Figure 3.10

Probability ratio (PR) of exceeding (heavy precipitation) thresholds.

(a) PR of exceeding the 99th (blue) and 99.9th (red) percentile of pre-industrial daily precipitation at a given warming level, averaged across land (from Fischer and Knutti, 2015). (b) PR for precipitation extremes (RX1day) for different event probabilities (with RV indicating return values) in the current climate (1°C of global warming). Shading shows the interquartile (25–75%) range (from Kharin et al., 2018).