@book{Troccoli2018b,
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-68418-5},
editor = {Troccoli, Alberto},
isbn = {978-3-319-68417-8},
pages = {197},
publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan},
title = {{Weather {\&} Climate Services for the Energy Industry}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-68418-5},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{BushE.andLemmenD.S.2019a,
abstract = {There are a number of feedbacks in the climate system, operating on a wide range of timescales, from hours to centuries (Cubasch et al., 2013; see, in particular, Fig 1.2 and associated text in this reference). Important positive feedbacks that have contributed to warming over the Industrial Era include the water vapour feedback (water vapour, a strong GHG, increases with climate warming) and the snow/ice albedo feedback (snow and ice diminish with climate warming, decreasing surface albedo) (see Box 2.3). There is very high confidence that the net feedback — that is, the sum of the important feedbacks operating on century timescales — is positive, amplifying global warming (Flato et al., 2013; Fahey et al., 2017). Some feedbacks are expected to become increasingly important as climate warming continues this century and beyond. These include feedbacks that change how rapidly the land and ocean can remove CO2 from the atmosphere and those that may lead to additional emissions of CO2 and other GHGs, such as from thawing permafrost (Ciais et al., 2013; Fahey et al., 2017) (see Chapter 5, Section 5.6)},
address = {Ottawa, ON, Canada},
editor = {Bush, E. and Lemmen, D.S.},
isbn = {978-0-660-30222-5},
pages = {444},
publisher = {Government of Canada},
title = {{Canada's Changing Climate Report}},
url = {https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{Forbes2011,
abstract = {The Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone Project, LOICZ, is a Core Project of the “International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme” (IGBP) and the “International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change” (IHDP) of the International Council for Science and the International Social Science Council. The LOICZ IPO is hosted and financially supported by the Institute of Coastal Research, at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany, a member of the Helmholtz Association of National Research Centres. Reproduction of this publication for educational or other, non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior permission from the copyright holders. Reproduction for resale or other purposes is prohibited without the prior, written permission of the copyright holders.},
address = {Geesthacht, Germany},
editor = {Forbes, D.L.},
isbn = {978-3-9813637-2-2},
keywords = {Oceans,Projects,Terrestrial},
pages = {178},
publisher = {International Arctic Science Committee, Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, International Permafrost Association. Helmholtz-Zentrum},
title = {{State of the Arctic Coast 2010 – Scientific Review and Outlook}},
url = {http://www.arcticcoasts.org/},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Avila2019,
abstract = {This study aims to identify spatial and temporal precipitation trends by analyzing eight extreme climate indices of rainfall in the High Basin of the Cauca River in Southwestern Colombia from 1970 to 2013. The relation between historical floods and El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also analyzed. Results indicate that in general, the reduction of precipitation, especially in the center of the basin with negative annual and seasonal trends in intensity indices, namely, the annual maximum 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day) and annual maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day). Sixty-four percentage of the stations exhibit an increasing trend in September–October–November in the consecutive dry days. In December–January–February interval, positive trends in most of the stations is noted for total precipitation and for the number of wet days with rainfall greater than or equal to 1 mm. The findings also show that sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific is statistically correlated (r) with indices of extreme precipitation (r ≥ −0.40). However, the effect of ENSO is evident with a time lag of 2–3 months. These results are relevant for forecasting floods on a regional scale, since changes in SST of the equatorial Pacific may take place 2–3 months ahead of the basin inundation. Our results contribute to the understanding of extreme rainfall events, hydrological hazard forecasts and climate variability in the Colombian Andes.},
author = {{\'{A}}vila, {\'{A}}lvaro and Guerrero, Faisury and Escobar, Yesid and Justino, Fl{\'{a}}vio},
doi = {10.3390/w11020379},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {379},
title = {{Recent Precipitation Trends and Floods in the Colombian Andes}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/2/379},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/joc.4554,
abstract = {ABSTRACT This study investigates the spatial and temporal characteristics of hail frequency in Serbia during the period 1949–2012. Two areas covering the whole territory of Serbia are treated: a complex terrain area (CTA) and a flat terrain area (FTA). Our research shows that the highest hail frequencies were found in the southwestern mountainous part of the country in the warm season. In the cold season, the area of maximum hail frequency lies in the region of the Sava and the Danube rivers. During the warm season, the highest hail frequencies are recorded in May and June and the smallest in August and September. This spatial pattern is influenced by the passages of the prevailing fronts, surface air temperatures and the convection enhancement by the mountains during the year. The trends of mean hail frequency are negative, except for the FTA in the dry season (August–September) and the cold season, in which nonparametric methods do not show any trends. The highest hail frequency area does not show any trend in the warm season, but interdecadal variability is significant. In general, the CTA has a greater mean hail frequency for all treated seasons. In contrast, the FTA has a greater maximum of mean hail frequency per station in the dry (August–September) and cold seasons. Although very small, the territory of Serbia also shows other peculiarities. In the last decade, the FTA has shown a strong positive trend of mean hail frequency as opposed to the CTA. This is due to the fact that the ridge of the Azores high extended over the CTA more frequently than before 2000.},
author = {{\'{C}}uri{\'{c}}, Mladjen and Janc, Dejan},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4554},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {hail frequency,interdecadal variability,spatial pattern,trend characteristics},
month = {jul},
number = {9},
pages = {3270--3279},
title = {{Hail climatology in Serbia}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.4554 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4554},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zebre2021a,
abstract = {Mountain glaciers are key indicators of climate change. Their response is revealed by the environmental equilibrium-line altitude (ELA), i.e. the regional altitude of zero mass balance averaged over a long period of time. We introduce a simple approach for distributed modelling of the environmental ELA over the entire European Alps based on the parameterization of ELA in terms of summer temperature and annual precipitation at a glacier. We use 200 years of climate records and forecasts to model environmental ELA from 1901 to 2100 at 5 arcmin grid cell resolution. Historical environmental ELAs are reconstructed based on precipitation from the Long-term Alpine Precipitation reconstruction (LAPrec) dataset and temperature from the Historical Instrumental climatological Surface Time series of the greater Alpine region (HISTALP). The simulations of future environmental ELAs are forced with high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections for the European domain using three different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP). Our reconstructions yielded an environmental ELA across the European Alps of 2980 m above sea level for the period 1901−1930, with a rise of 114 m in the period 1971−2000. The environmental ELA is projected to exceed the maximum elevation of 69{\%}, 81{\%} and 92{\%} of the glaciers in the European Alps by 2071−2100 under mitigation (RCP2.6), stabilization (RCP4.5) and high greenhouse gas emission (RCP8.5) scenarios, respectively.},
author = {{\v{Z}}ebre, Manja and Colucci, Renato R. and Giorgi, Filippo and Glasser, Neil F. and Racoviteanu, Adina E. and {Del Gobbo}, Costanza},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05525-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1183--1201},
title = {{200 years of equilibrium-line altitude variability across the European Alps (1901−2100)}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05525-7},
volume = {56},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Aalto2017,
abstract = {The periglacial realm is a major part of the cryosphere, covering a quarter of Earth's land surface. Cryogenic land surface processes (LSPs) control landscape development, ecosystem functioning and climate through biogeochemical feedbacks, but their response to contemporary climate change is unclear. Here, by statistically modelling the current and future distributions of four major LSPs unique to periglacial regions at fine scale, we show fundamental changes in the periglacial climate realm are inevitable with future climate change. Even with the most optimistic CO2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72{\%} reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks.},
author = {Aalto, Juha and Harrison, Stephan and Luoto, Miska},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-00669-3},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {515},
title = {{Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100}},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Abatzoglou2016,
abstract = {Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75{\%} more forested area experiencing high ({\textgreater}1 $\sigma$) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55{\%} of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.},
author = {Abatzoglou, John T and Williams, A Park},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1607171113},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {attribution,climate change,forests,wildfire},
month = {oct},
number = {42},
pages = {11770--11775},
pmid = {27791053},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27791053 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC5081637 http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1607171113},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Abatzoglou2019,
abstract = {Changes in global fire activity are influenced by a multitude of factors including land-cover change, policies, and climatic conditions. This study uses 17 climate models to evaluate when changes in fire weather, as realized through the Fire Weather Index (FWI), emerge from the expected range of internal variability due to anthropogenic climate change using the time of emergence framework. Anthropogenic increases in extreme FWI days emerge for 22{\%} of burnable land area globally by 2019, including much of the Mediterranean and the Amazon. By the mid-21st century, emergence among the different FWI metrics occurs for 33-62{\%} of burnable lands. Emergence of heightened fire weather becomes more widespread as a function of global temperature change. At 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the area of emergence is half that for 3°C. These results highlight increases in fire weather conditions with human-caused climate change and incentivize local adaptation efforts to limit detrimental fire impacts.},
doi: 10.1029/2018GL080959},
author = {Abatzoglou, John T and Williams, A Park and Barbero, Renaud},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL080959},
isbn = {0000000175999},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,climate modeling,fire,natural variability},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {326--336},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL080959 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080959},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Abegg2020,
abstract = {Indicators are widely used in climate variability and climate change assessments to simplify the tracking of complex processes and phenomena in the state of the environment. Apart from the climatic criteria, the snow indicators in ski tourism have been increasingly extended with elements that relate to the technical, operational, and commercial aspects of ski tourism. These non-natural influencing factors have gained in importance in comparison with the natural environmental conditions but are more difficult to comprehend in time and space, resulting in limited explanatory power of the related indicators when applied for larger/longer scale assessments. We review the existing indicator approaches to derive quantitative measures for the snow conditions in ski areas, to formulate the criteria that the indicators should fulfill, and to provide a list of indicators with their technical specifications which can be used in snow condition assessments for ski tourism. For the use of these indicators, a three-step procedure consisting of definition, application, and interpretation is suggested. We also provide recommendations for the design of indicator-based assessments of climate change effects on ski tourism. Thereby, we highlight the importance of extensive stakeholder involvement to allow for real-world relevance of the achieved results.},
author = {Abegg, B. and Morin, S. and Demiroglu, O. C. and Fran{\c{c}}ois, H. and Rothleitner, M. and Strasser, U.},
doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01867-3},
issn = {0020-7128},
journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
keywords = {Climate variability and change,Ski tourism,Snow indicators,Stakeholder process},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {691--701},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Overloaded! Critical revision and a new conceptual approach for snow indicators in ski tourism}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01867-3 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00484-020-01867-3 https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00484-020-01867-3},
volume = {65},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Abiodun2019,
abstract = {Reliable drought projections are crucial for the effective managements of future drought risk. Most of the existing drought projections over Southern Africa are based on precipitation alone, neglecting the influence of potential evapotranspiration (PET). The present study shows that inclusion of PET may alter the magnitude and robustness of the drought projections. The study used two drought indices to project potential impacts of global warming on Southern African droughts, focusing on four major river basins. One of the drought indices (SPEI: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) is obtained from climate water balance (i.e. precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) while the other (SPI: Standardized Precipitation Index) is calculated from precipitation alone. For the projections, we analyzed multi-model regional climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) at four specific global warming levels (GWLs) (i.e., 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C) above the pre-industrial level and used the self-organizing maps to classify the drought projections into groups based on their similarities. Our results show that the CORDEX simulations give a realistic representation of all the necessary climate variables for quantifying droughts over Southern Africa. The simulations project a robust increase in SPEI drought intensity and frequency over Southern Africa and indicate that the magnitude of the projection increases with increasing GWLs, especially over the various river basins. In contrast, they project a non-significant change in SPI droughts at all the GWLs. The majority of the simulations clearly distinguish between the projected SPEI and SPI drought patterns, and the distinction becomes clearer with increasing GWLs. Hence, using precipitation alone for drought projection over Southern Africa may underestimate the magnitude and robustness of the projections. This study has application in mitigating climate change impacts on drought risk over Southern African river basins in the future.},
author = {Abiodun, Babatunde J. and Makhanya, Nokwethaba and Petja, Brilliant and Abatan, Abayomi A. and Oguntunde, Philip G.},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2693-0},
issn = {14344483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
keywords = {Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pol,Atmospheric Sciences,Climatology,Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control /},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1785--1799},
publisher = {Springer-Verlag Wien},
title = {{Future projection of droughts over major river basins in Southern Africa at specific global warming levels}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2693-0},
volume = {137},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Abram2021,
abstract = {The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia's hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous fire weather and ignition. The combination of climate variability and long-term climate trends generated the climate extremes experienced in 2019, and the compounding effects of two or more modes of climate variability in their fire-promoting phases (as occurred in 2019) has historically increased the chances of large forest fires occurring in southeast Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates that fire-promoting phases of tropical Pacific and Indian ocean variability are now unusually frequent compared with natural variability in pre-industrial times. Indicators of forest fire danger in southeast Australia have already emerged outside of the range of historical experience, suggesting that projections made more than a decade ago that increases in climate-driven fire risk would be detectable by 2020, have indeed eventuated. The multiple climate change contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia, as well as the observed non-linear escalation of fire extent and intensity, raise the likelihood that fire events may continue to rapidly intensify in the future. Improving local and national adaptation measures while also pursuing ambitious global climate change mitigation efforts would provide the best strategy for limiting further increases in fire risk in southeast Australia.},
author = {Abram, Nerilie J. and Henley, Benjamin J. and {Sen Gupta}, Alex and Lippmann, Tanya J. R. and Clarke, Hamish and Dowdy, Andrew J. and Sharples, Jason J. and Nolan, Rachael H. and Zhang, Tianran and Wooster, Martin J. and Wurtzel, Jennifer B. and Meissner, Katrin J. and Pitman, Andrew J. and Ukkola, Anna M. and Murphy, Brett P. and Tapper, Nigel J. and Boer, Matthias M.},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-020-00065-8},
issn = {2662-4435},
journal = {Communications Earth {\&} Environment},
keywords = {Climate,Natural hazards,change impacts},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {8},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
title = {{Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00065-8 http://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00065-8},
volume = {2},
year = {2021}
}
@article{AcarDeniz2015,
author = {{Acar Deniz}, Zahide and G{\"{o}}nen{\c{c}}gil, Barbaros},
doi = {10.1080/02723646.2015.1045285},
issn = {0272-3646},
journal = {Physical Geography},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {268--281},
title = {{Trends of summer daily maximum temperature extremes in Turkey}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02723646.2015.1045285},
volume = {36},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{AsianDevelopmentBank2018,
abstract = {Asia and the Pacific has made great strides in poverty reduction and economic growth in the past 50 years. It aspires to make even greater leaps going forward. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been a key partner in the significant transformation of the region and is committed to continue serving the region in the next phase of its development. The new long-term corporate strategy to 2030—Strategy 2030—aims to set the course for ADB's efforts to respond effectively to the region's changing needs. It builds on various assessments of ADB performance, including the Midterm Review of Strategy 2020, development effectiveness reviews (DEfRs), and studies by the Independent Evaluation Department (IED).},
address = {Manila, Philippines},
author = {ADB},
doi = {10.22617/TCS189401-2},
file = {::},
isbn = {9789292612856},
keywords = {adb,adb operations,asian development bank,corporate strategy,financial resources mobilization,focus areas,goals,guidelines,guiding principles,institutional document,institutional strategy,knowledge services,mission,one adb,operational areas,policies,priorities,private sector operations,strategy,strategy 2030,targets,value addition,values,vision},
pages = {34},
publisher = {Asian Development Bank (ADB)},
series = {Publication Stock No. TCS189401-2},
title = {{Strategy 2030: Achieving a Prosperous, Inclusive, Resilient, and Sustainable Asia and the Pacific}},
url = {https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutional-document/435391/strategy-2030-main-document.pdf},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{AsianDevelopmentBank2014,
address = {Manila, Philippines},
author = {ADB},
file = {::},
keywords = {climate change,climate change adaptation,climate risk management,screening climate risks,vulnerability assessment},
pages = {6},
publisher = {Asian Development Bank (ADB)},
series = {Publication Stock No. ARM146926-2},
title = {{Climate Risk Management in ADB Projects}},
url = {https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/148796/climate-risk-management-adb-projects.pdf},
year = {2014}
}
@techreport{AsianDevelopmentBank2020,
address = {Manila, Philippines},
author = {ADB},
doi = {10.22617/TCS200351-2},
file = {::},
isbn = {978-92-9262-508-5},
keywords = {agriculture,climate change,irrigation s,vietnam},
pages = {80},
publisher = {Asian Development Bank (ADB)},
series = {Publication Stock No. TCS200351-2},
title = {{Climate Change Risk and Adaptation Assessment for Irrigation in Southern Viet Nam: Water Efficiency Improvements in Drought-Affected Provinces}},
url = {https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/climate-change-risk-adaptation-irrigation-viet-nam.pdf},
year = {2020}
}
@article{AppeaningAddo2016,
abstract = {Coastal erosion along the Accra coast has become a chronic phenomenon that threatens both life and property. The issue has assumed a centre stage of national debate in recent times because of its impact on the coastal communities. Lack of reliable geospatial data hinders effective scientific investigations into the changing trends in the shoreline position. However, knowledge about coastal erosion, by the local people, and how far the shoreline has migrated inland over time is high in the coastal communities in Accra. This opens a new chapter in coastal erosion research to include local knowledge of the local settlers in developing sustainable coastal management. This article adopted a scientific approach to estimate rate of erosion and tested the results against perceived erosion trend by the local settlers. The study used a 1974 digital topographic map and 1996 aerial photographs. The end point rate statistical method in DSAS was used to compute the rates of change. The short-term rate of change for the 22-year period under study was estimated as -0.91 m/annum ± 0.49 m/annum. It was revealed that about 79{\%} of the shoreline is eroding, while the remaining 21{\%} is either stabilised or accreting. It emerged, from semi-structured interviews with inhabitants in the Accra coastal communities, that an average of about 30 m of coastal lands are perceived to have been lost to erosion for a period of about 20 years. This translates to a historic rate of change of about 1.5 m/year, which corroborates the results of the scientific study. Again this study has established that the local knowledge of the inhabitants, about coastal erosion, can serve as reliable information under scarcity of scientific data for coastal erosion analyses in developing countries.},
author = {Addo, Kwasi A and Addo, Irene A},
doi = {10.4102/jamba.v8i1.274},
issn = {2072-845X},
journal = {Journal of Disaster Risk Studies},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {274},
title = {{Coastal erosion management in Accra: Combining local knowledge and empirical research}},
url = {http://www.jamba.org.za/index.php/jamba/article/view/274},
volume = {8},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Aerts473,
author = {Aerts, Jeroen C J H and Botzen, W J Wouter and Emanuel, Kerry and Lin, Ning and de Moel, Hans and Michel-Kerjan, Erwann O},
doi = {10.1126/science.1248222},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
number = {6183},
pages = {473--475},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Evaluating Flood Resilience Strategies for Coastal Megacities}},
url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/344/6183/473},
volume = {344},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Agafonova2017,
abstract = {In the Russian climate, the security of populations and economic security are often limited by dangerous ice phenomena. Not only ice-jam floods, but also some processes lead to the violation of operating conditions of various facilities (water intakes, roads, bridges) and damage hydraulic structures and shipping. Currently, rivers' ice regime characteristics change under the influence of both natural (primarily climatic) and anthropogenic factors. Changes have been analyzed in detail on the basis of observations of 300 hydrological stations in the period from 1936 to 2013. Changes of ice phenomena hazards have been estimated. Hazard assessment of flooding caused by ice jams has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River reach from the Velikiy Ustyug City to Kotlas, the most problematic ice jam flooding area in European Russia. The modeling was performed on the basis of STREAM{\_}2D software complex for current conditions and taking into account the possible construction of various protective structures. Methods for the prevention of negative impact of water at the site are examined.},
author = {Agafonova, S. A. and Frolova, N. L. and Krylenko, I. N. and Sazonov, A. A. and Golovlyov, P. P.},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-016-2580-x},
issn = {0921-030X},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
keywords = {Dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena,Hydrodynamic modelling,Ice-related floods,River ice},
month = {aug},
number = {S1},
pages = {171--188},
title = {{Dangerous ice phenomena on the lowland rivers of European Russia}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-016-2580-x},
volume = {88},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Agier2013a,
abstract = {Bacterial meningitis is an ongoing threat for the population of the African Meningitis Belt, a region characterized by the highest incidence rates worldwide. The determinants of the disease dynamics are still poorly understood; nevertheless, it is often advocated that climate and mineral dust have a large impact. Over the last decade, several studies have investigated this relationship at a large scale. In this analysis, we scaled down to the district-level weekly scale (which is used for in-year response to emerging epidemics), and used wavelet and phase analysis methods to define and compare the time-varying periodicities of meningitis, climate and dust in Niger. We mostly focused on detecting time-lags between the signals that were consistent across districts. Results highlighted the special case of dust in comparison to wind, humidity or temperature: a strong similarity between districts is noticed in the evolution of the time-lags between the seasonal component of dust and meningitis. This result, together with the assumption of dust damaging the pharyngeal mucosa and easing bacterial invasion, reinforces our confidence in dust forcing on meningitis seasonality. Dust data should now be integrated in epidemiological and forecasting models to make them more realistic and usable in a public health perspective.},
author = {Agier, Lydiane and Deroubaix, Adrien and Martiny, Nad{\`{e}}ge and Yaka, Pascal and Djibo, A and Broutin, H{\'{e}}l{\`{e}}ne},
doi = {10.1098/rsif.2012.0814},
issn = {1742-5689},
journal = {Journal of The Royal Society Interface},
month = {feb},
number = {79},
pages = {20120814},
publisher = {The Royal Society},
title = {{Seasonality of meningitis in Africa and climate forcing: aerosols stand out}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2012.0814},
volume = {10},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Aguilar-Lome2019a,
author = {Aguilar-Lome, Jaime and Espinoza-Villar, Ra{\'{u}}l and Espinoza, Jhan-Carlo and Rojas-Acu{\~{n}}a, Joel and Willems, Bram Leo and Leyva-Molina, Walter-Mart{\'{i}}n},
doi = {10.1016/j.jag.2018.12.013},
issn = {03032434},
journal = {International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation},
month = {may},
pages = {119--128},
title = {{Elevation-dependent warming of land surface temperatures in the Andes assessed using MODIS LST time series (2000–2017)}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0303243418303714},
volume = {77},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ahmadalipour2018,
abstract = {Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951–2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006–2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8–20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3–7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region.},
author = {Ahmadalipour, Ali and Moradkhani, Hamid},
doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014},
issn = {01604120},
journal = {Environment International},
keywords = {CORDEX,Climate change,Middle East and North Africa (MENA),Mortality,RCM,Wet-bulb temperature},
month = {aug},
pages = {215--225},
pmid = {29763817},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0160412018302812},
volume = {117},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ahmadalipour2017,
abstract = {The changing climate and the associated future increases in temperature are expected to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cycle. This paper investigates the projected changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts and their future attributes over the Willamette River Basin (WRB) in the Pacific Northwest U.S. The analysis is performed using two subsets of downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) each consisting of 10 models from two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 30 years of historical period (1970–1999) and 90 years of future projections (2010–2099). Hydrologic modeling is conducted using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as a robust distributed hydrologic model with lower computational cost compared to other models. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are studied using three drought indices (i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Streamflow Index). Results reveal that the intensity and duration of hydrological droughts are expected to increase over the WRB, albeit the annual precipitation is expected to increase. On the other hand, the intensity of meteorological droughts do not indicate an aggravation for most cases. We explore the changes of hydrometeolorogical variables over the basin in order to understand the causes for such differences and to discover the controlling factors of drought. Furthermore, the uncertainty of projections are quantified for model, scenario, and downscaling uncertainty.},
author = {Ahmadalipour, Ali and Moradkhani, Hamid and Demirel, Mehmet C.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.08.047},
file = {::},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Drought,PRMS,SPEI-PM,SPI,SSI,Willamette},
month = {oct},
pages = {785--797},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{A comparative assessment of projected meteorological and hydrological droughts: Elucidating the role of temperature}},
volume = {553},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ahmed2018,
abstract = {Assessment of the influence of climate variables on drought characteristics is important for adaption to changing pattern of droughts due to climate change. The objective of this study is to assess the changing characteristics of droughts due to climate variability and change during two major cropping seasons (Rabi and Kharif) for the period 1901–2010 over the diverse climate of Pakistan. The gauge-based gridded precipitation and temperature data with a spatial resolution of 0.5° is used for the reconstruction of droughts using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The temporal variations in droughts and their relationships with precipitation and temperature are assessed using a 50-year moving window with a 10-year time step. The annual maximum series (AMS) approach is used to estimate the return periods of seasonal droughts and the modified Mann-Kendal trend test is applied to assess the significance of trends in climate variables and drought index. The results showed that drought severity is increasing in the predominantly arid and semi-arid regions for both cropping seasons, while it is decreasing in western disturbance (WD) influenced high winter precipitation region during Rabi season. Temperature is found as the dominating factor for defining droughts in arid and semi-arid regions while the precipitation in WD influenced region. An increase in temperature in the range of 0.001 to 0.025 °C per year and almost no change in precipitation have caused decreases in Rabi SPEI in the range of −0.011 to −0.025 per year in the arid region. On the other hand, increases in precipitation in the range of 1.01–2.0 mm/year have caused increases in Kharif SPEI in WD influenced region in the range of 0.016–0.02 per year. However, rises in temperature in most part of the country has caused an increase in drought frequency in both seasons in the areas where droughts are less frequent. The results indicate that rising temperature due to global warming would increase drought severity and frequency in most part of the predominantly arid country.},
author = {Ahmed, Kamal and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Nawaz, Nadeem},
doi = {10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2018.08.020},
issn = {0169-8095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
pages = {364--374},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Impacts of climate variability and change on seasonal drought characteristics of Pakistan}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016980951830646X},
volume = {214},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ahmed2019,
abstract = {To meet the demand for food from a growing global population, aquaculture production is under great pressure to increase as capture fisheries have stagnated. However, aquaculture has raised a range of environmental concerns, and further increases in aquaculture production will face widespread environmental challenges. The effects of climate change will pose a further threat to global aquaculture production. Aquaculture is often at risk from a combination of climatic variables, including cyclone, drought, flood, global warming, ocean acidification, rainfall variation, salinity, and sea level rise. For aquaculture growth to be sustainable its environmental impacts must reduce significantly. Adaptation to climate change is also needed to produce more fish without environmental impacts. Some adaptation strategies including integrated aquaculture, recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS), and the expansion of seafood farming could increase aquaculture productivity, environmental sustainability, and climate change adaptability.},
author = {Ahmed, Nesar and Thompson, Shirley and Glaser, Marion},
doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-1117-3},
issn = {14321009},
journal = {Environmental Management},
keywords = {Adaptation,Aquaculture,Climate change,Environment,Productivity},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {159--172},
publisher = {Springer New York LLC},
title = {{Global Aquaculture Productivity, Environmental Sustainability, and Climate Change Adaptability}},
volume = {63},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ahmed2020a,
author = {Ahmed, Naveed and Wang, Gen-xu and Oluwafemi, Adeyeri and Munir, Sarfraz and Hu, Zhao-yong and Shakoor, Aamir and Imran, Muhammad Ali},
doi = {10.1007/s11629-019-5438-3},
issn = {1672-6316},
journal = {Journal of Mountain Science},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {556--571},
title = {{Temperature trends and elevation dependent warming during 1965–2014 in headwaters of Yangtze River, Qinghai Tibetan Plateau}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11629-019-5438-3},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@article{ISI:000476504500001,
abstract = {The changing characteristics of aridity over a larger spatiotemporal scale have gained interest in recent years due to climate change. The long-term (1901-2016) changes in spatiotemporal patterns of annual and seasonal aridity during two major crop growing seasons of Pakistan, Kharif and Rabi, are evaluated in this study using gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data. The UNESCO aridity index was used to estimate aridity at each grid point for all the years between 1901 and 2016. The temporal changes in aridity and its associations with precipitation and PET are evaluated by implementing a moving window of 50 years of data with an 11-year interval. The modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test is applied to estimate unidirectional change by eliminating the effect of natural variability of climate, and Pettitt's test is used to detect year of change in aridity. The results revealed that the climate over 60{\%} of Pakistan (mainly in southern parts) is arid. The spatial patterns of aridity trends show a strong influence of the changes in precipitation on the aridity trend. The increasing trend in aridity (drier) is noticed in the southwest, where precipitation is low during Kharif, while there is a decreasing trend (wetter) in the Rabi season in the region which receives high precipitation due to western disturbances. The annual and Kharif aridity is found to decrease (wetter) at a rate of 0.0001 to 0.0002 per year in the northeast, while Kharif and Rabi aridity are found to increase (drier) at some locations in the south at a rate of -0.0019 to -0.0001 per year. The spatial patterns of aridity changes show a shift from arid to the semi-arid (wetter) climate in annual and Kharif over a large area while showing a shift from arid to hyper-arid (drier) region during Rabi in a small area. Most of the significant changes in precipitation and aridity are observed in the years between 1971 and 1980. Overall, aridity is found to increase (drier) in 0.52 {\%}, 4.44{\%} and 0.52{\%} of the area and decrease (wetter) in 11.75 {\%}, 7.57{\%} and 9.66{\%} of the area for annual, Rabi and Kharif seasons respectively during 1967-2016 relative to 1901-1950.},
address = {BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY},
author = {Ahmed, Kamal and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Wang, Xiaojun and Nawaz, Nadeem and Khan, Najeebullah},
doi = {10.5194/hess-23-3081-2019},
file = {::},
issn = {1027-5606},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {7},
pages = {3081--3096},
publisher = {COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH},
title = {{Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901–2016}},
type = {Article},
volume = {23},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Aich2017,
abstract = {Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan's vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 °C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006–2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 °C; 2006–2099: 2.7/6.4 °C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan's already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.},
author = {Aich, Valentin and Akhundzadah, Noor and Knuerr, Alec and Khoshbeen, Ahmad and Hattermann, Fred and Paeth, Heiko and Scanlon, Andrew and Paton, Eva},
doi = {10.3390/cli5020038},
issn = {2225-1154},
journal = {Climate},
keywords = {Afghanistan,Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experimen,Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI),South Asia,Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Inde,climate change,growing season length (GSL),trend analysis},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {38},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Climate Change in Afghanistan Deduced from Reanalysis and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)–South Asia Simulations}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/5/2/38},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Aich2014,
abstract = {Abstract. This study aims to compare impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large representative African river basins: the Niger, the Upper Blue Nile, the Oubangui and the Limpopo. We set up the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for all four basins individually. The validation of the models for four basins shows results from adequate to very good, depending on the quality and availability of input and calibration data. For the climate impact assessment, we drive the model with outputs of five bias corrected Earth system models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. This climate input is put into the context of climate trends of the whole African continent and compared to a CMIP5 ensemble of 19 models in order to test their representativeness. Subsequently, we compare the trends in mean discharges, seasonality and hydrological extremes in the 21st century. The uncertainty of results for all basins is high. Still, climate change impact is clearly visible for mean discharges but also for extremes in high and low flows. The uncertainty of the projections is the lowest in the Upper Blue Nile, where an increase in streamflow is most likely. In the Niger and the Limpopo basins, the magnitude of trends in both directions is high and has a wide range of uncertainty. In the Oubangui, impacts are the least significant. Our results confirm partly the findings of previous continental impact analyses for Africa. However, contradictory to these studies we find a tendency for increased streamflows in three of the four basins (not for the Oubangui). Guided by these results, we argue for attention to the possible risks of increasing high flows in the face of the dominant water scarcity in Africa. In conclusion, the study shows that impact intercomparisons have added value to the adaptation discussion and may be used for setting up adaptation plans in the context of a holistic approach.},
author = {Aich, Valentin and Liersch, Stefan and Vetter, T and Huang, S and Tecklenburg, Julia and Hoffmann, P and Koch, H and Fournet, S and Krysanova, Valentina and M{\"{u}}ller, E N and Hattermann, F. F.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-18-1305-2014},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1305--1321},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/18/1305/2014/},
volume = {18},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Aich2016,
abstract = {This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB.},
author = {Aich, Valentin and Liersch, Stefan and Vetter, Tobias and Fournet, Samuel and Andersson, Jafet C.M. M and Calmanti, Sandro and van Weert, Frank H.A. A and Hattermann, Fred F. and Paton, Eva N.},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.04.021},
file = {::},
issn = {18791026},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
keywords = {Climate change,Cordex,Ecohydrological modeling,Floods,Land use change,Niger},
month = {aug},
pages = {666--677},
pmid = {27110979},
title = {{Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27110979 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969716307021},
volume = {562},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Aitsi-Selmi2015,
abstract = {The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR) is the first global policy framework of the United Nations' post-2015 agenda. It represents a step in the direction of global policy coherence with explicit reference to health, development, and climate change. To develop SFDRR, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) organized and facilitated several global, regional, national, and intergovernmental negotiations and technical meetings in the period preceding the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR) 2015 where SFDRR was adopted. UNISDR also worked with representatives of governments, UN agencies, and scientists to develop targets and indicators for SFDRR and proposed them to member states for negotiation and adoption as measures of progress and achievement in protecting lives and livelihoods. The multiple efforts of the health community in the policy development process, including campaigning for safe schools and hospitals, helped to put people's mental and physical health, resilience, and well-being higher up the disaster risk reduction (DRR) agenda compared with the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015. This article reviews the historical and contemporary policy development process that led to the SFDRR with particular reference to the development of the health theme.},
author = {Aitsi-Selmi, Amina and Egawa, Shinichi and Sasaki, Hiroyuki and Wannous, Chadia and Murray, Virginia},
doi = {10.1007/s13753-015-0050-9},
isbn = {1375301500},
issn = {2095-0055},
journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Science},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {164--176},
title = {{The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: Renewing the Global Commitment to People's Resilience, Health, and Well-being}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13753-015-0050-9},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Akhiljith2019,
address = {Coconut Creek, Florida, USA},
author = {Akhiljith, Paruthiyazhath Joshy and Liya, Vazhamattom Benjamin and Rojith, Girindran and Zacharia, Parayapanal Ulahannan and Grinson, George and Ajith, Sudhakaran and Lakshmi, Puthenthara Madhusoodanan and Sajna, Valiyakath Hussain and Sathianandan, Thayyil Valappil},
doi = {10.2112/SI86-030.1},
editor = {Jithendran, K.P. and Saraswathy, R. and Balasubramanian, C.P. and {Kumaraguru Vasagam}, K.P. and Jayasankar, V. and Raghavan, R. and Alavandi, S.V. and Vijayan, K.K.},
issn = {0749-0208},
journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},
month = {nov},
number = {sp1},
pages = {198},
publisher = {Coastal Education and Research Foundation},
title = {{Climatic Projections of Indian Ocean During 2030, 2050, 2080 with Implications on Fisheries Sector}},
url = {https://bioone.org/journals/journal-of-coastal-research/volume-86/issue-sp1/SI86-030.1/Climatic-Projections-of-Indian-Ocean-During-2030-2050-2080-with/10.2112/SI86-030.1.full},
volume = {86},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Akhter2018,
abstract = {Present study has assessed different sources of uncertainties in multi-model precipitation projection using Global Climate Models (GCMs) from coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) experiment over seven homogeneous rainfall zones of India namely North Mountainous India (NMI), Northwest India (NWI), North Central India (NCI), Northeast India (NEI), West Peninsular India (WPI), East Peninsular India (EPI), and South Peninsular India (SPI). A relatively new method has been employed to separate out internal variability and climate change signal from precipitation time series before quantifying the uncertainties. In our method, signal has been defined as dynamic trend instead of considering a fixed trend line. Three different types of weighting namely equal weighting, independence based weighting and performance based weighting have been employed to assess the uncertainties of GCM projection over different zones. It has been found that ensemble with performance based weighting has produced smaller inter-model uncertainty but the patterns of temporal evolution of uncertainties have been quite irregular compared to other two ensembles. On the other hand, it has been noticed that bias correction using quantile mapping can effectively reduce the range of uncertainty in a systematic way. It has been observed that inter-model uncertainties over NEI has been relatively lower compared to other zones indicating more robust projection over this zone. A dynamic threshold on signal-to-internal variability ratio (S/I) has been used for estimating time of emergence (TOE) at 95{\%} confidence level over each zone. TOE would be earlier in case of NEI and late in NMI. However no zone may experience TOE in first half of the present century.},
author = {Akhter, Javed and Das, Lalu and Meher, Jitendra Kumar and Deb, Argha},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3847-y},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {9},
pages = {3813--3831},
title = {{Uncertainties and time of emergence of multi-model precipitation projection over homogeneous rainfall zones of India}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3847-y},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Akperov2018,
abstract = {The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency-Japanese 55-year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981–2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA-Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000–2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large-scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA-Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables.},
author = {Akperov, Mirseid and Rinke, Annette and Mokhov, Igor I. and Matthes, Heidrun and Semenov, Vladimir A. and Adakudlu, Muralidhar and Cassano, John and Christensen, Jens H. and Dembitskaya, Mariya A. and Dethloff, Klaus and Fettweis, Xavier and Glisan, Justin and Gutjahr, Oliver and Heinemann, G{\"{u}}nther and Koenigk, Torben and Koldunov, Nikolay V. and Laprise, Ren{\'{e}} and Mottram, Ruth and Niki{\'{e}}ma, Oumarou and Scinocca, John F. and Sein, Dmitry and Sobolowski, Stefan and Winger, Katja and Zhang, Wenxin},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027703},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CORDEX,RCM,arctic,cyclones,reanalyses,spectral nudging},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2537--2554},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)}},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Akperov2019,
abstract = {Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics.},
author = {Akperov, Mirseid and Rinke, Annette and Mokhov, Igor I. and Semenov, Vladimir A. and Parfenova, Mariya R. and Matthes, Heidrun and Adakudlu, Muralidhar and Boberg, Fredrik and Christensen, Jens H. and Dembitskaya, Mariya A. and Dethloff, Klaus and Fettweis, Xavier and Gutjahr, Oliver and Heinemann, G{\"{u}}nther and Koenigk, Torben and Koldunov, Nikolay V. and Laprise, Ren{\'{e}} and Mottram, Ruth and Niki{\'{e}}ma, Oumarou and Sein, Dmitry and Sobolowski, Stefan and Winger, Katja and Zhang, Wenxin},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103005},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {Arctic,CMIP5 models,CORDEX,Climate change,Cyclone activity,Regional climate models},
month = {nov},
pages = {103005},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818119301742},
volume = {182},
year = {2019}
}
@article{AlAmeri2019,
author = {{Al Ameri}, Ismael D. S. and Briant, Rebecca M. and Engels, Stefan},
doi = {10.1002/wea.3445},
issn = {0043-1656},
journal = {Weather},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {416--426},
title = {{Drought severity and increased dust storm frequency in the Middle East: a case study from the Tigris–Euphrates alluvial plain, central Iraq}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wea.3445},
volume = {74},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Albert2016,
abstract = {Low-lying reef islands in the Solomon Islands provide a valuable window into the future impacts of global sea-level rise. Sea-level rise has been predicted to cause widespread erosion and inundation of low-lying atolls in the central Pacific. However, the limited research on reef islands in the western Pacific indicates the majority of shoreline changes and inundation to date result from extreme events, seawalls and inappropriate development rather than sea-level rise alone. Here, we present the first analysis of coastal dynamics from a sea-level rise hotspot in the Solomon Islands. Using time series aerial and satellite imagery from 1947 to 2014 of 33 islands, along with historical insight from local knowledge, we have identified five vegetated reef islands that have vanished over this time period and a further six islands experiencing severe shoreline recession. Shoreline recession at two sites has destroyed villages that have existed since at least 1935, leading to community relocations. Rates of shoreline recession are substantially higher in areas exposed to high wave energy, indicating a synergistic interaction between sea-level rise and waves. Understanding these local factors that increase the susceptibility of islands to coastal erosion is critical to guide adaptation responses for these remote Pacific communities.},
author = {Albert, Simon and Leon, Javier X. and Grinham, Alistair R. and Church, John A. and Gibbes, Badin R. and Woodroffe, Colin D.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054011},
isbn = {1748-9326},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Pacific Islands,coastal erosion,sea-level rise},
number = {5},
pages = {54011},
pmid = {24486005},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands}},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Albright2016a,
author = {Albright, Rebecca and Caldeira, Lilian and Hosfelt, Jessica and Kwiatkowski, Lester and Maclaren, Jana K and Mason, Benjamin M and Nebuchina, Yana and Ninokawa, Aaron and Pongratz, Julia and Ricke, Katharine L and Others},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17155},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7594},
pages = {362--365},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Reversal of ocean acidification enhances net coral reef calcification}},
volume = {531},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Alexander2017,
abstract = {This study expands previous work on climate extremes in Australia by investigating the simulation of a large number of extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model dataset and comparing them to multiple observational datasets over a century of observed data using consistent methods. We calculate 24 indices representing extremes of temperature and precipitation from 1911 to 2010 over Australia and show that there have been significant observed trends in temperature extremes associated with warming while there have been few significant observed trends in precipitation extremes. We compare the observed indices calculated from two mostly independent datasets with 22 CMIP5 models to determine how well global climate models are able to simulate observed climatologies, variability and trends. We find that generally temperature extremes are reasonably well simulated (climatology, variability and trend patterns) although the models tend to overestimate minimum temperature extremes and underestimate maximum temperature extremes. Some models stand out as being outliers and we exclude one model (INMCM4) entirely from the multi-model analysis as it simulates unrealistic minimum temperature extremes over the historical period. There is more spread between models for precipitation than temperature extremes but in most cases the observations sit within the model spread. Exceptions are consecutive wet days (CWD) where nearly all models overestimate the actual number of annual wet days and simple daily intensity (SDII) and one day precipitation maxima (Rx1day) where the models tend to underestimate precipitation intensity. However, some of these differences likely lie in observational uncertainty. Most models including the multi-model mean indicate that precipitation intensity has increased over the last century but the two observational datasets analysed disagree on the sign of change of precipitation intensity, one of them indicating a significant decrease. We use the CMIP5 simulations for two future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to project changes in temperature and precipitation extremes across Australia. By the end of the century the number of cold temperature extremes substantially reduces and the number of warm temperature extremes substantially increases; changes scaling relative to the strength of emissions scenario. Changes in temperature extremes are often greatest in the tropics. While the results for precipitation extremes are less marked, simulations for the end of the century compared to present day indicate more periods of dryness while the most intense precipitation extremes increase substantially, with a separation becoming clear between emissions scenarios.},
author = {Alexander, Lisa V. and Arblaster, Julie M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2017.02.001},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Future projections,Model evaluation,Scaling issues,Trends},
month = {mar},
pages = {34--56},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Historical and projected trends in temperature and precipitation extremes in Australia in observations and CMIP5}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094716300780 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094716300780},
volume = {15},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Alfieri2015,
abstract = {At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios. This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation. Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220{\%} due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20–40 B€ in 2050 and 30–100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth.},
author = {Alfieri, Lorenzo and Feyen, Luc and Dottori, Francesco and Bianchi, Alessandra},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.004},
isbn = {09593780},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
keywords = {EURO-CORDEX climate projections,Flood risk,Potential flood damage,RCP 8.5,Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)},
month = {nov},
pages = {199--212},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015300406},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Alfieri2017a,
abstract = {Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards.While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5∘C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on amodeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, andmakes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-kmgrid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency andmagnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5∘C, 2∘C, and 4∘C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4∘C global warming, countries representing more than 70{\%} of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500{\%}. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant inmost countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels},
author = {Alfieri, Lorenzo and Bisselink, Berny and Dottori, Francesco and Naumann, Gustavo and de Roo, Ad and Salamon, Peter and Wyser, Klaus and Feyen, Luc},
doi = {10.1002/2016EF000485},
isbn = {8605118563},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {climate change,flood frequency,flood risk,model agreement,rcp 8.5,specific warming levels},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {171--182},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016EF000485},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Aljaryian2016,
author = {Aljaryian, Rasha and Kumar, Lalit},
doi = {10.1016/j.cropro.2016.06.008},
issn = {02612194},
journal = {Crop Protection},
month = {oct},
pages = {137--148},
title = {{Changing global risk of invading greenbug Schizaphis graminum under climate change}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0261219416301399},
volume = {88},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Allen2015,
author = {Allen, Craig D. and Breshears, David D. and McDowell, Nate G.},
doi = {10.1890/ES15-00203.1},
issn = {2150-8925},
journal = {Ecosphere},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {1--55},
title = {{On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/ES15-00203.1},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{Allen2018,
abstract = {The response of severe thunderstorms to a changing climate is a rapidly growing area of research. Severe thunderstorms are one of the largest contributors to global losses in excess of USD {\$}10 billion per year in terms of property and agriculture, as well as dozens of fatalities. Phenomena associated with severe thunderstorms such as large hail (greater than 2 cm), damaging winds (greater than 90 kmh−1), and tornadoes pose a global threat, and have been documented on every continent except Antarctica. Limitations of observational records for assessing past trends have driven a variety of approaches to not only characterize the past occurrence but provide a baseline against which future projections can be interpreted. These proxy methods have included using environments or conditions favorable to the development of thunderstorms and directly simulating storm updrafts using dynamic downscaling. Both methodologies have demonstrated pronounced changes to the frequency of days producing severe thunderstorms. Major impacts of a strongly warmed climate include a general increase in the length of the season in both the fall and spring associated with increased thermal instability and increased frequency of severe days by the late 21st century. While earlier studies noted changes to vertical wind shear decreasing frequency, recent studies have illustrated that this change appears not to coincide with days which are unstable. Questions remain as to whether the likelihood of storm initiation decreases, whether all storms which now produce severe weather will maintain their physical structure in a warmer world, and how these changes to storm frequency and or intensity may manifest for each of the threats posed by tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds. Expansion of the existing understanding globally is identified as an area of needed future research, together with meaningful consideration of both the influence of climate variability and indirect implications of anthropogenic modification of the physical environment.},
address = {Oxford, UK},
author = {Allen, John T.},
booktitle = {Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science},
doi = {10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.62},
month = {jul},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {{Climate Change and Severe Thunderstorms}},
url = {http://climatescience.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-62},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Allen2015a,
author = {Allen, John T. and Tippett, Michael K. and Sobel, Adam H.},
doi = {10.1002/2014MS000397},
issn = {19422466},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {226--243},
title = {{An empirical model relating U.S. monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014MS000397},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Allen2013,
abstract = {A gradual reduction in the stability of steep bedrock slopes is recognized as one potential impact of warming in high mountain regions. Recently, consideration has turned to the potential direct role of extremely warm temperatures in triggering rockfalls. We provide here a first systematic assessment of the timing of 53 recent rockfalls relative to defined seasonal extremes of daily maximum air temperature. Rockfall observations from the Swiss Alps, Mont Blanc Massif, and Southern Alps of New Zealand, are combined with climate analyses based on the nearest available long-term records. At four high elevation climate stations in Switzerland, there has been significant warming across all quantiles of daily maximum temperature during the spring and summer months, with corresponding increases in both the frequency and magnitude of extremely warm days, and generally less warming (even cooling) during winter and autumn. In the same region, an unusually high occurrence of extremely warm days occurring in the week leading up to rockfalls has been observed over recent decades, with 14 out of 24 rockfalls preceded by one or more extremely warm days. At the neighboring Mont Blanc Massif, based on only two years of observations, few rockfalls can be linked to extremely warm temperatures, although an early and extremely warm onset of seasonal thawing in spring 2007 may have contributed to the large number of rockfalls observed that same summer. In the Southern Alps of New Zealand, the available evidence provides no basis to suggest extremely warm temperatures have triggered unusual rockfall activity. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier B.V..},
author = {Allen, Simon and Huggel, Christian},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.04.007},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {Climate impact,High mountain,Rockfall,Slope instability,Temperature extreme},
pages = {59--69},
title = {{Extremely warm temperatures as a potential cause of recent high mountain rockfall}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113001112},
volume = {107},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Almazroui2020,
abstract = {The latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset was analyzed to examine the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over six South Asian countries during the twenty-first century. The CMIP6 model simulations reveal biases in annual mean temperature and precipitation over South Asia in the present climate. In the historical period, the median of the CMIP6 model ensemble systematically underestimates the annual mean temperature for all the South Asian countries, while a mixed behavior is shown in the case of precipitation. In the future climate, the CMIP6 models display higher sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions over South Asia compared with the CMIP5 models. The multimodel ensemble from 27 CMIP6 models projects a continuous increase in the annual mean temperature over South Asia during the twenty-first century under three future scenarios. The projected temperature shows a large increase (over 6 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario) over the northwestern parts of South Asia, comprising the complex Karakorum and Himalayan mountain ranges. Any large increase in the mean temperature over this region will most likely result in a faster rate of glacier melting. By the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean temperature (uncertainty range) over South Asia is projected to increase by 1.2 (0.7–2.1) °C, 2.1 (1.5–3.3) °C, and 4.3 (3.2–6.6) °C under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to the present (1995–2014) climate. The warming over South Asia is also continuous on the seasonal time scale. The CMIP6 models projected higher warming in the winter season than in the summer over South Asia, which if verified will have repercussions for snow/ice accumulations as well as winter cropping patterns. The annual mean precipitation is also projected to increase over South Asia during the twenty-first century under all scenarios. The rate of change in the projected annual mean precipitation varies considerably between the South Asian countries. By the end of the twenty-first century, the country-averaged annual mean precipitation (uncertainty range) is projected to increase by 17.1 (2.2–49.1){\%} in Bangladesh, 18.9 (−4.9 to 72){\%} in Bhutan, 27.3 (5.3–160.5){\%} in India, 19.5 (−5.9 to 95.6){\%} in Nepal, 26.4 (6.4–159.7){\%} in Pakistan, and 25.1 (−8.5 to 61.0){\%} in Sri Lanka under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The seasonal precipitation projections also shows large variability. The projected winter precipitation reveals a robust increase over the western Himalayas, with a corresponding decrease over the eastern Himalayas. On the other hand, the summer precipitation shows a robust increase over most of the South Asia region, with the largest increase over the arid region of southern Pakistan and adjacent areas of India, under the high-emission scenario. The results presented in this study give detailed insights into CMIP6 model performance over the South Asia region, which could be extended further to develop adaptation strategies, and may act as a guideline document for climate change related policymaking in the region.},
author = {Almazroui, Mansour and Saeed, Sajjad and Saeed, Fahad and Islam, M Nazrul and Ismail, Muhammad},
doi = {10.1007/s41748-020-00157-7},
issn = {2509-9434},
journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
number = {2},
pages = {297--320},
title = {{Projections of Precipitation and Temperature over the South Asian Countries in CMIP6}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00157-7},
volume = {4},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Almazroui2021,
abstract = {The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45{\%}, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30{\%} over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40{\%} over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.},
author = {Almazroui, Mansour and Islam, M. Nazrul and Saeed, Fahad and Saeed, Sajjad and Ismail, Muhammad and Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar and Diallo, Ismaila and O'Brien, Enda and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Mart{\'{i}}nez-Castro, Daniel and Cavazos, Tereza and Cerezo-Mota, Ruth and Tippett, Michael K. and Gutowski, William J. and Alfaro, Eric J. and Hidalgo, Hugo G. and Vichot-Llano, Alejandro and Campbell, Jayaka D. and Kamil, Shahzad and Rashid, Irfan Ur and Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Stephenson, Tannecia and Taylor, Michael and Barlow, Mathew},
doi = {10.1007/s41748-021-00199-5},
issn = {25099434},
journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
keywords = {CMIP6,Caribbean,Central America,Climate change,Precipitation,Temperature,United States},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--24},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH},
title = {{Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00199-5},
volume = {5},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Alobaidi2017,
abstract = {ABSTRACT A dust storm climatic regionalization of the Arabian Peninsula (AP) that aims to categorize the region into several cohesive sub-regions is conducted. This approach was carried out by grouping together similar wet season climatological features of dust storm activity (DSA). A common period of 30?years (1983?2013) for 38 meteorological weather stations across the AP was utilized. The mathematical, statistical and subjective methods that are employed in the process of regionalization resulted in dividing the region into three sub-regions. Each of the sub-regions north, northwestern and central, northeast and south, west and coastal shows distinct features of its own. Subsequently, the temporal trend of the representative station (key station) for each sub-region is examined. It is found that only the northeastern part of the region has a significant positive trend over the last 30?years. However, this positive increase in DSA is not associated with an increase in wind speed. This study assists future research in exploring the relationship between large-scale forcing and the AP sub-regional DSA. As well, this could enhance regional DSA forecast and future projections.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/joc.4782},
author = {Alobaidi, Meshari and Almazroui, Mansour and Mashat, Abdulwahab and Jones, Philip Douglas},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4782},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Arabian Peninsula,dust storms,regionalization,trends analysis,wet season},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1356--1373},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Arabian Peninsula wet season dust storm distribution: regionalization and trends analysis (1983–2013)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4782},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Alongi2015,
abstract = {Mangrove forests have survived a number of cata- strophic climate events since first appearing along the shores of the Tethys Sea during the late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary. The existence of mangrove peat deposits worldwide attests to past episodes of local and regional extinction, primarily in response to abrupt, rapid rises in sea level. Occupying a harsh margin between land and sea, most mangrove plants and as- sociated organisms are predisposed to be either resilient or resistant to most environmental change. Based on the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts, mangrove forests along arid coasts, in subsiding river deltas, and on many islands are predicted to decline in area, structural complexity, and/or in functionality, but man- groves will continue to expand polewards. It is highly likely that they will survive into the foreseeable future as sea level, global temperatures, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise. Keywords},
author = {Alongi, Daniel M.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-015-0002-x},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Climate change,Ecological impacts,Greenhouse,Mangroves,Predictions,Sea level rise,Tropics},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {30--39},
publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
title = {{The Impact of Climate Change on Mangrove Forests}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-015-0002-x},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Altieri2015,
author = {Altieri, Andrew H. and Gedan, Keryn B.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.12754},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {dissolved oxygen,ecosystem function,estuaries,eutrophication,hypoxia,ocean acidification,sea‐level rise,temperature},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1395--1406},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Climate change and dead zones}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.12754},
volume = {21},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Altman2018,
author = {Altman, Jan and Ukhvatkina, Olga N and Omelko, Alexander M and Macek, Martin and Plener, Tomas and Pejcha, Vit and Cerny, Tomas and Petrik, Petr and Srutek, Miroslav and Song, Jongsuk},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1808979115},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {45},
pages = {11543--11548},
title = {{Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century}},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Alvioli2018,
abstract = {The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate projections obtained by downscaling and the expected modifications in landslide occurrence in Central Italy. We used rainfall measurements taken by 56 rain gauges in the 9-year period 2003–2011, and the RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic rainfall fields from regional climate model projections for the 14-year calibration period 2002–2015, and for the 40-year projection period 2010–2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted a number of rainfall events, i.e. rainfall periods separated by dry periods of no or negligible amount of rain, from the measured and the synthetic rainfall series. Then, we used the selected rainfall events to forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. We analyzed the results in terms of variations (or lack of variations) in the rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, in the probability distribution of landslide size (area), and in landslide hazard. Results showed that the downscaled rainfall fields obtained by RainFARM can be used to single out rainfall events, and to force the slope stability model. Results further showed that while the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence are expected to change in future scenarios, the probability distribution of landslide areas are not. We infer that landslide hazard in the study area is expected to change in response to the projected variations in the rainfall conditions. We expect our results to contribute to regional investigations of the expected impact of projected climate variations on slope stability conditions and on landslide hazards.},
author = {Alvioli, Massimiliano and Melillo, Massimo and Guzzetti, Fausto and Rossi, Mauro and Palazzi, Elisa and von Hardenberg, Jost and Brunetti, Maria Teresa and Peruccacci, Silvia},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.315},
issn = {00489697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
month = {jul},
pages = {1528--1543},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718307150 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969718307150},
volume = {630},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{AMAP2017,
address = {Oslo, Norway},
author = {AMAP},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/robin.matthews/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/AMAP - 2017 - Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2017.pdf:pdf},
isbn = {9788279711018},
pages = {269},
publisher = {Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)},
title = {{Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2017}},
url = {https://www.amap.no/documents/doc/snow-water-ice-and-permafrost-in-the-arctic-swipa-2017/1610},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ambika2020,
abstract = {Compound extremes of soil moisture (SM) drought and high vapor pressure deficit (atmospheric aridity) are disastrous for natural and social systems. Despite a significant expansion in irrigated area in India, the role of irrigation on SM and atmospheric aridity is not examined. We used observations, reanalysis datasets, and high-resolution simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to show that irrigation significantly modulates SM and atmospheric aridity in India. The Indo-Gangetic Plain, which is one of the most intensively irrigated regions in the world, experienced significant (P-value = 0.03) cooling (∼0.8 °C) and an increase in solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence during the crop growing season (November–February). Atmospheric aridity has significantly (P-value = 0.0002) declined (−1.38 kPa) while SM (1.6 m3 m−3) and relative humidity (RH) (2.0{\%}) have increased over the Indo-Gangetic Plain during 1979–2018. We conducted high-resolution simulations using the WRF model to examine the role of irrigation on atmospheric aridity. Irrigation strongly modulates SM drought and atmospheric aridity by increasing latent heat and RH and reducing sensible heat. Our findings have implications as irrigation can influence compound extremes of SM drought and atmospheric aridity. Climate models need to incorporate the influence of irrigation for reliable projections in the intensively irrigated regions.},
author = {Ambika, Anukesh Krishnankutty and Mishra, Vimal},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abc8bc},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {12},
pages = {124060},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Substantial decline in atmospheric aridity due to irrigation in India}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc8bc},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Amos2014,
author = {Amos, Colin B and Audet, Pascal and Hammond, William C and B{\"{u}}rgmann, Roland and Johanson, Ingrid A and Blewitt, Geoffrey},
doi = {10.1038/nature13275},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {may},
number = {7501},
pages = {483--486},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.},
title = {{Uplift and seismicity driven by groundwater depletion in central California}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature13275},
volume = {509},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Andela2017,
abstract = {Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8{\%} over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.},
author = {Andela, N and Morton, D C and Giglio, L and Chen, Y and van der Werf, G R and Kasibhatla, P S and DeFries, R S and Collatz, G J and Hantson, S and Kloster, S and Bachelet, D and Forrest, M and Lasslop, G and Li, F and Mangeon, S and Melton, J R and Yue, C and Randerson, J T},
doi = {10.1126/science.aal4108},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jun},
number = {6345},
pages = {1356--1362},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{A human-driven decline in global burned area}},
url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1356 http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aal4108},
volume = {356},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Anderson2018,
author = {Anderson, G. Brooke and Oleson, Keith W. and Jones, Bryan and Peng, Roger D.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {455--470},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x},
volume = {146},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Andresen2015,
author = {Andresen, Christian G. and Lougheed, Vanessa L.},
doi = {10.1002/2014JG002778},
issn = {21698953},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {466--479},
title = {{Disappearing Arctic tundra ponds: Fine-scale analysis of surface hydrology in drained thaw lake basins over a 65 year period (1948–2013)}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JG002778},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Andrews2013,
author = {Andrews, O D and Bindoff, N L and Halloran, P R and Ilyina, T and Qu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}, C Le},
doi = {10.5194/bg-10-1799-2013},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
number = {3},
pages = {1799--1813},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Detecting an external influence on recent changes in oceanic oxygen using an optimal fingerprinting method}},
volume = {10},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Anenberg2017,
author = {Anenberg, Susan C. and Weinberger, Kate R. and Roman, Henry and Neumann, James E. and Crimmins, Allison and Fann, Neal and Martinich, Jeremy and Kinney, Patrick L.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GH000055},
issn = {24711403},
journal = {GeoHealth},
keywords = {aeroallergens,asthma,climate change},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {80--92},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GH000055},
volume = {1},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Antwi-Agyei2020,
abstract = {Access to useful climate information is critical for adaptation needs of African smallholder farmers, yet empirical studies documenting the socioeconomic, environmental and household predictors of access to and willingness to pay for climate information services from a gendered perspective have been limited to date. This paper addresses this research need by identifying the predictors of access to and willingness to pay for climate information by smallholder farmers in north-eastern Ghana, a “vulnerability hotspot” where slight changes in rainfall often result in considerable yield losses. The study uses data collected from 193 household surveys in 2 communities across 2 districts in the Upper East region of Ghana. The logit regression was performed based on a disaggregated procedure. Our findings suggest that the majority of smallholder farmers were not willing to pay for the cost of receiving climate information. Results show that only 50{\%} (n = 121) of the male farmers compared with just 31{\%} (n = 72) of female farmers were willing to pay for climate information. The results from the marginal analysis suggest that access to climate information is influenced by both household and environmental factors. The marginal effects logistic regression shows statistically significant differences in the predictors of access and willingness to pay for climate information based on gender. Findings highlight that the provision of climate information should be designed and tailored to meet the needs of smallholder farmers with different socioeconomic backgrounds to enable farmers manage climate risks and build adaptive capacity. The Ghana Meteorological Agency needs to be supported through capacity building on communication to provide targeted climate information for farmers in this climate “vulnerability hotspot”.},
author = {Antwi-Agyei, Philip and Amanor, Kofi and Hogarh, Jonathan N and Dougill, Andrew J},
doi = {10.1016/j.envdev.2020.100580},
issn = {22114645},
journal = {Environmental Development},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate information services,Food security,Smallholder farmers,Socioeconomic factors,Sustainable Development Goals},
month = {mar},
pages = {100580},
title = {{Predictors of access to and willingness to pay for climate information services in north-eastern Ghana: A gendered perspective}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211464520301020 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2211464520301020},
volume = {37},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Araghi2018,
abstract = {Aridity is a permanent feature of climate based on long-term climatic conditions over a region. Climatic indices are reliable tools to explore climate type, and climatologists have proposed various indices to classify climate and investigate the aridity or humidity in any region. In this study, we examined spatiotemporal variations of aridity in Iran during the last six decades from 1954 to 2013, using the de Martonne aridity index (IDM), which is calculated based on precipitation and temperature. Data used in this study were extracted from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre and the University of Delaware gridded data sets, respectively. Both data sets have global high-resolution (0.5°???0.5°) coverage, and temporally span more than a century of data (from 1901). According to the data obtained from these data sets, more than 80{\%} of Iran has an arid and semi-arid climate (annually), although the spatial pattern of IDM varies throughout the year. Using the Mann?Kendall test showed a negative significant trend in IDM in 20{\%} of Iran's total area in spring, and less than 7{\%} in the other seasons of the year. Overall, it can be concluded that there were no significant trends in aridity for most parts of Iran during the last six decades.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5454},
author = {Araghi, Alireza and Martinez, Christopher J and Adamowski, Jan and Olesen, J{\o}rgen E},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5454},
file = {::},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Iran,Mann–Kendall,aridity,de Martonne index,gridded data},
month = {may},
number = {6},
pages = {2701--2717},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Spatiotemporal variations of aridity in Iran using high-resolution gridded data}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5454},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Archfield2016,
abstract = {Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large-scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States.},
author = {Archfield, S. A. and Hirsch, R. M. and Viglione, A. and Bl{\"{o}}schl, G.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL070590},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate,floods,trends},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {10232--10239},
pmid = {27917010},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27917010 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC5129637},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Arheimer2015,
abstract = {There is an ongoing discussion whether floods occur more frequently today than in the past, and whether they will increase in number and magnitude in the future. To explore this issue in Sweden, we merged observed time series for the past century from 69 gauging sites throughout the country (450 000 km2) with high-resolution dynamic model projections of the upcoming century. The results show that the changes in annual maximum daily flows in Sweden oscillate between dry and wet periods but exhibit no significant trend over the past 100 years. Temperature was found to be the strongest climate driver of changes in river high flows, which are related primarily to snowmelt in Sweden. Annual daily high flows may decrease by on average {\&}minus;1{\%} per decade in the future, mainly due to lower peaks from snowmelt in the spring ({\&}minus;2{\%} per decade) as a result of higher temperatures and a shorter snow season. In contrast, autumn flows may increase by {\&}plus;3{\%} per decade due to more intense rainfall. This indicates a shift in flood-generating processes in the future, with greater influence of rain-fed floods. Changes in climate may have a more significant impact on some specific rivers than on the average for the whole country. Our results suggest that the temporal pattern in future daily high flow in some catchments will shift in time, with spring floods in the northern-central part of Sweden occurring about 1 month earlier than today. High flows in the southern part of the country may become more frequent. Moreover, the current boundary between snow-driven floods in northern-central Sweden and rain-driven floods in the south may move toward higher latitudes due to less snow accumulation in the south and at low altitudes. The findings also indicate a tendency in observations toward the modeled projections for timing of daily high flows over the last 25 years. Uncertainties related to both the observed data and the complex model chain of climate impact assessments in hydrology are discussed.},
author = {Arheimer, B. and Lindstr{\"{o}}m, G.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-19-771-2015},
issn = {16077938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {771--784},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Climate impact on floods: Changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911–2100)}},
volume = {19},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Murray2018,
abstract = {Seagrass ecosystems contain globally significant organic carbon (C) stocks. However, climate change and increasing frequency of extreme events threaten their preservation. Shark Bay, Western Australia, has the largest C stock reported for a seagrass ecosystem, containing up to 1.3{\%} of the total C stored within the top metre of seagrass sediments worldwide. On the basis of field studies and satellite imagery, we estimate that 36{\%} of Shark Bay's seagrass meadows were damaged following a marine heatwave in 2010/2011. Assuming that 10 to 50{\%} of the seagrass sediment C stock was exposed to oxic conditions after disturbance, between 2 and 9 Tg CO2 could have been released to the atmosphere during the following three years, increasing emissions from land-use change in Australia by 4–21{\%} per annum. With heatwaves predicted to increase with further climate warming, conservation of seagrass ecosystems is essential to avoid adverse feedbacks on the climate system.},
author = {Arias-Ortiz, Ariane and Serrano, Oscar and Masqu{\'{e}}, Pere and Lavery, Paul S. and Mueller, Ute and Kendrick, Gary A. and Rozaimi, M. and Esteban, A. and Fourqurean, James W. and Marb{\`{a}}, N{\'{u}}ria and Mateo, M. A. and Murray, K. and Rule, M. J. and Duarte, C. M.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0096-y},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {338--344},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{A marine heatwave drives massive losses from the world's largest seagrass carbon stocks}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0096-y},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Arnell2014,
author = {Arnell, Nigel W. and Lloyd-Hughes, Ben},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0948-4},
file = {::},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {127--140},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0948-4},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Arnell2013,
abstract = {This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Changes are compared with natural variability, with a significant change being defined as greater than the standard deviation of the hydrological indicator in the absence of climate change. Under an SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1b emissions scenario, substantial proportions of the land surface (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) would experience significant changes in hydrological behaviour by 2050; under one climate model scenario (Hadley Centre HadCM3), average annual runoff increases significantly over 47{\%} of the land surface and decreases over 36{\%}; only 17{\%} therefore sees no significant change. There is considerable variability between regions, depending largely on projected changes in precipitation. Uncertainty in projected river flow regimes is dominated by variation in the spatial patterns of climate change between climate models (hydrological model uncertainty is not included). There is, however, a strong degree of consistency in the overall magnitude and direction of change. More than two-thirds of climate models project a significant increase in average annual runoff across almost a quarter of the land surface, and a significant decrease over 14{\%}, with considerably higher degrees of consistency in some regions. Most climate models project increases in runoff in Canada and high-latitude eastern Europe and Siberia, and decreases in runoff in central Europe, around the Mediterranean, the Mashriq, central America and Brasil. There is some evidence that project change in runoff at the regional scale is not linear with change in global average temperature change. The effects of uncertainty in the rate of future emissions is relatively small. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier B.V.},
author = {Arnell, Nigel W. and Gosling, Simon N.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010},
isbn = {0022-1694},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {apr},
pages = {351--364},
title = {{The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169413001224},
volume = {486},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Arnell2016a,
author = {Arnell, N. W. and Brown, S. and Gosling, S. N. and Gottschalk, P. and Hinkel, J. and Huntingford, C. and Lloyd-Hughes, B. and Lowe, J. A. and Nicholls, R. J. and Osborn, T. J. and Osborne, T. M. and Rose, G. A. and Smith, P. and Wheeler, T. R. and Zelazowski, P.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1281-2},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {457--474},
title = {{The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1281-2},
volume = {134},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Arnell2019,
abstract = {This paper presents an evaluation of the global and regional consequences of climate change for heat extremes, water resources, river and coastal flooding, droughts, agriculture and energy use. It presents change in hazard and resource base under different rates of climate change (representative concentration pathways (RCP)), and socio-economic impacts are estimated for each combination of RCP and shared socioeconomic pathway. Uncertainty in the regional pattern of climate change is characterised by CMIP5 climate model projections. The analysis adopts a novel approach using relationships between level of warming and impact to rapidly estimate impacts under any climate forcing. The projections provided here can be used to inform assessments of the implications of climate change. At the global scale all the consequences of climate change considered here are adverse, with large increases under the highest rates of warming. Under the highest forcing the global average annual chance of a major heatwave increases from 5{\%} now to 97{\%} in 2100, the average proportion of time in drought increases from 7{\%} to 27{\%}, and the average chance of the current 50 year flood increases from 2{\%} to 7{\%}. The socio-economic impacts of these climate changes are determined by socio-economic scenario. There is variability in impact across regions, reflecting variability in projected changes in precipitation and temperature. The range in the estimated impacts can be large, due to uncertainty in future emissions and future socio-economic conditions and scientific uncertainty in how climate changes in response to future emissions. For the temperature-based indicators, the largest source of scientific uncertainty is in the estimated magnitude of equilibrium climate sensitivity, but for the indicators determined by precipitation the largest source is in the estimated spatial and seasonal pattern of changes in precipitation. By 2100, the range across socio-economic scenario is often greater than the range across the forcing levels.},
author = {Arnell, Nigel W. and Lowe, Jason A. and Bernie, Dan and Nicholls, Robert J. and Brown, Sally and Challinor, Andrew J. and Osborn, Timothy J.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab35a6},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {ScenarioMIP,agricultural impacts,climate change,drought,flood,hazard,heatwave},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {084046},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab35a6},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Arnell2016,
abstract = {This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5×0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climatemodel, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRESA1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 {\%} of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187{\%}over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 {\%}. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.},
author = {Arnell, Nigel W. and Gosling, Simon N.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5},
isbn = {0165-0009},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric Sciences,Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {387--401},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5},
volume = {134},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Arp2018,
abstract = {Strong winter warming has dominated recent patterns of climate change along the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska. The full impact of arctic winters may be best manifest by freshwater ice growth and the extent to which abundant shallow ACP lakes freeze solid with bedfast ice by the end of winter. For example, winter conditions of 2016-17 produced record low extents of bedfast ice across the ACP. In addition to high air temperatures, the causes varied from deep snow accumulation on the Barrow Peninsula to high late season rainfall and lake levels farther east on the ACP. In contrast, the previous winter of 2015-16 was also warm, but low snowpack and high winds caused relatively thick lake ice to develop and corresponding high extents of bedfast ice on the ACP. This recent comparison of extreme variation in lake ice responses between two adjacent regions and years in the context of long-term climate and ice records highlights the complexity associated with weather conditions and climate change in the Arctic. Recent observations of maximum ice thickness (MIT) compared to simulated MIT from Weather Research and Forcing (Polar-WRF) model output show greater departure toward thinner ice than predicted by models, underscoring this uncertainty and the need for sustained observations. Lake ice thickness and the extent of bedfast ice not only indicate the impact of arctic winters, but also directly affect sublake permafrost, winter water supply for industry, and overwinter habitat availability. Therefore, tracking freshwater ice responses provides a comprehensive picture of winter, as well as summer, weather conditions and climate change with implications to broader landscape, ecosystem, and resource responses in the Arctic.},
author = {Arp, Christopher D. and Jones, Benjamin M. and Engram, Melanie and Alexeev, Vladimir A. and Cai, Lei and Parsekian, Andrew and Hinkel, Kenneth and Bondurant, Allen C. and Creighton, Andrea},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aae994},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {arctic,climate change,freshwater ice,lakes,winter},
month = {nov},
number = {12},
pages = {125001},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Contrasting lake ice responses to winter climate indicate future variability and trends on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae994},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@unpublished{Arrighi2016,
address = {The Hague, Netherlands},
author = {Arrighi, Julie and Koelle, Bettina and {Coll Besa}, Monica and Spires, Meggan and Kavonic, Jess and Scott, Dianne and Kadihasanoglu, Aynur and Bharwani, Sukaina and Jack, Chris},
file = {::},
pages = {15},
publisher = {Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies},
series = {Working Paper Series No. 7},
title = {{Unpacking the ‘City Learning Lab' approach}},
url = {https://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/files/RCCC{\_}JA{\_}wps 7 City Learning Lab v2.pdf},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Asadieh2017,
author = {Asadieh, B and Krakauer, N Y},
doi = {10.5194/hess-21-5863-2017},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {11},
pages = {5863--5874},
title = {{Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/5863/2017/},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ashfaq9999,
abstract = {We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.},
author = {Ashfaq, Moetasim and Cavazos, Tereza and Reboita, Michelle Sim{\~{o}}es and Torres-Alavez, Jos{\'{e}} Abraham and Im, Eun-Soon and Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola and Alves, Lincoln and Key, Kesondra and Adeniyi, Mojisola O. and Tall, Moustapha and Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Mehmood, Shahid and Zafar, Qudsia and Das, Sushant and Diallo, Ismaila and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1463--1488},
title = {{Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2 https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2},
volume = {57},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Ashley2020,
abstract = {Understanding how snowstorms may change in the future is critical for estimating impacts on water resources and the Earth and socioeconomic systems that depend on them. Here we use snowstorms as a marker to assess the mesoscale fingerprint of climate change, providing a description of potential changes in winter weather event occurrence, character and variability in central and eastern North America under a high anthropogenic emissions pathway. Snowstorms are segmented and tracked using high-resolution, snow water equivalent output from dynamically downscaled simulations which, unlike global climate models, can resolve important mesoscale features such as banded snow. Significant decreases are found in the frequency and size of snowstorms in a pseudo-global warming simulation, including those events that produce the most extreme snowfall accumulations. Early and late boreal winter months show particularly robust proportional decreases in snowstorms and snow water equivalent accumulations.},
author = {Ashley, Walker S. and Haberlie, Alex M. and Gensini, Vittorio A.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0774-4},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric science,Climate change,Climate sciences,Cryospheric science,Projection and prediction},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {539--544},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{Reduced frequency and size of late-twenty-first-century snowstorms over North America}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0774-4},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Asseng2015,
abstract = {This study—based on systematic testing of 30 different wheat crop models against field experiments—shows that many wheat models simulate yields well, but with reduced accuracy at higher temperatures. Extrapolation of the model ensemble response indicates that global wheat production will fall by 6{\%} for each 1 °C increase in temperature.},
author = {Asseng, S. and Ewert, F. and Martre, P. and R{\"{o}}tter, R. P. and Lobell, D. B. and Cammarano, D. and Kimball, B. A. and Ottman, M. J. and Wall, G. W. and White, J. W. and Reynolds, M. P. and Alderman, P. D. and Prasad, P. V. V. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Anothai, J. and Basso, B. and Biernath, C. and Challinor, A. J. and {De Sanctis}, G. and Doltra, J. and Fereres, E. and Garcia-Vila, M. and Gayler, S. and Hoogenboom, G. and Hunt, L. A. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Jabloun, M. and Jones, C. D. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Koehler, A-K. and M{\"{u}}ller, C. and {Naresh Kumar}, S. and Nendel, C. and O'Leary, G. and Olesen, J. E. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and {Eyshi Rezaei}, E. and Ruane, A. C. and Semenov, M. A. and Shcherbak, I. and St{\"{o}}ckle, C. and Stratonovitch, P. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Thorburn, P. J. and Waha, K. and Wang, E. and Wallach, D. and Wolf, J. and Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2470},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,change impacts},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {143--147},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2470},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Astrom2013,
abstract = {OBJECTIVES Respiratory diseases are ranked second in Europe in terms of mortality, prevalence and costs. Studies have shown that extreme heat has a large impact on mortality and morbidity, with a large relative increase for respiratory diseases. Expected increases in mean temperature and the number of extreme heat events over the coming decades due to climate change raise questions about the possible health impacts. We assess the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in a future with a different climate. DESIGN A Europe-wide health impact assessment. SETTING An assessment for each of the EU27 countries. METHODS Heat-related hospital admissions under a changing climate are projected using multicity epidemiological exposure-response relationships applied to gridded population data and country-specific baseline respiratory hospital admission rates. Times-series of temperatures are simulated with a regional climate model based on four global climate models, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. RESULTS Between a reference period (1981-2010) and a future period (2021-2050), the total number of respiratory hospital admissions attributed to heat is projected to be larger in southern Europe, with three times more heat attributed respiratory hospital admissions in the future period. The smallest change was estimated in Eastern Europe with about a twofold increase. For all of Europe, the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions is projected to be 26 000 annually in the future period compared with 11 000 in the reference period. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest that the projected effects of climate change on temperature and the number of extreme heat events could substantially influence respiratory morbidity across Europe.},
author = {Astr{\"{o}}m, Christofer and Orru, Hans and Rockl{\"{o}}v, Joacim and Strandberg, Gustav and Ebi, Kristie L and Forsberg, Bertil},
doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2012-001842},
file = {::},
issn = {2044-6055},
journal = {BMJ open},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {e001842},
pmid = {23355662},
publisher = {British Medical Journal Publishing Group},
title = {{Heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in Europe in a changing climate: a health impact assessment.}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23355662 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC3563142},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Athanasiou2020,
abstract = {Sea level rise (SLR) will cause shoreline retreat of sandy coasts in the absence of sand supply mechanisms. These coasts have high touristic and ecological value and provide protection of valuable infrastructures and buildings to storm impacts. So far, large-scale assessments of shoreline retreat use specific datasets or assumptions for the geophysical representation of the coastal system, without any quantification of the effect that these choices might have on the assessment. Here we quantify SLR driven potential shoreline retreat and consequent coastal land loss in Europe during the twenty-first century using different combinations of geophysical datasets for (a) the location and spatial extent of sandy beaches and (b) their nearshore slopes. Using data-based spatially-varying nearshore slope data, a European averaged SLR driven median shoreline retreat of 97 m (54 m) is projected under RCP 8.5 (4.5) by year 2100, relative to the baseline year 2010. This retreat would translate to 2,500 km2 (1,400 km2) of coastal land loss (in the absence of ambient shoreline changes). A variance-based global sensitivity analysis indicates that the uncertainty associated with the choice of geophysical datasets can contribute up to 45{\%} (26{\%}) of the variance in coastal land loss projections for Europe by 2050 (2100). This contribution can be as high as that associated with future mitigation scenarios and SLR projections.},
author = {Athanasiou, Panagiotis and van Dongeren, Ap and Giardino, Alessio and Vousdoukas, Michalis I. and Ranasinghe, Roshanka and Kwadijk, Jaap},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-68576-0},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Environmental impact,Environmental sciences,Natural hazards},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {11895},
pmid = {32681080},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68576-0},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Auffhammer2017a,
abstract = {It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond [Rose S, et al. (2014) Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon: A Technical Assessment]. The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 18 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8{\%} by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today's technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual.},
author = {Auffhammer, Maximilian and Baylis, Patrick and Hausman, Catherine H},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1613193114},
issn = {1091-6490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {8},
pages = {1886--1891},
pmid = {28167756},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States.}},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{AugustoSanabria2018,
abstract = {Wind is one of the most dangerous natural phenomena for the built environment in South Eastern South America. The hazard posed by wind depends on the extreme wind speeds on the surface and can be quantified by calculating the Average Recurrence Interval—more commonly known as return period—of these winds. Maps of return period of extreme wind speeds are used by planning authorities to enforce appropriate standards for infrastructure construction in most countries of the world. These maps are usually built up from wind speeds recorded at a network of weather stations. In some countries, however, the quality of the records is poor or the stations have not been in operation for long enough to give appropriate data for wind hazard studies. In this paper, we discuss an alternative approach based on wind speeds calculated by climate models. The approach provides longer datasets and facilitates assessment of the impact of climate change on wind hazard, a matter of great of importance for planning and emergency authorities. Map quality is evaluated by comparing results from the climate simulations with results from reanalysis. The comparison shows that the climate simulations produce results close enough to the reanalysis and hence they can be used for wind hazard assessment. The results also show that we could expect little variation in wind hazard in South Eastern South America during most of this century.},
author = {{Augusto Sanabria}, L. and Carril, Andrea F.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2174-6},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {may},
number = {1-2},
pages = {235--247},
title = {{Maps of wind hazard over South Eastern South America considering climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2174-6},
volume = {148},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ault2015,
abstract = {AbstractClimate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from −0.8 to −1.6 days decade−1, while first bloom index trends are between −0.4 and −1.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findi...},
author = {Ault, Toby R. and Schwartz, Mark D. and Zurita-Milla, Raul and Weltzin, Jake F. and Betancourt, Julio L.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00736.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Agriculture,Climate variability,Decadal variability,Interannual variability,Multidecadal variability,Spring season},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {8363--8378},
title = {{Trends and Natural Variability of Spring Onset in the Coterminous United States as Evaluated by a New Gridded Dataset of Spring Indices}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00736.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Azorin-Molina2018,
author = {Azorin-Molina, C. and Dunn, J. H. and Mears, C. A. and Berrisford, P. and McVicar, T. R.},
doi = {oi:10.1175/2018BAMSStateoftheClimate.1.},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
pages = {S41--S44},
title = {{Surface winds [in “State of the Climate in 2017”]}},
volume = {99 (8)},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Babur2016,
author = {Babur, Muhammad and Babel, Mukand and Shrestha, Sangam and Kawasaki, Akiyuki and Tripathi, Nitin},
doi = {10.3390/w8090389},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {389},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs – The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w8090389 http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/8/9/389},
volume = {8},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bachmair2016,
author = {Bachmair, Sophie and Stahl, Kerstin and Collins, Kevin and Hannaford, Jamie and Acreman, Mike and Svoboda, Mark and Knutson, Cody and Smith, Kelly Helm and Wall, Nicole and Fuchs, Brian and Crossman, Neville D. and Overton, Ian C.},
doi = {10.1002/wat2.1154},
file = {::},
issn = {20491948},
journal = {WIREs Water},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {516--536},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Drought indicators revisited: the need for a wider consideration of environment and society}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wat2.1154},
volume = {3},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bacmeister2018,
abstract = {This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5 is explicitly considered and is compared with uncertainties arising from SST projections. We find a reduction in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5.},
author = {Bacmeister, Julio T and Reed, Kevin A and Hannay, Cecile and Lawrence, Peter and Bates, Susan and Truesdale, John E and Rosenbloom, Nan and Levy, Michael},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {547--560},
title = {{Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x},
volume = {146},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bajracharya2018,
annote = {Cited By :4
Export Date: 24 July 2018},
author = {Bajracharya, A R and Bajracharya, S R and Shrestha, A B and Maharjan, S B},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.332},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
pages = {837--848},
title = {{Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal}},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85039962320{\&}doi=10.1016{\%}2Fj.scitotenv.2017.12.332{\&}partnerID=40{\&}md5=0bcda02fea5984d8f8d15886329864c6},
volume = {625},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Baker-Austin2013,
author = {Baker-Austin, Craig and Trinanes, Joaquin A. and Taylor, Nick G. H. and Hartnell, Rachel and Siitonen, Anja and Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1628},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {73--77},
title = {{Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1628},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Bakun2015,
abstract = {Ecosystem productivity in coastal ocean upwelling systems is threatened by climate change. Increases in spring and summer upwelling intensity, and associated increases in the rate of offshore advection, are expected. While this could counter effects of habitat warming, it could also lead to more frequent hypoxic events and lower densities of suitable-sized food particles for fish larvae. With upwelling intensification, ocean acidity will rise, affecting organisms with carbonate structures. Regardless of changes in upwelling, near-surface stratification, turbulent diffusion rates, source water origins, and perhaps thermocline depths associated with large-scale climate episodes (ENSO) maybe affected. Major impacts on pelagic fish resources appear unlikely unless couples with overfishing, although changes toward more subtropical community composition are likely. Marine mammals and seabirds that are tied to sparsely distributed nesting or resting grounds could experience difficulties in obtaining prey resources, or adaptively respond by moving to more favorable biogeographic provinces.},
author = {Bakun, Andrew and Black, Bryan A and Bograd, Steven J and Garc{\'{i}}a-Reyes, M. and Miller, Art J and Rykaczewski, Ryan R and Sydeman, William J},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-015-0008-4},
isbn = {2198-6061},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
keywords = {Climate change,Eastern boundary upwelling systems,Ecosystem effects,Hypoxia,Ocean acidity,Upwelling efficacy},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {85--93},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-015-0008-4},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Balch2017,
abstract = {The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightningignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal "fire niche" in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84{\%} of all wildfires and 44{\%} of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurredwhere fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant ({\textless}80{\%} of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2, primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards.},
author = {Balch, Jennifer K. and Bradley, Bethany A. and Abatzoglou, John T. and {Chelsea Nagy}, R. and Fusco, Emily J. and Mahood, Adam L.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1617394114},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Anthropogenic Wildfires,Fire Starts,Ignitions,Modern Fire Regimes,Wildfire Causes},
month = {mar},
number = {11},
pages = {2946--2951},
pmid = {28242690},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States}},
url = {www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1617394114},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pacchetti2021,
abstract = {There are now a plethora of data, models, and approaches available to produce regional and local climate information intended to inform adaptation to a changing climate. There is, however, no framework to assess the quality of these data, models, and approaches that takes into account the issues that arise when this information is produced. An evaluation of the quality of regional climate information is a fundamental requirement for its appropriate application in societal decision-making. Here, an analytical framework is constructed for the quality assessment of science-based statements and estimates about future climate. This framework targets statements that project local and regional climate at decadal and longer time scales. After identifying the main issues with evaluating and presenting regional climate information, it is argued that it is helpful to consider the quality of statements about future climate in terms of 1) the type of evidence and 2) the relationship between the evidence and the statement. This distinction not only provides a more targeted framework for quality, but also shows how certain evidential standards can change as a function of the statement under consideration. The key dimensions to assess regional climate information quality are diversity, completeness, theory, adequacy for purpose, and transparency. This framework is exemplified using two research papers that provide regional climate information and the implications of the framework are explored.},
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {{Baldissera Pacchetti}, Marina and Dessai, Suraje and Bradley, Seamus and Stainforth, David A},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0008.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
language = {English},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {E476--E491},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Assessing the Quality of Regional Climate Information}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-20-0008.1/BAMS-D-20-0008.1.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/3/BAMS-D-20-0008.1.xml},
volume = {102},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Ballesteros-Canovas2018,
abstract = {Ongoing climate warming has been demonstrated to impact the cryosphere in the Indian Himalayas, with substantial consequences for the risk of disasters, human well-being, and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present evidence that the warming observed in recent decades has been accompanied by increased snow avalanche frequency in the Western Indian Himalayas. Using dendrogeomorphic techniques, we reconstruct the longest time series (150 y) of the occurrence and runout distances of snow avalanches that is currently available for the Himalayas. We apply a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to demonstrate linkages between climate warming and the observed increase in the incidence of snow avalanches. Warming air temperatures in winter and early spring have indeed favored the wetting of snow and the formation of wet snow avalanches, which are now able to reach down to subalpine slopes, where they have high potential to cause damage. These findings contradict the intuitive notion that warming results in less snow, and thus lower avalanche activity, and have major implications for the Western Himalayan region, an area where human pressure is constantly increasing. Specifically, increasing traffic on a steadily expanding road network is calling for an immediate design of risk mitigation strategies and disaster risk policies to enhance climate change adaption in the wider study region.},
author = {Ballesteros-C{\'{a}}novas, J. A. and Trappmann, D. and Madrigal-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, J. and Eckert, N. and Stoffel, M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1716913115},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Climate change,Cryosphere,Himalayas,Snow avalanche,Tree rings},
month = {mar},
number = {13},
pages = {3410--3415},
pmid = {29535224},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1716913115},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{ballinger2011potential,
abstract = {Caveat This work was undertaken as a small component within the overall project to illustrate a risk-based approach to decision making under climate change. The work is not intended to serve specific planning purposes. Although we believe there is some potential in the approach used, the illustrative results provided are limited by significant data deficiencies, parameters chosen, and assumptions and results that could not be appropriately examined or ground-truthed given the limited resources available. See Appendix 1 for key caveats and assumptions.},
address = {Wellington, New Zealand},
author = {Ballinger, John and Jackson, Bethanna and Pechlivanidis, Ilias and Ries, William},
pages = {37},
publisher = {School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, and Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington},
title = {{Potential flooding and inundation on the Hutt River}},
url = {https://www.victoria.ac.nz/sgees/research-centres/documents/potential-flooding-and-inundation-on-the-hutt-river.pdf},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Bamunawala2018,
author = {Bamunawala, Janaka and Maskey, Shreedhar and Duong, Trang and van der Spek, Ad},
doi = {10.3390/jmse6030079},
issn = {2077-1312},
journal = {Journal of Marine Science and Engineering},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {79},
title = {{Significance of Fluvial Sediment Supply in Coastline Modelling at Tidal Inlets}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/6/3/79},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Barange2014,
abstract = {The future sustainability of global fisheries is unknown. Models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change are applied to 67 national exclusive economic zones, which cover 60{\%} of global fishery catches. This allows prediction of climate change impacts on countries with different dependencies on fisheries.},
author = {Barange, M. and Merino, G. and Blanchard, J. L. and Scholtens, J. and Harle, J. and Allison, E. H. and Allen, J. I. and Holt, J. and Jennings, S.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2119},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Developing world,Ecological modelling,Ecosystem services,Projection and prediction},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {211--216},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2119},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Barbero2020,
author = {Barbero, Renaud and Abatzoglou, John T and Pimont, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Ruffault, Julien and Curt, Thomas},
doi = {10.3389/feart.2020.00104},
issn = {2296-6463},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
month = {apr},
pages = {527278832},
publisher = {Frontiers Media SA},
title = {{Attributing Increases in Fire Weather to Anthropogenic Climate Change Over France}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2020.00104/full},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Barcikowska2019,
author = {Barcikowska, Monika Jolanta and Mu{\~{n}}oz, {\'{A}}ngel G and Weaver, Scott J and Russo, Simone and Wehner, Michael},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab4dea},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {124040},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{On the potential impact of a half-degree warming on cold and warm temperature extremes in mid-latitude North America}},
url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4dea https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4dea},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Barichivich2018a,
author = {Barichivich, Jonathan and Gloor, Emanuel and Peylin, Philippe and Brienen, Roel J.W. W. and Sch{\"{o}}ngart, Jochen and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Pattnayak, Kanhu C.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aat8785},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
title = {{Recent intensification of Amazon flooding extremes driven by strengthened Walker circulation}},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Barlow2016a,
abstract = {The Middle East and southwest Asia are a region that is water stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Ni{\~{n}}a, appears to play an important role in regionwide droughts, including the two most severe of the last 50 years—1999–2001 and 2007/08—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm-track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean region is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, the regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, the predictability of vegetation and crop yields, the stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.},
author = {Barlow, Mathew and Zaitchik, Benjamin and Paz, Shlomit and Black, Emily and Evans, Jason and Hoell, Andrew},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00692.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate prediction,Drought,Dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {8547--8574},
title = {{A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00692.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@misc{Barnes2019,
abstract = {Changes in stratospheric ozone and climate over the past 40-plus years have altered the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation conditions at the Earth's surface. Ozone depletion has also contributed to climate change across the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are interacting in complex ways to affect human health, food and water security, and ecosystem services. Many adverse effects of high UV exposure have been avoided thanks to the Montreal Protocol with its Amendments and Adjustments, which have effectively controlled the production and use of ozone-depleting substances. This international treaty has also played an important role in mitigating climate change. Climate change is modifying UV exposure and affecting how people and ecosystems respond to UV; these effects will become more pronounced in the future. The interactions between stratospheric ozone, climate and UV radiation will therefore shift over time; however, the Montreal Protocol will continue to have far-reaching benefits for human well-being and environmental sustainability.},
author = {Barnes, Paul W. and Williamson, Craig E. and Lucas, Robyn M. and Robinson, Sharon A. and Madronich, Sasha and Paul, Nigel D. and Bornman, Janet F. and Bais, Alkiviadis F. and Sulzberger, Barbara and Wilson, Stephen R. and Andrady, Anthony L. and McKenzie, Richard L. and Neale, Patrick J. and Austin, Amy T. and Bernhard, Germar H. and Solomon, Keith R. and Neale, Rachel E. and Young, Paul J. and Norval, Mary and Rhodes, Lesley E. and Hylander, Samuel and Rose, Kevin C. and Longstreth, Janice and Aucamp, Pieter J. and Ballar{\'{e}}, Carlos L. and Cory, Rose M. and Flint, Stephan D. and de Gruijl, Frank R. and H{\"{a}}der, Donat P. and Heikkil{\"{a}}, Anu M. and Jansen, Marcel A.K. and Pandey, Krishna K. and Robson, T. Matthew and Sinclair, Craig A. and W{\"{a}}ngberg, Sten {\AA}ke and Worrest, Robert C. and Yazar, Seyhan and Young, Antony R. and Zepp, Richard G.},
booktitle = {Nature Sustainability},
doi = {10.1038/s41893-019-0314-2},
issn = {23989629},
keywords = {Environmental health,Policy},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {569--579},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Ozone depletion, ultraviolet radiation, climate change and prospects for a sustainable future}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0314-2},
volume = {2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Barreau2017,
abstract = {OBJECTIVES To evaluate health impacts of drought during the most severe drought in California's recorded history with a rapid assessment method. METHODS We conducted Community Assessments for Public Health Emergency Response during October through November 2015 in Tulare County and Mariposa County to evaluate household water access, acute stressors, exacerbations of chronic diseases and behavioral health issues, and financial impacts. We evaluated pairwise associations by logistic regression with pooled data. RESULTS By assessment area, households reported not having running water (3{\%}-12{\%}); impacts on finances (25{\%}-39{\%}), property (39{\%}-54{\%}), health (10{\%}-20{\%}), and peace of mind (33{\%}-61{\%}); worsening of a chronic disease (16{\%}-46{\%}); acute stress (8{\%}-26{\%}); and considering moving (14{\%}-34{\%}). Impacts on finances or property were each associated with impacts on health and peace of mind, and acute stress. CONCLUSIONS Drought-impacted households might perceive physical and mental health effects and might experience financial or property impacts related to the drought. Public Health Implications. Local jurisdictions should consider implementing drought assistance programs, including behavioral health, and consider rapid assessments to inform public health action.},
author = {Barreau, Tracy and Conway, David and Haught, Karen and Jackson, Rebecca and Kreutzer, Richard and Lockman, Andrew and Minnick, Sharon and Roisman, Rachel and Rozell, David and Smorodinsky, Svetlana and Tafoya, Dana and Wilken, Jason A.},
doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2017.303695},
issn = {0090-0036},
journal = {American Journal of Public Health},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {783--790},
pmid = {28323464},
title = {{Physical, Mental, and Financial Impacts From Drought in Two California Counties, 2015}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28323464 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC5388959 http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2017.303695},
volume = {107},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Barros2015,
abstract = {In most of Argentina, the warming since 1901 was a little lower than the global average, although with strong trends in temperature extremes and in heat waves during the most recent decades. There was a remarkable increase in precipitation over most of subtropical Argentina, especially since 1960. This has favored agriculture yields and the extension of crop lands into semiarid regions, but this increase also came with more frequent heavy rainfalls and consequent flooding of rural and urban areas. Since the early 1970s, the main rivers of the Plata Basin have increased their mean flows, but this was attributable not only to increased precipitation, but also to land use changes. In contrast, over the Andes Mountains, reduced rainfall and increased temperature has led to glaciers receding and reduced river flows. Climate projections for the first half of this century maintain observed trends and raise additional concerns that in most cases can be dealt with timely adaptation policies. However, by the end of this century, under an extreme emissions scenario, the projected warming reaches 3.5°C in the north of the country with respect to present-day conditions. There is insufficient knowledge to assume that this warming would not create severe damages to the people and the economy of Argentina. Because of the damages and casualties that heat waves and extreme precipitation events are already producing, the first and most urgent adaptation required is to reinforce early warning systems and contingency planning to cope with climatic extremes and their consequences on health.},
author = {Barros, Vicente Ricardo and Boninsegna, Jos{\'{e}} Armando and Camilloni, In{\'{e}}s Angela and Chidiak, Martina and Magr{\'{i}}n, Graciela Odilia and Rusticucci, Matilde},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.316},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {151--169},
title = {{Climate change in Argentina: trends, projections, impacts and adaptation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.316},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6079,
abstract = {This paper has examined the relative significance of uncertainty in future climate projections from a subset of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models for the Prairie Provinces of western Canada. This was undertaken by determining: (a) the contribution of model and scenario uncertainty and natural variability to the total variance of these future projections, and (b) the timing of climate signal emergence from the background noise of natural climate variability. We examined future projections of mean temperature, precipitation and summer climate moisture index (CMI). In this region, natural climate variability plays an important role in future uncertainty until the end of this century, particularly for precipitation and to a lesser extent, summer CMI. Model uncertainty also contributes to total uncertainty for these variables throughout this century, while scenario uncertainty becomes more important towards the end of the century. For the region as a whole, significant climate change (i.e., signal/noise {\textgreater}2) occurs earliest for summer mean temperature, with median time of emergence around 2035 for the RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario. Although the median precipitation signal emerges from the noise (i.e., signal/noise {\textgreater}1) around the 2070s in winter and the 2080s in spring, significant values do not occur in any season for this variable before 2100. For summer CMI, the median time of emergence for significant change is around 2085. At the grid scale, signal-to-noise ratios are significant for all seasons for mean surface air temperature, with earliest times of emergence occurring in summer. In contrast, the summer precipitation signal is not significant this century; for summer CMI, significant values are obtained in the eastern half of the region, occurring from about 2065 onwards. Median times of emergence are towards the end of the century for summer CMI in western Saskatchewan and in Alberta, although some areas of Alberta do not exhibit significant signals this century.},
author = {Barrow, Elaine M and Sauchyn, David J},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6079},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {CMIP5,natural variability,time of emergence,uncertainty,variance partitioning},
number = {11},
pages = {4358--4371},
title = {{Uncertainty in climate projections and time of emergence of climate signals in the western Canadian Prairies}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6079},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bartok2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. The objective of the present work is to compare the projections of surface solar radiation (SSR) simulated by four regional climate models (CCLM, RCA4, WRF, ALADIN) with the respective fields of their ten driving CMIP5 global climate models. First the annual and seasonal SSR changes are examined in the regional and in the global climate models based on the RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The results show significant discrepancies between the projected SSR, the multi-model mean of RCMs indicates a decrease in SSR of −0.60 W/m2per decade over Europe, while the multi-model mean of the associated GCMs used to drive the RCMs gives an increase in SSR of +0.39 W/m2per decade for the period of 2006–2100 over Europe. At seasonal scale the largest differences appear in spring and summer. The different signs of SSR projected changes can be interpreted as the consequence of the different behavior of cloud cover in global and regional climate models. Cloudiness shows a significant decline in GCMs with −0.24{\%} per decade which explains the extra income in SSR, while in case of the regional models no significant changes in cloudiness can be detected. The reduction of SSR in RCMs can be attributed to increasing atmospheric absorption in line with the increase of water vapor content. Both global and regional models overestimate SSR in absolute terms as compared to surface observations, in line with an underestimation of cloud cover. Regional models further have difficulties to adequately reproduce the observed trends in SSR over the past decades.},
author = {Bart{\'{o}}k, Blanka and Wild, Martin and Folini, Doris and L{\"{u}}thi, Daniel and Kotlarski, Sven and Sch{\"{a}}r, Christoph and Vautard, Robert and Jerez, Sonia and Imecs, Zolt{\'{a}}n},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {oct},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2665--2683},
title = {{Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bartiko2019,
abstract = {Brazil has some of the largest rivers in the world and has the second greatest flood loss potential among the emergent countries. Despite that, flood studies in this area are still scarce. In this paper, we used flood seasonality and trend analysis at the annual and seasonal scales in order to describe flood regimes and changes across the whole of Brazil in the period 1976–2015. We identified a strong seasonality of floods and a well-defined spatio-temporal pattern for flood occurrence. There are positive trends in the frequency and magnitude of floods in the North, South and parts of Southeast Brazil; and negative trends in the North-east and the remainder of Southeast Brazil. Trends in the magnitude (frequency) were predominant in the winter (summer). Overall, floods are becoming more frequent and intense in Brazilian regions characterized by wet conditions, and less frequent and intense in drier regions.},
author = {Bartiko, D. and Oliveira, D. Y. and Bonum{\'{a}}, N. B. and Chaffe, P. L. B.},
doi = {10.1080/02626667.2019.1619081},
issn = {0262-6667},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
month = {jul},
number = {9},
pages = {1071--1079},
title = {{Spatial and seasonal patterns of flood change across Brazil}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2019.1619081},
volume = {64},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bartos2016,
author = {Bartos, Matthew and Chester, Mikhail and Johnson, Nathan and Gorman, Brandon and Eisenberg, Daniel and Linkov, Igor and Bates, Matthew},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114008},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {114008},
title = {{Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=11/a=114008?key=crossref.8b7067b23c25e0ae8884c5213d6c9161},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Basha2017,
author = {Basha, Ghouse and Kishore, P and Ratnam, M Venkat and Jayaraman, A and {Agha Kouchak}, Amir and Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. and Velicogna, Isabella},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-02130-3},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {2987},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-02130-3},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bassiouni2013,
abstract = {This study addresses a need to document changes in streamflow and base flow (groundwater discharge to streams) in Hawai‘i during the past century. Statistically significant long‐term (1913–2008) downward trends were detected (using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test) in low‐streamflow and base‐flow records. These long‐term downward trends are likely related to a statistically significant downward shift around 1943 detected (using the nonparametric Pettitt test) in index records of streamflow and base flow. The downward shift corresponds to a decrease of 22{\%} in median streamflow and a decrease of 23{\%} in median base flow between the periods 1913–1943 and 1943–2008. The shift coincides with other local and regional factors, including a change from a positive to a negative phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, shifts in the direction of the trade winds over Hawai‘i, and a reforestation programme. The detected shift and long‐term trends reflect region‐wide changes in climatic and land‐cover factors. A weak pattern of downward trends in base flows during the period 1943–2008 may indicate a continued decrease in base flows after the 1943 shift. Downward trends were detected more commonly in base‐flow records than in high‐streamflow, peak‐flow, and rainfall records. The decrease in base flow is likely related to a decrease in groundwater storage and recharge and therefore is a valuable indicator of decreasing water availability and watershed vulnerability to hydrologic changes. Whether the downward trends will continue is largely uncertain given the uncertainty in climate‐change projections and watershed responses to changes.},
author = {Bassiouni, Maoya and Oki, Delwyn S.},
doi = {10.1002/hyp.9298},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
number = {10},
pages = {1484--1500},
title = {{Trends and shifts in streamflow in Hawai'i, 1913-2008}},
volume = {27},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Bassu2014,
abstract = {Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha-1per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 $\mu$mol mol-1increased grain yield by 7.5{\%} on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information. {\textcopyright} 2014 John Wiley.},
author = {Bassu, Simona and Brisson, Nadine and Durand, Jean-Louis and Boote, Kenneth and Lizaso, Jon and Jones, James W. and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Ruane, Alex C. and Adam, Myriam and Baron, Christian and Basso, Bruno and Biernath, Christian and Boogaard, Hendrik and Conijn, Sjaak and Corbeels, Marc and Deryng, Delphine and {De Sanctis}, Giacomo and Gayler, Sebastian and Grassini, Patricio and Hatfield, Jerry and Hoek, Steven and Izaurralde, Cesar and Jongschaap, Raymond and Kemanian, Armen R. and Kersebaum, K. Christian and Kim, Soo-Hyung and Kumar, Naresh S. and Makowski, David and M{\"{u}}ller, Christoph and Nendel, Claas and Priesack, Eckart and Pravia, Maria Virginia and Sau, Federico and Shcherbak, Iurii and Tao, Fulu and Teixeira, Edmar and Timlin, Dennis and Waha, Katharina},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.12520},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {AgMIP,Climate,Maize,Model intercomparison,Simulation,Temperature,Uncertainty},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {2301--2320},
title = {{How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.12520},
volume = {20},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Basu2018,
abstract = {Abstract Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these changes in storm activity.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/2017EF000670},
author = {Basu, Soumik and Zhang, Xiangdong and Wang, Zhaomin},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000670},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {CMIP5,Eurasian winter storms,Extratropical cyclones,Future climate variability},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {61--70},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Eurasian Winter Storm Activity at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble Projection}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000670},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Baztan2020,
abstract = {The goal of this paper is to analyze how and with what results place-based climate service co-production may be enacted within a community for whom climate change is not a locally salient concern. Aiming to initiate a climate-centered dialogue, a hybrid team of scientists and artists collected local narratives within the Kerourien neighbourhood, in the city of Brest in Brittany, France. Kerourien is a place known for its stigmatizing crime, poverty, marginalization and state of disrepair. Social work is higher on the agenda than climate action. The team thus acknowledged that local narratives might not make much mention of climate change, and recognized part of the work might be to shift awareness to the actual or potential, current or future, connections between everyday non-climate concerns and climate issues. Such a shift called for a practical intervention, centered on local culture. The narrative collection process was dovetailed with preparing the neighbourhood's 50th anniversary celebration and establishing a series of art performances to celebrate the neighbourhood and its residents. Non-climate and quasi-climate stories were collected, documented, and turned into art forms. The elements of climate service co-production in this process are twofold. First, they point to the ways in which non-climate change related local concerns may be mapped out in relation to climate change adaptation, showing how non-climate change concerns call for climate information. Secondly, they show how the co-production of climate services may go beyond the provision of climate information by generating procedural benefits such as local empowerment – thus generating capacities that may be mobilized to face climate change. We conclude by stressing that “place-based climate service co-production for action” may require questioning the nature of the “services” rendered, questioning the nature of “place,” and questioning what “action” entails. We offer leads for addressing these questions in ways that help realise empowerment and greater social justice.},
author = {Baztan, Juan and Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul and Jaffr{\`{e}}s, Lionel and Jorgensen, Bethany and Zhu, Zhiwei},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2020.100253},
issn = {2212-0963},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
keywords = {Arts and Sciences,Brittany,Climate services,Co-production,Narrative,Transdisciplinary},
pages = {100253},
title = {{Facing climate injustices: Community trust-building for climate services through arts and sciences narrative co-production}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096320300437},
volume = {30},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Baztan2017,
author = {Baztan, Juan and Cordier, Mateo and Huctin, Jean-Michel and Zhu, Zhiwei and Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul},
doi = {10.1016/j.polar.2017.05.002},
issn = {18739652},
journal = {Polar Science},
month = {sep},
pages = {100--108},
title = {{Life on thin ice: Insights from Uummannaq, Greenland for connecting climate science with Arctic communities}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1873965216301311 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1873965216301311},
volume = {13},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Beach2019,
abstract = {Background: Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) affect global nutrition via effects on agricultural productivity and nutrient content of food crops. We combined these effects with economic projections to estimate net changes in nutrient availability between 2010 and 2050. Methods: In this modelling study, we used the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade to project per capita availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050. We used estimated changes in productivity of individual agricultural commodities to model effects on production, trade, prices, and consumption under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Two independent sources of data, which used different methodologies to determine the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on different key crops, were combined with the modelled food supply results to estimate future nutrient availability. Findings: Although technological change, market responses, and the effects of CO2 fertilisation on yield are projected to increase global availability of dietary protein, iron, and zinc, these increases are moderated by negative effects of climate change affecting productivity and carbon penalties on nutrient content. The carbon nutrient penalty results in decreases in the global availability of dietary protein of 4{\textperiodcentered}1{\%}, iron of 2{\textperiodcentered}8{\%}, and zinc of 2{\textperiodcentered}5{\%} as calculated using one dataset, and decreases in global availability of dietary protein of 2{\textperiodcentered}9{\%}, iron of 3{\textperiodcentered}9{\%}, and zinc of 3{\textperiodcentered}4{\%} using the other dataset. The combined effects of projected increases in atmospheric CO2 (ie, carbon nutrient penalty, CO2 fertilisation, and climate effects on productivity) will decrease growth in the global availability of nutrients by 19{\textperiodcentered}5{\%} for protein, 14{\textperiodcentered}4{\%} for iron, and 14{\textperiodcentered}6{\%} for zinc relative to expected technology and market gains by 2050. The many countries that currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency would continue to be disproportionately affected. Interpretation: This approach is an improvement in estimating future global food security by simultaneously projecting climate change effects on crop productivity and changes in nutrient content under increased concentrations of CO2, which accounts for a much larger effect on nutrient availability than CO2 fertilisation. Regardless of the scenario used to project future consumption patterns, the net effect of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 will slow progress in decreasing global nutrient deficiencies. Funding: US Environmental Protection Agency, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CIGAR) Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS).},
author = {Beach, Robert H. and Sulser, Timothy B. and Crimmins, Allison and Cenacchi, Nicola and Cole, Jefferson and Fukagawa, Naomi K. and Mason-D'Croz, Daniel and Myers, Samuel and Sarofim, Marcus C. and Smith, Matthew and Ziska, Lewis H.},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30094-4},
issn = {25425196},
journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {e307--e317},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study}},
volume = {3},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bebber2015,
author = {Bebber, Daniel Patrick},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-phyto-080614-120207},
issn = {0066-4286},
journal = {Annual Review of Phytopathology},
month = {aug},
number = {1},
pages = {335--356},
title = {{Range-Expanding Pests and Pathogens in a Warming World}},
url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-phyto-080614-120207},
volume = {53},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bedia2015a,
abstract = {Fire is an integral Earth system process, playing an important role in the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and affecting the carbon cycle at the global scale. Fire activity is controlled by a number of biophysical factors, including climate, whose relevance varies across regions and landscapes. In light of the ongoing climate change, understanding the fire-climate relationships is an issue of current interest in order to identify the most vulnerable regions. Building upon recent global observations of burned areas and climate, we investigate the sensitivity of fire activity to fire-weather across the world's major biomes. We identify the biomes susceptible to inter-annual fire-weather fluctuations, unveiling a non-linear relationship with a saturation threshold past which the area burned can be considered insensitive to increasing fire-weather. Our results depict an unambiguous spatial pattern that identifies the world regions where short-term climate fluctuations are unlikely to produce any significant effect on current fire activity, and those most sensitive to fire-weather changes. In particular, the boreal forests and extensive areas of tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests (excluding Africa) as well as sizeable areas of temperate broadleaf forests are identified as highly sensitive. We then present near-future fire-weather scenarios (period 2026-2045) using a state-of-the-art ensemble or Earth System Models (ESMs) from the CMIP5 database, considering a moderate and a high emission scenario (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). The projected anomalies in fire-weather for the vulnerable temperate biomes are small in magnitude and their direction is either negative or just slightly positive, although significant differences in the projected probability density functions suggest that disruptions of fire regimes may occur locally. Other sensitive ecosystems, like the rain forests of the Amazon basin may experience a significant increment in fire-weather that may result in severe impacts on fire regimes as a direct consequence of climate change in the next decades.},
author = {Bedia, Joaqu{\'{i}}n and Herrera, Sixto and Guti{\'{e}}rrez, Jose Manuel and Benali, Akli and Brands, Swen and Mota, Bernardo and Moreno, Jose Manuel},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.002},
issn = {01681923},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
keywords = {Biomass burning,CMIP5,Fire Weather Index,Fire risk,Forest fires,Pyrogeography},
month = {dec},
pages = {369--379},
title = {{Global patterns in the sensitivity of burned area to fire-weather: Implications for climate change}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168192315007078},
volume = {214-215},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bedia2014a,
author = {Bedia, J. and Herrera, S. and Camia, A. and Moreno, J. M. and Guti{\'{e}}rrez, J. M.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-1005-z},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {185--199},
title = {{Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-1005-z},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Behrenfeld2016,
abstract = {Global satellite observations document expansions of the low-chlorophyll central ocean gyres and an overall inverse relationship between anomalies in sea surface temperature and phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations. These findings can provide an invaluable glimpse into potential future ocean changes, but only if the story they tell is accurately interpreted. Chlorophyll is not simply a measure of phytoplankton biomass, but also registers changes in intracellular pigmentation arising from light-driven (photoacclimation) and nutrient-driven physiological responses. Here, we show that the photoacclimation response is an important component of temporal chlorophyll variability across the global ocean. This attribution implies that contemporary relationships between chlorophyll changes and ocean warming are not indicative of proportional changes in productivity, as light-driven decreases in chlorophyll can be associated with constant or even increased photosynthesis. Extension of these results to future change, however, requires further evaluation of how the multifaceted stressors of a warmer, higher-CO2 world will impact plankton communities.},
author = {Behrenfeld, Michael J. and O'Malley, Robert T. and Boss, Emmanuel S. and Westberry, Toby K. and Graff, Jason R. and Halsey, Kimberly H. and Milligan, Allen J. and Siegel, David A. and Brown, Matthew B.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2838},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {323--330},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Revaluating ocean warming impacts on global phytoplankton}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2838},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bell2013,
abstract = {Climate change has the potential to disrupt marine habitats and food webs. Targeted multidisciplinary research reveals how this is likely to affect the contributions of fisheries and aquaculture to the food security and economies of Pacific islands.},
author = {Bell, Johann D. and Ganachaud, Alexandre and Gehrke, Peter C. and Griffiths, Shane P. and Hobday, Alistair J. and Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove and Johnson, Johanna E. and {Le Borgne}, Robert and Lehodey, Patrick and Lough, Janice M. and Matear, Richard J. and Pickering, Timothy D. and Pratchett, Morgan S. and Gupta, Alex Sen and Senina, Inna and Waycott, Michelle},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1838},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Fisheries,Freshwater ecology},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {591--599},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1838},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Bell2019,
abstract = {A recently validated algorithm for detecting and tracking tropical cyclones (TCs) in coarse resolution climate models was applied to a selected group of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to assess potential changes in TC track characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) due to greenhouse warming. Current-climate simulations over the period 1970–2000 are first evaluated against observations using measures of TC genesis location and frequency, as well as track trajectory and lifetime in seven objectively defined genesis regions. The 12-model (12-M) ensemble showed substantial skill in reproducing a realistic TC climatology over the evaluation period. To address potential biases associated with model interdependency, analyses were repeated with an ensemble of five independent models (5-M). Results from both the 12-M and 5-M ensembles were very similar, instilling confidence in the models for climate projections if the current TC-climate relationship is to remain stationary. Projected changes in TC track density between the current- and future-climate (2070–2100) simulations under the Representatives Concentration 8.5 Pathways (RCP8.5) are also assessed. Overall, projection results showed a substantial decrease ({\~{}} 1–3 per decade) in track density over most parts of the SH by the end of the twenty-first century. This decrease is attributed to a significant reduction in TC numbers ({\~{}} 15–42{\%}) consistent with changes in large-scale environmental parameters such as relative vorticity, environmental vertical wind shear and relative humidity. This study may assist with adaption pathways and implications for regional-scale climate change for vulnerable regions in the SH.},
author = {Bell, Samuel S. and Chand, Savin S. and Tory, Kevin J. and Dowdy, Andrew J. and Turville, Chris and Ye, Harvey},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4497-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {9-10},
pages = {6065--6079},
title = {{Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4497-4},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bellaire2016,
abstract = {Long-term changes of the global climate system have been observed. However, the effect of long-term changes in the climate system on avalanche hazard in mountainous areas remains inconclusive. For this study we analyzed long-term weather, snow cover, and avalanche data from Glacier National Park. Weather and snow cover data were measured at two sites (1315. m and 1905. m. a.s.l.). The avalanche data were observed along the section of the Trans Canada Highway within the park. Meteorological data were analyzed by winter season, i.e. early, mid and late winter, represented by three-month periods between September and May. Increasing trends were found for the mean seasonal air temperature at both stations during the mid season. Trends for the solid precipitation rate were not significant, indicating no trend towards more rain events. Decreasing trends of the maximum snow depth were only found for the lower elevation station at Rogers Pass for the mid and late season, which is consistent with decreasing trends for all seasons of the mean 24-hour new snow amounts at the lower elevation and for the mid season at the higher elevation station at Mt. Fidelity. Due to uncertainty arising from changes in explosive control, we draw no conclusions regarding the regional change of avalanche activity. However, the weather and snowpack trends observed in Glacier National Park are consistent with longer time series from mountains with similar latitudes and elevations in {\_}afsta},
author = {Bellaire, Sascha and Jamieson, Bruce and Thumlert, Scott and Goodrich, Jeff and Statham, Grant},
doi = {10.1016/j.coldregions.2015.10.010},
issn = {0165232X},
journal = {Cold Regions Science and Technology},
keywords = {Avalanche activity,Avalanche formation,Climate change,Crust formation,Glacier National Park,Solid precipitation rate},
month = {jan},
pages = {118--125},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Analysis of long-term weather, snow and avalanche data at Glacier National Park, B.C., Canada}},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{BelusicVozila2019,
abstract = {Near-surface winds over the Adriatic region are examined under present-day and future climate conditions for two greenhouse gas scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) with an ensemble of high-resolution (0.11°) Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations. The influence of particular combinations of regional climate models and global climate models and emission scenarios on the future changes in the near-surface wind field has been explored in more detail. Starting with the seasonal climate change signal in large-scale flow over the entire CORDEX domain, we focus on regional daily wind fields over the Adriatic domain and subdaily features of well-known regional winds (Bora and Sirocco winds). The analysis reveals the strong sensitivity of the climate change signal in the simulated wind flow to (i) the choice of the global climate model that provides the boundary conditions and (ii) the analyzed locations across the Adriatic region. The results of the 21st-century projections indicate that the changes in synoptic activity have an impact on the wind field at the (sub)daily time scale. We found a reduction in the number of Bora events and increase in the number of Sirocco events in northern Adriatic during the winter season, with an increase in pressure in the middle of the 21st century. Overall, the mean wind speed during Bora and Sirocco events is reduced, except for Bora in northern Adriatic. For the summer season, we found a large increase in the number of thermally induced flows, which is probably caused by the weakening of the Azores High.},
author = {{Belu{\v{s}}i{\'{c}} Vozila}, Andreina and G{\"{u}}ttler, Ivan and Ahrens, Bodo and Obermann-Hellhund, Anika and {Teli{\v{s}}man Prtenjak}, Maja},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD028552},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Adriatic region,Bora/Sirocco,CORDEX,regional climate models,wind field},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {110--130},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Wind Over the Adriatic Region in CORDEX Climate Change Scenarios}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018JD028552},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ben-Ari2018,
abstract = {In 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in the world suffered its most extreme yield loss in over half a century. Yet, yield forecasting systems failed to anticipate this event. We show that this unprecedented event is a new type of compound extreme with a conjunction of abnormally warm temperatures in late autumn and abnormally wet conditions in the following spring. A binomial logistic regression accounting for fall and spring conditions is able to capture key yield loss events since 1959. Based on climate projections, we show that the conditions that led to the 2016 wheat yield loss are projected to become more frequent in the future. The increased likelihood of such compound extreme events poses a challenge: farming systems and yield forecasting systems, which often support them, must adapt.},
author = {Ben-Ari, Tamara and Bo{\'{e}}, Julien and Ciais, Philippe and Lecerf, Remi and {Van der Velde}, Marijn and Makowski, David},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04087-x},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {1627},
title = {{Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04087-x},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Benestad2017,
abstract = {Climate simulation data comprise a range of different phenomena with complex and interacting processes. Yet our understanding of the climate is incomplete despite the huge volumes of data, of which only a small fraction has been explored, and many questions remain, particularly those on the character and origin of uncertainties associated with model simulations and how further modelling efforts can improve understanding. Here, we question whether climate model information could be used more effectively and how so-called 'ensembles of opportunity' should be interpreted. Statisticians can contribute substantially to designing 'smarter' ensemble experiments, improving the distillation of information from ensembles, and helping interpret the relative merits of additional simulations. Future progress may be enhanced by increasing collaborations with statisticians.},
author = {Benestad, Rasmus and Sillmann, Jana and Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda and Guttorp, Peter and Mesquita, Michel d. S. and Tye, Mari R. and Uotila, Petteri and Maule, Cathrine Fox and Thejll, Peter and Drews, Martin and Parding, Kajsa M.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3393},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {697--703},
title = {{New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3393},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Beniston2014,
author = {Beniston, Martin and Stoffel, Markus},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.11.122},
issn = {0048-9697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
pages = {1129--1137},
title = {{Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources}},
volume = {493},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Beniston2018,
abstract = {Abstract. The mountain cryosphere of mainland Europe is recognized to have important impacts on a range of environmental processes. In this paper, we provide an overview on the current knowledge on snow, glacier, and permafrost processes, as well as their past, current, and future evolution. We additionally provide an assessment of current cryosphere research in Europe and point to the different domains requiring further research. Emphasis is given to our understanding of climate–cryosphere interactions, cryosphere controls on physical and biological mountain systems, and related impacts. By the end of the century, Europe's mountain cryosphere will have changed to an extent that will impact the landscape, the hydrological regimes, the water resources, and the infrastructure. The impacts will not remain confined to the mountain area but also affect the downstream lowlands, entailing a wide range of socioeconomical consequences. European mountains will have a completely different visual appearance, in which low- and mid-range-altitude glaciers will have disappeared and even large valley glaciers will have experienced significant retreat and mass loss. Due to increased air temperatures and related shifts from solid to liquid precipitation, seasonal snow lines will be found at much higher altitudes, and the snow season will be much shorter than today. These changes in snow and ice melt will cause a shift in the timing of discharge maxima, as well as a transition of runoff regimes from glacial to nival and from nival to pluvial. This will entail significant impacts on the seasonality of high-altitude water availability, with consequences for water storage and management in reservoirs for drinking water, irrigation, and hydropower production. Whereas an upward shift of the tree line and expansion of vegetation can be expected into current periglacial areas, the disappearance of permafrost at lower altitudes and its warming at higher elevations will likely result in mass movements and process chains beyond historical experience. Future cryospheric research has the responsibility not only to foster awareness of these expected changes and to develop targeted strategies to precisely quantify their magnitude and rate of occurrence but also to help in the development of approaches to adapt to these changes and to mitigate their consequences. Major joint efforts are required in the domain of cryospheric monitoring, which will require coordination in terms of data availability and quality. In particular, we recognize the quantification of high-altitude precipitation as a key source of uncertainty in projections of future changes. Improvements in numerical modeling and a better understanding of process chains affecting high-altitude mass movements are the two further fields that – in our view – future cryospheric research should focus on.},
author = {Beniston, Martin and Farinotti, Daniel and Stoffel, Markus and Andreassen, Liss M and Coppola, Erika and Eckert, Nicolas and Fantini, Adriano and Giacona, Florie and Hauck, Christian and Huss, Matthias and Huwald, Hendrik and Lehning, Michael and L{\'{o}}pez-Moreno, Juan-Ignacio and Magnusson, Jan and Marty, Christoph and Mor{\'{a}}n-Tej{\'{e}}da, Enrique and Morin, Samuel and Naaim, Mohamed and Provenzale, Antonello and Rabatel, Antoine and Six, Delphine and St{\"{o}}tter, Johann and Strasser, Ulrich and Terzago, Silvia and Vincent, Christian},
doi = {10.5194/tc-12-759-2018},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {759--794},
title = {{The European mountain cryosphere: a review of its current state, trends, and future challenges}},
url = {https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/759/2018/},
volume = {12},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bennett2016a,
abstract = {California's ongoing, unprecedented drought is having profound impacts on the state's resources. Here we assess its impact on 98 deep-seated, slow-moving landslides in Northern California. We used aerial photograph analysis, satellite interferometry, and satellite pixel tracking to measure earthflow velocities spanning 1944–2015 and compared these trends with the Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for soil moisture and pore pressure that governs landslide motion. We find that earthflow velocities reached a historical low in the 2012–2015 drought, but that their deceleration began at the turn of the century in response to a longer-term moisture deficit. Our analysis implies depth-dependent sensitivity of earthflows to climate forcing, with thicker earthflows reflecting longer-term climate trends and thinner earthflows exhibiting less systematic velocity variations. These findings have implications for mechanical-hydrologic interactions that link landslide movement with climate change as well as sediment delivery in the region.},
author = {Bennett, G. L. and Roering, J. J. and Mackey, B. H. and Handwerger, A. L. and Schmidt, D. A. and Guillod, B. P.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL068378},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Worldview,aerial photograph,drought,earthflow,landslide,pixel tracking},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5725--5731},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Historic drought puts the brakes on earthflows in Northern California}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL068378},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Benson2012,
abstract = {Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855-6 to 2004-5 and 1905-6 to 2004-5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975-6 to 2004-5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0. 3-1. 6 later for freeze, 0. 5-1. 9 earlier for breakup, and 0. 7-4. 3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions. {\textcopyright} 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.},
author = {Benson, Barbara J. and Magnuson, John J. and Jensen, Olaf P. and Card, Virginia M. and Hodgkins, Glenn and Korhonen, Johanna and Livingstone, David M. and Stewart, Kenton M. and Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A. and Granin, Nick G.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0212-8},
issn = {01650009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric Sciences,Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {299--323},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0212-8},
volume = {112},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Berghuijs2014,
abstract = {In a warming climate, precipitation is less likely to occur as snowfall1,2 . A shift from a snow- towards a rain-dominated regime is currently assumed not to influence the mean stream- flow significantly1,3–5 . Contradicting the current paradigm, we argue that mean streamflow is likely to reduce for catchments that experience significant reductions in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow.With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population depending on meltwater for their water supply3 and ecosystems that can be sensitive to streamflow alterations6 , the socio-economic consequences of a reduction in streamflowcanbesubstantial.By applying theBudykowater balance framework7 to catchments located throughout the contiguousUnitedStateswedemonstratethatahigherfraction of precipitation falling as snowis associated with higher mean streamflow, compared to catchments with marginal or no snowfall. Furthermore,we showthat the fraction of each year's precipitation falling as snowfall has a significant influence on theannualstreamflowwithin individual catchments.Thisstudy is limited to introducing these observations; process-based understanding at the catchment scale is not yet provided. Given the importance of streamflow for society, further studies are required to respond to the consequences of a temperature-induced precipitation shift from snow to rain.},
author = {Berghuijs, W. R. and Woods, R. A. and Hrachowitz, M.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2246},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {583--586},
title = {{A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2246},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Bessembinder2019,
abstract = {A comprehensive typology or characterization of the various types of climate services is needed to give an overview that makes (potential) users aware of which climate services are available and where to look for them. It helps identify existing gaps in terms of unserved needs of the users. Different ways of characterizing climate services are used in practice. The factors used for this characterization differ depending on the intended application of the service, the delivery mechanism and project- or user-specific needs. In this paper we discuss the advantages and challenges of using different characterization factors, such as sectors, themes, regions, purposes, time horizons, data sources, level of processing of climate data, background knowledge and type of climate services providers. Some recommendations are given on the factors to use for a common typology of climate services which are understood by a wide range of users. It may be difficult to create a single common typology that will also be understood by users with little background knowledge on climate data. Intermediaries, providing training resources and guidance at web portals on how to use and interpret climate information, can be essential to overcome this problem. Gap analysis is used to compare available and required climate services. Therefore, we advise to use the same typology for the analysis of gaps in available climate services.},
author = {Bessembinder, Janette and Terrado, Marta and Hewitt, Chris and Garrett, Natalie and Kotova, Lola and Buonocore, Mauro and Groenland, Rob},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100135},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Climate services,Region specific,Sector specific,Typology},
pages = {100135},
title = {{Need for a common typology of climate services}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880719300767},
volume = {16},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bessette-Kirton2019a,
abstract = {Hurricane Maria hit the island of Puerto Rico on 20 September 2017 and triggered more than 40,000 landslides in at least three-fourths of Puerto Rico's 78 municipalities. The number of landslides that occurred during this event was two orders of magnitude greater than those reported from previous hurricanes. Landslide source areas were commonly limited to surficial soils but also extended into underlying saprolite and bedrock. Slope failures occurred before, during, and after flooding, and many transitioned into long run-out debris flows. Steep slopes in hilly and mountainous regions were particularly impacted by landslides due to antecedent soil moisture levels that were 11{\%}-13{\%} higher than average and rainfall totals of at least 250 mm within a 48 h period. High landslide densities were especially widespread across some geologic formations (e.g., granodiorite of the Utuado batholith); however, bedrock geology alone did not determine the location and distribution of landslides caused by Hurricane Maria. While rainfall data collected during Hurricane Maria were inconsistent, satellite-based soil moisture data were correlated with the distribution of landslides. In the future, the use of soil moisture data could enable assessments of regional landslide susceptibility prior to hurricanes or extreme precipitation events.},
author = {Bessette-Kirton, Erin K. and Cerovski-Darriau, Corina and Schulz, William H. and Coe, Jeffrey A. and Kean, Jason W. and Godt, Jonathan W. and Thomas, Matthew A. and {Stephen Hughes}, K.},
doi = {10.1130/GSATG383A.1},
issn = {10525173},
journal = {GSA Today},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {4--10},
publisher = {Geological Society of America},
title = {{Landslides Triggered by Hurricane Maria: Assessment of an Extreme Event in Puerto Rico}},
url = {https://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/science/G383A/article.htm},
volume = {29},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Betts2018a,
abstract = {We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25{\%}. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76{\%} of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.},
annote = {From Duplicate 2 (Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model - Betts, R A; Alfieri, L; Bradshaw, C; Caesar, J; Feyen, L; Friedlingstein, P; Gohar, L; Koutroulis, A; Lewis, K; Morfopoulos, C; Papadimitriou, L; Richardson, K J; Tsanis, I; Wyser, K)

Times Cited: 14
Betts, Richard A. Alfieri, Lorenzo Bradshaw, Catherine Caesar, John Feyen, Luc Friedlingstein, Pierre Gohar, Laila Koutroulis, Aristeidis Lewis, Kirsty Morfopoulos, Catherine Papadimitriou, Lamprini Richardson, Katy J. Tsanis, Ioannis Wyser, Klaus
Betts, Richard/P-8976-2015; Caesar, John/D-1403-2015; Friedlingstein, Pierre/H-2700-2014; Koutroulis, Aristeidis/O-9601-2016
Caesar, John/0000-0003-1094-9618; Koutroulis, Aristeidis/0000-0002-2999-7575
15
1471-2962},
author = {Betts, Richard A and Alfieri, Lorenzo and Bradshaw, Catherine and Caesar, John and Feyen, Luc and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Gohar, Laila and Koutroulis, Aristeidis and Lewis, Kirsty and Morfopoulos, Catherine and Papadimitriou, Lamprini and Richardson, Katy J and Tsanis, Ioannis and Wyser, Klaus},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2016.0452},
isbn = {1364-503X},
issn = {1364-503X},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
keywords = {1.5°C,2°C,Global climate impacts,Paris Agreement,Paris agreement,Terrestrial ecosystems,Water resources,global climate impacts,terrestrial ecosystems,water resources},
month = {may},
number = {2119},
pages = {20160452},
pmid = {29610383},
publisher = {The Royal Society},
title = {{Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model}},
url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/lookup/doi/10.1098/rsta.2016.0452},
volume = {376},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Betts2015a,
abstract = {Abstract. A new generation of an Earth system model now includes a number of land-surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run. This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from an impacts perspective – specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and water resources – for four different scenarios following the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013, 2014). Over the 21st century, simulated changes in global and continental-scale terrestrial ecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs, even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st century ranges from 2 °C in the lowest scenario to 5.5° in the highest. A warming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaf trees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in a poleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in all scenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenarios of greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise at regional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic land cover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warming results in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a large expansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increase across extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of CO2 and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing with mean temperature at the end of the 21st century at the global scale and in North America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, the relationship with climate warming and CO2 rise is less clear, probably as a result of land cover change exerting a dominant effect in those regions.},
author = {Betts, R A and Golding, N and Gonzalez, P and Gornall, J and Kahana, R and Kay, G and Mitchell, L and Wiltshire, A},
doi = {10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015},
issn = {1726-4189},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {1317--1338},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways}},
url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/12/1317/2015/},
volume = {12},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Betzold2015,
abstract = {Small island developing states (SIDS) are among the first and worst affected by climate change. SIDS are thus also among the first to adapt, and as ‘early adaptors' can provide key lessons for adaptation efforts elsewhere. This article reviews the growing literature on climate change, adaptation and small island states. t first discusses migration – which increasingly is seen as part of adaptation rather than a failure to adapt. Mobility has long been part of island life, and remittances can for example fund adaptation measures back home. Yet, adaptationI in situ is not as forthcoming as would be necessary. The article identifies different barriers to effective adaptation, and discusses them under three distinct but interrelated categories: perceptions and awareness, institutions, and (lack of) resources. For effective, sustainable and successful adaptation, we need to overcome these barriers, and in particular provide information and resources to the local level. With appropriate information and resources, island communities can take and implement informed decisions and successfully adapt to a changing climate – as they have adjusted to social and environmental changes in the past.},
author = {Betzold, Carola},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1408-0},
isbn = {0165-0009},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {481--489},
pmid = {111160504},
title = {{Adapting to climate change in small island developing states}},
volume = {133},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bevacqua2019,
abstract = {In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future.},
author = {Bevacqua, E. and Maraun, D. and Vousdoukas, M. I. and Voukouvalas, E. and Vrac, M. and Mentaschi, L. and Widmann, M.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaw5531},
issn = {23752548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {eaaw5531},
title = {{Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change}},
volume = {5},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bezerra2019,
abstract = {The S{\~{a}}o Francisco River is strategically important due to its hydroelectric potential and for bringing the largest water body of Brazilian Semiarid region, supplying water for irrigation, urban, and industrial activities. Thereby, for the purpose of characterizing changes on the precipitation patterns over S{\~{a}}o Francisco River basin, 11 extremes precipitation indices as defined by the joint WMO/CCI/ETCCDMI/CLIVAR project were calculated using daily observation from the 59 rain gauges during 1947–2012 period. The extreme climatic indices were calculated with the RClimDex software, which performs an exhaustive data quality control, intending to identify spurious errors and dataset inconsistencies. Weak and significant regional changes were observed in both CDD and SDII indices. Most precipitation extremes indices decreased but without statistical significance. The spatial analysis of indices did not show clearly regional changes due to the complexity of hydrometeorology of the region. In some cases, two rainfall stations exhibited opposite trends with the same significance level although they are separated by a few kilometers. This has occurred more frequently in Lower-Middle S{\~{a}}o Francisco, probably associated with intense land cover change over the last decades in this region.},
author = {Bezerra, Bergson G. and Silva, Lindenberg L. and {Santos e Silva}, Claudio M. and de Carvalho, Gilvani Gomes},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2396-6},
isbn = {0070401823966},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {565--576},
title = {{Changes of precipitation extremes indices in S{\~{a}}o Francisco River Basin, Brazil from 1947 to 2012}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-018-2396-6},
volume = {135},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bhardwaj2018,
abstract = {We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.},
author = {Bhardwaj, Amit and Misra, Vasubandhu and Mishra, Akhilesh and Wootten, Adrienne and Boyles, Ryan and Bowden, J. H. and Terando, Adam J.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2130-x},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {1-2},
pages = {133--147},
publisher = {Climatic Change},
title = {{Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model}},
volume = {147},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bhatia2019,
abstract = {Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.},
author = {Bhatia, Kieran T. and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Knutson, Thomas R. and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Kossin, James and Dixon, Keith W. and Whitlock, Carolyn E.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Attribution,Climate and Earth system modelling},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {635},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bhattachan2018,
abstract = {The exposure of freshwater-dependent coastal ecosystems to saltwater is a present-day impact of climate and land-use changes in many coastal regions, with the potential to harm freshwater and terrestrial biota, alter biogeochemical cycles and reduce agricultural yields. Land-use activities associated with artificial drainage infrastructure (canals, ditches, and drains) could exacerbate saltwater exposure. However, studies assessing the effects of artificial drainage on the vulnerability of coastal landscapes to saltwater exposure are lacking. We examined the extent to which artificial drainage infrastructure has altered the potential for saltwater intrusion in the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina. Regional spatial analyses demonstrate that artificial drainages not only lower the overall elevation in coastal landscapes, but they also alter the routing and concentration of hydrological flows. Together, these factors have the potential to increase the total proportion of the landscape vulnerable to saltwater intrusion, not only in areas adjacent to drainage infrastructure but also in places where no artificial drainages exist due to large scale effects of flow rerouting. Among all land cover types in eastern North Carolina, wetlands are most vulnerable to saltwater exposure. Droughts and coastal storms associated with climate change potentially exacerbate vulnerability to saltwater facilitated by artificial drainage.},
author = {Bhattachan, Abinash and Emanuel, Ryan E. and Ard{\'{o}}n, Marcelo and Bernhardt, Emily S. and Anderson, Steven M. and Stillwagon, Matthew G. and Ury, Emily A. and BenDor, Todd K. and Wright, Justin P.},
doi = {10.1525/elementa.316},
editor = {Zak, Donald R. and Olden, Julian D.},
issn = {2325-1026},
journal = {Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene},
keywords = {Drought,Land use change,Saltwater intrusion,Sea-level rise,Wetlands},
month = {jan},
number = {62},
title = {{Evaluating the effects of land-use change and future climate change on vulnerability of coastal landscapes to saltwater intrusion}},
url = {https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article/doi/10.1525/elementa.316/112833/Evaluating-the-effects-of-landuse-change-and},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2012GL051685,
abstract = {Over the past 30 years, observations indicate a decline of about −0.3 m/s in the northern mid-latitudes land surface wind speed. The picture is less conclusive for the Southern Hemisphere and over the oceans. Such a stilling can affect surface evaporation and climate feedback processes, and may impact technical applications such as wind power. Using an atmospheric global climate model, we perform sensitivity experiments for the period 1870–2005 to assess the role of changing roughness length, aerosol emissions, sea surface temperature, and greenhouse gas concentrations in surface wind speed changes. The wind speed trends simulated by the model generally underestimate the observed trends (land and ocean). Over land, the model can reproduce the observed stilling by increasing the roughness length by a factor of 1.2 to 4.9, depending on region. The other forcings examined can also decrease the 10 m wind speeds (up to 15{\%} of observed values in Europe), particularly those related to increasing aerosol emissions (up to −0.2 m/s in India). Compared to observations, the simulated impact of climate forcings on global wind speeds over land and ocean is however small and not always significant.},
author = {Bichet, A and Wild, M and Folini, D and Sch{\"{a}}r, C},
doi = {10.1029/2012GL051685},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {GCM,aerosols,roughness length,wind stilling},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {L11701},
title = {{Causes for decadal variations of wind speed over land: Sensitivity studies with a global climate model}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2012GL051685 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012GL051685},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Bigg2018,
author = {Bigg, Grant R and Cropper, T E and O'Neill, Clare K and Arnold, Alex K and Fleming, Andrew H and Marsh, R and Ivchenko, V and Fournier, Nicolas and Osborne, Mike and Stephens, Robin},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-018-3243-x},
issn = {0921-030X},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {1113--1136},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{A model for assessing iceberg hazard}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-018-3243-x},
volume = {92},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bilbao2015,
author = {Bilbao, Roberto A F and Gregory, Jonathan M and Bouttes, Nathaelle},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {9},
pages = {2647--2666},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs}},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bilskie2016,
author = {Bilskie, Matthew V. and Hagen, S. C. and Alizad, K. and Medeiros, S. C. and Passeri, D. L. and Needham, H. F. and Cox, A.},
doi = {10.1002/2015EF000347},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {Climate Change,Geomorphology,Hurricane,Land Use Land Cover,Sea Level Rise,Storm Surge},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {177--193},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015EF000347},
volume = {4},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Bindoff2019,
author = {Bindoff, N. and Cheung, W.W.L. and Kairo, J.G. and Aristegui, J. and Guinder, V.A. and Hallberg, R. and Hilmi, N. and Jiao, N. and Karim, M.S. and Levin, L. and O'Donoghue, S. and {Purca Cuicapusa}, S.R. and Rinkevich, B. and Suga, T. and Tagliabue, A. and Williamson, P.},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {447--588},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-5},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bintanja2014,
author = {Bintanja, R. and Severijns, C. and Haarsma, R. and Hazeleger, W.},
doi = {10.1002/2013JD020848},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {7160--7178},
title = {{The future of Antarctica's surface winds simulated by a high-resolution global climate model: 2. Drivers of 21st century changes}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013JD020848},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Bintanja2017b,
abstract = {Climate models project a strong increase in Arctic precipitation over the coming century, which has been attributed primarily to enhanced surface evaporation associated with sea-ice retreat. Since the Arctic is still quite cold, especially in winter, it is often (implicitly) assumed that the additional precipitation will fall mostly as snow. However, little is known about future changes in the distributions of rainfall and snowfall in the Arctic. Here we use 37 state-of-the-art climate models in standardized twenty-first-century (2006-2100) simulations to show a decrease in average annual Arctic snowfall (70°-90° N), despite the strong precipitation increase. Rain is projected to become the dominant form of precipitation in the Arctic region (2091-2100), as atmospheric warming causes a greater fraction of snowfall to melt before it reaches the surface, in particular over the North Atlantic and the Barents Sea. The reduction in Arctic snowfall is most pronounced during summer and autumn when temperatures are close to the melting point, but also winter rainfall is found to intensify considerably. Projected (seasonal) trends in rainfall and snowfall will heavily impact Arctic hydrology (for example, river discharge, permafrost melt), climatology (for example, snow, sea-ice albedo and melt) and ecology (for example, water and food availability).},
author = {Bintanja, R. and Andry, O.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3240},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {263--267},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Towards a rain-dominated Arctic}},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Biribo2013,
abstract = {Low-lying reef islands on atolls appear to be threatened by impacts of observed and anticipated sea-level rise. This study examines changes in shoreline position on the majority of reef islands on Tarawa Atoll, the capital of Kiribati. It investigates short-term reef-island area and shoreline change over 30 years determined by comparing 1968 and 1998 aerial photography using geographical information systems. Reef islands have substantially increased in size, gaining about 450 ha, driven largely by reclamations on urban South Tarawa, accounting for 360 ha ({\~{}}80 {\%} of the net change). Widespread erosion and high average accretion rates appear to be related to disjointed reclamations. In rural North Tarawa, most reef islands show stability, with localised changes in areas such as embayments, sand spits and beaches adjacent to, or facing, inter-island channels. Shoreline changes in North Tarawa are largely influenced by natural factors, whereas those in South Tarawa are predominantly affected by human factors and seasonal variability associated with El Ni{\~{n}}o—Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, serious concerns are raised for the future of South Tarawa reef islands, as evidence shows that widespread erosion along the ocean and lagoon shorelines is primarily due to human activities and further encroachment onto the active beach will disrupt longshore sediment transport, increasing erosion and susceptibility of the reef islands to anticipated sea-level rise. Appropriate adaptation measures, such as incorporating coastal processes and seasonal variability associated with ENSO when designing coastal structures and developing appropriate management plans, are required, including prohibiting beach mining practices near settlements.},
author = {Biribo, Naomi and Woodroffe, Colin D.},
doi = {10.1007/s11625-013-0210-z},
journal = {Sustainability Science},
number = {3},
pages = {345--362},
title = {{Historical area and shoreline change of reef islands around Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati}},
volume = {8},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Birkmann2014a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Birkmann, J. and Licker, R. and Oppenheimer, M. and Campos, M. and Warren, R. and Luber, G. and O'Neill, B.C. and Takahashi, K.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415379.005},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Dokken, D.J. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Bilir, T. E. and Chatterjee, M and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058071},
pages = {113--121},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Cross-chapter box on a selection of the hazards, key vulnerabilities, key risks, and emergent risks identified in the WGII contribution to the fifth assessment report}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@misc{Bisbis2018,
abstract = {This paper reviews climate change impacts on the production, physiology, yield, and product quality of vegetables affected by shifting CO 2 and O 3 concentrations, precipitation and temperature conditions, as well as subjected to extreme weather events. The emphasis is on the temperate cool climate of Western Europe. Physiological processes such as respiration and photosynthesis can acclimate to increasing atmospheric CO 2 and temperatures. The effect of increased CO 2 on vegetables is mostly beneficial for production, but may alter internal product quality, or result in photosynthetic down-regulation. Heat stress reduces fruit set of fruiting vegetables, and speeds up development of determinate vegetables, shortening their time for photoassimilation. In both cases, yield losses result with an impaired product quality, thereby increasing production waste. A longer growing season, arising from warmer temperatures, allows a greater number of plantings to be cultivated, contributing to greater annual yields. However, some vegetables need a period of cold accumulation to produce a harvest. Despite the increasing potential for winter cultivation in the future, perennials like asparagus might increasingly suffer from a lack of winter chilling. In cauliflower, higher temperatures will likely cause insufficient vernalization delaying head induction. This review may contribute in improving the adaptation strategies of vegetable production to climate change for a sustainable horticulture due to an effective risk management by meeting the problems of possible waste increase; breeding of new heat, drought and pest tolerant cultivars; secure water resources; increase the use of renewable energy sources; stimulating new ideas in innovative technologies; development of new approaches to secure stable yields and improve the product quality of vegetables for a cleaner production. {\textcopyright} Elsevier. All rights.},
author = {Bisbis, Mehdi Benyoussef and Gruda, Nazim and Blanke, Michael},
booktitle = {Journal of Cleaner Production},
doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.09.224},
file = {::},
issn = {09596526},
keywords = {Adaptation strategies to climate change,CO 2,Climatic change,EU standards,External and internal quality,Ozone,Physiological processes,Renewable energy sources,Sustainable vegetable production,Temperature,Waste reduction,Water resources},
month = {jan},
pages = {1602--1620},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Potential impacts of climate change on vegetable production and product quality – A review}},
volume = {170},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bisht2019,
author = {Bisht, Deepak Singh and Sridhar, Venkataramana and Mishra, Ashok and Chatterjee, Chandranath and Raghuwanshi, N S},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5922},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
number = {4},
pages = {1889--1911},
title = {{Drought characterization over India under projected climate scenario}},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Biskaborn2019,
abstract = {Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.},
author = {Biskaborn, Boris K. and Smith, Sharon L. and Noetzli, Jeannette and Matthes, Heidrun and Vieira, Gon{\c{c}}alo and Streletskiy, Dmitry A. and Schoeneich, Philippe and Romanovsky, Vladimir E. and Lewkowicz, Antoni G. and Abramov, Andrey and Allard, Michel and Boike, Julia and Cable, William L. and Christiansen, Hanne H. and Delaloye, Reynald and Diekmann, Bernhard and Drozdov, Dmitry and Etzelm{\"{u}}ller, Bernd and Grosse, Guido and Guglielmin, Mauro and Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas and Isaksen, Ketil and Ishikawa, Mamoru and Johansson, Margareta and Johannsson, Halldor and Joo, Anseok and Kaverin, Dmitry and Kholodov, Alexander and Konstantinov, Pavel and Kr{\"{o}}ger, Tim and Lambiel, Christophe and Lanckman, Jean-Pierre and Luo, Dongliang and Malkova, Galina and Meiklejohn, Ian and Moskalenko, Natalia and Oliva, Marc and Phillips, Marcia and Ramos, Miguel and Sannel, A. Britta K. and Sergeev, Dmitrii and Seybold, Cathy and Skryabin, Pavel and Vasiliev, Alexander and Wu, Qingbai and Yoshikawa, Kenji and Zheleznyak, Mikhail and Lantuit, Hugues},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Environmental health,Environmental impact},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {264},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Permafrost is warming at a global scale}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08240-4},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@misc{Bloschl2019,
abstract = {Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results—arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far—suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.},
author = {Bl{\"{o}}schl, G{\"{u}}nter and Hall, Julia and Viglione, Alberto and Perdig{\~{a}}o, Rui A.P. and Parajka, Juraj and Merz, Bruno and Lun, David and Arheimer, Berit and Aronica, Giuseppe T. and Bilibashi, Ardian and Boh{\'{a}}{\v{c}}, Miloň and Bonacci, Ognjen and Borga, Marco and {\v{C}}anjevac, Ivan and Castellarin, Attilio and Chirico, Giovanni B. and Claps, Pierluigi and Frolova, Natalia and Ganora, Daniele and Gorbachova, Liudmyla and G{\"{u}}l, Ali and Hannaford, Jamie and Harrigan, Shaun and Kireeva, Maria and Kiss, Andrea and Kjeldsen, Thomas R. and Kohnov{\'{a}}, Silvia and Koskela, Jarkko J. and Ledvinka, Ondrej and Macdonald, Neil and Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria and Mediero, Luis and Merz, Ralf and Molnar, Peter and Montanari, Alberto and Murphy, Conor and Osuch, Marzena and Ovcharuk, Valeryia and Radevski, Ivan and Salinas, Jos{\'{e}} L. and Sauquet, Eric and {\v{S}}raj, Mojca and Szolgay, Jan and Volpi, Elena and Wilson, Donna and Zaimi, Klodian and {\v{Z}}ivkovi{\'{c}}, Nenad},
booktitle = {Nature},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6},
issn = {14764687},
month = {sep},
number = {7772},
pages = {108--111},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods}},
volume = {573},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Blackport2019a,
author = {Blackport, Russell and Screen, James A and van der Wiel, Karin and Bintanja, Richard},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0551-4},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {sep},
pages = {697--704},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0551-4},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Blanford2013,
author = {Blanford, J I and Blanford, S and Crane, R G and Mann, M E and Paaijmans, K P and Schreiber, K V and Thomas, M B},
doi = {10.1038/srep01300},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {feb},
pages = {1300},
publisher = {The Author(s)},
title = {{Implications of temperature variation for malaria parasite development across Africa}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/srep01300 http://10.0.4.14/srep01300 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep01300{\#}supplementary-information},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Boe2016a,
author = {Bo{\'{e}}, J.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL069394},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {7678--7685},
title = {{Modulation of the summer hydrological cycle evolution over western Europe by anthropogenic aerosols and soil–atmosphere interactions}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL069394},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Boe2020,
abstract = {We assess the differences of future climate changes over Europe in summer as projected by state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCM, from the EURO-Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) and by their forcing global climate models (GCM, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and study the associated physical mechanisms. We show that important discrepancies at large-scales exist between global and regional projections. The RCMs project at the end of the 21st century over a large area of Europe a summer warming 1.5–2 K colder, and a much smaller decrease of precipitation of 5{\%}, versus 20{\%} in their driving GCMs. The RCMs generally simulate a much smaller increase in shortwave radiation at surface, which directly impacts surface temperature. In addition to differences in cloud cover changes, the absence of time-varying anthropogenic aerosols in most regional simulations plays a major role in the differences of solar radiation changes. We confirm this result with twin regional simulations with and without time-varying anthropogenic aerosols. Additionally, the RCMs simulate larger increases in evapotranspiration over the Mediterranean sea and larger increases/smaller decreases over land, which contribute to smaller changes in relative humidity, with likely impacts on clouds and precipitation changes. Several potential causes of these differences in evapotranspiration changes are discussed. Overall, this work suggests that the current EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble does not capture the upper part of the climate change uncertainty range, with important implications for impact studies and the adaptation policies that they inform.},
author = {Bo{\'{e}}, Julien and Somot, Samuel and Corre, Lola and Nabat, Pierre},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Anthropogenic aerosols,Climate change,Europe,Evapotranspiration,Regional climate},
month = {mar},
number = {5-6},
pages = {2981--3002},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{ISI:000356821900017,
abstract = {The vulnerability of Amazonian rainforest, and the ecological services it provides, depends on an adequate supply of dry-season water, either as precipitation or stored soil moisture. How the rain-bearing South American monsoon will evolve across the twenty-first century is thus a question of major interest. Extensive savanization, with its loss of forest carbon stock and uptake capacity, is an extreme although very uncertain scenario(1-6). We show that the contrasting rainfall projections simulated for Amazonia by 36 global climate models (GCMs) can be reproduced with empirical precipitation models, calibrated with historical GCM data as functions of the large-scale circulation. A set of these simple models was therefore calibrated with observations and used to constrain the GCM simulations. In agreement with the current hydrologic trends(7,8), the resulting projection towards the end of the twenty-first century is for a strengthening of the monsoon seasonal cycle, and a dry-season lengthening in southern Amazonia. With this approach, the increase in the area subjected to lengthy-savannah-prone-dry seasons is substantially larger than the GCM-simulated one. Our results confirm the dominant picture shown by the state-of-the-art GCMs, but suggest that the model democracy view of these impacts can be significantly underestimated.},
author = {Boisier, Juan P and Ciais, Philippe and Ducharne, Agn{\`{e}}s and Guimberteau, Matthieu},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2658},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {656--660},
title = {{Projected strengthening of Amazonian dry season by constrained climate model simulations}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2658},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Boisier2018,
abstract = {The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend's seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures.},
author = {Boisier, Juan P. and Alvarez-Garreton, Camila and Cordero, Ra{\'{u}}l R. and Damiani, Alessandro and Gallardo, Laura and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} D. and Lambert, Fabrice and Ramallo, Cinthya and Rojas, Maisa and Rondanelli, Roberto},
doi = {10.1525/elementa.328},
editor = {Chadwick, Oliver},
issn = {2325-1026},
journal = {Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene},
keywords = {Chile,Climate change,Drought,Drying trends,Greenhouse gas and ozone depletion,Southern annular mode},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {74},
title = {{Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations}},
url = {https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.328/},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bojinski2014,
author = {Bojinski, Stephan and Verstraete, Michel and Peterson, Thomas C. and Richter, Carolin and Simmons, Adrian and Zemp, Michael},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00047.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1431--1443},
title = {{The Concept of Essential Climate Variables in Support of Climate Research, Applications, and Policy}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00047.1},
volume = {95},
year = {2014}
}
@incollection{Bolch2019,
abstract = {The cryosphere is defined by the presence of frozen water in its many forms: glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets, snow, permafrost, and river and lake ice. In the extended Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, including the Pamirs, Tien Shan and Alatua, the cryosphere is a key freshwater resource, playing a vital and significant role in local and regional hydrology and ecology. Industry, agriculture, and hydroelectric power generation rely on timely and sufficient delivery of water in major river systems; changes in the cryospheric system may thus pose challenges for disaster risk reduction in the extended HKH region.},
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Bolch, Tobias and Shea, Joseph M and Liu, Shiyin and Azam, Farooq M and Gao, Yang and Gruber, Stephan and Immerzeel, Walter W and Kulkarni, Anil and Li, Huilin and Tahir, Adnan A and Zhang, Guoqing and Zhang, Yinsheng},
booktitle = {The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_7},
editor = {Wester, Philippus and Mishra, Arabinda and Mukherji, Aditi and Shrestha, Arun Bhakta},
isbn = {978-3-319-92288-1},
pages = {209--255},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Status and Change of the Cryosphere in the Extended Hindu Kush Himalaya Region}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1{\_}7},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{AustralianBureauofMeteorologyBoM2014,
abstract = {This report documents the latest scientific understanding of large-scale climate processes, observations, extremes and projections in the western tropical Pacific. This report builds on the research published in Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research, Volumes 1 {\&} 2 (2011) and provides updated individual country reports for 14 Pacific Island Countries and Timor-Leste featuring the latest CMIP5-based global climate model outputs. The full report and chapter downloads are provided as WCAG2 compliant accessible PDF documents.},
address = {Melbourne, Australia},
author = {BOM and CSIRO},
isbn = {978-1-4863-0289-5},
pages = {372},
publisher = {Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)},
series = {Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Technical Report},
title = {{Climate Variability, Extremes and Change in the Western Tropical Pacific: New Science and Updated Country Reports}},
url = {https://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/publications/reports/climate-variability-extremes-and-change-in-the-western-tropical-pacific-2014/},
year = {2014}
}
@techreport{AustralianBureauofMeteorology2011,
author = {BOM and CSIRO},
isbn = {9781921826740},
pages = {257},
publisher = {Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)},
title = {{Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research. Volume 1: Regional Overview. Volume 2: Country Reports}},
url = {https://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/publications/reports/report-climate-change-in-the-pacific-scientific-assessment-and-new-research/},
year = {2011}
}
@article{BondeSousa2018,
abstract = {Projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) point to a global mean sea level rise (SLR) of close to 1 m by 2100 for a worst-case scenario. This will have a significant impact on coastal areas worldwide, primarily by modifying the shoreline position and coastal morphology, but also by influencing the coastal economy and livelihoods. Generally, it is assumed that sandy barriers will adapt to SLR through shoreline retreat and barrier inland migration. However, for embayed beaches backed by cliffs and/or underlined by shore platforms, constraints to inland migration will compromise such morphological response, with SLR-induced shoreline retreat leading to reductions in beach width and area. This will have impacts on beach use and carrying capacity. Aiming to analyse the morphological changes induced by SLR at cliff-backed platform beaches, this study explores simple mathematical models to quantify beach morphological change. 2D cross-shore profiles, representing the morphology of the beach and the underlying shore platform, were analysed using two geometric models of beach profile response. The model of Taborda and Ribeiro (2015) was applied for profiles with berm, while a new model is proposed for profiles without berm. The models assume that for profiles with berm there is both retreat and rise of the berm, while for profiles without berm the beach face becomes steeper and the sub-aerial beach narrower in response to SLR. Using a high-resolution topo-bathymetric LiDAR dataset, 94 cross-shore profiles from 32 beaches in southern Portugal were analysed. Their evolution was modelled considering the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, which projects a SLR between 0.5 m and 1 m by 2100. From the 48 profiles with berm, 15 will experience complete berm erosion by 2100 for a 1 m SLR worst case scenario. The modelled average berm/beach width reduction is 7.9/5.8 m and 9.5/9.6 m for a SLR of 0.5 m and 1 m, respectively. A total of 26 beaches will become steeper and may be submerged if a threshold equilibrium beach slope is exceeded. Changes to the beach carrying capacity due to reduction in beach area will impact the local and regional economy, since the southern coast of Portugal is strongly influenced by beach tourism. The modelled changes to beach area result in a maximum potential economic loss ranging between EUR 215,000 and EUR 561,000 per day during peak summer months if no mitigation measures are considered. Beach nourishment was found to be a cost-effective measure to prevent the modelled reduction in beach area and mitigate the associated economic impacts.},
author = {{Bon de Sousa}, L. and Loureiro, C. and Ferreira, O.},
doi = {10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.07.023},
issn = {01436228},
journal = {Applied Geography},
keywords = {Beach carrying capacity,Beach nourishment,Beach profile,Embayed beaches,Morphological evolution,Sea level rise},
month = {oct},
pages = {31--43},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Morphological and economic impacts of rising sea levels on cliff-backed platform beaches in southern Portugal}},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Bonsal2019,
abstract = {Chapter 6: Changes in Freshwater Availability Across Canada of Canada's Changing Climate Report. This report is about how and why Canada's climate has changed and what changes are projected for the future. Led by Environment and Climate Change Canada, it is the first report to be released as part of Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. It documents changes across Canada in temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, permafrost, freshwater availability, and in Canada's three oceans.},
address = {Ottawa, ON, Canada},
author = {Bonsal, Barrie R. and Peters, Daniel L and Seglenieks, Frank and Rivera, Alfonso and Berg, Aaron},
booktitle = {Canada's Changing Climate Report},
editor = {Bush, E. and Lemmen, D.S},
keywords = {Canada,Climate change,freshwater,global warming,ice,oceans,permafrost,precipitation,snow,temperature},
pages = {261--342},
publisher = {Government of Canada},
title = {{Changes in freshwater availability across Canada, Chapter 6}},
url = {https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/Climate-change/pdf/CCCR-Chapter6-ChangesInFreshwaterAvailabilityAcrossCanada.pdf},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Borges2018,
abstract = {This study investigates trends and the effects of the interannual and intraseasonal climate variability on the extreme weather of Brazil's capital city Distrito Federal (DF). This area is highly vulnerable to climate variability, having suffered from droughts and floods that affected the drinking water supply and agriculture. We perform trend analysis of 12 rainfall-related indices from 13 ground observation stations and assess the influence of El Ni{\~{n}}o southern oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on rainfall totals and extreme indices. The trend analysis confirms: (a) the increase of the dry spells length and (b) the anticipation of the onset of dry periods at regional level. That is also true when considering dry spells in the rainy season, a hazard known in the agriculture sector as “ver{\^{a}}nico.” On the other hand, extreme wet conditions became less severe in the last decades. Supressed monthly rainfall conditions, and some wet indices, are associated with La Ni{\~{n}}a episodes. The MJO's intraseasonal variability seems to play a substantial role in DF's climate. MJO phases 3, 7 and 8 are associated to enhanced rainfall conditions; whereas rainfall is supressed during phase 5. Moreover, dry spells during the rainy season, or “ver{\^{a}}nico,” often coincide with MJO phase 5. When combined with ENSO, the basic response of rainfall to MJO activity changes substantially showing statistically significant influence of El Ni{\~{n}}o on phases 2 and 8; while La Ni{\~{n}}a on phases 4, 6 and 7. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the ongoing changes in extreme climate as well as the influence of natural climate variability on local's climate, information that can be used in the management of water resources and land use of DF.},
author = {Borges, Pablo de Amorim and Bernhofer, Christian and Rodrigues, Regina},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5686},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {oct},
number = {12},
pages = {4550--4567},
title = {{Extreme rainfall indices in Distrito Federal, Brazil: Trends and links with El Ni{\~{n}}o southern oscillation and Madden-Julian oscillation}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5686},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{BorgesdeAmorim2019,
abstract = {The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has put a lot of efforts to describe uncertainties and to judge the confidence level of its major conclusions. Despite a guidance to communicate uncertainty, the assignment of confidence is not sufficiently clear and, thus, hard to be reproduced by the extern community. By conducting a synthesis assessment about the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian water resources, we identified an opportunity to illustrate the characterization of evidence as adopted in IPCC reports. We propose a method to describe the evidence from model outputs wherein the quality and amount of studies, as well as the consistency among their conclusions, are subject of a transparent rating procedure. In summary, the more comprehensive the study in sampling uncertainties, the higher its quality. Likewise, the amount and consistency among conclusions is assigned in a systematic way. The method is applied for synthesizing a collection of 42 peer-reviewed articles. It reveals important aspects about the evidence of the potential impacts of climate change in the Brazilian water resources, such as changes into a drier hydrological regime. However, the use of multi-model ensemble, the evaluation of models, and the observational data is limited. The proposed method enables consistent communication of the degree of evidence in a transparent, traceable, and comprehensive fashion. The method can be used as a tool to support experts on their judgment. The approach is reproducible and can guide synthesis work not only in Brazil but anywhere else.},
author = {{Borges de Amorim}, Pablo and Chaffe, Pedro B.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02430-9},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {37--57},
title = {{Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-019-02430-9},
volume = {155},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Botai2017,
abstract = {Drought is a creeping phenomenon whose effects evolve with time, yet the start and end is often only clear in the hindsight. The present study assessed drought conditions using two categories of drought indicators computed from precipitation data sets measured by weather stations across the Western Cape Province, South Africa for the period 1985 to 2016. The first category was the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) accumulated over 3-, 6- and 12-months (hereafter of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 respectively). The second category consists of the four Drought Monitoring Indicators (DMI) i.e., Drought Duration (DD), Severity (DS), Intensity (DI) and Frequency (DF). Firstly, analysis of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 illustrate that between 1985 and 2016, the Western Cape Province experienced recurrent mild drought conditions. This suggests that the drought conditions experienced during 2015/2016 hydrological year (hereafter current) in the Western Cape Province is a manifestation of past drought conditions. Secondly, analysis of trends in DMI series depict a noticeable spatial-temporal dependence wherein the southern and western regions experienced more severe droughts compared to the eastern and northern regions of the Western Cape Province. Results also show that the DMI trends exhibit up to {\~{}}8{\%} variability over the past decade. Overall, the current drought conditions in the Western Cape Province continues to adversely affect agricultural production while the water reservoirs are at below 30{\%} capacity implying that the socio-economic impacts of these droughts will continue to reverberate for many months to come. Though the on-going drought conditions in the Western Cape Province is a regular part of nature's cycle, analysis of historical drought characteristics based on drought indicators is an important first step towards placing the current drought conditions into perspective, and contribute to triggering action and response thereof. All these lay the foundation for drought monitoring and contribute towards the development of drought early warning.},
author = {Botai, Christina and Botai, Joel and de Wit, Jaco and Ncongwane, Katlego and Adeola, Abiodun},
doi = {10.3390/w9110876},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {drought,drought monitoring indicators,standardized precipitation index},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {876},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Drought Characteristics over the Western Cape Province, South Africa}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/11/876},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bowden2021,
abstract = {The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the regional spectral model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non‐Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2‐km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Two 20‐year time slices were downscaled for historical (1986–2005) and future (2041–2060) periods following RCP8.5. Projected changes to mean and extreme temperature and precipitation were quantified for Holdridge life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The evaluation reveals a persistent cold bias for all islands in the U.S. Caribbean, a dry bias across Puerto Rico, and a wet bias on the windward side of mountains within the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite these biases, model simulations show a robust drying pattern for all islands that is generally larger for Puerto Rico (25{\%} annual rainfall reduction for some life zones) than the U.S. Virgin Islands (12{\%} island average). The largest precipitation reductions are found during the more convectively active afternoon and evening hours. Within Puerto Rico, the model uncertainty increases for the wetter life zones, especially for precipitation. Across the life zones, both models project unprecedented maximum and minimum temperatures that may exceed 200 days annually above the historical baseline with only small changes to the frequency of extreme rainfall. By contrast, in the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is no consensus on the location of the largest drying relative to the windward and leeward side of the islands. However, the models project the largest increases in maximum temperature on the southern side of St. Croix and in higher elevations of St. Thomas and St. John.},
author = {Bowden, Jared H. and Terando, Adam J. and Misra, Vasu and Wooten, Adrienne and Bhardwaj, Amit and Boyles, Ryan and Gould, William and Collazo, Jaime A. and Spero, Tanya L.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6810},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
number = {2},
pages = {1305--1327},
title = {{High-resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands}},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Box2019a,
abstract = {Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971-2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near-coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no.},
author = {Box, Jason E. and Colgan, William T. and Christensen, Torben R{\o}jle and Schmidt, Niels Martin and Lund, Magnus and Parmentier, Frans-Jan W and Brown, Ross and Bhatt, Uma S. and Euskirchen, Eug{\'{e}}nie S. and Romanovsky, Vladimir E. and Walsh, John E. and Overland, James E. and Wang, Muyin and Corell, Robert W. and Meier, Walter N. and Wouters, Bert and Mernild, Sebastian and M{\aa}rd, Johanna and Pawlak, Janet and Olsen, Morten Skovg{\aa}rd},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {AMAP,Arctic climate change,observational records},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {045010},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Bozkurt2018c,
abstract = {This study examines the projections of hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile (∼ 30–40° S) under a low and high emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). A gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset based on observations is used to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale hydrological model in the region of interest. Historical and future simulations from 19 climate models participating in CMIP5 have been adjusted with the observational dataset and then used to make hydrological projections. By the end of the century, there is a large difference between the scenarios, with projected warming of ∼ + 1.2 °C (RCP2.6), ∼ + 3.5 °C (RCP8.5) and drying of ∼ − 3{\%} (RCP2.6), ∼ − 30{\%} (RCP8.5). Following the strong drying and warming projected in this region under the RCP8.5 scenario, the VIC model simulates decreases in annual runoff of about 40{\%} by the end of the century. Such strong regional effect of climate change may have large implications for the water resources of this region. Even under the low emission scenario, the Andes snowpack is projected to decrease by 35–45{\%} by mid-century. In more snowmelt-dominated areas, the projected hydrological changes under RCP8.5 go together with more loss in the snowpack (75–85{\%}) and a temporal shift in the center timing of runoff to earlier dates (up to 5 weeks by the end of the century). The severity and frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events are also projected to increase in the future. The occurrence of extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015), increases from one to up to five events per 100 years under RCP8.5. Concurrently, probability density function of 3-day peak runoff indicates an increase in the frequency of flood events. The estimated return periods of 3-day peak runoff events depict more drastic changes and increase in the flood risk as higher recurrence intervals are considered by mid-century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, and by the end of the century under RCP8.5.},
author = {Bozkurt, Deniz and Rojas, Maisa and Boisier, Juan Pablo and Valdivieso, Jon{\'{a}}s},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2246-7},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {oct},
number = {3-4},
pages = {131--147},
title = {{Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2246-7},
volume = {150},
year = {2018}
}
@article{nhess-18-2047-2018,
author = {Br{\"{o}}nnimann, S and Rajczak, J and Fischer, E M and Raible, C C and Rohrer, M and Sch{\"{a}}r, C},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
number = {7},
pages = {2047--2056},
title = {{Changing seasonality of moderate and extreme precipitation events in the Alps}},
url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/18/2047/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Braganca2016,
abstract = {Objetivou-se com este trabalho definir, por meio do zoneamento agroclimatol{\'{o}}gico atual e para os pr{\'{o}}ximos 100 anos, {\'{a}}reas com diferentes aptid{\~{o}}es clim{\'{a}}ticas para a cultura do caf{\'{e}} ar{\'{a}}bica (Coffea arabica L.), no estado do Esp{\'{i}}rito Santo. Para isso, foram utilizados dados de temperatura m{\'{e}}dia do ar e precipita{\c{c}}{\~{a}}o pluviom{\'{e}}trica, em escala mensal e anual, de s{\'{e}}ries hist{\'{o}}ricas representativas do per{\'{i}}odo de 1976 a 2006. Foi necess{\'{a}}rio simular o efeito do incremento de temperatura de +1{\textordmasculine}C, +2{\textordmasculine}C, +3{\textordmasculine}C, +4{\textordmasculine}C e +5{\textordmasculine}C, por meio da m{\'{e}}dia obtida do resultado de seis modelos, a saber: GFDL-R30 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, R-30 resolution model), CCSR/NIES (Center for Climate Research Studies Model), CSIROMk2 (Common wealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization GCM mark 2), CGCM2 (Canadian Global Coupled Model version 2), ECHAM4 (European Centre Hamburg Model version 4) e HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3). Os resultados encontrados demonstraram que, atualmente, as {\'{a}}reas completamente aptas representam 19,49{\%}, e com acr{\'{e}}scimo de 5°C diminuir{\'{a}} para 0,02{\%}, enquanto as {\'{a}}reas completamente inaptas passar{\~{a}}o de 33,47{\%} para 95,63{\%} do territ{\'{o}}rio do Esp{\'{i}}rito Santo, tornando o caf{\'{e}} ar{\'{a}}bica impr{\'{o}}prio para o cultivo no estado, se mantidas as caracter{\'{i}}sticas gen{\'{e}}ticas e fisiol{\'{o}}gicas que tem como limite de toler{\^{a}}ncia de temperaturas m{\'{e}}dias anuais entre 23°C e 24°C.},
author = {Bragan{\c{c}}a, Rosembergue and {Dos Santos}, Alexandre Rosa and {De Souza}, Elias Fernandes and {De Carvalho}, Almy J{\'{u}}nior Cordeiro and Luppi, Alixandre Sanquetta Laporti and {Da Silva}, Rosane Gomes},
doi = {10.18227/1982-8470ragro.v10i1.2809},
file = {::},
issn = {1982-8470},
journal = {Revista Agro@mbiente On-line},
keywords = {Aquecimento global. Coffea arabica L. Painel Inter,Sistemas de informa{\c{c}}{\~{o}}es geogr{\'{a}}ficas.},
month = {jun},
number = {1},
pages = {77},
title = {{Impactos das mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'{a}}ticas no zoneamento agroclimatol{\'{o}}gico do caf{\'{e}} ar{\'{a}}bica no Esp{\'{i}}rito Santo}},
url = {http://revista.ufrr.br/index.php/agroambiente/article/view/2809},
volume = {10},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Brahney2013,
abstract = {Considerable research has focused on the role of industrial emissions in controlling the acidity of precipitation; however, much less research has focused on the role of mineral aerosols emitted from soils. According to data published by the National Atmospheric Deposition Network (NADP), over the past 17years Ca2+ deposition has increased over large regions of the US. A trend analysis to determine regions of significant change in Ca2+ deposition revealed statistically significant increases in three broad regions within the western half of the country: the inter-mountain west, the midwest, and the northwest. We evaluated potential changes in sources of calcium to the atmosphere including soil erosion, industrial emissions, forest fires, and sea-salt aerosols to determine the cause of rising atmospheric calcium deposition. Based on our evaluation, the most parsimonious explanation for increased Ca2+ deposition is an increase in mineral aerosol emissions from within the western US. This explanation is corroborated by independent evidence showing increases in the frequency of dust storms and low-visibility days across regions of the western US. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the increase in mineral aerosol emissions is most likely due to (1) increased aridity and wind transport and (2) increased area and intensity of upwind human activities. Changes in atmospheric dust concentrations can have important ecological implications through the contribution of acid neutralizing capacity to both precipitation and regions of deposition. Thus increased dust emissions have the potential to ameliorate the detrimental effects of acid precipitation on terrestrial ecosystems, though dust may exacerbate the impacts of air quality on human health. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier B.V.},
author = {Brahney, J. and Ballantyne, A. P. and Sievers, C. and Neff, J. C.},
doi = {10.1016/j.aeolia.2013.04.003},
issn = {18759637},
journal = {Aeolian Research},
keywords = {Alkalinity,Calcium,Dust,Land-use,Precipitation,Wind},
month = {sep},
pages = {77--87},
title = {{Increasing Ca2+ deposition in the western US: The role of mineral aerosols}},
volume = {10},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Brander2017,
abstract = {An overview of the current scientific knowledge available on climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture is provided through three technical papers that were presented and discussed during the Expert Workshop on Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture (Rome, 79 April 2008). A summary of the workshop outcomes as well as key messages on impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems and on fisheries- and aquaculture-based livelihoods are provided in the introduction of this Technical Paper. The first paper reviews the physical and ecological impacts of climate change relevant to marine and inland capture fisheries and aquaculture. The paper begins with a review of the physical impacts of climate change on marine and freshwater systems and then connects these changes with observed effects on fish production processes. It also outlines a series of scenarios of climate change impacts on fish production and ecosystems through case studies in different regions and ecosystems. The second paper tackles the consequences of climate change impacts on fisheries and their dependent communities. It analyses the exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability of fisheries to climate change and presents examples of adaptive mechanisms currently used in the sector. The contribution of fisheries to greenhouse gas emissions is addressed and examples of mitigation strategies are given. The role of public policy and institutions in promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation is also explored. Finally, the third paper addresses the impacts of climate change on aquaculture. It provides an overview of the current food fish and aquaculture production and a synthesis of existing studies on climate change effects on aquaculture and fisheries. The paper focuses on the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on aquaculture, in terms of biodiversity, fish disease and fishmeal. Contribution of aquaculture to climate change is addressed (carbon emission and carbon sequestration), as well as possible adaptation and mitigation measures that could be implemented.},
address = {Chichester, UK},
author = {Brander, Keith and Cochrane, Kevern and Barange, Manuel and Soto, Doris},
booktitle = {Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture: A Global Analysis, I},
doi = {10.1002/9781119154051.ch3},
editor = {Phillips, B.F. and P{\'{e}}rez‐Ram{\'{i}}rez, M.},
month = {sep},
pages = {45--62},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/9781119154051.ch3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Brando6347,
abstract = {Climate change alone is unlikely to drive severe tropical forest degradation in the next few decades, but an alternative process associated with severe weather and forest fires is already operating in southeastern Amazonia. Recent droughts caused greatly elevated fire-induced tree mortality in a fire experiment and widespread regional forest fires that burned 5-2{\%} of southeastern Amazon forests. These results suggest that feedbacks between fires and extreme climatic conditions could increase the likelihood of an Amazon forest 'dieback' in the near-term. To secure the integrity of seasonally dry Amazon forests, efforts to end deforestation must be accompanied by initiatives that reduce the accidental spread of land management fires into neighboring forest reserves and effectively suppress forest fires when they start.Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462{\%}) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31{\%}) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30{\%}) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63{\%}), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW.m-1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5{\%} of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with {\textless}1{\%} in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.},
author = {Brando, Paulo Monteiro and Balch, Jennifer K and Nepstad, Daniel C and Morton, Douglas C and Putz, Francis E and Coe, Michael T and Silverio, D. and Macedo, Marcia N and Davidson, Eric A and Nobrega, C. C. and Alencar, Ane and Soares-Filho, Britaldo S},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1305499111},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {17},
pages = {6347--6352},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions}},
url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/111/17/6347 http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1305499111},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Brando2019,
abstract = {Tropical woody plants store ∼230 petagrams of carbon (PgC) in their aboveground living biomass. This review suggests that these stocks are currently growing in primary forests at rates that have decreased in recent decades. Droughts are an important mechanism in reducing forest C uptake and stocks by decreasing photosynthesis, elevating tree mortality, increasing autotrophic respiration, and promoting wildfires. Tropical forests were a C source to the atmosphere during the 2015–2016 El Ni{\~{n}}o–related drought, with some estimates suggesting that up to 2.3 PgC were released. With continued climate change, the intensity and frequency of droughts and fires will likely increase. It is unclear at what point the impacts of severe, repeated disturbances by drought and fires could exceed tropical forests' capacity to recover. Although specific threshold conditions beyond which ecosystem properties could lead to alternative stable states are largely unknown, the growing body of scientific evidence points to such threshold conditions becoming more likely as climate and land use change across the tropics. ▪ Droughts have reduced forest carbon uptake and stocks by elevating tree mortality, increasing autotrophic respiration, and promoting wildfires. ▪ Threshold conditions beyond which tropical forests are pushed into alternative stable states are becoming more likely as effects of droughts intensify.},
author = {Brando, Paulo M. and Paolucci, Lucas and Ummenhofer, Caroline C. and Ordway, Elsa M. and Hartmann, Henrik and Cattau, Megan E. and Rattis, Ludmila and Medjibe, Vincent and Coe, Michael T. and Balch, Jennifer},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-earth-082517-010235},
issn = {0084-6597},
journal = {Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences},
keywords = {Amazon,Congo Basin,Southeast Asia,carbon,climate change,drought,tree mortality,tropical forests},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {555--581},
publisher = {Annual Reviews},
title = {{Droughts, Wildfires, and Forest Carbon Cycling: A Pantropical Synthesis}},
url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-082517-010235 https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-earth-082517-010235},
volume = {47},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Brasseur2016,
abstract = {This perspective paper reviews progress made in the last decades to enhance the communication and use of climate information relevant to the political and economic decision process. It focuses, specifically, on the creation and development of climate services, and highlights a number of difficulties that have limited the success of these services. Among them are the insufficient awareness by societal actors of their vulnerability to climate change, the lack of relevant products and services offered by the scientific community, the inappropriate format in which the information is provided, and the inadequate business model adopted by climate services. The authors suggest that, to be effective, centers should host within the same center a diversity of staff including experts in climate science, specialists in impact, adaptation, and vulnerability, representatives of the corporate world, agents of the public service as well as social managers and communication specialists. The role and importance of environmental engineering is emphasized. {\textcopyright} 2016 The Authors.},
author = {Brasseur, Guy P and Gallardo, Laura},
doi = {10.1002/2015EF000338},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {79--89},
title = {{Climate services: Lessons learned and future prospects}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015EF000338},
volume = {4},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Limburg2018,
abstract = {Oxygen is fundamental to life. Not only is it essential for the survival of individual animals, but it regulates global cycles of major nutrients and carbon. The oxygen content of the open ocean and coastal waters has been declining for at least the past half-century, largely because of human activities that have increased global temperatures and nutrients discharged to coastal waters. These changes have accelerated consumption of oxygen by microbial respiration, reduced solubility of oxygen in water, and reduced the rate of oxygen resupply from the atmosphere to the ocean interior, with a wide range of biological and ecological consequences. Further research is needed to understand and predict long-term, global- and regional-scale oxygen changes and their effects on marine and estuarine fisheries and ecosystems.},
author = {Breitburg, Denise and Levin, Lisa A. and Oschlies, Andreas and Gr{\'{e}}goire, Marilaure and Chavez, Francisco P. and Conley, Daniel J. and Gar{\c{c}}on, V{\'{e}}ronique and Gilbert, Denis and Guti{\'{e}}rrez, Dimitri and Isensee, Kirsten and Jacinto, Gil S. and Limburg, Karin E. and Montes, Ivonne and Naqvi, S. W. A. and Pitcher, Grant C. and Rabalais, Nancy N. and Roman, Michael R. and Rose, Kenneth A. and Seibel, Brad A. and Telszewski, Maciej and Yasuhara, Moriaki and Zhang, Jing},
doi = {10.1126/science.aam7240},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jan},
number = {6371},
pages = {eaam7240},
title = {{Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aam7240},
volume = {359},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bremer2019,
abstract = {Increasing numbers of scholars and practitioners appeal to procedural theories of ‘co-production' as they work to transform climate science into climate services. Most work in this direction theorises co-production as an ‘iterative and interactive' process between climate service providers and users, with success measured mainly in terms of the usefulness and usability of the information product for the user. But notwithstanding these first important steps, this perspective paper argues that the current study of climate service co-production is too narrowly framed, and fails to properly engage with the broad and rich literature that conceives of co-production processes in a diversity of ways. The authors suggest a fresh look on co-production as a process best examined simultaneously from several complimentary perspectives, with reference to recent work reconceptualising co-production as an eight-sided ‘prism'. Using an illustrative example of climate services developed to predict and visualise future flooding in the municipality of Voss, in Norway, the paper demonstrates how this prism concept of co-production can enable a more comprehensive view on co-production as a multi-faceted phenomenon, improve mutual understanding among actors and, ultimately, help design climate services that are better tailored for climate change responses in particular contexts.},
author = {Bremer, Scott and Wardekker, Arjan and Dessai, Suraje and Sobolowski, Stefan and Slaattelid, Rasmus and van der Sluijs, Jeroen},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2019.01.003},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {jan},
pages = {42--50},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Toward a multi-faceted conception of co-production of climate services}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880718300426 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880718300426},
volume = {13},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Brewington2019a,
abstract = {This project developed an integrated land cover/hydrological modeling framework using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) data, stakeholder input, climate information and projections, and empirical data to estimate future groundwater recharge on the Island of Maui, Hawaiʻi, USA. End-of-century mean annual groundwater recharge was estimated under four future land cover scenarios: Future 1 (conservation-focused), Future 2 (status-quo), Future 3 (development-focused), and Future 4 (balanced conservation and development), and two downscaled climate projections: a coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 “dry climate” future and a CMIP3 A1B “wet climate” future. Results were compared to recharge estimated using the 2017 baseline land cover to understand how changing land management and climate could influence groundwater recharge. Estimated recharge increased island-wide under all future land cover and climate combinations and was dominated by specific land cover transitions. For the dry future climate, recharge for land cover Futures 1 to 4 increased by 12{\%}, 0.7{\%}, 0.01{\%}, and 11{\%} relative to 2017 land cover conditions, respectively. Corresponding increases under the wet future climate were 10{\%}, 0.9{\%}, 0.6{\%}, and 9.3{\%}. Conversion from fallow/grassland to diversified agriculture increased irrigation, and therefore recharge. Above the cloud zone (610 m), conversion from grassland to native or alien forest led to increased fog interception, which increased recharge. The greatest changes to recharge occurred in Futures 1 and 4 in areas where irrigation increased, and where forest expanded within the cloud zone. Furthermore, new future urban expansion is currently slated for coastal areas that are already water-stressed and had low recharge projections. This study demonstrated that a spatially-explicit scenario planning process and modeling framework can communicate the possible consequences and tradeoffs of land cover change under a changing climate, and the outputs from this study serve as relevant tools for landscape-level management and interventions.},
author = {Brewington, Laura and Keener, Victoria and Mair, Alan},
doi = {10.3390/rs11243048},
issn = {2072-4292},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
keywords = {Climate change,Groundwater recharge,Island sustainability,Land cover change,Natural resource management,Scenario planning,Urbanization},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {3048},
publisher = {MDPI AG},
title = {{Simulating Land Cover Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge under Selected Climate Projections, Maui, Hawaiʻi}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/24/3048},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Briley2015,
abstract = {The Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments program (GLISA) has led the co-development of usable climate information for decision-making in several case study projects. Although each case study is with a unique partnering organization made up of different stakeholders with varying information needs and capabilities, several patterns have emerged that GLISA has identified and overcome to advance the practice of applied climate information. There are three main barriers that GLISA encounters at the onset of many of the case studies: (1) mismatched terminology used by scientists and stakeholders to describe the types of information that are available and needed for problem solving (translation); (2) unrealistic expectations regarding the development of climate information products for problem solving; and (3) disordered integration of when stakeholders want to bring climate information into decision-making processes. Although some or all of these barriers are likely to exist at the onset of any new climate information partnership, GLISA has developed methods for overcoming them more quickly so that the process of co-developing usable climate information is more efficient and effective. In this paper we describe in detail GLISA's experiences that have led to the realization of these barriers and the steps GLISA has taken to overcome them. We also relate these barriers to literature on the “usability gap” between climate science and information use in decision-making as well as uncertainty cascades in climate change adaptation. These experiences demonstrate that climate scientists performing outreach experience similar struggles as the stakeholders they interact with. However, they also reveal the potential for climate-centered boundary organizations to cultivate their own capacities to overcome these challenges in their partnerships.},
author = {Briley, Laura and Brown, Daniel and Kalafatis, Scott E.},
doi = {10.1016/J.CRM.2015.04.004},
issn = {2212-0963},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
month = {jan},
pages = {41--49},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Overcoming barriers during the co-production of climate information for decision-making}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096315000157},
volume = {9},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Brimelow2017,
abstract = {Greater convective activity is anticipated with anthropogenic climate change. Model results now indicate that the size and frequency of large hail events will likely increase over the US, particularly in southern and central regions, increasing the risk of hail damage.},
author = {Brimelow, Julian C. and Burrows, William R. and Hanesiak, John M.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3321},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Climate,Projection and prediction,change impacts},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {516--522},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3321},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Bring2016,
abstract = {Terrestrial hydrology is central to the Arctic system and its freshwater circulation. Water transport and water constituents vary, however, across a very diverse geography. In this paper, which is a component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review the central freshwater processes in the terrestrial Arctic drainage and how they function and change across seven hydrophysiographical regions (Arctic tundra, boreal plains, shield, mountains, grasslands, glaciers/ice caps, and wetlands). We also highlight links between terrestrial hydrology and other components of the Arctic freshwater system. In terms of key processes, snow cover extent and duration is generally decreasing on a pan-Arctic scale, but snow depth is likely to increase in the Arctic tundra. Evapotranspiration will likely increase overall, but as it is coupled to shifts in landscape characteristics, regional changes are uncertain and may vary over time. Streamflow will generally increase with increasing precipitation, but high and low flows may decrease in some regions. Continued permafrost thaw will trigger hydrological change in multiple ways, particularly through increasing connectivity between groundwater and surface water and changing water storage in lakes and soils, which will influence exchange of moisture with the atmosphere. Other effects of hydrological change include increased risks to infrastructure and water resource planning, ecosystem shifts, and growing flows of water, nutrients, sediment, and carbon to the ocean. Coordinated efforts in monitoring, modeling, and processing studies at various scales are required to improve the understanding of change, in particular at the interfaces between hydrology, atmosphere, ecology, resources, and oceans.},
author = {Bring, A. and Fedorova, I. and Dibike, Y. and Hinzman, L. and M{\aa}rd, J. and Mernild, S. H. and Prowse, T. and Semenova, O. and Stuefer, S. L. and Woo, M.‐K.},
doi = {10.1002/2015JG003131},
issn = {2169-8953},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences},
keywords = {Arctic freshwater system,Earth system interactions,cryosphere,hydrology,regional climate change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {621--649},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Arctic terrestrial hydrology: A synthesis of processes, regional effects, and research challenges}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JG003131},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Broeckx2020,
abstract = {Landslides are a main driver of landscape evolution and a dominant sediment source in many regions worldwide. Nevertheless, their role in sediment mobilization and denudation remains poorly quantified, especially at the global scale. Based on an extensive literature review, we compiled measured contemporary landslide mobilization rates (i.e. the average annual volume of hillslope material displaced per unit area; LMR, [m³/km²/y]) from 116 study areas worldwide. Using this dataset, we calibrated and validated a multiple regression model that simulates global patterns of LMR at decadal timescales. This model explains about 62{\%} of the observed variance in LMR based on topography, seismicity and lithology. By applying this model at the global scale and accounting for uncertainties due to observation and prediction errors, we estimate that annually about 56 billion m³ (∼100 gigaton) is mobilized by landslides worldwide. Intercontinental and interregional differences are large with Asia accounting for 68{\%} (38 billion m³) of the global LMR. The Central and Southeast Asian mountain ranges (including the Himalaya and Karakoram) account for 50{\%} (28 billion m³) of this rate, while covering only 2{\%} of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Comparisons of our simulated LMR with other data and models from literature suggest that, in highly tectonically active regions, around 70{\%} of the mobilized landslide volumes are due to earthquake-triggered landslides. At the global scale, the contribution of coseismic landsliding to the total landslide mobilization rate is likely in the order of 30–40{\%}. Using available databases of measured catchment sediment yield (SY), we also conducted a statistical comparison between measured SY and estimated LMR for nearly 3000 catchments in Europe and Africa. We observe highly significant relationships between LMR and SY for Europe (R²: 0.35, p {\textless} 0.001) and Africa (R²: 0.2, p {\textless} 0.001). Furthermore, landslide mobilization rates are typically larger than the corresponding SY. Overall, this study provides a first estimation of the global patterns of LMR. The results confirm the importance of landsliding as a dominant process of landscape denudation and sediment mobilization, but also illustrate the huge regional variations that characterize this process as well as the importance of sediment dynamics within catchments.},
author = {Broeckx, Jente and Rossi, Mauro and Lijnen, Kobe and Campforts, Benjamin and Poesen, Jean and Vanmaercke, Matthias},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102972},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
keywords = {Empirical model,Global dataset,Landslide mobilization,Lithology,Local relief,Mass movement,Sediment yield,Seismicity},
month = {feb},
pages = {102972},
title = {{Landslide mobilization rates: A global analysis and model}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012825219302557 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825219302557},
volume = {201},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Bromirski2013,
author = {Bromirski, Peter D and Cayan, Daniel R and Helly, John and Wittmann, Paul},
doi = {10.1002/2013JC009189},
issn = {21699275},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {6329--6348},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Wave power variability and trends across the North Pacific}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013JC009189},
volume = {118},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Brooks2013,
abstract = {As the planet warms, it is important to consider possible impacts of climate change on severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. To further that discussion, the current distribution of severe thunderstorms as a function of large-scale environmental conditions is presented. Severe thunderstorms are much more likely to form in environments with large values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-tropospheric wind shear. Tornadoes and large hail are preferred in high-shear environments and non-tornadic wind events in low shear. Further, the intensity of tornadoes and hail, given that they occur, tends to be almost entirely a function of the shear and only weakly depends on the thermodynamics.Climate model simulations suggest that CAPE will increase in the future and the wind shear will decrease. Detailed analysis has suggested that the CAPE change will lead to more frequent environments favorable for severe thunderstorms, but the strong dependence on shear for tornadoes, particularly the strongest ones, and hail means that the interpretation of how individual hazards will change is open to question. The recent development of techniques to use higher-resolution models to estimate the occurrence of storms of various kinds is discussed. Given the large interannual variability in environments and occurrence of events, caution is urged in interpreting the observational record as evidence of climate change. {\textcopyright} 2012.},
author = {Brooks, H.E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002},
isbn = {01698095},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Climate change,Severe thunderstorms,Tornadoes},
month = {apr},
pages = {129--138},
title = {{Severe thunderstorms and climate change}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809512000968},
volume = {123},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Brooks2014,
abstract = {Whether or not climate change has had an impact on the occurrence of tornadoes in the United States has become a question of high public and scientific interest, but changes in how tornadoes are reported have made it difficult to answer it convincingly. We show that, excluding the weakest tornadoes, the mean annual number of tornadoes has remained relatively constant, but their variability of occurrence has increased since the 1970s. This is due to a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes combined with an increase in days with many tornadoes, leading to greater variability on annual and monthly time scales and changes in the timing of the start of the tornado season.},
author = {Brooks, Harold E and Carbin, Gregory W and Marsh, Patrick T},
doi = {10.1126/science.1257460},
issn = {1095-9203},
journal = {Science},
month = {oct},
number = {6207},
pages = {349--52},
pmid = {25324388},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25324388},
volume = {346},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Brooks2013a,
abstract = {Engagement, entrepreneurship, and evaluation are the keys to innovative and transformative services that will help citizens, businesses, and governments manage climate risks.},
author = {Brooks, Mark S.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00087.1},
isbn = {0003-0007$\backslash$r1520-0477},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {807--819},
title = {{Accelerating Innovation in Climate Services: The 3 E's for Climate Service Providers}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00087.1},
volume = {94},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Brouillet2019,
abstract = {Abstract Heat stress is expected to intensify, since temperatures are projected to increase during the 21st century. We investigate the assumed co-occurrence of annual extremes of temperature and one heat stress metric and assess the effect of relative humidity variations on the heat stress changes. We show in CMIP5 simulations that both extremes tend to co-occur in Europe and northern America, when the conditions are the hottest and the driest. However, extreme seasons occur later for heat stress than temperature by up to 2 months within the tropics. By 2100, models project a drying that hampers the increase in heat stress extremes. Within northeastern Africa, the slight projected wettening enhances the warming effect on the heat stress changes and induces the maximum heat stress intensification. Models are generally able to represent the phasing of both extremes compared to observations, with large uncertainties over regions experiencing the greatest future heat stress intensification.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2019GL084156},
author = {Brouillet, Audrey and Joussaume, Sylvie},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084156},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {co-occurrence,extremes,heat stress,relative humidity,temperature},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {11435--11443},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Investigating the Role of the Relative Humidity in the Co-Occurrence of Temperature and Heat Stress Extremes in CMIP5 Projections}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084156},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Brown2018a,
author = {Brown, S. and Nicholls, R. J. and Goodwin, P. and Haigh, I. D. and Lincke, D. and Vafeidis, A. T. and Hinkel, J.},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000738},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {area exposed,coast,flood plain,people exposed,sea‐level},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {583--600},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017EF000738},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{Brown2019,
abstract = {In situ observations of snow water equivalent (SWE) from manual snow surveys and automated sensors are made at approximately 1000 sites across Canada in support of water resource planning for flood control and hydroelectricity production. These data represent an important source of information for research (e.g., validation of hydrological and climate models), for applied studies (e.g., ground snow loads), and for climate monitoring. This note describes the process to update a Canadian historical snow survey dataset to 2016 and the production of a 0.1° gridded version for research applications. Analysis of trends in SWE, snow depth (SD), and density over the 50-year period from 1967 to 2016 revealed large spatial variability in trend sign and strength, with a relatively small percentage of points showing statistically significant trends. Where SWE and SD trends were significant, they tended to be negative, which is consistent with previous investigations of snow cover changes in Canada. The results show evidence of a latitudinal dependence in SWE trends, with the largest negative trends occurring over lower latitudes, and a tendency for mainly positive trends in Arctic SWE, which is consistent with observations from Russia and climate model projections of the response of Arctic snow cover to climate warming. Arctic sites also showed evidence of an increasing trend in 1 April snowpack density of 6.6 kg m−3 per decade but little corresponding change in SD. This has potentially important consequences for the soil thermal regime because it provides a cooling influence from an increase in the snowpack effective thermal conductivity. The snow survey dataset is available from the Government of Canada Open Data portal.},
author = {Brown, Ross D. and Fang, Bruno and Mudryk, Lawrence},
booktitle = {Atmosphere-Ocean},
doi = {10.1080/07055900.2019.1598843},
issn = {14809214},
keywords = {Canada,climate variability,observational,snow},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {149--156},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis Ltd.},
title = {{Update of Canadian Historical Snow Survey Data and Analysis of Snow Water Equivalent Trends, 1967–2016}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07055900.2019.1598843},
volume = {57},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Brunetti2010,
author = {Brunetti, M. T. and Peruccacci, S. and Rossi, M. and Luciani, S. and Valigi, D. and Guzzetti, F.},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-10-447-2010},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {447--458},
title = {{Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy}},
url = {http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/447/2010/},
volume = {10},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Brunner2018,
abstract = {The impact of atmospheric blocking on European heat waves (HWs) and cold spells (CSs) is investigated for present and future conditions. A 50-member ensemble of the second generation Canadian Earth System Model is used to quantify the role of internal variability in the response to blocking. We find that the present blocking-extreme temperature link is well represented compared to ERA-Interim, despite a significant underestimation of blocking frequency in most ensemble members. Our results show a strong correlation of blocking with northern European HWs in summer, spring, and fall. However, we also find a strong anticorrelation between blocking and HW occurrence in southern Europe in all seasons. Blocking increases the CS frequency particularly in southern Europe in fall, winter, and spring but reduces it in summer. For the future we find that blocking will continue to play an important role in the development of both CSs and HWs in all seasons.},
author = {Brunner, Lukas and Schaller, Nathalie and Anstey, James and Sillmann, Jana and Steiner, Andrea K.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL077837},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Europe,atmospheric blocking,climate model,cold spells,heat waves,large ensemble},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {6311-- 6320},
title = {{Dependence of Present and Future European Temperature Extremes on the Location of Atmospheric Blocking}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL077837},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Bruno2018,
author = {Bruno, John F and Bates, Amanda E and Cacciapaglia, Chris and Pike, Elizabeth P and Amstrup, Steven C and van Hooidonk, Ruben and Henson, Stephanie A and Aronson, Richard B},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0149-2},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {499--503},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Climate change threatens the world's marine protected areas}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0149-2},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{BrunoSoares2018,
abstract = {Society can benefit from usable climate information to better prepare and adapt to the risks and opportunities posed by climate variability and change. An adequate and effective provision of climate information – from historical observations through to seasonal forecasts, and multi-decadal climate change projections – is critical to inform planning and decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors. Central to this are the end-users of climate information and a growing emphasis on tailored climate information and services shaped by user needs. However, knowledge about the use of climate information across European economic sectors is limited. This paper identifies the spectrum of sectoral information requirements across a number of sectors including agriculture, forestry, energy, water, tourism, insurance, health, emergency services and transport sectors, drawing from an online survey (n = 462) and interviews with (potential) users of climate information (n = 80). This analysis reveals shared opportunities across sectors including the potential application of decadal climate predictions. In addition, common barriers and enablers to the uptake of climate information were also noted including the format of the information provided, the need for compatibility with existing in-house systems, and the perceived credibility and trust of information providers. This analysis also points towards a perceived increasing fragmentation of available information and the desire amongst end-users for a European body able to centralise and coordinate climate data. We highlight some of the current factors that still need to be adequately addressed in order to enhance the uptake and application of climate information in decision-making across European economic sectors.},
author = {{Bruno Soares}, Marta and Alexander, Meghan and Dessai, Suraje},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2017.06.001},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {jan},
pages = {5--20},
title = {{Sectoral use of climate information in Europe: A synoptic overview}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880717300018},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{BrunoSoares2019a,
abstract = {Climate services have emerged as a research and operational field in recent years. This development has been underpinned and supported by significant research, funding and agenda-setting efforts such as the Global Framework for Climate Services internationally and the Roadmap for Climate Services and the Copernicus Climate Change Service in Europe. The fast pace at which this field is developing raises a number of key challenges that need to be critically examined and addressed to ensure the future development and sustainability of climate services in Europe. This opinion piece highlights a number of challenges currently threatening the viability of climate services including the complexity of the concept of climate services; the complex landscape of complementary research and development areas relevant to climate services; existing rights to freely access and use climate services; current limitations to funding structures and mechanisms and how that impacts on the development of climate services; the emphasis on co-production as a precondition to climate services development; and the limited role of the social sciences in the research and operational field of climate services. Effectively addressing these challenges will require a commitment from the scientific and practitioner communities to engage in critical and reflective debates around the future conceptualization and operationalization of climate services in Europe. This paper aims to provide critical input to stimulate a necessary and overdue debate around the sustainability and future of climate services in Europe. This article is categorized under: Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge {\textgreater} Knowledge and Practice.},
author = {{Bruno Soares}, Marta and Buontempo, Carlo},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.587},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
keywords = {challenges for climate services in Europe,co-production,concept of climate services,governing rights,social sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {e587},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Challenges to the sustainability of climate services in Europe}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.587},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{BrunoSoares2018a,
abstract = {Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) can support decision-making and thus help society cope with and prepare for climate variability and change. The demand for understanding the value and benefits of using SCF in decision-making processes can be associated with different logics. Two of these would be the need to justify public and private investment in the provision of SCF and demonstrating the gains and benefits of using SCF in specific decision-making contexts. This paper reviews the main factors influencing how SCF is (or can be) valued in supporting decision-making and the main methods and metrics currently used to perform such valuations. Our review results in four key findings: (a) there is a current emphasis on economic ex ante studies and the quantification of SCF value; (b) there are fundamental differences in how the value of SCF is defined and estimated across methods and approaches; (c) most valuation methods are unable to capture the differential benefits and risks of using SCF across spatiotemporal scales and groups; and (d) there is limited involvement of the decision-makers in the valuation process. The paper concludes by providing some guiding principles towards more effective valuations of SCF, notably the need for a wider diversity and integration of methodological approaches. These should particularly embrace ex-post, qualitative, and participatory approaches which allow co-evaluation with decision-makers so that more comprehensive and equitable SCF valuations can be developed in future. This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change {\textgreater} Institutions for Adaptation.},
author = {{Bruno Soares}, Marta and Daly, Meaghan and Dessai, Suraje},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.523},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
keywords = {assessing value of climate information,climate services,seasonal climate forecasts,valuation methods,value of climate information for decision-making},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {e523},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision-making}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.523},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{asr-14-175-2017,
author = {{Bruno Soares}, M},
doi = {10.5194/asr-14-175-2017},
journal = {Advances in Science and Research},
pages = {175--180},
title = {{Assessing the usability and potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in land management decisions in the southwest UK: challenges and reflections}},
url = {https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/14/175/2017/},
volume = {14},
year = {2017}
}
@article{BrunoSoares2016,
abstract = {Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) provide information about future climate variability that has the potential to benefit organisations and their decision-making. However, the production and availability of SCF does not guarantee its use in decision-making per se as a range of factors and conditions influence its use in different decision-making contexts. The aim of this paper is to identify the barriers and enablers to the use of SCF across organisations in Europe. To achieve that, we conducted 75 in-depth interviews with organisations working across eight sectors (including energy, transport, water and agriculture) and 16 countries. The majority of the organisations interviewed do not currently use SCF. This was due to the low reliability and skill of SCF in Europe but also with other non-technical aspects such as the lack of relevance and awareness of SCF in the organisations. Conversely, the main enabler to the use of SCF was the interactions with the providers of SCF. In addition, the level of organisational resources, capacity and expertise were also significant enablers to the use of SCF in organisations. This paper provides the first empirical assessment of the use of SCF in Europe. Such insights provide not only an overview of the existing barriers and enablers to the use of SCF in Europe and how these can be overcome and negotiated to enhance the usability of SCF, but can also help inform the broader and emerging context of climate services development in Europe.},
author = {{Bruno Soares}, Marta and Dessai, Suraje},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1671-8},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {1},
pages = {89--103},
title = {{Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1671-8},
volume = {137},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bullock2012,
abstract = {1. Climate change impacts on habitat suitability and demography are often studied, but direct effects on plant dispersal are rarely considered. To address this we analysed climate model projections of future wind speeds and modelled their possible impacts on dispersal and spread of wind-dispersed plants. 2. Projections for 17 Global Climate Models and three emission scenarios suggested great uncertainty about wind speeds in southern England by the period 2070-99. Projections ranged from -90{\%} to +100{\%} change in the mean wind speed, although the average projection was for large falls in both summer and winter wind speeds. 3. Using a novel method for converting projected changes in mean wind speed to new seasonal wind speed distributions, we parameterized a mechanistic model of seed dispersal by wind using baseline and changes in mean wind speed from -80{\%} to +80{\%}. 4. The mechanistic seed dispersal model was combined with demographic data in an analytical model of plant spread. This was carried out for three British native and three non-native species, which represented a range of life-forms. 5. Dispersal kernels and population spread rates were affected disproportionately by changes in wind speed, demonstrating nonlinear propagation of uncertainty in wind speed projections through to modelled plant spread rates. 6. Sensitivity analyses showed differences among the plant species in which demographic transitions were most important in determining spread rates. By contrast, sensitivity of spread rates to dispersal parameters showed great consistency among species, with seed release height being more important than seed terminal velocity. 7. Synthesis. Plant populations will need to shift their geographic ranges to keep pace with climate change-driven habitat loss. This study shows that climate change may affect that ability by decreasing the dispersal distances of wind-dispersed plants and thus their potential spread rates. However, the modelling approach presented here illustrates that uncertainty in climate models leads to an even greater uncertainty about how dispersal and spread will change in future climates. Caution should therefore be exercised in making predictions as to how fast plant species may spread in response to climate change. {\textcopyright} 2012 The Authors. Journal of Ecology {\textcopyright} 2012 British Ecological Society.},
