TFE.2, Figure 1

(a) The observed and modelled sea level for 1900 to 2010. (b) The rates of sea level change for the same period, with the satellite altimeter data shown as a red dot for the rate. (c) The observed and modelled sea level for 1961 to 2010. (d) The observed and modelled sea level for 1990 to 2010. Panel (e) com- pares the sum of the observed contributions (orange) and the observed sea level from the satellite altimeter data (red). Estimates of GMSL from different sources are given, with the shading indicating the uncertainty estimates (two standard deviations). The satellite altimeter data since 1993 are shown in red. The grey lines in panels (a)-(d) are the sums of the contributions from modelled ocean thermal expansion and glaciers (excluding glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic ice sheet), plus changes in land-water storage (see Figure 13.4). The black line is the mean of the grey lines plus a correction of thermal expansion for the omission of volcanic forcing in the Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) control experiments (see Section 13.3.1). The dashed black line (adjusted model mean) is the sum of the cor- rected model mean thermal expansion, the change in land water storage, the glacier estimate using observed (rather than modelled) climate (see Figure 13.4), and an illustrative long-term ice-sheet contribution (of 0.1 mm yr–1). The dotted black line is the adjusted model mean but now including the observed ice-sheet contributions, which begin in 1993. Because the observational ice-sheet estimates include the glaciers peripheral to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (from Section 4.4), the contribution from glaciers to the adjusted model mean excludes the peripheral glaciers (PGs) to avoid double counting. {13.3; Figure 13.7}

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