P and Keys, Patrick W and Gordon, Line J and Savenije, Hubert H G},
doi = {10.5194/hess-20-1459-2016},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1459--1481},
title = {{Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1459/2016/},
volume = {20},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ward2016a,
abstract = {The climate change and the proceeding urbanization create future health challenges. Consequently, more people around the globe will be impaired by extreme weather events, such as heat waves. This study investigates the causes for the emergence of surface urban heat islands and its change during heat waves in 70 European cities. A newly created climate class indicator, a set of meaningful landscape metrics, and two population-related parameters were applied to describe the Surface Urban Heat Island Magnitude (SUHIM) – the mean temperature increase within the urban heat island compared to its surrounding, as well as the Heat Magnitude (HM) – the extra heat load added to the average summer SUHIM during heat waves. We evaluated the relevance of varying urban parameters within linear models. The exemplary European-wide heat wave in July 2006 was chosen and compared to the average summer conditions using MODIS land surface temperature with an improved spatial resolution of 250 m. The results revealed that the initial size of the urban heat island had significant influence on SUHIM. For the explanation of HM the size of the heat island, the regional climate and the share of central urban green spaces showed to be critical. Interestingly, cities of cooler climates and cities with higher shares of urban green spaces were more affected by additional heat during heat waves. Accordingly, cooler northern European cities seem to be more vulnerable to heat waves, whereas southern European cities appear to be better adapted. Within the ascertained population and climate clusters more detailed explanations were found. Our findings improve the understanding of the urban heat island effect across European cities and its behavior under heat waves. Also, they provide some indications for urban planners on case-specific adaptation strategies to adverse urban heat caused by heat waves.},
author = {Ward, Kathrin and Lauf, Steffen and Kleinschmit, Birgit and Endlicher, Wilfried},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.119},
isbn = {00489697 (ISSN)},
issn = {18791026},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
pages = {527--539},
pmid = {27366983},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Heat waves and urban heat islands in Europe: A review of relevant drivers}},
volume = {569-570},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ward2014a,
abstract = {Abstract. Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Ni{\~{n}}a and decline with El Ni{\~{n}}o than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.},
author = {Ward, P. J. and Eisner, S. and Fl{\"{o}}rke, M. and Dettinger, M. D. and Kummu, M.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-18-47-2014},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {47--66},
title = {{Annual flood sensitivities to El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation at the global scale}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/47/2014/},
volume = {18},
year = {2014}
}
@article{wms15,
abstract = {Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with winter atmospheric river (AR) events. Global climate models have sufficient resolution to simulate synoptic features associated with AR events, such as high values of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) approaching the coast. From phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), 10 simulations are used to identify changes in ARs impacting the west coast of North America between historical (1970–99) and end-of-century (2070–99) runs, using representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The most extreme ARs are identified in both time periods by the 99th percentile of IVT days along a north–south transect offshore of the coast. Integrated water vapor (IWV) and IVT are predicted to increase, while lower-tropospheric winds change little. Winter mean precipitation along the west coast increases by 11{\%}–18{\%} [from 4{\%} to 6{\%} (°C)−1], while precipitation on extreme IVT days increases by 15{\%}–39{\%} [from 5{\%} to 19{\%} (°C)−1]. The frequency of IVT days above the historical 99th percentile threshold increases as much as 290{\%} by the end of this century.},
author = {Warner, Michael D and Mass, Clifford F and Salath{\'{e}}, Eric P},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-14-0080.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {118--128},
title = {{Changes in Winter Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 Climate Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0080.1},
volume = {16},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Warner2017,
abstract = {This paper describes changes in the climatology, structure, and seasonality of cool-season atmospheric rivers influencing the U.S. West Coast by examining the climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that are forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. There are only slight changes in atmospheric river (AR) frequency and seasonality between historical (1970–99) and future (2070–99) periods considering the most extreme days (99th percentile) in integrated water vapor transport (IVT) along the U.S. West Coast. Changes in the 99th percentile of precipitation are only significant over the southern portion of the coast. In contrast, using the number of future days exceeding the historical 99th percentile IVT threshold produces statistically significant increases in the frequency of extreme IVT events for all winter months. The peak in future AR days appears to occur approximately one month earlier. The 10-model mean historical and end-of-century composites of extreme IVT days reflect canonical AR conditions, with a plume of high IVT extending from the coast to the southwest. The similar structure and evolution associated with ARs in the historical and future periods suggest little change in large-scale structure of such events during the upcoming century. Increases in extreme IVT intensity are primarily associated with integrated water vapor increases accompanying a warming climate. Along the southern portion of the U.S. West Coast there is less model agreement regarding the structure and intensity of ARs than along the northern portions of the coast.},
author = {Warner, Michael D. and Mass, Clifford F.},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-16-0200.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {2131--2141},
title = {{Changes in the Climatology, Structure, and Seasonality of Northeast Pacific Atmospheric Rivers in CMIP5 Climate Simulations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0200.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wartenburger2017,
abstract = {Abstract. This article extends a previous study Seneviratne et al. (2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global mean temperature targets, such as the 2 and 1.5° limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.},
author = {Wartenburger, Richard and Hirschi, Martin and Donat, Markus G. and Greve, Peter and Pitman, Andy J. and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-3609-2017},
isbn = {8610828378018},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3609--3634},
title = {{Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/3609/2017/},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wasko2019a,
abstract = {Despite the expectation that increases in rainfall with climatic change will result in increases in pluvial flooding, there is more historical evidence for decreases in flood magnitude. In Australia, as in many other parts of the world, flood magnitudes are mostly decreasing, despite increasing rainfall extremes. Here, we show how changes in soil moisture have led to decreasing flood magnitudes while rainfall extremes have been increasing. Using gauged streamflow, catchment average rainfall, and modelled soil moisture data across Australia we confirm that streamflow peaks (or floods) that occur at least once a year are strongly related to both the peak rainfall causing the flood and the antecedent soil moisture conditions preceding the storm event. Regions where the magnitude of the peak flow has decreased are visually and statistically correlated to regions of decreasing soil moisture. Flood magnitudes are more likely to increase only for the rarest events, with increases in rainfall offset by decreases in soil moisture for more frequent events. A recurrence interval dependent tipping point is identified beyond which trends in catchment rainfall outweigh those of soil moisture trends and dominate the flood response. For regions where soil moisture has decreased, this tipping point occurs at an average recurrence interval of ten years or more. As most studies investigating trends in flooding generally use annual maxima, changes in soil moisture are likely to be the dominant mechanism behind observed flood trends. Hence changes in soil moisture conditions need to be considered when predicting catchment flood response due to climatic change.},
author = {Wasko, Conrad and Nathan, Rory},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.054},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Antecedent moisture conditions,Climate change,Extreme rainfall,Flooding,Soil moisture,Trend analysis},
pages = {432--441},
title = {{Influence of changes in rainfall and soil moisture on trends in flooding}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169419304998},
volume = {575},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Watanabe_2018,
abstract = {Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and hydrological sensitivity describe the global mean surface temperature and precipitation responses to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Despite their connection via the Earth's energy budget, the physical linkage between these two metrics remains controversial. Here, using a global climate model with a perturbed mean hydrological cycle, we show that ECS and hydrological sensitivity per unit warming are anti-correlated owing to the low-cloud response to surface warming. When the amount of low clouds decreases, ECS is enhanced through reductions in the reflection of shortwave radiation. In contrast, hydrological sensitivity is suppressed through weakening of atmospheric longwave cooling, necessitating weakened condensational heating by precipitation. These compensating cloud effects are also robustly found in a multi-model ensemble, and further constrained using satellite observations. Our estimates, combined with an existing constraint to clear-sky shortwave absorption, suggest that hydrological sensitivity could be lower by 30{\%} than raw estimates from global climate models.},
annote = {Equilibrium climate sensitivity and hydrological sensitivity per unit warming anti-correlated due to radiative effects related to low-cloud response and observations imply hydrological sensitivity of 2{\%}/K, 20{\%} lower than simulations},
author = {Watanabe, Masahiro and Kamae, Youichi and Shiogama, Hideo and DeAngelis, Anthony M. and Suzuki, Kentaroh},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0272-0},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric science,Climate change,Hydrology},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {901--906},
publisher = {Springer Nature America, Inc},
title = {{Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0272-0},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Watt-Meyer2019,
abstract = {AbstractThe impact of global warming-induced inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) narrowing onto the higher latitude circulation is examined in the GFDL-AM2 model run over zonally symmetric aquaplanet boundary conditions. A striking reconfiguration of the deep tropical precipitation from double-peaked, off-equatorial ascent to a single peak at the equator occurs under a globally uniform +4 K sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. This response is found to be highly sensitive to the SST profile used to force the model. By making small (≤ 1 K) perturbations to the surface temperature in the deep tropics, varying control simulation precipitation patterns with both single- and double-ITCZs are generated. Across the climatologies, narrower regions of ascent correspond to more equatorward Hadley cell edges and eddy-driven jets. Under the global warming perturbation, the experiments in which there is narrowing of the ITCZ show significantly less expansion of the Hadley cell and somewhat less poleward shif...},
author = {Watt-Meyer, Oliver and Frierson, Dargan M.W.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0434.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,General circulation models,Hadley circulation,Intertropical convergence zone,Storm tracks},
number = {4},
pages = {1151--1166},
title = {{ITCZ width controls on Hadley cell extent and eddy-driven jet position and their response to warming}},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{WattMeyer2019,
abstract = {The degree of Hadley cell expansion under global warming will have a substantial impact on changing rainfall patterns. Most previous studies have quantified changes in total tropical width, focused on the Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell or considered each hemisphere's response to a multitude of anthropogenic forcings. It is shown here that under exclusive CO2 forcing, climate models predict twice as much Hadley cell expansion in the Southern Hemisphere relative to the Northern Hemisphere. This asymmetry is present in the annual‐mean expansion and all seasons except boreal autumn. It is robust across models and Hadley cell edge definitions. It is surprising since asymmetries in simulated Hadley cell expansion are typically attributed to stratospheric ozone depletion or aerosol emission. Its primary cause is smaller sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell to static stability changes. The pattern of sea surface warming and the CO2 direct radiative effect also contribute to the asymmetry.},
author = {Watt‐Meyer, O. and Frierson, D. M. W. and Fu, Q.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083695},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {9231--9240},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},
title = {{Hemispheric Asymmetry of Tropical Expansion Under CO2 Forcing}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083695},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Weaver2012a,
abstract = {The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22{\{}{\%}{\}} (18{\{}{\%}{\}}–25{\{}{\%}{\}}; 5{\{}{\%}{\}}–95{\{}{\%}{\}} confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26{\{}{\%}{\}} (23{\{}{\%}{\}}–30{\{}{\%}{\}}) for RCP4.5, 29{\{}{\%}{\}} (23{\{}{\%}{\}}–35{\{}{\%}{\}}) for RCP6.0 and 40{\{}{\%}{\}} (36{\{}{\%}{\}}–44{\{}{\%}{\}}) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40{\{}{\%}{\}} of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.},
author = {Weaver, Andrew J. and Sedl{\'{a}}{\v{c}}ek, Jan and Eby, Michael and Alexander, Kaitlin and Crespin, Elisabeth and Fichefet, Thierry and Philippon‐Berthier, Gwena{\"{e}}lle and Joos, Fortunat and Kawamiya, Michio and Matsumoto, Katsumi and Steinacher, Marco and Tachiiri, Kaoru and Tokos, Kathy and Yoshimori, Masakazu and Zickfeld, Kirsten},
doi = {10.1029/2012GL053763},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {2012GL053763},
title = {{Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2012GL053763},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Webb2017,
abstract = {The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform fu-ture assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved un-derstanding of cloud–climate feedback mechanisms and bet-ter evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also in-creasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale pre-cipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting on-going model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hi-erarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes pri-marily to addressing the CMIP6 questions " How does the Earth system respond to forcing? " and " What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? " and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Cir-culation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate sys-tem due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO 2 , and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forc-ing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO 2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are cli-mate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the com-bination of different aspects of CO 2 forcing and sea surface warming? Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 360 M. J. Webb et al.: The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model out-puts in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions.},
author = {Webb, Mark J. and Andrews, Timothy and Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro and Bony, Sandrine and Bretherton, Christopher S. and Chadwick, Robin and Chepfer, H{\'{e}}l{\`{e}}ne and Douville, Herv{\'{e}} and Good, Peter and Kay, Jennifer E. and Klein, Stephen A. and Marchand, Roger and Medeiros, Brian and {Pier Siebesma}, A. and Skinner, Christopher B. and Stevens, Bjorn and Tselioudis, George and Tsushima, Yoko and Watanabe, Masahiro},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-359-2017},
isbn = {1991-9603},
issn = {19919603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {1},
pages = {359--384},
title = {{The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6}},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{webb2018quantifying,
author = {Webb, Nicholas P and Pierre, Caroline},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000766},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {286--295},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017EF000766},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Webb2018,
abstract = {AbstractLow-level cloud feedbacks vary in magnitude but are positive in most climate models, due to reductions in low-level cloud fraction. This study explores the impact of surface evaporation on low-level cloud fraction feedback by performing climate change experiments with the aquaplanet configuration of the HadGEM2-A climate model, forcing surface evaporation to increase at different rates in two ways. Forcing the evaporation diagnosed in the surface scheme to increase at 7{\%} K−1 with warming (more than doubling the hydrological sensitivity) results in an increase in global mean low-level cloud fraction and a negative global cloud feedback, reversing the signs of these responses compared to the standard experiments. The estimated inversion strength (EIS) increases more rapidly in these surface evaporation forced experiments, which is attributed to additional latent heat release and enhanced warming of the free troposphere. Stimulating a 7{\%} K−1 increase in surface evaporation via enhanced atmospheric ra...},
author = {Webb, Mark J. and Lock, Adrian P. and Lambert, F. Hugo},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0895.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Boundary layer,Climate sensitivity,Clouds,Feedback,Precipitation,Stability},
number = {5},
pages = {1833--1850},
title = {{Interactions between hydrological sensitivity, radiative cooling, stability, and low-level cloud amount feedback}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wehner2010,
abstract = {Abstract  We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.},
author = {Wehner, Michael F. and Smith, Richard L. and Bala, G. and Duffy, Phillip},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-009-0656-y},
isbn = {1432-0894},
issn = {09307575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate models,Extreme precipitation,High Return value},
number = {2},
pages = {241--247},
title = {{The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model}},
volume = {34},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Wehner2020,
abstract = {Using a non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value statistical method, projected future changes in selected extreme daily temperature and precipitation indices and their 20 year return values from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models are calculated and compared. Projections are framed in terms of specified global warming target temperatures rather than at specific times and under specific emissions scenarios. The change in framing shifts projection uncertainty due to differences in model climate sensitivity from the values of the projections to the timing of the global warming target. At their standard resolutions, there are no meaningful differences between the two generations of models in their projections of simulated extreme daily temperature and precipitation at specified global warming targets.},
author = {Wehner, Michael F and Gleckler, Peter and Lee, Jiwoo},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2020.100283},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Generalized extreme value theory,Long-period return values,Sample size,Uncertainty in extreme precipitation,uncertainty in extreme precipitation},
month = {dec},
number = {June},
pages = {100283},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Characterization of long period return values of extreme daily temperature and precipitation in the CMIP6 models: Part 1, model evaluation}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094719302440},
volume = {30},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wei2017,
abstract = {Even though knowing the contributions of transpiration (T), soil and open water evaporation (E), and interception (I) to terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET = T + E + I) is crucial for understanding the hydrological cycle and its connection to ecological processes, the fraction of T is unattainable by traditional measurement techniques over large scales. Previously reported global mean T/(E + T + I) from multiple independent sources, including satellite-based estimations, reanalysis, land surface models, and isotopic measurements, varies substantially from 24{\%} to 90{\%}. Here we develop a new ET partitioning algorithm, which combines global evapotranspiration estimates and relationships between leaf area index (LAI) and T/(E + T) for different vegetation types, to upscale a wide range of published site-scale measurements. We show that transpiration accounts for about 57.2{\%} (with standard deviation ± 6.8{\%}) of global terrestrial ET. Our approach bridges the scale gap between site measurements and global model simulations,and can be simply implemented into current global climate models to improve biological CO2 flux simulations.},
author = {Wei, Zhongwang and Yoshimura, Kei and Wang, Lixin and Miralles, Diego G. and Jasechko, Scott and Lee, Xuhui},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL072235},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = { partitioning algorithm,site measurements,transpiration},
number = {6},
pages = {2792--2801},
title = {{Revisiting the contribution of transpiration to global terrestrial evapotranspiration}},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wei2013,
abstract = {Water resources are an essential part of the ecosystem in the extremely arid northwestern part of China. Previous studies revealed a dry-to-wet climate change since the late 1980s in this region, which suggested a relief from the drought condition. However, the analysis in this study using the updated data shows that the arid situation has continued and even intensified in the past decade. This is reflected by the fact that the low-level air relative humidity and deep soil relative humidity have decreased in the past decade. Examination of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI) indicates that the severity and spatial extent of aridity and drought have increased substantially in northwestern China in the most recent decade. It is shown that the drought intensification in northwestern China is mainly caused by the increase of evaporation that results from the continuous rise in temperature, which will pose a continuous threat to the ecosystem and economic development in this region, especially under the background of global warming.},
author = {Wei, Ke and Wang, Lin},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00605.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Drought,Evaporation,Hydrology},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {9594--9602},
title = {{Reexamination of the Aridity Conditions in Arid Northwestern China for the Last Decade}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00605.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Weiss:etal2009,
author = {Weiss, Jeremy L and Castro, Christopher L and Overpeck, Jonathan T},
doi = {10.1175/2009JCLI2905.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {22},
pages = {5918--5932},
title = {{Distinguishing Pronounced Droughts in the Southwestern United States: Seasonality and Effects of Warmer Temperatures}},
volume = {22},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Weiss2014,
abstract = {AbstractIn this study, the impact of coupling and initializing the leaf area index from the dynamic vegetation model Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) is analyzed on skill of decadal predictions in the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice model, the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth). Similar to the impact of initializing the model with the observed oceanic state, initializing the leaf area index (LAI) fields obtained from an offline LPJ-GUESS simulation forced by the observed atmospheric state leads to a systematic drift. A different treatment of the water and soil moisture budget in LPJ-GUESS is a likely cause of this drift. The coupled system reduces the cold bias of the reference model over land by reducing LAI (and the associated evaporative cooling), particularly outside the growing season. The coupling with the interactive vegetation module implies more degrees of freedom in the coupled model, which generates more noise that can mask a portion of the ex...},
author = {Weiss, Martina and Miller, Paul A. and van den Hurk, Bart J.J.M. and van Noije, Twan and Ştefănescu, Simona and Haarsma, Reindert and van Ulft, Lambertus H. and Hazeleger, Wilco and {Le Sager}, Philippe and Smith, Benjamin and Schurgers, Guy},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00684.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-land interaction,Climate prediction,Climate variability,Forecast verification/skill,Surface temperature,Vegetation},
number = {22},
pages = {8563--8577},
title = {{Contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability}},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Weller2017,
abstract = {The parameterization of convection in climate models is a large source of uncertainty in projecting future precipitation changes. Here an objective method to identify organized low-level convergence lines has been used to better understand how atmospheric convection is organized and projected to change, as low-level convergence plays an important role in the processes leading to precipitation. The frequency and strength of convergence lines over both ocean and land in current climate simulations is too low compared to reanalysis data. Projections show a further reduction in the frequency and strength of convergence lines over the midlatitudes. In the tropics, the largest changes in frequency are generally associated with shifts in major low-latitude convergence zones, consistent with changes in the precipitation. Further, examining convergence lines when in the presence or absence of precipitation results in large spatial contrasts, providing a better understanding of regional changes in terms of thermodynamic and dynamic effects.},
author = {Weller, Evan and Jakob, Christian and Reeder, Michael J.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075489},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5 evaluation,atmospheric climate change,convergence,rainfall},
number = {20},
pages = {10682--10690},
title = {{Projected Response of Low-Level Convergence and Associated Precipitation to Greenhouse Warming}},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Welty2020,
abstract = {Abstract The relationship between morning soil moisture and afternoon rainfall persists as an important yet unresolved challenge in land-atmosphere interaction study, complicated in part by atmospheric influence. Here, we address this relationship by utilizing NASA's satellite soil moisture and precipitation data for the warm season (June-September) of 2015-2019 over Northern Hemisphere land (0-60°N). Raining days are partitioned into low, medium, and high regimes of atmospheric water vapor convergence. Under the low convergence regime, afternoon rainfall is more likely to occur over wetter soils or higher relative humidity; for days with high moisture convergence, occurrence favors drier soils or lower relative humidity. For each regime, afternoon rainfall occurrence favors warmer morning soil or air temperature. These conclusions are not affected by the threshold magnitude utilized to identify afternoon rainfall events by accumulation, but the threshold value does affect the soil moisture (or relative humidity)-precipitation relationship when convergence regimes are not considered.},
author = {Welty, Josh and Stillman, Susan and Zeng, Xubin and Santanello, Joseph},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL087779},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {e2020GL087779},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Increased Likelihood of Appreciable Afternoon Rainfall Over Wetter or Drier Soils Dependent Upon Atmospheric Dynamic Influence}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087779 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL087779},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Werner2009,
abstract = {Despite its purported importance, previous studies of the influence of sea-level rise on coastal aquifers have focused on specific sites, and a generalized systematic analysis of the general case of the sea water intrusion response to sea-level rise has not been reported. In this study, a simple conceptual framework is used to provide a first-order assessment of sea water intrusion changes in coastal unconfined aquifers in response to sea-level rise. Two conceptual models are tested: (1) flux-controlled systems, in which ground water discharge to the sea is persistent despite changes in sea level, and (2) head-controlled systems, whereby ground water abstractions or surface features maintain the head condition in the aquifer despite sea-level changes. The conceptualization assumes steady-state conditions, a sharp interface sea water-fresh water transition zone, homogeneous and isotropic aquifer properties, and constant recharge. In the case of constant flux conditions, the upper limit for sea water intrusion due to sea-level rise (up to 1.5 m is tested) is no greater than 50 m for typical values of recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and aquifer depth. This is in striking contrast to the constant head cases, in which the magnitude of salt water toe migration is on the order of hundreds of meters to several kilometers for the same sea-level rise. This study has highlighted the importance of inland boundary conditions on the sea-level rise impact. It identifies combinations of hydrogeologic parameters that control whether large or small salt water toe migration will occur for any given change in a hydrogeologic variable. {\textcopyright} 2009 National Ground Water Association.},
author = {Werner, Adrian D. and Simmons, Craig T.},
doi = {10.1111/j.1745-6584.2008.00535.x},
issn = {0017467X},
journal = {Groundwater},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {197--204},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Sea Water Intrusion in Coastal Aquifers}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1745-6584.2008.00535.x},
volume = {47},
year = {2009}
}
@book{wmms19,
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Wester, P and Mishra, A and Mukherji, A and Shrestha, A B},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1},
editor = {Wester, Philippus and Mishra, Arabinda and Mukherji, Aditi and Shrestha, Arun Bhakta},
pages = {627},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment}},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Westervelt2015,
abstract = {Abstract. It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80 {\%} by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m−2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm day−1. However, when using a version of CM3 with reduced present-day aerosol radiative forcing (−1.0 W m−2), the global temperature increase for RCP8.5 is about 0.5 K, with similar magnitude decreases in other climate response parameters as well. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger than the global mean, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm day−1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m−2 LWP decrease, and a 2 $\mu$m increase in cloud droplet effective radius. Future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 30–40 {\%} of total climate warming (or 10–20 {\%} with weaker aerosol forcing) by 2100 in East Asia, even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The expected unmasking of global warming caused by aerosol reductions will require more aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation policies than anticipated in order to meet desired climate targets.},
author = {Westervelt, D. M. and Horowitz, L. W. and Naik, V. and Golaz, J.-C. and Mauzerall, D. L.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-15-12681-2015},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {12681--12703},
title = {{Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/15/12681/2015/},
volume = {15},
year = {2015}
}
@article{westervelt2018connecting,
author = {Westervelt, Daniel M and Conley, Andrew J and Fiore, Arlene M and Lamarque, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Shindell, Drew T and Previdi, Michael and Mascioli, Nora R and Faluvegi, Greg and Correa, Gustavo and Horowitz, Larry W},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-12461-2018},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {12461--12475},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Connecting regional aerosol emissions reductions to local and remote precipitation responses}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/18/12461/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Westra_2014,
