Figure 4.10

Figure 4.10 |  Projected percentage changes in annual mean precipitation at global warming levels (GWLs) of 4°C (top), 2°C (middle) and 1.5°C (bottom) for the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble of GCMs driven by the SSP5-8.5 scenario. For any given GWL, similar ranges of changes are seen with other scenarios that reach that GWL, and the difference between scenarios is smaller than the ensemble uncertainty (Seneviratne et al., 2021). The distribution of outcomes is shown at local scales with the 5th, 50th and 95th percentile precipitation changes in individual grid boxes. Note that these are uncertainties at the individual point and are not spatially coherent, that is, they do not represent plausible global patterns of change. Results for 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C global warming are defined as 20-year means relative to 1850–1900 and use 40, 40 and 31 ensemble members, respectively, due to some members not reaching 4°C global warming.