author = {Bullock, James M. and White, Steven M. and Prudhomme, Christel and Tansey, Christine and Perea, Ram{\'{o}}n and Hooftman, Danny A. P.},
doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01910.x},
issn = {00220477},
journal = {Journal of Ecology},
keywords = {Climate change,Dispersal,Global climate models,Matrix models,Non-native,WALD model,Wavespeed model},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {104--115},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Modelling spread of British wind-dispersed plants under future wind speeds in a changing climate}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01910.x},
volume = {100},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Buontempo2018a,
author = {Buontempo, Carlo and Hewitt, Chris},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2017.06.011},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {jan},
pages = {1--4},
title = {{EUPORIAS and the development of climate services}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880717300031},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Buontempo2014,
abstract = {Climate services have become the focus of major international coordination activities over the past few years. In 2012 the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) was approved and will be led by several United Nations Agencies, to strengthen and coordinate existing initiatives and develop new infrastructure where needed to meet society's climate-related challenges. At European level the European Commission has allocated almost 27 million Euros from 2012 to 2016 towards the science behind seasonal and decadal climate services effectively putting Europe at the forefront of the international effort in developing this field. One of the main challenges climate service will face is the bridging of the so called valley of death: the divide still existing between climate science and decision-makers. Managing the multiple boundaries between producers and users of climate information is now of crucial importance. The concept of codesign and more generally of co-generation of knowledge is key to success of the new generation of climate services which need to be perceived as being not only credible scientifically but also salient and legitimate. In order to improve on the current setup it is essential for researchers to work on topics which could directly impact on the decision making process. The paper presents some of the key challenges and open questions climate service science will face in the coming years.},
author = {Buontempo, Carlo and Hewitt, Chris D. and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. and Dessai, Suraje},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2014.10.002},
issn = {22120963},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
pages = {1--5},
title = {{Climate service development, delivery and use in Europe at monthly to inter-annual timescales}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212096314000321},
volume = {6},
year = {2014}
}
@article{BUONTEMPO2020100226,
abstract = {To better understand and manage climate risks in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, it is essential to have access to consistent and reliable data and information products. Tailoring these products to the needs of the users they want to serve facilitate informed decision-making and downstream applications. This requires an in-depth understanding of users' needs and the context in which these users operate. Considering the diversity of the economic sectors and their actors it is extremely challenging if not outright impossible to promote the emergence of climate services without empowering a plethora of intermediate users who can act as one of the steps in a potential long knowledge brokers chain that connect the climate data providers and the end-users. In this context, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has been designed around the Climate Data Store (CDS), a unique entry point to a huge variety of quality-controlled climate data and high-level utilities to process that data to develop user-driven applications. Through the Sectoral Information System, C3S has then developed a series of sector specific applications, which show how the infrastructure can be used to address specific users' needs. This paper presents the key elements of the CDS and selected cases of sectoral application of C3S in agriculture.},
annote = {Innovations in managing climate risks and building resilience in agriculture},
author = {Buontempo, Carlo and Hutjes, Ronald and Beavis, Philip and Berckmans, Julie and Cagnazzo, Chiara and Vamborg, Freja and Th{\'{e}}paut, Jean-No{\"{e}}l and Bergeron, Cedric and Almond, Samuel and Amici, Alessandro and Ramasamy, Selvaraju and Dee, Dick},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2019.100226},
issn = {2212-0947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Agriculture sector,Climate Data Store (CDS),Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S),User-driven applications},
pages = {100226},
title = {{Fostering the development of climate services through Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) for agriculture applications}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719300994},
volume = {27},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Buontempo2018,
abstract = {The international effort toward climate services, epitomised by the development of the Global Framework for Climate Services and, more recently the launch of Copernicus Climate Change Service has renewed interest in the users and the role they can play in shaping the services they will eventually use. Here we critically analyse the results of the five climate service prototypes that were developed as part of the EU funded project EUPORIAS. Starting from the experience acquired in each of the projects we attempt to distil a few key lessons which, we believe, will be relevant to the wider community of climate service developers.},
author = {Buontempo, Carlo and Hanlon, Helen M. and {Bruno Soares}, Marta and Christel, Isadora and Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel and Viel, Christian and Calmanti, Sandro and Bosi, Lorenzo and Falloon, Pete and Palin, Erika J. and Vanvyve, Emilie and Torralba, Ver{\'{o}}nica and Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco and Pope, Edward C.D. and Newton, Paula and Liggins, Felicity},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2017.06.003},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {jan},
pages = {21--32},
title = {{What have we learnt from EUPORIAS climate service prototypes?}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880716300796},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0126.1,
abstract = { AbstractA climatology and trend of hail events in Romania are presented using hail data spanning the years 1961–2014. Hail observations from weather stations and model reanalysis data were used to document the spatial and temporal distributions, variabilities, and environments of hail events. The results show that hail occurs most frequently in mountainous areas, while the smallest average number of hail days per year is found in the southeast. Herein, the convective season was defined as April–September, given that 94.2{\%} of all mean monthly hail days were identified in this period. During the convective season the hail events prevail with most of these occurring in the afternoon and evening hours between 1000 and 1800 UTC. The severe hail events occur, overall, between 1400 and 1600 UTC, while in the southwest severe hail occurs later between 1600 and 1900 UTC. The spatial distribution of the convective parameters is consistent with the spatial distribution of hail days, revealing that hail is not favored in southeastern Romania, but in the rest of the country. The trend analysis of mean hail days per year disclose that 55.2{\%} of all stations show a statistically significant upward trend, 3.8{\%} show a statistically significant downward trend, while 40.9{\%} show no statistically significant trend. A correlation between the variability of hail days per year and the variability in the occurrence of low pressure systems of Atlantic origin exists, the latter generating low pressure systems over the Mediterranean Sea that supply eastern Europe with the moist air needed for convection. },
author = {Burcea, Sorin and Cică, Roxana and Bojariu, Roxana},
doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-16-0126.1},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
number = {11},
pages = {4289--4299},
title = {{Hail Climatology and Trends in Romania: 1961–2014}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0126.1},
volume = {144},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Burkart2011,
abstract = {This study assessed the effect of temperature and thermal atmospheric conditions on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh. In particular, differences in the response to elevated temperatures between urban and rural areas were investigated. Generalized additive models (GAMs) for daily death counts, adjusted for trend, season, day of the month and age were separately fitted for urban and rural areas. Breakpoint models were applied for determining the increase in mortality above and below a threshold (equivalent) temperature. Generally, a 'V'-shaped (equivalent) temperature–mortality curve with increasing mortality at low and high temperatures was observed. Particularly, urban areas suffered from heat-related mortality with a steep increase above a specific threshold. This adverse heat effect may well increase with ongoing urbanization and the intensification of the urban heat island due to the densification of building structures. Moreover, rising temperatures due to climate change could aggravate thermal stress.},
author = {Burkart, Katrin and Schneider, Alexandra and Breitner, Susanne and Khan, Mobarak Hossain and Kr{\"{a}}mer, Alexander and Endlicher, Wilfried},
doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2011.02.005},
issn = {0269-7491},
journal = {Environmental Pollution},
keywords = {All-cause mortality,Atmospheric thermo-physiological conditions,Cardiovascular mortality,Heat effect,Thermal pollution},
number = {8},
pages = {2035--2043},
title = {{The effect of atmospheric thermal conditions and urban thermal pollution on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749111000790},
volume = {159},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Burkett2011,
author = {Burkett, Virginia},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.016},
issn = {03014215},
journal = {Energy Policy},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {7719--7725},
title = {{Global climate change implications for coastal and offshore oil and gas development}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421511007051},
volume = {39},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Burls2019,
abstract = {In early 2018, Cape Town (population {\~{}}3.7 million) was at risk of being one of the first major metropolitan areas in the world to run out of water. This was due to a severe multi-year drought that led to the levels of supply dams falling to an unprecedented low. Here we analyze rainfall data from the city catchment areas, including rare centennial records from the surrounding region, to assess the severity of the 2015–2017 drought. We find that there has been a long-term decline in the number of winter rainfall days, but this trend has been generally masked by fluctuations in rainfall intensity. The recent drought is unprecedented in the centennial record and represents a combination of the long-term decline in rainfall days and a more recent decline in rainfall intensity. Cold fronts during the winter months are responsible for most of the rainfall reaching Cape Town and our analysis shows no robust regional trend in the number of fronts over the last 40 years. Rather, the observed multidecadal decline in rainfall days, which threatens to increase the occurrence of severe drought, appears to be linked to a decrease in the duration of rainfall events associated with cold fronts. This change in rainfall characteristics associated with fronts appears to be linked to Hadley Cell expansion seen across the Southern Hemisphere and an increasing trend in post-frontal high-pressure conditions that suppress orographically enhanced rainfall.},
author = {Burls, Natalie J. and Blamey, Ross C. and Cash, Benjamin A. and Swenson, Erik T. and al Fahad, Abdullah and Bopape, Mary Jane M. and Straus, David M. and Reason, Chris J.C.},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-019-0084-6},
issn = {23973722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Climate change},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1--8},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{The Cape Town “Day Zero” drought and Hadley cell expansion}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0084-6},
volume = {2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Burn2016,
author = {Burn, D H and Whitfield, P H},
doi = {10.1080/07011784.2015.1026844},
journal = {Canadian Water Resources Journal},
number = {1-2},
pages = {139--150},
title = {{Changes in floods and flood regimes in Canada}},
volume = {41},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Burrows2014a,
author = {Burrows, Michael T. and Schoeman, David S. and Richardson, Anthony J. and Molinos, Jorge Garc{\'{i}}a and Hoffmann, Ary and Buckley, Lauren B. and Moore, Pippa J. and Brown, Christopher J. and Bruno, John F. and Duarte, Carlos M. and Halpern, Benjamin S. and Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove and Kappel, Carrie V. and Kiessling, Wolfgang and O'Connor, Mary I. and Pandolfi, John M. and Parmesan, Camille and Sydeman, William J. and Ferrier, Simon and Williams, Kristen J. and Poloczanska, Elvira S.},
doi = {10.1038/nature12976},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {mar},
number = {7493},
pages = {492--495},
title = {{Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature12976},
volume = {507},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Riahi2018,
abstract = {Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those ‘vulnerable to poverty' from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income {\textless}{\$}10/day, currently 4.2 billion people). We show that global exposure to multi-sector risks approximately doubles between 1.5 °C and 2 °C GMT change, doubles again with 3 °C GMT change and is {\~{}}6x between the best and worst cases (SSP1/1.5 °C vs SSP3/3 °C, 0.8–4.7bi). For populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8–32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development (SSP1). Whilst 85{\%}–95{\%} of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91{\%}–98{\%} of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7{\%}–17{\%} at 1.5 °C, doubling to 14{\%}–30{\%} at 2 °C and again to 27{\%}–51{\%} at 3 °C. Finally, beyond 2 °C and at higher risk thresholds, the world's poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases (SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.},
author = {Byers, Edward and Gidden, Matthew and Lecl{\`{e}}re, David and Balkovic, Juraj and Burek, Peter and Ebi, Kristie and Greve, Peter and Grey, David and Havlik, Petr and Hillers, Astrid and Johnson, Nils and Kahil, Taher and Krey, Volker and Langan, Simon and Nakicenovic, Nebjosa and Novak, Robert and Obersteiner, Michael and Pachauri, Shonali and Palazzo, Amanda and Parkinson, Simon and Rao, Narasimha D and Rogelj, Joeri and Satoh, Yusuke and Wada, Yoshihide and Willaarts, Barbara and Riahi, Keywan},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabf45},
isbn = {4951127881},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {055012},
title = {{Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=5/a=055012?key=crossref.dcb006b2e0b98d78e8d8ed4aa6eb51fb},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Cabre2016,
abstract = {This work focuses on evaluating the climate change projected by the end of the 21st century under the SRES A2 emission scenario over southern South America using the regional model MM5. The model projects: (i) an increase of precipitation over central Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil during summer and fall; (ii) a decrease in precipitation over most of the study domain during winter and spring; (iii) an important decrease in precipitation over central and southern Chile, through the year. In general, the projected temperature increase depends on the season and the examined area; particularly, it is highest over tropical and subtropical latitudes in spring and over high latitudes in summer. The MM5 model projects: (i) an increase of the interannual precipitation variability of precipitation over central Argentina and Uruguay regardless the season; (ii) a slight decrease in interannual temperature variability over large extents of Argentina for summer and winter; (iii) a slight increase in interannual temperature variability at transition seasons; with highest values over central Chile in autumn and over north central Argentina in spring. From the reliability assessment of regional climate projections, it can be concluded that signal-to-noise ratio is high for temperature and low for precipitation. Therefore, the MM5 model is a useful tool in the generation of regional climate change scenarios of high resolution over southern South America, particularly for temperature, and is a starting point to perform studies related to impacts of climate change.},
author = {Cabr{\'{e}}, Mar{\'{i}}a Fernanda and Solman, Silvino and N{\'{u}}{\~{n}}ez, Mario},
doi = {10.20937/ATM.2016.29.01.04},
issn = {01876236},
journal = {Atm{\'{o}}sfera},
keywords = {Climate change scenarios,Regional climate modeling,South America,Uncertainties},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {35--60},
title = {{Regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for future climate (2080–2099) using the MM5 Model. Mean, interannual variability and uncertainties}},
url = {http://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/ATM.2016.29.01.04/46537},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Cai2017,
author = {Cai, Wei-Jun and Huang, Wei-Jen and Luther, George W and Pierrot, Denis and Li, Ming and Testa, Jeremy and Xue, Ming and Joesoef, Andrew and Mann, Roger and Brodeur, Jean and Xu, Yuan-Yuan and Chen, Baoshan and Hussain, Najid and Waldbusser, George G. and Cornwell, Jeffrey and Kemp, W. Michael},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-00417-7},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {369},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Redox reactions and weak buffering capacity lead to acidification in the Chesapeake Bay}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00417-7},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cai2019a,
abstract = {Abstract Lake ice is a robust indicator of climate change. The availability of information contained in Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer daily snow products from 2000 to 2017 could be greatly improved after cloud removal by gap filling. Thresholds based on open water pixel numbers are used to extract the freezeup start and breakup end dates for 58 lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP); 18 lakes are also selected to extract the freezeup end and breakup start dates. The lake ice durations are further calculated based on freezeup and breakup dates. Lakes on the TP begin to freezeup in late October and all the lakes start the ice cover period in mid-January of the following year. In late March, some lakes begin to break up, and all the lakes end the ice cover period in early July. Generally, the lakes in the northern Inner-TP have earlier freezeup dates and later breakup dates (i.e., longer ice cover durations) than those in the southern Inner-TP. Over 17 years, the mean ice cover duration of 58 lakes is 157.78 days, 18 (31{\%}) lakes have a mean extending rate of 1.11 day/year, and 40 (69{\%}) lakes have a mean shortening rate of 0.80 day/year. Geographical location and climate conditions determine the spatial heterogeneity of the lake ice phenology, especially the ones of breakup dates, while the physico-chemical characteristics mainly affect the freezeup dates of the lake ice in this study. Ice cover duration is affected by both climatic and lake specific physico-chemical factors, which can reflect the climatic and environmental change for lakes on the TP.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028993},
author = {Cai, Yu and Ke, Chang-Qing and Li, Xingong and Zhang, Guoqing and Duan, Zheng and Lee, Hoonyol},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD028993},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {MODIS,Tibetan Plateau,climate change,freezeup/breakup dates,lake ice phenology},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {825--843},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Variations of Lake Ice Phenology on the Tibetan Plateau From 2001 to 2017 Based on MODIS Data}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028993},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Cai2020,
abstract = {Lakes sensitively respond to global and regional climate change, especially in arid areas. Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily snow products, the lake ice phenology of 23 lakes in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China from 2001 to 2018 was extracted based on thresholds of ice/water pixel numbers, and their change trends over 18 years were calculated. The results of MODIS-derived lake ice phenology showed consistent variations with existing ice phenology data sets derived from passive microwave data. Generally, lakes in Xinjiang begin to freeze from October to December every year, and their ice cover periods end from March to June. The average ice cover duration for the 23 lakes is 167 days, of which 16 lakes have an average shortening rate of − 1.08 days/year and seven lakes have an average extending rate of 1.18 days/year. The majority of lakes experienced later freeze-up (17 lakes) and earlier break-up (18 lakes) from 2001 to 2018. Lake ice phenology is affected by both climatic factors and lake physicochemical characteristics, in which freeze-up dates are more easily affected by lake-specific factors such as lake area (r = 0.535), while climatic factors especially water surface temperature have greater impacts on lake break-up dates (r = − 0.874). Compared to air temperature, water surface temperature changes have a more direct influence on the variations in lake ice phenology, 1° increase in water surface temperature may cause the ice cover duration to decrease by 12 days, while precipitation changes have almost no effect on the lakes in Xinjiang. In some cases, lake changes such as changes to the area and mineralization may also have dominant impacts on lake ice phenology.},
author = {Cai, Yu and Ke, Chang-Qing and Yao, Guohui and Shen, Xiaoyi},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02623-2},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {575--592},
title = {{MODIS-observed variations of lake ice phenology in Xinjiang, China}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02623-2},
volume = {158},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Callaghan2011,
author = {Callaghan, Jeff and Power, Scott B.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-010-0883-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {647--662},
publisher = {Springer-Verlag},
title = {{Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-010-0883-2},
volume = {37},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Caminade2012,
abstract = {The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion.},
author = {Caminade, Cyril and Medlock, Jolyon M. and Ducheyne, Els and McIntyre, K. Marie and Leach, Steve and Baylis, Matthew and Morse, Andrew P.},
doi = {10.1098/rsif.2012.0138},
isbn = {1742-5662 (Electronic)$\backslash$n1742-5662 (Linking)},
issn = {1742-5689},
journal = {Journal of The Royal Society Interface},
keywords = {Aedes albopictus,Climate change,Europe,Regional climate modelling,Vector-borne diseases},
month = {oct},
number = {75},
pages = {2708--2717},
pmid = {22535696},
title = {{Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios}},
url = {http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/cgi/doi/10.1098/rsif.2012.0138},
volume = {9},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Caminade2014,
abstract = {Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {2675},
author = {Caminade, Cyril and Kovats, Sari and Rocklov, Joacim and Tompkins, Adrian M and Morse, Andrew P and Col{\'{o}}n-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Felipe J. and Stenlund, Hans and Martens, Pim and Lloyd, Simon J},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1302089111},
eprint = {2675},
isbn = {0027-8424},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {9},
pages = {3286--3291},
pmid = {24596427},
title = {{Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1302089111},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Cammarano2016,
abstract = {Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50{\%} of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.},
author = {Cammarano, Davide and R{\"{o}}tter, Reimund P. and Asseng, Senthold and Ewert, Frank and Wallach, Daniel and Martre, Pierre and Hatfield, Jerry L. and Jones, James W. and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Ruane, Alex C. and Boote, Kenneth J. and Thorburn, Peter J. and Kersebaum, Kurt Christian and Aggarwal, Pramod K. and Angulo, Carlos and Basso, Bruno and Bertuzzi, Patrick and Biernath, Christian and Brisson, Nadine and Challinor, Andrew J. and Doltra, Jordi and Gayler, Sebastian and Goldberg, Richie and Heng, Lee and Hooker, Josh and Hunt, Leslie A. and Ingwersen, Joachim and Izaurralde, Roberto C. and M{\"{u}}ller, Christoph and Kumar, Soora Naresh and Nendel, Claas and O'Leary, Garry J. and Olesen, J{\o}rgen E. and Osborne, Tom M. and Palosuo, Taru and Priesack, Eckart and Ripoche, Dominique and Semenov, Mikhail A. and Shcherbak, Iurii and Steduto, Pasquale and St{\"{o}}ckle, Claudio O. and Stratonovitch, Pierre and Streck, Thilo and Supit, Iwan and Tao, Fulu and Travasso, Maria and Waha, Katharina and White, Jeffrey W. and Wolf, Joost},
doi = {10.1016/J.FCR.2016.08.015},
issn = {0378-4290},
journal = {Field Crops Research},
month = {nov},
pages = {80--92},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378429016302726?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {198},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Camus2017,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2017 The Authors. Global multimodel wave climate projections are obtained at 1.0° × 1.0° scale from 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global circulation model (GCM) realizations. A semi-supervised weather-typing approach based on a characterization of the ocean wave generation areas and the historical wave information from the recent GOW2 database are used to train the statistical model. This framework is also applied to obtain high resolution projections of coastal wave climate and coastal impacts as port operability and coastal flooding. Regional projections are estimated using the collection of weather types at spacing of 1.0°. This assumption is feasible because the predictor is defined based on the wave generation area and the classification is guided by the local wave climate. The assessment of future changes in coastal impacts is based on direct downscaling of indicators defined by empirical formulations (total water level for coastal flooding and number of hours per year with overtopping for port operability). Global multimodel projections of the significant wave height and peak period are consistent with changes obtained in previous studies. Statistical confidence of expected changes is obtained due to the large number of GCMs to construct the ensemble. The proposed methodology is proved to be flexible to project wave climate at different spatial scales. Regional changes of additional variables as wave direction or other statistics can be estimated from the future empirical distribution with extreme values restricted to high percentiles (i.e., 95th, 99th percentiles). The statistical framework can also be applied to evaluate regional coastal impacts integrating changes in storminess and sea level rise.},
author = {Camus, P. and Losada, I. J. and Izaguirre, C. and Espejo, A. and Men{\'{e}}ndez, M. and P{\'{e}}rez, J.},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000609},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {Climate change coastal impacts,Multi-model ensemble projections,Multivariate wave climate,Multi‐model ensemble projections,Statistical downscaling},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {918--933},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Statistical wave climate projections for coastal impact assessments}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017EF000609},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Carey2012,
abstract = {Glacier hazards threaten societies in mountain regions worldwide. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose risks to exposed and vulnerable populations and can be linked in part to long-term post-Little Ice Age climate change because precariously dammed glacial lakes sometimes formed as glaciers generally retreated after the mid-1800s. This paper provides an interdisciplinary and historical analysis of 40 years of glacier hazard management on Mount Hualc{\'{a}}n, at glacial Lake 513, and in the city of Carhuaz in Peru's Cordillera Blanca mountain range. The case study examines attempted hazard zoning, glacial lake evolution and monitoring, and emergency engineering projects to drain Lake 513. It also analyzes the 11 April 2010 Hualc{\'{a}}n rock-ice avalanche that triggered a Lake 513 GLOF; we offer both a scientific assessment of the possible role of temperature on slope stability and a GIS spatial analysis of human impacts. Qualitative historical analysis of glacier hazard management since 1970 allows us to identify and explain why certain actions and policies to reduce risk were implemented or omitted. We extrapolate these case-specific variables to generate a broader socio-environmental framework identifying factors that can facilitate or impede disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Facilitating factors are technical capacity, disaster events with visible hazards, institutional support, committed individuals, and international involvement. Impediments include divergent risk perceptions, imposed government policies, institutional instability, knowledge disparities, and invisible hazards. This framework emerges from an empirical analysis of a coupled social-ecological system and offers a holistic approach for integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. {\textcopyright} 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.},
author = {Carey, Mark and Huggel, Christian and Bury, Jeffrey and Portocarrero, C{\'{e}}sar and Haeberli, Wilfried},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0249-8},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jun},
number = {3-4},
pages = {733--767},
title = {{An integrated socio-environmental framework for glacier hazard management and climate change adaptation: lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0249-8},
volume = {112},
year = {2012}
}
@misc{Carey-Smith2010,
abstract = {Abstract An analysis of daily precipitation output from a regional climate model was undertaken in order to estimate future changes in precipitation extremes for New Zealand. Daily rainfall for present (1971—2000) and future (2071—2100) climate under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B2 emission scenarios, was simulated by the regional climate model PRECIS, developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. Return values of 1-day precipitation extreme for a 5-year return period were calculated from a generalized Pareto extreme value model fitted to the tail of the rainfall distribution. A test of the statistical analysis in several regions of New Zealand revealed that the generalized Pareto model was appropriate for estimating daily precipitation extremes over the country for short return periods, but was unable to realistically capture the changes in longer return periods under transient climate change. For long return periods, a separate analysis of the regional climate model simulations suggested that the increase in the heaviest rainfall extremes in the country has an upper limit in the range of between 7 to 9{\%} per Kelvin of warming. Similarly, an ensemble of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3, suggested an increase of 5 to 12{\%} per Kelvin. For New Zealand, increases in precipitation extremes greater than that predicted by the widely used Clausius Clapeyron relationship (6.5{\%} per Kelvin), should be considered in future planning.},
author = {Carey-Smith, Trevor and Deana, Sam and Vialb, Jessica and Thompsona, Craig},
booktitle = {Weather and Climate},
doi = {10.2307/26169712},
pages = {23--48},
publisher = {Meteorological Society of New Zealand},
title = {{Changes in precipitation extremes for New Zealand: climate model predictions}},
url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/26169712},
volume = {30},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Carmona2014,
abstract = {We test for the existence of long-term trends in 25- to 50-year long series of monthly rainfall, average river discharges, and minimum air temperatures in Colombia. The Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used as a mathematical filter to decompose a given time series into a finite number of intrinsic mode functions, assuming the coexistence of different frequency oscillatory modes in the series, and that the residual captures the likely existing long-term trends. The Mann-Kendall test for autocorrelated data is used to assess the statistical significance of the identified trends, and the Sen test is used to quantify their magnitudes. Results show that 62 {\%} of river discharge series exhibit significant decreasing trends between 0.01-1.92 m3s-1per year, which are highly consistent downstream albeit with different ratios between the trend magnitudes and mean discharges. Most minimum temperature series (87 {\%}) exhibit increasing trends (0.01-0.08 °Cyr-1). Results for precipitation series are inconclusive owing to the mixing between increasing trends (41 {\%}, between 0.1-7.0 mm yr-1) and decreasing trends (44 {\%}, between 0.1-7.4 mm yr-1), with no clear-cut geographical pattern, except for the increasing trend identified along the Pacific region, consistent with the increasing trend identified in the strength of the Choc{\'{o}} low-level wind jet off the Pacific coast of Colombia, an important moisture source of continental precipitation. Our results contribute to discerning between signals of climate change and climate variability in tropical South America. {\textcopyright} 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.},
author = {Carmona, Alejandra M. and Poveda, Germ{\'{a}}n},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-1046-3},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate variability,Colombia,Empirical Mode Decomposition,Long term trends},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {301--313},
title = {{Detection of long-term trends in monthly hydro-climatic series of Colombia through Empirical Mode Decomposition}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-1046-3},
volume = {123},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Carrao2018,
abstract = {Projections of drought hazard (dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021–2050) and late-century (2071–2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971–2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.},
author = {Carr{\~{a}}o, Hugo and Naumann, Gustavo and Barbosa, Paulo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3740-8},
file = {::},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CMIP5 models,Drought hazard,Global warming,ISI-MIP project,RCP scenarios,Risk management},
month = {mar},
number = {5-6},
pages = {2137--2155},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3740-8},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{Carrasco2016,
abstract = {Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a particularly ominous threat to human habitations and infrastructure in the coastal zone because 10{\%} of the world's population lives in low-lying coastal regions within 10 m elevation of present sea level. There has been much discussion about projected (and the sources of projection) vs. measured SLR rates. Which rates should coastal scientists and managers apply in their studies, and what is the degree of confidence of such forecasts, are still open questions.This paper reviews the patterns and effects of relative SLR (RSLR) in coastal lagoons. Three main components are presented in the review: (a) a summary of the main approaches used in predicting medium- to long-term trends in RSLR, (b) a summary of the main evolutionary trends of coastal lagoons and the tools used to examine such trends, and (c) an identification of future research needs.The review reveals that the major source of uncertainty is how and when RSLR will manifest itself at different spatio-temporal scales in coastal lagoon systems, and how its effects can be mitigated. Most of the studies reviewed herein articulate a natural 'defence' mechanism of barriers in coastal lagoons by landward barrier retreat through continuous migration, and a gradual change in basin hypsometry during the retreat process. So far, only a relatively small number of detailed studies have integrated and quantified human impacts and coastal lagoon evolution induced by RSLR. We conclude that much more research about adaptation measures is needed, taking into consideration not only the physical and ecological systems but also social, cultural, and economic impacts. Future challenges include a downscaling of SLR approaches from the global level to regional and local levels, with a detailed application of coastal evolution prediction to individual coastal lagoon systems.},
author = {Carrasco, A. R. and Ferreira, O. and Roelvink, D.},
booktitle = {Earth-Science Reviews},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.11.007},
issn = {00128252},
keywords = {Adaptation,Coastal lagoons,Downscaling,Sea-level rise,Uncertainty},
month = {mar},
pages = {356--368},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Coastal lagoons and rising sea level: A review}},
volume = {154},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Carrivick2016,
abstract = {Glacier outburst floods are sudden releases of large amounts of water from a glacier. They are a pervasive natural hazard worldwide. They have an association with climate primarily via glacier mass balance and their impacts on society partly depend on population pressure and land use. Given the ongoing changes in climate and land use and population distributions there is therefore an urgent need to discriminate the spatio-temporal patterning of glacier outburst floods and their impacts. This study presents data compiled from 20 countries and comprising 1348 glacier floods spanning 10 centuries. Societal impacts were assessed using a relative damage index based on recorded deaths, evacuations, and property and infrastructure destruction and disruption. These floods originated from 332 sites; 70{\%} were from ice-dammed lakes and 36{\%} had recorded societal impact. The number of floods recorded has apparently reduced since the mid-1990s in all major world regions. Two thirds of sites that have produced {\textgreater} 5 floods (n = 32) have floods occurring progressively earlier in the year. Glacier floods have directly caused at least: 7 deaths in Iceland, 393 deaths in the European Alps, 5745 deaths in South America and 6300 deaths in central Asia. Peru, Nepal and India have experienced fewer floods yet higher levels of damage. One in five sites in the European Alps has produced floods that have damaged farmland, destroyed homes and damaged bridges; 10{\%} of sites in South America have produced glacier floods that have killed people and damaged infrastructure; 15{\%} of sites in central Asia have produced floods that have inundated farmland, destroyed homes, damaged roads and damaged infrastructure. Overall, Bhutan and Nepal have the greatest national-level economic consequences of glacier flood impacts. We recommend that accurate, full and standardised monitoring, recording and reporting of glacier floods is essential if spatio-temporal patterns in glacier flood occurrence, magnitude and societal impact are to be better understood. We note that future modelling of the global impact of glacier floods cannot assume that the same trends will continue and will need to consider combining land-use change with probability distributions of geomorphological responses to climate change and to human activity.},
author = {Carrivick, Jonathan L. and Tweed, Fiona S.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.001},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {GLOF,Glacier lake,Hazard,J{\"{o}}kulhlaup,Proglacial,Risk},
month = {sep},
pages = {1--16},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818116301023},
volume = {144},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Casas-Prat2020,
author = {Casas-Prat, Merc{\`{e}} and Wang, Xiaolan L},
doi = {doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015745},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
number = {8},
pages = {e2019JC015745},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Projections of extreme ocean waves in the Arctic and potential implications for coastal inundation and erosion}},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cassou2016,
author = {Cassou, Christophe and Cattiaux, Julien},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2969},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {589--594},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2969 http://10.0.4.14/nclimate2969 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2969{\#}supplementary-information http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2969},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Castebrunet2014a,
abstract = {Abstract. Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960–1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes. Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average. Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20–30{\%}) and interannual variability is projected. These changes are relatively strong compared to changes in snow and meteorological variables. The decrease is amplified in spring and at low altitude. In contrast, an increase in avalanche activity is expected in winter at high altitude because of conditions favourable to wet-snow avalanches earlier in the season. Comparison with the outputs of the deterministic avalanche hazard model MEPRA (Mod{\`{e}}le Expert d'aide {\`{a}} la Pr{\'{e}}vision du Risque d'Avalanche) shows generally consistent results but suggests that, even if the frequency of winters with high avalanche activity is clearly projected to decrease, the decreasing trend may be less strong and smooth than suggested by the statistical analysis based on changes in snowpack characteristics and their links to avalanches observations in the past. This important point for risk assessment pleads for further work focusing on shorter timescales. Finally, the small differences between different climate change scenarios show the robustness of the predicted avalanche activity changes.},
author = {Castebrunet, H. and Eckert, N. and Giraud, G. and Durand, Y. and Morin, S.},
doi = {10.5194/tc-8-1673-2014},
isbn = {1994-0440},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {sep},
number = {5},
pages = {1673--1697},
title = {{Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods}},
url = {https://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1673/2014/},
volume = {8},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Catto2012,
abstract = {Precipitation over the north of Australia mainly falls during the wet season and is associated with the Australian monsoon. Recent studies have shown that precipitation in the north and northwest of Australia during the wet season has increased over the past 50 years. In previous work, daily radiosonde data at a single site (Darwin) were used to identify five distinct wet season regimes, each associated with a characteristic synoptic circulation pattern and rainfall probability distribution. Here the five regimes are used to decompose the 50-year precipitation trend at Darwin from 1957/1958?2007/2008 into two contributions; that due to changes in the regime relative frequency of occurrence, and that due to changes in the within-regime precipitation. Over the entire wet season from September to April, the within-regime precipitation does not change significantly for any of the regimes. However, the relative frequency of occurrence decreases significantly for the driest regimes, and increases significantly for one of the wettest regimes, suggesting that changes in the large-scale circulation are a more important contributor to the precipitation trends than are thermodynamic changes. During December to March, the largest contributions to the total precipitation trend come from changes in all three of the wettest regimes. During November and April, when the average precipitation is lower, there is a large relative contribution to the precipitation trend from the increase in frequency of a wet regime and a decrease in frequency of the dry regimes. This contributes to the significant lengthening of the north Australian wet season.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2012JD017472},
author = {Catto, J L and Jakob, C and Nicholls, N},
doi = {10.1029/2012JD017472},
issn = {01480227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Australia,precipitation,regimes,trends},
month = {may},
pages = {D10102},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The influence of changes in synoptic regimes on north Australian wet season rainfall trends}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017472 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012JD017472},
volume = {117},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Cavanaugh2014,
author = {Cavanaugh, K. C. and Kellner, J. R. and Forde, A. J. and Gruner, D. S. and Parker, J. D. and Rodriguez, W. and Feller, I. C.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1315800111},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {723--727},
title = {{Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1315800111},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Cavelier2017,
abstract = {This perspective paper reports the results of a collaborative survey of French research institutes concerned with environmental issues, which examined the potential for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France. The study is based on a review of existing reports on the market of climate services, and on interviews of 68 climate service providers and users in public and private organizations. Although the study does not allow to provide quantified estimations regarding the present and future size of the market, its results offer new perspectives with implications extending far beyond the sole case of France: first, while the market is still in its infancy, significant opportunities exist in sectors such as flooding risks, and, to a slightly lesser extent, hydro and nuclear energy and viticulture. In addition, the study identifies critical conditions for the uptake in climate services: (1) a coordinated delivery of data, information, expertise and training by public research institutes concerned with climate change and its impacts; (2) the inclusion of adaptation in the regulation and in public and private tenders. Finally, (3) uncertainties in climate projections appear as a major barrier to the uptake of climate services. However, ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction as planned by the COP-21 Paris Agreement contribute to reducing this uncertainties by allowing users to select a subset of climate change projections, avoiding those for which adaptation is most problematic.},
author = {Cavelier, Romain and Borel, Corinne and Charreyron, V{\'{e}}ronique and Chaussade, Marc and {Le Cozannet}, Gon{\'{e}}ri and Morin, Dominique and Ritti, Daniel},
doi = {10.1016/J.CLISER.2017.06.010},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {apr},
pages = {34--40},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Conditions for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880716300747},
volume = {6},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cavicchia,
abstract = {The Mediterranean has been identified as one of the most responsive regions to climate change. It has been conjectured that one of the effects of a warmer climate could be to make the Mediterranean Sea prone to the formation of hurricanes. Already in the present climate regime, however, a few of the numerous low pressure systems that form in the area develop a dynamical evolution similar to the one of tropical cyclones. Even if their spatial extent is generally smaller and the life cycle shorter compared to tropical cyclones, such storms produce severe damage on the highly populated coastal areas surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. This study, based on the analysis of individual realistically simulated storms in homogeneous long-term and high-resolution data from multiple climate change scenarios, shows that the projected effect of climate change on Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones is decreased frequency and a tendency toward a moderate increase of intensity.},
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Cavicchia, Leone and von Storch, Hans and Gualdi, Silvio},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00339.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {7493--7501},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones in Present and Future Climate}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/27/19/jcli-d-14-00339.1.xml http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00339.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Cha2020,
abstract = {This paper assesses published findings on projections of future tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region under climate change scenarios. This assessment also estimates the projected changes of key TC metrics for a 2 °C anthropogenic global warming scenario for the western North Pacific (WNP) following the approach of a WMO Task Team, together with other reported findings for this region. For projections of TC genesis/frequency, most models suggest a reduction of TC frequency, but an increase in the proportion of very intense TCs over the WNP in the future. However, some individual studies project an increase in WNP TC frequency. Most studies agree on a projected increase of WNP TC intensity over the 21st century. All available projections for TC related precipitation in the WNP indicate an increase in TC related precipitation rate in a warmer climate. Anthropogenic warming may also lead to changes in TC prevailing tracks. A further increase in storm surge risk may result from increases in TC intensity. The most confident aspect of forced anthropogenic change in TC inundation risk derives from the highly confident expectation of further sea level rise, which we expect will exacerbate storm inundation risk in coastal regions, assuming all other factors equal.},
author = {Cha, Eun Jeong and Knutson, Thomas R and Lee, Tsz-Cheung and Ying, Ming and Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki},
doi = {10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.04.005},
issn = {2225-6032},
journal = {Tropical Cyclone Research and Review},
keywords = {Climate change,Projections,Tropical cyclones,Typhoon Committee,Western North Pacific},
number = {2},
pages = {75--86},
title = {{Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part II: Future projections}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603220300199},
volume = {9},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Chadwick2019,
abstract = {The time at which climate change signal can be clearly distinguished from noise is known as time of emergence (ToE) and is typically detected by a general circulation model (GCM) signal-to-noise ratio exceeding a certain threshold. ToE is commonly estimated at large scales from GCMs, although management decisions and adaptation strategies are implemented locally. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate ToE for both precipitation and temperature at local scales (i.e., river basin). The methodology considers local climatic conditions and unbiased GCM projections to estimate ToE by using the statistical power to find when the climate significantly differs from the historical one. The method suggests that ToE for temperature already occurred in three Chilean basins (Limar{\'{i}}, Maipo, and Maule). However, in terms of precipitation, an earlier ToE is clearly identified for the Maule basin, indicating that risk assessment and adaptation measures should be implemented first in this basin.},
author = {Chadwick, Cristi{\'{a}}n and Giron{\'{a}}s, Jorge and Vicu{\~{n}}a, Sebasti{\'{a}}n and Meza, Francisco},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-19-0006.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {1635--1647},
title = {{Estimating the Local Time of Emergence of Climatic Variables Using an Unbiased Mapping of GCMs: An Application in Semiarid and Mediterranean Chile}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0006.1},
volume = {20},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chagas2018,
abstract = {The replacement of natural forests with agriculture is generally associated with modifications in the hydrological behavior of a basin. This is particularly notable in the tropics and subtropics. Southern Brazil is a region with extensive agricultural production, forest conservation, and a vast unexplored streamflow data despite substantial rainfall trends observed in recent decades. In this work, we explore trends in the streamflow regime in the majority of the monitored basins in Southern Brazil. Additionally, we evaluate if pristine forested basins and agricultural nonforested basins have significantly different streamflow responses to changes in rainfall. We analyzed annual averages, maxima, minima, and seasonality of a 36-year data set (1975–2010) of 675 rainfall and 140 streamflow gauges. Results reveal that large trends are widespread in Southern Brazil, especially in basins with areas smaller than 10,000 km2. Changes in the rainfall regime did not directly translate into changes in the streamflow regime. Changes in the annual maximum flow of forested basins were not statistically significant even when the annual average and maximum rainfall increased significantly. Correlations between changes in rainfall and streamflow for two indices, namely, duration of low-magnitude events and seasonality, were statistically significant (p {\textless} 0.05) only for agricultural basins. The results indicate a higher propagation of hydrological changes through anthropogenically modified systems, providing evidence that agricultural basins are more sensitive to changes in the rainfall regime.},
author = {Chagas, V. B. P. and Chaffe, P. L. B.},
doi = {10.1029/2018WR022947},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {5986--6004},
title = {{The Role of Land Cover in the Propagation of Rainfall Into Streamflow Trends}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018WR022947},
volume = {54},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Challinor2014,
author = {Challinor, A. J. and Watson, J. and Lobell, D. B. and Howden, S. M. and Smith, D. R. and Chhetri, N.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2153},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {287--291},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2153},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Chan2018b,
abstract = {Many coastal cities are experiencing growing risk to hydrological hazards through the combination of uncontrolled urban development and exposure to natural phenomena linked to climate change, including rising sea levels, intensified storms, and amplified storm surges. This growing risk is particularly acute in Asian coastal mega-cities, many of which have yet to develop adequate adaptation policies to address plausible impacts of climate change. In this analysis, we review how Hong Kong and Singapore, two of the most affluent coastal cities in East Asia, have initiated many flood mitigation strategies policies that have allowed them to reduce the impacts flooding. These strategies, once relying largely on building flood control structures, have now evolved to include holistic flood risk management approaches that include socio-economic factors. Arguably these two success stories provide inspiration for other coastal Asian cities. However, as climate change and uncontrolled development are likely to increase urban flooding in the future, general improvements could be made to improve knowledge transfer: e.g., develop means to work across policy silos and strike compromises between conflicting sectoral responsibilities, and develop long-term integrated strategies using planning tools and practices to address growing risk. While knowledge transfer cannot be direct because of different geographical settings, socio-economic situations, and political situations, we encourage governments to look beyond engineering-based flood control structures as to develop flood governance programs.},
author = {Chan, F K S and Chuah, C Joon and Ziegler, A D and D{\c{a}}browski, M and Varis, O},
doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.217},
issn = {0959-6526},
journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},
keywords = {Climate adaptation,Coastal cities,Flood risk management,Hong Kong and Singapore,Resilience},
pages = {576--589},
title = {{Towards resilient flood risk management for Asian coastal cities: Lessons learned from Hong Kong and Singapore}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618308941},
volume = {187},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chan2012b,
abstract = {Asia?s urbanized mega-deltas are experiencing increased incidences of flooding. Flood risk is increasing due to urban growth, which makes people more vulnerable and threatens economic assets, and due to factors that increase flood hazard, including reduced delta aggradation, subsidence though natural resource extraction, and climate change, including extreme weather events, such as typhoons, and sea level rise. The recent history of flooding in Asia?s deltaic cities and the drivers of that risk have been examined in this article. We give particular attention to the Pearl River Delta, and its cities of Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Shenzhen, important economic centres of Asia. The flood risk is substantial, but flood risk management appear to suffer through a lack of sufficient strategic planning, and the difficulty of defending deltaic cities through traditional engineering approaches alone. Drawing on lessons from flood risk management internationally, we suggest that there are ways forward in developing flood mitigation strategies for deltaic cities in the region, which deserve further exploration.},
annote = {doi: 10.1177/097542531200300103},
author = {Chan, Faith Ka Shun and Mitchell, Gordon and Adekola, Olalekan and McDonald, Adrian},
doi = {10.1177/097542531200300103},
issn = {0975-4253},
journal = {Environment and Urbanization ASIA},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {41--61},
publisher = {SAGE Publications India},
title = {{Flood Risk in Asia's Urban Mega-deltas: Drivers, Impacts and Response}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/097542531200300103},
volume = {3},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Chan2008,
author = {Chan, F. and Barth, J. A. and Lubchenco, J. and Kirincich, A. and Weeks, H. and Peterson, W. T. and Menge, B. A.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1149016},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {feb},
number = {5865},
pages = {920--920},
title = {{Emergence of Anoxia in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1149016},
volume = {319},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Chand2017,
abstract = {The El Ni{\~{n}}o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world1,2,3. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming4,5,6,7,8 will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins9,10,11. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (∼20–40{\%}) during future-climate El Ni{\~{n}}o events compared with present-climate El Ni{\~{n}}o events—and less frequent during future-climate La Ni{\~{n}}a events—around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database12, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Ni{\~{n}}o-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations.},
author = {Chand, Savin S. and Tory, Kevin J. and Ye, Hua and Walsh, Kevin J. E.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3181},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {123--127},
title = {{Projected increase in El Ni{\~{n}}o-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3181},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Chang2017,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Chang, Edmund K M},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0553.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {13},
pages = {4915--4935},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Projected Significant Increase in the Number of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/13/jcli-d-16-0553.1.xml},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Changnon2018,
abstract = {Heavy 30-day snowfall amounts were evaluated to identify spatial and temporal characteristics east of the Rocky Mountains in the United States during the period 1900?2016. An extensive data assessment identified 507 stations for use in this long-term climate study. The top 30-day heavy snowfall amount and the average of the top five 30-day heavy snowfall amounts were examined. Both amounts generally increased with latitude; however, much higher amounts were found downwind of the Great Lakes, at higher elevations, or in locations impacted by topographic features (e.g., Rockies, Black Hills, and Appalachians). When compared with the 1981?2010 average winter snowfall, the top 30-day amount was found to be greater than the winter average in most areas of the eastern United States. The number of stations experiencing a top-five 30-day heavy snowfall period in a winter ranged from 1 to 128 (1959/60), with a greater overall occurrence in the second half of the 117-yr period. Six episodes had 10{\%} or more stations experiencing one of the top five 30-day snowfall amounts, with the February?March 1960 episode impacting 124 stations, and these episodes were associated with large negative 500-hPa height anomalies. The northern Great Plains, Great Lakes, Midwest, and Northeast experienced more top-five periods in the second half of the 117-yr period, whereas most of the southern states experienced top-five periods throughout the study?s time frame. Examining extremes at periods beyond the daily event and less than the season contributes to our knowledge of climate and provides useful information to snow-sensitive sectors.},
author = {Changnon, David},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0217.1},
issn = {1558-8424},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
keywords = {Climate variability,Snow,Snowfall},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {319--331},
title = {{A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of 30-Day Heavy Snowfall Amounts in the Eastern United States, 1900–2016}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0217.1},
volume = {57},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chapman2013,
abstract = {The forthcoming century will see cities exposed to temperature rises from urbanisation as well as greenhouse gas induced radiative forcing. Increasing levels of urban heat will have a direct impact upon the people living in cities in terms of health, but will also have an indirect effect by impacting upon the critical infrastructure networks of the city itself (e.g., ICT, transport and energy). Some infrastructures are more resistant than others, but there is a growing reliance on the energy network to provide the power for all of our future critical infrastructure networks. Unfortunately, the energy network is far from resilient from the effects of urban heat and is set to face a perfect storm of increasing temperatures and loadings as demand increases for air conditioning, refrigeration, an electrified transport network and a high-speed ICT network. The result is that any failure on the energy network could quickly cascade across much of our critical infrastructure. System vulnerabilities will become increasingly apparent as the impacts of climate change begin to manifest and this paper calls for interdisciplinary action outlining the need for high resolution monitoring and modelling of the impact of urban heat on infrastructure.},
author = {Chapman, Lee and Azevedo, Juliana Antunes and Prieto-Lopez, Tatiana},
doi = {10.1016/j.uclim.2013.04.001},
issn = {22120955},
journal = {Urban Climate},
month = {may},
pages = {7--12},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Urban heat {\&} critical infrastructure networks: A viewpoint}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095513000072 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212095513000072},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Chapra2017,
abstract = {Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) have serious adverse effects on human and environmental health. Herein, we developed a modeling framework that predicts the effect of climate change on cyanobacteria concentrations in large reservoirs in the contiguous U.S. The framework, which uses climate change projections from five global circulation models, two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and two cyanobacterial growth scenarios, is unique in coupling climate projections with a hydrologic/water quality network model of the contiguous United States. Thus, it generates both regional and nationwide projections useful as a screening-level assessment of climate impacts on CyanoHAB prevalence as well as potential lost recreation days and associated economic value. Our projections indicate that CyanoHAB concentrations are likely to increase primarily due to water temperature increases tempered by increased nutrient levels resulting from changing demographics and climatic impacts on hydrology that drive n...},
author = {Chapra, Steven C. and Boehlert, Brent and Fant, Charles and Bierman, Victor J. and Henderson, Jim and Mills, David and Mas, Diane M. L. and Rennels, Lisa and Jantarasami, Lesley and Martinich, Jeremy and Strzepek, Kenneth M. and Paerl, Hans W.},
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.7b01498},
issn = {0013-936X},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Technology},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {8933--8943},
publisher = {American Chemical Society},
title = {{Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment}},
url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.7b01498},
volume = {51},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cheal2017,
abstract = {Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over {\textgreater}1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central-southern region where 68{\%} of coral cover was destroyed over {\textgreater}1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid-century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies.},
author = {Cheal, Alistair J. and MacNeil, M. Aaron and Emslie, Michael J. and Sweatman, Hugh},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13593},
isbn = {1354-1013},
issn = {13652486},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {climate change,coral cover,coral reefs,cyclone intensity,cyclones,ecosystem vulnerability,recovery,reef fish,species richness},
number = {4},
pages = {1511--1524},
pmid = {28139035},
title = {{The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change}},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Chen2016b,
author = {Chen, Wei and Chen, Kuo and Kuang, Cuiping and Zhu, David Z. and He, Lulu and Mao, Xiaodan and Liang, Huidi and Song, Honglin},
doi = {10.1016/j.apor.2015.11.002},
issn = {01411187},
journal = {Applied Ocean Research},
month = {jan},
pages = {12--25},
title = {{Influence of sea level rise on saline water intrusion in the Yangtze River Estuary, China}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0141118715001364},
volume = {54},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Chen2019a,
author = {Chen, Xiaoguang and Tian, Guoping and Qin, Zhilong and Bi, Xiang},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0026.1},
issn = {1948-8327},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
month = {oct},
number = {4},
pages = {777--790},
title = {{High Daytime and Nighttime Temperatures Exert Large and Opposing Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in China}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0026.1},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chen2018b,
abstract = {High-resolution imagery can be used to reconstruct former glacier boundaries through the identification of glacial erosional and sedimentary geomorphology. We employed moraine mapping and the accumulation–area ratio method (AAR), in conjunction with Landsat, Google Earth, and SRTM imagery, to reconstruct glacier boundaries and equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) for Mt. Kenya in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and at present. Our results show that the areas of Lewis Glacier and the Tyndall-I glacier system were 0.678 km2 and 0.390 km2, respectively, during the maximum of LIA. Those mean that the both glaciers have shrunken by 87.0{\%} and 88.7{\%}, respectively since the LIA. Area change ratios for each glacier were significantly larger in the period of 2000 through 2015 than the former periods, indicating that glacier recession has accelerated. Continuous ice loss in this region has been driven by rising temperature and fluctuating precipitation. Linear regression data for Lewis glacier show that mass balance sensitivity to dry season temperature was–315 mm w.e./°C, whereas the sensitivity to dry season precipitation was 5.2 mm w.e./mm. Our data also show that the ELA on the western slope of Mt. Kenya rose by 716–816 m from the LGM to the modern era, corresponding to that temperature rose by 5.2°C -6.5°C.},
author = {Chen, An-An and Wang, Ning-Lian and Guo, Zhong-Ming and Wu, Yu-Wei and Wu, Hong-Bo},
doi = {10.1007/s11629-017-4600-z},
issn = {1993-0321},
journal = {Journal of Mountain Science},
number = {6},
pages = {1268--1282},
title = {{Glacier variations and rising temperature in the Mt. Kenya since the Last Glacial Maximum}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-017-4600-z},
volume = {15},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Chen2019,
author = {Chen, Chi-Wen and Tung, Yu-Shiang and Liou, Jun-Jih and Li, Hsin-Chi and Cheng, Chao-Tzuen and Chen, Yung-Ming and Oguchi, Takashi},
doi = {10.1016/j.catena.2018.12.023},
issn = {03418162},
journal = {CATENA},
month = {apr},
pages = {263--277},
title = {{Assessing landslide characteristics in a changing climate in northern Taiwan}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0341816218305599},
volume = {175},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chen2021a,
abstract = {Solar energy is abundant and offers significant potential for future climate change mitigation. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on surface solar radiation in the United States using a set of climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs). Multi-model ensemble mean of GCMs in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show a significant increase in annual mean surface solar radiation over the eastern and southern US. The projected solar brightening is consistent among different future periods and pathways. However, RCMs in North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) and convection-permitting simulations of the climate of North America exhibit a significant decrease in surface solar radiation over large areas of the US. Those conflicting responses between the GCMs and RCMs are evident throughout the year with the greatest disagreement during fall. When scrutinizing the mechanism of solar radiation changes, we find that cloud behavior alone cannot adequately explain the contrasting changes in solar radiation. Instead, if a climate model considers transient aerosols is the key for solar brightening or dimming. Future solar brightening is mainly associated with the declining aerosols that have been implemented in most of the CMIP5 GCMs. In contrast, solar dimming becomes evident because of the greenhouse gas effects in those GCMs and RCMs without considering the aerosol effects. This study highlights the importance of the aerosol effects in solar energy-related climate assessment, and it is necessary to implement the aerosol forcing in regional climate downscaling.},
author = {Chen, Liang},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05498-7},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {665--678},
title = {{Uncertainties in solar radiation assessment in the United States using climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05498-7},
volume = {56},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Chen2020,
abstract = {The continuing growth in energy demand has promoted wind energy development worldwide. As anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will continue to modify the atmospheric circulation and global climate, assessing the impacts of climate change on wind energy is necessary. This study uses high-resolution simulations in the North America downscaling project (NA-CORDEX) to investigate the future change in wind resources over North America. Wind power is projected to decrease over large areas of the western US and East Coast throughout the year. The central US, with the greatest potential for wind energy development, will experience stronger wind variability and significantly increased wind power during some seasons. Wind power shows a significant increase (up to 20{\%}) in the Southern Plains during spring and summer. The Northern Plains and the Midwest may experience slightly increased wind power (within 10{\%}) during winter and spring. The seasonal and spatial patterns in the wind power change are relatively robust among the different emission scenarios, different future periods, and simulations with different spatial resolutions. This study outlines the regions that may benefit from or be negatively impacted by global climate change. Therefore, climate effects should be considered in the future build-out of wind energy resources.},
author = {Chen, Liang},
doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2020.02.090},
issn = {18790682},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
keywords = {Climate change,NA-CORDEX,North America,Wind energy},
month = {jun},
pages = {1428--1438},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Impacts of climate change on wind resources over North America based on NA-CORDEX}},
volume = {153},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Chen2020a,
abstract = {Changes in global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation determine the local water resource, affecting two thirds of global population. The future changes in GLM summer precipitation and the sources of projection uncertainty under four scenarios are investigated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The GLM summer precipitation is projected to increase by 1.76 ± 1.57{\%} (2.54 ± 2.22{\%}), 1.33 ± 1.97{\%} (3.52 ± 3.05{\%}), 0.96 ± 2.04{\%} (3.51 ± 4.97{\%}), and 1.71 ± 2.38{\%} (5.75 ± 5.92{\%}) in the near (long) term under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. The enhancement is caused by thermodynamic responses due to increased moisture, which is partly offset by dynamic responses due to weakened circulation. The uncertainty in GLM precipitation projection is the largest in SSP5–8.5 long-term projection. The uncertainty of submonsoon precipitation projections is larger than that in GLM precipitation. The uncertainty of monsoon precipitation projection arises from the circulation changes, which can be partly explained by model-dependent response to uniform sea surface temperature warming.},
author = {Chen, Ziming and Zhou, Tianjun and Zhang, Lixia and Chen, Xiaolong and Zhang, Wenxia and Jiang, Jie},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086902},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP6,global monsoon,inter-model uncertainty,precipitation projection,thermodynamic and dynamic effect},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {e2019GL086902},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes in CMIP6 Projections}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086902},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cheng2015,
abstract = {Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design in a Changing Climate},
author = {Cheng, Linyin and AghaKouchak, Amir},
doi = {10.1038/srep07093},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Climate sciences,Hydrology},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {7093},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design in a Changing Climate}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep07093},
volume = {4},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Cheng2018,
abstract = {Background: A heatwave can be a devastating natural disaster to human health, and elderly people are particularly vulnerable. With the continuing rise in earth's surface temperature alongside the world's aging population, research on the mortality burden of heatwave for the older population remains relatively sparse. The potential magnitude of benefits of averting such deaths may be considerable. Objectives: This paper examined the short-term mortality displacement (or “harvesting”) of heatwave, characterized the heatwave-mortality relationship, and estimated death burden and health costs attributable to heatwave among the elderly in Australia. Methods: We collected daily data on the temperature and deaths of people aged ≥75 years in the five largest cities of Australia (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide), totaling 368,767 deaths in different periods between 1988 and 2011. A total of 15-tiered heatwave definitions, based on intensity (95th to 99th percentiles of temperature distribution) and duration (two or more consecutive days), were used to quantify heatwave effects, using time-series regression and random-effects meta-analysis. We calculated attributable deaths for each city and by different types of heatwave. Potential economic benefits in monetary terms were also estimated, considering that heat-related deaths are avoidable. Results: Among the Australian elderly population, we found significant associations between heatwave and deaths, with raised mortality immediately in the first few days followed by lower-than-expected mortality. In general, heatwave was associated with an average death increase of 28{\%} (95{\%} confidence interval: 15{\%} to 42{\%}), and greater increases were mostly observed for more intense heatwaves across multiple megacities. During the study period, there were dozens to hundreds of deaths attributable to heatwave for each city, equating to an economic loss of several million Australian dollars every year. Although the estimated attributable deaths varied by heatwave intensity and duration, the pattern was not consistent across cities. Conclusions: Heatwave caused harvesting effects on mortality in the elderly population of Australia, and contributed to a substantial amount of death burden and indirect financial costs. To lessen the health impacts of heatwave in the affected regions, effective heatwave early warning systems and interventions targeted at the elderly population could be beneficial, both now and in the future.},
author = {Cheng, Jian and Xu, Zhiwei and Bambrick, Hilary and Su, Hong and Tong, Shilu and Hu, Wenbiao},
doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2018.03.041},
isbn = {1873-6750 0160-4120},
issn = {01604120},
journal = {Environment International},
keywords = {Australia,Burden,Elderly,Heatwave,Mortality},
month = {jun},
pages = {334--342},
title = {{Heatwave and elderly mortality: An evaluation of death burden and health costs considering short-term mortality displacement}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0160412017321980},
volume = {115},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Cheong2018,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2018 Royal Meteorological Society. Regional assessments of trends in climate extremes are necessary for countries to make informed decisions about adaptation strategies and to put these changes into a global context. A workshop bringing together several Southeast Asian countries has delivered a new set of daily weather observations suitable to analyse the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes between 1972 and 2010. The use of a consistent and widely tested methodology in this study allows a direct comparison with results from other parts of the world. Trends in a range of climate extremes indices were assessed focusing on spatial variation in these trends. For most locations temperature trends obtained in this study appear broadly consistent with previous assessments; for some locations stronger trends have been detected through the inclusion of new data. In contrast to earlier studies, evidence of trends in precipitation extremes is emerging, with significant increasing trends in both regional and subregional data. In addition, large correlations between regional rainfall extremes and large-scale features such as El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole were identified. Finally, the observed trends are compared with a regional climate model reconstruction of the historical period. It was found that the model captures very well the trends and spatial variation of temperature extremes across the region, albeit with an underestimation of the more extreme indices. In contrast, the trends in precipitation extremes are largely overestimated, particularly in the western side of Southeast Asia.},
author = {Cheong, W. K. and Timbal, B. and Golding, N. and Sirabaha, S. and Kwan, K. F. and Cinco, T. A. and Archevarahuprok, B. and Vo, V. H. and Gunawan, D. and Han, S.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5479},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
number = {7},
pages = {3013--3027},
title = {{Observed and modelled temperature and precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia from 1972 to 2010}},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Cheung2020,
abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have occurred in all ocean basins with severe negative impacts on coastal and ocean ecosystems. The northeast Pacific 2013–2015 MHW in particular received major societal concerns. Yet, our knowledge about how MHWs impact fish stocks is limited. Here, we combine outputs from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model with a fish impact model to simulate responses of major northeast Pacific fish stocks to MHWs. We show that MHWs cause biomass decrease and shifts in biogeography of fish stocks that are at least four times faster and bigger in magnitude than the effects of decadal-scale mean changes throughout the 21st century. With MHWs, we project a doubling of impact levels by 2050 amongst the most important fisheries species over previous assessments that focus only on long-term climate change. Our results underscore the additional challenges from MHWs for fisheries and their management under climate change.},
author = {Cheung, William W. L. and Fr{\"{o}}licher, Thomas L.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-63650-z},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Ecology,Environmental sciences,Ocean sciences},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {6678},
pmid = {32317685},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{Marine heatwaves exacerbate climate change impacts for fisheries in the northeast Pacific}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63650-z http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63650-z},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Chhetri2019,
abstract = {Background: Climate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation. Methods: Cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997-2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020-2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data ({\~{}} 6 × 10 km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s. Results: Precipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct.-Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain ({\textgreater}90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16{\%} by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55-136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10-20{\%} across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models. Discussion: If new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010-2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.},
author = {Chhetri, Bimal K. and Galanis, Eleni and Sobie, Stephen and Brubacher, Jordan and Balshaw, Robert and Otterstatter, Michael and Mak, Sunny and Lem, Marcus and Lysyshyn, Mark and Murdock, Trevor and Fleury, Manon and Zickfeld, Kirsten and Zubel, Mark and Clarkson, Len and Takaro, Tim K.},
doi = {10.1186/s12940-019-0550-y},
issn = {1476069X},
journal = {Environmental Health},
keywords = {Climate change,Downscaled climate projections,Extreme precipitation,Future health impact,Waterborne disease},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {116},
pmid = {31888648},
publisher = {BioMed Central Ltd.},
title = {{Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada}},
url = {https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-019-0550-y},
volume = {18},
year = {2019}
}
@inproceedings{Chiew2017,
address = {Hobart, TAS, Australia},
author = {Chiew, F. H. S. and Zheng, H. and Potter, N. J. and Ekstrom, M. and Grose, M. R. and Kirono, D. G. C. and Zhang, L. and Vaze, J.},
booktitle = {MODSIM2017, 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation},
editor = {Syme, G. and MacDonald, D. Hatton and Fulton, B. and Piantadosi, J.},
pages = {1745--1751},
publisher = {Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand},
title = {{Future runoff projections for Australia and science challenges in producing next generation projections}},
url = {https://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2017/L16/chiew.pdf},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Chinowsky2019,
abstract = {The rail network in the US is the largest network within any single country at 140,000 miles of Class 1 tracks. The network is predominantly focused on freight traffic with the exception of key passenger corridors along the eastern seaboard and in the upper Midwest. This extensive rail network enhances connectivity, but also raises the question of potential vulnerability to climate changes over the next century. Specifically, projected changes in temperature highlight the vulnerability of tracks to temperature increases and the accompanying issue of track expansion, which under current operating policies can lead to train delays, and in the most extreme cases can lead to derailments. In this study, the issue of potential impacts to the rail network are analyzed in terms of the cost of potential increases in delays that will occur due to responses of train network operators to temperature increases. Impacts analyzed using a range of climate models indicate that the rail network may incur an increase in delay-minute costs over typical historic costs of between {\$}25 and {\$}45 billion cumulatively through 2100 under a low greenhouse gas emissions future, and between {\$}35 and {\$}60 billion under a high emission scenario. However, these costs could be reduced by up to an order of magnitude if current sensor technologies are incorporated into tracks, coupled with refinements to current speed reduction policies that better leverage temperature monitoring capabilities.},
author = {Chinowsky, Paul and Helman, Jacob and Gulati, Sahil and Neumann, James and Martinich, Jeremy},
doi = {10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.05.007},
issn = {0967070X},
journal = {Transport Policy},
month = {mar},
pages = {183--191},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Impacts of climate change on operation of the US rail network}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X16308198?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0967070X16308198},
volume = {75},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chinowsky2012,
author = {Chinowsky, Paul and Arndt, Channing},
doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00673.x},
issn = {13636669},
journal = {Review of Development Economics},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {448--462},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{Climate Change and Roads: A Dynamic Stressor-Response Model}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00673.x},
volume = {16},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Cho2016,
author = {Cho, Changrae and Li, Rong and Wang, SY and Yoon, Jin-Ho and Gillies, Robert R.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2613-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {797--805},
title = {{Anthropogenic footprint of climate change in the June 2013 northern India flood}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2613-2 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2613-2},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Choi2019,
author = {Choi, Woosuk and Ho, Chang-Hoi and Kim, Jinwon and Chan, Johnny C. L.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04647-x},
isbn = {0123456789},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Near-future,Tropical cyclone,Western North Pacific,el ni{\~{n}}o,near-future prediction,north,pacific,pacific warming,sea surface temperature,southern oscillation,tropical cyclone,western north pacific},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1341--1356},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Near-future tropical cyclone predictions in the western North Pacific: fewer tropical storms but more typhoons}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-04647-x},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chou2014,
abstract = {Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.},
author = {Chou, Sin Chan and Lyra, Andr{\'{e}} and Mour{\~{a}}o, Caroline and Dereczynski, Claudine and Pilotto, Isabel and Gomes, Jorge and Bustamante, Josiane and Tavares, Priscila and Silva, Adan and Rodrigues, Daniela and Campos, Diego and Chagas, Diego and Sueiro, Gustavo and Siqueira, Gracielle and Marengo, Jos{\'{e}}},
doi = {10.4236/ajcc.2014.35043},
issn = {2167-9495},
journal = {American Journal of Climate Change},
number = {5},
pages = {512--527},
title = {{Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling Scenarios}},
url = {http://www.scirp.org/journal/doi.aspx?DOI=10.4236/ajcc.2014.35043},
volume = {3},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Chow2016a,
abstract = {Urban greenery is a favoured approach applied towards reducing urban warmth and climate discomfort, but ascertaining its measured and perceived effectiveness in tropical climates is relatively understudied. To this end, we investigated microclimate differences within an urban park (the Singapore Botanic Gardens) to assess if variations in plot-scale land cover affect both objective (measured) and subjective (surveyed) microclimate data. Over two monsoonal seasons, we obtained data from four distinct sites-a tropical rainforest stand, a palm tree valley, a water-body feature, and the park visitors' centre. Measured climate data (e.g. air temperature, vapour pressure, wind velocity and globe temperatures) were used to derive mean radiant temperature Tmrt and three thermal comfort indices (e.g. temperature-humidity index THI, physiological equivalent temperature PET, and wet-bulb globe temperature WBGT). Concurrent to these measurements, we also surveyed park users (n = 1573) for perceived microclimate sensations and preferences in thermal, humidity, wind and sun exposure, as well as their overall assessment of climate comfort/discomfort. The results indicate significant differences in both measured and perceived microclimates over different sites and seasons, with (i) selected heat stress thresholds based on thermal comfort indices exceeded at several sites, and (ii) visitors perceived generally hot, humid and low-wind conditions throughout. Variations in respondent acclimatisation to tropical climates are observed between correlations of WBGT and some sensation votes, with apparently stronger correlations with more acclimated respondents. While humidity was voted as the most uncomfortable climate variable across all sites, a large majority of respondents felt comfortable climate conditions throughout. Present results confirm that vegetation canopy characteristics affecting wind and sun exposure appear to be important factors in outdoor thermal comfort. Lastly, we suggest that future tropical outdoor thermal comfort studies consider the critical aspects of site humidity and wind to discern comfort/discomfort levels.},
author = {Chow, Winston T.L. and Akbar, Siti Nur Assyakirin Binte Ali and Heng, Su Li and Roth, Matthias},
doi = {10.1016/j.ufug.2016.01.010},
issn = {16188667},
journal = {Urban Forestry {\&} Urban Greening},
keywords = {Outdoor thermal comfort,Tropical microclimate,Urban parks},
pages = {62--75},
publisher = {Elsevier GmbH},
title = {{Assessment of measured and perceived microclimates within a tropical urban forest}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1618866716000108},
volume = {16},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Christel2018,
abstract = {Seasonal to decadal climate predictions have the potential to inform different sectors in adapting their short to medium term practices and plans to climate variability and change. The data these predictions generate, however, is still not readily usable, nor widely used in decision-making. This paper addresses two key challenges: a domain challenge pertaining to an emerging climate services market, where users, tasks and data may be unknown; and an informational challenge pertaining to the interpretation, use and adoption of novel and complex scientific data. The paper provides insights into the contributions design can offer to the development of climate services. We illustrate the key steps and share the main lessons learnt from our experience in the creation of Project Ukko (http://project-ukko.net), a fully working climate services prototype developed within the European project EUPORIAS. To address the domain challenge in climate services, extensive engagement with science and industry stakeholders was required. To address the informational challenge, we applied visualisation techniques that can help users to interpret and utilise the information as simply and quickly as possible. Fostering interdisciplinary teams of design researchers, climate scientists and communication specialists brought a wide range of expertise and competences in all stages of climate services development. Specifically, the project recognised the role of users in co-designing the product. This helped to improve the usability of climate predictions, tailor climate information to answer actual needs of users, better communicate uncertainty, and bridge the gap between state-of-the-art climate predictions and users' readiness to apply this novel information.},
author = {Christel, Isadora and Hemment, Drew and Bojovic, Dragana and Cucchietti, Fernando and Calvo, Luz and Stefaner, Moritz},
doi = {10.1016/J.CLISER.2017.06.002},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {jan},
pages = {111--121},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Introducing design in the development of effective climate services}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880716300814},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Christensen2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Christensen, J.H. and {Krishna Kumar}, K. and Aldrian, E. and An, S.-I. and Cavalcanti, I.F.A. and de Castro, M. and Dong, W. and Goswami, P. and Hall, A. and Kanyanga, J.K. and Kitoh, A. and Kossin, J. and Lau, N.-C. and Renwick, J. and Stephenson, D.B. and Xie, S.-P. and Zhou, T.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028},
editor = {Stocker, T F and Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {1217--1308},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Christianson2019,
abstract = {This paper presents results of a study which examined how a mandatory wildfire evacuation affected members of Whitefish Lake First Nation 459, in Alberta, Canada. A qualitative case study approach was used, and semi-structured interviews were completed with 45 band members to learn about their evacuation experiences during the wildfire evacuation in May 2011 and explore the factors that complicated the evacuation process and put further strain on the evacuees and First Nation. This evacuation caused considerable distress for evacuees and had negative effects for the First Nation. Factors that affected evacuation experiences included: (1) transportation issues compounded by cultural land-use activities, (2) fear of home loss compounded by existing housing shortages, (3) information and lack of media interest, (4) language, (5) poverty, (6) large multi-generational families, (7) health concerns, and (8) reimbursement of evacuation-related expenses to the community. An overarching factor that affected the entire evacuation was jurisdiction. Based on these findings, recommendations are provided for emergency managers on improving wildfire evacuation experiences for Indigenous peoples.},
author = {Christianson, Amy Cardinal and McGee, Tara K.},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-018-3556-9},
issn = {15730840},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
keywords = {Canada,Evacuation,First Nation,Health,Natural hazard,Wildfire},
month = {aug},
number = {1},
pages = {9--29},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Wildfire evacuation experiences of band members of Whitefish Lake First Nation 459, Alberta, Canada}},
volume = {98},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Chun2018,
abstract = {The objectives of this study were to assess the climate change impacts on sea-level rise (SLR) and freshwater recharge rates and to investigate these SLR and freshwater recharge rates on seawater intrusion in coastal groundwater systems through the Saturated-Unsaturated Transport (SUTRA) model. The Gunsan tide gauge station data were used to project SLR based on polynomial regressions. Freshwater recharge rates were assumed as 10{\%} of the projected annual precipitation under climate change. The Byeonsan2 groundwater monitoring well for seawater intrusion was selected for the study. A total of 15 scenarios, including the baseline period (2005–2015), were made based on SLR projections and estimated freshwater recharge rates. The changes in salinity relative to the baseline at the monitoring well for each scenario were investigated through the SUTRA model. From the scenario of 0.57 m SLR with a freshwater recharge rate of 0.0058 kg s−1, the largest salinity increase (40.3{\%}) was simulated. We concluded that this study may provide a better understanding of the climate change impacts on seawater intrusion by considering both SLR and freshwater recharge rates.},
author = {Chun, Jong and Lim, Changmook and Kim, Daeha and Kim, Jin},
doi = {10.3390/w10040357},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {SUTRA,freshwater recharge rate,level rise,sea,seawater intrusion},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {357},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Assessing Impacts of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Seawater Intrusion in a Coastal Aquifer}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/4/357},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ciabatta2016,
abstract = {Landslides are frequent and widespread geomorphological phenomena causing loss of human life and damage to property. The main tool for assessing landslide risk relies on rainfall thresholds and thus, many countries established early warning systems aimed to landslide hazard assessment. The Umbria Region Civil Protection Centre developed an operational early warning system for landslide risk assessment, named PRESSCA, based on the soil saturation conditions to identify rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, currently used by the Civil Protection operators for the day-by-day landslide hazard assessment, provided satisfactory results with more than 86{\%} of the landslides events correctly identified during the period 1990–2013. In this study, the PRESSCA system was employed for the assessment of climate change impact on landslide hazard in Central Italy. The outputs of five different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were downscaled and weather generators were used for obtaining hourly rainfall and temperature time series from daily GCMs projection. Then, PRESSCA system was employed to estimate the number of landslide occurrence per year. By comparing results obtained for three different periods (1990–2013 (baseline), 2040–2069 and 2070–2099), for the Umbria territory a general increase in events occurrence was expected (up to more than 40{\%}) in the future period, mainly during the winter season. The results also revealed that the effect of climate change on landslides was not straightforward to identify and the close interaction between rainfall magnitude/intensity, temperature and soil moisture should be analysed in depth. Overall, soil moisture was projected to decrease throughout the year but during the wet season the variations with respect to the present period were very small. Specifically, it was found that during the warm-dry season, due to the strong decrease of soil moisture, even for a sensible increase in rainfall intensity, the landslide occurrence was unchanged. Conversely, during the cold-wet season, the number of landslide events increased considerably if a positive variation in rainfall amount, more significant than rainfall intensity, was coupled with small negative variations in soil moisture.},
author = {Ciabatta, L. and Camici, S. and Brocca, L. and Ponziani, F. and Stelluti, M. and Berni, N. and Moramarco, T.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.007},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Climate change,Early warning system,Landslide,Rainfall,Soil moisture},
month = {oct},
pages = {285--295},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Assessing the impact of climate-change scenarios on landslide occurrence in Umbria Region, Italy}},
volume = {541},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ciais2005a,
author = {Ciais, Ph. and Reichstein, M and Viovy, N and Granier, A and Og{\'{e}}e, J and Allard, V and Aubinet, M and Buchmann, N and Bernhofer, Chr. and Carrara, A and Chevallier, F and {De Noblet}, N and Friend, A D and Friedlingstein, P and Gr{\"{u}}nwald, T and Heinesch, B and Keronen, P and Knohl, A and Krinner, G and Loustau, D and Manca, G and Matteucci, G and Miglietta, F and Ourcival, J M and Papale, D and Pilegaard, K and Rambal, S and Seufert, G and Soussana, J F and Sanz, M J and Schulze, E D and Vesala, T and Valentini, R},
doi = {10.1038/nature03972},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {sep},
number = {7058},
pages = {529--533},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature03972 http://10.0.4.14/nature03972 https://www.nature.com/articles/nature03972{\#}supplementary-information http://www.nature.com/articles/nature03972},
volume = {437},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Cinco2016,
abstract = {An analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) data from 1951 to 2013 in the Philippines revealed that an average of 19.4 TCs enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) every year and nine TCs cross the country. Time series analysis of the TC datasets shows no significant trends in the annual number of TCs in PAR but a slightly decreasing trend in the number of landfalling TCs in the Philippines, particularly in the last two decades. However, while the analysis shows fewer typhoons (above 118 kph), more extreme TCs (above 150 kph) have affected the Philippines. The study also confirms that the Northern island of Luzon is most frequently hit by TCs, and that TC-associated rainfall is greatest in this region compared to the southernmost part of the country. The impact of TCs shows a consistently increasing trend in economic losses and damages. Further understanding of past and future trends of TC activity in the Western North Pacific Basin, and the PAR, including the impacts associated with them, will provide valuable insights for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {ISSN 0182-0745},
author = {Cinco, Thelma A. and de Guzman, Rosalina G. and Ortiz, Andrea Monica D. and Delfino, Rafaela Jane P. and Lasco, Rodel D. and Hilario, Flaviana D. and Juanillo, Edna L. and Barba, Rose and Ares, Emma D.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4659},
eprint = {ISSN 0182-0745},
isbn = {9789820001756},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Philippines,climatology,disaster,normalized cost of damages,tropical cyclones,typhoons},
number = {14},
pages = {4638--4650},
pmid = {12880789},
title = {{Observed trends and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Philippines}},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Clarke2018,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Clarke, Leon and Nichols, Leah and Vallario, Robert and Hejazi, Mohamad and Horing, Jil and Janetos, Anthony C. and Mach, Katharine and Mastrandrea, Michael and Orr, Marilee and Preston, Benjamin L and Reed, Patrick and Sands, Ronald D. and White, Dave D.},
booktitle = {Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II},
chapter = {17},
doi = {10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH17},
editor = {Reidmiller, D.R. and Avery, C.W. and Easterling, D.R. and Kunkel, K.E. and Lewis, K.L.M. and Maycock, T.K. and Stewart, B.C.},
pages = {638--668},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Clarke2019a,
abstract = {Despite the importance of prescribed burning in contemporary fire management, there is little understanding of how climate change will influence the weather conditions under which it is deployed. We provide quantitative estimates of potential changes in the number of prescribed burning days in coastal NSW in south-eastern Australia, a fire-prone area dominated by dry sclerophyll forests. Burning days are calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble using three definitions of suitable weather conditions based on: a literature search (Literature), actual weather observed during recorded prescribed burns (Observed) and operational guidelines (Operational). Contrary to some claims, evidence for a decrease in prescribed burning days under projected future climates is weak. We found a complex pattern of changes, with the potential for substantial and widespread increases in the current burning seasons of autumn (March-May) and spring (August-October). Projected changes were particularly uncertain in northern NSW, spanning substantial increases and decreases during autumn. The magnitude of projected changes in the frequency of burning days was highly sensitive to which definition of suitable weather conditions was used, with a relatively small change for the Operational definition (+0.3 to +1.9 days per year across the study area) and larger ranges for the Observed (+0.2 to +7.9 days) and Literature (+1.7 to +6.2 days) definitions. Interannual variability in the number of burning days is projected to increase slightly under projected climate change. Our study highlights the need for a better understanding of the weather conditions required for safe and effective prescribed burning. Our analysis provides practitioners with quantitative information to assess their exposure to a range of potential changes in the frequency, seasonality and variability of prescribed burning weather conditions.},
author = {Clarke, Hamish and Tran, Bruce and Boer, Matthias M and Price, Owen and Kenny, Belinda and Bradstock, Ross},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.005},
issn = {01681923},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
keywords = {Burn window,Fire weather,Global warming,Hazard reduction,Prescribed fire},
month = {jun},
pages = {148--157},
title = {{Climate change effects on the frequency, seasonality and interannual variability of suitable prescribed burning weather conditions in south-eastern Australia}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192319301091 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168192319301091},
volume = {271},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Clilverd2019,
abstract = {Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands, which is a critical driver of freshwater ecosystems. To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, we present a 50‐year (1967–2016) analysis of hydrologic records in 23 unregulated streams across the five largest Hawaiian Islands. For each stream, flow was separated into direct run‐off and baseflow and high‐ and low‐flow statistics (i.e., Q10 and Q90) with ecologically important hydrologic indices (e.g., frequency of flooding and low flow duration) derived. Using Mann–Kendall tests with a running trend analysis, we determined the persistence of streamflow trends through time. We analysed native stream fauna from {\~{}}400 sites, sampled from 1992 to 2007, to assess species richness among islands and streams. Declines in streamflow metrics indicated a general drying across the islands. In particular, significant declines in low flow conditions (baseflows), were experienced in 57{\%} of streams, compared with a significant decline in storm flow conditions for 22{\%} of streams. The running trend analysis indicated that many of the significant downward trends were not persistent through time but were only significant if recent decades (1987–2016) were included, with an average decline in baseflow and run‐off of 10.90{\%} and 8.28{\%} per decade, respectively. Streams that supported higher native species diversity were associated with moderate discharge and baseflow index, short duration of low flows, and negligible downward trends in flow. A significant decline in dry season flows (May–October) has led to an increase in the number of no‐flow days in drier areas, indicating that more streams may become intermittent, which has important implications for mauka to makai (mountain to ocean) hydrological connectivity and management of Hawai'i's native migratory freshwater fauna.},
author = {Clilverd, Hannah M. and Tsang, Yin-Phan and Infante, Dana M. and Lynch, Abigail J. and Strauch, Ayron M.},
doi = {10.1002/hyp.13356},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
number = {5},
pages = {699--719},
title = {{Long-term streamflow trends in Hawai'i and implications for native stream fauna}},
volume = {33},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Cloutier2017,
abstract = {Canada's landmass is the second largest in the World and spans approximately 10 million km2 from about latitude 41°40 at Pelee Island in southern Ontario to the North Pole and from longitude 140°W in Yukon to about 53°W in Newfoundland. For these reasons, Canada consists of many climate regions (Fig. 3.1) including humid regions like Atlantic Canada and the Pacific Coast, but also arctic regions underlain by permafrost like the Arctic mountains and fjords in the north. Figure 3.1 Canadian Climate regions. NF{\&}L: Newfoundland and Labrador; N.B.:New-Brunswick; N.S.: Nova Scotia; P.E.I: Prince-Edward Island; Saskat.: Saskatchewan (modified from Environment Canada, "2014).},
address = {London, UK},
author = {Cloutier, C. and Locat, J. and Geertsema, M. and Jakob, M. and Schnorbus, M.},
booktitle = {Slope Safety Preparedness for Impact of Climate Change},
doi = {10.1201/9781315387789},
edition = {1st},
editor = {Ho, K. and Lacasse, S. and Picarelli, L},
isbn = {9781315387789},
pages = {34},
publisher = {CRC Press},
title = {{Potential impacts of climate change on landslides occurrence in Canada}},
url = {https://www.routledge.com/Slope-Safety-Preparedness-for-Impact-of-Climate-Change/Ho-Lacasse-Picarelli/p/book/9780367885533},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Coe2018,
abstract = {In the USA, climate change is expected to have an adverse impact on slope stability in Alaska. However, to date, there has been limited work done in Alaska to assess if changes in slope stability are occurring. To address this issue, we used 30-m Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2016 to establish an inventory of 24 rock avalanches in a 5000-km2 area of Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve in southeast Alaska. A search of available earthquake catalogs revealed that none of the avalanches were triggered by earthquakes. Analyses of rock-avalanche magnitude, mobility, and frequency reveal a cluster of large (areas ranging from 5.5 to 22.2 km2), highly mobile (height/length OpenSPiltSPi 0.3) rock avalanches that occurred from June 2012 through June 2016 (near the end of the 33-year period of record). These rock avalanches began about 2 years after the long-term trend in mean annual maximum air temperature may have exceeded 0 °C. Possibly more important, most of these rock avalanches occurred during a multiple-year period of record-breaking warm winter and spring air temperatures. These observations suggested to us that rock avalanches in the study area may be becoming larger because of rock-permafrost degradation. However, other factors, such as accumulating elastic strain, glacial thinning, and increased precipitation, may also play an important role in preconditioning slopes for failure during periods of warm temperatures.},
author = {Coe, Jeffrey A. and Bessette-Kirton, Erin K. and Geertsema, Marten},
doi = {10.1007/s10346-017-0879-7},
issn = {16125118},
journal = {Landslides},
keywords = {Air temperature,Alaska,Climate change,Elastic strain,Frequency,Glacier,Hazard,Landsat,Landslide,Magnitude,Mobility,Permafrost,Probability,Rock avalanche},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {393--407},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{Increasing rock-avalanche size and mobility in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska detected from 1984 to 2016 Landsat imagery}},
volume = {15},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Coe2016,
address = {London, UK},
author = {Coe, Jeffrey A.},
booktitle = {Slope Safety Preparedness for Impact of Climate Change},
doi = {10.1201/9781315387789-16},
edition = {1st},
editor = {Ho, K. and Lacasse, S. and Picarelli, L},
isbn = {9781315387789},
month = {dec},
pages = {479--523},
publisher = {CRC Press},
title = {{Landslide Hazards and Climate Change: A Perspective from the United States}},
url = {https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/landslide-hazards-climate-change-perspective-united-states-jeffrey-coe/e/10.1201/9781315387789-14},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Coffel2018b,
abstract = {As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100–250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world's population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150–750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today's most severe heat waves by 2070–2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.},
annote = {Cited By :3
Export Date: 24 July 2018},
author = {Coffel, Ethan D and Horton, Radley M and de Sherbinin, Alex},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,climate i,climate impacts,heat stress,heat waves,population vulnerability},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {014001},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=1/a=014001?key=crossref.1628e439fe93adb84839f0550336785b},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Coffel2017,
author = {Coffel, Ethan D. and Thompson, Terence R. and Horton, Radley M.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {sep},
number = {2},
pages = {381--388},
title = {{The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2018-9},
volume = {144},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cohen2019a,
author = {Cohen, J and Zhang, X and Francis, J and Jung, T and Kwok, R and Overland, J and Ballinger, T J and Bhatt, U S and Chen, H W and Coumou, D and Feldstein, S. and Gu, H. and Handorf, D. and Henderson, G. and Ionita, M. and Kretschmer, M. and Laliberte, F. and Lee, S. and Linderholm, H. W. and Maslowski, W. and Peings, Y. and Pfeiffer, K. and Rigor, I. and Semmler, T. and Stroeve, J. and Taylor, P. C. and Vavrus, S. and Vihma, T. and Wang, S. and Wendisch, M. and Wu, Y. and Yoon, J.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {20--29},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0662-y},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Collins2019,
author = {Collins, M. and Sutherland, M. and Bouwer, L. and Cheong, S.-M. and Fr{\"{o}}licher, T. and Combes, H. Jacot Des and Roxy, M. Koll and Losada, I. and McInnes, K. and Ratter, B. and Rivera-Arriaga, E. and Susanto, R.D. and Swingedouw, D. and {L. Tibig}},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {3--63},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Colombani2016,
author = {Colombani, N. and Osti, A. and Volta, G. and Mastrocicco, M.},
doi = {10.1007/s11269-016-1292-z},
issn = {0920-4741},
journal = {Water Resources Management},
month = {may},
number = {7},
pages = {2483--2496},
title = {{Impact of Climate Change on Salinization of Coastal Water Resources}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-016-1292-z},
volume = {30},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Colonia2017,
abstract = {Global warming causes rapid shrinking of mountain glaciers. New lakes can, thus, form in the future where overdeepenings in the beds of still-existing glaciers are becoming exposed. Such new lakes can be amplifiers of natural hazards to downstream populations, but also constitute tourist attractions, offer new potential for hydropower, and may be of interest for water management. Identification of sites where future lakes will possibly form is, therefore, an essential step to initiate early planning of measures for risk reduction and sustainable use as part of adaptation strategies with respect to impacts from climate change. In order to establish a corresponding knowledge base, a systematic inventory of glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes was compiled for the still glacierized parts of the Peruvian Andes using the 2003-2010 glacier outlines from the national glacier inventory and the SRTM DEM from the year 2000. The resulting inventory contains 201 sites with overdeepened glacier beds {\textgreater}1 ha (104 m2) where notable future lakes could form, representing a total volume of about 260 million m3. A rough classification was assigned for the most likely formation time of the possible new lakes. Such inventory information sets the stage for analyzing sustainable use and hazard/risk for specific basins or regions.},
author = {Colonia, Daniel and Torres, Judith and Haeberli, Wilfried and Schauwecker, Simone and Braendle, Eliane and Giraldez, Claudia and Cochachin, Alejo},
doi = {10.3390/w9050336},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {Climatic change,Future glacier lake,Glacier retreat,Outburst flood,Potential hazard},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {336},
title = {{Compiling an Inventory of Glacier-Bed Overdeepenings and Potential New Lakes in De-Glaciating Areas of the Peruvian Andes: Approach, First Results, and Perspectives for Adaptation to Climate Change}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/5/336},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Comte2013,
author = {Comte, Lise and Grenouillet, Ga{\"{e}}l},
doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00282.x},
issn = {09067590},
journal = {Ecography},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1236--1246},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Do stream fish track climate change? Assessing distribution shifts in recent decades}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00282.x},
volume = {36},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Contador2014,
author = {Contador, Tamara and Kennedy, James and Ojeda, Jaime and Feinsinger, Peter and Rozzi, Ricardo},
doi = {10.4067/S0717-92002014000300018},
file = {::},
issn = {0717-9200},
journal = {Bosque (Valdivia)},
number = {3},
pages = {429--437},
publisher = {Universidad Austral de Chile},
title = {{Ciclos de vida de insectos dulceacu{\'{i}}colas y cambio clim{\'{a}}tico global en la ecorregi{\'{o}}n subant{\'{a}}rtica de Magallanes: investigaciones ecol{\'{o}}gicas a largo plazo en el Parque Etnobot{\'{a}}nico Omora, Reserva de Biosfera Cabo de Hornos (55°S)}},
url = {http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci{\_}arttext{\&}pid=S0717-92002014000300018{\&}lng=en{\&}nrm=iso{\&}tlng=en},
volume = {35},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Contosta2020,
abstract = {Winter is often understudied in ecosystem sciences and viewed as a burden for human systems and infrastructure. However, the importance of winter in regulating ecological processes and shaping human communities has emerged as a topic of great interest, particularly in areas that experience seasonal snow cover. Traditional seasonal definitions may not fully represent below freezing winters and snow accumulation that have historically characterized these areas. Here we: (1) propose the concept of 'frigid winter' to address longstanding problems with traditional delineations of winter; and (2) define frigid winter as a period of sustained temperatures below freezing and snow accumulation that together regulate ecological processes and their services. We explore this definition and the changes occurring within it using 100 years of meteorological data from northeastern North America. Trend analysis demonstrates that frigid winters have shortened by ∼3 weeks over the last century, that cold, snowy conditions have become more intermittent, and that the choice of winter delineation (astronomical, meteorological, hibernal, or frigid) influences the apparent rate at which winter conditions disappear.},
author = {Contosta, Alexandra R. and Casson, Nora J. and Nelson, Sarah J. and Garlick, Sarah},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab54f3},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,frigid winter,seasons,snow cover,temperature},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {034020},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Defining frigid winter illuminates its loss across seasonally snow-covered areas of eastern North America}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab54f3 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab54f3/meta},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cook2019,
abstract = {In the mid-twentieth century (1948–57), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth-century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth-century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October–March) across the Southwest, southern plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April–September) in the southern plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT,'3 K above preindustrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and southern plains and intensified in the Southeast, whereas during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas–forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and southern plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern United States, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas–forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.},
author = {Cook, Benjamin I. and Seager, Richard and {Park Williams}, A. and Puma, Michael J. and McDermid, Sonali and Kelley, Maxwell and Nazarenko, Larissa},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0832.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {5417--5436},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Climate change amplification of natural drought variability: The historic mid-twentieth-century North American drought in a warmer world}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article-pdf/32/17/5417/4877684/jcli-d-18-0832{\_}1.pdf},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Cook2020,
abstract = {Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, commonly used in stormwater infrastructure design to represent characteristics of extreme rainfall, are gradually being updated to reflect expected changes in rainfall under climate change. The modeling choices used for updating lead to large uncertainties; however, it is unclear how much these uncertainties affect the design and cost of stormwater systems. This study investigates how the choice of spatial resolution of the regional climate model (RCM) ensemble and the spatial adjustment technique affect climate-corrected IDF curves and resulting stormwater infrastructure designs in 34 US cities for the period 2020 to 2099. In most cities, IDF values are significantly different between three spatial adjustment techniques and two RCM spatial resolutions. These differences have the potential to alter the size of stormwater systems designed using these choices and affect the results of climate impact modeling more broadly. The largest change in the engineering decision results when the design storm is selected from the upper bounds of the uncertainty distribution of the IDF curve, which changes the stormwater pipe design size by five increments in some cases, nearly doubling the cost. State and local agencies can help reduce some of this variability by setting guidelines, such as avoiding the use of the upper bound of the future uncertainty range as a design storm and instead accounting for uncertainty by tracking infrastructure performance over time and preparing for adaptation using a resilience plan.},
author = {Cook, Lauren M. and McGinnis, Seth and Samaras, Constantine},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02649-6},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Extreme value distribution,Intensity-duration-frequency curves,MOS techniques,Regional climate models,Stormwater design,Uncertainty},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {289--308},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity–duration–frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02649-6},
volume = {159},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cook2016a,
abstract = {Abstract. Glaciers of the Bolivian Andes represent an important water resource for Andean cities and mountain communities, yet relatively little work has assessed changes in their extent over recent decades. In many mountain regions, glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which can pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard. However, no studies have assessed the development of such lakes in Bolivia despite recent GLOF incidents here. Our mapping from satellite imagery reveals an overall areal shrinkage of 228.1 ± 22.8 km2 (43.1 {\%}) across the Bolivian Cordillera Oriental between 1986 and 2014. Shrinkage was greatest in the Tres Cruces region (47.3 {\%}), followed by the Cordillera Apolobamba (43.1 {\%}) and Cordillera Real (41.9 {\%}). A growing number of proglacial lakes have developed as glaciers have receded, in accordance with trends in most other deglaciating mountain ranges, although the number of ice-contact lakes has decreased. The reasons for this are unclear, but the pattern of lake change has varied significantly throughout the study period, suggesting that monitoring of future lake development is required as ice continues to recede. Ultimately, we use our 2014 database of proglacial lakes to assess GLOF risk across the Bolivian Andes. We identify 25 lakes that pose a potential GLOF threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. We suggest that further studies of potential GLOF impacts are urgently required.},
author = {Cook, Simon J. and Kougkoulos, Ioannis and Edwards, Laura A. and Dortch, Jason and Hoffmann, Dirk},
doi = {10.5194/tc-10-2399-2016},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {2399--2413},
title = {{Glacier change and glacial lake outburst flood risk in the Bolivian Andes}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/10/2399/2016/ https://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/2399/2016/},
volume = {10},
year = {2016}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2019EF001461,
abstract = {Abstract There is strong evidence that climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, and drought metrics being considered. We analyze changes in drought across the hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff) in projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multimodel ensemble shows robust drying in the mean state across many regions and metrics by the end of the 21st century, even following the more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5). Regional hotspots with strong drying include western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern Africa, China, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Compared to SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, however, the severity of drying in the lower warming scenarios is substantially reduced and further precipitation declines in many regions are avoided. Along with drying in the mean state, the risk of the historically most extreme drought events also increases with warming, by 200–300{\%} in some regions. Soil moisture and runoff drying in CMIP6 is more robust, spatially extensive, and severe than precipitation, indicating an important role for other temperature-sensitive drought processes, including evapotranspiration and snow. Given the similarity in drought responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, we speculate that both generations of models are subject to similar uncertainties, including vegetation processes, model representations of precipitation, and the degree to which model responses to warming are consistent with observations. These topics should be further explored to evaluate whether CMIP6 models offer reasons to have increased confidence in drought projections.},
author = {Cook, B. I. and Mankin, J. S. and Marvel, K. and Williams, A. P. and Smerdon, J. E. and Anchukaitis, K. J.},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001461},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {CMIP6,drought},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {e2019EF001461},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Inc},
title = {{Twenty-First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001461 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019EF001461 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001461},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Cooper2014,
abstract = {The Earth is warming, especially in polar areas in which winter temperatures and precipitation are expected to increase. Despite a growing research focus on winter climatic change, the impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Snow acts as an insulator, and depth changes affect the enhancement of thermally dependent reactions, such as microbial activity, affecting soil nutrient composition, respiration, and winter gas efflux. Snow depth and spring temperatures influence snow melt timing, determining the start of plant growth and forage availability. Delays in winter onset affect tundra carbon balance, faunal hibernation, and migration but are unlikely to lengthen the plant growing season. Mild periods in winter followed by a return to freezing have negative consequences for plants and invertebrates, and the resultant ice layers act as barriers to foraging, triggering starvation of herbivores and their predators. In summary, knock-on effects between seasons and trophic levels have important consequences for biological activity, diversity, and ecosystem function.},
author = {Cooper, Elisabeth J.},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-120213-091620},
issn = {1543-592X},
journal = {Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {271--295},
title = {{Warmer Shorter Winters Disrupt Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems}},
url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-120213-091620},
volume = {45},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Coopersmith2017,
author = {Coopersmith, E. J. and Bell, J. E. and Benedict, K. and Shriber, J. and McCotter, O. and Cosh, M. H.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GH000033},
issn = {24711403},
journal = {GeoHealth},
keywords = {coccidioidomycosis,machine learning,modeling,soil moisture,valley fever},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {51--63},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Relating coccidioidomycosis (valley fever) incidence to soil moisture conditions}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GH000033},
volume = {1},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Coppola2014,
abstract = {We provide an overall assessment of the surface air temperature and precipitation present day (1976–2005) and future (2070–2099) ensemble climatologies in the Phase I CREMA experiment. This consists of simulations performed with different configurations (physics schemes) of the ICTP regional model RegCM4 over five CORDEX domains (Africa, Mediterranean, Central America, South America, South Asia), driven by different combinations of three global climate models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). The biases (1976–2005) in the driving and nested model ensembles compared to observations show a high degree of spatial variability and, when comparing GCMs and RegCM4, similar magnitudes and more similarity for precipitation than for temperature. The large scale patterns of change (2070–2099 minus 1976–2005) are broadly consistent across the GCM and RegCM4 ensembles and with previous analyses of GCM projections, indicating that the GCMs selected in the CREMA experiment are representative of the more general behavior of current GCMs. The RegCM4, however, shows a lower climate sensitivity (reduced warming) than the driving GCMs, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. While the broad patterns of precipitation change are consistent across the GCM and RegCM4 ensembles, greater differences are found at sub-regional scales over the various domains, evidently tied to the representation of local processes. This paper serves to provide a reference view of the behavior of the CREMA ensemble, while more detailed and process-based analysis of individual domains is left to companion papers of this special issue.},
author = {Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo and Raffaele, Francesca and Fuentes-Franco, Ramon and Giuliani, Graziano and LLopart-Pereira, Marta and Mamgain, Ashu and Mariotti, Laura and Diro, Gulilat Tefera and Torma, Csaba},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1137-9},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {23--38},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Present and future climatologies in the phase I CREMA experiment}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1137-9},
volume = {125},
year = {2014}
}
@article{CoppolaE.2019,
author = {Coppola, Erika and Raffaele, Francesca and Giorgi, Filippo and Giuliani, Graziano and Xuejie, Gao and Ciarlo, James M. and Sines, Taleena Rae and Torres-Alavez, Jos{\'{e}} Abraham and Das, Sushant and di Sante, Fabio and Pichelli, Emanuela and Glazer, Russell and M{\"{u}}ller, Sebastian Karl and {Abba Omar}, Sabina and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Bukovsky, Melissa and Im, E.-S. and Jacob, Daniela and Teichmann, Claas and Remedio, Armelle and Remke, Thomas and Kriegsmann, Arne and B{\"{u}}low, Katharina and Weber, Torsten and Buntemeyer, Lars and Sieck, Kevin and Rechid, Diana},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-021-05640-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1293--1383},
title = {{Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-021-05640-z https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-021-05640-z},
volume = {57},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Coppola9999,
abstract = {Abstract This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO-CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 members) at 0.11 degree resolution from 11 RCMs driven by 8 global climate models (GCMs). The RCM ensemble results are compared with the driving CMIP5 global models but also with a subset of available last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected by all ensembles in Northern Europe in winter, along with a maximum precipitation increase there; in summer, maximum warming occurs in the Mediterranean and Southern European regions associated with a maximum precipitation decrease. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the largest signals, both for temperature and precipitation, along with the largest inter-model spread. There is a high model consensus across the ensembles on an increase of extreme precipitation and drought frequency in the Mediterranean region. Extreme temperature indices show an increase of heat extremes and a decrease of cold extremes, with CMIP6 showing the highest values and EURO-CORDEX the finest spatial details. This dataset of unprecedented size and quality will provide the basis for impact assessment and climate service activities for the European region.},
author = {Coppola, Erika and Nogherotto, Rita and Ciarlo', James M. and Giorgi, Filippo and Meijgaard, Erik and Kadygrov, Nikolay and Iles, Carley and Corre, Lola and Sandstad, Marit and Somot, Samuel and Nabat, Pierre and Vautard, Robert and Levavasseur, Guillaume and Schwingshackl, Clemens and Sillmann, Jana and Kjellstr{\"{o}}m, Erik and Nikulin, Grigory and Aalbers, Emma and Lenderink, Geert and Christensen, Ole B and Boberg, Fredrik and S{\o}rland, Silje Lund and Demory, Marie-Estelle and B{\"{u}}low, Katharina and Teichmann, Claas and Warrach‐Sagi, Kirsten and Wulfmeyer, Volker},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD032356},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CMIP5,CMIP6,EURO-CORDEX,EURO‐CORDEX,climate impact indices,global model,regional climate modeling},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {e2019JD032356},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD032356 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032356},
volume = {126},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Coppola2014b,
author = {Coppola, Erika and Verdecchia, Marco and Giorgi, Filippo and Colaiuda, Valentina and Tomassetti, Barbara and Lombardi, Annalina},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.03.003},
issn = {00489697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
month = {sep},
pages = {1183--1196},
title = {{Changing hydrological conditions in the Po basin under global warming}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969714003271},
volume = {493},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Coppola2018,
author = {Coppola, Erika and Raffaele, Francesca and Giorgi, Filippo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3331-0},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {1259--1273},
title = {{Impact of climate change on snow melt driven runoff timing over the Alpine region}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3331-0},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Cortekar2020,
abstract = {Tools, products, data and services related to climate change may significantly contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In order to develop a market for climate services, information on the current landscape of climate service providers and their portfolios is needed. In this paper we present a systematic analysis of the supply side of the climate service market, which is based on survey results and an extensive desk research resulting in a collection of information about 371 public and private climate service providers in the EU Member States. Our analyses show that even though the number of identified private sector providers considerably increased compared to previous mappings, the market is still dominated by public climate service providers. Based on the definition of climate services applied here, our data show an unequal distribution of climate service providers in the EU Member States with a significant gap between Eastern Member States and the rest of the European Union. In general, the supply side is dominated by downstream activities such as advisory services or publications compared to upstream services such data collection. For both public and private providers, the primarily targeted sectors are water, energy, agriculture and urban/spatial planning. While decision makers and politicians are important target groups for both provider categories, the general public and researchers are mainly addressed by public providers whereas corporations/industries are primarily served by private providers.},
author = {Cortekar, J{\"{o}}rg and Themessl, Matthias and Lamich, Katja},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100125},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Categorized mapping,Climate services market,EU-based climate service providers},
pages = {100125},
title = {{Systematic analysis of EU-based climate service providers}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880719300664},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Costoya2019,
abstract = {The Caribbean has suitable conditions for a significant wind energy development, which makes a good planning for the future renewable energy mix essential. The impact of climate change on Caribbean wind power has been analyzed by means of an ensemble of CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) under the RCP8.5 warming scenario. The offshore wind energy resource was classified for the historical period and for the future considering wind energy factors, environmental risk factors and cost factors whose weights were estimated by a Delphi method. Future projections show a maximum annual wind increase, ∼0.4 ms−1 (8{\%}), in most of the Caribbean, except in the Yucat{\'{a}}n Basin. This increment occurs mainly during the wet season, ∼0.5 ms−1 (∼10{\%}), associated with changes in the extension of the North Atlantic Subtropical High, which will strengthen the Caribbean low-level jet. Additionally, the moderate wind increase, ∼0.2 ms−1 (∼4{\%}), projected during the dry season is restricted to the southeastern coast and it is associated with an increment in the land-ocean temperature difference (∼1 °C), which will intensify local easterly winds. The low-level jet region was classified as the richest wind energy resource in the Caribbean for the future with a larger extension compared to the historical period.},
author = {Costoya, X. and de Castro, M. and Santos, F. and Sousa, M. C. and G{\'{o}}mez-Gesteira, M},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2019.04/121},
journal = {Energy},
pages = {356--367},
title = {{Projections of wind energy resources in the Caribbean for the 21st century}},
volume = {178},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Courty2019,
abstract = {Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves usefully quantify extreme precipitation over various durations and return periods for engineering design. Unfortunately, sparse, infrequent, or short observations hinder the creation of robust IDF curves in many locations. This paper presents the first global, multi-temporal (1-360 h) dataset of generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters at 31 km resolution dubbed PXR-2 (Parametrized eXtreme Rain). Using these data we generalize site-specific studies to show that that GEV parameters typically scale robustly with event duration (r 2 {\textgreater} 0.88). Thus, we propose a universal IDF formula that allows estimates of rainfall intensity for a continuous range of durations (PXR-4). This parameter scaling property opens the door to estimating sub-daily IDF from daily records. We evaluate this characteristic for selected global cities and a high-density rain gauge network in the United Kingdom. We find that intensities estimated with PXR-4 are within +20{\%} of PXR-2 for durations ranging between 2 and 360 h. PXR is immediately usable by earth scientists studying global precipitation extremes and a promising proof-of-concept for engineers designing infrastructure in data-scarce regions.},
author = {Courty, Laurent G. and Wilby, Robert L. and Hillier, John K. and Slater, Louise J.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab370a},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {ERA5,design rainfall,frequency analysis,precipitation,reanalysis},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {084045},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Intensity-duration-frequency curves at the global scale}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab370a},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Cradock-Henry2017,
abstract = {Commercial cultivation of kiwifruit in New Zealand is concentrated in a relatively small area of the North Island. Cultivation is economically significant and growing quickly. However, current understanding of vulnerability for this, and other primary sector activities in New Zealand, makes almost exclusive use of linear outcome-oriented frameworks. Drawing on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with kiwifruit growers and orchard managers, workshops and analysis of secondary data, a “bottom-up” contextual assessment of vulnerability was developed and empirically applied. The findings suggest that climate and markets are the main sources of exposure for growers, with sensitivity moderated by location. Growers employ mostly short-term, reactive adaptive strategies to manage climate exposure and sensitivity, but have less capacity to respond to market-related stressors. Warmer and drier conditions are likely to have adverse effects for kiwifruit production and compound existing vulnerabilities. An ageing population and other processes of rural change may also constrain future adaptation. In order to realise opportunities and minimise losses, longer-term strategic responses are required. The paper demonstrates the need to move beyond outcome-oriented and model-based vulnerability assessments in New Zealand, to consider the broad range of the factors that contribute to vulnerability in the nation's agricultural sectors. It provides a basis for further consideration of multiple exogenous impacts in the industry and confirms the critical importance of qualitatively vulnerability assessments to determine spatially specific outcomes.},
author = {Cradock-Henry, Nicholas A.},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-016-1000-9},
isbn = {1436-3798},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
keywords = {Adaptive strategies,Climate change,Exposure,Kiwifruit,Multiple stressors,New Zealand,Resilience,Sensitivity,Vulnerability},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {245--259},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{New Zealand kiwifruit growers' vulnerability to climate and other stressors}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-016-1000-9},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Craft2009,
author = {Craft, Christopher and Clough, Jonathan and Ehman, Jeff and Joye, Samantha and Park, Richard and Pennings, Steve and Guo, Hongyu and Machmuller, Megan},
doi = {10.1890/070219},
issn = {1540-9295},
journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {73--78},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea-level rise on tidal marsh ecosystem services}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/070219},
volume = {7},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Craig2018,
author = {Craig, Michael T. and Cohen, Stuart and Macknick, Jordan and Draxl, Caroline and Guerra, Omar J. and Sengupta, Manajit and Haupt, Sue Ellen and Hodge, Bri-Mathias and Brancucci, Carlo},
doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022},
issn = {13640321},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
month = {dec},
pages = {255--267},
title = {{A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032118306701},
volume = {98},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Crimp2016,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2016 Springer Science+Business Media DordrechtAs part of part of a special issue on natural hazards, this paper explores recent changes in Australian minimum temperature extremes. Using minimum temperature data from the 112 observation locations making up the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) data set, as well as the Scientific Information for Land Owners (SILO) minimum temperature gridded data surface, we analyse and map trends in extreme minimum temperature indices across southern Australia at seasonal, annual and multi-decadal timeframes since 1960. Our analyses highlights that across southern Australia, despite a warming trend of 0.17 °C per decade since 1960 in the mean annual minimum temperature, there exist regions of localised cooling as well as a much broader spatially-coherent pattern of increasing “frost season” length. Our analysis identifies that the “frost season length” has, across the whole southern portion of Australia, increased on average by 26 days (at 2014) compared with the 1960 to 1990 long term mean. Some areas of south eastern Australia now experience their last frost an average four weeks later than in the 1960s (i.e. mean date of last frost for the period 1960 to 1970 was 19 September versus 23 October for the period 2000 to 2014). Over isolated portions of southern Australia (i.e. northern Victoria and southern New South Wales), the annual frequency of frost events occurring after August has increased by as much as 4 events per year over the last decade, with localised increases in the occurrence of consecutive frost days also observed. This analysis builds upon earlier more localised trend analyses work by these authors (Crimp et al. 2015), as well as a growing body of international research, highlighting a complex spatio-temporal pattern of temperature change despite a general pattern of annual warming in minimum temperatures.},
author = {Crimp, Steven Jeffery and Gobbett, David and Kokic, Philip and Nidumolu, Uday and Howden, Mark and Nicholls, Neville},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1763-5},
file = {::},
isbn = {1573-1480},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {115--128},
title = {{Recent seasonal and long-term changes in southern Australian frost occurrence}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1763-5},
volume = {139},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Crimp2016b,
abstract = {Frost damage remains a major problem for broadacre cropping, viticulture, horticulture and other agricultural industries in Australia. Annual losses from frost events in Australian broadacre agriculture are estimated at between {\$}120 million and {\$}700 million each year for this sector. Understanding the changing nature of frost risk, and the drivers responsible, are important steps in helping many producers manage climate variability and change. Our analysis, using Stevenson screen temperature thresholds of 2°C or below as an indicator of frost at ground level, demonstrates that across southern Australia, despite a warming trend of 0.17°C per decade since 1960, ‘frost season' length has increased, on average, by 26 days across the whole southern portion of Australia compared with the 1960–1990 long-term mean. Some areas of south-eastern Australia now experience their last frost an average 4 weeks later than during the 1960s. The intersection of frost and wheat production risk was quantified at 60 sites across the Australian wheatbelt, with a more in-depth analysis undertaken for 15 locations across Victoria (i.e. eight sites common to both the National and Victorian assessments and seven sites exclusive to the Victorian analysis). The results of the national assessment highlight how frost-related production risk has increased by as much as 30{\%} across much of the Australian wheatbelt, for a range of wheat maturity types, over the last two decades, in response to an increase in later frost events. Across 15 Victorian sites, sowing dates to achieve anthesis during a period with only a 10{\%} chance of a 0°C night occurring shifted by 23 days (6 June) for the short-season variety, 20 days (17 May) for the medium-season variety and 36 days later (9 May) for the long-season variety assessed.},
author = {Crimp, Steven Jeffery and Zheng, Bangyou and Khimashia, Nirav and Gobbett, David Lyon and Chapman, Scott and Howden, Mark and Nicholls, Neville},
doi = {10.1071/CP16056},
issn = {1836-0947},
journal = {Crop and Pasture Science},
keywords = {crop varieties,frost window,production risk,seasonal trends,temperature extremes,yield losses.},
month = {sep},
number = {8},
pages = {801},
publisher = {CSIRO PUBLISHING},
title = {{Recent changes in southern Australian frost occurrence: implications for wheat production risk}},
url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=CP16056},
volume = {67},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Crooks2016,
abstract = {BACKGROUND The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied in the context of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms, but there has been no recent population-level epidemiological research on the dust storms in North America. The relevance of dust storms to public health is likely to increase as extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent with anticipated changes in climate through the 21st century. OBJECTIVES We examined the association between dust storms and county-level non-accidental mortality in the United States from 1993 through 2005. METHODS Dust storm incidence data, including date and approximate location, are taken from the U.S. National Weather Service storm database. County-level mortality data for the years 1993-2005 were acquired from the National Center for Health Statistics. Distributed lag conditional logistic regression models under a time-stratified case-crossover design were used to study the relationship between dust storms and daily mortality counts over the whole United States and in Arizona and California specifically. End points included total non-accidental mortality and three mortality subgroups (cardiovascular, respiratory, and other non-accidental). RESULTS We estimated that for the United States as a whole, total non-accidental mortality increased by 7.4{\%} (95{\%} CI: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.011) and 6.7{\%} (95{\%} CI: 1.1, 12.6; p = 0.018) at 2- and 3-day lags, respectively, and by an average of 2.7{\%} (95{\%} CI: 0.4, 5.1; p = 0.023) over lags 0-5 compared with referent days. Significant associations with non-accidental mortality were estimated for California (lag 2 and 0-5 day) and Arizona (lag 3), for cardiovascular mortality in the United States (lag 2) and Arizona (lag 3), and for other non-accidental mortality in California (lags 1-3 and 0-5). CONCLUSIONS Dust storms are associated with increases in lagged non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. Citation: Crooks JL, Cascio WE, Percy MS, Reyes J, Neas LM, Hilborn ED. 2016. The association between dust storms and daily non-accidental mortality in the United States, 1993-2005. Environ Health Perspect 124:1735-1743; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP216.},
author = {Crooks, James Lewis and Cascio, Wayne E. and Percy, Madelyn S. and Reyes, Jeanette and Neas, Lucas M. and Hilborn, Elizabeth D.},
doi = {10.1289/EHP216},
issn = {0091-6765},
journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1735--1743},
pmid = {27128449},
publisher = {National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences},
title = {{The Association between Dust Storms and Daily Non-Accidental Mortality in the United States, 1993–2005}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27128449 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC5089887 https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/EHP216},
volume = {124},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Crozier2010,
abstract = {Increased landslide activity is commonly listed as an expected impact of human-induced climate change. This paper examines the theoretical and empirical bases for this assertion. It identifies the mechanisms by which climate can induce landsliding and examines the manner in which these mechanisms may respond to changes in a range of climatic parameters. It is argued that inherent limiting stability factors, which vary with different terrain conditions and landslide types, ultimately govern the nature of response to changing climate. Several modelling approaches are evaluated on the basis of their potential to predict landslide response to climate projections. Given reliable input data of appropriate form and resolution, the existing slope stability, hydrological, and statistical models are for the most part capable of yielding useful prognoses on occurrence, reactivation, magnitude and frequency of landsliding. While there is a strong theoretical basis for increased landslide activity as a result of predicted climate change, there remains a high level of uncertainty resulting from the margins of error inherent in scenario-driven global climate predictions, and the lack of sufficient spatial resolution of currently available downscaled projections. Examples from New Zealand are used to illustrate the extent to which changes resulting from human activity have affected slope stability. Changes resulting from human activity are seen as a factor of equal, if not greater, importance than climate change in affecting the temporal and spatial occurrence of landslides.},
annote = {Recent advances in landslide investigation},
author = {Crozier, M.J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.04.009},
issn = {0169555X},
journal = {Geomorphology},
keywords = {Climate change,Human impact,Landslides,New Zealand},
month = {dec},
number = {3-4},
pages = {260--267},
title = {{Deciphering the effect of climate change on landslide activity: A review}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X10001881 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169555X10001881},
volume = {124},
year = {2010}
}
@techreport{CSIRO2016,
address = {Australia},
author = {CSIRO and BOM},
isbn = {978-0-642-70678-2},
pages = {22},
publisher = {Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)},
title = {{State of the Climate 2016}},
url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf},
year = {2016}
}
@techreport{CSIRO2015,
address = {Australia},
author = {CSIRO and BOM},
doi = {10.4225/08/58518c08c4ce8},
isbn = {9781921232947},
pages = {216},
publisher = {Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)},
title = {{Climate Change in Australia Information for Australia's Natural Resource Management Regions}},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{BOM2020,
address = {Australia},
author = {CSIRO and BOM},
isbn = {978-1-4863-1509-3},
pages = {23},
publisher = {Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)},
title = {{State of the Climate 2020}},
url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/documents/State-of-the-Climate-2020.pdf},
year = {2020}
}
@techreport{BureauofMeteorologyandCSIRO2018,
address = {Australia},
author = {CSIRO and BOM},
isbn = {978-1-925315-97-4},
pages = {24},
publisher = {Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)},
title = {{State of the Climate 2018}},
url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2018.pdf},
year = {2018}
}
@article{tc-7-419-2013,
author = {Cullen, N J and Sirguey, P and M{\"{o}}lg, T and Kaser, G and Winkler, M and Fitzsimons, S J},
doi = {10.5194/tc-7-419-2013},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
number = {2},
pages = {419--431},
title = {{A century of ice retreat on Kilimanjaro: the mapping reloaded}},
url = {https://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/419/2013/},
volume = {7},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Culwick2017,
abstract = {Transdisciplinary research has increasingly been emphasised as desirable, particularly for managing complex issues that exist within socio-political environmental systems. However, achieving true transdisciplinarity, both in academia and practice, has proved challenging. In the case of natural disasters, the risk of not acknowledging the inherent complexity has the potential to increase the risk of fatalities, damage to property and perpetuate poor disaster management. The example of flooding in Atlasville, Ekurhuleni (South Africa) is used to make a case for the usefulness of transdisciplinary approaches. Understanding and responding to local flooding episodes is explored through comparing two hypothetical methodological frameworks-a divided and a united approach. The divided (disciplinary) approach, based on typical disaster response patterns, separated investigations into environmental, government and social factors. In contrast, the united approach, based on a transdisciplinary model, investigated the flooding context along non-traditional lines including: drivers; absorptive and adaptive capacity; and mitigation and preparation. The research highlights that reframing the flooding problem along transdisciplinary lines forces researchers to analyse the context more comprehensively as isolated analyses are unable to determine or consider the cumulative impacts of individual phenomena. The transformative potential of the transdisciplinary findings indicates that means of translating this hypothetical analysis into reality are urgently required because of the important implications transdisciplinary approaches have for disaster risk reduction, and for managing other complex issues.},
author = {Culwick, Christina and Patel, Zarina},
doi = {10.1111/area.12282},
issn = {00040894},
journal = {Area},
keywords = {Ekurhuleni,South Africa,complex urban issues,coproduction of knowledge,disaster management,reframing problems,transdisciplinary},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {43--51},
title = {{United and divided responses to complex urban issues: insights on the value of a transdisciplinary approach to flooding risk}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/area.12282},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Cunha2019a,
abstract = {Drought-related disasters are among the natural disasters that are able to cause large economic and social losses. In recent years, droughts have affected different regions of Brazil, impacting water, food, and energy security. In this study, we used the Integrated Drought Index (IDI), which combines a meteorological-based drought index and remote sensing-based index, to assess the drought events from 2011 to 2019 over Brazil. During this period, drought events were observed throughout the country, being most severe and widespread between the years 2011 and 2017. In most of the country, the 2014/15 hydrological year stands out due to the higher occurrence of severe and moderate droughts. However, drought intensity and observed impacts were different for each region, which is shown by the different case studies, assessing different types of impacts caused by drought in Brazil. Thus, it is fundamental to evaluate the impacts of droughts in a continental country such as Brazil, where a variety of vegetation, soil, land use, and especially different climate regimes predominate.},
author = {Cunha, Ana Paula M. A. and Zeri, Marcelo and {Deusdar{\'{a}} Leal}, Karinne and Costa, Lidiane and Cuartas, Luz Adriana and Marengo, Jos{\'{e}} Ant{\^{o}}nio and Tomasella, Javier and Vieira, Rita Marcia and Barbosa, Alexandre Augusto and Cunningham, Christopher and {Cal Garcia}, Jo{\~{a}}o Victor and Broedel, Elisangela and Alval{\'{a}}, Regina and Ribeiro-Neto, Germano},
doi = {10.3390/atmos10110642},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
month = {oct},
number = {11},
pages = {642},
title = {{Extreme Drought Events over Brazil from 2011 to 2019}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/11/642},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Cutter2018,
annote = {doi: 10.1080/00139157.2018.1517518},
author = {Cutter, Susan L},
doi = {10.1080/00139157.2018.1517518},
issn = {0013-9157},
journal = {Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development},
month = {nov},
number = {6},
pages = {16--25},
publisher = {Routledge},
title = {{Compound, Cascading, or Complex Disasters: What's in a Name?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2018.1517518},
volume = {60},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Doll2012,
abstract = {To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater resources, change in mean annual runoff (MAR) is only a first indicator. In addition, it is necessary to analyze changes of river flow regimes, i.e.changes in the temporal dynamics of river discharge, as these are important for the well-being of humans (e.g.with respect to water supply) and freshwater-dependent biota (e.g.with respect to habitat availability). Therefore, we investigated, in a global-scale hydrological modeling study, the relation between climate-induced changes of MAR and changes of a number of river flow regime indicators, including mean river discharge, statistical low and high flows, and mean seasonal discharge. In addition, we identified, for the first time at the global scale, where flow regime shifts from perennial to intermittent flow regimes (or vice versa) may occur due to climate change. Climate-induced changes of all considered river flow regime indicators (except seasonal river flow changes) broadly follow the spatial pattern of MAR changes. The differences among the computed changes of MAR due to the application of the two climate models are larger than the differences between the change of MAR and the change of the diverse river flow indicators for one climate model. At the sub-basin and grid cell scales, however, there are significant differences between the changes of MAR, mean annual river discharge, and low and high flows. Low flows are projected to be more than halved by the 2050s in almost twice the area as compared to MAR. Similarly, northern hemisphere summer flows decrease more strongly than MAR. Differences between the high emissions scenario A2 (with emissions of 25GtCyr 1 in the 2050s) and the low emissions scenario B2 (16GtCyr 1 ) are generally small as compared to the differences due to the two climate models. The benefits of avoided emissions are, however, significant in those areas where flows are projected to be more than halved due to climate change. If emissions were constrained to the B2 scenario, the area with ecologically relevant flow regime shifts would be reduced to 5.4{\%}6.7{\%} of the global land area as compared to 6.3{\%}7.0{\%} in A2. In particular, under the B2 scenario, fewer rivers will change from perennial to intermittent (or transitional) river flows. {\textcopyright} 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd.},
author = {D{\"{o}}ll, Petra and Schmied, Hannes M{\"{u}}ller},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014037},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,flow regime,river flow,runoff},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {014037},
title = {{How is the impact of climate change on river flow regimes related to the impact on mean annual runoff? A global-scale analysis}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014037},
volume = {7},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Depoues2017,
author = {D{\'{e}}poues, Vivian},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2016-y},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {473--486},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Organisational uptake of scientific information about climate change by infrastructure managers: the case of adaptation of the French railway company}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2016-y},
volume = {143},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dahal2018,
abstract = {Nepal has experienced recent changes in two crucial climatic variables: temperature and precipitation. Therefore, climate-induced water security concerns have now become more pronounced in Nepal as changes in temperature and precipitation have already altered some hydrological processes such as the river runoff in some river systems. However, the linkage between precipitation patterns and streamflow characteristics are poorly understood, especially in small rivers. We analysed the temporal trends of temperature, precipitation, and extreme indices of wet and dry spells in the Rosi watershed in Central Nepal, and observed the temporal patterns of the streamflow of the Rosi river. We also examined the linkages between the average and extreme climate indices and streamflow. We found that the area has warmed up by an average of 0.03 °C/year, and has seen a significant decline in precipitation. The dry spell as represented by the maximum length of the dry spell (CDD) and the magnitude of dryness (AII) has become more pronounced, while the wet spell as represented by the number of heavy rainfall days (R5D) and the precipitation intensity on wet days (SDII) has diminished significantly. Our analysis shows that recent changes in precipitation patterns have affected the streamflow of the Rosi river, as manifested in the observed decline in annual and seasonal streamflows. The decrease in the availability of water in the river is likely to have severe consequences for water security in the area.},
author = {Dahal, Ngamindra and Shrestha, Uttam and Tuitui, Anita and Ojha, Hemant},
doi = {10.3390/cli7010003},
issn = {2225-1154},
journal = {Climate},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {3},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Temporal Changes in Precipitation and Temperature and their Implications on the Streamflow of Rosi River, Central Nepal}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/1/3},
volume = {7},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dahl2017,
abstract = {Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding cur-rently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substan-tial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.},
author = {Dahl, Kristina A. and Fitzpatrick, Melanie F. and Spanger-Siegfried, Erika},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0170949},
editor = {Schumann, Guy J-P.},
isbn = {1111111111},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {e0170949},
title = {{Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045}},
url = {https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170949},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dahl2019a,
author = {Dahl, Kristina A. and Licker, Rachel and Abatzoglou, John T and Declet-Barreto, Juan},
doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/ab27cf},
issn = {2515-7620},
journal = {Environmental Research Communications},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {075002},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Increased frequency of and population exposure to extreme heat index days in the United States during the 21st century}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab27cf},
volume = {1},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dahl2017a,
abstract = {Recurrent, tidally driven coastal flooding is one of the most visible signs of sea level rise. Recent studies have shown that such flooding will become more frequent and extensive as sea level continues to rise, potentially altering the landscape and livability of coastal communities decades before sea level rise causes coastal land to be permanently inundated. In this study, we identify US communities that will face effective inundation—defined as having 10{\%} or more of livable land area flooded at least 26 times per year—with three localized sea level rise scenarios based on projections for the 3rd US National Climate Assessment. We present these results in a new, online interactive tool that allows users to explore when and how effective inundation will impact their communities. In addition, we identify communities facing effective inundation within the next 30 years that contain areas of high socioeconomic vulnerability today using a previously published vulnerability index. With the Intermediate-High and Highest sea level rise scenarios, 489 and 668 communities, respectively, would face effective inundation by the year 2100. With these two scenarios, more than half of communities facing effective inundation by 2045 contain areas of current high socioeconomic vulnerability. These results highlight the timeframes that US coastal communities have to respond to disruptive future inundation. The results also underscore the importance of limiting future warming and sea level rise: under the Intermediate-Low scenario, used as a proxy for sea level rise under the Paris Climate Agreement, 199 fewer communities would be effectively inundated by 2100.},
author = {Dahl, Kristina A. and Spanger-Siegfried, Erika and Caldas, Astrid and Udvardy, Shana},
doi = {10.1525/elementa.234},
editor = {Kapuscinski, Anne R. and Locke, Kim A. and Stephens, Jennie C.},
issn = {2325-1026},
journal = {Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene},
keywords = {Climate change,Coastal resilience,Sea level rise,Socioeconomic vulnerability,United States},
month = {jan},
pages = {37},
publisher = {University of California Press},
title = {{Effective inundation of continental United States communities with 21st century sea level rise}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.234 https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article/doi/10.1525/elementa.234/112439/Effective-inundation-of-continental-United-States},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Damm2019,
abstract = {Climate services (CS) are promoted as a means to support decision-making processes in order to better prepare and adapt to the risks and opportunities of climate variability and change. The current market for CS is still in its early stages. In this paper, we report the findings from our recent investigation into the actual and potential market for CS in the Austrian tourism sector. In close collaboration with tourism stakeholders and CS providers, we explored main barriers hampering the actual use and effectiveness of climate services and identified potential drivers to support further product development and widespread uptake of CS. Despite the high vulnerability of tourism to climate variability and change, the actual use of CS among Austrian tourism stakeholders is rather limited. The main barriers to the use of CS in tourism include wide-spread low levels of risk awareness, a certain degree of risk denial, a lacking sense of urgency due to (yet still) little financial pressure, and rather short business decision cycles, which lead to a low prioritization of climate issues. Furthermore, lack of knowledge of existing services and their benefits, lack of applicability, and distrust in climate services restrict their use. Recommendations for an enhanced uptake of CS thus include the improved demonstration and communication of their added value. In addition, the market would benefit from an increase in intermediaries who bridge the gap between research and applicability. It is further recommended to increasingly integrate climate information into existing services and products already in use.},
author = {Damm, Andrea and K{\"{o}}berl, Judith and Stegmaier, Peter and {Jim{\'{e}}nez Alonso}, Elisa and Harjanne, Atte},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2019.02.001},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Climate change adaptation,Climate services,Market development,Tourism},
month = {jan},
pages = {100094},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{The market for climate services in the tourism sector – An analysis of Austrian stakeholders' perceptions}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880718300931},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Damm2017,
author = {Damm, Andrea and Greuell, Wouter and Landgren, Oskar and Prettenthaler, Franz},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2016.07.003},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {aug},
pages = {31--46},
title = {{Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880715300297},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Danco2016,
abstract = {Using simulations performed with 24 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), projections of Northern Hemisphere daily snowfall events under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario are analyzed for the periods of 2021–50 and 2071–2100 and compared to the historical period of 1971–2000. The overall frequency of daily snowfall events is simulated to decrease across much of the Northern Hemisphere, except at the highest latitudes such as northern Canada, northern Siberia, and Greenland. Seasonal redistributions of daily snowfall event frequency and average daily snowfall are also projected to occur in some regions. For example, large portions of the Northern Hemisphere, including much of Canada, Tibet, northern Scandinavia, northern Siberia, and Greenland, are projected to experience increases in average daily snowfall and event frequency in midwinter. But in warmer months, the regions with increased snowfall become fewer in number and are limited to northern Canada, northern Siberia, and Greenland. These simulations also show changes in the frequency distribution of daily snowfall event intensity, including an increase in heavier snowfall events even in some regions where the overall snowfall decreases. The projected changes in daily snowfall event frequency exhibit some dependence on the temperature biases of the individual models in certain regions and times of the year, with colder models typically toward the positive end of the distribution of event frequency changes and warmer models toward the negative end, particularly in regions near the transition zone between increasing and decreasing snowfall.},
author = {Danco, James F. and DeAngelis, Anthony M. and Raney, Bryan K. and Broccoli, Anthony J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0687.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6295--6318},
title = {{Effects of a Warming Climate on Daily Snowfall Events in the Northern Hemisphere}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0687.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Daniel2018,
abstract = {Low-volume roads constitute a major percentage of roadways around the world. Many of these are located in seasonal frost areas where agencies increase and decrease the allowable weight limits based on seasonal fluctuations in the load carrying capacity of the roadway due to freeze–thaw conditions. As temperatures shift due to changing climate, the timing and duration of winter freeze and spring thaw periods are likely to change, potentially causing significant impacts to local industry and economies. In this study, an ensemble of 19 climate models were used to project future temperature changes and the impact of these changes on the frost depth and timing of seasonal load changes across five instrumented pavement sites in New England. The study shows that shifts of up to 2 weeks are projected at the end of the century and that moderate variability was observed across the study region, indicating that local conditions are important for future assessments depending on the desired level of accuracy. From 197...},
author = {Daniel, Jo Sias and Jacobs, Jennifer M. and Miller, Heather and Stoner, Anne and Crowley, Jillian and Khalkhali, Masoumeh and Thomas, Ashley},
doi = {10.1080/14680629.2017.1302355},
issn = {1468-0629},
journal = {Road Materials and Pavement Design},
keywords = {climate change,freeze–thaw,low-volume roads,seasonal load restrictions,winter weight premiums},
month = {jul},
number = {5},
pages = {1126--1146},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Climate change: potential impacts on frost–thaw conditions and seasonal load restriction timing for low-volume roadways}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14680629.2017.1302355},
volume = {19},
year = {2018}
}
@article{DANIELS2020100181,
abstract = {This paper seeks to reconceptualize climate services in light of the prevailing inability of existing climate information to spur needed policy and action. We propose refocusing the climate services lens by moving away from a narrow, supply-driven emphasis on products. Instead, we advocate moving towards a process-centric approach defined by transdisciplinary collaboration that purposefully seeks to bring about fundamental, long-term benefits. Such benefits include increased human and institutional capacity, and the creation of relationships that are essential components of science-informed decision-making for climate adaptation and beyond. Work underpinning this paper consists of a review of existing climate services guidance, and analyses of a survey of climate services stakeholders, and a climate information co-production process case study in Lusaka, Zambia. We identify elements needed to support complex, real-world decision-making that many existing climate services fail to sufficiently consider. We respond by introducing a framework (Tandem), which consists of structured elements and practical, guiding questions informed by empirical analysis. To lay the foundation for both science-informed policy and policy-informed science, the Tandem framework puts forward guidance to achieve three goals: 1) to improve the ways in which all participants work together to purposefully design transdisciplinary knowledge integration processes (co-exploration and co-production processes that bring together different knowledge types across the science-society interface); 2) to co-explore decision-relevant needs for the co-production of integrated climate information (i.e., decision-relevant climate and non-climate information); and, 3) to increase individual and institutional capacities, collaboration, communication and networks that can translate this information into climate-resilient decision-making and action.},
author = {Daniels, Elizabeth and Bharwani, Sukaina and {Gerger Swartling}, {\AA}sa and Vulturius, Gregor and Brandon, Karen},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100181},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Capacity development,Climate services,Co-exploration,Co-production,Integrated climate information,Transdisciplinary knowledge integration},
pages = {100181},
title = {{Refocusing the climate services lens: Introducing a framework for co-designing “transdisciplinary knowledge integration processes” to build climate resilience}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880720300339},
volume = {19},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Dankers2014,
abstract = {Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45{\%}) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30{\%} of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.},
author = {Dankers, Rutger and Arnell, Nigel W and Clark, Douglas B and Falloon, Pete D and Fekete, Bal{\'{a}}zs M and Gosling, Simon N and Heinke, Jens and Kim, Hyungjun and Masaki, Yoshimitsu and Satoh, Yusuke and Stacke, Tobias and Wada, Yoshihide and Wisser, Dominik},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1302078110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {climate impacts,extremes,river flows},
month = {mar},
number = {9},
pages = {3257--3261},
pmid = {24344290},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1302078110},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Darmaraki2019a,
abstract = {Extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), have been observed to perturb significantly marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world. Here, we propose a detection method for long-lasting and large-scale summer MHWs, using a local, climatological 99th percentile threshold, based on present-climate (1976–2005) daily SST. To assess their future evolution in the Mediterranean Sea we use, for the first time, a dedicated ensemble of fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models from the Med-CORDEX initiative and a multi-scenario approach. The models appear to simulate well MHW properties during historical period, despite biases in mean and extreme SST. In response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing, the events become stronger and more intense under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. By 2100 and under RCP8.5, simulations project at least one long-lasting MHW every year, up to three months longer, about 4 times more intense and 42 times more severe than present-day events. They are expected to occur from June-October and to affect at peak the entire basin. Their evolution is found to occur mainly due to an increase in the mean SST, but increased daily SST variability also plays a noticeable role. Until the mid-21st century, MHW characteristics rise independently of the choice of the emission scenario, the influence of which becomes more evident by the end of the period. Further analysis reveals different climate change responses in certain configurations, more likely linked to their driving global climate model rather than to the individual model biases.},
author = {Darmaraki, Sofia and Somot, Samuel and Sevault, Florence and Nabat, Pierre and {Cabos Narvaez}, William David and Cavicchia, Leone and Djurdjevic, Vladimir and Li, Laurent and Sannino, Gianmaria and Sein, Dmitry V.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04661-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1371--1392},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
title = {{Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea}},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dash2016,
author = {Dash, Soumya and Chakravarty, A. K. and Singh, Avtar and Upadhyay, Arpan and Singh, Manvendra and Yousuf, Saleem},
doi = {10.14202/vetworld.2016.235-244},
issn = {09728988},
journal = {Veterinary World},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {235--244},
title = {{Effect of heat stress on reproductive performances of dairy cattle and buffaloes: A review}},
url = {http://www.veterinaryworld.org/Vol.9/March-2016/3.html},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Davi2015,
annote = {Cited By :29
Export Date: 24 July 2018},
author = {Davi, N K and D'Arrigo, R and Jacoby, G C and Cook, E R and Anchukaitis, K and Nachin, B and Rao, M P and Leland, C},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.05.020},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
pages = {89--97},
title = {{A long-term context (931–2005 C.E.) for rapid warming over Central Asia}},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84930677167{\&}doi=10.1016{\%}2Fj.quascirev.2015.05.020{\&}partnerID=40{\&}md5=2804dc19e1d3c3b51eb39f33d416ad8a},
volume = {121},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Davy2018a,
abstract = {We may anticipate that climate change will bring changes to the intensity and variability of near surface winds, either through local effects or by altering the large-scale flow. The impact of climate change on European wind resources has been assessed using a single-model-ensemble of the latest regional climate model from the Rossby Centre, RCA4. These simulations used data from five of the global climate models in the contemporary Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as boundary conditions, and the results are publicly available under the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) project. Overall we find a consistent pattern of a decrease in the wind resources over the European domain under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, although there are some regions, principally North Africa and the Barents Sea, with projected increases in wind resources. The pattern of change is both robust across the choice of scenario, and persistent: there is a very similar pattern of change found in the latter part of the 21st century as in the earlier. A case study was chosen to assess the potential for offshore wind-farms in the Black Sea region. We developed a realistic methodology for extrapolating near-surface wind speeds up to hub-height using a time-varying roughness length, and determined the extractable wind power at hub-height using a realistic model of contemporary wind-turbine energy production. We demonstrate that, unlike much of the Mediterranean basin, there is no robust pattern of a negative climate change impact on wind resources in the studied regions of the Black Sea. Furthermore, the seasonality of wind resources, with a strong peak in the winter, matches well to the seasonality of energy-demand in the region, making offshore wind-farms in the Black Sea region a viable source of energy for neighboring countries.},
author = {Davy, Richard and Gnatiuk, Natalia and Pettersson, Lasse and Bobylev, Leonid},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.253},
issn = {1364-0321},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
keywords = {CORDEX,Climate change projections,Europe,Wind energy},
pages = {1652--1659},
title = {{Climate change impacts on wind energy potential in the European domain with a focus on the Black Sea}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032117308997},
volume = {81},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dawson2009,
author = {Dawson, R. J. and Dickson, M. E. and Nicholls, R. J. and Hall, J. W. and Walkden, M. J. A. and Stansby, P. K. and Mokrech, M. and Richards, J. and Zhou, J. and Milligan, J. and Jordan, A. and Pearson, S. and Rees, J. and Bates, P. D. and Koukoulas, S. and Watkinson, A. R.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-008-9532-8},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {249--288},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-008-9532-8},
volume = {95},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Day2018,
author = {Day, Jonathan J. and Hodges, Kevin I.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL077587},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {3673--3681},
title = {{Growing Land–Sea Temperature Contrast and the Intensification of Arctic Cyclones}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL077587},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{DeBoeck2018,
author = {{De Boeck}, Hans J. and Hiltbrunner, Erika and Verlinden, Maya and Bassin, Seraina and Zeiter, Michaela},
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2018.01586},
issn = {1664-462X},
journal = {Frontiers in Plant Science},
month = {oct},
pages = {1586},
title = {{Legacy Effects of Climate Extremes in Alpine Grassland}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpls.2018.01586/full},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{DeBruin,
abstract = {While investors are paying more attention to climate change, there is a lack of granular data designed to support financial decisions. Climate services can provide improved indicators and metrics to help investors better manage physical climate risks. This chapter presents results of the ERA4CS-JPI Climate project ClimINVEST intended to co-design tailored information on climate change. It provides an overview of investors' needs and information gaps on the physical impact of climate change. We identify the information sources that financial actors rely on and the challenges they face in incorporating available climate change information, while taking into account diverse investor mandates and risk management approaches. Three unique geographical cases are presented, both on commonalities and differences, namely France, the Netherlands and Norway. In France, the 2015's Energy Transition for Green Growth Act (Article 173-VI) requires institutional investors to report on their integration of climate-related risks in their investment policy. In the Netherlands, the Dutch Central Bank and financial institutions are challenged to deal with potential flood risks from increasing precipitation and sea level rise. In Norway, different actors, such as Finance Norway and the Norwegian Government, are assessing the impacts of physical climate risks on the Norwegian economy.},
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {{De Bruin}, K. and Hubert, R. and Evain, J. and Clapp, C. and {Stackpole Dahl}, M. and Bolt, J. and Sillmann, J.},
booktitle = {Handbook of Climate Services: Climate Change Management},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3_8},
editor = {{Leal Filho}, W. and Jacob, Daniela},
file = {::},
isbn = {978-3-030-36874-6},
pages = {135--156},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Physical climate risks and the financial sector – Synthesis of investors' climate information needs}},
year = {2020}
}
@article{DeJong2019,
abstract = {In the coming decades, higher temperatures, significantly reduced rainfall and changing wind speeds are projected for various semiarid regions due to Global Warming. Hydroelectric production in Brazil's S{\~{a}}o Francisco basin has already declined as a result of regional climate change, however less is known about the impacts on other renewable resources. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of climate change on Brazil's solar and wind energy resources. Data from three different downscaled global climate models is used to estimate the percentage changes in average solar radiation and wind speed by the 2030s and 2080s under high emissions scenarios in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. Results show that due to climate change, solar energy potential could increase slightly at solar power plant locations in the NE and Southeast regions. Wind energy potential is projected to increase substantially across most of Brazil and at some wind farm locations wind power generation could increase by more than 40{\%}. Despite some inconsistencies between the long-term projections from the 3 different climate models, the results of this research are important in the context of regional climate change and renewable energy resource planning.},
author = {de Jong, Pieter and Barreto, Tarssio B and Tanajura, Clemente A S and Kouloukoui, Daniel and Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla P and Kiperstok, Asher and Torres, Ednildo Andrade},
doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.086},
issn = {0960-1481},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
keywords = {Climate change,PV,Renewable energy,Solar radiation,Wind power},
pages = {390--401},
title = {{Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014811930391X},
volume = {141},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Acquah:120241,
abstract = {This paper assesses farmers' perception and adaptation to climate change to enhance policy towards tackling the challenges climate change poses to the farmers in Ghana. With regards to farmers' perception and methods of adaptation, majority of the farmers perceived increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall pattern. Farmers' level of adaptation was found to be relatively high with majority of the farmers using changing planting dates, different crop varieties, soil conservation and water harvesting as the major adaptation measures to climate change impacts. However, access to water, high cost of adaptation, lack of information, lack of knowledge on adaptation, insecure property rights, insufficient access to inputs and lack of credits were identified as the major barriers to adaptation. The probit regression estimation results indicated that the probability of willingness to pay for climate change mitigation policies increases with age, years of education and ownership of farm land.},
address = {2011-12-30},
author = {de-Graft Acquah, H and Onumah, Edward E},
doi = {10.22004/ag.econ.120241},
journal = {AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics},
pages = {31--39},
series = {2011},
title = {{Farmers Perception and Adaptation to Climate Change: An Estimation of Willingness to Pay}},
url = {http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/120241},
volume = {3},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Debortoli2015,
author = {Debortoli, Nathan S. and Dubreuil, Vincent and Funatsu, Beatriz and Delahaye, Florian and de Oliveira, Carlos Henke and Rodrigues-Filho, Saulo and Saito, Carlos Hiroo and Fetter, Raquel},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1415-1},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {sep},
number = {2},
pages = {251--264},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Rainfall patterns in the Southern Amazon: a chronological perspective (1971–2010)}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-015-1415-1},
volume = {132},
year = {2015}
}
@article{DeGaetano2018,
abstract = {Both mean temperature and daily temperature variance affect freeze risk in apples. Freeze damage to blossoms was assessed using a sequential model. In the model, once the chilling requirement was reached, growing degree days were accumulated and phenological stages determined based on growing degree thresholds derived from historical phenological observations. Critical temperatures for each stage were obtained from the literature and used to identify the occurrence freeze injury based on minimum temperature occurrence. In New York, temperature variance was the dominant climatological factor controlling freeze risk. A small {\textless}5{\%} increase in variance counteracted mean temperature increases of up to 5.5 °C leading to increased freeze risk despite warming temperatures. In other apple-growing regions in the northwestern and southeastern United States, changes in freeze risk were dominated by changes in mean temperature. This demonstrates that in some regions the risk of freeze injury under future climate conditions may be more sensitive to changes in temperature variance. Variance is currently not well simulated by climate models. Because freeze risk also increases when the chill requirement is reduced, adaptation decisions to transition to lower chill requirement cultivars may be ill-advised in northern climates similar to New York as even the highest chill requirements were satisfied under the conditions with the greatest warming. This was not the case in other regions where the adoption of lower chill requirement cultivars may be warranted.},
author = {DeGaetano, Arthur T.},
doi = {10.21273/HORTSCI11546-16},
issn = {0018-5345},
journal = {HortScience},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {90--96},
publisher = {American Society for Horticultural Science},
title = {{Regional Influences of Mean Temperature and Variance Changes on Freeze Risk in Apples}},
url = {https://journals.ashs.org/view/journals/hortsci/53/1/article-p90.xml},
volume = {53},
year = {2018}
}
@article{DeGaetano2017,
abstract = {A set of future extreme precipitation probabilities are developed for New York State based on different downscaling approaches and climate model projections. Based on nearly 50 downscaling method-climate model combinations, percent differences are computed between simulated extreme precipitation amounts for one historical (1970–1999) and three future (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) time periods. These percent change factors are then applied to the observed extremes to estimate future precipitation extremes. The results are presented to users via an interactive website (http://ny-idf-projections.nrcc.cornell.edu). As the engineering community is the primary user, the website displays intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) graphs depicting the: 1) mean projected extreme precipitation intensity, 2) range of future model projections, 3) distribution of observed extreme precipitation intensities, 4) confidence intervals about the observed values. One-hundred-year recurrence interval precipitation amounts exhibit a median increase of between 5 and 10{\%} across the state in the 2010–2039 period regardless of greenhouse gas concentration. By the 2040–2069 period, the median increase is on the order of 10–20{\%} for the high concentration case (RCP 8.5), but remains below 10{\%} if concentrations are lower (RCP 4.5). At the end of the century, all downscaling method climate model combinations indicate increases, with a median change of between 20 and 30{\%} in the case of high concentrations.},
author = {DeGaetano, Arthur T. and Castellano, Christopher M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2017.03.003},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {CMIP5,Downscaling,Extreme rainfall,Intensity-duration-frequency curves},
month = {jan},
pages = {23--35},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Future projections of extreme precipitation intensity–duration–frequency curves for climate adaptation planning in New York State}},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Degelia2015,
abstract = {Ice storms, defined by the US National Weather Service as freezing rain accumulations over 0.635?cm (0.25 inch), are often costly and destructive. Formation processes include the classic ?melting? process and supercooled warm rain process. Freezing rain is most commonly found ahead of a warm front or occlusion, where warm air is lifted over a cold shallow layer near the surface. Other synoptic patterns conducive to freezing rain include arctic fronts, isentropic lift over an arctic air mass, and cold air damming. Causes of spatial and temporal variations in freezing rain include, but are not limited to, terrain and proximity to water. Areas with the most occurrences of freezing rain in the United States include the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and Northeast/Appalachian regions. Empirical forecasting methods and numerical weather prediction are currently used to predict freezing rain. Successful forecasting of ice storm events requires evaluation of the thermodynamic profile of the atmosphere. Local effects such as proximity to water and topography must be taken into account, and non-linear processes such as latent heating and cooling must not be ignored. Ice accumulation can cause tree damage, which, in addition to breakage of electrical cables, can lead to power outages. Deposition of ice also impacts road, rail, and air travel, with associated economic costs due to lost hours as workers are unable to travel. Ice storms also provide a significant risk to human health and life, with falling debris and slippery surfaces being primary threats.},
author = {Degelia, Samuel K and Christian, Jordan I and Basara, Jeffrey B and Mitchell, Trevor J and Gardner, Daniel F and Jackson, Sara E and Ragland, John C and Mahan, Hayden R},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4525},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {United States,freezing rain,ice storm,weather impacts,winter weather},
month = {oct},
number = {8},
pages = {2811--2822},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{An overview of ice storms and their impact in the United States}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4525},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Delworth2014,
abstract = {Precipitation in austral autumn and winter has declined over parts of southern and southwestern Australia. Simulations with a high-resolution climate model reproduce many aspects of the observed rainfall decline as a response to anthropogenic changes in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases and ozone, and project significant further drying for southwest Australia over the twenty-first century.},
author = {Delworth, Thomas L. and Zeng, Fanrong},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2201},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Hydrology,Projection and prediction},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {583--587},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Regional rainfall decline in Australia attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and ozone levels}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2201},
volume = {7},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Deng2020,
abstract = {Near-surface (10 m) wind speed (NWS) plays a crucial role in many areas, including hydrological cycles, wind energy production, and air pollution, but what drives its multidecadal changes is still unclear. Using reanalysis datasets and model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP6), this study investigates recent trends in the annual mean NWS. The results show that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) terrestrial NWS experienced significant ( p {\textless} 0.1) decreasing trends during 1980–2010, when the Southern Hemisphere (SH) ocean NWS was characterized by significant ( p {\textless} 0.1) upward trends. However, during 2010–19, global NWS trends shifted in their sign: NWS trends over the NH land became positive, and trends over the SH tended to be negative. We propose that the strengthening of SH NWS during 1980–2010 was associated with an intensified Hadley cell over the SH, while the declining of NH land NWS could have been caused by changes in atmospheric circulation, alteration of vegetation and/or land use, and the accelerating Arctic warming. The CMIP6 model simulations further demonstrate that the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming plays an important role in triggering the NWS trends over the two hemispheres during 1980–2010 through modulating meridional atmospheric circulation. This study also points at the importance of anthropogenic GHG forcing and the natural Pacific decadal oscillation to the long-term trends and multidecadal variability in global NWS, respectively.},
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Deng, Kaiqiang and Azorin-Molina, Cesar and Minola, Lorenzo and Zhang, Gangfeng and Chen, Deliang},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0310.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2219--2234},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Global Near-Surface Wind Speed Changes over the Last Decades Revealed by Reanalyses and CMIP6 Model Simulations}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-20-0310.1/JCLI-D-20-0310.1.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/6/JCLI-D-20-0310.1.xml},
volume = {34},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Dennekamp2011,
abstract = {Bushfire smoke has the potential to affect millions of people and is therefore a major public health problem. The air pollutant that increases most significantly as a result of bushfire smoke is particulate matter (PM). During bushfire smoke episodes, PM concentrations are usually much higher than urban background concentrations, at which effects on respiratory health have been observed. The smoke can cover large areas including major cities and even small increases in the risk of respiratory health effects can cause large public health problems. The association between respiratory morbidity and exposure to bushfire smoke is consistent with the associations found with urban air pollution. Although using different methods, all studies looking at Emergency Department presentations in relation to a bushfire smoke event have found associations and most studies have also found an association with hospital admissions. However, only a few studies have distinguished between the effects of bushfire PM10 (particles with a median aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm) and background PM10. These studies suggest that PM10 from bushfire smoke is at least as toxic as urban PM10, but more research is needed.},
author = {Dennekamp, Martine and Abramson, Michael J.},
doi = {10.1111/j.1440-1843.2010.01868.x},
isbn = {1440-1843 (Electronic)$\backslash$n1323-7799 (Linking)},
issn = {13237799},
journal = {Respirology},
keywords = {bushfire,forest fire,respiratory health,wildfire},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {198--209},
pmid = {20920143},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{The effects of bushfire smoke on respiratory health}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1440-1843.2010.01868.x},
volume = {16},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Dennis2009,
abstract = {How vernalization - exposure to a period of cold - induces flowering in Arabidopsis has been intensively investigated at the genetic and moleular levels. Recent papers, including one in BMC Plant Biology, shed light on changes in gene regulation that occur on vernalization in cereals.},
author = {Dennis, Elizabeth S and Peacock, W James},
doi = {10.1186/jbiol156},
issn = {1475-4924},
journal = {Journal of Biology},
number = {6},
pages = {57},
pmid = {19591652},
publisher = {BioMed Central},
title = {{Vernalization in cereals}},
url = {http://jbiol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/jbiol156},
volume = {8},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Depietri2018,
author = {Depietri, Yaella and McPhearson, Timon},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2194-2},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {may},
number = {1-2},
pages = {95--108},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Changing urban risk: 140 years of climatic hazards in New York City}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2194-2},
volume = {148},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Derksen2019,
abstract = {This chapter presents evidence that snow, ice, and permafrost are changing across Canada because of increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation.},
address = {Ottawa, ON, Canada},
author = {Derksen, C. and Burgess, D. and Duguay, C. and Howell, S. and Mudryk, L. and Smith, S. and Thackeray, C. and Kirchmeier-Young, M.},
booktitle = {Canada's Changing Climate Report},
editor = {Bush, E. and Lemmen, D.S.},
keywords = {Canada,Climate change,freshwater,global warming,ice,oceans,permafrost,precipitation,snow,temperature},
pages = {194--260},
publisher = {Government of Canada},
title = {{Changes in Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Across Canada}},
url = {https://changingclimate.ca/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/11/CCCR-Chapter5-ChangesInSnowIcePermafrostAcrossCanada.pdf},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Deryng2016,
abstract = {Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2 ]) are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments and global crop models to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated [CO2 ] and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find CO2 effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]{\%}-27[7;37]{\%} (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]{\%} for rainfed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated [CO2 ] could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4-17{\%}). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modelling the effects of rising [CO2 ] across crop and hydrological modelling communities. {\textcopyright} 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited.},
author = {Deryng, D and Elliott, J and Folberth, C and M{\"{u}}ller, C and Pugh, T A M and Boote, K J and Conway, D and Ruane, A C and Gerten, D and Jones, J W and Khabarov, N and Olin, S and Schaphoff, S and Schmid, E and Yang, H and Rosenzweig, C},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2995},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {8},
pages = {786--790},
title = {{Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity}},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84979776724{\&}doi=10.1038{\%}2Fnclimate2995{\&}partnerID=40{\&}md5=3202fa5157b7ab6b5f4c05a88c9323a5},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Deryng2014,
abstract = {Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield ($\Delta$Y = −12.8 ± 6.7{\%} versus − 7.0 ± 5.3{\%} without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half ($\Delta$Y = 34.3 ± 13.5{\%} versus 72.0 ± 10.9{\%} without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter ($\Delta$Y = 15.3 ± 26.5{\%} versus 20.4 ± 22.1{\%} without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80{\%} of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.},
author = {Deryng, Delphine and Conway, Declan and Ramankutty, Navin and Price, Jeff and Warren, Rachel},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {034011},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/9/i=3/a=034011?key=crossref.dbe03166b591fb71af81975aae0cc1ee},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Dessens2007,
abstract = {The ANELFA scale for hailfall intensity is proposed on the model of the 6-class Fujita scale for tornadoes. It is based on more than three thousand point hailfalls measured by hailpads over a 16-year period in France. The class number of a hailfall is determined by the integer value of the largest measured hailstone diameter in cm, or by equivalence with current objects: A0 to A5 for pea, grape, pigeon's egg, walnut, hen's egg, orange. The class number is followed by a plus or minus sign if the ground is significantly more or less than half-covered by hailstones respectively. When the scale is applied to the ANELFA data, a log-normal distribution is found for the class distribution, allowing the frequency determination of the upper class ever observed until now at the hailpad stations.},
author = {Dessens, J. and Berthet, C. and Sanchez, J.L.},
doi = {10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2006.02.029},
issn = {0169-8095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
month = {feb},
number = {2-4},
pages = {132--139},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{A point hailfall classification based on hailpad measurements: The ANELFA scale}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809506001281},
volume = {83},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Deutsch2018,
abstract = {Insect pests substantially reduce yields of three staple grains-rice, maize, and wheat-but models assessing the agricultural impacts of global warming rarely consider crop losses to insects. We use established relationships between temperature and the population growth and metabolic rates of insects to estimate how and where climate warming will augment losses of rice, maize, and wheat to insects. Global yield losses of these grains are projected to increase by 10 to 25{\%} per degree of global mean surface warming. Crop losses will be most acute in areas where warming increases both population growth and metabolic rates of insects. These conditions are centered primarily in temperate regions, where most grain is produced.},
author = {Deutsch, Curtis A and Tewksbury, Joshua J and Tigchelaar, Michelle and Battisti, David S and Merrill, Scott C and Huey, Raymond B and Naylor, Rosamond L},
doi = {10.1126/science.aat3466},
issn = {1095-9203},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {6405},
pages = {916--919},
pmid = {30166490},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30166490},
volume = {361},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Devis2018,
author = {Devis, Annemarie and {Van Lipzig}, Nicole P M and Demuzere, Matthias},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabff7},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {064012},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Should future wind speed changes be taken into account in wind farm development?}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=6/a=064012?key=crossref.5e345ae32c63742a27c3219209eff9be},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dey2019,
abstract = {Mean and extreme northwest Australian (NWA) summertime rainfall has increased significantly since 1950. While previous studies have explored a range of possible factors impacting NWA rainfall, the causes of this increase and possible future changes remain uncertain. This study explores the increasing NWA summertime rainfall trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. By using a suite of models that contributed realizations of the historical period with various forcings, we explore the impact to this region of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions since 1950 on mean rainfall and three extreme rainfall indices. The observed NWA rainfall trend is better captured in models when all forcings are included compared to simulations with only greenhouse gas forcing or with only natural forcing, although the models have a large spread. We hypothesise that anthropogenic aerosols played a major role in the observed rainfall trends, and the associated increase in monsoonal flow, and hence historicalNat and historicalGHG simulations tend not to capture observed rainfall trend. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 models simulate a stronger increase in mean summer precipitation and extreme indices of NWA rainfall in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 simulations than in RCP2.6. The NWA region shows intensified extreme events with fewer heavy precipitation days, but the reliability of these projections in this region should be further tested with estimates of future anthropogenic aerosol changes.},
author = {Dey, Raktima and Lewis, Sophie C. and Abram, Nerilie J.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5788},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Australian rainfall,Australian summer monsoon index,CMIP5 models,precipitation extremes,precipitation trends},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {112--127},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Ltd},
title = {{Investigating observed northwest Australian rainfall trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 detection and attribution experiments}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5788},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{DiSante9999,
author = {{Di Sante}, Fabio and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo},
doi = {10.1002/joc.7014},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {EURO‐CORDEX,climate change,floods,runoff},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {3203--3221},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Projections of river floods in Europe using EURO-CORDEX, CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.7014},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@article{DiVirgilio2019,
abstract = {Abstract Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) wildfires cause devastation in many regions globally. Given that fire-atmosphere coupling is associated with pyroCbs, future changes in coincident high index values of atmospheric instability and dryness (C-Haines) and near-surface fire weather are assessed for southeastern Australia using a regional climate projection ensemble. We show that observed pyroCb events occur predominantly on forested, rugged landscapes during extreme C-Haines conditions, but over a wide range of surface fire weather conditions. Statistically significant increases in the number of days where both C-Haines and near-surface fire weather values are conducive to pyroCb development are projected across southeastern Australia, predominantly for November (spring), and less strongly for December (summer) in 2060-2079 versus 1990-2009, with future C-Haines increases linked to increased 850-hPa dewpoint depression. The increased future occurrence of conditions conducive to pyroCb development and their extension into spring have implications for mitigating these dangerous wildfires and urbanizing fire-prone landscapes.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2019GL083699},
author = {{Di Virgilio}, Giovanni and Evans, Jason P and Blake, Stephanie A P and Armstrong, Matthew and Dowdy, Andrew J and Sharples, Jason and McRae, Rick},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083699},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {atmospheric instability,dewpoint depression,fire weather,natural hazards,pyrocumulonimbus,regional climate modeling},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {8517--8526},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083699},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Diaz2008,
abstract = {Dead zones in the coastal oceans have spread exponentially since the 1960s and have serious consequences for ecosystem functioning. The formation of dead zones has been exacerbated by the increase in primary production and consequent worldwide coastal eutrophication fueled by riverine runoff of fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels. Enhanced primary production results in an accumulation of particulate organic matter, which encourages microbial activity and the consumption of dissolved oxygen in bottom waters. Dead zones have now been reported from more than 400 systems, affecting a total area of more than 245,000 square kilometers, and are probably a key stressor on marine ecosystems.},
author = {Diaz, Robert J and Rosenberg, Rutger},
doi = {10.1126/science.1156401},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {5891},
pages = {926--929},
pmid = {18703733},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18703733 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1156401},
volume = {321},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Dibike2012,
author = {Dibike, Yonas and Prowse, Terry and Bonsal, Barrie and de Rham, Laurent and Saloranta, Tuomo},
doi = {10.1002/joc.2300},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {climate change,climate model,lake‐ice cover,lake‐ice model,lake‐ice phenology},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {695--709},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Simulation of North American lake-ice cover characteristics under contemporary and future climate conditions}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.2300},
volume = {32},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Diedhiou2018,
author = {Diedhiou, Arona and Bichet, Adeline and Wartenburger, Richard and Seneviratne, Sonia I and Rowell, David P and Sylla, Mouhamadou B and Diallo, Ismaila and Todzo, Stella and Tour{\'{e}}, N'datchoh E and Camara, Moctar and Ngatchah, Benjamin Ngounou and Kane, Ndjido A and Tall, Laure and Affholder, Fran{\c{c}}ois},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac3e5},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {065020},
title = {{Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming}},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Diffenbaugh2013a,
abstract = {Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. For spring and autumn, these robust increases emerge before mean global warming of 2 °C above the preindustrial baseline. We also find that days with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions that contribute to the most severe events, including tornadoes. In contrast, whereas expected decreases in mean wind shear have been used to argue for a negative influence of global warming on severe thunderstorms, we find that decreases in shear are in fact concentrated in days with low CAPE and therefore do not decrease the total occurrence of severe environments. Further, we find that the shift toward high CAPE is most concentrated in days with low convective inhibition, increasing the occurrence of high-CAPE/low-convective inhibition days. The fact that the projected increases in severe environments are robust across a suite of climate models, emerge in response to relatively moderate global warming, and result from robust physical changes suggests that continued increases in greenhouse forcing are likely to increase severe thunderstorm occurrence, thereby increasing the risk of thunderstorm-related damage.},
author = {Diffenbaugh, Noah S and Scherer, Martin and Trapp, Robert J},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1307758110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {CMIP5,GCM,hazards,severe weather},
month = {oct},
number = {41},
pages = {16361--16366},
pmid = {24062439},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24062439 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC3799355 http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1307758110},
volume = {110},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Dikanski2016,
author = {Dikanski, Hristo and Hagen-Zanker, Alex and Imam, Boulent and Avery, Kate},
doi = {10.1680/jensu.15.00021},
issn = {1478-4629},
journal = {Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Engineering Sustainability},
month = {jun},
number = {5},
pages = {237--248},
title = {{Climate change impacts on railway structures: bridge scour}},
url = {http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/10.1680/jensu.15.00021},
volume = {170},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Diro2014,
author = {Diro, G. T. and Giorgi, F. and Fuentes-Franco, R. and Walsh, K. J. E. and Giuliani, G. and Coppola, E.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1155-7},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {79--94},
title = {{Tropical cyclones in a regional climate change projection with RegCM4 over the CORDEX Central America domain}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1155-7},
volume = {125},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Dittus2014a,
abstract = {Understanding changes in frost events is vital given their impacts on crops. This study examines monthly frost day trends in southern Australia, using Australian homogeneous temperature stations. Century-scale annual frost day trends show decreases consistent with expectations in a warming climate. The past 32 years however exhibit more complex and seemingly contradictory changes. At some locations increases in annual number of frost days are observed, while other locations show decreases more consistent with the longer term trend. Assessing monthly trends, we find a consistent increase in frost days at all stations in southeast Australia in late autumn (May). The trends are downwards during the winter months (June, July and August) indicating a decrease in the number of frost days. In early spring (August and September), the sign of the trend varies substantially between stations. Similarly, southwest Western Australia has experienced increases in the monthly number of frost days. However, in contrast to southeast Australia, the increases are observed throughout the second half of the cold season. We examine the relationship with the concurrent recent drying since the 1990s in southeast Australia and since the 1970s in southwest Western Australia. In dry periods during the winter half year, clear-sky conditions are expected to occur more frequently, leading to larger diurnal temperature ranges and colder night-time temperatures. This study provides further evidence that southeastern Australian frost day increases are linked to concurrent rainfall declines by analysing the relationship between number of frost days and number of precipitation days.},
author = {Dittus, A and Karoly, D and Lewis, S and Alexander, L},
doi = {10.22499/2.6404.002},
issn = {1836716X},
journal = {Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal},
number = {4},
pages = {261--271},
title = {{An investigation of some unexpected frost day increases in southern Australia}},
url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/docs/2014/dittus.pdf},
volume = {64},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Dobney2010,
author = {Dobney, K and Baker, C J and Chapman, L and Quinn, A D},
doi = {10.1243/09544097JRRT292},
issn = {0954-4097},
journal = {Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {25--34},
title = {{The future cost to the United Kingdom's railway network of heat-related delays and buckles caused by the predicted increase in high summer temperatures owing to climate change}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1243/09544097JRRT292},
volume = {224},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Dobricic2020,
author = {Dobricic, Srdjan and Russo, Simone and Pozzoli, Luca and Wilson, Julian and Vignati, Elisabetta},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab6398},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {024022},
title = {{Increasing occurrence of heat waves in the terrestrial Arctic}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6398},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Dobrowski2016,
abstract = {Climate change velocity describes organism exposure to a modified climate, but as a distance-based metric, fails to consider that trajectories traverse dissimilar environments. Here, the authors calculate minimum cumulative exposure, finding that mountainous regions are particularly vulnerable.},
author = {Dobrowski, Solomon Z. and Parks, Sean A.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms12349},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Climate,Projection and prediction,change ecology,change impacts},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {12349},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms12349},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Dobrowski2013,
abstract = {Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on‐going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916–2005). Vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. Our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. Instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate‐driven species range shifts during the 20th century.},
author = {Dobrowski, Solomon Z. and Abatzoglou, John and Swanson, Alan K. and Greenberg, Jonathan A. and Mynsberge, Alison R. and Holden, Zachary A. and Schwartz, Michael K.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.12026},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {climate change impacts,climate change velocity,climate velocity vectors,climatic water balance},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {241--251},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.12026},
volume = {19},
year = {2013}
}
@techreport{DOE2015,
author = {DOE},
pages = {193},
publisher = {U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)},
series = {DOE/EPSA-0005},
title = {{Climate Change and the U.S. Energy Sector: Regional Vulnerabilities and Resilience Solutions}},
url = {https://www.infrastructureusa.org/climate-change-and-the-u-s-energy-sector-regional-vulnerabilities-and-resilience-solutions/},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Dominguez-Castro2018,
abstract = {Wet and dry extremes in Quito (Ecuador) over the last 400 years are studied using two sources of information: the longest available instrumental rainfall series in northern South America (1891–2015) and the rogation ceremonies recorded in the Chapter Acts of Quito (1600–1822). The rogation ceremonies present a seasonal distribution that is related to the crops and to the typical distribution of rainfall over the year. August was the month with most pro serenitate rogations because farmers needed dry conditions for harvest, whereas excess rainfall at this time would lead to rotting and loss of the harvest. The pro pluvia rogations were markedly more frequent during January and February when farmers needed rain for sowing. This relationship between climate and farming activities makes Quito's rogations a good proxy for drought and extreme wet conditions during January–February–March (JFM) and wet conditions during June–July–August (JJA). Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was computed for the instrumental period. The 3-month SPI showed a significant linear trend over the last 125 years (−0.4 per decade, p = 0.009). The five wettest periods were 1651–1657, 1663–1669, 1913–1919, 1950–1956, and 1981–1985. Droughts have intensified in frequency and length since the middle of the 20th century. The most important drought periods were 1692–1701, 1718–1723, 1976–1980, 1990–1993, and 2001–2006. The severest drought during the last 400 years occurred in 1692–1701 when a great famine devastated Quito and affected most of the central Andes.},
author = {Dom{\'{i}}nguez-Castro, F. and Garc{\'{i}}a-Herrera, R. and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5312},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Quito,SPI,documentary sources,droughts,equatorial Andes,rogation ceremonies},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {2006--2014},
title = {{Wet and dry extremes in Quito (Ecuador) since the 17th century}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5312},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Domingos2016,
author = {Domingos, Filipe and L{\'{u}}cio, Freires and Grasso, Veronica},
doi = {10.1016/J.CLISER.2016.09.001},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {sep},
pages = {52--53},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880716300541},
volume = {2-3},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Donat2016,
author = {Donat, Markus G. and Alexander, Lisa V. and Herold, Nicholas and Dittus, Andrea J.},
doi = {10.1002/2016JD025480},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {11174--11189},
title = {{Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016JD025480},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Doney2012,
abstract = {In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.},
author = {Doney, Scott C. and Ruckelshaus, Mary and Duffy, J Emmett and Barry, James P. and Chan, Francis and English, Chad A. and Galindo, Heather M. and Grebmeier, Jacqueline M. and Hollowed, Anne B. and Knowlton, Nancy and Others and {Emmett Duffy}, J. and Barry, James P. and Chan, Francis and English, Chad A. and Galindo, Heather M. and Grebmeier, Jacqueline M. and Hollowed, Anne B. and Knowlton, Nancy and Polovina, Jeffrey and Rabalais, Nancy N. and Sydeman, William J. and Talley, Lynne D.},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611},
issn = {1941-1405},
journal = {Annual Review of Marine Science},
keywords = {Adaptation,Animals,Carbon Dioxide,Carbon Dioxide: chemistry,Climate Change,Ecosystem,Oceans and Seas,Physiological,Seawater,Seawater: chemistry},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {11--37},
pmid = {22457967},
publisher = {Annual Reviews},
title = {{Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22457967{\%}5Cnhttp://www.annualreviews.org/eprint/fzUZd7Z748TeHmB7p8cn/full/10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611 http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611},
volume = {4},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Dong2018,
abstract = {Multiple studies have reported a shift in the trend of warm season rainfall over arid eastern–central Asia (AECA) around the turn of the new century, from increasing over the second half of the twentieth century to decreasing during the early years of the twenty-first. Here, a closer look based on multiple precipitation datasets reveals important regional disparities in these changes. Warm-season rainfall increased over both basin areas and mountain ranges during 1961–1998 due to enhanced moisture flux convergence associated with changes in the large-scale circulation and increases in atmospheric moisture content. Despite a significant decrease in warm-season precipitation over the high mountain ranges after the year 1998, warm season rainfall has remained large over low-lying basin areas. This discrepancy, which is also reflected in changes in river flow, soil moisture, and vegetation, primarily results from disparate responses to enhanced warming in the mountain and basin areas of AECA. In addition to changes in the prevailing circulation and moisture transport patterns, the decrease in precipitation over the mountains has occurred mainly because increases in local water vapor saturation capacity (which scales with temperature) have outpaced the available moisture supply, reducing relative humidity and suppressing precipitation. By contrast, rainfall over basin areas has been maintained by accelerated moisture recycling driven by rapid glacier retreat, snow melt, and irrigation expansion. This trend is unsustainable and is likely to reverse as these cryospheric buffers disappear, with potentially catastrophic implications for local agriculture and ecology.},
author = {Dong, Wenhao and Lin, Yanluan and Wright, Jonathon S. and Xie, Yuanyu and Ming, Yi and Zhang, Han and Chen, Rensheng and Chen, Yaning and Xu, Fanghua and Lin, Namei and Yu, Chaoqing and Zhang, Bin and Jin, Shuang and Yang, Kun and Li, Zhongqin and Guo, Jianping and Wang, Lei and Lin, Guanghui},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-31246-3},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {13051},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Regional disparities in warm season rainfall changes over arid eastern–central Asia}},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{DongSiyan;SunYing;AguilarEnric;ZhangXuebin;PetersonThomasC.;SongLianchun;Zhang2018,
abstract = {This study presents trends in a newly compiled temperature extreme indices dataset for Asia covering the period of 1958–2012. Daily data were homogenized prior to the calculation of the indices. A clear warming trend was observed in all indices, which is consistent with the global warming. In most of the indices, larger warming was observed at high latitudes than at low latitudes. We also compared observations with simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 for some indices using an optimal fingerprinting method. These indices include the number of days with daily maximum or minimum temperatures greater than their 90th percentiles or smaller than their 10th percentiles, the annual highest daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and the annual lowest daily maximum and minimum temperatures. We determined that the warming trend was inconsistent with the natural variability of the climate system but agreed with climate responses to external forcing as simulated by the models. The anthropogenic and natural signals could be detected and separated from each other in the region for almost all indices, indicating the robustness of the warming signal as well as the attribution of warming to external causes.},
author = {Dong, Siyan and Sun, Ying and Aguilar, Enric and Zhang, Xuebin and Peterson, Thomas C. and Song, Lianchun and Zhang, Yingxian},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3927-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Asia,climate,data collection,global warming,latitude,models,temperature},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {339--353},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Observed changes in temperature extremes over Asia and their attribution}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3927-z},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dosio2017b,
abstract = {The most severe effects of global warning will be related to the frequency and severity of extreme events. We provide an analysis of projections of temperature and related extreme events for Africa based on a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX). Results are presented not only by means of widely used indices but also with a recently developed Heat Wave Magnitude Index-daily (HWMId), which takes into account both heat wave duration and intensity. Results show that under RCP8.5, warming of more than 3.5 {\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C is projected in JFM over most of the continent, whereas in JAS temperatures over large part of Northern Africa, the Sahara and the Arabian peninsula are projected to increase up to 6 {\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C. Large increase in in the number of warm days (Tx90p) is found over sub equatorial Africa, with values up to more than 90 {\{}{\%}{\}} in JAS, and more than 80 {\{}{\%}{\}} in JFM over e.g., the gulf of Guinea, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Ethiopia. Changes in Tn90p (warm nights) are usually larger, with some models projecting Tn90p reaching 95 {\{}{\%}{\}} starting from around 2060 even under RCP4.5 over the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel. Results also show that the total length of heat spells projected to occur normally (i.e. once every 2 years) under RCP8.5 may be longer than those occurring once every 30 years under the lower emission scenario. By employing the recently developed HWMId index, it is possible to investigate the relationship between heat wave length ad intensity; in particular it is shown that very intense heat waves such as that occurring over the Horn of Africa may have values of HWMId larger than that of longer, but relatively weak, heat waves over West Africa.},
author = {Dosio, Alessandro},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3355-5},
isbn = {1432-0894},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CORDEX-Africa,Extreme temperature statistics,HWMId,Heat Waves,Regional Climate Models},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {493--519},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3355-5},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dosio2019,
abstract = {We employ a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the COordinated Regional-climate Downscaling EXperiment to explore two questions: (1) what can we know about the future precipitation characteristics over Africa? and (2) does this information differ from that derived from the driving Global Climate Models (GCMs)? By taking into account both the statistical significance of the change and the models' agreement on its sign, we identify regions where the projected climate change signal is robust, suggesting confidence that the precipitation characteristics will change, and those where changes in the precipitation statistics are non-significant. Results show that, when spatially averaged, the RCMs median change is usually in agreement with that of the GCMs ensemble: even though the change in seasonal mean precipitation may differ, in some cases, other precipitation characteristics (e.g., intensity, frequency, and duration of dry and wet spells) show the same tendency. When the robust change (i.e., the value of the change averaged only over the land points where it is robust) is compared between the GCMs and RCMs, similarities are striking, indicating that, although with some uncertainty on the geographical extent, GCMs and RCMs project a consistent future. Potential added value of downscaling future climate projections (i.e., non-negligible fine-scale information that is absent in the lower resolution simulations) is found for instance over the Ethiopian highlands, where the RCM ensemble shows a robust decrease in mean precipitation in contrast with the GCMs results. This discrepancy may be associated with the better representation of topographical details that are missing in the large scale GCMs. The impact of the heterogeneity of the GCM–RCM matrix on the results has been also investigated; we found that, for most regions and indices, where results are robust or non-significant, they are so independently on the choice of the RCM or GCM. However, there are cases, especially over Central Africa and parts of West Africa, where results are uncertain, i.e. most of the RCMs project a statistically significant change but they do not agree on its sign. In these cases, especially where results are clearly clustered according to the RCM, there is not a simple way of subsampling the model ensemble in order to reduce the uncertainty or to infer a more robust result.},
author = {Dosio, Alessandro and Jones, Richard G and Jack, Christopher and Lennard, Christopher and Nikulin, Grigory and Hewitson, Bruce},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04900-3},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {9},
pages = {5833--5858},
title = {{What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04900-3},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dosio2018,
abstract = {Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increasedmortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 ◦C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 ◦Cworld,under 2 ◦Cwarming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double overmost of the globe. In a 1.5 ◦C world, 13.8{\%}of the world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9{\%}) under 2 ◦Cwarming, i.e.a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5 ◦C will also result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and ∼65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0{\%} of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5 ◦C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2{\%}) in a 2 ◦Cworld. With current emission trends threatening even the 2 ◦C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5 ◦C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat. 1.},
author = {Dosio, Alessandro and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Fischer, Erich M. and Wyser, Klaus},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab827},
isbn = {1748-9326},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {1.5 °C and 2°C globalwarming,1.5 ◦C and 2◦C globalwarming,HWMId,extreme heat waves},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {054006},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=5/a=054006?key=crossref.6e11868e5500fc6a3912b1404e7fe3b1},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dosio2016b,
abstract = {Abstract Statistical bias-adjustment of climate models' outputs is being increasingly used for assessing the impact of climate change on several sectors. It is known that these techniques may alter the mean climate signal of the adjusted variable; however, the effect on the projected occurrence of climate extremes is less commonly investigated. Here the outputs of an ensemble of high-resolution (0.11°) regional climate models (RCM) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) have been bias adjusted, and a number of climate indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices have been calculated for the present (1981?2010) and future (2071?2100) climate. Indices include absolute-thresholds indices, percentile-based indices, and indices based on the duration of an event. Results show that absolute-threshold indices are largely affected by bias adjustment, as they depend strongly on both the present mean climate value (usually largely biased in the original RCMs) and its shift under climate change. The change of percentile-based indices is less affected by bias adjustment, as that of indices based on the duration of an event (e.g., consecutive dry days or heat waves) although the present climate value can differ between original and bias-adjusted results. Indices like R95ptot (the total amount of precipitation larger than the 95th reference percentile) are largely affected by bias adjustment, although, when analyzing an ensemble of RCMs, the differences are usually smaller than, or comparable to, the intermodel variability.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/2015JD024411},
author = {Dosio, Alessandro},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD024411},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {EURO-CORDEX,bias adjustment,climate change indices},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5488--5511},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Projections of climate change indices of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of bias-adjusted high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024411},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Dottori2018,
abstract = {River floods are among some of the costliest natural disasters1, but their socio-economic impacts under contrasting warming levels remain little explored2. Here, using a multi-model framework, we estimate human losses, direct economic damage and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming)3 and socio-economic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in the absence of future adaptation. With temperature increases of 1.5 °C, depending on the socio-economic scenario, it is found that human losses from flooding could rise by 70–83{\%}, direct flood damage by 160–240{\%}, with a relative welfare reduction between 0.23 and 0.29{\%}. In a 2 °C world, by contrast, the death toll is 50{\%} higher, direct economic damage doubles and welfare losses grow to 0.4{\%}. Impacts are notably higher under 3 C warming, but at the same time, variability between ensemble members also increases, leading to greater uncertainty regarding flood impacts at higher warming levels. Flood impacts are further shown to have an uneven regional distribution, with the greatest losses observed in the Asian continent at all analysed warming levels. It is clear that increased adaptation and mitigation efforts—perhaps through infrastructural investment4—are needed to offset increasing risk of river floods in the future.},
author = {Dottori, Francesco and Szewczyk, Wojciech and Ciscar, Juan-Carlos and Zhao, Fang and Alfieri, Lorenzo and Hirabayashi, Yukiko and Bianchi, Alessandra and Mongelli, Ignazio and Frieler, Katja and Betts, Richard A. and Feyen, Luc},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z},
isbn = {1758-678X 1758-6798},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {781--786},
title = {{Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0257-z},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dowdy2018,
abstract = { AbstractLong-term variations in fire weather conditions are examined throughout Australia from gridded daily data from 1950 to 2016. The McArthur forest fire danger index is used to represent fire weather conditions throughout this 67-yr period, calculated on the basis of a gridded analysis of observations over this time period. This is a complementary approach to previous studies (e.g., those based primarily on model output, reanalysis, or individual station locations), providing a spatially continuous and long-term observations-based dataset to expand on previous research and produce climatological guidance information for planning agencies. Long-term changes in fire weather conditions are apparent in many regions. In particular, there is a clear trend toward more dangerous conditions during spring and summer in southern Australia, including increased frequency and magnitude of extremes, as well as indicating an earlier start to the fire season. Changes in fire weather conditions are attributable at least in part to anthropogenic climate change, including in relation to increasing temperatures. The influence of El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on fire weather conditions is found to be broadly consistent with previous studies (indicating more severe fire weather in general for El Ni{\~{n}}o conditions than for La Ni{\~{n}}a conditions), but it is demonstrated that this relationship is highly variable (depending on season and region) and that there is considerable potential in almost all regions of Australia for long-range prediction of fire weather (e.g., multiweek and seasonal forecasting). It is intended that improved understanding of the climatological variability of fire weather conditions will help lead to better preparedness for risks associated with dangerous wildfires in Australia. },
author = {Dowdy, Andrew J},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
number = {2},
pages = {221--234},
title = {{Climatological Variability of Fire Weather in Australia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1},
volume = {57},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dowdy2018a,
abstract = {Abstract Extreme wildfires with strong convective processes in their plumes have recently led to disastrous impacts on various regions of the world. The Continuous Haines index (CH) is used in Australia to represent vertical atmospheric stability and humidity measures relating to pyroconvective processes. CH climatology is examined here using reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016, revealing large spatial and seasonal variations throughout Australia. Various measures of severity are investigated, including regionally specific thresholds. CH is combined with near-surface fire weather conditions, as a type of compound event, and is examined in relation to environmental conditions associated with pyroconvection. Significant long-term changes in CH are found for some regions and seasons, with these changes corresponding to changes in near-surface conditions in some cases. In particular, an increased risk of pyroconvection is identified for southeast Australia during spring and summer, due to decreased vertical atmospheric stability and humidity combined with more severe near-surface conditions.},
author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Pepler, Acacia},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076654},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,compound extremes,extreme events,fire-atmosphere feedback,pyroconvection,wildfires},
number = {4},
pages = {2005--2013},
title = {{Pyroconvection Risk in Australia: Climatological Changes in Atmospheric Stability and Surface Fire Weather Conditions}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL076654},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dowdy2019b,
abstract = {Intense cyclones often result in severe impacts on mid-latitude coastal regions of southeastern Australia, including those due to associated natural hazards such as extreme winds, ocean waves, storm surges, precipitation, flooding, erosion, lightning and tornadoes in some cases. These low-pressure systems, known as east coast lows (ECLs), have been examined in a wide range of different studies, with considerable variations between such studies in what they consider to be an ECL, and their findings on the characteristics of these storm systems. Here we present reviews of literature and other information such as operational forecasting approaches, which are then used to produce a comprehensive synthesis of knowledge on ECLs and associated weather and ocean extremes. This includes aspects such as their definition, formation, meteorology, climatology and drivers of variability from short-term weather time scales up to long-term historical climate trends and future projections. Australian ECLs are also considered here in relation to similar phenomena from other regions of the world. A definition based on this synthesis of knowledge is as follows: ECLs are cyclones near southeastern Australia that can be caused by both mid-latitude and tropical influences over a range of levels in the atmosphere; Intense ECLs have at least one major hazard associated with their occurrence, including extreme winds, waves, rain or flooding. Knowledge gaps are examined and used to provide recommendations for future research priorities. This study is intended to lead to improved guidance and preparedness in relation to the impacts of these storms.},
author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Pepler, Acacia and {Di Luca}, Alejandro and Cavicchia, Leone and Mills, Graham and Evans, Jason P and Louis, Simon and McInnes, Kathleen L and Walsh, Kevin},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04836-8},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {7},
pages = {4887--4910},
title = {{Review of Australian east coast low pressure systems and associated extremes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04836-8},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dowdy2019a,
abstract = {Extreme wildfires have recently caused disastrous impacts in Australia and other regions of the world, including events with strong convective processes in their plumes (i.e., strong pyroconvection). Dangerous wildfire events such as these could potentially be influenced by anthropogenic climate change, however, there are large knowledge gaps on how these events might change in the future. The McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is used to represent near-surface weather conditions and the Continuous Haines index (CH) is used here to represent lower to mid-tropospheric vertical atmospheric stability and humidity measures relevant to dangerous wildfires and pyroconvective processes. Projected changes in extreme measures of CH and FFDI are examined using a multi-method approach, including an ensemble of global climate models together with two ensembles of regional climate models. The projections show a clear trend towards more dangerous near-surface fire weather conditions for Australia based on the FFDI, as well as increased pyroconvection risk factors for some regions of southern Australia based on the CH. These results have implications for fields such as disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation, ecology, policy and planning, noting that improved knowledge on how climate change can influence extreme wildfires can help reduce future impacts of these events.},
author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Ye, Hua and Pepler, Acacia and Thatcher, Marcus and Osbrough, Stacey L and Evans, Jason P and {Di Virgilio}, Giovanni and McCarthy, Nicholas},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-46362-x},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {10073},
title = {{Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46362-x},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Dreessen2016,
abstract = {ABSTRACTCanadian wildfire smoke impacted air quality across the northern Mid-Atlantic (MA) of the United States during June 9–12, 2015. A multiday exceedance of the new 2015 70-ppb National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (O3) followed, resulting in Maryland being incompliant with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) revised 2015 O3 NAAQS. Surface in situ, balloon-borne, and remote sensing observations monitored the impact of the wildfire smoke at Maryland air quality monitoring sites. At peak smoke concentrations in Maryland, wildfire-attributable volatile organic compounds (VOCs) more than doubled, while non-NOx oxides of nitrogen (NOz) tripled, suggesting long range transport of NOx within the smoke plume. Peak daily average PM2.5 was 32.5 µg m−3 with large fractions coming from black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), with a synonymous increase in carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations. Measurements indicate that smoke tracers at the surface were spatially and temporally correlate...},
author = {Dreessen, Joel and Sullivan, John and Delgado, Ruben},
doi = {10.1080/10962247.2016.1161674},
issn = {1096-2247},
journal = {Journal of the Air {\&} Waste Management Association},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {842--862},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Observations and impacts of transported Canadian wildfire smoke on ozone and aerosol air quality in the Maryland region on June 9–12, 2015}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10962247.2016.1161674},
volume = {66},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Drenkhan2019,
abstract = {Rapidly growing lakes in deglaciating mountain regions represent both: emerging risks and options for human livelihoods. In the Andes of Peru, seasonal water scarcity and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) pose a serious threat for highly exposed and vulnerable people. In addition, water demand is growing due to increasing irrigated agriculture, population and hydropower production. In this context, we assess current and future water risks and management options for the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin, Southern Peru. Therefore, the GLOF susceptibility of glacier lakes and the potential maximum reach of damaging flow were analysed. Eighteen out of 134 current and another six out of 20 future glacier lakes were identified as potentially highly susceptible to GLOF. A total of eight existing and one possible future lakes indicate very high risk potentials. Furthermore, a comprehensive surface water balance scheme for five selected subcatchments reveals that future river discharge could be reduced by some 2–11{\%} (7–14{\%}) until 2050 (2100). Particularly in headwaters and during dry seasons, glacier contribution representing roughly 15–25{\%} to total streamflow is crucial and would substantially decrease to below 4–22{\%} (1–3{\%}) until 2050 (2100) with strong glacier shrinkage under intense warming (scenario RCP8.5). In the middle and lower basin, long-term water availability could be jeopardized by growing irrigated agriculture and hydropower capacity. Combining a GLOF and water shortage risk assessment, three key hotspots of current and future water risks were identified. In the context of the identified risks and complex intertwining of water users involving conflict potentials, robust adaptation planning is necessary within an integrative water and risk management framework. Therefore, it is crucial to incorporate ancestral and local knowledge for long-term management planning and implementation. This process should take place beyond temporarily limited governmental and project agency and strengthen broad acceptance of corresponding measures for adapting to hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes.},
author = {Drenkhan, Fabian and Huggel, Christian and Guardamino, Luc{\'{i}}a and Haeberli, Wilfried},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.070},
issn = {00489697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
keywords = {GLOF,Glacier shrinkage,Multi-purpose project,New lakes,Sensitivity analysis,Water management},
month = {may},
pages = {465--483},
title = {{Managing risks and future options from new lakes in the deglaciating Andes of Peru: The example of the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969719305522},
volume = {665},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Drewes2018,
abstract = {Rock glaciers are permafrost or glacial landforms of debris and ice that deform under the influence of gravity. Recent estimates hold that, in the semiarid Chilean Andes for example, active rock glaciers store more water than glaciers. However, little is known about how many rock glaciers might decay because of global warming and how much this decay might contribute to water and sediment release. We investigated an inventory of {\textgreater}6500 rock glaciers in the Argentinian Andes, spanning the climatic gradient from the Desert Andes to cold-temperate Tierra del Fuego. We used active rock glaciers as a diagnostic of permafrost, assuming that the toes mark the 0 °C isotherm in climate scenarios for the twenty-first century and their impact on freezing conditions near the rock glacier toes. We find that, under future worst case warming, up to 95{\%} of rock glaciers in the southern Desert Andes and in the Central Andes will rest in areas above 0 °C and that this freezing level might move up more than twice as much ({\~{}}500 m) as during the entire Holocene ({\~{}}200 m). Many active rock glaciers are already well below the current freezing level and exemplify how local controls may confound regional prognoses. A Bayesian Multifactor Analysis of Variance further shows that only in the Central Andes are the toes of active rock glaciers credibly higher than those of inactive ones. Elsewhere in the Andes, active and inactive rock glaciers occupy indistinguishable elevation bands, regardless of aspect, the formation mechanism, or shape of rock glaciers. The state of rock glacier activity predicts differences in elevations of toes to 140 m at best so that regional inference of the distribution of discontinuous permafrost from rock-glacier toes cannot be more accurate than this in the Argentinian Andes. We conclude that the Central Andes—where rock glaciers are largest, cover the most area, and have a greater density than glaciers—is likely to experience the most widespread disturbance to the thermal regime of the twenty-first century.},
author = {Drewes, Julia and Moreiras, Stella and Korup, Oliver},
doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.09.005},
issn = {0169555X},
journal = {Geomorphology},
keywords = {Argentina,Climate change,Permafrost,Rock glacier},
month = {dec},
pages = {13--24},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Permafrost activity and atmospheric warming in the Argentinian Andes}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169555X18303611},
volume = {323},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Driouech9999,
author = {Driouech, Fatima and Stafi, Hafid and Khouakhi, Abdou and Moutia, Sara and Badi, Wafae and ElRhaz, Khalid and Chehbouni, Abdelghani},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6734},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {S1},
pages = {E855-- E874},
title = {{Recent observed country-wide climate trends in Morocco}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6734},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Du2017,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Abstract. A new automated method enabling consistent satellite assessment of seasonal lake ice phenology at 5 km resolution was developed for all lake pixels (water coverage  ≥  90 {\%}) in the Northern Hemisphere using 36.5 GHz H-polarized brightness temperature (Tb) observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR-E/2) sensors. The lake phenology metrics include seasonal timing and duration of annual ice cover. A moving t test (MTT) algorithm allows for automated lake ice retrievals with daily temporal fidelity and 5 km resolution gridding. The resulting ice phenology record shows strong agreement with available ground-based observations from the Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Database (95.4 {\%} temporal agreement) and favorable correlations (R) with alternative ice phenology records from the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (R = 0.84 for water clear of ice (WCI) dates; R = 0.41 for complete freeze over (CFO) dates) and Canadian Ice Service (R = 0.86 for WCI dates; R = 0.69 for CFO dates). Analysis of the resulting 12-year (2002–2015) AMSR-E/2 ice record indicates increasingly shorter ice cover duration for 43 out of 71 (60.6 {\%}) Northern Hemisphere lakes examined, with significant (p  {\textless}  0.05) regional trends toward earlier ice melting for only five lakes. Higher-latitude lakes reveal more widespread and larger trends toward shorter ice cover duration than lower-latitude lakes, consistent with enhanced polar warming. This study documents a new satellite-based approach for rapid assessment and regional monitoring of seasonal ice cover changes over large lakes, with resulting accuracy suitable for global change studies.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Du, Jinyang and Kimball, John S. and Duguay, Claude and Kim, Youngwook and Watts, Jennifer D.},
doi = {10.5194/tc-11-47-2017},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {47--63},
title = {{Satellite microwave assessment of Northern Hemisphere lake ice phenology from 2002 to 2015}},
url = {https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/47/2017/},
volume = {11},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Dudley2017a,
abstract = {Changes in snowmelt-related streamflow timing have implications for water availability and use as well as ecologically relevant shifts in streamflow. Historical trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing (winter-spring center volume date, WSCVD) were computed for minimally disturbed river basins in the conterminous United States. WSCVD was computed by summing daily streamflow for a seasonal window then calculating the day that half of the seasonal volume had flowed past the gage. We used basins where at least 30 percent of annual precipitation was received as snow, and streamflow data were restricted to regionally based winter-spring periods to focus the analyses on snowmelt-related streamflow. Trends over time in WSCVD at gages in the eastern U.S. were relatively homogenous in magnitude and direction and statistically significant; median WSCVD was earlier by 8.2days (1.1days/decade) and 8.6days (1.6days/decade) for 1940–2014 and 1960–2014 periods respectively. Fewer trends in the West were significant though most trends indicated earlier WSCVD over time. Trends at low-to-mid elevation ({\textless}1600m) basins in the West, predominantly located in the Northwest, had median earlier WSCVD by 6.8days (1940–2014, 0.9days/decade) and 3.4days (1960–2014, 0.6days/decade). Streamflow timing at high-elevation (⩾1600m) basins in the West had median earlier WSCVD by 4.0days (1940–2014, 0.5days/decade) and 5.2days (1960–2014, 0.9days/decade). Trends toward earlier WSCVD in the Northwest were not statistically significant, differing from previous studies that observed many large and (or) significant trends in this region. Much of this difference is likely due to the sensitivity of trend tests to the time period being tested, as well as differences in the streamflow timing metrics used among the studies. Mean February–May air temperature was significantly correlated with WSCVD at 100 percent of the study gages (field significant, p{\textless}0.0001), demonstrating the sensitivity of WSCVD to air temperature across snowmelt dominated basins in the U.S. WSCVD in high elevation basins in the West, however, was related to both air temperature and precipitation yielding earlier snowmelt-related streamflow timing under warmer and drier conditions.},
author = {Dudley, R.W. and Hodgkins, G.A. and McHale, M.R. and Kolian, M.J. and Renard, B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.051},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {apr},
pages = {208--221},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing in the conterminous United States}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169417300616?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169417300616},
volume = {547},
year = {2017}
}
@article{ISI:000363458100035,
abstract = {Future intensification of Amazon drought resulting from climate change may cause increased fire activity, tree mortality, and emissions of carbon to the atmosphere across large areas of Amazonia. To provide a basis for addressing these issues, we examine properties of recent and future meteorological droughts in the Amazon in 35 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that the CMIP5 climate models, as a group, simulate important properties of historical meteorological droughts in the Amazon. In addition, this group of models reproduces observed relationships between Amazon precipitation and regional sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. Assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for future drivers of climate change, the models project increases in the frequency and geographic extent of meteorological drought in the eastern Amazon, and the opposite in the West. For the region as a whole, the CMIP5 models suggest that the area affected by mild and severe meteorological drought will nearly double and triple, respectively, by 2100. Extremes of wetness are also projected to increase after 2040. Specifically, the frequency of periods of unusual wetness and the area affected by unusual wetness are projected to increase after 2040 in the Amazon as a whole, including in locations where annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease. Our analyses suggest that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of extreme events that have been shown to alter and degrade Amazonian forests.},
author = {Duffy, Philip B and Brando, Paulo and Asner, Gregory P and Field, Christopher B},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1421010112},
file = {::},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Amazon Basin,CMIP5,Climate,Drought,Precipitation extremes},
month = {oct},
number = {43},
pages = {13172--13177},
title = {{Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1421010112},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Dunne2013,
abstract = {A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity(1,2). Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress(3). One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications(4-6) is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis(7) and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections(8-10) with industrial(4) and military(5) guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity) here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90{\%} in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80{\%} in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40{\%} by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.},
author = {Dunne, John P. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and John, Jasmin G.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1827},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Climate sciences,change impacts},
month = {feb},
number = {6},
pages = {563--566},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1827},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Dunning2018,
abstract = {AbstractChanges in the seasonality of precipitation over Africa have high potential for detrimental socioeconomic impacts due to high societal dependence upon seasonal rainfall. Here, for the first time we conduct a continental-scale analysis of changes in wet season characteristics under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projection scenarios across an ensemble of CMIP5 models using an objective methodology to determine the onset and cessation of the wet season. A delay in the wet season over West Africa and the Sahel of over 5?10 days on average, and later onset of the wet season over southern Africa, is identified and associated with increasing strength of the Saharan heat low in late boreal summer and a northward shift in the position of the tropical rain belt over August?December. Over the Horn of Africa rainfall during the ?short rains? season is projected to increase by over 100 mm on average by the end of the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Average rainfall per rainy day is projected to increase, while the number of rainy days in the wet season declines in regions of stable or declining rainfall (western and southern Africa) and remains constant in central Africa, where rainfall is projected to increase. Adaptation strategies should account for shorter wet seasons, increasing rainfall intensity, and decreasing rainfall frequency, which will have implications for crop yields and surface water supplies.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1},
author = {Dunning, Caroline M and Black, Emily and Allan, Richard P},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {23},
pages = {9719--9738},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Later Wet Seasons with More Intense Rainfall over Africa under Future Climate Change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dupuy2020,
abstract = {Wildfire danger and burnt areas should increase over the century in southern Europe, owing to climate warming. Fire-prone area expansion to the north and to Mediterranean mountains is a concern, while climate-induced burnt area increase might be limited by fuel availability in the most arid areas. Further studies are needed to both assess and reduce uncertainties on future trends.},
author = {Dupuy, Jean-Luc and Fargeon, H{\'{e}}l{\`{e}}ne and Martin-StPaul, Nicolas and Pimont, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Ruffault, Julien and Guijarro, Mercedes and Hernando, Carmen and Madrigal, Javier and Fernandes, Paulo},
doi = {10.1007/s13595-020-00933-5},
issn = {1297-966X},
journal = {Annals of Forest Science},
number = {2},
pages = {35},
title = {{Climate change impact on future wildfire danger and activity in southern Europe: a review}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-020-00933-5},
volume = {77},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Durand2018,
abstract = {This study assesses the ability of 21 crop models to capture the impact of elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) on maize yield and water use as measured in a 2-year Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment experiment conducted at the Th{\"{u}}nen Institute in Braunschweig, Germany (Manderscheid et al., 2014). Data for ambient [CO2] and irrigated treatments were provided to the 21 models for calibrating plant traits, including weather, soil and management data as well as yield, grain number, above ground biomass, leaf area index, nitrogen concentration in biomass and grain, water use and soil water content. Models differed in their representation of carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration processes. The models reproduced the absence of yield response to elevated [CO2] under well-watered conditions, as well as the impact of water deficit at ambient [CO2], with 50{\%} of models within a range of +/−1 Mg ha−1 around the mean. The bias of the median of the 21 models was less than 1 Mg ha−1. However under water deficit in one of the two years, the models captured only 30{\%} of the exceptionally high [CO2] enhancement on yield observed. Furthermore the ensemble of models was unable to simulate the very low soil water content at anthesis and the increase of soil water and grain number brought about by the elevated [CO2] under dry conditions. Overall, we found models with explicit stomatal control on transpiration tended to perform better. Our results highlight the need for model improvement with respect to simulating transpirational water use and its impact on water status during the kernel-set phase.},
author = {Durand, Jean-Louis and Delusca, Kenel and Boote, Ken and Lizaso, Jon and Manderscheid, Remy and Weigel, Hans Johachim and Ruane, Alex C. and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Jones, Jim and Ahuja, Laj and Anapalli, Saseendran and Basso, Bruno and Baron, Christian and Bertuzzi, Patrick and Biernath, Christian and Deryng, Delphine and Ewert, Frank and Gaiser, Thomas and Gayler, Sebastian and Heinlein, Florian and Kersebaum, Kurt Christian and Kim, Soo-Hyung and M{\"{u}}ller, Christoph and Nendel, Claas and Olioso, Albert and Priesack, Eckart and Villegas, Julian Ramirez and Ripoche, Dominique and R{\"{o}}tter, Reimund P. and Seidel, Sabine I. and Srivastava, Amit and Tao, Fulu and Timlin, Dennis and Twine, Tracy and Wang, Enli and Webber, Heidi and Zhao, Zhigan},
doi = {10.1016/j.eja.2017.01.002},
issn = {11610301},
journal = {European Journal of Agronomy},
keywords = {Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration,Grain number,Multi-model ensemble,Stomatal conductance,Water use,Zea mays},
month = {oct},
pages = {67--75},
title = {{How accurately do maize crop models simulate the interactions of atmospheric CO2 concentration levels with limited water supply on water use and yield?}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1161030117300084},
volume = {100},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Durkalec2015,
abstract = {This paper contributes to the literature on Indigenous health, human dimensions of climate change, and place-based dimensions of health by examining the role of environment for Inuit health in the context of a changing climate. We investigated the relationship between one key element of the environment – sea ice – and diverse aspects of health in an Inuit community in northern Canada, drawing on population health and health geography approaches. We used a case study design and participatory and collaborative approach with the community of Nain in northern Labrador, Canada. Focus groups (n = 2), interviews (n = 22), and participant observation were conducted in 2010–11. We found that an appreciation of place was critical for understanding the full range of health influences of sea ice use for Inuit. Negative physical health impacts were reported on less frequently than positive health benefits of sea ice use, which were predominantly related to mental/emotional, spiritual, social, and cultural health. We found that sea ice means freedom for sea ice users, which we suggest influences individual and collective health through relationships between sea ice use, culture, knowledge, and autonomy. While sea ice users reported increases in negative physical health impacts such as injuries and stress related to changing environmental conditions, we suggest that less tangible climate change impacts related to losses of health benefits and disruptions to place meanings and place attachment may be even more significant. Our findings indicate that climate change is resulting in and compounding existing environmental dispossession for Inuit. They also demonstrate the necessity of considering place meanings, culture, and socio-historical context to assess the complexity of climate change impacts on Indigenous environmental health.},
author = {Durkalec, Agata and Furgal, Chris and Skinner, Mark W. and Sheldon, Tom},
doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.04.026},
issn = {02779536},
journal = {Social Science {\&} Medicine},
month = {jul},
pages = {17--26},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Climate change influences on environment as a determinant of Indigenous health: Relationships to place, sea ice, and health in an Inuit community}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953615002555 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277953615002555},
volume = {136-137},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Durocher2019,
author = {Durocher, Martin and Requena, Ana I. and Burn, Donald H. and Pellerin, Jennifer},
doi = {10.1002/hyp.13392},
issn = {0885-6087},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
month = {mar},
number = {7},
pages = {1143--1151},
title = {{Analysis of trends in annual streamflow to the Arctic Ocean}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hyp.13392},
volume = {33},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Follows2015,
abstract = {The responses of phytoplankton growth rates to ocean acidification were investigated in a meta-analysis. A marine ecosystem model calibrated with the results indicates that these different responses will result in changes in community structure.},
author = {Dutkiewicz, Stephanie and Morris, J. Jeffrey and Follows, Michael J. and Scott, Jeffery and Levitan, Orly and Dyhrman, Sonya T. and Berman-Frank, Ilana},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2722},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Ecology,Marine biology,change ecology},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1002--1006},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Impact of ocean acidification on the structure of future phytoplankton communities}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2722},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Duvat2017a,
abstract = {Atoll reef islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While accelerated sea-level rise is expected to destabilize reef islands, ocean warming and acidification are considered as major threats to coral reef growth, which is of primary importance for the persistence of islands and of food supply to islanders. Using multi-date aerial imagery, shoreline and island changes between 1969 and 2013 were assessed on Takapoto Atoll, Northern Tuamotu region, in French Polynesia. Results show that over the 44-year study period, 41{\%} of islands were stable in area while 33{\%} expanded and 26{\%} contracted. Island expansion was the dominant mode of change on the leeward side of the atoll. Tropical Cyclone Orama (category 3, 1983) contributed to shoreline and island change on the windward side of the atoll through the reworking of previous storm deposits and the injection of fresh sediments in the island system (with up to 62{\%} of an island's land area being covered with fresh sediments). Human activities contributed significantly to shoreline and island change throughout the atoll through infrastructure construction, the removal of the indigenous vegetation from a number of islets and sediment mining.},
author = {Duvat, Virginie K.E. and Pillet, Valentin},
doi = {10.1016/J.GEOMORPH.2017.01.002},
issn = {0169-555X},
journal = {Geomorphology},
month = {apr},
pages = {96--118},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Shoreline changes in reef islands of the Central Pacific: Takapoto Atoll, Northern Tuamotu, French Polynesia}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X16309977?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {282},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Duvat2017b,