abstract = {Evidence that extreme rainfall intensity is increasing at the global scale has strengthened considerably in recent years. Research now indicates that the greatest increases are likely to occur in short-duration storms lasting less than a day, potentially leading to an increase in the magnitude and frequency of flash floods. This review examines the evidence for subdaily extreme rainfall intensification due to anthropogenic climate change and describes our current physical understanding of the association between subdaily extreme rainfall intensity and atmospheric temperature. We also examine the nature, quality, and quantity of information needed to allow society to adapt successfully to predicted future changes, and discuss the roles of observational and modeling studies in helping us to better understand the physical processes that can influence subdaily extreme rainfall characteristics. We conclude by describing the types of research required to produce a more thorough understanding of the relationships between local-scale thermodynamic effects, large-scale atmospheric circulation, and subdaily extreme rainfall intensity.},
annote = {review of evaluating future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall},
author = {Westra, S. and Fowler, H. J. and Evans, J. P. and Alexander, L. V. and Berg, P. and Johnson, F. and Kendon, E. J. and Lenderink, G. and Roberts, N. M.},
doi = {10.1002/2014RG000464},
isbn = {8755-1209},
issn = {19449208},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {Clausius-Clapeyron scaling,climate change,convection,downscaling,rainfall s,subdaily rainfall},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {522--555},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2014rg000464},
volume = {52},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Westra2013,
abstract = {This study investigates the presence of trends in annual maximum daily precipitation time series obtained from a global dataset of 8326 high-quality land-based observing stations with more than 30 years of record over the period from 1900 to 2009. Two complementary statistical techniques were adopted to evaluate the possible nonstationary behavior of these precipitation data. The first was a Mann–Kendall nonparametric trend test, and it was used to evaluate the existence of monotonic trends. The second was a nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis, and it was used to determine the strength of association between the precipitation extremes and globally averaged near-surface temperature. The outcomes are that statistically significant increasing trends can be detected at the global scale, with close to two-thirds of stations showing increases. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant association with globally averaged near-surface temperature, with the median intensity of extreme precipitation changing in proportion with changes in global mean temperature at a rate of between 5.9{\%} and 7.7{\%} K−1, depending on the method of analysis. This ratio was robust irrespective of record length or time period considered and was not strongly biased by the uneven global coverage of precipitation data. Finally, there is a distinct meridional variation, with the greatest sensitivity occurring in the tropics and higher latitudes and the minima around 13°S and 11°N. The greatest uncertainty was near the equator because of the limited number of sufficiently long precipitation records, and there remains an urgent need to improve data collection in this region to better constrain future changes in tropical precipitation.},
author = {Westra, Seth and Alexander, Lisa V. and Zwiers, Francis W.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {3904--3918},
title = {{Global Increasing Trends in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Wey2015,
abstract = {Anthropogenic water management can change surface energy budgets and the water cycle. In this study, we focused on impacts of Asian low-latitude irrigation on regional and global climates during boreal wintertime. A state-of-the-art Earth system model is used to simulate the land-air interaction processes affected by irrigation and the consequent responses in atmospheric circulation. Perturbed experiments show that wet soil moisture anomalies at low latitudes can reduce the surface temperature on a continental scale through atmospheric feedback. The intensity of prevailing monsoon circulation becomes stronger because of larger land-sea thermal contrast. Furthermore, anomalous upper level convergence over South Asia and midlatitude climatic changes indicate tropical-extratropical teleconnections. The wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and an anomalous warm surface temperature is found in North America. Previous studies have noted this warming but left it unexplained, and we provide plausible mechanisms for these remote impacts coming from the irrigation over Asian low-latitude regions.},
author = {Wey, Hao Wei and Lo, Min Hui and Lee, Shih Yu and Yu, Jin Yi and Hsu, Huang Hsiung},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL065883},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {irrigation,land-air interaction,teleconnection},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {8605--8614},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Potential impacts of wintertime soil moisture anomalies from agricultural irrigation at low latitudes on regional and global climates}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065883},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{WGMS2017,
abstract = {Internationally collected, standardized dataset on changes in glaciers (length, area, volume, mass), based on in-situ and remotely sensed observations, as well as on reconstructions.},
address = {Zurich, Switzerland},
author = {WGMS},
doi = {10.5904/wgms-fog-2017-10},
editor = {Zemp, M. and Nussbaumer, S.U. and G{\"{a}}rtnerRoer, I. and Huber, J. and Machguth, H. and Paul, F. and Hoelzle, M.},
pages = {244},
publisher = {World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS)},
title = {{Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 2 (2014–2015)}},
url = {https://wgms.ch/ggcb/},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Widlansky2019,
abstract = {Potential changing climate threats in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific Ocean were assessed, using coupled ocean–atmosphere and atmosphere-only general circulation models, to explore their response to projected increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Tropical cyclone occurrence, described by frequency and intensity, near islands housing major U.S. defense installations was the primary focus. Four island regions—Guam and Kwajalein Atoll in the tropical northwestern Pacific, Okinawa in the subtropical northwestern Pacific, and Oahu in the tropical north-central Pacific—were considered, as they provide unique climate and geographical characteristics that either enhance or reduce the tropical cyclone risk. Guam experiences the most frequent and severe tropical cyclones, which often originate as weak systems close to the equator near Kwajalein and sometimes track far enough north to affect Okinawa, whereas intense storms are the least frequent around Oahu. From assessments of models that simulate well the tropical Pacific climate, it was determined that, with a projected warming climate, the number of tropical cyclones is likely to decrease for Guam and Kwajalein but remain about the same near Okinawa and Oahu; however, the maximum intensity of the strongest storms may increase in most regions. The likelihood of fewer but stronger storms will necessitate new localized assessments of the risk and vulnerabilities to tropical cyclones in the North Pacific.},
author = {Widlansky, Matthew J. and Annamalai, H. and Gingerich, Stephen B. and Storlazzi, Curt D. and Marra, John J. and Hodges, Kevin I. and Choy, Barry and Kitoh, Akio},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0112.1},
issn = {1948-8327},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {3--15},
title = {{Tropical Cyclone Projections: Changing Climate Threats for Pacific Island Defense Installations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0112.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/wcas/article/11/1/3/107439/Tropical-Cyclone-Projections-Changing-Climate},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Wilcox2019ACP,
abstract = {Abstract. Asian emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors have increased rapidly since 1980, with half of the increase since the pre-industrial era occurring in this period. Transient experiments with the HadGEM3-GC2 coupled model were designed to isolate the impact of Asian anthropogenic aerosols on global climate in boreal winter. It is found that this increase has resulted in local circulation changes, which in turn have driven decreases in precipitation over China, alongside an intensification of the offshore monsoon flow. No large temperature changes are seen over China. Over India, the opposite response is found, with decreasing temperatures and increasing precipitation. The dominant feature of the local circulation changes is an increase in low-level convergence, ascent, and precipitation over the Maritime Continent, which forms part of a tropical Pacific-wide La Ni{\~{n}}a-like response. HadGEM3-GC2 also simulates pronounced far-field responses. A decreased meridional temperature gradient in the North Pacific leads to a positive Pacific–North American circulation pattern, with associated temperature anomalies over the North Pacific and North America. Anomalous northeasterly flow over northeast Europe drives advection of cold air into central and western Europe, causing cooling in this region. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the North Atlantic causes drying over western Europe. Using a steady-state primitive equation model, LUMA, we demonstrate that these far-field midlatitude responses arise primarily as a result of Rossby waves generated over China, rather than in the equatorial Pacific.},
author = {Wilcox, Laura J. and Dunstone, Nick and Lewinschal, Anna and Bollasina, Massimo and Ekman, Annica M. L. and Highwood, Eleanor J.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-19-9081-2019},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {9081--9095},
publisher = {Copernicus {\{}GmbH{\}}},
title = {{Mechanisms for a remote response to Asian anthropogenic aerosol in boreal winter}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/9081/2019/},
volume = {19},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Wilcox2018b,
abstract = {In recent years, West Africa has witnessed an increasing number of damaging floods that raise the question of a possible intensification of the hydrological hazards in the region. In this study, the evolution of extreme floods is analyzed over the period 1950–2015 for seven tributaries in the Sudano-Guinean part of the Senegal River basin and four data sets in the Sahelian part of the Niger River basin. Non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (NS-GEV) distributions including twelve models with time-dependent parameters plus a stationary GEV are applied to annual maxima of daily discharge (AMAX) series. An original methodology is proposed for comparing GEV models and selecting the best for use. The stationary GEV is rejected for all stations, demonstrating the significant non-stationarity of extreme discharge values in West Africa over the past six decades. The model of best fit most commonly selected is a double-linear model for the central tendency parameter (), with the dispersion parameter () modeled as either stationary, linear, or a double-linear. Change points in double-linear models are relatively consistent for the Senegal basin, with stations switching from a decreasing streamflow trend to an increasing streamflow trend in the early 1980s. In the Niger basin the trend in is generally positive since the 1970s with an increase in slope after the change point, but the change point location is less consistent. The recent increasing trends in extreme discharges are reflected in an especially marked increase in return level magnitudes since the 1980s in the studied Sahelian rivers. The rate of the increase indicated by the study results raises urgent considerations for stakeholders and engineers who are in charge of river basin management and hydraulic works sizing.},
author = {Wilcox, Catherine and Vischel, Th{\'{e}}o and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Bodian, Ansoumana and Blanchet, Juliette and Descroix, Luc and Quantin, Guillaume and Cass{\'{e}}, Claire and Tanimoun, Bachir and Kone, Soungalo},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.063},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Extreme values,Flood hazard,Floods,Model selection,Non-stationarity,West Africa},
month = {nov},
number = {September},
pages = {531--545},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Trends in hydrological extremes in the Senegal and Niger Rivers}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169418305766 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.063},
volume = {566},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wilcox2020,
author = {Wilcox, Laura J and Liu, Zhen and Samset, Bj{\o}rn H and Hawkins, Ed and Lund, Marianne T and Nordling, Kalle and Undorf, Sabine and Bollasina, Massimo and Ekman, Annica M L and Krishnan, Srinath and Merikanto, Joonas and Turner, Andrew G},
doi = {10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {11955--11977},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/11955/2020/},
volume = {20},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wild2017b,
abstract = {The Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) is a database for the central storage of the worldwide measured energy fluxes at the Earth's surface, maintained at ETH Zurich (Switzerland). This paper documents the status of the GEBA version 2017 dataset, presents the new web interface and user access, and reviews the scientific impact that GEBA data had in various applications. GEBA has continuously been expanded and updated and contains in its 2017 version around 500 000 monthly mean entries of various surface energy balance components measured at 2500 locations. The database contains observations from 15 surface energy flux components, with the most widely measured quantity available in GEBA being the shortwave radiation incident at the Earth's surface (global radiation). Many of the historic records extend over several decades. GEBA contains monthly data from a variety of sources, namely from the World Radiation Data Centre (WRDC) in St. Petersburg, from national weather services, from different research networks (BSRN, ARM, SURFRAD), from peer-reviewed publications, project and data reports, and from personal communications. Quality checks are applied to test for gross errors in the dataset. GEBA has played a key role in various research applications, such as in the quantification of the global energy balance, in the discussion of the anomalous atmospheric shortwave absorption, and in the detection of multi-decadal variations in global radiation, known as global dimming" and "brightening". GEBA is further extensively used for the evaluation of climate models and satellite-derived surface flux products. On a more applied level, GEBA provides the basis for engineering applications in the context of solar power generation, water management, agricultural production and tourism. GEBA is publicly accessible through the internet via http://www.geba.ethz.ch. Supplementary data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.873078.},
author = {Wild, Martin and Ohmura, Atsumu and Sch{\"{a}}r, Christoph and M{\"{u}}ller, Guido and Folini, Doris and Schwarz, Matthias and {Zyta Hakuba}, Maria and Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo},
doi = {10.5194/essd-9-601-2017},
issn = {18663516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {aug},
number = {2},
pages = {601--613},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{The Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) version 2017: A database for worldwide measured surface energy fluxes}},
url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/601/2017/ https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/601/2017/essd-9-601-2017.pdf},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wild2012,
abstract = {A fundamental determinant of climate and life on our planet is the solar radiation (sunlight) incident at the Earth's surface. Any change in this precious energy source affects our habitats profoundly. Until recently, for simplicity and lack of better knowledge, the amount of solar radiation received at the Earth's surface was assumed to be stable over the years. However, there is increasing observational evidence that this quantity undergoes significant multidecadal variations, which need to be accounted for in discussions of climate change and mitigation strategies. Coherent periods and regions with prevailing declines (“dimming”) and inclines (“brightening”) in surface solar radiation have been detected in the worldwide observational networks, often in accord with anthropogenic air pollution patterns. The present synthesis provides in a nutshell the main characteristics of this phenomenon, a conceptual framework for its causes, and an overview of potential environmental implications. The latest develop...},
author = {Wild, Martin},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {27--37},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening}},
volume = {93},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Wilhite1985,
abstract = {Numerous definitions of drought are reviewed to determine those characteristics scientists consider most essential for a description and an understanding of the phenomenon. Discusses the far-reaching impacts of drought on society, and suggests that definitions of drought are typically simplistic, and, in that way, often lead to a rather poor understanding of the dimensions of the concept.-from Authors},
author = {Wilhite, Donald A. and Glantz, Michael H.},
doi = {10.1080/02508068508686328},
issn = {0250-8060},
journal = {Water International},
month = {jan},
number = {3},
pages = {111--120},
title = {{Understanding: the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02508068508686328},
volume = {10},
year = {1985}
}
@incollection{Wilhite2000a,
abstract = {Wilhite, D.A. 2000. Drought as a natural hazard: Concepts and definitions. pp.3-18. In Drought: A Global Assessment. Routledge Publishers, London. 16 pp.},
address = {London, UK},
author = {Wilhite, Donald A},
booktitle = {Drought: A Global Assessment},
editor = {Wilhite, Donald A},
isbn = {9780415168335},
pages = {3--18},
publisher = {Routledge},
title = {{Chapter I. Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions}},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Wille2019,
abstract = {Recent major melting events in West Antarctica have raised concerns about a potential hydrofracturing and ice shelf instability. These events often share common forcings of surface melt-like anomalous radiative fluxes, turbulent heat fluxes and f{\"{o}}hn winds. Using an atmospheric river detection algorithm developed for Antarctica together with surface melt datasets, we produced a climatology of atmospheric river-related surface melting around Antarctica and show that atmospheric rivers are associated with a large percentage of these surface melt events. Despite their rarity (around 12 events per year in West Antarctica), atmospheric rivers are associated with around 40{\%} of the total summer meltwater generated across the Ross Ice Shelf to nearly 100{\%} in the higher elevation Marie Byrd Land and 40–80{\%} of the total winter meltwater generated on the Wilkins, Bach, George IV and Larsen B and C ice shelves. These events were all related to high-pressure blocking ridges that directed anomalous poleward moisture transport towards the continent. Major melt events in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet only occur about a couple times per decade, but a 1–2 °C warming and continued increase in atmospheric river activity could increase the melt frequency with consequences for ice shelf stability.},
author = {Wille, Jonathan D and Favier, Vincent and Dufour, Ambroise and Gorodetskaya, Irina V and Turner, John and Agosta, C{\'{e}}cile and Codron, Francis},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0460-1},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {11},
pages = {911--916},
title = {{West Antarctic surface melt triggered by atmospheric rivers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0460-1},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Willett2020,
abstract = {Atmospheric humidity plays an important role in climate analyses. Here we describe the production and key characteristics of a new quasi-global marine humidity product intended for climate monitoring, HadISDH.marine. It is an in situ multivariable marine humidity product, gridded monthly at a 5∘×5∘ spatial resolution from January 1973 to December 2018 with annual updates planned. Currently, only reanalyses provide up-to-date estimates of marine surface humidity, but there are concerns over their long-term stability. As a result, this new product makes a valuable addition to the climate record and will help address some of the uncertainties around recent changes (e.g. contrasting land and sea trends, relative-humidity drying). Efforts have been made to quality-control the data, ensure spatial and temporal homogeneity as far as possible, adjust for known biases in non-aspirated instruments and ship heights, and also estimate uncertainty in the data. Uncertainty estimates for whole-number reporting and for other measurement errors have not been quantified before for marine humidity. This is a companion product to HadISDH.land, which, when combined, will provide methodologically consistent land and marine estimates of surface humidity. The spatial coverage of HadISDH.marine is good over the Northern Hemisphere outside of the high latitudes but poor over the Southern Hemisphere, especially south of 20∘ S. The trends and variability shown are in line with overall signals of increasing moisture and warmth over oceans from theoretical expectations and other products. Uncertainty in the global average is larger over periods where digital ship metadata are fewer or unavailable but not large enough to cast doubt over trends in specific humidity or air temperature. Hence, we conclude that HadISDH.marine is a useful contribution to our understanding of climate change. However, we note that our ability to monitor surface humidity with any degree of confidence depends on the continued availability of ship data and provision of digitized metadata.},
author = {Willett, Kate and Dunn, Robert and Kennedy, John and Berry, David},
doi = {10.5194/essd-12-2853-2020},
issn = {1866-3508},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
keywords = {Climate change,Climatology,Geology,Humidity,Latitude,Meteorology,New product development,Northern Hemisphere,Observational error,Relative Southern Hemisphere},
month = {nov},
pages = {2853--2880},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
title = {{Development of the HadISDH marine humidity climate monitoring dataset}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2853-2020},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Willett2014ClimPast,
abstract = {HadISDH.2.0.0 is the first gridded, multi-variable humidity and temperature in situ observations-only climate-data product that is homogenised and annually updated. It provides physically consistent estimates for specific humidity, vapour pressure, relative humidity, dew point temperature, wet bulb temperature, dew point depression and temperature. It is a monthly mean gridded (5° by 5°) product with uncertainty estimates that account for spatio-temporal sampling, climatology calculation, homogenisation and irreducible random measurement effects. It provides a tool for the long-term monitoring of a variety of humidity-related variables which have different impacts and implications for society. It is also useful for climate model evaluation and reanalyses validation. HadISDH.2.0.0 is shown to be in good agreement both with other estimates and with theoretical understanding. The data set is available from 1973 to the present. The theme common to all variables is of a warming world with more water vapour present in the atmosphere. The largest increases in water vapour are found over the tropics and the Mediterranean. Over the tropics and high northern latitudes the surface air over land is becoming more saturated. However, despite increasing water vapour over the mid-latitudes and Mediterranean, the surface air over land is becoming less saturated. These observed features may be due to atmospheric circulation changes, land–sea warming disparities and reduced water availability or changed land surface properties.},
author = {Willett, K. M. and Dunn, R. J.H. and Thorne, P. W. and Bell, S. and {De Podesta}, M. and Parker, D. E. and Jones, P. D. and Williams, C. N.},
doi = {10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014},
isbn = {1814-9332},
issn = {18149332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {nov},
number = {6},
pages = {1983--2006},
publisher = {Copernicus {\{}GmbH{\}}},
title = {{HadISDH land surface multi-variable humidity and temperature record for climate monitoring}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194{\%}2Fcp-10-1983-2014},
volume = {10},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Willetts2017,
author = {Willetts, P D and Marsham, J H and Birch, C E and Parker, D J and Webster, S. and Petch, J.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2991},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {accepted 16 december 2016,convection-permitting simulations,convective parametrization,indian monsoon,large-domain,moist convection,online library,published online in wiley,received 22 july 2016,revised 26 november 2016,upscale impacts},
month = {jan},
number = {703},
pages = {1073--1085},
title = {{Moist convection and its upscale effects in simulations of the Indian monsoon with explicit and parametrized convection}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2991},
volume = {143},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Williams2013,
abstract = {As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000-2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82{\%} of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization. Copyright {\textcopyright} 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited.},
author = {Williams, A. Park and Allen, Craig D. and Macalady, Alison K. and Griffin, Daniel and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Meko, David M. and Swetnam, Thomas W. and Rauscher, Sara A. and Seager, Richard and Grissino-Mayer, Henri D. and Dean, Jeffrey S. and Cook, Edward R. and Gangodagamage, Chandana and Cai, Michael and McDowell, Nate G.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1693},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {292--297},
title = {{Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1693},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Williams2015a,
abstract = {Asuite of climate data sets andmultiple representations of atmosphericmoisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012–2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012–2014 droughtwas record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8–27{\%} of the observed drought anomaly in 2012–2014 and 5–18{\%} in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts. 1.},
author = {Williams, A. Park and Seager, Richard and Abatzoglou, John T. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Smerdon, Jason E. and Cook, Edward R.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064924},
isbn = {1944-8007},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {California,Palmer Drought Severity Index,climate change attribution,drought,potential evapotranspiration,warming},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6819--6828},
title = {{Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015GL064924},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Williams2020b,
abstract = {Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000-2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000-2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47{\%} (model interquartiles of 35 to 105{\%}) of the 2000-2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.},
author = {Williams, A. Park and Cook, Edward R. and Smerdon, Jason E. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Abatzoglou, John T. and Bolles, Kasey and Baek, Seung H. and Badger, Andrew M. and Livneh, Ben},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaz9600},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {apr},
number = {6488},
pages = {314--318},
pmid = {32299953},
title = {{Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaz9600},
volume = {368},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Williams2011,
abstract = {Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by {\~{}}40° longitude ({\textgreater}4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E-140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980-2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the 'long-rains' season of March-June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more 'El Ni{\~{n}}o-like' conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning. {\textcopyright} 2010 The Author(s).},
author = {Williams, A. Park and Funk, Chris},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y},
issn = {09307575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate change,Drought,East Africa,Indian Ocean,Precipitation,Tropical warm pool},
number = {11-12},
pages = {2417--2435},
title = {{A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa}},
volume = {37},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Willison2015,
abstract = {Mesoscale condensational heating can increase the sensitivity of modeled extratropical cyclogenesis to horizontal resolution. Here a pseudo global warming experiment is presented to investigate how this heating-enhanced sensitivity to resolution changes in a warmer and thus moister atmosphere. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with 120-and 20-km grid spacing is used to simulate current and future climates. It is found that the North Atlantic storm-track response to global warming is amplified at the higher model resolution. The most dramatic changes occur over the northeastern Atlantic, where resolution typical of current general circulation models (GCMs) results in a smaller global warming response in comparison with that in the 20-km simulations. These results suggest that caution is warranted when interpreting projections from coarse-resolution GCMs of future cyclone activity over the northeastern Atlantic.},
author = {Willison, Jeff and Robinson, Walter A. and Lackmann, Gary M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00715.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Extratropical cyclones,Storm tracks},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {4513--4524},
title = {{North Atlantic storm-track sensitivity to warming increases with model resolution}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00715.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Wills2015,
abstract = {Transport of water vapor in the atmosphere generates substantial spatial variability of net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation). Over half of the total spatial variability in annual-mean net precipitation is accounted for by deviations from the zonal mean. Over land, these regional differences determine differences in surface water availability. Over oceans, they account, for example, for the Pacific–Atlantic difference in sea surface salinity, with implications for the deep overturning circulation. This study analyzes the atmospheric water budget in reanalyses from ERA-Interim and MERRA, to investigate which physical balances lead to zonal variation in net precipitation. It is found that the leading-order contribution is zonal variation in stationary-eddy vertical motion. Transient eddies modify the pattern of zonally anomalous net precipitation by moving moisture from the subtropical and tropical oceans onto land and poleward across the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. Zonal variation in specific humidity and stationary-eddy horizontal advection play a secondary role. The dynamics leading to net precipitation via vertical motion in stationary eddies can be understood from a lower-tropospheric vorticity budget. The large-scale variations of vertical motion are primarily described by Sverdrup balance and Ekman pumping, with some modification by transient eddies. These results suggest that it is important to understand changes in stationary eddies and their influence on the zonal variation of transient eddy fluxes, in order to understand regional changes in net precipitation. They highlight the relative importance of different atmospheric mechanisms for the freshwater forcing of the North Pacific and North Atlantic.},
annote = {"These results suggest that it is important to understand changes in stationary eddies and their influence on the zonal variation of transient eddy fluxes, in order to understand regional changes in net precipitation. "},
author = {Wills, Robert C.J. and Schneider, Tapio},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00573.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {5115--5133},
title = {{Stationary Eddies and the Zonal Asymmetry of Net Precipitation and Ocean Freshwater Forcing}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00573.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Wills2019,
author = {Wills, Robert C J and White, Rachel H and Levine, Xavier J},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-019-00147-6},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Atmospheric general circulation,Climate change,Climate dynamics,Rossby waves,Stationary waves},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {372--389},
publisher = {Current Climate Change Reports},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere Stationary Waves in a Changing Climate}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-019-00147-6},
volume = {5},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Wills2017a,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2017 American Meteorological Society. The weakening of tropical overturning circulations is a robust response to global warming in climate models and observations. However, there remain open questions on the causes of this change and the extent to which this weakening affects individual circulation features such as the Walker circulation. The study presents idealized GCM simulations of a Walker circulation forced by prescribed ocean heat flux convergence in a slab ocean, where the longwave opacity of the atmosphere is varied to simulate a wide range of climates. The weakening of the Walker circulation with warming results from an increase in gross moist stability (GMS), a measure of the tropospheric moist static energy (MSE) stratification, which provides an effective static stability for tropical circulations. Baroclinic mode theory is used to determine changes in GMS in terms of the tropical-mean profiles of temperature and MSE. The GMS increases with warming, owing primarily to the rise in tropopause height, decreasing the sensitivity of the Walker circulation to zonally anomalous net energy input. In the absence of large changes in net energy input, this results in a rapid weakening of the Walker circulation with global warming.},
