2.3. Anticipated Effects of Climate Change
This section outlines recent developments of methods and tools that are used
to anticipate the effects of climate changethe broad approaches to climate
change impact and vulnerability assessment. It considers future research and
development needs, particularly to facilitate more informed policy decisions.
Based on interviews with experts and reviews of impacts methodologies, seven
questions frame recent progress and needs for impacts methods and tools:
- What are the appropriate scales of analysis for impact assessments?
- What should be the baselines for comparison?
- How should integrated scenarios of climatic and socioeconomic change be
- What are the prospects for assessing the impacts of climatic extremes and
- How can transient effects be included in methods and tools?
- What is the recent progress in methods for assessing adaptive capacity?
- How can vulnerability be related to policies for reducing GHG emissions?
Conclusions are provided in the following subsections; the succeeding subsections
provide further insight.