Figure 4.5

Figure 4.5 | Comparison of simulated (by coupled climate models as in Section and observed global mean sea level change (GMSL) since 1901 (a) and since 1993 (b). The average estimate of 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations is shown in blue with the 5–95% uncertainty range shaded in blue and calculated according to the procedures in Church et al. (2013). The average of the 12 model estimates corrected for the bias in glaciers mass loss and Greenland surface mass balance (SMB) over 1900–1940 (see Section is shown in dashed blue. The estimates from tide gauge reconstructions is shown in other colours in panel a), with the 5–95% uncertainty range shaded in grey. The satellite altimetry observations from Legeais et al. (2018) is shown in black in panel b). GMSL from altimetry corrected for the TOPEX-A drift (Watson et al., 2015) in orange as well as the tide gauge reconstruction. The 5–95% uncertainty range is shaded in orange (Ablain et al., 2015). All curves in (a) represent anomalies in sea level with respect to the period 1986–2005 (i.e., with zero time-mean over the period 1986–2005) in order to be consistent with sea level projections in Section 4.2.3. Vertical lines indicate the occurrence of major volcanic eruptions, which cause temporary drops in GMSL. Updated from Slangen et al. (2017b).