abstract = {This paper increases by around 30{\%} the sample of atoll reef islands studied from a shoreline change perspective, and covers an under-studied geographical area, i.e. the French Tuamotu Archipelago. It brings new irrefutable evidences on the persistence of reef islands over the last decades, as 77{\%} of the 111 study islands exhibited areal stability while 15{\%} and 8{\%} showed expansion and contraction, respectively. This paper also addresses a key research gap by interpreting the major local drivers controlling recent shoreline and island change, i.e. tropical cyclones and seasonal swells, sediment supply by coral reefs and human activities. The 1983 tropical cyclones had contrasting impacts, depending on the shoreline indicator considered. While they generally caused a marked retreat of the stability line, the base of the beach advanced at some locations, as a result of either sediment reworking or fresh sediment inputs. The post-cyclone fair weather period was characterised by reversed trends indicating island morphological readjustment. Cyclonic waves contributed to island upwards growth, which reached up to 1m in places, through the transfer of sediments up onto the island surface. However, the steep outer slopes of atolls limited sediment transfers to the reef flat and island system. We found that 57{\%} of the study islands are disturbed by human activities, including ‘rural' and uninhabited islands. Twenty-six percent of these islands have lost the capacity to respond to ocean-climate related pressures, including the ‘capital' islands concentrating atolls' population, infrastructures and economic activities, which is preoccupying under climate change.},
author = {Duvat, Virginie K.E. and Salvat, Bernard and Salmon, Camille},
doi = {10.1016/J.GLOPLACHA.2017.09.016},
issn = {0921-8181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
month = {nov},
pages = {134--154},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Drivers of shoreline change in atoll reef islands of the Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116305598?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {158},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Duvillard2019,
abstract = {The past four decades have seen extensive development of the winter sport industry in the French Alps and several hundred ropeway transport systems have been installed in areas where mountain permafrost may be present. Due to current climatic change and the ensuing permafrost degradation, the vulnerability of these infrastructures to destabilization may increase. Therefore, there is a real potential for instabilities to develop on ropeway transport systems in the Alps, requiring a better understanding of these processes. This study investigates the relation between permafrost and infrastructure stability in the French Alps, seeking to understand the evolution of this phenomenon over the past decades. This was done by following a two-step analysis. At first, the infrastructure elements built on modeled permafrost-affected areas were inventoried at the scale of the French Alps in order to get an overview of the possible vulnerabilities. Then, our study presents a detailed historical inventory of damage to infrastructure over the past three decades in different geomorphologic contexts. Overall, in the French Alps, there are almost 1000 infrastructure elements located in permafrost areas among which 12 (i.e., 24 infrastructure elements) were identified to have been subject to repeated instances of disruption and deterioration and most of the damages recorded were in areas where permafrost degradation is fully expected (ice-rich terrain). Infrastructure recovery costs may be significantly high, making this issue a relevant consideration to be included in the design process.},
author = {Duvillard, Pierre Allain and Ravanel, Ludovic and Marcer, Marco and Schoeneich, Philippe},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-019-01465-z},
issn = {1436378X},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Damages,French Alps,Infrastructures,Mountain permafrost},
month = {jun},
number = {5},
pages = {1281--1293},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{Recent evolution of damage to infrastructure on permafrost in the French Alps}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01465-z},
volume = {19},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{Easterling2017,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Easterling, David R and Arnold, Jeff and Knutson, Thomas and Kunkel, Kenneth and LeGrande, Allegra and Ruby, L},
booktitle = {Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I},
doi = {10.7930/J0H993CC},
editor = {Wuebbles, D.J. and Fahey, D.W. and Hibbard, K.A. and Dokken, D.J. and Stewart, B.C. and Maycock, T.K.},
pages = {207--230},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska-Lincoln Precipitation change in the United States}},
url = {https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/ https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/usdeptcommercepub/586},
year = {2017}
}
@techreport{EuropeanCommission2015,
abstract = {The ambition of this roadmap is to offer a framework for discussion to the relevant actors and stakeholders. It paves the way to shared solutions and pathways facilitating the development of a market for climate services that provides benefits to society. This document offers an essential contribution to achieving the EU objectives of an Energy Union with a forward looking climate policy.},
address = {Brussels, Belgium},
author = {EC},
doi = {10.2777/702151},
editor = {Jacob, Daniela and Runge, Tania and Street, Roger and Parry, Martin and Scott, Jesse},
file = {::},
isbn = {978-92-79-44341-1},
pages = {56},
publisher = {European Commission (EC) Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD)},
series = {KI0614177ENN},
title = {{A European research and innovation Roadmap for Climate Services}},
url = {https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/73d73b26-4a3c-4c55-bd50-54fd22752a39},
year = {2015}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/qj.2591,
abstract = {This study has investigated serial (temporal) clustering of extratropical cyclones simulated by 17 climate models participating in CMIP5. Clustering was estimated by calculating the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of 30 December–February counts of Atlantic storm tracks passing near each grid point. Results from single historical simulations of 1975–2005 were compared to those from historical ERA40 reanalyses from 1958 to 2001 and single future model projections of 2069–2099 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Models were generally able to capture the broad features in reanalyses reported previously: underdispersion/regularity (i.e. variance less than mean) in the western core of the Atlantic storm track surrounded by overdispersion/clustering (i.e. variance greater than mean) to the north and south and over Western Europe. Regression of counts onto North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices revealed that much of the overdispersion in the historical reanalyses and model simulations can be accounted for by NAO variability. Future changes in dispersion were generally found to be small and not consistent across models. The overdispersion statistic, for any 30-year sample, is prone to large amounts of sampling uncertainty which obscures the climate change signal. For example, the projected increase in dispersion for storm counts near London in the CNRMCM5 model is 0.1 compared to a standard deviation of 0.25. Projected changes in the mean and variance of NAO are insufficient to create changes in overdispersion that are discernible above natural sampling variations.},
author = {Economou, T and Stephenson, D B and Pinto, J G and Shaffrey, L C and Zappa, G},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2591},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {CMIP5,Poisson process,extratropical cyclones,regional climate change,storm clustering},
month = {oct},
number = {693},
pages = {3076--3087},
title = {{Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.2591 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2591},
volume = {141},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{EuropeanEnvironmentAgency2018,
abstract = {This report provides the first systematic review of national climate change impact, vulnerability and risk (CCIV) assessments across Europe. It is based on information and reflections reported from and authorised by EEA member countries on assessments that are multi-sectoral and cover the whole country. The purpose of the report is to share experiences and knowledge and to highlight approaches and practical solutions that countries have used to produce and present their assessments.[...]},
address = {Copenhagen, Denmark},
author = {EEA},
doi = {10.2800/348489},
isbn = {978-92-9213-940-7},
issn = {1977-8449},
pages = {79},
publisher = {European Environment Agency (EEA)},
series = {EEA Report No 1/2018},
title = {{National climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in Europe, 2018}},
url = {https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/national-climate-change-vulnerability-2018},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Eisen2013,
abstract = {After more than a half century without recognized local dengue outbreaks in the continental United States, there were recent outbreaks of autochthonous dengue in the southern parts of Texas (2004-2005) and Florida (2009-2011). This dengue reemergence has provoked interest in the extent of the future threat posed by the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.), the primary vector of dengue and yellow fever viruses in urban settings, to human health in the continental United States. Ae. aegypti is an intriguing example of a vector species that not only occurs in the southernmost portions of the eastern United States today but also is incriminated as the likely primary vector in historical outbreaks of yellow fever as far north as New York, Philadelphia, and Boston, from the 1690s to the 1820s. For vector species with geographic ranges limited, in part, by low temperature and cool range margins occurring in the southern part of the continental United States, as is currently the case for Ae. aegypti, it is tempting to speculate that climate warming may result in a northward range expansion (similar to that seen for Ixodes tick vectors of Lyme borreliosis spirochetes in Scandinavia and southern Canada in recent decades). Although there is no doubt that climate conditions directly impact many aspects of the life history of Ae. aegypti, this mosquito also is closely linked to the human environment and directly influenced by the availability of water-holding containers for oviposition and larval development. Competition with other container-inhabiting mosquito species, particularly Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse), also may impact the presence and local abundance of Ae. aegypti. Field-based studies that focus solely on the impact of weather or climate factors on the presence and abundance of Ae. aegypti, including assessments of the potential impact of climate warming on the mosquito's future range and abundance, do not consider the potential confounding effects of socioeconomic factors or biological competitors for establishment and proliferation of Ae. aegypti. The results of such studies therefore should not be assumed to apply in areas with different socioeconomic conditions or composition of container-inhabiting mosquito species. For example, results from field-based studies at the high altitude cool margins for Ae. aegypti in Mexico's central highlands or the Andes in South America cannot be assumed to be directly applicable to geographic{\ldots}},
author = {Eisen, Lars and Moore, Chester G},
doi = {10.1603/ME12245},
issn = {0022-2585},
journal = {Journal of Medical Entomology},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {467--478},
pmid = {23802440},
title = {{Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti in the Continental United States: A Vector at the Cool Margin of Its Geographic Range}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23802440 https://academic.oup.com/jme/article-lookup/doi/10.1603/ME12245},
volume = {50},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Ekstrom2018,
abstract = {Metrics based on streamflow and/or climate variables are used in water management for monitoring and evaluating available resources. To reflect future change in the hydrological regime, metrics are estimated using climate change information from Global Climate Models or from stochastic time series representing future climates. Whilst often simple to calculate, many metrics implicitly represent complex physical process. We evaluate the scientific validity of metrics used in a climate change context, demonstrating their use to reflect aspects of timing, magnitude, extreme values, variability, duration, state, system services, and performance. We raise awareness about the following generic issues (a) formulation: metrics often assume stationarity of the input data, which is invalid under climate change; and do not always consider potential changes to seasonality and the relevance of the temporal window used for analysis; (b) climate change input data: how well are the physical processes relevant to the metric represented in the climate change input data; what is the impact of bias correction on relevant spatial and temporal scale dependencies and relevant intervariable dependencies; how realistic are the data in representing sequencing of events and natural variability in large‐scale ocean–atmosphere systems; and (c) decision‐making context: are rules and values that frame the decision‐making process likely to remain constant or change in a future world. If critical climate or hydrological processes are not well represented by the metric constituents, these indices can be misleading about plausible future change. However, knowledge of how to construct a robust metric can safeguard against misleading interpretations about future change.},
author = {Ekstr{\"{o}}m, Marie and Gutmann, Ethan D. and Wilby, Robert L. and Tye, Mari R. and Kirono, Dewi G.C.},
doi = {10.1002/wat2.1288},
issn = {2049-1948},
journal = {WIREs Water},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {e1288},
publisher = {Wiley},
title = {{Robustness of hydroclimate metrics for climate change impact research}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wat2.1288},
volume = {5},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ekstrom2015,
abstract = {Understanding the vulnerability of different US coastal communities to the likely harmful effects of ocean acidification on shellfisheries should inform the development of effective adaptation measures.},
author = {Ekstrom, Julia A. and Suatoni, Lisa and Cooley, Sarah R. and Pendleton, Linwood H. and Waldbusser, George G. and Cinner, Josh E. and Ritter, Jessica and Langdon, Chris and van Hooidonk, Ruben and Gledhill, Dwight and Wellman, Katharine and Beck, Michael W. and Brander, Luke M. and Rittschof, Dan and Doherty, Carolyn and Edwards, Peter E. T. and Portela, Rosimeiry},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2508},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Fisheries,Marine chemistry},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {207--214},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Vulnerability and adaptation of US shellfisheries to ocean acidification}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2508},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Elagib2014,
author = {Elagib, Nadir Ahmed},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.02.033},
issn = {1470160X},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
month = {aug},
pages = {114--125},
title = {{Development and application of a drought risk index for food crop yield in Eastern Sahel}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470160X14000910},
volume = {43},
year = {2014}
}
@article{ElisonTimm2015,
abstract = {Seasonal mean rainfall projections for Hawai‘i are given based on statistical downscaling of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global model results for two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The spatial information content of our statistical downscaling method is improved over previous efforts through the inclusion of spatially extensive, high‐quality monthly rainfall data set and the use of improved large‐scale climate predictor information. Predictor variables include moisture transport in the middle atmosphere (700 hPa), vertical temperature gradients, and geopotential height fields of the 1000 and 500 hPa layers. The results allow for the first time to derive a spatially interpolated map with future rainfall change estimates for the main Hawaiian Islands. The statistical downscaling was applied to project wet (November–April) and dry (May–October) season rainfall anomalies for the middle and late 21st century. Overall, the statistical downscaling gives more reliable results for the wet season than for the dry season. The wet‐season results indicate a pronounced dipole structure between windward facing mountain slopes and the leeward side of most of the islands. The climatically wet regions on the windward slopes of the mountain regions are expected to become wetter or remain stable in their seasonal precipitation amounts. On the climatically dry leeward sides of Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, future precipitation exhibits the strongest drying trends. The projected future rainfall anomaly pattern is associated with a circulation anomaly that resembles a shift in the position or strength of the subtropical high and the average location of extratropical troughs. These new results suggest that a negative trend dominates the area‐averaged changes in the statistical downscaling over the Hawaiian Islands. However, the islands are expected to experience a greater contrast between the wet and dry regions in the future.},
author = {{Elison Timm}, Oliver and Giambelluca, Thomas W. and Diaz, Henry F.},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD022059},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {10.1002/2014JD022059 and climate change,Hawaii,rainfall,statistical downscaling},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {92--112},
title = {{Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD022059},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Elith2010,
author = {Elith, Jane and Kearney, Michael and Phillips, Steven},
doi = {10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00036.x},
issn = {2041210X},
journal = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {330--342},
title = {{The art of modelling range-shifting species}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00036.x},
volume = {1},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Ellison2015,
author = {Ellison, Joanna C.},
doi = {10.1007/s11273-014-9397-8},
issn = {0923-4861},
journal = {Wetlands Ecology and Management},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {115--137},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Vulnerability assessment of mangroves to climate change and sea-level rise impacts}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11273-014-9397-8},
volume = {23},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Elsner2015,
author = {Elsner, James B. and Elsner, Svetoslava C. and Jagger, Thomas H.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2277-3},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {651--659},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{The increasing efficiency of tornado days in the United States}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2277-3},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Elsner2019,
author = {Elsner, James B. and Fricker, Tyler and Schroder, Zoe},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL080819},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {392--398},
title = {{Increasingly Powerful Tornadoes in the United States}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080819},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{hydrology6030066,
abstract = {Iran has different climatic and geographical zones (mountainous and desert areas), mostly arid and semi-arid, which are suffering from land degradation. Desertification as a land degradation process in Iran is created by natural and anthropogenic driving forces. Meteorological drought is a major natural driving force of desertification and occurs due to the extended periods of low precipitation. Scarcity of water, as well as the excessive use of water resources, mainly for agriculture, creates negative water balances and changes in plant cover, and accelerates desertification. Despite various political measures having been taken in the past, desertification is still a serious environmental problem in many regions in Iran. In this study, drought and aridity indices derived from long-term temperature and precipitation data were used in order to show long-term drought occurrence in different climatic zones in Iran. The results indicated the occurrence of severe and extremely severe meteorological droughts in recent decades in the areas studied. Moreover, the De Martonne Aridity Index (IDM) and precipitation variability index (PVI) showed an ongoing negative trend on the basis of long-term data and the conducted regression analysis. Rapid population growth, soil salinization, and poor water resource management are also considered as the main anthropogenic drivers. The percentage of the rural population in Iran is decreasing and the urban area is growing fast. Since the 1970s, the usage of groundwater in Iran has increased around fourfold and the average annual decrease in the groundwater table has been around 0.51 m. The results of the study provide a better ex-post and ex-ante understanding of the occurrence of droughts as key driving forces of the desertification in Iran. Additionally, they can enable policymakers to prepare proper regional-based strategic planning in the future. Desertification cannot be stopped or managed completely, but could be mitigated by the adoption of some proposed sustainable land management strategies.},
author = {Emadodin, Iraj and Reinsch, Thorsten and Taube, Friedhelm},
doi = {10.3390/hydrology6030066},
file = {::},
issn = {2306-5338},
journal = {Hydrology},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {66},
title = {{Drought and Desertification in Iran}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/6/3/66},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Emberson2018,
abstract = {We review current knowledge of the processes by which ozone will cause injury and damage to crop plants. We do this both through an understanding of the limitations to ozone uptake (i.e. ozone being transferred from some height in the atmosphere to the leaf boundary layer and subsequent uptake via the stomata) as well as through the internal plant processes that will result in the absorbed ozone dose causing damage and/or injury. We consider these processes across a range of scales by which ozone impacts plants, from cellular metabolism influencing leaf level physiology up to whole canopy and root system processes and feedbacks. We explore how these impacts affect leaf level photosynthesis and senescence (and associated carbon assimilation) as well as whole canopy resource acquisition (e.g. water and nutrients) and ultimately crop growth and yield. We consider these processes from the viewpoint of developing crop growth models capable of incorporating key ozone impact processes within modelling structures that assess crop growth under a variety of different abiotic stresses. These models would provide a dynamic assessment of the impact of ozone within the context of other key variables considered important in determining crop growth and yield. We consider the ability to achieve such modelling through an assessment of the different types of crop model currently available (e.g. empirical, radiation use efficiency, and photosynthesis based crop growth models). Finally, we show how international activities such as the AgMIP (Agricultural Modelling and Improvement Intercomparison Project) could see crop growth modellers collaborate to assess the capabilities of different crop models to simulate the effects of ozone and other stresses. The development of robust crop growth models capable of including ozone effects would substantially improve future national, regional and global risk assessments that aim to assess the role that ozone might play under future climatic conditions in limiting food supply.},
author = {Emberson, Lisa D. and Pleijel, H{\aa}kan and Ainsworth, Elizabeth A. and van den Berg, Maurits and Ren, Wei and Osborne, Stephanie and Mills, Gina and Pandey, Divya and Dentener, Frank and B{\"{u}}ker, Patrick and Ewert, Frank and Koeble, Renate and {Van Dingenen}, Rita},
doi = {10.1016/J.EJA.2018.06.002},
issn = {1161-0301},
journal = {European Journal of Agronomy},
pages = {19--34},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Ozone effects on crops and consideration in crop models}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030118301606},
volume = {100},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Engelbrecht2015a,
abstract = {An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African climate change and climate change adaptation in Africa.},
author = {Engelbrecht, Francois and Adegoke, Jimmy and Bopape, Mary Jane and Naidoo, Mogesh and Garland, Rebecca and Thatcher, Marcus and McGregor, John and Katzfey, Jack and Werner, Micha and Ichoku, Charles and Gatebe, Charles},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {African temperatures,actionable messages for adaptation,climate change,drought index,heat-waves,high fire-danger days,regional climate model projections},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {085004},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004/meta},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{England2014,
abstract = {Despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth's global average surface air temperature has remained more or less steady since 2001. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to account for this slowdown in surface warming. A key component of the global hiatus that has been identified is cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperature, but it is unclear how the ocean has remained relatively cool there in spite of ongoing increases in radiative forcing. Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades - unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models - is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. The extra uptake has come about through increased subduction in the Pacific shallow overturning cells, enhancing heat convergence in the equatorial thermocline. At the same time, the accelerated trade winds have increased equatorial upwelling in the central and eastern Pacific, lowering sea surface temperature there, which drives further cooling in other regions. The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1-0.2C, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001. This hiatus could persist for much of the present decade if the trade wind trends continue, however rapid warming is expected to resume once the anomalous wind trends abate. {\textcopyright} 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited.},
author = {England, Matthew H. and Mcgregor, Shayne and Spence, Paul and Meehl, Gerald A. and Timmermann, Axel and Cai, Wenju and Gupta, Alex Sen and Mcphaden, Michael J. and Purich, Ariaan and Santoso, Agus},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2106},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {3},
pages = {222--227},
title = {{Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus}},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Engram2018,
abstract = {Late-winter lake ice regimes are controlled by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness (MIT). When MIT exceeds maximum water depth, lakes freeze to the bottom with bedfast ice (BI) and when MIT is less than maximum water depth lakes have floating ice (FI). Both airborne radar and space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery (Ku-, X-, C-, and L-band) have been used previously to determine whether lakes have a BI or FI regime in a given year, across a number of years, or across large regions. In this study, we use a combination of ERS-1/2, RADARSAT-2, Envisat, and Sentinel-1 SAR imagery for seven lake-rich regions in Arctic Alaska to analyze lake ice regime extents and dynamics over a 25-year period (1992–2016). Our interactive threshold classification method determines a unique statistic-based intensity threshold for each SAR scene, allowing for the comparison of classification results from C-band SAR data acquired with different polarizations and incidence angles. Additionally, our novel method accommodates declining signal strength in aging extended-mission satellite SAR instruments. Comparison of SAR ice regime classifications with extensive field measurements from six years yielded a 93{\%} accuracy. Significant declines in BI regimes were only observed in the Fish Creek area with 3{\%} of lakes exhibiting transitional ice regimes—lakes that switch from BI to FI during this 25-year period. This analysis suggests that the potential conversion from BI to FI regimes is primarily a function of lake depth distributions in addition to regional differences in climate variability. Remote sensing of lake ice regimes with C-band SAR is a useful tool to monitor the associated thermal impacts on permafrost, since lake ice regimes can be used as a proxy for of sub-lake permafrost thaw, considered by the Global Climate Observing System as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Continued winter warming and variable snow conditions in the Arctic are expected and our long-term analysis provides a valuable baseline for predicting where potential future lake ice regimes shifts will be most pronounced.},
author = {Engram, Melanie and Arp, Christopher D. and Jones, Benjamin M. and Ajadi, Olaniyi A. and Meyer, Franz J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2018.02.022},
issn = {00344257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {Arctic lakes,Ice regime,Lake ice,Overwinter fish habitat,Permafrost thaw,Synthetic aperture radar,Thermokarst lakes,Winter water supply},
month = {may},
pages = {660--676},
publisher = {Elsevier Inc.},
title = {{Analyzing floating and bedfast lake ice regimes across Arctic Alaska using 25 years of space-borne SAR imagery}},
volume = {209},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Erban_2014,
abstract = {Groundwater exploitation is a major cause of land subsidence, which in coastal areas poses a flood inundation hazard that is compounded by the threat of sea-level rise (SLR). In the lower Mekong Delta, most of which lies {\textless}2 m above sea level, over-exploitation is inducing widespread hydraulic head (i.e., groundwater level) declines. The average rate of head decline is ∼0.3 m yr−1, based on time-series data from 79 nested monitoring wells at 18 locations. The consequent compaction of sedimentary layers at these locations is calculated to be causing land subsidence at an average rate of 1.6 cm yr−1. We further measure recent subsidence rates (annual average, 2006–10) throughout the Delta, by analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), using 78 ALOS PALSAR interferograms. InSAR-based subsidence rates are 1) consistent with compaction-based rates calculated at monitoring wells, and 2) ∼1–4 cm yr−1 over large (1000s of km2) regions. Ours are the first mapped estimates of Delta-wide land subsidence due to groundwater pumping. If pumping continues at present rates, ∼0.88 m (0.35–1.4 m) of land subsidence is expected by 2050. Anticipated SLR of ∼0.10 m (0.07–0.14 m) by 2050 will compound flood inundation potential. Our results suggest that by mid-century portions of the Mekong Delta will likely experience ∼1 m (0.42–1.54 m) of additional inundation hazard.},
author = {Erban, Laura E and Gorelick, Steven M and Zebker, Howard A},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084010},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {8},
pages = {84010},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Groundwater extraction, land subsidence, and sea-level rise in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2F9{\%}2F8{\%}2F084010},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Erlat2016,
author = {Erlat, E and T{\"{u}}rkeş, M},
doi = {10.3354/cr01397},
issn = {0936-577X},
journal = {Climate Research},
keywords = {AO,Climate variability,Frost event changes,Frost event climatology,NAO,Turkey},
month = {jul},
number = {2},
pages = {155--176},
title = {{Dates of frost onset, frost end and the frost-free season in Turkey: trends, variability and links to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indices, 1950–2013}},
url = {http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v69/n2/p155-176/},
volume = {69},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Espinet2016,
author = {Espinet, Xavier and Schweikert, Amy and van den Heever, Nicola and Chinowsky, Paul},
doi = {10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.06.003},
issn = {0967070X},
journal = {Transport Policy},
month = {aug},
pages = {78--86},
title = {{Planning resilient roads for the future environment and climate change: Quantifying the vulnerability of the primary transport infrastructure system in Mexico}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0967070X1630316X},
volume = {50},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Espinoza2020b,
abstract = {The Andes is the longest cordillera in the world and extends from northern South America to the southern extreme of the continent (from 11°N to 53°S). The Andes runs through seven countries and is characterized by a wide variety of ecosystems strongly related to the contrasting climate over its eastern and western sides, as well as along its latitudinal extension. This region faces very high potential impacts of climate change, which could affect food and water security for about 90 million people. In addition, climate change represents an important threat on biodiversity, particularly in the tropical Andes, which is the most biodiverse region on Earth. From a scientific and societal view, the Andes exhibits specific challenges because of its unique landscape and the fragile equilibrium between the growing population and its environment. In this manuscript, we provide an updated review of the most relevant scientific literature regarding the hydroclimate of the Andes with an integrated view of the entire Andes range. This review paper is presented in two parts. Part I is dedicated to summarize the scientific knowledge about the main climatic features of the Andes, with emphasis on mean large-scale atmospheric circulation, the Andes-Amazon hydroclimate interconnections and the most distinctive diurnal and annual cycles of precipitation. Part II, which is also included in the research topic “Connecting Mountain Hydroclimate Through the American Cordilleras,” focuses on the hydroclimate variability of the Andes at the sub-continental scale, including the effects of El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation.},
author = {Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} and Poveda, Germ{\'{a}}n and Arias, Paola A. and Molina-Carpio, Jorge and Masiokas, Mariano and Viale, Maximiliano and Scaff, Lucia},
doi = {10.3389/feart.2020.00064},
issn = {2296-6463},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
month = {mar},
pages = {64},
title = {{Hydroclimate of the Andes Part I: Main Climatic Features}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2020.00064/full},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Espinoza2013a,
abstract = {In this work, the authors analyze the origin of the extreme floods in the Peruvian Amazonas River during the 1970–2012 period, focusing on the recent April 2012 flooding (55 400 m3 s−1). Several hydrological variables, such as rainfall, terrestrial water storage, and discharge, point out that the unprecedented 2012 flood is mainly related to an early and abundant wet season over the north of the basin. Thus, the peak of the Mara{\~{n}}{\'{o}}n River, the northern contributor of the Amazonas, occurred sooner than usual (in April instead of May), coinciding with the peak of the Ucayali River, the southern contributor. This concomitance caused a dramatic flood downstream in the Peruvian Amazonas. These results are compared to the amplitude and timing of the three most severe extreme floods (1970–2011). The analysis of the climatic features related to the most important floods (1986, 1993, 1999, and 2012) suggests that they are characterized by a La Ni{\~{n}}a event, which originates a geopotential height wave train near the ground, with positive anomalies over the subtropical South and North Pacific and Atlantic and over southeastern South America. These patterns contribute to 1) the origin of an abundant humidity transport flux from the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea toward the northwestern Amazon and 2) the maintenance of the monsoon flux over this region. They both favor a strong convergence of humidity in the northern Amazonas basin. Finally, the authors suggest that the intensity of floods is more likely related to an early La Ni{\~{n}}a event (as observed during the 2011/12 season), early rainfall, and simultaneous peaks of both tributaries of the Amazonas River.},
author = {Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Ronchail, Josyane and Frappart, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Lavado, Waldo and Santini, William and Guyot, Jean Loup},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-12-0100.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {1000--1008},
title = {{The Major Floods in the Amazonas River and Tributaries (Western Amazon Basin) during the 1970–2012 Period: A Focus on the 2012 Flood}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0100.1},
volume = {14},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Evan2016,
author = {Evan, Amato T and Flamant, Cyrille and Gaetani, Marco and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise},
doi = {10.1038/nature17149},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {mar},
number = {7595},
pages = {493--495},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.},
title = {{The past, present and future of African dust}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17149 http://10.0.4.14/nature17149 http://www.nature.com/articles/nature17149},
volume = {531},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Eyring2016,
abstract = {By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever- expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to re- vise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide com- munity consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP his- torical simulations (1850–near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of mod- els across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will fa- cilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characteriza- tion of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP- Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the sci- entific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participat- ing in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by in- dividual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of theWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: – How does the Earth system respond to forcing? – What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? – How can we assess future climate changes given inter- nal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and ra- tionale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.},
author = {Eyring, Veronika and Bony, Sandrine and Meehl, Gerald A. and Senior, Catherine A. and Stevens, Bjorn and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Taylor, Karl E.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016},
isbn = {1991-9603},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {1937--1958},
title = {{Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/1937/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{EyshiRezaei2015,
abstract = {Increased climate variability and higher mean temperatures are expected across many world regions, both of which will contribute to more frequent extreme high temperatures events. Empirical evidence increasingly shows that short episodes of high temperature experienced around flowering can have large negative impacts on cereal grain yields, a phenomenon increasingly referred to as heat stress. Crop models are currently the best tools available to investigate how crops will grow under future climatic conditions, though the need to include heat stress effects has been recognized only relatively recently. We reviewed literature on both how key crop physiological processes and the observed yields under production conditions are impacted by high temperatures occurring particularly in the flowering and grain filling phases for wheat, maize and rice. This state of the art in crop response to heat stress was then contrasted with generic approaches to simulate the impacts of high temperatures in crop growth models. We found that the observed impacts of heat stress on crop yield are the end result of the integration of many processes, not all of which will be affected by a "high temperature" regime. This complexity confirms an important role for crop models in systematizing the effects of high temperatures on many processes under a range of environments and realizations of crop phenology. Four generic approaches to simulate high temperature impacts on yield were identified: (1) empirical reduction of final yield, (2) empirical reduction in daily increment in harvest index, (3) empirical reduction in grain number, and (4) semi-deterministic models of sink and source limitation. Consideration of canopy temperature is suggested as a promising approach to concurrently account for heat and drought stress, which are likely to occur simultaneously. Improving crop models' response to high temperature impacts on cereal yields will require experimental data representative of field production and should be designed to connect what is already known about physiological responses and observed yield impacts.},
author = {{Eyshi Rezaei}, Ehsan and Webber, Heidi and Gaiser, Thomas and Naab, Jesse and Ewert, Frank},
doi = {10.1016/j.eja.2014.10.003},
isbn = {1161-0301},
issn = {11610301},
journal = {European Journal of Agronomy},
keywords = {Cereal yield,Climate change impact,Crop modelling,Heat stress,High temperature},
month = {mar},
pages = {98--113},
title = {{Heat stress in cereals: Mechanisms and modelling}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1161030114001221 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1161030114001221},
volume = {64},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Fabrega2013,
abstract = {This work analyzes hydroclimate projections in Panama toward the end of the 21st century by employing the MRI-AGCM3.1 model. Understanding the impact of climate change on water resources is fundamental for a number of economic activities in Panama (i.e. Panama Canal operation, hydropower generation, and agriculture). Therefore, it is important to assess hydroclimatic impacts in specific basins using reliable Atmospheric Global Circulation Models (AGCMs) validated against actual field data. A 20-km mesh experiment was developed by using time-sliced analysis for current (1979-2002) and future (2075-2099) periods. Uncertainty in climate projections were addressed by completing 60-km mesh AGCM ensemble experiments at three additional lower boundary conditions. Four regions in Panama were selected for detailed analysis: from east to west, Bocas del Toro, Veraguas, Panama Canal and Darien. Projections show significant precipitation increases from May and July to December for all regions except Bocas del Toro. In this region, a decrease in precipitation is expected between April and August. Total runoff for all regions followed the changes in precipitation as expected. Due to net radiation increases, projected evaporation did not appear to be affected by precipitation changes.},
author = {F{\'{a}}brega, Jos{\'{e}} and Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki and Pinz{\'{o}}n, Reinhardt and Nakayama, Keisuke and Arakawa, Osamu and Group, SOUSEI Theme-C Modeling},
doi = {10.3178/hrl.7.23},
issn = {1882-3416},
journal = {Hydrological Research Letters},
number = {2},
pages = {23--29},
title = {{Hydroclimate projections for Panama in the late 21st Century}},
url = {http://jlc.jst.go.jp/DN/JST.JSTAGE/hrl/7.23?lang=en{\&}from=CrossRef{\&}type=abstract},
volume = {7},
year = {2013}
}
@inproceedings{Faggian2019,
author = {Faggian, Paola and Decimi, Goffredo},
booktitle = {2019 AEIT International Annual Conference (AEIT)},
doi = {10.23919/AEIT.2019.8893297},
isbn = {978-8-8872-3745-0},
month = {sep},
pages = {1--5},
publisher = {IEEE},
title = {{An updated investigation about climate-change hazards that might impact electric infrastructures}},
url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8893297/},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Fallah-Ghalhari2019,
author = {Fallah-Ghalhari, Gholamabbas and Shakeri, Fahimeh and Dadashi-Roudbari, Abbasali},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-019-02906-9},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {nov},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1539--1562},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Impacts of climate changes on the maximum and minimum temperature in Iran}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-019-02906-9},
volume = {138},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Falloon2018,
abstract = {Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) have significant potential to support shorter-term agricultural decisions and longer-term climate adaptation plans, but uptake in Europe has to date been low. Under the European Union funded project, European Provision Of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales (EUPORIAS) we have developed the Land Management Tool (LMTool), a prototype seasonal climate service for land managers, working closely in collaboration with two stakeholder organizations, Clinton Devon Estates (CDE) and the National Farmers Union (NFU). LMTool was one of several prototype climate services selected for development within EUPORIAS, including those for the UK transport network, food security in Ethiopia, renewable energy production, hydroelectric energy production in Sweden, and river management in two French basins. The LMTool provides SCFs (1–3 months ahead) to farmers in the Southwest UK, alongside 14-day site specific weather forecasts during the winter months when the skill of seasonal forecasts is greatest. We describe the processes through which the LMTool was co-designed and developed with the farmers, its technical development and key features; critically examine the lessons learned and their implications for providing future climate services for land managers; and finally assess the feasibility of delivering an operational winter seasonal climate service for UK land managers. A number of key learning points from developing the prototype may benefit future work in climate services for the land management and agriculture sector; many of these points are also valid for climate services in other sectors. Prototype development strongly benefitted from; working with intermediaries to identify representative, engaged land managers; an iterative and flexible process of co-design with the farmer group; and from an interdisciplinary project team. Further work is needed to develop a better understanding of the role of forecast skill in land management decision making, the potential benefits of downscaling and how seasonal forecasts can help support land managers decision-making processes. The prototype would require considerable work to implement a robust operational forecast system, and a longer period to demonstrate the value of the services provided. Finally, the potential for such services to be applied more widely in Europe is not well understood and would require further stakeholder engagement and forecast development.},
author = {Falloon, Pete and Soares, Marta Bruno and Manzanas, Rodrigo and San-Martin, Daniel and Liggins, Felicity and Taylor, Inika and Kahana, Ron and Wilding, John and Jones, Ceris and Comer, Ruth and de Vreede, Ernst and {Som de Cerff}, Wim and Buontempo, Carlo and Brookshaw, Anca and Stanley, Simon and Middleham, Ross and Pittams, Daisy and Lawrence, Ellen and Bate, Emily and Peter, Hannah and Uzell, Katherine and Richards, Matt},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2017.08.002},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {jan},
pages = {86--100},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{The land management tool: Developing a climate service in Southwest UK}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880716300802},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Fan2020,
author = {Fan, Xiao-Ting and Li, Ying and Lyu, Ai-Min and Liu, Long-Sheng},
doi = {10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.038},
issn = {1006-8775},
journal = {Journal of Tropical Meteorology},
number = {3},
pages = {441--452},
title = {{Statistical and Comparative Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (1977–2018)}},
url = {http://jtm.itmm.org.cn/en/article/doi/10.16555/j.1006-8775.2020.038},
volume = {26},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Fann2015,
abstract = {In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and los...},
author = {Fann, Neal and Nolte, Christopher G. and Dolwick, Patrick and Spero, Tanya L. and Brown, Amanda Curry and Phillips, Sharon and Anenberg, Susan},
doi = {10.1080/10962247.2014.996270},
issn = {1096-2247},
journal = {Journal of the Air {\&} Waste Management Association},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {570--580},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10962247.2014.996270},
volume = {65},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{Fann2016,
abstract = {Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) Climate and Health Assessment has been developed to enhance understanding and inform decisions about this growing threat. This scientific assessment, called for under the President's Climate Action Plan, is a major report of the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process. The report responds to the 1990 Congressional mandate to assist the Nation in understanding, assessing, predicting, and responding to human-induced and natural processes of global change. The agencies of the USGCRP identified human health impacts as a high-priority topic for scientific assessment. The purpose of this assessment is to provide a comprehensive, evidence-based, and, where possible, quantitative estimation of observed and projected climate change related health impacts in the United States. The USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment has been developed to inform public health officials, urban and disaster response planners, decision makers, and other stakeholders within and outside of government who are interested in better understanding the risks climate change presents to human health.},
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Fann, N. and Brennan, T. and Dolwick, P. and Gamble, J.L. and Ilacqua, V. and Kolb, L. and Nolte, C.G and Spero, T.L. and Ziska, L},
booktitle = {The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment},
chapter = {3},
doi = {10.7930/J0GQ6VP6},
editor = {Crimmins, A. and Balbus, J. and Gamble, J.L. and Beard, C.B. and Bell, J.E. and Dodgen, D. and Eisen, R.J. and Fann, N. and Hawkins, M.D. and Herring, S.C. and Jantarasami, L. and Mills, D.M. and Saha, S. and Sarofim, M.C. and Trtanj, J. and Zisk, L.},
pages = {69--98},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Ch. 3: Air Quality Impacts}},
url = {https://health2016.globalchange.gov/downloads{\#}air-quality-impacts},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Fant2016,
abstract = {The mitigation of potential climate change while sustaining energy resources requires global attention and cooperation. Among the numerous strategies to reduce Green House Gas (GHG) emissions is to decommission carbon intensive electricity production while increase the deployment of renewable energy technologies - such as wind and solar power generation. Yet the generation capacity, availability, and intermittency of these renewable energy sources are strongly climate dependent - and may also shift due to unavoidable human-induced change. In this study, we present a method, based on previous studies, that estimates the risk of climate-change on wind and solar resource potential. The assessment combines the risk-based climate projections from the Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM), which considers emissions and global climate sensitivity uncertainty, with more regionally detailed climate information from 8 GCMs available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP-3). Southern Africa, specifically those in the Southern African Development Countries (SADC), is used as a case study. We find a median change close to zero by 2050 in the long-term mean of both wind speed and Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), both used as indicators of changes in electricity production potential. Although the extreme possibilities range from about -15{\%} to +15{\%} change, these are associated with low probability. The most prominent effect of a modest climate mitigation policy is seen in the doubled likelihood of the mode of the distribution of wind power change. This increased likelihood is made at the expense of decreased likelihood in the large changes of the distribution, but these trade-offs with the more extreme likelihoods are not symmetric with respect to the modal change.},
author = {Fant, Charles and {Adam Schlosser}, C. and Strzepek, Kenneth},
doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.03.042},
issn = {03062619},
journal = {Applied Energy},
keywords = {Climate change,Renewable energy,Solar energy,Southern Africa,Wind energy},
month = {jan},
pages = {556--564},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{The impact of climate change on wind and solar resources in southern Africa}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0306261915003268},
volume = {161},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Fargeon2020,
abstract = {Global warming is expected to increase droughts and heatwaves, and consequently fire danger in southern Europe in the forthcoming decades. However, an assessment of the uncertainties associated with this general trend at regional scales, relevant to decision-making, is still missing. This study aims at assessing potential climate change impacts on fire danger over France through the projection of the widely used Fire Weather Index (FWI) and at quantifying the different sources of climate-driven uncertainty associated with these projections. We used daily climate experiments covering the 1995–2098 period under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) provided by the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Our results show an overall increase in FWI throughout the century, with the largest absolute increases in the Mediterranean area. Model uncertainty was very high in western France, previously identified as a potential fire-prone region under future climate. In contrast, large increases in FWI in the Mediterranean area showed low uncertainty across models. Besides, analyzing the natural variability of FWI revealed that extreme years under present-day climate could become much more frequent by the end of the century. The FWI is projected to emerge from the background of natural variability by mid-twenty-first century with a summer elevated fire danger three times more likely when summer temperature anomaly exceeds + 2 °C.},
author = {Fargeon, H and Pimont, F and Martin-StPaul, N and {De Caceres}, M and Ruffault, J and Barbero, R and Dupuy, J-L.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02629-w},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {3},
pages = {479--493},
title = {{Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02629-w},
volume = {160},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Farquharson2019,
abstract = {Climate warming in regions of ice-rich permafrost can result in widespread thermokarst development, which reconfigures the landscape and damages infrastructure. We present multisite time series observations which couple ground temperature measurements with thermokarst development in a region of very cold permafrost. In the Canadian High Arctic between 2003 and 2016, a series of anomalously warm summers caused mean thawing indices to be 150–240{\%} above the 1979–2000 normal resulting in up to 90 cm of subsidence over the 12-year observation period. Our data illustrate that despite low mean annual ground temperatures, very cold permafrost ({\textless}−10 °C) with massive ground ice close to the surface is highly vulnerable to rapid permafrost degradation and thermokarst development. We suggest that this is due to little thermal buffering from soil organic layers and near-surface vegetation, and the presence of near-surface ground ice. Observed maximum thaw depths at our sites are already exceeding those projected to occur by 2090 under representative concentration pathway version 4.5.},
author = {Farquharson, Louise M. and Romanovsky, Vladimir E. and Cable, William L. and Walker, Donald A. and Kokelj, Steven V. and Nicolsky, Dmitry},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL082187},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Arctic,ground temperature,monitoring,permafrost,thermokarst},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {6681--6689},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Climate Change Drives Widespread and Rapid Thermokarst Development in Very Cold Permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL082187},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Fatemi2018,
abstract = {Abstract: In recent years, global climate change has had significant biological, temporal, and spatial effects on many terrestrial habitats. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on the geographic distribution of Juniperus excelsa and prioritize its habitats for protection against these effects until 2070. The study was conducted using the MaxEnt species distribution model and two data series GFDL-CM3 and MRI-CGCM3 under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 of the 5th IPCC report. Our results revealed that elevation, minimum temperature of coldest month, precipitation of coldest quarter, annual mean temperature, and slope aspect, in that order, have the greatest effects on the species' distribution in the study area. Under optimistic scenario RCP2.6, both models predicted that the species' presence area will grow, but under RCP4.5, models predicted that by 2070, some parts of its habitat in western and central heights will be lost because of change in climate parameters like minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of coldest quarter. Under the latter scenario, the northeastern parts of the study area showed no changes in terms of climatic parameters and climatic niche. The results of both climate data series indicated that the Juniperus excelsa will slowly migrate to higher elevations to cope with the changing climate. Assessment of the results through field studies showed that outputs of GFDL-CM3 are closer to the reality.},
author = {Fatemi, S.S. and Rahimi, M. and Tarkesh, M. and Ravanbakhsh, H.},
doi = {10.3832/ifor2559-011},
issn = {19717458},
journal = {iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry},
keywords = {Climate Change,Climatic Niche,Irano,Juniperus excelsa,MaxEnt Model,Modelling,Turanian Forests},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {643--650},
publisher = {SISEF - Italian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology},
title = {{Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Juniperus excelsa M. Bieb. in the central and eastern Alborz Mountains, Iran}},
url = {http://iforest.sisef.org/contents/?id=ifor2559-011 http://iforest.sisef.org/?doi=ifor2559-011 https://iforest.sisef.org/?doi=ifor2559-011},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Fedotova2019,
abstract = {The aim of the present work is to obtain surface wind speed projections which could be used as guidelines for long-term planning of wind power construction in Russia. A classical multi-model ensemble approach is implemented by using CMIP5 simulation results. The reliability of the ensemble estimation is assessed by a comparison of three different ensemble versions, which are validated against reanalysis data for the whole 20th century and have been found to give consistent results since 1950. Agreement between the results of all the assembling approaches has been found to be quite good for the mid-twenty-first century. All ensembles being considered agree that a considerable decrease in wind resources should be expected in the European part of Russia and in the south of Western Siberia towards 2050. Another robust output of the analysis is an increase in annual wind speed in the Southern Russian Far East. The wind change during the considered 40-year period is in the range from - 6 to +6{\%}, which means a -18 to +18{\%} change in potential wind generation. The main output of the present work is that climate change by no means can be seen to be an obstacle to the development of renewable power in Russia. However, the climate change associated alteration of wind regime should be necessarily taken into account when establishing long-term plans for wind farm construction in Russia.},
author = {Fedotova, E.V.},
doi = {10.1088/1755-1315/386/1/012042},
issn = {1755-1315},
journal = {IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science},
pages = {12042},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Wind projections for the territory of Russia considering the development of wind power}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/386/1/012042},
volume = {386},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Feeley2008,
abstract = {Water availability represents a growing concern for meeting future power generation needs. In the United States, projected population growth rates, energy consumption patterns, and demand from competing water use sectors will increase pressure on power generators to reduce water use. Water availability and use also exhibit strong regional variations, complicating the nature of public policy and technological response. The US Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is engaged in a research and development (R{\&}D) program to reduce freshwater withdrawal (total quantity of water utilized) and consumption (portion of withdrawal not returned to the source) from existing and future thermoelectric power generating facilities. The Innovations for Existing Plants (IEP) Program is currently developing technologies in 5 categories of water management projects to reduce water use while minimizing the impacts of plant operations on water quality. This paper outlines the freshwater withdrawal and consumption rates for various thermoelectric power generating types and then estimates the potential benefits of IEP program technologies at both the national and regional levels in the year 2030. NETL is working to protect and conserve water resources while leveraging domestic fossil fuel resources, such as coal, to increase national energy security.},
author = {Feeley, Thomas J. and Skone, Timothy J. and Stiegel, Gary J. and McNemar, Andrea and Nemeth, Michael and Schimmoller, Brian and Murphy, James T. and Manfredo, Lynn},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2007.08.007},
issn = {03605442},
journal = {Energy},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--11},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Water: A critical resource in the thermoelectric power industry}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544207001375 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544207001375},
volume = {33},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Hales2016,
abstract = {The continental shelf region off the west coast of North America is seasonally exposed to water with a low aragonite saturation state by coastal upwelling of CO2-rich waters. To date, the spatial and temporal distribution of anthropogenic CO2 (Canth) within the CO2-rich waters is largely unknown. Here we adapt the multiple linear regression approach to utilize the GO-SHIP Repeat Hydrography data from the northeast Pacific to establish an annually updated relationship between Canth and potential density. This relationship was then used with the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program West Coast Ocean Acidification (WCOA) cruise data sets from 2007, 2011, 2012, and 2013 to determine the spatial variations of Canth in the upwelled water. Our results show large spatial differences in Canth in surface waters along the coast, with the lowest values (37–55 $\mu$mol kg−1) in strong upwelling regions off southern Oregon and northern California and higher values (51–63 $\mu$mol kg−1) to the north and south of this region. Coastal dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations are also elevated due to a natural remineralized component (Cbio), which represents carbon accumulated through net respiration in the seawater that has not yet degassed to the atmosphere. Average surface Canth is almost twice the surface remineralized component. In contrast, Canth is only about one third and one fifth of the remineralized component at 50 m and 100 m depth, respectively. Uptake of Canth has caused the aragonite saturation horizon to shoal by approximately 30–50 m since the preindustrial period so that undersaturated waters are well within the regions of the continental shelf that affect the shell dissolution of living pteropods. Our data show that the most severe biological impacts occur in the nearshore waters, where corrosive waters are closest to the surface. Since the pre-industrial times, pteropod shell dissolution has, on average, increased approximately 19–26{\%} in both nearshore and offshore waters.},
author = {Feely, Richard A. and Alin, Simone R. and Carter, Brendan and Bednar{\v{s}}ek, Nina and Hales, Burke and Chan, Francis and Hill, Tessa M. and Gaylord, Brian and Sanford, Eric and Byrne, Robert H. and Sabine, Christopher L. and Greeley, Dana and Juranek, Lauren},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.043},
issn = {0272-7714},
journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science},
keywords = {california current large marine,ecosystem,ocean acidi fi cation},
month = {dec},
pages = {260--270},
publisher = {Academic Press},
title = {{Chemical and biological impacts of ocean acidification along the west coast of North America}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771416302980 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771416302980?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {183},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Fei2017,
abstract = {Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impactsare less understood.Weanalyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more tree species have experienced a westward shift (73{\%}) than a poleward shift (62{\%}) in their abundance, a trend that is stronger for saplings than adult trees. The observed shifts are primarily due to the changes of subpopulation abundances in the leading edges and are significantly associated with changes in moisture availability and successional processes. These spatial shifts are associated with species that have similar traits (drought tolerance, wood density, and seed weight) and evolutionary histories (most angiosperms shifted westward and most gymnosperms shifted poleward).Our results indicate that changes inmoisture availability have stronger near-term impacts on vegetation dynamics than changes in temperature. The divergent responses to climate change by trait-and phylogeneticspecific groups could lead to changes in composition of forest ecosystems, putting the resilience and sustainability of various forest ecosystems in question. 2017},
author = {Fei, Songlin and Desprez, Johanna M. and Potter, Kevin M. and Jo, Insu and Knott, Jonathan A. and Oswalt, Christopher M.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1603055},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {e1603055},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Divergence of species responses to climate change}},
url = {https://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1603055},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Feng2006,
author = {Feng, Jianmin and Wang, Tao and Xie, Changwei},
doi = {10.1007/s10661-005-9169-2},
issn = {0167-6369},
journal = {Environmental Monitoring and Assessment},
month = {nov},
number = {1-3},
pages = {125--143},
title = {{Eco-Environmental Degradation in the Source Region of the Yellow River, Northeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10661-005-9169-2},
volume = {122},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Feng2013,
author = {Feng, S. and Fu, Q.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-13-10081-2013},
isbn = {1680-7316},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {10081--10094},
title = {{Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/10081/2013/},
volume = {13},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Feng2017,
abstract = {Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), and 25 state-of-the-art climate models. These drought indices were computed using potential evapotranspiration estimated by the physically based Penman–Monteith method (PE{\_}pm) and the empirically based Thornthwaite method (PE{\_}th). The results showed that the short-term drought indices are similar to modeled surface soil moisture and show a small but consistent drying trend in the future. The long-term drought indices and the total column soil moisture, however, are consistent in projecting more intense future drought. When normalized, the drought indices with PE{\_}th all show unprecedented future drying, while the drought indices with PE{\_}pm show comparable dryness with the modeled soil moisture. Additionally, the drought indices with PE{\_}pm are closely related to soil moisture during both the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Overall, the drought indices with PE{\_}pm, as well as the modeled total column soil moisture, suggest a widespread and very significant drying in the Great Plains toward the end of the century. The results suggest that the sharp contrasts about future drought risk in the Great Plains discussed in previous studies are caused by 1) comparing the projected changes in short-term droughts with that of the long-term droughts and/or 2) computing the atmospheric evaporative demand using an empirically based method (e.g., PE{\_}th). The analysis here may be applied for drought projections in other regions across the globe.},
author = {Feng, Song and Trnka, Miroslav and Hayes, Michael and Zhang, Yongjun},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0590.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {265--278},
title = {{Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains?}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0590.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Feng2019,
author = {Feng, Taichen and Su, Tao and Zhi, Rong and Tu, Gang and Ji, Fei},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5992},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {may},
number = {6},
pages = {2919--2932},
title = {{Assessment of actual evapotranspiration variability over global land derived from seven reanalysis datasets}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.5992},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ferguson2018,
abstract = {Abstract Changes in the spatiotemporal dynamics of the global water cycle will constitute some of the greatest challenges to socioeconomic-environmental well-being in a warming world. Large multimodel, multiscenario intercomparisons such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment support our best estimates of projected climate change and associated uncertainty thereof. It is important to continually reevaluate how this information is synthesized and communicated and at what point it becomes actionable. In this study, we demonstrate a systematic and holistic framework for synthesizing multimodel ensemble projections of water availability at large river basin scale?the scale at which water resources are both managed and monitored. We identify statistically significant shifts in mean water availability at annual and monthly scales, its interannual variations, and its relative seasonality, as computed from CMIP5 historical (1976?2005) and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (2070?2099) scenario multimodel ensemble output. Water availability is addressed separately through the lens of meteorologists (precipitation), hydrologists (runoff), and agriculturalists (precipitation minus evapotranspiration). We illustrate limitations in CMIP5 model representativeness through comparisons of atmosphere-only model (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) output against observational best estimates. And we find that warming-induced shifts in water availability projected by CMIP5 carbon-cycling Earth system models are comparatively less substantial than those projected by traditional general circulation models. As we show, knowing the seasonality of both projected changes and of the biased model background climatology onto which they are imposed is paramount to ensuring proper interpretation and ascribing confidence.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2018WR022792},
author = {Ferguson, C R and Pan, M and Oki, Taikan},
doi = {10.1029/2018WR022792},
issn = {0043-1397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {basin-scale water budget,climate variability and change,future changes in water availability,precipitation,seasonality,water resources management},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {7791--7819},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The Effect of Global Warming on Future Water Availability: CMIP5 Synthesis}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022792},
volume = {54},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ferguson2012,
author = {Ferguson, Grant and Gleeson, Tom},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1413},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {342--345},
title = {{Vulnerability of coastal aquifers to groundwater use and climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1413},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/qj.2364,
abstract = {Abstract This review assesses storm studies over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe regarding the occurrence of potential long-term trends. Based on a systematic review of available articles, trends are classified according to different geographical regions, datasets, and time periods. Articles that used measurement and proxy data, reanalyses, regional and global climate model data on past and future trends are evaluated for changes in storm climate. The most important result is that trends in storm activity depend critically on the time period analysed. An increase in storm numbers is evident for the reanalyses period for the most recent decades, whereas most long-term studies show merely decadal variability for the last 100–150 years. Storm trends derived from reanalyses data and climate model data for the past are mostly limited to the last four to six decades. The majority of these studies find increasing storm activity north of about 55–60° N over the North Atlantic with a negative tendency southward. This increase from about the 1970s until the mid-1990s is also mirrored by long-term proxies and the North Atlantic Oscillation and constitutes a part of their decadal variability. Studies based on proxy and measurement data or model studies over the North Atlantic for the past which cover more than 100 years show large decadal variations and either no trend or a decrease in storm numbers. Future scenarios until about the year 2100 indicate mostly an increase in winter storm intensity over the North Atlantic and western Europe. However, future trends in total storm numbers are quite heterogeneous and depend on the model generation used.},
author = {Feser, F and Barcikowska, M and Krueger, O and Schenk, F and Weisse, R and Xia, L},
doi = {10.1002/qj.2364},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {NAO,North Atlantic,extratropical cyclones,storm trends,storms,wind},
month = {jan},
number = {687},
pages = {350--382},
title = {{Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe – A review}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.2364 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2364},
volume = {141},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Filizola2014,
author = {Filizola, Naziano and Latrubesse, Edgardo M. and Fraizy, P. and Souza, R. and Guimar{\~{a}}es, V. and Guyot, J.-L.},
doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.05.028},
issn = {0169555X},
journal = {Geomorphology},
month = {jun},
pages = {99--105},
title = {{Was the 2009 flood the most hazardous or the largest ever recorded in the Amazon?}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169555X13003176},
volume = {215},
year = {2014}
}
@article{FingerHiggens2019,
author = {{Finger Higgens}, R. A. and Chipman, J. W. and Lutz, D. A. and Culler, L. E. and Virginia, R. A. and Ogden, L. A.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JG004879},
issn = {2169-8953},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {870--883},
title = {{Changing Lake Dynamics Indicate a Drier Arctic in Western Greenland}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JG004879},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Fiore2015,
abstract = {Multiple linkages connect air quality and climate change. Many air pollutant sources also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). The two main contributors to non-attainment of U.S. ambient air quality standards, ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM), interact with radiation, forcing climate change. PM warms by absorbing sunlight (e.g., black carbon) or cools by scattering sunlight (e.g., sulfates) and interacts with clouds; these radiative and microphysical interactions can induce changes in precipitation and regional circulation patterns. Climate change is expected to degrade air quality in many polluted regions by changing air pollution meteorology (ventilation and dilution), precipitation and other removal processes, and by triggering some amplifying responses in atmospheric chemistry and in anthropogenic and natural sources. Together, these processes shape distributions and extreme episodes of O3 and PM. Global modeling indicates that as air pollution programs reduce SO2 to meet health and other air quality goals, near-term warming accelerates due to “unmasking” of warming induced by rising CO2. Air pollutant controls on CH4, a potent GHG and precursor to global O3 levels, and on sources with high black carbon (BC) to organic carbon (OC) ratios could offset near-term warming induced by SO2 emission reductions, while reducing global background O3 and regionally high levels of PM. Lowering peak warming requires decreasing atmospheric CO2, which for some source categories would also reduce co-emitted air pollutants or their precursors. Model projections for alternative climate and air quality scenarios indicate a wide range for U.S. surface O3 and fine PM, although regional projections may be confounded by interannual to decadal natural climate variability. Continued implementation of U.S. NOx emission controls guards against rising pollution levels triggered either by climate change or by global emission growth. Improved accuracy and trends in emission inventories are critical for accountability analyses of historical and projected air pollution and climate mitigation policies.},
author = {Fiore, Arlene M. and Naik, Vaishali and Leibensperger, Eric M.},
doi = {10.1080/10962247.2015.1040526},
issn = {21622906},
journal = {Journal of the Air {\&} Waste Management Association},
number = {6},
pages = {645--685},
pmid = {25976481},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis Inc.},
title = {{Air quality and climate connections}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=uawm20},
volume = {65},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Fischer2016,
abstract = {It has been predicted, by theory and models, that heavy precipitation will increase with climate change and this is now being seen in observations. Emergence of signals such as this will enable testing of predictions, which should increase confidence in them.},
author = {Fischer, E. M. and Knutti, R.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3110},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Attribution,Climate and Earth system modelling,Projection and prediction},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {986--991},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3110},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Fishman2016,
abstract = {Climate change is expected to lead to more uneven temporal distributions of precipitation, but the impacts on human systems are little studied. Most existing, statistically based agricultural climate change impact projections only account for changes in total precipitation, ignoring its intra-seasonal distribution, and conclude that in places that will become wetter, agriculture will benefit. Here, an analysis of daily rainfall and crop yield data from across India (1970-2003), where a fifth of global cereal supply is produced, shows that decreases in the number of rainy days have robust negative impacts that are large enough to overturn the benefits of increased total precipitation for the yields of most major crops. As an illustration, the net, mid 21st century projection for rice production shifts from +2{\%} to -11{\%} when changes in distribution are also accounted for, independently of additional negative impacts of rising temperatures.},
author = {Fishman, Ram},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024004},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {agriculture,climate change,rainfall variability},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {024004},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{More uneven distributions overturn benefits of higher precipitation for crop yields}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024004},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Fiss2019,
abstract = {Natural catastrophes are known to impact wildlife populations, however opportunities to directly measure the demographic effects associated with such events are rare. Given the projected increase in severe storms due to climate change, understanding how these weather events influence small wildlife populations will become increasingly important for conservation. During the spring 2017 nesting season, we observed a severe localized hailstorm that afforded us an opportunity to measure the immediate demographic effects on a small breeding aggregation of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera). The hailstorm produced approximately 2.5 cm diameter hail and apparently caused the failure of 89{\%} (8/9) of monitored Golden-winged Warbler nests in a patch of early-successional forest in north-central Pennsylvania. Seven of the 8 failed nests contained broken eggs and all nests at the site showed signs of nest cup damage. Two dead Golden-winged Warbler females were found within 0.5 m of their nests. We suspect that additional mortalities of female and male Golden-winged Warblers occurred because several thorough searches of the early-successional patch revealed little territorial or renesting behavior in the following weeks. We noted hail-caused vegetation damage across the site characterized by varying levels of defoliation and destruction to herbaceous vegetation, Rubus, and even saplings and canopy trees. Storm events such as the one described here are well known to cause mortality in grassland species; however, events that result in forest-dependent passerine mortality are notably less common. We consider here the potential long-term implications of extreme weather events on bird populations, particularly those of conservation concern.},
author = {Fiss, Cameron J. and McNeil, Darin J. and Rodr{\'{i}}guez, Fabiola and Rodewald, Amanda D. and Larkin, Jeffery L.},
doi = {10.1676/18-15},
issn = {1559-4491},
journal = {The Wilson Journal of Ornithology},
month = {apr},
number = {1},
pages = {165},
publisher = {Wilson Ornithological Society},
title = {{Hail-induced nest failure and adult mortality in a declining ground-nesting forest songbird}},
url = {https://bioone.org/journals/the-wilson-journal-of-ornithology/volume-131/issue-1/18-15/Hail-induced-nest-failure-and-adult-mortality-in-a-declining/10.1676/18-15.full},
volume = {131},
year = {2019}
}
@article{FITCHETT2018,
abstract = {The IBTrACS global best track data set endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization provides a valuable global record of tropical cyclone genesis, track and intensity, and spans 1842 to the present. The record is significantly more robust from the late 1970s onwards, as it is supported by satellite imagery. These records indicate that the first tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean to intensify to CAT5 status did so in 1994. This date is significantly later than the first CAT5 storms recorded in the IBTrACS database for the Atlantic Ocean (1924) and the North Pacific (1951) recorded from ship records, and half a decade later than those of the North Indian Ocean (1989) and South Pacific (1988), captured from satellite imagery. Following this late emergence, in the period 1990–2000, eight CAT5 tropical cyclones were recorded for the South Indian Ocean. A further four have been recorded for the period 2010–2015. This recent emergence of tropical cyclones attaining category five intensity in the South Indian Ocean is of significance for the forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall and the anticipation of storm damage for the developing economies that characterise the region. Although an increase in tropical cyclone intensity is frequently projected under global climate change scenarios, the dynamics for the South Indian Ocean have remained poorly understood. Notable are early results indicating an increased frequency and poleward migration of these CAT5 storms, concurrent with a poleward migration in the position of the 26.5 °C, 28 °C and 29 °C sea surface temperature isotherms in the South Indian Ocean. Significance: Category 5 tropical cyclones, the strongest category of storms, have only recently emerged in the South Indian Ocean. Since 1989, their frequency of occurrence has increased. This increase poses a heightened risk of storm damage for the South Indian Ocean Island States and the countries of the southern African subcontinent as a result of the strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surges associated with these storms, and the large radial extent at category 5 strength.},
author = {Fitchett, Jennifer M},
doi = {10.17159/sajs.2018/4426},
issn = {1996-7489},
journal = {South African Journal of Science},
month = {nov},
number = {11/12},
pages = {1--6},
publisher = {scieloza},
title = {{Recent emergence of CAT5 tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean}},
url = {http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci{\_}arttext{\&}pid=S0038-23532018000600018{\&}nrm=iso https://www.sajs.co.za/article/view/4426},
volume = {114},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Flannigan2013,
author = {Flannigan, Mike and Cantin, Alan S. and de Groot, William J. and Wotton, Mike and Newbery, Alison and Gowman, Lynn M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.022},
issn = {03781127},
journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
month = {apr},
pages = {54--61},
title = {{Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378112712006196},
volume = {294},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Fleisher2017,
abstract = {A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38{\%} to 20{\%} between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P {\textless} 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15{\%} higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41{\%} and 23{\%} for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6{\%} per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6{\%} per °C, and declined 2{\%} for every 10{\%} decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P {\textless} 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach.},
author = {Fleisher, David H. and Condori, Bruno and Quiroz, Roberto and Alva, Ashok and Asseng, Senthold and Barreda, Carolina and Bindi, Marco and Boote, Kenneth J. and Ferrise, Roberto and Franke, Angelinus C. and Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M. and Harahagazwe, Dieudonne and Hoogenboom, Gerrit and {Naresh Kumar}, Soora and Merante, Paolo and Nendel, Claas and Olesen, Jorgen E. and Parker, Phillip S. and Raes, Dirk and Raymundo, Rubi and Ruane, Alex C. and Stockle, Claudio and Supit, Iwan and Vanuytrecht, Eline and Wolf, Joost and Woli, Prem},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13411},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {climate change,crop modeling,model improvement,solanum tuberosum,uncertainty analysis,yield sensitivity},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1258--1281},
title = {{A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13411},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Fluixa-Sanmartin2018,
author = {Fluix{\'{a}}-Sanmart{\'{i}}n, Javier and Altarejos-Garc{\'{i}}a, Luis and Morales-Torres, Adri{\'{a}}n and Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-18-2471-2018},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {2471--2488},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Review article: Climate change impacts on dam safety}},
url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/18/2471/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Fonseca2019,
abstract = {Abstract The joint and relative effects of future land-use and climate change on fire occurrence in the Amazon, as well its seasonal variation, are still poorly understood, despite its recognized importance. Using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), we combined regional land-use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble to investigate the monthly probability of fire occurrence in the mid (2041?2070) and late (2071?2100) 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon. We found striking spatial variation in the fire relative probability (FRP) change along the months, with October showing the highest overall change. Considering climate only, the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 (a threshold chosen based on the literature) in October increases 6.9{\%} by 2071?2100 compared to the baseline period under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 27.7{\%} under the RCP 8.5. The best-case land-use scenario (?Sustainability?) alone causes a 10.6{\%} increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3, while the worse-case land-use scenario (?Fragmentation?) causes a 73.2{\%} increase. The optimistic climate-land-use projection (Sustainability and RCP 4.5) causes a 21.3{\%} increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 in October by 2071?2100 compared to the baseline period. In contrast, the most pessimistic climate-land-use projection (Fragmentation and RCP 8.5) causes a widespread increase in FRP (113.5{\%} increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3), and prolongs the fire season, displacing its peak. Combining the Sustainability land-use and RCP 8.5 scenarios causes a 39.1{\%} increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3. We conclude that avoiding the regress on land-use governance in the Brazilian Amazon (i.e., decrease in the extension and level of conservation of the protected areas, reduced environmental laws enforcement, extensive road paving, and increased deforestation) would substantially mitigate the effects of climate change on fire probability, even under the most pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario.},
author = {Fonseca, Marisa Gesteira and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra and Arai, Egidio and Anderson, Liana Oighenstein and Rosan, Thais Michele and Shimabukuro, Yosio Edemir and de Arag{\~{a}}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14709},
issn = {1354-1013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {2931--2946},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Effects of climate and land-use change scenarios on fire probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon}},
volume = {25},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Fontana2015,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} In the last decades the Euro-Mediterranean region has experienced an increase in extreme temperature events such as heat waves. These extreme weather conditions can strongly affect arable crop growth and final yields. Here, early heat waves over Italy from 1995 to 2013 are identified and characterised and their impact on durum wheat yields is investigated. As expected, results confirm the impact of the 2003 heat wave and highlight a high percentage of concurrence of early heat waves and significant negative yield anomalies in 13 out of 39 durum wheat production areas. In south-eastern Italy (the most important area for durum wheat production), the percentage of concurrent events exceeds 80 {\%}.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Fontana, G. and Toreti, A. and Ceglar, A. and {De Sanctis}, G.},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-15-1631-2015},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {1631--1637},
title = {{Early heat waves over Italy and their impacts on durum wheat yields}},
url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/15/1631/2015/},
volume = {15},
year = {2015}
}
@article{FontrodonaBach2018,
abstract = {Abstract Accumulated snow amounts are a key climate change indicator. It combines the competing effects of climate change-driven changes in precipitation and stronger snowmelt related to increasing temperatures. Here we provide observational evidence from a pan-European in situ data set that mean snow depth generally decreases stronger than extreme snow depth. Widespread decreases in maximum and mean snow depth were found over Europe, except in the coldest climates, with an average decrease of ?12.2{\%}/decade for mean snow depth and ?11.4{\%}/decade for maximum snow depth since 1951. These trends accelerated after the 1980s. This has strong implications for the availability of freshwater in spring, while extremes in snow depth, usually very disruptive to society, are decreasing at a slower pace.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2018GL079799},
author = {{Fontrodona Bach}, A and Schrier, G. and Melsen, L A and {Klein Tank}, A M G and Teuling, A J},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079799},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Europe,acceleration,decreasing,snow depth,widespread},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {12312--12319},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Widespread and Accelerated Decrease of Observed Mean and Extreme Snow Depth Over Europe}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079799 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL079799},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Forbes2016,
abstract = {Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social–ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism.},
author = {Forbes, Bruce C. and Kumpula, Timo and Meschtyb, Nina and Laptander, Roza and Macias-Fauria, Marc and Zetterberg, Pentti and Verdonen, Mariana and Skarin, Anna and Kim, Kwang-Yul and Boisvert, Linette N. and Stroeve, Julienne C. and Bartsch, Annett},
doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2016.0466},
issn = {1744-9561},
journal = {Biology Letters},
keywords = {Barents and Kara seas,Climate change,Nenets herders,Rangifer tarandus,West Siberia,Yamal Peninsula},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {20160466},
publisher = {Royal Society Publishing},
title = {{Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0466},
volume = {12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ford2015,
abstract = {Low-lying reef islands are considered highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Accelerating rates of sea level rise as a result of anthropogenic climate change are expected to destabilise islands and threaten to render entire nations uninhabitable. Using historic aerial photographs and recent high-resolution satellite imagery, shoreline changes on six atolls and two mid-ocean reef islands in the Republic of the Marshall Islands were analysed. Results reveal that since the middle of the 20th century more shoreline has accreted than eroded, with 17.23{\%} showing erosion, compared to 39.74{\%} accretion and 43.03{\%} showing no change. The net result of these changes was the growth of the islands examined from 9.09 km2to 9.46 km2between World War Two (WWII) and 2010. Analyses of shoreline changes since the 1970s show that shorelines are accreting albeit at a slower rate, with rates of change between the 1970s and 2010 of 0.29 m/dec compared with 0.77 m/dec between WWII and 1970s. The observed shoreline changes occur in the context of locally rising sea level. As sea level continues to rise there is a critical need for regular monitoring of reef islands in order to better understand the spatio-temporal variability of reef island change and guide future adaptation efforts within atoll nations.},
author = {Ford, Murray R. and Kench, Paul S.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ancene.2015.11.002},
isbn = {2213-3054},
issn = {22133054},
journal = {Anthropocene},
keywords = {Adaptation,Atoll nations,Reef islands,Sea level rise,Shoreline change},
pages = {14--24},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Multi-decadal shoreline changes in response to sea level rise in the Marshall Islands}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2015.11.002},
volume = {11},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Forkel2019,
abstract = {The apparent decline in the global incidence of fire between 1996 and 2015, as measured by satellite-observations of burned area, has been related to socioeconomic and land use changes. However, recent decades have also seen changes in climate and vegetation that influence fire and fire-enabled vegetation models do not reproduce the apparent decline. Given that the satellite-derived burned area datasets are still relatively short ({\textless}20 years), this raises questions both about the robustness of the apparent decline and what causes it. We use two global satellite-derived burned area datasets and a data-driven fire model to (1) assess the spatio-temporal robustness of the burned area trends and (2) to relate the trends to underlying changes in temperature, precipitation, human population density and vegetation conditions. Although the satellite datasets and simulation all show a decline in global burned area over {\~{}}20 years, the trend is not significant and is strongly affected by the start and end year chosen for trend analysis and the year-to-year variability in burned area. The global and regional trends shown by the two satellite datasets are poorly correlated for the common overlapping period (2001–2015) and the fire model simulates changes in global and regional burned area that lie within the uncertainties of the satellite datasets. The model simulations show that recent increases in temperature would lead to increased burned area but this effect is compensated by increasing wetness or increases in population, both of which lead to declining burned area. Increases in vegetation cover and density associated with recent greening trends lead to increased burned area in fuel-limited regions. Our analyses show that global and regional burned area trends result from the interaction of compensating trends in controls of wildfire at regional scales.},
author = {Forkel, Matthias and Dorigo, Wouter and Lasslop, Gitta and Chuvieco, Emilio and Hantson, Stijn and Heil, Angelika and Teubner, Irene and Thonicke, Kirsten and Harrison, Sandy P},
doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/ab25d2},
issn = {2515-7620},
journal = {Environmental Research Communications},
month = {jun},
number = {5},
pages = {051005},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Recent global and regional trends in burned area and their compensating environmental controls}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab25d2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab25d2},
volume = {1},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Forzieri2016a,
abstract = {While reported losses of climate-related hazards are at historically high levels, climate change is likely to enhance the risk posed by extreme weather events. Several regions are likely to be exposed to multiple climate hazards, yet their modeling in a joint scheme is still at the early stages. A multi-hazard framework to map exposure to multiple climate extremes in Europe along the twenty-first century is hereby presented. Using an ensemble of climate projections, changes in the frequency of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, streamflow droughts, wildfires and windstorms are evaluated. Corresponding variations in expected annual exposure allow for a quantitative comparison of hazards described by different process characteristics and metrics. Projected changes in exposure depict important variations in hazard scenarios, especially those linked to rising temperatures, and spatial patterns largely modulated by local climate conditions. Results show that Europe will likely face a progressive increase in overall climate hazard with a prominent spatial gradient towards south-western regions mainly driven by the rise of heat waves, droughts and wildfires. Key hotspots emerge particularly along coastlines and in floodplains, often highly populated and economically pivotal, where floods and windstorms could be critical in combination with other climate hazards. Projected increases in exposure will be larger for very extreme events due to their pronounced changes in frequency. Results of this appraisal provide useful input for forthcoming European disaster risk and adaptation policy.},
author = {Forzieri, Giovanni and Feyen, Luc and Russo, Simone and Vousdoukas, Michalis and Alfieri, Lorenzo and Outten, Stephen and Migliavacca, Mirco and Bianchi, Alessandra and Rojas, Rodrigo and Cid, Alba},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1661-x},
isbn = {0165-0009 1573-1480},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {105--119},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1661-x},
volume = {137},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Forzieri2017,
abstract = {BACKGROUND The observed increase in the effects on human beings of weather-related disasters has been largely attributed to the rise in population exposed, with a possible influence of global warming. Yet, future risks of weather-related hazards on human lives in view of climate and demographic changes have not been comprehensively investigated. METHODS We assessed the risk of weather-related hazards to the European population in terms of annual numbers of deaths in 30 year intervals relative to the reference period (1981-2010) up to the year 2100 (2011-40, 2041-70, and 2071-100) by combining disaster records with high-resolution hazard and demographic projections in a prognostic modelling framework. We focused on the hazards with the greatest impacts-heatwaves and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods, and windstorms-and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions. We modelled long-term demographic dynamics through a territorial modelling platform to represent the evolution of human exposure under a corresponding middle-of-the-road socioeconomic scenario. We appraised human vulnerability to weather extremes on the basis of more than 2300 records collected from disaster databases during the reference period and assumed it to be static under a scenario of no adaptation. FINDINGS We found that weather-related disasters could affect about two-thirds of the European population annually by the year 2100 (351 million people exposed per year [uncertainty range 126 million to 523 million] during the period 2071-100) compared with 5{\%} during the reference period (1981-2010; 25 million people exposed per year). About 50 times the number of fatalities occurring annually during the reference period (3000 deaths) could occur by the year 2100 (152 000 deaths [80 500-239 800]). Future effects show a prominent latitudinal gradient, increasing towards southern Europe, where the premature mortality rate due to weather extremes (about 700 annual fatalities per million inhabitants [482-957] during the period 2071-100 vs 11 during the reference period) could become the greatest environmental risk factor. The projected changes are dominated by global warming (accounting for more than 90{\%} of the rise in risk to human beings), mainly through a rise in the frequency of heatwaves (about 2700 heat-related fatalities per year during the reference period vs 151 500 [80 100-239 000] during the period 2071-100). INTERPRETATION Global warming could result in rapidly rising costs of weather-related hazards to human beings in Europe unless adequate adaptation measures are taken. Our results could aid in prioritisation of regional investments to address the unequal burden of effects on human beings of weather-related hazards and differences in adaptation capacities. FUNDING European Commission.},
author = {Forzieri, Giovanni and Cescatti, Alessandro and e Silva, Filipe Batista and Feyen, Luc},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30082-7},
issn = {2542-5196},
journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},
month = {aug},
number = {5},
pages = {e200--e208},
pmid = {29851641},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2542519617300827},
volume = {1},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Forzieri2014,
abstract = {There is growing concern in Europe about the possible rise in the severity and frequency of extreme drought events as a manifestation of climate change. In order to plan suitable adaptation strategies it is important for decision makers to know how drought conditions will develop at regional scales. This paper therefore addresses the issue of future developments in streamflow drought characteristics across Europe. Through offline coupling of a hydrological model with an ensemble of bias-corrected climate simulations (IPCC SRES A1B) and a water use scenario (Economy First), long-term (1961-2100) ensemble streamflow simulations are generated that account for changes in climate, and the uncertainty therein, and in water consumption. Using extreme value analysis we derive minimum flow and deficit indices and evaluate how the magnitude and severity of low-flow conditions may evolve throughout the 21st century. This analysis shows that streamflow droughts will become more severe and persistent in many parts of Europe due to climate change, except for northern and northeastern parts of Europe. In particular, southern regions will face strong reductions in low flows. Future water use will aggravate the situation by 10-30{\%} in southern Europe, whereas in some sub-regions in western, central and eastern Europe a climate-driven signal of reduced droughts may be reversed due to intensive water use. The multi-model ensemble projections of more frequent and severe streamflow droughts in the south and decreasing drought hazard in the north are highly significant, while the projected changes are more dissonant in a transition zone in between.},
author = {Forzieri, G and Feyen, L and Rojas, R and Fl{\"{o}}rke, M and Wimmer, F and Bianchi, A},
doi = {10.5194/hess-18-85-2014},
file = {::},
isbn = {1027-5606},
issn = {10275606},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {1},
pages = {85--108},
title = {{Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe}},
volume = {18},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Forzieri2018,
abstract = {Extreme climatic events are likely to become more frequent owing to global warming. This may put additional stress on critical infrastructures with typically long life spans. However, little is known about the risks of multiple climate extremes on critical infrastructures at regional to continental scales. Here we show how single- and multi-hazard damage to energy, transport, industrial, and social critical infrastructures in Europe are likely to develop until the year 2100 under the influence of climate change. We combine a set of high-resolution climate hazard projections, a detailed representation of physical assets in various sectors and their sensitivity to the hazards, and more than 1100 records of losses from climate extremes in a prognostic modelling framework. We find that damages could triple by the 2020s, multiply six-fold by mid-century, and amount to more than 10 times present damage of €3.4 billion per year by the end of the century due only to climate change. Damage from heatwaves, droughts in southern Europe, and coastal floods shows the most dramatic rise, but the risks of inland flooding, windstorms, and forest fires will also increase in Europe, with varying degrees of change across regions. Economic losses are highest for the industry, transport, and energy sectors. Future losses will not be incurred equally across Europe. Southern and south-eastern European countries will be most affected and, as a result, will probably require higher costs of adaptation. The findings of this study could aid in prioritizing regional investments to address the unequal burden of impacts and differences in adaptation capacities across Europe.},
author = {Forzieri, Giovanni and Bianchi, Alessandra and e Silva, Filipe Batista and {Marin Herrera}, Mario A. and Leblois, Antoine and Lavalle, Carlo and Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H. and Feyen, Luc},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.007},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {jan},
pages = {97--107},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378017304077?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378017304077},
volume = {48},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Frolicher2018a,
abstract = {Recent marine heat waves have caused devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Substantial progress in understanding past and future changes in marine heat waves and their risks for marine ecosystems is needed to predict how marine systems, and the goods and services they provide, will evolve in the future.},
author = {Fr{\"{o}}licher, Thomas L. and Laufk{\"{o}}tter, Charlotte},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-03163-6},
isbn = {2041-1723},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {650},
pmid = {29440658},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Emerging risks from marine heat waves}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03163-6},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Frolicher2019,
author = {Fr{\"{o}}licher, Thomas L.},
booktitle = {Predicting Future Oceans},
doi = {10.1016/B978-0-12-817945-1.00005-8},
editor = {Cisneros-Montemayor, Andr{\'{e}}s M. and Cheung, William W.L. and Ota, Yoshitaka},
isbn = {9780128179451},
pages = {53--60},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Chapter 5 – Extreme climatic events in the ocean}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/B9780128179451000058},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Frolicher2020,
author = {Fr{\"{o}}licher, T L and Aschwanden, M T and Gruber, N and Jaccard, S L and Dunne, J P and Paynter, D},
doi = {10.1029/2020GB006601},
issn = {0886-6236},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {e2020GB006601},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Contrasting Upper and Deep Ocean Oxygen Response to Protracted Global Warming}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GB006601},
volume = {34},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Frolicher2018,
abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months1 and can extend up to thousands of kilometres2. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems3–11 and fisheries12–14 to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences15 and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century16, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.},
author = {Fr{\"{o}}licher, Thomas L. and Fischer, Erich M. and Gruber, Nicolas},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9},
isbn = {1476-4687},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Climate and Earth system modelling,Physical oceanography,Projection and prediction},
month = {aug},
number = {7718},
pages = {360--364},
pmid = {30111788},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Marine heatwaves under global warming}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0383-9},
volume = {560},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Frazier2017,
abstract = {Spatial patterns of rainfall in Hawai‘i are among the most diverse in the world. As the global climate warms, it is important to understand observed rainfall variations to provide context for future changes. This is especially important for isolated oceanic islands where freshwater resources are limited, and understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the supply of freshwater is critical. Utilizing a high-resolution gridded data set of monthly and annual rainfall for Hawai‘i from January 1920 to December 2012, seasonal and annual trends were calculated for every 250-m pixel across the state and mapped to produce spatially continuous trend maps. To assess the stability of these trends, a running trend analysis was performed on 34 selected stations. From 1920 to 2012, over 90{\%} of the state experienced drying trends, with Hawai‘i Island, and in particular the western part of the island, experiencing the largest significant long-term declines in annual and dry season rainfall. The running trend analysis highlighted the multi-decadal variability present in these trends, and revealed that the only region in the state with persistent annual and dry season trends through the study period is the western part of Hawai‘i Island; for most other regions, the drying trends were not significant until the most recent part of the record was included. These results support previous studies that indicate drying across the state over recent decades, and reveal the timing of upward and downward trends as well as important spatial details for natural resource management in Hawai‘i.},
author = {Frazier, Abby G. and Giambelluca, Thomas W.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4862},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Hawai‘i,Mann–Kendall,rainfall,running trend analysis,trends},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {2522--2531},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Ltd},
title = {{Spatial trend analysis of Hawaiian rainfall from 1920 to 2012}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4862},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Frederikse2020,
abstract = {The rate of global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 has varied over time, but the contributing factors are still poorly understood1. Previous assessments found that the summed contributions of ice-mass loss, terrestrial water storage and thermal expansion of the ocean could not be reconciled with observed changes in global-mean sea level, implying that changes in sea level or some contributions to those changes were poorly constrained2,3. Recent improvements to observational data, our understanding of the main contributing processes to sea-level change and methods for estimating the individual contributions, mean another attempt at reconciliation is warranted. Here we present a probabilistic framework to reconstruct sea level since 1900 using independent observations and their inherent uncertainties. The sum of the contributions to sea-level change from thermal expansion of the ocean, ice-mass loss and changes in terrestrial water storage is consistent with the trends and multidecadal variability in observed sea level on both global and basin scales, which we reconstruct from tide-gauge records. Ice-mass loss—predominantly from glaciers—has caused twice as much sea-level rise since 1900 as has thermal expansion. Mass loss from glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet explains the high rates of global sea-level rise during the 1940s, while a sharp increase in water impoundment by artificial reservoirs is the main cause of the lower-than-average rates during the 1970s. The acceleration in sea-level rise since the 1970s is caused by the combination of thermal expansion of the ocean and increased ice-mass loss from Greenland. Our results reconcile the magnitude of observed global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 with estimates based on the underlying processes, implying that no additional processes are required to explain the observed changes in sea level since 1900.},
author = {Frederikse, Thomas and Landerer, Felix and Caron, Lambert and Adhikari, Surendra and Parkes, David and Humphrey, Vincent W. and Dangendorf, S{\"{o}}nke and Hogarth, Peter and Zanna, Laure and Cheng, Lijing and Wu, Yun-Hao},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2591-3},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {aug},
number = {7821},
pages = {393--397},
pmid = {32814886},
title = {{The causes of sea-level rise since 1900}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2591-3},
volume = {584},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Freeland2013,
author = {Freeland, Howard J.},
doi = {10.1080/07055900.2012.754330},
issn = {0705-5900},
journal = {Atmosphere-Ocean},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {126--133},
title = {{Evidence of Change in the Winter Mixed Layer in the Northeast Pacific Ocean: A Problem Revisited}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07055900.2012.754330},
volume = {51},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Frieler2013,
abstract = {Mass coral bleaching events have become a widespread phenomenon causing serious concerns with regard to the survival of corals. Triggered by high ocean temperatures, bleaching events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Here, we provide a comprehensive global study of coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change, based on an extended set of emissions scenarios and models. We show that preserving {\textgreater}10{\%} of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting warming to below 1.5 °C (atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) range: 1.3–1.8 °C) relative to pre-industrial levels. Even under optimistic assumptions regarding corals' thermal adaptation, one-third (9–60{\%}, 68{\%} uncertainty range) of the world's coral reefs are projected to be subject to long-term degradation under the most optimistic new IPCC emissions scenario, RCP3-PD. Under RCP4.5 this fraction increases to two-thirds (30–88{\%}, 68{\%} uncertainty range). Possible effects of ocean acidification reducing thermal tolerance are assessed within a sensitivity experiment.},
author = {Frieler, K. and Meinshausen, M. and Golly, A. and Mengel, M. and Lebek, K. and Donner, S. D. and Hoegh-Guldberg, O.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1674},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Conservation biology,Coral reefs,Ocean sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {165--170},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1674},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@misc{Fritz2017,
author = {Fritz, Michael and Vonk, Jorien E. and Lantuit, Hugues},
booktitle = {Nature Climate Change},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3188},
issn = {17586798},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {6--7},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Collapsing Arctic coastlines}},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Frolova2017,
abstract = {Hydrological extreme events pose an imminent risk to society and economics. In this paper, various aspects of hydrological hazards in Russia are analysed at different scales of risk assessment. It is shown that the number of hydrological and meteorological hazards in Russia has been growing every year. The frequency of economic losses associated with extreme low flow in this century has increased by factor five compared to the last decade of the previous century. With regard to floods, an interesting spatial patter can be observed. On the one hand, the number of floods in the Asian part of the country has increased, whereas on the other hand, the number and intensity of floods in estuarine areas in the European part of Russia have significantly reduced since the middle of the twentieth century, especially in the 2000s. This decrease can be attributed to runoff flooding in the mouths of regulated rivers, with an effective system of flood and ice jam protection. The analysis shows that there is an 8–12-year periodicity in the number of flood occurrences and that flood surges have intensified over the last 110 years, especially on the European territory of Russia. An integrated index that accounts for flood hazards and socio-economic vulnerability was calculated for each region of Russia. A classification of flood risk was also developed, taking into account more than 20 hydrological and social–economic characteristics. Based on these characteristics, hazard and vulnerability maps for entire Russia were generated which can be used for water management and the development of future water resources plans.},
author = {Frolova, N L and Kireeva, M B and Magrickiy, D V and Bologov, M B and Kopylov, V N and Hall, J and Semenov, V A and Kosolapov, A E and Dorozhkin, E V and Korobkina, E A and Rets, E P and Akutina, Y and Djamalov, R G and Efremova, N A and Sazonov, A A and Agafonova, S A and Belyakova, P A},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-016-2632-2},
issn = {1573-0840},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
number = {1},
pages = {103--131},
title = {{Hydrological hazards in Russia: origin, classification, changes and risk assessment}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2632-2},
volume = {88},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Froude2018,
abstract = {Landslides are a ubiquitous hazard in terrestrial environments with slopes, incurring human fatalities in ur- ban settlements, along transport corridors and at sites of rural industry. Assessment of landslide risk requires high-quality landslide databases. Recently, global landslide databases have shown the extent to which landslides impact on soci- ety and identified areas most at risk. Previous global analysis has focused on rainfall-triggered landslides over short ∼5- year observation periods. This paper presents spatiotempo- ral analysis of a global dataset of fatal non-seismic land- slides, covering the period from January 2004 to December 2016. The data show that in total 55 997 people were killed in 4862 distinct landslide events. The spatial distribution of landslides is heterogeneous, with Asia representing the dom- inant geographical area. There are high levels of interannual variation in the occurrence of landslides. Although more ac- tive years coincide with recognised patterns of regional rain- fall driven by climate anomalies, climate modes (such as El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation) cannot yet be related to landslid- ing, requiring a landslide dataset of 30+ years. Our analysis demonstrates that landslide occurrence triggered by human activity is increasing, in particular in relation to construction, illegal mining and hill cutting. This supports notions that hu- man disturbance may be more detrimental to future landslide incidence than climate.},
author = {Froude, Melanie J and Petley, David N},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-18-2161-2018},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
pages = {2161--2181},
title = {{Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016}},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Fu2013,
abstract = {Whether the dry-season length will increase is a central question in determining the fate of the rainforests over Amazonia and the future global atmospheric CO2 concentration. We show observationally that the dry-season length over southern Amazonia has increased significantly since 1979. We do not know what has caused this change, although it resembles the effects of anthropogenic climate change. The global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report seem to substantially underestimate the variability of the dry-season length. Such a bias implies that the future change of the dry-season length, and hence the risk of rainforest die-back, may be underestimated by the projections of these models.We have observed that the dry-season length (DSL) has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, primarily owing to a delay of its ending dates (dry-season end, DSE), and is accompanied by a prolonged fire season. A poleward shift of the subtropical jet over South America and an increase of local convective inhibition energy in austral winter (June–August) seem to cause the delay of the DSE in austral spring (September–November). These changes cannot be simply linked to the variability of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Although they show some resemblance to the effects of anthropogenic forcings reported in the literature, we cannot attribute them to this cause because of inadequate representation of these processes in the global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. These models significantly underestimate the variability of the DSE and DSL and their controlling processes. Such biases imply that the future change of the DSE and DSL may be underestimated by the climate projections provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report models. Although it is not clear whether the observed increase of the DSL will continue in the future, were it to continue at half the rate of that observed, the long DSL and fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The large uncertainty shown in this study highlights the need for a focused effort to better understand and simulate these changes over southern Amazonia.},
author = {Fu, Rong and Yin, Lei and Li, Wenhong and Arias, Paola A and Dickinson, Robert E and Huang, Lei and Chakraborty, Sudip and Fernandes, Katia and Liebmann, Brant and Fisher, Rosie and Myneni, Ranga B},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1302584110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {45},
pages = {18110--18115},
title = {{Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/110/45/18110.abstract http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1302584110},
volume = {110},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Fuentes-Franco2015,
author = {Fuentes-Franco, Ram{\'{o}}n and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo and Pavia, Edgar G. and Diro, Gulilat Tefera and Graef, Federico},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2258-6},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {425--440},
title = {{Inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America and its relationship to sea surface temperature from a set of future projections from CMIP5 GCMs and RegCM4 CORDEX simulations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2258-6},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Fyfe2017,
abstract = {Mountain snowpack in the western United States has declined over the past three decades. Fyfe et al. show that this trend cannot be explained by natural variability alone and show that under a business-as-usual scenario a further loss of up to 60{\%} in mountain snowpack is projected in the coming three decades.},
author = {Fyfe, John C. and Derksen, Chris and Mudryk, Lawrence and Flato, Gregory M. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Swart, Neil C. and Molotch, Noah P. and Zhang, Xuebin and Wan, Hui and Arora, Vivek K. and Scinocca, John and Jiao, Yanjun},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms14996},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Attribution,Hydrology,Projection and prediction},
month = {apr},
pages = {14996},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ncomms14996},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gadek2017,
author = {G{\c{a}}dek, Bogdan and Kaczka, Ryszard J. and R{\c{a}}czkowska, Zofia and Rojan, El{\.{z}}bieta and Casteller, Alejandro and Bebi, Peter},
doi = {10.1016/j.catena.2017.07.005},
issn = {03418162},
journal = {CATENA},
month = {nov},
pages = {201--212},
title = {{Snow avalanche activity in {\.{Z}}leb {\.{Z}}andarmerii in a time of climate change (Tatra Mts., Poland)}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0341816217302382},
volume = {158},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gabric2016,
abstract = {During the austral spring of 2009 several significant dust storms occurred in south-east Australia including the so-called ‘Red Dawn' event in late September. Estimates of 2.5 Mt total suspended particulate sediment lost off the Australian coast in the 3000km long dust plume make it the largest off-continent loss of soil ever reported. Much of this material was transported over the coastline of New South Wales and into the adjacent Tasman Sea. Long-term model simulations of dust deposition over the south-west Tasman Sea suggest the amount deposited during the spring of 2009 was approximately three times the long-term monthly average. Previous satellite-based analyses of the biological response of Tasman Sea waters to dust-derived nutrients are equivocal or have observed no response. Satellite-derived surface chlorophyll concentrations in the southern Tasman during the spring of 2009 are well above the climatological mean, with positive anomalies as high as 0.5mgm–3. Dust transport simulations indicate strong deposition to the ocean surface, which during both the ‘Red Dawn' event and mid-October 2009 dust storm events was enhanced by heavy precipitation. Cloud processing of the dust aerosol may have enhanced iron bioavailability for phytoplankton uptake.},
author = {Gabric, A. J. and Cropp, R. and McTainsh, G. and Butler, H. and Johnston, B. M. and O'Loingsigh, T. and {Van Tran}, Dien},
doi = {10.1071/MF14321},
issn = {1323-1650},
journal = {Marine and Freshwater Research},
keywords = {Australia,iron,nutrient,phytoplankton},
number = {8},
pages = {1090},
title = {{Tasman Sea biological response to dust storm events during the austral spring of 2009}},
url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=MF14321},
volume = {67},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Gaffin2012,
author = {Gaffin, S R and Imhoff, M and Rosenzweig, C and Khanbilvardi, R and Pasqualini, A and Kong, A Y Y and Grillo, D and Freed, A and Hillel, D and Hartung, E},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014029},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {014029},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Bright is the new black – multi-year performance of high-albedo roofs in an urban climate}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/7/i=1/a=014029?key=crossref.7068d4efc00266f68da7a6e24b5a3dee},
volume = {7},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Gaire2015,
abstract = {Nepal has a complicated geophysical structure that is prone to various kinds of  disasters. Nepal ranks the most disaster-prone country in the world and has experienced several natural calamities, causing high property and life losses. Disasters are caused by natural processes, but may be increased by human activities. The overall objective of this paper is to analyze the disaster risk profile and existing legal framework of Nepal. The paper is based on secondary data sources. Major causative factors for floods and landslides are heavy and continuous rainfall, outburst floods, infrastructure failure, and deforestation. Historical data of natural disasters in Nepal show that water-induced disasters have killed hundreds of people and affected thousands every year. Likewise, properties worth millions of US dollars have been damaged. There is an increasing trend toward landslides and floods, which will likely continue to rise if proper intervention is not taken. A positive correlation between water-induced disasters and deaths has been observed. Nepal has a poor Index for Risk Management (INFORM). There are fluctuations in the recording of death data caused by flood and landslides. The Government of Nepal focuses more on the response phase than on the preparedness phase of disasters. The existing disaster management act seems to be weak and outdated. There is a gap in current legal procedure, so the country is in dire need of a comprehensive legal framework. The new proposed act seems to take a much broader approach to disaster management. With a long-term vision of managing disaster risk in the country, the Government of Nepal has begun the Nepal Risk Reduction Consortium (NRRC) in collaboration with development and humanitarian partners. In order to improve the vulnerability of Nepal, an early warning system, mainstreaming disasters with development, research activities, community participation and awareness, and a rainfall monitoring system must all be a focus.},
author = {Gaire, Surya and {Castro Delgado}, Rafael and {Arcos Gonz{\'{a}}lez}, Pedro},
doi = {10.2147/RMHP.S90238},
issn = {1179-1594 (Print)},
journal = {Risk management and healthcare policy},
language = {eng},
pages = {139--149},
pmid = {26366106},
title = {{Disaster risk profile and existing legal framework of Nepal: floods and landslides.}},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Galli2017a,
abstract = {Frequency and severity of heat waves is expected to increase as a consequence of climate change with important impacts on human and ecosystems health. However, while many studies explored the projected occurrence of hot extremes on terrestrial systems, few studies dealt with marine systems, so that both the expected change in marine heat waves occurrence and the effects on marine organisms and ecosystems remain less understood and surprisingly poorly quantified. Here we: (i) assess how much more frequent, severe, and depth-penetrating marine heat waves will be in the Mediterranean area in the next decades by post-processing the output of an ocean general circulation model; and (ii) show that heat waves increase will impact on many species that live in shallow waters and have reduced motility, and related economic activities. This information is made available also as a dataset of temperature threshold exceedance indexes that can be used in combination with biological information to produce risk assessment maps for target species or biomes across the whole Mediterranean Sea. As case studies we compared projected heat waves occurrence with thermotolerance thresholds of low motility organisms. Results suggest a deepening of the survival horizon for red coral (Corallium rubrum, a commercially exploited benthic species already subjected to heat-related mass mortality events) and coralligenous reefs as well as a reduction of suitable farming sites for the mussel Mythilus galloprovincialis. In recent years Mediterranean circalittoral ecosystems (coralligenous) have been severely and repeatedly impacted by marine heat waves. Our results support that equally deleterious events are expected in the near future also for other ecologically important habitats (e.g., seagrass meadows) and aquaculture activities (bivalvae), and point at the need for mitigation strategies.},
author = {Galli, Giovanni and Solidoro, Cosimo and Lovato, Tomas},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2017.00136},
isbn = {2296-7745},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
pages = {136},
pmid = {25248336},
publisher = {Frontiers},
title = {{Marine Heat Waves Hazard 3D Maps and the Risk for Low Motility Organisms in a Warming Mediterranean Sea}},
volume = {4},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gallo2019,
abstract = {The Philippines is one of the most exposed countries in the world to tropical cyclones. In order to provide information to help the country build resilience and plan for a future under a warmer climate, we build on previous research to investigate implications of future climate change on tropical cyclone activity in the Philip-pines. Experiments were conducted using three regional climate models with horizontal resolutions of approximately 12 km (HadGEM3-RA) and 25 km (HadRM3P and RegCM4). The simulations are driven by boundary data from a subset of global climate model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble. Here we present the experimental design, the methodology for selecting CMIP5 models, the results of the model validation, and future projections of changes to tropical cyclone frequency and intensity by the mid-21st century. The models used are shown to represent the key climatological features of tropical cyclones across the domain, including the seasonality and general distribution of intensities, but issues remain in resolving very intense tropical cyclones and simulating realistic trajecto-ries across their life-cycles. Acknowledging model inadequacies and uncertainties associated with future climate model projections, the results show a range of plausible changes with a tendency for fewer but slightly more intense tropical cyclones. These results are consistent with the basin-wide results reported in the IPCC AR5 and provide clear evidence that the findings from these previous studies are applicable in the Philippines region. K E Y W O R D S climate projections, regional climate model, tropical cyclones},
author = {Gallo, Florian and Daron, Joseph and Macadam, Ian and Cinco, Thelma and Villafuerte, Marcelino and Buonomo, Erasmo and Tucker, Simon and Hein-Griggs, David and Jones, Richard G.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5870},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1181--1194},
title = {{High-resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5870},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gan,
author = {Gan, Rong and Luo, Yi and Zuo, Qiting and Sun, Lin},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.057},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {apr},
pages = {240--251},
title = {{Effects of projected climate change on the glacier and runoff generation in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169415000748 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169415000748},
volume = {523},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Ganeshi2020,
abstract = {Soil moisture (SM) and near-surface temperature variations are known to be linked through land–atmosphere interactions. While previous investigators have examined the association between temperature extremes and large-scale atmospheric circulation variability, the role of land–atmosphere coupling on temperature extremes over the monsoon-dominated region of India is not well understood. This study presents an analysis of hydro-meteorological datasets for the 67-year period (1948–2014) to assess the impact of long-term soil moisture changes on temperature extremes over the Indian region. Firstly, our findings show that the hot-spot of land–atmosphere coupling located across north-central India (NCI) is a region where SM variations can significantly influence temperature extremes. We further note that the NCI region experienced a significant declining trend in SM (about 1.1 mm/decade) during 1948–2014, in association with the decreasing trend of monsoon precipitation. Our findings suggest that the long-term decrease of SM over the NCI has favored increased incidence of temperature extremes through strengthening (weakening) of sensible (latent) heat fluxes; while the loss of soil moisture memory has additionally promoted increased variability of temperature extremes. The frequency, duration and variability of extreme temperatures are found to increase significantly by 1–2 occurrences, 5–6 days and 43{\%}, respectively, in association with a decrease of 10 mm SM over NCI. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions are fitted to extreme temperature duration (ExTD) using SM as a covariate to quantify the role of SM on temperature extremes over NCI. GEV analysis reveals that drier SM conditions (10th percentile) lead to an increase in the 67-year return value of ExTD by 9–10 days, relative to wet SM conditions (90th percentile) over NCI. Furthermore, it is interesting to note that the rise in temperature extremes over NCI in the recent three decades has been more prominent during the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons as compared to the pre-monsoon months.},
author = {Ganeshi, Naresh G and Mujumdar, Milind and Krishnan, R and Goswami, Mangesh},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125183},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Generalized extreme value distribution,North-central India,Soil moisture memory,Soil moisture-temperature coupling,Surface energy partitioning,Temperature extremes},
month = {oct},
pages = {125183},
title = {{Understanding the linkage between soil moisture variability and temperature extremes over the Indian region}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169420306430 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169420306430},
volume = {589},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ganguli2019,
abstract = {Abstract We analyze trends in compound flooding resulting from high coastal water levels (HCWLs) and peak river discharge over northwestern Europe during 1901?2014. Compound peak discharge associated with 37 stream gauges with at least 70 years of record availability near the North and Baltic Sea coasts is used. Compound flooding is assessed using a newly developed index, compound hazard ratio, that compares the severity of river flooding associated with HCWL with the at-site, T-year (a flood with 1/T chance of being exceeded in any given year) fluvial peak discharge. Our findings suggest a spatially coherent pattern in the dependence between HCWL and river peaks and in compound flood magnitudes and frequency. For higher return levels, we find upward trends in compound hazard ratio frequency at midlatitudes (gauges from 47°N to 60°N) and downward trends along the high latitude ({\textgreater}60°N) regions of northwestern Europe.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2019GL084220},
author = {Ganguli, Poulomi and Merz, Bruno},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084220},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {compound flood,dependence,northwestern Europe,risk modeling},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {10810--10820},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Trends in Compound Flooding in Northwestern Europe During 1901–2014}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084220},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{ISI:000425959700009,
abstract = {Large power transformers (LPTs) are critical yet vulnerable components of the power grid. More frequent and intense heat waves or high temperatures can degrade their operational lifetime and increase the risk of premature failure. Without adequate preparedness, a widespread situation could ultimately lead to prolonged grid disruption and incur excessive economic costs. Here, we investigate the potential impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in summertime ``hot days{\{}''{\}} on a selected LPT located in the Northeast United States. We apply an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of hot days based on the salient, associated large-scale atmospheric conditions, to assess the risk of future change in their occurrence. Compared with the more conventional approach that relies on climate model-simulated daily maximum temperature, the analogue method produces model medians of late twentieth century hot day frequency that are more consistent with observation and have stronger inter-model consensus. Under the climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both model daily maximum temperature and the analogue method indicate strong decadal increases in hot day frequency by the late twenty-first century, but the analogue method improves model consensus considerably. The decrease of transformer lifetime with temperature increase is further assessed. The improved inter-model consensus of the analogue method is viewed as a promising step toward providing actionable information for a more stable, reliable, and environmentally responsible national grid.},
author = {Gao, Xiang and Schlosser, C Adam and Morgan, Eric R},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2114-x},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {mar},
number = {1-2},
pages = {107--118},
title = {{Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States}},
volume = {147},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gao2018a,
abstract = {Global warming will unquestionably increase the impact of heat on individuals who work in already hot workplaces in hot climate areas. The increasing prevalence of this environmental health risk requires the improvement of assessment methods linked to meteorological data. Such new methods will help to reveal the size of the problem and design appropriate interventions at individual, workplace and societal level. The evaluation of occupational heat stress requires measurement of four thermal climate factors (air temperature, humidity, air velocity and heat radiation); available weather station data may serve this purpose. However, the use of meteorological data for occupational heat stress assessment is limited because weather stations do not traditionally and directly measure some important climate factors, e.g. solar radiation. In addition, local workplace environmental conditions such as local heat sources, metabolic heat production within the human body, and clothing properties, all affect the exchange of heat between the body and the environment. A robust occupational heat stress index should properly address all these factors. This article reviews and highlights a number of selected heat stress indices, indicating their advantages and disadvantages in relation to meteorological data, local workplace environments, body heat production and the use of protective clothing. These heat stress and heat strain indices include Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, Discomfort Index, Predicted Heat Strain index, and Universal Thermal Climate Index. In some cases, individuals may be monitored for heat strain through physiological measurements and medical supervision prior to and during exposure. Relevant protective and preventive strategies for alleviating heat strain are also reviewed and proposed.},
author = {Gao, Chuansi and Kuklane, Kalev and {\"{O}}stergren, Per Olof and Kjellstrom, Tord},
doi = {10.1007/s00484-017-1352-y},
issn = {00207128},
journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
keywords = {Global warming,Heat strain,Heat stress index,Meteorological data,Occupational and environmental health,Protection},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {359--371},
publisher = {Springer New York LLC},
title = {{Occupational heat stress assessment and protective strategies in the context of climate change}},
volume = {62},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gao2015,
author = {Gao, Yang and Leung, L Ruby and Lu, Jian and Masato, Giacomo},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044001},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {044001},
title = {{Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=4/a=044001?key=crossref.8ecd99f4af1c9a21b8f0d07f654f5122},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Garcia-Cueto2019,
abstract = {Global studies focusing on climate extremes in urban areas, specifically in Mexico, have not been approached with a sufficient level of detail, despite considerably increased risks for both infrastructure and human society. Based on 14 climate indices proposed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and the application of the nonparametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests, the observed trends of climate extremes in 16 urban areas in Mexico from 1980 to 2010 were analyzed. The results show that climate conditions over most cities of M{\'{e}}xico are changing, as indicated by a warming trend during the study period. Significant increases were detected in the annual average maximum temperature (TMX) and the annual average minimum temperature (TMN). There is no clear trend that the warmest days (TXx) are increasing, but the annual number of warm days (TX90p) and summer days (SU) has increased, and the cold days (TX10p) have decreased. Associated with these changes are concomitant decreases in fewer coldest nights (TNn), an increase in the percentage of days with warm nights (TN90p) and tropical nights (TR), and a decrease in the number of frost days (FD). In contrast, the analysis reveals a statistically significant decrease in the mean temperature and the amount of warm days in Mexico City, which could be associated with the increasing trend of atmospheric pollution and the continuous smoke and ash emissions from the volcano Popocatepetl, which disperse incoming solar radiation and reduce radiative forcing. Climate change indices based on daily precipitation data show positive trends in many cities. In general, an increasing trend in very wet days (R95p), a number of very heavy rainfall days ≥ 25 mm (R25), and the annual total wet days (PRCP) were observed. These results highlight the vulnerability of cities confronted with both global and local climate change and the importance of promoting effective local risk reduction measures as part of urban planning for city dwellers.},
author = {Garc{\'{i}}a-Cueto, O Rafael and Santill{\'{a}}n-Soto, N{\'{e}}stor and L{\'{o}}pez-Vel{\'{a}}zquez, Ernesto and Reyes-L{\'{o}}pez, Jaime and Cruz-Sotelo, Samantha and Ojeda-Ben{\'{i}}tez, Sara},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2620-4},
issn = {1434-4483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {775--790},
publisher = {Springer-Verlag Wien},
title = {{Trends of climate change indices in some Mexican cities from 1980 to 2010}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2620-4},
volume = {137},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Garcia2014,
abstract = {The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.},
author = {Garcia, R. A. and Cabeza, M. and Rahbek, C. and Araujo, M. B.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1247579},
isbn = {1095-9203 (Electronic)$\backslash$r0036-8075 (Linking)},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {may},
number = {6183},
pages = {1247579},
pmid = {24786084},
title = {{Multiple Dimensions of Climate Change and Their Implications for Biodiversity}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1247579 https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1247579},
volume = {344},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Gariano2016,
abstract = {Warming of the Earth climate system is unequivocal. That climate changes affect the stability of natural and engineered slopes and have consequences on landslides, is also undisputable. Less clear is the type, extent, magnitude and direction of the changes in the stability conditions, and on the location, abundance, activity and frequency of landslides in response to the projected climate changes. Climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales, complicating the evaluation of the climate impacts on landslides. We review the literature on landslide-climate studies, and find a bias in their geographical distribution, with large parts of the world not investigated. We recommend to fill the gap with new studies in Asia, South America, and Africa. We examine advantages and limits of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records. We consider changes in temperature, precipitation, wind and weather systems, and their direct and indirect effects on the stability of single slopes, and we use a probabilistic landslide hazard model to appraise regional landslide changes. Our review indicates that the modelling results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the Global Circulation Models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. We advocate for constructing ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios, and to use carefully results from worst-case scenarios that may over/under-estimate landslide hazards and risk. We further advocate that uncertainties in the landslide projections must be quantified and communicated to decision makers and the public. We perform a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, and we present a global map of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance. Where global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, we predict an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk. Finally, we give recommendations for landslide adaptation and risk reduction strategies in the framework of a warming climate.},
author = {Gariano, Stefano Luigi and Guzzetti, Fausto},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.011},
isbn = {0012-8252},
issn = {00128252},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate variables,Hazard,Landslide,Modelling,Risk},
month = {nov},
pages = {227--252},
pmid = {27475051},
title = {{Landslides in a changing climate}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216302458},
volume = {162},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Garreaud2017,
abstract = {Abstract. Since 2010 an uninterrupted sequence of dry years, with annual rainfall deficits ranging from 25 to 45 {\%}, has prevailed in central Chile (western South America, 30–38° S). Although intense 1- or 2-year droughts are recurrent in this Mediterranean-like region, the ongoing event stands out because of its longevity and large extent. The extraordinary character of the so-called central Chile megadrought (MD) was established against century long historical records and a millennial tree-ring reconstruction of regional precipitation. The largest MD-averaged rainfall relative anomalies occurred in the northern, semi-arid sector of central Chile, but the event was unprecedented to the south of 35° S. ENSO-neutral conditions have prevailed since 2011 (except for the strong El Ni{\~{n}}o in 2015), contrasting with La Ni{\~{n}}a conditions that often accompanied past droughts. The precipitation deficit diminished the Andean snowpack and resulted in amplified declines (up to 90 {\%}) of river flow, reservoir volumes and groundwater levels along central Chile and westernmost Argentina. In some semi-arid basins we found a decrease in the runoff-to-rainfall coefficient. A substantial decrease in vegetation productivity occurred in the shrubland-dominated, northern sector, but a mix of greening and browning patches occurred farther south, where irrigated croplands and exotic forest plantations dominate. The ongoing warming in central Chile, making the MD one of the warmest 6-year periods on record, may have also contributed to such complex vegetation changes by increasing potential evapotranspiration. We also report some of the measures taken by the central government to relieve the MD effects and the public perception of this event. The understanding of the nature and biophysical impacts of the MD helps as a foundation for preparedness efforts to confront a dry, warm future regional climate scenario.},
author = {Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} D. and Alvarez-Garreton, Camila and Barichivich, Jonathan and Boisier, Juan Pablo and Christie, Duncan and Galleguillos, Mauricio and LeQuesne, Carlos and McPhee, James and Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio},
doi = {10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017},
file = {::},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {6307--6327},
title = {{The 2010–2015 megadrought in central Chile: impacts on regional hydroclimate and vegetation}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/6307/2017/},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Garrett2006,
abstract = {Abstract Research in the effects of climate change on plant disease continues to be limited, but some striking progress has been made. At the genomic level, advances in technologies for the high-throughput analysis of gene expression have made it possible to begin discriminating responses to different biotic and abiotic stressors and potential trade-offs in responses. At the scale of the individual plant, enough experiments have been performed to begin synthesizing the effects of climate variables on infection rates, though pathosystem-specific characteristics make synthesis challenging. Models of plant disease have now been developed to incorporate more sophisticated climate predictions. At the population level, the adaptive potential of plant and pathogen populations may prove to be one of the most important predictors of the magnitude of climate change effects. Ecosystem ecologists are now addressing the role of plant disease in ecosystem processes and the challenge of scaling up from individual infect...},
author = {Garrett, K. A. and Dendy, S. P. and Frank, E. E. and Rouse, M. N. and Travers, S. E.},
doi = {10.1146/annurev.phyto.44.070505.143420},
issn = {0066-4286},
journal = {Annual Review of Phytopathology},
keywords = {climate variability,disease ecology,ecological genomics,epidemiology,global warming},
month = {sep},
number = {1},
pages = {489--509},
publisher = {Annual Reviews},
title = {{Climate Change Effects on Plant Disease: Genomes to Ecosystems}},
url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev.phyto.44.070505.143420},
volume = {44},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Gattuso2015,
abstract = {The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Gattuso, J.-P. and Magnan, A. and Bill{\'{e}}, R. and Cheung, W. W. L. and Howes, E. L. and Joos, F. and Allemand, D. and Bopp, L. and Cooley, S. R. and Eakin, C. M. and Hoegh-Guldberg, O. and Kelly, R. P. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Rogers, A. D. and Baxter, J. M. and Laffoley, D. and Osborn, D. and Rankovic, A. and Rochette, J. and Sumaila, U. R. and Treyer, S. and Turley, C.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aac4722},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {10.1126/science.aac4722},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jul},
number = {6243},
pages = {aac4722},
pmid = {26138982},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aac4722 http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aac4722},
volume = {349},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Gebrechorkos2019,
author = {Gebrechorkos, Solomon H and H{\"{u}}lsmann, Stephan and Bernhofer, Christian},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab055a},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {044031},
title = {{Regional climate projections for impact assessment studies in East Africa}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/14/i=4/a=044031?key=crossref.38c335bdc3e6e443396b071bf280fdbe},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Geertsema2006,
abstract = {At least thirty-eight, large, catastrophic landslides, each either larger than 0.5 M m3 or longer than 1 km, have occurred in northern British Columbia in the last three decades. The landslides include low-gradient flowslides in cohesive sediments, long-runout rock slides (rock avalanches), and complex rock slide-flows. The flowslides have occurred in a variety of sediments, including glaciolacustrine silt, clay-rich till, and clay-rich colluvium. The rock failures have happened in weak shale overlain by sandstone and volcanic rocks. The frequency of large landslides in northern British Columbia appears to be increasing, suggesting a link to climate change. {\textcopyright} 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
author = {Geertsema, Marten and Clague, John J. and Schwab, James W. and Evans, Stephen G.},
doi = {10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.06.028},
issn = {00137952},
journal = {Engineering Geology},
keywords = {Climate change,Large landslide,Northern British Columbia,Permafrost degradation},
month = {feb},
number = {1-3},
pages = {120--143},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{An overview of recent large catastrophic landslides in northern British Columbia, Canada}},
volume = {83},
year = {2006}
}
@article{GendronSt-Marseille2019,
abstract = {Climate change will undoubtedly impact air and soil temperature in the future. For agriculture, climate warming could be beneficial by opening new lands to profitable crops at higher latitudes. In Canada, soybean production has had a spectacular growth over the last five years with an increase of 27{\%} in the acreage devoted to its cultivation. However, the anticipated climatic changes, coupled with global trading intensification could also favor the introduction and establishment of invasive alien soybean pests. For example, the soybean cyst nematode (SCN) has recently been discovered in the province of Qu{\'{e}}bec, Canada and its presence raised several questions on its reproductive potential, spatial distribution and possible impacts on long term soybean cultivation. To investigate the consequences of climate warming on soybean and SCN development and distribution, and their interactions, two phenology models have been developed and used with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, associated with climate change scenarios. These pathways describe two possible future climates based on the level of greenhouse gases concentration in air. Using temperature optimum for soybean maturity group I, our results showed that soybean could be cultivated over all cropland of Qu{\'{e}}bec by the 2050 horizon (2041–2070). Based on phenology models, SCN can currently complete from one to three generations in the different regions of Qu{\'{e}}bec. In the future, the nematode could produce up to four or five generations in an optimistic (RCP 4.5) or pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenario, respectively. Climate warming will promote the expansion of soybean production to northern areas and expected conditions will be more favourable to SCN development. Accordingly, we should develop more soybean lines with an early maturity and containing other sources of resistance than PI88788 to reduce its reproduction capacity under a more favourable climate in the future.},
author = {{Gendron St-Marseille}, Anne-Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}rique and Bourgeois, Ga{\'{e}}tan and Brodeur, Jacques and Mimee, Benjamin},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.10.008},
issn = {01681923},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
keywords = {Glycine max,Heterodera glycines,Invasive alien species,Modelling,Soybean,Soybean cyst nematode},
month = {jan},
pages = {178--187},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Simulating the impacts of climate change on soybean cyst nematode and the distribution of soybean}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168192318303320},
volume = {264},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Georgeson2017,
abstract = {Information about weather and climate is vital for many areas of decision-making, particularly under conditions of increasing vulnerability and uncertainty related to climate change. We have quantified the global commercial supply of weather and climate information services. Although government data are sometimes freely available, the interpretation and analysis of those data, alongside additional data collection, are required to formulate responses to specific challenges in areas such as health, agriculture, and the built environment. Using transactional data, we analyzed annual spending by private and public organizations on commercial weather and climate information in more than 180 countries by industrial sector, region, per capita, and percentage of GDP (gross domestic product) and against the country's climate and extreme weather risk. There are major imbalances regarding access to these essential services between different countries based on region and development status. There is also no relationship between the level of climate and weather risks that a country faces and the level of per capita spending on commercial weather and climate information in that country. At the international level, action is being taken to improve access to information services. With a better understanding of the flows of commercial weather and climate information, as explored in this study, it will be possible to tackle these regional and development-related disparities and thus to increase resilience to climate and weather risks.},
author = {Georgeson, Lucien and Maslin, Mark and Poessinouw, Martyn},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1602632},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {e1602632},
title = {{Global disparity in the supply of commercial weather and climate information services}},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/ http://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1602632},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ghanbari2019,
author = {Ghanbari, Mahshid and Arabi, Mazdak and Obeysekera, Jayantha and Sweet, William},
doi = {10.1029/2018EF001089},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {Generalized Pareto Distribution,Mixture probability model,extreme value theory,flood threshold,nonstationary,sea level rise},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {162--177},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A Coherent Statistical Model for Coastal Flood Frequency Analysis Under Nonstationary Sea Level Conditions}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018EF001089},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Giannaros2021,
abstract = {Abstract High-resolution regional climate simulations were conducted for the past 30?years (1987?2016), focusing on the Euro-Mediterranean region. The numerical simulations were used for computing the Canadian Fire Weather Index, for deriving the climatology of fire weather in the study area and investigating the presence of long-term trends, with particular emphasis on extremes during the May to September period. Results suggest that the Euro-Mediterranean fire weather follows a zonal pattern, characterized by adverse conditions occurring most frequently in the southern parts. Air temperature and relative humidity are the key drivers of fire weather in the study area, with precipitation and wind exerting less influence. Based on the conducted spatial trend analysis, extreme fire weather conditions have become more prevalent in the Iberian Peninsula and eastern Balkans, whereas declining trends occur in the Southeast Mediterranean basin. For both cases, the trends in fire weather extremes appear to coincide with trends in the input meteorological variables. Overall, the results of this study provide a new insight on the recent climatology and trends of fire weather in the Euro-Mediterranean. Our dataset is publicly available on the Zenodo platform (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3713531).},
author = {Giannaros, Theodore M and Kotroni, Vassiliki and Lagouvardos, Konstantinos},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6701},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Euro-Mediterranean,climatology,extreme fire weather,fire weather index,trends},
month = {jan},
number = {S1},
pages = {E491--E508},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Climatology and trend analysis (1987–2016) of fire weather in the Euro‐Mediterranean}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6701 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6701},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@techreport{Gibbs2015,
abstract = {Vacuolar protein sorting 34 (VPS34) contributes to the regulation of the mammalian target of rapamycin complex 1/S6 kinase 1 pathway downstream of nutrient signaling. However, intracellular mechanisms leading to VPS34 activation remain unclear. Here, we report that Src directly phosphorylates VPS34, and that this phosphorylation activates VPS34 lipid kinase activity, leading to Src-Y527F-mediated cellular transformation. Silencing endogenous VPS34 specifically inhibits Src-Y527F-induced colony formation in soft agar, but not Ras-G12V-induced colony formation. We have identified two novel hVPS34 mutations, which either eliminate lipid kinase activity (kinase-dead mutant) or reduce tyrosine phosphorylation by Src-Y527F. When kinase-dead mutant of hVPS34 is stably expressed in Src-Y527F-transformed cells, transformation activities are blocked, indicating that the lipid kinase activity of hVPS34 is essential for Src-mediated cellular transformation. Furthermore, stable expression of this hVPS34 kinase-dead mutant causes an increased number of binucleate and multinucleate cells, suggesting that the kinase activity of hVPS34 is also required for cytokinesis. Moreover, when the hVPS34 mutant that has reduced tyrosine phosphorylation by Src is stably expressed in Src-Y527F-transformed cells, Src-Y527F-stimulated colony formation is also reduced. Data presented here provide important evidence that VPS34 lipid kinase activity could be positively regulated by Src-mediated tyrosine phosphorylation in mammalian cells. This finding highlights a previously unappreciated relationship between VPS34, a class III phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase, and Src non-receptor tyrosine kinase. Additionally, we find that the levels of VPS34 expression and tyrosine phosphorylation are correlated with the tumorigenic activity of human breast cancer cells, indicating that Src to VPS34 signaling warrants further investigation as a pathway contributing to the development and progression of human cancers.},
address = {Reston, VA, USA},
author = {Gibbs, Ann E. and Richmond, Bruce M.},
doi = {10.3133/ofr20151048.},
pages = {96},
publisher = {U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)},
series = {USGS Open-File Report 2015-1048},
title = {{National Assessment of Shoreline Change – Historical Shoreline Change Along the North Coast of Alaska, U.S.-Canadian Border to Icy Cape}},
url = {http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2015/1048/pdf/ofr2015-1048.pdf},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Gidhagen2020,
abstract = {The growing share of Europe's population living in cities makes urban climate change impact assessment and adaptation a critical issue. The urban environment is characterized by its sensitivity to small-scale meteorological, hydrological and environmental processes. These are generally not fully described in climate models, largely because of the models' insufficient spatial resolution. The Urban SIS climate service offers historical and future simulated data downscaled to 1 km × 1 km resolution over selected European metropolitan areas. The downscaled data are subsequently used as input to air quality and hydrological impact models, all made available to users as Essential Climate Variables and Sectoral Impact Indicators through a web portal. This paper presents the Urban SIS climate service and demonstrates its functionality in a case study in Stockholm city, Sweden. Good model performance was attained for intra-city temperature gradients and small-scale precipitation extremes. Less positive results were obtained for large-scale precipitation and hydrology, mainly due to an insufficient domain size in the meteorological and climate modelling, in turn related to the substantial computational requirements. An uncertainty classification approach was developed to aid the interpretation and user application of the data. We hope our lessons learnt will support future efforts in this direction.},
author = {Gidhagen, Lars and Olsson, Jonas and Amorim, Jorge H and Asker, Christian and Belusic, Danijel and Carvalho, Ana C and Engardt, Magnuz and Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa and K{\"{o}}rnich, Heiner and Lind, Petter and Lindstedt, David and Olsson, Esbj{\"{o}}rn and Rosberg, J{\"{o}}rgen and Segersson, David and Str{\"{o}}mb{\"{a}}ck, Lena},
doi = {10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100549},
issn = {2212-0955},
journal = {Urban Climate},
keywords = {Air quality,Cities,Climate adaptation,Climate impacts,Hydrology,Meteorology},
pages = {100549},
title = {{Towards climate services for European cities: Lessons learnt from the Copernicus project Urban SIS}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095518303444},
volume = {31},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Giersch2017,
author = {Giersch, J. Joseph and Hotaling, Scott and Kovach, Ryan P. and Jones, Leslie A. and Muhlfeld, Clint C.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13565},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Endangered Species Act,Lednia,Plecoptera,Zapada,alpine ecosystems,conservation biology,global change,macroinvertebrates,stoneflies},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {2577--2589},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Climate-induced glacier and snow loss imperils alpine stream insects}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13565},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gilly2011,
abstract = {Long-term declines in oxygen concentrations are evident throughout much of the ocean interior and are particularly acute in midwater oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). These regions are defined by extremely low oxygen concentrations ({\textless}20–45 $\mu$mol kg−1), cover wide expanses of the ocean, and are associated with productive oceanic and coastal regions. OMZs have expanded over the past 50 years, and this expansion is predicted to continue as the climate warms worldwide. Shoaling of the upper boundaries of the OMZs accompanies OMZ expansion, and decreased oxygen at shallower depths can affect all marine organisms through multiple direct and indirect mechanisms. Effects include altered microbial processes that produce and consume key nutrients and gases, changes in predator-prey dynamics, and shifts in the abundance and accessibility of commercially fished species. Although many species will be negatively affected by these effects, others may expand their range or exploit new niches. OMZ shoaling is thus likely to have major and far-reaching consequences.},
author = {Gilly, William F. and Beman, J. Michael and Litvin, Steven Y. and Robison, Bruce H.},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-120710-100849},
isbn = {1941-1405 (Print)
1941-0611 (Linking)},
issn = {1941-1405},
journal = {Annual Review of Marine Science},
keywords = {ecology,fisheries,hypoxia,mesopelagic,microbial,oceans},
number = {1},
pages = {393--420},
pmid = {22809177},
publisher = {Annual Reviews},
title = {{Oceanographic and Biological Effects of Shoaling of the Oxygen Minimum Zone}},
volume = {5},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Ginoux2012,
author = {Ginoux, Paul and Prospero, Joseph M and Gill, Thomas E and Hsu, N Christina and Zhao, Ming},
doi = {10.1029/2012RG000388},
issn = {87551209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {RG3005},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Global-scale attribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources and their emission rates based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol products}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012RG000388},
volume = {50},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Giorgi2014,
author = {Giorgi, Filippo and Coppola, Erika and Raffaele, Francesca and Diro, Gulilat Tefera and Fuentes-Franco, Ramon and Giuliani, Graziano and Mamgain, Ashu and Llopart, Marta Pereira and Mariotti, Laura and Torma, Csaba},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1117-0},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {39--51},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1117-0},
volume = {125},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Giorgi2018,
abstract = {Hydroclimatic extremes, such as very intense precipitation and drought, are expected to increase with global warming, with their cumulative effects potentially posing severe threats for human and natural systems. We introduce a new metric of potential cumulative stress due to hydroclimatic extremes, the Cumulative Hydroclimatic Stress index (CHS), expressed in “equivalent reference stress years (ERSY)” (i.e., the mean annual stress during a present day reference period). The CHS is calculated for wet and dry extremes in an ensemble of 21st century Global Climate Model projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 greenhouse gas scenarios. Under the high-end RCP8.5 scenario, by 2100, increases in wet and dry extremes add {\~{}}155 ERSY averaged over global land areas ({\~{}}125 for wet and {\~{}}30 for dry extremes), with wet hotspots ({\textgreater}250 added ERSY) throughout regions of Asia, Eastern Africa and the Americas, and dry hotspots ({\textgreater}100 added ERSY) throughout Central and South America, Europe, West Africa, and coastal Australia. Inclusion of population exposure in the stress index definition generates a maximum total (dry + wet) potential stress level exceeding 400 added ERSY over Africa, North America, and Australia, which are thus projected to be extremely vulnerable to increases in hydroclimatic extremes. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, which is close to the 2 °C global warming stabilization target set in the Paris agreement, the total hydroclimatic stress is considerably reduced.},
author = {Giorgi, Filippo and Coppola, Erika and Raffaele, Francesca},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-018-0028-6},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
keywords = {Environmental impact,Governance},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {18},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Threatening levels of cumulative stress due to hydroclimatic extremes in the 21st century}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0028-6},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Giorgi2009a,
abstract = {The Time Of Emergence (TOE) of 14 greenhouse gas (GHG) - forced precipitation change hotspots (PSPOTs) is identified from the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. The TOE is defined as the time in 21st century projections at which the magnitude of the ensemble mean precipitation change signal becomes greater than the uncertainty due to the inter-model spread and the internal model multi-decadal variability. Of the 14 PSPOTS identified, 6 have a TOE in the early decades of the 21st century (northern high latitudes, Mediterranean, and East Africa), 3 in the mid decades (East and South Asia, Caribbean) and 5 in the late decades or beyond (South Africa, Western United States, Amazon Basin, Southern Australia, Central America). The TOE is sensitive to the GHG emission scenario for some of the PSPOTS. The TOE has important implications for the predictability and detection of GHG-forced PSPOTS and for impact and adaptation studies.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037593},
author = {Giorgi, Filippo and Bi, Xunqiang},
doi = {10.1029/2009GL037593},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {global models,precipitation,regional climate change},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {L06709},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Time of emergence (TOE) of GHG-forced precipitation change hot-spots}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037593 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2009GL037593},
volume = {36},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Girardin2013,
abstract = {In this era of climate change, understanding past and predicting future fire activity are scientific challenges that are central to the development of sustainable forest management practices and policies. Such objectives, however, are difficult to achieve for several reasons. Uncertainties about future fire activity can be superimposed on the short time period covered by existing meteorological data and fire statistics, from which a historical range of variability can be determined. Regional fire activity is also tremendously variable over time, such that contemporary fire records cannot provide information on the full range of fire activity variability a given forest experienced and adapted to. This factor is increasingly important when it comes to determining the resilience of boreal forests to changes in climate and disturbance regimes. In this paper, we present a synthesis of past, present and future trends in seasonal fire danger and fire activity based on data gathered in eastern Canadian boreal forests over the last 20. years, and we provide a critical assessment of the ability to conduct sustainable forest management over the 21st century. The data synthesis provides compelling evidence of a synchronous pattern of decreasing fire-conducive climatic conditions and activity of large fire seasons over the last 2000. years in the eastern coniferous boreal forest. Model simulations suggest that the climate will become drier in upcoming decades, driving future fire activity close to the upper bound of the pre-industrial range of variability. The effects of increasing fire incidence cumulated with forest harvesting may thus pose a risk to forest resilience in the future. This ecological knowledge should help us to define forest management strategies and practices considering future fire activity changes forecasted under climate change. Development of alternative silvicultural interventions that would emulate secondary disturbances (e.g. wind, insects) rather than fire would be necessary to maintain pre-industrial forest characteristics (e.g. composition and age class distribution), and associated forest resilience. {\textcopyright} 2012.},
author = {Girardin, Martin P. and Ali, Adam A. and Carcaillet, Christopher and Gauthier, Sylvie and H{\'{e}}ly, Christelle and {Le Goff}, H{\'{e}}lo{\"{i}}se and Terrier, Aur{\'{e}}lie and Bergeron, Yves},
doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2012.07.005},
issn = {03781127},
journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
keywords = {Climatic change,Forest fires,Holocene,Paleoecology,Sedimentary charcoal,Tree rings},
month = {apr},
pages = {238--249},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Fire in managed forests of eastern Canada: Risks and options}},
volume = {294},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Girardin2009,
abstract = {The Fire Weather Index System has been in use across Canada for the past 30 years in the daily operations of fire management agencies. As part of this system, the Drought Code (DC) was developed to act as a daily index of water stored in the soil. A major obstacle to the completion of climate risk analyses on the DC is that lengthy series of daily temperature and precipitation are not available for large portions of the circumboreal forest. Here the authors present a methodological modification to the daily DC to allow its approximation using monthly data. This new Monthly Drought Code (MDC) still retains its ability to capture moisture trends in deep organic layers. On the basis of high-resolution temperature and precipitation data, an analysis of summer moisture availability across Canada over 1901-2002 is presented. The driest periods on record were from the 1920s to the early 1960s, with the driest years being 1955, 1958, and 1961. The wettest period was from the mid-1960s to the 1980s. For the century-long period, drying was statistically significant in northern Canada. Locations south of the Hudson Bay, in the eastern Maritimes, and in western Canada recorded a trend toward decreasing dryness. When analyzed over 1951-2002, trends could hardly be distinguished from the (multi) decadal variability. Annual values of a spatial average of all July MDC grid cells showed an excellent fit against fire statistics: 63{\%} of the variance in the Canada-wide annual area burned from 1959 to 1999 was explained by summer moisture availability.},
author = {Girardin, Martin P. and Wotton, B. Mike},
doi = {10.1175/2008JAMC1996.1},
issn = {15588424},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {517--533},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Summer moisture and wildfire risks across Canada}},
url = {http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/},
volume = {48},
year = {2009}
}
@misc{Giuliani2017,
abstract = {In November 2016, the Paris Agreement entered into force calling Parties to strengthen their cooperation for enhancing adaptation and narrowing the gap between climate science and policy. Moreover, climate change has been identified as a central challenge for sustainable development by the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Data provide the basis for a reliable scientific understanding and knowledge as well as the foundation for services that are required to take informed decisions. In consequence, there is an increasing need for translating the massive amount of climate data and information that already exists into customized tools, products and services to monitor the range of climate change impacts and their evolution. It is crucial that these data and information should be made available not in the way that they are collected, but in the way that they are being used by the largest audience possible. Considering that climate data is part of the broader Earth observation and geospatial data domain, the aim of this paper is to review the state-of-the-art geospatial technologies that can support the delivery of efficient and effective climate services, and enhancing the value chain of climate data in support of the objectives of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The major benefit of spatially-enabling climate services is that it brings interoperability along the entire climate data value chain. It facilitates storing, visualizing, accessing, processing/analyzing, and integrating climate data and information and enables users to create value-added products and services.},
author = {Giuliani, Gregory and Nativi, Stefano and Obregon, Andre and Beniston, Martin and Lehmann, Anthony},
booktitle = {Climate Services},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2017.08.003},
issn = {24058807},
keywords = {Climate services,Essential Climate Variables,GEO/GEOSS,GFCS,Interoperability,OGC standards},
month = {dec},
pages = {44--58},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Spatially enabling the Global Framework for Climate Services: Reviewing geospatial solutions to efficiently share and integrate climate data {\&} information}},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Giuntoli2015,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} Author(s) 2015. Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources.},
author = {Giuntoli, I. and Vidal, J.-P. and Prudhomme, C. and Hannah, D.M.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-6-267-2015},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {267--285},
title = {{Future hydrological extremes: The uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models}},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Gizaw2017,
abstract = {Various drought prone regions of sub-Saharan Africa (SSAF) have been affected by severe droughts in recent decades and centuries, which had caused catastrophic humanitarian crisis. In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index was used to analyse changes in drought characteristics of SSAF during 1971–2000 and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate projections of selected GCMs (Global Climate Models) for the 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) periods. The results show that most areas in South Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) will shift to a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s. However, some areas in Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are expected to be relatively wetter in the 2050 and 2080s whereas very little change is projected in the average drought severity of Central Africa (CA). The frequency of short (6–12 months) and long (above 12 months) drought events also increased on average by 5 {\%}. However, a 1–6 {\%} decrease in the average duration of long drought periods was projected during the 2050 and 2080s likely due to the increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in SSAF. An increase in the frequency of El Ni{\~{n}}o episodes under a warmer twentyfirst century climate is also expected to increase the drought prone regions of WA, SA and particularly GHA while CA still remains virtually unaffected. Overall, the results suggest that SSAF will experience a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s with an increase in drought prone areas in the four corners of the sub-continent.},
author = {Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum and Gan, Thian Yew},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3366-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {665--682},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Impact of climate change and El Ni{\~{n}}o episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3366-2},
volume = {49},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Glazer2020,
author = {Glazer, Russell H. and Torres-Alavez, Jos{\'{e}} Abraham and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo and Das, Sushant and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Sines, Taleena},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05439-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1595--1613},
title = {{Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05439-4 https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05439-4},
volume = {57},
year = {2021}
}
@incollection{Glenn2014,
address = {Hoboken, NJ, USA},
author = {Glenn, D. Michael and Kim, Soo-Hyung and Ramirez-Villegas, Julian and L{\"{a}}derach, Peter},
booktitle = {Horticultural Reviews Volume 41},
doi = {10.1002/9781118707418.ch02},
editor = {Janick, J.},
isbn = {9781118707418},
month = {may},
pages = {47--130},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Inc.},
title = {{Response of Perennial Horticultural Crops to Climate Change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/9781118707418.ch02},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Gobler2014,
abstract = {Low oxygen zones in coastal and open ocean ecosystems have expanded in recent decades, a trend that will accelerate with climatic warming. There is growing recognition that low oxygen regions of the ocean are also acidified, a condition that will intensify with rising levels of atmospheric CO2. Presently, however, the concurrent effects of low oxygen and acidification on marine organisms are largely unknown, as most prior studies of marine hypoxia have not considered pH levels. We experimentally assessed the consequences of hypoxic and acidified water for early life stage bivalves (bay scallops, Argopecten irradians, and hard clams, Mercenaria mercenaria), marine organisms of significant economic and ecological value and sensitive to climate change. In larval scallops, experimental and naturally-occurring acidification (pH, total scale = 7.4-7.6) reduced survivorship (by {\textgreater}50{\%}), low oxygen (30-50 µM) inhibited growth and metamorphosis (by {\textgreater}50{\%}), and the two stressors combined produced additively negative outcomes. In early life stage clams, however, hypoxic waters led to 30{\%} higher mortality, while acidified waters significantly reduced growth (by 60{\%}). Later stage clams were resistant to hypoxia or acidification separately but experienced significantly (40{\%}) reduced growth rates when exposed to both conditions simultaneously. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that the consequences of low oxygen and acidification for early life stage bivalves, and likely other marine organisms, are more severe than would be predicted by either individual stressor and thus must be considered together when assessing how ocean animals respond to these conditions both today and under future climate change scenarios.},
author = {Gobler, Christopher J. and DePasquale, Elizabeth L. and Griffith, Andrew W. and Baumann, Hannes},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0083648},
editor = {Dupont, Sam},
isbn = {1932-6203},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {e83648},
pmid = {24416169},
title = {{Hypoxia and Acidification Have Additive and Synergistic Negative Effects on the Growth, Survival, and Metamorphosis of Early Life Stage Bivalves}},
url = {https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083648},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Gobler2016,
abstract = {There is increasing recognition that low dissolved oxygen (DO) and low pH conditions co-occur in many coastal and open ocean environments. Within temperate ecosystems, these conditions not only develop seasonally as temperatures rise and metabolic rates accelerate, but can also display strong diurnal variability, especially in shallow systems where photosynthetic rates ameliorate hypoxia and acidification by day. Despite the widespread, global co-occurrence of low pH and low DO and the likelihood that these conditions may negatively impact marine life, very few studies have actually assessed the extent to which the combination of both stressors elicits additive, synergistic or antagonistic effects in marine organisms. We review the evidence from published factorial experiments that used static and/or fluctuating pH and DO levels to examine different traits (e.g. survival, growth, metabolism), life stages and species across a broad taxonomic spectrum. Additive negative effects of combined low pH and low DO appear to be most common; however, synergistic negative effects have also been observed. Neither the occurrence nor the strength of these synergistic impacts is currently predictable, and therefore, the true threat of concurrent acidification and hypoxia to marine food webs and fisheries is still not fully understood. Addressing this knowledge gap will require an expansion of multi-stressor approaches in experimental and field studies, and the development of a predictive framework. In consideration of marine policy, we note that DO criteria in coastal waters have been developed without consideration of concurrent pH levels. Given the persistence of concurrent low pH–low DO conditions in estuaries and the increased mortality experienced by fish and bivalves under concurrent acidification and hypoxia compared with hypoxia alone, we conclude that such DO criteria may leave coastal fisheries more vulnerable to population reductions than previously anticipated.},
author = {Gobler, Christopher J. and Baumann, Hannes},
doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2015.0976},
isbn = {1744-9561},
issn = {1744-9561},
journal = {Biology Letters},
keywords = {Eutrophication,Fisheries,Hypoxia,Ocean acidification},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {20150976},
pmid = {27146441},
title = {{Hypoxia and acidification in ocean ecosystems: coupled dynamics and effects on marine life}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsbl.2015.0976},
volume = {12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Gobler2017a,
abstract = {This study used high-resolution (daily, quarter-degree resolution) sea-surface temperature records to model trends in growth rates and bloom-season duration for two of the most toxic and widespread harmful algal bloom species indigenous to the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans. Alexandrium fundyense synthesizes saxitoxin and Dinophysis acuminata synthesizes okadaic acid, which cause the human health syndromes paralytic and diarrhetic shellfish poisoning, respectively. The model provided hindcasts of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events that were consistent with in situ observations from long-term monitoring programs during the same time period. This study provides evidence that increasing ocean temperatures have already facilitated the intensification of these, and likely other, HABs and thus contribute to an expanding human health threat.},
author = {Gobler, Christopher J. and Litaker, R. Wayne and Hattenrath-Lehmann, Theresa K. and Griffith, Andrew W. and Kang, Yoonja and Doherty, Owen M.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1619575114},
isbn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {19},
pages = {4975--4980},
pmid = {28439007},
title = {{Ocean warming since 1982 has expanded the niche of toxic algal blooms in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans}},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Godoi2018,
abstract = {Clusters of storm waves contribute disproportionately to coastal erosion hazards because the coastline has insufficient time to recover between events. Here, the change in occurrence of clustered storms and its association with atmospheric oscillation modes were investigated in New Zealand waters using 44 years (1958–2001) of wave hindcast data. First, long-term averages of cluster parameters (number of storms within the cluster, potential for coastal erosion, and cluster duration) were assessed. Then, the relationships between clustering and the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Zonal Wavenumber-3 Pattern (ZW3), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) were explored through correlation analysis over several timescales. Clusters were more frequently observed to the northeast of New Zealand and on the central eastern coast of the South Island. The most vulnerable regions to cluster-induced coastal erosion were southern New Zealand and the northwestern coast, which resulted from steady southwesterly swells, although clusters with the longest duration occurred on the east coast of the South Island. Trends suggest that clusters have incorporated more storms, have become more hazardous, and have increased in duration, particularly along the South Island coastline. Although these trends may be sensitive to the reanalysed wind fields used to force the wave hindcast, they reflect trends in the ENSO, PDO, and SAM. Stronger southwesterly winds during El Ni{\~{n}}o (negative ENSO) and El Ni{\~{n}}o-like conditions (positive IOD/PDO) generated more clustered storms mainly on the southwestern coast of New Zealand, whereas increases in clustering were observed on the north coast during La Ni{\~{n}}a and La Ni{\~{n}}a-like conditions (stronger northeasterly winds). Higher occurrence of clustering was also evident on the west coast during the strong atmospheric zonal flow associated with negative ZW3. Lastly, strengthened westerlies related to positive SAM led to increased clustering primarily to the south of New Zealand.},
author = {Godoi, Victor A. and Bryan, Karin R. and Gorman, Richard M.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5380},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {New Zealand,climate change,climate patterns,coastal hazard,storm grouping,storm wave clustering,wave hindcasting},
number = {December 2017},
pages = {e401--e417},
title = {{Storm wave clustering around New Zealand and its connection to climatic patterns}},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Goldie2017,
abstract = {OBJECTIVE To find appropriate regression model specifications for counts of the daily hospital admissions of a Sydney cohort and determine which human heat stress indices best improve the models' fit. METHODS We built parent models of eight daily counts of admission records using weather station observations, census population estimates and public holiday data. We added heat stress indices; models with lower Akaike Information Criterion scores were judged a better fit. RESULTS Five of the eight parent models demonstrated adequate fit. Daily maximum Simplified Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (sWBGT) consistently improved fit more than most other indices; temperature and heatwave indices also modelled some health outcomes well. Humidity and heat-humidity indices better fit counts of patients who died following admission. CONCLUSIONS Maximum sWBGT is an ideal measure of heat stress for these types of Sydney hospital admissions. Simple temperature indices are a good fallback where a narrower range of conditions is investigated. Implications for public health: This study confirms the importance of selecting appropriate heat stress indices for modelling. Epidemiologists projecting Sydney hospital admissions should use maximum sWBGT as a common measure of heat stress. Health organisations interested in short-range forecasting may prefer simple temperature indices.},
author = {Goldie, James and Alexander, Lisa and Lewis, Sophie C. and Sherwood, Steven},
doi = {10.1111/1753-6405.12692},
isbn = {13260200 (ISSN)},
issn = {13260200},
journal = {Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health},
keywords = {New South Wales,heatwave,humidity,morbidity,temperature},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {381--387},
pmid = {28712114},
title = {{Comparative evaluation of human heat stress indices on selected hospital admissions in Sydney, Australia}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/1753-6405.12692},
volume = {41},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Golding2017a,
abstract = {Engagement between providers and users is well acknowledged as one of the most fundamental activities in the provision, development and use of climate information for decision-making, or climate services. Yet there is little guidance in the literature on the most effective methods of engagement and demonstration of these methods. Here we present experiences of effective engagement between providers and users to understand the climate information requirements of decision makers in China; and to engage users more fully in the design, development, and delivery of climate services. We find value in the three methods of engagement explored here (passive engagement, interactive group activities, focused relationships), and share insights for when it may be most appropriate to use each method. We also highlight the challenges associated with each method, and the barriers and enablers to successful engagement drawn from these experiences. We further suggest how these conclusions have a much wider relevance and may be used to inform planning of engagement activities in other contexts.},
author = {Golding, Nicola and Hewitt, Chris and Zhang, Peiqun},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2017.11.002},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {dec},
pages = {72--76},
title = {{Effective engagement for climate services: Methods in practice in China}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880717300912},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Golding2017,
abstract = {The needs of decision makers in China are being used to develop climate science and climate services through the Climate Science for Services Partnership. Focusing on examples of work for the energy and urban sectors, this paper outlines the approach taken and gives case studies of climate service development. We find that there is great opportunity for climate service development within the existing China Framework for Climate Services, and for enhancing the science that underpins such services. We also find challenges unique to the socio-economic and cultural environment in China, which must be taken into account when developing climate services here, as well as challenges common to all climate service development.},
author = {Golding, Nicola and Hewitt, Chris and Zhang, Peiqun and Bett, Philip and Fang, Xiaoyi and Hu, Hengzhi and Nobert, Sebastien},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2017.03.004},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {jan},
pages = {39--45},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Improving user engagement and uptake of climate services in China}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880716300577},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}
@article{GOLDING201943,
abstract = {The Yangtze River Basin in China is subject to high inter- and intra-annual variability in its rainfall, leading to challenges in flood protection and for the high-value agricultural activity and large urban populations and infrastructure along its banks. As part of the Climate Science for Services Partnership in China, Chinese and UK scientists, along with key decision makers in this region, are working closely together to understand the needs for climate information, co-develop a seasonal rainfall forecast service aiming to help meet these needs, and evaluate the value or usefulness of this service in supporting decision making to manage risk in the lower Yangtze Basin. We find that there is a range of users reliant on such a service, and that the current service contributes strongly to decision-making for many users. Through close co-operation between providers and users of the service, we also gain a good understanding of the limitations of the current service and outline developments needed to enhance its utility.},
author = {Golding, Nicola and Hewitt, Chris and Zhang, Peiqun and Liu, Min and Zhang, Jun and Bett, Philip},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2019.01.002},
issn = {2212-0963},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
keywords = {Climate service,Co-development,Seasonal forecast,User engagement,Yangtze River},
pages = {43--49},
title = {{Co-development of a seasonal rainfall forecast service: Supporting flood risk management for the Yangtze River basin}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096318301517},
volume = {23},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gonzalez2018a,
abstract = {Forest fire activity has increased in recent years in central and south-central Chile. Drought conditions have been associated with the increase of large wildfires, area burned and longer fire seasons. This study examines the influence of drought on fire regimes and discusses landscape management opportunities to decrease fire hazard. Specifically, we investigate the effect of the 2010–2015 Megadrought (MD) compared to 1990–2009 period on fire activity (fire-season length, number of fires and burned area across months, fire sizes, regions and vegetation cover types, simultaneity, and duration of fires) in central and south-central Chile (32°–39° S), using contemporary fire statistics derived from the Chilean Forest Service. For large fire events ({\textgreater}200 ha) the average season length increased by 67 d (44{\%}), comparing 2010–2015 to 1990–2009. Earlier and later ignition dates resulted in extended fire seasons in MD years. During the MD, the number, area burned, simultaneity, and duration of large fires increased significantly compared to the control period, including the unprecedented occurrence of large fires during winter. The burned area in large fires increased in all vegetation types, during the MD compared to the control period, especially in the exotic plantation cover type. The regions that were most affected by fire (i.e., total area burned) during the MD were Maule, B{\'{i}}o-B{\'{i}}o, and Araucan{\'{i}}a (35–39° S) that concentrate {\textgreater}75{\%} of forest plantations in Chile. Although both maximum temperatures and precipitation are drivers of fire activity, a simple attribution analysis indicates that the sustained rainfall deficit during 2010–2015 was the most critical factor in the enhanced fire activity. Future climate change predictions indicate more recurrent, intense, and temporally extended droughts for central and south-central Chile. Under this scenario, land-use planning and fire and forest management strategies must promote a more diverse and less flammable landscape mosaic limiting high load, homogenous, and continuous exotic plantations.},
author = {Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Mauro E. and G{\'{o}}mez-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Susana and Lara, Antonio and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} and D{\'{i}}az-Hormaz{\'{a}}bal, Ignacio},
doi = {10.1002/ecs2.2300},
issn = {21508925},
journal = {Ecosphere},
keywords = {drought,fire regimes,fire-prone vegetation,fire-season length},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {e02300},
title = {{The 2010–2015 Megadrought and its influence on the fire regime in central and south-central Chile}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/ecs2.2300},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gonzalez-Aleman2019,
author = {Gonz{\'{a}}lez‐Alem{\'{a}}n, Juan J. and Pascale, Salvatore and Gutierrez‐Fernandez, Jes{\'{u}}s and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Gaertner, Miguel A. and Vecchi, Gabriel A.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081253},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Medicanes,climate change,convection,cutoff lows,global climate models,tropical cyclones},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1754--1764},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Potential Increase in Hazard From Mediterranean Hurricane Activity With Global Warming}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081253 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL081253},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gonzalez2018b,
author = {Gonzalez, Patrick and Wang, Fuyao and Notaro, Michael and Vimont, Daniel J and Williams, John W},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aade09},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {10},
pages = {104001},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=10/a=104001?key=crossref.4517a7dddf1a278ac256e838edfa5f0f},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{GOODESS2019100139,
abstract = {The development of successful climate services faces a number of challenges, including the identification of the target audience and their needs and requirements, and the effective communication of complex climate information, through engagement with a range of stakeholders. This paper describes how these challenges were tackled during the European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) project, part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), in order to deliver a pre-operational, proof-of-concept climate service for the European renewable energy sector. The process of iterative user engagement adopted in ECEM is described, from the initial presentation of the team's first vision for such a service to support external stakeholders, through to evaluation of the final interactive tool for visualisation, data download and supporting documentation (the C3S ECEM Demonstrator). The outcomes of this evaluation are outlined, together with a retrospective reflection on the engagement and development process. The extent to which co-production and co-design were achieved in practice is assessed. The paper also highlights the distance travelled from the start to end of ECEM in terms of building capacity, developing a community of practice, and raising the Technology Readiness Level. The relevance of ECEM for the European climate services market is briefly considered, including the development of downstream commercial services which build upon the public C3S services.},
author = {Goodess, C M and Troccoli, A and Acton, C and A{\~{n}}el, J A and Bett, P E and Brayshaw, D J and {De Felice}, M and Dorling, S R and Dubus, L and Penny, L and Percy, B and Ranchin, T and Thomas, C and Trolliet, M and Wald, L},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100139},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Climate services,Co-production,Renewable energy,Sectoral information system,Stakeholder engagement,User needs and requirements},
pages = {100139},
title = {{Advancing climate services for the European renewable energy sector through capacity building and user engagement}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880719300809},
volume = {16},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gopalakrishnan2019,
abstract = {Climatic and non-climatic stressors, such as temperature increases, rainfall fluctuations, population growth and migration, pollution, land-use changes and inadequate gender-specific strategies, are major challenges to coastal agricultural sustainability. In this paper, we discuss all pertinent issues related to the sustainability of coastal agriculture under climate change. It is evident that some climate-change-related impacts (e.g., temperature and rainfall) on agriculture are similarly applicable to both coastal and non-coastal settings, but there are other factors (e.g., inundation, seawater intrusion, soil salinity and tropical cyclones) that particularly impact coastal agricultural sustainability. Coastal agriculture is characterised by low-lying and saline-prone soils where spatial competition with urban growth is an ever-increasing problem. We highlight how coastal agricultural viability could be sustained through blending farmer perceptions, adaptation options, gender-specific participation and integrated coastal resource management into policy ratification. This paper provides important aspects of the coastal agricultural sustainability, and it can be an inspiration for further research and coastal agrarian planning.},
author = {Gopalakrishnan, Tharani and Hasan, Md and Haque, A. and Jayasinghe, Sadeeka and Kumar, Lalit},
doi = {10.3390/su11247200},
issn = {2071-1050},
journal = {Sustainability},
keywords = {Agricultural adaptations,Climate change impacts,Climatic stressors,Coastal urbanisation,Salinity intrusion,Sea-level rise},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {7200},
publisher = {MDPI AG},
title = {{Sustainability of Coastal Agriculture under Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/24/7200},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Gorris2018,
author = {Gorris, M. E. and Cat, L. A. and Zender, C. S. and Treseder, K. K. and Randerson, J. T.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GH000095},
issn = {24711403},
journal = {GeoHealth},
keywords = {climate,coccidioides,coccidioidomycosis,incidence/epidemiology,mycoses,surveillance/epidemiology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {6--24},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Coccidioidomycosis Dynamics in Relation to Climate in the Southwestern United States}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GH000095},
volume = {2},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gorter2014,
abstract = {The present and twenty-first century near-surface wind climate of Greenland is presented using output from the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2. The modelled wind variability and wind distribution compare favourably to observations from three automatic weather stations in the ablation zone of southwest Greenland. The Weibull shape parameter is used to classify the wind climate. High values ($\kappa$ {\textgreater} 4) are found in northern Greenland, indicative of uniform winds and a dominant katabatic forcing, while lower values ($\kappa$ {\textless} 3) are found over the ocean and southern Greenland, where the synoptic forcing dominates. Very high values of the shape parameter are found over concave topography where confluence strengthens the katabatic circulation, while very low values are found in a narrow band along the coast due to barrier winds. To simulate the future (2081-2098) wind climate RACMO2 was forced with the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model using a scenario of mid-range radiative forcing of +4.5 W m-2 by 2100. For the future simulated climate, the near-surface potential temperature deficit reduces in all seasons in regions where the surface temperature is below the freezing point, indicating a reduction in strength of the near-surface temperature inversion layer. This leads to a wind speed reduction over the central ice sheet where katabatic forcing dominates, and a wind speed increase over steep coastal topography due to counteracting effects of thermal and katabatic forcing. Thermally forced winds over the seasonally sea ice covered region of the Greenland Sea are reduced by up to 2.5 m s-1. {\textcopyright} 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.},
author = {Gorter, W. and van Angelen, J. H. and Lenaerts, J. T.M. and van den Broeke, M. R.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1861-2},
issn = {09307575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Greenland,Katabatic,RACMO2/GR,Weibull,Wind},
month = {mar},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1595--1611},
title = {{Present and future near-surface wind climate of Greenland from high resolution regional climate modelling}},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Gosling2016,
author = {Gosling, Simon N. and Arnell, Nigel W.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {371--385},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x},
volume = {134},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Goudie2014,
author = {Goudie, Andrew S.},
doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2013.10.011},
issn = {01604120},
journal = {Environment International},
month = {feb},
pages = {101--113},
title = {{Desert dust and human health disorders}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0160412013002262},
volume = {63},
year = {2014}
}
@incollection{Gould2018,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Gould, William A. and {D{\'{i}}az (co-leads)}, Ernesto L. and {\'{A}}lvarez-Berr{\'{i}}os, Nora L. and Aponte-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Felix and Archibald, Wayne and Bowden, Jared Heath and Carrubba, Lisamarie and Crespo, Wanda and Fain, Stephen Joshua and Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Grizelle and Goulbourne, Annmarie and Harmsen, Eric and Holupchinski, Eva and Khalyani, Azad Henareh and Kossin, James and Leinberger, Amanda J. and Marrero-Santiago, Vanessa I. and Mart{\'{i}}nez-S{\'{a}}nchez, Odalys and McGinley, Kathleen and M{\'{e}}ndez-L{\'{a}}zaro, Pablo and Morell, Julio and Oyola, Melissa Mel{\'{e}}ndez and Par{\'{e}}s-Ramos, Isabel K. and Pulwarty, Roger and Sweet, William V. and Terando, Adam and Torres-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, S.},
booktitle = {Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II},
doi = {10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH20},
editor = {Reidmiller, D.R. and Avery, C.W. and Easterling, D.R. and Kunkel, K.E. and Lewis, K.L.M. and Maycock, T.K. and Stewart, B.C.},
pages = {809--871},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{U.S. Caribbean}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gourdji2013,
abstract = {Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage (Tcrit), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence (r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and Tcrit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for Tcrit. Increasing Tcrit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15{\%}) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over Tcrit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over Tcrit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11{\%} respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over Tcrit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8{\%} in the 2000s to 27{\%} by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44{\%} over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a global basis, this would have little impact for the other crops. Therefore, regardless of the impact of other global change factors (such as increasing atmospheric CO2), reproductive extreme heat exposure will pose risks for global crop production without adaptive measures such as changes in sowing dates, crop and variety switching, expansion of irrigation, and agricultural expansion into cooler areas.},
author = {Gourdji, Sharon M and Sibley, Adam M and Lobell, David B},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024041},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {024041},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/8/i=2/a=024041?key=crossref.71d4bd7d0045166be569277634403f63},
volume = {8},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Gowda2018,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Gowda, Prasanna H. and Steiner, Jean and Olson, Carolyn and Boggess, Mark and Farrigan, Tracey and Grusak, Michael A.},
booktitle = {Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II},
doi = {10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH10},
editor = {Reidmiller, D.R. and Avery, C.W. and Easterling, D.R. and Kunkel, K.E. and Lewis, K.L.M. and Maycock, T.K. and Stewart, B.C.},
organization = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
pages = {391--437},
title = {{Agriculture and Rural Communities}},
url = {https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/10/},
year = {2018}
}
@article{GraffZivin2014,
author = {{Graff Zivin}, Joshua and Neidell, Matthew},
doi = {10.1086/671766},
issn = {0734-306X},
journal = {Journal of Labor Economics},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--26},
title = {{Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/671766},
volume = {32},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Graham2015a,
abstract = {Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover1. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change2. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of {\textgreater}90{\%} live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.},
author = {Graham, Nicholas A. J. and Jennings, Simon and MacNeil, M. Aaron and Mouillot, David and Wilson, Shaun K.},
doi = {10.1038/nature14140},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {feb},
number = {7537},
pages = {94--97},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14140},
volume = {518},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Graham2017,
author = {Graham, Robert M. and Cohen, Lana and Petty, Alek A. and Boisvert, Linette N. and Rinke, Annette and Hudson, Stephen R. and Nicolaus, Marcel and Granskog, Mats A.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073395},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {6974--6983},
title = {{Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL073395},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Grahn2017,
abstract = {Floods are a large problem around the world but the understanding of flood risks is hampered by a lack of data and knowledge about flood losses at different scales. The objective of this study was two-fold 1) to assess available temporally and spatially distributed data of rain events and flood damages during those events, regarding the usefulness of these data to quantify precipitation-related hazards and consequences, and 2) to assess the potential for deriving reliable damage functions based on the information compiled under objective 1. The study examined 2140 individual observations of insurance payouts for residential buildings caused by 49 different rainfall events in Sweden. Radar data were used to extract daily precipitation amounts and to capture the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfalls. This study demonstrates that including the duration of a rainfall, as opposed to only the aggregated amount of daily precipitation, is highly important in estimating the extent of damage. Furthermore, higher rainfall intensities increased the number of damaged properties but had less influence on the mean damage cost per property. In order to draw conclusions from damages at the micro level, both availability and detail level of data must be improved.},
author = {Grahn, Tonje and Nyberg, Lars},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.01.016},
issn = {22124209},
journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
keywords = {Data availability,Flood damage,Flood risk assessment,Insured flood losses,Pluvial flood damage},
month = {mar},
pages = {367--375},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Assessment of pluvial flood exposure and vulnerability of residential areas}},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
@techreport{Gray2005,
address = {New Zealand},
author = {Gray, W. and Ibbitt, R. and Turner, R. and Duncan, M. and Hollis, M.},
pages = {40},
publisher = {New Zealand Climate Change Office, Ministry for the Environment},
title = {{A Methodology to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Flood Risk in New Zealand}},
url = {https://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/publications/climate/impact-climate-change-flood-risk-jul05/impact-climate-change-flood-risk-jul05.pdf},
year = {2005}
}
@incollection{GreenanB.J.W.JamesT.S.LoderJ.W.2019,
address = {Ottawa, ON, Canada},
author = {Greenan, B.J.W. and James, T.S. and Loder, J.W. and Pepin, P. and Azetsu-Scott, K. and Ianson, D. and Hamme, R.C. and Gilbert, D. and Tremblay, J-E. and Wang, X.L. and Perrie, W.},
booktitle = {Canada's Changing Climate Report},
editor = {Lemmen and Bush},
keywords = {Canada,Climate change,freshwater,global warming,ice,oceans,permafrost,precipitation,snow,temperature},
pages = {343--423},
publisher = {Government of Canada},
title = {{Changes in Oceans Surrounding Canada}},
url = {https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/Climate-change/pdf/CCCR-Chapter7-ChangesInOceansSurroundingCanada.pdf},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gregow2016,
abstract = {Results of a worldwide online survey for reanalysis users provide valuable insight for removing obstacles that hinder the use of reanalyzes in climate services. There are increasing efforts to improve the delivery of climate services at national, regional, and global levels. These efforts include Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The aim of the GFCS, led by WMO, is to strengthen the provision and use of climate predictions, products, and information worldwide, and the vision of the C3S is to provide an authoritative source of quality-assured climate information for Europe and globally.},
author = {Gregow, H. and Jylh{\"{a}}, K. and M{\"{a}}kel{\"{a}}, H. M. and Aalto, J. and Manninen, T. and Karlsson, P. and Kaiser-Weiss, A. K. and Kaspapar, F. and Poli, P. and Tan, D. G.H. and Obregon, A. and Su, Z.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00271.1},
issn = {00030007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {1461--1474},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Worldwide survey of awareness and needs concerning reanalyses and respondents views on climate services}},
volume = {97},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Griffiths2017,
abstract = {Benthic–pelagic coupling is manifested as the exchange of energy, mass, or nutrients between benthic and pelagic habitats. It plays a prominent role in aquatic ecosystems, and it is crucial to functions from nutrient cycling to energy transfer in food webs. Coastal and estuarine ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures; however, there are large gaps in our understanding of the responses of inorganic nutrient and organic matter fluxes between benthic habitats and the water column. We illustrate the varied nature of physical and biological benthic–pelagic coupling processes and their potential sensitivity to three anthropogenic pressures – climate change, nutrient loading, and fishing – using the Baltic Sea as a case study and summarize current knowledge on the exchange of inorganic nutrients and organic material between habitats. Traditionally measured benthic–pelagic coupling processes (e.g., nutrient exchange and sedimentation of organic material) are to some extent quantifiable, but the magnitude and variability of biological processes are rarely assessed, preventing quantitative comparisons. Changing oxygen conditions will continue to have widespread effects on the processes that govern inorganic and organic matter exchange among habitats while climate change and nutrient load reductions may have large effects on organic matter sedimentation. Many biological processes (predation, bioturbation) are expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic drivers, but the outcomes for ecosystem function are largely unknown. We emphasize how improved empirical and experimental understanding of benthic–pelagic coupling processes and their variability are necessary to inform models that can quantify the feedbacks among processes and ecosystem responses to a changing world. Benthic–pelagic coupling is prominent in aquatic ecosystems, but there are large gaps in our understanding of how inorganic nutrient and organic matter fluxes between benthic habitats and the water column respond to anthropogenic pressures. We use the Baltic Sea to illustrate the varied nature of physical and biological benthic–pelagic coupling processes and their potential sensitivity to climate change, nutrient loading, and fishing. Changing oxygen conditions will continue to have widespread effects on the processes that govern inorganic and organic matter exchange among habitats while climate change and nutrient load reductions may have large effects on organic matter sedimentation. We provide examples of how biological processes are sensitive to anthropogenic drivers, but the outcomes for ecosystem function are largely unknown. We emphasize how improved empirical and experimental understanding of benthic–pelagic coupling processes is necessary to inform models that can quantify the feedbacks among processes and ecosystem responses to a changing world.},
author = {Griffiths, Jennifer R. and Kadin, Martina and Nascimento, Francisco J. A. and Tamelander, Tobias and T{\"{o}}rnroos, Anna and Bonaglia, Stefano and Bonsdorff, Erik and Br{\"{u}}chert, Volker and G{\aa}rdmark, Anna and J{\"{a}}rnstr{\"{o}}m, Marie and Kotta, Jonne and Lindegren, Martin and Nordstr{\"{o}}m, Marie C. and Norkko, Alf and Olsson, Jens and Weigel, Benjamin and {\v{Z}}ydelis, Ramunas and Blenckner, Thorsten and Niiranen, Susa and Winder, Monika},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13642},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {benthic,climate change,ecosystem dynamics,ecosystem function,fishing,nutrient loading,pelagic},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {2179--2196},
pmid = {28132408},
title = {{The importance of benthic–pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13642},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Grineski2015,
author = {Grineski, Sara E. and Collins, Timothy W. and McDonald, Yolanda J. and Aldouri, Raed and Aboargob, Faraj and Eldeb, Abdelatif and {Romo Aguilar}, Mar{\'{i}}a de Lourdes and Vel{\'{a}}zquez-Angulo, Gilberto},
doi = {10.1080/13549839.2013.839644},
issn = {1354-9839},
journal = {Local Environment},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {180--201},
title = {{Double exposure and the climate gap: changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Ju{\'{a}}rez, Mexico}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13549839.2013.839644},
volume = {20},
year = {2015}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00107.1,
abstract = {AbstractA climatology of tornadoes (over land and water) is presented, based on the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD), which contains reports of 9529 tornadoes. With the exception of a few small countries, tornadoes have been reported from all regions of Europe. The highest density of tornado reports is in western and central Europe. ESWD tornado reports increased strongly from 1995 to 2006 as a result of increased data collection efforts, followed by a decrease that likely has a meteorological nature. There is strong underreporting in the Mediterranean region and eastern Europe. The daily cycle of tornadoes over land (sea) peaks between 1500 and 1600 (0900 and 1000) local time. The Mediterranean annual maximum is in autumn and winter, while regions farther north have a maximum in summer. In total, 822 tornado fatalities have been recorded in the ESWD, which include 10 tornadoes with more than 20 fatalities. The average annual number of tornado fatalities in Europe is estimated to be between 10 and 15. The F2 and F3 tornadoes are responsible for the majority of the fatalities.},
author = {Groenemeijer, Pieter and K{\"{u}}hne, Thilo},
doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-14-00107.1},
issn = {0027-0644},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {4775--4790},
title = {{A Climatology of Tornadoes in Europe: Results from the European Severe Weather Database}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00107.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00107.1},
volume = {142},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Groisman2016,
abstract = {Freezing rain and freezing drizzle events represent a critical feature ofmanyregions of the world. Even at low intensities, these events often result in natural hazards that cause damage to housing, communication lines, and other man-made infrastructure. These events usually occur near the 0 °C isotherm. In a changing climate, this isotherm will not disappear, but its position in space and time will likely change as will the geography of freezing precipitation.Alarger influx of water vapor into the continents from the oceansmayalso increase the amount and frequency of freezing precipitation events. This paper assesses our current understanding of recent changes in freezing precipitation for the United States, Canada, Norway, and Russia. The research is part of a largerGEWEXCross-Cut Project addressing ‘cold/shoulder season precipitation near 0 °C'. Using an archive of 874 long-term time series (40 years of data) of synoptic observations for these four countries, we document the climatology of daily freezing rain and freezing drizzle occurrences as well as trends therein. The regions with the highest frequency of freezing rains (from 3 to 8 days per year) reside in the northeastern quadrant of the conterminous United States and adjacent areas of southeastern Canada south of 50 °N and over the south and southwest parts of the Great East European Plain. The frequency of freezing drizzle exceeds the frequency of freezing rain occurrence in all areas. During the past decade, the frequency of freezing rain events somewhat decreased over the southeastern US. In North America north of the Arctic Circle, it increased by about 1 day yr−1. Over Norway, freezing rain occurrences increased substantially, especially in the Norwegian Arctic. In European Russia and western Siberia, the frequency of freezing rain somewhat increased (except the southernmost steppe regions and the Arctic regions) while freezing drizzle frequency decreased over entire Russia.},
author = {Groisman, Pavel Ya and Bulygina, Olga N and Yin, Xungang and Vose, Russell S and Gulev, Sergey K and Hanssen-Bauer, Inger and F{\o}rland, Eirik},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045007},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {North America,climate change,freezing precipitation,northern Eurasia},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {045007},
pmid = {24684078},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Recent changes in the frequency of freezing precipitation in North America and Northern Eurasia}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=4/a=045007?key=crossref.c04b5806565fbb2458e0a3affb92beb3},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Grotjahn,
author = {Grotjahn, R.},
booktitle = {Extreme Events and Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach},
editor = {Castillo, F. and Wehner, M. and Stone, D},
isbn = {9781119413622},
pages = {23--48},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Inc.},
title = {{Weather extremes that impact various agricultural commodities}},
url = {https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Extreme+Events+and+Climate+Change{\%}3A+A+Multidisciplinary+Approach-p-9781119413622},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Grotjahn2018,
abstract = {Warming is a major climate change concern, but the impact of high maximum temperatures depends upon the air's moisture content. Trends in maximum summertime temperature, moisture, and heat index are tracked over three time periods: 1900–2011, 1950–2011, and 1979–2011; these trends differ notably from annual temperature trends. Trends are emphasized from two CRU datasets (CRUTS3.25 and CRUTS4.01) and two reanalyses (ERA-20C and 20CRv2). Maximum temperature trends tend towards warming that is stronger over the Great Lakes, the interior western and the northeastern contiguous United States. A warming hole in the Midwest generally decreases in size and magnitude when heat stress trends are calculated because the region has increasing moisture. CRU and nearly all reanalyses find cooling in the northern high plains that is not found in NOAA Climate Division trends. These NOAA trends are captured better by CRUTS401. Moistening in the northeast amplifies the heat stress there. Elsewhere the moisture trends are less clear. Drying over northern Texas (after 1996) in CRUTS401 translates into decreasing heat stress there (less so in CRUTS325). Though other reanalyses are not intended for long-term trends, MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim match observed trends better than other reanalyses.},
author = {Grotjahn, Richard and Huynh, Jonathan},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-29286-w},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {11146},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Contiguous US summer maximum temperature and heat stress trends in CRU and NOAA Climate Division data plus comparisons to reanalyses}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-29286-w},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gu2020a,
abstract = {Changes in peak magnitude, volume, frequency and duration of floods obtained from a peak-over-threshold sampling in 780 unregulated catchments show significant differences between northern and southern Australia over 1975–2012. Increases of the flood properties are mainly located in northern Australia, while decreases are mostly in southern Australia. These changes could be dominated by inter-annual and/or decadal variability of floods. The multidimensional behaviors of flood change across Australia can be described by three distinct groups (i.e. no changes, increases and decreases in all flood properties), showing strong geographic cohesion. The geographical consistency between the changing patterns of flood properties and spatial patterns of vapor transport anomalies during the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) positive phase could partly explain the geographic cohesion of flood changes. In a warmer future, the observed decreases in floods in southern Australia are projected to continue with high model agreement, while only magnitude and volume of floods in northern Australia are projected to increase but with high uncertainties. The diametric changes in flood magnitude between northern and southern Australia are projected to be more evident in extreme (i.e. 50-year) floods than small (i.e. 5- and 20-year) floods.},
author = {Gu, Xihui and Zhang, Qiang and Li, Jianfeng and Liu, Jianyu and Xu, Chong Yu and Sun, Peng},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124703},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Flood frequency,Flood magnitude,Flood prediction,Flood volume,Flooding behaviors},
month = {may},
pages = {124703},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{The changing nature and projection of floods across Australia}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169420301633},
volume = {584},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Gualdi2013,
abstract = {In this chapter we show results from an innovative multi-model system used to produce climate simulations with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. The models (hereafter simply referred to as the “CIRCE models”) are a set of five coupled climate models composed by a high-resolution Mediterranean Sea coupled with a relatively high-resolution atmospheric component and a global ocean, which allow, for the first time, to explore and assess the role of the Mediterranean Sea and its complex, small-scale dynamics in the climate of the region. In particular, they make it possible to investigate the influence that local air-sea feedbacks might exert on the mechanisms responsible for climate variability and change in the European continent, Middle East and Northern Africa. In many regards, they represent a new and innovative approach to the problem of regionalization of climate projections in the Mediterranean region. The CIRCE models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, with initial conditions obtained from a long spin-up run of the coupled systems. The simulations have been performed using observed radiative forcing (solar constant, greenhouse gases concentration and aerosol distribution) during the first half of the simulation period and the IPCC SRES A1B scenario during the second half (2001–2050). The projections indicate that remarkable changes in the Mediterranean region climate might occur already in the next few decades. A substantial warming (about 1.5°C in winter and almost 2°C in summer) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5{\%}) might affect the region in the 2021–2050 period compared to the reference period (1961–1990), in an A1B emission scenario. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss decreases, leading to a weaker cooling of the Mediterranean Sea by the atmosphere, whereas the water budget appears to increase, leading the basin to loose more water through its surface than in the past. The climate change projections obtained from the CIRCE models are overall consistent with the findings obtained in previous scenario simulations, such as PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and CMIP3. This agreement suggests that the results obtained from the climate projections are robust to substantial changes in the configuration of the models used to make the simulations. Finally, the CIRCE models produce a 2021–2050 mean steric sea-level rise that ranges between +6.6 cm and +11.6 cm, with respect to the period of reference. Within the CIRCE project the results obtained from these models have been used to investigate the climate of the Mediterranean region and its possible response to radiative forcing. Furthermore, the data have been made available for climate change impact studies that are included in the Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean that has been prepared in the context of the CIRCE project.},
address = {Dordrecht, The Netherlands},
author = {Gualdi, Silvio and Somot, Samuel and May, Wilhelm and Castellari, Sergio and D{\'{e}}qu{\'{e}}, Michel and Adani, Mario and Artale, Vincenzo and Bellucci, Alessio and Breitgand, Joseph S. and Carillo, Adriana and Cornes, Richard and Dell'Aquila, Alessandro and Dubois, Clotilde and Efthymiadis, Dimitrios and Elizalde, Alberto and Gimeno, Luis and Goodess, Clare M. and Harzallah, Ali and Krichak, Simon O. and Kuglitsch, Franz G. and Leckebusch, Gregor C. and L'H{\'{e}}v{\'{e}}der, Blandine and Li, Laurent and Lionello, Piero and Luterbacher, J{\"{u}}rg and Mariotti, Annarita and Navarra, Antonio and Nieto, Raquel and Nissen, Katrin M. and Oddo, Paolo and Ruti, Paolo and Sanna, Antonella and Sannino, Gianmaria and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Sevault, Florence and Struglia, Maria Vittoria and Toreti, Andrea and Ulbrich, Uwe and Xoplaki, Elena},
booktitle = {Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean: Volume 1: Air, Sea and Precipitation and Water},
doi = {10.1007/978-94-007-5781-3_3},
editor = {Navarra, A and Tubiana, L},
isbn = {978-94-007-5781-3},
pages = {53--118},
publisher = {Springer},
series = {Advances in Global Change Research vol. 50},
title = {{Future Climate Projections}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-94-007-5781-3{\_}3},
volume = {50},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Guan2015,
author = {Guan, Qingyu and Yang, Jing and Zhao, Shilei and Pan, Baotian and Liu, Chenglin and Zhang, Di and Wu, Tao},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2321-3},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {903--913},
title = {{Climatological analysis of dust storms in the area surrounding the Tengger Desert during 1960–2007}},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Guan2017,
abstract = {Airborne dust derived from desertification in northern China can be transported to East Asia and other regions, impairing human health and affecting the global climate. This study of northern China dust provides an understanding of the mechanism of dust generation and transportation. The authors used dust storm and climatological data from 129 sites and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets in northern China to analyze spatiotemporal characteristics and determine the main factors controlling dust storms occurring during 1960–2007. Dust storm–prone areas are consistent with the spatial distribution of northern China deserts where the average wind speed (AWS) is more than 2 m s−1, the mean annual temperature (MAT) ranges from 5° to 10°C, and the mean annual precipitation (MAP) is less than 450 mm. Dust storms commonly occur on spring afternoons in a 3- to 6-h pattern. The three predominant factors that can affect DSF are the maximum wind speed, AWS, and MAT. During 1960–2007, dust storm frequency (DSF) in most regions of northern China fluctuated but had a decreasing trend; this was mainly caused by a gradual reduction in wind speed. The effect of temperature on DSF is complex, as positive and negative correlations exist simultaneously. Temperatures can affect source material (dust, sand, etc.), cyclone activity, and vegetation growth status, which influence the generation of dust storms. NDVI and precipitation are negatively correlated with DSF, but the effect is weak. Vegetation can protect the topsoil environment and prevent dust storm creation but is affected by the primary decisive influence of precipitation.},
author = {Guan, Qingyu; and Sun, Xiazhong; and Yang, Jing; and Pan, Baotian; and Zhao, Shilei; and Wang, Lei},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0795.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6683--6700},
title = {{Dust Storms in Northern China: Long-Term Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Climate Controls}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0795.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gudmestad2018,
author = {Gudmestad, Ove T.},
doi = {10.2495/EI-V1-N4-411-419},
issn = {2398-2640},
journal = {International Journal of Environmental Impacts: Management, Mitigation and Recovery},
month = {jan},
number = {4},
pages = {411--419},
title = {{The changing climate and the arctic coastal settlements}},
url = {http://www.witpress.com/doi/journals/EI-V1-N4-411-419},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gudmundsson2017,
abstract = {Although there is overwhelming evidence showing that human emissions are affecting a wide range of atmospheric variables, it is not clear whether anthropogenic climate change is detectable in continental-scale freshwater resources. Owing to the complexity of terrestrial hydro-systems there is to date only limited evidence suggesting that climate change has altered river discharge in specific regions. Here we show that it is likely that anthropogenic emissions have left a detectable fingerprint in renewable freshwater resources in Europe. We use the detection and attribution approach to compare river-flow observations with state-of-the-art climate model simulations. The analysis shows that the previously observed amplification of the south (dry)-north (wet) contrast in pan-European river flow is captured by climate models only if human emissions are accounted for, although the models significantly underestimate the response. A regional analysis highlights that a strong and significant decrease is observed in the Mediterranean, generally along with a weak increase in northern Europe, whereas there is little change in transitional central Europe. As river and streamflow are indicators for renewable freshwater resources, the results highlight the necessity of raising awareness on climate change projections that indicate increasing water scarcity in southern Europe.},
author = {Gudmundsson, Lukas and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Zhang, Xuebin},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3416},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Attribution,Climate,Hydrology,change impacts},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {813--816},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Anthropogenic climate change detected in European renewable freshwater resources}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3416},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Guerreiro2018,
abstract = {Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate risks due to their agglomeration of people, buildings and infrastructure. Differences in methodology, hazards considered, and climate models used limit the utility and comparability of climate studies on individual cities. Here we assess, for the first time, future changes in flood, heat-waves (HW), and drought impacts for all 571 European cities in the Urban Audit database using a consistent approach. To capture the full range of uncertainties in natural variability and climate models, we use all climate model runs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the RCP8.5 emissions scenario to calculate Low, Medium and High Impact scenarios, which correspond to the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of each hazard for each city. We find that HW days increase across all cities, but especially in southern Europe, whilst the greatest HW temperature increases are expected in central European cities. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions intensify in southern European cities while river flooding worsens in northern European cities. However, the high impact scenario projects that most European cities will see increases in both drought and river flood risks. Over 100 cities are particularly vulnerable to two or more climate impacts. Moreover, the magnitude of impacts exceeds those previously reported highlighting the substantial challenge cities face to manage future climate risks.},
author = {Guerreiro, Selma B. and Dawson, Richard J. and Kilsby, Chris and Lewis, Elizabeth and Ford, Alistair},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaaad3},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {cities,climate change,droughts,europe,floods,heat-waves,urban},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {034009},
title = {{Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=3/a=034009?key=crossref.a52779232bf849a54582b65970b19a5a},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Guerreiro2017,
abstract = {Pluvial flooding is caused by localized intense rainfall and the flood models used to assess it are normally applied on a city (or part of a city) scale using local rainfall records and a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). Here, we attempt to model pluvial flooding on a continental scale and calculate the percentage of area flooded for all European cities for a 10-year return period for hourly rainfall (RP10). Difficulties in obtaining hourly rainfall records compromise the estimation of each city RP10 and the Europe-wide DEM spatial resolution is low relative to those typically used for individual case-studies. Nevertheless, the modelling capabilities and necessary computing power make this type of continental study now possible. This is a first attempt at continental city flooding modelling and our methodology was designed so that our results can easily be updated as better/more data becomes available. The results for each city depend on the interplay of rainfall intensity, the elevation map of the city and the flow paths that are created. In general, cities with lower percentage of city flooded are in the north and west coastal areas of Europe, while the higher percentages are seen in continental and Mediterranean areas.},
author = {Guerreiro, Selma B and Glenis, Vassilis and Dawson, Richard J and Kilsby, Chris},
doi = {10.3390/w9040296},
isbn = {2073-4441},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {City flooding,Europe,Urban flooding,pluvial flooding},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {296},
title = {{Pluvial Flooding in European Cities – A Continental Approach to Urban Flood Modelling}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/4/296},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Guo2018,
author = {Guo, Junhong and Huang, Guohe and Wang, Xiuquan and Li, Yongping and Lin, Qianguo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3660-7},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1045--1066},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3660-7},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2015JD024108,
abstract = {Abstract The considerable impact of permafrost degradation on hydrology and water resources, ecosystems, human engineering facilities, and climate change requires us to carry out more in-depth studies, at finer spatial scales, to investigate the issue. In this study, regional differences of the future permafrost changes are explored with respect to the regions (high altitude and high latitude, and in four countries) based on the surface frost index (SFI) model and multimodel and multiscenario data from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Results show the following: (1) Compared with seven other sets of driving data, Climatic Research Unit air temperature combined with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis snow data (CRU{\_}CFSR) yield a permafrost extent with the least absolute area bias and was thus used in the simulation. The SFI model, driven by CRU{\_}CFSR data climatology plus multimodel mean anomalies, produces a present-day (1986–2005) permafrost area of 15.45 × 106 km2 decade−1, which compares reasonably with observations of 15.24 × 106 km2 decade−1. (2) The high-altitude (Tibetan Plateau) permafrost area shows a larger decreasing percentage trend than the high-latitude permafrost area. This indicates that, in terms of speed, high-altitude permafrost thaw is faster than high-latitude permafrost, mainly due to the larger percentage sensitivity to rising air temperature of the high-altitude permafrost compared to the high-latitude permafrost, which is likely related to their thermal conditions. (3) Permafrost in China shows the fastest thaw, which is reflected by the percentage trend in permafrost area, followed by the United States, Russia, and Canada. These discrepancies are mainly linked to different percentage sensitivities of permafrost areas in these four countries to air temperature change. (4) In terms of the ensemble mean, permafrost areas in all regions are projected to decrease by the period 2080–2099. Under representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5, permafrost retreats toward the Arctic, and the thaw in every region mainly occurs at the southern edge of the permafrost area. Under RCP8.5, almost no permafrost is expected to remain in China, the United States, and the Tibetan Plateau. Permafrost in Russia will remain mainly in the western part of the east Siberian Mountains, and permafrost in Canada will retreat to the north of 65°N. Possible uncertainties in this study are primarily attributed to the climate model's coarse horizontal resolution. The results of the present study will be useful for understanding future permafrost degradation from the regional perspective.},
author = {Guo, Donglin and Wang, Huijun},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD024108},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CMIP5,permafrost,projection,surface frost index},
number = {9},
pages = {4499--4517},
title = {{CMIP5 permafrost degradation projection: A comparison among different regions}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015JD024108},
volume = {121},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Guo2020a,
abstract = {Lake ice phenology is a sensitive indicator reflecting global warming. In this article, the long-term changes in lake ice phenology of the second-largest lake at Tibetan Plateau (i.e., the Nam Co) in response to climate change are investigated based on mathematical modeling. The model has been testified capable of reproducing daily surface temperature of the lake in both frozen and unfrozen seasons. The lake ice phenology determined according to the simulated lake surface temperature is found consistent with that derived from satellite observations. For the Nam Co during the period 1978-2017, the freezing date has been delayed (reached up to 0.57 days/year), whereas the thawing date became earlier (-0.23 days/year). The trend of lake ice phenology is significantly correlated to the annual minimal lake surface and air temperature. Modeling experiment suggests that lake ice phenology of the Nam Co is very sensitive to a warmer climate. Under warmer future, much later freezing date and earlier thawing date are expected; hence the ice-covering duration would be significantly shortened.},
author = {Guo, L and Zheng, H and Wu, Y and Zhang, T and Wen, M and Fan, L and Zhang, B},
doi = {10.1109/JSTARS.2020.3006270},
issn = {2151-1535 VO  - 13},
journal = {IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing},
keywords = {Atmospheric modeling,Climate change,Ice,Lakes,Land surface,Land surface temperature,Modeling experiment,Nam Co,Remote sensing,Temperature sensors,Tibetan Plateau,air temperature,annual minimal lake surface,atmospheric temperature,climate change,freezing,global warming,ice,ice-covering duration,lake ice phenology,lake surface temperature,lakes,simulated lake surface temperature,unfrozen season},
pages = {3856--3861},
title = {{Responses of Lake Ice Phenology to Climate Change at Tibetan Plateau}},
volume = {13},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Guo2018e,
author = {Guo, Hao and Bao, Anming and Liu, Tie and Ndayisaba, Felix and Jiang, Liangliang and Kurban, Alishir and {De Maeyer}, Philippe},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.120},
issn = {0048-9697},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
pages = {1523--1538},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Central Asia during 1966–2015}},
volume = {624},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Guo2017,
author = {Guo, Xiaojun and Huang, Jianbin and Luo, Yong and Zhao, Zongci and Xu, Ying},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-015-1718-1},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {may},
number = {3-4},
pages = {507--522},
title = {{Projection of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets using 12 CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-015-1718-1},
volume = {128},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Gupta2018,
author = {Gupta, Vivek and Jain, Manoj Kumar},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.012},
file = {::},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {dec},
pages = {489--509},
title = {{Investigation of multi-model spatiotemporal mesoscale drought projections over India under climate change scenario}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S002216941830773X},
volume = {567},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Gupta2012,
abstract = {For proper transmission of power in overhead transmission lines temperature control and sag monitoring are the two major parameters to be kept in mind. Electrical load variation and environmental changes affect the temperature in the transmission lines. For proper safety measurements these monitoring should be done on a continuous basis. Some of the ongoing temperature and sag monitoring methods that can be sited are the usage of stainless steel temperature probes, glass based sensors, thermocouples, RTDs, and Infrared sensors. However, all these methods have a disadvantage of having loosening of contacts. Cross sensitivity may also arise due to environmental contaminations. The disturbances caused by the different parameters can be stated as follows:- High temperature due to climate changes decreases the efficiency of electrical transmissions. Extreme weather conditions would increase the chances of failure rate of power lines. Temperature rise also results in an increase in thunder storms and results in the lightning strike of power lines. 2 degrees Celsius of temperature rise increases network losses by 0.04{\%}. It is also found that operation of the conductors on high temperature reduces the mechanical integrity of the overhead systems. It is also clear that cumulative damage occurs to the Aluminium metal in the overhead conductors. Hence, in order to overcome these disadvantages, we hypothise the introduction of MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical Systems) technology through PLZT(L. This is a temperature sensor, which has numerous advantages over the existing ones. The thin film of Lead Lanthanum zirconate titanate (PLZT) will be coated on nickel foil by chemical solution deposition and this will be fabricated as sensor using MEMS technology. The sensor in turn will be embedded in the transmission line at selected point wherefrom monitoring of temperature and sag is quite feasible. This sensor will be having high chemical stability , high mechanical and thermal resistances , good piezoelectric coefficients and enhanced sensitivity for which it will be reckoned to be a more accurate and versatile one.},
author = {Gupta, Sd and Kundu, Souvik and Mallik, Abhishek},
journal = {International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering (IJRTE)},
number = {4},
pages = {43--45},
title = {{Monitoring of Sag {\&} Temperature in the Electrical Power Transmission lines}},
url = {http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.677.7493{\&}rep=rep1{\&}type=pdf},
volume = {1},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Gutierrez2020,
abstract = {In recent decades, trends in photovoltaic (PV) technology deployment have shown an overall increase across the world. Comprehensive knowledge of the solar resource and its future evolution is demanded by the energy sector. Solar resource and PV potential have been estimated in several studies using both the global climate model (GCM) and regional climate model (RCM), revealing a GCM–RCM discrepancy in the projected change over Europe. An increase in surface solar radiation (SSR) (and therefore in PV potential production) is projected by GCMs, whereas most RCM simulations project a decrease in SSR over Europe. In this work, we investigate the role of aerosol forcing in RCMs as a key explaining factor of this inconsistency. The results show that RCM simulations including evolving aerosols agree with GCMs in the sign and amplitude of the SSR change over Europe for mid-21st century projections (2021–2050 compared to 1971–2000 for representative concentration pathway climate change scenario RCP8.5). The opposite signal is projected by the rest of the RCMs. The amplitude of the changes likely depends on the RCM and on its aerosol forcing choice. In terms of PV potential, RCMs including evolving aerosols simulate an increase, especially in summer for Central and Eastern Europe, with maximum values reaching +10{\%} in some cases. This study illustrates the key role of the often-neglected aerosol forcing evolution in RCMs. It also suggests that it is important to be very careful when using the multi-model Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) projections for solar radiation and related variables, and argues for the inclusion of aerosol forcing evolution in the next generation of CORDEX simulations.},
author = {Guti{\'{e}}rrez, C and Somot, S and Nabat, P and Mallet, M and Corre, L and van Meijgaard, E and Perpi{\~{n}}{\'{a}}n, O and Gaertner, M {\'{A}}},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab6666},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {3},
pages = {34035},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Future evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe: investigating the role of aerosols}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6666},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Habeeb2015,
author = {Habeeb, Dana and Vargo, Jason and Stone, Brian},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-014-1563-z},
issn = {0921-030X},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
month = {apr},
number = {3},
pages = {1651--1665},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Rising heat wave trends in large US cities}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-014-1563-z},
volume = {76},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hackenbruch2017,
abstract = {Municipalities are important actors in the field of local climate change adaptation. Stakeholders need scientifically sound information tailored to their needs to make local assessment of climate change effects. To provide tailored data to support municipal decision-making, climate scientists must know the state of municipal climate change adaptation, and the climate parameters relevant to decisions about such adaptation. The results of an empirical study in municipalities in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Southwestern Germany showed that adaptation is a relatively new topic, but one of increasing importance. Therefore, past weather events that caused problems in a municipality can be a starting point in adaptation considerations. Deduction of tailored climate parameters has shown that, for decisions on the implementation of specific adaptation measures, it also is necessary to have information on specific parameters not yet evaluated in climate model simulations. We recommend intensifying the professional exchange between climate scientists and stakeholders in collaborative projects with the dual goals of making practical adaptation experience and knowledge accessible to climate science, and providing municipalities with tailored information about climate change and its effects.},
author = {Hackenbruch, Julia and Kunz-Plapp, Tina and M{\"{u}}ller, Sebastian and Schipper, Janus},
doi = {10.3390/cli5020025},
issn = {2225-1154},
journal = {Climate},
keywords = {Adaptation,Climate change,Climate information,Climate parameters,Extreme weather events,Germany,Municipalities,User needs},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {25},
publisher = {MDPI AG},
title = {{Tailoring Climate Parameters to Information Needs for Local Adaptation to Climate Change}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/5/2/25},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hadji2014,
author = {Hadji, Riheb and Limani, Yacine and Boumazbeur, Abd Errahmane and Demdoum, Abdeslem and Zighmi, Karim and Zahri, Farid and Chouabi, Abdelmadjid},
doi = {10.1080/19443994.2013.812989},
issn = {1944-3994},
journal = {Desalination and Water Treatment},
month = {mar},
number = {10-12},
pages = {2057--2072},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Climate change and its influence on shrinkage–swelling clays susceptibility in a semi-arid zone: a case study of Souk Ahras municipality, NE-Algeria}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/19443994.2013.812989},
volume = {52},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Haeberli2013,
abstract = {Advanced methodologies such as core drilling, borehole logging/monitoring, geophysical tomography, high-precision photogrammetry, laser altimetry, GPS/SAR surveying, miniature temperature data logging, geotechnical laboratory analyses, numerical modelling, or GIS-based simulation of spatial distribution patterns in complex topography at regional to global scales have created a rapidly increasing knowledge basis concerning permafrost in cold mountain ranges. Based on a keynote presentation about mountain permafrost at CFG8 in Obergurgl 2012, a brief summary is provided concerning primary research frontiers and the long-term challenge related to the increasing probability of far-reaching flood waves in high-mountain regions originating at newly forming lakes as a consequence of large rock falls and landslides from destabilising steep rock walls with conditions of warming and degrading permafrost often in combination with de-buttressing by vanishing glaciers. Research is especially intense in the densely populated European Alps. {\textcopyright} 2013 Elsevier B.V.},
author = {Haeberli, W.},
doi = {10.1016/j.coldregions.2013.02.004},
journal = {Cold Regions Science and Technology},
pages = {71--76},
title = {{Mountain permafrost – research frontiers and a special long-term challenge}},
volume = {96},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Haeberli2017a,
abstract = {While glacier volumes in most cold mountain ranges rapidly decrease due to continued global warming, degradation of permafrost at altitudes above and below glaciers is much slower. As a consequence, many still existing glacier and permafrost landscapes probably transform within decades into new landscapes of bare bedrock, loose debris, sparse vegetation, numerous new lakes and steep slopes with slowly degrading permafrost. These new landscapes are likely to persist for centuries if not millennia to come. During variable but mostly extended future time periods, such new landscapes will be characterized by pronounced disequilibria within their geo- and ecosystems. This especially involves long-term stability reduction of steep/icy mountain slopes as a slow and delayed reaction to stress redistribution following de-buttressing by vanishing glaciers and to changes in mechanical strength and hydraulic permeability caused by permafrost degradation. Thereby, the probability of far-reaching flood waves from large mass movements into lakes systematically increases with the formation of many new lakes and systems of lakes in close neighborhood to, or even directly at the foot of, so-affected slopes. Results of recent studies in the Swiss Alps are reviewed and complemented with examples from the Cordillera Blanca in Peru and the Mount Everest region in Nepal. Hot spots of future hazards from potential flood waves caused by large rock falls into new lakes can already now be recognized. To this end, integrated spatial information on glacier/permafrost evolution and lake formation can be used together with scenario-based models for rapid mass movements, impact waves and flood propagation. The resulting information must then be combined with exposure and vulnerability considerations related to settlements and infrastructure. This enables timely planning of risk reduction options. Such risk reduction options consist of two components: Mitigation of hazards, which in the present context are due to effects from climate change, and reduction in consequences, which result from societal conditions and changes. Hazard mitigation may include artificial lake drainage or lake-level lowering and flood retention, optimally in connection with multipurpose structures for hydropower production and/or irrigation. Reduction in damage potential (exposure, vulnerability) can be accomplished by installing early-warning systems, adapting spatial planning and/or by improving preparedness of local people and institutions.},
author = {Haeberli, Wilfried and Schaub, Yvonne and Huggel, Christian},
doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.02.009},
issn = {0169555X},
journal = {Geomorphology},
keywords = {Climate change,Floods,Glaciers,Hazard,High mountains,Impact waves,New lakes,Permafrost,Risk},
month = {sep},
pages = {405--417},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Increasing risks related to landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating mountain ranges}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169555X16300381},
volume = {293},
year = {2017}
}
@article{GebremeskelHaile2020a,
abstract = {Understanding historical patterns of changes in drought is essential for drought adaptation and mitigation. While the negative impacts of drought in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) have attracted increasing attention, a comprehensive and long-term spatiotemporal assessment of drought is still lacking. Here, we provided a comprehensive spatiotemporal drought pattern analysis during the period of 1964–2015 over the GHA. The Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at various timescales (1 month (SPEI-01), 3 month (SPEI-03), 6 month (SPEI-06), and 12 month (SPEI-12)) was used to investigate drought patterns on a monthly, seasonal, and interannual basis. The results showed that despite regional differences, an overall increasing tendency of drought was observed across the GHA over the past 52 yr, with trends of change of −0.0017 yr−1, −0.0036 yr−1, −0.0031 yr−1, and −0.0023 yr−1 for SPEI-01, SPEI-03, SPEI-06, and SPEI-12, respectively. Droughts were more frequent, persistent, and intense in Sudan and Tanzania, while more severe droughts were found in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Droughts occurred frequently before the 1990 s, and then became intermittent with large-scale impacts occurred during 1973–1974, 1984–1985, and 2010–2011. A turning point was also detected in 1989, with the SPEI showing a statistically significant downward trend during 1964–1989 and a non-statistically significant downward trend from 1990 to 2015. Seasonally, droughts exhibited an increasing trend in winter, spring, and summer, but a decreasing trend in autumn. The research findings have significant implications for drought adaptation and mitigation strategies through identifying the hotspot regions across the GHA at various timescales. Area-specific efforts are required to alleviate environmental and societal vulnerabilities to drought events.},
author = {Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel and Tang, Qiuhong and Leng, Guoyong and Jia, Guoqiang and Wang, Jie and Cai, Diwen and Sun, Siao and Baniya, Binod and Zhang, Qinghuan},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135299},
issn = {00489697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
keywords = {Drought characteristics,Drought trends,East Africa,Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Inde},
month = {feb},
pages = {135299},
title = {{Long-term spatiotemporal variation of drought patterns over the Greater Horn of Africa}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896971935291X https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S004896971935291X},
volume = {704},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Haines2019,
abstract = {A range of institutions and individuals are engaging in the provision, translation, and application of scientific climate information, with the aim of supporting agricultural decision-making in the context of climate variability and change. This article contributes to understanding political and ethical dimensions of climate services by focusing on how expertise is articulated by those who deliver anticipatory information to potential users. The article draws on interviews and observations with forecasters, advisors, and decision-makers in Belize—a low-lying, coastal country recognised to be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. I show how emerging debates over who and what is left out of climate services are not only about the use and usability of climate knowledge, but about how individuals and institutions are positioned in relation to each other and to uncertain futures in Belize and elsewhere.},
author = {Haines, Sophie},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2357-1},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {43--59},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Managing expectations: articulating expertise in climate services for agriculture in Belize}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2357-1},
volume = {157},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hajat2014,
abstract = {BACKGROUND: The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere.$\backslash$n$\backslash$nMETHODS: Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled.$\backslash$n$\backslash$nRESULTS: A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257{\%} by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2{\%} from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing.$\backslash$n$\backslash$nCONCLUSIONS: Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.},
author = {Hajat, Shakoor and Vardoulakis, Sotiris and Heaviside, Clare and Eggen, Bernd},
doi = {10.1136/jech-2013-202449},
isbn = {0143005X (ISSN)},
issn = {0143-005X},
journal = {Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {641--648},
pmid = {24493740},
title = {{Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s}},
url = {http://jech.bmj.com/lookup/doi/10.1136/jech-2013-202449},
volume = {68},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Hall2019,
abstract = {The average speed of tropical cyclone (TC) translation has slowed since the mid 20th century. Here we report that North Atlantic (NA) TCs have become increasingly likely to “stall” near the coast, spending many hours in confined regions. The stalling is driven not only by slower translation, but also by an increase in abrupt changes of direction. We compute residence-time distributions for TCs in confined coastal regions, and find that the tails of these distributions have increased significantly. We also show that TCs stalling over a region result in more rain on the region. Together, increased stalling and increased rain during stalls imply increased coastal rainfall from TCs, other factors equal. Although the data are sparse, we do in fact find a significant positive trend in coastal annual-mean rainfall 1948–2017 from TCs that stall, and we verify that this is due to increased stalling frequency. We make no attribution to anthropogenic climate forcing for the stalling or rainfall; the trends could be due to low frequency natural variability. Regardless of the cause, the significant increases in TC stalling frequency and high potential for associated increases in rainfall have very likely exacerbated TC hazards for coastal populations.},
author = {Hall, Timothy M. and Kossin, James P.},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-019-0074-8},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {17},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
title = {{Hurricane stalling along the North American coast and implications for rainfall}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0074-8},
volume = {2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hall2014,
author = {Hall, J and Arheimer, B and Borga, M and Br{\'{a}}zdil, R and Claps, P and Kiss, A and Kjeldsen, T R and Kriau{\^{c}}uniene, J and Kundzewicz, Z W and Lang, M and Llasat, M C and Macdonald, N and McIntyre, N and Mediero, L and Merz, B and Merz, R and Molnar, P and Montanari, A and Neuhold, C and Parajka, J and Perdig{\~{a}}o, R A P and Plavcov{\'{a}}, L and Rogger, M and Salinas, J L and Sauquet, E and Sch{\"{a}}r, C and Szolgay, J and Viglione, A and Bl{\"{o}}schl, G},
doi = {10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {7},
pages = {2735--2772},
title = {{Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: A state-of-the-art assessment}},
volume = {18},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Hallegatte2013,
abstract = {Flood losses in coastal cities will rise due to increasing populations and assets. Research now quantifies average losses in the 136 largest coastal cities. Estimated at approximately US{\$}6 billion in 2005, average annual losses could increase to US{\$}52 billion by 2050 on the basis of projected socio-economic change alone. If climate change and subsidence are also considered, current protection will need to be upgraded to avoid unacceptable losses.},
author = {Hallegatte, Stephane and Green, Colin and Nicholls, Robert J. and Corfee-Morlot, Jan},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1979},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Climate change,change adaptation,change impacts},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {802--806},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Future flood losses in major coastal cities}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1979},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@unpublished{Hallegatte2010,
author = {Hallegatte, St{\'{e}}phane and Przyluski, Valentin},
doi = {10.1596/1813-9450-5507},
month = {dec},
pages = {29},
publisher = {The World Bank},
series = {Policy Research Working Paper 5507},
title = {{The economics of natural disasters: Concepts and methods}},
url = {http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/1813-9450-5507},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Hallegraeff2014,
abstract = {A massive central Australian dust storm in September 2009 was associated with abundant fungal spores (150,000/m 3 ) and hyphae in coastal waters between Brisbane (27°S) and Sydney (34°S). These spores were successfully germinated from formalin-preserved samples, and using molecular sequencing of three different genes (the large subunit rRNA gene [LSU], internal transcribed spacer [ITS[, and beta-tubulin gene), they were conclusively identified as Aspergillus sydowii , an organism circumstantially associated with gorgonian coral fan disease in the Caribbean. Surprisingly, no human health or marine ecosystem impacts were associated with this Australian dust storm event. Australian fungal cultures were nontoxic to fish gills and caused a minor reduction in the motility of Alexandrium or Chattonella algal cultures but had their greatest impacts on Symbiodinium dinoflagellate coral symbiont motility, with hyphae being more detrimental than spores. While we have not yet seen any soft coral disease outbreaks on the Australian Great Barrier Reef similar to those observed in the Caribbean and while this particular fungal population was non- or weakly pathogenic, our observations raise the possibility of future marine ecosystem pathogen impacts from similar dust storms harboring more pathogenic strains.},
author = {Hallegraeff, Gustaaf and Coman, Frank and Davies, Claire and Hayashi, Aiko and McLeod, David and Slotwinski, Anita and Whittock, Lucy and Richardson, Anthony J},
doi = {10.1128/AEM.04118-13},
editor = {Drake, H. L.},
issn = {0099-2240},
journal = {Applied and Environmental Microbiology},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {3315--3320},
pmid = {24657868},
publisher = {American Society for Microbiology},
title = {{Australian Dust Storm Associated with Extensive Aspergillus sydowii Fungal “Bloom” in Coastal Waters}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24657868 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC4018840 http://aem.asm.org/lookup/doi/10.1128/AEM.04118-13},
volume = {80},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Halpern2015,
abstract = {Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular
on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem
management(1) but remains a critical knowledge gap(2). Here, we use
climate velocity trajectories(3), together with information on thermal
tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global
patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC
Representative Concentration Pathways(4) (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple,
intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to
model over 12 times as many species as previous studies(5,6). We find
that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to
2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal
changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the
loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize
present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates
are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under
RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated
formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The
spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human
impacts(7,8) highlights potential areas of future conservation concern.
