Box TS.4, Figure 1

Summary of how well the current-generation climate models simulate important features of the climate of the 20th century. Confidence in the assessment increases towards the right as suggested by the increasing strength of shading. Model quality increases from bottom to top. The colour coding indicates improvements from the models available at the time of the AR4 to the current assessment. There have been a number of improvements since the AR4, and some some modelled quantities are not better simulated. The major climate quantities are listed in this summary and none shows degradation. The assessment is based mostly on the multi-model mean, not excluding that deviations for individual models could exist. Assessed model quality is simplified for representation in this figure; details of each assessment are found in Chapter 9. {9.8.1; Figure 9.44}

The figure highlights the following key features, with the sections that back up the assessment added in brackets:

(a) Trends in:

(b) Extremes:
Droughts Hurric-hr PR_ext PR_ext-hr PR_ext-t TAS_ext TAS_ext-t TC
Antarctic sea ice extent {9.4.3}
Arctic sea ice extent {9.4.3}
Global ocean carbon sink {9.4.5} Lower-stratospheric temperature {9.4.1.} Global land carbon sink {9.4.5}
Global ocean heat content {9.4.2} Total-column ozone {9.4.1}
Surface air temperature {9.4.1}
Tropical tropospheric temperature {9.4.1}
Droughts {9.5.4}
Year-to-year count of Atlantic hurricanes in high-resolution AGCMs {9.5.4} Global distribution of precipitation extremes {9.5.4}
Global distribution of precipitation extremes in high-resolution AGCMs {9.5.4} Global trends in precipitation extremes {9.5.4}
Global distributions of surface air temperature extremes {9.5.4}
Global trends in surface air temperature extremes {9.5.4}
Tropical cyclone tracks and intensity {9.5.4}
Tropical cyclone tracks and intensity in high-resolution AGCMs {9.5.4}

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