author = {Wills, Robert C.J. and Levine, Xavier J. and Schneider, Tapio},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-16-0219.1},
issn = {15200469},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Convergence/divergence,Dynamics,Energy transport circulation},
number = {6},
pages = {1907--1922},
title = {{Local energetic constraints on walker circulation strength}},
volume = {74},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wing2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2017 Springer Science+Business Media DordrechtOrganized convection in the tropics occurs across a range of spatial and temporal scales and strongly influences cloud cover and humidity. One mode of organization found is “self-aggregation,” in which moist convection spontaneously organizes into one or several isolated clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing. Self-aggregation is driven by interactions between clouds, moisture, radiation, surface fluxes, and circulation, and occurs in a wide variety of idealized simulations of radiative–convective equilibrium. Here we provide a review of convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations, including its character, causes, and effects. We describe the evolution of self-aggregation including its time and length scales and the physical mechanisms leading to its triggering and maintenance, and we also discuss possible links to climate and climate change.},
author = {Wing, Allison A. and Emanuel, Kerry and Holloway, Christopher E. and Muller, Caroline},
doi = {10.1007/s10712-017-9408-4},
isbn = {1071201794},
issn = {15730956},
journal = {Surveys in Geophysics},
keywords = {Convective organization,Convective processes,Idealized modeling,Radiative–convective equilibrium,Self-aggregation,Tropical },
number = {6},
pages = {1173--1197},
title = {{Convective Self-Aggregation in Numerical Simulations: A Review}},
volume = {38},
year = {2017}
}
@article{wd17,
author = {Wise, Erika K and Dannenberg, Matthew P},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1602263},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {e1602263},
title = {{Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America}},
url = {https://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1602263},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wodzicki2016,
author = {Wodzicki, K. R. and Rapp, A. D.},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD024458},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Hadley circulation,ITCZ width,Intertropical Convergence Zone,precipitation trends,tropical Pacific},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3153--3170},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Long-term characterization of the Pacific ITCZ using TRMM, GPCP, and ERA-Interim}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015JD024458},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wolding2017,
author = {Wolding, Brandon O. and Maloney, Eric D. and Henderson, Stephanie and Branson, Mark},
doi = {10.1002/2016MS000843},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {307--331},
title = {{Climate change and the Madden–Julian Oscillation: A vertically resolved weak temperature gradient analysis}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016MS000843},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6768,
abstract = {Abstract We analyse long-term (1900–2017) rainfall data in the southern part of the winter rainfall region of southern Africa to understand the spatial patterns of recent and long-term trends and contextualize the 2015–2017 rainfall anomalies which led to the so-called “Day Zero” drought in Cape Town. Our analyses reveal cohesive spatial patterns and seasonal differences in rainfall trends across a range of timescales. These suggest that rainfall is subject to regional driving mechanisms, predominantly manifested at the 20–50 year timescale, but the influence of these mechanisms is modified by subregional and seasonally specific processes, frequently resulting in trends of different magnitudes and even sign. Trend patterns are consistent with multidecadal-scale quasi-periodicity, with only the most recent phase (post-1981 drying) corresponding to the expected regional response to hemispheric processes linked to anthropogenic climate change. The spatial and seasonal patterns of drying observed since 1981 alone do not explain the pattern of 2015–2017 drought anomalies, although they share a strong autumn and weak mid-winter signal. These results have implications to the interpretation of drought in the context of observed rainfall trends. Furthermore, we identify directions for improvement of the conceptual understanding of drivers of rainfall variability and the role of anthropogenic climate change in the winter rainfall region of South Africa.},
author = {Wolski, Piotr and Conradie, Stefaan and Jack, Christopher and Tadross, Mark},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6768},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Mediterranean climate,drought,rainfall trend},
month = {jan},
number = {S1},
pages = {E1303--E1319},
title = {{Spatio‐temporal patterns of rainfall trends and the 2015–2017 drought over the winter rainfall region of South Africa}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6768 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6768},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Woodhouse2016,
abstract = {This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture can result in flow deficits of similar magnitude, but recent droughts have been amplified by warmer temperatures that exacerbate the effects of relatively modest precipitation deficits. Since 1988, a marked increase in the frequency of warm years with lower flows than expected, given precipitation, suggests continued warming temperatures will be an increasingly important influence in reducing future UCRB water supplies.},
author = {Woodhouse, Connie A. and Pederson, Gregory T. and Morino, Kiyomi and McAfee, Stephanie A. and McCabe, Gregory J.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL067613},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Colorado River Basin,soil moisture,warming temperatures,water year streamflow},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2174--2181},
title = {{Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL067613},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Woollings2018CCCR,
abstract = {Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields.},
author = {Woollings, Tim and Barriopedro, David and Methven, John and Son, Seok Woo and Martius, Olivia and Harvey, Ben and Sillmann, Jana and Lupo, Anthony R. and Seneviratne, Sonia},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z},
isbn = {0959-535X},
issn = {21986061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Extreme events,Storm tracks},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {287--300},
publisher = {Springer Nature America, Inc},
title = {{Blocking and its Response to Climate Change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Woolway2019NGeo,
abstract = {Lakes hold much of Earth's accessible liquid freshwater, support biodiversity and provide key ecosystem services to people around the world. However, they are vulnerable to climate change, for example through shorter durations of ice cover, or through rising lake surface temperatures. Here we use a one-dimensional numerical lake model to assess climate change impacts on mixing regimes in 635 lakes worldwide. We run the lake model with input data from four state-of-the-art model projections of twenty-first-century climate under two emissions scenarios. Under the scenario with higher emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0), many lakes are projected to have reduced ice cover; about one-quarter of seasonally ice-covered lakes are projected to be permanently ice-free by 2080–2100. Surface waters are projected to warm, with a median warming across lakes of about 2.5 °C, and the most extreme warming about 5.5 °C. Our simulations suggest that around 100 of the studied lakes are projected to undergo changes in their mixing regimes. About one-quarter of these 100 lakes are currently classified as monomictic—undergoing one mixing event in most years— and will become permanently stratified systems. About one-sixth of these are currently dimictic—mixing twice per year—and will become monomictic. We conclude that many lakes will mix less frequently in response to climate change.},
annote = {modelling shows that many lakes will mix less frequently in response to surface warming},
author = {Woolway, R. Iestyn and Merchant, Christopher J.},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0322-x},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {Hydrology,Limnology},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {271--276},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Worldwide alteration of lake mixing regimes in response to climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0322-x},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Woolway2020,
abstract = {Climate change is one of the most severe threats to global lake ecosystems. Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation and water level, respond dramatically to this threat, as observed in recent decades. In this Review, we discuss physical lake variables and their responses to climate change. Decreases in winter ice cover and increases in lake surface temperature modify lake mixing regimes and accelerate lake evaporation. Where not balanced by increased mean precipitation or inflow, higher evaporation rates will favour a decrease in lake level and surface water extent. Together with increases in extreme-precipitation events, these lake responses will impact lake ecosystems, changing water quantity and quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and transportation. Future research opportunities, including enhanced observation of lake variables from space (particularly for small water bodies), improved in situ lake monitoring and the development of advanced modelling techniques to predict lake processes, will improve our global understanding of lake responses to a changing climate.},
author = {Woolway, R Iestyn and Kraemer, Benjamin M. and Lenters, John D. and Merchant, Christopher J. and O'Reilly, Catherine M. and Sharma, Sapna},
doi = {10.1038/s43017-020-0067-5},
issn = {2662-138X},
journal = {Nature Reviews Earth {\&} Environment},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {388--403},
title = {{Global lake responses to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0067-5 http://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-0067-5},
volume = {1},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wortham2017,
author = {Wortham, Barbara E. and Wong, Corinne I. and Silva, Lucas C.R. and McGee, David and Monta{\~{n}}ez, Isabel P. and Rasbury, Troy E. and Cooper, Kari M. and Sharp, Warren D. and Glessner, Justin J.G. and Santos, Roberto V.},
doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2017.01.034},
issn = {0012821X},
journal = {Earth and Planetary Science Letters},
pages = {310--322},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Assessing response of local moisture conditions in central Brazil to variability in regional monsoon intensity using speleothem 87Sr/86Sr values}},
volume = {463},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wu2013,
abstract = {The global hydrological cycle is a key component of Earth's climate system. A significant amount of the energy the Earth receives from the Sun is redistributed around the world by the hydrological cycle in the form of latent heat flux1. Changes in the hydrological cycle have a direct impact on droughts, floods, water resources and ecosystem services. Observed land precipitation2–4 and global river discharges5 do not show an increasing trend as might be expected in a warming world6–11. Here we show that this apparent discrepancy can be resolved when the effects of tropospheric aerosols are considered. Analysing state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we find for the first time that there was a detectable weakening of the hydrological cycle between the 1950s and the 1980s, attributable to increased anthropogenic aerosols, after which the hydrological cycle recovered as a result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The net result of these two counter-acting effects is an insignificant trend in the global hydrological cycle, but the individual influence of each is substantial. Reductions in air pollution have already shown an intensification in the past two decades12–14 and a further rapid increase in precipitation could be expected if the current trend continues.},
author = {Wu, Peili and Christidis, Nikolaos and Stott, Peter},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1932},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {807--810},
title = {{Anthropogenic impact on Earth's hydrological cycle}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1932},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Wu2016e,
author = {Wu, Bo and Lin, Jianshe and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.1002/asl.677},
issn = {1530261X},
journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {446--452},
title = {{Interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection pattern during boreal summer}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/asl.677},
volume = {17},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wu2018GRL,
abstract = {Climate warming is altering historical patterns of snow accumulation and ablation, hence threatening natural water resources. We evaluated the impact of climate warming on snowmelt rates using the GlobSnow v2.0 and MERRA‐2 datasets over the northern hemisphere (NH) during the past 38 years (1980‐2017). Higher ablation rates were found in the locations with deeper snow water equivalent (SWE) because high snow melt rates occurred in late spring and early summer in deep snowpack regions. In addition, due to the reduction of SWE in deep snowpack regions, moderate and high snow ablation rates showed a decreasing trend. Therefore, slower snowmelt rates were found over the entire NH in a warmer climate in general. Based on projections of SWE in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, slower snowmelt rates in the NH may continue to happen in future.},
author = {Wu, Xuejiao and Che, Tao and Li, Xin and Wang, Ninglian and Yang, Xiaofan},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079511},
isbn = {00948276},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate change,Northern hemisphere,Remote sensing,Snow cover,Snow water equivalent,Snowmelt},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {12331--12339},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Slower snowmelt in spring along with climate warming across the Northern Hemisphere}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL079511 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079511},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wu2016f,
abstract = {Based on the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, the dominant modes of interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are investigated through a multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis (MV-EOF). The first mode (EA1) is characterized by an anomalous cyclone centered over Taiwan and an anomalous anticyclone centered over the Bohai Sea. These phenomena are part of the meridional wave–like teleconnection pattern propagating poleward from the southern tropical western North Pacific (WNP), referred to as the interdecadal Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern. The interdecadal PJ pattern is driven by negative anomalous convective heating over the southern tropical WNP, which is associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the interdecadal Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM). The amplitude of the EA1 and its contribution to the total variance of the EASM decrease remarkably after the 1960s. The second MV-EOF mode (EA2) is characterized by cyclone anomalies extending from northeastern China to Japan, which are part of a circumglobal wave train. Given the spatial scale of the wave train in the zonal direction (wavenumber 5), as well as the fact that it possesses barotropic structures and propagates along the Northern Hemispheric jet stream, it is referred to herein as the interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. The interdecadal CGT pattern is associated with the forcing from the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Though the interdecadal PJ and CGT patterns are derived from the 20CR dataset, they are carefully verified through comparisons with various observational and reanalysis datasets from different perspectives.},
author = {Wu, Bo and Zhou, Tianjun and Li, Tim},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0105.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3253--3271},
title = {{Impacts of the Pacific–Japan and Circumglobal Teleconnection Patterns on the Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/29/9/3253/342665/Impacts-of-the-PacificJapan-and-Circumglobal},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wu2018,
author = {Wu, Tongwen and Lu, Yixiong and Fang, Yongjie and Xin, Xiaoge and Li, Laurent and Li, Weiping and Jie, Weihua and Zhang, Jie and Liu, Yiming and Zhang, Li and Zhang, Fang and Zhang, Yanwu and Wu, Fanghua and Li, Jianglong and Chu, Min and Wang, Zaizhi and Shi, Xueli and Liu, Xiangwen and Wei, Min and Huang, Anning and Zhang, Yaocun and Liu, Xiaohong},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-1573-2019},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1573--1600},
publisher = {Model Dev. Discuss},
title = {{The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM): the main progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/1573/2019/},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Wurtsbaugh2017,
abstract = {Geochemical models describing the behaviour of niobium during Earth's growth rely on the general paradigm that niobium was delivered by Earth's asteroidal building blocks at chondritic abundances. This paradigm is based on the observation that niobium is traditionally regarded as a refractory and strongly lithophile element, and thus stored in the silicate portions of Earth and differentiated asteroids. However, Earth's silicate mantle is instead selectively depleted in niobium, in marked contrast to the silicate mantles of many asteroids and smaller planets that apparently lack any significant depletion in niobium. Here we present results of high-precision measurements for niobium and other lithophile elements in representative meteorites from various small differentiated asteroids. Our data, along with the results of low-pressure experiments, show that in more reduced asteroids - such as Earth's first building blocks - niobium is moderately chalcophile and more so than its geochemical twin tantalum by an order of magnitude. Accordingly, niobium can be sequestered into the cores of more reduced asteroids during differentiation via the segregation of sulfide melts in a carbon-saturated environment. We suggest that the niobium deficit in Earth's silicate mantle may be explained by the Earth's silicate mantle preferentially accreting the silicate portions of reduced asteroidal building blocks.},
author = {Wurtsbaugh, Wayne A. and Miller, Craig and Null, Sarah E. and {Justin De Rose}, R. and Wilcock, Peter and Hahnenberger, Maura and Howe, Frank and Moore, Johnnie},
doi = {10.1038/NGEO3052},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {11},
pages = {816--821},
title = {{Decline of the world's saline lakes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3052},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wurtzel2018,
abstract = {Abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are known to have affected the strength of the Indian and Asian Monsoons during glacial and deglacial climate states. However, there is still much uncertainty around the hydroclimate response of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) region to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic. Many studies suggest a mean southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the IPWP region during phases of reduced Atlantic meridional overturning, however, existing proxies have seasonal biases and conflicting responses, making it difficult to determine the true extent of North Atlantic forcing in this climatically important region. Here we present a precisely-dated, high-resolution record of eastern Indian Ocean hydroclimate variability spanning the last 16 ky (thousand years) from $\delta$18O measurements in an aragonite–calcite speleothem from central Sumatra. This represents the western-most speleothem record from the IPWP region. Precipitation arrives year-round at this site, with the majority sourced from the local tropical eastern Indian Ocean and two additional long-range seasonal sources associated with the boreal and austral summer monsoons. The Sumatran speleothem demonstrates a clear deglacial structure that includes18O enrichment during the Younger Dryas and18O depletion during the B{\o}lling–Aller{\o}d, similar to the pattern seen in speleothems of the Asian and Indian monsoon realms. The speleothem $\delta$18O changes at this site are best explained by changes in rainfall amount and changes in the contributions from different moisture pathways. Reduced rainfall in Sumatra during the Younger Dryas is most likely driven by reductions in moisture transport along the northern or southern monsoon transport pathways to Sumatra. Considered with other regional proxies, the record from Sumatra suggests the response of the IPWP to North Atlantic freshwater forcing is not solely driven by southward shifts of the ITCZ, but also a reduction in moisture transport along both monsoon pathways.},
author = {Wurtzel, Jennifer B. and Abram, Nerilie J. and Lewis, Sophie C. and Bajo, Petra and Hellstrom, John C. and Troitzsch, Ulrike and Heslop, David},
doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2018.04.001},
issn = {0012821X},
journal = {Earth and Planetary Science Letters},
keywords = {ITCZ,Indo-Pacific,Younger Dryas,deglaciation,oxygen isotopes,speleothem},
month = {jun},
pages = {264--278},
title = {{Tropical Indo-Pacific hydroclimate response to North Atlantic forcing during the last deglaciation as recorded by a speleothem from Sumatra, Indonesia}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012821X18301961},
volume = {492},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Xia2017GRL,
abstract = {The tropical atmospheric circulation is projected to weaken during global warming, although the mechanisms that cause the weakening remain to be elucidated. We hypothesize that the weakening is related to the inhomogeneous distribution of the radiative forcing and feedback, which heats the tropical atmosphere in the ascending and subsiding regions differentially and thus requires the circulation to weaken due to energetic constraints. We test this hypothesis in a series of numerical experiments using a fully coupled general circulation model (GCM), in which the radiative forcing distribution is controlled using a novel method. The results affirm the effect of inhomogeneous forcing on the tropical circulation weakening, and this effect is greatly amplified by radiative feedback, especially that of clouds. In addition, we find that differential heating explains the intermodel differences in tropical circulation response to CO2 forcing in the GCM ensemble of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project.},
annote = {weakened tropical circulation due to differential heating of ascending and subsiding regions},
author = {Xia, Yan and Huang, Yi},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075678},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate feedback,differential heating,radiative forcing },
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {10592--10600},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Differential Radiative Heating Drives Tropical Atmospheric Circulation Weakening}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002{\%}2F2017gl075678},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Xiang2017,
abstract = {Climate; GLOBAL CHANGE: Coupled models of the climate system; HYDROLOGY: Precipitation; ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES: Precipitation, Tropical dynamics},
author = {Xiang, Baoqiang and Zhao, Ming and Held, Isaac M. and Golaz, Jean Christophe},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071992},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5,SST bias,double precipitation asymmetry index,surface heat flux bias},
number = {3},
pages = {1520--1527},
title = {{Predicting the severity of spurious “double ITCZ” problem in CMIP5 coupled models from AMIP simulations}},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Xiao2015,
author = {Xiao, Mingzhong and Zhang, Qiang and Singh, Vijay P.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4228},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {oct},
number = {12},
pages = {3556--3567},
title = {{Influences of ENSO, NAO, IOD and PDO on seasonal precipitation regimes in the Yangtze River basin, China}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4228},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Xiao2018,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. The Colorado River is the primary surface water resource in the rapidly growing U.S. Southwest. Over the period 1916–2014, the Upper Colorado River Basin naturalized streamflow declined by 16.5{\%}, despite the fact that annual precipitation in the UCRB over that period increased slightly (+1.4{\%}). In order to examine the causes of the runoff declines, we performed a set of experiments with the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrology model. Our results show that the pervasive warming has reduced snowpacks and enhanced evapotranspiration over the last 100 years; over half (53{\%}) of the long-term decreasing runoff trend is associated with the general warming. Negative winter precipitation trends have occurred in the handful of highly productive subbasins that account for over half of the streamflow at Lee's Ferry. We also compared a midcentury drought with the (ongoing) post-Millennium Drought and find that whereas the earlier drought was caused primarily by pervasive low-precipitation anomalies across UCRB, higher temperatures have played a large role in the post-Millennium Drought. The post-Millennium Drought has also been exacerbated by negative precipitation anomalies in several of the most productive headwater basins. Finally, we evaluate the UCRB April–July runoff forecast for 2017, which decreased dramatically as the runoff season progressed. We find that while late winter and spring 2017 was anomalously warm, the proximate cause of most of the forecast reduction was anomalous late winter and early spring dryness in UCRB, which followed exceptionally large (positive) early winter precipitation anomalies.},
author = {Xiao, Mu and Udall, Bradley and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
doi = {10.1029/2018WR023153},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {6739--6756},
title = {{On the Causes of Declining Colorado River Streamflows}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018WR023153},
volume = {54},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Xie2016,
author = {Xie, Xiaoning and Wang, Hongli and Liu, Xiaodong and Li, Jiandong and Wang, Zhaosheng and Liu, Yangang},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD024228},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {7026--7040},
title = {{Distinct effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the East Asian summer monsoon between multidecadal strong and weak monsoon stages}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015JD024228},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{xie2018understanding,
author = {Xie, Shaocheng and Lin, Wuyin and Rasch, Philip J and Ma, Po-Lun and Neale, Richard and Larson, Vincent E and Qian, Yun and Bogenschutz, Peter A and Caldwell, Peter and Cameron‐Smith, Philip and Golaz, Jean‐Christophe and Mahajan, Salil and Singh, Balwinder and Tang, Qi and Wang, Hailong and Yoon, Jin‐Ho and Zhang, Kai and Zhang, Yuying},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001350},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {2618--2644},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Understanding Cloud and Convective Characteristics in Version 1 of the E3SM Atmosphere Model}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018MS001350},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Xie2010JClim,
abstract = {Abstract Spatial variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall changes over the tropics are investigated based on ensemble simulations for the first half of the twenty-first century under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario A1B with coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Despite a GHG increase that is nearly uniform in space, pronounced patterns emerge in both SST and precipitation. Regional differences in SST warming can be as large as the tropical-mean warming. Specifically, the tropical Pacific warming features a conspicuous maximum along the equator and a minimum in the southeast subtropics. The former is associated with westerly wind anomalies whereas the latter is linked to intensified southeast trade winds, suggestive of wind–evaporation–SST feedback. There is a tendency for a greater warming in the northern subtropics than in the southern subtropics in accordance ...},
author = {Xie, Shang-Ping and Deser, Clara and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Ma, Jian and Teng, Haiyan and Wittenberg, Andrew T.},
doi = {10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {966--986},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175{\%}2F2009jcli3329.1},
volume = {23},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Xie2015,
abstract = {Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on pro- jections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We con- clude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.},
author = {Xie, Shang-Ping and Deser, Clara and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Collins, Matthew and Delworth, Thomas L. and Hall, Alex and Hawkins, Ed and Johnson, Nathaniel C. and Cassou, Christophe and Giannini, Alessandra and Watanabe, Masahiro},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2689},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {921--930},
title = {{Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2689},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Xie2013,
author = {Xie, Shang-Ping and Lu, Bo and Xiang, Baoqiang},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo1931},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {828--832},
title = {{Similar spatial patterns of climate responses to aerosol and greenhouse gas changes}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1931},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Xu2020,
abstract = {Atmospheric rivers (ARs), as long and narrow bands of strong water vapour transport in the lower troposphere, have drawn increasing scientific attention in recent years. Results from a collaborative project between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and China Meteorological Administration have shown some unique AR characteristics embedded within the Australia–Asian monsoon based on observational analyses. As part of the project, this study focused on assessing the skill of global climate models for simulating ARs in the region under current climate and their projected changes due to global warming. Daily data from 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in their historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 simulations were analysed for the periods of 1981–2005 and 2081–2100 respectively. Compared with results derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-interim reanalysis data, these model ensemble results showed significant seasonal variations of horizontal water vapour transport as observed, but their magnitudes measured by vertically integrated water vapour transport (IVT) were weaker, particularly for the East Asian summer monsoon. Using an objective AR detection algorithm based on 85th percentile IVT magnitude and its geometry, we showed that multi-model-ensemble (MME) averaged AR occurrence agreed well with the results derived from the reanalysis for their spatial distributions and seasonal variations. Under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario, the model ensembles, overall, showed an enhanced water vapour transport, primarily due to increased atmospheric humidity associated with a warmed atmosphere. Consequently, they simulated increased AR frequency and bigger AR size in most of the region, particularly over north and northeast China and southern Australia. However, the MME results showed a reduced AR frequency and size in July/August in southern and eastern part of China and its adjacent waters. We attributed these results to the response of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) to global warming. Our analysis showed that westward expansion of WNPSH lead to the shift of ARs more inland in East Asia. In this case, eastern China was directly under the control of WNPSH, which did not favour AR development and penetration into the region. Our analyses of ARs in the A–A monsoon system offers new insight in understanding potential climate changes in the monsoon region under warmed climate.},
author = {Xu, Ying and Zhang, Huqiang and Liu, Yanju and Han, Zhenyu and Zhou, Botao},
doi = {10.1071/ES19044},
issn = {2206-5865},
journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science},
keywords = {-n monsoon,CMIP5 models,Keywords: Western Pacific Subtropical High.,global warming,moisture transport},
number = {1},
pages = {88},
title = {{Atmospheric rivers in the Australia–Asian region under current and future climate in CMIP5 models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19044 http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=ES19044},
volume = {70},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Xu2013,
author = {Xu, Chenxi and Sano, Masaki and Nakatsuka, Takeshi},
doi = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2013.06.025},
issn = {0031-0182},
journal = {Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology},
keywords = {Asian summer monsoon,El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation events,Fokienia hodginsii,Tree ring cellulose $\delta$18O},
pages = {588--598},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{A 400-year record of hydroclimate variability and local ENSO history in northern Southeast Asia inferred from tree-ring $\delta$18O}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2013.06.025},
volume = {386},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Xu2018b,
