Figure TS.15

(Top left) Total global mean radiative forcing for the four RCP scenarios based on the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) energy balance model. Note that the actual forcing simulated by the CMIP5 models differs slightly between models. (Bottom left) Time series of global annual mean surface air temperature anomalies (relative to 1986–2005) from CMIP5 concentration-driven experiments. Projections are shown for each RCP for the multi-model mean (solid lines) and ±1.64 standard deviation (5 to 95%) across the distribution of individual models (shading), based on annual means. The 1.64 standard deviation range based on the 20 yr averages 2081–2100, relative to 1986–2005, are interpreted as likely changes for the end of the 21st century. Discontinuities at 2100 are due to different numbers of models performing the extension runs beyond the 21st century and have no physical meaning. Numbers in the same colours as the lines indicate the number of different models contributing to the different time periods. Maps: Multi-model ensemble average of annual mean surface air temperature change (compared to 1986–2005 base period) for 2016–2035 and 2081–2100, for RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean signal is less than one standard deviation of internal variability. Stippling indicates regions where the multi-model mean signal is greater than two standard deviations of internal variability and where 90% of the models agree on the sign of change. The number of CMIP5 models used is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. Further detail regarding the related Figures SPM.7a and SPM.8.a is given in the TS Supplementary Material. {Box 12.1; Figures 12.4, 12.5, 12.11; Annex I}

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