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Figure 9.37 | Observed aggregate economic impacts and projected risks from climate change in Africa.

(a) Estimated effect of human-caused climate change on GDP per capita for 48 African countries between 1991 and 2010.

(b) Projected effect on GDP per capita of global warming of ~4°C by 2100 compared to economic growth with no further global warming after 2010.

(c) Projected percentage increase in GDP per capita of holding global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C above pre-industrial level.

(d) Probability of realising any economic benefits by holding warming to 1.5°C versus 2°C. Data sources: Burke et al. (2015b); (2018a); Diffenbaugh and Burke (2019).