Figure 2.5

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Figure caption

Figure 2.5 Global GHG emissions of modelled pathways (funnels in Panel a), and projected emission outcomes from near-term policy assessments for 2030 (Panel b). Panel a shows global GHG emissions over 2015–2050 for four types of assessed modelled global pathways:

  • Trend from implemented policies: Pathways with projected near-term GHG emissions in line with policies implemented until the end of 2020 and extended with comparable ambition levels beyond 2030 (29 scenarios across categories C5–C7, WGIII Table SPM.2);
  • Limit to 2°C (>67%) or return warming to 1.5°C (>50%) after a high overshoot, NDCs until 2030: Pathways with GHG emissions until 2030 associated with the implementation of NDCs announced prior to COP26, followed by accelerated emissions reductions likely to limit warming to 2°C (C3b, WGIII Table SPM.2) or to return warming to 1.5°C with a probability of 50% or greater after high overshoot (subset of 42 scenarios from C2, WGIII Table SPM.2).
  • Limit to 2°C (>67%) with immediate action: Pathways that limit warming to 2°C (>67%) with immediate action after 2020 (C3a, WGIII Table SPM.2).
  • Limit to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot: Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (C1, WGIII Table SPM.2 C1).
All these pathways assume immediate action after 2020. Past GHG emissions for 2010–2015 used to project global warming outcomes of the modelled pathways are shown by a black line. Panel b shows a snapshot of the GHG emission ranges of the modelled pathways in 2030 and projected emissions outcomes from near-term policy assessments in 2030 from WGIII Chapter 4.2 (Tables 4.2 and 4.3; median and full range). GHG emissions are CO2-equivalent using GWP100 from AR6 WGI. {WGIII Figure SPM.4, WGIII 3.5, 4.2, Table 4.2, Table 4.3, Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 4} (Table 3.1, CSB.2)