Figure TS.6

Radiative forcing (RF) and Effective radiative forcing (ERF) of climate change during the Industrial Era. (Top) Forcing by concentration change between 1750 and 2011 with associated uncertainty range (solid bars are ERF, hatched bars are RF, green diamonds and associated uncertainties are for RF assessed in AR4). (Bottom) Probability density functions (PDFs) for the ERF, for the aerosol, greenhouse gas (GHG) and total. The green lines show the AR4 RF 90% confidence intervals and can be compared with the red, blue and black lines which show the AR5 ERF 90% confidence intervals (although RF and ERF differ, especially for aerosols). The ERF from surface albedo changes and combined contrails and contrail-induced cirrus is included in the total anthropogenic forcing, but not shown as a separate PDF. For some forcing mechanisms (ozone, land use, solar) the RF is assumed to be representative of the ERF but an additional uncertainty of 17% is added in quadrature to the RF uncertainty. {Figures 8.15, 8.16}

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