These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current
global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are
assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response
to ocean warming.},
author = {Halpern, Benjamin S. and {Garc{\'{i}}a Molinos}, Jorge and Burrows, Michael T. and Kiessling, Wolfgang and Schoeman, David S. and Poloczanska, Elvira S. and Moore, Pippa J. and Richardson, Anthony J. and Pandolfi, John M. and Brown, Christopher J.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2769},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {1},
pages = {83--88},
title = {{Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity}},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hamann2015,
author = {Hamann, Andreas and Roberts, David R. and Barber, Quinn E. and Carroll, Carlos and Nielsen, Scott E.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.12736},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {997--1004},
title = {{Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.12736},
volume = {21},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hamaoui-Laguel2015,
abstract = {Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive alien species in Europe producing pollen that causes severe allergic disease in susceptible individuals(1). Ragweed plants could further invade European land with climate and land-use changes(2,3). However, airborne pollen evolution depends not only on plant invasion, but also on pollen production, release and atmospheric dispersion changes. To predict the effect of climate and land-use changes on airborne pollen concentrations, we used two comprehensive modelling frameworks accounting for all these factors under high-end and moderate climate and land-use change scenarios. We estimate that by 2050 airborne ragweed pollen concentrations will be about 4 times higher than they are now, with a range of uncertainty from 2 to 12 largely depending on the seed dispersal rate assumptions. About a third of the airborne pollen increase is due to on-going seed dispersal, irrespective of climate change. The remaining two-thirds are related to climate and land-use changes that will extend ragweed habitat suitability in northern and eastern Europe and increase pollen production in established ragweed areas owing to increasing CO2. Therefore, climate change and ragweed seed dispersal in current and future suitable areas will increase airborne pollen concentrations, which may consequently heighten the incidence and prevalence of ragweed allergy.},
author = {Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda and Vautard, Robert and Liu, Li and Solmon, Fabien and Viovy, Nicolas and Khvorostyanov, Dmitry and Essl, Franz and Chuine, Isabelle and Colette, Augustin and Semenov, Mikhail A. and Schaffhauser, Alice and Storkey, Jonathan and Thibaudon, Michel and Epstein, Michelle M.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2652},
isbn = {1758-678x},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {766--771},
title = {{Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2652},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hambly2013,
author = {Hambly, Derrick and Andrey, Jean and Mills, Brian and Fletcher, Chris},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-012-0499-0},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {613--629},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Projected implications of climate change for road safety in Greater Vancouver, Canada}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-012-0499-0},
volume = {116},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hamilton2005,
author = {Hamilton, Jason G. and Dermody, Orla and Aldea, Mihai and Zangerl, Arthur R. and Rogers, Alistair and Berenbaum, May R. and Delucia, Evan H.},
doi = {10.1603/0046-225X-34.2.479},
issn = {0046-225X},
journal = {Environmental Entomology},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {479--485},
title = {{Anthropogenic Changes in Tropospheric Composition Increase Susceptibility of Soybean to Insect Herbivory}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/ee/article-lookup/doi/10.1603/0046-225X-34.2.479},
volume = {34},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Hand2016,
author = {Hand, J. L. and White, W. H. and Gebhart, K. A. and Hyslop, N. P. and Gill, T. E. and Schichtel, B. A.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL068519},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Aerosols and particles},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {4001--4009},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Earlier onset of the spring fine dust season in the southwestern United States}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL068519},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Handwerger2019,
abstract = {The addition of water on or below the earth's surface generates changes in stress that can trigger both stable and unstable sliding of landslides and faults. While these sliding behaviours are well-described by commonly used mechanical models developed from laboratory testing (e.g., critical-state soil mechanics and rate-and-state friction), less is known about the field-scale environmental conditions or kinematic behaviours that occur during the transition from stable to unstable sliding. Here we use radar interferometry (InSAR) and a simple 1D hydrological model to characterize 8 years of stable sliding of the Mud Creek landslide, California, USA, prior to its rapid acceleration and catastrophic failure on May 20, 2017. Our results suggest a large increase in pore-fluid pressure occurred during a shift from historic drought to record rainfall that triggered a large increase in velocity and drove slip localization, overcoming the stabilizing mechanisms that had previously inhibited landslide acceleration. Given the predicted increase in precipitation extremes with a warming climate, we expect it to become more common for landslides to transition from stable to unstable motion, and therefore a better assessment of this destabilization process is required to prevent loss of life and infrastructure.},
author = {Handwerger, Alexander L. and Huang, Mong-Han and Fielding, Eric Jameson and Booth, Adam M. and B{\"{u}}rgmann, Roland},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38300-0},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Geomorphology,Geophysics,Natural hazards},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1569},
pmid = {30733588},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{A shift from drought to extreme rainfall drives a stable landslide to catastrophic failure}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38300-0 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-38300-0},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hanes2019,
abstract = {Contemporary fire regimes of Canadian forests have been well documented based on forest fire records between the late 1950s to 1990s. Due to known limitations of fire datasets, an analysis of changes in fire-regime characteristics could not be easily undertaken. This paper presents fire-regime trends nationally and within two zonation systems, the homogeneous fire-regime zones and ecozones, for two time periods, 1959–2015 and 1980–2015. Nationally, trends in both area burned and number of large fires (≥200 ha) have increased significantly since 1959, which might be due to increases in lightning-caused fires. Human-caused fires, in contrast, have shown a decline. Results suggest that large fires have been getting larger over the last 57 years and that the fire season has been starting approximately one week earlier and ending one week later. At the regional level, trends in fire regimes are variable across the country, with fewer significant trends. Area burned, number of large fires, and lightning-caused fires are increasing in most of western Canada, whereas human-caused fires are either stable or declining throughout the country. Overall, Canadian forests appear to have been engaged in a trajectory towards more active fire regimes over the last half century.},
author = {Hanes, Chelene C. and Wang, Xianli and Jain, Piyush and Parisien, Marc Andr{\'{e}} and Little, John M. and Flannigan, Mike D.},
doi = {10.1139/cjfr-2018-0293},
issn = {12086037},
journal = {Canadian Journal of Forest Research},
keywords = {Canadian forests,Fire regime,Trend analysis,Wildfire},
number = {3},
pages = {256--269},
publisher = {Canadian Science Publishing},
title = {{Fire-regime changes in Canada over the last half century}},
url = {https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfr-2018-0293},
volume = {49},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hanewinkel2012,
abstract = {European forests are threatened by climate change with impacts on the distribution of tree species. Previous discussions on the consequences of biome shifts have concentrated only on ecological issues; however, research now shows that under forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation there could be a decline of economically valuable species, which would lead to a loss in the value of European forest land.},
author = {Hanewinkel, Marc and Cullmann, Dominik A. and Schelhaas, Mart-Jan and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and Zimmermann, Niklaus E.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1687},
isbn = {1359501303264},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Environmental economics,Forest ecology,change impacts},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {203--207},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1687},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{James2016,
abstract = {Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve' defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO 2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.},
author = {Hansen, James and Sato, Makiko},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009},
isbn = {1748-9326},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate policy,fossil fuels,global warming,migration,regional climate},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {034009},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Regional climate change and national responsibilities}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=3/a=034009 http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=3/a=034009?key=crossref.8e2fa382e38b2943bf90e047fda185e2},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hansen2014,
author = {Hansen, Brage B and Isaksen, Ketil and Benestad, Rasmus E and Kohler, Jack and Pedersen, {\AA}shild {\O} and Loe, Leif E and Coulson, Stephen J and Larsen, Jan Otto and Varpe, {\O}ystein},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {114021},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/9/i=11/a=114021?key=crossref.13bc76338c0f0951e5528989af12c057},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Hansen2019,
abstract = {We consider the question of what is needed for climate services to support sub-Saharan African farmers' adaptation needs at the scale of the climate challenge. Consistent with an earlier assessment that mutually reinforcing supply-side and demand-side capacity constraints impede the development of effective climate services in Africa, our discussion of strategies for scaling up practices that meet farmers' needs, and opportunities to address long-standing obstacles, is organized around: (a) meeting farmers' climate information needs; (b) supporting access, understanding and use; and (c) co-production of services. A widespread gap between available information and farmers' needs is associated with entrenched seasonal forecast convention and obstacles to using observational data. Scalable innovations for producing more locally relevant historical and forecast climate information for farm decision-making are beginning to be adopted. Structured participatory communication processes help farmers relate complex climate information to their experience, and integrate it into their management decisions. Promising efforts to deliver rural climate services strategically combine communication channels that include participatory processes embedded in existing agricultural advisory systems, and innovations in interactive broadcast media. Efforts to engage farmers in co-production of climate services improve delivery to farmers and dialogue among stakeholders, but often with little impact on the usability of available information. We discuss challenges and options for capturing farmers' evolving demands, and aggregating and incorporating this information into iterative improvements to climate services at a national scale. We find evidence that key weaknesses in the supply and the demand sides of climate services continue to reinforce each other to impede progress toward meeting farmers' needs at scale across Africa. Six recommendations target these weaknesses: (1) change the way seasonal forecasts are produced and presented regionally and nationally, (2) use merged gridded data as a foundation for national climate information products, (3) remove barriers to using historical data as a public good, (4) mobilize those who work on the demand side of climate services as an effective community of practice, (5) collectively assess and improve tools and processes for communicating climate information with rural communities, and (6) build iterative co-production processes into national climate service frameworks.},
author = {Hansen, James W. and Vaughan, Catherine and Kagabo, Desire M. and Dinku, Tufa and Carr, Edward R. and K{\"{o}}rner, Jana and Zougmor{\'{e}}, Robert B.},
doi = {10.3389/fsufs.2019.00021},
issn = {2571-581X},
journal = {Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems},
month = {apr},
pages = {21},
publisher = {Frontiers Media SA},
title = {{Climate Services Can Support African Farmers' Context-Specific Adaptation Needs at Scale}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fsufs.2019.00021/full},
volume = {3},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hanzer2018,
abstract = {2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 {\%}, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 {\%} of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 {\%} (total) and 13 {\%} (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 {\%} (total) and 47 {\%} (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.]]{\textgreater}},
author = {Hanzer, Florian and F{\"{o}}rster, Kristian and Nemec, Johanna and Strasser, Ulrich},
doi = {10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {1593--1614},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the {\"{O}}tztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1593/2018/},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Haque2019,
author = {Haque, Ubydul and da Silva, Paula F. and Devoli, Graziella and Pilz, J{\"{u}}rgen and Zhao, Bingxin and Khaloua, Asmaa and Wilopo, Wahyu and Andersen, Peter and Lu, Ping and Lee, Juneseok and Yamamoto, Taro and Keellings, David and Wu, Jian-Hong and Glass, Gregory E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.415},
issn = {00489697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
month = {sep},
pages = {673--684},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{The human cost of global warming: Deadly landslides and their triggers (1995–2014)}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969719314214},
volume = {682},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Harley2017,
abstract = {Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of large-scale episodic beach erosion along coastlines in temperate regions. However, key drivers of the magnitude and regional variability in rapid morphological changes caused by ETCs at the coast remain poorly understood. Here we analyze an unprecedented dataset of high-resolution regional-scale morphological response to an ETC that impacted southeast Australia, and evaluate the new observations within the context of an existing long-term coastal monitoring program. This ETC was characterized by moderate intensity (for this regional setting) deepwater wave heights, but an anomalous wave direction approximately 45 degrees more counter-clockwise than average. The magnitude of measured beach volume change was the largest in four decades at the long-term monitoring site and, at the regional scale, commensurate with that observed due to extreme North Atlantic hurricanes. Spatial variability in morphological response across the study region was predominantly controlled by alongshore gradients in storm wave energy flux and local coastline alignment relative to storm wave direction. We attribute the severity of coastal erosion observed due to this ETC primarily to its anomalous wave direction, and call for greater research on the impacts of changing storm wave directionality in addition to projected future changes in wave heights.},
author = {Harley, Mitchell D. and Turner, Ian L. and Kinsela, Michael A. and Middleton, Jason H. and Mumford, Peter J. and Splinter, Kristen D. and Phillips, Matthew S. and Simmons, Joshua A. and Hanslow, David J. and Short, Andrew D.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-05792-1},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Natural hazards,Physical oceanography},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {6033},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anomalous extratropical storm wave direction}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-05792-1},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Harrington2018b,
abstract = {In the last decade, climate mitigation policy has galvanised around staying below specified thresholds of global mean temperature, with an understanding that exceeding these thresholds may result in dangerous interference of the climate system. UNFCCC texts have developed thresholds in which the aim is to limit warming to well below 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, with an additional aspirational target of 1.5°C. However, denoting a specific threshold of global mean temperatures as a target for avoiding damaging climate impacts implicitly obscures potentially significant regional variations in the magnitude of these projected impacts. This study introduces a simple framework to quantify the magnitude of this heterogeneity in changing climate hazards at 1.5°C of warming, using case studies of emergent increases in temperature and rainfall extremes. For example, we find that up to double the amount of global warming (3.0°C) is needed before people in high income countries experience the same relative changes in extreme heat that low income nations should anticipate after only 1.5°C of warming. By mapping how much warming is needed in one location to match the impacts of a fixed temperature threshold in another location, this ?Temperature of Equivalence? (TE) index is a flexible and easy-to-understand communication tool, with the potential to inform where targeted support for adaptation projects should be prioritised in a warming world.},
author = {Harrington, Luke J. and Frame, Dave and King, Andrew D. and Otto, Friederike E.L.},
doi = {10.1029/2018gl078888},
isbn = {0094-8276},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Paris Agreement,adaptation,climate change,climate impacts},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {6672--6680},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{How Uneven Are Changes to Impact-Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL078888},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Harrison2018,
author = {Harrison, Stephan and Kargel, Jeffrey S. and Huggel, Christian and Reynolds, John and Shugar, Dan H. and Betts, Richard A. and Emmer, Adam and Glasser, Neil and Haritashya, Umesh K. and Klime{\v{s}}, Jan and Reinhardt, Liam and Schaub, Yvonne and Wiltshire, Andy and Regmi, Dhananjay and Vil{\'{i}}mek, V{\'{i}}t},
doi = {10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1195--1209},
title = {{Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods}},
url = {https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1195/2018/},
volume = {12},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Harvey2016,
abstract = {Effects of climate warming on natural and human systems are becoming increasingly visible across the globe. For example, the shattering of past yearly records for global high temperatures seems to be a near-annual event, with the five hottest years since 1880 all occurring since 2005 (1). Not coincidentally, the single hottest year on record, 2015, also broke records for area burned by wildfire in the United States (Fig. 1 A and B ), eclipsing the previous high mark set just one decade prior (2). Scientists have known for some time that climate is a key driver of forest fires; records from the past and present (3⇓–5) provide strong evidence that warmer temperatures are associated with spikes in fire activity. Therefore, recent increases in wildfire activity as the planet warms are not a surprise. However, just how much of the recent increases in forest fire activity can be attributed to human-caused climate change vs. natural variability in climate? This question has profound scientific, management, and policy implications, yet answers have thus far remained elusive. In PNAS, Abatzoglou and Williams (6) present strong evidence that human-caused climate change is increasing wildfire activity across wide swaths of forested land in the western United States. They demonstrate that human-caused climate change has lengthened the annual fire season (i.e., the window of time each year with weather that is conducive to forest fires) and, since 1984, has doubled the cumulative area in the western United States that would have otherwise burned due to natural climate forcing alone. {\ldots} [↵][1]1Email: brianjamesharvey{\{}at{\}}gmail.com. [1]: {\#}xref-corresp-1-1},
author = {Harvey, Brian J},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1612926113},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {42},
pages = {11649--11650},
pmid = {27791047},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Human-caused climate change is now a key driver of forest fire activity in the western United States}},
url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/113/42/11649},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hassanzadeh2020a,
abstract = {The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but―consistently across models―stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21st century.},
author = {Hassanzadeh, Pedram and Lee, Chia-Ying and Nabizadeh, Ebrahim and Camargo, Suzana J and Ma, Ding and Yeung, Laurence Y},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {3319},
title = {{Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17130-7},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@techreport{Hatfield2015,
author = {Hatfield, J L and Swanston, C and Janowiak, M and Steele, R},
editor = {Anderson, Terry},
pages = {55},
publisher = {U.S. Department of Agriculture},
title = {{USDA Midwest and Northern Forests Regional Climate Hub: Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies}},
url = {https://www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/content/usda-midwest-and-northern-forests-regional-climate-hub-assessment-climate-change},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hatfield2015a,
abstract = {Temperature is a primary factor affecting the rate of plant development. Warmer temperatures expected with climate change and the potential for more extreme temperature events will impact plant productivity. Pollination is one of the most sensitive phenological stages to temperature extremes across all species and during this developmental stage temperature extremes would greatly affect production. Few adaptation strategies are available to cope with temperature extremes at this developmental stage other than to select for plants which shed pollen during the cooler periods of the day or are indeterminate so flowering occurs over a longer period of the growing season. In controlled environment studies, warm temperatures increased the rate of phenological development; however, there was no effect on leaf area or vegetative biomass compared to normal temperatures. The major impact of warmer temperatures was during the reproductive stage of development and in all cases grain yield in maize was significantly reduced by as much as 80−90{\%} from a normal temperature regime. Temperature effects are increased by water deficits and excess soil water demonstrating that understanding the interaction of temperature and water will be needed to develop more effective adaptation strategies to offset the impacts of greater temperature extreme events associated with a changing climate.},
author = {Hatfield, Jerry L. and Prueger, John H.},
doi = {10.1016/J.WACE.2015.08.001},
issn = {2212-0947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
month = {dec},
pages = {4--10},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300116},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{Hatfield2014,
abstract = {1. Climate disruptions to agricultural production have increased in the recent past and are projected to increase further over the next 25 years. By mid-century and beyond, these impacts will be increasingly negative on most crops and livestock. 2. Many agricultural regions will experience declines in crop and livestock production from increased stress due to weeds, diseases, insect pests, and other climate change- induced stresses. 3. Current loss and degradation of critical agricultural soil and water assets by increasing extremes in precipitation will continue to challenge both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture unless innovative conservation methods are implemented. 4. The rising incidence of weather extremes will have increasingly negative impacts on crop and livestock productivity because critical thresholds are already being exceeded. 5. Agriculture has been able to adapt to recent changes in climate; however, increased innovation will be needed to ensure the rate of adaptation of agriculture and the associated socioeconomic system can keep pace with future climate change. 6. Climate change effects on agriculture will have consequences for food security both in the U.S. and globally, not only through changes in crop yields, but also changes in the ways climate affects food processing, storage, transportation, and retailing. 34},
author = {Hatfield, J.L. and Takle, G. and Grotjahn, R. and Holden, P. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Mader, T. and Marshall, E. and Liverman, D.},
booktitle = {Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment},
doi = {10.7930/J02Z13FR},
editor = {Melillo, J. M. and Richmond, T.C. and Yohe, G. W.},
pages = {150--174},
publisher = {U.S Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Ch. 6: Agriculture}},
url = {http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/agriculture},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Hatfield2011,
author = {Hatfield, J. L. and Boote, K. J. and Kimball, B. A. and Ziska, L. H. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Ort, D. and Thomson, A. M. and Wolfe, D.},
doi = {10.2134/agronj2010.0303},
issn = {1435-0645},
journal = {Agronomy Journal},
number = {2},
pages = {351},
title = {{Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Implications for Crop Production}},
url = {https://www.agronomy.org/publications/aj/abstracts/103/2/351},
volume = {103},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Hauer2016,
abstract = {Ongoing population growth could greatly exacerbate the human impact of sea-level rise in coastal areas of the continental US this century, with the potential to induce mass population movements unless protective measures are taken.},
author = {Hauer, Mathew E. and Evans, Jason M. and Mishra, Deepak R.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2961},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Projection and prediction,Sociology,change impacts},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {691--695},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2961},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Haumann2016,
abstract = {Recent salinity changes in the Southern Ocean are among the most prominent signals of climate change in the global ocean, yet their underlying causes have not been firmly established. Here we propose that trends in the northward transport of Antarctic sea ice are a major contributor to these changes. Using satellite observations supplemented by sea-ice reconstructions, we estimate that wind-driven northward freshwater transport by sea ice increased by 20 ± 10 per cent between 1982 and 2008. The strongest and most robust increase occurred in the Pacific sector, coinciding with the largest observed salinity changes. We estimate that the additional freshwater for the entire northern sea-ice edge entails a freshening rate of '0.02 ± 0.01 grams per kilogram per decade in the surface and intermediate waters of the open ocean, similar to the observed freshening. The enhanced rejection of salt near the coast of Antarctica associated with stronger sea-ice export counteracts the freshening of both continental shelf and newly formed bottom waters due to increases in glacial meltwater. Although the data sources underlying our results have substantial uncertainties, regional analyses and independent data from an atmospheric reanalysis support our conclusions. Our finding that northward sea-ice freshwater transport is also a key determinant of the mean salinity distribution in the Southern Ocean further underpins the importance of the sea-ice-induced freshwater flux. Through its influence on the density structure of the ocean, this process has critical consequences for the global climate by affecting the exchange of heat, carbon and nutrients between the deep ocean and surface waters.},
author = {Haumann, F. Alexander and Gruber, Nicolas and M{\"{u}}nnich, Matthias and Frenger, Ivy and Kern, Stefan},
doi = {10.1038/nature19101},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {sep},
number = {7618},
pages = {89--92},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Sea-ice transport driving Southern Ocean salinity and its recent trends}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature19101},
volume = {537},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hawkins2012a,
abstract = {The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Here we present a methodology for estimating ToE for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of ToE for surface air temperature (SAT) based on the CMIP3 global climate models. Consistent with previous studies we show that the median ToE occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. We also show that the median ToE in the Arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. A key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in ToE that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. The uncertainty in ToE is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. Alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median ToE (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. The SRES B1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in ToE in some regions. Our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050087},
author = {Hawkins, E and Sutton, R},
doi = {10.1029/2011GL050087},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate variability,temperature change,time of emergence},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {L01702},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Time of emergence of climate signals}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050087 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011GL050087},
volume = {39},
year = {2012}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086259,
abstract = {Abstract Changes in climate are usually considered in terms of trends or differences over time. However, for many impacts requiring adaptation, it is the amplitude of the change relative to the local amplitude of climate variability which is more relevant. Here, we develop the concept of “signal-to-noise” in observations of local temperature, highlighting that many regions are already experiencing a climate which would be “unknown” by late 19th century standards. The emergence of observed temperature changes over both land and ocean is clearest in tropical regions, in contrast to the regions of largest change which are in the northern extratropics—broadly consistent with climate model simulations. Significant increases and decreases in rainfall have also already emerged in different regions with the United Kingdom experiencing a shift toward more extreme rainfall events, a signal which is emerging more clearly in some places than the changes in mean rainfall.},
annote = {e2019GL086259 2019GL086259},
author = {Hawkins, E and Frame, D and Harrington, L and Joshi, M and King, A and Rojas, M and Sutton, R},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086259},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {emergence,extremes,observations,rainfall,signal-to-noise,temperature},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {e2019GL086259},
title = {{Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL086259 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL086259},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hayes2020,
author = {Hayes, Felicity and Sharps, Katrina and Harmens, Harry and Roberts, Ieuan and Mills, Gina},
doi = {10.1111/jac.12376},
issn = {0931-2250},
journal = {Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {214--228},
title = {{Tropospheric ozone pollution reduces the yield of African crops}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jac.12376},
volume = {206},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Heaney2019,
abstract = {Physical activity is one of the best disease prevention strategies, and it is influenced by environmental factors such as temperature. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to illuminate the relation between ambient temperature and bikeshare usage and to project how climate change-induced increasing ambient temperatures may influence active transportation in New York City. METHODS: The analysis leverages Citi Bike{\textregistered} bikeshare data to estimate participation in outdoor bicycling in New York City. Exposure–response functions are estimated for the relation between daily temperature and bike usage from 2013 to 2017. The estimated exposure–response relation is combined with temperature outputs from 21 climate models (run with emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to explore how climate change may influence future bike utilization. RESULTS: Estimated daily hours and distance ridden significantly increased as temperatures increased, but then declined at temperatures above 26–28°C. Bike usage may increase by up to 3.1{\%} by 2070 due to climate change. Future ridership increases during the winter, spring, and fall may more than offset future declines in summer ridership. DISCUSSION: Evidence suggesting nonlinear impacts of rising temperatures on health-promoting bicycle ridership demonstrates how challenging it is to anticipate the health consequences of climate change. We project increases in bicycling by mid-century in NYC, but this trend may reverse as temperatures continue to rise further into the future. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4039.},
author = {Heaney, Alexandra K. and Carri{\'{o}}n, Daniel and Burkart, Katrin and Lesk, Corey and Jack, Darby},
doi = {10.1289/EHP4039},
issn = {0091-6765},
journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {037002},
publisher = {Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services},
title = {{Climate Change and Physical Activity: Estimated Impacts of Ambient Temperatures on Bikeshare Usage in New York City}},
url = {https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/EHP4039},
volume = {127},
year = {2019}
}
@misc{Hellberg2016,
abstract = {According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Over the coming century, warming trends such as increased duration and frequency of heat waves and hot extremes are expected in some areas, as well as increased intensity of some storm systems. Climate-induced trends will impact the persistence and dispersal of foodborne pathogens in myriad ways, especially for environmentally ubiquitous and/or zoonotic microorganisms. Animal hosts of foodborne pathogens are also expected to be impacted by climate change through the introduction of increased physiological stress and, in some cases, altered geographic ranges and seasonality. This review article examines the effects of climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, drought and wind, on the environmental dispersal and persistence of bacterial foodborne pathogens, namely, Bacillus cereus, Brucella, Campylobacter, Clostridium, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio and Yersinia enterocolitica. These relationships are then used to predict how future climatic changes will impact the activity of these microorganisms in the outdoor environment and associated food safety issues. The development of predictive models that quantify these complex relationships will also be discussed, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on transmission of foodborne disease from animal hosts.},
author = {Hellberg, Rosalee S. and Chu, Eric},
booktitle = {Critical Reviews in Microbiology},
doi = {10.3109/1040841X.2014.972335},
issn = {15497828},
keywords = {Climate change,food safety,foodborne pathogens,predictive models,zoonotic pathogens},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {548--572},
pmid = {25612827},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis Ltd},
title = {{Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review}},
volume = {42},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hemer2013a,
author = {Hemer, M. A. and McInnes, K. L. and Ranasinghe, R.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3537},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {climate change,eastern Australia,ocean waves},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {1615--1632},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Projections of climate change-driven variations in the offshore wave climate off south eastern Australia}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3537},
volume = {33},
year = {2013}
}
@article{10.1525/hsns.2016.46.2.207,
abstract = {During the late 1970s, some members of the United States Congress introduced seminal legislation to ameliorate what they believed to be the economic costs of climatic change. Concerned that American society had become too sensitive to the stresses of even minor climatic fluctuations as manifest in recent weather-related crises, many felt that congressional legislation was necessary to foster greater cooperation between various groups—state climatologists; agricultural researchers; local, state, and federal policy makers; private and public industries. The hope was that greater coordination of the nation's economic and scientific resources would stimulate a more flexible and resilient society, while allowing the implementation of a more service-driven approach to climate governance. Despite congressional urgency, however, the Carter Administration—specifically the Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Science and Technology Policy—challenged congressional efforts on the grounds that accommodating user needs was both scientifically unjustified and politically irresponsible. Relying heavily on what officials perceived to be the collective judgment of federal science administrators and agency heads, the Administration favored instead a more research-oriented climate program committed to improving the reliability of climate prediction and more effectively coordinating a national response. Even after President Carter reluctantly signed the National Climate Program Act in September 1978, the Administration nonetheless persisted in its effort to stifle the implementation of a service-oriented program.},
author = {Henderson, Gabriel},
doi = {10.1525/hsns.2016.46.2.207},
issn = {1939-1811},
journal = {Historical Studies in the Natural Sciences},
number = {2},
pages = {207--242},
title = {{Governing the Hazards of Climate: The Development of the National Climate Program Act, 1977–1981}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1525/hsns.2016.46.2.207},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Hennessy2007,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Hennessy, K. and Fitzharris, B. and Bates, B.C. and Harvey, N. and Howden, S.M. and Hughes, L. and Salinger, J. and Warric, R.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
editor = {Parry, M.L. and Canziani, O.F. and Palutikof, J.P. and van der Linden, P.J. and Hanson, C.E.},
isbn = {9780521880107},
pages = {507--540},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Australia and New Zealand}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg2},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Henson2017,
abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter ocean ecology, and to potentially impact the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here, the authors address how rapidly multiple factors that affect marine ecosystems are likely to develop in the future ocean and the remedial effects climate mitigation might have.},
author = {Henson, Stephanie A. and Beaulieu, Claudie and Ilyina, Tatiana and John, Jasmin G. and Long, Matthew and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland and Tjiputra, Jerry and Sarmiento, Jorge L.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms14682},
isbn = {2041-1723},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {apr},
number = {1},
pages = {14682},
pmid = {28267144},
title = {{Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14682},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{HERMIDA2015174,
author = {Hermida, Luc{\'{i}}a and L{\'{o}}pez, Laura and Merino, Andr{\'{e}}s and Berthet, Claude and Garc{\'{i}}a-Ortega, Eduardo and S{\'{a}}nchez, Jos{\'{e}} Luis and Dessens, Jean},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.01.005},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Cluster,Hail,NAO,Precipitation,Trend,Wavelet},
month = {apr},
pages = {174--188},
title = {{Hailfall in southwest France: Relationship with precipitation, trends and wavelet analysis}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809515000228 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809515000228},
volume = {156},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Herold2018a,
abstract = {The negative impacts of climate extremes on socioeconomic sectors in Australia makes understanding their behaviour under future climate change necessary for regional planning. Providing robust and actionable climate information at regional scales relies on the downscaling of global climate model data and its translation into impact-relevant information. The New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project contains downscaled climate data over all of Australia at a 50 km resolution, with ensembles of simulations for the recent past (1990–2009), near future (2020–2039) and far future (2060–2079). Here we calculate and examine sector-relevant indices of climate extremes recommended by the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI). We demonstrate the utility of NARCliM and the ET-SCI indices in understanding how future changes in climate extremes could impact aspects of the health and agricultural sectors in Australia. Consistent with previous climate projections, our results indicate that increases in heat and drought related extremes throughout the 21st century will occur. In the far future, maximum day time temperatures are projected to increase by up to 3.5 °C depending on season and location. The number of heatwaves and the duration of the most intense heatwaves will increase significantly in the near and far future, with greater increases in the north than south. All capital cities are projected to experience at least a tripling of heatwave days each year by the far future, compared to the recent past. Applying published heat-health relationships to projected changes in temperature shows that increases in mortality due to high temperatures for all cities examined would occur if projected future climates occurred today. Drought and the number of days above 30 °C are also projected to increase over the major wheat-growing regions of the country, particularly during spring when sensitivity of wheat to heat stress is greatest. Assuming no adaptation or acclimatisation, published statistical relationships between drought and national wheat yield suggest that national yields will have a less than one quarter chance of exceeding the annual historical average under far future precipitation change (excluding impacts of future temperature change and CO2fertilization). The NARCliM data examined here, along with the ET-SCI indices calculated, provide a powerful and publicly available dataset for regional planning against future changes in climate extremes.},
author = {Herold, N. and Ekstr{\"{o}}m, M. and Kala, J. and Goldie, J. and Evans, J. P.},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2018.01.001},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Agriculture,Australia,Climate extremes,Climate impacts,Health},
month = {jun},
pages = {54--68},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Australian climate extremes in the 21st century according to a regional climate model ensemble: Implications for health and agriculture}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209471730169X},
volume = {20},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Heron2016b,
abstract = {Coral reefs across the world's oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world's reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985–2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale ({\~{}}4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97{\%} show positive SST trends during the study period with 60{\%} warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the ‘winter' reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985–91 and 2006–12 – a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress.},
author = {Heron, Scott F. and Maynard, Jeffrey A. and van Hooidonk, Ruben and Eakin, C. Mark},
doi = {10.1038/srep38402},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Environmental impact,Physical oceanography},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {38402},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World's Coral Reefs 1985–2012}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep38402},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Herrera2017,
abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of drought in the Caribbean. Understanding drought variability and its trends is therefore critical for improving resiliency and adaptation capacity of this region, as well as for assessing the dynamics and predictability of regional hydroclimate across spatial and temporal scales. This work introduces a first of its kind high-resolution drought dataset for the Caribbean region from 1950 to 2016, using monthly estimates of the ‘‘self calibrating'' Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), with the physically based Penman–Monteith approximation for the potential evapotranspiration. Statistically downscaled data products, including reanalysis, are employed to establish an historical baseline for characterizing drought from 1950 to the near present. Since 1950, the Caribbean has been affected by severe droughts in 1974–77, 1997/98, 2009/10, and 2013–16. Results indicate that the 2013–16 drought is the most severe event during the time interval analyzed in this work, which agrees with qualitative reports of many meteorological institutions across the Caribbean. Linear trends in the scPDSI show a significant drying in the study area, averaging an scPDSI change of 20.09 decade21 ( p , 0.05). However, this trend is not homogenous, and significant trends toward wetter conditions in portions of the study area were observed. Results further indicate a strong influence of both tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans in modulating drought variability across the study domain. Finally, this effort is the first step in building high-resolution drought products for the Caribbean to be updated regularly, with the purpose of drought monitoring and eventually seasonal drought prediction.},
author = {Herrera, Dimitris and Ault, Toby},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0838.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
pages = {7801--7825},
title = {{Insights from a New High-Resolution Drought Atlas for the Caribbean Spanning 1950–2016}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Herrera-Pantoja2015,
author = {Herrera-Pantoja, M. and Hiscock, K.M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2015.06.020},
issn = {14629011},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Policy},
month = {dec},
pages = {81--89},
title = {{Projected impacts of climate change on water availability indicators in a semi-arid region of central Mexico}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901115300228},
volume = {54},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Herring2018,
abstract = {This sixth edition of explaining extreme events of the previous year (2016) from a climate perspective is the first of these reports to find that some extreme events were not possible in a preindustrial climate. The events were the 2016 record global heat, the heat across Asia, as well as a marine heat wave off the coast of Alaska. While these results are novel, they were not unexpected. Climate attribution scientists have been predicting that eventually the influence of human-caused climate change would become sufficiently strong as to push events beyond the bounds of natural variability alone. It was also predicted that we would first observe this phenomenon for heat events where the climate change influence is most pronounced. Additional retrospective analysis will reveal if, in fact, these are the first events of their kind or were simply some of the first to be discovered. Last year, the editors emphasized the need for additional papers in the area of “impacts attribution” that investigate whether climate change's influence on the extreme event can subsequently be directly tied to a change in risk of the socio-economic or environmental impacts. Several papers in this year's report address this challenge, including Great Barrier Reef bleaching, living marine resources in the Pacific, and ecosystem productivity on the Iberian Peninsula. This is an increase over the number of impact attribution papers than in the past, and are hopefully a sign that research in this area will continue to expand in the future. Other extreme weather event types in this year's edition include ocean heat waves, forest fires, snow storms, and frost, as well as heavy precipitation, drought, and extreme heat and cold events over land. There were a number of marine heat waves examined in this year's report, and all but one found a role for climate change in increasing the severity of the events. While humancaused climate change caused China's cold winter to be less likely, it did not influence U.S. storm Jonas which hit the mid-Atlantic in winter 2016. As in past years, the papers submitted to this report are selected prior to knowing the final results of whether human-caused climate change influenced the event. The editors have and will continue to support the publication of papers that find no role for human-caused climate change because of their scientific value in both assessing attribution methodologies and in enhancing our understanding of how climate change is, and is n{\ldots}},
author = {Herring, Stephanie C. and Christidis, Nikolaos and Hoell, Andrew and Kossin, James P. and Schreck, Carl J. and Stott, Peter A.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2016.1},
isbn = {0003-0007},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {S1--S157},
pmid = {9609829},
title = {{Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2016.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hettiarachchi2018,
author = {Hettiarachchi, Suresh and Wasko, Conrad and Sharma, Ashish},
doi = {10.5194/hess-22-2041-2018},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {2041--2056},
title = {{Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed – the role of storm temporal patterns}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/2041/2018/},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hewer2019,
abstract = {Lake Ontario ice conditions are statistically linked to regional temperatures recorded in Toronto, during the most recent climate normal (1980/81–2009/10). A metric was developed to capture the net melting effect of average winter temperatures to characterize lake ice conditions, referred to as Net Melting-Degree Days (NMDD). This metric was able to account for 78{\%} of lake ice interannual variability (R2 = 0.783, P {\textless} 0.001). Based on NMDD parameters, current lake ice conditions were characterized in four ways: heavy, moderate, light and very light. Lake Ontario ice conditions were reconstructed to create a hindcast for the span of the instrumental temperature record (1840/41–1979/80). Based on a decadal analysis, heavy ice seasons decreased significantly (R2 = 0.658, P {\textless} 0.001) from the 1840s to the 2000s, declining from an average of 6 heavy ice seasons per decade during the most distant climate normal (1840s to 1960s) to an average of only 1 heavy ice season per decade during the most recent climate normal (1980s to 2000s). Finally, lake ice conditions are projected to the end of the 21st century, using an optimal ensemble of Global Climate Model outputs for two different climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Heavy ice seasons no longer occur as early as the 2050s under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Whereas, very light ice seasons go from being an extreme in the baseline period (10{\%}), to the dominant characterization of Lake Ontario ice conditions by the 2080s, for both RCP4.5 (73{\%}) and RCP8.5 (100{\%}).},
author = {Hewer, Micah J. and Gough, William A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jglr.2019.10.006},
issn = {03801330},
journal = {Journal of Great Lakes Research},
keywords = {Climate change projections,Freezing-degree days,Hindcasting,Lake ice,Melting-degree days,Winter temperatures},
month = {dec},
number = {6},
pages = {1080--1089},
publisher = {International Association of Great Lakes Research},
title = {{Lake Ontario ice coverage: Past, present and future}},
volume = {45},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hewitson2017a,
abstract = {The climate change agenda is populated by actors and agencies with different objectives, values, and motivations, yet many seek decision scale climate information to inform policy and adaptation responses. A central element of this network of activity is the climate information website (CIW) that has seen a rapid and organic growth, yet with variable content and quality, and unfettered by any code of practice. This builds an ethical?epistemic dilemma that warrants assessment as the presence of CIWs contribute to real-world consequences and commitment. This study considers the context of CIW growth, and reviews a representative sample of CIWs to draw out key issues for consideration in CIW development. We assess content, function, and use-case value through a dual approach of a typology and user experience narratives to evaluate the general efficacy of a CIW. The typology reveals strong contrasts in content, complicated interfaces, and an overload of choice making it difficult to converge on a stable outcome. The narratives capture user experience and highlight barriers that include navigation difficulties, jargon laden content, minimal or opaque guidance, and inferred information without context about uncertainty and limits to skill. This illuminates four concerns: (1) the ethics of information provision in a context of real-world consequences; (2) interfaces that present barriers to achieving robust solutions; (3) weak capacity of both users and providers to identify information of value from the multimodel and multimethod data; and (4) inclusion of data that infer skill. Nonetheless, results provide a positive indication of a community of practice that is still maturing. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e470. doi: 10.1002/wcc.470 This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling {\textgreater} Knowledge Generation with Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change {\textgreater} Scenario Development and Application},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.470},
author = {Hewitson, Bruce and Waagsaether, Katinka and Wohland, Jan and Kloppers, Kate and Kara, Teizeen},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.470},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {5},
pages = {e470},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Climate information websites: an evolving landscape}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.470},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hewitt2012,
abstract = {There is a growing and urgent need to improve society's resilience to climate-related hazards and better manage the risks and opportunities arising from climate variability and climate change.},
author = {Hewitt, Chris D and Mason, Simon and Walland, David},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1745},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {831--832},
title = {{The Global Framework for Climate Services}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1745},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Hewitt2017,
abstract = {To enable society to better manage the risks and opportunities arising from changes in climate, engagement between the users and the providers of climate information needs to be much more effective and should better link climate information with decision-making. T here is growing acceptance that the climate is changing, and increasing recognition and realization of the socio-economic benefits arising from using climate information to better inform decisions and policies across a wide range of sectors 1–3 . Climate services are being developed worldwide for an expanding group of decision-makers and policymakers to enable society to better manage the risks and opportunities arising from changes in climate, especially for those who are most vulnerable to climate-related hazards. The global community is actively addressing this through the United Nation's Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) 4,5 . An essential element of any climate service is for there to be effective engagement between the users and the providers of the service. However, there is growing recognition that this interface between the users and providers is the least-developed aspect of climate services 5 , and therefore urgently needs improving. An international team of experts has been enlisted under the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Commission for Climatology to both provide recommendations for good practice and successful strategies for effective and improved engagement. The recommendations were made by gathering and assessing examples of good uptake and use of climate information through effective user– provider engagement. Each example was documented using a common structure, identifying who is involved in the engagement, how the engagement is conducted, what it aims to achieve, and any recommendations for good practice. The examples represent a variety of approaches adopted across key climate-sensitive sectors, and across a range of timescales (the past and the future on timescales from monthly and seasonal through to multi-decadal) and spacial scales (global, regional, national and local, with wide geographic spread globally). A subset of examples was assessed in detail (Table 1; full descriptions in forthcoming WMO report Good Practices for Climate Services User Engagement) to lead to the recommendations presented below, with three broad categories of engagement (Fig. 1) identified and described in the following sections.},
author = {Hewitt, Chris D. and Stone, Roger C. and Tait, Andrew B.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3378},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {614--616},
title = {{Improving the use of climate information in decision-making}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3378},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0211.1,
abstract = {There is growing awareness among governments, businesses, and the general public of risks arising from changes to our climate on time scales from months through to decades. Some climatic changes could be unprecedented in their harmful socioeconomic impacts, while others with adequate forewarning and planning could offer benefits. There is therefore a pressing need for decision-makers, including policy-makers, to have access to and to use high-quality, accessible, relevant, and credible climate information about the past, present, and future to help make better-informed decisions and policies. We refer to the provision and use of such information as climate services. Established programs of research and operational activities are improving observations and climate monitoring, our understanding of climate processes, climate variability and change, and predictions and projections of the future climate. Delivering climate information (including data and knowledge) in a way that is usable and useful for decision-makers has had less attention, and society has yet to optimally benefit from the available information. While weather services routinely help weather-sensitive decision-making, similar services for decisions on longer time scales are less well established. Many organizations are now actively developing climate services, and a growing number of decision-makers are keen to benefit from such services. This article describes progress made over the past decade developing, delivering, and using climate services, in particular from the worldwide effort galvanizing around the Global Framework for Climate Services under the coordination of UN agencies. The article highlights challenges in making further progress and proposes potential new directions to address such challenges.},
author = {Hewitt, C D and Allis, E and Mason, S J and Muth, M and Pulwarty, R and Shumake-Guillemot, J and Bucher, A and Brunet, M and Fischer, A M and Hama, A M and Kolli, R K and Lucio, F and Ndiaye, O and Tapia, B},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0211.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {2},
pages = {E237--E252},
title = {{Making Society Climate Resilient: International Progress under the Global Framework for Climate Services}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0211.1},
volume = {101},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hewitt2020,
abstract = {Changes in climate pose major challenges to society, and so decision-makers need actionable climate information to inform their planning and policies to make society more resilient to climatic changes. Climate services are being developed to provide such actionable climate information. The successful development and use of climate services benefits greatly from close engagement between developers, providers, and users of the services. The Climate Science for Service Partnership China (CSSP China) is a China-UK collaboration fostering closer engagement between climate scientists, providers of climate services, and users of climate services. We describe the process within CSSP China of co-developing climate services through trials with users to revise and improve a prototype. Examples are provided covering various scientific capabilities, user needs, and parts of China. The development process is yielding many benefits, such as increasing the engagement between providers and users, making users more aware of how climate information can be of use in their decision-making, giving the climate service providers a better understanding of the users' requirements for climate information, and shaping future scientific research and development. In addition to the benefits, we also document some challenges that have emerged, along with ways of alleviating them. We have two key recommendations from our experiences: make the time and space for effective engagement between the users and developers of any climate service; bring the needs of the users in to the design and delivery of the climate service as early as possible and throughout the development cycle.},
author = {Hewitt, Chris D and Golding, Nicola and Zhang, Peiqun and Dunbar, Tyrone and Bett, Philip E and Camp, Joanne and Mitchell, Timothy D and Pope, Edward},
doi = {10.1007/s13351-020-0042-6},
issn = {2198-0934},
journal = {Journal of Meteorological Research},
number = {5},
pages = {893--903},
title = {{The Process and Benefits of Developing Prototype Climate Services – Examples in China}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-0042-6},
volume = {34},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Hewitt2018a,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Hewitt, Chris D and Lowe, Jason A},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0022.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
language = {English},
number = {10},
pages = {1997--2001},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Toward a European Climate Prediction System}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/10/bams-d-18-0022.1.xml},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hewitt2018,
author = {Hewitt, Chris and Golding, Nicola},
doi = {10.1007/s00376-018-7255-y},
issn = {0256-1530},
journal = {Advances in Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {905--908},
title = {{Development and Pull-through of Climate Science to Services in China}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-7255-y http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00376-018-7255-y},
volume = {35},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hewitt2020a,
abstract = {Climate observations, research, and models are used extensively to help understand key processes underlying changes to the climate on a range of time scales from months to decades, and to investigate and describe possible longer-term future climates. The knowledge generated serves as a scientific basis for climate services that are provided with the aim of tailoring information for decision-makers and policy-makers. Climate models and climate services are crucial elements for supporting policy and other societal actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and for making society better prepared and more resilient to climate-related risks. We present recommendations for future research topics for climate modeling and for climate services. These recommendations were produced by a group of experts in climate modeling and climate services, selected based on their individual leadership roles or participation in international activities. The recommendations were reached through extensive analysis, consideration and discussion of current and desired research capabilities, and wider engagement and refinement of the recommendations was achieved through a targeted workshop of initial recommendations and an open meeting at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly. The findings emphasize how research and innovation activities in the fields of climate modeling and climate services can contribute to improving climate knowledge and information with saliency for users in order to enhance capacity to transition to a sustainable and resilient society. The findings are relevant worldwide but are deliberately intended to influence the European Commission's next major multi-annual framework program of research and innovation over the period 2021–27.},
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Hewitt, C D and Guglielmo, F and Joussaume, S and Bessembinder, J and Christel, I and Doblas-Reyes, F J and Djurdjevic, V and Garrett, N and Kjellstr{\"{o}}m, E and Krzic, A and Costa, M M{\'{a}}{\~{n}}ez and {St. Clair}, A L},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0103.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
language = {English},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {E578--E588},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Recommendations for Future Research Priorities for Climate Modeling and Climate Services}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/bamsD200103/bamsD200103.xml https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/3/BAMS-D-20-0103.1.xml},
volume = {102},
year = {2021}
}
@article{10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0012.1,
author = {Hewitt, Chris D and Buontempo, Carlo and Newton, Paula and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco and Jochumsen, Kerstin and Quadfasel, Detlef},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0012.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {7},
pages = {1503--1506},
title = {{Climate Observations, Climate Modeling, and Climate Services}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0012.1},
volume = {98},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hidalgo2017,
abstract = {High spatial resolution of precipitation (P) and average air temperature (Tavg) datasets are ideal for determining the spatial patterns associated with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indexes, and climate change and variability studies, however such datasets are not usually available. Those datasets are particularly important for Central America because they allow the conception of climate variability and climate change studies in a region of high climatic heterogeneity and at the same time aid the decisionmaking process at the local scale (municipalities and districts). Tavg data from stations and complementary gridded datasets at 50 km resolution were used to generate a high-resolution (5 km grid) dataset for Central America from 1970 to 1999. A highresolution P dataset was used along with the new Tavg dataset to study climate variability and a climate change application. Consistently with other studies, it was found that the 1970-1999 trends in P are generally non-significant, with the exception of a few small locations. In the case of Tavg, there were significant warming trends in most of Central America, and cooling trends in Honduras and northern Panama. When the sea surface temperature anomalies between the Tropical Pacific and the Tropical Atlantic have different (same) sign, they are a good indicator of the sign of P (Tavg) annual anomalies. Even with non-significant trends in precipitation, the significant warming trends in Tavg in most of Central America can have severe consequences in the hydrology and water availability of the region, as the warming would bring increases in evapotranspiration, drier soils and higher aridity.},
author = {Hidalgo, H.G. and Alfaro, E.J. and Quesada-Montano, B.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1786-y},
isbn = {1573-1480},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {13--28},
title = {{Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1786-y},
volume = {141},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hill2014,
author = {Hill, Ryan A. and Hawkins, Charles P. and Jin, Jiming},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1174-4},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {399--412},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Predicting thermal vulnerability of stream and river ecosystems to climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1174-4},
volume = {125},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Hincapie2013,
abstract = {Vegetation change under two climate change scenarios in different periods of the 21 st Century are modeled for Colombia. Vegetation for the years 1970 to 2000 was reproduced using the Holdridge model with climate data with a spatial resolution of 900 meters. The vegetation types that occupied the most territory were sub-humid tropical forest, tropical dry forest and Andean wet forest. These results were validated by comparing with the Colombian ecosystem map (SINA, 2007), which confirmed a high degree of similarity between the modeled spatial vegetation patterns and modern ecosystem distributions. Future vegetation maps were simulated using data generated by a regional climate model under two scenarios (A2 and B2; IPCC, 2007) for the periods 2011-2040 and 2070-2100. Based on our predictions high altitude vegetation will convert to that of lower altitudes and drier provinces with the most dramatic change occurring in the A2 scenario from 2070-2100. The most affected areas are the p{\'{a}}ramo and other high Andean vegetation types, which in the timeframe of the explored scenarios will disappear by the middle of the 21 st Century.},
author = {Hincapie, Juan Carlos Alarcon and Caicedo, Jos{\'{e}} Daniel Pab{\'{o}}n},
doi = {10.14483/udistrital.jour.colomb.for.2013.2.a04},
file = {::},
issn = {2256-201X},
journal = {Colombia forestal},
keywords = {cambio clim{\'{a}}tico Colombia,cambios en la vegetaci{\'{o}}n de Colombia,impactos de las formaciones vegetales en Colombia},
month = {jul},
number = {2},
pages = {171--185},
title = {{El cambio clim{\'{a}}tico y la distribuci{\'{o}}n espacial de las formaciones vegetales en Colombia}},
url = {http://revistas.udistrital.edu.co/ojs/index.php/colfor/article/view/4719},
volume = {16},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hinkel2013,
author = {Hinkel, Jochen and Nicholls, Robert J. and Tol, Richard S.J. and Wang, Zheng B. and Hamilton, Jacqueline M. and Boot, Gerben and Vafeidis, Athanasios T. and McFadden, Loraine and Ganopolski, Andrey and Klein, Richard J.T.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002},
isbn = {0921-8181; 1872-6364},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {Beach nourishment,Climate adaptation,Climate impacts,Erosion,Sandy beaches,Tourism},
month = {dec},
pages = {150--158},
pmid = {24118034},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818113002026},
volume = {111},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hinkel2018,
author = {Hinkel, Jochen and Aerts, Jeroen C J H and Brown, Sally and Jim{\'{e}}nez, Jose A and Lincke, Daniel and Nicholls, Robert J and Scussolini, Paolo and Sanchez-Arcilla, Agust{\'{i}}n and Vafeidis, Athanasios and Addo, Kwasi Appeaning},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0176-z},
issn = {1758-6798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {7},
pages = {570--578},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise}},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hirabayashi2013a,
abstract = {Flood risk is expected to increase as the climate warms. This study, for the first time, uses several climate models to estimate the global risk of flooding at the end of the century. Projections show a large increase in flood frequency in some areas, whereas other regions can expect a decrease. Vulnerability is dependent on the degree of warming and the interannual variability in precipitation.},
author = {Hirabayashi, Yukiko and Mahendran, Roobavannan and Koirala, Sujan and Konoshima, Lisako and Yamazaki, Dai and Watanabe, Satoshi and Kim, Hyungjun and Kanae, Shinjiro},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1911},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Hydrology,Projection and prediction,change impacts},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {816--821},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Global flood risk under climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1911},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hixson2016,
abstract = {Phytoplankton are the main source of energy and omega-3 (n-3) long-chain essential fatty acids (EFA) in aquatic ecosystems. Their growth and biochemical composition are affected by surrounding environmental conditions, including temperature, which continues to increase as a result of climate warming. Increasing water temperatures may negatively impact the production of EFA by phytoplankton through the process of homeoviscous adaptation. To investigate this, we conducted an exploratory data synthesis with 952 fatty acid (FA) profiles from six major groups of marine and freshwater phytoplankton. Temperature was strongly correlated with a decrease in the proportion of n-3 long-chain polyunsaturated FA (LC-PUFA) and an increase in omega-6 FA and saturated FA. Based on linear regression models, we predict that global n-3 LC-PUFA production will be reduced by 8.2{\%} for eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and 27.8{\%} for docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with an increase in water temperature of 2.5 °C. Using a previously published estimate of the global production of EPA by diatoms, which contribute to most of the world's supply of EPA, we predict a loss of 14.2 Mt of EPA annually as a result of ocean warming. The n-3 LC-PUFA are vitally important for an array of key physiological functions in aquatic and terrestrial organisms, and these FA are mainly produced by phytoplankton. Therefore, reduced production of these EFA, as a consequence of climate warming, is predicted to negatively affect species that depend on these compounds for optimum physiological function. Such profound changes in the biochemical composition of phytoplankton cell membranes can lead to cascading effects throughout the world's ecosystems.},
author = {Hixson, Stefanie M. and Arts, Michael T.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13295},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {climate change,docosahexaenoic acid,eicosapentaenoic acid,global warming,omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {2744--2755},
pmid = {27070119},
title = {{Climate warming is predicted to reduce omega-3, long-chain, polyunsaturated fatty acid production in phytoplankton}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27070119 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13295},
volume = {22},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hjort2018,
abstract = {Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70{\%} of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45{\%} of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached.},
author = {Hjort, Jan and Karjalainen, Olli and Aalto, Juha and Westermann, Sebastian and Romanovsky, Vladimir E. and Nelson, Frederick E. and Etzelm{\"{u}}ller, Bernd and Luoto, Miska},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {5147},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07557-4},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@book{Ho2017,
abstract = {Many countries are increasingly threatened by major landslide disasters and fatalities due to extreme weather events which have major implications for public safety and the sustainability of infrastructure and the built environment. A further increase in such a trend could come from climate change. This book helps to fill in the gap due to the fact that landslide hazards are commonly not covered under the policy debate on climate change. The book highlights the importance of raising awareness to the challenges of landslide hazards due to climate impact. It provides a holistic frame for understanding the key issues and new tools that could be used to assess and manage the landslide risks.The book gathers contributions from 21 countries and regions in the form of national reports or summaries with respect to four key aspects: a) the methods used for evaluating changing weather and changing landslide patterns; b) the changing weather patterns; c) the changing landslide patterns and hazard scenarios; d) the applications to risk management and the formulation of adaptation measures. Recommendations are made for enhanced preparedness and resilience. Improved crisis management and areas for future work are suggested.},
address = {London, UK},
author = {Ho, Ken and Lacasse, Suzanne and Picarelli, Luciano},
doi = {10.1201/9781315387789},
editor = {Ho, Ken and Lacasse, Suzanne and Picarelli, Luciano},
isbn = {9780367885533},
month = {jun},
pages = {590},
publisher = {CRC Press},
title = {{Slope Safety Preparedness for Impact of Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9781315387772},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hoa2018,
author = {Hoa, Eric;},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2018.08.001},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {aug},
pages = {86--88},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{From generating to using climate services – how the EU-MACS and MARCO projects help to unlock the market potential}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880718300815},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hobday2016a,
abstract = {Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Ni{\~{n}}o' in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena.},
author = {Hobday, Alistair J. and Alexander, Lisa V. and Perkins, Sarah E. and Smale, Dan A. and Straub, Sandra C. and Oliver, Eric C.J. and Benthuysen, Jessica A. and Burrows, Michael T. and Donat, Markus G. and Feng, Ming and Holbrook, Neil J. and Moore, Pippa J. and Scannell, Hillary A. and {Sen Gupta}, Alex and Wernberg, Thomas},
doi = {10.1016/J.POCEAN.2015.12.014},
issn = {0079-6611},
journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
month = {feb},
pages = {227--238},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661116000057},
volume = {141},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hochman2018,
abstract = {The eastern Mediterranean (EM) is expected to be influenced by climate changes that will significantly affect ecosystems, human health and socio-economic aspects. One aspect of climate change in this vulnerable area is the length of the seasons, especially that of the rainy winter season against the warm and dry summer. Here, the synoptic seasons? definition of Alpert, Osetinsky, Ziv, and Shafir (2004a) was applied to an ensemble of eight Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, to predict the changes in the lengths of EM seasons during the 21st century. It is shown that the ensemble adequately represents the annual cycle of the main synoptic systems over the EM. The analysis further suggests that at the end of the 21st century, the duration of the synoptic summer, characterized by the occurrence of the Persian Trough, is expected to be lengthened by 49{\%}, while the synoptic winter, characterized by the occurrence of the Cyprus Low, is expected to be shortened by 56{\%} under the RCP8.5 scenario. This may lead to substantial changes in the hydrological regime and water resources, reduce the potential of dry farming, increase the risk of fires and air pollution and change the timing of seasonal health hazards.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/joc.5448},
author = {Hochman, Assaf and Harpaz, Tzvi and Saaroni, Hadas and Alpert, Pinhas},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5448},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {CMIP5,Cyprus Low,Persian Trough,Red Sea Trough,Sharav Low,season definition,synoptic classification},
month = {may},
number = {6},
pages = {2627--2637},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The seasons' length in 21st century CMIP5 projections over the eastern Mediterranean}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5448},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{HockR.Rasul2019,
author = {Hock, R. and Rasul, G. and Adler, C. and C{\'{a}}ceres, B. and Gruber, S. and Hirabayashi, Y. and Jackson, M. and K{\"{a}}{\"{a}}b, A. and Kang, S. and Kutuzov, S. and Milner, Al. and Molau, U. and Morin, S. and Orlove, B. and Steltzer, H.},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {131--202},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{High Mountain Areas}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hodgkins2019,
abstract = {Many studies have analyzed historical trends in annual peak flows in the United States because of the importance of flooding to bridges and other structures, and the concern that human influence may increase flooding. To help attribute causes of historical peak-flow changes, it is important to separate basins by characteristics that have different influences on peak flows. We analyzed historical trends by basin type: minimally altered basins, regulated basins (substantial reservoir storage but low urbanization), and urbanized basins (with low reservoir storage). Although many peak-flow magnitude changes were found in the last century across the conterminous United States, the trend magnitude and direction vary strongly by basin type and region. In general, there was a low percentage of significant increases and decreases for minimally altered basins while many regulated basins had significant decreases and the limited number of urbanized basins with long-term record showed a high percentage of increases. For urbanized basins, which are concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, trend magnitude was significantly correlated with the amount of basin urbanization. For all basins regardless of type, parts of the Northeast quadrant of the U.S. had high concentrations of basins with large and significant increases while parts of the Southwest quadrant had high concentrations of basins with large and significant decreases. Basin regulation appears to have heavily influenced the decreasing trends in the Southwest quadrant; there were many large decreases for this basin type despite overall increases in heavy precipitation in this area. Changes over time in the number of 2-per-year and 1-per-5-year peaks over threshold are consistent with changes in the magnitude of annual peak flows.},
author = {Hodgkins, G A and Dudley, R W and Archfield, S A and Renard, B},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.102},
issn = {0022-1694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
pages = {697--709},
title = {{Effects of climate, regulation, and urbanization on historical flood trends in the United States}},
volume = {573},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hoegh-Guldberg2017,
abstract = {Coral reefs are found in a wide range of environments, where they provide food and habitat to a large range of organisms as well as other ecological goods and services. Warm-water coral reefs, for example, occupy shallow sunlit, warm and alkaline waters in order to grow and calcify at the high rates necessary to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures. At deeper locations (40 – 150 m), “mesophotic” (low light) coral reefs accumulate calcium carbonate at much lower rates (if at all in some cases) yet remain important as habitat for a wide range of organisms, including those important for fisheries. Finally, even deeper, down to 2000 m or more, the so-called ‘cold-water' coral reefs are found in the dark depths. Despite their importance, coral reefs are facing significant challenges from human activities including pollution, over-harvesting, physical destruction, and climate change. In the latter case, even lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios (such as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 4.5) are likely drive the elimination of most warm-water coral reefs by 2040-2050. Cold-water corals are also threatened by warming temperatures and ocean acidification although evidence of the direct effect of climate change is less clear. Evidence that coral reefs can adapt at rates which are sufficient for them to keep up with rapid ocean warming and acidification is minimal, especially given that corals are long-lived and hence have slow rates of evolution. Conclusions that coral reefs will migrate to higher latitudes as they warm are equally unfounded, with the observations of tropical species appearing at high latitudes ‘necessary but not sufficient' evidence that entire coral reef ecosystems are shifting. On the contrary, coral reefs are likely to degrade rapidly over the next 20 years, presenting fundamental challenges for the 500 million people who derive food, income, coastal protection, and a range of other services from coral reefs. Unless rapid advances to the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement occur over the next decade, hundreds of millions of people are likely to face increasing amounts of poverty and social disruption, and, in some cases, regional insecurity.},
author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove and Poloczanska, Elvira S. and Skirving, William and Dove, Sophie},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2017.00158},
isbn = {2296-7745},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
keywords = {climate change,corals,ecosystems goods and servi},
month = {may},
number = {May},
pages = {158},
title = {{Coral Reef Ecosystems under Climate Change and Ocean Acidification}},
url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2017.00158/full},
volume = {4},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{IPCC2018,
author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove and Jacob, Daniela and Taylor, Michael and Bindi, Marco and Brown, Sally and Camilloni, Ines and Diedhiou, Arona and Djalante, Riyanti and Ebi, Kristie and Engelbrecht, Francois and Guangsheng, Zhou and Guiot, Joel and Hijioka, Yasuaki and Mehrotra, Shagun and Payne, Antony and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Thomas, Adelle and Warren, Rachel},
booktitle = {Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,},
chapter = {3},
editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P.R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and P{\'{e}}an, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M.I. and Lonnoy, E. and Maycock, T. and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.},
pages = {175--312},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hoegh-Guldberg2010,
abstract = {Marine ecosystems are centrally important to the biology of the planet, yet a comprehensive understanding of how anthropogenic climate change is affecting them has been poorly developed. Recent studies indicate that rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations are driving ocean systems toward conditions not seen for millions of years, with an associated risk of fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation. The impacts of anthropogenic climate change so far include decreased ocean productivity, altered food web dynamics, reduced abundance of habitat-forming species, shifting species distributions, and a greater incidence of disease. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the spatial and temporal details, climate change is clearly and fundamentally altering ocean ecosystems. Further change will continue to create enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide, particularly those in developing countries.},
author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove and Bruno, John F},
doi = {10.1126/science.1189930},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jun},
number = {5985},
pages = {1523--1528},
pmid = {20558709},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{The Impact of Climate Change on the World's Marine Ecosystems}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1189930},
volume = {328},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Hoeke2013,
abstract = {It is essential to understand the causes of sea level extremes in order to anticipate and respond to coastal flooding (inundation), and to adapt to sea level rise. We investigate a series of inundation events which occurred across the western Pacific over several consecutive days during December 2008, causing severe impacts to five Pacific Island nations. These events were not associated with commonly identified causes: tropical cyclones or unusually large astronomical tides. Instead, the dissipation of wind-waves generated by distant extra-tropical cyclones (swell) was the main cause, although regional sea level variability, including recent accelerated rise, significantly contributed to the severity of impact experienced at many locations. The implication of recent sea level rise in the severity of these events suggests that episodic swell will increasingly cause major impacts of the nature described herein, although such impacts will continue to be modulated by El Ni{\~{n}}o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the region. Significantly, tide gauges recorded little evidence of extreme sea levels during the event, implying that causes of extreme sea levels inferred from tide gauge analysis are unlikely to include this important cause of inundation. Therefore, any assessment of inundation risk predicated on tide gauge information (as well as larger scale sea level information such as satellite altimetry) may fail at many locations in the Pacific. To be accurate, such efforts must include information on the relationship between wave climate, wave forecasts and local extreme water levels. Further development of related early warning systems will become more pertinent as modern SLR continues to add to the magnitude of extremes. {\textcopyright} 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.},
author = {Hoeke, Ron K. and McInnes, Kathleen L. and Kruger, Jens C. and McNaught, Rebecca J. and Hunter, John R. and Smithers, Scott G.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.006},
isbn = {0921-8181},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {Disaster risk,El Ni{\~{n}}o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO),Flooding,Inundation,Pacific,Sea level,Storms,Waves},
month = {sep},
pages = {128--138},
publisher = {The Authors},
title = {{Widespread inundation of Pacific islands triggered by distant-source wind-waves}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.006 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818113001483},
volume = {108},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hof2016,
abstract = {With the expected rising temperatures, outbreaks of insect pests may be more frequent, which can have large consequences on forest ecosystems and may therefore negatively affect the forestry sector. In order to be better able to predict where, but not if, outbreaks may occur in future we investigated the potential future (2070) geographical distribution of 30 prospective insect pest species (Coleoptera and Lepidoptera) by applying species distribution modelling. We also assessed the geographical extent to which the boreal forest in Sweden may be affected. We found that numerous species may experience large increases in their potential distribution in future, which may result in outbreaks in “new” areas. It is therefore likely that more trees will be infested by pests in future, which may have large implications for the Swedish forestry sector.},
author = {Hof, Anouschka R. and Svahlin, Anna},
doi = {10.1080/02827581.2015.1052751},
issn = {16511891},
journal = {Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research},
keywords = {Norway spruce,Scots pine,climate change,forestry,insects,pests,species distribution modelling},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {29--39},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis AS},
title = {{The potential effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of insect pest species in the Swedish boreal forest}},
volume = {31},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Holding2016,
abstract = {The majority of naturally occurring freshwater on small islands is groundwater, which is primarily recharged by precipitation. Recharge rates are therefore likely to be impacted by climate change. Freshwater resources on small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change because they are limited in size and easily compromised. Here we have compiled available aquifer system characteristics and water-use data for 43 small island developing states distributed worldwide, based on local expert knowledge, publications and regional data sets. Current vulnerability was assessed by evaluating the recharge volume per capita. For future vulnerability, climate change projections were used to estimate changes in aquifer recharge. We find that 44{\%} of islands are in a state of water stress, and while recharge is projected to increase by as much as 117{\%} on 12 islands situated in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean, recharge is projected to decrease by up to 58{\%} on the remaining 31 islands. Of great concern is the lack of enacted groundwater protection legislation for many of the small island developing states identified as highly vulnerable to current and future conditions. Recharge indicators, shown alongside the state of legal groundwater protections, provide a global picture of groundwater supply vulnerability under current and future climate change conditions.},
author = {Holding, S. and Allen, D. M. and Foster, S. and Hsieh, A. and Larocque, I. and Klassen, J. and {Van Pelt}, S. C.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3128},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1100--1103},
title = {{Groundwater vulnerability on small islands}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3128},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Holland2014,
author = {Holland, Greg and Bruy{\`{e}}re, Cindy L.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {617--627},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Hong2019,
author = {Hong, Je-Woo and Hong, Jinkyu and Kwon, Eilhann E and Yoon, D.K.},
doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2019.07.102},
issn = {02697491},
journal = {Environmental Pollution},
month = {nov},
pages = {112934},
title = {{Temporal dynamics of urban heat island correlated with the socio-economic development over the past half-century in Seoul, Korea}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0269749119325217},
volume = {254},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hope2019a,
author = {Hope, Pandora and Black, Mitchell T and Lim, Eun-Pa and Dowdy, Andrew and Wang, Guomin and Fawcett, Robert J B and Pepler, Acacia S},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0135.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {1},
pages = {S111--S117},
title = {{On Determining the Impact of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 on the Record Fire Weather in Eastern Australia in February 2017}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0135.1},
volume = {100},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Horton2014,
abstract = {Poor air quality causes an estimated 2.6–4.4 million premature deaths per year1–3. Hazardous conditions form when meteorological components allow the accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere4–8. Global-warming-driven changes to atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle9–13 are expected to alter the meteorological components that control pollutant build-up and dispersal5–8,14, but the magnitude, direction, geographic footprint and public health impact of this alteration remain unclear7,8. We used an air stagnation index and an ensemble of bias-corrected climate model simulations to quantify the response of stagnation occurrence and persistence to global warming. Our analysis projects increases in stagnation occurrence that cover 55{\%} of the current global population, with areas of increase aecting ten times more people than areas of decrease. By the late twenty-first century, robust increases of up to 40 days per year are projected throughout the majority of the tropics and subtropics, as well as within isolated mid-latitude regions. Potential impacts over India, Mexico and the western US are particularly acute owing to the intersection of large populations and increases in the persistence of stagnation events, including those of extreme duration. These results indicate that anthropogenic climate change is likely to alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets.},
author = {Horton, Daniel E. and Skinner, Christopher B. and Singh, Deepti and Diffenbaugh, Noah S.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2272},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Environmental health},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {698--703},
pmid = {25309627},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2272},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Howarth2016,
abstract = {Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) review of how to make its Assessment Reports (ARs) more accessible in the future, the research reported here assesses the extent to which the ARs are a useful tool through which scientific advice informs local decision-making on climate change in the United Kingdom. Results from interviews with local policy representatives and three workshops with UK academics, practitioners and local decision makers are presented. Drawing on these data, we outline three key recommendations made by participants on how the IPCC ARs can be better utilized as a form of scientific advice to inform local decision-making on climate change. First, to provide more succinct summaries of the reports paying close attention to the language, content, clarity, context and length of these summaries; second, to better target and frame the reports from a local perspective to maximize engagement with local stakeholders; and third, to work with local decision makers to better understand how scientific advice on climate change is being incorporated in local decision-making. By adopting these, the IPCC would facilitate local decision-making on climate change and provide a systematic review of how its reports are being used locally. We discuss implications of these recommendations and their relevance to the wider debate within and outside the IPCC as to the most effective way the IPCC can more effectively tailor its products to user needs without endangering the robustness of its scientific findings. This article is published as part of a collection on scientific advice to governments.},
author = {Howarth, Candice and Painter, James},
doi = {10.1057/palcomms.2016.58},
issn = {2055-1045},
journal = {Palgrave Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {16058},
title = {{Exploring the science–policy interface on climate change: The role of the IPCC in informing local decision-making in the UK}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/palcomms201658},
volume = {2},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Howell2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Observed and modelled landfast ice thickness variability and trends spanning more than 5 decades within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) are summarized. The observed sites (Cambridge Bay, Resolute, Eureka and Alert) represent some of the Arctic's longest records of landfast ice thickness. Observed end-of-winter (maximum) trends of landfast ice thickness (1957–2014) were statistically significant at Cambridge Bay (−4.31 ± 1.4 cm decade−1), Eureka (−4.65 ± 1.7 cm decade−1) and Alert (−4.44 ± 1.6 cm −1) but not at Resolute. Over the 50+-year record, the ice thinned by ∼ 0.24–0.26 m at Cambridge Bay, Eureka and Alert with essentially negligible change at Resolute. Although statistically significant warming in spring and fall was present at all sites, only low correlations between temperature and maximum ice thickness were present; snow depth was found to be more strongly associated with the negative ice thickness trends. Comparison with multi-model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5), Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison (ORA-IP) and Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) show that although a subset of current generation models have a "reasonable" climatological representation of landfast ice thickness and distribution within the CAA, trends are unrealistic and far exceed observations by up to 2 orders of magnitude. ORA-IP models were found to have positive correlations between temperature and ice thickness over the CAA, a feature that is inconsistent with both observations and coupled models from CMIP5.},
author = {Howell, Stephen E. L. and Lalibert{\'{e}}, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Kwok, Ron and Derksen, Chris and King, Joshua},
doi = {10.5194/tc-10-1463-2016},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {1463--1475},
title = {{Landfast ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from observations and models}},
url = {https://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1463/2016/},
volume = {10},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Hoyos2013,
author = {Hoyos, N. and Escobar, J. and Restrepo, J.C. and Arango, A.M. and Ortiz, J.C.},
doi = {10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.11.018},
issn = {01436228},
journal = {Applied Geography},
month = {may},
pages = {16--25},
title = {{Impact of the 2010–2011 La Ni{\~{n}}a phenomenon in Colombia, South America: The human toll of an extreme weather event}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0143622812001610},
volume = {39},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hrbacek2018,
abstract = {Monitoring of active layer thawing depth and active layer thickness (ALT), using mechanical pronging and continuous temperature data logging, has been undertaken under the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring – South (CALM-S) program at a range of sites across Antarctica. The objective of this study was to summarize key data from sites in different Antarctic regions from 2006 to 2015 to review the state of the active layer in Antarctica and the effectiveness of the CALM-S program. The data from 16 sites involving 8 CALM-S and another 8 boreholes across the Antarctic have been used in the study. Probing for thaw depth, while giving information on local spatial variability, often underestimates the maximum ALT of Antarctic soils compared to that determined using continuous temperature monitoring. The differences are likely to be caused by stones limiting probe penetration and the timing of probing not coinciding with the timing of maximum thaw, which varies between seasons. The information on the active layer depth is still sparse in many regions and the monitoring needs to be extended and continued to provide a better understanding of both spatial and temporal variability in Antarctic soil thermal properties.},
author = {Hrb{\'{a}}{\v{c}}ek, Filip and Vieira, Goncalo and Oliva, Marc and Balks, Megan and Guglielmin, Mauro and de Pablo, Miguel {\'{A}}ngel and Molina, Antonio and Ramos, Miguel and Goyanes, Gabriel and Meiklejohn, Ian and Abramov, Andrey and Demidov, Nikita and Fedorov-Davydov, Dmitry and Lupachev, Alexey and Rivkina, Elizaveta and L{\'{a}}ska, Kamil and Kňa{\v{z}}kov{\'{a}}, Michaela and N{\'{y}}vlt, Daniel and Raffi, Rossana and Strelin, Jorge and Sone, Toshio and Fukui, Kotaro and Dolgikh, Andrey and Zazovskaya, Elya and Mergelov, Nikita and Osokin, Nikolay and Miamin, Vladislav},
doi = {10.1080/1088937X.2017.1420105},
issn = {1088-937X},
journal = {Polar Geography},
keywords = {Antarctica,CALM-S,active layer monitoring,active layer thickness,climate,ground temperature},
month = {jan},
number = {3},
pages = {217--234},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis Ltd.},
title = {{Active layer monitoring in Antarctica: an overview of results from 2006 to 2015}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1088937X.2017.1420105},
volume = {44},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Hu2015a,
author = {Hu, Feng Sheng and Higuera, Philip E and Duffy, Paul and Chipman, Melissa L and Rocha, Adrian V and Young, Adam M and Kelly, Ryan and Dietze, Michael C},
doi = {10.1890/150063},
issn = {1540-9295},
journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
month = {sep},
number = {7},
pages = {369--377},
title = {{Arctic tundra fires: natural variability and responses to climate change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/150063},
volume = {13},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Huang2016a,
author = {Huang, Jianping and Ji, Mingxia and Xie, Yongkun and Wang, Shanshan and He, Yongli and Ran, Jinjiang},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2636-8},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1131--1150},
title = {{Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years}},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Huang2014,
abstract = {AbstractBased on the outputs of historical and future representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments produced by 28 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), future changes in climatic mean, interannual standard deviation (ISD), and long-term trends of the annual precipitation over central Asia (CA) have been estimated. Under different emission scenarios during the twenty-first century, the climatic mean and ISD (long-term trends) of the annual precipitation over CA projected by the five best models' ensemble mean show very similar (quite different) spatial patterns to those in the twentieth century. Relatively stronger increasing rates (over 3 mm decade−1 in RCP2.6 and over 6 mm decade−1 in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are located over northern CA and the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Compared to the situations in the twentieth century, the climatic mean, ISD, and long-term trends of the projected annual precipitation over most of CA under different emission scenarios exhibi...},
author = {Huang, Anning and Zhou, Yang and Zhang, Yaocun and Huang, Danqing and Zhao, Yong and Wu, Haomin and Huang, Anning and Zhou, Yang and Zhang, Yaocun and Huang, Danqing and Zhao, Yong and Wu, Haomin},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00070.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6627--6646},
title = {{Changes of the Annual Precipitation over Central Asia in the Twenty-First Century Projected by Multimodels of CMIP5}},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Huang2017d,
author = {Huang, J and Li, Y. and Fu, C. and Chen, F and Fu, Q and Dai, A and Shinoda, M and Ma, Z and Guo, W and Li, Z and Zhang, L. and Liu, Y. and Yu, H. and He, Y. and Xie, Y. and Guan, X. and Ji, M. and Lin, L. and Wang, S. and Yan, H. and Wang, G.},
doi = {10.1002/2016RG000550},
issn = {87551209},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {719--778},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016RG000550},
volume = {55},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Huang2016b,
abstract = {Climate change is causing drylands to expand and this work shows that they will cover half of the land surface by 2100 under a moderate emissions scenario.},
author = {Huang, Jianping and Yu, Haipeng and Guan, Xiaodan and Wang, Guoyin and Guo, Ruixia},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2837},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Developing world,Projection and prediction},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {166--171},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2837},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Hubbard2008,
abstract = {The distribution of Holocene coral reefs around Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands reflects the tectonic history of the region. By best estimates, the present-day Caribbean formed between 200 and 130 million years (MY) ago, when North and South America pushed apart and Pacific crust moved northeastward (Pindell 1994). By late Cretaceous time (80 MY: Fig. 7.1), Caribbean plate motion was starting to turn eastward, the Aves Ridge (presently southeast of St. Croix ) was forming, and rudistid molluscs were the dominant reef fauna throughout the region (Fig. 7.2). By Oligocene time, the geography of the Caribbean looked much like it is today, and the Greater Antilles lay along a major fault separating the Caribbean and Atlantic plates. Caribbean coral reefs were populated by a much more cosmopolitan fauna than what exists today (Frost 1977; Frost and Weiss 1979). Throughout the Miocene, the Greater Antilles were being torn apart and twisted by both tensional and compressive forces between the opposing Caribbean and Atlantic Plates (Pindell and Barrett 1990; Masson and Scanlon 1991). This has resulted in a leftlateral offset of similar formations on different islands (e.g., the Ponce/Aymamon Formations on Puerto Rico and the Kingshill on St. Croix), as well as counterclockwise rotation of many individual islands (Reid et al. 1991; Gill et al. 2002). On both St. Croix and Puerto Rico, transtensional basins received shallow-water carbonates derived from shallow-water reefs of unknown origins.},
address = {Dordrecht, The Netherlands},
author = {Hubbard, DK and Burke, RB and Gill, IP},
booktitle = {Coral Reefs of the USA},
doi = {10.1007/978-1-4020-6847-8_7},
editor = {Riegl, Bernhard M. and Dodge, Richard E.},
isbn = {978-1-4020-6847-8},
number = {1977},
pages = {263--302},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Coral-reef geology: Puerto Rico and the US Virgin islands}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4020-6847-8{\_}7},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Hueging2013,
abstract = {The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.},
author = {Hueging, Hanna and Haas, Rabea and Born, Kai and Jacob, Daniela and Pinto, Joaquim G},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-12-086.1},
file = {::},
issn = {1558-8424},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {903--917},
title = {{Regional Changes in Wind Energy Potential over Europe Using Regional Climate Model Ensemble Projections}},
url = {http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Compact.jsp?acronym5 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-086.1},
volume = {52},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Hufkens2012,
author = {Hufkens, Koen and Friedl, Mark A. and Keenan, Trevor F. and Sonnentag, Oliver and Bailey, Amey and O'Keefe, John and Richardson, Andrew D.},
doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02712.x},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {carbon balance,elevational gradient,frost event,northern hardwood forest,phenology},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {2365--2377},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Ecological impacts of a widespread frost event following early spring leaf-out}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02712.x},
volume = {18},
year = {2012}
}
@article{VandeLeemput2017,
author = {Hughes, Terry P. and Barnes, Michele L. and Bellwood, David R. and Cinner, Joshua E. and Cumming, Graeme S. and Jackson, Jeremy B. C. and Kleypas, Joanie and van de Leemput, Ingrid A. and Lough, Janice M. and Morrison, Tiffany H. and Palumbi, Stephen R. and van Nes, Egbert H. and Scheffer, Marten},
doi = {10.1038/nature22901},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jun},
number = {7656},
pages = {82--90},
title = {{Coral reefs in the Anthropocene}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature22901},
volume = {546},
year = {2017}
}
@article{hughes2017global,
abstract = {During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.},
author = {Hughes, Terry P. and Kerry, James T. and {\'{A}}lvarez-Noriega, Mariana and {\'{A}}lvarez-Romero, Jorge G. and Anderson, Kristen D. and Baird, Andrew H. and Babcock, Russell C. and Beger, Maria and Bellwood, David R. and Berkelmans, Ray and Bridge, Tom C. and Butler, Ian R. and Byrne, Maria and Cantin, Neal E. and Comeau, Steeve and Connolly, Sean R. and Cumming, Graeme S. and Dalton, Steven J. and Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo and Eakin, C. Mark and Figueira, Will F. and Gilmour, James P. and Harrison, Hugo B. and Heron, Scott F. and Hoey, Andrew S. and Hobbs, Jean-Paul A. and Hoogenboom, Mia O. and Kennedy, Emma V. and Kuo, Chao-yang and Lough, Janice M. and Lowe, Ryan J. and Liu, Gang and McCulloch, Malcolm T. and Malcolm, Hamish A. and McWilliam, Michael J. and Pandolfi, John M. and Pears, Rachel J. and Pratchett, Morgan S. and Schoepf, Verena and Simpson, Tristan and Skirving, William J. and Sommer, Brigitte and Torda, Gergely and Wachenfeld, David R. and Willis, Bette L. and Wilson, Shaun K.},
doi = {10.1038/nature21707},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Climate,Marine biology,change ecology},
month = {mar},
number = {7645},
pages = {373--377},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature21707},
volume = {543},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Hughes2018a,
abstract = {Tropical reef systems are transitioning to a new era in which the interval between recurrent bouts of coral bleaching is too short for a full recovery of mature assemblages. We analyzed bleaching records at 100 globally distributed reef locations from 1980 to 2016. The median return time between pairs of severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years. As global warming has progressed, tropical sea surface temperatures are warmer now during current La Ni{\~{n}}a conditions than they were during El Ni{\~{n}}o events three decades ago. Consequently, as we transition to the Anthropocene, coral bleaching is occurring more frequently in all El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation phases, increasing the likelihood of annual bleaching in the coming decades.},
author = {Hughes, Terry P. and Anderson, Kristen D. and Connolly, Sean R. and Heron, Scott F. and Kerry, James T. and Lough, Janice M. and Baird, Andrew H. and Baum, Julia K. and Berumen, Michael L. and Bridge, Tom C. and Claar, Danielle C. and Eakin, C. Mark and Gilmour, James P. and Graham, Nicholas A. J. and Harrison, Hugo and Hobbs, Jean-Paul A. and Hoey, Andrew S. and Hoogenboom, Mia and Lowe, Ryan J. and McCulloch, Malcolm T. and Pandolfi, John M. and Pratchett, Morgan and Schoepf, Verena and Torda, Gergely and Wilson, Shaun K.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aan8048},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jan},
number = {6371},
pages = {80--83},
pmid = {29302011},
title = {{Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aan8048},
volume = {359},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Connolly2018a,
abstract = {Global warming is rapidly emerging as a universal threat to ecological integrity and function, highlighting the urgent need for a better understanding of the impact of heat exposure on the resilience of ecosystems and the people who depend on them1. Here we show that in the aftermath of the record-breaking marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef in 20162, corals began to die immediately on reefs where the accumulated heat exposure exceeded a critical threshold of degree heating weeks, which was 3–4 °C-weeks. After eight months, an exposure of 6 °C-weeks or more drove an unprecedented, regional-scale shift in the composition of coral assemblages, reflecting markedly divergent responses to heat stress by different taxa. Fast-growing staghorn and tabular corals suffered a catastrophic die-off, transforming the three-dimensionality and ecological functioning of 29{\%} of the 3,863 reefs comprising the world's largest coral reef system. Our study bridges the gap between the theory and practice of assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, under the emerging framework for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems3, by rigorously defining both the initial and collapsed states, identifying the major driver of change, and establishing quantitative collapse thresholds. The increasing prevalence of post-bleaching mass mortality of corals represents a radical shift in the disturbance regimes of tropical reefs, both adding to and far exceeding the influence of recurrent cyclones and other local pulse events, presenting a fundamental challenge to the long-term future of these iconic ecosystems.},
author = {Hughes, Terry P and Kerry, James T and Baird, Andrew H and Connolly, Sean R and Dietzel, Andreas and Eakin, C Mark and Heron, Scott F and Hoey, Andrew S and Hoogenboom, Mia O and Liu, Gang and McWilliam, Michael J. and Pears, Rachel J. and Pratchett, Morgan S. and Skirving, William J. and Stella, Jessica S. and Torda, Gergely},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0041-2},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {apr},
number = {7702},
pages = {492--496},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0041-2},
volume = {556},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Humphrey2018,
abstract = {Land ecosystems absorb on average 30 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, thereby slowing the increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere1. Year-to-year variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate are mostly due to fluctuating carbon uptake by land ecosystems1. The sensitivity of these fluctuations to changes in tropical temperature has been well documented2–6, but identifying the role of global water availability has proved to be elusive. So far, the only usable proxies for water availability have been time-lagged precipitation anomalies and drought indices3–5, owing to a lack of direct observations. Here, we use recent observations of terrestrial water storage changes derived from satellite gravimetry7 to investigate terrestrial water effects on carbon cycle variability at global to regional scales. We show that the CO2 growth rate is strongly sensitive to observed changes in terrestrial water storage, drier years being associated with faster atmospheric CO2 growth. We demonstrate that this global relationship is independent of known temperature effects and is underestimated in current carbon cycle models. Our results indicate that interannual fluctuations in terrestrial water storage strongly affect the terrestrial carbon sink and highlight the importance of the interactions between the water and carbon cycles.},
author = {Humphrey, Vincent and Zscheischler, Jakob and Ciais, Philippe and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Sitch, Stephen and Seneviratne, Sonia I},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0424-4},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7720},
pages = {628--631},
title = {{Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate to observed changes in terrestrial water storage}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0424-4},
volume = {560},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Hurlbert2019,
author = {Hurlbert, M. and Krishnaswamy, J. and Davin, E. and Johnson, F.X. and Mena, C.F. and Morton, J. and Myeong, S. and Viner, D. and Warner, K. and Wreford, A. and Zakieldeen, S. and Zommers, Z.},
booktitle = {Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems},
chapter = {7},
editor = {{P.R. Shukla} and Skea, J. and Buendia, E. Calvo and Masson-Delmotte, V. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Zhai, P. and Slade, R. and Connors, S. and van Diemen, R. and Ferrat, M. and Haughey, E. and Luz, S. and Neogi, S. and Pathak, M. and Petzold, J. and Pereira, J. Portugal and Vyas, P. and Huntley, E. and Kissick, K. and Belkacemi, M. and Malley, J.},
pages = {673--800},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Huss2018,
author = {Huss, Matthias and Hock, Regine},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {135--140},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0049-x},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{ICOMOS2019,
address = {Paris, France},
author = {ICOMOS},
file = {::},
pages = {110},
publisher = {International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS) Climate Change and Heritage Working Group},
title = {{The Future of Our Pasts: Engaging cultural heritage in climate action}},
url = {https://adobeindd.com/view/publications/a9a551e3-3b23-4127-99fd-a7a80d91a29e/g18m/publication-web-resources/pdf/CCHWG{\_}final{\_}print.pdf},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Im2017,
abstract = {The risk associated with any climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vul-nerability. Previous work has shown that a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C can be considered an upper limit on human survivability. On the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution climate change simulations, we project that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in South Asia are likely to approach and, in a few locations, exceed this critical threshold by the late 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions. The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural re-gions of the Ganges and Indus river basins. Climate change, without mitigation, presents a serious and unique risk in South Asia, a region inhabited by about one-fifth of the global human population, due to an unprecedented combination of severe natural hazard and acute vulnerability.},
author = {Im, Eun-Soon and Pal, Jeremy S. and Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1603322},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {e1603322},
pmid = {28782036},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia}},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1603322},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Im2020,
abstract = {The information of when and where region-specific patterns in both mean and extreme temperatures leading to heat stress will emerge from the present-day climate variability is important to plan adaptation options, but to date studies on this issue still remain limited and fragmented. Here, we estimate the time of emergence (TOE) of temperature and wet-bulb temperature (Tw), a better indication of heat stress, using fine-scale, long-term regional climate model projections under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios across six different domains. Differently from previous studies, the TOE is determined using three methods applied on impact-relevant variables: two different signal-to-noise frameworks based on summer mean temperature and Tw and a statistical test to identify significant differences in daily extreme distributions. The TOE response to RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with respect to the end of 20th century variability differs significantly regardless of which TOE metric is applied. For summer mean temperature, the land fraction reaching TOE is expected to exceed 90{\%} by the 2050s under the RCP8.5, whereas the increase rate of land exposure to TOE tends to stagnate over time under the RCP2.6 so that more than 40{\%} of land will not experience TOE by the end of the 21st century. Compared to temperature, the TOE of Tw is reached earlier in most of the wet tropics but is delayed in hot and dry regions because of the nonlinear response of Tw to humidity. For both temperature and Tw, the TOE appears earlier in regions with low baseline variability, such as in the tropics. Despite the uncertainties arising from the choice of TOE metrics, the vast majority of regions in Africa and southeast Asia experience TOE in the early 21st century under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which stresses the urgent need for developing adequate adaptation strategies in these regions.},
author = {Im, Eun-Soon and Thanh, Nguyen-Xuan and Qiu, Liying and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Gao, Xuejie and Yao, Tong and Torma, Csaba and Adeniyi, Mojisola O and Das, Sushant and Giuliani, Graziano and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05398-w},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1629--1644},
title = {{Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05398-w http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05398-w https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05398-w},
volume = {57},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Imada2018,
author = {Imada, Yukiko and Shiogama, Hideo and Takahashi, Chiharu and Watanabe, Masahiro and Mori, Masato and Kamae, Youichi and Maeda, Shuhei and Imada, Yukiko and Shiogama, Hideo and Takahashi, Chiharu and Watanabe, Masahiro and Mori, Masato and Kamae, Youichi and Shuhei, Maeda},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0109.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {S97--S101},
title = {{Climate Change Increased the Likelihood of the 2016 Heat Extremes in Asia}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0109.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Imada2019,
author = {Imada, Yukiko and Watanabe, Masahiro and Kawase, Hiroaki and Shiogama, Hideo and Arai, Miki},
doi = {10.2151/sola.15A-002},
issn = {1349-6476},
journal = {SOLA},
pages = {8--12},
publisher = {Meteorological Society of Japan},
title = {{The July 2018 High Temperature Event in Japan Could Not Have Happened without Human-Induced Global Warming}},
url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/15A/0/15A{\_}15A-002/{\_}article},
volume = {15A},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{IPBES2016,
abstract = {Infrastructure elements to produce microwave engineers and to promote microwave research and development in the Asia-Pacific region are described by active professors and researchers in this area as a multiauthor forum. The content of each description focuses mainly on the role of present-day universities, government, and industry},
address = {Bonn, Germany},
author = {IPBES},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.3402856},
editor = {Potts, S.G. and Imperatriz-Fonseca, V. L. and Ngo, H. T.},
pages = {552},
publisher = {Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services},
title = {{The assessment report of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on pollinators, pollination and food production}},
url = {https://www.ipbes.net/assessment-reports/pollinators},
year = {2016}
}
@techreport{IPCC2018,
author = {IPCC},
editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P.R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and P{\'{e}}an, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M.I. and Lonnoy, E. and Maycock, T. and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.},
pages = {616},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{IPCC2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324},
editor = {Stocker, T.F. and Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Allen, S.K. and Boschung, J. and Nauels, A. and Xia, Y. and Bex, V. and Midgley, P.M.},
isbn = {9781107661820},
pages = {1535},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1},
year = {2013}
}
@techreport{IPCC2014,
address = {Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA,},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415379},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Dokken, D.J. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058071},
pages = {1132},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@incollection{IPCC2012a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781139177245.003},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V. and Stocker, T.F. and Qin, D. and Dokken, D.J. and Ebi, K.L. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Mach, K.J. and Plattner, G.-K. and Allen, S.K. and Tignor, M. and Midgle, P.M.},
isbn = {9781107025066},
pages = {3--22},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Summary for Policymakers}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/managing-the-risks-of-extreme-events-and-disasters-to-advance-climate-change-adaptation},
year = {2012}
}
@techreport{IPCC2014b,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415386},
editor = {Barros, V.R. and Field, C.B. and Dokken, D.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Mach, K.J. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058163},
pages = {688},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@incollection{IPCC2019a,
author = {IPCC},
booktitle = {Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems},
editor = {Shukla, P.R. and Skea, J. and Buendia, E. Calvo and Masson-Delmotte, V. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.- O. and Roberts, D. C. and Zhai, P. and Slade, R. and Connors, S. and van Diemen, R. and Ferrat, M. and Haughey, E. and Luz, S. and Neogi, S. and Pathak, M. and Petzold, J. and Pereira, J. Portugal and Vyas, P. and Huntley, E. and Kissick, K. and Belkacemi, M. and Malley, J.},
pages = {3--36},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Summary for Policymakers}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/summary-for-policymakers},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{IPCC2019c,
author = {IPCC},
editor = {Shukla, P.R. and Skea, J. and Buendia, E. Calvo and Masson-Delmotte, V. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Zhai, P. and Slade, R. and Connors, S. and van Diemen, R. and Ferrat, M. and Haughey, E. and Luz, S. and Neogi, S. and Pathak, M. and Petzold, J. and Pereira, J. Portugal and Vyas, P. and Huntley, E. and Kissick, K. and Belkacemi, M. and Malley, J.},
pages = {896},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{IPCC2019,
author = {IPCC},
editor = {P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegr{\'{i}}a, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {755},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srocc},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Irannezhad2017a,
abstract = {This study evaluated variabilities and trends in annual snowfall to total precipitation (S/P) ratio at Sodankyl{\"{a}}, Kajaani and Kaisaniemi weather stations in northern, central and southern Finland during 1909–2008. Annual S/P ratio was estimated using daily precipitation and temperature records as input to a calibrated and validated temperature-index snowmelt model developed to simulate snowpack accumulation and melt processes in Finland. Factors controlling variations in annual S/P ratio and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) were also studied. The results show that there were significant declines in annual S/P ratio during 1909–2008, which were principally attributable to century-long decreasing trends in annual snowfall (S) in Finland. These reductions in annual S were predominantly controlled by both annual rainfall (R) and snowfall-day temperature (ST) in the south, annual ST in the centre, and annual R in the north. However, dividing the 100-year study period into an early (1909–1958) and late (1959–2008) periods revealed non-linear trend behaviours in annual S and consequently annual S/P ratio during 1909–2008. The Arctic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/West Russia and Scandinavia patterns were the most influential ACPs for annual S variability.},
author = {Irannezhad, Masoud and Ronkanen, Anna Kaisa and Kiani, Sepideh and Chen, Deliang and Kl{\o}ve, Bj{\o}rn},
doi = {10.1016/j.coldregions.2017.08.008},
issn = {0165232X},
journal = {Cold Regions Science and Technology},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Finland,Snowfall/precipitation ratio,Temperature,Trend analysis},
month = {nov},
pages = {23--31},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Long-term variability and trends in annual snowfall/total precipitation ratio in Finland and the role of atmospheric circulation patterns}},
volume = {143},
year = {2017}
}
@article{IribarrenAnacona2015,
abstract = {Glacier and permafrost hazards such as glacial-lake outburst floods and rock-ice avalanches cause significant socio-economic damages worldwide, and these processes may increase in frequency and magnitude if the atmospheric temperature rises. In the extratropical Andes nearly 200 human deaths were linked to these processes during the twentieth century. We analysed bibliographical sources and satellite images to document the glacier and permafrost dynamics that have caused socio-economic damages in this region in historic time (including glacial lake outburst floods, ice and rock-ice avalanches and lahars) to unravel their causes and geomorphological impacts. In the extratropical Andes, at least 15 ice-dammed lakes and 16 moraine-dammed lakes have failed since the eighteenth century, causing dozens of floods. Some floods rank amongst the largest events ever recorded (5000×106m3 and 229×106m3, respectively). Outburst flood frequency has increased in the last three decades, partially as a consequence of long-term (decades to centuries) climatic changes, glaciers shrinkage, and lake growth. Short-term (days to weeks) meteorological conditions (i.e. intense and/or prolonged rainfall and high temperature that increased meltwater production) have also triggered outburst floods and mass movements. Enormous mass failures of glaciers and permafrost ({\textgreater} 10×106m3) have impacted lakes, glaciers, and snow-covered valleys, initiating chain reactions that have ultimately resulted in lake tsunamis and far-reaching ({\textgreater} 50km) flows. The eruption of ice-covered volcanoes has also caused dozens of damaging lahars with volumes up to 45×106m3. Despite the importance of these events, basic information about their occurrence (e.g. date, causes, and geomorphological impact), which is well established in other mountain ranges, is absent in the extratropical Andes. A better knowledge of the processes involved can help to forecast and mitigate these events.},
author = {{Iribarren Anacona}, Pablo and Mackintosh, Andrew and Norton, Kevin Patrick},
doi = {10.1002/esp.3524},
issn = {01979337},
journal = {Earth Surface Processes and Landforms},
keywords = {Extratropical Andes,Glacier and permafrost hazards,Lahars,Lake outbursts,Rock-ice avalanches},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {2--21},
title = {{Hazardous processes and events from glacier and permafrost areas: lessons from the Chilean and Argentinean Andes}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/esp.3524},
volume = {40},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Izaguirre2020,
abstract = {The ports sector is critical to global transport and trade. Climate change may compromise port operations, resulting in an increase in operational shutdowns and subsequent economic losses. Here, we present an analysis of historical global risk across the operations of 2,013 ports worldwide and the impacts under a high-end warming scenario, considering atmospheric and marine hazards, industry established operational thresholds, exposure and vulnerability. Increased coastal flooding and overtopping due to sea level rise, as well as the heat stress impacts of higher temperatures, are the main contributors to amplified risk. Ports located in the Pacific Islands, Caribbean Sea and Indian Ocean appear to be at extremely high risk by 2100, whereas those in the African Mediterranean and the Arabian Peninsula (Persian Gulf and Red Sea) are expected to experience very high risk. Estimating risks at the global scale cannot capture site-level details, but these results provide a benchmark for further research and decision-making.},
author = {Izaguirre, C and Losada, I J and Camus, P and Vigh, J L and Stenek, V},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-00937-z},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {14--20},
title = {{Climate change risk to global port operations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00937-z http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00937-z},
volume = {11},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Jezequel2019,
abstract = {Extreme event attribution (EEA) proposes scientific diagnostics on whether and how a specific weather event is (or is not) different in the actual world from what it could have been in a world without climate change. This branch of climate science has developed to the point where European institutions are preparing the ground for an operational attribution service. In this context, the goal of this article is to explore a panorama of scientist perspectives on their motivations to undertake EEA studies. To do so, we rely on qualitative semi-structured interviews of climate scientists involved in EEA, on peer-reviewed social and climate literature discussing the usefulness of EEA, and on reports from the EUCLEIA project (European Climate and Weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution), which investigated the possibility of building an EEA service. We propose a classification of EEA's potential uses and users and discuss each of them. We find that, first, there is a plurality of motivations and that individual scientists disagree on which one is most useful. Second, there is a lack of solid, empirical evidence to back up any of these motivations.},
annote = {doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0048.1},
author = {J{\'{e}}z{\'{e}}quel, Agla{\'{e}} and D{\'{e}}poues, Vivian and Guillemot, H{\'{e}}l{\`{e}}ne and Rajaud, Am{\'{e}}lie and Trolliet, M{\'{e}}lodie and Vrac, Mathieu and Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul and Yiou, Pascal},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0048.1},
issn = {1948-8327},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {89--101},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Singular Extreme Events and Their Attribution to Climate Change: A Climate Service-Centered Analysis}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0048.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0048.1},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{JEZEQUEL2019100231,
abstract = {The Paris agreement recognizes “the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and slow onset events”. Hence, it raises the question of discriminating extreme events between those influenced and not influenced by climate change. Extreme event attribution (EEA) is the ensemble of scientific ways to interpret and answer the question “was this event influenced by climate change”. The relevance of EEA for climate negotiations was debated before the adoption of the Paris Agreement and is still discussed in post Paris Agreement literature. To inform this debate, we propose a phenomenological approach based on interviews. Parker et al. (2017) analyzed interviews from a mix of loss and damage stakeholders at COP 19, and highlighted a variety of opinions regarding the relevance of EEA for loss and damage. We propose to go further by focusing on two distinct groups of stakeholders: EEA scientists and loss and damage delegates (or their advisers). We find that delegates perceive EEA as a useful tool for awareness raising. We outline a number of hurdles raised by both groups, which may hinder EEA to be part of a practical loss and damage mechanism.},
author = {J{\'{e}}z{\'{e}}quel, Agla{\'{e}} and Yiou, Pascal and Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2019.100231},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
month = {dec},
pages = {100231},
title = {{Comparing scientists and delegates perspectives on the use of extreme event attribution for loss and damage}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094718301853 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094718301853},
volume = {26},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Jack2020,
abstract = {We introduce the concept of Climate Risk Narratives (CRNs), their origin, and their evolution through a trans-disciplinary engaged research activity around urban climate resilience. While the use of narratives as a communication and engagement device is well established and similar concepts such as scenarios and storylines exist, we describe the learning and value that this specific formulation of narratives has brought to an in-depth engagement process. In particular, we describe and explore how different types of uncertainty can be represented, how narratives can be co-produced, the value they bring to integration and interrogation of relevant knowledge, and the emerging role of narratives as trans-disciplinary engagement devices or boundary objects. The value of CRNs in producing climate knowledge and integrating it into decision-making is demonstrated through case study examples. Principles for developing CRNs and good practice in their use are proposed before mapping out future directions for research and practice.},
author = {Jack, Christopher David and Jones, Richard and Burgin, Laura and Daron, Joseph},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2020.100239},
issn = {22120963},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
keywords = {Adaptation,Climate information,Co-production,Decision-making,Narratives,Urban planning},
pages = {100239},
title = {{Climate risk narratives: An iterative reflective process for co-producing and integrating climate knowledge}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212096320300292},
volume = {29},
year = {2020}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2017EF000710,
abstract = {Abstract The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.},
author = {Jacob, Daniela and Kotova, Lola and Teichmann, Claas and Sobolowski, Stefan P. and Vautard, Robert and Donnelly, Chantal and Koutroulis, Aristeidis G. and Grillakis, Manolis G. and Tsanis, Ioannis K. and Damm, Andrea and Sakalli, Abdulla and van Vliet, Michelle T. H.},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000710},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {+1.5oC and +2oC global warming,Climate Change,Climate Change Impacts,Europe,IMPACT2C project},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {264--285},
title = {{Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017EF000710 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017EF000710},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{JACOB20171,
annote = {IMPACT2C - Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming},
author = {Jacob, Daniela and Solman, Silvina},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2017.07.006},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
pages = {1--2},
title = {{IMPACT2C – An introduction}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880717300870},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Jacob2020b,
abstract = {This concluding chapter offers an analysis of the presented findings, connects them to the history of climate services, and provides an overview of future perspectives. It considers current and future trends in climate science as well as the need to mitigate climate change, which is also impacting the development of climate services. The paper suggests that a major challenge by climate services is to identify the means and tools on how best to support adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.},
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Jacob, Daniela},
booktitle = {Handbook of Climate Services: Climate Change Management},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3_26},
editor = {{Leal Filho}, Walter and Jacob, Daniela},
isbn = {978-3-030-36875-3},
pages = {515--519},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Future Trends in Climate Services}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3{\_}26},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Jacob2014,
author = {Jacob, Daniela and Petersen, Juliane and Eggert, Bastian and Alias, Antoinette and Christensen, Ole B{\o}ssing and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Braun, Alain and Colette, Augustin and D{\'{e}}qu{\'{e}}, Michel and Georgievski, Goran and Georgopoulou, Elena and Gobiet, Andreas and Menut, Laurent and Nikulin, Grigory and Haensler, Andreas and Hempelmann, Nils and Jones, Colin and Keuler, Klaus and Kovats, Sari and Kr{\"{o}}ner, Nico and Kotlarski, Sven and Kriegsmann, Arne and Martin, Eric and van Meijgaard, Erik and Moseley, Christopher and Pfeifer, Susanne and Preuschmann, Swantje and Radermacher, Christine and Radtke, Kai and Rechid, Diana and Rounsevell, Mark and Samuelsson, Patrick and Somot, Samuel and Soussana, Jean-Francois and Teichmann, Claas and Valentini, Riccardo and Vautard, Robert and Weber, Bj{\"{o}}rn and Yiou, Pascal},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2},
file = {::},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {563--578},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2},
volume = {14},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Jacobs2015,
abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio and Alexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality) and space (geographical distribution) under future climate change scenarios.},
author = {Jacobs, John and Moore, Stephanie K. and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and Sun, Liqiang},
doi = {10.1016/J.CRM.2015.03.002},
issn = {2212-0963},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
month = {jan},
pages = {16--27},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096315000108?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{Jacobs2018b,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Jacobs, Jennifer M. and Culp, Michael and Cattaneo, Lia and Chinowsky, Paul S. and Choate, Anne and DesRoches, Susanne and Douglass, Scott L. and Miller, Rawlings},
booktitle = {Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II},
doi = {10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH12},
editor = {Reidmiller, D.R. and Avery, C.W. and Easterling, D.R. and Kunkel, K.E. and Lewis, K.L.M. and Maycock, T.K. and Stewar, B.C.},
pages = {479--511},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Transportation}},
url = {https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/12/},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Jacobs2020,
abstract = {Climate services have advanced significantly, evolving from primarily supply-side, top-down, one-size-fits-all approaches to a recognition of the need to support a unique and evolving community of decision makers and decision contexts. However, investments in climate services have not kept pace with the increasing need for evidence-based actions, and the need for “trusted relationships” between consumers and producers of those services may actually be slowing progress at a time when there is an increasing need to scale up from individual decisions to system-wide adaptation and resilience. In the meantime, recognition of the linkages between adaptation actions and the broader sustainable development agenda require an expansion of the concept of climate services from its historically narrow focus on the use of climate science for impact assessments and adaptation to that required to deliver a broader set of societal benefits based on increasing capacity to manage climate and other risks. A “next generation approach” is justified by the complexity and inter-relatedness of climate issues, the broad range of societal challenges, the scope of required actions, the rate at which adaptation and resilience challenges are emerging, and the range of data, tools and methods required. An approach based on transformational relationship-and capacity-building, which is capable of drawing on and informing science, service and practice is needed. Working at the science-to-service-to-practice interfaces to enable delivery of services aimed at informing action at scale will require new ways of collecting, analysing and using information and data about the effectiveness of climate actions in particular contexts.},
author = {Jacobs, Katharine L and Street, Roger Brian},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100199},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Climate adaptation networks,Climate services,Network capability,Transformational capability},
pages = {100199},
title = {{The next generation of climate services}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880720300510},
volume = {20},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Jahn2018,
abstract = {Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly with increasing global temperatures. However, it is largely unknown how Arctic summer sea-ice impacts would vary under the 1.5 °C Paris target compared to scenarios with greater warming. Using the Community Earth System Model, I show that constraining warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C reduces the probability of any summer ice-free conditions by 2100 from 100{\%} to 30{\%}. It also reduces the late-century probability of an ice cover below the 2012 record minimum from 98{\%} to 55{\%}. For warming above 2 °C, frequent ice-free conditions can be expected, potentially for several months per year. Although sea-ice loss is generally reversible for decreasing temperatures, sea ice will only recover to current conditions if atmospheric CO2 is reduced below present-day concentrations. Due to model biases, these results provide a lower bound on summer sea-ice impacts, but clearly demonstrate the benefits of constraining warming to 1.5 °C.},
author = {Jahn, Alexandra},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0127-8},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {5},
pages = {409--413},
pmid = {29493588},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0127-8},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Jain2017,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}We have constructed a fire weather climatology over North America from 1979 to 2015 using the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. We tested for the presence of trends in potential fire season length, based on a meteorological definition, and extreme fire weather using the non-parametric Theil–Sen slope estimator and Mann–Kendall test. Applying field significance testing (i.e. joint significance of multiple tests) allowed the identification of the locations of significant trends, taking into account spatial correlations. Fire season length was found to be increasing over large areas of North America, especially in eastern Canada and the south-western US, which is consistent with a later fire season end and an earlier fire season start. Both positive and negative trends in potential fire spread days and the 99th percentile of FWI occurred in Canada and the contiguous United States, although the trends of largest magnitude and statistical significance were mostly positive. In contrast, the proportion of trends with significant decreases in these variables were much lower, indicating an overall increase in extreme fire weather. The smaller proportion of significant positive trends found over Canada reflects the truncation of the time series, necessary because assimilation of precipitation observations over Canada ceased in the reanalysis post-2002.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Jain, Piyush and Wang, Xianli and Flannigan, Mike D.},
doi = {10.1071/WF17008},
issn = {1049-8001},
journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
number = {12},
pages = {1009},
title = {{Trend analysis of fire season length and extreme fire weather in North America between 1979 and 2015}},
url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF17008},
volume = {26},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Jain2020,
abstract = {An important aspect of predicting future wildland fire risk is estimating fire weather—weather conducive to the ignition and propagation of fire—under realistic climate change scenarios. Because the majority of area burned occurs on a few days of extreme fire weather, this task should be able to resolve fire weather extremes. In this paper, we present a statistical downscaling procedure based on distribution based scaling (DBS) to bias correct the Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, as calculated from modeled climate data. Our study area is western Canada (British Columbia and Alberta) and we consider both an historical control period (1990–2000) and three future time periods (2020–2030, 2050–2060, and 2080–2090). The historical data used to calibrate the DBS procedure comprises weather station data and weather from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), whereas the future climate projections are the output of three regional climate models, corresponding to different model parameterizations and downscaled from the NCAR Community Earth System Model under the RCP 8.5 scenario. By fitting a truncated Weibull distribution to observed and modeled FWI values, our method is able to reproduce historical extremes in fire weather indices as determined by the distribution of annual potential spread days, which are defined as days with FWI values greater than 19. Moreover, by calibrating the DBS procedure with gridded reanalysis data as well as station observations, we are able to project future spread day distributions over the entire study area. The results of this study show the DBS procedure leads to a greater number of projected annual spread days at most locations compared with estimates using the uncorrected model output, and that all three RCM models show positive increases in potential annual spread days for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 time periods.},
author = {Jain, Piyush and Tye, Mari R. and Paimazumder, Debasish and Flannigan, Mike},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02865-5},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Index-Spread days-Statistical downscaling-Bias cor,Weather,Wildfires-Fire},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {189--216},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media B.V.},
title = {{Downscaling fire weather extremes from historical and projected climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02865-5},
volume = {163},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Jakob2016,
abstract = {Risks from weather and climate extremes to governments, industries and communities are increasing and, at present, are not well quantified. In the presence of climate variability and long-term change, it may not be appropriate to base an assessment of the likelihood of climate hazards on the long-term averages. Many weather and climate extremes have increased in frequency and/or intensity in recent decades with climate model projections showing that several trends are likely to continue. The analysis of historical records is complementary to the use of climate models in understanding the changing nature of extremes. In this study, we apply a consistent methodology to examine the modulation in the probability of extremes in temperature and rainfall as they are influenced by climate change over the past century and natural climate variability and present summary tables and charts for a comprehensive comparison. The daily temperature data – maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature – are from a ‘high-quality' dataset developed at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology – the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network (ACORN) Surface Air Temperature (SAT) dataset. In the absence of a comparable dataset for daily rainfall, we analysed rainfall data at ACORN-SAT locations. Our analyses of extremes are based on annual maxima (annual minima for Tmin) of daily time series from 58 Australian sites over the period 1910–2009. We found statistically significant long-term increases in extreme maximum temperatures but with marked regional and seasonal variations. The increase in the lowest minimum temperature extremes typically exceeds the increase in the extremes of maximum temperature. Daily precipitation extremes rarely exhibit long-term change over the century but are strongly modulated by the El Ni{\~{n}}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The relative importance of long-term change and climate variability therefore depends on the variable or index. We conclude that in assessing the likelihood of climate hazards, one needs to consider the modulation of climate extremes due to both long-term change and climate variability. Our findings imply that when planning for adaptation, different emphasis needs to be given to changing temperature and precipitation extremes.},
author = {Jakob, D{\"{o}}rte and Walland, David},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2016.11.001},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Australia,ENSO,Extremes,Precipitation,Temperature,Trend,Variability},
month = {dec},
pages = {36--55},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Variability and long-term change in Australian temperature and precipitation extremes}},
volume = {14},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Jancloes2014,
abstract = {A high level expert panel discussed how climate and health services could best collaborate to improve public health. This was on the agenda of the recent Third International Climate Services Conference, held in Montego Bay, Jamaica, 4-6 December 2013. Issues and challenges concerning a demand led approach to serve the health sector needs, were identified and analysed. Important recommendations emerged to ensure that innovative collaboration between climate and health services assist decision-making processes and the management of climate-sensitive health risk. Key recommendations included: a move from risk assessment towards risk management; the engagement of the public health community with both the climate sector and development sectors, whose decisions impact on health, particularly the most vulnerable; to increase operational research on the use of policy-relevant climate information to manage climate- sensitive health risks; and to develop in-country capacities to improve local knowledge (including collection of epidemiological, climate and socio-economic data), along with institutional interaction with policy makers.},
author = {Jancloes, Michel and Thomson, Madeleine and Costa, Mar{\'{i}}a M{\'{a}}{\~{n}}ez and Hewitt, Chris and Corvalan, Carlos and Dinku, Tufa and Lowe, Rachel and Hayden, Mary},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph110504555},
isbn = {1660-4601},
issn = {16604601},
journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
keywords = {Climate services,Health policies,Public health,Weather alert},
number = {5},
pages = {4555--4559},
pmid = {24776719},
title = {{Climate services to improve public health}},
volume = {11},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Janoski2018,
abstract = {Eastern North America contains densely populated, highly developed areas, making winter storms with strong winds and high snowfall among the costliest storm types. For this reason, it is important to determine how the frequency of high-impact winter storms, specifically, those combining significant snowfall and winds, will change in this region under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This study uses a high-resolution coupled global climate model to simulate the changes in extreme winter conditions from the present climate to a future scenario with doubled CO 2 concentrations (2XC). In particular, this study focuses on changes in high-snowfall, extreme-wind (HSEW) events, which are defined as the occurrence of 2-day snowfall and high winds exceeding thresholds based on extreme values from the control simulation, where greenhouse gas concentrations remain fixed. Mean snowfall consistently decreases across the entire region, but extreme snowfall shows a more inconsistent pattern, with some areas experiencing increases in the frequency of extreme-snowfall events. Extreme-wind events show relatively small changes in frequency with 2XC, with the exception of high-elevation areas where there are large decreases in frequency. As a result of combined changes in wind and snowfall, HSEW events decrease in frequency in the 2XC simulation for much of eastern North America. Changes in the number of HSEW events in the 2XC environment are driven mainly by changes in the frequency of extreme-snowfall events, with most of the region experiencing decreases in event frequency, except for certain inland areas at higher latitudes.},
author = {Janoski, Tyler P. and Broccoli, Anthony J. and Kapnick, Sarah B. and Johnson, Nathaniel C.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0756.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {9037--9054},
title = {{Effects of Climate Change on Wind-Driven Heavy-Snowfall Events over Eastern North America}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0756.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Javed2017,
abstract = {In this study, samples of dust naturally accumulated for various exposure times on photovoltaic (PV) panels were collected and characterized over a period of ten months in a solar test facility located in Doha, Qatar. The dust accumulation rate (DAR) over the exposure time was determined gravimetrically. The dust samples were characterized using particle size analysis, X-ray fluorescence (XRF), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The cleanness index change rate (CICR), a measure of how fast the PV power output degrades due to soiling, was found to have strong negative correlation with DAR, but the CICR/DAR ratio was found to differ between winter and summer. The DAR and the mean particle size of the accumulated dust both decreased with increasing exposure time, reaching relatively steady values for longer exposure times. Calcium was found to be the most abundant element in the accumulated dust, followed by silicon, iron, magnesium and aluminum. Calcite, dolomite, and quartz were the dominant minerals in the accumulated dust, with gypsum being a minor component. Dust collected after dust-storm events had higher proportions of halite and quartz contents than non-dust-storm days, depending on the direction of the wind. Also, dust particles accumulated on PV panels appeared to agglomerate as the exposure time increased. The data provided in this paper will be useful for quantitatively determine the degree of soiling and its effect on PV performance in Qatar and regions with similar environmental conditions. The data will also be useful for the selection of soiling mitigation technologies.},
author = {Javed, Wasim and Wubulikasimu, Yiming and Figgis, Benjamin and Guo, Bing},
doi = {10.1016/j.solener.2016.11.053},
journal = {Solar Energy},
keywords = {Chemical composition,Dust accumulation rate,Exposure time,Particle size,XRD,XRF},
month = {jan},
pages = {123--135},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Characterization of dust accumulated on photovoltaic panels in Doha, Qatar}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X1630593X},
volume = {142},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Jenouvrier2014,
abstract = {Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by {\textgreater}50{\%} from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19{\%}. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change. {\textcopyright} 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.},
author = {Jenouvrier, St{\'{e}}phanie and Holland, Marika and Stroeve, Julienne and Serreze, Mark and Barbraud, Christophe and Weimerskirch, Henri and Caswell, Hal},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2280},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Conservation biology,change ecology},
month = {jun},
number = {8},
pages = {715--718},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change}},
url = {www.nature.com/natureclimatechange},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Jeong2018a,
abstract = {Wind and snow are major environmental loads that are often considered in the design of buildings and infrastructure. To ensure safety of existing structures and to develop guidelines for future developments, it is important to evaluate how these design loads will be impacted by the anticipated climate change. This study evaluates projected changes to selected return levels of wind speed and snow water equivalent (SWE) and associated wind pressure and ground snow loads across Canada for the future 2071–2100 period. Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) simulations driven by two Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two future emission scenarios are used. The CRCM5 projections suggest some increases in the future 50-year return levels of wind speed and pressure, mainly due to changes in inter-annual variability of annual maximum wind speed, particularly for the central and eastern regions. As for SWE loads, results suggest general decreases for southern Canada and increases for northern Canada in the 50-year return levels. However, the projections, particularly for wind loads, vary considerably with the driving GCM and the emission scenario, suggesting that larger ensembles including more RCMs and driving GCMs will be required to better quantify uncertainties to support development of climate-resilient design standards and codes.},
author = {Jeong, Dae Il and Sushama, Laxmi},
doi = {10.1016/j.scs.2017.10.004},
issn = {22106707},
journal = {Sustainable Cities and Society},
keywords = {Building codes,Canada,Climate change,Extremes,Snow load,Wind pressure},
month = {jan},
pages = {225--236},
title = {{Projected changes to extreme wind and snow environmental loads for buildings and infrastructure across Canada}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210670716307557 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2210670716307557},
volume = {36},
year = {2018}
}
@article{IlJeong2018a,
abstract = {This study evaluates projected changes to rain-on-snow (ROS) characteristics (i.e., frequency, rainfall amount, and runoff) for the future 2041–2070 period with respect to the current 1976–2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Prior to assessing projected changes, the two RCMs are evaluated by comparing ERA-Interim driven RCM simulations with available observations, and results indicate that both models reproduce reasonably well the observed spatial patterns of ROS event frequency and other related features. Analysis of current and future simulations suggest general increases in ROS characteristics during the November–March period for most regions of Canada and for northwestern US for the future period, due to an increase in the rainfall frequency with warmer air temperatures in future. Future ROS runoff is often projected to increase more than future ROS rainfall amounts, particularly for northeastern North America, during snowmelt months, as ROS events usually accelerate snowmelt. The simulations show that ROS event is a primary flood generating mechanism over most of Canada and north-western and -central US for the January–May period for the current period and this is projected to continue in the future period. More focused analysis over selected basins shows decreases in future spring runoff due to decreases in both snow cover and ROS runoff. The above results highlight the need to take into consideration ROS events in water resources management adaptation strategies for future climate.},
author = {Jeong, Dae Il and Sushama, Laxmi},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3609-x},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate change,Flood,North America,Rain-on-snow events,Regional climate modeling},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {303--316},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{Rain-on-snow events over North America based on two Canadian regional climate models}},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Jerez2015,
abstract = {Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range ({\^{a}}'14{\%};+2{\%}), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.},
author = {Jerez, Sonia and Tobin, Isabelle and Vautard, Robert and Mont{\'{a}}vez, Juan Pedro and L{\'{o}}pez-Romero, Jose Mar{\'{i}}a and Thais, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Bartok, Blanka and Christensen, Ole B{\o}ssing and Colette, Augustin and D{\'{e}}qu{\'{e}}, Michel and Nikulin, Grigory and Kotlarski, Sven and van Meijgaard, Erik and Teichmann, Claas and Wild, Martin},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms10014},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {10014},
title = {{The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10014},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Ji2018,
author = {Ji, Zhenming and Wang, Guiling and Yu, Miao and Pal, Jeremy S.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2792-x},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2335--2353},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Potential climate effect of mineral aerosols over West Africa: Part II – contribution of dust and land cover to future climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2792-x},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Jiang2018b,
author = {Jiang, Lei and Zhang, Fang and Guo, Ming-Lan and Guo, Ya-Juan and Zhang, Yu-Yang and Zhou, Guo-Wei and Cai, Lin and Lian, Jian-Sheng and Qian, Pei-Yuan and Huang, Hui},
doi = {10.1007/s00338-017-1634-1},
issn = {0722-4028},
journal = {Coral Reefs},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {71--79},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Increased temperature mitigates the effects of ocean acidification on the calcification of juvenile Pocillopora damicornis, but at a cost}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00338-017-1634-1},
volume = {37},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Jiang_2020,
abstract = {A stronger than global mean warming trend is projected over Central Asia in the coming century. Based on the historical simulations and projections under four combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) provided by 15 models from the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comprehensive picture of the future changes in precipitation over Central Asia under rapid warming and investigate possible mechanisms. At the end of the twenty-first century, robust increase of annual mean precipitation under all the scenarios is found (4.23 [2.60 to 7.36] {\%}, 10.52 [5.05 to 13.36] {\%}, 14.51 [8.11 to 16.91] {\%}, 14.41 [9.58 to 21.26] {\%} relative to the present-day for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The response of precipitation to increasing global mean temperature shows similar spatial patterns for the four scenarios with stronger changes over Tianshan mountain and the northern part of Central Asia. Further analysis reveals a wetting trend in spring and a drying trend in summer in both the north of Central Asia (NCA) and south of Central Asia (SCA). The wetting trend in spring is balanced by the increase of evaporation, while the drying trend in summer is mainly contributed by the decrease of vertical moisture advection. The thermodynamic effects associated with humidity changes contribute to the drying trends in both the two domains, while the dynamic effects favor for the drying trend in NCA and offset the drying trend in SCA. The response of precipitation to increasing temperature results in enhanced seasonalities for SCA and NCA, and an advancing of the first peak from summer to spring in the NCA.},
author = {Jiang, Jie and Zhou, Tianjun and Chen, Xiaolong and Zhang, Lixia},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d03},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {5},
pages = {54009},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2Fab7d03},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@misc{Jickells2005,
abstract = {The environmental conditions of Earth, including the climate, are determined by physical, chemical, biological, and human interactions that transform and transport materials and energy. This is the "Earth system": a highly complex entity characterized by multiple nonlinear responses and thresholds, with linkages between disparate components. One important part of this system is the iron cycle, in which iron-containing soil dust is transported from land through the atmosphere to the oceans, affecting ocean biogeochemistry and hence having feedback effects on climate and dust production. Here we review the key components of this cycle, identifying critical uncertainties and priorities for future research.},
author = {Jickells, T. D. and An, Z. S. and Andersen, K. K. and Baker, A. R. and Bergametti, C. and Brooks, N. and Cao, J. J. and Boyd, P. W. and Duce, R. A. and Hunter, K. A. and Kawahata, H. and Kubilay, N. and LaRoche, J. and Liss, P. S. and Mahowald, N. and Prospero, J. M. and Ridgwell, A. J. and Tegen, I. and Torres, R.},
booktitle = {Science},
doi = {10.1126/science.1105959},
issn = {00368075},
month = {apr},
number = {5718},
pages = {67--71},
pmid = {15802595},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Global iron connections between desert dust, ocean biogeochemistry, and climate}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/},
volume = {308},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Jin2015a,
author = {Jin, Yufang and Goulden, Michael L and Faivre, Nicolas and Veraverbeke, Sander and Sun, Fengpeng and Hall, Alex and Hand, Michael S and Hook, Simon and Randerson, James T},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094005},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {094005},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=9/a=094005?key=crossref.64094d5eefee1e5cc030ef3b853573fc},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Johnson2017a,
abstract = {Earthquakes can be triggered by changes in crustal stress, such as variations in fluid pore pressure. As a result, the alternating wet and dry cycles in earthquake-prone California should affect the earthquake rate. Johnson et al. asked whether this is indeed the case by combining detailed earthquake records with high-resolution GPS data from the past 9 years. Slight changes in stress did indeed influence the timing of earthquakes, which confirms that the annual hydrological loading cycle modulates microseismicity in California.Science, this issue p. 1161Establishing what controls the timing of earthquakes is fundamental to understanding the nature of the earthquake cycle and critical to determining time-dependent earthquake hazard. Seasonal loading provides a natural laboratory to explore the crustal response to a quantifiable transient force. In California, water storage deforms the crust as snow and water accumulates during the wet winter months. We used 9 years of global positioning system (GPS) vertical deformation time series to constrain models of monthly hydrospheric loading and the resulting stress changes on fault planes of small earthquakes. The seasonal loading analysis reveals earthquakes occurring more frequently during stress conditions that favor earthquake rupture. We infer that California seismicity rates are modestly modulated by natural hydrological loading cycles.},
author = {Johnson, Christopher W and Fu, Yuning and B{\"{u}}rgmann, Roland},
doi = {10.1126/science.aak9547},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jun},
number = {6343},
pages = {1161--1164},
title = {{Seasonal water storage, stress modulation, and California seismicity}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6343/1161.abstract http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aak9547},
volume = {356},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Jolly2015,
abstract = {Global wildfires can have severe societal implications and economic cost and have been strongly linked to climate. Here, the authors analyse daily global wildfire trends and show that, during the past 35 years, wildfire season length has increased by 18.7{\%} over more than a quarter of the Earth's surface.},
author = {Jolly, W. Matt and Cochrane, Mark A. and Freeborn, Patrick H. and Holden, Zachary A. and Brown, Timothy J. and Williamson, Grant J. and Bowman, David M. J. S.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms8537},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Climate,Fire ecology,change impacts},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {7537},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8537},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Jones2018b,
abstract = {Heat waves are among the most dangerous climate-related hazards, and they are projected to increase in frequency and intensity over the coming century. Exposure to heat waves is a function of the spatial distribution of physical events and the corresponding population distribution, and future exposure will be impacted by changes in both distributions. Here, we project future exposure using ensembles of climate projections that account for the urban heat island effect, for two alternative emission scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5) and two alternative population and urbanization (SSP3/SSP5) outcomes. We characterize exposure at the global, regional, and grid-cell level; estimate the exposure that would be avoided by mitigating future levels of climate change (to RCP4.5); and quantify the dependence of exposure on population outcomes. We find that climate change is a stronger determinant of exposure than demographic change in these scenarios, with a global reduction in exposure of over 50{\%} under a lower emissions pathway, while a slower population growth pathway leads to roughly 30{\%} less exposure. Exposure reduction varies at the regional level, but in almost all cases, the RCP remains more influential than the SSP. Uncertainty in outcomes is dominated by inter-annual variability in heat extremes (relative to variability across initial condition ensemble members). For some regions, this variability is large enough that a reduction in annual exposure is not guaranteed in each individual year by following the lower forcing pathway. Finally, we find that explicitly considering the urban heat island effect and separate urban and rural heat extremes and populations can substantially influence results, generally increasing projected exposure.},
author = {Jones, Bryan and Tebaldi, Claudia and O'Neill, Brian C. and Oleson, Keith and Gao, Jing},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2133-7},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {423--437},
title = {{Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2133-7},
volume = {146},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Jones2015,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Jones, Roger N. and Patwardhan, Anand and Cohen, Stewart J. and Dessai, Suraje and Lammel, Annamaria and Lempert, Robert J. and Mirza, M. Monirul Qader and {Von Storch}, Hans and Bierbaum, Rosina and King, Nicholas and Kumar, Pankaj},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415379.007},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Dokken, D.J. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058071},
pages = {195--228},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Foundations for decision making}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Jones2013,
abstract = {The South American monsoon system (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America. This study focuses on the large-scale characteristics of the SAMS: seasonal amplitudes, onset and demise dates, and durations. Changes in the SAMS are investigated with the gridded precipitation, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations for two scenarios [“historical” and high-emission representative concentration pathways (rcp8.5)]. Qualitative comparisons with a previous study indicate that some CMIP5 models have significantly improved their representation of the SAMS relative to their CMIP3 versions. Some models exhibit persistent deficiencies in simulating the SAMS. CMIP5 model simulations for the historical experiment show signals of climate change in South America. While the observational data show trends, the period used is too short for final conclusions concerning climate change. Future changes in the SAMS are analyzed with six CMIP5 model simulations of the rcp8.5 high-emission scenario. Most of the simulations show significant increases in seasonal amplitudes, early onsets, late demises, and durations of the SAMS. The simulations for this scenario project a 30{\%} increase in the amplitude from the current level by 2045–50. In addition, the rcp8.5 scenario projects an ensemble mean decrease of 14 days in the onset and 17-day increase in the demise date of the SAMS by 2045–50. The results additionally indicate lack of spatial agreement in model projections of changes in total wet-season precipitation over South America during 2070–2100. The most consistent CMIP5 projections analyzed here are the increase in the total monsoon precipitation over southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina.},
author = {Jones, Charles and Carvalho, Leila M. V.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00412.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6660--6678},
title = {{Climate Change in the South American Monsoon System: Present Climate and CMIP5 Projections}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00412.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Jones2014,
abstract = {Research suggests the problems of nutrient over-enrichment (eutrophication) and climatic warming are coalescing in lakes globally. This oftentimes leads to cyanobacteria dominance of lake algal communities, which is problematic because cyanobacteria can produce toxins, degrade beneficial and aesthetic properties of lake water, and impede fisheries production. Cyanobacteria are prevalent when lakes have high nutrients (especially phosphorus) and high water temperatures. Currently, industrialized animal production is a locally important source of excess nutrients. Various means have been employed to alleviate the negative consequences of eutrophication and cyanobacteria blooms, with controls on external nutrient inputs being the most effective. More aggressive nutrient control programs will be called for in the future just to hold pace with the steadily declining water quality in many lakes.},
address = {Dordrecht, The Netherlands},
author = {Jones, John and Brett, Michael T.},
booktitle = {Global Environmental Change},
doi = {10.1007/978-94-007-5784-4_109},
editor = {Freedman, B},
isbn = {978-94-007-5784-4},
pages = {273--279},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Lake Nutrients, Eutrophication, and Climate Change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-94-007-5784-4{\_}109},
volume = {1},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Jongejan2016,
abstract = {Climate change and the growth of coastal communities will significantly increase the socio-economic risks associated with coastline recession (i.e. the net long term landward movement of the coastline). Coastal setback lines are a commonly adopted management/planning tool to mitigate these risks. While it is widely recognized that planning decisions should be risk-informed, setback lines are presently determined using deterministic methods that cannot easily be related to considerations regarding the tolerability of risks. Here, we present a model for quantifying the risks posed by coastline recession and show how it can be used for deriving economically optimal setback lines. A demonstration at Narrabeen beach, Sydney, Australia illustrates that the proposed risk-informed approach to coastal zone management can significantly improve the transparency and efficiency of land-use planning decisions.},
author = {Jongejan, Ruben and Ranasinghe, Roshanka and Wainwright, David and Callaghan, David P. and Reyns, Johan},
doi = {10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.01.006},
issn = {09645691},
journal = {Ocean {\&} Coastal Management},
month = {mar},
pages = {87--94},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Drawing the line on coastline recession risk}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569116300060 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0964569116300060},
volume = {122},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Jung2019,
abstract = {Based on 12 global circulation models, the simulated changes in empirical 10 m wind speed distributions under the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 were quantified. It is demonstrated that climate change leads to significant wind speed distribution changes around the world. It is very likely that mean wind speed increases in most parts of Brazil, South Africa and Eastern Australia whereas decreasing mean wind speed is projected for large parts of the USA and Eastern Russia. Changes in the other distribution moments (standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis) are simulated in almost every region of the world. The theoretical distributions Weibull, Kappa, Wakeby and Burr-Generalized Extreme Value were fitted to current and future empirical wind speed distributions. It was found that the simulated changes in distribution moments often lead to changes in the fitting accuracy. This fact highlights the great importance of considering the wind speed distribution as temporally highly variable. Based on these changes, the system of wind speed distributions (including the Burr-Generalized Extreme Value, Kappa and Wakeby distribution) was adapted to potential future climate conditions by optimizing a bagged trees classifier. The use of the system of wind speed distributions ensures a consistent wind speed distribution fitting by selecting the best fitting theoretical distribution under changing climate conditions. The results of this study are a valuable basis for planning future wind energy assessments from both the theoretical and practical perspective.},
author = {Jung, Christopher and Schindler, Dirk},
doi = {10.1016/j.enconman.2019.111841},
issn = {01968904},
journal = {Energy Conversion and Management},
keywords = {Distribution moments,GCM,Goodness-of-fit,RCP85,Wakeby,Weibull},
month = {oct},
pages = {111841},
title = {{Changing wind speed distributions under future global climate}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196890419308234 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0196890419308234},
volume = {198},
year = {2019}
}
@inproceedings{Jurchescu2017,
abstract = {It is widely recognized that climate change is affecting slope stability. However, there is still a great knowledge gap on landslide-climate interaction, while in data-scarce regions, like Romania, it is even less clear how landslide occurrence probability will evolve in response to climate change. The present study proposes a methodological framework for assessing the potential effects of climate change on landslide hazard at a national scale, under current (1961-2015) and future climate (2021-2050). The research approach for developing landslide hazard scenarios relies on the historical landslide inventory of the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (IGSU) (2005-2015), updated observational meteorological data and EURO-CORDEX projections of six GCM-RCM runs under two new IPCC scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Precipitation observation and projection data are analyzed in close relation to the landslide events reported within the historical landslide inventory, in order to develop national rainfall-induced landslide hazard scenarios. Maps displaying projected climate change impacts upon landslide hazard patterns and levels are constructed. Future climate-driven evolution trends on landslide occurrences are identified and discussed. Their understanding is expected to support landslide risk management at both national and regional scales. The study was conducted in the framework of the RO-RISK "Disaster Risk Evaluation at National Level" project, aimed to support the fulfillment of the EU ex-ante conditionality 5.},
address = {Iași},
author = {Jurchescu, Marta and Micu, Dana and Sima, Mihaela and Bălteanu, Dan and Bojariu, Roxana and Dumitrescu, Alexandru and Dragotă, Carmen and Micu, Mihai and Senzaconi, Francisc},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 33rd Romanian Geomorphology Symposium},
doi = {10.15551/prgs.2017.121},
keywords = {Romania,climate change impact,extreme climate indices,landslide hazard,national scale},
pages = {121--124},
publisher = {Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iași Press},
title = {{An approach to investigate the effects of climate change on landslide hazard at a national scale (Romania)}},
url = {http://www.changes-itn.eu http://www.geo.uaic.ro/sng2017/site{\_}proceedings/Proceedings{\_}SNG2017{\_}ISSN{\_}2559-3021{\_}121.pdf},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Jyrkama2007,
author = {Jyrkama, Mikko I. and Sykes, Jon F.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.02.036},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {may},
number = {3-4},
pages = {237--250},
title = {{The impact of climate change on spatially varying groundwater recharge in the grand river watershed (Ontario)}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169407001308},
volume = {338},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Kamarainen2018,
abstract = {The effects of climate change on freezing rain in Europe under medium (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) future emission scenarios were assessed using seven regional climate model simulations conducted within the World Climate Research Project's COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment over the European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). A precipitation-typing algorithm was applied to modeled three-dimensional subdaily time series of key meteorological variables to estimate the occurrence and amounts of freezing rain above selected intensity thresholds. The annual probabilities of freezing rain during the baseline (1971?2000) and future (2071?2100) periods were calculated. The models agree that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the frequencies of freezing rain decrease in western, central, and southeastern Europe by 20?55{\%} and increase in the northern and northeastern parts of the continent by 0?50{\%} toward the end of the century. In the northern regions, the peaks in spring and fall with freezing rain amounts during the baseline period tend to merge to a single peak in winter during the future period. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the changes are qualitatively similar but smaller.},
author = {K{\"{a}}m{\"{a}}r{\"{a}}inen, Matti and Hyv{\"{a}}rinen, Otto and Vajda, Andrea and Nikulin, Grigory and van Meijgaard, Erik and Teichmann, Claas and Jacob, Daniela and Gregow, Hilppa and Jylh{\"{a}}, Kirsti},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD029131},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {climate change,climate hazard,extreme weather,freezing rain,regional climate model},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {13291-- 13304},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Estimates of Present‐Day and Future Climatologies of Freezing Rain in Europe Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029131 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD029131},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kalvelage2014,
author = {Kalvelage, Kelly and Passe, Ulrike and Rabideau, Shannon and Takle, Eugene S.},
doi = {10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.03.009},
issn = {03787788},
journal = {Energy and Buildings},
month = {jun},
pages = {373--380},
title = {{Changing climate: The effects on energy demand and human comfort}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S037877881400228X},
volume = {76},
year = {2014}
}
@article{nhess-17-1837-2017,
author = {Kapitsa, V and Shahgedanova, M and Machguth, H and Severskiy, I and Medeu, A},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-17-1837-2017},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
number = {10},
pages = {1837--1856},
title = {{Assessment of evolution and risks of glacier lake outbursts in the Djungarskiy Alatau, Central Asia, using Landsat imagery and glacier bed topography modelling}},
url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/1837/2017/},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Karnauskas2018,
abstract = {The use of wind energy resource is an integral part of many nations' strategies towards realizing the carbon emissions reduction targets set forth in the Paris Agreement, and global installed wind power cumulative capacity has grown on average by 22{\%} per year since 2006. However, assessments of wind energy resource are usually based on today's climate, rather than taking into account that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to modify the global atmospheric circulation. Here, we apply an industry wind turbine power curve to simulations of high and low future emissions scenarios in an ensemble of ten fully coupled global climate models to investigate large-scale changes in wind power across the globe. Our calculations reveal decreases in wind power across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and increases across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, with substantial regional variations. The changes across the northern mid-latitudes are robust responses over time in both emissions scenarios, whereas the Southern Hemisphere changes appear critically sensitive to each individual emissions scenario. In addition, we find that established features of climate change can explain these patterns: polar amplification is implicated in the northern mid-latitude decrease in wind power, and enhanced land–sea thermal gradients account for the tropical and southern subtropical increases.},
author = {Karnauskas, Kristopher B and Lundquist, Julie K and Zhang, Lei},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-017-0029-9},
issn = {1752-0908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {1},
pages = {38--43},
title = {{Southward shift of the global wind energy resource under high carbon dioxide emissions}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0029-9},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Karnauskas2016,
abstract = {Global climate models project large changes in the terrestrial water balance for many regions over this century in response to greenhouse gas emission, but insufficient resolution precludes such knowledge for approximately 18 million people living on small islands scattered across the world ocean. By accounting for evaporative demand a posteriori at 80 island groups distributed among Earth's major ocean basins, we reveal a robust yet spatially variable tendency towards increasing aridity at over 73{\%} of island groups (16 million people) by mid-century. Although about half of the island groups are projected to experience increased rainfall - predominantly in the deep tropics - projected changes in evaporation are more uniform, shifting the global distribution of changes in island freshwater balance towards greater aridity. In many cases, the magnitude of projected drying is comparable to the amplitude of the estimated observed interannual variability, with important consequences for extreme events as well as mean climate. Future freshwater stress, including geographic and seasonal variability, has important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios for vulnerable human populations living on islands across the world ocean.},
author = {Karnauskas, Kristopher B. and Donnelly, Jeffrey P. and Anchukaitis, Kevin J.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2987},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {720--725},
title = {{Future freshwater stress for island populations}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2987},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Karnauskas2018a,
abstract = {Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction ({\~{}} 25{\%}) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.},
author = {Karnauskas, Kristopher B and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Donnelly, Jeffrey P and Anchukaitis, Kevin J},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-018-1331-9},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
keywords = {Aridity,Climate,Freshwater,Global warming,Islands,Population,SIDS},
pages = {2273--2282},
title = {{Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1331-9},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Karremann2014,
abstract = {storm loss},
author = {Karremann, Melanie K. and Pinto, Joaquim G. and Reyers, Mark and Klawa, Matthias},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124016},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Climate change,Clustering,European windstorms,Overdispersion,Return periods,Storm losses,Storm series},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {124016},
title = {{Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/9/i=12/a=124016?key=crossref.3d09df69e84230c7629cb64f624c37ba},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Karymbalis2012a,
abstract = {The eustatic sea-level rise due to global warming is predicted to reach approximately 18–59 cm by the year 2100, which necessitates the identification and protection of sensitive sections of coastline. In this study, the classification of the southern coast of the Gulf of Corinth according to the sensitivity to the anticipated future sealevel rise is attempted by applying the Coastal Sensitivity Index (CSI), with variable ranges specifically modified for the coastal environment of Greece, utilizing GIS technology. The studied coastline has a length of 148 km and is oriented along the WNW-ESE direction. CSI calculation involves the relation of the following physical variables, associated with the sensitivity to long-term sea-level rise, in a quantifiable manner: geomorphology, coastal slope, relative sea-level rise rate, shoreline erosion or accretion rate, mean tidal range and mean wave height. For each variable, a relative risk value is assigned according to the potential magnitude of its contribution to physical changes on the coast as the sea-level rises. Every section of the coastline is assigned a risk ranking based on each variable, and the CSI is calculated as the square root of the product of the ranked variables divided by the total number of variables. Subsequently, a CSI map is produced for the studied coastline. This map showed that an extensive length of the coast (57.0 km, corresponding to 38.7{\%} of the entire coastline) is characterized as highly and very highly sensitive primarily due to the low topography, the presence of erosionsusceptible geological formations and landforms and fast relative sea-level rise rates. Areas of high and very high CSI values host socio-economically important land uses and activities.},
author = {Karymbalis, Efthimios and Chalkias, Christos and Chalkias, George and Grigoropoulou, Eleni and Manthos, George and Ferentinou, Maria},
doi = {10.2478/s13533-012-0101-3},
issn = {2391-5447},
journal = {Open Geosciences},
month = {jan},
number = {4},
pages = {561--577},
title = {{Assessment of the sensitivity of the southern coast of the Gulf of Corinth (Peloponnese, Greece) to sea-level rise}},
url = {http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/geo.2012.4.issue-4/s13533-012-0101-3/s13533-012-0101-3.xml},
volume = {4},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Kattsov2017b,
abstract = {The problem is stated of quantification of the 21st century climate change projections across Russia detailed in the physical and probability spaces. The obtained projections are to be used for the quantitative description of future climate impacts on the sectors of the Russian economy and, in the end, for de velop ing the federal, sector, and regional plans of adaptation to climate changes. The formulated problem is solved by massive (50 members) ensemble simulations using the high-resolution (the horizontal resolution is 25 km) system of climate models developed in the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory.},
author = {Kattsov, V. M. and Shkolnik, I. M. and Efimov, S. V.},
doi = {10.3103/S1068373917070044},
issn = {1068-3739},
journal = {Russian Meteorology and Hydrology},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {452--460},
publisher = {Allerton Press},
title = {{Climate change projections in Russian regions: The detailing in physical and probability spaces}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.3103/S1068373917070044},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@article{HiroakiKawaseAkihikoMurataRyoMizutaHidetakaSasakiMasayaNosakaMasayoshiIshii2016a,
abstract = {This study investigates future changes in the accumulated and daily heavy winter snowfall in central Japan and the surrounding regions. We analyze outputs of the 48-member ensemble regional climate simulations in the historical and future climates. In the historical climate simulations, each ensemble member has a 61-year simulation from September 1950 to August 2011. For the future climate simulations, we also conduct 61-year simulations assuming the climate at the end of the twenty-first century (2080–2099) when the global mean surface air temperature is about 4 °C warmer than the pre-industrial climate (1861–1880) as projected under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Our simulations show that the heavy snowfall occurring at a frequency of every 10 years is enhanced in the inland areas of the central part of the Japanese archipelago (central Japan) where the total winter snowfall amount decreases significantly. Heavy snowfall is also intensified in the northern part of the Asian continent where the surface air temperature is much colder than over central Japan. A composite analysis of heavy snowfall events in central Japan indicates that such events occur when the Japan Sea polar air mass convergence zone (JPCZ) appears during the East Asian winter monsoon season. In the future climate projections, the JPCZ is intensified since the warm ocean supplies more moisture due to warming. An upward wind anomaly is also found over the windward side of mountains where the upward flow is prevalent climatologically. The intensification of both the JPCZ and the upward wind over the mountain ranges result in the enhancement of heavy snowfall in inland areas where the surface air temperature is still below 0 °C.},
author = {Kawase, Hiroaki and Murata, Akihiko and Mizuta, Ryo and Sasaki, Hidetaka and Nosaka, Masaya and Ishii, Masayoshi and Takayabu, Izuru},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1781-3},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {2},
pages = {265--278},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Enhancement of heavy daily snowfall in central Japan due to global warming as projected by large ensemble of regional climate simulations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1781-3},
volume = {139},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Kawase2020,
abstract = {To investigate future changes in snow cover and snowfall over mountainous areas in central Japan, we conducted regional climate projections using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with 5 km and 1 km grid spacings. Boundary conditions are derived from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) 20 km regional climate projections (d4PDF20). The d4PDF20 assumes two future climates when global mean surface air temperatures are approximately 2 K and 4 K warmer than in the preindustrial period. Experiments with 5 km grid spacing are conducted by NHRCM for 372 years in d4PDF20 in each climate. Experiments with 1 km grid spacing are performed focusing on 5 years with heavy, median, and light snow cover of mountainous areas in each climate. In the years with heavy snow cover in 2 K and 4 K warming climates, snowfall is enhanced from late December to February at more than 2000 m above sea level (mASL) in the northern parts of Japan's Northern Alps, resulting in heavy snow cover comparable to that in the present climate. Heavy daily snowfall remarkably increases due to global warming in the years with heavy snow cover. At low elevations below 500 mASL, snowfall decreases in all ranges of snowfall intensity in the 4 K warming climate, while the frequency of heavy daily snowfall increases in the 2 K warming climate. Precipitation is enhanced around the Japan-Sea Polar-airmass Convergence Zone and the mountainous area facing the Sea of Japan, resulting in strengthened heavy snowfall at high elevations where the winter mean temperature is approximately − 10 °C in the present climate. On the other hand, remarkable reductions in snow cover and snowfall are projected in years with light snow cover. Our results indicate that global warming causes heavy and light mid-winter snowfalls at high elevations of Japan's Northern Alps that are more extreme than those in the present climate.},
author = {Kawase, Hiroaki and Yamazaki, Takeshi and Sugimoto, Shiori and Sasai, Takahiro and Ito, Rui and Hamada, Takashi and Kuribayashi, Masatoshi and Fujita, Mikiko and Murata, Akihiko and Nosaka, Masaya and Sasaki, Hidetaka},
doi = {10.1186/s40645-020-0322-x},
issn = {2197-4284},
journal = {Progress in Earth and Planetary Science},
number = {1},
pages = {10},
title = {{Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-0322-x},
volume = {7},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kazemzadeh2016,
author = {Kazemzadeh, Majid and Malekian, Arash},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-015-1964-7},
issn = {0921-030X},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {191--210},
title = {{Spatial characteristics and temporal trends of meteorological and hydrological droughts in northwestern Iran}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-015-1964-7},
volume = {80},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Keele2019,
abstract = {There has been a global trend away from delivering ‘climate information' towards producing ‘climate services' for decision-makers. The rationale for this shift is said to be the demand for timely and actionable climate knowledge, whilst the means of its delivery involves a shift from public good to more privatised forms of climate science. This paper identifies important implications of this shift to climate services by examining the role of consultants, drawing on an in-depth study of adaptation consultants in Australia. The role of consultants is instructive, not just because these private sector experts are engaged in climate services, but also because publicly funded climate science agencies are increasingly encouraged to behave as consulting firms do. Four imperatives of knowledge businesses—to be client-focussed, solutions-oriented, resource-efficient and self-replicating—are described. The paper argues that an emphasis on climate services shifts the incentives for climate science away from the public interest towards the ongoing pursuit of profit. There is a subsequent diversion of effort away from publicly accessible and transparent climate information to private knowledge for discrete clients. Climate services also emphasise knowledge for climate solutions as opposed to the politically charged identification of climate risks. The paper concludes with a warning that the trend towards climate services undermines the knowledge required for societies to adequately respond to the scale, speed and severity of climate change. At the heart of this issue is a climate services paradox: how to achieve customisation without exclusion.},
author = {Keele, Svenja},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02385-x},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {9--26},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Consultants and the business of climate services: implications of shifting from public to private science}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02385-x http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-019-02385-x},
volume = {157},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Keener2018,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Keener, Victoria and Helweg, David and Asam, Susan and Balwani, Seema and Burkett, Maxine and Fletcher, Charles and Giambelluca, Thomas and Grecni, Zena and Nobrega-Olivera, Malia and Polovina, Jeffrey and Tribble, Gordon},
booktitle = {Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II},
doi = {10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH27},
editor = {Reidmiller, D.R. and Avery, C.W. and Easterling, D.R. and Kunkel, K.E. and Lewis, K.L.M. and Maycock, T.K. and Stewart, B.C.},
pages = {1242--1308},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Hawai‘i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands}},
url = {https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/hawaii-pacific},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kefi2020,
abstract = {The sustainability and efficiency of flood risk management depends on the assessment of flood hazards and on the quantification of flood damage. Under the conditions of climate change and rapid urbanization, the evaluation of flood risk can lead to the success of adaptation strategies. The main objectives of this study are the estimation of future direct flood damage in two urban watersheds: The Pasig–Marikina–San Juan River in Metro Manila, Philippines, and the Ciliwung River in Jakarta, Indonesia, as well as the determination of the relation between factors that drive floods and flood damage. A spatial analysis approach based on the integration of several parameters, such as flood hazard, climate, and property value, was applied using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The flood depth-damage function generated from the field surveys was employed for the analysis to identify the spatial distribution of flood loss. The findings showed that, under future scenarios (target year: 2030), the total flood damage will increase by 212{\%} and 80{\%} in the target areas of Manila and Jakarta, respectively, compared to the current scenarios. This growth is due to the higher level of extreme rainfall events and to the degree of urbanization in the future. A comparative analysis of the two study areas highlighted the significant effects of the level of water depth and the inundated areas on flood damage, depending on the sites. This study is useful for local decision makers to implement suitable strategies for urban planning and flood control.},
author = {Kefi, Mohamed and Mishra, Binaya Kumar and Masago, Yoshifumi and Fukushi, Kensuke},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-020-04281-5},
issn = {1573-0840},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
number = {3},
pages = {2461--2487},
title = {{Analysis of flood damage and influencing factors in urban catchments: case studies in Manila, Philippines, and Jakarta, Indonesia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04281-5},
volume = {104},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kelley201421533,
abstract = {Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.},
author = {Kelley, Colin P. and Mohtadi, Shahrzad and Cane, Mark A. and Seager, Richard and Kushnir, Yochanan},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1421533112},
isbn = {0027-8424},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {11},
pages = {3241--3246},
pmid = {25733898},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1421533112},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kent2014a,
annote = {doi: 10.1289/ehp.1307262},
author = {Kent, Shia T. and McClure, Leslie A. and Zaitchik, Benjamin F. and Smith, Tiffany T. and Gohlke, Julia M.},
doi = {10.1289/ehp.1307262},
issn = {0091-6765},
journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {151--158},
publisher = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
title = {{Heat Waves and Health Outcomes in Alabama (USA): The Importance of Heat Wave Definition}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307262 https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.1307262},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Kermanshah2017,
abstract = {Climate change will impact urban infrastructure networks by changing precipitation patterns in a region. This study presents a novel vulnerability assessment framework for infrastructure networks against extreme rainfall-induced flash floods, with a specific application to transportation. The framework combines climate models, network science, geographical information systems (GIS), and stochastic modeling to compile a vulnerability surface (VS). Daily precipitation simulations for 2006–2100 from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), are used to produce a stochastic simulation of extreme flash flood events in five U.S. cities—that is, Boston, Massachusetts; Houston, Texas; Miami, Florida; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania—under two different climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To assess the impact of these events, percentage drops in static (i.e., overall properties and robustness topological indicators) and dynamic (i.e., GIS accessibility and travel demand metrics) network properties are measured before and after simulated extreme events. The results of these metrics are inputs on a radar diagram to form a VS. Overall, the results show that changes in flash flood frequency due to climate change can have a significant impact on road networks, as was demonstrated recently in Houston, Texas. The magnitude of these impacts is chiefly associated with the geographic location of the cities and the size of the networks. The proposed framework can be reproduced in any city around the world, and researchers can use the results as guidelines for infrastructure design and planning purposes. Moreover, sensitivity analysis to varying greenhouse gas concentration trajectories can help local and national authorities to prioritize strategies for adaptation to climate change in more vulnerable regions.},
author = {Kermanshah, A and Derrible, S and Berkelhammer, M},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0083.1},
issn = {1558-8424},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {2637--2650},
title = {{Using Climate Models to Estimate Urban Vulnerability to Flash Floods}},
url = {www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses https://journals.ametsoc.org/jamc/article/56/9/2637 /21722/Using-Climate-Models-to-Estimate-Urban},
volume = {56},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kerr2018a,
abstract = {The body of literature on ambient air pollution suggests that atmospheric stagnation events trigger high levels of air pollution. In this paper we use fifteen years (2000-2014) of summertime in situ air quality measurements together with meteorological reanalysis data to examine the temporal correlation of pollutants with the Air Stagnation Index (ASI) on daily timescales. We find that while the direction of the relationship between the ASI and summertime PM2.5 and O3 ranges from near-zero to positive throughout regions comprising the contiguous United States (US), the strength of the relationship is very weak (e.g. in the Northeast the correlation coefficient between the ASI and PM2.5 is 0.09). Moreover, similar to our analysis of the correlation of day-to-day variations of the ASI and pollutants, the percentage of co-occurring extreme pollution and stagnation events is small (e.g. days with a high coverage of stagnation only co-occur with extreme pollution events about one-third of the time in the Northeast). The southern US is an exception to our overall findings as the strength of the relationship between the ASI and pollution is stronger and the percentage of co-occurring events is higher compared with other regions. The results of this study suggest a reevaluation of the ASI as an index to assess meteorological and climatic impacts to air quality.},
author = {Kerr, Gaige Hunter and Waugh, Darryn W.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aad2e2},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Air quality,Meteorology,Ozone,Particulate matter,Pollution,Stagnation},
month = {jul},
number = {8},
pages = {84001},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Connections between summer air pollution and stagnation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad2e2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aad2e2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aad2e2/meta},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kew2019,
author = {Kew, Sarah F. and Philip, Sjoukje Y. and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and van der Schrier, Gerard and Otto, Friederike E. L. and Vautard, Robert},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0109.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {S49--S53},
title = {{The Exceptional Summer Heat Wave in Southern Europe 2017}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0109.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/1/bams-d-18-0109.1.xml},
volume = {100},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kew2021,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Abstract. In eastern Africa droughts can cause crop failure and lead to food insecurity. With increasing temperatures, there is an a priori assumption that droughts are becoming more severe. However, the link between droughts and climate change is not sufficiently understood. Here we investigate trends in long-term agricultural drought and the influence of increasing temperatures and precipitation deficits. Using a combination of models and observational datasets, we studied trends, spanning the period from 1900 (to approximate pre-industrial conditions) to 2018, for six regions in eastern Africa in four drought-related annually averaged variables: soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and evaporative demand (E0). In standardized soil moisture data, we found no discernible trends. The strongest influence on soil moisture variability was from precipitation, especially in the drier or water-limited study regions; temperature and E0 did not demonstrate strong relations to soil moisture. However, the error margins on precipitation trend estimates are large and no clear trend is evident, whereas significant positive trends were observed in local temperatures. The trends in E0 are predominantly positive, but we do not find strong relations between E0 and soil moisture trends. Nevertheless, the E0 trend results can still be of interest for irrigation purposes because it is E0 that determines the maximum evaporation rate. We conclude that until now the impact of increasing local temperatures on agricultural drought in eastern Africa is limited and we recommend that any soil moisture analysis be supplemented by an analysis of precipitation deficit.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Kew, Sarah F. and Philip, Sjoukje Y. and Hauser, Mathias and Hobbins, Mike and Wanders, Niko and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and van der Wiel, Karin and Veldkamp, Ted I. E. and Kimutai, Joyce and Funk, Chris and Otto, Friederike E. L.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-12-17-2021},
file = {::},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {17--35},
title = {{Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/17/2021/},
volume = {12},
year = {2021}
}
@techreport{Key2014a,
author = {Key, Nigel and Sneeringer, Stacy and Marquardt, David},
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.2506668},
keywords = {Climate change,dairy,heat stress,productivity,stochastic frontier,technical efficiency},
month = {sep},
pages = {39},
publisher = {Economic Research Service},
series = {ERR-175, U.S. Department of Agriculture},
title = {{Climate Change, Heat Stress, and U.S. Dairy Production}},
url = {http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=2506668},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Khalyani2016,
abstract = {The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to decline in both model ensembles, but the decrease was more severe in the "regionally consistent" models. The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960-90 period to the 2071-99 period was 4.6°-9°C depending on the global emission scenarios and location. This warming may cause increases in CDD, and consequently increasing energy demands. Life zones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.},
author = {Khalyani, Azad Henareh and Gould, William A. and Harmsen, Eric and Terando, Adam and Quinones, Maya and Collazo, Jaime A.},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0182.1},
issn = {15588432},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
number = {2},
pages = {265--282},
title = {{Climate change implications for tropical islands: Interpolating and interpreting statistically downscaled GCM projections for management and planning}},
volume = {55},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Khan2012,
author = {Khan, Younus Ahmed and Lateh, Habibah and Baten, M. Azizul and Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah},
doi = {10.1007/s12665-011-1483-0},
issn = {1866-6280},
journal = {Environmental Earth Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {1},
pages = {97--106},
title = {{Critical antecedent rainfall conditions for shallow landslides in Chittagong City of Bangladesh}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12665-011-1483-0},
volume = {67},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Khan2018a,
author = {Khan, Sana and Sinha, Rajiv and Whitehead, Paul and Sarkar, Sananda and Jin, Li and Futter, Martyn N.},
doi = {10.1080/02626667.2018.1447113},
issn = {0262-6667},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {763--782},
title = {{Flows and sediment dynamics in the Ganga River under present and future climate scenarios}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2018.1447113},
volume = {63},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Khan2018,
abstract = {Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960–2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99{\%} area of Pakistan respectively at 95{\%} level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17–0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17–0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (− 0.15 to − 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.},
author = {Khan, Najeebullah and Shahid, Shamsuddin and bin Ismail, Tarmizi and Wang, Xiao-Jun},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2520-7},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {may},
number = {3-4},
pages = {899--913},
publisher = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
title = {{Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-018-2520-7},
volume = {136},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Khan2019a,
abstract = {Increased frequency and severity of heat wave is one of the immediate and certain impacts of rising temperature due to global warming. A number of heat wave related indices considering both daily maximum and minimum temperature are proposed in this paper to assess the changes in different characteristics of heat waves in Pakistan, which is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to extreme temperature. Gridded daily temperature dataset of Princeton's Global Meteorological Forcing for the period 1948–2010 was used for this purpose. The results revealed daily maximum temperature more than 95-th percentile threshold for consecutive 5 days or more can well reconstruct the spatial pattern of heat wave in Pakistan. The results revealed that intense heat waves in Pakistan are mostly occurred in the southwest. However, heat waves are most devastating when those occur in highly populated southeast region. It was found that major heat waves in Pakistan occurred in 1952, 1978, 1984, 1988, 2002, 2006, 2009 and 2010 which affected 55.7, 71.1, 74.0, 72.3, 48.9, 60.6, 41.8 and 82.9{\%} population respectively. The trends in heat wave indices revealed significant increases in the indices calculated based on both the maximum and minimum temperatures. Duration of heat wave was found to increase at a rate of 0.71 days/decade, while the duration and affected area having both maximum and minimum temperature above 95-th percentiles are found to increase at a rate of 0.95 days/decade and 1.36{\%} of total area of Pakistan per decade respectively.},
author = {Khan, Najeebullah and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Ismail, Tarmizi and Ahmed, Kamal and Nawaz, Nadeem},
doi = {10.1007/s00477-018-1605-2},
issn = {1436-3259},
journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
number = {1},
pages = {287--302},
title = {{Trends in heat wave related indices in Pakistan}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1605-2},
volume = {33},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Khan2020,
abstract = {Performance of 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was assessed according to their ability to reconstruct the different properties of heat waves (HWs); HW frequency, HW duration and HW index estimated using Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing (PGF) daily temperature data for the period 1961 to 2005 in order to generate an ensemble for the projection of HWs in Pakistan. The GCMs were selected based on three criteria: (1) ability to replicate the decadal variability in HW properties, (2) ability to reconstruct the spatial distribution of HW properties based on Taylor skill score, (3) replicate the annual time series of HW properties based on standard statistical indices and compromise programming. Results revealed four GCMs: CCSM4, CESM1(BGC), CMCC-CM and NorESM1-M are the most suitable for the projection of HWs over Pakistan. Projection of HWs using the selected GCMs revealed increase in the frequency and severity of HWs in most parts of Pakistan for both the radiative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios used in the study. The frequency of HWs was projected to increase up to 12 events per year while the duration was projected to increase up to 100 days in a year during 2060 to 2099 for the highest emission scenario. Overall, the HWs were projected to be more frequent and longer duration in the east and the southern coastal regions.},
author = {Khan, Najeebullah and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Ahmed, Kamal and Wang, Xiaojun and Ali, Rawshan and Ismail, Tarmizi and Nawaz, Nadeem},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104688},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Climate change projections,General circulation model,Gridded climate data,Heat waves,Pakistan},
month = {mar},
pages = {104688},
title = {{Selection of GCMs for the projection of spatial distribution of heat waves in Pakistan}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809519307409 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809519307409},
volume = {233},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kharin2018a,
author = {Kharin, V. V. and Flato, G. M. and Zhang, X. and Gillett, N. P. and Zwiers, F. and Anderson, K. J.},
doi = {10.1002/2018EF000813},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {704--715},
title = {{Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2018EF000813},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kharuk2016,
abstract = {Climate impact on landslide occurrence and spatial patterns were analyzed within the larch-dominant communities associated with continuous permafrost areas of central Siberia. We used high resolution satellite imagery (i.e. QuickBird, WorldView) to identify landslide scars over an area of 62 000 km2. Landslide occurrence was analyzed with respect to climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, drought index SPEI), and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite derived equivalent of water thickness anomalies (EWTA). Landslides were found only on southward facing slopes, and the occurrence of landslides increased exponentially with increasing slope steepness. Lengths of landslides correlated positively with slope steepness. The observed upper elevation limit of landslides tended to coincide with the tree line. Observations revealed landslides occurrence was also found to be strongly correlated with August precipitation (r = 0.81) and drought index (r = 0.7), with June–July–August soil water anomalies (i.e., EWTA, r = 0.68–0.7), and number of thawing days (i.e., a number of days with tmax {\textgreater} 0 °C; r = 0.67). A significant increase in the variance of soil water anomalies was observed, indicating that occurrence of landslides may increase even with a stable mean precipitation level. The key-findings of this study are (1) landslides occurrence increased within the permafrost zone of central Siberia in the beginning of the 21st century; (2) the main cause of increased landslides occurrence are extremes in precipitation and soil water anomalies; and (3) landslides occurrence are strongly dependent on relief features such as southward facing steep slopes.},
author = {Kharuk, Viacheslav I and Shushpanov, Alexandr S and Im, Sergei T and Ranson, Kenneth J},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045004},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {4},
pages = {45004},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Climate-induced landsliding within the larch dominant permafrost zone of central Siberia}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045004},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Khlebnikova2019b,
abstract = {The study considers the problem of detailing climate projections with respect to changes in the precipitation regime over the territory of Russia by the middle of the 21st century. Numerous ensemble calculations with the high-resolution regional climate model are used to obtain the projections of climatic changes concerning the duration of dry and wet spells as well as in the related extremes of the amount and daily intensity of precipitation. The estimates of the trend in the analyzed precipitation characteristics derived from standard meteorological observations are presented for 1966–2015. Important seasonal and regional features of changes in the analyzed parameters of extremity are revealed. It is reasonable to consider these features when adapting to climate change at the regional level.},
author = {Khlebnikova, E. I. and Rudakova, Yu. L. and Shkolnik, I. M.},
doi = {10.3103/S106837391907001X},
issn = {1068-3739},
journal = {Russian Meteorology and Hydrology},
keywords = {Climate change,extremes,precipitation intensity,regional models},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {431--439},
publisher = {Pleiades Publishing},
title = {{Changes in Precipitation Regime over the Territory of Russia: Data of Regional Climate Modeling and Observations}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.3103/S106837391907001X},
volume = {44},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Khlebnikova2019,
abstract = {The study considers the problem of constructing a scenario forecast of changing climatic characteristics of air temperature extremes which are important for the current economy needs. Based on the numerous ensemble experiments with a high-resolution system of models, the probabilistic estimates of future changes in the applied indices of rare temperature extremes over Russia are obtained. Particular attention is given to the quantitative characteristics of uncertainty of the estimates obtained in the middle and the end of the 21st century. The important seasonal and regional features of changes in the analyzed extreme parameters are identified; they should be taken into account when adapting to climate changes at the regional level.},
author = {Khlebnikova, E. I. and Rudakova, Yu L. and Sall', I. A. and Efimov, S. V. and Shkolnik, I. M.},
doi = {10.3103/S1068373919030014},
issn = {1068-3739},
journal = {Russian Meteorology and Hydrology},
keywords = {Climate change,extreme value distribution,extremes,regional models,risks,temperature regime},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {159--168},
publisher = {Pleiades Publishing},
title = {{Changes in Indicators of Temperature Extremes in the 21st Century: Ensemble Projections for the Territory of Russia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373919030014 http://link.springer.com/10.3103/S1068373919030014},
volume = {44},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kieu-Thi2016,
abstract = {This study uses the non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) to simulate and project rainfall and tropical cyclone (TC) activity over Vietnam. The simulated precipitation shows that climatic heavy rainfall centers are well captured in the seasonal march. In near and far future, the projected rainfall by NHRCM using outputs of the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model 3.2 with RCP8.5 scenario will clearly decrease in Northwest and Central Vietnam in June–August, while it will remarkably increase in Northeast and Central Vietnam in September–November. The model underestimates TC number and activity area in the first half of the TC season but slightly overestimates in the second half as compared to the best track. Projected TCs indicate a decrease in both TC number and activity area in near and far future. Moreover, the maximum TC number occurs one month late as compared to the present climate, whereas TC number remarkably decreases in July–August in far future. Rainfall induced by TCs increases in North Vietnam in the projected climate as compared to the baseline period. It also increases in mid-Central Vietnam in near future but decreases in southern Central Vietnam in near and far future. Conversely, non-TC rainfall is likely to decrease in North Vietnam in future and in mid-Central Vietnam in near future but increase in southern Central Vietnam in far future.},
author = {Kieu-Thi, Xin and Vu-Thanh, Hang and Nguyen-Minh, Truong and Le, Duc and Nguyen-Manh, Linh and Takayabu, Izuru and Sasaki, Hidetaka and Kitoh, Akio},
doi = {10.2151/jmsj.2015-057},
issn = {0026-1165},
journal = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Series II},
pages = {135--150},
title = {{Rainfall and Tropical Cyclone Activity over Vietnam Simulated and Projected by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model – NHRCM}},
url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/94A/0/94A{\_}2015-057/{\_}article},
volume = {94A},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Kilroy2015,
author = {Kilroy, Garrett},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-014-0709-6},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
month = {jun},
number = {5},
pages = {771--782},
title = {{A review of the biophysical impacts of climate change in three hotspot regions in Africa and Asia}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-014-0709-6},
volume = {15},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kim2015,
author = {Kim, Ho Gul and Lee, Dongkun and Park, Chan and Kil, Sungho and Son, Yonghoon and Park, Jin Han},
doi = {10.1007/s12665-014-3775-7},
journal = {Environmental Earth Sciences},
number = {3},
pages = {1385--1400},
title = {{Evaluating landslide hazards using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios}},
volume = {73},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kim2016,
author = {Kim, Jongsuk and Kang, Hyunwoong and Son, Chanyoung and Moon, Youngil},
doi = {10.1016/j.jher.2014.12.005},
journal = {Journal of Hydro-environment Research},
pages = {144--151},
title = {{Spatial variations in typhoon activities and precipitation trends over the Korean Peninsula}},
volume = {13},
year = {2016}
}
@misc{Kimball2016a,
abstract = {About twenty-seven years ago, free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) technology was developed that enabled the air above open-field plots to be enriched with CO2 for entire growing seasons. Since then, FACE experiments have been conducted on cotton, wheat, ryegrass, clover, potato, grape, rice, barley, sugar beet, soybean, cassava, rape, mustard, coffee (C3 crops), and sorghum and maize (C4 crops). Elevated CO2 (550 ppm from an ambient concentration of about 353 ppm in 1990) decreased evapotranspiration about 10{\%} on average and increased canopy temperatures about 0.7 °C. Biomass and yield were increased by FACE in all C3 species, but not in C4 species except when water was limiting. Yields of C3 grain crops were increased on average about 19{\%}.},
author = {Kimball, Bruce A.},
booktitle = {Current Opinion in Plant Biology},
doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2016.03.006},
issn = {13695266},
month = {jun},
pages = {36--43},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Crop responses to elevated CO2 and interactions with H2O, N, and temperature}},
volume = {31},
year = {2016}
}
@article{King2015,
author = {King, Andrew D and Donat, Markus G and Fischer, Erich M and Hawkins, Ed and Alexander, Lisa V and Karoly, David J and Dittus, Andrea J and Lewis, Sophie C and Perkins, Sarah E},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {094015},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=9/a=094015?key=crossref.a935293534a16974fd91c08ca82ca603},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kinney2015a,
abstract = {Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest$\backslash$r during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due$\backslash$r to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially$\backslash$r decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are$\backslash$r associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within$\backslash$r individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985?2006) and 3$\backslash$r French cities (1971?2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not$\backslash$r depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that$\backslash$r temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly$\backslash$r strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by$\backslash$r winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the$\backslash$r effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution$\backslash$r of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related$\backslash$r mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of$\backslash$r interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate$\backslash$r change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.},
author = {Kinney, Patrick L. and Schwartz, Joel and Pascal, Mathilde and Petkova, Elisaveta and Tertre, Alain Le and Medina, Sylvia and Vautard, Robert},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064016},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {health,warming temperature,winter},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {064016},
pmid = {26495037},
title = {{Winter season mortality: Will climate warming bring benefits?}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=6/a=064016?key=crossref.f6061c897f7939328e07d08c0454e402},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kinney2015,
author = {Kinney, Patrick L. and Matte, Thomas and Knowlton, Kim and Madrigano, Jaime and Petkova, Elisaveta and Weinberger, Kate and Quinn, Ashlinn and Arend, Mark and Pullen, Julie},
doi = {10.1111/nyas.12588},
issn = {00778923},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {67--88},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report. Chapter 5: Public Health Impacts and Resiliency}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/nyas.12588},
volume = {1336},
year = {2015}
}
@article{KirchmeierYoung2019a,
author = {Kirchmeier-Young, M C and Wan, Hui and Zhang, Xuebin and Seneviratne, Sonia I},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001253},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {1192--1204},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Importance of Framing for Extreme Event Attribution: The Role of Spatial and Temporal Scales}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001253},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kirezci2020,
abstract = {Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48{\%} of the world's land area, 52{\%} of the global population and 46{\%} of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. A total of 68{\%} of the global coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32{\%} due to projected regional sea level rise.},
author = {Kirezci, Ebru and Young, Ian R. and Ranasinghe, Roshanka and Muis, Sanne and Nicholls, Robert J. and Lincke, Daniel and Hinkel, Jochen},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Climate,Physical oceanography,Projection and prediction,change impacts},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {11629},
pmid = {32732976},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67736-6},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kirschbaum2015,
abstract = {Landslide inventories are critical to support investigations of where and when landslides have happened and may occur in the future; however, there is surprisingly little information on the historical occurrence of landslides at the global scale. This paper presents a new publicly available global landslide catalog (GLC), which is based on media reports, online databases, and other sources. This database is currently available at http://ojo-streamer.herokuapp.com/. The 5741 points in the GLC provide a foundation for evaluating spatial and temporal trends in landslide activity from 2007 to 2013. Globally, landslides were reported most frequently from July to September. Most events occurred in Asia, North America and Southeast Asia. In contrast, fewer than 5{\%} of the fatalities were reported in North America, suggesting a significant amount of under-reporting in other regions as well as potential discrepancies between developing and developed regions. Reported landslide events were also compared to satellite-based precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) to evaluate the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and landslide activity. Of the 3550 points considered in a subset of the GLC, approximately 60{\%} of the reported landslides have daily precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile of precipitation calculated over a 14-year TRMM record for the same location. This study also investigated how the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation corresponded to some of the most catastrophic landslide events. In spite of several reporting and cataloging biases, spatial and temporal analysis of the GLC suggests that it is a valuable database for characterizing global patterns of landslide occurrence and evaluating relationships with extreme precipitation at regional and global scales.},
author = {Kirschbaum, Dalia and Stanley, Thomas and Zhou, Yaping},
doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.03.016},
issn = {0169555X},
journal = {Geomorphology},
keywords = {Extreme precipitation,Global analysis,Landslide catalog,Remote sensing,TRMM},
pages = {4--15},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Spatial and temporal analysis of a global landslide catalog}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.03.016},
volume = {249},
year = {2015}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2019GL085347,
abstract = {Abstract High Mountain Asia is impacted by extreme monsoonal rainfall that triggers landslides in large proportions relative to global distributions, resulting in substantial human impacts and damage to infrastructure each year. Previous landslide research has qualitatively estimated how patterns in landslide activity may change based on climate change scenarios. We present the first quantitative view of potential modulation in future landslide activity over the High Mountain Asia region leveraging a new landslide hazard model and precipitation data from satellite and Global Climate Model sources. In doing so, we find that the rate of increase in landslide activity at the end of the century is expected to be greatest over areas covered by current glaciers and glacial lakes, potentially exacerbating the impacts of cascading hazards on populations downstream. This work demonstrates the potential of Global Climate Models and satellite-based precipitation estimates to characterize landslide hazards at time scales affected by climate change.},
annote = {e2019GL085347 2019GL085347},
author = {Kirschbaum, D and Kapnick, S B and Stanley, T and Pascale, S},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL085347},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Global Climate Models,High Mountain Asia,extreme precipitation,landslide modeling,remote sensing},
number = {4},
pages = {e2019GL085347},
title = {{Changes in Extreme Precipitation and Landslides Over High Mountain Asia}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085347},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kirwan2013,
abstract = {Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise},
author = {Kirwan, Matthew L. and Megonigal, J. Patrick},
doi = {10.1038/nature12856},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Climate sciences,Ecology},
month = {dec},
number = {7478},
pages = {53--60},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature12856},
volume = {504},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Kitoh2011,
abstract = {Two 25 year time-slice experiments were conducted using a 20 km mesh global atmospheric model, one for the present (1979{\&}{\#}8211;2003) and the other for the future (2075{\&}{\#}8211;2099). To assess the uncertainty of climate change projections, we performed ensemble simulations with the 60 km mesh model combining 4 different sea surface temperatures and 3 atmospheric initial conditions. Horizontal resolution of these global models is higher than or comparable to that of regional climate models applied to South American climate change projections. Both the 20 km mesh model and 60 km mesh model reproduce sufficiently well the observed seasonal precipitation patterns. These models project an increase in wet-season precipitation and a decrease in dry-season precipitation over most of South America. In the future, almost all over South America, precipitation intensity will increase. In particular, precipitation intensity is largest over the southeast South America in the present-day simulation, where future change is also large, implying an increasing risk of flooding in this region including the Parana River. At the same time a large increase of consecutive dry days is projected over the western part of the Amazon, where the amplitude of the seasonal hydrograph is projected to increase in the Amazon River, implying more floods in wet season and droughts in dry season.},
author = {Kitoh, Akio and Kusunoki, Shoji and Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki},
doi = {10.1029/2010JD014920},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {mar},
number = {D6},
pages = {D06105},
title = {{Climate change projections over South America in the late 21st century with the 20 and 60 km mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM)}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2010JD014920},
volume = {116},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Kjellstrom2018,
abstract = {Abstract. We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2°C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5°C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5°C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2°C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to attenuation or amplification of the climate change signal in the underlying GCMs. We find that the RCMs tend to produce less warming and more precipitation (or less drying) in many areas in both winter and summer.},
author = {Kjellstr{\"{o}}m, Erik and Nikulin, Grigory and Strandberg, Gustav and Christensen, Ole B{\o}ssing and Jacob, Daniela and Keuler, Klaus and Lenderink, Geert and van Meijgaard, Erik and Sch{\"{a}}r, Christoph and Somot, Samuel and S{\o}rland, Silje Lund and Teichmann, Claas and Vautard, Robert},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-459-2018},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {459--478},
title = {{European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/459/2018/},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kjellstrom2016a,
abstract = {We describe the process of building a climate service centred on regional climate model results from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4. The climate service has as its central facility a web service provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute where users can get an idea of various aspects of climate change from a suite of maps, diagrams, explaining texts and user guides. Here we present the contents of the web service and how this has been designed and developed in collaboration with users of the service in a dialogue reaching over more than a decade. We also present the ensemble of climate projections with RCA4 that provides the fundamental climate information presented at the web service. In this context, RCA4 has been used to downscale nine different coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to 0.44° (c. 50 km) horizontal resolution over Europe. Further, we investigate how this ensemble relates to the CMIP5 ensemble. We find that the iterative approach involving the users of the climate service has been successful as the service is widely used and is an important source of information for work on climate adaptation in Sweden. The RCA4 ensemble samples a large degree of the spread in the CMIP5 ensemble implying that it can be used to illustrate uncertainties and robustness in future climate change in Sweden. The results also show that RCA4 changes results compared to the underlying AOGCMs, sometimes in a systematic way.},
author = {Kjellstr{\"{o}}m, Erik and B{\"{a}}rring, Lars and Nikulin, Grigory and Nilsson, Carin and Persson, Gunn and Strandberg, Gustav},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2016.06.004},
isbn = {2405-8807},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
pages = {15--29},
title = {{Production and use of regional climate model projections – A Swedish perspective on building climate services}},
volume = {2-3},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Kjellstrom2016,
abstract = {Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30–40{\%} of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20{\%} by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change–related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.},
author = {Kjellstrom, Tord and Briggs, David and Freyberg, Chris and Lemke, Bruno and Otto, Matthias and Hyatt, Olivia},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032315-021740},
issn = {0163-7525},
journal = {Annual Review of Public Health},
keywords = {climate change,health impacts,human heat exposure,productivity,socioeconomic effects,work capacity},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {97--112},
publisher = {Annual Reviews},
title = {{Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts}},
url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032315-021740},
volume = {37},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Klima2015,
author = {Klima, Kelly and Morgan, M. Granger},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1460-9},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {2},
pages = {209--222},
title = {{Ice storm frequencies in a warmer climate}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-015-1460-9},
volume = {133},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Klos2014,
author = {Klos, P. Zion and Link, Timothy E. and Abatzoglou, John T.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL060500},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,precipitation phase,rain snow transition,rain‐snow transition},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {4560--4568},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Extent of the rain–snow transition zone in the western U.S. under historic and projected climate}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL060500},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Kluver2015,
author = {Kluver, Daria and Leathers, Daniel},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4292},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {cluster analysis,principal components analysis,quantile regression,regionalization,snow frequency,snowfall,trends},
month = {nov},
number = {14},
pages = {4348--4358},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Regionalization of snowfall frequency and trends over the contiguous United States}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4292},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Knaggard2019,
abstract = {Stakeholder interaction is important for enabling environmental research to support the societal transition to sustainability. We argue that it is crucial to take researchers' approaches to and perceptions of stakeholder interaction into account, to enable more clarity in discussions about interaction, as well as more systematic interaction approaches. Through a survey and focus group interviews with environmental researchers at three Swedish universities, we investigate the effects of two models of stakeholder interaction, as well as high and low levels within each. The ‘transfer model' implies that interaction is understood as communication and should be separated from research. The ‘interaction model' implies that interaction happens throughout the research process. Our study shows some significant differences between researchers in the two models, but also between high and low levels of stakeholder interaction regardless of model. The result indicates that the transfer model needs to be considered in studies and practice of stakeholder interaction, but also that the low levels of the interaction model consists of a number of different types of approaches. The major difference between the two models was about how large researchers understood the benefits and risks with stakeholder interaction to be. Transfer researchers saw interaction as a threat to the integrity of research, whereas interaction researchers saw it as enabling research.},
author = {Knagg{\aa}rd, {\AA}sa and Slunge, Daniel and Ekbom, Anders and G{\"{o}}thberg, Maria and Sahlin, Ullrika},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2019.03.008},
issn = {18736416},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Policy},
keywords = {Environmental scientists,Interaction model,Knowledge use,Science-society interface,Stakeholder interaction,Transfer model},
month = {jul},
pages = {25--35},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Researchers' approaches to stakeholders: Interaction or transfer of knowledge?}},
volume = {97},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Knoll2019,
abstract = {People extensively use lakes and rivers covered by seasonal ice. Although ice cover duration has been declining over the past 150 years for Northern Hemisphere freshwaters, we know relatively little about how ice loss directly affects humans. Here, we synthesize the cultural ecosystem services (i.e., services that provide intangible or nonmaterial benefits) and associated benefits supported by inland ice. We also provide, for the first time, empirical examples that give quantitative evidence for a winter warming effect on a wide range of ice-related cultural ecosystem services and benefits. We show that in recent decades, warmer air temperatures delayed the opening date of winter ice roads and led to cancellations of spiritual ceremonies, outdoor ice skating races, and ice fishing tournaments. Additionally, our synthesis effort suggests unexploited data sets that allow for the use of integrative approaches to evaluate the interplay between inland ice loss and society.},
author = {Knoll, Lesley B. and Sharma, Sapna and Denfeld, Blaize A. and Flaim, Giovanna and Hori, Yukari and Magnuson, John J. and Straile, Dietmar and Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.},
doi = {10.1002/lol2.10116},
issn = {23782242},
journal = {Limnology And Oceanography Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {119--131},
publisher = {Wiley},
title = {{Consequences of lake and river ice loss on cultural ecosystem services}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/lol2.10116},
volume = {4},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Knouft2017a,
abstract = {Ongoing increases in air temperature and changing precipitation patterns are altering water temperatures and flow regimes in lotic freshwater systems, and these changes are expected to continue in the coming century. Freshwater taxa are responding to these changes at all levels of biological organization. The generation of appropriate hydrologic and water temperature projections is critical to accurately predict the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems in the coming decade. The goal of this review is to provide an overview of how changes in climate affect hydrologic processes and how climate-induced changes in freshwater habitat can impact the life histories and traits of individuals, and the distributions of freshwater populations and biodiversity. Projections of biological responses during the coming century will depend on accurately representing the spatially varying sensitivity of physical systems to changes in climate, as well as acknowledging the spatially varying sensitivity of freshwater taxa to changes in environmental conditions.},
author = {Knouft, Jason H and Ficklin, Darren L},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110316-022803},
issn = {1543-592X},
journal = {Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics},
keywords = {hydrology,population sensitivity,species distributions,water temperature},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {111--133},
publisher = {Annual Reviews},
title = {{The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Flowing Freshwater Systems}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110316-022803 http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110316-022803},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Knutson2015,
abstract = {AbstractGlobal projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) HiRAM (50 km grid) atmospheric model and the GFDL Hurricane Model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using the HiRAM atmospheric model. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL Hurricane Model, with horizontal grid-spacing near the storm of 6 km, and including ocean coupling (e.g., ‘cold wake' generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980-2008); for a “control run” with 20 repeating seasonal cycles; and for a late 21st century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained from a CMIP5/RCP4.5 multi-model ensemble. In general agreement with most previous studies, projections with this framework indicate fewer tropical cyclones globally in a warmer late-21st-century climate, but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, precipitation rates, and in the number ...},
author = {Knutson, Thomas R. and Sirutis, Joseph J. and Zhao, Ming and Tuleya, Robert E. and Bender, Morris and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Villarini, Gabriele and Chavas, Daniel},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0129.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Hurricanes/typhoons},
number = {18},
pages = {7203--7224},
title = {{Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios}},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Knutson2016,
abstract = {One of the most consequential impacts of anthropogenic warming on humans may be increased heat stress, combining temperature and humidity effects. Here we examine whether there are now detectable changes in summertime heat stress over land regions. As a heat stress metric we use a simplified wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index. Observed trends in WBGT (1973–2012) are compared to trends from CMIP5 historical simulations (eight-model ensemble) using either anthropogenic and natural forcing agents combined or natural forcings alone. Our analysis suggests that there has been a detectable anthropogenic increase in mean summertime heat stress since 1973, both globally and in most land regions analyzed. A detectable increase is found over a larger fraction of land for WBGT than for temperature, as WBGT summertime means have lower interannual variability than surface temperature at gridbox scales. Notably, summertime WBGT over land has continued increasing in recent years–consistent with climate models–despite the apparent ‘hiatus' in global warming and despite a decreasing tendency in observed relative humidity over land since the late 1990s.},
author = {Knutson, Thomas R. and Ploshay, Jeffrey J.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1708-z},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {sep},
number = {1-2},
pages = {25--39},
title = {{Detection of anthropogenic influence on a summertime heat stress index}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1708-z},
volume = {138},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Knutson2020,
abstract = {Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that are projected to impact multiple regions. A 2°C anthropogenic global warming is projected to impact TC activity as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection is that sea level rise accompanying the warming will lead to higher storm inundation levels, assuming all other factors are unchanged. 2) For TC precipitation rates, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase globally, with a median projected increase of 14{\%}, or close to the rate of tropical water vapor increase with warming, at constant relative humidity. 3) For TC intensity, 10 of 11 authors had at least medium-to-high confidence that the global average will increase. The median projected increase in lifetime maximum surface wind speeds is about 5{\%} (range: 1{\%}–10{\%}) in available higher-resolution studies. 4) For the global proportion (as opposed to frequency) of TCs that reach very intense (category 4–5) levels, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase, with a median projected change of +13{\%}. Author opinion was more mixed and confidence levels lower for the following projections: 5) a further poleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North Pacific; 6) a decrease of global TC frequency, as projected in most studies; 7) an increase in global very intense TC frequency (category 4–5), seen most prominently in higher-resolution models; and 8) a slowdown in TC translation speed.},
author = {Knutson, Thomas R. and Camargo, Suzana J and Chan, Johnny C L and Emanuel, Kerry and Ho, Chang-Hoi and Kossin, James and Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay and Satoh, Masaki and Sugi, Masato and Walsh, Kevin and Wu, Liguang},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {E303--E322},
title = {{Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1},
volume = {101},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Knutson2018c,
author = {Knutson, Thomas R. and Zeng, Fanrong},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0672.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Anthropogenic effects,Atmosphere,Climate change,Climate models,Precipitation},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4617--4637},
title = {{Model assessment of observed precipitation trends over land regions: Detectable human influences and possible low bias in model trends}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0672.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Knutson2019,
abstract = {An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable in observations and whether any changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Overall, historical data suggest detectable TC activity changes in some regions associated with TC track changes, while data quality and quantity issues create greater challenges for analyses based on TC intensity and frequency. A number of specific published conclusions (case studies) about possible detectable anthropogenic influence on TCs were assessed using the conventional approach of preferentially avoiding type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection). We conclude there is at least low to medium confidence that the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific is detectable, or highly unusual compared to expected natural variability. Opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence, or whether any other observed changes represent detectable changes. The issue was then reframed by assessing evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence while seeking to reduce the chance of type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection). For this purpose, we used a much weaker “balance of evidence” criterion for assessment. This leads to a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection) but which may be useful for risk assessment. Several examples of these alternative statements, derived using this approach, are presented in the report.},
author = {Knutson, Thomas R. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Chan, Johnny C. L. and Emanuel, Kerry and Ho, Chang-Hoi Changhoi and Kossin, James and Mohapatra, Mrutyunjay and Satoh, Masaki and Sugi, Masato and Walsh, Kevin and Wu, Liguang},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {1987--2007},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/10/bams-d-18-0189.1.xml https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Simpson https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/100/10/1987/344805/Tropical-Cyclone},
volume = {100},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Knutti2019,
abstract = {Scientific understanding of climate change has accelerated in recent decades, but climate action has not kept pace. As the impacts of climate change become increasingly evident and public concern gains momentum, it is a pivotal time to consider the role of science in closing the gap between knowledge and action.},
author = {Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.001},
issn = {25903322},
journal = {One Earth},
month = {sep},
number = {1},
pages = {21--23},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
title = {{Closing the Knowledge–Action Gap in Climate Change}},
volume = {1},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kokelj2015,
abstract = {It is anticipated that an increase in rainfall will have significant impacts on the geomorphology of permafrost landscapes. Field observations, remote sensing and historical climate data were used to investigate the drivers, processes and feedbacks that perpetuate the growth of large retrogressive thaw slumps. These "mega slumps" (5-40ha) are now common in formerly glaciated, fluvially incised, ice-cored terrain of the Peel Plateau, NW Canada. Individual thaw slumps can persist for decades and their enlargement due to ground ice thaw can displace up to 106m3 of materials from slopes to valley bottoms reconfiguring slope morphology and drainage networks. Analysis of Landsat images (1985-2011) indicate that the number and size of active slumps and debris tongue deposits has increased significantly with the recent intensification of rainfall. The analyses of high resolution climatic and photographic time-series for summers 2010 and 2012 shows strong linkages amongst temperature, precipitation and the downslope sediment flux from active slumps. Ground ice thaw supplies meltwater and sediments to the slump scar zone and drives diurnal pulses of surficial flow. Coherence in the timing of down valley debris tongue deposition and fine-scaled observations of sediment flux indicate that heavy rainfall stimulates major mass flow events. Evacuation of sediments from the slump scar zone can help to maintain a headwall of exposed ground ice, perpetuating slump growth and leading to larger disturbances. The development of debris tongue deposits divert streams and increase thermoerosion to initiate adjacent slumps. We conclude that higher rainfall can intensify thaw slump activity and rapidly alter the slope-sediment cascade in regions of ice-cored glaciogenic deposits.},
author = {Kokelj, S. V. and Tunnicliffe, J. and Lacelle, D. and Lantz, T. C. and Chin, K. S. and Fraser, R.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.02.008},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Ground ice,Landscape change,Mass wasting,Permafrost,Rainfall intensity,Thaw slump,Thermokarst},
month = {jun},
pages = {56--68},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Increased precipitation drives mega slump development and destabilization of ice-rich permafrost terrain, northwestern Canada}},
volume = {129},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Koks2019,
abstract = {Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world. Here we present the first global estimates of multi-hazard exposure and risk to road and rail infrastructure. Results reveal that {\~{}}27{\%} of all global road and railway assets are exposed to at least one hazard and {\~{}}7.5{\%} of all assets are exposed to a 1/100 year flood event. Global Expected Annual Damages (EAD) due to direct damage to road and railway assets range from 3.1 to 22 billion US dollars, of which {\~{}}73{\%} is caused by surface and river flooding. Global EAD are small relative to global GDP ({\~{}}0.02{\%}). However, in some countries EAD reach 0.5 to 1{\%} of GDP annually, which is the same order of magnitude as national transport infrastructure budgets. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that increasing flood protection would have positive returns on {\~{}}60{\%} of roads exposed to a 1/100 year flood event.},
author = {Koks, E. E. and Rozenberg, J. and Zorn, C. and Tariverdi, M. and Vousdoukas, M. and Fraser, S. A. and Hall, J. W. and Hallegatte, S.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10442-3},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Environmental impact,Natural hazards},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {2677},
pmid = {31239442},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10442-3 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10442-3},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kolberg2019,
abstract = {In cold-temperate climate with high soil water content in spring, the farmer often faces the choice between topsoil compaction during seedbed preparation and delayed sowing, both of which may reduce attainable cereal yield. The objective of this study was to explore whether future climate change with increasing precipitation would aggravate this dilemma. We generated weather based on historical and projected future climate in South-eastern and Central Norway. Using this weather data as input, we simulated spring workability, attainable yield, timeliness costs, and mechanization management with a workability model and a mechanization model. The projected climate changes resulted in improved workability for spring fieldwork and higher attainable yield in South-eastern Norway, and either positive or negative changes in Central Norway compared to historical conditions. We observed a general increase in variability of workability and attainable yield, and a larger risk of extremely unfavourable years in the most unfavourable scenarios in Central Norway. Changes in profitability and mechanization management were small, but followed the same pattern. The negative effects in the most unfavourable climate scenarios in Central Norway were in contrast to positive effects in earlier studies. We explained discrepancies by differences in research methods and purpose. However, simulated sowing dates of annual crops should consider workability of the soil, in terms of water content. Under worst-case conditions, in need of a certain time window to complete their spring fieldwork, farmers might adapt to impaired spring workability by working the soil at higher water content than simulated in our study. The consequence would be a larger loss of attainable yield and less profitability in the future. We anticipate that negative effects may also be expected in other northern cold-temperate regions with high soil water content in spring.},
author = {Kolberg, Dorothee and Persson, Tomas and Mangerud, Kjell and Riley, Hugh},
doi = {10.1016/j.still.2018.09.002},
issn = {01671987},
journal = {Soil and Tillage Research},
keywords = {Delayed sowing,Seedbed preparation,Topsoil compaction},
month = {jan},
pages = {122--138},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Impact of projected climate change on workability, attainable yield, profitability and farm mechanization in Norwegian spring cereals}},
volume = {185},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kolstad2019,
author = {Kolstad, Erik W and Sofienlund, Oda N. and Kvams{\aa}s, Hanna and Stiller-Reeve, Mathew A. and Neby, Simon and Paasche, {\O}yvind and Pontoppidan, Marie and Sobolowski, Stefan P. and Haarstad, H{\aa}vard and Oseland, Stina E. and Omdahl, Lene and Waage, Snorre},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0201.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {1419--1428},
title = {{Trials, Errors, and Improvements in Coproduction of Climate Services}},
url = {file:///C:/Users/janasi/Downloads/trials{\_}preprint (1).pdf http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0201.1},
volume = {100},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kopytko2011,
abstract = {Many policy-makers view nuclear power as a mitigation for climate change. Efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change, however, interact with existing and new nuclear power plants, and these installations must contend with dilemmas between adaptation and mitigation. This paper develops five criteria to assess the adaptation–mitigation dilemma on two major points: (1) the ability of nuclear power to adapt to climate change and (2) the potential for nuclear power operation to hinder climate change adaptation. Sea level rise models for nine coastal sites in the United States, a review of US Nuclear Regulatory Commission documents, and reports from France's nuclear regulatory agency provided insights into issues that have arisen from sea level rise, shoreline erosion, coastal storms, floods, and heat waves. Applying the criteria to inland and coastal nuclear power plants reveals several weaknesses. Safety stands out as the primary concern at coastal locations, while inland locations encounter greater problems with interrupted operation. Adapting nuclear power to climate change entails either increased expenses for construction and operation or incurs significant costs to the environment and public health and welfare. Mere absence of greenhouse gas emissions is not sufficient to assess nuclear power as a mitigation for climate change.},
author = {Kopytko, Natalie and Perkins, John},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2010.09.046},
issn = {03014215},
journal = {Energy Policy},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {318--333},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Climate change, nuclear power, and the adaptation–mitigation dilemma}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421510007329 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421510007329},
volume = {39},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Kormos2016,
author = {Kormos, Patrick R. and Luce, Charles H. and Wenger, Seth J. and Berghuijs, Wouter R.},
doi = {10.1002/2015WR018125},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {drought,hydrologic drought,precipitation sensitivity,streamflow sensitivity,temperature sensitivity,trend analysis},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {4990--5007},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Trends and sensitivities of low streamflow extremes to discharge timing and magnitude in Pacific Northwest mountain streams}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015WR018125},
volume = {52},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Kornhuber2020,
author = {Kornhuber, Kai and Coumou, Dim and Vogel, Elisabeth and Lesk, Corey and Donges, Jonathan F. and Lehmann, Jascha and Horton, Radley M.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0637-z},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {48--53},
title = {{Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0637-z},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Korres2016,
author = {Korres, Nicholas E. and Norsworthy, Jason K. and Tehranchian, Parsa and Gitsopoulos, Thomas K. and Loka, Dimitra A. and Oosterhuis, Derrick M. and Gealy, David R. and Moss, Stephen R. and Burgos, Nilda R. and Miller, M. Ryan and Palhano, Matheus},
doi = {10.1007/s13593-016-0350-5},
issn = {1774-0746},
journal = {Agronomy for Sustainable Development},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {12},
publisher = {Springer Paris},
title = {{Cultivars to face climate change effects on crops and weeds: a review}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13593-016-0350-5},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Kossin2017,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Kossin, J. P and Hall, T. and Knutson, T. and Kunkel, K. E. and Trapp, R. J. and Waliser, D. E. and Wehner, M. F.},
booktitle = {Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I},
doi = {10.7930/J07S7KXX},
editor = {Wuebbles, D.J. and Fahey, D.W. and Hibbard, K.A. and Dokken, D.J. and Stewart, B.C. and Maycock, T.K.},
pages = {257--276},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Extreme storms}},
url = {https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/9/},
volume = {1},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kossin2016a,
abstract = {The average latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their peak intensity has been observed to be shifting poleward in some regions over the past 30 years, apparently in concert with the independently observed expansion of the tropical belt. This poleward migration is particularly well-observed and robust in the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP). Such a migration is expected to cause systematic changes, both increases and decreases, in regional hazard exposure and risk, particularly if it persists through the present century. Here we show that the past poleward migration in the WNP has coincided with decreased TC exposure in the region of the Philippine and South China Seas, including the Marianas and Philippines, Vietnam, and Southern China, and increased exposure in the region of the East China Sea, including Japan and the Ryukyu Islands, Korea, and parts of eastern China. Additionally, we show that projections of WNP TCs simulated by, and downscaled from, an ensemble of numerical Coupled Mo...},
author = {Kossin, James P. and Emanuel, Kerry A. and Camargo, Suzana J.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0076.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena,Climate models,Geographic location/entity,Hurricanes/typhoons,Models and modeling,Multidecadal variability,North Pacific Ocean,Pacific decadal oscillation,Trends,Variability},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {5725--5739},
title = {{Past and Projected Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Exposure}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0076.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Kossin2017a,
abstract = {The North Atlantic ocean/atmosphere environment exhibits pronounced interdecadal variability that is known to strongly modulate Atlantic hurricane activity1,2,3,4,5,6. Variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is correlated with hurricane variability through its relationship with the genesis and thermodynamic potential intensity of hurricanes7. Another key factor that governs the genesis and intensity of hurricanes is ambient environmental vertical wind shear8,9,10 (VWS). Warmer SSTs generally correlate with more frequent genesis and greater potential intensity, while VWS inhibits genesis and prevents any hurricanes that do form from reaching their potential intensity. When averaged over the main hurricane-development region in the Atlantic, SST and VWS co-vary inversely11,12, so that the two factors act in concert to either enhance or inhibit basin-wide hurricane activity. Here I show, however, that conditions conducive to greater basin-wide Atlantic hurricane activity occur together with conditions for more probable weakening of hurricanes near the United States coast. Thus, the VWS and SST form a protective barrier along the United States coast during periods of heightened basin-wide hurricane activity. Conversely, during the most-recent period of basin-wide quiescence, hurricanes (and particularly major hurricanes) near the United States coast, although substantially less frequent, exhibited much greater variability in their rate of intensification, and were much more likely to intensify rapidly. Such heightened variability poses greater challenges to operational forecasting and, consequently, greater coastal risk during hurricane events.},
author = {Kossin, James P.},
doi = {10.1038/nature20783},
journal = {Nature},
pages = {390--393},
title = {{Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods}},
volume = {541},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kovacs2017a,
author = {Kov{\'{a}}cs, Attila and Nemeth, Akos and Unger, J{\'{a}}nos and K{\'{a}}ntor, No{\'{e}}mi},
journal = {Idojaras, Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {79--99},
title = {{Tourism climatic conditions of Hungary – Present situation and assessment of future changes}},
url = {https://www.met.hu/en/ismeret-tar/kiadvanyok/idojaras/index.php?id=548},
volume = {121},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kovats2004,
abstract = {We investigated the relationship between environmental temperature and reported Salmonella infections in 10 European populations. Poisson regression adapted for time-series data was used to estimate the percentage change in the number of cases associated with a 1 °C increase in average temperature above an identified threshold value. We found, on average, a linear association between temperature and the number of reported cases of salmonellosis above a threshold of 6 °C. The relationships were very similar in The Netherlands, England and Wales, Switzerland, Spain and the Czech Republic. The greatest effect was apparent for temperature 1 week before the onset of illness. The strongest associations were observed in adults in the 15–64 years age group and infection with Salmonella Enteritidis (a serotype of Salmonella). Our findings indicate that higher temperatures around the time of consumption are important and reinforce the need for further education on food-handling behaviour.},
author = {Kovats, R. S. and Edwards, S. J. and Hajat, S. and Armstrong, B. G. and Ebi, K. L. and Menne, B.},
doi = {10.1017/S0950268804001992},
issn = {0950-2688},
journal = {Epidemiology and Infection},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {443--453},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{The effect of temperature on food poisoning: a time-series analysis of salmonellosis in ten European countries}},
url = {http://www.journals.cambridge.org/abstract{\_}S0950268804001992},
volume = {132},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Kraaijenbrink2017,
abstract = {Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia (HMA) make a substantial contribution to the water supply of millions of people1,2, and they are retreating and losing mass as a result of anthropogenic climate change3 at similar rates to those seen elsewhere4,5. In the Paris Agreement of 2015, 195 nations agreed on the aspiration to limit the level of global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius ( °C) above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not known what an increase of 1.5 °C would mean for the glaciers in HMA. Here we show that a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C will lead to a warming of 2.1 ± 0.1 °C in HMA, and that 64 ± 7 per cent of the present-day ice mass stored in the HMA glaciers will remain by the end of the century. The 1.5 °C goal is extremely ambitious and is projected by only a small number of climate models of the conservative IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 ensemble. Projections for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 reveal that much of the glacier ice is likely to disappear, with projected mass losses of 49 ± 7 per cent, 51 ± 6 per cent and 64 ± 5 per cent, respectively, by the end of the century; these projections have potentially serious consequences for regional water management and mountain communities.},
author = {Kraaijenbrink, P D A and Bierkens, Marc F P and Lutz, A F and Immerzeel, W W},
doi = {10.1038/nature23878},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {sep},
number = {7671},
pages = {257--260},
title = {{Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's glaciers}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature23878},
volume = {549},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Krishnan2019b,
abstract = {Historically, the climate of the HKH has experienced significant changes that are closely related to the rise and fall of regional cultures and civilizations. Studies show well-established evidence that climate drivers of tropical and extra-tropical origin—such as the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Arctic Oscillation—influence the region's weather and climate on multiple spatio-temporal scales.},
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Krishnan, Raghavan and Shrestha, Arun B and Ren, Guoyu and Rajbhandari, Rupak and Saeed, Sajjad and Sanjay, Jayanarayanan and Syed, Md. Abu and Vellore, Ramesh and Xu, Ying and You, Qinglong and Ren, Yuyu},
booktitle = {The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_3},
editor = {Wester, Philippus and Mishra, Arabinda and Mukherji, Aditi and Shrestha, Arun Bhakta},
isbn = {978-3-319-92288-1},
pages = {57--97},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Unravelling Climate Change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Rapid Warming in the Mountains and Increasing Extremes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1{\_}3},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{Krist2014,
abstract = {This report on the 2012 National Insect and Disease Risk Map (NIDRM) contains a nationwide strategic assessment of the hazard of tree mortality due to insects and diseases, displayed as a series of maps.},
address = {Fort Collins, CO, USA},
author = {Krist, Frank J. and Ellenwood, James R. and Woods, Meghan E. and McMahan, Andrew J. and Cowardin, John P. and Ryerson, Daniel E. and Sapio, Frank J. and Zweifler, Mark O. and Romero, Sheryl A.},
pages = {209},
publisher = {Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET), United States Forest Service},
series = {FHTET-14-01},
title = {{2013–2027 National insect and disease forest risk assessment}},
url = {https://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/pdfs/2012{\_}RiskMap{\_}Report{\_}web.pdf},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Kroeker2013,
abstract = {Ocean acidification represents a threat to marine species worldwide, and forecasting the ecological impacts of acidification is a high priority for science, management, and policy. As research on the topic expands at an exponential rate, a comprehensive understanding of the variability in organisms' responses and corresponding levels of certainty is necessary to forecast the ecological effects. Here, we perform the most comprehensive meta-analysis to date by synthesizing the results of 228 studies examining biological responses to ocean acidification. The results reveal decreased survival, calcification, growth, development and abundance in response to acidification when the broad range of marine organisms is pooled together. However, the magnitude of these responses varies among taxonomic groups, suggesting there is some predictable trait-based variation in sensitivity, despite the investigation of approximately 100 new species in recent research. The results also reveal an enhanced sensitivity of mollusk larvae, but suggest that an enhanced sensitivity of early life history stages is not universal across all taxonomic groups. In addition, the variability in species' responses is enhanced when they are exposed to acidification in multi-species assemblages, suggesting that it is important to consider indirect effects and exercise caution when forecasting abundance patterns from single-species laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the results suggest that other factors, such as nutritional status or source population, could cause substantial variation in organisms' responses. Last, the results highlight a trend towards enhanced sensitivity to acidification when taxa are concurrently exposed to elevated seawater temperature.},
author = {Kroeker, Kristy J. and Kordas, Rebecca L. and Crim, Ryan and Hendriks, Iris E. and Ramajo, Laura and Singh, Gerald S. and Duarte, Carlos M. and Gattuso, Jean-Pierre},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.12179},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1884--1896},
pmid = {23505245},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.12179},
volume = {19},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Krueger2017,
abstract = {Coral reefs are currently experiencing substantial ecological impoverishment as a result of anthropogenic stressors, and the majority of reefs are facing immediate risk. Increasing ocean surface temperatures induce frequent coral mass bleaching events—the breakdown of the nutritional photo-symbiosis with intracellular algae (genus: Symbiodinium ). Here, we report that Stylophora pistillata from a highly diverse reef in the Gulf of Aqaba showed no signs of bleaching despite spending 1.5 months at 1–2°C above their long-term summer maximum (amounting to 11 degree heating weeks) and a seawater pH of 7.8. Instead, their symbiotic dinoflagellates exhibited improved photochemistry, higher pigmentation and a doubling in net oxygen production, leading to a 51{\%} increase in primary productivity. Nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry imaging revealed subtle cellular-level shifts in carbon and nitrogen metabolism under elevated temperatures, but overall host and symbiont biomass proxies were not significantly affected. Now living well below their thermal threshold in the Gulf of Aqaba, these corals have been evolutionarily selected for heat tolerance during their migration through the warm Southern Red Sea after the last ice age. This may allow them to withstand future warming for a longer period of time, provided that successful environmental conservation measures are enacted across national boundaries in the region.},
author = {Krueger, Thomas and Horwitz, Noa and Bodin, Julia and Giovani, Maria-Evangelia and Escrig, St{\'{e}}phane and Meibom, Anders and Fine, Maoz},
doi = {10.1098/rsos.170038},
issn = {2054-5703},
journal = {Royal Society Open Science},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {170038},
publisher = {The Royal Society Publishing},
title = {{Common reef-building coral in the Northern Red Sea resistant to elevated temperature and acidification}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.170038},
volume = {4},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kruk2017,
abstract = {Within the realm of climate and environmental sciences, stakeholder engagement has traditionally been given a relative low priority in favor of generating tools, products, and services following the longstanding practice of pushing out information in the hopes users will pull it into their decision toolkits. However, the landscape is gradually shifting away from that paradigm and toward one in which the stakeholder community is more directly involved in the production of products and services with the scientific organization. This mutual learning arrangement, referred to as the coproduction of knowledge, has been applied to two user engagement activities within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the NOAA Office of Coastal Management (OCM) Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP). The iterative nature of such dialogues helped scientists within NCEI and OCM to better understand user requirements and as a result generate climate information that was locally relevant and regionally applicable. The recent engagement activities exemplified the benefits of a robust and sustained relationship between climate scientists and the user community. They demonstrate that the interactions between the two led to the empowerment of the local community to shape and mold climate information products as well as further enhancing user buy in of these products and services with which local agriculture and food security, disaster risk reduction, energy, health, and water decisions are being made. This coproduction of knowledge model for user engagement activities also serves to build trust between the scientific and user communities.},
author = {Kruk, Michael C. and Parker, Britt and Marra, John J. and Werner, Kevin and Heim, Richard and Vose, Russell and Malsale, Philip},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0127.1},
issn = {19488335},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
month = {oct},
number = {4},
pages = {839--849},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Engaging with users of climate information and the coproduction of knowledge}},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Krysanova2017,
abstract = {An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971–2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070–2099 in relation to the reference period 1975–2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q 10 and Q 90 , as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q 10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins were 57{\%} for GCMs, 27{\%} for RCPs, and 16{\%} for hydrological models.},
author = {Krysanova, Valentina and Vetter, Tobias and Eisner, Stephanie and Huang, Shaochun and Pechlivanidis, Ilias and Strauch, Michael and Gelfan, Alexander and Kumar, Rohini and Aich, Valentin and Arheimer, Berit and Chamorro, Alejandro and van Griensven, Ann and Kundu, Dipangkar and Lobanova, Anastasia and Mishra, Vimal and Pl{\"{o}}tner, Stefan and Reinhardt, Julia and Seidou, Ousmane and Wang, Xiaoyan and Wortmann, Michel and Zeng, Xiaofan and Hattermann, Fred F},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359},
isbn = {1748-9326},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {10},
pages = {105002},
title = {{Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide – a synthesis}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359{\%}0Ahttp://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/12/i=10/a=105002?key=crossref.929c1b3520f88ed310cd7bc4ced4affa},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Kuleshov2010,
author = {Kuleshov, Y. and Fawcett, R. and Qi, L. and Trewin, B. and Jones, D. and McBride, J. and Ramsay, H.},
doi = {10.1029/2009JD012372},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Southern Hemisphere,trends,tropical cyclones},
month = {jan},
number = {D1},
pages = {D01101},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Trends in tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2009JD012372},
volume = {115},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Kulp2019,
abstract = {Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA's SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to reduce SRTM error. Here we show – employing CoastalDEM—that 190 M people (150–250 M, 90{\%} CI) currently occupy global land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions, up from 110 M today, for a median increase of 80 M. These figures triple SRTM-based values. Under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 250 M below 1 m. Accurate estimates of global mean sea-level rise are important. Here the authors employ a new digital elevation model (DEM) utilizing neural networks and show that the new DEM more than triples the NASA SRTM-based estimates of current global population occupying land below projected sea levels in 2100, with more than 200 million people could be affected based on RCP4.5 and 2 degC of warming.},
author = {Kulp, Scott A. and Strauss, Benjamin H.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Climate,Projection and prediction,change impacts},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {4844},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kumar2019,
abstract = {Meteorological drought in India arises due to significant deficiency of rainfall for abnormal periods over an area. The large spatial and temporal variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Eastern Gangetic Plain (EGP) of India triggers meteorological drought (further leading to agricultural and hydrological drought), with widespread effects on both agricultural production and water resources over the area. To assess meteorological drought over agro-climatic zones of the states of Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar and West Bengal (WB) in the EGP, high-resolution gridded rainfall data (1961–2013) at resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° of India Meteorological Department (IMD) and u, v wind at 850 hPa at resolution of 0.25 × 0.25° of ERA-40 (1961–2002) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is considered. Over the agro-climatic zones, the seasonality index (SI) of summer monsoon rainfall, spatial and temporal distribution of the 4-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-4), frequency and probability of drought occurrence is estimated. The severe drought-prone zones are found to be over agro-climatic zones 6, 8 and 10 of UP; 1, 2 and 3B of Bihar with more than 50{\%} probability of drought occurrence. At a 95{\%} confidence level, a significant decrease in rainfall (for the period 1961–2013) is found over these zones. Over the EGP, a low-level easterly wind at 850 hPa in July is shifted towards foothills of the Himalaya, while in August it is weakened during drought conditions. This low-level easterly wind may be responsible for less moisture incursion over the Gangetic Plain from the Bay of Bengal, and may be the probable cause of less rainfall over the EGP, leading to meteorological drought.},
author = {Kumar, Sunny and Kumar, Praveen and Barat, Archisman and Sinha, Ashutosh K and Sarthi, P Parth and Ranjan, Prabhat and Singh, K K},
doi = {10.1007/s00024-019-02118-2},
issn = {1420-9136},
journal = {Pure and Applied Geophysics},
number = {6},
pages = {2679--2696},
title = {{Characteristics of Observed Meteorological Drought and its Linkage with Low-Level Easterly Wind Over India}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02118-2},
volume = {176},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kumar2020,
abstract = {The study analysed the spatiotemporal variation in extreme precipitation and temperature at the daily scale across India using eight indices of climate change suggested by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). For this analysis, latest high-resolution India Meteorological Department (IMD) data for the period 1971–2017 (precipitation) and 1971–2013 (temperature) are used along with global gridded reanalysis products. The trends are evaluated using non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and regression analysis. At the annual scale, about 13{\%} of the locations indicated significant trend (either increasing or decreasing at 5{\%} significance level) in the index R95p (rainfall contribution from extreme ‘wet days') while 20{\%} of the locations indicated significant trend in R5p (rainfall contribution from extreme ‘dry days'). For the seasonal analysis (June to September), the corresponding figures are nil and 21{\%} respectively. The number of ‘warm days' per year increased significantly at 14{\%} of the locations, while the number of ‘cold days', ‘warm nights' and ‘cold nights' per year decreased significantly at several (42{\%}, 34{\%} and 39{\%}) of the locations. The extreme temperature indices for the future (using CanESM2 projected data for RCP8.5 after suitable bias correction) show significant increasing (decreasing) trend in warm days (cold days) in most (49{\%} to 84{\%}) of the locations. Further, most locations (varying from 60 to 81{\%}) show an increasing trend in warm nights and a decreasing trend in cold nights. Similar analysis for the historical and future period are also performed using Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) reanalysis data as the reference and the trends, on comparison with IMD data, seem to be in agreement for temperature extremes but spatially more extensive in case of CPC precipitation extremes.},
author = {Kumar, Sachidanand and Chanda, Kironmala and Pasupuleti, Srinivas},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-020-03088-5},
issn = {1434-4483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
number = {1},
pages = {343--357},
title = {{Spatiotemporal analysis of extreme indices derived from daily precipitation and temperature for climate change detection over India}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03088-5},
volume = {140},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kumar2018a,
author = {Kumar, Devashish and Ganguly, Auroop R},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3914-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {207--219},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3914-4},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kumar2015c,
abstract = {Wind extremes have consequences for renewable energy sectors, critical infrastructures, coastal ecosystems, and insurance industry. Considerable debates remain regarding the impacts of climate change on wind extremes. While climate models have occasionally shown increases in regional wind extremes, a decline in the magnitude of mean and extreme near-surface wind speeds has been recently reported over most regions of the Northern Hemisphere using observed data. Previous studies of wind extremes under climate change have focused on selected regions and employed outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs ultimately rely on the outputs of global circulation models (GCMs), and the value-addition from the former over the latter has been questioned. Regional model runs rarely employ the full suite of GCM ensembles, and hence may not be able to encapsulate the most likely projections or their variability. Here we evaluate the performance of the latest generation of GCMs, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in simulating extreme winds. We find that the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean captures the spatial variability of annual maximum wind speeds over most regions except over the mountainous terrains. However, the historical temporal trends in annual maximum wind speeds for the reanalysis data, ERA-Interim, are not well represented in the GCMs. The historical trends in extreme winds from GCMs are statistically not significant over most regions. The MME model simulates the spatial patterns of extreme winds for 25–100 year return periods. The projected extreme winds from GCMs exhibit statistically less significant trends compared to the historical reference period.},
author = {Kumar, Devashish and Mishra, Vimal and Ganguly, Auroop R},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2306-2},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {441--453},
title = {{Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2306-2},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Kundzewicz2014,
abstract = {A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report—Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of2 Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz et al. those changes and that presently we have only low confidence1 in numerical projections of changes in flood magnitude or frequency resulting from climate change.},
author = {Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. and Kanae, Shinjiro and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Handmer, John and Nicholls, Neville and Peduzzi, Pascal and Mechler, Reinhard and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Arnell, Nigel and Mach, Katharine and Muir-Wood, Robert and Brakenridge, G. Robert and Kron, Wolfgang and Benito, Gerardo and Honda, Yasushi and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Sherstyukov, Boris},
doi = {10.1080/02626667.2013.857411},
isbn = {0262-6667},
issn = {0262-6667},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
keywords = {attribution,changement climatique,changement global,climate change,floods,global change,incertitude,inondations,uncertainty,uncertainty Mots clefs inondations},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--28},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02626667.2013.857411},
volume = {59},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Kundzewicz2019,
abstract = {Despite massive flood protection efforts in China, undertaken since the ancient times, disastrous floods continue to plague the country. In this paper, we discuss changes in flood hazard and flood risk in China. First, we review published results (including our own works) on change detection in observed records of intense precipitation, high river flow and flood damage in China. We provide information on essential features of extreme floods in last decades – floods on large rivers, urban floods, and flash floods. Next, we review available projections for the future (including our own results), related to intense precipitation, high river flow and flood damage in China. We try to interpret the difference in flood hazard projections obtained in various publications. Since the spread of river flood hazard projections is large, projections have to be interpreted with caution, because of the impact on decisions related to climate change adaptation, flood risk reduction, and water resources management. We review flood risk reduction strategies in China, focusing on the present situation and division of responsibilities. China has embarked upon an ambitious and vigorous task to improve flood preparedness, by both structural (“hard”) defences, such as: dikes, dams and flood control reservoirs, and diversions, as well as non-structural (“soft”) measures: spatial planning and zoning; watershed management (source control), flood forecasting and warning systems; and awareness raising. The strategy of flood mitigation includes flood retention and urban water management to alleviate the burden of flash and urban flooding.},
author = {Kundzewicz, ZW and Su, Buda and Wang, Yanjun and Xia, Jun and Huang, Jinlong and Jiang, Tong},
doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.05.020},
issn = {03091708},
journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
month = {aug},
pages = {37--45},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Flood risk and its reduction in China}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170818308339 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0309170818308339},
volume = {130},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Kundzewicz2018,
author = {Kundzewicz, Z W and Pin'skwar, I and Brakenridge, G R},
doi = {10.2166/nh.2017.016},
journal = {Hydrology Research},
number = {2},
pages = {294--302},
title = {{Changes in river flood hazard in Europe: A review}},
volume = {49},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kunkel2016,
author = {Kunkel, Kenneth E. and Robinson, David A. and Champion, Sarah and Yin, Xungang and Estilow, Thomas and Frankson, Rebekah M.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-016-0036-8},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {65--73},
publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
title = {{Trends and Extremes in Northern Hemisphere Snow Characteristics}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-016-0036-8},
volume = {2},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Kuriqi2020,
abstract = {A better understanding of intra/inter-annual streamflow variability and trends enables more effective water resources planning and management for current and future needs. This paper investigates the variability and trends of streamflow data from five stations (i.e. Ashti, Chindnar, Pathgudem, Polavaram, and Tekra) in Godavari river basin, India. The streamflow data were obtained from the Indian Central Water Commission and cover more than 30 years of mean daily records (i.e. 1972–2011). The streamflow data were statistically assessed using Gamma, Generalised Extreme Value and Normal distributions to understand the probability distribution features of data at inter-annual time-scale. Quantifiable changes in observed streamflow data were identified by Sen's slope method. Two other nonparametric, Mann–Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis methods were also applied to validate findings from Sen's slope trend analysis. The mean flow discharge for each month (i.e. January to December), seasonal variation (i.e. Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter) as well as an annual mean, annual maximum and minimum flows were analysed for each station. The results show that three stations (i.e. Ashti, Tekra, and Polavaram) demonstrate an increasing trend, notably during Winter and Spring. In contrast, two other stations (i.e. Pathgudem, Chindnar) revealed a decreasing trend almost at all seasons. A significant decreasing trend was observed at all station over Summer and Autumn seasons. Notably, all stations showed a decreasing trend in maximum flows; remarkably, Tekra station revealed the highest decreasing magnitude. Significant decrease in minimum flows was observed in two stations only, Chindnar and Pathgudem. Findings resulted from this study might be useful for water managers and decision-makers to propose more sustainable water management recommendations and practices.},
author = {Kuriqi, Alban and Ali, Rawshan and Pham, Quoc Bao and {Montenegro Gambini}, Julio and Gupta, Vivek and Malik, Anurag and Linh, Nguyen Thi Thuy and Joshi, Yogesh and Anh, Duong Tran and Nam, Van Thai and Dong, Xiaohua},
doi = {10.1007/s11600-020-00475-4},
issn = {1895-7455},
journal = {Acta Geophysica},
number = {5},
pages = {1461--1475},
title = {{Seasonality shift and streamflow flow variability trends in central India}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-020-00475-4},
volume = {68},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kusunoki2018,
author = {Kusunoki, Shoji},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3499-3},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
pages = {4601--4617},
title = {{Future changes in precipitation over East Asia projected by the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2}},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kusunoki2020,
abstract = {The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the ‘tipping year' Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).},
author = {Kusunoki, Shoji and Ose, Tomoaki and Hosaka, Masahiro},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-61792-8},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {4802},
title = {{Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61792-8},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Kusunose2014,
abstract = {We explore vulnerability to drought in Morocco by analyzing household coping responses to a severe drought. We find that nearly 25{\%} of households increased or decreased their cultivated land via short-term land tenancy arrangements. We use this pattern to motivate a model in which drought shocks induce the reallocation within communities of usufruct rights to land. We show how different liquidity constraints can lead some households to invest in crop production as others divest. Empirical analysis finds some support for the model but also highlights how pre-existing tenancy arrangements strongly determine a household's reliance on land tenancy markets for coping. {\textcopyright} 2014 Elsevier Ltd.},
author = {Kusunose, Yoko and Lybbert, Travis J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.04.006},
issn = {0305750X},
journal = {World Development},
pages = {114--126},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Coping with drought by adjusting land tenancy contracts: A model and evidence from rural Morocco}},
volume = {61},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Kvande2009,
author = {Kvande, Tore and Lis{\o}, Kim Robert},
doi = {10.1016/j.buildenv.2009.04.007},
issn = {03601323},
journal = {Building and Environment},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {2442--2450},
title = {{Climate adapted design of masonry structures}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360132309001036},
volume = {44},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Kwiatkowski2016,
abstract = {Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing ocean acidification, lowering seawater aragonite (CaCO3) saturation state ($\Omega$arag), with potentially substantial impacts on marine ecosystems over the 21st Century. Calcifying organisms have exhibited reduced calcification under lower saturation state conditions in aquaria. However, the in situ sensitivity of calcifying ecosystems to future ocean acidification remains unknown. Here we assess the community level sensitivity of calcification to local CO2-induced acidification caused by natural respiration in an unperturbed, biodiverse, temperate intertidal ecosystem. We find that on hourly timescales nighttime community calcification is strongly influenced by $\Omega$arag, with greater net calcium carbonate dissolution under more acidic conditions. Daytime calcification however, is not detectably affected by $\Omega$arag. If the short-term sensitivity of community calcification to $\Omega$arag is representative of the long-term sensitivity to ocean acidification, nighttime dissolution in these intertidal ecosystems could more than double by 2050, with significant ecological and economic consequences.},
author = {Kwiatkowski, Lester and Gaylord, Brian and Hill, Tessa and Hosfelt, Jessica and Kroeker, Kristy J. and Nebuchina, Yana and Ninokawa, Aaron and Russell, Ann D. and Rivest, Emily B. and Sesboue, Marine and Caldeira, Ken},
doi = {10.1038/srep22984},
isbn = {2045-2322},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {October 2015},
pages = {22984},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Nighttime dissolution in a temperate coastal ocean ecosystem increases under acidification}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep22984},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Kwiatkowski2020,
author = {Kwiatkowski, Lester and Torres, Olivier and Bopp, Laurent and Aumont, Olivier and Chamberlain, Matthew and Christian, James R and Dunne, John P and Gehlen, Marion and Ilyina, Tatiana and John, Jasmin G and Lenton, Andrew and Li, Hongmei and Lovenduski, Nicole S. and Orr, James C. and Palmieri, Julien and Santana-Falc{\'{o}}n, Yeray and Schwinger, J{\"{o}}rg and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, Roland and Stock, Charles A. and Tagliabue, Alessandro and Takano, Yohei and Tjiputra, Jerry and Toyama, Katsuya and Tsujino, Hiroyuki and Watanabe, Michio and Yamamoto, Akitomo and Yool, Andrew and Ziehn, Tilo},
doi = {10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020},
issn = {1726-4189},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {3439--3470},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections}},
url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/3439/2020/},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@article{LopezFeldman2016,
abstract = {El incremento en la concentraci{\'{o}}n de gases de efecto invernadero es tal que parece inevitable que se presenten cambios en el clima, los cuales forzar{\'{a}}n al sector agr{\'{i}}cola a tomar medidas de adaptaci{\'{o}}n. Sin embargo, las capacidades de adaptaci{\'{o}}n son limitadas y por lo tanto es muy probable que el cambio clim{\'{a}}tico afecte la disponibilidad y acceso a alimentos e incremente la volatilidad de los precios. En este art{\'{i}}culo se presenta una s{\'{i}}ntesis de la evidencia de los efectos del cambio clim{\'{a}}tico sobre el sector, con {\'{e}}nfasis en Am{\'{e}}rica Latina. La revisi{\'{o}}n deja en claro que los efectos ser{\'{a}}n heterog{\'{e}}neos y que adem{\'{a}}s pueden ser sumamente cuantiosos. Resulta entonces necesario contar con pol{\'{i}}ticas p{\'{u}}blicas enfocadas en la mitigaci{\'{o}}n de los gases de efecto invernadero, promoviendo al mismo tiempo la adaptaci{\'{o}}n ante el cambio clim{\'{a}}tico. El art{\'{i}}culo concluye con algunas consideraciones sobre temaspara investigaci{\'{o}}n futura que puedan contribuir al dise{\~{n}}o de dichas pol{\'{i}}ticas p{\'{u}}blicas. The increment in greenhouse gas emissions and its effect on climate is such that the need for the agricultural sector to adapt seems inevitable. However, given that adaptive measures are limited, it is possible that climate change will affect food availability and increase price volatility. This essay presents a synthesis of the evidence of the effects that climate change has on the agricultural sector, with a special emphasis on Latin America. This revision makes it clear that the effects are going to be heterogeneous and that they could very well be costly. Therefore, public policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions while at the same time promoting adaptive measures to climate change, are essential. The essay concludes with some considerations on future research topics that could contribute to the design of said public policies. (English) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]},
author = {{L{\'{o}}pez Feldman}, Alejandro J and {Hern{\'{a}}ndez Cort{\'{e}}s}, Danae},
doi = {10.20430/ete.v83i332.231},
issn = {0041-3011},
journal = {El Trimestre Econ{\'{o}}mico},
month = {oct},
number = {332},
pages = {459},
title = {{Cambio clim{\'{a}}tico y agricultura: una revisi{\'{o}}n de la literatura con {\'{e}}nfasis en Am{\'{e}}rica Latina}},
url = {http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/te/article/view/231},
volume = {83},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lopez-Franca2016,
abstract = {This study examines a set of 4 temperature extreme indices (cold and warm nighttime and daytime indices) from an ensemble of 4 regional climate models (RCMs) for present and future periods in South America (SA). These models were integrated in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB 7FP-EU-project. We analyze the capability of RCMs to reproduce such indices and explore changes projected by the models under the scenario A1B for the end of the 21st century. The work also analyzes the role of cloudiness, surface radiative forcing and meridional wind components on temperature extremes. Future projections show that, during the austral summer, the increase in the frequency of warm nights is larger than that projected for warm days. This result agrees with the projections for the seasonal mean fields of minimum temperature (TN) versus the maximum temperature (TX) over most of SA. The analysis for the La Plata Basin suggests that this behavior is consistent with the cooling effect of cloud cover affecting TX, while TN is affected by nighttime greenhouse warming. The relationship between cloudiness and TN and TX anomalies shows a nonlinear behavior for near full cloud cover conditions. Although TX and TN anomalies are sensitive to strong cold air advection, TX is more sensitive than TN. Thus, RCMs are useful tools to analyze both the spatial pattern of temperature extremes and the climatic factors involved.},
author = {L{\'{o}}pez-Franca, Noelia and Zaninelli, PG and Carril, AF and Men{\'{e}}ndez, CG and S{\'{a}}nchez, Enrique},
doi = {10.3354/cr01393},
issn = {0936-577X},
journal = {Climate Research},
keywords = {Climate change,Multi-model ensemble,Regional climate models,South America,Temperature extremes},
month = {may},
number = {2-3},
pages = {151--167},
title = {{Changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over South America derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models}},
url = {http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v68/n2-3/p151-167/},
volume = {68},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lopez-Moreno2009,
abstract = {In this study, snowpack series are modeled across the Pyrenees using data derived from the HIRHAM Regional Climate Model for both the control period (1960-1990) and two emission scenarios (SRES B2 and A2) by the end of the 21st century (2070-2100). A comparison of future and control simulations enables us to quantify the expected change in snowpack for the next century. Snow simulations are performed on 20 Regional Climate Model (RCM) grid points over the Pyrenees, covering the entire north-south and east-west transects; data were downscaled for four different altitudinal levels (1500, 2000, 2500, and 3000 m a.s.l.). This procedure yields a relatively complete picture of the expected impacts of climate change in the Pyrenees, covering horizontal spatial variability as well as altitudinal gradients. According to the HIRHAM model projections following different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the thickness and duration of snowpack in the Pyrenees will decrease dramatically over the next century, especially in the central and eastern sectors of the Spanish Pyrenees. The magnitude of these impacts will follow a marked altitudinal gradient: the maximum accumulated snow water equivalent may decrease by up to 78{\%}, and the season with snow cover may be reduced by up to 70{\%} at 1500 m a.s.l. The magnitude of the impacts decreases rapidly with increasing altitude; snowpack characteristics will remain largely similar in the highest sectors. The decline of the snowpack would be reduced by half if a medium-low emission scenario was considered (B2) instead of the medium-high concentrations of greenhouse gas assumed in the A2 scenario. {\textcopyright} 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
author = {L{\'{o}}pez-Moreno, J.I. and Goyette, S. and Beniston, M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.049},
isbn = {0022-1694},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {384--396},
title = {{Impact of climate change on snowpack in the Pyrenees: Horizontal spatial variability and vertical gradients}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169409003862},
volume = {374},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Lopez-Moreno2020,
