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Chapter 22.32.3.4

2.3.4.1CDR technologies and deployment levels in 1.5°C pathways

… Ramp-up rates of individual CDR measures in 1.5°C-consistent pathways are provided in Table 2.4. BECCS deployment is still limited in 2030 , but ramps up to median levels of 3 (Below-1.5°C), 5 (1.5°C-low-OS) and 7 GtCO2 yr−1 (1.5°C-high-OS) in 2050, and …

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Chapter 22.32.3.3

2.3.3.2Emissions of short-lived climate forcers and fluorinated gases

… residual CH4 emissions until mid-century, with its relative share increasing from slightly below 50% in 2010 to around 55–70% in 2030 , and 60–80% in 2050 in 1.5°C-consistent pathways (interquartile range across 1.5°C-consistent pathways for projections). Many of the proposed measures …

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Chapter 22.32.3.3

2.3.3.1Emissions of long-lived climate forcers

… pathway classes are apparent, however. For instance, Below-1.5°C and 1.5°C-low-OS pathways show a clear shift towards lower CO2 emissions in 2030 relative to other 1.5°C and 2°C pathway classes, although in all 1.5°C classes reductions are clear (Figure 2.6). These lower …

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Chapter 22.3

2.3.3Emissions Evolution in 1.5°C Pathways

… Below-1.5°C class, as well as other classes with varying levels of projected overshoot (1.5°C-low-OS and 1.5°C-high-OS). First, aggregate-GHG benchmarks for 2030 are assessed. Subsequent sections assess long-lived climate forcers (LLCF) and short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) separately because they contribute in different …

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Chapter 22.32.3.2

2.3.2.2Pathways keeping warming below 1.5°C or temporarily overshooting it

… budget. It was estimated that the NDCs, if successfully implemented, imply a total of 400–560 GtCO2 emissions over the 2018– 2030 period (considering both conditional and unconditional NDCs) (Rogelj et al., 2016a). Thus, following an NDC trajectory would already exhaust …

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Chapter 22.32.3.2

2.3.2.1Variation in system transformations underlying 1.5°C pathways

… being more lenient about the amount of CO2 that continues to be produced in the above-mentioned end-use sectors (both by 2030 and mid-century) and strongly relying on technological CDR options like BECCS (S2 and S5 pathways in Figure 2.5) (Luderer et …

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Chapter 22.32.3.1

2.3.1.3Policy assumptions in 1.5°C pathways

… mitigation policy from 2020 to 2040, and a more short-term oriented and regionally diverse global mitigation policy, following NDCs until 2030 (Kriegler et al., 2018a; Luderer et al., 2018; McCollum et al., 2018; Rogelj et al., 2018; Strefler et al., 2018b)[reference …

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Chapter 22.22.2.2

2.2.2.2CO2 and non-CO2 contributions to the remaining carbon budget

… temperature uncertainty(1.) Recent emissions uncertainty(8.) 33rd 50th 67th [GtCO2] [GtCO2] [GtCO2] [GtCO2] [GtCO2] [GtCO2] 0.3 290 160 80 Budgets on the left are reduced by about ­–100 on centennial time scales 0.4 530 350 230 0.5 770 530 380 0.53 ~1.5°C 840 580 420 ±250 –400 to +200 +100 to +200 ±250 ±20 0.6 1010 710 530 0.63 1080 770 570 0.7 1240 900 680 0.78 1440 1040 800 0.8 1480 1080 830 0.9 1720 1260 980 1 1960 1450 1130 1.03 ~2°C 2030 1500 1170 1.1 2200 1630 1280 1.13 2270 1690 1320 1.2 2440 1820 1430

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Chapter 11.21.2.1

1.2.1.3Total versus human-induced warming and warming rates

… there is a substantial chance of GMST in a single month fluctuating over 1.5°C between now and 2020 (or, by 2030 , for a longer period: Henley and King, 2017), but this would not constitute temperatures ‘reaching 1.5°C’ on our …

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Chapter 11.1 Assessing the Knowledge Base for a 1.5°C Warmer World

1.1.3Sustainable Development and a 1.5°C Warmer World

… transformation. These pathways and connected strategies are framed within the context of sustainable development, and in particular the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (UN, 2015b) and Cross-Chapter Box 4 on SDGs (in this chapter). The feasibility of staying …

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