abstract = {Abstract. We have constructed a regional tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope ($\delta$18O) record for the northern Indian sub-continent based on two new records from northern India and central Nepal and three published records from northwestern India, western Nepal and Bhutan. The record spans the common interval from 1743 to 2008 CE. Correlation analysis reveals that the record is significantly and negatively correlated with the three regional climatic indices: all India rainfall (AIR; r = −0.5, p},
author = {Xu, Chenxi and Sano, Masaki and Dimri, Ashok Priyadarshan and Ramesh, Rengaswamy and Nakatsuka, Takeshi and Shi, Feng and Guo, Zhengtang},
doi = {10.5194/cp-14-653-2018},
issn = {1814-9332},
journal = {Climate of the Past},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {653--664},
title = {{Decreasing Indian summer monsoon on the northern Indian sub-continent during the last 180 years: evidence from five tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope chronologies}},
url = {https://www.clim-past.net/14/653/2018/},
volume = {14},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Xu2019,
author = {Xu, Chenxi and Buckley, Brendan M. and Promchote, Parichart and Wang, S.‐Y. Simon and Pumijumnong, Nathsuda and An, Wenling and Sano, Masaki and Nakatsuka, Takeshi and Guo, Zhengtang},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081458},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {4863--4872},
title = {{Increased Variability of Thailand's Chao Phraya River Peak Season Flow and Its Association With ENSO Variability: Evidence From Tree Ring $\delta$18O}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081458},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Xu2017a,
author = {Xu, Tianfang and Valocchi, Albert J. and Ye, Ming and Liang, Feng and Lin, Yu-Feng},
doi = {10.1002/2016WR019512},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {3224--3245},
title = {{Bayesian calibration of groundwater models with input data uncertainty}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016WR019512},
volume = {53},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Yamada2016,
abstract = {Pakistan and northwestern India have frequently experienced severe heavy rainfall events during the boreal summer over the last 50 years including an event in late July and early August 2010 due to a sequence of monsoon surges. This study identified five dominant atmospheric patterns by applying principal component analysis and k-means clustering to a long-term sea level pressure dataset from 1979 to 2014. Two of these five dominant atmospheric patterns corresponded with a high frequency of the persistent atmospheric blocking index and positive sea level pressure over western Russia as well as an adjacent meridional trough ahead of northern Pakistan. In these two groups, a negative sea surface temperature anomaly was apparent over the equatorial mid- to eastern Pacific Ocean. The heavy precipitation periods with high persistent blocking frequency in western Russia as in the 2010 heat wave tended to have 1.2 times larger precipitation intensity compared to the whole of the heavy precipitation periods during the 36 years.},
author = {Yamada, Tomohito J. and Takeuchi, Daiki and Farukh, M. A. and Kitano, Yoshikazu},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0445.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate variability,Hydrologic cycle},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {7743--7754},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Climatological characteristics of heavy rainfall in northern Pakistan and atmospheric blocking over western Russia}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article-pdf/29/21/7743/4074123/jcli-d-15-0445{\_}1.pdf},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Yamamoto2016,
author = {Yamamoto, Ayako and Palter, Jaime B.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms10930},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {apr},
number = {1},
pages = {10930},
title = {{The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10930},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Yanagiya2020,
abstract = {Thawing of ice-rich permafrost and subsequent ground subsidence can form characteristic landforms, and the resulting topography they create is collectively called “thermokarst.” The impact of wildfire on thermokarst development remains uncertain. Here, we report on the post-wildfire ground deformation associated with the 2014 wildfire near Batagay, Eastern Siberia. We used Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to generate both long-term (1–4 years) and short-term (subseasonal to seasonal) deformation maps. Based on two independent satellite-based microwave sensors, we could validate the dominance of vertical displacements and their heterogeneous distributions without relying on in situ data. The inferred time series based on L-band ALOS2 InSAR data indicated that the cumulative subsidence at the area of greatest magnitude was greater than 30 cm from October 2015 to June 2019 and that the rate of subsidence slowed in 2018. The burn severity was rather homogeneous, but the cumulative subsidence magnitude was larger on the east-facing slopes where the gullies were also predominantly developed. The correlation suggests that the active layer on the east-facing slopes might have been thinner before the fire. Meanwhile, C-band Sentinel-1 InSAR data with higher temporal resolution showed that the temporal evolution included episodic changes in terms of deformation rate. Moreover, we could unambiguously detect frost heave signals that were enhanced within the burned area during the early freezing season but were absent in the mid-winter. We could reasonably interpret the frost heave signals within a framework of premelting theory instead of assuming a simple freezing and subsequent volume expansion of preexisting pore water.},
author = {Yanagiya, Kazuki and Furuya, Masato},
doi = {10.1029/2019JF005473},
issn = {21699011},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface},
keywords = {ALOS2,InSAR,Premelting dynamics,Sentinel-1,Thermokarst,Wild},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {e2019JF005473},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Post-Wildfire Surface Deformation Near Batagay, Eastern Siberia, Detected by L-Band and C-Band InSAR}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005473},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Yang2018b,
author = {Yang, Shiling and Ding, Zhongli and Feng, Shaohua and Jiang, Wenying and Huang, Xiaofang and Guo, Licheng},
doi = {10.1016/j.jseaes.2017.10.020},
issn = {13679120},
journal = {Journal of Asian Earth Sciences},
month = {apr},
pages = {124--133},
title = {{A strengthened East Asian Summer Monsoon during Pliocene warmth: Evidence from ‘red clay' sediments at Pianguan, northern China}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1367912017305758},
volume = {155},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Yang2018NClim,
abstract = {Climate model projections using offline aridity and/or drought indices predict substantial terrestrial drying over the twenty-first century1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11. However, these same models also predict an increased runoff12,13,14,15. This contradiction has been linked to an absence of vegetation responses to an elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] in offline impact models12,14,16,17. Here we report a close and consistent relationship between changes in surface resistance (rs) and [CO2] across 16 CMIP5 models. Attributing evapotranspiration changes under non-water-limited conditions shows that an increase in evapotranspiration caused by a warming-induced vapour pressure deficit increase18 is almost entirely offset by a decrease in evapotranspiration caused by increased rs driven by rising [CO2]. This indicates that climate models do not actually project increased vegetation water use under an elevated [CO2], which counters the perception that ‘warming leads to drying' in many previous studies1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11. Moreover, we show that the hydrologic information in CMIP5 models can be satisfactorily recovered using an offline hydrologic model that incorporates the [CO2] effect on rs in calculating potential evapotranspiration (EP). This offers an effective, physically-based yet relatively simple way to account for the vegetation response to elevated [CO2] in offline impact models.},
annote = {Evapotransporation increases driven by vapour pressure deficit in a warmer world are almost entirely offset by increased water use efficiency in simulations that account for plant stomatal response to elevated CO2 levels, countering the argument that warming leads to drying.},
author = {Yang, Yuting and Roderick, Michael L. and Zhang, Shulei and McVicar, Tim R. and Donohue, Randall J.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0361-0},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {44--48},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
title = {{Hydrologic implications of vegetation response to elevated CO2 in climate projections}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0361-0},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Yang2019QJRMS,
abstract = {Predicting evaporation from wet surfaces (water, wet soil and canopy surfaces) has long been of major interest in hydrological, meteorological and agricultural communities. In practical applications of the existing models/theories of wet surface evaporation (e.g., the Priestley‐Taylor model), net radiation (Rn) and/or surface temperature (Ts; or near‐surface air temperature) are considered to be independent external forcings that determine the evaporation rate. However, neither Rn nor Ts are independent of evaporation, since Rn directly depends on Ts via the outgoing longwave radiation. In this study, we use monthly data for the global ocean to investigate the relation between radiation, evaporation and surface temperature. We use a new theoretical formulation to show that as Ts increases, a greater fraction of Rn is partitioned to evaporation (i.e., higher evaporative fraction) but Rn declines because of an increase in outgoing longwave radiation. The consequence is that a maximum evaporation rate emerges naturally from that trade‐off. We find that this maximum corresponds to the actual evaporation over global ocean surfaces at both local and global scales. In addition, the maximum in evaporation defines a Ts that corresponds to independent estimates of sea surface temperature. These results suggest that the concept of maximum evaporation reported here is a natural attribute of a wet evaporating surface.},
author = {Yang, Yuting and Roderick, Michael L.},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3481},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {Bowen ratio,Evaporation,Ocean surfaces,Radiation,Surface temperature},
month = {apr},
number = {720},
pages = {1118--1129},
publisher = {Wiley},
title = {{Radiation, surface temperature and evaporation over wet surfaces}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.3481 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.3481},
volume = {145},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Yang2018,
author = {Yang, Song and Li, Zhenning and Yu, Jin-Yi and Hu, Xiaoming and Dong, Wenjie and He, Shan},
doi = {10.1093/nsr/nwy046},
issn = {2095-5138},
journal = {National Science Review},
month = {nov},
number = {6},
pages = {840--857},
title = {{El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation and its impact in the changing climate}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/5/6/840/4975301},
volume = {5},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Yang2018c,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2016 Magnolia Press.Alysicarpus gautalensis, a new species of legume, is described from Maharashtra, India. It differs from A. bupleurifolius in having glabrous branches, elliptic-oblong, obtuse leaves with ciliate margins and trichomes present on both surfaces, lobes of the calyx ciliate, pods 2-6 jointed, moniliform with a foveo-rugulate surface sculpturing.},
author = {Yang, Kai and Wang, Chenghai and Li, Shiyue},
doi = {10.1029/2017JD028260},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {frozen-thawing process,modified parameterizations,simulation improvements,soil temperature and moisture},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {2017JD028260},
title = {{Improved Simulation of Frozen‐Thawing Process in Land Surface Model (CLM4.5)}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2017JD028260},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Yang2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2017. American Geophysical Union.In the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, multimodel ensembles (arithmetic model averaging, AMA) were constructed with equal weights given to Earth system models, without considering the performance of each model at reproducing current conditions. Here we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to construct a weighted model ensemble for runoff projections. Higher weights are given to models with better performance in estimating historical decadal mean runoff. Using the BMA method, we find that by the end of this century, the increase of global runoff (9.8 ± 1.5{\%}) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 is significantly lower than estimated from AMA (12.2 ± 1.3{\%}). BMA presents a less severe runoff increase than AMA at northern high latitudes and a more severe decrease in Amazonia. Runoff decrease in Amazonia is stronger than the intermodel difference. The intermodel difference in runoff changes is mainly caused not only by precipitation differences among models, but also by evapotranspiration differences at the high northern latitudes.},
author = {Yang, Hui and Zhou, Feng and Piao, Shilong and Huang, Mengtian and Chen, Anping and Ciais, Philippe and Li, Yue and Lian, Xu and Peng, Shushi and Zeng, Zhenzhong},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073454},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Bayesian model averaging,Earth system model,future projection,multimodel ensemble change},
number = {11},
pages = {5540--5549},
title = {{Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation}},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Yang2015,
abstract = {Glacial–interglacial changes in the distribution of C 3 /C 4 vegetation on the Chinese Loess Plateau have been related to East Asian summer monsoon intensity and position, and could provide insights into future changes caused by global warming. Here, we present $\delta$ 13 C records of bulk organic matter since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from 21 loess sections across the Loess Plateau. The $\delta$ 13 C values (range: –25‰ to –16‰) increased gradually both from the LGM to the mid-Holocene in each section and from northwest to southeast in each time interval. During the LGM, C 4 biomass increased from {\textless}5{\%} in the northwest to 10–20{\%} in the southeast, while during the mid-Holocene C 4 vegetation increased throughout the Plateau, with estimated biomass increasing from 10{\%} to 20{\%} in the northwest to {\textgreater}40{\%} in the southeast. The spatial pattern of C 4 biomass in both the LGM and the mid-Holocene closely resembles that of modern warm-season precipitation, and thus can serve as a robust analog for the contemporary East Asian summer monsoon rain belt. Using the 10–20{\%} isolines for C 4 biomass in the cold LGM as a reference, we derived a minimum 300-km northwestward migration of the monsoon rain belt for the warm Holocene. Our results strongly support the prediction that Earth's thermal equator will move northward in a warmer world. The southward displacement of the monsoon rain belt and the drying trend observed during the last few decades in northern China will soon reverse as global warming continues.},
author = {Yang, Shiling and Ding, Zhongli and Li, Yangyang and Wang, Xu and Jiang, Wenying and Huang, Xiaofang},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1504688112},
file = {::},
isbn = {1504688112},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {43},
pages = {13178--13183},
title = {{Warming-induced northwestward migration of the East Asian monsoon rain belt from the Last Glacial Maximum to the mid-Holocene}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1504688112},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Yang2020a,
abstract = {Abstract An abundance of evidence indicates that the tropics are expanding. Despite many attempts to decipher the cause, the underlying dynamical mechanism driving tropical expansion is still not entirely clear. Here, based on observations, multimodel simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and purposefully designed numerical experiments, the variations and trends of the tropical width are explored from a regional perspective. We find that the width of the tropics closely follows the displacement of oceanic midlatitude meridional temperature gradients (MMTG). Under global warming, as a first-order response, the subtropical ocean experiences more surface warming because of the mean Ekman convergence of anomalously warm water. The enhanced subtropical warming, which is partially independent of natural climate oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, leads to poleward advance of the MMTG and drives the tropical expansion. Our results, supported by both observations and model simulations, imply that global warming may have already significantly contributed to the ongoing tropical expansion, especially over the ocean-dominant Southern Hemisphere.},
author = {Yang, Hu and Lohmann, Gerrit and Lu, Jian and Gowan, Evan J and Shi, Xiaoxu and Liu, Jiping and Wang, Qiang},
doi = {10.1029/2020JD033158},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Global Warming,Jet Stream,Mid-latitude Temperature Gradients,Ocean Circulation,Storm Track,Tropical Expansion},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {e2020JD033158},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Tropical Expansion Driven by Poleward Advancing Midlatitude Meridional Temperature Gradients}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033158},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Yang2016g,
abstract = {Understanding how tropical rainforests respond to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) is essential for predicting Earth's carbon, water, and energy budgets under future climate change. Here we use long-term (1982–2010) precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) measurements to infer runoff coefficient (Q/P) and evapotranspiration (E) trends across 18 unimpaired tropical rainforest catchments. We complement that analysis by using satellite observations coupled with ecosystem process modeling (using both “top-down” and “bottom-up” perspectives) to examine trends in carbon uptake and relate that to the observed changes in Q/P and E. Our results show there have been only minor changes in the satellite-observed canopy leaf area over 1982–2010, suggesting that eCO2 has not increased vegetation leaf area in tropical rainforests and therefore any plant response to eCO2 occurs at the leaf level. Meanwhile, observed Q/P and E also remained relatively constant in the 18 catchments, implying an unchanged hydrological partitioning and thus approximately conserved transpiration under eCO2. For the same period, using a top-down model based on gas exchange theory, we predict increases in plant assimilation (A) and light use efficiency ($\epsilon$) at the leaf level under eCO2, the magnitude of which is essentially that of eCO2 (i.e., {\~{}}12{\%} over 1982–2010). Simulations from 10 state-of-the-art bottom-up ecosystem models over the same catchments also show that the direct effect of eCO2 is to mostly increase A and $\epsilon$ with little impact on E. Our findings add to the current limited pool of knowledge regarding the long-term eCO2 impacts in tropical rainforests.},
author = {Yang, Yuting and Donohue, Randall J. and McVicar, Tim R. and Roderick, Michael L. and Beck, Hylke E.},
doi = {10.1002/2016JG003475},
issn = {2169-8953},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences},
keywords = {CO2 fertilization,assimilation,hydrological partitioning,transpiration,tropical rainforests,water use efficiency},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {2125--2140},
title = {{Long‐term CO2 fertilization increases vegetation productivity and has little effect on hydrological partitioning in tropical rainforests}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JG003475},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Yang2020b,
abstract = {The third version of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) Earth System Model (NESM3.0) has been recently developed for sub-seasonal to seasonal climate prediction and projection of future climate change. This requires realistic simulation of both internal modes of climate variability and global energy balance and climate sensitivity. In the historical experiments based on the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) forcings, the original version of NESM3.0 does a reasonably good job in capturing warming trends and climate sensitivity to external forcing, but not in simulating climatology and climate variability. For our project we modified the deep and shallow convective scheme, cloud cover, and cloud microphysics in the atmospheric model. We then conducted hundreds of experiments to test the results in the fully coupled model with comprehensive metrics to ensure that any individual targeted improvement does not affect the overall performance. The modifications in moist physics improved the model's climatology and internal variability significantly without degrading global energy balance and climate sensitivity. The key was to reduce the model's warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias and associated excessive precipitation bias in the tropics by reducing convective precipitation and increasing large-scale stable precipitation. This effort leads to more realistic simulation of the zonal mean circulation and temperature structure, global monsoon, and ocean salinity. The El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulation was improved by reducing wind stress biases associated with ENSO in the central and eastern Pacific. Better ENSO leads to bet-ter teleconnection in mid-latitudes, particularly over the North Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. The eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was significantly improved by enhancing the interaction between the boundary layer and lower tropospheric heating. These results suggest that improvement in moist physical parameterizations is an effective way to improve simulation of climatology and major modes of internal variability without degrading the global energy balance and climate sensitivity in the historical run.},
author = {Yang, Young-Min and Wang, Bin and Cao, Jian and Ma, Libin and Li, Juan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05209-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {3819--3840},
title = {{Improved historical simulation by enhancing moist physical parameterizations in the climate system model NESM3.0}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05209-2},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Yang2017d,
abstract = {Annual precipitation anomalies over eastern China are characterized by a north–south dipole pattern, referred to as the “southern flooding and northern drought” pattern (SF/ND), fluctuating on decadal time scales. Previous research has suggested possible links with oceanic forcing, but the underlying physical mechanisms by which sea surface temperature (SST) variability impacts the dipole pattern remains unclear. Idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments conducted by the U.S. CLIVAR Drought Working Group are used to investigate the role of historical SST anomalies associated with Pacific El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) patterns in this dipole pattern. The results show that the Pacific SST pattern plays a dominant role in driving the decadal variability of this dipole pattern and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies, whereas the Atlantic SST pattern contributes to a much lesser degree. The direct atmospheric response to the Pacific SST pattern is a large-scale cyclonic or anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere occupying the entire northern North Pacific. During the warm phase of the Pacific SST pattern, it is cyclonic with northwesterly wind anomalies over northern China pushing the monsoon front to the south and consequently SF/ND. During the cold phase of the Pacific SST pattern, the circulation anomaly reverses with southeasterly winds over northern China allowing the monsoon front and the associated rainband to migrate northward, resulting in southern drought and northern flooding. The Atlantic SST pattern plays a supplementary role, enhancing the dipole pattern when the Pacific SST and Atlantic SST patterns are in opposite phases and weakening it when the phases are the same.},
author = {Yang, Qing and Ma, Zhuguo and Fan, Xingang and Yang, Zong-Liang and Xu, Zhongfeng and Wu, Peili},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0793.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {7017--7033},
title = {{Decadal Modulation of Precipitation Patterns over Eastern China by Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0793.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Yang2019b,
abstract = {It has been a great challenge for global weather and climate models to simulate realistic Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) while keeping global energy and water balance unaffected. This work demonstrates that, in the Nanjing University of Infor-mation Science and Technology Earth System Model, enhanced boundary layer (BL) convergence feedback to the lower tropospheric heating in both the modified Tidtke (TDK) and relaxed Arakawa–Schubert (RAS) convective schemes have sig-nificantly improved the quality of MJO simulation in terms of both the eastward propagation and three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamic structures. The modifications to the TDK and RAS schemes include (a) a BL depth-dependent convective inhibition, and (b) a bottom-heavy diffusivity in the shallow convection scheme. To understand how these modifications improved the MJO simulation, we applied dynamics-oriented diagnostics to reveal the critical role of the interaction between the lower-tropospheric heating and the BL convergence. The modified schemes enhance the lower-tropospheric diabatic heating to the east of the MJO convective center, which leads to increased Kelvin wave easterly winds. The strengthened MJO easterly winds reinforce the BL moisture convergence to the east of the MJO center and therefore result in increased upward transports of moisture and heat from the BL to the free atmosphere, which further moisten and destabilize the lower troposphere and thereby increase the lower-tropospheric heating. The positive feedback between the BL convergence and lower tropospheric heating improves MJO eddy available potential energy generation to the east of major convection and promotes MJO eastward propagation. The results indicate that correct simulation of the heating induced by shallow and/or congestus clouds and its interaction with BL dynamics is critical for realistic simulation of the MJO as suggested by the trio-interaction theory.},
author = {Yang, Young-Min and Wang, Bin},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4407-9},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {4671--4693},
title = {{Improving MJO simulation by enhancing the interaction between boundary layer convergence and lower tropospheric heating}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4407-9},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Yao2017a,
abstract = {Simulating the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rain belt has been proven challenging for climate models. In this study, the impacts of high resolution to the simulation of spatial distributions and rainfall intensity of the EASM rain belt are revealed based on Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. A set of sensitivity experiments is further performed to eliminate the potential influences of differences among CMIP5 models. The results show that the high-resolution models improve the intensity and the spatial pattern of the EASM rainfall compared to the low-resolution models, further valid in the sensitivity experiments. The diagnosis of moist static energy (MSE) balance and moisture budgets is further performed to understand the mechanisms underlying the enhancements. Both analyses indicate that the improved EASM rainfall benefits from the intensified meridional convergence along the EASM rain belt simulated by the high-resolution models. In addition, such convergence is mainly contributed by intensified stationary meridional eddy northerly flows over the central northern areas of China and southerly flows over the south of Japan due to increased model resolution, which is robust in the sensitivity experiments. Further analysis indicates that the stationary meridional eddy flow changes in high-resolution simulations are related to the barotropic Rossby wave downstream of the Tibetan Plateau resulting from increased resolution.},
author = {Yao, Junchen and Zhou, Tianjun and Guo, Zhun and Chen, Xiaolong and Zou, Liwei and Sun, Yong},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0372.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate models,General circulation models,Model evaluation/performance,Moisture/moisture budget,Monsoons,Precipitation},
number = {21},
pages = {8825--8840},
title = {{Improved performance of high-resolution atmospheric models in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon rain belt}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ye2017,
abstract = {Convective precipitation—localized, short-lived, intense, and sometimes violent—is at the root of challenges associated with observation, simulation, and prediction of precipitation. The understanding of long-term changes in convective precipitation characteristics and their role in precipitation extremes and intensity over extratropical regions are imperative to future water resource management; however, they have been studied very little. We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4{\%}/°C, of which 16{\%} is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4{\%} is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4{\%}/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.},
author = {Ye, Hengchun and Fetzer, Eric J. and Wong, Sun and Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1600944},
issn = {23752548},
journal = {Science Advances},
number = {1},
pages = {1--8},
title = {{Rapid decadal convective precipitation increase over Eurasia during the last three decades of the 20th century}},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Yeager2018,
author = {Yeager, S. G. and Danabasoglu, G. and Rosenbloom, N. A. and Strand, W. and Bates, S. C. and Meehl, G. A. and Karspeck, A. R. and Lindsay, K. and Long, M. C. and Teng, H. and Lovenduski, N. S.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0098.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1867--1886},
title = {{Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0098.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Yettella2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin HeidelbergThe extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016–2035) than in the far-future (2081–2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95{\%} of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.},
author = {Yettella, Vineel and Kay, Jennifer E.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3410-2},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate variability,Extratropical cyclones,Initial condition ensembles,Precipitation,Storm tracks},
number = {5},
pages = {1765--1781},
title = {{How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble}},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Yim2017,
abstract = {Strengthening or weakening of the Walker circulation can highly influence the global weather and climate variability by altering the location and strength of tropical heating. Therefore, there is considerable interest in understanding the mechanisms that lead to the trends in the Walker circulation intensity. Conventional wisdom indicates that a strengthening or weakening of the Walker circulation is primarily controlled by inhomogeneous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns across the tropical Pacific basin. However, we show that Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project climate model simulations with identical SST forcing have different Walker circulation trends that can be linked to differences in land surface temperatures. More prominently, stronger land-sea thermal contrast leads to increases in the precipitation in South America as well as the sea level pressure in the eastern tropical Pacific through a local circulation, resulting in a strengthening of the Walker circulation trend. This implies that correctly simulating the land temperature in atmospheric models is crucial to simulating the intensity of the Walker circulation in the present climate as well as its future change.},
author = {Yim, Bo Young and Yeh, Sang Wook and Song, Hwan Jin and Dommenget, Dietmar and Sohn, B. J.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073778},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {AMIP climate models,Walker circulation,land-sea thermal contrast,sea surface temperature},
number = {11},
pages = {5854--5862},
title = {{Land–sea thermal contrast determines the trend of Walker circulation simulated in atmospheric general circulation models}},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Yin2018NComms,
abstract = {Weather extremes have widespread harmful impacts on ecosystems and human communities with more deaths and economic losses from flash floods than any other severe weather-related hazards. Flash floods attributed to storm runoff extremes are projected to become more frequent and damaging globally due to a warming climate and anthropogenic changes, but previous studies have not examined the response of these storm runoff extremes to naturally and anthropogenically driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. Here we show that storm runoff extremes increase in most regions at rates higher than suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, which are systematically close to or exceed those of precipitation extremes over most regions of the globe, accompanied by large spatial and decadal variability. These results suggest that current projected response of storm runoff extremes to climate and anthropogenic changes may be underestimated, posing large threats for ecosystem and community resilience under future warming conditions.},