abstract = {This study investigated the temporal variability and changes in snow cover duration and the average snow depth from December to April in the Pyrenees at 1,500 and 2,100 m a.s.l. for the period 1958–2017. This is the first such analysis for the entire mountain range using SAFRAN-Crocus simulations run for this specific purpose. The SAFRAN-Crocus simulations were evaluated for the period 1980–2016 using 28 in situ snow depth data time series, and for the period 2000–2017 using MODIS observations of the snow cover duration. Following confirmation that the simulated snow series satisfactorily reproduced the observed evolution of the snowpack, the Mann–Kendall test showed that snow cover duration and average depth decreased during the full study period, but this was only statistically significant at 2,100 m a.s.l. The temporal evolution in the snow series indicated marked differences among massifs, elevations, and snow variables. In general, the most western massifs of the French Pyrenees underwent a greater decrease in the snowpack, while in some eastern massifs the snowpack did not decrease, and in some cases increased at 1,500 m a.s.l. The results suggest that the trends were consistent over time, as they were little affected by the start and end year of the study period, except if trends are computed only starting after 1980, when no significant trends were apparent. Most of the observed negative trends were not correlated with changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns during the snow season. This suggests that the continuous warming in the Pyrenees since the beginning of the industrial period, and particularly the sharp increase since 1955, is a major driver explaining the snow cover decline in the Pyrenees.},
author = {L{\'{o}}pez-Moreno, J. I. and Soubeyroux, Jean Michel and Gascoin, Simon and Alonso-Gonzalez, E. and Dur{\'{a}}n-G{\'{o}}mez, Nuria and Lafaysse, Matthieu and Vernay, Matthieu and Carmagnola, Carlo and Morin, Samuel},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6571},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Pyrenees,snow,trends,weather types},
month = {nov},
number = {14},
pages = {6122--6136},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Ltd},
title = {{Long-term trends (1958–2017) in snow cover duration and depth in the Pyrenees}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6571},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lopez-Moreno2017,
abstract = {In this study we quantified the sensitivity of snow to climate warming in selected mountain sites having a Mediterranean climate, including the Pyrenees in Spain and Andorra, the Sierra Nevada in Spain and California (USA), the Atlas in Morocco, and the Andes in Chile. Meteorological observations from high elevations were used to simulate the snow energy and mass balance (SEMB) and calculate its sensitivity to climate. Very different climate sensitivities were evident amongst the various sites. For example, reductions of 9{\%}-19{\%} and 6-28 days in the mean snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow duration, respectively, were found per °C increase. Simulated changes in precipitation (±20{\%}) did not affect the sensitivities. The Andes and Atlas Mountains have a shallow and cold snowpack, and net radiation dominates the SEMB; and explains their relatively low sensitivity to climate warming. The Pyrenees and USA Sierra Nevada have a deeper and warmer snowpack, and sensible heat flux is more important in the SEMB; this explains the much greater sensitivities of these regions. Differences in sensitivity help explain why, in regions where climate models project relatively greater temperature increases and drier conditions by 2050 (such as the Spanish Sierra Nevada and the Moroccan Atlas Mountains), the decline in snow accumulation and duration is similar to other sites (such as the Pyrenees and the USA Sierra Nevada), where models project stable precipitation and more attenuated warming. The snowpack in the Andes (Chile) exhibited the lowest sensitivity to warming, and is expected to undergo only moderate change (a decrease of {\textless}12{\%} in mean SWE, and a reduction of {\textless} 7 days in snow duration under RCP 4.5). Snow accumulation and duration in the other regions are projected to decrease substantially (a minimum of 40{\%} in mean SWE and 15 days in snow duration) by 2050.},
author = {L{\'{o}}pez-Moreno, J. I. and Gascoin, S. and Herrero, J. and Sproles, E. A. and Pons, M. and Alonso-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, E. and Hanich, L. and Boudhar, A. and Musselman, K. N. and Molotch, N. P. and Sickman, J. and Pomeroy, J.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa70cb},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Mediterranean mountains,climate warming,snow,snow simulations},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {74006},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Different sensitivities of snowpacks to warming in Mediterranean climate mountain areas}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa70cb},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lai2018,
author = {Lai, Li-Wei},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-017-2261-z},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {oct},
number = {1-2},
pages = {107--119},
publisher = {Springer Vienna},
title = {{The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-017-2261-z},
volume = {134},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lydersen2015,
author = {Laidre, Kristin L. and Stern, Harry and Kovacs, Kit M. and Lowry, Lloyd and Moore, Sue E. and Regehr, Eric V. and Ferguson, Steven H. and Wiig, {\O}ystein and Boveng, Peter and Angliss, Robyn P. and Others and Lydersen, Christian and Stern, Harry and Ferguson, Steven H. and Wiig, {\O}ystein and Moore, Sue E. and Ugarte, Fernando and Angliss, Robyn P. and Regehr, Eric V. and Litovka, Dennis and Born, Erik W. and Laidre, Kristin L. and Boveng, Peter and Lowry, Lloyd and Kovacs, Kit M. and Quakenbush, Lori and Vongraven, Dag and Stern, Harry and Kovacs, Kit M. and Lowry, Lloyd and Moore, Sue E. and Regehr, Eric V. and Ferguson, Steven H. and Wiig, {\O}ystein and Boveng, Peter and Angliss, Robyn P. and Others and Moore, Sue E. and Ugarte, Fernando and Angliss, Robyn P. and Lydersen, Christian and Regehr, Eric V. and Litovka, Dennis and Born, Erik W. and Laidre, Kristin L. and Boveng, Peter and Lowry, Lloyd and Kovacs, Kit M. and Quakenbush, Lori and Vongraven, Dag},
doi = {10.1111/cobi.12474},
journal = {Conservation Biology},
keywords = {circumpolar assessment,climate change,management,subsistence harvest},
number = {3},
pages = {724--737},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century}},
volume = {29},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lake2017,
abstract = {Background: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. Objectives: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. Methods: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios {\{}[{\}}Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Results: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66{\%}) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Conclusions: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change.},
author = {Lake, Iain R. and Jones, Natalia R. and Agnew, Maureen and Goodess, Clare M. and Giorgi, Filippo and Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda and Semenov, Mikhail A. and Solomon, Fabien and Storkey, Jonathan and Vautard, Robert and Epstein, Michelle M.},
doi = {10.1289/EHP173},
issn = {0091-6765},
journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {385--391},
pmid = {27557093},
title = {{Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe}},
url = {https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/EHP173},
volume = {125},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Laliberte2016,
author = {Lalibert{\'{e}}, F. and Howell, S. E. L. and Kushner, P. J.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL066855},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Arctic change,modeling,sea ice,shipping},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {256--263},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Regional variability of a projected sea ice‐free Arctic during the summer months}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015GL066855},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lallo2018,
abstract = {There is an urgent need to mitigate climate change-induced heat stress in livestock and poultry in the Caribbean, given the deleterious effects it has on food and nutrition security. The temperature humidity index (THI) was used to assess the potential for heat stress on four types of livestock and poultry (broiler and layer chickens, pigs and ruminants) for three different agro-ecological locations in Jamaica. The THI was formulated specifically to each livestock type and was examined for 2001–2012 for seasonal and annual patterns of variability. Differences in THI were observed between summer (July to September) and winter (December to February) with some moderation due to agro-ecological location. Our results suggest that animals in ambient field conditions in Jamaica may already be experiencing considerable periods of heat stress even during the relatively cooler northern hemisphere winter months. Future patterns of heat stress relative to a 1961–1990 baseline were derived from a regional climate model when mean global surface air temperature is 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. At 1.5 °C, marked increases were noted in THI and almost persistent year-round heat stress is projected for Caribbean livestock. Conditions will be exacerbated at the higher global warming states. Possible response strategies such as cooling technologies are discussed.},
author = {Lallo, Cicero H. O. and Cohen, Jane and Rankine, Dale and Taylor, Michael and Cambell, Jayaka and Stephenson, Tannecia},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-018-1359-x},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Jamaica,Livestock,Temperature humidity index (THI)},
month = {dec},
number = {8},
pages = {2329--2340},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{Characterizing heat stress on livestock using the temperature humidity index (THI) – prospects for a warmer Caribbean}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-018-1359-x},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lambert2011,
author = {Lambert, Steven J. and Hansen, Bjarne K.},
doi = {10.1080/07055900.2011.607492},
issn = {0705-5900},
journal = {Atmosphere-Ocean},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {289--295},
title = {{Simulated Changes in the Freezing Rain Climatology of North America under Global Warming Using a Coupled Climate Model}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07055900.2011.607492},
volume = {49},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Lambrechts2011,
abstract = {Most studies on the ability of insect populations to transmit pathogens consider only constant temperatures and do not account for realistic daily temperature fluctuations that can impact vector–pathogen interactions. Here, we show that diurnal temperature range (DTR) affects two important parameters underlying dengue virus (DENV) transmission by Aedes aegypti. In two independent experiments using different DENV serotypes, mosquitoes were less susceptible to virus infection and died faster under larger DTR around the same mean temperature. Large DTR (20 °C) decreased the probability of midgut infection, but not duration of the virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP), compared with moderate DTR (10 °C) or constant temperature. A thermodynamic model predicted that at mean temperatures {\&}lt;18 °C, DENV transmission increases as DTR increases, whereas at mean temperatures {\&}gt;18 °C, larger DTR reduces DENV transmission. The negative impact of DTR on Ae. aegypti survival indicates that large temperature fluctuations will reduce the probability of vector survival through EIP and expectation of infectious life. Seasonal variation in the amplitude of daily temperature fluctuations helps to explain seasonal forcing of DENV transmission at locations where average temperature does not vary seasonally and mosquito abundance is not associated with dengue incidence. Mosquitoes lived longer and were more likely to become infected under moderate temperature fluctuations, which is typical of the high DENV transmission season than under large temperature fluctuations, which is typical of the low DENV transmission season. Our findings reveal the importance of considering short-term temperature variations when studying DENV transmission dynamics.},
author = {Lambrechts, Louis and Paaijmans, Krijn P and Fansiri, Thanyalak and Carrington, Lauren B and Kramer, Laura D and Thomas, Matthew B and Scott, Thomas W},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1101377108},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {18},
pages = {7460--7465},
title = {{Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/108/18/7460.abstract http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1101377108},
volume = {108},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Landrum2020a,
author = {Landrum, Laura and Holland, Marika M},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0892-z},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1108--1115},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0892-z},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lane2017,
author = {Lane, Stuart N. and Bakker, Maarten and Gabbud, Chrystelle and Micheletti, Natan and Saugy, Jean-No{\"{e}}l},
doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.02.015},
issn = {0169555X},
journal = {Geomorphology},
month = {jan},
pages = {210--227},
title = {{Sediment export, transient landscape response and catchment-scale connectivity following rapid climate warming and Alpine glacier recession}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169555X16300514},
volume = {277},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lange2019a,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Abstract. In this paper I present new methods for bias adjustment and statistical downscaling that are tailored to the requirements of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). In comparison to their predecessors, the new methods allow for a more robust bias adjustment of extreme values, preserve trends more accurately across quantiles, and facilitate a clearer separation of bias adjustment and statistical downscaling. The new statistical downscaling method is stochastic and better at adjusting spatial variability than the old interpolation method. Improvements in bias adjustment and trend preservation are demonstrated in a cross-validation framework.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Lange, Stefan},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {3055--3070},
title = {{Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0)}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/3055/2019/},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Laporta2015,
author = {Laporta, Gabriel Zorello and Linton, Yvonne-Marie and Wilkerson, Richard C. and Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino and Nagaki, Sandra Sayuri and Sant'Ana, Denise Cristina and Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb},
doi = {10.1186/s13071-015-1038-4},
issn = {1756-3305},
journal = {Parasites {\&} Vectors},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {426},
title = {{Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios}},
url = {https://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13071-015-1038-4},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Larosa_2019,
abstract = {Climate services are technology-intensive, science-based and user-tailored tools providing timely climate information to a wide set of users. They accelerate innovation, while contributing to societal adaptation. Research has explored the advancements of climate services in multiple fields, producing a wealth of interdisciplinary knowledge ranging from climatology to the social sciences. The aim of this paper is to map the global landscape of research on climate services and to identify patterns at individual, affiliation and country level and the structural properties of each community. We use a sample of 358 records published between 1974 and 2018 and quantitatively analyze them. We provide insights into the main characteristics of the community of climate services through Bibliometrics and complement these findings with Network Science. We have computed the centrality of each actor as derived from a Principal Component Analysis of 42 different measures. By exploring the structural properties of the networks of individuals, institutions and countries we derive implications on the most central agents. Furthermore, we detect brokers in the network, capable of facilitating the information flow and increasing the cohesion of the community. We finally analyze the abstracts of the sample via Content Analysis. We find a progressive shift towards climate adaptation and user-centric visions. Agriculture and Energy are the top mentioned sectors. Anglophone countries and institutions are quantitatively dominant, and they are also important in connecting different discipline of the network of scholars, by building on established partnerships. Finding that nodes facilitating the diffusion of information flows (the brokers) are not necessarily the most central, but have a high degree of interdisciplinarity facilitating interactions of different communities. Social media abstract. {\#}WhoisWho in {\#}climateservices? A comprehensive map of research in {\#}Europe and beyond},
author = {Larosa, Francesca and Mysiak, Jaroslav},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab304d},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {93006},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Mapping the landscape of climate services}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2Fab304d},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Laurent2017,
author = {Laurent, Arnaud and Fennel, Katja and Cai, Wei-Jun and Huang, Wei-Jen and Barbero, Leticia and Wanninkhof, Rik},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071881},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {946--956},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Eutrophication‐induced acidification of coastal waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Insights into origin and processes from a coupled physical–biogeochemical model}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016GL071881},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Laurila2020,
abstract = {Abstract This study presents the monthly 10-m wind speed climatology, decadal variability and possible trends in the North Atlantic and Europe from ERA5 reanalysis from 1979 to 2018 and investigates the physical reasons for the decadal variability. Additionally, temporal time series are examined in three locations: the central North Atlantic, Finland and Iberian Peninsula. The 40-year mean and the 98th percentile wind speeds emphasize a distinct land-sea contrast and a seasonal variation with the strongest winds over the ocean and during winter. The strongest winds and the highest variability are associated with the storm tracks and local wind phenomena such as the mistral. The extremeness of the winds is examined with an extreme wind factor (the 98th percentile divided by mean wind speeds) which in all months is higher in southern Europe than in northern Europe. Mostly no linear trends in 10-m wind speeds are identified in the three locations but large annual and decadal variability is evident. The decadal 10-m wind speeds were stronger than average in the 1990s in northern Europe and in the 1980s and 2010s in southern Europe. These decadal changes were largely explained by the positioning of the jet stream and storm tracks and the strength of the north?south pressure gradient in the North Atlantic. The 10-m winds have a positive correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation in the central North Atlantic and Finland on annual scales and during cold season months and a negative correlation in Iberian Peninsula mostly from July to March. The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation has a moderate negative correlation with the winds in the central North Atlantic but no correlation in Finland and Iberian Peninsula. Overall, our results emphasize that while linear trends in wind speeds may show a general long-term trend, more information on the changes is obtained by analysing long-term variability.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6957},
author = {Laurila, Terhi K and Sinclair, Victoria A and Gregow, Hilppa},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6957},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {ERA5,climate,climatology,trends,variability,wind speed},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {2253--2278},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Climatology, variability, and trends in near‐surface wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe during 1979–2018 based on ERA5}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6957 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6957},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Lay2018,
author = {Lay, C. R. and Mills, D. and Belova, A. and Sarofim, M. C. and Kinney, P. L. and Vaidyanathan, A. and Jones, R. and Hall, R. and Saha, S.},
doi = {10.1002/2018GH000129},
issn = {24711403},
journal = {GeoHealth},
keywords = {climate change,emergency department visit,hyperthermia},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {182--194},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Emergency Department Visits and Ambient Temperature: Evaluating the Connection and Projecting Future Outcomes}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2018GH000129},
volume = {2},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lazar2008,
author = {Lazar, Brian and Williams, Mark},
doi = {10.1016/j.coldregions.2007.03.015},
issn = {0165232X},
journal = {Cold Regions Science and Technology},
month = {feb},
number = {2-3},
pages = {219--228},
title = {{Climate change in western ski areas: Potential changes in the timing of wet avalanches and snow quality for the Aspen ski area in the years 2030 and 2100}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0165232X07000742},
volume = {51},
year = {2008}
}
@article{LeCozannet,
abstract = {Sandy shorelines are constantly evolving, threatening frequently human assets such as buildings or transport infrastructure. In these environments, sea-level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion to an amount which remains uncertain. Sandy shoreline change projections inherit the uncertainties of future mean sea-level changes, of vertical ground motions, and of other natural and anthropogenic processes affecting shoreline change variability and trends. Furthermore, the erosive impact of sea-level rise itself can be quantified using two fundamentally different models. Here, we show that this latter source of uncertainty, which has been little quantified so far, can account for 20 to 40{\%} of the variance of shoreline projections by 2100 and beyond. This is demonstrated for four contrasting sandy beaches that are relatively unaffected by human interventions in southwestern France, where a variance-based global sensitivity analysis of shoreline projection uncertainties can be performed owing to previous observations of beach profile and shoreline changes. This means that sustained coastal observations and efforts to develop sea-level rise impact models are needed to understand and eventually reduce uncertainties of shoreline change projections, in order to ultimately support coastal land-use planning and adaptation. Since 1870, sea level has been rising, mainly due to the melting of land-ice and ocean expansion caused by anthro-pogenic climate warming 1-5. While the most immediate impact of sea-level rise is increased coastal flooding hazards 6-13 , there are significant concerns regarding shoreline retreat as well 6,14-26. In particular, beaches backed by sandy deposits are receiving particular attention for several reasons: first, they represent 31{\%} of the world's ice-free coasts 25 ; second, they are potentially highly sensitive to sea-level changes 14-16,24 ; third, it has been estimated that at least 24{\%} and up to 70{\%} of the world beaches are already under chronic erosion, although with large regional and local differences 25,27 ; finally, beaches are both valuable for tourism and as buffer zones during extreme events such as storms. Sandy shoreline change projections along a given coast need to consider sediment losses and gains caused by a number of hydro-sedimentary processes acting at different timescales 28. Coastal change is driven by a myr-iad of processes interacting with one another at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, making the use of process-based coastal evolution modelling difficult at operational levels. Hence, instead of attempting to quantify the impact of each process causing sediment transport, coastal adaptation practitioners have pragmatically relied on extrapolations of past observations in order to anticipate future shoreline changes. In the absence of human interventions, estuaries or other major sediment sources or sinks, this results in the following equation: ∆ = +. + + L L n Tx Lvar S (1) r r slr 0 where L r0 and L r are the shoreline positions in a cross-shore direction at the initialization and after n years, respectively, Tx is the linear trend over multi-decadal to centennial timescales, and Lvar represents the seasonal, inter-annual and decadal modes of variability of shoreline changes. Neither Tx nor Lvar is related to a single 1 BRGM, 3, av.},
author = {{Le Cozannet}, Gon{\'{e}}ri and Bulteau, Thomas and Castelle, Bruno and Ranasinghe, Roshanka and W{\"{o}}ppelmann, Guy and Rohmer, Jeremy and Bernon, Nicolas and Idier, D{\'{e}}borah and Louisor, Jessie and Salas-y-M{\'{e}}lia, David},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-37017-4},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {42},
title = {{Quantifying uncertainties of sandy shoreline change projections as sea level rises}},
url = {www.nature.com/scientificreports/ http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-37017-4},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{LeCozannet2017,
abstract = {For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS). To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1) research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2) cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation.},
author = {{Le Cozannet}, Gon{\'{e}}ri and Nicholls, Robert and Hinkel, Jochen and Sweet, William and McInnes, Kathleen and {Van de Wal}, Roderik and Slangen, Aim{\'{e}}e and Lowe, Jason and White, Kathleen},
doi = {10.3390/jmse5040049},
issn = {2077-1312},
journal = {Journal of Marine Science and Engineering},
month = {oct},
number = {4},
pages = {49},
title = {{Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/5/4/49},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}
@article{LeCozannet2014,
abstract = {While global sea level has risen by 20. cm since the mid-19th century, the role of this process in present-day and past shoreline mobility is still debated. In this paper, we review previous studies that explored the relations between sea-level rise and shoreline changes over the last few decades. Existing methods can be classified into two groups: (1) approaches based on the analysis of trends and variability in shoreline change observations, which investigate whether a correlation with the temporal or spatial patterns sea level changes can be established; and (2) approaches based on the comparison of shoreline observations with a coastal model outcome, which attempt to evaluate the contribution of sea-level rise to shoreline mobility using coastal evolution modeling tools. The existing applications of these methods face two common difficulties: first, shoreline data are often lacking or insufficiently resolved temporally to capture the dynamics of coastlines; and second, relative sea level along the coast is generally only known in a limited number of areas where tide gauges are available. These two challenges can be met, owing to the increasing amount of shoreline change observations and complementary geodetic techniques. The wide range of different interpretations regarding the role of sea-level rise in recent shoreline changes highlights the necessity to conduct specific studies that rely on local observations and models applicable in the local geomorphological context. {\textcopyright} 2014.},
author = {{Le Cozannet}, Gon{\'{e}}ri and Garcin, Manuel and Yates, Marissa and Idier, D{\'{e}}borah and Meyssignac, Benoit},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.08.005},
isbn = {0012-8252},
issn = {00128252},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
keywords = {Decadal coastline evolution,Multi-decadal sea level changes,Sea level rise,Shoreline changes,Shoreline observations},
pages = {47--60},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Approaches to evaluate the recent impacts of sea-level rise on shoreline changes}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.08.005},
volume = {138},
year = {2014}
}
@article{LeNohaic2017,
abstract = {In 2015/16, a marine heatwave associated with a record El Ni{\~{n}}o led to the third global mass bleaching event documented to date. This event impacted coral reefs around the world, including in Western Australia (WA), although WA reefs had largely escaped bleaching during previous strong El Ni{\~{n}}o years. Coral health surveys were conducted during the austral summer of 2016 in four bioregions along the WA coast ({\~{}}17 degrees of latitude), ranging from tropical to temperate locations. Here we report the first El Ni{\~{n}}o-related regional-scale mass bleaching event in WA. The heatwave primarily affected the macrotidal Kimberley region in northwest WA ({\~{}}16°S), where 4.5–9.3 degree heating weeks (DHW) resulted in 56.6–80.6{\%} bleaching, demonstrating that even heat-tolerant corals from naturally extreme, thermally variable reef environments are threatened by heatwaves. Some heat stress (2.4 DHW) and bleaching ({\textless}30{\%}) also occurred at Rottnest Island (32°01'S), whereas coral communities at Ningaloo Reef (23°9'S) and Bremer Bay (34°25'S) were not impacted. The only other major mass bleaching in WA occurred during a strong La Ni{\~{n}}a event in 2010/11 and primarily affected reefs along the central-to-southern coast. This suggests that WA reefs are now at risk of severe bleaching during both El Ni{\~{n}}o and La Ni{\~{n}}a years. Coral reefs are in serious decline worldwide due to a combination of increasing local and global anthropo-genic pressures 1,2 . Rising atmospheric CO 2 -concentrations are causing ocean warming, which leads to more intense and frequent mass coral bleaching events. To date, three global mass bleaching events (1998, 2010, and 2015/16) have been documented since the 1980s and were associated with El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven warming events 3–5},
author = {{Le Noha{\"{i}}c}, Morane and Ross, Claire L. and Cornwall, Christopher E. and Comeau, Steeve and Lowe, Ryan and McCulloch, Malcolm T. and Schoepf, Verena},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-14794-y},
isbn = {4159801714794},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {14999},
pmid = {29101362},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Marine heatwave causes unprecedented regional mass bleaching of thermally resistant corals in northwestern Australia}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14794-y},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Leakey2012,
abstract = {A key finding from elevated [CO2] field experiments is that the impact of elevated [CO2] on plant and ecosystem function is highly dependent upon other environmental conditions, namely temperature and the availability of nutrients and soil moisture. In addition, there is significant variation in the response to elevated [CO2] among plant functional types, species and crop varieties. However, experimental data on plant and ecosystem responses to elevated [CO2] are strongly biased to economically and ecologically important systems in the temperate zone. There is a multi-biome gap in experimental data that is most severe in the tropics and subtropics, but also includes high latitudes. Physiological understanding of the environmental conditions and species found at high and low latitudes suggest they may respond differently to elevated [CO2] than well-studied temperate systems. Addressing this knowledge gap should be a high priority as it is vital to understanding 21st century food supply and ecosystem feedbacks on climate change.},
author = {Leakey, Andrew DB and Bishop, Kristen A and Ainsworth, Elizabeth A},
doi = {10.1016/j.pbi.2012.01.009},
issn = {13695266},
journal = {Current Opinion in Plant Biology},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {228--236},
publisher = {Elsevier Current Trends},
title = {{A multi-biome gap in understanding of crop and ecosystem responses to elevated CO2}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369526612000106?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1369526612000106},
volume = {15},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Lee2015c,
author = {Lee, Hyunok and Sumner, Daniel A.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1436-9},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {oct},
number = {4},
pages = {723--737},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Economics of downscaled climate-induced changes in cropland, with projections to 2050: evidence from Yolo County California}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-015-1436-9},
volume = {132},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lee2018a,
abstract = {Climate change poses a growing risk to global biodiversity. To prioritize conservation efforts, identification of the species and ecosystems most at risk from further changes in climatic conditions is critically needed. Although frameworks are available to assess species vulnerability to climate change, we still lack an easily implementable, ecosystem‐level perspective to inform landscape management. Here, we introduce a novel, spatially explicit vulnerability framework able to generate assessments at the ecosystem scale and apply it to Mozambican forest mangroves, which are under growing pressures from climate change. Results show that most of these ecosystems are currently highly vulnerable to sea level rise, while mangroves in the Zambezia and Nampula districts are highly vulnerable to both sea level rise and tropical storms. Altogether, we believe the introduced assessment framework has clear potential to inform conservation planning and management at various spatial scales, and help achieve adaptive management in the face of climatic uncertainties.},
author = {Lee, Calvin Ka Fai and Duncan, Clare and Owen, Harry Jon Foord and Pettorelli, Nathalie},
doi = {10.1111/conl.12372},
issn = {1755263X},
journal = {Conservation Letters},
keywords = {Biodiversity,climate change,conservation,ecosystem,mangrove,remote sensing,vulnerability},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {e12372},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{A New Framework to Assess Relative Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/conl.12372},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lee2017b,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} Livestock numbers are increasing to supply the growing demand for meat-rich diets. The sustainability of this trend has been questioned, and future environmental changes, such as climate change, may cause some regions to become less suitable for livestock. Livestock and wild herbivores are strongly dependent on the nutritional chemistry of forage plants. Nutrition is positively linked to weight gains, milk production and reproductive success, and nutrition is also a key determinant of enteric methane production. In this meta-analysis, we assessed the effects of growing conditions on forage quality by compiling published measurements of grass nutritive value and combining these data with climatic, edaphic and management information. We found that forage nutritive value was reduced at higher temperatures and increased by nitrogen fertiliser addition, likely driven by a combination of changes to species identity and changes to physiology and phenology. These relationships were combined with multiple published empirical models to estimate forage- and temperature-driven changes to cattle enteric methane production. This suggested a previously undescribed positive climate change feedback, where elevated temperatures reduce grass nutritive value and correspondingly may increase methane production by 0.9{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}{\%} with a 1{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}°C temperature rise and 4.5{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}{\%} with a 5{\textless}span class="thinspace"{\textgreater}{\textless}/span{\textgreater}°C rise (model average), thus creating an additional climate forcing effect. Future methane production increases are expected to be largest in parts of North America, central and eastern Europe and Asia, with the geographical extent of hotspots increasing under a high emissions scenario. These estimates require refinement and a greater knowledge of the abundance, size, feeding regime and location of cattle, and the representation of heat stress should be included in future modelling work. However, our results indicate that the cultivation of more nutritious forage plants and reduced livestock farming in warming regions may reduce this additional source of pastoral greenhouse gas emissions.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Lee, Mark A. and Davis, Aaron P. and Chagunda, Mizeck G. G. and Manning, Pete},
doi = {10.5194/bg-14-1403-2017},
issn = {1726-4189},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {1403--1417},
title = {{Forage quality declines with rising temperatures, with implications for livestock production and methane emissions}},
url = {https://www.biogeosciences.net/14/1403/2017/},
volume = {14},
year = {2017}
}
@article{LEE20201,
abstract = {Published findings on climate change impacts on tropical cyclones (TCs) in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Region are assessed. We focus on observed TC changes in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, including frequency, intensity, precipitation, track pattern, and storm surge. Results from an updated survey of impacts of past TC activity on various Members of the Typhoon Committee are also reported. Existing TC datasets continue to show substantial interdecadal variations in basin-wide TC frequency and intensity in the WNP. There has been encouraging progress in improving the consensus between different datasets concerning intensity trends. A statistically significant northwestward shift in WNP TC tracks since the 1980s has been documented. There is low-to-medium confidence in a detectable poleward shift since the 1940s in the average latitude where TCs reach their peak intensity in the WNP. A worsening of storm inundation levels is believed to be occurring due to sea level rise-due in part to anthropogenic influence-assuming all other factors equal. However, we are not aware that any TC climate change signal has been convincingly detected in WNP sea level extremes data. We also consider detection and attribution of observed changes based on an alternative Type II error avoidance perspective.},
author = {Lee, Tsz-Cheung and Knutson, Thomas R and Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki and Ying, Ming and Cha, Eun Jeong},
doi = {10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.001},
issn = {22256032},
journal = {Tropical Cyclone Research and Review},
keywords = {Climate change,Tropical cyclones,Typhoon Committee,Typhoons,Western North Pacific},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {1--22},
title = {{Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the Typhoon Committee Region – Part I: Observed changes, detection and attribution}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603220300114 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2225603220300114},
volume = {9},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lee2017c,
abstract = {Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1{\%} of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km 2 by the end of the century, close to a 25{\%} increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.},
author = {Lee, Jasmine R. and Raymond, Ben and Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Chad{\`{e}}s, Iadine and Fuller, Richard A. and Shaw, Justine D. and Terauds, Aleks},
doi = {10.1038/nature22996},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Biodiversity,Climate,Projection and prediction,change ecology,change impacts},
month = {jul},
number = {7661},
pages = {49--54},
pmid = {28658207},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat}},
url = {http://www.add.scar.org},
volume = {547},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lehner2018,
abstract = {Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2},
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Deser, Clara and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {363--375},
title = {{Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2},
volume = {146},
year = {2018}
}
@article{10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1,
abstract = {Time of emergence of anthropogenic climate change is a crucial metric in risk assessments surrounding future climate predictions. However, internal climate variability impairs the ability to make accurate statements about when climate change emerges from a background reference state. None of the existing efforts to explore uncertainties in time of emergence has explicitly explored the role of internal atmospheric circulation variability. Here a dynamical adjustment method based on constructed circulation analogs is used to provide new estimates of time of emergence of anthropogenic warming over North America and Europe from both a local and spatially aggregated perspective. After removing the effects of internal atmospheric circulation variability, the emergence of anthropogenic warming occurs on average two decades earlier in winter and one decade earlier in summer over North America and Europe. Dynamical adjustment increases the percentage of land area over which warming has emerged by about 30$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} and 15$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} in winter (10$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} and 5$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} in summer) over North America and Europe, respectively. Using a large ensemble of simulations with a climate model, evidence is provided that thermodynamic factors related to variations in snow cover, sea ice, and soil moisture are important drivers of the remaining uncertainty in time of emergence. Model biases in variability lead to an underestimation (13$\backslash$$\backslash${\%}–22$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} over North America and $\backslash$$\backslash${\textless}5$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} over Europe) of the land fraction emerged by 2010 in summer, indicating that the forced warming signal emerges earlier in observations than suggested by models. The results herein illustrate opportunities for future detection and attribution studies to improve physical understanding by explicitly accounting for internal atmospheric circulation variability.},
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Deser, Clara and Terray, Laurent},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {19},
pages = {7739--7756},
title = {{Toward a New Estimate of “Time of Emergence” of Anthropogenic Warming: Insights from Dynamical Adjustment and a Large Initial-Condition Model Ensemble}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Leite-Filho2019a,
abstract = {Abstract Amazonian deforestation is causing notable changes in the hydrological cycle by altering important precipitation characteristics. This study uses daily rainfall time series data from 112 rain gauges and a recent yearly 1-km land use data set covering the period from 1974 to 2012 to evaluate the effects of the extent of deforestation at different spatial scales on the onset of the rainy season and on the duration of dry spells in southern Amazonia. Correlation analyses indicate a delay in the onset of 0.12?0.17 days per percent increase in deforestation. Analysis of cumulative probability density functions emphasizes that the likelihood of rainy season onset occurring earlier than normal decreases as the local deforestation fraction increases. In addition, the probability of occurrence of dry spells in the early and late rainy season is higher in areas with greater deforestation. The delayed onset and longer dry spell events in highly deforested areas increase the climate risk to agriculture in the region.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2018JD029537},
author = {Leite-Filho, Argemiro Teixeira and {de Sousa Pontes}, Ver{\^{o}}nica Yame{\^{e}} and Costa, Marcos Heil},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD029537},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Amazonia,deforestation,dry spell,land-atmosphere interaction,rainy season},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {5268--5281},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Effects of Deforestation on the Onset of the Rainy Season and the Duration of Dry Spells in Southern Amazonia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029537},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lelieveld2015,
abstract = {Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
author = {Lelieveld, J. and Evans, J. S. and Fnais, M. and Giannadaki, D. and Pozzer, A.},
doi = {10.1038/nature15371},
eprint = {arXiv:1011.1669v3},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Environmental chemistry,Environmental sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {7569},
pages = {367--371},
pmid = {26381985},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature15371},
volume = {525},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lelieveld2016a,
abstract = {The ensemble results of CMIP5 climate models that applied the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used to investigate climate change and temperature extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Uncertainty evaluation of climate projections indicates good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Results imply that climate warming in the MENA is strongest in summer while elsewhere it is typically stronger in winter. The summertime warming extends the thermal low at the surface from South Asia across the Middle East over North Africa, as the hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme. Observations and model calculations of the recent past consistently show increasing heat extremes, which are projected to accelerate in future. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. On average in the MENA, the maximum temperature during the hottest days in the recent past was about 43 °C, which could increase to about 46 °C by the middle of the century and reach almost 50 °C by the end of the century, the latter according to the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario. This will have important consequences for human health and society.},
author = {Lelieveld, J. and Proestos, Y. and Hadjinicolaou, P. and Tanarhte, M. and Tyrlis, E. and Zittis, G.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {245--260},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6},
volume = {137},
year = {2016}
}
@misc{Lemos2012,
abstract = {Climate-change-related risks pose serious threats to the management of a wide range of social, economic and ecological systems. Managing these risks requires knowledge-intensive adaptive management and policy-making actively informed by scientific knowledge, especially climate science. However, potentially useful climate information often goes unused. This suggests a gap between what scientists understand as useful information and what users recognize as usable in their decision-making. We propose a dynamic conceptual model to address this gap and highlight strategies to move information from useful to usable to reduce climate-related risks. {\textcopyright} 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.},
author = {Lemos, Maria Carmen and Kirchhoff, Christine J. and Ramprasad, Vijay},
booktitle = {Nature Climate Change},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1614},
issn = {1758678X},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {789--794},
title = {{Narrowing the climate information usability gap}},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Leng2019a,
abstract = {Understanding the potential drought impacts on agricultural production is critical for ensuring global food security. Instead of providing a deterministic estimate, this study investigates the likelihood of yield loss of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans in response to droughts of various intensities in the 10 largest producing countries. We use crop-country specific standardized precipitation index (SPI) and census yield data for 1961–2016 to build a probabilistic modeling framework for estimating yield loss risk under a moderate (−1.2 {\textless} SPI {\textless} −0.8), severe (−1.5 {\textless} SPI {\textless} −1.3), extreme (−1.9 {\textless} SPI {\textless} −1.6) and exceptional (SPI {\textless} −2.0) drought. Results show that there is {\textgreater}80{\%} probability that wheat production will fall below its long-term average when experiencing an exceptional drought, especially in USA and Canada. As for maize, India shows the highest risk of yield reduction under droughts, while rice is the crop that is most vulnerable to droughts in Vietnam and Thailand. Risk of drought-driven soybean yield loss is the highest in USA, Russian and India. Yield loss risk tends to grow faster when experiencing a shift in drought severity from moderate to severe than that from extreme to the exceptional category, demonstrating the non-linear response of yield to the increase in drought severity. Sensitivity analysis shows that temperature plays an important role in determining drought impacts, through reducing or amplifying drought-driven yield loss risk. Compared to present conditions, an ensemble of 11 crop models simulated an increase in yield loss risk by 9{\%}–12{\%}, 5.6{\%}–6.3{\%}, 18.1{\%}–19.4{\%} and 15.1{\%}–16.1 for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans by the end of 21st century, respectively, without considering the benefits of CO 2 fertilization and adaptations. This study highlights the non-linear response of yield loss risk to the increase in drought severity. This implies that adaptations should be more targeted, considering not only the crop type and region but also the specific drought severity of interest.},
author = {Leng, Guoyong and Hall, Jim},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.434},
issn = {18791026},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
keywords = {Agricultural production,Climate change,Drought,Risk},
month = {mar},
pages = {811--821},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Crop yield sensitivity of global major agricultural countries to droughts and the projected changes in the future}},
volume = {654},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Leng2016,
author = {Leng, Guoyong and Huang, Maoyi and Voisin, Nathalie and Zhang, Xuesong and Asrar, Ghassem R and Leung, L Ruby},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114003},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {114003},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Emergence of new hydrologic regimes of surface water resources in the conterminous United States under future warming}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114003},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lenoir2015,
author = {Lenoir, J. and Svenning, J.-C.},
doi = {10.1111/ecog.00967},
issn = {09067590},
journal = {Ecography},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {15--28},
title = {{Climate-related range shifts – a global multidimensional synthesis and new research directions}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/ecog.00967},
volume = {38},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lesk9999,
author = {Lesk, Corey and Coffel, Ethan and Horton, Radley},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0830-0},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {819--822},
title = {{Net benefits to US soy and maize yields from intensifying hourly rainfall}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0830-0},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Leta2018,
author = {Leta, Olkeba and El-Kadi, Aly and Dulai, Henrietta},
doi = {10.3390/su10062057},
issn = {2071-1050},
journal = {Sustainability},
keywords = {Climate change,Extreme streamflow,Hawaii,SWAT,Streamflow},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {2057},
title = {{Impact of Climate Change on Daily Streamflow and Its Extreme Values in Pacific Island Watersheds}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/6/2057},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Levin2017a,
abstract = {Oxygen loss in the ocean, termed deoxygenation, is a major consequence of climate change and is exacerbated by other aspects of global change. An average global loss of 2{\%} or more has been recorded in the open ocean over the past 50–100 years, but with greater oxygen declines in intermediate waters (100–600 m) of the North Pacific, the East Pacific, tropical waters, and the Southern Ocean. Although ocean warming contributions to oxygen declines through a reduction in oxygen solubility and stratification effects on ventilation are reasonably well understood, it has been a major challenge to identify drivers and modifying factors that explain different regional patterns, especially in the tropical oceans. Changes in respiration, circulation (including upwelling), nutrient inputs, and possibly methane release contribute to oxygen loss, often indirectly through stimulation of biological production and biological consumption. Microbes mediate many feedbacks in oxygen minimum zones that can either exacerbate or...},
author = {Levin, Lisa A},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063359},
issn = {1941-1405},
journal = {Annual Review of Marine Science},
keywords = {climate change,hypoxia,nutrients,open ocean,oxygen minimum zone,paleo-record,stratification,upwelling,variability},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {229--260},
publisher = {Annual Reviews},
title = {{Manifestation, Drivers, and Emergence of Open Ocean Deoxygenation}},
url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063359},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lewis2019,
abstract = {Capsule Summary StatementFactors including the circulation pattern and antecedent conditions contributed to 2018 northeast Australian fires. High background temperatures also played a role for which model evidence suggests an anthropogenic influence.},
author = {Lewis, Sophie C and Blake, Stephanie A.P. and Trewin, Blair and Black, Mitchell T and Dowdy, Andrew J and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E and King, Andrew D and Sharples, Jason J},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0144.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {S115--S122},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Deconstructing Factors Contributing to the 2018 Fire Weather in Queensland, Australia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0144.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/1/bams-d-19-0144.1.xml},
volume = {101},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lewkowicz2019,
abstract = {Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) – landslides caused by the melt of ground ice in permafrost – have become more common in the Arctic, but the timing of this recent increase and its links to climate have not been fully established. Here we annually resolve RTS formation and longevity for Banks Island, Canada (70,000 km 2 ) using the Google Earth Engine Timelapse dataset. We describe a 60-fold increase in numbers between 1984 and 2015 as more than 4000 RTS were initiated, primarily following four particularly warm summers. Colour change due to increased turbidity occurred in 288 lakes affected by RTS outflows and sediment accumulated in many valley floors. Modelled RTS initiation rates increased by an order of magnitude between 1906–1985 and 2006–2015, and are projected under RCP4.5 to rise to {\textgreater}10,000 decade −1 after 2075. These results provide additional evidence that ice-rich continuous permafrost terrain can be highly vulnerable to changing summer climate.},
author = {Lewkowicz, Antoni G. and Way, Robert G.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09314-7},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1329},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Extremes of summer climate trigger thousands of thermokarst landslides in a High Arctic environment}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09314-7},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Leys2011,
abstract = {The dust storm on 22 and 23 September 2009, called " Red Dawn" , was the largest to pass over Sydney in term of reduced visibility (400m) since reliable records began in 1940. The maximum hourly PM10concentration measured near Sydney was 15,366$\mu$g/m3at Bringelly and is the highest ever recorded for Sydney and possibly any Australian capital city. The Australian air quality standard of 50$\mu$g/m3per 24h was massively exceeded at Randwick (1734$\mu$g/m3) and Newcastle (2426$\mu$g/m3). Red Dawn was caused by drought and the extreme wind conditions caused by a low pressure trough and cold front associated with a deep cut-off low pressure system. The source of the dust was the red sandplains of western New South Wales, the sandplains, riverine channels and lakes of the lower Lake Eyre Basin and Channel Country of Queensland. Between 22 September 2009 at 1400 and 23 September 2009, 0.3Mt of PM10dust was transported off the coast between Albion Park and Newcastle (182km length) near Sydney. The maximum hourly rate of PM10dust lost off the coast near Sydney was 71,015t/h on 22 September at 2100. Calculating the total suspended particulate sediment lost off the Australian coast for the 3000km long Red Dawn dust storm gives an estimate of 2.54Mt for a plume height of 2500m. This is the first and largest off-continent loss of soil ever reported using measured, as apposed to modelled, dust concentrations for Australia. {\textcopyright} 2011.},
author = {Leys, John F. and Heidenreich, Stephan K. and Strong, Craig L. and McTainsh, Grant H. and Quigley, Suzanne},
doi = {10.1016/j.aeolia.2011.06.003},
isbn = {1875-9637},
issn = {18759637},
journal = {Aeolian Research},
keywords = {Air quality,Dust storms,PM10,Sydney,TSP,Wind erosion},
month = {dec},
number = {3},
pages = {327--342},
title = {{PM10 concentrations and mass transport during “Red Dawn” – Sydney 23 September 2009}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1875963711000450},
volume = {3},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Li2014a,
abstract = {Due to the unprecedented growth in population and economic development along the coastal zone all over the world, knowledge about future extreme oceanographic events will assist in ensuring human and property safety. This will be a task with increasing significance in the light of projected climate change impacts. A joint estimation of extreme storm events' variates of deep water wave conditions was performed. It can be used for multivariate descriptions of wave climate variates, such as wave height, period, steepness, and storm duration. The storm sequences can be simulated and extrapolated from limited observational data for optimal structure protection strategies and various disaster risk analysis, like erosion or overtopping. The analysis not only shows the effectiveness of the proposed statistical approaches for improving multivariate modelling of the storm parameters but also highlights the most compatible approach for the Dutch wave climate data from 1979 to 2009. We used the Monte-Carlo method and four methods to construct the dependency structures, based on copula functions, physical relationship and extreme value theory. The marginal probabilistic distribution functions of wave climate variables and the joint probability were then obtained. The simulated data group performs a reasonable similarity to the field measurements according to the goodness-of-fit test, and the Gaussian copula model was found to be the best wave climate simulation method for the Dutch coast.},
author = {Li, F. and van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. and Ranasinghe, R. and Callaghan, D.P. and Jongejan, R.B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.009},
issn = {03783839},
journal = {Coastal Engineering},
month = {apr},
pages = {1--13},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Probabilistic modelling of extreme storms along the Dutch coast}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378383913002159 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378383913002159},
volume = {86},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Li2018b,
abstract = {This paper describes a probabilistic approach for mapping of coastal flood hazards associated with sea-level rise and storm intensification toward the end of the 21st century. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) predicts a 0.6-m ensemble mean of sea-level rise for the Central Pacific from the 1986–2005 to 2081–2100 epochs. Fifty downscaling simulations of the 2080–2099 period from the CMIP5 NCAR-CCSM4 model produce 2492 hurricanes around the Hawaiian Islands. In comparison with a control dataset for the 1980–1999 period, the simulated future hurricanes show a slight increase in number and a northward shift of the tracks toward the Hawaiian Islands. There are 627 hurricanes in the 2080–2099 dataset with potential impact on Oahu, and the top 24 storms selected by wind speed at the urban Honolulu coast define a scenario set for inundation mapping. A suite of spectral wave, circulation, and Boussinesq models in a nested grid system describes generation and propagation of surge and waves across the ocean as well as wave setup and runup at the coast. The interoperable package includes phase-averaged and phase-resolving processes to determine the coastal flood hazards over a range of spatial and temporal scales during a hurricane event. Since the simulated dataset corresponds to a quasi 1000-year period, barring the tail end of the distribution, the suite of inundation scenarios enables definition of flood hazard maps with return periods of up to 500 years or annual exceedance probabilities of 0.2{\%} or greater for climate change adaptation.},
author = {Li, Ning and Yamazaki, Yoshiki and Roeber, Volker and Cheung, Kwok Fai and Chock, Gary},
doi = {10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.12.013},
issn = {03783839},
journal = {Coastal Engineering},
pages = {126--141},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Probabilistic mapping of storm-induced coastal inundation for climate change adaptation}},
volume = {133},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Li2015a,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2014 John Wiley {\&} Sons Ltd. Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10{\%} of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.},
author = {Li, Tao and Hasegawa, Toshihiro and Yin, Xinyou and Zhu, Yan and Boote, Kenneth and Adam, Myriam and Bregaglio, Simone and Buis, Samuel and Confalonieri, Roberto and Fumoto, Tamon and Gaydon, Donald and Marcaida, Manuel and Nakagawa, Hiroshi and Oriol, Philippe and Ruane, A.C. Alex C. and Ruget, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Singh, Balwinder- and Singh, Upendra and Tang, Liang and Tao, Fulu and Wilkens, Paul and Yoshida, Hiroe and Zhang, Zhao and Bouman, Bas},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.12758},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {AgMIP,Climate change,Crop-model ensembles,Oryza sativa,Yield prediction uncertainty},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1328--1341},
title = {{Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.12758},
volume = {21},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Li2017,
author = {Li, Richard C Y and Zhou, Wen and Shun, C M and Lee, Tsz Cheung},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0258.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {9},
pages = {3367--3379},
title = {{Change in destructiveness of landfalling tropical cyclones over China in recent decades}},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Li2018d,
abstract = {This study evaluates regional-scale projections of climate indices that are relevant to climate change impacts in Canada. We consider indices of relevance to different sectors including those that describe heat conditions for different crop types, temperature threshold exceedances relevant for human beings and ecological ecosystems such as the number of days temperatures are above certain thresholds, utility relevant indices that indicate levels of energy demand for cooling or heating, and indices that represent precipitation conditions. Results are based on an ensemble of high-resolution statistically downscaled climate change projections from 24 global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. The statistical downscaling approach includes a bias-correction procedure, resulting in more realistic indices than those computed from the original GCM data. We find that the level of projected changes in the indices scales well with the projected increase in the global mean temperature and is insensitive to the emission scenarios. At the global warming level about 2.1 °C above pre-industrial (corresponding to the multi-model ensemble mean for 2031–2050 under the RCP8.5 scenario), there is almost complete model agreement on the sign of projected changes in temperature indices for every region in Canada. This includes projected increases in extreme high temperatures and cooling demand, growing season length, and decrease in heating demand. Models project much larger changes in temperature indices at the higher 4.5 °C global warming level (corresponding to 2081–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario). Models also project an increase in total precipitation, in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, and in extreme precipitation. Uncertainty is high in precipitation projections, with the result that models do not fully agree on the sign of changes in most regions even at the 4.5 °C global warming level.},
author = {Li, Guilong and Zhang, Xuebin and Cannon, Alex J. and Murdock, Trevor and Sobie, Steven and Zwiers, Francis and Anderson, Kevin and Qian, Budong},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2199-x},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {may},
number = {1-2},
pages = {249--263},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Indices of Canada's future climate for general and agricultural adaptation applications}},
volume = {148},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Li2016e,
abstract = {The interactive effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) (700$\mu$moll−1) and increased soil temperature (+2.4°C) on source-sink amino acid carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics and their relations to the concentration of grain protein components in winter wheat were investigated in greenhouse. Compared to the plants grown under ambient [CO2] (400$\mu$moll−1) the contribution of N translocated after anthesis to the grain decreased, however, the total amount of N accumulated in the grain after anthesis increased in the plants grown under elevated [CO2]. Exposure of the plants to elevated [CO2] enhanced C allocation towards leaf at anthesis, but the allocation of leaf C and N as amino acid C and N was reduced by the combination of elevated [CO2] and soil warming. In addition, the amino acid C and N in the grain were also significantly decreased by the combined elevated [CO2] and soil warming treatment. The grain protein concentration correlated linearly with grain amino acid C but not with grain amino acid N. Collectively, the results indicated that modification of C and N metabolisms in the source and sink under future climate change scenarios may significantly decreased the protein concentration, and, thereby, the quality of wheat grain.},
author = {Li, Xiangnan and Jiang, Dong and Liu, Fulai},
doi = {10.1016/j.envexpbot.2016.08.013},
issn = {00988472},
journal = {Environmental and Experimental Botany},
month = {dec},
pages = {121--129},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Dynamics of amino acid carbon and nitrogen and relationship with grain protein in wheat under elevated CO2 and soil warming}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0098847216301836 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0098847216301836},
volume = {132},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Li2018e,
abstract = {Changes in air temperature (AT), humidity and wind speed (Wind) affect apparent temperature (AP), the human-perceived equivalent temperature 1-3 . Here we show that under climate warming, both reanalysis data sets and Global Climate Model simulations indicate that AP has increased faster than AT over land. The faster increase in AP has been especially significant over low latitudes and is expected to continue in the future. The global land average AP increased at 0.04 °C per decade faster than AT before 2005. This trend is projected to increase to 0.06 °C (0.03-0.09 °C; minimum and maximum of the ensemble members) per decade and 0.17 °C (0.12-0.25 °C) per decade under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5, respectively, and reduce to 0.02 °C (0-0.03 °C) per decade under RCP2.6 over 2006-2100. The higher increment in AP in summer daytime is more remarkable than in winter night-time and is most prominent over low latitudes. The summertime increases in AT-based thermal discomfort are projected to balance the wintertime decreases in AT-based discomfort over low and middle latitudes, while the summertime increases in AP-based thermal discomfort are expected to outpace the wintertime decreases in AP-based thermal discomfort. Effective climate change mitigation efforts to achieve RCP2.6 can considerably alleviate the faster increase in AP.},
author = {Li, Jianfeng and Chen, Yongqin David and Gan, Thian Yew and Lau, Ngar Cheung},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-017-0036-2},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {43--47},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Elevated increases in human-perceived temperature under climate warming}},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Li2016c,
author = {Li, Chan-Juan and Chai, Yuan-Qing and Yang, Lin-Sheng and Li, Hai-Rong},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-016-2181-8},
issn = {0921-030X},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {721--731},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Spatio-temporal distribution of flood disasters and analysis of influencing factors in Africa}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-016-2181-8},
volume = {82},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Li2019c,
author = {Li, Linchao and Yao, Ning and Li, Yi and Liu, De Li and Wang, Bin and Ayantobo, Olusola O},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.10.019},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
month = {mar},
pages = {150--164},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Future projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809518307816},
volume = {217},
year = {2019}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079133,
abstract = {Abstract The detection of anthropogenic influences on climate extremes at regional scale is important for the development of national climate change policy. Global climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario are used to examine the time at which an anthropogenic influence becomes detectable in extreme precipitation over China and the change in probability of extreme precipitation with certain magnitudes when the changes are detectable. Anthropogenic influence is not significantly detected over China in the observational record or simulations from 1961 to 2012 based on the test of field significance. Simulations indicate that such change would become detectable in the future by around 2035. Large changes would already manifest by the time of signal detection; for example, extreme precipitation events that occur on average once every 20, 50, and 100 years in current (1986–2005) climate would reduce to about 15, 34, and 63 years on average by the time of detection around 2035.},
author = {Li, Wei and Jiang, Zhihong and Zhang, Xuebin and Li, Laurent},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079133},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {China,anthropogenic signal,detection,extreme precipitation},
number = {17},
pages = {9179--9185},
title = {{On the Emergence of Anthropogenic Signal in Extreme Precipitation Change Over China}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL079133},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Li2020c,
author = {Li, Baofu and Chen, Yaning and Shi, Xun},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7f},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {024012},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Does elevation dependent warming exist in high mountain Asia?}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7f},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Li2020b,
abstract = {Countries in East Asia have set ambitious goals for the development of wind energy to meet the increasing energy demand and to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. However, few studies have investigated changes in wind energy over East Asia under future climatic conditions. In this study, we investigate future changes of 100-m wind speed and wind energy potential over the CORDEX-East Asia region under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, by using ensemble simulations from the regional climate model Consortium for small-scale modeling in CLimate Mode (CCLM). A multivariate bias adjustment method based on the N-dimensional probability density function transform is used to correct raw simulated horizontal wind components. The comparison between future climate (2021–2050 and 2070–2099) and the present climate (1971–2000) shows decreases in wind speed, wind power density, and wind energy output over most of the CORDEX-East Asia region, especially in the tropics. Projected increases are pronounced over the Himalayan regions, the Indo-China Peninsula, the South China Sea, and the western Pacific Ocean in summer and over northeastern China, parts of Western China and the Indo-China Peninsula in winter. Interannual and intra-annual variability of wind power density are projected to intensify significantly for most of the CORDEX-East Asia region. The occurrence of weak wind speeds ({\textless}3 m/s) is projected to increase, while strong wind speeds ({\textgreater}11 m/s) are projected to decrease over most of the ocean.},
author = {Li, Delei and Feng, Jianlong and Dosio, Alessandro and Qi, Jifeng and Xu, Zhenhua and Yin, Baoshu},
doi = {10.1029/2020JD032874},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CCLM,CORDEX-East Asia,bias adjustment,climate projection,regional climate modeling,wind energy},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {e2020JD032874},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Historical Evaluation and Future Projections of 100‐m Wind Energy Potentials Over CORDEX‐East Asia}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JD032874},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Li2020f,
abstract = {River ice monitoring is important for hydrological research and water resource management of the Tibetan Plateau but limited by the serious shortage of field observations, and remote sensing can be used as an effective supplementary means for monitoring river ice. However, remote sensing high-altitude river ice is scarce and a basin-scale understanding of river ice is lacking on the Tibetan Plateau. To ascertain the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of high-altitude river ice at the basin scale, we selected the Babao River basin as the study area, which is a typical river basin located in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Utilizing 447 available Landsat images during the river ice period from 1999 to 2018 and the classical normalized difference snow index (NDSI) algorithm, we monitored the river ice in a long time series at the Babao River basin. The average Khat of accuracy validation reached 0.973. The average area of river ice in the river ice period of this basin showed a weak decreasing trend and was negatively correlated with air temperature. We also found that gentle slopes and high elevations are beneficial for the development of river ice. The melting of river ice supplements river discharge in spring. This study is the first to reveal the distribution characteristics and changing trend of river ice at the basin scale on the Tibetan Plateau, and the results provide a reference for river ice research in this region.},
author = {Li, Haojie and Li, Hongyi and Wang, Jian and Hao, Xiaohua},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2020.111915},
issn = {0034-4257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {Basin scale,Remote sensing,River ice,Tibetan Plateau},
pages = {111915},
title = {{Monitoring high-altitude river ice distribution at the basin scale in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau from a Landsat time-series spanning 1999–2018}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425720302856},
volume = {247},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Li2021,
abstract = {Anthropogenic warming may impact mean and extreme precipitation trends by enhancing the water cycle, potentially bringing threats to human societies. The design of national-level policy for disaster prevention and mitigation depends on the reliable detection of anthropogenic forcing in mean and extreme precipitation changes there. The anthropogenic signal might be obscured by strong internal variability at a regional scale. The goal of this study is to investigate the emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trends across China by using two large ensembles (CanESM2-LE and Community Earth System Model (CESM)-LE) of simulations during 1961–2010. Results show that the signal could not be detected in either mean or extreme precipitation trend during the current climate period (1961–2010). Following the RCP8.5 scenario, the signal is projected to emerge in mean precipitation around the 2020s and 2030s in the CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, respectively, much earlier than in extreme precipitation. For extreme precipitation, the signal could be steadily detected no earlier than the 2030s for CanESM2-LE and the 2040s for CESM-LE. These projected times of emergence in precipitation changes highlight the urgency of preparing for an uncharted hydrological future dominated by anthropogenic warming.},
author = {Li, Wei and Chen, Yang and Chen, Weilin},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abd26d},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {1},
pages = {14052},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{The emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over China by using two large ensembles}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd26d},
volume = {16},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Li2013b,
author = {Li, Tiantian and Horton, Radley M. and Kinney, Patrick L.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1902},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {717--721},
title = {{Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan, New York}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1902},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Li2020a,
abstract = {This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of {\~{}}7{\%} °C −1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.},
author = {Li, Chao and Zwiers, Francis and Zhang, Xuebin and Li, Guilong and Sun, Ying and Wehner, Michael},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1013.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3441--3460},
title = {{Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/9/JCLI-D-19-1013.1.xml},
volume = {34},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Li2018g,
abstract = {Abstract. This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 °C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 °C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2 °C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {quant-ph/1206.5131},
author = {Li, Camille and Michel, Clio and {Seland Graff}, Lise and Bethke, Ingo and Zappa, Giuseppe and Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Fischer, Erich and Harvey, Ben J. and Iversen, Trond and King, Martin P. and Krishnan, Harinarayan and Lierhammer, Ludwig and Mitchell, Daniel and Scinocca, John and Shiogama, Hideo and Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} A. and Wettstein, Justin J.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-359-2018},
eprint = {1206.5131},
isbn = {9781509015764},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {359--382},
primaryClass = {quant-ph},
title = {{Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/359/2018/ https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/359/2018/},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{LI201453,
abstract = {Knowledge about future oceanographic events will assist governments to better manage risk in coastal zones, a crucial task in the light of projected sea level rise, population growth and economic development. In this study, a 31-year data set of deep water wave climate parameters and bathymetry measurements (yearly cross-shore transect surveys) at Noordwijk, the Netherlands, were analysed to jointly estimate storm events variates of deep water wave conditions, and to probabilistically compute dune erosion volume and the resulting dune retreat distance with the simulated wave climate and possible local sea level rise scenarios by 2100. The probabilistic dune retreat models were applied and adjusted to the study site. Based on the outcomes of this application, a modelling technique can be established to propose a framework for probabilistically describing the coastal erosion and recession along the coast protected by dunes.},
author = {Li, F and van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. and Vrijling, J K and Callaghan, D P and Jongejan, R B and Ranasinghe, R},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2014.01.002},
issn = {0141-1187},
journal = {Applied Ocean Research},
keywords = {DUNERULE model,Dune erosion,Monte Carlo simulation,Probabilistic method,Sea level rise},
pages = {53--62},
title = {{Probabilistic estimation of coastal dune erosion and recession by statistical simulation of storm events}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141118714000042},
volume = {47},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Li2019h,
abstract = {Abstract Intense anthropogenic climate changes are expected to increase atmospheric aridity in the 21st century. The aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of annual precipitation (Pre) to atmospheric evaporation (potential evapotranspiration [PET]), represents an efficient indicator of climatic changes. However, the variations and underlying drivers of AI values have not been comprehensively compared in different climatic regions. Using the AI calculated on the basis of bias-corrected precipitation and optimized PET over the period of 1999?2017 and two climate model projections for the coming century, we investigated the response of the AI to climate change and quantified the contributions of climatic factors to AI variations in eight climatic regions in China, that is, the northwest (NW), north-centre (NC), northeast (NE), North China Plain (NCP), east (E), southeast (SE), southwest (SW) and Tibet Plateau (TP). The results indicated that the AI values in seven of the eight climate regions exhibited negative trends from 1999 to 2017, with mean values ranging from ?0.0008 in SW to ?0.0414 in NC, while the AI values in the TP region showed a significant positive trend, with a value of 0.0124. Pre was the dominant factor for the variations in AI values in all climate regions, with contribution rates from 65 to 308{\%}, followed by decreasing solar radiation in the NW, NC, E, SE and SW regions; deceasing wind speed in NE and NCP; and deceasing actual vapour pressure in the TP. The effect of increasing temperature on the AI trend was offset by other climate factors. By the end of the 21st century, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, the AI will significantly increase in five of the eight regions to values approximately 16.5{\%} higher than those during 1999?2017, and this increase in the AI will be dominated by increasing PET. Overall, the shift in the dominant AI factor from Pre in recent years to PET in the future indicates that more attention should be given to the response of the AI to global warming. Furthermore, regional differences in climate change and AI values during 2018?2,100 will inevitably influence water availability and urgently require the development of adaptation strategies for different climatic regions.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6137},
author = {Li, Yanzhong and Yu, Wenjun and Wang, Kaiwen and Ma, Xieyao},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6137},
file = {::},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {aridity index,attribution,climatic regions,global climate models (GCMs)},
month = {nov},
number = {14},
pages = {5256--5272},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Comparison of the aridity index and its drivers in eight climatic regions in China in recent years and in future projections}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6137 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6137},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Li2016f,
author = {Li, Zhiying and Fang, Haiyan},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.10.004},
issn = {00128252},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
month = {dec},
pages = {94--117},
title = {{Impacts of climate change on water erosion: A review}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012825216303555},
volume = {163},
year = {2016}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0500.1,
abstract = { AbstractBased on a comprehensive collection of hail observations and the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses from 1960 to 2012, the long-term trends of hail day frequency in mainland China and the associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns were analyzed. There was no detectable trend in hail frequency from 1960 to the early 1980s, but a significant decreasing trend was apparent in later periods throughout most of China and in particular over the Tibetan Plateau from the early 1980s and over northern and northwestern China from the early 1990s. Hail frequency in southern China did not decrease as significantly as in other regions over the last couple of decades. An objective classification method, the obliquely rotated T-mode principal component technique, was used to investigate atmospheric circulation patterns. It was found that 51.85{\%} of the hail days occurred during two major circulation types, both of which were associated with cold frontal systems in northern China. More specifically, the synoptic trough in East Asia, signified by the meridional circulation at 850 hPa, became considerably weaker after 1990. This change in the synoptic pattern is consistent with a weakening trend in the East Asian summer monsoon, the primary dynamic forcing of moisture transport that contributes to the generation of severe convection in northern China. The long-term variability of hail day frequency over the Tibetan Plateau was more strongly correlated with the change in mean freezing-level height (FLH) than the strength of the East Asian monsoon. },
author = {Li, Mingxin and Zhang, Qinghong and Zhang, Fuqing},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0500.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {19},
pages = {7027--7044},
title = {{Hail Day Frequency Trends and Associated Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over China during 1960–2012}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0500.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Liang2019,
author = {Liang, Yulian and Wang, Yongli and Zhao, Yinjun and Lu, Yuan and Liu, Xiaoying},
doi = {10.3390/w11051022},
journal = {Water},
number = {5},
pages = {1022},
title = {{Analysis and Projection of Flood Hazards over China}},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5548,
abstract = {Persistent wet-freezing events (PWFEs), a typical type of compound extremes, combine adverse effects from both its precipitation and temperature components, thereby posing great threats to human society and ecosystem. Atmospheric circulation patterns that govern the occurrence and persistence of PWFEs over southern China are identified and classified, based on cases during 1980–2010. There are two dominating types of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for PWFEs: a single blocking high type and a double blocking high type. The single blocking high type tends to occur under positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase, characteristics of a long-lived blocking high over the Lake Baikal in the middle troposphere favouring lower-level cold air masses penetrate southwards along a northeast–southwest route. Likewise, abundant water vapour advances northwards from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, meeting cold air masses over southern China under the upper-level divergence caused by the intensified upper-level subtropical jet which prevails on top of the western Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Locally, a stable temperature inversion structure is anchored in the lower troposphere. The double blocking high type features blocking highs over the Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk, along with an intensified trough between them. The upper-level subtropical jet over mid-latitude East Asia strengthens, providing divergence fields at upper troposphere. Low-level cold air masses move southwards from the Lake Baikal along a north route, converging with the water vapour transported from the Bay of Bengal to southern China by a low-level southwesterly jet. By contrast, the inversion layer is absent atop the region experiencing double blocking PWFEs. Regardless of event types, the duration of PWFEs is dedicated by Rossby wave energy dispersion through its role in maintaining blocking patterns during the PWFEs.},
author = {Liao, Zhen and Zhai, Panmao and Chen, Yang and Lu, Hong},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5548},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Rossby wave,blocking high pattern,persistent wet-freezing event},
month = {aug},
number = {10},
pages = {3976--3990},
title = {{Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with persistent wet-freezing events over southern China}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.5548 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5548},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6498,
abstract = {Abstract Southern China was hit by a severe cold event during January 21–25, 2016, characteristic of a drastic and sudden temperature drop, with new records of low temperatures set in widespread areas. This cold event was dynamically linked to the activity of the Arctic oscillation (AO) whose evolution led the event by about 2 weeks. Different from this short lasting but intense cold event in 2016, another cold event in the 2008 winter lasted much longer and occurred in tandem with freezing precipitation. Their differences in the duration and precipitation are essentially determined by differing behaviours of blocking highs at mid–high latitudes, the India–Burma Trough and the western Pacific subtropical high. The rapid southward invasion of cold air masses during the 2016 event resulted from the rapid decay of the blocking high, which emanated wave energies downstream and likewise lost wave energies to the local mean flow. By contrast, during the 2008 cold event, continuous upstream wave energy dispersion recurrently stimulated disturbances in the blocking domain, which then extracted energies from the mean flow efficiently to survive markedly longer. Moreover, in the 2008 case, the deepening of the India–Burma Trough and the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high jointly enhanced the moisture transport, leading to the freezing rain. This favourable configuration for precipitation was absent in the 2016 case, dictating its dry nature accordingly.},
author = {Liao, Zhen and Zhai, Panmao and Chen, Yang and Lu, Hong},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6498},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Rossby wave,blocking high,cold air,cold event},
month = {sep},
number = {11},
pages = {4944--4955},
title = {{Differing mechanisms for the 2008 and 2016 wintertime cold events in southern China}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6498 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6498},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lima2016,
abstract = {Aedes aegypti is an invasive, highly anthropophilic mosquito and a major vector for dengue and chikungunya. Population persistence in the continental United States is reportedly limited to southward of the average 10°C winter isotherm, which in the east, bisects Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, and South Carolina. We report on summer collections and genotypic analyses of Ae. aegypti collected in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in Washington, DC (WDC). Analysis of a 441-bp fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I gene sequence identified the same two haplotype sequences during 2011-2014, and placed these within two discrete groups known to be derived from lineages resident in the Americas. Analysis of 10 microsatellite loci for specimens collected during 2011-2014 revealed no evidence for introgression of new alleles across years. Overall, our data support a conclusion that this represents a resident WDC population, likely maintained during winter months in a subterranean habitat that facilitates year-round survival.},
author = {Lima, Andrew and Lovin, Diane D. and Hickner, Paul V. and Severson, David W.},
doi = {10.4269/ajtmh.15-0351},
isbn = {1476-1645 (Electronic)$\backslash$r0002-9637 (Linking)},
issn = {00029637},
journal = {American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {231--235},
pmid = {26526922},
publisher = {The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene},
title = {{Evidence for an overwintering population of aedes aegypti in capitol hill Neighborhood, Washington, DC}},
url = {http://www.ajtmh.org/content/journals/10.4269/ajtmh.15-0351},
volume = {94},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lima2012,
abstract = {Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71{\%} of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46{\%} of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38{\%} of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36{\%} of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public. {\textcopyright} 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.},
author = {Lima, Fernando P. and Wethey, David S.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms1713},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {704},
title = {{Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms1713},
volume = {3},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Limsakul2016,
author = {Limsakul, Atsamon and Singhruck, Patama},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.10.015},
issn = {0169-8095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
pages = {301--317},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand}},
volume = {169},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lin2018a,
author = {Lin, Lei and Wang, Zhili and Xu, Yangyang and Zhang, Xiaoye and Zhang, Hua and Dong, Wenjie},
doi = {10.1029/2018EF000862},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {968--978},
title = {{Additional Intensification of Seasonal Heat and Flooding Extreme Over China in a 2°C Warmer World Compared to 1.5°C}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018EF000862},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{LIN201241,
abstract = {This study aimed to identify optimal high-temperature indices to predict risks of all-cause mortality and outpatient visits for subtropical islanders in warm seasons (May to October). Eight high-temperature indices, including three single measurements (average, maximum and minimum temperature) and five composite indices (heat index, humidex, temperature humidity index, apparent temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature), and their standardized Z scores, were used in distributed lag non-linear models. Cumulative 8-day (lag zero to seven days) relative risks (RRs) and 95{\%} confidence intervals were estimated, 1 and 2 standardized deviations above the medium (i.e., at 84.1th and 97.7th percentile, respectively), by comparing with Z scores for the lowest risks of mortality and outpatient visits as references. Analyses were performed for Taipei in north, Central Taiwan and Southern Taiwan. Results showed that standardized Z-values of high-temperature indices associated with the lowest health risk were approximately 0 in Taipei and Central Taiwan, and −1 in Southern Taiwan. As the apparent temperature was at Z=2, the cumulative 8-day mortality risk increased significantly, by 23{\%} in Taipei and 28{\%} in Southern Taiwan, but not in Central Taiwan. The maximum temperature displayed consistently a high correlation with all-cause outpatient visits at Z=1; with the cumulative 8-day RRs for outpatient visits increased by 7{\%}, 3{\%}, and 4{\%} in the three corresponding areas. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated methods to compare multiple high-temperature indices associated with all-cause mortality and outpatient visits for population residing in a subtropical island. Apparent temperature is an optimal indicator for predicting all-cause mortality risk, and maximum temperature is recommended to associate with outpatient visits. The impact of heat varied with study areas, evaluated health outcomes, and high-temperature indices. The increased extreme heat is associated with stronger risk for all-cause mortality than for outpatient visits.},
author = {Lin, Yu-Kai and Chang, Chin-Kuo and Li, Ming-Hsu and Wu, Yu-Chung and Wang, Yu-Chun},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.04.039},
issn = {0048-9697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
keywords = {High-temperature indices,Mortality,Outpatient visits,Standardization,Taiwan},
pages = {41--49},
title = {{High-temperature indices associated with mortality and outpatient visits: Characterizing the association with elevated temperature}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969712005712},
volume = {427-428},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Lindner2014,
abstract = {The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty - which is imperative for decision making - without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support. {\textcopyright} 2014 Elsevier Ltd.},
author = {Lindner, Marcus and Fitzgerald, Joanne B. and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and Reyer, Christopher and Delzon, Sylvain and van der Maaten, Ernst and Schelhaas, Mart-Jan and Lasch, Petra and Eggers, Jeannette and van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke and Suckow, Felicitas and Psomas, Achilleas and Poulter, Benjamin and Hanewinkel, Marc},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.030},
isbn = {0301-4797},
issn = {03014797},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
keywords = {Climate change,Europe,Forest management,Forests,Uncertainty},
month = {dec},
pages = {69--83},
pmid = {25156267},
title = {{Climate change and European forests: What do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S030147971400379X},
volume = {146},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Linsbauer2016a,
abstract = {Surface digital elevation models (DEMs) and slope-related estimates of glacier thickness enable modelling of glacier-bed topographies over large ice-covered areas. Due to the erosive power of glaciers, such bed topographies can contain numerous overdeepenings, which when exposed following glacier retreat may fill with water and form new lakes. In this study, the bed overdeepenings for {\~{}}28 000 glaciers (40 775 km2) of the Himalaya-Karakoram region are modelled using GlabTop2 (Glacier Bed Topography model version 2), in which ice thickness is inferred from surface slope by parameterizing basal shear stress as a function of elevation range for each glacier. The modelled ice thicknesses are uncertain (±30{\%}), but spatial patterns of ice thickness and bed elevation primarily depend on surface slopes as derived from the DEM and, hence, are more robust. About 16 000 overdeepenings larger than 104m2 were detected in the modelled glacier beds, covering an area of {\~{}}2200 km2 and having a volume of {\~{}}120km3 (3-4{\%} of present-day glacier volume). About 5000 of these overdeepenings (1800 km2) have a volume larger than 106m3. The results presented here are useful for anticipating landscape evolution and potential future lake formation with associated opportunities (tourism, hydropower) and risks (lake outbursts).},
author = {Linsbauer, A and Frey, H and Haeberli, W and Machguth, H and Azam, M F and Allen, S},
doi = {DOI: 10.3189/2016AoG71A627},
edition = {2016/03/03},
issn = {0260-3055},
journal = {Annals of Glaciology},
keywords = {glacial geomorphology,glaciological model experiments,processes and landforms of glacial erosion},
number = {71},
pages = {119--130},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Modelling glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes for the glaciers in the Himalaya–Karakoram region}},
url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/modelling-glacierbed-overdeepenings-and-possible-future-lakes-for-the-glaciers-in-the-himalayakarakoram-region/C18FD61BBB68E27ECCF5657074A8246A},
volume = {57},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lionello2018,
abstract = {The recent (twentieth century) and future (twenty-first century) climate evolution in the Mediterranean region is analyzed in relation to annual mean global surface temperature change. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) simulations, the CRU (Climate Research Unit) observational gridded dataset, and two twentieth century reanalyzes (ECMWF, European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts) and NOAA ESRL (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Earth System Research Laboratory) are used. These datasets to large extent agree that in the twentieth century: (a) Mediterranean regional and global temperatures have warmed at a similar rate until the 1980s and (b) decadal variability determines a large uncertainty that prevents to identify long-term links between precipitation in the Mediterranean region and global temperature. However, in the twenty-first century, as mean global temperature increases, in the Mediterranean region, precipitation will decrease at a rate around − 20 mm/K or − 4{\%}/K and temperature will warm 20{\%} more than the global average. Warming will be particularly large in summer (approximately 50{\%} larger than global warming) and for the land areas located north of the basin (locally up to 100{\%} larger than global warming). Reduction of precipitation will affect all seasons in the central and southern Mediterranean areas, with maximum reduction for winter precipitation (− 7 mm/K or − 7{\%}/K for the southern Mediterranean region). For areas along the northern border of the Mediterranean region, reduction will be largest in summer (− 7 mm/K or − 9{\%}/K for the whole northern Mediterranean region), while they will not experience a significant reduction of precipitation in winter.},
author = {Lionello, Piero and Scarascia, Luca},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-018-1290-1},
isbn = {1011301812901},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Global temperature,Hotspot,Mediterranean region,Precipitation,Temperature},
month = {jun},
number = {5},
pages = {1481--1493},
title = {{The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-018-1290-1},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Lionello2017,
author = {Lionello, Piero and Conte, Dario and Marzo, Luigi and Scarascia, Luca},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.012},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
month = {apr},
pages = {80--91},
title = {{The contrasting effect of increasing mean sea level and decreasing storminess on the maximum water level during storms along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea in the mid 21st century}},
volume = {151},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lionello2016,
abstract = {The Mediterranean storm track constitutes a well-defined branch of the North Hemisphere storm track and is characterised by small but intense features and frequent cyclogenesis. The goal of this st...},
author = {Lionello, Piero and Trigo, Isabel F. and Gil, Victoria and Liberato, Margarida L. R. and Nissen, Katrin M. and Pinto, Joaquim G. and Raible, Christoph C. and Reale, Marco and Tanzarella, Annalisa and Trigo, Ricardo M. and Ulbrich, Sven and Ulbrich, Uwe},
doi = {10.3402/tellusa.v68.29391},
issn = {1600-0870},
journal = {Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {29391},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region: a consensus view among methods with different system identification and tracking criteria}},
volume = {68},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lionello2020,
abstract = {This study uses the results of 28 CMIP5 global climate projections to link regional climate extremes in the Mediterranean region to the global mean annual surface temperature change. It shows that global warming will further increase the existing difference in intensity of precipitation and hydrological extremes between north and south Mediterranean areas (SMed and NMed, respectively), while the increase/decrease of warm/cold temperature extremes will be only marginally larger in the SMed. The Simple daily precipitation intensity index (SDII) and the total precipitation during very wet days (R95pTOT) are already larger in the NMed than in the SMed; they will increase with global warming at a rate of approximately 0.1 mm/K and 5 mm/K, respectively, in the NMed, with no significant change in the SMed. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) is already larger in the SMed than in the NMed and will increase more in the former than in the latter (rates are about 8 days/K and 5 days/K, respectively). Global warming will not affect the difference of maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD), which is presently larger in the NMed than in the SMed and will decrease at a similar rate (about 0.5 days/K) in both areas. Changes of temperature extremes (warm nights, TN90p, and cold days, TX10p) will be similar in the north and south Mediterranean, though marginally larger in several areas of the SMed than in the NMed. Their increase will be dramatic and with a 4 K global warming almost all nights will be warm and there will be no cold days.},
author = {Lionello, Piero and Scarascia, Luca},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-020-01610-z},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
keywords = {Climate Change,Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts,Geography,Nature Conservation,Oceanography,Regional/Spatial Science,general},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {31},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
title = {{The relation of climate extremes with global warming in the Mediterranean region and its north versus south contrast}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-020-01610-z http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-020-01610-z},
volume = {20},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Littell2016a,
author = {Littell, Jeremy S. and Peterson, David L. and Riley, Karin L. and Liu, Yongquiang and Luce, Charles H.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13275},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {2353--2369},
title = {{A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13275},
volume = {22},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Liu2018b,
abstract = {Abstract Based on the large ensembles of the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts historical, +1.5 and +2 °C experiments, we quantify changes in the magnitude of water availability (i.e., precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration; a function of monthly precipitation flux, latent heat flux, and surface air temperature) below normal conditions (less than median, e.g., 20th percentile water availability). We found that, relative to the historical experiment, water availability below normal conditions of the +1.5 and +2 °C experiments would decrease in the midlatitudes and the tropics, indicating that hydrological drought is likely to increase in warmer worlds. These cause more (less) people in East Asia, Central Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia (West Africa and Alaska/Northwest Canada) to be exposed to water shortage. Stabilizing warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would limit population impact in most of the regions, less effective in Alaska/Northwest Canada, Southeast Asia, and Amazon. Globally, this reduced population impact is {\~{}}117 million people.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2018GL078789},
author = {Liu, Wenbin and Lim, Wee Ho and Sun, Fubao and Mitchell, Dann and Wang, Hong and Chen, Deliang and Bethke, Ingo and Shiogama, Hideo and Fischer, Erich},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078789},
file = {::},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {1.5 °C warming,global scale,population,shortage,water availability},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {9803--9813},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2°C Stabilization Scenarios}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078789},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Liu2014a,
author = {Liu, Gang and Heron, Scott and Eakin, C and Muller-Karger, Frank and Vega-Rodriguez, Maria and Guild, Liane and {De La Cour}, Jacqueline and Geiger, Erick and Skirving, William and Burgess, Timothy and Strong, Alan and Harris, Andy and Maturi, Eileen and Ignatov, Alexander and Sapper, John and Li, Jianke and Lynds, Susan},
doi = {10.3390/rs61111579},
issn = {2072-4292},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {11579--11606},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Reef-Scale Thermal Stress Monitoring of Coral Ecosystems: New 5-km Global Products from NOAA Coral Reef Watch}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/6/11/11579},
volume = {6},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Liu2019,
author = {Liu, Kin Sik and Chan, Johnny C L},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5919},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
number = {4},
pages = {1839--1852},
title = {{Inter‐decadal variability of the location of maximum intensity of category 4–5 typhoons and its implication on landfall intensity in East Asia}},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Liu2013c,
abstract = {This study is focused on indexes for the rice chilling injury in Heilongjiang Province during 1960-2009. Firstly, we compared a new derived climate data weighted by rice planting density with the traditional method, and found that the new one is more reasonable to assess the impact of climate change on crop yields. Considering the frequency and intensity of rice chilling in the province, secondly, chilling indexes defined by meteorological, national and international levels were assessed. The result showed that the meteorological standards were suitable for the delayed-type injury, while the international one, so-called sum of Growing Degree Day below threshold (GDDn-), characterized best the sterile-type chilling injury for rice. The explanation ability of the rice yield time series model including both injury types as two independent variables reached approximately 92{\%} (p {\textless} 0. 05). Finally, we concluded that the contribution rates of human and weather factors to rice yields are about 87. 2{\%} and 12. 8{\%} respectively, and as light increasing trend for sterile-type chilling injury was found during heading to flowing period in recent years, indicating a high chilling risk for rice planting in Heilongjiang Province in the future global warming. {\textcopyright} 2013 Science Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.},
author = {Liu, Xiaofei and Zhang, Zhao and Shuai, Jiabing and Wang, Pin and Shi, Wenjiao and Tao, Fulu and Chen, Yi},
doi = {10.1007/s11442-013-0995-9},
issn = {1009637X},
journal = {Journal of Geographical Sciences},
keywords = {Heilongjiang Province,chilling injury,rice production},
number = {1},
pages = {85--97},
title = {{Impact of chilling injury and global warming on rice yield in Heilongjiang Province}},
volume = {23},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Liu2016b,
abstract = {Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) specifically from wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046-2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county (n = 561) from wildfire PM2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results. The increase in intense wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95{\%} confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also raise health problems. The results provide information that can be incorporated into development of environmental and health policies in response to climate change. Climate change adaptation policies could incorporate scientific evidence on health risks from natural disasters such as wildfires.},
author = {Liu, Jia Coco and Mickley, Loretta J. and Sulprizio, Melissa P. and Yue, Xu and Peng, Roger D. and Dominici, Francesca and Bell, Michelle L.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124018},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {air pollution,climate change,respiratory health,wildfires},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {124018},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124018 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124018/meta},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Liu2018c,
author = {Liu, Wenbin and Sun, Fubao and Lim, Wee Ho and Zhang, Jie and Wang, Hong and Shiogama, Hideo and Zhang, Yuqing},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-267-2018},
isbn = {2190-4979},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {267--283},
title = {{Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/267/2018/ https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/267/2018/},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Livneh2020,
abstract = {Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical early warning of hydrologic drought. This paradigm faces an impending challenge given consensus that a smaller fraction of future precipitation will fall as snow. Here, we apply downscaled hydrologic simulations from 28 climate model projections to show that by mid-century (2036–2065), 69{\%} of historically snowmelt-dominated areas of the western United States see a decline in the ability of snow to predict seasonal drought, increasing to 83{\%} by late century (2070–2099). Reduced predictability arises when peak snowpack approaches zero or because of decreased warm-season runoff efficiency. Changes in drought prediction skill show significant (P {\textless} 0.01) elevation dependence, with lower-elevation coastal areas most impacted by warming. Ancillary predictive information can only partially mitigate snow-based predictability losses to 65{\%} of areas, underscoring the importance of declining future snowpack.},
author = {Livneh, Ben and Badger, Andrew M.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0754-8},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Civil engineering,Climate sciences,Hydrology,Water resources},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {452--458},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack}},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lkhamjav2017,
author = {Lkhamjav, Jambajamts and Jin, Han-Gyul and Lee, Hyunho and Baik, Jong-Jin},
doi = {10.1007/s13143-017-0052-1},
issn = {1976-7633},
journal = {Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {4},
pages = {501--509},
title = {{A hail climatology in Mongolia}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13143-017-0052-1},
volume = {53},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Llopart2014a,
author = {Llopart, Marta and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo and da Rocha, Rosmeri P. and Cuadra, Santiago V.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1140-1},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {111--125},
title = {{Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1140-1},
volume = {125},
year = {2014}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2017EF000665,
abstract = {Abstract The most common approaches to detection and attribution (D{\&}A) of extreme weather events using fraction of attributable risk or risk ratio answer a particular form of research question, namely “What is the probability of a certain class of weather events, given global climate change, relative to a world without?” In a set of recent papers, Trenberth et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657) and Shepherd (2016, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y) have argued that this is not always the best tool for analyzing causes, or for communicating with the public about climate events and extremes. Instead, they promote the idea of a “storyline” approach, which asks complementary questions, such as “How much did climate change affect the severity of a given storm?” From the vantage of history and philosophy of science, a proposal to introduce a new approach or to answer different research questions—especially those of public interest—does not appear particularly controversial. However, the proposal proved highly controversial, with the majority of D{\&}A scientists reacting in a very negative and even personal manner. Some suggested the proposed alternatives amount to a weakening of standards, or an abandonment of scientific method. Here, we address the question: Why is this such a controversial proposition? We argue that there is no “right” or “wrong” approach to D{\&}A in any absolute sense, but rather that in different contexts, society may have a greater or lesser concern with errors of a particular type. How we view the relative risk of overestimation versus underestimation of harm is context-dependent.},
author = {Lloyd, Elisabeth A and Oreskes, Naomi},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000665},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {Type I and Type II errors,detection and attribution,extreme event,framing questions,logic of research questions,null hypothesis},
number = {3},
pages = {311--325},
title = {{Climate Change Attribution: When Is It Appropriate to Accept New Methods?}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017EF000665},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Loarie2009,
abstract = {As the climate changes, species will have to move if they are to remain in an area with the same average temperature. Here, this required movement — termed the velocity of temperature change — is quantified. The results indicate management strategies for minimizing biodiversity loss from climate change and suggest that montane landscapes may effectively shelter many species into the next century.},
author = {Loarie, Scott R. and Duffy, Philip B. and Hamilton, Healy and Asner, Gregory P. and Field, Christopher B. and Ackerly, David D.},
doi = {10.1038/nature08649},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {dec},
number = {7276},
pages = {1052--1055},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The velocity of climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature08649},
volume = {462},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Lobell2014,
author = {Lobell, David B and Tebaldi, Claudia},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074003},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {074003},
title = {{Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/9/i=7/a=074003?key=crossref.8e7c20bfe100e9419ae3b01c9a85737c},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Lobell2015,
author = {Lobell, David B. and Hammer, Graeme L. and Chenu, Karine and Zheng, Bangyou and McLean, Greg and Chapman, Scott C.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13022},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {4115--4127},
title = {{The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in northeast Australia}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13022},
volume = {21},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lobell2013,
abstract = {Statistical analysis of maize yields in the United States reveals a strong negative response to very high temperatures, and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Now simulations using a process-based model suggest that the most important effects of extreme heat are associated with increased vapour-pressure deficit—which contributes to water stress—rather than direct heat stress on reproductive organs.},
author = {Lobell, David B. and Hammer, Graeme L. and McLean, Greg and Messina, Carlos and Roberts, Michael J. and Schlenker, Wolfram},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1832},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Agroecology,Climate change},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {497--501},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1832},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Lobell2012,
annote = {10.1038/nclimate1356},
author = {Lobell, David B and Sibley, Adam and Ortiz-Monasterio, J Ivan},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1356},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {186--189},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1356},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Loladze2014,
abstract = {Mineral malnutrition stemming from undiversified plant-based diets is a top global challenge. In C3 plants (e.g., rice, wheat), elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) reduce protein and nitrogen concentrations, and can increase the total non-structural carbohydrates (TNC; mainly starch, sugars). However, contradictory findings have obscured the effect of eCO2 on the ionome—the mineral and trace-element composition—of plants. Consequently, CO2-induced shifts in plant quality have been ignored in the estimation of the impact of global change on humans. This study shows that eCO2 reduces the overall mineral concentrations (−8{\%}, 95{\%} confidence interval: −9.1 to −6.9, p{\textless}0.00001) and increases TNC:minerals {\textgreater} carbon:minerals in C3 plants. The meta-analysis of 7761 observations, including 2264 observations at state of the art FACE centers, covers 130 species/cultivars. The attained statistical power reveals that the shift is systemic and global. Its potential to exacerbate the prevalence of ‘hidden hunger' and obesity is discussed.},
author = {Loladze, Irakli},
doi = {10.7554/eLife.02245},
issn = {2050-084X},
journal = {eLife},
month = {may},
pages = {e02245},
title = {{Hidden shift of the ionome of plants exposed to elevated CO2 depletes minerals at the base of human nutrition}},
url = {https://elifesciences.org/articles/02245},
volume = {3},
year = {2014}
}
@article{LosadaCarreno2020,
author = {{Losada Carre{\~{n}}o}, Ignacio and Craig, Michael T and Rossol, Michael and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Batibeniz, Fulden and Haupt, Sue Ellen and Draxl, Caroline and Hodge, Bri-Mathias and Brancucci, Carlo},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02891-3},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {2},
pages = {745--766},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02891-3},
volume = {163},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Lourenco2016,
abstract = {With the concept of climate services rapidly climbing research and research-funding agendas worldwide, the time is ripe for a debate about the objectives, scope and content of such services. O ver the past decade, multiple frameworks and agendas have been proposed for climate services 1–7 . These initiatives have tried to keep up with an ever-growing knowledge base, a more informed appreciation of the importance of climate for decision-making, and a greater demand for all sorts of climate-related information. Yet there are still plenty of questions left about what climate services actually constitute, who their users are, how they relate to research, and what their value is for innovation, economic growth and development. Are the users of climate change research and of climate services necessarily the same? To what extent should the future of climate change research and of its researchers be inspired by the needs of service clients? The World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) 4,6 defines climate services as " providing climate information in a way that assists decision-making by individuals and organizations. A service requires appropriate engagement along with an effective access mechanism and must respond to user needs. " It identifies a set of priority areas and sectors, but does not define which decision-making processes need what information, or why they need it. Rather the focus is on what information is available and the format in which it can be delivered 6},
author = {Louren{\c{c}}o, Tiago Capela and Swart, Rob and Goosen, Hasse and Street, Roger},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2836},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {13--14},
title = {{The rise of demand-driven climate services}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2836},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Lovelock2015,
abstract = {Assessment of mangrove forest surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific coastal region finds that almost 70 per cent of the sites studied do not have enough sediment availability to offset predicted sea-level rise; modelling indicates that such sites could be submerged as early as 2070.},
author = {Lovelock, Catherine E. and Cahoon, Donald R. and Friess, Daniel A. and Guntenspergen, Glenn R. and Krauss, Ken W. and Reef, Ruth and Rogers, Kerrylee and Saunders, Megan L. and Sidik, Frida and Swales, Andrew and Saintilan, Neil and Thuyen, Le Xuan and Triet, Tran},
doi = {10.1038/nature15538},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Climate,Environmental sciences,change ecology},
month = {oct},
number = {7574},
pages = {559--563},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature15538},
volume = {526},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lowe2017,
abstract = {Background El Ni{\~{n}}o and its effect on local meteorological conditions potentially influences interannual variability in dengue transmission in southern coastal Ecuador. El Oro province is a key dengue surveillance site, due to the high burden of dengue, seasonal transmission, co-circulation of all four dengue serotypes, and the recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika. In this study, we used climate forecasts to predict the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in the city of Machala, following one of the strongest El Ni{\~{n}}o events on record. Methods We incorporated precipitation, minimum temperature, and Ni{\~{n}}o3{\textperiodcentered}4 index forecasts in a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model to predict dengue incidence. The model was initiated on Jan 1, 2016, producing monthly dengue forecasts until November, 2016. We accounted for misreporting of dengue due to the introduction of chikungunya in 2015, by using active surveillance data to correct reported dengue case data from passive surveillance records. We then evaluated the forecast retrospectively with available epidemiological information. Findings The predictions correctly forecast an early peak in dengue incidence in March, 2016, with a 90{\%} chance of exceeding the mean dengue incidence for the previous 5 years. Accounting for the proportion of chikungunya cases that had been incorrectly recorded as dengue in 2015 improved the prediction of the magnitude of dengue incidence in 2016. Interpretation This dengue prediction framework, which uses seasonal climate and El Ni{\~{n}}o forecasts, allows a prediction to be made at the start of the year for the entire dengue season. Combining active surveillance data with routine dengue reports improved not only model fit and performance, but also the accuracy of benchmark estimates based on historical seasonal averages. This study advances the state-of-the-art of climate services for the health sector, by showing the potential value of incorporating climate information in the public health decision-making process in Ecuador. Funding European Union FP7, Royal Society, and National Science Foundation.},
author = {Lowe, Rachel and Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M. and Petrova, Desislava and Garc{\'{i}}a-D{\'{i}}ez, Markel and Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J. and Mej{\'{i}}a, Ra{\'{u}}l and Regato, Mary and Rod{\'{o}}, Xavier},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30064-5},
issn = {25425196},
journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {e142--e151},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Climate services for health: predicting the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in Machala, Ecuador}},
volume = {1},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lu2019c,
abstract = {Future climate changes could alter hydrometeorological patterns and change the nature of droughts at global to regional scales. However, there are considerable uncertainties in future drought projections. Here, we focus on agricultural drought by analyzing surface soil moisture outputs from CMIP5 multi-model ensembles (MMEs) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. First, the annual mean soil moisture by the end of the 21st century shows statistically significant large-scale drying and limited areas of wetting for all scenarios, with stronger drying as the strength of radiative forcing increases. Second, the MME mean spatial extent of severe drought is projected to increase for all regions and all future RCP scenarios, and most notably in Central America (CAM), Europe and Mediterranean (EUM), Tropical South America (TSA), and South Africa (SAF). Third, the model uncertainty presents the largest source of uncertainty (over 80{\%}) across the entire 21st century among the three sources of uncertainty: internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. Finally, we find that the spatial pattern and magnitude of annual and seasonal signal to noise (S/N) in soil moisture anomalies do not change significantly by lead time, indicating that the spreads of uncertainties become larger as the signals become stronger.},
author = {Lu, Junyu and Carbone, Gregory J. and Grego, John M.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-41196-z},
file = {::},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {4922},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Uncertainty and hotspots in 21st century projections of agricultural drought from CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-41196-z},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lu2018,
abstract = {The duration of warm and cold spells is measured by the persistence of instances when daily temperatures are greatly above or below their normal values. These spells represent a prolonged period of times when daily temperatures are extreme and can potentially be connected to climate impacts in the agricultural, health, energy and other sectors. This study aims to determine evidence of responses in the durations of warm (WSDI) and cold (CSDI) spells to forcings external to the climate system. We consider the globe, the six continents and China during the period from 1958−2010 in this analysis. Here we compare the observed duration indices with those derived from simulated daily temperature by climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), using an optimal fingerprint method. The results show that, averaged over the global lands, the WSDI has substantially increased by 15 days while the CSDI has decreased by 3 days over the 53 year period. The simulated changes are generally consistent with the observations; models, however, overestimate the observed changes in the WSDI in five of the six continental regions. We consider a signal is detected if it is significant at the 10{\%} level. At the global scale, human influences on both warm and cold spell durations are detected. At the continental scale, an anthropogenic signal is detected in the warm spell durations of most continents. The human influence on cold spell duration is detectable only in the Asian and European continents. In China, human influence can clearly be detected in both the warm and cold spell durations. Responses to natural forcings are generally not detected at the continental or smaller spatial scales.},
author = {Lu, Chunhui and Sun, Ying and Zhang, Xuebin},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aacb3e},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {7},
pages = {74013},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Multimodel detection and attribution of changes in warm and cold spell durations}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aacb3e},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@unpublished{Lu2019b,
abstract = {This working paper focuses on building resilient infrastructure and opportunities for future partnerships and synergies regionally and internationally. It was prepared to provide inputs for discussions at the Group of Twenty (G20) Climate Sustainability Working Group meeting in Tokyo, Japan, in February 2019. It provides insights on the experience of and lessons learned by the Asian Development Bank on resilient infrastructure and highlights opportunities for future partnerships and synergies with partners in the development and finance communities regionally and internationally. It also explores new financing modalities for building resilient infrastructure.},
address = {Manila, Philippines},
author = {Lu, Xianfu},
doi = {10.22617/WPS190340-2},
file = {::},
keywords = {adaptation,adb publications,adb sdcc,adb strategy 2030,adb working papers,climate change,climate change vulnerability,climate financing,climate funds,climate resilience,climate risk management,climate sustainability,disaster resilience,disaster risk reduction,g20,group of twenty,infrastructure investments,resilient infrastructure,xianfu lu},
month = {aug},
pages = {38},
publisher = {Asian Development Bank (ADB)},
series = {ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series No .61},
title = {{Building Resilient Infrastructure for the Future: Background paper for the G20 Climate Sustainability Working Group}},
url = {https://www.adb.org/publications/building-resilient-infrastructure-future},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Lu2019a,
abstract = {As the second biggest economy in the world, China has been experiencing significant impacts of global climate change. Developing future projections of regional climate over China is an indispensable step for designing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies against future climate change. To this end, this study focuses on exploring how the regional climate over China, including the mean and extreme climate, will be affected in the context of global warming throughout this century. The RegCM model is used to develop high-resolution climate scenarios for the whole country of China driven by boundary conditions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RegCM performance on simulating the present climate over China is evaluated and the results indicate that it is capable of reproducing the spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation. Future projections from RegCM suggest that an increase of 2 °C in daily mean temperature is expected in China by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP4.5 while an increase of 4 °C would be seen under RCP8.5. The Tibetan Plateau is likely to expect the most substantial temperature increase as well as the most significant decrease in extreme cold climate in China. In comparison, the annual total precipitation over China is projected to increase by 58 mm/year at the end of the twenty-first century under RCP4.5 and by 71 mm/year under RCP8.5. The projected changes in precipitation show apparent spatial variability due to the influences of local topography and land cover/use.},
author = {Lu, Chen and Huang, Guohe and Wang, Xiuquan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04899-7},
file = {::},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {9},
pages = {5859--5880},
title = {{Projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and their extremes over China through the RegCM}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04899-7},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Luedeling2012,
abstract = {Temperate fruit and nut species require exposure to chilling conditions in winter to break dormancy and produce high yields. Adequate winter chill is an important site characteristic for commercial orchard operations, and quantifying chill is crucial for orchard management. Climate change may impact winter chill. With a view to adapting orchards to climate change, this review assesses the state of knowledge in modelling winter chill and the performance of various modelling approaches. It then goes on to present assessments of past and projected future changes in winter chill for fruit growing regions and discusses potential adaptation strategies. Some of the most common approaches to modelling chill, in particular the Chilling Hours approach, are very sensitive to temperature increases, and have also been found to perform poorly, especially in warm growing regions. The Dynamic Model offers a more complex but also more accurate alternative, and use of this model is recommended. Chill changes projected with the Dynamic Model are typically much less severe than those estimated with other models. Nevertheless, projections of future chill consistently indicate substantial losses for the warmest growing regions, while temperate regions will experience relatively little change, and cold regions may even see chill increases. Growers can adapt to lower chill by introducing low-chill cultivars, by influencing orchard microclimates and by applying rest-breaking chemicals. Given substantial knowledge gaps in tree dormancy, accurate models are still a long way off. Since timely adaptation is essential for growers of long-lived high-value perennials, alternative ways of adaptation planning are needed. Climate analogues, which are present-day manifestations of future projected climates, can be used for identifying and testing future-adapted species and cultivars. Horticultural researchers and practitioners should work towards the development and widespread adoption of better chill accumulation and dormancy models, for facilitating quantitatively appropriate adaptation planning. {\textcopyright} 2012 Elsevier B.V.},
author = {Luedeling, Eike},
doi = {10.1016/j.scienta.2012.07.011},
isbn = {0304-4238},
issn = {03044238},
journal = {Scientia Horticulturae},
keywords = {Adaptation,Chill Portions,Chilling Hours,Climate analogues,Dynamic Model,Tree dormancy},
month = {sep},
pages = {218--229},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: A review}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304423812003305 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304423812003305},
volume = {144},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Lugon2010,
author = {Lugon, Ralph and Stoffel, Markus},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.06.004},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
month = {sep},
number = {3-4},
pages = {202--210},
title = {{Rock-glacier dynamics and magnitude–frequency relations of debris flows in a high-elevation watershed: Ritigraben, Swiss Alps}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818110001311},
volume = {73},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Luijendijk2018,
abstract = {Coastal zones constitute one of the most heavily populated and developed land zones in the world. Despite the utility and economic benefits that coasts provide, there is no reliable global-scale assessment of historical shoreline change trends. Here, via the use of freely available optical satellite images captured since 1984, in conjunction with sophisticated image interrogation and analysis methods, we present a global-scale assessment of the occurrence of sandy beaches and rates of shoreline change therein. Applying pixel-based supervised classification, we found that 31{\%} of the world's ice-free shoreline are sandy. The application of an automated shoreline detection method to the sandy shorelines thus identified resulted in a global dataset of shoreline change rates for the 33 year period 1984-2016. Analysis of the satellite derived shoreline data indicates that 24{\%} of the world's sandy beaches are eroding at rates exceeding 0.5 m/yr, while 28{\%} are accreting and 48{\%} are stable. The majority of the sandy shorelines in marine protected areas are eroding, raising cause for serious concern. Coastal zones have historically attracted humans and human activities due to the abundant amenity, aesthetic value and diverse ecosystem services that they provide. As a result, the coastal zone all over the world has become heavily populated and developed 1-3 with 15 of the 20 megacities (population {\textgreater}10 million) of the world being located in the coastal zone. The global coastline is spatially highly variable and comprises several different types of coastal landforms, some examples being barrier islands, sea cliffs, tidal flats, and river deltas. Of these different coastline types, here we focus on sandy coasts, which are highly dynamic in time and space, and constitute a substantial part of world's coastline 4. As sandy coasts are highly developed and densely populated due to the amenity and aesthetics that they provide, erosion of these coasts over the last few decades is already resulting in coastal squeeze 5. Inevitably, climate change impacts on sandy coasts will only exacerbate this situation 6,7. Thus, reliable assessments of the occurrence of sandy coasts and their rates of shoreline change are basic necessities for effective spatial planning, sustainable coastal development, coastal engineering projects, and mitigation of climate change impacts along high value coastlines around the world. Despite the utility, economic benefits, and the dynamic nature of san{\ldots}},
author = {Luijendijk, Arjen and Hagenaars, Gerben and Ranasinghe, Roshanka and Baart, Fedor and Donchyts, Gennadii and Aarninkhof, Stefan},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-24630-6},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Civil engineering,Geomorphology,Physical oceanography},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {6641},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The State of the World's Beaches}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-24630-6},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Luo2019,
author = {Luo, Min and Liu, Tie and Meng, Fanhao and Duan, Yongchao and Bao, Anming and Frankl, Amaury and {De Maeyer}, Philippe},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5901},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1571--1588},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Spatiotemporal characteristics of future changes in precipitation and temperature in Central Asia}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5901},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{LuoM.&Lau2017,
author = {Luo, Ming and Lau, Ngar-Cheung},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0269.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {703--720},
title = {{Heat Waves in Southern China: Synoptic Behavior, Long-Term Change, and Urbanization Effects}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0269.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Lute2015,
author = {Lute, A. C. and Abatzoglou, J. T. and Hegewisch, K. C.},
doi = {10.1002/2014WR016267},
issn = {00431397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {climate change,climate variability,extreme events,snow},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {960--972},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014WR016267},
volume = {51},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Lutz2014,
author = {Lutz, A F and Immerzeel, W W and Shrestha, A B and Bierkens, M F P},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2237},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {587--592},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2237},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Lyu2014a,
author = {Lyu, Kewei and Zhang, Xuebin and Church, John A and Slangen, Aim{\'{e}}e B A and Hu, Jianyu},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2397},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1006--1010},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Time of emergence for regional sea-level change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2397},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Makinen2018a,
author = {M{\"{a}}kinen, H. and Kaseva, J. and Trnka, M. and Balek, J. and Kersebaum, K.C. and Nendel, C. and Gobin, A. and Olesen, J.E. and Bindi, M. and Ferrise, R. and Moriondo, M. and Rodr{\'{i}}guez, A. and Ruiz-Ramos, M. and Tak{\'{a}}{\v{c}}, J. and Bez{\'{a}}k, P. and Ventrella, D. and Ruget, F. and Capellades, G. and Kahiluoto, H.},
doi = {10.1016/j.fcr.2017.11.008},
issn = {03784290},
journal = {Field Crops Research},
month = {jun},
pages = {209--217},
title = {{Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378429017310572},
volume = {222},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Molter2016,
abstract = {This is an overview of the results from previously published climate modeling studies reporting on projected aspects of future storminess over the North Atlantic European region (NAER) in the period 2020–2190. Changes in storminess are summarized for seven subregions in the study area and rated by a categorical evaluation scheme that takes into account emission scenarios and modeling complexity in the reviewed studies. Although many of the reviewed studies reported an increase in the intensity of high-impact wind speed and extreme cyclone frequency in the second half of the 21st century, the projections of aspects of future storminess over the NAER differed regionally. There is broad consensus that the frequency and intensity of storms, cyclones, and high-impact wind speed will increase over Central and Western Europe, and these changes will probably have the potential to produce more damage. In contrast, future extratropical storminess over Southern Europe is very likely to decrease. For Northern and Eastern Europe the results of the evaluation are inconclusive, because there is an indication of increasing as well as decreasing development of the evaluated aspects of future storminess. Concerning the storm track, we found indications of a likely north- and eastward shift in most assessed studies. Results from three studies suggest a northeastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation.},
author = {M{\"{o}}lter, Tina and Schindler, Dirk and Albrecht, Axel and Kohnle, Ulrich},
doi = {10.3390/atmos7040060},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
keywords = {Climate projections,Cyclones,Storm track,Storminess,Storms},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {60},
title = {{Review on the Projections of Future Storminess over the North Atlantic European Region}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/7/4/60},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Muller2014,
abstract = {Atmospheric CO2 fertilization may go some way to compensating the negative impact of climatic changes on crop yields, but it comes at the expense of a deterioration of the current nutritional value of food.},
author = {M{\"{u}}ller, Christoph and Elliott, Joshua and Levermann, Anders},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2290},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Agriculture,Climate,change impacts},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {540--541},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Fertilizing hidden hunger}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2290},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Mader2010,
abstract = {Numerous models and indices exist that attempt to characterize the effect of environmental factors on the comfort of animals and humans. Heat and cold indices have been utilized to adjust ambient temperature (Ta) for the effects of relative humidity (RH) or wind speed (WS) or both for the purposes of obtaining a "feels-like" or apparent temperature. However, no model has been found that incorporates adjustments for RH, WS, and radiation (RAD) over conditions that encompass hot and cold environmental conditions. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive climate index (CCI) that has application under a wide range of environmental conditions and provides an adjustment to Ta for RH, WS, and RAD. Environmental data were compiled from 9 separate summer periods in which heat stress events occurred and from 6 different winter periods to develop and validate the CCI. The RH adjustment is derived from an exponential relationship between Ta and RH with temperature being adjusted up or down from an RH value of 30{\%}. At 45 degrees C, the temperature adjustment for increasing RH from 30 to 100{\%} equals approximately 16 degrees C, whereas at -30 degrees C temperature adjustments due to increasing RH from 30 to 100{\%} equal approximately -3.0 degrees C, with greater RH values contributing to a reduced apparent temperature under cold conditions. The relationship between WS and temperature adjustments was also determined to be exponential with a logarithmic adjustment to define appropriate declines in apparent temperature as WS increases. With this index, slower WS results in the greatest change in apparent temperature per unit of WS regardless of whether hot or cold conditions exist. As WS increases, the change in apparent temperature per unit of WS becomes less. Based on existing windchill and heat indices, the effect of WS on apparent temperature is sufficiently similar to allow one equation to be utilized under hot and cold conditions. The RAD component was separated into direct solar radiation and ground surface radiation. Both of these were found to have a linear relationship with Ta. This index will be useful for further development of biological response functions, which are associated with energy exchange, and improving decision-making processes, which are weather-dependent. In addition, the defined thresholds can serve as management and environmental mitigation guidelines to protect and ensure animal comfort.},
author = {Mader, T. L. and Johnson, L. J. and Gaughan, J. B.},
doi = {10.2527/jas.2009-2586},
isbn = {1525-3163},
issn = {00218812},
journal = {Journal of Animal Science},
keywords = {Bioclimatic index,Cold stress,Domestic livestock,Environmental factor,Environmental model,Heat stress},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {2153--2165},
pmid = {20118427},
title = {{A comprehensive index for assessing environmental stress in animals}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/jas/article/88/6/2153-2165/4779866},
volume = {88},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Madsen2019,
abstract = {2D sea level trend and variability fields of the Baltic Sea were reconstructed based on statistical modeling of monthly tide gauge observations, and model reanalysis as a reference. The reconstruction included both absolute and relative sea level (RSL) in 11 km resolution over the period 1900–2014. The reconstructed monthly sea level had an average correlation of 96{\%} and root mean square error of 3.8 cm with 56 tide gauges independent of the statistical model. The statistical reconstruction of sea level was based on multiple linear regression and took land deformation information into account. An assessment of the quality of an open ocean altimetry product (ESA Sea Level CCI ECV, hereafter “the CCI”) in this regional sea was performed by validating the variability against the reconstruction as an independent source of sea level information. The validation allowed us to determine how close to the coast the CCI can be considered reliable. The CCI matched reconstructed sea level variability with correlation above 90{\%} and root-mean-square (RMS) difference below 6 cm in the southern and open part of the Baltic Proper. However, areas with seasonal sea ice and areas of high natural variability need special treatment. The reconstructed RSL change, which is important for coastal communities, was found to be dominated by isostatic land movements. This pattern was confirmed by independent observations and the values were provided along the entire coastline of the Baltic Sea. The area averaged absolute sea level change for the Baltic Sea was 1.3 ± 0.3 mm/yr for the 20th century, which was slightly below the global mean for the same period. Considering the relative shortness of the satellite era, natural variability made trend estimation sensitive to the selected data period, but the linear trends derived from the reconstruction (3.4 ± 0.7 mm/yr for 1993–2014) fitted with those of the CCI (4.0 ± 1.4 mm/yr for 1993–2015) and with global mean estimates within the limits of uncertainty.},
author = {Madsen, Kristine S. and H{\o}yer, Jacob L. and Suursaar, {\"{U}}lo and She, Jun and Knudsen, Per},
doi = {10.3389/feart.2019.00243},
issn = {2296-6463},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
keywords = {GIA,PSMSL,climate change,satellite altimetry,sea level change,sea level modeling},
month = {sep},
pages = {243},
publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},
title = {{Sea Level Trends and Variability of the Baltic Sea From 2D Statistical Reconstruction and Altimetry}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2019.00243/full},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Magnan2019a,
author = {Magnan, Alexandre K and Garschagen, Matthias and Gattuso, Jean-Pierre and Hay, John E and Pereira, Joy and Petzold, Jan and Garschagen, M and Gattuso, J-p and Hay, Je and Hilmi, N and Holland, E and Isla, F and Kofinas, G and Losada, Ij and Petzold, J and P{\"{o}}rtner, H-o and Roberts, DC and Masson-Delmotte, V and Zhai, P and Tignor, M and Poloczanska, E and Mintenbeck, K and Alegr{\'{i}}a, A and Nicolai, M and Okem, A and Rama, B and Weyer, NM},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {657--674},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Cross-Chapter Box 9: Integrative Cross-Chapter Box on Low-Lying Islands and Coasts}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/cross-chapter-box-9-integrative-cross-chapter-box-on-low-lying-islands-and-coasts},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{Magrin2015,
abstract = {La finalidad de este documento es brindar informaci{\'{o}}n a los tomadores de decisiones sobre$\backslash$r$\backslash$nel estado del arte y las posibles medidas de intervenci{\'{o}}n para enfrentar el cambio clim{\'{a}}tico en el sector agropecuario y los medios de vida rurales de Am{\'{e}}rica Latina y el Caribe. El informe se centra en las necesidades, opciones y pol{\'{i}}ticas de adaptaci{\'{o}}n, y en el nexo entre adaptaci{\'{o}}n-mitigaci{\'{o}}n y desarrollo sostenible. Parte del texto est{\'{a}} basado en varios cap{\'{i}}tulos de los {\'{u}}ltimos informes del IPCC (AR5), a los que se agregaron nuevas referencias y citas generalmente aparecidas con posterioridad a las publicaciones del IPCC.},
author = {Magrin, Graciela},
pages = {80},
publisher = {Comisi{\'{o}}n Econ{\'{o}}mica para Am{\'{e}}rica Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL)},
title = {{Adaptaci{\'{o}}n al cambio clim{\'{a}}tico en Am{\'{e}}rica Latina y el Caribe}},
url = {https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/39842-adaptacion-al-cambio-climatico-america-latina-caribe},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Mahoney2012,
abstract = {The effect of a warming climate on hailstorm frequency and intensity is largely unknown. Global climate models have too coarse resolution to simulate hailstorms explicitly; thus it is unclear if a warmer climate will change hailstorm frequency and intensity, and if so, whether such events will become more likely through intensified thunderstorms or less likely owing to overall warmer conditions. Here we investigate hail generation and maintenance for warm-season extreme precipitation events in Colorado, USA, for both present-day and projected future climates using high-resolution model simulations capable of resolving hailstorms. Most simulations indicate a near-elimination of hail at the surface in future simulations for this region, despite more intense future storms and significantly larger amounts of hail generated in-cloud. An increase in the height of the environmental melting level due to climate warming is found to be the primary reason for the disappearance of surface hail, as the warmer atmosphere increases the melting of frozen precipitation. A decrease in future surface hail at high-elevation locations may imply potential changes in both hail damage and flood risk. {\textcopyright} 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.},
author = {Mahoney, Kelly and Alexander, Michael A. and Thompson, Gregory and Barsugli, Joseph J. and Scott, James D.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1344},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {125--131},
title = {{Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains}},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@techreport{Mair2019,
abstract = {Demand for freshwater on the Island of Maui is expected to increase by 45 percent between 2015 and 2035. Groundwater availability on Maui is affected by changes in climate and agricultural irrigation. To evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater under projected future climate conditions and changing agricultural irrigation practices, estimates of groundwater recharge are needed. A water-budget model with a daily computation interval was used to estimate the spatial distribution of recharge on Maui for one present-day and two future-climate scenarios. All three scenarios used 2017 land cover. The two future-climate scenarios, including one wetter than the present-day scenario and one drier than the present-day scenario, were developed using available high-resolution downscaled climate projections. The drier future scenario was developed using projections for a Representative Concentration Pathway warming scenario during 2071–99 with total radiative forcing of 8.5 Watts per square meter by the year 2100 (RCP8.5 2071–99 scenario), whereas the wetter future scenario was developed using projections for a “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” A1B emission scenario during 2080–99 (A1B 2080–99 scenario). For the RCP8.5 2071–99 scenario, projected mean annual recharge decrease for Maui is about 172 million gallons per day, or about 14 percent less than present-day recharge, which is estimated to be 1,232 million gallons per day. Recharge for the RCP8.5 2071–99 scenario is projected to decrease in 22 of Maui's 25 aquifer systems, which are defined by the Hawaiʻi Commission on Water Resource Management. For the A1B 2080–99 future scenario, projected mean annual recharge increase for Maui is about 144 million gallons per day, or about 12 percent more than present-day recharge. Recharge for the A1B 2080–99 scenario is projected to increase in 17 of Maui's 25 aquifer systems. Between the two future scenarios, a total of 11 aquifer systems show similar direction in drying (Kahului, Kama‘ole, Lualaʻilua, Makawao, Olowalu, Pāʻia, Ukumehame, Waikapū) or wetting (Honopou, Kawaipapa, and Waikamoi) changes for recharge. Selectively modifying the climate inputs for the A1B 2080–99 scenario indicates that the projected changes in rainfall account for most of the projected changes in recharge for Maui's 25 aquifer systems. However, projected changes in reference evapotranspiration and forest-canopy evaporation also can account for a substantial part of the projected changes in recharge where changes in reference evapotranspiration are relatively large and where changes in forest-canopy evaporation extend across large forested areas. Projected changes in daily rainfall frequency have a relatively small but non-negligible impact on recharge estimates.},
address = {Reston, VA},
author = {Mair, Alan and Johnson, Adam G and Rotzoll, Kolja and Oki, Delwyn S},
doi = {10.3133/sir20195064},
keywords = {Prepared in cooperation with the County of Maui De},
pages = {46},
publisher = {U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)},
series = {U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2019-5064},
title = {{Estimated groundwater recharge from a water-budget model incorporating selected climate projections, Island of Maui, Hawai'i}},
url = {https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20195064},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Malherbe2013,
abstract = {The conformal-cubic atmospheric model, a variable resolution global model, is applied at high spatial resolution to perform simulations of present-day and future climate over southern Africa and over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The model is forced with the bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice of six coupled global climate models that contributed to Assessment Report 4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. All six simulations are for the period 1961-2100, under the A2 emission scenario. Projections for the latter part of the 21st century indicate a decrease in the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the Southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to southern Africa, as well as a northward shift in the preferred landfall position of these systems over the southern African subcontinent. A concurrent increase in January to March rainfall is projected for northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania, with decreases projected further south over semi-arid areas such as the Limpopo River Basin where these systems make an important contribution as main cause of widespread heavy rainfall. It is shown that the projected changes in tropical cyclone attributes and regional rainfall occur in relation to changes in larger scale atmospheric temperature, pressure and wind profiles of the southern African region and adjacent oceans.},
author = {Malherbe, Johan and Engelbrecht, F A and Landman, W A},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-012-1635-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Atmospheric model,Climate change,Indian Ocean,Landfall,Southern Africa,Tropical cyclone},
month = {jun},
number = {11-12},
pages = {2867--2886},
title = {{Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the Southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007{\%}2Fs00382-012-1635-2.pdf http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1635-2},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2016GL067841,
abstract = {Abstract In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of trends in the extremes during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) months (June to September) at different temporal and spatial scales. Our goal is to identify and quantify spatiotemporal patterns and trends that have emerged during the recent decades and may be associated with changing climatic conditions. Our analysis primarily relies on quantile regression that avoids making any subjective choices on spatial, temporal, or intensity pattern of extreme rainfall events. Our analysis divides the Indian monsoon region into climatic compartments that show different and partly opposing trends. These include strong trends toward intensified droughts in Northwest India, parts of Peninsular India, and Myanmar; in contrast, parts of Pakistan, Northwest Himalaya, and Central India show increased extreme daily rain intensity leading to higher flood vulnerability. Our analysis helps explain previously contradicting results of trends in average ISM rainfall.},
author = {Malik, Nishant and Bookhagen, Bodo and Mucha, Peter J},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL067841},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Indian summer monsoon,climate change,droughts,extreme events,floods,quantile regression},
number = {4},
pages = {1710--1717},
title = {{Spatiotemporal patterns and trends of Indian monsoonal rainfall extremes}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016GL067841},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Mallakpour2015,
abstract = {Climate models predict an increase in intense rainfall events due to a warmer atmosphere retaining more moisture. This study looks at observations from the central USA and reports that there has been an increase in the frequency of flooding, but little evidence for larger flood peaks.},
author = {Mallakpour, Iman and Villarini, Gabriele},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2516},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Hydrology,change impacts},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {250--254},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The changing nature of flooding across the central United States}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2516},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Mallya2016,
abstract = {Drought characteristics for the Indian monsoon region are analyzed using two different datasets and standard precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Gaussian mixture model-based drought index (GMM-DI), and hidden Markov model-based drought index (HMM-DI) for the period 1901–2004. Drought trends and variability were analyzed for three epochs: 1901–1935, 1936–1971 and 1972–2004. Irrespective of the dataset and methodology used, the results indicate an increasing trend in drought severity and frequency during the recent decades (1972–2004). Droughts are becoming more regional and are showing a general shift to the agriculturally important coastal south-India, central Maharashtra, and Indo-Gangetic plains indicating higher food security and socioeconomic vulnerability in the region.},
author = {Mallya, Ganeshchandra and Mishra, Vimal and Niyogi, Dev and Tripathi, Shivam and Govindaraju, Rao S},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.002},
file = {::},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Drought index,Drought vulnerability,Gaussian mixture model,Hidden Markov model,Indian monsoon,Standard precipitation index,Uncertainty analysis},
month = {jun},
pages = {43--68},
title = {{Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300578 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094715300578},
volume = {12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Mandapaka2018,
author = {Mandapaka, Pradeep V. and Lo, Edmond Y.M.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5724},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
number = {14},
pages = {5231--5244},
title = {{Assessment of future changes in Southeast Asian precipitation using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections data set}},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mangini2018,
author = {Mangini, W and Viglione, A and Hall, J and Hundecha, Y and Ceola, S and Montanari, A and Rogger, M and Salinas, J L and Borz{\`{i}}, I and Parajka, J},
doi = {10.1080/02626667.2018.1444766},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
number = {4},
pages = {493--512},
title = {{Detection of trends in magnitude and frequency of flood peaks across Europe}},
volume = {63},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mann2017a,
abstract = {The conventional approach to detecting and attributing climate change impacts on extreme weather events is generally based on frequentist statistical inference wherein a null hypothesis of no influence is assumed, and the alternative hypothesis of an influence is accepted only when the null hypothesis can be rejected at a sufficiently high (e.g., 95{\%} or “p = 0.05”) level of confidence. Using a simple conceptual model for the occurrence of extreme weather events, we show that if the objective is to minimize forecast error, an alternative approach wherein likelihoods of impact are continually updated as data become available is preferable. Using a simple “proof-of-concept,” we show that such an approach will, under rather general assumptions, yield more accurate forecasts. We also argue that such an approach will better serve society, in providing a more effective means to alert decision-makers to potential and unfolding harms and avoid opportunity costs. In short, a Bayesian approach is preferable, both empirically and ethically.},
author = {Mann, Michael E. and Lloyd, Elisabeth A. and Oreskes, Naomi},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2048-3},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {sep},
number = {2},
pages = {131--142},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach}},
volume = {144},
year = {2017}
}
@misc{Manning2019,
abstract = {The propagation of drought from meteorological drought to soil moisture drought can be accelerated by high temperatures during dry periods. The occurrence of extremely long-duration dry periods in combination with extremely high temperatures may drive larger soil moisture deficits than either extreme occurring alone, and lead to severe impacts. In this study, we propose a framework to both characterise long-duration meteorological droughts that co-occur with extremely high temperatures and quantify their probability. We term these events as long-duration, dry and hot (DH) events and characterise them by their duration (D) and magnitude (M). D is defined as the consecutive number of days with precipitation below 1 mm, while M is the maximum daily maximum temperature during an event. A copula-based approach is then employed to estimate the probability of DH events. The framework is applied to Europe during the summer months of June, July and August. We also assess the change in probability that has occurred over the historical period 1950-2013 and find an increased probability of DH events throughout Europe where rising temperatures are found to be the main driver of this change. Dry periods are becoming hotter, leading to an increase in the occurrence of long-duration dry periods with extremely high temperatures. Some parts of Europe also show an increased probability of long-duration events although the relative change is not as strong as that seen with temperature. The results point to a predominant thermodynamic response of DH events to global warming and reaffirm previous research that soil moisture drought events are setting in faster and becoming more severe due to a change in the contributing meteorological hazards. It is hoped that the framework applied here will provide a starting point for further analysis of DH events in other locations and for the assessment of climate models.},
author = {Manning, Colin and Widmann, Martin and Bevacqua, Emanuele and {Van Loon}, Anne F. and Maraun, Douglas and Vrac, Mathieu},
booktitle = {Environmental Research Letters},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab23bf},
issn = {17489326},
month = {aug},
number = {9},
pages = {094006},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Increased probability of compound long-duration dry and hot events in Europe during summer (1950–2013)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab23bf},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Manta2018,
author = {Manta, G. and Mello, S. and Trinchin, R. and Badagian, J. and Barreiro, M.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081070},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {12449--12456},
title = {{The 2017 Record Marine Heatwave in the Southwestern Atlantic Shelf}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081070},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Maraun2013,
author = {Maraun, Douglas},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014004},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {014004},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge?}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014004},
volume = {8},
year = {2013}
}
@article{https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000259,
abstract = {Abstract VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. In this paper, we present the key ingredients of this framework. VALUE's main approach to validation is user- focused: starting from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models? The framework will be the basis for a comprehensive community-open downscaling intercomparison study, but is intended also to provide general guidance for other validation studies.},
author = {Maraun, Douglas and Widmann, Martin and Guti{\'{e}}rrez, Jos{\'{e}} M and Kotlarski, Sven and Chandler, Richard E and Hertig, Elke and Wibig, Joanna and Huth, Radan and Wilcke, Renate A.I.},
doi = {10.1002/2014EF000259},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {Bias Correction,Downscaling,Dynamical Downscaling,Regional Climate Modelling,Statistical Downscaling,Validation},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--14},
title = {{VALUE: A framework to validate downscaling approaches for climate change studies}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014EF000259 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014EF000259},
volume = {3},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Marcos2019,
abstract = {Abstract The dependence between extreme storm surges and wind waves is assessed statistically along the global coasts using the outputs of two numerical models consistently forced with the same atmospheric fields. We show that 55{\%} of the world coastlines face compound storm surge wave extremes. Hence, for a given level of probability, neglecting these dependencies leads to underestimating extreme coastal water levels. Dependencies are dominant in midlatitudes and are likely underestimated in the tropics due to limited representation of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, we show that in half of the areas with dependence, the estimated probability of occurrence of coastal extreme water levels increases significantly when it is accounted for. Translated in terms of return periods, this means that along 30{\%} of global coastlines, extreme water levels expected at most once in a century without considering dependence between storm surges and waves become a 1 in 50-year event.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2019GL082599},
author = {Marcos, Marta and Rohmer, J{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Vousdoukas, Michalis Ioannis and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and {Le Cozannet}, Gon{\'{e}}ri and Amores, Angel},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL082599},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {coastal flooding,compound events,sea level extremes,storm surges,wind waves},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {4356--4364},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Increased Extreme Coastal Water Levels Due to the Combined Action of Storm Surges and Wind Waves}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082599},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Mardones2020a,
abstract = {The freezing level in the free troposphere often intercepts the terrain of the world's major mountain ranges, creating a rain–snow limit. In this work, we use the free tropospheric height of the 0 °C isotherm (H0) as a proxy of both levels and study its distribution along the western slope of the subtropical Andes (30°–38° S) in present climate and during the rest of the 21st century. This portion of the Andes corresponds to central Chile, a highly populated region where warm winter storms have produced devastating landslides and widespread flooding in the recent past. Our analysis is based on the frequency distribution of H0 derived from radiosonde and surface observations, atmospheric reanalysis and climate simulations. The future projections primarily employ a scenario of heavy greenhouse gasses emissions (RCP8.5), but we also examine the more benign RCP4.5 scenario. The current H0 distribution along the central Chile coast shows a gradual decrease southward, with mean heights close to 2600 m ASL (above sea level) at 30 °C S to 2000 m ASL at 38° S for days with precipitation, about 800 m lower than during dry days. The mean value under wet conditions toward the end of the century (under RCP8.5) is close to, or higher than, the upper quartile of the H0 distribution in the current climate. More worrisome, H0 values that currently occur only 5{\%} of the time will be exceeded in about a quarter of the rainy days by the end of the century. Under RCP8.5, even moderate daily precipitation can increase river flow to levels that are considered hazardous for central Chile.},
author = {Mardones, Piero and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}} D.},
doi = {10.3390/atmos11111259},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1259},
title = {{Future Changes in the Free Tropospheric Freezing Level and Rain–Snow Limit: The Case of Central Chile}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/11/1259},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Marelle2018,
abstract = {Global warming is known to substantially increase extreme daily precipitation, but there has been little focus on changes to the seasonal timing of these extreme events. We investigate this question using global and regional climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment, in 1871–1900, 1976–2005, and 2071–2100 for an extreme future emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, 8.5 W/m2). Models reproduce the observed seasonal timing and indicate very little seasonality changes during the past hundred years. However, by the end of the 21st century, extreme precipitation could substantially shift later in the year, in most regions from summer and early fall toward fall and winter. This projected shift is not regionally homogeneous, and, among analyzed regions, is strongest in Northern Europe and Northeastern America (+12 and +17 days, respectively), although local changes of more than a month are also possible.},
author = {Marelle, Louis and Myhre, Gunnar and Hodnebrog, {\O}ivind and Sillmann, Jana and Samset, Bj{\o}rn Hallvard},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079567},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,extreme precipitation,seasonality},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {11352-- 11360},
title = {{The Changing Seasonality of Extreme Daily Precipitation}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079567},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{10.3389/feart.2018.00228,
abstract = {This paper shows recent progress in our understanding of climate variability and trends in the Amazon region, and how these interact with land use change. The review includes an overview of up-to-date information on climate and hydrological variability, and on warming trends in Amazonia, which reached 0.6-0.7 °C over the last 40 years, with 2016 as the warmest year since at least 1950 (0.9 °C +0.3°C). We focus on local and remote drivers of climate variability and change. We review the impacts of these drivers on the length of dry season, the role of the forest in climate and carbon cycles, the resilience of the forest, the risk of fires and biomass burning, and the potential “die back” of the Amazon forests if surpassing a “tipping point”. The role of the Amazon in moisture recycling and transport is also investigated, and a review of model development for climate change projections in the region is included. 
In sum, future sustainability of the Amazonian forests and its many services requires management strategies that consider the likelihood of multi-year droughts superimposed on a continued warming trend. Science has assembled enough knowledge to underline the global and regional importance of an intact Amazon region that can support policymaking and to keep this sensitive ecosystem functioning. This major challenge requires substantial resources and strategic cross-national planning, and a unique blend of expertise and capacities established in Amazon countries and from international collaboration. This also highlights the role of deforestation control in in support of policy for mitigation options as established in the Paris Agreement of 2015. 
},
author = {Marengo, Jose A and Souza, Carlos M and Thonicke, Kirsten and Burton, Chantelle and Halladay, Kate and Betts, Richard A and Alves, Lincoln M and Soares, Wagner R},
doi = {10.3389/feart.2018.00228},
issn = {2296-6463},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
pages = {228},
title = {{Changes in Climate and Land Use Over the Amazon Region: Current and Future Variability and Trends}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2018.00228},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Marengo2016,
abstract = {This paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods. The review includes a history of droughts and floods in the past, in the present and some discussions on future extremes in the context of climate change and its impacts on the Amazon region. Several extreme hydrological events, some of them characterized as ‘once in a century', have been reported in the Amazon region during the last decade. While abundant rainfall in various sectors of the basin has determined extreme floods along the river's main stem in 1953, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2012–2015, deficient rainfall in 1912, 1926, 1963, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 has caused anomalously low river levels, and an increase in the risk and number of fires in the region, with consequences for humans. This is consistent with changes in the variability of the hydrometeorology of the basin and suggests that extreme hydrological events have been more frequent in the last two decades. Some of these intense/reduced rainfalls and subsequent floods/droughts were associated (but not exclusively) with La Ni{\~{n}}a/El Ni{\~{n}}o events. In addition, moisture transport anomalies from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia, and from northern to southern Amazonia alter the water cycle in the region year-to-year. We also assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades. In the context of the future climate change, studies show a large range of uncertainty, but suggest that drought might intensify through the 21st century.},
author = {Marengo, J. A. and Espinoza, J. C.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4420},
isbn = {1097-0088},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1033--1050},
pmid = {1284880},
title = {{Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4420},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Marengo2016a,
abstract = {In the Brazilian Pantanal, hydrometeorological conditions exhibit a large interannual variability. This variability includes the seasonality of floods and droughts which can be related to land surface processes and to El Ni{\~{n}}o/La Ni{\~{n}}a. Based on regional climate change projections derived from the Eta-HadGEM2 ES models with 20 km latitude-longitude resolution for the RCP8.5 for 2071-2100, it is expected that there will be an annual mean warming of up to or above 5-7°C and a 30{\%} reduction in rainfall by the end of the 21st century. As a consequence of higher temperatures and reduced rainfall, an increased water deficit would be expected, particularly in the central and eastern parts of the basin during spring and summer, which could affect the pulse of the Paraguay River. While the changes projected by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES are consistent with the changes produced by the CMIP5 models for the same scenario and time slice, we can affirm that changes in the hydrology of the Pantanal are uncertain, because in a comparison of CMIP5 and Eta-HadGEM2 ES model projections, some show increases in rainfall and in the discharges of the Paraguay Basin, while others show reductions.},
author = {Marengo, JA and Alves, LM and Torres, RR},
doi = {10.3354/cr01324},
issn = {0936-577X},
journal = {Climate Research},
month = {may},
number = {2-3},
pages = {201--213},
title = {{Regional climate change scenarios in the Brazilian Pantanal watershed}},
url = {http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v68/n2-3/p201-213/},
volume = {68},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Marengo2015,
abstract = {The focus of this study is to investigate the risk of aridification in$\backslash$nthe semiarid lands of Northeast Brazil, using a variety of observational$\backslash$ninformation and climate change projections for the future, by means of$\backslash$naridity indices. We use the Budyko and United Nations aridity indices to$\backslash$nassess the extent of areas with semi-arid and arid conditions in the$\backslash$npresent, and for the future out to 2100. Climate projections are derived$\backslash$nfrom the downscaling of the HadCM3 model for the A1B scenario using the$\backslash$nEta regional model with horizontal resolution of 40 km. Consistent with$\backslash$nglobal climate model projections from IPCC AR5, regional climate change$\backslash$nprojections suggest an increase in dryness in the region, with rainfall$\backslash$nreductions, temperature increases and water deficits and longer dry$\backslash$nspells, leading to drought and arid conditions expected to prevail by$\backslash$nthe second half of the 21th century. The area with arid conditions is$\backslash$nprojected to grow to cover areas currently with dry sub humid$\backslash$nconditions, and become larger by 2100. This increase in aridity,$\backslash$ncombined with land degradation may increase the risk of desertification.},
author = {Marengo, Jose A. and Bernasconi, Mauro},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1310-1},
isbn = {0165-0009},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {mar},
number = {1-2},
pages = {103--115},
title = {{Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1310-1},
volume = {129},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Marengo2013,
abstract = {The present study focuses on the impacts of extreme drought and flooding situations in Amazonia, using level/discharge data from some rivers in the Amazon region as indicators of impacts. The last 10 years have featured various " once in a century " droughts and floods in the Amazon basin, which have affected human and natural systems in the region. We assess a history of such hazards based on river data, and discuss some of the observed impacts in terms of vulnerability of human and natural systems, as well as some of adaptation strategies implemented by regional and local governments to cope with them. A critical perspective of mitigation of drought and flood policies in Amazonia suggests that they have been mostly ineffective in reducing vulnerability for the majority of the population, constituting, perhaps, exam-ples of maladaptation via the undermining of resilience.},
author = {Marengo, Jose A. and Borma, Laura S. and Rodriguez, Daniel A. and Pinho, Patr{\'{i}}cia and Soares, Wagner R. and Alves, Lincoln M.},
doi = {10.4236/ajcc.2013.22009},
issn = {2167-9495},
journal = {American Journal of Climate Change},
number = {2},
pages = {87--96},
title = {{Recent Extremes of Drought and Flooding in Amazonia: Vulnerabilities and Human Adaptation}},
url = {http://www.scirp.org/journal/doi.aspx?DOI=10.4236/ajcc.2013.22009},
volume = {2},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Mariotti2011,
author = {Mariotti, L. and Coppola, E. and Sylla, M. B. and Giorgi, F. and Piani, C.},
doi = {10.1029/2010JD015068},
issn = {0148-0227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {aug},
number = {D15},
pages = {D15111},
title = {{Regional climate model simulation of projected 21st century climate change over an all-Africa domain: Comparison analysis of nested and driving model results}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2010JD015068},
volume = {116},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Mariotti2014,
author = {Mariotti, L. and Diallo, I. and Coppola, E. and Giorgi, F.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1097-0},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {53--65},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1097-0},
volume = {125},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Marjanac2018,
annote = {doi: 10.1080/02646811.2018.1451020},
author = {Marjanac, Sophie and Patton, Lindene},
doi = {10.1080/02646811.2018.1451020},
issn = {0264-6811},
journal = {Journal of Energy {\&} Natural Resources Law},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {265--298},
publisher = {Routledge},
title = {{Extreme weather event attribution science and climate change litigation: an essential step in the causal chain?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02646811.2018.1451020 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02646811.2018.1451020},
volume = {36},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Markon2018,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Markon, Carl and Gray, Stephen and Berman, Matthew and Eerkes-Medrano, Laura and Hennessy, Thomas and Huntington, Henry P and Littell, Jeremy and McCammon, Molly and Thoman, Richard and Trainor, Sarah F.},
booktitle = {Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II},
doi = {10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH26},
editor = {Reidmiller, D.R. and Avery, C.W. and Easterling, D.R. and Kunkel, K.E. and Lewis, K.L.M. and Maycock, T.K. and Stewart, B.C.},
pages = {1185--1241},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Alaska}},
url = {https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/26/},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Marotzke2017,
author = {Marotzke, Jochem and Jakob, Christian and Bony, Sandrine and Dirmeyer, Paul A and O'Gorman, Paul A and Hawkins, Ed and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah and Qu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}, Corinne Le and Nowicki, Sophie and Paulavets, Katsia and Seneviratne, Sonia I and Stevens, Bjorn and Tuma, Matthias},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3206},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {89--91},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.},
title = {{Climate research must sharpen its view}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3206 http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3206},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@techreport{Marra2017,
author = {Marra, John J and Kruk, Michael C},
pages = {93},
publisher = {National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)},
title = {{State of Environmental Conditions in Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands under a Changing Climate: 2017}},
url = {https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/publications/state{\_}of{\_}the{\_}environment{\_}2017{\_}hawaii-usapi{\_}noaa-nesdis-ncei{\_}oct2017.pdf},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Marsooli2019,
abstract = {One of the most destructive natural hazards, tropical cyclone (TC)–induced coastal flooding, will worsen under climate change. Here we conduct climatology–hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and TC climatology change (under RCP 8.5) on late 21st century flood hazards at the county level along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. We find that, under the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change, the historical 100-year flood level would occur annually in New England and mid-Atlantic regions and every 1–30 years in southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions in the late 21st century. The relative effect of TC climatology change increases continuously from New England, mid-Atlantic, southeast Atlantic, to the Gulf of Mexico, and the effect of TC climatology change is likely to be larger than the effect of SLR for over 40{\%} of coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico.},
author = {Marsooli, Reza and Lin, Ning and Emanuel, Kerry and Feng, Kairui},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Climate and Earth system modelling,Natural hazards,Physical oceanography},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {3785},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11755-z},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{1748-9326-13-4-044002,
abstract = {Extra-tropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact on landfall due to strong surface winds and coastal storm surges. Climate model integrations have predicted a future increase in the frequency of, and potential damage from, European windstorms and yet these integrations cannot properly represent localised jets, such as sting jets, that may significantly enhance damage. Here we present the first prediction of how the climatology of sting-jet-containing cyclones will change in a future warmer climate, considering the North Atlantic and Europe. A proven sting-jet precursor diagnostic is applied to 13 year present-day and future ({\~{}}2100) climate integrations from the Met Office Unified Model in its Global Atmosphere 3.0 configuration. The present-day climate results are consistent with previously-published results from a reanalysis dataset (with around 32{\%} of cyclones exhibiting the sing-jet precursor), lending credibility to the analysis of the future-climate integration. The proportion of cyclones exhibiting the sting-jet precursor in the future-climate integration increases to 45{\%}. Furthermore, while the proportion of explosively-deepening storms increases only slightly in the future climate, the proportion of those storms with the sting-jet precursor increases by 60{\%}. The European resolved-wind risk associated with explosively-deepening storms containing a sting-jet precursor increases substantially in the future climate; in reality this wind risk is likely to be further enhanced by the release of localised moist instability, unresolved by typical climate models.},
author = {Mart{\'{i}}nez-Alvarado, Oscar and Gray, Suzanne L. and Hart, Neil C G and Clark, Peter A. and Hodges, Kevin and Roberts, Malcolm J.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaae3a},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate modeling,climatology,extra-tropical cyclones,meteorological bombs,sting jets,warmer climate,wind risk},
number = {4},
pages = {044002},
title = {{Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=4/a=044002?key=crossref.97c5433012cc0f5f1dbf47625c96edf6},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Martinez-Austria2016,
abstract = {Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.},
author = {Mart{\'{i}}nez-Austria, Polioptro F. and Bandala, Erick R. and Pati{\~{n}}o-G{\'{o}}mez, Carlos},
doi = {10.1016/j.pce.2015.07.005},
issn = {14747065},
journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate extremes,Heat waves,Temperature trends},
month = {feb},
pages = {20--26},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1474706515000789},
volume = {91},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Martin2016,
abstract = {The societal risks of water scarcity and water-quality impairment have received considerable attention, evidenced by recent analyses of these topics by the 2030 Water Resources Group, the United Nations and the World Economic Forum. What are the effects of fire on the predicted water scarcity and declines in water quality? Drinking water supplies for humans, the emphasis of this exploration, are derived from several land cover types, including forests, grasslands and peatlands, which are vulnerable to fire. In the last two decades, fires have affected the water supply catchments of Denver (CO) and other southwestern US cities, and four major Australian cities including Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide and Melbourne. In the same time period, several, though not all, national, regional and global water assessments have included fire in evaluations of the risks that affect water supplies. The objective of this discussion is to explore the nexus of fire, water and society with the hope that a more explicit understanding of fire effects on water supplies will encourage the incorporation of fire into future assessments of water supplies, into the pyrogeography conceptual framework and into planning efforts directed at water resiliency.},
author = {Martin, Deborah A.},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2015.0172},
issn = {0962-8436},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
keywords = {Reservoirs,Water resiliency,Water supplies},
month = {jun},
number = {1696},
pages = {20150172},
publisher = {Royal Society of London},
title = {{At the nexus of fire, water and society}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2015.0172},
volume = {371},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Martinelli2020,
author = {Martinelli, Alessandra and Kolokotsa, Dionysia-Denia and Fiorito, Francesco},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8060079},
journal = {Climate},
number = {6},
pages = {79},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Urban heat island in Mediterranean coastal cities: The case of Bari (Italy)}},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Martinez2014,
abstract = {The La Plata River basin (LPRB) is the second largest basin of South America and extends over a highly populated and socioeconomically active region. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of sources of moisture for the LPRB are quantified using an extended version of the Dynamic Recycling Model. Approximately 63{\%} of mean annual precipitation over the LPRB comes from South America, including 23{\%} from local LPRB sources and 20{\%} from the southern Amazon. The remaining 37{\%} comes mostly from the southern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Oceans. The LPRB depends largely on external sources during the dry winter season, when local evaporation reaches a minimum and moisture outflow increases. Variations in the transport of moisture from the Amazon to the LPRB depend more on variations of the atmospheric circulation than on evaporation, at both the monthly and daily time scale. In particular, weak atmospheric flow allows the accumulation of moisture over the Amazon basin, followed by an above-normal release of moisture downwind when the atmospheric flow strengthens again. Water vapor transport with these characteristics was observed for 20{\%} of the days of the summer season during the 1980–2012 period, leading to higher-than-average convergence of moisture of terrestrial origin over the LPRB. During the positive (negative) phase of the El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), more (less) moisture from Amazonian evaporation reaches the LPRB. The Amazonian contribution to the LPRB is reduced (increased) during the positive (negative) phase of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), when surface pressure over southern South America is above (below) normal.},
author = {Martinez, J Alejandro and Dominguez, Francina},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00022.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {17},
pages = {6737--6753},
title = {{Sources of Atmospheric Moisture for the La Plata River Basin}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00022.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Martius2016,
abstract = {Abstract The concomitant occurrence of extreme precipitation and winds can have severe impacts. Here this concomitant occurrence is quantified globally using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. A logistic regression model is used to determine significant changes in the odds of precipitation extremes given a wind extreme that occurs on the same day, the day before, or the day after. High percentages of cooccurring wind and precipitation extremes are found in coastal regions and in areas with frequent tropical cyclones, with maxima of more than 50{\%} of concomitant events. Strong regional-scale variations in this percentage are related to the interaction of weather systems with topography resulting in F{\"{o}}hn winds, gap winds, and orographic drying and the structure and tracks of extratropical and tropical cyclones. The percentage of concomitant events increases substantially if spatial shifts by one grid point are taken into account. Such spatially shifted but cooccurring events are important in insurance applications.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/2016GL070017},
author = {Martius, Olivia and Pfahl, Stephan and Chevalier, Cl{\'{e}}ment},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL070017},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {compound extremes,cyclones,extreme precipitation,extreme weather,extreme wind},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {7709--7717},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{A global quantification of compound precipitation and wind extremes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070017},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Marty2017a,
abstract = {Abstract. This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999–2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2°C target) and for three future time periods (2020–2049, 2045–2074, 2070–2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50{\%} even for elevations above 3000m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500–800 or 700–1000m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500m and only 0–2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30{\%} instead of 70{\%}).},
author = {Marty, Christoph and Schl{\"{o}}gl, Sebastian and Bavay, Mathias and Lehning, Michael},
doi = {10.5194/tc-11-517-2017},
isbn = {1994-0416},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {517--529},
title = {{How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps}},
url = {https://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/517/2017/},
volume = {11},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Marty2017,
abstract = {Snow plays a critical role in the water cycle of many mountain regions and heavily populated areas downstream. In this study, changes of snow water equivalent (SWE) time series from long-term stations in five Alpine countries are analyzed. The sites are located between 500 and 3000 m above mean sea level, and the analysis is mainly based on measurement series from 1 February (winter) and 1 April (spring). The investigation was performed over different time periods, including the last six decades. The large majority of the SWE time series demonstrate a reduction in snow mass, which is more pronounced for spring than for winter. The observed SWE decrease is independent of latitude or longitude, despite the different climate regions in the Alpine domain. In contrast to measurement series from other mountain ranges, even the highest sites revealed a decline in spring SWE. A comparison with a 100-yr mass balance series from a glacier in the central Alps demonstrates that the peak SWEs have been on a record-low level since around the beginning of the twenty-first century at high Alpine sites. In the long term, clearly increasing temperatures and a coincident weak reduction in precipitation are the main drivers for the pronounced snow mass loss in the past.},
author = {Marty, Christoph and Tilg, Anna-Maria and Jonas, Tobias},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-16-0188.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1021--1031},
title = {{Recent Evidence of Large-Scale Receding Snow Water Equivalents in the European Alps}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0188.1},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Marx2014,
abstract = {Australia, the last continent to undergo industrial development, is an ideal environment in which to quantify the magnitude of human-induced environmental change during the Anthropocene because its entire agricultural and industrial history has occurred within this period. Analysis of an alpine peat mire showed that rapid industrial and agricultural development (both pastoral and cropping) over the past 200 years has resulted in significant environmental change in Australia. Beginning in the 1880s, rates of wind erosion and metal enrichment were up to 10 and 30 times that of background natural conditions, respectively. Increased dust deposition and an expansion in dust source areas were found to map the progression of European farming across the continent, while dust deposition pulses in the mire matched known land degradation events. After 1990 dust deposition decreased, returning to pre-1880 rates. This was attributed to three factors: net soil loss following more than a century of agricultural activity, increased environmental awareness and soil conservation, and changing windiness. Metal enrichment in the mire reached approximately 2 times natural background accumulation rates by the 1980s as Australia's mining industry expanded. However, metal enrichment continued to increase after the 1980s reaching an average of {\~{}}5 times background rates by 2006 and reflecting increased mineral resource development in Australia. Collectively, the results show that changes to Australia's geochemical and sedimentary systems, as a result of agricultural and industrial development, have profoundly changed the Australian environment during the past two centuries. Key Points The 2.5 up increase in wind erosion since agricultural development Average of 5 times increase in metal enrichment since 1880 Two phases of the Anthropocene are identifiable {\textcopyright}2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Marx, Samuel K. and McGowan, Hamish A. and Kamber, Balz S. and Knight, Jon M. and Denholm, John and Zawadzki, Atun},
doi = {10.1002/2013JF002948},
issn = {21699011},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface},
keywords = {agriculture metal pollution,biogeochemical cycles,environmental change,human impacts,soil loss,wind erosion},
number = {1},
pages = {45--61},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Unprecedented wind erosion and perturbation of surface geochemistry marks the Anthropocene in Australia}},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Marzeion2020,
abstract = {Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections.},
author = {Marzeion, Ben and Hock, Regine and Anderson, Brian and Bliss, Andrew and Champollion, Nicolas and Fujita, Koji and Huss, Matthias and Immerzeel, Walter W. and Kraaijenbrink, Philip and Malles, Jan‐Hendrik and Maussion, Fabien and Radi{\'{c}}, Valentina and Rounce, David R. and Sakai, Akiko and Shannon, Sarah and Wal, Roderik and Zekollari, Harry},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001470},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {glacier,modeling,projections,sea level rise,uncertainties},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {e2019EF001470},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Inc},
title = {{Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019EF001470},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Masiokas2020,
abstract = {The Andes Cordillera contains the most diverse cryosphere on Earth, including extensive areas covered by seasonal snow, numerous tropical and extratropical glaciers, and many mountain permafrost landforms. Here, we review some recent advances in the study of the main components of the cryosphere in the Andes, and discuss the changes observed in the seasonal snow and permanent ice masses of this region over the past decades. The open access and increasing availability of remote sensing products has produced a substantial improvement in our understanding of the current state and recent changes of the Andean cryosphere, allowing an unprecedented detail in their identification and monitoring at local and regional scales. Analyses of snow cover maps has allowed the identification of seasonal patterns and long term trends in snow accumulation for most of the Andes, with some sectors in central Chile and central-western Argentina showing a clear decline in snowfall and snow persistence since 2010. This recent shortage of mountain snow has caused an extended, severe drought that is unprecedented in the hydrological and climatological records from this region. Together with data from global glacier inventories, detailed inventories at local/regional scales are now also freely available, providing important new information for glaciological, hydrological, and climatological assessments in different sectors of the Andes. Numerous studies largely based on field measurements and/or remote sensing techniques have documented the recent glacier shrinkage throughout the Andes. This observed ice mass loss has put Andean glaciers among the highest contributors to sea level rise per unit area. Other recent studies have focused on rock glaciers, showing that in extensive semi-arid sectors of the Andes these mountain permafrost features contain large reserves of freshwater and may play a crucial role as future climate becomes warmer and drier in this region. Many relevant issues remain to be investigated, however, including an improved estimation of ice volumes at local scales, and detailed assessments of the hydrological significance of the different components of the cryosphere in Andean river basins. The impacts of future climate changes on the Andean cryosphere also need to be studied in more detail, considering the contrasting climatic scenarios projected for each region. The sustained work of various monitoring programs in the different Andean countries is promising and will provide much needed field observations to validate and improve the analyses made from remote sensors and modeling techniques. In this sense, the development of a well-coordinated network of high-elevation hydro-meteorological stations appears as a much needed priority to complement and improve the many glaciological and hydro-climatological assessments that are being conducted across the Andes.},
author = {Masiokas, M. H. and Rabatel, A. and Rivera, A. and Ruiz, L. and Pitte, P. and Ceballos, J. L. and Barcaza, G. and Soruco, A. and Bown, F. and Berthier, E. and Dussaillant, I. and MacDonell, S.},
doi = {10.3389/feart.2020.00099},
issn = {2296-6463},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
keywords = {Andes Cordillera,glaciers,mountain permafrost,seasonal snow,southern Andes,tropical Andes},
month = {jun},
pages = {99},
title = {{A Review of the Current State and Recent Changes of the Andean Cryosphere}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2020.00099/full},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Mason2016a,
abstract = {The effects of climate change on north temperate freshwater ecosystems include increasing water temperatures and decreasing ice cover. Here we compare those trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes at three spatial scales to evaluate how warming varies across the surface of these massive inland water bodies. We compiled seasonal ice cover duration (1973–2013) and lake summer surface water temperatures (LSSWT; 1994–2013), and analyzed spatial patterns and trends at lake-wide, lake sub-basin, and fine spatial scales and compared those to reported lake- and basin-wide trends. At the lake-wide scale we found declining ice duration and warming LSSWT patterns consistent with previous studies. At the lake sub-basin scale, our statistical models identified distinct warming trends within each lake that included significant breakpoints in ice duration for 13 sub-basins, consistent linear declines in 11 sub-basins, and no trends in 4 sub-basins. At the finest scale, we found that the northern- and eastern-most portions of each Great Lake, especially in nearshore areas, have experienced faster rates of LSSWT warming and shortening ice duration than those previously reported from trends at the lake scale. We conclude that lake-level analyses mask significant spatial and temporal variation in warming patterns within the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recognizing spatial variability in rates of change can inform both mechanistic modeling of ecosystem responses and planning for long-term management of these large freshwater ecosystems.},
author = {Mason, Lacey A. and Riseng, Catherine M. and Gronewold, Andrew D. and Rutherford, Edward S. and Wang, Jia and Clites, Anne and Smith, Sigrid D.P. and McIntyre, Peter B.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric Sciences,Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts},
month = {sep},
number = {1-2},
pages = {71--83},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes}},
url = {http://greatlakesrestoration.us},
volume = {138},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Massom2010a,
abstract = {Although Antarctic sea ice is undergoing a slight increase in overall extent, major regional changes are occurring in its spatio-temporal characteristics (most notably in sea ice seasonality). Biologically significant aspects of Antarctic sea ice are evaluated, emphasising the importance of scale and thermodynamics versus dynamics. Changing sea ice coverage is having major direct and indirect though regionally-dependent effects on ecosystem structure and function, with the most dramatic known effects to date occurring in the West Antarctic Peninsula region. There is mounting evidence that loss of sea ice has affected multiple levels of the marine food web in a complex fashion and has triggered cascading effects. Impacts on primary production, Antarctic krill, fish, marine mammals and birds are assessed, and are both negative and positive. The review includes recent analysis of change/variability in polynyas and fast ice, and also highlights the significance of extreme events (which have paradoxical impacts). Possible future scenarios are investigated in the light of the predicted decline in sea ice by 2100 e.g. increased storminess/waviness, numbers of icebergs and snowfall. Our current lack of knowledge on many aspects of sea ice-related change and biological response is emphasised. {\textcopyright} 2010 Elsevier B.V.},
author = {Massom, Robert A. and Stammerjohn, Sharon E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.polar.2010.05.001},
issn = {18739652},
journal = {Polar Science},
keywords = {Antarctic sea ice,Climate change,Ecological impacts,Ice sheet,Icebergs,Ocean},
month = {aug},
number = {2},
pages = {149--186},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Antarctic sea ice change and variability – Physical and ecological implications}},
volume = {4},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Mathis2015,
abstract = {The highly productive fisheries of Alaska are located in seas projected to experience strong global change, including rapid transitions in temperature and ocean acidification-driven changes in pH and other chemical parameters. Many of the marine organisms that are most intensely affected by ocean acidification (OA) contribute substantially to the state's commercial fisheries and traditional subsistence way of life. Prior studies of OA's potential impacts on human communities have focused only on possible direct economic losses from specific scenarios of human dependence on commercial harvests and damages to marine species. However, other economic and social impacts, such as changes in food security or livelihoods, are also likely to result from climate change. This study evaluates patterns of dependence on marine resources within Alaska that could be negatively impacted by OA and current community characteristics to assess the potential risk to the fishery sector from OA. Here, we used a risk assessment framework based on one developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to analyze earth-system global ocean model hindcasts and projections of ocean chemistry, fisheries harvest data, and demographic information. The fisheries examined were: shellfish, salmon and other finfish. The final index incorporates all of these data to compare overall risk among Alaska's federally designated census areas. The analysis showed that regions in southeast and southwest Alaska that are highly reliant on fishery harvests and have relatively lower incomes and employment alternatives likely face the highest risk from OA. Although this study is an intermediate step toward our full understanding, the results presented here show that OA merits consideration in policy planning, as it may represent another challenge to Alaskan communities, some of which are already under acute socio-economic strains.},
author = {Mathis, J.T. and Cooley, S.R. and Lucey, N. and Colt, S. and Ekstrom, J. and Hurst, T. and Hauri, C. and Evans, W. and Cross, J.N. and Feely, R.A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.pocean.2014.07.001},
issn = {00796611},
journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
month = {aug},
pages = {71--91},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Ocean acidification risk assessment for Alaska's fishery sector}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661114001141?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0079661114001141},
volume = {136},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Mathis2015a,
author = {Mathis, Jeremy T. and Cross, Jessica N. and Evans, Wiley and Doney, Scott C.},
doi = {10.5670/oceanog.2015.36},
issn = {10428275},
journal = {Oceanography},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {122--135},
title = {{Ocean Acidification in the Surface Waters of the Pacific–Arctic Boundary Regions}},
url = {https://tos.org/oceanography/article/ocean-acidification-in-the-surface-waters-of-the-pacific-arctic-boundaryreg},
volume = {25},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Matin2017,
author = {Matin, Shafique and Behera, Mukund},
file = {::},
journal = {Current science},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {229--230},
title = {{Alarming rise in aridity in the Ganga river basin, India, in past 3.5 decades}},
url = {https://wwwops.currentscience.ac.in/Volumes/112/02/0229.pdf},
volume = {112},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Matsumoto2019,
abstract = {In a future warming world, a fully dynamical model of Lake Superior projects that the lake will undergo significant physical and biological changes by the middle of the 21st century with important implications for the surrounding region. Projections for the winter include drastically reduced ice and very weak water column stratification. In contrast, the summertime surface warming is projected to begin earlier, last longer, and be more enhanced. In concert, summertime biological production is projected to shift earlier and become larger. These changes have potentially important consequences for stakeholders with interests in shipping, coastal habitability, fishing, water quality, and recreation. Perhaps more fundamentally, the projected changes imply that Lake Superior may change into a different kind of lake with a dramatically weakened dimictic behavior.},
author = {Matsumoto, Katsumi and Tokos, Kathy S. and Rippke, Joseph},
doi = {10.4081/jlimnol.2019.1902},
issn = {17238633},
journal = {Journal of Limnology},
keywords = {Climate projection,Great Lake,Lake Superior,Numerical model},
month = {dec},
number = {3},
pages = {296--309},
publisher = {Page Press Publications},
title = {{Climate projection of lake superior under a future warming scenario}},
volume = {78},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Matthes2015,
abstract = {In the Arctic, climate change manifests with the strongest warming trends on the globe, especially in the cold season. It is under debate if climate extremes change similarly strong. Our study provides detailed regional information about two selected temperature extreme indices in the Arctic, namely warm and cold spells in winter and summer. We analyze their temporal evolution and variability from 1979–2013, based on daily station data and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Calculated trends from both datasets suggest a widespread decrease of cold spells in winter and summer of up to −4 days/decade, with regional patches where trends are statistically significant throughout the Arctic. Winter trends are spatially heterogeneous, the reanalysis also shows small areas with statistically significant increases of cold spells throughout Siberia. Calculated changes in warm spells from both datasets are mostly small throughout the Arctic (less than ±1 day/decade) and statistically not significant. Remarkable exceptions are the Lena river basin in winter with a statistically significant decrease of up to −1.5 days/decade and areas in Scandinavia with statistically significant increases of up to 2.5 days/decade in winter and summer (again from both datasets). From the analysis of spell lengths, we find that there are no shifts from longer to shorter spells or vice versa with time, but long cold spells (events lasting for more than 15 days) disappear almost completely after the year 2000. There is a distinct inter-annual and decadal variability in the spells, which hinders the detection of significant trends for all spell categories in all regions.},
author = {Matthes, Heidrun and Rinke, Annette and Dethloff, Klaus},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114020},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {arctic temperature change,climate extremes,variability of temperature extremes},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {114020},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Recent changes in Arctic temperature extremes: warm and cold spells during winter and summer}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=11/a=114020?key=crossref.943405a086c6db32f307f68ffb159afd},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Matthews2017,
abstract = {In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.},
author = {Matthews, Tom K. R. and Wilby, Robert L. and Murphy, Conor},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1617526114},
isbn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {15},
pages = {3861--3866},
pmid = {28348220},
title = {{Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1617526114},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Matthews2020,
annote = {doi: 10.1080/13683500.2020.1816928},
author = {Matthews, Lindsay and Scott, Daniel and Andrey, Jean and Mahon, Roch{\'{e}} and Trotman, Adrian and Burrowes, Ravidya and Charles, Amanda},
doi = {10.1080/13683500.2020.1816928},
issn = {1368-3500},
journal = {Current Issues in Tourism},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {1576--1594},
publisher = {Routledge},
title = {{Developing climate services for Caribbean tourism: a comparative analysis of climate push and pull influences using climate indices}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1816928 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13683500.2020.1816928},
volume = {24},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Mauree2019,
abstract = {The current climate change is calling for a drastic reduction of energy demand as well as of greenhouse gases. Besides this, cities also need to adapt to face the challenges related to climate change. Cities, with their complex urban texture and fabric, can be represented as a diverse ecosystem that does not have a clear and defined boundary. Multiple software tools that have been developed, in recent years, for assessment of urban climate, building energy demand, the outdoor thermal comfort and the energy systems. In this review, we, however, noted that these tools often address only one or two of these urban planning aspects. There is nonetheless an intricate link between them. For instance, the outdoor comfort assessment has shown that there is a strong link between biometeorology and architecture and urban climate. Additionally, to address the challenges of the energy transition, there will be a convergence of the energy needs in the future with an energy nexus regrouping the energy demand of urban areas. It is also highlighted that the uncertainty related to future climatic data makes urban adaptation and mitigation strategies complex to implement and to design given the lack of a comprehensive framework. We thus conclude by suggesting the need for a holistic interface to take into account this multi-dimensional problem. With the help of such a platform, a positive loop in urban design can be initiated leading to the development of low carbon cities and/or with the use of blue and green infrastructure to have a positive impact on the mitigation and adaptation strategies.},
author = {Mauree, Dasaraden and Naboni, Emanuele and Coccolo, Silvia and Perera, A. T.D. and Nik, Vahid M. and Scartezzini, Jean Louis},
doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.005},
issn = {18790690},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
keywords = {Built environment,Climate adaptation,Energy systems,Integrated assessment,Outdoor comfort,Sustainability,Urban mitigation strategies,Urban modelling tools},
month = {sep},
pages = {733--746},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{A review of assessment methods for the urban environment and its energy sustainability to guarantee climate adaptation of future cities}},
volume = {112},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Mavromatidi2018a,
abstract = {The densely populated cities of continental Mediterranean France, which are prone to erosion, are facing a potentially multi-hazard threat, due to a rise in sea-level that is expected to increase by between 0.07 and 0.12m during the 21st century. The aim of this study is the superimposition of two widely used empirical indexes – the Coastal Sensitivity Index and the Social Vulnerability Index. In this research, the CSI is based on the following 6 parameters: geomorphology, coastal slope, sea-level rise, shoreline changes, mean tidal range and significant wave height, while the SVI used is constructed from 9 parameters: population{\textless}14years old, population over 75years old, women, single parent families, families with more than two children, tenants, average density (inhabitants/km2), unemployed population, population with no education and foreigners. The research was initially conducted on the French Mediterranean coast, where environmental inequality was observed, and led to the selection of 3 areas of interest for a further investigation in finer scale (municipality/d{\'{e}}partement/coastal district scale). It was noted that in certain cases the socio-environmental vulnerability of a municipality (as a whole) differed from the one presented in its coastal district. Thus, the socio-environmental vulnerability of a place is related to the study's scale, and the interest lies in the recognition of the most vulnerable coastal districts of cities, in conjunction with coastal sensitivity, in order to prioritize the efforts for coastal management.},
author = {Mavromatidi, Asimina and Briche, Elodie and Claeys, C{\'{e}}cilia},
doi = {10.1016/j.cities.2017.08.007},
issn = {02642751},
journal = {Cities},
keywords = {Climate change,Coastal sensitivity,GIS,Indices,Mediterranean French cities,Social vulnerability},
month = {feb},
pages = {189--200},
title = {{Mapping and analyzing socio-environmental vulnerability to coastal hazards induced by climate change: An application to coastal Mediterranean cities in France}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264275116307272 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275116307272},
volume = {72},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Maxwell2018,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Maxwell, Keely B. and Julius, Susan Herrod and Grambsch, Anne E. and Kosmal, Ann R. and Larson, Elisabeth and Sonti, Nancy},
booktitle = {Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II},
chapter = {11},
doi = {10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH11},
editor = {Reidmiller, D.R. and Avery, C.W. and Easterling, D.R. and Kunkel, K.E. and Lewis, K.L.M. and Maycock, T.K. and Stewart, B.C.},
pages = {438--478},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities.}},
url = {https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/11/},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mazdiyasni2017,
author = {Mazdiyasni, Omid and AghaKouchak, Amir and Davis, Steven J and Madadgar, Shahrbanou and Mehran, Ali and Ragno, Elisa and Sadegh, Mojtaba and Sengupta, Ashmita and Ghosh, Subimal and Dhanya, C T and Niknejad, Mohsen},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1700066},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {e1700066},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat waves}},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1700066},
volume = {3},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Mbow2019,
author = {Mbow, C. and Rosenzweig, C. and Barioni, L.G. and Benton, T.G. and Herrero, M. and Krishnapillai, M. and Liwenga, E. and Pradhan, P. and Rivera-Ferre, M.G. and Sapkota, T. and Tubiello, F.N. and Xu, Y.},
booktitle = {Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems},
editor = {Shukla, P.R. and Skea, J. and Buendia, E. Calvo and Masson-Delmotte, V. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Zhai, P. and Slade, R. and Connors, S. and van Diemen, R. and Ferrat, M. and Haughey, E. and Luz, S. and Neogi, S. and Pathak, M. and Petzold, J. and Pereira, J. Portugal and Vyas, P. and Huntley, E. and Kissick, K. and Belkacemi, M. and Malley, J.},
pages = {437--550},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Food Security}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5},
year = {2019}
}
@article{McAneney2017,
abstract = {The economic impact of natural disasters on developing economies can be severe with the recovery diverting scarce funds that might otherwise be targeted at development projects and stimulating the need for international aid. In view of the likely sensitivity of low-lying Pacific Islands to anticipated changes in climate, a 122-year record of major flooding depths at the Rarawai Sugar Mill on the Ba River in the northwest of the Fijian Island of Viti Levu is analysed. Reconstructed largely from archived correspondence of the Colonial Sugar Refining Company, the time series comprises simple measurements of height above the Mill floor. It exhibits no statistically significant trends in either frequency or flood heights, once the latter have been adjusted for average relative sea-level rise. This is despite persistent warming of air temperatures as characterized in other studies. There is a strong dependence of frequency (but not magnitude) upon El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, with many more floods in La Ni{\~{n}}a phases. The analysis of this long-term data series illustrates the difficulty of detecting a global climate change signal from hazard data, even given a consistent measurement methodology (cf HURDAT2 record of North Atlantic hurricanes) and warns of the strong dependence of any statistical significance upon choices of start and end dates of the analysis.},
author = {McAneney, John and van den Honert, Robin and Yeo, Stephen},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4989},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {climate change,flood frequency,flood heights,flooding,small island developing states,time series analysis},
pages = {171--178},
title = {{Stationarity of major flood frequencies and heights on the Ba River, Fiji, over a 122-year record}},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{McCrary2019,
abstract = {The NARCCAP RCM–GCM ensemble is used to explore the uncertainty in midcentury projections of snow over North America that arise when multiple RCMs are used to downscale multiple GCMs. Various snow metrics are examined, including snow water equivalent (SWE), snow cover extent (SCE), snow cover duration (SCD), and the timing of the snow season. Simulated biases in baseline snow characteristics are found to be sensitive to the choice of RCM and less influenced by the driving GCM. By midcentury, domain-averaged SCE and SWE are projected to decrease in all months of the year. However, using multiple RCMs to downscale multiple GCMs inflates the uncertainty in future projections of both SCE and SWE, with projections of SWE being more uncertain. Spatially, the RCMs show winter SWE decreasing over most of North America, except north of the Arctic rim, where SWE is projected to increase. SCD is also projected to decrease with both a later start and earlier termination of the snow season. For all metrics considered, the magnitude of the climate change signal varies across the RCMs. The ensemble spread is large over the western United States, where the RCMs disagree on the sign of the change in SWE in some high-elevation regions. Future projections of snow (both magnitude and spatial patterns) are more similar between simulations performed with the same RCM than the simulations driven by the same GCM. This implies that climate change uncertainty is not sufficiently explored in experiments performed with a single RCM driven by multiple GCMs.},
author = {McCrary, Rachel R. and Mearns, Linda O.},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-18-0248.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {2229--2252},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Quantifying and Diagnosing Sources of Uncertainty in Midcentury Changes in North American Snowpack from NARCCAP}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0248.s1. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0248.1},
volume = {20},
year = {2019}
}
@article{McGree2019a,
abstract = {Trends in mean and extreme annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation over the 1951–2015 period were calculated for 57 stations in 20 western Pacific Ocean island countries and territories. The extremes indices are those of the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices. The purpose of the expert team and indices is to promote the use of globally consistent climate indices to highlight variability and trends in climate extremes that are of particular interest to socioeconomic sectors and to help to characterize the climate sensitivity of various sectors. Prior to the calculation of the monthly means and indices, the data underwent quality control and homogeneity assessment. A rise in mean temperature occurred at most stations, in all seasons, and in both halves of the study period. The temperature indices also showed strong warming, which for the majority was strongest in December–February and weakest in June–August. The absolute and percentile-based indices show the greatest warming at the upper end of the distribution. While changes in precipitation were less consistent and trends were generally weak at most locations, declines in both total and extreme precipitation were found in southwestern French Polynesia and the southern subtropics. There was a decrease in moderate- to high-intensity precipitation events, especially those experienced over multiple days, in southwestern French Polynesia from December to February. Strong drying trends have also been identified in the low- to moderate-extreme indices in the June–August and September–November periods. These negative trends contributed to an increase in the magnitude of meteorological drought in both subregions.},
author = {McGree, Simon and Herold, Nicholas and Alexander, Lisa and Schreider, Sergei and Kuleshov, Yuriy and Ene, Elifaleti and Finaulahi, Selu and Inape, Kasis and Mackenzie, Boyd and Malala, Hans and Ngari, Arona and Prakash, Bipendra and Tahani, Lloyd},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0748.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {4919--4941},
title = {{Recent Changes in Mean and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation in the Western Pacific Islands}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0748.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{McGregor2018,
abstract = {Objectives: To provide a primer on the physical characteristics of heat from a biometeorological perspective for those interested in the epidemiology of extreme heat. Study design: A literature search design was used. Methods: A review of the concepts of heat, heat stress and human heat balance was conducted using Web of Sciences, Scopus and PubMed. Results: Heat, as recognised in the field of human biometeorology, is a complex phenomenon resulting from the synergistic effects of air temperature, humidity and ventilation levels, radiation loads and metabolic activity. Heat should therefore not be conflated with high temperatures. A range of empirical, direct and rational heat stress indices have been developed to assess heat stress. Conclusion: The conceptualisation of heat stress is best described with reference to the human heat balance which describes the various avenues for heat gain to and heat loss from the body. Air temperature alone is seldom the reason for heat stress and thus heat-related health effects.},
author = {McGregor, Glenn R. and Vanos, Jennifer K.},
doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2017.11.005},
issn = {14765616},
journal = {Public Health},
keywords = {Epidemiology of extreme heat,Heat strain,Heat stress,Human biometeorology,Human heat balance,Personal heat exposure},
month = {aug},
pages = {138--146},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Heat: a primer for public health researchers}},
volume = {161},
year = {2018}
}
@article{McInnes2016a,
abstract = {The Australian coastal zone encompasses tropical, sub- and extra-tropical climates and accommodates about 80 {\%} of Australia's population. Sea level extremes and their physical impacts in the coastal zone arise from a complex set of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial processes that interact on a range of spatial and temporal scales and will be modified by a changing climate, including sea level rise. This review details significant progress over recent years in understanding the causes of past and projections of future changes in sea level and coastal extremes, yet a number of research questions, knowledge gaps and challenges remain. These include efforts to improve knowledge on past sea level extremes, integrate a wider range of processes in projections of future changes to sea level extremes, and focus efforts on understanding long-term coastline response from the combination of contributing factors.},
author = {McInnes, Kathleen L. and White, Christopher J. and Haigh, Ivan D. and Hemer, Mark A. and Hoeke, Ron K. and Holbrook, Neil J. and Kiem, Anthony S. and Oliver, Eric C.J. and Ranasinghe, Roshanka and Walsh, Kevin J.E. and Westra, Seth and Cox, Ron},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1647-8},
isbn = {1573-1480},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {69--83},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Natural hazards in Australia: sea level and coastal extremes}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1647-8},
volume = {139},
year = {2016}
}
@article{McKenzie2014,
abstract = {Abstract Smoke from wildfires has adverse biological and social consequences, and various lines of evidence suggest that smoke from wildfires in the future may be more intense and widespread, demanding that methods be developed to address its effects on people, ecosystems, and the atmosphere. In this paper, we present the essential ingredients of a modeling system for projecting smoke consequences in a rapidly warming climate that is expected to change wildfire regimes significantly. We describe each component of the system, offer suggestions for the elements of a modeling agenda, and provide some general guidelines for making choices among potential components. We address a prospective audience of researchers whom we expect to be fluent already in building some or many of these components, so we neither prescribe nor advocate particular models or software. Instead, our intent is to highlight fruitful ways of thinking about the task as a whole and its components, while providing substantial, if not exhaustive, documentation from the primary literature as reference. This paper provides a guide to the complexities of smoke modeling under climate change, and a research agenda for developing a modeling system that is equal to the task while being feasible with current resources.},
author = {McKenzie, Donald and Shankar, Uma and Keane, Robert E. and Stavros, E. Natasha and Heilman, Warren E. and Fox, Douglas G. and Riebau, Allen C.},
doi = {10.1002/2013ef000180},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {climate change,coupled models,feedbacks,smoke transport},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {35--59},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},
title = {{Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000180 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2013EF000180 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000180},
volume = {2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Mclay2019,
author = {Mclay, J G and Hendricks, Eric A and Moskaitis, Jonathan R},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0353.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {2},
pages = {309--334},
title = {{High-resolution seeded simulations of western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones in two future extreme climates}},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{McLean2015d,
abstract = {End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM) under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD) and extreme rainfall (R95P) than consecutive dry days (CDD), wet days (R10), and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5). Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana). Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean).},
author = {McLean, Natalie Melissa and Stephenson, Tannecia Sydia and Taylor, Michael Alexander and Campbell, Jayaka Danaco},
doi = {10.1155/2015/425987},
issn = {1687-9309},
journal = {Advances in Meteorology},
pages = {425987},
title = {{Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones}},
url = {http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2015/425987/},
volume = {2015},
year = {2015}
}
@article{McLean2015c,
abstract = {The future of low‐lying reef islands has been the subject of international concern, scientific debate, and media interest in the last decade. As a result of sea‐level rise, atoll islands are expected to become increasingly unstable and to be susceptible to potential depopulation by the end of the 21st century. Some have suggested that sea‐level rise has already resulted in widespread erosion and inundation of atoll islands. Here, we analyze the physical changes in over 200 islands on 12 atolls in the central and western Pacific in the past few decades when sea level in the region increased at rates three to four times the global average. Results show little evidence of heightened erosion or reduction in island size. Instead island shores have adjusted their position and morphology in response to human impacts such as seawall construction and to variations in climate–ocean processes. These changes are reviewed and the role of sea‐level rise is evaluated. The implications of this analysis are addressed in two parts. First, we consider the proposition that future sea‐level rise will destabilize atoll islands to such an extent that their inhabitants will be forced to migrate offshore. And second, we identify a series of new challenges relating to risk reduction and adaptation policy for atoll island governments, international agencies, and island communities. These require a substantial shift away from the present adaptation paradigm of external migration and focus on the persistence of atoll islands and in‐country solutions.},
author = {McLean, Roger and Kench, Paul},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.350},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {sep},
number = {5},
pages = {445--463},
title = {{Destruction or persistence of coral atoll islands in the face of 20th and 21st century sea-level rise?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.350},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{mcmillan2010flood,
address = {Christchurch, New Zealand},
author = {McMillan, Hilary and Jackson, Bethanna and Poyck, Suzanne},
keywords = {AgDialogue,NIWA,climate,climate change,flood,flooding,framework,impacts,risk},
pages = {63},
publisher = {National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)},
title = {{Flood Risk Under Climate Change: A framework for assessing the impacts of climate change on river flow and floods, using dynamically-downscaled climate scenarios. A case study for the Uawa (East Cape) and Waihou (Northland) catchments}},
url = {https://niwa.co.nz/sites/niwa.co.nz/files/import/attachments/chc2010{\_}033{\_}Flood{\_}Risk{\_}CC.pdf},
year = {2010}
}
@article{H.McMillan2012,
abstract = {[Abstract This paper presents good practice methods for flood risk assessment under climate change in urban areas of New Zealand, following techniques selected from the "Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Infrastructure and the Built Environment Toolbox" (see the first paper in this special issue and NIWA, MWH, GNS and BRANZ, 2012). A case study evaluating flood risk in Westport is used to demonstrate the methods. Hence this paper has a dual purpose to explain the modelling methods and to provide a flood risk assessment for Westport under selected climate change scenarios. We show how physically-based climate, hydrological and hydrodynamic models can be used together to simulate changes in meteorological and hydrological processes under future climates, and evaluate the effect of those changes on projections of flood inundation and risks to people and assets. Using a historic 1-in-50 year event as a baseline, we predicted how the severity of that event would change under each climate scenario. Statistically downscaled projections from Global Climate Models were used to define appropriate adjustments to the historical rainfall and temperature measurements. Using the hydrological model TopNet, this data was used to simulate flood hydrographs at the Te Kuha gauging station upstream of Westport. The resulting hydrographs predicted for the future time period 2080-2099 correspond to events in the current climate with recurrence intervals of 78, 98 and 113 years for the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC SRES scenarios respectively. The flood hydrographs provided upstream boundary conditions for a 2D hydrodynamic model simulating inundation of the Buller floodplain. Predictions for inundated area increase from 50{\%} of Westport town in the current climate to 67{\%}, 70{\%}, and 72{\%} for the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios for the 2080-2099 time period. Resulting maps of inundation depths and velocities allow detailed planning for mitigation of flood events. We used the hazard assessment tool RiskScape to calculate the impact of the flood on people and assets (buildings, contents and vehicles) within the inundated area. The predictions showed that under the A1B 2080-2099 scenario, present day Westport could expect risk to life classified as ‘Medium' or greater to 560 people, building damage of {\$}72M and contents damage of {\$}68M.]},
author = {McMillan, H. and Duncan, M. and Smart, G. and Sturman, J. and Poyck, S. and Reese, S. and Tait, A. and Hreinsson, E. and Walsh, J.},
doi = {10.2307/26169731},
issn = {01115499},
journal = {Weather and Climate},
number = {2},
pages = {21},
publisher = {Meteorological Society of New Zealand},
title = {{The Urban Impacts Toolbox}},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/26169731 http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26169731},
volume = {32},
year = {2012}
}
@article{McVicar2012,
author = {McVicar, Tim R and Roderick, Michael L and Donohue, Randall J and Li, Ling Tao and {Van Niel}, Thomas G. and Thomas, Axel and Grieser, J{\"{u}}rgen and Jhajharia, Deepak and Himri, Youcef and Mahowald, Natalie M and Mescherskaya, Anna V and Kruger, Andries C and Rehman, Shafiqur and Dinpashoh, Yagob},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.024},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {jan},
pages = {182--205},
title = {{Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds: Implications for evaporation}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169411007487},
volume = {416-417},
year = {2012}
}
@techreport{MedECC2020b,
address = {Marseille, France},
author = {MedECC},
editor = {Cramer, Wolfgang and Guiot, Jo{\"{e}}l and Marini, Katarzyna},
pages = {600},
publisher = {Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP},
title = {{Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report}},
url = {https://www.medecc.org/first-mediterranean-assessment-report-mar1/},
volume = {in press},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Mediero2014,
abstract = {An analysis to detect trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods was conducted in Spain through nine flood indicators. A data set of gauging stations where the effect of dam regulation on flow series is negligible was obtained. Annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold series were extracted in three periods: 1942-2009, 1949-2009 and 1959-2009. A pre-whitening procedure was applied to remove serial correlation and the Mann-Kendall test selected to detect trends. A general decreasing trend in magnitude and frequency of floods was detected in the three periods, with more notable evidence in 1959-2009. An increasing trend in the timing (i.e. towards later floods) was also found in the northwest of Spain. In addition, a study to relate detected flood trends to a set of potential drivers was also conducted. Most such trends in flood series could be explained by corresponding and increasing trends in evapotranspiration that increase water losses in soils and decrease soil moisture content before the occurrence of floods.},
author = {Mediero, Luis and Santill{\'{a}}n, David and Garrote, Luis and Granados, Alfredo},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.040},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Flood trends,Maximum annual series,Non-stationarity,Peaks-over-threshold series,Spain},
month = {jul},
pages = {1072--1088},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain}},
volume = {517},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Medlock2013,
abstract = {Many factors are involved in determining the latitudinal and altitudinal spread of the important tick vector Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Europe, as well as in changes in the distribution within its prior endemic zones. This paper builds on published literature and unpublished expert opinion from the VBORNET network with the aim of reviewing the evidence for these changes in Europe and discusses the many climatic, ecological, landscape and anthropogenic drivers. These can be divided into those directly related to climatic change, contributing to an expansion in the tick's geographic range at extremes of altitude in central Europe, and at extremes of latitude in Scandinavia; those related to changes in the distribution of tick hosts, particularly roe deer and other cervids; other ecological changes such as habitat connectivity and changes in land management; and finally, anthropogenically induced changes. These factors are strongly interlinked and often not well quantified. Although a change in climate plays an important role in certain geographic regions, for much of Europe it is non-climatic factors that are becoming increasingly important. How we manage habitats on a landscape scale, and the changes in the distribution and abundance of tick hosts are important considerations during our assessment and management of the public health risks associated with ticks and tick-borne disease issues in 21(st) century Europe. Better understanding and mapping of the spread of I. ricinus (and changes in its abundance) is, however, essential to assess the risk of the spread of infections transmitted by this vector species. Enhanced tick surveillance with harmonized approaches for comparison of data enabling the follow-up of trends at EU level will improve the messages on risk related to tick-borne diseases to policy makers, other stake holders and to the general public.},
author = {Medlock, Jolyon M. and Hansford, Kayleigh M. and Bormane, Antra and Derdakova, Marketa and Estrada-Pe{\~{n}}a, Agust{\'{i}}n and George, Jean-Claude and Golovljova, Irina and Jaenson, Thomas G T and Jensen, Jens-Kjeld and Jensen, Per M. and Kazimirova, Maria and Oteo, Jos{\'{e}} A. and Papa, Anna and Pfister, Kurt and Plantard, Olivier and Randolph, Sarah E. and Rizzoli, Annapaola and Santos-Silva, Maria Margarida and Sprong, Hein and Vial, Laurence and Hendrickx, Guy and Zeller, Herve and {Van Bortel}, Wim},
doi = {10.1186/1756-3305-6-1},
isbn = {1756-3305 (Electronic)$\backslash$r1756-3305 (Linking)},
issn = {1756-3305},
journal = {Parasites {\&} Vectors},
keywords = {Climate,Distribution,Ecology,Europe,Ixodes,Surveillance,Tick,Tick-borne disease},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1},
pmid = {23281838},
title = {{Driving forces for changes in geographical distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe}},
url = {http://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1756-3305-6-1 https://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1756-3305-6-1},
volume = {6},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Mei2016,
abstract = {Intensity changes in landfalling typhoons are of great concern to East and Southeast Asian countries1. Regional changes in typhoon intensity, however, are poorly known owing to inconsistencies among different data sets2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Here, we apply cluster analysis to bias-corrected data and show that, over the past 37 years, typhoons that strike East and Southeast Asia have intensified by 12–15{\%}, with the proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 having doubled or even tripled. In contrast, typhoons that stay over the open ocean have experienced only modest changes. These regional changes are consistent between operational data sets. To identify the physical mechanisms, we decompose intensity changes into contributions from intensification rate and intensification duration. We find that the increased intensity of landfalling typhoons is due to strengthened intensification rates, which in turn are tied to locally enhanced ocean surface warming on the rim of East and Southeast Asia. The projected ocean surface warming pattern under increasing greenhouse gas forcing suggests that typhoons striking eastern mainland China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan will intensify further. Given disproportionate damages by intense typhoons1, this represents a heightened threat to people and properties in the region.},
author = {Mei, Wei and Xie, Shang Ping},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2792},
isbn = {1752-0908},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {10},
pages = {753--757},
title = {{Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s}},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@misc{Meixner2016,
abstract = {Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20{\%} in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.},
author = {Meixner, Thomas and Manning, Andrew H. and Stonestrom, David A. and Allen, Diana M. and Ajami, Hoori and Blasch, Kyle W. and Brookfield, Andrea E. and Castro, Christopher L. and Clark, Jordan F. and Gochis, David J. and Flint, Alan L. and Neff, Kirstin L. and Niraula, Rewati and Rodell, Matthew and Scanlon, Bridget R. and Singha, Kamini and Walvoord, Michelle A.},
booktitle = {Journal of Hydrology},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.12.027},
issn = {00221694},
keywords = {Climate change,Groundwater recharge,Recharge mechanisms,Western United States},
month = {mar},
pages = {124--138},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States}},
volume = {534},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Mekis2015,
author = {Mekis, {\'{E}}va and Vincent, Lucie A. and Shephard, Mark W. and Zhang, Xuebin},
doi = {10.1080/07055900.2015.1086970},
issn = {0705-5900},
journal = {Atmosphere-Ocean},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {383--397},
title = {{Observed Trends in Severe Weather Conditions Based on Humidex, Wind Chill, and Heavy Rainfall Events in Canada for 1953–2012}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07055900.2015.1086970},
volume = {53},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Melchiorre2012,
author = {Melchiorre, Caterina and Frattini, Paolo},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0325-0},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {2},
pages = {413--436},
title = {{Modelling probability of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in a changing climate, Otta, Central Norway}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0325-0},
volume = {113},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Melet2018,
abstract = {Coastal communities are threatened by sea-level changes operating at various spatial scales; global to regional variations are associated with glacier and ice sheet loss and ocean thermal expansion, while smaller coastal-scale variations are also related to atmospheric surges, tides and waves. Here, using 23 years (1993–2015) of global coastal sea-level observations, we examine the contribution of these latter processes to long-term sea-level rise, which, to date, have been relatively less explored. It is found that wave contributions can strongly dampen or enhance the effects of thermal expansion and land ice loss on coastal water-level changes at interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Along the US West Coast, for example, negative wave-induced trends dominate, leading to negative net water-level trends. Accurate estimates of past, present and future coastal sea-level rise therefore need to consider low-frequency contributions of wave set-up and swash.},
author = {Melet, Ang{\'{e}}lique and Meyssignac, Benoit and Almar, Rafael and {Le Cozannet}, Gon{\'{e}}ri},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0088-y},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Attribution,Climate change,Physical oceanography},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {234--239},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Under-estimated wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0088-y},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Melvin2017,
abstract = {Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled {\$}5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3{\%} discount) for RCP8.5 and {\$}4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by {\$}1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to {\$}2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and {\$}2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80-100{\%} across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.},
author = {Melvin, April M and Larsen, Peter and Boehlert, Brent and Neumann, James E and Chinowsky, Paul and Espinet, Xavier and Martinich, Jeremy and Baumann, Matthew S and Rennels, Lisa and Bothner, Alexandra and Nicolsky, Dmitry J and Marchenko, Sergey S},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1611056113},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Alaska,adaptation,climate change,damages,infrastructure},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {E122--E131},
pmid = {28028223},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28028223 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC5240706 http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1611056113},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mentaschi2018,
abstract = {Changes in coastal morphology have broad consequences for the sustainability of coastal communities, structures and ecosystems. Although coasts are monitored locally in many places, understanding long-term changes at a global scale remains a challenge. Here we present a global and consistent evaluation of coastal morphodynamics over 32 years (1984–2015) based on satellite observations. Land losses and gains were estimated from the changes in water presence along more than 2 million virtual transects. We find that the overall surface of eroded land is about 28,000 km2, twice the surface of gained land, and that often the extent of erosion and accretion is in the order of km. Anthropogenic factors clearly emerge as the dominant driver of change, both as planned exploitation of coastal resources, such as building coastal structures, and as unforeseen side effects of human activities, for example the installment of dams, irrigation systems and structures that modify the flux of sediments, or the clearing of coastal ecosystems, such as mangrove forests. Another important driver is the occurrence of natural disasters such as tsunamis and extreme storms. The observed global trend in coastal erosion could be enhanced by Sea Level Rise and more frequent extreme events under a changing climate.},
author = {Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Vousdoukas, Michalis I. and Pekel, Jean-Francois and Voukouvalas, Evangelos and Feyen, Luc},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-30904-w},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Hydrology,Natural hazards},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {12876},
pmid = {11443236},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Global long-term observations of coastal erosion and accretion}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-30904-w},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mentaschi2017a,
abstract = {In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30{\%} in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long‐term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low‐lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.},
author = {Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Vousdoukas, Michalis I. and Voukouvalas, Evangelos and Dosio, Alessandro and Feyen, Luc},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL072488},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {AAO,ENSO,and NAO,coastal hazard,extreme waves,nonstationary EVA,teleconnections,wave climate changes},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2416--2426},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL072488},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{MeredithM.SommerkornM.CassotaS.DerksenC.EkaykinA.HollowedA2019,
author = {Meredith, M. and Sommerkorn, M. and Cassota, S. and Derksen, C. and Ekaykin, A. and Hollowed, A and Kofinas, G. and Mackintosh, A. and Melbourne-Thomas, J. and Muelbert, M.M.C. and Ottersen, G. and Pritchard, H. and Schuur, E.A.G.},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {203--320},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Polar Regions}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Mernild2018,
abstract = {We analyzed modeled river runoff variations west of the Andes Cordillera's continental divide for 1979/80–2013/14 (35 years). Our foci were annual runoff conditions, runoff origins (rain, snowmelt, and glacier ice), and runoff spatiotemporal variability. Low and high runoff conditions were defined as occurrences that fall outside the 10th (low values) and 90th (high values) percentile values of the period of record. SnowModel and HydroFlow modeling tools were used at 4-km horizontal grid increments and 3-h time intervals. NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets were used as atmospheric forcing. This modeling system includes evaporation and sublimation from snow-covered surfaces, but it does not take into account evapotranspiration from bare and vegetation-covered soils and from river and lake surfaces. In general for the Andes Cordillera, the simulated runoff decreased before 1997 and increased afterward. This could be due to a model precipitation artifact in the MERRA forcing. If so, this artifact would influence the number of years with low runoff values, which decreased over time, while the number of high runoff values increased over time. For latitudes south of {\~{}}40°S, both the greatest decrease in the number of low runoff values and the greatest increase in high runoff values occurred. High runoff values averaged 84{\%} and 58{\%} higher than low values for nonglacierized and glacierized catchments, respectively. Furthermore, for glacierized catchments, 61{\%} and 62{\%} of the runoff originated from rain-derived runoff during low and high runoff extreme years, respectively; 28{\%} and 30{\%} from snowmelt-derived runoff; and 11{\%} and 8{\%} from glacier-ice-melt-derived runoff. As the results could be MERRA dependent, more work with other precipitation forcings and/or in situ measurements is needed to assess whether these are real runoff behaviors or artifacts.},
author = {Mernild, Sebastian H. and Liston, Glen E. and Hiemstra, Christopher A. and Yde, Jacob C. and Casassa, Gino},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-17-0094.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
keywords = {Glaciers,Hydrologic models,Land surface,Land surface model,Regional effects,Rivers},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {1167--1189},
title = {{Annual River Runoff Variations and Trends for the Andes Cordillera}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0094.1},
volume = {19},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mernild2014,
abstract = {We use observed air temperature data series from 14 meteorological stations in coastal Greenland (located all around the Greenland Ice Sheet) for 1960-2010, where long-term records for five of the stations extend back to 1890, to illustrate the annual and monthly temporal and spatial distribution of temperature extremes, with the main focus on the latest decade 2001-2010 (2000s). We find that the 2000s had the highest number of mean annual air temperature (MAAT) warm extremes, and the 1890s the highest number of cold extremes, and that a high (low) positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index equals a high number of cold (warm) extreme events. For the 2000s the number of warm extremes was significantly higher by around 50{\%} than the number in the 1940s (the early twentieth century warm period): the latter being the decade with the second highest occurrence of MAAT warm extremes. Since 1960, based on MAAT the number of cold extremes has overall decreased on the decadal timescale, besides a peak in 1980s, while warm extremes have increased, leading to a higher occurrence of extremes (cold plus warm extremes): an almost similar pattern occurred for monthly mean temperatures and monthly mean daily maximum and minimum temperature datasets. Furthermore, a division of Greenland into east and west sectors shows that the occurrence of cold (warm) extremes was more pronounced in the East than in the West in the 1960s and 1970s (mid-1980s to the 2000s). {\textcopyright} 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.},
author = {Mernild, Sebastian H. and Hanna, Edward and Yde, Jacob C. and Cappelen, John and Malmros, Jeppe K.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3777},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Annual and monthly values,Extreme temperature observations,Greenland,Mean,and minimum temperature observation,maximum},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {1472--1487},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Ltd},
title = {{Coastal Greenland air temperature extremes and trends 1890–2010: annual and monthly analysis}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3777},
volume = {34},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Mernild2017,
author = {Mernild, Sebastian H. and Liston, Glen E. and Hiemstra, Christopher A. and Malmros, Jeppe K. and Yde, Jacob C. and McPhee, James},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4804},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Andes Cordillera,MODIS,NASA MERRA,SnowModel,South America,modelling,snow,snow classification},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {1680--1698},
title = {{The Andes Cordillera. Part I: snow distribution, properties, and trends (1979–2014)}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4804},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Merrifield2014,
abstract = {Wave-driven extreme water levels are examined for coastlines protected by fringing reefs using field observations obtained in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The 2{\%} exceedence water level near the shoreline due to waves is estimated empirically for the study sites from breaking wave height at the outer reef and by combining separate contributions from setup, sea and swell, and infragravity waves, which are estimated based on breaking wave height and water level over the reef flat. Although each component exhibits a tidal dependence, they sum to yield a 2{\%} exceedence level that does not. A hindcast based on the breaking wave height parameterization is used to assess factors leading to flooding at Roi-Namur caused by an energetic swell event during December 2008. Extreme water levels similar to December 2008 are projected to increase significantly with rising sea level as more wave and tide events combine to exceed inundation threshold levels.},
author = {Merrifield, M. A. and Becker, J. M. and Ford, M. and Yao, Y.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL061005},
isbn = {9788578110796},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {coral reefs,extreme water levels},
number = {20},
pages = {7245--7253},
title = {{Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands}},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Messina2019,
author = {Messina, Jane P. and Brady, Oliver J. and Golding, Nick and Kraemer, Moritz U. G. and Wint, G. R. William and Ray, Sarah E. and Pigott, David M. and Shearer, Freya M. and Johnson, Kimberly and Earl, Lucas and Marczak, Laurie B. and Shirude, Shreya and {Davis Weaver}, Nicole and Gilbert, Marius and Velayudhan, Raman and Jones, Peter and Jaenisch, Thomas and Scott, Thomas W. and Reiner, Robert C. and Hay, Simon I.},
doi = {10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8},
issn = {2058-5276},
journal = {Nature Microbiology},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1508--1515},
title = {{The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-019-0476-8},
volume = {4},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{MinistryfortheEnvironment&StatsNZ2017,
address = {New Zealand},
author = {MfE and {Stats NZ}},
isbn = {978-1-98-852521-1},
pages = {58},
publisher = {Ministry for the Environment (MfE) and Stats NZ},
series = {New Zealand's Environmental Reporting Series},
title = {{Our atmosphere and climate 2017}},
url = {https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/environmental-reporting/our-atmosphere-and-climate-2017},
year = {2017}
}
@techreport{MfE2018,
address = {Wellington, New Zealand},
author = {MfE},
isbn = {978-1-98-852587-7},
pages = {131},
publisher = {Ministry for the Environment (MfE)},
title = {{Climate Change Projections for New Zealand: Atmosphere Projections Based on Simulations from the IPCC Fifth Assessment, 2nd Edition}},
url = {https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate-change/climate-change-projections-new-zealand},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{MfE2020,
address = {New Zealand},
author = {MfE and {Stats NZ}},
isbn = {9781990033117},
pages = {79},
publisher = {Ministry for the Environment (MfE) and Stats NZ},
series = {New Zealand's Environmental Reporting Series},
title = {{Our atmosphere and climate 2020}},
url = {https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/environmental-reporting/our-atmosphere-and-climate-2020},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Micu2021a,
author = {Micu, Dana Magdalena and Dumitrescu, Alexandru and Cheval, Sorin and Nita, Ion‐Andrei and Birsan, Marius‐Victor},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6952},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {2154--2172},
title = {{Temperature changes and elevation‐warming relationships in the Carpathian Mountains}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6952},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Middleton2019a,
author = {Middleton, Nick and Tozer, Peter and Tozer, Brenton},
doi = {10.1111/disa.12320},
issn = {0361-3666},
journal = {Disasters},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {390--409},
title = {{Sand and dust storms: underrated natural hazards}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/disa.12320},
volume = {43},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Millar2015,
abstract = {Although disturbances such as fire and native insects can contribute to natural dynamics of forest health, exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability. Interactions from increasing temperatures, drought, native insects and pathogens, and uncharacteristically severe wildfire are resulting in forest mortality beyond the levels of 20th-century experience. Additional anthropogenic stressors, such as atmospheric pollution and invasive species, further weaken trees in some regions. Although continuing climate change will likely drive many areas of temperate forest toward large-scale transformations, management actions can help ease transitions and minimize losses of socially valued ecosystem services.},
author = {Millar, C. I. and Stephenson, N. L.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaa9933},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {6250},
pages = {823--826},
pmid = {26293954},
title = {{Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aaa9933},
volume = {349},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Mills2013a,
abstract = {Most examples of seasonal mismatches in phenology span multiple trophic levels, with timing of animal reproduction, hibernation, or migration becoming detached from peak food supply. The consequences of such mismatches are difficult to link to specific future climate change scenarios because the responses across trophic levels have complex underlying climate drivers often confounded by other stressors. In contrast, seasonal coat color polyphenism creating camouflage against snow is a direct and potentially severe type of seasonal mismatch if crypsis becomes compromised by the animal being white when snow is absent. It is unknown whether plasticity in the initiation or rate of coat color change will be able to reduce mismatch between the seasonal coat color and an increasingly snow-free background. We find that natural populations of snowshoe hares exposed to 3 y of widely varying snowpack have plasticity in the rate of the spring white-to-brown molt, but not in either the initiation dates of color change or the rate of the fall brown-to-white molt. Using an ensemble of locally downscaled climate projections, we also show that annual average duration of snowpack is forecast to decrease by 29-35 d by midcentury and 40-69 d by the end of the century. Without evolution in coat color phenology, the reduced snow duration will increase the number of days that white hares will be mismatched on a snowless background by four- to eightfold by the end of the century. This novel and visually compelling climate change-induced stressor likely applies to {\textgreater}9 widely distributed mammals with seasonal coat color.},
author = {Mills, L Scott and Zimova, Marketa and Oyler, Jared and Running, Steven and Abatzoglou, John T and Lukacs, Paul M},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222724110},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {18},
pages = {7360--7365},
pmid = {23589881},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Camouflage mismatch in seasonal coat color due to decreased snow duration}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23589881 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC3645584 http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222724110},
volume = {110},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Mills2016,
abstract = {Evidence on the impacts of climate change is rapidly increasing but there is little change to the speed of climate adaptation by governments and individuals. There are multiple barriers to climate adaptation, including among others: the lack of the public understanding of risks, lack of leadership and availability of resources to adapt. In this study, we assess to what extent coastal residents understand their properties' flood risk, and what predicts their risk perception and adaptation behaviour. We surveyed 420 individuals in South East Queensland projected to be within the permanent or temporary flood zone in 2100 based on combined sea-level rise and storm surge scenarios. We assessed the correlations between the projected (i.e. objective) and perceived risk of inundation, adaptation behaviour, and the individual characteristics considered to influence risk perception and adaptation. While we found a correlation between perceived and some objective flood risks, perceived risk only partially reflected objective risk. Other factors that influenced risk perception were previous experience of flooding events, belief in climate change, risk aversion, age and gender. Factors driving risk perception varied with the type (permanent, temporary) and frequency of flooding event (1 in 20 or 1 in 100 years). Previous experience with extreme event impacts and belief in climate change influenced all future perceived risks. However, even after being impacted by an extreme event, adaptation was moderate (58 {\%}). Personal as well as environmental factors influence the likelihood of adaptation. The moderate adaptation response within our case study is likely a result of most respondents considering large flooding events to be rare and of limited impact, and anticipating future government aid to overcome flooding damage costs. Existing attitudes towards risk, which influence the extent of proactive adaptation, should be of concern to governments who will likely be facing these costs at increasing frequencies.},
author = {Mills, Morena and Mutafoglu, Konar and Adams, Vanessa M. and Archibald, Carla and Bell, Justine and Leon, Javier X.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1644-y},
isbn = {0165-0009},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jun},
number = {3-4},
pages = {523--537},
title = {{Perceived and projected flood risk and adaptation in coastal Southeast Queensland, Australia}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1644-y},
volume = {136},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Milner2017,
abstract = {Glaciers cover {\~{}}10{\%} of the Earth's land surface, but they are shrinking rapidly across most parts of the world, leading to cascading impacts on downstream systems. Glaciers impart unique footprints on river flow at times when other water sources are low. Changes in river hydrology and morphology caused by climate-induced glacier loss are projected to be the greatest of any hydrological system, with major implications for riverine and near-shore marine environments. Here, we synthesize current evidence of how glacier shrinkage will alter hydrological regimes, sediment transport, and biogeochemical and contaminant fluxes from rivers to oceans. This will profoundly influence the natural environment, including many facets of biodiversity, and the ecosystem services that glacier-fed rivers provide to humans, particularly provision of water for agriculture, hydropower, and consumption. We conclude that human society must plan adaptation and mitigation measures for the full breadth of impacts in all affected regions caused by glacier shrinkage.},
author = {Milner, Alexander M. and Khamis, Kieran and Battin, Tom J. and Brittain, John E. and Barrand, Nicholas E. and F{\"{u}}reder, Leopold and Cauvy-Frauni{\'{e}}, Sophie and G{\'{i}}slason, G{\'{i}}sli M{\'{a}}r and Jacobsen, Dean and Hannah, David M. and Hodson, Andrew J. and Hood, Eran and Lencioni, Valeria and {\'{O}}lafsson, J{\'{o}}n S. and Robinson, Christopher T. and Tranter, Martyn and Brown, Lee E.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1619807114},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Biodiversity,Biogeochemistry,Ecosystem services,Glacier,Runoff},
month = {sep},
number = {37},
pages = {9770--9778},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Glacier shrinkage driving global changes in downstream systems}},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Minderhoud2019,
author = {Minderhoud, P S J and Coumou, L and Erkens, G and Middelkoop, H and Stouthamer, E},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-11602-1},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {3847},
title = {{Mekong delta much lower than previously assumed in sea-level rise impact assessments}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11602-1},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Minderhoud2017,
author = {Minderhoud, P S J and Erkens, G and {Van Pham}, H and Bui, Vuong Tran and Erban, Laura E and Kooi, Henk and Stouthamer, E},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa7146},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {6},
pages = {64006},
title = {{Impacts of 25 years of groundwater extraction on subsidence in the Mekong delta, Vietnam}},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Minderhoud2020,
abstract = {The low-lying and populous Vietnamese Mekong delta is rapidly losing elevation due to accelerating subsidence rates, primarily caused by increasing groundwater extraction. This strongly increases the delta's vulnerability to flooding, salinization, coastal erosion and, ultimately, threatens its nearly 18 million inhabitants with permanent inundation. We present projections of extraction-induced subsidence and consequent delta elevation loss for this century following six mitigation and non-mitigation extraction scenarios using a 3D hydrogeological model with a coupled geotechnical module. Our results reveal the long-term physically response of the aquifer system following different groundwater extraction pathways and show the potential of the hydrogeological system to recover. When groundwater extraction is allowed to increase continuously, as it did over the past decades, extraction-induced subsidence has the potential to drown the Mekong delta single-handedly before the end of the century. Our quantifications also disclose the mitigation potential to reduce subsidence by limiting groundwater exploitation and hereby limiting future elevation loss. However, the window to mitigate is rapidly closing as large parts of the lowly elevated delta plain may already fall below sea level in the coming decades. Failure to mitigate groundwater extraction-induced subsidence may result in mass displacement of millions of people and could severely affect regional food security as the food producing capacity of the delta may collapse.},
author = {Minderhoud, P S J and Middelkoop, H and Erkens, G and Stouthamer, E},
doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/ab5e21},
journal = {Environmental Research Communications},
keywords = {Mekong delta,hydrogeology,numerical modeling,projections,relative sea-level rise,subsidence},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {011005},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Groundwater extraction may drown mega-delta: projections of extraction-induced subsidence and elevation of the Mekong delta for the 21st century}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab5e21},
volume = {2},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Mirzabaev2019a,
author = {Mirzabaev, Alisher and Wu, Jianguo and Evans, Jason and Garc{\'{i}}a-Oliva, Felipe and Hussein, Ismail Abdel Galil and Iqbal, Muhammad Mohsin and Kimutai, Joyce and Knowles, Tony and Meza, Francisco and Nedjraoui, Dalila and Tena, Fasil and T{\"{u}}rkeş, Murat and V{\'{a}}zquez, Ranses Jos{\'{e}} and Weltz, Mark},
booktitle = {Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems},
editor = {Shukla, P.R. and Skea, J. and Buendia, E. Calvo and Masson-Delmotte, V. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Zhai, P. and Slade, R. and Connors, S. and van Diemen, R. and Ferrat, M. and Haughey, E. and Luz, S. and Neogi, S. and Pathak, M. and Petzold, J. and Pereira, J. Portugal and Vyas, P. and Huntley, E. and Kissick, K. and Belkacemi, M. and Malley, J.},
keywords = {Aral sea,Asthma,Coccidioidomycosis,Desertification,Dust,Global warming,Land degradation,Meningococcal meningitis,Respiratory problems,Salinization},
pages = {249--343},
publisher = {In press},
title = {{Desertification}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-3},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Mishra2017a,
author = {Mishra, Vimal and Mukherjee, Sourav and Kumar, Rohini and Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} A},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa9388},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {124012},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5°C, and 2.0°C worlds}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9388},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{MISHRA2020124228,
abstract = {Droughts in India affect food production, gross domestic product (GDP), livelihood, and socio-economic condition of a large population associated with agriculture. Recent drought (2015–2018) caused groundwater depletion and affected about one-fourth of the Indian population. However, it remains unclear if the drought of 2015–2018 was among the most severe droughts that occurred in India. Here we use a long-term (1870–2018) data to identify the top five (“deadly”) meteorological/hydrological droughts based on overall severity score in the last century and half period. Out of a total of 18 meteorological droughts, the deadly droughts occurred in 1899, 1876, 2000, 1918, and 1965. Similarly, the deadly hydrological droughts occurred in 1899, 2000, 1876, 1965, and 1918 during 1870–2018. All the five deadly droughts were associated with the positive phase of El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Results show that the relationship between ENSO and monsoon (June to September) precipitation in India has weakened while the role of Indian and Atlantic Oceans have strengthened during the recent decades. Notwithstanding the longest (41 months) duration, the 2015–2018 drought did not feature among the deadly droughts. The 2015–2018 drought affected surface (reservoir storage) and groundwater availability in both southern and northern parts of India and was linked to El-Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole. Droughts and rapidly declining groundwater together can pose serious challenges to water security in India.},
author = {Mishra, Vimal},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124228},
file = {::},
issn = {0022-1694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Drought,GRACE,Groundwater,Reservoir storage,SPI,SRI},
pages = {124228},
title = {{Long-term (1870–2018) drought reconstruction in context of surface water security in India}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169419309631},
volume = {580},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Mitchell2017,
annote = {Times Cited: 65
Mitchell, Daniel AchutaRao, Krishna Allen, Myles Bethke, Ingo Beyerle, Urs Ciavarella, Andrew Forster, Piers M. Fuglestvedt, Jan Gillett, Nathan Haustein, Karsten Ingram, William Iversen, Trond Kharin, Viatcheslav Klingaman, Nicholas Massey, Neil Fischer, Erich Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich Scinocca, John Seland, Oyvind Shiogama, Hideo Shuckburgh, Emily Sparrow, Sarah Stone, Daithi Uhe, Peter Wallom, David Wehner, Michael Zaaboul, Rashyd
Sparrow, Sarah/D-7905-2016; Fischer, Erich/B-6067-2011; Mitchell, Dann/U-6509-2018; Forster, Piers/F-9829-2010; Klingaman, Nicholas/H-4610-2012; Shiogama, Hideo/B-9598-2012; Wehner, Michael/F-7841-2015
Sparrow, Sarah/0000-0002-1802-6909; Fischer, Erich/0000-0003-1931-6737; Mitchell, Dann/0000-0002-0117-3486; Forster, Piers/0000-0002-6078-0171; Klingaman, Nicholas/0000-0002-2927-9303; Shiogama, Hideo/0000-0001-5476-2148; Wehner, Michael/0000-0001-5991-0082; Bethke, Ingo/0000-0002-6836-9838; Beyerle, Urs/0000-0002-6464-0838; Wallom, David/0000-0001-7527-3407
67
1991-9603},
author = {Mitchell, D and AchutaRao, K and Allen, M and Bethke, I and Beyerle, U and Ciavarella, A and Forster, P M and Fuglestvedt, J and Gillett, N and Haustein, K and Ingram, W and Iversen, T and Kharin, V and Klingaman, N and Massey, N and Fischer, E and Schleussner, C F and Scinocca, J and Seland, O and Shiogama, H and Shuckburgh, E and Sparrow, S and Stone, D and Uhe, P and Wallom, D and Wehner, M and Zaaboul, R},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017},
isbn = {1991-959X},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
number = {2},
pages = {571--583},
title = {{Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design}},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mock2000,
abstract = {The snow avalanche climate of the western United States has long been suspected to consist of three main climate zones that relate with different avalanche characteristics: coastal, intermountain, and continental. The coastal zone of the Pacific mountain ranges is characterized by abundant snowfall, higher snow densities, and higher temperatures. The continental zone of the Colorado Rockies is characterized by lower temperatures, lower snowfall, lower snow densities, higher snow temperature gradients, and a more persistently unstable snowpack resulting from depth hoar. The intermountain zone of Utah, Montana, and Idaho is intermediate between the other two zones. A quantitative analysis of snow avalanche climate of the region was conducted based on Westwide Avalanche Network data from 1969 to 1995. A binary avalanche climate classification, based on well-known thresholds and ranges of snowpack and climatic variables, illustrates the broadscale climatology of the three major zones, some spatially heterogeneous patterns, and variations with elevation. Widespread spatial shifts toward more coastal conditions occurred during 1985/86 and 1991/92, and shifts toward more continental conditions occurred during 1976/77 and 1987/88. Height anomalies at 500 mb explain many of these shifts, but daily plots of climate and avalanche variables during seasonal extremes for sites in northern Utah also illustrate the importance of understanding snowpack and weather variations that occur at daily to weekly timescales. Data from several central Rocky Mountain sites indicate some relationships with the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern and the Pacific decadal oscillation, illustrating the importance of applying long-term records in an avalanche hazard assessment.},
author = {Mock, Cary J. and Birkeland, Karl W.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<2367:SACOTW>2.3.CO;2},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {2367--2392},
title = {{Snow Avalanche Climatology of the Western United States Mountain Ranges}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477{\%}282000{\%}29081{\%}3C2367{\%}3ASACOTW{\%}3E2.3.CO{\%}3B2},
volume = {81},
year = {2000}
}
@article{Mock2017,
author = {Mock, Cary J. and Carter, Kristy C. and Birkeland, Karl W.},
doi = {10.1080/24694452.2016.1203285},
issn = {2469-4452},
journal = {Annals of the American Association of Geographers},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {299--308},
title = {{Some Perspectives on Avalanche Climatology}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24694452.2016.1203285},
volume = {107},
year = {2017}
}
@techreport{MinistryoftheEnvironment;MinistryofEducationCultureSportsScienceandTechnology;MinistryofAgricultureForestryandFisheries;MinistryofLandInfrastructure2018,
address = {Japan},
author = {MOE and MEXT and MAFF and MLIT and JMA},
pages = {8},
publisher = {Ministry of the Environment (MOE), Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) and Japan Meteorological Agenc},
title = {{Climate Change in Japan and Its Impacts}},
url = {https://www.env.go.jp/earth/tekiou/pamph2018{\_}full{\_}Eng.pdf},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Moemken2018,
abstract = {Abstract Renewable energy production is strongly influenced by weather and climate. Regional climate projections can be useful to quantify climate change impacts on renewable energies. With this aim, we analyze future changes of wind speed and wind energy potentials using a multimodel ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations at 12 km and three-hourly resolution, considering nine different global and regional climate model chains. A comparison between modeled historical 10 m wind speeds and ERA-Interim-driven evaluation runs for the same regional climate models uncovers some substantial model biases. The bias-corrected 10 m wind speeds are extrapolated to the hub height of a wind turbine to derive gridded wind energy output (Eout). The ensemble mean responses project only small changes of mean annual and winter Eout for large parts of Europe in future decades, but a considerable decrease for summer Eout. In terms of variability, increasing intraannual and interdaily variabilities are projected for large parts of northern, central, and eastern Europe. While the ensemble spread is quite large for interdaily variability, results are more robust for intraannual variability. With respect to wind speed characteristics relevant for wind energy production, a robust increase in the occurrence of low wind speeds ({\textless}3 m/s) is detected. Due to a combination of higher annual mean Eout and lower intraannual variability, climate change could be beneficial for regions like Baltic and Aegean Sea. For large parts of Germany, France, and Iberia, a lower mean Eout and increased intraannual variability may imply larger temporal/spatial fluctuations in future wind energy production and therefore a more challenging wind energy management.},
author = {Moemken, Julia and Reyers, Mark and Feldmann, Hendrik and Pinto, Joaquim G},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD028473},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {6373--6389},
title = {{Future Changes of Wind Speed and Wind Energy Potentials in EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018JD028473},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mohammed2018,
author = {Mohammed, Khaled and {Saiful Islam}, A. K. M. and {Tarekul Islam}, G M and Alfieri, Lorenzo and Khan, Md Jamal Uddin and Bala, Sujit Kumar and Das, Mohan Kumar},
doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001705},
issn = {1084-0699},
journal = {Journal of Hydrologic Engineering},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {04018050},
publisher = {American Society of Civil Engineers},
title = {{Future Floods in Bangladesh under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C Global Warming Scenarios}},
url = {https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/{\%}28ASCE{\%}29HE.1943-5584.0001705 http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/{\%}28ASCE{\%}29HE.1943-5584.0001705},
volume = {23},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mohammed2018a,
abstract = {There is scientific evidence of accelerated sea level rise and saline intrusion. Some impacts, such as stratification and estuarine circulation, are subtle; others are dramatic including shifts in salt-sensitive habitats and limited water availability of suitable quality for industrial and municipal uses. These results have become a remarkable reality resulting in a set of integrated surface water organisation issues. Tremendous population increases overwhelming many coastal areas have expanded the problem. These challenges have been studied from many perspectives using various objectives and methodologies, and then arriving at different findings. However, all research assured that significant rises in sea level have influenced estuaries and tidally affected rivers, and these observations are expected to become rapidly worse in the future. This study introduces, categorises, critically investigates, and synthesises the most related studies regarding accelerated sea level rise and challenges of the development associated with the resources of surface water in estuaries and tidally-affected rivers. This critical review reveals that there is a need for research that focuses on the development of sustainable surface water resources.},
author = {Mohammed, Ruqayah and Scholz, Miklas},
doi = {10.2166/wcc.2017.334},
issn = {2040-2244},
journal = {Journal of Water and Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {1--16},
publisher = {IWA Publishing},
title = {{Critical review of salinity intrusion in rivers and estuaries}},
url = {https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article/9/1/1-16/37946 https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article/9/1/1/37946/Critical-review-of-salinity-intrusion-in-rivers},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2015GL067118,
abstract = {Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of appropriate observation systems, comprehensive, reliable, and consistent information about hail frequency and intensity in Europe is not available. To overcome this constraint, we developed a logistic hail model that quantifies the potential of the atmosphere to form hailstorms. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. This paper presents the application of an adjusted version of the logistic model with the objective being to estimate the hail potential across Europe based on dynamically downscaled National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research1 reanalysis over a long-term period of 60 years (1951–2010). The model output, in terms of the potential hail index (PHI), identified several hot spots that are well known from other observational studies. Time series of the PHI over the 60 year period show a high correlation at different sites across Europe and high annual and multiannual variability, but no overall trend.},
author = {Mohr, S and Kunz, M and Geyer, B},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL067118},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Europe,climate variability,hail,logistic regression,temporal variability,thunderstorm},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {10904--10912},
title = {{Hail potential in Europe based on a regional climate model hindcast}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015GL067118 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL067118},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/2014JD022959,
abstract = {This study investigates to what extent the frequency of hail events in the summer months has changed during the past decades and which changes are expected to occur in the future. To improve the diagnostics of hail events by considering various factors relevant for the formation of hail, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. This statistical model is based on a combination of appropriate meteorological parameters (convective parameter, moisture content, etc.) and synoptic weather types. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index. Validations with independent data sets confirm the reliability of the model results. For Germany, the logistic hail model applied to reanalysis data over the past decades shows a markedly north-to-south gradient with most of the potential hail days occurring in the south. Applied to an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations, it is found that the potential for hail events will increase in the future (2021–2050) compared to the past (1971–2000), but only statistically significant in the northwest and south of Germany.},
author = {Mohr, S and Kunz, M and Keuler, K},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD022959},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Germany,future,hail,logistic regression,thunderstorm},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3939--3956},
title = {{Development and application of a logistic model to estimate the past and future hail potential in Germany}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014JD022959 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD022959},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Monaco2019,
abstract = {Predicting the spread of invasive species in a warming world calls for a better understanding of the mechanisms behind the relative performance of both invasive and indigenous species as recipient communities can offer biotic resistance. A particularly important functional trait in this context is reproductive potential. The Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis is invasive world-wide and threatens the native brown mussel Perna perna on South African rocky shores. Where they co-exist, Mytilus dominates the high and Perna the low mussel zone, overlapping in the middle. Mytilus generally exhibits high individual reproductive output, but feeding time is reduced, physical conditions are stressful and adult densities are lower on the higher shore. We compared overall reproductive potential of populations of the two species using a 1-year data set for three sites, accounting for within-shore distribution and abundances. Despite the restriction of Mytilus to the more stressful upper-shore, its aggregate reproductive potential was comparable to that of Perna. We then used Dynamic Energy Budget modelling to test the effects of changing conditions by calculating aggregate reproductive potential under temperature conditions predicted for the end of the century by the International Panel on Climate Change. The results suggest increased aggregate reproductive potential for both species, but the effect was stronger for the native species at two of three sites, implying increased biotic resistance by Perna to the further spread of Mytilus. Combining ecological context and physiological performance elucidates how interactions between native and invasive species may alter. Such nuances are fundamental to anticipating winners or losers in a world where distribution shifts are increasingly common.},
author = {Monaco, Cristi{\'{a}}n J. and McQuaid, Christopher D.},
doi = {10.1007/s10530-019-01990-2},
issn = {15731464},
journal = {Biological Invasions},
keywords = {Climate change,Dynamic Energy Budget model,Invasive species,Physiological performance,Reproductive output,Rocky shore,Species distribution},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {2503--2516},
publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
title = {{Climate warming reduces the reproductive advantage of a globally invasive intertidal mussel}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-019-01990-2},
volume = {21},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Monaghan2018,
abstract = {The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti. Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061–2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Population growth is quantified using gridded global population projections consistent with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Change scenarios are compared to a 1950–2000 reference period. A global land area of 56.9 M km2 is climatically suitable for Ae. aegypti during the reference period, and is projected to increase by 8 {\%} (RCP4.5) to 13 {\%} (RCP8.5) by 2061–2080. The annual average number of people exposed globally to Ae. aegypti for the reference period is 3794 M, a value projected to statistically significantly increase by 298–460 M (8–12 {\%}) by 2061–2080 if only climate change is considered, and by 4805–5084 M (127–134 {\%}) for SSP3 and 2232–2483 M (59–65 {\%}) for SSP5 considering both climate and population change (lower and upper values of each range represent RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively). Thus, taking the lower-emissions RCP4.5 pathway instead of RCP8.5 may mitigate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti globally, but the effect of population growth on exposure will likely be larger. Regionally, Australia, Europe and North America are projected to have the largest percentage increases in human exposure to Ae. aegypti considering only climate change.},
author = {Monaghan, Andrew J. and Sampson, K. M. and Steinhoff, D. F. and Ernst, K. C. and Ebi, K. L. and Jones, B. and Hayden, M. H.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1679-0},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {487--500},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1679-0},
volume = {146},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mondoro2018,
abstract = {The management of civil infrastructure, including the allocation of scarce resources, is an engineering issue that now must also consider the highly politicized, highly debated hazard of climate change. Bridges, in particular, are increasingly vulnerable to damage as a result of the sea level rise, increasingly intense precipitation, and increasingly intense hurricanes that accompany climate change. This review paper focuses on the current challenges facing bridge owners and managers as a result of anthropogenic and natural climate changes. The complexities of the climate change are discussed and the current state of research regarding the direct relationship to anthropogenic climate changes, as well as natural climate patterns, is presented. Potential adaptation measures are outlined for repair and retrofit measures that may help mitigate the negative impact of climate change. Methodologies for planning under uncertainty, including stochastic and robust optimization methods, are discussed with respect to bridge management under climate change.},
author = {Mondoro, Alysson and Frangopol, Dan M. and Liu, Liang},
doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000270},
issn = {1527-6988},
journal = {Natural Hazards Review},
keywords = {Bridge management,Climate change,Engineering,Optimization,Retrofit,Uncertainty},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {04017023},
publisher = {American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)},
title = {{Bridge Adaptation and Management under Climate Change Uncertainties: A Review}},
url = {http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/{\%}28ASCE{\%}29NH.1527-6996.0000270},
volume = {19},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Monioudi2017,
abstract = {The present contribution constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to (a) record the spatial characteristics of the beaches of the Aegean archipelago (Greece), a critical resource for both the local and national economy, and (b) provide a rapid assessment of the impacts of the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) under different scenarios. Spatial information and other attributes (e.g., presence of coastal protection works and backshore development) of the beaches of the 58 largest islands of the archipelago were obtained on the basis of remote-sensed images available on the web. Ranges of SLR-induced beach retreats under different morphological, sedimentological and hydrodynamic forcing, and SLR scenarios were estimated using suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. These ranges, combined with empirically derived estimations of wave run-up induced flooding, were then compared with the recorded maximum beach widths to provide ranges of retreat/erosion and flooding at the archipelago scale. The spatial information shows that the Aegean pocket beaches may be particularly vulnerable to mean sea level rise (MSLR) and episodic SLRs due to (i) their narrow widths (about 59{\%} of the beaches have maximum widths {\textless}20m), (ii) their limited terrestrial sediment supply, (iii) the substantial coastal development and (iv) the limited existing coastal protection. Modeling results indeed project severe impacts under mean and episodic SLRs, which by 2100 could be devastating. For example, under MSLR of 0.5m – representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) – a storm-induced sea level rise of 0.6m is projected to result in a complete erosion of between 31 and 88{\%} of all beaches (29–87{\%} of beaches are currently fronting coastal infrastructure and assets), at least temporarily. Our results suggest a very considerable risk which will require significant effort, financial resources and policies/regulation in order to protect/maintain the critical economic resource of the Aegean archipelago.},
author = {Monioudi, Isavela N and Velegrakis, Adonis F and Chatzipavlis, Antonis E and Rigos, Anastasios and Karambas, Theophanis and Vousdoukas, Michalis I and Hasiotis, Thomas and Koukourouvli, Nikoletta and Peduzzi, Pascal and Manoutsoglou, Eva and Poulos, Serafim E. and Collins, Michael B.},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {449--466},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-449-2017 https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/449/2017/},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Monsieurs2019,
author = {Monsieurs, Elise and Dewitte, Olivier and Demoulin, Alain},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-19-775-2019},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {775--789},
title = {{A susceptibility-based rainfall threshold approach for landslide occurrence}},
url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/775/2019/},
volume = {19},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Montroull2018,
abstract = {The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 °C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 °C established in Paris and for 3 °C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Paran{\'{a}}, Iguaz{\'{u}} and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between ±20{\%}. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level.},
author = {Montroull, Natalia B. and Saurral, Ramiro I. and Camilloni, In{\'{e}}s A.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5505},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {La Plata basin,global mean temperature target,hydrology,regional hydrology impact},
month = {jun},
number = {8},
pages = {3355--3368},
title = {{Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming above the pre-industrial level}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5505},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Moore2018,
author = {Moore, J Keith and Fu, Weiwei and Primeau, Francois and Britten, Gregory L and Lindsay, Keith and Long, Matthew and Doney, Scott C and Mahowald, Natalie and Hoffman, Forrest and Randerson, James T},
doi = {10.1126/science.aao6379},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {mar},
number = {6380},
pages = {1139--1143},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity}},
url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aao6379},
volume = {359},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mora2018,
abstract = {The ongoing emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is triggering changes in many climate hazards that can impact humanity. We found traceable evidence for 467 pathways by which human health, water, food, economy, infrastructure and security have been recently impacted by climate hazards such as warming, heatwaves, precipitation, drought, floods, fires, storms, sea-level rise and changes in natural land cover and ocean chemistry. By 2100, the world's population will be exposed concurrently to the equivalent of the largest magnitude in one of these hazards if emmisions are aggressively reduced, or three if they are not, with some tropical coastal areas facing up to six simultaneous hazards. These findings highlight the fact that GHG emissions pose a broad threat to humanity by intensifying multiple hazards to which humanity is vulnerable.},
author = {Mora, Camilo and Spirandelli, Daniele and Franklin, Erik C. and Lynham, John and Kantar, Michael B. and Miles, Wendy and Smith, Charlotte Z. and Freel, Kelle and Moy, Jade and Louis, Leo V. and Barba, Evan W. and Bettinger, Keith and Frazier, Abby G. and {Colburn IX}, John F. and Hanasaki, Naota and Hawkins, Ed and Hirabayashi, Yukiko and Knorr, Wolfgang and Little, Christopher M. and Emanuel, Kerry and Sheffield, Justin and Patz, Jonathan A. and Hunter, Cynthia L.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0315-6},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Environmental impact,change impacts},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1062--1071},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0315-6},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mora2017,
abstract = {Climatic conditions that challenge human thermoregulatory capacity currently affect around a quarter of the world's population annually. Such conditions are projected to increase in line with CO2 emissions particularly in the humid tropics.},
author = {Mora, Camilo and Dousset, B{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}dicte and Caldwell, Iain R. and Powell, Farrah E. and Geronimo, Rollan C. and Bielecki, Coral R. and Counsell, Chelsie W. W. and Dietrich, Bonnie S. and Johnston, Emily T. and Louis, Leo V. and Lucas, Matthew P. and McKenzie, Marie M. and Shea, Alessandra G. and Tseng, Han and Giambelluca, Thomas W. and Leon, Lisa R. and Hawkins, Ed and Trauernicht, Clay},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3322},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Environmental impact},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {501--506},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Global risk of deadly heat}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3322 http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3322},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mordecai2017,
abstract = {Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18–34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26–29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.},
author = {Mordecai, Erin A. and Cohen, Jeremy M. and Evans, Michelle V. and Gudapati, Prithvi and Johnson, Leah R. and Lippi, Catherine A. and Miazgowicz, Kerri and Murdock, Courtney C. and Rohr, Jason R. and Ryan, Sadie J. and Savage, Van and Shocket, Marta S. and {Stewart Ibarra}, Anna and Thomas, Matthew B. and Weikel, Daniel P.},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568},
editor = {Althouse, Benjamin},
issn = {1935-2735},
journal = {PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {e0005568},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
title = {{Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models}},
url = {http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568},
volume = {11},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mordecai2013,
abstract = {Abstract The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures {\textgreater} 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.},
annote = {doi: 10.1111/ele.12015},
author = {Mordecai, Erin A and Paaijmans, Krijn P and Johnson, Leah R and Balzer, Christian and Ben-Horin, Tal and de Moor, Emily and McNally, Amy and Pawar, Samraat and Ryan, Sadie J and Smith, Thomas C and Lafferty, Kevin D},
doi = {10.1111/ele.12015},
issn = {1461-023X},
journal = {Ecology Letters},
keywords = {Anopheles,Plasmodium falciparum,climate change,disease ecology,malaria,temperature},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {22--30},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12015},
volume = {16},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Nakamura2019,
author = {Mori, Masato and Kosaka, Yu and Watanabe, Masahiro and Nakamura, Hisashi and Kimoto, Masahide},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0379-3},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {2},
pages = {123--129},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0379-3},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@inproceedings{Morin2018,
abstract = {Ski tourism plays a major role in European mountain areas such as the Alps, Pyrenees, Scandinavia, Turkey, Eastern European Mountains etc. Meteorological conditions govern the operating conditions of ski resorts, due to their reliance on natural snow fall and favorable conditions for snowmaking. However, there is currently a major lack of assessment of past and future operating conditions of ski resorts at the pan-European scale in the context of climate change. The presented work aims at filling this gap, as part of the ongoing development of « European Tourism » Sectoral Information Service (SIS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). C3S is run by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission. Such an endeavor requires combining state-of-the-art meteorological reanalysis with regional climate projections, followed by the application of a snowpack model accounting for grooming and snowmaking. Emphasis will be placed on the workflow making it possible to analyze the data with various levels of aggregation (from daily data to annual scale indicators, to their statistical moments accounting for multiple climate scenarios and lead times), in order to address the needs of various stakeholders, at the European, national, regional and local scales. The data will be made available freely through the Copernicus Data Store in various ways (download of raw data, download or graphics based on post-processed information accounting for user specific needs). It is expected that the data and the tools developed within this project will not only make it possible to analyze the climate sensitivity of ski tourism in Europe as a topical yet academic research question, but would also help third-parties in developing climate services specifically targeting the ski tourism industry in Europe. This contribution introduces the scientific background and general strategy for generating the products, and delivers preliminary information relevant to this upcoming operational service, planned to open to users from 2019 onwards.},
author = {Morin, Samuel and Abegg, Bruno and Demiroglu, O. Cenk and Pons, Marc and Weber, Fabian and Hoppler, Anna Amacher and Fran{\c{c}}ois, Hugues and George, Emmanuelle and Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel and Rapha{\"{e}}lle, Samaco{\"{i}}ts and Lafaysse, Matthieu and Franklin, Sam and Clifford, Debbie and Cauchy, Adeline and Dubois, Ghislain},
booktitle = {Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Innsbruck, Austria, 2018},
file = {::},
keywords = {climate,climate service,ski resorts,snow management},
pages = {542--547},
title = {{The mountain component of the Copernicus Climate Change Services – Sectoral Information Service “European Tourism”: towards pan-European analysis and projections of natural and managed snow conditions}},
url = {https://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item.php?id=2593},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Moritz2012a,
abstract = {Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.58 resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From the ensemble results, we identify areas of consensus for increases or decreases in fire activity, as well as areas where GCMs disagree. Although certain biomes are sensitive to constraints on biomass productivity and others to atmospheric conditions promoting combustion, substantial and rapid shifts are projected for future fire activity across vast portions of the globe. In the near term, the most consistent increases in fire activity occur in biomes with already somewhat warm climates; decreases are less pronounced and concentrated primarily in a few tropical and subtropical biomes. However, models do not agree on the direction of near- term changes across more than 50{\%} of terrestrial lands, highlighting major uncertainties in the next few decades. By the end of the century, the magnitude and the agreement in direction of change are projected to increase substantially. Most far-term model agreement on increasing fire probabilities (;62{\%}) occurs at mid- to high-latitudes, while agreement on decreasing probabilities (;20{\%}) is mainly in the tropics. Although our global models demonstrate that long-term environmental norms are very successful at capturing chronic fire probability patterns, future work is necessary to assess how much more explanatory power would be added through interannual variation in climate variables. This study provides a first examination of global disruptions to fire activity using an empirically based statistical framework and a multi-model ensemble of GCM projections, an important step toward assessing fire-related vulnerabilities to humans and the ecosystems upon which they depend. Key},
author = {Moritz, Max A. and Parisien, Marc-Andr{\'{e}} and Batllori, Enric and Krawchuk, Meg A. and {Van Dorn}, Jeff and Ganz, David J. and Hayhoe, Katharine},
doi = {10.1890/ES11-00345.1},
isbn = {2150-8925},
issn = {2150-8925},
journal = {Ecosphere},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1--22},
title = {{Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/ES11-00345.1},
volume = {3},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Mortlock2017,
abstract = {In June 2016, an unusual East Coast Low storm affected some 2000 km of the eastern seaboard of Australia bringing heavy rain, strong winds and powerful wave conditions. While wave heights offshore of Sydney were not exceptional, nearshore wave conditions were such that beaches experienced some of the worst erosion in 40 years. Hydrodynamic modelling of wave and current behaviour as well as contemporaneous sand transport shows the east to north-east storm wave direction to be the major determinant of erosion magnitude. This arises because of reduced energy attenuation across the continental shelf and the focussing of wave energy on coastal sections not equilibrated with such wave exposure under the prevailing south-easterly wave climate. Narrabeen–Collaroy, a well-known erosion hot spot on Sydney's Northern Beaches, is shown to be particularly vulnerable to storms from this direction because the destructive erosion potential is amplified by the influence of the local embayment geometry. We demonstrate the magnified erosion response that occurs when there is bi-directionality between an extreme wave event and preceding modal conditions and the importance of considering wave direction in extreme value analyses.},
author = {Mortlock, Thomas and Goodwin, Ian and McAneney, John and Roche, Kevin},
doi = {10.3390/w9020121},
isbn = {2073-4441},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {Climate change,Coastal erosion,Coastal management,East Coast Low,Nearshore processes,Numerical modelling,Southeast Australia},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {121},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{The June 2016 Australian East Coast Low: Importance of Wave Direction for Coastal Erosion Assessment}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/2/121},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Moss2010,
author = {Moss, Richard H. and Edmonds, Jae A. and Hibbard, Kathy A. and Manning, Martin R. and Rose, Steven K. and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Carter, Timothy R. and Emori, Seita and Kainuma, Mikiko and Kram, Tom and Meehl, Gerald A. and Mitchell, John F. B. and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Riahi, Keywan and Smith, Steven J. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Thomson, Allison M. and Weyant, John P. and Wilbanks, Thomas J.},
doi = {10.1038/nature08823},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {feb},
number = {7282},
pages = {747--756},
title = {{The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature08823},
volume = {463},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Moss2011,
abstract = {Global warming and eutrophication in fresh and coastal waters may mutually reinforce the symptoms they express and thus the problems they cause.},
author = {Moss, Brian and Kosten, Sarian and Meerhoff, Mariana and Battarbee, Richard W. and Jeppesen, Erik and Mazzeo, N{\'{e}}stor and Havens, Karl and Lacerot, Gissell and Liu, Zhengwen and {De Meester}, Luc and Paerl, Hans and Scheffer, Marten},
doi = {10.5268/IW-1.2.359},
issn = {20442041},
journal = {Inland Waters},
month = {jul},
number = {2},
pages = {101--105},
title = {{Allied attack: climate change and eutrophication}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.5268/IW-1.2.359},
volume = {1},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Mote2005,
author = {Mote, Philip W. and Hamlet, Alan F. and Clark, Martyn P. and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-86-1-39},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {39--50},
