London Climate Week 2026, 25 June 2026
London Stock Exchange
Sustaining Capital Flows to Clean Energy and Nature in a Different Global Context
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Ladies and gentlemen,
As Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, I thank you for this opportunity to address the opening of the World Climate Investment Summit.
As someone who lives in and works from London, it’s a pleasure to see so much commitment on show during this year’s London Climate Action Week.
Let me start by reflecting on where we are in respect of climate change and climate action. It is now almost inevitable that global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the not-too-distant future.
According to the UN Environment Programme’s most recent Emissions Gap Report, which uses methodologies accepted by IPCC, the continuation of current policies will lead to warming of 2.8 degrees by the end of this century. On the slightly more optimistic side, the same report states that the implementation of all Nationally Determined Contributions would lead to warming of between 2.3 and 2.5 degrees. At best, if longer-term aspirations for net-zero emissions were to be met, peak warming could be limited to 1.9 degrees with temperatures falling afterwards if we take action to reduce emissions and we start to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
This is obviously deeply concerning. IPCC findings show that beyond 1.5 degrees of warming, risks start to accelerate with consequences such as heat stress – such as the heatwave experienced this week – more extreme weather events, flood risks, drought, the productivity of agriculture and fisheries, and threats to ecological systems. Many changes are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially those in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level. In particular, low-lying countries and regions face existential risks from sea level rise.
The risks we face are unprecedented. But so are the opportunities associated with adaptation and mitigation. Recent progress in terms of renewable energy and the electrification of energy demand has been extraordinary. Our Sixth Assessment report highlighted 80% reductions in the cost of solar PV and batteries for passenger electric vehicles since the turn of the century. Wind energy costs have also fallen substantially. Wind and solar energy together now account for more than 10% of global electricity supply. It is reported that renewables accounted for 85% of all new capacity additions to electricity systems in 2025.
Renewable energy obviously contributes to avoided carbon dioxide emissions. But renewable energy, complemented by the adoption of electric vehicles, also leads to health benefits from improved air quality in urban areas. And, as the IPCC Sixth Assessment report pointed out, a world of lower greenhouse gas emissions and zero carbon electricity, whether sourced from renewables or nuclear energy, is a world of greater energy self-sufficiency– a pertinent consideration in today’s troubled geopolitical situation.
However, the expansion of renewable sources of energy has been concentrated in just a few geographies: mainly China, Europe and North America. Progress in many parts of the world, including Africa and much of Asia, has been slower. The barriers here are not technological, but relate to policy and economics. Renewable energy technologies are capital-intensive, and the high cost of capital in many developing countries is an obstacle to progress. Further investment in infrastructure, including storage and grid inter-connection, is also needed to accommodate the expansion of variable renewable energy sources. Public policy has a role to play here through concessional financing that reduces investment risks and leverages private capital.
I would also flag that progress towards net-zero emissions extends beyond the energy sector. Patterns of land use and agricultural practices would also need to change. And here the distributed nature of decision-making poses even greater challenges.
Now, let me say a few words about adaptation to climate change. With global warming of 1.5-degrees imminent, it is obvious that there is an urgent need, not just to reduce emissions, which is essential, but also to enhance resilience and step up adaptation efforts. Too many countries face disaster risks that undermine people’s lives and livelihoods, destroy capital and inhibit growth.
Our Sixth Assessment Report concluded that progress in adaptation has been made across all sectors and regions. But that progress has been unevenly distributed, with obvious adaptation gaps. Most adaptation is fragmented, small in scale, incremental and, frankly, focused more on planning than on implementation. Many initiatives prioritise immediate and near-term climate risk reduction, which limits opportunities for transformational adaptation that cuts across government ministries and decision-making processes.
At IPCC, we are paying much more attention to adaptation in the current seventh assessment cycle. Our Working Group II report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability will, for the very first time, include chapters on finance and responses to losses and damages. Technical Guidelines on assessing impacts and adaptation, dating back to the 1990s, are being updated with special reference to indicators, metrics and methodologies. Mitigation benefits from having a single key indicator – tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. There are no equivalent indicators in the field of adaptation.
In addition, adaptation efforts tend to have a public-good character and are embedded in broader infrastructure investment and development activities. Only 1% of adaptation finance currently comes from private sources. The new finance chapter will consider opportunities for enhancing private sector engagement through, for example, insurance, addressing supply chain risks, especially in the food system, or contributions to early warning systems.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Before concluding, allow me a few thoughts on another relevant cross-cutting issue that is being addressed in the IPCC’s seventh cycle. The exceedance of the 1.5 degree warming level may be imminent, but it is still possible, in principle, to follow a so-called overshoot pathway, first exceeding a warming threshold such as 1.5 degrees, and then returning to below that level by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Global net zero emissions represent a first step on that journey.
IPCC will be addressing many knowledge gaps related to overshoot in the forthcoming reports. For example, we do not fully understand how the Earth system will respond to carbon dioxide removal and falling temperatures; we also need a better understanding of the extent to which specific climate impacts may be reversible or may involve passing tipping points.
Much work remains to be done with respect to emerging carbon dioxide removal techniques, such as, for example, Direct Air Capture of Carbon Dioxide, biochar, or the enhanced weathering of rocks.
To be clear, avoided deforestation and afforestation already contribute to carbon dioxide removal. But a wider spectrum of opportunities is becoming available. The next IPCC Working Group report on mitigation will devote an entire chapter to carbon dioxide removal. And our Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is developing a Methodology Report which will provide guidance on estimating atmospheric removals from emerging carbon dioxide removal technologies. This report is due for approval at an IPCC plenary session in Japan at the end of 2027. After that report is published, it will be possible to include novel carbon dioxide removal technologies in national greenhouse gas inventories and in cooperative approaches under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
At present, these technologies are at the demonstration or venture-capital stage, but, in the long term, there could be large commercial opportunities if the world pursues an overshoot pathway by reducing global warming following a temporary peak.
With that, let me conclude my remarks by thanking the organisers once again for the opportunity to address the summit. By virtue of IPCC’s unique capacity to assess and synthesise the vast and exponentially growing body of scientific knowledge on climate change and climate action, its inclusivity, its rigorous review processes, and its straddling of the scientific and policy worlds, IPCC is in a unique position to provide evidence and knowledge-based foundations for climate action. We stand ready to support decision-makers in both the public and private sectors.
Thank you.
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