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Chapter 22.52.5.2

2.5.2.1Price of carbon emissions

… (see Figure 2.26) (high confidence). For instance, undiscounted values under a Higher-2°C pathway range from 15–220 USD2010 tCO2-eq −1 in 2030 , 45–1050 USD2010 tCO2-eq−1 in 2050, 120–1100 USD2010 tCO2-eq −1 in 2070 and 175–2340 USD2010 tCO2-eq−1 in 2100. On the contrary, …

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Chapter 22.5

2.5.1Policy Frameworks and Enabling Conditions

… sector-specific mitigation policies in industry, transportation and residential sectors are needed in the short run for emissions to peak in 2030 (Méjean et al., 2018). Stringent demand-side policies (e.g., tightened efficiency standards for buildings and appliances) driving the expansion, efficiency …

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Chapter 22.4

2.4.4Land-Use Transitions and Changes in the Agricultural Sector

… from residues and waste, but at lower shares. Land for second-generation energy crops (such as Miscanthus or poplar) expands by 2030 and 2050 in all available pathways that assume a cost-effective achievement of a 1.5°C temperature goal in 2100 (Figure 2.24), …

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Chapter 22.42.4.3

2.4.3.3Transport

… modes (IEA, 2017a). The share of low-carbon fuels in the total transport fuel mix increases to 10% and 16% by 2030 and to 40% and 58% by 2050 in 1.5°C-overshoot pathways from IAMs and the IEA-B2DS pathway, respectively. The IEA-B2DS scenario …

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Chapter 22.42.4.3

2.4.3.1Industry

… gCO2 MJ−1 by 2050, compared to 25 gCO2 MJ−1 in 2°C-consistent pathways. Considerable carbon intensity reductions are already achieved by 2030 , largely via a rapid phase-out of coal. Biomass becomes an increasingly important energy carrier in the industry sector in …

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Chapter 22.4

2.4.3Energy End-Use Sectors

… terms of energy carriers (electricity, liquids, gases, solids, hydrogen etc.). Figure 2.19 shows the structure of global final energy demand in 2030 and 2050, indicating the trend toward electrification and fossil fuel usage reduction. This trend is more significant in 1.5°C pathways …

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Chapter 22.42.4.2

2.4.2.1Evolution of primary energy contributions over time

Median (max, min) Count Primary Energy Supply (EJ) Share in Primary Energy (%) Growth (factor) 2020-2050 2020 2030 2050 2020

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Chapter 22.4

2.4.1Energy System Transformation

… that are available, however, show a faster decline in the carbon intensity of electricity generation and residual fuel mix by 2030 than most pathways that are projected to temporarily overshoot 1.5°C and return by 2100 (or 2°C pathways). The Below-1.5°C pathways …

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Chapter 2

2.4Disentangling the Whole-System Transformation

… demand side All end-use sectors show marked demand reductions beyond the reductions projected for 2°C pathways. Demand reductions from IAMs for 2030 and 2050 lie within the potential assessed by detailed sectoral bottom-up assessments. Section 2.4.3 Switching from fossil fuels to electricity in end-use …

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Chapter 22.3

2.3.5Implications of Near-Term Action in 1.5°C Pathways

… and higher transitional and long-term economic impacts (Clarke et al., 2014). The literature mainly focuses on delayed action until 2030 in the context of meeting a 2°C goal (den Elzen et al., 2010; van Vuuren and Riahi, 2011; Kriegler et …

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