title = {{Declining Mountain Snowpack in Western North America}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-86-1-39},
volume = {86},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Mote2018,
abstract = {Mountain snowpack stores a significant quantity of water in the western US, accumulating during the wet season and melting during the dry summers and supplying much of the water used for irrigated agriculture, and municipal and industrial uses. Updating our earlier work published in 2005, we find that with 14 additional years of data, over 90{\%} of snow monitoring sites with long records across the western US now show declines, of which 33{\%} are significant (vs. 5{\%} expected by chance) and 2{\%} are significant and positive (vs. 5{\%} expected by chance). Declining trends are observed across all months, states, and climates, but are largest in spring, in the Pacific states, and in locations with mild winter climate. We corroborate and extend these observations using a gridded hydrology model, which also allows a robust estimate of total western snowpack and its decline. We find a large increase in the fraction of locations that posted decreasing trends, and averaged across the western US, the decline in average April 1 snow water equivalent since mid-century is roughly 15–30{\%} or 25–50 km3, comparable in volume to the West's largest man-made reservoir, Lake Mead. Mountain snowpack stores huge amounts of water in the western US, supplying much of the water used to grow crops. A team of researchers from Oregon State University and UCLA found that spring snowpack declined almost everywhere, especially in the coastal states and other locations with mild winter climate. (Skiers will be relieved that declines were smaller in winter.) Not surprisingly, the declines are mostly related to warming climate. Using a physically-based model of the hydrologic cycle, which takes daily weather as inputs and computes snow accumulation and melt, runoff, etc., the researchers computed the total snowpack in the western US. Total snowpack declined 15–30{\%}, and the amount of that lost water is comparable in volume to the West's largest man-made reservoir, Lake Mead. Many water managers are already planning for a future with less snow, but this research emphasizes that the future is here.},
author = {Mote, Philip W. and Li, Sihan and Lettenmaier, Dennis P. and Xiao, Mu and Engel, Ruth},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-018-0012-1},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
keywords = {Cryospheric science,Hydrology},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {2},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0012-1},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mu2017,
author = {Mu, Jianhong E. and Sleeter, Benjamin M. and Abatzoglou, John T. and Antle, John M.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2033-x},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {sep},
number = {2},
pages = {329--345},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2033-x},
volume = {144},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mudersbach2017,
author = {Mudersbach, C and Bender, J and Netzel, F},
doi = {10.1007/s00477-015-1173-7},
journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
number = {1},
pages = {145--157},
title = {{An analysis of changes in flood quantiles at the gauge Neu Darchau (Elbe River) from 1875 to 2013}},
volume = {31},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mudryk2018,
abstract = {Abstract. The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020–2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5–10 {\%} per decade (or 15–30 {\%} in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 {\%} per decade (30 {\%} in total) are projected across southern Canada.},
author = {Mudryk, Lawrence R. and Derksen, Chris and Howell, Stephen and Lalibert{\'{e}}, Fred and Thackeray, Chad and Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel and Vionnet, Vincent and Kushner, Paul J. and Brown, Ross},
doi = {10.5194/tc-12-1157-2018},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1157--1176},
title = {{Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/1157/2018/},
volume = {12},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mueller2017,
abstract = {AbstractConversion of native ecosystems to cropland and the use of irrigation are considered dominant pathways through which agricultural land-use change alters regional climate. Recent research pr...},
author = {Mueller, Nathaniel D. and Rhines, Andrew and Butler, Ethan E. and Ray, Deepak K. and Siebert, Stefan and Holbrook, N. Michele and Huybers, Peter and Mueller, Nathaniel D. and Rhines, Andrew and Butler, Ethan E. and Ray, Deepak K. and Siebert, Stefan and Holbrook, N. Michele and Huybers, Peter},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0096.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Agriculture,Atmosphere-land interaction,Extreme events,Trends},
month = {sep},
number = {18},
pages = {7505--7528},
title = {{Global Relationships between Cropland Intensification and Summer Temperature Extremes over the Last 50 Years}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0096.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Mueller2015,
abstract = {Human-induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have led to rising global temperatures. Here we investigate changes in an annual temperature-based index, the growing season length, defined as the number of days with temperature above 5. °C. We show that over extratropical regions where wheat and maize are harvested, the increase in growing season length from 1956 to 2005 can be attributed to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Our analyses also show that climate change has increased the probability of extremely long growing seasons by a factor of 25, and decreased the probability of extremely short growing seasons. A lengthening of the growing season in regions with these mostly rain-fed crops could improve yields, provided that water availability does not become an issue. An expansion of areas with more than 150. days of growing season into the northern latitudes makes more land potentially available for planting wheat and maize. Furthermore, double-cropping can become an alternative to current practices in areas with very long growing seasons which are also shown to increase with a warming climate. These results suggest that there is a strong impact of anthropogenic climate change on growing season length. However, in some regions and with further exacerbated climate change, high temperatures may already be or may become a limiting factor for plant productivity.},
author = {Mueller, Brigitte and Hauser, Mathias and Iles, Carley and Rimi, Ruksana Haque and Zwiers, Francis W. and Wan, Hui},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2015.04.001},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Attribution,Climate change,Crop production,Detection,Growing season length},
month = {sep},
pages = {47--56},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Lengthening of the growing season in wheat and maize producing regions}},
volume = {9},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Mukherjee2018a,
abstract = {Heatwaves with severe impacts have increased and projected to become more frequent under warming climate in India. Concurrent day and nighttime heatwaves can exacerbate human discomfort causing high morbidity and mortality; however, their changes in the observed and projected climate remain unrecognized. Here using observations and model simulations from climate of 20th century plus (C20C+) detection and attribution (D{\&}A) and coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) projects, we show that 1 and 3-day concurrent hot day and hot night (CHDHN) events have significantly increased during the observed climate in India. Our results show that the anthropogenic emissions contribute considerably to the increase of 1 and 3-day CHDHN events in India. The frequency of 3-day CHDHN events is projected to increase 12-fold of the current level by the end of 21st century and 4-fold by the mid 21st century under the high emission pathway of RCP 8.5. The increase in 3-day CHDHN events can be limited to only 2-fold by the end of 21st century under low emission scenario of RCP 2.6. One and 3-day CHDHN events are projected to increase by 4, 6, and 8 folds of the current level in India under the 1.5, 2, and 3 °C warming worlds, respectively. Restricting global mean temperature below 1.5° from the pre-industrial level can substantially reduce the risk of 1 and 3-day CHDHN events and associated implications in India.},
author = {Mukherjee, Sourav and Mishra, Vimal},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-35348-w},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific reports},
number = {1},
pages = {16922},
pmid = {30446705},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{A sixfold rise in concurrent day and night-time heatwaves in India under 2 °C warming.}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30446705 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC6240077},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{Mukherjee2018,
abstract = {Droughts occur naturally, but climate change has generally accelerated the hydrological processes to make them set in quicker and become more intense, with many consequences, not the least of which is increased wildfire risk. There are different types of drought being studied, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic droughts; however, a lack of unanimous definition complicates drought study. Drought indices are used as proxies to track and quantify droughts; therefore, accurate formulation of robust drought indices is important to investigate drought characteristics under the warming climate. Because different drought indices show different degrees of sensitivity to the same level of continental warming, robustness of drought indices against change in temperature and other variables should be prioritized. A formulation of drought indices without considering the factors that govern the background state may lead to drought artifacts under a warming climate. Consideration of downscaling techniques, availability of climate data, estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET), baseline period, non-stationary climate information, and anthropogenic forcing can be additional challenges for a reliable drought assessment under climate change. As one formulation of PET based on temperatures can lead to overestimation of future drying, estimation of PET based on the energy budget framework can be a better approach compared to only temperature-based equations. Although the performance of drought indicators can be improved by incorporating reliable soil moisture estimates, a challenge arises due to limited reliable observed data for verification. Moreover, the uncertainties associated with meteorological forcings in hydrological models can lead to unreliable soil moisture estimates under climate change scenarios.},
author = {Mukherjee, Sourav and Mishra, Ashok and Trenberth, Kevin E.},
booktitle = {Current Climate Change Reports},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-018-0098-x},
file = {::},
issn = {21986061},
keywords = {Climate change,Drought assessment,Drought indices,Global warming},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {145--163},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0098-x},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Mullan2017,
author = {Mullan, Donal and Swindles, Graeme and Patterson, Tim and Galloway, Jennifer and Macumber, Andrew and Falck, Hendrik and Crossley, Laura and Chen, Jie and Pisaric, Michael},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-016-1830-x},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1089--1108},
publisher = {Springer Vienna},
title = {{Climate change and the long-term viability of the World's busiest heavy haul ice road}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-016-1830-x},
volume = {129},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Murage2017,
abstract = {Background: High ambient temperatures are associated with an acute increase in mortality risk. Although heat exposure during the night is anecdotally cited as being important, this has not been rigorously demonstrated in the epidemiological literature. Methods: We quantified the contribution of nighttime temperatures using time-series quasi-Poisson regression on cause and age-specific daily mortality in London between 1993 and 2015. Daytime and nighttime exposures were characterized by average temperatures between 9 am and 9 pm and between 4 am and 8 am, respectively, lagged by 7 days. We also examined the differential impacts of hot and cool nights preceded by very hot days. All models were adjusted for air quality, season, and day of the week. Nighttime models were additionally adjusted for daytime exposure. Results: Effects from nighttime exposure persisted after adjusting for daytime exposure. This was highest for stroke, RR (relative risk) = 1.65 (95{\%} confidence interval (CI) = 1.27 to 2.14) estimated by comparing mortality risk at the 80th and 99th temperature percentiles. Compared to daytime exposure, nighttime exposure had a higher mortality risk on chronic ischemic and stroke and in the younger age groups. Respiratory mortality was most sensitive to daytime temperatures. Hot days followed by hot nights had a greater mortality risk than hot days followed by cool nights. Conclusions: Nighttime exposures make an additional important contribution to heat-related mortality. This impact was highest on warm nights that were preceded by a hot day, which justifies the alert criteria in heat–health warning system that is based on hot days followed by hot nights. The highest mortality risk was from stroke; targeted interventions would benefit patients most susceptible to stroke.},
author = {Murage, Peninah and Hajat, Shakoor and Kovats, R. Sari},
doi = {10.1097/EE9.0000000000000005},
issn = {2474-7882},
journal = {Environmental Epidemiology},
month = {dec},
number = {2},
pages = {e005},
publisher = {Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)},
title = {{Effect of night-time temperatures on cause and age-specific mortality in London}},
url = {http://journals.lww.com/01984727-900000000-99998},
volume = {1},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Murakami2014,
abstract = {The influence of model biases on projected future changes in the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones (FOCs) was investigated using a new empirical statistical method. Assessments were made of present-day (1979– 2003) simulations and future (2075–99) projections, using atmospheric general circulation models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario and phase 5 of the Coupled Model In- tercomparison Project (CMIP5) models under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 sce- narios. The models project significant decreases in global-total FOCs by approximately 6{\%}–40{\%}; however,model biases introduce anuncertaintyof approximately 10{\%}in the total future changes.The influenceofbiasesdepends on themodel physics rather than model resolutions andemissionscenarios. Ingeneral, the biases result in overestimates of projected future changes in basin-total FOCs in the north Indian Ocean (by 118{\%}) and South Atlantic Ocean (1143{\%}) and underestimates in the western North Pacific Ocean (227{\%}), eastern North PacificOcean (229{\%}), andNorth AtlanticOcean (253{\%}). The calibration of model performance using the smaller bias influence appears crucial to deriving meaningful signals in future FOC projections. To obtain more reliable projections, ensemble averages were calculated using the models less influence by model biases. Results indicate marked decreases in projected FOCs in the basins of the Southern Hemisphere, Bay of Bengal, western North Pacific Ocean, eastern North Pacific, and Caribbean Sea and increases in theArabian Sea and the subtropical central Pacific Ocean.},
author = {Murakami, Hiroyuki and Hsu, Pang Chi and Arakawa, Osamu and Li, Tim},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00436.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = {5},
pages = {2159--2181},
title = {{Influence of model biases on projected future changes in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence}},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Murari2015a,
abstract = {Heat waves are expected to intensify around the globe in the future, with potential increase in heat stress and heat-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation measures. India has a high current exposure to heat waves, and with limited adaptive capacity, impacts of increased heat waves might be quite severe. This paper presents the first projections of future heat waves in India based on multiple climate models and scenarios for CMIP5 data. We find that heat waves are projected to be more intense, have longer durations and occur at a higher frequency and earlierMurari, K. et al. (2015) ‘Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality', Regional Environmental Change, (October 2014). doi: 10.1007/s10113-014-0660-6.},
author = {Murari, Kamal Kumar and Ghosh, Subimal and Patwardhan, Anand and Daly, Edoardo and Salvi, Kaustubh},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-014-0660-6},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {569--579},
title = {{Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-014-0660-6},
volume = {15},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Musselman2017,
abstract = {There is general consensus that projected warming will cause earlier snowmelt, but how snowmelt rates will respond to climate change is poorly known. We present snowpack observations from western North America illustrating that shallower snowpack melts earlier, and at lower rates, than deeper, later-lying snow-cover. The observations provide the context for a hypothesis of slower snowmelt in a warmer world. We test this hypothesis using climate model simulations for both a control time period and re-run with a future climate scenario, and find that the fraction of meltwater volume produced at high snowmelt rates is greatly reduced in a warmer climate. The reduction is caused by a contraction of the snowmelt season to a time of lower available energy, reducing by as much as 64{\%} the snow-covered area exposed to energy sufficient to drive high snowmelt rates. These results have unresolved implications on soil moisture deficits, vegetation stress, and streamflow declines.},
author = {Musselman, Keith N. and Clark, Martyn P. and Liu, Changhai and Ikeda, Kyoko and Rasmussen, Roy},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3225},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {214--219},
title = {{Slower snowmelt in a warmer world}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3225},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Muthige2018,
abstract = {Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming To cite this article: M S Muthige et al 2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 065019 View the article online for updates and enhancements. Related content The southern African climate under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming as simulated by CORDEX regional climate models G Ma{\'{u}}re, I Pinto, M Ndebele-Murisa et al.-Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation Francois Engelbrecht, Jimmy Adegoke, Mary-Jane Bopape et al.-Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa Wilfried Pokam Mba, Georges-Noel T Longandjo, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia et al.-This content was downloaded from IP address 140.105.16.64 on 29/09/2018 at 16:30 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 065019 Abstract The Paris Agreement achieved in December 2015 established that the signatory countries should pursue to hold the increase in global average temperature to below 2 • C relative to the preindustrial period and to strive to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 • C below the preindustrial period. The potential changes in tropical cyclones over the basin making landfall over southern Africa under the key global temperature goals have not been thoroughly investigated. Using the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-Africa regional climate models, we downscale six global climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 to high resolution. This serves towards studying changes in tropical cyclone tracks over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming (1.5 • C, 2 • C and 3 • C of warming with respect to pre-industrial conditions). It is projected that the number of tropical cyclones making landfalls over southern Africa under global warming will decrease, with 2 • C being a critical threshold, after which the rate of cyclone frequency with further temperature increases no longer has a diminishing effect. Fewer cyclones may bring benefits and reduce damage to the southern African region. Although a decrease in damages associated with flood events is desirable, general decreases in tropical cyclone and tropical lows may also be associated with decreased rainfall over the Limpopo River basin and southern, central and northern Mozambique (with negative impacts on dryland agriculture).},
author = {Muthige, M S and Malherbe, J and Englebrecht, F A and Grab, S and Beraki, A and Maisha, T R and {Van der Merwe}, J},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabc60},
isbn = {1748-9326},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {global warming,precipitation,tropical cyclones},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {065019},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabc60},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Myers2017,
abstract = {Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems—agriculture, fisheries, and livestock—as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.},
author = {Myers, Samuel S. and Smith, Matthew R. and Guth, Sarah and Golden, Christopher D. and Vaitla, Bapu and Mueller, Nathaniel D. and Dangour, Alan D. and Huybers, Peter},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356},
issn = {0163-7525},
journal = {Annual Review of Public Health},
keywords = {climate change,food security,global environmental change,global health,malnutrition,planetary health},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {259--277},
publisher = { Annual Reviews },
title = {{Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition}},
url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356},
volume = {38},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Myers2014,
abstract = {Dietary deficiencies of zinc and iron are a substantial global public health problem. An estimated two billion people suffer these deficiencies, causing a loss of 63 million life-years annually. Most of these people depend on C3 grains and legumes as their primary dietary source of zinc and iron. Here we report that C3 grains and legumes have lower concentrations of zinc and iron when grown under field conditions at the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted for the middle of this century. C3 crops other than legumes also have lower concentrations of protein, whereas C4 crops seem to be less affected. Differences between cultivars of a single crop suggest that breeding for decreased sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentration could partly address these new challenges to global health.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {15334406},
author = {Myers, Samuel S. and Zanobetti, Antonella and Kloog, Itai and Huybers, Peter and Leakey, Andrew D. B. and Bloom, Arnold J. and Carlisle, Eli and Dietterich, Lee H. and Fitzgerald, Glenn and Hasegawa, Toshihiro and Holbrook, N. Michele and Nelson, Randall L. and Ottman, Michael J. and Raboy, Victor and Sakai, Hidemitsu and Sartor, Karla A. and Schwartz, Joel and Seneweera, Saman and Tausz, Michael and Usui, Yasuhiro},
doi = {10.1038/nature13179},
eprint = {15334406},
isbn = {0028-0836},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jun},
number = {7503},
pages = {139--142},
pmid = {24805231},
title = {{Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature13179},
volume = {510},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Myers-Smith2015,
abstract = {Rapid climate warming has been linked to increasing shrub dominance in the Arctic tundra. Research now shows that climate–shrub growth relationships vary spatially and according to site characteristics such as soil moisture and shrub height.},
author = {Myers-Smith, Isla H. and Elmendorf, Sarah C. and Beck, Pieter S. A. and Wilmking, Martin and Hallinger, Martin and Blok, Daan and Tape, Ken D. and Rayback, Shelly A. and Macias-Fauria, Marc and Forbes, Bruce C. and Speed, James D. M. and Boulanger-Lapointe, No{\'{e}}mie and Rixen, Christian and L{\'{e}}vesque, Esther and Schmidt, Niels Martin and Baittinger, Claudia and Trant, Andrew J. and Hermanutz, Luise and Collier, Laura Siegwart and Dawes, Melissa A. and Lantz, Trevor C. and Weijers, Stef and J{\o}rgensen, Rasmus Halfdan and Buchwal, Agata and Buras, Allan and Naito, Adam T. and Ravolainen, Virve and Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela and Wheeler, Julia A. and Wipf, Sonja and Guay, Kevin C. and Hik, David S. and Vellend, Mark},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2697},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,change ecology},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {887--891},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2697},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Nunez2016,
abstract = {The Zika virus (ZIKV) is an arbovirus which was first isolated in Zika, a valley in Uganda. The first case of human infection was reported in 1954; and since then cases have been described in Africa, Asia, Oceania, and the Americas. Central America has been affected by climate change, poverty, and poor environmental sanitation. Zika virus infection is a vector-borne disease, and there may also be perinatal transmission, as well as by blood transfusions and through infected semen. From a clinical standpoint, ZIKV infection is hardly different Dengue and Chikungunya infections. ZIKV complications are mainly at a neurological level. The governments of the affected regions must have vector control policies, as well as improvements in housing and waste disposal.},
author = {N{\'{u}}{\~{n}}ez, Eduardo and V{\'{a}}squez, Marilin and Beltr{\'{a}}n-Luque, Briana and Padgett, Denis},
isbn = {1018-8800},
issn = {1728-5917},
journal = {Acta M{\'{e}}dica Peruana},
keywords = {03,07,2016,decs bireme,flavivirus,fuente,recibido,s{\'{i}}ndrome de guillain-barr{\'{e}},virosis},
number = {1},
pages = {42--49},
title = {{Virus Zika en Centroam{\'{e}}rica y sus complicaciones (Zika virus in Central America and its complications)}},
url = {http://www.scielo.org.pe/scielo.php?script=sci{\_}arttext{\&}pid=S1728-59172016000100008},
volume = {33},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Nabavi2016,
abstract = {In the past decade, West Asia has witnessed more frequent and intensified dust storms affecting Iran and Persian Gulf countries. Employing a varying threshold that takes into account systematic differences between TOMS and OMI data, TOMS-OMI Aerosol Index data are used to identify long-term changes in the horizontal distribution of dust storms in West Asia from 1980 to present. The northwest of Iraq and east of Syria are identified as emerging dusty areas, whereas east of Saudi Arabia and southeast of Iraq are identified as permanent dusty areas, including both dust sources and affected areas. Whereas the frequency of dust events increased slightly in the permanent dusty areas, it increased markedly in the emerging dusty areas. As expected, the frequency of dust events is highest in June and July. The dust source areas are identified as the Iraq-Saudi Arabia boundary region and (recently) the northwest of Iraq, using MODIS deep blue aerosol optical depth data. Subsequently, a lagged correlation was implemented between identified dust sources and whole West Asia to determine the main paths and receptors of intense dust storms. Accordingly, southwest of Iran and Persian Gulf countries were determined as main receptors of summertime dust storms in West Asia. During spring, dust storms mostly hit the northern half of the region and reach to the Caspian Sea. Analyzing atmospheric patterns, Shamal and Frontal patterns were found as dominant atmospheric circulations simultaneous with summertime and springtime dust storms, respectively.},
author = {Nabavi, Seyed Omid and Haimberger, Leopold and Samimi, Cyrus},
doi = {10.1016/j.aeolia.2016.04.002},
isbn = {978-0-309-25421-2},
issn = {18759637},
journal = {Aeolian Research},
keywords = {Dust storms,MODIS,SeaWIFS,TOMS-OMI Aerosol Index,West Asia},
month = {jun},
pages = {93--107},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Climatology of dust distribution over West Asia from homogenized remote sensing data}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1875963715300203},
volume = {21},
year = {2016}
}
@article{ISI:000513182600019,
abstract = {Stochastic projections of precipitation amount, number of wet days and precipitation per wetday from 25 IPCC AR5 based AOGCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are carried out in all climate regimes of Pakistan. In arid climate regime, the ensemble average annual precipitation is projected to decrease by about 5.56{\%}, 3.43{\%}, 4.94{\%} during 2011-2030 (T-1), 2046-2065 (T-2), 2080-2099 (T-3), relative to baseline period (T-B) respectively, under RCP4.5, whereas average annual precipitation in semi-arid (humid) climate regime, is projected to increase by about 8.40{\%} and 8.02{\%} (2.12{\%} and 2.61{\%}) during T-2 and T-3, relative to T-B, respectively. Under RCP8.5, the average annual precipitation is projected to decrease in arid climate regime during T-1 and increase in semi-arid and humid climate regimes during T-2 and T-3, relative to T-B. There is a projected increase (decrease) in precipitation during T-2 (T-3) in all climate regimes, relative to T-1. Under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), precipitation on wetdays in arid climate regime is projected to be 7.84 (7.64), in semi-arid climate regime it is projected to be 10.78 (10.96) and in humid climate regime it is projected to be 13.67 (13.95) mm wetday(-1), during T-1. During T-2, precipitation per wet day in arid climate regime is projected to be 7.86 (7.83), in semi-arid climate regime it is projected to be 11.32 (11.55), and in humid climate regime it is projected to be 14.40 (14.73) mm wetday(-1) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Overall, under both RCPs, the average annual precipitation and number of wetdays in Pakistan are projected to progressively decrease, whereas precipitation per wetday in Pakistan is projected to progressively increase, all relative to T-B.},
address = {STE 800, 230 PARK AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10169 USA},
author = {Nabeel, A and Athar, H},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104742},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Clima,Precipitation,Stochastic weather generator},
month = {apr},
pages = {104742},
publisher = {ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC},
title = {{Stochastic projection of precipitation and wet and dry spells over Pakistan using IPCC AR5 based AOGCMs}},
type = {Article},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809519308440},
volume = {234},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Nagelkerken2016,
abstract = {Biological communities are shaped by complex interactions between organisms and their environment as well as interactions with other species. Humans are rapidly changing the marine environment through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in ocean warming and acidification. The first response by animals to environmental change is predominantly through modification of their behaviour, which in turn affects species interactions and ecological processes. Yet, many climate change studies ignore animal behaviour. Furthermore, our current knowledge of how global change alters animal behaviour is mostly restricted to single species, life phases and stressors, leading to an incomplete view of how coinciding climate stressors can affect the ecological interactions that structure biological communities. Here, we first review studies on the effects of warming and acidification on the behaviour of marine animals. We demonstrate how pervasive the effects of global change are on a wide range of critical behaviours that determine the persistence of species and their success in ecological communities. We then evaluate several approaches to studying the ecological effects of warming and acidification, and identify knowledge gaps that need to be filled, to better understand how global change will affect marine populations and communities through altered animal behaviours. Our review provides a synthesis of the far-reaching consequences that behavioural changes could have for marine ecosystems in a rapidly changing environment. Without considering the pervasive effects of climate change on animal behaviour we will limit our ability to forecast the impacts of ocean change and provide insights that can aid management strategies.},
author = {Nagelkerken, Ivan and Munday, Philip L.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13167},
isbn = {1354-1013},
issn = {13652486},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Adaptation,Behavioural traits,CO2vents,Community structure,Global change,Life stages,Mesocosms,Population dynamics,Species interactions},
number = {3},
pages = {974--989},
pmid = {26700211},
title = {{Animal behaviour shapes the ecological effects of ocean acidification and warming: Moving from individual to community-level responses}},
volume = {22},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Nagelkerken2015,
abstract = {Rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are anticipated to drive change to ocean ecosystems, but a conceptualization of biological change derived from quantitative analyses is lacking. Derived from multiple ecosystems and latitudes, our metaanalysis of 632 published experiments quantified the direction and magnitude of ecological change resulting from ocean acidification and warming to conceptualize broadly based change. Primary production by temperate noncalcifying plankton increases with elevated temperature and CO2, whereas tropical plankton decreases productivity because of acidification. Temperature increases consumption by and metabolic rates of herbivores, but this response does not translate into greater secondary production, which instead decreases with acidification in calcifying and noncalcifying species. This effect creates a mismatch with carnivores whose metabolic and foraging costs increase with temperature. Species diversity and abundances of tropical as well as temperate species decline with acidification, with shifts favoring novel community compositions dominated by noncalcifiers and microorganisms. Both warming and acidification instigate reduced calcification in tropical and temperate reef-building species. Acidification leads to a decline in dimethylsulfide production by ocean plankton, which as a climate gas, contributes to cloud formation and maintenance of the Earth's heat budget. Analysis of responses in short- and long-term experiments and of studies at natural CO2 vents reveals little evidence of acclimation to acidification or temperature changes, except for microbes. This conceptualization of change across whole communities and their trophic linkages forecast a reduction in diversity and abundances of various key species that underpin current functioning of marine ecosystems.},
author = {Nagelkerken, Ivan and Connell, Sean D},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1510856112},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {acclimation,climate change,diversity,metaanalysis,ocean acidification},
month = {oct},
number = {43},
pages = {13272--13277},
pmid = {26460052},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning due to increasing human CO2 emissions}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1510856112},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Nakaegawa2014a,
abstract = {Future hydroclimate projections for Central America and the Caribbean were investigated with quantified uncertainties using 20-km and 60-km mesh global atmospheric general circulation models. In these regions, only a few future climate projections with high horizontal resolutions are available, although Central America and the Caribbean are characterized by spatial and temporal complexities in climate. Horizontal resolutions of 20 km and 60 km are comparable to those of regional climate models for a large region. Both the 20-km and 60-km mesh models reproduced reasonably well the observed seasonal precipitation patterns. Precipitation was projected to decrease in most of this region in all seasons by the end of this century. Evaporation from the ocean was projected to increase throughout the year, except in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, whereas evaporation from land areas was generally projected to decrease in the dry season and to increase in the rainy season. Surface soil moisture and total runoff in most land areas were therefore projected to decrease in both models in all seasons. Annual mean streamflow in the future climate was projected to decrease in most of Central America and the Caribbean as a result of decreased precipitation and increased evaporation. The values of hydroclimate variables over four land-only domains in the future climate changed significantly on a monthly basis within each season. In contrast, changes in the annual means of hydroclimate variables for individual countries were highly uncertain. {\textcopyright} 2014 by the Japan Meteorological Agency / Meteorological Research Institute.},
author = {Nakaegawa, T. and Kitoh, A. and Kusunoki, S. and Murakami, H. and Arakawa, O.},
doi = {10.2467/mripapers.65.15},
issn = {0031-126X},
journal = {Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics},
pages = {15--33},
title = {{Hydroclimate changes over Central America and the Caribbean in a global warming climate projected with 20-km and 60-km mesh MRI atmospheric general circulation models}},
url = {http://jlc.jst.go.jp/DN/JST.JSTAGE/mripapers/65.15?lang=en{\&}from=CrossRef{\&}type=abstract},
volume = {65},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Nakaegawa2010,
abstract = {This study projects the river discharge in the Magdalena River basin, Colombia, considering projected climate conditions for the 21st century, by using a 20-km-mesh atmospheric global climate model and a 0.5°-mesh global river routing model under a greenhouse gas emission scenario. The climatological annual mean river discharges along the main stream of the Magdalena River do not change significantly, however precipitation, evaporation, and total runoff into the river show statistically significantly changes over most of the Magdalena River basin. By the end of the 21st century, the projected climatological monthly mean river discharge at Puerto Berrio decreases statistically significantly in April, October, and November (P {\textless} 0.05), compared to current values, whereas it shows a distinct increase for June through August, thereby reducing the present bimodality of its seasonal variation. Minimum climatological monthly mean river discharge in February could be lower at the end of the 21st century than in the current condition. These results should help increase the awareness of the changing river discharge in the Magdalena River basin, and prepare adaptation strategies to face these challenges.},
author = {Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki and Vergara, Walter},
doi = {10.3178/hrl.4.50},
issn = {1882-3416},
journal = {Hydrological Research Letters},
pages = {50--54},
title = {{First Projection of Climatological Mean River Discharges in the Magdalena River Basin, Colombia, in a Changing Climate during the 21st Century}},
url = {http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/hrl/4/0/4{\_}0{\_}50/{\_}article},
volume = {4},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Nangombe2018,
abstract = {Anthropogenic forcing is anticipated to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events1, the impacts of which will be particularly hard-felt in already vulnerable locations such as Africa2. However, projected changes in African climate extremes remain little explored, particularly in the context of the Paris Agreement targets3,4. Here, using Community Earth System Model low warming simulations5, we examine how heat and hydrological extremes may change in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios, focusing on the projected changing likelihood of events that have comparable magnitudes to observed record-breaking seasons. In the Community Earth System Model, limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C is suggested to robustly reduce the frequency of heat extremes compared to 2 °C. In particular, the probability of events similar to the December–February 1991/1992 southern African and 2009/2010 North African heat waves is estimated to be reduced by 25 ± 5{\%} and 20 ± 4{\%}, respectively, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C. For hydrometeorological extremes (that is, drought and heavy precipitation), by contrast, signal differences are indistinguishable from the variation between ensemble members. Thus, according to this model, continued efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C offer considerable benefits in terms of minimizing heat extremes and their associated socio-economic impacts across Africa.},
author = {Nangombe, Shingirai and Zhou, Tianjun and Zhang, Wenxia and Wu, Bo and Hu, Shuai and Zou, Liwei and Li, Donghuan},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0145-6},
issn = {1758-6798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {5},
pages = {375--380},
title = {{Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5°C and 2°C global warming scenarios}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0145-6},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Narama2018,
abstract = {Four large drainages from glacial lakes occurred during 2006-2014 in the western Teskey Range, Kyrgyzstan. These floods caused extensive damage, killing people and livestock as well as destroying property and crops. Using satellite data analysis and field surveys of this area, we find that the water volume that drained at Kashkasuu glacial lake in 2006 was 194 000 m3, at western Zyndan lake in 2008 was 437 000m3, at Jeruy lake in 2013 was 182 000m3, and at Karateke lake in 2014 was 123 000m3. Due to their subsurface outlet, we refer to these short-lived glacial lakes as the "tunnel-type", a type that drastically grows and drains over a few months. From spring to early summer, these lakes either appear, or in some cases, significantly expand from an existing lake (but non-stationary), and then drain during summer. Our field surveys show that the short-lived lakes form when an ice tunnel through a debris landform gets blocked. The blocking is caused either by the freezing of stored water inside the tunnel during winter or by the collapse of ice and debris around the ice tunnel. The draining then occurs through an opened ice tunnel during summer. The growth-drain cycle can repeat when the ice-tunnel closure behaves like that of typical supraglacial lakes on debris-covered glaciers. We argue here that the geomorphological characteristics under which such short-lived glacial lakes appear are (i) a debris landform containing ice (ice-cored moraine complex), (ii) a depression with water supply on a debris landform as a potential lake basin, and (iii) no visible surface outflow channel from the depression, indicating the existence of an ice tunnel. Applying these characteristics, we examine 60 depressions ({\textgreater} 0.01 km2/ in the study region and identify here 53 of them that may become short-lived glacial lakes, with 34 of these having a potential drainage exceeding 10m3 s-1 at peak discharge.},
author = {Narama, Chiyuki and Daiyrov, Mirlan and Duishonakunov, Murataly and Tadono, Takeo and Sato, Hayato and K{\"{a}}{\"{a}}b, Andreas and Ukita, Jinro and Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-18-983-2018},
issn = {16849981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {983--995},
title = {{Large drainages from short-lived glacial lakes in the Teskey Range, Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia}},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Narayanan2015,
author = {Narayanan, S. and Prasad, P. V. V. and Fritz, A. K. and Boyle, D. L. and Gill, B. S.},
doi = {10.1111/jac.12101},
issn = {09312250},
journal = {Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {206--218},
title = {{Impact of High Night-Time and High Daytime Temperature Stress on Winter Wheat}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/jac.12101},
volume = {201},
year = {2015}
}
@techreport{NASEM2012,
abstract = {TRB's Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Synthesis 33: Airport Climate Adaptation and Resilience reviews the range of risks to airports from projected climate change and the emerging approaches for handling them.},
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {NASEM},
doi = {10.17226/22773},
isbn = {978-0-309-22363-8},
month = {jun},
pages = {87},
publisher = {National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM). The National Academies Press},
title = {{Airport Climate Adaptation and Resilience}},
url = {https://www.nap.edu/catalog/22773},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Nasim2018,
abstract = {Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997–2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997–2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17{\%}, 26{\%}, and 32{\%} but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54{\%}, 49{\%}, and 86{\%} for 2090 showed highest upto 62{\%}, 75{\%}, and 140{\%} for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.},
author = {Nasim, Wajid and Amin, Asad and Fahad, Shah and Awais, Muhammad and Khan, Naeem and Mubeen, Muhammad and Wahid, Abdul and Rehman, Muhammad Habibur and Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid and Ahmad, Shakeel and Hussain, Sajjad and Mian, Ishaq Ahmad and Khan, Bushra and Jamal, Yousaf},
doi = {10.1016/J.ATMOSRES.2018.01.009},
issn = {0169-8095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
month = {jun},
pages = {118--133},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809517310992?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {205},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Naumann2018,
abstract = {Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to pre- industrial temperatures. Results show that 2/3 of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought duration are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30{\%} of global land mass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become five-fold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the US, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20{\%} of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South-America, Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100 year events could occur every 2 to 5 years under 3°C of warming},
author = {Naumann, G. and Alfieri, L. and Wyser, K. and Mentaschi, L. and Betts, R. A. and Carrao, H. and Spinoni, J. and Vogt, J. and Feyen, L.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076521},
file = {::},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {change,climate,drought,global},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3285--3296},
title = {{Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL076521},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Neff2008,
author = {Neff, J C and Ballantyne, A P and Farmer, G. L. and Mahowald, N M and Conroy, J L and Landry, C C and Overpeck, J T and Painter, T H and Lawrence, C R and Reynolds, R L},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo133},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {189--195},
title = {{Increasing eolian dust deposition in the western United States linked to human activity}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo133},
volume = {1},
year = {2008}
}
@incollection{Nehren2019,
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Nehren, Udo and Kirchner, Andr{\'{e}} and Lange, Wolfram and Follador, Marco and Anhuf, Dieter},
booktitle = {Strategies and Tools for a Sustainable Rural Rio de Janeiro},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-89644-1_20},
editor = {{Nehren U., Schlϋter S., Raedig C., Sattler D.}, Hissa H},
pages = {313--330},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Natural Hazards and Climate Change Impacts in the State of Rio de Janeiro: A Landscape Historical Analysis}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-89644-1{\_}20},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Neri2019,
abstract = {The frequency of flood events has increased across most of the U.S. Midwest in the past 50–70 years; however, little is known about what is driving these changes. Using an observation-driven approach, we develop a statistical framework to attribute the changes in the frequency of flood peak events to changes in the climate system and to land use / land cover. We focus on 287 U.S. Geological Survey sites with at least 50 years of daily discharge measurements between the second half of the 20th century and the present. Our analyses are performed at the seasonal level and consider five predictors: precipitation, temperature, antecedent wetness conditions, agriculture, and population density. Even though we use simple models, we are able to reproduce well the interannual variability in the frequency of flood events as well as the overall long-term tendencies. Results indicate that precipitation and antecedent wetness conditions are the strongest predictors, with the role of the latter increasing as we lower the threshold for the event identification. Temperature is an important predictor only in the northern Great Plains during spring, where snow-related processes are most relevant. Population (as a proxy of urbanization) and agriculture are less important compared to the climate predictors.},
author = {Neri, Andrea and Villarini, Gabriele and Slater, Louise J and Napolitano, Francesco},
doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.03.019},
issn = {03091708},
journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
month = {may},
pages = {225--236},
title = {{On the statistical attribution of the frequency of flood events across the U.S. Midwest}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0309170818304391},
volume = {127},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Neumann2015a,
author = {Neumann, James E. and Price, Jason and Chinowsky, Paul and Wright, Leonard and Ludwig, Lindsay and Streeter, Richard and Jones, Russell and Smith, Joel B. and Perkins, William and Jantarasami, Lesley and Martinich, Jeremy},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-1037-4},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {97--109},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Climate change risks to US infrastructure: impacts on roads, bridges, coastal development, and urban drainage}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-1037-4},
volume = {131},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Neumann2015,
author = {Neumann, Barbara and Vafeidis, Athanasios T. and Zimmermann, Juliane and Nicholls, Robert J.},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0118571},
editor = {Kumar, Lalit},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {e0118571},
title = {{Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding – A Global Assessment}},
url = {http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0118571 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Newth2018,
abstract = {The increased levels of Greenhouse Gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere will result in increased near-surface air temperature and absolute humidity. These two factors increasingly pose a risk of heat stress to humans. The Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a widely used and validated index for assessing the environmental heat stress. Using the output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we calculated the global and regional changes in WBGT. Globally, the WBGT is projected to increase by 0.6-1.7 °C for RCP 2.6 and 2.37-4.4 °C for RCP 8.5. At the regional scale, our analysis suggests a disproportionate increase in the WBGT over northern India, China, northern Australia, Africa, Central America and Southeast Asia. An increase in WBGT has consequences not only on human health but also on social and economic factors. These consequences may be exacerbated in developing economies, which are less able to adapt to the changing environmental conditions.},
author = {Newth, David and Gunasekera, Don},
doi = {10.3390/atmos9050187},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
keywords = {Heat stress,Representative concentration pathways,Wet-bulb globe temperature},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {187},
title = {{Projected Changes in Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature under Alternative Climate Scenarios}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/5/187},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Nguyen2018,
abstract = {This study conducted an updated time of emergence (ToE) analysis of regional precipitation changes over land regions across the globe using multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). ToEs were estimated for 14 selected hotspots over two seasons of April to September (AS) and October to March (OM) from three RCP scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and high (RCP8.5) emissions. Results from the RCP8.5 scenario indicate that ToEs would occur before 2040 over seven hotspots including three northern high-latitude regions (OM wettening), East Africa (OM wettening), South Asia (AS wettening), East Asia (AS wettening) and South Africa (AS drying). The Mediterranean (both OM and AS drying) is expected to experience ToEs in the mid-twenty-first century (2040-2080). In order to measure possible benefits from taking low-emission scenarios, ToE differences were examined between the RCP2.6 scenario and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Significant ToE delays from 26 years to longer than 67 years were identified over East Africa (OM wettening), the Mediterranean (both AS and OM drying), South Asia (AS wettening), and South Africa (AS drying). Further, we investigated ToE differences between CMIP3-based and CMIP5-based models using the same number of models for the comparable scenario pairs (SRESA2 vs. RCP8.5, and SRESB1 vs. RCP4.5). Results were largely consistent between two model groups, indicating the robustness of ToE results. Considerable differences in ToEs (larger than 20 years) between two model groups appeared over East Asia and South Asia (AS wettening) and South Africa (AS drying), which were found due to stronger signals in CMIP5 models. Our results provide useful information on the timing of emerging signals in regional and seasonal hydrological changes, having important implications for associated adaptation and mitigation plans.},
author = {Nguyen, Thuy-Huong and Min, Seung-Ki and Paik, Seungmok and Lee, Donghyun},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4073-y},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {9},
pages = {3179--3193},
title = {{Time of emergence in regional precipitation changes: an updated assessment using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4073-y},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ni2017,
abstract = {The response of hailstorm intensity to climate variability/change has become a topic of community interest recently. But the lack of persistent and homogenous observations makes it difficult to confidently describe its interannual variations. Hail size, as a common indicator of hailstorm intensity, displays distinct regional variability. Here, for the first time, we show robust evidence of a decrease in hail size using continuous and coherent hail size records from 2,254 manned stations in China since 1980. The stations were categorized based on their elevation: plateaus (above 2000 m), foothills (between 500 and 2000 m), and plains (below 500 m). Compared with 1980–1997, the hail size spectra from 1998 to 2015 all shifted toward smaller sizes significantly in plateaus, foothills, and plains. The proportion of overall hail events with maximum sizes of at least 5 and 20 mm significantly decreased since 1980. Meanwhile, the annual mean size of hail above 10 and 20 mm significantly decreased during the research period, especially after 1990. These changes in the hail size spectra may imply a weakened intensity of hailstorms in China in recent decades.},
author = {Ni, Xiang and Zhang, Qinghong and Liu, Chuntao and Li, Xiaofei and Zou, Tian and Lin, Jipei and Kong, Hoiio and Ren, Zhihua},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-11395-7},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {10913},
title = {{Decreased hail size in China since 1980}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11395-7},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{NICHOLLS2015243,
abstract = {Coasts contain a large and growing population and economy including world cities such as London, New York, Tokyo, Shanghai, Mumbai, Lagos, and Rio de Janeiro, as well as important habitats and their ecosystem services. Global sea levels are rising due to climate change and this will accelerate through this century: a rise of more than 1m is possible. In some locations these changes may be exacerbated by (1) increases in storminess due to climate change, although this is less certain, and (2) human-induced subsidence due to ground fluid withdrawal from and drainage of susceptible soils, especially in deltas and alluvial plains. Sea-level rise has a range of potential impacts including higher extreme sea levels (and flooding), coastal erosion, and salinization of surface and ground waters. This threatens the loss of large areas of land and associated assets and economic activity, the displacement of millions of people, and significant coastal habitat degradation. However, adaptation can greatly reduce these impacts and promote prosperous and desirable coasts. Adaptation measures can be characterized as (1) protect, (2) accommodate, or (3) retreat approaches. The provision of information measures such as warnings is improving significantly, while novel methods such as ecosystem-based approaches are attracting interest. Adaptation to sea-level rise should be viewed as a process that requires an integrated coastal management philosophy to be consistent with wider coastal activities and other stresses. Hence, in addition to technical skills, adaptation requires an appropriate institutional capacity. The success or failure of measures of adaptation, especially protection, is contested and this influences our view of sea-level rise as a problem. Adaptation can be best analyzed in the context of understanding the coastal system that includes the effects of all drivers, including sea-level rise, their interactions, and feedbacks: these types of analyses are only just beginning. Some proactive adaptation plans are already being formulated, such as around London and in the Netherlands. Coastal cities will be a major focus for adaptation efforts due to their concentrations of people and assets. However, there are important challenges for adaptation in developing countries, most especially in deltaic areas and small islands.},
address = {Boston, MA, USA},
author = {Nicholls, Robert J},
booktitle = {Coastal and Marine Hazards, Risks, and Disasters},
doi = {10.1016/B978-0-12-396483-0.00009-1},
editor = {Shroder, John F and Ellis, Jean T and Sherman, Douglas J},
isbn = {978-0-12-396483-0},
keywords = {Accommodation,Adaptation,Coasts,Protection,Retreat},
pages = {243--270},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Chapter 9 – Adapting to Sea Level Rise}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123964830000091},
year = {2015}
}
@article{2020Natur.577..514N,
author = {Nienhuis, J. H. and Ashton, A. D. and Edmonds, D. A. and Hoitink, A. J. F. and Kettner, A. J. and Rowland, J. C. and T{\"{o}}rnqvist, T. E.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1905-9},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7791},
pages = {514--518},
title = {{Global-scale human impact on delta morphology has led to net land area gain}},
volume = {577},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Nik2020,
abstract = {Climate change and increased urban population are two major concerns for society. Moving towards more sustainable energy solutions in the urban context by integrating renewable energy technologies supports decarbonizing the energy sector and climate change mitigation. A successful transition also needs adequate consideration of climate change including extreme events to ensure the reliable performance of energy systems in the long run. This review provides an overview of and insight into the progress achieved in the energy sector to adapt to climate change, focusing on the climate resilience of urban energy systems. The state-of-the-art methodology to assess impacts of climate change including extreme events and uncertainties on the design and performance of energy systems is described and discussed. Climate resilience is an emerging concept that is increasingly used to represent the durability and stable performance of energy systems against extreme climate events. However, it has not yet been adequately explored and widely used, as its definition has not been clearly articulated and assessment is mostly based on qualitative aspects. This study reveals that a major limitation in the state-of-the-art is the inadequacy of climate change adaptation approaches in designing and preparing urban energy systems to satisfactorily address plausible extreme climate events. Furthermore, the complexity of the climate and energy models and the mismatch between their temporal and spatial resolutions are the major limitations in linking these models. Therefore, few studies have focused on the design and operation of urban energy infrastructure in terms of climate resilience. Considering the occurrence of extreme climate events and increasing demand for implementing climate adaptation strategies, the study highlights the importance of improving energy system models to consider future climate variations including extreme events to identify climate resilient energy transition pathways.},
author = {Nik, Vahid M and Perera, A T D and Chen, Deliang},
doi = {10.1093/nsr/nwaa134},
issn = {2095-5138},
journal = {National Science Review},
keywords = {climate change adaptation,climate resilience,decentralized generation,extreme events,renewable energy,urban energy systems},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {nwaa134},
title = {{Towards climate resilient urban energy systems: a review}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa134/5857668},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Nikulin2018,
abstract = {There is a general lack of information about the potential effects of 1.5, 2 or more degrees of global warming on the regional climates within Africa, and most studies that address this use data from coarse resolution global models. Using a large ensemble of CORDEX Africa simulations, we present a pan-African overview of the effects of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming levels (GWLs) on the African climate. The CORDEX simulations, consistent with their driving global models, show a robust regional warming exceeding the mean global one over most of Africa. The highest increase in annual mean temperature is found over the subtropics and the smallest one over many coastal regions. Projected changes in annual mean precipitation have a tendency to wetter conditions in some parts of Africa (e.g. central/eastern Sahel and eastern Africa) at both GWLs, but models' agreement on the sign of change is low. In contrast to mean precipitation, there is a consistent increase in daily precipitation intensity of wet days over a large fraction of tropical Africa emerging already at 1.5 °C GWL and strengthening at 2 °C. A consistent difference between 2 °C and 1.5 °C warmings is also found for projected changes in annual mean temperature and daily precipitation intensity. Our study indicates that a 0.5 °C further warming (from 1.5 °C–2 °C) can indeed produce a robust change in some aspects of the African climate and its extremes.},
author = {Nikulin, Grigory and Lennard, Chris and Dosio, Alessandro and Kjellstr{\"{o}}m, Erik and Chen, Youmin and H{\"{a}}nsler, Andreas and Kupiainen, Marco and Laprise, Ren{\'{e}} and Mariotti, Laura and Maule, Cathrine Fox and van Meijgaard, Erik and Panitz, Hans-J{\"{u}}rgen and Scinocca, John F and Somot, Samuel},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab1b1},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {065003},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=6/a=065003?key=crossref.8ee30d517a6b08b5c70ae7a59717d7fe},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ning2015,
abstract = {Changes of snow occurrence across the central and eastern United States under future warming for the late 21(st) century are investigated by applying an empirical hyperbolic tangent function to both observed and downscaled high spatial resolution ({\~{}}12.5 km) daily temperature and precipitation, to compare the historical (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) snow occurrence. The observed distributions of snow frequency show that snow-rain transition zones are mainly zonally distributed, since they are largely determined by temperature, with slight shifts to the south over the Appalachian Mountains. The snow-rain transition zone is located around 38-46°N for November and March, and 32-42°N for winter months (DJF). These observed patterns are reproduced well for the historical period by an ensemble average of multiple general circulation models (GCMs). The probabilistic projections show that the snow-rain transition zone will shift to the north under the background of global warming at magnitudes of 2-6 °C, indicating that large areas will experience a partial, or even a very large, loss of snow occurrence in the future. The northward shifts are about 2° latitude under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and 4° latitude under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentages of the area losing snow occurrence are also assessed.},
author = {Ning, Liang and Bradley, Raymond S},
doi = {10.1038/srep17073},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific reports},
month = {nov},
pages = {17073},
pmid = {26584522},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Snow occurrence changes over the central and eastern United States under future warming scenarios.}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26584522 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC4653631},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Nissan2019,
abstract = {Climate resilience is increasingly prioritized by international development agencies and national governments. However, current approaches to informing communities of future climate risk are problematic. The predominant focus on end‐of‐century projections neglects more pressing development concerns, which relate to the management of shorter‐term risks and climate variability, and constitutes a substantial opportunity cost for the limited financial and human resources available to tackle development challenges. When a long‐term view genuinely is relevant to decision‐making, much of the information available is not fit for purpose. Climate model projections are able to capture many aspects of the climate system and so can be relied upon to guide mitigation plans and broad adaptation strategies, but the use of these models to guide local, practical adaptation actions is unwarranted. Climate models are unable to represent future conditions at the degree of spatial, temporal, and probabilistic precision with which projections are often provided, which gives a false impression of confidence to users of climate change information. In this article, we outline these issues, review their history, and provide a set of practical steps for both the development and climate scientist communities to consider. Solutions to mobilize the best available science include a focus on decision‐relevant timescales, an increased role for model evaluation and expert judgment and the integration of climate variability into climate change services.},
author = {Nissan, Hannah and Goddard, Lisa and de Perez, Erin Coughlan and Furlow, John and Baethgen, Walter and Thomson, Madeleine C. and Mason, Simon J},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.579},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {e579},
title = {{On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.579 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.579},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Nissen2014,
abstract = {Changes in the frequency and intensity of cyclones and associated windstorms affecting the Mediterranean region simulated under enhanced Greenhouse Gas forcing conditions are investigated. The analysis is based on 7 climate model integrations performed with two coupled global models (ECHAM5 MPIOM and INGV CMCC), comparing the end of the twentieth century and at least the first half of the twenty-first century. As one of the models has a considerably enhanced resolution of the atmosphere and the ocean, it is also investigated whether the climate change signals are influenced by the model resolution. While the higher resolved simulation is closer to reanalysis climatology, both in terms of cyclones and windstorm distributions, there is no evidence for an influence of the resolution on the sign of the climate change signal. All model simulations show a reduction in the total number of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region under climate change conditions. Exceptions are Morocco and the Levant region, where the models predict an increase in the number of cyclones. The reduction is especially strong for intense cyclones in terms of their Laplacian of pressure. The influence of the simulated positive shift in the NAO Index on the cyclone decrease is restricted to the Western Mediterranean region, where it explains 10–50 {\%} of the simulated trend, depending on the individual simulation. With respect to windstorms, decreases are simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. This overall reduction is due to a decrease in the number of events associated with local cyclones, while the number of events associated with cyclones outside of the Mediterranean region slightly increases. These systems are, however, less intense in terms of their integrated severity over the Mediterranean area, as they mostly affect the fringes of the region. In spite of the general reduction in total numbers, several cyclones and windstorms of intensity unknown under current climate conditions are identified for the scenario simulations. For these events, no common trend exists in the individual simulations. Thus, they may rather be attributed to long-term (e.g. decadal) variability than to the Greenhouse Gas forcing. Nevertheless, the result indicates that high-impact weather systems will remain an important risk in the Mediterranean Basin.},
author = {Nissen, Katrin M. and Leckebusch, Gregor C. and Pinto, Joaquim G. and Ulbrich, Uwe},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-012-0400-8},
isbn = {1436-3798},
issn = {1436378X},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Cyclones,Mediterranean,Windstorms},
number = {5},
pages = {1873--1890},
title = {{Mediterranean cyclones and windstorms in a changing climate}},
volume = {14},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Nka20154707,
annote = {cited By 12},
author = {Nka, B N and Oudin, L and Karambiri, H and Paturel, J E and Ribstein, P},
doi = {10.5194/hess-19-4707-2015},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {11},
pages = {4707--4719},
title = {{Trends in floods in West Africa: Analysis based on 11 catchments in the region}},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84949035493{\&}doi=10.5194{\%}2Fhess-19-4707-2015{\&}partnerID=40{\&}md5=86ed72528cdd3720d284df7544f3a097},
volume = {19},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Noetzli2019,
author = {Noetzli, J. and Biskaborn, B. K. and Christiansen, H. H. and Isaksen, K. and Schoeneich, P. and Smith, S. and Vieira, G. and Zhao, L. and Streletskiy, D. A.},
doi = {10.1175/2019BAMSStateoftheClimate.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {S21--22},
title = {{Permafrost thermal state [in “State of the Climate in 2018”]}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/9/2019bamsstateoftheclimate.1.xml},
volume = {100},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Norby2010,
abstract = {Stimulation of terrestrial plant production by rising CO(2) concentration is projected to reduce the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models are sensitive to this negative feedback on atmospheric CO(2), but model projections are uncertain because of the expectation that feedbacks through the nitrogen (N) cycle will reduce this so-called CO(2) fertilization effect. We assessed whether N limitation caused a reduced stimulation of net primary productivity (NPP) by elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentration over 11 y in a free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) experiment in a deciduous Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum) forest stand in Tennessee. During the first 6 y of the experiment, NPP was significantly enhanced in forest plots exposed to 550 ppm CO(2) compared with NPP in plots in current ambient CO(2), and this was a consistent and sustained response. However, the enhancement of NPP under elevated CO(2) declined from 24{\%} in 2001-2003 to 9{\%} in 2008. Global analyses that assume a sustained CO(2) fertilization effect are no longer supported by this FACE experiment. N budget analysis supports the premise that N availability was limiting to tree growth and declining over time--an expected consequence of stand development, which was exacerbated by elevated CO(2). Leaf- and stand-level observations provide mechanistic evidence that declining N availability constrained the tree response to elevated CO(2); these observations are consistent with stand-level model projections. This FACE experiment provides strong rationale and process understanding for incorporating N limitation and N feedback effects in ecosystem and global models used in climate change assessments.},
author = {Norby, Richard J and Warren, Jeffrey M and Iversen, Colleen M and Medlyn, Belinda E and McMurtrie, Ross E},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1006463107},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {45},
pages = {19368--19373},
pmid = {20974944},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{CO2 enhancement of forest productivity constrained by limited nitrogen availability}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20974944 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC2984154 http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1006463107},
volume = {107},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Notaro2015a,
abstract = {Abstract The Arabian Peninsula has experienced pronounced interannual to decadal variability in dust activity, including an abrupt regime shift around 2006 from an inactive dust period during 1998?2005 to an active period during 2007?2013. Corresponding in time to the onset of this regime shift, the climate state transitioned into a combined La Ni{\~{n}}a and negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which incited a hiatus in global warming in the 2000s. Superimposed upon a long-term regional drying trend, synergistic interactions between these teleconnection modes triggered the establishment of a devastating and prolonged drought, which engulfed the Fertile Crescent, namely, Iraq and Syria, and led to crop failure and civil unrest. Dried soils and diminished vegetation cover in the Fertile Crescent, as evident through remotely sensed enhanced vegetation indices, supported greater dust generation and transport to the Arabian Peninsula in 2007?2013, as identified both in increased dust days observed at weather stations and enhanced remotely sensed aerosol optical depth. According to backward trajectory analysis of dust days on the Arabian Peninsula, increased dust lifting and atmospheric dust concentration in the Fertile Crescent during this recent, prolonged drought episode supported a greater frequency of dust events across the peninsula with associated northerly trajectories and led to the dust regime shift. These findings are particularly concerning, considering projections of warming and drying for the eastern Mediterranean region and potential collapse of the Fertile Crescent during this century.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023855},
author = {Notaro, Michael and Yu, Yan and Kalashnikova, Olga V},
doi = {10.1002/2015JD023855},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Arabian Peninsula,Fertile Crescent,aerosol optical depth,drought,dust storms,trajectories},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {10229--10249},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Regime shift in Arabian dust activity, triggered by persistent Fertile Crescent drought}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023855 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015JD023855},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Notz2020a,
abstract = {We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multi‐model ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area {\textless} 1 million km²) in September for the first time before the year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.},
author = {Notz, Dirk and {SIMIP Community}},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL086749},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Arctic,CMIP6,climate models,model evaluation,sea ice},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {e2019GL086749},
title = {{Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL086749 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL086749},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Nourani2017,
abstract = {Migratory birds can be adversely affected by climate change as they encounter its geographically uneven impacts in various stages of their life cycle. While a wealth of research is devoted to the impacts of climate change on distribution range and phenology of migratory birds, the indirect effects of climate change on optimal migratory routes and flyways, through changes in air movements, are poorly understood. Here,we predict the influence of climate change on the migratory route of a long-distant migrant using an ensemble of correlative modelling approaches, and present and future atmospheric data obtained from a regional climate model. We show that changes in wind conditions by mid-century will result in a slight shift and reduction in the suitable areas for migration of the study species, the Oriental honey-buzzard, over a critical section of its autumn journey, followed by a complete loss of this section of the traditional route by late century. Our results highlight the need for investigating the consequences of climate change-induced disturbance in wind support for long-distance migratory birds, particularly species that depend on the wind to cross ecological barriers, and those that will be exposed to longer journeys due to future range shifts.},
author = {Nourani, Elham and Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M. and Higuchi, Hiroyoshi},
doi = {10.1098/rspb.2017.0149},
issn = {14712954},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
keywords = {Crested honey-buzzard,Ensemble forecasting,Flyway,Niche modelling,Optimal route,Regional climate model},
month = {may},
number = {1854},
pages = {20170149},
publisher = {Royal Society Publishing},
title = {{Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant}},
volume = {284},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Nowreen2015,
author = {Nowreen, Sara and Murshed, Sonia Binte and Islam, A K M Saiful and Bhaskaran, B and Hasan, Mohammad Alfi},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-014-1101-7},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {363--377},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Changes of rainfall extremes around the haor basin areas of Bangladesh using multi-member ensemble RCM}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-014-1101-7},
volume = {119},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{Nurse2014,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Nurse, Leonard A. and McLean, Roger F. and Agard, John and {Pascal Briguglio}, Lino and Duvat-Magnan, Virginie and Pelesikoti, Netatua and Tompkins, Emma and Webb, Arthur},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415386.009},
editor = {Barros, V.R. and Field, C.B. and Dokken, D.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Mach, K.J. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058163},
pages = {1613--1654},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Small Islands}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Nyangiwe2018,
abstract = {Ticks are the most important external parasites of cattle and are known to transmit more pathogens than any other group of arthropods worldwide. About 80{\%} of the world cattle population is at risk of ticks and tick-borne diseases, causing a global annual loss of {\$}US22–30 billion. In Africa, the impact of ticks is ranked high, and they transmit diseases such as cowdriosis, anaplasmosis, bovine babesiosis and theileriosis. A range expansion of ixodid ticks has been observed in Africa, in particular for the genera Amblyomma and Rhipicephalus, which contribute greatly to cattle loss owing to morbidity and mortality. Distributional changes in ticks can lead to the emergence or re-emergence of infectious and parasitic diseases. Climate change is frequently invoked as the primary cause of tick distribution, but it is not the only factor. Human lifestyle changes, including transportation of livestock within countries, have promoted the introduction of new tick species and the diseases they transmit. One such example is the spread of the Asian cattle tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus to West Africa. Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus was recorded for the first time in Namibia and was probably introduced into Namibia from South Africa. Likewise, Amblyomma variegatum, the vector of heartwater disease, has the largest distribution in Africa. Its spread is outside its native range and it is considered the second most invasive tick species after R. (B.) microplus on the continent. Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus is a one-host tick that is reported to be resistant to conventional acaricides and this contributes largely to its spread into non-endemic areas.},
author = {Nyangiwe, N and Yawa, M and Muchenje, V},
doi = {10.4314/sajas.v48i5.4},
issn = {2221-4062},
journal = {South African Journal of Animal Science},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {829},
publisher = {African Journals Online (AJOL)},
title = {{Driving forces for changes in geographic range of cattle ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) in Africa: A review}},
url = {https://www.ajol.info/index.php/sajas/article/view/178305},
volume = {48},
year = {2018}
}
@article{OGorman2014,
abstract = {In many regions, a warming climate may lead to large decreases in annual snowfall while having a much weaker effect on the intensities of the heaviest snowfall events — those that can be most disruptive to urban infrastructure.},
author = {O'Gorman, Paul A.},
doi = {10.1038/nature13625},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Atmospheric science},
month = {aug},
number = {7515},
pages = {416--418},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature13625},
volume = {512},
year = {2014}
}
@article{OGrady2019,
abstract = {Empirical equations for wave breaking and wave setup are compared with archived shoreline wave setup measurements to investigate the contribution of wind waves to extreme Mean Total Water Levels (MTWL, the mean height of the shoreline), for natural beaches exposed to open ocean wind waves. A broad range of formulations is compared through linear regression and quantile regression analysis of the highest measured values. Shoreline wave setup equations are selected based on the availability of local beach slope data and the ability of the quantile regression to show a good representation of the highest measured levels. Wave parameters from an existing spectral wave hindcast are used as input to the selected equations and are combined with a storm tide time series to quantify the relative contribution of shoreline wave setup to the extreme MTWL climate along Australian beaches. A multipass analysis is provided to understand the ability to capture the shoreline wave setup estimates with and without considering beach slope. The national scale analysis which does not include beach slope indicates there are multiple contributing factors to MTWL. Examples are provided at two locations of differing local beach slope to show the importance of including local beach slope in determining the contribution of waves to MTWL. A tool is in development for further investigation of wave setup for Australian beaches.},
author = {O'Grady, J. G. and McInnes, K. L. and Hemer, M. A. and Hoeke, R. K. and Stephenson, A. G. and Colberg, F.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JC014871},
issn = {21699291},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
keywords = {empirical regression analysis,extreme water level,hindcast,mean total water level,shoreline wave setup},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {5468--5484},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Extreme Water Levels for Australian Beaches Using Empirical Equations for Shoreline Wave Setup}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JC014871},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{OLoingsigh2014,
abstract = {Wind erosion of soils is a natural process that has shaped the semi-arid and arid landscapes for millennia. This paper describes the Dust Storm Index (DSI); a methodology for monitoring wind erosion using Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) meheronteorological observational data since the mid-1960s (long-term), at continental scale. While the 46. year length of the DSI record is its greatest strength from a wind erosion monitoring perspective, there are a number of technical challenges to its use because when the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recording protocols were established the use of the data for wind erosion monitoring was never intended. Data recording and storage protocols are examined, including the effects of changes to the definition of how observers should interpret and record dust events. A method is described for selecting the 180 long-term ABM stations used in this study and the limitations of variable observation frequencies between stations are in part resolved. The rationale behind the DSI equation is explained and the examples of temporal and spatial data visualisation products presented include; a long term national wind erosion record (1965-2011), continental DSI maps, and maps of the erosion event types that are factored into the DSI equation. The DSI is tested against dust concentration data and found to provide an accurate representation of wind erosion activity. As the ABM observational records used here were collected according to WMO protocols, the DSI methodology could be used in all countries with WMO-compatible meteorological observation and recording systems. {\textcopyright} 2013.},
author = {O'Loingsigh, T. and McTainsh, G. H. and Tews, E. K. and Strong, C. L. and Leys, J. F. and Shinkfield, P. and Tapper, N. J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.aeolia.2013.10.004},
isbn = {1875-9637},
issn = {18759637},
journal = {Aeolian Research},
keywords = {Dust storms,Meteorological records,Wind erosion},
pages = {29--40},
title = {{The Dust Storm Index (DSI): A method for monitoring broadscale wind erosion using meteorological records}},
volume = {12},
year = {2014}
}
@article{ONeill2018,
abstract = {Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 {\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 {\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.},
author = {O'Neill, Brian C. and {M. Done}, James and Gettelman, Andrew and Lawrence, Peter and Lehner, Flavio and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Lin, Lei and {J. Monaghan}, Andrew and Oleson, Keith and Ren, Xiaolin and {M. Sanderson}, Benjamin and Tebaldi, Claudia and Weitzel, Matthias and Xu, Yangyang and Anderson, Brooke and Fix, Miranda J. and Levis, Samuel},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {287--301},
title = {{The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): a synthesis}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x},
volume = {146},
year = {2018}
}
@article{ONeill2017b,
abstract = {The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary climate change metrics to global mean temperature change and better account for possible changes in social and ecological system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios of future climatic and societal conditions.},
author = {O'Neill, Brian C. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Warren, Rachel and Hallegatte, Stephane and Kopp, Robert E. and P{\"{o}}rtner, Hans O. and Scholes, Robert and Birkmann, Joern and Foden, Wendy and Licker, Rachel and Mach, Katharine J. and Marbaix, Phillippe and Mastrandrea, Michael D. and Price, Jeff and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal and Yohe, Gary},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3179},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {28--37},
title = {{IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3179},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{OReilly2015,
abstract = {Abstract In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean?=?0.34°C decade?1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors?from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade?1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade?1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/2015GL066235},
author = {O'Reilly, Catherine M and Sharma, Sapna and Gray, Derek K and Hampton, Stephanie E and Read, Jordan S and Rowley, Rex J and Schneider, Philipp and Lenters, John D and McIntyre, Peter B and Kraemer, Benjamin M and Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A and Straile, Dietmar and Dong, Bo and Adrian, Rita and Allan, Mathew G and Anneville, Orlane and Arvola, Lauri and Austin, Jay and Bailey, John L and Baron, Jill S and Brookes, Justin D and de Eyto, Elvira and Dokulil, Martin T and Hamilton, David P and Havens, Karl and Hetherington, Amy L and Higgins, Scott N and Hook, Simon and Izmest'eva, Lyubov R and Joehnk, Klaus D and Kangur, Kulli and Kasprzak, Peter and Kumagai, Michio and Kuusisto, Esko and Leshkevich, George and Livingstone, David M and MacIntyre, Sally and May, Linda and Melack, John M and Mueller-Navarra, Doerthe C and Naumenko, Mikhail and Noges, Peeter and Noges, Tiina and North, Ryan P and Plisnier, Pierre-Denis and Rigosi, Anna and Rimmer, Alon and Rogora, Michela and Rudstam, Lars G and Rusak, James A and Salmaso, Nico and Samal, Nihar R and Schindler, Daniel E and Schladow, S Geoffrey and Schmid, Martin and Schmidt, Silke R and Silow, Eugene and Soylu, M Evren and Teubner, Katrin and Verburg, Piet and Voutilainen, Ari and Watkinson, Andrew and Williamson, Craig E and Zhang, Guoqing},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL066235},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,lakes,temperature},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {10773--10781},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066235},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Ogden2017,
author = {Ogden, Nicholas H.},
doi = {10.1093/femsle/fnx186},
issn = {1574-6968},
journal = {FEMS Microbiology Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {fnx186},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {{Climate change and vector-borne diseases of public health significance}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/femsle/article/doi/10.1093/femsle/fnx186/4107775},
volume = {364},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ohba2019,
author = {Ohba, Masamichi},
doi = {10.3390/atmos10050265},
journal = {Atmosphere},
number = {5},
pages = {265},
title = {{The Impact of Global Warming on Wind Energy Resources and Ramp Events in Japan}},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ohba2020a,
abstract = {Wet snow is a primary cause of atmospheric icing, which can lead to severe damage to power towers and lines, resulting in electrical breakdowns and blackouts. This study investigates the influence of climate change on heavy wet snowfall events in Japan by using climate projections obtained from the database for policy decision-making for future climate change (d4PDF). The projected future climate in the regional model simulations shows nonuniform spatial distribution of wet snowfall. The increases in the risk of extreme wet snowfall are found over northern part of Japan Alps (mountainous regions in central Japan) and Hokkaido (northern part of Japan). Self-organizing maps (SOMs) are applied using the surface atmospheric circulation to explore the weather patterns (WPs) associated with changes in heavy wet snowfall. The SOMs show that some WPs have a significant effect on the magnitude, frequency, and location of heavy wet snowfall in Japan. Additionally, the impact of climate forcing on WPs associated with heavy wet snowfall is evaluated to understand the spatially heterogeneous changes in wet snowfall. The SOM analysis results suggest that the future changes in spatially heterogeneous extreme wet snowfall can be attributed to differences in WP responses to climate change. These differences can be attributed to the future variations in the region of the atmospheric layer at temperatures near 0 °C (rain–snow transition layer) among WPs, which can alter the spatial distribution and frequency of heavy wet snowfall. The findings can help inform structural design requirements to withstand regional climate change.},
author = {Ohba, Masamichi and Sugimoto, Soichiro},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05163-z},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {5},
pages = {3151--3164},
title = {{Impacts of climate change on heavy wet snowfall in Japan}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05163-z},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Olazabal2018,
abstract = {Decision-making for climate change adaptation requires an integrated and cross-sectoral approach to adequately capture the complexity of interconnected systems. More meaningful decisions can be taken in an arena where different agents provide knowledge of specific domains. This paper uses a semi-quantitative method based on cognitive mapping to demonstrate how new knowledge emerges when combining knowledge from diverse agents. For the case of heatwaves in the city of Madrid (Spain) we elicit knowledge about climatic impacts across urban sectors and potential adaptation options. Knowledge is elicited in individual interviews and then aggregated using fuzzy cognitive maps. We observe that the individual maps vary considerably in size and structure and find evidence of diverse and even contradictory perceptions. There is no “super-stakeholder”, who theoretically could provide full knowledge about mechanisms operating in this urban system: the maximum percentage of the final aggregated map explained by a single individual is 26{\%} in terms of concepts and 13{\%} in terms of connections. We illustrate how the emergence of new knowledge can be sustained by combining scientific and policy expertise. Our approach supports knowledge co-production and allows to account for the interconnectedness of urban sectors under climatic impacts in view of formulating more robust adaptation strategies.},
author = {Olazabal, Marta and Chiabai, Aline and Foudi, S{\'{e}}bastien and Neumann, Marc B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.01.017},
issn = {18736416},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Policy},
keywords = {Climate change adaptation,Decision-making,Fuzzy cognitive mapping,Knowledge co-production,Systems approach},
month = {may},
pages = {46--53},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Emergence of new knowledge for climate change adaptation}},
volume = {83},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Oleson2018,
abstract = {Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981–2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1 °C (southeast) to 4.6 °C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981–2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50 {\%}. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981–2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981–2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5.},
author = {Oleson, K. W. and Anderson, G. B. and Jones, B. and McGinnis, S. A. and Sanderson, B.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1504-1},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {377--392},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-015-1504-1},
volume = {146},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Oliver2018b,
abstract = {Heatwaves are important climatic extremes in atmospheric and oceanic systems that can have devastating and long-term impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Recent prominent marine heatwaves have attracted considerable scientific and public interest. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of how these ocean temperature extremes have been changing globally is missing. Using a range of ocean temperature data including global records of daily satellite observations, daily in situ measurements and gridded monthly in situ-based data sets, we identify significant increases in marine heatwaves over the past century. We find that from 1925 to 2016, global average marine heatwave frequency and duration increased by 34{\%} and 17{\%}, respectively, resulting in a 54{\%} increase in annual marine heatwave days globally. Importantly, these trends can largely be explained by increases in mean ocean temperatures, suggesting that we can expect further increases in marine heatwave days under continued global warming.},
author = {Oliver, Eric C.J. and Donat, Markus G. and Burrows, Michael T. and Moore, Pippa J. and Smale, Dan A. and Alexander, Lisa V. and Benthuysen, Jessica A. and Feng, Ming and {Sen Gupta}, Alex and Hobday, Alistair J. and Holbrook, Neil J. and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E. and Scannell, Hillary A. and Straub, Sandra C. and Wernberg, Thomas},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9},
isbn = {2041-1723},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Natural hazards,Physical oceanography},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1324},
pmid = {29636482},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03732-9 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Olson2002,
abstract = {[A global strategy to conserve biodiversity must aim to protect representative examples of all of the world's ecosystems, as well as those areas that contain exceptional concentrations of species and endemics. Although lacking the richness of tropical forests, deserts, tropical lakes, and subpolar seas all contain distinct species, communities, and ecological phenomena. We analyzed global patterns of biodiversity to identify a set of the Earth's terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecoregions that harbor exceptional biodiversity and are representative of its ecosystems. We placed each of the Earth's ecoregions within a system of 30 biomes and biogeographic realms to facilitate a representation analysis. Biodiversity features were compared among ecoregions to assess their irreplaceability or distinctiveness. These features included species richness, endemic species, unusual higher taxa, unusual ecological or evolutionary phenomena, and the global rarity of habitats. This process yielded 238 ecoregions-the Global 200-comprised of 142 terrestrial, 53 freshwater, and 43 marine priority ecoregions. Effective conservation in this set of ecoregions would help conserve the most outstanding and representative habitats for biodiversity on this planet.]},
author = {Olson, David M and Dinerstein, Eric},
doi = {10.2307/3298564},
issn = {00266493},
journal = {Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden},
number = {2},
pages = {199--224},
publisher = {Missouri Botanical Garden Press},
title = {{The Global 200: Priority Ecoregions for Global Conservation}},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/3298564},
volume = {89},
year = {2002}
}
@incollection{Olsson2019,
author = {Olsson, L. and Barbosa, H. and Bhadwal, S. and Cowie, A. and Delusca, K. and Flores-Renteria, D. and Hermans, K. and Jobbagy, E. and Kurz, W. and Li, D. and Sonwa, D.J. and Stringe, L.},
booktitle = {Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems},
chapter = {4},
editor = {Shukla, P.R. and Skea, J. and Buendia, E. Calvo and Masson-Delmotte, V. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. C. and Zhai, P. and Slade, R. and Connors, S. and van Diemen, R. and Ferrat, M. and Haughey, E. and Luz, S. and Neogi, S. and Pathak, M. and Petzold, J. and Pereira, J. Portugal and Vyas, P. and Huntley, E. and Kissick, K. and Belkacemi, M. and Malley, J.},
pages = {345--436},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Land Degradation}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-4},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Oppenheimer2019,
author = {Oppenheimer, M. and Glavovic, B.C. and Hinkel, J. and van de Wal, R. and Magnan, A.K. and Abd-Elgawad, A. and Cai, R. and Cifuentes-Jara, M. and DeConto, R.M. and Ghosh, T. and Hay, J. and Isla, F. and Marzeion, B. and Meyssignac, B. and Sebesvari, Z.},
booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
pages = {321--446},
publisher = {In Press},
title = {{Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Orlov2019,
abstract = {European countries have experienced strong heat waves over the last two decades. The frequency and magnitude of such extreme weather events are expected to increase in the near future. Using an interdisciplinary approach, which combines meteorological, epidemiological and economic analyses, we assess the cost of heat-induced reductions in outdoor worker productivity in Europe caused by the heat waves in August of 2003, July of 2010, and July of 2015. We found that for the top ten most affected European countries, average direct economic losses in agriculture accounted for {\$}59–90 per worker and for construction, it was {\$}41–72 per worker. Direct economic losses were especially high in countries, such as Cyprus, Italy, and Spain. Social costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity in agriculture and construction account for an average of {\$}2–3 per capita.},
author = {Orlov, Anton and Sillmann, Jana and Aaheim, Asbj{\o}rn and Aunan, Kristin and de Bruin, Karianne},
doi = {10.1007/s41885-019-00044-0},
issn = {2511-1280},
journal = {Economics of Disasters and Climate Change},
month = {oct},
number = {3},
pages = {191--211},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
title = {{Economic Losses of Heat-Induced Reductions in Outdoor Worker Productivity: a Case Study of Europe}},
volume = {3},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Orr2018,
abstract = {Wind-driven rain (WDR) is rain given a horizontal velocity component by wind and falling obliquely. It is a prominent environmental risk to built heritage, as it contributes to the damage of porous building materials and building element failure. While predicted climate trends are well-established, how they will specifically manifest in future WDR is uncertain. This paper combines UKCP09 Weather Generator predictions with a probabilistic process to create hourly time series of climate parameters under a high-emissions scenario for 2070–2099 at eight UK sites. Exposure to WDR at these sites for baseline and future periods is calculated from semi-empirical models based on long-term hourly meteorological data using ISO 15927-3:2009. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, it is predicted that rain spells will have higher volumes, i.e. a higher quantity of water will impact fa{\c{c}}ades, across all 8 sites. Although the average number of spells is predicted to remain constant, they will be shorter with longer of periods of time between them and more intense with wind-driven rain occurring for a greater proportion of hours within them. It is likely that in this scenario building element failure – such as moisture ingress through cracks and gutter over-spill – will occur more frequently. There will be higher rates of moisture cycling and enhanced deep-seated wetting. These predicted changes require new metrics for wind-driven rain to be developed, so that future impacts can be managed effectively and efficiently.},
author = {Orr, Scott Allan and Young, Maureen and Stelfox, Dawson and Curran, Joanne and Viles, Heather},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.354},
issn = {18791026},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
keywords = {Building performance,Climate change,Heritage conservation,Risk assessment,Sustainability,building moisture},
month = {nov},
pages = {1098--1111},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Wind-driven rain and future risk to built heritage in the United Kingdom: Novel metrics for characterising rain spells}},
volume = {640-641},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Orru2017a,
abstract = {Purpose of Review: Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Recent Findings: Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. Summary: This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.},
author = {Orru, H. and Ebi, K. L. and Forsberg, B.},
doi = {10.1007/s40572-017-0168-6},
issn = {21965412},
journal = {Current environmental health reports},
keywords = {Climate scenarios,Dispersion,Emission,Fine particles,Ozone,Uncertainty},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {504--513},
pmid = {29080073},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40572-017-0168-6},
volume = {4},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Osland2013,
author = {Osland, Michael J. and Enwright, Nicholas and Day, Richard H. and Doyle, Thomas W.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.12126},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Avicennia germinans,coastal wetlands,ecological thresholds,extreme events,foundation species,mangrove forest,range expansion,salt marsh,vulnerability assessment,winter climate change},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {1482--1494},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.12126},
volume = {19},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Osuch2017,
abstract = {The aim of this study is to estimate likely changes in flood indices under a future climate and to assess the uncertainty in these estimates for selected catchments in Poland. Precipitation and temperature time series from climate simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative for the periods 1971–2000, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios have been used to produce hydrological simulations based on the HBV hydrological model. As the climate model outputs for Poland are highly biased, post processing in the form of bias correction was first performed so that the climate time series could be applied in hydrological simulations at a catchment-scale. The results indicate that bias correction significantly improves flow simulations and estimated flood indices based on comparisons with simulations from observed climate data for the control period. The estimated changes in the mean annual flood and in flood quantiles under a future climate indicate a large spread in the estimates both within and between the catchments. An ANOVA analysis was used to assess the relative contributions of the 2 emission scenarios, the 7 climate models and the 4 bias correction methods to the total spread in the projected changes in extreme river flow indices for each catchment. The analysis indicates that the differences between climate models generally make the largest contribution to the spread in the ensemble of the three factors considered. The results for bias corrected data show small differences between the four bias correction methods considered, and, in contrast with the results for uncorrected simulations, project increases in flood indices for most catchments under a future climate.},
author = {Osuch, Marzena and Lawrence, Deborah and Meresa, Hadush K. and Napiorkowski, Jaroslaw J. and Romanowicz, Renata J.},
doi = {10.1007/s00477-016-1296-5},
issn = {14363259},
journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
keywords = {ANOVA,Bias correction,Climate change,Floods,Poland},
month = {nov},
number = {9},
pages = {2435--2457},
publisher = {Springer New York LLC},
title = {{Projected changes in flood indices in selected catchments in Poland in the 21st century}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00477-016-1296-5},
volume = {31},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Otkin2018,
abstract = {AbstractGiven the increasing use of the term “flash drought” by the media and scientific community, it is prudent to develop a consistent definition that can be used to identify these events and to understand their salient characteristics. It is generally accepted that flash droughts occur more often during the summer owing to increased evaporative demand; however, two distinct approaches have been used to identify them. The first approach focuses on their rate of intensification, whereas the second approach implicitly focuses on their duration. These conflicting notions for what constitutes a flash drought (i.e., unusually fast intensification vs short duration) introduce ambiguity that affects our ability to detect their onset, monitor their development, and understand the mechanisms that control their evolution. Here, we propose that the definition for “flash drought” should explicitly focus on its rate of intensification rather than its duration, with droughts that develop much more rapidly than norma...},
author = {Otkin, Jason A. and Svoboda, Mark and Hunt, Eric D. and Ford, Trent W. and Anderson, Martha C. and Hain, Christopher and Basara, Jeffrey B. and Otkin, Jason A. and Svoboda, Mark and Hunt, Eric D. and Ford, Trent W. and Anderson, Martha C. and Hain, Christopher and Basara, Jeffrey B.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0149.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {911--919},
title = {{Flash Droughts: A Review and Assessment of the Challenges Imposed by Rapid-Onset Droughts in the United States}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0149.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Otto2018,
author = {Otto, Friederike E L and Wolski, Piotr and Lehner, Flavio and Tebaldi, Claudia and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Hogesteeger, Sanne and Singh, Roop and Holden, Petra and Fu{\v{c}}kar, Neven S and Odoulami, Romaric C and New, Mark},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {12},
pages = {124010},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=12/a=124010?key=crossref.35ad5084aea266f5d9d87a469f223f30},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ouedraogo2018,
abstract = {Climate information is recognized as a powerful tool to reduce the effect of climate risk and uncertainty on crop production and increase the resilience and the adaptive capacity of farmers in semi-arid zones. This paper estimates farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for climate information within cowpea and sesame value chains in Northern Burkina Faso. The study used the contingent valuation method for a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for climate information. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire from 170 farmers. The study found that 63{\%} of respondents were willing to pay for climate information services (CIS) such as seasonal climate forecast (SCF), decadal climate information (10-DCI), daily climate information (1-DCI) and agro-advisories. The predicted value for the WTP was XOF 3496 for SCF, XOF 1066 for 10-DCI, XOF 1985 for 1-DCI and XOF 1628 for agro-advisories. The study also showed that several socioeconomic and motivation factors have greater influence on farmers' WTP for CIS. These included the gender, age, education of the farm head and the awareness of farm head to climate information. The outcomes of this paper should support policy makers to better design an efficient mechanism for the dissemination of climate information to improve the adaptive capacity of farmers to climate risks in Burkina Faso.},
author = {Ou{\'{e}}draogo, Mathieu and Barry, Silamana and Zougmor{\'{e}}, Robert and Partey, Samuel and Som{\'{e}}, Leopold and Baki, Gregoire},
doi = {10.3390/su10030611},
issn = {2071-1050},
journal = {Sustainability},
keywords = {West Africa,adaptation,agriculture,climate risk management},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {611},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Farmers' Willingness to Pay for Climate Information Services: Evidence from Cowpea and Sesame Producers in Northern Burkina Faso}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/3/611},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Outten2013,
abstract = {Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage ev- ery year and represent a major concern for numerous indus- tries including construction, afforestation, wind energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and fre- quency of extreme events are expected to change, and accu- rate projections of these changes will be invaluable to deci- sion makers and society as a whole. Thiswork examines four regional climate model downscalings over Europe follow- ing the SRES A1B scenario from the “ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts” project (ENSEMBLES). It investigates the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr re- turn wind is projected to change by less than 2ms−1, while the uncertainties associated with the statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the inter- model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr return wind of over 20ms−1 between two different downscalings.},
author = {Outten, S. D. and Esau, I.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-13-5163-2013},
issn = {16807316},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {10},
pages = {5163--5172},
title = {{Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models}},
volume = {13},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Oziel2017,
author = {Oziel, Laurent and Neukermans, G and Ardyna, M and Lancelot, C and Tison, J-L and Wassmann, Paul and Sirven, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Ruiz-Pino, Diana and Gascard, J-C},
doi = {10.1002/2016JC012582},
issn = {21699275},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {5121--5139},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Role for Atlantic inflows and sea ice loss on shifting phytoplankton blooms in the Barents Sea}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016JC012582},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ozturk2017a,
abstract = {This work investigated projected future changes in seasonal mean air temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm/day) climatology for the three periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, with respect to the control period of 1971–2000 for the Central Asia domain via regional climate model simulations. In order to investigate the projected changes in near future climate conditions, the Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.3.5 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) was driven by two different CMIP5 global climate models. The HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50km for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Region 8. We investigated the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.3.5 in reproducing observed climatology over the domain of the Central Asia by using two different global climate model outputs. For the future climatology of the domain, the regional model projects relatively high warming in the warm season with a decrease in precipitation in almost all parts of the domain. A warming trend is notable, especially for the northern part of the domain during the cold season. The results of our study show that surface air temperatures in the region will increase between 3°C and about 7°C on average, according to the emission scenarios for the period of 2071–2100 with respect to past period of 1971–2000. Therefore, the projected warming and decrease in precipitation might adversely affect the ecological and socio-economic systems of this region, which is already a mostly arid and semi-arid environment.},
author = {Ozturk, Tugba and Turp, M. Tufan and T{\"{u}}rkeş, Murat and Kurnaz, M. Levent},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.09.008},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
month = {jan},
pages = {296--307},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Projected changes in temperature and precipitation climatology of Central Asia CORDEX Region by using RegCM4.3.5}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809516303453 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809516303453},
volume = {183},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Portner2014a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {P{\"{o}}rtner, Hans-Otto and Karl, David M and Boyd, Philip W and Cheung, William and Lluch-Cota, Salvador E and Nojiri, Yukihiro and Schmidt, Daniela N and Zavialov, Peter O},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415379.011},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Dokken, D.J. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058071},
keywords = {adaptation,climate change impacts,vulnerability},
month = {nov},
pages = {411--484},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Ocean systems}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1,
abstract = {The occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for severe convective storms was assessed in an ensemble of 14 regional climate models covering Europe and the Mediterranean with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. These conditions included the collocated presence of latent instability and strong deep-layer (surface to 500 hPa) wind shear, which is conducive to the severe and well-organized convective storms. The occurrence of precipitation in the models was used as a proxy for convective initiation. Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were investigated by comparing two future periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100) to a historical period (1971–2000) for each of these scenarios. The ensemble simulates a robust increase (change larger than twice the ensemble sample standard deviation) in the frequency of occurrence of unstable environments (lifted index ≤ −2) across central and south-central Europe in the RCP8.5 scenario in the late twenty-first century. This increase coincides with the increase ...},
author = {P{\'{u}}{\v{c}}ik, Tom{\'{a}}{\v{s}} and Groenemeijer, Pieter and R{\"{a}}dler, Anja T. and Tijssen, Lars and Nikulin, Grigory and Prein, Andreas F. and van Meijgaard, Erik and Fealy, Rowan and Jacob, Daniela and Teichmann, Claas},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Buoyancy,Climate change,Climate models,Convective storms,Ensembles,Storm environments},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6771--6794},
title = {{Future Changes in European Severe Convection Environments in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pabon-Caicedo2020a,
abstract = {The Andes is the most biodiverse region across the globe. In addition, some of the largest urban areas in South America are located within this region. Therefore, ecosystems and human population are affected by hydroclimate changes reported at global, regional and local scales. This paper summarizes progress of knowledge about long-term trends observed during the last two millennia over the entire Andes, with more detail for the period since the second half of the 20th century, and presents a synthesis of climate change projections by the end of the 21st century. In particular, this paper focuses on temperature, precipitation and surface runoff in the Andes. Changes in the Andean cryosphere are not included here since this particular topic is discussed in other paper in this Frontiers special issue, and elsewhere (e.g. IPCC,2019b). While previous works have reviewed the hydroclimate of South America and particular sectors (i.e., Amazon and La Plata basins, the Altiplano, Northern South America, etc.) this review includes for the first time the entire Andes region, considering all latitudinal ranges: tropical (North of 27°S), subtropical (27°S−37°S) and extratropical (South of 37°S). This paper provides a comprehensive view of past and recent changes, as well as available climate change projections, over the entire Andean range. From this review, the main knowledge gaps are highlighted and urgent research necessities in order to provide more mechanistic understanding of hydroclimate changes in the Andes and more confident projections of its possible changes in association with global climate change.},
author = {Pab{\'{o}}n-Caicedo, Jos{\'{e}} Daniel and Arias, Paola A. and Carril, Andrea F. and Espinoza, Jhan Carlo and Borrel, Llu{\'{i}}s Fita and Goubanova, Katerina and Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo and Masiokas, Mariano and Solman, Silvina and Villalba, Ricardo},
doi = {10.3389/feart.2020.00061},
issn = {2296-6463},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
month = {mar},
pages = {61},
title = {{Observed and Projected Hydroclimate Changes in the Andes}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2020.00061/full},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pal2016,
abstract = {Regional climate models for the Persian (Arabian) Gulf indicate that extremes of wet-bulb temperature—a measure of temperature and humidity—may exceed a critical threshold for human tolerance with implications for the future human habitability of the region.},
author = {Pal, Jeremy S. and Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2833},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Environmental health,Projection and prediction},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {197--200},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2833 http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2833},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Palazzi2019a,
author = {Palazzi, Elisa and Mortarini, Luca and Terzago, Silvia and von Hardenberg, Jost},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4287-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {mar},
number = {5-6},
pages = {2685--2702},
title = {{Elevation-dependent warming in global climate model simulations at high spatial resolution}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4287-z},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Palko2017,
abstract = {T ransportation plays a critical role in the movement of goods and people in Canada, supporting all sectors of the economy and Canadians' quality of life. The effects of a changing climate and extreme weather present both risks and opportunities to transportation infrastructure and operations. How Canadians adapt to these changes will be important to ensure the continued prosperity of our nation. This Synthesis summarizes findings from the seven core chapters of the report Climate Risks and Adaptation Practices for the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016, and presents examples of regional climate impacts, specific modal impacts (e.g., road, rail, marine, air and urban systems), and adaptation approaches being undertaken across Canada. (References for the examples presented in this chapter appear throughout the report.)},
address = {Ottawa, ON, Canada},
author = {Palko, Kathy G},
booktitle = {Climate risks and adaptation practices for the Canadian transportation sector 2016},
editor = {Palko, K. and Lemmen, D.S.},
isbn = {978-0-660-07680-5},
pages = {12--25},
publisher = {Government of Canada},
title = {{Synthesis}},
url = {https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/climate-change/impacts-adaptations/climate-risks-adaptation-practices-canadian-transportation-sector-2016/19623},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pall2019a,
abstract = {Rain-on-snow (ROS) events are multivariate hydrometeorological phenomena that require a combination of rain and snowpack, with complex processes occurring on and within the snowpack. Impacts include floods and landslides, and rain may freeze within the snowpack or on bare ground, potentially affecting vegetation, wildlife, and permafrost. ROS events occur mainly in high-latitude and mountainous areas, where sparse observational networks hinder accurate quantification—as does a scale mismatch between coarse-resolution (50–100 km) reanalysis products and localized events. Variability in the rain–snow temperature threshold and temperature sensitivity of snowmelt adds additional uncertainty. Here the high-resolution (1 km) seNorge hydrometeorological dataset, capturing complex topography and drainage networks, is utilized to produce the first large-scale climatology of ROS events for mainland Norway. For daily data spanning 1957–2016, suitable rain and snowpack thresholds for defining ROS events are applied to construct ROS climatologies for 1961–90 and 1981–2010 and to investigate trends. Differing ROS characteristics are found, reflecting Norway's diverse climates. Relative to 1961–90, events in the 1981–2010 period decrease most in the southwest low elevations in winter, southeast in spring, and north in summer (consistent with less snow cover in a warming climate) and increase most in the southwest high elevations, central mountains, and north in winter–spring (consistent with increased precipitation and/or more snow falling as rain in a warming climate). Winter–spring events also broadly correlate with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Scandinavia pattern—and more so with the Arctic Oscillation, particularly in the southern mountain region where long-term ROS trends are significant (10.50 and 10.33 daily ROS counts per kilometer squared per decade for winter and spring).},
author = {Pall, Pardeep and Tallaksen, Lena M. and Stordal, Frode},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0529.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {6995--7016},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{A climatology of rain-on-snow events for Norway}},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Panthou2014a,
abstract = {AbstractRecent studies have examined the relationship between the intensity of extreme rainfall and temperature. Two main reasons justify this interest. First, the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere is governed by the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) equation. Second, the temperature dependence of extreme-intensity rainfalls should follow a similar relationship assuming relative humidity remains constant and extreme rainfalls are driven by the actual water content of the atmosphere. The relationship between extreme rainfall intensity and air temperature (Pextr–Ta) was assessed by analyzing maximum daily rainfall intensities for durations ranging from 5 min to 12 h for more than 100 meteorological stations across Canada. Different factors that could influence this relationship have been analyzed. It appears that the duration and the climatic region have a strong influence on this relationship. For short durations, the Pextr–Ta relationship is close to the CC scaling for coastal regions while a super-CC sca...},
author = {Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Mailhot, Alain and Laurence, Edward and Talbot, Guillaume},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-14-0020.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
keywords = {Extreme events,Rainfall,Surface temperature},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {1999--2011},
title = {{Relationship between Surface Temperature and Extreme Rainfalls: A Multi-Time-Scale and Event-Based Analysis}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0020.1},
volume = {15},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Parasiewicz2019,
author = {Parasiewicz, Piotr and King, Elise L. and Webb, J. Angus and Piniewski, Miko{\l}aj and Comoglio, Claudio and Wolter, Christian and Buijse, Anthonie D. and Bjerklie, David and Vezza, Paolo and Melcher, Andreas and Suska, Katarzyna},
doi = {10.1111/fme.12388},
issn = {0969-997X},
journal = {Fisheries Management and Ecology},
month = {dec},
number = {6},
pages = {461--473},
title = {{The role of floods and droughts on riverine ecosystems under a changing climate}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/fme.12388},
volume = {26},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Paritsis2011,
abstract = {In the temperate forests of the southern Andes, Nothofagus pumilio, the dominant species of the most extensive forest type, experiences severe defoliation caused by caterpillars of the Ormiscodes genus (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae). This study uses tree rings to reconstruct the history of Ormiscodes outbreaks for the 1850-2005 period and examines relationships between outbreaks and climate variability. We used local climate records to compare outbreak-climate relationships in the northern Patagonian Andes (c. 41 degrees S) and the cooler southern Patagonian Andes (c. 49 degrees S). We also examined relationships between outbreak events and regional climate variability driven by variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Although relationships between Ormiscodes outbreaks and climate proved to be complex, in northern Patagonia defoliation events are associated with drier and warmer than average growing seasons. Warming and drying trends in Patagonia during the latter part of the 20th century have been linked to a positive trend in SAM. During the post-1976 period of accelerated warming in Patagonia, widespread defoliation outbreaks have occurred in both northern and southern Patagonia but the increase in frequency of events has been greater in the south. In southern Patagonia the increases in frequency of outbreaks in the late 20th century appear to be unprecedented over the c. 150 year tree-ring record of reconstructed outbreaks. These results are consistent with the greater magnitude of recent warming in southern Patagonia, and suggest that under predicted warmer and drier climates in the 21st century, defoliator outbreaks may continue to increase in frequency. This study is the first systematic reconstruction of past insect outbreaks in South America and provides a preliminary understanding of how climate variability affects defoliator outbreaks in Patagonian Nothofagus forests.},
author = {Paritsis, Juan and Veblen, Thomas T.},
doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02255.x},
isbn = {1354-1013},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Climate,Defoliation,Dendroecology,ENSO,Insect outbreaks,Nothofagus pumilio,Ormiscodes amphimone,Patagonia,Southern Annular Mode},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {239--253},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{Dendroecological analysis of defoliator outbreaks on Nothofagus pumilio and their relation to climate variability in the Patagonian Andes}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02255.x},
volume = {17},
year = {2011}
}
@article{ParkWilliams2013,
abstract = {As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000–2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by thewarm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82{\%} of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization. R},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {CESB 2016-2017/drought mortality},
author = {{Park Williams}, A. and Allen, Craig D. and Macalady, Alison K. and Griffin, Daniel and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Meko, David M. and Swetnam, Thomas W. and Rauscher, Sara A. and Seager, Richard and Grissino-Mayer, Henri D. and Dean, Jeffrey S. and Cook, Edward R. and Gangodagamage, Chandana and Cai, Michael and McDowell, Nate G.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1693},
eprint = {drought mortality},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Forest ecology},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {292--297},
pmid = {20581819},
primaryClass = {CESB 2016-2017},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1693},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Parker2016,
author = {Parker, Lauren E and Abatzoglou, John T},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034001},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {034001},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Projected changes in cold hardiness zones and suitable overwinter ranges of perennial crops over the United States}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=3/a=034001?key=crossref.72e1f403cbb0548f3472ecb95ef137a9},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Parker2019a,
abstract = {Insufficient winter chill accumulation can detrimentally impact agriculture. Understanding the changing risk of insufficient chill accumulation can guide orchard management and cultivar selection for long-lived perennial crops including peaches. This study quantifies the influence of modeled anthropogenic climate change on observed chill accumulation since 1981 and projected chill accumulation through the mid-21st century, with a focus on principal peach-growing regions in the southeastern United States, and commonly grown peach cultivars with low, moderate, and high chill accumulation requirements. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced winter chill accumulation, increased the probability of winters with low chill accumulation, and increased the likelihood of winters with insufficient chill for commonly grown peach cultivars in the southeastern United States. Climate projections show a continuation of reduced chill accumulation and increased probability of winters with insufficient chill accumulation for cultivars with high chill requirements, with approximately 40{\%} of years by mid-century having insufficient chill in Georgia. The results highlight the importance of inter-annual variability in agro-climate risk assessments and suggest that adaptive measures may be necessary in order to maintain current peach production practices in the region in the coming decades.},
author = {Parker, Lauren E. and Abatzoglou, John T.},
doi = {10.3390/cli7080094},
issn = {2225-1154},
journal = {Climate},
month = {jul},
number = {8},
pages = {94},
title = {{Warming Winters Reduce Chill Accumulation for Peach Production in the Southeastern United States}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/8/94},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Parker2019,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Parker, Wendy S and Lusk, Greg},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0325.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
language = {English},
number = {9},
pages = {1643--1650},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Incorporating User Values into Climate Services}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/9/bams-d-17-0325.1.xml},
volume = {100},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Parker2018,
abstract = {Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5–10{\%} on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27{\%} for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.},
author = {Parker, Chelsea L. and Bruy{\`{e}}re, Cindy L. and Mooney, Priscilla A. and Lynch, Amanda H.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4091-9},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Australia,Climate change,Pseudo global warming technique,Tropical cyclones,Weather research and forecasting model},
month = {nov},
number = {9-10},
pages = {3467--3485},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4091-9},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{CL2014,
abstract = {Satellite data are used to determine the number of days having sea ice coverage in each year 1979–2013 and to map the trends in these ice‐season lengths. Over the majority of the Arctic seasonal sea ice zone, the ice season shortened at an average rate of at least 5 days/decade between 1979 and 2013, and in a small area in the northeastern Barents Sea the rate of shortening reached over 65 days/decade. The only substantial non‐coastal area with lengthening sea ice seasons is the Bering Sea, where the ice season lengthened by 5–15 days/decade. Over the Arctic as a whole, the area with ice seasons shortened by at least 5 days/decade is 12.4 × 106 km2, while the area with ice seasons lengthened by at least 5 days/decade is only 1.1 × 106 km2. The contrast is even greater, percentage‐wise, for higher rates.},
author = {Parkinson, Claire L.},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL060434},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {10.1002/2014GL060434 and sea ice,Arctic,climate change,sea ice},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4316--4322},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Spatially mapped reductions in the length of the Arctic sea ice season}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL060434},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@incollection{Parris2016,
abstract = {Summary Formed in 1995, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program grew into the current network of eleven teams comprised of well over a hundred scientists in regions all over the United States. Through publicly funded research, the program successfully delivers climate services to water suppliers, city managers, homeowners, farmers and a variety of other people making decisions impacted by climate and its varied effects. RISA scientists embrace and seek to understand the complexity of decisions situated in institutions, technologies, and social norms, all changing at least as rapidly as weather and climate. The deliberate strategies RISA teams develop to connect science and decision-making through services continue to be an area of discovery, ripe for further research, reflection, and evaluation. However, the core principle for successful RISA work remains iterative and actively managed engagement between scientists and non-scientists, who have much to learn together. RISA services extend beyond data and information products to the pursuit of shared knowledge through collaborative problem solving. The success of the RISA program, as a whole, suggests the need for an enduring partnership between science and society to tackle climate adaptation. This partnership requires two new critical features in science policies that, to date, remain elusive: an emphasis on a well governed and diverse engagement strategy across various parts of the United States; and a new vision of knowledge, with a deliberate balance between theory and what we learn from a complex and evolving societal context.},
address = {Chichester, UK},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118474785.ch12},
author = {Parris, Adam and Close, Sarah L and Meyer, Ryan and Dow, Kirstin and Garfin, Gregg},
booktitle = {Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation},
doi = {10.1002/9781118474785.ch12},
editor = {Parris, A.S. and Garfin, G.M. and Dow, K. and Meyer, R. and Close, S.L.},
isbn = {9781118474785},
keywords = {RISA,climate services,coproduction,science policy,usable science},
month = {apr},
pages = {255--262},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
series = {Wiley Online Books},
title = {{Evolving the practice of Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118474785.ch12 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/9781118474785.ch12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Partain2016,
author = {Partain, James L. and Alden, Sharon and Strader, Heidi and Bhatt, Uma S. and Bieniek, Peter A. and Brettschneider, Brian R. and Walsh, John E. and Lader, Rick T. and Olsson, Peter Q. and Rupp, T. Scott and Thoman, Richard L. and York, Alison D. and Ziel, Robert H. and {James L.  Partain}, Jr. and Alden, Sharon and Strader, Heidi and Bhatt, Uma S. and Bieniek, Peter A. and Brettschneider, Brian R. and Walsh, John E. and Lader, Rick T. and Olsson, Peter Q. and Rupp, T. Scott and {Richard L.  Thoman}, Jr. and York, Alison D. and Ziel, Robert H.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0149.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {S14--S18},
title = {{An Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change in the Alaska Fire Season of 2015}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0149.1},
volume = {97},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Patt2013,
abstract = {This paper reviews the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight-thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP)-and identify critical climate vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in mean conditions and extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabilities severe enough to halt development of any of the technologies mentioned, although we do find a potential value in exploring options for making PV cells more heat-resilient and for improving the design of cooling systems for CSP. {\textcopyright} 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.},
author = {Patt, Anthony and Pfenninger, Stefan and Lilliestam, Johan},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0887-0},
issn = {01650009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric Sciences,Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {93--102},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to climate change}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0887-0},
volume = {121},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Patton2019,
abstract = {Rapid permafrost thaw in the high-latitude and high-elevation areas increases hillslope susceptibility to landsliding by altering geotechnical properties of hillslope materials, including reduced cohesion and increased hydraulic connectivity. This review synthesizes the fundamental processes that will increase landslide frequency and magnitude in permafrost regions in the coming decades with observational and analytical studies that document landslide regimes at high latitudes and elevations. We synthesize the available literature to address five questions of practical importance, which can be used to evaluate fundamental knowledge of landslide process and inform land management decisions to mitigate geohazards and environmental impacts. After permafrost thaws, we predict that landslides will be driven primarily by atmospheric input of moisture and freeze-thaw fracturing rather than responding to disconnected and perched groundwater, melting permafrost ice, and a plane of weakness between ground ice and the active layer. Transition between equilibrium states is likely to increase landslide frequency and magnitude, alter dominant failure styles, and mobilize carbon over timescales ranging from seasons to centuries. We also evaluate potential implications of increased landslide activity on local nutrient and sediment connectivity, atmospheric carbon feedbacks, and hazards to people and infrastructure. Last, we suggest three key areas for future research to produce primary data and analysis that will fill gaps in the existing understanding of landslide regimes in permafrost regions. These suggestions include 1) expand the geographic extent of English-language research on landslides in permafrost; 2) maintain or initiate long-term monitoring projects and aerial data collection; and 3) quantify the net effect on the terrestrial carbon budget.},
author = {Patton, Annette I. and Rathburn, Sara L. and Capps, Denny M.},
doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.04.029},
issn = {0169555X},
journal = {Geomorphology},
keywords = {Climate change,Hazards,Landslides,Permafrost thaw},
month = {sep},
pages = {116--128},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Landslide response to climate change in permafrost regions}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169555X19301862},
volume = {340},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Paull2017,
abstract = {The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. These results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.},
author = {Paull, Sara H. and Horton, Daniel E. and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Rastogi, Deeksha and Kramer, Laura D. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Kilpatrick, A. Marm},
doi = {10.1098/rspb.2016.2078},
issn = {14712954},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
keywords = {Culex,Disease ecology,Global warming,Nonlinear temperature– disease relationship,Vector-borne disease},
month = {feb},
number = {1848},
pages = {20162078},
pmid = {28179512},
publisher = {The Royal Society},
title = {{Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2016.2078},
volume = {284},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pena-Angulo2020,
abstract = {A fundamental key to understanding climate change and its implications is the availability of databases with wide spatial coverage, over a long period of time, with constant updates and high spatial resolution. This study describes a newly gridded data set and its map viewer “European Climatology and Trend Atlas of Climate Indices” (ECTACI), which contains four statistical parameters (climatology, coefficient of variation, slope, and significant trend) from 125 standard climate indices for the whole Europe at 0.25° grid intervals from 1979 to 2017 at various temporal scales (monthly, seasonal, and annual). In addition, this study shows, for the first time, the general trends of a wide variety of updated standard climate indices at seasonal and annual scales for the whole of Europe, which could be a useful tool for climate analysis and its impact on different sectors and socioeconomic activities. The data set and ECTACI map viewer are available for free (http://ECTACI.csic.es/).},
author = {Pe{\~{n}}a-Angulo, D. and Reig-Gracia, F. and Dom{\'{i}}nguez-Castro, F. and Revuelto, J. and Aguilar, E. and Schrier, G. and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.},
doi = {10.1029/2020JD032798},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Europe,climate indices,climatology,map viewer,seasonal,trend},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {e2020JD032798},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{ECTACI: European Climatology and Trend Atlas of Climate Indices (1979–2017)}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD032798},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pena-Gallardo2019,
abstract = {This article presents an analysis of the response of the annual crop yield in five main dryland cultivations in the United States to different time-scales of drought, and explores the environmental and climatic characteristics that determine the response. For this purpose we analysed barley, winter wheat, soybean, corn and cotton. Drought was quantified by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The results demonstrate a strong response in the interannual variability of crop yields to the drought time-scales in the different cultivations. Moreover, the response is highly spatially variable. Crop types showed considerable differences in the month in which their yields are most strongly linked to drought conditions. Some crops (e.g. winter wheat) responded to drought at medium to long SPEI time-scales, while other crops (e.g. soybean and corn) responded to short or long drought time-scales. The study confirms that the differences in the patterns of crop yield response to drought time-scales are mostly controlled by average climate conditions, in general, and water availability (precipitation), in particular. Generally, we found that there is a weaker link between crop yield and drought severity in humid environments and also that the response tends to occur over longer time-scales.},
author = {Pe{\~{n}}a-Gallardo, Marina and Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. and Quiring, Steven and Svoboda, Marc and Hannaford, Jamie and Tomas-Burguera, Miquel and Mart{\'{i}}n-Hern{\'{a}}ndez, Natalia and Dom{\'{i}}nguez-Castro, Fernando and {El Kenawy}, Ahmed},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.019},
issn = {01681923},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
keywords = {Climatic change,Crop yields,Cultivations,Drought impacts,Drought index,Natural hazards,SPEI},
month = {jan},
pages = {40--55},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Response of crop yield to different time-scales of drought in the United States: Spatio-temporal patterns and climatic and environmental drivers}},
volume = {264},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Pearce2015,
abstract = {[This paper examines the role of Inuit traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in adaptation to climate change in the Canadian Arctic. It focuses on Inuit relationships with the Arctic environment, including hunting knowledge and land skills, and examines their roles in adaptation to biophysical changes that affect subsistence hunting. In several instances, TEK underpins competency in subsistence and adaptations to changing conditions, which inculdes flexibility with regard to seasonal cycles of hunting and resource use, hazard avoidance through detailed knowledge of the environment and understanding of ecosystem processes, and emergency preparedness, e.g., knowing what supplies to take when traveling and how to respond in emergency situations. Despite the documented importance of TEK in adaptation and in maintaining a level of competency in subsistence, the relationships between TEK and adaptation to climate change are not well defined in the scholarly literature. This paper aims to conceptualize the relationships between TEK and adaptation to climate change by drawing on case study research with Inuit in the Canadian Arctic. TEK is considered an element of adaptive capacity (or resilience) that is expressed as adaptation if TEK is drawn upon to adapt to changing conditions. This capacity depends on the development, accumulation, and transmission of TEK within and among generations. Cet article se penche sur le r{\^{o}}le des connaissances {\'{e}}cologiques traditionnelles (CET) inuites en mati{\`{e}}re d'adaptation au changement climatique dans l'Arctique canadien. Il porte plus pr{\'{e}}cis{\'{e}}ment sur les relations des Inuits avec l'environnement de l'Arctique, notamment en ce qui a trait {\`{a}} leurs connaissances de la chasse et {\`{a}} leurs pratiques ancestrales, puis il examine leur r{\^{o}}le en mati{\`{e}}re d'adaptation aux changements biophysiques qui exercent une influence sur la chasse de subsistance. Dans plusieurs cas, les CET servent de fondement aux aptitudes de survie et {\`{a}} l'adaptation aux conditions changeantes, ce qui implique de la souplesse vis-{\`{a}}-vis des cycles saisonniers de chasse et d'utilisation des ressources, l'{\'{e}}vitement des dangers gr{\^{a}}ce {\`{a}} une connaissance approfondie de l'environnement et {\`{a}} la compr{\'{e}}hension de la dynamique des {\'{e}}cosyst{\`{e}}mes et l'{\'{e}}tat de pr{\'{e}}paration en cas d'urgence, {\`{a}} savoir les vivres et le mat{\'{e}}riel dont ils doivent se doter lorsqu'ils sont en d{\'{e}}placement et la fa{\c{c}}on de r{\'{e}}agir en situation d'urgence. Malgr{\'{e}} l'importance document{\'{e}}e des CET sur l'adaptation et le maintien d'un niveau de comp{\'{e}}tence en vue de la subsistance, les liens entre les CET et l'adaptation au changement climatique ne sont pas bien d{\'{e}}finis dans les {\'{e}}crits {\'{e}}rudits. Cet article cherche {\`{a}} conceptualiser les liens entre les CET et l'adaptation au changement climatique en s'appuyant sur une recherche d'{\'{e}}tude de cas avec les Inuits de l'Arctique canadien. Les CET sont consid{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}es comme un {\'{e}}l{\'{e}}ment de la capacit{\'{e}} adaptative (ou de la r{\'{e}}silience) exprim{\'{e}}e sous forme d'adaptation pourvu qu'elles soient employ{\'{e}}es pour favoriser l'adaptation aux conditions changeantes. Cette capacit{\'{e}} d{\'{e}}pend du d{\'{e}}veloppement, de l'accumulation et de la transmission des CET au sein des g{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}rations et entre elles.]},
author = {Pearce, Tristan and Ford, James and Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo and Smit, Barry},
issn = {00040843},
journal = {Arctic},
number = {2},
pages = {233--245},
publisher = {Arctic Institute of North America},
title = {{Inuit Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), Subsistence Hunting and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Canadian Arctic}},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/43871322},
volume = {68},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Pearce-Higgins2015,
abstract = {Summary Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species? populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species? sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have tended to decline. Our results provide novel insights about the impact of climate change on bird communities. Significant lagged effects highlight the potential for altered species? interactions to drive observed climate change impacts, although some community changes may have been driven by more immediate responses to warming. In England, resident and short-distance migrant populations have increased in response to climate change, but potentially at the expense of long-distance migrants,{\ldots}},
author = {Pearce-Higgins, James W and Eglington, Sarah M and Martay, Blaise and Chamberlain, Dan E},
doi = {10.1111/1365-2656.12364},
issn = {0021-8790},
journal = {Journal of Animal Ecology},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {943--954},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities}},
volume = {84},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Pederson2013a,
annote = {Cited By :32
Export Date: 24 July 2018},
author = {Pederson, N and Leland, C and Nachin, B and Hessl, A E and Bell, A R and Martin-Benito, D and Saladyga, T and Suran, B and Brown, P M and Davi, N K},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.003},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
pages = {10--20},
title = {{Three centuries of shifting hydroclimatic regimes across the Mongolian Breadbasket}},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880334072{\&}doi=10.1016{\%}2Fj.agrformet.2012.07.003{\&}partnerID=40{\&}md5=4cadbc767a22f23a567da0af358efd04},
volume = {178-179},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Pederson2011,
author = {Pederson, Gregory T. and Gray, Stephen T. and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Betancourt, Julio L. and Fagre, Daniel B. and Littell, Jeremy S. and Watson, Emma and Luckman, Brian H. and Graumlich, Lisa J.},
doi = {10.1126/science.1201570},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jul},
number = {6040},
pages = {332--335},
title = {{The Unusual Nature of Recent Snowpack Declines in the North American Cordillera}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1201570},
volume = {333},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Pedro-Monzonis2015,
author = {Pedro-Monzon{\'{i}}s, Mar{\'{i}}a and Solera, Abel and Ferrer, Javier and Estrela, Teodoro and Paredes-Arquiola, Javier},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.003},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
month = {aug},
pages = {482--493},
title = {{A review of water scarcity and drought indexes in water resources planning and management}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169415003388},
volume = {527},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Peel2013,
author = {Peel, Jennifer L. and Haeuber, Richard and Garcia, Valerie and Russell, Armistead G. and Neas, Lucas},
doi = {10.1007/s10533-012-9782-4},
issn = {0168-2563},
journal = {Biogeochemistry},
month = {jul},
number = {1-3},
pages = {121--134},
title = {{Impact of nitrogen and climate change interactions on ambient air pollution and human health}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10533-012-9782-4},
volume = {114},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Peeters2019a,
abstract = {Arctic winters have become increasingly warmer and rainier. Where permafrost prevails, winter rain (or rain-on-snow) is known to occasionally cause extensive ice layers at the snow/ground interface, i.e. 'basal ice' or 'ground ice', with potentially large ecological and socio-economic implications. However, an overall lack of field data has so far restricted our predictive understanding of the environmental conditions shaping spatiotemporal variation in basal ice. Here, we use time-series of spatially replicated snowpack measurements from coastal (Ny-{\AA}lesund area; 2000-2017) and central Spitsbergen (Nordenski{\"{o}}ld Land; 2010-2017), Svalbard, to analyze spatiotemporal patterns in basal ice and how they are linked with topography, weather, snowpack and climate change. As expected, both the spatial occurrence and thickness of basal ice increased strongly with the annual amount of winter rain. This effect was modified by accumulated snowfall; a deeper snowpack restricts ice formation following a minor rain event, but enhances ice formation following heavy rain due to an increased contribution of snowmelt. Accordingly, inter-annual variation in snow depth was negatively related to basal ice thickness. Annual fluctuations in basal ice thickness were strongly correlated in space (average correlation $\rho$ = 0.40; 0-142 km distance between plots) due to strong spatial correlation in winter rain ($\rho$ = 0.62; 14-410 km distance between meteorological stations). Models of basal ice based on meteorological time-series (1957-2017) suggested that ice-free winters (i.e. mean basal ice {\textless}0.1 cm) had virtually not occurred since 1998, whereas such winters previously (1957-1998) occurred every three-four years on average. This detected cryosphere regime shift was linked to a parallel climate regime shift with increased winter rain amounts. Svalbard is regarded a bellwether for Arctic winter climate change. Our empirical study may therefore provide an early warning of future changes in high-arctic snowpacks.},
author = {Peeters, Bart and Pedersen, {\AA}shild {\O}nvik and Loe, Leif Egil and Isaksen, Ketil and Veiberg, Vebj{\o}rn and Stien, Audun and Kohler, Jack and Gallet, Jean-Charles and Aanes, Ronny and Hansen, Brage Bremset},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change,ground ice,meteorology,rain-on-snow,snowpack,synchrony,topography},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {015002},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high Arctic Svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Pendakur2016,
abstract = {This report is a snap-shot in time, presenting the state of knowledge about climate risks to the Canadian transportation sector, and identifying existing or potential adaptation practices that may be applied to reduce them. It is intended to serve as an accessible source of information that can inform decision-making and policy development, without making recommendations or prescribing specific actions which can vary based on different situations. This report provides transportation decision-makers and practitioners with information intended to support enhanced resilience to climate risks, while also serving as a knowledge foundation for future research. The report is organized into six regional and one urban chapter to reflect the different climate vulnerabilities, priorities, practices and opportunities across Canada's national transportation system. Each chapter includes a profile of the region's population, economy, climate and transportation networks, in addition to examining observed climate impacts, future risks, opportunities, and adaptation approaches for road, rail, air, and marine transportation.},
address = {Ottawa, ON, Canada},
author = {Pendakur, Kala},
booktitle = {Climate risks and adaptation practices for the Canadian transportation sector 2016},
editor = {Palko, K. and Lemmen, D.S.},
file = {::},
pages = {27--64},
publisher = {Government of Canada},
title = {{Northern Territories}},
url = {https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/earthsciences/pdf/assess/2016/Chapter-3e.pdf},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Pender2015,
author = {Pender, Douglas and Callaghan, David P. and Karunarathna, Harshinie},
doi = {10.1007/s40722-014-0003-1},
issn = {2198-6444},
journal = {Journal of Ocean Engineering and Marine Energy},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {31--43},
publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
title = {{An evaluation of methods available for quantifying extreme beach erosion}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40722-014-0003-1},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Peng2013,
abstract = {Temperature data over the past five decades show faster warming of the global land surface during the night than during the day. This asymmetric warming is expected to affect carbon assimilation and consumption in plants, because photosynthesis in most plants occurs during daytime and is more sensitive to the maximum daily temperature, Tmax, whereas plant respiration occurs throughout the day and is therefore influenced by both T max and the minimum daily temperature, Tmin. Most studies of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming, however, ignore this asymmetric forcing effect on vegetation growth and carbon dioxide (CO 2) fluxes. Here we analyse the interannual covariations of the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, an indicator of vegetation greenness) with Tmax and Tmin over the Northern Hemisphere. After removing the correlation between Tmax and T min, we find that the partial correlation between Tmax and NDVI is positive in most wet and cool ecosystems over boreal regions, but negative in dry temperate regions. In contrast, the partial correlation between Tmin and NDVI is negative in boreal regions, and exhibits a more complex behaviour in dry temperate regions. We detect similar patterns in terrestrial net CO2 exchange maps obtained from a global atmospheric inversion model. Additional analysis of the long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration record of the station Point Barrow in Alaska suggests that the peak-to-peak amplitude of CO2 increased by 23 ± 11{\%} for a +1°C anomaly in T max from May to September over lands north of 51N, but decreased by 28 ± 14{\%} for a +1°C anomaly in Tmin. These lines of evidence suggest that asymmetric diurnal warming, a process that is currently not taken into account in many global carbon cycle models, leads to a divergent response of Northern Hemisphere vegetation growth and carbon sequestration to rising temperatures. {\textcopyright} 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.},
author = {Peng, Shushi and Piao, Shilong and Ciais, Philippe and Myneni, Ranga B. and Chen, Anping and Chevallier, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Dolman, Albertus J. and Janssens, Ivan A. and Pe{\~{n}}uelas, Josep and Zhang, Gengxin and Vicca, Sara and Wan, Shiqiang and Wang, Shiping and Zeng, Hui},
doi = {10.1038/nature12434},
issn = {00280836},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7465},
pages = {88--92},
pmid = {24005415},
title = {{Asymmetric effects of daytime and night-time warming on Northern Hemisphere vegetation}},
volume = {501},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Peng2018,
abstract = {Variability of active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions is critical for assessments of climate change, water resources, and engineering applications. Detailed knowledge of ALT variations is also important for studies on ecosystem, hydrological, and geomorphological processes in cold regions. The primary objective of this study is therefore to provide a comprehensive 1971-2000 climatology of ALT and its changes across the entire Northern Hemisphere from 1850 through 2100. To accomplish this, in situ observations, the Stefan solution based on a thawing index, and the edaphic factor (E factor) are employed to calculate ALT. The thawing index is derived from (i) the multimodel ensemble mean of 16 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over 1850-2005, (ii) three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for 2006-2100, and (iii) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) gridded observations for 1901-2014. The results show significant spatial variability in in situ ALT that generally ranges from 40 to 320 cm, with some extreme values of 900 cm in the Alps. The differences in the ALT climatology between the three RCPs and the historical experiments ranged from 0 to 200 cm. The biggest increases, of 120-200 cm, are on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while the smallest increases of less than 20 cm are in Alaska. Averaged over all permafrost regions, mean ALT from CMIP5 increased significantly at 0.57 ± 0.04 cm decade-1 during 1850-2005, while 2006-2100 projections show ALT increases of 0.77 ± 0.08 cm decade-1 for RCP2.6, 2.56 ± 0.07 cm decade-1 for RCP4.5, and 6.51 ± 0.07 cm decade-1 for RCP8.5.},
author = {Peng, Xiaoqing and Zhang, Tingjun and Frauenfeld, Oliver W. and Wang, Kang and Luo, Dongliang and Cao, Bin and Su, Hang and Jin, Huijun and Wu, Qingbai},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0721.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate models,Climate variability,Climatology,Soil temperature,Temperature},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {251--266},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness under contemporary and projected climate in the Northern Hemisphere}},
url = {www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Pepin2019a,
abstract = {Abstract Research has revealed systematic changes in warming rates with elevation (EDW) in mountain regions. However, weather stations on the Tibetan plateau are mostly located at lower elevations (3,000-4,000 m) and are nonexistent above 5,000 m, leaving critical temperature changes unknown. Satellite LST (Land Surface Temperature) can fill this gap but needs calibrating against in situ air temperatures (Tair). We develop a novel statistical model to convert LST to Tair, developed at 87 high-elevation Chinese Meteorological Administration stations. Tair (daily maximum/minimum temperatures) is compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua LST (1330 and 0130 local time) for 8-day composites during 2002-2017. Typically, 80-95{\%} of the difference between LST and Tair (?T) is explained using predictors including LST diurnal range, morning heating/nighttime cooling rates, the number of cloud free days/nights, and season (solar angle). LST is corrected to more closely represent Tair by subtracting modeled ?T. We validate the model using an AWS on Zhadang Glacier (5800 m). Trend analysis at the 87 stations (2002-2017) shows corrected LST trends to be similar to original Tair trends. To examine regional contrasts in EDW patterns, elevation profiles of corrected LST trends are derived for three ranges (Qilian Mountains, NyenchenTanglha, and Himalaya). There is limited EDW in the Qilian mountains. Maximum warming is observed around 4,500-5,500 m in NyenchenTanglha, consistent with snowline retreat. In common with other studies, there is stabilization of warming at very high elevations in the Himalaya, including absolute cooling above 6,000 m, but data there are compromised by frequent cloud.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2018JD029798},
author = {Pepin, Nick and Deng, Haijun and Zhang, Hongbo and Zhang, Fan and Kang, Shichang and Yao, Tandong},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD029798},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {Tibetan Plateau,elevation-dependent-warming,land surface temperature,mountain climate,temperature trends},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {5738--5756},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{An Examination of Temperature Trends at High Elevations Across the Tibetan Plateau: The Use of MODIS LST to Understand Patterns of Elevation-Dependent Warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029798},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Pepler2015,
abstract = {The El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are all widely recognised as having significant impacts on rainfall and temperatures in southeastern Australia, particularly during winter and spring. However, there has been little analysis of the year-to-year impact of these climate drivers on Australian snow depths. This paper aims to address this gap, identifying a strong decrease in snow cover throughout the winter season during years of El Ni{\~{n}}o or positive SAM, with significant changes in late winter and spring snow cover related to the state of the Indian Ocean Di-pole. Temperatures are identified as the most important factor in determining the seasonal maximum snow depth, with important implications for future snow cover as a result of a strong warming trend.},
author = {Pepler, Acacia S and Trewin, Blair and Ganter, Catherine},
doi = {10.22499/2.6502.002},
journal = {Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal},
number = {2},
title = {{The influences of climate drivers on the Australian snow season}},
url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/docs/2015/pepler.pdf},
volume = {65},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Peres2018,
abstract = {Quantifying the potential influence of climate change on future landslide hazard requires methodologies that allow to properly take into account nonstationarities in the hydro-meteorological causes. In this paper we provide a methodology for estimating return period of landslide triggering under climate change. The methodology capitalizes on the combined use of a stochastic rainfall generator and a hydrological and slope stability model. The stochastic rainfall generator takes into account the statistical dependency between rainfall event duration and intensity through copulas. The hydrological model is based on an analytical solution of a simplified version of the Richards vertical infiltration equation and slope stability is assessed by the infinite slope model. The combined model enables to estimate landslide probability through Monte Carlo simulations. Climate change is then introduced by perturbing the parameters of the rainfall stochastic generator based on factors of change derived from the comparison of future scenarios and the baseline climate as simulated by Regional climate models (RCMs). The Monte Carlo simulations are conducted sequentially on a future moving time window, to derive a yearly series of future landslide triggering probability. This series is then used to compute landslide return period by formulas suitable under nonstationary conditions. An application to the landslide prone region of the Peloritani Mountains, Southern Italy, is carried out to demonstrate the proposed approach. For the application, climate change projections of three RCMs of the MED-CORDEX initiative are used, and a preliminary assessment of the impacts of intermediate- and high-emission Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 is carried out.},
author = {Peres, D. J. and Cancelliere, A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.036},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Climate Change,Landslides,Monte Carlo simulation,Regional climate models,Stochastic models},
number = {June},
pages = {420--434},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Modeling impacts of climate change on return period of landslide triggering}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.036},
volume = {567},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Perkins-Kirkpatrick2017,
abstract = {The Paris Agreement calls for global warming to be limited to 1.5–2 °C. For the first time, this study investigates how different regional heatwave characteristics (intensity, frequency and duration) are projected to change relative to increasing global warming thresholds. Increases in heatwave days between 4–34 extra days per season are projected per °C of global warming. Some tropical regions could experience up to 120 extra heatwave days/season if 5 °C is reached. Increases in heatwave intensity are generally 0.5–1.5 °C above a given global warming threshold, however are higher over the Mediterranean and Central Asian regions. Between warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C, the return intervals of intense heatwaves reduce by 2–3 fold. Heatwave duration is projected to increase by 2–10 days/°C, with larger changes over lower latitudes. Analysis of two climate model ensembles indicate that variation in the rate of heatwave changes is dependent on physical differences between different climate models, however internal climate variability bears considerable influence on the expected range of regional heatwave changes per warming threshold. The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.},
author = {Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E. and Gibson, P. B.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-12520-2},
isbn = {2169-897X},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {12256},
pmid = {28947762},
title = {{Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12520-2},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Jamin2013,
abstract = {Abstract. There is a rising interest around the world for a better understanding of the economic and social value added of weather services. National hydro-meteorological services and international cooperative bodies in meteorology have ever more to justify their use of public budgets. Furthermore, the development of hydrological and meteorological services is to a large extent steered by expectations regarding the eventual benefits of the envisaged new developments. This article provides a compact overview of the impediments for uptake of socio-economic benefit (SEB) studies, methods and results of SEB studies to date. It also discusses some pitfalls and crucial steps to enhance a broader uptake of SEB studies.},
author = {Perrels, A. and Frei, Th. and Espejo, F. and Jamin, L. and Thomalla, A.},
doi = {10.5194/asr-10-65-2013},
issn = {1992-0636},
journal = {Advances in Science and Research},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {65--70},
title = {{Socio-economic benefits of weather and climate services in Europe}},
url = {https://www.adv-sci-res.net/10/65/2013/},
volume = {10},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Graham2018,
abstract = {Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.},
author = {Perry, Chris T. and Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo and Graham, Nicholas A. J. and Mumby, Peter J. and Wilson, Shaun K. and Kench, Paul S. and Manzello, Derek P. and Morgan, Kyle M. and Slangen, Aimee B. A. and Thomson, Damian P. and Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser and Smithers, Scott G. and Steneck, Robert S. and Carlton, Renee and Edinger, Evan N. and Enochs, Ian C. and Estrada-Sald{\'{i}}var, Nuria and Haywood, Michael D. E. and Kolodziej, Graham and Murphy, Gary N. and P{\'{e}}rez-Cervantes, Esmeralda and Suchley, Adam and Valentino, Lauren and Boenish, Robert and Wilson, Margaret and Macdonald, Chancey},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7710},
pages = {396--400},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level}},
volume = {558},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Dayton2018,
abstract = {Extreme environmental events are often catalysts for adaptive changes. Like many such events, the 2012 marine heatwave in the Gulf of Maine revealed unexpected connections within the ecosystem and between the natural and human components of the system. The strongest economic impacts were to Maine's valuable lobster fishery. In 2012, early and intense landings led to a backlog in the supply chain and a drop in price. This experience prompted the lobster industry to implement changes throughout the supply chain to avoid the severe drop in price should another warm year with early landings occur. Here we describe a second heatwave in the Gulf of Maine that occurred in 2016. Despite a similar pattern in monthly landings, dockside prices for lobster were higher than expected. The contrast with 2012 suggests that the adaptations in the supply chain were successful. The 2012 and 2016 heatwaves are part of a broader pattern of temperature changes in this region. Warmer autumns allow sea turtles to remain in the Gulf of Maine longer, increasing their risk of being stunned or killed by cold water, and warm years followed by cold years typically lead to a decline in lobster landings. While there is evidence for adaptation to rising temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the adaptation brought a significant shock to the system. Forecasts may help foster adaptation while avoiding shocks, but this will require a substantial shift in the mindsets of both forecast producers and consumers.},
author = {Pershing, Andrew and Mills, Katherine and Dayton, Alexa and Franklin, Bradley and Kennedy, Brian},
doi = {10.5670/oceanog.2018.213},
issn = {10428275},
journal = {Oceanography},
number = {2},
pages = {152--161},
publisher = {JSTOR},
title = {{Evidence for Adaptation from the 2016 Marine Heatwave in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean}},
url = {https://tos.org/oceanography/article/evidence-for-adaptation-from-the-2016-marine-heatwave-in-the-northwest-atl},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Pes2017,
abstract = {The main source of electricity in Brazil is from hydro, which has about 65.2{\%} share of the country's electric energy matrix. However, over the last decade the wind energy increased from 19 MW to 2.2 GW. Since wind is an intermittent energy source, heavily determined by the weather and climatic conditions, and important effects on wind power generation can be expected in the mid and long term, in particular related to the impacts of extreme winds. The IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) indicates changes in wind speed at the surface in some regions of the world, and increased wind strength in mid-latitude regions. This study scrutinizes future scenarios of extreme winds in Brazil by applying trend analysis techniques on a 50-year historical series of observational wind speed and meteorological parameters at 10 m height in Brazil. Embracing techniques of cluster analysis it was possible to characterize six main regions with macro climatic similarities. To assess the goodness fit distribution, we designate two stations per homogenous region, taking as criteria the stations with better performance in the qualification process to determine the wind distribution pattern in each region applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS) and the lowest standard error (SE). After evaluating the frequency distribution of wind speed, the best fit result for the frequency distribution of maximum wind speed is the Gumbel model. The analysis of climatic trends performed by Mann-Kendall test revealed that in minimum wind speed series is not conclusive because it shows disparate results between homogeneous regions. On the other hand, the analysis of climatic trends of maximum wind speed presents 100{\%} positive trends in Group{\#}1, an equal number of stations with not significant trends and positive trends for Group{\#}2, 36.8{\%} more stations with positive trends than negative trends for Group{\#}3 and 20{\%} of stations with more negative trends than stations with positive trends for Group{\#}4. This way, based in these results, is possible assert that there are an increase in the maximum extreme wind in Brazil, mainly in mid-latitudes.},
author = {Pes, Marcelo P and Pereira, Enio B and Marengo, Jose A and Martins, Fernando R and Heinemann, Detlev and Schmidt, Michael},
doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2016.12.101},
issn = {09601481},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
keywords = {Climate trends,Cluster analysis,Extreme winds,Frequency distributions,Mann-Kendall test,Wind energy},
month = {aug},
pages = {110--120},
title = {{Climate trends on the extreme winds in Brazil}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148116311703 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960148116311703},
volume = {109},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Peterson2013a,
abstract = {Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.},
author = {Peterson, Thomas C. and Heim, Richard R. and Hirsch, Robert and Kaiser, Dale P. and Brooks, Harold and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Dole, Randall M. and Giovannettone, Jason P. and Guirguis, Kristen and Karl, Thomas R. and Katz, Richard W. and Kunkel, Kenneth and Lettenmaier, Dennis and McCabe, Gregory J. and Paciorek, Christopher J. and Ryberg, Karen R. and Schubert, Siegfried and Silva, Viviane B. S. and Stewart, Brooke C. and Vecchia, Aldo V. and Villarini, Gabriele and Vose, Russell S. and Walsh, John and Wehner, Michael and Wolock, David and Wolter, Klaus and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Wuebbles, Donald},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00066.1},
isbn = {i1520-0477-94-6-821},
issn = {1520-0477},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {821--834},
title = {{Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods, and Droughts in the United States: State of Knowledge}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/94/6/821/60394/Monitoring-and-Understanding-Changes-in-Heat-Waves},
volume = {94},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Petitti2016,
author = {Petitti, Diana B. and Hondula, David M. and Yang, Shuo and Harlan, Sharon L. and Chowell, Gerardo},
doi = {10.1289/ehp.1409119},
issn = {0091-6765},
journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {176--183},
title = {{Multiple Trigger Points for Quantifying Heat-Health Impacts: New Evidence from a Hot Climate}},
url = {https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.1409119},
volume = {124},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Pezij2019,
abstract = {The integration of evidence-based information in operational water management is essential for robust decision-making. We investigated the current use of experiential and evidence-based information in Dutch regional operational water management. Interviews with operational water managers at regional water authorities in the Netherlands reveal that they use both evidence-based and experiential information for decision-making. While operational water management is shifting towards an evidence-based approach, experiential information is still important for decision-making. To fulfil the current information need, the operational water managers indicate they would like to have access to high-resolution spatial data, value-added products and tools for communication to stakeholders. We argue that hydrological models are suitable tools to support these needs. However, while several evidence-based information types are used by operational water managers, hydrological models are limitedly applied. Hydrological models are regarded as inaccurate for operational water management at desired spatial scales. Also, operational water managers often struggle to correctly interpret hydrological model output. We propose several means to overcome these problems, including educating operational water managers to interpret hydrological model output and selecting suitable indicators for evidence-based decision-making.},
author = {Pezij, Michiel and Augustijn, Denie C.M. and Hendriks, Dimmie M.D. and Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.12.025},
issn = {18736416},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Policy},
keywords = {Decision-making,Evidence-based information,Hydrological modelling,Operational water management},
month = {mar},
pages = {75--82},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{The role of evidence-based information in regional operational water management in the Netherlands}},
volume = {93},
year = {2019}
}
@article{ascmo-6-177-2020,
author = {Philip, S and Kew, S and van Oldenborgh, G J and Otto, F and Vautard, R and van der Wiel, K and King, A and Lott, F and Arrighi, J and Singh, R and van Aalst, M},
doi = {10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020},
journal = {Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography},
number = {2},
pages = {177--203},
title = {{A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses}},
url = {https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/177/2020/},
volume = {6},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pierce2013,
abstract = {AbstractThe effect of human-induced climate warming on different snow measures in the western United States is compared by calculating the time required to achieve a statistically significant linear trend in the different measures, using time series derived from regionally downscaled global climate models. The measures examined include the water content of the spring snowpack, total cold-season snowfall, fraction of winter precipitation that falls as snow, length of the snow season, and fraction of cold-season precipitation retained in the spring snowpack, as well as temperature and precipitation. Various stakeholders may be interested in different sets of these variables. It is found that temperature and the fraction of winter precipitation that falls as snow exhibit significant trends first, followed in 5–10 years by the fraction of cold-season precipitation retained in the spring snowpack, and later still by the water content of the spring snowpack. Change in total cold-season snowfall is least detecta...},
author = {Pierce, David W. and Cayan, Daniel R.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00534.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate sensitivity,Snow cover},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {4148--4167},
title = {{The Uneven Response of Different Snow Measures to Human-Induced Climate Warming}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00534.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Pinnegar2019,
author = {Pinnegar, John K and Engelhard, Georg H and Norris, Norman J and Theophille, Derrick and Sebastien, Riviere Delanco},
doi = {10.1093/icesjms/fsz052},
editor = {Hidalgo, Manuel},
issn = {1054-3139},
journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
month = {jun},
number = {5},
pages = {1353--1367},
title = {{Assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the fisheries sector in Dominica: long-term climate change and catastrophic hurricanes}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/advance-article/doi/10.1093/icesjms/fsz052/5512304},
volume = {76},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Pizzolato2016,
author = {Pizzolato, Larissa and Howell, Stephen E. L. and Dawson, Jackie and Lalibert{\'{e}}, Fr{\'{e}}d{\'{e}}ric and Copland, Luke},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL071489},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Arctic,Canada,climate change,marine transportation,sea ice,shipping},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {12146--12154},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The influence of declining sea ice on shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL071489},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{hess-24-2817-2020,
author = {Pohl, E and Grenier, C and Vrac, M and Kageyama, M},
doi = {10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
number = {5},
pages = {2817--2839},
title = {{Emerging climate signals in the Lena River catchment: a non-parametric statistical approach}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/24/2817/2020/},
volume = {24},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Burrows2013,
abstract = {Research that combines all available studies of biological responses to regional and global climate change shows that 81–83{\%} of all observations were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. These findings were replicated across taxa and oceanic basins.},
author = {Poloczanska, Elvira S. and Brown, Christopher J. and Sydeman, William J. and Kiessling, Wolfgang and Schoeman, David S. and Moore, Pippa J. and Brander, Keith and Bruno, John F. and Buckley, Lauren B. and Burrows, Michael T. and Duarte, Carlos M. and Halpern, Benjamin S. and Holding, Johnna and Kappel, Carrie V. and O'Connor, Mary I. and Pandolfi, John M. and Parmesan, Camille and Schwing, Franklin and Thompson, Sarah Ann and Richardson, Anthony J.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1958},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,change ecology},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {919--925},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Global imprint of climate change on marine life}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1958},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Poloczanska2013,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Poloczanska, Elvira S. and Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove and Cheung, William and P{\"{o}}rtner, Hans-Otto and Burrows, Michael T.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415379.005},
editor = {Field, C.B. and Barros, V.R. and Dokken, D.J. and Mach, K.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.},
isbn = {9781107058071},
pages = {123--127},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Cross-chapter box on observed Global Responses of Marine Biogeography, Abundance, and Phenology to Climate Change}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Sydeman2016,
abstract = {Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution, and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species' responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species' responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including shifts in distribution to higher latitudes and to deeper locations, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification, and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence associated with species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with predominance of evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of the impact of climate change being associated with the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters), or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).},
author = {Poloczanska, Elvira S. and Burrows, Michael T. and Brown, Christopher J. and {Garc{\'{i}}a Molinos}, Jorge and Halpern, Benjamin S. and Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove and Kappel, Carrie V. and Moore, Pippa J. and Richardson, Anthony J. and Schoeman, David S. and Sydeman, William J.},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2016.00062},
isbn = {2296-7745},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
month = {may},
pages = {62},
pmid = {27075100},
publisher = {Frontiers},
title = {{Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans}},
url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/Article/10.3389/fmars.2016.00062/abstract},
volume = {3},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Pope2017,
address = {Dordrecht, The Netherlands},
author = {Pope, Sierra and Copland, Luke and Alt, Bea},
booktitle = {Arctic Ice Shelves and Ice Islands},
doi = {10.1007/978-94-024-1101-0_12},
editor = {Copland, L. and Mueller, D.},
pages = {317--342},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Recent Changes in Sea Ice Plugs Along the Northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago}},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Porter2017,
author = {Porter, James J. and Dessai, Suraje},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2017.07.004},
issn = {14629011},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Policy},
month = {nov},
pages = {9--14},
title = {{Mini-me: Why do climate scientists' misunderstand users and their needs?}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901116308875},
volume = {77},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Poschlod9999,
author = {Poschlod, Benjamin and Zscheischler, Jakob and Sillmann, Jana and Wood, Raul R. and Ludwig, Ralf},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2020.100253},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
month = {jun},
pages = {100253},
title = {{Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094719301574},
volume = {28},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pour2020,
abstract = {The spatial and temporal changes in annual and seasonal aridity, the shift of land from one arid class to another and the effect of this shift on different landuses in Iran during 1951–2016 have been assessed in this study. The monthly rainfall data of global precipitation climatology center (GPCC), and the monthly mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data of climate research unit (CRU) having a spatial resolution of 0.5° were used for this purpose. The novelty of the study is the assessment of the significance in the shift of arid land between 1951–1980 and 1987–2016. Besides, the association of rainfall and temperature with aridity in different arid zones were assessed to understand the driving factors of the shift of arid lands. The results revealed an increase in annual and seasonal aridity in Iran, which caused expansion of arid land. The most remarkable changes include conversion of 4.84{\%} semi-arid land to arid land due to an increase in annual aridity, shift of 4.84{\%} arid land to hyper-arid during summer and 6.45{\%} semi-arid land to arid during winter. However, only the expansion of semi-arid land to dry-subhumid land was found statistically significant. Analysis of results revealed different contributions of rainfall and temperature in the expansion of different classes of arid lands. The decrease in rainfall was the cause of the increasing aridity in the arid and semi-arid region, while the increasing temperature was found to play a major role in increasing aridity in the humid region. The overlapping of landuse map on aridity shift map revealed that the rangelands and farmlands in the north and the northwest were more affected by the expansion of aridity which might have severe consequences on agricultural production and food security of the country.},
author = {Pour, Sahar Hadi and Wahab, Ahmad Khairi Abd and Shahid, Shamsuddin},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104704},
file = {::},
issn = {0169-8095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Gridded climate data,Landuse,Mann-Kendall test,Shift in aridity,Wilcoxon rank test},
pages = {104704},
title = {{Spatiotemporal changes in aridity and the shift of drylands in Iran}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809519308555},
volume = {233},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Pragna2017,
abstract = {Heat stress is one of the major concerns which affect the production potential of dairy cattle almost in every part of world. Elevated temperature and humidity negatively affects feed intake leading to negatively affecting the reproductive potential which ultimately decrease milk production. High yielding cows more susceptible to heat stress than the low yielders. Heat stress can increase body temperature which may affect the fat synthesis in mammary gland. Apart from reducing the milk production, heat stress can also reduce the quality of milk. Internal metabolic heat production during lactation can further reduce the resistance of cattle to high ambient temperature, resulting in altered milk composition and reduction in milk yield. Heat stress can affect the various components of milk such as fat ({\%}), solid-non-fat, protein, casein and lactose content. Heat stress can increase the somatic cell count indicating the reduction in quality of milk produced. Further, heat stress can also cause endocrine disbalance such as altering the levels of prolactin, thyroid hormones, glucocorticoid, growth hormone, estrogen, progesterone and oxytocin which ultimately affects the milk production. Heat stress through higher udder temperature may also cause mastitis in dairy cows. In addition, heat stress during dry period in particular might trigger mammary gland involution accompanied with apoptosis and autophagy, decreased amount of mammary epithelial cells can ultimately cause decline in milk yield. It may be concluded from this review that heat stress is considered to be adversely impacting both quantity as well as quality of milk produced. Heat stress brings about these impacts through reduced feed intake, altered hormone concentration and pathological changes in udder during mastitis.},
author = {Pragna, Prathap and Archana, P.R. and Aleena, Joy and Sejian, Veerasamy and Krishnan, Govindan and Bagath, Madiajagan and Manimaran, A. and Beena, V. and Kurien, E.K. and Varma, Girish and Bhatta, Raghavendra},
doi = {10.3923/ijds.2017.1.11},
issn = {18119743},
journal = {International Journal of Dairy Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1--11},
title = {{Heat Stress and Dairy Cow: Impact on Both Milk Yield and Composition}},
url = {http://www.scialert.net/abstract/?doi=ijds.2017.1.11 https://www.scialert.net/abstract/?doi=ijds.2017.1.11},
volume = {12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Preethi2019,
abstract = {Variability of Indian summer monsoon droughts is investigated by computing all-India drought indices namely Percent of Normal Precipitation, Standardized Precipitation Index and percentage area of India under moderate and severe drought conditions. Observations for recent decades, post 1960, exhibit declining trend in monsoon rainfall with frequent occurrence and intensification of droughts along with an increase in percentage of area under moderate and severe drought conditions, in association with variations in sea surface temperature (SST). Historical simulations from CMIP5 models suggest that two models, ACCESS1.0 and INMCM4, could well simulate monsoon rainfall variability, particularly the frequent occurrence of droughts and spatial variability of rainfall during drought years in recent historical period (1961–2005). Future projections of all-India drought indices from these two models indicate frequent droughts during near and mid future (2010–2069) with respect to the recent historical period. Intensification of severe droughts for near and mid future are suggested to be more pronounced over north-central India. The reduction in rainfall in the near and mid future is dynamically consistent with a westward shift in large-scale monsoon circulation, particularly the monsoon trough over South Asia. Interestingly, future projections of monsoon teleconnections indicate a weakening (strengthening) of in-phase (out-of-phase) relationship of all-India drought intensity with the equatorial eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean (western Pacific) SST. Whereas, a strengthening of in-phase relationship between percentage of area under drought conditions and the equatorial eastern Pacific SST is projected for near and mid future with respect to the recent historical period. These drought features are consistent in both the models.},
author = {Preethi, B and Ramya, R and Patwardhan, S K and Mujumdar, M and Kripalani, R H},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04752-x},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1937--1962},
title = {{Variability of Indian summer monsoon droughts in CMIP5 climate models}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04752-x http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-04752-x},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Pregnolato2017a,
author = {Pregnolato, Maria and Ford, Alistair and Glenis, Vassilis and Wilkinson, Sean and Dawson, Richard},
doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000372},
issn = {1076-0342},
journal = {Journal of Infrastructure Systems},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {04017015},
title = {{Impact of Climate Change on Disruption to Urban Transport Networks from Pluvial Flooding}},
url = {http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/{\%}28ASCE{\%}29IS.1943-555X.0000372},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Prein2017a,
abstract = {Climate change is causing increases in extreme rainfall across the United States. This study uses observations and high-resolution modelling to show that rainfall changes related to rising temperatures depend on the available atmospheric moisture.},
author = {Prein, Andreas F. and Rasmussen, Roy M. and Ikeda, Kyoko and Liu, Changhai and Clark, Martyn P. and Holland, Greg J.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3168},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Climate and Earth system modelling,Environmental impact,Hydrology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {48--52},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3168},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Prein2016,
abstract = {In the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative an ensemble of European-wide high-resolution regional climate simulations on a 0.11∘(∼12.5km) grid has been generated. This study investigates whether the fine-gridded regional climate models are found to add value to the simulated mean and extreme daily and sub-daily precipitation compared to their coarser-gridded 0.44∘(∼50km) counterparts. Therefore, pairs of fine- and coarse-gridded simulations of eight reanalysis-driven models are compared to fine-gridded observations in the Alps, Germany, Sweden, Norway, France, the Carpathians, and Spain. A clear result is that the 0.11∘simulations are found to better reproduce mean and extreme precipitation for almost all regions and seasons, even on the scale of the coarser-gridded simulations (50 km). This is primarily caused by the improved representation of orography in the 0.11∘simulations and therefore largest improvements can be found in regions with substantial orographic features. Improvements in reproducing precipitation in the summer season appear also due to the fact that in the fine-gridded simulations the larger scales of convection are captured by the resolved-scale dynamics. The 0.11∘simulations reduce biases in large areas of the investigated regions, have an improved representation of spatial precipitation patterns, and precipitation distributions are improved for daily and in particular for 3 hourly precipitation sums in Switzerland. When the evaluation is conducted on the fine (12.5 km) grid, the added value of the 0.11∘models becomes even more obvious.},
author = {Prein, A. F. and Gobiet, A. and Truhetz, H. and Keuler, K. and Goergen, K. and Teichmann, C. and {Fox Maule}, C. and van Meijgaard, E. and D{\'{e}}qu{\'{e}}, M. and Nikulin, G. and Vautard, R. and Colette, A. and Kjellstr{\"{o}}m, E. and Jacob, D.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2589-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {383--412},
title = {{Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits?}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2589-y},
volume = {46},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Prein2018,
abstract = {A single hailstorm can cause losses in the billion-dollar range if it occurs over a densely populated area. Property losses from hailstorms are rising with time mainly due to a combination of increases in population density and wealth. Report based observational hail data alone are highly inhomogeneous and unable to discriminate between climate and societal changes. Here we present a statistical approach that estimates hail hazard from large-scale environmental conditions. Using daily ERA-Interim reanalysis data and large hail observations (diameter larger than 2.5 cm) from the conterminous United States (CONUS) we show that four predictors enable skillful discrimination of large hail frequencies on a regional scale. The predictors include atmospheric instability, freezing level height, and 0–3 km wind shear and storm relative helicity. These variables are used to develop a hail algorithm, which provides the probabilities for large hail occurrence from regional to global scales and from daily to climate timescales. The algorithm skill is tested over the CONUS and with independent hail observations from Australia and Europe. It skillfully captures the frequency, annual cycle, spatial patterns, and interannual variability of observed large hail records in a large variety of climate regions. Deficiencies are found in regions with strong orographic forcing and low shear environments. The algorithm outperforms established severe convection indices in terms of more accurately predicting absolute hail frequencies and the annual cycles of large hail in all tested regions. The code is open-source and is applicable to a variety of tasks including daily to seasonal forecasting and assessing climate change influences on hail hazard.},
author = {Prein, Andreas F. and Holland, Greg J.},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2018.10.004},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Algorithm,Global,Hail hazard,Severe convection},
month = {dec},
pages = {10--23},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Global estimates of damaging hail hazard}},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Prein2017,
abstract = {Mesoscale convective system (MCS)-organized convective storms with a size of {\~{}}100 km have increased in frequency and intensity in the USA over the past 35 years 1, causing fatalities and economic losses 2 . However, their poor representation in traditional climate models hampers the understanding of their change in the future 3 . Here, a North American-scale convection-permitting model which is able to realistically simulate MSCs 4 is used to investigate their change by the end-of-century under RCP8.5 (ref. 5 ). A storm-tracking algorithm 6 indicates that intense summertime MCS frequency will more than triple in North America. Furthermore, the combined effect of a 15-40{\%} increase in maximum precipitation rates and a significant spreading of regions impacted by heavy precipitation results in up to 80{\%} increases in the total MCS precipitation volume, focussed in a 40 km radius around the storm centre. These typically neglected increases substantially raise future flood risk. Current investments in long-lived infrastructures, such as flood protection and water management systems, need to take these changes into account to improve climate-adaptation practices.},
author = {Prein, Andreas F. and Liu, Changhai and Ikeda, Kyoko and Trier, Stanley B. and Rasmussen, Roy M. and Holland, Greg J. and Clark, Martyn P.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-017-0007-7},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Hydrology,Projection and prediction},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {880--884},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0007-7},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Prestemon2016,
abstract = {Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the south-eastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect wildfire in the coming decades. We estimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (1992–2010) based on precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, forest land use, human population and personal income. Estimated parameters from the statistical models were used to project wildfire area burned from 2011 to 2060 under nine climate realisations, using a combination of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-based emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) and three general circulation models. Monte Carlo simulation quantifies ranges in projected area burned by county by year, and in total for higher-level spatial aggregations. Projections indicated, overall in the Southeast, that median annual area burned by lightning-ignited wildfire increases by 34{\%}, human-ignited wildfire decreases by 6{\%}, and total wildfire increases by 4{\%} by 2056–60 compared with 2016–20. Total wildfire changes vary widely by state (–47 to +30{\%}) and ecoregion province (–73 to +79{\%}). Our analyses could be used to generate projections of wildfire-generated air pollutant exposures, relevant to meeting the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.},
author = {Prestemon, Jeffrey P. and Shankar, Uma and Xiu, Aijun and Talgo, K. and Yang, D. and Dixon, Ernest and McKenzie, Donald and Abt, Karen L.},
doi = {10.1071/WF15124},
issn = {1049-8001},
journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
keywords = {climate change,human-caused wildfire,land use,lightning-caused wildfire},
number = {7},
pages = {715--729},
title = {{Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011–60}},
url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF15124},
volume = {25},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Prinz2018b,
abstract = {Since the last complete glacier mapping of Mt. Kenya in 2004, strong glacier retreat and glacier disintegration have been reported. Here, we compile and present a new glacier inventory of Mt. Kenya to document recent glacier change. Glacier area and mass changes were derived from an orthophoto and digital elevation model extracted from Pl{\'{e}}iades tri-stereo satellite images. We additionally explore the feasibility of using freely available imagery (Sentinel-2) and an alternative elevation model (TanDEM-X-DEM) for monitoring very small glaciers in complex terrain, but both proved to be inappropriate; Sentinel-2 because of its too coarse horizontal resolution compared to the very small glaciers, and TanDEM-X-DEM because of errors in the steep summit area of Mt. Kenya. During 2004–2016, the total glacier area on Mt. Kenya decreased by 121.0 × 103 m2 (44{\%}). The largest glacier (Lewis) lost 62.8 × 103 m2 (46{\%}) of its area and 1.35 × 103 m3 (57{\%}) of its volume during the same period. The mass loss of Lewis Glacier has been accelerating since 2010 due to glacier disintegration, which has led to the emergence of a rock outcrop splitting the glacier in two parts. If the current retreat rates prevail, Mt. Kenya's glaciers will be extinct before 2030, implying the cessation of the longest glacier monitoring record of the tropics.},
author = {Prinz, Rainer and Heller, Armin and Ladner, Martin and Nicholson, Lindsey and Kaser, Georg},
doi = {10.3390/geosciences8050174},
issn = {2076-3263},
journal = {Geosciences},
keywords = {DEM,Glacier inventory,Glacier monitoring,Mount Kenya,Pl{\'{e}}iades satellite images,Satellite remote sensing,Sentinel-2,TanDEM-X,Tropical glacier},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {174},
publisher = {MDPI AG},
title = {{Mapping the Loss of Mt. Kenya's Glaciers: An Example of the Challenges of Satellite Monitoring of Very Small Glaciers}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/8/5/174},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Pritchard2019,
author = {Pritchard, Hamish D},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1240-1},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7758},
pages = {649--654},
title = {{Asia's shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress}},
volume = {569},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Proctor2018,
abstract = {Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures1,2, yet the economic effects of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown3. Although solar radiation management may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress4, the effects of concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates, to our knowledge, of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols created by the eruptions of El Chich{\'{o}}n and Mount Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, and how these changes in sunlight affected global crop yields. We find that the sunlight-mediated effect of stratospheric sulfate aerosols on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice and wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a solar radiation management scenario based on stratospheric sulfate aerosols, we find that projected mid-twenty-first century damages due to scattering sunlight caused by solar radiation management are roughly equal in magnitude to benefits from cooling. This suggests that solar radiation management—if deployed using stratospheric sulfate aerosols similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic—would, on net, attenuate little of the global agricultural damage from climate change. Our approach could be extended to study the effects of solar radiation management on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function.},
author = {Proctor, Jonathan and Hsiang, Solomon and Burney, Jennifer and Burke, Marshall and Schlenker, Wolfram},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0417-3},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Environmental social sciences,Plant sciences},
month = {aug},
number = {7719},
pages = {480--483},
pmid = {30089909},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0417-3},
volume = {560},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Prokopy2017,
abstract = {The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates some key ways that the co-production process informed the overall project. Subsequent papers in the special issue span the different objectives of the U2U project, including social, climate, and agronomic sciences. A brief overview of these papers is presented here.},
author = {Prokopy, Linda Stalker and Carlton, J Stuart and Haigh, Tonya and Lemos, Maria Carmen and Mase, Amber Saylor and Widhalm, Melissa},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2016.10.004},
issn = {22120963},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
keywords = {Agricultural advisors,Climate change,Co-production,Corn producers,Interdisciplinary,Midwestern U.S.},
pages = {1--7},
title = {{Useful to Usable: Developing usable climate science for agriculture}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300900 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212096316300900},
volume = {15},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Prudhomme2014,
abstract = {Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are widely expected to influence global climate over the coming century. The impact on drought is uncertain because of the complexity of the processes but can be estimated using outputs from an ensemble of global models (hydrological and climate models). Using an ensemble of 35 simulations, we show a likely increase in the global severity of drought by the end of 21st century, with regional hotspots including South America and Central and Western Europe in which the frequency of drought increases by more than 20{\%}. The main source of uncertainty in the results comes from the hydrological models, with climate models contributing to a substantial but smaller amount of uncertainty.Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40{\%} of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.},
author = {Prudhomme, Christel and Giuntoli, Ignazio and Robinson, Emma L. and Clark, Douglas B. and Arnell, Nigel W. and Dankers, Rutger and Fekete, Bal{\'{a}}zs M. and Franssen, Wietse and Gerten, Dieter and Gosling, Simon N. and Hagemann, Stefan and Hannah, David M. and Kim, Hyungjun and Masaki, Yoshimitsu and Satoh, Yusuke and Stacke, Tobias and Wada, Yoshihide and Wisser, Dominik},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222473110},
file = {::},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {9},
pages = {3262--3267},
title = {{Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3262.abstract},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Pu2017,
abstract = {Climate models project rising drought risks over the southwestern and central U.S. in the twenty-first century due to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected drier regions largely overlay the major dust sources in the United States. However, whether dust activity in U.S. will increase in the future is not clear, due to the large uncertainty in dust modeling. This study found that changes of dust activity in the U.S. in the recent decade are largely associated with the variations of precipitation, soil bareness, and surface winds speed. Using multi-model output under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario, we project that climate change will increase dust activity in the southern Great Plains from spring to fall in the late half of the twenty-first century – largely due to reduced precipitation, enhanced land surface bareness, and increased surface wind speed. Over the northern Great Plains, less dusty days are expected in spring due to increased precipitation and reduced bareness. Given the large negative economic and societal consequences of severe dust storms, this study complements the multi-model projection on future dust variations and may help improve risk management and resource planning.},
author = {Pu, Bing and Ginoux, Paul},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-05431-9},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Attribution,Natural hazards},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {5553},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05431-9 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-05431-9},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pu2018,
author = {Pu, Bing and Ginoux, Paul},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-4201-2018},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {4201--4215},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Climatic factors contributing to long-term variations in surface fine dust concentration in the United States}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/18/4201/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Qiu2018,
author = {Qiu, Xiaoping and Yang, Xueting and Fang, Yiping and Xu, Yun and Zhu, Fubiao},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.05.007},
issn = {2212-4209},
journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
number = {May},
pages = {143--152},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Impacts of snow disaster on rural livelihoods in southern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau}},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Qu2019,
author = {Qu, Ying and Jevrejeva, Svetlana and Jackson, Luke P and Moore, John C},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.11.005},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
pages = {454--463},
title = {{Coastal Sea level rise around the China Seas}},
volume = {172},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Querol2019,
author = {Querol, X and Tob{\'{i}}as, A and P{\'{e}}rez, N and Karanasiou, A and Amato, F and Stafoggia, M and {P{\'{e}}rez Garc{\'{i}}a-Pando}, C. and Ginoux, P and Forastiere, F and Gumy, S and Mudu, P. and Alastuey, A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.05.061},
issn = {01604120},
journal = {Environment International},
month = {sep},
pages = {104867},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Monitoring the impact of desert dust outbreaks for air quality for health studies}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S016041201930604X},
volume = {130},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Qutbudin2019,
abstract = {We assessed the changes in meteorological drought severity and drought return periods during cropping seasons in Afghanistan for the period of 1901 to 2010. The droughts in the country were analyzed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Global Precipitation Climatology Center rainfall and Climate Research Unit temperature data both at 0.5° resolutions were used for this purpose. Seasonal drought return periods were estimated using the values of the SPEI fitted with the best distribution function. Trends in climatic variables and SPEI were assessed using modified Mann–Kendal trend test, which has the ability to remove the influence of long-term persistence on trend significance. The study revealed increases in drought severity and frequency in Afghanistan over the study period. Temperature, which increased up to 0.14 °C/decade, was the major factor influencing the decreasing trend in the SPEI values in the northwest and southwest of the country during rice- and corn-growing seasons, whereas increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall were the cause of a decrease in SPEI during wheat-growing season. We concluded that temperature plays a more significant role in decreasing the SPEI values and, therefore, more severe droughts in the future are expected due to global warming.},
author = {Qutbudin, Ishanch and Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi and Sharafati, Ahmad and Ahmed, Kamal and Al-Ansari, Nadhir and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Wang, Xiaojun},
doi = {10.3390/w11051096},
file = {::},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {1096},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Seasonal Drought Pattern Changes Due to Climate Variability: Case Study in Afghanistan}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/5/1096},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Raisanen2012,
abstract = {Changes in snow amount in northern Europe are analysed from 11 regional$\backslash$nmodel simulations of 21st century climate under the Special Report on$\backslash$nEmissions Scenarios A1B scenario. These high-resolution models$\backslash$ncollectively indicate a future decrease in the water equivalent of the$\backslash$nsnow pack (SWE). Although winter precipitation increases, this is$\backslash$ninsufficient to compensate for the increased fraction of liquid$\backslash$nprecipitation and increased snowmelt caused by higher temperatures. The$\backslash$nmulti-model mean results suggest a slight increase in March mean SWE$\backslash$nonly locally in mountains of northern Sweden, and even there, snow is$\backslash$nreduced earlier in winter and later in spring. The nature of the changes$\backslash$nremains the same throughout the 21st century, but their magnitude$\backslash$nincreases with time as the greenhouse gas forcing grows larger. The$\backslash$ngeographical patterns of the change support the physically intuitive$\backslash$nview that snow is most vulnerable to warming in areas with relatively$\backslash$nmild winter climate. A similar relationship emerges when comparing the$\backslash$n11 simulations with each other: the ratio between the relative SWE$\backslash$ndecrease and winter mean temperature change is larger (smaller) for$\backslash$nsimulations with higher (lower) late 20th century winter temperatures.$\backslash$nDespite the decrease in long-term mean SWE, individual snow-rich winters$\backslash$ndo occur in the simulations, but they become increasingly uncommon$\backslash$ntowards the end of the 21st century.},
author = {R{\"{a}}is{\"{a}}nen, Jouni and Eklund, Joonas},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-011-1076-3},
isbn = {0930-7575},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jun},
number = {11-12},
pages = {2575--2591},
title = {{21st Century changes in snow climate in Northern Europe: a high-resolution view from ENSEMBLES regional climate models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-011-1076-3},
volume = {38},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Rossler2019b,
abstract = {The application of climate change impact assessment (CCIA) studies in general and especially the linkages between different actor groups typically involved is often not trivial and subject to many limitations and uncertainties. Disciplinary issues like competing downscaling approaches, imperfect climate and impact model data and uncertainty propagation as well as the selection of appropriate data sets are only one part of the story. Interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary challenges add to these, as climate data and impact model data provision and their usage require at least a minimum of common work and shared understanding among actors. Here, we provide the VALUE perspective on current disciplinary challenges and limitations at the downscaling interface and elaborate transdisciplinary issues that hamper a proper working downscaling interface. The perspective is partly based on a survey on user needs of downscaled data that was distributed among 62 participants across Europe involving 22 sectors. Partly, it is based on the exchanges and experiences gained during the lifetime of VALUE that brought together different actor groups of different disciplines: climate modellers, impact modellers, statisticians and stakeholders. We outline a sketch that summarizes the linkages between the main identified actor groups: climate model data providers, impact modellers and societal users. We summarize review and structure current actors groups, needs and issues. We argue that this structuring enables involved actors to tackle these issues in a more organized and hence effective way. A key solution to several difficulties at the downscaling interface is to our understanding the development of guidelines based on benchmark tests like the VALUE framework. In addition, fostering communication between actor groups?and financing this communication?is essential to obtain the best possible CCIA as a prerequisite for robust adaptation.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5060},
author = {R{\"{o}}ssler, O and Fischer, A M and Huebener, H and Maraun, D and Benestad, R E and Christodoulides, P and Soares, P M M and Cardoso, R M and Pag{\'{e}}, C and Kanamaru, H and Kreienkamp, F and Vlachogiannis, D},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5060},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {VALUE,climate change,climate services,downscaling,user needs},
month = {jul},
number = {9},
pages = {3704--3716},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Challenges to link climate change data provision and user needs: Perspective from the COST-action VALUE}},
url = {10.1002/joc.5060},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ragno2018,
author = {Ragno, Elisa and AghaKouchak, Amir and Love, Charlotte A. and Cheng, Linyin and Vahedifard, Farshid and Lima, Carlos H. R.},
doi = {10.1002/2017WR021975},
issn = {0043-1397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {climate change,extreme events,nonstationary extreme value analysis},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1751--1764},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Quantifying Changes in Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves Using Multimodel Ensemble Simulations}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017WR021975},
volume = {54},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rahimi2019a,
abstract = {During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.},
author = {Rahimi, Jaber and Malekian, Arash and Khalili, Ali},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2395-7},
issn = {1434-4483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
number = {1},
pages = {545--564},
title = {{Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2395-7},
volume = {135},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rahimi2018a,
abstract = {Climate extremes can have many negative effects on different sectors. Globally, observations show significant changes in the characteristics of extreme events. We examined trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices in Iran during the period 1960-2014. We present results from 33 quality controlled and homogenous synoptic stations (excluding stations with excessive missing data). For each station, we calculate 27 indices characterizing extreme temperature and precipitation. For all indices (including Rx5DAY, CWD, R95p, R99p, GSL and TXn) positive, negative, and insignificant trends were obtained. Generally, there were negative trends in R10mm, R20mm, R25mm, CDD, PRCPTOT, FD, TN10p, TX10p, CSDI and positive trends in Rx1DAY, SDII, SU25, TR20, TXx, TNn, TNx, TN90p, TX90p and WSDI at most stations. There is a decreasing trend in the magnitude and frequency of cold extremes and an increasing trend in magnitude and frequency of warm extremes over the observational record, which is consistent with previous research reporting the warming trends of the climate.},
author = {Rahimi, Mohammad and Mohammadian, Nooshin and Vanashi, Ameneh Rezei and Whan, Kirien},
doi = {10.4236/oje.2018.87024},
issn = {2162-1985},
journal = {Open Journal of Ecology},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {396--415},
publisher = {Scientific Research Publishing},
title = {{Trends in Indices of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation in Iran over the Period 1960-2014}},
url = {http://www.scirp.org/journal/doi.aspx?DOI=10.4236/oje.2018.87024},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rai2020,
abstract = {Present study attempts to project extreme precipitation indices over 34 different meteorological subdivisions and six homogeneous regions such as Northwest, Central Northeast, Northeast, West Central, Peninsular India and Hilly Region during summer monsoon season in the twenty-first century. For this purpose, the Regional Climate Model version4 (RegCM4) had been run at 50 km horizontal resolution forced with the global model GFDL-ESM2 M, during reference period 1976–2005 for the model validation, and the mid- (2031–2060) and far-future (2070–2099) for projections under RCP8.5 scenario over the South Asia CORDEX domain. In this paper, model simulated precipitation has been validated against IMD, APHRODITE and NCEP/NCAR data sets. The results indicate that RegCM4 captures the important features of seasonal precipitation and various extreme indices over the study area. The RegCM4 has projected an increase in the mean seasonal precipitation by 0.56 mm/day whereas in case of GFDL model the rate is 0.39 mm/day during the far-future relative to the reference period. The heavy precipitation indices are projected to increase more frequently (0.264/decade) than the mean precipitation rate (0.01/decade) over India. The correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and the seasonal mean precipitation are found to be strong. In addition, the consecutive dry days are projected to occur more frequently (3–5 days) over West Central (Telangana, Vidarbha and Marathwada) and west Rajasthan while consecutive wet days are projected to decrease over larger parts of India during far-future. Similarly, 1 day maximum precipitation and the simple daily intensity index are projected to increase consistently from mid- to far- futures over some sub-divisions of West coast, Hilly and Northeast regions. From a spatial probability perspective, model projection indicates more frequent severe drought and flood conditions over India.},
author = {Rai, P K and Singh, G P and Dash, S K},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04997-6},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {247--272},
title = {{Projected changes in extreme precipitation events over various subdivisions of India using RegCM4}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04997-6},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Rajczak2017,
author = {Rajczak, Jan and Sch{\"{a}}r, Christoph},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027176},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {EURO‐CORDEX,Europe,Regional Climate Models,climate projections,extremes,precipitation},
month = {oct},
number = {20},
pages = {10773--10800},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Projections of Future Precipitation Extremes Over Europe: A Multimodel Assessment of Climate Simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017JD027176},
volume = {122},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ramarao2019,
abstract = {In this study, a quantitative assessment of observed aridity variations over the semiarid regions of India is performed for the period 1951–2005 using a dimensionless ratio of annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), estimated from five different observed gridded precipitation data sets. The climatological values and changes of this aridity index are found to be sensitive to the choice of the precipitation observations. An assessment of P/PET estimated using the ensemble mean precipitation shows an increase in aridity over several semiarid regions of India, despite the sensitivity of P/PET variations across individual precipitation data sets. Our results indicate that precipitation variations over the semiarid regions of India are outpacing the changes in potential evapotranspiration and, thereby, influencing aridity changes in a significant manner. Our results further reveal a 10{\%} expansion in the area of the semiarid regions during recent decades relative to previous decades, thus highlighting the need for better adaptation strategies and mitigation planning for the semiarid regions in India. The sensitivity of aridity index to multiple PET data sets can be an additional source of uncertainty and will be addressed in a future study.},
author = {Ramarao, M V S and Sanjay, J and Krishnan, R and Mujumdar, M and Bazaz, Amir and Revi, Aromar},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2513-6},
file = {::},
issn = {1434-4483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
number = {1},
pages = {693--702},
title = {{On observed aridity changes over the semiarid regions of India in a warming climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2513-6},
volume = {136},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ramesh2017,
author = {Ramesh, Kulasekaran and Matloob, Amar and Aslam, Farhena and Florentine, Singarayer K. and Chauhan, Bhagirath S.},
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2017.00095},
issn = {1664-462X},
journal = {Frontiers in Plant Science},
month = {feb},
pages = {95},
title = {{Weeds in a Changing Climate: Vulnerabilities, Consequences, and Implications for Future Weed Management}},
url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpls.2017.00095/full},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ramirez-Beltran2017,
abstract = {Hourly data collected from ground stations were used to study themaximum daytime heat indexHi in the Mesoamerica and Caribbean Sea (MAC) region for a 35-yr period (1980–2014). Observations of Hi re- vealed larger values during the rainy season and smaller values during the dry season. The Hi climatology exhibits the largest values in Mesoamerica, followed by the Greater Antilles and then by the Lesser An- tilles. The trend in Hi indicates a notable increasing pattern of 0.058Cyr21 (0.108Fyr21), and the trends are more prominent in Mesoamerica than in Caribbean countries. This work also includes the analysis of heat index extreme events (HIEE). Usually the extreme values of the heat index are used for advising heat warning events, and it was found that 45 HIEEs occurred during the studied period. The average duration of HIEE was 2.4 days, and the average relative intensity (excess over the threshold) was 2.48C(4.38F). It was found that 82{\%} of HIEE lasted 2 or 2.5 days and 80{\%} exhibited relative intensity of 38C(5.48F) or less. It was also found that the frequency of extreme events has intensified since 1991, with the highest incidences occurring in 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2010, and these years coincide with the cool phase of El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, the occurrences of HIEE in the MAC region appear to be at least partially influenced by ENSO episodes.},
author = {Ramirez-Beltran, Nazario D. and Gonzalez, Jorge E. and Castro, Joan M. and Angeles, Moises and Harmsen, Eric W. and Salazar, Cesar M.},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0167.1},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
pages = {2905--2925},
title = {{Analysis of the Heat Index in the Mesoamerica and Caribbean Region}},
volume = {56},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ranasinghe2016,
abstract = {The world's coastlines are shaped by mean sea level, wave conditions, storm surge, and riverflows. Climate change (CC) driven variations in these environmental forcings will inevitably have a profound effect on the coastal zone. Given the continued growth of coastal communities and extremely high value of coastal assets worldwide, effective adaptation measures underpinned by reliable coastal CC impact assessments are essential to avoid massive future coastal zone losses. This review aims to promote the adoption of best practice in local scale assessments of potential physical impacts of CC on open sandy coasts by (a) summarising the potential first order physical impacts of CC, (b) suggesting a standard modelling framework for local scale CC impact assessments, (c) identifying future research needs to facilitate the effective implementation of the prescribed modelling framework, (d) suggesting ways to address the identified research needs, and (e) discussing how existing methods/tools may be used for CC impact assessments until more advanced methods/tools are developed.},
author = {Ranasinghe, Roshanka},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.07.011},
isbn = {0012-8252},
issn = {00128252},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
keywords = {Climate change,impact assessment,numerical modelling,sandy coasts},
month = {sep},
pages = {320--332},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Assessing climate change impacts on open sandy coasts: A review}},
volume = {160},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ranasinghe2019,
abstract = {The world's large rivers are under stress and experiencing unprecedented changes in hydrology, ecosystems, and fluvial sediment loads. Many of these rivers terminate at the great deltas of the world (home to 500 million people), which depend on fluvial sediments for their very existence. While fluvial sediment loads of large rivers have already been greatly modified by human activities, climate change is expected to further exacerbate the situation. But how does the effect of climate change on fluvial sediment loads compare with that of human impacts? Here, we address this question by combining historical observations and 21st century projections for one of the world's largest 25 rivers containing two mega dams; Pearl River, China. Our analysis shows that variations in fluvial sediment supply to the coast from the Pearl river over a {\~{}}150 year study period are dominated by human activities. Projected climate change driven 21st century increases in riverflow will only compensate for about 1{\%} of the human induced deficit in sediment load, leading to the coastal zone being starved of about 6000 Mt of sediment over the remainder of this century. A similar dominance of human impacts on fluvial sediment supply is likely at other heavily engineered rivers.},
author = {Ranasinghe, Roshanka and Wu, Chuang Shou and Conallin, John and Duong, Trang Minh and Anthony, Edward Jamal},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-45442-2},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {9236},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Disentangling the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on fluvial sediment supply to the coast by the world's large rivers: Pearl River Basin, China}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45442-2},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Ranasinghe2017,
address = {Chichester, UK},
author = {Ranasinghe, Roshanka and Callaghan, David},
booktitle = {Coastal Storms: Processes and Impacts},
doi = {10.1002/9781118937099.ch12},
editor = {Ciavola, Paolo and Coco, Giovanni},
keywords = {Corbella and Stretch approach,coastal management,extrapolated wave exceedance characteristics,joint probability method approach,storm erosion hazard assessment,storm erosion volume estimates,synthetic design storm approach},
month = {apr},
pages = {241--256},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Assessing Storm Erosion Hazards}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/9781118937099.ch12 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/9781118937099.ch12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Rangecroft2016,
abstract = {Water resources in many of the world's arid mountain ranges are threatened by climate change, and in parts of the South American Andes this is exacerbated by glacier recession and population growth. Alternative sources of water, such as more resilient permafrost features (e.g. rock glaciers), are expected to become increasingly important as current warming continues. Assessments of current and future permafrost extent under climate change are not available for the Southern Hemisphere, yet are required to inform decision making over future water supply and climate change adaptation strategies. Here, downscaled model outputs were used to calculate the projected changes in permafrost extent for a first-order assessment of an example region, the Bolivian Andes. Using the 0 °C mean annual air temperature as a proxy for permafrost extent, these projections show that permafrost areas will shrink from present day extent by up to 95 {\%} under warming projected for the 2050s and by 99 {\%} for the 2080s (under the IPCC A1B scenario, given equilibrium conditions). Using active rock glaciers as a proxy for the lower limit of permafrost extent, we also estimate that projected temperature changes would drive a near total loss of currently active rock glaciers in this region by the end of the century. In conjunction with glacier recession, a loss of permafrost extent of this magnitude represents a water security problem for the latter part of the 21st century, and it is likely that this will have negative effects on one of South America's fastest growing cities (La Paz), with similar implications for other arid mountain regions.},
author = {Rangecroft, Sally and Suggitt, Andrew J. and Anderson, Karen and Harrison, Stephan},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1655-8},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {231--243},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes}},
volume = {137},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Rasoulkhani2020,
abstract = {Coastal water supply infrastructure systems are exposed to saltwater intrusion exacerbated by sea-level rise stressors. To enable assessing the long-term resilience of these systems to the impact of sea-level rise, this study developed a novel hazards-humans-infrastructure nexus framework that enables the integrated modeling of stochastic processes of hazard scenarios, decision-theoretic elements of adaptation planning processes of utility agencies, and dynamic processes of water supply infrastructure performance. Using the proposed framework and data collected from South Miami-Dade service area, a multi-agent simulation model was created to conduct exploratory assessments of the long-term resilience of water supply infrastructure under various sea-level rise scenarios and adaptation approaches. The results showed the capability of the proposed model for scenario landscape generation to discover robust adaptation pathways for enhanced infrastructure resilience under uncertainty. The analysis results could provide actionable scientific information to water infrastructure managers to improve their adaptation planning and investment decision-making processes.},
author = {Rasoulkhani, Kambiz and Mostafavi, Ali and Reyes, Maria Presa and Batouli, Mostafa},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104636},
issn = {13648152},
journal = {Environmental Modelling and Software},
keywords = {Adaptation planning,Adaptive decision-making,Coastal water infrastructure,Infrastructure resilience,Multi-agent simulation,Sea-level rise},
month = {mar},
pages = {104636},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Resilience planning in hazards–humans–infrastructure nexus: A multi-agent simulation for exploratory assessment of coastal water supply infrastructure adaptation to sea-level rise}},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ratliff2015,
abstract = {The elevation and extent of coastal marshes are dictated by the interplay between the rate of relative sea-level rise (RRSLR), surface accretion by inorganic sediment deposition, and organic soil production by plants. These accretion processes respond to changes in local and global forcings, such as sediment delivery to the coast, nutrient concentrations, and atmospheric CO2, but their relative importance for marsh resilience to increasing RRSLR remains unclear. In particular, marshes up-take atmospheric CO2 at high rates, thereby playing a major role in the global carbon cycle, but the morphologic expression of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, an imminent aspect of climate change, has not yet been isolated and quantified. Using the available observational literature and a spatially explicit ecomorphodynamic model, we explore marsh responses to increased atmospheric CO2, relative to changes in inorganic sediment availability and elevated nitrogen levels. We find that marsh vegetation response to foreseen elevated atmospheric CO2 is similar in magnitude to the response induced by a varying inorganic sediment concentration, and that it increases the threshold RRSLR initiating marsh submergence by up to 60{\%} in the range of forcings explored. Furthermore, we find that marsh responses are inherently spatially dependent, and cannot be adequately captured through 0-dimensional representations of marsh dynamics. Our results imply that coastal marshes, and the major carbon sink they represent, are significantly more resilient to foreseen climatic changes than previously thought.},
author = {Ratliff, Katherine M. and Braswell, Anna E. and Marani, Marco},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1516286112},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Atmospheric CO2,CO2 fertilization,Coastal dynamics,Coastal marshes,Sea-level rise},
month = {dec},
number = {51},
pages = {15580--15584},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Spatial response of coastal marshes to increased atmospheric CO2}},
volume = {112},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Ratnayake2019,
author = {Ratnayake, H. U. and Kearney, M. R. and Govekar, P. and Karoly, D. and Welbergen, J. A.},
doi = {10.1111/acv.12476},
issn = {13679430},
journal = {Animal Conservation},
keywords = {ACCESS‐R,Australian flying‐foxes,Pteropus spp.,climate change,extreme weather events,heat stress,heatwaves},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {386--395},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Forecasting wildlife die-offs from extreme heat events}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/acv.12476},
volume = {22},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Raymond9999,
author = {Raymond, Colin and Horton, Radley M. and Zscheischler, Jakob and Martius, Olivia and AghaKouchak, Amir and Balch, Jennifer and Bowen, Steven G. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Hess, Jeremy and Kornhuber, Kai and Oppenheimer, Michael and Ruane, Alex C. and Wahl, Thomas and White, Kathleen},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0790-4},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {611--621},
title = {{Understanding and managing connected extreme events}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0790-4},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Reboita2018a,
abstract = {The value added from dynamic downscaling in climate projections of extratropical cyclones over the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) is evaluated. For this purpose, the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) is nested in the Hadley Global Environment Model 2 ? Earth System (HadGEM2?ES) global climate model under the RCP8.5 scenario. The analyses focus on three time slices: the present (1979?2005), near future (NF: 2020?2050) and far future (FF: 2070?2098) climates. The cyclone tracking used an algorithm that searches for minima of relative vorticity at 925?hPa. Simulations of the present climate are compared to data from an ensemble of five reanalyses (ERA?40, ERA?Interim, NCEP?NCAR, NCEP?DOE and CFSR). For present climate, there is good agreement among reanalyses and models in associating austral winter and summer with higher and lower cyclone frequency, respectively. In addition, the simulations present the mean features of the cyclones (lifetime, distance travelled and mean velocity) as similar to those of the reanalysis. Moreover, RegCM4 outperforms the HadGEM2?ES by simulating more realistically the spatial pattern of the cyclogenesis density over the SAO, which indicates value added from the RegCM4 downscaling. For the future climates, a decrease is projected for the annual frequency of cyclones, which reaches ?6.5{\%} (?3.6{\%}) in RegCM4 (HadGEM2?ES) in the NF and ?11.4{\%} (?10.4{\%}) in the FF. Future projections do not indicate changes in the mean intensity of the cyclones. The negative trend of the cyclone frequency affects the precipitation. For FF, a decrease of approximately 15{\%} in the precipitation associated with cyclones is projected.},
author = {Reboita, Michelle S. and da Rocha, Rosmeri P. and de Souza, Marcelo R. and Llopart, Marta},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5468},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {may},
number = {6},
pages = {2866--2879},
title = {{Extratropical cyclones over the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean: HadGEM2-ES and RegCM4 projections}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5468},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Reboita2014,
abstract = {This study shows climate projections of air temperature and precipitation over South America (SA) from the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) nested in ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global models. The projections consider the A1B scenario from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and three time-slices: present (1960–1990), near- (2010–2040), and far-future (2070–2100) climates. In the future, RegCM3 projections indicate general warming throughout all SA and seasons, which is more pronounced in the far-future period. In this late period the RegCM3 projections indicate that the negative trend of precipitation over northern SA is also higher. In addition, a precipitation increase over southeastern SA is projected, mainly during summer and spring. The lifecycle of the South American monsoon (SAM) was also investigated in the present and future climates. In the near-future, the projections show a slight delay (one pentad) of the beginning of the rainy season, resulting in a small reduction of the SAM length. In the far-future, there is no agreement between projections related to the SAM features.},
author = {Reboita, Michelle Sim{\~{o}}es and da Rocha, Rosmeri Porf{\'{i}}rio and Dias, C{\'{a}}ssia Gabriele and Ynoue, Rita Yuri},
doi = {10.1155/2014/376738},
issn = {1687-9309},
journal = {Advances in Meteorology},
pages = {1--17},
publisher = {Hindawi Publishing Corporation},
title = {{Climate Projections for South America: RegCM3 Driven by HadCM3 and ECHAM5}},
url = {http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/376738/},
volume = {2014},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Reboita2020b,
author = {Reboita, Michelle Sim{\~{o}}es and Reale, Marco and da Rocha, Rosmeri P and Giorgi, Filippo and Giuliani, Graziano and Coppola, Erika and Nino, Rosa Beatriz Luna and Llopart, Marta and Torres, Jose Abraham and Cavazos, Tereza},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05317-z},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1533--1549},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05317-z},
volume = {57},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Refatti2019,
author = {Refatti, Jo{\~{a}}o Paulo and de Avila, Luis Antonio and Camargo, Edinalvo Rabaioli and Ziska, Lewis Hans and Oliveira, Claudia and Salas-Perez, Reiofeli and Rouse, Christopher Edward and Roma-Burgos, Nilda},
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2019.00529},
issn = {1664-462X},
journal = {Frontiers in Plant Science},
month = {may},
pages = {529},
title = {{High [CO2] and Temperature Increase Resistance to Cyhalofop-Butyl in Multiple-Resistant Echinochloa colona}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpls.2019.00529/full},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@misc{Reid2009,
abstract = {Recent research has shown that there are many effects of climate change on aeroallergens and thus allergic diseases in humans. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration acts as a fertilizer for plant growth. The fertilizing effects of carbon dioxide, as well as increased temperatures from climate change, increase pollen production and the allergen content of pollen grains. In addition, higher temperatures are changing the timing and duration of the pollen season. As regional climates change, plants can move into new areas and changes in atmospheric circulation can blow pollen-and spore-containing dust to new areas, thus introducing people to allergens to which they have not been exposed previously. Climate change also influences the concentrations of airborne pollutants, which alone, and in conjunction with aeroallergens, can exacerbate asthma or other respiratory illnesses. The few epidemiological analyses of meteorological factors, aeroallergens, and allergic diseases demonstrate the pathways through which climate can exert its influence on aeroallergens and allergic diseases. In addition to the need for more research, there is the imperative to take preventive and adaptive actions to address the onset and exacerbation of allergic diseases associated with climate variability and change.},
author = {Reid, Colleen E. and Gamble, Janet L.},
booktitle = {EcoHealth},
doi = {10.1007/s10393-009-0261-x},
issn = {16129202},
keywords = {Allergens,Allergic,Asthma,Atopic,Dermatitis,Greenhouse effect,Prevention and control,Rhinitis,Seasonal},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {458--470},
pmid = {19908096},
title = {{Aeroallergens, allergic disease, and climate change: Impacts and adaptation}},
url = {https://www.infona.pl//resource/bwmeta1.element.springer-9a1a2d22-77a6-3342-97da-6010a75f40a2},
volume = {6},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Reinecke2015,
abstract = {Environmental policies are broadly claimed to rely on sound scientific evidence because of the complexity, the uncertainty and the diverging political stakes that characterize issues like biodiversity decline or climate change. Classical advisory formats like assessments or standing advisory bodies have proliferated widely - especially at the global and national levels - yet exert only a limited influence on political decision-making, particularly in sub-national and local implementation contexts. Against this background, scholars have called for 'bottom-up' approaches to Science-policy interfaces that move from 'problem to policy'. In the area of climate change, numerous 'climate services' have evolved at national, sub-national and even local levels, with the promise of being more decision-oriented. Four climate services in three European countries (the United Kingdom, Germany and Switzerland) are investigated regarding whether and how they institutionalize and enact knowledge brokerage in a credible, salient and legitimate way. Focusing on the institutional and strategic design principles of this advisory setting in climate policy, insights are generated for the biodiversity policy field, where comparable settings are still broadly lacking.},
author = {Reinecke, Sabine},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2015.08.007},
isbn = {1462-9011},
issn = {14629011},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Policy},
month = {dec},
pages = {513--521},
title = {{Knowledge brokerage designs and practices in four european climate services: A role model for biodiversity policies?}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901115300617},
volume = {54},
year = {2015}
}
@misc{ReisingerA.GarschagenM.MachK.J.PathakM.PoloczanskaE.vanAalstM.RuaneA.C.MintenbeckK.PedaceR.RojasCorradiM.VinerD.VeraC.ONeillB.PortnerH.-O.SillmannJ.JonesR.Ranasinghe2020,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {Reisinger, A. and Garschagen, M. and Mach, K.J. and Pathak, M. and Poloczanska, E. and van Aalst, M. and Ruane, A.C. and Mintenbeck, K. and Pedace, R. and {Rojas Corradi}, M. and Viner, D. and Vera, C. and O'Neill, B. and P{\"{o}}rtner, H.-O. and Sillmann, J. and Jones, R. and Ranasinghe, R.},
pages = {15},
publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
title = {{The Concept of Risk in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: A Summary of Cross-Working Group Discussions}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/event/guidance-note-concept-of-risk-in-the-6ar-cross-wg-discussions},
year = {2020}
}
@incollection{Reisinger2014,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Reisinger, Andy and Kitching, Roger L. and Chiew, Francis and Hughes, Lesley and Newton, Paul C D and Schuster, Sandra S. and Tait, Andrew and Whetton, Penny},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415386.005},
editor = {Barros, V.R. and Field, C.B. and Dokken, D.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Mach, K.J. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and L.L.White},
isbn = {9781107058163},
pages = {1371--1438},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Australasia}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Ren2018,
abstract = {Abstract. Solar radiation, especially photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), is the main energy source of plant photosynthesis, and the diffuse component can enhance canopy light use efficiency, thus increasing ecosystem productivity. In order to predict the terrestrial ecosystem productivity precisely, we not only need global radiation and PAR as driving variables, but also need to treat diffuse radiation and diffuse PAR explicitly in ecosystem models. Therefore, we generated a series of radiation datasets, including global radiation, diffuse radiation, PAR, and diffuse PAR of China from 1981 to 2010, based on the observations of the China Meteorology Administration (CMA) and the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN). The dataset should be useful for the analysis of the spatiotemporal variations of solar radiation in China and the impact of diffuse radiation on terrestrial ecosystem productivity based on ecosystem models. The dataset is freely available from Zenodo on the following website: https://zenodo.org/record/1198894{\#}.Wx6–C{\_}MwWo (https://doi.org/10.11922/sciencedb.555, Ren et al., 2018).},
author = {Ren, Xiaoli and He, Honglin and Zhang, Li and Yu, Guirui},
doi = {10.5194/essd-10-1217-2018},
issn = {1866-3516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {1217--1226},
title = {{Global radiation, photosynthetically active radiation, and the diffuse component dataset of China, 1981–2010}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/1217/2018/},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Ren2011,
author = {Ren, Wei and Tian, Hanqin and Tao, Bo and Chappelka, Art and Sun, Ge and Lu, Chaoqun and Liu, Mingliang and Chen, Guangsheng and Xu, Xiaofeng},
doi = {10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00606.x},
issn = {1466822X},
journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
keywords = {China,climate change,dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM),forest ecosystem,net carbon exchange (NCE),net primary production (NPP),ozone (O3)},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {391--406},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on net primary productivity and net carbon exchange of China's forest ecosystems}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00606.x},
volume = {20},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Reyer2017,
author = {Reyer, Christopher P.O. and Otto, Ilona M. and Adams, Sophie and Albrecht, Torsten and Baarsch, Florent and Cartsburg, Matti and Coumou, Dim and Eden, Alexander and Ludi, Eva and Marcus, Rachel and Mengel, Matthias and Mosello, Beatrice and Robinson, Alexander and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Serdeczny, Olivia and Stagl, Judith},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-015-0893-z},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
month = {aug},
number = {6},
pages = {1639--1650},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-015-0893-z},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Reyer2017d,
author = {Reyer, Christopher P.O. and Adams, Sophie and Albrecht, Torsten and Baarsch, Florent and Boit, Alice and {Canales Trujillo}, Nella and Cartsburg, Matti and Coumou, Dim and Eden, Alexander and Fernandes, Erick and Langerwisch, Fanny and Marcus, Rachel and Mengel, Matthias and Mira-Salama, Daniel and Perette, Mah{\'{e}} and Pereznieto, Paola and Rammig, Anja and Reinhardt, Julia and Robinson, Alexander and Rocha, Marcia and Sakschewski, Boris and Schaeffer, Michiel and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Serdeczny, Olivia and Thonicke, Kirsten},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
month = {aug},
number = {6},
pages = {1601--1621},
title = {{Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Rhoades2018,
author = {Rhoades, Alan M. and Ullrich, Paul A. and Zarzycki, Colin M.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3606-0},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {261--288},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Projecting 21st century snowpack trends in western USA mountains using variable-resolution CESM}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3606-0},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{acp-14-5735-2014,
author = {Ridley, D A and Heald, C L and Prospero, J M},
doi = {10.5194/acp-14-5735-2014},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
number = {11},
pages = {5735--5747},
title = {{What controls the recent changes in African mineral dust aerosol across the Atlantic?}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/14/5735/2014/},
volume = {14},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Riebesell2018,
abstract = {Ocean acidification, the change in seawater carbonate chemistry due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, affects the physiology of marine organisms in multiple ways1. Diverse competitive and trophic interactions transform the metabolic responses to changes in community composition, seasonal succession and potentially geographical distribution of species. The health of ocean ecosystems depends on whether basic biotic functions are maintained, ecosystem engineers and keystone species are retained, and the spread of nuisance species is avoided2. Here, we show in a field experiment that the toxic microalga Vicicitus globosus has a selective advantage under ocean acidification, increasing its abundance in natural plankton communities at CO2 levels higher than 600 µatm and developing blooms above 800 µatm CO2. The mass development of V. globosus has had a dramatic impact on the plankton community, preventing the development of the micro- and mesozooplankton communities, thereby disrupting trophic transfer of primary produced organic matter. This has prolonged the residence of particulate matter in the water column and caused a strong decline in export flux. Considering its wide geographical distribution and confirmed role in fish kills3, the proliferation of V. globosus under the IPCC4 CO2 emission representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 to RCP8.5) scenarios may pose an emergent threat to coastal communities, aquaculture and fisheries. Ocean acidification will result in biological winners and losers. A mesocosm experiment shows that a toxic algal species is a winner under ocean acidification, with implications for the marine food web and, more generally, ecosystem services.},
author = {Riebesell, Ulf and Aberle-Malzahn, Nicole and Achterberg, Eric P. and Alguer{\'{o}}-Mu{\~{n}}iz, Mar{\'{i}}a and Alvarez-Fernandez, Santiago and Ar{\'{i}}stegui, Javier and Bach, Lennart T. and Boersma, Maarten and Boxhammer, Tim and Guan, Wanchun and Haunost, Mathias and Horn, Henriette G. and L{\"{o}}scher, Carolin R. and Ludwig, Andrea and Spisla, Carsten and Sswat, Michael and Stange, Paul and Taucher, Jan},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0344-1},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Community ecology,Marine biology,Marine chemistry,change ecology},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1082--1086},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Toxic algal bloom induced by ocean acidification disrupts the pelagic food web}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0344-1},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Risser2017,
author = {Risser, Mark D. and Wehner, Michael F.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075888},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {12457--12464},
title = {{Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL075888 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075888},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{10.2112/SI85-109.1,
abstract = {Ritphring, S.; Somphong, C.; Udo, K., and Kazama, S., 2018. Projections of future beach loss due to sea level rise for sandy beaches along Thailand's coastlines. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 541–545. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Coastline recession caused by sea level rise due to climate change has become one of the most significant issues worldwide. Thailand's coastlines is also likely to face erosion, especially in the low-lying areas, and its future projection due to sea level rise is necessary. This study compiled a database of beach characteristics, including grain size diameter, beach slope and beach width, to assess the projections of future beach loss along Thailand's coastlines against sea level rise scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in 2081–2100, relative to a reference period 1986–2005 by using the Bruun rule. Future national beach loss rates were projected to be 45.8$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} for RCP2.6, 55.0$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} for RCP4.5, 56.9$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} for RCP6.0 and 71.8$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} for RCP8.5. In addition, the rate against the sea level scenarios projected by each CMIP5 model for RCP4.5 ranges from 49.1$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} for MPI-ESM-LR to 73.4$\backslash$$\backslash${\%} for MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Based on the current beach situation, sandy beaches in 8 and 23 out of 51 zones will disappear for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. These findings will help governors and stakeholders develop adaptation strategies against beach loss due to sea level rise.},
author = {Ritphring, Sompratana and Somphong, Chatuphorn and Udo, Keiko and Kazama, So},
doi = {10.2112/SI85-109.1},
issn = {0749-0208},
journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},
month = {may},
pages = {541--545},
title = {{Projections of Future Beach Loss due to Sea Level Rise for Sandy Beaches along Thailand's Coastlines}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.2112/SI85-109.1 http://www.bioone.org/doi/10.2112/SI85-109.1},
volume = {85},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rivera2014,
abstract = {Based on 56 rainfall stations, which cover the period 1961-2008, we analyzed the presence of trends in the drought-affected area over southern South America (SSA) at different time scales. In order to define drought conditions, we used the standardized precipitation index, which was calculated on time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. The trends were estimated following both a linear and a non-linear approach. The non-linear approach was based on the residual of the empirical mode decomposition, a recently proposed methodology, which is robust in presence of non-stationary data. This assessment indicates the existence of reversals in the trends of the drought affected, area around the 1990s, from decreasing trends during the first period to increasing trends during the recent period. This is indicative of the existence of a low-frequency variability that modulates regional precipitation patterns at different temporal scales, and warns about possible future consequences in the social and economic sectors if trends towards an increase in the drought affected area continue.},
author = {Rivera, Juan and Penalba, Olga},
doi = {10.3390/cli2040264},
issn = {2225-1154},
journal = {Climate},
keywords = {Drought,Southern South America,Spatial patterns,Standardized precipitation index,Trends},
month = {sep},
number = {4},
pages = {264--278},
title = {{Trends and Spatial Patterns of Drought Affected Area in Southern South America}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/2/4/264},
volume = {2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Rivera2017,
abstract = {During the period 2010-2015, the semi-arid Central Andes in Argentina (CAA) experienced one of the most severe and long-lasting hydrological droughts on record. Since the snowmelt is the most important source of water, the reduced snowfall over the mountains propagated the drought signal through the streamflows in the adjacent foothills east of the Andes ranges. Motivated by the widespread impacts on the socio-economic activities in the region, this study aims to characterize the recent hydrological drought in terms of streamflow deficits. Based on streamflow data from 20 basins, we used the standardized streamflow index (SSI) to characterize hydrological droughts during the period 1971-2016. We found that the regional extent of the 2010-2015 hydrological drought was limited to the basins located north of 38° S, with mean duration of 67 months and maximum drought severity exhibiting a heterogeneous pattern in terms of spatial distribution and time of occurrence. The drought event reached extreme conditions in 14 of the 15 basins in the CAA, being record-breaking drought in six of the basins. This condition was likely driven by a cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean resembling La Ni{\~{n}}a conditions, which generated a decrease in snowfall over the Andes due to suppressed frontal activity.},
author = {Rivera, Juan and Penalba, Olga and Villalba, Ricardo and Araneo, Diego},
doi = {10.3390/w9090652},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {Argentina,Central Andes,Drought,Hydroclimatic variability,Hydrological drought,Semi-arid region,Snowmelt,Standardized streamflow index,Streamflow,Water resources},
month = {aug},
number = {9},
pages = {652},
title = {{Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2010–2015 Extreme Hydrological Drought across the Central Andes, Argentina}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/9/9/652},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Roberts2015a,
abstract = {The U.K. on Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe (PRACE) Weather-Resolving Simulations of Climate for Global Environmental Risk (UPSCALE) project, using PRACE resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3 (GA3) configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km), and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high-impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and northwestern Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African easterly waves and the African easterly jet. However, the intensity of the modeled tropical cyclones as measured by 10-m wind speed remains weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50{\%} in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, whereas in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more strong storms.},
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Roberts, Malcolm J and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Mizielinski, Matthew S and Demory, Marie-Estelle and Schiemann, Reinhard and Strachan, Jane and Hodges, Kevin and Bell, Ray and Camp, Joanne},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00131.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {574--596},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Tropical Cyclones in the UPSCALE Ensemble of High-Resolution Global Climate Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00131.1 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/2/jcli-d-14-00131.1.xml},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Roberts2020,
abstract = {Abstract Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950?2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.},
author = {Roberts, Malcolm John and Camp, Joanne and Seddon, Jon and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Hodges, Kevin and Vanni{\`{e}}re, Beno{\^{i}}t and Mecking, Jenny and Haarsma, Rein and Bellucci, Alessio and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Caron, Louis-Philippe and Chauvin, Fabrice and Terray, Laurent and Valcke, Sophie and Moine, Marie-Pierre and Putrasahan, Dian and Roberts, Christopher D and Senan, Retish and Zarzycki, Colin and Ullrich, Paul and Yamada, Yohei and Mizuta, Ryo and Kodama, Chihiro and Fu, Dan and Zhang, Qiuying and Danabasoglu, Gokhan and Rosenbloom, Nan and Wang, Hong and Wu, Lixin},
doi = {10.1029/2020GL088662},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {CMIP6,future change,high resolution,model bias,tracking algorithms,tropical cyclones},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {e2020GL088662},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088662 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL088662},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Robinson2017,
abstract = {This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of extreme precipitation events under current and future climate scenarios on landslides. Rainfall-triggered landslides are analyzed primarily us...},
author = {Robinson, Joe D. and Vahedifard, Farshid and AghaKouchak, Amir},
doi = {10.1139/cgj-2015-0602},
issn = {0008-3674},
journal = {Canadian Geotechnical Journal},
keywords = {changement climatique,climate change,couplage hydrom{\'{e}}canique,extreme precipitation,glissements de terrain,hydromechanical coupling,infiltration transitoire,landslides,mod{\'{e}}lisation num{\'{e}}rique,non stationnaire,nonstationary,numerical modeling,pr{\'{e}}cipitation extr{\^{e}}me,sol insatur{\'{e}},transient seepage,unsaturated soil},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {117--127},
publisher = {NRC Research Press},
title = {{Rainfall-triggered slope instabilities under a changing climate: comparative study using historical and projected precipitation extremes}},
url = {http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cgj-2015-0602},
volume = {54},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Robinson2020,
author = {Robinson, Sharon A. and Klekociuk, Andrew R. and King, Diana H. and {Pizarro Rojas}, Marisol and Z{\'{u}}{\~{n}}iga, Gustavo E. and Bergstrom, Dana M.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.15083},
issn = {1354-1013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {3178--3180},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{The 2019/2020 summer of Antarctic heatwaves}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15083},
volume = {26},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Rohat2019,
abstract = {The majority of assessments of future heat-related health risk are based on projections of heat hazards superimposed solely on current socioeconomic conditions, thus neglecting the potential contribution of drivers of heat stress risk other than climate change. Partly to address this drawback, the climate change research community has developed a new scenario framework, made up of distinct sets of climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The few assessments of future heat-related health risk that have employed this new framework have focused on changes in population exposure but have often not accounted for future populations' vulnerability. In this paper, we combine European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with Representative Concentration Pathways to provide spatially explicit European projections of heat-related health risk that account for multiple changes in both socioeconomic and climatic conditions. In doing so, we also address the challenge of accounting for projections of determinants of vulnerability under varying levels of socioeconomic development. Results reveal that the proportion of the European population at very high risk of heat stress will show a steady increase – from 0.4{\%} currently to 20.3{\%}, 32.6{\%}, or 48.4{\%} in 2050 depending on the scenario combination – unless substantial political changes occur rapidly and steadily shift the current socioeconomic development pathway towards sustainability. Ambitious mitigation policies associated with rapid technological progress to enhance human capital could also moderate future heat-related health challenges. Such challenges are unevenly spread across Europe, with the Mediterranean region and Scandinavia being respectively the most and the least impacted regions. Future heat-related health challenges are substantially influenced by varying levels of socioeconomic development, primarily through changes in vulnerability – changes in population exposure being only of secondary importance. The former may even have a more significant impact on future heat stress risk than climate change, particularly in the British Isles and in the Iberian Peninsula. Thus, there is an undeniable necessity to consider the future state of vulnerability – and its uncertainties under varying socioeconomic scenarios – when assessing future heat-related health challenges and designing health adaptation strategies.},
author = {Rohat, Guillaume and Flacke, Johannes and Dosio, Alessandro and Pedde, Simona and Dao, Hy and van Maarseveen, Martin},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.09.013},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {Climate Change,Europe,Health risk,Heat stress,Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,Vulnerability},
month = {jan},
pages = {45--59},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Influence of changes in socioeconomic and climatic conditions on future heat-related health challenges in Europe}},
volume = {172},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rohini2016,
author = {Rohini, P and Rajeevan, M and Srivastava, A. K.},
doi = {10.1038/srep26153},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {sep},
number = {1},
pages = {26153},
title = {{On the Variability and Increasing Trends of Heat Waves over India}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/srep26153 http://www.nature.com/articles/srep26153},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Rojas2012,
abstract = {We assess future flood hazard in view of climate change at pan-European scale using a large ensemble of climate projections. The ensemble consists of simulations from 12 climate experiments conducted within the ENSEMBLES project, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 1961–2100. Prior to driving the hydrological model LISFLOOD, climate simulations are corrected for bias in precipitation and temperature using a Quantile Mapping (QM) method. For time slices of 30 years, a Gumbel distribution is fitted by the maximum likelihood method through the simulated annual maximum discharges. Changes in extreme river flows, here exemplified by the 100-year discharge (Q100), are then analyzed with respect to a control period (1961–1990). We assess the uncertainty arising from using alternative climate experiments to force LISFLOOD and from the fitting of extreme value distributions. Results show large discrepancies in the magnitude of change in Q100among the hydrological simulations for different climate experiments, with some regions even showing an opposite signal of change. Due to the low signal-to-noise ratio in some areas the projected changes showed not all to be statistically significant. Despite this, western Europe, the British Isles and northern Italy show a robust increase in future flood hazard, mainly due to a pronounced increase in extreme rainfall. A decrease inQ100, on the other hand, is projected in eastern Germany, Poland, southern Sweden and, to a lesser extent, the Baltic countries. In these areas, the signal is dominated by the strong reduction in snowmelt induced floods, which offsets the increase in average and extreme precipitation.},
author = {Rojas, R. and Feyen, L. and Bianchi, A. and Dosio, A.},
doi = {10.1029/2012JD017461},
isbn = {0148-0227},
issn = {01480227},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {sep},
pages = {D17109},
title = {{Assessment of future flood hazard in Europe using a large ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012JD017461},
volume = {117},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Rojas2014a,
abstract = {A literature review of river floods from 1574 to 2012, allows us to analyze and identify the causes or trigger factors, recurrence periods, spatial distribution and geographical effects of flooding within continental Chile. Five types of flooding are identified, based on the triggering factor: volcanic processes, snow/glacial processes, landslides, anthropic interventions and rainfalls. Rainfall is responsible for 71{\%} of flooding events during the period studied. We were able to spatial patterns at a national level, allowing us to define five homogenous zones. The area with the most frequent events corresponds to the Mediterranean climatic domain, which has been characterized by intense storms and environmental changes over the last three decades. An increase in catastrophic flooding from the second half of the 20th century to the present was observed, primarily associated with nivo-glacial processes and human interventions.},
author = {Rojas, Octavio and Mardones, Mar{\'{i}}a and Arum{\'{i}}, Jos{\'{e}} Luis and Aguayo, Mauricio},
doi = {10.4067/S0718-34022014000100012},
issn = {0718-3402},
journal = {Revista de geograf{\'{i}}a Norte Grande},
keywords = {Chile,Flooding,Historical floods,Natural hazards,Types of flooding},
month = {may},
number = {57},
pages = {177--192},
title = {{Una revisi{\'{o}}n de inundaciones fluviales en Chile, per{\'{i}}odo 1574–2012: causas, recurrencia y efectos geogr{\'{a}}ficos}},
url = {http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci{\_}arttext{\&}pid=S0718-34022014000100012{\&}lng=en{\&}nrm=iso{\&}tlng=en},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Rojas2017,
abstract = {Urban flooding is an increasing problem in developing countries, thus understanding flood dynamics is necessary to establish guidelines on urban development and flood management. This paper studied the lower reaches of the Andalien River basin, situated on the coast of the Greater Concepcion Metropolitan Area (CMA), the second most urbanized area in Chile. This basin experienced a record 21 flood events in the last 50 years. Patterns in the evolution of urban growth were evaluated using a historical analysis (1943–2011) that specifically focused on how these patterns interact with zones that are prone to flooding over different return periods. Our model applied to the CMA, but is sufficiently transversal to be applied in similar areas. It was determined that the built-up area increased by 1457 ha and had an urban form vulnerable to future flooding due to its location on landforms exposed to flood risk, with altitudes of {\textless}8 m and slopes of {\textless}0.5°. The bankfull channel of the Andalien River lost 18.4{\%} of its area. Upstream, management of the river decreased smaller floods for a return period of two, five, and 10 years; however, for a return period of 500 years, risk remained at high levels. These findings help to rethink and improve urban planning and the response of Chilean cities in relation to flood hazard.},
author = {Rojas, Octavio and Mardones, Mar{\'{i}}a and Rojas, Carolina and Mart{\'{i}}nez, Carolina and Flores, Luis},
doi = {10.3390/su9020195},
issn = {2071-1050},
journal = {Sustainability},
keywords = {Andalien River,HEC-RAS,LIDAR,floods,natural disasters,natural risks,urban growth},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {195},
publisher = {MDPI, Open Access Journal},
title = {{Urban Growth and Flood Disasters in the Coastal River Basin of South-Central Chile (1943–2011)}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/2/195},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Rojas2019a,
abstract = {A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability—the time of emergence (TOE)—is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early ({\textless}2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1–14{\%} (3–31{\%}) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically.},
author = {Rojas, Maisa and Lambert, Fabrice and Ramirez-Villegas, Julian and Challinor, Andrew J.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1811463116},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Agriculture,CMIP5,Climate change,Natural variability,Precipitation},
month = {apr},
number = {14},
pages = {6673--6678},
pmid = {30858318},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century}},
url = {www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1811463116},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rojas2013,
abstract = {This study presents the first appraisal of the socio-economic impacts of river floods in the European Union in view of climate and socio-economic changes. The assessment is based on two trajectories: (a) no adaptation, where the current levels of protection are kept constant, and (b) adaptation, where the level of protection is increased to defend against future flooding events. As a basis for our analysis we use an ensemble-based pan-European flood hazard assessment for present and future conditions. Socio-economic impacts are estimated by combining flood inundation maps with information on assets exposure and vulnerability. Ensemble-based results indicate that current expected annual population affected of ca. 200,000 is projected to increase up to 360,000 due to the effects of socio-economic development and climate change. Under the no adaptation trajectory current expected annual damages of €5.5billion/year are projected to reach €98billion/year by the 2080s due to the combined effects of socio-economic and climate change. Under the adaptation trajectory the avoided damages (benefits) amount to €53billion/year by the 2080s. An analysis of the potential costs of adaptation associated with the increase in protection suggests that adaptation could be highly cost-effective. There is, however, a wide range around these central numbers reflecting the variability in projected climate. Analysis at the country level shows high damages, and by association high costs of adaptation, in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Romania, Hungary and Czech Republic. At the country level, there is an even wider range around these central values, thus, pointing to a need to consider climate uncertainty in formulating practical adaptation strategies.},
author = {Rojas, Rodrigo and Feyen, Luc and Watkiss, Paul},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.006},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {dec},
number = {6},
pages = {1737--1751},
title = {{Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378013001416 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378013001416},
volume = {23},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Rojas-Downing2017,
abstract = {Global demand for livestock products is expected to double by 2050, mainly due to improvement in the worldwide standard of living. Meanwhile, climate change is a threat to livestock production because of the impact on quality of feed crop and forage, water availability, animal and milk production, livestock diseases, animal reproduction, and biodiversity. This study reviews the global impacts of climate change on livestock production, the contribution of livestock production to climate change, and specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the livestock sector. Livestock production will be limited by climate variability as animal water consumption is expected to increase by a factor of three, demand for agricultural lands increase due to need for 70{\%} growth in production, and food security concern since about one-third of the global cereal harvest is used for livestock feed. Meanwhile, the livestock sector contributes 14.5{\%} of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, driving further climate change. Consequently, the livestock sector will be a key player in the mitigation of GHG emissions and improving global food security. Therefore, in the transition to sustainable livestock production, there is a need for: a) assessments related to the use of adaptation and mitigation measures tailored to the location and livestock production system in use, and b) policies that support and facilitate the implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.},
author = {Rojas-Downing, M. Melissa and Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan and Harrigan, Timothy and Woznicki, Sean A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2017.02.001},
issn = {22120963},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
month = {jan},
pages = {145--163},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S221209631730027X},
volume = {16},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Rokaya2018,
abstract = {Ice-jam floods (IJFs) are important hydrological and hydraulic events in the northern hemisphere that are of major concern for citizens, authorities, insurance companies and government agencies. In recent years, there have been advances in assessing and quantifying climate change impacts on river ice processes, however, an understanding of climate change and regulation impacts on the timing and magnitude of IJFs remains limited. This study presents a global overview of IJF case studies and discusses IJF risks in North America, one of the most IJF prone regions according to literature. Then an assessment of shifts in the timing and magnitude of IJFs in Canada is presented analyzing flow data from 1107 hydrometric stations across Canada for the period from 1903 to 2015. The analyses show clear signals of climate change and regulation impacts in the timing and magnitude of IJFs, particularly in small basins.},
author = {Rokaya, Prabin and Budhathoki, Sujata and Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-24057-z},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Hydrology,Natural hazards},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {5834},
pmid = {29643438},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Trends in the Timing and Magnitude of Ice-Jam Floods in Canada}},
url = {www.nature.com/scientificreports http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-24057-z},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Romanovsky2018,
author = {Romanovsky, Vladimir and Smith, Sharon and Isaksen, Ketil and Shiklomanov, Nikolay and Streletskiy, Dmitry and Kholodov, A and Christiansen, Hanne and Drozdov, D and Malkova, G and Marchenko, Sergey},
doi = {10.1175/2018BAMSStateoftheClimate.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {8},
pages = {S161--S165},
title = {{Terrestrial Permafrost [in “State of the Climate in 2017”]}},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{RomanovskyV.E.SmithS.L.IsaksenK.NylandK.E.KholodovA.LShiklomanovN.I.StreletskiyD.A.FarquharsonL.M.DrozdovD.S.MalkovaG.V.Christiansen2020,
author = {Romanovsky, V.E. and Smith, S.L. and Isaksen, K. and Nyland, K. E. and Kholodov, A. L and Shiklomanov, N. I. and Streletskiy, D. A. and Farquharson, L. M. and Drozdov, D. S. and Malkova, G. V. and Christiansen, G. V.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0086.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {8},
pages = {S265--S271},
title = {{Terrestrial permafrost [in “State of the Climate in 2019”]}},
volume = {101},
year = {2020}
}
@article{ROMERA2017134,
author = {Romera, Raquel and Gaertner, Miguel {\'{A}}ngel and S{\'{a}}nchez, Enrique and Dom{\'{i}}nguez, Marta and Gonz{\'{a}}lez-Alem{\'{a}}n, Juan Jes{\'{u}}s and Miglietta, Mario Marcello},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.008},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Medicanes,Mediterranean cyclones,Regional climate models},
month = {apr},
pages = {134--143},
title = {{Climate change projections of medicanes with a large multi-model ensemble of regional climate models}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116304350 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818116304350},
volume = {151},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Romero2017,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Romero, R and Emanuel, K},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0255.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
language = {English},
number = {1},
pages = {279--299},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Climate Change and Hurricane-Like Extratropical Cyclones: Projections for North Atlantic Polar Lows and Medicanes Based on CMIP5 Models}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/1/jcli-d-16-0255.1.xml},
volume = {30},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Romero-Lankao2014,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Romero-Lankao, P. and Smith, J.B. and Davidson, D.J. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Kinney, P.L. and Kirshen, P. and Kovacs, P. and {Villiers Ruiz}, L.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415386.006},
editor = {Barros, V.R. and Field, C.B. and Dokken, D.J. and Mastrandrea, M.D. and Mach, K.J. and Bilir, T.E. and Chatterjee, M. and Ebi, K.L. and Estrada, Y.O. and Genova, R.C. and Girma, B. and Kissel, E.S. and Levy, A.N. and MacCracken, S. and Mastrandrea, P.R. and L.L.White},
isbn = {9781107058163},
pages = {1439--1498},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{North America}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Romps2014,
abstract = {Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77{\%} of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1{\%}. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 {\{}+/-{\}} 5{\%} per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50{\%} over this century.},
author = {Romps, David M. and Seeley, Jacob T. and Vollaro, David and Molinari, John},
doi = {10.1126/science.1259100},
isbn = {0036-8075},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {nov},
number = {6211},
pages = {851--854},
pmid = {25395536},
title = {{Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1259100 https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1259100},
volume = {346},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Rose2019,
abstract = {In recent years, there has been a large focus on the Arctic due to the rapid changes of the region. Arctic sea level determination is challenging due to the seasonal to permanent sea-ice cover, lack of regional coverage of satellites, satellite instruments ability to measure ice, insufficient geophysical models, residual orbit errors, challenging retracking of satellite altimeter data. We present the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Technical University of Denmark (DTU)/Technischen Universit{\"{a}}t M{\"{u}}nchen (TUM) sea level anomaly (SLA) record based on radar satellite altimetry data in the Arctic Ocean from the European Remote Sensing satellite number 1 (ERS-1) (1991) to CryoSat-2 (2018). We use updated geophysical corrections and a combination of altimeter data: Reprocessing of Altimeter Product for ERS (REAPER) (ERS-1), ALES+ retracker (ERS-2, Envisat), combination of Radar Altimetry Database System (RADS) and DTUs in-house retracker LARS (CryoSat-2). Furthermore, this study focuses on the transition between conventional and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) altimeter data to make a smooth time series regarding the measurement method. We find a sea level rise of 1.54 mm/year from September 1991 to September 2018 with a 95{\%} confidence interval from 1.16 to 1.81 mm/year. ERS-1 data is troublesome and when ignoring this satellite the SLA trend becomes 2.22 mm/year with a 95{\%} confidence interval within 1.67–2.54 mm/year. Evaluating the SLA trends in 5 year intervals show a clear steepening of the SLA trend around 2004. The sea level anomaly record is validated against tide gauges and show good results. Additionally, the time series is split and evaluated in space and time.},
author = {Rose, Stine Kildegaard and Andersen, Ole Baltazar and Passaro, Marcello and Ludwigsen, Carsten Ankj{\ae}r and Schwatke, Christian},
doi = {10.3390/rs11141672},
issn = {2072-4292},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {1672},
title = {{Arctic Ocean Sea Level Record from the Complete Radar Altimetry Era: 1991–2018}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/14/1672},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rosenzweig2002,
abstract = {Recent flooding and heavy precipitation events in the US and worldwide have caused great damage to crop production. If the frequency of these weather extremes were to increase in the near future, as recent trends for the US indicate and as projected by global climate models (e.g., US National Assessment, Overview Report, 2001, The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, National Assesment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; Houghton et al., 2001, IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 335pp.), the cost of crop losses in the coming decades could rise dramatically. Yet current assessments of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have not quantified the negative effects on crop production from increased heavy precipitation and flooding (Impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture, in: US National Assessment Foundation Document, 2001. National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program, Washington DC.). In this work, we modify a dynamic crop model in order to simulate one important effect of heavy precipitation on crop growth, plant damage from excess soil moisture. We compute that US corn production losses due to this factor, already significant under current climate, may double during the next thirty years, causing additional damages totaling an estimated {\$}3 billion per year. These costs may either be borne directly by those impacted or transferred to private or governmental insurance and disaster relief programs.},
author = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Tubiello, Francesco N and Goldberg, Richard and Mills, Evan and Bloomfield, Janine},
doi = {10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00008-0},
issn = {0959-3780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {oct},
number = {3},
pages = {197--202},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378002000080?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {12},
year = {2002}
}
@article{Rosenzweig2014,
abstract = {Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.},
author = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Elliott, Joshua and Deryng, Delphine and Ruane, Alex C and M{\"{u}}ller, Christoph and Arneth, Almut and Boote, Kenneth J and Folberth, Christian and Glotter, Michael and Khabarov, Nikolay and Neumann, Kathleen and Piontek, Franziska and Pugh, Thomas a M and Schmid, Erwin and Stehfest, Elke and Yang, Hong and Jones, James W},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222463110},
isbn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Agricultural,Agricultural: growth {\&} development,Agriculture,Agriculture: methods,Agriculture: statistics {\&} numerical data,Climate Change,Computer Simulation,Crops,Forecasting,Geography,Models,Nitrogen,Nitrogen: analysis,Risk Assessment,Temperature,Theoretical},
month = {mar},
number = {9},
pages = {3268--3273},
pmid = {24344314},
title = {{Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222463110},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@techreport{Rosenzweig2015,
address = {New York, NY, USA},
author = {Rosenzweig, C. and Solecki, W and Romero-Lankao, P and Mehrothra, S and Shakal, S and Bowman, T and {Ali Ibrahim}, S},
isbn = {9781781182192},
issn = {2325-0313},
pages = {25},
publisher = {Urban Climate Change Research Network. Columbia University},
title = {{ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders}},
url = {https://www.uccrn-europe.org/second-uccrn-assessment-report-climate-change-and-cities-arc32-summary-city-leaders},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Rosenzweig2018,
author = {Rosenzweig, Bernice R. and McPhillips, Lauren and Chang, Heejun and Cheng, Chingwen and Welty, Claire and Matsler, Marissa and Iwaniec, David and Davidson, Cliff I.},
doi = {10.1002/wat2.1302},
issn = {2049-1948},
journal = {WIREs Water},
month = {nov},
number = {6},
pages = {e1302},
title = {{Pluvial flood risk and opportunities for resilience}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wat2.1302},
volume = {5},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rosenzweig2014a,
author = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Solecki, William},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.05.003},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {sep},
pages = {395--408},
title = {{Hurricane Sandy and adaptation pathways in New York: Lessons from a first-responder city}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378014000910},
volume = {28},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Rottler2019a,
author = {Rottler, Erwin and Kormann, Christoph and Francke, Till and Bronstert, Axel},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5970},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {apr},
number = {5},
pages = {2556--2568},
title = {{Elevation‐dependent warming in the Swiss Alps 1981–2017: Features, forcings and feedbacks}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.5970},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Rotzoll2013,
abstract = {Sea-level rise brings the risk of coastal flooding from marine waters. This study looks at how rising sea level will affect groundwater balance, which may also cause coastal plain flooding. Taking groundwater into consideration shows that sea-level rise may cause twice the flooding expected from marine waters alone.},
author = {Rotzoll, Kolja and Fletcher, Charles H.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1725},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate change,Hydrogeology,Physical oceanography},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {477--481},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Assessment of groundwater inundation as a consequence of sea-level rise}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1725},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Roudier2014,
abstract = {Abstract. This review summarizes the impacts of climate change on runoff in West Africa, assesses the uncertainty in the projections and describes future research needs for the region. To do so, we constitute a meta-database made of 19 studies and 301 future runoff change values. The future tendency in streamflow developments is overall very uncertain (median of the 301 points is 0{\%} and mean +5.2{\%}), except for (i) the Gambia River, which exhibits a significant negative change (median = −4.5{\%}), and (ii) the Sassandra and the Niger rivers, where the change is positive (+14.4{\%} and +6.1{\%}). A correlation analysis revealed that runoff changes are tightly linked to changes in rainfall (R = 0.49), and to a smaller extent also to changes in potential evapotranspiration. Other parameters than climate – such as the carbon effect on plant water efficiency, land use dynamics or water withdrawals – could also significantly impact on runoff, but they generally do not offset the effects of climate change. In view of the potential changes, the large uncertainty therein and the high vulnerability of the region to such changes, there is an urgent need for integrated studies that quantify the potential effects of these processes on water resources in West Africa and for more accuracy in climate models rainfall projections. We especially underline the lack of information concerning projections of future floods and droughts, and of interannual fluctuations in streamflow.},
author = {Roudier, P. and Ducharne, A. and Feyen, L.},
doi = {10.5194/hess-18-2789-2014},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {2789--2801},
title = {{Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/18/2789/2014/hess-18-2789-2014.pdf https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/18/2789/2014/},
volume = {18},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Roudier2016b,
abstract = {We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models. The results show quite contrasted results between northern and southern Europe. Flood magnitudes are expected to increase significantly south of 60oN, except for some regions (Bulgaria, Poland, south of Spain) where the results are not significant. The sign of these changes are particularly robust in large parts of Romania, Ukraine, Germany, France and North of Spain. North of this line, floods are projected to decrease in most of Finland, NW Russia and North of Sweden, with the exception of southern Sweden and some coastal areas in Norway where floods may increase. The results concerning extreme droughts are less robust, especially for drought duration where the spread of the results among the members is quite high in some areas. Anyway, drought magnitude and duration may increase in Spain, France, Italy, Greece, the Balkans, south of the UK and Ireland. Despite some remarkable differences among the hydrological models' structure and calibration, the results are quite similar from one hydrological model to another. Finally, an analysis of floods and droughts together shows that the impact of a +2°C global warming will be most extreme for France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Albania. These results are particularly robust in southern France and northern Spain.},
author = {Roudier, Philippe and Andersson, Jafet C.M. and Donnelly, Chantal and Feyen, Luc and Greuell, Wouter and Ludwig, Fulco},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1570-4},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric Sciences,Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {341--355},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1570-4},
volume = {135},
year = {2016}
}
@article{10.3389/feart.2019.00331,
abstract = {Glaciers in High Mountain Asia are an important freshwater resource for large populations living downstream who rely on runoff for hydropower, irrigation, and municipal use. Projections of glacier mass change and runoff therefore have important socio-economic impacts. In this study, we use a new dataset of geodetic mass balance observations of almost all glaciers in the region to calibrate the Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM) using Bayesian inference. The new dataset enables the model to capture spatial variations in mass balance and the Bayesian inference enables the uncertainty associated with the model parameters to be quantified. Validation with historical mass balance observations shows the model performs well and the uncertainty is well captured. Projections of glacier mass change for 22 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) estimate that by the end of the century glaciers in High Mountain Asia will lose between 29 ± 12{\%} (RCP 2.6) and 67 ± 10{\%} (RCP 8.5) of their total mass relative to 2015. Considerable spatial and temporal variability exists between regions due to the climate forcing and glacier characteristics (hypsometry, ice thickness, elevation range). Projections of annual glacier runoff reveal most monsoon-fed river basins (Ganges, Brahmaputra) will hit a maximum (peak water) prior to 2050, while the Indus and other westerlies-fed river basins will likely hit peak water after 2050 due to significant contributions from excess glacier meltwater. Monsoon-fed watersheds are projected to experience large reductions in end-of-summer glacier runoff. Uncertainties in projections at regional scales are dominated by the uncertainty associated with the climate forcing, while at the individual glacier level, uncertainties associated with model parameters can be significant.},
author = {Rounce, David R and Hock, Regine and Shean, David E},
doi = {10.3389/feart.2019.00331},
issn = {2296-6463},
journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},
month = {jan},
pages = {331},
title = {{Glacier Mass Change in High Mountain Asia Through 2100 Using the Open-Source Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM)}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2019.00331 https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2019.00331/full},
volume = {7},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Roxy2015,
abstract = {here are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian summer monsoon, with several studies debating whether the monsoon is weakening or strengthening in a changing climate. Our analysis using multiple observed datasets demonstrates a significant weakening trend in summer rainfall during 1901–2012 over the central-east and northern regions of India, along the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins and the Himalayan foothills, where agriculture is still largely rain-fed. Earlier studies have suggested an increase in moisture availability and land-sea thermal gradient in the tropics due to anthropogenic warming, favouring an increase in tropical rainfall. Here we show that the land-sea thermal gradient over South Asia has been decreasing, due to rapid warming in the Indian Ocean and a relatively subdued warming over the subcontinent. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we provide compelling evidence that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land-sea thermal contrast, dampens the summer monsoon Hadley circulation, and thereby reduces the rainfall over parts of South Asia.},
author = {Roxy, Mathew Koll and Ritika, Kapoor and Terray, Pascal and Murtugudde, Raghu and Ashok, Karumuri and Goswami, B. N.},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms8423},
isbn = {2041-1723 (Electronic) 2041-1723 (Linking)},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {7423},
pmid = {26077934},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Rozance2020,
abstract = {A major barrier to achieving wide-spread progress on planning for impacts from climate change is the lack of trained scientists skilled at conducting societally-relevant research. Overcoming this barrier requires us to transform the way we train scientists so they are equipped to work with a range of different societal partners and institutions to produce the science needed to address climate change and society's other pressing environmental challenges. As researchers at climate research organizations that work directly with decision-makers and stakeholders to produce decision-relevant science, we are entrenched in advancing actionable climate science. Based on our experience preparing scientists for similar careers, we offer a perspective on a path for the academy to better develop, train and support scientists to conduct societally relevant research. We emphasize the need for science training that builds collaborative science skills at different career stages to develop a strong community of practice around actionable climate science. We offer insights from our training and capacity-building programs to demonstrate this transformation, and point to strategies that can be adopted at other universities to grow the capacity of scientists to support society in achieving rapid progress on climate action.},
author = {Rozance, Mary Ann and Krosby, Meade and Meadow, Alison M and Snover, Amy and Ferguson, Daniel B and Owen, Gigi},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abc27a},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {12},
pages = {125008},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Building capacity for societally engaged climate science by transforming science training}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc27a},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ruane2016,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Ruane, Alex C. and Teichmann, Claas and Arnell, Nigel W. and Carter, Timothy R. and Ebi, Kristie L. and Frieler, Katja and Goodess, Clare M. and Hewitson, Bruce and Horton, Radley and Kovats, R. Sari and Lotze, Heike K. and Mearns, Linda O. and Navarra, Antonio and Ojima, Dennis S. and Riahi, Keywan and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Themessl, Matthias and Vincent, Katharine},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016},
issn = {1991-9603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3493--3515},
title = {{The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6}},
url = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/3493/2016/},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ruane2021a,
author = {Ruane, Alex C. and Phillips, Meridel and M{\"{u}}ller, Christoph and Elliott, Joshua and J{\"{a}}germeyr, Jonas and Arneth, Almut and Balkovic, Juraj and Deryng, Delphine and Folberth, Christian and Iizumi, Toshichika and Izaurralde, Roberto C. and Khabarov, Nikolay and Lawrence, Peter and Liu, Wenfeng and Olin, Stefan and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Sakurai, Gen and Schmid, Erwin and Sultan, Benjamin and Wang, Xuhui and de Wit, Allard and Yang, Hong},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108313},
issn = {01681923},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
month = {apr},
pages = {108313},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Strong regional influence of climatic forcing datasets on global crop model ensembles}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168192320304159},
volume = {300},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Ruane2013a,
abstract = {Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.},
author = {Ruane, Alex C. and Major, David C. and Yu, Winston H. and Alam, Mozaharul and Hussain, Sk. Ghulam and Khan, Abu Saleh and Hassan, Ahmadul and Hossain, Bhuiya Md. Tamim Al and Goldberg, Richard and Horton, Radley M. and Rosenzweig, Cynthia},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.09.001},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {338--350},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001112?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378012001112},
volume = {23},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Ruffault2020,
abstract = {Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate change on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote wildfire activity remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfires, we show that future climate scenarios point to an increase in the frequency of two heat-induced fire-weather types that have been related to the largest wildfires in recent years. Heat-induced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry and warm conditions occurring during summer heatwaves, either under moderate (heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather is projected to increase by 14{\%} by the end of the century (2071–2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30{\%} under the RCP8.5, suggesting that the frequency and extent of large wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin.},
author = {Ruffault, Julien and Curt, Thomas and Moron, Vincent and Trigo, Ricardo M and Mouillot, Florent and Koutsias, Nikos and Pimont, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Martin-StPaul, Nicolas and Barbero, Renaud and Dupuy, Jean-Luc and Russo, Ana and Belhadj-Khedher, Chiraz},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-70069-z},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = {1},
pages = {13790},
title = {{Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70069-z},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Ruosteenoja2016,
abstract = {ABSTRACT Global warming leads to a prolongation and intensification of the thermal growing season. In this study, we present projections for the growing season length and growing degree day sum (GDD) in Europe by the end of the 21st century using two threshold temperatures, 5 and 10?°C. The analysis was based on simulations performed with 22?23 CMIP5 global models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Systematic errors in the temporal mean and variability of modelled temperatures were eliminated, and the data were downscaled spatially by employing a bias-correction method. To determine the onset, termination and GDD of the growing season, two methods have been used. The previously developed Fourier method is suited for exploring long-term means, while the novel temperature deviation integral method is applicable to inter-annual variations. According to the multi-model mean of the RCP8.5 simulations in the late 21st century, for the majority of Europe the growing season is prolonged by 1.5?2 months, the GDD above 5?°C increasing by 60?100{\%}. Responses to RCP4.5 are qualitatively similar but smaller. A decomposition of the uncertainty variance reveals that in the near-term future the contribution of internal variability is pronounced, but by the end of the century inter-model differences dominate. In studying growing-season conditions on an annual basis, we found that in coming decades years with a GDD below the recent past (1971?2000) mean become very uncommon. In the majority of years, GDD will exceed the 10-year or even the 20- or 50-year return level derived from recent past data.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/joc.4535},
author = {Ruosteenoja, Kimmo and R{\"{a}}is{\"{a}}nen, Jouni and Ven{\"{a}}l{\"{a}}inen, Ari and K{\"{a}}m{\"{a}}r{\"{a}}inen, Matti},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4535},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Fourier method,bias correction,climate change,effective temperature sum,growing degree days,representative concentration pathways,temperature accumulation,temperature deviation integral method},
month = {jun},
number = {8},
pages = {3039--3055},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Projections for the duration and degree days of the thermal growing season in Europe derived from CMIP5 model output}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4535},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ruosteenoja2019,
abstract = {To support the planning of future solar energy production in India, forthcoming changes in incoming surface solar radiation and the main physical factors contributing to the change were inferred from simulations performed with 27 global CMIP5 climate models. According to the multimodel-mean response, radiation diminishes by 0.5{\%}-4{\%} by the period 2030-59 (relative to 1971-2000), in tandem with strengthening aerosol and water vapor dimming. The largest reduction is anticipated for northern India. The evolution of incident radiation in the mid- and late twenty-first century depends substantially on the emission scenario. According to the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, solar radiation would gradually recover close to the level that prevailed in the late twentieth century. This results from the peaking of aerosol loading before midcentury while the water vapor content continuously increases somewhat. Conversely, under RCP8.5, incident radiation would still decline, although more slowly than during the early century. This coincides with a substantial increase in atmospheric water vapor content and a modest decrease in aerosol forcing. In cloud forcing, multimodel-mean changes are minor, but divergence among the model simulations is substantial. Moreover, cloud forcing proved to be the factor that correlates most strongly with intermodel differences in the solar radiation response. Multimodel-mean changes in solar radiation are small and would not crucially affect the conditions of solar energy production. Nevertheless, some individual models simulate far more substantial reductions of up to 10{\%}.},
author = {Ruosteenoja, Kimmo and R{\"{a}}is{\"{a}}nen, Petri and Devraj, Sarvesh and Garud, Shirish S. and Lindfors, Anders V.},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0013.1},
issn = {15588432},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
number = {1},
pages = {19--35},
title = {{Future changes in incident surface solar radiation and contributing factors in India in CMIP5 climate model simulations}},
volume = {58},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ruosteenoja2019a,
abstract = {Future changes in geostrophic winds over Europe and the North Atlantic region were studied utilizing output data from 21 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). Changes in temporal means, extremes, and the joint distribution of speed and direction were considered. In concordance with previous research, the time mean and extreme scalar wind speeds do not change pronouncedly in response to the projected climate change; some degree of weakening occurs in the majority of the domain. Nevertheless, substantial changes in high wind speeds are identified when studying the geostrophic winds from different directions separately. In particular, in northern Europe in autumn and in parts of northwestern Europe in winter, the frequency of strong westerly winds is projected to increase by up to 50{\%}. Concurrently, easterly winds become less common. In addition, we evaluated the potential of the GCMs to simulate changes in the near-surface true wind speeds. In ocean areas, changes in the true and geostrophic winds are mainly consistent and the emerging differences can be explained (e.g., by the retreat of Arctic sea ice). Conversely, in several GCMs the continental wind speed response proved to be predominantly determined by fairly arbitrary changes in the surface properties rather than by changes in the atmospheric circulation. Accordingly, true wind projections derived directly from the model output should be treated with caution since they do not necessarily reflect the actual atmospheric response to global warming.},
author = {Ruosteenoja, Kimmo and Vihma, Timo and Ven{\"{a}}l{\"{a}}inen, Ari},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0023.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {6467--6490},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Projected Changes in European and North Atlantic Seasonal Wind Climate Derived from CMIP5 Simulations}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0023.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ruosteenoja2018,
author = {Ruosteenoja, Kimmo and Markkanen, Tiina and Ven{\"{a}}l{\"{a}}inen, Ari and R{\"{a}}is{\"{a}}nen, Petri and Peltola, Heli},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3671-4},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1177--1192},
title = {{Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3671-4},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Russo2019,
abstract = {While every society can be exposed to heatwaves, some people suffer far less harm and recover more quickly than others from their occurrence. Here we project indicators of global heatwave risk associated with global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C, specified by the Paris agreement, for two future pathways of societal development representing low and high vulnerability conditions. Results suggest that at the 1.5 °C warming level, heatwave exposure in 2075 estimated for the population living in low development countries is expected to be greater than exposure at the warming level of 2 °C for the population living in very high development countries. A similar result holds for an illustrative heatwave risk index. However, the projected difference in heatwave exposure and the illustrative risk index for the low and very high development countries will be significantly reduced if global warming is stabilized below 1.5 °C, and in the presence of rapid social development.},
author = {Russo, Simone and Sillmann, Jana and Sippel, Sebastian and Barcikowska, Monika J. and Ghisetti, Claudia and Smid, Marek and O'Neill, Brian},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-08070-4},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Climate sciences,Environmental social sciences,Natural hazards},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {136},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-08070-4},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Russo2015,