annote = {An observed increase in daily runoff extremes greater or equal to precipitation extremes and above Clausius-Clapeyron scaling are found over most regions of the globe suggesting projections in storm runoff may be underestimated although there is low confidence in this due to the large spatial and decadal variability in the results.},
author = {Yin, Jiabo and Gentine, Pierre and Zhou, Sha and Sullivan, Sylvia C. and Wang, Ren and Zhang, Yao and Guo, Shenglian},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-06765-2},
isbn = {2041-1723},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Climate change,Hydrology,Natural hazards},
month = {oct},
number = {1},
pages = {4389},
publisher = {Springer Nature America, Inc},
title = {{Large increase in global storm runoff extremes driven by climate and anthropogenic changes}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06765-2},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Yin2014,
author = {Yin, Lei and Fu, Rong and Zhang, Yong-Fei and Arias, Paola A. and Fernando, D. Nelun and Li, Wenhong and Fernandes, Katia and Bowerman, Adam R.},
doi = {10.1002/2013JD021349},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2314--2328},
title = {{What controls the interannual variation of the wet season onsets over the Amazon?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013JD021349},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@incollection{yoth17,
address = {Singapore},
author = {Yoden, S and Otsuka, S and Trilaksono, N J and Hadi, T W},
booktitle = {The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast (3rd Edition)},
doi = {10.1142/9789813200913_0006},
editor = {Chang, Chih-Pei and Kuo, Hung-Chi and Lau, Ngar-Cheung and Johnson, Richard H and Wang, Bin and Wheeler, Matthew C},
pages = {63--77},
publisher = {World Scientific},
title = {{Recent progress in research on the Maritime Continent Monsoon}},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Yoshida2014,
author = {Yoshida, Ryuji and Kajikawa, Yoshiyuki and Ishikawa, Hirohiko},
doi = {10.2151/sola.2014-004},
issn = {1349-6476},
journal = {SOLA},
pages = {15--18},
title = {{Impact of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Environment of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific}},
url = {http://jlc.jst.go.jp/DN/JST.JSTAGE/sola/2014-004?lang=en{\&}from=CrossRef{\&}type=abstract},
volume = {10},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Yu2018,
author = {Yu, Tianlei and Guo, Pinwen and Cheng, Jun and Hu, Aixue and Lin, Pengfei and Yu, Yongqiang},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4121-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {nov},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3943--3955},
title = {{Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4121-7},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Yu2007,
author = {Yu, Rucong and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.1175/2007JCLI1559.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {5344--5355},
title = {{Seasonality and Three-Dimensional Structure of Interdecadal Change in the East Asian Monsoon}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2007JCLI1559.1},
volume = {20},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Yu2019b,
abstract = {Coastal aquifers are vulnerable to seawater intrusion due to excessive groundwater pumping. Most research on salinization vulnerability considers homogeneous aquifers, forming the basis of management guidance. However, geologic structure can be highly heterogeneous, with preferential flow paths and low-permeability barriers that complicate flow and salt transport processes under pumping conditions. Here we use a series of variable-density groundwater flow and salt transport models with geostatistical representations of heterogeneity to illustrate characteristics of vulnerability in heterogeneous and homogeneous aquifers. Simulations showed that in homogeneous aquifers, salinization patterns were simple and related only to the hydraulic properties. In heterogeneous aquifers, salinization rates and patterns were much more complicated, and related to pumping location and depth, aquifer geometry, and geologic connections between pumping location, landward boundaries, and saline groundwater. An intrusion configuration typology approach was developed for both homogeneous and heterogeneous aquifers. The configuration approach was applied to heterogeneous aquifers of low, medium, and high geologic continuity, and vulnerability was assessed. The probability-based assessment was able to characterize the impact of pumping locations and rates in heterogeneous aquifers, considering different types of intrusion. The results showed that groundwater vulnerability to salinization was sensitive to pumping distance to the coastline for low-continuity aquifers and to pumping depth for high-continuity aquifers. The analysis provides new insights into the relationship between land-sea geologic connections and seawater intrusion vulnerability. The configuration approach plus probability-based assessment can be a starting point for large-scale aquifer characterization and more sophisticated groundwater management, including vulnerability assessment and optimization of pumping location, depth, and rate.},
author = {Yu, X. and Michael, H. A.},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.04.013},
issn = {0309-1708},
journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
keywords = {Coastal water resources,Geostatistics,Groundwater,Heterogeneity,Saltwater intrusion,Vulnerability},
pages = {117--128},
title = {{Mechanisms, configuration typology, and vulnerability of pumping-induced seawater intrusion in heterogeneous aquifers}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030917081830959X},
volume = {128},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Yu:2015,
abstract = {Drought persistence in West African Sahel has often been explained as an effect of positive vegetation-atmosphere feedback associated with surface albedo or the partitioning of solar radiation into sensible and latent heat fluxes. An often overlooked aspect of land-atmosphere coupling results from vegetation controls on dust emissions and the ability of mineral aerosols to suppress precipitation. Here we first consider the case of local (endogenous) dynamics within the Sahel, whereby enhanced dust emissions resulting from a decrease in vegetation partly suppress precipitation, thereby further reducing vegetation cover. We then account for teleconnections between Sahel precipitation and exogenous (i.e., Saharan) dust emissions due to an increase in Saharan wind speed in years of above average Sahel precipitation. We find that in both cases vegetation-climate dynamics may have two stable states, one with low precipitation and high concentration of atmospheric dust and the other with high precipitation and lower levels of atmospheric dust. {\textcopyright} 2015 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Yu, Kailiang and D'Odorico, Paolo and Bhattachan, Abinash and Okin, Gregory S. and Evan, Amato T.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL065533},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Saharan,Sahel,dust emissions,precipitation,vegetation},
number = {18},
pages = {7563--7571},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Dust-rainfall feedback in West African Sahel}},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Yuan2018,
abstract = {Abstract The prediction of terrestrial hydrology at the decadal scale is critical for managing water resources in the face of climate change. Here we conducted an assessment by global land model simulations following the design of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) decadal hindcast experiments, specifically testing for the sensitivity to perfect initial or boundary conditions. The memory for terrestrial water storage (TWS) is longer than 6 years over 11{\%} of global land areas where the deep soil moisture and aquifer water have a long memory and a nonnegligible variability. Ensemble decadal predictions based on realistic initial conditions are skillful over 31{\%}, 43{\%}, and 59{\%} of global land areas for TWS, deep soil moisture, and aquifer water, respectively. The fraction of skillful predictions for TWS increases by 10{\%}?16{\%} when conditioned on Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices. This study provides a first look at decadal hydrological predictability, with an improved skill when incorporating low?frequency climate information.},
author = {Yuan, Xing and Zhu, Enda},
doi = {10.1002/2018GL077211},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CLM,ESP,decadal prediction,land surface model,predictability,terrestrial water storage},
number = {5},
pages = {2362--2369},
title = {{A First Look at Decadal Hydrological Predictability by Land Surface Ensemble Simulations}},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Yuan2019,
abstract = {Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a critical variable in determining plant photosynthesis. Synthesis of four global climate datasets reveals a sharp increase of VPD after the late 1990s. In response, the vegetation greening trend indicated by a satellite-derived vegetation index (GIMMS3g), which was evident before the late 1990s, was subsequently stalled or reversed. Terrestrial gross primary production derived from two satellite-based models (revised EC-LUE and MODIS) exhibits persistent and widespread decreases after the late 1990s due to increased VPD, which offset the positive CO2 fertilization effect. Six Earth system models have consistently projected continuous increases of VPD throughout the current century. Our results highlight that the impacts of VPD on vegetation growth should be adequately considered to assess ecosystem responses to future climate conditions.},
author = {Yuan, Wenping and Zheng, Yi and Piao, Shilong and Ciais, Philippe and Lombardozzi, Danica and Wang, Yingping and Ryu, Youngryel and Chen, Guixing and Dong, Wenjie and Hu, Zhongming and Jain, Atul K. and Jiang, Chongya and Kato, Etsushi and Li, Shihua and Lienert, Sebastian and Liu, Shuguang and Nabel, Julia E.M.S. and Qin, Zhangcai and Quine, Timothy and Sitch, Stephen and Smith, William K. and Wang, Fan and Wu, Chaoyang and Xiao, Zhiqiang and Yang, Song},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aax1396},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {eaax1396},
pmid = {31453338},
title = {{Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aax1396},
volume = {5},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Yuan2015a,
abstract = {The linkage between climate change and increased frequency/magnitude of weather extremes remains an open question in the scientific field. Here we investigate such a dynamical linkage by focusing on an amplification trend of the northern subtropical stationary waves found in recent decades. Specifically, we show that in multiple modern reanalysis products, a robust positive trend exists in a wave amplitude index defined through the summer-mean tropospheric stream function field. Pronounced changes in the subtropical atmospheric circulation accompany this wave amplification, including an intensified South Asian monsoon and strengthened subtropical highs over the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. Through modifying the characteristics of large-scale moisture transport, these circulation changes are coupled to changes in the regional precipitation amount and the occurrence of water extremes including both droughts and heavy rainfall events. Given this connection, amplified stationary waves have likely contributed to the elevated occurrence probabilities of droughts in the central United States, Mexico, Japan, and northern China, as well as those of heavy rainfall events in South Asia, southeastern China, and the eastern United States. These results suggest that as climate warming continues, the amplification of subtropical stationary waves will increase the risk of water extremes over the above-mentioned regions.},
author = {Yuan, Jiacan and Li, Wenhong and Deng, Yi},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104009},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {drought,heavy rainfall,moisture flux,precipitation,subtropical weather extremes},
number = {10},
pages = {104009},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Amplified subtropical stationary waves in boreal summer and their implications for regional water extremes}},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{ycllmcp18,
abstract = {Land use change (LUC) is among the main anthropogenic disturbances in the global carbon cycle. Here we present the model developments in a global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 for a more realistic representation of LUC processes. First, we included gross land use change (primarily shifting cultivation) and forest wood harvest in addition to net land use change. Second, we included sub-grid evenly aged land cohorts to represent secondary forests and to keep track of the transient stage of agricultural lands since LUC. Combination of these two features allows the simulation of shifting cultivation with a rotation length involving mainly secondary forests instead of primary ones. Furthermore, a set of decision rules regarding the land cohorts to be targeted in different LUC processes have been implemented. Idealized site-scale simulation has been performed for miombo woodlands in southern Africa assuming an annual land turnover rate of 5 {\%} grid cell area between forest and cropland. The result shows that the model can correctly represent forest recovery and cohort aging arising from agricultural abandonment. Such a land turnover process, even though without a net change in land cover, yields carbon emissions largely due to the imbalance between the fast release from forest clearing and the slow uptake from agricultural abandonment. The simulation with sub-grid land cohorts gives lower emissions than without, mainly because the cleared secondary forests have a lower biomass carbon stock than the mature forests that are otherwise cleared when sub-grid land cohorts are not considered. Over the region of southern Africa, the model is able to account for changes in different forest cohort areas along with the historical changes in different LUC activities, including regrowth of old forests when LUC area decreases. Our developments provide possibilities to account for continental or global forest demographic change resulting from past anthropogenic and natural disturbances.},
author = {Yue, Chao and Ciais, Philippe and Luyssaert, Sebastiaan and Li, Wei and McGrath, Matthew J and Chang, Jinfeng and Peng, Shushi},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-409-2018},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {409--428},
title = {{Representing anthropogenic gross land use change, wood harvest, and forest age dynamics in a global vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-409-2018 https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/11/409/2018/},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zahn2013,
abstract = {Changing properties of the landward moisture transports play a key role in assessing water availability in a warmed future world. Here the ocean-land moisture transports and their projected changes in a warmed atmosphere are investigated using high space and time resolution ECHAM5-model data representative for the current and future atmosphere. The water budgets are estimated from four-times daily instantaneous moisture transports across the shore-lines marking the boundaries of the land areas and from accumulated precipitation-evaporation over land. The transports are presented in very high detail with vertical profiles for each boundary segment. The results indicate land- and seaward moisture transports to intensify with warming. Generally, the landward transports increase stronger than the seaward transports resulting in increased moisture budgets too. This means a higher future average availability of water for land areas. Comparison of the budgets from moisture transports and precipitation-evaporation reveals a systematic bias. This has been linked to numerical issues in previous studies, but we here show that it is connected to the high variability over the diurnal cycle and the maxima of landward transports are likely not considered for many of the regions.},
author = {Zahn, Matthias and Allan, Richard P.},
doi = {10.1002/2012WR013209},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {ECHAM5 model,climate change,future climate,hydrological cycle,landward  water budget},
number = {11},
pages = {7266--7277},
title = {{Quantifying present and projected future atmospheric moisture transports onto land}},
url = {http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2{\&}SrcAuth=ORCID{\&}SrcApp=OrcidOrg{\&}DestLinkType=FullRecord{\&}DestApp=WOS{\_}CPL{\&}KeyUT=WOS:000328683800007{\&}KeyUID=WOS:000328683800007},
volume = {49},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Zambri2017,
abstract = {Room temperature optical constants of plastic materials have been measured over the 50-350-cm(-1) spectral range. The materials reported include high density polyethylene, TPX, Aclar, Kapton, Surlyn, and Mylar. All except TPX are available in sheet form and exhibit birefringence as a consequence of stretching during the manufacturing process. Only the average of the two sets of optical constants is reported for each material. The refractive index was calculated from the channeled spectrum as observed in reflection from the sample, while the absorption coefficient was determined, in all cases but polyethylene, from a transmission measurement.},
author = {Zambri, Brian and LeGrande, Allegra N. and Robock, Alan and Slawinska, Joanna},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD026728},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = {15},
pages = {7971--7989},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere winter warming and summer monsoon reduction after volcanic eruptions over the last millennium}},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zambri2016,
abstract = {Though previous studies have shown that state-of-the-art climate models are rather imperfect in their simulations of the climate response to large volcanic eruptions, the results depend on how the analyses were done. Observations show that all recent large tropical eruptions were followed by winter warming in the first Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter after the eruption, with little such response in the second winter, yet a number of the evaluations have combined the first and second winters. We have looked at just the first winter after large eruptions since 1850 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 historical simulations and find that most models do produce a winter warming signal, with warmer temperatures over NH continents and a stronger polar vortex in the lower stratosphere. We also examined NH summer precipitation responses in the first year after these large volcanic eruptions and find clear reductions of summer monsoon rainfall.},
author = {Zambri, Brian and Robock, Alan},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL070460},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {10920--10928},
title = {{Winter warming and summer monsoon reduction after volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL070460},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zamrane2016a,
abstract = {The aim of this study is to understand the inter-annual hydrological variability (precipitation and streamflow) in the basins of the High Atlas in Morocco and to determine how climate fluctuations (represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climate index) are expressed in the hydrological system. To reach this objective, time series of precipitation and streamflow are processed as standardized anomalies and studied by continuous wavelet analysis and wavelet coherence analysis, which are particularly suitable for the study of unsteady processes. Wet and dry periods vary from one basin to another between three and five years. The wavelet analysis shows the existence of many bands of energy in most of the sub-basins, from annual to inter-annual scales regarding the precipitation and streamflow time series. These bands correspond to intervals of one year, 2–4 years, 4–8 years and 8–12 years. The wavelet coherence analysis shows a strong coherence between NAO/streamflow and precipitation/NAO identified at the inter-annual scale. Non-stationarity can be observed in the late 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. The contribution of the NAO is different from one basin to another ranging between 67{\%} and 77{\%}.},
author = {Zamrane, Zineb and Turki, Imen and Laignel, Benoit and Mah{\'{e}}, Gil and Laftouhi, Nour-Eddine},
doi = {10.3390/atmos7060084},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {84},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Characterization of the Interannual Variability of Precipitation and Streamflow in Tensift and Ksob Basins (Morocco) and Links with the NAO}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/7/6/84},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zanardo2019GRL,
abstract = {The space‐time structure of flood losses is arguably related to large‐scale climatic patterns; however, this interconnection is not always well understood. Here we show that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) correlates with the occurrence of catastrophic floods across Europe and the associated economic losses. The analysis reveals that in Northern Europe the majority of historic winter floods occurred during a positive NAO state, whereas the majority of summer floods occurred during a negative state. Analogous, but stronger, patterns can be observed in individual Atlantic countries. Through the application of a state‐of‐the‐art catastrophe model, we find that there is a statistically significant relationship between the NAO and flood losses. Critically, we observe that the average flood loss during opposite NAO states can differ by up to 50{\%}. These results can inform financial preparedness and disaster fund allocation, as stakeholders, such as governments and insurance companies, can distribute resources more effectively. Plain Language Summary Increasing flood exposure and alarming climate change scenarios are responsible for growing concerns about economic losses from future floods. While it is well known that large‐scale climatic patterns control meteorological events, it is not always clear whether this connection can be extended to the occurrence of flood events and the associated losses. In this study, based on the analysis of recent flood databases and the application of a catastrophe model, we show that there is indeed a significant relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and flood losses. The use of a model allows to quantify the impact of the NAO on flood losses and to show that average flood losses vary significantly across opposite NAO states. The study shows that the NAO index constitutes a meaningful predictor for long‐term average losses. In particular, based on recent development in NAO predictability, we argue that temporal variability of flood risk, due to climatic oscillations, can be predicted in advance, allowing for mitigation measures to take place sooner and enhance resiliency to flood hazard.},
annote = {Catastrophic floods across Europe and the associated economic losses correlated with NAO (combined observations and modelling) with the majority of historic floods in northern Europe during a positive phase while the majority of summer floods occurred during a negative phase.},
author = {Zanardo, Stefano and Nicotina, Ludovico and Hilberts, Arno G. J. and Jewson, Stephen P.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL081956},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate,Flood,Hazard,NAO,Risk},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2563--2572},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Modulation of Economic Losses From European Floods by the North Atlantic Oscillation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2019GL081956 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL081956},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zappa2014,
abstract = {The relationship between biases in Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric blocking frequency and extratropical cyclone track density is investigated in 12 CMIP5 climate models to identify mechanisms underlying climate model biases and inform future model development. Biases in the Greenland blocking and summer Pacific blocking frequencies are associated with biases in the storm track latitudes, while biases in winter European blocking frequency are related to the North Atlantic storm track tilt and Mediterranean cyclone density. However, biases in summer European and winter Pacific blocking appear less related with cyclone track density. Furthermore, the models with smaller biases in winter European blocking frequency have smaller biases in the cyclone density in Europe, which suggests that they are different aspects of the same bias. This is not found elsewhere in the NH. The summer North Atlantic and the North Pacific mean CMIP5 track density and blocking biases might therefore have different origins.},
author = {Zappa, G. and Masato, G. and Shaffrey, L. and Woollings, T. and Hodges, K.},
doi = {10.1002/2013GL058480},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {135--139},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Linking Northern Hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013GL058480},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Zappa2015,
abstract = {The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change$\backslash$n``hot-spot{\{}''{\}} due to a projected reduction in precipitation and fresh$\backslash$nwater availability which has potentially large socio-economic impacts.$\backslash$nTo increase confidence in these projections, it is important to$\backslash$nphysically understand how this precipitation reduction occurs. This$\backslash$nstudy quantifies the impact on winter Mediterranean precipitation due to$\backslash$nchanges in extratropical cyclones in 17 CMIP5 climate models. In each$\backslash$nmodel, the extratropical cyclones are objectively tracked and a simple$\backslash$napproach is applied to identify the precipitation associated to each$\backslash$ncyclone. This allows us to decompose the Mediterranean precipitation$\backslash$nreduction into a contribution due to changes in the number of cyclones$\backslash$nand a contribution due to changes in the amount of precipitation$\backslash$ngenerated by each cyclone. The results show that the projected$\backslash$nMediterranean precipitation reduction in winter is strongly related to a$\backslash$ndecrease in the number of Mediterranean cyclones. However, the$\backslash$ncontribution from changes in the amount of precipitation generated by$\backslash$neach cyclone are also locally important: in the East Mediterranean they$\backslash$namplify the precipitation trend due to the reduction in the number of$\backslash$ncyclones, while in the North Mediterranean they compensate for it. Some$\backslash$nof the processes that determine the opposing cyclone precipitation$\backslash$nintensity responses in the North and East Mediterranean regions are$\backslash$ninvestigated by exploring the CMIP5 inter-model spread.},
author = {Zappa, Giuseppe and Hawcroft, Matthew K. and Shaffrey, Len and Black, Emily and Brayshaw, David J.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CMIP5,Extratropical cyclones,Mediterranean climate,Precipitation projections},
month = {oct},
number = {7-8},
pages = {1727--1738},
title = {{Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Zappa2017b,
abstract = {There is increasing interest in understanding the regional impacts of different global warming targets. However, several regional climate impacts depend on the atmospheric circulation, whose response to climate change remains substantially uncertain and not interpretable in a probabilistic sense in multimodel ensemble projections. To account for these uncertainties, a novel approach where regional climate change is analyzed as a function of carbon emissions conditional on plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation change is here presented and applied to the CMIP5 models' future projections. The different storylines are determined based on the response in three remote drivers of regional circulation: the tropical and polar amplification of global warming and changes in stratospheric vortex strength. As an illustration of this approach, it is shown that the severity of the projected wintertime Mediterranean precipitation decline and central European windiness increase strongly depends on the storyline of circulation change. For a given magnitude of global warming, the highest impact storyline for these aspects of European climate is found for a high tropical amplification and a strengthening of the vortex. The difference in the precipitation and wind responses between the storylines is substantial and equivalent to the contribution from several degrees of global warming. Improving the understanding of the remote driver responses is thus needed to better bound the projected regional impacts in the European sector. The value of these storylines to represent the uncertainty in regional climate projections and to inform the selection of CMIP5 models in regional climate impact studies is discussed.},
author = {Zappa, Giuseppe and Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0807.1},
isbn = {2070210030},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric Climate change,Climate models,Europe,Extratropics,Regression analysis},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {6561--6577},
pmid = {23361196},
title = {{Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0807.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zappa18GRL,
abstract = {{\textcopyright}2018. The Authors. Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO 2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January–March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.},
author = {Zappa, G. and Pithan, F. and Shepherd, T. G.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076096},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Arctic sea ice loss,CMIP5,atmospheric circulation,climate change},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {1011--1019},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076096 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL076096 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL076096},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zappa2020a,
abstract = {One of the most impactful aspects of climate change is the potential change in water availability. Large populations live in Mediterranean-like regions—so-called because they receive most of their precipitation in winter and experience dry, hot summers—which are highly vulnerable to water stress. It is generally assumed that changes in water availability are proportional to global warming. In this study, we show that this is not the case for Mediterranean-like regions, because of the strong influence of changing patterns of atmospheric circulation induced by patterns of sea-surface-temperature changes. In the Mediterranean itself and in Chile, the projected drying is substantially accelerated relative to global warming, whereas in California, the projected moistening is substantially delayed.Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions affect precipitation worldwide. The response is commonly described by two timescales linked to different processes: a rapid adjustment to radiative forcing, followed by a slower response to surface warming. However, additional timescales exist in the surface-warming response, tied to the time evolution of the sea-surface-temperature (SST) response. Here, we show that in climate model projections, the rapid adjustment and surface mean warming are insufficient to explain the time evolution of the hydro-climate response in three key Mediterranean-like areas—namely, California, Chile, and the Mediterranean. The time evolution of those responses critically depends on distinct shifts in the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the existence of distinct fast and slow SST warming patterns. As a result, Mediterranean and Chilean drying are in quasiequilibrium with GHG concentrations, meaning that the drying will not continue after GHG concentrations are stabilized, whereas California wetting will largely emerge only after GHG concentrations are stabilized. The rapid adjustment contributes to a reduction in precipitation, but has a limited impact on the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In these Mediterranean-like regions, future hydro-climate–related impacts will be substantially modulated by the time evolution of the pattern of SST warming that is realized in the real world.},
author = {Zappa, Giuseppe and Ceppi, Paulo and Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1911015117},
isbn = {1911015117},
issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
language = {en},
month = {feb},
number = {9},
pages = {201911015},
title = {{Time-evolving sea-surface warming patterns modulate the climate change response of subtropical precipitation over land}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/02/11/1911015117.abstract},
volume = {117},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zarzycki2018,
abstract = {The northeastern United States is vulnerable to many impacts from snowfall-producing winter cyclones that are amplified by the proximity of population centers to storm tracks. Historically, climatic snowfall assessments have centered around seasonal means even though local impacts typically occur at scales of hours to days. To detect snowstorms at the event level, an objective algorithm is defined based on the Regional Snowfall Index. The metric collocates storm snowfall with population to produce statistics of snowstorms with societal impacts. When applied to the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, broad declines in snowstorm frequency are projected by the later 21st century. These decreases are primarily due to a warmer atmosphere less conducive to snowfall as the predominant precipitation type. However, reductions are less significant for major events, since more hostile thermodynamic environments are partially offset by increased precipitation associated with cyclones that dynamically drive high-impact snowstorms. Plain Language Summary Snowstorms that strike the northeastern United States result in risks to health and welfare, transportation disruption, lost spending productivity, structural damage, and power outages. This letter demonstrates an automated technique that finds and counts individual snowstorms in climate model data, eliminating the need to do so by hand. When this metric is applied to a large number of climate simulations, northeastern U.S. snowstorms are forecast to decrease in frequency over the coming century. However, this decrease is nonlinear across intensity, being larger for storms producing less snow over smaller areas than it is for major storms impacting populated areas with heavier snowfall. Warmer temperatures throughout the atmosphere result in precipitation less likely to fall in the form of snow in the future, but increases in cumulative precipitation associated with cyclones in the northeastern United States are projected. This means that while the likelihood of a given cyclone-producing snow (instead of rain) decreases, when atmospheric conditions are cold enough, storms drop more snowfall, therefore partially offsetting reductions in high-impact snowstorms moving forward.},
