Figure TS.21

Projections from process-based models with likely ranges and median values for global mean sea level (GMSL) rise and its contributions in 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 for the four RCP scenarios and scenario SRES A1B used in the AR4. The contributions from ice sheets include the contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamical change, which are also shown separately. The contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamics and anthropogenic land water storage are treated as having uniform probability distributions, and as independent of scenario (except that a higher rate of change is used for Greenland ice sheet outflow under RCP8.5). This treatment does not imply that the contributions concerned will not depend on the scenario followed, only that the current state of knowledge does not permit a quantitative assessment of the dependence. See discussion in Sections 13.5.1 and 13.5.3 and Supplementary Material for methods. Based on current understanding, only the collapse of the marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause GMSL to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. This potential additional contribution cannot be precisely quantified but there is medium confidence that it would not exceed several tenths of a metre during the 21st century. {Figure 13.10}

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