abstract = {The Russian heatwave in 2010 killed tens of thousands of people, and was by far the worst event in Europe since at least 1950, according to recent studies and a novel universal heatwave index capturing both the duration and magnitude of heatwaves. Here, by taking an improved version of this index, namely the heat wave magnitude index daily, we rank the top ten European heatwaves that occurred in the period 1950–2014, and show the spatial distribution of the magnitude of the most recent heatwave in summer 2015. We demonstrate that all these events had a strong impact reported in historical newspapers. We further reveal that the 1972 heatwave in Finland had a comparable spatial extent and magnitude as the European heatwave of 2003, considered the second strongest heatwave of the observational era. In the next two decades (2021–2040), regional climate projections suggest that Europe experiences an enhanced probability for heatwaves comparable to or greater than the magnitude, extent and duration of the Russian heatwave in 2010. We demonstrate that the probability of experiencing a major European heatwave in the coming decades is higher in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 even though global mean temperature projections do not differ substantially. This calls for a proactive vulnerability assessment in Europe in support of formulating heatwave adaptation strategies to reduce the adverse impacts of heatwaves.},
author = {Russo, Simone and Sillmann, Jana and Fischer, Erich M},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124003},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {124003},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=12/a=124003?key=crossref.76ab5a6b677ee9cddd756c9eee6b118a},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Russo2014,
abstract = {An extreme heat wave occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010. It had serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, it was the strongest recorded globally in recent decades and exceeded in amplitude and spatial extent the previous hottest European summer in 2003. Earlier studies have not succeeded in comparing the magnitude of heat waves across continents and in time. This study introduces a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index that can be compared over space and time. The index is based on the analysis of daily maximum temperature in order to classify the strongest heat waves that occurred worldwide during the three study periods 1980–1990, 1991–2001, and 2002–2012. In addition, multimodel ensemble outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are used to project future occurrence and severity of heat waves, under different Representative Concentration Pathways, adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Results show that the percentage of global area affected by heat waves has increased in recent decades. Moreover, model predictions reveal an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme and very extreme heat waves in the coming years, in particular, by the end of this century, under the most severe IPCC AR5 scenario, events of the same severity as that in Russia in the summer of 2010 will become the norm and are projected to occur as often as every 2 years for regions such as southern Europe, North America, South America, Africa, and Indonesia.},
author = {Russo, Simone and Dosio, Alessandro and Graversen, Rune G. and Sillmann, Jana and Carrao, Hugo and Dunbar, Martha B. and Singleton, Andrew and Montagna, Paolo and Barbola, Paulo and Vogt, J{\"{u}}rgen V.},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD022098},
isbn = {2169897X},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {climate extremes,climate indices,global models,heat waves},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {12500--12512},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD022098},
volume = {119},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Russo2016,
abstract = {Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change. In the upcoming decades the occurrence of longer, hotter and more frequent heat waves could have a strong impact on human mortality and crop production. Here, by applying the heat wave magnitude index daily to temperature reanalysis data, we quantify the magnitude and the spatial extent of the most extreme heat waves experienced in Africa between 1979 and October 2015 across different seasons. Results show that in the recent years Africa experienced hotter, longer and more extent heat waves than in the last two decades of the 20th century. In the future, 50{\%} of regional climateprojections suggest that heat waves that are unusual under present climate conditions will occur on a regular basis by 2040 under the most severe IPCC AR5 scenario (i.e. RCP8.5).},
author = {Russo, Simone and Marchese, Andrea F. and Sillmann, J. and Imm{\'{e}}, Giuseppina},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054016},
isbn = {1748-9326},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate indices,cordex Africa,heat wave,regional climate models,temperature extremes},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {054016},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa?}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=5/a=054016?key=crossref.b78d794bda3061cd64c0e57be8530d6f},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ruti2016,
abstract = { AbstractThe Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide. },
author = {Ruti, P M and Somot, S and Giorgi, F and Dubois, C and Flaounas, E and Obermann, A and Dell'Aquila, A and Pisacane, G and Harzallah, A and Lombardi, E and Ahrens, B and Akhtar, N and Alias, A and Arsouze, T and Aznar, R and Bastin, S and Bartholy, J and B{\'{e}}ranger, K and Beuvier, J and Bouffies-Cloch{\'{e}}, S and Brauch, J and Cabos, W and Calmanti, S and Calvet, J.-C. and Carillo, A and Conte, D and Coppola, E and Djurdjevic, V and Drobinski, P and Elizalde-Arellano, A and Gaertner, M and Gal{\`{a}}n, P and Gallardo, C and Gualdi, S and Goncalves, M and Jorba, O and Jord{\`{a}}, G and L'Heveder, B and Lebeaupin-Brossier, C and Li, L and Liguori, G and Lionello, P and Maci{\`{a}}s, D and Nabat, P and {\"{O}}nol, B and Raikovic, B and Ramage, K and Sevault, F and Sannino, G and Struglia, M V and Sanna, A and Torma, C and Vervatis, V},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00176.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {7},
pages = {1187--1208},
title = {{Med-CORDEX Initiative for Mediterranean Climate Studies}},
volume = {97},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Rutty2017,
abstract = {To accurately characterize the ski industry's risk to future climate change and varied quality of snow conditions, it is important to assess how the industry has managed and adapted to contemporary anomalously warm ski seasons. This is the first temporal climate change analogue study to use higher resolution daily performance data at the individual ski area scale, including reported snow quality, ski lift operations, slope openings, and water usage for snowmaking. The record warm winter of 2011–2012 in the Ontario ski tourism market (Eastern Canada) is representative of projected future average winter conditions under a mid-century, high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), which was compared to the 2010–2011 season which was climatically normal (for the 1981–2010 period). Supply-side impacts across the 17 ski areas during the analogue winter included a total average decrease in the ski season length (−17{\%} days), operating ski lifts (−3{\%}), skiable terrain (−9{\%}), reduced snow quality (e.g., -46{\%} days with packed powder), snowmaking days (−18{\%}), and an increase in water usage for snowmaking (e.g., +300{\%} in December). Demand-side impacts include a 10{\%} decrease in overall skier visits, with a resort size-correlation (small −20{\%}, intermediate −14{\%}, large −8{\%}). With reduced operational ski terrain and more frequent marginal snow conditions, visitor experience is adversely affected more frequently. Collectively, these findings identify differential impacts in the ski tourism market and can assist ski area managers, communities, investors and governments with developing climate change adaptation plans.},
author = {Rutty, Michelle and Scott, Daniel and Johnson, Peter and Pons, Marc and Steiger, Robert and Vilella, Marc},
doi = {10.1016/j.tourman.2016.10.020},
issn = {02615177},
journal = {Tourism Management},
keywords = {Adaptation,Analogue,Canada,Climate change,Ski tourism,Vulnerability},
month = {feb},
pages = {196--204},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Using ski industry response to climatic variability to assess climate change risk: An analogue study in Eastern Canada}},
volume = {58},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Ryu2018,
abstract = {Incident shortwave radiation (SW), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and diffuse PAR (PARdif) at the land surface drive a multitude of processes related to biosphere-atmosphere interactions and play a critical role in the Earth climate system. Previous global solar radiation products were spatially coarse ({\textgreater} 50-km resolution) or temporally short (a few years), which hindered scaling-up ground based observations of the land surface processes into regional, continental, and global scales across multiple time scales. Here, we report Breathing Earth System Simulator (BESS) SW, PAR, and PARdif products over the global land surface at a 5 km resolution with 4 day intervals between 2000 and 2016. We combined an atmospheric radiative transfer model with an artificial neural network (ANN) to compute SW, PAR, and PARdif. A series of MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmosphere and land products were used as inputs to run the ANN. We test the performance of the products using data from 158 (SW), 77 (PAR), and 22 (PARdif) stations collected in the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and flux tower networks, which covered a range of climatic zones from polar to tropical zones. BESS had strong linear relationships with in-situ SW data (R2 = 0.95, relative bias = − 2.3{\%}), PAR (R2 = 0.94, relative bias = 1.7{\%}), and PARdif (R2 = 0.84, relative bias = 0.2{\%}). BESS captured the interannual variability of SW at both the site (a majority of long-term BSRN sites) and continental levels. Over the study period, global annual SW, PAR, and PARdif values did not show any dimming or brightening trends, although these trends appeared at regional levels, e.g. dimming in India. Mean annual SW over the global land surface was 184.8 W m− 2 (875 ZJ yr− 1, zetta = 1021); 46{\%} of SW was partitioned to PAR, which was further split into direct (59{\%}) and diffuse (41{\%}) components. The developed products will be useful in solar energy harvesting research and will improve water, carbon, and energy flux estimates of terrestrial ecosystems from local to the global scales.},
author = {Ryu, Youngryel and Jiang, Chongya and Kobayashi, Hideki and Detto, Matteo},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2017.09.021},
issn = {00344257},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
keywords = {BESS,BSRN,Diffuse PAR,FLUXNET,MODIS,PAR,Solar radiation},
month = {jan},
pages = {812--825},
publisher = {Elsevier Inc.},
title = {{MODIS-derived global land products of shortwave radiation and diffuse and total photosynthetically active radiation at 5 km resolution from 2000}},
volume = {204},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sanchez2015c,
abstract = {The results of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations over South America are presented. This is the first coordinated exercise of regional climate modelling studies over the continent, as part of the CLARIS-LPB EU FP7 project. The results of different future periods, with the main focus on (2071–2100) is shown, when forced by several global climate models, all using the A1B greenhouse gases emissions scenario. The analysis is focused on the mean climate conditions for both temperature and precipitation. The common climate change signals show an overall increase of temperature for all the seasons and regions, generally larger for the austral winter season. Future climate shows a precipitation decrease over the tropical region, and an increase over the subtropical areas. These climate change signals arise independently of the driving global model and the RCM. The internal variability of the driving global models introduces a very small level of uncertainty, compared with that due to the choice of the driving model and the RCM. Moreover, the level of uncertainty is larger for longer horizon projections for both temperature and precipitation. The uncertainty in the temperature changes is larger for the subtropical than for the tropical ones. The current analysis allows identification of the common climate change signals and their associated uncertainties for several subregions within the South American continent.},
author = {S{\'{a}}nchez, E. and Solman, S. and Remedio, A. R. C. and Berbery, H. and Samuelsson, P. and {Da Rocha}, R. P. and Mour{\~{a}}o, C. and Li, L. and Marengo, J. and de Castro, M. and Jacob, D.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2466-0},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Climate change,Regional climate modelling,South America},
month = {oct},
number = {7-8},
pages = {2193--2212},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{Regional climate modelling in CLARIS-LPB: a concerted approach towards twentyfirst century projections of regional temperature and precipitation over South America}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2466-0},
volume = {45},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Saeed2017,
author = {Saeed, Fahad and Almazroui, Mansour and Islam, Nazrul and Khan, Mariam Saleh},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-017-2837-z},
issn = {0921-030X},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {1635--1647},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan: a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-017-2837-z},
volume = {87},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Saeed2018,
abstract = {Changes in the hydrological cycle are among the aspects of climate change most relevant for human systems and ecosystems. Besides trends in overall wetting or drying, changes in temporal characteristics of wetting and drying are of crucial importance in determining the climate hazard posed by such changes. This is particularly the case for tropical regions, where most precipitation occurs during the rainy season and changes in rainy season onset and length have substantial consequences. Here we present projections for changes in tropical rainy season lengths for mean temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Based on multi-ensemble quasi-stationary simulations at these warming levels, our analysis indicates robust changes in rainy season characteristics in large parts of the tropics despite substantial natural variability. Specifically, we report a robust shortening of the rainy season for all of tropical Africa as well as north-east Brazil. About 27{\%} of West Africa is projected to experience robust changes in the rainy season length with a mean shortening of about 7 days under 1.5 °C. We find that changes in the temporal characteristics are largely unrelated to changes in overall precipitation, highlighting the importance of investigating both separately.},
author = {Saeed, Fahad and Bethke, Ingo and Fischer, Erich and Legutke, Stephanie and Shiogama, Hideo and Stone, D{\'{a}}ith{\'{i}} A and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab797},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {6},
pages = {64024},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5°C and 2°C}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab797},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Saintilan2014,
abstract = {Mangroves are species of halophytic intertidal trees and shrubs derived from tropical genera and are likely delimited in latitudinal range by varying sensitivity to cold. There is now sufficient evidence that mangrove species have proliferated at or near their poleward limits on at least five continents over the past half century, at the expense of salt marsh. Avicennia is the most cold-tolerant genus worldwide, and is the subject of most of the observed changes. Avicennia germinans has extended in range along the USA Atlantic coast and expanded into salt marsh as a consequence of lower frost frequency and intensity in the southern USA. The genus has also expanded into salt marsh at its southern limit in Peru, and on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Mangroves of several species have expanded in extent and replaced salt marsh where protected within mangrove reserves in Guangdong Province, China. In south-eastern Australia, the expansion of Avicennia marina into salt marshes is now well documented, and Rhizophora stylosa has extended its range southward, while showing strong population growth within estuaries along its southern limits in northern New South Wales. Avicennia marina has extended its range southwards in South Africa. The changes are consistent with the poleward extension of temperature thresholds coincident with sea-level rise, although the specific mechanism of range extension might be complicated by limitations on dispersal or other factors. The shift from salt marsh to mangrove dominance on subtropical and temperate shorelines has important implications for ecological structure, function, and global change adaptation.},
author = {Saintilan, Neil and Wilson, Nicholas C. and Rogers, Kerrylee and Rajkaran, Anusha and Krauss, Ken W.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.12341},
isbn = {1354-1013},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {Australia,Climate change,Mangrove,Range expansion,Salt marsh,South Africa,South America,Temperature,USA},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {147--157},
pmid = {23907934},
title = {{Mangrove expansion and salt marsh decline at mangrove poleward limits}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.12341},
volume = {20},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Salinger2019,
abstract = {New Zealand has a long, continuous record of annual measurements of the altitude of end-of-summer-snowline for a set of 50 Southern Alps ?index glaciers.? The record begins for the 1976?1977 glacier year and continues to the present. These are equivalent to equilibrium line altitude (ELA) data. An earlier paper used these to estimate annual mass balance and ice volume for all glaciers up to 2008 and showed a steady decline in ice volume, but with considerable inter-annual fluctuations. These results are updated to 2018 for the more than 3,000 small and medium-size glaciers of the Southern Alps. The inclusion of the latter year enabled assessment of the impacts on ice volume of these glaciers from an unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere heatwave in the New Zealand region during the austral summer (DJF) 2017/18. The main purpose of this paper is to examine how these changes in ice volume relate to variability and trends in atmospheric circulation and weather types over four decades. Years with ice volume gains are characterized by below average temperature anomalies, enhanced southwest flow and a tendency for trough weather types over New Zealand. Years with ice volume losses have above average temperature, reduced southwest flow, and increased blocking weather types, with more anticyclones east of New Zealand. Largest annual ice volume loss of 3.6 ± 0.6 km3 (?13.5{\%}) occurred during the 2017/18 summer heatwave for which the main atmospheric anomalies are discussed. Total ice volume of the Southern Alps for the small and medium glaciers has decreased from 26.6 km3 in 1977 to 17.9 km3 in 2018 (a loss of 8.6 km3 or 33{\%}) at a rate of 0.21 km3 a?1. From 1977 to 1997 there was an annual ice gain of +0.30 km3 a?1 but was followed by an accelerating ice loss of ?0.67 km3 a?1 for the period 1998?2018. There are significant correlations between ice volume changes and the Trenberth regional circulation indices Z1, Z3 and MZ3. Strongest relationships are with the Southern Annular Mode: a trend towards more positive values coincides with a general loss of ice volume. The Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and El Ni{\~{n}}o/Southern Oscillation relate to ice volume changes on decadal to inter-annual time scales. Positive phases of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and El Ni{\~{n}}o years favour ice volume growth as they are cooler, with more precipitation, troughs and southwest flow over New Zealand. Negative phases of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and La Ni{\~{n}}a years favour ice volume loss as they are warmer with less precipitation, more anticyclones and east or northeast flow. The dominant driver for 2017/18 was the positive Southern Annular Mode, and a smaller contribution from La Ni{\~{n}}a on a background of regional warming. Climate scenarios suggest that such conditions will be rather frequent by the 2,080?2,100 decades, with consequent large reductions in ice volume.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/joc.6072},
author = {Salinger, Michael J and Fitzharris, Blair B and Chinn, Trevor},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6072},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Southern Alps,Southern Annular Mode,Southern Oscillation,atmospheric circulation,glacier snowlines,ice volume,mass balance,weather types},
month = {sep},
number = {11},
pages = {4274--4287},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Atmospheric circulation and ice volume changes for the small and medium glaciers of New Zealand's Southern Alps mountain range 1977–2018}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6072},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Salvati2017,
abstract = {The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is particularly concerning in Mediterranean zone, as climate change and UHI scenarios foresee a fast growth of energy consumption for next years, due to the widespread of air conditioning systems and the increase of cooling demand. The UHI intensity is thus a key variable for the prediction of energy needs in urban areas. This study investigates the intensity of UHI in Barcelona (Spain), the densest Mediterranean coastal city, and its impact on cooling demand of residential buildings. The experimental analysis is based on temperature data from rural and urban Weather Stations and field measurements at street level. The maximum average UHI intensity is found to be 2.8°C in winter and 1.7°C in summer, reaching 4.3°C at street level. Simulations performed with EnergyPlus indicate that the UHI intensity increases the sensible cooling load of residential buildings by around 18{\%}–28{\%}, depending on UHI intensity, amount of solar gains and cooling set point. In the light of the results, the UHI intensity in Mediterranean context should be properly considered in performing energy evaluations for urban contexts, since standard meteorological data from airport weather stations are not found to be accurate enough.},
author = {Salvati, Agnese and {Coch Roura}, Helena and Cecere, Carlo},
doi = {10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.04.025},
issn = {0378-7788},
journal = {Energy and Buildings},
keywords = {Climate data,Cooling demand,Energy consumption,Energy modelling,EnergyPlus,Mediterranean climate,Urban climate,Urban heat island,Weather file},
pages = {38--54},
title = {{Assessing the urban heat island and its energy impact on residential buildings in Mediterranean climate: Barcelona case study}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778817312914},
volume = {146},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sanchez2017,
author = {Sanchez, J.L. and Merino, A and Melc{\'{o}}n, P and Garc{\'{i}}a-Ortega, E and Fern{\'{a}}ndez-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, S and Berthet, C and Dessens, J},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.08.003},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
keywords = {Hailfalls,Southern Europe,Synoptic environments,Trends},
month = {dec},
pages = {1--10},
title = {{Are meteorological conditions favoring hail precipitation change in Southern Europe? Analysis of the period 1948–2015}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809517307147 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809517307147},
volume = {198},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sanderson2017a,
abstract = {Background and objectives Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.},
author = {Sanderson, Michael and Arbuthnott, Katherine and Kovats, Sari and Hajat, Shakoor and Falloon, Pete},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0180369},
editor = {A{\~{n}}el, Juan A.},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {e0180369},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
title = {{The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review}},
url = {http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180369},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Santamouris2017,
author = {Santamouris, Mat and Haddad, Shamila and Fiorito, Francesco and Osmond, Paul and Ding, Lan and Prasad, Deo and Zhai, Xiaoqiang and Wang, Ruzhu},
doi = {10.3390/su9050712},
journal = {Sustainability},
number = {5},
pages = {712},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Urban heat island and overheating characteristics in Sydney, Australia. An analysis of multiyear measurements}},
volume = {9},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sapkota2019,
abstract = {Plant phenology (e.g. timing of spring green-up, flowering) is among the most sensitive indicator of ecological response to ongoing climate variability and change. While previous studies have documented changes in the timing of spring green-up and flowering across different parts of the world, empirical evidence regarding how such ongoing ecological changes impact allergic disease burden at population level is lacking. Because earlier spring green-up may increase season length for tree pollen, we hypothesized that early onset of spring (negative anomaly in start of season (SOS)) will be associated with increased hay fever burden. To test this, we first calculated a median cardinal date for SOS for each county within the contiguous US for the years 2001–2013 using phenology data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We categorized yearly deviations in SOS for each county from their respective long-term averages as: very early ({\textgreater}3 wks early), early (1–3 wks early), average (within 1 wk), late (1–3 wks late) and very late ({\textgreater} 3 wks late). We linked these data to 2002–2013 National Health Interview Survey data, and investigated the association between changes in SOS and hay fever prevalence using logistic regression. We observed that adults living in counties with a very early onset of SOS had a 14{\%} higher odds of hay fever compared to the reference group, i.e. those living in counties where onset of spring was within the normal range (Odds Ratios (OR): 1.14. 95{\%} Confidence Interval (CI): 1.03–1.27). Likewise, adults living in counties with very late onset of SOS had a 18{\%} higher odds hay fever compared to the reference group (OR: 1.18, CI: 1.05–1.32). Our data provides the first-ever national scale assessment of the impact of changing plant phenology–linked to ongoing climate variability and change–on hay fever prevalence. Our findings are likely tied to changes in pollen dynamics, i.e early onset of spring increases the duration of exposure to tree pollen, while very late onset of spring increases the propensity of exposure because of simultaneous blooming.},
author = {Sapkota, Amir and Murtugudde, Raghu and Curriero, Frank C. and Upperman, Crystal R. and Ziska, Lewis and Jiang, Chengsheng},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0212010},
editor = {Milanese, Manlio},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {e0212010},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
title = {{Associations between alteration in plant phenology and hay fever prevalence among US adults: Implication for changing climate}},
url = {http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212010},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sathaye2013,
abstract = {Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38{\%} of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31{\%} additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R{\&}D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.},
author = {Sathaye, Jayant A. and Dale, Larry L. and Larsen, Peter H. and Fitts, Gary A. and Koy, Kevin and Lewis, Sarah M. and de Lucena, Andr{\'{e}} Frossard Pereira},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.005},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {499--511},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001458 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378012001458},
volume = {23},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Sawadogo2019,
abstract = {Many West African countries are plagued with poor electricity. The abundance of solar irradiance over the region makes solar energy an attractive solution to the problem, but there is a dearth of information on how the ongoing solar dimming and global warming may alter the solar energy over the region in the future at various global warming levels. This study investigates the impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation potential (PVP) over West Africa under four global warming levels (1.5 °C; 2.0 °C; 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C) and under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario. Fourteen regional climate model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were analysed for the study. The capability of the simulations to reproduce the PVP and climate variables over West Africa is quantified. The results show that the CORDEX simulation ensemble captures the spatial distribution and the annual cycle of climate variables and PVP over West Africa, though with few biases. The simulation and observation indicate that PVP over West Africa ranges from 8{\%} to 25{\%} and the annual cycle is influenced by the seasonal variation of the monsoon system. The simulation ensemble projects a decrease of PVP over West Africa in the future and indicates that the magnitude of the decrease grows with warming levels. The maximum decrease in PVP projected over any country or zone in the region is less than 3.8{\%} even for a warming level of 3.0 °C. Hence, the study suggests that ongoing global warming may have an influence on PVP over West Africa.},
author = {Sawadogo, Windmanagda and Abiodun, Babatunde J and Okogbue, Emmanuel C},
doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2019.11.032},
issn = {09601481},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
keywords = {Global dimming,Global warming,Paris agreement,Solar energy,West Africa},
month = {may},
pages = {263--277},
title = {{Impacts of global warming on photovoltaic power generation over West Africa}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148119317136 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960148119317136},
volume = {151},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sawadogo2020,
abstract = {Renewable energy is key for the development of African countries, and knowing the best location for the implementation of solar and wind energy projects is important within this context. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on solar and wind energy potential over Africa under low end (RCP2.6) and high end (RCP8.5) emission scenarios using a set of new high resolution (25 km) simulations with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) produced as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative. The projections focus on two periods: (i) the near future (2021–2040) and ii) the mid-century future (2041–2060). The performance of the RegCM4 ensemble mean (Rmean) in simulating relevant present climate variables (1995–2014) is first evaluated with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite-based data. The Rmean reproduces reasonably well the observed spatial patterns of solar irradiance, air temperature, total cloud cover, wind speed at 100 m above the ground level, photovoltaic power potential (PVP), concentrated solar power output (CSPOUT) and wind power density (WPD) over Africa, though some biases are still evident, especially for cloud-related variables. For the future climate, the sign of the changes is consistent in both scenarios but with more intense magnitude in the middle of the century RCP8.5 scenario. Considering the energy variables, the Rmean projects a general decrease in PVP, which is more pronounced in the mid-century future and under RCP8.5 (up to 2{\%}). Similarly, a general increase in CSPOUT (up to 2{\%}) is projected over the continent under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The projection in WPD shows a similar change (predominant increase) in the near and mid-century future slices under both RCPs with a maximum increase of 20{\%}. The present study suggests that the RCP2.6 emission scenario, in general, favours the implementation of renewable energy in Africa compared to the RCP8.5.},
author = {Sawadogo, Windmanagda and Reboita, Michelle Sim{\~{o}}es and Faye, Aissatou and da Rocha, Rosmeri Porf{\'{i}}rio and Odoulami, Romaric C and Olusegun, Christiana F and Adeniyi, Mojisola Oluwayemisi and Abiodun, Babatunde J and Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Diallo, Ismaila and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05377-1},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1647--1672},
title = {{Current and future potential of solar and wind energy over Africa using the RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE ensemble}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05377-1 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05377-1 https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05377-1},
volume = {57},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Sawyer2016,
abstract = {Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) delivers water and dissolved chemicals from continents to oceans, and its spatial distribution affects coastal water quality. Unlike rivers, SGD is broadly distributed and relatively difficult to measure, especially at continental scales. We present spatially resolved estimates of fresh (land-derived) SGD for the contiguous United States based on historical climate records and high-resolution hydrographic data. Climate controls regional patterns in fresh SGD, while coastal drainage geometry imparts strong local variability. Because the recharge zones that contribute fresh SGD are densely populated, the quality and quantity of fresh SGD are both vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbance. Our analysis unveils hot spots for contaminant discharge to marine waters and saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers.},
author = {Sawyer, Audrey H and David, C{\'{e}}dric H and Famiglietti, James S},
doi = {10.1126/science.aag1058},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {aug},
number = {6300},
pages = {705--707},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Continental patterns of submarine groundwater discharge reveal coastal vulnerabilities}},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aag1058},
volume = {353},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Schaeffer2012,
author = {Schaeffer, Roberto and Szklo, Alexandre Salem and {Pereira de Lucena}, Andr{\'{e}} Frossard and {Moreira Cesar Borba}, Bruno Soares and {Pupo Nogueira}, Larissa Pinheiro and Fleming, Fernanda Pereira and Troccoli, Alberto and Harrison, Mike and Boulahya, Mohammed Sadeck},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2011.11.056},
issn = {03605442},
journal = {Energy},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {1--12},
title = {{Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544211007870 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544211007870},
volume = {38},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Schaefli2019,
author = {Schaefli, Bettina and Manso, Pedro and Fischer, Mauro and Huss, Matthias and Farinotti, Daniel},
doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2018.07.104},
issn = {09601481},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
month = {mar},
pages = {615--627},
title = {{The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960148118309017},
volume = {132},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Schauberger2017,
abstract = {Future agricultural productivity is threatened by high temperatures. Here, using 9 crop models, Schauberger et al. find that yield losses due to temperatures {\textgreater}30 °C are captured by current models where yield losses by mild heat stress occur mainly due to water stress and can be buffered by irrigation.},
author = {Schauberger, Bernhard and Archontoulis, Sotirios and Arneth, Almut and Balkovic, Juraj and Ciais, Philippe and Deryng, Delphine and Elliott, Joshua and Folberth, Christian and Khabarov, Nikolay and M{\"{u}}ller, Christoph and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Rolinski, Susanne and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Schmid, Erwin and Wang, Xuhui and Schlenker, Wolfram and Frieler, Katja},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms13931},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Agriculture,Agroecology,Climate,change impacts},
month = {jan},
pages = {13931},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ncomms13931},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Scheurer2009,
abstract = {BACKGROUND, AIM, AND SCOPE: Catch decline of freshwater fish has been recorded in several countries. Among the possible causes, habitat change is discussed. This article focuses on potentially increased levels of fine sediments going to rivers and their effects on gravel-spawning brown trout. Indications of increased erosion rates are evident from land-use change in agriculture, changes in forest management practices, and from climate change. The latter induces an increase in air and river water temperatures, reduction in permafrost, changes in snow dynamics and an increase in heavy rain events. As a result, an increase in river sediment is likely. Suspended sediment may affect fish health and behaviour directly. Furthermore, sediment loads may clog gravel beds impeding fish such as brown trout from spawning and reducing recruitment rates. To assess the potential impact on fine sediments, knowledge of brown trout reproductive needs and the effects of sediment on brown trout health were evaluated. APPROACH: We critically reviewed the literature and included results from ongoing studies to answer the following questions, focusing on recent decades and rivers in alpine countries. Have climate change and land-use change increased erosion and sediment loads in rivers? Do we have indications of an increase in riverbed clogging? Are there indications of direct or indirect effects on brown trout from increased suspended sediment concentrations in rivers or from an increase in riverbed clogging? RESULTS: Rising air temperatures have led to more intensive precipitation in winter months, earlier snow melt in spring, and rising snow lines and hence to increased erosion. Intensification of land use has supported erosion in lowland and pre-alpine areas in the second half of the twentieth century. In the Alps, however, reforestation of abandoned land at high altitudes might reduce the erosion risk while intensification on the lower, more easily accessible slopes increases erosion risk. Data from laboratory experiments show that suspended sediments affect the health and behaviour of fish when available in high amounts. Point measurements in large rivers indicate no common lethal threat and suspended sediment is rarely measured continuously in small rivers. However, effects on fish can be expected under environmentally relevant conditions. River bed clogging impairs the reproductive performance of gravel-spawning fish. DISCUSSION: Overall, higher erosion and increased levels of fine sediment going into rivers are expected in future. Additionally, sediment loads in rivers are suspected to have considerably impaired gravel bed structure and brown trout spawning is impeded. Timing of discharge is put forward and is now more likely to affect brown trout spawning than in previous decades. CONCLUSIONS: Reports on riverbed clogging from changes in erosion and fine sediment deposition patterns, caused by climate change and land-use change are rare. This review identifies both a risk of increases in climate erosive forces and fine sediment loads in rivers of alpine countries. Increased river discharge and sediment loads in winter and early spring could be especially harmful for brown trout reproduction and development of young life stages. Recently published studies indicate a decline in trout reproduction from riverbed clogging in many rivers in lowlands and alpine regions. However, the multitude of factors in natural complex ecosystems makes it difficult to address a single causative factor. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Further investigations into the consequences of climate change and land-use change on river systems are needed. Small rivers, of high importance for the recruitment of gravel-spawning fish, are often neglected. Studies on river bed clogging are rare and the few existing studies are not comparable. Thus, there is a strong need for the development of methods to assess sediment input and river bed clogging. As well, studies on the effects to fish from suspended sediments and consequences of gravel beds clogging under natural conditions are urgently needed.},
author = {Scheurer, Karin and Alewell, Christine and B{\"{a}}nninger, Dominik and Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia},
doi = {10.1007/s11356-008-0075-3},
isbn = {0944-1344},
issn = {09441344},
journal = {Environmental Science and Pollution Research},
keywords = {Agriculture,Alpine region,Brown trout,Climate change,Clogging erosion,Fish health,Global change,Gravel-spawning,Hydrology,Land-use change,Precipitation,Reproduction,Rivers,Salmo trutta,Salmonids,Suspended sediment},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {232--242},
pmid = {19048320},
publisher = {Springer-Verlag},
title = {{Climate and land-use changes affecting river sediment and brown trout in alpine countries – a review}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11356-008-0075-3},
volume = {16},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Schewe2014,
abstract = {Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15{\%} of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity ({\textless}500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40{\%} (according to some models, more than 100{\%}) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.},
author = {Schewe, Jacob and Heinke, Jens and Gerten, Dieter and Haddeland, Ingjerd and Arnell, Nigel W and Clark, Douglas B and Dankers, Rutger and Eisner, Stephanie and Fekete, Bal{\'{a}}zs M and Col{\'{o}}n-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Felipe J and Gosling, Simon N and Kim, Hyungjun and Liu, Xingcai and Masaki, Yoshimitsu and Portmann, Felix T and Satoh, Yusuke and Stacke, Tobias and Tang, Qiuhong and Wada, Yoshihide and Wisser, Dominik and Albrecht, Torsten and Frieler, Katja and Piontek, Franziska and Warszawski, Lila and Kabat, Pavel},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222460110},
file = {::},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {Climate impacts,Hydrological modeling,Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Projec,climate impacts,hydrological modeling},
month = {mar},
number = {9},
pages = {3245--3250},
pmid = {24344289},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change}},
url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3245},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Schipper2019,
author = {Schipper, Janus Willem and Hackenbruch, Julia and Lentink, Hilke Simone and Sedlmeier, Katrin},
doi = {10.1127/metz/2019/0878},
issn = {0941-2948},
journal = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
keywords = {climate adaptation,decision-making,observations,regional climate change,simulation ensemble,tailored climate parameters},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {41--57},
publisher = {Schweizerbart'sche Verlagsbuchhandlung},
title = {{Integrating Adaptation Expertise into Regional Climate Data Analyses through Tailored Climate Parameters}},
url = {http://www.schweizerbart.de/papers/metz/detail/28/90522/Integrating{\_}Adaptation{\_}Expertise{\_}into{\_}Regional{\_}Cli?af=crossref},
volume = {28},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Schlogl2018,
abstract = {Abstract. In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. In this study, a climate index estimating rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in central Europe is analysed until the end of this century and compared to present-day conditions. The analysis of the potential future development of landslide risk is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional-scale climate change projections across central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrence. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits an increase of about 1 more potentially landslide-inducing rainfall period per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to 14 additional periods. This general spatial distribution emerges in the near future (2021–2050) but becomes more pronounced in the remote future (2071–2100). Since largest increases are to be found in Alsace, potential impacts of an increasing amount of landslides are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-W{\"{u}}rttemberg by further enriching the climate information with additional geodata. The findings derived are suitable to support political decision makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's ground transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity.},
author = {Schl{\"{o}}gl, Matthias and Matulla, Christoph},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-18-1121-2018},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1121--1132},
title = {{Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century}},
url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1121/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Schlaepfer2017,
abstract = {Drylands cover 40{\%} of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.},
author = {Schlaepfer, Daniel R. and Bradford, John B. and Lauenroth, William K. and Munson, Seth M. and Tietjen, Britta and Hall, Sonia A. and Wilson, Scott D. and Duniway, Michael C. and Jia, Gensuo and Pyke, David A. and Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg and Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms14196},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {apr},
number = {1},
pages = {14196},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ncomms14196 http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14196},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Schlenker2009,
abstract = {The United States produces 41{\%} of the world's corn and 38{\%} of the world's soybeans. These crops comprise two of the four largest sources of caloric energy produced and are thus critical for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level yields for these two crops, plus cotton (a warmer-weather crop), with a new fine-scale weather dataset that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures within each day and across all days in the growing season. We find that yields increase with temperature up to 29° C for corn, 30° C for soybeans, and 32° C for cotton but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found when we isolate either time-series or cross-sectional variations in temperatures and yields. This suggests limited historical adaptation of seed varieties or management practices to warmer temperatures because the cross-section includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the time-series does not. Holding current growing regions fixed, area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30–46{\%} before the end of the century under the slowest (B1) warming scenario and decrease by 63–82{\%} under the most rapid warming scenario (A1FI) under the Hadley III model.},
author = {Schlenker, Wolfram and Roberts, Michael J},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0906865106},
file = {::},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {37},
pages = {15594--15598},
pmid = {19717432},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19717432 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC2747166 http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.0906865106},
volume = {106},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Schleussner2016b,
abstract = {Abstract. Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2{\&}deg;C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5{\&}deg;C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5{\&}deg;C and 2{\&}deg;C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5{\&}deg;C and 2{\&}deg;C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5{\&}deg;C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2{\&}deg;C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90{\%} in 2050 and projected to decline to 70{\%} by 2100 for a 1.5{\&}deg;C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9{\%} to 17{\%} between 1.5{\&}deg;C and 2{\&}deg;C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11{\%}. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2{\&}deg;C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5{\&}deg;C scenario. In a 1.5{\&}deg;C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30{\%} compared to a 2{\&}deg;C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5{\&}deg;C and 2{\&}deg;C warming.},
author = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Lissner, Tabea K. and Fischer, Erich M. and Wohland, Jan and Perrette, Mah{\'{e}} and Golly, Antonius and Rogelj, Joeri and Childers, Katelin and Schewe, Jacob and Frieler, Katja and Mengel, Matthias and Hare, William and Schaeffer, Michiel},
doi = {10.5194/esd-7-327-2016},
isbn = {2190-4987},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {327--351},
title = {{Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/7/327/2016/},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Schmidt2016,
author = {Schmidt, Charles W.},
doi = {10.1289/ehp.124-A70},
issn = {0091-6765},
journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {A71--A75},
publisher = {Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services},
title = {{Pollen Overload: Seasonal Allergies in a Changing Climate}},
url = {https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.124-A70},
volume = {124},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Schmidtko2017,
abstract = {The oxygen content of the global ocean has decreased by more than two per cent over the past five decades, with large variations found in different ocean basins and at different ocean depths.},
author = {Schmidtko, Sunke and Stramma, Lothar and Visbeck, Martin},
doi = {10.1038/nature21399},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Climate sciences,Marine chemistry,Physical oceanography},
month = {feb},
number = {7641},
pages = {335--339},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nature21399},
volume = {542},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Schmucki2015,
abstract = {Twenty-first century snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) changes are assessed for three time periods (2020–2049, 2045–2079 and 2070–2099) at 11 stations in Switzerland with the physics-based snow model SNOWPACK and meteorological input data perturbed by the output from ten regional climate models (RCMs) through the delta change method. Unlike in previous studies, incoming long-wave radiation has also been modified for future climatic conditions. We thus show the range of future snow simulations assuming different RCM projections. Model validation yields satisfying results for simulating snow depth and SWE for the reference period with errors in the order of 9{\%} and 15{\%}, respectively. For the end of the century, the stations between 1000–1700 m a.s.l. show no pronounced elevation dependence but surprisingly react quite similarly in terms of the relative magnitude of snow cover decrease, which may reach 90{\%}. The projected small increase in winter precipitation has almost no effect at these stations, but incoming long-wave radiation has an important effect. At the high-elevation station Weissfluhjoch (2540 m a.s.l.) however, the precipitation increase is partly able to compensate for the increased temperature. This would imply that the snow cover at mid-elevation stations becomes temperature and radiation dominated and will react similarly to the spatially small differences in the projected temperature change. The low-elevation stations already show a strong decrease in the near future, and the inclusion of modified incoming long-wave radiation has almost no effect on the decrease of future snow depth and SWE because the temperatures are already close to the melting point in the reference period. At the end of the century, mean snow depth/SWE are reduced by 35/32{\%}, 83/86{\%} and 96/97{\%} at high-, mid- and low-elevations, respectively.},
author = {Schmucki, Edgar and Marty, Christoph and Fierz, Charles and Lehning, Michael},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4205},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {sep},
number = {11},
pages = {3262--3273},
title = {{Simulations of 21st century snow response to climate change in Switzerland from a set of RCMs}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4205},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Schnell2016,
abstract = {The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year 2000 levels. Climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle. Increases in mean summertime and high-percentile ozone are generally found in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments. We propose that climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations. Even with constant biogenic emissions, climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles. In most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution.},
author = {Schnell, Jordan L. and Prather, Michael J. and Josse, Beatrice and Naik, Vaishali and Horowitz, Larry W. and Zeng, Guang and Shindell, Drew T. and Faluvegi, Greg},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL068060},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {chemistry-climate modeling,climate change,surface ozone},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3509--3518},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL068060 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016GL068060 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068060},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Schnell2018,
abstract = {Abstract. Northern India (23–31° N, 68–90° E) is one of the most densely populated and polluted regions in world. Accurately modeling pollution in the region is difficult due to the extreme conditions with respect to emissions, meteorology, and topography, but it is paramount in order to understand how future changes in emissions and climate may alter the region's pollution regime. We evaluate the ability of a developmental version of the new-generation NOAA GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4) to simulate observed wintertime fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and its relationship to meteorology over Northern India. We compare two simulations of GFDL-AM4 nudged to observed meteorology for the period 1980–2016 driven by pollutant emissions from two global inventories developed in support of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6), and compare results with ground-based observations from India's Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) for the period 1 October 2015–31 March 2016. Overall, our results indicate that the simulation with CMIP6 emissions produces improved concentrations of pollutants over the region relative to the CMIP5-driven simulation. While the particulate concentrations simulated by AM4 are biased low overall, the model generally simulates the magnitude and daily variability of observed total PM2.5. Nitrate and organic matter are the primary components of PM2.5 over Northern India in the model. On the basis of correlations of the individual model components with total observed PM2.5 and correlations between the two simulations, meteorology is the primary driver of daily variability. The model correctly reproduces the shape and magnitude of the seasonal cycle of PM2.5, but the simulated diurnal cycle misses the early evening rise and secondary maximum found in the observations. Observed PM2.5 abundances are by far the highest within the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plain, where they are closely related to boundary layer meteorology, specifically relative humidity, wind speed, boundary layer height, and inversion strength. The GFDL AM4 model reproduces the overall observed pollution gradient over Northern India as well as the strength of the meteorology–PM2.5 relationship in most locations.},
author = {Schnell, Jordan L. and Naik, Vaishali and Horowitz, Larry W. and Paulot, Fabien and Mao, Jingqiu and Ginoux, Paul and Zhao, Ming and Ram, Kirpa},
doi = {10.5194/acp-18-10157-2018},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {10157--10175},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Exploring the relationship between surface PM2.5 and meteorology in Northern India}},
url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/18/10157/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Schoepf2015,
abstract = {Mass bleaching events are predicted to occur annually later this century. Nevertheless, it remains unknown whether corals will be able to recover between annual bleaching events. Using a combined tank and field experiment, we simulated annual bleaching by exposing three Caribbean coral species (Porites divaricata, Porites astreoides and Orbicella faveolata) to elevated temperatures for 2.5 weeks in 2 consecutive years. The impact of annual bleaching stress on chlorophyll a, energy reserves, calcification, and tissue C and N isotopes was assessed immediately after the second bleaching and after both short- and long-term recovery on the reef (1.5 and 11 months, respectively). While P. divaricata and O. faveolata were able to recover from repeat bleaching within 1 year, P. astreoides experienced cumulative damage that prevented full recovery within this time frame, suggesting that repeat bleaching had diminished its recovery capacity. Specifically, P. astreoides was not able to recover protein and carbohydra...},
author = {Schoepf, Verena and Grottoli, Andr{\'{e}}a G. and Levas, Stephen J. and Aschaffenburg, Matthew D. and Baumann, Justin H. and Matsui, Yohei and Warner, Mark E.},
doi = {10.1098/rspb.2015.1887},
issn = {0962-8452},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
month = {nov},
number = {1819},
pages = {20151887},
publisher = {The Royal Society},
title = {{Annual coral bleaching and the long-term recovery capacity of coral}},
volume = {282},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Schuster2018,
abstract = {Changing climate in northern regions is causing permafrost to thaw with major implications for the global mercury (Hg) cycle. We estimated Hg in permafrost regions based on in situ measurements of sediment total mercury (STHg), soil organic carbon (SOC), and the Hg to carbon ratio (RHgC) combined with maps of soil carbon. We measured a median STHg of 43 ± 30 ng Hg g soil−1 and a median RHgC of 1.6 ± 0.9 $\mu$g Hg g C−1, consistent with published results of STHg for tundra soils and 11,000 measurements from 4,926 temperate, nonpermafrost sites in North America and Eurasia. We estimate that the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions contain 1,656 ± 962 Gg Hg, of which 793 ± 461 Gg Hg is frozen in permafrost. Permafrost soils store nearly twice as much Hg as all other soils, the ocean, and the atmosphere combined, and this Hg is vulnerable to release as permafrost thaws over the next century. Existing estimates greatly underestimate Hg in permafrost soils, indicating a need to reevaluate the role of the Arctic regions in the global Hg cycle.},
author = {Schuster, Paul F. and Schaefer, Kevin M. and Aiken, George R. and Antweiler, Ronald C. and Dewild, John F. and Gryziec, Joshua D. and Gusmeroli, Alessio and Hugelius, Gustaf and Jafarov, Elchin and Krabbenhoft, David P. and Liu, Lin and Herman-Mercer, Nicole and Mu, Cuicui and Roth, David A. and Schaefer, Tim and Striegl, Robert G. and Wickland, Kimberly P. and Zhang, Tingjun},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075571},
issn = {19448007},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {mercury,permafrost,storage,thawing},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {1463--1471},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Permafrost Stores a Globally Significant Amount of Mercury}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL075571 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL075571 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075571},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Schwingshackl2021,
author = {Schwingshackl, Clemens and Sillmann, Jana and Vicedo‐Cabrera, Ana Maria and Sandstad, Marit and Aunan, Kristin},
doi = {10.1029/2020EF001885},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {feb},
pages = {e2020EF001885},
title = {{Heat Stress Indicators in CMIP6: Estimating Future Trends and Exceedances of Impact-Relevant Thresholds}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001885},
volume = {9},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Sciance2018,
abstract = {Bangladesh is a country that comprises much of the world's largest delta, formed from the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) rivers and their tributaries. Flooding is a fact of life in Bangladesh where up to two-thirds of the country is flooded annually from combined monsoonal rains and Himalayan snowmelt. For this reason, understanding flood dynamics on both local and regional scales is critical. However, flood hazard studies to date typically rely on single flooding events to create flood maps and to evaluate flood hazards using satellite imagery. Here we use geographic information systems to analyze weekly water level data from 304 river gauges and over 1200 groundwater gauges from the Bangladesh Water Development Board to determine the spatial and temporal changes in flood depth and extent. These data cover an eight year period from 2002 to 2010 and provide a temporal resolution that match or are better than that of available satellite imagery. Country-wide ground and surface water levels and corresponding annual flooding events were determined along with groundwater level, flooding, and precipitation trends in Bangladesh at multiple scales. We find that while precipitation within the GBM basin has steadily increased through the time series, the average country-wide inundation depth and absolute water level has been decreasing. These respective trends could be attributed to improved flood management strategies in Bangladesh and surrounding countries that are within the GBM basin, as well as fluctuating weather patterns, declining volume of Himalayan snowmelt runoff, dam construction upriver from the GBD both within and outside the Bangladesh border, and increased groundwater abstraction of shallow groundwater aquifers for sustaining life in the eighth most populous country in the world.},
author = {Sciance, Marc Benjamin and Nooner, Scott L},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-017-3036-7},
issn = {1573-0840},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
number = {1},
pages = {115--135},
title = {{Decadal flood trends in Bangladesh from extensive hydrographic data}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3036-7},
volume = {90},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Scott2018,
abstract = {The aim of the paper is to present a story about the 2015 to early 2017 Windhoek drought in the context of climate change while using the narrative approach. The story that is presented here is derived from the engagement of participants in a transdisciplinary, co-productive workshop, the Windhoek Learning Lab 1 (March 2017), as part of the FRACTAL Research Programme. The results show that the story starts with the ‘complication' where the drought had reached crisis levels where the water demand increasingly exceeded the supply in the face of the drought. The City of Windhoek (CoW) was unable to address the problem, particularly the recharging of the Windhoek aquifer due to lack of funding. Phase 2 then shows four reactions to the drought: water conservation by water demand management; a Water Saving campaign; the Windhoek Managed Aquifer Recharge Scheme; and, the setting up of the Cabinet Technical Committee of Supply Security. The resolution of the story, Phase 4, is when the national government instructs NamWater to provide the funds for CoW to complete the recharging of the aquifer, which supplied water to the city at the last minute at the end of 2016. The final situation of the story is that ongoing collaborative work by CoW with FRACTAL on the city's burning issues is planned to integrate climate change into future decision making for the longer term. The main actors in the story are the Ministry of Agriculture and NamWater as hero and villain, and CoW a hero, with the victims of the story, the residents of informal settlements. The main learnings from this story are that the lack of decentralization of power and resources serve to exacerbate water crises at the local level and hamper climate adaptation, despite a proactive and innovative local municipality. The paper also shows that the narrative approach provides the thread of the story to simplify a very complex set of arrangements and contradictions.},
author = {Scott, Dianne and Iipinge, Kornelia and Mfune, John and Muchadenyika, Davison and Makuti, Olavi and Ziervogel, Gina},
doi = {10.3390/w10101366},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
keywords = {Co-production,Narrative,Participatory,Transdisciplinary,Water,Windhoek},
month = {sep},
number = {10},
pages = {1366},
title = {{The Story of Water in Windhoek: A Narrative Approach to Interpreting a Transdisciplinary Process}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/10/1366},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Scott2020,
abstract = {The demand for foresight on how climate change will alter the competitiveness of ski destinations continues to increase. Norway is often considered the country where modern skiing began, yet its climate change risk remains largely unknown. The SkiSim2 model is run with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission climate futures to analyse implications for ski season at 110 alpine ski areas in Norway in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s with only natural snow and with advanced snowmaking. A considerable shortening of the ski season in projected as early as the 2030s for the half of ski areas that currently lack snowmaking. Naturally snow reliable ski areas decline from approximately half in the 2030s to a third in the 2050s. With snowmaking, ski season losses are substantially reduced and the majority of ski areas remain snow reliable until the end of the twenty-first century in a lower emission future. A substantial shortening of the ski season (up to 40 days) nonetheless begins in the 2050s under a high emission scenario. The need to invest in snowmaking will continue to increase, with attendant financial and sustainability implications. The differential climate risk among five regions of Norway and the European Alps is also discussed.},
author = {Scott, Daniel and Steiger, Robert and Dannevig, Halvor and Aall, Carlo},
doi = {10.1080/13683500.2019.1608919},
issn = {13683500},
journal = {Current Issues in Tourism},
keywords = {Ski industry,adaptation,climate change,snowmaking,sustainability},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {2396--2409},
publisher = {Routledge},
title = {{Climate change and the future of the Norwegian alpine ski industry}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13683500.2019.1608919},
volume = {23},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Seager2018,
abstract = {The 100th meridian bisects the Great Plains of the United States and effectively divides the continent into more arid western and less arid eastern halves and is well expressed in terms of vegetation, land hydrology, crops, and the farm economy. Here, it is considered how this arid–humid divide will change in intensity and location during the current century under rising greenhouse gases. It is first shown that state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project generally underestimate the degree of aridity of the United States and simulate an arid–humid divide that is too diffuse. These biases are traced to excessive precipitation and evapotranspiration and inadequate blocking of eastward moisture flux by the Pacific coastal ranges and Rockies. Bias-corrected future projections are developed that modify observationally based measures of aridity by the model-projected fractional changes in aridity. Aridity increases across the United States, and the aridity gradient weakens. The main contributor to the changes is rising potential evapotranspiration, while changes in precipitation working alone increase aridity across the southern and decrease across the northern United States. The “effective 100th meridian” moves to the east as the century progresses. In the current farm economy, farm size and percent of county under rangelands increase and percent of cropland under corn decreases as aridity increases. Statistical relations between these quantities and the bias-corrected aridity projections suggest that, all else being equal (which it will not be), adjustment to changing environmental conditions would cause farm size and rangeland area to increase across the plains and percent of cropland under corn to decrease in the northern plains as the century advances.},
author = {Seager, Richard and Feldman, Jamie and Lis, Nathan and Ting, Mingfang and Williams, Alton P. and Nakamura, Jennifer and Liu, Haibo and Henderson, Naomi},
doi = {10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1},
issn = {1087-3562},
journal = {Earth Interactions},
keywords = {Agriculture,Hydrometeorology,North America,Vegetation–atmosphere interactions},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {1--24},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Whither the 100th Meridian? The Once and Future Physical and Human Geography of America's Arid–Humid Divide. Part II: The Meridian Moves East}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sedlmeier2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Studies using climate models and observed trends indicate that extreme weather has changed and may continue to change in the future. The potential impact of extreme events such as heat waves or droughts depends not only on their number of occurrences but also on "how these extremes occur", i.e., the interplay and succession of the events. These quantities are quite unexplored, for past changes as well as for future changes and call for sophisticated methods of analysis. To address this issue, we use Markov chains for the analysis of the dynamics and succession of multivariate or compound extreme events. We apply the method to observational data (1951–2010) and an ensemble of regional climate simulations for central Europe (1971–2000, 2021–2050) for two types of compound extremes, heavy precipitation and cold in winter and hot and dry days in summer. We identify three regions in Europe, which turned out to be likely susceptible to a future change in the succession of heavy precipitation and cold in winter, including a region in southwestern France, northern Germany and in Russia around Moscow. A change in the succession of hot and dry days in summer can be expected for regions in Spain and Bulgaria. The susceptibility to a dynamic change of hot and dry extremes in the Russian region will probably decrease.},
author = {Sedlmeier, Katrin and Mieruch, Sebastian and Sch{\"{a}}dler, Gerd and Kottmeier, Christoph},
doi = {10.5194/npg-23-375-2016},
issn = {1607-7946},
journal = {Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics},
month = {nov},
number = {6},
pages = {375--390},
title = {{Compound extremes in a changing climate – a Markov chain approach}},
url = {www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/23/375/2016/ https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/23/375/2016/},
volume = {23},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Seeley2015a,
abstract = {How will warming temperatures influence thunderstorm severity? This question can be explored by using climate models to diagnose changes in large-scale convective instability (CAPE) and wind shear, conditions that are known to be conducive to the formation of severe thunderstorms. First, an ensemble of climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is evaluated on its ability to reproduce a radiosonde climatology of such storm-favorable conditions in the current climate's spring and summer seasons, focusing on the contiguous United States (CONUS). Of the 11 climate models evaluated, a high-performing subset of four (GFDL CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, MRI-CGCM3, and NorESM1-M) is identified. Second, the twenty-first-century changes in the frequency of environments favorable to severe thunderstorms are calculated in these high-performing models as they are forced by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions pathways. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the models predict consistent CONUS-mean fracti...},
author = {Seeley, Jacob T. and Romps, David M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00382.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {CAPE,Climate change,Convective storms,Hail,Wind shear},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {2443--2458},
pmid = {101555450},
title = {{The effect of global warming on severe thunderstorms in the United States}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00382.1},
volume = {28},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Segura2014,
abstract = {Abstract: Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Quantifying the effects of climate change-induced erosivity change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. In this study we first evaluate the changes of R from 1970 to 2090 across the United States under nine climate conditions predicted by three general circulation models for three emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Then, we identify watersheds that are most vulnerable to future climate change in terms of soil erosion potential. We develop a novel approach to evaluate future trends of R magnitude and variance by incorporating both the rate of change with time as well as the level of agreement between climatic projections. Our results show that mean decadal R values would increase with time according to all nine climatic projections considered between 1970 and 2090. However, these trends vary widely spatially. In general, catchments in the northeastern and northwestern United States are characterized by strong increasing trends in R, while the trends in the midwestern and southwestern United States are either weak or inconsistent among the nine climatic projections considered. The northeastern and northwestern United States will likely experience a significant increase in annual variability of R (i.e., increase in extreme events). Conversely the variability of R is unlikely to change in large areas of the Midwest. At the watershed scale (8-digit Hydrologic Unit Code), the mean vulnerability to erosion scores vary between -0.12 and 0.35 with a mean of 0.04. The five hydrologic regions with the highest mean vulnerability to erosion are 5, 6, 2, 1, and 17, with values varying between 0.06 and 0.09. These regions occupy large areas of Ohio, Maryland, Indiana, Vermont, and Illinois, with mean erosion vulnerability score statewide above 0.08. Future watershed management aiming at reducing soil erosion should focus on areas with the highest soil erosion vulnerability identified by this study. Copyright {\textcopyright} 2014 Soil and Water Conservation Society.},
author = {Segura, Catalina and Sun, Ge and McNulty, Steve and Zhang, Yang},
doi = {10.2489/jswc.69.2.171},
issn = {0022-4561},
journal = {Journal of Soil and Water Conservation},
keywords = {Climate change,Erosivity factor,Extreme events,Precipitation,Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation,Soil erosion},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {171--181},
title = {{Potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion vulnerability across the conterminous United States}},
url = {http://www.jswconline.org/cgi/doi/10.2489/jswc.69.2.171},
volume = {69},
year = {2014}
}
@misc{Seidl2017,
abstract = {Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.},
author = {Seidl, Rupert and Thom, Dominik and Kautz, Markus and Martin-Benito, Dario and Peltoniemi, Mikko and Vacchiano, Giorgio and Wild, Jan and Ascoli, Davide and Petr, Michal and Honkaniemi, Juha and Lexer, Manfred J. and Trotsiuk, Volodymyr and Mairota, Paola and Svoboda, Miroslav and Fabrika, Marek and Nagel, Thomas A. and Reyer, Christopher P.O.},
booktitle = {Nature Climate Change},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3303},
issn = {17586798},
keywords = {Climate,Fire ecology,Forest ecology,change ecology},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {395--402},
pmid = {28861124},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Forest disturbances under climate change}},
url = {www.nature.com/natureclimatechange},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sein2018,
abstract = {Projected increase in frequency and severity of extreme events are important threat brought by climate change. Thus, there is a need to understand the dynamics and magnitude of climate extreme at local and regional level. This study examines the patterns of annual trends and changes of extreme daily temperature and precipitation in Myanmar for the period of 1981 to 2015 using the RClimDex 1.1 software. The trends of maximum and minimum temperature show significant warming trends (p {\textless} 0.001) across Myanmar. From 2009 to 2015, the maximum temperature anomaly has continuously increased by 0.5 °C for all years except 2011. The larger rise in both maximum and minimum temperature observed after 2000 suggests that, overall, days and nights are becoming hotter for the entirety of Myanmar over this recent period. Furthermore, our works also show that the temperature extreme indices of warm days and warm nights have increased, whereas the frequency of cool days and cool nights have decreased. Our analysis also reveals that increasing trends in precipitation anomaly were not significant during 1981–2015. On the contrary, slight increasing trends towards wetter conditions were observed with a rate of 76.52 mm/decade during the study period. The other precipitation extreme indicators—namely, annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), heavy precipitation days (R20mm), extreme wet days precipitation (R99p), and consecutive wet days (CWD)—are consistent with warming trends. Additionally, the relationship between inter-annual variability in the climate extremes indices and Oceanic Ni{\~{n}}o Index (ONI) patterns was also examined with a focus on the influence of the El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.},
author = {Sein, Kyu Kyu and Chidthaisong, Amnat and Oo, Kyaw Lwin},
doi = {10.3390/atmos9120477},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {477},
title = {{Observed Trends and Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Indices over Myanmar}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/12/477},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Selyuzhenok2015,
author = {Selyuzhenok, V. and Krumpen, T. and Mahoney, A. and Janout, M. and Gerdes, R.},
doi = {10.1002/2015JC011135},
issn = {2169-9275},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {7791--7806},
title = {{Seasonal and interannual variability of fast ice extent in the southeastern Laptev Sea between 1999 and 2013}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015JC011135},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Roy2019a,
abstract = {Station level daily maximum and minimum temperature data spread across India were analyzed for trends in seasonal extreme temperature indices. The trends were calculated for the recent period of 1980–2010, when some of the warmest temperatures were recorded at the global scale. The results of the analysis revealed substantial variations in the spatial patterns of the trends. The majority of the study area experienced declining trends in diurnal temperature range during all seasons. However, substantial variations were observed for the different extreme temperature indices. During the first half of the year, which constitutes the drier summer and winter months, a declining trend in extreme maximum and minimum temperature indices were observed over most of peninsular India and the reverse in northern India. The spatial patterns were in general similar for the first half of the year, winter and summer, which constitute the drier months. The spatial patterns can be attributed to both local and regional level processes, such as aerosol levels and land use land cover changes.},
author = {{Sen Roy}, Shouraseni},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2019.100203},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
keywords = {Extreme temperatures,India,Monsoon,Seasonal trends},
month = {jun},
pages = {100203},
title = {{Spatial patterns of trends in seasonal extreme temperatures in India during 1980–2010}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094718301403 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094718301403},
volume = {24},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sena2018,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater} This study investigates the variability of the seasonal cycle of convection in the Brazilian Amazon basin during the last decades, and examines physical mechanisms that potentially trigger these modifications. A new methodology to evaluate the onset and length of the rainy season using long-term cloud fraction observations from geostationary satellites is proposed and the connection between cloud cycle variability, surface properties, and thermodynamic and dynamic conditions is explored. The results show that cloud cover has significantly decreased over the last decades. The decline in cloudiness is steeper at 1200 UTC (0800 LT), when a trend of up to −6{\%} decade {\textless}sup{\textgreater}−1{\textless}/sup{\textgreater} is observed over the central and eastern Amazon. High-cloud-cover reduction is the major contributor to the observed decline in total cloud fraction. Delayed onsets and a reduction of up to 4 days yr {\textless}sup{\textgreater}−1{\textless}/sup{\textgreater} in the northern and central Amazon wet-season length are observed. Correlation analyses indicate that the El Ni{\~{n}}o phenomenon affects the interannual variability of cloudiness in the Amazon, leading to delayed onset and early demise of the rainy season. The tropical South Atlantic, the Pacific warm pool, and the North Atlantic tripole also play a small, but significant, role in the Amazon's cloudiness variability. The decrease in cloudiness over the Amazon basin reduces the amount of solar radiation reflected back to space while increasing irradiance at the surface. This local warming alters surface heat fluxes and the atmospheric thermodynamic profile, further affecting cloud development. The strong tendencies reported here indicate a significant shift in the Amazonian hydroclimate during the last few decades. {\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Sena, Elisa T. and Dias, M. A. F. Silva and Carvalho, L. M. V. and Dias, P. L. Silva},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0702.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {9941--9964},
title = {{Reduced Wet-Season Length Detected by Satellite Retrievals of Cloudiness over Brazilian Amazonia: A New Methodology}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0702.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sena2012,
author = {Sena, Jos{\'{e}} Ant{\^{o}}nio and {Beser de Deus}, Leandro Andrei and Freitas, Marcos Aur{\'{e}}lio V. and Costa, Lazaro},
doi = {10.1007/s11269-012-9978-3},
issn = {0920-4741},
journal = {Water Resources Management},
month = {apr},
number = {6},
pages = {1665--1676},
title = {{Extreme Events of Droughts and Floods in Amazonia: 2005 and 2009}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-012-9978-3},
volume = {26},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Senatore2019,
author = {Senatore, Alfonso and Hejabi, Somayeh and Mendicino, Giuseppe and Bazrafshan, Javad and Irannejad, Parviz},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4171-x},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {865--891},
publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
title = {{Climate conditions and drought assessment with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in Iran: evaluation of CORDEX South Asia climate projections (2070–2099)}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4171-x},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Seneviratne2020,
abstract = {Abstract We analyze projected changes in climate extremes (extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation) in the multimodel ensembles of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results reveal close similarity between both ensembles in the regional climate sensitivity of the projected multimodel mean changes in climate extremes, that is, their projected changes as a function of global warming. This stands in contrast to widely reported divergences in global (transient and equilibrium) climate sensitivity in the two multimodel ensembles. Some exceptions include higher warming in the South America monsoon region, lower warming in Southern Asia and Central Africa, and higher increases in heavy precipitation in Western Africa and the Sahel region in the CMIP6 ensemble. The multimodel spread in regional climate sensitivity is found to be large in both ensembles. In particular, it contributes more to intermodel spread in projected regional climate extremes compared with the intermodel spread in global climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Our results highlight the need to consider regional climate sensitivity as a distinct feature of Earth system models and a key determinant of projected regional impacts, which is largely independent of the models' response in global climate sensitivity.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001474},
author = {Seneviratne, Sonia I and Hauser, Mathias},
doi = {10.1029/2019EF001474},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {CMIP5,CMIP6,climate extremes,climate models,climate projections,regional climate sensitivity},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {e2019EF001474},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles}},
url = {10.1029/2019EF001474},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sepulveda2015,
abstract = {A new data set of landslides that caused loss of life in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 10-year period from 2004 and 2013 inclusive has been compiled, providing new insight into the impact of landslides in this key part of the world. This data set indicates that in the 10-year period a total of 11 631 people lost their lives across the region in 611 landslides. The geographical distribution of the landslides is highly heterogeneous, with areas of high incidence in parts of the Caribbean (most notably Haiti), Central America, Colombia, and southeast Brazil. There is significant interannual variation in the number of landslides, with the El Ni{\~{n}}o/La Ni{\~{n}}a cycle emerging as a key control. Our analysis suggests that on a continental scale the mapped factors that best explain the observed distribution are topography, annual precipitation and population density. On a national basis we have compared the occurrence of fatality-inducing landslide occurrence with the production of locally authored research articles, demonstrating that there is a landslide research deficit in Latin America and the Caribbean. Understanding better the mechanisms, distribution causes and triggers of landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean must be an essential first step towards managing the hazard.},
author = {Sep{\'{u}}lveda, S. A. and Petley, D. N.},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-15-1821-2015},
issn = {16849981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
number = {8},
pages = {1821--1833},
title = {{Regional trends and controlling factors of fatal landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean}},
volume = {15},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Seth2013,
author = {Seth, Anji and Rauscher, Sara A. and Biasutti, Michela and Giannini, Alessandra and Camargo, Suzana J. and Rojas, Maisa},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00726.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {7328--7351},
title = {{CMIP5 Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00726.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@misc{Sharma2019b,
abstract = {Ice provides a range of ecosystem services—including fish harvest 1 , cultural traditions 2 , transportation 3 , recreation 4 and regulation of the hydrological cycle 5 —to more than half of the world's 117 million lakes. One of the earliest observed impacts of climatic warming has been the loss of freshwater ice 6 , with corresponding climatic and ecological consequences 7 . However, while trends in ice cover phenology have been widely documented 2,6,8,9 , a comprehensive large-scale assessment of lake ice loss is absent. Here, using observations from 513 lakes around the Northern Hemisphere, we identify lakes vulnerable to ice-free winters. Our analyses reveal the importance of air temperature, lake depth, elevation and shoreline complexity in governing ice cover. We estimate that 14,800 lakes currently experience intermittent winter ice cover, increasing to 35,300 and 230,400 at 2 and 8 °C, respectively, and impacting up to 394 and 656 million people. Our study illustrates that an extensive loss of lake ice will occur within the next generation, stressing the importance of climate mitigation strategies to preserve ecosystem structure and function, as well as local winter cultural heritage.},
author = {Sharma, Sapna and Blagrave, Kevin and Magnuson, John J. and O'Reilly, Catherine M. and Oliver, Samantha and Batt, Ryan D. and Magee, Madeline R. and Straile, Dietmar and Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A. and Winslow, Luke and Woolway, R. Iestyn},
booktitle = {Nature Climate Change},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0393-5},
issn = {17586798},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {227--231},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere in a warming world}},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Shatwell2019,
author = {Shatwell, Tom and Thiery, Wim and Kirillin, Georgiy},
doi = {10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1533--1551},
title = {{Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes}},
url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/1533/2019/},
volume = {23},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sheikh2015,
abstract = {ABSTRACT Over the last few decades, weather and climate extremes have become a major focus of researchers, the media and general public due to their damaging effects on human society and infrastructure. Trends in indices of climate extremes are studied for the South Asian region using high-quality records of daily temperature and precipitation observations. Data records from 210 (265) temperature (precipitation) observation stations are analysed over the period 1971?2000 (1961?2000). Spatial maps of station trends, time series of regional averages and frequency distribution analysis form the basis of this study. Due to the highly diverse geography of the South Asian region, the results are also described for some specific regions, such as the island of Sri Lanka; the tropical region (excluding Sri Lanka); the Greater Himalayas above 35°N, the Eastern Himalayas (Nepal) and the Thar Desert. Generally, changes in the frequency of temperature extremes over South Asia are what one would expect in a warming world; warm extremes have become more common and cold extremes less common. The warming influence is greater in the Eastern Himalayas compared with that in the Greater Himalayas. The Thar Desert also shows enhanced warming, but increases are mostly less than in the Eastern Himalayas. Changes in the indices of extreme precipitation are more mixed than those of temperature, with spatially coherent changes evident only at relatively small scales. Nevertheless, most extreme precipitation indices show increases in the South Asia average, consistent with globally averaged results. The indices trends are further studied in the context of Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) over the region. Countries falling within the ABC hotspot namely Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) have shown a different behaviour on the trends of extreme indices compared with the parts outside this hotspot. IGP has increased temperature and decreased rainfall and tally closely with the actual trends.},
author = {Sheikh, M M and Manzoor, N and Ashraf, J and Adnan, M and Collins, D and Hameed, S and Manton, M J and Ahmed, A U and Baidya, S K and Borgaonkar, H P and Islam, N and Jayasinghearachchi, D and Kothawale, D R and Premalal, K H M S and Revadekar, J V and Shrestha, M L},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4081},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Indo-Gangetic Plain,atmospheric brown clouds,extreme indices,hotspot},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {1625--1637},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature indices over South Asia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4081},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Shepherd2016,
author = {Shepherd, Theodore G.},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y},
issn = {2198-6061},
journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {28--38},
title = {{A Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y},
volume = {2},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sherwood2014,
abstract = {Global temperature increases affect the water cycle over land, but the nature of these changes remains difficult to predict. A key conceptual problem is to distinguish between droughts, which are transient regional extreme phenomena typically defined as departures from a local climatological norm that is presumed known, and the normal or background dryness itself. This background dryness depends on precipitation, but also on how fast water would evaporate. As the planet warms, global average rainfall increases, but so does evaporation. What is the likely net impact on average aridity?},
author = {Sherwood, Steven and Fu, Qiang},
doi = {10.1126/science.1247620},
file = {::},
isbn = {1095-9203 (Electronic)$\backslash$n0036-8075 (Linking)},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {feb},
number = {6172},
pages = {737--739},
pmid = {24531959},
title = {{A Drier Future?}},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1247620},
volume = {343},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Chen2018a,
abstract = {Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 ◦C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 ◦C world, under 2◦C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5 ◦C world, 13.8{\%} of the world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9{\%}) under 2 ◦Cwarming, i.e. a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5 ◦C will also result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and ∼65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0{\%} of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5 ◦C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2{\%}) in a 2 ◦Cworld. With current emission trends threatening even the 2 ◦C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5 ◦C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.},
author = {Shi, Chen and Jiang, Zhi-Hong and Chen, Wei-Lin and Li, Laurent},
doi = {10.1016/j.accre.2017.11.003},
issn = {16749278},
journal = {Advances in Climate Change Research},
keywords = {1.5 ◦C and 2◦C globalwarming,HWMId,extreme heat waves},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {120--129},
title = {{Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming targets}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab827/meta https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S167492781730103X},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Shiklomanov2017,
author = {Shiklomanov, Nikolay I. and Streletskiy, Dmitry A. and Swales, Timothy B. and Kokorev, Vasily A.},
doi = {10.1111/gere.12214},
issn = {0016-7428},
journal = {Geographical Review},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {125--142},
title = {{Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1111/gere.12214},
volume = {107},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Shin2018,
author = {Shin, Jongsoo and Olson, Roman and An, Soon-Il},
doi = {10.1007/s13143-017-0059-7},
issn = {1976-7633},
journal = {Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {53--61},
publisher = {Korean Meteorological Society},
title = {{Projected Heat Wave Characteristics over the Korean Peninsula During the Twenty-First Century}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13143-017-0059-7},
volume = {54},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Shiogama2020,
author = {Shiogama, Hideo and Ito, Rui and Imada, Yukiko and Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki and Hirota, Nagio and Ishizaki, Noriko N. and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Takayabu, Izuru and Emori, Seita},
doi = {10.2151/sola.2020-013},
issn = {1349-6476},
journal = {SOLA},
month = {mar},
pages = {75--79},
title = {{Selecting Future Climate Projections of Surface Solar Radiation in Japan}},
url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/16/0/16{\_}2020-013/{\_}article},
volume = {16},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Shkolnik2018,
author = {Shkolnik, Igor and Pavlova, Tatiana and Efimov, Sergey and Zhuravlev, Sergey},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3600-6},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {215--230},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3600-6},
volume = {50},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Shope2016a,
abstract = {Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976-2005), mid-century, and end-century time periods for the December-February and June-August seasons. The December-February regional wave climate is dominated by strong winds and large swell from extratropical cyclones in the north Pacific while the June-August season brings smaller waves generated by the trade winds and swell from Southern Hemisphere extratropical storms. Extreme significant wave heights decreased ({\~{}}. 10.0{\%}) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing RCP 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing RCP 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-century June-August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December-February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June-August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds' influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell. The results of this study underscore that December-February large wave events will become smaller and less frequent in most regions, reducing the likelihood and magnitude of wave-driven flooding at these island locations over the 21st century. However, relatively large increases in the mean of the top 5{\%} of significant wave heights and large changes to the mean direction of these waves in the June-August season at several islands within 150-180° E will drive greater flooding and island morphological change along previously more stable shorelines. The reported results herein project large changes to tropical Pacific island wave climates that will be necessary for assessing island vulnerability under climate change in future studies.},
author = {Shope, James B. and Storlazzi, Curt D. and Erikson, Li H. and Hegermiller, Christie A.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.03.009},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {Pacific Islands,Tropical Pacific},
month = {jun},
pages = {25--38},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.03.009 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818115300230?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818115300230},
volume = {141},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Shrestha2019,
abstract = {This study focused on flood damage assessment for future floods under the impact of climate change. Four river basins of Southeast Asia were selected for the study. They included the Pampanga River Basin (PRB) in the Philippines, the Solo River Basin (SRB) in Indonesia, the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in Cambodia and Vietnam, and the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand. Flood damage to rice crops was assessed by flood damage functions considering flood depth and duration and the growth stage of rice plants. Flood characteristics such as flood depth, duration, and distribution were computed using the rainfall–runoff–inundation model to assess flood hazards under the present and future climatic conditions produced by MRI-AGCM3.2S. The damage assessment methodology for rice crops employed in this study was verified using data on past flood events. Then, flood damage assessment was conducted for both the present climate (1979–2003) and future climate (2075–2099) conditions, using MRI-AGCM3.2S precipitation datasets. Flood damage was assessed for worst cases chosen from each climate period and for floods of 50- and 100-year return periods with different rainfall patterns chosen from each climate scenario. The results of flood hazard and damage assessment show that the flood inundation area for a 100-year flood may increase in the future by 20{\%} in PRB; by 66{\%} in SRB; by 27{\%} in LMRB; and by 27{\%} in CPRB. The flood damage area of paddy fields for a 100-year flood may also increase in the future by 16{\%} in PRB; by 55{\%} in SRB; by 23{\%} in LMRB; and by 13{\%} in CPRB.},
author = {Shrestha, Badri Bhakta and Perera, Edangodage Duminda Pradeep and Kudo, Shun and Miyamoto, Mamoru and Yamazaki, Yusuke and Kuribayashi, Daisuke and Sawano, Hisaya and Sayama, Takahiro and Magome, Jun and Hasegawa, Akira and Ushiyama, Tomoki and Iwami, Yoichi and Tokunaga, Yoshio},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-019-03632-1},
issn = {1573-0840},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
keywords = {Climate change,Damage assessment,Flood hazard,Rainfall runoff inundation model,Southeast Asia},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {157--192},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Assessing flood disaster impacts in agriculture under climate change in the river basins of Southeast Asia}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03632-1},
volume = {97},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Shu2018,
author = {Shu, Qi and Qiao, Fangli and Song, Zhenya and Zhao, Jiechen and Li, Xinfang},
doi = {10.1029/2018JC014036},
issn = {2169-9275},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {9232--9244},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Projected Freshening of the Arctic Ocean in the 21st Century}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JC014036},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Siebert2017,
abstract = {Climate change will increase the number and severity of heat waves, and is expected to negatively affect crop yields. Here we show for wheat and maize across Europe that heat stress is considerably reduced by irrigation due to surface cooling for both current and projected future climate. We demonstrate that crop heat stress impact assessments should be based on canopy temperature because simulations with air temperatures measured at standard weather stations cannot reproduce differences in crop heat stress between irrigated and rainfed conditions. Crop heat stress was overestimated on irrigated land when air temperature was used with errors becoming larger with projected climate change. Corresponding errors in mean crop yield calculated across Europe for baseline climate 1984-2013 of 0.2 Mg yr-1 (2{\%}) and 0.6 Mg yr-1 (5{\%}) for irrigated winter wheat and irrigated grain maize, respectively, would increase to up to 1.5 Mg yr-1 (16{\%}) for irrigated winter wheat and 4.1 Mg yr-1 (39{\%}) for irrigated grain maize, depending on the climate change projection/GCM combination considered. We conclude that climate change impact assessments for crop heat stress need to account explicitly for the impact of irrigation.},
author = {Siebert, Stefan and Webber, Heidi and Zhao, Gang and Ewert, Frank},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa702f},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {canopy temperature,climate change impact assessment,heat stress,irrigation},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {054023},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Heat stress is overestimated in climate impact studies for irrigated agriculture}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa702f},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sierra2017,
abstract = {The aim of this paper was to analyse how changes in wave patterns, due to the effect of climate change, can affect wave energy power and yield around Menorca (NW Mediterranean Sea). The present and future wave energy conditions were derived from recently developed high-resolution wave projections in the NW Mediterranean. These wave projections were forced by surface wind fields obtained, respectively, by 5 different combinations of global and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs) for the A1B scenario. The results showed that the projected future spatial and directional distributions of wave energy are very similar to those of the present conditions. The multi-model ensemble average illustrated a slight general decrease in the annual and seasonal wave power (except for summer). However, the inter-model variability is large since two models showed opposite trends to the other 3 in most cases. Such inter-model variability is lower(higher) for winter(autumn). Another result is the reduction of the temporal variability in the future, considering both the multi-model mean and each single model projection. Such a decrease is consistent with the future seasonal redistribution of energy throughout the year. This would entail an increase in the efficiency of wave energy converters deployed in this area due to the more regular temporal distribution of the energy.},
author = {Sierra, J.P. and Casas-Prat, M. and Campins, E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2016.08.060},
issn = {09601481},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
keywords = {Balearic Islands,Climate change,Menorca Island,Wave energy,Wave energy converter},
month = {feb},
pages = {275--285},
title = {{Impact of climate change on wave energy resource: The case of Menorca (Spain)}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960148116307704 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960148116307704},
volume = {101},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sigmond2018,
abstract = {Under the Paris Agreement, emissions scenarios are pursued that would stabilize the global mean temperature at 1.5–2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, but current emission reduction policies are expected to limit warming by 2100 to approximately 3.0 °C. Whether such emissions scenarios would prevent a summer sea-ice-free Arctic is unknown. Here we employ stabilized warming simulations with an Earth System Model to obtain sea-ice projections under stabilized global warming, and correct biases in mean sea-ice coverage by constraining with observations. Although there is some sensitivity to details in the constraining method, the observationally constrained projections suggest that the benefits of going from 2.0 °C to 1.5 °C stabilized warming are substantial; an eightfold decrease in the frequency of ice-free conditions is expected, from once in every five to once in every forty years. Under 3.0 °C global mean warming, however, permanent summer ice-free conditions are likely, which emphasizes the need for nations to increase their commitments to the Paris Agreement.},
author = {Sigmond, Michael and Fyfe, John C. and Swart, Neil C.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0124-y},
isbn = {1758-678X
1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {5},
pages = {404--408},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0124-y},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sillmann2014,
abstract = {Percentile indices monitoring the frequency of moderate temperature extremes are widely used to assess changes in present and future temperature extremes because of their straightforward interpretation. While observed trends in such indices can be, and have been, compared with model-simulated trends, their definition relative to each model's own climatology inhibits their use for the evaluation of model-simulated temperature variability. This is unfortunate, as in many parts of the world, indices from observations remain the only source of publicly available information about extreme temperature variability. We approach this problem by introducing a novel adjustment to the standard method for deriving indices from climate models. This involves the removal of the bias in the mean annual cycle of the models and the use of percentile thresholds from a reference data set. We illustrate the technique by comparing daily minimum (TN) and maximum (TX) temperatures from the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) historical simulations with those from an observation-based data set and from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) reanalyses. Biases in the annual cycle also translate into biases in the representation of the percentile indices in the models and reanalyses. Generally, percentile indices based on daily TX are well represented by the models and reanalyses compared to the observations. For percentile indices based on daily minimum temperature, however, large discrepancies occur particularly between the reanalyses. {\textcopyright} 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.},
author = {Sillmann, J. and Kharin, V. V. and Zwiers, F. W. and Zhang, X. and Bronaugh, D. and Donat, M. G.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3899},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Bias correction,CMIP5,Climate models,Model evaluation,Temperature extremes},
month = {sep},
number = {11},
pages = {3304--3311},
title = {{Evaluating model-simulated variability in temperature extremes using modified percentile indices}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3899},
volume = {34},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Sillmann2017b,
abstract = {Weather and climate extremes are identified as major areas necessitating further progress in climate research and have thus been selected as one of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges. Here, we provide an overview of current challenges and opportunities for scientific progress and cross-community collaboration on the topic of understanding, modeling and predicting extreme events based on an expert workshop organized as part of the implementation of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. In general, the development of an extreme event depends on a favorable initial state, the presence of large-scale drivers, and positive local feedbacks, as well as stochastic processes. We, therefore, elaborate on the scientific challenges related to large-scale drivers and local-to-regional feedback processes leading to extreme events. A better understanding of the drivers and processes will improve the prediction of extremes and will support process-based evaluation of the representation of weather and climate extremes in climate model simulations. Further, we discuss how to address these challenges by focusing on short-duration (less than three days) and long-duration (weeks to months) extreme events, their underlying mechanisms and approaches for their evaluation and prediction.},
author = {Sillmann, Jana and Thorarinsdottir, Thordis and Keenlyside, Noel and Schaller, Nathalie and Alexander, Lisa V. and Hegerl, Gabriele and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Vautard, Robert and Zhang, Xuebin and Zwiers, Francis W.},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003},
issn = {22120947},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
month = {dec},
pages = {65--74},
title = {{Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094717300440},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Silvy2020,
author = {Silvy, Yona and Guilyardi, Eric and Sall{\'{e}}e, Jean-Baptiste and Durack, Paul J},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0878-x},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {1030--1036},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0878-x},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Singh2018,
abstract = {Developing countries share many common challenges in addressing current and future climate risks. A key barrier to managing these risks is the limited availability of accessible, reliable and relevant weather and climate information. Despite continued investments in Earth System Modelling, and the growing provision of climate services across Africa and India, there often remains a mismatch between available information and what is needed to support on-the-ground decision-making. In this paper, we outline the range of currently available information and present examples from Africa and India to demonstrate the challenges in meeting information needs in different contexts. A review of literature supplemented by interviews with experts suggests that externally provided weather and climate information has an important role in building on local knowledge to shape understanding of climate risks and guide decision-making across scales. Moreover, case studies demonstrate that successful decision-making can be achieved with currently available information. However, these successful examples predominantly use daily, weekly and seasonal climate information for decision-making over short time horizons. Despite an increasing volume of global and regional climate model simulations, there are very few clear examples of long-term climate information being used to inform decisions at sub-national scales. We argue that this is largely because the information produced and disseminated is often ill-suited to inform decision-making at the local scale, particularly for farmers, pastoralists and sub-national governments. Even decision-makers involved in long-term planning, such as national government officials, find it difficult to plan using decadal and multi-decadal climate projections because of issues around uncertainty, risk averseness and constraints in justifying funding allocations on prospective risks. Drawing on lessons learnt from recent successes and failures, a framework is proposed to help increase the utility and uptake of both current and future climate information across Africa and India.},
author = {Singh, Chandni and Daron, Joseph and Bazaz, Amir and Ziervogel, Gina and Spear, Dian and Krishnaswamy, Jagdish and Zaroug, Modathir and Kituyi, Evans},
doi = {10.1080/17565529.2017.1318744},
issn = {1756-5529},
journal = {Climate and Development},
month = {jul},
number = {5},
pages = {389--405},
title = {{The utility of weather and climate information for adaptation decision-making: current uses and future prospects in Africa and India}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2017.1318744},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Singh2013a,
abstract = {High temporal and spatial variability of rainfall qualifies India to be highly vulnerable to floods. Recurring floods of various magnitudes play havoc with the lives and property of the people, leading to unplanned development and unchecked environmental degradation, thwarting and retarding the overall development of the country. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze the types and trends in terms of flood events, frequency, number of people killed, injured, missing and economic damage both in space and time on the basis of a nationwide database published by India Meteorological Department, Pune, from 1978 to 2006. Analysis of these long-term data has revealed that 2,443 flood events claimed about 44,991 lives with the average of 1,551 lives each year. In terms of population size, these figures translate into a loss of 1.5 human lives per million of the population. A majority (56 {\%}) of flood fatalities were caused during severe flood events. However, the frequency of these events was just 19 {\%} in comparison with heavy rainfall events (65 {\%}). In spatial context, flood-related fatalities are distributed all over the country with highest fatalities in Uttar Pradesh (17 {\%}), Maharashtra (13 {\%}), and Bihar and Gujarat (10 {\%} each). Most fatalities occurred during the summer season monsoon months of August (30 {\%}) followed by July (29 {\%}) and September (20 {\%}). The country suffered a cumulative flood-related economic loss of about 16 billion US{\$} between 1978 and 2006 and a maximum economic loss of 1.6 billion US{\$} in the year 2000 alone. The study further suggests that both flood events and fatalities have increased in India over a period of time.},
author = {Singh, Omvir and Kumar, Manish},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-013-0781-0},
issn = {1573-0840},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
number = {3},
pages = {1815--1834},
title = {{Flood events, fatalities and damages in India from 1978 to 2006}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0781-0},
volume = {69},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Sinickas2016,
author = {Sinickas, Alexandra and Jamieson, Bruce and Maes, Marc A.},
doi = {10.1080/15732479.2015.1020495},
issn = {1573-2479},
journal = {Structure and Infrastructure Engineering},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {490--498},
title = {{Snow avalanches in western Canada: investigating change in occurrence rates and implications for risk assessment and mitigation}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15732479.2015.1020495},
volume = {12},
year = {2016}
}
@article{doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00045.1,
abstract = { AbstractRecent extreme weather events and their impacts on societies have highlighted the need for timely adaptation to the changing odds of their occurrence. Such measures require appropriate information about likely changes in event frequency and magnitude on relevant spatiotemporal scales. However, to support robust climate information for decision-making, an effective communication between scientists and stakeholders is crucial. In this context, weather event attribution studies are increasingly raising attention beyond academic circles, although the understanding of how to take it beyond academia is still evolving. This paper presents the results of a study that involved in-depth interviews with stakeholders from a range of sectors about potential applications and the general usefulness of event attribution studies. A case study of the hot and dry summer 2012 in southeast Europe is used as a concrete example, with a focus on the applicability of attribution results across sectors. An analysis of the interviews reveals an abundant interest among the interviewed stakeholders and highlights the need for information on the causes and odds of extreme events, in particular on regional scales. From this data key aspects of stakeholder engagement are emerging, which could productively feed back into how probabilistic event attribution studies are designed and communicated to ensure practical relevance and usefulness for the stakeholder community. },
author = {Sippel, Sebastian and Walton, Peter and Otto, Friederike E L},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00045.1},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
number = {3},
pages = {224--237},
title = {{Stakeholder Perspectives on the Attribution of Extreme Weather Events: An Explorative Enquiry}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00045.1},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Sittaro2017,
author = {Sittaro, Fabian and Paquette, Alain and Messier, Christian and Nock, Charles A.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13622},
issn = {13541013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {climate change,eastern North America,forest inventory plots,global warming,range shifts,temperate and boreal forests,tree migration},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {3292--3301},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13622},
volume = {23},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Sivakumar2018,
abstract = {The past few decades, have seen an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes around the world with severe impacts on several socio-economic sectors, especially in the developing world. Climate change impacts have increased due to enhanced greenhouse gas emissions and they undermine the ability of all countries to achieve sustainable development. In September 2015, the Member States of the United Nations adopted the new Sustainable Development Agenda, with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Climate services contribute directly to 11 SDGs through collection of climate data; generation and provision of a wide range of information on past, present and future climate; development of products to improve the understanding of climate and its impacts on natural and human systems; and the application of these data, information and products for decision-making in all socio-economic sectors affected by climate, at the global, regional and local scales. The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) established by the World Climate Conference-3 in 2009, is enabling society to better manage the risks and opportunities arising from climate variability and change, through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice. Climate Services in six socio-economic sectors i.e., Agriculture and Food Security, Disaster Risk Reduction, Health, Water, Energy and Tourism to promote sustainable development have been presented with suitable examples.},
author = {Sivakumar, Mannava V K and Lucio, Filipe},
booktitle = {Bridging Science and Policy Implication for Managing Climate Extremes},
chapter = {Chapter 6},
doi = {10.1142/9789813235663_0006},
editor = {Jung, Hong-Sang and Wang, Bin},
pages = {81--100},
publisher = {World Scientific},
title = {{Climate Services for Sustainable Development}},
url = {https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/9789813235663{\_}0006},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Skelton2017,
abstract = {This paper seeks to understand why climate infor-mation is produced differently from country to country. To do this, we critically examined and compared the social and sci-entific values that shaped the production of three national climate scenarios in the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK. A comparative analysis of documentary materials and expert interviews linked to the climate scenarios was per-formed. Our findings reveal a new typology of use-inspired research in climate science for decision-making: (i) innova-tors, where the advancement of science is the main objective; (ii) consolidators, where knowledge exchanges and networks are prioritised; and (iii) collaborators, where the needs of users are put first and foremost. These different values over what constitutes 'good' science for decision-making are mirrored in the way users were involved in the production process: (i) elicitation, where scientists have privileged decision-making power; (ii) representation, where multiple organisations medi-ate on behalf of individual users; and (iii) participation, where a multitude of users interact with scientists in an equal part-nership. These differences help explain why climate knowledge gains its credibility and legitimacy differently even when the information itself might not be judged as salient and usable. If the push to deliberately co-produce climate knowl-edge is not sensitive to the national civic epistemology at play in each country, scientist–user interactions may fail to deliver more 'usable' climate information.},
author = {Skelton, Maurice and Porter, James J. and Dessai, Suraje and Bresch, David N. and Knutti, Reto},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-017-1155-z},
issn = {1436-3798},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
month = {dec},
number = {8},
pages = {2325--2338},
title = {{The social and scientific values that shape national climate scenarios: a comparison of the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-017-1155-z},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Skliris2020,
author = {Skliris, Nikolaos and Marsh, Robert and Mecking, Jennifer V. and Zika, Jan D},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05261-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {may},
pages = {4971--4989},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Changing water cycle and freshwater transports in the Atlantic Ocean in observations and CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05261-y},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Slater2013a,
abstract = {Permafrost is a characteristic aspect of the terrestrial Arctic and the fate of near-surface permafrost over the next century is likely to exert strong controls on Arctic hydrology and biogeochemistry. Using output fromthe fifth phase of the CoupledModel Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the authors assess its ability to simulate present- day and future permafrost. Permafrost extent diagnosed directly from each climate model's soil temperature is a function of the modeled surface climate as well as the ability of the land surfacemodel to represent permafrost physics. For each CMIP5 model these two effects are separated by using indirect estimators of permafrost driven by climatic indices and compared to permafrost extent directly diagnosed via soil temperatures. Several robust conclusions can be drawn from this analysis. Significant air temperature and snow depth biases exist in some model's climates, which degrade both directly and indirectly diagnosed permafrost conditions. The range of di- rectly calculated present-day (1986–2005) permafrost area is extremely large (;4–25 3 106km2). Several land models contain structural weaknesses that limit their skill in simulating cold region subsurface processes. The sensitivity of future permafrost extent to temperature change over the present-day observed permafrost region averages (1.676 0.7)3 106km2 8C21 but is a function of the spatial and temporal distribution of climate change. Because of sizable differences in future climates for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios, a wide variety of future permafrost states is predicted by 2100. Conservatively, themodels suggest that for RCP4.5, permafrost will retreat from the present-day discontinuous zone. Under RCP8.5, sustainable per- mafrostwill bemost probable only in the Canadian Archipelago, Russian Arctic coast, and east Siberian uplands.},
author = {Slater, Andrew G. and Lawrence, David M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00341.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Arctic,Land surface,Land surface model,Soil temperature},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {5608--5623},
title = {{Diagnosing Present and Future Permafrost from Climate Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00341.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Smale2019,
abstract = {The global ocean has warmed substantially over the past century, with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems1. Concurrent with long-term persistent warming, discrete periods of extreme regional ocean warming (marine heatwaves, MHWs) have increased in frequency2. Here we quantify trends and attributes of MHWs across all ocean basins and examine their biological impacts from species to ecosystems. Multiple regions in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans are particularly vulnerable to MHW intensification, due to the co-existence of high levels of biodiversity, a prevalence of species found at their warm range edges or concurrent non-climatic human impacts. The physical attributes of prominent MHWs varied considerably, but all had deleterious impacts across a range of biological processes and taxa, including critical foundation species (corals, seagrasses and kelps). MHWs, which will probably intensify with anthropogenic climate change3, are rapidly emerging as forceful agents of disturbance with the capacity to restructure entire ecosystems and disrupt the provision of ecological goods and services in coming decades. Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency, but they vary in their manifestation. All events impact ecosystem structure and functioning, with increased risk of negative impacts linked to greater biodiversity, number of species near their thermal limit and additional human impacts.},
author = {Smale, Dan A. and Wernberg, Thomas and Oliver, Eric C. J. and Thomsen, Mads and Harvey, Ben P. and Straub, Sandra C. and Burrows, Michael T. and Alexander, Lisa V. and Benthuysen, Jessica A. and Donat, Markus G. and Feng, Ming and Hobday, Alistair J. and Holbrook, Neil J. and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E. and Scannell, Hillary A. and {Sen Gupta}, Alex and Payne, Ben L. and Moore, Pippa J.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0412-1},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Ecosystem ecology,change ecology,change impacts},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {306--312},
publisher = {Springer US},
title = {{Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0412-1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0412-1},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Smith2015,
author = {Smith, Andrew T. and Nagy, John D.},
doi = {10.1093/jmammal/gyv040},
issn = {0022-2372},
journal = {Journal of Mammalogy},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {394--404},
title = {{Population resilience in an American pika (Ochotona princeps) metapopulation}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/jmammal/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/jmammal/gyv040},
volume = {96},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{Smithetal.2001,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {Smith, J. and Schellnhuber, H-J and Mirza, M. M. and Fankhauser, S. and Leemans, R. and Erda, L and Ogallo, L. and Pittock, B. and Richels, R. and Rosenzweig, C. and Safriel, U. and Tol, R.S.J. and Weyant, J. and Yohe, G.},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
editor = {McCarthy, James J and Canziani, O. F and Leary, N. A and Dokken, D. J and White, K. S},
isbn = {0521807689},
pages = {915--969},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis Contents}},
url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/wg2},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Smith2018,
abstract = {Atmospheric CO2 is on pace to surpass 550 ppm in the next 30–80 years. Many food crops grown under 550 ppm have protein, iron and zinc contents that are reduced by 3–17{\%} compared with current conditions. We analysed the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations on the sufficiency of dietary intake of iron, zinc and protein for the populations of 151 countries using a model of per-capita food availability stratified by age and sex, assuming constant diets and excluding other climate impacts on food production. We estimate that elevated CO2 could cause an additional 175 million people to be zinc deficient and an additional 122 million people to be protein deficient (assuming 2050 population and CO2 projections). For iron, 1.4 billion women of childbearing age and children under 5 are in countries with greater than 20{\%} anaemia prevalence and would lose {\textgreater}4{\%} of dietary iron. Regions at highest risk—South and Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East—require extra precautions to sustain an already tenuous advance towards improved public health.},
author = {Smith, Matthew R. and Myers, Samuel S.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0253-3},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Agriculture,Environmental health},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {834--839},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on global human nutrition}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0253-3},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Smith2018a,
abstract = {Objectives: To examine the association of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) with the occurrence of heat-related incidents and changes in behavioural and matchplay characteristics in men's Grand Slam tennis. Design: On-court calls for trainers, doctors, cooling devices and water, post-match medical consults and matchplay characteristic data were collected from 360 Australian Open matches (first 4 rounds 2014–2016). Methods: Data were referenced against estimated WBGT and categorised into standard zones. Generalised linear models assessed the association of WBGT zone on heat-related medical incidences and matchplay variables. Results: On-court calls for doctor (47{\%} increase per zone, p = 0.001), heat-related events (41{\%}, p = 0.019), cooling devices (53{\%}, p {\textless} 0.001), and post-match heat-related consults (87{\%}, p = 0.014) increased with each rise in estimated WBGT zone. In WBGT's {\textgreater}32 °C and {\textgreater}28 °C, significant increases in heat-related calls (p = 0.019) and calls for cooling devices (p {\textless} 0.001), respectively, were evident. The number of winners (−2.5 ± 0.006{\%} per zone, p {\textless} 0.001) and net approaches (−7.1 ± 0.008{\%}, p {\textless} 0.001) reduced as the estimated WBGT zone increased, while return points won increased (1.75 ± 0.46, p {\textless} 0.001). When matches were adjusted for player quality of the opponent (Elo rating), the number of aces (5 ± 0.02{\%}, p = 0.003) increased with estimated WBGT zone, whilst net approaches decreased (7.6 ± 0.013{\%}, p {\textless} 0.001). Conclusions: Increased estimated WBGT increased total match doctor and trainer consults for heat related-incidents, post-match heat-related consults ({\textgreater}32 °C) and cooling device callouts ({\textgreater}28 °C). However, few matchplay characteristics were noticeably affected, with only reduced net approaches and increased aces evident in higher estimated WBGT environments.},
author = {Smith, Matthew T. and Reid, Machar and Kovalchik, Stephanie and Woods, Tim O. and Duffield, Rob},
doi = {10.1016/j.jsams.2017.08.019},
issn = {18781861},
journal = {Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport},
keywords = {Court sports,Heat illness,Matchplay},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {467--472},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Heat stress incident prevalence and tennis matchplay performance at the Australian Open}},
volume = {21},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{Smith2016,
author = {Smith, Kirk R. and Woodward, Alistair and Lemke, Bruno and Otto, Matthias and Chang, Cindy J. and Mance, Anna A. and Balmes, John and Kjellstrom, Tord},
booktitle = {The Lancet},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31335-6},
issn = {1474547X},
month = {aug},
number = {10045},
pages = {642--644},
publisher = {Lancet Publishing Group},
title = {{The last Summer Olympics? Climate change, health, and work outdoors}},
volume = {388},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Smith2020a,
abstract = {Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied. To address this problem we use downscaled daily climate predictions from seven GCMs to run a continental-scale hydrological model for a process-based representation of mosquito breeding habitat availability. A more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges as water is routed through drainage networks and river corridors serve as year-round transmission foci. The estimated hydro-climatically suitable area for stable malaria transmission is smaller than previous models suggest and shows only a very small increase in state-of-the-art future climate scenarios. However, bigger geographical shifts are observed than with most rainfall threshold models and the pattern of that shift is very different when using a hydrological model to estimate surface water availability for vector breeding.},
author = {Smith, M. W. and Willis, T. and Alfieri, L. and James, W. H. M. and Trigg, M. A. and Yamazaki, D. and Hardy, A. J. and Bisselink, B. and {De Roo}, A. and Macklin, M. G. and Thomas, C. J.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-18239-5},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Ecological epidemiology,Ecology,Environmental health,Hydrology},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {4353},
pmid = {32859908},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18239-5 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18239-5},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Smith2019,
abstract = {Foodborne disease is a major concern in Canada and represents a significant climate change-related threat to public health. Climate variables, including temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme weather events and ocean warming and acidification, are known to exert significant, complicated and interrelated effects along the entire length of the food chain. Foodborne diseases are caused by a range of bacteria, fungi, parasites and viruses, and the prevalence of these diseases is modified by climate change through alterations in the abundance, growth, range and survival of many pathogens, as well as through alterations in human behaviours and in transmission factors such as wildlife vectors. As climate change continues and/or intensifies, it will increase the risk of an adverse effect on food safety in Canada ranging from increased public health burden to the emergence of risks not currently seen in our food chain. Clinical and public health practitioners need to be aware of the existing and emerging risks to respond accordingly.},
author = {Smith, BA and Fazil, A},
doi = {10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a05},
issn = {1481-8531},
journal = {Canada Communicable Disease Report},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {108--113},
publisher = {Infectious Disease and Control Branch (IDPCB) - Public Health Agency of Canada},
title = {{How will climate change impact microbial foodborne disease in Canada?}},
volume = {45},
year = {2019}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/joc.1195,
abstract = {Abstract Trends in the annual number of independent wind events over the Netherlands are studied for the period 1962–2002. The events are selected out of 13 hourly 10 m wind speed records that are part of a high quality dataset of near-surface wind observations at Dutch meteorological stations. Comparisons are made with trends in independent wind events selected from geostrophic wind speed records and reanalysis data. The results for moderate wind events (that occur on average 10 times per year) and strong wind events (that occur on average twice a year) indicate a decrease in storminess over the Netherlands between 5 and 10{\%}/decade. This result is inconsistent with National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research or European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data, which suggest increased storminess during the same 41 year period. Possible explanations are given for the discrepancy between the trends in storminess based on station data and the trends in storminess based on reanalysis data. Evaluation of trends in geostrophic wind, both from station data and reanalysis data, and evaluation of trends in vector-averaged (upscaled) 10 m wind over the Netherlands point towards inhomogeneities in the reanalysis data as the main cause of the discrepancy. We conclude that it is likely that the decrease in storminess observed in Dutch station records of near-surface wind in the past four decades is closer to reality than the increase suggested by the reanalysis data. Copyright {\textcopyright} 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.},
author = {Smits, A and {Klein Tank}, A M G and K{\"{o}}nnen, G P},
doi = {10.1002/joc.1195},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {extratropical storms,trend analysis,wind climate},
month = {aug},
number = {10},
pages = {1331--1344},
title = {{Trends in storminess over the Netherlands, 1962–2002}},
url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.1195 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.1195},
volume = {25},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Soares2019,
abstract = {The African continent faces several challenges and threats: high vulnerability to climate change, the fastest population increase, the lowest degree of electrification and the need for an energy transition towards renewable energies. Solar energy constitutes a viable option for addressing these issues. In a changing climate the efficient implementation of solar capacity should rely on comprehensive information about the solar resource. Here, the newest and highest resolution regional climate simulation results are used to project the future photovoltaic and concentrated solar power potentials for Africa. We show that the high potentials for solar energy will not be reduced much throughout Africa with climate change. However, the PV solar potential is projected to decrease up to about −10{\%} in limited areas of eastern central Africa; increases are also projected to the northwest and southern Africa (up to about +5{\%}). These changes are mostly determined by changes in solar irradiance but in certain areas the warming is a critical factor limiting PV potential.},
author = {Soares, Pedro M M and Brito, Miguel C and Careto, Jo{\~{a}}o A M},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab51a1},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {12},
pages = {124036},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Persistence of the high solar potential in Africa in a changing climate}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab51a1},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@misc{Solaun2019,
abstract = {Research on climate change impacts on renewable energy is becoming increasingly relevant due to the vulnerability of the sector and to the continual development of methodologies and availability of data. Public and private decision-making needs specific research. However, many gaps still exist in certain geographical regions and technologies. Providing economic estimates with a value chain perspective are also missing from most papers. This paper addresses the most relevant studies that project quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on solar, wind, hydro and other renewable generation technologies. Summary tables of impacts and projections are provided so that researchers, governments and the private sector may have an accurate view of the state-of-the-art on this topic.},
author = {Solaun, Kepa and Cerd{\'{a}}, Emilio},
booktitle = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2019.109415},
issn = {18790690},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate change adaptation,Energy economics,Renewable energy},
month = {dec},
pages = {109415},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Climate change impacts on renewable energy generation. A review of quantitative projections}},
volume = {116},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Solman2013,
abstract = {This review summarizes the progress achieved on regional climate modeling activities over South America since the early efforts at the beginning of the 2000s until now. During the last 10 years, simulations with regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for several purposes over the region. Early efforts were mainly focused on sensitivity studies to both physical mechanisms and technical aspects of RCMs. The last developments were focused mainly on providing high-resolution information on regional climate change. This paper describes the most outstanding contributions from the isolated efforts to the ongoing coordinated RCM activities in the framework of the CORDEX initiative, which represents a major endeavor to produce ensemble climate change projections at regional scales and allows exploring the associated range of uncertainties. The remaining challenges in modeling South American climate features are also discussed.},
author = {Solman, Silvina A.},
doi = {10.1155/2013/504357},
issn = {1687-9309},
journal = {Advances in Meteorology},
pages = {504357},
title = {{Regional Climate Modeling over South America: A Review}},
url = {http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2013/504357/},
volume = {2013},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Somot2018,
author = {Somot, Samuel and Ruti, Paolo and Ahrens, Bodo and Coppola, Erika and Jord{\`{a}}, Gabriel and Sannino, Gianmaria and Solmon, Fabien},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4325-x},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3},
pages = {771--777},
title = {{Editorial for the Med-CORDEX special issue}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4325-x},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Son2020,
abstract = {From January through March 2017, a series of extreme precipitation events occurred in coastal Peru, causing severe floods with hundreds of human casualties and billions of dollars in economic losses. The extreme precipitation was a result of unusually strong recurrent patterns of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including extremely warm coastal sea surface temperatures (SST) and weakened trade winds. These climatic features and their causal relationship with the Peruvian precipitation were examined. Diagnostic analysis and model experiments suggest that an atmospheric forcing in early 2017, which was moderately linked to the Trans-Ni{\~{n}}o Index (TNI), initiated the local SST warming along coastal Peru that later expanded to the equator. In January 2017, soil moisture was increased by an unusual expansion of Amazonian rainfall. By March, localized and robust SST warming provided positive feedback to the weakening of the trade winds, leading to increased onshore wind and a subsequent enhancement in rainfall. The analysis points to a tendency towards more frequent and stronger variations in the water vapor flux convergence along the equator, which is associated with the increased precipitation in coastal Peru.},
author = {Son, Rackhun and Wang, S.-Y. Simon and Tseng, Wan-Ling and {Barreto Schuler}, Christian W. and Becker, Emily and Yoon, Jin-Ho},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-05038-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {935--945},
title = {{Climate diagnostics of the extreme floods in Peru during early 2017}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-05038-y},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Song2017a,
abstract = {Large parts of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls for the past few winters, which have been linked to rapid decline of Arctic sea ice. Although the role of reduction in Arctic sea ice in recent cold and snowy winters is still a matter of debate, there is considerable interest in determining whether such an emerging climate feedback will persist into the future in a warming environment. Here we show that increased winter snowfall would be a robust feature throughout the 21st century in the northeastern Europe, central and northern Asia and northern North America as projected by current-day climate model simulations under the medium mitigation scenario. We argue that the increased winter snowfall in these regions during the 21st century is due primarily to the diminishing autumn Arctic sea ice (largely externally forced). Variability of the winter Arctic Oscillation (dominant mode of natural variability in the Northern Hemisphere), in contrast, has little contribution to the increased winter snowfall. This is evident in not only the multi-model ensemble mean, but also each individual model (not model-dependent). Our findings reinforce suggestions that a strong sea ice-snowfall feedback might have emerged, and would be enhanced in coming decades, increasing the chance of heavy snowfall events in northern high-latitude continents.},
author = {Song, Mirong and Liu, Jiping},
doi = {10.1007/s13131-017-1021-3},
issn = {1869-1099},
journal = {Acta Oceanologica Sinica},
number = {8},
pages = {34--41},
title = {{The role of diminishing Arctic sea ice in increased winter snowfall over northern high-latitude continents in a warming environment}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-017-1021-3},
volume = {36},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Soret_2019,
abstract = {Both renewable energy supply and electricity demand are strongly influenced by meteorological conditions and their evolution over time in terms of climate variability and climate change. However, knowledge of power output and demand forecasting beyond a few days remains poor. Current methodologies assume that long-term resource availability is constant, ignoring the fact that future wind resources could be significantly different from the past wind energy conditions. Such uncertainties create risks that affect investment in wind energy projects at the operational stage where energy yields affect cash flow and the balance of the grid. Here we assess whether sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions (S2S) can skilfully predict wind speed in Europe. To illustrate S2S potential applications, two periods with an unusual climate behaviour affecting the energy market will be presented. We find that wind speed forecasted using S2S exhibits predictability some weeks and months in advance in important regions for the energy sector such as the North Sea. If S2S are incorporated into planning activities for energy traders, energy producers, plant operators, plant investors, they could help improve management climate variability related risks.},
author = {Soret, A and Torralba, V and Cortesi, N and Christel, I and Palma, Ll and Manrique-Su{\~{n}}{\'{e}}n, A and Lled{\'{o}}, Ll and Gonz{\'{a}}lez-Reviriego, N and Doblas-Reyes, F J},
doi = {10.1088/1742-6596/1222/1/012009},
journal = {Journal of Physics: Conference Series},
pages = {12009},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for wind energy forecasting}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1742-6596{\%}2F1222{\%}2F1{\%}2F012009},
volume = {1222},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sorg2014,
author = {Sorg, Annina and Huss, Matthias and Rohrer, Mario and Stoffel, Markus},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104018},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {104018},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{The days of plenty might soon be over in glacierized Central Asian catchments}},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Spandre2019a,
author = {Spandre, Pierre and Fran{\c{c}}ois, Hugues and Verfaillie, Deborah and Pons, Marc and Vernay, Matthieu and Lafaysse, Matthieu and George, Emmanuelle and Morin, Samuel},
doi = {10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1325--1347},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/1325/2019/},
volume = {13},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Spickett2011,
abstract = {The objectives of the study were to: consider the potential health impacts in Australia and the region arising from changes in air quality occurring as a result of climate change, identify vulnerable groups and potential adaptation measures and discuss the implications for policy. The authors provide an overview of international and national information on the potential health impacts of air pollutants that would most likely be affected by climate change and a discussion of the policy implications. Climate change is likely to have an impact on levels of ozone and possibly particulates, both of which are associated with increased mortality and a range of respiratory and cardiovascular health effects. One of the implications is therefore a possible increase in adverse health effects due to air pollutants. Regional health impact assessments of climate change should address the issue of air quality, consider current coping capacity, and determine the need for adaptation, particularly for vulnerable groups. Im...},
author = {Spickett, Jeff T. and Brown, H.L. and Rumchev, Krassi},
doi = {10.1177/1010539511398114},
issn = {1010-5395},
journal = {Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health},
keywords = {air pollution,climate change,health impact assessment},
month = {mar},
number = {2{\_}suppl},
pages = {37S--45S},
publisher = {SAGE PublicationsSage CA: Los Angeles, CA},
title = {{Climate Change and Air Quality: The Potential Impact on Health}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1010539511398114},
volume = {23},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Spinoni2018b,
author = {Spinoni, Jonathan and Vogt, J{\"{u}}rgen V. and Naumann, Gustavo and Barbosa, Paulo and Dosio, Alessandro},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5291},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {1718--1736},
title = {{Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5291},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Spinoni2014,
abstract = {ABSTRACT In the context of climate change characterized by rising temperature and more extreme precipitation regimes, drought is one of the most relevant natural disasters. This paper presents maps of global drought frequency, duration, and severity for the periods 1951?1970, 1971?1990, and 1991?2010, to give an overview of the respective drought hot spots. Drought frequency is defined as the number of drought events occurred, drought duration as the number of months in drought conditions, and drought severity as the sum of the integral area below zero of each event. Because drought is mainly driven by rainfall deficits, we chose the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as the base indicator to derive drought-related quantities. SPI-12 has been calculated on a monthly basis using a Gamma distribution fitted to a 60-year baseline period (1951?2010). Global grids (0.5°???0.5°) of the Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0 dataset provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) have been used as precipitation data input. The regions most exposed to prolonged and severe droughts during 1951?1970 were the Central United States, the Argentinian Pampas, Russia, and Central Australia; during 1971?1990 they were Southern Chile, the Sahel, and Siberia; during 1991?2010 they were the Amazon Forest, the Congo River Basin, Mongolia, North Eastern China, and Borneo. A linear trend analysis between 1951 and 2010 shows a small global increase in each drought component, but drought frequency decreased in the Northern Hemisphere. The increase in drought frequency, duration, and severity is found to be significant in Africa, Eastern Asia, Mediterranean region, and Southern Australia, while the Americas and Russia show a decrease in each drought component.},
author = {Spinoni, Jonathan and Naumann, Gustavo and Carrao, Hugo and Barbosa, Paulo and Vogt, J{\"{u}}rgen},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3875},
file = {::},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {SPI,accepted 23 october 2013,climate change,drought,precipitation,received 7 june 2013,revised 21 october 2013,spi,trends,world},
month = {jun},
number = {8},
pages = {2792--2804},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951–2010}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3875 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3875},
volume = {34},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Spinoni2019c,
abstract = {Study region This study has three spatial scales: global (0.5°), macro-regional, and country scale. The database of drought events has specific entries for each macro-region and country. Study focus We constructed a database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016, now hosted by the Global Drought Observatory of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. Events were detected at macro-regional and country scale based on the separate analysis of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at different accumulation scales (from 3 to 72 months), using as input the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time Series datasets. The database includes approximately 4800 events based on SPEI-3 and 4500 based on SPI-3. Each event is described by its start and end date, duration, intensity, severity, peak, average and maximum area in drought, and a special score to classify 52 mega-droughts. New hydrological insights for the region under study We derived trends in drought frequency and severity, separately for SPI and SPEI at a 12-month accumulation scale, which is usually related to hydrological droughts. Results show several drought hotspots in the last decades: Amazonia, southern South America, the Mediterranean region, most of Africa, north-eastern China and, to a lesser extent, central Asia and southern Australia. Over North America, central Europe, central Asia, and Australia, the recent progressive temperature increase outbalanced the increase in precipitation causing more frequent and severe droughts.},
author = {Spinoni, Jonathan and Barbosa, Paulo and {De Jager}, Alfred and McCormick, Niall and Naumann, Gustavo and Vogt, J{\"{u}}rgen V. and Magni, Diego and Masante, Dario and Mazzeschi, Marco},
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100593},
issn = {22145818},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
keywords = {Climate change,Drought events,Global database,Meteorological drought,SPEI,SPI},
month = {apr},
pages = {100593},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581818303136 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214581818303136},
volume = {22},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Spinoni2019,
abstract = {Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, {\~{}}15{\%} of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger ({\~{}}47{\%} under RCP4.5, {\~{}}49{\%} under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.},
author = {Spinoni, Jonathan and Barbosa, Paulo and Bucchignani, Edoardo and Cassano, John and Cavazos, Tereza and Christensen, Jens H. and Christensen, Ole B. and Coppola, Erika and Evans, Jason and Geyer, Beate and Giorgi, Filippo and Hadjinicolaou, Panos and Jacob, Daniela and Katzfey, Jack and Koenigk, Torben and Laprise, Ren{\'{e}} and Lennard, Christopher J. and Kurnaz, M. Levent and Li, Delei and Llopart, Marta and McCormick, Niall and Naumann, Gustavo and Nikulin, Grigory and Ozturk, Tugba and Panitz, Hans-Juergen and {Porfirio da Rocha}, Rosmeri and Rockel, Burkhardt and Solman, Silvina A. and Syktus, Jozef and Tangang, Fredolin and Teichmann, Claas and Vautard, Robert and Vogt, J{\"{u}}rgen V. and Winger, Katja and Zittis, George and Dosio, Alessandro},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {3635--3661},
title = {{Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Spinoni2015,
abstract = {ABSTRACT The global increase of temperature, together with more frequent severe winters and summer heat waves may lead to a change in energy consumption and agricultural production. Cooling, heating, and growing degree-days (CDD, HDD, and GDD), respectively, are used to quantify the energy needed to condition or heat buildings, and to study the growing season. Using a new dataset made of 4023 daily TN–TM–TX series for the period 2001–2011 and 3897 monthly TM homogenized series for the period 1951–2011, we computed CDD, HDD, GDD, and Winkler Index (WI) for Europe. We developed a model that correlates degree-days calculated with daily TN–TM–TX data with degree-days obtained by monthly TM data, in the overlapping period 2001–2011. A set of parameters for each station was then applied to the corresponding 1951–2011 monthly records. We interpolated the parameters and the reconstructed degree-day series onto a European 0.25° × 0.25° grid: with these gridded parameters, one can estimate the degree-days for any European location if only monthly TM is available. We present maps of HDD, CDD, GDD, and WI for the period 1951–2010. To validate them, we run a comparison in the Carpathian area using an independent dataset (from the CARPATCLIM project). The regional records show high correlations, especially for HDD (r {\textgreater} 0.99) and WI (r {\textgreater} 0.98). Subsequently, we performed a linear trend analysis on European and regional basis. HDD showed a significant decrease almost everywhere in Europe, whereas CDD, GDD, and WI showed a significant increase in particular in the last 30 years in the Mediterranean region. Moreover, WI indicated that new areas in France and central Europe became suitable for grape cultivation in the last decades.},
author = {Spinoni, J and Vogt, J and Barbosa, P},
doi = {10.1002/joc.3959},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {25--36},
title = {{European degree-day climatologies and trends for the period 1951–2011}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3959},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Spinoni2018,
abstract = {ABSTRACT During the last decades, the effects of global warming have become apparent also in Europe, causing relevant impacts in many sectors. Under projected future global warming, such a tendency can be expected to persist until the end of this century and beyond. Identifying which climate-related impacts are likely to increase, and by how much, is an important element of any effective strategy for managing future climate risks. This study investigates whether energy demand for cooling and heating buildings can be expected to increase or decrease under climate change. Two indicators of weather-related energy consumption for heating and cooling buildings are considered: heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD). The evolution of these indicators has been analysed based on 11 high-resolution bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX simulations for two emission representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Both indicators have been validated over the period 1981–2010 using an independent data set that contains more than 4000 station data, showing very high correlation over most of Europe. Trends of HDD and CDD from 1981 to 2100, together with their uncertainties, are analysed. For both RCPs, all simulations project a significant decrease for HDD, especially over Scandinavia and European Russia, and an increase of CDD which peaks over the Mediterranean region and the Balkans. Overall, degree-day trends do not show remarkable differences if population weighting is applied. If a constant population scenario is considered, the decrease in HDD will outbalance the increase in CDD in the 21st century over most of Europe. Thus the related energy demand (expressed as Energy Degree-days, EDD) is expected to decrease. If, however, population projections over the 21st century are included in the calculations, it is shown that despite the persisting warming, EDD will increase over northern Europe, the Baltic countries, Great Britain, Ireland, Benelux, the Alps, Spain, and Cyprus, resulting in an overall increase in EDD over Europe.},
author = {Spinoni, Jonathan and Vogt, J{\"{u}}rgen V and Barbosa, Paulo and Dosio, Alessandro and McCormick, Niall and Bigano, Andrea and F{\"{u}}ssel, Hans-Martin},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5362},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {apr},
number = {S1},
pages = {e191--e208},
title = {{Changes of heating and cooling degree-days in Europe from 1981 to 2100}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5362},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Staiger2019,
abstract = {Application of thermal indices has become very popular over the last three decades. It is mostly aimed at urban areas and is also used in weather forecasting, especially for heat health warning systems. Recent studies also show the relevance of thermal indices and their justification for thermal perception. Only twelve out of 165 indices of human thermal perception are classified to be principally suitable for the human biometeorological evaluation of climate for urban and regional planning: this requests that the thermal indices provide an equivalent air temperature of an isothermal reference with minor wind velocity. Furthermore, thermal indices must be traceable to complete human energy budget models consisting of both a controlled passive system (heat transfer between body and environment) and a controlling active system, which provides a positive feedback on temperature deviations from neutral conditions of the body core and skin as it is the case in nature. Seven out of the twelve indices are fully suitable, of which three overlap with the others. Accordingly, the following four indices were selected as appropriate: Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), Perceived Temperature (PTJ), Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), and rational Standard Effective Temperature (SET*).},
author = {Staiger, Henning and Laschewski, Gudrun and Matzarakis, Andreas},
doi = {10.3390/atmos10010018},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {18},
title = {{Selection of Appropriate Thermal Indices for Applications in Human Biometeorological Studies}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/1/18},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Stathers2013,
author = {Stathers, Tanya and Lamboll, Richard and Mvumi, Brighton M.},
doi = {10.1007/s12571-013-0262-z},
issn = {1876-4517},
journal = {Food Security},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {361--392},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Postharvest agriculture in changing climates: its importance to African smallholder farmers}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12571-013-0262-z},
volume = {5},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Steiger2019,
annote = {doi: 10.1080/13683500.2017.1410110},
author = {Steiger, Robert and Scott, Daniel and Abegg, Bruno and Pons, Marc and Aall, Carlo},
doi = {10.1080/13683500.2017.1410110},
issn = {1368-3500},
journal = {Current Issues in Tourism},
month = {jul},
number = {11},
pages = {1343--1379},
publisher = {Routledge},
title = {{A critical review of climate change risk for ski tourism}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2017.1410110},
volume = {22},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Steiger2020,
abstract = {Climate change risk has gained considerable attention within the ski industry and its investors. Several past studies have overlooked the adaptive capacity of snowmaking and within-season demand variation and therefore overestimated climate change impacts. This study of the Austrian ski market (208 ski areas) including snowmaking found impacts are substantial and spatially highly differentiated, but nonetheless manageable (season length losses of 10–16{\%}) for the majority of ski areas until the 2050s under a high emissions pathway (RCP 8.5) or even the 2080s in a low emission pathway (RCP 4.5). The economic impacts of reduced operations are largely concentrated in regions less dependent on tourism. Preserving this sector in high-risk areas can be considered maladaptive, but may be important to maintain demand. A sustainable end-of-century future for a high proportion of Austria's ski areas is dependent on achieving the low-emission future set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.},
author = {Steiger, Robert and Scott, Daniel},
doi = {10.1016/j.tourman.2019.104032},
issn = {02615177},
journal = {Tourism Management},
keywords = {Adaptation,Climate change,Destination reputation,Economic impacts,Mountain communities,Ski tourism,Tourism planning},
month = {apr},
pages = {104032},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Ski tourism in a warmer world: Increased adaptation and regional economic impacts in Austria}},
volume = {77},
year = {2020}
}
@techreport{Steinberg2018,
address = {CA, USA},
author = {Steinberg, Nik and Mazzacurati, Emile and Turner, Josh and Gannon, Colin and Dickinson, Robert and Snyder, Mark and Trasher, Bridget},
pages = {74},
publisher = {California Natural Resources Agency},
series = {CCCA4-CNRA-2018-012},
title = {{Preparing Public Health Officials for Climate Change: A Decision Support Tool. A report for California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment}},
url = {https://climateassessment.ca.gov/techreports/public-health.html},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Stennett-Brown2017,
abstract = {The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to investigate future projections of daily minimum and maximum temperature extremes for 45 stations and rainfall extremes for 39 stations across the Caribbean and neighbouring regions. Models show good skill in reproducing the monthly climatology of the mean daily temperatures and the frequencies of warm days, warm nights, cool days and cool nights between 1961 and 2001. Models for rainfall exhibit lower skill but generally capture the monthly climatology of mean daily rainfall and the spatial distribution of the mean annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) and mean annual count of days with daily rainfall above 10 mm (R10). Future projections suggest an increase (decrease) in warm (cool) days and nights by 2071–2099 under the A2 and B2 scenarios relative to 1961–1990. An increase in CDD is suggested for most stations except some eastern Caribbean stations and Bahamas. Decreases in RX1 (monthly maximum 1‐day precipitation), R10 and R95p (annual total rainfall above the 95th percentile) are also suggested for some northern Caribbean locations and Belize under the A2 scenario, compared to a mixture of increases and decreases for the eastern Caribbean. Atmospheric predictors used in SDSM correlate well with known oceanic and atmospheric drivers of Caribbean climate, e.g. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on a seasonal timescale. Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the Caribbean low level jet appear to have significant influence on Caribbean temperature and rainfall extremes.},
author = {Stennett-Brown, Roxann K. and Jones, Jhordanne J. P. and Stephenson, Tannecia S. and Taylor, Michael A.},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5126},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Caribbean,extremes,rainfall,statistical downscaling,temperature},
number = {14},
pages = {4828--4845},
title = {{Future Caribbean temperature and rainfall extremes from statistical downscaling}},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Steynor2020,
annote = {doi: 10.1080/02533952.2020.1853961},
author = {Steynor, Anna and Lee, Jessica and Davison, Amy},
doi = {10.1080/02533952.2020.1853961},
issn = {0253-3952},
journal = {Social Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {3},
pages = {414--433},
publisher = {Routledge},
title = {{Transdisciplinary co-production of climate services: a focus on process}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02533952.2020.1853961},
volume = {46},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Stinson2016,
abstract = {Significant changes in plant phenology and flower production are predicted over the next century, but we know relatively little about geographic patterns of this response in many species, even those that potentially impact human wellbeing. We tested for variation in flowering responses of the allergenic plant, Ambrosia artemisiifolia (common ragweed). We grew plants originating from three latitudes in the Northeastern USA at experimental levels of CO2 (400, 600, and 800 {\{}$\backslash$textmu{\}}L L−1). We hypothesized that northern ecotypes adapted to shorter growing seasons would flower earlier than their southern counterparts, and thus disproportionately allocate carbon gains from CO2 to reproduction. As predicted, latitude of origin and carbon dioxide level significantly influenced the timing and magnitude of flowering. Reproductive onset occurred earlier with increasing latitude, with concurrent increases in the number of flowers produced. Elevated carbon dioxide resulted in earlier reproductive onset in all ecotypes, which was significantly more pronounced in the northern populations. We interpret our findings as evidence for ecotypic variation in ragweed flowering time, as well in responses to CO2. Thus, the ecological and human health implications of common ragweed's response to global change are likely to depend on latitude. We conclude that increased flower production, duration, and possibly pollen output, can be expected in Northeastern United States with rising levels of CO2. The effects are likely, however, to be most significant in northern parts of the region.},
author = {Stinson, Kristina A and Albertine, Jennifer M and Hancock, Laura M S and Seidler, Tristram G and Rogers, Christine A},
doi = {10.1007/s00442-016-3670-x},
issn = {1432-1939},
journal = {Oecologia},
month = {oct},
number = {2},
pages = {587--594},
title = {{Northern ragweed ecotypes flower earlier and longer in response to elevated CO2: what are you sneezing at?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-016-3670-x},
volume = {182},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Stoffel2018,
abstract = {January 2018 was an unusually warm and wet month across the Western Alps, with widespread landslides at low elevations and massive snowfall higher up. This extreme month yields lessons for how mountain communities can prepare for a warmer future.},
author = {Stoffel, Markus and Corona, Christophe},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-018-0177-6},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {458--460},
title = {{Future winters glimpsed in the Alps}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0177-6},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Stoffel2012,
author = {Stoffel, Markus and Huggel, Christian},
doi = {10.1177/0309133312441010},
issn = {0309-1333},
journal = {Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {421--439},
title = {{Effects of climate change on mass movements in mountain environments}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0309133312441010},
volume = {36},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Stoffel2014a,
author = {Stoffel, Markus and Mendlik, Thomas and Schneuwly-Bollschweiler, Michelle and Gobiet, Andreas},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0993-z},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {141--155},
title = {{Possible impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity in the Swiss Alps}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-0993-z},
volume = {122},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Stoffel2011,
author = {Stoffel, Markus and Bollschweiler, Michelle and Beniston, Martin},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0036-6},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {mar},
number = {1-2},
pages = {263--280},
title = {{Rainfall characteristics for periglacial debris flows in the Swiss Alps: past incidences – potential future evolutions}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0036-6},
volume = {105},
year = {2011}
}
@article{w12030813,
abstract = {This study investigated the temporal occurrence of dry conditions in the seven climatic sub-regions of Vietnam during the 1980–2017 period. This assessment was performed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1 to 24 months timescales. Results show that the main periods of extreme drought occurred simultaneously throughout the country in 1992–1993 and 2003–2004, except for 2015–2016, when it was not identified in the southern region. In addition, a slight temporal lag was identified latitudinally (north–south) at the beginning of dry conditions, revealing the largest difference between the northern and southern regions. A positive trend in the time series of both indices (SPEI and SPI) prevailed in all sub-regions, with the SPEI minus SPI difference always being negative, suggesting the importance of temperature and evapotranspiration for this trend. Further detailed analyses were then performed using SPEI at 1-month and 12-months timescales for all climate sub-regions, as well as the main indicators to characterize duration and severity. Results show that the number of drought episodes did not vary much between regions, but they did vary in duration and severity at the annual scale. Moreover, changes in the soil root zone are largely associated with dry and wet conditions not only from season to season, but also in longer accumulation periods and more strongly in the northern regions of Vietnam. Indeed, a study of the most severe drought episodes also revealed the occurrence of negative anomalies of the root-soil moisture in the subsequent four or more months. Dynamic atmospheric conditions associated with the peak of most severe drought episodes show the crucial role of subsidence of dry air in the middle and high atmosphere, which prevents convection in the lower troposphere. Finally, the linkages between drought conditions in Vietnam and large-scale atmospheric and oceanic teleconnection patterns were revealed to be quite different among northern and southern sub-regions. During the positive phase of El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), drought episodes at different timescales were identified in the southern climate sub-regions, while the negative phase was associated with drought conditions in the northern regions.},
author = {Stojanovic, Milica and Liberato, Margarida L.R. and Sor{\'{i}}, Rogert and V{\'{a}}zquez, Marta and Phan-Van, Tan and Duongvan, Hieu and {Hoang Cong}, Tin and Nguyen, Phuong N B and Nieto, Raquel and Gimeno, Luis},
doi = {10.3390/w12030813},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {813},
title = {{Trends and Extremes of Drought Episodes in Vietnam Sub-Regions during 1980–2017 at Different Timescales}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/3/813},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1753,
abstract = { Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production. },
author = {Stone, Roger C and Meinke, Holger},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2005.1753},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
number = {1463},
pages = {2109--2124},
title = {{Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2005.1753},
volume = {360},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Storkey2014,
abstract = {Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an invasive weed in Europe with highly allergenic pollen. Populations are currently well established and cause significant health problems in the French Rh{\^{o}}ne valley, Austria, Hungary and Croatia but transient or casual introduced populations are also found in more Northern and Eastern European countries. A process-based model of weed growth, competition and population dynamics was used to predict the future potential for range expansion of A.artemisiifolia under climate change scenarios. The model predicted a northward shift in the available climatic niche for populations to establish and persist, creating a risk of increased health problems in countries including the UK and Denmark. This was accompanied by an increase in relative pollen production at the northern edge of its range. The southern European limit for A.artemisiifolia was not expected to change; populations continued to be limited by drought stress in Spain and Southern Italy. The process-based approach to modelling the impact of climate change on plant populations has the advantage over correlative species distribution models of being able to capture interactions of climate, land use and plant competition at the local scale. However, for this potential to be fully realised, additional empirical data are required on competitive dynamics of A.artemisiifolia in different crops and ruderal plant communities and its capacity to adapt to local conditions.},
author = {Storkey, Jonathan and Stratonovitch, Pierre and Chapman, Daniel S. and Vidotto, Francesco and Semenov, Mikhail A.},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0088156},
editor = {H{\'{e}}rault, Bruno},
isbn = {1932-6203},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {e88156},
pmid = {24533071},
title = {{A Process-Based Approach to Predicting the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of an Invasive Allergenic Plant in Europe}},
url = {https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088156},
volume = {9},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Storlazzi2018,
abstract = {Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.},
author = {Storlazzi, Curt D. and Gingerich, Stephen B. and van Dongeren, Ap and Cheriton, Olivia M. and Swarzenski, Peter W. and Quataert, Ellen and Voss, Clifford I. and Field, Donald W. and Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian and Piniak, Greg A. and McCall, Robert},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aap9741},
isbn = {1573-8221 (Electronic)$\backslash$r0007-4888 (Linking)},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {eaap9741},
pmid = {29707635},
title = {{Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding}},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aap9741},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Storlazzi2015,
abstract = {Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world's low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands' shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands' shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought.},
author = {Storlazzi, Curt D. and Elias, Edwin P.L. and Berkowitz, Paul},
doi = {10.1038/srep14546},
file = {::},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {14546},
pmid = {26403195},
title = {{Many Atolls May be Uninhabitable Within Decades Due to Climate Change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep14546},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Stott2016,
abstract = {Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.},
author = {Stott, Peter A. and Christidis, Nikolaos and Otto, Friederike E. L. and Sun, Ying and Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Vautard, Robert and von Storch, Hans and Walton, Peter and Yiou, Pascal and Zwiers, Francis W.},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.380},
isbn = {978-94-007-6691-4},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {23--41},
pmid = {26877771},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.380},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Stramma2012,
abstract = {Climate model predictions 1,2 and observations 3,4 reveal regional declines in oceanic dissolved oxygen, which are probably influenced by global warming 5. Studies indicate ongoing dissolved oxygen depletion and vertical expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the tropical northeast Atlantic Ocean 6,7. OMZ shoaling may restrict the usable habitat of billfishes and tunas to a narrow surface layer. We report a decrease in the upper ocean layer exceeding 3.5mll ∼'1 dissolved oxygen at a rate of ≤m Yr -1 in the tropical northeast Atlantic (0-25 °N, 12-30 °W), amounting to an annual habitat loss of ∼1/45.95×10 13 m 3, or 15{\%} for the period 1960-2010. Habitat compression and associated potential habitat loss was validated using electronic tagging data from 47 blue marlin. This phenomenon increases vulnerability to surface fishing gear for billfishes and tunas 8,9, and may be associated with a 10-50{\%} worldwide decline of pelagic predator diversity. Further expansion of the Atlantic OMZ along with overfishing may threaten the sustainability of these valuable pelagic fisheries and marine ecosystems. {\textcopyright} 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.},
author = {Stramma, Lothar and Prince, Eric D. and Schmidtko, Sunke and Luo, Jiangang and Hoolihan, John P. and Visbeck, Martin and Wallace, Douglas W.R. and Brandt, Peter and K{\"{o}}rtzinger, Arne},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1304},
issn = {1758678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {33--37},
title = {{Expansion of oxygen minimum zones may reduce available habitat for tropical pelagic fishes}},
volume = {2},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Street2016,
abstract = {The European Commission established an ad hoc Expert Group to develop a framework for action towards growing a strong and flourishing climate service sector across Europe. The growth of this sector is seen as essential to meeting the challenges associated with building resilience and sustainability across Europe and in member states, and for enhancing their capacities to deliver climate services in a global market. The resulting research and innovation roadmap articulates an agenda and shared approach that are based on building on enhancing existing investments, focusing on solution-oriented activities and specific actions that are using Horizon 2020 (and other funding programmes) as a bridge between users and the science. This short communication provides a personal overview by one of the members of the Expert Group on the thinking that guided the development of the Roadmap for climate services and provides insights on how it is being taken forward.},
author = {Street, Roger B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2015.12.001},
isbn = {9789279443411},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {mar},
pages = {2--5},
title = {{Towards a leading role on climate services in Europe: A research and innovation roadmap}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880715300157},
volume = {1},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Street2019,
abstract = {In January 2018, three leading European initiatives on climate services (CS) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiated a discussion on how the DRR community could be best served by new and emerging CS. The aim was to identify challenges and opportunities for delivery of effective operational disaster risk management and communication informed by an understanding of future climate risks. The resulting discussion engaged experts from civil protection, health, insurance, engineering and the climate service community. Discussions and subsequent reflections recognised that CS can strengthen all phases of the DRR cycle and that there are lessons to learn from experience that could enhance and demonstrate the value of CS supporting the DRR community. For this to happen, however, the supporting information should be relevant, accessible, legitimate and credible and engage both service supply and demand sides. It was also agreed that there was need for identifiable and credible champions recognised as providing leadership and focal points for the development, delivery and evaluation of CS supporting DRR. This paper summarises the identified key challenges (e.g. disconnection between CS and DRR; accessibility of relevant and quality-controlled information; understanding of information needs; and understanding the role of CS and its link to the DRR planning cycle). It also suggests taking advantage of the unique opportunities as a result of the increased coherence and mutual reinforcement across the post-2015 international agendas and the increasing recognition that links between public health and DRR can provide impetus and a focus for developing CS that support DRR.},
author = {Street, R.B. and Buontempo, C and Mysiak, J and Karali, E and Pulqu{\'{e}}rio, M and Murray, V and Swart, R},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.12.001},
issn = {22124209},
journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
keywords = {Climate services,DRR decision-support,Post-2015 agenda},
month = {mar},
pages = {28--33},
title = {{How could climate services support disaster risk reduction in the 21st century}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212420918309373},
volume = {34},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Streletskiy2019,
author = {Streletskiy, Dmitry A and Suter, Luis J and Shiklomanov, Nikolay I and Porfiriev, Boris N and Eliseev, Dmitry O},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {025003},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/14/i=2/a=025003?key=crossref.01c22036172ffc7d6ac7090be6c20a90},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Stroeve2014,
author = {Stroeve, J. C. and Markus, T. and Boisvert, L. and Miller, J. and Barrett, A.},
doi = {10.1002/2013GL058951},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Arctic,sea ice},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1216--1225},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Changes in Arctic melt season and implications for sea ice loss}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013GL058951},
volume = {41},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Stroeve2018,
abstract = {The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. In this review, we examine this ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons. Our analysis is based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and a literature review. We find that relative to the 1981-2010 reference period, recent anomalies in spring and winter sea ice coverage have been more significant than any observed drop in summer sea ice extent (SIE) throughout the satellite period. For example, the SIE in May and November 2016 was almost four standard deviations below the reference SIE in these months. Decadal ice loss during winter months has accelerated from -2.4 {\%}/decade from 1979 to 1999 to -3.4{\%}/decade from 2000 onwards. We also examine regional ice loss and find that for any given region, the seasonal ice loss is larger the closer that region is to the seasonal outer edge of the ice cover. Finally, across all months, we identify a robust linear relationship between pan-Arctic SIE and total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The annual cycle of Arctic sea ice loss per ton of CO2 emissions ranges from slightly above 1 m2 throughout winter to more than 3 m2 throughout summer. Based on a linear extrapolation of these trends, we find the Arctic Ocean will become sea-ice free throughout August and September for an additional 800 ±300 Gt of CO2 emissions, while it becomes ice free from July to October for an additional 1400 ±300 Gt of CO2 emissions.},
author = {Stroeve, Julienne C. and Notz, Dirk},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aade56},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Arctic,climate change,climate modeling,satellite observations,sea ice},
month = {sep},
number = {10},
pages = {103001},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Stuivenvolt-Allen2019,
abstract = {Anomalously cold winters with extreme storms strain natural gas (NG) markets due to heightened demand for heating and electricity generation. While extended weather forecasting has become an indicator for NG management, seasonal (2-3 month) prediction could mitigate the impact of extreme winters on the NG market for consumers and industry. Interrelated climate patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation anomalies exhibit characteristics useful for developing effective seasonal outlooks of NG storage and consumption due to their influence on the persistence and intensity of extreme winter weather in North America. This study explores the connection between the Pacific-North American climate systems and the NG market in the U.S., connecting macro-scale oceanic and atmospheric processes to regional NG storage and consumption. Western Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure patterns describe significant variation in seasonal NG storage and consumption. Prediction of these coupled climate processes is useful for estimating NG storage and consumption; this could facilitate economic adaptation toward extreme winter weather conditions. Understanding the implicated impact of climate variability on NG is a crucial step toward economic adaptation to climate change.},
author = {Stuivenvolt-Allen, Jacob and Wang, Simon S.-Y.},
doi = {10.3389/fdata.2019.00020},
issn = {2624-909X},
journal = {Frontiers in Big Data},
keywords = {Pacific Decadal Oscillation,climate,energy,extreme climate,natural gas},
month = {jun},
pages = {20},
publisher = {Frontiers Media SA},
title = {{Data Mining Climate Variability as an Indicator of U.S. Natural Gas}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fdata.2019.00020/full},
volume = {2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sturm2017,
abstract = {Nature provides critical ecosystem services on which society and businesses rely, but the effort and cost of utilizing those services can change with the climate. Both climatic trend and variance affect these efforts and costs, creating a complex decision space where uncertain future predictions are the rule. Here, we show how these problems mimic option payoffs and demonstrate a modified version of the Black–Scholes option pricing formula (widely used in finance) to analyze these types of business-climate decisions. We demonstrate the method by (1) examining the viability of building ice roads in the Northwest Territories of Canada, where a strong negative warming trend is underway, and (2) applying it to the problem of the ongoing California drought, estimating expected water costs with and without storage. The method is novel and provides a simple and accessible way to make such assessments to at least a first-order approximation. While our focus here is on business situations where decisions are usually based on money, we suggest that a similar approach could be used beyond the business world in examining risk and attributing that risk to climate variance vs. trend.},
author = {Sturm, Matthew and Goldstein, Michael A. and Huntington, Henry and Douglas, Thomas A.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1860-5},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {437--449},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Using an option pricing approach to evaluate strategic decisions in a rapidly changing climate: Black–Scholes and climate change}},
volume = {140},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Su2019,
abstract = {The changes in three aspects of frequency, intensity and duration of the compound, daytime and nighttime heat waves (HWs) over China during extended summer (May–September) in a future period of the mid-21st century (FP; 2045–2055) under RCP4.5 scenario relative to present day (PD; 1994–2011) are investigated by two models, MetUM-GOML1 and MetUM-GOML2, which comprise the atmospheric components of two state-of-the-art climate models coupled to a multi-level mixed-layer ocean model. The results show that in the mid-21st century all three types of HWs in China will occur more frequently with strengthened intensity and elongated duration relative to the PD. The compound HWs will change most dramatically, with the frequency in the FP being 4–5 times that in the PD, and the intensity and duration doubling those in the PD. The changes in daytime and nighttime HWs are also remarkable, with the changes of nighttime HWs larger than those of daytime HWs. The future changes of the three types of HWs in China in two models are similar in terms of spatial patterns and area-averaged quantities, indicating these projected changes of HWs over the China under RCP4.5 scenario are robust. Further analyses suggest that projected future changes in HWs over China are determined mainly by the increase in seasonal mean surface air temperatures with change in temperature variability playing a minor role. The seasonal mean temperature increase is due to the increase in surface downward longwave radiation and surface shortwave radiation. The increase in downward longwave radiation results from the enhanced greenhouse effect and increased water vapour in the atmosphere. The increase in surface shortwave radiation is the result of the decreased aerosol emissions, via direct aerosol–radiation interaction and indirect aerosol–cloud interaction over southeastern and northeastern China, and the reduced cloud cover related to a decrease in relative humidity.},
author = {Su, Qin and Dong, Buwen},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04743-y},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {7},
pages = {3751--3769},
title = {{Projected near-term changes in three types of heat waves over China under RCP4.5}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04743-y},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sui2018,
abstract = {ABSTRACT Using daily output from 29 climate models provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, we project signals in 12 extreme temperature indices and 12 extreme precipitation indices relative to 1986?2005 over China associated with a 2 °C global warming above pre-industrial levels under representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). The model output reflects the following projected changes: (1) It is robust and statistically significant that warm extremes are more frequent, more persistent, and more intense than those during the baseline period of 1986?2005, and local signals emerge from natural internal variability over most of China. In particular, southern China faces severe heat stress in summer based on warm extreme indices. (2) It is robust and statistically significant that there are fewer cold extremes in China. Most models show no significant changes in the longest duration and intensity of most cold extremes in southern China and northwest China. (3) The multi-model median shows that more frequent and more intense wet extremes that deliver greater amounts of extreme precipitation occur in China, with a regional mean increase of 16.7?42.8 mm (8?42{\%}) in total amount of annual wet extremes, but these changes are not significant and do not exceed natural internal variability over most of the country. Spatially, the Tibetan Plateau and northeast China have robust and significant changes in part of precipitation extremes, and some changes begin to emerge from natural internal variability at local scale. There are benefits to limiting global warming for China, including less frequent and less persistent warm extremes when comparing 1.5 °C with 2 °C of global warming and a later occurrence of significant changes in climate extremes when compared an intermediate mitigation scenario RCP4.5 with a high emission scenario RCP8.5.},
author = {Sui, Yue and Lang, Xianmei and Jiang, Dabang},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5399},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {2 °C global warming,China,precipitation extremes,signal-to-noise ratio,signals,temperature extremes},
month = {apr},
number = {S1},
pages = {e678--e697},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 °C global warming under two RCP scenarios}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5399},
volume = {38},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Sui2014a,
abstract = {The signal of climate change is emerging against a background of natural internal variability. The time of emergence (ToE) is an indicator of the magnitude of the climate change signal relative to this background variability and may be useful for climate impact assessments. In this work, we examined the ToE of surface air temperature and precipitation over China under a medium mitigation scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 based on 30 satisfactory global climate models that are chosen from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Major conclusions are: the earliest ToE of annual and seasonal temperature occurs in the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau between 2006 and 2012 for S/N {\textgreater} 1.0 and between 2020 and 2030 for S/N {\textgreater} 2.0, which is 10–20 years sooner than in Northeast China where the latest ToE appears in the country. Consistent with previous studies at the global scale, the median ToE for most of China occurs sooner in summer (2008–2020 for S/N {\textgreater} 1.0 and 2020–2045 for S/N {\textgreater} 2.0), while for Northeast and North China the median ToE occurs sooner in autumn (2015–2025 for S/N {\textgreater} 1.0 and 2040–2050 for S/N {\textgreater} 2.0). For the ToE of temperature, the inter-model uncertainty is at least 24 years in all five regions of concern and more than 85 years in some seasons, and the inter-model uncertainty in one season for which the earliest median ToE occurs is the smallest among the seasons. For precipitation, the early ToE occurs in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau for the annual mean, and seasonally it occurs first in winter in northern Northeast China and southwestern Northwest China and in winter and spring in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. For southern China, the median ToE will not occur until 2090.},
author = {Sui, Yue and Lang, Xianmei and Jiang, Dabang},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1151-y},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {2},
pages = {265--276},
title = {{Time of emergence of climate signals over China under the RCP4.5 scenario}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1151-y},
volume = {125},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Sui2017a,
author = {Sui, Cuijuan and Zhang, Zhanhai and Yu, Lejiang and Li, Yi and Song, Mirong},
doi = {10.1007/s13131-017-1137-5},
journal = {Acta Oceanologica Sinica},
number = {11},
pages = {51--60},
title = {{Investigation of Arctic air temperature extremes at north of 60°N in winter}},
volume = {36},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sully2019,
abstract = {Thermal-stress events associated with climate change cause coral bleaching and mortality that threatens coral reefs globally. Yet coral bleaching patterns vary spatially and temporally. Here we synthesize field observations of coral bleaching at 3351 sites in 81 countries from 1998 to 2017 and use a suite of environmental covariates and temperature metrics to analyze bleaching patterns. Coral bleaching was most common in localities experiencing high intensity and high frequency thermal-stress anomalies. However, coral bleaching was significantly less common in localities with a high variance in sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Geographically, the highest probability of coral bleaching occurred at tropical mid-latitude sites (15–20 degrees north and south of the Equator), despite similar thermal stress levels at equatorial sites. In the last decade, the onset of coral bleaching has occurred at significantly higher SSTs (∼0.5 °C) than in the previous decade, suggesting that thermally susceptible genotypes may have declined and/or adapted such that the remaining coral populations now have a higher thermal threshold for bleaching.},
author = {Sully, S and Burkepile, D E and Donovan, M K and Hodgson, G and van Woesik, R},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09238-2},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {1264},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{A global analysis of coral bleaching over the past two decades}},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sultan2020,
abstract = {Climate services have been criticised in the past for their tendency to only disseminate results from climate research, rather than to seek to understand and tailor to the needs of their target audiences. Two surveys have been conducted within two projects, ISIpedia and CLIMAP, to assess users' needs for climate and climate impacts information of all countries (with a foremost focus on West Africa) and for Senegal. The joint analysis of the results showed that climate and climate-impact information is very relevant for West African respondents' activities but a number of barriers prevent existing climate services from fully fulfilling the role they could play in this respect. Consistently across both surveys, the respondents highlighted the irrelevance or the incompleteness of the information that current climate services provide, which is mostly related to the lack of high-resolution information or high uncertainties, as the biggest barriers. Both surveys showed that the lack of training to understand the provided information is also an important barrier, which calls for the organisation of capacity-building activities to ensure the uptake of the information by their target audiences. Overall, the survey responses demonstrated the importance of stakeholder engagement to ensure the usefulness of climate services in West Africa. In addition, appropriate integration of the existing climate services within the national contexts as well as their dissemination within the ecosystem of information portals and products appear to be essential to ensure their effectiveness.},
author = {Sultan, B and Lejeune, Q and Menke, I and Maskell, G and Lee, K and Noblet, M and Sy, I and Roudier, P},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100166},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate impacts,Climate services,Senegal,Survey,West Africa},
pages = {100166},
title = {{Current needs for climate services in West Africa: Results from two stakeholder surveys}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880720300182},
volume = {18},
year = {2020}
}
@article{rs12122060,
abstract = {Snow plays an important role in meteorological, hydrological and ecological processes, and snow phenology variation is critical for improved understanding of climate feedback on snow cover. The main purpose of the study is to explore spatial-temporal changes and variabilities of the extent, timing and duration, as well as phenology of seasonal snow cover across the large part of Eurasia from 2000 through 2016 using a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-free snow product produced in this study. The results indicate that there are no significant positive or negative interannual trends of snow cover extent (SCE) from 2000 to 2016, but there are large seasonal differences. SCE shows a significant negative trend in spring (p = 0.01) and a positive trend in winter. The stable snow cover areas accounting for 78.8{\%} of the large part of Eurasia, are mainly located north of latitude 45° N and in the mountainous areas. In this stable area, the number of snow-covered days is significantly increasing (p {\textless} 0.05) in 6.4{\%} of the region and decreasing in 9.1{\%} of the region, with the decreasing areas being mainly located in high altitude mountain areas and the increasing area occurring mainly in the ephemeral snow cover areas of northeastern and southern China. In central Siberia, Pamir and the Tibetan Plateau, the snow onset date tends to be delayed while the end date is becoming earlier from 2000 to 2016. While in the relatively low altitude plain areas, such as the West Siberian Plain and the Eastern European Plain region, the snow onset date is tending to advance, the end date tends to be delayed, but the increase is not significant.},
author = {Sun, Yanhua and Zhang, Tingjun and Liu, Yijing and Zhao, Wenyu and Huang, Xiaodong},
doi = {10.3390/rs12122060},
issn = {2072-4292},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
month = {jun},
number = {12},
pages = {2060},
title = {{Assessing Snow Phenology over the Large Part of Eurasia Using Satellite Observations from 2000 to 2016}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/12/2060},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2019GL084260,
abstract = {Abstract The long-term change of tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence (TCO) was investigated by combining TC track density function and empirical orthogonal function methods to consider TC duration through a new perspective. Pronounced ongoing poleward migration of TCO was found for 1982–2018. This change has primarily resulted from the modification of TC propagation from westward to northward since 1998. A cyclonic anomaly of the large-scale environmental steering flow centered on East Asia was found based on a comparison of 1982–1997 and 1998–2018 periods. The cyclonic anomaly encompasses the southerly anomaly south of 20°N, which is the mainspring of the poleward migration of TCO, while the extra warming along the coast of China also favors this long-term change. This study made it possible to analyze discrete spatiotemporal TC observations continuously and provided helpful techniques for projecting TC changes using numerical methods.},
author = {Sun, Jia and Wang, Dingqi and Hu, Xiaomin and Ling, Zheng and Wang, Lu},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084260},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {long-term change,poleward migration,tropical cyclone,western North Pacific},
number = {15},
pages = {9110--9117},
title = {{Ongoing Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Over the Western North Pacific Ocean}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL084260},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{doi:10.1029/2019GL084281,
abstract = {Abstract The anthropogenic-induced global warming and local urbanization exert important influences on temperature extremes in Eastern China. Here we use China station observations and climate models to investigate their effects on the warm and cold days and nights simultaneously. We quantified the contribution from these two factors based on an optimal fingerprinting method. We find that both anthropogenic and urbanization signals can be clearly detected and separated from each other in the nighttime temperature extremes. The effect of urbanization may explain as much as one third of the observed changes in cold and warm nights while the urbanization signal is weak in the daytime extremes. The results are robust against sampling uncertainty in the estimate of urbanization signal, but uncertainty due to collinearity between the urbanization signal and global warming is difficult to assess.},
author = {Sun, Ying and Hu, Ting and Zhang, Xuebin and Li, Chao and Lu, Chunhui and Ren, Guoyu and Jiang, Zhihong},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084281},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {anthropogenic forcing,detection and attribution,temperature extremes,urbanization effects},
number = {20},
pages = {11426--11434},
title = {{Contribution of Global warming and Urbanization to Changes in Temperature Extremes in Eastern China}},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL084281},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{w12061605,
abstract = {The assessment of future climate changes on drought and water scarcity is extremely important for water resources management. A modeling system is developed to study the potential status of hydrological drought and water scarcity in the future, and this modeling system is applied to the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) of China. Driven by high-resolution climate projections from the Regional Climate Modeling System (RegCM), the Variable Infiltration Capacity model is employed to produce future streamflow projections (2020–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The copula-based method is applied to identify the correlation between drought variables (i.e., duration and severity), and to further quantify their joint risks. Based on a variety of hypothetical water use scenarios in the future, the water scarcity conditions including extreme cases are estimated through the Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+) indicator. The results indicate that the joint risks of drought variables at different return periods would decrease. In detail, the severity of future drought events would become less serious under different RCP scenarios when compared with that in the historical period. However, considering the increase in water consumption in the future, the water scarcity in JRB may not be alleviated in the future, and thus drought assessment alone may underestimate the severity of future water shortage. The results obtained from the modeling system can help policy makers to develop reasonable future water-saving planning schemes, as well as drought mitigation measures.},
author = {Sun, Chaoxing and Zhou, Xiong},
doi = {10.3390/w12061605},
issn = {2073-4441},
journal = {Water},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1605},
title = {{Characterizing Hydrological Drought and Water Scarcity Changes in the Future: A Case Study in the Jinghe River Basin of China}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/6/1605},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Sun2019a,
abstract = {The effects of heat stress are spatially heterogeneous owing to local variations in climate response, population density, and social conditions. Using global climate and impact models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, our analysis shows that the frequency and intensity of heat events increase, especially in tropical regions (geographic perspective)and developing countries (national perspective), even with global warming held to the 1.5 °C target. An additional 0.5 °C increase to the 2 °C warming target leads to {\textgreater}15{\%} of global land area becoming exposed to levels of heat stress that affect human health; almost all countries in Europe will be subject to increased fire danger, with the duration of the fire season lasting 3.3 days longer; 106 countries are projected to experience an increase in the wheat production-damage index. Globally, about 38{\%}, 50{\%}, 46{\%}, 36{\%}, and 48{\%} of the increases in exposure to health threats, wildfire, crop heat stress for soybeans, wheat, and maize could be avoided by constraining global warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C. With high emissions, these impacts will continue to intensify over time, extending to almost all countries by the end of the 21st century: {\textgreater}95{\%} of countries will face exposure to health-related heat stress, with India and Brazil ranked highest for integrated heat-stress exposure. The magnitude of the changes in fire season length and wildfire frequency are projected to increase substantially over 74{\%} global land, with particularly strong effects in the United States, Canada, Brazil, China, Australia, and Russia. Our study should help facilitate climate policies that account for international variations in the heat-related threats posed by climate change.},
author = {Sun, Qiaohong and Miao, Chiyuan and Hanel, Martin and Borthwick, Alistair G.L. and Duan, Qingyun and Ji, Duoying and Li, Hu},
doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2019.04.025},
issn = {18736750},
journal = {Environment International},
keywords = {1.5 °C warming target,Exposure,Global warming,Heat-related extremes},
number = {July},
pages = {125--136},
title = {{Global heat stress on health, wildfires, and agricultural crops under different levels of climate warming}},
volume = {128},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Supari2020a,
abstract = {This study examines the projected precipitation extremes for the end of 21st century (2081–2100) over Southeast Asia (SEA) using the output of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Eight ensemble members, representing a subset of archived CORDEX-SEA simulations at 25 km spatial resolution, were examined for emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study utilised four different indicators of rainfall extreme, i.e. the annual/seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of extremely heavy rainfall (R50mm) and annual/seasonal maximum of daily rainfall (RX1day). In general, changes in extreme indices are more pronounced and covering wider area under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. The decrease in annual PRCPTOT is projected over most of SEA region, except for Myanmar and Northern Thailand, with magnitude as much as 20{\%} (30{\%}) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The most significant and robust changes were noted in CDD, which is projected to increase by as much as 30{\%} under RCP4.5 and 60{\%} under RCP8.5, particularly over Maritime Continent (MC). The projected decrease in PRCPTOT over MC is significant and robust during June to August (JJA) and September to November (SON). During March to May (MAM) under RCP8.5, significant and robust PRCPTOT decreases are also projected over Indochina. The CDD changes during JJA and SON over MC are even higher, more robust and significant compared to the annual changes. At the same time, a wetting tendency is also projected over Indochina. The R50mm and RX1day are projected to increase, during all seasons with significant and robust signal of RX1day during JJA and SON.},
author = {Supari and Tangang, Fredolin and Juneng, Liew and Cruz, Faye and Chung, Jing Xiang and Ngai, Sheau Tieh and Salimun, Ester and Mohd, Mohd Syazwan Faisal and Santisirisomboon, Jerasorn and Singhruck, Patama and PhanVan, Tan and Ngo-Duc, Thanh and Narisma, Gemma and Aldrian, Edvin and Gunawan, Dodo and Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena},
doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109350},
issn = {00139351},
journal = {Environmental Research},
keywords = {CORDEX-SEA,Climate change,Drought,Dynamical downscaling,Extreme precipitation},
month = {may},
pages = {109350},
title = {{Multi-model projections of precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia simulations}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935120302437 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0013935120302437},
volume = {184},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Supari2017,
author = {Supari and Tangang, Fredolin and Juneng, Liew and Aldrian, Edvin},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4829},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {ETCCDI,Indonesia,climate change,climate extremes indices,trends},
month = {mar},
number = {4},
pages = {1979--1997},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over Indonesia}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4829},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Surdu2016,
abstract = {Abstract. Arctic lakes, through their ice cover phenology, are a key indicator of climatic changes that the high-latitude environment is experiencing. In the case of lakes in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), many of which are ice covered more than 10 months per year, warmer temperatures could result in ice regime shifts. Within the dominant polar-desert environment, small local warmer areas have been identified. These relatively small regions – polar oases – with longer growing seasons and greater biological productivity and diversity are secluded from the surrounding barren polar desert. The ice regimes of 11 lakes located in both polar-desert and polar-oasis environments, with surface areas between 4 and 542 km2, many of unknown bathymetry, were documented. In order to investigate the response of ice cover of lakes in the CAA to climate conditions during recent years, a 15-year time series (1997–2011) of RADARSAT-1/2 ScanSAR Wide Swath, ASAR Wide Swath, and Landsat acquisitions were analyzed. Results show that melt onset occurred earlier for all observed lakes. With the exception of Lower Murray Lake, all lakes experienced earlier summer ice minimum and water-clear-of-ice (WCI) dates, with greater changes being observed for polar-oasis lakes (9–24 days earlier WCI dates for lakes located in polar oases and 2–20 days earlier WCI dates for polar-desert lakes). Additionally, results suggest that some lakes may be transitioning from a perennial/multiyear to a seasonal ice regime, with only a few lakes maintaining a multiyear ice cover on occasional years. Aside Lake Hazen and Murray Lakes, which preserved their ice cover during the summer of 2009, no residual ice was observed on any of the other lakes from 2007 to 2011.},
author = {Surdu, Cristina M. and Duguay, Claude R. and {Fern{\'{a}}ndez Prieto}, Diego},
doi = {10.5194/tc-10-941-2016},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {may},
number = {3},
pages = {941--960},
title = {{Evidence of recent changes in the ice regime of lakes in the Canadian High Arctic from spaceborne satellite observations}},
url = {https://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/941/2016/},
volume = {10},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sutton2016,
abstract = {Food caching is a behavioural strategy used by a wide range of animals to store food for future use. When food is stored, it is susceptible to environmental conditions that can lead to spoilage via microbial proliferation or physical and chemical processes. Given that the nutrition gained from consuming cached food will almost always be less than consuming it immediately upon capture, the degree of degradation will play a central role in determining the ecological threshold at which caching is no longer profitable. Our framework proposes that the degree of susceptibility among caching species is based primarily on the duration of storage, and the perishability of stored food. We first summarize the degree of susceptibility of 203 vertebrate caching species. Thirty-eight percent (38{\%}) of these species are long-term cachers ({\textgreater}10 days) but only 2{\%} are both long-term cachers and store highly perishable food. We then integrate insights from the fields of applied food science and plant biology to outline potential mechanisms by which climate change may influence food-caching species. Four climatic factors (temperature, number of freeze-thaw events, deep-freeze events and humidity) have been shown to affect the degradation of food consumed by humans and are also expected to influence the quality of perishable food cached in the wild. Temperature and moisture are likely important factors influencing seemingly nonperishable seeds. Although we are able to provide broad classifications for caching species at risk of climate change, an improved understanding of how environmental conditions affect the quality and persistence of cached food may allow us to better predict the impact of changing climatic conditions on the fitness of food-caching animals.},
author = {Sutton, Alex O. and Strickland, Dan and Norris, D. Ryan},
doi = {10.1186/s40665-016-0025-0},
issn = {2053-7565},
journal = {Climate Change Responses},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {12},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
title = {{Food storage in a changing world: implications of climate change for food-caching species}},
volume = {3},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Svoboda2017a,
abstract = {Why is it important to monitor droughts? Droughts are a normal part of the climate, and they can occur in any climate regime around the world, even deserts and rainforests. Droughts are one of the more costly natural hazards on a year-to-year basis; their impacts are significant and widespread, affecting many economic sectors and people at any one time. The hazard footprints of (areas affected by) droughts are typically larger than those for other hazards, which are usually constrained to floodplains, coastal regions, storm tracks, or fault zones. Perhaps no other hazard lends itself quite so well to monitoring, 156because the slow onset of droughts allows time to observe changes in precipitation, temperature, and the overall status of surface water and groundwater supplies in a region. Drought indicators, or indices, are often used to help track droughts and these tools can vary depending on the region and the season.},
address = {Boca Raton, FL, USA},
author = {Svoboda, Mark D. and Fuchs, Brian A.},
booktitle = {Drought and Water Crises: Integrating Science, Management, and Policy (Second Edition)},
doi = {10.1201/b22009},
edition = {2nd},
editor = {Wilhite, D. A and Pulwarty, R. S.},
isbn = {9781351967525},
pages = {155--208},
publisher = {CRC Press},
title = {{Handbook of drought indicators and indices}},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Swain2015,
abstract = {Climate change is expected to alter the mean and variability of future spring and summer drought and wet conditions during the twenty-first century across North America, as characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, statistically significant increases are projected in mean spring SPI over the northern part of the continent, and drier conditions across the southwest. Dry conditions in summer also increase, particularly throughout the central Great Plains. By end of century, greater changes are projected under a higher radiative forcing scenario (RCP 8.5) as compared to moderate (RCP 6.0) and lower (RCP 4.5). Analysis of projected changes standardized to a range of global warming thresholds from +1 to +4 °C reveals a consistent spatial pattern of wetter conditions in the northern and drier conditions in the southwestern part of the continent in spring that intensifies under increased warming, suggesting that the magnitude of projected changes in wetness and drought may scale with global temperature. For many regions, SPI interannual variability is also projected to increase (even for regions that are projected to become drier), indicating that climate may become more extreme under greater warming, with increased frequency of both extreme dry and wet seasons. Quantifying the direction and magnitude of projected future trends from global warming is key to informing strategies to mitigate human influence on climate and help natural and managed resources adapt.},
author = {Swain, Sharmistha and Hayhoe, Katharine},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-014-2255-9},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CMIP5,Climate projections,Drought,Great Plains,North America,Standardized Precipitation Index},
number = {9-10},
pages = {2737--2750},
publisher = {Springer Verlag},
title = {{CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America}},
volume = {44},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Swann2016,
abstract = {Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70{\%} of global land area. This area drops to 37{\%} with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2 , including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.},
author = {Swann, Abigail L.S. and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Koven, Charles D. and Randerson, James T.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1604581113},
file = {::},
issn = {10916490},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
keywords = {Climate impact,Drought,Evaporation,Global hydrology,Global warming},
month = {sep},
number = {36},
pages = {10019--10024},
pmid = {27573831},
title = {{Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity}},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sweerts2019,
abstract = {China is the largest worldwide consumer of solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity, with 130 GW of installed capacity as of 2017. China's PV capacity is expected to reach at least 400 GW by 2030, to provide 10{\%} of its primary energy. However, anthropogenic aerosol emissions and changes in cloud cover affect solar radiation in China. Here, we use observational radiation data from 119 stations across China to show that the PV potential decreased on average by 11–15{\%} between 1960 and 2015. The relationship between observed surface radiation and emissions of sulfur dioxide and black carbon suggests that strict air pollution control measures, combined with reduced fossil fuel consumption, would allow surface radiation to increase. We find that reverting back to 1960s radiation levels in China could yield a 12–13{\%} increase in electricity generation, equivalent to an additional 14 TWh produced with 2016 PV capacities, and 51–74 TWh with the expected 2030 capacities. The corresponding economic benefits could amount to US{\$}1.9 billion in 2016 and US{\$}4.6–6.7 billion in 2030.},
author = {Sweerts, Bart and Pfenninger, Stefan and Yang, Su and Folini, Doris and van der Zwaan, Bob and Wild, Martin},
doi = {10.1038/s41560-019-0412-4},
issn = {2058-7546},
journal = {Nature Energy},
keywords = {Atmospheric science,Energy modelling,Environmental impact,Photovoltaics},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {657--663},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Estimation of losses in solar energy production from air pollution in China since 1960 using surface radiation data}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-019-0412-4},
volume = {4},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Sweet2014,
author = {Sweet, William V and Park, Joseph},
doi = {10.1002/2014EF000272},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {coastal inundation,nuisance flooding,sea level rise},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {579--600},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014EF000272},
volume = {2},
year = {2014}
}
@techreport{Sweet2018,
address = {Silver Spring, MD, USA},
author = {Sweet, William V and Dusek, Greg and Obeysekera, J. and Marra, John J.},
doi = {10.7289/V5/TR-NOS-COOPS-086},
file = {::},
keywords = {Flood forecasting,Flood warning systems,Tides},
pages = {56},
publisher = {National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Ocean Service (NOS) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (COOPS)},
series = {NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 086},
title = {{Patterns and projections of high tide flooding along the U.S. coastline using a common impact threshold}},
url = {https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/17403},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Sweet2017,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Sweet, W.V. and Horton, R. and Kopp, R.E. and LeGrande, A.N. and Romanou, A.},
booktitle = {Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I},
doi = {10.7930/J0VM49F2},
editor = {Wuebbles, D.J. and Fahey, D.W. and Hibbard, K.A. and Dokken, D.J. and Stewart, B.C. and Maycock, T.K.},
pages = {333--363},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Sea Level Rise}},
url = {https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/12/},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Syed_2016,
author = {Syed, Md. and {Al Amin}, M.},
doi = {10.3390/cli4020021},
issn = {2225-1154},
journal = {Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {21},
publisher = {{\{}MDPI{\}} {\{}AG{\}}},
title = {{Geospatial Modeling for Investigating Spatial Pattern and Change Trend of Temperature and Rainfall}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3390{\%}2Fcli4020021 http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/4/2/21},
volume = {4},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sylla2016a,
abstract = {The response ofWest African climate zones to anthropogenic climate change during the late 21st century is investigated using the revised Thornthwaite climate classification applied to ensembles of CMIP5, CORDEX, and higher-resolution RegCM4 experiments (HIRES). The ensembles reproduce fairly well the observed climate zones, although with some notable discrepancies. CORDEX and HIRES provide realistic fine-scale information which enhances that from the coarser-scale CMIP5, especially in the Gulf of Guinea encompassing marked landcover and topography gradients. The late 21st century projections reveal an extension of torrid climates throughoutWest Africa. In addition, the Sahel, predom- inantly semi-arid in present-day conditions, is projected to face moderately persistent future arid climate. Similarly, the Gulf of Guinea shows a tendency in the future to experience highly seasonal semi-arid conditions. Finally, wet and moist regions with an extreme seasonality around orographic zones become less extensive under future climate change. Consequently, West Africa evolves towards increasingly torrid, arid and semi-arid regimes with the recession of moist and wet zones mostly because of the temperature forcing, although precipitation can be locally an important factor. These features are common to all multimodel ensembles, a sign of robustness, with few disagreements in their areal extents, and with more pronounced changes in the higher-resolution RCM projections. Such changes point towards an increased risk of water stress for managed and unmanaged ecosystems, and thus add an element of vulnerability to future anthropogenic climate change for West African water management, ecosystem services and agricultural activities.},
author = {Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Elguindi, Nellie and Giorgi, Filippo and Wisser, Dominik},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1522-z},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {241--253},
title = {{Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-015-1522-z},
volume = {134},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sylla2018,
author = {Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Faye, Aissatou and Giorgi, Filippo and Diedhiou, Arona and Kunstmann, Harald},
doi = {10.1029/2018EF000873},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {1029--1044},
title = {{Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018EF000873},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Sylla2016,
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Nikiema, Pinghouinde Michel and Gibba, Peter and Kebe, Ibourahima and Klutse, Nana Ama Browne},
booktitle = {Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Rural West Africa},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-31499-0_3},
editor = {Yaro, Joseph A. and Hesselberg, Jan},
isbn = {978-3-319-31497-6},
pages = {25--40},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Climate Change over West Africa: Recent Trends and Future Projections}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-31499-0{\_}3},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Syvitski2007,
abstract = {Sediment flux to the coastal zone is conditioned by geomorphic and tectonic influences (basin area and relief), geography (temperature, runoff), geology (lithology, ice cover), and human activities (reservoir trapping, soil erosion). A new model, termed “BQART” in recognition of those factors, accounts for these varied influences. When applied to a database of 488 rivers, the BQART model showed no ensemble over- or underprediction, had a bias of just 3{\%} across six orders of magnitude in observational values, and accounted for 96{\%} of the between-river variation in the long-term (?30 years) sediment load or yield of these rivers. The geographical range of the 488 rivers covers 63{\%} of the global land surface and is highly representative of global geology, climate, and socioeconomic conditions. Based strictly on geological parameters (basin area, relief, lithology, ice erosion), 65{\%} of the between-river sediment load is explained. Climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) account for an additional 14{\%} of the variability in global patterns in load. Anthropogenic factors account for an additional 16{\%} of the between-river loads, although with ever more dams being constructed or decommissioned and socioeconomic conditions and infrastructure in flux, this contribution is temporally variable. The glacial factor currently contributes only 1{\%} of the signal represented by our globally distributed database, but it would be much more important during and just after major glaciations. The BQART model makes possible the quantification of the influencing factors (e.g., climate, basin area, ice cover) within individual basins, to better interpret the terrestrial signal in marine sedimentary records. The BQART model predicts the long-term flux of sediment delivered by rivers; it does not predict the episodicity (e.g., typhoons, earth- quakes) of this delivery.},
author = {Syvitski, James P. M. and Milliman, John D.},
doi = {10.1086/509246},
isbn = {00221376 (ISSN)},
issn = {0022-1376},
journal = {The Journal of Geology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--19},
title = {{Geology, Geography, and Humans Battle for Dominance over the Delivery of Fluvial Sediment to the Coastal Ocean}},
url = {http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/509246 https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/509246},
volume = {115},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Takagi2016,
abstract = {The unusual statistical characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan were investigated using the JTWC best track data from 1945 to 2013, particularly focusing on tropical cyclones making landfall in the Philippines. Haiyan generated the strongest winds among a collection of over 400 past storms, which was 16 {\%} greater than the second strongest typhoon on record (Typhoon Zeb in 1998). The forward speed of Haiyan was nearly twice as fast as the average speed of these weather systems and could be the fastest typhoon on record. Thus, Haiyan can be characterized as both the fastest moving and strongest typhoon measured in the area. The return period for a Haiyan-class typhoon to make landfall was estimated to be 200 years. A statistical analysis also indicated that the number of tropical cyclone making landfall around Leyte Island in the Philippines---the area most severely damaged by Haiyan---has been steadily increasing over the past 7 decades. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) indicates that both Haiyan and Zeb occurred during seasons that were characterized by remarkably warm SSTs over the seas surrounding the Philippines.},
author = {Takagi, Hiroshi and Esteban, Miguel},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-015-1965-6},
isbn = {0921-030X},
issn = {15730840},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
number = {1},
pages = {211--222},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Statistics of tropical cyclone landfalls in the Philippines: unusual characteristics of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan}},
volume = {80},
year = {2016}
}
@article{su8090959,
abstract = {The present paper demonstrates that inundation levels in the Mekong Delta's largest city, Can Tho, are predominantly determined by ocean tides, sea-level rise, and land subsidence. Our analysis of inundation patterns projects that the duration of inundation at an important road in the city will continue to rise from the current total of 72 inundated days per year to 270 days by 2030 and 365 days by 2050. This is attributed to the combined influence of sea-level rise and land subsidence, which causes relative water level rises at a rate of 22.3 mm{\textperiodcentered}yr−1. People in the Mekong Delta have traditionally lived with floods, and thus there is certain resilience among residents in coping with small floods. At present, daily maximum inundation depth, which is generally shallower than 10 cm on the road, seems to be still manageable; however, our analysis indicates that this will start drastically increasing in the coming decades and reach an average depth of 70 cm by 2050. Effective and well-planned actions to mitigate the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise are urgently required, otherwise, local inhabitants will encounter an unmanageable increase in inundation depth and duration in the coming decades. This study, which considers both sea-level rise and land subsidence, suggests that inundation depth and duration are projected to rise much faster than those indicated by previous studies, which only consider sea-level rise.},
author = {Takagi, Hiroshi and Thao, Nguyen and Anh, Le},
doi = {10.3390/su8090959},
issn = {2071-1050},
journal = {Sustainability},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {959},
title = {{Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence: Impacts on Flood Projections for the Mekong Delta's Largest City}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/9/959 http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/9/959},
volume = {8},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Takahashi2016a,
abstract = {The Pacific trade winds, coupled with the zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, control regional sea levels, and therefore their trend is a great concern in the Pacific Rim. Over the past two decades, easterly winds have been accelerated in association with eastern tropical Pacific cooling. They may represent natural interdecadal variability in the Pacific and possibly explain the recent global warming hiatus. However, the intensification of the winds has been the strongest ever observed in the past century, the reason for which is still unclear. Here we show, using multiple climate simulations for 1921-2014 by a global climate model, that approximately one-third of the trade-wind intensification for 1991-2010 can be attributed to changes in sulfate aerosols. The multidecadal sea surface temperature anomaly induced mostly by volcanic aerosols dominates in the western North Pacific, and its sign changed rapidly from negative to positive in the 1990s, coherently with Atlantic multidecadal variability. The western North Pacific warming resulted in intensification of trade winds to the west of the dateline. These trends have not contributed much to the global warming hiatus, but have greatly impacted rainfall over the western Pacific islands.},
author = {Takahashi, Chiharu and Watanabe, Masahiro},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2996},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {8},
pages = {768--772},
title = {{Pacific trade winds accelerated by aerosol forcing over the past two decades}},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Tall2018,
abstract = {This paper addresses the need for more rigorous evaluation of climate service projects and investments given the existence of little evidence on the actual value of climate services and the challenges that hamper current efforts to evaluate the impact of climate services for the agricultural community. Based on our in-depth review of existing literature from Africa and around the world, we find that rigorous methods for evaluating climate services span qualitative context-based and quantitative methodological approaches. The few studies that have been conducted so far to determine the value of climate services for farmers were for initiatives that incorporated in their design an evaluation framework. This highlights the importance of experimentally designing climate service programs for evaluation based on an impact pathway, rather than leaving evaluation as an after-thought. To strengthen the evidence base on the actual value of climate information services, complementary evaluation efforts will need to draw on a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches, be sensitive to the heterogeneity of user groups, and go beyond the focus on agricultural production to include other dimensions of the agricultural system.},
author = {Tall, Arame and Coulibaly, Jeanne Y. and Diop, Moustapha},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2018.06.001},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {aug},
pages = {1--12},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Do climate services make a difference? A review of evaluation methodologies and practices to assess the value of climate information services for farmers: Implications for Africa}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880717300882 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880717300882},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{Tall2014,
address = {Copenhagen, Denmark},
author = {Tall, Arame and Hansen, James and Jay, Alexa and Campbell, Bruce M. and Kinyangi, James and Aggarwal, Pramod K. and Zougmor{\'{e}}, Robert B.},
file = {::},
keywords = {Report,advisory services,agriculture,climate,climate change,evaluation,food security,information services,smallholders},
pages = {44},
publisher = {CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)},
series = {CCAFS Report No. 13},
title = {{Scaling up climate services for farmers: Mission Possible. Learning from good practice in Africa and South Asia}},
url = {https://hdl.handle.net/10568/42445},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Tam2019,
abstract = {Drought projections on seasonal to annual time scales are presented for Canada over the twenty-first century, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results make use of bias-corrected temperature and precipitation projections from 29 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and include three different forcing scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Large differences in projected drought changes are observed among different regions. On the annual time scale, southwestern Canada and the Prairies may experience an increase in drying under a warmer climate. On the other hand, coastal regions, including northern Canada, the northwest Pacific coast and the Atlantic region, show a small increase in wetness. Winter and spring SPEI results depict an increase in wetting, reflecting the projected country-wide winter and spring precipitation increases under climate change. For the most part, autumn and summer show increases in drying. The largest relative changes in both summer drying and winter wetting were found over northern regions, but the offsetting seasonal effects typically balance out to yield various degrees of wetting on the annual scale for this region. The projected drought responses are relatively modest in the weak forcing scenario (RCP2.6) for most Canadian regions. In addition, even for regions most affected, a marked increase in surface water deficit might not occur until the second half of this century. Inter-model variation (a crude measure of projection uncertainty) typically increases with forcing intensity and lead time, and is generally greater in northern and western Canada.},
author = {Tam, Benita Y. and Szeto, Kit and Bonsal, Barrie and Flato, Greg and Cannon, Alex J. and Rong, Robin},
doi = {10.1080/07011784.2018.1537812},
issn = {07011784},
journal = {Canadian Water Resources Journal},
keywords = {CMIP5,Drought,Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Inde,climate scenarios,water balance},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {90--107},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis Ltd.},
title = {{CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index}},
volume = {44},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tamerius2016,
abstract = {AbstractNumerous studies have shown that precipitation has a significant impact on motor vehicle crashes. Hourly weather radar data with a 4-km resolution and over 600 000 crashes from 2002 to 2012 in Iowa are used to assess the effects of precipitation on motor vehicle crashes. Using a matched pairs analysis, this study finds that the relative accident risk (RAR) across the state during the study period was 1.69 [1.66, 1.71]. However, RAR increased to as high as 3.7 [3.6, 4.0] and as low as 1.1 [1.0, 1.2] for frozen and liquid precipitation types, respectively. RAR also varied significantly by hour of the day, with RAR near 2 in the late afternoon and 1.3 during the early morning hours, suggesting an interaction effect between precipitation and traffic volume and/or density on crash risk. The study also shows that interstates and major highways tend to have higher RAR than smaller roads, and it was able to identify locations that are particularly sensitive to precipitation with regard to crashes. This st...},
author = {Tamerius, J. D. and Zhou, X. and Mantilla, R. and Greenfield-Huitt, T.},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0009.1},
issn = {1948-8327},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
keywords = {Applications,Geographic information systems (GIS),Geographic location/entity,Local effects,North America,Observational techniques and algorithms,Radars/Radar observations,Societal impacts,Transportation meteorology},
month = {oct},
number = {4},
pages = {399--407},
title = {{Precipitation Effects on Motor Vehicle Crashes Vary by Space, Time, and Environmental Conditions}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0009.1},
volume = {8},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Tang2019a,
abstract = {Understanding trends in large hail-producing environments is an important component of estimating hail risk. Here, we use two environmental parameters, the Large Hail Parameter and the Significant Hail Parameter, to assess trends in days with environments conducive for hail ≥5 cm. From 1979 to 2017, there has been an increase in days with favorable large hail environments in central and eastern portions of the U.S. This increase has been driven primarily by an increasing frequency of days with steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates and necessary combinations of instability and vertical wind shear for severe thunderstorms. Annual large hail environment area is significantly, positively correlated with (1) large hail report area east of the Rocky Mountains, and (2) large hail radar-derived area in the Midwest and Northeast. This evidence suggests that there may be an environmental fingerprint on increasing large hail risk and expanding this risk eastward.},
author = {Tang, Brian H. and Gensini, Vittorio A. and Homeyer, Cameron R.},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-019-0103-7},
issn = {2397-3722},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {45},
title = {{Trends in United States large hail environments and observations}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0103-7},
volume = {2},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tang2019,
author = {Tang, Chao and Morel, B{\'{e}}atrice and Wild, Martin and Pohl, Benjamin and Abiodun, Babatunde and Lennard, Chris and Bessafi, Miloud},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04817-x},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {aug},
number = {3-4},
pages = {2197--2227},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Numerical simulation of surface solar radiation over Southern Africa. Part 2: projections of regional and global climate models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-04817-x},
volume = {53},
year = {2019}
}
@article{TART2020100109,
abstract = {As organisations start to make combatting climate change a more prominent part of their sustainability plans, climate services are emerging among a broad range of industries and for multiple purposes. The analysis provided in this paper depicts how such changes are unfolding among both traditional and non-traditional climate service sectors. In addition to desktop research, data has been collected via an online survey conducted among climate service users around the world (n = 248), and from interviews with both users and non-users of climate services (n = 36) across three economic sectors in Europe: food and drink; manufacturing; and pharmaceuticals and healthcare. These sectors were chosen for this paper due to their potential links to climate services, and the fact that they provide a glimpse into how climate services can be used in conjunction with the private sector. Analysis shows that users have a greater need for either past climate data or data analysis that falls within the next year, meaning they are less interested in long-term data with higher uncertainties. Moreover, while climate services hold great potential and offer huge societal benefits, their presence is not always easy to find outside of research purposes. Policies and regulations can fill this gap and be a strong purchase driver for climate services, as can the development of climate services that help companies achieve their corporate social responsibility and sustainability goals.},
annote = {Special issue on European Climate Services Markets – Conditions, Challenges, Prospects, and Examples},
author = {Tart, Suzi and Groth, Markus and Seipold, Peer},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100109},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Climate services demand,Food,Healthcare,Manufacturing,Pharmaceuticals,User needs},
pages = {100109},
title = {{Market demand for climate services: An assessment of users' needs}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880719300500},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Taufik2017,
author = {Taufik, Muh and Torfs, Paul J J F and Uijlenhoet, Remko and Jones, Philip D and Murdiyarso, Daniel and {Van Lanen}, Henny A J},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3280},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {428--431},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3280 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3280{\#}supplementary-information http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3280},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Taylor2018,
abstract = {A 10-member ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is used to analyze the Caribbean's future climate when mean global surface air temperatures are 1.58, 2.08, and 2.58C above preindustrial (1861–1900) values. The global warming targets are attained by the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s respectively for RCP4.5. The Caribbean on average exhibits smaller mean surface air temperature increases than the globe, although there are parts of the region that are always warmer than the global warming targets. In comparison to the present (using a 1971–2000 baseline), the Caribbean domain is 0.58 to 1.58Cwarmer at the 1.58C target, 5{\%}–10{\%}wetter except for the northeast and southeast Caribbean, which are drier, and experiences increases in annual warm spells of more than 100 days. At the 2.08C target, there is additional warming by 0.28–1.08C, a further extension of warm spells by up to 70 days, a shift to a pre- dominantly drier region (5{\%}–15{\%} less than present day), and a greater occurrence of droughts. The climate patterns at 2.58C indicate an intensification of the changes seen at 2.08C. The shift in the rainfall pattern between 1.58C (wet) and 2.08C (dry) for parts of the domain has implications for regional adaptation pursuits. The results provide some justification for the lobby by the Caribbean Community and Small Island Developing States to limit global warming to 1.58C above preindustrial levels, as embodied in the slogan ‘‘1.5 to Stay Alive.''},
author = {Taylor, Michael A. and Clarke, Leonardo A. and Centella, Abel and Bezanilla, Arnoldo and Stephenson, Tannecia S. and Jones, Jhordanne J. and Campbell, Jayaka D. and Vichot, Alejandro and Charlery, John},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0074.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {2907--2926},
title = {{Future Caribbean Climates in a World of Rising Temperatures: The 1.5 vs 2.0 Dilemma}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0074.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Taylor2017,
author = {Taylor, Christopher M. and Belu{\v{s}}i{\'{c}}, Danijel and Guichard, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Parker, Douglas J. and Vischel, Th{\'{e}}o and Bock, Olivier and Harris, Phil P. and Janicot, Serge and Klein, Cornelia and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my},
doi = {10.1038/nature22069},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {apr},
number = {7651},
pages = {475--478},
title = {{Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature22069},
volume = {544},
year = {2017}
}
@unpublished{Taylor2017a,
abstract = {The overarching objective of FCFA is to generate fundamentally new climate science focused on Africa, and to ensure that this science has an impact on human development across the continent. FRACTAL's main aim is to advance scientific knowledge on regional climate responses to global change and enhance knowledge on how to integrate this information into decision making at the city-region scale in Southern Africa. These products have been developed to share initial findings from research in the hope of fostering dialogue and eliciting feedback to strengthen the research. The opinions expressed are therefore the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by DFID, NERC or other programme partners.},
author = {Taylor, Anna and Scott, Dianne and Steynor, Anna and Mcclure, Alice},
file = {::},
pages = {22},
publisher = {Future Resilience for African CiTies and Lands (FRACTAL)},
title = {{Transdisciplinary, co-production and co-exploration: integrating knowledge across science, policy and practice in FRACTAL}},
url = {http://www.fractal.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Co-co-trans{\_}March-2017.pdf},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Taylor2012a,
abstract = {The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades...},
author = {Taylor, Karl E. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Meehl, Gerald A.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {485--498},
title = {{An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1},
volume = {93},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Taylor2006,
abstract = {Based on field surveys and analyses of optical spaceborne images (LandSat5, LandSat7), we report recent decline in the areal extent of glaciers in the Rwenzori Mountains of East Africa from 2.01 ± 0.56 km2 in 1987 to 0.96 ± 0.34 km2 in 2003. The spatially uniform loss of glacial cover at lower elevations together with meteorological trends derived from both station and reanalysis data, indicate that increased air temperature is the main driver. Clear trends toward increased air temperatures over the last four decades of ∼0.5°C per decade exist without significant changes in annual precipitation. Extrapolation of trends in glacial recession since 1906 suggests that glaciers in the Rwenzori Mountains will disappear within the next two decades. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.},
author = {Taylor, Richard G. and Mileham, Lucinda and Tindimugaya, Callist and Majugu, Abushen and Muwanga, Andrew and Nakileza, Bob},
doi = {10.1029/2006GL025962},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {doi:10.1029/2006GL025962,http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025962},
month = {may},
number = {10},
pages = {L10402},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Recent glacial recession in the Rwenzori Mountains of East Africa due to rising air temperature}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2006GL025962},
volume = {33},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Tebaldi2018,
abstract = {Using ensembles from the Community Earth System Model {\{}(CESM){\}} under a high and a lower emission scenarios, we investigate changes in statistics of extreme daily temperature. The ensembles provide large samples for a robust application of extreme value theory. We estimate return values and return periods for annual maxima of the daily high and low temperatures as well as the 3-day averages of the same variables in current and future climate. Results indicate statistically significant increases (compared to the reference period of 1996–2005) in extreme temperatures over all land areas as early as 2025 under both scenarios, with statistically significant differences between them becoming pervasive over the globe by 2050. The substantially smaller changes, for all indices, produced under the lower emission case translate into sizeable benefits from emission mitigation: By 2075, in terms of reduced changes in 1-day heat extremes, about 95{\~{}}{\%} of land regions would see benefits of {\{}1{\~{}}{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C{\}} or more under the lower emissions scenario, and 50{\~{}}{\%} or more of the land areas would benefit by at least {\{}2{\~{}}{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C.{\}} 6{\~{}}{\%} of the land area would benefit by {\{}3{\~{}}{\{}$\backslash$textdegree{\}}C{\}} or more in projected extreme minimum temperatures and 13{\~{}}{\%} would benefit by this amount for extreme maximum temperature. Benefits for 3-day metrics are similar. The future frequency of current extremes is also greatly reduced by mitigation: by the end of the century, under {\{}RCP8.5{\}} more than half the land area experiences the current 20-year events every year while only between about 10 and 25{\~{}}{\%} of the area is affected by such severe changes under {\{}RCP4.5.{\}}},
author = {Tebaldi, Claudia and Wehner, Michael F.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1605-5},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {349--361},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1605-5},
volume = {146},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Teichmann2020a,
abstract = {The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25 {\$}{\$}$\backslash$,$\backslash$mathrm {\{}km{\}}{\$}{\$} km (0.22 {\$}{\$}{\^{}}{\{}$\backslash$circ {\}}{\$}{\$} ∘ ) versus 50 {\$}{\$}$\backslash$,$\backslash$mathrm {\{}km{\}}{\$}{\$} km (0.44 {\$}{\$}{\^{}}{\{}$\backslash$circ {\}}{\$}{\$} ∘ )) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.},
author = {Teichmann, Claas and Jacob, Daniela and Remedio, Armelle Reca and Remke, Thomas and Buntemeyer, Lars and Hoffmann, Peter and Kriegsmann, Arne and Lierhammer, Ludwig and B{\"{u}}low, Katharina and Weber, Torsten and Sieck, Kevin and Rechid, Diana and Langendijk, Gaby S. and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo and Ciarlo`, James M. and Raffaele, Francesca and Giuliani, Graziano and Xuejie, Gao and Sines, Taleena Rae and Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham and Das, Sushant and {Di Sante}, Fabio and Pichelli, Emanuela and Glazer, Russel and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Bukovsky, Melissa and Im, Eun-Soon},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {CORDEX,CORDEX-CORE,IPCC reference regions,Regional climate change},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1269--1292},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH},
title = {{Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x},
volume = {57},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Teichmann2013,
author = {Teichmann, Claas and Eggert, Bastian and Elizalde, Alberto and Haensler, Andreas and Jacob, Daniela and Kumar, Pankaj and Moseley, Christopher and Pfeifer, Susanne and Rechid, Diana and Remedio, Armelle and Ries, Hinnerk and Petersen, Juliane and Preuschmann, Swantje and Raub, Thomas and Saeed, Fahad and Sieck, Kevin and Weber, Torsten},
doi = {10.3390/atmos4020214},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {214--236},
title = {{How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/4/2/214},
volume = {4},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Teixeira2013,
author = {Teixeira, Edmar I. and Fischer, Guenther and van Velthuizen, Harrij and Walter, Christof and Ewert, Frank},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.002},
issn = {01681923},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
month = {mar},
pages = {206--215},
title = {{Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168192311002784},
volume = {170},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Tesfaye2017,
author = {Tesfaye, Kindie and Zaidi, P. H. and Gbegbelegbe, Sika and Boeber, Christian and Rahut, Dil Bahadur and Getaneh, Fite and Seetharam, K. and Erenstein, Olaf and Stirling, Clare},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-016-1931-6},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {nov},
number = {3-4},
pages = {959--970},
publisher = {Springer Vienna},
title = {{Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-016-1931-6},
volume = {130},
year = {2017}
}
@article{TESKEY2014,
abstract = {The number and intensity of heat waves has increased and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21(st) Century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photo-oxidative stress increases, leaves abscise, and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change.},
author = {Teskey, Robert and Wertin, Timothy and Bauweraerts, Ingvar and Ameye, Maarten and McGuire, Mary Anne and Steppe, Kathy},
doi = {10.1111/pce.12417},
isbn = {1365-3040 (Electronic)$\backslash$r0140-7791 (Linking)},
issn = {01407791},
journal = {Plant, Cell {\&} Environment},
keywords = {Drought,Genotype,Growth,Heat stress,Photosynthesis,Respiration,Stomatal conductance},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {1699--1712},
pmid = {25065257},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/pce.12417},
volume = {38},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Thakuri2019a,
author = {Thakuri, Sudeep and Dahal, Suchana and Shrestha, Dibas and Guyennon, Nicolas and Romano, Emanuele and Colombo, Nicola and Salerno, Franco},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.06.006},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
month = {nov},
pages = {261--269},
title = {{Elevation-dependent warming of maximum air temperature in Nepal during 1976–2015}},
volume = {228},
year = {2019}
}
@inproceedings{Thepaut2018,
author = {Thepaut, Jean-Noel and Dee, Dick and Engelen, Richard and Pinty, Bernard},
booktitle = {IGARSS 2018 – 2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium},
doi = {10.1109/IGARSS.2018.8518067},
isbn = {978-1-5386-7150-4},
keywords = {Climate Change,Climate Data Records,Copernicus,Copernicus Climate Change Service,Copernicus Programme,Earth,Earth Observation Programme,Earth-system,Essential Climate Variables,Europe,European Union,European citizens,Meteorology,Monitoring,Oceans,Production,Satellites,Sentinels,artificial satellites,atmospheric measuring apparatus,atmospheric techniques,climatology,comprehensive climate information,future climate,information services,networking capabilities,planet Earth,remote sensing,satellite Earth Observation,satellite observing systems,supercomputing networking capabilities},
month = {jul},
pages = {1591--1593},
publisher = {IEEE},
title = {{The Copernicus Programme and its Climate Change Service}},
url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8518067/},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Thiery2020a,
abstract = {Irrigation affects climate conditions - and especially hot extremes - in various regions across the globe. Yet how these climatic effects compare to other anthropogenic forcings is largely unknown. Here we provide observational and model evidence that expanding irrigation has dampened historical anthropogenic warming during hot days, with particularly strong effects over South Asia. We show that irrigation expansion can explain the negative correlation between global observed changes in daytime summer temperatures and present-day irrigation extent. While global warming increases the likelihood of hot extremes almost globally, irrigation can regionally cancel or even reverse the effects of all other forcings combined. Around one billion people (0.79-1.29) currently benefit from this dampened increase in hot extremes because irrigation massively expanded throughout the 20[Formula: see text] century. Our results therefore highlight that irrigation substantially reduced human exposure to warming of hot extremes but question whether this benefit will continue towards the future.},
author = {Thiery, Wim and Visser, Auke J and Fischer, Erich M and Hauser, Mathias and Hirsch, Annette L and Lawrence, David M and Lejeune, Quentin and Davin, Edouard L and Seneviratne, Sonia I},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-14075-4},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature communications},
language = {eng},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {290},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK},
title = {{Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation}},
url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31941885 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6962396/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Thirumalai2017a,
abstract = {In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Ni{\~{n}}o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Ni{\~{n}}o years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Ni{\~{n}}o to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29{\%} of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49{\%} by El Ni{\~{n}}o. These post-Ni{\~{n}}o Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.},
author = {Thirumalai, Kaustubh and DiNezio, Pedro N. and Okumura, Yuko and Deser, Clara},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms15531},
isbn = {2041-1723 (Electronic) 2041-1723 (Linking)},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
month = {aug},
number = {1},
pages = {15531},
pmid = {28585927},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Ni{\~{n}}o and worsened by global warming}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15531 http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15531},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Thober2018,
abstract = {Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over the entirety of Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10{\%} exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from −11{\%} at 1.5 K up to −30{\%} at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes ({\textless} ±10{\%}) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow melt equivalent decreases flood events in this region. Neglecting uncertainties originating from internal climate variability, downscaling technique, and hydrologic model parameters, the contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but have to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.},
author = {Thober, Stephan and Kumar, Rohini and Wanders, Niko and Marx, Andreas and Pan, Ming and Rakovec, Oldrich and Samaniego, Luis and Sheffield, Justin and Wood, Eric F. and Zink, Matthias},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e35},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {1.5 degree global warming,15 degree global warming,Europe,Noah-MP,PCR-GLOBWB,climate change,floods,mHM},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {014003},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e35 http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=1/a=014003?key=crossref.c93f4ad828d9152aa572057fa0c67675 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e35},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Thomas2004,
abstract = {Extinction risk from climate change},
author = {Thomas, Chris D. and Cameron, Alison and Green, Rhys E. and Bakkenes, Michel and Beaumont, Linda J. and Collingham, Yvonne C. and Erasmus, Barend F. N. and de Siqueira, Marinez Ferreira and Grainger, Alan and Hannah, Lee and Hughes, Lesley and Huntley, Brian and van Jaarsveld, Albert S. and Midgley, Guy F. and Miles, Lera and Ortega-Huerta, Miguel A. and {Townsend Peterson}, A. and Phillips, Oliver L. and Williams, Stephen E.},
doi = {10.1038/nature02121},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {jan},
number = {6970},
pages = {145--148},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Extinction risk from climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature02121},
volume = {427},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Thomsen2019,
abstract = {Detailed research has documented gradual changes to biological communities attributed to increases in global average temperatures. However, localized and abrupt temperature anomalies associated with heatwaves may cause more rapid biological changes. We analyzed temperature data from the South Island of New Zealand and investigated whether the hot summer of 2017/18 affected species of bull kelp, Durvillaea antarctica, D. poha, and D. willana. Durvillaea spp. are large iconic seaweeds that inhabit the low intertidal zone of exposed coastlines, where they underpin biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Sea surface temperatures (SST) during the summer of 2017/18 included the strongest marine heatwaves recorded in 38 years of existing oceanic satellite data for this region. Air temperatures were also high, and, coupled with small wave heights, resulted in strong desiccation stress during daytime low tides. Before-After analysis of drone images of four reef platforms (42, 42, 44, and 45°S) was used to evaluate changes to bull kelp over the hot summer. Bull kelp loss varied among species and reefs, with the greatest (100{\%}) loss of D. poha at Pile Bay in Lyttelton Harbor (44°S). In Pile Bay, SST exceeded 23°C and air temperatures exceeded 30°C, while Durvillaea was exposed for up to 3 h per day during low tide. Follow-up surveys showed that all bull kelps were eliminated from Pile Bay, and from all reefs within and immediately outside of Lyttelton Harbor. Following the localized extinction of bull kelp in Pile Bay, the invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida recruited in high densities (average of 120 m -2 ). We conclude that bull kelps are likely to experience additional mortalities in the future because heatwaves are predicted to increase in magnitude and durations. Losses of the endemic D. poha are particularly concerning due to its narrow distributional range.},
author = {Thomsen, Mads S. and Mondardini, Luca and Alestra, Tommaso and Gerrity, Shawn and Tait, Leigh and South, Paul M. and Lilley, Stacie A. and Schiel, David R.},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2019.00084},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
keywords = {Canopy forming seaweed,Endemic species,Extinction,Foundation species,Marine heatwave,Temperature anomaly},
month = {mar},
pages = {84},
publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},
title = {{Local Extinction of Bull Kelp (Durvillaea spp.) Due to a Marine Heatwave}},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00084/full},
volume = {6},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Thorne2017,
author = {Thorne, James H. and Choe, Hyeyeong and Boynton, Ryan M. and Bjorkman, Jacquelyn and Albright, Whitney and Nydick, Koren and Flint, Alan L. and Flint, Lorraine E. and Schwartz, Mark W.},
doi = {10.1002/ecs2.2021},
issn = {21508925},
journal = {Ecosphere},
keywords = {California vegetation,climate change exposure,ecological forecast,natural resource management,policy implications,risk assessment,watershed planning},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {e02021},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{The impact of climate change uncertainty on California's vegetation and adaptation management}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/ecs2.2021},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Tian2019a,
abstract = {Using an observed dataset, we study the changes of surface wind speeds from 1979 to 2016 over the Northern Hemisphere and their impacts on wind power potential. The results show that surface wind speeds were decreasing in the past four decades over most regions in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Europe and Asia. In conjunction with decreasing surface wind speeds, the wind power potential at the typical height of a commercial wind turbine was also declining over the past decades for most regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Approximately 30{\%}, 50{\%} and 80{\%} of the stations lost over 30{\%} of the wind power potential since 1979 in North America, Europe and Asia, respectively. In addition, the evaluation of climate models shows their relatively poor ability to simulate long-term temporal trends of surface winds, indicating the need for enhancing the process that can improve the reliability of climate models for wind energy assessments.},
author = {Tian, Qun and Huang, Gang and Hu, Kaiming and Niyogi, Dev},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.11.027},
issn = {0360-5442},
journal = {Energy},
keywords = {Atmospheric stilling,CMIP5 model simulation,Cumulative change,Long-term temporal trend,Wind energy,Wind power potential},
pages = {1224--1235},
title = {{Observed and global climate model based changes in wind power potential over the Northern Hemisphere during 1979–2016}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421832231X},
volume = {167},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tian2016a,
author = {Tian, Hanqin and Ren, Wei and Tao, Bo and Sun, Ge and Chappelka, Art and Wang, Xiaoke and Pan, Shufen and Yang, Jia and Liu, Jiyuan and S. felzer, Ben and M. melillo, Jerry and Reilly, John},
doi = {10.1002/ehs2.1203},
issn = {2096-4129},
journal = {Ecosystem Health and Sustainability},
keywords = {China food security,climate change,crop yield,drought,tropospheric ozone (O3)},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {e01203},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Climate extremes and ozone pollution: a growing threat to China's food security}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1002/ehs2.1203},
volume = {2},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ting2019a,
abstract = {The ocean and atmosphere in the North Atlantic are coupled through a feedback mechanism that excites a dipole pattern in vertical wind shear (VWS), a metric that strongly controls Atlantic hurricanes. In particular, when tropical VWS is under the weakening phase and thus favorable for increased hurricane activity in the Main Development Region (MDR), a protective barrier of high VWS inhibits hurricane intensification along the U.S. East Coast. Here we show that this pattern is driven mostly by natural decadal variability, but that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing erodes the pattern and degrades the natural barrier along the U.S. coast. Twenty-first century climate model projections show that the increased VWS along the U.S. East Coast during decadal periods of enhanced hurricane activity is substantially reduced by GHG forcing, which allows hurricanes approaching the U.S. coast to intensify more rapidly. The erosion of this natural intensification barrier is especially large following the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (rcp8.5) emission scenario.},
author = {Ting, Mingfang and Kossin, James P. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Li, Cuihua},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44252-w},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {7795},
title = {{Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44252-w},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@misc{Tippett2015,
abstract = {Substantial progress has been made recently relating the large-scale climate system and hazardous convective weather (HCW; tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind), particularly over the USA where there are large societal impacts and a long observational record. Despite observational data limitations, HCW has shown to be influenced by the climate system and the tropical atmosphere via the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation. Analysis of the atmospheric environments favorable to HCW (e.g., convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear) avoids observational and model limitations. While few robust trends are seen over recent decades, future climate projections indicate increased frequency of such environments over the USA, Europe, and Australia, suggesting increased future HCW activity. A recent increase in the year-to-year variability of US tornado occurrence is striking, but not yet understood. Dynamical downscaling to convection-permitting resolutions promises improved understanding of the relationships between large-scale climate and HCW occurrence.},
author = {Tippett, Michael K. and Allen, John T. and Gensini, Vittorio A. and Brooks, Harold E.},
booktitle = {Current Climate Change Reports},
doi = {10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6},
issn = {21986061},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate variability,Hail,Severe thunderstorms,Tornadoes},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {60--73},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Climate and Hazardous Convective Weather}},
volume = {1},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tippett2016,
abstract = {Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were {\$}8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.},
author = {Tippett, Michael K and Lepore, Chiara and Cohen, Joel E},
doi = {10.1126/science.aah7393},
issn = {1095-9203},
journal = {Science},
month = {dec},
number = {6318},
pages = {1419--1423},
pmid = {27934705},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27934705},
volume = {354},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Tobin2016,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within 5{\%} across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15{\%} in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5{\%} in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales.},
author = {Tobin, Isabelle and Jerez, Sonia and Vautard, Robert and Thais, Fran{\c{c}}oise and van Meijgaard, Erik and Prein, Andreas and D{\'{e}}qu{\'{e}}, Michel and Kotlarski, Sven and Maule, Cathrine Fox and Nikulin, Grigory and No{\"{e}}l, Thomas and Teichmann, Claas},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034013},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Europe,climate change impacts,regional climate modelling,wind energy},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {034013},
title = {{Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034013},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Tobin2015,
abstract = {Climate change may alter the geographical pattern and intensity of near-surface winds which are the "fuel" for wind turbines. In a context of fast current and planned development of wind power worldwide, investigating the impacts of climate change on wind power generation is necessary. This study aims at assessing future changes in the potential for wind power generation over the whole Europe and in the effective wind power production from national wind farms operating at the end of 2012 and planned by 2020. For this purpose, a simplified wind power generation model is applied to an ensemble of 15 regional climate projections achieved from 10 Regional Climate Models downscaling six Global Climate Models under the SRES A1B emission scenario from the ENSEMBLES project. The use of a relatively large multi-model ensemble allows the identification of robust changes and the estimation of a range of uncertainties associated with projected changes. We show with a high level of confidence that, under the A1B scenario, over most of Europe, changes in wind power potential will remain within ±15 and ±20 {\%} by mid and late century respectively. Overall, we find a tendency toward a decrease of the wind power potential over Mediterranean areas and an increase over Northern Europe. Changes in multi-year power production will not exceed 5 and 15 {\%} in magnitude at the European and national scale respectively for both wind farms in operation at the end of 2012 and planned by 2020. Therefore, climate change should neither undermine nor favor wind energy development in Europe. However, accounting for climate change effects in particular regions may help optimize the wind power development and energy mix plans.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]},
author = {Tobin, Isabelle and Vautard, Robert and Balog, Irena and Br{\'{e}}on, Fran{\c{c}}ois-Marie and Jerez, Sonia and Ruti, Paolo Michele and Thais, Fran{\c{c}}oise and Vrac, Mathieu and Yiou, Pascal},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-014-1291-0},
isbn = {0165-0009},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {99--112},
title = {{Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1291-0},
volume = {128},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Tobin2018,
abstract = {The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 °C, or even 1.5 °C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe using a consistent modelling approach across the different technologies. We compare the impacts for different global warming scenarios: +1.5 °C, +2 °C and +3 °C. Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10{\%}, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20{\%}. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge.},
author = {Tobin, I. and Greuell, W. and Jerez, S. and Ludwig, F. and Vautard, R. and van Vliet, M T H and Br{\'{e}}on, F-M},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab211},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Electricity generation,climate change impacts,hydropower,solar pv,thermoelectric,wind power},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {044024},
title = {{Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C warming}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=4/a=044024?key=crossref.7132b6b600e244c44cef30e5d9da6a42},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{esd-2019-38,
author = {Todzo, Stella and Bichet, Adeline and Diedhiou, Arona},
doi = {10.5194/esd-11-319-2020},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {1},
pages = {319--328},
title = {{Intensification of the hydrological cycle expected in West Africa over the 21st century}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2019-38/ https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/319/2020/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Toimil2017,
abstract = {This study presents a comprehensive methodology that addresses climate change–induced coastal erosion at the regional scale O (100 km). The use of climate data with high space-time resolution enabled the reconstruction of the shoreline response to cross-shore forcing both historically and throughout the twenty-first century. Cross section–based equilibrium models were combined to assess beach erosion induced by local waves, storm surge, astronomical tide and mean sea-level rise. The approach incorporates the potential impacts that tidal inlets could have on the long-term evolution of adjacent beaches as sink terms in the beaches' budget. The methodology provides probabilistic estimates of coastline recession while accounting for sea level rise uncertainty, both of which are essential aspects for establishing adaptation priorities and efficient fund allocation. The outlined assessment was undertaken on 57 sandy beaches along a 345 km coastline stretch in Asturias, a region in the northwest of Spain open to the Atlantic.},
author = {Toimil, Alexandra and Losada, Inigo J. and Camus, Paula and D{\'{i}}az-Simal, Pedro},
doi = {10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.004},
issn = {03783839},
journal = {Coastal Engineering},
number = {August},
pages = {106--122},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Managing coastal erosion under climate change at the regional scale}},
volume = {128},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Tomasek2017,
author = {Tomasek, Bradley J. and Williams, Martin M. and Davis, Adam S.},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0172301},
editor = {Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose Luis},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {e0172301},
title = {{Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems}},
url = {http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172301},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Tong2017,
abstract = {Abstract Climate models have consistently projected a drying trend in the southwestern United States, aiding speculation of increasing dust storms in this region. Long-term climatology is essential to documenting the dust trend and its response to climate variability. We have reconstructed long-term dust climatology in the western United States, based on a comprehensive dust identification method and continuous aerosol observations from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network. We report here direct evidence of rapid intensification of dust storm activity over American deserts in the past decades (1988–2011), in contrast to reported decreasing trends in Asia and Africa. The frequency of windblown dust storms has increased 240{\%} from 1990s to 2000s. This dust trend is associated with large-scale variations of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, with the strongest correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We further investigate the relationship between dust and Valley fever, a fast-rising infectious disease caused by inhaling soil-dwelling fungus (Coccidioides immitis and C. posadasii) in the southwestern United States. The frequency of dust storms is found to be correlated with Valley fever incidences, with a coefficient (r) comparable to or stronger than that with other factors believed to control the disease in two endemic centers (Maricopa and Pima County, Arizona).},
author = {Tong, Daniel Q. and Wang, Julian X. L. and Gill, Thomas E. and Lei, Hang and Wang, Binyu},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073524},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Valley fever,aerosol,air quality,climate,dust,health},
month = {may},
number = {9},
pages = {4304--4312},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Intensified dust storm activity and Valley fever infection in the southwestern United States}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL073524},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Torregrosa2014,
author = {Torregrosa, Alicia and O'Brien, Travis A. and Faloona, Ian C.},
doi = {10.1002/2014EO500001},
file = {::},
issn = {00963941},
journal = {Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union},
keywords = {climatology,fog,marine stratus,system dynamics},
month = {dec},
number = {50},
pages = {473--474},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Coastal Fog, Climate Change, and the Environment}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014EO500001},
volume = {95},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Tous2016,
author = {Tous, M. and Zappa, G. and Romero, R. and Shaffrey, L. and Vidale, P. L.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {1913--1924},
title = {{Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2},
volume = {47},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Townhill2018,
abstract = {Harmful algae can cause death in fish, shellfish, marine mammals, and humans, via their toxins or from effects associated with their sheer quantity. There are many species, which cause a variety of problems around north-west Europe, and the frequency and distribution of algal blooms have altered in the recent past. Species distribution modelling was used to understand how harmful algal species may respond in the future to climate change, by considering environmental preferences and how these may shift. Most distribution studies to date use low resolution global model outputs. In this study, high resolution, downscaled shelf seas climate projections for the north-west European shelf were nested within lower resolution global projections, to understand how the distribution of harmful algae may change by the mid to end of century. Projections suggest that the habitat of most species (defined by temperature, salinity, depth, and stratification) will shift north this century, with suitability increasing in the central and northern North Sea. An increase in occurrence here might lead to more frequent detrimental blooms if wind, irradiance and nutrient levels are also suitable. Prioritizing monitoring of species in these susceptible areas could help in establishing early-warning systems for aquaculture and health protection schemes.},
author = {Townhill, Bryony L and Tinker, Jonathan and Jones, Miranda and Pitois, Sophie and Creach, Veronique and Simpson, Stephen D and Dye, Stephen and Bear, Elizabeth and Pinnegar, John K},
doi = {10.1093/icesjms/fsy113},
editor = {Ji, Rubao},
issn = {1054-3139},
journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
keywords = {aquaculture,bioclimatology,dispersal,habitat,impacts,toxicity},
month = {dec},
number = {6},
pages = {1882--1893},
publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},
title = {{Harmful algal blooms and climate change: exploring future distribution changes}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/75/6/1882/5094977},
volume = {75},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Tramblay2019,
author = {Tramblay, Yves and Mimeau, Louise and Neppel, Luc and Vinet, Freddy and Sauquet, Eric},
doi = {10.5194/hess-23-4419-2019},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {11},
pages = {4419--4431},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Detection and attribution of flood trends in Mediterranean basins}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/23/4419/2019/},
volume = {23},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Tramblay2020a,
abstract = {Floods represent a major natural hazard in Africa, causing over 27 000 fatalities during the period 1950–2019. Despite its relevance, little is known about changes in flood hazard across this continent due to the lack of long-term high-quality streamflow records. Here we use a newly assembled discharge dataset of African rivers, and provide a long-term comprehensive view of flood hazard across this continent. We show that the annual maximum peak discharge does not exhibit a monotonic pattern, but overall decreasing trends prior to 1980 and increasing trends afterwards, especially in western and southern Africa. Our results indicate that these differing trends can be ascribed to changes in extreme precipitation around 1980. Moreover, these changes in intense precipitation pre/post 1980 are due to increased thunderstorm activity associated with enhanced convective available potential energy and zonal vertical shear driven by cooling temperature trends over western Africa. The changes in flood hazard in southern Africa can be tied to changes in Namibia low-level jet. Therefore, the observed increase in flooding since 1980 suggests that it would be beneficial to improve the monitoring, modeling and communication of flood hazard to reduce the socio-economic impacts of these events.},
author = {Tramblay, Yves and Villarini, Gabriele and Zhang, Wei},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abb90b},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {1040b5},
title = {{Observed changes in flood hazard in Africa}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abb90b},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Trapp2019,
abstract = {The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail ([Formula: see text]35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail ([Formula: see text]50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail ([Formula: see text]20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.},
author = {Trapp, Robert J. and Hoogewind, Kimberly A. and Lasher-Trapp, Sonia},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0740.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {5493--5509},
title = {{Future Changes in Hail Occurrence in the United States Determined through Convection-Permitting Dynamical Downscaling}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0740.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Trauernicht2015,
abstract = {Wildfire is a major threat to natural resources and native species in Hawai'i, but the frequency and extent of wildfires across the archipelago has not been well quantified. Our objective was to summarize the available wildfire data for Hawai'i and synthesize the social and ecological dimensions of wildfire drivers, impacts, and management responses. We constructed a 110-yr span of wildfire records for the state of Hawai'i to examine historical trends (1904-2011) and summarized relationships between contemporary wildfire occurrence (2005-2011) and land use/land cover types and human population. Total area burned statewide increased more than fourfold from 1904 to 1959 to peaks in the 1960s-1970s and mid-1990s to present. From 2005 to 2011, on average, 1,007 wildfires were reported across the state per year (±77 SE), burning an average of 8,427 ha yr-1 (±2,394 SE). Most fires (95{\%}) were {\textless}4 ha, while most area burned (93{\%}) was attributed to fires ≥40 ha. Ignition frequency was positively correlated with human population across islands. Wildfires were most frequent in developed areas, but most areas burned occurred in dry nonnative grasslands and shrublands that currently compose 24{\%} of Hawai'i's total land cover. These grass-dominated landscapes allow wildfires to propagate rapidly from areas of high ignition frequencies into the forested margins of the state's watersheds, placing native habitat, watershed integrity, and human safety at risk. There is an urgent need to better assess fire risk and impacts at landscape scales and increase the integration of prefire planning and prevention into existing land management goals.},
author = {Trauernicht, Clay and Pickett, Elizabeth and Giardina, Christian P. and Litton, Creighton M. and Cordell, Susan and Beavers, Andrew},
doi = {10.2984/69.4.1},
issn = {0030-8870},
journal = {Pacific Science},
number = {4},
pages = {427--444},
title = {{The Contemporary Scale and Context of Wildfire in Hawai‘i}},
volume = {69},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Trauernicht2019,
abstract = {The area burned annually by wildland fire in Hawaii has increased fourfold in recent decades. The archipelago's novel fuel types and climatic heterogeneity pose significant challenges for fire risk assessment and fire management. Probability-based fire occurrence models using historical wildfire records provide a means to assess and attribute fire risk in regions of the world like Hawaii where investment in fire science is limited. This research used generalized additive models to 1) assess the relative contribution of vegetation, climate, and human-caused ignitions to the probability of fire in the northwest quadrant of Hawaii Island and 2) compare how landscape flammability varies due to interannual rainfall variability versus projected changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR) and temperature. Annual fire probability was highest for grasslands and peaked at drier conditions (0.04 at 450 mm MAR) when compared with shrublands (0.03 at 650 mm MAR) and forest (0.015 at 600 mm MAR). Excess rainfall the year prior to fire occurrence increased fire risk across grasslands, and thus overall fire probability, more so than drought the year that fire occurred. Drying and warming trends for the region under projected climate change increased maximum values of fire probability by as much as 375{\%} and shifted areas of peak landscape flammability to higher elevation. Model predictions under future climate also indicate the largest changes in landscape flammability will happen by mid-Century. The influence of antecedent wet years on fire risk can improve near-term predictions of fire risk in Hawaii while climate projections indicate that fire management will need to be prioritized at upper elevations where high value natural resources are concentrated.},
author = {Trauernicht, Clay},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.347},
issn = {18791026},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
keywords = {Climate change,Flammability,Hawaiian Islands,Rainfall variability,Risk assessment,Wildland fire},
number = {November},
pages = {459--469},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Vegetation–Rainfall interactions reveal how climate variability and climate change alter spatial patterns of wildland fire probability on Big Island, Hawaii}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.347},
volume = {650},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Trewin2020,
abstract = {A new version of the long-term Australian temperature data set, known as ACORN-SAT (Australian Climate Observations Reference Network—Surface Air Temperature), has been developed. ACORN-SAT includes homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 112 locations across Australia, encompassing the period from 1910 to the present, with 60 of the locations having data for the full 1910–2018 period. Homogenization is achieved using a percentile-matching methodology with a number of improvements beyond practices used in previous versions, including more effective detection and removal of potentially inhomogeneous reference stations and an enhanced breakpoint detection methodology. Explicit corrections have also been introduced for a change in instrument screen size, whilst an assessment has found that the transition from manual to automatic instruments and changes in effective response time of automatic instruments have had a negligible impact on the data. Adjustments associated with documented site moves from in-town to out-of-town locations are predominantly negative, particularly for minimum temperature, with other adjustments showing no strong bias towards either positive or negative values. The new data set shows slightly stronger warming (0.12°C per decade in mean temperature over the 1910–2016 period) than either the previous ACORN-SAT version (0.10°C) or the unhomogenized gridded data (0.08°C), primarily due to more effective treatment of systematic moves of sites out of towns and the removal of a rounding bias in the version 1 methodology.},
author = {Trewin, Blair and Braganza, Karl and Fawcett, Robert and Grainger, Simon and Jovanovic, Branislava and Jones, David and Martin, David and Smalley, Robert and Webb, Vanessa},
doi = {10.1002/gdj3.95},
issn = {2049-6060},
journal = {Geoscience Data Journal},
keywords = {Australia,long-term data set,temperature},
month = {nov},
number = {2},
pages = {149--169},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Ltd},
title = {{An updated long‐term homogenized daily temperature data set for Australia}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/gdj3.95 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gdj3.95},
volume = {7},
year = {2020}
}
@article{TRIET2020140596,
abstract = {The annual flood pulse of the Mekong River is crucial to sustain agriculture production, nutrition, and the livelihood of millions of people living in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta (VMD). However, climate change impacts on precipitation, temperature and sea-level combined with land subsidence, upstream hydropower development, and water infrastructures (i.e. high-dykes construction) are altering the hydrological regime of the VMD. This study investigates future changes in flood hazard and agricultural production caused by these different scales of human-induced stresses. A quasi- two-dimensional (quasi-2D) hydrodynamic model was used to simulate eight scenarios representing the individual and compound impacts of these drivers for a baseline (1971–2000) and future (2036–2065) period. The scenarios map the most likely future pathway of climate change (RCP 4.5) combined with the best available Mekong upstream hydropower development, and land subsidence scenarios as well as the current delta development plan. We found that sea-level rise and land subsidence would cause the highest changes in flood hazard and damage to rice crop, followed by hydropower and climate change impacts. Expansion of high-dyke areas in two northernmost delta provinces (An Giang and Dong Thap) would have the smallest impact. The combination of all modelled drivers is projected to increase delta inundation extent by 20{\%}, accompanied with prolonging submergence of 1–2 months, and 2–3 times increase in annual flood damage to rice crops in the flood-prone areas of the VMD. These findings of likely increasing risk of tidal induced flood hazard and damage call for well-planned adaptation and mitigation measures, both structural and non-structural.},
author = {Triet, Nguyen Van Khanh and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Hoang, Long Phi and Duy, Nguyen Le and Tran, Dung Duc and Anh, Tran Tuan and Kummu, Matti and Merz, Bruno and Apel, Heiko},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140596},
issn = {00489697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
keywords = {Climate change,Hydrodynamic modelling,Hydropower,Land subsidence,Sea-level rise},
month = {nov},
pages = {140596},
title = {{Future projections of flood dynamics in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720341188 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969720341188},
volume = {742},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Tripathi2016,
abstract = {Due to the adverse impacts of climate change on earth systems the research in this field has been profoundly taken a part in all scientific arenas since last few decades. The deleterious impacts of climate change on agricultural production are challenging the food security of the world in terms of quantity and quality both. Wheat, rice, maize, vegetables, fruits and fish-food provide food security for more than half of the world and are under immense pressure of changing climate. This review is an overview of the significant impacts associated with climate change on these food sources. In present synthesis, various phenological, physiological, biochemical and reproductive responses in major food crops have been summarized emphasizing the vulnerable growth and development stages. Winter and summer sensitivity responses, and morpho-biochemical acclimation patterns have also been summarized. Sustenance in wheat and rice production is evident but impacts of increasing temperatures are negating this on bio-physiological level impacts. Maize crops are experiencing more impacts on yield as compared to wheat and rice. Fruits and vegetable production is highly vulnerable to climate change at their reproductive stages and also due to more disease prevalence. Fisheries as a critical animal food source; is in extreme danger as apparent changes in their habitat and unmanageable environmental conditions are producing extreme losses. This review also provides an account of stress responses and useful adaptive measures. This synthesis may be helpful in understanding manifold dimensions and interactions of climate change impacts on selected major food sources of the world.},
author = {Tripathi, Ashutosh and Tripathi, Durgesh Kumar and Chauhan, D.K. and Kumar, Niraj and Singh, G.S.},
doi = {10.1016/j.agee.2015.09.034},
isbn = {01678809},
issn = {01678809},
journal = {Agriculture, Ecosystems {\&} Environment},
month = {jan},
pages = {356--373},
title = {{Paradigms of climate change impacts on some major food sources of the world: A review on current knowledge and future prospects}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0167880915300992 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0167880915300992},
volume = {216},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Trnka2014,
abstract = {Studies into the effects of climate change on crop yields have tended to focus on the average state of the climate. Now, research into the effects of adverse weather events on wheat yields in Europe suggests that the probability of single and multiple adverse events occurring within a season is expected to increase substantially by the year 2060.},
author = {Trnka, Miroslav and R{\"{o}}tter, Reimund P. and Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita and Kersebaum, Kurt Christian and Olesen, J{\o}rgen E. and {\v{Z}}alud, Zden{\v{e}}k and Semenov, Mikhail A.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2242},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Agroecology,Climate,change impacts},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {637--643},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2242},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Trnka2019,
abstract = {Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world's entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60{\%} of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15{\%} today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.},
author = {Trnka, Miroslav and Feng, Song and Semenov, Mikhail A. and Olesen, J{\o}rgen E. and Kersebaum, Kurt Christian and R{\"{o}}tter, Reimund P. and Semer{\'{a}}dov{\'{a}}, Daniela and Klem, Karel and Huang, Wei and Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita and Hlavinka, Petr and Meitner, Jan and Balek, Jan and Havl{\'{i}}k, Petr and B{\"{u}}ntgen, Ulf},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aau2406},
issn = {2375-2548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {eaau2406},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas}},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aau2406},
volume = {5},
year = {2019}
}
@incollection{Troccoli2018,
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Troccoli, Alberto},
booktitle = {Weather {\&} Climate Services for the Energy Industry},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-68418-5_2},
editor = {Troccoli, A.},
isbn = {9783319684185},
keywords = {commercial value,customer,financial service,innovation,marketing approach,stakeholder,transparency,user},
pages = {13--25},
publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan},
title = {{Achieving Valuable Weather and Climate Services}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-68418-5{\_}2},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Troccoli2018a,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) has produced, in close collaboration with prospective users, a proof-of-concept climate service, or Demonstrator, designed to enable the energy industry and policy makers assess how well different energy supply mixes in Europe will meet demand, over different time horizons (from seasonal to long-term decadal planning), focusing on the role climate has on the mixes. The concept of C3S ECEM, its methodology and some results are presented here. The first part focuses on the construction of reference data sets for climate variables based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Subsequently, energy variables were created by transforming the bias-adjusted climate variables using a combination of statistical and physically-based models. A comprehensive set of measured energy supply and demand data was also collected, in order to assess the robustness of the conversion to energy variables. Climate and energy data have been produced both for the historical period (1979–2016) and for future projections (from 1981 to 2100, to also include a past reference period, but focusing on the 30 year period 2035–2065). The skill of current seasonal forecast systems for climate and energy variables has also been assessed. The C3S ECEM project was designed to provide ample opportunities for stakeholders to convey their needs and expectations, and assist in the development of a suitable Demonstrator. This is the tool that collects the output produced by C3S ECEM and presents it in a user-friendly and interactive format, and it therefore constitutes the essence of the C3S ECEM proof-of-concept climate service.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {Troccoli, Alberto and Goodess, Clare and Jones, Phil and Penny, Lesley and Dorling, Steve and Harpham, Colin and Dubus, Laurent and Parey, Sylvie and Claudel, Sandra and Khong, Duc-Huy and Bett, Philip E. and Thornton, Hazel and Ranchin, Thierry and Wald, Lucien and Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie and {De Felice}, Matteo and Brayshaw, David and Suckling, Emma and Percy, Barbara and Blower, Jon},
doi = {10.5194/asr-15-191-2018},
issn = {1992-0636},
journal = {Advances in Science and Research},
month = {aug},
pages = {191--205},
title = {{Creating a proof-of-concept climate service to assess future renewable energy mixes in Europe: An overview of the C3S ECEM project}},
url = {https://www.adv-sci-res.net/15/191/2018/},
volume = {15},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Troccoli2012,
abstract = {Accurate estimates of long-term linear trends of wind speed provide a useful indicator for circulation changes in the atmosphere and are invaluable for the planning and financing of sectors such as wind energy. Here a large number of wind observations over Australia and reanalysis products are analyzed to compute such trends. After a thorough quality control of the observations, it is found that the wind speed trends for 1975–2006 and 1989–2006 over Australia are sensitive to the height of the station: they are largely negative for the 2-m data but are predominantly positive for the 10-m data. The mean relative trend at 2 m is 20.10 6 0.03{\%}yr21 (20.3660.04{\%}yr21) for the 1975–2006 (1989–2006)period,whereas at 10 mit is 0.9060.03{\%}yr21 (0.69 6 0.04{\%} yr21) for the 1975–2006 (1989–2006) period. Also, at 10 m light winds tend to increase more rapidly than the mean winds, whereas strong winds increase less rapidly than the mean winds; at 2 m the trends in both light and strong winds vary in line with the mean winds. It was found that a qualitative link could be established between the observed features in the linear trends and some atmospheric circulation indicators (mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa, and geopotential at 850 hPa), particularly for the 10-mobservations. Further, the magnitude of the trend is also sensitive to the period selected, being closer to zero when a very long period, 1948–2006, is considered. As a consequence, changes in the atmospheric circulation on climatic time scales appear unlikely.},
author = {Troccoli, Alberto and Muller, Karl and Coppin, Peter and Davy, Robert and Russell, Chris and Hirsch, Annette L.},
doi = {10.1175/2011JCLI4198.1},
isbn = {0894-8755},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmospheric circulation,Australia,Climate sensitivity,Trends,Wind},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {170--183},
title = {{Long-term wind speed trends over Australia}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011JCLI4198.1},
volume = {25},
year = {2012}
}
@incollection{Trtanj2016,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Trtanj, J. and Jantarasami, L. and Brunkard, J. and Collier, T. and Jacobs, J. and Lipp, E. and McLellan, S. and Moore, S. and Paerl, H. and Ravenscroft, J. and Sengco, M. and Thurston, J.},
booktitle = {The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment},
doi = {10.7930/J03F4MH4},
pages = {157--188},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Ch. 6: Climate Impacts on Water-Related Illness}},
url = {https://health2016.globalchange.gov/downloads{\#}water-related-illness},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Turco2018a,
abstract = {The observed trend towards warmer and drier conditions in southern Europe is projected to continue in the next decades, possibly leading to increased risk of large fires. However, an assessment of climate change impacts on fires at and above the 1.5 °C Paris target is still missing. Here, we estimate future summer burned area in Mediterranean Europe under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming scenarios, accounting for possible modifications of climate-fire relationships under changed climatic conditions owing to productivity alterations. We found that such modifications could be beneficial, roughly halving the fire-intensifying signals. In any case, the burned area is robustly projected to increase. The higher the warming level is, the larger is the increase of burned area, ranging from {\~{}}40{\%} to {\~{}}100{\%} across the scenarios. Our results indicate that significant benefits would be obtained if warming were limited to well below 2 °C.},
author = {Turco, Marco and Rosa-C{\'{a}}novas, Juan Jos{\'{e}} and Bedia, Joaqu{\'{i}}n and Jerez, Sonia and Mont{\'{a}}vez, Juan Pedro and Llasat, Maria Carmen and Provenzale, Antonello},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-06358-z},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Climate,Natural hazards,Projection and prediction,change impacts},
language = {eng},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {3821},
pmid = {30279564},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK},
title = {{Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate–fire models}},
url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30279564 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6168540/ http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06358-z https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{doi:10.1142/S057856341740006X,
author = {Udo, Keiko and Takeda, Yuriko},
doi = {10.1142/S057856341740006X},
journal = {Coastal Engineering Journal},
number = {2},
pages = {1740006--1740016},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Projections of Future Beach Loss in Japan Due to Sea-Level Rise and Uncertainties in Projected Beach Loss}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1142/S057856341740006X},
volume = {59},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Islam2017a,
abstract = {Changes in air temperature and precipitation can modify snowmelt-driven runoff in snowmelt-dominated regimes. This study focuses on climate change impacts on the snow hydrology of the Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Statistically downscaled forcing datasets based on 12 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to drive VIC for two 30-yr time periods, a historical baseline (1980–2009) and future projections (2040–69: 2050s), under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The ensemble-based VIC simulations reveal widespread and regionally coherent spatial changes in snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow cover over the FRB by the 2050s. While the mean precipitation is projected to increase slightly, the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is projected to decrease by nearly 50{\%} in the 2050s compared to the baseline. Snow accumulation and snow-covered...},
author = {ul Islam, Siraj and D{\'{e}}ry, Stephen J. and Werner, Arelia T.},
doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-16-0012.1},
issn = {1525-755X},
journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {473--496},
title = {{Future Climate Change Impacts on Snow and Water Resources of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia}},
volume = {18},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Underwood2017,
abstract = {The selection of materials for road construction in the United States is based on assumptions of a stationary climate. With increasing temperatures, upholding these practices could add up to US{\$}26.3 billion in US-wide maintenance costs by 2040 under RCP8.5.},
author = {Underwood, B. Shane and Guido, Zack and Gudipudi, Padmini and Feinberg, Yarden},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3390},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Civil engineering,Climate,Projection and prediction,change impacts},
month = {sep},
number = {10},
pages = {704--707},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3390},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Undorf2018a,
author = {Undorf, S. and Bollasina, M. A. and Booth, B. B. B. and Hegerl, G. C.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079970},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {11930--11940},
title = {{Contrasting the Effects of the 1850–1975 Increase in Sulphate Aerosols from North America and Europe on the Atlantic in the CESM}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2018GL079970},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{UNESCAP2018,
abstract = {This report—Sand and Dust Storms in Asia and the Pacific: Opportunities for Regional Cooperation and Action—analyses potential drivers, points to the risk of problem areas and identifies gaps in information, cooperation and policy action to enhance the science-based understanding of the phenomenon among policymakers. It aims to support the development of adaptation and mitigation policies related to sand and dust storm at the regional and national levels.},
address = {Bangkok, Thailand},
author = {UNESCAP},
pages = {112},
publisher = {United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP)},
series = {ST/ESCAP/2837},
title = {{Sand and Dust Storms in Asia and the Pacific: Opportunities for Regional Cooperation and Action}},
url = {https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/UNESCAP SDS Report{\_}1.pdf},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{UNISDR2015a,
abstract = {UNISDR is grateful to the organizations whose logos are shown below for their contributions to the pro-duction of the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. In addition, financial resourc-es were also generously made available by the European Commission (Directorate-General for Humani-tarian Aid and Civil Protection, and Directorate-General for Development and Cooperation), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and by the Government of the United States of America.},
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {UNISDR},
isbn = {978-92-1-132042-8},
pages = {316},
publisher = {United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)},
title = {{Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management. Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction}},
url = {https://www.undrr.org/publication/global-assessment-report-disaster-risk-reduction-2015},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Unterberger2018,
abstract = {Spring frosts, as experienced in Europe in April 2016 and 2017, pose a considerable risk to agricultural production, with the potential to cause significant damages to agricultural yields. Meteorological blocking events (stable high-pressure systems) have been shown to be one of the factors that trigger cold spells in spring. While current knowledge does not allow for drawing conclusions as to any change in future frequency and duration of blocking episodes due to climate change, the combination of their stable occurrence with the biological system under a warming trend can lead to economic damage increases. To evaluate future frost risk for apple producers in south-eastern Styria, we combine a phenological sequential model with highly resolved climate projections for Austria. Our model projects a mean advance of blooming of –1.6 ± 0.9 days per decade, shifting the bloom onset towards early April by the end of the 21st century. Our findings indicate that overall frost risk for apple cultures will remain in a warmer climate and potentially even increase due to a stronger connection between blocking and cold spells in early spring that can be identified from observational data. To prospectively deal with frost risk, measures are needed that either stabilize crop yields or ensure farmers' income by other means. We identify appropriate adaptation measures and relate their costs to the potential frost risk increase. Even if applied successfully, the costs of these measures in combination with future residual damages represent additional climate change related costs.},
author = {Unterberger, Christian and Brunner, Lukas and Nabernegg, Stefan and Steininger, Karl W. and Steiner, Andrea K. and Stabentheiner, Edith and Monschein, Stephan and Truhetz, Heimo},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0200201},
editor = {Delzon, Sylvain},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {e0200201},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
title = {{Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate}},
url = {https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0200201},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Upperman2017,
abstract = {BACKGROUND
Warmer temperature can alter seasonality of pollen as well as pollen concentration, and may impact allergic diseases such as hay fever. Recent studies suggest that extreme heat events will likely increase in frequency, intensity, and duration in coming decades in response to changing climate. 

OBJECTIVE
The overall objective of this study was to investigate if extreme heat events are associated with hay fever. 

METHODS
We linked National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 1997 to 2013 (n = 505,386 respondents) with extreme heat event data, defined as days when daily maximum temperature (TMAX) exceeded the 95th percentile values of TMAX for a 30-year reference period (1960-1989). We used logistic regression to investigate the associations between exposure to annual and seasonal extreme heat events and adult hay fever prevalence among the NHIS respondents. 

RESULTS
During 1997-2013, hay fever prevalence among adults 18 years and older was 8.43{\%}. Age, race/ethnicity, poverty status, education, and sex were significantly associated with hay fever status. We observed that adults in the highest quartile of exposure to extreme heat events had a 7{\%} increased odds of hay fever compared with those in the lowest quartile of exposure (odds ratios: 1.07, 95{\%} confidence interval: 1.02-1.11). This relationship was more pronounced for extreme heat events that occurred during spring season, with evidence of an exposure-response relationship (Ptrend {\textless} .01). 