author = {Zarzycki, C. M.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079820},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate,cyclones,extremes,model,snowstorms,winter},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {12067--12075},
title = {{Projecting Changes in Societally Impactful Northeastern U.S. Snowstorms}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079820},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zavadoff2020,
abstract = {Large-scale analysis of the dynamic and thermodynamic properties of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western Europe is performed utilizing 38 years of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), reanalysis dataset. A climatology of landfalling ARs from 1980 to 2017 is developed using a combination of integrated water vapor transport (IVT) calculations and a detection algorithm, which identified 578 ARs over the study period. Examination of the upper-level potential vorticity (PV) fields shows that 73{\%} of these AR events are related to anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (RWB), a dynamic feature which has been shown to play a role in AR strength and structure. Atmospheric river variability is also found to be closely tied to jet-stream latitude modulation by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), such that during a positive NAO the North Atlantic jet is shifted north, creating an environment that is more favorable for anticyclonic RWB and AR landfalls over northern Europe, and during a negative NAO it is shifted south, creating such an environment over southern Europe.Through the use of linear regression analysis, AR strength is shown to be dependent on atmospheric moisture availability, which is found to increase as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increase. Therefore, in a warming climate warmer SSTs leading to higher atmospheric moisture availability will result in an increase in the average strength and intensity of ARs over western Europe—a trend that has already been observed.},
author = {Zavadoff, Breanna L and Kirtman, Ben P},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0601.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {10},
pages = {4167--4185},
title = {{Dynamic and Thermodynamic Modulators of European Atmospheric Rivers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0601.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zeder2020,
abstract = {In this publication we aim to relate observed changes in Central European extreme precipitation to the respective large-scale thermodynamic state of the atmosphere. Maxima of long-term (1901–2013) daily precipitation records from a densely sampled Central European station network, spanning Austria, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands, are scaled with Northern Hemispheric and regional temperature anomalies. Scaling coefficients are estimated at station level and aggregated to infer a robust regional extreme precipitation – temperature relationship. Across Central Europe, an overall intensification and a positive scaling signal with Northern Hemispheric temperature is detected in annual, summer, and winter single-day to monthly maximum precipitation. Generally, the estimates are consistent also when only considering data after 1950, and the scaling of annual maxima is also significant for all individual countries but Austria. However, scaling magnitudes are found to vary considerably between seasons and subregions. Also, scaling with regional temperature is non-significant, except for winter extreme precipitation.},
author = {Zeder, Joel and Fischer, Erich M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2020.100266},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Central Europe,Clausius-clapeyron scaling,Climate change signal,Extreme Extreme value statistics,Observational data},
pages = {100266},
title = {{Observed extreme precipitation trends and scaling in Central Europe}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719301720},
volume = {29},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zelinka2020,
abstract = {Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO CO2 doubling, has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO2 quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This (statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo. Both of these are tied to the physical representation of clouds which in CMIP6 models lead to weaker responses of extratropical low cloud cover and water content to unforced variations in surface temperature. Establishing the plausibility of these higher sensitivity models is imperative given their implied societal ramifications.},
author = {Zelinka, Mark D. and Myers, Timothy A. and McCoy, Daniel T. and Po-Chedley, Stephen and Caldwell, Peter M. and Ceppi, Paulo and Klein, Stephen A. and Taylor, Karl E.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL085782},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models}},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zemp2017,
abstract = {Relatively little is understood about seasonal effect of climate change on the Amazon rainforest. Here, the authors show that Amazon forest loss in response to dry-season intensification during the last glacial period was likely self-amplified by regional vegetation-rainfall feedbacks.},
author = {Zemp, Delphine Clara and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Barbosa, Henrique M. J. and Hirota, Marina and Montade, Vincent and Sampaio, Gilvan and Staal, Arie and Wang-Erlandsson, Lan and Rammig, Anja},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms14681},
isbn = {2041-1723 (Electronic) 2041-1723 (Linking)},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {apr},
number = {1},
pages = {14681},
pmid = {28287104},
title = {{Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation–atmosphere feedbacks}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14681},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zemp2019,
abstract = {Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets cover an area of approximately 706,000 square kilometres globally1, with an estimated total volume of 170,000 cubic kilometres, or 0.4 metres of potential sea-level-rise equivalent2. Retreating and thinning glaciers are icons of climate change3 and affect regional runoff4 as well as global sea level5,6. In past reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, estimates of changes in glacier mass were based on the multiplication of averaged or interpolated results from available observations of a few hundred glaciers by defined regional glacier areas7–10. For data-scarce regions, these results had to be complemented with estimates based on satellite altimetry and gravimetry11. These past approaches were challenged by the small number and heterogeneous spatiotemporal distribution of in situ measurement series and their often unknown ability to represent their respective mountain ranges, as well as by the spatial limitations of satellite altimetry (for which only point data are available) and gravimetry (with its coarse resolution). Here we use an extrapolation of glaciological and geodetic observations to show that glaciers contributed 27 ± 22 millimetres to global mean sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016. Regional specific-mass-change rates for 2006–2016 range from −0.1 metres to −1.2 metres of water equivalent per year, resulting in a global sea-level contribution of 335 ± 144 gigatonnes, or 0.92 ± 0.39 millimetres, per year. Although statistical uncertainty ranges overlap, our conclusions suggest that glacier mass loss may be larger than previously reported11. The present glacier mass loss is equivalent to the sea-level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet12, clearly exceeds the loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet13, and accounts for 25 to 30 per cent of the total observed sea-level rise14. Present mass-loss rates indicate that glaciers could almost disappear in some mountain ranges in this century, while heavily glacierized regions will continue to contribute to sea-level rise beyond 2100.},
author = {Zemp, M. and Huss, M. and Thibert, E. and Eckert, N. and Mcnabb, R. and Huber, J. and Barandun, M. and Machguth, H. and Nussbaumer, S. U. and G{\"{a}}rtner-Roer, I. and Thomson, L. and Paul, F. and Maussion, F. and Kutuzov, S. and Cogley, J. G.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
month = {apr},
number = {7752},
pages = {382--386},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0},
volume = {568},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zeng2018GRL,
abstract = {Snow water equivalent (SWE) variability and its drivers over different regions remain uncertain due to lack of representativeness of point measurements and deficiencies of existing coarse‐resolution SWE products. Here, for the first time, we quantify and understand the snowpack change from 1982 to 2016 over conterminous United States at 4‐km pixels. Annual maximum SWE decreased significantly (p {\textless} 0.05) by 41{\%} on average for 13{\%} of snowy pixels over western United States. Snow season was shortened significantly by 34 days on average for 9{\%} of snowy pixels over the United States, primarily caused by earlier ending and later arrival of the season over western and eastern United States, respectively. October–March mean temperature and accumulated precipitation largely explain the temporal variability of 1 April SWE over western United States, and considering temperature alone would exaggerate the warming effect on SWE decrease. In contrast, temperature plays the primary role in the 1 April SWE variability over eastern United States.},
annote = {Observations indicate reduced annual maximum snow mass and shorter snow seasons since 1982 over parts of the USA with variability explained by temperature and accumulated winter precipitation.},
author = {Zeng, Xubin and Broxton, Patrick and Dawson, Nicholas},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079621},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Snowpack Change From 1982 to 2016 Over Conterminous United States}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029{\%}2F2018gl079621 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079621},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zeng1999,
abstract = {The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the West African Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea-surface temperature variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation substantially but can reduce year-to-year variability because of a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular the multidecadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 1980s.},
author = {Zeng, Ning and Neelin, J. David and Lau, K. M. and Tucker, Compton J.},
doi = {10.1126/science.286.5444.1537},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {00368075},
journal = {Science},
number = {5444},
pages = {1537--1540},
pmid = {10567254},
title = {{Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction}},
volume = {286},
year = {1999}
}
@article{Zeng2014,
abstract = {A satellite-based water balance method is developed to model global evapotranspiration (ET) through coupling a water balance (WB)model with a machine-learning algorithm (themodel tree ensemble, MTE) (hereafter WB-MTE). The WB-MTE algorithmwas firstly trained by combiningmonthly WB-estimated basin ET with the potential drivers (e.g., radiation, temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and vegetation index) across 95 large river basins (5824 basin-months) and then applied to establish globalmonthly ETmaps at a spatial resolution of 0.5° from 1982 to 2009. The global land ET estimated fromWB-MTE has an annual mean of 593±17mmfor 1982–2009, with a spatial distribution consistent with previous studies in all latitudes but the tropics. The ET estimated by WB-MTE also shows significant linear trends in both annual and seasonal global ET during 1982–2009, though the trends seem to have stalled after 1998. Moreover, our study presents a striking difference from the previous ones primarily in the magnitude of ET estimates during the wet season particularly in the tropics,where ET is highly uncertain due to lack of directmeasurements. Thismay be tied to their lack of proper consideration to solar radiation and/or the rainfall interception process. By contrast, in the dry season, our estimate of ET compareswellwith the previous ones, both for the mean state and the variability. If we are to reduce the uncertainties in estimating ET, these results emphasize the necessity of deploying more observations during the wet season, particularly in the tropics. ZENG},
author = {Zeng, Zhenzhong and Wang, Tao and Zhou, Feng and Ciais, Philippe and Mao, Jiafu and Shi, Xiaoying and Piao, Shilong},
doi = {10.1002/2013JD020941},
isbn = {92-1-126171-6},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1186--1202},
title = {{A worldwide analysis of spatiotemporal changes in water balance-based evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2009}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013JD020941},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Zeng2018a,
abstract = {The greening of the Earth has been unequivocally observed in 30 years of satellite measurements from NOAA-AVHRR. Here, we review the recent literature on the response of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) to Earth's greening, including the contribution of greening to the global terrestrial ET change over recent decades and its role in the regulation by vegetation of changes in Earth's climate system. Although large uncertainties remain in the observation-based reconstructions of global terrestrial ET, all products established a significant increase in terrestrial ET over the past three decades (P {\textless} 0.05). The ensemble of all reconstructions over the period 1982–2011 provided a relatively robust estimate of 0.97 ± 0.16 trillion tonnes per year per decade, or 7.65 ± 1.26 mm per year per decade averaged over the terrestrial area. More than 50{\%} of this global intensification of terrestrial ET was caused by the greening of the Earth, as evidenced by observation-based statistical analysis and observation-driven model simulations. Earth system model simulations further showed that this response is a key determinant of the complex feedback loops of Earth's greening with Earth's water and climate systems. These results highlight the need for much more accurate representation of vegetation dynamics and the sensitivity of ET to vegetation changes in Earth system models, which will ultimately improve the strategies developed for water resource management and climate change mitigation via ecosystem management.},
author = {Zeng, Zhenzhong and Peng, Liqing and Piao, Shilong},
doi = {10.1016/j.cosust.2018.03.001},
issn = {18773435},
journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability},
month = {aug},
pages = {9--25},
title = {{Response of terrestrial evapotranspiration to Earth's greening}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1877343517302257},
volume = {33},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zeng2018,
abstract = {AbstractLeaf area index (LAI) is increasing throughout the globe, implying the Earth greening. Global modelling studies support this contention, yet satellite observations and model simulations have never been directly compared. Here, for the first time, we used a coupled land-climate model to quantify the potential impact of the satellite-observed Earth greening over the past 30 years on the terrestrial water cycle. The global LAI enhancement by 8{\%} between the early 1980s and the early 2010s is modelled to have caused increases of 12.0 ±2.4 mm yr-1 in evapotranspiration and 12.1 ±2.7 mm yr-1 in precipitation — about 55 ±25{\%} and 28 ±6{\%} of the observed increases in land evapotranspiration and precipitation, respectively. In wet regions, the greening did not significantly decrease runoff and soil moisture because it intensified moisture recycling through a coincident increase of evapotranspiration and precipitation. But in dry regions including Sahel, West Asia, northern India, western United States and the...},
author = {Zeng, Zhenzhong and Piao, Shilong and Li, Laurent Z.X. and Wang, Tao and Ciais, Philippe and Lian, Xu and Yang, Yuting and Mao, Jiafu and Shi, Xiaoying and Myneni, Ranga B.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0236.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-land interaction,Evapotranspiration,Feedback,Vegetation,Vegetation-atmosphere interactions},
number = {7},
pages = {2633--2650},
title = {{Impact of Earth greening on the terrestrial water cycle}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhan2019,
author = {Zhan, Shengan and Song, Chunqiao and Wang, Jida and Sheng, Yongwei and Quan, Jiping},
doi = {10.1029/2018EF001066},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {266--282},
title = {{A Global Assessment of Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Increase Due to Surface Water Area Change}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018EF001066},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2018a,
abstract = {Abstract We investigated the nonlinearity of runoff response to global mean temperature (GMT) change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models at the river basin scale globally. Results show that changes in long-term mean annual runoff are nonlinear with GMT rise over most extended subtropical basins, suggesting that estimation of future runoff change derived from the linear scaling relations would be biased. As for the interannual variability, nonlinearities are apparent mainly in central and western Asia, southern and western Africa, most of Europe, and Australia when GMT increases beyond 1.5°C. This suggests that impacts of climate change under 1.5°C GMT rise on runoff variability should not be simply scaled from that under a 2°C warming world. Our results highlight the contrasting response of areal runoff to GMT rise across global major river basins and reveal the threshold of GMT increment at which the nonlinear runoff response is projected to emerge.},
author = {Zhang, Xuejun and Tang, Qiuhong and Liu, Xingcai and Leng, Guoyong and Di, Chongli},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078646},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP5 climate models,global mean temperature change,nonlinear response,river basins},
number = {12},
pages = {6109--6116},
title = {{Nonlinearity of Runoff Response to Global Mean Temperature Change Over Major Global River Basins}},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhang2018c,
author = {Zhang, Rongwang and Wang, Xin and Wang, Chunzai},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0713.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {17},
pages = {7111--7128},
title = {{On the Simulations of Global Oceanic Latent Heat Flux in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0713.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhang2014,
author = {Zhang, Xuejun and Tang, Qiuhong and Zhang, Xuezhen and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL060382},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {5492--5498},
title = {{Runoff sensitivity to global mean temperature change in the CMIP5 Models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL060382},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Zhang2013,
abstract = {Observations and climate change projections forced by greenhouse gas emissions have indicated a wetting trend in northern high latitudes, evidenced by increasing Eurasian Arctic river discharges1–3. The increase in river discharge has accelerated in the latest decade and an unprecedented, record high discharge occurred in 2007 along with an extreme loss of Arctic summer sea-ice cover4–6. Studies have ascribed this increasing discharge to various factors attributable to local global warming effects, including intensifying precip- itation minus evaporation, thawing permafrost, increasing greenness and reduced plant transpiration7–11. However, no agreement has been reached and causal physical processes remain unclear. Here we show that enhancement of poleward atmospheric moisture transport (AMT) decisively contributes to increased Eurasian Arctic river discharges. Net AMT into the Eurasian Arctic river basins captures 98{\%} of the gauged climatological river discharges. The trend of 2.6{\%} net AMT increase per decade accounts well for the 1.8{\%} per decade increase in gauged discharges and also suggests an increase in underlying soil moisture. A radical shift of the atmospheric circulation pattern induced an unusually large AMT and warm surface in 2006–2007 over Eurasia, resulting in the record high discharge.},
annote = {Atmospheric moisture transport into the Eurasian Arctic increased by 2.6{\%}/decade during 1948-2008 based on a reanalysis estimate.},
author = {Zhang, Xiangdong and He, Juanxiong and Zhang, Jing and Polyakov, Igor and Gerdes, R{\"{u}}diger and Inoue, Jun and Wu, Peili},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1631},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {1},
pages = {47--51},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Enhanced poleward moisture transport and amplified northern high-latitude wetting trend}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1631},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Zhang2019GRL,
abstract = {Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ECs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) impact precipitation over the U.S. West Coast and other analogous regions globally. This study investigates the relationship between ECs and ARs by exploring the connections between EC strength and AR intensity and position using a new AR intensity scale. While 82{\%} of ARs are associated with an EC, only 45{\%} of ECs have a paired AR and the distance between the AR and EC varies greatly. Roughly 20{\%} of ARs (defined by vertically integrated water vapor transport, IVT) occur without a nearby EC. These are usually close to a subtropical/tropical moisture source and include an anticyclone. AR intensity is only moderately proportional to EC strength. Neither the location nor intensity of an AR can be simply determined by an EC. Greater EC intensification occurs with stronger ARs, suggesting that ARs enhance EC deepening by providing more water vapor for latent heat release.},
annote = {Enhanced latent heat release through atmospheric rivers can invigorate the parent storm},
author = {Zhang, Zhenhai and Ralph, F. Martin and Zheng, Minghua},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079071},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {atmospheric river},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1814--1823},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{The Relationship Between Extratropical Cyclone Strength and Atmospheric River Intensity and Position}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029{\%}2F2018gl079071 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL079071},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2015b,
author = {Zhang, Zizhan and Chao, B.F. and Chen, Jianli and Wilson, C.R.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.002},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
month = {mar},
pages = {35--45},
title = {{Terrestrial water storage anomalies of Yangtze River Basin droughts observed by GRACE and connections with ENSO}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S092181811500017X},
volume = {126},
year = {2015}
}
@article{zwzm16,
author = {Zhang, Guang J and Wu, Xiaoqing and Zeng, Xiping and Mitovski, Toni},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2957-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {oct},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2177--2192},
title = {{Estimation of convective entrainment properties from a cloud-resolving model simulation during TWP-ICE}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2957-7},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zhang2017,
abstract = {Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called 'richest-get-richer' mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]},
author = {Zhang, Lei and Li, Tim},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3123-6},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Global warming,The Walker circulation,Uniform SST warming and extra land warming},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {987--997},
title = {{Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3123-6},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zhang2018e,
author = {Zhang, Enlou and Sun, Weiwei and Chang, Jie and Ning, Dongliang and Shulmeister, James},
doi = {10.1002/jqs.3008},
issn = {02678179},
journal = {Journal of Quaternary Science},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {131--138},
title = {{Variations of the Indian summer monsoon over the last 30 000 years inferred from a pyrogenic carbon record from south-west China}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jqs.3008},
volume = {33},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhang2017a,
author = {Zhang, Lixia and Wu, Peili and Zhou, Tianjun},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa5fb3},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {034020},
title = {{Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/12/i=3/a=034020?key=crossref.b8dc6f489dc566da8fcbaf598a18142a},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zhang2017b,
abstract = {The sahelian rainfall regime is characterized by a strong spatial as well as intra- and inter-annual variability. The satellite based African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) daily gridded rainfall estimates with a 0.1°×0.1° spatial resolution provides the possibility for in-depth studies of seasonal changes over a 33-year period (1983–2015). Here we analyze rainfall regime variables that require daily observations: onset, cessation, and length of the wet season; seasonal rainfall amount; number of rainy days; intensity and frequency of rainfall events; number, length, and cumulative duration of dry spells. Rain gauge stations and MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation) data were used to evaluate the agreement of rainfall variables in both space and time, and trends were analyzed. Overall, ARC2 rainfall variables reliably show the spatio-temporal dynamics of seasonal rainfall over 33years when compared to gauge and MSWEP data. However, a higher frequency of low rainfall events ({\textless}10mmday−1) is found for satellite estimates as compared to gauge data, which also causes disagreements between satellite and gauge based variables due to sensitivity to the number of days with observations (frequency, intensity, and dry spell characteristics). Most rainfall variables (both ARC2 and gauge data) show negative anomalies (except for onset of rainy season) from 1983 until the end of the 1990s, from which anomalies become mostly positive and inter-annual variability is higher. ARC2 data show a strong increase in seasonal rainfall, wet season length (caused by both earlier onset and a late end), number of rainy days, and high rainfall events ({\textgreater}20mmday−1) for the western/central Sahel over the period of analysis, whereas the opposite trend characterizes the eastern part of the Sahel.},
author = {Zhang, Wenmin and Brandt, Martin and Guichard, Francoise and Tian, Qingjiu and Fensholt, Rasmus},
doi = {10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2017.05.033},
issn = {0022-1694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {jul},
pages = {427--440},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Using long-term daily satellite based rainfall data (1983–2015) to analyze spatio-temporal changes in the sahelian rainfall regime}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169417303220?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {550},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{zm16,
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Zhang, H and Moise, A},
booktitle = {The Monsoons and Climate Change},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-21650-8_5},
editor = {Jones, C and Carvalho, L},
pages = {67--120},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{The Australian summer monsoon in current and future climate}},
year = {2016}
}
@article{zdmchy16,
author = {Zhang, H and Dong, G and Moise, A and Colman, R and Hanson, L and Ye, H},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2107-x},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
pages = {2371--2389},
title = {{Uncertainty in CMIP5 model-projected changes in the onset/retreat of the Australian summer monsoon}},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zhang2013,
abstract = {In this study, we assess the potential changes in the onset, retreat and duration of austral summer monsoon covering the domain from south Sumatra and Java region in the tropics to the northern Australian continent. We simply call it the Australian summer monsoon. Daily precipitable water and 850 hPa wind from 13 CMIP3 models are used in the diagnoses. A majority of the models can capture the northwest--southeast evolution of the summer monsoon, which starts from the south Sumatra and Java region around later November and then progressively approaches the Australian continent in late December. Nevertheless, significant biases exist in the modeled onset/retreat dates and the extent of the monsoon inland penetration. Under global warming, the agreement among the model projections varies across the domain. In between the Sumatra-Java archipelago and the top end of the Australian continent, over 80 {\%} of the models simulate delayed monsoon onset and shortened duration by {\{}$\backslash$textasciitilde{\}}10 days, but less model agreement is seen over interior continent where the model ensembles show an approximate 7-day delay of both the onset and retreat with relatively little change in duration. Both El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean SST patterns appear to play important roles in determining the variations of the modeled monsoon onset. Nevertheless, the extent of their influence varies significantly across the models. Under global warming, a large proportion of models show relatively less warming in the eastern Indian Ocean and with a consequent increase in the modeled Indian Ocean Dipole index. Both a weakened and/or eastward shift of the upward branch of Walker circulation and the Indian Ocean contribute to the simulated delayed onset and shortened duration in the tropics under global warming.},
author = {Zhang, Huqiang and Moise, A and Liang, Ping and Hanson, L},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1389-x},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {377--399},
title = {{The response of summer monsoon onset/retreat in Sumatra-Java and tropical Australia region to global warming in CMIP3 models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1389-x},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Zhang2016c,
abstract = {Climate models tend to overestimate percentage of the contribution (to total precipitation) and frequency of light rainfall while underestimate the heavy rainfall. This article investigates the added value of high resolution of atmospheric general circulation models ( AGCMs) in simulating the characteristics of global precipitation, in particular extremes. Three AGCMs, global high resolution atmospheric model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL- HiRAM), the Meteorological Research Institute-atmospheric general circulation model ( MRI- AGCM) and the Met Office Unified Model ( MetUM), each with one high and one low resolution configurations for the period 1998-2008 are used in this study. Some consistent improvements are found across all three AGCMs with increasing model resolution from 50-83 to 20-35 km. A reduction in global mean frequency and amount percentile of light rainfall ({\textless}11 mm day−1) and an increase of medium to heavy rainfall ({\textgreater}20 mm day−1) are shown in high resolution models of GFDL-HiRAM and MRI-AGCM, while the improvement in MetUM is not obvious. A consistent response to high resolution across the three AGCMs is seen from the increase of light rainfall frequency and amount percentile over the desert regions, particularly over the ocean desert regions. It suppresses the overestimation of CDD over ocean desert regions and makes a better performance in high resolution models of GFDL-HiRAM and MRI-AGCM, but worse in MetUM-N512. The impact of model resolution differs greatly among the three AGCMs in simulating the fraction of total precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile daily wet day precipitation. Inconsistencies among models with increased resolution mainly appear over the tropical oceans and in simulating extreme wet conditions, probably due to different reactions of dynamical and physical processes to the resolution, indicating their crucial role in high resolution modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1403.5341v2},
author = {Zhang, Lixia and Wu, Peili and Zhou, Tianjun and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Schiemann, Reinhard},
doi = {10.1002/asl.715},
eprint = {arXiv:1403.5341v2},
issn = {1530261X},
journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
keywords = {high  modelling,light and heavy rainfall,precipitation characteristics},
number = {12},
pages = {646--657},
title = {{Added value of high resolution models in simulating global precipitation characteristics}},
volume = {17},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zhang2019i,
abstract = {The Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship is a thermodynamic relationship between saturation vapor pressure and temperature. Based on the C–C relationship, the scaling of extreme precipitation with respect to surface air temperature (i.e., extreme precipitation scaling) has been widely believed to quantify the sensitivity of these extremes to global surface warming under climate change. However, the extreme precipitation scaling rate in the observations produces counter-intuitive results, particularly in the tropics (i.e., strong negative scaling in the tropical land) possibly associated with limitations in moisture availability under the high-temperature bands. The trends in extreme precipitation based on station data are mixed with decreases in most of the tropics and subtropics and increases in most of the USA, western Europe, Australia, and a large portion of Asia. To try to reconcile these results, we examine the extreme precipitation scaling using dew point temperature and extreme precipitation and compare these results with those obtained from surface air temperature and extreme precipitation using station-based data, reanalysis data, and climate model simulations. We find that this mix of increases and decreases in the trends of extreme precipitation across the planet is more similar to the changes in surface dew point temperature rather than the actual temperature across the station-based data, reanalysis data, and the historical experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5). These findings suggest that dew point temperature is a better and more realistic metric for the responses of extreme precipitation to temperature increases. Therefore, the risk of having extreme precipitation is higher than what was obtained using surface air temperature, particularly in the tropics and subtropics (e.g., South Asia), areas of the world characterized by extremely high population density and severe poverty.},