CONCLUSIONS
Our data suggest that exposure to extreme heat events is associated with increased prevalence of hay fever among US adults.},
author = {Upperman, Crystal Romeo and Parker, Jennifer D. and Akinbami, Lara J. and Jiang, Chengsheng and He, Xin and Murtugudde, Raghuram and Curriero, Frank C. and Ziska, Lewis and Sapkota, Amir},
doi = {10.1016/j.jaip.2016.09.016},
issn = {2213-2198},
journal = {The Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In Practice},
month = {mar},
number = {2},
pages = {435--441.e2},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Exposure to Extreme Heat Events Is Associated with Increased Hay Fever Prevalence among Nationally Representative Sample of US Adults: 1997-2013}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2213219816304135},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Urban2015,
abstract = {At the Copenhagen conference our leaders failed to agree on a course of firm action against climate change. We present three articles on the post-Copenhagen world. In the first of them, Richard Chandler, Jonathan Rougier and Mat Collins describe statistical work that still needs to be done.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {cs/9605103},
author = {Urban, Mark C.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaa4984},
eprint = {9605103},
isbn = {1740-9713},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {may},
number = {6234},
pages = {571--573},
pmid = {20448167},
primaryClass = {cs},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Accelerating extinction risk from climate change}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25931559 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aaa4984},
volume = {348},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Urbieta2019,
abstract = {Fire activity has decreased in the last decades in Spain as a whole and in most provinces. However, fire risk factors have increased. Wildfires are burning preferentially treeless areas. Flammable pine areas burn less, while the less flammable oak forests burn more. This decreasing fire activity coincides with increasing fire suppression resources.},
author = {Urbieta, Itziar R and Franquesa, Mag{\'{i}} and Viedma, Olga and Moreno, Jos{\'{e}} M},
doi = {10.1007/s13595-019-0874-3},
issn = {1297-966X},
journal = {Annals of Forest Science},
number = {3},
pages = {90},
title = {{Fire activity and burned forest lands decreased during the last three decades in Spain}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-019-0874-3},
volume = {76},
year = {2019}
}
@techreport{UribeBotero2015,
author = {{Uribe Botero}, Eduardo},
pages = {84},
publisher = {Comisi{\'{o}}n Econ{\'{o}}mica para Am{\'{e}}rica Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL)},
title = {{El cambio clim{\'{a}}tico y sus efectos en la biodiversidad en Am{\'{e}}rica Latina}},
url = {https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/39855-cambio-climatico-sus-efectos-la-biodiversidad-america-latina},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Urrutia-Jalabert2018a,
abstract = {This paper evaluates the relationship between fire occurrence (number and burned area) and climate variability (precipitation and maximum temperatures) across central and south-central Chile (32°–43° S) during recent decades (1976–2013). This region sustains the largest proportion of the Chilean population, contains ecologically important remnants of endemic ecosystems, the largest extension of forest exotic plantations, and concentrates most of the fire activity in the country. Fire activity in central Chile was mainly associated with above-average precipitation during winter of the previous year and with dry conditions during spring to summer. The later association was particularly strong in the southern, wetter part of the study region. Maximum temperature had a positive significant relationship with burned area across the study region, with stronger correlations toward the south. Fires in central Chile were significantly related to El Ni{\~{n}}o–Southern Oscillation, through rainfall anomalies during the year previous to the fire season. The Antarctic Oscillation during winter through summer was positively related to fires across the study area due to drier/warmer conditions associated with the positive polarity of this oscillation. Climate change projections for the region reveal an all-season decrease in precipitation and increases in temperature, that may likely result in an increment of the occurrence and the area affected by fires, as it has been observed during a multi-year drought afflicting central Chile since 2010.},
author = {Urrutia-Jalabert, Roc{\'{i}}o and Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Mauro E. and Gonz{\'{a}}lez-Reyes, {\'{A}}lvaro and Lara, Antonio and Garreaud, Ren{\'{e}}},
doi = {10.1002/ecs2.2171},
issn = {21508925},
journal = {Ecosphere},
number = {4},
title = {{Climate variability and forest fires in central and south-central Chile}},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{USEPA2016,
author = {{US EPA}},
pages = {92},
publisher = {United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA)},
series = {EPA 430-R-16-004},
title = {{Climate change indicators in the United States 2016. 4th Edition}},
url = {https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-08/documents/climate{\_}indicators{\_}2016.pdf},
year = {2016}
}
@techreport{USGCRP2018,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {USGCRP},
doi = {10.7930/NCA4.2018},
editor = {Reidmiller, D.R. and Avery, C.W. and Easterling, D.R. and Kunkel, K.E. and Lewis, K.L.M. and Maycock, T.K. and Stewart, B.C.},
pages = {1515},
publisher = {US. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II}},
url = {https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{Wuebbles2017,
abstract = {New observations and new research have increased our understanding of past, current, and future climate change since the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014. This Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is designed to capture that new information and build on the existing body of science in order to summarize the current state of knowledge and provide the scientific foundation for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). Since NCA3, stronger evidence has emerged for continuing, rapid, human-caused warming of the global atmosphere and ocean. This report concludes that “it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.” The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, the three warmest years on record for the globe, and continued decline in arctic sea ice. These trends are expected to continue in the future over climate (multidecadal) timescales. Significant advances have also been made in our understanding of extreme weather events and how they relate to increasing global temperatures and associated climate changes. Since 1980, the cost of extreme events for the United States has exceeded {\$}1.1 trillion; therefore, better understanding of the frequency and severity of these events in the context of a changing climate is warranted. Periodically taking stock of the current state of knowledge about climate change and putting new weather extremes, changes in sea ice, increases in ocean temperatures, and ocean acidification into context ensures that rigorous, scientifically-based information is available to inform dialogue and decisions at every level. This climate science report serves as the climate science foundation of the NCA4 and is generally intended for those who have a technical background in climate science. In this Executive Summary, gray boxes present highlights of the main report. These are followed by related points and selected figures providing more scientific details. The summary material on each topic presents the most salient points of chapter findings and therefore represents only a subset of the report's content. For more details, the reader is referred to the individual chapters. This report discusses climate trends and findings at several scales: global, nationwide for the United States, and for ten specific U.S. regions (shown in Figure 1 in the Guide to the Report). A statement of scientific confidence also follows each point in the Executive Summary. The confidence scale is described in the Guide to the Report. At the end of the Executive Summary and in Chapter 1: Our Globally Changing Climate, there is also a summary box highlighting the most notable advances and topics since NCA3 and since the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report.},
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {USGCRP},
booktitle = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
doi = {10.7930/J0J964J6},
editor = {Wuebbles, D.J. and Fahey, D.W. and Hibbard, K.A. and Dokken, D.J. and Stewart, B.C. and Maycock, T.K.},
pages = {470},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I}},
url = {https://science2017.globalchange.gov/},
year = {2017}
}
@incollection{Vaidya2019,
abstract = {The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH)—covering more than four million square kilometres from Afghanistan to Myanmar—is one of the world's most ecologically diverse mountain biomes, with extreme variations in vegetation. It is also one of the most hazard-prone. Because of its steep terrain, high seismicity, fragile geological formation, and intense and highly variable precipitation, the HKH is especially vulnerable to floods, landslides, avalanches, and earthquakes (well-established).},
address = {Cham},
author = {Vaidya, Ramesh Ananda and Shrestha, Mandira Singh and Nasab, Nusrat and Gurung, Deo Raj and Kozo, Nagami and Pradhan, Neera Shrestha and Wasson, Robert James},
booktitle = {The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_11},
editor = {Wester, Philippus and Mishra, Arabinda and Mukherji, Aditi and Shrestha, Arun Bhakta},
isbn = {978-3-319-92288-1},
pages = {389--419},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Disaster Risk Reduction and Building Resilience in the Hindu Kush Himalaya}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1{\_}11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{ValMartin2015,
abstract = {Abstract. We use a global coupled chemistry–climate–land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 in the United States with a focus on national parks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emission reductions. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb) in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 $\mu$g m−3; {\~{}}50{\%}), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 $\mu$g m−3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10–15 dv; {\textgreater}75 km in visibility range), although some western US parks with Class I status (40–74 {\%} of total sites in the US) are still above the 2050 planned target level to reach the goal of natural visibility conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study indicates that anthropogenic emission patterns will be important for air quality in 2050. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2–3 ppb) with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making.},
author = {{Val Martin}, M. and Heald, C. L. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Tilmes, S. and Emmons, L. K. and Schichtel, B. A.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015},
issn = {1680-7324},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2805--2823},
title = {{How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at national parks}},
url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/2805/2015/},
volume = {15},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Valerio2013,
author = {Valerio, Maria and Tomecek, Martha and Lovelli, Stella and Ziska, Lewis},
doi = {10.1016/j.eja.2013.05.006},
issn = {11610301},
journal = {European Journal of Agronomy},
month = {oct},
pages = {60--65},
title = {{Assessing the impact of increasing carbon dioxide and temperature on crop-weed interactions for tomato and a C3 and C4 weed species}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1161030113000786},
volume = {50},
year = {2013}
}
@book{Valiela2006,
address = {Malden, MA, USA},
author = {Valiela, Ivan},
isbn = {978-1-405-13685-3},
pages = {376},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Global Coastal Change}},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Valsson2011,
author = {Valsson, Trausti and Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F.},
doi = {10.1016/j.futures.2010.12.002},
issn = {00163287},
journal = {Futures},
month = {may},
number = {4},
pages = {450--459},
title = {{Future changes in activity structures of the globe under a receding Arctic ice scenario}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0016328710002740},
volume = {43},
year = {2011}
}
@article{VanBeusekom2018,
abstract = {Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant in the tropics. Climate change has the potential to greatly expand fire-prone areas to moist and wet tropical forests and grasslands that have been traditionally less fire-prone, and to extend and create more temporal variability in fire seasons. We built a machine learning random forest classifier to analyze the relationship between climatic, socio-economic, and fire history data with fire occurrence and extent for the years 2003–2011 in Puerto Rico, nearly 35,000 fires. Using classifiers based on climate measurements alone, we found that the climate space is a reliable associate, if not a predictor, of fire occurrence and extent in this environment. We found a strong relationship between occurrence and a change from average weather conditions, and between extent and severity of weather conditions. The probability that the random forest classifiers will rank a positive example higher than a negative example is 0.8–0.89 in the classifiers for deciding if a fire occurs, and 0.64–0.69 in the classifiers for deciding if the fire is greater than 5 ha. Future climate projections of extreme seasons indicate increased potential for fire occurrence with larger extents.},
author = {{Van Beusekom}, Ashley E. and Gould, William A. and Monmany, A. Carolina and Khalyani, Azad Henareh and Qui{\~{n}}ones, Maya and Fain, Stephen J. and Andrade-N{\'{u}}{\~{n}}ez, Maria Jos{\'{e}} and Gonz{\'{a}}lez, Grizelle},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2045-6},
issn = {15731480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {1-2},
pages = {117--131},
publisher = {Climatic Change},
title = {{Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico}},
volume = {146},
year = {2018}
}
@article{VandenHurk2018a,
abstract = {Earth System Models (ESM) are key ingredients of many of the climate services that are currently being developed and delivered. However, ESMs have more applications than the provision of climate services, and similarly many climate services use more sources of information than ESMs. This discussion paper elaborates on dilemmas that are evident at the interface between ESMs and climate services, in particular: (a) purposes of the models versus service development, (b) gap between the spatial and temporal scales of the models versus the scales needed in applications, and (c) Tailoring climate model results to real-world applications. A continued and broad-minded dialogue between the ESM developers and climate services providers' communities is needed to improve both the optimal use and direction of ESM development and climate service development. We put forward considerations to improve this dialogue between the communities developing ESMs and climate services, in order to increase the mutual benefit that enhanced understanding of prospects and limitations of ESMs and climate services will bring.},
author = {van den Hurk, Bart JJM and Hewitt, Chris and Jacob, Daniela and Bessembinder, Janette and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco and D{\"{o}}scher, Ralf},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2018.11.002},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {dec},
pages = {59--63},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{The match between climate services demands and Earth System Models supplies}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880718300116 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880718300116},
volume = {12},
year = {2018}
}
@article{VandenHurk2016,
abstract = {The EU Roadmap on climate services can be seen as a result of a convergence between the society's call for "actionable research", and the ability of the climate research community to provide tailored data, information and knowledge. However, although weather and climate have clearly distinct definitions, a strong link between weather and climate services exists that is not explored extensively. Stakeholders being interviewed in the context of the Roadmap consider climate as a far distant long term feature that is difficult to incorporate in present-day decision taking, which is dominated by daily experience with handling extreme events. In this paper we argue that this experience is a rich source of inspiration to increase society's resilience to an unknown future.A newly started European research project, IMPREX, is built on the notion that "experience in managing current day weather extremes is the best learning school to anticipate consequences of future climate". This paper illustrates possible ways to increase the link between information and services for the water sector, by addressing weather and climate time scales and discussing the underlying concepts of IMPREX and its expected outcome.},
author = {van den Hurk, Bart J.J.M. and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Buontempo, Carlo and D{\"{o}}scher, Ralf and Ercin, Ertug and Hananel, Cedric and Hunink, Johannes E. and Kjellstr{\"{o}}m, Erik and Klein, Bastian and Manez, Maria and Pappenberger, Florian and Pouget, Laurent and Ramos, Maria Helena and Ward, Philip J. and Weerts, Albrecht H. and Wijngaard, Janet B.},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2016.01.001},
isbn = {2405-8807},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Climate projections,Climate services,Sectoral climate impacts,Water,Weather forecasting},
pages = {6--11},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Improving predictions and management of hydrological extremes through climate services}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2016.01.001},
volume = {1},
year = {2016}
}
@article{VanHuysen2018,
author = {van Huysen, Tiff and Hansen, James and Tall, Arame},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2018.10.002},
issn = {22120963},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
month = {jan},
pages = {1--3},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Scaling up climate services for smallholder farmers: Learning from practice}},
volume = {22},
year = {2018}
}
@article{VanOldenborgh2018,
abstract = {Abstract. On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution would decrease the impacts.},
author = {van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and van Weele, Michiel and Uhe, Peter and Otto, Friederike and Singh, Roop and Pai, Indrani and Cullen, Heidi and AchutaRao, Krishna},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-18-365-2018},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {365--381},
title = {{Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change}},
url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/18/365/2018/},
volume = {18},
year = {2018}
}
@article{nhess-2020-69,
abstract = {Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 {\%} in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires.},
author = {van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Krikken, Folmer and Lewis, Sophie and Leach, Nicholas J and Lehner, Flavio and Saunders, Kate R and van Weele, Michiel and Haustein, Karsten and Li, Sihan and Wallom, David and Sparrow, Sarah and Arrighi, Julie and Singh, Roop K. and van Aalst, Maarten K and Philip, Sjoukje Y and Vautard, Robert and Otto, Friederike E L},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {941--960},
title = {{Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change}},
url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/nhess-2020-69/ https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/941/2021/},
volume = {21},
year = {2021}
}
@article{VanOldenborgh2019,
author = {van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Mitchell-Larson, Eli and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and de Vries, Hylke and Vautard, Robert and Otto, Friederike},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {11},
pages = {114004},
title = {{Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{VanVliet2016,
abstract = {Hydropower and thermoelectric power together contribute 98{\%} of the world's electricity generation at present1 . These power-generating technologies both strongly depend onwater availability, and water temperature for cooling also plays a critical role for thermoelectric power generation. Climate change and resulting changes inwater resources will therefore affect power generation while energy demands continue to increase with economic development and a growing world population. Here we present a global assessment of the vulnerability of the world's current hydropower and thermo- electric power-generation system to changing climate and water resources, and test adaptation options for sustainable water–energy security during the twenty-first century. Using a coupled hydrological–electricity modelling framework with data on 24,515 hydropower and 1,427 thermoelectric power plants,weshowreductions in usable capacity for61–74{\%}of the hydropower plants and 81–86{\%} of the thermoelectric power plantsworldwide for2040–2069.However, adaptation options such as increased plant efficiencies, replacement of cooling system types and fuel switches are effective alternatives to reduce the assessed vulnerability to changing climate and freshwater resources. Transitions in the electricity sector with a stronger focus on adaptation, in addition to mitigation, are thus highly recommended to sustain water–energy security in the coming decades.},
author = {van Vliet, Michelle T. H. and Wiberg, David and Leduc, Sylvain and Riahi, Keywan},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2903},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {375--380},
title = {{Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2903},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{VanVliet2013,
abstract = {Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for freshwater ecosystems and water use sectors. We used a global physically based hydrological-water temperature modelling framework forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenario. This resulted in global projections of daily river discharge and water temperature under future climate. Our results show an increase in the seasonality of river discharge (both increase in high flow and decrease in low flow) for about one-third of the global land surface area for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. Global mean and high (95th percentile) river water temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2). °C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for the United States, Europe, eastern China, and parts of southern Africa and Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities are exacerbated by projected decreases in low flows (resulting in a reduced thermal capacity). For strongly seasonal rivers with highest water temperatures during the low flow period, up to 26{\%} of the increases in high (95th percentile) water temperature can be attributed indirectly to low flow changes, and the largest fraction is attributable directly to increased atmospheric energy input. A combination of large increases in river temperature and decreases in low flows are projected for the southeastern United States, Europe, eastern China, southern Africa and southern Australia. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for human uses such as thermoelectric power and drinking water production. {\textcopyright} 2012 Elsevier Ltd.},
author = {van Vliet, Michelle T.H. and Franssen, Wietse H.P. and Yearsley, John R. and Ludwig, Fulco and Haddeland, Ingjerd and Lettenmaier, Dennis P. and Kabat, Pavel},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.002},
isbn = {0959-3780},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {450--464},
title = {{Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378012001331},
volume = {23},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Vanderlinden2017,
abstract = {ABSTRACT Vanderlinden, J.-P.; Baztan, J.; Touili, N.; Kane, I.O.; Rulleau, B.; Diaz Simal, P.; Pietrantoni, L.; Prati, G., and Zagonari, F., 2017. Coastal flooding, uncertainty and climate change: Science as a solution to (mis) perceptions? A qualitative enquiry in three coastal European settings. In: Martinez, M.L.; Taramelli, A., and Silva, R. (eds.), Coastal Resilience: Exploring the Many Challenges from Different Viewpoints. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 77, pp. 127–133. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. This paper contributes to the understanding of the interface between risk perception and climate change risk mitigation in coastal areas. In particular, we analyse the role of science-based knowledge and the so called “knowledge gap” in coastal stakeholders' verbalized perceptions of coastal risk. We use a qualitative approach to analyse of a corpus of 29 interviews conducted in three coastal European settings: Santander Bay (Spain), the Gironde Estuary (France), and Cesenatico...},
author = {Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul and Baztan, Juan and Touili, Nabil and Kane, Idrissa Oumar and Rulleau, B{\'{e}}n{\'{e}}dicte and Simal, Pedro Diaz and Pietrantoni, Luca and Prati, Gabrielle and Zagonari, Fabio},
doi = {10.2112/SI77-013.1},
issn = {0749-0208},
journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},
keywords = {Coastal risk,coastal adaptation,coastal defense,risk perception,social representation},
month = {apr},
pages = {127--133},
publisher = { Coastal Education and Research Foundation },
title = {{Coastal Flooding, Uncertainty and Climate Change: Science as a Solution to (mis) Perceptions? A Qualitative Enquiry in Three Coastal European Settings}},
url = {http://www.bioone.org/doi/10.2112/SI77-013.1},
volume = {77},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Vano2018,
abstract = {Water managers are actively incorporating climate change information into their long- and short-term planning processes. This is generally seen as a step in the right direction because it supplements traditional methods, providing new insights that can help in planning for a non-stationary climate. However, the continuous evolution of climate change information can make it challenging to use available information appropriately. Advice on how to use the information is not always straightforward and typically requires extended dialogue between information producers and users, which is not always feasible. To help navigate better the ever-changing climate science landscape, this review is organized as a set of nine guidelines for water managers and planners that highlight better practices for incorporating climate change information into water resource planning and management. Each DOs and DON'Ts recommendation is given with context on why certain strategies are preferable and addresses frequently asked questions by exploring past studies and documents that provide guidance, including real-world examples mainly, though not exclusively, from the United States. This paper is intended to provide a foundation that can expand through continued dialogue within and between the climate science and application communities worldwide, a two-way information sharing that can increase the actionable nature of the information produced and promote greater utility and appropriate use.},
author = {Vano, Julie A. and Arnold, Jeffrey R. and Nijssen, Bart and Clark, Martyn P. and Wood, Andrew W. and Gutmann, Ethan D. and Addor, Nans and Hamman, Joseph and Lehner, Flavio},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.002},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
month = {dec},
pages = {1--13},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{DOs and DON'Ts for using climate change information for water resource planning and management: guidelines for study design}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880717301176 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880717301176},
volume = {12},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vanos2020,
abstract = {Extreme heat adversely affects human health, productivity, and well-being, with more frequent and intense heatwaves projected to increase exposures. However, current risk projections oversimplify critical inter-individual factors of human thermoregulation, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future adverse health outcomes. Extreme heat is a global health concern, and human exposure to dangerous heat is expected to increase with climate change and urbanization. While Earth system models incorporate substantial complexities of the climate system, current projections of heat-related illness or death do not adequately account for the intricacies of human physiological heat responses, which are critical for determining vulnerability to extreme heat. This mismatch leads to projections of future heat-related mortality, survivability, and liveability that are not realistic or robust. Oversimplification of these complex responses, such as assuming that a single temperature value adequately predicts death, or using inappropriate heat stress metrics, can result in unrealistic projections of the range of future heat-related health outcomes, from well-being to illness to death. Discounting human adaptive capacity introduces further uncertainties. Consequently , decision-makers may be poorly informed about evolving heat-related risks, potentially resulting in under-preparation or over-spending of scarce health system resources. Given the global threat of heat to human health, productivity, and well-being, there is an urgent need to provide more robust and realistic projections of future heat-related health risks to assess both survivability and liveability in a warming world. This assessment requires combining knowledge from climate science, physiology, and epidemiology. Modeling advancements that accurately characterize the range of human responses to extreme heat can provide more robust climate impact assessments to enhance policy decisions and interventions that protect the most vulnerable people from current and future impacts of extreme heat. Cascade of factors leading to heat stress, strain, and adverse health outcomes Heat stress is defined by the net heat load imposed on a person from the combined thermal effects of the environment (air temperature, radiant temperature, humidity, and wind), activity (metabolic heat production), and clothing. The resultant heat strain is physiologically characterized by the associated rise in body temperature due to body heat storage, dehydration from sweat losses that are not replenished, and an increase in cardiovascular strain as heart rate rises},
author = {Vanos, Jennifer K. and Baldwin, Jane W. and Jay, Ollie and Ebi, Kristie L.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-19994-1},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Climate,Climate sciences,Physiology,change adaptation,change impacts,change mitigation},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {6079},
pmid = {33247118},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{Simplicity lacks robustness when projecting heat-health outcomes in a changing climate}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19994-1 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19994-1},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Vaquer-Sunyer2008,
abstract = {Hypoxia is a mounting problem affecting the world's coastal waters, with severe consequences for marine life, including death and catastrophic changes. Hypoxia is forecast to increase owing to the combined effects of the continued spread of coastal eutrophication and global warming. A broad comparative analysis across a range of contrasting marine benthic organisms showed that hypoxia thresholds vary greatly across marine benthic organisms and that the conventional definition of 2 mg O(2)/liter to designate waters as hypoxic is below the empirical sublethal and lethal O(2) thresholds for half of the species tested. These results imply that the number and area of coastal ecosystems affected by hypoxia and the future extent of hypoxia impacts on marine life have been generally underestimated.},
author = {Vaquer-Sunyer, Raquel and Duarte, Carlos M},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0803833105},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {oct},
number = {40},
pages = {15452--15457},
pmid = {18824689},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Thresholds of hypoxia for marine biodiversity}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18824689 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC2556360 http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0803833105},
volume = {105},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Varanasi2016a,
abstract = {Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated changes in global temperature and precipitation are major concerns for future weed management and crop production. This review focuses on the impacts of climate change factors on the growth of weeds and the potential variations in the efficacy of herbicides under changing climate conditions. Weeds are likely to show greater resilience and better adaptation to changes in CO2 concentrations and rising temperature in competition with crops due to their diverse gene pool and greater physiological plasticity. Weeds with C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathways may exhibit differential responses to higher CO2 levels and temperatures, which can affect the dynamics of crop–weed competition. In addition to its positive impact on weed growth, climate change factors could influence the efficacy of many herbicides, making weed management a major challenge for sustainable crop production. To enhance our understanding of the impact of climate change factors on herbicide efficacy, it is important to evaluate the effects of environmental conditions on various herbicide modes of action. Environmental factors such as CO2, light, temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture differentially affect the uptake, translocation, and activity of different herbicide chemistries. Furthermore, interactions among these environmental factors may have unpredictable effects on herbicide activity. Existing literature suggests that climate change factors impacts vary not only within herbicide modes of action but also among herbicides belonging to same mode of action, so making generalized assumptions for each mode of action is difficult. Extensive research on the impact of climate change factors and their interactions on all commonly used herbicides is necessary to understand the implications for weed management in future climate scenarios.},
author = {Varanasi, Aruna and Prasad, P.V. Vara and Jugulam, Mithila},
doi = {10.1016/BS.AGRON.2015.09.002},
isbn = {9780128046937},
issn = {0065-2113},
journal = {Advances in Agronomy},
month = {jan},
pages = {107--146},
publisher = {Academic Press},
title = {{Impact of Climate Change Factors on Weeds and Herbicide Efficacy}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065211315001297?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {135},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Vaughan2018,
abstract = {AbstractBilled as the creation and provision of timely, tailored information for decision making at all levels of society, climate services have garnered a great deal of attention in recent years. Despite this growing attention, strategies to design, diagnose, and evaluate climate services remain relatively ad hoc – and while a general sense of what constitutes “good practice” in climate service provision is developing in some areas, and with respect to certain aspects of service provision, a great deal about the effective implementation of such service remains unknown. This paper reviews a sample of more than 100 climate service activities as a means to generate a snapshot of the state of the field in 2012. We find that a “typical climate service” at this time was provided by a national meteorological service operating on a national scale to provide seasonal climate information to agricultural decision makers online. Our analysis shows that the field of climate services was still emerging – marked by con...},
author = {Vaughan, Catherine and Dessai, Suraje and Hewitt, Chris},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0030.1},
issn = {1948-8327},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {373--395},
title = {{Surveying Climate Services: What Can We Learn from a Bird's-Eye View?}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0030.1},
volume = {10},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vaughan2019,
abstract = {Abstract Weather and climate services (WCS) are expected to improve the capacity of Africa's agricultural sector to manage the risks of climate variability and change. Despite this, a lack of evidence prevents a realistic analysis of whether such services are delivering on their potential. This paper reviews 66 studies that have evaluated outcomes and/or impacts of agricultural WCS in Africa, highlighting areas that have received relatively more attention as well as persistent gaps. While the evaluation of WCS outcomes is relatively straightforward, estimates of the number of people who access and use these services are uneven (covering a small number of communities in 23 of 54 African countries) and highly variable (with access estimates ranging from {\~{}}2 to 86{\%}, depending on the service and the population). Meanwhile, 22 documents estimate the impact of WCS with respect to yields and/or income. Developed with a variety of methods, these estimates are also wide ranging and illustrate how impact is conditioned on a number of characteristics of the service, the user, and the context in which both operate. The paper uses lessons developed through this review to develop a ?learning agenda,? or evidence-building roadmap, to establish priorities that can guide work to improve the design, delivery, and impact of agricultural WCS in Africa. Priority learning areas include activities that can strengthen the evidence of access, use, and impacts of WCS, along with those that can advance the use and usability of evidence so as to improve the design and targeting of WCS services. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change {\textgreater} Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change {\textgreater} Learning from Cases and Analogies},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.586},
author = {Vaughan, Catherine and Hansen, James and Roudier, Philippe and Watkiss, Paul and Carr, Edward},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.586},
issn = {1757-7780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
keywords = {Africa,agricultural development,agriculture,climate services,evaluation,evidence-based decision making,impact,outcome,weather services},
month = {jul},
number = {4},
pages = {e586},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Evaluating agricultural weather and climate services in Africa: Evidence, methods, and a learning agenda}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.586},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Vautard2018,
author = {Vautard, Robert and Colette, Augustin and van Meijgaard, Erik and Meleux, Frederik and {Jan van Oldenborgh}, Geert and Otto, Friederike and Tobin, Isabelle and Yiou, Pascal and Vautard, Robert and Colette, Augustin and van Meijgaard, Erik and Meleux, Frederik and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan and Otto, Friederike and Tobin, Isabelle and Yiou, Pascal},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0113.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {S70--S75},
title = {{Attribution of Wintertime Anticyclonic Stagnation Contributing to Air Pollution in Western Europe}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0113.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vautard2019,
author = {Vautard, R and van Oldenborgh, G J and Otto, F E L and Yiou, P and de Vries, H and van Meijgaard, E and Stepek, A and Soubeyroux, J.-M. and Philip, S and Kew, S F and Costella, C and Singh, R and Tebaldi, C},
doi = {10.5194/esd-10-271-2019},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
number = {2},
pages = {271--286},
title = {{Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018}},
url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/271/2019/},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Vautard2020b,
author = {Vautard, Robert and Kadygrov, Nikolay and Iles, Carley and Boberg, Fredrik and Buonomo, Erasmo and B{\"{u}}low, Katharina and Coppola, Erika and Corre, Lola and Meijgaard, Erik and Nogherotto, Rita and Sandstad, Marit and Schwingshackl, Clemens and Somot, Samuel and Aalbers, Emma and Christensen, Ole B. and Ciarl{\`{o}}, James M. and Demory, Marie‐Estelle and Giorgi, Filippo and Jacob, Daniela and Jones, Richard G. and Keuler, Klaus and Kjellstr{\"{o}}m, Erik and Lenderink, Geert and Levavasseur, Guillaume and Nikulin, Grigory and Sillmann, Jana and Solidoro, Cosimo and S{\o}rland, Silje Lund and Steger, Christian and Teichmann, Claas and Warrach‐Sagi, Kirsten and Wulfmeyer, Volker},
doi = {10.1029/2019JD032344},
file = {::},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {nov},
pages = {e2019JD032344},
title = {{Evaluation of the large EURO‐CORDEX regional climate model ensemble}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD032344},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Vautard2010,
abstract = {Surface winds have declined in China, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, the United States and Australia over the past few decades. The precise cause of the stilling is uncertain. Here, we analyse the extent and potential cause of changes in surface wind speeds over the northern mid-latitudes between 1979 and 2008, using data from 822 surface weather stations. We show that surface wind speeds have declined by 5g-15{\%} over almost all continental areas in the northern mid-latitudes, and that strong winds have slowed faster than weak winds. In contrast, upper-air winds calculated from sea-level pressure gradients, and winds from weather reanalyses, exhibited no such trend. Changes in atmospheric circulation that are captured by reanalysis data explain 10g-50{\%} of the surface wind slowdown. In addition, mesoscale model simulations suggest that an increase in surface roughnessg-the magnitude of which is estimated from increases in biomass and land-use change in Eurasiag-could explain between 25 and 60{\%} of the stilling. Moreover, regions of pronounced stilling generally coincided with regions where biomass has increased over the past 30 years, supporting the role of vegetation increases in wind slowdown. {\textcopyright} 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.},
author = {Vautard, R. and Cattiaux, J. and Yiou, P. and Th{\'{e}}paut, J.-N. and Ciais, P.},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo979},
issn = {17520894},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
number = {11},
pages = {756--761},
title = {{Northern Hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness}},
volume = {3},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Venalainen2014,
abstract = {Abstract. Understanding how fire weather danger indices changed in the past and how such changes affected forest fire activity is important in a changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis data sets, ERA-40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest fire statistics from Greece, Spain and Finland to examine the relationship between fire danger and fires. There is no obvious trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA-40 (1960–1999), whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI shows an increasing trend for southern and eastern Europe which is significant at the 99{\%} confidence level. The cross correlations calculated at the national level in Greece, Spain and Finland between total area burned and mean FWI of the current season is of the order of 0.6, demonstrating the extent to which the current fire-season weather can explain forest fires. To summarize, fire risk is multifaceted, and while climate is a major determinant, other factors can contribute to it, either positively or negatively.},
author = {Ven{\"{a}}l{\"{a}}inen, Ari and Korhonen, Natalia and Hyv{\"{a}}rinen, Otto and Koutsias, N and Xystrakis, F and Urbieta, I R and Moreno, J M},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-14-1477-2014},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1477--1490},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012}},
url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/14/1477/2014/},
volume = {14},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Vera2015,
abstract = {Austral summer rainfall trends are analysed over South America from observations and simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 between 1902 and 2005. Positive trends in southeastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn) are the most significant observed features. Mean trends obtained from an ensemble of 59 simulations from 14 models for the historical experiment (including both natural and anthropogenic forcings) are able to reproduce those precipitation changes, although weaker than observed. Most of the simulations reproduce the right sign of the precipitation changes at both regions. However, associated uncertainty ranges (due to both inter-model dispersion and internal climate variability) are still large. Mean trends for the historical experiment are statistically distinguishable from those obtained for the natural-forcing-only experiment, which exhibit negligible mean values at both regions. Results allow concluding that the anthropogenic forcing has at least a partial contribution in explaining the precipitation changes observed in both SESA and SAn regions during the last century.},
author = {Vera, Carolina S. and D{\'{i}}az, Leandro},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4153},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Anthropogenic forcing,Climate change,Precipitation trends,South America},
month = {aug},
number = {10},
pages = {3172--3177},
title = {{Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4153},
volume = {35},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Veraverbeke2017a,
author = {Veraverbeke, Sander and Rogers, Brendan M. and Goulden, Mike L. and Jandt, Randi R. and Miller, Charles E. and Wiggins, Elizabeth B. and Randerson, James T.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3329},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {jun},
number = {7},
pages = {529--534},
title = {{Lightning as a major driver of recent large fire years in North American boreal forests}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3329},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Verfaillie2018,
abstract = {This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and observations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5-EURO-CORDEX GCM-RCM pairs spanning historical (1950-2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13 each) future scenarios (2006-2100). The adjusted climate model runs were used to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snow accounts for 20 {\%} typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have a much smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rather similar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation of the ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannual variability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, and continued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latter leading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in local meteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with global temperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32 {\%} reduction, respectively, of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986-2005. Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding 2°C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorial indicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or natural hazards.},
author = {Verfaillie, Deborah and Lafaysse, Matthieu and D{\'{e}}qu{\'{e}}, Michel and Eckert, Nicolas and Lejeune, Yves and Morin, Samuel},
doi = {10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018},
issn = {19940424},
journal = {Cryosphere},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1249--1271},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps}},
volume = {12},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vezzulli2015,
author = {Vezzulli, Luigi and Pezzati, Elisabetta and Brettar, Ingrid and H{\"{o}}fle, Manfred and Pruzzo, Carla},
doi = {10.1128/microbiolspec.VE-0004-2014},
issn = {2165-0497},
journal = {Microbiology Spectrum},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pmid = {26185070},
title = {{Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology}},
url = {http://www.asmscience.org/content/journal/microbiolspec/10.1128/microbiolspec.VE-0004-2014},
volume = {3},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Vicente-Serrano2017,
author = {Vicente-Serrano, S M and Zabalza-Mart{\'{i}}nez, J and Borr{\`{a}}s, G and L{\'{o}}pez-Moreno, J I and Pla, E and Pascual, D and Sav{\'{e}}, R and Biel, C and Funes, I and Azorin-Molina, C and Sanchez-Lorenzo, A and Mart{\'{i}}n-Hern{\'{a}}ndez, N and Pe{\~{n}}a-Gallardo, M and Alonso-Gonz{\'{a}}lez, E and Tomas-Burguera, M and {El Kenawy}, A},
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.01.004},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
pages = {13--32},
title = {{Extreme hydrological events and the influence of reservoirs in a highly regulated river basin of northeastern Spain}},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{VichotLlano2021,
abstract = {Regional climate projections are developed four Central America and the Caribbean, based on a multiparameter ensemble formed by four configurations with different convective cumulus schemes with the regional model RegCM4 at 25 km grid spacing, driven by the HadGEM2-ES global model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The precipitation change projections indicate drier conditions compared to present in the near future (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) time slices. These drier conditions are statistically significant at the 90{\%} confidence level over the eastern Caribbean, central Atlantic Ocean, and the western Pacific Ocean and are more pronounced in the far future time slice. For temperature, the warmer conditions are statistically significant at the 95{\%} confidence level over the study region. The drier and warmer signals are greater in extension and magnitude in the RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature extreme indices show a reduction of consecutive wet days and an increment of consecutive dry days, with a reduction of cold days and nights and an increase of warm days and nights. Lower precipitation along with increased intensity of extreme events are projected over the Greatest Antilles region.},
author = {Vichot‐Llano, Alejandro and Martinez‐Castro, Daniel and Bezanilla‐Morlot, Arnoldo and Centella‐Artola, Abel and Giorgi, Filippo},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6811},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {1328--1350},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Ltd},
title = {{Projected changes in precipitation and temperature regimes and extremes over the Caribbean and Central America using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6811},
volume = {41},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Vidal2016,
abstract = {Abstract. This paper proposes a methodology for estimating the transient probability distribution of yearly hydrological variables conditional to an ensemble of projections built from multiple general circulation models (GCMs), multiple statistical downscaling methods (SDMs), and multiple hydrological models (HMs). The methodology is based on the quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) framework that allows quantifying the contributions of the different sources of total uncertainty, by critically taking account of large-scale internal variability stemming from the transient evolution of multiple GCM runs, and of small-scale internal variability derived from multiple realizations of stochastic SDMs. This framework thus allows deriving a hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties, which depends on the time horizon considered. It was initially developed for long-term climate averages and is here extended jointly to (1) yearly anomalies and (2) low-flow variables. It is applied to better understand possible transient futures of both winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps. The analysis takes advantage of a very large data set of transient hydrological projections that combines in a comprehensive way 11 runs from four different GCMs, three SDMs with 10 stochastic realizations each, as well as six diverse HMs. The change signal is a decrease in yearly low flows of around −20 {\%} in 2065, except for the more elevated catchment in winter where low flows barely decrease. This signal is largely masked by both large- and small-scale internal variability, even in 2065. The time of emergence of the change signal is however detected for low-flow averages over 30-year time slices starting as early as 2020. The most striking result is that a large part of the total uncertainty – and a higher one than that due to the GCMs – stems from the difference in HM responses. An analysis of the origin of this substantial divergence in HM responses for both catchments and in both seasons suggests that both evapotranspiration and snowpack components of HMs should be carefully checked for their robustness in a changed climate in order to provide reliable outputs for informing water resource adaptation strategies.},
author = {Vidal, Jean-Philippe and Hingray, Beno{\^{i}}t and Magand, Claire and Sauquet, Eric and Ducharne, Agn{\`{e}}s},
doi = {10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016},
issn = {1607-7938},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {3651--3672},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections}},
url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/20/3651/2016/},
volume = {20},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Vikhamar-Schuler2016,
abstract = {In recent years extreme winter warming events have been reported in arctic areas. These events are characterized as extraordinarily warm weather episodes, occasionally combined with intense rainfall, causing ecological disturbance and challenges for arctic societies and infrastructure. Ground-ice formation due to winter rain or melting prevents ungulates from grazing, leads to vegetation browning, and impacts soil temperatures. The authors analyze changes in frequency and intensity of winter warming events in the Nordic arctic region—northern Norway, Sweden, and Finland, including the arctic islands Svalbard and Jan Mayen. This study identifies events in the longest available records of daily temperature and precipitation, as well as in future climate scenarios, and performs analyses of long-term trends for climate indices aimed to capture these individual events. Results show high frequencies of warm weather events during the 1920s–30s and the past 15 years (2000–14), causing weak positive trends over the past 90 years (1924–2014). In contrast, strong positive trends in occurrence and intensity for all climate indices are found for the past 50 years with, for example, increased rates for number of melt days of up to 9.2 days decade−1 for the arctic islands and 3–7 days decade−1 for the arctic mainland. Regional projections for the twenty-first century indicate a significant enhancement of the frequency and intensity of winter warming events. For northern Scandinavia, the simulations indicate a doubling in the number of warming events, compared to 1985–2014, while the projected frequencies for the arctic islands are up to 3 times higher.},
author = {Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun and Isaksen, Ketil and Haugen, Jan Erik and T{\o}mmervik, Hans and Luks, Bartlomiej and Schuler, Thomas Vikhamar and Bjerke, Jarle W},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0763.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Arctic,Climate change,Geographic location/entity,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Snow cover,Temperature},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {6223--6244},
title = {{Changes in Winter Warming Events in the Nordic Arctic Region}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/29/17/6223/107106/Changes-in-Winter-Warming-Events-in-the-Nordic},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Villafuerte2014,
author = {Villafuerte, Marcelino Q and Matsumoto, Jun and Akasaka, Ikumi and Takahashi, Hiroshi G and Kubota, Hisayuki and Cinco, Thelma A},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.09.021},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
month = {feb},
pages = {1--13},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809513002731},
volume = {137},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Villarini2020,
abstract = {Abstract Our study focuses on the projected changes in annual and seasonal maximum daily runoff (used as a proxy for flooding) across the continental United States based on outputs from eight global climate models (GCMs) from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Analyses performed at the regional scale indicate that the GCMs are generally able to reproduce the observed changes in runoff extremes, especially at the seasonal scale, with no single model that outperforms the others across the different seasons and regions. Overall, annual maximum daily runoff is projected to increase during the 21st century, especially in large areas of the southeastern United States and Pacific Northwest, and to decrease in the Rocky Mountains and the northern Great Plains. The largest changes in extremes are projected to be in winter and spring, with a more muted signal for summer and fall.},
author = {Villarini, Gabriele and Zhang, Wei},
doi = {10.1111/nyas.14359},
issn = {0077-8923},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {95--103},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Projected changes in flooding: a continental U.S. perspective}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/nyas.14359},
volume = {1472},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Villarini,
author = {Villarini, Gabriele and Slater, Louise J.},
doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001620},
issn = {1084-0699},
journal = {Journal of Hydrologic Engineering},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {06017010},
title = {{Examination of Changes in Annual Maximum Gauge Height in the Continental United States Using Quantile Regression}},
url = {https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/{\%}28ASCE{\%}29HE.1943-5584.0001620 http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/{\%}28ASCE{\%}29HE.1943-5584.0001620},
volume = {23},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vincent2018a,
abstract = {The need to improve the science-policy/practice divide is recognised for the effective generation and use of climate services to inform adaptation. Intradisciplinary – or within discipline – Communities of Practice (COPs) have long been recognised as a mechanism for furthering the development of information, but the role of transdisciplinary COPs – that span the science-policy/practice divide – is less well studied. In particular it has been claimed that COPs cannot be sustainably created by projects. This paper provides a discussion on what makes each type of COP successful, and a perspective on the extent to which each type of COP can be formed by projects, drawing on experiences from projects in the International Development Research Centre's (IDRC) Climate Change and Water (CCW) programme. We argue that there is need for a more nuanced understanding of COPs. Our findings reinforce the literature that intradisciplinary COPs need to be internally generated, but indicate that it may be possible to create sustainable transdisciplinary COPs through projects. It also highlights some experiences for creating effective transdisciplinary COPs to improve development and use of climate services.},
author = {Vincent, Katharine and Steynor, Anna and Waagsaether, Katinka and Cull, Tracy},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2018.05.004},
issn = {24058807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Science communication,Science-policy,Useable science,Users},
month = {aug},
number = {December 2017},
pages = {72--77},
title = {{Communities of practice: One size does not fit all}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880716300553},
volume = {11},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vincent2018,
abstract = {Co-produced climate services are increasingly recognised as a means of improving the effective generation and utilisation of climate information to inform decision-making and support adaptation to climate change, particularly in developing countries. There is a rich literature outlining the theoretical and conceptual evolution of co-production, and experiences of it in a variety of decision contexts – in different sectors and at different scales. However, the extent to which the producers of climate services have engaged with this literature varies. Reflecting the emerging interest and application, particularly in developing countries, this paper reviews the co-production literature to distil some key principles to inform climate services. Whilst we aim to be neither comprehensive nor prescriptive, these principles can inform a normative and pragmatic approach to co-produced climate services. A co-produced climate service product should be decision-driven, process-based and time-managed. The process of co-producing a climate service should be inclusive, collaborative and flexible. Illustrations are also provided of how these principles may be engaged in practice. Evaluation of these emerging examples will help further inform co-production of climate services.},
author = {Vincent, Katharine and Daly, Meaghan and Scannell, Claire and Leathes, Bill},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2018.11.001},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Climate services,Co-production,Developing countries,Post-normal science,Producer-user relations,Science-society relations},
month = {dec},
pages = {48--58},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{What can climate services learn from theory and practice of co-production?}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880718300712 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2405880718300712},
volume = {12},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vincent2018c,
author = {Vincent, L.A. and Zhang, X. and Mekis, {\'{E}}. and Wan, H. and Bush, E.J.},
doi = {10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579},
issn = {0705-5900},
journal = {Atmosphere-Ocean},
month = {oct},
number = {5},
pages = {332--349},
title = {{Changes in Canada's Climate: Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579},
volume = {56},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Visscher2020,
abstract = {Climate services bear the promise of becoming a new, remunerative market of knowledge-intensive services. Although several climate services have been developed, there has been little reflection on the kinds of services such a new market could encompass, and on the ways in which formats can be created that match supply and demand. Using a research approach based on Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA), this article presents a typology of climate services, with types called ‘Maps {\&} Apps', ‘Expert Analysis', ‘Climate-inclusive Consulting', and ‘Sharing Practices'. This typology, which is conceptually elaborated and empirically illustrated, structures the variety in current and potential climate services. It provides a framework for the development of climate services and helps users and producers to explore and articulate alternatives for matching supply and demand. On the basis of our analysis we also point towards a more differentiated and broader conceptualization of climate services.},
author = {Visscher, Klaasjan and Stegmaier, Peter and Damm, Andrea and Hamaker-Taylor, Robin and Harjanne, Atte and Giordano, Raffaele},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100136},
issn = {2405-8807},
journal = {Climate Services},
keywords = {Climate services,Constructive Technology Assessment,Market development,Service innovation,Users},
pages = {100136},
title = {{Matching supply and demand: A typology of climate services}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880719300779},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Viste2015,
abstract = {Abstract. Snow and ice provide large amounts of meltwater to the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. This study combines present-day observations and reanalysis data with climate model projections to estimate the amount of snow falling over the basins today and in the last decades of the 21st century. Estimates of present-day snowfall based on a combination of temperature and precipitation from reanalysis data and observations vary by factors of 2–4. The spread is large, not just between the reanalysis and the observations but also between the different observational data sets. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario (RCP8.5), the climate models project reductions in annual snowfall by 30–50{\%} in the Indus Basin, 50–60{\%} in the Ganges Basin and 50–70{\%} in the Brahmaputra Basin by 2071–2100. The reduction is due to increasing temperatures, as the mean of the models show constant or increasing precipitation throughout the year in most of the region. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario, the mean elevation where rain changes to snow – the rain/snow line – creeps upward by 400–900 m, in most of the region by 700–900 meters. The largest relative change in snowfall is seen in the upper westernmost sub-basins of the Brahmaputra. With the strongest forcing scenario, most of this region will have temperatures above freezing, especially in the summer. The projected reduction in annual snowfall is 65–75{\%}. In the upper Indus, the effect of a warmer climate on snowfall is less extreme, as most of the terrain is high enough to have temperatures sufficiently far below freezing today. A 20–40{\%} reduction in annual snowfall is projected.},
author = {Viste, Ellen and Sorteberg, A},
doi = {10.5194/tc-9-1147-2015},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {1147--1167},
title = {{Snowfall in the Himalayas: an uncertain future from a little-known past}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/1147/2015/},
volume = {9},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Vitousek2017,
abstract = {Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.},
author = {Vitousek, Sean and Barnard, Patrick L. and Fletcher, Charles H. and Frazer, Neil and Erikson, Li and Storlazzi, Curt D. and Barnard, Patrick L. and Storlazzi, Curt D. and Erikson, Li and Vitousek, Sean and Frazer, Neil},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7},
isbn = {2045-2322},
issn = {20452322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1399},
pmid = {28522843},
title = {{Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01362-7},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Vogel2019,
abstract = {Climate extremes, such as droughts or heat waves, can lead to harvest failures and threaten the livelihoods of agricultural producers and the food security of communities worldwide. Improving our understanding of their impacts on crop yields is crucial to enhance the resilience of the global food system. This study analyses, to our knowledge for the first time, the impacts of climate extremes on yield anomalies of maize, soybeans, rice and spring wheat at the global scale using sub-national yield data and applying a machine-learning algorithm. We find that growing season climate factors - including mean climate as well as climate extremes - explain 20{\%}-49{\%} of the variance of yield anomalies (the range describes the differences between crop types), with 18{\%}-43{\%} of the explained variance attributable to climate extremes, depending on crop type. Temperature-related extremes show a stronger association with yield anomalies than precipitation-related factors, while irrigation partly mitigates negative effects of high temperature extremes. We developed a composite indicator to identify hotspot regions that are critical for global production and particularly susceptible to the effects of climate extremes. These regions include North America for maize, spring wheat and soy production, Asia in the case of maize and rice production as well as Europe for spring wheat production. Our study highlights the importance of considering climate extremes for agricultural predictions and adaptation planning and provides an overview of critical regions that are most susceptible to variations in growing season climate and climate extremes.},
author = {Vogel, Elisabeth and Donat, Markus G. and Alexander, Lisa V. and Meinshausen, Malte and Ray, Deepak K. and Karoly, David and Meinshausen, Nicolai and Frieler, Katja},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {agriculture,crop yields,extreme weather events,machine learning,random forest},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {054010},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Vogel2020,
abstract = {Concurrent extreme events, i.e. multi-variate extremes, can be associated with strong impacts. Hence, an understanding of how such events are changing in a warming climate is helpful to avoid some associated climate change impacts and better prepare for them. In this article, we analyse the projected occurrence of hot, dry, and wet extreme events' clusters in the multi-model ensemble of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Changes in ‘extreme extremes', i.e. events with only 1{\%} probability of occurrence in the current climate are analysed, first as univariate extremes, and then when co-occurring with other types of extremes (i.e. events clusters) within the same week, month or year. The projections are analysed for present-day climate (+1 °C) and different levels of additional global warming (+1.5 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C). The results reveal substantial risk of occurrence of extreme events' clusters of different types across the globe at higher global warming levels. Hotspot regions for hot and dry clusters are mainly found in Brazil, i.e. in the Northeast and the Amazon rain forest, the Mediterranean region, and Southern Africa. Hotspot regions for wet and hot clusters are found in tropical Africa but also in the Sahel region, Indonesia, and in mountainous regions such as the Andes and the Himalaya.},
author = {Vogel, Martha M and Hauser, Mathias and Seneviratne, Sonia I},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab90a7},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {9},
pages = {94021},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Projected changes in hot, dry and wet extreme events' clusters in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab90a7},
volume = {15},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wang2013a,
abstract = {This scientific assessment examines changes in three climate extremes—extratropical storms, winds, and waves—with an emphasis on U.S. coastal regions during the cold season. There is moderate evidence of an increase in both extratropical storm frequency and intensity during the cold season in the Northern Hemisphere since 1950, with suggestive evidence of geographic shifts resulting in slight upward trends in offshore/coastal regions. There is also suggestive evidence of an increase in extreme winds (at least annually) over parts of the ocean since the early to mid-1980s, but the evidence over the U.S. land surface is inconclusive. Finally, there is moderate evidence of an increase in extreme waves in winter along the Pacific coast since the 1950s, but along other U.S. shorelines any tendencies are of modest magnitude compared with historical variability. The data for extratropical cyclones are considered to be of relatively high quality for trend detection, whereas the data for extreme winds and waves ar...},
author = {Vose, Russell S. and Applequist, Scott and Bourassa, Mark A. and Pryor, Sara C. and Barthelmie, Rebecca J. and Blanton, Brian and Bromirski, Peter D. and Brooks, Harold E. and DeGaetano, Arthur T. and Dole, Randall M. and Easterling, David R. and Jensen, Robert E. and Karl, Thomas R. and Katz, Richard W. and Klink, Katherine and Kruk, Michael C. and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and MacCracken, Michael C. and Peterson, Thomas C. and Shein, Karsten and Thomas, Bridget R. and Walsh, John E. and Wang, Xiaolan L. and Wehner, Michael F. and Wuebbles, Donald J. and Young, Robert S. and Vose, Russell S. and Applequist, Scott and Bourassa, Mark A. and Pryor, Sara C. and Barthelmie, Rebecca J. and Blanton, Brian and Bromirski, Peter D. and Brooks, Harold E. and DeGaetano, Arthur T. and Dole, Randall M. and Easterling, David R. and Jensen, Robert E. and Karl, Thomas R. and Katz, Richard W. and Klink, Katherine and Kruk, Michael C. and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and MacCracken, Michael C. and Peterson, Thomas C. and Shein, Karsten and Thomas, Bridget R. and Walsh, John E. and Wang, Xiaolan L. and Wehner, Michael F. and Wuebbles, Donald J. and Young, Robert S.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00162.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {377--386},
publisher = { American Meteorological Society },
title = {{Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Extremes: Extratropical Storms, Winds, and Waves}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00162.1},
volume = {95},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Vousdoukas2017,
author = {Vousdoukas, Michalis I. and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Voukouvalas, Evangelos and Verlaan, Martin and Feyen, Luc},
doi = {10.1002/2016EF000505},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {climate change,coastal hazard,sea level rise,storm surge,waves},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {304--323},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016EF000505},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Vousdoukas2018,
abstract = {Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.},
author = {Vousdoukas, Michalis I. and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Voukouvalas, Evangelos and Verlaan, Martin and Jevrejeva, Svetlana and Jackson, Luke P. and Feyen, Luc},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w},
isbn = {2041-1723},
issn = {2041-1723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Climate and Earth system modelling,Natural hazards,Physical oceanography},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {2360},
pmid = {29915265},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04692-w},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Vousdoukas2020a,
abstract = {Sandy beaches occupy more than one-third of the global coastline1 and have high socioeconomic value related to recreation, tourism and ecosystem services2. Beaches are the interface between land and ocean, providing coastal protection from marine storms and cyclones3. However the presence of sandy beaches cannot be taken for granted, as they are under constant change, driven by meteorological4,5, geological6 and anthropogenic factors1,7. A substantial proportion of the world's sandy coastline is already eroding1,7, a situation that could be exacerbated by climate change8,9. Here, we show that ambient trends in shoreline dynamics, combined with coastal recession driven by sea level rise, could result in the near extinction of almost half of the world's sandy beaches by the end of the century. Moderate GHG emission mitigation could prevent 40{\%} of shoreline retreat. Projected shoreline dynamics are dominated by sea level rise for the majority of sandy beaches, but in certain regions the erosive trend is counteracted by accretive ambient shoreline changes; for example, in the Amazon, East and Southeast Asia and the north tropical Pacific. A substantial proportion of the threatened sandy shorelines are in densely populated areas, underlining the need for the design and implementation of effective adaptive measures.},
author = {Vousdoukas, Michalis I and Ranasinghe, Roshanka and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Plomaritis, Theocharis A and Athanasiou, Panagiotis and Luijendijk, Arjen and Feyen, Luc},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {260--263},
title = {{Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0697-0},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Vousdoukas2020,
abstract = {Extreme sea levels (ESLs) in Europe could rise by as much as one metre or more by the end of this century due to climate change. This poses significant challenges to safeguard coastal communities. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of economically efficient protection scenarios along Europe's coastlines during the present century. We employ a probabilistic framework that integrates dynamic simulations of all ESL components and flood inundation, impact modelling and a cost-benefit analysis of raising dykes. We find that at least 83{\%} of flood damages in Europe could be avoided by elevating dykes in an economically efficient way along 23.7{\%}-32.1{\%} of Europe's coastline, specifically where high value conurbations exist. The European mean benefit to cost ratio of the investments varies from 8.3 to 14.9 while at country level this ranges between 1.6 and 34.3, with higher efficiencies for a scenario with high-end greenhouse gas emissions and strong socio-economic growth.},
author = {Vousdoukas, Michalis I. and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Hinkel, Jochen and Ward, Philip J. and Mongelli, Ignazio and Ciscar, Juan Carlos and Feyen, Luc},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-15665-3},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {Climate,Natural hazards,change impacts,change mitigation},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {1--11},
pmid = {32371866},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15665-3},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Vu2018,
author = {Vu, D. T. and Yamada, T. and Ishidaira, H.},
doi = {10.2166/wst.2018.038},
issn = {0273-1223},
journal = {Water Science and Technology},
month = {mar},
number = {6},
pages = {1632--1639},
publisher = {IWA Publishing},
title = {{Assessing the impact of sea level rise due to climate change on seawater intrusion in Mekong Delta, Vietnam}},
url = {https://iwaponline.com/wst/article/77/6/1632-1639/41155},
volume = {77},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wadsworth2019a,
abstract = {Sierra Leone on the west coast of Africa has a monsoon-type climate. Reports by politically influential donors regularly state that Sierra Leone is extremely vulnerable to climate change, but the objective evidence backing these statements is often unreported. Predicting the future climate depends on modelling the West African monsoon; unfortunately, current models give conflicting results. Instead, changes in rainfall over the last four decades are examined to see if there are already significant changes. Rainfall records are extremely limited, so the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station daily data at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees was used. In addition to total annual rainfall, the characteristics of the early rainy season (critical for farmers), the length of the rainy season and growing season, and the frequency of extreme events were calculated. There is evidence for a significant reduction in annual rainfall in the northwest. There is only limited support for the widely held belief that the start of the rainy season is becoming more erratic and that extreme events are becoming more common. El-Ni{\~{n}}o was significant in the southeast. If these trends continue, they will exacerbate the consequences of temperature increases (predicted to be between 1 and 2.6 °C by 2060) and negatively affect the livelihoods and agricultural practices of the rural poor.},
author = {Wadsworth, Richard and Jalloh, Amie and Lebbie, Aiah},
doi = {10.3390/cli7120144},
issn = {2225-1154},
journal = {Climate},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {144},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
title = {{Changes in Rainfall in Sierra Leone: 1981–2018}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/12/144},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Waha2020,
abstract = {Multiple cropping, defined as harvesting more than once a year, is a widespread land management strategy in tropical and subtropical agriculture. It is a way of intensifying agricultural production and diversifying the crop mix for economic and environmental benefits. Here we present the first global gridded data set of multiple cropping systems and quantify the physical area of more than 200 systems, the global multiple cropping area and the potential for increasing cropping intensity. We use national and sub-national data on monthly crop-specific growing areas around the year 2000 (1998–2002) for 26 crop groups, global cropland extent and crop harvested areas to identify sequential cropping systems of two or three crops with non-overlapping growing seasons. We find multiple cropping systems on 135 million hectares (12{\%} of global cropland) with 85 million hectares in irrigated agriculture. 34{\%}, 13{\%} and 10{\%} of the rice, wheat and maize area, respectively are under multiple cropping, demonstrating the importance of such cropping systems for cereal production. Harvesting currently single cropped areas a second time could increase global harvested areas by 87–395 million hectares, which is about 45{\%} lower than previous estimates. Some scenarios of intensification indicate that it could be enough land to avoid expanding physical cropland into other land uses but attainable intensification will depend on the local context and the crop yields attainable in the second cycle and its related environmental costs.},
author = {Waha, Katharina and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Portmann, Felix T. and Siebert, Stefan and Thornton, Philip K. and Bondeau, Alberte and Herrero, Mario},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102131},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
keywords = {Cropping intensity,Double cropping,Global crop production,Harvest frequency,Land sparing,Land use intensity},
month = {sep},
pages = {102131},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Multiple cropping systems of the world and the potential for increasing cropping intensity}},
volume = {64},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wahl2015,
abstract = {When storm surge and heavy precipitation co-occur, the potential for flooding in low-lying coastal areas is often much greater than from either in isolation. Knowing the probability of these compound events and understanding the processes driving them is essential to mitigate the associated high-impact risks. Here we determine the likelihood of joint occurrence of these two phenomena for the contiguous United States (US) and show that the risk of compound flooding is higher for the Atlantic/Gulf coast relative to the Pacific coast. We also provide evidence that the number of compound events has increased significantly over the past century at many of the major coastal cities. Long-term sea-level rise is the main driver for accelerated flooding along the US coastline; however, under otherwise stationary conditions (no trends in individual records), changes in the joint distributions of storm surge and precipitation associated with climate variability and change also augment flood potential. For New York City (NYC) - as an example - the observed increase in compound events is attributed to a shift towards storm surge weather patterns that also favour high precipitation. Our results demonstrate the importance of assessing compound flooding in a non-stationary framework and its linkages to weather and climate.},
author = {Wahl, Thomas and Jain, Shaleen and Bender, Jens and Meyers, Steven D. and Luther, Mark E.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2736},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Hydrology,Physical oceanography,change impacts},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {1093--1097},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2736},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Wainwright2014,
abstract = {Determination of coastal hazard lines is a key task for coastal engineers worldwide. While current practice differs from country to country and even within countries, in many coastal hazard assessments three main components of coastline recession are taken into account: episodic recession due to storm erosion, long term recession due to an imbalance in sediment transport, and recession due to sea-level rise. In Australia, the state of New South Wales has a well-established procedure for the definition of coastal hazards that has evolved since the 1970's. Accepted practice in NSW is intentionally conservative, due to uncertainties and a limited understanding of physical processes. This article (i) provides an historical perspective on the development of the established methodology; (ii) discusses the various components of coastal hazard considered, and (iii) examines the way in which these components can be combined. Suggestions are subsequently provided for a way forward that better suits emerging risk-based coastal management/planning frameworks. The article also considers the advantages and practicalities associated with assigning numerical probabilities to hazard lines as part of risk-based coastal management.},
author = {Wainwright, D.J. and Ranasinghe, R. and Callaghan, D.P. and Woodroffe, C.D. and Cowell, P.J. and Rogers, K.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.04.009},
issn = {09645691},
journal = {Ocean {\&} Coastal Management},
month = {jul},
pages = {147--155},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{An argument for probabilistic coastal hazard assessment: Retrospective examination of practice in New South Wales, Australia}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569114001033 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0964569114001033},
volume = {95},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Walsh2016a,
abstract = {Current and potential future storm-related wind and hail hazard in Australia is reviewed. Confidence in the current incidence of wind hazard depends upon the type of storm producing the hazard. Current hail hazard is poorly quantified in most regions of Australia. Future projections of wind hazard indicate decreases in wind hazard in northern Australia, increases along the east coast and decreases in the south, although such projections are considerably uncertain and are more uncertain for small-scale storms than for larger storms. A number of research gaps are identified and recommendations made.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {NIHMS150003},
author = {Walsh, Kevin JE and White, Christopher J. and McInnes, Kathleen and Holmes, John and Schuster, Sandra and Richter, Harald and Evans, Jason P. and {Di Luca}, Alejandro and Warren, Robert A.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1737-7},
eprint = {NIHMS150003},
isbn = {1573-1480},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {1},
pages = {55--67},
pmid = {24335434},
publisher = {Climatic Change},
title = {{Natural hazards in Australia: storms, wind and hail}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1737-7},
volume = {139},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Walsh2016,
abstract = {Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11{\%} by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34{\%}. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20{\%} in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.},
author = {Walsh, Kevin J.E. and Mcbride, John L. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Balachandran, Sethurathinam and Camargo, Suzana J. and Holland, Greg and Knutson, Thomas R. and Kossin, James P. and cheung Lee, Tsz and Sobel, Adam and Sugi, Masato},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.371},
isbn = {1752-0894},
issn = {17577799},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {65--89},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Tropical cyclones and climate change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.371},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Walsh2014a,
author = {Walsh, Kevin JE and Giorgi, Filippo and Coppola, Erika},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-013-1723-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {feb},
number = {3-4},
pages = {1053--1066},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Mediterranean warm-core cyclones in a warmer world}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-013-1723-y},
volume = {42},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Walvoord2016,
abstract = {Where present, permafrost exerts a primary control on water fluxes, flow-paths, and distribution. Climate warming and related drivers of soil thermal change are expected to modify the distribution of permafrost, leading to changing hydrologic conditions, including alterations in soil moisture, connectivity of inland waters, streamflow seasonality, and the partitioning of water stored above and below ground. The field of permafrost hydrology is undergoing rapid advancement with respect to multiscale observations, subsurface characterization, modeling, and integration with other disciplines. However, gaining predictive capability of the many interrelated consequences of climate change is a persistent challenge due to several factors. Observations of hydrologic change have been causally linked to permafrost thaw, but applications of process-based models needed to support and enhance the transferability of empirical linkages have often been restricted to generalized representations. Limitations stem from inadequate baseline permafrost and unfrozen hydrogeologic characterization, lack of historical data, and simplifications in structure and process representation needed to counter the high computational demands of cryohydrogeologic simulations. Further, due in part to the large degree of subsurface heterogeneity of permafrost landscapes and the nonuniformity in thaw patterns and rates, associations between various modes of permafrost thaw and hydrologic change are not readily scalable; even trajectories of change can differ. This review highlights promising advances in characterization and modeling of permafrost regions and presents ongoing research challenges toward projecting hydrologic and ecologic consequences of permafrost thaw at time and spatial scales that are useful to managers and researchers.},
author = {Walvoord, Michelle A. and Kurylyk, Barret L.},
doi = {10.2136/vzj2016.01.0010},
issn = {1539-1663},
journal = {Vadose Zone Journal},
keywords = {ALT,Abbreviations: AEM,CALM,Cir-cumpolar Active Layer Monitoring,EMI,ERT,GPR,InSAR,Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar,NMR,SR,TDEM,active layer thickness,airborne electromagnetic,electrical re-sistivity tomography,electromagnetic induction,ground-penetrating radar,nuclear magnetic resonance,seismic refraction,time-domain electromagnetics},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {1--20},
publisher = {Wiley},
title = {{Hydrologic Impacts of Thawing Permafrost – A Review}},
volume = {15},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wan2020,
author = {Wan, Zheng and Shi, Haibin and Liu, Xiaomin and Liu, Haiyan},
doi = {10.2112/JCR-SI115-115.1},
journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},
month = {aug},
number = {sp1},
pages = {405--408},
title = {{Analysis on the Ice Regime Change Characteristics in the Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River from 1950 to 2010}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.2112/JCR-SI115-115.1},
volume = {115},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wanders2015,
abstract = {Climate change will very likely impact future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of human water use including reservoir regulation and climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale. The global hydrological and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB is used to simulate daily discharge globally at 0.5° resolution for 1971–2099. The model was forced with the latest CMIP5 climate projections taken from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four emission scenarios (RCPs), under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. A natural or pristine scenario has been used to calculate the impact of the changing climate on hydrological drought and has been compared to a scenario with human influences. In the latter scenario reservoir operations and human water use are included in the simulations of discharge for the 21st century. The impact of humans on the low flow regime and hydrological drought characteristics has been studied at a catchment scale. Results show a significant impact of climate change and human water use in large parts of Asia, Middle East and the Mediterranean, where the relative contribution of humans on the changed drought severity can be close to 100{\%}. The differences between Representative Concentration Pathways are small indicating that human water use is proportional to the changes in the climate. Reservoirs tend to reduce the impact of drought by water retention in the wet season, which in turn will lead to increased water availability in the dry season, especially for large regions in Europe and North America. The impact of climate change varies throughout the season for parts of Europe and North-America, while in other regions (e.g. North-Africa, Middle East and Mediterranean), the impact is not influenced by seasonal changes. This study illustrates that the impact of human water use and reservoirs is nontrivial and can vary substantially per region and per season. Therefore, human influences should be included in projections of future drought characteristics, considering their large impact on the changing drought conditions.},
author = {Wanders, N. and Wada, Y.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.047},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Climate change,Drought characteristics,Human water use,Hydrological drought,PCR-GLOBWB,Reservoirs},
month = {jul},
pages = {208--220},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169414008427 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169414008427},
volume = {526},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Wang2017c,
abstract = {Increasing heat and water stress are important threats to wheat growth in rain-fed conditions. Using climate scenario-based projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), we analysed changes in the probability of heat stress around wheat flowering and relative yield loss due to water stress at six locations in eastern Australia. As a consequence of warmer average temperatures, wheat flowering occurred earlier, but the probability of heat stress around flowering still increased by about 3.8{\%}–6.2{\%}. Simulated potential yield across six sites increased on average by about 2.5{\%} regardless of the emission scenario. However, simulated water-limited yield tended to decline at wet and cool locations under future climate while increased at warm and dry locations. Soils with higher plant available water capacity (PAWC) showed a lower response of water-limited yield to rainfall changes except at very dry sites, which means soils with high PAWC were less affected by rainfall changes compared with soils with low PAWC. Our results also indicated that a drought stress index decreased with increasing PAWC and then stagnated at high PAWC. Under high emission scenario RCP8.5, drought stress was expected to decline or stay about the same due to elevated CO2 compensation effect. Therefore, to maintain or increase yield potential in response to the projected climate change, increasing cultivar tolerance to heat stress and improving crop management to reduce impacts of water stress on lower plant available water holding soils should be a priority for the genetic improvement of wheat in eastern Australia.},
author = {Wang, Bin and Liu, De Li and Asseng, Senthold and Macadam, Ian and Yu, Qiang},
doi = {10.1016/J.EJA.2017.08.005},
issn = {1161-0301},
journal = {European Journal of Agronomy},
month = {oct},
pages = {152--161},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Modelling wheat yield change under CO2 increase, heat and water stress in relation to plant available water capacity in eastern Australia}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030117301193?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {90},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wang2016,
abstract = {Small Island Developing States in the tropical western Pacific are among the most vulnerable to climate change. While a great deal of information on the observed climate change trends and their cause is available for many other regions and for the globe as a whole, much less information has been available specifically for the Pacific. Here, we show that warming over the past 50 years in the western Pacific is evident in recently homogenized tropical station data, and in gridded surface temperature data sets for the region. The warming has already emerged from the background climate variability. The observational data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model output are used to show that the observed warming was primarily caused by human-forced changes to the earth's radiative balance. Further warming is projected to occur in the same models under all three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) considered (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), with the magnitude far exceeding the warming to date under the two scenarios with higher emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).},
author = {Wang, Guomin and Power, Scott B. and Mcgree, Simon},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4395},
issn = {10970088},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {CMIP5,Pacific Islands,Surface temperature,Warming},
number = {2},
pages = {933--944},
title = {{Unambiguous warming in the western tropical Pacific primarily caused by anthropogenic forcing}},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wang2015c,
abstract = {Using monthly meteorological observation data at 633 sites in China during 1961-2012, the drought severity change has been investigated in terms of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with potential evapotranspiration estimated by the Penman-Monteith equation (SPEI{\_}pm). Significant wetting appeared to have occurred in northwestern corner of China (Xinjiang Province), especially in winter. The middle to northeastern Tibetan Plateau also experienced wetting in the last 52 years in general. Significantly, drying occurred in Central China (mostly in the middle Yellow River basin) and southwestern China (Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau) in spring and in autumn. There is no evidence of an increase in drought severity over China taking the whole country into account. On the contrary, the hyper-arid and arid zones got significantly wetter in the last 52 years as indicated by both SPI and SPEI.},
author = {Wang, Wen and Zhu, Ye and Xu, Rengui and Liu, Jintao},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-014-1436-5},
isbn = {1573-0840},
issn = {0921030X},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
number = {3},
pages = {2437--2451},
title = {{Drought severity change in China during 1961–2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI}},
volume = {75},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Wang2017d,
abstract = {The potential changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity, and the associated large-scale environmental conditions, for Vietnam and the South China Sea, posed by climate change, are examined using a high-resolution regional climate model system, PRECIS 2.1, to downscale the Met Office Hadley Centre CMIP5 model, HadGEM2-ES, to a resolution of 25km (PRECIS{\_}Had2). The ERA-Interim reanalysis is also downscaled to the same resolution (PRECIS{\_}ERAI) for comparison. An objective algorithm is used to identify and track the TCs. The PRECIS{\_}Had2 is evaluated for the period of 1990–2005 by comparing with the PRECIS{\_}ERAI and the observed best-track data of TCs. Compared to PRECIS{\_}ERAI, PRECIS{\_}Had2 represents the TC-associated large-scale environments reasonably well but shows stronger vertical wind shear over the South China Sea and during the summer southwesterly monsoon. For TCs, PRECIS{\_}Had2 is capable of capturing the TC distribution but shows a notable underestimation of very intense TCs. The analysis of the influence of global warming on the TC activity reveals that PRECIS{\_}Had2 simulates a pronounced seasonal shift of TC activity in a warmer climate for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with an increase in TC activity during winter related to the more favourable large-scale conditions, while a decrease in TCs associated with less favourable large-scale conditions is projected in summer. KeyWords:},
author = {Wang, Changgui and Liang, Ju and Hodges, Kevin I},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3046},
issn = {00359009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {705},
pages = {1844--1859},
title = {{Projections of tropical cyclones affecting Vietnam under climate change: downscaled HadGEM2-ES using PRECIS 2.1}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.3046},
volume = {143},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Daiwei2015,
abstract = {The timing and strength of wind-driven coastal upwelling along the eastern margins of major ocean basins regulate the productivity of critical fisheries and marine ecosystems by bringing deep and nutrient-rich waters to the sunlit surface, where photosynthesis can occur. How coastal upwelling regimes might change in a warming climate is therefore a question of vital importance. Although enhanced land-ocean differential heating due to greenhouse warming has been proposed to intensify coastal upwelling by strengthening alongshore winds, analyses of observations and previous climate models have provided little consensus on historical and projected trends in coastal upwelling. Here we show that there are strong and consistent changes in the timing, intensity and spatial heterogeneity of coastal upwelling in response to future warming in most Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUSs). An ensemble of climate models shows that by the end of the twenty-first century the upwelling season will start earlier, end later and become more intense at high but not low latitudes. This projected increase in upwelling intensity and duration at high latitudes will result in a substantial reduction of the existing latitudinal variation in coastal upwelling. These patterns are consistent across three of the four EBUSs (Canary, Benguela and Humboldt, but not California). The lack of upwelling intensification and greater uncertainty associated with the California EBUS may reflect regional controls associated with the atmospheric response to climate change. Given the strong linkages between upwelling and marine ecosystems, the projected changes in the intensity, timing and spatial structure of coastal upwelling may influence the geographical distribution of marine biodiversity.},
author = {Wang, Daiwei and Gouhier, Tarik C and Menge, Bruce A and Ganguly, Auroop R},
doi = {10.1038/nature14235},
isbn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7539},
pages = {390--394},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Intensification and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature14235},
volume = {518},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Wang2018,
author = {Wang, Jun and Yi, Si and Li, Mengya and Wang, Lei and Song, Chengcheng},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.224},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
pages = {228--234},
title = {{Effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, bathymetric change and typhoon tracks on storm flooding in the coastal areas of Shanghai}},
volume = {621},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wang2019,
abstract = {Spatial and temporal patterns in precipitation indices across Northwest China (NWC) during 1960–2011 were investigated using 11 previously defined indices. Results show that more than 50{\%} of stations for wet-related indices exhibit increasing trends and the largest increases appear in winter, while 72.1{\%} of stations display decreasing trends for consecutive dry days. The observing sites with positive trends are mainly distributed over mid-western NWC and northwestern Xinjiang, while the declining trends are concentrated in eastern NWC. Very wet days account for 23{\%} of the total rainfall on average, combined with similar patterns of spatial distribution between annual total rainfall and precipitation extremes, suggesting that extreme, rather than moderate, precipitation moderates the variations in total rainfall. After the mid-1980s, the NWC exhibits a wetting tendency, and precipitation extremes tend to increase with larger magnitudes and fluctuations. During 1987–2011, the prevailing eastward wind field anomalies at 850 hPa and statistically significant increasing trends of geopotential height are found over the Eurasian continent from spring to autumn, together with enhanced anticyclonic circulation near 47° N and 100° E, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events over NWC. While the circulation pattern in winter is distinct compared with other seasons, a convergence between eastward wind anomalies and southeasterly winds favors significantly positive increases in precipitation extremes. The well-organized wave train-like structures originated from the North Atlantic travel through Europe and central Asia and impact the precipitation extremes over NWC from spring to autumn during 1987–2011. Similar to wind field anomalies, the southeasterly water vapor fluxes are remarkable in winter. Generally, the approximately opposite circulation patterns dominate during 1960–1986 in comparison with those during 1987–2011.},
author = {Wang, Huailiang and Gao, Tao and Xie, Lian},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2645-8},
issn = {1434-4483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
number = {1},
pages = {977--995},
title = {{Extreme precipitation events during 1960–2011 for the Northwest China: space-time changes and possible causes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2645-8},
volume = {137},
year = {2019}
}
@article{WANG2019,
abstract = {Glacier tourism is an important type of nature-based tourism with great global potential. However, glacial landscapes and environments are seriously affected by global warming. This study used a scoping review method to explore integrated impacts of climate change on glaciers from the academic literature. All reviewed literature included a wide range of both research and non-research-based data or information. All literature was reviewed by summarizing findings of relevant research. It showed that climate warming has led to rapid melting and retreat of glacier landscapes, which has resulted in a huge impact on economic and social systems. The findings indicated that some glacial landscapes are declining in aesthetics or attractiveness while some landscapes face the prospect of sustained decline or even disappearance. This not only affects glacial cultural appreciation or mountain residents' beliefs, but increases the difficulty in entering and experiencing glaciers. Some points of tourism even face the risk of glacial disaster. Rapid glacial retreat or even disappearance will bring a loss of tourism revenues. At present, it is urgent to anticipate and adapt to these integrated impacts. In short, this study provides a general review of the impacts of climate change on glacial tourism and also some references for the adaptation of future glacial tourism to climate change.},
author = {Wang, Shijin and Zhou, Lan-Yue},
doi = {10.1016/j.accre.2019.06.006},
issn = {16749278},
journal = {Advances in Climate Change Research},
keywords = {Climate change,Glacier tourism,Integrated impacts},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {71--79},
title = {{Integrated impacts of climate change on glacier tourism}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927818301096 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1674927818301096},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Wang2017b,
author = {Wang, Lei and Wu, Zhengfang and He, Hongshi and Wang, Fuxue and Du, Haibo and Zong, Shengwei},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5002},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {aug},
pages = {271--283},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Changes in start, end, and length of frost-free season across Northeast China}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5002},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wang2019a,
abstract = {Southern Japan suffered from a succession of extreme events in summer 2018. Climatological 10-day precipitation in southern Japan depict the three-phase lifecycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the corresponding timing of the 2018 consecutive extreme events (indicated in the bottom). The sequential yet contrasting extreme events in Japan therefore reflect an amplified EASM projected in a warmer climate.},
annote = {doi: 10.1002/asl.933},
author = {Wang, Simon S.-Y. and Kim, Hyungjun and Coumou, Dim and Yoon, Jin-Ho and Zhao, Lin and Gillies, Robert R},
doi = {10.1002/asl.933},
issn = {1530-261X},
journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {e933},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Consecutive extreme flooding and heat wave in Japan: Are they becoming a norm?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.933},
volume = {20},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Wang2020d,
abstract = {The study analyzed synthetically spatiotemporal distribution and evolution status of moraine-dammed lakes and potential dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and revealed integrated risk degree of county-based glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) disaster by combining hazard of PDGLs, regional exposure, vulnerability of exposed elements, and adaptability and using the analytic hierarchy process and weighted comprehensive method. The results show there are 654 moraine-dammed lakes ({\textgreater} 0.018 km2) with a total area of 200.25 km2 in the QTP in the 2010s, of which 246 lakes with a total area of 78.38 km2 are identified as PDGLs. Compared with 1990s, the number of lakes decreased only by 2.22{\%}, whereas total lake area expanded by 25{\%}. All PDGLs area increased by 84.40{\%} and was higher significantly than 4.06{\%} of non-PDGLs. The zones at very high and high integrated risk of GLOF disasters are concentrated on the middle Himalayas, middle-eastern Nyainqentanglha, and southern Tanggula Mountain. On the county scale, Nyalam, Tingri, Dinggy{\^{e}}, Lhozhag, Zhongba, Gamba, Kangma of the Himalayas, and Nierong, Dingqing, Banbar, Baqing, Bomi, and Basu of the Nyainqentanglha are located in the very high-risk zone, whereas other areas have low and very low integrated risk. The regionalization results for GLOF disasters risk are consistent with the distribution of historical GLOF disaster sites.},
author = {Wang, Shijin and Che, Yanjun and Xinggang, Ma},
doi = {10.1007/s10346-020-01443-1},
issn = {1612-510X},
journal = {Landslides},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {2849--2863},
title = {{Integrated risk assessment of glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) disaster over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP)}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01443-1 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10346-020-01443-1 https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10346-020-01443-1},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
@article{ISI:000465416600001,
abstract = {After analysing systematically formation mechanism of snow disaster (SD), this study revealed spatial-temporal characteristics of historical disasters, snowfall events, disaster-formation environment, livestock overload, vulnerability of livestock and adaptability, finally evaluated integrated risk index (IRI) of the SDs over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) using ArcGIS method. Over the past more than 50years, the recorded large scale SDs occurred 238 times. Overall, the large scale SDs decreased, yet the small scale SDs increased in frequency. Particularly, the year of extreme snowfall event's occurrence did not correspond to the large scale SDs, in which a serious overloading rate with high livestock density is the key driver of the SD formation. The regions at higher IRI are mainly concentrated on mid-eastern and southwestern TP and appear a contiguous risk belt from northeast to southwest. Thinking about snowfall events and overload rate influencing mainly SD risk, it is necessary to improve forecasting and monitoring level of snowfall and snow cover extent, increase forage reserves, control strictly overload rate, implement livestock and grass balance strategy and enhances the scale of cattle and sheep housing and other infrastructures.},
address = {2-4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OR14 4RN, OXON, ENGLAND},
author = {Wang, Shijin and Zhou, Lanyue and Wei, Yanqiang},
doi = {10.1080/19475705.2018.1543211},
issn = {1947-5705},
journal = {Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk},
keywords = {Snow disaster,integrated risk assessm,risk index},
number = {1},
pages = {740--757},
publisher = {TAYLOR {\&} FRANCIS LTD},
title = {{Integrated risk assessment of snow disaster over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau}},
type = {Article},
volume = {10},
year = {2019}
}
@article{ISI:000414566600014,
abstract = {Understanding the changes in snow cover is essential for biological and hydrological processes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surrounding areas. However, the changes in snow cover phenology over the TP have not been well documented. Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily snow products and the Interactive Multi-sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) data, we reported daily cloud-free snow cover product over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) for 2000-2015. Snow cover start (SCS), melt (SCM) and duration (SCD) dates were calculated for each hydrological year, and their spatial and temporal variations were analyzed with elevation variations. Our results show no widespread decline in snow cover over the past fifteen years and the trends of snow cover phenology over the TP has high spatial heterogeneity. Later SCS, earlier SCM, and thus decreased SCD mainly occurred in the areas with elevation below 3500 m a.s.l., while regions in central and southwestern edges of the TP showed advanced SCS, delayed SCM and consequently longer SCD. The roles of temperature and precipitation on snow cover penology varied in different elevation zones, and the impact of both temperature and precipitation strengthened as elevation increases.},
address = {MACMILLAN BUILDING, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON N1 9XW, ENGLAND},
author = {Wang, Xiaoyue and Wu, Chaoyang and Wang, Huanjiong and Gonsamo, Alemu and Liu, Zhengjia},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-15208-9},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {14645},
publisher = {NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP},
title = {{No evidence of widespread decline of snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau over 2000–2015}},
type = {Article},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-15208-9},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wang2020f,
address = {Boston MA, USA},
author = {Wang, Yujie and Song, Lianchun and Hewitt, Chris and Golding, Nicola and Huang, Zili},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0121.1},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
language = {English},
number = {4},
pages = {729--744},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Improving China's Resilience to Climate-Related Risks: The China Framework for Climate Services}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/12/4/WCAS-D-19-0121.1.xml},
volume = {12},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wang2019b,
abstract = {Heat exposure has become a global threat to human health and life with increasing temperatures and frequency of extreme heat events. Considering risk as a function of both heat vulnerability and hazard intensity, this study examines whether poor urban dwellers residing in slums are exposed to higher temperature, adding to their vulnerable demographic and health conditions. Instead of being restricted by sampling size of pixels or other land surface zones, this study follows the intrinsic latent patterns of the heat phenomenon to examine the association between small clusters of slums and heat patterns. Remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST) datasets of moderate resolution are employed to derive the morphological features of the temperature patterns in the city of Ahmedabad, India at the local scale. The optimal representations of temperature pattern morphology are learnt automatically from temporally adjacent images without manually choosing model hyper-parameters. The morphological features are then evaluated to identify the local scale temperature pattern at slum locations. Results show that in particular locations with slums are exposed to a locally high temperature. More specifically, larger slums tend to be exposed to a more intense locally high temperature compared to smaller slums. Due to the small size of slums in Ahmedabad, it is hard to conclude whether slums are impacting the locally high temperature, or slums are more likely to be located in poorly built places already with a locally high temperature. This study complements the missing dimension of hazard investigation to heat-related risk analysis of slums. The study developed a workflow of exploring the temperature patterns at the local scale and examination of heat exposure of slums. It extends the conventional city scale urban temperature analysis into local scales and introduces morphological measurements as new parameters to quantify temperature patterns at a more detailed level.},
author = {Wang, Jiong and Kuffer, Monika and Sliuzas, Richard and Kohli, Divyani},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.324},
issn = {0048-9697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
keywords = {Ahmedabad,India,LST,Local scale,MODIS,Morphological patterns,Slums},
pages = {1805--1817},
title = {{The exposure of slums to high temperature: Morphology-based local scale thermal patterns}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718337811},
volume = {650},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Wang2018e,
abstract = {Urbanization has led to an obvious urban heat island (UHI) effect in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China. The ozone (O3) pollution in the YRD is getting worse. The UHI effect is a key factor that affects the O3 level. Understanding the influences of the UHI effect on O3 concentrations is necessary for improving air quality. In this study, the temporal and spatial relationship between UHI and O3 in the YRD during 2015 was investigated. The influence factors of UHI effect and O3 are both natural and artificial. Multi-source remote sensing data, which include land cover, land surface temperature (LST), Normalization Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and digital elevation model (DEM) data, were used to extract surface landscape elements. The results showed that: (1) the average hourly O3 concentration was 61.83 $\mu$g/m3 (30.92 ppb), the highest value was 105.32 $\mu$g/m3 (52.66 ppb) at 15:00 and the O3 peak was 82.50 $\mu$g/m3 (41.25 ppb) in September. The O3 concentrations and temperature have a similar variation trend both in diurnal and monthly. The O3 concentrations in coastal stations are higher than those inland. (2) The average daytime UHI intensity was 1.24 °C, and the daytime O3 concentration was 80.66 $\mu$g/m3 (40.33 ppb). There is a positive relationship between UHI and O3 in the YRD. The relationship in the central developed cities is higher than that in the northern and southern cities. (3) The related factors influencing UHI and O3 include surface landscape, topography and population. The LST and NDVI are most important among these factors. (4) Due to various geographical backgrounds, the UHI intensities and O3 concentrations show obvious spatial differences. This study provides a reference with which to better understand the relationship among UHI, O3 and related factors. Furthermore, the issues of atmospheric and energy transmission in this region deserve further study.},
author = {Wang, Yuanyuan and Du, Hongyu and Xu, Yanqing and Lu, Debin and Wang, Xiyuan and Guo, Zhongyang},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.050},
issn = {0048-9697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
keywords = {Land surface parameters,NO,Ozone,Surface urban heat island},
pages = {921--933},
title = {{Temporal and spatial variation relationship and influence factors on surface urban heat island and ozone pollution in the Yangtze River Delta, China}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718308052},
volume = {631-632},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wang2017g,
abstract = {In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating 'spread days' to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada's forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50{\%} increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.},
author = {Wang, Xianli and Parisien, Marc Andr{\'{e}} and Taylor, Steve W. and Candau, Jean No{\"{e}}l and Stralberg, Diana and Marshall, Ginny A. and Little, John M. and Flannigan, Mike D.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa5835},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Canadian forests,climate change,fire weather,spread days},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {025005},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century}},
url = {https://iopscience-iop-org.ezproxy.cul.columbia.edu/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5835 https://iopscience-iop-org.ezproxy.cul.columbia.edu/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5835/meta},
volume = {12},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wang2016e,
abstract = {It is challenging to identify metrics that best capture hurricane destructive potential and costs. Although it has been found that the sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear can both make considerable changes to the hurricane destructive potential metrics, it is still unknown which plays a more important role. Here we present a new method to reconstruct the historical wind structure of hurricanes that allows us, for the first time, to calculate the correlation of damage with integrated power dissipation and integrated kinetic energy of all hurricanes at landfall since 1988. We find that those metrics, which include the horizontal wind structure, rather than just maximum intensity, are much better correlated with the hurricane cost. The vertical wind shear over the main development region of hurricanes plays a more dominant role than the sea surface temperature in controlling these metrics and therefore also ultimately the cost of hurricanes.},
author = {Wang, S. and Toumi, R.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114005},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {hurricane cost,hurricane destructive potential,sea surface temperature,vertical wind shear,wind profile reconstruction},
month = {oct},
number = {11},
pages = {114005},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{On the relationship between hurricane cost and the integrated wind profile}},
url = {http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wang2013c,
abstract = {This study develops a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis approach, namely, a GEV tree approach that allows for both stationary and nonstationary cases. This approach is applied to a century-long homogenized daily temperature data set for Australia to assess changes in temperature extremes from 1910 to 2010. Changes in 20 year return values are estimated from the most suitable GEV distribution chosen from a GEV tree. Twenty year return values of extreme low minimum temperature are found to have warmed strongly over the century in most parts of the continent. There is also a tendency toward warming of extreme high maximum temperatures, but it is weaker than that for minimum temperatures, with the majority of stations not showing significant trends. The observed changes in extreme temperatures are broadly consistent with observed changes in mean temperatures and in the frequency of temperatures above the ninetieth and below the tenth percentile (i.e., extreme indices). The GEV tree analysis provides insight into behavior of extremes with re-occurrence times of several years to decades that are of importance to engineering design/applications, while extreme indices represent moderately extreme events with re-occurrence times of a year or shorter. Key Points Strong warming in Australian extreme low temperatures over the period 1910-2010 Warming in Australian extreme high temperatures over 1910-2010 relatively weak Changes in extremes broadly consistent with changes in relevant seasonal means {\textcopyright}2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
author = {Wang, Xiaolan L. and Trewin, Blair and Feng, Yang and Jones, David},
doi = {10.1002/grl.50132},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {generalized Pareto distribution,generalized extreme value distribution,historical changes in temperature extremes,surface sir temperature extremes},
month = {feb},
number = {3},
pages = {573--578},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Historical changes in Australian temperature extremes as inferred from extreme value distribution analysis}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50132},
volume = {40},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Wang2013b,
author = {Wang, Chi-Hsiang and Wang, Xiaoming and Khoo, Yong Bing},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-013-0582-5},
issn = {0921-030X},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {549--567},
title = {{Extreme wind gust hazard in Australia and its sensitivity to climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-013-0582-5},
volume = {67},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Ward2016,
author = {Ward, Raymond D. and Friess, Daniel A. and Day, Richard H. and Mackenzie, Richard A.},
doi = {10.1002/ehs2.1211},
issn = {2096-4129},
journal = {Ecosystem Health and Sustainability},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {e01211},
title = {{Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: a region by region overview}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1002/ehs2.1211},
volume = {2},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Ward2013a,
abstract = {A reliable public electricity supply depends in part on a reliable electricity grid system to transmit and distribute electrical power from generating stations to consumers. The grid system comprises many components that are exposed to the weather and can experience faults as a result of weather events. As climate change is expected to alter the number and severity of weather events, then the reliability of the grid and hence the reliability of electricity supplies can be affected. This paper reviews the effects of weather events on grid systems, illustrated by reference to experience on the grid systems in Europe and North America. It is shown that the effects on the high voltage transmission networks are different from the effects on lower voltage distribution networks and that generally the most significant extreme weather is high winds. Some remedial measures that can mitigate the effects of weather events are also described. {\textcopyright} 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.},
author = {Ward, David M.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0916-z},
issn = {01650009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
keywords = {Atmospheric Sciences,Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts},
month = {nov},
number = {1},
pages = {103--113},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{The effect of weather on grid systems and the reliability of electricity supply}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0916-z},
volume = {121},
year = {2013}
}
@article{WardJones2019,
abstract = {An increase in retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) activity has been observed in the Arctic in recent decades. However, a gap exists between observations in high Arctic polar desert regions where mean annual ground temperatures are as cold as -16.5 °C and vegetation coverage is sparse. In this study, we present a ∼30 year record of annual RTS observations (frequency and distribution) from 1989 to 2018 within the Eureka Sound Lowlands, Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg Islands. Record summer warmth in 2011 and 2012 promoted rapid RTS initialization, increasing active slumps from 100 in a given year or less to over 200 regionally and promoting RTS initiation in previously unaffected terrain. Differential GPS and remote sensing observations of 12 RTSs initiated during this period (2011-2018) provided a mean headwall retreat rate for all RTSs of 6.2 m yr-1 and for specific RTSs up to 26.7 m yr-1. To better understand the dynamics of climate and terrain factors controlling RTS headwall retreat rates we explored RTS interactions by correlating headwall retreat with climate factors (thawing degree days, annual rainfall and annual snowfall) and terrain factors (aspect and slope). Our findings indicate a sensitivity of cold permafrost in the high Arctic to climate-driven thermokarst initiation, but the decoupling of RTS dynamics from climate appears to occur over time for individual RTS as terrain factors take on a greater role controlling headwall retreat. Detailed observations of thermokarst development in a high Arctic polar desert permafrost setting are important as it demonstrates the sensitivity of this system to changes in summer temperatures and highlight differences to changes occurring in other Arctic permafrost regions.},
author = {{Ward Jones}, Melissa K. and Pollard, Wayne H. and Jones, Benjamin M.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab12fd},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {Eureka sound lowlands,climate change,high arctic,landscape change,permafrost,retrogressive thaw slumps,thermokarst},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {055006},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Rapid initialization of retrogressive thaw slumps in the Canadian high Arctic and their response to climate and terrain factors}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab12fd},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Warszawski2014,
abstract = {The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {arXiv:1408.1149},
author = {Warszawski, Lila and Frieler, Katja and Huber, Veronika and Piontek, Franziska and Serdeczny, Olivia and Schewe, Jacob},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1312330110},
eprint = {arXiv:1408.1149},
isbn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
month = {mar},
number = {9},
pages = {3228--3232},
pmid = {24344316},
title = {{The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1312330110},
volume = {111},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Wasko2019,
abstract = {Despite the expectation that increases in rainfall with climatic change will result in increases in pluvial flooding, there is more historical evidence for decreases in flood magnitude. In Australia, as in many other parts of the world, flood magnitudes are mostly decreasing, despite increasing rainfall extremes. Here, we show how changes in soil moisture have led to decreasing flood magnitudes while rainfall extremes have been increasing. Using gauged streamflow, catchment average rainfall, and modelled soil moisture data across Australia we confirm that streamflow peaks (or floods) that occur at least once a year are strongly related to both the peak rainfall causing the flood and the antecedent soil moisture conditions preceding the storm event. Regions where the magnitude of the peak flow has decreased are visually and statistically correlated to regions of decreasing soil moisture. Flood magnitudes are more likely to increase only for the rarest events, with increases in rainfall offset by decreases in soil moisture for more frequent events. A recurrence interval dependent tipping point is identified beyond which trends in catchment rainfall outweigh those of soil moisture trends and dominate the flood response. For regions where soil moisture has decreased, this tipping point occurs at an average recurrence interval of ten years or more. As most studies investigating trends in flooding generally use annual maxima, changes in soil moisture are likely to be the dominant mechanism behind observed flood trends. Hence changes in soil moisture conditions need to be considered when predicting catchment flood response due to climatic change.},
author = {Wasko, Conrad and Nathan, Rory},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.054},
issn = {0022-1694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
pages = {432--441},
title = {{Influence of changes in rainfall and soil moisture on trends in flooding}},
volume = {575},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Watson2017b,
abstract = {Ocean acidification poses a range of threats to marine invertebrates; however, the emerging and likely widespread effects of rising carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels on marine invertebrate behaviour are still little understood. Here, we show that ocean acidification alters and impairs key ecological behaviours of the predatory cone snail Conus marmoreus . Projected near-future seawater CO 2 levels (975 µatm) increased activity in this coral reef molluscivore more than threefold (from less than 4 to more than 12 mm min −1 ) and decreased the time spent buried to less than one-third when compared with the present-day control conditions (390 µatm). Despite increasing activity, elevated CO 2 reduced predation rate during predator–prey interactions with control-treated humpbacked conch, Gibberulus gibberulus gibbosus ; 60{\%} of control predators successfully captured and consumed their prey, compared with only 10{\%} of elevated CO 2 predators. The alteration of key ecological behaviours of predatory invertebrates by near-future ocean acidification could have potentially far-reaching implications for predator–prey interactions and trophic dynamics in marine ecosystems. Combined evidence that the behaviours of both species in this predator–prey relationship are altered by elevated CO 2 suggests food web interactions and ecosystem structure will become increasingly difficult to predict as ocean acidification advances over coming decades.},
author = {Watson, Sue-Ann and Fields, Jennifer B. and Munday, Philip L.},
doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2016.0797},
issn = {1744-9561},
journal = {Biology Letters},
keywords = {behaviour,ecology,environmental science},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {20160797},
publisher = {The Royal Society},
title = {{Ocean acidification alters predator behaviour and reduces predation rate}},
url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0797},
volume = {13},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Watt2019,
author = {Watt, Michael S and Kirschbaum, Miko U F and Moore, John R and Pearce, H Grant and Bulman, Lindsay S and Brockerhoff, Eckehard G and Melia, Nathanael},
doi = {10.1093/forestry/cpy024},
issn = {0015-752X},
journal = {Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {1--15},
title = {{Assessment of multiple climate change effects on plantation forests in New Zealand}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/forestry/article/92/1/1/5065106},
volume = {92},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Watts2018,
author = {Watts, Nick and Amann, Markus and Arnell, Nigel and Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja and Belesova, Kristine and Berry, Helen and Bouley, Timothy and Boykoff, Maxwell and Byass, Peter and Cai, Wenjia and Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid and Chambers, Jonathan and Daly, Meaghan and Dasandi, Niheer and Davies, Michael and Depoux, Anneliese and Dominguez-Salas, Paula and Drummond, Paul and Ebi, Kristie L and Ekins, Paul and Montoya, Lucia Fernandez and Fischer, Helen and Georgeson, Lucien and Grace, Delia and Graham, Hilary and Hamilton, Ian and Hartinger, Stella and Hess, Jeremy and Kelman, Ilan and Kiesewetter, Gregor and Kjellstrom, Tord and Kniveton, Dominic and Lemke, Bruno and Liang, Lu and Lott, Melissa and Lowe, Rachel and Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo and Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime and Maslin, Mark and McAllister, Lucy and Mikhaylov, Slava Jankin and Milner, James and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Morrissey, Karyn and Murray, Kris and Nilsson, Maria and Neville, Tara and Oreszczyn, Tadj and Owfi, Fereidoon and Pearman, Olivia and Pencheon, David and Pye, Steve and Rabbaniha, Mahnaz and Robinson, Elizabeth and Rockl{\"{o}}v, Joacim and Saxer, Olivia and Sch{\"{u}}tte, Stefanie and Semenza, Jan C and Shumake-Guillemot, Joy and Steinbach, Rebecca and Tabatabaei, Meisam and Tomei, Julia and Trinanes, Joaquin and Wheeler, Nicola and Wilkinson, Paul and Gong, Peng and Montgomery, Hugh and Costello, Anthony},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32594-7},
issn = {01406736},
journal = {The Lancet},
month = {dec},
number = {10163},
pages = {2479--2514},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140673618325947},
volume = {392},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Weatherdon2016b,
author = {Weatherdon, Lauren V. and Magnan, Alexandre K. and Rogers, Alex D. and Sumaila, U. Rashid and Cheung, William W. L.},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2016.00048},
issn = {2296-7745},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
keywords = {Aquaculture,Climate change impacts,Coastal tourism,Ecosystem-based adaptation,Fisheries,Food security,Human health,Ocean impacts},
month = {apr},
pages = {48},
publisher = {Frontiers Media S. A},
title = {{Observed and Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Fisheries, Aquaculture, Coastal Tourism, and Human Health: An Update}},
url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/Article/10.3389/fmars.2016.00048/abstract},
volume = {3},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Webb2018,
author = {Webb, Nicholas P and Pierre, Caroline},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000766},
issn = {23284277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {286--295},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017EF000766},
volume = {6},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Webb2020,
abstract = {Wind erosion and blowing dust threaten food security, human health and ecosystem services across global drylands. Monitoring wind erosion is needed to inform management, with explicit monitoring objectives being critical for interpreting and translating monitoring information into management actions. Monitoring objectives should establish quantitative guidelines for determining the relationship of wind erosion indicators to management benchmarks that reflect tolerable erosion and dust production levels considering impacts to, for example, ecosystem processes, species, agricultural production systems and human well-being. Here we: 1) critically review indicators of wind erosion and blowing dust that are currently available to practitioners; and 2) describe approaches for establishing benchmarks to support wind erosion assessments and management. We find that while numerous indicators are available for monitoring wind erosion, only a subset have been used routinely and most monitoring efforts have focused on air quality impacts of dust. Indicators need to be related to the causal soil and vegetation controls in eroding areas to directly inform management. There is great potential to use regional standardized soil and vegetation monitoring datasets, remote sensing and models to provide new information on wind erosion across landscapes. We identify best practices for establishing benchmarks for these indicators based on experimental studies, mechanistic and empirical models, and distributions of indicator values obtained from monitoring data at historic or existing reference sites. The approaches to establishing benchmarks described here have enduring utility as monitoring technologies change and enable managers to evaluate co-benefits and potential trade-offs among ecosystem services as affected by wind erosion management.},
author = {Webb, Nicholas P. and Kachergis, Emily and Miller, Scott W. and McCord, Sarah E. and Bestelmeyer, Brandon T. and Brown, Joel R. and Chappell, Adrian and Edwards, Brandon L. and Herrick, Jeffrey E. and Karl, Jason W. and Leys, John F. and Metz, Loretta J. and Smarik, Stephen and Tatarko, John and {Van Zee}, Justin W. and Zwicke, Greg},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105881},
issn = {1470160X},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
keywords = {Adaptive management,Aeolian,Air quality,Dust,Ecological thresholds,Reference site},
month = {mar},
pages = {105881},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Indicators and benchmarks for wind erosion monitoring, assessment and management}},
volume = {110},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Webb2009,
abstract = {In 1986, the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) developed and published an eleven point Hailstorm Intensity Scale and this has been used to characterise more than 2500 hailstorms known to have occurred in Britain and Ireland since the first documented hailstorm event of 1141 AD; this scale has recently (2005) been revised with additional parameters. Most analyses relate to Great Britain, but reference is made to the more extreme recorded events in Ireland. The most intense hailstorm in these Islands reached intensity H8 on the TORRO international scale which extends from intensities H0 to H10. For the 75 years 1930 to 2004 this paper examines significant, damaging (H2 or more intensity) storms in respect of seasonal frequency and geographical distribution. This paper also discusses the climatology (including diurnal incidence) of the less common, but potentially devastating storms of H5 intensity or more, using the much longer period 1800 to 2004 and with particular attention to hail swath lengths and widths. The synoptic origins for these major events, where known, are discussed, with particular reference to Lamb's classification of weather types across the British Isles from 1861 onwards. More than 2500 British and Irish hailstorms are recorded in TORRO's database of which over 1300 are of hailstorm intensity H2 or more, including 156 British storms since 1800 that reached intensity H4–5 or more on the TORRO H scale. The geographical distribution of hailstorms in the British Isles shows that the highest frequency of significant, damaging storms (H2 or more intensity with hailstones usually over 15 mm diameter) is in central and eastern England, with the East Midlands, East Anglia and the lower Thames Valley most conspicuous when the incidences are mapped. Since 1870 the severest (H5 intensity or greater) events have been predominantly associated with cyclonic, southerly or south-easterly weather types; however a significant minority (19{\%}) occurred with an anticyclonic element in the classification. For storms of this severity (e.g. with potential for severe structural damage, pitting of aircraft bodywork and even the risk of serious injuries), reporting will have been more consistent over a longer period. These destructive storms, (the most recent “cluster” of which was between 1992 and 1997) have typically followed a track from the S, SSW or SW to the N, NNE or NE with a swath length often 25 km or more (reaching 335 km in one case) and a swath width sometimes in excess of 10 km. Analysis of the database since 1800 indicates a very conspicuous July maximum for these more extreme (H5 intensity plus) events.},
author = {Webb, J.D.C. and Elsom, D.M. and Meaden, G.T.},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.10.034},
issn = {01698095},
journal = {Atmospheric Research},
month = {jul},
number = {1-3},
pages = {587--606},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Severe hailstorms in Britain and Ireland, a climatological survey and hazard assessment}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809508003153?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809508003153},
volume = {93},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Webb2010,
abstract = {Low-lying atoll islands are widely perceived to erode in response to measured and future sea-level rise. Using historical aerial photography and satellite images this study presents the first quantitative analysis of physical changes in 27 atoll islands in the central Pacific over a 19 to 61yr period. This period of analysis corresponds with instrumental records that show a rate of sea-level rise of 2.0mm yr−1 in the Pacific. Results show that 86{\%} of islands remained stable (43{\%}) or increased in area (43{\%}) over the timeframe of analysis. Largest decadal rates of increase in island area range between 0.1 to 5.6ha. Only 14{\%} of study islands exhibited a net reduction in island area. Despite small net changes in area, islands exhibited larger gross changes. This was expressed as changes in the planform configuration and position of islands on reef platforms. Modes of island change included: ocean shoreline displacement toward the lagoon; lagoon shoreline progradation; and, extension of the ends of elongate islands. Collectively these adjustments represent net lagoonward migration of islands in 65{\%} of cases. Results contradict existing paradigms of island response and have significant implications for the consideration of island stability under ongoing sea-level rise in the central Pacific. First, islands are geomorphologically persistent features on atoll reef platforms and can increase in island area despite sea-level change. Second, islands are dynamic landforms that undergo a range of physical adjustments in responses to changing boundary conditions, of which sea level is just one factor. Third, erosion of island shorelines must be reconsidered in the context of physical adjustments of the entire island shoreline as erosion may be balanced by progradation on other sectors of shorelines. Results indicate that the style and magnitude of geomorphic change will vary between islands. Therefore, island nations must place a high priority on resolving the precise styles and rates of change that will occur over the next century and reconsider the implications for adaption.},
author = {Webb, Arthur P. and Kench, Paul S.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.003},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
month = {jun},
number = {3},
pages = {234--246},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: Evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818110001013?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818110001013},
volume = {72},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Webber2017b,
abstract = {This article examines the increasing emphasis amongst climate scientists and development professionals on providing ‘climate services' in order to inform adaptation decisions in vulnerable countries. The climate service business model hopes to provide ‘on demand' and ‘actionable' information products that are useful for policy makers. Drawing from literature across the natural and social sciences, we outline potential benefits and limits of this model of providing climate information and products, as well as recommendations for improving climate services. We argue that a shift away from the commercialized model of climate services may be necessary to ensure the creation, and consistent delivery, of products that practitioners in the developing world are able to employ in making adaptation decisions.},
author = {Webber, Sophie and Donner, Simon D.},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.424},
issn = {17577780},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {e424},
title = {{Climate service warnings: cautions about commercializing climate science for adaptation in the developing world}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.424},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Webber2017,
author = {Webber, Heidi and Martre, Pierre and Asseng, Senthold and Kimball, Bruce and White, Jeffrey and Ottman, Michael and Wall, Gerard W. and {De Sanctis}, Giacomo and Doltra, Jordi and Grant, Robert and Kassie, Belay and Maiorano, Andrea and Olesen, J{\o}rgen E. and Ripoche, Dominique and Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi and Semenov, Mikhail A. and Stratonovitch, Pierre and Ewert, Frank},
doi = {10.1016/j.fcr.2015.10.009},
issn = {03784290},
journal = {Field Crops Research},
month = {feb},
pages = {21--35},
title = {{Canopy temperature for simulation of heat stress in irrigated wheat in a semi-arid environment: A multi-model comparison}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378429015300678},
volume = {202},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Weber2018a,
author = {Weber, Juliane and Gotzens, Fabian and Witthaut, Dirk},
doi = {10.1016/j.egypro.2018.10.004},
issn = {18766102},
journal = {Energy Procedia},
month = {oct},
pages = {22--28},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Impact of strong climate change on the statistics of wind power generation in Europe}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1876610218308166},
volume = {153},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wegmann2018,
abstract = {The Warm Arctic–cold Siberia surface temperature pattern during recent boreal winter is suggested to be triggered by the ongoing decrease of Arctic autumn sea ice concentration and has been observed together with an increase in mid-latitude extreme events and a meridionalization of tropospheric circulation. However, the exact mechanism behind this dipole temperature pattern is still under debate, since model experiments with reduced sea ice show conflicting results. We use the early twentieth-century Arctic warming (ETCAW) as a case study to investigate the link between September sea ice in the Barents–Kara Sea (BKS) and the Siberian temperature evolution. Analyzing a variety of long-term climate reanalyses, we find that the overall winter temperature and heat flux trend occurs with the reduction of September BKS sea ice. Tropospheric conditions show a strengthened atmospheric blocking over the BKS, strengthening the advection of cold air from the Arctic to central Siberia on its eastern flank, together with a reduction of warm air advection by the westerlies. This setup is valid for both the ETCAW and the current Arctic warming period.},
author = {Wegmann, Martin and Orsolini, Yvan and Zolina, Olga},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaa0b7},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {2},
pages = {25009},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Warm Arctic−cold Siberia: comparing the recent and the early 20th-century Arctic warmings}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa0b7},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@incollection{Wehner2017,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Wehner, M.F. and Arnold, J.R. and Knutson, T. and Kunkel, K.E. and LeGrande, A.N.},
booktitle = {Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I},
doi = {10.7930/J0CJ8BNN},
editor = {Wuebbles, D.J. and Fahey, D.W. and Hibbard, K.A. and Dokken, D.J. and Stewart, B.C. and Maycock, T.K.},
pages = {231--256},
publisher = {U.S. Global Change Research Program},
title = {{Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires}},
url = {https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/8/},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wehof2014,
abstract = {During 2012 and 2013, the State of Florida was impacted by three tropical weather systems (Debby, Isaac, and Sandy) that caused significantly more beach erosion than similar, traditionally classified storms. Here, the storms are reclassified using the more recently developed Storm Erosion Index (SEI) which takes into consideration both the storm tide and storm waves, as well as the storm duration. The SEI has been shown previously to accurately represent the impact of coastal storms at a number of other sites (Miller and Livermont, 2008). When reanalyzed with the SEI, Tropical Storm Debby was found to be more significant in terms of beach erosion potential than any other storm in the record (since 1996), ranking as a “Category 5” storm with a return period of 23.4 years. Hurricane Isaac, which followed closely on the heels of Debby, ranked as a “Category 2” storm with an associated return period of 3 years. A sensitivity analysis performed on the results indicated that the wave steepness threshold used to separate erosion and accretion was particularly important during Isaac, as the conditions throughout the storm remained close to the threshold. While Hurricane Sandy is more known for the devastation it caused in the northeast, it also caused significant beach erosion in the State of Florida. The SEI more accurately reflects the significance of the beach erosion experienced during Sandy, and ranks the storm ahead of all of the other storms in the record (since 1994), including Hurricanes Frances, Gordon, and Jeanne which all made landfall near the area considered. Overall, Sandy registered as a “Category 5” storm in terms of beach erosion potential, with a return period of 40.5 years.},
author = {Wehof, Jennifer and Miller, Jon K. and Engle, Jason},
doi = {10.9753/icce.v34.management.39},
file = {::},
issn = {2156-1028},
journal = {Coastal Engineering Proceedings},
keywords = {Florida,beach erosion,coastal storm,erosion index},
month = {oct},
number = {34},
pages = {39},
title = {{Application of the storm erosion index (SEI) to three unique storms}},
url = {https://journals.tdl.org/icce/index.php/icce/article/view/7928},
volume = {1},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Weichselgartner2019,
author = {Weichselgartner, Juergen and Arheimer, Berit},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0087.1},
issn = {1948-8327},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {385--399},
title = {{Evolving Climate Services into Knowledge–Action Systems}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0087.1},
volume = {11},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Weiss2018,
abstract = {Anthropogenically released CO2 accumulates in the global carbon cycle and is anticipated to imbalance global carbon fluxes [1]. For example, increased atmospheric CO2 induces a net air-to-sea flux where the oceans take up large amounts of atmospheric CO2 (i.e., ocean acidification [2-5]). Research on ocean acidification is ongoing, and studies have demonstrated the consequences for ecosystems and organismal biology with major impacts on marine food webs, nutrient cycles, overall productivity, and biodiversity [6-9]. Yet, surprisingly little is known about the impact of anthropogenically caused CO2 on freshwater systems due to their more complex biogeochemistry. The current consensus, yet lacking data evidence, is that anthropogenic CO2 does indeed affect freshwater carbon hydrogeochemistry, causing increased pCO2 in freshwater bodies [10-13]. We analyzed long-term data from four freshwater reservoirs and observed a continuous pCO2 increase associated with a decrease in pH, indicating that not only the oceans but also inland waters are accumulating CO2. We tested the effect of pCO2-dependent freshwater acidification using the cosmopolite crustacean Daphnia. For general validity, control pCO2-levels were based on the present global pCO2 average. Treatments were selected with very high pCO2 levels, assuming a continuous non-linear increase of pCO2, reflecting worst-case-scenario future pCO2 levels. Such levels of elevated pCO2 reduced the ability of Daphnia to sense its predators and form adequate inducible defenses. We furthermore determined that pCO2 and not the resulting reduction in pH impairs predator perception. If pCO2 alters chemical communication between freshwater species, this perturbs intra- and interspecific information transfer, which may affect all trophic levels.},
author = {Weiss, Linda C and P{\"{o}}tter, Leonie and Steiger, Annika and Kruppert, Sebastian and Frost, Uwe and Tollrian, Ralph},
doi = {10.1016/j.cub.2017.12.022},
issn = {09609822},
journal = {Current Biology},
keywords = {Chaoborus,Daphnia longicephala,Daphnia pulex,Notonecta,climate change,freshwater acidification,inducible defenses,pCO(2),pH,phenotypic plasticity},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {327--332.e3},
pmid = {29337079},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Rising pCO2 in Freshwater Ecosystems Has the Potential to Negatively Affect Predator-Induced Defenses in Daphnia}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S096098221731655X},
volume = {28},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Weisse2015,
abstract = {The term ``climate services'' is commonly used to refer to the generation of climate information, their transformation according to user needs and the subsequent use of the information in decision making processes. More generally, the concept also involves contextualization of information and knowledge. In the following a series of examples from the marine sector is described covering the generation, transformation and the use of climate information in decision making processes while contextualization is not considered. Examples comprise applications from naval architecture, offshore wind and more generally renewable energies, shipping emissions, and tidal basin water exchange and eutrophication levels. Moreover effects of climate change on coastal flood damages and the need for coastal protection are considered. Based on the analysis of these examples it is concluded that reliable climate information in data sparse regions is urgently needed, that for many applications historical climate information may be as or even more important as future long-term projections, and that the specific needs of different sectors substantially depend on their planning horizons.},
author = {Weisse, Ralf and Bisling, Peter and Gaslikova, Lidia and Geyer, Beate and Groll, Nikolaus and Hortamani, Mahboubeh and Matthias, Volker and Maneke, Moritz and Meinke, Insa and Meyer, Elke MI and Schwichtenberg, Fabian and Stempinski, Florian and Wiese, Frauke and W{\"{o}}ckner-Kluwe, Katja},
doi = {10.1186/s40322-015-0029-0},
isbn = {4032201500290},
issn = {2194-6434},
journal = {Earth Perspectives},
keywords = {climate service,coastal protection,energies,hindcast,naval architecture,north sea,offshore wind,renewable,ship emissions},
number = {1},
pages = {3},
title = {{Climate services for marine applications in Europe}},
url = {http://www.earth-perspectives.com/content/2/1/3},
volume = {2},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Wernberg2013,
abstract = {In 2011 the waters along the west coast of Australia—a global hotspot of biodiversity—experienced an unprecedented (in recorded times) warming event with warming anomalies of 2–4 °C that persisted for more than ten weeks. Now research shows that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, invertebrates and fishes were significantly different following the warming event.},
author = {Wernberg, Thomas and Smale, Dan A. and Tuya, Fernando and Thomsen, Mads S. and Langlois, Timothy J. and de Bettignies, Thibaut and Bennett, Scott and Rousseaux, Cecile S.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1627},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Marine biology,change ecology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {78--82},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1627},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Wernberg2016a,
abstract = {Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.},
author = {Wernberg, Thomas and Bennett, Scott and Babcock, Russell C and Bettignies, Thibaut De and Cure, Katherine and Depczynski, Martial and Dufois, Francois and Fromont, Jane and Fulton, Christopher J and Hovey, Renae K and Harvey, Euan S and Holmes, Thomas H and Kendrick, Gary A and Radford, Ben and Santana-garcon, Julia and Saunders, Benjamin J and Smale, Dan A and Thomsen, Mads S and Tuckett, Chenae A and Tuya, Fernando and de Bettignies, Thibaut and Cure, Katherine and Depczynski, Martial and Dufois, Francois and Fromont, Jane and Fulton, Christopher J and Hovey, Renae K and Harvey, Euan S and Holmes, Thomas H and Kendrick, Gary A and Radford, Ben and Santana-garcon, Julia and Saunders, Benjamin J and Smale, Dan A and Thomsen, Mads S and Tuckett, Chenae A and Tuya, Fernando and Vanderklift, Mathew A and Wilson, Shaun},
doi = {10.1126/science.aad8745},
issn = {0036-8075},
journal = {Science},
month = {jul},
number = {6295},
pages = {169--172},
pmid = {27387951},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem}},
volume = {353},
year = {2016}
}
@book{Wester2019,
abstract = {Mountains make up 24{\%} of the world's land area, are home to 20{\%} of the world's population, provide 60–80{\%} of the world's fresh water, and harbour 50{\%} of the world's biodiversity hotspots (well-established). The United Nations recognized the importance of mountain ecosystems, both for conserving biological diversity and for sustaining humanity, in Chap. 13of Agenda 21. More generally, ecosystem diversity, species diversity, genetic diversity, and functional diversity all play key roles in the ecosystem services that benefit people and communities (well-established).},
address = {Cham, Switzerland},
author = {Wester, Philippus and Mishra, Arabinda and Mukherji, Aditi and Shrestha, Arun},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1},
editor = {Wester, Philippus and Mishra, Arabinda and Mukherji, Aditi and Shrestha, Arun Bhakta},
isbn = {978-3-319-92287-4},
pages = {627},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Westerling2016,
abstract = {Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50{\%} of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affe...},
author = {Westerling, Anthony Leroy},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2015.0178},
issn = {0962-8436},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
keywords = {climate,forest,wildfire},
month = {jun},
number = {1696},
pages = {20150178},
publisher = {The Royal Society},
title = {{Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring}},
url = {http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/lookup/doi/10.1098/rstb.2015.0178},
volume = {371},
year = {2016}
}
@article{WHITEHEAD2009,
abstract = {Abstract It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and...},
author = {Whitehead, P. G. and Wilby, R. L. and Battarbee, R. W. and Kernan, M. and Wade, A. J.},
doi = {10.1623/hysj.54.1.101},
issn = {0262-6667},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
keywords = {catchments,changement climatique,climate change,ecology,estuaires,estuaries,hydrochemistry,hydrochimie,lacs,lakes,qualit{\'{e}} de l'eau,rivers,rivi{\`{e}}res,water quality,{\'{e}}cologie},
month = {feb},
number = {1},
pages = {101--123},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis Group},
title = {{A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality}},
url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1623/hysj.54.1.101},
volume = {54},
year = {2009}
}
@techreport{SimonHalesSariKovatsSimonLloyd2014,
abstract = {Better evidence is required regarding future risks to health from global climate change in order to inform mitigation (low carbon) and adaptation (public health) policy development. Future climate change is likely to affect proximal and distal (upstream) risk factors for a wide range of health outcomes, but only some of these causal pathways can be modelled using currently available methods and at the global level. This assessment uses scenarios to estimate the effect of climate change on selected health outcomes in the context of uncertain climate and global health futures. Future cause-specific mortality in 2030 and 2050 (in the absence of climate change) was estimated using regression methods for three development futures: base case, high growth and no growth scenarios. Global climate-health models were developed for a range of health outcomes known to be sensitive to climate change: heat-related mortality in elderly people, mortality associated with coastal flooding, mortality associated with diarrhoeal disease in children aged under 15 years, malaria population at risk and mortality, dengue population at risk and mortality, undernutrition (stunting) and associated mortality. Future climate change was characterized by a medium-high emissions scenario (A1b) run through three climate models. The counterfactual was a future world with population growth and economic development but with baseline (1961–1990) climate. The annual burden of mortality due to climate change was estimated for world regions. For most pathways considered, the results reflect both positive and negative impacts on health. Model uncertainty was assessed for each outcome, as far as technically possible. Compared with a future without climate change, the following additional deaths are projected for the year 2030: 38 000 due to heat exposure in elderly people, 48 000 due to diarrhoea, 60 000 due to malaria, and 95 000 due to childhood undernutrition. The World Health Organization (WHO) projects a dramatic decline in child mortality, and this is reflected in declining climate change impacts from child malnutrition and diarrhoeal disease between 2030 and 2050. On the other hand, by the 2050s, deaths related to heat exposure (over 100 000 per year) are projected to increase. Impacts are greatest under a low economic growth scenario because of higher rates of mortality projected in low- and middle-income countries. By 2050, impacts of climate change on mortality are projected to be greatest in south Asia. These results indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on child health by the 2030s. Under a base case socioeconomic scenario, we estimate approximately 250 000 additional deaths due to climate change per year between 2030 and 2050. These numbers do not represent a prediction of the overall impacts of climate change on health, since we could not quantify several important causal pathways. A main limitation of this assessment is the inability of current models to account for major pathways of potential health impact, such as the effects of economic damage, major heatwave events, river flooding and water scarcity. The assessment does not consider the impacts of},
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {WHO},
editor = {Hales, Simon and Kovats, Sari and Lloyd, Simon and Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid},
file = {::},
isbn = {9789241507691},
pages = {115},
publisher = {World Health Organization (WHO)},
title = {{Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s}},
url = {https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/134014},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Wickstrom2020,
abstract = {Abstract We report an increase in winter (DJF) cyclone densities in the areas around Svalbard and in northwestern Barents Sea and a decrease in cyclone densities in southeastern Barents Sea during 1979?2016. Despite high interannual variability, the trends are significant at the 90{\%} confidence level. The changes appear as a result of a shift into a more meridional winter storm track in the high-latitude North Atlantic, associated with a positive trend in the Scandinavian Pattern. A significant decrease in the Brunt?V{\"{a}}is{\"{a}}l{\"{a}} frequency east of Svalbard and a significant increase in the Eady Growth Rate north of Svalbard indicate increased baroclinicity, favouring enhanced cyclone activity in these regions. For the first time, we apply composite analysis to explicitly address regional consequences of these wintertime changes in the high-latitude North Atlantic. We find a tendency toward a warmer and more moist atmospheric state in the Barents Sea and over Svalbard with increased cyclone activity around Svalbard.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3707},
author = {Wickstr{\"{o}}m, S and Jonassen, M O and Vihma, T and Uotila, P},
doi = {10.1002/qj.3707},
issn = {0035-9009},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
keywords = {Arctic,Barents Sea,Eady growth rate,Scandinavian pattern,Svalbard,extratropical cyclones,sea ice decline,storm tracks},
month = {jan},
number = {727},
pages = {762--779},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Trends in cyclones in the high-latitude North Atlantic during 1979–2016}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3707 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3707},
volume = {146},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wijffels2018,
abstract = {We use 25 years of Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data from NOAA Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites received by six Australian and two Antarctic reception stations to construct a detailed climatology of sea surface temperature (SST) around Australasia. The data have been processed following international GHRSST protocols to help reduce instrument bias using in situ data, with only night-time nearly cloud-free data used to reduce diurnal bias and cloud contamination. A pixel-wise climatology (with four annual sinusoids) and linear trend are fit to the data using a robust technique and monthly non-seasonal percentiles derived. The resulting Atlas, known as the SST Atlas of Australian Regional Seas (SSTAARS), has a spatial resolution of {\~{}}2 km and thus reveals unprecedented detail of regional oceanographic phenomena, including tidally-driven entrainment cooling over shelves and reef flats, wind-driven upwelling, shelf winter water fronts, cold river plumes, the footprint of the seasonal boundary current flows and standing mesoscale features in the major offshore currents. The Atlas (and associated statistics) will provide a benchmark for high-resolution ocean modelers and be a resource for ecosystem studies where temperatures, and their extremes, impact on ocean chemistry, species ranges and distribution.},
author = {Wijffels, Susan E and Beggs, Helen and Griffin, Christopher and Middleton, John F and Cahill, Madeleine and King, Edward and Jones, Emlyn and Feng, Ming and Benthuysen, Jessica A and Steinberg, Craig R and Sutton, Phil},
doi = {10.1016/j.jmarsys.2018.07.005},
issn = {09247963},
journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
keywords = {10°N–60°S,80°E–180°E,Boundary currents,Satellite observations,Sea surface temperature,Seasonal cycle,Tidal mixing,Warming trends},
month = {nov},
pages = {156--196},
title = {{A fine spatial-scale sea surface temperature atlas of the Australian regional seas (SSTAARS): Seasonal variability and trends around Australasia and New Zealand revisited}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796317304700 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0924796317304700},
volume = {187},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wilcox2018,
abstract = {In recent years, West Africa has witnessed an increasing number of damaging floods that raise the question of a possible intensification of the hydrological hazards in the region. In this study, the evolution of extreme floods is analyzed over the period 1950–2015 for seven tributaries in the Sudano-Guinean part of the Senegal River basin and four data sets in the Sahelian part of the Niger River basin. Non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (NS-GEV) distributions including twelve models with time-dependent parameters plus a stationary GEV are applied to annual maxima of daily discharge (AMAX) series. An original methodology is proposed for comparing GEV models and selecting the best for use. The stationary GEV is rejected for all stations, demonstrating the significant non-stationarity of extreme discharge values in West Africa over the past six decades. The model of best fit most commonly selected is a double-linear model for the central tendency parameter ($\mu$), with the dispersion parameter ($\sigma$) modeled as either stationary, linear, or a double-linear. Change points in double-linear models are relatively consistent for the Senegal basin, with stations switching from a decreasing streamflow trend to an increasing streamflow trend in the early 1980s. In the Niger basin the trend in $\mu$ is generally positive since the 1970s with an increase in slope after the change point, but the change point location is less consistent. The recent increasing trends in extreme discharges are reflected in an especially marked increase in return level magnitudes since the 1980s in the studied Sahelian rivers. The rate of the increase indicated by the study results raises urgent considerations for stakeholders and engineers who are in charge of river basin management and hydraulic works sizing.},
author = {Wilcox, Catherine and Vischel, Th{\'{e}}o and Panthou, G{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}my and Bodian, Ansoumana and Blanchet, Juliette and Descroix, Luc and Quantin, Guillaume and Cass{\'{e}}, Claire and Tanimoun, Bachir and Kone, Soungalo},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.063},
issn = {0022-1694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Extreme values,Flood hazard,Floods,Model selection,Non-stationarity,West Africa},
pages = {531--545},
title = {{Trends in hydrological extremes in the Senegal and Niger Rivers}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169418305766},
volume = {566},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wilcox2016,
author = {Wilcox, Andrew C. and Escauriaza, Cristian and Agredano, Roberto and Mignot, Emmanuel and Zuazo, Vicente and Ot{\'{a}}rola, Sebasti{\'{a}}n and Castro, Lina and Giron{\'{a}}s, Jorge and Cienfuegos, Rodrigo and Mao, Luca},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL069751},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {8035--8043},
title = {{An integrated analysis of the March 2015 Atacama floods}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL069751},
volume = {43},
year = {2016}
}
@inproceedings{Wild2017a,
author = {Wild, Martin and Folini, Doris and Henschel, Florian},
booktitle = {AIP Conference Proceedings},
doi = {10.1063/1.4975562},
isbn = {0735414785},
number = {1},
pages = {100007},
publisher = {AIP Publishing},
title = {{Impact of climate change on future concentrated solar power (CSP) production}},
url = {http://aip.scitation.org/doi/abs/10.1063/1.4975562},
volume = {1810},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wild2015,
abstract = {Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar energy systems, the amount of solar radiation (sunlight) incident on the Earth's surface is assumed to be constant over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering the past decades confirm long-term changes in this quantity. Here we examine how the latest generation of climate models used for the 5th IPCC report projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, solar power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. For this purpose, projections up to the mid 21st century from 39 state of the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are analysed globally and for selected key regions with major solar power production capacity. The large model ensemble allows to assess the degree of consistency of their projections. Models are largely consistent in the sign of the projected changes in solar radiation under cloud-free conditions as well as surface temperatures over most of the globe, while still reasonably consistent over a considerable part of the globe in the sign of changes in cloudiness and associated changes in solar radiation. A first order estimate of the impact of solar radiation and temperature changes on energy yields of PV systems under the RPC8.5 scenario indicates statistically significant decreases in PV outputs in large parts of the world, but notable exceptions with positive trends in large parts of Europe, South-East of North America and the South-East of China. Projected changes between 2006 and 2049 under the RCP8.5 scenario overall are on the order of 1{\%}/decade for horizontal planes, but may be larger for tilted or tracked planes as well as on shorter (decadal) timescales.},
author = {Wild, Martin and Folini, Doris and Henschel, Florian and Fischer, Natalie and M{\"{u}}ller, Bj{\"{o}}rn},
doi = {10.1016/j.solener.2015.03.039},
file = {::},
issn = {0038092X},
journal = {Solar Energy},
month = {jun},
pages = {12--24},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Projections of long-term changes in solar radiation based on CMIP5 climate models and their influence on energy yields of photovoltaic systems}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X15001668 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0038092X15001668},
volume = {116},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Wilkinson2016,
abstract = {There is an urgent need to improve the infrastructure supporting the reuse of scholarly data. A diverse set of stakeholders-representing academia, industry, funding agencies, and scholarly publishers-have come together to design and jointly endorse a concise and measureable set of principles that we refer to as the FAIR Data Principles. The intent is that these may act as a guideline for those wishing to enhance the reusability of their data holdings. Distinct from peer initiatives that focus on the human scholar, the FAIR Principles put specific emphasis on enhancing the ability of machines to automatically find and use the data, in addition to supporting its reuse by individuals. This Comment is the first formal publication of the FAIR Principles, and includes the rationale behind them, and some exemplar implementations in the community.},
author = {Wilkinson, Mark D. and Dumontier, Michel and Aalbersberg, IJsbrand Jan and Appleton, Gabrielle and Axton, Myles and Baak, Arie and Blomberg, Niklas and Boiten, Jan-Willem and {da Silva Santos}, Luiz Bonino and Bourne, Philip E. and Bouwman, Jildau and Brookes, Anthony J. and Clark, Tim and Crosas, Merc{\`{e}} and Dillo, Ingrid and Dumon, Olivier and Edmunds, Scott and Evelo, Chris T. and Finkers, Richard and Gonzalez-Beltran, Alejandra and Gray, Alasdair J.G. and Groth, Paul and Goble, Carole and Grethe, Jeffrey S. and Heringa, Jaap and {'t Hoen}, Peter A.C and Hooft, Rob and Kuhn, Tobias and Kok, Ruben and Kok, Joost and Lusher, Scott J. and Martone, Maryann E. and Mons, Albert and Packer, Abel L. and Persson, Bengt and Rocca-Serra, Philippe and Roos, Marco and van Schaik, Rene and Sansone, Susanna-Assunta and Schultes, Erik and Sengstag, Thierry and Slater, Ted and Strawn, George and Swertz, Morris A. and Thompson, Mark and van der Lei, Johan and van Mulligen, Erik and Velterop, Jan and Waagmeester, Andra and Wittenburg, Peter and Wolstencroft, Katherine and Zhao, Jun and Mons, Barend},
doi = {10.1038/sdata.2016.18},
issn = {2052-4463},
journal = {Scientific Data},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {160018},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Groups},
title = {{The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201618},
volume = {3},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wille2019,
abstract = {Recent major melting events in West Antarctica have raised concerns about a potential hydrofracturing and ice shelf instability. These events often share common forcings of surface melt-like anomalous radiative fluxes, turbulent heat fluxes and f{\"{o}}hn winds. Using an atmospheric river detection algorithm developed for Antarctica together with surface melt datasets, we produced a climatology of atmospheric river-related surface melting around Antarctica and show that atmospheric rivers are associated with a large percentage of these surface melt events. Despite their rarity (around 12 events per year in West Antarctica), atmospheric rivers are associated with around 40{\%} of the total summer meltwater generated across the Ross Ice Shelf to nearly 100{\%} in the higher elevation Marie Byrd Land and 40–80{\%} of the total winter meltwater generated on the Wilkins, Bach, George IV and Larsen B and C ice shelves. These events were all related to high-pressure blocking ridges that directed anomalous poleward moisture transport towards the continent. Major melt events in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet only occur about a couple times per decade, but a 1–2 °C warming and continued increase in atmospheric river activity could increase the melt frequency with consequences for ice shelf stability.},
author = {Wille, Jonathan D. and Favier, Vincent and Dufour, Ambroise and Gorodetskaya, Irina V. and Turner, John and Agosta, C{\'{e}}cile and Codron, Francis},
doi = {10.1038/s41561-019-0460-1},
issn = {17520908},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {Atmospheric dynamics,Atmospheric science,Climate change,Cryospheric science},
month = {nov},
number = {11},
pages = {911--916},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{West Antarctic surface melt triggered by atmospheric rivers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0460-1},
volume = {12},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Williamson2020,
abstract = {The climate of high midlatitude mountains appears to be warming faster than the global average, but evidence for such elevation-dependent warming (EDW) at higher latitudes is presently scarce. Here, we use a comprehensive network of remote meteorological stations, proximal radiosonde measurements, downscaled temperature reanalysis, ice cores, and climate indices to investigate the manifestation and possible drivers of EDW in the St. Elias Mountains in subarctic Yukon, Canada. Linear trend analysis of comprehensively validated annual downscaled North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) gridded surface air temperatures for the years 1979–2016 indicates a warming rate of 0.028°C a −1 between 5500 and 6000 m above mean sea level (MSL), which is {\~{}}1.6 times larger than the global-average warming rate between 1970 and 2015. The warming rate between 5500 and 6000 m MSL was {\~{}}1.5 times greater than the rate at the 2000–2500 m MSL bin (0.019°C a −1 ), which is similar to the majority of warming rates estimated worldwide over similar elevation gradients. Accelerated warming since 1979, measured by radiosondes, indicates a maximum rate at 400 hPa ({\~{}}7010 m MSL). EDW in the St. Elias region therefore appears to be driven by recent warming of the free troposphere. MODIS satellite data show no evidence for an enhanced snow albedo feedback above 2500 m MSL, and declining trends in sulfate aerosols deposited in high-elevation ice cores suggest a modest increase in radiative forcing at these elevations. In contrast, increasing trends in water vapor mixing ratio at the 500-hPa level measured by radiosonde suggest that a longwave radiation vapor feedback is contributing to EDW.},
author = {Williamson, Scott N and Zdanowicz, Christian and Anslow, Faron S and Clarke, Garry K C and Copland, Luke and Danby, Ryan K and Flowers, Gwenn E and Holdsworth, Gerald and Jarosch, Alexander H and Hik, David S},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0405.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {3253--3269},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Evidence for Elevation-Dependent Warming in the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0405.1},
volume = {33},
year = {2020}
}
@article{tc-14-2909-2020,
author = {Willibald, Fabian and Kotlarski, Sven and Gr{\^{e}}t-Regamey, Adrienne and Ludwig, Ralf},
doi = {10.5194/tc-14-2909-2020},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {sep},
number = {9},
pages = {2909--2924},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Anthropogenic climate change versus internal climate variability: impacts on snow cover in the Swiss Alps}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/2909/2020/},
volume = {14},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wilson2018,
abstract = {The prevalence and increased frequency of high-magnitude Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Chilean and Argentinean Andes suggests this region will be prone to similar events in the future as glaciers continue to retreat and thin under a warming climate. Despite this situation, monitoring of glacial lake development in this region has been limited, with past investigations only covering relatively small regions of Patagonia. This study presents new glacial lake inventories for 1986, 2000 and 2016, covering the Central Andes, Northern Patagonia and Southern Patagonia. Our aim was to characterise the physical attributes, spatial distribution and temporal development of glacial lakes in these three sub-regions using Landsat satellite imagery and image datasets available in Google Earth and Bing Maps. Glacial lake water volume was also estimated using an empirical area-volume scaling approach. Results reveal that glacial lakes across the study area have increased in number (43{\%}) and areal extent (7{\%}) between 1986 and 2016. Such changes equate to a glacial lake water volume increase of 65 km3 during the 30-year observation period. However, glacial lake growth and emergence was shown to vary sub-regionally according to localised topography, meteorology, climate change, rate of glacier change and the availability of low gradient ice areas. These and other factors are likely to influence the occurrence of GLOFs in the future. This analysis represents the first large-scale census of glacial lakes in Chile and Argentina and will allow for a better understanding of lake development in this region, as well as, providing a basis for future GLOF risk assessments.},
author = {Wilson, Ryan and Glasser, Neil F. and Reynolds, John M. and Harrison, Stephan and Anacona, Pablo Iribarren and Schaefer, Marius and Shannon, Sarah},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.01.004},
issn = {09218181},
journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
keywords = {Central Chile,GLOFs,Glacial lake inventory,Patagonia,Remote sensing},
month = {mar},
pages = {275--291},
title = {{Glacial lakes of the Central and Patagonian Andes}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818117306562},
volume = {162},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Winsemius2016,
abstract = {Global river flood risk is expected to increase substantially over coming decades due to both climate change and socioeconomic development. Model-based projections suggest that southeast Asia and Africa are at particular risk, highlighting the need to invest in adaptation measures.},
author = {Winsemius, Hessel C. and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and van Beek, Ludovicus P. H. and Bierkens, Marc F. P. and Bouwman, Arno and Jongman, Brenden and Kwadijk, Jaap C. J. and Ligtvoet, Willem and Lucas, Paul L. and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Ward, Philip J.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2893},
isbn = {1758-678X$\backslash$r1758-6798},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Hydrology,change impacts},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {381--385},
pmid = {9404965},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Global drivers of future river flood risk}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2893},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@techreport{WMO2015,
address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
author = {WMO},
file = {::},
isbn = {9789263111531},
pages = {286},
publisher = {World Meteorological Organization (WMO)},
series = {WMO-No. 1153},
title = {{Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Services}},
url = {https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice{\_}display{\&}id=17225{\#}.YEzt651KhaQ},
year = {2015}
}
@article{WMOWorldMeteorologicalOrganization2018,
author = {WMO},
file = {::},
journal = {WMO Bulletin},
keywords = {Climate change},
number = {2},
pages = {76},
publisher = {World Meteorological Organization (WMO)},
title = {{Climate Change: Science and solutions}},
url = {https://library.wmo.int/?lvl=notice{\_}display{\&}id=20691{\#}.YEzuVp1KhaQ},
volume = {67},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wobus2017,
abstract = {We use a physically-based water and energy balance model to simulate natural snow accumulation at 247 winter recreation locations across the continental United States. We combine this model with projections of snowmaking conditions to determine downhill skiing, cross-country skiing, and snowmobiling season lengths under baseline and future climates, using data from five climate models and two emissions scenarios. Projected season lengths are combined with baseline estimates of winter recreation activity, entrance fee information, and potential changes in population to monetize impacts to the selected winter recreation activity categories for the years 2050 and 2090. Our results identify changes in winter recreation season lengths across the United States that vary by location, recreational activity type, and climate scenario. However, virtually all locations are projected to see reductions in winter recreation season lengths, exceeding 50{\%} by 2050 and 80{\%} in 2090 for some downhill skiing locations. We estimate these season length changes could result in millions to tens of millions of foregone recreational visits annually by 2050, with an annual monetized impact of hundreds of millions of dollars. Comparing results from the alternative emissions scenarios shows that limiting global greenhouse gas emissions could both delay and substantially reduce adverse impacts to the winter recreation industry.},
author = {Wobus, Cameron and Small, Eric E. and Hosterman, Heather and Mills, David and Stein, Justin and Rissing, Matthew and Jones, Russell and Duckworth, Michael and Hall, Ronald and Kolian, Michael and Creason, Jared and Martinich, Jeremy},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006},
issn = {09593780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
month = {jul},
pages = {1--14},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016305556?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378016305556},
volume = {45},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wobus2017a,
abstract = {Abstract. A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 {\%} annual exceedance probability (1 {\%} AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 {\%} AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.},
author = {Wobus, Cameron and Gutmann, Ethan and Jones, Russell and Rissing, Matthew and Mizukami, Naoki and Lorie, Mark and Mahoney, Hardee and Wood, Andrew W. and Mills, David and Martinich, Jeremy},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-17-2199-2017},
issn = {1684-9981},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {2199--2211},
title = {{Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States}},
url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/2199/2017/},
volume = {17},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Wolfe2018,
author = {Wolfe, David W. and DeGaetano, Arthur T. and Peck, Gregory M. and Carey, Mary and Ziska, Lewis H. and Lea-Cox, John and Kemanian, Armen R. and Hoffmann, Michael P. and Hollinger, David Y.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2109-7},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {231--245},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2109-7},
volume = {146},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wolfe2008,
author = {Wolfe, David W. and Ziska, Lewis and Petzoldt, Curt and Seaman, Abby and Chase, Larry and Hayhoe, Katharine},
doi = {10.1007/s11027-007-9125-2},
file = {::},
issn = {1381-2386},
journal = {Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change},
month = {jun},
number = {5-6},
pages = {555--575},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-007-9125-2},
volume = {13},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Wolski2018a,
abstract = {With reservoirs running dry, Capetonians are bracing themselves for the day when their water supply may be switched off. Piotr Wolski delves into the rainfall record to put this drought into historical context},
author = {Wolski, Piotr},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2018.01127.x},
issn = {1740-9705},
journal = {Significance},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {24--27},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{How severe is Cape Town's “Day Zero” drought?}},
url = {10.1111/j.1740-9713.2018.01127.x},
volume = {15},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Woolway2021,
abstract = {Lake ecosystems, and the organisms that live within them, are vulnerable to temperature change1–5, including the increased occurrence of thermal extremes6. However, very little is known about lake heatwaves—periods of extreme warm lake surface water temperature—and how they may change under global warming. Here we use satellite observations and a numerical model to investigate changes in lake heatwaves for hundreds of lakes worldwide from 1901 to 2099. We show that lake heatwaves will become hotter and longer by the end of the twenty-first century. For the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5), the average intensity of lake heatwaves, defined relative to the historical period (1970 to 1999), will increase from 3.7 ± 0.1 to 5.4 ± 0.8 degrees Celsius and their average duration will increase dramatically from 7.7 ± 0.4 to 95.5 ± 35.3 days. In the low-greenhouse-gas-emission RCP 2.6 scenario, heatwave intensity and duration will increase to 4.0 ± 0.2 degrees Celsius and 27.0 ± 7.6 days, respectively. Surface heatwaves are longer-lasting but less intense in deeper lakes (up to 60 metres deep) than in shallower lakes during both historic and future periods. As lakes warm during the twenty-first century7,8, their heatwaves will begin to extend across multiple seasons, with some lakes reaching a permanent heatwave state. Lake heatwaves are likely to exacerbate the adverse effects of long-term warming in lakes and exert widespread influence on their physical structure and chemical properties. Lake heatwaves could alter species composition by pushing aquatic species and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience. This in turn could threaten lake biodiversity9 and the key ecological and economic benefits that lakes provide to society.},
author = {Woolway, R Iestyn and Jennings, Eleanor and Shatwell, Tom and Golub, Malgorzata and Pierson, Don C and Maberly, Stephen C},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-03119-1},
issn = {1476-4687},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7842},
pages = {402--407},
title = {{Lake heatwaves under climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-03119-1},
volume = {589},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Woolway2020,
abstract = {Climate change is one of the most severe threats to global lake ecosystems. Lake surface conditions, such as ice cover, surface temperature, evaporation and water level, respond dramatically to this threat, as observed in recent decades. In this Review, we discuss physical lake variables and their responses to climate change. Decreases in winter ice cover and increases in lake surface temperature modify lake mixing regimes and accelerate lake evaporation. Where not balanced by increased mean precipitation or inflow, higher evaporation rates will favour a decrease in lake level and surface water extent. Together with increases in extreme-precipitation events, these lake responses will impact lake ecosystems, changing water quantity and quality, food provisioning, recreational opportunities and transportation. Future research opportunities, including enhanced observation of lake variables from space (particularly for small water bodies), improved in situ lake monitoring and the development of advanced modelling techniques to predict lake processes, will improve our global understanding of lake responses to a changing climate.},
author = {Woolway, R Iestyn and Kraemer, Benjamin M and Lenters, John D and Merchant, Christopher J and O'Reilly, Catherine M and Sharma, Sapna},
doi = {10.1038/s43017-020-0067-5},
issn = {2662-138X},
journal = {Nature Reviews Earth {\&} Environment},
number = {8},
pages = {388--403},
title = {{Global lake responses to climate change}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0067-5},
volume = {1},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wu2019,
author = {Wu, Shuangye and Wu, Yanjuan and Wen, Jiahong},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6038},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
number = {8},
pages = {3558--3573},
title = {{Future changes in precipitation characteristics in China}},
volume = {39},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Wu2018,
author = {Wu, Chenglai and Lin, Zhaohui and Liu, Xiaohong and Li, Ying and Lu, Zheng and Wu, Mingxuan},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079376},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {18},
pages = {9953--9962},
title = {{Can Climate Models Reproduce the Decadal Change of Dust Aerosol in East Asia}},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wu2019b,
abstract = {During recent years, the rapidly warming Arctic and its impact on winter weather and climate variability in the mid- and low latitudes have been the focus of many research efforts. In contrast, anomalous cool Arctic summers and their impacts on the large-scale circulation have received little attention. In this study, we use atmospheric reanalysis data to reveal a dominant pattern of summer 1000–500-hPa thickness variability north of 30°N and its association with East Asian heat waves. It is found that the second thickness pattern exhibits strong interannual variability but does not exhibit any trend. Spatially, the positive phase of the second thickness pattern corresponds with significant Arctic cold anomalies in the mid- and low troposphere, which are surrounded by warm anomalies outside the Arctic. This pattern is the thermodynamic expression of the leading pattern of upper-tropospheric westerly variability and significantly correlated with the frequency of East Asian heat waves. The Arctic has experienced frequent summer cold anomalies since 2005, accompanied by strengthened tropospheric westerly winds over most of the Arctic and weakened westerlies over the mid- and low latitudes of Asia. The former significantly enhances baroclinicity over the Arctic, which dynamically contributes to increased frequency of anomalous low surface pressure during summer along with decreased frequency over high latitudes of Eurasia and North America. The latter is exhibited by sustained high pressure anomalies in the mid- and low troposphere that dynamically facilitate the occurrence of East Asian heat waves. A systematic northward shift of Asian zonal winds dynamically links Arctic cold anomalies with East Asian heat waves and produces a seesaw structure in zonal wind anomalies over the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau (the third pole). Evidence suggests that enhanced Arctic westerlies may provide a precursor to improve predictions of the East Asian winter monsoon, though the mechanism for this lag association is unclear.},
author = {Wu, Bingyi and Francis, Jennifer A.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0370.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {feb},
number = {4},
pages = {1137--1150},
title = {{Summer Arctic Cold Anomaly Dynamically Linked to East Asian Heat Waves}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0370.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{wu2018changes,
author = {Wu, Jian and Zha, Jinlin and Zhao, Deming and Yang, Qidong},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3997-y},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {sep},
number = {5-6},
pages = {2039--2078},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-017-3997-y},
volume = {51},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Wu2020b,
abstract = {Abstract A good understanding of spatiotemporal characteristics of historical droughts is important for managing and tackling drought hazards. This paper aims to investigate spatiotemporal variations of drought in mainland China over 1961?2016 based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at the 1- and 12-month timescales. The trend significance and magnitude of 12-month SPEI were analysed using the modified Mann?Kendall (MMK) method and Sen's slope values. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) were applied to analyse the spatial patterns and periods in 1-month SPEI series. The results showed that the temporal fluctuations of SPEI were weaker as the timescale increased. The droughts in 1960s were the severest than in other decades. The sites with SPEI {\textless} ?5 (denoting the extreme droughts) mainly located in the northwestern and southwestern China. An overall wetter trend was detected in most regions of China, except the belt from northeastern to middle and southwestern China. The 1-month SPEI had shorter than 1.20-year of mean periods for the seven sub-regions and China, while had 0.22?2.95?years of mean periods at different sites. Residuals (decomposed from 1-month SPEI) showed increasing trends in most of the sub-regions except sub-region 3. In northern and northwestern China, longer periods of SPEI were detected. The highest values of EOF1 and EOF2 illustrated the eastern and northeastern China were drought-sensitive areas. From the correlations between 1-month SPEI and the atmospheric circulations, the AO was the main physical factor that influenced drought occurrence in mainland China. The identified spatiotemporal characteristics of SPEI could offer references for drought prevention and management in China.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6489},
author = {Wu, Mengjie and Li, Yi and Hu, Wei and Yao, Ning and Li, Linchao and Liu, De Li},
doi = {10.1002/joc.6489},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {SPEI,empirical orthogonal function,ensemble empirical mode decomposition,spatiotemporal characteristics,trend test},
month = {sep},
number = {11},
pages = {4781--4799},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Spatiotemporal variability of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in mainland China over 1961–2016}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6489},
volume = {40},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wu2020c,
abstract = {Abstract Surface wind speed has great impacts on the economy, environment, and society around the world. Based on 24 global climate models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this paper assesses the historical surface wind speed over China, and quantifies the advancements of CMIP6 over CMIP5. In addition, future changes of surface wind speed under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios of 1-2.6, 2-4.5, and 5-8.5 (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) are also provided, by using 18 out of the 24 models with all three scenarios. Results show that multimodel ensemble mean of CMIP6 can well capture the spatial distributions of the annual, summer, and winter surface wind speed and generally performs better than both the median of the individual CMIP6 GCMs and multimodel ensemble mean of CMIP5 in monthly, seasonal, and annual wind climatology. However, CMIP6 GCMs fail to reproduce the observed decreasing trends, in terms of magnitude and/or sign. Meanwhile, the annual cycle of the surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 GCMs falsely demonstrates the maximum in winter instead of spring. In the context of global warming, surface wind speed is projected to decrease in most parts of China in the middle and late 21st century under the three scenarios. Moreover, the trends of wind speed averaged over China will decrease significantly in both annual and winter under all three scenarios, but it will increase significantly in summer under SSP5-8.5.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033611},
author = {Wu, Jie and Shi, Ying and Xu, Ying},
doi = {10.1029/2020JD033611},
issn = {2169-897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {CMIP6,China,evaluation,projection,surface wind speed},
month = {nov},
number = {22},
pages = {e2020JD033611},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Evaluation and Projection of Surface Wind Speed Over China Based on CMIP6 GCMs}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033611},
volume = {125},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Wu2016,
abstract = {Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects - the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.},
author = {Wu, Xiaoxu and Lu, Yongmei and Zhou, Sen and Chen, Lifan and Xu, Bing},
doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.007},
isbn = {1873-6750 (Electronic)$\backslash$r0160-4120 (Linking)},
issn = {18736750},
journal = {Environment International},
keywords = {Adaptation,Climate change,Health impact,Human infectious diseases,Pathogen,Transmission},
pages = {14--23},
pmid = {26479830},
publisher = {The Authors},
title = {{Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.007},
volume = {86},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Wuebbles2014,
abstract = {This is the fourth in a series of four articles on historical and projected climate extremes in the United States. Here, we examine the results of historical and future climate model experiments from the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) based on work presented at the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Workshop on CMIP5 Climate Model Analyses held in March 2012. Our analyses assess the ability of CMIP5 models to capture observed trends, and we also evaluate the projected future changes in extreme events over the contiguous Unites States. Consistent with the previous articles, here we focus on model-simulated historical trends and projections for temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, large-scale drivers of precipitation variability and drought, and extratropical storms. Comparing new CMIP5 model results with earlier CMIP3 simulations shows that in general CMIP5 simulations give similar patterns and magnitudes of future temperature and precipitation extremes in the Unite...},
author = {Wuebbles, Donald and Meehl, Gerald and Hayhoe, Katharine and Karl, Thomas R. and Kunkel, Kenneth and Santer, Benjamin and Wehner, Michael and Colle, Brian and Fischer, Erich M. and Fu, Rong and Goodman, Alex and Janssen, Emily and Kharin, Viatcheslav and Lee, Huikyo and Li, Wenhong and Long, Lindsey N. and Olsen, Seth C. and Pan, Zaitao and Seth, Anji and Sheffield, Justin and Sun, Liqiang and Wuebbles, Donald and Meehl, Gerald and Hayhoe, Katharine and Karl, Thomas R. and Kunkel, Kenneth and Santer, Benjamin and Wehner, Michael and Colle, Brian and Fischer, Erich M. and Fu, Rong and Goodman, Alex and Janssen, Emily and Kharin, Viatcheslav and Lee, Huikyo and Li, Wenhong and Long, Lindsey N. and Olsen, Seth C. and Pan, Zaitao and Seth, Anji and Sheffield, Justin and Sun, Liqiang},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00172.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {571--583},
publisher = { American Meteorological Society },
title = {{CMIP5 Climate Model Analyses: Climate Extremes in the United States}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00172.1},
volume = {95},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Wypych2017,
author = {Wypych, Agnieszka and Ustrnul, Zbigniew and Sulikowska, Agnieszka and Chmielewski, Frank-M. and Bochenek, Bogdan},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4920},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
month = {jun},
number = {8},
pages = {3340--3352},
title = {{Spatial and temporal variability of the frost-free season in Central Europe and its circulation background}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4920},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Xia2016,
author = {Xia, Jiangjiang and Tu, Kai and Yan, Zhongwei and Qi, Yajie},
doi = {10.1002/joc.4424},
issn = {08998418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,climate extreme,long‐term climate warming,multidecadal variability,return period,super‐heat wave},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {1291--1298},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{The super-heat wave in eastern China during July–August 2013: a perspective of climate change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.4424},
volume = {36},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Xie2015,
author = {Xie, Yingying and Ahmed, Kazi F. and Allen, Jenica M. and Wilson, Adam M. and Silander, John A.},
doi = {10.1007/s10980-014-0099-7},
issn = {0921-2973},
journal = {Landscape Ecology},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {109--123},
publisher = {Springer Netherlands},
title = {{Green-up of deciduous forest communities of northeastern North America in response to climate variation and climate change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10980-014-0099-7},
volume = {30},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Xu2017,
abstract = {Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5–4 °C, and further compares the differences between 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 °C, 3.0 °C, 4.6 °C, and 6.0 °C at warming targets of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4{\%}, 5.8{\%}, 10.2{\%}, and 13.0{\%}, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 °C target, compared with the climate under the 2 °C target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5–1 °C over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5{\%}–20{\%} over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10{\%}–15{\%} over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming targets, the probability of very hot weather (anomalies greater than 1$\sigma$, $\sigma$ is standard deviation), extremely hot weather (anomalies greater than 3$\sigma$), and extremely heavy precipitation (anomalies greater than 3$\sigma$) occurring will increase by at least once, 10{\%}, and 10{\%}, respectively, compared to the reference period (1861–1900).},
author = {Xu, Ying and Zhou, Bo-Tao and Wu, Jie and Han, Zhen-Yu and Zhang, Yong-Xiang and Wu, Jia},
doi = {10.1016/J.ACCRE.2017.05.004},
issn = {1674-9278},
journal = {Advances in Climate Change Research},
month = {jun},
number = {2},
pages = {99--107},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Asian climate change under 1.5–4°C warming targets}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927817300333},
volume = {8},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Yalew2020,
abstract = {A ssessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other studies have shown that the energy sector not only contributes to climate change but is also vulnerable to climate change 1-3. These impacts are related to different aspects of energy systems, including energy supply and demand, but also to cost and transport of energy. On the supply side, renewable energy sources including bio-energy, and hydro, solar and wind power are impacted by climate change in varying degrees due to changes and variability in precipitation , temperature, wind speed and solar irradiation 2,4-7. Thermal power plants (for example, fossil fuel, biomass and nuclear) face temperature-related impacts on cooling systems and, less substantial , on turbine efficiency 8. With changes in climate, impacts on thermal power plant may be exacerbated due to national and regional environmental regulations on cooling water withdrawal, consumption and release into natural water bodies, which may result in power generation curtailments 9,10. Climate change and climate extremes can also affect the resilience of energy systems and the reliability of energy supply, via impacts on transmission systems or infrastructure siting 3,11-13. Furthermore, climate change may impact energy supply potentials (for example, for bioenergy) although impacts on land use and competition with other sectors such as food production 14. On the demand side, climate change influences energy demand by affecting the duration and magnitude of diurnal and seasonal heating and cooling requirements 15. Finally, climate change may impact energy systems indirectly by affecting cross-sectoral competition for resources, such as water for producing hydropower, for cooling thermal power plants and/or for uses such as domestic supply, freshwater ecosystems, irrigation and manufacturing 16. This could indicate additional energy demand for alternative water sources, such as for desalinization. Understandably, energy systems can also adapt to climate change impacts. Adaptation mechanisms may include reducing energy demand, reducing water demands for cooling operations through alternative cooling technologies (that is, recirculating versus once-through), increasing energy generation capacity and energy storage 17. The vulnerability of the energy sector can also be reduced by changes in the mix of electricity generation technologies 3. Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning. NATuRE ENERGY | www.nature.com/natureenergy},
author = {Yalew, Seleshi G. and van Vliet, Michelle T. H. and Gernaat, David E. H. J. and Ludwig, Fulco and Miara, Ariel and Park, Chan and Byers, Edward and {De Cian}, Enrica and Piontek, Franziska and Iyer, Gokul and Mouratiadou, Ioanna and Glynn, James and Hejazi, Mohamad and Dessens, Olivier and Rochedo, Pedro and Pietzcker, Robert and Schaeffer, Roberto and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Dasgupta, Shouro and Mima, Silvana and da Silva, Silvia R. Santos and Chaturvedi, Vaibhav and Vautard, Robert and van Vuuren, Detlef P.},
doi = {10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z},
issn = {2058-7546},
journal = {Nature Energy},
keywords = {Governance,Projection and prediction},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {794--802},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0664-z},
volume = {5},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Yamaguchi2020a,
author = {Yamaguchi, Munehiko and Chan, Johnny C. L. and Moon, Il-Ju and Yoshida, Kohei and Mizuta, Ryo},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-13902-y},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = {1},
pages = {47},
title = {{Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed}},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Yamamoto2015,
author = {Yamamoto, A and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Shigemitsu, M and Oka, A and Takahashi, K and Ohgaito, Rumi and Yamanaka, Yasuhiro},
doi = {10.1002/2015GB005181},
issn = {08866236},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
keywords = {10.1002/2015GB005181 and dissolved oxygen,Weddell Sea,long-term climate change,ocean biogeochemical modeling,open ocean deep convection},
month = {oct},
number = {10},
pages = {1801--1815},
title = {{Global deep ocean oxygenation by enhanced ventilation in the Southern Ocean under long-term global warming}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GB005181},
volume = {29},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Yang2020c,
abstract = {Abstract How human activities have altered hydrological droughts (streamflow deficits) in China during the past five decades (1961?2016) is investigated using the latest version (v2.0) of PCR-GLOBWB model at high spatial resolution ({\~{}}10 km). Although both human activities and climate variability have significant effects on river flows over China, there are large regional north-south contrasts. Over northern China, human activities generally intensify hydrological droughts. We find that human activities exacerbated drought deficit by about 70?200{\%} from 2004 to 2015. In contrast, droughts over southern China are generally alleviated by human activities. For instance, irrigation and water management (such as reservoir operation and water abstraction) increase drought StDef (standardized drought deficit volume) by about 80{\%} in the Yellow River (north) but reduce it by about 20{\%} in the Yangtze River (south). Human activities slightly reduce drought deficit in the Yangtze River due to the combination of large reservoir storage and low ratio of agriculture consumption to abstracted irrigation water. In contrast, hydrological drought is aggravated in the semiarid Yellow River basin because of high water consumption from agricultural sectors. This study suggests that human activities have contrasting influences on hydrological drought characteristics in the northern (intensification) and southern (mitigation) parts of China. Therefore, it is critical to consider the variable roles of human activities on hydrological drought in China when developing mitigation and adaptation strategies.},
annote = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025843},
author = {Yang, Xiaoli and Zhang, Mengru and He, Xiaogang and Ren, Liliang and Pan, Ming and Yu, Xiaohan and Wei, Zhongwang and Sheffield, Justin},
doi = {10.1029/2019WR025843},
issn = {0043-1397},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {PCR-GLOBWB model,drought mitigation,human water use and water management,hydrological drought},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {e2019WR025843},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Contrasting Influences of Human Activities on Hydrological Drought Regimes Over China Based on High-Resolution Simulations}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025843 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019WR025843},
volume = {56},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Yang2020,
abstract = {More than one-third of Earth's landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic1,2, ecologic3,4, climatic5 and socio-economic6–8 functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world1, the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures9,10, were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-°C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 ± 0.08 days per 1-°C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984–2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080–2100: compared with 2009–2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.},
author = {Yang, Xiao and Pavelsky, Tamlin M. and Allen, George H.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1848-1},
issn = {14764687},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Biogeochemistry,Climate,Cryospheric science,Hydrology,Riparian ecology,change impacts},
month = {jan},
number = {7788},
pages = {69--73},
pmid = {31894147},
publisher = {Nature Research},
title = {{The past and future of global river ice}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1848-1},
volume = {577},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Yang2019c,
annote = {doi: 10.1080/01431161.2019.1579939},
author = {Yang, Qian and Song, Kaishan and Wen, Zhidan and Hao, Xiaohua and Fang, Chong},
doi = {10.1080/01431161.2019.1579939},
issn = {0143-1161},
journal = {International Journal of Remote Sensing},
month = {jul},
number = {14},
pages = {5388--5410},
publisher = {Taylor {\&} Francis},
title = {{Recent trends of ice phenology for eight large lakes using MODIS products in Northeast China}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2019.1579939},
volume = {40},
year = {2019}
}
@article{ISI:000504672800114,
abstract = {Droughts have destructive impacts on agricultural production; thus, drought projections are vital for the development of future drought mitigation strategies. This work aimed to project a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 3-, 6- and 12-month timescales for the period 2011-2100 under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios - RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in mainland China and to assess the changes in various drought indices over a baseline period of 1961-2000. The spatiotemporal variations in drought characteristics (e.g., the drought occurrence time, duration, severity, peak, and frequency and the percentage of stations suffering from drought (PSSD) were estimated by the projected SPEI for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The results showed that mainland China would experience more frequent and severe droughts in the future than in the baseline period, as denoted by SPEI and the generated drought variables. In particular, drier areas of northwestern China were likely to suffer from worse drought conditions than those in other areas, with PSSD values of 60{\%} and 81{\%} by 2100 under the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Although the annual precipitation was projected to increase in most regions, drought conditions would still worsen because of increased the minimum and maximum air temperatures. However, the GCMs contributed more uncertainties to the projection of the SPEI than the stations or the RCPs, because the GCMs made a larger contribution to the variance ({\textgreater}40{\%}). The SPEI performed better than the other indices that only accounted for the influence of a single variable. The relationship between crop yields and the three drought indices varied by month, crop (maize and cotton), and timescale (3- and 6-month). The drought projections from our study can provide invaluable information for stakeholders in developing regionally specific drought adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
address = {RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS},
author = {Yao, Ning and Li, Linchao and Feng, Puyu and Feng, Hao and {Li Liu}, De and Liu, Yang and Jiang, Kongtao and Hu, Xiaotao and Li, Yi},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135245},
issn = {00489697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
keywords = {China,Drought,Global climate model,Projection},
month = {feb},
pages = {135245},
publisher = {ELSEVIER},
title = {{Projections of drought characteristics in China based on a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index and multiple GCMs}},
type = {Article},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969719352374},
volume = {704},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Yao2016a,
abstract = {Lake ice phenology, i.e. the timing of freeze-up and break-up and the duration of the ice cover, is regarded as an important indicator of changes in regional climate. Based on the boundary data of lakes, some moderate-high resolution remote sensing datasets including MODIS and Landsat TM/ETM+ images and the meteorological data, the spatial-temporal variations of lake ice phenology in the Hoh Xil region during the period 2000–2011 were analyzed by using RS and GIS technology. And the factors affecting the lake ice phenology were also identified. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) The time of freeze-up start (FUS) and freeze-up end (FUE) of lake ice appeared in the late October–early November, mid-November–early December, respectively. The duration of lake ice freeze-up was about half a month. The time of break-up start (BUS) and break-up end (BUE) of lake ice were relatively dispersed, and appeared in the early February–early June, early May–early June, respectively. The average ice duration (ID) and the complete ice duration (CID) of lakes were 196 days and 181 days, respectively. (2) The phenology of lake ice in the Hoh Xil region changed dramatically in the last 10 years. Specifically, the FUS and FUE time of lake ice showed an increasingly delaying trend. In contrast, the BUS and BUE time of lake ice presented an advance. This led to the reduction of the ID and CID of lake. The average rates of ID and CID were–2.21 d/a and–1.91 d/a, respectively. (3) The variations of phenology and evolution of lake ice were a result of local and climatic factors. The temperature, lake area, salinity and shape of the shoreline were the main factors affecting the phenology of lake ice. However, the other factors such as the thermal capacity and the geological structure of lake should not be ignored as well. (4) The spatial process of lake ice freeze-up was contrary to its break-up process. The type of lake ice extending from one side of lakeshore to the opposite side was the most in the Hoh Xil region.},
author = {Yao, Xiaojun and Li, Long and Zhao, Jun and Sun, Meiping and Li, Jing and Gong, Peng and An, Lina},
doi = {10.1007/s11442-016-1255-6},
issn = {1861-9568},
journal = {Journal of Geographical Sciences},
number = {1},
pages = {70--82},
title = {{Spatial-temporal variations of lake ice phenology in the Hoh Xil region from 2000 to 2011}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-016-1255-6},
volume = {26},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Yasuhara2012a,
abstract = {Results of recent investigations suggest that climate change tends to exacerbate geo-disasters. Therefore, it is understood clearly that adaptation to climate change has rapidly become the most important and urgent issue for the future existence of human beings on Earth. These inferences form the background of this research. In comparison to those examining water disasters, few studies have examined climate-change-induced geo-disasters. This study aims at upgrading the methodology for estimating effects on geo-disasters of combined events, e.g., global warming with increased typhoon and rainfall severity or occurrence of great earthquakes. Such a methodology is expected to contribute to progress in the fields of natural disaster mitigation and land preservation, particularly near seacoasts and rivers.},
author = {Yasuhara, K. and Komine, H. and Murakami, S. and Chen, G. and Mitani, Y. and Duc, D.M.},
doi = {10.1016/J.GEOTEXMEM.2011.01.005},
issn = {0266-1144},
journal = {Geotextiles and Geomembranes},
month = {feb},
pages = {24--34},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Effects of climate change on geo-disasters in coastal zones and their adaptation}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0266114411000069?via{\%}3Dihub},
volume = {30},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Ye2015,
author = {Ye, Hengchun and Fetzer, Eric J. and Wong, Sun and Behrangi, Ali and Yang, Daqing and Lambrigtson, Bjorn H.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL066104},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {9404--9410},
title = {{Increasing atmospheric water vapor and higher daily precipitation intensity over northern Eurasia}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2015GL066104},
volume = {42},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Yeo2017,
abstract = {Two distinct modes of snow cover variability over Eurasia are investigated using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis. The first mode of Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) represents a seasonally asymmetric trend between spring and fall. The spring SCE shows a decreasing trend, while the fall SCE particularly in October exhibits a clear increasing trend. This seasonally asymmetric trend of SCE is closely linked to Arctic sea ice decline accompanied by warming in the northern Eurasia. The decreased SCE during spring is primarily attributed to the warm air temperature anomalies, while the increased SCE in October results from the loss of sea ice and the ensuing moisture transport to the atmosphere, which is realized as increased snow in October. The second mode of Eurasian SCE, on the other hand, is closely related to Arctic Oscillation (AO), which is a dominant mode of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric variability. The snow cover variability over Europe during winter is largely affected by AO variability, rather than the warming signal represented by the first CSEOF mode. Detailed descriptions of the two distinct modes of Eurasian SCE and their interactions with oceanic and atmospheric variables are presented along with possible implications for future climate.},
author = {Yeo, Sae-Rim and Kim, WonMoo and Kim, Kwang-Yul},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3089-4},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {499--511},
title = {{Eurasian snow cover variability in relation to warming trend and Arctic Oscillation}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3089-4},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Yin_2019,
abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest and highest upland on Earth. Warming on the TP is faster than that in surrounding areas. Evaluating our understanding of the causes behind these changes provides a test of tools used for projections of future climate in the region. In this study, we analyse the observed changes in twelve extreme temperature indices and compare them with model simulations based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). An optimal fingerprinting method is used to perform detection and attribution analyses on the changes in absolute intensity, percentile-based frequency, fixed threshold exceedances of temperature extremes and diurnal temperature ranges in the central and eastern TP. The results show that during 1958–2017 the TP has experienced increasing intensity and frequency of warm extremes and decreasing intensity and frequency of cold extremes, with almost all these changes larger than those in China and East China. The detection results and attribution analyses show that the anthropogenic (ANT) signal can be robustly detected in the trends for all extreme indices on the TP, and the natural (NAT) signal in some cases, too. The attributable contribution from ANT is estimated to be much larger than that from NAT for most indices. The study also indicates that the CMIP5 models may underestimate the magnitude of warming in some temperature extremes, especially the indices related to cold extremes. This should be kept in mind when informing adaptation decisions on the TP with projections based on the same models.},
author = {Yin, Hong and Sun, Ying and Donat, Markus G},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab503c},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {12},
pages = {124015},
publisher = {{\{}IOP{\}} Publishing},
title = {{Changes in temperature extremes on the Tibetan Plateau and their attribution}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088{\%}2F1748-9326{\%}2Fab503c},
volume = {14},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Yin2005,
abstract = {A consistent poleward and upward shift and intensification of the storm tracks is found in an ensemble of 21st century climate simulations performed by 15 coupled climate models. The shift of the storm tracks is accompanied by a poleward shift and upward expansion of the midlatitude baroclinic regions associated with enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and increased tropopause height. The poleward shift in baroclinicity is augmented in the Southern Hemisphere and partially offset in the Northern Hemisphere by changes in the surface meridional temperature gradient. The poleward shift of the storm tracks also tends to be accompanied by poleward shifts in surface wind stress and precipitation, and a shift towards the high index state of the annular modes. These results highlight the integral role that the storm tracks play in the climate system, and the importance of understanding how and why they will change in the future. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.},
author = {Yin, Jeffrey H.},
doi = {10.1029/2005GL023684},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {sep},
pages = {L18701},
title = {{A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2005GL023684},
volume = {32},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Yokohata2019,
abstract = {It is now widely recognized that climate change affects multiple sectors in virtually every part of the world. Impacts on one sector may influence other sectors, including seemingly remote ones, which we call “interconnections of climate risks.” While a substantial number of climate risks are identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, there have been few attempts to explore the interconnections between them in a comprehensive way. To fill this gap, we developed a methodology for visualizing climate risks and their interconnections based on a literature survey. Our visualizations highlight the need to address climate risk interconnections in impact and vulnerability studies. Our risk maps and flowcharts show how changes in climate impact natural and socioeconomic systems, ultimately affecting human security, health, and well-being. We tested our visualization approach with potential users and identified likely benefits and issues. Our methodology can be used as a communication tool to inform decision makers, stakeholders, and the general public of the cascading risks that can be triggered by climate change.},
author = {Yokohata, T. and Tanaka, K. and Nishina, K. and Takahashi, K. and Emori, S. and Kiguchi, M. and Iseri, Y. and Honda, Y. and Okada, M. and Masaki, Y. and Yamamoto, A. and Shigemitsu, M. and Yoshimori, M. and Sueyoshi, T. and Iwase, K. and Hanasaki, N. and Ito, A. and Sakurai, G. and Iizumi, T. and Nishimori, M. and Lim, W. H. and Miyazaki, C. and Okamoto, A. and Kanae, S. and Oki, T.},
doi = {10.1029/2018EF000945},
issn = {2328-4277},
journal = {Earth's Future},
keywords = {climate change,climate risk communication,interconnection,network diagram,risk,visualization},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {85--100},
publisher = {John Wiley and Sons Inc},
title = {{Visualizing the Interconnections Among Climate Risks}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018EF000945},
volume = {7},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Yoon2018,
abstract = {The US state of Texas has experienced consecutive flooding events since spring 2015 with devastating consequences, yet these happened only a few years after the record drought of 2011. Identifying the effect of climate variability on regional water cycle extremes, such as the predicted occurrence of La Ni{\~{n}}a in winter 2017-2018 and its association with drought in Texas, remains a challenge. The present analyses use large-ensemble simulations to project the future of water cycle extremes in Texas and assess their connection with the changing El Ni{\~{n}}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection under global warming. Large-ensemble simulations indicate that both intense drought and excessive precipitation are projected to increase towards the middle of the 21st century, associated with a strengthened effect from ENSO. Despite the precipitation increase projected for the southern Great Plains, groundwater storage is likely to decrease in the long run with diminishing groundwater recharge; this is due to the concurrent increases and strengthening in drought offsetting the effect of added rains. This projection provides implications to short-term climate anomaly in the face of the La Ni{\~{n}}a and to long-term water resources planning.},
author = {Yoon, Jin Ho and Wang, S. Y.Simon and Lo, Min Hui and Wu, Wen Ying},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab96b},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {ENSO,climate extremes,drought,flood},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {054002},
publisher = {Institute of Physics Publishing},
title = {{Concurrent increases in wet and dry extremes projected in Texas and combined effects on groundwater}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab96b},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Yoshida2017,
author = {Yoshida, Kohei and Sugi, Masato and Mizuta, Ryo and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Ishii, Masayoshi},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL075058},
issn = {00948276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {global warming,high‐resolution model,large‐ensemble simulations,tropcal cyclone},
month = {oct},
number = {19},
pages = {9910--9917},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
title = {{Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL075058},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
@article{You2020a,
author = {You, Qinglong and Chen, Deliang and Wu, Fangying and Pepin, Nick and Cai, Ziyi and Ahrens, Bodo and Jiang, Zhihong and Wu, Zhiwei and Kang, Shichang and AghaKouchak, Amir},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103349},
issn = {00128252},
journal = {Earth-Science Reviews},
month = {nov},
pages = {103349},
title = {{Elevation dependent warming over the Tibetan Plateau: Patterns, mechanisms and perspectives}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012825220303950},
volume = {210},
year = {2020}
}
@article{You2017a,
author = {You, Qinglong and Jiang, Zhihong and Kong, Lei and Wu, Zhiwei and Bao, Yutao and Kang, Shichang and Pepin, Nick},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3315-0},
issn = {14320894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {China,Heat wave,Multiple heat wave indices},
number = {11-12},
pages = {3975--3989},
title = {{A comparison of heat wave climatologies and trends in China based on multiple definitions}},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3315-0},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Young2017,
author = {Young, Adam M. and Higuera, Philip E. and Duffy, Paul A. and Hu, Feng Sheng},
doi = {10.1111/ecog.02205},
issn = {09067590},
journal = {Ecography},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {606--617},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd (10.1111)},
title = {{Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/ecog.02205},
volume = {40},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Yu2019,
author = {Yu, Deyong and Liu, Yupeng and Shi, Peijun and Wu, Jianguo},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.04.006},
issn = {1470160X},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
month = {aug},
pages = {114--123},
title = {{Projecting impacts of climate change on global terrestrial ecoregions}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470160X19302523},
volume = {103},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Yu2014,
abstract = {Analysis of weekly sea ice charts produced by the U.S. National Ice Center from 1976 to 2007 indicates large interannual variations in the averaged winter landfast ice extent around the Arctic Basin. During the 32-yr period of the record, landfast ice cover was relatively extensive from the early to mid-1980s but since then has declined in many coastal regions of the Arctic, particularly after the early 1990s. While the Barents, Baltic, and Bering Seas show increases in landfast ice area, the overall change for the Northern Hemisphere is negative, about −12.27 (±2.8) × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 , or −7 (±1.5){\%} decade −1 relative to the long-term mean. Except in a few coastal regions, the seasonal duration of landfast ice is shorter overall, particularly in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas. The decreased winter landfast ice extent is associated with some notable changes in ice growth and melt patterns, in particular the slowed landfast ice expansion during fall and early winter since 1990. The observed changes in Arctic landfast ice could have profound impacts on the Arctic coasts. The challenge is to understand and project the responses of the whole coastal ecosystem to changing ice cover and Arctic warming.},
author = {Yu, Yanling and Stern, Harry and Fowler, Charles and Fetterer, Florence and Maslanik, James},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00178.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {227--243},
title = {{Interannual Variability of Arctic Landfast Ice between 1976 and 2007}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00178.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Yu2020,
abstract = {Compound drought and heat event (CDHE) causes severe impacts on agriculture, ecosystem, and human health. Based on daily maximum surface air temperature and meteorological drought composite index data in China, changing features of CDHEs in warm season from 1961 to 2018 is explored at a daily time scale based on a strict and objective definition in this study. Results reveal that CDHEs have occurred more frequently and widely in China, especially since the late 1990s. Notably, such changes are more obvious in Southwest China, eastern Northwest China, northern North China, and the coastal area of southeastern China. A prominent feature is that persistent CDHEs on a daily scale have increased significantly. To better understand climate change of compound extreme events, further studies on the physical mechanism, especially attribution analyses at a regional scale, are urgently needed.},
author = {Yu, Rong and Zhai, Panmao},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-71312-3},
file = {::},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {dec},
number = {1},
pages = {14576},
title = {{More frequent and widespread persistent compound drought and heat event observed in China}},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-71312-3},
volume = {10},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Yu2015a,
author = {Yu, Yan and Notaro, Michael and Liu, Zhengyu and Wang, Fuyao and Alkolibi, Fahad and Fadda, Eyad and Bakhrjy, Fawzieh},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD022611},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {1739--1758},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {{Climatic controls on the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Toward the development of a seasonal dust prediction model}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014JD022611},
volume = {120},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Yuan2018,
author = {Yuan, Xing and Wang, Linying and Wood, Eric F.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0077.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {S86--S90},
title = {{Anthropogenic Intensification of Southern African Flash Droughts as Exemplified by the 2015/16 Season}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0077.1},
volume = {99},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Yuan2016,
abstract = {Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB) in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs) for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.},
author = {Yuan, Fei and Ma, Mingwei and Ren, Liliang and Shen, Hongren and Li, Yue and Jiang, Shanhu and Yang, Xiaoli and Zhao, Chongxu and Kong, Hao},
doi = {10.1155/2016/2905198},
editor = {Ertsen, Maurits W},
file = {::},
issn = {1687-9309},
journal = {Advances in Meteorology},
pages = {2905198},
publisher = {Hindawi Publishing Corporation},
title = {{Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/2905198},
volume = {2016},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Yue2013,
abstract = {We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21st century (2046–2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25–0.60 of the variance in observed annual area burned during 1980–2004, depending on the ecoregion. We also parameterize daily area burned with temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. This approach explains ∼0.5 of the variance in observed area burned over forest ecoregions but shows no predictive capability in the semi-arid regions of Nevada and California. By applying the meteorological fields from 15 climate models to our fire prediction models, we quantify the robustness of our wildfire projections at midcentury. We calculate increases of 24–124{\%} in area burned using regressions and 63–169{\%} with the parameterization. Our projections are most robust in the southwestern desert, where all GCMs predict significant (p {\textless} 0.05) meteorological changes. For forested ecoregions, more GCMs predict significant increases in future area burned with the parameterization than with the regressions, because the latter approach is sensitive to hydrological variables that show large inter-model variability in the climate projections. The parameterization predicts that the fire season lengthens by 23 days in the warmer and drier climate at midcentury. Using a chemical transport model, we find that wildfire emissions will increase summertime surface organic carbon aerosol over the western United States by 46–70{\%} and black carbon by 20–27{\%} at midcentury, relative to the present day. The pollution is most enhanced during extreme episodes: above the 84th percentile of concentrations, OC increases by ∼90{\%} and BC by ∼50{\%}, while visibility decreases from 130 km to 100 km in 32 Federal Class 1 areas in Rocky Mountains Forest.},
author = {Yue, Xu and Mickley, Loretta J. and Logan, Jennifer A. and Kaplan, Jed O.},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.06.003},
issn = {13522310},
journal = {Atmospheric Environment},
month = {oct},
pages = {767--780},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231013004573?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231013004573},
volume = {77},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Zahn2018,
author = {Zahn, Matthias and Akperov, Mirseid and Rinke, Annette and Feser, Frauke and Mokhov, Igor I.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027439},
issn = {2169897X},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
month = {mar},
number = {5},
pages = {2737--2751},
title = {{Trends of Cyclone Characteristics in the Arctic and Their Patterns From Different Reanalysis Data}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017JD027439},
volume = {123},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zaninelli2019,
abstract = {Changes between two time slices (1961–1990 and 2071–2100) in hydroclimatological conditions for South America have been examined using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual mean precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E P ) are jointly considered through the balances of land water and energy. Drying or wetting conditions, associated with changes in land water availability and atmospheric demand, are analysed in the Budyko space. The water supply limit (E limited by P) is exceeded at about 2{\%} of the grid points, while the energy limit to evapotranspiration (E = E P ) is overall valid. Most of the continent, except for the southeast and some coastal areas, presents a shift toward drier conditions related to a decrease in water availability (the evaporation rate E/P increases) and, mostly over much of Brazil, to an increase in the aridity index (Ф = E P /P). These changes suggest less humid conditions with decreasing surface runoff over Amazonia and the Brazilian Highlands. In contrast, Argentina and the coasts of Ecuador and Peru are characterized by a tendency toward wetter conditions associated with an increase of water availability and a decrease of aridity index, primarily due to P increasing faster than both E and E P . This trend towards wetter soil conditions suggest that the chances of having larger periods of flooding and enhanced river discharges would increase over parts of southeastern South America. Interannual variability increases with Ф (for a given time slice) and with climate change (for a given aridity regimen). There are opposite interannual variability responses to the cliamte change in Argentina and Brazil by which the variability increases over the Brazilian Highlands and decreases in central-eastern Argentina.},
author = {Zaninelli, Pablo G. and Men{\'{e}}ndez, Claudio G. and Falco, Magdalena and L{\'{o}}pez-Franca, Noelia and Carril, Andrea F.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4225-0},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
keywords = {Aridity index,Budyko space,Climate change,Hydroclimate of South America,Regional climate models},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {819--830},
title = {{Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4225-0},
volume = {52},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zappa2013b,
author = {Zappa, Giuseppe and Shaffrey, Len C. and Hodges, Kevin I. and Sansom, Phil G. and Stephenson, David B.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {16},
pages = {5846--5862},
title = {{A Multimodel Assessment of Future Projections of North Atlantic and European Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Climate Models}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1},
volume = {26},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Zarei2016,
author = {Zarei, Abdol Rassoul and Moghimi, Mohammad Mehdi and Mahmoudi, Mohammad Reza},
doi = {10.1007/s11269-016-1501-9},
issn = {0920-4741},
journal = {Water Resources Management},
month = {nov},
number = {14},
pages = {5479--5500},
title = {{Parametric and Non-Parametric Trend of Drought in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Using RDI Index}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-016-1501-9},
volume = {30},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zargar2011,
author = {Zargar, Amin and Sadiq, Rehan and Naser, Bahman and Khan, Faisal I.},
doi = {10.1139/a11-013},
issn = {1181-8700},
journal = {Environmental Reviews},
month = {dec},
pages = {333--349},
title = {{A review of drought indices}},
url = {http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/a11-013},
volume = {19},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Zarzycki2016,
abstract = {Tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly those that are intense and/or slow moving, induce sea surface temperature (SST) reductions along their tracks (commonly referred to as cold wakes) that provide a negative feedback on storm energetics by weakening surface enthalpy fluxes. While computing gains have allowed for simulated TC intensity to increase in global climate models as a result of increased horizontal resolution, many configurations utilize prescribed, noninteractive SSTs as a surface boundary condition to minimize computational cost and produce more accurate TC climatologies. Here, an idealized slab ocean is coupled to a 0.25° variable-resolution version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to improve closure of the surface energy balance and reproduce observed Northern Hemisphere cold wakes. This technique produces cold wakes that are realistic in structure and evolution and with magnitudes similar to published observations, without impacting large-scale SST climatology. Multimember ensembles show that the overall number of TCs generated by the model is reduced by 5{\%}–9{\%} when allowing for two-way air–sea interactions. TC intensity is greatly impacted; the strongest 1{\%} of all TCs are 20–30 hPa (4–8 m s−1) weaker, and the number of simulated Saffir–Simpson category 4 and 5 TCs is reduced by 65{\%} in slab ocean configurations. Reductions in intensity are in line with published thermodynamic theory. Additional offline experiments and sensitivity simulations demonstrate this response is both significant and robust. These results imply caution should be exercised when assessing high-resolution prescribed SST climate simulations capable of resolving intense TCs, particularly if discrete analysis of extreme events is desired.},
author = {Zarzycki, Colin M.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0273.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Climate models,General circulation models,Multigrid models,Numerical analysis/modeling,Tropical cyclones},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {8589--8610},
title = {{Tropical Cyclone Intensity Errors Associated with Lack of Two-Way Ocean Coupling in High-Resolution Global Simulations}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0273.1},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zekollari2019,
author = {Zekollari, Harry and Huss, Matthias and Farinotti, Daniel},
doi = {10.5194/tc-13-1125-2019},
issn = {1994-0424},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
month = {apr},
number = {4},
pages = {1125--1146},
title = {{Modelling the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps under the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble}},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/1125/2019/},
volume = {13},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zeleke2017,
abstract = {We analyse rainfall extreme events in Ethiopia from 1979 to 2014 using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) derived from both station and satellite-based observation data sets. Causal mechanisms of extreme events are also discussed. Trend principal component (TPC), regression, wavelet and composite analyses are used to investigate the trend, frequency and inter/intra-annual variability of extreme events (dryness/wetness of rainfall) over Ethiopia. All methods of analysis, applied to monthly mean data, show that the north and northwest regions of Ethiopia experienced frequent and more severe drought conditions centred at the year 1983/1984, a recovery in the middle of the study period and a return to moderate dry events in recent years. For the southern and southwestern regions, drought conditions have become more frequent and intense during the study period, particularly since ?1997. Analysis at the seasonal scale shows that the observed drying trend over the south and southwestern regions of the country is dominated by the spring season, which corresponds to the season of maximum precipitation. No observed long-term trend is found in the north, northwestern and central mountainous regions of the country. This contrast reflects differing climate sensitivities of these different portions of the country: the observed periodicity of dryness/wetness over the northern regions corresponds largely to ENSO variability in both the spring and summer rainy seasons, while the drying trend in the south and southwest is associated with Atlantic Ocean warming and sea surface temperature gradients across the western Pacific Ocean.},
author = {Zeleke, T T and Giorgi, F and Diro, G T and Zaitchik, B F},
doi = {10.1002/joc.5122},
issn = {0899-8418},
journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
keywords = {Ethiopia,PDSI,SPI,TPC,drought,variability,wavelet},
month = {nov},
number = {13},
pages = {4733--4748},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Trend and periodicity of drought over Ethiopia}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5122},
volume = {37},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zeng2019,
author = {Zeng, Zhenzhong and Ziegler, Alan D and Searchinger, Timothy and Yang, Long and Chen, Anping and Ju, Kunlu and Piao, Shilong and Li, Laurent Z X and Ciais, Philippe and Chen, Deliang and Liu, Junguo and Azorin-Molina, Cesar and Chappell, Adrian and Medvigy, David and Wood, Eric F.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0622-6},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {979--985},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{A reversal in global terrestrial stilling and its implications for wind energy production}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0622-6},
volume = {9},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zha2017,
author = {Zha, Jinlin and Wu, Jian and Zhao, Deming and Yang, Qidong},
doi = {10.1016/j.jweia.2017.07.019},
issn = {0167-6105},
journal = {Journal of Wind Engineering {\&} Industrial Aerodynamics},
keywords = {near-surface wind speed},
pages = {156--167},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Changes of the probabilities in different ranges of near-surface wind speed in China during the period for 1970–2011}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2017.07.019},
volume = {169},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zha2019,
abstract = {A lasting decrease in the near-surface wind speed (SWS) in China has been revealed, but a following short-term strengthening in the SWS was rarely noted. In this paper, the daily mean SWS observed datasets from 328 measurement stations in Eastern China during the period 1981–2011 were used to investigate the facts and causes of the observed short-term strengthening in winter SWS in recent decades. The major results are summarized as follows: the SWS showed a significant decrease in the last 30 years, but a short-term strengthening in SWS was observed during the winter since 2000 in Eastern China. The SWS in Eastern China showed a significant decrease of − 0.11 m s−1 decade−1 from 1981 to 1999, followed by a weak increase of 0.0008 m s−1 decade−1 from 2000 to 2011. The short-term strengthening in the SWS since 2000 was mainly induced by the changes of the pressure-gradient force (PGF), which could be attributed to the changes of the sea-level pressure (SLP) in the region (51°–69.75° N, 51.75°–111.75° E). Furthermore, the changes of the PGF during the two periods of 1981–1999 and 2000–2011 were consistent with those of the SLP in the region (51°–69.75° N, 51.75°–111.75° E). The correlation coefficient between PGF and SLP was 0.32 and 0.66 during the period 1981–1999 and 2000–2011, respectively. Therefore, the effects of the changes in SLP over the region (51°–69.75° N, 51.75°–111.75° E) on changes of SWS in the Eastern China should be significant.},
author = {Zha, Jinlin and Wu, Jian and Zhao, Deming and Tang, Jianping},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2471-z},
issn = {1434-4483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
number = {1},
pages = {119--134},
title = {{A possible recovery of the near-surface wind speed in Eastern China during winter after 2000 and the potential causes}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2471-z},
volume = {136},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zha2020,
abstract = {The slowdown of the near-surface wind speed (SWS) has been extensively reported in China, but future projections of the SWS are rare. In this study, the wind speeds of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets were compared with observations over Eastern China, and the possible influences of increasing CO2 emissions on the changes in SWS were investigated. The results show that although the CMIP5 models reproduced the spatial pattern of SWSs, they underestimated the long-term reduction of the SWSs during the historical period from 1979 to 2005. Compared to the traditional arithmetic mean ensemble method (AMEM), the relative error in the weighted mean ensemble method (WMEM) decreased by 8.5{\%}, and the root-mean square error decreased by 0.14 m s−1. Compared to the WMEM, a smaller error was obtained for the results of the statistical downscaling model (SDM), which was established based on the principal component analysis and the stepwise regression equation and used the ensemble meteorological variables as predictor. Based on the SDM, CO2 emission increases could induce the decreases of SWSs in the future, with the significantly decreasing trends of − 0.007 and − 0.002 m s−1 decade−1 under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios, respectively. The probability of annual mean SWSs exceeding 2.37 m s−1 decreased by 12.1{\%} under RCP8.5 relative to RCP4.5. Furthermore, the annual mean SWSs could show a weak strengthening over the next 20 years.},
author = {Zha, Jinlin and Wu, Jian and Zhao, Deming and Fan, Wenxuan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05118-4},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {3},
pages = {2361--2385},
title = {{Future projections of the near-surface wind speed over eastern China based on CMIP5 datasets}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05118-4},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zhai2017,
abstract = {In this study, the intensity, area, and duration of droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI was calculated on monthly data for 530 meteorological stations in China for the period 1960–2013. The time series were analyzed for ten major hydrological regions of China, respectively. The relationships between the intensity and the area of droughts for a specific duration were analyzed by the intensity–area–duration method. The results show that areas with a significant trend in dryness can be found in a band reaching from the southwest to the northeast of China, while areas with significant trends in wetness are especially detected in the northern river basins in recent decades. In addition, for recent years (2000–2013), most of the ten major hydrological regions show opposite trends in the SPI when compared to the whole study period (1960–2013) except for the central and southwestern parts of China. This dryness/wetness trends are related to the intensity and duration of drought events, which have been stronger and lasted longer in the detected dryness band except for some northern river basins. A regional shift of drought centers is found from the northwest to the southeast within Central China. Moreover, a decreasing trend in drought area is observed, which might be related to the regional changes in precipitation pattern associated with the atmosphere–ocean interaction. Changes in the SST of the Tropical Pacific and the Tropical Indian Ocean may have resulted in frequent severe drought events of small areal extent in the central and southwestern parts of China. For the study period, the most severe droughts that covered large areas mainly occurred in the north and west of China during the mid-to-late twentieth century. However, in the early twenty-first century, the most severe droughts were located in the southwest of China covering areas less than 0.7 million km2. Conclusively, drought areas show a decreasing tendency, while more intense droughts of longer duration have been experienced, especially in the south of China, in the last decades.},
author = {Zhai, Jianqing and Huang, Jinlong and Su, Buda and Cao, Lige and Wang, Yanjun and Jiang, Tong and Fischer, Thomas},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3066-y},
issn = {1432-0894},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = {1},
pages = {151--168},
title = {{Intensity–area–duration analysis of droughts in China 1960–2013}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3066-y},
volume = {48},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zhang2019d,
author = {Zhang, Man and Chen, Yaning and Shen, Yanjun and Li, Baofu},
doi = {10.1007/s11442-019-1581-6},
issn = {1009-637X},
journal = {Journal of Geographical Sciences},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {3--28},
publisher = {Science Press},
title = {{Tracking climate change in Central Asia through temperature and precipitation extremes}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11442-019-1581-6},
volume = {29},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2013,
abstract = {The predicted future of the global marine environment, as a combined result of forcing due to climate change (e.g. warming and acidification) and other anthropogenic perturbation (e.g. eutrophication), presents a challenge to the sustainability of ecosystems from tropics to high latitudes. Among the various associated phenomena of ecosystem deterioration, hypoxia can cause serious problems in coastal areas as well as oxygen minimum zones in the open ocean (Diaz and Rosenberg 2008 Science 321 926-9, Stramma et al 2008 Science 320 655-8). The negative impacts of hypoxia include changes in populations of marine organisms, such as large-scale mortality and behavioral responses, as well as variations of species distributions, biodiversity, physiological stress, and other sub-lethal effects (e. g. growth and reproduction). Social and economic activities that are related to services provided by the marine ecosystems, such as tourism and fisheries, can be negatively affected by the aesthetic outcomes as well as perceived or real impacts on seafood quality (STAP 2011 (Washington, DC: Global Environment Facility) p 88). Moreover, low oxygen concentration in marine waters can have considerable feedbacks to other compartments of the Earth system, like the emission of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, and can affect the global biogeochemical cycles of nutrients and trace elements. It is of critical importance to prediction and adaptation strategies that the key processes of hypoxia in marine environments be precisely determined and understood (cf Zhang et al 2010 Biogeosciences 7 1-24).},
author = {Zhang, J. and Cowie, G. and Naqvi, S W A},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015025},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {global change,hypoxia,hysteresis,marine ecosystem,sensitivity},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {015025},
title = {{Hypoxia in the changing marine environment}},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015025},
volume = {8},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Zhang2016e,
abstract = {Dust storms and sandy dust events originating in arid and semi-arid areas can transport particulate material, pollutants, and potential transport long distances from their sources. Exposure to desert dust particles is generally acknowledged to endanger human health. However, most studies have examined anthropogenic particulate sources, with few studies considering contributions from natural desert dust. A systematic literature review was undertaken using the ISI Web of Knowledge and PubMed databases with the objective of identifying all studies presenting results on the potential health impact from desert dust particles across the world. This review reveals an imbalance between the areas most exposed to dust and the areas most studied in terms of health effects. Among the human health effects of dust storms are mortality and morbidity, arising from respiratory system, circulatory system, and other diseases. We summarize the quantitative results of current scientific health research and possible pathological mechanisms, and describe some of the many challenges related to understanding health effects from exposures to desert dust particles. Overall, for respiratory and circulatory mortality, both positive and negative associations have been reported for PM10 of desert dust, but only a positive relationship was reported between PM2.5–10 and mortality, and a positive relationship was also reported between PM2.5 and human mortality. Future pathological studies should continue to focus on those mechanisms causing the most harmful effect of desert dust on respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. More attention should also be paid to the association between desert dust and the morbidity of other diseases, such as those affecting the reproductive system and nervous system.},
author = {Zhang, Xuelei and Zhao, Lijing and Tong, Daniel and Wu, Guangjian and Dan, Mo and Teng, Bo},
doi = {10.3390/atmos7120158},
issn = {2073-4433},
journal = {Atmosphere},
month = {dec},
number = {12},
pages = {158},
title = {{A Systematic Review of Global Desert Dust and Associated Human Health Effects}},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/7/12/158},
volume = {7},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Jing2019,
author = {Zhang, Jing and Shen, Yanjun},
doi = {10.1007/s11442-019-1584-3},
issn = {1009-637X},
journal = {Journal of Geographical Sciences},
keywords = {china,climate change,extreme drought,standardized precipitation evapotranspiration inde},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {67--83},
title = {{Spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought in China during 1961–2015}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11442-019-1584-3},
volume = {29},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2017e,
abstract = {Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50{\%} from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.},
author = {Zhang, Qinghong and Ni, Xiang and Zhang, Fuqing},
doi = {10.1038/srep42310},
issn = {2045-2322},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
month = {sep},
number = {1},
pages = {42310},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep42310},
volume = {7},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zhang2018a,
abstract = {This study modelled projected spatiotemporal changes in global wind and solar resources over land in the 21st century under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios using an ensemble mean drawn from 11 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. These models' performances were verified by comparing historical global near-surface wind speed and downward surface solar radiation over land. Compared to the baseline historical period 1985–2005, the distribution of relative projected changes in global wind and solar resources had great spatial and seasonal discrepancies. Under both climate scenarios, projected wind resources throughout the 21st century presented a decreasing trend in Asia and Europe but an increasing trend in the low-latitude Americas. In comparison, projected global solar resources over land generally showed an increasing trend throughout the 21st century, especially in Europe, eastern Asia, and eastern North America. Moreover, wind resources in the Americas had their most significant decrease and increase in January and July, respectively, while in Asia and Europe the decreasing trend as most prominent in January and October, respectively. The most significant increases in solar resources in the Americas, Asia, and Europe happened in October and July, respectively. Discrepancies between the variation trends of future global wind and solar resources suggest the complexity and nonlinearity of these resources' responses to future climate change.},
author = {Zhang, Feimin and Wang, Chenghai and Xie, Guohui and Kong, Weizheng and Jin, Shuanglong and Hu, Ju and Chen, Xi},
doi = {10.14171/J.2096-5117.GEI.2018.04.004},
issn = {2096-5117},
journal = {Global Energy Interconnection},
keywords = {climate change scenario,cmip project,future projection,wind and solar resources},
number = {4},
pages = {443--451},
title = {{Projection of global wind and solar resources over land in the 21st century}},
url = {https://www-sciencedirect-com.resursi.rtu.lv/science/article/pii/S2096511718300641},
volume = {1},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhang2019,
abstract = {Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), Japanese 55-year (JRA55), and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis datasets and station observational data, the variations in near-surface wind speed are analyzed in China. The results show that near-surface wind speeds decreased by approximately − 0.109 ms−1 decade−1 from 1958 to 2015 in China; however, this decreasing trend has not been evident since 2000. The decreasing trend was caused by the weakening of both the zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind vectors during all seasons. Weakened v components are closely related to the weakened Siberian High (SH), and the decreasing pressure gradient associated with the SH causes a reduction in the north wind. The reduction in the u component has a limited association with the SH from a nationwide perspective, and the enhanced geopotential height over Northeast Asia plays a non-negligible role in the variability of u and causes a weakening of the prevailing west wind in Northeast China. The results also show that the JRA55 reanalysis dataset can better reflect the changes and spatial distribution of near-surface wind speeds in China than can the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets. The correlation coefficient between the wind speed anomalies in the JRA55 and observational datasets is 0.842, which is notably larger than that in the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets (0.527 and 0.576, respectively).},
author = {Zhang, Ruhua and Zhang, Shiyan and Luo, Jiali and Han, Yuanyuan and Zhang, Junxia},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-019-02769-0},
issn = {1434-4483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
number = {3},
pages = {2785--2801},
title = {{Analysis of near-surface wind speed change in China during 1958–2015}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02769-0},
volume = {137},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2016c,
abstract = {The effects of nutrient distribution and structure on the acidity of coastal waters were analyzed based on the data of 48 surface water samples collected in the southwestern coast of the Laizhou Bay and its adjacent rivers (SWLZB) which are heavily influenced by nutrient-laden discharges. The concentration and structure of nutrients varied considerably along the coast owing to different contributors. The studied inshore waters exhibited a sign of acidification. The pH was significantly negatively correlated with the concentration of NO3-N, NO2-N, NH4-N and DSi, but showed no obvious correlation with the concentration of PO4-P and the ratio of TDN/TDP, DSi/DIN and DSi/PO4-P, respectively. The results indicated that the distribution of nutrients might well be an important environmental factor affecting the acidification of the SWLZB in warmer months.},
author = {Zhang, Jinfeng and Gao, Xuelu},
doi = {10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.06.095},
issn = {18793363},
journal = {Marine Pollution Bulletin},
keywords = {Coastal waters,Eutrophication,Nutrients,Ocean acidification},
number = {1-2},
pages = {295--304},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Nutrient distribution and structure affect the acidification of eutrophic ocean margins: A case study in southwestern coast of the Laizhou Bay, China}},
volume = {111},
year = {2016}
}
@incollection{Zhang2019b,
abstract = {Chapter 4: Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada of Canada's Changing Climate Report. This report is about how and why Canada's climate has changed and what changes are projected for the future. Led by Environment and Climate Change Canada, it is the first report to be released as part of Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. It documents changes across Canada in temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, permafrost, freshwater availability, and in Canada's three oceans.},
address = {Ottawa, ON, Canada},
author = {Zhang, Xuebin and Flato, Greg and Kirchmeier-Young, Megan and Vincent, L. A. and Wan, Hui and Wang, Xiaolan and Rong, Robin and Fyfe, John C. and L, G},
booktitle = {Canada's Changing Climate Report},
editor = {Bush, E. and Lemmen, D.S.},
keywords = {Canada,Climate change,freshwater,global warming,ice,oceans,permafrost,precipitation,snow,temperature},
pages = {112--193},
publisher = {Government of Canada},
title = {{Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada}},
url = {https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/},
year = {2019}
}
@article{doi:10.1002/eap.1660,
abstract = {Abstract Grassland degradation and desertification is a complex process, including both state conversion (e.g., grasslands to deserts) and gradual within-state change (e.g., greenness dynamics). Existing studies hardly separated the two components and analyzed it as a whole based on time series vegetation index data, which cannot provide a clear and comprehensive picture for grassland degradation and desertification. Here we propose an integrated assessment strategy, by considering both state conversion and within-state change of grasslands, to investigate grassland degradation and desertification process in Central Asia. First, annual maps of grasslands and sparsely vegetated land were generated to track the state conversions between them. The results showed increasing grasslands were converted to sparsely vegetated lands from 2000 to 2014, with the desertification region concentrating in the latitude range of 43–48° N. A frequency analysis of grassland vs. sparsely vegetated land classification in the last 15 yr allowed a recognition of persistent desert zone (PDZ), persistent grassland zone (PGZ), and transitional zone (TZ). The TZ was identified in southern Kazakhstan as one hotspot that was unstable and vulnerable to desertification. Furthermore, the trend analysis of Enhanced Vegetation Index during thermal growing season (EVITGS) was investigated in individual zones using linear regression and Mann-Kendall approaches. An overall degradation across the area was found; moreover, the second desertification hotspot was identified in northern Kazakhstan with significant decreasing in EVITGS, which was located in PGZ. Finally, attribution analyses of grassland degradation and desertification were conducted by considering precipitation, temperature, and three different drought indices. We found persistent droughts were the main factor for grassland degradation and desertification in Central Asia. Considering both state conversion and gradual within-state change processes, this study provided reference information for identification of desertification hotspots to support further grassland degradation and desertification treatment, and the method could be useful to be extended to other regions.},
author = {Zhang, Geli and Biradar, Chandrashekhar M and Xiao, Xiangming and Dong, Jinwei and Zhou, Yuting and Qin, Yuanwei and Zhang, Yao and Liu, Fang and Ding, Mingjun and Thomas, Richard J},
doi = {10.1002/eap.1660},
journal = {Ecological Applications},
keywords = {Central Asia,Enhanced Vegetation Index,MODIS,drought,gradual change,grassland degradation and desertification,remote sensing,state conversion},
number = {2},
pages = {442--456},
title = {{Exacerbated grassland degradation and desertification in Central Asia during 2000–2014}},
url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eap.1660},
volume = {28},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhang2019j,
abstract = {During 1973–2014, a reduction trend in the observed surface wind speed (10 m) in the Northern Hemisphere lands has been widely reported; this reduction is referred to as “global stilling.” The primary determining factors of global stilling include atmospheric circulation, turbulent friction, and surface friction when ignoring the vertical influencing factors. Most of the existing studies on the attribution of global stilling do not take changing surface friction into account. In addition, there are other changes in the climate system, such as aerosol loading, which could have an impact on atmospheric circulation, but are not included in the majority of current models either. Here, we developed a novel approach based on modeled winds calculated from sea level pressure observations and applied the method to approximately 4000 weather stations in the Northern Hemisphere lands from 1973 to 2014 to attribute the stilling in the three factors. In our methods, we neglected the vertical influencing factors on surface wind speed but took the aerosols' changes on atmospheric circulation and gradual urbanization effect on surface wind speed into account. We found that atmospheric circulation has dictated the monthly variation in surface wind speed during the past four decades. However, the increased surface friction dominates the long-term declining trend of wind stilling. Our studies had uncertainties while neglecting the influence of vertical factors on surface wind stilling, despite most of the existing studies showing their effect was minor compared to the three factors explored in our study.},
author = {Zhang, Zhengtai and Wang, Kaicun and Chen, Deliang and Li, Jianping and Dickinson, Robert},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0691.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {nov},
number = {21},
pages = {7421--7435},
title = {{Increase in Surface Friction Dominates the Observed Surface Wind Speed Decline during 1973–2014 in the Northern Hemisphere Lands}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0691.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhang2016f,
abstract = {A 20-yr simulation with a fine-resolution regional atmospheric model for projected late twenty-first-century conditions in Hawaii is presented. The pseudo-global-warming method is employed, and the boundary conditions are based on a multimodel mean of projections made with global coupled models run with a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results show that surface air temperature over land increases {\~{}}2°-4°C with the greatest warming at the highest topographic heights. A modest tendency for the warming to be larger on the leeward sides of the major islands is also apparent. Climatological rainfall is projected to change up to {\~{}}25{\%} at many locations. The currently wet windward sides of the major islands will have more clouds and receive more rainfall, while the currently dry leeward sides will generally have even less clouds and rainfall. The average trade wind inversion-base height and the mean marine boundary layer cloud heights are projected to exhibit only small changes. However, the frequency of days with clearly defined trade wind inversions is predicted to increase substantially ({\~{}}83{\%} to {\~{}}91{\%}). The extreme rainfall events are projected to increase significantly. An analysis of the model's moisture budget in the lower troposphere shows that the increased mean rainfall on the windward sides of the islands is largely attributable to increased boundary layer moisture in the warmer climate. Rainfall changes attributable to mean low-level circulation changes are modest in comparison.},
author = {Zhang, Chunxi and Wang, Yuqing and Hamilton, Kevin and Lauer, Axel},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0038.1},
issn = {08948755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {Climate change,Climate prediction,Numerical analysis/modeling,Regional models},
number = {23},
pages = {8333--8354},
title = {{Dynamical downscaling of the climate for the Hawaiian islands. Part II: Projection for the late twenty-first century}},
volume = {29},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zhang2012a,
abstract = {Heat waves have been linked to excess mortality and morbidity, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with a warming climate. This study compares exposure metrics to trigger heat wave and health warning systems (HHWS), and introduces a novel multi-level hybrid clustering method to identify potential dangerously hot days. Two-level and three-level hybrid clustering analysis as well as common indices used to trigger HHWS, including spatial synoptic classification (SSC), and the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of minimum and relative minimum temperature (using a 10day reference period), were calculated using a summertime weather dataset in Detroit from 1976 to 2006. The days classified as ‘hot' with hybrid clustering analysis, SSC, minimum and relative minimum temperature methods differed by method type. SSC tended to include the days with, on average, 2.5°C lower daily minimum temperature and 5.3°C lower dew point than days identified by other methods. These metrics were evaluated by comparing their performance in predicting excess daily mortality. The 99th percentile of minimum temperature was generally the most predictive, followed by the three-level hybrid clustering method, the 95th percentile of minimum temperature, SSC and others. Our proposed clustering framework has more flexibility and requires less substantial meteorological prior information than the synoptic classification methods. Comparison of these metrics in predicting excess daily mortality suggests that metrics thought to better characterize physiological heat stress by considering several weather conditions simultaneously may not be the same metrics that are better at predicting heat-related mortality, which has significant implications in HHWSs.},
author = {Zhang, Kai and Rood, Richard B. and Michailidis, George and Oswald, Evan M. and Schwartz, Joel D. and Zanobetti, Antonella and Ebi, Kristie L. and O'Neill, Marie S.},
doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2012.05.001},
issn = {01604120},
journal = {Environment International},
month = {oct},
pages = {23--29},
publisher = {Pergamon},
title = {{Comparing exposure metrics for classifying ‘dangerous heat' in heat wave and health warning systems}},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412012000992?via{\%}3Dihub https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0160412012000992},
volume = {46},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Zhao2017a,
author = {Zhao, Tianbao and Dai, Aiguo},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
month = {oct},
number = {3},
pages = {535--548},
title = {{Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x},
volume = {144},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zhao2018a,
abstract = {Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHIs (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI2m or 2.8 K higher UHIs during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored and anthropogenic heat during HWs are the primary contributors to the synergistic effects.},
author = {Zhao, Lei and Oppenheimer, Michael and Zhu, Qing and Baldwin, Jane W and Ebi, Kristie L and Bou-Zeid, Elie and Guan, Kaiyu and Liu, Xu},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa9f73},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {3},
pages = {34003},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9f73},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhao2015a,
abstract = {The increased exposure of human populations to heat stress is one of the likely consequences of global warming, and it has detrimental effects on health and labor capacity. Here, we consider the evolution of heat stress under climate change using 21 general circulation models (GCMs). Three heat stress indicators, based on both temperature and humidity conditions, are used to investigate present-day model biases and spreads in future climate projections. Present day estimates of heat stress indicators from observational data shows that humid tropical areas tend to experience more frequent heat stress than other regions do, with a total frequency of heat stress 250-300 d yr-1. The most severe heat stress is found in the Sahel and south India. Present-day GCM simulations tend to underestimate heat stress over the tropics due to dry and cold model biases. The model based estimates are in better agreement with observation in mid to high latitudes, but this is due to compensating errors in humidity and temperature. The severity of heat stress is projected to increase by the end of the century under climate change scenario RCP8.5, reaching unprecedented levels in some regions compared with observations. An analysis of the different factors contributing to the total spread of projected heat stress shows that spread is primarily driven by the choice of GCMs rather than the choice of indicators, even when the simulated indicators are bias-corrected. This supports the utility of the multi-model ensemble approach to assess the impacts of climate change on heat stress.},
author = {Zhao, Y. and Ducharne, A. and Sultan, B. and Braconnot, P. and Vautard, R.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084013},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {heat stress,heat stress indicator,projections,spread in GCMs and indicators},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {084013},
title = {{Estimating heat stress from climate-based indicators: present-day biases and future spreads in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=8/a=084013?key=crossref.e2db130af46af7ef917d4eb4a2eabd25},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
@article{ISI:000533290800001,
abstract = {Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) has undergone degradation as a result of recent climate change. This may alter the thermo-hydrological processes and unlock soil organic carbon, and thereby affect local hydrological, ecological, and climatic systems. The relationships between permafrost and climate change have received extensive attention, and in this paper we review climate change for permafrost regions of the QTP over the past 30 years. We summarize the current state and changes in permafrost distribution and thickness, ground temperature, and ground ice conditions. We focus on changes in permafrost thermal state and in active-layer thickness (ALT). Possible future changes in ground temperature and ALT are also discussed. Finally, we discuss the changes in hydrological processes and to ecosystems caused by permafrost degradation. Air temperature and ground temperature in the permafrost regions of the QTP have increased from 1980 to 2018, and the active layer has been thickening at a rate of 19.5 cm per decade. The response of permafrost to climate change is not as fast as in some reports, and permafrost degradation is slower than projected by models that do not account for conditions deep in permafrost.},
address = {111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA},
author = {Zhao, Lin and Zou, Defu and Hu, Guojie and Du, Erji and Pang, Qiangqiang and Xiao, Yao and Li, Ren and Sheng, Yu and Wu, Xiaodong and Sun, Zhe and Wang, Lingxiao and Wang, Chong and Ma, Lu and Zhou, Huayun and Liu, Shibo},
doi = {10.1002/ppp.2056},
issn = {1045-6740},
journal = {Permafrost and Periglacial Processes},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {396--405},
publisher = {WILEY},
title = {{Changing climate and the permafrost environment on the Qinghai–Tibet (Xizang) plateau}},
type = {Article},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ppp.2056},
volume = {31},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zhao2020,
abstract = {This paper describes projected frequency changes in extreme summer meteorological and hydrological droughts over North American catchments. It uses two large ensemble climate models (50-member CanESM2 and 40-member CESM1) under the RCP 8.5 scenario to robustly assess frequency changes up to the 100-year drought, relative to the 1980–2009 reference period. Meteorological droughts, linked solely to precipitation deficit, are represented by the 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), whereas hydrological droughts are characterized by the 1-month Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), based on hydrological simulation using a lumped hydrological model. Results show widely different patterns for future changes in extreme meteorological versus hydrological droughts. Future meteorological droughts show patterns of increasing and decreasing frequency that roughly match future expected changes of mean summer precipitation, although some regions are nonetheless projected to see more frequent extreme meteorological droughts despite increases in mean summer precipitation. The frequency changes for the 100-year meteorological droughts can be quite severe, with up to a 20-fold increase observed over some watersheds. On the other hand, hydrological droughts, which combine the effect of precipitation and temperature changes, show a mostly uniform pattern of large to very large increases in drought frequency. This shows that the projected temperature increase is a main driver of future extreme hydrological droughts, enough to overcome the projected increase in mean summer precipitation for many North American catchments. Projected changes in both meteorological and hydrological droughts get consistently worse for the longer considered return periods. In other words, frequency changes for the 100-year droughts are more significant than those expected for the 2- and 20-year droughts. This gradual worsening toward larger extremes has potentially large societal and economic impacts. The large projected increases in the frequency of extreme hydrological drought frequency (up to 27 times) are likely to severely stress water management systems across North America.},
author = {Zhao, Cha and Brissette, Fran{\c{c}}ois and Chen, Jie and Martel, Jean Luc},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124316},
issn = {00221694},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Climate change,Extreme droughts,Frequency analysis,Large ensemble climate models,North America},
month = {may},
pages = {124316},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Frequency change of future extreme summer meteorological and hydrological droughts over North America}},
volume = {584},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zhao2021,
author = {Zhao, Hai-Yan and Zhang, Wen-Qian and Zou, Xu-Kai and Zhang, Qiang and Shen, Zi-Qi and Mei, Ping},
doi = {10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2021.01.007},
journal = {Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology},
number = {1},
pages = {69--79},
title = {{Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Drought in China under Climate Change}},
volume = {42},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Zhao2016,
abstract = {Background: Europe once had widespread malaria, but today it is free from endemic transmission. Changing land use, agricultural practices, housing quality, urbanization, climate change, and improved healthcare are among the many factors thought to have played a role in the declines of malaria seen, but their effects and relative contributions have rarely been quantified. Methods: Spatial datasets on changes in climate, wealth, life expectancy, urbanization, and land use trends over the past century were combined with datasets depicting the reduction in malaria transmission across 31 European countries, and the relationships were explored. Moreover, the conditions in current malaria-eliminating countries were compared with those in Europe at the time of declining transmission and elimination to assess similarities. Results/conclusions: Indicators relating to socio-economic improvements such as wealth, life expectancy and urbanization were strongly correlated with the decline of malaria in Europe, whereas those describing climatic and land use changes showed weaker relationships. Present-day malaria-elimination countries have now arrived at similar socio-economic indicator levels as European countries at the time malaria elimination was achieved, offering hope for achievement of sustainable elimination.},
author = {Zhao, Xia and Smith, David L. and Tatem, Andrew J.},
doi = {10.1186/s12936-016-1175-z},
issn = {14752875},
journal = {Malaria Journal},
keywords = {Europe,GIS,Malaria elimination,Malaria risk mapping},
month = {mar},
number = {1},
pages = {122},
pmid = {26944257},
publisher = {BioMed Central},
title = {{Exploring the spatiotemporal drivers of malaria elimination in Europe}},
url = {https://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12936-016-1175-z},
volume = {15},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zhao2017b,
abstract = {Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0{\%}, rice by 3.2{\%}, maize by 7.4{\%}, and soybean by 3.1{\%}. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.},
author = {Zhao, Chuang and Liu, Bing and Piao, Shilong and Wang, Xuhui and Lobell, David B and Huang, Yao and Huang, Mengtian and Yao, Yitong and Bassu, Simona and Ciais, Philippe and Durand, Jean-Louis and Elliott, Joshua and Ewert, Frank and Janssens, Ivan A and Li, Tao and Lin, Erda and Liu, Qiang and Martre, Pierre and M{\"{u}}ller, Christoph and Peng, Shushi and Pe{\~{n}}uelas, Josep and Ruane, Alex C and Wallach, Daniel and Wang, Tao and Wu, Donghai and Liu, Zhuo and Zhu, Yan and Zhu, Zaichun and Asseng, Senthold},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1701762114},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {climate change impact,global food security,major food crops,temperature increase,yield},
month = {aug},
number = {35},
pages = {9326--9331},
pmid = {28811375},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
title = {{Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates}},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28811375 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC5584412 http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1701762114},
volume = {114},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zhao2016a,
abstract = {Global climate change will increase the frequency of hot temperatures, impairing health and productivity for millions of working people and raising labor costs. In mainland China, higherature subsidies (HTSs) are allocated to employees for each working day in extremely hot environments, but the potential heat-related increase in labor cost has not been evaluated so far. Here, we estimate the potential HTS cost in current and future climates under different scenarios of socioeconomic development and radiative forcing (Representative Concentration Pathway), taking uncertainties from the climate model structure and bias correction into account. On average, the total HTS in China is estimated at 38.6 billion yuan/y (US {\$}6.22 billion/y) over the 1979'2005 period, which is equivalent to 0.2{\%} of the gross domestic product (GDP). Assuming that the HTS standards (per employee per hot day) remain unchanged throughout the 21st century, the total HTS may reach 250 billion yuan/y in the 2030s and 1,000 billion yuan/y in 2100. We further show that, without specific adaptation, the increased HTS cost is mainly determined by population growth until the 2030s and climate change after the mid-21st century because of increasingly frequent hot weather. Accounting for the likely possibility that HTS standards follow the wages, the share of GDP devoted to HTS could become as high as 3{\%} at the end of 21st century.},
author = {Zhao, Yan and Sultan, Benjamin and Vautard, Robert and Braconnot, Pascale and Wang, Huijun J. and Ducharne, Agnes},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1521828113},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {ANOVA,CMIP5,Climate change,GDP,Higherature subsidies},
month = {apr},
number = {17},
pages = {4640--4645},
title = {{Potential escalation of heat-related working costs with climate and socioeconomic changes in China}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1521828113},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zheng2017a,
abstract = {Coastal floods can result from multiple forcing variables, such as rainfall and storm tides, that are simultaneously extreme. In these situations, flood risk estimation methods must account for the joint dependence between the forcing variables. The design variable method is a statistically rigorous, flexible and efficient approach for evaluating the joint probability distribution. However, in practice, a number of factors need to be considered in order to produce accurate estimates of flood risk; these include data selection and pairing, temporal variability of dependence, dependence parameter inference and bias, the estimation of confidence intervals, and the incorporation of possible time-varying changes to each of the forcing variables due to climate change. This paper addresses these factors using a case study from Perth, Western Australia, to show how the design variable method can be applied to coastal flood risk under historical and future climates.},
author = {Zheng, F. and Leonard, M. and Westra, S.},
doi = {10.1111/jfr3.12180},
issn = {1753318X},
journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
keywords = {Flood risk,Joint probability,climate change,uncertainty analysis},
month = {dec},
number = {4},
pages = {522--534},
title = {{Application of the design variable method to estimate coastal flood risk}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/jfr3.12180},
volume = {10},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Zheng2016a,
abstract = {Based on a 20-year (1991-2010) simulation of dust aerosol deposition with the global climate model CAM5.1 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1), the spatial and temporal variations of dust aerosol deposition were analyzed using climate statistical methods. The results indicated that the annual amount of global dust aerosol deposition was approximately 1161 ± 31 Mt, with a decreasing trend, and its interannual variation range of 2.70{\%} over 1991-2010. The 20-year average ratio of global dust dry to wet depositions was 1.12, with interannual variation of 2.24{\%}, showing the quantity of dry deposition of dust aerosol was greater than dust wet deposition. High dry deposition was centered over continental deserts and surrounding regions, while wet deposition was a dominant deposition process over the North Atlantic, North Pacific and northern Indian Ocean. Furthermore, both dry and wet deposition presented a zonal distribution. To examine the regional changes of dust aerosol deposition on land and sea areas, we chose the North Atlantic, Eurasia, northern Indian Ocean, North Pacific and Australia to analyze the interannual and seasonal variations of dust deposition and dry-to-wet deposition ratio. The deposition amounts of each region showed interannual fluctuations with the largest variation range at around 26.96{\%} in the northern Indian Ocean area, followed by the North Pacific (16.47{\%}), Australia (9.76{\%}), North Atlantic (9.43{\%}) and Eurasia (6.03{\%}). The northern Indian Ocean also had the greatest amplitude of interannual variation in dry-to-wet deposition ratio, at 22.41{\%}, followed by the North Atlantic (9.69{\%}), Australia (6.82{\%}), North Pacific (6.31{\%}) and Eurasia (4.36{\%}). Dust aerosol presented a seasonal cycle, with typically strong deposition in spring and summer and weak deposition in autumn and winter. The dust deposition over the northern Indian Ocean exhibited the greatest seasonal change range at about 118.00{\%}, while the North Atlantic showed the lowest seasonal change at around 30.23{\%}. The northern Indian Ocean had the greatest seasonal variation range of dry-to-wet deposition ratio, at around 74.57{\%}, while Eurasia had the lowest, at around 12.14{\%}.},
author = {Zheng, Yu and Zhao, Tianliang and Che, Huizheng and Liu, Yu and Han, Yongxiang and Liu, Chong and Xiong, Jie and Liu, Jianhui and Zhou, Yike},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.086},
issn = {18791026},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
keywords = {Climate model,Dust aerosol deposition,Interannual variations,Seasonal cycle},
month = {jul},
pages = {861--868},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{A 20-year simulated climatology of global dust aerosol deposition}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969716305101},
volume = {557-558},
year = {2016}
}
@article{ZHONG2021141670,
abstract = {The timing and duration of snow cover critically affect surface albedo, surface energy budgets, and hydrological processes. Previous studies using in-situ or satellite remote sensing data have mostly been site-specific (Siberia and the Tibetan Plateau), and remote sensing and/or modeling data include large uncertainties. Here, we used 1103 stations with long-term (1966–2012) ground-based snow measurements to investigate spatial and temporal variability in snow cover timing and duration and factors impacting those changes across the Eurasian continent. We found the earliest annual onset and latest disappearance of snow cover occurred along the Arctic coast, where the long-term (1971–2000) mean annual snow cover duration (SCD) was more than nine months which was the longest in this study. The shortest SCD, ≤10 days, was found in southern China. The first and last dates of snow cover (FD and LD, respectively), SCD, and the ratio of SCD to snow season length (RDL) were generally latitude dependent over the Eurasian Continent, while were elevation dependent on the Tibetan Plateau. During the period from 1966 through 2012, FD delayed and LD advanced by {\~{}}1 day/decade, and RDL increased by about 0.01/decade. The LD, SCD, and RDL anomalies (relative to the period 1971–2000) were also significantly correlated with latitude. Advances in LD and positive RDL were more significant in low-latitude regions, decreases in SCD were more significant in high-latitude regions. Changes in SCD were related to air temperature and snowfall in autumn and warming in spring. SCD specifically increased in the northern Xinjiang and northeastern China due to increased snowfall. The significant reduction in SCD in southwestern Russia, the Tibetan Plateau and along the Yangtze River was mainly affected by climate warming.},
author = {Zhong, Xinyue and Zhang, Tingjun and Kang, Shichang and Wang, Jian},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141670},
issn = {0048-9697},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
keywords = {Snow cover duration,Snow cover timing,Spatiotemporal variability,The Eurasian continent},
pages = {141670},
title = {{Spatiotemporal variability of snow cover timing and duration over the Eurasian continent during 1966–2012}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720351998},
volume = {750},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Zhou2018,
abstract = {Associated with global warming, climate extremes such as extreme temperature will significantly increase. Understanding how climate change will impact the airflights is important to the planning of future flight operations. In this study, the impacts of 1.5 and 2 degree's global warming on the aircraft takeoff performance in China are investigated using a unique climate projection data from an international collaboration project named HAPPI. It is found that the mean summer daily maximum temperature, which is a major factor that affects the flight through changing the aircraft's takeoff weight, will increase significantly with magnitude less than 1.5 °C over most parts of China except for the Tibetan Plateau. The half a degree additional global warming will lead to higher extreme temperature in the arid and semi-arid western China, the Tibetan Plateau and the northeastern China, while the change in eastern China is weak. Five airports including Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming, Lasa and Urumqi will see ∼1.0°-2.0 °C (1.4°-3.0 °C) higher daily maximum temperature under 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) scenario. The half-degree additional warming will lead to a shift toward higher extreme temperature in these five sites. For both 1.5° and 2.0 °C scenarios, the number of weight-restriction days will increase significantly at 3 airports including Beijing, Shanghai, and Lasa. Urumqi will witness an increase of weight-restriction days only in 2.0 °C future.},
author = {Zhou, Tianjun and Ren, Liwen and Liu, Haiwen and Lu, Jingwen},
doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2018.03.018},
issn = {20959273},
journal = {Science Bulletin},
month = {jun},
number = {11},
pages = {700--707},
publisher = {Science China Press},
title = {{Impact of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming on aircraft takeoff performance in China}},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2095927318301695},
volume = {63},
year = {2018}
}
@article{ZhouBotao;WangZunya;Shi2018,
author = {Zhou, Botao and Wang, Zunya and Shi, Ying and Xu, Ying and Han, Zhenyu},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0428.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {aug},
number = {15},
pages = {5873--5889},
title = {{Historical and Future Changes of Snowfall Events in China under a Warming Background}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0428.1},
volume = {31},
year = {2018}
}
@article{10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0134.1,
author = {Zhou, Chunl{\"{u}}e and Wang, Kaicun and Qi, Dan and Tan, Jianguo},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0134.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {1},
pages = {S97--S103},
title = {{Attribution of a Record-Breaking Heatwave Event in Summer 2017 over the Yangtze River Delta [in “Explaining Extremes of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0134.1},
volume = {100},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhou2021,
abstract = {The eastern U.S. 2019 November cold outbreak was mainly caused by extreme northerly winds. CMIP6 results find nonsignificant dynamical effects of an-thropogenic climate change on such regional winds; thermodynamic effects alone decreased the probability of this cold event by 70{\%}.},
author = {Zhou, Chunl{\"{u}}e and Dai, Aiguo and Wang, Junhong and Chen, Deliang},
doi = {10.1175/bams-d-20-0171.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {S17--S23},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
title = {{Quantifying Human-Induced Dynamic and Thermodynamic Contributions to Severe Cold Outbreaks Like November 2019 in the Eastern United States [in “Explaining Extremes of 2019 from a Climate Perspective”]}},
volume = {102},
year = {2021}
}
@article{Zhu2016b,
abstract = {Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with consequences for the functioning of the Earth system and provision of ecosystem services(1,2). Yet how global vegetation is responding to the changing environment is not well established. Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982-2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25{\%} to 50{\%} of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4{\%} of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70{\%} of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9{\%}), climate change (8{\%}) and land cover change (LCC) (4{\%}). CO2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States. The regional effects of unexplained factors suggest that the next generation of ecosystem models will need to explore the impacts of forest demography, differences in regional management intensities for cropland and pastures, and other emerging productivity constraints such as phosphorus availability.},
author = {Zhu, Zaichun and Piao, Shilong and Myneni, Ranga B and Huang, Mengtian and Zeng, Zhenzhong and Canadell, Josep G and Ciais, Philippe and Sitch, Stephen and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Arneth, Almut and Cao, Chunxiang and Cheng, Lei and Kato, Etsushi and Koven, Charles and Li, Yue and Lian, Xu and Liu, Yongwen and Liu, Ronggao and Mao, Jiafu and Pan, Yaozhong and Peng, Shushi and Penuelas, Josep and Poulter, Benjamin and Pugh, Thomas A M and Stocker, Benjamin D and Viovy, Nicolas and Wang, Xuhui and Wang, Yingping and Xiao, Zhiqiang and Yang, Hui and Zaehle, Soenke and Zeng, Ning},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate3004},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Ecological modelling,change ecology},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {791--795},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Greening of the Earth and its drivers}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3004},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Zhu2019b,
abstract = {It has been suggested that global warming impacts on human thermal comfort will cause an increase in the heat stress and a decrease in the cold stress in the future. A recent study has shown elevated increases in human-perceived equivalent temperature (HPET) by using a single index for summer and winter seasons (Li et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0036-2). However, they have not considered multiple indices with combined effects on deriving HPET, which can result in large uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on HPET and related extremes. Therefore, we develop a new framework with high-resolution projections and an ensemble of 10 indices to quantify the impacts of climate change on HPET and related perceived extremes as well as to address uncertainties in both empirical indices and emission scenarios over China. Our findings reveal that different combinations of climatic variables can lead to two opposite conclusions for both normal and extreme conditions. For example, by using indices only considering the combined effect of temperature and relative humidity, China is projected to have an elevated increase in the HPET and in the frequency of high-temperature extremes. By taking into account wind speed, the country expects to have the HPET even lower than the surface air temperature and an increase in the frequency of low-temperature extremes. In addition, the resulting range of HPET due to uncertainty in indices is greater than the uncertainty range derived from different emission scenarios for the entire country. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive assessment that explicitly addresses uncertainties in the HPET in order to improve the robustness and reliability of assessing climate change impacts on human-perceived temperature extremes.},
author = {Zhu, J. and Wang, S. and Huang, G.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JD029444},
issn = {21698996},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
keywords = {RCP,combined effect,multiple climatic variables,regional climate modeling,uncertainty},
month = {apr},
number = {7},
pages = {3800--3821},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
title = {{Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Human-Perceived Temperature Extremes and Underlying Uncertainties}},
volume = {124},
year = {2019}
}
@article{ISI:000516468800001,
abstract = {As a typical arid and semi-arid area, central Asia (CA) has scarce water resources and fragile ecosystems that are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. In this study, dynamic downscaling was conducted to produce a regional dataset that incorporated the time period 1986–2100 for the CA. The results show that dynamic downscaling significantly improves the simulation for the mean and extreme climate over the CA, compared to the driving CCSM4 model. We show that significant warming will occur over CA with 2.0 °C and 5.0 °C increasing under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively by the end of twenty-first century. The daily maximum temperature, the daily minimum temperature and the annual total number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 25 °C will also increase significantly. The annual total number of days with a minimum temperature less than 0 °C will decrease significantly. Long-term trends in the projected winter precipitation under different emission scenarios exhibit robust and increasing changes during the twenty-first century, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario with an increasing about 0.1 mm/day. Significant differences are shown in the projection of precipitation-related indices over CA under different emission scenarios, and the impact of emissions is apparent for the number of days with ≥ 10 mm of precipitation, the density of precipitation on days with ≥ 1 mm of precipitation, and particularly for the maximum consecutive number of dry days that will increase significantly under the RCP8.5 scenario. Therefore, reduced greenhouse gases emissions have implications for mitigating extreme drought events over the CA in the future.},
address = {ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK, NY, UNITED STATES},
author = {Zhu, Xian and Wei, Zhigang and Dong, Wenjie and Ji, Zhenming and Wen, Xiaohang and Zheng, Zhiyuan and Yan, Dongdong and Chen, Deliang},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05170-0},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {apr},
number = {7-8},
pages = {3279--3306},
publisher = {SPRINGER},
title = {{Dynamical downscaling simulation and projection for mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over central Asia}},
type = {Article},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05170-0},
volume = {54},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zhu2019a,
abstract = {The regional climate of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was simulated by dynamically downscaling reanalysis data and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and comparing trends of temperature and precipitation with gridded observations. Then, future CCSM4 projections under high and low emission scenarios were downscaled and compared with CCSM4 projections. Observations showed a marked upward trend in temperature and precipitation since 1979. The spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and precipitation in the TP were well represented by the reanalysis data. Downscaled simulations of ERA-Interim and CCSM4 were able to reproduce the spatial distribution of temperature in the TP; however, a cold bias was apparent in the central and western regions. Compared with precipitation observations, the downscaled CCSM4 simulation showed markedly different precipitation trends. Future climate projections indicated that temperatures will increase markedly in the TP, especially under the high emission RCP8.5 scenario. Under RCP4.5, both CCSM4 and the downscaled simulation projected a 1.5 °C increase in annual temperatures during 2006–2050, while under RCP8.5, the downscaled simulation projected an increase greater than 2.5 °C, and CCSM4 projected an increase of 2.0 °C. Emission scenarios had no apparent impact on projections of future precipitation. Therefore, to mitigate warming over the TP, reducing greenhouse gas emission should be a priority.},
author = {Zhu, Xian and Wei, Zhigang and Dong, Wenjie and Wen, Xiaohang and Zheng, Zhiyuan and Chen, Guangyu and Liu, Yajing},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-019-02841-9},
issn = {1434-4483},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
number = {1},
pages = {861--875},
title = {{Projected temperature and precipitation changes on the Tibetan Plateau: results from dynamical downscaling and CCSM4}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02841-9},
volume = {138},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zhu2018a,
abstract = {Declines of protein and minerals essential for humans, including iron and zinc, have been reported for crops in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, [CO2]. For the current century, estimates of the potential human health impact of these declines range from 138 million to 1.4 billion, depending on the nutrient. However, changes in plant-based vitamin content in response to [CO2] have not been elucidated. Inclusion of vitamin information would substantially improve estimates of health risks. Among crop species, rice is the primary food source for more than 2 billion people. We used multiyear, multilocation in situ FACE (free-air CO2 enrichment) experiments for 18 genetically diverse rice lines, including Japonica, Indica, and hybrids currently grown throughout Asia. We report for the first time the integrated nutritional impact of those changes (protein, micronutrients, and vitamins) for the 10 countries that consume the most rice as part of their daily caloric supply. Whereas our results confirm the declines in protein, iron, and zinc, we also find consistent declines in vitamins B1, B2, B5, and B9 and, conversely, an increase in vitamin E. A strong correlation between the impacts of elevated [CO2] on vitamin content based on the molecular fraction of nitrogen within the vitamin was observed. Finally, potential health risks associated with anticipated CO2-induced deficits of protein, minerals, and vitamins in rice were correlated to the lowest overall gross domestic product per capita for the highest rice-consuming countries, suggesting potential consequences for a global population of approximately 600 million.},
author = {Zhu, Chunwu and Kobayashi, Kazuhiko and Loladze, Irakli and Zhu, Jianguo and Jiang, Qian and Xu, Xi and Liu, Gang and Seneweera, Saman and Ebi, Kristie L. and Drewnowski, Adam and Fukagawa, Naomi K. and Ziska, Lewis H.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaq1012},
issn = {23752548},
journal = {Science Advances},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {eaaq1012},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries}},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaq1012},
volume = {4},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zhuan2018,
abstract = {This study proposes a method to estimate the timing of human-induced climate change (HICC) emergence from internal climate variability (ICV) for hydrological impact studies based on climate model ensembles. Specifically, ICV is defined as the inter-member difference in a multi-member ensemble of a climate model in which human-induced climate trends have been removed through a detrending method. HICC is defined as the mean of multiple climate models. The intersection between HICC and ICV curves is defined as the time of emergence (ToE) of HICC from ICV. A case study of the Hanjiang River watershed in China shows that the temperature change has already emerged from ICV during the last century. However, the precipitation change will be masked by ICV up to the middle of this century. With the joint contributions of temperature and precipitation, the ToE of streamflow occurs about one decade later than that of precipitation. This implies that consideration for water resource vulnerability to climate should be more concerned with adaptation to ICV in the near-term climate (present through mid-century), and with HICC in the long-term future, thus allowing for more robust adaptation strategies to water transfer projects in China.},
author = {Zhuan, Mei-Jia and Chen, Jie and Shen, Ming-Xi and Xu, Chong-Yu and Chen, Hua and Xiong, Li-Hua},
doi = {10.2166/nh.2018.059},
issn = {0029-1277},
journal = {Hydrology Research},
month = {apr},
number = {2},
pages = {421--437},
publisher = {IWA Publishing},
title = {{Timing of human-induced climate change emergence from internal climate variability for hydrological impact studies}},
url = {https://iwaponline.com/hr/article/49/2/421/37833/Timing-of-humaninduced-climate-change-emergence},
volume = {49},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zimmerman2010,
author = {Zimmerman, Rae and Faris, Craig},
doi = {10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05318.x},
issn = {00778923},
journal = {Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},
month = {may},
number = {1},
pages = {63--86},
publisher = {Wiley/Blackwell (10.1111)},
title = {{Chapter 4: Infrastructure impacts and adaptation challenges [in “Climate Change Adaptation in New York City: Building a Risk Management Response. New York City Panel on Climate Change 2010 Report”]}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05318.x},
volume = {1196},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Zinnert2019,
author = {Zinnert, Julie C. and Via, Stephen M. and Nettleton, Benjamin P. and Tuley, Philip A. and Moore, Laura J. and Stallins, Jon Anthony},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14635},
issn = {1354-1013},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
month = {jul},
number = {7},
pages = {2419--2430},
title = {{Connectivity in coastal systems: Barrier island vegetation influences upland migration in a changing climate}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.14635 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.14635},
volume = {25},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Ziska2007,
abstract = {Because of its ability to induce contact dermatitis, the establishment and spread of poison ivy is recognized as a significant public health concern. In the current study, we quantified potential changes in the biomass and urushiol content of poison ivy as a function of incremental changes in global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO 2 ). We also examined the rate of new leaf development following leaf removal to simulate responses to herbivory as functions of both CO 2 and plant size. The experimental CO 2 values (300, 400, 500. and 600 µmol mol −1 ) corresponded approximately to the concentration that existed during the middle of the 20th century, the current concentration and near and long-term projections for this century (2050 and 2090), respectively. Over 250 d, increasing CO 2 resulted in significant increases in leaf area, leaf and stem weight, and rhizome length relative to the 300 µmol mol −1 baseline with the greatest relative increase occurring from 300 to 400 µmol mol −1 . There was a nonsignificant (P = 0.18) increase in urushiol concentration in response to CO 2 ; however, because of the stimulatory effect of CO 2 on leaf biomass, the amount of urushiol produced per plant increased significantly for all CO 2 above the 300 µmol mol −1 baseline. Significant increases in the rate of leaf development following leaf removal were also observed with increasing CO 2 . Overall, these data confirm earlier, field-based reports on the CO 2 sensitivity of poison ivy but emphasize its ability to respond to even small (∼ 100 µmol mol −1 ) changes in CO 2 above the mid-20th century carbon dioxide baseline and suggest that its rate of spread, its ability to recover from herbivory, and its production of urushiol, may be enhanced in a future, higher CO 2 environment.},
author = {Ziska, L. H. and Sicher, R. C. and George, K. and Mohan, J. E.},
doi = {10.1614/ws-06-190},
issn = {0043-1745},
journal = {Weed Science},
month = {aug},
number = {4},
pages = {288--292},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Potential Impacts on the Growth and Toxicity of Poison Ivy (Toxicodendron radicans)}},
volume = {55},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Ziska2019,
abstract = {Background: Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes. Methods: For this retrospective data analysis, we did an extensive search for global datasets with 20 years or more of airborne pollen data that consistently recorded pollen season indices (eg, duration and intensity). 17 locations across three continents with long-term (approximately 26 years on average) quantitative records of seasonal concentrations of multiple pollen (aeroallergen) taxa met the selection criteria. These datasets were analysed in the context of recent annual changes in maximum temperature (T max ) and minimum temperature (T min ) associated with anthropogenic climate change. Seasonal regressions (slopes) of variation in pollen load and pollen season duration over time were compared to T max , cumulative degree day T max , T min , cumulative degree day T min , and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations. Findings: 12 (71{\%}) of the 17 locations showed significant increases in seasonal cumulative pollen or annual pollen load. Similarly, 11 (65{\%}) of the 17 locations showed a significant increase in pollen season duration over time, increasing, on average, 0{\textperiodcentered}9 days per year. Across the northern hemisphere locations analysed, annual cumulative increases in T max over time were significantly associated with percentage increases in seasonal pollen load (r=0{\textperiodcentered}52, p=0{\textperiodcentered}034) as were annual cumulative increases in T min (r=0{\textperiodcentered}61, p=0{\textperiodcentered}010). Similar results were observed for pollen season duration, but only for cumulative degree days (higher than the freezing point [0°C or 32°F]) for T max (r=0{\textperiodcentered}53, p=0{\textperiodcentered}030) and T min (r=0{\textperiodcentered}48, p=0{\textperiodcentered}05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0{\textperiodcentered}62, p=0{\textperiodcentered}008) and pollen season duration (r=0{\textperiodcentered}68, p=0{\textperiodcentered}003) when averaged for all 17 locations. Interpretation: Our findings reveal that the ongoing increase in temperature extremes (T min and T max ) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health—one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase. Funding: None.},
author = {Ziska, Lewis H. and Makra, L{\'{a}}szl{\'{o}} and Harry, Susan K. and Bruffaerts, Nicolas and Hendrickx, Marijke and Coates, Frances and Saarto, Annika and Thibaudon, Michel and Oliver, Gilles and Damialis, Athanasios and Charalampopoulos, Athanasios and Vokou, Despoina and Heiđmarsson, Starri and Guđjohnsen, Ell{\'{y}} and Bonini, Maira and Oh, Jae Won and Sullivan, Krista and Ford, Linda and Brooks, G. Daniel and Myszkowska, Dorota and Severova, Elena and Gehrig, Regula and Ram{\'{o}}n, Germ{\'{a}}n Dar{\'{i}}o and Beggs, Paul J. and Knowlton, Kim and Crimmins, Allison R.},
doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30015-4},
issn = {25425196},
journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},
month = {mar},
number = {3},
pages = {e124--e131},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
title = {{Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis}},
volume = {3},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zkhiri2019,
abstract = {Over the past decades, drought has become a major concern in Morocco due to the importance of agriculture in the economy of the country. In the present work, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used to monitor the evolution, frequency, and severity of droughts in the High Atlas basins (N'Fis, Ourika, Rh{\'{e}}raya, Zat, and R'dat), located south of Marrakech city. The spatiotemporal characterization of drought in these basins is performed by computing the SPI with precipitation spatially interpolated over the catchments. The Haouz plain, located downstream of these basins, is strongly dependent on water provided by the mountain ranges, as shown by the positive correlations between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the plain and the 3, 6, and 12-month SPI in the High Atlas catchments. On the opposite, no significant correlations are found with piezometric levels of the Haouz groundwater due to intensified pumping for irrigation in the recent decades. A relative SPI index was computed to evaluate the climate change impacts on drought occurrence, based on the projected precipitation (2006–2100) from five high-resolution CORDEX regional climate simulations, under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). These models show a decrease in precipitation towards the future up to − 65{\%} compared to the historical period. In terms of drought events, the future projections indicate a strong increase in the frequency of SPI events below − 2, considered as severe drought condition.},
author = {Zkhiri, Wiam and Tramblay, Yves and Hanich, Lahoucine and Jarlan, Lionel and Ruelland, Denis},
doi = {10.1007/s00704-018-2388-6},
file = {::},
issn = {0177-798X},
journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
month = {jan},
number = {1-2},
pages = {593--605},
publisher = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
title = {{Spatiotemporal characterization of current and future droughts in the High Atlas basins (Morocco)}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-018-2388-6},
volume = {135},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zolfaghari2016,
abstract = {Optimum use of water in agriculture, drinking, and industry is necessary in arid and semi-arid regions like Iran, which face serious water tensions. Since studying aridity and its trend of changes has a significant role in water resources management and urban planning, this research has investigated spatial and temporal changes and trend of aridity changes in Iran as an arid country. To study the issue, 51 weather stations of Iran which covered a 30-year statistical period (1981–2010) were selected. Climatic variables, namely precipitation, vapor pressure, local pressure, temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity and required data to calculate the potential evapotranspiration were extracted from Iran meteorology organization data. In next step by applying Ai, Im, and Iq aridity indices, zoning of the aridity was done after studying the aridity traits and its change. Then the most compatible aridity index was introduced according to the values of correlation between climatic factors of aridity indices and the magnitude of each main climatic area of Iran. Furthermore, in order to recognize aridity changes in Iran during the selected 30-year period, Mann-Kendal nonparametric test was used. Correlation analysis results showed that 35.4 and 64.6 {\%} of Iran arid areas show more compatibility with Im and Ai, respectively, which means that these indices are more appropriate to study aridity in arid regions of Iran. Also, it was revealed that 5.6 and 94.3 {\%} of Caspian south plain region has more compatibility with Ai and Iq indices, respectively. As a matter of fact, 77.8, 0.75, and 21.4 {\%} of the country area can be studied better by Ai, Iq, and Im, respectively. Also, the results of Mann-Kendal nonparametric test confirmed that aridity is developing in Iran. In other words, 80.4 {\%} of Iran area had increasing trend of aridity during the selected period and in just 19.6 {\%} of the area, aridity trend was not significant or decreasing.},
author = {Zolfaghari, Hasan and Masoompour, Jafar and Yeganefar, Maryam and Akbary, Mehry},
doi = {10.1007/s12517-016-2379-9},
file = {::},
issn = {1866-7511},
journal = {Arabian Journal of Geosciences},
month = {may},
number = {5},
pages = {375},
title = {{Studying spatial and temporal changes of aridity in Iran}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2379-9 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12517-016-2379-9},
volume = {9},
year = {2016}
}
@article{f11080802,
abstract = {This study analyzed fire weather and fire regimes in Central Asia from 2001–2015 and projected the impacts of climate change on fire weather in the 2030s (2021–2050) and 2080s (2071–2099), which would be helpful for improving wildfire management and adapting to future climate change in the region. The study area included five countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The study area could be divided into four subregions based on vegetation type: shrub (R1), grassland (R2), mountain forest (R3), and rare vegetation area (R4). We used the modified Nesterov index (MNI) to indicate the fire weather of the region. The fire season for each vegetation zone was determined with the daily MNI and burned areas. We used the HadGEM2-ES global climate model with four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) to project the future weather and fire weather of Central Asia. The results showed that the fire season for shrub areas (R1) was from 1 April to 30 November, for grassland (R2) was from 1 March to 30 November, and for mountain forest (R3) was from 1 April to 30 October. The daily burned areas of R1 and R2 mainly occurred in the period from June–August, while that of R3 mainly occurred in the April–June and August–October periods. Compared with the baseline (1971–2000), the mean daily maximum temperature and precipitation, in the fire seasons of study area, will increase by 14{\%}–23{\%} and 7{\%}–15{\%} in the 2030s, and 21{\%}–37{\%} and 11{\%}–21{\%} in the 2080s, respectively. The mean MNI will increase by 33{\%}–68{\%} in the 2030s and 63{\%}–146{\%} in the 2080s. The potential burned areas of will increase by 2{\%}–8{\%} in the 2030s and 3{\%}–13{\%} in the 2080s. Wildfire management needs to improve to adapt to increasing fire danger in the future.},
author = {Zong, Xuezheng and Tian, Xiaorui and Yin, Yunhe},
doi = {10.3390/f11080802},
issn = {1999-4907},
journal = {Forests},
month = {jul},
number = {8},
pages = {802},
title = {{Impacts of Climate Change on Wildfires in Central Asia}},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/8/802},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}
@article{Zscheischler2018,
abstract = {Floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts often result from a combination of interacting physical processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The combination of processes (climate drivers and hazards) leading to a significant impact is referred to as a ‘compound event'. Traditional risk assessment methods typically only consider one driver and/or hazard at a time, potentially leading to underestimation of risk, as the processes that cause extreme events often interact and are spatially and/or temporally dependent. Here we show how a better understanding of compound events may improve projections of potential high-impact events, and can provide a bridge between climate scientists, engineers, social scientists, impact modellers and decision-makers, who need to work closely together to understand these complex events.},
author = {Zscheischler, Jakob and Westra, Seth and van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M. and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Ward, Philip J. and Pitman, Andy and AghaKouchak, Amir and Bresch, David N. and Leonard, Michael and Wahl, Thomas and Zhang, Xuebin},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
keywords = {Climate,Energy and society,change impacts},
month = {jun},
number = {6},
pages = {469--477},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Future climate risk from compound events}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0156-3},
volume = {8},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Zubkova2019,
abstract = {Abstract While several studies have reported a recent decline in area burned in Africa, the causes of this decline are still not well understood. In this study, we found that from 2002 to 2016 burned area in Africa declined by 18.5{\%}, with the strongest decline (80{\%} of the area) in the Northern Hemisphere. One third of the reduction in burned area occurred in croplands, suggesting that changes in agricultural practices (including cropland expansion) are not the predominant factor behind recent changes in fire extent. Linear models that considered interannual variability in climate factors directly related to biomass productivity and aridity explained about 70{\%} of the decline in burned area in natural land cover. Our results provide evidence that despite the fact that most fires are human-caused in Africa, increased terrestrial moisture during 2002?2016 facilitated declines in fire activity in Africa.},
annote = {doi: 10.1029/2019GL083469},
author = {Zubkova, Maria and Boschetti, Luigi and Abatzoglou, John T and Giglio, Louis},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083469},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {Africa,climatic drivers,fire activity},
month = {jul},
number = {13},
pages = {7643--7653},
publisher = {John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd},
title = {{Changes in Fire Activity in Africa from 2002 to 2016 and Their Potential Drivers}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083469},
volume = {46},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Zulkafli2016,
abstract = {The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the Western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river. Using extreme value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 yr. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5{\%} and 12{\%} increases respectively for the 100 yr return floods). These findings agree with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amidst a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rainforest system over greater Amazonia.},
author = {Zulkafli, Zed and Buytaert, Wouter and Manz, Bastian and Rosas, Claudia V{\'{e}}liz and Willems, Patrick and Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo and Guyot, Jean-Loup and Santini, William},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014013},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {1},
pages = {14013},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014013},
volume = {11},
year = {2016}
}