author = {Zhang, Wei and Villarini, Gabriele and Wehner, Michael},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02415-8},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {thermo},
number = {1},
pages = {257--271},
title = {{Contrasting the responses of extreme precipitation to changes in surface air and dew point temperatures}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02415-8},
volume = {154},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2019e,
abstract = {Abstract Global climate models consensually predict that tropical rainfall will be distributed more unevenly with global warming, i.e., dry regions or months will get drier and wet regions or months will get wetter. Previous mechanisms such as ``dry-get-drier, wet-get-wetter', ``rich-get-richer', or ``upped-ante' focus on the spatial pattern of rainfall changes rather than the changes in probability distribution. Here, we present a quantitative explanation of the warming induced probability distribution change of rainfall: Subcloud moist static energy (MSE) gradients are amplified by Clausius-Clapeyron relationship given roughly uniform warming and constant relative humidity, therefore the present-day wet regions will become more competitive for convection in a warmer world. Though changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern can enhance rainfall in one place and suppress rainfall in another, our results show that the total effect should be a decrease in the area of active convection even with uniform warming.},
author = {Zhang, Yi and Fueglistaler, Stephan},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086058},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate change,Moist static energy,Tropical convection,Tropical },
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {14836--14843},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Mechanism for Increasing Tropical Rainfall Unevenness With Global Warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086058 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086058},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2019c,
abstract = {An integrated picture of the future changes in the water cycle is provided focusing on the global land monsoon (GLM) region, based on multimodel projections under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We investigate the reservoirs (e.g., precipitable water, soil moisture) and water fluxes (e.g., precipitation P, evaporation E, precipitation minus evaporation P − E, and total runoff) of the water cycle. The projected intensification of the water cycle with global warming in the GLM region is reflected in robust increases in annual-mean P (multimodel median response of 0.81{\%} K−1), E (0.57{\%} K−1), P − E (1.58{\%} K−1), and total runoff (2.08{\%} K−1). Both surface (−0.83{\%} K−1) and total soil moisture (−0.26{\%} K−1) decrease as a result of increasing evaporative demand. Regionally, the Northern Hemispheric (NH) African, South Asian, and East Asian monsoon regions would experience an intensified water cycle, as measured by the coherent increases in P, P − E, and runoff, while the NH American monsoon region would experience a weakened water cycle. Changes in the monthly fields are more remarkable and robust than in the annual mean. An enhanced annual cycle (by {\~{}}3{\%}–5{\%} K−1) with a phase delay from the current climate in P, P − E, and runoff is projected, featuring an intensified water cycle in the wet season while little changes or slight weakening in the dry season. The increased seasonality and drier soils throughout the year imply increasing flood and drought risks and agricultural yields reduction. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the low warming target set by the Paris Agreement, could robustly reduce additional hydrological risks from increased seasonality as compared to higher warming thresholds.},
author = {Zhang, Wenxia and Zhou, Tianjun and Zhang, Lixia and Zou, Liwei},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0628.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Hydrologic cycle,Monsoons,Precipitation},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {5437--5452},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Future Intensification of the Water Cycle with an Enhanced Annual Cycle over Global Land Monsoon Regions}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0628.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2018m,
abstract = {Category 4 landfalling hurricane Harvey poured more than a metre of rainfall across the heavily populated Houston area, leading to unprecedented flooding and damage. Although studies have focused on the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to this extreme rainfall event1–3, limited attention has been paid to the potential effects of urbanization on the hydrometeorology associated with hurricane Harvey. Here we find that urbanization exacerbated not only the flood response but also the storm total rainfall. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model—a numerical model for simulating weather and climate at regional scales—and statistical models, we quantify the contribution of urbanization to rainfall and flooding. Overall, we find that the probability of such extreme flood events across the studied basins increased on average by about 21 times in the period 25–30 August 2017 because of urbanization. The effect of urbanization on storm-induced extreme precipitation and flooding should be more explicitly included in global climate models, and this study highlights its importance when assessing the future risk of such extreme events in highly urbanized coastal areas.},
author = {Zhang, Wei and Villarini, Gabriele and Vecchi, Gabriel A and Smith, James A},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0676-z},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7731},
pages = {384--388},
title = {{Urbanization exacerbated the rainfall and flooding caused by hurricane Harvey in Houston}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0676-z},
volume = {563},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhang2018f,
abstract = {Observations show that decadal (10-20 yr) to interdecadal ({\textgreater} 20 yr) variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) closely follows that of the Pacific until the 1960s. Since then, the TIO SST exhibits a persistent warming trend, whereas the Pacific SST shows large-amplitude fluctuations associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and the decadal variability of the TIO SST is out of phase with that of the Pacific after around 1980. Here causes for the changing behavior of the TIO SST are explored, by analyzing multiple observational datasets and the recently available large-ensemble simulations from two climate models. It is found that on interdecadal time scales, the persistent TIO warming trend is caused by emergence of anthropogenic warming overcoming internal variability, while the time of emergence occurs much later in the Pacific. On decadal time scales, two major tropical volcanic eruptions occurred in the 1980s and 1990s causing decadal SST cooling over the TIO during which the IPO was in warm phase, yielding the out-of-phase relation. The more evident fingerprints of external forcing in the TIO compared to the Pacific result from the much weaker TIO internal decadal-interdecadal variability, making the TIO prone to the external forcing. These results imply that the ongoing warming and natural external forcing may make the Indian Ocean more active, playing an increasingly important role in affecting regional and global climate.},
author = {Zhang, Lei and Han, Weiqing and Sienzn, Frank},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0445.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate variability},
number = {6},
pages = {2377--2388},
title = {{Unraveling causes for the changing behavior of the tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhang2017e,
abstract = {This study investigates the future change in precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones over eastern North America and the western Atlantic during the cool season (November–March) through the twenty-first century. A cyclone-relative approach is applied to 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in order to isolate precipitation changes for different cyclone intensities and storm life cycle, as well as determine the relevant physical processes associated with these changes. The historical analysis suggests that models with better performance in predicting extratropical cyclones tend to have smaller precipitation errors, and the ensemble mean has a smaller mean absolute error than the individual models. By the late-twenty-first century, the precipitation amount associated with cyclones increases by 5{\%}–25{\%} over the U.S. East Coast, with about 90{\%} of the increase from the relatively strong ({\textless}990 hPa) and moderate (990–1005 hPa) cyclones. Meanwhile, the precipitation rate increases by 15{\%}–25{\%} over the U.S. East Coast for the strong cyclone centers, which is larger than the moderate and weak cyclones. The relatively strong cyclones just inland of the U.S. East Coast have the largest increase ({\~{}}30{\%}) in precipitation rate, since these centers over land have the largest increase in low-level temperature (and moisture), a decrease (5{\%}–13{\%}) in the static stability, and an increase ({\~{}}5{\%}) in upward motion during the late-twenty-first century. This east coast region also has an increase in cyclone intensity in the future even though there is a decrease in low-level baroclinicity, which suggests that the latent heat release from heavier precipitation contributes to this storm deepening.},
author = {Zhang, Zhenhai and Colle, Brian A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0906.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {8633--8656},
title = {{Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation and Associated Processes during the Twenty-First Century over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Using a Cyclone-Relative Approach}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zhang2015,
abstract = {Recent studies showed that anomalous dry conditions and limited moisture supply roughly between 1998 and 2008, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, led to reduced vegetation productivity and ceased growth in land evapotranspiration (ET). However, natural variability of Earth's climate system can degrade capabilities for identifying climate trends. Here we produced a long-term (1982-2013) remote sensing based land ET record and investigated multidecadal changes in global ET and underlying causes. The ET record shows a significant upward global trend of 0.88 mm yr(-2) (P {\textless} 0.001) over the 32-year period, mainly driven by vegetation greening (0.018{\%} per year; P {\textless} 0.001) and rising atmosphere moisture demand (0.75 mm yr(-2); P = 0.016). Our results indicate that reduced ET growth between 1998 and 2008 was an episodic phenomenon, with subsequent recovery of the ET growth rate after 2008. Terrestrial precipitation also shows a positive trend of 0.66 mm yr(-2) (P = 0.08) over the same period consistent with expected water cycle intensification, but this trend is lower than coincident increases in evaporative demand and ET, implying a possibility of cumulative water supply constraint to ET. Continuation of these trends will likely exacerbate regional drought-induced disturbances, especially during regional dry climate phases associated with strong El Ni{\~{n}}o events.},
author = {Zhang, Ke and Kimball, John S. and Nemani, Ramakrishna R. and Running, Steven W. and Hong, Yang and Gourley, Jonathan J. and Yu, Zhongbo},
doi = {10.1038/srep15956},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {15956},
title = {{Vegetation Greening and Climate Change Promote Multidecadal Rises of Global Land Evapotranspiration}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep15956},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Zhang2017f,
author = {Zhang, Wenxia and Zhou, Tianjun and Zhang, Lixia},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD026468},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {10.1002/2017JD026468 and Tibetan Plateau,Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,hydrological cycle,monsoon onset,precipitation,trend},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5808--5822},
title = {{Wetting and greening Tibetan Plateau in early summer in recent decades}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017JD026468},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{z16,
abstract = {Evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981-2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (Et), direct evaporation from the soil (Es) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetation (Ei). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p {\textless} 0.01), caused by increases in Et and Ei, which are partially counteracted by Es decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in Et over land is about twofold of the decrease in Es. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle.},
author = {Zhang, Yongqiang and Pe{\~{n}}a-Arancibia, Jorge L. and McVicar, Tim R. and Chiew, Francis H.S. and Vaze, Jai and Liu, Changming and Lu, Xingjie and Zheng, Hongxing and Wang, Yingping and Liu, Yi Y. and Miralles, Diego G. and Pan, Ming and {Zhang Y. Pen˜ a-Arancibia JL}, McVicar T R Chiew F H S Vaze J Liu C Pan M: and Zhang, Yongqiang and Pe{\~{n}}a-Arancibia, Jorge L. and McVicar, Tim R. and Chiew, Francis H.S. and Vaze, Jai and Liu, Changming and Lu, Xingjie and Zheng, Hongxing and Wang, Yingping and Liu, Yi Y. and Miralles, Diego G. and Pan, Ming},
doi = {10.1038/srep19124},
isbn = {2045-2322 (Electronic)$\backslash$r2045-2322 (Linking)},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {jan},
number = {August 2015},
pages = {1--12},
pmid = {26750505},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep19124},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zhang2018d,
abstract = {Precipitation is characterized by substantial natural variability, including on regional and decadal scales. This relatively large variability poses a grand challenge in assessing the significance of anthropogenically forced precipitation changes. Here we use multiple large ensembles of climate change experiments to evaluate whether, on regional scales, anthro- pogenic changes in decadal precipitation mean state are distinguishable. Here, distinguish- able means the anthropogenic change is outside the range expected from natural variability. Relative to the 1950–1999 period, simulated anthropogenic shifts in precipitation mean state for the 2000–2009 period are already distinguishable over 36–41{\%} of the globe—primarily in high latitudes, eastern subtropical oceans, and the tropics. Anthropogenic forcing in future medium-to-high emission scenarios is projected to cause distinguishable shifts over 68–75{\%} of the globe by 2050 and 86–88{\%} by 2100. Our findings imply anthropogenic shifts in decadal-mean precipitation will exceed the bounds of natural variability over most of the planet within several decades.},
author = {Zhang, Honghai and Delworth, Thomas L.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-03611-3},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1150},
title = {{Robustness of anthropogenically forced decadal precipitation changes projected for the 21st century}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03611-3},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhang2019a,
abstract = {A greater warming trend of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean than in the tropical Pacific is a robust feature found in various observational data sets. Yet this interbasin warming contrast is not present in climate models. Here we investigate the impact of tropical Indian Ocean warming on the tropical Pacific response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming by analyzing results from coupled model pacemaker experiments. We find that warming in the Indian Ocean induces local negative sea level pressure anomalies, which extend to the western tropical Pacific, strengthening the zonal sea level pressure gradient and easterly trades in the tropical Pacific. The enhanced trade winds reduce sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific by increasing equatorial upwelling and evaporative cooling, which offset the greenhouse gas warming. This result suggests an interbasin thermostat mechanism, through which the Indian Ocean exerts its influence on the Pacific response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming.},
author = {Zhang, Lei and Han, Weiqing and Karnauskas, Kristopher B. and Meehl, Gerald A. and Hu, Aixue and Rosenbloom, Nan and Shinoda, Toshiaki},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084088},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {19},
pages = {10882--10890},
title = {{Indian Ocean Warming Trend Reduces Pacific Warming Response to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases: An Interbasin Thermostat Mechanism}},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2020,
abstract = {Studies of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) have progressed considerably during the past decades in observations, numerical modeling, and theoretical understanding. Many theoretical attempts have been made to identify the most essential processes responsible for the existence of the MJO. Criteria are proposed to separate a hypothesis from a theory (based on the first principles with quantitative and testable assumptions, able to predict quantitatively the fundamental scales and eastward propagation of the MJO). Four MJO theories are selected to be summarized and compared in this article: the skeleton theory, moisture‐mode theory, gravity‐wave theory, and trio‐interaction theory of the MJO. These four MJO theories are distinct from each other in their key assumptions, parameterized processes, and, particularly, selection mechanisms for the zonal spatial scale, time scale, and eastward propagation of the MJO. The comparison of the four theories and more recent development in MJO dynamical approaches lead to a realization that theoretical thinking of the MJO is diverse and understanding of MJO dynamics needs to be further advanced.},
author = {Zhang, C. and Adames, {\'{A}}. F. and Khouider, B. and Wang, B. and Yang, D.},
doi = {10.1029/2019RG000685},
issn = {8755-1209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {e2019RG000685},
title = {{Four Theories of the Madden–Julian Oscillation}},
volume = {58},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zhao2018a,
author = {Zhao, M. and Golaz, J.-C. and Held, I. M. and Guo, H. and Balaji, V. and Benson, R. and Chen, J.-H. and Chen, X. and Donner, L. J. and Dunne, J. P. and Dunne, K. and Durachta, J. and Fan, S.-M. and Freidenreich, S. M. and Garner, S. T. and Ginoux, P. and Harris, L. M. and Horowitz, L. W. and Krasting, J. P. and Langenhorst, A. R. and Liang, Z. and Lin, P. and Lin, S.-J. and Malyshev, S. L. and Mason, E. and Milly, P. C. D. and Ming, Y. and Naik, V. and Paulot, F. and Paynter, D. and Phillipps, P. and Radhakrishnan, A. and Ramaswamy, V. and Robinson, T. and Schwarzkopf, D. and Seman, C. J. and Shevliakova, E. and Shen, Z. and Shin, H. and Silvers, L. G. and Wilson, J. R. and Winton, M. and Wittenberg, A. T. and Wyman, B. and Xiang, B.},
doi = {10.1002/2017MS001209},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {735--769},
title = {{The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017MS001209},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhao2015a,
abstract = {Complex terrain, commonly represented by mountainous region, occupies nearly one-quarter of the Earth's continental areas. An accurate understanding of water cycle, energy exchange, carbon cycle, and many other biogeophysical or biogeochemical processes in this area has become more and more important for climate change study. Due to the influences from complex topography and rapid variation in elevation, it is usually difficult for field measurements to capture the land-atmosphere interactions well, whereas land surface model (LSM) simulation provides a good alternative. A systematic review is introduced by pointing out the key issues for land surface processes simulation over complex terrain: (1) high spatial heterogeneity for land surface parameters in horizontal direction, (2) big variation of atmospheric forcing data in vertical direction related to elevation change, (3) scale effect on land surface parameterization in LSM, and (4) two-dimensional modelling which considers the gravity influence. Regarding these issues, it is promising for better simulation at this special region by involving higher spatial resolution atmospheric forcing data which can reflect the influences from topographic changes and making necessary improvements on model structure related to topographic factors. In addition, the incorporation of remote sensing techniques will significantly help to reduce uncertainties in model initialization, simulation, and validation.},
author = {Zhao, Wei and Li, Ainong},
doi = {10.1155/2015/607181},
issn = {1687-9309},
journal = {Advances in Meteorology},
pages = {1--17},
title = {{A Review on Land Surface Processes Modelling over Complex Terrain}},
url = {http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2015/607181/},
volume = {2015},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Zhao2020a,
abstract = {A 50-km-resolution GFDL AM4 well captures many aspects of observed atmospheric river (AR) characteristics including the probability density functions of AR length, width, length–width ratio, geographical location, and the magnitude and direction of AR mean vertically integrated vapor transport (IVT), with the model typically producing stronger and narrower ARs than the ERA-Interim results. Despite significant regional biases, the model well reproduces the observed spatial distribution of AR frequency and AR variability in response to large-scale circulation patterns such as El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern and Southern Hemisphere annular modes (NAM and SAM), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. For global warming scenarios, in contrast to most previous studies that show a large increase in AR length and width and therefore the occurrence frequency of AR conditions at a given location, this study shows only a modest increase in these quantities. However, the model produces a large increase in strong ARs with the frequency of category 3–5 ARs rising by roughly 100{\%}–300{\%} K−1. The global mean AR intensity as well as AR intensity percentiles at most percent ranks increases by 5{\%}–8{\%} K−1, roughly consistent with the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of water vapor. Finally, the results point out the importance of AR IVT thresholds in quantifying modeled AR response to global warming.},
author = {Zhao, Ming},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0241.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {23},
pages = {10287--10303},
title = {{Simulations of Atmospheric Rivers, Their Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using GFDL's New High-Resolution General Circulation Model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0241.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zhao2020,
abstract = {Abstract The tropical belt has widened during the last several decades, and both internal variability and anthropogenic forcings have contributed. Although greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion have been implicated as primary anthropogenic drivers of tropical expansion, the possible role of other drivers remains uncertain. Here, we analyze the tropical belt width response to idealized perturbations in multiple models. Our results show that absorbing black carbon (BC) aerosol drives tropical expansion and scattering sulfate aerosol drives contraction. BC, especially from Asia, is more efficient per unit radiative forcing than GHGs in driving tropical expansion, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Tropical belt expansion (contraction) is associated with an increase (decrease) in extratropical static stability induced by absorbing (scattering) aerosol. Although a formal attribution is difficult, scaling the normalized expansion rates to the historical time period suggests BC is the largest driver of NH tropical widening, but with relatively large uncertainty.},
author = {Zhao, Xueying and Allen, Robert J and Wood, Tom and Maycock, Amanda C},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086425},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Aerosols,Anthropogenic drivers,Greenhouse gases,PDRMIP,Tropical belt width},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {e2019GL086425},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Tropical Belt Width Proportionately More Sensitive to Aerosols Than Greenhouse Gases}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086425 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086425},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zhao2019,
abstract = {This study explores the effects of black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) on global and tropical precipitation with a climate model. Results show that BC causes a decrease in global annual mean precipitation, consisting of a large negative tendency of a fast precipitation response scaling with instantaneous atmospheric absorption and a small positive tendency of a slow precipitation response scaling with the BC-caused global warming. SO4 also causes a decrease in global annual mean precipitation, which is dominated by a slow precipitation response corresponding to the surface cooling caused by SO4. BC causes a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), mainly through a fast precipitation response, whereas SO4 causes a southward shift of the ITCZ through a slow precipitation response. The displacements of the ITCZ caused by BC and SO4 are found to linearly correlate with the corresponding changes in cross-equatorial heat transport in the atmosphere, with a regression coefficient of about −3° PW−1, implying that the ITCZ shifts occur as manifestations of the atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport changes in response to the BC and SO4 forcings. The atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport anomaly caused by BC is basically driven by the BC-induced interhemispheric contrast in instantaneous atmospheric absorption, whereas the atmospheric cross-equatorial heat transport anomaly caused by SO4 is mostly attributable to the response of evaporation. It is found that a slab-ocean model exaggerates the cross-equatorial heat transport response in the atmosphere and the ITCZ shift both for BC and SO4, as compared with an ocean-coupled model. This underscores the importance of using an ocean-coupled model in modeling studies of the tropical climate response to aerosols.},
author = {Zhao, Shuyun and Suzuki, Kentaroh},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-18-0616.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Aerosol radiative effect,Aerosol-cloud interaction,Climate models,Coupled models,Precipitation},
number = {17},
pages = {5567--5582},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Differing impacts of black carbon and sulfate aerosols on global precipitation and the ITCZ location via atmosphere and ocean energy perturbations}},
url = {http://10.0.4.151/jcli-d-18-0616.1 https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0616.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhao2018d,
abstract = {Wetlands in the mid- and high-latitudes are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes and have declined dramatically in recent decades. Climate change and human activities are arguably the most important factors driving wetland distribution changes which will have important implications for wetland ecological functions and services. We analyzed the importance of driving variables for wetland distribution and investigated the relative importance of climatic factors and human activity factors in driving historical wetland distribution changes. We predicted wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities over the 21st century using the Random Forest model in a mid- and high-latitude region of Northeast China. Climate change scenarios included three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on five general circulation models (GCMs) downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). The three scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) predicted radiative forcing to peak at 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m2 by the 2100s, respectively. Our results showed that the variables with high importance scores were agricultural population proportion, warmness index, distance to water body, coldness index, and annual mean precipitation; climatic variables were given higher importance scores than human activity variables on average. Average predicted wetland area among three emission scenarios were 340,000 ha, 123,000 ha, and 113,000 ha for the 2040s, 2070s, and 2100s, respectively. Average change percent in predicted wetland area among three periods was greatest under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario followed by RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios, which were 78{\%}, 64{\%}, and 55{\%}, respectively. Losses in predicted wetland distribution were generally around agricultural lands and expanded continually from the north to the whole region over time, while the gains were mostly associated with grasslands and water in the most southern region. In conclusion, climatic factors had larger effects than human activity factors on historical wetland distribution changes and wetland distributions were predicted to decline remarkably over time under climate change scenarios. Our findings have important implications for wetland resource management and restoration because predictions of future wetland changes are needed for wetlands management planning.},
author = {Zhao, Dandan and He, Hong and Wang, Wen and Wang, Lei and Du, Haibo and Liu, Kai and Zong, Shengwei},
doi = {10.3390/su10030863},
issn = {2071-1050},
journal = {Sustainability},
keywords = {Climate change,Human activities,Mid-and high-latitudes,Wetland distribution},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {863},
title = {{Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/3/863},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhao2018GRL,
abstract = {The size of a tropical cyclone (TC), measured by the area of either rainfall or wind, is an important indicator for the potential damage by TC. Modeling studies suggested that aerosols tend to enhance rainfall in the outer rainbands, which enlarges the eyewall radius and expands the extent of rainfall area. However, no observational evidence has yet been reported. Using TC rainfall area and aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, we find that aerosols have a distinguishable footprint in the TC size. Other dynamical factors for TC size, such as relative SST and Coriolis parameter, are also quantified and discussed. We show that, on average, TC rainfall size increases 9–20 km for each 0.1 increase of AOD in the western North Pacific. This finding implies that anthropogenic aerosol pollution can increase not only TC rainfall rate, but also TC rainfall area, resulting in potentially more destructive flooding affecting larger areas.},
author = {Zhao, Chuanfeng and Lin, Yanluan and Wu, Fang and Wang, Yang and Li, Zhanqing and Rosenfeld, Daniel and Wang, Yuan},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079427},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = { optical depth,rainfall area,rainfall intensity western North Pacific},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {8604--8611},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Enlarging Rainfall Area of Tropical Cyclones by Atmospheric Aerosols}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL079427 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL079427},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zheng2018,
author = {Zheng, Xiao-Tong and Hui, Chang and Yeh, Sang-Wook},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3859-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jun},
number = {11-12},
pages = {4019--4035},
title = {{Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3859-7},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zheng2020,
abstract = {Studying precipitation diurnal variation characteristics is crucial to better understand their formation mechanism. Moreover, it is fundamental in assessing regional climate variability and to validate the effectiveness of cloud and precipitation parameterization schemes in weather and climate models. Based on observational data from 2008 to 2017, this manuscript objective is to assess the aerosol effects on summer precipitation on an hourly-scale diurnal variation basis in the Beijing metropolitan area. The results put in evidence that the precipitation frequency and duration on polluted days were 25.0{\%} and 14.8{\%} lower with respect to clean days. No significant differences were observed in total daily accumulated rainfall between clear and polluted days. While heavy precipitation mean intensity on polluted days increased by 13.5{\%}, which is potentially linked with aerosol microphysical effects. Note that precipitation occurs earlier on polluted days, with peak time of 1 ∼ 2-hour in advance compared with clean days over the urban areas of Beijing, which may be primarily ascribed to the influence of advanced turning local circulation of mountain-valley breezes and urban heat island circulation due to aerosol-radiation effects.},
author = {Zheng, Zuofang and Zhao, Chun and Lolli, Simone and Wang, Xiaodong and Wang, Yaoting and Ma, Xiaoyan and Li, Qingchun and Yang, Yuanjian},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab99fc},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {9},
pages = {94053},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Diurnal variation of summer precipitation modulated by air pollution: observational evidences in the beijing metropolitan area}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab99fc},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zhou2019GRL,
abstract = {The flow of fresh groundwater to the ocean through the coast (fresh submarine groundwater discharge or fresh SGD) plays an important role in global biogeochemical cycles and coastal water quality. In addition to delivering dissolved elements from land to sea, fresh SGD forms a natural barrier against salinization of coastal aquifers. Here we estimate groundwater discharge rates through the near‐global coast (60°N to 60°S) at high resolution using a water budget approach. We find that tropical coasts export more than 56{\%} of all fresh SGD, while midlatitude arid regions export only 10{\%}. Fresh SGD rates from tectonically active margins (coastlines along tectonic plate boundaries) are also significantly greater than passive margins, where most field studies have been focused. Active margins combine rapid uplift and weathering with high rates of fresh SGD and may therefore host exceptionally large groundwater‐borne solute fluxes to the coast.},
annote = {* Almost half of fresh submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) enters the ocean at wet equatorial regions
* High‐relief, tectonically active margins have higher ratios of fresh SGD to river discharge
* Total annual volume of fresh SGD is {\~{}}489 km3/year, or {\~{}}1{\%} of river discharge},
author = {Zhou, YaoQuan and Sawyer, Audrey H. and David, C{\'{e}}dric H. and Famiglietti, James S.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL082749},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5855--5863},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({\{}AGU{\}})},
title = {{Fresh Submarine Groundwater Discharge to the Near‐Global Coast}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL082749},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhou2016e,
abstract = {Abstract. The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.},
author = {Zhou, Tianjun and Turner, Andrew G. and Kinter, James L. and Wang, Bin and Qian, Yun and Chen, Xiaolong and Wu, Bo and Wang, Bin and Liu, Bo and Zou, Liwei and He, Bian},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3589-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {3589--3604},
title = {{GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project}},
url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/3589/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zhou2021,
abstract = {Global warming alters surface water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P–E) and hence freshwater resources. However, the influence of land–atmosphere feedbacks on future P–E changes and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we demonstrate that soil moisture (SM) strongly impacts future P–E changes, especially in drylands, by regulating evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture inflow. Using modelling and empirical approaches, we find a consistent negative SM feedback on P–E, which may offset {\~{}}60{\%} of the decline in dryland P–E otherwise expected in the absence of SM feedbacks. The negative feedback is not caused by atmospheric thermodynamic responses to declining SM; rather, reduced SM, in addition to limiting evapotranspiration, regulates atmospheric circulation and vertical ascent to enhance moisture transport into drylands. This SM effect is a large source of uncertainty in projected dryland P–E changes, underscoring the need to better constrain future SM changes and improve the representation of SM–atmosphere processes in models.},
annote = {Negative soil moisture-atmospheric circulation feedback on water availability decline in drylands},
author = {Zhou, Sha and Williams, A. Park and Lintner, Benjamin R. and Berg, Alexis M. and Zhang, Yao and Keenan, Trevor F. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Hagemann, Stefan and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Gentine, Pierre},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-00945-z},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {1},
pages = {38--44},
title = {{Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00945-z},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Zhou2017d,
abstract = {Precipitation is expected to increase under global warming. However, large discrepancies in precipitation sensitivities to global warming among observations and models have been reported, partly owing to the large natural variability of precipitation, which accounts for over 90{\%} of its total variance in China. Here, the authors first elucidated precipitation sensitivities to the long-term warming trend and interannual-decadal variations of surface air temperature Ta over China based on daily data from approximately 2000 stations from 1961 to 2014. The results show that the number of dry, trace, and light precipitation days has stronger sensitivities to the warming trend than to the Ta interannual-decadal variation, with 14.1{\%}, -35.7{\%}, and -14.6{\%} K-1 versus 2.7{\%}, -7.9{\%}, and -3.1{\%} K-1, respectively. Total precipitation frequency has significant sensitivities to the warming trend (-18.5{\%} K-1) and the Ta interannual-decadal variation (-3.6{\%} K-1) over China. However, very heavy precipitation frequencies exhibit larger sensitivities to the Ta interannual-decadal variation than to the long-term trend over Northwest and Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau. A warming trend boosts precipitation intensity, especially for light precipitation (9.8{\%} K-1). Total precipitation intensity increases significantly by 13.1{\%} K-1 in response to the warming trend and by 3.3{\%} K-1 in response to the Ta interannual-decadal variation. Very heavy precipitation intensity also shows significant sensitivity to the interannual-decadal variation of Ta (3.7{\%} K-1), particularly in the cold season (8.0{\%} K-1). Combining precipitation frequency and intensity, total precipitation amount has a negligible sensitivity to the warming trend, and the consequent trend in China is limited. Moderate and heavy precipitation amounts are dominated by their frequencies.},
author = {Zhou, Chunl{\"{u}}e and Wang, Kaicun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0515.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate variability,Decadal variability,Hydrologic cycle,Interannual variability},
month = {apr},
number = {10},
pages = {3687--3703},
title = {{Quantifying the sensitivity of precipitation to the long-term warming trend and interannual-decadal variation of surface air temperature over China}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0515.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zhou2018c,
abstract = {Human-induced warming and El Ni{\~{n}}o may have substantially increased the probability of the occurrence of such events as the July 2016 extreme precipitation over China's Wuhan.},
author = {Zhou, Chunl{\"{u}}e and Wang, Kaicun and Qi, Dan},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0090.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {S107--S112},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Attribution of the July 2016 Extreme Precipitation Event Over China's Wuhang}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0090.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0090.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhou2019,
abstract = {Under anthropogenic warming, deep-tropical ascent of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is projected to contract equatorward1–3 while subtropical descent associated with the Hadley cell edge is predicted to expand poleward4. These changes have important implications for regional climate2,5–7, but their mechanisms are not well understood. Here we reveal a key role of enhanced equatorial surface warming (EEW) in driving the deep-tropical contraction and modulating the Hadley expansion. By shifting the seasonally warmed sea surface temperature equatorward, EEW reduces the meridional migration of the seasonal ITCZ and causes an annual-mean deep-tropical contraction. This process further contracts the subtropical circulation, as seen during El Ni{\~{n}}o, and counteracts the Hadley expansion caused by the global-scale warming. The EEW-induced contraction even dominates in the Northern Hemisphere early summer (June–July), when atmospheric circulation responses to the global-scale warming are weak8. Regionally, this alters the East Asian summer monsoon, shifting both the subtropical jet and Meiyu–Baiu rainband equatorward. Among models in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project9, the degrees of the equatorward shift in the ITCZ, the early-summer subtropical circulation and the East Asian summer monsoon are correlated with EEW. Our results suggest that a better constraint on EEW is critical for accurate projection of tropical and subtropical climate change.},
author = {Zhou, Wenyu and Xie, Shang-Ping and Yang, Da},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0603-9},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {834--839},
title = {{Enhanced equatorial warming causes deep-tropical contraction and subtropical monsoon shift}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0603-9 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0603-9},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhou2020a,
abstract = {Abstract This study synthesizes the observed trends and projected changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZs). Under future warming, the seasonal ITCZs are projected to shift equatorward, widen and weaken. The equatorward-shifted seasonal ITCZs cause a squeeze of the annual-mean zonal-mean tropical ascent. Over 1979-2014, the seasonal ITCZs have instead shifted poleward in South Pacific and generally narrowed and strengthened. The observed annual-mean zonal-mean changes are largely opposite to the future squeeze. Such contrasting ITCZ changes are attributed to the distinct tropical warming patterns. Specifically, the equatorial Pacific has cooled following a phase change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but will warm more than the tropics in future. The ITCZ response to tropical warming pattern is consistent with thermodynamic/energetic theories and demonstrated through SST-forced experiments. In the coming decades, a positive PDO can act jointly with anthropogenically-forced equatorial warming, leading to substantial ITCZ changes that are distinct from recent trends.},
author = {Zhou, Wenyu and Leung, L Ruby and Lu, Jian and Yang, Da and Song, Fengfei},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL089846},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {PDO,climate change and variability,tropical circulation,tropical warming pattern},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {e2020GL089846},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Contrasting Recent and Future ITCZ Changes From Distinct Tropical Warming Patterns}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089846 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL089846},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zhou2019b,
abstract = {Compound extremes such as cooccurring soil drought (low soil moisture) and atmospheric aridity (high vapor pressure deficit) can be disastrous for natural and societal systems. Soil drought and atmospheric aridity are 2 main physiological stressors driving widespread vegetation mortality and reduced terrestrial carbon uptake. Here, we empirically demonstrate that strong negative coupling between soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit occurs globally, indicating high probability of cooccurring soil drought and atmospheric aridity. Using the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we further show that concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity are greatly exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks. The feedback of soil drought on the atmosphere is largely responsible for enabling atmospheric aridity extremes. In addition, the soil moisture–precipitation feedback acts to amplify precipitation and soil moisture deficits in most regions. CMIP5 models further show that the frequency of concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity enhanced by land–atmosphere feedbacks is projected to increase in the 21st century. Importantly, land–atmosphere feedbacks will greatly increase the intensity of both soil drought and atmospheric aridity beyond that expected from changes in mean climate alone.},
author = {Zhou, Sha and Williams, A. Park and Berg, Alexis M. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Zhang, Yao and Hagemann, Stefan and Lorenz, Ruth and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Gentine, Pierre},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1904955116},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Compound extreme events,GLACE-CMIP5,Soil moisture,Vapor pressure deficit},
month = {sep},
number = {38},
pages = {18848--18853},
pmid = {31481606},
title = {{Land–atmosphere feedbacks exacerbate concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1904955116},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Zhou2017c,
abstract = {The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) has exhibited robust inter-decadal changes. In this paper, the authors present a review on our current understanding of the observed changes. The weakening phase of the EASM in the 2nd half of the 20th century is demonstrated to be primarily forced by the positive phase of IPO (Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation) /PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), and secondarily driven by the increased aerosol emission. The dominance of IPO/PDO to EASM is also evidenced by the recent recovery of EASM since the 1990s, associated with the transition of IPO/PDO from positive to negative phases. Both data diagnosis and numerical model experiments indicate that the decadal change of EASM is dominated by internal variability mode of IPO/PDO and also partly driven by anthropogenic external forcings. The IPO/PDO is traditionally regarded as internal climate variability mode at decadal time scale, but recent studies suggested that external forcings may also trigger the phase transition of IPO/PDO, this has posed a new issue calling for further study. In addition to long-term changes, the EASM also exhibits inter-decadal shift of interannual variability mode. The suggested mechanisms are reviewed, including changes in mean circulation, interannual variability and its ENSO relationship, and the climatological intraseasonal oscillation.},
address = {Singapore},
author = {Zhou, Tianjun and Song, Fengfei and Ha, Kyung-Ja and Chen, Xiaolong},
booktitle = {The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast (3rd Edition)},
doi = {10.1142/9789813200913_0026},
editor = {Chang, Chih-Pei and Kuo, Hung-Chi and Lau, Ngar-Cheung and Johnson, Richard H and Wang, Bin and Wheeler, Matthew C},
month = {mar},
pages = {327--336},
publisher = {World Scientific},
title = {{Decadal Change of East Asian Summer Monsoon: Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing}},
url = {http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/9789813200913{\_}0026},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zhou2017a,
abstract = {The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 (CMIP5). The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene (MP) and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIP5, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change projections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.},
author = {Zhou, Tianjun and Chen, Xiaolong and Wu, Bo and Guo, Zhun and Sun, Yong and Zou, Liwei and Man, Wenmin and Zhang, Lixia and He, Chao},
doi = {10.1016/J.ENG.2017.05.018},
issn = {2095-8099},
journal = {Engineering},
keywords = {Climate projection,Coupled climate model,East Asian monsoon,El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation,Past climate change,Regional climate model,Western North Pacific climate},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {773--778},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095809917307312 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095809917307312?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{zn98,
author = {Zhu, Yong and Newell, Reginald E},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0725:APAFMF>2.0.CO;2},
issn = {0027-0644},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {725--735},
title = {{A Proposed Algorithm for Moisture Fluxes from Atmospheric Rivers}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126{\%}3C0725:APAFMF{\%}3E2.0.CO;2},
volume = {126},
year = {1998}
}
@article{zpmhzc16,
author = {Zhu, Zaichun and Piao, Shilong and Myneni, Ranga B and Huang, Mengtian and Zeng, Zhenzhong and Canadell, Josep G. and Ciais, Philippe and Sitch, Stephen and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Arneth, Almut and Cao, Chunxiang and Cheng, Lei and Kato, Etsushi and Koven, Charles and Li, Yue and Lian, Xu and Liu, Yongwen and Liu, Ronggao and Mao, Jiafu and Pan, Yaozhong and Peng, Shushi and Pe{\~{n}}uelas, Josep and Poulter, Benjamin and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Stocker, Benjamin D. and Viovy, Nicolas and Wang, Xuhui and Wang, Yingping and Xiao, Zhiqiang and Yang, Hui and Zaehle, S{\"{o}}nke and Zeng, Ning},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3004},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {791--795},
title = {{Greening of the Earth and its drivers}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3004},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{zkps05,
abstract = {The stability of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated by means of a box model of the tropical atmosphere. At the heart of this model is the moistureadvection feedback which allows for the existence of two stable regimes: besides the ‘‘wet'' summer monsoon, a stable state exists which is characterized by low precipitation. The model is employed for the identification of changes in the qualitative systems behavior in response to changes in boundary conditions. The most notable result is the occurrence of saddle-node bifurcations against changes in those quantities which govern the heat balance of the system, i.e., the planetary albedo, the insolation, and the CO2 concentration. These findings are remarkable insofar as they indicate that anthropogenic perturbations of the planetary albedo, such as sulphur emissions and/or land-use changes, or natural variations in insolation and CO2 concentration could trigger abrupt transitions between different monsoon regimes},
author = {Zickfeld, K. and Knopf, B. and Petoukhov, V. and Schellnhuber, H. J.},
doi = {10.1029/2005GL022771},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {15},
pages = {L15707},
title = {{Is the Indian summer monsoon stable against global change?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2005GL022771},
volume = {32},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Zika2018,
abstract = {Changes in the global water cycle critically impact environmental, agricultural, and energy systems relied upon by humanity (Jime ́ nez Cisneros et al 2014 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)). Understanding recent water cycle change is essential in constraining future projections. Warming-induced water cycle change is expected to amplify the pattern of sea surface salinity (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8). A puzzle has, however, emerged. The surface salinity pattern has amplified by 5{\%}–8{\%} since the 1950s (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8, Skliris et al 2014 Clim. Dyn. 43 709–36) while the water cycle is thought to have amplified at close to half that rate (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8, Skliris et al 2016 Sci. Rep. 6 752). This discrepancy is also replicated in climate projections of the 21st century (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8). Using targeted numerical ocean model experiments we find that, while surface water fluxes due to water cycle change and ice mass loss amplify the surface salinity pattern, ocean warming exerts a substantial influence. Warming increases near-surface stratification, inhibiting the decay of existing salinity contrasts and further amplifying surface salinity patterns. Observed ocean warming can explain approximately half of observed surface salinity pattern changes from 1957–2016 with ice mass loss playing a minor role. Water cycle change of 3.6{\%} ± 2.1{\%} per degree Celsius of surface air temperature change is sufficient to explain the remaining observed salinity pattern change.},
annote = {ocean salinity pattern linked to warming-stratification effect as well as amplification of P-E patterns},
author = {Zika, Jan D. and Skliris, Nikolaos and Blaker, Adam T. and Marsh, Robert and Nurser, A. J.George and Josey, Simon A.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aace42},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate change,Ocean Ocean warming,Water cycle},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {074036},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Improved estimates of water cycle change from ocean salinity: The key role of ocean warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aace42},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zilli2021,
abstract = {Evidence of a poleward shift in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) has been identified in observational studies and historical and future scenarios of global climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), indicating an increase (decrease) in the frequency of precipitation events over Southeastern South America (Eastern Brazil). This study evaluates the contribution of natural variability and anthropogenic-related forcings to precipitation trends in the SACZ in the 20th century based on historical, natural, and pre-industrial simulations from CMIP5 models. Only CMIP5 models that accurately reproduce the observed precipitation climatology over the SACZ, as represented by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 2.2 (GPCP), are considered. Four out of the seventeen CMIP5 models investigated here realistically simulate precipitation rates over the SACZ during summer (December to February) and only three of these models are able to correctly simulate the observed southwestward shift of the SACZ. Despite large uncertainties in the simulated precipitation trends over the SACZ, the results indicate the dominant influence of the natural variability on the drying over the SACZ region, with the anthropogenic forcing contributing to (partially offsetting) precipitation trends along the northern (southern) margin, resulting in a poleward shift of the SACZ. Nevertheless, the large uncertainty in the simulated precipitation over the region suggest that not all mechanisms related to the position and intensity of the SACZ events are well captured by the CMIP5 models analyzed here.},
author = {Zilli, Marcia T. and Carvalho, Leila M. V.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.7007},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {3085--3106},
title = {{Detection and attribution of precipitation trends associated with the poleward shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone using CMIP5 simulations}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.7007},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Zilli2019,
abstract = {During austral summer (December–January–February or DJF), intense precipitation over central-eastern Brazil is modulated by the South American Monsoon System and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Previous studies identified spatial variability in precipitation trends over this region, suggestive of a poleward shift of the SACZ in recent years. To identify underlying mechanisms associated with changes in the precipitation intensity and position of the SACZ, decadal averages of observed precipitation and the mean state of the atmosphere and ocean during three different periods from 1979 to 2014 are compared. Results show evidence of decreasing (increasing) average daily precipitation along the equatorward (poleward) margin of the climatological SACZ, likely related to a poleward shift of the convergence zone. Precipitation reduction along the equatorward margin of the SACZ is associated with weakening of the poleward winds along the eastern Brazilian coast and drying of low-to-mid troposphere (700 hPa) over the tropical Atlantic. These changes in circulation and moisture are likely related to the poleward expansion of the South Atlantic Subtropical High.},
author = {Zilli, Marcia T and Carvalho, Leila M V and Lintner, Benjamin R},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4277-1},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {5},
pages = {2545--2563},
title = {{The poleward shift of South Atlantic Convergence Zone in recent decades}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4277-1},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zittis2018,
abstract = {The present study investigates the century-long and more recent rainfall trends over the greater region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Five up-to-date gridded observational datasets are employed. Besides mean annual values, trends of six indices of drought and extreme precipitation are also considered in the analysis. Most important findings include the significant negative trends over the Maghreb, Levant, Arabian Peninsula, and Sahel regions that are evident since the beginning of the twentieth century and are more or less extended to today. On the other hand, for some Mediterranean regions such as the Balkans and the Anatolian Plateau, precipitation records during the most recent decades indicate a significant increasing trend and a recovering from the dry conditions that occurred during the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. The fact that over parts of the study region the selected datasets were found to have substantial differences in terms of mean climate, trends, and interannual variability, motivated the more thorough investigation of the precipitation observational uncertainty. Several aspects, such as annual and monthly mean climatologies and also discrepancies in the monthly time-series distribution, are discussed using common methods in the field of climatology but also more sophisticated, nonparametric approaches such as the Kruskal–Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results indicate that in the best case, the data sources are found to have statistically significant differences in the distribution of monthly precipitation for about 50{\%} of the study region extent. This percentage is increased up to 70{\%} when particular datasets are compared. Indicatively, the range between the tested rainfall datasets is found to be more than 20{\%} of their mean annual values for most of the extent of MENA, while locally, for the hyper-arid regions, this percentage is increased up to 100{\%}. Precipitation observational uncertainty is also profound for parts of southern Europe. Outlier datasets over individual regions are identified in order to be more cautiously used in future regional climate studies.},
author = {Zittis, G.},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-017-2333-0},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {nov},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1207--1230},
title = {{Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-017-2333-0},
volume = {134},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zolina2014,
abstract = {The STAMMEX (Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe) project has developed a high-resolution gridded long-term precipitation dataset based on the daily-observing precipitation network of the German Weather Service DWD, which runs one of the world's densest rain gauge networks, comprising more than 7,500 stations. Several quality-controlled daily gridded products with homogenized sampling were developed covering the periods 1931?onward (with 0.5° resolution), 1951?onward (0.5° and 0.25°), and 1971?2000 (0.5°, 0.25°, and 0.1°). Different methods were tested to select the best gridding methodology that minimizes errors of integral grid estimates over hilly terrain. Besides daily precipitation values with uncertainty estimates, the STAMMEX datasets include a variety of statistics that characterize temporal and spatial dynamics of the precipitation distribution (quantiles, extremes, wet/ dry spells, etc.). Comparisons with existing continental-scale daily precipitation grids (e.g., CRU, ECA E-OBS, GCOS)?which include considerably less observations compared to those used in STAMMEX?demonstrate the added value of high-resolution grids for extreme rainfall analyses. These data exhibit spatial variability patterns and trends in precipitation extremes, which are missed or incorrectly reproduced over Central Europe from coarser resolution grids based on sparser networks. The STAMMEX dataset can be used for high-quality climate diagnostics of precipitation variability, as a reference for reanalyses and remotely sensed precipitation products (including the upcoming Global Precipitation Mission products), and for input into regional climate and operational weather forecast models.},
author = {Zolina, Olga and Simmer, Clemens and Kapala, Alice and Shabanov, Pavel and Becker, Paul and M{\"{a}}cHel, Hermann and Gulev, Sergey and Groisman, Pavel},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00134.1},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {7},
pages = {995--1002},
title = {{Precipitation variability and extremes in Central Europe: New View from STAMMEX Results}},
volume = {95},
year = {2014}
}
@article{zwktyl19,
author = {Zou, Yufei and Wang, Yuhang and Ke, Ziming and Tian, Hanqin and Yang, Jia and Liu, Yongqiang},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001368},
issn = {1942-2466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {417--445},
title = {{Development of a REgion‐Specific Ecosystem Feedback Fire (RESFire) Model in the Community Earth System Model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001368 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018MS001368},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zuo2019JClim,
abstract = {Understanding the influence of volcanic eruptions on the hydroclimate over global monsoon regions is of great scientific and social importance. However, the link between the latitude of volcanic eruptions and related hydroclimate changes over global monsoon regions in the last millennium remains inconclusive. Here we show divergent hydroclimate responses after different volcanic eruptions based on large sets of reconstructions, observations, and climate model simulation. Both the proxy and observations show that Northern Hemispheric (Southern Hemispheric) monsoon precipitation is weakened by northern (southern) and tropical eruptions but is enhanced by the southern (northern) eruptions. A similar relationship is found in coupled model simulations driven by volcanic forcing. The model evidence indicates that the dynamic processes related to changes in atmospheric circulation play a dominant role in precipitation responses. The dry conditions over the Northern Hemisphere (Southern Hemisphere) and global monsoon regions following northern (southern) and tropical eruptions are induced through weakened monsoon circulation. The wet conditions over Northern Hemispheric (Southern Hemispheric) monsoon regions after southern (northern) eruptions are caused by the enhanced cross-equator flow. We extend our model simulation analysis from mean state precipitation to extreme precipitation and find that the response of the extreme precipitation is consistent with that of the mean precipitation but is more sensitive over monsoon regions. The response of surface runoff and net primary production is stronger than that of precipitation over some submonsoon regions. Our results imply that it is imperative to consider the potential volcanic eruptions at different hemispheres in the design of near-term decadal climate prediction experiments.},
annote = {multi-century paleoclimate data confirms tropical eruptions strengthen monsoon precipitation in the opposite hemisphere and weaken it in the opposite hemisphere, explained through modellling by changes in circulation and cross equatorial moisture transport},
author = {Zuo, Meng and Zhou, Tianjun and Man, Wenmin},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-18-0707.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Monsoons,Paleoclimate,Precipitation,Volcanoes},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {4367--4385},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Hydroclimate responses over global monsoon regions following volcanic eruptions at different latitudes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0707.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zuo2013,
abstract = {The widely applied Webster–Yang index (WYI), which measures the broad-scale dynamical features of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), has experienced robust interannual and interdecadal variations and a decreasing tendency, with apparent shifts in 1972. The WYI exhibits moderate variability and frequent positive phases before 1972, intensive interannual variability during 1972–98, and an obvious decreasing tendency and mainly negative phase afterward. The vertical shear easterly anomalies over the tropics/subtropics and the anomalous vertical shear anticyclonic circulation over Eurasia (Eu) are the background for the decreasing WYI, associated with reduced summer precipitation around the Bay of Bengal and Sumatra. On interdecadal time scales, the negative (positive) Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is characterized by cooling (warming) in Eurasian tropospheric temperature (TT) via the North Atlantic Oscillation. Global warming manipulates the increasing tendency and the interannual variability of TT over the Indian Ocean (IO). The mutual effects of AMO on Eurasian TT and global warming on Indian Ocean TT correspond to the similar decreasing tendency and interdecadal shift of the difference in TT between Eurasia and the Indian Ocean (EuTT − IOTT) with those of the ASM. Thus, the AMO and global warming seem to cause the interdecadal variability of ASM. Although the interannual relationship between Ni{\~{n}}o-3 SST and ASM weakens recently as a result of the weakening tendency of ASM, the Ni{\~{n}}o-3 SST still plays an important role in ASM variability via EuTT − IOTT anomalies. In addition, the WYI in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis shows a larger decreasing tendency for 1999–2010 compared to other reanalysis products, a plausible reason for the inconsistent variations between land–sea thermal contrast and the NCEP–NCAR WYI during that period.},
author = {Zuo, Zhiyan and Yang, Song and Zhang, Renhe and Jiang, Pinping and Zhang, Li and Wang, Fang},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00691.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {8947--8961},
title = {{Long-Term Variations of Broad-Scale Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and Possible Causes}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/26/22/8947/34076/LongTerm-Variations-of-BroadScale-Asian-Summer},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}